Identifying conservation successes, failures and future opportunities; assessing recovery potential of wild ungulates and tigers in Eastern Cambodia.

PubMed

O'Kelly, Hannah J; Evans, Tom D; Stokes, Emma J; Clements, Tom J; Dara, An; Gately, Mark; Menghor, Nut; Pollard, Edward H B; Soriyun, Men; Walston, Joe

2012-01-01

Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF), and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for ungulate

Potential of DNA sequences to identify zoanthids (Cnidaria: Zoantharia).

PubMed

Sinniger, Frederic; Reimer, James D; Pawlowski, Jan

2008-12-01

The order Zoantharia is known for its chaotic taxonomy and difficult morphological identification. One method that potentially could help for examining such troublesome taxa is DNA barcoding, which identifies species using standard molecular markers. The mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) has been utilized to great success in groups such as birds and insects; however, its applicability in many other groups is controversial. Recently, some studies have suggested that barcoding is not applicable to anthozoans. Here, we examine the use of COI and mitochondrial 16S ribosomal DNA for zoanthid identification. Despite the absence of a clear barcoding gap, our results show that for most of 54 zoanthid samples, both markers could separate samples to the species, or species group, level, particularly when easily accessible ecological or distributional data were included. Additionally, we have used the short V5 region of mt 16S rDNA to identify eight old (13 to 50 years old) museum samples. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of COI and mt 16S rDNA as barcodes for Zoantharia, and recommend that either one or both of these markers be considered for zoanthid identification in the future.

Trustworthy persistent identifier systems of the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golodoniuc, Pavel; Klump, Jens; Car, Nicholas

2016-04-01

as a highly distributed system of independent nodes that provides registration and first-degree resolution facilities for persistent identifiers, and (b) the PID Service tool to enable fine-grained resolution of object representations in dynamic datasets using parameterized requests. The PID Service, deployed in close proximity to data services and managed by individual organisations, gives great flexibility and control over multiple representations and versions of information objects in data stores while allowing basic resolution via the Handle system. Through the assessment proposals and implementation example we give, we highlight a critical aspect of PID system design and implementation that we believe is often neglected - the protocols and procedures required for PID system decommissioning. These protocols and procedures are needed in order for PID systems' core data to be able to be transferred to successor systems when current systems need replacing, as we indicate they inevitably will. Not knowing what successor systems may be, we strongly believe in using open standard formats as this gives future system implementers the best possible chance of being able to work with the data export. Smooth system handover will ensure that identifiers minted today will actually persist into the future.

Vitiligo blood transcriptomics provides new insights into disease mechanisms and identifies potential novel therapeutic targets.

PubMed

Dey-Rao, Rama; Sinha, Animesh A

2017-01-28

Significant gaps remain regarding the pathomechanisms underlying the autoimmune response in vitiligo (VL), where the loss of self-tolerance leads to the targeted killing of melanocytes. Specifically, there is incomplete information regarding alterations in the systemic environment that are relevant to the disease state. We undertook a genome-wide profiling approach to examine gene expression in the peripheral blood of VL patients and healthy controls in the context of our previously published VL-skin gene expression profile. We used several in silico bioinformatics-based analyses to provide new insights into disease mechanisms and suggest novel targets for future therapy. Unsupervised clustering methods of the VL-blood dataset demonstrate a "disease-state"-specific set of co-expressed genes. Ontology enrichment analysis of 99 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) uncovers a down-regulated immune/inflammatory response, B-Cell antigen receptor (BCR) pathways, apoptosis and catabolic processes in VL-blood. There is evidence for both type I and II interferon (IFN) playing a role in VL pathogenesis. We used interactome analysis to identify several key blood associated transcriptional factors (TFs) from within (STAT1, STAT6 and NF-kB), as well as "hidden" (CREB1, MYC, IRF4, IRF1, and TP53) from the dataset that potentially affect disease pathogenesis. The TFs overlap with our reported lesional-skin transcriptional circuitry, underscoring their potential importance to the disease. We also identify a shared VL-blood and -skin transcriptional "hot spot" that maps to chromosome 6, and includes three VL-blood dysregulated genes (PSMB8, PSMB9 and TAP1) described as potential VL-associated genetic susceptibility loci. Finally, we provide bioinformatics-based support for prioritizing dysregulated genes in VL-blood or skin as potential therapeutic targets. We examined the VL-blood transcriptome in context with our (previously published) VL-skin transcriptional profile to address

Identifying Future Disease Hot Spots: Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index.

PubMed

Moore, Melinda; Gelfeld, Bill; Okunogbe, Adeyemi; Paul, Christopher

2017-06-01

Recent high-profile outbreaks, such as Ebola and Zika, have illustrated the transnational nature of infectious diseases. Countries that are most vulnerable to such outbreaks might be higher priorities for technical support. RAND created the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index to help U.S. government and international agencies identify these countries and thereby inform programming to preemptively help mitigate the spread and effects of potential transnational outbreaks. The authors employed a rigorous methodology to identify the countries most vulnerable to disease outbreaks. They conducted a comprehensive review of relevant literature to identify factors influencing infectious disease vulnerability. Using widely available data, the authors created an index for identifying potentially vulnerable countries and then ranked countries by overall vulnerability score. Policymakers should focus on the 25 most-vulnerable countries with an eye toward a potential "disease belt" in the Sahel region of Africa. The infectious disease vulnerability scores for several countries were better than what would have been predicted on the basis of economic status alone. This suggests that low-income countries can overcome economic challenges and become more resilient to public health challenges, such as infectious disease outbreaks.

Methods of identifying potential vanpool riders.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-01-01

Identifying potential vanpool riders and matching them to form pools are fundamental tasks in the initiation of a vanpool program. The manner in which these tasks are done will determine the costs and benefits of the program. This report presents the...

Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, M.; Perry, F. V.; Valentine, G. A.; Smistad, E.

2005-12-01

Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgement, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 X 10-8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 X 10-8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered; 1) igneous intrusion-groundwater transport case and 2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, C. Dan

1989-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the last 10,000 years. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State\\'s citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. The potentially more hazardous eruptions in the State are those that involve explosive eruption of large volumes of silicic magma. Such eruptions could occur at vents in as many as four areas in California. They could eject pumice high into the atmosphere above the volcano, produce destructive blasts, avalanches, or pyroclastic flows that reach distances of tens of kilometers from a vent, and produce mudflows and floods that reach to distances of hundreds of kilometers. Smaller eruptions produce similar, but less severe and less extensive, phenomena. Hazards are greatest close to a volcanic vent; the slopes on or near a volcano, and valleys leading away from it, are affected most often and most severely by such eruptions. In general, risk from volcanic phenomena decreases with increasing distance from a vent and, for most flowage processes, with increasing height above valley floors or fan surfaces. Tephra (ash) from explosive eruptions can affect wide areas downwind from a vent. In California, prevailing winds cause the 180-degree sector east of the volcano to be affected most often and most severely. Risk to life from ashfall decreases rapidly with increasing distance from a vent, but thin deposits of ash could disrupt communication

Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

2011-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

What’s the risk? Identifying potential human pathogens within grey-headed flying foxes faeces

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Penelope; Coutts, Scott; Prosser, Toby; Boyce, John; McCarthy, David T.

2018-01-01

Pteropus poliocephalus (grey-headed flying foxes) are recognised vectors for a range of potentially fatal human pathogens. However, to date research has primarily focused on viral disease carriage, overlooking bacterial pathogens, which also represent a significant human disease risk. The current study applied 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, community analysis and a multi-tiered database OTU picking approach to identify faecal-derived zoonotic bacteria within two colonies of P. poliocephalus from Victoria, Australia. Our data show that sequences associated with Enterobacteriaceae (62.8% ± 24.7%), Pasteurellaceae (19.9% ± 25.7%) and Moraxellaceae (9.4% ± 11.8%) dominate flying fox faeces. Further colony specific differences in bacterial faecal colonisation patterns were also identified. In total, 34 potential pathogens, representing 15 genera, were identified. However, species level definition was only possible for Clostridium perfringens, which likely represents a low infectious risk due to the low proportion observed within the faeces and high infectious dose required for transmission. In contrast, sequences associated with other pathogenic species clusters such as Haemophilus haemolyticus-H. influenzae and Salmonella bongori-S. enterica, were present at high proportions in the faeces, and due to their relatively low infectious doses and modes of transmissions, represent a greater potential human disease risk. These analyses of the microbial community composition of Pteropus poliocephalus have significantly advanced our understanding of the potential bacterial disease risk associated with flying foxes and should direct future epidemiological and quantitative microbial risk assessments to further define the health risks presented by these animals. PMID:29360880

Identifying key areas of ecosystem services potential to improve ecological management in Chongqing City, southwest China.

PubMed

Xiao, Yang; Xiao, Qiang

2018-03-29

Because natural ecosystems and ecosystem services (ES) are both critical to the well-being of humankind, it is important to understand their relationships and congruence for conservation planning. Spatial conservation planning is required to set focused preservation priorities and to assess future ecological implications. This study uses the combined measures of ES models and ES potential to estimate and analyze all four groups of ecosystem services to generate opportunities to maximize ecosystem services. Subsequently, we identify the key areas of conservation priorities as future forestation and conservation hotspot zones to improve the ecological management in Chongqing City, located in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Results show that ecosystem services potential is extremely obvious. Compared to ecosystem services from 2000, we determined that soil conservation could be increased by 59.11%, carbon sequestration by 129.51%, water flow regulation by 83.42%, and water purification by 84.42%. According to our prioritization results, approximately 48% of area converted to forests exhibited high improvements in all ecosystem services (categorized as hotspot-1, hotspot-2, and hotspot-3). The hotspots identified in this study can be used as an excellent surrogate for evaluation ecological engineering benefits and can be effectively applied in improving ecological management planning.

Systems to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing in people with advanced dementia: a systematic review.

PubMed

Disalvo, Domenica; Luckett, Tim; Agar, Meera; Bennett, Alexandra; Davidson, Patricia Mary

2016-05-31

Systems for identifying potentially inappropriate medications in older adults are not immediately transferrable to advanced dementia, where the management goal is palliation. The aim of the systematic review was to identify and synthesise published systems and make recommendations for identifying potentially inappropriate prescribing in advanced dementia. Studies were included if published in a peer-reviewed English language journal and concerned with identifying the appropriateness or otherwise of medications in advanced dementia or dementia and palliative care. The quality of each study was rated using the STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist. Synthesis was narrative due to heterogeneity among designs and measures. Medline (OVID), CINAHL, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2005 - August 2014) and AMED were searched in October 2014. Reference lists of relevant reviews and included articles were searched manually. Eight studies were included, all of which were scored a high quality using the STROBE checklist. Five studies used the same system developed by the Palliative Excellence in Alzheimer Care Efforts (PEACE) Program. One study used number of medications as an index, and two studies surveyed health professionals' opinions on appropriateness of specific medications in different clinical scenarios. Future research is needed to develop and validate systems with clinical utility for improving safety and quality of prescribing in advanced dementia. Systems should account for individual clinical context and distinguish between deprescribing and initiation of medications.

Identifying factors for optimal development of health-related websites: a delphi study among experts and potential future users.

PubMed

Schneider, Francine; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein

2012-02-14

The Internet has become a popular medium for offering tailored and targeted health promotion programs to the general public. However, suboptimal levels of program use in the target population limit the public health impact of these programs. Optimizing program development is considered as one of the main processes to increase usage rates. To distinguish factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites by involving both experts and potential users. By considering and incorporating the opinions of experts and potential users in the development process, involvement in the program is expected to increase, consequently resulting in increased appreciation, lower levels of attrition, and higher levels of sustained use. We conducted a systematic three-round Delphi study through the Internet. Both national and international experts (from the fields of health promotion, health psychology, e-communication, and technical Web design) and potential users were invited via email to participate. During this study an extensive list of factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites was identified, by focusing on factors related to layout, general and risk information provision, questionnaire use, additional services, and ease of use. Furthermore, we assessed the extent to which experts and potential users agreed on the importance of these factors. Differences as well as similarities among experts and potentials users were deduced. In total, 20 of 62 contacted experts participated in the first round (32% response rate); 60 of 200 contacted experts (30% response rate) and 210 potential users (95% response rate) completed the second-round questionnaire, and 32 of 60 contacted experts completed the third round (53% response rate). Results revealed important factors consented upon by experts and potential users (eg, ease of use, clear structure, and detailed health information provision), as well as differences regarding

The gate studies: Assessing the potential of future small general aviation turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strack, W. C.

1979-01-01

Four studies were completed that explore the opportunities for future General Aviation turbine engines (GATE) in the 150-1000 SHP class. These studies forecasted the potential impact of advanced technology turbine engines in the post-1988 market, identified important aircraft and missions, desirable engine sizes, engine performance, and cost goals. Parametric evaluations of various engine cycles, configurations, design features, and advanced technology elements defined baseline conceptual engines for each of the important missions identified by the market analysis. Both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, and turboshaft, turboprop, and turbofan engines were considered. Sizable performance gains (e.g., 20% SFC decrease), and large engine cost reductions of sufficient magnitude to challenge the reciprocating engine in the 300-500 SHP class were predicted.

More than meets the eye: Using cognitive work analysis to identify design requirements for future rail level crossing systems.

PubMed

Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Mulvihill, Christine M; Cornelissen, Miranda; Walker, Guy H; Young, Kristie L; Stevens, Nicholas; Stanton, Neville A

2016-03-01

An increasing intensity of operations means that the longstanding safety issue of rail level crossings is likely to become worse in the transport systems of the future. It has been suggested that the failure to prevent collisions may be, in part, due to a lack of systems thinking during design, crash analysis, and countermeasure development. This paper presents a systems analysis of current active rail level crossing systems in Victoria, Australia that was undertaken to identify design requirements to improve safety in future rail level crossing environments. Cognitive work analysis was used to analyse rail level crossing systems using data derived from a range of activities. Overall the analysis identified a range of instances where modification or redesign in line with systems thinking could potentially improve behaviour and safety. A notable finding is that there are opportunities for redesign outside of the physical rail level crossing infrastructure, including improved data systems, in-vehicle warnings and modifications to design processes, standards and guidelines. The implications for future rail level crossing systems are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Positive selection moments identify potential functional residues in human olfactory receptors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, M. S.; Weisinger-Lewin, Y.; Lancet, D.; Shepherd, G. M.

1996-01-01

Correlated mutation analysis and molecular models of olfactory receptors have provided evidence that residues in the transmembrane domains form a binding pocket for odor ligands. As an independent test of these results, we have calculated positive selection moments for the alpha-helical sixth transmembrane domain (TM6) of human olfactory receptors. The moments can be used to identify residues that have been preferentially affected by positive selection and are thus likely to interact with odor ligands. The results suggest that residue 622, which is commonly a serine or threonine, could form critical H-bonds. In some receptors a dual-serine subsite, formed by residues 622 and 625, could bind hydroxyl determinants on odor ligands. The potential importance of these residues is further supported by site-directed mutagenesis in the beta-adrenergic receptor. The findings should be of practical value for future physiological studies, binding assays, and site-directed mutagenesis.

Identifying future research needs in landscape genetics: Where to from here?

Treesearch

Niko Balkenhol; Felix Gugerli; Sam A. Cushman; Lisette P. Waits; Aurelie Coulon; J. W. Arntzen; Rolf Holderegger; Helene H. Wagner

2009-01-01

Landscape genetics is an emerging interdisciplinary field that combines methods and concepts from population genetics, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics. The interest in landscape genetics is steadily increasing, and the field is evolving rapidly. We here outline four major challenges for future landscape genetic research that were identified during an...

Nightmares in the general population: identifying potential causal factors.

PubMed

Rek, Stephanie; Sheaves, Bryony; Freeman, Daniel

2017-09-01

Nightmares are inherently distressing, prevent restorative sleep, and are associated with a number of psychiatric problems, but have rarely been the subject of empirical study. Negative affect, linked to stressful events, is generally considered the key trigger of nightmares; hence nightmares have most often been considered in the context of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, many individuals with heightened negative affect do not have nightmares. The objective of this study was to identify mechanistically plausible factors, beyond negative affect, that may explain why individuals experience nightmares. 846 participants from the UK general population completed an online survey about nightmare occurrence and severity (pre-occupation, distress, and impairment), negative affect, worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, alcohol use, sleep duration, physical activity levels, PTSD symptoms, and stressful life events. Associations of nightmares with the putative predictive factors were tested controlling for levels of negative affect. Analyses were also repeated controlling for levels of PTSD and the recent occurrence of stressful life events. Nightmare occurrence, adjusting for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, and sleep duration (odds ratios 1.25-1.45). Nightmare severity, controlling for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, and paranoia (R 2 s: 0.33-0.39). Alcohol use and physical activity levels were not associated with nightmares. The study identifies a number of potential predictors of the occurrence and severity of nightmares. Causal roles require testing in future longitudinal, experimental, and treatment studies.

Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

PubMed

Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

2017-03-01

The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

PubMed

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Robust global identifiability theory using potentials--Application to compartmental models.

PubMed

Wongvanich, N; Hann, C E; Sirisena, H R

2015-04-01

This paper presents a global practical identifiability theory for analyzing and identifying linear and nonlinear compartmental models. The compartmental system is prolonged onto the potential jet space to formulate a set of input-output equations that are integrals in terms of the measured data, which allows for robust identification of parameters without requiring any simulation of the model differential equations. Two classes of linear and non-linear compartmental models are considered. The theory is first applied to analyze the linear nitrous oxide (N2O) uptake model. The fitting accuracy of the identified models from differential jet space and potential jet space identifiability theories is compared with a realistic noise level of 3% which is derived from sensor noise data in the literature. The potential jet space approach gave a match that was well within the coefficient of variation. The differential jet space formulation was unstable and not suitable for parameter identification. The proposed theory is then applied to a nonlinear immunological model for mastitis in cows. In addition, the model formulation is extended to include an iterative method which allows initial conditions to be accurately identified. With up to 10% noise, the potential jet space theory predicts the normalized population concentration infected with pathogens, to within 9% of the true curve. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying potential academic leaders

PubMed Central

White, David; Krueger, Paul; Meaney, Christopher; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence; Kwong, Jeffrey C.

2016-01-01

Objective To identify variables associated with willingness to undertake leadership roles among academic family medicine faculty. Design Web-based survey. Bivariate and multivariable analyses (logistic regression) were used to identify variables associated with willingness to undertake leadership roles. Setting Department of Family and Community Medicine at the University of Toronto in Ontario. Participants A total of 687 faculty members. Main outcome measures Variables related to respondents’ willingness to take on various academic leadership roles. Results Of all 1029 faculty members invited to participate in the survey, 687 (66.8%) members responded. Of the respondents, 596 (86.8%) indicated their level of willingness to take on various academic leadership roles. Multivariable analysis revealed that the predictors associated with willingness to take on leadership roles were as follows: pursuit of professional development opportunities (odds ratio [OR] 3.79, 95% CI 2.29 to 6.27); currently holding at least 1 leadership role (OR 5.37, 95% CI 3.38 to 8.53); a history of leadership training (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.78); the perception that mentorship is important for one’s current role (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.40 to 3.60); and younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99). Conclusion Willingness to undertake new or additional leadership roles was associated with 2 variables related to leadership experiences, 2 variables related to perceptions of mentorship and professional development, and 1 demographic variable (younger age). Interventions that support opportunities in these areas might expand the pool and strengthen the academic leadership potential of faculty members. PMID:27331226

Regenerative Chemical Biology: Current Challenges and Future Potential

PubMed Central

Ao, Ada; Hao, Jijun; Hong, Charles C.

2011-01-01

The enthusiasm surrounding the clinical potential of embryonic stem cells (ESCs) and induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) is tempered by the fact that key issues regarding their safety, efficacy, and long-term benefits have thus far been suboptimal. Small molecules can potentially relieve these problems at major junctions of stem cell biology and regenerative therapy. In this review, we will introduce recent advances in these important areas and the first-generation of small molecules used in the regenerative context. Current chemical biology studies will provide the archetype for future interdisciplinary collaborations, and improve clinical benefits of cell-based therapies. PMID:21513877

Historical Spice as a Future Drug: Therapeutic Potential of Piperlongumine.

PubMed

Prasad, Sahdeo; Tyagi, Amit K

2016-01-01

Spice and spice-derived compounds have been identified and explored for their health benefits since centuries. One of the spice long pepper has been traditionally used to treat chronic bronchitis, asthma, constipation, gonorrhea, paralysis of the tongue, diarrhea, cholera, malaria, viral hepatitis, respiratory infections, stomach ache, diseases of the spleen, cough, and tumors. In this review, the evidences for the chemopreventive and chemotherapeutic potential of piperlongumine have been described. The active component piperlonguime has shown effective against various ailments including cancer, neurogenerative disease, arthritis, melanogenesis, lupus nephritis, and hyperlipidemic. These beneficial effects of piperlongumine is attributed to its ability to modulate several signaling molecules like reactive oxygen species, kinases, proteasome, proto-oncogenes, transcription factors, cell cycle, inflammatory molecules and cell growth and survival molecules. Piperlongumine also chemosensitizes to drugs resistant cancer cells. Overall the consumption of long peppers is therefore recommended for the prevention and treatment of various diseases including cancer, and thus piperlongumine may be a promising future candidate drug against cancer.

Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashani, A. K.

1980-01-01

Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

CRISPR in the Retina: Evaluation of Future Potential.

PubMed

Cho, Galaxy Y; Justus, Sally; Sengillo, Jesse D; Tsang, Stephen H

2017-01-01

Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) has been gaining widespread attention for its ability for targeted genome surgery. In treating inherited retinal degenerations, gene therapies have had varied results; the ones effective in restoring eye sight are limited by transiency in its effect. Genome surgery, however, is a solution that could potentially provide the eye with permanent healthy cells. As retinal degenerations are irreversible and the retina has little regenerative potential, permanent healthy cells are vital for vision. Since the retina is anatomically accessible and capable of being monitored in vivo, the retina is a prime location for novel therapies. CRISPR technology can be used to make corrections directly in vivo as well as ex vivo of stem cells for transplantation. Current standard of care includes genetic testing for causative mutations in expectation of this potential. This chapter explores future potential and strategies for retinal degenerative disease correction via CRISPR and its limitations.

Potential Futures for Information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, Mark R.

Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entiremore » populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank« less

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

PubMed Central

Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

2012-01-01

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

Identifying the Correlates and Barriers of Future Planning among Parents of Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Meghan; Arnold, Catherine; Owen, Aleksa

2018-01-01

Although individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are living longer lives, fewer than half of parents of individuals with IDD conduct future planning. The correlates and barriers to future planning must be identified to develop targeted interventions to facilitate future planning. In this study, 388 parents of individuals…

Present and future potential of plant-derived products to control arthropods of veterinary and medical significance

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The use of synthetic pesticides and repellents to target pests of veterinary and medical significance is becoming increasingly problematic. One alternative approach employs the bioactive attributes of plant-derived products (PDPs). These are particularly attractive on the grounds of low mammalian toxicity, short environmental persistence and complex chemistries that should limit development of pest resistance against them. Several pesticides and repellents based on PDPs are already available, and in some cases widely utilised, in modern pest management. Many more have a long history of traditional use in poorer areas of the globe where access to synthetic pesticides is often limited. Preliminary studies support that PDPs could be more widely used to target numerous medical and veterinary pests, with modes of action often specific to invertebrates. Though their current and future potential appears significant, development and deployment of PDPs to target veterinary and medical pests is not without issue. Variable efficacy is widely recognised as a restraint to PDPs for pest control. Identifying and developing natural bioactive PDP components in place of chemically less-stable raw or 'whole’ products seems to be the most popular solution to this problem. A limited residual activity, often due to photosensitivity or high volatility, is a further drawback in some cases (though potentially advantageous in others). Nevertheless, encapsulation technologies and other slow-release mechanisms offer strong potential to improve residual activity where needed. The current review provides a summary of existing use and future potential of PDPs against ectoparasites of veterinary and medical significance. Four main types of PDP are considered (pyrethrum, neem, essential oils and plant extracts) for their pesticidal, growth regulating and repellent or deterrent properties. An overview of existing use and research for each is provided, with direction to more extensive reviews

Where to Go Next? Identifying Target Areas in the North Atlantic for Future Seafloor Mapping Initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woelfl, A. C.; Jencks, J.; Johnston, G.; Varner, J. D.; Devey, C. W.

2017-12-01

Human activities are rapidly expanding into the oceans, yet detailed bathymetric maps do not exist for most of the seafloor that would permit governments to formulate sensible usage rules. Changing this situation will require an enormous international mapping effort. To ensure that this effort is directed towards the regions most in need of mapping, we need to know which areas have already been mapped and which areas are potentially most interesting. Despite various mapping efforts in recent years, large parts of the Atlantic still lack detailed bathymetric information. To successfully plan for future mapping efforts to fill these gaps, knowledge of current data coverage is imperative to avoid duplication of effort. While certain datasets are publically available online (e.g. NOAA's NCEI, EMODnet, IHO-DCDB, LDEO's GMRT), many are not. However, with the limited information we do have at hand, the question remains, where should we map next? And what criteria should we take into account? In 2016, a study was taken on as part of the efforts of the International Atlantic Seabed Mapping Working Group (ASMIWG). The ASMIWG, established by the Tri-Partite Galway Statement Implementation Committee, was tasked to develop a cohesive seabed mapping strategy for the Atlantic Ocean. The aim of our study was to develop a reproducible process for identifying and evaluating potential target areas within the North Atlantic that represent suitable sites for future bathymetric surveys. The sites were selected by applying a GIS-based suitability analysis that included specific user group-based parameters of the marine environment. Furthermore, information regarding current data coverage were gathered to take into account in the selection process. The results reveal the suitability of sites within the North Atlantic based on the selected criteria. Three potential target sites should be seen as flexible suggestions for future mapping initiatives rather than a rigid, defined set of areas

The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passig, David

2009-01-01

Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

Release of genetically engineered insects: a framework to identify potential ecological effects

PubMed Central

David, Aaron S; Kaser, Joe M; Morey, Amy C; Roth, Alexander M; Andow, David A

2013-01-01

Genetically engineered (GE) insects have the potential to radically change pest management worldwide. With recent approvals of GE insect releases, there is a need for a synthesized framework to evaluate their potential ecological and evolutionary effects. The effects may occur in two phases: a transitory phase when the focal population changes in density, and a steady state phase when it reaches a new, constant density. We review potential effects of a rapid change in insect density related to population outbreaks, biological control, invasive species, and other GE organisms to identify a comprehensive list of potential ecological and evolutionary effects of GE insect releases. We apply this framework to the Anopheles gambiae mosquito – a malaria vector being engineered to suppress the wild mosquito population – to identify effects that may occur during the transitory and steady state phases after release. Our methodology reveals many potential effects in each phase, perhaps most notably those dealing with immunity in the transitory phase, and with pathogen and vector evolution in the steady state phase. Importantly, this framework identifies knowledge gaps in mosquito ecology. Identifying effects in the transitory and steady state phases allows more rigorous identification of the potential ecological effects of GE insect release. PMID:24198955

Probing features in inflaton potential and reionization history with future CMB space observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Paoletti, Daniela; Ballardini, Mario; Finelli, Fabio; Shafieloo, Arman; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

2018-02-01

We consider the prospects of probing features in the primordial power spectrum with future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization measurements. In the scope of the inflationary scenario, such features in the spectrum can be produced by local non-smooth pieces in an inflaton potential (smooth and quasi-flat in general) which in turn may originate from fast phase transitions during inflation in other quantum fields interacting with the inflaton. They can fit some outliers in the CMB temperature power spectrum which are unaddressed within the standard inflationary ΛCDM model. We consider Wiggly Whipped Inflation (WWI) as a theoretical framework leading to improvements in the fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data in comparison with the standard inflationary models, although not at a statistically significant level. We show that some type of features in the potential within the WWI models, leading to oscillations in the primordial power spectrum that extend to intermediate and small scales can be constrained with high confidence (at 3σ or higher confidence level) by an instrument as the Cosmic ORigins Explorer (CORE). In order to investigate the possible confusion between inflationary features and footprints from the reionization era, we consider an extended reionization history with monotonic increase of free electrons with decrease in redshift. We discuss the present constraints on this model of extended reionization and future predictions with CORE. We also project, to what extent, this extended reionization can create confusion in identifying inflationary features in the data.

New approaches for identifying and testing potential new anti-asthma agents.

PubMed

Licari, Amelia; Castagnoli, Riccardo; Brambilla, Ilaria; Marseglia, Alessia; Tosca, Maria Angela; Marseglia, Gian Luigi; Ciprandi, Giorgio

2018-01-01

Asthma is a chronic disease with significant heterogeneity in clinical features, disease severity, pattern of underlying disease mechanisms, and responsiveness to specific treatments. While the majority of asthmatic patients are controlled by standard pharmacological strategies, a significant subgroup has limited therapeutic options representing a major unmet need. Ongoing asthma research aims to better characterize distinct clinical phenotypes, molecular endotypes, associated reliable biomarkers, and also to develop a series of new effective targeted treatment modalities. Areas covered: The expanding knowledge on the pathogenetic mechanisms of asthma has allowed researchers to investigate a range of new treatment options matched to patient profiles. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive and updated overview of the currently available, new and developing approaches for identifying and testing potential treatment options for asthma management. Expert opinion: Future therapeutic strategies for asthma require the identification of reliable biomarkers that can help with diagnosis and endotyping, in order to determine the most effective drug for the right patient phenotype. Furthermore, in addition to the identification of clinical and inflammatory phenotypes, it is expected that a better understanding of the mechanisms of airway remodeling will likely optimize asthma targeted treatment.

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

PubMed

Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

2013-08-01

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualis, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

Identifying future directions for subsurface hydrocarbon migration research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leifer, I.; Clark, J. F.; Luyendyk, B.; Valentine, D.

Subsurface hydrocarbon migration is important for understanding the input and impacts of natural hydrocarbon seepage on the environment. Great uncertainties remain in most aspects of hydrocarbon migration, including some basic mechanisms of this four-phase flow of tar, oil, water, and gas through the complex fracture-network geometry particularly since the phases span a wide range of properties. Academic, government, and industry representatives recently attended a workshop to identify the areas of greatest need for future research in shallow hydrocarbon migration.Novel approaches such as studying temporal and spatial seepage variations and analogous geofluid systems (e.g., geysers and trickle beds) allow deductions of subsurface processes and structures that remain largely unclear. Unique complexities exist in hydrocarbon migration due to its multiphase flow and complex geometry, including in-situ biological weathering. Furthermore, many aspects of the role of hydrocarbons (positive and negative) in the environment are poorly understood, including how they enter the food chain (respiration, consumption, etc.) and “percolate” to higher trophic levels. But understanding these ecological impacts requires knowledge of the emissions' temporal and spatial variability and trajectories.

Use of Event-Related Potentials to Identify Language and Reading Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molfese, Victoria J.; Molfese, Dennis L.; Beswick, Jennifer L.; Jacobi-Vessels, Jill; Molfese, Peter J.; Molnar, Andrew E.; Wagner, Mary C.; Haines, Brittany L.

2008-01-01

The extent to which oral language and emergent literacy skills are influenced by event-related potential measures of phonological processing was examined. Results revealed that event-related potential responses identify differences in letter naming but not receptive language skills.

A decision-theoretic approach to identifying future high-cost patients.

PubMed

Pietz, Kenneth; Byrne, Margaret M; Petersen, Laura A

2006-09-01

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a method of allocating funding for very-high-cost (VHC) patients among hospitals. Diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) were used for risk adjustment. The patient population consisted of 253,013 veterans who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical care services in fiscal year (FY) 2003 (October 1, 2002-September 30, 2003) in a network of 8 VA hospitals. We defined VHC as greater than 75,000 dollars (0.81%). The upper fifth percentile was also used for comparison. A Bayesian decision rule for classifying patients as VHC/not VHC using DCGs was developed and evaluated. The method uses FY 2003 DCGs to allocate VHC funds for FY 2004. We also used FY 2002 DCGs to allocate VHC funds for FY 2003 for comparison. The resulting allocation was compared with using the allocation of VHC patients among the hospitals in the previous year. The decision rule identified DCG 17 as the optimal cutoff for identifying VHC patients for the next year. The previous year's allocation came closest to the actual distribution of VHC patients. The decision-theoretic approach may provide insight into the economic consequences of classifying a patient as VHC or not VHC. More research is needed into methods of identifying future VHC patients so that capitation plans can fairly reimburse healthcare systems for appropriately treating these patients.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Geospatial analysis identifies critical mineral-resource potential in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, Susan M.; Labay, Keith A.; Jacques, Katherine; Landowski, Claire

2017-03-03

Alaska consists of more than 663,000 square miles (1,717,000 square kilometers) of land—more than a sixth of the total area of the United States—and large tracts of it have not been systematically studied or sampled for mineral-resource potential. Many regions of the State are known to have significant mineral-resource potential, and there are currently six operating mines in the State along with numerous active mineral exploration projects. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys have developed a new geospatial tool that integrates and analyzes publicly available databases of geologic information and estimates the mineral-resource potential for critical minerals, which was recently used to evaluate Alaska. The results of the analyses highlight areas that have known mineral deposits and also reveal areas that were not previously considered to be prospective for these deposit types. These results will inform land management decisions by Federal, State, and private landholders, and will also help guide future exploration activities and scientific investigations in Alaska.

Modeling connectivity to identify current and future anthropogenic barriers to movement of large carnivores: A case study in the American Southwest.

PubMed

McClure, Meredith L; Dickson, Brett G; Nicholson, Kerry L

2017-06-01

This study sought to identify critical areas for puma ( Puma concolor ) movement across the state of Arizona in the American Southwest and to identify those most likely to be impacted by current and future human land uses, particularly expanding urban development and associated increases in traffic volume. Human populations in this region are expanding rapidly, with the potential for urban centers and busy roads to increasingly act as barriers to demographic and genetic connectivity of large-bodied, wide-ranging carnivores such as pumas, whose long-distance movements are likely to bring them into contact with human land uses and whose low tolerance both for and from humans may put them at risk unless opportunities for safe passage through or around human-modified landscapes are present. Brownian bridge movement models based on global positioning system collar data collected during bouts of active movement and linear mixed models were used to model habitat quality for puma movement; then, a wall-to-wall application of circuit theory models was used to produce a continuous statewide estimate of connectivity for puma movement and to identify pinch points, or bottlenecks, that may be most at risk of impacts from current and future traffic volume and expanding development. Rugged, shrub- and scrub-dominated regions were highlighted as those offering high quality movement habitat for pumas, and pinch points with the greatest potential impacts from expanding development and traffic, although widely distributed, were particularly prominent to the north and east of the city of Phoenix and along interstate highways in the western portion of the state. These pinch points likely constitute important conservation opportunities, where barriers to movement may cause disproportionate loss of connectivity, but also where actions such as placement of wildlife crossing structures or conservation easements could enhance connectivity and prevent detrimental impacts before they occur.

Columbus future evolution potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altmann, G.; Rausch, G.; Sax, H.

degree of flexibility needed for efficient operations in space. The present assumptions made in the context of describing the future potential of the MTFF are subject to revision as further results become available from the ongoing COLUMBUS programme definition process.

Cooperative Development of the Digital Library: Identifying and Working with Potential Partners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poland, Jean

In a university environment, the library can benefit from interest in the digital future on the part of other concerned groups. Computer science departments are natural partners in the development of digital libraries. Professional societies, for-profit companies, and foundations are also potential sources of support. Cornell University Library…

Exome Sequencing Identifies Potentially Druggable Mutations in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

PubMed

Chow, Yock Ping; Tan, Lu Ping; Chai, San Jiun; Abdul Aziz, Norazlin; Choo, Siew Woh; Lim, Paul Vey Hong; Pathmanathan, Rajadurai; Mohd Kornain, Noor Kaslina; Lum, Chee Lun; Pua, Kin Choo; Yap, Yoke Yeow; Tan, Tee Yong; Teo, Soo Hwang; Khoo, Alan Soo-Beng; Patel, Vyomesh

2017-03-03

In this study, we first performed whole exome sequencing of DNA from 10 untreated and clinically annotated fresh frozen nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) biopsies and matched bloods to identify somatically mutated genes that may be amenable to targeted therapeutic strategies. We identified a total of 323 mutations which were either non-synonymous (n = 238) or synonymous (n = 85). Furthermore, our analysis revealed genes in key cancer pathways (DNA repair, cell cycle regulation, apoptosis, immune response, lipid signaling) were mutated, of which those in the lipid-signaling pathway were the most enriched. We next extended our analysis on a prioritized sub-set of 37 mutated genes plus top 5 mutated cancer genes listed in COSMIC using a custom designed HaloPlex target enrichment panel with an additional 88 NPC samples. Our analysis identified 160 additional non-synonymous mutations in 37/42 genes in 66/88 samples. Of these, 99/160 mutations within potentially druggable pathways were further selected for validation. Sanger sequencing revealed that 77/99 variants were true positives, giving an accuracy of 78%. Taken together, our study indicated that ~72% (n = 71/98) of NPC samples harbored mutations in one of the four cancer pathways (EGFR-PI3K-Akt-mTOR, NOTCH, NF-κB, DNA repair) which may be potentially useful as predictive biomarkers of response to matched targeted therapies.

Exome Sequencing Identifies Potentially Druggable Mutations in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Chow, Yock Ping; Tan, Lu Ping; Chai, San Jiun; Abdul Aziz, Norazlin; Choo, Siew Woh; Lim, Paul Vey Hong; Pathmanathan, Rajadurai; Mohd Kornain, Noor Kaslina; Lum, Chee Lun; Pua, Kin Choo; Yap, Yoke Yeow; Tan, Tee Yong; Teo, Soo Hwang; Khoo, Alan Soo-Beng; Patel, Vyomesh

2017-01-01

In this study, we first performed whole exome sequencing of DNA from 10 untreated and clinically annotated fresh frozen nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) biopsies and matched bloods to identify somatically mutated genes that may be amenable to targeted therapeutic strategies. We identified a total of 323 mutations which were either non-synonymous (n = 238) or synonymous (n = 85). Furthermore, our analysis revealed genes in key cancer pathways (DNA repair, cell cycle regulation, apoptosis, immune response, lipid signaling) were mutated, of which those in the lipid-signaling pathway were the most enriched. We next extended our analysis on a prioritized sub-set of 37 mutated genes plus top 5 mutated cancer genes listed in COSMIC using a custom designed HaloPlex target enrichment panel with an additional 88 NPC samples. Our analysis identified 160 additional non-synonymous mutations in 37/42 genes in 66/88 samples. Of these, 99/160 mutations within potentially druggable pathways were further selected for validation. Sanger sequencing revealed that 77/99 variants were true positives, giving an accuracy of 78%. Taken together, our study indicated that ~72% (n = 71/98) of NPC samples harbored mutations in one of the four cancer pathways (EGFR-PI3K-Akt-mTOR, NOTCH, NF-κB, DNA repair) which may be potentially useful as predictive biomarkers of response to matched targeted therapies. PMID:28256603

Potential Coastal Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage Locations Identified using GIS-based Topographic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, R.; Barnhart, C. J.; Benson, S. M.

2013-12-01

Large-scale electrical energy storage could accommodate variable, weather dependent energy resources such as wind and solar. Pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHS) and compressed energy storage area (CAES) have life cycle energy and financial costs that are an order of magnitude lower than conventional electrochemical storage technologies. However PHS and CAES storage technologies require specific geologic conditions. Conventional PHS requires an upper and lower reservoir separated by at least 100 m of head, but no more than 10 km in horizontal distance. Conventional PHS also impacts fresh water supplies, riparian ecosystems, and hydrologic environments. A PHS facility that uses the ocean as the lower reservoir benefits from a smaller footprint, minimal freshwater impact, and the potential to be located near off shore wind resources and population centers. Although technologically nascent, today one coastal PHS facility exists. The storage potential for coastal PHS is unknown. Can coastal PHS play a significant role in augmenting future power grids with a high faction of renewable energy supply? In this study we employ GIS-based topographic analysis to quantify the coastal PHS potential of several geographic locations, including California, Chile and Peru. We developed automated techniques that seek local topographic minima in 90 m spatial resolution shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation models (DEM) that satisfy the following criteria conducive to PHS: within 10 km from the sea; minimum elevation 150 m; maximum elevation 1000 m. Preliminary results suggest the global potential for coastal PHS could be very significant. For example, in northern Chile we have identified over 60 locations that satisfy the above criteria. Two of these locations could store over 10 million cubic meters of water or several GWh of energy. We plan to report a global database of candidate coastal PHS locations and to estimate their energy storage capacity.

Identifying the Correlates and Barriers of Future Planning Among Parents of Individuals With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Burke, Meghan; Arnold, Catherine; Owen, Aleksa

2018-04-01

Although individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are living longer lives, fewer than half of parents of individuals with IDD conduct future planning. The correlates and barriers to future planning must be identified to develop targeted interventions to facilitate future planning. In this study, 388 parents of individuals with IDD responded to a national, web-based survey. Participants who were older, more educated, attended more parent training and support activities, and had children with fewer functional abilities, were more likely to engage in future planning. Reported barriers to future planning included: (a) lack of available services, (b) financial challenges, (c) reluctance of family members, (d) lack of time, (e) the emotional nature of future planning, (f) inertia, and (g) a lack of family members to be caregivers. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.

Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-11-01

The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

Using a watershed-centric approach to identify potentially impacted beaches

EPA Science Inventory

Beaches can be affected by a variety of contaminants. Of particular concern are beaches impacted by human fecal contamination and urban runoff. This poster demonstrates a methodology to identify potentially impacted beaches using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since h...

Development of computational fluid dynamics--habitat suitability (CFD-HSI) models to identify potential passage--Challenge zones for migratory fishes in the Penobscot River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haro, Alexander J.; Dudley, Robert W.; Chelminski, Michael

2012-01-01

A two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-habitat suitability (CFD–HSI) model was developed to identify potential zones of shallow depth and high water velocity that may present passage challenges for five anadromous fish species in the Penobscot River, Maine, upstream from two existing dams and as a result of the proposed future removal of the dams. Potential depth-challenge zones were predicted for larger species at the lowest flow modeled in the dam-removal scenario. Increasing flows under both scenarios increased the number and size of potential velocity-challenge zones, especially for smaller species. This application of the two-dimensional CFD–HSI model demonstrated its capabilities to estimate the potential effects of flow and hydraulic alteration on the passage of migratory fish.

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

Radio Detection of Cosmic Rays-Achievements and Future Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huege, Tim

When modern efforts for radio detection of cosmic rays started about a decade ago, hopes were high but the true potential was unknown. Since then, we have achieved a detailed understanding of the radio emission physics and have consequently succeeded in developing sophisticated detection schemes and analysis approaches. In particular, we have demonstrated that the important air-shower parameters arrival direction, particle energy and depth of shower maximum can be reconstructed reliably from radio measurements, with a precision that is comparable with that of other detection techniques. At the same time, limitations inherent to the radio-emission mechanisms have become apparent. In this article, I shortly review the capabilities of radio detection in the very high-frequency band, and discuss the potential for future application in existing and new experiments for cosmic-ray detection.

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope < 5°) of the current glacier surface based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. The same input data are used on the second level for a manual detection of overdeepenings, which are expected at locations where the following three criteria apply: (a) A distinct increase of the glacier surface slope in down-glacier direction; (b) an enlarged width followed by a narrow glacier part; and (c) regions with compressive flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple

Technology Needs to Support Future Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nilsen, Erik N.; Baker, John; Lillard, Randolph P.

2013-01-01

The Mars Program Planning Group (MPPG) under the direction of Dr. Orlando Figueroa, was chartered to develop options for a program-level architecture for robotic exploration of Mars consistent with the objective to send humans to Mars in the 2030's. Scientific pathways were defined for future exploration, and multiple architectural options were developed that meet current science goals and support the future human exploration objectives. Integral to the process was the identification of critical technologies which enable the future scientific and human exploration goals. This paper describes the process for technology capabilities identification and examines the critical capability needs identified in the MPPG process. Several critical enabling technologies that have been identified to support the robotic exploration goals and with potential feedforward application to human exploration goals. Potential roadmaps for the development and validation of these technologies are discussed, including options for subscale technology demonstrations of future human exploration technologies on robotic missions.

Identifying future scientists: predicting persistence into research training.

PubMed

McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L

2007-01-01

This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8-12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers.

The Emergence of Environmental Health Literacy—From Its Roots to Its Future Potential

PubMed Central

Finn, Symma; O’Fallon, Liam

2015-01-01

Background: Environmental health literacy (EHL) is coalescing into a new subdiscipline that combines key principles and procedural elements from the fields of risk communication, health literacy, environmental health sciences (EHS), communications research, and safety culture. These disciplines have contributed unique expertise and perspectives to the development of EHL. Since 1992, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) has contributed to the evolution of EHL and now seeks to stimulate its scientific advancement and rigor. Objectives: The principal objective of this article is to stimulate a conversation on, and advance research in, EHL. Discussion: In this article, we propose a definition of and conceptual framework for EHL, describe EHL in its social and historical context, identify the complementary fields and domains where EHL is being defined and implemented, and outline a research agenda. Extensive reviews of web and literature searches indicate that the concept of EHL is evolving rapidly, as are the definitions of its scope and inquiry. Although several authors have outlined different frameworks, we believe that a more nuanced model based on Bloom’s taxonomy is better suited to EHL and to future research in this area. Conclusions: We posit that EHL can potentially benefit the conduct and outcomes of community-engaged and health disparities EHS research and can ensure that the translation of research findings will lead to greater understanding of specific risks, reduction of exposures, and improvement of health outcomes for individuals and communities. We provide four recommendations to advance work in EHL. Citation: Finn S, O’Fallon L. 2017. The emergence of environmental health literacy—from its roots to its future potential. Environ Health Perspect 125:495–501; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409337 PMID:26126293

Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2014-05-01

Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

Identifying and naming plant-pathogenic fungi: past, present, and future.

PubMed

Crous, Pedro W; Hawksworth, David L; Wingfield, Michael J

2015-01-01

Scientific names are crucial in communicating knowledge about fungi. In plant pathology, they link information regarding the biology, host range, distribution, and potential risk. Our understanding of fungal biodiversity and fungal systematics has undergone an exponential leap, incorporating genomics, web-based systems, and DNA data for rapid identification to link species to metadata. The impact of our ability to recognize hitherto unknown organisms on plant pathology and trade is enormous and continues to grow. Major challenges for phytomycology are intertwined with the Genera of Fungi project, which adds DNA barcodes to known biodiversity and corrects the application of old, established names via epi- or neotypification. Implementing the one fungus-one name system and linking names to validated type specimens, cultures, and reference sequences will provide the foundation on which the future of plant pathology and the communication of names of plant pathogens will rest.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

Discovering Potential Pathogens among Fungi Identified as Nonsporulating Molds▿

PubMed Central

Pounder, June I.; Simmon, Keith E.; Barton, Claudia A.; Hohmann, Sheri L.; Brandt, Mary E.; Petti, Cathy A.

2007-01-01

Fungal infections are increasing, particularly among immunocompromised hosts, and a rapid diagnosis is essential to initiate antifungal therapy. Often fungi cannot be identified by conventional methods and are classified as nonsporulating molds (NSM).We sequenced internal transcribed spacer regions from 50 cultures of NSM and found 16 potential pathogens that can be associated with clinical disease. In selected clinical settings, identification of NSM could prove valuable and have an immediate impact on patient management. PMID:17135442

Mesenchymal stem cell therapy in cats: Current knowledge and future potential.

PubMed

Quimby, Jessica M; Borjesson, Dori L

2018-03-01

Practical relevance: Stem cell therapy is an innovative field of scientific investigation with tremendous potential for clinical application in veterinary medicine. Based on the known desirable immunomodulatory properties of mesenchymal stem cells, this therapy holds promise for the treatment of a variety of inflammatory diseases in cats. This review details our current understanding of feline stem cell biology and proposed mechanism of action. Studies performed in feline clinical trials for diseases including gingivostomatitis, chronic enteropathy, asthma and kidney disease are summarized, with the goal of providing an overview of the current status of this treatment modality and its potential for the future.

Identifying ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray accelerators with future ultrahigh-energy neutrino detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ke; Kotera, Kumiko; Miller, M. Coleman; Murase, Kohta; Oikonomou, Foteini

2016-12-01

The detection of ultrahigh-energy (UHE) neutrino sources would contribute significantly to solving the decades-old mystery of the origin of the highest-energy cosmic rays. We investigate the ability of a future UHE neutrino detector to identify the brightest neutrino point sources, by exploring the parameter space of the total number of observed events and the angular resolution of the detector. The favored parameter region can be translated to requirements for the effective area, sky coverage and angular resolution of future detectors, for a given source number density and evolution history. Moreover, by studying the typical distance to sources that are expected to emit more than one event for a given diffuse neutrino flux, we find that a significant fraction of the identifiable UHE neutrino sources may be located in the nearby Universe if the source number density is above ~10-6 Mpc-3. If sources are powerful and rare enough, as predicted in blazar scenarios, they can first be detected at distant locations. Our result also suggests that if UHE cosmic-ray accelerators are neither beamed nor transients, it will be possible to associate the detected UHE neutrino sources with nearby UHE cosmic-ray and gamma-ray sources, and that they may also be observed using other messengers, including ones with limited horizons such as TeV gamma rays, UHE gamma rays and cosmic rays. We find that for a gtrsim5σ detection of UHE neutrino sources with a uniform density, ns~10-7-10-5 Mpc-3, at least ~100-1000 events and sub-degree angular resolution are needed, and the results depend on the source evolution model.

Perception of students' intelligence malleability and potential for future success: Unfavourable beliefs towards girls.

PubMed

Verniers, Catherine; Martinot, Delphine

2015-09-01

Endorsing an entity theory of intelligence has negative effects on students' academic trajectories. Research focused on students' personal theories of intelligence has shown that girls are more likely than boys to hold an entity theory of intelligence. However, no study has examined the possibility of a gender stereotype basis for this belief. We examined whether secondary school students are knowledgeable about others' beliefs describing female students' intelligence as less malleable than male students' intelligence. A sample of 85 French ninth graders were asked to rate to what extent others perceived: (1) female or male students' intelligence as malleable and fixed; (2) female or male students as making efforts for their current achievement; and (3) female or male students as having potential for future success. Participants reported that others perceived girls' intelligence as less malleable than boys' intelligence. Moreover, the relationship between current efforts and potential for future achievement depended on the target's gender. The more hardworking a female student was perceived to be in school, the less she was considered to have potential to succeed in the future, whereas such a link was not observed for a male student. Secondary school students seem to be knowledgeable about a gender stereotype regarding intelligence and potential for academic success which is unfavourable for female students. Implications for students' academic trajectories are discussed. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Proteomics-based approach identified differentially expressed proteins with potential roles in endometrial carcinoma.

PubMed

Li, Zhengyu; Min, Wenjiao; Huang, Canhua; Bai, Shujun; Tang, Minghai; Zhao, Xia

2010-01-01

We used proteomic approaches to identify altered expressed proteins in endometrial carcinoma, with the aim of discovering potential biomarkers or therapeutic targets for endometrial carcinoma. The global proteins extracted from endometrial carcinoma and normal endometrial tissues were separated by 2-dimensional electrophoresis and analyzed with PDQuest (Bio-Rad, Hercules, Calif) software. The differentially expressed spots were identified by mass spectrometry and searched against NCBInr protein database. Those proteins with potential roles were confirmed by Western blotting and immunohistochemical assays. Ninety-nine proteins were identified by mass spectrometry, and a cluster diagram analysis indicated that these proteins were involved in metabolism, cell transformation, protein folding, translation and modification, proliferation and apoptosis, signal transduction, cytoskeleton, and so on. In confirmatory immunoblotting and immunohistochemical analyses, overexpressions of epidermal fatty acid-binding protein, calcyphosine, and cyclophilin A were also observed in endometrial carcinoma tissues, which were consistent with the proteomic results. Our results suggested that these identified proteins, including epidermal fatty acid-binding protein, calcyphosine, and cyclophilin A, might be of potential values in the studies of endometrial carcinogenesis or investigations of diagnostic biomarkers or treatment targets for endometrial carcinoma.

Exome sequencing of a large family identifies potential candidate genes contributing risk to bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianxiao; Hou, Liping; Chen, David T; McMahon, Francis J; Wang, Jen-Chyong; Rice, John P

2018-03-01

Bipolar disorder is a mental illness with lifetime prevalence of about 1%. Previous genetic studies have identified multiple chromosomal linkage regions and candidate genes that might be associated with bipolar disorder. The present study aimed to identify potential susceptibility variants for bipolar disorder using 6 related case samples from a four-generation family. A combination of exome sequencing and linkage analysis was performed to identify potential susceptibility variants for bipolar disorder. Our study identified a list of five potential candidate genes for bipolar disorder. Among these five genes, GRID1(Glutamate Receptor Delta-1 Subunit), which was previously reported to be associated with several psychiatric disorders and brain related traits, is particularly interesting. Variants with functional significance in this gene were identified from two cousins in our bipolar disorder pedigree. Our findings suggest a potential role for these genes and the related rare variants in the onset and development of bipolar disorder in this one family. Additional research is needed to replicate these findings and evaluate their patho-biological significance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An automated technique to identify potential inappropriate traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) prescriptions.

PubMed

Yang, Hsuan-Chia; Iqbal, Usman; Nguyen, Phung Anh; Lin, Shen-Hsien; Huang, Chih-Wei; Jian, Wen-Shan; Li, Yu-Chuan

2016-04-01

Medication errors such as potential inappropriate prescriptions would induce serious adverse drug events to patients. Information technology has the ability to prevent medication errors; however, the pharmacology of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is not as clear as in western medicine. The aim of this study was to apply the appropriateness of prescription (AOP) model to identify potential inappropriate TCM prescriptions. We used the association rule of mining techniques to analyze 14.5 million prescriptions from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The disease and TCM (DTCM) and traditional Chinese medicine-traditional Chinese medicine (TCMM) associations are computed by their co-occurrence, and the associations' strength was measured as Q-values, which often referred to as interestingness or life values. By considering the number of Q-values, the AOP model was applied to identify the inappropriate prescriptions. Afterwards, three traditional Chinese physicians evaluated 1920 prescriptions and validated the detected outcomes from the AOP model. Out of 1920 prescriptions, 97.1% of positive predictive value and 19.5% of negative predictive value were shown by the system as compared with those by experts. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the negative predictive value could improve up to 27.5% when the model's threshold changed to 0.4. We successfully applied the AOP model to automatically identify potential inappropriate TCM prescriptions. This model could be a potential TCM clinical decision support system in order to improve drug safety and quality of care. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

Hot spot analysis applied to identify ecosystem services potential in Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Paulo; Depellegrin, Daniel; Misiune, Ieva

2016-04-01

Hot spot analysis are very useful to identify areas with similar characteristics. This is important for a sustainable use of the territory, since we can identify areas that need to be protected, or restored. This is a great advantage in terms of land use planning and management, since we can allocate resources, reduce the economical costs and do a better intervention in the landscape. Ecosystem services (ES) are different according land use. Since landscape is very heterogeneous, it is of major importance understand their spatial pattern and where are located the areas that provide better ES and the others that provide less services. The objective of this work is to use hot-spot analysis to identify areas with the most valuable ES in Lithuania. CORINE land-cover (CLC) of 2006 was used as the main spatial information. This classification uses a grid of 100 m resolution and extracted a total of 31 land use types. ES ranking was carried out based on expert knowledge. They were asked to evaluate the ES potential of each different CLC from 0 (no potential) to 5 (very high potential). Hot spot analysis were evaluated using the Getis-ord test, which identifies cluster analysis available in ArcGIS toolbox. This tool identifies areas with significantly high low values and significant high values at a p level of 0.05. In this work we used hot spot analysis to assess the distribution of providing, regulating cultural and total (sum of the previous 3) ES. The Z value calculated from Getis-ord was used to statistical analysis to access the clusters of providing, regulating cultural and total ES. ES with high Z value show that they have a high number of cluster areas with high potential of ES. The results showed that the Z-score was significantly different among services (Kruskal Wallis ANOVA =834. 607, p<0.001). The Z score of providing services (0.096±2.239) were significantly higher than the total (0.093±2.045), cultural (0.080±1.979) and regulating (0.076±1.961). These

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: identifying high priority future research needs.

PubMed

Gaynes, Bradley N; Christian, Robert; Saavedra, Lissette M; Wines, Roberta; Jonas, Daniel E; Viswanathan, Meera; Ellis, Alan R; Woodell, Carol; Carey, Timothy S

2014-03-01

With onset often occurring before 6 years of age, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) involves attention problems, impulsivity, overactivity, and sometimes disruptive behavior. Impairment usually persists into adulthood, with an estimated worldwide prevalence in adults of 2.5%. Existing gaps in evidence concerning ADHD hinder decision-making about treatment. This article describes and prioritizes future research needs for ADHD in three areas: treatment effectiveness for at-risk preschoolers; long-term treatment effectiveness; and variability in prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment.Using a recent systematic review concerning ADHD completed by a different evidence-based practice center as a foundation, we worked with a diverse group of 12 stakeholders, who represented researchers, funders, healthcare providers, patients, and families, to identify and prioritize research needs. From an initial list of 29 evidence gaps, we enumerated 8 high-priority research needs: a) accurate, brief standardized diagnosis and assessment; b) comparative effectiveness and safety of pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; c) comparative effectiveness of different combinations of psychosocial and pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; d) case identification and measurement of prevalence and outcomes; e) comparative effectiveness of psychosocial treatment alone versus pharmacologic and combination treatments for children under 6 years of age; f) comparative long-term treatment effectiveness for people 6 years of age and older; g) relative efficacy of specific psychosocial program components for children under 6 years of age; and h) identification of person-level effect modifiers for people 6 years of age and older. In this article, we describe these future research needs in detail and discuss study designs that could be used to address them.

'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

2017-04-01

A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

Identifying potential impact of lead contamination using a geographic information system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bocco, G.; Sanchez, R.

1997-01-01

The main objective of this research was to identify the potential hazards associated with lead contamination from fixed sources in the city of Tijuana. An exploratory model is presented that describes the potential polluting sources as well as the exposed universe. The results of the analysis provide a clear picture of the geographic distribution of hazards areas for potential lead pollution in Tijuana. The findings are indicative of the dramatic consequences of rapid industrialization and urbanization in a city where there have not been significant planning efforts to mitigate the negative effects of this growth. The approach followed helps tomore » narrow the universe of potential pollution sources, which can help to direct attention, research priorities, and resources to the most critical areas. 16 refs.« less

The Importance of Returned Martian Samples for Constraining Potential Hazards to Future Human Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

iMOST Team; Harrington, A. D.; Carrier, B. L.; Fernandez-Remolar, D. C.; Fogarty, J.; McCoy, J. T.; Rucker, M. A.; Spry, J. A.; Altieri, F.; Amelin, Y.; Ammannito, E.; Anand, M.; Beaty, D. W.; Benning, L. G.; Bishop, J. L.; Borg, L. E.; Boucher, D.; Brucato, J. R.; Busemann, H.; Campbell, K. A.; Czaja, A. D.; Debaille, V.; Des Marais, D. J.; Dixon, M.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Farmer, J. D.; Glavin, D. P.; Goreva, Y. S.; Grady, M. M.; Hallis, L. J.; Hausrath, E. M.; Herd, C. D. K.; Horgan, B.; Humayun, M.; Kleine, T.; Kleinhenz, J.; Mangold, N.; Mackelprang, R.; Mayhew, L. E.; McCubbin, F. M.; McLennan, S. M.; McSween, H. Y.; Moser, D. E.; Moynier, F.; Mustard, J. F.; Niles, P. B.; Ori, G. G.; Raulin, F.; Rettberg, P.; Schmitz, N.; Sefton-Nash, E.; Sephton, M. A.; Shaheen, R.; Shuster, D. L.; Siljestrom, S.; Smith, C. L.; Steele, A.; Swindle, T. D.; ten Kate, I. L.; Tosca, N. J.; Usui, T.; Van Kranendonk, M. J.; Wadhwa, M.; Weiss, B. P.; Werner, S. C.; Westall, F.; Wheeler, R. M.; Zipfel, J.; Zorzano, M. P.

2018-04-01

Thorough characterization and evaluation of returned martian regolith and airfall samples are critical to understanding the potential health and engineering system hazards during future human exploration.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

2016-01-01

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

PubMed

Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-11-01

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

PubMed Central

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-01-01

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

PubMed

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Identifying ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray accelerators with future ultrahigh-energy neutrino detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Ke; Miller, M. Coleman; Kotera, Kumiko

2016-12-01

The detection of ultrahigh-energy (UHE) neutrino sources would contribute significantly to solving the decades-old mystery of the origin of the highest-energy cosmic rays. We investigate the ability of a future UHE neutrino detector to identify the brightest neutrino point sources, by exploring the parameter space of the total number of observed events and the angular resolution of the detector. The favored parameter region can be translated to requirements for the effective area, sky coverage and angular resolution of future detectors, for a given source number density and evolution history. Moreover, by studying the typical distance to sources that are expectedmore » to emit more than one event for a given diffuse neutrino flux, we find that a significant fraction of the identifiable UHE neutrino sources may be located in the nearby Universe if the source number density is above ∼10{sup −6} Mpc{sup −3}. If sources are powerful and rare enough, as predicted in blazar scenarios, they can first be detected at distant locations. Our result also suggests that if UHE cosmic-ray accelerators are neither beamed nor transients, it will be possible to associate the detected UHE neutrino sources with nearby UHE cosmic-ray and gamma-ray sources, and that they may also be observed using other messengers, including ones with limited horizons such as TeV gamma rays, UHE gamma rays and cosmic rays. We find that for a ∼>5σ detection of UHE neutrino sources with a uniform density, n {sub s} {sub ∼}10{sup −7}−10{sup −5} Mpc{sup −3}, at least ∼100−1000 events and sub-degree angular resolution are needed, and the results depend on the source evolution model.« less

Spontaneous swallowing frequency has potential to identify dysphagia in acute stroke.

PubMed

Crary, Michael A; Carnaby, Giselle D; Sia, Isaac; Khanna, Anna; Waters, Michael F

2013-12-01

Spontaneous swallowing frequency has been described as an index of dysphagia in various health conditions. This study evaluated the potential of spontaneous swallow frequency analysis as a screening protocol for dysphagia in acute stroke. In a cohort of 63 acute stroke cases, swallow frequency rates (swallows per minute [SPM]) were compared with stroke and swallow severity indices, age, time from stroke to assessment, and consciousness level. Mean differences in SPM were compared between patients with versus without clinically significant dysphagia. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to identify the optimal threshold in SPM, which was compared with a validated clinical dysphagia examination for identification of dysphagia cases. Time series analysis was used to identify the minimally adequate time period to complete spontaneous swallow frequency analysis. SPM correlated significantly with stroke and swallow severity indices but not with age, time from stroke onset, or consciousness level. Patients with dysphagia demonstrated significantly lower SPM rates. SPM differed by dysphagia severity. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis yielded a threshold of SPM≤0.40 that identified dysphagia (per the criterion referent) with 0.96 sensitivity, 0.68 specificity, and 0.96 negative predictive value. Time series analysis indicated that a 5- to 10-minute sampling window was sufficient to calculate spontaneous swallow frequency to identify dysphagia cases in acute stroke. Spontaneous swallowing frequency presents high potential to screen for dysphagia in acute stroke without the need for trained, available personnel.

Spontaneous Swallowing Frequency [Has Potential to] Identify Dysphagia in Acute Stroke

PubMed Central

Carnaby, Giselle D; Sia, Isaac; Khanna, Anna; Waters, Michael

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Spontaneous swallowing frequency has been described as an index of dysphagia in various health conditions. This study evaluated the potential of spontaneous swallow frequency analysis as a screening protocol for dysphagia in acute stroke. Methods In a cohort of 63 acute stroke cases swallow frequency rates (swallows per minute: SPM) were compared to stroke and swallow severity indices, age, time from stroke to assessment, and consciousness level. Mean differences in SPM were compared between patients with vs. without clinically significant dysphagia. ROC analysis was used to identify the optimal threshold in SPM which was compared to a validated clinical dysphagia examination for identification of dysphagia cases. Time series analysis was employed to identify the minimally adequate time period to complete spontaneous swallow frequency analysis. Results SPM correlated significantly with stroke and swallow severity indices but not with age, time from stroke onset, or consciousness level. Patients with dysphagia demonstrated significantly lower SPM rates. SPM differed by dysphagia severity. ROC analysis yielded a threshold of SPM ≤ 0.40 which identified dysphagia (per the criterion referent) with 0.96 sensitivity, 0.68 specificity, and 0.96 negative predictive value. Time series analysis indicated that a 5 to 10 minute sampling window was sufficient to calculate spontaneous swallow frequency to identify dysphagia cases in acute stroke. Conclusions Spontaneous swallowing frequency presents high potential to screen for dysphagia in acute stroke without the need for trained, available personnel. PMID:24149008

Identifying Potential Norovirus Epidemics in China via Internet Surveillance

PubMed Central

Chen, Bin; Jiang, Tao; Cai, Gaofeng; Jiang, Zhenggang; Chen, Yongdi; Wang, Zhengting; Gu, Hua; Chai, Chengliang

2017-01-01

Background Norovirus is a common virus that causes acute gastroenteritis worldwide, but a monitoring system for norovirus is unavailable in China. Objective We aimed to identify norovirus epidemics through Internet surveillance and construct an appropriate model to predict potential norovirus infections. Methods The norovirus-related data of a selected outbreak in Jiaxing Municipality, Zhejiang Province of China, in 2014 were collected from immediate epidemiological investigation, and the Internet search volume, as indicated by the Baidu Index, was acquired from the Baidu search engine. All correlated search keywords in relation to norovirus were captured, screened, and composited to establish the composite Baidu Index at different time lags by Spearman rank correlation. The optimal model was chosen and possibly predicted maps in Zhejiang Province were presented by ArcGIS software. Results The combination of two vital keywords at a time lag of 1 day was ultimately identified as optimal (ρ=.924, P<.001). The exponential curve model was constructed to fit the trend of this epidemic, suggesting that a one-unit increase in the mean composite Baidu Index contributed to an increase of norovirus infections by 2.15 times during the outbreak. In addition to Jiaxing Municipality, Hangzhou Municipality might have had some potential epidemics in the study time from the predicted model. Conclusions Although there are limitations with early warning and unavoidable biases, Internet surveillance may be still useful for the monitoring of norovirus epidemics when a monitoring system is unavailable. PMID:28790023

NASA advanced space photovoltaic technology-status, potential and future mission applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flood, Dennis J.; Piszczor, Michael, Jr.; Stella, Paul M.; Bennett, Gary L.

1989-01-01

The NASA program in space photovoltaic research and development encompasses a wide range of emerging options for future space power systems, and includes both cell and array technology development. The long range goals are to develop technology capable of achieving 300 W/kg for planar arrays, and 300 W/sq m for concentrator arrays. InP and GaAs planar and concentrator cell technologies are under investigation for their potential high efficiency and good radiation resistance. The Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) program is a near term effort aimed at demonstrating 130 W/kg beginning of life specific power using thin (62 micrometer) silicon cells. It is intended to be technology transparent to future high efficiency cells and provides the baseline for development of the 300 W/kg array.

ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract
Speakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Treesearch

George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

2015-01-01

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

Using Social Media Data to Identify Potential Candidates for Drug Repurposing: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Rastegar-Mojarad, Majid; Liu, Hongfang; Nambisan, Priya

2016-06-16

Drug repurposing (defined as discovering new indications for existing drugs) could play a significant role in drug development, especially considering the declining success rates of developing novel drugs. Typically, new indications for existing medications are identified by accident. However, new technologies and a large number of available resources enable the development of systematic approaches to identify and validate drug-repurposing candidates. Patients today report their experiences with medications on social media and reveal side effects as well as beneficial effects of those medications. Our aim was to assess the feasibility of using patient reviews from social media to identify potential candidates for drug repurposing. We retrieved patient reviews of 180 medications from an online forum, WebMD. Using dictionary-based and machine learning approaches, we identified disease names in the reviews. Several publicly available resources were used to exclude comments containing known indications and adverse drug effects. After manually reviewing some of the remaining comments, we implemented a rule-based system to identify beneficial effects. The dictionary-based system and machine learning system identified 2178 and 6171 disease names respectively in 64,616 patient comments. We provided a list of 10 common patterns that patients used to report any beneficial effects or uses of medication. After manually reviewing the comments tagged by our rule-based system, we identified five potential drug repurposing candidates. To our knowledge, this is the first study to consider using social media data to identify drug-repurposing candidates. We found that even a rule-based system, with a limited number of rules, could identify beneficial effect mentions in patient comments. Our preliminary study shows that social media has the potential to be used in drug repurposing.

The Future Potential of Wave Power in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Previsic, M.; Epler, J.; Hand, M.; Heimiller, D.; Short, W.; Eurek, K.

2012-12-01

The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the US, is located in close proximity of coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As renewable electricity generation technologies, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the US electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses: (1) The energy extraction potential from the US wave energy resource, (2) The present cost of wave technology in /kW, (3) The estimated cost of energy in /kWh, and (4) Cost levels at which the technology should see significant deployment. RE Vision Consulting in collaboration with NREL engaged in various analyses to establish present-day and future cost profiles for MHK technologies, compiled existing resource assessments and wave energy supply curves, and developed cost and deployment scenarios using the ReEDS analysis model to estimate the present-day technology cost reductions necessary to facilitate significant technology deployment in the US.

Present and Potential Future Distribution of Common Vampire Bats in the Americas and the Associated Risk to Cattle

PubMed Central

Lee, Dana N.; Papeş, Monica; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate ‘temperature seasonality.’ Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus. PMID:22900023

Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.

PubMed

Lee, Dana N; Papeş, Monica; Van den Bussche, Ronald A

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate 'temperature seasonality.' Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.

Identifying High Academic Potential in Australian Aboriginal Children Using Dynamic Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaffey, Graham W.; Bailey, Stan B.; Vine, Ken W.

2015-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of dynamic testing as a method for identifying high academic potential in Australian Aboriginal children. The 79 participating Aboriginal children were drawn from Years 3-5 in rural schools in northern New South Wales. The dynamic testing method used in this study involved a…

Identifying therapeutic targets in gastric cancer: the current status and future direction

PubMed Central

Yu, Beiqin; Xie, Jingwu

2016-01-01

Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Our basic understanding of gastric cancer biology falls behind that of many other cancer types. Current standard treatment options for gastric cancer have not changed for the last 20 years. Thus, there is an urgent need to establish novel strategies to treat this deadly cancer. Successful clinical trials with Gleevec in CML and gastrointestinal stromal tumors have set up an example for targeted therapy of cancer. In this review, we will summarize major progress in classification, therapeutic options of gastric cancer. We will also discuss molecular mechanisms for drug resistance in gastric cancer. In addition, we will attempt to propose potential future directions in gastric cancer biology and drug targets. PMID:26373844

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.; Linsbauer, A.; Huggel, C.; Paul, F.

2010-02-01

In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2015-01-01

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Using Click Chemistry to Identify Potential Drug Targets in Plasmodium

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

step of the Plasmodium mammalian cycle . Inhibiting this step can block malaria at an early step. However, few anti-malarials target liver infection...points in the life cycle of malaria parasites. PLoS Biol 12: e1001806. 2. Falae A, Combe A, Amaladoss A, Carvalho T, Menard R, et al. (2010) Role of...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0429 TITLE: Using "Click Chemistry" to Identify Potential Drug Targets in Plasmodium PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Dr. Purnima

Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

2017-01-01

The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

Identifying Potential Mechanisms Enabling Acidophily in the Ammonia-Oxidizing Archaeon "Candidatus Nitrosotalea devanaterra".

PubMed

Lehtovirta-Morley, Laura E; Sayavedra-Soto, Luis A; Gallois, Nicolas; Schouten, Stefan; Stein, Lisa Y; Prosser, James I; Nicol, Graeme W

2016-05-01

Ammonia oxidation is the first and rate-limiting step in nitrification and is dominated by two distinct groups of microorganisms in soil: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB). AOA are often more abundant than AOB and dominate activity in acid soils. The mechanism of ammonia oxidation under acidic conditions has been a long-standing paradox. While high rates of ammonia oxidation are frequently measured in acid soils, cultivated ammonia oxidizers grew only at near-neutral pH when grown in standard laboratory culture. Although a number of mechanisms have been demonstrated to enable neutrophilic AOB growth at low pH in the laboratory, these have not been demonstrated in soil, and the recent cultivation of the obligately acidophilic ammonia oxidizer "Candidatus Nitrosotalea devanaterra" provides a more parsimonious explanation for the observed high rates of activity. Analysis of the sequenced genome, transcriptional activity, and lipid content of "Ca Nitrosotalea devanaterra" reveals that previously proposed mechanisms used by AOB for growth at low pH are not essential for archaeal ammonia oxidation in acidic environments. Instead, the genome indicates that "Ca Nitrosotalea devanaterra" contains genes encoding both a predicted high-affinity substrate acquisition system and potential pH homeostasis mechanisms absent in neutrophilic AOA. Analysis of mRNA revealed that candidate genes encoding the proposed homeostasis mechanisms were all expressed during acidophilic growth, and lipid profiling by high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) demonstrated that the membrane lipids of "Ca Nitrosotalea devanaterra" were not dominated by crenarchaeol, as found in neutrophilic AOA. This study for the first time describes a genome of an obligately acidophilic ammonia oxidizer and identifies potential mechanisms enabling this unique phenotype for future biochemical characterization. Copyright © 2016 Lehtovirta-Morley et al.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and

Formative research to identify perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students: Implications for future health communication campaigns

PubMed Central

Case, Kathleen; Crook, Brittani; Lazard, Allison; Mackert, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective This formative study examined perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students with the goal of informing future health communication campaigns. Differences between e-cigarette users and nonusers were also examined. Participants: Thirty undergraduate students were recruited from a large southwestern public university (15 users, 15 nonusers). Methods Structured interviews were conducted and transcripts were coded for themes. Results Although users had more favorable attitudes toward e-cigarettes, both users and nonusers believed that e-cigarettes produce water vapor and reported that e-cigarettes were less harmful than conventional cigarettes. Potential health consequences and addiction concerns were the most common perceived threats for both users and nonusers. Both nonusers and users cited social stigma as a perceived disadvantage of e-cigarette use. Conclusions Ultimately, themes with particular relevance to future health communication campaigns included negative perceptions of e-cigarette users and social stigma, as well as harm perceptions and potential health consequences associated with e-cigarette use. PMID:26979833

Formative research to identify perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students: Implications for future health communication campaigns.

PubMed

Case, Kathleen; Crook, Brittani; Lazard, Allison; Mackert, Michael

2016-07-01

This formative study examined perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students with the goal of informing future health communication campaigns. Differences between e-cigarette users and nonusers were also examined. Thirty undergraduate students were recruited from a large southwestern public university (15 users, 15 nonusers). Structured interviews were conducted and transcripts were coded for themes. Although users had more favorable attitudes toward e-cigarettes, both users and nonusers believed that e-cigarettes produce water vapor and reported that e-cigarettes were less harmful than conventional cigarettes. Potential health consequences and addiction concerns were the most common perceived threats for both users and nonusers. Both nonusers and users cited social stigma as a perceived disadvantage of e-cigarette use. Ultimately, themes with particular relevance to future health communication campaigns included negative perceptions of e-cigarette users and social stigma, as well as harm perceptions and potential health consequences associated with e-cigarette use.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Proteomic analysis of first trimester maternal serum to identify candidate biomarkers potentially predictive of spontaneous preterm birth.

PubMed

D'Silva, Arlene M; Hyett, Jon A; Coorssen, Jens R

2018-04-30

Spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) remains a major clinical dilemma; current diagnostics and interventions have not reduced the rate of this serious healthcare burden. This study characterizes differential protein profiles and post-translational modifications (PTMs) in first trimester maternal serum using a refined top-down approach coupling two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) and mass spectrometry (MS) to directly compare subsequent term and preterm labour events and identify marked protein differences. 30 proteoforms were found to be significantly increased or decreased in the sPTB group including 9 phosphoproteins and 11 glycoproteins. Changes occurred in proteins associated with immune and defence responses. We identified protein species that are associated with several clinically relevant biological processes, including interrelated biological networks linked to regulation of the complement cascade and coagulation pathways, immune modulation, metabolic processes and cell signalling. The finding of altered proteoforms in maternal serum from pregnancies that delivered preterm suggests these as potential early biomarkers of sPTB and also possible mediators of the disorder. Identifying changes in protein profiles is critical in the study of cell biology, and disease treatment and prevention. Identifying consistent changes in the maternal serum proteome during early pregnancy, including specific protein PTMs (e.g. phosphorylation, glycosylation), is likely to provide better opportunities for prediction, intervention and prevention of preterm birth. This is the first study to examine first trimester maternal serum using a highly refined top-down proteomic analytical approach based on high resolution 2DE coupled with mass spectrometry to directly compare preterm (<37 weeks) and preterm (≥37 weeks) events and identify select protein differences between these conditions. As such, the data present a promising avenue for translation of biomarker discovery to a

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

Structured methods for identifying and correcting potential human errors in aviation operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, W.R.

1997-10-01

Human errors have been identified as the source of approximately 60% of the incidents and accidents that occur in commercial aviation. It can be assumed that a very large number of human errors occur in aviation operations, even though in most cases the redundancies and diversities built into the design of aircraft systems prevent the errors from leading to serious consequences. In addition, when it is acknowledged that many system failures have their roots in human errors that occur in the design phase, it becomes apparent that the identification and elimination of potential human errors could significantly decrease the risksmore » of aviation operations. This will become even more critical during the design of advanced automation-based aircraft systems as well as next-generation systems for air traffic management. Structured methods to identify and correct potential human errors in aviation operations have been developed and are currently undergoing testing at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL).« less

Identifying Advanced Technologies for Education's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Gwendolyn B.; Yin, Robert K.

A study to determine how three advanced technologies might be applied to the needs of special education students helped inspire the development of a new method for identifying such applications. This new method, named the "Hybrid Approach," combines features of the two traditional methods: technology-push and demand-pull. Technology-push involves…

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systemic Response to Microgravity: Utilizing GeneLab Datasets to Identify Molecular Targets for Future Hypotheses-Driven Spaceflight Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beheshti, Afshin; Ray, Shayoni; Fogle, Homer; Berrios, Daniel C.; Costes, Sylvain V.

2017-01-01

Biological risks associated with microgravity are a major concern for long-term space travel. Although determination of risk has been a focus for NASA research, data examining systemic (i.e., multi- or pan-tissue) responses to space flight are sparse. To perform our analysis, we utilized the NASA GeneLab database which is a publicly available repository containing a wide array of omics results from experiments conducted with: i) with different flight conditions (space shuttle (STS) missions vs. International Space Station (ISS); ii) a variety of tissues; and 3) assays that measure epigenetic, transcriptional, and protein expression changes. Meta-analysis of the transcriptomic data from 7 different murine and rat data sets, examining tissues such as liver, kidney, adrenal gland, thymus, mammary gland, skin, and skeletal muscle (soleus, extensor digitorum longus, tibialis anterior, quadriceps, and gastrocnemius) revealed for the first time, the existence of potential master regulators coordinating systemic responses to microgravity in rodents. We identified p53, TGF(beta)1 and immune related pathways as the highly prevalent pan-tissue signaling pathways that are affected by microgravity. Some variability in the degree of change in their expression across species, strain and time of flight was also observed. Interestingly, while certain skeletal muscle (gastrocnemius and soleus) exhibited an overall down-regulation of these genes, some other muscle types such as the extensor digitorum longus, tibialis anterior and quadriceps, showed an up-regulated expression, indicative of potential compensatory mechanisms to prevent microgravity-induced atrophy. Key genes isolated by unbiased systems analyses displayed a major overlap between tissue types and flight conditions and established TGF(beta)1 to be the most connected gene across all data sets. Finally, a set of microgravity responsive miRNA signature was identified and based on their predicted functional state and

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barr, Lawrence C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

2014-12-01

An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Steady-State Somatosensory Evoked Potential for Brain-Computer Interface—Present and Future

PubMed Central

Ahn, Sangtae; Kim, Kiwoong; Jun, Sung Chan

2016-01-01

Brain-computer interface (BCI) performance has achieved continued improvement over recent decades, and sensorimotor rhythm-based BCIs that use motor function have been popular subjects of investigation. However, it remains problematic to introduce them to the public market because of their low reliability. As an alternative resolution to this issue, visual-based BCIs that use P300 or steady-state visually evoked potentials (SSVEPs) seem promising; however, the inherent visual fatigue that occurs with these BCIs may be unavoidable. For these reasons, steady-state somatosensory evoked potential (SSSEP) BCIs, which are based on tactile selective attention, have gained increasing attention recently. These may reduce the fatigue induced by visual attention and overcome the low reliability of motor activity. In this literature survey, recent findings on SSSEP and its methodological uses in BCI are reviewed. Further, existing limitations of SSSEP BCI and potential future directions for the technique are discussed. PMID:26834611

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

Identifying Pre-Service Teachers' Beliefs about Teaching EFL and Their Potential Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suárez Flórez, Sergio Andrés; Basto Basto, Edwin Arley

2017-01-01

This study aims at identifying pre-service teachers' beliefs about teaching English as a foreign language and tracking their potential changes throughout the teaching practicum. Participants were two pre-service teachers in their fifth year of their Bachelor of Arts in Foreign Languages program in a public university in Colombia. Data were…

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

PubMed Central

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

PubMed Central

Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

2012-01-01

Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

Obtaining subjects' consent to publish identifying personal information: current practices and identifying potential issues.

PubMed

Yoshida, Akiko; Dowa, Yuri; Murakami, Hiromi; Kosugi, Shinji

2013-11-25

In studies publishing identifying personal information, obtaining consent is regarded as necessary, as it is impossible to ensure complete anonymity. However, current journal practices around specific points to consider when obtaining consent, the contents of consent forms and how consent forms are managed have not yet been fully examined. This study was conducted to identify potential issues surrounding consent to publish identifying personal information. Content analysis was carried out on instructions for authors and consent forms developed by academic journals in four fields (as classified by Journal Citation Reports): medicine general and internal, genetics and heredity, pediatrics, and psychiatry. An online questionnaire survey of editors working for journals that require the submission of consent forms was also conducted. Instructions for authors were reviewed for 491 academic journals (132 for medicine general and internal, 147 for genetics and heredity, 100 for pediatrics, and 112 for psychiatry). Approximately 40% (203: 74 for medicine general and internal, 31 for genetics and heredity, 58 for pediatrics, and 40 for psychiatry) stated that subject consent was necessary. The submission of consent forms was required by 30% (154) of the journals studied, and 10% (50) provided their own consent forms for authors to use. Two journals mentioned that the possible effects of publication on subjects should be considered. Many journal consent forms mentioned the difficulties in ensuring complete anonymity of subjects, but few addressed the study objective, the subjects' right to refuse consent and the withdrawal of consent. The main reason for requiring the submission of consent forms was to confirm that consent had been obtained. Approximately 40% of journals required subject consent to be obtained. However, differences were observed depending on the fields. Specific considerations were not always documented. There is a need to address issues around the study

Obtaining subjects’ consent to publish identifying personal information: current practices and identifying potential issues

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In studies publishing identifying personal information, obtaining consent is regarded as necessary, as it is impossible to ensure complete anonymity. However, current journal practices around specific points to consider when obtaining consent, the contents of consent forms and how consent forms are managed have not yet been fully examined. This study was conducted to identify potential issues surrounding consent to publish identifying personal information. Methods Content analysis was carried out on instructions for authors and consent forms developed by academic journals in four fields (as classified by Journal Citation Reports): medicine general and internal, genetics and heredity, pediatrics, and psychiatry. An online questionnaire survey of editors working for journals that require the submission of consent forms was also conducted. Results Instructions for authors were reviewed for 491 academic journals (132 for medicine general and internal, 147 for genetics and heredity, 100 for pediatrics, and 112 for psychiatry). Approximately 40% (203: 74 for medicine general and internal, 31 for genetics and heredity, 58 for pediatrics, and 40 for psychiatry) stated that subject consent was necessary. The submission of consent forms was required by 30% (154) of the journals studied, and 10% (50) provided their own consent forms for authors to use. Two journals mentioned that the possible effects of publication on subjects should be considered. Many journal consent forms mentioned the difficulties in ensuring complete anonymity of subjects, but few addressed the study objective, the subjects’ right to refuse consent and the withdrawal of consent. The main reason for requiring the submission of consent forms was to confirm that consent had been obtained. Conclusion Approximately 40% of journals required subject consent to be obtained. However, differences were observed depending on the fields. Specific considerations were not always documented. There is a need

Identifying Potential Mechanisms Enabling Acidophily in the Ammonia-Oxidizing Archaeon “Candidatus Nitrosotalea devanaterra”

PubMed Central

Sayavedra-Soto, Luis A.; Gallois, Nicolas; Schouten, Stefan; Stein, Lisa Y.; Prosser, James I.; Nicol, Graeme W.

2016-01-01

Ammonia oxidation is the first and rate-limiting step in nitrification and is dominated by two distinct groups of microorganisms in soil: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB). AOA are often more abundant than AOB and dominate activity in acid soils. The mechanism of ammonia oxidation under acidic conditions has been a long-standing paradox. While high rates of ammonia oxidation are frequently measured in acid soils, cultivated ammonia oxidizers grew only at near-neutral pH when grown in standard laboratory culture. Although a number of mechanisms have been demonstrated to enable neutrophilic AOB growth at low pH in the laboratory, these have not been demonstrated in soil, and the recent cultivation of the obligately acidophilic ammonia oxidizer “Candidatus Nitrosotalea devanaterra” provides a more parsimonious explanation for the observed high rates of activity. Analysis of the sequenced genome, transcriptional activity, and lipid content of “Ca. Nitrosotalea devanaterra” reveals that previously proposed mechanisms used by AOB for growth at low pH are not essential for archaeal ammonia oxidation in acidic environments. Instead, the genome indicates that “Ca. Nitrosotalea devanaterra” contains genes encoding both a predicted high-affinity substrate acquisition system and potential pH homeostasis mechanisms absent in neutrophilic AOA. Analysis of mRNA revealed that candidate genes encoding the proposed homeostasis mechanisms were all expressed during acidophilic growth, and lipid profiling by high-performance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) demonstrated that the membrane lipids of “Ca. Nitrosotalea devanaterra” were not dominated by crenarchaeol, as found in neutrophilic AOA. This study for the first time describes a genome of an obligately acidophilic ammonia oxidizer and identifies potential mechanisms enabling this unique phenotype for future biochemical characterization. PMID:26896134

Proteomic Analysis of Saliva Identifies Potential Biomarkers for Orthodontic Tooth Movement

PubMed Central

Ellias, Mohd Faiz; Zainal Ariffin, Shahrul Hisham; Karsani, Saiful Anuar; Abdul Rahman, Mariati; Senafi, Shahidan; Megat Abdul Wahab, Rohaya

2012-01-01

Orthodontic treatment has been shown to induce inflammation, followed by bone remodelling in the periodontium. These processes trigger the secretion of various proteins and enzymes into the saliva. This study aims to identify salivary proteins that change in expression during orthodontic tooth movement. These differentially expressed proteins can potentially serve as protein biomarkers for the monitoring of orthodontic treatment and tooth movement. Whole saliva from three healthy female subjects were collected before force application using fixed appliance and at 14 days after 0.014′′ Niti wire was applied. Salivary proteins were resolved using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) over a pH range of 3–10, and the resulting proteome profiles were compared. Differentially expressed protein spots were then identified by MALDI-TOF/TOF tandem mass spectrometry. Nine proteins were found to be differentially expressed; however, only eight were identified by MALDI-TOF/TOF. Four of these proteins—Protein S100-A9, immunoglobulin J chain, Ig alpha-1 chain C region, and CRISP-3—have known roles in inflammation and bone resorption. PMID:22919344

Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change.

PubMed

Kaky, Emad; Gilbert, Francis

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a 'business as usual' scenario was more harmful than the B2a 'moderate mitigation' scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt's PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.

Pharmacophore modeling and virtual screening to identify potential RET kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Shih, Kuei-Chung; Shiau, Chung-Wai; Chen, Ting-Shou; Ko, Ching-Huai; Lin, Chih-Lung; Lin, Chun-Yuan; Hwang, Chrong-Shiong; Tang, Chuan-Yi; Chen, Wan-Ru; Huang, Jui-Wen

2011-08-01

Chemical features based 3D pharmacophore model for REarranged during Transfection (RET) tyrosine kinase were developed by using a training set of 26 structurally diverse known RET inhibitors. The best pharmacophore hypothesis, which identified inhibitors with an associated correlation coefficient of 0.90 between their experimental and estimated anti-RET values, contained one hydrogen-bond acceptor, one hydrogen-bond donor, one hydrophobic, and one ring aromatic features. The model was further validated by a testing set, Fischer's randomization test, and goodness of hit (GH) test. We applied this pharmacophore model to screen NCI database for potential RET inhibitors. The hits were docked to RET with GOLD and CDOCKER after filtering by Lipinski's rules. Ultimately, 24 molecules were selected as potential RET inhibitors for further investigation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plume induced environments on future lunar mission vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rochelle, Bill; Hughes, Ruston; Fitzgerald, Steve

1992-01-01

The objective of this presentation is to identify potential plume heating/impingement problem areas on vehicles used for future lunar missions. This is accomplished by comparison with lunar module plume investigations performed during 1968-1971. All material is presented in viewgraph format.

Time-saving impact of an algorithm to identify potential surgical site infections.

PubMed

Knepper, B C; Young, H; Jenkins, T C; Price, C S

2013-10-01

To develop and validate a partially automated algorithm to identify surgical site infections (SSIs) using commonly available electronic data to reduce manual chart review. Retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing specific surgical procedures over a 4-year period from 2007 through 2010 (algorithm development cohort) or over a 3-month period from January 2011 through March 2011 (algorithm validation cohort). A single academic safety-net hospital in a major metropolitan area. Patients undergoing at least 1 included surgical procedure during the study period. Procedures were identified in the National Healthcare Safety Network; SSIs were identified by manual chart review. Commonly available electronic data, including microbiologic, laboratory, and administrative data, were identified via a clinical data warehouse. Algorithms using combinations of these electronic variables were constructed and assessed for their ability to identify SSIs and reduce chart review. The most efficient algorithm identified in the development cohort combined microbiologic data with postoperative procedure and diagnosis codes. This algorithm resulted in 100% sensitivity and 85% specificity. Time savings from the algorithm was almost 600 person-hours of chart review. The algorithm demonstrated similar sensitivity on application to the validation cohort. A partially automated algorithm to identify potential SSIs was highly sensitive and dramatically reduced the amount of manual chart review required of infection control personnel during SSI surveillance.

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Past Strategies and Future Directions for Identifying AMP-Activated Protein Kinase (AMPK) Modulators

PubMed Central

Sinnett, Sarah E.; Brenman, Jay E.

2014-01-01

AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is a promising therapeutic target for cancer, type II diabetes, and other illnesses characterized by abnormal energy utilization. During the last decade, numerous labs have published a range of methods for identifying novel AMPK modulators. The current understanding of AMPK structure and regulation, however, has propelled a paradigm shift in which many researchers now consider ADP to be an additional regulatory nucleotide of AMPK. How can the AMPK community apply this new understanding of AMPK signaling to translational research? Recent insights into AMPK structure, regulation, and holoenzyme-sensitive signaling may provide the hindsight needed to clearly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of past AMPK drug discovery efforts. Improving future strategies for AMPK drug discovery will require pairing the current understanding of AMPK signaling with improved experimental designs. PMID:24583089

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Jj of... - List of VHAP of Potential Concern Identified by Industry

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 10 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false List of VHAP of Potential Concern Identified by Industry 5 Table 5 to Subpart JJ of Part 63 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION.... 63, Subpt. JJ, Table 5 Table 5 to Subpart JJ of Part 63—List of VHAP of Potential Concern Identified...

Characterization of potential mineralization in Afghanistan: four permissive areas identified using imaging spectroscopy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Trude V.V.; Berger, Byron R.; Johnson, Michaela R.

2014-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations natural resources revitalization activities in Afghanistan, four permissive areas for mineralization, Bamyan 1, Farah 1, Ghazni 1, and Ghazni 2, have been identified using imaging spectroscopy data. To support economic development, the areas of potential mineralization were selected on the occurrence of selected mineral assemblages mapped using the HyMap™ data (kaolinite, jarosite, hydrated silica, chlorite, epidote, iron-bearing carbonate, buddingtonite, dickite, and alunite) that may be indicative of past mineralization processes in areas with limited or no previous mineral resource studies. Approximately 30 sites were initially determined to be candidates for areas of potential mineralization. Additional criteria and material used to refine the selection and prioritization process included existing geologic maps, Landsat Thematic Mapper data, and published literature. The HyMapTM data were interpreted in the context of the regional geologic and tectonic setting and used the presence of alteration mineral assemblages to identify areas with the potential for undiscovered mineral resources. Further field-sampling, mapping, and supporting geochemical analyses are necessary to fully substantiate and verify the specific deposit types in the four areas of potential mineralization.

Research on the International Space Station: Understanding Future Potential from Current Accomplishments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Julie A.

2007-01-01

In November 2007, the International Space Station (ISS) will have supported seven years of continuous presence in space, with 15 Expeditions completed. These years have been characterized by the numerous technical challenges of assembly as well as operational and logistical challenges related to the availability of transportation by the Space Shuttle. During this period, an active set of early research objectives have also been accomplished alongside the assembly. This paper will review the research accomplishments on ISS to date, with the objective of drawing insights on the potential of future research following completion of ISS assembly. By the end of Expedition 15, an expected 121 U.S.-managed investigations will have been conducted on ISS, with 91 of these completed. Many of these investigations include multiple scientific objectives, with an estimated total of 334 scientists served. Through February 2007, 101 scientific publications have been identified. Another 184 investigations have been sponsored by ISS international partners, which independently track their scientists served and results publication. Through this survey of U.S. research completed on ISS, three different themes will be addressed: (1) How have constraints on transportation of mass to orbit affected the types of research successfully completed on the ISS to date? What lessons can be learned for increasing the success of ISS as a research platform during the period following the retirement of the Space Shuttle? (2) How have constraints on crew time for research during assembly and the active participation of crewmembers as scientists affected the types of research successfully completed on the ISS to date? What lessons can be learned for optimizing research return following the increase in capacity from 3 to 6 crewmembers (planned for 2009)? What lessons can be learned for optimizing research return after assembly is complete? (3) What do early research results indicate about the various

Identifying areas under potential risk of illegal construction and demolition waste dumping using GIS tools.

PubMed

Seror, Nissim; Portnov, Boris A

2018-05-01

Construction and demolition (C&D) waste, dumped illegally in ravines and open areas, contaminates soil and can cause underground water pollution and forests fires. Yet, effective monitoring of illegal C&D waste dumping and enforcing legislation against the offenders are often a difficult task due to the large size of geographic areas that need to be monitored, and limited human and financial resources available to environmental law enforcement agencies. In this study, we use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and geo-statistical modelling to identify the areas under potentially elevated risk of illegal C&D waste dumping in the Haifa district of Israel. As our analysis shows, locational factors, significantly associated with the accumulated amount of waste in the existing illegal C&D waste sites, include: distance to the nearest main road, depth of the ravine present at the site (p<0.01), and forest proximity (p<0.05). Using the model incorporating these locational parameters, we mapped the areas under the elevated risk of illegal C&D waste dumping for future monitoring. As we suggest, the proposed approach may be useful for environmental law enforcement authorities, by helping them to focus on specific sites for inspection, save resources, and act against the offenders more efficiently. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying external nutrient reduction requirements and potential in the hypereutrophic Lake Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Peng, Jiao-Ting; Zhu, Xiao-Dong; Sun, Xiang; Song, Xiao-Wei

2018-04-01

Reducing external nutrient loads is the first step for controlling eutrophication. Here, we identified external nutrient reduction requirements and potential of strategies for achieving reductions to remediate a eutrophic water body, Lake Taihu, China. A mass balance approach based on the entire lake was used to identify nutrient reduction requirements; an empirical export coefficient approach was introduced to estimate the nutrient reduction potential of the overall program on integrated regulation of Taihu Lake Basin (hereafter referred to as the "Guideline"). Reduction requirements included external total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads, which should be reduced by 41-55 and 25-50%, respectively, to prevent nutrient accumulation in Lake Taihu and to meet the planned water quality targets. In 2010, which is the most seriously polluted calendar year during the 2008-2014 period, the nutrient reduction requirements were estimated to be 36,819 tons of N and 2442 tons of P, and the potential nutrient reduction strategies would reduce approximately 25,821 tons of N and 3024 tons of P. Since there is a net N remaining in the reduction requirements, it should be the focus and deserves more attention in identifying external nutrient reduction strategies. Moreover, abatement measures outlined in the Guideline with high P reduction potential required large monetary investments. Achieving TP reduction requirement using the cost-effective strategy costs about 80.24 million USD. The design of nutrient reduction strategies should be enacted according to regional and sectoral differences and the cost-effectiveness of abatement measures.

Researchers identify potential therapeutic targets for a rare childhood cancer | Center for Cancer Research

Cancer.gov

CCR researchers have identified the mechanism behind a rare but extremely aggressive childhood cancer called alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma (ARMS) and have pinpointed a potential drug target for its treatment. Learn more...

Surveillance methods for identifying, characterizing, and monitoring tobacco products: potential reduced exposure products as an example

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Richard J.; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Connolly, Gregory N.; Norton, Kaila J.; Sweanor, David; Parascandola, Mark; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Shields, Peter G.

2015-01-01

Tobacco products are widely sold and marketed, yet integrated data systems for identifying, tracking, and characterizing products are lacking. Tobacco manufacturers recently have developed potential reduction exposure products (PREPs) with implied or explicit health claims. Currently, a systematic approach for identifying, defining, and evaluating PREPs sold at the local, state or national levels in the US has not been developed. Identifying, characterizing, and monitoring new tobacco products could be greatly enhanced with a responsive surveillance system. This paper critically reviews available surveillance data sources for identifying and tracking tobacco products, including PREPs, evaluating strengths and weaknesses of potential data sources in light of their reliability and validity. Absent regulations mandating disclosure of product-specific information, it is likely that public health officials will need to rely on a variety of imperfect data sources to help identify, characterize, and monitor tobacco products, including PREPs. PMID:19959680

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

2006-01-01

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

Some potential material supply constraints in solar systems for heating and cooling of buildings and process heat. (A preliminary screening to identify critical materials)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watts, R.L.; Gurwell, W.E.; Nelson, T.A.

1979-06-01

Nine Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings (SHACOB) designs and three Agricultural and Industrial Process Heat (AIPH) designs have been studied to identify potential future material constraints to their large scale installation and use. The nine SHACOB and three AIPH systems were screened and found to be free of serious future material constraints. The screening was carried out for each individual system design assuming 500 million m/sup 2/ of collector area installed by the year 2000. Also, two mixed design scenarios, containing equal portions of each system design, were screened. To keep these scenarios in perspective, note that a billionmore » m/sup 2/ containing a mixture of the nine SHACOB designs will yield an annual solar contribution of about 1.3 Quads or will displace about 4.2 Quads of fossil fuel used to generate electricity. For AIPH a billion square meters of the mixed designs will yield about 2.8 Quads/year. Three materials were identified that could possibly restrain the deployment of solar systems in the specific scenarios investigated. They are iron and steel, soda lime glass and polyvinyl fluoride. All three of these materials are bulk materials. No raw material supply constraints were found.« less

The future of planetary defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, A.

2017-04-01

Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than 1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.