Sample records for identify general trends

  1. Assessment of indexing trends with specific and general terms for herbal medicine.

    PubMed

    Bartol, Tomaz

    2012-12-01

    Concepts for medicinal plants are represented by a variety of associated general terms with specific indexing patterns in databases, which may not consistently reflect growth of records. The objectives of this study are to assess the development in databases by identifying general terms that describe herbal medicine with optimal retrieval recall and to identify possible special trends in co-occurrence of specific and general concepts. Different search strategies are tested in cab abstracts, medline and web of science. Specific terms (Origanum and Salvia) are employed. Relevant general terms (e.g. 'Plants, Medicinal', Phytotherapy, Herbal drugs) are identified, along with indexing trends and co-occurrences. Growth trends, in specific (narrower) terms, are similar among databases. General terms, however, exhibit dissimilar trends, sometimes almost opposing one another. Co-occurrence of specific and general terms is changing over time. General terms may not denote definite development of trends as the use of terms differs amongst databases, making it difficult to correctly assess possible numbers of relevant records. Perceived increase can, sometimes, be attributed to an increased occurrence of a more general term alongside the specific one. Thesaurus-controlled databases may yield more hits, because of 'up-posted' (broader) terms. Use of broader terms is helpful as it enhances retrieval of relevant documents. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

  2. General Achievement Trends: Alabama

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center on Education Policy, 2009

    2009-01-01

    This general achievement trends profile includes information that the Center on Education Policy (CEP) and the Human Resources Research Organization (HumRRO) obtained from states from fall 2008 through April 2009. Included herein are: (1) Bullet points summarizing key findings about achievement trends in that state at three performance…

  3. General Achievement Trends: New Hampshire

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center on Education Policy, 2009

    2009-01-01

    This general achievement trends profile includes information that the Center on Education Policy (CEP) and the Human Resources Research Organization (HumRRO) obtained from states from fall 2008 through April 2009. Included herein are: (1) Bullet points summarizing key findings about achievement trends in that state at three performance…

  4. Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

  5. Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

  6. [Trends among medical students towards general practice or specialization].

    PubMed

    Breinbauer K, Hayo; Fromm R, Germán; Fleck L, Daniela; Araya C, Luis

    2009-07-01

    A 60/40 ratio has been estimated as a country's ideal proportion between general practitioners and specialists. In Chile this proportion was 36/ 64 in 2004, exactly the opposite of the ideal. Trends towards specialization or general practice among medical students have not been thoughtfully studied. To assess trends among medical students towards becoming general practitioners or specialists, exploring associated factors. Descriptive survey of 822 first to seventh year medical students at the University of Chile, School of Medicine. Desired activity to pursue (general practice or specialization) after graduation and general orientations within clinical practice were explored. Fifty three percent of students desired to enter a specialization program. Only 20% would work as a general practitioner (27% were still indecisive). Furthermore, a trend in early years of medical training towards an integral medicine is gradually reversed within later years. Seventh year students give significantly more importance to specialization than to integral medicine (p <0.01). Ten percent of this opinion change is related to the emphasis given to specialized medicine in the teaching environment. Most students prefer to enter a specialization program immediately after finishing medical school. Moreover, there is a social trend, at least within the teacher-attending environment, promoting not only the desire to specialize, but a pro-specialist culture.

  7. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  8. Is it possible to identify a trend in problem/failure data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Church, Curtis K.

    1990-01-01

    One of the major obstacles in identifying and interpreting a trend is the small number of data points. Future trending reports will begin with 1983 data. As the problem/failure data are aggregated by year, there are just seven observations (1983 to 1989) for the 1990 reports. Any statistical inferences with a small amount of data will have a large degree of uncertainty. Consequently, a regression technique approach to identify a trend is limited. Though trend determination by failure mode may be unrealistic, the data may be explored for consistency or stability and the failure rate investigated. Various alternative data analysis procedures are briefly discussed. Techniques that could be used to explore problem/failure data by failure mode are addressed. The data used are taken from Section One, Space Shuttle Main Engine, of the Calspan Quarterly Report dated April 2, 1990.

  9. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  10. Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

  11. Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

  12. Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

    2013-01-01

    Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

  13. The Use of Citation Counting to Identify Research Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rothman, Harry; Woodhead, Michael

    1971-01-01

    The analysis and application of manpower statistics to identify some long-term international research trends in economic entomology and pest conrol are described. Movements in research interests, particularly towards biological methods of control, correlations between these sectors, and the difficulties encountered in the construction of a…

  14. Technology and Interactive Multimedia. Identifying Emerging Issues and Trends in Technology for Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashton, Ray

    As part of a 3-year study to identify emerging issues and trends in technology for special education, this paper addresses the role of interactive multimedia, especially the digital, optical compact disc technologies, in providing instructional services to special education students. An overview identifies technological and economic trends,…

  15. Research Facts on Homeschooling. General Facts and Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Brian D.

    2006-01-01

    This fact sheet presents the following general facts and trends. Homeschooling may be the fastest-growing form of education in the United States and it is also growing around the world in many nations. There are about 2 million homeschool students in the United States. There were an estimated 1.9 to 2.4 million children (in grades K to 12) home…

  16. Generalized trends in the formation energies of perovskite oxides.

    PubMed

    Zeng, ZhenHua; Calle-Vallejo, Federico; Mogensen, Mogens B; Rossmeisl, Jan

    2013-05-28

    Generalized trends in the formation energies of several families of perovskite oxides (ABO3) and plausible explanations to their existence are provided in this study through a combination of DFT calculations, solid-state physics analyses and simple physical/chemical descriptors. The studied elements at the A site of perovskites comprise rare-earth, alkaline-earth and alkaline metals, whereas 3d and 5d metals were studied at the B site. We also include ReO3-type compounds, which have the same crystal structure of cubic ABO3 perovskites except without A-site elements. From the observations we extract the following four conclusions for the perovskites studied in the present paper: for a given cation at the B site, (I) perovskites with cations of identical oxidation state at the A site possess close formation energies; and (II) perovskites with cations of different oxidation states at the A site usually have quite different but ordered formation energies. On the other hand, for a given A-site cation, (III) the formation energies of perovskites vary linearly with respect to the atomic number of the elements at the B site within the same period of the periodic table, and the slopes depend systematically on the oxidation state of the A-site cation; and (IV) the trends in formation energies of perovskites with elements from different periods at the B site depend on the oxidation state of A-site cations. Since the energetics of perovskites is shown to be the superposition of the individual contributions of their constituent oxides, the trends can be rationalized in terms of A-O and B-O interactions in the ionic crystal. These findings reveal the existence of general systematic trends in the formation energies of perovskites and provide further insight into the role of ion-ion interactions in the properties of ternary compounds.

  17. Automated data extraction from general practice records in an Australian setting: trends in influenza-like illness in sentinel general practices and emergency departments.

    PubMed

    Liljeqvist, Gösta T H; Staff, Michael; Puech, Michele; Blom, Hans; Torvaldsen, Siranda

    2011-06-06

    Influenza intelligence in New South Wales (NSW), Australia is derived mainly from emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital and intensive care admissions, which represent only a portion of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the population. A substantial amount of the remaining data lies hidden in general practice (GP) records. Previous attempts in Australia to gather ILI data from GPs have given them extra work. We explored the possibility of applying automated data extraction from GP records in sentinel surveillance in an Australian setting.The two research questions asked in designing the study were: Can syndromic ILI data be extracted automatically from routine GP data? How do ILI trends in sentinel general practice compare with ILI trends in EDs? We adapted a software program already capable of automated data extraction to identify records of patients with ILI in routine electronic GP records in two of the most commonly used commercial programs. This tool was applied in sentinel sites to gather retrospective data for May-October 2007-2009 and in real-time for the same interval in 2010. The data were compared with that provided by the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (PHREDSS) and with ED data for the same periods. The GP surveillance tool identified seasonal trends in ILI both retrospectively and in near real-time. The curve of seasonal ILI was more responsive and less volatile than that of PHREDSS on a local area level. The number of weekly ILI presentations ranged from 8 to 128 at GP sites and from 0 to 18 in EDs in non-pandemic years. Automated data extraction from routine GP records offers a means to gather data without introducing any additional work for the practitioner. Adding this method to current surveillance programs will enhance their ability to monitor ILI and to detect early warning signals of new ILI events.

  18. Workforce 2000 and the Mildly Handicapped. Identifying Emerging Issues and Trends in Technology for Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodward, John

    As part of a 3-year study to identify emerging issues and trends in technology for special education, this paper explores the changing nature of the workforce in relation to concurrent changes in education services for students with mild disabilities. Current trends are identified and projections for the next decade are offered, which include the…

  19. Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Smith, M. R.; Rogers, R. J.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Structures clearly traceable through bed rock are considered most reliable. Continuity, however, is frequently traceable through ranges and across adjoining sedimentary basins where changes in drainage, erosion pattern, soil color, or vegetation suggest that the basin sediments are extremely sensitive to underlying structures. Many large and continuous trends, too smeared by erosion to be visible on the ground or from aircraft photos, become quite evident at the scale of the ERTS-1 images. The study was made with little regard for surface geology. The trends have been retraced to separate and unidirectional sets. These are now being related to surface geology, geophysical studies, volcanic and intrusive centers, and areas of mineralization.

  20. SRS environmental air surveillance program 1954-2015: General trends

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abbott, K.; Jannik, T.

    The radiological monitoring program at SRS was established under the DuPont Company in June 1951 and was used as a measurement of the effectiveness of plant controls and as an authoritative record of environmental conditions surrounding the plant. It also served as a method of demonstrating compliance with applicable federal regulations and guidance. This document serves as a general summary of changes made specifically to the environmental air monitoring program since its inception, and a discussion of the general trends seen in the air monitoring program at SRS from 1954 to 2015. Initially, the environmental air surveillance program focused notmore » only on releases from SRS but also on fallout from various weapons testing performed through the end of 1978. Flypaper was used to measure the amount of fallout in the atmosphere during this period, and was present at each of the 10 monitoring stations. By 1959, all site stacks were included in the air monitoring program to determine their contribution to the airborne radioactivity onsite, and the number of air surveillance samplers rose to 18. This trend of an increased number of sampling locations continued to a peak of 35 sampling locations before shifting to a downward trend in the mid-1990s. In 1962, 4 outer-range samplers were placed in Savannah and Macon, GA, and in Greenville and Columbia, SC. Until 1976, air samplers were simply placed around the perimeter of the various operation locations (after 1959, this included stacks to determine their contribution to the airborne radioactivity), with the intent of creating as representative a distribution as possible of the air surrounding operations.« less

  1. Do HIV Prevalence Trends in ANC Surveillance Represent Trends in the General Population in the ART Era? The Case of Manicaland, East Zimbabwe

    PubMed Central

    Gregson, Simon; Dharmayat, Kanika; Pereboom, Monique; Takaruza, Albert; Mugurungi, Owen; Schur, Nadine; Nyamukapa, Constance A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective National estimates of HIV trends in generalised epidemics rely on HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance. We investigate whether HIV prevalence trends in ANC data reflect trends in men and women in the general population during the scale-up of anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods Trends in HIV prevalence in local ANC attendees and adults aged 15-49yrs in towns, agricultural estates, and villages were compared using five rounds of parallel ANC (N≈1,200) and general-population surveys (N≈10,000) and multi-variable log-linear regression. Changes in the age-pattern of HIV prevalence and the age-distribution of ANC attendees were compared with those in the general population. Age-specific pregnancy prevalence rates were compared by HIV infection and ART status. Results Cumulatively, from 1998-2000 to 2009-2011, HIV prevalence fell by 60.0% (95% CI, 51.1%-67.3%) in ANC surveillance data and by 34.3% (30.8%-37.7%) in the general population. Most of the difference arose following the introduction of ART (2006-2011). The estates and villages reflected this overall pattern but HIV prevalence in the towns was lower at local ANCs than in the general population, largely due to attendance by pregnant women from outlying (lower prevalence) areas. The ageing of people living with HIV in the general population (52.4% aged >35yrs, 2009-2011) was under-represented in the ANC data (12.6%) due to lower fertility in older and HIV-infected women. Conclusion After the introduction of ART in Manicaland, HIV prevalence declined more steeply in ANC surveillance data than in the general population. Models used for HIV estimates must reflect this change in bias. PMID:26372390

  2. Socioeconomic factors and mortality in emergency general surgery: trends over a 20-year period.

    PubMed

    Armenia, Sarah J; Pentakota, Sri Ram; Merchant, Aziz M

    2017-05-15

    Socioeconomic factors such as race, insurance, and income quartiles have been identified as independent risk factors in emergency general surgery (EGS), but this impact has not been studied over time. We sought to identify trends in disparities in EGS-related operative mortality over a 20-y period. The National Inpatient Sample was used to identify patient encounters coded for EGS in 1993, 2003, and 2013. Logistic regression models were used to examine the adjusted relationship between race, primary payer status, and median income quartiles and in-hospital mortality after adjusting for patients' age, gender, Elixhauser comorbidity score, and hospital region, size, and location-cum-teaching status. We identified 391,040 patient encounters. In 1993, Black race was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.20-1.53]) than White race, although this difference dissipated in subsequent years. Medicare, Medicaid, and underinsured patients had a higher odds of mortality than those with private insurance for the entire 20-y period; only the disparity in the underinsured decreased over time (1993, 1.63 [1.35-1.98]; 2013, 1.41 [1.20-1.67]). In 2003 (1.23 [1.10-1.38]) and 2013 (1.23 [1.11-1.37]), patients from the lowest income quartile were more likely to die after EGS than patients from the highest income quartile. Socioeconomic disparities in EGS-related operative morality followed inconsistent trends. Over time, while gaps in in-hospital mortality among Blacks and Whites have narrowed, disparities among patients belonging to lowest income quartile have worsened. Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries continued to experience higher odds of in-hospital mortality relative to those with private insurance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. General Trends of Dihedral Conformational Transitions in a Globular Protein

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Yinglong; Baudry, Jerome; Smith, Jeremy C.; McCammon, J. Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Dihedral conformational transitions are analyzed systematically in a model globular protein, cytochrome P450cam, to examine their structural and chemical dependences through combined conventional molecular dynamics (cMD), accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) and Adaptive Biasing Force (ABF) simulations. The aMD simulations are performed at two acceleration levels, using dihedral and dual boost, respectively. In comparison with cMD, aMD samples protein dihedral transitions ~2 times faster on average using dihedral boost, and ~3.5 times faster using dual boost. In the protein backbone, significantly higher dihedral transition rates are observed in the Bend, Coil and Turn flexible regions, followed by the β bridge and β sheet, and then the helices. Moreover, protein sidechains of greater length exhibit higher transition rates on average in the aMD-enhanced sampling. Sidechains of the same length (particularly Nχ = 2) exhibit decreasing transition rates with residues when going from hydrophobic to polar, then charged and aromatic chemical types. The reduction of dihedral transition rates is found to be correlated with increasing energy barriers as identified through ABF free energy calculations. These general trends of dihedral conformational transitions provide important insights into the hierarchical dynamics and complex free energy landscapes of functional proteins. PMID:26799251

  4. General trends of dihedral conformational transitions in a globular protein.

    PubMed

    Miao, Yinglong; Baudry, Jerome; Smith, Jeremy C; McCammon, J Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Dihedral conformational transitions are analyzed systematically in a model globular protein, cytochrome P450cam, to examine their structural and chemical dependences through combined conventional molecular dynamics (cMD), accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) and adaptive biasing force (ABF) simulations. The aMD simulations are performed at two acceleration levels, using dihedral and dual boost, respectively. In comparison with cMD, aMD samples protein dihedral transitions approximately two times faster on average using dihedral boost, and ∼ 3.5 times faster using dual boost. In the protein backbone, significantly higher dihedral transition rates are observed in the bend, coil, and turn flexible regions, followed by the β bridge and β sheet, and then the helices. Moreover, protein side chains of greater length exhibit higher transition rates on average in the aMD-enhanced sampling. Side chains of the same length (particularly Nχ = 2) exhibit decreasing transition rates with residues when going from hydrophobic to polar, then charged and aromatic chemical types. The reduction of dihedral transition rates is found to be correlated with increasing energy barriers as identified through ABF free energy calculations. These general trends of dihedral conformational transitions provide important insights into the hierarchical dynamics and complex free energy landscapes of functional proteins. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. General trends of dihedral conformational transitions in a globular protein

    DOE PAGES

    Miao, Yinglong; Baudry, Jerome; Smith, Jeremy C.; ...

    2016-02-15

    In this paper, dihedral conformational transitions are analyzed systematically in a model globular protein, cytochrome P450cam, to examine their structural and chemical dependences through combined conventional molecular dynamics (cMD), accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) and adaptive biasing force (ABF) simulations. The aMD simulations are performed at two acceleration levels, using dihedral and dual boost, respectively. In comparison with cMD, aMD samples protein dihedral transitions approximately two times faster on average using dihedral boost, and ~3.5 times faster using dual boost. In the protein backbone, significantly higher dihedral transition rates are observed in the bend, coil, and turn flexible regions, followed bymore » the β bridge and β sheet, and then the helices. Moreover, protein side chains of greater length exhibit higher transition rates on average in the aMD-enhanced sampling. Side chains of the same length (particularly Nχ = 2) exhibit decreasing transition rates with residues when going from hydrophobic to polar, then charged and aromatic chemical types. The reduction of dihedral transition rates is found to be correlated with increasing energy barriers as identified through ABF free energy calculations. In conclusion, these general trends of dihedral conformational transitions provide important insights into the hierarchical dynamics and complex free energy landscapes of functional proteins.« less

  6. Culture or Disorder? African American Children Identified as Having Behavioral/Emotional Disorders in Special Education. Data Trends #101

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Research and Training Center on Family Support and Children's Mental Health, 2004

    2004-01-01

    "Data Trends" reports present summaries of research on mental health services for children and adolescents and their families. The article summarized in this "Data Trends" describes the results of an ethnographic study of expressions of African American culture and coping styles among students identified as having behavioral/emotional disorders…

  7. Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

    2012-11-01

    Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.

  8. [Trends in suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice, 1983-2013].

    PubMed

    de Beurs, D P; Hooiveld, M; Kerkhof, A J F M; Korevaar, J C; Donker, G A

    2016-01-01

    We investigated trends in suicidal behaviour as reported by Dutch general practices from 1983 to 2013. Also, we analysed the relationship with patient characteristics and with the financial crisis of 2008. Retrospective observational study. We estimated age-adjusted and gender-specific trends in suicides (342) and attempted suicides (1614), as registered in 1983-2013 under ICPC code P77 by 40 Dutch general practices participating in the NIVEL Primary Care Database sentinel station. Secondary outcomes, on the basis of supplementary questions in the GP Information System (Huisartsen Informatie Systeem), were the relationship between suicidal behaviour, earlier treatments and patient characteristics. Also, we analysed separate frequencies for the periods 1983-2007 and 2008-2013. Join-point analyses revealed a significant rise in male suicides from 2008 (b = 0.32, SE = 0.1, p = 0.008), and an increase in male suicide attempts since 2009 (b = 0.19, SE = 0.04, p < 0.001). Female suicidal behaviour showed a steady decrease in 1989-2013: b = -0.03, SE = 0.007, p < 0.0001 for female suicide, b = -0.02, SE = 0.002, p < 0.001 for female attempts. Almost half of the suicidal patients had visited their GP one month before the event. In 31% of these patients, the GP had recognized suicidal behaviour. Since 2008, there was a rise in the male suicide rate while female suicide behaviour has continued to decline. Training in the early recognition of suicide ideation in depressive patients might improve suicide prevention in primary care.

  9. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  10. Identifying the nontechnical skills required of nurses in general surgical wards.

    PubMed

    Marshall, Dianne C; Finlayson, Mary P

    2018-04-01

    To identify the nontechnical skills (NTS) required of nurses in general surgical wards for safe and effective care. As the largest occupational group, nurses are in an ideal position to block the vulnerabilities of patient adverse events in a surgical ward. Previous studies in the surgical environment have identified the NTS required of nurses for safe care in operating rooms; however, these skills have not been identified for nurses in general surgical wards. A nonparticipant observational descriptive design was used. A purposive sample of 15 registered nurses was recruited from four surgical wards and observed for a full shift on a morning, afternoon or night shift. Nonparticipant observations were conducted using field notes to collect data. A coding frame was developed, and an inductive process was used to analyse the data. A taxonomy comprising seven NTS required of nurses in their roles in surgical ward teams emerged from the data analysis. They are communication, leadership and management, planning, decision-making, situation awareness, teamwork and patient advocacy. Patient care provided by general surgical nurses involved the seven identified key NTS. These particular NTS are an important component of safe nursing practice as they underpin the provision of safe and effective care for general surgical patients. Nurses block the trajectory of error by using NTS to address the vulnerabilities in the system that can lead to adverse patient events. Identifying general surgical nurses' NTS enables the development of teaching strategies that target the learning of those skills to achieve successful work outcomes and improve patient safety. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. VLSI Technology: Impact and Promise. Identifying Emerging Issues and Trends in Technology for Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayoumi, Magdy

    As part of a 3-year study to identify emerging issues and trends in technology for special education, this paper addresses the implications of very large scale integrated (VLSI) technology. The first section reviews the development of educational technology, particularly microelectronics technology, from the 1950s to the present. The implications…

  12. Survey identifies trends in equipment acquisitions.

    PubMed

    Anderson, H J

    1990-09-20

    Automated laboratory equipment, medical imaging equipment, and patient monitors top the list of hospitals' priorities for equipment acquisition during the next year. This is according to an exclusive survey sponsored by the Linc Group, Inc., Chicago, and Hospitals magazine. The new survey also found that equipment acquisitions are most often financed with internal funds and gifts; that equipment purchasing budgets are on the rise; and that executives believe that most equipment makes money for their hospitals. Find out what your peers have to say about anticipated trends in equipment acquisition and financing during the next year.

  13. Identifying the trends in wound-healing patents for successful investment strategies

    PubMed Central

    Gwak, Jae Ha

    2017-01-01

    Background Recently, the need for rapid wound-healing has significantly increased because of the increasing number of patients who are diagnosed with diabetes and obesity. These conditions have contributed to a surge in the number of patients with chronic wounds worldwide. Furthermore, many cost-effective wound-healing technologies have been developed in order to keep up with the increased demand. In this paper, we performed a quantitative study of the trends associated with wound-healing technologies using patent data. Methodology We analyzed the trends considering four different groups of patent applicants: firms, universities, research institutes, and individuals using a structural topic model. In addition, we analyzed the knowledge flow between patent applicants using citation analysis, and confirmed the role of applicants in the knowledge-flow network using k-means clustering. As a result, the primary wound-healing technology patents applied for by the four groups varied considerably, and we classified the roles of patent applicants were found in the knowledge-flow network. Conclusions Our results showed the organizations that are leading each area of wound-healing technology. Furthermore, from the results, we identified specific institutions that are efficient for spreading knowledge related to wound-healing technology based on the patents. This information can contribute to the planning of investment strategies and technology policies related to wound-healing. PMID:28306732

  14. Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

  15. Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rechenthin, Michael; Street, W. Nick

    2013-12-01

    By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the probability of price movement can be useful to high-frequency traders. Price movement was examined in trade-by-trade (tick) data along with temporal timespans between 1 s to 30 min for 52 one-week periods for one highly-traded stock. We hypothesize that much of the initial predictability of trade-by-trade (tick) data is due to traditional market dynamics, or the bouncing of the price between the stock’s bid and ask. Only after timespans of between 5 to 10 s does this cease to explain the predictability; after this timespan, two consecutive movements in the same direction occur with higher probability than that of movements in the opposite direction. This pattern holds up to a one-minute interval, after which the strength of the pattern weakens.

  16. A 10-year trend of dental treatments under general anesthesia of children in Taipei Veterans General Hospital.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yung-Pan; Hsieh, Chun-Yi; Hsu, Wen-Ting; Wu, Fu-Ya; Shih, Wen-Yu

    2017-04-01

    General anesthesia (GA) as a pediatric dental procedure is a well-established method of behavior management. However, studies of pediatric dentistry under GA have mostly focused on handicapped patients, and various retrospective studies in Taiwan have mainly reviewed only a limited number of years. The purpose of the present study was to report trends in pediatric dental treatment performed under GA over the past 10 years. A retrospective review of the hospital records of patients receiving dental treatment under GA from 2006 until 2015 was performed. The patients were divided into three age groups: < 3 years, 3-6 years, and > 6 years. A range of information including basic patient characteristics and types of dental treatment was identified and then analyzed. A total of 791 cases (< 3 years old: 65 cases, 3-6 years old: 492, > 6 years old: 235; 549 male, 242 female) were treated under GA. The case number was found to have increased from 94 during 2006-2007 to 238 during 2014-2015, with the increase being especially pronounced among those aged 3-6 years (2006-2007: 49, 2014-2015: 165). The most common treatments (extraction, restoration, and pulp therapy) were associated with multiple dental caries (684, 86.4%). The < 3-years-old group was characterized by the highest decayed, extracted, and filled surface and decayed, missing, and filled surface indices; the highest mean number of treated teeth; and the highest mean number of treated teeth by composite resin fillings. The 3-6-years-old group had the highest number of primary teeth extractions. The > 6-years-old group had the lowest mean number of treated teeth by stainless-steel crowns (SSCs) and fewest cases treated with pulp therapy. From 2011 onwards, the number of primary tooth extractions significantly increased, while in 2013, there was a crossover whereby the SSC count surpassed the composite resin filling count. Over the past 10 years, there has been an increased use of GA for pediatric dental

  17. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    PubMed

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p < 0.0001). We found increasing trends in collaboration and citation in both general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Finding and identifying the viral needle in the metagenomic haystack: trends and challenges

    PubMed Central

    Soueidan, Hayssam; Schmitt, Louise-Amélie; Candresse, Thierry; Nikolski, Macha

    2015-01-01

    Collectively, viruses have the greatest genetic diversity on Earth, occupy extremely varied niches and are likely able to infect all living organisms. Viral infections are an important issue for human health and cause considerable economic losses when agriculturally important crops or husbandry animals are infected. The advent of metagenomics has provided a precious tool to study viruses by sampling them in natural environments and identifying the genomic composition of a sample. However, reaching a clear recognition and taxonomic assignment of the identified viruses has been hampered by the computational difficulty of these problems. In this perspective paper we examine the trends in current research for the identification of viral sequences in a metagenomic sample, pinpoint the intrinsic computational difficulties for the identification of novel viral sequences within metagenomic samples, and suggest possible avenues to overcome them. PMID:25610431

  19. Identifying water-quality trends in the Trinity River, Texas, USA, 1969-1992, using sediment cores from Lake Livingston

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Metre, P.C.; Callender, E.

    1996-01-01

    Chemical analyses were done on cores of bottom sediment from three locations in Lake Livingston, a reservoir on the Trinity River in east Texas to identify trends in water quality in the Trinity River using the chemical record preserved in bottom sediments trapped by the reservoir. Sediment cores spanned the period from 1969, when the reservoir was impounded, to 1992, when the cores were collected. Chemical concentrations in reservoir sediment samples were compared to concentrations for 14 streambed sediment samples from the Trinity River Basin and to reported concentrations for soils in the eastern United States and shale. These comparisons indicate that sediments deposited in Lake Livingston are representative of the environmental setting of Lake Livingston within the Trinity River Basin. Vertical changes in concentrations within sediment cores indicate temporal trends of decreasing concentrations of lead, sodium, barium, and total DDT (DDT plus its metabolites DDD and DDE) in the Trinity River. Possible increasing temporal trends are indicated for chlordane and dieldrin. Each sediment-derived trend is related to trends in water quality in the Trinity River or known changes in environmental factors in its drainage basin or both.

  20. Retirement before Age 65 Is a Growing Trend in the Private Sector. Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Civil Service, Post Office and General Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    The General Accounting Office examined retirement age trends in the private sector to assist the Congress in its effort to devise a retirement system for Federal employees. The Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) was identified as a source of information about private sector retirement patterns. March 1974, 1979, and 1984 data were…

  1. The New Trends in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somyürek, Sibel

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to give a general review of existing literature on adaptive educational hypermedia systems and to reveal technological trends and approaches within these studies. Fifty-six studies conducted between 2002 and 2012 were examined, to identify prominent themes and approaches. According to the content analysis, the new technological…

  2. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

    2015-02-01

    In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  3. Regional aerosol trends over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002: identifying and attributing using satellite, surface, and model datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jongeward, A.; Li, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources can influence atmospheric variability and alter Earth's radiative balance through direct and indirect processes. Recently, policies targeting anthropogenic species (e.g. the Clean Air Act) have seen success in improving air quality. The anthropogenic contributions to the total aerosol loading and its spatiotemporal pattern/trend are anticipated to be altered. In this work the aerosol loading and trend over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002 are examined, a period of significant change due to anthropogenic emissions control measures within the U.S. Monthly mean data from satellite (MODIS), ground (AERONET, IMPROVE), and model (GOCART, MERRA) sources are employed. Two annual trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by MODIS are present: a -0.020 decade-1 trend in the mid-latitudes and a 0.015 decade-1 trend in the sub-tropics. Trends in GOCART species AOD reveal anthropogenic (natural) species as the likely driver of the mid-latitude (sub-tropical) trend. AERONET AOD trends confirm negative AOD trends at three upwind sites in the Eastern U.S. and IMPROVE particulate matter (PM) observations identifies the role of decreasing ammonium sulfate in the overall PM decrease. Meanwhile, an increasing AOD trend seen during summertime in the eastern sub-tropics is associated with dust aerosol from North Africa. A dust parameterization from Kaufman et al. (2005) allows for changes in the flux transport across the sub-tropics to be calculated and analyzed. Using MERRA reanalysis fields, it is hypothesized that amplified warming and increases in baroclinic instability over the Saharan desert may lead to increased dust mobilization and export from North Africa to the sub-tropical Atlantic. This study provides updated analysis through 2016.

  4. Merging K-means with hierarchical clustering for identifying general-shaped groups.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Anna D; Ghosh, Arka P; Maitra, Ranjan

    2018-01-01

    Clustering partitions a dataset such that observations placed together in a group are similar but different from those in other groups. Hierarchical and K -means clustering are two approaches but have different strengths and weaknesses. For instance, hierarchical clustering identifies groups in a tree-like structure but suffers from computational complexity in large datasets while K -means clustering is efficient but designed to identify homogeneous spherically-shaped clusters. We present a hybrid non-parametric clustering approach that amalgamates the two methods to identify general-shaped clusters and that can be applied to larger datasets. Specifically, we first partition the dataset into spherical groups using K -means. We next merge these groups using hierarchical methods with a data-driven distance measure as a stopping criterion. Our proposal has the potential to reveal groups with general shapes and structure in a dataset. We demonstrate good performance on several simulated and real datasets.

  5. Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O'Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.

    2009-09-30

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance tomore » support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.« less

  6. Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

    2016-12-01

    Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

  7. Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

    2018-02-01

    This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

  8. [Evaluation of PAE and AE for identifying generalized tracks using snakes in Hidalgo, Mexico].

    PubMed

    Montiel-Canales, Gustavo; Mayer-Goyenechea, Irene Goyenechea; Fernández Badillo, Leonardo; Castillo Cerón, Jesús M

    2016-12-01

    One of the most important concepts in Panbiogeography is the generalized track, which represents an ancestral biota fragmented by geological events that can be recovered through several methods, including Parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) and endemicity analysis (EA). PAE has been frequently used to identify generalized tracks, while EA is primarily designed to find areas of endemicity, but has been recently proposed for identifying generalized tracks as well. In this study we evaluated these methods to find generalized tracks using the distribution of the 84 snake species of Hidalgo. PAE found one generalized track from three individual tracks (Agkistrodon taylori, Crotalus totonacus and Pliocercus elapoides), supported by 89 % of Bootstrap, and EA identified two generalized tracks, with endemicity index values of 2.71-2.96 and 2.84-3.09, respectively. Those areas were transformed to generalized tracks. The first generalized track was retrieved from three individual tracks (Micrurus bernadi, Rhadinaea marcellae and R. quinquelineata), and the second was recovered from two individual tracks (Geophis mutitorques and Thamnophis sumichrasti). These generalized tracks can be considered a unique distribution pattern, because they resembled each other and agreed in shape. When comparing both methods, we noted that both are useful for identifying generalized tracks, and although they can be used independently, we suggest their complementary use. Nevertheless, to obtain accurate results, it is useful to consider theoretical bases of both methods, along with an appropriate choice of the size of the area. Results using small-grid size in EA are ideal for searching biogeographical patterns within geopolitical limits. Furthermore, they can be used for conservation proposals at state level where endemic species become irreplaceable, and where losing them would imply the extinction of unique lineages.

  9. Agricultural chemicals in Iowa's ground water, 1982-95: What are the trends?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koplin, Dana W.; Hallberg, George; Sneck-Fahrer, D. A.; Libra, Robert

    1997-01-01

    The Iowa Department of Natural Resources. Geological Survey Bureau: the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory; and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have been working together to address this question. As part of the Iowa Ground-Water Monitoring Program (IGWM). water samples have been collected from selected Iowa municipal wells since 1982. An examination of this data identified two trends: (1) concentrations of atrazine in Iowa's ground water generally were decreasing over time, and (2) concentrations of metolachlor generally were increasing. Continuing ground-water sampling can determine if these trends represent long-term changes in chemical concentrations.

  10. The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

  11. Trends in the first decade of 21st century healthcare utilisation in a rheumatoid arthritis cohort compared with the general population.

    PubMed

    Hagel, Sofia; Petersson, Ingemar F; Bremander, Ann; Lindqvist, Elisabet; Bergknut, Charlotte; Englund, Martin

    2013-07-01

    To study 21st century trends in healthcare utilisation by patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with the general population. Observational cohort study. Using Swedish healthcare register data, we identified 3977 Region Skåne residents (mean age in 2001, 62.7 years; 73% women) presenting with RA (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes M05 or M06) in 1998-2001. We randomly sampled two referents from the general population per RA patient matched for age, sex and area of residence. We calculated the year 2001-2010 trends for the annual ratio (RA cohort/referents) of the mean number of hospitalisations and outpatient clinic visits. By the end of the 10-year period, 62% of patients and 74% of referents were still alive and resident in the region. From 2001 to 2010, the ratio (RA cohort/referents) of the mean number of hospitalisations for men and women decreased by 27% (p=0.01) and 28% (p=0.004), respectively. The corresponding decrease was 29% (p=0.005) and 16% (p=0.004) for outpatient physician care, 34% (p=0.009) and 18% (p=0.01) for nurse visits, and 34% (p=0.01) and 28% (p=0.004) for physiotherapy. The absolute reduction in number of hospitalisations was from an annual mean of 0.79 to 0.69 in male patients and from 0.71 to 0.59 in female patients. The corresponding annual mean number of consultations in outpatient physician care by male and female RA patients changed from 9.2 to 7.7 and from 9.9 to 8.7, respectively. During the first decade of the 21st century, coinciding with increasing use of earlier and more active RA treatment including biological treatment, overall inpatient and outpatient healthcare utilisation by a cohort of patients with RA decreased relative to the general population.

  12. Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

    PubMed

    Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2013-06-01

    To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. [Birth rates evolution in Spain. Birth trends in Spain from 1941 to 2010].

    PubMed

    Andrés de Llano, J M; Alberola López, S; Garmendia Leiza, J R; Quiñones Rubio, C; Cancho Candela, R; Ramalle-Gómara, E

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse trends of births in Spain and its Autonomous Communities (CCAA) over a 70 year period (1941-2010). The crude birth rates per 1,000 inhabitants/year were calculated by CCAA using Joinpoint regression models. Change points in trend and annual percentage of change (APC) were identified. The distribution of 38,160,305 births between 1941 and 2010 shows important changes in trends both nationally and among the CCAA. There is a general pattern for the whole country, with 5 turning points being identified with changes in trend and annual percentage change (APC). Differences are also found among regions. The analysis of trends in birth rates and the annual rates of change should enable public health authorities to properly plan pediatric care resources in our country. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. General aviation technology assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1975-01-01

    The existing problem areas in general aviation were investigated in order to identify those which can benefit from technological payoffs. The emphasis was placed on acceptance by the pilot/passenger in areas such as performance, safety, handling qualities, ride quality, etc. Inputs were obtained from three sectors: industry; government; and user, although slanted toward the user group. The results should only be considered preliminary due to the small sample sizes of the data. Trends are evident however and a general methodology for allocating effort in future programs is proposed.

  15. Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, A. L.

    1983-01-01

    The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.

  16. Identifying unmet needs in older patients--nurse-GP collaboration in general practice.

    PubMed

    Williams, Ian D; O'Doherty, Lorna J; Mitchell, Geoffrey K; Williams, Karen E

    2007-09-01

    Australia's rapidly aging population has a high prevalence of chronic disease and disability, leading to an increased social and economic burden. The Enhanced Primary Care program seeks to reduce this burden by promoting preventive and coordinated care. This study aimed to identify unmet needs in community dwelling general practice patients aged 75 years and over through annual health assessments performed by a general practitioner-nurse team. Community dwelling patients of a large suburban general practice aged 75 years and over were invited to participate. Five hundred and forty-six consecutive, eligible patients were recruited. Data were collected by GP-nurse teams on physical and psychosocial variables using a combination of physical examination, self reporting, and rating scales. Fifty percent of the women and 25% of the men lived alone. Over 90% of participants reported one or more health problems, with musculoskeletal issues being most common. Men rated their health more poorly than women. Incontinence affected one-third of patients, mainly women. Women reported more psychological distress. There were age and gender differences in activities of daily living (ADL). Mobility, ADL, visual impairment, bowel problems, use of sleep medications and psychological wellbeing were strongly associated to self reported health. Health assessments were effective in identifying significant physical and psychosocial problems in older adults. The importance of such assessments is underscored by strong associations between various domains and perceived general health. Collaboration between a GP and a practice based community nurse represents a potential solution to identifying (and responding to) unmet physical and psychosocial needs to improve quality of life in community dwelling older adults.

  17. Identifying multiple influential spreaders based on generalized closeness centrality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Huan-Li; Ma, Chuang; Xiang, Bing-Bing; Tang, Ming; Zhang, Hai-Feng

    2018-02-01

    To maximize the spreading influence of multiple spreaders in complex networks, one important fact cannot be ignored: the multiple spreaders should be dispersively distributed in networks, which can effectively reduce the redundance of information spreading. For this purpose, we define a generalized closeness centrality (GCC) index by generalizing the closeness centrality index to a set of nodes. The problem converts to how to identify multiple spreaders such that an objective function has the minimal value. By comparing with the K-means clustering algorithm, we find that the optimization problem is very similar to the problem of minimizing the objective function in the K-means method. Therefore, how to find multiple nodes with the highest GCC value can be approximately solved by the K-means method. Two typical transmission dynamics-epidemic spreading process and rumor spreading process are implemented in real networks to verify the good performance of our proposed method.

  18. Palliative sedation in Dutch general practice from 2005 to 2011: a dynamic cohort study of trends and reasons.

    PubMed

    Donker, Gé A; Slotman, Frank G; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Francke, Anneke L

    2013-10-01

    Little is known about the quantity and reasons for use of palliative sedation in general practice. To gain more insight into the trends of and reasons for palliative sedation in Dutch general practice. Dynamic cohort study using registrations and questionnaire data of Dutch GPs. Method Data collected in the years from 2005 until 2011 in the Dutch Sentinel General Practice Network were analysed. Trends and reasons for use of palliative sedation were analysed using multilevel analyses to control for clustering of observations within general practices. From 2005-2011, 183 cases were reported from 56 general practices. The incidence of palliative sedation fluctuated between 33.7 per 100 000 patients in 2006 and 15.2 in 2011. No rise or decline during the period was observed. Palliative sedation was applied in 5.7% of all deaths and most frequently used in younger patients with cancer. The mean number of refractory symptoms was 2.6 (SD 1.2); pain (69.4%), dyspnoea (53.0%), and fear (39.3%). Patient involvement in decision making before the start of palliative sedation (87.4%) was less frequently present in patients suffering from cardiovascular or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in older patients compared to patients with cancer (P<0.05). Pending euthanasia requests were present in 20.8% of cases; the choice for palliative sedation in these cases was clearly motivated. Palliative sedation is performed in a small proportion of dying patients in Dutch general practice, without a rise or decline observed from 2005 to 2011. Patients with non-cancer diseases are less frequently involved in decision making than patients with cancer, possibly related to sudden deterioration.

  19. Where do human organs come from? Trends of generalized and restricted altruism in organ donations.

    PubMed

    Boas, Hagai

    2011-11-01

    The supply of human organs for transplantation is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Using data from 30 countries for the years 1995-2007, this paper suggests that organ supply today is more dependent on direct donations than on the collective organ pool. This trend is analyzed by studying different modes of altruism: "generalized altruism" relates to the procurement of organs through a one-for-all collectivized system of donations whereas "restricted altruism" relates to one-to-one donations with organs considered personal gifts. The data suggest that transplants are becoming less and less social goods and more and more personal gifts. This trend is documented and discussed in light of the linkage that social scientists hypothesize between altruism and social solidarity. Whereas altruism is conceived as generating social solidarity, the rise in direct organ donations restricts the effect of altruism to one-to-one interactions rather than one-for-all giving. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. [MODERN EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY MASTERING PRACTICAL SKILLS OF GENERAL PRACTITIONERS].

    PubMed

    Kovalchuk, L I; Prokopchuk, Y V; Naydyonova, O V

    2015-01-01

    The article presents the experience of postgraduate training of general practitioners--family medicine. Identified current trends, forms and methods of pedagogical innovations that enhance the quality of learning and mastering the practical skills of primary professionals providing care.

  1. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  2. National trends in minimally invasive and open operative experience of graduating general surgery residents: implications for surgical skills curricula development?

    PubMed

    Carson, Jeffrey S; Smith, Lynette; Are, Madhuri; Edney, James; Azarow, Kenneth; Mercer, David W; Thompson, Jon S; Are, Chandrakanth

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze national trends in minimally invasive and open cases of all graduating residents in general surgery. A retrospective analysis was performed on data obtained from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education logs (1999-2008) of graduating residents from all US general surgery residency programs. Data were analyzed using Mantel-Haenszel χ(2) tests and the Bonferroni adjustment to detect trends in the number of minimally invasive and open cases. Minimally invasive procedures accounted for an increasing proportion of cases performed (3.7% to 11.1%, P < .0001), with a proportional decrease in open cases. An increase in minimally invasive procedures with a proportional decrease in open procedures was noted in subcategories such as alimentary tract, abdominal, vascular, thoracic, and pediatric surgery (P < .0001). The results of this study demonstrate that general surgery residents in the United States are performing a greater number of minimally invasive and fewer open procedures for common surgical conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends in suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice 1983-2013: a retrospective observational study.

    PubMed

    de Beurs, Derek P; Hooiveld, Mariette; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Korevaar, Joke C; Donker, Gé A

    2016-05-10

    To analyse trends in suicidal behaviour as reported by the Dutch sentinel general practices from 1983 to 2013. Second, to examine the relationship between suicidal behaviour and several patient characteristics. Finally, to compare the relationship between suicidal behaviour and patient characteristics before (1983-2007) and after (2008-2013) the start of the crisis. 40 general practices in the Netherlands during the period 1983-2013. Patients with an ICPC code of P77 (suicide attempt). Primary outcomes were age-adjusted and gender-specific trends in reported suicides (342) and suicide attempts (1614). Secondary outcomes were the relationship between suicidal behaviour and age, household composition, history of depression, recognition of suicide ideation, treatment before the suicidal behaviour and contact within the past month before suicidal behaviour for the period 1983-2013. Additionally, separate frequencies for the periods 1983-2007 and 2008-2013 were presented. Join-point analyses revealed a significant rise in male suicides from 2008 (b=0.32, SE=0.1, p=0.008), and an increase in male suicide attempts since 2009 (b=0.19, SE=0.04, p<0.001). Female suicidal behaviour showed a steady decrease from 1989 to 2013(b=-0.03, SE=0.007, p<0.0001 for female suicide, b=-0.02, SE=0.002, p<0.001 for female attempts). Before 2007, a history of depression was reported in 65% (168/257) of the suicides. After the start of the recession, a depression was recognised in 44% (22/50) of the patients who died by suicide. Since 2008, there was a rise in the male suicide rate while female suicide behaviour has continued to decline. General practitioners less often reported a history of depression within patients who died due to suicide after 2007 than before. Training in the early recognition of suicide ideation in depressive patients might improve suicide prevention in primary care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a

  4. MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

    EPA Science Inventory

    The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

  5. Palliative sedation in Dutch general practice from 2005 to 2011: a dynamic cohort study of trends and reasons

    PubMed Central

    Donker, Gé A; Slotman, Frank G; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Francke, Anneke L

    2013-01-01

    Background Little is known about the quantity and reasons for use of palliative sedation in general practice. Aim To gain more insight into the trends of and reasons for palliative sedation in Dutch general practice. Design and setting Dynamic cohort study using registrations and questionnaire data of Dutch GPs. Method Data collected in the years from 2005 until 2011 in the Dutch Sentinel General Practice Network were analysed. Trends and reasons for use of palliative sedation were analysed using multilevel analyses to control for clustering of observations within general practices. Results From 2005–2011, 183 cases were reported from 56 general practices. The incidence of palliative sedation fluctuated between 33.7 per 100 000 patients in 2006 and 15.2 in 2011. No rise or decline during the period was observed. Palliative sedation was applied in 5.7% of all deaths and most frequently used in younger patients with cancer. The mean number of refractory symptoms was 2.6 (SD 1.2); pain (69.4%), dyspnoea (53.0%), and fear (39.3%). Patient involvement in decision making before the start of palliative sedation (87.4%) was less frequently present in patients suffering from cardiovascular or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in older patients compared to patients with cancer (P<0.05). Pending euthanasia requests were present in 20.8% of cases; the choice for palliative sedation in these cases was clearly motivated. Conclusion Palliative sedation is performed in a small proportion of dying patients in Dutch general practice, without a rise or decline observed from 2005 to 2011. Patients with non-cancer diseases are less frequently involved in decision making than patients with cancer, possibly related to sudden deterioration. PMID:24152481

  6. Virtual Reality and Its Potential Use in Special Education. Identifying Emerging Issues and Trends in Technology for Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodward, John

    As part of a 3-year study to identify emerging issues and trends in technology for special education, this paper addresses the possible contributions of virtual reality technology to educational services for students with disabilities. An example of the use of virtual reality in medical imaging introduces the paper and leads to a brief review of…

  7. Nightmares in the general population: identifying potential causal factors.

    PubMed

    Rek, Stephanie; Sheaves, Bryony; Freeman, Daniel

    2017-09-01

    Nightmares are inherently distressing, prevent restorative sleep, and are associated with a number of psychiatric problems, but have rarely been the subject of empirical study. Negative affect, linked to stressful events, is generally considered the key trigger of nightmares; hence nightmares have most often been considered in the context of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, many individuals with heightened negative affect do not have nightmares. The objective of this study was to identify mechanistically plausible factors, beyond negative affect, that may explain why individuals experience nightmares. 846 participants from the UK general population completed an online survey about nightmare occurrence and severity (pre-occupation, distress, and impairment), negative affect, worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, alcohol use, sleep duration, physical activity levels, PTSD symptoms, and stressful life events. Associations of nightmares with the putative predictive factors were tested controlling for levels of negative affect. Analyses were also repeated controlling for levels of PTSD and the recent occurrence of stressful life events. Nightmare occurrence, adjusting for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, and sleep duration (odds ratios 1.25-1.45). Nightmare severity, controlling for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, and paranoia (R 2 s: 0.33-0.39). Alcohol use and physical activity levels were not associated with nightmares. The study identifies a number of potential predictors of the occurrence and severity of nightmares. Causal roles require testing in future longitudinal, experimental, and treatment studies.

  8. Marketing Trends to Watch

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  9. Acupuncture in Australian general practice: trends in reimbursed acupuncture services from 1995 to 2011.

    PubMed

    Wardle, Jonathan Lee; Adams, Jon; Sibbritt, David William

    2013-03-01

    To ascertain the extent of and trends in the use of acupuncture in Australian general practice and the characteristics of patients receiving publicly subsidised acupuncture services from general practitioners (GPs). Secondary analysis of national patient Medicare data for claims by all non-specialist medical practitioners for Medicare Benefits Schedule items for an attendance where acupuncture was performed by a medical practitioner from 1995 to 2011. Use of acupuncture by GPs, patients' sex and age and the socioeconomic disadvantage index of GP's practice. There has been a 47.7% decline in the number of acupuncture claims by GPs per 100 000 population in the period from 1995 to 2011. Acupuncture claims were made by 3.4% of GPs in 2011. Women were almost twice as likely to receive acupuncture from a GP as men, and patients in urban areas were more than twice as likely to receive acupuncture from a GP as patients in rural areas. Acupuncture claims were highest in areas that were socioeconomically advantaged. Claims for reimbursement for acupuncture by GPs have declined significantly in Australian general practice even though the use of acupuncture by the Australian public has increased. This may be due to increased use of referrals or use of non-medical practitioners, barriers to acupuncture practice in general practice or non-specific factors affecting reimbursement for non-vocationally registered GPs.

  10. Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

  11. Visual Analysis among Novices: Training and Trend Lines as Graphic Aids

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Peter M.; Van Norman, Ethan R.; Christ, Theodore J.

    2017-01-01

    The current study evaluated the degree to which novice visual analysts could discern trends in simulated time-series data across differing levels of variability and extreme values. Forty-five novice visual analysts were trained in general principles of visual analysis. One group received brief training on how to identify and omit extreme values.…

  12. Trends and Correlates of Consenting to Provide Social Security Numbers: Longitudinal Findings from the General Social Survey (1993-2010)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jibum; Shin, Hee-Choon; Rosen, Zohn; Kang, Jeong-han; Dykema, Jennifer; Muennig, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Privacy and confidentiality are often of great concern to respondents answering sensitive questions posed by interviewers. Using the 1993-2010 General Social Survey, we examined trends in the provision of social security numbers (SSNs) and correlates of those responses. Results indicate that the rate of SSN provision has declined over the past…

  13. Integrating text mining, data mining, and network analysis for identifying genetic breast cancer trends.

    PubMed

    Jurca, Gabriela; Addam, Omar; Aksac, Alper; Gao, Shang; Özyer, Tansel; Demetrick, Douglas; Alhajj, Reda

    2016-04-26

    Breast cancer is a serious disease which affects many women and may lead to death. It has received considerable attention from the research community. Thus, biomedical researchers aim to find genetic biomarkers indicative of the disease. Novel biomarkers can be elucidated from the existing literature. However, the vast amount of scientific publications on breast cancer make this a daunting task. This paper presents a framework which investigates existing literature data for informative discoveries. It integrates text mining and social network analysis in order to identify new potential biomarkers for breast cancer. We utilized PubMed for the testing. We investigated gene-gene interactions, as well as novel interactions such as gene-year, gene-country, and abstract-country to find out how the discoveries varied over time and how overlapping/diverse are the discoveries and the interest of various research groups in different countries. Interesting trends have been identified and discussed, e.g., different genes are highlighted in relationship to different countries though the various genes were found to share functionality. Some text analysis based results have been validated against results from other tools that predict gene-gene relations and gene functions.

  14. Trends in suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice 1983–2013: a retrospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    Hooiveld, Mariette; Korevaar, Joke C; Donker, Gé A

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To analyse trends in suicidal behaviour as reported by the Dutch sentinel general practices from 1983 to 2013. Second, to examine the relationship between suicidal behaviour and several patient characteristics. Finally, to compare the relationship between suicidal behaviour and patient characteristics before (1983–2007) and after (2008–2013) the start of the crisis. Setting 40 general practices in the Netherlands during the period 1983–2013. Participants Patients with an ICPC code of P77 (suicide attempt). Primary and secondary outcomes Primary outcomes were age-adjusted and gender-specific trends in reported suicides (342) and suicide attempts (1614). Secondary outcomes were the relationship between suicidal behaviour and age, household composition, history of depression, recognition of suicide ideation, treatment before the suicidal behaviour and contact within the past month before suicidal behaviour for the period 1983–2013. Additionally, separate frequencies for the periods 1983–2007 and 2008–2013 were presented. Results Join-point analyses revealed a significant rise in male suicides from 2008 (b=0.32, SE=0.1, p=0.008), and an increase in male suicide attempts since 2009 (b=0.19, SE=0.04, p<0.001). Female suicidal behaviour showed a steady decrease from 1989 to 2013(b=−0.03, SE=0.007, p<0.0001 for female suicide, b=−0.02, SE=0.002, p<0.001 for female attempts). Before 2007, a history of depression was reported in 65% (168/257) of the suicides. After the start of the recession, a depression was recognised in 44% (22/50) of the patients who died by suicide. Conclusions Since 2008, there was a rise in the male suicide rate while female suicide behaviour has continued to decline. General practitioners less often reported a history of depression within patients who died due to suicide after 2007 than before. Training in the early recognition of suicide ideation in depressive patients might improve suicide prevention in primary care. PMID

  15. Critical differences between elective and emergency surgery: identifying domains for quality improvement in emergency general surgery.

    PubMed

    Columbus, Alexandra B; Morris, Megan A; Lilley, Elizabeth J; Harlow, Alyssa F; Haider, Adil H; Salim, Ali; Havens, Joaquim M

    2018-04-01

    The objective of our study was to characterize providers' impressions of factors contributing to disproportionate rates of morbidity and mortality in emergency general surgery to identify targets for care quality improvement. Emergency general surgery is characterized by a high-cost burden and disproportionate morbidity and mortality. Factors contributing to these observed disparities are not comprehensively understood and targets for quality improvement have not been formally developed. Using a grounded theory approach, emergency general surgery providers were recruited through purposive-criterion-based sampling to participate in semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Participants were asked to identify contributors to emergency general surgery outcomes, to define effective care for EGS patients, and to describe operating room team structure. Interviews were performed to thematic saturation. Transcripts were iteratively coded and analyzed within and across cases to identify emergent themes. Member checking was performed to establish credibility of the findings. A total of 40 participants from 5 academic hospitals participated in either individual interviews (n = 25 [9 anesthesia, 12 surgery, 4 nursing]) or focus groups (n = 2 [15 nursing]). Emergency general surgery was characterized by an exceptionally high level of variability, which can be subcategorized as patient-variability (acute physiology and comorbidities) and system-variability (operating room resources and workforce). Multidisciplinary communication is identified as a modifier to variability in emergency general surgery; however, nursing is often left out of early communication exchanges. Critical variability in emergency general surgery may impact outcomes. Patient-variability and system-variability, with focus on multidisciplinary communication, represent potential domains for quality improvement in this field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The Many Hazards of Trend Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Zhang, X.; Kimball, J. S.; Small, C.

    2014-12-01

    Given the awareness in the scientific community of global scale drivers such as population growth, globalization, and climatic variation and change, many studies seek to identify temporal patterns in data that may be plausibly related to one or more aspect of global change. Here we explore two questions: "What constitutes a trend in a time series?" and "How can a trend be misinterpreted?" There are manifold hazards—both methodological and psychological—in detecting a trend, quantifying its magnitude, assessing its significance, identifying probable causes, and evaluating the implications of the trend. These hazards can combine to elevate the risk of misinterpreting the trend. In contrast, evaluation of multiple trends within a biogeophysical framework can attenuate the risk of misinterpretation. We review and illustrate these hazards and demonstrate the efficacy of an approach using multiple indicators detecting significant trends (MIDST) applied to time series of remote sensing data products.

  17. Trends in the Global Small Satellite Ecosystem: Implications for Science Missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrens, J.; Lal, B.

    2017-12-01

    Activity in the small satellite industry has increased in the recent years. New actors and nations have joined the evolving market globally in both the private and public sector. Progress in the smallsat sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats. Advancements include the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and the deployment of inexpensive COTS parts. The emerging trends in the state of the art for smallsat technology, paired with planned smallsat constellation missions by both private and public actors, open the opportunity for new earth and remote sensing scientific endeavors. This presentation will characterize the drivers influencing the development of smallsat technology and the industry more generally. An overview will be provided for trends in the state of the art of smallsat technology, and secondary trends that influence the smallsat sector including infrastructure, demand, the satellite launch market, and the policy environment. These trends are mapped onto current and projected Earth observation needs, as identified by academic and governmental communities, to identify those that could be fulfilled by smallsats in the near and long term. A set of notional science missions that could be enabled, based on the various drivers identified, will be presented for both the near (3 years) and farther term (10 years).

  18. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  19. Trends in methodological differences

    Treesearch

    Daniel J. Stynes; Malcolm I. Bevins; Tommy L. Brown

    1980-01-01

    Inconsistency in data collection has confounded attempts to identify and forecast outdoor recreation trends. Problems are highlighted through an evaluation of the methods employed in national outdoor recreation participation surveys and projections. Recommendations are advanced for improving data collection, trend measurement, and forecasting within outdoor recreation...

  20. Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

    DOE PAGES

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

    2015-05-12

    Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

  1. Outcomes of Global Environmentalism: Longitudinal and Cross-National Trends in Chemical Fertilizer and Pesticide Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shorette, Kristen

    2012-01-01

    Previous research identifies changing world cultural norms as the impetus for a worldwide trend promoting environmentalism. However, the extent to which countries comply with the norms promoted and codified by environmental organizations and treaties has been less rigorously tested. Suspected noncompliance is generally explained as "decoupling"…

  2. Study of 300,486 individuals identifies 148 independent genetic loci influencing general cognitive function.

    PubMed

    Davies, Gail; Lam, Max; Harris, Sarah E; Trampush, Joey W; Luciano, Michelle; Hill, W David; Hagenaars, Saskia P; Ritchie, Stuart J; Marioni, Riccardo E; Fawns-Ritchie, Chloe; Liewald, David C M; Okely, Judith A; Ahola-Olli, Ari V; Barnes, Catriona L K; Bertram, Lars; Bis, Joshua C; Burdick, Katherine E; Christoforou, Andrea; DeRosse, Pamela; Djurovic, Srdjan; Espeseth, Thomas; Giakoumaki, Stella; Giddaluru, Sudheer; Gustavson, Daniel E; Hayward, Caroline; Hofer, Edith; Ikram, M Arfan; Karlsson, Robert; Knowles, Emma; Lahti, Jari; Leber, Markus; Li, Shuo; Mather, Karen A; Melle, Ingrid; Morris, Derek; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Palviainen, Teemu; Payton, Antony; Pazoki, Raha; Petrovic, Katja; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sargurupremraj, Muralidharan; Scholz, Markus; Smith, Jennifer A; Smith, Albert V; Terzikhan, Natalie; Thalamuthu, Anbupalam; Trompet, Stella; van der Lee, Sven J; Ware, Erin B; Windham, B Gwen; Wright, Margaret J; Yang, Jingyun; Yu, Jin; Ames, David; Amin, Najaf; Amouyel, Philippe; Andreassen, Ole A; Armstrong, Nicola J; Assareh, Amelia A; Attia, John R; Attix, Deborah; Avramopoulos, Dimitrios; Bennett, David A; Böhmer, Anne C; Boyle, Patricia A; Brodaty, Henry; Campbell, Harry; Cannon, Tyrone D; Cirulli, Elizabeth T; Congdon, Eliza; Conley, Emily Drabant; Corley, Janie; Cox, Simon R; Dale, Anders M; Dehghan, Abbas; Dick, Danielle; Dickinson, Dwight; Eriksson, Johan G; Evangelou, Evangelos; Faul, Jessica D; Ford, Ian; Freimer, Nelson A; Gao, He; Giegling, Ina; Gillespie, Nathan A; Gordon, Scott D; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Griswold, Michael E; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara B; Hartmann, Annette M; Hatzimanolis, Alex; Heiss, Gerardo; Holliday, Elizabeth G; Joshi, Peter K; Kähönen, Mika; Kardia, Sharon L R; Karlsson, Ida; Kleineidam, Luca; Knopman, David S; Kochan, Nicole A; Konte, Bettina; Kwok, John B; Le Hellard, Stephanie; Lee, Teresa; Lehtimäki, Terho; Li, Shu-Chen; Liu, Tian; Koini, Marisa; London, Edythe; Longstreth, Will T; Lopez, Oscar L; Loukola, Anu; Luck, Tobias; Lundervold, Astri J; Lundquist, Anders; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Martin, Nicholas G; Montgomery, Grant W; Murray, Alison D; Need, Anna C; Noordam, Raymond; Nyberg, Lars; Ollier, William; Papenberg, Goran; Pattie, Alison; Polasek, Ozren; Poldrack, Russell A; Psaty, Bruce M; Reppermund, Simone; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Rose, Richard J; Rotter, Jerome I; Roussos, Panos; Rovio, Suvi P; Saba, Yasaman; Sabb, Fred W; Sachdev, Perminder S; Satizabal, Claudia L; Schmid, Matthias; Scott, Rodney J; Scult, Matthew A; Simino, Jeannette; Slagboom, P Eline; Smyrnis, Nikolaos; Soumaré, Aïcha; Stefanis, Nikos C; Stott, David J; Straub, Richard E; Sundet, Kjetil; Taylor, Adele M; Taylor, Kent D; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Tzourio, Christophe; Uitterlinden, André; Vitart, Veronique; Voineskos, Aristotle N; Kaprio, Jaakko; Wagner, Michael; Wagner, Holger; Weinhold, Leonie; Wen, K Hoyan; Widen, Elisabeth; Yang, Qiong; Zhao, Wei; Adams, Hieab H H; Arking, Dan E; Bilder, Robert M; Bitsios, Panos; Boerwinkle, Eric; Chiba-Falek, Ornit; Corvin, Aiden; De Jager, Philip L; Debette, Stéphanie; Donohoe, Gary; Elliott, Paul; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Gill, Michael; Glahn, David C; Hägg, Sara; Hansell, Narelle K; Hariri, Ahmad R; Ikram, M Kamran; Jukema, J Wouter; Vuoksimaa, Eero; Keller, Matthew C; Kremen, William S; Launer, Lenore; Lindenberger, Ulman; Palotie, Aarno; Pedersen, Nancy L; Pendleton, Neil; Porteous, David J; Räikkönen, Katri; Raitakari, Olli T; Ramirez, Alfredo; Reinvang, Ivar; Rudan, Igor; Dan Rujescu; Schmidt, Reinhold; Schmidt, Helena; Schofield, Peter W; Schofield, Peter R; Starr, John M; Steen, Vidar M; Trollor, Julian N; Turner, Steven T; Van Duijn, Cornelia M; Villringer, Arno; Weinberger, Daniel R; Weir, David R; Wilson, James F; Malhotra, Anil; McIntosh, Andrew M; Gale, Catharine R; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Bressler, Jan; Lencz, Todd; Deary, Ian J

    2018-05-29

    General cognitive function is a prominent and relatively stable human trait that is associated with many important life outcomes. We combine cognitive and genetic data from the CHARGE and COGENT consortia, and UK Biobank (total N = 300,486; age 16-102) and find 148 genome-wide significant independent loci (P < 5 × 10 -8 ) associated with general cognitive function. Within the novel genetic loci are variants associated with neurodegenerative and neurodevelopmental disorders, physical and psychiatric illnesses, and brain structure. Gene-based analyses find 709 genes associated with general cognitive function. Expression levels across the cortex are associated with general cognitive function. Using polygenic scores, up to 4.3% of variance in general cognitive function is predicted in independent samples. We detect significant genetic overlap between general cognitive function, reaction time, and many health variables including eyesight, hypertension, and longevity. In conclusion we identify novel genetic loci and pathways contributing to the heritability of general cognitive function.

  3. International trends in health science librarianship part 17: a comparison of health science libraries with academic and research libraries.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Jeannette

    2015-12-01

    Over the last 4 years this Regular Feature has looked at trends in health science librarianship in the 21st century. Although there are still a few more regions to be covered in this series, this issue explores general trends in academic and research libraries with a view to discovering whether the trends identified for health science libraries are similar. Are health science libraries unique? Or do their experiences mirror those found in the wider world of academic and research libraries? © 2015 Health Libraries Group.

  4. Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis

    Treesearch

    Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Yide Li; Theodor D. Leininger; Gary Feng

    2017-01-01

    Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature...

  5. Recent Research Trends in Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reynolds, William M.; Sundberg, Norman D.

    1976-01-01

    As measured by references in Buros' Mental Measurement Yearbooks, recent trends in test research are measured. The 24 tests with the greatest number of publications are identified, and growth trends of 5 major tests are shown. (Author/DEP)

  6. Ozone Trend Detectability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, J. W. (Editor)

    1981-01-01

    The detection of anthropogenic disturbances in the Earth's ozone layer was studied. Two topics were addressed: (1) the level at which a trend in total ozoning is detected by existing data sources; and (2) empirical evidence in the prediction of the depletion in total ozone. Error sources are identified. The predictability of climatological series, whether empirical models can be trusted, and how errors in the Dobson total ozone data impact trend detectability, are discussed.

  7. Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Ayele, Dawit G; Zewotir, Temesgen; Mwambi, Henry

    2016-03-01

    In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The problem is similar in Ethiopia, but it shows a decrease over years. The 2000; 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey results were used for this work. The purpose of the study is to detect the pattern of under-five child mortality overtime. Indirect child mortality estimation technique is adapted to examine the under-five child mortality trend in Ethiopia. From the result, it was possible to see the trend of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The under-five child mortality shows a decline in Ethiopia. From the study, it can be seen that there is a positive correlation between mother and child survival which is almost certain in any population. Therefore, this study shows the trend of under-five mortality in Ethiopia and decline over time.

  8. Global land moisture trends: drier in dry and wetter in wet over land.

    PubMed

    Feng, Huihui; Zhang, Mingyang

    2015-12-11

    The "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" (DGDWGW) paradigm is widely accepted in global moisture change. However, Greve et al. have declared that this paradigm has been overestimated. This controversy leaves a large gap in the understanding of the evolution of water-related processes. Here, we examine the global moisture trends using satellite soil moisture for the past 35 years (1979-2013). Our results support those of Greve et al., although there are quantitative differences. Generally, approximately 30% of global land has experienced robust moisture trends (22.16% have become drier, and 7.14% have become wetter). Only 15.12% of the land areas have followed the DGDWGW paradigm, whereas 7.77% have experienced the opposite trend. A new finding is that there is a significant "drier in dry, wetter in wet" (DIDWIW) trend paradigm; 52.69% of the drying trend occurred in arid regions, and 48.34% of the wetter trend occurred in the humid regions. Overall, 51.63% of the trends followed the DIDWIW paradigm, and 26.93% followed the opposite trend. We also identified the DGDWGW and DIDWIW paradigms in low precipitation-induced arid regions in which the dry soil led to an increasing sensible heat flux and temperature and subsequently potential evapotranspiration.

  9. Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

  10. Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-07-01

    The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, ...

  11. Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Trends in the Missouri River Basin, 1993-2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sprague, Lori A.; Clark, Melanie L.; Rus, David L.; Zelt, Ronald B.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Davis, Jerri V.

    2007-01-01

    -flow-adjusted trends were split nearly equally between nonsignificant and downward. A substantial source of nitrite plus nitrate to these streams likely was ground water; because of the time required for ground water to travel to streams, there may have been a lag time between the implementation of some pollution-control strategies and improvement in stream quality, contributing to the nonsignificant trends in nitrite plus nitrate. There were more sites with downward non-flow-adjusted trends than flow-adjusted trends in both ammonia and total nitrogen concentrations, possibly a result of decreased surface runoff from nonpoint sources associated with the downward trends in streamflow. No strong relations between any of the nitrogen trends and changes in nutrient sources or landscape characteristics were identified. Although there were very few upward trends in nitrogen from 1993 to 2003, there were upward flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations at nearly one-half of the sites. At these sites, not only were pollution-control strategies not contributing to measurable decreases in total phosphorus concentrations, there was likely an increase in phosphorus loading on the land surface. There were fewer upward non-flow-adjusted than flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations; at the majority of sites, overall total phosphorus concentrations did not change significantly during this period. The preponderance of upward flow-adjusted trends and nonsignificant non-flow-adjusted trends indicates that in some areas of the Missouri River Basin, overall concentrations of total phosphorus would have been higher without the decrease in streamflow and the associated decrease in surface runoff during the study period. During the study period, phosphorus loads from fertilizer generally increased at over one-half of the sites in the basin. Upward flow-adjusted trends were related to increasing fertilizer use in the upstream drainage area, particularly in the 10 percent

  12. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  13. Trends in Instructional Technology and Distance Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abromitis, Jacky

    This paper discusses trends in instructional technology and distance education (ITDE). The most notable trends are the lack of funding and resources for technology training, the lack of administrative support for ITDE issues, and faculty who are reluctant to adopt technology and distance learning. This paper identifies seven emerging trends as…

  14. Recent Trends in General Education Design, Learning Outcomes, and Teaching Approaches. Key Findings from a Survey among Administrators at AAC&U Member Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of American Colleges and Universities, 2016

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes key findings from a national survey among chief academic officers at Association of American Colleges and Universities (AAC&U) member institutions and explores how institutions are defining common learning outcomes, trends related to general education design and the use of emerging, evidence-based teach­ing and learning…

  15. Dentists' perceptions of trends in restorative dentistry in the UK.

    PubMed

    Randall, Ros C; Vrijhoef, Matthijs M A; Wilson, Nairn H F

    2003-04-01

    To obtain responses to a questionnaire on likely trends in the clinical practice of restorative dentistry from a national sample of general dental practitioners (GDPs) who were principals of group practices in the UK. A panel of nine experts had been convened previously to define areas of trends in restorative dentistry in the UK and to formulate these into statements. Twenty trends were identified and framed into a 22-item questionnaire based on the trend statements. The questionnaire was sent to a national sample of 2800 principal dentists in group practices. Names of principal dentists were taken from the Yellow Pages directories, a group practice being defined as at least one principal dentist and one other practitioner. Levels of agreement for questionnaire scores of > or = 70% for all segments of a statement were taken as indicating a possible trend. Of the 2800 questionnaires sent out, 1448 were returned, a return rate of 52%. Of these, 1217 questionnaires were usable, an overall response rate of 44%. Good agreement was obtained for 14 statements (64%). The 14 trend statements that scored a level of good agreement were taken as indicating possible trends in dentistry in the UK as perceived by those GDPs who responded to the questionnaire. However, in view of the fact that the 1217 usable questionnaires received reflected the opinions of 10% of the principal dentists in group practice in the UK, this will not be representative of all principal dentists in practice. Nevertheless for the purposes of gaining some insight into trends in restorative dentistry, it could be considered to be of value.

  16. NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

  17. Emerging deforestation trends in tropical dry forests ecoregions of Mexico and Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portillo, C. A.; Cao, G.; Smith, V.

    2015-12-01

    Neotropical dry forests (TDF) have experienced an unprecedented deforestation that is leading to the loss of tropical biodiversity at a rapid pace, but information on deforestation dynamics in TDF is scarce. In this study, we present a sub-continental and national level assessment of TDF loss patterns in Mexico and Central America at high spatial and temporal resolution using remote sensing and GIS technologies. We used the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset published by Hansen et al. (2013) which shows results from time-series analysis of Landsat images in characterizing global forest extent and change from 2000 through 2013. We analyzed forest loss within and around mapped TDF cover mapped by Portillo-Quintero et al. 2010. In order to minimize errors in source data, we overlaid a 25 x 25 km grid on top of the regional dataset and conducted a cell by cell and country by country inspection at multiple scales using high resolution ancillary data. We identified trends in the clustering of space-time TDF deforestation data using ArcGIS, categorizing trends in: new, consecutive, intensifying, persistent, diminishing, sporadic, oscillating and historical hotspots (high frequency of deforestation events) and cold spots (low frequency of deforestation). In general, the region is experiencing less frequent deforestation events with a higher number of intensifying and new cold spots across TDF landscapes. However, an important number of intensifying and persistent hotspots exist so no general trend in forest loss was detected for the period 2001-2013, except for El Salvador which shows a significant decreasing trend in forest loss. Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala are the major sources of intensifying, persistent and new deforestation hot spots. These were identified in the southern pacific coast and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, northwestern Guatemala, both western and eastern Honduras and around Lake Nicaragua in Nicaragua.

  18. Emerging deforestation trends in tropical dry forests ecoregions of Mexico and Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Rodriguez, I. M.; Sievert, S. M.; Fogel, M. L.; Foustoukos, D.

    2014-12-01

    Neotropical dry forests (TDF) have experienced an unprecedented deforestation that is leading to the loss of tropical biodiversity at a rapid pace, but information on deforestation dynamics in TDF is scarce. In this study, we present a sub-continental and national level assessment of TDF loss patterns in Mexico and Central America at high spatial and temporal resolution using remote sensing and GIS technologies. We used the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset published by Hansen et al. (2013) which shows results from time-series analysis of Landsat images in characterizing global forest extent and change from 2000 through 2013. We analyzed forest loss within and around mapped TDF cover mapped by Portillo-Quintero et al. 2010. In order to minimize errors in source data, we overlaid a 25 x 25 km grid on top of the regional dataset and conducted a cell by cell and country by country inspection at multiple scales using high resolution ancillary data. We identified trends in the clustering of space-time TDF deforestation data using ArcGIS, categorizing trends in: new, consecutive, intensifying, persistent, diminishing, sporadic, oscillating and historical hotspots (high frequency of deforestation events) and cold spots (low frequency of deforestation). In general, the region is experiencing less frequent deforestation events with a higher number of intensifying and new cold spots across TDF landscapes. However, an important number of intensifying and persistent hotspots exist so no general trend in forest loss was detected for the period 2001-2013, except for El Salvador which shows a significant decreasing trend in forest loss. Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala are the major sources of intensifying, persistent and new deforestation hot spots. These were identified in the southern pacific coast and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, northwestern Guatemala, both western and eastern Honduras and around Lake Nicaragua in Nicaragua.

  19. Specialization and the Current Practices of General Surgeons

    PubMed Central

    Decker, Marquita R; Dodgion, Christopher M; Kwok, Alvin C; Hu, Yue-Yung; Havlena, Jeff A; Jiang, Wei; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Kent, K Craig; Greenberg, Caprice C

    2014-01-01

    Background The impact of specialization on the practice of general surgery has not been characterized. Our goal was to assess general surgeons’ operative practices to inform surgical education and workforce planning. Study Design We examined the practices of general surgeons identified in the 2008 State Inpatient and Ambulatory Surgery Databases of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) for three US states. Operations were identified using ICD-9 and CPT codes linked to encrypted physician identifiers. For each surgeon, total operative volume and the percentage of practice comprised of their most common operation were calculated. Correlation was measured between general surgeons’ case volume and the number of other specialists in a health service area. Results There were 1,075 general surgeons who performed 240,510 operations in 2008. The mean operative volume for each surgeon was 224 annual procedures. General surgeons performed an average of 23 different types of operations. For the majority of general surgeons, their most common procedure comprised no more than 30% of total practice. The most common operations, ranked by the frequency that they appeared as general surgeons’ top procedure, included: cholecystectomy, colonoscopy, endoscopy, and skin excision. The proportion of general surgery practice comprised of endoscopic procedures inversely correlated with the number of gastroenterologists in the health service area (Rho = - 0.50, p = 0.005). Conclusions Despite trends toward specialization, the current practices of general surgeons remain heterogeneous. This indicates a continued demand for broad-based surgical education to allow future surgeons to tailor their practices to their environment. PMID:24210145

  20. Specialization and the current practices of general surgeons.

    PubMed

    Decker, Marquita R; Dodgion, Christopher M; Kwok, Alvin C; Hu, Yue-Yung; Havlena, Jeff A; Jiang, Wei; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Kent, K Craig; Greenberg, Caprice C

    2014-01-01

    The impact of specialization on the practice of general surgery has not been characterized. Our goal was to assess general surgeons' operative practices to inform surgical education and workforce planning. We examined the practices of general surgeons identified in the 2008 State Inpatient and Ambulatory Surgery Databases of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for 3 US states. Operations were identified using ICD-9 and CPT codes linked to encrypted physician identifiers. For each surgeon, total operative volume and percentage of practice that made up their most common operation were calculated. Correlation was measured between general surgeons' case volume and the number of other specialists in a health service area. There were 1,075 general surgeons who performed 240,510 operations in 2008. The mean operative volume for each surgeon was 224 annual procedures. General surgeons performed an average of 23 different types of operations. For the majority of general surgeons, their most common procedure constituted no more than 30% of total practice. The most common operations, ranked by the frequency they appeared as general surgeons' top procedure, included cholecystectomy, colonoscopy, endoscopy, and skin excision. The proportion of general surgery practice composed of endoscopic procedures inversely correlated with the number of gastroenterologists in the health service area (rho = -0.50; p = 0.005). Despite trends toward specialization, the current practices of general surgeons remain heterogeneous. This indicates a continued demand for broad-based surgical education to allow future surgeons to tailor their practices to their environment. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A general model-based design of experiments approach to achieve practical identifiability of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models.

    PubMed

    Galvanin, Federico; Ballan, Carlo C; Barolo, Massimiliano; Bezzo, Fabrizio

    2013-08-01

    The use of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) models is a common and widespread practice in the preliminary stages of drug development. However, PK-PD models may be affected by structural identifiability issues intrinsically related to their mathematical formulation. A preliminary structural identifiability analysis is usually carried out to check if the set of model parameters can be uniquely determined from experimental observations under the ideal assumptions of noise-free data and no model uncertainty. However, even for structurally identifiable models, real-life experimental conditions and model uncertainty may strongly affect the practical possibility to estimate the model parameters in a statistically sound way. A systematic procedure coupling the numerical assessment of structural identifiability with advanced model-based design of experiments formulations is presented in this paper. The objective is to propose a general approach to design experiments in an optimal way, detecting a proper set of experimental settings that ensure the practical identifiability of PK-PD models. Two simulated case studies based on in vitro bacterial growth and killing models are presented to demonstrate the applicability and generality of the methodology to tackle model identifiability issues effectively, through the design of feasible and highly informative experiments.

  2. NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…

  3. Status and trends of U.S. pulpwood market.

    Treesearch

    Peter J. Ince

    2009-01-01

    Global trends in pulp, paper, and paperboard have deeply affected U.S. pulpwood markets since the late 1990s. Global trends included a shift of growth in paper and paperboard production from North America to Europe and Asia over the past decade. This trend was associated with generally slower growth in U.S. industrial production and displacement of growth in print...

  4. Australian health professionals' health website recommendation trends.

    PubMed

    Usher, Wayne T

    2011-08-01

    This study was concerned with indentifying motivations and trends associated with a health website recommendation from eight of Australia's major health professions to the health consumer. Health professions included in this study are: psychiatrists, general practitioners, social workers, dietitians, chiropractors, physiotherapists, optometrists and pharmacists. An online survey (www.limesurvey.org) was developed from a common set of questions negotiated between all eight health professions. Survey questions were constructed in an attempt to identify participants' reasons for or against recommending a health website to a patient. A 5-point scale (not, slightly, neutral, moderately, strongly) to measure influence was used throughout the question set. This study indicates that Australian general practitioners (GPs) were the highest Australian health professionals to undertake a health website recommendation (86%), followed by psychiatrists (80%), with the lowest being physiotherapists (42%) and optometrists (33%). A profile of the Australian health professional who recommends a health website is identified as male, aged above 50 years, has had more than 10 years experience, works in a major city, is in private practice and has patient numbers exceeding 500 in a 12-month period (2009). Recommendations from this study include the need to develop mechanisms that identify high-quality online medical information and the development and implementation of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) courses which up-skill health professionals concerning the recommendation of health websites for health care delivery.

  5. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  6. Trends in acceptance of euthanasia among the general public in 12 European countries (1981-1999).

    PubMed

    Cohen, Joachim; Marcoux, Isabelle; Bilsen, Johan; Deboosere, Patrick; van der Wal, Gerrit; Deliens, Luc

    2006-12-01

    We wanted to examine how the acceptance of euthanasia among the general public in Western Europe has changed in the last decades, and we wanted to look for possible explanations. We analysed data from the European Values Surveys, held in 1981, 1990, and 1999-2000 in 12 West European countries. In each country, representative samples of the general public were interviewed using the same structured questionnaire in all countries. Euthanasia was explained in the questionnaires as 'terminating the life of the incurably sick'. A total of 46 199 respondents participated in the surveys. A significant increase in acceptance of euthanasia could be observed in all countries except (West) Germany. While the average increase in euthanasia acceptance was 22%, the increase was particularly obvious in Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Sweden. Although changes in several characteristics of respondents, such as decrease in religious beliefs, rising belief in the right to self-determination, and (to a lesser extent) rise in levels of education, were associated with growing acceptance of euthanasia, they could only partly explain the increase of euthanasia acceptance over the years. An increase of euthanasia acceptance among the general public took place over the last two decades in almost all West European countries, possibly indicating a growing support for personal autonomy regarding medical end-of-life decisions. If this trend continues, it is likely to increase the public and political debate about the (legal) regulation of euthanasia under certain conditions of careful medical practice in several West European countries.

  7. Where have all the doctors gone? (2). Intraurban trends: changes in the geographic distribution of general practitioners in Auckland, 1980-7.

    PubMed

    Barnett, J R

    1991-08-14

    During the 1980s the Auckland metropolitan area increased its share of all general practitioners in New Zealand at a much faster rate than its share of the population, resulting in a high level of availability by 1987. In the light of such trends, neoclassical theory would predict a diffusion of general practitioners into areas with fewer doctors where there is less competition for patients. Data for 1980-7, however, indicates that for every FTE general practitioner who located in doctor poor areas of the city, 1.87 general practitioners continued to open practices in areas already well provided for. Or, for every extra consultation that took place in low income suburbs, 1.51 extra consultations occurred in more affluent localities. These results do not provide strong support for a market led diffusion of doctors into areas of need and any gains in increased equity appear to have been achieved at the expense of considerable inefficiency given the likely presence of induced demand.

  8. NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

  9. Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

    PubMed Central

    Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

  10. Current trends in lifestyle-related disease management by general practitioners: a report from the "Heart Care Network" groups.

    PubMed

    2009-01-01

    In Japan, it is believed that guidelines for lifestyle-related disease are used in routine clinical practice, however, there are few reports on the actual rate of healthcare conducted in accordance with these guidelines by general practitioners and on their usefulness in preventing cardiovascular events. Therefore, the Heart Care Network (HCN) groups were organized mainly by general practitioners treating lifestyle diseases in 62 areas of Japan. The HCN has collected data on lifestyle diseases in high-risk patients in routine practices and investigated management conditions, guideline target achievement rates and medication. Additionally, the incidence of cardiovascular events was assessed. We analyzed 14,064 cases. The lipid profile, blood pressure, glycemic control were significantly improved over the 3 years. The incidence of cardiovascular events were significantly reduced by the achievement of target LDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and hemoglobin A1c and even after adjustment for age, gender, history of myocardial infarction, the reduction of these lifestyle-related parameters remains significant. These results revealed the current trends in the healthcare activities of general practitioners, the management conditions for lifestyle diseases in CHD high-risk patients and their effects on reducing cardiovascular events.

  11. Trends in computer hardware and software.

    PubMed

    Frankenfeld, F M

    1993-04-01

    Previously identified and current trends in the development of computer systems and in the use of computers for health care applications are reviewed. Trends identified in a 1982 article were increasing miniaturization and archival ability, increasing software costs, increasing software independence, user empowerment through new software technologies, shorter computer-system life cycles, and more rapid development and support of pharmaceutical services. Most of these trends continue today. Current trends in hardware and software include the increasing use of reduced instruction-set computing, migration to the UNIX operating system, the development of large software libraries, microprocessor-based smart terminals that allow remote validation of data, speech synthesis and recognition, application generators, fourth-generation languages, computer-aided software engineering, object-oriented technologies, and artificial intelligence. Current trends specific to pharmacy and hospitals are the withdrawal of vendors of hospital information systems from the pharmacy market, improved linkage of information systems within hospitals, and increased regulation by government. The computer industry and its products continue to undergo dynamic change. Software development continues to lag behind hardware, and its high cost is offsetting the savings provided by hardware.

  12. Participation by women in developmental, social, cognitive, and general psychology: A context for interpreting trends in behavior analysis.

    PubMed

    McSweeney, Frances K; Parks, Craig D

    2002-01-01

    We examined participation by women in journals devoted to social, developmental, cognitive, and general psychology. Authorship and first authorship by women increased from 1978 to 1997 for most journals. Participation by women on the editorial staff did not keep pace with their increased authorship for social and developmental psychology. Based on these trends, women's participation decreased with increases in the selectivity of the position for social and developmental psychology (a glass ceiling). The development of a glass ceiling suggests that the contributions of men and women are not always treated equally (gender inequity). Because a similar glass ceiling was reported for journals in behavior analysis (McSweeney, Donahoe, & Swindell, 2000; McSweeney & Swindell, 1998), the causes of this inequity appear to be relatively widespread. The failure to find a glass ceiling for general and cognitive psychology suggests that the inequity might be reduced by subtle pressure for diversity in editorial positions and by adopting actions that encourage women to pursue research positions.

  13. Participation by women in developmental, social, cognitive, and general psychology: A context for interpreting trends in behavior analysis

    PubMed Central

    McSweeney, Frances K.; Parks, Craig D.

    2002-01-01

    We examined participation by women in journals devoted to social, developmental, cognitive, and general psychology. Authorship and first authorship by women increased from 1978 to 1997 for most journals. Participation by women on the editorial staff did not keep pace with their increased authorship for social and developmental psychology. Based on these trends, women's participation decreased with increases in the selectivity of the position for social and developmental psychology (a glass ceiling). The development of a glass ceiling suggests that the contributions of men and women are not always treated equally (gender inequity). Because a similar glass ceiling was reported for journals in behavior analysis (McSweeney, Donahoe, & Swindell, 2000; McSweeney & Swindell, 1998), the causes of this inequity appear to be relatively widespread. The failure to find a glass ceiling for general and cognitive psychology suggests that the inequity might be reduced by subtle pressure for diversity in editorial positions and by adopting actions that encourage women to pursue research positions. PMID:22478376

  14. Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John

    2018-01-01

    We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.

  15. Today's Recruitment Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sugarman, Joe

    1996-01-01

    Five trends in the creation of college student recruitment publications are identified: (1) using market research and marketing principles; (2) targeting specific groups; (3) honesty about campus personality and reputation; (4) cost-effectiveness; and (5) creativity in using effective copy and design. (MSE)

  16. [Identifying barriers to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in general practice: Qualitative study of 14 general practitioners in Paris].

    PubMed

    Niclot, J; Stansal, A; Saint-Lary, O; Lazareth, I; Priollet, P

    2018-05-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a silent pathology with often fatal consequences in case of rupture. AAA screening, recommended in France and many other countries, has shown its effectiveness in reducing specific mortality. However, AAA screening rate remains insufficient. To identify barriers to AAA screening in general practice. Qualitative study carried out during 2016 among general practitioners based in Paris. Fourteen physicians were included. Most of the barriers were related to the physician: unawareness about AAA and screening recommendations, considering AAA as a secondary question not discussed with the patient, abdominal aorta not included in cardiovascular assessment, no search for a familial history of AAA, AAA considered a question for the specialist, lack of time, lack of training, numerous screenings to propose, oversight. Some barriers are related to the patient: unawareness of the pathology and family history of AAA, refusal, questioning the pertinence of the doctor's comments, failure to respect the care pathway. Others are related to AAA: source of anxiety, low prevalence, rarity of complications. The remaining barriers are related to screening: cost-benefit and risk-benefit ratios, sonographer unavailability, constraint for the patient, overmedicalization. Information and training of general practitioners about AAA must be strengthened in order to optimize AAA screening and reduce specific mortality. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  17. Critical Thinking Skills among Elementary School Students: Comparing Identified Gifted and General Education Student Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kettler, Todd

    2014-01-01

    Education reform efforts, including the current adoption of Common Core State Standards, have increased attention to teaching critical thinking skills to all students. This study investigated the critical thinking skills of fourth-grade students from a school district in Texas, including 45 identified gifted students and 163 general education…

  18. Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1998-2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hickman, R. Edward; Gray, Bonnie J.

    2010-01-01

    Trends were determined in flow-adjusted values of selected water-quality characteristics measured year-round during water years 1998-2007 (October 1, 1997, through September 30, 2007) at 70 stations on New Jersey streams. Water-quality characteristics included in the analysis are dissolved oxygen, pH, total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. In addition, trend tests also were conducted on measurements of dissolved oxygen made only during the growing season, April to September. Nearly all the water-quality data analyzed were collected by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Ambient Surface-Water Quality Monitoring Network. Monotonic trends in flow-adjusted values of water quality were determined by use of procedures in the ESTREND computer program. A 0.05 level of significance was selected to indicate a trend. Results of tests were not reported if there were an insufficient number of measurements or insufficient number of detected concentrations, or if the results of the tests were affected by a change in data-collection methods. Trends in values of dissolved oxygen, pH, and total dissolved solids were identified using the Seasonal Kendall test. Trends or no trends in year-round concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 66 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 0 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in growing-season concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 65 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 4 stations were identified. Tests of pH values determined trends or no trends at 26 stations; decreases at 2 stations and increases at 3 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in total dissolved solids were reported for all 70 stations; decreases at 0 stations and increases at 24 stations were identified. Trends in total

  19. The existential dimension in general practice: identifying understandings and experiences of general practitioners in Denmark

    PubMed Central

    Assing Hvidt, Elisabeth; Søndergaard, Jens; Ammentorp, Jette; Bjerrum, Lars; Gilså Hansen, Dorte; Olesen, Frede; Pedersen, Susanne S.; Timm, Helle; Timmermann, Connie; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2016-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study is to identify points of agreement and disagreements among general practitioners (GPs) in Denmark concerning how the existential dimension is understood, and when and how it is integrated in the GP–patient encounter. Design A qualitative methodology with semi-structured focus group interviews was employed. Setting General practice setting in Denmark. Subjects Thirty-one GPs from two Danish regions between 38 and 68 years of age participated in seven focus group interviews. Results Although understood to involve broad life conditions such as present and future being and identity, connectedness to a society and to other people, the existential dimension was primarily reported integrated in connection with life-threatening diseases and death. Furthermore, integration of the existential dimension was characterized as unsystematic and intuitive. Communication about religious or spiritual questions was mostly avoided by GPs due to shyness and perceived lack of expertise. GPs also reported infrequent referrals of patients to chaplains. Conclusion GPs integrate issues related to the existential dimension in implicit and non-standardized ways and are hindered by cultural barriers. As a way to enhance a practice culture in which GPs pay more explicit attention to the patients’ multidimensional concerns, opportunities for professional development could be offered (courses or seminars) that focus on mutual sharing of existential reflections, ideas and communication competencies. Key pointsAlthough integration of the existential dimension is recommended for patient care in general practice, little is known about GPs’ understanding and integration of this dimension in the GP–patient encounter.The existential dimension is understood to involve broad and universal life conditions having no explicit reference to spiritual or religious aspects.The integration of the existential dimension is delimited to patient cases where life

  20. Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferguson, M. C.

    1982-01-01

    Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

  1. Publication trends in the medical informatics literature: 20 years of "Medical Informatics" in MeSH

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study is to identify publication output, and research areas, as well as descriptively and quantitatively characterize the field of medical informatics through publication trend analysis over a twenty year period (1987–2006). Methods A bibliometric analysis of medical informatics citations indexed in Medline was performed using publication trends, journal frequency, impact factors, MeSH term frequencies and characteristics of citations. Results There were 77,023 medical informatics articles published during this 20 year period in 4,644 unique journals. The average annual article publication growth rate was 12%. The 50 identified medical informatics MeSH terms are rarely assigned together to the same document and are almost exclusively paired with a non-medical informatics MeSH term, suggesting a strong interdisciplinary trend. Trends in citations, journals, and MeSH categories of medical informatics output for the 20-year period are summarized. Average impact factor scores and weighted average impact factor scores increased over the 20-year period with two notable growth periods. Conclusion There is a steadily growing presence and increasing visibility of medical informatics literature over the years. Patterns in research output that seem to characterize the historic trends and current components of the field of medical informatics suggest it may be a maturing discipline, and highlight specific journals in which the medical informatics literature appears most frequently, including general medical journals as well as informatics-specific journals. PMID:19159472

  2. Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

    2016-04-01

    We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

  3. Striking trends in the incidence of health problems in The Netherlands (2002-05). Findings from a new strategy for surveillance in general practice.

    PubMed

    Biermans, Marion C J; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Verheij, Robert A; de Bakker, Dinny H; de Vries Robbé, Pieter F; Zielhuis, Gerhard A

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed to detect striking trends based on a new strategy for monitoring public health. We used data over 4 years from electronic medical records of a large, nationally representative network of general practices. Episodes were either directly recorded by general practitioners (GPs) or were constructed using a new record linkage method (EPICON). The episodes were used to estimate raw morbidity rates for all codes of the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Multilevel Poisson regression models were used to analyse the trend over time for 15 health problems that showed an obvious change over time. Based on these models, we calculated adjusted incidence rates corrected for clustering, sex and age. During 2002-05, both men and women increasingly consulted the GP because of concern about a drug reaction, a change in faeces/bowel movements and urination problems. Men showed an increase in consultations for prostate problems and venereal diseases. The incidence of chronic internal knee derangement decreased for both sexes. Women consulted their GP less frequently about sterilization and fear of being pregnant. The strategy developed proved to be useful to detect trends across a short period of time. Changes in the health care market, such as the increasing availability of over-the-counter drugs and various large advertising campaigns for medications may explain some of the findings. The increasing incidence of health problems in the urogenital area deserves attention as it could reflect increases in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and urinary tract infections.

  4. Trends and Characteristics of Pediatric Dentistry Patients Treated under General Anesthesia.

    PubMed

    Rudie, Maxwell N; Milano, Michael M; Roberts, Michael W; Divaris, Kimon

    2018-05-11

    The aims of this study were to describe the demographic characteristics of pediatric dentistry patients undergoing dental rehabilitation under general anesthesia (DRGA) at UNC-Chapel Hill during the last 13 years and identify factors associated with multiple (1 versus 2 or more) DRGA visits during that timeframe. Administrative claims data were used to identify children and adolescents (age <18 years) who underwent DRGA between 1/1/2002 and 12/31/2014 at the UNC Hospitals system. Information on children's age, sex and all treatment-associated CDT codes were collected. Descriptive statistics and bivariate tests of association were used for data analyses. There were 4,413 DRGAs among 3,973 children (median age=4 years 8 months, males=55%) during the study period. The annual rate of DRGAs increased over time, peaking (n=447) in 2013. Overall, 9% of children had ≥2 visits with repeat rates up to 18%. There was no association between children's sex and receipt of one versus multiple DRGAs; however, craniofacial cases were more likely (p<0.0005) to have multiple DRGAs compared to non-craniofacial ones. DRGAs are on the increase-with the exception of craniofacial and special health care needs patients, multiple DRGAs may be reflective of sub-optimal adherence to preventive and continuing care recommendations.

  5. Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

    2016-08-19

    Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

  6. Quantitative Analysis of Technological Innovation in Knee Arthroplasty: Using Patent and Publication Metrics to Identify Developments and Trends.

    PubMed

    Dalton, David M; Burke, Thomas P; Kelly, Enda G; Curtin, Paul D

    2016-06-01

    Surgery is in a constant continuum of innovation with refinement of technique and instrumentation. Arthroplasty surgery potentially represents an area with highly innovative process. This study highlights key area of innovation in knee arthroplasty over the past 35 years using patent and publication metrics. Growth rates and patterns are analyzed. Patents are correlated to publications as a measure of scientific support. Electronic patent and publication databases were searched over the interval 1980-2014 for "knee arthroplasty" OR "knee replacement." The resulting patent codes were allocated into technology clusters. Citation analysis was performed to identify any important developments missed on initial analysis. The technology clusters identified were further analyzed, individual repeat searches performed, and growth curves plotted. The initial search revealed 3574 patents and 16,552 publications. The largest technology clusters identified were Unicompartmental, Patient-Specific Instrumentation (PSI), Navigation, and Robotic knee arthroplasties. The growth in patent activity correlated strongly with publication activity (Pearson correlation value 0.892, P < .01), but was growing at a faster rate suggesting a decline in vigilance. PSI, objectively the fastest growing technology in the last 5 years, is currently in a period of exponential growth that began a decade ago. Established technologies in the study have double s-shaped patent curves. Identifying trends in emerging technologies is possible using patent metrics and is useful information for training and regulatory bodies. The decline in ratio of publications to patents and the uninterrupted growth of PSI are developments that may warrant further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

    2000-01-01

    The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

  8. Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2011-02-01

    Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

  9. Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, Daniel J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

    2009-01-01

    Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon.The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use.There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had

  10. How Has Educational Expansion Shaped Social Mobility Trends in the United States?

    PubMed Central

    Pfeffer, Fabian T.; Hertel, Florian R.

    2015-01-01

    This contribution provides a long-term assessment of intergenerational social mobility trends in the United States across the 20th and early 21st century and assesses the determinants of those trends. In particular, we study how educational expansion has contributed to the observed changes in mobility opportunities for men across cohorts. Drawing on recently developed decomposition methods, we empirically identify the contribution of each of the multiple channels through which changing rates of educational participation shape mobility trends. We find that a modest but gradual increase in social class mobility can nearly exclusively be ascribed to an interaction known as the compositional effect, according to which the direct influence of social class backgrounds on social class destinations is lower among the growing number of individuals attaining higher levels of education. This dominant role of the compositional effect is also due to the fact that, despite pronounced changes in the distribution of education, class inequality in education has remained stable while class returns to education have shown no consistent trend. Our analyses also provide a cautionary tale about mistaking increasing levels of social class mobility for a general trend towards more fluidity in the United States. The impact of parental education on son's educational and class attainment has grown or remained stable, respectively. Here, the compositional effect pertaining to the direct association between parental education and son's class attainment counteracts a long-term trend of increasing inequality in educational attainment tied to parents' education. PMID:26306053

  11. Trending of Overboard Leakage of ISS Cabin Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaezler, Ryan N.; Cook, Anthony J.; Leonard, Daniel J.; Ghariani, Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) overboard leakage of cabin atmosphere is continually tracked to identify new or aggravated leaks and to provide information for planning of nitrogen supply to the ISS. The overboard leakage is difficult to trend with various atmosphere constituents being added and removed. Changes to nitrogen partial pressure is the nominal means of trending the overboard leakage. This paper summarizes the method of the overboard leakage trending and presents findings from the trending.

  12. Quantifying Main Trends in Lysozyme Nucleation: The Effect of Precipitant Concentration and Impurities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burke, Michael W.; Judge, Russell A.; Pusey, Marc L.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Full factorial experiment design incorporating multi-linear regression analysis of the experimental data allows the main trends and effects to be quickly identified while using only a limited number of experiments. These techniques were used to identify the effect of precipitant concentration and the presence of an impurity, the physiological lysozyme dimer, on the nucleation rate and crystal dimensions of the tetragonal form of chicken egg white lysozyme. Increasing precipitant concentration was found to decrease crystal numbers, the magnitude of this effect also depending on the supersaturation. The presence of the dimer generally increased nucleation. The crystal axial ratio decreased with increasing precipitant concentration independent of impurity.

  13. Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

  14. Trends that FCS Education Should Address: A Delphi Study Reveals Top 16

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Karen L.; Davis, Kimberlee

    2011-01-01

    This study used the Delphi method to identify trends of importance to family and consumer sciences (FCS) education. A panel of 21 FCS education experts identified 16 trends and evaluated them by importance, desirability, feasibility, and confidence in validity of the trend. Nutrition appeared as a top priority, followed by consumer economics. The…

  15. Institutional point-of-care glucometer identifies population trends in blood glucose associated with war.

    PubMed

    Boaz, Mona; Matas, Zipora; Chaimy, Tova; Landau, Zohar; Bar Dayan, Yosefa; Berlovitz, Yitzhak; Wainstein, Julio

    2013-11-01

    Acute physiological stress has been shown to impair glucose homeostasis. War is a period of acute psychological stress, and its effect on glucose control is unknown. In this study random point-of-care (POC) glucose levels were measured using an automated, institutional glucometer in hospitalized adult patients prior to versus during the Israeli Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012). Random POC glucose values measured with the institutional blood glucose monitoring system were obtained 1 week prior to the Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012) and compared with values to those obtained during the first 4 days of the war (November 14-17, 2012). In total, 3,573 POC glucose measures were included: 1,865 during the pre-war period and 1,708 during the campaign. POC glucose measures were significantly higher during the war compared with the week preceding the war: 9.7±4.7 versus 9.3±4.2 mmol/L (P=0.02). In a general linear model, period (pre-war vs. during war) persisted as a significant predictor of POC glucose even after controlling for age, sex, and department type (internal medicine vs. surgical). Acute stress, such as a wartime situation, is associated with a significant increase in random blood glucose values in a population of hospitalized adults. Long-term follow-up of the individuals hospitalized during these two periods can reveal differences in morbidity and mortality trends.

  16. Spatiotemporal patterns of High Mountain Asia's snowmelt season identified with an automated snowmelt detection algorithm, 1987-2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Taylor; Bookhagen, Bodo; Rheinwalt, Aljoscha

    2017-10-01

    High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade-1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes

  17. [Identifying ways to address the crisis facing a medical specialty: a case study of general surgery].

    PubMed

    Nirel, Nurit; Hendin, Ayala; Rabau, Micha

    2012-03-01

    In a previous study we defined criteria for a medical specialty in crisis' and measures to assess the scale of the problem, and possible resolutions suggested based on experience abroad. This study seeks to gain further knowledge by exploring how front-line Israeli surgeons envisage the problems and possible solutions. To identify ways to address the workforce crisis in general surgery (GS) white focusing on issues that can be dealt with at the department and the hospital levels. An action study of GS conducted in two stages: (1) Semi-structured interviews with 180 GS residents. (2) The use of the retrospective method of "Learning from success" in five general surgical departments recognized as "successful" in attracting residents and integrating them into the departments while providing high-level training. The factors attracting medical students to specialize in GS are presented along with the problems perceived by residents during their residency. AdditionaLLy, 12 general principles identified in the study are presented, which can be transmitted to and implemented by other GS departments. They are related to three key topics: the mode and quality of residency training; work schedules, departmental organization of work and departmental atmosphere; and the comportment of senior physicians. The value of implementing these principles should be weighed in terms of being identified as constituting "leverage for change". Study findings will facilitate recommendations on internal organizational/professional factors of attracting and integrating residents to the specialty and the department. The study can serve as a basis for similar action research in other medical specialties.

  18. Water-quality trends in the Scituate reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, 1983-2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Kirk P.

    2015-01-01

    Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half of the monitoring stations for WYs 1983-2012 and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Many upward trends in alkalinity also were identified for both the WYs 1983-2012 and for WYs 2003-12 periods and are likely related to the natural weathering of structures containing concrete or, in some cases, the application of lime or fertilizers on agriculture lands. Significant trends in chloride concentrations at most stations during WYs 1983-2012 were upward; however, results for WYs 2003-12 substantiate few significant upward trends and, in a few cases, downward trends were identified in several tributary drainage areas.

  19. Adoption Research: Trends, Topics, Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palacios, Jesus; Brodzinsky, David

    2010-01-01

    The current article provides a review of adoption research since its inception as a field of study. Three historical trends in adoption research are identified: the first focusing on risk in adoption and identifying adoptee-nonadoptee differences in adjustment; the second examining the capacity of adopted children to recover from early adversity;…

  20. Trends in stratospheric NO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A. N.

    2009-04-01

    Data of spectrometric ground-based measurements of stratospheric column NO2 contents at stations within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) are analyzed for linear trends. The trend analysis takes into account the NO2 seasonal variation, effects of the 11-year solar and geomagnetic activity cycles, effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, and the effects of the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. The latitudinal distributions of the annual and seasonal trends in NO2 have been obtained. The annual trends are mostly positive in the southern hemisphere middle and low latitudes and negative in the European sector of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. In the high and polar latitudes of the two hemispheres, the annual estimates of trends are mostly statistically insignificant. However, a positive NO2 trend is observed at 78°S in the Antarctic, while positive and negative trends are observed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes. The maximum positive and negative trends are about 10% per decade by module. Seasonal estimates of the trends differ generally from the annual estimates. At stations of Zvenigorod, Jungfraujoch (northern hemisphere middle latitudes), Lauder, and Macquarie Island (southern hemisphere middle latitudes) the signs of the NO2 trends do not depend on season, although the trend values vary with season. At other stations, trend values, their statistical significance, and even their signs can vary with season. Nitrogen oxides affects the photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone directly and indirectly, influencing the effectiveness of ozone destruction in the chlorine cycle. The observed significant trends in stratospheric NO2 should result in noticeable perturbations of the rates of ozone destruction in the nitrogen cycle. The sensitivities of photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone to long-term changes in stratospheric NO2 and chlorine are estimated using a

  1. Cardiovascular Events During General Elections In Bayamon, Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Pérez-Mercado, Arnaldo E.; Maldonado-Martínez, Gerónimo; del Rio, José Rivera; Mellado, Robert F. Hunter

    2013-01-01

    Emotional stress has been linked to acute coronary events. We examined whether the emotional response to elections in Puerto Rico induced a similar response. Methods We reviewed records at HIMA San Pablo Hospital (HIMASP) and Ramon Ruiz Arnau University Hospital (HURRA) in Bayamón and identified patients admitted with ICD-9 codes 410, 411, and 413 or corresponding diagnoses during a period surrounding the general elections and compared them with the same time period in non-election years. Results Cardiovascular events accounted for 3.24% of election-year admissions vs. 5.51% during non-election years in HURRA (p=0.036, N=37), while accounting for 2.86% of election-year admissions in HIMASP vs. 3.27% during non-election years (non-significant). Discussion There was a trend towards a lower rate of admission for cardiovascular events during general elections in both hospitals, reaching statistical significance at HURRA. Further study may elucidate reasons for this behavior and determine whether similar trends hold true in other populations. PMID:23875518

  2. How to Identify E-Learning Trends in Academic Teaching: Methodological Approaches and the Analysis of Scientific Discourses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Helge; Heise, Linda; Heinz, Matthias; Moebius, Kathrin; Koehler, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to introduce methodology and findings of a trend study in the field of e-learning. The overall interest of the study was the analysis of scientific e-learning discourses. What comes next in the field of academic e-learning? Which e-learning trends dominate the discourse at universities? Answering such…

  3. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  4. Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. Methods This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Results Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. Conclusions The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan. PMID:23009095

  5. Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chienhung; Chao, Hailun

    2012-09-25

    The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan.

  6. Social conditions and trends in southeast Alaska.

    Treesearch

    Rhonda Mazza; Linda E. Kruger

    2005-01-01

    In 1997, scientists at the Pacific Northwest Research Station initiated several social science studies in response to information gaps identified while developing the Tongass Land Management Plan. Results presented here summarize findings from studies of demographic trends and tourism trends in the region based on data available through 2002. Demographic...

  7. Historical trends in organochlorine compounds in river basins identified using sediment cores from reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Metre, P.C.; Callender, E.; Fuller, C.C.

    1997-01-01

    This study used chemical analyses of dated sediment cores from reservoirs to define historical trends in water quality in the influent river basins. This work applies techniques from paleolimnology to reservoirs, and in the process, highlights differences between sediment-core interpretations for reservoirs and natural lakes. Sediment cores were collected from six reservoirs in the central and southeastern United States, sectioned, and analyzed for 137Cs and organochlorine compounds. 137Cs analyses were used to demonstrate limited post-depositional mixing, to indicate sediment deposition dates, and to estimate sediment focusing factors. Relative lack of mixing, high sedimentation rates, and high focusing factors distinguish reservoir sediment cores from cores collected in natural lakes. Temporal trends in concentrations of PCBs, total DDT (DDT + DDD + DDE), and chlordane reflect historical use and regulation of these compounds and differences in land use between reservoir drainages. PCB and total DDT core burdens, normalized for sediment focusing, greatly exceed reported cumulative regional atmospheric fallout of PCBs and total DDT estimated using cores from peat hogs and natural lakes, indicating the dominance of fluvial inputs of both groups of compounds to the reservoirs.This study used chemical analyses of dated sediment cores from reservoirs to define historical trends in water quality in the influent river basins. This work applies techniques from paleolimnology to reservoirs, and in the process, highlights differences between sediment-core interpretations for reservoirs and natural lakes. Sediment cores were collected from six reservoirs in the central and southeastern United States, sectioned, and analyzed for 137Cs and organochlorine compounds. 137Cs analyses were used to demonstrate limited post-depositional mixing, to indicate sediment deposition dates, and to estimate sediment focusing factors. Relative lack of mixing, high sedimentation rates, and high

  8. Trends in camping participation

    Treesearch

    Wilbur F. LaPage; Dale P. Ragain; Dale P. Ragain

    1971-01-01

    Several years ago the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station began a long-term study of per-capita camping participation. The objectives of the research were to identify campers with increasing or decreasing camping participation and to determine the causes of those trends.

  9. National Trends in Trace Metals Concentrations in Ambient Particulate Matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, M. C.; Hafner, H. R.; Charrier, J. G.

    2007-12-01

    Ambient measurements of trace metals identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2006 were analyzed for long-term trends. Trace metals analyzed include lead, manganese, arsenic, chromium, nickel, cadmium, and selenium. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Trend periods were required to be at least five years. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time or spatially. In addition, routine ambient monitoring methods had method detection limits (MDLs) too high to adequately measure concentrations for trends analysis. Differences between measurement methods at urban and rural sites also confound trends analyses. Improvements in MDLs, and a better understanding of comparability between networks, are needed to better quantify trends in trace metal concentrations in the future.

  10. Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392

  11. Alarming Prevalence of Emergency Hypertension Levels in the General Public Identified by a Hypertension Awareness Campaign.

    PubMed

    Caligiuri, Stephanie P B; Austria, Jose Alejandro; Pierce, Grant N

    2017-03-01

    Hypertension is a major cause of mortality and morbidity today. The "silent" nature of hypertension makes it critical to determine its prevalence and its severity in the general public and to identify strategies to identify people unaware of its presence. A mobile hypertension awareness campaign was created to: (i) determine the prevalence and types of hypertension in an urban North American center, (ii) increase hypertension awareness, and (iii) identify reasons for lack of therapy adherence. Mobile clinics were provided at shopping malls, workplaces, hospitals, and community centres to measure blood pressure in the public. Blood pressure recordings were done on a voluntary basis. Of 1097 participants, 50% presented with high blood pressure which was higher than expected. Of particular clinical significance, an unexpectedly large number of participants (2%) exhibited a hypertensive urgency/emergency. Most of these people were not adherent to medications (if their hypertension was detected previously), were unaware of their hypertensive state, and/or unwilling to acknowledge or ignored the clinical significance of the extremely high blood pressure readings. Reasons for lack of adherence included: denial, being unaware of health consequences, and proper management of hypertension. A relatively large segment of an urban population lives unaware of severe emergency levels of hypertension. A public mobile hypertension clinic provides a valuable strategy for identifying hypertension in the general public and for knowledge translation of hypertension management. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2017. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  12. Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

  13. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  14. Global Trends in Language Learning in the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Sarah Elaine

    2010-01-01

    Today's language classroom is vastly different from that of the mid- to late 20th century. The study is a meta-analysis of recent research which provided the means to identify current and emerging trends in the field. Informed by this research, some identified trends that are shaping the 21st century language classroom are outdated practices such…

  15. A general method for the catalytic nazarov cyclization of heteroaromatic compounds.

    PubMed

    Malona, John A; Colbourne, Jessica M; Frontier, Alison J

    2006-11-23

    A general, catalytic method for efficient Nazarov cyclization of systems containing heteroaromatic components has been developed. Scandium triflate was identified as the most reactive promoter, and it was found that addition of lithium perchlorate was necessary for synthetically useful catalytic cyclizations. The method was used to synthesize a range of cyclopentanone-fused heteroaromatic systems in 36-97% yield, and the reactivity trends observed demonstrate the impact of polarization on cyclization efficiency. [reaction: see text].

  16. A Health Website Recommendation from Gold Coast General Practitioners to Their Patients: A Mixed Method Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Usher, Wayne

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: To identify health website recommendation trends by Gold Coast (Australia) general practitioners (GPs) to their patients. Method: A mixed method approach to data collection and analysis was employed. Quantitative data were collected using a prepaid postal survey, consisting of 17 questions, mailed to 250 (61 per cent) of 410 GPs on…

  17. Trends in hydrometeorological conditions and stream water organic carbon in boreal forested catchments.

    PubMed

    Sarkkola, Sakari; Koivusalo, Harri; Laurén, Ari; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Mattsson, Tuija; Palviainen, Marjo; Piirainen, Sirpa; Starr, Mike; Finér, Leena

    2009-12-15

    Temporal trends in stream water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and export were studied in 8 forested headwater catchments situated in eastern Finland. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to identify the trends and a mixed model regression analysis was used to describe how catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air and stream water temperatures, and atmospheric deposition) related to the variation in the concentration and export of stream water TOC. The 8 catchments varied in size from 29 to 494 ha and in the proportion of peatland they contained, from 8 to 70%. Runoff and TOC concentration were monitored for 15-29 years (1979-2006). Trends and variation in TOC levels were analysed from annual and seasonal time series. Mean annual TOC concentration increased significantly in seven of the eight catchments. The trends were the strongest in spring and most apparent during the last decade of the study period. The slopes of the trends were generally smaller than the variation in TOC concentration between years and seasons and between catchments. The annual TOC export showed no clear trends and values were largely determined by the temporal variability in runoff. Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend in two of the eight catchments. Mean annual air and stream water temperatures showed increasing trends, most clearly seen in the summer and autumn series. According to our modeling results, stream water temperature, precipitation and peatland percentage were the most important variables explaining annual and most seasonal TOC concentrations. The atmospheric deposition of SO4, NH4, and NO3 decreased significantly over the study period, but no significant link with TOC concentration was found. Precipitation was the main hydrometeorological driver of the TOC export. We concluded that stream water TOC concentrations and exports are mainly driven by catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological factors rather than

  18. Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

    PubMed Central

    Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of

  19. Gender Differences in Expressed Interests in Engineering-Related Fields ACT 30-Year Data Analysis Identified Trends and Suggested Avenues to Reverse Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iskander, E. Tiffany; Gore, Paul A., Jr.; Furse, Cynthia; Bergerson, Amy

    2013-01-01

    Historically, women have been underrepresented in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) fields both as college majors and in the professional community. This disturbing trend, observed in many countries, is more serious and evident in American universities and is reflected in the U.S. workforce statistics. In this article, we…

  20. Leprosy trends in Zambia 1991-2009.

    PubMed

    Kapata, Nathan; Chanda-Kapata, Pascalina; Grobusch, Martin Peter; O'Grady, Justin; Bates, Matthew; Mwaba, Peter; Zumla, Alimuddin

    2012-10-01

    To document leprosy trends in Zambia over the past two decades to ascertain the importance of leprosy as a health problem in Zambia. Retrospective study covering the period 1991-2009 of routine national leprosy surveillance data, published national programme review reports and desk reviews of in-country TB reports. Data reports were available for all the years under study apart from years 2001, 2002 and 2006. The Leprosy case notification rates (CNR) declined from 2.73/10 000 population in 1991 to 0.43/10 000 population in 2009. The general leprosy burden showed a downward trend for both adults and children. Leprosy case burden dropped from approximately 18 000 cases in 1980 to only about 1000 cases in 1996, and by the year 2000, the prevalence rates had fallen to 0.67/10 000 population. There were more multibacillary cases of leprosy than pauci-bacillary cases. Several major gaps in data recording, entry and surveillance were identified. Data on disaggregation by gender, HIV status or geographical origin were not available. Whilst Zambia has achieved WHO targets for leprosy control, leprosy prevalence data from Zambia may not reflect real situation because of poor data recording and surveillance. Greater investment into infrastructure and training are required for more accurate surveillance of leprosy in Zambia. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Rediscovering the Alcoholism Field: New Trends and Needs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dolan, Joseph S.

    1987-01-01

    Outlines trends developing in the alcoholism field including: youth, treatment, public policy, education, research, and the Rand Report. Identifies two needs: the need to look at the interrelationships of programs and trends and the need to foster an environment which does not tolerate drunkenness or intoxication. (Author/ABB)

  2. A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.

    2010-01-01

    Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

  3. Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

    2011-01-01

    Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

  4. Cancer Incidence and Survival Trends by Subtype Using Data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program, 1992-2013.

    PubMed

    Noone, Anne-Michelle; Cronin, Kathleen A; Altekruse, Sean F; Howlader, Nadia; Lewis, Denise R; Petkov, Valentina I; Penberthy, Lynne

    2017-04-01

    Background: Cancers are heterogeneous, comprising distinct tumor subtypes. Therefore, presenting the burden of cancer in the population and trends over time by these tumor subtypes is important to identify patterns and differences in the occurrence of these subtypes, especially to generalize findings to the U.S. general population. Methods: Using SEER Cancer Registry Data, we present incidence rates according to subtypes for diagnosis years (1992-2013) among men and women for five major cancer sites: breast (female only), esophagus, kidney and renal pelvis, lung and bronchus, and thyroid. We also describe estimates of 5-year relative survival according to subtypes and diagnosis year (1992-2008). We used Joinpoint models to identify years when incidence rate trends changed slope. Finally, recent 5-year age-adjusted incidence rates (2009-2013) are presented for each subtype by race and age. Results: Hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative was the most common subtype (about 74%) of breast cancers. Adenocarcinoma made up about 69% of esophagus cases among men. Adenocarcinoma also is the most common lung subtype (43% in men and 52% in women). Ninety percent of thyroid subtypes were papillary. Distinct incidence and survival patterns emerged by these subtypes over time among men and women. Conclusions: Histologic or molecular subtype revealed different incidence and/or survival trends that are masked when cancer is considered as a single disease on the basis of anatomic site. Impact: Presenting incidence and survival trends by subtype, whenever possible, is critical to provide more detailed and meaningful data to patients, providers, and the public. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(4); 632-41. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  5. 34 CFR 222.39 - How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local educational agencies for...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ..., low-income families, children with disabilities, neglected or delinquent children, low-achieving..., DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION IMPACT AID PROGRAMS Payments for Federally Connected Children Under Section 8003(b) and (e) of the Act § 222.39 How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local...

  6. 34 CFR 222.39 - How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local educational agencies for...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ..., low-income families, children with disabilities, neglected or delinquent children, low-achieving..., DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION IMPACT AID PROGRAMS Payments for Federally Connected Children Under Section 8003(b) and (e) of the Act § 222.39 How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local...

  7. Declines in Crime and Teen Childbearing: Identifying Potential Explanations for Contemporaneous Trends

    PubMed Central

    Colen, Cynthia G.; Ramey, David M.; Browning, Christopher R.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The previous 25 years have witnessed remarkable upheavals in the social landscape of the United States. Two of the most notable trends have been dramatic declines in levels of crime as well as teen childbearing. Much remains unknown about the underlying conditions that might be driving these changes. More importantly, we do not know if the same distal factors that are responsible for the drop in the crime rate are similarly implicated in falling rates of teen births. We examine four overarching potential explanations: fluctuations in economic opportunity, shifting population demographics, differences in state-level policies, and changes in expectations regarding health and mortality. Methods We combine state-specific data from existing secondary sources and model trajectories of violent crime, homicides, robberies, and teen fertility over a 20-year period from 1990 to 2010 using simultaneous fixed-effects regression models. Results We find that 4 of the 21 predictors examined - growth in the service sector of the labor market, increasing racial diversity especially among Hispanics, escalating levels of migration, and the expansion of family planning services to low-income women – offer the most convincing explanations for why rates of violent crime and teen births have been steadily decreasing over time. Moreover, we are able to account for almost a quarter of the joint declines in violent crime and teen births. Conclusions Our conclusions underscore the far reaching effects that aggregate level demographic conditions and policies are likely to have on important social trends that might, at first glance, seem unrelated. Furthermore, the effects of policy efforts designed to target outcomes in one area are likely to spill over into other domains. PMID:27695160

  8. Association of Major Dietary Patterns with General and Abdominal Obesity in Iranian Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

    PubMed

    Ghane Basiri, Marjan; Sotoudeh, Gity; Djalali, Mahmood; Reza Eshraghian, Mohammad; Noorshahi, Neda; Rafiee, Masoumeh; Nikbazm, Ronak; Karimi, Zeinab; Koohdani, Fariba

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify dietary patterns associated with general and abdominal obesity in type 2 diabetic patients. We included 728 patients (35 - 65 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus in this cross-sectional study. The usual dietary intake of individuals over 1 year was collected using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Weight, height, and waist circumference were measured according to standard protocol. The two major dietary patterns identified by factor analysis were healthy and unhealthy dietary patterns. After adjustment for potential confounders, subjects in the highest quintile of the healthy dietary pattern scores had a lower odds ratio for the general obesity when compared to the lowest quintile (OR = 0.45, 95 % CI = 0.26 - 0.79, P for trend = 0.02), while patients in the highest quintile of the unhealthy dietary pattern scores had greater odds for the general obesity (OR = 3.2, 95 % CI = 1.8 - 5.9, P for trend < 0.001). There were no significant associations between major dietary patterns and abdominal obesity, even after adjusting for confounding factors. This study shows that in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, a healthy dietary pattern is inversely associated and an unhealthy dietary pattern is directly associated with general obesity.

  9. The Trend toward Retirement Jobs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buddy, Juanita Warren

    2008-01-01

    Many library media specialists are deciding to return to the workplace after retiring from full-time employment. This article focuses on general information about the trend of retirees acquiring retirement jobs, how and why retired library media specialists return to work, their perceptions of challenges facing library media programs, and advice…

  10. Trends in the Information Industry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hogan, Thomas H.

    1987-01-01

    The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

  11. Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years.

    PubMed

    Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; Cheng, Lei; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Liu, Ronggao; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, ZhenZhong; Wang, Yingping

    2015-04-01

    The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

    DOE PAGES

    Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; ...

    2014-11-04

    The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

  13. Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang

    The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

  14. Trends in hospital efficiency among metropolitan markets.

    PubMed

    Wang, B B; Ozcan, Y A; Wan, T T; Harrison, J

    1999-04-01

    This study evaluates trends in efficiency among American hospital markets. A total of 6010 hospitals were identified for use in the analysis from the American Hospital Association's Annual Surveys for 1989 and 1993. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), a longitudinal study of hospital efficiency was conducted on all 314 metropolitan markets in the United States. Results suggest that large hospital markets generally demonstrated higher inefficiency. The major inefficiencies exist in the availability of hospital services, the number of operating beds, the utilization of hospital staffing and operating expenses. Consequently, the large hospital market had a significant excess of health manpower that resulted in inefficiency that amounted to approximately $23 billion. From a policy perspective, this study has shed some light on the need to establish more specific policies to address inefficiency in the health care industry.

  15. Trends in southern forest harvesting equipment and logging costs

    Treesearch

    Frederick W. Cubbage; Bryce J. Stokes; James E. Granskog

    1988-01-01

    Southern timber harvesting equipment and on-road vehicle costs were obtained for the years from 1967 to 1984. Average cost trends for equipment and vehicles were determined for the period. Average logging contract rates and price trends were also estimated. Comparisons indicated that equipment costs increased more than the general inflation rate and less than the...

  16. The Use of Google Trends in Health Care Research: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Nuti, Sudhakar V.; Wayda, Brian; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Wang, Sisi; Dreyer, Rachel P.; Chen, Serene I.; Murugiah, Karthik

    2014-01-01

    Background Google Trends is a novel, freely accessible tool that allows users to interact with Internet search data, which may provide deep insights into population behavior and health-related phenomena. However, there is limited knowledge about its potential uses and limitations. We therefore systematically reviewed health care literature using Google Trends to classify articles by topic and study aim; evaluate the methodology and validation of the tool; and address limitations for its use in research. Methods and Findings PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers systematically identified studies utilizing Google Trends for health care research from MEDLINE and PubMed. Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria. Google Trends publications increased seven-fold from 2009 to 2013. Studies were classified into four topic domains: infectious disease (27% of articles), mental health and substance use (24%), other non-communicable diseases (16%), and general population behavior (33%). By use, 27% of articles utilized Google Trends for casual inference, 39% for description, and 34% for surveillance. Among surveillance studies, 92% were validated against a reference standard data source, and 80% of studies using correlation had a correlation statistic ≥0.70. Overall, 67% of articles provided a rationale for their search input. However, only 7% of articles were reproducible based on complete documentation of search strategy. We present a checklist to facilitate appropriate methodological documentation for future studies. A limitation of the study is the challenge of classifying heterogeneous studies utilizing a novel data source. Conclusion Google Trends is being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains in myriad ways. However, poor documentation of methods precludes the reproducibility of the findings. Such documentation would enable other researchers to determine the consistency of results provided by Google Trends for a well

  17. The use of google trends in health care research: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Nuti, Sudhakar V; Wayda, Brian; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Wang, Sisi; Dreyer, Rachel P; Chen, Serene I; Murugiah, Karthik

    2014-01-01

    Google Trends is a novel, freely accessible tool that allows users to interact with Internet search data, which may provide deep insights into population behavior and health-related phenomena. However, there is limited knowledge about its potential uses and limitations. We therefore systematically reviewed health care literature using Google Trends to classify articles by topic and study aim; evaluate the methodology and validation of the tool; and address limitations for its use in research. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers systematically identified studies utilizing Google Trends for health care research from MEDLINE and PubMed. Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria. Google Trends publications increased seven-fold from 2009 to 2013. Studies were classified into four topic domains: infectious disease (27% of articles), mental health and substance use (24%), other non-communicable diseases (16%), and general population behavior (33%). By use, 27% of articles utilized Google Trends for casual inference, 39% for description, and 34% for surveillance. Among surveillance studies, 92% were validated against a reference standard data source, and 80% of studies using correlation had a correlation statistic ≥0.70. Overall, 67% of articles provided a rationale for their search input. However, only 7% of articles were reproducible based on complete documentation of search strategy. We present a checklist to facilitate appropriate methodological documentation for future studies. A limitation of the study is the challenge of classifying heterogeneous studies utilizing a novel data source. Google Trends is being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains in myriad ways. However, poor documentation of methods precludes the reproducibility of the findings. Such documentation would enable other researchers to determine the consistency of results provided by Google Trends for a well-specified query over time. Furthermore, greater

  18. General Systems Theory and Counterplan Competition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Madsen, Arnie

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the trend in academic debate on policy questions toward a wide acceptance of counterplans, encouraging combinations of proposals which appear at face value able to coexist but upon deeper analysis are incompatible. Argues in opposition to this trend by applying concepts from general systems theory to competition. (KEH)

  19. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  20. Current trends in nursing theories.

    PubMed

    Im, Eun-Ok; Chang, Sun Ju

    2012-06-01

    To explore current trends in nursing theories through an integrated literature review. The literature related to nursing theories during the past 10 years was searched through multiple databases and reviewed to determine themes reflecting current trends in nursing theories. The trends can be categorized into six themes: (a) foci on specifics; (b) coexistence of various types of theories; (c) close links to research; (d) international collaborative works; (e) integration to practice; and (f) selective evolution. We need to make our continuous efforts to link research and practice to theories, to identify specifics of our theories, to develop diverse types of theories, and to conduct international collaborative works. Our paper gives implications for future theoretical development in diverse clinical areas of nursing research and practice. © 2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  1. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    PubMed

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  2. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  3. A general method for identifying major hybrid male sterility genes in Drosophila.

    PubMed

    Zeng, L W; Singh, R S

    1995-10-01

    The genes responsible for hybrid male sterility in species crosses are usually identified by introgressing chromosome segments, monitored by visible markers, between closely related species by continuous backcrosses. This commonly used method, however, suffers from two problems. First, it relies on the availability of markers to monitor the introgressed regions and so the portion of the genome examined is limited to the marked regions. Secondly, the introgressed regions are usually large and it is impossible to tell if the effects of the introgressed regions are the result of single (or few) major genes or many minor genes (polygenes). Here we introduce a simple and general method for identifying putative major hybrid male sterility genes which is free of these problems. In this method, the actual hybrid male sterility genes (rather than markers), or tightly linked gene complexes with large effects, are selectively introgressed from one species into the background of another species by repeated backcrosses. This is performed by selectively backcrossing heterozygous (for hybrid male sterility gene or genes) females producing fertile and sterile sons in roughly equal proportions to males of either parental species. As no marker gene is required for this procedure, this method can be used with any species pairs that produce unisexual sterility. With the application of this method, a small X chromosome region of Drosophila mauritiana which produces complete hybrid male sterility (aspermic testes) in the background of D. simulans was identified. Recombination analysis reveals that this region contains a second major hybrid male sterility gene linked to the forked locus located at either 62.7 +/- 0.66 map units or at the centromere region of the X chromosome of D. mauritiana.

  4. History and Trends of "Personal Health Record" Research in PubMed

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jeongeun; Bates, David W.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study was to review history and trends of personal health record research in PubMed and to provide accurate understanding and categorical analysis of expert opinions. Methods For the search strategy, PubMed was queried for 'personal health record, personal record, and PHR' in the title and abstract fields. Those containing different definitions of the word were removed by one-by-one analysis from the results, 695 articles. In the end, total of 229 articles were analyzed in this research. Results The results show that the changes in terms over the years and the shift to patient centeredness and mixed usage. And we identified history and trend of PHR research in some category that the number of publications by year, topic, methodologies and target diseases. Also from analysis of MeSH terms, we can show the focal interest in regards the PHR boundaries and related subjects. Conclusions For PHRs to be efficiently used by general public, initial understanding of the history and trends of PHR research may be helpful. Simultaneously, accurate understanding and categorical analysis of expert opinions that can lead to the development and growth of PHRs will be valuable to their adoption and expansion. PMID:21818452

  5. Minority Students of Color and the Psychology Graduate Pipeline: Disquieting and Encouraging Trends, 1989-2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maton, Kenneth I.; Kohout, Jessica L.; Wicherski, Marlene; Leary, George E.; Vinokurov, Andrey

    2006-01-01

    Trends since 1989 in the minority graduate pipeline in psychology are examined, with special focus on trends in recent years. Encouraging trends generally outweigh troubling ones at lower levels of the pipeline. However, in recent years disquieting trends dominate at the higher pipeline levels. Promising trends include a rise in the percentage (to…

  6. World coal output continues upward trend

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1976-08-01

    Recently released figures from the US Bureau of Mines indicate a continuing upward trend in world coal production in 1975. On the African continent, hard coal production was generally higher than in 1974, the major increases in output coming from South Africa (production up 7.5 percent on 1974) and Rhodesia (up 4.3 percent). Gains in production in 1975 were in fact the general rule throughout the world's leading coal producing countries.

  7. 34 CFR 222.39 - How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local educational agencies for...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION IMPACT AID PROGRAMS Payments for Federally Connected Children Under Section 8003(b... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How does a State educational agency identify generally comparable local educational agencies for local contribution rate purposes? 222.39 Section 222.39 Education...

  8. Influenza testing trends in sentinel surveillance general practices in Victoria 2007 to 2014.

    PubMed

    Cowie, Genevieve A; Cowie, Benjamin C; Fielding, James E

    2017-03-31

    The Victorian Sentinel Practice Influenza Network conducts syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), with testing for laboratory confirmation of a proportion of cases at the discretion of general practitioners. The aim of this study was to evaluate the consistency of sentinel general practitioners' swabbing practice within and between influenza seasons. Aggregated, weekly, non-identified data for May to October each year from 2007 to 2014 were used to calculate the proportion of patients presenting with ILI (defined as cough, fever and fatigue), proportion of ILI patients swabbed and proportion of swabs positive for influenza. Data on the proportion of consultations for ILI and the proportion of ILI patients swabbed were aggregated into time-period quintiles for each year. Analysis of variance was used to compare ILI patients swabbed for each aggregated time-period quintile over all 8 years. Spearman's correlation and Bland-Altman analyses were used to measure association and agreement respectively between ILI proportions of consultations and swabs positive for influenza in time period quintiles within each year. Data were aggregated by year for the rest of the analyses. Between 2007 and 2014 there was a slight decrease in the proportion of positive tests and the proportion of ILI patients was generally a good proxy for influenza test positivity. There was consistency in testing within and between seasons, despite an overall testing increase between 2007 and 2014. There was no evidence for temporal sampling bias in these data despite testing not being performed on a systematic basis. This sampling regimen could also be considered in other similar surveillance systems.

  9. Red blood cell use in Switzerland: trends and demographic challenges

    PubMed Central

    Volken, Thomas; Buser, Andreas; Castelli, Damiano; Fontana, Stefano; Frey, Beat M.; Rüsges-Wolter, Ilka; Sarraj, Amira; Sigle, Jörg; Thierbach, Jutta; Weingand, Tina; Taleghani, Behrouz Mansouri

    2018-01-01

    Background Several studies have raised concerns that future demand for blood products may not be met. The ageing of the general population and the fact that a large proportion of blood products is transfused to elderly patients has been identified as an important driver of blood shortages. The aim of this study was to collect, for the first time, nationally representative data regarding blood donors and transfusion recipients in order to predict the future evolution of blood donations and red blood cell (RBC) use in Switzerland between 2014 and 2035. Materials and methods Blood donor and transfusion recipient data, subdivided by the subjects’ age and gender were obtained from Regional Blood Services and nine large, acute-care hospitals in various regions of Switzerland. Generalised additive regression models and time-series models with exponential smoothing were employed to estimate trends of whole blood donations and RBC transfusions. Results The trend models employed suggested that RBC demand could equal supply by 2018 and could eventually cause an increasing shortfall of up to 77,000 RBC units by 2035. Discussion Our study highlights the need for continuous monitoring of trends of blood donations and blood transfusions in order to take proactive measures aimed at preventing blood shortages in Switzerland. Measures should be taken to improve donor retention in order to prevent a further erosion of the blood donor base. PMID:27723455

  10. Trends in Exposure to Chemicals in Personal Care and Consumer Products.

    PubMed

    Calafat, Antonia M; Valentin-Blasini, Liza; Ye, Xiaoyun

    2015-12-01

    Synthetic organic chemicals can be used in personal care and consumer products. Data on potential human health effects of these chemicals are limited-sometimes even contradictory-but because several of these chemicals are toxic in experimental animals, alternative compounds are entering consumer markets. Nevertheless, limited information exists on consequent exposure trends to both the original chemicals and their replacements. Biomonitoring (measuring concentrations of chemicals or their metabolites in people) provides invaluable information for exposure assessment. We use phthalates and bisphenol A-known industrial chemicals-and organophosphate insecticides as case studies to show exposure trends to these chemicals and their replacements (e.g., other phthalates, non-phthalate plasticizers, various bisphenols, pyrethroid insecticides) among the US general population. We compare US trends to national trends from Canada and Germany. Exposure to the original compounds is still prevalent among these general populations, but exposures to alternative chemicals may be increasing.

  11. Mask industry assessment trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelden, Gilbert; Marmillion, Patricia; Hughes, Greg

    2008-04-01

    Microelectronics industry leaders routinely name the cost and cycle time of mask technology and mask supply as top critical issues. A survey was created with support from SEMATECH and administered by SEMI North America to gather information about the mask industry as an objective assessment of its overall condition. This year's survey data were presented in detail at BACUS and the detailed trend analysis presented at EMLC. The survey is designed with the input of semiconductor company mask technologists, merchant mask suppliers, and industry equipment makers. This year's assessment is the sixth in the current series of annual reports. With continued industry support, the report can be used as a baseline to gain perspective on the technical and business status of the mask and microelectronics industries. The report will continue to serve as a valuable reference to identify the strengths and opportunities of the mask industry. The results will be used to guide future investments on critical path issues. This year's survey is basically the same as the 2005 and 2006 surveys. Questions are grouped into eight categories: General Business Profile Information, Data Processing, Yields and Yield Loss, Mechanisms, Delivery Times, Returns and Services, Operating Cost Factors, and Equipment Utilization. Within each category is a multitude of questions that creates a detailed profile of both the business and technical status of the critical mask industry. Note: the questions covering operating cost factors and equipment utilization were added to the survey only in 2005; therefore, meaningful trend analysis is not available.

  12. Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

    2017-05-01

    To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. General Education in Two-Year Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, B. Lamar, Ed.

    1982-01-01

    Issues in defining and conceptualizing general education in the two-year college are examined in this collection of essays. After introductory remarks, B. Lamar Johnson reviews the findings of the 1952 California Study of General Education and discusses their current applicability. Next, K. Patricia Cross reviews trends in general education from…

  14. Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

    PubMed

    Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

  15. Fish and other aquatic resource trends in the United States

    Treesearch

    Andrew J. Loftus; Curtis H. Flather

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the general trends in fisheries and aquatic resources for the nation as required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974. The report highlights major trends in water quality, specific fish populations, resource utilization, and imperiled aquatic fauna. Relationships between land use, water quality, and aquatic species conditions are...

  16. Streamflow trends in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

  17. Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

    2016-10-01

    Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the

  18. Learning from Trending, Precursor Analysis, and System Failures

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Youngblood, R. W.; Duffey, R. B.

    2015-11-01

    Models of reliability growth relate current system unreliability to currently accumulated experience. But “experience” comes in different forms. Looking back after a major accident, one is sometimes able to identify previous events or measurable performance trends that were, in some sense, signaling the potential for that major accident: potential that could have been recognized and acted upon, but was not recognized until the accident occurred. This could be a previously unrecognized cause of accidents, or underestimation of the likelihood that a recognized potential cause would actually operate. Despite improvements in the state of practice of modeling of risk and reliability,more » operational experience still has a great deal to teach us, and work has been going on in several industries to try to do a better job of learning from experience before major accidents occur. It is not enough to say that we should review operating experience; there is too much “experience” for such general advice to be considered practical. The paper discusses the following: 1. The challenge of deciding what to focus on in analysis of operating experience. 2. Comparing what different models of learning and reliability growth imply about trending and precursor analysis.« less

  19. TRENDS: The aeronautical post-test database management system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bjorkman, W. S.; Bondi, M. J.

    1990-01-01

    TRENDS, an engineering-test database operating system developed by NASA to support rotorcraft flight tests, is described. Capabilities and characteristics of the system are presented, with examples of its use in recalling and analyzing rotorcraft flight-test data from a TRENDS database. The importance of system user-friendliness in gaining users' acceptance is stressed, as is the importance of integrating supporting narrative data with numerical data in engineering-test databases. Considerations relevant to the creation and maintenance of flight-test database are discussed and TRENDS' solutions to database management problems are described. Requirements, constraints, and other considerations which led to the system's configuration are discussed and some of the lessons learned during TRENDS' development are presented. Potential applications of TRENDS to a wide range of aeronautical and other engineering tests are identified.

  20. 32 CFR 635.32 - General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false General. 635.32 Section 635.32 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING Army Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report § 635.32 General. (a) This...

  1. 32 CFR 635.32 - General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false General. 635.32 Section 635.32 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING Army Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report § 635.32 General. (a) This...

  2. 32 CFR 635.32 - General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true General. 635.32 Section 635.32 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING Army Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report § 635.32 General. (a) This...

  3. 32 CFR 635.32 - General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true General. 635.32 Section 635.32 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING Army Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report § 635.32 General. (a) This...

  4. 32 CFR 635.32 - General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true General. 635.32 Section 635.32 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING Army Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report § 635.32 General. (a) This...

  5. Higher Education Profiles & Trends 2013

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tennessee Higher Education Commission, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The statute [T.C.A. Section 49-7-202(c)(7)] requires the Tennessee Higher Education Commission to prepare a biennial report for the governor and the general assembly, "commenting upon major developments, trends, new policies, budgets and financial considerations which in the judgment of the commission will be useful to the governor and to the…

  6. Paper-based and web-based intervention modeling experiments identified the same predictors of general practitioners' antibiotic-prescribing behavior.

    PubMed

    Treweek, Shaun; Bonetti, Debbie; Maclennan, Graeme; Barnett, Karen; Eccles, Martin P; Jones, Claire; Pitts, Nigel B; Ricketts, Ian W; Sullivan, Frank; Weal, Mark; Francis, Jill J

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate the robustness of the intervention modeling experiment (IME) methodology as a way of developing and testing behavioral change interventions before a full-scale trial by replicating an earlier paper-based IME. Web-based questionnaire and clinical scenario study. General practitioners across Scotland were invited to complete the questionnaire and scenarios, which were then used to identify predictors of antibiotic-prescribing behavior. These predictors were compared with the predictors identified in an earlier paper-based IME and used to develop a new intervention. Two hundred seventy general practitioners completed the questionnaires and scenarios. The constructs that predicted simulated behavior and intention were attitude, perceived behavioral control, risk perception/anticipated consequences, and self-efficacy, which match the targets identified in the earlier paper-based IME. The choice of persuasive communication as an intervention in the earlier IME was also confirmed. Additionally, a new intervention, an action plan, was developed. A web-based IME replicated the findings of an earlier paper-based IME, which provides confidence in the IME methodology. The interventions will now be evaluated in the next stage of the IME, a web-based randomized controlled trial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling defect trends for iterative development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, J. D.; Spanguolo, J. N.

    2003-01-01

    The Employment of Defects (EoD) approach to measuring and analyzing defects seeks to identify and capture trends and phenomena that are critical to managing software quality in the iterative software development lifecycle at JPL.

  8. Trends in Children's Video Game Play: Practical but Not Creative Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamlen, Karla R.

    2013-01-01

    Prior research has found common trends among children's video game play as related to gender, age, interests, creativity, and other descriptors. This study re-examined the previously reported trends by utilizing principal components analysis with variables such as creativity, general characteristics, and problem-solving methods to determine…

  9. The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

    PubMed

    Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

    2017-07-01

    Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

  10. Innovation in nursing education: which trends should you adopt?

    PubMed

    Murray, Teri A

    2007-01-01

    The author identifies trends that challenge the status quo in academic nursing education. She further provides a theoretical framework that can be used by nursing program administrators to determine the potential adoptability of the trend in nursing education programs. Leader behaviors that are crucial in leading and managing change are highlighted.

  11. Temperature trends and Urban Heat Island intensity mapping of the Las Vegas valley area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, Adam Leland

    Modified urban climate regions that are warmer than rural areas at night are referred to as Urban Heat Islands or UHI. Islands of warmer air over a city can be 12 degrees Celsius greater than the surrounding cooler air. The exponential growth in Las Vegas for the last two decades provides an opportunity to detect gradual temperature changes influenced by an increasing presence of urban materials. This thesis compares ground based thermometric observations and satellite based remote sensing temperature observations to identify temperature trends and UHI areas caused by urban development. Analysis of temperature trends between 2000 and 2010 at ground weather stations has revealed a general cooling trend in the Las Vegas region. Results show that urban development accompanied by increased vegetation has a cooling effect in arid climates. Analysis of long term temperature trends at McCarran and Nellis weather stations show 2.4 K and 1.2 K rise in temperature over the last 60 years. The ground weather station temperature data is related to the land surface temperature images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper to estimate and evaluate urban heat island intensity for Las Vegas. Results show that spatial and temporal trends of temperature are related to the gradual change in urban landcover. UHI are mainly observed at the airport and in the industrial areas. This research provides useful insight into the temporal behavior of the Las Vegas area.

  12. A case study in nonconformance and performance trend analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maloy, Joseph E.; Newton, Coy P.

    1990-01-01

    As part of NASA's effort to develop an agency-wide approach to trend analysis, a pilot nonconformance and performance trending analysis study was conducted on the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU). The purpose of the study was to (1) demonstrate that nonconformance analysis can be used to identify repeating failures of a specific item (and the associated failure modes and causes) and (2) determine whether performance parameters could be analyzed and monitored to provide an indication of component or system degradation prior to failure. The nonconformance analysis of the APU did identify repeating component failures, which possibly could be reduced if key performance parameters were monitored and analyzed. The performance-trending analysis verified that the characteristics of hardware parameters can be effective in detecting degradation of hardware performance prior to failure.

  13. Identifying MMORPG Bots: A Traffic Analysis Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kuan-Ta; Jiang, Jhih-Wei; Huang, Polly; Chu, Hao-Hua; Lei, Chin-Laung; Chen, Wen-Chin

    2008-12-01

    Massively multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs) have become extremely popular among network gamers. Despite their success, one of MMORPG's greatest challenges is the increasing use of game bots, that is, autoplaying game clients. The use of game bots is considered unsportsmanlike and is therefore forbidden. To keep games in order, game police, played by actual human players, often patrol game zones and question suspicious players. This practice, however, is labor-intensive and ineffective. To address this problem, we analyze the traffic generated by human players versus game bots and propose general solutions to identify game bots. Taking Ragnarok Online as our subject, we study the traffic generated by human players and game bots. We find that their traffic is distinguishable by 1) the regularity in the release time of client commands, 2) the trend and magnitude of traffic burstiness in multiple time scales, and 3) the sensitivity to different network conditions. Based on these findings, we propose four strategies and two ensemble schemes to identify bots. Finally, we discuss the robustness of the proposed methods against countermeasures of bot developers, and consider a number of possible ways to manage the increasingly serious bot problem.

  14. Trends in Fetal Medicine: A 10-Year Bibliometric Analysis of Prenatal Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Dhombres, Ferdinand; Bodenreider, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    The objective is to automatically identify trends in Fetal Medicine over the past 10 years through a bibliometric analysis of articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis, using text mining techniques. We processed 2,423 full-text articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis between 2006 and 2015. We extracted salient terms, calculated their frequencies over time, and established evolution profiles for terms, from which we derived falling, stable, and rising trends. We identified 618 terms with a falling trend, 2,142 stable terms, and 839 terms with a rising trend. Terms with increasing frequencies include those related to statistics and medical study design. The most recent of these terms reflect the new opportunities of next- generation sequencing. Many terms related to cytogenetics exhibit a falling trend. A bibliometric analysis based on text mining effectively supports identification of trends over time. This scalable approach is complementary to analyses based on metadata or expert opinion. PMID:29295220

  15. Hydrologic and Undernourisment Trends In Food Insecurity Hotspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Mishra, V.; Davenport, F.

    2011-12-01

    As food prices rise, per capita harvested area diminishes and competition for limited resources mounts, the number of undernourished people has risen to more than a billion people. In this study, we target 80 potentially food insecure countries, examining hydrologic and undernourishment trends. For each country, primary cultivation areas are identified, and hydrologic variables extracted from simulations based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model driven with the Princeton University climate data. Trends in runoff, soil moisture, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and temperature are evaluated. In addition to precipitation driven-aridity, the analysis also evaluates possible temperature-related shifts in sensible versus latent heat fluxes during energy-limited portions of the growing seasons. Changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are also investigated. The undernourishment trends are explored using the FAO percent under-nourished formulation, which determines the fraction of the population falling below a critical caloric threshold by using national food balance sheets (quantity) and a caloric distribution based on economic equality. Trends in quantity and equity, and their effects on undernourishment are evaluated, and vulnerability to price volatility quantified. Finally, a sub-set of countries facing both hydrologic declines and undernourishment increases are identified as food security hotspots.

  16. Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2018-02-01

    The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly `no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

  17. Identifying critical success factors for designing selection processes into postgraduate specialty training: the case of UK general practice.

    PubMed

    Plint, Simon; Patterson, Fiona

    2010-06-01

    The UK national recruitment process into general practice training has been developed over several years, with incremental introduction of stages which have been piloted and validated. Previously independent processes, which encouraged multiple applications and produced inconsistent outcomes, have been replaced by a robust national process which has high reliability and predictive validity, and is perceived to be fair by candidates and allocates applicants equitably across the country. Best selection practice involves a job analysis which identifies required competencies, then designs reliable assessment methods to measure them, and over the long term ensures that the process has predictive validity against future performance. The general practitioner recruitment process introduced machine markable short listing assessments for the first time in the UK postgraduate recruitment context, and also adopted selection centre workplace simulations. The key success factors have been identified as corporate commitment to the goal of a national process, with gradual convergence maintaining locus of control rather than the imposition of change without perceived legitimate authority.

  18. Current economic trends in equine practice.

    PubMed

    Clark, Andrew R

    2009-12-01

    Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

  19. Persistent collective trend in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  20. Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks’ price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds. PMID:27893780

  1. Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

  2. Selectivity trend of gas separation through nanoporous graphene

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Hongjun; Chen, Zhongfang; Dai, Sheng

    2014-01-29

    We demonstrate that porous graphene can efficiently separate gases according to their molecular sizes using molecular dynamic (MD) simulations,. The flux sequence from the classical MD simulation is H 2>CO 2>>N 2>Ar>CH 4, which generally follows the trend in the kinetic diameters. Moreover, this trend is also confirmed from the fluxes based on the computed free energy barriers for gas permeation using the umbrella sampling method and kinetic theory of gases. Both brute-force MD simulations and free-energy calcualtions lead to the flux trend consistent with experiments. Case studies of two compositions of CO 2/N 2 mixtures further demonstrate the separationmore » capability of nanoporous graphene.« less

  3. Molecular Epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus in the General Population in Northeast Germany: Results of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-TREND-0)

    PubMed Central

    Holtfreter, Silva; Grumann, Dorothee; Balau, Veronika; Barwich, Annette; Kolata, Julia; Goehler, André; Weiss, Stefan; Holtfreter, Birte; Bauerfeind, Stephanie S.; Döring, Paula; Friebe, Erika; Haasler, Nicole; Henselin, Kristin; Kühn, Katrin; Nowotny, Sophie; Radke, Dörte; Schulz, Katrin; Schulz, Sebastian R.; Trübe, Patricia; Vu, Chi Hai; Walther, Birgit; Westphal, Susanne; Cuny, Christiane; Witte, Wolfgang; Völzke, Henry; Grabe, Hans Jörgen; Kocher, Thomas; Steinmetz, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    Population-based studies on Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization are scarce. We examined the prevalence, resistance, and molecular diversity of S. aureus in the general population in Northeast Germany. Nasal swabs were obtained from 3,891 adults in the large-scale population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-TREND). Isolates were characterized using spa genotyping, as well as antibiotic resistance and virulence gene profiling. We observed an S. aureus prevalence of 27.2%. Nasal S. aureus carriage was associated with male sex and inversely correlated with age. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) accounted for 0.95% of the colonizing S. aureus strains. MRSA carriage was associated with frequent visits to hospitals, nursing homes, or retirement homes within the previous 24 months. All MRSA strains were resistant to multiple antibiotics. Most MRSA isolates belonged to the pandemic European hospital-acquired MRSA sequence type 22 (HA-MRSA-ST22) lineage. We also detected one livestock-associated MRSA ST398 (LA-MRSA-ST398) isolate, as well as six livestock-associated methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (LA-MSSA) isolates (clonal complex 1 [CC1], CC97, and CC398). spa typing revealed a diverse but also highly clonal S. aureus population structure. We identified a total of 357 spa types, which were grouped into 30 CCs or sequence types. The major seven CCs (CC30, CC45, CC15, CC8, CC7, CC22, and CC25) included 75% of all isolates. Virulence gene patterns were strongly linked to the clonal background. In conclusion, MSSA and MRSA prevalences and the molecular diversity of S. aureus in Northeast Germany are consistent with those of other European countries. The detection of HA-MRSA and LA-MRSA within the general population indicates possible transmission from hospitals and livestock, respectively, and should be closely monitored. PMID:27605711

  4. Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

    PubMed

    WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

    2011-10-01

    Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

  5. Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

    PubMed

    Nagano, Yasuharu; Yako-Suketomo, Hiroko; Natsui, Hiroaki

    2018-01-01

    Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury. A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors. The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%). However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001).

  6. Higher cost sharing for visiting general hospitals and the changing trend in the first-visited healthcare organization among newly diagnosed hypertension patients.

    PubMed

    Shin, Jaeyong; Choi, Young; Lee, Sang Gyu; Kim, Tae Hyun; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2016-10-01

    Unnecessary use of high-quality resources in general hospitals hinders treatment of patients with urgent and complicated conditions. Thus, the Korean Government has sought to reduce general hospital visiting of patients with 52 mild diseases, including hypertension. The higher cost sharing for medical expenses and medications from general hospitals were enacted in 2009 and 2011, respectively.We determined whether these regulations were effective through evaluating changing trends in first-visited healthcare organizations and defined the first visiting healthcare organization level (primary clinics, hospital, and general hospital) as an outcome measure.Data of 32,830 mild hypertension patients from 2004 to 2013 were retrieved from the Korean National Health Insurance Service National Sample Cohort. This was a retrospective study involving a large national cohort with patient samples (representing 2% of the total Korean population) stratified on the basis of sociodemographic information.Mutinomial logistic regression were performed for the first visiting to different health organizations, compared to the first visiting to primary clinics.Patients in 2012 and 2013 had significantly lower odds ("2012": 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.81/"2013": 0.66, 95% CI 0.54-0.81) of first visiting general hospitals compared with those in 2008, although decreased tendencies (albeit nonsignificant) were already evident in 2010 and 2011.Thus, government health policies for cost-containment seem effective in decreasing first visiting of general hospitals among patients with mild essential hypertension. These policies have since extended to Medical Aid beneficiaries; thus, it is needed to continue monitor their results carefully.

  7. Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in North Dakota, 1971-2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vecchia, Aldo V.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historical water-quality trends in selected dissolved major ions, nutrients, and dissolved trace metals for 10 streams in southwestern and eastern North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor future water-quality trends. A time-series model for daily streamflow and constituent concentration was used to identify significant concentration trends, separate natural hydroclimatic variability in concentration from variability that could have resulted from anthropogenic causes, and evaluate various sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. The interannual variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow, referred to as the annual concentration anomaly, generally was high for all constituents and streams used in the trend analysis and was particularly sensitive to the severe drought that occurred in the late 1980's and the very wet period that began in 1993 and has persisted to the present (2002). Although climatic conditions were similar across North Dakota during the trend-analysis period (1971-2000), significant differences occurred in the annual concentration anomalies from constituent to constituent and location to location, especially during the drought and the wet period. Numerous trends were detected in the historical constituent concentrations after the annual concentration anomalies were removed. The trends within each of the constituent groups (major ions, nutrients, and trace metals) showed general agreement among the streams. For most locations, the largest dissolved major-ion concentrations occurred during the late 1970's and concentrations in the mid- to late 1990's were smaller than concentrations during the late 1970's. However, the largest concentrations for three of the Missouri River tributaries and one of the Red River of the North

  8. Analysis of phosphorus trends and evaluation of sampling designs in the Quinebaug River Basin, Connecticut

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Todd Trench, Elaine C.

    2004-01-01

    A time-series analysis approach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to analyze trends in total phosphorus and evaluate optimal sampling designs for future trend detection, using long-term data for two water-quality monitoring stations on the Quinebaug River in eastern Connecticut. Trend-analysis results for selected periods of record during 1971?2001 indicate that concentrations of total phosphorus in the Quinebaug River have varied over time, but have decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. Total phosphorus concentrations at both stations increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but were still substantially lower than historical levels. Drainage areas for both stations are primarily forested, but water quality at both stations is affected by point discharges from municipal wastewater-treatment facilities. Various designs with sampling frequencies ranging from 4 to 11 samples per year were compared to the trend-detection power of the monthly (12-sample) design to determine the most efficient configuration of months to sample for a given annual sampling frequency. Results from this evaluation indicate that the current (2004) 8-sample schedule for the two Quinebaug stations, with monthly sampling from May to September and bimonthly sampling for the remainder of the year, is not the most efficient 8-sample design for future detection of trends in total phosphorus. Optimal sampling schedules for the two stations differ, but in both cases, trend-detection power generally is greater among 8-sample designs that include monthly sampling in fall and winter. Sampling designs with fewer than 8 samples per year generally provide a low level of probability for detection of trends in total phosphorus. Managers may determine an acceptable level of probability for trend detection within the context of the multiple objectives of the state?s water-quality management program and the scientific understanding of the watersheds in question. Managers may

  9. World food trends and prospects to 2025

    PubMed Central

    Dyson, Tim

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews food (especially cereal) production trends and prospects for the world and its main regions. Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal demand that will occur until the year 2025. However, because of an increasing degree of mismatch between the expansion of regional demand and the potential for supply, there will be a major expansion of world cereal (and noncereal food) trade. Other consequences for global agriculture arising from demographic growth include the need to use water much more efficiently and an even greater dependence on nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., South Asia). Farming everywhere will depend more on information-intensive agricultural management procedures. Moreover, despite continued general progress, there still will be a significant number of undernourished people in 2025. Signs of heightened harvest variability, especially in North America, are of serious concern. Thus, although future general food trends are likely to be positive, in some respects we also could be entering a more volatile world. PMID:10339520

  10. Trends in Handheld Computing Among Medical Students

    PubMed Central

    Grasso, Michael A.; Yen, M. Jim; Mintz, Matthew L.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify trends in the utilization and acceptance of handheld computers (personal digital assistants) among medical students during preclinical and clinical training. These results can be used to identify differences between preclinical and clinical users, differences between current use and idealized use, and perceived limitations of these devices. PMID:16779255

  11. Teacher Turnover in Eight Cognate Areas: National Trends and Predictors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boe, Erling E.; Bobbitt, Sharon A.; Cook, Lynne H.; Barkanic, Gema; Maislin, Greg

    This report contains national trend and predictor data for the turnover of K-12 public school teachers in eight cognate areas: general elementary education; mathematics and science education; language education; social studies education; arts, physical, and health education; business and vocational education; other general education; and special…

  12. Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner's Network study.

    PubMed

    de Sousa-Uva, Mafalda; Antunes, L; Nunes, B; Rodrigues, A P; Simões, J A; Ribeiro, R T; Boavida, J M; Matias-Dias, C

    2016-10-01

    Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner's (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients' lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80-4.80) per year under study. Until 1998-2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998-2000 to 2013-2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022-2024 was 972.77/10(5) inhabitants in total, and 846.74/10(5) and 1114.42/10(5), respectively, in women and men. This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. HRD Trends Worldwide: Shared Solutions To Compete in a Global Economy. Improving Human Performance Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Jack J.

    This book, which is intended for individuals involved in developing, delivering, and supporting human resource development (HRD) programs, discusses worldwide HRD trends that were identified in a study of the HRD practices in 35 countries. Chapter 1 discusses the importance of the HRD trends identified and explains how they were identified.…

  14. Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    2002-01-01

    We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate

  15. Analysis of Engineering Discipline Grade Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAllister, Charles D.; Jiang, Xiaoyue; Aghazadeh, Fereydoun

    2008-01-01

    Among the academic community, there is a perception that there is an upward shift in grade point average over an extended period of time without a corresponding increase in achievement. This trend has become an alarming topic among educators, industry and the general public. Some attribute increases in GPA to improvements in student quality while…

  16. Higher Education Profiles and Trends, 2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tennessee Higher Education Commission, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Tennessee Code Annotated (T.C.A.) Section 49-7-2 (c) (7) requires the Tennessee Higher Education Commission to "submit a biennial report to the governor and the general assembly, commenting upon major developments, trends, new policies, budgets and financial considerations which in the judgment of the commission will be useful to the governor…

  17. Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hickman, R. Edward; Hirsch, Robert M.

    2017-02-27

    In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids).Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations.The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration

  18. Identifying model error in metabolic flux analysis - a generalized least squares approach.

    PubMed

    Sokolenko, Stanislav; Quattrociocchi, Marco; Aucoin, Marc G

    2016-09-13

    The estimation of intracellular flux through traditional metabolic flux analysis (MFA) using an overdetermined system of equations is a well established practice in metabolic engineering. Despite the continued evolution of the methodology since its introduction, there has been little focus on validation and identification of poor model fit outside of identifying "gross measurement error". The growing complexity of metabolic models, which are increasingly generated from genome-level data, has necessitated robust validation that can directly assess model fit. In this work, MFA calculation is framed as a generalized least squares (GLS) problem, highlighting the applicability of the common t-test for model validation. To differentiate between measurement and model error, we simulate ideal flux profiles directly from the model, perturb them with estimated measurement error, and compare their validation to real data. Application of this strategy to an established Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell model shows how fluxes validated by traditional means may be largely non-significant due to a lack of model fit. With further simulation, we explore how t-test significance relates to calculation error and show that fluxes found to be non-significant have 2-4 fold larger error (if measurement uncertainty is in the 5-10 % range). The proposed validation method goes beyond traditional detection of "gross measurement error" to identify lack of fit between model and data. Although the focus of this work is on t-test validation and traditional MFA, the presented framework is readily applicable to other regression analysis methods and MFA formulations.

  19. Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

    2005-01-01

    Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at

  20. Disparities in perceived patient-provider communication quality in the United States: Trends and correlates.

    PubMed

    Spooner, Kiara K; Salemi, Jason L; Salihu, Hamisu M; Zoorob, Roger J

    2016-05-01

    This study aimed to describe disparities and temporal trends in the level of perceived patient-provider communication quality (PPPCQ) in the United States, and to identify sociodemographic and health-related factors associated with elements of PPPCQ. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using nationally-representative data from the 2011-2013 iterations of the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS). Descriptive statistics, multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine associations. PPPCQ scores, the composite measure of patients' ratings of communication quality, were positive overall (82.8; 95% CI: 82.1-83.5). However, less than half (42-46%) of respondents perceived that providers always addressed their feelings, spent enough time with them, or helped with feelings of uncertainty about their health. Older adults and those with a regular provider consistently had higher PPPCQ scores, while those with poorer perceived general health were consistently less likely to have positive perceptions of their providers' communication behaviors. Disparities in PPPCQ can be attributed to patients' age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, employment status, income, healthcare access and general health. These findings may inform educational and policy efforts which aim to improve patient-provider communication, enhance the quality of care, and reduce health disparities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Satellite retrieval of actual evapotranspiration in the Tibetan Plateau: Components partitioning, multidecadal trends and dominated factors identifying

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Weiguang; Li, Jinxing; Yu, Zhongbo; Ding, Yimin; Xing, Wanqiu; Lu, Wenjun

    2018-04-01

    As the only connecting term between water balance and energy budget in the earth-atmospheric system, evapotranspiration (ET) is considered the most excellent indicator for the activity for the water and energy cycle. Under the background of global change, regional ET estimates, components partitioning as well as their spatial and temporal patterns recognition are of great importance in understanding the hydrological processes and improving water management practices. This is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive and vulnerable region in response to the environment change in the earth. In this study, with flux site observation data and monthly ET data from the monthly water balance method incorporating the terrestrial water storage changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite (GRACE) production as the multiple validations, the long-term daily ET in the TP was retrieved by a modified Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) model with considering evapotranspiration over snow covered area during 1982-2012. The spatial and temporal changes of partitioned three components of ET, i.e., soil evaporation (Es), transpiration through the stomata of plant (Ec) and canopy interception (Ei), were investigated in the TP. Meanwhile, how the ET components contribute to ET changes and respond to the change in environmental factors in the TP was revealed and discussed. The results indicate that Es dominates ET in most areas of the TP with the mean annual ratio of 65.7%, except southeastern regions where the vegetation coverage is high. Although regional average ET and three main components all present obvious increase trends during the past decades, high spatial heterogeneity for their trends are identified in the TP. Moreover, a mixed changing pattern can be apparently found for Es in southeastern area, Ec and Ei in northwestern and southeastern area. Spatially, the ET variation are mainly attributed to change in Es, followed by Ec and Ei

  2. International trends in health science librarianship: Part 7. Taking stock.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Jeannette

    2013-09-01

    This article reviews the six papers published so far in this series on global trends in health science librarianship. Starting with a retrospective review of trends in the twentieth-century, the series has covered 6 different regions, with contributions from 21 countries. As this is the half-way point in the survey, it seems a useful point at which to reflect on what has emerged so far. The method of content analysis is used to identify key trends. The top five trends are explored. © 2013 The author. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

  3. The use and trends of information and communication technology (ICT) during middle childhood.

    PubMed

    Louw, Anet E; Winter, Melanie

    2011-06-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICT) have become an integral part of people's lives. Trends suggest that the age when technology is used for the first time is rapidly decreasing and that children are exposed to ICT daily. However, the focus of the existing research has been on adolescents, and there is a dearth of knowledge about the use of ICT amongst children in middle childhood in South Africa. The objective of this study was to address this issue. The research participants included 12 children aged between 6 and 12 years old from two private schools (a boys' school and a girls' school) in the Gauteng region. A phenomenological approach was used to explore the use and trends of ICT among this age group. A semi-structured interview approach was employed for the data collection and each interview was tape-recorded and transcribed by the researcher. The Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to analyse and interpret the data collected. Various themes were identified. While all the participants had been exposed to and used ICT, a clear developmental trend was observed: not only were younger children less sophisticated users of ICT, but they were also less informed about the dangers of ICT usage. The participants were generally not supervised but some rules were implemented by the parents. Although the children did not experience cyber bullying, they did report exposure to pornography. The results suggest various implications for developmental trends and protection of children.

  4. Mineral exploration and fracture trends in Utah and Nevada, by ERTS-1 imagery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Smith, M. R.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Major structural trends have been compiled on five separate maps, at a scale of 1:1,000,000, of Utah and Nevada from ERTS-1 imagery. An arbitrary length of ten kilometers has been chosen as a minimum length of the trends. The selection is based upon: (1) obvious displacement of structures; (2) continuity or persistence of trends across structures; (3) line-up of outcrop patterns, drainage, erosional features or vegetation; and (4) near-linear trends. Several recognizable trend directions have noted, viz., N 10-15 deg W, N 35 deg W, N 80 deg W, N 30 deg E, and E-W. More than 1500 structural trends have been identified, some of which are mineralized and extend into pediment or shallow alluvial cover. Those fracture trends that exhibit mineralization in exposed bedrock will be assayed for mercury content with a soil-gas analyzer and similar collection will be done over alluvial posture blankets by the same technique with the hope of discovering blind mineralized zones that are not exposed on the surface.

  5. Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

    1994-01-01

    It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

  6. Trends in youth internet victimization: findings from three youth internet safety surveys 2000-2010.

    PubMed

    Jones, Lisa M; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Finkelhor, David

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this research was to explore the trends in youth reports of unwanted online sexual solicitation, harassment, and exposure to pornography over time. The study was based on three separate cross-sectional national telephone surveys of approximately 1,500 youth Internet users, aged 10 through 17 years. Data were collected in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Nine percent of youth reported an unwanted sexual solicitation in 2010. This continued the decline in unwanted sexual solicitations that occurred between 2000 (19%) and 2005 (13%), resulting in a total 50% decrease between 2000 and 2010. Twenty-three percent of youth reported an unwanted exposure to pornography, a decline from 34% in 2005, following an increase between 2000 and 2005 (25% to 34%). However, marking the only trend to show an increase over the past 5 years, 11% of youth reported an online harassment experience, which was an increase from 9% in 2005, and 6% in 2000. Some differences in these trends were noted for subgroups of youth across age, gender, and race. The trends in unwanted experiences online over the past decade identified by three Youth Internet Safety Surveys may contradict impressions that the general population, professionals, and the media have about what is happening. Trends provide evidence for some optimism that protective adaptations to the online environment have been successful; however, online harassment appears to be increasing for youth, particularly girls, and may require additional mobilization. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Updated Trends in Materials' Outgassing Technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosecrans, Glenn; Mlucciacciaro, Anthony

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the trends in materials' outgassing. The work utilized a database of reports to identify common outgassing chemical species from flight hardware, spacecraft, and ground support equipment (GSE). This work updates an earlier work that reported on chemical analysis from 1970-1978.

  8. Orthopedic Surgery among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-based study to Identify Risk factors, Sex differences, and Time trends.

    PubMed

    Richter, Michael; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L; Makol, Ashima

    2017-12-20

    To identify risk factors for large joint (LJS) versus small joint surgery (SJS) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and evaluate trends in surgery rates over time. A retrospective medical record review was performed of all orthopedic surgeries following first fulfillment of 1987 ACR criteria for adult-onset RA among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA in 1980-2013. Risk factors were examined using Cox models adjusted for age, sex and calendar year of RA incidence. Trends in incidence of joint surgeries were examined using Poisson regression models. A total of 1077 patients with RA (mean age 56 years, 69% female, 66% seropositive) were followed for a median of 10.7 years during which 112 (90 women) underwent at least one SJS and 204 (141 women) underwent at least one LJS. Risk factors included advanced age, rheumatoid factor and anti-CCP antibody positivity for both SJS and LJS, and BMI≥30 kg/m 2 for LJS. Risk factors for SJS and LJS at any time during follow-up included the presence of radiographic erosions, large joint swelling, and methotrexate use. SJS rates decreased by calendar year of incidence (hazard ratio 0.53; p=0.001), with significant decline in SJS after 1995. The cumulative incidence of SJS was higher in women than men (p=0.008). In recent years, there has been a significant decline in rates of SJS but not LJS in patients with RA. The incidence of SJS is higher among women. Traditional RA risk factors are strong predictors for SJS and LJS. Increasing age and obesity are predictive of LJS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  9. Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Risch, Martin R.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Baker, Nancy T.

    2014-01-01

    Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

  10. Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

  11. [Advances of studies on new technology and method for identifying traditional Chinese medicinal materials].

    PubMed

    Chen, Shilin; Guo, Baolin; Zhang, Guijun; Yan, Zhuyun; Luo, Guangming; Sun, Suqin; Wu, Hezhen; Huang, Linfang; Pang, Xiaohui; Chen, Jianbo

    2012-04-01

    In this review, the authors summarized the new technologies and methods for identifying traditional Chinese medicinal materials, including molecular identification, chemical identification, morphological identification, microscopic identification and identification based on biological effects. The authors introduced the principle, characteristics, application and prospect on each new technology or method and compared their advantages and disadvantages. In general, new methods make the result more objective and accurate. DNA barcoding technique and spectroscopy identification have their owner obvious strongpoint in universality and digitalization. In the near future, the two techniques are promising to be the main trend for identifying traditional Chinese medicinal materials. The identification techniques based on microscopy, liquid chromatography, PCR, biological effects and DNA chip will be indispensable supplements. However, the bionic identification technology is just placed in the developing stage at present.

  12. Using generalized additive (mixed) models to analyze single case designs.

    PubMed

    Shadish, William R; Zuur, Alain F; Sullivan, Kristynn J

    2014-04-01

    This article shows how to apply generalized additive models and generalized additive mixed models to single-case design data. These models excel at detecting the functional form between two variables (often called trend), that is, whether trend exists, and if it does, what its shape is (e.g., linear and nonlinear). In many respects, however, these models are also an ideal vehicle for analyzing single-case designs because they can consider level, trend, variability, overlap, immediacy of effect, and phase consistency that single-case design researchers examine when interpreting a functional relation. We show how these models can be implemented in a wide variety of ways to test whether treatment is effective, whether cases differ from each other, whether treatment effects vary over cases, and whether trend varies over cases. We illustrate diagnostic statistics and graphs, and we discuss overdispersion of data in detail, with examples of quasibinomial models for overdispersed data, including how to compute dispersion and quasi-AIC fit indices in generalized additive models. We show how generalized additive mixed models can be used to estimate autoregressive models and random effects and discuss the limitations of the mixed models compared to generalized additive models. We provide extensive annotated syntax for doing all these analyses in the free computer program R. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

  14. Benchmarking 2010: Trends in Education Philanthropy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bearman, Jessica

    2010-01-01

    "Benchmarking 2010" offers insights into the current priorities, practices and concerns of education grantmakers. The report is divided into five sections: (1) Mapping the Education Grantmaking Landscape; (2) 2010 Funding Priorities; (3) Strategies for Leveraging Greater Impact; (4) Identifying Significant Trends in Education Funding; and (5)…

  15. Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

  16. Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

  17. Secular trends and smoke-free policy development in rural Kentucky

    PubMed Central

    Fallin, Amanda; Parker, Lindsay; Lindgreen, Janine; Riker, Carol; Kercsmar, Sarah; Hahn, Ellen J.

    2011-01-01

    Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and pulmonary disorders. Smoke-free policies are the most effective way to prevent exposure to SHS. A 5-year community-based randomized control trial (RCT) is in progress to assess factors associated with smoke-free policy development in rural communities. Considering secular trends is critical when conducting community-based RCTs as they may threaten the internal validity of the study. For the purposes of this paper, secular trends are defined as patterns or recurring events that are not directly related to smoke-free policy but have the potential to influence policy development. There are no established protocols to monitor secular trends in the study of smoke-free policy in rural communities. The purpose of this paper is to (i) describe the development of a protocol to identify and monitor secular trends that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT to promote smoke-free policy development and (ii) describe secular trends identified in the first 2 years of the RCT. The sample includes 854 secular events captured from media outlets covering the 40 study counties over the first 2 years of the RCT. Of these 854 events, there were 281 secular events in Year 1 and 573 in Year 2. This paper focuses on five specific categories: ‘tobacco use and cessation activities’, ‘farming’, ‘economics’, ‘city/county infrastructure’ and ‘wellness’. This protocol is a feasible yet time-intensive method of identifying events that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT. PMID:21558440

  18. Drug formularies--good or evil? A view using prescribing analyses and cost trends data.

    PubMed

    Chapman, S

    1994-01-01

    In the UK, the drugs bill has almost trebled in the last 10 years and is consuming an increasing proportion of the total National Health Service spend. If the drugs bill can be limited, greater funds will be available for other areas of the health service. Therefore, cost containment measures which include prescribing from a formulary or generic prescribing are now widely encouraged. Prescribing analyses and cost trends data generated from pharmacists sending dispensed general practitioners' prescriptions to a central point for reimbursement are a valuable tool in the assessment of prescribing habits and can be used by general practitioners when preparing a formulary. In the West Midlands, such data have been used to identify areas of growth in cardiovascular drugs and problem areas where prescribing an expensive formulation has led to a dramatic increase in costs.

  19. Determination of annual and seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of MODIS LST over Greece - climate change implications.

    PubMed

    Eleftheriou, Dimitrios; Kiachidis, Kyriakos; Kalmintzis, Georgios; Kalea, Argiro; Bantasis, Christos; Koumadoraki, Paraskevi; Spathara, Maria Eleni; Tsolaki, Angeliki; Tzampazidou, Maria Irini; Gemitzi, Alexandra

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on the earth's functions thus affecting all life of the planet. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is identified as a key variable in environmental and climate studies. The present study investigates the distribution of daytime and nighttime LST trends over Greece, a country in the Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main "hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km×10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1∗10 -2 °C to -1.3∗10 -3 °C, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6∗10 -5 °C to 3.1∗10 -3 °C, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the annual diurnal LST range is decreasing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends from the surveillance of suicidal behaviour by the Belgian Network of Sentinel General Practices over two decades: a retrospective observational study.

    PubMed

    Boffin, Nicole; Moreels, Sarah; Van Casteren, Viviane

    2015-11-27

    First, we describe trends in characteristics of suicidal events using new (2011-2012) and previous (1993-1995, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008) data reported by the Belgian Network of Sentinel General Practices (SGP); second, we examine patient age-related trends in on-site attendance of sentinel general practitioners (GPs) as first professional caregivers following suicidal behaviour; third, we investigate the accuracy of suicide incidence estimates derived from the SGP data. Retrospective observational study. General practices from the nationwide representative Belgian Network of SGP. Patient gender and age, suicide methods, whether the patient was new, whether the GP was the first caregiver on-site, and the outcome of the suicidal behaviour (fatal or not) were recorded on standard registration forms. The accuracy of suicide incidence estimates was tested against suicide mortality data. Over the four time periods, 1671 suicidal events were reported: 275 suicides, 1287 suicide attempts and 109 events of suicidal behaviour of unknown outcome. In 2011-2012, sentinel GPs' on-site attendance following the suicidal behaviour of patients <65 years had continued to decrease (from 71% in 1993-1995 to 58% in 2000-2001, 39% in 2007-2008 and 25% in 2011-2012). In 2011-2012, it had also decreased steeply in the population ≥65 years (from 70% in 1993-1995, 76% in 2000-2001 and 79% in 2007-2008 to 35% in 2011-2012). No significant differences were found between the SGP-based suicide incidence estimates for 2011-2012 and the available suicide mortality rates for people <65 and ≥65 years. GPs' on-site attendance as first professional caregivers following suicidal behaviour continues to decline since 2011-2012 also in the population ≥65 years. Unawareness of patients' suicidal behaviour endangers both care for surviving patients and the completeness of SGP surveillance data. Yet, the incidence of suicide for 2011-2012 was estimated accurately by the SGP. Published by the BMJ

  1. Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas, 1975-89 water years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schertz, T.L.; Wells, F.C.; Ohe, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    The probable source of trend patterns in nutrients and measures of oxygen in the Trinity River Basin was changes in the wastewater treatment facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. A pattern of increased concentrations of inorganic constituents in the upper Colorado River Basin resulted from emergency releases of water from the Natural Darn Lake, a salinity control structure. Trend patterns in inorganic constituents in the Rio Grande Basin were a result of increasing concentrations in the Pecos River and, to a lesser extent, the Rio Grande above the Amistad Reservoir, combined with the effects of reservoir regulation. A pattern of increasing concentrations of organic plus ammonia nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen was detected for the 1975-86 water years for stations with low concentrations (generally less than 5 milligrams per liter) of these nitrogen species. The trends were no longer evident when the period of trend analysis was extended to the 1989 water year. A positive bias in the data caused by the addition of mercuric chloride tablets to preserve nutrient samples during 1980-86 was the probable source of this trend pattern. A pattern of increasing concentrations in dissolved sulfate in the eastern part of the State was a result of a positive bias in the analytical results of a turbidimetric method of sulfate analysis. The source of a statewide pattern of increased pH in streams could not be identified.

  2. Use of seasonal trend decomposition to understand groundwater behaviour in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer, Eden Valley, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lafare, Antoine E. A.; Peach, Denis W.; Hughes, Andrew G.

    2016-02-01

    The daily groundwater level (GWL) response in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifers in the Eden Valley, England (UK), has been studied using the seasonal trend decomposition by LOESS (STL) technique. The hydrographs from 18 boreholes in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone were decomposed into three components: seasonality, general trend and remainder. The decomposition was analysed first visually, then using tools involving a variance ratio, time-series hierarchical clustering and correlation analysis. Differences and similarities in decomposition pattern were explained using the physical and hydrogeological information associated with each borehole. The Penrith Sandstone exhibits vertical and horizontal heterogeneity, whereas the more homogeneous St Bees Sandstone groundwater hydrographs characterize a well-identified seasonality; however, exceptions can be identified. A stronger trend component is obtained in the silicified parts of the northern Penrith Sandstone, while the southern Penrith, containing Brockram (breccias) Formation, shows a greater relative variability of the seasonal component. Other boreholes drilled as shallow/deep pairs show differences in responses, revealing the potential vertical heterogeneities within the Penrith Sandstone. The differences in bedrock characteristics between and within the Penrith and St Bees Sandstone formations appear to influence the GWL response. The de-seasonalized and de-trended GWL time series were then used to characterize the response, for example in terms of memory effect (autocorrelation analysis). By applying the STL method, it is possible to analyse GWL hydrographs leading to better conceptual understanding of the groundwater flow. Thus, variation in groundwater response can be used to gain insight into the aquifer physical properties and understand differences in groundwater behaviour.

  3. Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Julie Rowland

    2015-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

  4. Working group on future trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Reeves, Randall R.; Long, Alison Kirk

    1999-01-01

    This working group did not divide into subgroups, and its report consists of a unified document in a format somewhat different than those of the other working groups. The group considered four major topics: (1) projected "new" contaminants of future concern; (2) future trends with contaminants currently known to be issues for marine mammals; (3) future needs to improve and insure consistency of sample collection and analyses; and (4) future management needs.The problems of persistent organic pollutants will remain well into the foreseeable future. A general decline in levels of persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment is not anticipated. there is every likelihood that the environmental trends of halogenated organic compounds, such as polybromated diphenyl ethers and chlorinated paraffins, will parallel production trends, as demonstrated with well known chemical contaminants such as PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) and DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane). While the environmental levels of some compounds may be slowly declining, many are still within the ranges where subtle toxic effects are to be anticipated. Trends in contaminants must be placed in a regional context, and rates and directions of change are often region-specific. For example, in the Southern Hemisphere the concentrations of PCBs appear to be increasing. The rates of change of many contaminants in the Southern hemisphere are poorly known, and this region may be at future risk.Much of the research on contaminants and marine mammals has focused on the problem of persistent organochloride chemicals such as PCBs and DDT, which are a continuing and global problem. Potential problems caused by other persistent, toxic, and bioaccumulative substances (PTBSs) cannot currently be addressed due to the lack of basic information on their production, use, exposure, and effects (Environmental Protection Agency 1998). It is currently estimated that there are roughly 2400 lipophilic and persistent

  5. Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is

  6. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Canter, L.W., E-mail: envimptr@aol.com; Chawla, M.K.; Swor, C.T.

    2014-01-15

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases);more » physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.« less

  7. A New Trend-Following Indicator: Using SSA to Design Trading Rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leles, Michel Carlo Rodrigues; Mozelli, Leonardo Amaral; Guimarães, Homero Nogueira

    Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric approach that can be used to decompose a time-series as trends, oscillations and noise. Trend-following strategies rely on the principle that financial markets move in trends for an extended period of time. Moving Averages (MAs) are the standard indicator to design such strategies. In this study, SSA is used as an alternative method to enhance trend resolution in comparison with the traditional MA. New trading rules using SSA as indicator are proposed. This paper shows that for the Down Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Shangai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) time-series the SSA trading rules provided, in general, better results in comparison to MA trading rules.

  8. Long-term trends in railroad service and capacity for U.S. agriculture

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-11-01

    In this paper, the long-term trends in railroad services and capacity for U.S. agriculture are identified and described, particularly in terms of what these trends portend for agricultural shippers absent any change in the economically deregulated en...

  9. Trends in the Proportion of Students with a Disability in Australian Schools, 2000-2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This paper identifies and discusses recent trends in the percentage of students with a disability identified in Australian schools in the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009. In addition, these trends are examined across government and nongovernment schools and considered in the light of the definition of disability used by Australian schools. In…

  10. West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LY, M., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

  11. Annual and seasonal distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature trend over Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lakshmi, V.; Gemitzi, A.; Eleftheriou, D.; Kalea, A.; Kalmintzis, G.; Kiachidis, K.; Koumadoraki, P.; Mpantasis, C.; Spathara, M. E.; Tsolaki, A.; Tzampazidou, M. I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on earth's functions affecting thus all life of the planet. The present study investigates the distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends over Greece, a country in Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main ``hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODIS sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km x 10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1*10-2 oC to -1.3*10-3 oC, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6 * 10-5 oC to 3.1 * 10-3 oC, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the difference between the day and night LST is decreasing.

  12. Antimicrobial resistance trends among Escherichia coli isolates obtained from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States, 2004-2011.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Kevin J; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring antimicrobial resistance trends among bacteria isolated from food animals and people is necessary to inform risk analyses and guide public policy regarding antimicrobial use. Our objectives were to describe the antimicrobial resistance status of Escherichia coli isolates from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to selected antimicrobial agents over time. We collected data retrospectively for all bovine E. coli isolates that were obtained from samples submitted to Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2011. We investigated temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant E. coli for each antimicrobial agent using the Cochran-Armitage trend test. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed on 3373 bovine E. coli isolates from clinical samples submitted during the study period. Overall resistance to each antimicrobial agent ranged from 2.7% (enrofloxacin) to 91.3% (oxytetracycline). There was evidence of a significantly decreasing trend in prevalence of resistance to several agents: chlortetracycline, florfenicol, neomycin, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. However, a significantly increasing trend in prevalence of resistance to enrofloxacin was also evident. These results do not support the idea that current antimicrobial use practices on dairy operations are driving a general increase in the emergence and dissemination of drug-resistant E. coli in the region served by the laboratory. However, resistance to some drugs remained consistently high during the study period, and increasing resistance to enrofloxacin is a key area of concern.

  13. Cancer Trends: Influencing Care and Research Priorities

    Cancer.gov

    Many of the trends being seen in cancer are changing how we view cancer and how we address it, from prompting research to identify the underlying causes of cancers increasing in incidence to informing research on treatment and prevention.

  14. [Pregnancy in the context of general adaptation syndrome].

    PubMed

    Gur'ianov, V A; Pyregov, A V; Tolmachev, G N; Volodin, A V

    2007-01-01

    Based on their own findings and the data available in the literature on pregnancy including that complicated by gestosis, the authors consider these conditions in the context of Selye's general adaptation syndrome. They identify its basic links (the autonomic nervous and cardiovascular systems) the function of which is affected by all the physiological and pathophysiological processes involved in its development. There is a high likelihood of baseline impaired adaption processes in these links, which may lead to an inability to accommodate (dysadaptation) by the moment of delivery. The paper gives the current interpretation of functional disorders, called Zangemeister'a triad in 1913, from the present-day points of view of the evaluation of pregnancy as the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and, probably, adaptation disease. Based on the results of analyzing the data available in the literature, the authors indicate physiologically the basic trends in the modulation of impaired development processes of the general adaptation syndrome towards the completion of pregnancy and surgical delivery.

  15. A TIME-TRENDS STUDY OF THE OCCURRENCES AND ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (CDFs) and certain non- and mono-ortho substituted polychlorinated biphenyls (cp-PCBs) are a general class of chlorinated aromatic compounds that are considered as dioxin-like. Because these chemicals are highly toxic, are resistant to physical, chemical and biological degradation and transformation processes, are highly lipophilic and bioaccumulate into ecological and agricultural food chains, attention has been directed to the identification of anthropogenic source activities with the objective of reducing the overall environmental burden. In this regard, certain fundamental questions arise as to environmental trends over time in terms of environmental concentrations and fluxes to environmental sinks. When did these chemicals initially appear in the general environment and are they related to anthropogenic activities? What has been the chronology of environmental burden from the recent time to decades in the past in terms of environmental concentrations and fluxes to the sink? Is there evidence of any trends in environmental burden with time? To address these fundamental questions, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in collaboration with the United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has completed a time-trends study of the occurrences and levels of CDDs, CDFs and cp-PCBs in the U.S. environment using dateable sediment deposits obtained from 11 freshwater lake

  16. 0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

  17. A multi-institution analysis of general surgery resident peer-reviewed publication trends.

    PubMed

    Forrester, Joseph D; Ansari, Parswa; Are, Chandrakanth; Auyang, Edward; Galante, Joseph M; Jarman, Benjamin T; Smith, Brian R; Watkins, Anthony C; Melcher, Marc L

    2017-04-01

    The process of taking a research project from conception to publication is one way to encourage surgeons to communicate hypothesis, critically assess literature and data, and defend research conclusions to a broad audience. The goal of this study was to define surgery resident publishing epidemiology and identify characteristics of residents and residency programs that might predict increased publication productivity. A survey was administered to eight general surgery residency programs to collect residency and resident variables from 1993-2013. The primary endpoint was the number of first-author publications produced per resident. Secondary endpoints included clinical setting at which the former resident was practicing, fellowship pursued, and manuscript quality. Between 1993 and 2013, 676 residents graduated, median age was 33 years (range: 29-43 years) and 182 (27%) were female. Three hundred and sixty-six (54%) residents produced 1229 first-author publications. Of these, 112 (31%) residents produced one manuscript, 125 (34%) produced two-three manuscripts, 107 (29%) produced four-nine manuscripts, and 22 (6%) produced 10 or more manuscripts. Publishing ≥1 manuscript in residency was associated with a 1.5 (P = 0.01) increased odds of having attended a top-tier research institution for medical school and a 2.3 (P < 0.001) increased odds of having dedicated research years incorporated into residency. Surgeons practicing at academic centers had 1.7 (P = 0.003) greater odds of having attended top-tier medical schools, and 1.5 (P = 0.02) greater odds of publishing during residency. Additional research directed at identifying interventions promoting resident publishing and scholastic achievement should benefit all surgery training programs looking to cultivate the next generation of critically thinking surgeons. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Tennessee Higher Education Profiles and Trends, 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tennessee Higher Education Commission, 2010

    2010-01-01

    Tennessee Code Annotated (T.C.A.) Section 49-7-202 (c) (7) requires the Tennessee Higher Education Commission to "submit a biennial report to the governor and the general assembly, commenting upon major developments, trends, new policies, budgets and financial considerations which in the judgment of the commission will be useful to the…

  19. Tennessee Higher Education Profiles and Trends, 2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tennessee Higher Education Commission, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Tennessee Code Annotated (T.C.A.) Section 49-7-202 (c) (7) requires the Tennessee Higher Education Commission to "submit a biennial report to the governor and the general assembly, commenting upon major developments, trends, new policies, budgets and financial considerations which in the judgment of the commission will be useful to the…

  20. Global Fire Trends from Satellite ATSR Instrument Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arino, Olivier; Casadio, Stefano; Serpe, Danilo

    2010-12-01

    Global night-time fire counts for the years from 1995 to 2009 have been obtained by using the latest version of Along Track Scanning Radiometer TOA radiance products (level 1), and related trends have been estimated. Possible biases due to cloud coverage variations have been assumed to be negligible. The sampling number (acquisition frequency) has also been analysed and proved not to influence our results. Global night-time fire trends have been evaluated by inspecting the time series of hot spots aggregated a) at 2°x2° scale; b) at district/country/region/continent scales, and c) globally. The statistical significance of the estimated trend parameters has been verified by means of the Mann-Kendal test. Results indicate that no trends in the absolute number of spots can be identified at the global scale, that there has been no appreciable shift in the fire season during the last fourteen years, and that statistically significant positive and negative trends are only found when data are aggregated at smaller scales.

  1. Estimation of trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1981-01-01

    The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

  2. Logging productivity and costs in the south: trends and causes

    Treesearch

    Frederick W. Cubbage; James E. Granskog; Bryce Stokes

    1986-01-01

    Trends in forest harvesting equipment costs, labor costs, and harvesting costs in the South since the 1960's are sumarized based on data collected from available price reporting services, Equipmettt costs and wage rates have generally increased at a rate greater than that of inflation in general hut less than that of industrial comodities, Logging costs have...

  3. Relativistic Spin-Orbit Heavy Atom on the Light Atom NMR Chemical Shifts: General Trends Across the Periodic Table Explained.

    PubMed

    Vícha, Jan; Komorovsky, Stanislav; Repisky, Michal; Marek, Radek; Straka, Michal

    2018-06-12

    The importance of relativistic effects on the NMR parameters in heavy-atom (HA) compounds, particularly the SO-HALA (Spin-Orbit Heavy Atom on the Light Atom) effect on NMR chemical shifts, has been known for about 40 years. Yet, a general correlation between the electronic structure and SO-HALA effect has been missing. By analyzing 1 H NMR chemical shifts of the sixth-period hydrides (Cs-At), we discovered general electronic-structure principles and mechanisms that dictate the size and sign of the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts. In brief, partially occupied HA valence shells induce relativistic shielding at the light atom (LA) nuclei, while empty HA valence shells induce relativistic deshielding. In particular, the LA nucleus is relativistically shielded in 5d 2 -5d 8 and 6p 4 HA hydrides and deshielded in 4f 0 , 5d 0 , 6s 0 , and 6p 0 HA hydrides. This general and intuitive concept explains periodic trends in the 1 H NMR chemical shifts along the sixth-period hydrides (Cs-At) studied in this work. We present substantial evidence that the introduced principles have a general validity across the periodic table and can be extended to nonhydride LAs. The decades-old question of why compounds with occupied frontier π molecular orbitals (MOs) cause SO-HALA shielding at the LA nuclei, while the frontier σ MOs cause deshielding is answered. We further derive connection between the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts and Spin-Orbit-induced Electron Deformation Density (SO-EDD), a property that can be obtained easily from differential electron densities and can be represented graphically. SO-EDD provides an intuitive understanding of the SO-HALA effect in terms of the depletion/concentration of the electron density at LA nuclei caused by spin-orbit coupling due to HA in the presence of a magnetic field. Using an analogy between the SO-EDD concept and arguments from classic NMR theory, the complex question of the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts becomes easily understandable for a wide

  4. Publication Trends in Thanatology: An Analysis of Leading Journals.

    PubMed

    Wittkowski, Joachim; Doka, Kenneth J; Neimeyer, Robert A; Vallerga, Michael

    2015-01-01

    To identify important trends in thanatology as a discipline, the authors analyzed over 1,500 articles that appeared in Death Studies and Omega over a 20-year period, coding the category of articles (e.g., theory, application, empirical research), their content focus (e.g., bereavement, death attitudes, end-of-life), and for empirical studies, their methodology (e.g., quantitative, qualitative). In general, empirical research predominates in both journals, with quantitative methods outnumbering qualitative procedures 2 to 1 across the period studied, despite an uptick in the latter methods in recent years. Purely theoretical articles, in contrast, decline in frequency. Research on grief and bereavement is the most commonly occurring (and increasing) content focus of this work, with a declining but still substantial body of basic research addressing death attitudes. Suicidology is also well represented in the corpus of articles analyzed. In contrast, publications on topics such as death education, medical ethics, and end-of-life issues occur with lower frequency, in the latter instances likely due to the submission of such work to more specialized medical journals. Differences in emphasis of Death Studies and Omega are noted, and the analysis of publication patterns is interpreted with respect to overall trends in the discipline and the culture, yielding a broad depiction of the field and some predictions regarding its possible future.

  5. Manpower Trends in Czechoslovakia: 1950 to 1990.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elias, Andrew

    This report, one of a series of manpower studies, presents various series of data on the manpower of Czechoslovakia, especially for the years 1950-70, and two projections of the economically active population for the years 1971-90. The different measures are defined, the population base, manpower trends, and the general manpower situation are…

  6. Evolving Patient Compliance Trends: Integrating Clinical, Insurance, and Extrapolated Socioeconomic Data

    PubMed Central

    Klobusicky, Joseph J.; Aryasomayajula, Arun; Marko, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Efforts toward improving patient compliance in medication focus on either identifying trends in patient features or studying changes through an intervention. Our study seeks to provide an important link between these two approaches through defining trends of evolving compliance. In addition to using clinical covariates provided through insurance claims and health records, we also extracted census based data to provide socioeconomic covariates such as income and population density. Through creating quadrants based on periods of medicine intake, we derive several novel definitions of compliance. These definitions revealed additional compliance trends through considering refill histories later in a patient’s length of therapy. These results suggested that the link between patient features and compliance includes a temporal component, and should be considered in policymaking when identifying compliant subgroups. PMID:26958212

  7. Potential Use of Deep-ocean Bottom Temperatures Measured by NOAA's Operational DART Systems in Identifying Long-term Climate Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eble, M. C.; Mungov, G.

    2016-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration holds more than 3200 months of ocean bottom temperature time series recorded by the network of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) developed for reporting bottom pressure in support of tsunami detection and warning. Measurements were made at more than 40 locations sited predominately within the Pacific Ocean, with a lesser number made at sites in the North Atlantic. Since 2003, time series data were collected at isolated locations and at those in close proximity to sites measuring other ocean and atmosphere parameters (e.g. TAO/TRITON), at depths ranging from approximately 1800 m to nearly 6000 m. A full 2300 months of temperature measurements were made by DART systems deployed at or below 4000 m. These time series offer the potential of narrowing a gap in the global ocean observing system (OceanObs09) by exposing long-term climate trends at more locations in the ocean deep then now available. The potential held by these data given specific limitations is the focus of this investigation. Limitations stem from the primary function of temperature being to correct pressure. The sole function of temperature has historically been to provide a correction to pressure so little attention has been paid to optimizing temperature measurements for long-term investigations. Temperature counts, like those of pressure, are converted to engineering units using calibration coefficients supplied by the manufacturer but temperatures are only coarsely calibrated. In addition, the response of each pressure transducer to ocean pressure varies by deployment and location. Time series of DART temperature frequency counts recorded during specific single deployments were processed and analyzed to identify consistent trends and explore methodologies that could be adopted in order to improve the utility (NOAA, 2014) of DART temperature measurements for climate studies. These data represent a vast amount of untapped

  8. The Canadian general surgery resident: defining current challenges for surgical leadership.

    PubMed

    Tomlinson, Corey; Labossière, Joseph; Rommens, Kenton; Birch, Daniel W

    2012-08-01

    Surgery training programs in Canada and the United States have recognized the need to modify current models of training and education. The shifting demographic of surgery trainees, lifestyle issues and an increased trend toward subspecialization are the major influences. To guide these important educational initiatives, a contemporary profile of Canadian general surgery residents and their impressions of training in Canada is required. We developed and distributed a questionnaire to residents in each Canadian general surgery training program, and residents responded during dedicated teaching time. In all, 186 surveys were returned for analysis (62% response rate). The average age of Canadian general surgery residents is 30 years, 38% are women, 41% are married, 18% have dependants younger than 18 years and 41% plan to add to or start a family during residency. Most (87%) residents plan to pursue postgraduate education. On completion of training, 74% of residents plan to stay in Canada and 49% want to practice in an academic setting. Almost half (42%) of residents identify a poor balance between work and personal life during residency. Forty-seven percent of respondents have appropriate access to mentorship, whereas 37% describe suitable access to career guidance and 40% identify the availability of appropriate social supports. Just over half (54%) believe the stress level during residency is manageable. This survey provides a profile of contemporary Canadian general surgery residents. Important challenges within the residency system are identified. Program directors and chairs of surgery are encouraged to recognize these challenges and intervene where appropriate.

  9. Trends in stratospheric ozone profiles using functional mixed models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, A. Y.; Guillas, S.; Petropavlovskikh, I.

    2013-05-01

    This paper is devoted to the modeling of altitude-dependent patterns of ozone variations over time. Umkher ozone profiles (quarter of Umkehr layer) from 1978 to 2011 are investigated at two locations: Boulder (USA) and Arosa (Switzerland). The study consists of two statistical stages. First we approximate ozone profiles employing an appropriate basis. To capture primary modes of ozone variations without losing essential information, a functional principal component analysis is performed as it penalizes roughness of the function and smooths excessive variations in the shape of the ozone profiles. As a result, data driven basis functions are obtained. Secondly we estimate the effects of covariates - month, year (trend), quasi biennial oscillation, the Solar cycle, arctic oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle - on the principal component scores of ozone profiles over time using generalized additive models. The effects are smooth functions of the covariates, and are represented by knot-based regression cubic splines. Finally we employ generalized additive mixed effects models incorporating a more complex error structure that reflects the observed seasonality in the data. The analysis provides more accurate estimates of influences and trends, together with enhanced uncertainty quantification. We are able to capture fine variations in the time evolution of the profiles such as the semi-annual oscillation. We conclude by showing the trends by altitude over Boulder. The strongly declining trends over 2003-2011 for altitudes of 32-64 hPa show that stratospheric ozone is not yet fully recovering.

  10. Trend Shifts Evident on College Campuses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackburn, Richard D.

    1987-01-01

    Campus issues and trends identified by college union and student activities administrators are considered. The major college issue is alcohol and its impact on the campus. Since all but eight states have adopted the 21 drinking age, there are many administrative concerns, including monitoring campus alcohol service and finding alternatives for pub…

  11. The Evolution of a National Distance Guidance Service: Trends and Challenges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watts, A. G.; Dent, Gareth

    2008-01-01

    Three trends in the evolution of the UK Learndirect advice service are identified: the partial migration from telephone to web-based services; the trend within the telephone service from information/advice-oriented interventions to more guidance-oriented interventions; and the move from a mainly learning-oriented service to a more career-oriented…

  12. Local and national trends in general surgery residents' operative experience: do work hour limitations negatively affect case volume in small community-based programs?

    PubMed

    Markelov, Alexey; Sakharpe, Aniket; Kohli, Harjeet; Livert, David

    2011-12-01

    The goals of this study were to analyze the impact of work hour restrictions on the operative case volume at a small community-based general surgery residency training program and compare changes with the national level. Annual national resident case log data from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) website and case logs of graduating Easton Hospital residents (years 2002-2009) were used for analysis. Weighted average change in total number of cases in our institution was -1.20 (P = 0.52) vs 1.78 (P = 0.07) for the national program average with statistically significant difference on comparison (P = 0.027). We also found significant difference in case volume changes at the national level compared with our institution for the following ACGME defined subcategories: alimentary tract [8.19 (P < 0.01) vs -1.08 (P = 0.54)], abdomen [8.48 (P < 0.01) vs -6.29 (P < 0.01)], breast [1.91 (P = 0.89) vs -3.6 (P = 0.02)], and vascular [4.03 (P = 0.02) vs -3.98 (P = 0.01)]. Comparing the national trend to the community hospital we see that there is total increase in cases at the national level whereas there is a decrease in case volume at the community hospital. These trends can also be followed in ACGME defined subcategories which form the major case load for a general surgical training such as alimentary tract, abdominal, breast, and vascular procedures. We hypothesize that work hour restrictions have been favorable for the larger programs, as these programs were able to better integrate the night float system, restructure their call schedule, and implement institutional modifications which are too resource demanding for smaller training programs.

  13. Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

    PubMed

    Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Trends in software reliability for digital flight control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hecht, H.; Hecht, M.

    1983-01-01

    Software error data of major recent Digital Flight Control Systems Development Programs. The report summarizes the data, compare these data with similar data from previous surveys and identifies trends and disciplines to improve software reliability.

  15. Trends in Mediation Analysis in Nursing Research: Improving Current Practice.

    PubMed

    Hertzog, Melody

    2018-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe common approaches used by nursing researchers to test mediation models and evaluate them within the context of current methodological advances. MEDLINE was used to locate studies testing a mediation model and published from 2004 to 2015 in nursing journals. Design (experimental/correlation, cross-sectional/longitudinal, model complexity) and analysis (method, inclusion of test of mediated effect, violations/discussion of assumptions, sample size/power) characteristics were coded for 456 studies. General trends were identified using descriptive statistics. Consistent with findings of reviews in other disciplines, evidence was found that nursing researchers may not be aware of the strong assumptions and serious limitations of their analyses. Suggestions for strengthening the rigor of such studies and an overview of current methods for testing more complex models, including longitudinal mediation processes, are presented.

  16. Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

  17. Trends in the evolution of life, brains and intelligence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rospars, Jean-Pierre

    2013-07-01

    The f I term of Drake's equation - the fraction of life-bearing planets on which `intelligent' life evolved - has been the subject of much debate in the last few decades. Several leading evolutionary biologists have endorsed the thesis that the probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is vanishingly small. A discussion of this thesis is proposed here that focuses on a key issue in the debate: the existence of evolutionary trends, often presented as trends towards higher complexity, and their possible significance. The present state of knowledge on trends is reviewed. Measurements of quantitative variables that describe important features of the evolution of living organisms - their hierarchical organization, size and biodiversity - and of brains - their overall size, the number and size of their components - in relation to their cognitive abilities, provide reliable evidence of the reality and generality of evolutionary trends. Properties of trends are inferred and frequent misinterpretations (including an excessive stress on mere `complexity') that prevent the objective assessment of trends are considered. Finally, several arguments against the repeatability of evolution to intelligence are discussed. It is concluded that no compelling argument exists for an exceedingly small probability f I. More research is needed before this wide-ranging negative conclusion is accepted.

  18. Environmental Trends and Assumptions as Identified by Two-Year Community, Junior and Technical College Personnel. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Meredith L.

    A study was conducted to determine the perceptions held by two-year college personnel regarding environmental trends related to educational programs, services, resources and economic development. Questionnaires were distributed to personnel in 430 colleges in the north central United States, requesting respondents to indicate their attitudes…

  19. No Trend in the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce

    PubMed Central

    LI, JUI-CHUNG ALLEN; WU, LAWRENCE L.

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any trend in divorce transmission. To reconcile apparent differences in results, we note that the General Social Survey data used by Wolfinger lack information on marital duration, permitting analysis only for whether respondents have divorced by interview. As a result, an apparent decline in divorce transmission could be due to inadequate adjustments for the longer exposures to risk by earlier marriage cohorts, yielding a higher probability of divorce by interview for earlier cohorts relative to more recent cohorts even if divorce risks are identical across all marriage cohorts. We confirm this possibility by using a series of discrete-time hazard logistic regressions to investigate the sensitivity of estimates of trends in divorce transmission to different adjustments for exposure to risk. We conclude that there has been no trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. PMID:19110902

  20. Identifying mediating factors of moral reasoning in science education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeidler, Dana L.; Schafer, Larry E.

    The purpose of this research was to examine how science content knowledge, moral reasoning ability, attitudes, and past experiences mediate the formation of moral judgments on environmental dilemmas. The study was conducted in two phases using environmental science majors and nonscience majors of college age. Phase One determined if environmental science majors exhibited higher levels of moral reasoning on nontechnical environmental social issues than on general social issues and examined the extent to which possible mediating factors accounted for differences in moral reasoning. Phase Two was qualitative in nature, the purpose of which was to observe and identify trends in conversations between subjects as to how certain mediating factors are revealed as people form moral judgments. The framework on which this study was constructed incorporates a progressive educational position; a position that views science education as being interdisciplinary, and a social means to a social end.

  1. Temporal trends of β-haemolytic streptococcal osteoarticular infections in western Norway.

    PubMed

    Oppegaard, Oddvar; Skrede, Steinar; Mylvaganam, Haima; Kittang, Bård Reiakvam

    2016-10-04

    Beta-haemolytic streptococci are important contributors to the global burden of osteoarticular infections (OAI). Knowledge on the disease traits specific for streptococcal OAI, however, remains scarce. We wished to explore temporal trends of OAI caused by Group A Streptococci (GAS), Group B Streptococci (GBS) and Group C and G Streptococci (GCGS), and furthermore, to describe the associated host and pathogen characteristics. All cases of microbiologically verified β-haemolytic streptococcal OAI in Health Region Bergen, Norway, in the period 1999-2013 were retrospectively identified. Clinical data were extracted from medical records. Microbial isolates were submitted to antibiotic susceptibility testing and molecular typing. A total of 24 GAS, 45 GBS and 42 GCGS acute OAI were identified. The cumulative incidence of GCGS OAI, but not GAS or GBS OAI, increased significantly from the first to the last 5-year period (IRR 5.7, p = 0.0003), with the annual incidence peaking at 1.9/100 000 in 2013. GAS OAI generally produced the most acute and severe clinical presentation, whereas GBS and GCGS predominantly affected the elderly, and were significantly associated with the presence of host risk factors of systemic and focal origin, respectively. We found a significantly increasing incidence of GCGS OAI, likely related to the presence of host susceptibility factors, including prosthetic material and pre-existing joint disease. With an increasing application of therapeutic and diagnostic bone and joint procedures, the rising trend of OAI caused by GCGS is likely to continue. Sustained epidemiological attentiveness to GCGS seems warranted.

  2. Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oki, Delwyn S.

    2004-01-01

    The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is

  3. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

  4. Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

    PubMed

    Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

  5. International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

    PubMed

    Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included

  6. Study of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in the primary flight feathers of Strix aluco.

    PubMed

    Varela, Z; García-Seoane, R; Fernández, J A; Carballeira, A; Aboal, J R

    2016-08-01

    Temporal trends in Hg concentrations were determined in the primary flight feathers of 146 specimens of Strix aluco which had died in various Wildlife Recovery Centres in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1997 and 2014. The aim of the study was to determine whether standardization of a primary flight feather (or feathers) in this species is essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations. For this purpose, we had to first standardize the feather(s) analyzed to enable comparison of the levels of Hg detected in different feathers. The results show a high degree of both inter and intra-individual variability but despite that, it was possible to identify P5 as the most representative feather taking into account the amount of metal excreted in each feather and the intra-individual variability: its median was 133ng, which represents 15% (from 7% to 15%) of the total Hg present in all the primary feathers. However, this "standard feather" did not reveal any temporal trend in Hg concentrations for the study period. This lack of trend was found irrespective of the feather considered and it is expected that detection of any existing trend would also not depend on the feather considered. We conclude that use of any particular feather is not essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations, because the pattern will be identified regardless of the feather selected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Year Trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Well-established satellite-derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents are combined to create the global picture of sea ice extents and their changes over the 35-yr period 1979-2013. Results yield a global annual sea ice cycle more in line with the high-amplitude Antarctic annual cycle than the lower-amplitude Arctic annual cycle but trends more in line with the high-magnitude negative Arctic trends than the lower-magnitude positive Antarctic trends. Globally, monthly sea ice extent reaches a minimum in February and a maximum generally in October or November. All 12 months show negative trends over the 35-yr period, with the largest magnitude monthly trend being the September trend, at -68,200 +/- 10,500 sq km/yr (-2.62% 6 +/- 0.40%/decade), and the yearly average trend being -35,000 +/- 5900 sq km/yr (-1.47% +/- 0.25%/decade).

  8. Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Yr Trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Well-established satellite-derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents are combined to create the global picture of sea ice extents and their changes over the 35-yr period 1979-2013. Results yield a global annual sea ice cycle more in line with the high-amplitude Antarctic annual cycle than the lower-amplitude Arctic annual cycle but trends more in line with the high-magnitude negative Arctic trends than the lower-magnitude positive Antarctic trends. Globally, monthly sea ice extent reaches a minimum in February and a maximum generally in October or November. All 12 months show negative trends over the 35-yr period, with the largest magnitude monthly trend being the September trend, at -68200 +/- 10500 km sq yr(exp -1) (-2.62% +/- 0.40%decade(exp -1)), and the yearly average trend being -35000 +/-5900 km sq yr(exp -1) (-1.47% +/- 0.25%decade(exp -1)).

  9. Mask industry assessment trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Greg; Yun, Henry

    2009-01-01

    Microelectronics industry leaders routinely name the cost and cycle time of mask technology and mask supply as top critical issues. A survey was created with support from SEMATECH to gather information about the mask industry as an objective assessment of its overall condition. This year's survey data were presented in detail at BACUS and the detailed trend analysis presented at EMLC. The survey is designed with the input of semiconductor company mask technologists and merchant mask suppliers. This year's assessment is the seventh in the current series of annual reports. With continued industry support, the report can be used as a baseline to gain perspective on the technical and business status of the mask and microelectronics industries. The report will continue to serve as a valuable reference to identify the strengths and opportunities of the mask industry. The results will be used to guide future investments on critical path issues. This year's survey is basically the same as the surveys in 2005 through 2007. Questions are grouped into seven categories: General Business Profile Information, Data Processing, Yields and Yield Loss, Mechanisms, Delivery Times, Returns, and Services. (Examples are given below). Within each category is a multitude of questions that creates a detailed profile of both the business and technical status of the critical mask industry.

  10. International trends in health science librarianship: part 3--the Nordic countries.

    PubMed

    Haglund, Lotta; Buset, Karen J; Kristiansen, Hanne M; Ovaska, Tuulevi; Murphy, Jeannette

    2012-09-01

    This is the third in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors carried out a survey of librarians in Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland to identify common developments in their countries. A focus on pedagogy was seen as the most important trend. Future issues will track trends in Southern Europe and Latin America. JM. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

  11. Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şen, Zekâi

    2018-01-01

    Trend analyses are the necessary tools for depicting possible general increase or decrease in a given time series. There are many versions of trend identification methodologies such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's tau, Sen's slope, regression line, and Şen's innovative trend analysis. The literature has many papers about the use, cons and pros, and comparisons of these methodologies. In this paper, a completely new approach is proposed based on the crossing properties of a time series. It is suggested that the suitable trend from the centroid of the given time series should have the maximum number of crossings (total number of up-crossings or down-crossings). This approach is applicable whether the time series has dependent or independent structure and also without any dependence on the type of the probability distribution function. The validity of this method is presented through extensive Monte Carlo simulation technique and its comparison with other existing trend identification methodologies. The application of the methodology is presented for a set of annual daily extreme rainfall time series from different parts of Turkey and they have physically independent structure.

  12. More evidence for trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce: a completed cohort approach using data from the general social survey.

    PubMed

    Wolfinger, Nicholas H

    2011-05-01

    Many studies have demonstrated that the children of divorce are disproportionately likely to end their own marriages. In previous work, I showed that the transmission of divorce between generations weakened substantially for General Social Survey (GSS) respondents interviewed between 1973 and 1996 (Wolfinger 1999); Li and Wu (2006, 2008) contended that my finding is a methodological artifact of the GSS's lack of marriage duration data. This article presents a completed-cohort approach to studying divorce using the GSS. The results confirm a decline in the probability of divorce transmission that cannot be explained by the right-censoring bias alleged by Li and Wu. This finding contributes to an ongoing debate about trends in the negative consequences of parental divorce, as well as demonstrating a useful approach to right-censored phenomena when event history data are not available.

  13. Trends in Distance Education Research: A Content Analysis of Journals 2009-2013

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozkurt, Aras; Akgun-Ozbek, Ela; Yilmazel, Sibel; Erdogdu, Erdem; Ucar, Hasan; Guler, Emel; Sezgin, Sezan; Karadeniz, Abdulkadir; Sen-Ersoy, Nazife; Goksel-Canbek, Nil; Dincer, Gokhan Deniz; Ari, Suleyman; Aydin, Cengiz Hakan

    2015-01-01

    This study intends to explore the current trends in the field of distance education research during the period of 2009-2013. The trends were identified by an extensive review of seven peer reviewed scholarly journals: "The American Journal of Distance Education" (AJDE), "Distance Education" (DE), "The European Journal of…

  14. Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John; Smith, Lesley

    2005-06-01

    An analysis and evaluation has been performed of global datasets on column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water). For years before 1996, the Ross and Elliott radiosonde dataset is used for validation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses ERA-40. Only the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) dataset from remote sensing systems (RSS) has credible means, variability and trends for the oceans, but it is available only for the post-1988 period. Major problems are found in the means, variability and trends from 1988 to 2001 for both reanalyses from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the ERA-40 reanalysis over the oceans, and for the NASA water vapor project (NVAP) dataset more generally. NCEP and ERA-40 values are reasonable over land where constrained by radiosondes. Accordingly, users of these data should take great care in accepting results as real. The problems highlight the need for reprocessing of data, as has been done by RSS, and reanalyses that adequately take account of the changing observing system. Precipitable water variability for 1988 2001 is dominated by the evolution of ENSO and especially the structures that occurred during and following the 1997 98 El Niño event. The evidence from SSM/I for the global ocean suggests that recent trends in precipitable water are generally positive and, for 1988 through 2003, average 0.40±0.09 mm per decade or 1.3±0.3% per decade for the ocean as a whole, where the error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Over the oceans, the precipitable water variability relates very strongly to changes in SSTs, both in terms of spatial structure of trends and temporal variability (with a regression coefficient for 30°N 30°S of 7.8% K-1) and is consistent with the assumption of fairly constant relative humidity. In the tropics, the trends are also influenced by changes in rainfall which, in turn, are closely associated with the mean flow and convergence of moisture

  15. Selectivity trend of gas separation through nanoporous graphene

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Hongjun; Chen, Zhongfang; Dai, Sheng

    2015-04-15

    By means of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we demonstrate that porous graphene can efficiently separate gases according to their molecular sizes. The flux sequence from the classical MD simulation is H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4}, which generally follows the trend in the kinetic diameters. This trend is also confirmed from the fluxes based on the computed free energy barriers for gas permeation using the umbrella sampling method and kinetic theory of gases. Both brute-force MD simulations and free-energy calcualtions lead to the flux trend consistent with experiments. Case studies of two compositions of CO{sub 2}/N{sub 2} mixtures further demonstrate themore » separation capability of nanoporous graphene. - Graphical abstract: Classical molecular dynamics simulations show the flux trend of H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4} for their permeation through a porous graphene, in excellent agreement with a recent experiment. - Highlights: • Classical MD simulations show the flux trend of H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4} for their permeation through a porous graphene. • Free energy calculations yield permeation barriers for those gases. • Selectivities for several gas pairs are estimated from the free-energy barriers and the kinetic theory of gases. • The selectivity trend is in excellent agreement with a recent experiment.« less

  16. A novel web informatics approach for automated surveillance of cancer mortality trends

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tourassi, Georgia; Yoon, Hong -Jun; Xu, Songhua

    Cancer surveillance data are collected every year in the United States via the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). General trends are closely monitored to measure the nation’s progress against cancer. The objective of this study was to apply a novel web informatics approach for enabling fully automated monitoring of cancer mortality trends. The approach involves automated collection and text mining of online obituaries to derive the age distribution, geospatial, and temporal trends of cancer deaths in the US. Using breast and lung cancer asmore » examples, we mined 23,850 cancer-related and 413,024 general online obituaries spanning the timeframe 2008–2012. There was high correlation between the web-derived mortality trends and the official surveillance statistics reported by NCI with respect to the age distribution (ρ = 0.981 for breast; ρ = 0.994 for lung), the geospatial distribution (ρ = 0.939 for breast; ρ = 0.881 for lung), and the annual rates of cancer deaths (ρ = 0.661 for breast; ρ = 0.839 for lung). Additional experiments investigated the effect of sample size on the consistency of the web-based findings. Altogether, our study findings support web informatics as a promising, cost-effective way to dynamically monitor spatiotemporal cancer mortality trends.« less

  17. A novel web informatics approach for automated surveillance of cancer mortality trends

    DOE PAGES

    Tourassi, Georgia; Yoon, Hong -Jun; Xu, Songhua

    2016-04-01

    Cancer surveillance data are collected every year in the United States via the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). General trends are closely monitored to measure the nation’s progress against cancer. The objective of this study was to apply a novel web informatics approach for enabling fully automated monitoring of cancer mortality trends. The approach involves automated collection and text mining of online obituaries to derive the age distribution, geospatial, and temporal trends of cancer deaths in the US. Using breast and lung cancer asmore » examples, we mined 23,850 cancer-related and 413,024 general online obituaries spanning the timeframe 2008–2012. There was high correlation between the web-derived mortality trends and the official surveillance statistics reported by NCI with respect to the age distribution (ρ = 0.981 for breast; ρ = 0.994 for lung), the geospatial distribution (ρ = 0.939 for breast; ρ = 0.881 for lung), and the annual rates of cancer deaths (ρ = 0.661 for breast; ρ = 0.839 for lung). Additional experiments investigated the effect of sample size on the consistency of the web-based findings. Altogether, our study findings support web informatics as a promising, cost-effective way to dynamically monitor spatiotemporal cancer mortality trends.« less

  18. The method of trend analysis of parameters time series of gas-turbine engine state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hvozdeva, I.; Myrhorod, V.; Derenh, Y.

    2017-10-01

    This research substantiates an approach to interval estimation of time series trend component. The well-known methods of spectral and trend analysis are used for multidimensional data arrays. The interval estimation of trend component is proposed for the time series whose autocorrelation matrix possesses a prevailing eigenvalue. The properties of time series autocorrelation matrix are identified.

  19. Using Text Analytics of AJPE Article Titles to Reveal Trends In Pharmacy Education Over the Past Two Decades.

    PubMed

    Pedrami, Farnoush; Asenso, Pamela; Devi, Sachin

    2016-08-25

    Objective. To identify trends in pharmacy education during last two decades using text mining. Methods. Articles published in the American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education (AJPE) in the past two decades were compiled in a database. Custom text analytics software was written using Visual Basic programming language in the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) editor of Excel 2007. Frequency of words appearing in article titles was calculated using the custom VBA software. Data were analyzed to identify the emerging trends in pharmacy education. Results. Three educational trends emerged: active learning, interprofessional, and cultural competency. Conclusion. The text analytics program successfully identified trends in article topics and may be a useful compass to predict the future course of pharmacy education.

  20. Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramberg, I. B.; Morgan, P.

    1984-01-01

    Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

  1. A climate trend analysis of Uganda

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

  2. Adolescent pregnancy and childbearing: levels and trends in developed countries.

    PubMed

    Singh, S; Darroch, J E

    2000-01-01

    Adolescent pregnancy occurs in all societies, but the level of teenage pregnancy and childbearing varies from country to country. A cross-country analysis of birth and abortion measures is valuable for understanding trends, for identifying countries that are exceptional and for seeing where further in-depth studies are needed to understand observed patterns. Birth, abortion and population data were obtained from various sources, such as national vital statistics reports, official statistics, published national and international sources, and government statistical offices. Trend data on adolescent birthrates were compiled for 46 countries over the period 1970-1995. Abortion rates for a recent year were available for 33 of the 46 countries, and data on trends in abortion rates could be gathered for 25 of the 46 countries. The level of adolescent pregnancy varies by a factor of almost 10 across the developed countries, from a very low rate in the Netherlands (12 pregnancies per 1,000 adolescents per year) to an extremely high rate in the Russian Federation (more than 100 per 1,000). Japan and most western European countries have very low or low pregnancy rates (under 40 per 1,000); moderate rates (40-69 per 1,000) occur in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and a number of European countries. A group of five countries--Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, the Russian Federation and the United States--have pregnancy rates of 70 or more per 1,000. The adolescent birthrate has declined in the majority of industrialized countries over the past 25 years, and in some cases has been more than halved. Similarly, pregnancy rates in 12 of the 18 countries with accurate abortion reporting showed declines. Decreases in the adolescent abortion rate, however, were less prevalent. The trend toward lower adolescent birthrates and pregnancy rates over the past 25 years is widespread and is occurring across the industrialized world, suggesting that the reasons for this general trend are broader

  3. A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capparelli, V.; Franzke, C.; Vecchio, A.; Freeman, M. P.; Watkins, N. W.; Carbone, V.

    2013-07-01

    This study presents a nonlinear spatiotemporal analysis of 1167 station temperature records from the United States Historical Climatology Network covering the period from 1898 through 2008. We use the empirical mode decomposition method to extract the generally nonlinear trends of each station. The statistical significance of each trend is assessed against three null models of the background climate variability, represented by stochastic processes of increasing temporal correlation length. We find strong evidence that more than 50% of all stations experienced a significant trend over the last century with respect to all three null models. A spatiotemporal analysis reveals a significant cooling trend in the South-East and significant warming trends in the rest of the contiguous U.S. It also shows that the warming trend appears to have migrated equatorward. This shows the complex spatiotemporal evolution of climate change at local scales.

  4. Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, Clinton M.; Derry, Logan E.

    2012-08-01

    In an unchanging climate, record-breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record-breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961-2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.

  5. Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    DOE PAGES

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

    2016-02-03

    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates

  6. European Trends in the Development of Occupations and Qualifications. Volume I. CEDEFOP Reference Document.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sellin, Burkart

    This document is intended to provide updated information on the most important trends in the development of occupations and qualifications in Europe in the face of current demographic, social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural challenges. It provides a general summary of the most important trends at the macro level, and makes…

  7. Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

    2017-12-01

    Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

  8. When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-03-01

    A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only; the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby, the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting timescale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus, minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are also given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, and in southwestern and southeastern Europe, summer trends in mean precipitation already emerge within the next few decades. However, across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend, in general, emerges earlier.

  9. Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidalgo, H. G.

    2013-12-01

    A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

  10. Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

  11. Anomaly Trends for Missions to Mars: Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Nelson W.; Hoffman, Alan R.

    2008-01-01

    The long term flight operations of the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey spacecraft give us an excellent chance to examine the operations of two long lived spacecraft in orbit around Mars during overlapping time periods. This study examined the anomalies for each mission maintained for NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. By examining the anomalies each mission encountered during their multiyear missions, trends were identified related to when anomalies occurred during each mission, the types of anomalies encountered, and corrective actions taken to mitigate the effects of the anomalies. As has been discovered in previous studies the numbers of anomalies directly correlate with mission activity and show a decreasing trend with elapsed mission time. Trend analysis also identified a heavy emphasis on software as the source or solution to anomalies for both missions.

  12. Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

  13. Water-quality trends for selected sites in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds, Montana, based on data collected during water years 1997-2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sando, Steven K.; Clark, Melanie L.; Cleasby, Thomas E.; Barnhart, Elliott P.

    2015-01-01

    Trend results for sites in the Tenmile Creek watershed generally are more variable and difficult to interpret than for sites in the Boulder River watershed. Trend results for Tenmile Creek above City Diversion (site 11) and Minnehaha Creek near Rimini (site 12) for water years 2000–13 indicate decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium, copper, and zinc. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of copper generally are moderate and statistically significant for sites 11 and 12. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium and zinc for site 11 are minor to small and not statistically significant; however, the magnitudes for site 12 are moderate and statistically significant. In general, patterns in FACs for Tenmile Creek near Rimini (site 13) are not well represented by fitted trends within the short data collection period, which might indicate that the trend-analysis structure of the study is not appropriate for describing trends in FACs for site 13. The large decreasing trend in FACs of suspended sediment is the strongest indication of change in water quality during the short period of record for site 13; however, this trend is not statistically significant.

  14. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  15. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    PubMed

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna

    2017-12-01

    This paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60-90 years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highlight a general decrease of the annual rainfall at a mean rate of 22 mm per decade but, in many cases, the tendencies are not statistically significant. Conversely, the annual mean temperature exhibits an upward trend, statistically significant in the majority of cases, with a warming rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. With reference to the model projections and the annual precipitation, the results are not concordant; the deviations between models in the same period are higher than the future changes at medium- (2031-2040) and long-term (2051-2060) and highlight that the model uncertainty and variability is high. According to the climate model projections, the warming of the study area is unequivocal; a mean positive increment of 0.8 °C at medium-term and 1.1 °C at long-term is expected with respect to the reference period (2003-2012) and the scenario RCP4.5; the increments grow to 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C for the RCP8.5. Finally, in order to check the observed climate change signals, the climate model projections were compared with the trends based on the historical data. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with reference to the precipitation; a systematic underestimation of the trend values with respect to the models, at medium- and long-term, is observed for the temperature data.

  17. Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

    PubMed

    Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

    2009-03-01

    The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

  18. Growth Dynamics of Patient-Provider Internet Communication: Trend Analysis Using the Health Information National Trends Survey (2003 to 2013)

    PubMed Central

    Tarver, Will L; Menser, Terri; Hesse, Bradford W; Johnson, Tyler J; Beckjord, Ellen; Ford, Eric W

    2018-01-01

    Background Communication is key in chronic disease management, and the internet has altered the manner in which patients and providers can exchange information. Adoption of secure messaging differs among patients due to the digital divide that keeps some populations from having effective access to online resources. Objective This study aimed to examine the current state of online patient-provider communication, exploring trends over time in the use of online patient-provider communication tools. Methods A 3-part analytic process was used to study the following: (1) reanalysis, (2) close replication across years, and (3) trend analysis extension. During the reanalysis stage, the publicly available Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 1 and 2 data were used with the goal of identifying the precise analytic methodology used in a prior study, published in 2007. The original analysis was extended to add 3 additional data years (ie, 2008, 2011, and 2013) using the original analytical approach with the purpose of identifying trends over time. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze pooled data across all years, with year as an added predictor, in addition to a model for each individual data year. Results The odds of internet users to communicate online with health care providers was significantly and increasingly higher year-over-year, starting in 2003 (2005: odds ratio [OR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.03-1.68; 2008: OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.76-2.59; 2011: OR 2.92, 95% CI 2.33-3.66; and 2013: OR 5.77; 95% CI 4.62-7.20). Statistically significant socio-economic factors found to be associated with internet users communicating online with providers included age, having health insurance, having a history of cancer, and living in an urban area of residence. Conclusions The proportion of internet users communicating online with their health care providers has significantly increased since 2003. Although these trends are encouraging, access challenges still exist for some

  19. Media Scrutiny of Higher Education: An Ongoing Challenge and Long-Term Trend

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peyronel, Anthony C.

    2004-01-01

    Increasing skepticism was identified as a key trend in a recent American Journalism Review assessment of media coverage of higher education. However, this trend is hardly new, as American colleges and universities have been subjected to intense media scrutiny for at least the last two decades. This article examines the frequently adversarial…

  20. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, C. L.; Cavalieri, D. J.

    2012-01-01

    In sharp contrast to the decreasing sea ice coverage of the Arctic, in the Antarctic the sea ice cover has, on average, expanded since the late 1970s. More specifically, satellite passive-microwave data for the period November 1978 - December 2010 reveal an overall positive trend in ice extents of 17,100 +/- 2,300 square km/yr. Much of the increase, at 13,700 +/- 1,500 square km/yr, has occurred in the region of the Ross Sea, with lesser contributions from the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean. One region, that of the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has, like the Arctic, instead experienced significant sea ice decreases, with an overall ice extent trend of -8,200 +/- 1,200 square km/yr. When examined through the annual cycle over the 32-year period 1979-2010, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover as a whole experienced positive ice extent trends in every month, ranging in magnitude from a low of 9,100 +/- 6,300 square km/yr in February to a high of 24,700 +/- 10,000 square km/yr in May. The Ross Sea and Indian Ocean also had positive trends in each month, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas had negative trends in each month, and the Weddell Sea and Western Pacific Ocean had a mixture of positive and negative trends. Comparing ice-area results to ice-extent results, in each case the ice-area trend has the same sign as the ice-extent trend, but differences in the magnitudes of the two trends identify regions with overall increasing ice concentrations and others with overall decreasing ice concentrations. The strong pattern of decreasing ice coverage in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas region and increasing ice coverage in the Ross Sea region is suggestive of changes in atmospheric circulation. This is a key topic for future research.

  1. Ozone Trends Across the United States over a Period of Decreasing NOx and VOC Emissions

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this work, we evaluate ambient ozone trends at urban, suburban, and rural monitoring sites across the United States over a period of decreasing NOx and VOC emissions (1998–2013). We find that decreasing ozone trends generally occur in the summer, in less urbanized areas,...

  2. Longitudinal trends in HbA1c patterns and association with outcomes: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Luo, Miyang; Tan, Kristin Hui Xian; Tan, Chuen Seng; Lim, Wei Yen; Tai, E-Shyong; Venkataraman, Kavita

    2018-04-17

    This study aimed to review studies that identified patterns of longitudinal HbA 1c trends in patients with diabetes and to summarize factors and outcomes associated with distinct trajectory patterns. PubMed and Web of Science were systematically searched for studies examining HbA 1c trends among patients with diabetes from database inception through September 2017. Articles were included if they met the following inclusion criteria: (a) longitudinal study of subjects with diabetes only, (b) use of serial measurements of HbA 1c , and (c) analysis of the trend of HbA 1c using group-based trajectory approaches. Twenty studies were included, 11 on type 1 diabetes and 9 on type 2 diabetes. These studies identified 2 to 6 HbA 1c trajectory patterns. The most commonly identified patterns included stable HbA 1c around 7.0% and at levels between 8.0% and 9.9%, which usually captured the HbA 1c pattern among the majority of subjects in the study population. Unstable patterns identified included increasing HbA 1c trend, decreasing HbA 1c trend, and non-linear patterns. These patterns were associated with differential risk of disease outcomes, over and beyond single-point HbA 1c measures. Age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes duration, disease management frequency, cardiovascular risk factors, insulin treatment, family environment, and psychosocial factors were the most frequently reported factors associated with membership of specific HbA 1c pattern groups. Common patterns of longitudinal HbA 1c trends were identified despite heterogeneity among the studies. A better understanding of what underlies these different patterns may provide opportunities to tailor therapies and care for these patients to reduce adverse outcomes. © 2018 The Authors. Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Investigation of DMSD Trend in the ISS Water Processor Assembly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter, Layne; Bowman, Elizabeth; Wilson, Mark; Gentry, Greg; Rector, Tony

    2013-01-01

    The ISS Water Recovery System (WRS) is responsible for providing potable water to the crew, to the Oxygen Generation System (OGS) for oxygen production via electrolysis, to the Waste & Hygiene Compartment (WHC) for flush water, and for experiments on ISS. The WRS includes the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and the Urine Processor Assembly (UPA). The WPA processes condensate from the cabin air and distillate produced by the UPA. In 2010, an increasing trend in the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in the potable water was ultimately identified as dimethylsilanediol (DMSD). The increasing trend was ultimately reversed after replacing the WPA's two multifiltration beds. However, the reason for the TOC trend and the subsequent recovery was not understood. A subsequent trend occurred in 2012. This paper summarizes the current understanding of the fate of DMSD in the WPA, how the increasing TOC trend occurred, and the plan for modifying the WPA to prevent recurrence.

  4. Health Occupations Trends and Issues: Issue Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Covelli, Nicholas J.; And Others

    A study was conducted to identify the trends occurring within the health service industry and their impact on the providers of health care; determine shifts or emerging occupational areas within health services; and assess local health service providers' staffing patterns and anticipated needs. The study involved meetings with local hospital…

  5. Trends in Career and Technical Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rojewski, Jay W.; Asunda, Paul; Kim, Soo Jung

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this literature review was to identify current trends and issues in research focusing on career and technical education (CTE). The primary sources of literature for this review included all research articles published in three refereed scholarly journals--"Career and Technical Education Research," "Journal of Career and Technical…

  6. Trend of Body Compositions with Aging among Chinese Adolescents, Adults and Elders.

    PubMed

    Xu, T; Zhu, G; Han, S

    2015-12-01

    Rare reports can be found about sex- and age-specific body composition survey among Chinese population. The aim of this study is to explore the change of sex-specific body compositions with aging among Chinese adolescents, adults and elders. In a large-scale population survey about physiological constants and health conditions, 75,714 subjects who aged from 8 to 80 completed body composition array. Body mass index (BMI), percentage body fat (PBF), water percentage of body weight (WPBW), water percentage of lean body mass (WPLBM), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and basic metabolic rate were examined with Biodynamics BI-310 body composition analyzer. General obesity is defined as BMI equal to or greater than 28 kg/m2. The prevalence rates of general obesity were 9.4% for males and 7.7% for females respectively. With aging, PBF and FMI showed a U-shape curvilinear trend and WPBW showed a parabolic trend for males. At same age group: 18-19 age groups, PBF and FMI declined to the valley and WPBW rose to the peak. For females, PBF, WPBW and FMI changed in a linear trend. The values of WPLBM and FFMI showed same curvilinear trend for two genders. WPLBM changed in a U-shape trend and touched the valley in twenties for males and in 18-19 age groups for females. The value of FFMI was larger for older age groups in the younger generation but smaller in the older generation. A parabolic trend peaking was seen in the thirties for males and in the forties for females. Regression models with age as independent variable showed that the larger rate of increase of PBF and smaller rates of increase for WPBM and WPLBM with aging for males. This study presents detailed data about sex-specific body composition conditions. Different change trend with aging was found about body composition conditions.

  7. Beauty and the Beast: The Mission of General Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menke, Pamela Glenn

    1979-01-01

    "Back to Basics" has become a popular phrase to describe the current trend in higher education's general education requirements. What must be addressed beyond the evident need for basic skills is the nature of the "mission" of the general education curriculum component. (Author)

  8. Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

    2017-04-04

    Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

  9. Epistemological Trends in Educational Leadership Studies in Israel: 2000-2012

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eyal, Ori; Rom, Noa

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify the epistemological trends in the Israeli Educational Leadership (EL) scholarship between the years 2000 and 2012. Design/methodology/approach: The 51 studies included in this review were detected through a systematic search in online academic databases. Abstracts of studies identified as being…

  10. The Clarification to the Misapprehension on General Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhou, Juan; Chen, Wen-jin

    2006-01-01

    It's a trend that many countries over the world try their best to enhance General Education in order to actualize educational reform in higher education. This paper clarifies eight misapprehensions about General Education from its meaning, content and the relationship with Specialized Education in the hope of having correct understandings to…

  11. Antiepileptic Drugs 2012: Recent Advances and Trends

    PubMed Central

    Sirven, Joseph I.; Noe, Katherine; Hoerth, Matthew; Drazkowski, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    There are now 24 antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) approved for use in epilepsy in the United States by the Food and Drug Administration. A literature search was conducted using PubMed, MEDLINE, and Google for all English-language articles that discuss newly approved AEDs and the use of AEDs in epilepsy in the United States from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2011. Five new agents were identified that have come onto the market within the past 2 years. Moreover, 3 trends involving AEDs have become clinically important and must be considered by all who treat patients with epilepsy. These trends include issues of generic substitution of AEDs, pharmacogenomics predicting serious adverse events in certain ethnic populations, and the issue of the suicide risk involving the entire class of AEDs. This article discusses the most recent AEDs approved for use in the United States and the 3 important trends shaping the modern medical management of epilepsy. PMID:22958992

  12. Planned Change in Education: Current Trends of Inquiry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Meter, Eddy J.; Scollay, Susan J.

    1985-01-01

    Four trends within planned change literature are identified: the increased use of the concept of limited rationality; a better understanding of the implementation process; more exploration of issues dealing with evaluation; and the development of new models for understanding planned change. (MD)

  13. Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.

  14. Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Methods Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Results Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Conclusion Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of

  15. Challenges, issues and trends in fall detection systems

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Since falls are a major public health problem among older people, the number of systems aimed at detecting them has increased dramatically over recent years. This work presents an extensive literature review of fall detection systems, including comparisons among various kinds of studies. It aims to serve as a reference for both clinicians and biomedical engineers planning or conducting field investigations. Challenges, issues and trends in fall detection have been identified after the reviewing work. The number of studies using context-aware techniques is still increasing but there is a new trend towards the integration of fall detection into smartphones as well as the use of machine learning methods in the detection algorithm. We have also identified challenges regarding performance under real-life conditions, usability, and user acceptance as well as issues related to power consumption, real-time operations, sensing limitations, privacy and record of real-life falls. PMID:23829390

  16. Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2009-09-01

    directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

  17. Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shanley, James B.; Chalmers, Ann T.; Mack, Thomas J.; Smith, Thor E.; Harte, Philip T.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

  18. Hip Arthroscopy Surgical Volume Trends and 30-Day Postoperative Complications.

    PubMed

    Cvetanovich, Gregory L; Chalmers, Peter N; Levy, David M; Mather, Richard C; Harris, Joshua D; Bush-Joseph, Charles A; Nho, Shane J

    2016-07-01

    To determine hip arthroscopy surgical volume trends from 2006 to 2013 using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, the incidence of 30-day complications of hip arthroscopy, and patient and surgical risk factors for complications. Patients who underwent hip arthroscopy from 2006 to 2013 were identified in the NSQIP database for the over 400 NSQIP participating hospitals from the United States using Current Procedural Terminology and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Trends in number of hip arthroscopy procedures per year were analyzed. Complications in the 30-day period after hip arthroscopy were identified. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for complications. We identified 1,338 patients who underwent hip arthroscopy, with a mean age of 39.5 ± 13.0 years. Female patients comprised 59.6%. Hip arthroscopy procedures became 25 times more common in 2013 than 2006 (P < .001). Major complications occurred in 8 patients (0.6%), and minor complications occurred in 11 patients (0.8%); overall complications occurred in 18 patients (1.3%) (1 patient had 2 complications). The most common complications were bleeding requiring a transfusion (5, 0.4%), return to the operating room (4, 0.3%), superficial infection not requiring return to the operating room (3, 0.2%), deep venous thrombosis (2, 0.1%), and death (2, 0.1%). Multivariate analysis showed that regional/monitored anesthesia care as opposed to general anesthesia (P = .005; odds ratio, 0.102) and a history of patient steroid use (P = .05; odds ratio, 8.346) were independent predictors of minor complications in the 30 days after hip arthroscopy. Hip arthroscopy is an increasingly common procedure, with a 25-fold increase from 2006 to 2013. There is a low incidence of 30-day postoperative complications (1.3%), most commonly bleeding requiring a transfusion, return to the operating room, and superficial

  19. Trends in alcohol-impaired driving in Canada.

    PubMed

    Vanlaar, Ward; Robertson, Robyn; Marcoux, Kyla; Mayhew, Daniel; Brown, Steve; Boase, Paul

    2012-09-01

    While a general decreasing trend in the number of persons killed in a traffic crash involving a drinking driver has occurred in Canada since the 1980s, it is evident that much of this decrease occurred in the 1990s. Since 2002, less progress has been made as the number of persons killed in crashes involving drinking drivers remains high. To better understand the current situation, this paper describes trends in drinking and driving in Canada from 1998 to 2011 using multiple indicators based on data collected for the Traffic Injury Research Foundation's (TIRF) Road Safety Monitor (RSM), the National Opinion Poll on Drinking and Driving, and trends in alcohol-related crashes based on data collected for TIRF's national Fatality Database in Canada. There has been a continued and consistent decrease in the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver in Canada. This remains true when looking at the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver per 100,000 population and per 100,000 licensed drivers. This decreasing trend is also still apparent when considering the percentage of persons killed in a traffic crash in Canada involving a drinking driver although less pronounced. Data from the RSM further show that the percentage of those who reported driving after they thought they were over the legal limit has also declined. However, regardless of the apparent decreasing trend in drinking driving fatalities and behaviour, reductions have been relatively modest, and fatalities in crashes involving drivers who have consumed alcohol remain high at unacceptable levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Global and Regional Trends of Aerosol Optical Depth over Land and Ocean Using SeaWiFS Measurements from 1997 to 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsu, N. C.; Gautam, R.; Sayer, A. M.; Bettenhausen, C.; Li, C.; Jeong, M. J.; Tsay, S. C.; Holben, B. N.

    2012-01-01

    Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, the SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-year mission. Our results indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On a smaller scale, different trends are found for different regions. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

  1. Trends & Issues in Library & Information Science 1990.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisenberg, Michael B.; And Others

    This synthesis paper provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the field of library and information science based on the results of a content analysis of its literature, including selected journals, conference proceedings, dissertations, and ERIC input. The 14 trends and issues identified by the analysis include developments in technology,…

  2. Trends in total hospital financial performance under the prospective payment system.

    PubMed

    Fisher, C R

    1992-01-01

    In this article, the author examines trends in determinants of total hospital facility revenues, expenses, and net profits during the period 1977-89. Measures of change in transaction prices are developed, which enable an analysis of trends in real hospital outputs and total factor productivity. The main source of hospital spending growth in excess of the gross national product is identified as growth in hospital employee compensation.

  3. US Emergency Department Trends in Imaging for Pediatric Nontraumatic Abdominal Pain.

    PubMed

    Niles, Lauren M; Goyal, Monika K; Badolato, Gia M; Chamberlain, James M; Cohen, Joanna S

    2017-10-01

    To describe national emergency department (ED) trends in computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound imaging for the evaluation of pediatric nontraumatic abdominal pain from 2007 through 2014. We used data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey to measure trends in CT and ultrasound use among children with nontraumatic abdominal pain. We performed multivariable logistic regression to measure the strength of the association of ED type (pediatric versus general ED) with CT and ultrasound use adjusting for potential confounding variables. Of an estimated 21.1 million ED visits for nontraumatic abdominal pain, 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.2%-16.0%) had CT imaging only, 10.9% (95% CI, 9.7%-12.1%) had ultrasound imaging only, and 1.9% (95% CI, 1.4%-2.4%) received both CT and ultrasound. The overall use of CT and ultrasound did not significantly change over the study period ( P trend .63 and .90, respectively). CT use was lower among children treated in pediatric EDs compared with general EDs (adjusted odds ratio 0.34; 95% CI, 0.17-0.69). Conversely, ultrasound use was higher among children treated in pediatric EDs compared with general EDs (adjusted odds ratio 2.14; 95% CI, 1.29-3.55). CT imaging for pediatric patients with nontraumatic abdominal pain has plateaued since 2007 after the steady increase seen in the preceding 9 years. Among this population, an increased likelihood of CT imaging was demonstrated in general EDs compared with pediatric EDs, in which there was a higher likelihood of ultrasound imaging. Dissemination of pediatric-focused radiology protocols to general EDs may help optimize radiation exposure in children. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  4. Trends in day uses of parks and forests

    Treesearch

    Joseph T. O' Leary; John Peine; Dale Blahna

    1980-01-01

    Trends for seven day use activities were compared from national recreation survey data collected in 1965, 1972 and 1977. General increases in involvement of the total population was found for the 1965-1977 period. Little change in participation was found for racial and sex characteristics, but shifts in participation were found for age and education groups that could...

  5. International programs - A growing trend

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bunner, A. N.

    1990-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has collaborated successfully in space science missions with a multiplicity of partners, including the European Space Agency, Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan, and the Soviet Union, among others. These collaborations generally arise out of common scientific goals and in the interest of economizing to take advantage of skills and capabilities among the partners. A trend towards increased cooperation in space is expected to continue as the global scientific community works together to plan future space science missions and the missions become more sophisticated.

  6. Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Nishihama, Masahiro

    2009-01-01

    Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

  7. Statistical trend analysis of groundwater data at Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bhinge, D; Patel, J.; Skibinski, J.N.

    1994-12-31

    Statistical regression techniques were used to characterize temporal trends in groundwater monitoring data collected between 1980 and 1994 at Former Area P Lagoons, Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant (LAAP), a National Priorities List (NPL) site. Groundwater sampling data were evaluated for 12 wells (9 in the shallow aquifer and 3 in the deeper aquifer) and 9 contaminants of concern (COCs). A trend index (TI) was calculated from the sum of the number of improving and stable trends minus the number of deteriorating trends for each contaminant, each well, and the overall site. A positive TI indicates an improving trend for themore » site, contaminant, or well. Conversely, a negative TI indicates a deteriorating trend. The overall trend indices at the site for the shallow and deeper aquifers were found to be positive, indicating that the groundwater quality at Area P is generally improving. Interim remedial action was conducted at Area P from 1988 through 1990. The effect of remedial activities on groundwater quality was assessed by comparing the groundwater concentrations of nitro compounds measured immediately after the site remediation to those measured prior to the remedial action. The regression curves and the data indicated that a downward trend in the groundwater concentrations was observed immediately following the remediation activity at Area P. The trends from the regression analysis indicated that the overall remedy at Area P has been effective in reducing COC concentrations in groundwater.« less

  8. Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

    2016-01-01

    Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

  9. Exploring online communication about cigarette smoking among Twitter users who self-identify as having schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Hswen, Yulin; Naslund, John A.; Chandrashekar, Pooja; Siegel, Robert; Brownstein, John S.; Hawkins, Jared B.

    2018-01-01

    Novel approaches are needed to address elevated tobacco use among people with schizophrenia. This exploratory study examined the frequency, timing, and type of communication about tobacco-related content on Twitter among users who self-identify as having schizophrenia compared with users from the general population. Over a 200-day period from January to July 2016, Twitter users who self-identify as having a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (n = 203) and a randomly selected group of general population control users (n = 173) posted 1,544,122 tweets. Communication frequency did not differ between groups. Tweets containing tobacco-related keywords were extracted. Twitter users with schizophrenia posted significantly more tweets containing any tobacco-related terms (mean = 3.74; SD = 16.3) compared with control users (mean = 0.82; SD = 1.8). A significantly greater proportion of Twitter users with schizophrenia (45%; n = 92) posted tweets containing any tobacco terms compared with control users (30%; n = 52). Schizophrenia users showed significantly greater odds of tweeting about tobacco compared with control users (OR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.29–3.07). These findings suggest that online communication about tobacco may parallel real world trends of elevated tobacco use observed among people with schizophrenia. By showing that Twitter users who self-identify as having schizophrenia discuss tobacco-related content online, popular social media could inform smoking cessation efforts targeting this at-risk group. PMID:28841509

  10. Patterns and Trends in Elder Homicide Across Race and Ethnicity, 1985-2009

    PubMed Central

    Feldmeyer, Ben; Steffensmeier, Darrell

    2014-01-01

    In this report, we assess total and race/ethnicity-disaggregated patterns and temporal trends in elderly homicide (age 55-74) compared with younger age groups for the 1985-to-2009 period. To do this, we use California arrest statistics that provide annual homicide figures by race and ethnicity (including a Hispanic identifier) and by age. Major aims of our analysis are to establish whether (a) elderly homicide rates are different/similar across race/ethnic comparisons; (b) the elderly share of homicide and age-homicide distributions more generally differ across race/ethnicity; and (c) elderly rates of homicide and the share of elderly homicide relative to younger age groups is similar or different now as compared with 20 to 30 years ago. Our analysis is important and timely because some commentators have suggested that elderly homicide levels have been rising over the past one to two decades and because there is a virtual absence of research of any sort on elderly homicide trends that involve comparisons by race and ethnicity. Key findings are that elderly shares of homicide offending relative to younger ages have not increased (or decreased), that elder homicides continue to account for a small fraction of all homicides, and that these patterns persist across race/ethnicity comparisons. PMID:25598653

  11. Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

    PubMed

    Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather

  12. Trends in Programming Languages for Neuroscience Simulations

    PubMed Central

    Davison, Andrew P.; Hines, Michael L.; Muller, Eilif

    2009-01-01

    Neuroscience simulators allow scientists to express models in terms of biological concepts, without having to concern themselves with low-level computational details of their implementation. The expressiveness, power and ease-of-use of the simulator interface is critical in efficiently and accurately translating ideas into a working simulation. We review long-term trends in the development of programmable simulator interfaces, and examine the benefits of moving from proprietary, domain-specific languages to modern dynamic general-purpose languages, in particular Python, which provide neuroscientists with an interactive and expressive simulation development environment and easy access to state-of-the-art general-purpose tools for scientific computing. PMID:20198154

  13. Trends in programming languages for neuroscience simulations.

    PubMed

    Davison, Andrew P; Hines, Michael L; Muller, Eilif

    2009-01-01

    Neuroscience simulators allow scientists to express models in terms of biological concepts, without having to concern themselves with low-level computational details of their implementation. The expressiveness, power and ease-of-use of the simulator interface is critical in efficiently and accurately translating ideas into a working simulation. We review long-term trends in the development of programmable simulator interfaces, and examine the benefits of moving from proprietary, domain-specific languages to modern dynamic general-purpose languages, in particular Python, which provide neuroscientists with an interactive and expressive simulation development environment and easy access to state-of-the-art general-purpose tools for scientific computing.

  14. Priority setting in health care: trends and models from Scandinavian experiences.

    PubMed

    Hofmann, Bjørn

    2013-08-01

    The Scandinavian welfare states have public health care systems which have universal coverage and traditionally low influence of private insurance and private provision. Due to raises in costs, elaborate public control of health care, and a significant technological development in health care, priority setting came on the public agenda comparatively early in the Scandinavian countries. The development of health care priority setting has been partly homogeneous and appears to follow certain phases. This can be of broader interest as it may shed light on alternative models and strategies in health care priority setting. Some general trends have been identified: from principles to procedures, from closed to open processes, and from experts to participation. Five general approaches have been recognized: The moral principles and values based approach, the moral principles and economic assessment approach, the procedural approach, the expert based practice defining approach, and the participatory practice defining approach. There are pros and cons with all of these approaches. For the time being the fifth approach appears attractive, but its lack of true participation and the lack of clear success criteria may pose significant challenges in the future.

  15. Mortality trends due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Gazotto, Gabriel Pereira

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to update and analyze data on mortality trend due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Brazil. Initially, the specific COPD mortality rates were calculated from 1989 to 2009 using data collected from DATASUS (Departamento de Informática do SUS - Brazilian Health System Database). Then, the polynomial regression models from the observed functional relation were estimated based on mortality coefficients and study years. We verified that the general mortality rates due to COPD in Brazil showed an increasing trend from 1989 to 2004, and then decreased. Both genders showed the same increasing tendencies until 2004 and decreased thereafter. The age group under 35 years old showed a linear decreasing trend. All other age groups showed quadratic tendencies, with increases until the years of 1998-1999 and then decreasing. The South and Southeast regions showed the highest COPD mortality rates with increasing trends until the years 2001-2002 and then decreased. The North, Northeast and Central-West regions showed lower mortality rates but increasing trend. This is the first report of COPD mortality stabilization in Brazil since 1980.

  16. Bariatric surgery trends: an 18-year report from the International Bariatric Surgery Registry.

    PubMed

    Samuel, Isaac; Mason, Edward E; Renquist, Kathleen E; Huang, Yu-Hui; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Jamal, Mohammad

    2006-11-01

    The epidemic of morbid obesity has increased bariatric procedures performed. Trend analyses provide important information that may impact individual practices. Patient data from 137 surgeons were examined from 1987 to 2004 (41,860 patients) using Cochran-Armitage Trend test and Generalized Linear Model. Over an 18-year period, surgeon preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive procedures increased from 33% to 94%, while simple gastric restriction decreased correspondingly (P < .0001). Surgeons per worksite doubled and cases per surgeon increased 71%. Laparoscopic procedures increased to 24%. The percentage of males, mean operative age, and initial body mass index (BMI) increased significantly (P < .0001). Postoperative hospital stay decreased from 5.0 to 3.9 days (P < .0001). The most common procedure in 2004 was Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (59%). Bariatric surgery patients are now older and heavier, length of stay is shorter, and the laparoscopic approach is more frequent. From 1987 to 2004, the general trend shows a clear preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive operations.

  17. Early death in active professional athletes: Trends and causes.

    PubMed

    Lemez, S; Wattie, N; Baker, J

    2016-05-01

    The objective of the study was to examine mortality trends and causes of death among professional athletes from the four major sports in North America who died during their playing careers. 205 deceased athletes who were registered as active when they died from the National Basketball Association (NBA), National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB) were examined. Results were compared with the Canadian and U.S. general population. The leading causes of death in players reflected the leading causes of death in the Canadian and U.S. general population (i.e., car accidents). Descriptively, NFL and NBA players had a higher likelihood of dying in a car accident (OR 1.75, 95% CI: 0.91-3.36) compared with NHL and MLB players. In addition, NFL and NBA players had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from a cardiac-related illness (OR 4.44, 95% CI: 1.59-12.43). Mortality trends were disproportionate to team size. Overall, death in active athletes is low. Out of 53 400 athletes who have historically played in the four leagues, only 205 died while active (0.38%). Future examinations into the trends and causes of mortality in elite athlete populations will create a better understanding of health-related risks in elite sport. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Trends in performance indicators of neuroimaging anatomy research publications: a bibliometric study of major neuroradiology journal output over four decades based on web of science database.

    PubMed

    Wing, Louise; Massoud, Tarik F

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative, qualitative, and innovative application of bibliometric research performance indicators to anatomy and radiology research and education can enhance cross-fertilization between the two disciplines. We aim to use these indicators to identify long-term trends in dissemination of publications in neuroimaging anatomy (including both productivity and citation rates), which has subjectively waned in prestige during recent years. We examined publications over the last 40 years in two neuroradiological journals, AJNR and Neuroradiology, and selected and categorized all neuroimaging anatomy research articles according to theme and type. We studied trends in their citation activity over time, and mathematically analyzed these trends for 1977, 1987, and 1997 publications. We created a novel metric, "citation half-life at 10 years postpublication" (CHL-10), and used this to examine trends in the skew of citation numbers for anatomy articles each year. We identified 367 anatomy articles amongst a total of 18,110 in these journals: 74.2% were original articles, with study of normal anatomy being the commonest theme (46.7%). We recorded a mean of 18.03 citations for each anatomy article, 35% higher than for general neuroradiology articles. Graphs summarizing the rise (upslope) in citation rates after publication revealed similar trends spanning two decades. CHL-10 trends demonstrated that more recently published anatomy articles were likely to take longer to reach peak citation rate. Bibliometric analysis suggests that anatomical research in neuroradiology is not languishing. This novel analytical approach can be applied to other aspects of neuroimaging research, and within other subspecialties in radiology and anatomy, and also to foster anatomical education. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  20. Temporal trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia (1996-2009): a population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Vigod, Simone N; Seeman, Mary V; Ray, Joel G; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Dennis, Cindy Lee; Grigoriadis, Sophie; Gruneir, Andrea; Kurdyak, Paul A; Rochon, Paula A

    2012-08-01

    There is substantial evidence that women with schizophrenia in many parts of the world have fewer children than their peers. Our objective was to analyze recent trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia in Ontario, Canada. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional population-based study from 1996 to 2009 using population-based linked administrative databases for the entire province of Ontario. Women aged 15-49 years were classified into schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia groups in each successive 12-month period. Annual general and age-specific fertility rates were derived. The general fertility rate (GFR) among women with schizophrenia was 1.16 times higher in 2007-2009 than in 1996-1998 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.31). The annual GFR ratio of women with vs. without schizophrenia was 0.41 (95% CI 0.36-0.47) in 2009, which was slightly higher than the same ratio in 1996 of 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35). Annual age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) increased over time among women with schizophrenia aged 20-24, 25-29, 35-39 and 40-44 years, but the increase was not always statistically significant. Among women aged 20-24 years, the ASFR ratio in women with vs. without schizophrenia was not significant by the end of the study period (0.93, 95% CI 0.70-1.22). The general fertility rate among women with schizophrenia appears to have increased modestly over the past 13 years. Clinical care and health policy should consider new strategies that focus on the mental health of women with schizophrenia as new mothers, while optimizing healthy pregnancies and child rearing. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Gender gaps in life expectancy: generalized trends and negative associations with development indices in OECD countries.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yan; Arai, Asuna; Kanda, Koji; Lee, Romeo B; Glasser, Jay; Tamashiro, Hiko

    2013-08-01

    Life expectancy (LE) is a major marker of individual survival. It also serves as a guide to highlight both the progress and the gaps in total social and societal health. Comparative LE in concert with measures of gender-specific experience, indices of empowerment and societal happiness and development offer a comparative tool to examine trends and similarities of societal progress as seen through the lens of cross-national experience. To determine the gender gaps in LE (GGLE) trends, we performed a longitudinal analysis, covering a period of 49 years (1960-2008). To examine the association of GGLE with development indices, we used the 2007 GGLE data, the newest happiness data mostly drawn from 2006; the 2006 Human Development Index (HDI) data and the 2006 Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) data. It revealed that most of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries had a GGLE trend that occurred in an inverted U-curve fashion. We divided them into three subgroups based on the peak years of respective GGLE. The earlier the peak year, the happier the countries, the higher the HDI and the smaller the current GGLE are. Association analysis indicates that Happiness, HDI and GEM are all negatively associated with GGLE. This pattern suggests that GGLE undergoes three phases of growth, peak and stability and decline. Japan will soon be seeing its GGLE gradually shrinking in the foreseeable future. The continuing increases in Happiness, HDI and GEM are associated with a decrease in GGLE, which should be carefully taken into consideration.

  2. Current Trends in Electronic Medication Reminders for Self Care.

    PubMed

    Fang, Kerry Y; Maeder, Anthony J; Bjering, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Poor adherence to medication can lead to negative health outcomes and increased financial burdens. We present a literature review on electronic medication reminders used for medication adherence in self care settings, to identify current and possible future trends. A structured PubMed search based on extracted MeSH terms provided a total of 45 publications which were identified as most relevant. Three main categories of electronic solutions were identified: mobile phone reminders, in-home electronic reminder devices, and portable reminder devices.

  3. The Correlation of a Corporate Culture of Health Assessment Score and Health Care Cost Trend.

    PubMed

    Fabius, Raymond; Frazee, Sharon Glave; Thayer, Dixon; Kirshenbaum, David; Reynolds, Jim

    2018-06-01

    Employers that strive to create a corporate environment that fosters a culture of health often face challenges when trying to determine the impact of improvements on health care cost trends. This study aims to test the stability of the correlation between health care cost trend and corporate health assessment scores (CHAS) using a culture of health measurement tool. Correlation analysis of annual health care cost trend and CHAS on a small group of employers using a proprietary CHAS tool. Higher CHAS scores are generally correlated with lower health care cost trend. For employers with several years of CHAS measurements, this correlation remains, although imperfectly. As culture of health scores improve, health care costs trends moderate. These findings provide further evidence of the inverse relationship between organizational CHAS performance and health care cost trend.

  4. Trends in total hospital financial performance under the prospective payment system

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Charles R.

    1992-01-01

    In this article, the author examines trends in determinants of total hospital facility revenues, expenses, and net profits during the period 1977-89. Measures of change in transaction prices are developed, which enable an analysis of trends in real hospital outputs and total factor productivity. The main source of hospital spending growth in excess of the gross national product is identified as growth in hospital employee compensation. PMID:10120176

  5. Growth of Nonoperating Room Anesthesia Care in the United States: A Contemporary Trends Analysis.

    PubMed

    Nagrebetsky, Alexander; Gabriel, Rodney A; Dutton, Richard P; Urman, Richard D

    2017-04-01

    Although previous publications suggest an increasing demand and volume of nonoperating room anesthesia (NORA) cases in the United States, there is little factual information on either volume or characteristics of NORA cases at a national level. Our goal was to assess the available data using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry (NACOR). We performed a retrospective analysis of NORA volume and case characteristics using NACOR data for the period 2010-2014. Operating room (OR) and NORA cases were assessed for patient, provider, procedural, and facility characteristics. NACOR may indicate general trends, since it collects data on about 25% of all anesthetics in the United States each year. We examined trends in the annual proportion of NORA cases, the annual mean age of patients, the annual proportions of American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA PS) III-V patients, and outpatient cases. Regression analyses for trends included facility type and urban/rural location as covariables. The most frequently reported procedures were identified. The proportion of NORA cases overall increased from 28.3% in 2010 to 35.9% in 2014 (P < .001). The mean age of NORA patients was 3.5 years higher compared with OR patients (95% CI 3.5-3.5, P < .001). The proportion of patients with ASA PS class III-V was higher in the NORA group compared with OR group, 37.6% and 33.0%, respectively (P < .001). The median (quartile 1, 3) duration of NORA cases was 40 (25, 70) minutes compared with 86 (52, 141) minutes for OR cases (P < .001). In comparison to OR cases, more NORA cases were started after normal working hours (9.9% vs 16.7%, P < .001). Colonoscopy was the most common procedure that required NORA. There was a significant upward trend in the mean age of NORA patients in the multivariable analysis-the estimated increase in mean age was 1.06 years of age per year of study period (slope 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.07, P < .001). Multivariable

  6. Holocene Faunal Trends in West Siberia and Their Causes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gashev, S. N.; Aleshina, A. O.; Zuban, I. A.; Lupinos, M. Y.; Mardonova, L. B.; Mitropolskiy, M. G.; Selyukov, A. G.; Sorokina, N. V.; Stolbov, V. A.; Shapovalov, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Based on an analysis of the transformation of vertebrate and invertebrate fauna of West Siberia in the Holocene, the classification and periodization of the main faunal trends are presented. Against the background of changing environmental conditions, the key regularities of the faunal dynamics, and the ways some species penetrate into the territory of the region and others disappear from the beginning of the Holocene to the present time have been indicated. Three global and four fluctuating trends are identified. The anthropogenic trend is ascertained separately. A conclusion is made about the prevailing causes of these changes, associated primarily with periodic climatic processes of different levels, determined by planetary geological and cosmic cycles. It is emphasized that, in the historical period, anthropogenic factors play a significant role in the regional faunal dynamics.

  7. Mask industry assessment trend analysis: 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Greg; Yun, Henry

    2010-05-01

    Microelectronics industry leaders consistently cite the cost and cycle time of mask technology and mask supply as top critical issues. A survey was designed with input from semiconductor company mask technologists and merchant mask suppliers and support from SEMATECH to gather information about the mask industry as an objective assessment of its overall condition. This year's assessment was the eighth in the current series of annual reports. Its data were presented in detail at BACUS, and the detailed trend analysis is presented at EMLC. With continued industry support, the report can be used as a baseline to gain perspective on the technical and business status of the mask and microelectronics industries. The report will continue to serve as a valuable reference to identify the strengths and opportunities of the mask industry. Its results will be used to guide future investments on critical path issues. This year's survey is basically the same as the surveys in 2005 through 2009. Questions are grouped into six categories: General Business Profile Information, Data Processing, Yields and Yield Loss Mechanisms, Delivery Times, Returns, and Services. Within each category is a multitude of questions that creates a detailed profile of both the business and technical status of the critical mask industry.

  8. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  9. 2005-2014 trends of PM10 source contributions in an industrialized area of southern Spain.

    PubMed

    Li, Jiwei; Chen, Bing; de la Campa, Ana M Sánchez; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier; de la Rosa, Jesus D

    2018-05-01

    Particulate matter with a diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) using receptor modelling was determined at an urban (La Linea, LL) and an industrial area (Puente Mayorga, PMY) in Southern Spain with samples collected during 2005-2014. The concentrations of PM10 had been decreasing at both sites in three distinctive periods: 1) the initial PM10 levels approached or exceeded the Spain and EU PM10 annual guidelines of 40 μg/m 3 during 2005-2007 at LL and 2005-2009 at PMY; 2) then PM10 dropped by 25%-∼30 μg/m 3 during 2008-2011 at LL and during 2010-2011 at PMY; 3) since 2012, the PM10 concentrations gradually decreased to <30 μg/m 3 . Chemical compositions of PM10 revealed the important contributions of water soluble ions (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), carbonaceous aerosols, and other major elements. These PM components generally showed a decrease trend, in accord with the trend of PM10 reduction. A PMF model identified seven sources to PM10 contributions. Secondary sulfate, soil/urban/construction dust, and secondary nitrate showed significantly decreasing trends with reduction of 40-60% comparing to the initial levels. The road traffic contribution decreased by 14% from the first to third period. However, sea salt, oil combustion, and industrial metallurgical process had relative stable contributions. These source contribution changes are reasonably governed by the PM emission abatement actions implemented during the past decade, as well as the financial crisis, that accounted for a significant decrease of PM pollution in Southern Spain. We identified that the mitigation efforts on industry, fossil fuel combustion, and urban transportation during the past decade were successful for air quality improvement in a highly industrialized area in Southern Spain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Suicides in Northern India: comparison of trends and review of literature.

    PubMed

    Sharma, B R; Gupta, Manisha; Sharma, A K; Sharma, Swati; Gupta, Neha; Relhan, Nidhi; Singh, Harshabad

    2007-08-01

    Trends of suicide vary widely according to time, region, age group, sex, and race. Despite mixed trends of increases or decreases in suicide rates around the world, suicide remains an important public-health problem. In an effort to understand and prevent suicide, researchers have investigated medical, psychosocial, cultural, and socio-economic risk factors associated with the environment as a promising line of research. There is now considerable evidence that childhood and family adversities in general such as childhood sexual and physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, parental separation or divorce and living with substance abusing, mentally ill or criminal family members may be both strongly interrelated and individually related to suicidal behavior in adolescents as well as adults. The approach towards prevention of suicide has to be multidisciplinary. To recognize that adverse childhood experiences that frequently take place as multiple events, identifying and treating those young people who have been exposed to such experiences, promoting increased awareness among parents, teachers, and health professionals of the important role that severe interpersonal difficulties and dysfunctional cognitions can play in the development of suicidal behavior in young people, and helping parents modify their maladaptive child-rearing behavior could help. Child and family support programs, employment support for mothers, and legal guarantees of gender equality, could moderate problems of socio-economic disparity and poverty, which predicts both parents' and children's suicidal behaviors in modern societies.

  11. SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA USED FOR IDENTIFYING ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Due to unique social and demographic characteristics, various segments of the population may experience exposures different from those of the general population, which, in many cases, may be greater. When risk assessments do not characterize subsets of the general population, the populations that may experience the greatest risk remain unidentified. When such populations are not identified, the social and demographic data relevant to these populations is not considered when preparing exposure estimates, which can underestimate exposure and risk estimates for at-risk populations. Thus, it is necessary for risk or exposure assessors characterizing a diverse population, to first identify and then enumerate certain groups within the general population who are at risk for greater contaminant exposures. The document entitled Sociodemographic Data Used for Identifying Potentially Highly Exposed Populations (also referred to as the Highly Exposed Populations document), assists assessors in identifying and enumerating potentially highly exposed populations. This document presents data relating to factors which potentially impact an individual or group's exposure to environmental contaminants based on activity patterns (how time is spent), microenvironments (locations where time is spent), and other socio-demographic data such as age, gender, race and economic status. Populations potentially more exposed to various chemicals of concern, relative to the general population

  12. The Pharmaceutical Sector of Kazakhstan's Economy: Trends and Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurpeisov, Borankul G.; Nabiev, Erboz N.; Mukashev, Temirbay A.; Daribekov, Serik S.; Raimbekov, Bagdat Kh.; Asanova, Maral K.; Bazarbaeva, Leila M.

    2016-01-01

    This research is devoted to the investigation of the general trends in the development of the pharmaceutical industry in the current conditions of economical socialization. The determination of the economic specificity of the modern operation of the pharmaceutical industry is the purpose of the research. It was found that pharmacy is a profitable…

  13. Satellite Observations of NO2 Trend over Romania

    PubMed Central

    Voiculescu, Mirela; Georgescu, Lucian

    2013-01-01

    Satellite-based measurements of atmospheric trace gases loading give a realistic image of atmospheric pollution at global, regional, and urban level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the trend of atmospheric NO2 content over Romania for the period 1996–2010 for several regions which are generally characterized by different pollutant loadings, resulting from GOME-1, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. Satellite results are then compared with ground-based in situ measurements made in industrial and relatively clean areas of one major city in Romania. This twofold approach will help in estimating whether the trend of NO2 obtained by means of data satellite retrievals can be connected with the evolution of national industry and transportation. PMID:24453819

  14. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    PubMed

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana : technical summary.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-09-01

    The objectives of this study are to observe past trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana, identify factors that determine these costs, quantify their impact, and establish a model that can be used to predict future construction cost in Loui...

  16. Health care units and human resources management trends.

    PubMed

    André, Adriana Maria; Ciampone, Maria Helena Trench; Santelle, Odete

    2013-02-01

    To identify factors producing new trends in basic health care unit management and changes in management models. This was a prospective study with ten health care unit managers and ten specialists in the field of Health in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2010. The Delphi methodology was adopted. There were four stages of data collection, three quantitative and the fourth qualitative. The first three rounds dealt with changing trends in management models, manager profiles and required competencies, and the Mann-Whitney test was used in the analysis. The fourth round took the form of a panel of those involved, using thematic analysis. The main factors which are driving change in basic health care units were identified, as were changes in management models. There was consensus that this process is influenced by the difficulties in managing teams and by politics. The managers were found to be up-to-date with trends in the wider context, with the arrival of social health organizations, but they are not yet anticipating these within the institutions. Not only the content, but the professional development aspect of training courses in this area should be reviewed. Selection and recruitment, training and assessment of these professionals should be guided by these competencies aligned to the health service mission, vision, values and management models.

  17. Newly identified psychiatric illness in one general practice: 12-month outcome and the influence of patients' personality.

    PubMed Central

    Wright, A F; Anderson, A J

    1995-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Relatively little is known about the natural history and outcome of psychological problems in patients who present to general practitioners. Only a small proportion of such patients are seen by specialists. Clinical experience suggests that patient personality is one of the factors influencing outcome in patients diagnosed as having psychiatric illness. AIM. This study set out to examine prospectively the progress and 12-month outcome of patients with newly identified psychiatric illness, and the association of patients' personality with outcome. METHOD. One hundred and seventy one patients with clinically significant psychiatric illness attending one practice in a Scottish new town were followed up prospectively (96 presented with psychological symptoms and 75 with somatic symptoms), and were compared with a group of 127 patients with chronic physical illness. Patients were assessed in terms of psychiatric state, social problems and personality using both computer-based and pencil and paper tests in addition to clinical assessments at each consultation during the follow-up year and structured interview one year after recruitment. RESULTS. Most of the improvement in psychiatric state scores on the 28-item general health questionnaire occurred in the first six months of the illness. Of the 171 patients with psychiatric illness 34% improved quickly and remained well, 54% had an intermittent course but had improved at 12-month follow up while 12% pursued a chronic course without improvement. The mean number of consultations in the follow-up year was 8.4 for patients presenting with psychological symptoms, 7.2 for those presenting with somatic symptoms and 6.6 for patients with chronic physical illness. The Eysenck N score proved a strong predictor of the outcome of new psychiatric illness. CONCLUSION. Only one in three patients with newly identified psychiatric illness improved quickly and and remained well, reflecting the importance of continuing care of

  18. Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

    2018-04-01

    Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

  19. WSR-88D Cell Trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Mark M.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a

  20. Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas of 33 Spanish cities.

    PubMed

    Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Gotsens, Mercè; Palència, Laia; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A; Ballesta, Mónica; Calvo, Montse; Cirera, Lluís; Daponte, Antonio; Domínguez-Berjón, Felicitas; Gandarillas, Ana; Goñi, Natividad Izco; Martos, Carmen; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Nolasco, Andreu; Salmerón, Diego; Taracido, Margarita; Borrell, Carme

    2016-07-29

    In Spain, several ecological studies have analyzed trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from all causes in urban areas over time. However, the results of these studies are quite heterogeneous finding, in general, that inequalities decreased, or remained stable. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (1) to identify trends in geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality in the census tracts of 33 Spanish cities between the two periods 1996-1998 and 2005-2007; (2) to analyse trends in the relationship between these geographical inequalities and socioeconomic deprivation; and (3) to obtain an overall measure which summarises the relationship found in each one of the cities and to analyse its variation over time. Ecological study of trends with 2 cross-sectional cuts, corresponding to two periods of analysis: 1996-1998 and 2005-2007. Units of analysis were census tracts of the 33 Spanish cities. A deprivation index calculated for each census tracts in all cities was included as a covariate. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate smoothed Standardized Mortality Ratios (sSMR) by each census tract and period. The geographical distribution of these sSMR was represented using maps of septiles. In addition, two different Bayesian hierarchical models were used to measure the association between all-cause mortality and the deprivation index in each city and period, and by sex: (1) including the association as a fixed effect for each city; (2) including the association as random effects. In both models the data spatial structure can be controlled within each city. The association in each city was measured using relative risks (RR) and their 95 % credible intervals (95 % CI). For most cities and in both sexes, mortality rates decline over time. For women, the mortality and deprivation patterns are similar in the first period, while in the second they are different for most cities. For men, RRs remain stable over time in 29 cities, in 3

  1. Early childhood education: Status trends, and issues related to electronic delivery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rothenberg, D.

    1973-01-01

    The status of, and trends and issues within, early childhood education which are related to the possibilities of electronic delivery of educational service are considered in a broader investigation of the role of large scale, satellite based educational telecommunications systems. Data are analyzed and trends and issues discussed to provide information useful to the system designer who wishes to identify and assess the opportunities for large scale electronic delivery in early childhood education.

  2. Using exploratory data analysis to identify and predict patterns of human Lyme disease case clustering within a multistate region, 2010-2014.

    PubMed

    Hendricks, Brian; Mark-Carew, Miguella

    2017-02-01

    Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vectorborne disease in the United States. The objective of our study was to identify patterns of Lyme disease reporting after multistate inclusion to mitigate potential border effects. County-level human Lyme disease surveillance data were obtained from Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia state health departments. Rate smoothing and Local Moran's I was performed to identify clusters of reporting activity and identify spatial outliers. A logistic generalized estimating equation was performed to identify significant associations in disease clustering over time. Resulting analyses identified statistically significant (P=0.05) clusters of high reporting activity and trends over time. High reporting activity aggregated near border counties in high incidence states, while low reporting aggregated near shared county borders in non-high incidence states. Findings highlight the need for exploratory surveillance approaches to describe the extent to which state level reporting affects accurate estimation of Lyme disease progression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

    2018-06-01

    Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

  4. Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R

    2017-01-24

    Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium population shifts among two-dimensional Data frames. TREND can also carry this out by independent component analysis. We highlight a few examples of finding concurrent processes. TREND extracts dual phases of binding to two sites directly from the NMR spectra of the titrations. In a cardiac movie from magnetic resonance imaging, TREND resolves principal components (PCs) representing breathing and the cardiac cycle. TREND can also reconstruct the series of measurements from selected PCs, as illustrated for a biphasic, NMR-detected titration and the cardiac MRI movie. Fidelity of reconstruction of series of NMR spectra or images requires more PCs than needed to plot the largest population shifts. TREND reads spectra from many spectroscopies in the most common formats (JCAMP-DX and NMR) and multiple movie formats. The TREND package thus provides convenient tools to resolve the processes recorded by diverse biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends in financial satisfaction: does poverty make a difference?

    PubMed

    Hsieh, Chang-Ming

    2002-01-01

    Gerontological studies on financial satisfaction have been limited by the dearth of longitudinal research and the lack of research that includes the concept of poverty. In order to bridge these gaps, this longitudinal study examines and compares the intracohort and intercohort effects on financial satisfaction trends by poverty status among Americans age 45 and above, using data from the General Social Surveys. The results suggest that for both the poor and the non-poor, changes in financial satisfaction trends are mostly due to strong negative intercohort effects, indicating that younger cohorts are less satisfied financially than the older ones. There appears to be a significant difference in the intercohort effects of financial satisfaction trends between the poor and the non-poor. However, such difference can be accounted for by the differences in the effects of education and social comparison (or relative deprivation) on financial satisfaction between the poor and the non-poor.

  6. Prescription drug advertising trends: a study of oral hypoglycemics.

    PubMed

    Mehta, K K; Sorofman, B A; Rowland, C R

    1989-01-01

    A content analysis of oral hypoglycemic drug advertisements was performed in selected medical journals published in the United States from 1963 to 1986. The 665 advertisements subsequently examined were studied for certain predetermined parameters in order to indicate trends. The trend results may be summarized as follows. As an extension of prescription drug advertising trends in general, oral hypoglycemic drug advertising showed an increasing length along with a subsequent decrease in the amount of space devoted to the copy portion of the advertisement. They also showed a decrease in the use of statistical information and rarely made references to competitors. Nongender specific, colored advertisements with product and use related appeals have become more common with the passage of time. Although the rationale and purpose behind advertising is unchanged, the format has changed considerably. These changes are primarily due to the enhancement of print technology and to some extent, the changing social environment.

  7. The Correlation of a Corporate Culture of Health Assessment Score and Health Care Cost Trend

    PubMed Central

    Fabius, Raymond; Frazee, Sharon Glave; Thayer, Dixon; Kirshenbaum, David; Reynolds, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Objective: Employers that strive to create a corporate environment that fosters a culture of health often face challenges when trying to determine the impact of improvements on health care cost trends. This study aims to test the stability of the correlation between health care cost trend and corporate health assessment scores (CHAS) using a culture of health measurement tool. Methods: Correlation analysis of annual health care cost trend and CHAS on a small group of employers using a proprietary CHAS tool. Results: Higher CHAS scores are generally correlated with lower health care cost trend. For employers with several years of CHAS measurements, this correlation remains, although imperfectly. Conclusion: As culture of health scores improve, health care costs trends moderate. These findings provide further evidence of the inverse relationship between organizational CHAS performance and health care cost trend. PMID:29465516

  8. Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, Thomas R.

    2006-01-01

    Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Previously Identified Deficiencies Not Corrected in the General Fund Enterprise Business System Program

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-15

    Army AAA Report No. A-2009-0226- FFM , “Examination of Federal Financial Management Improvement Act Compliance - Test Validation General Fund Enterprise...Business System Release 1.2,” September 30, 2009 AAA Report No. A-2009-0231- FFM , “General Fund Enterprise Business System - Federal Financial...Management Improvement Act Compliance Examination of Release 1.3 Functionality,” September 30, 2009 AAA Report No. A-2009-0232- FFM , “General Fund

  10. Iowa Consumer Trends and Participation in Agritourism Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nasers, Melissa S.; Retallick, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    As the agritourism industry grows and develops in Iowa, it is important to identify the knowledge and participation levels of prospective agritourism consumers. This article focuses on current consumer trends and participation levels in Iowa agritourism activities. The results revealed a majority of Iowans believe they have at least some…

  11. Trends in the Crowdfunding of Educational Technology Startups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antonenko, Pavlo D.; Lee, Brenda R.; Kleinheksel, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of active crowdfunding campaigns posted on ten crowdfunding platforms in May 2013 to provide a glimpse of the recent trends in the crowdfunding of educational technology startups. We describe the characteristics of the most successful crowdfunding campaigns in educational technology and identify the most popular…

  12. Trends Influencing Adult Literacy Instruction and Research in 2003.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mikulecky, Larry

    A review of current literature identifies three growing trends. First, there has been an increase in legislatively mandated accountability that requires taxpayer-funded education and research programs be demonstrated effective by "scientifically based research." To receive federal monies programs must emphasize quantitative,…

  13. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010.

    PubMed

    Mast, M Alisa

    2013-11-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970-2010 and 1990-2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO₂ emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  14. Large-Scale Overlays and Trends: Visually Mining, Panning and Zooming the Observable Universe.

    PubMed

    Luciani, Timothy Basil; Cherinka, Brian; Oliphant, Daniel; Myers, Sean; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Labrinidis, Alexandros; Marai, G Elisabeta

    2014-07-01

    We introduce a web-based computing infrastructure to assist the visual integration, mining and interactive navigation of large-scale astronomy observations. Following an analysis of the application domain, we design a client-server architecture to fetch distributed image data and to partition local data into a spatial index structure that allows prefix-matching of spatial objects. In conjunction with hardware-accelerated pixel-based overlays and an online cross-registration pipeline, this approach allows the fetching, displaying, panning and zooming of gigabit panoramas of the sky in real time. To further facilitate the integration and mining of spatial and non-spatial data, we introduce interactive trend images-compact visual representations for identifying outlier objects and for studying trends within large collections of spatial objects of a given class. In a demonstration, images from three sky surveys (SDSS, FIRST and simulated LSST results) are cross-registered and integrated as overlays, allowing cross-spectrum analysis of astronomy observations. Trend images are interactively generated from catalog data and used to visually mine astronomy observations of similar type. The front-end of the infrastructure uses the web technologies WebGL and HTML5 to enable cross-platform, web-based functionality. Our approach attains interactive rendering framerates; its power and flexibility enables it to serve the needs of the astronomy community. Evaluation on three case studies, as well as feedback from domain experts emphasize the benefits of this visual approach to the observational astronomy field; and its potential benefits to large scale geospatial visualization in general.

  15. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mast, M. Alisa

    2013-01-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  16. Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs.

    PubMed

    Sizirici, Banu; Tansel, Berrin

    2010-01-01

    decomposition model in general provides an adequate forecast for future planning purposes for the parameters monitored in leachate. The model projections for 1,4-dichlorobenzene were relatively less accurate in comparison to the projections for vinyl chloride and chlorobenzene. Based on the trends observed, future monitoring needs for the selected leachate parameters were identified.

  17. Analysis of Ground-Water Levels and Associated Trends in Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, 1951-2003

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    J.M. Fenelon

    2005-10-05

    Almost 4,000 water-level measurements in 216 wells in the Yucca Flat area from 1951 to 2003 were quality assured and analyzed. An interpretative database was developed that describes water-level conditions for each water level measured in Yucca Flat. Multiple attributes were assigned to each water-level measurement in the database to describe the hydrologic conditions at the time of measurement. General quality, temporal variability, regional significance, and hydrologic conditions are attributed for each water-level measurement. The database also includes narratives that discuss the water-level history of each well. Water levels in 34 wells were analyzed for variability and for statistically significantmore » trends. An attempt was made to identify the cause of many of the water-level fluctuations or trends. Potential causes include equilibration following well construction or development, pumping in the monitoring well, withdrawals from a nearby supply well, recharge from precipitation, earthquakes, underground nuclear tests, land subsidence, barometric pressure, and Earth tides. Some of the naturally occurring fluctuations in water levels may result from variations in recharge. The magnitude of the overall water-level change for these fluctuations generally is less than 2 feet. Long-term steady-state hydrographs for most of the wells open to carbonate rock have a very similar pattern. Carbonate-rock wells without the characteristic pattern are directly west of the Yucca and Topgallant faults in the southwestern part of Yucca Flat. Long-term steady-state hydrographs from wells open to volcanic tuffs or the Eleana confining unit have a distinctly different pattern from the general water-level pattern of the carbonate-rock aquifers. Anthropogenic water-level fluctuations were caused primarily by water withdrawals and nuclear testing. Nuclear tests affected water levels in many wells. Trends in these wells are attributed to test-cavity infilling or the effects of

  18. Analysis of ground-water levels and associated trends in Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, 1951-2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fenelon, Joseph M.

    2005-01-01

    Almost 4,000 water-level measurements in 216 wells in the Yucca Flat area from 1951 to 2003 were quality assured and analyzed. An interpretative database was developed that describes water-level conditions for each water level measured in Yucca Flat. Multiple attributes were assigned to each water-level measurement in the database to describe the hydrologic conditions at the time of measurement. General quality, temporal variability, regional significance, and hydrologic conditions are attributed for each water-level measurement. The database also includes narratives that discuss the water-level history of each well. Water levels in 34 wells were analyzed for variability and for statistically significant trends. An attempt was made to identify the cause of many of the water-level fluctuations or trends. Potential causes include equilibration following well construction or development, pumping in the monitoring well, withdrawals from a nearby supply well, recharge from precipitation, earthquakes, underground nuclear tests, land subsidence, barometric pressure, and Earth tides. Some of the naturally occurring fluctuations in water levels may result from variations in recharge. The magnitude of the overall water-level change for these fluctuations generally is less than 2 feet. Long-term steady-state hydrographs for most of the wells open to carbonate rock have a very similar pattern. Carbonate-rock wells without the characteristic pattern are directly west of the Yucca and Topgallant faults in the southwestern part of Yucca Flat. Long-term steady-state hydrographs from wells open to volcanic tuffs or the Eleana confining unit have a distinctly different pattern from the general water-level pattern of the carbonate-rock aquifers. Anthropogenic water-level fluctuations were caused primarily by water withdrawals and nuclear testing. Nuclear tests affected water levels in many wells. Trends in these wells are attributed to test-cavity infilling or the effects of

  19. Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

  20. Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

  1. Current Trends in Nursing Informatics: Results of an International Survey.

    PubMed

    Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Alhuwail, Dari; Ali, Samira; Badger, Martha K; Eler, Gabrielle Jacklin; Georgsson, Mattias; Islam, Tasneem; Jeon, Eunjoo; Jung, Hyunggu; Kuo, Chiu-Hsiang; Lewis, Adrienne; Pruinelli, Lisiane; Ronquillo, Charlene; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Sommer, Janine; Tayaben, Jude L; Topaz, Maxim

    2016-01-01

    Nursing informatics (NI) can help provide effective and safe healthcare. This study aimed to describe current research trends in NI. In the summer 2015, the IMIA-NI Students Working Group created and distributed an online international survey of the current NI trends. A total of 402 responses were submitted from 44 countries. We identified a top five NI research areas: standardized terminologies, mobile health, clinical decision support, patient safety and big data research. NI research funding was considered to be difficult to acquire by the respondents. Overall, current NI research on education, clinical practice, administration and theory is still scarce, with theory being the least common. Further research is needed to explain the impact of these trends and the needs from clinical practice.

  2. Decreasing trend of groundwater in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarachi, S.; Moghim, S.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2010-12-01

    In these days the increasing demand for water has created problems for availability of its resources. Some recent issues like population growth, global warming and inefficient methods of water consumption, generated the need to find sources of water other than surface water such as ground water. Excess using of groundwater in most parts of the world causes depletion of ground water in those areas. Scientists are trying to find efficient means to quantify these trends. GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) including two satellites launched in March 2002, is making measurements of the Earth's gravity field which is used to display the change of storage of the water on the Earth. GRACE makes it possible to find the trend of the change of storage all over the world.It can show specific areas in the world that have dramatic decreasing trend of water storage. One of these regions that have been considered in this study is Turkey in western Asia, as one of the countries deeply affected by global warming. Turkey is identified as one of the first places where desertification will start in Europe, according to estimates by the UN Environment Program (UNEP). Turkey has 25 underground water tables and they had a decrease in level of 27 meters in the past 25 years (Turkey water report 2009). In this paper the change of the ground water is evaluated by applying the GRACE storage anomalies and the mass conservation equation that concludes the reduction trend in groundwater. The results clarify that decreasing trend of groundwater is more noticeable during recent years, particularly since 2006. Our results show that in recent years the average decrease in ground water level is 2.5 cm per year and the maximum decrease occurred in May 2007 with the value of about 7.9 cm. KEY WORDS: water resources; Ground water; Turkey; GRACE

  3. NASA trend analysis procedures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  4. Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests.

    PubMed

    Rokni, Ladan; Park, Sam-Hun

    2018-02-01

    Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was 'health and welfare', followed by 'social science'. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective.

  5. Ask an anatomist: Identifying global trends, topics and themes of academic anatomists using twitter.

    PubMed

    Marsland, Madeleine J; Lazarus, Michelle D

    2018-05-06

    Social media (SoMe) is increasingly used in higher education (HE) to access knowledge and enable global communication. The SoMe platform Twitter ® is particularly beneficial in these contexts because it is readily accessible, easily searchable (via hashtags) and global. Given these advantages, the twitter platform @AskAnatomist was created to foster a global weekly tweet chat, where students and academics can ask and address anatomy-related questions. The aim of this study was to identify themes arising in the early stages of the @AskAnatomy Twitter community to gain insights into current needs/key areas for academic anatomists, students, and other followers. A qualitative analysis of tweets including the hashtag #AnatQ, (the associated @AskAnatomist hashtag), was undertaken to achieve this aim. Thematic analysis revealed three core themes arising in the formative stages of the @AskAnatomist Twitter site: (1) anatomical education modalities, (2) specific anatomy content, and (3) research motivations. These themes reveal controversies within the field of anatomical sciences, areas for potential education resource improvement and research, as well as the humor of anatomists. Though the original intent of the @AskAnatomist site was to engage the general public in anatomy content and knowledge, tweet analysis suggests that academic anatomists were the primary active "tweeters". Interestingly, this analysis reveals that the @AskAnatomist site progressed into a web-based community of practice (CoP), suggesting an additional benefit of SoMe communities in the field of anatomy. Anat Sci Educ 11: 270-281. © 2017 American Association of Anatomists. © 2017 American Association of Anatomists.

  6. [Development of a pharmacological curriculum for general practice: Identifying and prescribing orally administered pharmacological substances with relevance for general practice].

    PubMed

    Straßner, Cornelia; Kaufmann-Kolle, Petra; Flum, Elisabeth; Schwill, Simon; Brandt, Bettina; Steinhäuser, Jost

    2017-05-01

    General practitioners (GPs) are among the specialists who prescribe the highest number of medication. Therefore the improvement of pharmacological competencies is an important part of the GP specialist training. The self-concept of general practice stating that GPs are the first contact persons for all health problems makes it challenging to define and acquire competencies for specialist training. While the "Competence-based Curriculum" developed by the German College of General Practitioners and Family Physicians defines diagnoses, reasons for counselling and competencies which are essential for general practice, a similar orientation guide is lacking for the pharmacological field. The aim of this study is to define and characterize pharmacological substances which every GP should know so well that he or she is able to conduct counselling and monitoring. We analysed private and public health insurance prescriptions of all general practices participating in the CONTENT project in the period from 2009 to 2014. The analysis was limited to substances with oral application which were prescribed at least once by at least 25 % (n = 11) of the practices. While the 100 most frequent prescriptions were included due to their frequency, less frequently prescribed substances were assessed concerning their relevance for general practice in a rating procedure. The substances included were classified by diagnoses and reasons for counselling. We analysed 1,912,896 prescriptions from 44 practices and 112,535 patients on the basis of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system. After applying the inclusion criteria, 453 substances were left, 302 of which were considered relevant for general practice and could be assigned to 45 diagnoses / reasons for counselling. The result of this study could be considered a working draft for a pharmacological curriculum for general practice, which may complement the "Competence-based Curriculum" in the medium term. Copyright

  7. Nonparametric evaluation of birth cohort trends in disease rates.

    PubMed

    Tarone, R E; Chu, K C

    2000-01-01

    Although interpretation of age-period-cohort analyses is complicated by the non-identifiability of maximum likelihood estimates, changes in the slope of the birth-cohort effect curve are identifiable and have potential aetiologic significance. A nonparametric test for a change in the slope of the birth-cohort trend has been developed. The test is a generalisation of the sign test and is based on permutational distributions. A method for identifying interactions between age and calendar-period effects is also presented. The nonparametric method is shown to be powerful in detecting changes in the slope of the birth-cohort trend, although its power can be reduced considerably by calendar-period patterns of risk. The method identifies a previously unidentified decrease in the birth-cohort risk of lung-cancer mortality from 1912 to 1919, which appears to reflect a reduction in the initiation of smoking by young men at the beginning of the Great Depression (1930s). The method also detects an interaction between age and calendar period in leukemia mortality rates, reflecting the better response of children to chemotherapy. The proposed nonparametric method provides a data analytic approach, which is a useful adjunct to log-linear Poisson analysis of age-period-cohort models, either in the initial model building stage, or in the final interpretation stage.

  8. Employment and satisfaction trends among general surgery residents from a community hospital.

    PubMed

    Cyr-Taro, Amy E; Kotwall, Cyrus A; Menon, Rema P; Hamann, M Sue; Nakayama, Don K

    2008-01-01

    Physician satisfaction is an important and timely issue in health care. A paucity of literature addresses this question among general surgeons. To review employment patterns and job satisfaction among general surgery residents from a single university-affiliated institution. All general surgery residents graduating from 1986 to 2006, inclusive, were mailed an Institutional Review Board-approved survey, which was then returned anonymously. Information on demographics, fellowship training, practice characteristics, job satisfaction and change, and perceived shortcomings in residency training was collected. A total of 31 of 34 surveys were returned (91%). Most of those surveyed were male (94%) and Caucasian (87%). Sixty-one percent of residents applied for a fellowship, and all but 1 were successful in obtaining their chosen fellowship. The most frequent fellowship chosen was plastic surgery, followed by minimally invasive surgery. Seventy-one percent of residents who applied for fellowship felt that the program improved their competitiveness for a fellowship. Most of the sample is in private practice, and of those, 44% are in groups with more than 4 partners. Ninety percent work less than 80 hours per week. Only 27% practice in small towns (population <50,000). Of the 18 graduates who practice general surgery, 94% perform advanced laparoscopy. Sixty-seven percent of our total sample cover trauma, and 55% of the general surgeons perform endoscopy. These graduates wish they had more training in pancreatic, hepatobiliary, and thoracic surgery. Eighty-three percent agreed that they would again choose a general surgery residency, 94% of those who completed a fellowship would again choose that fellowship, and 90% would again choose their current job. Twenty-three percent agreed that they had difficulty finding their first job, and 30% had fewer job offers than expected. Thirty-five percent of the graduates have changed jobs: 29% of the residents have changed jobs once, and

  9. Joint principal trend analysis for longitudinal high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuping; Ouyang, Zhengqing

    2018-06-01

    We consider a research scenario motivated by integrating multiple sources of information for better knowledge discovery in diverse dynamic biological processes. Given two longitudinal high-dimensional datasets for a group of subjects, we want to extract shared latent trends and identify relevant features. To solve this problem, we present a new statistical method named as joint principal trend analysis (JPTA). We demonstrate the utility of JPTA through simulations and applications to gene expression data of the mammalian cell cycle and longitudinal transcriptional profiling data in response to influenza viral infections. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Trend surface models in the representation and analysis of time factors in cancer mortality.

    PubMed

    Cislaghi, C; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Levi, F

    1990-01-01

    A method of graphic representation of time factors in cancer mortality is presented, based on different tonalities of grey applied to the surface of the matrix defined by various age-specific rates. It is illustrated using mortality data from cancers of the mouth or pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung in Italian and Swiss males. Progressively more complex regression surface equations are defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age and cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific rate). General patterns of trends were thus identified, showing important similarities in cohort and period effects, but also noticeable differences in time-related factors in mortality from various neoplasms of the upper digestive and respiratory tract. For instance, there were declines in mortality from cancers of the mouth or pharynx in the oldest age groups, whereas rates were appreciably upwards at younger and middle age, particularly in Italy. Likewise, cancers of the oesophagus and, chiefly, of the larynx were substantially increasing, on a cohort basis, in oldest Italian males. Temporal pattern for laryngeal cancer in Italy was similar to that of lung cancer, thus suggesting that (cigarette) smoking has a greater impact on this cancer site as compared with alcohol. However, it is difficult to explain, on this basis alone, the totally diverging pattern for cancer of the larynx (downwards) and of the lung (upwards) observed among older Swiss males. These examples indicate that trend surface models are a useful summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in cancer mortality.

  11. Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model was composed of three

  12. General trends of chromosomal evolution in Aphidococca (Insecta, Homoptera, Aphidinea + Coccinea)

    PubMed Central

    Gavrilov-Zimin, Ilya A.; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V.; Gautam, D.C.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Parallel trends of chromosomal evolution in Aphidococca are discussed, based on the catalogue of chromosomal numbers and genetic systems of scale insects by Gavrilov (2007) and the new catalogue for aphids provided in the present paper. To date chromosome numbers have been reported for 482 species of scale insects and for 1039 species of aphids, thus respectively comprising about 6% and 24% of the total number of species. Such characters as low modal numbers of chromosomes, heterochromatinization of part of chromosomes, production of only two sperm instead of four from each primary spermatocyte, physiological sex determination, "larval" meiosis, wide distribution of parthenogenesis and chromosomal races are considered as a result of homologous parallel changes of the initial genotype of Aphidococca ancestors. From a cytogenetic point of view, these characters separate Aphidococca from all other groups of Paraneoptera insects and in this sense can be considered as additional taxonomic characters. In contrast to available paleontological data the authors doubt that Coccinea with their very diverse (and partly primitive) genetic systems may have originated later then Aphidinea with their very specialised and unified genetic system. PMID:26312130

  13. External funding of obstetrical publications: citation significance and trends over 2 decades.

    PubMed

    Vintzileos, William S; Ananth, Cande V; Vintzileos, Anthony M

    2013-08-01

    The objective of the study was to identify the external funding status of the most frequently cited obstetrical publications (citation classics) and to assess trends in funded vs nonfunded manuscripts as well as each publication's type of external funding. For the first objective, the citation classics, which were reported in a previous publication, were reviewed to identify their funding status. For the second objective, all pregnancy-related and obstetrical publications from the 2 US-based leading journals, the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Obstetrics and Gynecology, were reviewed to identify the funding status and trends between 1989 and 2012. Twenty-seven of 44 of the citation classics (61%) had external funding, whereas only 43% of the reviewed regular (non-citation classic) obstetrical publications had external funding. There was a decreasing trend in the number of obstetrical manuscripts associated with a decreasing trend in the number and proportion of nonfunded manuscripts and an increasing trend in the number and proportion of National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded manuscripts. Relative to 1989, in 2012 there was a 34.8% decrease in the number of published obstetrical manuscripts, a 59.6% decrease in the number of nonfunded manuscripts, and a 6.8% increase in the number of funded manuscripts accompanied by an 8.2% increase in the number of NIH-funded publications. In the last 9 years (2004-2012), there was a 35.1% increase in the proportion of NIH-funded manuscripts accompanied by an 18.8% decrease in the proportion of non-NIH-funded manuscripts. Our findings provide useful data regarding the importance of securing NIH-based funding for physicians contemplating academic careers in obstetrics. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Developing a Critical View on E-Learning Trend Reports: Trend Watching or Trend Setting?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Jo; Rusman, Ellen; van der Klink, Marcel; Tattersall, Colin

    2005-01-01

    Trend watching reports are an indispensable resource in the e-learning domain. Many HRD departments consider these reports as essential cornerstones for the development of their e-learning strategy. But what is the quality of the forecasts made in these reports? In this article, several methods of forecasting trends are discussed, resulting in a…

  15. Pneumonia after Major Cancer Surgery: Temporal Trends and Patterns of Care.

    PubMed

    Trinh, Vincent Q; Ravi, Praful; Abd-El-Barr, Abd-El-Rahman M; Jhaveri, Jay K; Gervais, Mai-Kim; Meyer, Christian P; Hanske, Julian; Sammon, Jesse D; Trinh, Quoc-Dien

    2016-01-01

    Rationale. Pneumonia is a leading cause of postoperative complication. Objective. To examine trends, factors, and mortality of postoperative pneumonia following major cancer surgery (MCS). Methods. From 1999 to 2009, patients undergoing major forms of MCS were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), a Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) subset, resulting in weighted 2,508,916 patients. Measurements. Determinants were examined using logistic regression analysis adjusted for clustering using generalized estimating equations. Results. From 1999 to 2009, 87,867 patients experienced pneumonia following MCS and prevalence increased by 29.7%. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of mortality after MCS was -2.4% (95% CI: -2.9 to -2.0, P < 0.001); the EAPC of mortality associated with pneumonia after MCS was -2.2% (95% CI: -3.6 to 0.9, P = 0.01). Characteristics associated with higher odds of pneumonia included older age, male, comorbidities, nonprivate insurance, lower income, hospital volume, urban, Northeast region, and nonteaching status. Pneumonia conferred a 6.3-fold higher odd of mortality. Conclusions. Increasing prevalence of pneumonia after MCS, associated with stable mortality rates, may result from either increased diagnosis or more stringent coding. We identified characteristics associated with pneumonia after MCS which could help identify at-risk patients in order to reduce pneumonia after MCS, as it greatly increases the odds of mortality.

  16. Prevalence, co-occurrence and decennial trends of family violence toward children in the general population.

    PubMed

    Clément, Marie-Ève; Chamberland, Claire; Bouchard, Camil

    2016-03-14

    In Quebec, three population-based surveys have documented the prevalence of psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence toward children. This paper aims to present 1) the results of the 2012 survey with regard to the frequency and annual prevalence of violence, and 2) the trends in all three forms of violence between 1999 and 2012 according to children's age. The three independent surveys were all conducted through telephone interviews in 1999, 2004 and 2012 by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec and reached a total sample of 9,646 children living with a mother figure. Psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence were measured using the Parent Child Conflict Tactics Scales. The results show that repeated psychological aggression, after having increased between 1999 (48%) and 2004 (53%), slightly decreased in 2012 (49%). Minor physical violence decreased steadily between 1999 and 2012, from 48% to 35%, and severe physical violence remained stable (6%). These three forms of violence varied by the age category of the children. Finally, the results show that the co-occurrence of the use of physical and psychological violence remained high in all three surveys. The results are consistent with trends in North America and are discussed in terms of services to support families.

  17. Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines

  18. Analysis of Water-Quality Trends for Selected Streams in the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program, Michigan, 1998-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoard, C.J.; Fuller, Lori M.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

    2009-01-01

    In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began a long-term monitoring program to evaluate the water quality of most watersheds in Michigan. Major goals of this Water-Chemistry Monitoring Program were to identify streams exceeding or not meeting State or Federal water-quality standards and to assess if constituent concentrations reflecting water quality in these streams were increasing or decreasing over time. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2005 were analyzed to identify potential trends. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 31 sites across Michigan, 28 of which had sufficient data to analyze for trends. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test within the computer program ESTREND. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the state was for chloride. Chloride trends were detected at 8 of the 28 sites; trends at 7 sites were increasing and the trend at 1 site was decreasing. Although no trends were detected for various nitrogen species or phosphorus, these constituents were detected at levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations for nutrients in water. The results of the trend analysis will help to establish a baseline to evaluate future changes in water quality in Michigan streams.

  19. Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

    PubMed

    Green, David M

    2017-02-01

    Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Cocrystal dissociation in the presence of water: a general approach for identifying stable cocrystal forms.

    PubMed

    Eddleston, Mark D; Madusanka, Nadeesh; Jones, William

    2014-09-01

    In previous studies, cocrystals have been shown to be susceptible to dissociation at high humidity because of differences in the solubilities of the two coformer molecules, especially when these molecules can form hydrates. Contrastingly, however, the propensity of the pharmaceutically active compound caffeine to hydrate formation is reduced by cocrystallization with oxalic acid. Here, the stability of the oxalic acid cocrystal of caffeine is investigated from a thermodynamic perspective through the use of aqueous slurries of caffeine hydrate and oxalic acid dihydrate. Conversion to the anhydrous caffeine-oxalic acid cocrystal occurred under these conditions confirming that this form is thermodynamically stable in an aqueous environment. The slurry methodology was further developed as a general approach to screening for cocrystals that are not susceptible to dissociation at high humidity. In this manner, cocrystals of the hydrate-forming molecules theophylline, carbamazepine, and piroxicam that are stable at high humidity, indefinitely avoiding hydrate formation, were identified. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  1. Receiving Gifts from Commercial Companies. Part 1: The Need for General Institutional Guidelines. Part 2: Example of General Institutional Guidelines.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, R. Van

    1994-01-01

    General institutional guidelines for gifts from commercial companies are needed, in light of national trends. Commercially supported continuing medical education, those concerning personal gifts to physicians, and conflict of interest and research are areas to be considered. (SK)

  2. Identifying patient safety problems associated with information technology in general practice: an analysis of incident reports.

    PubMed

    Magrabi, Farah; Liaw, Siaw Teng; Arachi, Diana; Runciman, William; Coiera, Enrico; Kidd, Michael R

    2016-11-01

    To identify the categories of problems with information technology (IT), which affect patient safety in general practice. General practitioners (GPs) reported incidents online or by telephone between May 2012 and November 2013. Incidents were reviewed against an existing classification for problems associated with IT and the clinical process impacted. 87 GPs across Australia. Types of problems, consequences and clinical processes. GPs reported 90 incidents involving IT which had an observable impact on the delivery of care, including actual patient harm as well as near miss events. Practice systems and medications were the most affected clinical processes. Problems with IT disrupted clinical workflow, wasted time and caused frustration. Issues with user interfaces, routine updates to software packages and drug databases, and the migration of records from one package to another generated clinical errors that were unique to IT; some could affect many patients at once. Human factors issues gave rise to some errors that have always existed with paper records but are more likely to occur and cause harm with IT. Such errors were linked to slips in concentration, multitasking, distractions and interruptions. Problems with patient identification and hybrid records generated errors that were in principle no different to paper records. Problems associated with IT include perennial risks with paper records, but additional disruptions in workflow and hazards for patients unique to IT, occasionally affecting multiple patients. Surveillance for such hazards may have general utility, but particularly in the context of migrating historical records to new systems and software updates to existing systems. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Preventive health care for women in Croatia: ongoing trends from 1995 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Pavlov, Renata; Babič, Ivana; Trstenjak, Vlatka Hajdinjak; Srček, Igor; Sošić, Zvonko

    2014-12-01

    The privatization of gynecological services and the introduction of additional reimbursements to capitation fees are ongoing mini reforms in Croatia. In order to evaluate the outcomes of this, study was performed with the main aim of determining trends in preventive activities carried out in public and private gynecological practices from 1995 to 2012. The Croatian Health Service Yearbooks served as the basis for data collection. Data were collected on the number of general check-ups, the number of targeted check-ups, and the number of follow-up check-ups. The results indicate a trend of continuous decline in the number of general and follow-up check-ups, as well as breast examinations and Pap smears, in public gynecological practices even after the introduction of contractual obligations and additional reimbursements and fee-for-service payments. One important note is that many resources were invested in general checks-up interventions, which proved to be ineffective, while fewer resources were invested in the more effective Pap smear interventions.

  4. Exploring online communication about cigarette smoking among Twitter users who self-identify as having schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Hswen, Yulin; Naslund, John A; Chandrashekar, Pooja; Siegel, Robert; Brownstein, John S; Hawkins, Jared B

    2017-11-01

    Novel approaches are needed to address elevated tobacco use among people with schizophrenia. This exploratory study examined the frequency, timing, and type of communication about tobacco-related content on Twitter among users who self-identify as having schizophrenia compared with users from the general population. Over a 200-day period from January to July 2016, Twitter users who self-identify as having a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (n = 203) and a randomly selected group of general population control users (n = 173) posted 1,544,122 tweets. Communication frequency did not differ between groups. Tweets containing tobacco-related keywords were extracted. Twitter users with schizophrenia posted significantly more tweets containing any tobacco-related terms (mean = 3.74; SD = 16.3) compared with control users (mean = 0.82; SD = 1.8). A significantly greater proportion of Twitter users with schizophrenia (45%; n = 92) posted tweets containing any tobacco terms compared with control users (30%; n = 52). Schizophrenia users showed significantly greater odds of tweeting about tobacco compared with control users (OR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.29-3.07). These findings suggest that online communication about tobacco may parallel real world trends of elevated tobacco use observed among people with schizophrenia. By showing that Twitter users who self-identify as having schizophrenia discuss tobacco-related content online, popular social media could inform smoking cessation efforts targeting this at-risk group. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Status of Solid State Lighting Product Development and Future Trends for General Illumination.

    PubMed

    Katona, Thomas M; Pattison, P Morgan; Paolini, Steve

    2016-06-07

    After decades of research and development on fabrication of efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDs) throughout the visible spectrum, LED-based lighting has reached unparalleled performance with respect to energy efficiency and has become the light source for virtually all new lighting products being designed today. The development of the core light sources and their subsequent integration into lighting systems continue to present unique challenges and opportunities for product designers. We review these systems and the current development status, as well as provide context for the trends in solid state lighting that are leading to the development of value-added lighting solutions that extend the domain of lighting beyond light generation, into fields as diverse as communications, healthcare, and agricultural production.

  6. Trends and Issues in ELT Methods and Methodology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waters, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Trends and issues in ELT methods and methodology can be identified at two main levels. One is in terms of the theoretical pronouncements of the "professional discourse", as manifested by major publications, conference presentations, and so on. This article therefore begins by briefly summarizing some of the main developments of this kind from 1995…

  7. Trends in Autism Research: A Systematic Journal Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graff, Heidi J.; Berkeley, Sheri; Evmenova, Anya S.; Park, Kristy L.

    2014-01-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a lifelong disability for which prevalence rates continue to increase. Persons with ASD vary widely in both severity of disability and services required. Therefore it is important to identify trends in research and evaluate progress in the field. The current study uses a journal analysis to evaluate research over…

  8. Emerging Trends and New Directions in Telecollaborative Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Dowd, Robert

    2016-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the most significant emerging trends and tendencies in telecollaborative practice. In order to achieve this, I review the recent literature in the area and I identify recurring themes from the Telecollaboration in Higher Education conference which took place in Trinity College Dublin, Ireland from 21 to 23…

  9. Impact of Wikipedia on citation trends

    PubMed Central

    Marashi, Sayed-Amir; Hosseini-Nami, Seyed Mohammad Amin; Alishah, Khadijeh; Hadi, Mahdieh; Karimi, Ali; Hosseinian, Saeedeh; Ramezanifard, Rouhallah; Mirhassani, Reihaneh Sadat; Hosseini, Zhaleh; Shojaie, Zahra

    2013-01-01

    It has been suggested that the “visibility” of an article influences its citation count. More specifically, it is believed that the social media can influence article citations.Here we tested the hypothesis that inclusion of scholarly references in Wikipedia affects the citation trends. To perform this analysis, we introduced a citation “propensity” measure, which is inspired by the concept of amino acid propensity for protein secondary structures. We show that although citation counts generally increase during time, the citation “propensity” does not increase after inclusion of a reference in Wikipedia. PMID:27034629

  10. Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests

    PubMed Central

    ROKNI, Ladan; PARK, Sam-Hun

    2018-01-01

    Background: Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Methods: Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. Results: The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was ‘health and welfare’, followed by ‘social science’. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. Conclusion: The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective. PMID:29445632

  11. Demographic and substance abuse trends among pregnant and non-pregnant women: eleven years of treatment admission data.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Jennifer E; Arndt, Stephan

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study was to identify demographic and substance abuse trends among pregnant women entering treatment over eleven years. This study compiled the publicly available Treatment Episode Datasets from the Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration from 1998 to 2008. Subjects included 1,724,479 women entering publicly funded substance abuse treatment for the first time, 81,818 of whom were pregnant. Compared to non-pregnant women, pregnant women were more likely to be younger, minority, never married, less educated, homeless, and on public-assistance or have no income. Referrals from health care providers (HCPs) among pregnant women entering treatment have stayed consistently low while referrals from the criminal justice system accounted for the largest portion of pregnant women entering treatment. Over the past eleven years, there has been a general decline in alcohol abuse and an increase in drug abuse among women entering treatment; this trend was more pronounced in pregnant women. Unlike their non-pregnant counterparts, pregnant women were more likely to report marijuana, not alcohol, as their primary problem substance as well as other drugs like methamphetamine and cocaine. Over the past eleven years, trends in the demographics and patterns of substance abuse among women have changed; some of these trends were unique to pregnant women. A large proportion of pregnant women entering treatment are referred by the criminal justice system. Knowledge surrounding the demographics and abuse patterns of pregnant women entering treatment can inform HCPs and community programs in their screening and outreach efforts.

  12. Trends in prescription drug expenditures by Medicaid enrollees.

    PubMed

    Banthin, Jessica S; Miller, G Edward

    2006-05-01

    As prescription drug expenditures consume an increasingly larger portion of Medicaid budgets, states are anxious to control drug costs without endangering enrollees' health. In this report, we analyzed recent trends in Medicaid prescription drug expenditures by therapeutic classes and subclasses. Identifying the fastest growing categories of drugs, where drugs are grouped into clinically relevant classes and subclasses, can help policymakers decide where to focus their cost containment efforts. We used data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey linked to a prescription drug therapeutic classification system, to examine trends between 1996/1997 and 2001/2002 in utilization and expenditures for the noninstitutionalized Medicaid population. We separated aggregate trends into changes in population with use and changes in expenditures per user, and percent generic. We also highlighted differences within the Medicaid population, including children, adults, disabled, and elderly. We found rapid growth in expenditures for antidepressants, antipsychotics, antihyperlipidemics, antidiabetic agents, antihistamines, COX-2 inhibitors, and proton pump inhibitors and found evidence supporting the rapid take-up of new drugs. In some cases these increases are the result of increased expenditures per user and in other cases the overall growth also comes from an increase in the population with use. Medicaid programs may want to reassess their cost-containment policies in light of the rapid take-up of new drugs. Our analysis also identifies areas in which more information is needed on the comparative effectiveness of new versus existing treatments.

  13. Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, James

    2012-01-01

    To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

  14. Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends between 2000 and 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities-related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data…

  15. Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kramer, Gunnar R.; Andersen, David; Buehler, David A.; Wood, Petra B.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Aldinger, Kyle R.; Bulluck, Lesley P.; Harding, Sergio R.; Jones, John A.; Loegering, John P.; Smalling, Curtis G.; Vallender, Rachel; Streby, Henry M.

    2018-01-01

    Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

  16. Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ju; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Miao, Hong; Wang, Xiaoke

    2011-01-01

    The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980's using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends: a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate (TSP), as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy efficiency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.

  17. Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

  18. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

    2005-11-01

    A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

  19. Walking, cycling and driving to work in the English and Welsh 2011 census: trends, socio-economic patterning and relevance to travel behaviour in general.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971-2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002-2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (-1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (-0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census

  20. Walking, Cycling and Driving to Work in the English and Welsh 2011 Census: Trends, Socio-Economic Patterning and Relevance to Travel Behaviour in General

    PubMed Central

    Goodman, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy

  1. Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

    2016-04-01

    Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

  2. Assessment of open operative vascular surgical experience among general surgery residents.

    PubMed

    Krafcik, Brianna M; Sachs, Teviah E; Farber, Alik; Eslami, Mohammad H; Kalish, Jeffrey A; Shah, Nishant K; Peacock, Matthew R; Siracuse, Jeffrey J

    2016-04-01

    General surgeons have traditionally performed open vascular operations. However, endovascular interventions, vascular residencies, and work-hour limitations may have had an impact on open vascular surgery training among general surgery residents. We evaluated the temporal trend of open vascular operations performed by general surgery residents to assess any changes that have occurred. The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's database was used to evaluate graduating general surgery residents' cases from 1999 to 2013. Mean and median case volumes were analyzed for carotid endarterectomy, open aortoiliac aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Significance of temporal trends were identified using the R(2) test. The average number of carotid endarterectomies performed by general surgery residents decreased from 23.1 ± 14 (11.6 ± 9 chief, 11.4 + 10 junior) cases per resident in 1999 to 10.7 ± 9 (3.4 ± 5 chief, 7.3 ± 6 junior) in 2012 (R(2) = 0.98). Similarly, elective open aortoiliac aneurysm repairs decreased from 7.4 ± 5 (4 ± 4 chief, 3.4 ± 4 junior) in 1999 to 1.3 ± 2 (0.4 ± 1 chief, 0.8 ± 1 junior) in 2012 (R(2) = 0.98). The number of lower extremity bypasses decreased from 21 ± 12 (9.5 ± 7 chief, 11.8 ± 9 junior) in 1999 to 7.6 ± 2.6 (2.4 ± 1.3 chief, 5.2 + 1.8 junior) in 2012 (R(2) = 0.94). Infrapopliteal bypasses decreased from 8.1 ± 3.8 (3.5 ± 2.2 chief, 4.5 ± 2.9 junior) in 2001 to 3 ± 2.2 (1 ± 1.6 chief, 2 ± 1.6 junior) in 2012 (R(2) = 0.94). General surgery resident exposure to open vascular surgery has significantly decreased. Current and future graduates may not have adequate exposure to open vascular operations to be safely credentialed to perform these procedures in future practice without advanced vascular surgical training. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends and Challenges in Smart Healthcare Research: A Journey from Data to Wisdom

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Solanas, Agusti; Fran, Casino; Batista, Edgar

    Smart Healthcare is a relatively new context-aware healthcare paradigm influenced by several fields of knowledge, namely medical informatics, communications and electronics, bioengineering, ethics and so on. Thus, many challenging problems are related to smart healthcare but in many cases they are explored individually in their respective fields and, as a result, they are not always known by the smart healthcare research community working in more specific domains. The aim of this article is to identify some of the most relevant trends and research lines that are going to affect the smart healthcare field in the years to come. To domore » so, the article considers a systematic approach that classifies the identified research trends and problems according to their appearance within the data life cycle, this is, from the data gathering in the physical layer (lowest level) until their final use in the application layer (highest level). By identifying and classifying those research trends and challenges, we help to pose questions that the smart healthcare community will need to address. Consequently, we set a common ground to explore important problems in the field, which will have significant impact in the years to come.« less

  4. Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliam, Brian K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

  5. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

    Treesearch

    Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

    2009-01-01

    The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

  6. Linking diurnal trends in methylmercury concentration and organic matter photo-reactivity in wetlands of the Yolo Bypass, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleck, J. A.; Downing, B. D.; Saraceno, J.; Gill, G.; Stephenson, M.; Bergamaschi, B. A.

    2008-12-01

    Aqueous concentrations of methylmercury (MeHg) are known to vary temporally and spatially due to multiple concurrent production and loss mechanisms, and due to variations in the hydrologic connectivity between the methylating substrate (most commonly the benthos) and the overlying water compartments. Diurnal trends in MeHg production, bacterial demethylation, photo-demethylation, diffusion and advection transport processes have been identified and investigated; however, the magnitude and relative importance of each process in mediating overlying water MeHg concentrations, is not well known in natural wetland systems. Temporal variations in aqueous MeHg concentrations may impact the biological accumulation of MeHg into the base of the aquatic food chain, and may challenge regulatory efforts designed to mitigate MeHg exports from point and non-point sources. To identify the possible "hot moments" during the diurnal cycle, surface water MeHg concentrations were monitored in two agricultural wetland settings (wild rice and white rice fields) over a 24- hour period within the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area, California using a combination of in situ optical sensors and traditional surface-water grab samples. In the wild rice field, MeHg concentrations doubled from 1 ng/L to 2 ng/L over the nighttime hours and returned to 1 ng/L during the daylight hours, whereas the white rice field showed no significant variation in MeHg concentration (0.73 +/- 0.08 ng/L) throughout the diurnal cycle. Similar trends were observed when MeHg data was expressed as a percentage of total Hg, with both wetland habitats exhibiting similar levels (20% MeHg) following the nighttime period and the wild rice field declining to 10% in the early evening. Field parameters measured in situ (including: solar radiation, pH, dissolved oxygen, and temperature) exhibited large diurnal trends in both wetlands, whereas optical proxies for dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition mirrored the fluctuations in Me

  7. Regional Kendall test for trend

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Helsel, D.R.; Frans, L.M.

    2006-01-01

    Trends in environmental variables are often investigated within a study region at more than one site. At each site, a trend analysis determines whether a trend has occurred. Yet often also of interest is whether a consistent trend is evident throughout the entire region. This paper adapts the Seasonal Kendall trend test to determine whether a consistent regional trend occurs in environmental variables.

  8. The American Freshman: Twenty-Five Year Trends, 1966-1990.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dey, Eric L.; And Others

    This report summarizes trends identified in 25 years of the Cooperative Institutional Research Program's annual surveys of college freshmen. It documents an array of demographic, attitudinal, and social changes involving students entering the nation's colleges since the survey's inception in 1966. Major findings from this report point to…

  9. Perspective: Biotech funding trends: Insights from entrepreneurs and investors.

    PubMed

    Gruber, Alexandra C

    2009-08-01

    Based on a qualitative study analyzing a series of interviews with dedicated biotech entrepreneurs and high-level investors, "Biotech Funding Trends" provides a comprehensive overview of current trends in biotech funding by taking a close look behind the scenes of the biotech industry. In particular, it illustrates the tensions between both key players based on their different backgrounds and expectations. Here we outline the various funding opportunities for the biotech industry in Europe and identify ways for both sides, entrepreneurs and investors to overcome their prejudices to successfully thrive in a competitive environment. The results are also discussed in the light of the current financial and economic crisis.

  10. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasson, S.; Böhner, J.; Lucarini, V.

    2015-03-01

    Largely depending on meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus basin (UIB) contribute to half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, we present a comprehensive hydro-climatic trend analysis over the UIB, including for the first time observations from high-altitude automated weather stations. We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961-2012). We apply Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen's slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July-October (March-May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961-2012). We also find general cooling in Tx and a mixed response in Tavg during the winter season and a year round decrease in DTR, which are in direct contrast to their long term trends. The observed decrease in DTR is stronger and more significant at high altitude stations (above 2200 m a.s.l.), and mostly due to higher cooling in Tx than in Tn. Moreover, we find a field

  11. Computational intelligence for the Balanced Scorecard: studying performance trends of hemodialysis clinics.

    PubMed

    Cattinelli, Isabella; Bolzoni, Elena; Chermisi, Milena; Bellocchio, Francesco; Barbieri, Carlo; Mari, Flavio; Amato, Claudia; Menzer, Marcus; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele

    2013-07-01

    The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a general, widely employed instrument for enterprise performance monitoring based on the periodic assessment of strategic Key Performance Indicators that are scored against preset targets. The BSC is currently employed as an effective management support tool within Fresenius Medical Care (FME) and is routinely analyzed via standard statistical methods. More recently, the application of computational intelligence techniques (namely, self-organizing maps) to BSC data has been proposed as a way to enhance the quantity and quality of information that can be extracted from it. In this work, additional methods are presented to analyze the evolution of clinic performance over time. Performance evolution is studied at the single-clinic level by computing two complementary indexes that measure the proportion of time spent within performance clusters and improving/worsening trends. Self-organizing maps are used in conjunction with these indexes to identify the specific drivers of the observed performance. The performance evolution for groups of clinics is modeled under a probabilistic framework by resorting to Markov chain properties. These allow a study of the probability of transitioning between performance clusters as time progresses for the identification of the performance level that is expected to become dominant over time. We show the potential of the proposed methods through illustrative results derived from the analysis of BSC data of 109 FME clinics in three countries. We were able to identify the performance drivers for specific groups of clinics and to distinguish between countries whose performances are likely to improve from those where a decline in performance might be expected. According to the stationary distribution of the Markov chain, the expected trend is best in Turkey (where the highest performance cluster has the highest probability, P=0.46), followed by Portugal (where the second best performance cluster dominates

  12. Trends in Psychotherapy Training: A National Survey of Psychiatry Residency Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sudak, Donna M.; Goldberg, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The authors sought to determine current trends in residency training of psychiatrists. Method: The authors surveyed U.S. general-psychiatry training directors about the amount of didactic training, supervised clinical experience, and numbers of patients treated in the RRC-mandated models of psychotherapy (psychodynamic,…

  13. Porosity-depth trends of carbonate deposits along the northwest shelf of Australia (IODP Expedition 356)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Eun Young; Kominz, Michelle; Reuning, Lars; Takayanagi, Hideko; Knierzinger, Wolfgang; Wagreich, Michael; Expedition 356 shipboard scientists, IODP

    2017-04-01

    The northwest shelf (NWS) of Australia extends from northern tropical to southern temperate latitudes situated offshore from the low-moderate-relief and semi-arid Australian continent. The shelf environment is dominated throughout by carbonate sedimentation with warm-water and tropical carbonate deposits, connected to the long-term northward drift of Australia bringing the NWS into tropical latitudes. IODP expedition 356 cored seven sites (U1458-U1464) covering a latitudinal range of 29°S-18°S off the NWS. This study focuses on porosity-depth trends of the Miocene - Pleistocene carbonate sediment on the NWS. The NWS is an ideal area to study regional (and furthermore general) carbonate porosity-depth relationships, because it contains a nearly continuous sequence of carbonate sediment ranging in depth from the surface to about 1,100m and in age from Pleistocene to Miocene. Porosity-depth trends of sedimentary rocks are generally controlled by a variety of factors which govern the rates of porosity loss due to mechanical compaction and of porosity loss (or gain) due to chemical processes during diagenesis. This study derives porosity data from Moisture and Density (MAD) technique conducted during IODP Expedition 356. MAD samples were collected from packstone (44%), wackestone (27%), mudstone (15%) and grainstone (7%), with the rest from floatstone, rudstone, dolostone, sandstone and other subordinate lithologies. To understand porosity-depth trends, the porosity data are arranged both exponentially and linearly, and correlated with age models and lithologic descriptions provided by IODP shipboard scientists. Porosity(%)-depth(m) trends of all the porosity data are Porosity=52e-0.0008/Depth (exponential) and Porosity=-0.03Depth+52 (linear). Porosities near surface and in the deepest parts of each well are least well represented by these trend lines. Porosity values of Pleistocene sediment are generally higher than those of Miocene - Pliocene sediment. The initial

  14. Industry trends point toward bright future

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kliewer, G.

    Examination of the trends for the past 5 yr shows increasing soundness in the international petroleum industry. U.S. figures alone have a mixed complexion, with imports, exports, crude prices, and demand rising steadily. U.S. crude oil production, however, increased through 1970, but leveled off last year. Decreases occurred during 1971 in the number of rigs working, gas producers, and wildcats drilled. Trends in Free World drilling and production (outside the U.S. and Canada) have been upward and are expected to continue expanding generally through the year 2000. World petroleum demand, the key to this activity, has risen steadily, and allmore » forecasts predict increases of around 3.5% a yr for the next 15 yr. Included in this outlook is a booming natural gas use, which comes as a result of worldwide emphasis on clean-burning, nonpolluting fuels. Competition among energy sources may not materialize. Instead, a mix of all available energy sources will be needed to meet the demand. Tabular data provide complete details.« less

  15. Trends in Retail Clinic Use Among The Commercially Insured

    PubMed Central

    Ashwood, J. Scott; Reid, Rachel O.; Setodji, Claude M.; Weber, Ellerie; Gaynor, Martin; Mehrotra, Ateev

    2012-01-01

    Objective To describe trends in retail clinic usage among commercially insured patients and to identify which patient characteristics predict retail clinic use Study Design We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of commercial insurance claims sampled from a population of 13.3 million patients in 21 markets in 2007-9. Methods We identified 11 simple acute conditions that can be managed at a retail clinic. We described trends in retail clinic utilization for these conditions. We used multiple logistic regressions to identify predictors of retail clinic versus another care site for these conditions and assessed whether those predictors changed over time. Results Retail clinic use increased ten-fold from 2007 to 2009. By 2009 6.9% of all visits for the 11 conditions were to a retail clinic. Proximity to a retail clinic was the strongest predictor of use. Patients living within 1 mile of a retail clinic were 10.0% more likely to use one than those living 10-20 miles away (p-value <0.001). Women (+0.9%, p-value <0.001), young adults (+1.6%, p-value <0.001), those without a chronic condition (+1.1%, p-value <0.001), and high-income (+1.3%, p-value <0.001) patients were more likely to use retail clinics. All these associations became stronger over time. There was no association between primary care physician availability and retail clinic use. Conclusions If these trends continue health plans can expect to see a dramatic increase in retail clinic utilization. While usage is increasing on average, it is particularly increasing among young, healthy, and higher income patients who live close to retail clinics. PMID:22200061

  16. General Equilibrium Models: Improving the Microeconomics Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nicholson, Walter; Westhoff, Frank

    2009-01-01

    General equilibrium models now play important roles in many fields of economics including tax policy, environmental regulation, international trade, and economic development. The intermediate microeconomics classroom has not kept pace with these trends, however. Microeconomics textbooks primarily focus on the insights that can be drawn from the…

  17. 17 CFR 229.10 - (Item 10) General.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... trends. There may be instances, however, when it is appropriate to present earnings (loss) from... (loss). It generally would be misleading to present sales or revenue projections without one of the... highlight for investors the most significant risk and profit-sensitive areas in a business operation. (iii...

  18. When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only, the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting time scale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus also minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, in southwestern and southeastern Europe summer trends in mean precipitation emerge already within the next decades. Yet across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend in general emerges earlier. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

  19. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    PubMed

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  20. Trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009.

    PubMed

    Sivarajasingam, Vaseekaran; Page, Nicholas; Morgan, Peter; Matthews, Kent; Moore, Simon; Shepherd, Jonathan

    2014-03-01

    Injury records from Emergency Departments (EDs) have been studied over the last decade as part of the work of the National Violence Surveillance Network (NVSN) and provide information about local, regional and national violence levels and trends in England and Wales. The purpose of the current study is to evaluate overall, gender, age-specific and regional trends in community violence in England and Wales from an ED perspective from January 2005 to December 2009. Violence-related injury data were collected prospectively in a stratified sample of 77 EDs (Types 1, 3 and 4) in the nine Government Office Regions in England and in Wales. All 77 EDs were recruited on the basis that they had implemented and continued to comply with the provisions of the 1998 Data Protection Act and Caldicott guidance. Attendance date, age and gender of patients who reported injury in violence were identified using assault-related attendance codes, specified at the local level. Time series statistical methods were used to detect both regional and national trends. In total 221,673 (163,384 males: 74%) violence-related attendances were identified. Overall estimated annual injury rate was 6.5 per 1000 resident population (males 9.8 and females 3.4 per 1000). Violence affecting males and females decreased significantly in England and Wales over the 5-year period, with an overall estimated annual decrease of 3% (95% CI: 1.8-4.1%, p<0.05). Attendances decreased significantly for both genders across four out of the five age groups studied. Attendances were found to be highest during the months of May and July and lowest in February. Substantial differences in violence-related ED attendances were identified at the regional level. From this ED perspective overall violence in England and Wales decreased over the period 2005-2009 but increased in East Midlands, London and South West regions. Since 2006, overall trends according to Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), police and ED measures were

  1. Trends of influenza infection in Suriname

    PubMed Central

    Adhin, Malti R.; Grunberg, Meritha; Labadie‐Bracho, Mergiory

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Adhin et al. (2012) Trends of Influenza infection in Suriname. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/irv.12037. The trends of influenza infection in Suriname were assessed from February 2010 through February 2011. Testing of 393 patients with symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI) revealed 15·3% Influenza B and 18·6% could be identified as influenza A positive, consisting of 56% influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 44% seasonal A(H3N2). Influenza infection occurred throughout the year, and all three influenza types affected young children as the primary population. The annual incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 was 6·88 per 100 000 inhabitants [CI] 4·87–9·45. The spread of influenza could neither be linked to tourist flow from the Netherlands nor to contact rates related to school schedules. PMID:23136977

  2. Recent trends in automobile recycling: An energy and economic assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Curlee, T.R.; Das, S.; Rizy, C.G.

    1994-03-01

    Recent and anticipated trends in the material composition of domestic and imported automobiles and the increasing cost of landfilling the non-recyclable portion of automobiles (automobile shredder residue or ASR) pose questions about the future of automobile recycling. This report documents the findings of a study sponsored by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Analysis to examine the impacts of these and other relevant trends on the life-cycle energy consumption of automobiles and on the economic viability of the domestic automobile recycling industry. More specifically, the study (1) reviewed the status of the automobile recycling industry in the Unitedmore » States, including the current technologies used to process scrapped automobiles and the challenges facing the automobile recycling industry; (2) examined the current status and future trends of automobile recycling in Europe and Japan, with the objectives of identifying ``lessons learned`` and pinpointing differences between those areas and the United States; (3) developed estimates of the energy system impacts of the recycling status quo and projections of the probable energy impacts of alternative technical and institutional approaches to recycling; and (4) identified the key policy questions that will determine the future economic viability of automobile shredder facilities in the United States.« less

  3. Trends in Basic Sciences Education in Dental Schools, 1999-2016.

    PubMed

    Lantz, Marilyn S; Shuler, Charles F

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine data published over the past two decades to identify trends in the basic sciences curriculum in dental education, provide an analysis of those trends, and compare them with trends in the basic sciences curriculum in medical education. Data published from the American Dental Association (ADA) Surveys of Dental Education, American Dental Education Association (ADEA) Surveys of Dental School Seniors, and two additional surveys were examined. In large part, survey data collected focused on the structure, content, and instructional strategies used in dental education: what was taught and how. Great variability was noted in the total clock hours of instruction and the clock hours of basic sciences instruction reported by dental schools. Moreover, the participation of medical schools in the basic sciences education of dental students appears to have decreased dramatically over the past decade. Although modest progress has been made in implementing some of the curriculum changes recommended in the 1995 Institute of Medicine report such as integrated basic and clinical sciences curricula, adoption of active learning methods, and closer engagement with medical and other health professions education programs, educational effectiveness studies needed to generate data to support evidence-based approaches to curriculum reform are lacking. Overall, trends in the basic sciences curriculum in medical education were similar to those for dental education. Potential drivers of curriculum change were identified, as was recent work in other fields that should encourage reconsideration of dentistry's approach to basic sciences education. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century."

  4. Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

    PubMed

    Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

  5. Much more medicine for the oldest old: trends in UK electronic clinical records

    PubMed Central

    Melzer, David; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Winder, Rachel E.; Masoli, Jane A. H.; Henley, William E.; Ble, Alessandro; Richards, Suzanne H.

    2015-01-01

    Background: the oldest old (85+) pose complex medical challenges. Both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis are claimed in this group. Objective: to estimate diagnosis, prescribing and hospital admission prevalence from 2003/4 to 2011/12, to monitor trends in medicalisation. Design and setting: observational study of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic medical records from general practice populations (eligible; n = 27,109) with oversampling of the oldest old. Methods: we identified 18 common diseases and five geriatric syndromes (dizziness, incontinence, skin ulcers, falls and fractures) from Read codes. We counted medications prescribed ≥1 time in all quarters of studied years. Results: there were major increases in recorded prevalence of most conditions in the 85+ group, especially chronic kidney disease (stages 3–5: prevalence <1% rising to 36.4%). The proportions of the 85+ group with ≥3 conditions rose from 32.2 to 55.1% (27.1 to 35.1% in the 65–84 year group). Geriatric syndrome trends were less marked. In the 85+ age group the proportion receiving no chronically prescribed medications fell from 29.6 to 13.6%, while the proportion on ≥3 rose from 44.6 to 66.2%. The proportion of 85+ year olds with ≥1 hospital admissions per year rose from 27.6 to 35.4%. Conclusions: there has been a dramatic increase in the medicalisation of the oldest old, evident in increased diagnosis (likely partly due to better record keeping) but also increased prescribing and hospitalisation. Diagnostic trends especially for chronic kidney disease may raise concerns about overdiagnosis. These findings provide new urgency to questions about the appropriateness of multiple diagnostic labelling. PMID:25103030

  6. Much more medicine for the oldest old: trends in UK electronic clinical records.

    PubMed

    Melzer, David; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Winder, Rachel E; Masoli, Jane A H; Henley, William E; Ble, Alessandro; Richards, Suzanne H

    2015-01-01

    the oldest old (85+) pose complex medical challenges. Both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis are claimed in this group. to estimate diagnosis, prescribing and hospital admission prevalence from 2003/4 to 2011/12, to monitor trends in medicalisation. observational study of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic medical records from general practice populations (eligible; n = 27,109) with oversampling of the oldest old. we identified 18 common diseases and five geriatric syndromes (dizziness, incontinence, skin ulcers, falls and fractures) from Read codes. We counted medications prescribed ≥1 time in all quarters of studied years. there were major increases in recorded prevalence of most conditions in the 85+ group, especially chronic kidney disease (stages 3-5: prevalence <1% rising to 36.4%). The proportions of the 85+ group with ≥3 conditions rose from 32.2 to 55.1% (27.1 to 35.1% in the 65-84 year group). Geriatric syndrome trends were less marked. In the 85+ age group the proportion receiving no chronically prescribed medications fell from 29.6 to 13.6%, while the proportion on ≥3 rose from 44.6 to 66.2%. The proportion of 85+ year olds with ≥1 hospital admissions per year rose from 27.6 to 35.4%. there has been a dramatic increase in the medicalisation of the oldest old, evident in increased diagnosis (likely partly due to better record keeping) but also increased prescribing and hospitalisation. Diagnostic trends especially for chronic kidney disease may raise concerns about overdiagnosis. These findings provide new urgency to questions about the appropriateness of multiple diagnostic labelling. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.

  7. Energy use and conservation trends, 1972--1986

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Klan, M.S.; Belzer, D.B.; Marsh, S.J.

    1989-02-01

    US trends in energy use and conservation since 1972 are analyzed in this report. That year represents the last year prior to significant energy price shocks. In 1986, an estimated 31.8 quads has been saved in the US compared with what consumption would have been if the energy use per dollar of GNP had continued on the same trend after 1972 as in the period 1960--1972. Actual US energy consumption in 1986 was 74.3 quads. It is clear that energy conservation is persistent and conservation investments continue to pay off even after initial energy price shocks have subsided. Separate analysesmore » have been conducted for the major end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation). Savings have been estimated in each sector, and the factors contributing to sectoral savings identified. 19 refs., 23 figs., 26 tabs.« less

  8. Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Gu, Yu; Diner, David; Worden, John; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Xing, Jia; Garay, Michael; Huang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    Understanding long-term trends in aerosol loading and properties is essential for evaluating the health and climatic effects of these airborne particulates as well as the effectiveness of pollution control policies. While many studies have used satellite data to examine the trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD), very few have investigated the trends in aerosol properties associated with particle size, morphology, and light absorption. In this study, we investigate decadal-scale (13-15 year) trends in aerosol loading and properties during 2001-2015 over three populous regions: the Eastern United States (EUS), Western Europe (WEU), and Eastern and Central China (ECC). We use observations from MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Relationships between aerosol property trends and air pollutant emission changes are examined. We find that annual mean AOD shows pronounced decreasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, as a result of considerable emission reductions in all major pollutants except for mineral dust and ammonia (NH3). Over the ECC region, AOD increases before 2006 due to emission increases induced by rapid economic development, fluctuates between 2006 and 2011, and subsequently decreases after 2011 in conjunction with effective emission reduction in anthropogenic primary aerosols, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The fraction of small-size AOD (<0.7 μm diameter), Ångstrom exponent and single-scattering albedo have generally decreased, while the fractions of large-size (>1.4 μm diameter), nonspherical and absorbing AOD have generally shown increasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, indicating that fine and light-scattering aerosol constituents have been more effectively reduced than coarse and light-absorbing constituents. These trends are consistent with the larger reduction ratios in SO2 and NOx emissions than in primary aerosols, including mineral dust and black carbon (BC

  9. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  10. Information Security Trends and Issues in the Moodle E-Learning Platform: An Ethnographic Content Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schultz, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Empirical research on information security trends and practices in e-learning is scarce. Many articles that have been published apply basic information security concepts to e-learning and list potential threats or propose frameworks for classifying threats. The purpose of this research is to identify, categorize and understand trends and issues in…

  11. Internet of Things in Health Trends Through Bibliometrics and Text Mining.

    PubMed

    Konstantinidis, Stathis Th; Billis, Antonis; Wharrad, Heather; Bamidis, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    Recently a new buzzword has slowly but surely emerged, namely the Internet of Things (IoT). The importance of IoT is identified worldwide both by organisations and governments and the scientific community with an incremental number of publications during the last few years. IoT in Health is one of the main pillars of this evolution, but limited research has been performed on future visions and trends. Thus, in this study we investigate the longitudinal trends of Internet of Things in Health through bibliometrics and use of text mining. Seven hundred seventy eight (778) articles were retrieved form The Web of Science database from 1998 to 2016. The publications are grouped into thirty (30) clusters based on abstract text analysis resulting into some eight (8) trends of IoT in Health. Research in this field is obviously obtaining a worldwide character with specific trends, which are worth delineating to be in favour of some areas.

  12. Groundwater-level trends in the U.S. glacial aquifer system, 1964-2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.; Renard, Benjamin; Qi, Sharon L.

    2017-01-01

    The glacial aquifer system in the United States is a major source of water supply but previous work on historical groundwater trends across the system is lacking. Trends in annual minimum, mean, and maximum groundwater levels for 205 monitoring wells were analyzed across three regions of the system (East, Central, West Central) for four time periods: 1964-2013, 1974-2013, 1984-2013, and 1994-2013. Trends were computed separately for wells in the glacial aquifer system with low potential for human influence on groundwater levels and ones with high potential influence from activities such as groundwater pumping. Generally there were more wells with significantly increasing groundwater levels (levels closer to ground surface) than wells with significantly decreasing levels. The highest numbers of significant increases for all four time periods were with annual minimum and/or mean levels. There were many more wells with significant increases from 1964 to 2013 than from more recent periods, consistent with low precipitation in the 1960s. Overall there were low numbers of wells with significantly decreasing trends regardless of time period considered; the highest number of these were generally for annual minimum groundwater levels at wells with likely human influence. There were substantial differences in the number of wells with significant groundwater-level trends over time, depending on whether the historical time series are assumed to be independent, have short-term persistence, or have long-term persistence. Mean annual groundwater levels have significant lag-one-year autocorrelation at 26.0% of wells in the East region, 65.4% of wells in the Central region, and 100% of wells in the West Central region. Annual precipitation across the glacial aquifer system, on the other hand, has significant autocorrelation at only 5.5% of stations, about the percentage expected due to chance.

  13. Eleven-year trend in acetanilide pesticide degradates in the Iowa River, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Capel, Paul D.; Meyer, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    Trends in concentration and loads of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor and their ethanasulfonic (ESA) and oxanilic (OXA) acid degradates were studied from 1996 through 2006 in the main stem of the Iowa River, Iowa and in the South Fork Iowa River, a small tributary near the headwaters of the Iowa River. Concentration trends were determined using the parametric regression model SEAWAVE-Q, which accounts for seasonal and flow-related variability. Daily estimated concentrations generated from the model were used with daily streamflow to calculate daily and yearly loads. Acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and their ESA and OXA degradates were generally present in >50% of the samples collected from both sites throughout the study. Their concentrations generally decreased from 1996 through 2006, although the rate of decrease was slower after 2001. Concentrations of the ESA and OXA degradates decreased from 3 to about 23% yr-1. The concentration trend was related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period. Decreasing concentrations and constant runoff resulted in an average reduction of 10 to >3000 kg per year of alachlor and metolachlor ESA and OXA degradates being transported out of the Iowa River watershed. Transport of acetochlor and metolachlor parent compounds and their degradates from the Iowa River watershed ranged from <1% to about 6% of the annual application. These trends were related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period, but the year-to-year variability cannot explain changes in loads based on herbicide use alone. The trends were also affected by the timing and amount of precipitation. As expected, increased amounts of water moving through the watershed moved a greater percentage of the applied herbicides, especially the relatively soluble degradates, from the soils into the rivers through surface runoff, shallow groundwater inflow, and subsurface drainage.

  14. Evaluation of precipitation trends from high-resolution satellite precipitation products over Mainland China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fengrui; Gao, Yongqi

    2018-01-01

    Many studies have reported the excellent ability of high-resolution satellite precipitation products (0.25° or finer) to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, it is not known whether the precipitation trends derived from them are reliable. For the first time, we have evaluated the annual and seasonal precipitation trends from two typical sources of high-resolution satellite-gauge products, TRMM 3B43 and PERSIANN-CDR, using rain gauge observations over China, and they were also compared with those from gauge-only products (0.25° and 0.5° precipitation products, hereafter called CN25 and CN50). The evaluation focused mainly on the magnitude, significance, sign, and relative order of the precipitation trends, and was conducted at gridded and regional scales. The following results were obtained: (1) at the gridded scale, neither satellite-gauge products precisely measure the magnitude of precipitation trends but they do reproduce their sign and relative order; regarding capturing the significance of trends, they exhibit relatively acceptable performance only over regions with a sufficient amount of significant precipitation trends; (2) at the regional scale, both satellite-gauge products generally provide reliable precipitation trends, although they do not reproduce the magnitude of trends in winter precipitation; and (3) overall, CN50 and TRMM 3B43 outperform others in reproducing all four aspects of the precipitation trends. Compared with CN25, PERSIANN-CDR performs better in determining the magnitude of precipitation trends but marginally worse in reproducing their sign and relative order; moreover, both of them are at a level in capturing the significance of precipitation trends.

  15. Pesticide trends in major rivers of the United States, 1992-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

    2014-01-01

    This report is part of a series of pesticide trend assessments led by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This assessment focuses on major rivers of various sizes throughout the United States that have large watersheds with a range of land uses, changes in pesticide use, changes in management practices, and natural influences typical of the regions being drained. Trends were assessed at 59 sites for 40 pesticides and pesticide degradates during each of three overlapping periods: 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–10. In addition to trends in concentration, trends in agricultural-use intensity (agricultural use) were also assessed at 57 of the sites for 35 parent compounds with agricultural uses during the same three periods. The SEAWAVE-Q model was used to analyze trends in concentration, and parametric survival regression for interval-censored data was used to assess trends in agricultural use. All trends are provided in downloadable electronic files. A subset of 39 sites was chosen to represent non-nested, generally independent basins for a national analysis of pesticide and agricultural-use trends for the most prevalent pesticides (15 pesticides and 2 degradation products). Graphical and numerical results are presented to provide a national overview of concentration and use trends. As another perspective on understanding pesticide concentration trends in large rivers in relation to multiple tributary watersheds, this report also presents a detailed assessment of concentration and use trends for simazine, metolachlor, atrazine, deethylatrazine, and diazinon for a set of 17 nested sites in the Mississippi River Basin (including the Ohio and Missouri River Basins), for the second and third trend periods. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use—cyanazine, metolachlor, atrazine, and alachlor—had widespread agreement between concentration trends and agricultural-use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in

  16. Spatial Distribution and Trends of Waterborne Diseases in Tashkent Province

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Veluswami Saravanan; Cho, Min Jung; Tan, Siwei Zoe; Fayzieva, Dilorom; Sebaly, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The cumulative effect of limited investment in public water systems, inadequate public health infrastructure, and gaps in infectious disease prevention increased the incidence of waterborne diseases in Uzbekistan. The objectives of this study were: (1) to spatially analyze the distribution of the diseases in Tashkent Province, (2) to identify the intensity of spatial trends in the province, (3) to identify urban-rural characteristics of the disease distribution, and (4) to identify the differences in disease incidence between pediatric and adult populations of the province. Methods: Data on four major waterborne diseases and socio-demographics factors were collected in Tashkent Province from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal methods were used to investigate the distribution and trends, and to identify waterborne diseases hotspots and vulnerable population groups in the province. Results: Hepatitis A and enterobiasis had a high incidence in most of Tashkent Province, with higher incidences in the eastern and western districts. Residents of rural areas, including children, were found to be more vulnerable to the waterborne diseases compared to other populations living in the province. Conclusions: This pilot study calls for more scientific investigations of waterborne diseases and their effect on public health in the region, which could facilitate targeted public health interventions in vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan. PMID:29138738

  17. Spatial Distribution and Trends of Waterborne Diseases in Tashkent Province.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Veluswami Saravanan; Cho, Min Jung; Tan, Siwei Zoe; Fayzieva, Dilorom; Sebaly, Christian

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effect of limited investment in public water systems, inadequate public health infrastructure, and gaps in infectious disease prevention increased the incidence of waterborne diseases in Uzbekistan. The objectives of this study were: (1) to spatially analyze the distribution of the diseases in Tashkent Province, (2) to identify the intensity of spatial trends in the province, (3) to identify urban-rural characteristics of the disease distribution, and (4) to identify the differences in disease incidence between pediatric and adult populations of the province. Data on four major waterborne diseases and socio-demographics factors were collected in Tashkent Province from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal methods were used to investigate the distribution and trends, and to identify waterborne diseases hotspots and vulnerable population groups in the province. Hepatitis A and enterobiasis had a high incidence in most of Tashkent Province, with higher incidences in the eastern and western districts. Residents of rural areas, including children, were found to be more vulnerable to the waterborne diseases compared to other populations living in the province. This pilot study calls for more scientific investigations of waterborne diseases and their effect on public health in the region, which could facilitate targeted public health interventions in vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan.

  18. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low

  19. Trends in the Northern-hemisphere Climatologies of Local Wave Activity and Fluxes in a Warming Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, S. Y.; Nakamura, N.

    2016-12-01

    The finite-amplitude local wave activity (LWA) identifies both the locations and magnitudes of anomalous wave events (Huang and Nakamura 2016, JAS), which are often associated with extreme weather conditions such as heat waves and storms at the rim. Variance in LWA in synoptic timescale is well-explained by the wave activity flux variance (i.e. conservative dynamics), while beyond seasonal time scale, the convergence/divergence of wave activity flux is balanced by non-conservative processes (e.g. vertical fluxes of heat and momentum at the surface, mixing, radiative forcing etc.). Analysis of ERA-Interim data during 1979-2015 shows that there is generally an increasing trend in the vertically-integrated interior LWA in Northern Winter, except over Central Pacific and Southern Europe. There is, in contrast, a decreasing trend in LWA in Northern summer, except over the high-latitude oceanic regions and low-latitude continental regions. The trends in the wave activity flux convergence in both seasons are consistent with such observations in LWA except over the Atlantic sector. In this presentation, I will illustrate how the change in circulation in a warming climate is associated with change in spatial distribution and frequency of extreme weather events by comparing the change in wave activity flux vectors with the observed change in LWA climatology. I will also quantify the permanent effect of non-conservative processes in terms of decadal change in eddy-free reference states of zonal wind and temperature (Nakamura and Solomon 2011).

  20. Trends in Survival After In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

    PubMed Central

    Girotra, Saket; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.; Spertus, John A.; Li, Yan; Krumholz, Harlan M.; Chan, Paul S.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Despite numerous advances in resuscitation care in recent years, it remains unknown whether survival and neurological function after in-hospital cardiac arrest has improved over time. METHODS We identified all adults with an index in-hospital cardiac arrest at 374 hospitals in the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between 2000 and 2009. Using multivariable regression, we examined temporal trends in risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge. Additional analyses explored whether trends: (1) were due to improved survival during the acute resuscitation or post-resuscitation care and (2) occurred at the expense of greater neurological disability among survivors. RESULTS Among 84,625 hospitalized patients with cardiac arrest, 67,135 (79.3%) had an initial rhythm of asystole or pulseless electrical activity while 17,490 (20.7%) had ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia. The proportion of cardiac arrests due to asystole or pulseless electrical activity increased over time (P for trend <0.001). Risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge in the overall cohort increased from 13.7% in 2000 to 22.4% in 2009 (adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.04, 95% CI [1.02–1.05]; P for trend <0.001). Survival improvement was similar in both rhythm groups and largely due to improved survival from the acute resuscitation (risk-adjusted rates: 42.7% in 2000, 54.1% in 2009; adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.03, 95% CI [1.02–1.04]; P for trend <0.001). Importantly, rates of neurological disability among survivors decreased over time (risk-adjusted rates: 32.9% in 2000, 28.1% in 2009; P for trend=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Both survival and neurological outcomes after in-hospital cardiac arrest have improved over the past decade. PMID:23150959