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Sample records for identify predictive surrogate

  1. Multiple surrogates for prediction and optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viana, Felipe A. C.

    2011-12-01

    Statistical modeling of computer experiments embraces the set of methodologies for generating a surrogate model (also known as metamodel or response surface approximation) used to replace an expensive simulation code. The aim of surrogate modeling is to construct an approximation of a response of interest based on a limited number of expensive simulations. Nevertheless, after years of intensive research on the field, surrogate-based analysis and optimization is still a struggle to achieve maximum accuracy for a given number of simulations. In this dissertation, we have taken advantage of multiple surrogates to address the issues that we face when we (i) want to build an accurate surrogate model under limited computational budget, (ii) use the surrogate for constrained optimization and the exact analysis shows that the solution is infeasible, and (iii) use the surrogate for global optimization and do not know where to place a set of points in which we are most likely to have improvement. In terms of prediction accuracy, we have found that multiple surrogates work as insurance against poorly fitted models. Additionally, we propose the use of safety margins to conservatively compensate for fitting errors associated with surrogates. We were able to estimate the safety margin for a specific conservativeness level, and we found that it is possible to select a surrogate with the best compromise between conservativeness and loss of accuracy. In terms of optimization, we proposed two strategies for enabling surrogate-based global optimization with parallel function evaluations. The first one is based on the simultaneous use of multiple surrogates (a set of surrogates collaboratively provide multiple points). The second strategy uses a single surrogate and one cheap to evaluate criterion (probability of improvement) for multiple point selection approximation. In both cases, we found that we could successfully speed up the optimization convergence without clear penalties as

  2. APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT. P.R. Dodmane1, L.E. Lizarraga1, J.P. Kaiser2, S.C. Wesselkamper2, Q.J. Zhao2. 1ORISE Participant, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), Cincinnati...

  3. Identifying experimental surrogates for Bacillus anthracis spores: a review

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a proven biological weapon. In order to study this threat, a number of experimental surrogates have been used over the past 70 years. However, not all surrogates are appropriate for B. anthracis, especially when investigating transport, fate and survival. Although B. atrophaeus has been widely used as a B. anthracis surrogate, the two species do not always behave identically in transport and survival models. Therefore, we devised a scheme to identify a more appropriate surrogate for B. anthracis. Our selection criteria included risk of use (pathogenicity), phylogenetic relationship, morphology and comparative survivability when challenged with biocides. Although our knowledge of certain parameters remains incomplete, especially with regards to comparisons of spore longevity under natural conditions, we found that B. thuringiensis provided the best overall fit as a non-pathogenic surrogate for B. anthracis. Thus, we suggest focusing on this surrogate in future experiments of spore fate and transport modelling. PMID:21092338

  4. Fast Prediction and Evaluation of Gravitational Waveforms Using Surrogate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, Scott E.; Galley, Chad R.; Hesthaven, Jan S.; Kaye, Jason; Tiglio, Manuel

    2014-07-01

    We propose a solution to the problem of quickly and accurately predicting gravitational waveforms within any given physical model. The method is relevant for both real-time applications and more traditional scenarios where the generation of waveforms using standard methods can be prohibitively expensive. Our approach is based on three offline steps resulting in an accurate reduced order model in both parameter and physical dimensions that can be used as a surrogate for the true or fiducial waveform family. First, a set of m parameter values is determined using a greedy algorithm from which a reduced basis representation is constructed. Second, these m parameters induce the selection of m time values for interpolating a waveform time series using an empirical interpolant that is built for the fiducial waveform family. Third, a fit in the parameter dimension is performed for the waveform's value at each of these m times. The cost of predicting L waveform time samples for a generic parameter choice is of order O(mL+mcfit) online operations, where cfit denotes the fitting function operation count and, typically, m ≪L. The result is a compact, computationally efficient, and accurate surrogate model that retains the original physics of the fiducial waveform family while also being fast to evaluate. We generate accurate surrogate models for effective-one-body waveforms of nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with durations as long as 105M, mass ratios from 1 to 10, and for multiple spherical harmonic modes. We find that these surrogates are more than 3 orders of magnitude faster to evaluate as compared to the cost of generating effective-one-body waveforms in standard ways. Surrogate model building for other waveform families and models follows the same steps and has the same low computational online scaling cost. For expensive numerical simulations of binary black hole coalescences, we thus anticipate extremely large speedups in generating new waveforms with a

  5. Inhibitors of bacterial virulence identified in a surrogate host model.

    PubMed

    Benghezal, Mohammed; Adam, Eric; Lucas, Aurore; Burn, Christine; Orchard, Michael G; Deuschel, Christine; Valentino, Emilio; Braillard, Stéphanie; Paccaud, Jean-Pierre; Cosson, Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Antibiotic resistance continues to reduce the number of available antibiotics, increasing the need for novel antibacterial drugs. Since the seminal work of Sir Alexander Fleming, antibiotic identification has been based exclusively on the inhibition of bacterial growth in vitro. Recently, inhibitors of bacterial virulence which interfere with bacterial pathogenesis mechanisms have been proposed as an alternative to antibiotics, and a few were discovered using assays targeting specific virulence mechanisms. Here we designed a simple surrogate host model for the measurement of virulence and systematic discovery of anti-virulence molecules, based on the interaction of Tetrahymena pyriformis and Klebsiella pneumoniae cells. We screened a library of small molecules and identified several inhibitors of virulence. In a mouse pneumonia model we confirmed that an anti-virulence molecule displayed antibacterial activity against Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, by reducing dramatically the bacterial load in the lungs. This molecule did not inhibit bacterial growth in vitro but prevented biosynthesis of the Klebsiella capsule and lipopolysaccharides, a key requirement for virulence. Our results demonstrate that anti-virulence molecules represent an alternative to antibiotics and those can be discovered using non-animal host models.

  6. Identifying novel clinical surrogates to assess human bone fracture toughness

    PubMed Central

    Granke, Mathilde; Makowski, Alexander J; Uppuganti, Sasidhar; Does, Mark D; Nyman, Jeffry S

    2015-01-01

    Fracture risk does not solely depend on strength but also on fracture toughness, i.e. the ability of bone material to resist crack initiation and propagation. Because resistance to crack growth largely depends on bone properties at the tissue level including collagen characteristics, current X-ray based assessment tools may not be suitable to identify age-, disease-, or treatment-related changes in fracture toughness. To identify useful clinical surrogates that could improve the assessment of fracture resistance, we investigated the potential of 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and reference point indentation (RPI) to explain age-related variance in fracture toughness. Harvested from cadaveric femurs (62 human donors), single-edge notched beam (SENB) specimens of cortical bone underwent fracture toughness testing (R-curve method). NMR-derived bound water showed the strongest correlation with fracture toughness properties (r=0.63 for crack initiation, r=0.35 for crack growth, and r=0.45 for overall fracture toughness; p<0.01). Multivariate analyses indicated that the age-related decrease in different fracture toughness properties were best explained by a combination of NMR properties including pore water and RPI-derived tissue stiffness with age as a significant covariate (adjusted R2 = 53.3%, 23.9%, and 35.2% for crack initiation, crack growth, and overall toughness, respectively; p<0.001). These findings reflect the existence of many contributors to fracture toughness and emphasize the utility of a multimodal assessment of fracture resistance. Exploring the mechanistic origin of fracture toughness, glycation-mediated, non-enzymatic collagen crosslinks and intra-cortical porosity are possible determinants of bone fracture toughness and could explain the sensitivity of NMR to changes in fracture toughness. Assuming fracture toughness is clinically important to the ability of bone to resist fracture, our results suggest that improvements in fracture

  7. On identified predictive control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

    1993-01-01

    Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

  8. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-08-01

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan’s protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan.

  9. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-01-01

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan’s protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan. PMID:27538537

  10. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China.

    PubMed

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-01-01

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan's protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan. PMID:27538537

  11. Combining endangered plants and animals as surrogates to identify priority conservation areas in Yunnan, China.

    PubMed

    Yang, Feiling; Hu, Jinming; Wu, Ruidong

    2016-08-19

    Suitable surrogates are critical for identifying optimal priority conservation areas (PCAs) to protect regional biodiversity. This study explored the efficiency of using endangered plants and animals as surrogates for identifying PCAs at the county level in Yunnan, southwest China. We ran the Dobson algorithm under three surrogate scenarios at 75% and 100% conservation levels and identified four types of PCAs. Assessment of the protection efficiencies of the four types of PCAs showed that endangered plants had higher surrogacy values than endangered animals but that the two were not substitutable; coupled endangered plants and animals as surrogates yielded a higher surrogacy value than endangered plants or animals as surrogates; the plant-animal priority areas (PAPAs) was the optimal among the four types of PCAs for conserving both endangered plants and animals in Yunnan. PAPAs could well represent overall species diversity distribution patterns and overlap with critical biogeographical regions in Yunnan. Fourteen priority units in PAPAs should be urgently considered as optimizing Yunnan's protected area system. The spatial pattern of PAPAs at the 100% conservation level could be conceptualized into three connected conservation belts, providing a valuable reference for optimizing the layout of the in situ protected area system in Yunnan.

  12. Surrogate Modeling of High-Fidelity Fracture Simulations for Real-Time Residual Strength Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spear, Ashley D.; Priest, Amanda R.; Veilleux, Michael G.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

    2011-01-01

    A surrogate model methodology is described for predicting, during flight, the residual strength of aircraft structures that sustain discrete-source damage. Starting with design of experiment, an artificial neural network is developed that takes as input discrete-source damage parameters and outputs a prediction of the structural residual strength. Target residual strength values used to train the artificial neural network are derived from 3D finite element-based fracture simulations. Two ductile fracture simulations are presented to show that crack growth and residual strength are determined more accurately in discrete-source damage cases by using an elastic-plastic fracture framework rather than a linear-elastic fracture mechanics-based method. Improving accuracy of the residual strength training data does, in turn, improve accuracy of the surrogate model. When combined, the surrogate model methodology and high fidelity fracture simulation framework provide useful tools for adaptive flight technology.

  13. Surrogate Modeling of High-Fidelity Fracture Simulations for Real-Time Residual Strength Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spear, Ashley D.; Priest, Amanda R.; Veilleux, Michael G.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

    2011-01-01

    A surrogate model methodology is described for predicting in real time the residual strength of flight structures with discrete-source damage. Starting with design of experiment, an artificial neural network is developed that takes as input discrete-source damage parameters and outputs a prediction of the structural residual strength. Target residual strength values used to train the artificial neural network are derived from 3D finite element-based fracture simulations. A residual strength test of a metallic, integrally-stiffened panel is simulated to show that crack growth and residual strength are determined more accurately in discrete-source damage cases by using an elastic-plastic fracture framework rather than a linear-elastic fracture mechanics-based method. Improving accuracy of the residual strength training data would, in turn, improve accuracy of the surrogate model. When combined, the surrogate model methodology and high-fidelity fracture simulation framework provide useful tools for adaptive flight technology.

  14. Ensemble of Surrogates-based Optimization for Identifying an Optimal Surfactant-enhanced Aquifer Remediation Strategy at Heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, W., Sr.; Xin, X.; Luo, J.; Jiang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, M.; Hou, Z.; Ouyang, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

  15. Ensemble of surrogates-based optimization for identifying an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation strategy at heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xue; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhao, Haiqing; Na, Jin

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

  16. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

  17. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases). PMID:26430979

  18. Predicting trace organic compound breakthrough in granular activated carbon using fluorescence and UV absorbance as surrogates.

    PubMed

    Anumol, Tarun; Sgroi, Massimiliano; Park, Minkyu; Roccaro, Paolo; Snyder, Shane A

    2015-06-01

    This study investigated the applicability of bulk organic parameters like dissolved organic carbon (DOC), UV absorbance at 254 nm (UV254), and total fluorescence (TF) to act as surrogates in predicting trace organic compound (TOrC) removal by granular activated carbon in water reuse applications. Using rapid small-scale column testing, empirical linear correlations for thirteen TOrCs were determined with DOC, UV254, and TF in four wastewater effluents. Linear correlations (R(2) > 0.7) were obtained for eight TOrCs in each water quality in the UV254 model, while ten TOrCs had R(2) > 0.7 in the TF model. Conversely, DOC was shown to be a poor surrogate for TOrC breakthrough prediction. When the data from all four water qualities was combined, good linear correlations were still obtained with TF having higher R(2) than UV254 especially for TOrCs with log Dow>1. Excellent linear relationship (R(2) > 0.9) between log Dow and the removal of TOrC at 0% surrogate removal (y-intercept) were obtained for the five neutral TOrCs tested in this study. Positively charged TOrCs had enhanced removals due to electrostatic interactions with negatively charged GAC that caused them to deviate from removals that would be expected with their log Dow. Application of the empirical linear correlation models to full-scale samples provided good results for six of seven TOrCs (except meprobamate) tested when comparing predicted TOrC removal by UV254 and TF with actual removals for GAC in all the five samples tested. Surrogate predictions using UV254 and TF provide valuable tools for rapid or on-line monitoring of GAC performance and can result in cost savings by extended GAC run times as compared to using DOC breakthrough to trigger regeneration or replacement.

  19. Surrogate modelling and optimization using shape-preserving response prediction: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leifsson, Leifur; Koziel, Slawomir

    2016-03-01

    Computer simulation models are ubiquitous in modern engineering design. In many cases, they are the only way to evaluate a given design with sufficient fidelity. Unfortunately, an added computational expense is associated with higher fidelity models. Moreover, the systems being considered are often highly nonlinear and may feature a large number of designable parameters. Therefore, it may be impractical to solve the design problem with conventional optimization algorithms. A promising approach to alleviate these difficulties is surrogate-based optimization (SBO). Among proven SBO techniques, the methods utilizing surrogates constructed from corrected physics-based low-fidelity models are, in many cases, the most efficient. This article reviews a particular technique of this type, namely, shape-preserving response prediction (SPRP), which works on the level of the model responses to correct the underlying low-fidelity models. The formulation and limitations of SPRP are discussed. Applications to several engineering design problems are provided.

  20. Measure profile surrogates: A method to validate the performance of epileptic seizure prediction algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreuz, Thomas; Andrzejak, Ralph G.; Mormann, Florian; Kraskov, Alexander; Stögbauer, Harald; Elger, Christian E.; Lehnertz, Klaus; Grassberger, Peter

    2004-06-01

    In a growing number of publications it is claimed that epileptic seizures can be predicted by analyzing the electroencephalogram (EEG) with different characterizing measures. However, many of these studies suffer from a severe lack of statistical validation. Only rarely are results passed to a statistical test and verified against some null hypothesis H0 in order to quantify their significance. In this paper we propose a method to statistically validate the performance of measures used to predict epileptic seizures. From measure profiles rendered by applying a moving-window technique to the electroencephalogram we first generate an ensemble of surrogates by a constrained randomization using simulated annealing. Subsequently the seizure prediction algorithm is applied to the original measure profile and to the surrogates. If detectable changes before seizure onset exist, highest performance values should be obtained for the original measure profiles and the null hypothesis. “The measure is not suited for seizure prediction” can be rejected. We demonstrate our method by applying two measures of synchronization to a quasicontinuous EEG recording and by evaluating their predictive performance using a straightforward seizure prediction statistics. We would like to stress that the proposed method is rather universal and can be applied to many other prediction and detection problems.

  1. Development of surrogate correlation models to predict trace organic contaminant oxidation and microbial inactivation during ozonation.

    PubMed

    Gerrity, Daniel; Gamage, Sujanie; Jones, Darryl; Korshin, Gregory V; Lee, Yunho; Pisarenko, Aleksey; Trenholm, Rebecca A; von Gunten, Urs; Wert, Eric C; Snyder, Shane A

    2012-12-01

    The performance of ozonation in wastewater depends on water quality and the ability to form hydroxyl radicals (·OH) to meet disinfection or contaminant transformation objectives. Since there are no on-line methods to assess ozone and ·OH exposure in wastewater, many agencies are now embracing indicator frameworks and surrogate monitoring for regulatory compliance. Two of the most promising surrogate parameters for ozone-based treatment of secondary and tertiary wastewater effluents are differential UV(254) absorbance (ΔUV(254)) and total fluorescence (ΔTF). In the current study, empirical correlations for ΔUV(254) and ΔTF were developed for the oxidation of 18 trace organic contaminants (TOrCs), including 1,4-dioxane, atenolol, atrazine, bisphenol A, carbamazepine, diclofenac, gemfibrozil, ibuprofen, meprobamate, naproxen, N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), para-chlorobenzoic acid (pCBA), phenytoin, primidone, sulfamethoxazole, triclosan, trimethoprim, and tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (R(2) = 0.50-0.83) and the inactivation of three microbial surrogates, including Escherichia coli, MS2, and Bacillus subtilis spores (R(2) = 0.46-0.78). Nine wastewaters were tested in laboratory systems, and eight wastewaters were evaluated at pilot- and full-scale. A predictive model for OH exposure based on ΔUV(254) or ΔTF was also proposed.

  2. NOTE: Tumor motion prediction with the diaphragm as a surrogate: a feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cerviño, Laura I.; Jiang, Yan; Sandhu, Ajay; Jiang, Steve B.

    2010-05-01

    We have previously assessed the use of the diaphragm as a surrogate for predicting real-time tumor position with linear models built with training data extracted from the same treatment fraction (Cerviño et al 2009 Phys. Med. Biol. 54 3529-41). However, practical use in the clinical setting requires the capability of predicting tumor position throughout the treatment course using a model built at the beginning of the course. We evaluate the inter-fraction applicability of linear models to predict superior-inferior tumor position based on diaphragm position using 21 fluoroscopic sequences from five lung cancer patients. Tumor position is predicted with models built during the first fluoroscopic sequence of each patient. Other fluoroscopic sets are registered to the first set with five different methods. The mean localization prediction error and maximum error at a 95% confidence level averaged over all patients are found to be 1.2 mm and 2.9 mm, respectively, for bony registration and 1.2 mm and 2.8 mm, respectively, for registration based on the mean position of the tumor in the first two breathing cycles. Other registration methods produce larger prediction errors. In the clinical setting, this prediction error could be added as a margin to the target volume. We therefore conclude that it is feasible to predict lung tumor motion with diaphragm with sufficient accuracy in the clinical setting.

  3. Development and application of a green fluorescent protein (GFP) expressing E. coli O103 surrogate for tracking contamination through grinding and identifying persistent points of contamination

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Objective: To 1.) develop and validate an easily trackable E. coli O157:H7/non-O157 STEC surrogate that can be detected to the same level of sensitivity as E. coli O157:H7; and 2.) apply the trackable surrogate to model contamination passage through grinding and identify points where contamination ...

  4. Evaluation of a bacterial bioluminescence bioassay as a predictive surrogate for mysid chronic estimator tests with produced water

    SciTech Connect

    Korenaga, G.L.; Stine, E.R.; Henry, L.R.

    1995-12-01

    Toxicity limits are appearing more frequently in permits for produced water discharges. A bioluminescent bacteria bioassay has been proposed as a screening tool to predict toxicity in higher organisms, which are more expensive and require longer testing times. Before such a surrogate screen can be used, a correlation must be demonstrated between toxicity in the surrogate and the species of interest. This paper describes tests comparing produced water toxicity in the bioluminescent bacteria test and in the myoid shrimp chronic estimator test, which is frequently required in Gulf of Mexico discharge Under these test conditions, the bacteria test was not adequately predictive of produced water chronic toxicity to the myoid shrimp.

  5. SU-C-BRF-07: A Pattern Fusion Algorithm for Multi-Step Ahead Prediction of Surrogate Motion

    SciTech Connect

    Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogate signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction

  6. Serum creatinine level, a surrogate of muscle mass, predicts mortality in critically ill patients

    PubMed Central

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit

    2016-01-01

    Serum creatinine (SCr) has been widely used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Creatinine generation could be reduced in the setting of low skeletal muscle mass. Thus, SCr has also been used as a surrogate of muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with reduced survival in hospitalized patients, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Recently, studies have demonstrated high mortality in ICU patients with low admission SCr levels, reflecting that low muscle mass or malnutrition, are associated with increased mortality. However, SCr levels can also be influenced by multiple GFR- and non-GFR-related factors including age, diet, exercise, stress, pregnancy, and kidney disease. Imaging techniques, such as computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound, have recently been studied for muscle mass assessment and demonstrated promising data. This article aims to present the perspectives of the uses of SCr and other methods for prediction of muscle mass and outcomes of ICU patients. PMID:27162688

  7. Surrogate molecular markers for IGHV mutational status in chronic lymphocytic leukemia for predicting time to first treatment.

    PubMed

    Morabito, Fortunato; Cutrona, Giovanna; Mosca, Laura; D'Anca, Marianna; Matis, Serena; Gentile, Massimo; Vigna, Ernesto; Colombo, Monica; Recchia, Anna Grazia; Bossio, Sabrina; De Stefano, Laura; Maura, Francesco; Manzoni, Martina; Ilariucci, Fiorella; Consoli, Ugo; Vincelli, Iolanda; Musolino, Caterina; Cortelezzi, Agostino; Molica, Stefano; Ferrarini, Manlio; Neri, Antonino

    2015-08-01

    ZAP-70 is a marker of clinical outcome in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), however its assessment suffers from a lack of standardization consensus. To identify novel markers able to surrogate IGHV mutational status, CD19(+)CD5(+)-B-lymphocytes from 216 patients enrolled in a prospective study (ClinicalTrial.gov Identifier:NCT00917540), underwent gene expression profiling. Samples were split into CLL-Training (n=102) and CLL-Validation (n=114) sets, and an independent supervised analysis for IGHV mutational status was performed considering all genes with gene expression equal or above that of ZAP-70. Thirty-one genes (23 up- and 8 down-regulated) and 23 genes (18 up- and 5 down-regulated) satisfied these criteria in the CLL-Training and CLL-Validation sets, respectively, and 20 common genes (15 up and 5 down) were found to be differentially regulated in both sets. Two (SNORA70F, NRIP1) of the down-regulated and 6 (SEPT10, ZNF667, TGFBR3, MBOAT1, LPL, CRY1) of the up-regulated genes were significantly associated with a reduced risk of disease progression in both sets. Forcing the afore-mentioned genes in a Cox multivariate model together with IGHV mutational status, only CRY1 (HR=2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.9, P=.027) and MBOAT1 (HR=2.1, 95% CI: 1.1-3.7, P=.018) retained their independent prognostic impact, supporting the hypothesis that these genes may potentially act as surrogates for predicting IGHV mutational status.

  8. Jet fuel ignition delay times: Shock tube experiments over wide conditions and surrogate model predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Vasu, Subith S.; Davidson, David F.; Hanson, Ronald K.

    2008-01-15

    Ignition delay times were measured for gas-phase jet fuel (Jet-A and JP-8) in air behind reflected shock waves in a heated high-pressure shock tube. Initial reflected shock conditions were as follows: temperatures of 715-1229 K, pressures of 17-51 atm, equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1, and oxygen concentrations of 10 and 21% in synthetic air. Ignition delay times were measured using sidewall pressure and OH* emission at 306 nm. Longer ignition delay times at low temperatures (715-850 K) were accessed by utilizing driver-gas tailoring methods. Also presented is a review of previous ignition delay time measurements of kerosene-based fuels and recent work on surrogate fuel and kinetic mechanism development. To our knowledge, we report the first gas-phase shock tube ignition delay time data for JP-8, and our measurements for Jet-A are for a broader range of conditions than previously available. Our results have very low scatter and are in excellent agreement with the limited previous shock tube data for Jet-A. Although JP-8 and Jet-A have slightly different compositions, their ignition delay times are very similar. A simple 1/P dependence was found for ignition delay times from 874 to 1220 K for the pressure range studied for both fuels. Ignition delay time variations with equivalence ratio and oxygen concentration were also investigated. The new experimental results were compared with predictions of several kinetic mechanisms, using different jet fuel surrogate mixtures. (author)

  9. Predictive model for inactivation of feline calicivirus, a norovirus surrogate, by heat and high hydrostatic pressure.

    PubMed

    Buckow, Roman; Isbarn, Sonja; Knorr, Dietrich; Heinz, Volker; Lehmacher, Anselm

    2008-02-01

    Noroviruses, which are members of the Caliciviridae family, represent the leading cause of nonbacterial gastroenteritis in developed countries; such norovirus infections result in high economic costs for health protection. Person-to-person contact, contaminated water, and foods, especially raw shellfish, vegetables, and fruits, can transmit noroviruses. We inactivated feline calicivirus, a surrogate for the nonculturable norovirus, in cell culture medium and mineral water by heat and high hydrostatic pressure. Incubation at ambient pressure and 75 degrees C for 2 min as well as treatment at 450 MPa and 15 degrees C for 1 min inactivated more than 7 log10 PFU of calicivirus per ml in cell culture medium or mineral water. The heat and pressure time-inactivation curves obtained with the calicivirus showed tailing in the logarithmic scale. Modeling by nth-order kinetics of the virus inactivation was successful in predicting the inactivation of the infective virus particles. The developed model enables the prediction of the calicivirus reduction in response to pressures up to 500 MPa, temperatures ranging from 5 to 75 degrees C, and various treatment times. We suggest high pressure for processing of foods to reduce the health threat posed by noroviruses.

  10. A Kriging surrogate model coupled in simulation-optimization approach for identifying release history of groundwater sources.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ying; Lu, Wenxi; Xiao, Chuanning

    2016-01-01

    As the incidence frequency of groundwater pollution increases, many methods that identify source characteristics of pollutants are being developed. In this study, a simulation-optimization approach was applied to determine the duration and magnitude of pollutant sources. Such problems are time consuming because thousands of simulation models are required to run the optimization model. To address this challenge, the Kriging surrogate model was proposed to increase computational efficiency. Accuracy, time consumption, and the robustness of the Kriging model were tested on both homogenous and non-uniform media, as well as steady-state and transient flow and transport conditions. The results of three hypothetical cases demonstrate that the Kriging model has the ability to solve groundwater contaminant source problems that could occur during field site source identification problems with a high degree of accuracy and short computation times and is thus very robust.

  11. Individual Identifiability Predicts Population Identifiability in Forensic Microsatellite Markers.

    PubMed

    Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B; Edge, Michael D; Kim, Jaehee; Li, Jun Z; Rosenberg, Noah A

    2016-04-01

    Highly polymorphic genetic markers with significant potential for distinguishing individual identity are used as a standard tool in forensic testing [1, 2]. At the same time, population-genetic studies have suggested that genetically diverse markers with high individual identifiability also confer information about genetic ancestry [3-6]. The dual influence of polymorphism levels on ancestry inference and forensic desirability suggests that forensically useful marker sets with high levels of individual identifiability might also possess substantial ancestry information. We study a standard forensic marker set-the 13 CODIS loci used in the United States and elsewhere [2, 7-9]-together with 779 additional microsatellites [10], using direct population structure inference to test whether markers with substantial individual identifiability also produce considerable information about ancestry. Despite having been selected for individual identification and not for ancestry inference [11], the CODIS markers generate nontrivial model-based clustering patterns similar to those of other sets of 13 tetranucleotide microsatellites. Although the CODIS markers have relatively low values of the F(ST) divergence statistic, their high heterozygosities produce greater ancestry inference potential than is possessed by less heterozygous marker sets. More generally, we observe that marker sets with greater individual identifiability also tend toward greater population identifiability. We conclude that population identifiability regularly follows as a byproduct of the use of highly polymorphic forensic markers. Our findings have implications for the design of new forensic marker sets and for evaluations of the extent to which individual characteristics beyond identification might be predicted from current and future forensic data.

  12. Suitability of Organic Matter Surrogates to Predict Trihalomethane Formation in Drinking Water Sources

    PubMed Central

    Pifer, Ashley D.; Fairey, Julian L.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Broadly applicable disinfection by-product (DBP) precursor surrogate parameters could be leveraged at drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) to curb formation of regulated DBPs, such as trihalomethanes (THMs). In this study, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (UV254), fluorescence excitation/emission wavelength pairs (IEx/Em), and the maximum fluorescence intensities (FMAX) of components from parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis were evaluated as total THM formation potential (TTHMFP) precursor surrogate parameters. A diverse set of source waters from eleven DWTPs located within watersheds underlain by six different soil orders were coagulated with alum at pH 6, 7, and 8, resulting in 44 sample waters. DOC, UV254, IEx/Em, and FMAX values were measured to characterize dissolved organic matter in raw and treated waters and THMs were quantified following formation potential tests with free chlorine. For the 44 sample waters, the linear TTHMFP correlation with UV254 was stronger (r2=0.89) than I240/562 (r2=0.81, the strongest surrogate parameter from excitation/emission matrix pair picking), FMAX from a humic/fulvic acid-like PARAFAC component (r2=0.78), and DOC (r2=0.75). Results indicate that UV254 was the most accurate TTHMFP precursor surrogate parameter assessed for a diverse group of raw and alum-coagulated waters. PMID:24669183

  13. A novel 3D high-content assay identifies compounds that prevent fibroblast invasion into tissue surrogates.

    PubMed

    Wenzel, Carsten; Otto, Saskia; Prechtl, Stefan; Parczyk, Karsten; Steigemann, Patrick

    2015-11-15

    Invasion processes underlie or accompany several pathological processes but only a limited number of high-throughput capable phenotypic models exist to test anti-invasive compounds in vitro. We here evaluated 3D co-cultures as a high-content phenotypic screening system for fibrotic invasive processes. 3D multicellular spheroids were used as living tissue surrogates in co-culture with fluorescently labeled lung fibroblasts to monitor invasion processes by automated microscopy. This setup was used to screen a compound library containing 480 known bioactive substances. Identified hits prevented fibroblast invasion and could be subdivided into two hit classes. First, Prostaglandins were shown to prevent fibroblast invasion, most likely mediated by the prostaglandin EP2 receptor and generation of cAMP. Additionally, Rho-associated protein kinase (ROCK) inhibitors prevented fibroblast invasion, possibly by inactivation of myosin II. Importantly, both Prostaglandins and ROCK inhibitors are potential treatment options shown to be effective in in vitro and in vivo models of fibrotic diseases. This validates the presented novel phenotypic screening approach for the evaluation of potential inhibitors and the identification of novel compounds with activity in diseases that are associated with fibroblast invasion.

  14. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guang; Arora, Naveen C.; Xie, Huchen; Ning, Holly; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W.

    2009-04-01

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in ciné mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 ± 0.005, p < 0.0001) as well as a linear relationship (slope = 1.027 ± 0.061, R2 = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 ± 0.092, R2 = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 ± 0.44 and 0.82 ± 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  15. Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect

    Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2011-09-01

    In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on central tendencies. We frame the climate change problem and its associated risks in a similar manner. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We therefore propose the use of specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) for the purpose of exploring the probability law of various climate variables of interest. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, e.g., the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), or to a collection of outputs from a General Circulation Model (GCM), e.g., the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its predecessors. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework is developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, in the use of the proposed approach to assess these risks.

  16. An adaptive fuzzy prediction model for real time tumor tracking in radiotherapy via external surrogates.

    PubMed

    Esmaili Torshabi, Ahmad; Riboldi, Marco; Imani Fooladi, Abbas Ali; Modarres Mosalla, Seyed Mehdi; Baroni, Guido

    2013-01-07

    In the radiation treatment of moving targets with external surrogates, information on tumor position in real time can be extracted by using accurate correlation models. A fuzzy environment is proposed here to correlate input surrogate data with tumor motion estimates in real time. In this study, two different data clustering approaches were analyzed due to their substantial effects on the fuzzy modeler performance. Moreover, a comparative investigation was performed on two fuzzy-based and one neuro-fuzzy-based inference systems with respect to state-of-the-art models. Finally, due to the intrinsic interpatient variability in fuzzy models' performance, a model selectivity algorithm was proposed to select an adaptive fuzzy modeler on a case-by-case basis. The performance of multiple and adaptive fuzzy logic models were retrospectively tested in 20 patients treated with CyberKnife real-time tumor tracking. Final results show that activating adequate model selection of our fuzzy-based modeler can significantly reduce tumor tracking errors.

  17. Surrogate gas prediction model as a proxy for Δ14C-based measurements of fossil fuel CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coakley, Kevin J.; Miller, John B.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Sweeney, Colm; Miller, Ben R.

    2016-06-01

    The measured 14C:12C isotopic ratio of atmospheric CO2 (and its associated derived Δ14C value) is an ideal tracer for determination of the fossil fuel derived CO2 enhancement contributing to any atmospheric CO2 measurement (Cff). Given enough such measurements, independent top-down estimation of U.S. fossil fuel CO2 emissions should be possible. However, the number of Δ14C measurements is presently constrained by cost, available sample volume, and availability of mass spectrometer measurement facilities. Δ14C is therefore measured in just a small fraction of samples obtained by flask air sampling networks around the world. Here we develop a projection pursuit regression (PPR) model to predict Cff as a function of multiple surrogate gases acquired within the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN). The surrogates consist of measured enhancements of various anthropogenic trace gases, including CO, SF6, and halocarbon and hydrocarbon acquired in vertical airborne sampling profiles near Cape May, NJ and Portsmouth, NH from 2005 to 2010. Model performance for these sites is quantified based on predicted values corresponding to test data excluded from the model building process. Chi-square hypothesis test analysis indicates that these predictions and corresponding observations are consistent given our uncertainty budget which accounts for random effects and one particular systematic effect. However, quantification of the combined uncertainty of the prediction due to all relevant systematic effects is difficult because of the limited range of the observations and their relatively high fractional uncertainties at the sampling sites considered here. To account for the possibility of additional systematic effects, we incorporate another component of uncertainty into our budget. Expanding the number of Δ14C measurements in the NOAA GGGRN and building new PPR models at additional sites would improve our understanding of

  18. Identifying predictive factors in melanoma progression.

    PubMed

    Dabrowska, D M; Elashoff, R M; Ho, W; Morton, D L

    1998-01-01

    Identification of risk factors is a fundamental goal of melanoma studies. The current understanding of melanoma progression is based primarily on two-stage modeling. A multistate Markov chain process combined with Cox proportional hazard regression is used to model the melanoma progression. The model is applied to 3,434 patients initially diagnosed as AJCC stage I or stage II. Parameter estimates are obtained using Cox regression and supplemented by plots of survival probabilities. Age is associated with increased risk of progression from stage I, II to stage III and from stage III to stage IV. Males experienced an increased risk of stage I, II to stage III progression. Primary tumor located on extremities decreased the risk of all transitions. Clark's level of invasion >III and Breslow's depth >1 mm increased the risk of progression from stage I, II to stage III and stage IV. The following interactions among the prognostic factors were identified for the first time in this research: interaction of age and gender in progression from stage I, II to stage III; interactions of level and depth and site by gender were found in the progression from stage I, II to stage III; interaction of site and gender in progression from stage III to stage IV and stage IV to death. Also we identified primary site as a new prognostic factor for the progression from stage IV to death. The study employed a multistate model in order to identify prognostic factors relevant for disease progression. The unique feature is the modeling of interactions among the prognostic factors and their identification. PMID:9538154

  19. Investigation of a breathing surrogate prediction algorithm for prospective pulmonary gating

    SciTech Connect

    White, Benjamin M.; Low, Daniel A.; Zhao Tianyu; Wuenschel, Sara; Lu, Wei; Lamb, James M.; Mutic, Sasa; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-03-15

    Purpose: A major challenge of four dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) in treatment planning and delivery has been the lack of respiration amplitude and phase reproducibility during image acquisition. The implementation of a prospective gating algorithm would ensure that images would be acquired only during user-specified breathing phases. This study describes the development and testing of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for human respiratory phase prediction under quiet respiration conditions. Methods: A total of 47 4DCT patient datasets and synchronized respiration records was utilized in this study. Three datasets were used in model development and were removed from further evaluation of the ARMA model. The remaining 44 patient datasets were evaluated with the ARMA model for prediction time steps from 50 to 1000 ms in increments of 50 and 100 ms. Thirty-five of these datasets were further used to provide a comparison between the proposed ARMA model and a commercial algorithm with a prediction time step of 240 ms. Results: The optimal number of parameters for the ARMA model was based on three datasets reserved for model development. Prediction error was found to increase as the prediction time step increased. The minimum prediction time step required for prospective gating was selected to be half of the gantry rotation period. The maximum prediction time step with a conservative 95% confidence criterion was found to be 0.3 s. The ARMA model predicted peak inhalation and peak exhalation phases significantly better than the commercial algorithm. Furthermore, the commercial algorithm had numerous instances of missed breath cycles and falsely predicted breath cycles, while the proposed model did not have these errors. Conclusions: An ARMA model has been successfully applied to predict human respiratory phase occurrence. For a typical CT scanner gantry rotation period of 0.4 s (0.2 s prediction time step), the absolute error was relatively small, 0

  20. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V.; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Background Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Results Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not

  1. Handgrip dynamometry: a surrogate marker of malnutrition to predict the prognosis in alcoholic liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Gaikwad, Nitin Rangrao; Gupta, Sudhir Jagdishprasad; Samarth, Amol Rajendra; Sankalecha, Tushar Hiralal

    2016-01-01

    Background The aim of the study was to determine the utility of handgrip dynamometry (HGD) in predicting short term mortality and complications in alcoholic liver disease. Methods Patients with alcoholic liver disease were included and nutritional assessment was done using the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), HGD and other conventional parameters. Mortality rates and complications were compared to nutritional status. Results 80 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 43.06±10.03 years. 69 patients survived and 11 patients died within the 3 month study duration. Handgrip strength (HGS) was higher in SGA A (28.76±5.48 kg) than SGA B (22.43±4.95 kg) and SGA C (16.78±3.83 kg) (P=<0.001). Number of complications including spontaneous bacterial Peritonitis, gastrointestinal bleeding and encephalopathy in SGA C group were 66.66%, in SGA B 20.75% and SGA A 10%. Mean HGS was significantly higher in the survivors (24.23±5.86) compared to non-survivors (18.04±4.82) (P=0.0011). There was a strong negative correlation between the HGS and Child-Pugh score (P=<0.0012). Multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the risk factors for death showed handgrip to be in the suggestive significance range (P=0.072). The sensitivity of HGS was 88.41% in predicting short term mortality. Conclusions HGS correlates with Child-Pugh score in predicting short term mortality. HGD is a simple, inexpensive and sensitive tool for assessing the nutritional status in alcoholic liver disease and can reliably predict its complications and survival.

  2. Quality of Communication in the ICU and Surrogate's Understanding of Prognosis

    PubMed Central

    Chiarchiaro, Jared; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Arnold, Robert M.; White, Douglas B.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Although misperceptions about prognosis by surrogates in ICUs are common and influence treatment decisions, there is no validated, practical way to measure the effectiveness of prognostic communication. Surrogates' subjective ratings of quality of communication have been used in other domains as markers of effectiveness of communication. We sought to determine whether surrogates' subjective ratings of the quality of prognostic communication predicts accurate expectation about prognosis by surrogates. Design We performed a cross sectional cohort study. Surrogates rated the quality of prognostic communication by survey. Physicians and surrogates gave their percentage estimate of patient survival on ICU day 3 on a 0-100 probability scale. We defined discordance about prognosis as a difference in the physician's and surrogate's estimates of ≥ +/-20%. We used multi-level logistic regression modeling to account for clustering under physicians and patients and adjust for confounders. Patients 275 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome at high risk of death or severe functional impairment, their 546 surrogate decision makers, and their 150 physicians. Measurements and Main Results There was no predictive utility of surrogates' ratings of the quality of communication about prognosis to identify inaccurate expectations about prognosis. (OR 1.04 +/- 0.07, p 0.54). Surrogates' subjective ratings of the quality of communication about prognosis were high, as assessed with a variety of questions. Discordant prognostic estimates were present in 63.5% (95% CI: 59.0%-67.9%) of physician-surrogate pairs. Conclusions Although most surrogates rate the quality of prognostic communication highly, inaccurate expectations about prognosis are common among surrogates. Surrogates' ratings of the quality of prognostic communication do not reliably predict an accurate expectation about prognosis. PMID:25687030

  3. Prediction of naphthenic acid species degradation by kinetic and surrogate models during the ozonation of oil sands process-affected water.

    PubMed

    Islam, Md Shahinoor; Moreira, Jesús; Chelme-Ayala, Pamela; Gamal El-Din, Mohamed

    2014-09-15

    Oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) is a complex mixture of organic and inorganic contaminants, and suspended solids, generated by the oil sands industry during the bitumen extraction process. OSPW contains a large number of structurally diverse organic compounds, and due to variability of the water quality of different OSPW matrices, there is a need to select a group of easily measured surrogate parameters for monitoring and treatment process control. In this study, kinetic and surrogate correlation models were developed to predict the degradation of naphthenic acids (NAs) species during the ozonation of OSPW. Additionally, the speciation and distribution of classical and oxidized NA species in raw and ozonated OSPW were also examined. The structure-reactivity of NA species indicated that the reactivity of individual NA species increased as the carbon and hydrogen deficiency numbers increased. The kinetic parameters obtained in this study allowed calculating the evolution of the concentrations of the acid-extractable fraction (AEF), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and NA distributions for a given ozonation process. High correlations between the AEF and COD and NA species were found, suggesting that AEF and COD can be used as surrogate parameters to predict the degradation of NAs during the ozonation of OSPW.

  4. Projection in surrogate decisions about life-sustaining medical treatments.

    PubMed

    Fagerlin, A; Ditto, P H; Danks, J H; Houts, R M; Smucker, W D

    2001-05-01

    To honor the wishes of an incapacitated patient, surrogate decision makers must predict the treatment decisions patients would make for themselves if able. Social psychological research, however, suggests that surrogates' own treatment preferences may influence their predictions of others' preferences. In 2 studies (1 involving 60 college student surrogates and a parent, the other involving 361 elderly outpatients and their chosen surrogate decision maker), surrogates predicted whether a close other would want life-sustaining treatment in hypothetical end-of-life scenarios and stated their own treatment preferences in the same scenarios. Surrogate predictions more closely resembled surrogates' own treatment wishes than they did the wishes of the individual they were trying to predict. Although the majority of prediction errors reflected inaccurate use of surrogates' own treatment preferences, projection was also found to result in accurate prediction more often than counterprojective predictions. The rationality and accuracy of projection in surrogate decision making is discussed. PMID:11403214

  5. Surrogate biochemistry: use of Escherichia coli to identify plant cDNAs that impact metabolic engineering of carotenoid accumulation.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, C E; Cervantes-Cervantes, M; Wurtzel, E T

    2003-02-01

    Carotenoids synthesized in plants but not animals are essential for human nutrition. Therefore, ongoing efforts to metabolically engineer plants for improved carotenoid content benefit from the identification of genes that affect carotenoid accumulation, possibly highlighting potential challenges when pyramiding traits represented by multiple biosynthetic pathways. We employed a heterologous bacterial system to screen for maize cDNAs encoding products that alter carotenoid accumulation either positively or negatively. Genes encoding carotenoid biosynthetic enzymes from the bacterium Erwinia uredovora were introduced into Escherichia coli cells that were subsequently transfected with a maize endosperm cDNA expression library; and these doubly transformed cells were then screened for altered carotenoid accumulation. DNA sequencing and characterization of one cDNA class conferring increased carotenoid content led to the identification of maize cDNAs encoding isopentenyl diphosphate isomerase. A cDNA that caused a reduced carotenoid content in E. coli was also identified. Based on DNA sequence analysis, DNA hybridization, and further functional testing, this latter cDNA was found to encode the small subunit of ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase, a rate-controlling enzyme in starch biosynthesis that has been of interest for enhancing plant starch content.

  6. A comparison of lung motion measured using implanted electromagnetic transponders and motion algorithmically predicted using external surrogates as an alternative to respiratory correlated CT imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechleiter, Kristen M.; Low, Daniel A.; Chaudhari, Amir; Lu, Wei; Hubenschmidt, James P.; Mayse, Martin L.; Dimmer, Steven C.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Parikh, Parag J.

    2007-03-01

    Three-dimensional volumetric imaging correlated with respiration (4DCT) typically utilizes external breathing surrogates and phase-based models to determine lung tissue motion. However, 4DCT requires time consuming post-processing and the relationship between external breathing surrogates and lung tissue motion is not clearly defined. This study compares algorithms using external respiratory motion surrogates as predictors of internal lung motion tracked in real-time by electromagnetic transponders (Calypso® Medical Technologies) implanted in a canine model. Simultaneous spirometry, bellows, and transponder positions measurements were acquired during free breathing and variable ventilation respiratory patterns. Functions of phase, amplitude, tidal volume, and airflow were examined by least-squares regression analysis to determine which algorithm provided the best estimate of internal motion. The cosine phase model performed the worst of all models analyzed (R2 = 31.6%, free breathing, and R2 = 14.9%, variable ventilation). All algorithms performed better during free breathing than during variable ventilation measurements. The 5D model of tidal volume and airflow predicted transponder location better than amplitude or either of the two phasebased models analyzed, with correlation coefficients of 66.1% and 64.4% for free breathing and variable ventilation respectively. Real-time implanted transponder based measurements provide a direct method for determining lung tissue location. Current phase-based or amplitude-based respiratory motion algorithms cannot as accurately predict lung tissue motion in an irregularly breathing subject as a model including tidal volume and airflow. Further work is necessary to quantify the long term stability of prediction capabilities using amplitude and phase based algorithms for multiple lung tumor positions over time.

  7. Protein signatures as potential surrogate biomarkers for stratification and prediction of treatment response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients

    PubMed Central

    Alaiya, Ayodele A.; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Shinwari, Zakia; Almohareb, Fahad; Malhan, Hafiz; Alzahrani, Hazzaa; Owaidah, Tarek; Fox, Jonathan; Alsharif, Fahad; Mohamed, Said Y.; Rasheed, Walid; Aldawsari, Ghuzayel; Hanbali, Amr; Ahmed, Syed Osman; Chaudhri, Naeem

    2016-01-01

    There is unmet need for prediction of treatment response for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. The present study aims to identify disease-specific/disease-associated protein biomarkers detectable in bone marrow and peripheral blood for objective prediction of individual’s best treatment options and prognostic monitoring of CML patients. Bone marrow plasma (BMP) and peripheral blood plasma (PBP) samples from newly-diagnosed chronic-phase CML patients were subjected to expression-proteomics using quantitative two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and label-free liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Analysis of 2-DE protein fingerprints preceding therapy commencement accurately predicts 13 individuals that achieved major molecular response (MMR) at 6 months from 12 subjects without MMR (No-MMR). Results were independently validated using LC-MS/MS analysis of BMP and PBP from patients that have more than 24 months followed-up. One hundred and sixty-four and 138 proteins with significant differential expression profiles were identified from PBP and BMP, respectively and only 54 proteins overlap between the two datasets. The protein panels also discriminates accurately patients that stay on imatinib treatment from patients ultimately needing alternative treatment. Among the identified proteins are TYRO3, a member of TAM family of receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs), the S100A8, and MYC and all of which have been implicated in CML. Our findings indicate analyses of a panel of protein signatures is capable of objective prediction of molecular response and therapy choice for CML patients at diagnosis as ‘personalized-medicine-model’. PMID:27573699

  8. Protein signatures as potential surrogate biomarkers for stratification and prediction of treatment response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients.

    PubMed

    Alaiya, Ayodele A; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Shinwari, Zakia; Almohareb, Fahad; Malhan, Hafiz; Alzahrani, Hazzaa; Owaidah, Tarek; Fox, Jonathan; Alsharif, Fahad; Mohamed, Said Y; Rasheed, Walid; Aldawsari, Ghuzayel; Hanbali, Amr; Ahmed, Syed Osman; Chaudhri, Naeem

    2016-09-01

    There is unmet need for prediction of treatment response for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. The present study aims to identify disease-specific/disease-associated protein biomarkers detectable in bone marrow and peripheral blood for objective prediction of individual's best treatment options and prognostic monitoring of CML patients. Bone marrow plasma (BMP) and peripheral blood plasma (PBP) samples from newly-diagnosed chronic-phase CML patients were subjected to expression-proteomics using quantitative two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and label-free liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Analysis of 2-DE protein fingerprints preceding therapy commencement accurately predicts 13 individuals that achieved major molecular response (MMR) at 6 months from 12 subjects without MMR (No-MMR). Results were independently validated using LC-MS/MS analysis of BMP and PBP from patients that have more than 24 months followed-up. One hundred and sixty-four and 138 proteins with significant differential expression profiles were identified from PBP and BMP, respectively and only 54 proteins overlap between the two datasets. The protein panels also discriminates accurately patients that stay on imatinib treatment from patients ultimately needing alternative treatment. Among the identified proteins are TYRO3, a member of TAM family of receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs), the S100A8, and MYC and all of which have been implicated in CML. Our findings indicate analyses of a panel of protein signatures is capable of objective prediction of molecular response and therapy choice for CML patients at diagnosis as 'personalized-medicine-model'. PMID:27573699

  9. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions.

  10. Identifying functional sites based on prediction of charged group behavior.

    PubMed

    Ondrechen, Mary Jo

    2004-09-01

    This protocol describes the implementation and interpretation of THEMATICS, a simple computational predictor of functional information for proteins from the three-dimensional structure. This method is based on the computation of the electrical potential function for the protein and the calculation of the predicted titration curves for each of the titratable groups in the protein. While most of the titratable residues in a protein have predicted titration behavior that fits the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation, the ionizable residues in the active site generally deviate dramatically from the typical behavior. From the calculated titration curves, one identifies those residues that deviate significantly from Henderson-Hasselbalch behavior. A cluster of two or more of such deviant titratable residues in physical proximity is a reliable predictor of active-site location.

  11. Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2016-01-01

    Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms. PMID:26961965

  12. Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2016-03-01

    Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms.

  13. Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis.

    PubMed

    Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2016-01-01

    Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network's probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms. PMID:26961965

  14. Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis.

    PubMed

    Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2016-03-10

    Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network's probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms.

  15. A new framework for selecting environmental surrogates.

    PubMed

    Lindenmayer, David; Pierson, Jennifer; Barton, Philip; Beger, Maria; Branquinho, Cristina; Calhoun, Aram; Caro, Tim; Greig, Hamish; Gross, John; Heino, Jani; Hunter, Malcolm; Lane, Peter; Longo, Catherine; Martin, Kathy; McDowell, William H; Mellin, Camille; Salo, Hanna; Tulloch, Ayesha; Westgate, Martin

    2015-12-15

    Surrogate concepts are used in all sub-disciplines of environmental science. However, controversy remains regarding the extent to which surrogates are useful for resolving environmental problems. Here, we argue that conflicts about the utility of surrogates (and the related concepts of indicators and proxies) often reflect context-specific differences in trade-offs between measurement accuracy and practical constraints. By examining different approaches for selecting and applying surrogates, we identify five trade-offs that correspond to key points of contention in the application of surrogates. We then present an 8-step Adaptive Surrogacy Framework that incorporates cross-disciplinary perspectives from a wide spectrum of the environmental sciences, aiming to unify surrogate concepts across disciplines and applications. Our synthesis of the science of surrogates is intended as a first step towards fully leveraging knowledge accumulated across disciplines, thus consolidating lessons learned so that they may be accessible to all those operating in different fields, yet facing similar hurdles.

  16. A new framework for selecting environmental surrogates.

    PubMed

    Lindenmayer, David; Pierson, Jennifer; Barton, Philip; Beger, Maria; Branquinho, Cristina; Calhoun, Aram; Caro, Tim; Greig, Hamish; Gross, John; Heino, Jani; Hunter, Malcolm; Lane, Peter; Longo, Catherine; Martin, Kathy; McDowell, William H; Mellin, Camille; Salo, Hanna; Tulloch, Ayesha; Westgate, Martin

    2015-12-15

    Surrogate concepts are used in all sub-disciplines of environmental science. However, controversy remains regarding the extent to which surrogates are useful for resolving environmental problems. Here, we argue that conflicts about the utility of surrogates (and the related concepts of indicators and proxies) often reflect context-specific differences in trade-offs between measurement accuracy and practical constraints. By examining different approaches for selecting and applying surrogates, we identify five trade-offs that correspond to key points of contention in the application of surrogates. We then present an 8-step Adaptive Surrogacy Framework that incorporates cross-disciplinary perspectives from a wide spectrum of the environmental sciences, aiming to unify surrogate concepts across disciplines and applications. Our synthesis of the science of surrogates is intended as a first step towards fully leveraging knowledge accumulated across disciplines, thus consolidating lessons learned so that they may be accessible to all those operating in different fields, yet facing similar hurdles. PMID:26298409

  17. Subarachnoid hemorrhage admissions retrospectively identified using a prediction model

    PubMed Central

    McIntyre, Lauralyn; Fergusson, Dean; Turgeon, Alexis; dos Santos, Marlise P.; Lum, Cheemun; Chassé, Michaël; Sinclair, John; Forster, Alan; van Walraven, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To create an accurate prediction model using variables collected in widely available health administrative data records to identify hospitalizations for primary subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: A previously established complete cohort of consecutive primary SAH patients was combined with a random sample of control hospitalizations. Chi-square recursive partitioning was used to derive and internally validate a model to predict the probability that a patient had primary SAH (due to aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation) using health administrative data. Results: A total of 10,322 hospitalizations with 631 having primary SAH (6.1%) were included in the study (5,122 derivation, 5,200 validation). In the validation patients, our recursive partitioning algorithm had a sensitivity of 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93.9–98.0), a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.6–99.9), and a positive likelihood ratio of 483 (95% CI 254–879). In this population, patients meeting criteria for the algorithm had a probability of 45% of truly having primary SAH. Conclusions: Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to accurately identify hospitalized patients with a high probability of having a primary SAH. This algorithm may allow, upon validation, an easy and accurate method to create validated cohorts of primary SAH from either ruptured aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation. PMID:27629096

  18. Identifying state-dependent model error in numerical weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moskaitis, J.; Hansen, J.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.

    2003-04-01

    Model forecasts of complex systems such as the atmosphere lose predictive skill because of two different sources of error: initial conditions error and model error. While much study has been done to determine the nature and consequences of initial conditions error in operational forecast models, relatively little has been done to identify the source of model error and to quantify the effects of model error on forecasts. Here, we attempt to "disentangle" model error from initial conditions error by applying a diagnostic tool in a simple model framework to identify poor forecasts for which model error is likely responsible. The diagnostic is based on the premise that for a perfect ensemble forecast, verification should fall outside the range of ensemble forecast states only a small percentage of the time, according to the size of the ensemble. Identifying these outlier verifications and comparing the statistics of their occurrence to those of a perfect ensemble can tell us about the role of model error in a quantitative, state-dependent manner. The same diagnostic is applied to operational NWP models to quantify the role of model error in poor forecasts (see companion paper by Toth et al.). From these results, we can infer the atmospheric processes the model cannot adequately simulate.

  19. A novel anti-Vpre-B antibody identifies immunoglobulin-surrogate receptors on the surface of human pro-B cells

    PubMed Central

    1996-01-01

    Vpre-B and lambda 5 genes, respectively, encode V-like and C-like domains of a surrogate immunoglobulin light chain (psi L). Such psi L complex is expressed in early progenitor B (pro-B) cells, before conventional immunoglobulin heavy (microH) and light (L) chains are produced. We raised a wide panel of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against soluble recombinant Vpre-B proteins to study early events in human B cell development. One of these antibodies, B-MAD688, labeled surrogate Ig-complexes on the surface of microH- pro-B cell lines and normal bone marrow cells in immunofluorescence assays. Immunoprecipitations using surface-labeled pro-B cells and B-MAD688 mAb indicated that human psi L is associated with high molecular weight components homologous to the surrogate heavy (psi H) chains described in mouse. Using B-MAD688 and SLC2 mAbs, we were able to distinguish between psi H psi L and microH psi L complexes on the surface of human pro-B and later precursor, pre-B, cells. The finding of psi H psi L complexes in mouse and man lead us to hypothesize a role for psi H- containing receptors in B cell development. PMID:8676092

  20. Use of surrogate outcomes in US FDA drug approvals, 2003–2012: a survey

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Tsung; Hsu, Yea-Jen; Fain, Kevin M; Boyd, Cynthia M; Holbrook, Janet T; Puhan, Milo A

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate, across a spectrum of diseases, how often surrogate outcomes are used as a basis for drug approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and whether and how the rationale for using treatment effects on surrogates as predictors of treatment effects on patient-centred outcomes is discussed. Study design and setting We used the Drugs@FDA website to identify drug approvals produced from 2003 to 2012 by the FDA. We focused on four diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), type 1 or 2 diabetes, glaucoma and osteoporosis) for which surrogates are commonly used in trials. We reviewed the drug labels and medical reviews to provide empirical evidence on how surrogate outcomes are handled by the FDA. Results Of 1043 approvals screened, 58 (6%) were for the four diseases of interest. Most drugs for COPD (7/9, 78%), diabetes (26/26, 100%) and glaucoma (9/9, 100%) were approved based on surrogates while for osteoporosis, most drugs (10/14, 71%) were also approved for patient-centred outcomes (fractures). The rationale for using surrogates was discussed in 11 of the 43 (26%) drug approvals based on surrogates. In these drug approvals, we found drug approvals for diabetes are more likely than the other examined conditions to contain a discussion of trial evidence demonstrating that treatment effects on surrogate outcomes predict treatment effects on patient-centred outcomes. Conclusions Our results suggest that the FDA did not use a consistent approach to address surrogates in assessing the benefits and harms of drugs for COPD, type 1 or 2 diabetes, glaucoma and osteoporosis. For evaluating new drugs, patient-centred outcomes should be chosen whenever possible. If the use of surrogate outcomes is necessary, then a consistent approach is important to review the evidence for surrogacy and consider surrogate's usage in the treatment and population under study. PMID:26614616

  1. Identifying predictive morphologic features of malignancy in eyelid lesions

    PubMed Central

    Leung, Christina; Johnson, Davin; Pang, Renee; Kratky, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective To determine features of eyelid lesions most predictive of malignancy, and to design a key to assist general practitioners in the triaging of such lesions. Design Prospective observational study. Setting Department of Ophthalmology at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont. Participants A total of 199 consecutive periocular lesions requiring biopsy or excision were included. Main outcome measures First, potential features suggestive of malignancy for eyelid lesions were identified based on a survey sent to Canadian oculoplastic surgeons. The sensitivity, specificity, and odds ratios (ORs) of these features were then determined using 199 consecutive photographed eyelid lesions of patients who presented to the Department of Ophthalmology and underwent biopsy or excision. A triage key was then created based on the features with the highest ORs, and it was pilot-tested by a group of medical students. Results Of the 199 lesions included, 161 (80.9%) were benign and 38 (19.1%) were malignant. The 3 features with the highest ORs in predicting malignancy were infiltration (OR = 18.2, P < .01), ulceration (OR = 14.7, P < .01), and loss of eyelashes (OR = 6.0, P < .01). The acronym LUI (loss of eyelashes, ulceration, infiltration) was created to assist in memory recall. After watching a video describing the LUI triage key, the mean total score of a group of medical students for correctly identifying malignant lesions increased from 46% to 70% (P < .001). Conclusion Differentiating benign from malignant eyelid lesions can be difficult even for experienced physicians. The LUI triage key provides physicians with an evidence-based, easy-to-remember system for assisting in the triaging of these lesions. PMID:25756148

  2. 34 CFR 300.519 - Surrogate parents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Surrogate parents. 300.519 Section 300.519 Education... DISABILITIES Procedural Safeguards Due Process Procedures for Parents and Children § 300.519 Surrogate parents... parent (as defined in § 300.30) can be identified; (2) The public agency, after reasonable...

  3. Use of a simple anthropometric measurement to predict birth weight. WHO Collaborative Study of Birth Weight Surrogates.

    PubMed Central

    1993-01-01

    Low-birth-weight babies are most at risk of infant mortality. Unfortunately, in many developing countries it is not possible to weigh babies accurately because of the lack of robust scales. This article describes the results of a WHO Collaborative Study to investigate whether birth weight can be predicted accurately using chest circumference and/or arm circumference. The implications of the results for paediatric practice in developing countries are discussed. PMID:8490977

  4. Feasibility of High-Power Diode Laser Array Surrogate to Support Development of Predictive Laser Lethality Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lowdermilk, W H; Rubenchik, A M; Springer, H K

    2011-01-13

    Predictive modeling and simulation of high power laser-target interactions is sufficiently undeveloped that full-scale, field testing is required to assess lethality of military directed-energy (DE) systems. The cost and complexity of such testing programs severely limit the ability to vary and optimize parameters of the interaction. Thus development of advanced simulation tools, validated by experiments under well-controlled and diagnosed laboratory conditions that are able to provide detailed physics insight into the laser-target interaction and reduce requirements for full-scale testing will accelerate development of DE weapon systems. The ultimate goal is a comprehensive end-to-end simulation capability, from targeting and firing the laser system through laser-target interaction and dispersal of target debris; a 'Stockpile Science' - like capability for DE weapon systems. To support development of advanced modeling and simulation tools requires laboratory experiments to generate laser-target interaction data. Until now, to make relevant measurements required construction and operation of very high power and complex lasers, which are themselves costly and often unique devices, operating in dedicated facilities that don't permit experiments on targets containing energetic materials. High power diode laser arrays, pioneered by LLNL, provide a way to circumvent this limitation, as such arrays capable of delivering irradiances characteristic of De weapon requires are self-contained, compact, light weight and thus easily transportable to facilities, such as the High Explosives Applications Facility (HEAF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) where testing with energetic materials can be performed. The purpose of this study was to establish the feasibility of using such arrays to support future development of advanced laser lethality and vulnerability simulation codes through providing data for materials characterization and laser-material interaction

  5. Proteomic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum induced alterations in humans from different endemic regions of India to decipher malaria pathogenesis and identify surrogate markers of severity.

    PubMed

    Ray, Sandipan; Kumar, Vipin; Bhave, Amruta; Singh, Vaidhvi; Gogtay, Nithya J; Thatte, Urmila M; Talukdar, Arunansu; Kochar, Sanjay K; Patankar, Swati; Srivastava, Sanjeeva

    2015-09-01

    India significantly contributes to the global malaria burden and has the largest population in the world at risk of malaria. This study aims to analyze alterations in the human serum proteome as a consequence of non-severe and severe infections by the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to identify markers related to disease severity and to obtain mechanistic insights about disease pathogenesis and host immune responses. In discovery phase of the study, a comprehensive quantitative proteomic analysis was performed using gel-based (2D-DIGE) and gel-free (iTRAQ) techniques on two independent mass spectrometry platforms (ESI-Q-TOF and Q-Exactive mass spectrometry), and selected targets were validated by ELISA. Proteins showing altered serum abundance in falciparum malaria patients revealed the modulation of different physiological pathways including chemokine and cytokine signaling, IL-12 signaling and production in macrophages, complement cascades, blood coagulation, and protein ubiquitination pathways. Some muscle related and cytoskeletal proteins such as titin and galectin-3-binding protein were found to be up-regulated in severe malaria patients. Hemoglobin levels and platelet counts were also found to be drastically lower in severe malaria patients. Identified proteins including serum amyloid A, C-reactive protein, apolipoprotein E and haptoglobin, which exhibited sequential alterations in their serum abundance in different severity levels of malaria, could serve as potential predictive markers for disease severity. To the best of our information, we report here the first comprehensive analysis describing the serum proteomic alterations observed in severe P. falciparum infected patients from different malaria endemic regions of India. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Proteomics in India.

  6. The oxidation of a gasoline surrogate in the negative temperature coefficient region

    SciTech Connect

    Lenhert, David B.; Miller, David L.; Cernansky, Nicholas P.; Owens, Kevin G.

    2009-03-15

    This experimental study investigated the preignition reactivity behavior of a gasoline surrogate in a pressurized flow reactor over the low and intermediate temperature regime (600-800 K) at elevated pressure (8 atm). The surrogate mixture, a volumetric blend of 4.6% 1-pentene, 31.8% toluene, 14.0% n-heptane, and 49.6% 2,2,4-trimethyl-pentane (iso-octane), was shown to reproduce the low and intermediate temperature reactivity of full boiling range fuels in a previous study. Each of the surrogate components were examined individually to identify the major intermediate species in order to improve existing kinetic models, where appropriate, and to provide a basis for examining constituent interactions in the surrogate mixture. n-Heptane and 1-pentene started reacting at 630 K and 640 K, respectively, and both fuels exhibited a strong negative temperature coefficient (NTC) behavior starting at 700 and 710 K, respectively. Iso-octane showed a small level of reactivity at 630 K and a weak NTC behavior starting at 665 K. Neat toluene was unreactive at these temperatures. The surrogate started reacting at 630 K and exhibited a strong NTC behavior starting at 693 K. The extent of fuel consumption varied for each of the surrogate constituents and was related to their general autoignition behavior. Most of the intermediates identified during the surrogate oxidation were species observed during the oxidation of the neat constituents; however, the surrogate mixture did exhibit a significant increase in intermediates associated with iso-octane oxidation, but not from n-heptane. While neat toluene was unreactive at these temperatures, in the mixture it reacted with the radical pool generated by the other surrogate components, forming benzaldehyde, benzene, phenol, and ethyl-benzene. The observed n-heptane, iso-octane, and surrogate oxidation behavior was compared to predictions using existing kinetic models. The n-heptane model reasonably predicted the disappearance of the fuel

  7. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

  8. Development and Validation of a Clinic-Based Prediction Tool to Identify Female Athletes at High Risk for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

    PubMed Central

    Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Khoury, Jane; Succop, Paul; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2012-01-01

    Background Prospective measures of high knee abduction moment (KAM) during landing identify female athletes at high risk for anterior cruciate ligament injury. Laboratory-based measurements demonstrate 90% accuracy in prediction of high KAM. Clinic-based prediction algorithms that employ correlates derived from laboratory-based measurements also demonstrate high accuracy for prediction of high KAM mechanics during landing. Hypotheses Clinic-based measures derived from highly predictive laboratory-based models are valid for the accurate prediction of high KAM status, and simultaneous measurements using laboratory-based and clinic-based techniques highly correlate. Study Design Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods One hundred female athletes (basketball, soccer, volleyball players) were tested using laboratory-based measures to confirm the validity of identified laboratory-based correlate variables to clinic-based measures included in a prediction algorithm to determine high KAM status. To analyze selected clinic-based surrogate predictors, another cohort of 20 female athletes was simultaneously tested with both clinic-based and laboratory-based measures. Results The prediction model (odds ratio: 95% confidence interval), derived from laboratory-based surrogates including (1) knee valgus motion (1.59: 1.17-2.16 cm), (2) knee flexion range of motion (0.94: 0.89°-1.00°), (3) body mass (0.98: 0.94-1.03 kg), (4) tibia length (1.55: 1.20-2.07 cm), and (5) quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio (1.70: 0.48%-6.0%), predicted high KAM status with 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity (P < .001). Clinic-based techniques that used a calibrated physician’s scale, a standard measuring tape, standard camcorder, ImageJ software, and an isokinetic dynamometer showed high correlation (knee valgus motion, r = .87; knee flexion range of motion, r = .95; and tibia length, r = .98) to simultaneous laboratory-based measurements. Body mass and quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio

  9. Plutonium radiation surrogate

    DOEpatents

    Frank, Michael I.

    2010-02-02

    A self-contained source of gamma-ray and neutron radiation suitable for use as a radiation surrogate for weapons-grade plutonium is described. The source generates a radiation spectrum similar to that of weapons-grade plutonium at 5% energy resolution between 59 and 2614 keV, but contains no special nuclear material and emits little .alpha.-particle radiation. The weapons-grade plutonium radiation surrogate also emits neutrons having fluxes commensurate with the gamma-radiation intensities employed.

  10. Growth characteristics of virulent Bacillus anthracis and potential surrogate strains.

    PubMed

    De Siano, Tara; Padhi, Sally; Schaffner, Donald W; Montville, Thomas J

    2006-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare generation and lag times of virulent Bacillus anthracis strains with those of other Bacillus strains, to identify possible surrogates for growth studies, and to determine if the B. cereus module of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP) had predictive value for B. anthracis. Growth characteristics of B. anthracis, B. cereus, B. mycoides, and B. subtilis strains in brain heart infusion broth at pH 6.5, 6.0, and 5.5 were determined by absorbance measurements. Growth curves of B. anthracis Sterne and B. cereus strains appeared similar, and the generation times for strain Sterne fell within the PMP's 95% confidence interval for B. cereus. However, the virulent B. anthracis strains Vollum and Pasteur had shorter generation times than the avirulent Sterne strain and most other surrogates and were lower than the PMP's 95% confidence interval for B. cereus. Growth curves of B. cereus ATCC 9818 and B. subtilis ATCC 6633 were more similar to those of virulent B. anthracis strains, but all potential surrogates had significantly different generation times and lag times under some conditions.

  11. Identifying developmental vascular disruptor compounds using a predictive signature and alternative toxicity models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Identifying Developmental Vascular Disruptor Compounds Using a Predictive Signature and Alternative Toxicity Models Presenting Author: Tamara Tal Affiliation: U.S. EPA/ORD/ISTD, RTP, NC, USA Chemically induced vascular toxicity during embryonic development can result in a wide...

  12. Assessing the Validity of Surrogate Outcomes for ESRD: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Jun, Min; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Woodward, Mark; Perkovic, Vlado; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J.; Manns, Braden J.; Tonelli, Marcello

    2015-01-01

    Validation of current and promising surrogate outcomes for ESRD in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has been limited. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs to further inform the ability of surrogate outcomes for ESRD to predict the efficacy of various interventions on ESRD. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL (from inception through September 2013) were searched. All RCTs in adults with proteinuria, diabetes, or CKD stages 1–4 or renal transplant recipients reporting ≥10 ESRD events and a surrogate outcome (change in proteinuria or doubling of serum creatinine [DSCR]) for ESRD during a ≥1-year follow-up were included. Two reviewers abstracted trial characteristics and outcome data independently. To assess the correlation between the surrogate outcomes and ESRD, we determined the treatment effect ratio (TER), defined as the ratio of the treatment effects on ESRD and the effects on the change in surrogate outcomes. TERs close to 1 indicate greater agreement between ESRD and the surrogate, and these ratios were pooled across interventions. We identified 27 trials (97,458 participants; 4187 participants with ESRD). Seven trials reported the effects on change in proteinuria and showed consistent effects for proteinuria and ESRD (TER, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.59 to 1.16), with minimal heterogeneity. Twenty trials reported on DSCR. Treatment effects on DSCR were consistent with the effects on ESRD (TER, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.14), with moderate heterogeneity. In conclusion, DSCR is generally a good surrogate for ESRD, whereas data on proteinuria were limited. Further assessment of the surrogacy of proteinuria using prospective RCTs is warranted. PMID:25556165

  13. [Immunological surrogate endpoints to evaluate vaccine efficacy].

    PubMed

    Jin, Pengfei; Li, Jingxin; Zhou, Yang; Zhu, Fengcai

    2015-12-01

    An immunological surrogate endpoints is a vaccine-induced immune response (either humoral or cellular immune) that predicts protection against clinical endpoints (infection or disease), and can be used to evaluate vaccine efficacy in clinical vaccine trials. Compared with field efficacy trials observing clinical endpoints, immunological vaccine trials could reduce the sample size or shorten the duration of a trial, which promote the license and development of new candidate vaccines. For these reasons, establishing immunological surrogate endpoints is one of 14 Grand Challenges of Global Health of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. From two parts of definition and statistical methods for evaluation of surrogate endpoints, this review provides a more comprehensive description. PMID:26887309

  14. Detailed Kinetic Modeling of Gasoline Surrogate Mixtures

    SciTech Connect

    Mehl, M; Curran, H J; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2009-03-09

    Real fuels are complex mixtures of thousands of hydrocarbon compounds including linear and branched paraffins, naphthenes, olefins and aromatics. It is generally agreed that their behavior can be effectively reproduced by simpler fuel surrogates containing a limited number of components. In this work, a recently revised version of the kinetic model by the authors is used to analyze the combustion behavior of several components relevant to gasoline surrogate formulation. Particular attention is devoted to linear and branched saturated hydrocarbons (PRF mixtures), olefins (1-hexene) and aromatics (toluene). Model predictions for pure components, binary mixtures and multi-component gasoline surrogates are compared with recent experimental information collected in rapid compression machine, shock tube and jet stirred reactors covering a wide range of conditions pertinent to internal combustion engines. Simulation results are discussed focusing attention on the mixing effects of the fuel components.

  15. Sooting characteristics of surrogates for jet fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Mensch, Amy; Santoro, Robert J.; Litzinger, Thomas A.; Lee, S.-Y.

    2010-06-15

    Currently, modeling the combustion of aviation fuels, such as JP-8 and JetA, is not feasible due to the complexity and compositional variation of these practical fuels. Surrogate fuel mixtures, composed of a few pure hydrocarbon compounds, are a key step toward modeling the combustion of practical aviation fuels. For the surrogate to simulate the practical fuel, the composition must be designed to reproduce certain pre-designated chemical parameters such as sooting tendency, H/C ratio, autoignition, as well as physical parameters such as boiling range and density. In this study, we focused only on the sooting characteristics based on the Threshold Soot Index (TSI). New measurements of TSI values derived from the smoke point along with other sooting tendency data from the literature have been combined to develop a set of recommended TSI values for pure compounds used to make surrogate mixtures. When formulating the surrogate fuel mixtures, the TSI values of the components are used to predict the TSI of the mixture. To verify the empirical mixture rule for TSI, the TSI values of several binary mixtures of candidate surrogate components were measured. Binary mixtures were also used to derive a TSI for iso-cetane, which had not previously been measured, and to verify the TSI for 1-methylnaphthalene, which had a low smoke point and large relative uncertainty as a pure compound. Lastly, surrogate mixtures containing three components were tested to see how well the measured TSI values matched the predicted values, and to demonstrate that a target value for TSI can be maintained using various components, while also holding the H/C ratio constant. (author)

  16. Stochastic surrogate Hamiltonian

    SciTech Connect

    Katz, Gil; Kosloff, Ronnie; Gelman, David; Ratner, Mark A.

    2008-07-21

    The surrogate Hamiltonian is a general scheme to simulate the many body quantum dynamics composed of a primary system coupled to a bath. The method has been based on a representative bath Hamiltonian composed of two-level systems that is able to mimic the true system-bath dynamics up to a prespecified time. The original surrogate Hamiltonian method is limited to short time dynamics since the size of the Hilbert space required to obtain convergence grows exponentially with time. By randomly swapping bath modes with a secondary thermal reservoir, the method can simulate quantum dynamics of the primary system from short times to thermal equilibrium. By averaging a small number of realizations converged values of the system observables are obtained avoiding the exponential increase in resources. The method is demonstrated for the equilibration of a molecular oscillator with a thermal bath.

  17. Nitrate Salt Surrogate Blending Scoping Test Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Anast, Kurt Roy

    2015-11-13

    Test blending equipment identified in the “Engineering Options Assessment Report: Nitrate Salt Waste Stream Processing”. Determine if the equipment will provide adequate mixing of zeolite and surrogate salt/Swheat stream; optimize equipment type and operational sequencing; impact of baffles and inserts on mixing performance; and means of validating mixing performance

  18. Characterization of Potential Surrogates for Produce Pathogens

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background Escherichia coli (E. coli) is commonly used as a surrogate for pathogens in research to identify sources of agricultural contamination and to characterize how pathogens persist on plant surfaces. However, E. coli strains are highly diverse, exhibiting differences in physical, chemical and...

  19. Physical surrogate leg to evaluate blast mine injury.

    PubMed

    Cronin, Duane S; Williams, Kevin; Salisbury, Christopher

    2011-12-01

    Antipersonnel blast landmines pose a significant threat in affected areas, with injuries to the lower extremity and amputation being common. Addressing a need for injury prediction and protection evaluation, a 50th percentile physical surrogate lower leg was developed incorporating the load transmission paths in the lower leg. Biofidelic and frangible materials were evaluated and selected based on high deformation rate properties compared to those for human tissues. The predicted leg injuries from experimental blast testing were in agreement with injury data for unprotected and protected legs. Post-test examination was found to be the only consistent and reliable evaluation method for predicting injury outcome, and an evaluation based on tissue damage was shown to be sensitive to changes in loading conditions, not possible with existing approaches. This study identified the severity of calcaneal fracture as the primary determinant of serious injury, which should be the focus of future protection development.

  20. GeneValidator: identify problems with protein-coding gene predictions

    PubMed Central

    Drăgan, Monica-Andreea; Moghul, Ismail; Priyam, Anurag; Bustos, Claudio; Wurm, Yannick

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Genomes of emerging model organisms are now being sequenced at very low cost. However, obtaining accurate gene predictions remains challenging: even the best gene prediction algorithms make substantial errors and can jeopardize subsequent analyses. Therefore, many predicted genes must be time-consumingly visually inspected and manually curated. We developed GeneValidator (GV) to automatically identify problematic gene predictions and to aid manual curation. For each gene, GV performs multiple analyses based on comparisons to gene sequences from large databases. The resulting report identifies problematic gene predictions and includes extensive statistics and graphs for each prediction to guide manual curation efforts. GV thus accelerates and enhances the work of biocurators and researchers who need accurate gene predictions from newly sequenced genomes. Availability and implementation: GV can be used through a web interface or in the command-line. GV is open-source (AGPL), available at https://wurmlab.github.io/tools/genevalidator. Contact: y.wurm@qmul.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26787666

  1. Pareto Optimization Identifies Diverse Set of Phosphorylation Signatures Predicting Response to Treatment with Dasatinib.

    PubMed

    Klammer, Martin; Dybowski, J Nikolaj; Hoffmann, Daniel; Schaab, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Multivariate biomarkers that can predict the effectiveness of targeted therapy in individual patients are highly desired. Previous biomarker discovery studies have largely focused on the identification of single biomarker signatures, aimed at maximizing prediction accuracy. Here, we present a different approach that identifies multiple biomarkers by simultaneously optimizing their predictive power, number of features, and proximity to the drug target in a protein-protein interaction network. To this end, we incorporated NSGA-II, a fast and elitist multi-objective optimization algorithm that is based on the principle of Pareto optimality, into the biomarker discovery workflow. The method was applied to quantitative phosphoproteome data of 19 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell lines from a previous biomarker study. The algorithm successfully identified a total of 77 candidate biomarker signatures predicting response to treatment with dasatinib. Through filtering and similarity clustering, this set was trimmed to four final biomarker signatures, which then were validated on an independent set of breast cancer cell lines. All four candidates reached the same good prediction accuracy (83%) as the originally published biomarker. Although the newly discovered signatures were diverse in their composition and in their size, the central protein of the originally published signature - integrin β4 (ITGB4) - was also present in all four Pareto signatures, confirming its pivotal role in predicting dasatinib response in NSCLC cell lines. In summary, the method presented here allows for a robust and simultaneous identification of multiple multivariate biomarkers that are optimized for prediction performance, size, and relevance.

  2. Surrogate Reservoir Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    2010-05-01

    Surrogate Reservoir Model (SRM) is new solution for fast track, comprehensive reservoir analysis (solving both direct and inverse problems) using existing reservoir simulation models. SRM is defined as a replica of the full field reservoir simulation model that runs and provides accurate results in real-time (one simulation run takes only a fraction of a second). SRM mimics the capabilities of a full field model with high accuracy. Reservoir simulation is the industry standard for reservoir management. It is used in all phases of field development in the oil and gas industry. The routine of simulation studies calls for integration of static and dynamic measurements into the reservoir model. Full field reservoir simulation models have become the major source of information for analysis, prediction and decision making. Large prolific fields usually go through several versions (updates) of their model. Each new version usually is a major improvement over the previous version. The updated model includes the latest available information incorporated along with adjustments that usually are the result of single-well or multi-well history matching. As the number of reservoir layers (thickness of the formations) increases, the number of cells representing the model approaches several millions. As the reservoir models grow in size, so does the time that is required for each run. Schemes such as grid computing and parallel processing helps to a certain degree but do not provide the required speed for tasks such as: field development strategies using comprehensive reservoir analysis, solving the inverse problem for injection/production optimization, quantifying uncertainties associated with the geological model and real-time optimization and decision making. These types of analyses require hundreds or thousands of runs. Furthermore, with the new push for smart fields in the oil/gas industry that is a natural growth of smart completion and smart wells, the need for real time

  3. Trajectories of Substance Use Disorders in Youth: Identifying and Predicting Group Memberships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Chih-Yuan S.; Winters, Ken C.; Wall, Melanie M.

    2010-01-01

    This study used latent class regression to identify latent trajectory classes based on individuals' diagnostic course of substance use disorders (SUDs) from late adolescence to early adulthood as well as to examine whether several psychosocial risk factors predicted the trajectory class membership. The study sample consisted of 310 individuals…

  4. Use of NMR and NMR Prediction Software to Identify Components in Red Bull Energy Drinks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Andre J.; Shirzadi, Azadeh; Burrow, Timothy E.; Dicks, Andrew P.; Lefebvre, Brent; Corrin, Tricia

    2009-01-01

    A laboratory experiment designed as part of an upper-level undergraduate analytical chemistry course is described. Students investigate two popular soft drinks (Red Bull Energy Drink and sugar-free Red Bull Energy Drink) by NMR spectroscopy. With assistance of modern NMR prediction software they identify and quantify major components in each…

  5. Predicting Recidivism Among Adjudicated Delinquents: A Model to Identify High Risk Offenders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grenier, Charles E.; Roundtree, George A.

    1987-01-01

    Studied 100 clients of the East Baton Rouge Parish Family Court to develop predictive model for identifying offenders at high risk for recidivism. Found important predictor variables to be presence of delinquent siblings or friends, school problems, type of offense committed, and gender of delinquent. (Author/NB)

  6. Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jia, Pengfei; Maloney, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Predictive modelling is used to identify students at risk of failing their first-year courses and not returning to university in the second year. Our aim is twofold. Firstly, we want to understand the factors that lead to poor first-year experiences at university. Secondly, we want to develop simple, low-cost tools that would allow universities to…

  7. Identifying the singleplex and multiplex proteins based on transductive learning for protein subcellular localization prediction.

    PubMed

    Cao, Junzhe; Liu, Wenqi; He, Jianjun; Gu, Hong

    2013-07-01

    A new method is proposed to identify whether a query protein is singleplex or multiplex for improving the quality of protein subcellular localization prediction. Based on the transductive learning technique, this approach utilizes the information from the both query proteins and known proteins to estimate the subcellular location number of every query protein so that the singleplex and multiplex proteins can be recognized and distinguished. Each query protein is then dealt with by a targeted single-label or multi-label predictor to achieve a high-accuracy prediction result. We assess the performance of the proposed approach by applying it to three groups of protein sequences datasets. Simulation experiments show that the proposed approach can effectively identify the singleplex and multiplex proteins. Through a comparison, the reliably of this method for enhancing the power of predicting protein subcellular localization can also be verified.

  8. Improved design of prodromal Alzheimer's disease trials through cohort enrichment and surrogate endpoints.

    PubMed

    Macklin, Eric A; Blacker, Deborah; Hyman, Bradley T; Betensky, Rebecca A

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) trials initiated during or before the prodrome are costly and lengthy because patients are enrolled long before clinical symptoms are apparent, when disease progression is slow. We hypothesized that design of such trials could be improved by: 1) selecting individuals at moderate near-term risk of progression to AD dementia (the current clinical standard) and 2) by using short-term surrogate endpoints that predict progression to AD dementia. We used a longitudinal cohort of older, initially non-demented, community-dwelling participants (n = 358) to derive selection criteria and surrogate endpoints and tested them in an independent national data set (n = 6,243). To identify a "mid-risk" subgroup, we applied conditional tree-based survival models to Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale scores and common neuropsychological tests. In the validation cohort, a time-to-AD dementia trial applying these mid-risk selection criteria to a pool of all non-demented individuals could achieve equivalent power with 47% fewer participants than enrolling at random from that pool. We evaluated surrogate endpoints measureable over two years of follow-up based on cross-validated concordance between predictions from Cox models and observed time to AD dementia. The best performing surrogate, rate of change in CDR sum-of-boxes, did not reduce the trial duration required for equivalent power using estimates from the validation cohort, but alternative surrogates with better ability to predict time to AD dementia should be able to do so. The approach tested here might improve efficiency of prodromal AD trials using other potential measures and could be generalized to other diseases with long prodromal phases. PMID:23629586

  9. Predicting performance at medical school: can we identify at-risk students?

    PubMed Central

    Shaban, Sami; McLean, Michelle

    2011-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive potential of multiple indicators (eg, preadmission scores, unit, module and clerkship grades, course and examination scores) on academic performance at medical school, with a view to identifying students at risk. Methods An analysis was undertaken of medical student grades in a 6-year medical school program at the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, over the past 14 years. Results While high school scores were significantly (P < 0.001) correlated with the final integrated examination, predictability was only 6.8%. Scores for the United Arab Emirates university placement assessment (Common Educational Proficiency Assessment) were only slightly more promising as predictors with 14.9% predictability for the final integrated examination. Each unit or module in the first four years was highly correlated with the next unit or module, with 25%–60% predictability. Course examination scores (end of years 2, 4, and 6) were significantly correlated (P < 0.001) with the average scores in that 2-year period (59.3%, 64.8%, and 55.8% predictability, respectively). Final integrated examination scores were significantly correlated (P < 0.001) with National Board of Medical Examiners scores (35% predictability). Multivariate linear regression identified key grades with the greatest predictability of the final integrated examination score at three stages in the program. Conclusion This study has demonstrated that it may be possible to identify “at-risk” students relatively early in their studies through continuous data archiving and regular analysis. The data analysis techniques used in this study are not unique to this institution. PMID:23745085

  10. Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

    2014-05-01

    This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the non-linearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially-uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically-generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of data assimilation strongly relate

  11. Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

    2014-11-01

    This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: an Eulerian front propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the nonlinearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based DA algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach, as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of DA strongly relate to the spatial and temporal

  12. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  13. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Sargsyan, K.; Swiler, Laura P.

    2015-01-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditioned on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that accurate surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions lead to better prediction than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters’ distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can potentially be used to identify physical processes that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  14. A python analytical pipeline to identify prohormone precursors and predict prohormone cleavage sites.

    PubMed

    Southey, Bruce R; Sweedler, Jonathan V; Rodriguez-Zas, Sandra L

    2008-01-01

    Neuropeptides and hormones are signaling molecules that support cell-cell communication in the central nervous system. Experimentally characterizing neuropeptides requires significant efforts because of the complex and variable processing of prohormone precursor proteins into neuropeptides and hormones. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of the Python language to develop components of an bioinformatic analytical pipeline to identify precursors from genomic data and to predict cleavage as these precursors are en route to the final bioactive peptides. We identified 75 precursors in the rhesus genome, predicted cleavage sites using support vector machines and compared the rhesus predictions to putative assignments based on homology to human sequences. The correct classification rate of cleavage using the support vector machines was over 97% for both human and rhesus data sets. The functionality of Python has been important to develop and maintain NeuroPred (http://neuroproteomics.scs.uiuc.edu/neuropred.html), a user-centered web application for the neuroscience community that provides cleavage site prediction from a wide range of models, precision and accuracy statistics, post-translational modifications, and the molecular mass of potential peptides. The combined results illustrate the suitability of the Python language to implement an all-inclusive bioinformatics approach to predict neuropeptides that encompasses a large number of interdependent steps, from scanning genomes for precursor genes to identification of potential bioactive neuropeptides. PMID:19169350

  15. Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

  16. A python analytical pipeline to identify prohormone precursors and predict prohormone cleavage sites.

    PubMed

    Southey, Bruce R; Sweedler, Jonathan V; Rodriguez-Zas, Sandra L

    2008-01-01

    Neuropeptides and hormones are signaling molecules that support cell-cell communication in the central nervous system. Experimentally characterizing neuropeptides requires significant efforts because of the complex and variable processing of prohormone precursor proteins into neuropeptides and hormones. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of the Python language to develop components of an bioinformatic analytical pipeline to identify precursors from genomic data and to predict cleavage as these precursors are en route to the final bioactive peptides. We identified 75 precursors in the rhesus genome, predicted cleavage sites using support vector machines and compared the rhesus predictions to putative assignments based on homology to human sequences. The correct classification rate of cleavage using the support vector machines was over 97% for both human and rhesus data sets. The functionality of Python has been important to develop and maintain NeuroPred (http://neuroproteomics.scs.uiuc.edu/neuropred.html), a user-centered web application for the neuroscience community that provides cleavage site prediction from a wide range of models, precision and accuracy statistics, post-translational modifications, and the molecular mass of potential peptides. The combined results illustrate the suitability of the Python language to implement an all-inclusive bioinformatics approach to predict neuropeptides that encompasses a large number of interdependent steps, from scanning genomes for precursor genes to identification of potential bioactive neuropeptides.

  17. Pareto Optimization Identifies Diverse Set of Phosphorylation Signatures Predicting Response to Treatment with Dasatinib

    PubMed Central

    Klammer, Martin; Dybowski, J. Nikolaj; Hoffmann, Daniel; Schaab, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Multivariate biomarkers that can predict the effectiveness of targeted therapy in individual patients are highly desired. Previous biomarker discovery studies have largely focused on the identification of single biomarker signatures, aimed at maximizing prediction accuracy. Here, we present a different approach that identifies multiple biomarkers by simultaneously optimizing their predictive power, number of features, and proximity to the drug target in a protein-protein interaction network. To this end, we incorporated NSGA-II, a fast and elitist multi-objective optimization algorithm that is based on the principle of Pareto optimality, into the biomarker discovery workflow. The method was applied to quantitative phosphoproteome data of 19 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell lines from a previous biomarker study. The algorithm successfully identified a total of 77 candidate biomarker signatures predicting response to treatment with dasatinib. Through filtering and similarity clustering, this set was trimmed to four final biomarker signatures, which then were validated on an independent set of breast cancer cell lines. All four candidates reached the same good prediction accuracy (83%) as the originally published biomarker. Although the newly discovered signatures were diverse in their composition and in their size, the central protein of the originally published signature — integrin β4 (ITGB4) — was also present in all four Pareto signatures, confirming its pivotal role in predicting dasatinib response in NSCLC cell lines. In summary, the method presented here allows for a robust and simultaneous identification of multiple multivariate biomarkers that are optimized for prediction performance, size, and relevance. PMID:26083411

  18. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success.

    PubMed

    Pogue, Brian W; Elliott, Jonathan T; Kanick, Stephen C; Davis, Scott C; Samkoe, Kimberley S; Maytin, Edward V; Pereira, Stephen P; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  19. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success.

    PubMed

    Pogue, Brian W; Elliott, Jonathan T; Kanick, Stephen C; Davis, Scott C; Samkoe, Kimberley S; Maytin, Edward V; Pereira, Stephen P; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  20. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pogue, Brian W.; Elliott, Jonathan T.; Kanick, Stephen C.; Davis, Scott C.; Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Maytin, Edward V.; Pereira, Stephen P.; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  1. Re-evaluation of effective carbon number (ECN) approach to predict response factors of 'compounds lacking authentic standards or surrogates' (CLASS) by thermal desorption analysis with GC-MS.

    PubMed

    Szulejko, Jan E; Kim, Ki-Hyun

    2014-12-01

    In our recent study, we experimentally demonstrated the feasibility of an effective carbon number (ECN) approach for the prediction of the response factor (RF) values of 'compounds lacking authentic standards or surrogates' (CLASS) using a certified 54-mix containing 38 halogenated analytes as a pseudo-unknown. Although our recent analysis performed well in terms of RF predictive power for a 25-component learning set (for both Q-MS and TOF-MS detection), large physically unrealistic negative ECN and carbon number equivalent (CNE) values were noted for TOF-MS detection, e.g., ECN (acetic acid)=-16.96. Hence, to further improve the ECN-based quantitation procedure of CLASS, we re-challenged RF vs. ECN linear regression analysis with additional descriptors (i.e., Cl, Br, CC, and a group ECN offset (Ok)) using the 1-point RF values. With an Ok, all compound classes, e.g., halo-alkanes/-alkenes and aromatics can now be fitted to yield consistently positive set of ECN values for most analytes (e.g., 3 outliers out of 29, Q-MS detection). In this way, we were able to further refine our approach so that the absolute percentage difference (PD)±standard deviation (SD) between mass detected vs. mass loaded is reduced from 39.0±34.1% (previous work) to 13.1±12.0% (this work) for 29 C1C4 halocarbons (Q-MS detector).

  2. On the importance of identifying, characterizing, and predicting fundamental phenomena towards microbial electrochemistry applications.

    PubMed

    Torres, César Iván

    2014-06-01

    The development of microbial electrochemistry research toward technological applications has increased significantly in the past years, leading to many process configurations. This short review focuses on the need to identify and characterize the fundamental phenomena that control the performance of microbial electrochemical cells (MXCs). Specifically, it discusses the importance of recent efforts to discover and characterize novel microorganisms for MXC applications, as well as recent developments to understand transport limitations in MXCs. As we increase our understanding of how MXCs operate, it is imperative to continue modeling efforts in order to effectively predict their performance, design efficient MXC technologies, and implement them commercially. Thus, the success of MXC technologies largely depends on the path of identifying, understanding, and predicting fundamental phenomena that determine MXC performance.

  3. Surrogate Endpoints in Suicide Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wortzel, Hal S.; Gutierrez, Peter M.; Homaifar, Beeta Y.; Breshears, Ryan E.; Harwood, Jeri E.

    2010-01-01

    Surrogate endpoints frequently substitute for rare outcomes in research. The ability to learn about completed suicides by investigating more readily available and proximate outcomes, such as suicide attempts, has obvious appeal. However, concerns with surrogates from the statistical science perspective exist, and mounting evidence from…

  4. Accurate structure prediction of peptide–MHC complexes for identifying highly immunogenic antigens

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Min-Sun; Park, Sung Yong; Miller, Keith R.; Collins, Edward J.; Lee, Ha Youn

    2013-11-01

    Designing an optimal HIV-1 vaccine faces the challenge of identifying antigens that induce a broad immune capacity. One factor to control the breadth of T cell responses is the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex. Here, we present an in silico protocol for predicting peptide–MHC structure. A robust signature of a conformational transition was identified during all-atom molecular dynamics, which results in a model with high accuracy. A large test set was used in constructing our protocol and we went another step further using a blind test with a wild-type peptide and two highly immunogenic mutants, which predicted substantial conformational changes in both mutants. The center residues at position five of the analogs were configured to be accessible to solvent, forming a prominent surface, while the residue of the wild-type peptide was to point laterally toward the side of the binding cleft. We then experimentally determined the structures of the blind test set, using high resolution of X-ray crystallography, which verified predicted conformational changes. Our observation strongly supports a positive association of the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex to its immunogenicity. Our study offers the prospect of enhancing immunogenicity of vaccines by identifying MHC binding immunogens.

  5. kmer-SVM: a web server for identifying predictive regulatory sequence features in genomic data sets

    PubMed Central

    Fletez-Brant, Christopher; Lee, Dongwon; McCallion, Andrew S.; Beer, Michael A.

    2013-01-01

    Massively parallel sequencing technologies have made the generation of genomic data sets a routine component of many biological investigations. For example, Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequence assays detect genomic regions bound (directly or indirectly) by specific factors, and DNase-seq identifies regions of open chromatin. A major bottleneck in the interpretation of these data is the identification of the underlying DNA sequence code that defines, and ultimately facilitates prediction of, these transcription factor (TF) bound or open chromatin regions. We have recently developed a novel computational methodology, which uses a support vector machine (SVM) with kmer sequence features (kmer-SVM) to identify predictive combinations of short transcription factor-binding sites, which determine the tissue specificity of these genomic assays (Lee, Karchin and Beer, Discriminative prediction of mammalian enhancers from DNA sequence. Genome Res. 2011; 21:2167–80). This regulatory information can (i) give confidence in genomic experiments by recovering previously known binding sites, and (ii) reveal novel sequence features for subsequent experimental testing of cooperative mechanisms. Here, we describe the development and implementation of a web server to allow the broader research community to independently apply our kmer-SVM to analyze and interpret their genomic datasets. We analyze five recently published data sets and demonstrate how this tool identifies accessory factors and repressive sequence elements. kmer-SVM is available at http://kmersvm.beerlab.org. PMID:23771147

  6. Environmental diversity as a surrogate for species representation.

    PubMed

    Beier, Paul; de Albuquerque, Fábio Suzart

    2015-10-01

    Because many species have not been described and most species ranges have not been mapped, conservation planners often use surrogates for conservation planning, but evidence for surrogate effectiveness is weak. Surrogates are well-mapped features such as soil types, landforms, occurrences of an easily observed taxon (discrete surrogates), and well-mapped environmental conditions (continuous surrogate). In the context of reserve selection, the idea is that a set of sites selected to span diversity in the surrogate will efficiently represent most species. Environmental diversity (ED) is a rarely used surrogate that selects sites to efficiently span multivariate ordination space. Because it selects across continuous environmental space, ED should perform better than discrete surrogates (which necessarily ignore within-bin and between-bin heterogeneity). Despite this theoretical advantage, ED appears to have performed poorly in previous tests of its ability to identify 50 × 50 km cells that represented vertebrates in Western Europe. Using an improved implementation of ED, we retested ED on Western European birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and combined terrestrial vertebrates. We also tested ED on data sets for plants of Zimbabwe, birds of Spain, and birds of Arizona (United States). Sites selected using ED represented European mammals no better than randomly selected cells, but they represented species in the other 7 data sets with 20% to 84% effectiveness. This far exceeds the performance in previous tests of ED, and exceeds the performance of most discrete surrogates. We believe ED performed poorly in previous tests because those tests considered only a few candidate explanatory variables and used suboptimal forms of ED's selection algorithm. We suggest future work on ED focus on analyses at finer grain sizes more relevant to conservation decisions, explore the effect of selecting the explanatory variables most associated with species turnover, and investigate

  7. Environmental diversity as a surrogate for species representation.

    PubMed

    Beier, Paul; de Albuquerque, Fábio Suzart

    2015-10-01

    Because many species have not been described and most species ranges have not been mapped, conservation planners often use surrogates for conservation planning, but evidence for surrogate effectiveness is weak. Surrogates are well-mapped features such as soil types, landforms, occurrences of an easily observed taxon (discrete surrogates), and well-mapped environmental conditions (continuous surrogate). In the context of reserve selection, the idea is that a set of sites selected to span diversity in the surrogate will efficiently represent most species. Environmental diversity (ED) is a rarely used surrogate that selects sites to efficiently span multivariate ordination space. Because it selects across continuous environmental space, ED should perform better than discrete surrogates (which necessarily ignore within-bin and between-bin heterogeneity). Despite this theoretical advantage, ED appears to have performed poorly in previous tests of its ability to identify 50 × 50 km cells that represented vertebrates in Western Europe. Using an improved implementation of ED, we retested ED on Western European birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and combined terrestrial vertebrates. We also tested ED on data sets for plants of Zimbabwe, birds of Spain, and birds of Arizona (United States). Sites selected using ED represented European mammals no better than randomly selected cells, but they represented species in the other 7 data sets with 20% to 84% effectiveness. This far exceeds the performance in previous tests of ED, and exceeds the performance of most discrete surrogates. We believe ED performed poorly in previous tests because those tests considered only a few candidate explanatory variables and used suboptimal forms of ED's selection algorithm. We suggest future work on ED focus on analyses at finer grain sizes more relevant to conservation decisions, explore the effect of selecting the explanatory variables most associated with species turnover, and investigate

  8. Cerium as a surrogate in the plutonium immobilization waste form

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marra, James Christopher

    In the aftermath of the Cold War, approximately 50 tonnes (MT) of weapons useable plutonium (Pu) has been identified as excess. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has decided that at least a portion of this material will be immobilized in a titanate-based ceramic for final disposal in a geologic repository. The baseline formulation was designed to produce a ceramic consisting primarily of a highly substituted pyrochlore with minor amounts of brannerite and hafnia-substituted rutile. Since development studies with actual actinide materials is difficult, surrogates have been used to facilitate testing. Cerium has routinely been used as an actinide surrogate in actinide chemistry and processing studies. Although cerium appeared as an adequate physical surrogate for powder handling and general processing studies, cerium was found to act significantly different from a chemical perspective in the Pu ceramic form. The reduction of cerium at elevated temperatures caused different reaction paths toward densification of the respective forms resulting in different phase assemblages and microstructural features. Single-phase fabrication studies and cerium oxidation state analyses were performed to further quantify these behavioral differences. These studies indicated that the major phases in the final phase assemblages contained point defects likely leading to their stability. Additionally, thermochemical arguments predicted that the predominant pyrochlore phase in the ceramic was metastable. The apparent metastabilty associated with primary phase in the Pu ceramic form indicated that additional studies must be performed to evaluate the thermodynamic properties of these compounds. Moreover, the metastability of this predominant phase must be considered in assessment of long-term behavior (e.g. radiation stability) of this ceramic.

  9. High-throughput respirometric assay identifies predictive toxicophore of mitochondrial injury

    SciTech Connect

    Wills, Lauren P.; Beeson, Gyda C.; Trager, Richard E.; Lindsey, Christopher C.; Beeson, Craig C.; Peterson, Yuri K.; Schnellmann, Rick G.

    2013-10-15

    Many environmental chemicals and drugs negatively affect human health through deleterious effects on mitochondrial function. Currently there is no chemical library of mitochondrial toxicants, and no reliable methods for predicting mitochondrial toxicity. We hypothesized that discrete toxicophores defined by distinct chemical entities can identify previously unidentified mitochondrial toxicants. We used a respirometric assay to screen 1760 compounds (5 μM) from the LOPAC and ChemBridge DIVERSet libraries. Thirty-one of the assayed compounds decreased uncoupled respiration, a stress test for mitochondrial dysfunction, prior to a decrease in cell viability and reduced the oxygen consumption rate in isolated mitochondria. The mitochondrial toxicants were grouped by chemical similarity and two clusters containing four compounds each were identified. Cheminformatic analysis of one of the clusters identified previously uncharacterized mitochondrial toxicants from the ChemBridge DIVERSet. This approach will enable the identification of mitochondrial toxicants and advance the prediction of mitochondrial toxicity for both drug discovery and risk assessment. - Highlights: • Respirometric assay conducted in RPTC to create mitochondrial toxicant database. • Chemically similar mitochondrial toxicants aligned as mitochondrial toxicophores • Mitochondrial toxicophore identifies five novel mitochondrial toxicants.

  10. A Review of Surrogate Assisted Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Díaz-Manríquez, Alan; Toscano, Gregorio; Barron-Zambrano, Jose Hugo; Tello-Leal, Edgar

    2016-01-01

    Multiobjective evolutionary algorithms have incorporated surrogate models in order to reduce the number of required evaluations to approximate the Pareto front of computationally expensive multiobjective optimization problems. Currently, few works have reviewed the state of the art in this topic. However, the existing reviews have focused on classifying the evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithms with respect to the type of underlying surrogate model. In this paper, we center our focus on classifying multiobjective evolutionary algorithms with respect to their integration with surrogate models. This interaction has led us to classify similar approaches and identify advantages and disadvantages of each class. PMID:27382366

  11. A Combinatorial Partitioning Method to Identify Multilocus Genotypic Partitions That Predict Quantitative Trait Variation

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, M.R.; Kardia, S.L.R.; Ferrell, R.E.; Sing, C.F.

    2001-01-01

    Recent advances in genome research have accelerated the process of locating candidate genes and the variable sites within them and have simplified the task of genotype measurement. The development of statistical and computational strategies to utilize information on hundreds — soon thousands — of variable loci to investigate the relationships between genome variation and phenotypic variation has not kept pace, particularly for quantitative traits that do not follow simple Mendelian patterns of inheritance. We present here the combinatorial partitioning method (CPM) that examines multiple genes, each containing multiple variable loci, to identify partitions of multilocus genotypes that predict interindividual variation in quantitative trait levels. We illustrate this method with an application to plasma triglyceride levels collected on 188 males, ages 20–60 yr, ascertained without regard to health status, from Rochester, Minnesota. Genotype information included measurements at 18 diallelic loci in six coronary heart disease–candidate susceptibility gene regions: APOA1-C3-A4, APOB, APOE, LDLR, LPL, and PON1. To illustrate the CPM, we evaluated all possible partitions of two-locus genotypes into two to nine partitions (∼106 evaluations). We found that many combinations of loci are involved in sets of genotypic partitions that predict triglyceride variability and that the most predictive sets show nonadditivity. These results suggest that traditional methods of building multilocus models that rely on statistically significant marginal, single-locus effects, may fail to identify combinations of loci that best predict trait variability. The CPM offers a strategy for exploring the high-dimensional genotype state space so as to predict the quantitative trait variation in the population at large that does not require the conditioning of the analysis on a prespecified genetic model. PMID:11230170

  12. Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana.

    PubMed

    Morris, Lillian R; Blackburn, Jason K

    2016-06-01

    Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage and can lead to large-scale die-offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high-risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi-species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs. PMID:27169560

  13. A Proteomic Approach Identifies Candidate Early Biomarkers to Predict Severe Dengue in Children

    PubMed Central

    Nhi, Dang My; Huy, Nguyen Tien; Ohyama, Kaname; Kimura, Daisuke; Lan, Nguyen Thi Phuong; Uchida, Leo; Thuong, Nguyen Van; Nhon, Cao Thi My; Phuc, Le Hong; Mai, Nguyen Thi; Mizukami, Shusaku; Bao, Lam Quoc; Doan, Nguyen Ngoc; Binh, Nguyen Van Thanh; Quang, Luong Chan; Karbwang, Juntra; Yui, Katsuyuki; Morita, Kouichi; Huong, Vu Thi Que; Hirayama, Kenji

    2016-01-01

    Background Severe dengue with severe plasma leakage (SD-SPL) is the most frequent of dengue severe form. Plasma biomarkers for early predictive diagnosis of SD-SPL are required in the primary clinics for the prevention of dengue death. Methodology Among 63 confirmed dengue pediatric patients recruited, hospital based longitudinal study detected six SD-SPL and ten dengue with warning sign (DWS). To identify the specific proteins increased or decreased in the SD-SPL plasma obtained 6–48 hours before the shock compared with the DWS, the isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification (iTRAQ) technology was performed using four patients each group. Validation was undertaken in 6 SD-SPL and 10 DWS patients. Principal findings Nineteen plasma proteins exhibited significantly different relative concentrations (p<0.05), with five over-expressed and fourteen under-expressed in SD-SPL compared with DWS. The individual protein was classified to either blood coagulation, vascular regulation, cellular transport-related processes or immune response. The immunoblot quantification showed angiotensinogen and antithrombin III significantly increased in SD-SPL whole plasma of early stage compared with DWS subjects. Even using this small number of samples, antithrombin III predicted SD-SPL before shock occurrence with accuracy. Conclusion Proteins identified here may serve as candidate predictive markers to diagnose SD-SPL for timely clinical management. Since the number of subjects are small, so further studies are needed to confirm all these biomarkers. PMID:26895439

  14. A predicted protein interactome identifies conserved global networks and disease resistance subnetworks in maize

    PubMed Central

    Musungu, Bryan; Bhatnagar, Deepak; Brown, Robert L.; Fakhoury, Ahmad M.; Geisler, Matt

    2015-01-01

    Interactomes are genome-wide roadmaps of protein-protein interactions. They have been produced for humans, yeast, the fruit fly, and Arabidopsis thaliana and have become invaluable tools for generating and testing hypotheses. A predicted interactome for Zea mays (PiZeaM) is presented here as an aid to the research community for this valuable crop species. PiZeaM was built using a proven method of interologs (interacting orthologs) that were identified using both one-to-one and many-to-many orthology between genomes of maize and reference species. Where both maize orthologs occurred for an experimentally determined interaction in the reference species, we predicted a likely interaction in maize. A total of 49,026 unique interactions for 6004 maize proteins were predicted. These interactions are enriched for processes that are evolutionarily conserved, but include many otherwise poorly annotated proteins in maize. The predicted maize interactions were further analyzed by comparing annotation of interacting proteins, including different layers of ontology. A map of pairwise gene co-expression was also generated and compared to predicted interactions. Two global subnetworks were constructed for highly conserved interactions. These subnetworks showed clear clustering of proteins by function. Another subnetwork was created for disease response using a bait and prey strategy to capture interacting partners for proteins that respond to other organisms. Closer examination of this subnetwork revealed the connectivity between biotic and abiotic hormone stress pathways. We believe PiZeaM will provide a useful tool for the prediction of protein function and analysis of pathways for Z. mays researchers and is presented in this paper as a reference tool for the exploration of protein interactions in maize. PMID:26089837

  15. Robust Microarray Meta-Analysis Identifies Differentially Expressed Genes for Clinical Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Phan, John H.; Young, Andrew N.; Wang, May D.

    2012-01-01

    Combining multiple microarray datasets increases sample size and leads to improved reproducibility in identification of informative genes and subsequent clinical prediction. Although microarrays have increased the rate of genomic data collection, sample size is still a major issue when identifying informative genetic biomarkers. Because of this, feature selection methods often suffer from false discoveries, resulting in poorly performing predictive models. We develop a simple meta-analysis-based feature selection method that captures the knowledge in each individual dataset and combines the results using a simple rank average. In a comprehensive study that measures robustness in terms of clinical application (i.e., breast, renal, and pancreatic cancer), microarray platform heterogeneity, and classifier (i.e., logistic regression, diagonal LDA, and linear SVM), we compare the rank average meta-analysis method to five other meta-analysis methods. Results indicate that rank average meta-analysis consistently performs well compared to five other meta-analysis methods. PMID:23365541

  16. Electrocardiogram PR Interval Is a Surrogate Marker to Predict New Occurrence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Frequent Premature Atrial Contractions

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Jin Kyung; Choi, So Ra; Park, Seung-Jung; Kim, June Soo

    2016-01-01

    The clinical significance of prolonged PR interval has not been evaluated in patients with frequent premature atrial contractions (PACs). We investigated whether prolonged PR interval could predict new occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with frequent PACs. We retrospectively analyzed 684 patients with frequent PACs (> 100 PACs/day) who performed repeated 24-hour Holter monitoring. Prolonged PR interval was defined as longer than 200 msec. Among 684 patients, 626 patients had normal PR intervals (group A) and 58 patients had prolonged PR intervals (group B). After a mean follow-up of 59.3 months, 14 patients (24.1%) in group B developed AF compared to 50 patients (8.0%) in group A (P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis showed that prolonged PR interval (hazard ratio [HR], 1.950; 95% CI, 1.029–3.698; P = 0.041), age (HR, 1.033; 95% CI, 1.006–1.060; P = 0.015), and left atrial (LA) dimension (HR, 1.061; 95% CI, 1.012–1.112; P = 0.015) were associated with AF occurrence. Prolonged PR interval, advanced age, and enlarged LA dimension are independent risk factors of AF occurrence in patients with frequent PACs. PMID:27051234

  17. Striation density for predicting the identifiability of fired bullets with automated inspection systems.

    PubMed

    Chu, Wei; Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore; Ballou, Susan

    2010-09-01

    Automated firearms identification systems will correlate a reference bullet with all evidence bullets without a selection procedure to exclude the bullets having insufficient bullet identifying signature. Correlations that include such bullets increase the workload and may affect the correlation accuracy. In this article, a parameter called striation density is proposed for determining and predicting bullet identifiability. After image preprocessing, edge detection and filtering techniques are used to extract the edges of striation marks, the resulting binary image distinctly shows the amount and distribution of striation marks. Then striation density is calculated for determining the quality of images. In the experiment, striation densities for six lands of 48 bullets fired from 12 gun barrels of six manufactures are calculated. Statistical results show strong relation between striation density and identification rate. It can provide firearms identification systems with a quantitative criterion to assess whether there are sufficient striae for reliable bullet identification.

  18. Anthropometric surrogates for screening of low birth weight newborns: a community-based study.

    PubMed

    Rustagi, Neeti; Prasuna, J G; Taneja, D K

    2012-03-01

    In developing countries, where about 75% of births occur at home or in the community, logistic problems prevent the weighing of every newborn child. This study compares various anthropometric surrogates for identification of low birth weight neonates. A longitudinal community based study was done in an urban resettlement colony and 283 singleton neonates within 7 days of birth were examined for the anthropometric measurements such as head, chest, mid upper arm circumference and foot length as a screening tool for low birth weight. Chest circumference measured within 7 days of birth appeared to be the most appropriate surrogate of low birth weight with highest sensitivity (75.4%), specificity (78.4%), and positive predictive value (48.9%) as compared with other anthropometric parameters. Low birth weight neonates in absence of weighing scales can be early identified by using simple anthropometric measurements for enhanced home-based care and timely referral.

  19. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    PubMed

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22182300

  20. Father involvement: Identifying and predicting family members' shared and unique perceptions.

    PubMed

    Dyer, W Justin; Day, Randal D; Harper, James M

    2014-08-01

    Father involvement research has typically not recognized that reports of involvement contain at least two components: 1 reflecting a view of father involvement that is broadly recognized in the family, and another reflecting each reporter's unique perceptions. Using a longitudinal sample of 302 families, this study provides a first examination of shared and unique views of father involvement (engagement and warmth) from the perspectives of fathers, children, and mothers. This study also identifies influences on these shared and unique perspectives. Father involvement reports were obtained when the child was 12 and 14 years old. Mother reports overlapped more with the shared view than father or child reports. This suggests the mother's view may be more in line with broadly recognized father involvement. Regarding antecedents, for fathers' unique view, a compensatory model partially explains results; that is, negative aspects of family life were positively associated with fathers' unique view. Children's unique view of engagement may partially reflect a sentiment override with father antisocial behaviors being predictive. Mothers' unique view of engagement was predicted by father and mother work hours and her unique view of warmth was predicted by depression and maternal gatekeeping. Taken, together finding suggests a far more nuanced view of father involvement should be considered. PMID:25000130

  1. Identifying predictive features in drug response using machine learning: opportunities and challenges.

    PubMed

    Vidyasagar, Mathukumalli

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews several techniques from machine learning that can be used to study the problem of identifying a small number of features, from among tens of thousands of measured features, that can accurately predict a drug response. Prediction problems are divided into two categories: sparse classification and sparse regression. In classification, the clinical parameter to be predicted is binary, whereas in regression, the parameter is a real number. Well-known methods for both classes of problems are briefly discussed. These include the SVM (support vector machine) for classification and various algorithms such as ridge regression, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), and EN (elastic net) for regression. In addition, several well-established methods that do not directly fall into machine learning theory are also reviewed, including neural networks, PAM (pattern analysis for microarrays), SAM (significance analysis for microarrays), GSEA (gene set enrichment analysis), and k-means clustering. Several references indicative of the application of these methods to cancer biology are discussed.

  2. Father involvement: Identifying and predicting family members' shared and unique perceptions.

    PubMed

    Dyer, W Justin; Day, Randal D; Harper, James M

    2014-08-01

    Father involvement research has typically not recognized that reports of involvement contain at least two components: 1 reflecting a view of father involvement that is broadly recognized in the family, and another reflecting each reporter's unique perceptions. Using a longitudinal sample of 302 families, this study provides a first examination of shared and unique views of father involvement (engagement and warmth) from the perspectives of fathers, children, and mothers. This study also identifies influences on these shared and unique perspectives. Father involvement reports were obtained when the child was 12 and 14 years old. Mother reports overlapped more with the shared view than father or child reports. This suggests the mother's view may be more in line with broadly recognized father involvement. Regarding antecedents, for fathers' unique view, a compensatory model partially explains results; that is, negative aspects of family life were positively associated with fathers' unique view. Children's unique view of engagement may partially reflect a sentiment override with father antisocial behaviors being predictive. Mothers' unique view of engagement was predicted by father and mother work hours and her unique view of warmth was predicted by depression and maternal gatekeeping. Taken, together finding suggests a far more nuanced view of father involvement should be considered.

  3. An Evaluation of Two Internal Surrogates for Determining the Three-Dimensional Position of Peripheral Lung Tumors

    SciTech Connect

    Spoelstra, Femke Soernsen de Koste, John R. van; Vincent, Andrew; Cuijpers, Johan P.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, Suresh

    2009-06-01

    Purpose: Both carina and diaphragm positions have been used as surrogates during respiratory-gated radiotherapy. We studied the correlation of both surrogates with three-dimensional (3D) tumor position. Methods and Materials: A total of 59 repeat artifact-free four-dimensional (4D) computed tomography (CT) scans, acquired during uncoached breathing, were identified in 23 patients with Stage I lung cancer. Repeat scans were co-registered to the initial 4D CT scan, and tumor, carina, and ipsilateral diaphragm were manually contoured in all phases of each 4D CT data set. Correlation between positions of carina and diaphragm with 3D tumor position was studied by use of log-likelihood ratio statistics. Models to predict 3D tumor position from internal surrogates at end inspiration (EI) and end expiration (EE) were developed, and model accuracy was tested by calculating SDs of differences between predicted and actual tumor positions. Results: Motion of both the carina and diaphragm significantly correlated with tumor motion, but log-likelihood ratios indicated that the carina was more predictive for tumor position. When craniocaudal tumor position was predicted by use of craniocaudal carina positions, the SDs of the differences between the predicted and observed positions were 2.2 mm and 2.4 mm at EI and EE, respectively. The corresponding SDs derived with the diaphragm positions were 3.7 mm and 3.9 mm at EI and EE, respectively. Prediction errors in the other directions were comparable. Prediction accuracy was similar at EI and EE. Conclusions: The carina is a better surrogate of 3D tumor position than diaphragm position. Because residual prediction errors were observed in this analysis, additional studies will be performed using audio-coached scans.

  4. Surrogate markers of long-term outcome in primary total hip arthroplasty

    PubMed Central

    Malak, T. T.; Broomfield, J. A. J.; Palmer, A. J. R.; Hopewell, S.; Carr, A.; Brown, C.; Prieto-Alhambra, D.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives High failure rates of metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty implants have highlighted the need for more careful introduction and monitoring of new implants and for the evaluation of the safety of medical devices. The National Joint Registry and other regulatory services are unable to detect failing implants at an early enough stage. We aimed to identify validated surrogate markers of long-term outcome in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies evaluating surrogate markers for predicting long-term outcome in primary THA. Long-term outcome was defined as revision rate of an implant at ten years according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines. We conducted a search of Medline and Embase (OVID) databases. Separate search strategies were devised for the Cochrane database and Google Scholar. Each search was performed to include articles from the date of their inception to June 8, 2015. Results Our search strategy identified 1082 studies of which 115 studies were included for full article review. Following review, 17 articles were found that investigated surrogate markers of long-term outcome. These included one systematic review, one randomised control trial (RCT), one case control study and 13 case series. Validated surrogate markers included Radiostereometric Analysis (RSA) and Einzel-Bild-Röntgen-Analyse (EBRA), each measuring implant migration and wear. We identified five RSA studies (one systematic review and four case series) and four EBRA studies (one RCT and three case series). Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) at six months have been investigated but have not been validated against long-term outcomes. Conclusions This systematic review identified two validated surrogate markers of long-term primary THA outcome: RSA and EBRA, each measuring implant migration and wear. We recommend the consideration of RSA in the pre-market testing of new implants. EBRA can

  5. Anaerobic biodegradation of surrogate naphthenic acids.

    PubMed

    Clothier, Lindsay N; Gieg, Lisa M

    2016-03-01

    Surface bitumen extraction from the Alberta's oil sands region generates large settling basins known as tailings ponds. The oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) stored in these ponds contain solid and residual bitumen-associated compounds including naphthenic acids (NAs) that can potentially be biodedgraded by indigenous tailings microorganisms. While the biodegradation of some NAs is known to occur under aerobic conditions, little is understood about anaerobic NA biodegradation even though tailings ponds are mainly anoxic. Here, we investigated the potential for anaerobic NA biodegradation by indigenous tailings microorganisms. Enrichment cultures were established from anoxic tailings that were amended with 5 single-ringed surrogate NAs or acid-extractable organics (AEO) from OSPW and incubated under nitrate-, sulfate-, iron-reducing, and methanogenic conditions. Surrogate NA depletion was observed under all anaerobic conditions tested to varying extents, correlating to losses in the respective electron acceptor (sulfate or nitrate) or the production of predicted products (Fe(II) or methane). Tailings-containing cultures incubated under the different electron-accepting conditions resulted in the enrichment and putative identification of microbial community members that may function in metabolizing surrogate NAs under the various anoxic conditions. In addition, more complex NAs (in the form of AEO) was observed to drive sulfate and iron reduction relative to controls. Overall, this study has shown that simple surrogate NAs can be biodegraded under a variety of anoxic conditions, a key first step in understanding the potential anaerobic metabolism of NAs in oil sands tailings ponds and other industrial wastewaters. PMID:26724449

  6. Financial Surrogate Decision Making: Lessons from Applied Experimental Philosophy.

    PubMed

    Feltz, Adam

    2016-01-01

    An estimated 1 in 4 elderly Americans need a surrogate to make decisions at least once in their lives. With an aging population, that number is almost certainly going to increase. This paper focuses on financial surrogate decision making. To illustrate some of the empirical and moral implications associated with financial surrogate decision making, two experiments suggest that default choice settings can predictably influence some surrogate financial decision making. Experiment 1 suggested that when making hypothetical financial decisions, surrogates tended to stay with default settings (OR = 4.37, 95% CI 1.52, 12.48). Experiment 2 replicated and extended this finding suggesting that in a different context (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.1, 4.65). Experiment 2 also suggested that those who were more numerate were less likely to be influenced by default settings than the less numerate, but only when the decision is whether to "opt in" (p = .05). These data highlight the importance of a recent debate about "nudging." Defaults are common methods to nudge people to make desirable choices while allowing the liberty to choose otherwise. Some of the ethics of using default settings to nudge surrogate decision makers are discussed. PMID:27647483

  7. Financial Surrogate Decision Making: Lessons from Applied Experimental Philosophy.

    PubMed

    Feltz, Adam

    2016-09-20

    An estimated 1 in 4 elderly Americans need a surrogate to make decisions at least once in their lives. With an aging population, that number is almost certainly going to increase. This paper focuses on financial surrogate decision making. To illustrate some of the empirical and moral implications associated with financial surrogate decision making, two experiments suggest that default choice settings can predictably influence some surrogate financial decision making. Experiment 1 suggested that when making hypothetical financial decisions, surrogates tended to stay with default settings (OR = 4.37, 95% CI 1.52, 12.48). Experiment 2 replicated and extended this finding suggesting that in a different context (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.1, 4.65). Experiment 2 also suggested that those who were more numerate were less likely to be influenced by default settings than the less numerate, but only when the decision is whether to "opt in" (p = .05). These data highlight the importance of a recent debate about "nudging." Defaults are common methods to nudge people to make desirable choices while allowing the liberty to choose otherwise. Some of the ethics of using default settings to nudge surrogate decision makers are discussed.

  8. BFH-OST, a new predictive screening tool for identifying osteoporosis in postmenopausal Han Chinese women

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Zhao; Yang, Yong; Lin, JiSheng; Zhang, XiaoDong; Meng, Qian; Wang, BingQiang; Fei, Qi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To develop a simple new clinical screening tool to identify primary osteoporosis by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in postmenopausal women and to compare its validity with the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA) in a Han Chinese population. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling 1,721 community-dwelling postmenopausal Han Chinese women. All the subjects completed a structured questionnaire and had their bone mineral density measured using DXA. Using logistic regression analysis, we assessed the ability of numerous potential risk factors examined in the questionnaire to identify women with osteoporosis. Based on this analysis, we build a new predictive model, the Beijing Friendship Hospital Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (BFH-OST). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to compare the validity of the new model and OSTA in identifying postmenopausal women at increased risk of primary osteoporosis as defined according to the World Health Organization criteria. Results At screening, it was found that of the 1,721 subjects with DXA, 22.66% had osteoporosis and a further 47.36% had osteopenia. Of the items screened in the questionnaire, it was found that age, weight, height, body mass index, personal history of fracture after the age of 45 years, history of fragility fracture in either parent, current smoking, and consumption of three of more alcoholic drinks per day were all predictive of osteoporosis. However, age at menarche and menopause, years since menopause, and number of pregnancies and live births were irrelevant in this study. The logistic regression analysis and item reduction yielded a final tool (BFH-OST) based on age, body weight, height, and history of fracture after the age of 45 years. The BFH-OST index (cutoff =9.1), which performed better than OSTA, had a sensitivity of 73.6% and a specificity of 72.7% for identifying osteoporosis, with an area under the receiver operating

  9. Objectively identifying landmark use and predicting flight trajectories of the homing pigeon using Gaussian processes.

    PubMed

    Mann, Richard; Freeman, Robin; Osborne, Michael; Garnett, Roman; Armstrong, Chris; Meade, Jessica; Biro, Dora; Guilford, Tim; Roberts, Stephen

    2011-02-01

    Pigeons home along idiosyncratic habitual routes from familiar locations. It has been suggested that memorized visual landmarks underpin this route learning. However, the inability to experimentally alter the landscape on large scales has hindered the discovery of the particular features to which birds attend. Here, we present a method for objectively classifying the most informative regions of animal paths. We apply this method to flight trajectories from homing pigeons to identify probable locations of salient visual landmarks. We construct and apply a Gaussian process model of flight trajectory generation for pigeons trained to home from specific release sites. The model shows increasing predictive power as the birds become familiar with the sites, mirroring the animal's learning process. We subsequently find that the most informative elements of the flight trajectories coincide with landscape features that have previously been suggested as important components of the homing task.

  10. Kernel mixture survival models for identifying cancer subtypes, predicting patient's cancer types and survival probabilities.

    PubMed

    Ando, Tomohiro; Imoto, Seiya; Miyano, Satoru

    2004-01-01

    One important application of microarray gene expression data is to study the relationship between the clinical phenotype of cancer patients and gene expression profiles on the whole-genome scale. The clinical phenotype includes several different types of cancers, survival times, relapse times, drug responses and so on. Under the situation that the subtypes of cancer have not been previously identified or known to exist, we develop a new kernel mixture modeling method that performs simultaneously identification of the subtype of cancer, prediction of the probabilities of both cancer type and patient's survival, and detection of a set of marker genes on which to base a diagnosis. The proposed method is successfully performed on real data analysis and simulation studies.

  11. Higher-order Lie symmetries in identifiability and predictability analysis of dynamic models.

    PubMed

    Merkt, Benjamin; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    Parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has manifold applications not only in physics but also in the life sciences. When estimating the ODE parameters from experimentally observed data, the modeler is frequently concerned with the question of parameter identifiability. The source of parameter nonidentifiability is tightly related to Lie group symmetries. In the present work, we establish a direct search algorithm for the determination of admitted Lie group symmetries. We clarify the relationship between admitted symmetries and parameter nonidentifiability. The proposed algorithm is applied to illustrative toy models as well as a data-based ODE model of the NFκB signaling pathway. We find that besides translations and scaling transformations also higher-order transformations play a role. Enabled by the knowledge about the explicit underlying symmetry transformations, we show how models with nonidentifiable parameters can still be employed to make reliable predictions.

  12. The Creation of Surrogate Models for Fast Estimation of Complex Model Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, W. Andrew; Hester, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    A surrogate model is a black box model that reproduces the output of another more complex model at a single time point. This is to be distinguished from the method of surrogate data, used in time series. The purpose of a surrogate is to reduce the time necessary for a computation at the cost of rigor and generality. We describe a method of constructing surrogates in the form of support vector machine (SVM) regressions for the purpose of exploring the parameter space of physiological models. Our focus is on the methodology of surrogate creation and accuracy assessment in comparison to the original model. This is done in the context of a simulation of hemorrhage in one model, “Small”, and renal denervation in another, HumMod. In both cases, the surrogate predicts the drop in mean arterial pressure following the intervention. We asked three questions concerning surrogate models: (1) how many training examples are necessary to obtain an accurate surrogate, (2) is surrogate accuracy homogeneous, and (3) how much can computation time be reduced when using a surrogate. We found the minimum training set size that would guarantee maximal accuracy was widely variable, but could be algorithmically generated. The average error for the pressure response to the protocols was -0.05±2.47 in Small, and -0.3 +/- 3.94 mmHg in HumMod. In the Small model, error grew with actual pressure drop, and in HumMod, larger pressure drops were overestimated by the surrogates. Surrogate use resulted in a 6 order of magnitude decrease in computation time. These results suggest surrogate modeling is a valuable tool for generating predictions of an integrative model’s behavior on densely sampled subsets of its parameter space. PMID:27258010

  13. Identifying and Tracking Pedestrians Based on Sensor Fusion and Motion Stability Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Musleh, Basam; García, Fernando; Otamendi, Javier; Armingol, José Mª; de la Escalera, Arturo

    2010-01-01

    The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem) and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem). Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle. PMID:22163639

  14. Prediction trajectory of moving target based on parameter identify in RLS filtering with forget factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yili; Tian, Yan; Li, Zhang

    2015-10-01

    A moving target should be missing from a photoelectric theodolite tracker, when the clouds and other special conditions encountered in the course of a theodolite tracking a moving object, and this condition should cause the interruption of tracking process. In view of this problem, an algorithm based on the frame of parameter identification and rolling prediction to trajectory was presented to predicting the target trajectory when it missing. Firstly, the article makes a specification of photoelectric theodolite and it operating mechanism detailed. The reasons of flying target imaging disappear from the field of theodolite telescope and the traditional solution to this problem, the least square curve fitting of trajectory quadratic function of time, were narrated secondly. The algorithm based on recursive least square with forget factor, identify the parameters of target motion using the data of position from single theodolite, then the forecasting trajectory of moving targets was presented afterwards ,in the filtering approach of past data rolling smooth with the weight of last procedure. By simulation with tracking moving targets synthetic corner from a real tracking routine of photoelectric theodolite, the algorithm was testified, and the simulation of curve fitting a quadratic function of time was compared at the last part.

  15. Identifying and tracking pedestrians based on sensor fusion and motion stability predictions.

    PubMed

    Musleh, Basam; García, Fernando; Otamendi, Javier; Armingol, José Maria; de la Escalera, Arturo

    2010-01-01

    The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem) and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem). Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle.

  16. Care of Patients at the End of Life: Surrogate Decision Making for Incapacitated Patients.

    PubMed

    Patel, Ami V; Ackermann, Richard J

    2016-08-01

    Competence is determined by a court of law, whereas physicians determine medical decision-making capacity (DMC). When patients lack DMC, a surrogate should be identified to make decisions. Ideally, patients will have created a durable power of attorney for health care. If a patient did not do this, state statutes specify which individuals can serve as surrogates; a current spouse typically is the first choice. Ideally, surrogates should use substituted judgment in making decisions. If this is not possible because the patient never shared end-of-life wishes with the surrogate, the surrogate can make decisions that, in the surrogate's opinion, are in the patient's best interests or that a reasonable individual would make. When no surrogate can be identified and a patient has no written advance directive, hospital ethics committees can assist with decisions, or, for some patients, a court will need to appoint a guardian. When there is a surrogate, difficulties can arise when family members disagree with the surrogate's decisions or when surrogates request treatments that, in the physician's opinion, would be futile or nonbeneficial. Hospital ethics committees may be able to assist in these situations, but appropriately conducted family meetings often resolve such difficulties. PMID:27490071

  17. On the processes generating latitudinal richness gradients: identifying diagnostic patterns and predictions

    PubMed Central

    Hurlbert, Allen H.; Stegen, James C.

    2014-01-01

    We use a simulation model to examine four of the most common hypotheses for the latitudinal richness gradient and identify patterns that might be diagnostic of those four hypotheses. The hypotheses examined include (1) tropical niche conservatism, or the idea that the tropics are more diverse because a tropical clade origin has allowed more time for diversification in the tropics and has resulted in few species adapted to extra-tropical climates. (2) The ecological limits hypothesis suggests that species richness is limited by the amount of biologically available energy in a region. (3) The speciation rates hypothesis suggests that the latitudinal gradient arises from a gradient in speciation rates. (4) Finally, the tropical stability hypothesis argues that climatic fluctuations and glacial cycles in extratropical regions have led to greater extinction rates and less opportunity for specialization relative to the tropics. We found that tropical niche conservatism can be distinguished from the other three scenarios by phylogenies which are more balanced than expected, no relationship between mean root distance (MRD) and richness across regions, and a homogeneous rate of speciation across clades and through time. The energy gradient, speciation gradient, and disturbance gradient scenarios all produced phylogenies which were more imbalanced than expected, showed a negative relationship between MRD and richness, and diversity-dependence of speciation rate estimates through time. We found that the relationship between speciation rates and latitude could distinguish among these three scenarios, with no relation expected under the ecological limits hypothesis, a negative relationship expected under the speciation rates hypothesis, and a positive relationship expected under the tropical stability hypothesis. We emphasize the importance of considering multiple hypotheses and focusing on diagnostic predictions instead of predictions that are consistent with multiple

  18. On the processes generating latitudinal richness gradients: identifying diagnostic patterns and predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Hurlbert, Allen H.; Stegen, James C.

    2014-12-02

    Many processes have been put forward to explain the latitudinal gradient in species richness. Here, we use a simulation model to examine four of the most common hypotheses and identify patterns that might be diagnostic of those four hypotheses. The hypotheses examined include (1) tropical niche conservatism, or the idea that the tropics are more diverse because a tropical clade origin has allowed more time for diversification in the tropics and has resulted in few species adapted to extra-tropical climates. (2) The productivity, or energetic constraints, hypothesis suggests that species richness is limited by the amount of biologically available energy in a region. (3) The tropical stability hypothesis argues that major climatic fluctuations and glacial cycles in extratropical regions have led to greater extinction rates and less opportunity for specialization relative to the tropics. (4) Finally, the speciation rates hypothesis suggests that the latitudinal richness gradient arises from a parallel gradient in rates of speciation. We found that tropical niche conservatism can be distinguished from the other three scenarios by phylogenies which are more balanced than expected, no relationship between mean root distance and richness across regions, and a homogeneous rate of speciation across clades and through time. The energy gradient, speciation gradient, and disturbance gradient scenarios all exhibited phylogenies which were more imbalanced than expected, showed a negative relationship between mean root distance and richness, and diversity-dependence of speciation rate estimates through time. Using Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures on the simulated phylogenies, we found that the relationship between speciation rates and latitude could distinguish among these three scenarios. We emphasize the importance of considering multiple hypotheses and focusing on diagnostic predictions instead of predictions that are consistent with more than one hypothesis.

  19. Convergence of Mutation and Epigenetic Alterations Identifies Common Genes in Cancer That Predict for Poor Prognosis

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Timothy A; Glockner, Sabine; Yi, Joo Mi; Chen, Wei; Van Neste, Leander; Cope, Leslie; Herman, James G; Velculescu, Victor; Schuebel, Kornel E; Ahuja, Nita; Baylin, Stephen B

    2008-01-01

    Background The identification and characterization of tumor suppressor genes has enhanced our understanding of the biology of cancer and enabled the development of new diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. Whereas in past decades, a handful of tumor suppressors have been slowly identified using techniques such as linkage analysis, large-scale sequencing of the cancer genome has enabled the rapid identification of a large number of genes that are mutated in cancer. However, determining which of these many genes play key roles in cancer development has proven challenging. Specifically, recent sequencing of human breast and colon cancers has revealed a large number of somatic gene mutations, but virtually all are heterozygous, occur at low frequency, and are tumor-type specific. We hypothesize that key tumor suppressor genes in cancer may be subject to mutation or hypermethylation. Methods and Findings Here, we show that combined genetic and epigenetic analysis of these genes reveals many with a higher putative tumor suppressor status than would otherwise be appreciated. At least 36 of the 189 genes newly recognized to be mutated are targets of promoter CpG island hypermethylation, often in both colon and breast cancer cell lines. Analyses of primary tumors show that 18 of these genes are hypermethylated strictly in primary cancers and often with an incidence that is much higher than for the mutations and which is not restricted to a single tumor-type. In the identical breast cancer cell lines in which the mutations were identified, hypermethylation is usually, but not always, mutually exclusive from genetic changes for a given tumor, and there is a high incidence of concomitant loss of expression. Sixteen out of 18 (89%) of these genes map to loci deleted in human cancers. Lastly, and most importantly, the reduced expression of a subset of these genes strongly correlates with poor clinical outcome. Conclusions Using an unbiased genome-wide approach, our analysis has

  20. Endocrine markers for identifying prolificacy potential and predicting fetal number in goats.

    PubMed

    Haldar, Avijit; Pal, Saumen K; Chakraborty, Sandip; Hazorika, Mausumi; Pan, Subhransu; Majumdar, Debasis; Biswas, Chanchal K; Patra, Aditi; Mirmahmoudi, Rouhollah; Prakash, Bukkaaraya S

    2013-07-01

    Identifying prolificacy potential and determination of fetal number during pregnancy for proper care and management of the pregnant goats bearing multiple fetuses and achieving the benefits out of multiple births are essential for sustainable goat farming. Our objectives were (1) to examine prolificacy potential in goats by using pituitary response to gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) challenge test, (2) to investigate hormonal profiles for the prediction of fetal number in pregnant goats and (3) to find out the most reliable timing of blood sampling for discriminating prolificacy trait and differentiating the goats bearing single, twin and triplet fetuses. In first experiment (GnRH challenge test), plasma FSH concentrations were significantly higher (P<0.01) among the goats belonging to triplet vs. twin vs. single kidding size groups after GnRH administration. Multivariate stepwise discriminant function analysis recognized that one blood sampling at 220min after GnRH administration can be used to distinguish prolificacy potential in goats. In second experiment, plasma progesterone levels were significantly higher (P<0.01) in goats bearing triplet vs. twin vs. single fetus between day 84 and 21 prior to parturition. Plasma estrone sulphate concentrations were found to be higher (P<0.05) in does bearing multiple fetuses than the does bearing single fetus between day 126 and 28 prior to parturition. A single blood sampling at day 63 prior to parturition was the most probable suitable time for discriminating kidding size by using plasma progesterone as marker. PMID:23787106

  1. Identifying Psychosocial Variables That Predict Safer Sex Intentions in Adolescents and Young Adults.

    PubMed

    Brüll, Phil; Ruiter, Robert A C; Wiers, Reinout W; Kok, Gerjo

    2016-01-01

    Young people are especially vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The triad of deliberate and effective safer sex behavior encompasses condom use, combined with additional information about a partner's sexual health, and the kind of sex acts usually performed. To identify psychosocial predictors of young people's intentions to have safer sex, as related to this triad, we conducted an online study with 211 sexually active participants aged between 18 and 24 years. Predictors [i.e., perceived behavioral control (PBC), subjective norms, and intention] taken from Fishbein and Ajzen's Reasoned Action Approach (RAA), were combined with more distal variables (e.g., behavioral inhibition, sensation seeking, parental monitoring, and knowledge about STIs). Beyond the highly predictive power of RAA variables, additional variance was explained by the number of instances of unprotected sexual intercourse (SI) during the last 12 months and reasons for using barrier protection during first SI. In particular, past condom non-use behavior moderated PBC related to intended condom use. Further, various distal variables showed significant univariate associations with intentions related to the three behaviors of interest. It may, therefore, be helpful to include measures of past behavior as well as certain additional distal variables in future safer sex programs designed to promote health-sustaining sexual behavior.

  2. Identifying Psychosocial Variables That Predict Safer Sex Intentions in Adolescents and Young Adults.

    PubMed

    Brüll, Phil; Ruiter, Robert A C; Wiers, Reinout W; Kok, Gerjo

    2016-01-01

    Young people are especially vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The triad of deliberate and effective safer sex behavior encompasses condom use, combined with additional information about a partner's sexual health, and the kind of sex acts usually performed. To identify psychosocial predictors of young people's intentions to have safer sex, as related to this triad, we conducted an online study with 211 sexually active participants aged between 18 and 24 years. Predictors [i.e., perceived behavioral control (PBC), subjective norms, and intention] taken from Fishbein and Ajzen's Reasoned Action Approach (RAA), were combined with more distal variables (e.g., behavioral inhibition, sensation seeking, parental monitoring, and knowledge about STIs). Beyond the highly predictive power of RAA variables, additional variance was explained by the number of instances of unprotected sexual intercourse (SI) during the last 12 months and reasons for using barrier protection during first SI. In particular, past condom non-use behavior moderated PBC related to intended condom use. Further, various distal variables showed significant univariate associations with intentions related to the three behaviors of interest. It may, therefore, be helpful to include measures of past behavior as well as certain additional distal variables in future safer sex programs designed to promote health-sustaining sexual behavior. PMID:27148520

  3. Identifying Precipitation Types Using Dual-Polarization-Based Radar and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, B. C.; Bradley, A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2015-12-01

    The recent upgrade of dual-polarization with NEXRAD radars has assisted in improving the characterization of microphysical processes in precipitation and thus has enabled precipitation estimation based on the identified precipitation types. While this polarimetric capability promises the potential for the enhanced accuracy in quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), recent studies show that the polarimetric estimates are still affected by uncertainties arising from the radar beam geometry/sampling space associated with the vertical variability of precipitation. The authors, first of all, focus on evaluating the NEXRAD hydrometeor classification product using ground reference data (e.g., ASOS) that provide simple categories of the observed precipitation types (e.g., rain, snow, and freezing rain). They also investigate classification uncertainty features caused by the variability of precipitation between the ground and the altitudes where radar samples. Since this variability is closely related to the atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature) at near surface, useful information (e.g., critical thickness and temperature profile) that is not available in radar observations is retrieved from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data such as Rapid Refresh (RAP)/High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). The NWP retrieved information and polarimetric radar data are used together to improve the accuracy of precipitation type identification at near surface. The authors highlight major improvements and discuss limitations in the real-time application.

  4. Learning impairments identified early in life are predictive of future impairments associated with aging

    PubMed Central

    Hullinger, Rikki; Burger, Corinna

    2016-01-01

    The Morris water maze (MWM) behavioral paradigm is commonly used to measure spatial learning and memory in rodents. It is widely accepted that performance in the MWM declines with age. However, young rats ubiquitously perform very well on established versions of the water maze, suggesting that more challenging tasks may be required to reveal subtle differences in young animals. Therefore, we have used a one-day water maze and novel object recognition to test whether more sensitive paradigms of memory in young animals could identify subtle cognitive impairments early in life that might become accentuated later with senescence. We have found that these two tasks reliably separate young rats into inferior and superior learners, are highly correlated, and that performance on these tasks early in life is predictive of performance at 12 months of age. Furthermore, we have found that repeated training in this task selectively improves the performance of inferior learners, suggesting that behavioral training from an early age may provide a buffer against age-related cognitive decline. PMID:26283528

  5. Identifying Psychosocial Variables That Predict Safer Sex Intentions in Adolescents and Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    Brüll, Phil; Ruiter, Robert A. C.; Wiers, Reinout W.; Kok, Gerjo

    2016-01-01

    Young people are especially vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The triad of deliberate and effective safer sex behavior encompasses condom use, combined with additional information about a partner’s sexual health, and the kind of sex acts usually performed. To identify psychosocial predictors of young people’s intentions to have safer sex, as related to this triad, we conducted an online study with 211 sexually active participants aged between 18 and 24 years. Predictors [i.e., perceived behavioral control (PBC), subjective norms, and intention] taken from Fishbein and Ajzen’s Reasoned Action Approach (RAA), were combined with more distal variables (e.g., behavioral inhibition, sensation seeking, parental monitoring, and knowledge about STIs). Beyond the highly predictive power of RAA variables, additional variance was explained by the number of instances of unprotected sexual intercourse (SI) during the last 12 months and reasons for using barrier protection during first SI. In particular, past condom non-use behavior moderated PBC related to intended condom use. Further, various distal variables showed significant univariate associations with intentions related to the three behaviors of interest. It may, therefore, be helpful to include measures of past behavior as well as certain additional distal variables in future safer sex programs designed to promote health-sustaining sexual behavior. PMID:27148520

  6. Relaxation rates for inverse power law particle interactions and their variable hard sphere surrogates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, Robert

    2015-11-01

    It is well known that collision models based on an assumed intermolecular potential (IPL, LJ, ...) can be successfully replaced by simplified surrogates (VHS, VSS, VS, ...) in DSMC calculations. But these surrogates only reproduce certain gross properties of the molecular model, for example, the temperature dependence of the viscosity; they do not approximate, and even mis-state, the details of the particle interactions. The success of the simplified models in problems at finite Knudsen number, where the Navier-Stokes approximation is not valid, may therefore seem surprising. To understand this success in a very special case, we showed that the first seven relaxation rates of the linearized Boltzmann equation for Maxwellian molecules are well approximated by the corresponding relaxation rates of its VHS surrogate. We will show that this analysis can be extended in somewhat less generality to IPL interactions, and to some extent to more realistic models including LJ. We believe that this analysis can help address the more general problem of identifying the properties of the collision model that dominate the predictions of the Boltzmann equation.

  7. MELANCHOLIC DEPRESSION PREDICTION BY IDENTIFYING REPRESENTATIVE FEATURES IN METABOLIC AND MICROARRAY PROFILES WITH MISSING VALUES

    PubMed Central

    Nie, Zhi; Yang, Tao; Liu, Yashu; Lin, Binbin; Li, Qingyang; Narayan, Vaibhav A; Wittenberg, Gayle; Ye, Jieping

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that melancholic depression, one major subtype of depression, is closely associated with the concentration of some metabolites and biological functions of certain genes and pathways. Meanwhile, recent advances in biotechnologies have allowed us to collect a large amount of genomic data, e.g., metabolites and microarray gene expression. With such a huge amount of information available, one approach that can give us new insights into the understanding of the fundamental biology underlying melancholic depression is to build disease status prediction models using classification or regression methods. However, the existence of strong empirical correlations, e.g., those exhibited by genes sharing the same biological pathway in microarray profiles, tremendously limits the performance of these methods. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing values which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications further complicates the problem. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of missing values might in some way benefit from the correlation between the variables and propose a method to learn a compressed set of representative features through an adapted version of sparse coding which is capable of identifying correlated variables and addressing the issue of missing values simultaneously. An efficient algorithm is also developed to solve the proposed formulation. We apply the proposed method on metabolic and microarray profiles collected from a group of subjects consisting of both patients with melancholic depression and healthy controls. Results show that the proposed method can not only produce meaningful clusters of variables but also generate a set of representative features that achieve superior classification performance over those generated by traditional clustering and data imputation techniques. In particular, on both datasets, we found that in comparison with the competing algorithms, the representative features learned by the proposed

  8. Shape Optimization by Bayesian-Validated Computer-Simulation Surrogates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patera, Anthony T.

    1997-01-01

    A nonparametric-validated, surrogate approach to optimization has been applied to the computational optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers and to the experimental optimization of a multielement airfoil. In addition to the baseline surrogate framework, a surrogate-Pareto framework has been applied to the two-criteria, eddy-promoter design problem. The Pareto analysis improves the predictability of the surrogate results, preserves generality, and provides a means to rapidly determine design trade-offs. Significant contributions have been made in the geometric description used for the eddy-promoter inclusions as well as to the surrogate framework itself. A level-set based, geometric description has been developed to define the shape of the eddy-promoter inclusions. The level-set technique allows for topology changes (from single-body,eddy-promoter configurations to two-body configurations) without requiring any additional logic. The continuity of the output responses for input variations that cross the boundary between topologies has been demonstrated. Input-output continuity is required for the straightforward application of surrogate techniques in which simplified, interpolative models are fitted through a construction set of data. The surrogate framework developed previously has been extended in a number of ways. First, the formulation for a general, two-output, two-performance metric problem is presented. Surrogates are constructed and validated for the outputs. The performance metrics can be functions of both outputs, as well as explicitly of the inputs, and serve to characterize the design preferences. By segregating the outputs and the performance metrics, an additional level of flexibility is provided to the designer. The validated outputs can be used in future design studies and the error estimates provided by the output validation step still apply, and require no additional appeals to the expensive analysis. Second, a candidate-based a posteriori

  9. Computationally efficient calibration of WATCLASS Hydrologic models using surrogate optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamali, M.; Ponnambalam, K.; Soulis, E. D.

    2007-07-01

    In this approach, exploration of the cost function space was performed with an inexpensive surrogate function, not the expensive original function. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) surrogate function, which is one type of approximate models, which takes correlation function for error was employed. The results for Monte Carlo Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) approximate model have been compared. The results show that DACE model has a good potential for predicting the trend of simulation results. The case study of this document was WATCLASS hydrologic model calibration on Smokey-River watershed.

  10. Adaptive Surrogate Modeling for Expedited Estimation of Nonlinear Tissue Properties Through Inverse Finite Element Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Halloran, Jason P.; Erdemir, Ahmet

    2011-01-01

    Simulation-based prediction of specimen-specific biomechanical behavior commonly requires inverse analysis using geometrically consistent finite element (FE) models. Optimization drives such analyses but previous studies have highlighted a large computational cost dictated by iterative use of nonlinear FE models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of a local regression-based adaptive surrogate modeling approach to decrease computational cost for both global and local optimization approaches using an inverse FE application. Nonlinear elastic material parameters for patient-specific heel-pad tissue were found, both with and without the surrogate model. Surrogate prediction replaced a FE simulation using local regression of previous simulations when the corresponding error estimate was less than a given tolerance. Performance depended on optimization type and tolerance value. The surrogate reduced local optimization expense up to 68%, but achieved accurate results for only 1 of 20 initial conditions. Conversely, up to a tolerance value of 20 N2, global optimization with the surrogate yielded consistent parameter predictions with a concurrent decrease in computational cost (up to 77%). However, the local optimization method without the surrogate, although sensitive to the initial conditions, was still on average seven times faster than the global approach. Our results help establish guide-lines for setting acceptable tolerance values while using an adaptive surrogate model for inverse FE analysis. Most important, the study demonstrates the benefits of a surrogate modeling approach for intensive FE-based iterative analysis. PMID:21544674

  11. Evaluating two sparse grid surrogates and two adaptation criteria for groundwater Bayesian uncertainty quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Xiankui; Ye, Ming; Burkardt, John; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Dong; Zhu, Xiaobin

    2016-04-01

    Sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation methods have been recently used to build accurate but cheap-to-run surrogates for groundwater models to reduce the computational burden of Bayesian uncertainty analysis. The surrogates can be built for either a log-likelihood function or state variables such as hydraulic head and solute concentration. Using a synthetic groundwater flow model, this study evaluates the log-likelihood and head surrogates in terms of the computational cost of building them, the accuracy of the surrogates, and the accuracy of the distributions of model parameters and predictions obtained using the surrogates. The head surrogates outperform the log-likelihood surrogates for the following four reasons: (1) the shape of the head response surface is smoother than that of the log-likelihood response surface in parameter space, (2) the head variation is smaller than the log-likelihood variation in parameter space, (3) the interpolation error of the head surrogates does not accumulate to be larger than the interpolation error of the log-likelihood surrogates, and (4) the model simulations needed for building one head surrogate can be recycled for building others. For both log-likelihood and head surrogates, adaptive sparse grids are built using two indicators: absolute error and relative error. The adaptive head surrogates are insensitive to the error indicators, because the ratio between the two indicators is hydraulic head, which has small variation in the parameter space. The adaptive log-likelihood surrogates based on the relative error indicators outperform those based on the absolute error indicators, because adaptation based on the relative error indicator puts more sparse-grid nodes in the areas in the parameter space where the log-likelihood is high. While our numerical study suggests building state-variable surrogates and using the relative error indicator for building log-likelihood surrogates, selecting appropriate type of surrogates and

  12. Surrogate Modeling of Deformable Joint Contact using Artificial Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J.

    2016-01-01

    Deformable joint contact models can be used to estimate loading conditions for cartilage-cartilage, implant-implant, human-orthotic, and foot-ground interactions. However, contact evaluations are often so expensive computationally that they can be prohibitive for simulations or optimizations requiring thousands or even millions of contact evaluations. To overcome this limitation, we developed a novel surrogate contact modeling method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The method uses special sampling techniques to gather input-output data points from an original (slow) contact model in multiple domains of input space, where each domain represents a different physical situation likely to be encountered. For each contact force and torque output by the original contact model, a multi-layer feed-forward ANN is defined, trained, and incorporated into a surrogate contact model. As an evaluation problem, we created an ANN-based surrogate contact model of an artificial tibiofemoral joint using over 75,000 evaluations of a fine-grid elastic foundation (EF) contact model. The surrogate contact model computed contact forces and torques about 1000 times faster than a less accurate coarse grid EF contact model. Furthermore, the surrogate contact model was seven times more accurate than the coarse grid EF contact model within the input domain of a walking motion. For larger input domains, the surrogate contact model showed the expected trend of increasing error with increasing domain size. In addition, the surrogate contact model was able to identify out-of-contact situations with high accuracy. Computational contact models created using our proposed ANN approach may remove an important computational bottleneck from musculoskeletal simulations or optimizations incorporating deformable joint contact models. PMID:26220591

  13. Dynamic impact indentation of hydrated biological tissues and tissue surrogate gels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilke Kalcioglu, Z.; Qu, Meng; Strawhecker, Kenneth E.; Shazly, Tarek; Edelman, Elazer; VanLandingham, Mark R.; Smith, James F.; Van Vliet, Krystyn J.

    2011-03-01

    For both materials engineering research and applied biomedicine, a growing need exists to quantify mechanical behaviour of tissues under defined hydration and loading conditions. In particular, characterisation under dynamic contact-loading conditions can enable quantitative predictions of deformation due to high rate 'impact' events typical of industrial accidents and ballistic insults. The impact indentation responses were examined of both hydrated tissues and candidate tissue surrogate materials. The goals of this work were to determine the mechanical response of fully hydrated soft tissues under defined dynamic loading conditions, and to identify design principles by which synthetic, air-stable polymers could mimic those responses. Soft tissues from two organs (liver and heart), a commercially available tissue surrogate gel (Perma-Gel™) and three styrenic block copolymer gels were investigated. Impact indentation enabled quantification of resistance to penetration and energy dissipative constants under the rates and energy densities of interest for tissue surrogate applications. These analyses indicated that the energy dissipation capacity under dynamic impact increased with increasing diblock concentration in the styrenic gels. Under the impact rates employed (2 mm/s to 20 mm/s, corresponding to approximate strain energy densities from 0.4 kJ/m3 to 20 kJ/m3), the energy dissipation capacities of fully hydrated soft tissues were ultimately well matched by a 50/50 triblock/diblock composition that is stable in ambient environments. More generally, the methodologies detailed here facilitate further optimisation of impact energy dissipation capacity of polymer-based tissue surrogate materials, either in air or in fluids.

  14. Biodegradation of naphthenic acid surrogates by axenic cultures.

    PubMed

    Yue, Siqing; Ramsay, Bruce A; Ramsay, Juliana A

    2015-07-01

    This is the first study to report that bacteria from the genera Ochrobactrum, Brevundimonas and Bacillus can be isolated by growth on naphthenic acids (NAs) extracted from oil sands process water (OSPW). These pure cultures were screened for their ability to use a range of aliphatic, cyclic and aromatic NA surrogates in 96-well microtiter plates using water-soluble tetrazolium redox dyes (Biolog Redox Dye H) as the indicator of metabolic activity. Of the three cultures, Ochrobactrum showed most metabolic activity on the widest range of NA surrogates. Brevundomonas and especially Ochrobactrum had higher metabolic activity on polycyclic aromatic compounds than other classes of NA surrogates. Bacillus also oxidized a wide range of NA surrogates but not as well as Ochrobactrum. Using this method to characterize NA utilisation, one can identify which NAs or NA classes in OSPW are more readily degraded. Since aromatic NAs have been shown to have an estrogenic effect and polycyclic monoaromatic compounds have been suggested to pose the greatest environmental threat among the NAs, these bacterial genera may play an important role in detoxification of OSPW. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that bacteria belonging to the genera Ochrobactrum and Bacillus can also degrade surrogates of tricyclic NAs.

  15. On the use of abiotic surrogates to describe marine benthic biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McArthur, M. A.; Brooke, B. P.; Przeslawski, R.; Ryan, D. A.; Lucieer, V. L.; Nichol, S.; McCallum, A. W.; Mellin, C.; Cresswell, I. D.; Radke, L. C.

    2010-06-01

    are not direct drivers of biodiversity patterns but often correspond with driving gradients and can be of some use in prediction. In such cases it would be better to identify what the spatial variable is acting as a proxy for so boundaries for that variable are not overlooked. The utility of these potential surrogates vary across spatial scales, quality of data, and management needs. A continued focus on surrogate research will address the need of marine scientists and resource managers worldwide for accurate and robust predictions, extending from simple measures of diversity to species distributions and patterns of assemblage.

  16. Predicting crash risk and identifying crash precursors on Korean expressways using loop detector data.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Ho-Chan; Kho, Seungyoung

    2016-03-01

    In order to improve traffic safety on expressways, it is important to develop proactive safety management strategies with consideration for segment types and traffic flow states because crash mechanisms have some differences by each condition. The primary objective of this study is to develop real-time crash risk prediction models for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways. The mainline of expressways is divided into basic segment and ramp vicinity, and the traffic flow states are classified into uncongested and congested conditions. Also, Korean expressways have irregular intervals between loop detector stations. Therefore, we investigated on the effect and application of the detector stations at irregular intervals for the crash risk prediction on expressways. The most significant traffic variables were selected by conditional logistic regression analysis which could control confounding factors. Based on the selected traffic variables, separate models to predict crash risk were developed using genetic programming technique. The model estimation results showed that the traffic flow characteristics leading to crashes are differed by segment type and traffic flow state. Especially, the variables related to the intervals between detector stations had a significant influence on crash risk prediction under the uncongested condition. Finally, compared with the single model for all crashes and the logistic models used in previous studies, the proposed models showed higher prediction performance. The results of this study can be applied to develop more effective proactive safety management strategies for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways with loop detector stations at irregular intervals. PMID:26710266

  17. Predicting crash risk and identifying crash precursors on Korean expressways using loop detector data.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Ho-Chan; Kho, Seungyoung

    2016-03-01

    In order to improve traffic safety on expressways, it is important to develop proactive safety management strategies with consideration for segment types and traffic flow states because crash mechanisms have some differences by each condition. The primary objective of this study is to develop real-time crash risk prediction models for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways. The mainline of expressways is divided into basic segment and ramp vicinity, and the traffic flow states are classified into uncongested and congested conditions. Also, Korean expressways have irregular intervals between loop detector stations. Therefore, we investigated on the effect and application of the detector stations at irregular intervals for the crash risk prediction on expressways. The most significant traffic variables were selected by conditional logistic regression analysis which could control confounding factors. Based on the selected traffic variables, separate models to predict crash risk were developed using genetic programming technique. The model estimation results showed that the traffic flow characteristics leading to crashes are differed by segment type and traffic flow state. Especially, the variables related to the intervals between detector stations had a significant influence on crash risk prediction under the uncongested condition. Finally, compared with the single model for all crashes and the logistic models used in previous studies, the proposed models showed higher prediction performance. The results of this study can be applied to develop more effective proactive safety management strategies for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways with loop detector stations at irregular intervals.

  18. Bedload-surrogate monitoring technologies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gray, John R.; Laronne, Jonathan B.; Marr, Jeffrey D.G.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in technologies for quantifying bedload fluxes and in some cases bedload size distributions in rivers show promise toward supplanting traditional physical samplers and sampling methods predicated on the collection and analysis of physical bedload samples. Four workshops held from 2002 to 2007 directly or peripherally addressed bedload-surrogate technologies, and results from these workshops have been compiled to evaluate the state-of-the-art in bedload monitoring. Papers from the 2007 workshop are published for the first time with this report. Selected research and publications since the 2007 workshop also are presented. Traditional samplers used for some or all of the last eight decades include box or basket samplers, pan or tray samplers, pressure-difference samplers, and trough or pit samplers. Although still useful, the future niche of these devices may be as a means for calibrating bedload-surrogate technologies operating with active- and passive-type sensors, in many cases continuously and automatically at a river site. Active sensors include acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), sonar, radar, and smart sensors. Passive sensors include geophones (pipes or plates) in direct contact with the streambed, hydrophones deployed in the water column, impact columns, and magnetic detection. The ADCP for sand and geophones for gravel are currently the most developed techniques, several of which have been calibrated under both laboratory and field conditions. Although none of the bedload-surrogate technologies described herein are broadly accepted for use in large-scale monitoring programs, several are under evaluation. The benefits of verifying and operationally deploying selected bedload-surrogate monitoring technologies could be considerable, providing for more frequent and consistent, less expensive, and arguably more accurate bedload data obtained with reduced personal risk for use in managing the world's sedimentary resources. Twenty-six papers are

  19. Paper Highlight: Biomarker Identified for Predicting Early Prostate Cancer Aggressiveness — Site

    Cancer.gov

    A team led by Cory Abate-Shen, Michael Shen, and Andrea Califano at Columbia University found that measuring the expression levels of three genes associated with aging can be used to predict the aggressiveness of seemingly low-risk prostate cancer.

  20. Using Standardized Tests to Identify Prior Knowledge Necessary for Success in Algebra: A Predictive Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jensen, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    This study sought to determine if there is a relationship between students' scores on the eighth-grade Indiana State Test of Education Progress Plus (ISTEP+) exam and success on Indiana's Algebra End-of-Course Assessment (ECA). Additionally, it sought to determine if algebra success could be significantly predicted by the achievement in one or…

  1. Identifying Factors That Predict Student Engagement in Web-Based Coursework.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moan, Eugene R.; Dereshiwsky, Mary I.

    2002-01-01

    Discussion of student engagement in Web instruction focuses on which facets of online learning, as measured by the Western Governors University Distance Education Self-Test, predict levels and types of student engagement in Web coursework. Highlights include learning styles; time management skills; and the lack of a need for face-to-face…

  2. Taxi-Aware Map: Identifying and Predicting Vacant Taxis in the City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phithakkitnukoon, Santi; Veloso, Marco; Bento, Carlos; Biderman, Assaf; Ratti, Carlo

    Knowing where vacant taxis are and will be at a given time and location helps the users in daily planning and scheduling, as well as the taxi service providers in dispatching. In this paper, we present a predictive model for the number of vacant taxis in a given area based on time of the day, day of the week, and weather condition. The history is used to build the prior probability distributions for our inference engine, which is based on the naïve Bayesian classifier with developed error-based learning algorithm and method for detecting adequacy of historical data using mutual information. Based on 150 taxis in Lisbon, Portugal, we are able to predict for each hour with the overall error rate of 0.8 taxis per 1x1 km2 area.

  3. Local barrier dysfunction identified by confocal laser endomicroscopy predicts relapse in inflammatory bowel disease

    PubMed Central

    Kiesslich, R; Duckworth, C A; Moussata, D; Gloeckner, A; Lim, L G; Goetz, M; Pritchard, D M; Galle, P R; Neurath, M F

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Loss of intestinal barrier function plays an important role in the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Shedding of intestinal epithelial cells is a potential cause of barrier loss during inflammation. The objectives of the study were (1) to determine whether cell shedding and barrier loss in humans can be detected by confocal endomicroscopy and (2) whether these parameters predict relapse of IBD. Methods Confocal endomicroscopy was performed in IBD and control patients using intravenous fluorescein to determine the relationship between cell shedding and local barrier dysfunction. A grading system based on appearances at confocal endomicroscopy in humans was devised and used to predict relapse in a prospective pilot study of 47 patients with ulcerative colitis and 11 patients with Crohn's disease. Results Confocal endomicroscopy in humans detected shedding epithelial cells and local barrier defects as plumes of fluorescein effluxing through the epithelium. Mouse experiments demonstrated inward flow through some leakage-associated shedding events, which was increased when luminal osmolarity was decreased. In IBD patients in clinical remission, increased cell shedding with fluorescein leakage was associated with subsequent relapse within 12 months after endomicroscopic examination (p<0.001). The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for the grading system to predict a flare were 62.5% (95% CI 40.8% to 80.4%), 91.2% (95% CI 75.2 to 97.7) and 79% (95% CI 57.7 to 95.5), respectively. Conclusions Cell shedding and barrier loss detected by confocal endomicroscopy predicts relapse of IBD and has potential as a diagnostic tool for the management of the disease. PMID:22115910

  4. Predictive markers of capecitabine sensitivity identified from the expression profile of pyrimidine nucleoside-metabolizing enzymes.

    PubMed

    Yasuno, Hideyuki; Kurasawa, Mitsue; Yanagisawa, Mieko; Sato, Yasuko; Harada, Naoki; Mori, Kazushige

    2013-02-01

    Molecular markers predicting sensitivity to anticancer drugs are important and useful not only for selecting potential responders but also for developing new combinations. In the present study, we analyzed the difference in the sensitivity of xenograft models to capecitabine (Xeloda®), 5'-deoxy-5-fluorouridine (5'-DFUR, doxifluridine, Furtulon®) and 5-FU by comparing the mRNA levels of 12 pyrimidine nucleoside-metabolizing enzymes. Amounts of mRNA in the tumor tissues of 80 xenograft models were determined by real-time RT-PCR and mutual correlations were examined. A clustering analysis revealed that the 12 enzymes were divided into two groups; one group consisted of 8 enzymes, including orotate phosphoribosyl transferase (OPRT), TMP kinase (TMPK) and UMP kinase (UMPK), and was related to the de novo synthesis pathway for nucleotides, with mRNA expression levels showing significant mutual correlation. In the other group, 4 enzymes, including thymidine phosphorylase (TP) and dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD), were involved in the salvage/degradation pathway of the nucleotides, and the mRNA levels of this group were dispersed more widely than that of the de novo group. Antitumor activity was assessed in 24 xenograft models for each drug. The antitumor activity of capecitabine and 5'-DFUR correlated significantly with the mRNA levels of TP and with the TP/DPD ratio, whereas the activity of 5-FU correlated significantly with OPRT, TMPK, UMPK and CD. In a stepwise regression analysis, TP and DPD were found to be independent predictive factors of sensitivity to capecitabine and 5'-DFUR, and UMPK was predictive of sensitivity to 5-FU. These results indicate that the predictive factors for sensitivity to capecitabine and 5'-DFUR in xenograft models may be different from those for 5-FU, suggesting that these drugs may have different responders in clinical usage. PMID:23229803

  5. An empirical assessment and comparison of species-based and habitat-based surrogates: a case study of forest vertebrates and large old trees.

    PubMed

    Lindenmayer, David B; Barton, Philip S; Lane, Peter W; Westgate, Martin J; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Gibbons, Philip; Likens, Gene E

    2014-01-01

    A holy grail of conservation is to find simple but reliable measures of environmental change to guide management. For example, particular species or particular habitat attributes are often used as proxies for the abundance or diversity of a subset of other taxa. However, the efficacy of such kinds of species-based surrogates and habitat-based surrogates is rarely assessed, nor are different kinds of surrogates compared in terms of their relative effectiveness. We use 30-year datasets on arboreal marsupials and vegetation structure to quantify the effectiveness of: (1) the abundance of a particular species of arboreal marsupial as a species-based surrogate for other arboreal marsupial taxa, (2) hollow-bearing tree abundance as a habitat-based surrogate for arboreal marsupial abundance, and (3) a combination of species- and habitat-based surrogates. We also quantify the robustness of species-based and habitat-based surrogates over time. We then use the same approach to model overall species richness of arboreal marsupials. We show that a species-based surrogate can appear to be a valid surrogate until a habitat-based surrogate is co-examined, after which the effectiveness of the former is lost. The addition of a species-based surrogate to a habitat-based surrogate made little difference in explaining arboreal marsupial abundance, but altered the co-occurrence relationship between species. Hence, there was limited value in simultaneously using a combination of kinds of surrogates. The habitat-based surrogate also generally performed significantly better and was easier and less costly to gather than the species-based surrogate. We found that over 30 years of study, the relationships which underpinned the habitat-based surrogate generally remained positive but variable over time. Our work highlights why it is important to compare the effectiveness of different broad classes of surrogates and identify situations when either species- or habitat-based surrogates are likely

  6. An Empirical Assessment and Comparison of Species-Based and Habitat-Based Surrogates: A Case Study of Forest Vertebrates and Large Old Trees

    PubMed Central

    Lindenmayer, David B.; Barton, Philip S.; Lane, Peter W.; Westgate, Martin J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Gibbons, Philip; Likens, Gene E.

    2014-01-01

    A holy grail of conservation is to find simple but reliable measures of environmental change to guide management. For example, particular species or particular habitat attributes are often used as proxies for the abundance or diversity of a subset of other taxa. However, the efficacy of such kinds of species-based surrogates and habitat-based surrogates is rarely assessed, nor are different kinds of surrogates compared in terms of their relative effectiveness. We use 30-year datasets on arboreal marsupials and vegetation structure to quantify the effectiveness of: (1) the abundance of a particular species of arboreal marsupial as a species-based surrogate for other arboreal marsupial taxa, (2) hollow-bearing tree abundance as a habitat-based surrogate for arboreal marsupial abundance, and (3) a combination of species- and habitat-based surrogates. We also quantify the robustness of species-based and habitat-based surrogates over time. We then use the same approach to model overall species richness of arboreal marsupials. We show that a species-based surrogate can appear to be a valid surrogate until a habitat-based surrogate is co-examined, after which the effectiveness of the former is lost. The addition of a species-based surrogate to a habitat-based surrogate made little difference in explaining arboreal marsupial abundance, but altered the co-occurrence relationship between species. Hence, there was limited value in simultaneously using a combination of kinds of surrogates. The habitat-based surrogate also generally performed significantly better and was easier and less costly to gather than the species-based surrogate. We found that over 30 years of study, the relationships which underpinned the habitat-based surrogate generally remained positive but variable over time. Our work highlights why it is important to compare the effectiveness of different broad classes of surrogates and identify situations when either species- or habitat-based surrogates are likely

  7. Mechanical Properties of K Basin Sludge Constituents and Their Surrogates

    SciTech Connect

    Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.; Chenault, Jeffrey W.

    2004-12-06

    A survey of the technical literature was performed to summarize the mechanical properties of inorganic components in K Basins sludge. The components included gibbsite, ferrihydrite, lepidocrocite and goethite, hematite, quartz, anorthite, calcite, basalt, Zircaloy, aluminum, and, in particular, irradiated uranium metal and uranium dioxide. Review of the technical literature showed that information on the hardness of uranium metal at irradiation exposures similar to those experienced by the N Reactor fuel present in the K Basins (typically up to 3000 MWd/t) were not available. Measurements therefore were performed to determine the hardness of coupons taken from three irradiated N Reactor uranium metal fuel elements taken from K Basins. Hardness values averaged 30 {+-} 8 Rockwell C units, similar to values previously reported for uranium irradiated to {approx}1200 MWd/t. The physical properties of candidate uranium metal and uranium dioxide surrogates were gathered and compared. Surrogates having properties closest to those of irradiated uranium metal appear to be alloys of tungsten. The surrogate for uranium dioxide, present both as particles and agglomerates in actual K Basin sludge, likely requires two materials. Cerium oxide, CeO2, was identified as a surrogate of the smaller UO2 particles while steel grit was identified for the UO2 agglomerates.

  8. Predicting General Academic Performance and Identifying the Differential Contribution of Participating Variables Using Artificial Neural Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musso, Mariel F.; Kyndt, Eva; Cascallar, Eduardo C.; Dochy, Filip

    2013-01-01

    Many studies have explored the contribution of different factors from diverse theoretical perspectives to the explanation of academic performance. These factors have been identified as having important implications not only for the study of learning processes, but also as tools for improving curriculum designs, tutorial systems, and students'…

  9. Majority-Minority Influence: Identifying Argumentative Patterns and Predicting Argument-Outcome Links.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyers, Renee A.; Brashers, Dale E.; Hanner, Jennifer

    2000-01-01

    Identifies patterns of argument that characterize majority and minority communication in 34 discussions among small groups of students in decision-making situations. Finds that winning and losing subgroups argue differently (as do minority and majority subgroups overall) and that consistency in argument is a strong predictor of subgroup success.…

  10. Identifying the Factors That Predict Degree Completion for Entirely Online Community College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brock, Kishia R.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research study was to identify demographic characteristics, academic factors, and student behaviors that contributed to successful degree and certificate completion for entirely online, nontraditional undergraduate students at a large community college. A discrete-time event history analysis was used to model the retention of…

  11. Predicting the Unpredictable? Identifying High-Risk versus Low-Risk Parents with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates "high-risk"…

  12. Identifying predictive clinical characteristics of the treatment efficacy of mirtazapine monotherapy for major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    Tsutsumi, Takahiro; Sugawara, Hiroko; Ito, Ryoko; Asano, Mizuho; Shimizu, Satoru; Ishigooka, Jun; Nishimura, Katsuji

    2016-01-01

    Background Mirtazapine, which is classified as a noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressant, is widely prescribed for the treatment of major depressive disorder. The potential predictive factors of the efficacy of mirtazapine and the tolerability based on the incidence of oversedation and jitteriness/anxiety syndrome were evaluated. Patients and methods Patients with major depressive disorder were retrospectively investigated. Study subjects comprised 68 patients with depression who received mirtazapine as an initial antidepressant at the Department of Psychiatry of the Tokyo Women’s Medical University Hospital from September 2009 to March 2013. The efficacy of mirtazapine monotherapy was evaluated based on the Clinical Global Impression Improvement score. Clinical characteristics were compared between remission and nonremission groups to determine the factors predicting the efficacy. Moreover, discontinuation rates due to adverse effects, including oversedation and jitteriness/anxiety syndrome, were examined, and the effects of confounding factors were evaluated. Results The remission rate of mirtazapine monotherapy was 36.8% among the 68 enrolled subjects. The mean final doses in the remission and nonremission groups were 27.6±13.5 mg and 26.0±14.1 mg, respectively, and there was no significant difference between them. Multiple logistic analyses revealed that the absence of guilt (odds ratio [OR] =0.15; 95% CI [1.66–37.24], P=0.006) and the presence of psychomotor retardation (OR =4.30; 95% CI [1.30–16.60], P=0.016) were significantly related to the efficacy of mirtazapine monotherapy. The discontinuation rates due to oversedation and jitteriness/anxiety syndrome were 13.2% and 11.8%, respectively. Age did not differ significantly between patients with or without oversedation or jitteriness/anxiety syndrome (P=0.078 and P=0.579, respectively). Conclusion The absence of guilt and the presence of psychomotor retardation may predict the efficacy

  13. Identifying the role of Wilms tumor 1 associated protein in cancer prediction using integrative genomic analyses.

    PubMed

    Wu, Li-Sheng; Qian, Jia-Yi; Wang, Minghai; Yang, Haiwei

    2016-09-01

    The Wilms tumor suppressor, WT1 was first identified due to its essential role in the normal development of the human genitourinary system. Wilms tumor 1 associated protein (WTAP) was subsequently revealed to interact with WT1 using yeast two-hybrid screening. The present study identified 44 complete WTAP genes in the genomes of vertebrates, including fish, amphibians, birds and mammals. The vertebrate WTAP proteins clustered into the primate, rodent and teleost lineages using phylogenetic tree analysis. From 1,347 available SNPs in the human WTAP gene, 19 were identified to cause missense mutations. WTAP was expressed in bladder, blood, brain, breast, colorectal, esophagus, eye, head and neck, lung, ovarian, prostate, skin and soft tissue cancers. A total of 17 out of 328 microarrays demonstrated an association between WTAP gene expression and cancer prognosis. However, the association between WTAP gene expression and prognosis varied in distinct types of cancer, and even in identical types of cancer from separate microarray databases. By searching the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer database, 65 somatic mutations were identified in the human WTAP gene from the cancer tissue samples. These results suggest that the function of WTAP in tumor formation may be multidimensional. Furthermore, signal transducer and activator of transcription 1, forkhead box protein O1, interferon regulatory factor 1, glucocorticoid receptor and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ transcription factor binding sites were identified in the upstream (promoter) region of the human WTAP gene, suggesting that these transcription factors may be involved in WTAP functions in tumor formation. PMID:27430156

  14. Surrogate Reactions in the Actinide Region

    SciTech Connect

    Burke, J T; Bernstein, L A; Scielzo, N D; Bleuel, D L; Lesher, S R; Escher, J; Ahle, L; Dietrich, F S; Hoffman, R D; Norman, E B; Sheets, S A; Phair, L; Fallon, P; Clark, R M; Gibelin, J; Jewett, C; Lee, I Y; Macchiavelli, A O; McMahan, M A; Moretto, L G; Rodriguez-Vieitez, E; Wiedeking, M; Lyles, B F; Beausang, C W; Allmond, J M; Ai, H; Cizewski, J A; Hatarik, R; O'Malley, P D; Swan, T

    2008-01-30

    Over the past three years we have studied various surrogate reactions (d,p), ({sup 3}He,t), ({alpha},{alpha}{prime}) on several uranium isotopes {sup 234}U, {sup 235}U, {sup 236}U, and {sup 238}U. An overview of the STARS/LIBERACE surrogate research program as it pertains to the actinides is discussed. A summary of results to date will be presented along with a discussion of experimental difficulties encountered in surrogate experiments and future research directions.

  15. Prospective large-scale field study generates predictive model identifying major contributors to colony losses.

    PubMed

    Kielmanowicz, Merav Gleit; Inberg, Alex; Lerner, Inbar Maayan; Golani, Yael; Brown, Nicholas; Turner, Catherine Louise; Hayes, Gerald J R; Ballam, Joan M

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade, unusually high losses of colonies have been reported by beekeepers across the USA. Multiple factors such as Varroa destructor, bee viruses, Nosema ceranae, weather, beekeeping practices, nutrition, and pesticides have been shown to contribute to colony losses. Here we describe a large-scale controlled trial, in which different bee pathogens, bee population, and weather conditions across winter were monitored at three locations across the USA. In order to minimize influence of various known contributing factors and their interaction, the hives in the study were not treated with antibiotics or miticides. Additionally, the hives were kept at one location and were not exposed to potential stress factors associated with migration. Our results show that a linear association between load of viruses (DWV or IAPV) in Varroa and bees is present at high Varroa infestation levels (>3 mites per 100 bees). The collection of comprehensive data allowed us to draw a predictive model of colony losses and to show that Varroa destructor, along with bee viruses, mainly DWV replication, contributes to approximately 70% of colony losses. This correlation further supports the claim that insufficient control of the virus-vectoring Varroa mite would result in increased hive loss. The predictive model also indicates that a single factor may not be sufficient to trigger colony losses, whereas a combination of stressors appears to impact hive health. PMID:25875764

  16. Prospective large-scale field study generates predictive model identifying major contributors to colony losses.

    PubMed

    Kielmanowicz, Merav Gleit; Inberg, Alex; Lerner, Inbar Maayan; Golani, Yael; Brown, Nicholas; Turner, Catherine Louise; Hayes, Gerald J R; Ballam, Joan M

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade, unusually high losses of colonies have been reported by beekeepers across the USA. Multiple factors such as Varroa destructor, bee viruses, Nosema ceranae, weather, beekeeping practices, nutrition, and pesticides have been shown to contribute to colony losses. Here we describe a large-scale controlled trial, in which different bee pathogens, bee population, and weather conditions across winter were monitored at three locations across the USA. In order to minimize influence of various known contributing factors and their interaction, the hives in the study were not treated with antibiotics or miticides. Additionally, the hives were kept at one location and were not exposed to potential stress factors associated with migration. Our results show that a linear association between load of viruses (DWV or IAPV) in Varroa and bees is present at high Varroa infestation levels (>3 mites per 100 bees). The collection of comprehensive data allowed us to draw a predictive model of colony losses and to show that Varroa destructor, along with bee viruses, mainly DWV replication, contributes to approximately 70% of colony losses. This correlation further supports the claim that insufficient control of the virus-vectoring Varroa mite would result in increased hive loss. The predictive model also indicates that a single factor may not be sufficient to trigger colony losses, whereas a combination of stressors appears to impact hive health.

  17. Prospective Large-Scale Field Study Generates Predictive Model Identifying Major Contributors to Colony Losses

    PubMed Central

    Kielmanowicz, Merav Gleit; Inberg, Alex; Lerner, Inbar Maayan; Golani, Yael; Brown, Nicholas; Turner, Catherine Louise; Hayes, Gerald J. R.; Ballam, Joan M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decade, unusually high losses of colonies have been reported by beekeepers across the USA. Multiple factors such as Varroa destructor, bee viruses, Nosema ceranae, weather, beekeeping practices, nutrition, and pesticides have been shown to contribute to colony losses. Here we describe a large-scale controlled trial, in which different bee pathogens, bee population, and weather conditions across winter were monitored at three locations across the USA. In order to minimize influence of various known contributing factors and their interaction, the hives in the study were not treated with antibiotics or miticides. Additionally, the hives were kept at one location and were not exposed to potential stress factors associated with migration. Our results show that a linear association between load of viruses (DWV or IAPV) in Varroa and bees is present at high Varroa infestation levels (>3 mites per 100 bees). The collection of comprehensive data allowed us to draw a predictive model of colony losses and to show that Varroa destructor, along with bee viruses, mainly DWV replication, contributes to approximately 70% of colony losses. This correlation further supports the claim that insufficient control of the virus-vectoring Varroa mite would result in increased hive loss. The predictive model also indicates that a single factor may not be sufficient to trigger colony losses, whereas a combination of stressors appears to impact hive health. PMID:25875764

  18. Dioxin surrogates - are there any meaningful ones?

    SciTech Connect

    Rigo, H.G.

    1997-12-01

    A number of easily measured pollutants have been offered up as dioxin surrogates - easily measured pollutants or process variables that consistently parallel dioxin emissions. Surrogates are a very attractive concept because the expense of direct dioxin measurement could be avoided. Also, the public can be assured that as long as easily and potentially continuously measured surrogates are within acceptable limits, people are not being exposed to excessive amounts of pollution. The question remains, however, is there a meaningful surrogate at conventionally regulated levels? Or, perhaps more importantly, at elevated levels that provide a comfortable margin of safety between normal operations and the conditions likely to represent elevated dioxin emissions?

  19. 34 CFR 300.519 - Surrogate parents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... shelters, transitional shelters, independent living programs, and street outreach programs may be appointed as temporary surrogate parents without regard to paragraph (d)(2)(i) of this section, until...

  20. Identifying and cultivating superforecasters as a method of improving probabilistic predictions.

    PubMed

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Murray, Terry; Minster, Angela; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Bishop, Michael; Chen, Eva; Baker, Joshua; Hou, Yuan; Horowitz, Michael; Ungar, Lyle; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-05-01

    Across a wide range of tasks, research has shown that people make poor probabilistic predictions of future events. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Community sponsored a series of forecasting tournaments designed to explore the best strategies for generating accurate subjective probability estimates of geopolitical events. In this article, we describe the winning strategy: culling off top performers each year and assigning them into elite teams of superforecasters. Defying expectations of regression toward the mean 2 years in a row, superforecasters maintained high accuracy across hundreds of questions and a wide array of topics. We find support for four mutually reinforcing explanations of superforecaster performance: (a) cognitive abilities and styles, (b) task-specific skills, (c) motivation and commitment, and (d) enriched environments. These findings suggest that superforecasters are partly discovered and partly created-and that the high-performance incentives of tournaments highlight aspects of human judgment that would not come to light in laboratory paradigms focused on typical performance.

  1. Health information seeking on behalf of others: Characteristics of ‘surrogate seekers’

    PubMed Central

    Cutrona, Sarah L.; Mazor, Kathleen M.; Vieux, Sana N.; Luger, Tana M.; Volkman, Julie E.; Finney Rutten, Lila J.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the behaviors of surrogate-seekers (those who seek health information for others) may guide efforts to improve health information transmission. We used 2011–2012 data from the Health Information National Trends Survey to describe behaviors of online surrogate-seekers. Respondents were asked about use of the Internet for surrogate-seeking over the prior 12 months. Data were weighted to calculate population estimates. Two-thirds (66.6%) reported surrogate-seeking. Compared to those who sought health information online for only themselves, surrogate-seekers were more likely to live in households with others (weighted percent 89.4% vs. 82.5% of self-seekers; p < 0.05); no significant differences in sex, race, income or education were observed. Surrogate-seekers were more likely to report activities requiring user-generated content: email communication with healthcare providers; visits to social networking sites to read and share about medical topics and participation in online health support groups. On multivariate analysis, those who had looked online for healthcare providers were more likely to be surrogate-seekers (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08–2.59). In addition to seeking health information, surrogate-seekers create and pass along communications that may influence medical care decisions. Research is needed to identify ways to facilitate transmission of accurate health information. PMID:24989816

  2. Gene expression signature-based chemical genomic prediction identifies a novel class of HSP90 pathway modulators.

    PubMed

    Hieronymus, Haley; Lamb, Justin; Ross, Kenneth N; Peng, Xiao P; Clement, Cristina; Rodina, Anna; Nieto, Maria; Du, Jinyan; Stegmaier, Kimberly; Raj, Srilakshmi M; Maloney, Katherine N; Clardy, Jon; Hahn, William C; Chiosis, Gabriela; Golub, Todd R

    2006-10-01

    Although androgen receptor (AR)-mediated signaling is central to prostate cancer, the ability to modulate AR signaling states is limited. Here we establish a chemical genomic approach for discovery and target prediction of modulators of cancer phenotypes, as exemplified by AR signaling. We first identify AR activation inhibitors, including a group of structurally related compounds comprising celastrol, gedunin, and derivatives. To develop an in silico approach for target pathway identification, we apply a gene expression-based analysis that classifies HSP90 inhibitors as having similar activity to celastrol and gedunin. Validating this prediction, we demonstrate that celastrol and gedunin inhibit HSP90 activity and HSP90 clients, including AR. Broadly, this work identifies new modes of HSP90 modulation through a gene expression-based strategy. PMID:17010675

  3. Evaluation of bone surrogates for indirect and direct ballistic fractures.

    PubMed

    Bir, Cynthia; Andrecovich, Chris; DeMaio, Marlene; Dougherty, Paul J

    2016-04-01

    The mechanism of injury for fractures to long bones has been studied for both direct ballistic loading as well as indirect. However, the majority of these studies have been conducted on both post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) and animal surrogates which have constraints in terms of storage, preparation and testing. The identification of a validated bone surrogate for use in forensic, medical and engineering testing would provide the ability to investigate ballistic loading without these constraints. Two specific bone surrogates, Sawbones and Synbone, were evaluated in comparison to PMHS for both direct and indirect ballistic loading. For the direct loading, the mean velocity to produce fracture was 121 ± 19 m/s for the PMHS, which was statistically different from the Sawbones (140 ± 7 m/s) and Synbone (146 ± 3 m/s). The average distance to fracture in the indirect loading was .70 cm for the PMHS. The Synbone had a statistically similar average distance to fracture (.61 cm, p=0.54) however the Sawbones average distance to fracture was statistically different (.41 cm, p<0.05). Fractures patterns were found to be comparable to the PMHS for tests conducted with Synbones, however the input parameters were slightly varied to produce similar results. The fractures patterns with the Sawbones were not found to be as comparable to the PMHS. An ideal bone surrogate for ballistic testing was not identified and future work is warranted. PMID:26867672

  4. The interactive surrogate travel system.

    PubMed

    Nakajima, I; Ichimura, A; Juzoji, H; Mugita, K

    1999-01-01

    The Interactive Surrogate Travel (IST) system is based on the super-miniaturized system of virtual technology, Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE). Using bilateral virtual reality (VR-to-VR) communications, IST enables the testing of subjects via interactive communications. It appears that IST will find practical applications in the near future. We examined the utility of IST in medical treatment and psychiatric tests. Psychiatric symptoms reflect human pathos, which in turn are greatly influenced by culture. If these culture-bound symptoms can be adequately communicated between providers and clients of different cultures, we can develop effective telepsychiatric services across different societies and cultures. IST requires high-speed transmission and gigabyte circuits. A pilot project tested the utility of IST (through the use of optical fiber communications on earth) as a basis for experiments via the Gigabit satellite, to be launched in the year 2002.

  5. Surrogate Guderley Test Problem Definition

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsey, Scott D.; Shashkov, Mikhail J.

    2012-07-06

    The surrogate Guderley problem (SGP) is a 'spherical shock tube' (or 'spherical driven implosion') designed to ease the notoriously subtle initialization of the true Guderley problem, while still maintaining a high degree of fidelity. In this problem (similar to the Guderley problem), an infinitely strong shock wave forms and converges in one-dimensional (1D) cylindrical or spherical symmetry through a polytropic gas with arbitrary adiabatic index {gamma}, uniform density {rho}{sub 0}, zero velocity, and negligible pre-shock pressure and specific internal energy (SIE). This shock proceeds to focus on the point or axis of symmetry at r = 0 (resulting in ostensibly infinite pressure, velocity, etc.) and reflect back out into the incoming perturbed gas.

  6. Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K.

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  7. Predictive Modelling to Identify Near-Shore, Fine-Scale Seabird Distributions during the Breeding Season.

    PubMed

    Warwick-Evans, Victoria C; Atkinson, Philip W; Robinson, Leonie A; Green, Jonathan A

    2016-01-01

    During the breeding season seabirds are constrained to coastal areas and are restricted in their movements, spending much of their time in near-shore waters either loafing or foraging. However, in using these areas they may be threatened by anthropogenic activities such as fishing, watersports and coastal developments including marine renewable energy installations. Although many studies describe large scale interactions between seabirds and the environment, the drivers behind near-shore, fine-scale distributions are not well understood. For example, Alderney is an important breeding ground for many species of seabird and has a diversity of human uses of the marine environment, thus providing an ideal location to investigate the near-shore fine-scale interactions between seabirds and the environment. We used vantage point observations of seabird distribution, collected during the 2013 breeding season in order to identify and quantify some of the environmental variables affecting the near-shore, fine-scale distribution of seabirds in Alderney's coastal waters. We validate the models with observation data collected in 2014 and show that water depth, distance to the intertidal zone, and distance to the nearest seabird nest are key predictors in the distribution of Alderney's seabirds. AUC values for each species suggest that these models perform well, although the model for shags performed better than those for auks and gulls. While further unexplained underlying localised variation in the environmental conditions will undoubtedly effect the fine-scale distribution of seabirds in near-shore waters we demonstrate the potential of this approach in marine planning and decision making.

  8. Predictive Modelling to Identify Near-Shore, Fine-Scale Seabird Distributions during the Breeding Season.

    PubMed

    Warwick-Evans, Victoria C; Atkinson, Philip W; Robinson, Leonie A; Green, Jonathan A

    2016-01-01

    During the breeding season seabirds are constrained to coastal areas and are restricted in their movements, spending much of their time in near-shore waters either loafing or foraging. However, in using these areas they may be threatened by anthropogenic activities such as fishing, watersports and coastal developments including marine renewable energy installations. Although many studies describe large scale interactions between seabirds and the environment, the drivers behind near-shore, fine-scale distributions are not well understood. For example, Alderney is an important breeding ground for many species of seabird and has a diversity of human uses of the marine environment, thus providing an ideal location to investigate the near-shore fine-scale interactions between seabirds and the environment. We used vantage point observations of seabird distribution, collected during the 2013 breeding season in order to identify and quantify some of the environmental variables affecting the near-shore, fine-scale distribution of seabirds in Alderney's coastal waters. We validate the models with observation data collected in 2014 and show that water depth, distance to the intertidal zone, and distance to the nearest seabird nest are key predictors in the distribution of Alderney's seabirds. AUC values for each species suggest that these models perform well, although the model for shags performed better than those for auks and gulls. While further unexplained underlying localised variation in the environmental conditions will undoubtedly effect the fine-scale distribution of seabirds in near-shore waters we demonstrate the potential of this approach in marine planning and decision making. PMID:27031616

  9. Predictive Modelling to Identify Near-Shore, Fine-Scale Seabird Distributions during the Breeding Season

    PubMed Central

    Warwick-Evans, Victoria C.; Atkinson, Philip W.; Robinson, Leonie A.; Green, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    During the breeding season seabirds are constrained to coastal areas and are restricted in their movements, spending much of their time in near-shore waters either loafing or foraging. However, in using these areas they may be threatened by anthropogenic activities such as fishing, watersports and coastal developments including marine renewable energy installations. Although many studies describe large scale interactions between seabirds and the environment, the drivers behind near-shore, fine-scale distributions are not well understood. For example, Alderney is an important breeding ground for many species of seabird and has a diversity of human uses of the marine environment, thus providing an ideal location to investigate the near-shore fine-scale interactions between seabirds and the environment. We used vantage point observations of seabird distribution, collected during the 2013 breeding season in order to identify and quantify some of the environmental variables affecting the near-shore, fine-scale distribution of seabirds in Alderney’s coastal waters. We validate the models with observation data collected in 2014 and show that water depth, distance to the intertidal zone, and distance to the nearest seabird nest are key predictors in the distribution of Alderney’s seabirds. AUC values for each species suggest that these models perform well, although the model for shags performed better than those for auks and gulls. While further unexplained underlying localised variation in the environmental conditions will undoubtedly effect the fine-scale distribution of seabirds in near-shore waters we demonstrate the potential of this approach in marine planning and decision making. PMID:27031616

  10. Predicting fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints: a spatially-explicit bioenergetics approach.

    PubMed

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  11. On Using Surrogates with Genetic Programming.

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, Torsten; Branke, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    One way to accelerate evolutionary algorithms with expensive fitness evaluations is to combine them with surrogate models. Surrogate models are efficiently computable approximations of the fitness function, derived by means of statistical or machine learning techniques from samples of fully evaluated solutions. But these models usually require a numerical representation, and therefore cannot be used with the tree representation of genetic programming (GP). In this paper, we present a new way to use surrogate models with GP. Rather than using the genotype directly as input to the surrogate model, we propose using a phenotypic characterization. This phenotypic characterization can be computed efficiently and allows us to define approximate measures of equivalence and similarity. Using a stochastic, dynamic job shop scenario as an example of simulation-based GP with an expensive fitness evaluation, we show how these ideas can be used to construct surrogate models and improve the convergence speed and solution quality of GP.

  12. Development of surrogates for aviation jet fuels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasseri, Seyed Ali

    Surrogate fuels are mixtures of pure hydrocarbons that mimic specific properties of a real fuel. The use of a small number of pure compounds in their formulation ensures that chemical composition is well controlled, helping increase reproducibility of experiments and reduce the computational cost associated with numerical modeling. In this work, surrogate mixtures were developed for Jet A fuel based on correlations between fuel properties (cetane number, smoke point, threshold sooting index (TSI), density, viscosity, boiling point and freezing point) and the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra of the fuel as a measure of the fuel's chemical composition. Comparison of the chemical composition and target fuel properties of the surrogate fuels developed in this work to a Jet A fuel sample and other surrogate fuels proposed in the literature revealed the superiority of these surrogate fuels in mimicking the fuel properties of interest.

  13. On Using Surrogates with Genetic Programming.

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, Torsten; Branke, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    One way to accelerate evolutionary algorithms with expensive fitness evaluations is to combine them with surrogate models. Surrogate models are efficiently computable approximations of the fitness function, derived by means of statistical or machine learning techniques from samples of fully evaluated solutions. But these models usually require a numerical representation, and therefore cannot be used with the tree representation of genetic programming (GP). In this paper, we present a new way to use surrogate models with GP. Rather than using the genotype directly as input to the surrogate model, we propose using a phenotypic characterization. This phenotypic characterization can be computed efficiently and allows us to define approximate measures of equivalence and similarity. Using a stochastic, dynamic job shop scenario as an example of simulation-based GP with an expensive fitness evaluation, we show how these ideas can be used to construct surrogate models and improve the convergence speed and solution quality of GP. PMID:24967694

  14. Realtime Prediction in Disturbed Landscapes: Identifying Highest Priority Disturbance Characteristics Impacting Streamflow Response in a CONUS-Scale Operational Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dugger, A. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Barlage, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    The "next generation" of hydrologic prediction systems - targeting unified, process-based, real-time prediction of the total water cycle - bring with them an increased need for real-time land surface characterization. Climatologically-derived estimates may perform well under stationary conditions, however disturbance can significantly alter hydrologic behavior and may be poorly represented by mean historical conditions. Fortunately, remote sensing and on-the-ground observation networks are collecting snapshots of these land characteristics over an increasing fraction of the globe. Given the computing constraints of operating a large-domain, real-time prediction system, to take advantage of these data streams we need a way to prioritize which landscape characteristics are most important to hydrologic prediction post-disturbance. To address this need, we setup a model experiment over the contiguous US using the community WRF-Hydro system with the NoahMP land surface model to assess the value of incorporating various aspects of disturbed landscapes into a real-time streamflow prediction model. WRF-Hydro will serve as the initial operational model for the US National Weather Service's new national water prediction effort, so use of WRF-Hydro allows us to leverage both an existing CONUS-scale model implementation and a short research-to-operations path. We first identify USGS GAGES-II basins that experienced more than 25% forest loss between 2000 and 2013. Based on basin disturbance type, geophysical setting, and climate regime, we formulate a conceptual model of which "disturbed" landscape characteristics we expect to dominate streamflow response. We test our conceptual model using WRF-Hydro by modeling a baseline (no disturbance) case, and then bringing in empirically-derived model state shifts representing key disturbance characteristics (e.g., leaf area index, rooting depth, overland roughness, surface detention). For each state update and each basin, we quantify

  15. Realtime Prediction in Disturbed Landscapes: Identifying Highest Priority Disturbance Characteristics Impacting Streamflow Response in a CONUS-Scale Operational Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dugger, A. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Barlage, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    The "next generation" of hydrologic prediction systems - targeting unified, process-based, real-time prediction of the total water cycle - bring with them an increased need for real-time land surface characterization. Climatologically-derived estimates may perform well under stationary conditions, however disturbance can significantly alter hydrologic behavior and may be poorly represented by mean historical conditions. Fortunately, remote sensing and on-the-ground observation networks are collecting snapshots of these land characteristics over an increasing fraction of the globe. Given the computing constraints of operating a large-domain, real-time prediction system, to take advantage of these data streams we need a way to prioritize which landscape characteristics are most important to hydrologic prediction post-disturbance. To address this need, we setup a model experiment over the contiguous US using the community WRF-Hydro system with the NoahMP land surface model to assess the value of incorporating various aspects of disturbed landscapes into a real-time streamflow prediction model. WRF-Hydro will serve as the initial operational model for the US National Weather Service's new national water prediction effort, so use of WRF-Hydro allows us to leverage both an existing CONUS-scale model implementation and a short research-to-operations path. We first identify USGS GAGES-II basins that experienced more than 25% forest loss between 2000 and 2013. Based on basin disturbance type, geophysical setting, and climate regime, we formulate a conceptual model of which "disturbed" landscape characteristics we expect to dominate streamflow response. We test our conceptual model using WRF-Hydro by modeling a baseline (no disturbance) case, and then bringing in empirically-derived model state shifts representing key disturbance characteristics (e.g., leaf area index, rooting depth, overland roughness, surface detention). For each state update and each basin, we quantify

  16. Identifying Thoracic Malignancies Through Pleural Fluid Biomarkers: A Predictive Multivariate Model.

    PubMed

    Porcel, José M; Esquerda, Aureli; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Bielsa, Silvia; Salud, Antonieta

    2016-03-01

    The diagnosis of malignant pleural effusions may be challenging when cytological examination of aspirated pleural fluid is equivocal or noncontributory. The purpose of this study was to identify protein candidate biomarkers differentially expressed in the pleural fluid of patients with mesothelioma, lung adenocarcinoma, lymphoma, and tuberculosis (TB).A multiplex protein biochip comprising 120 biomarkers was used to determine the pleural fluid protein profile of 29 mesotheliomas, 29 lung adenocarcinomas, 12 lymphomas, and 35 tuberculosis. The relative abundance of these predetermined biomarkers among groups served to establish the differential diagnosis of: malignant versus benign (TB) effusions, lung adenocarcinoma versus mesothelioma, and lymphoma versus TB. The selected putative markers were validated using widely available commercial techniques in an independent sample of 102 patients.Significant differences were found in the protein expressions of metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), cathepsin-B, C-reactive protein, and chondroitin sulfate between malignant and TB effusions. When integrated into a scoring model, these proteins yielded 85% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.98 for labeling malignancy in the verification sample. For lung adenocarcinoma-mesothelioma discrimination, combining CA19-9, CA15-3, and kallikrein-12 had maximal discriminatory capacity (65% sensitivity, 100% specificity, AUC 0.94); figures which also refer to the validation set. Last, cathepsin-B in isolation was only moderately useful (sensitivity 89%, specificity 62%, AUC 0.75) in separating lymphomatous and TB effusions. However, this last differentiation improved significantly when cathepsin-B was used with respect to the patient's age (sensitivity 72%, specificity 100%, AUC 0.94).In conclusion, panels of 4 (i.e., MMP-9, cathepsin-B, C-reactive protein, chondroitin sulfate), or 3 (i.e., CA19-9, CA15-3, kallikrein-12) different protein biomarkers on pleural

  17. Predicting microRNA modulation in human prostate cancer using a simple String IDentifier (SID1.0).

    PubMed

    Albertini, Maria C; Olivieri, Fabiola; Lazzarini, Raffaella; Pilolli, Francesca; Galli, Francesco; Spada, Giorgio; Accorsi, Augusto; Rippo, Maria R; Procopio, Antonio D

    2011-08-01

    To make faster and efficient the identification of mRNA targets common to more than one miRNA, and to identify new miRNAs modulated in specific pathways, a computer program identified as SID1.0 (simple String IDentifier) was developed and successfully applied in the identification of deregulated miRNAs in prostate cancer cells. This computationally inexpensive Fortran program is based on the strategy of exhaustive search and specifically designed to screen shared data (target genes, miRNAs and pathways) available from PicTar and DIANA-MicroT 3.0 databases. As far as we know this is the first software designed to filter data retrieved from available miRNA databases. SID1.0 takes advantage of the standard Fortran intrinsic functions for manipulating text strings and requires ASCII input files. In order to demonstrate SID1.0 applicability, some miRNAs expected from the literature to associate with cancerogenesis (miR-125b, miR-148a and miR-141), were randomly identified as main entries for SID1.0 to explore matching sequences of mRNA targets and also to explore KEGG pathways for the presence of ID codes of targeted genes. Besides genes and pathways already described in the literature, SID1.0 has proven to useful for predicting other genes involved in prostate carcinoma. These latter were used to identify new deregulated miRNAs: miR-141, miR-148a, miR-19a and miR-19b. Prediction data were preliminary confirmed by expression analysis of the identified miRNAs in androgen-dependent (LNCaP) and independent (PC3) prostate carcinoma cell lines and in normal prostatic epithelial cells (PrEC). PMID:21334455

  18. Prediction of DNA binding motifs from 3D models of transcription factors; identifying TLX3 regulated genes

    PubMed Central

    Pujato, Mario; Kieken, Fabien; Skiles, Amanda A.; Tapinos, Nikos; Fiser, Andras

    2014-01-01

    Proper cell functioning depends on the precise spatio-temporal expression of its genetic material. Gene expression is controlled to a great extent by sequence-specific transcription factors (TFs). Our current knowledge on where and how TFs bind and associate to regulate gene expression is incomplete. A structure-based computational algorithm (TF2DNA) is developed to identify binding specificities of TFs. The method constructs homology models of TFs bound to DNA and assesses the relative binding affinity for all possible DNA sequences using a knowledge-based potential, after optimization in a molecular mechanics force field. TF2DNA predictions were benchmarked against experimentally determined binding motifs. Success rates range from 45% to 81% and primarily depend on the sequence identity of aligned target sequences and template structures, TF2DNA was used to predict 1321 motifs for 1825 putative human TF proteins, facilitating the reconstruction of most of the human gene regulatory network. As an illustration, the predicted DNA binding site for the poorly characterized T-cell leukemia homeobox 3 (TLX3) TF was confirmed with gel shift assay experiments. TLX3 motif searches in human promoter regions identified a group of genes enriched in functions relating to hematopoiesis, tissue morphology, endocrine system and connective tissue development and function. PMID:25428367

  19. Proteomics of Genetically Engineered Mouse Mammary Tumors Identifies Fatty Acid Metabolism Members as Potential Predictive Markers for Cisplatin Resistance*

    PubMed Central

    Warmoes, Marc; Jaspers, Janneke E.; Xu, Guotai; Sampadi, Bharath K.; Pham, Thang V.; Knol, Jaco C.; Piersma, Sander R.; Boven, Epie; Jonkers, Jos; Rottenberg, Sven; Jimenez, Connie R.

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to various signatures that predict the prognosis of breast cancer patients, markers that predict chemotherapy response are still elusive. To detect such predictive biomarkers, we investigated early changes in protein expression using two mouse models for distinct breast cancer subtypes who have a differential knock-out status for the breast cancer 1, early onset (Brca1) gene. The proteome of cisplatin-sensitive BRCA1-deficient mammary tumors was compared with that of cisplatin-resistant mammary tumors resembling pleomorphic invasive lobular carcinoma. The analyses were performed 24 h after administration of the maximum tolerable dose of cisplatin. At this time point, drug-sensitive BRCA1-deficient tumors showed DNA damage, but cells were largely viable. By applying paired statistics and quantitative filtering, we identified highly discriminatory markers for the sensitive and resistant model. Proteins up-regulated in the sensitive model are involved in centrosome organization, chromosome condensation, homology-directed DNA repair, and nucleotide metabolism. Major discriminatory markers that were up-regulated in the resistant model were predominantly involved in fatty acid metabolism, such as fatty-acid synthase. Specific inhibition of fatty-acid synthase sensitized resistant cells to cisplatin. Our data suggest that exploring the functional link between the DNA damage response and cancer metabolism shortly after the initial treatment may be a useful strategy to predict the efficacy of cisplatin. PMID:23397111

  20. Many amino acid substitution variants identified in DNA repair genes during human population screenings are predicted to impact protein function

    SciTech Connect

    Xi, T; Jones, I M; Mohrenweiser, H W

    2003-11-03

    Over 520 different amino acid substitution variants have been previously identified in the systematic screening of 91 human DNA repair genes for sequence variation. Two algorithms were employed to predict the impact of these amino acid substitutions on protein activity. Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant (SIFT) classified 226 of 508 variants (44%) as ''Intolerant''. Polymorphism Phenotyping (PolyPhen) classed 165 of 489 amino acid substitutions (34%) as ''Probably or Possibly Damaging''. Another 9-15% of the variants were classed as ''Potentially Intolerant or Damaging''. The results from the two algorithms are highly associated, with concordance in predicted impact observed for {approx}62% of the variants. Twenty one to thirty one percent of the variant proteins are predicted to exhibit reduced activity by both algorithms. These variants occur at slightly lower individual allele frequency than do the variants classified as ''Tolerant'' or ''Benign''. Both algorithms correctly predicted the impact of 26 functionally characterized amino acid substitutions in the APE1 protein on biochemical activity, with one exception. It is concluded that a substantial fraction of the missense variants observed in the general human population are functionally relevant. These variants are expected to be the molecular genetic and biochemical basis for the associations of reduced DNA repair capacity phenotypes with elevated cancer risk.

  1. A Network-Based Model of Oncogenic Collaboration for Prediction of Drug Sensitivity

    PubMed Central

    Laderas, Ted G.; Heiser, Laura M.; Sönmez, Kemal

    2015-01-01

    Tumorigenesis is a multi-step process, involving the acquisition of multiple oncogenic mutations that transform cells, resulting in systemic dysregulation that enables proliferation, invasion, and other cancer hallmarks. The goal of precision medicine is to identify therapeutically-actionable mutations from large-scale omic datasets. However, the multiplicity of oncogenes required for transformation, known as oncogenic collaboration, makes assigning effective treatments difficult. Motivated by this observation, we propose a new type of oncogenic collaboration where mutations in genes that interact with an oncogene may contribute to the oncogene’s deleterious potential, a new genomic feature that we term “surrogate oncogenes.” Surrogate oncogenes are representatives of these mutated subnetworks that interact with oncogenes. By mapping mutations to a protein–protein interaction network, we determine the significance of the observed distribution using permutation-based methods. For a panel of 38 breast cancer cell lines, we identified a significant number of surrogate oncogenes in known oncogenes such as BRCA1 and ESR1, lending credence to this approach. In addition, using Random Forest Classifiers, we show that these significant surrogate oncogenes predict drug sensitivity for 74 drugs in the breast cancer cell lines with a mean error rate of 30.9%. Additionally, we show that surrogate oncogenes are predictive of survival in patients. The surrogate oncogene framework incorporates unique or rare mutations from a single sample, and therefore has the potential to integrate patient-unique mutations into drug sensitivity predictions, suggesting a new direction in precision medicine and drug development. Additionally, we show the prevalence of significant surrogate oncogenes in multiple cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas, suggesting that surrogate oncogenes may be a useful genomic feature for guiding pancancer analyses and assigning therapies across many tissue

  2. Long-term characterization of residential runoff and assessing potential surrogates of fecal indicator organisms.

    PubMed

    Reano, Dane C; Haver, Darren L; Oki, Lorence R; Yates, Marylynn V

    2015-05-01

    Investigations into the microbiological impacts of urban runoff on receiving water bodies, especially during storm conditions, have yielded general paradigms that influence runoff abatement and control management strategies. To determine whether these trends are present in other runoff sources, the physical, chemical, and microbiological components of residential runoff from eight neighborhoods in Northern and Southern California were characterized over the course of five years. Sampling occurred regularly and during storm events, resulting in 833 data sets. Analysis of runoff data assisted in characterizing residential runoff, elucidating differences between dry and storm conditions, and identifying surrogates capable of assessing microbiological quality. Results indicate that although microbial loading increases during storm events similar to urban runoff, annual microbial loading in these study sites principally occurs during dry conditions (24% storm, 76% dry). Generated artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models assessed surrogate performance by accurately predicting Escherichia coli concentrations from validation data sets (R(2) = 0.74 and 0.77, respectively), but required input from other fecal indicator organism (FIO) variables to maintain performance (R(2) = 0.27 and 0.18, respectively, without FIO). This long-term analysis of residential runoff highlights characteristics distinct from urban runoff and establishes necessary variables for determining microbiological quality, thus better informing future management strategies.

  3. Utility of percentage of births to teenagers as a surrogate for the teen birth rate.

    PubMed Central

    Gould, J; Blackwell, T; Heilig, C; Axley, M

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The teen birth rate is commonly used in comparing regional variation in teen pregnancies, but local teen birth rates are not always available. In this study the percentage of all births that are to teens was evaluated for its utility as a surrogate for the teen birth rate. METHODS: Rank correlation and sensitivity and specificity analyses were used. RESULTS: The Spearman rank correlations between percentage of teen births (PTB) and teen birth rate (TBR) were .995, .906, and .841 for the 3 age groups suggesting that it may be reasonable to employ PTB to prioritize zip codes. Zip codes with upper quartile levels of percentages of teen births identified zip codes with upper quartile levels of TBR with a sensitivity of 83.8%, 68.8%, and 65%; a false-positive rate of 2.1%, 8.6%, and 10%; and a positive predictive value of 89.3%, 67.6%, and 67.5% for the age groups 10 through 14, 15 through 17, and 18 through 19 years. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of births to teens is a useful surrogate for teen birth rate in California, especially among younger teenagers. PMID:9618618

  4. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  5. SVM-based prediction of propeptide cleavage sites in spider toxins identifies toxin innovation in an Australian tarantula.

    PubMed

    Wong, Emily S W; Hardy, Margaret C; Wood, David; Bailey, Timothy; King, Glenn F

    2013-01-01

    Spider neurotoxins are commonly used as pharmacological tools and are a popular source of novel compounds with therapeutic and agrochemical potential. Since venom peptides are inherently toxic, the host spider must employ strategies to avoid adverse effects prior to venom use. It is partly for this reason that most spider toxins encode a protective proregion that upon enzymatic cleavage is excised from the mature peptide. In order to identify the mature toxin sequence directly from toxin transcripts, without resorting to protein sequencing, the propeptide cleavage site in the toxin precursor must be predicted bioinformatically. We evaluated different machine learning strategies (support vector machines, hidden Markov model and decision tree) and developed an algorithm (SpiderP) for prediction of propeptide cleavage sites in spider toxins. Our strategy uses a support vector machine (SVM) framework that combines both local and global sequence information. Our method is superior or comparable to current tools for prediction of propeptide sequences in spider toxins. Evaluation of the SVM method on an independent test set of known toxin sequences yielded 96% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Furthermore, we sequenced five novel peptides (not used to train the final predictor) from the venom of the Australian tarantula Selenotypus plumipes to test the accuracy of the predictor and found 80% sensitivity and 99.6% 8-mer specificity. Finally, we used the predictor together with homology information to predict and characterize seven groups of novel toxins from the deeply sequenced venom gland transcriptome of S. plumipes, which revealed structural complexity and innovations in the evolution of the toxins. The precursor prediction tool (SpiderP) is freely available on ArachnoServer (http://www.arachnoserver.org/spiderP.html), a web portal to a comprehensive relational database of spider toxins. All training data, test data, and scripts used are available from the Spider

  6. SVM-based prediction of propeptide cleavage sites in spider toxins identifies toxin innovation in an Australian tarantula.

    PubMed

    Wong, Emily S W; Hardy, Margaret C; Wood, David; Bailey, Timothy; King, Glenn F

    2013-01-01

    Spider neurotoxins are commonly used as pharmacological tools and are a popular source of novel compounds with therapeutic and agrochemical potential. Since venom peptides are inherently toxic, the host spider must employ strategies to avoid adverse effects prior to venom use. It is partly for this reason that most spider toxins encode a protective proregion that upon enzymatic cleavage is excised from the mature peptide. In order to identify the mature toxin sequence directly from toxin transcripts, without resorting to protein sequencing, the propeptide cleavage site in the toxin precursor must be predicted bioinformatically. We evaluated different machine learning strategies (support vector machines, hidden Markov model and decision tree) and developed an algorithm (SpiderP) for prediction of propeptide cleavage sites in spider toxins. Our strategy uses a support vector machine (SVM) framework that combines both local and global sequence information. Our method is superior or comparable to current tools for prediction of propeptide sequences in spider toxins. Evaluation of the SVM method on an independent test set of known toxin sequences yielded 96% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Furthermore, we sequenced five novel peptides (not used to train the final predictor) from the venom of the Australian tarantula Selenotypus plumipes to test the accuracy of the predictor and found 80% sensitivity and 99.6% 8-mer specificity. Finally, we used the predictor together with homology information to predict and characterize seven groups of novel toxins from the deeply sequenced venom gland transcriptome of S. plumipes, which revealed structural complexity and innovations in the evolution of the toxins. The precursor prediction tool (SpiderP) is freely available on ArachnoServer (http://www.arachnoserver.org/spiderP.html), a web portal to a comprehensive relational database of spider toxins. All training data, test data, and scripts used are available from the Spider

  7. Benchmarking a surrogate reaction for neutron capture

    SciTech Connect

    Hatarik, R.; Cizewski, J. A.; Hatarik, A. M.; O'Malley, P. D.; Bernstein, L. A.; Bleuel, D. L.; Burke, J. T.; Escher, J. E.; Lesher, S. R.; Gibelin, J.; Phair, L.; Rodriguez-Vieitez, E.; Goldblum, B. L.; Swan, T.; Wiedeking, M.

    2010-01-15

    {sup 171,173}Yb(d,p{gamma}) reactions are measured, with the goal of extracting the neutron capture cross-section ratio as a function of the neutron energy using the external surrogate ratio method. The cross-section ratios obtained are compared to the known neutron capture cross sections. Although the Weisskopf-Ewing limit is demonstrated not to apply for these low neutron energies, a prescription for deducing surrogate cross sections is presented. The surrogate cross-section ratios deduced from the {sup 171,173}Yb(d,p{gamma}) measurements agree with the neutron capture results within 15%.

  8. A general framework to learn surrogate relevance criterion for atlas based image segmentation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

    2016-09-01

    Multi-atlas based image segmentation sees great opportunities in the big data era but also faces unprecedented challenges in identifying positive contributors from extensive heterogeneous data. To assess data relevance, image similarity criteria based on various image features widely serve as surrogates for the inaccessible geometric agreement criteria. This paper proposes a general framework to learn image based surrogate relevance criteria to better mimic the behaviors of segmentation based oracle geometric relevance. The validity of its general rationale is verified in the specific context of fusion set selection for image segmentation. More specifically, we first present a unified formulation for surrogate relevance criteria and model the neighborhood relationship among atlases based on the oracle relevance knowledge. Surrogates are then trained to be small for geometrically relevant neighbors and large for irrelevant remotes to the given targets. The proposed surrogate learning framework is verified in corpus callosum segmentation. The learned surrogates demonstrate superiority in inferring the underlying oracle value and selecting relevant fusion set, compared to benchmark surrogates. PMID:27524268

  9. A general framework to learn surrogate relevance criterion for atlas based image segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

    2016-09-01

    Multi-atlas based image segmentation sees great opportunities in the big data era but also faces unprecedented challenges in identifying positive contributors from extensive heterogeneous data. To assess data relevance, image similarity criteria based on various image features widely serve as surrogates for the inaccessible geometric agreement criteria. This paper proposes a general framework to learn image based surrogate relevance criteria to better mimic the behaviors of segmentation based oracle geometric relevance. The validity of its general rationale is verified in the specific context of fusion set selection for image segmentation. More specifically, we first present a unified formulation for surrogate relevance criteria and model the neighborhood relationship among atlases based on the oracle relevance knowledge. Surrogates are then trained to be small for geometrically relevant neighbors and large for irrelevant remotes to the given targets. The proposed surrogate learning framework is verified in corpus callosum segmentation. The learned surrogates demonstrate superiority in inferring the underlying oracle value and selecting relevant fusion set, compared to benchmark surrogates.

  10. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  11. Heat–Health Warning Systems: A Comparison of the Predictive Capacity of Different Approaches to Identifying Dangerously Hot Days

    PubMed Central

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.; Pascal, Mathilde; Laaidi, Karine; Yagouti, Abderrahmane; Bickis, Ugis; Tobias, Aurelio; Bourque, Denis; Armstrong, Ben G.; Kosatsky, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We compared the ability of several heat–health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. Methods. Heat–health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature–mortality relationship, (3) temperature–humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. Results. We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature–mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. Conclusions. Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat–health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers. PMID:20395585

  12. Molecular docking to identify associations between drugs and class I human leukocyte antigens for predicting idiosyncratic drug reactions

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Heng; Du, Tingting; Zhou, Peng; Yang, Lun; Mei, Hu; Ng, Huiwen; Zhang, Wenqian; Shu, Mao; Tong, Weida; Shi, Leming; Mendrick, Donna L.; Hong, Huixiao

    2015-01-01

    Idiosyncratic drug reactions (IDRs) are rare, somewhat dose-independent, patient-specific and hard to predict. Human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) are the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in humans, are highly polymorphic and are associated with specific IDRs. Therefore, it is important to identify potential drug-HLA associations so that individuals who would develop IDRs can be identified before drug exposure. We harvested the associations between drugs and class I HLAs from the literature. Molecular docking was used to explore the known associations. From the analysis of docking scores between the 17 drugs and 74 class I HLAs, it was observed that the significantly associated drug-HLA pairs had statistically lower docking scores than those not reported to be significantly associated (t-test p < 0.05). This indicates that molecular docking can be utilized for screening drug-HLA interactions and predicting potential IDRs. Examining the binding modes of drugs in the docked HLAs suggested several distinct binding sites inside class I HLAs, expanding our knowledge of the underlying interaction mechanisms between drugs and HLAs. PMID:25747444

  13. PreProPath: An Uncertainty-Aware Algorithm for Identifying Predictable Profitable Pathways in Biochemical Networks.

    PubMed

    Ullah, Ehsan; Walker, Mark; Lee, Kyongbum; Hassoun, Soha

    2015-01-01

    Pathway analysis is a powerful approach to enable rational design or redesign of biochemical networks for optimizing metabolic engineering and synthetic biology objectives such as production of desired chemicals or biomolecules from specific nutrients. While experimental methods can be quite successful, computational approaches can enhance discovery and guide experimentation by efficiently exploring very large design spaces. We present a computational algorithm, Predictably Profitable Path (PreProPath), to identify target pathways best suited for engineering modifications. The algorithm utilizes uncertainties about the metabolic networks operating state inherent in the underdetermined linear equations representing the stoichiometric model. Flux Variability Analysis is used to determine the operational flux range. PreProPath identifies a path that is predictable in behavior, exhibiting small flux ranges, and profitable, containing the least restrictive flux-limiting reaction in the network. The algorithm is computationally efficient because it does not require enumeration of pathways. The results of case studies show that PreProPath can efficiently analyze variances in metabolic states and model uncertainties to suggest pathway engineering strategies that have been previously supported by experimental data.

  14. Surrogate mothers: whose baby is it?

    PubMed

    Cohen, B

    1984-01-01

    Advances in medical technology offer infertile couples who wish to raise children alternatives to adoption. The increasing number of surrogate mother contracts creates a myriad of legal issues surrounding the rights of the natural mother, the natural father and the child that is produced. In this Article, the Author discusses the legal issues and rights of the parties under the Constitution, the surrogate contract and family law principles. The Author proposes that courts should consider a surrogate contract as a revocable prebirth agreement which allows the natural mother to keep the child if she chooses. In addition, the Author advocates an interpretation of the statutes forbidding baby selling that would prohibit surrogate contracts in which the mother is paid a fee for the child.

  15. Efficient Calibration of Computationally Intensive Groundwater Models through Surrogate Modelling with Lower Levels of Fidelity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razavi, S.; Anderson, D.; Martin, P.; MacMillan, G.; Tolson, B.; Gabriel, C.; Zhang, B.

    2012-12-01

    Many sophisticated groundwater models tend to be computationally intensive as they rigorously represent detailed scientific knowledge about the groundwater systems. Calibration (model inversion), which is a vital step of groundwater model development, can require hundreds or thousands of model evaluations (runs) for different sets of parameters and as such demand prohibitively large computational time and resources. One common strategy to circumvent this computational burden is surrogate modelling which is concerned with developing and utilizing fast-to-run surrogates of the original computationally intensive models (also called fine models). Surrogates can be either based on statistical and data-driven models such as kriging and neural networks or simplified physically-based models with lower fidelity to the original system (also called coarse models). Fidelity in this context refers to the degree of the realism of a simulation model. This research initially investigates different strategies for developing lower-fidelity surrogates of a fine groundwater model and their combinations. These strategies include coarsening the fine model, relaxing the numerical convergence criteria, and simplifying the model geological conceptualisation. Trade-offs between model efficiency and fidelity (accuracy) are of special interest. A methodological framework is developed for coordinating the original fine model with its lower-fidelity surrogates with the objective of efficiently calibrating the parameters of the original model. This framework is capable of mapping the original model parameters to the corresponding surrogate model parameters and also mapping the surrogate model response for the given parameters to the original model response. This framework is general in that it can be used with different optimization and/or uncertainty analysis techniques available for groundwater model calibration and parameter/predictive uncertainty assessment. A real-world computationally

  16. A Western diet ecological module identified from the 'humanized' mouse microbiota predicts diet in adults and formula feeding in children.

    PubMed

    Siddharth, Jay; Holway, Nicholas; Parkinson, Scott J

    2013-01-01

    The interplay between diet and the microbiota has been implicated in the growing frequency of chronic diseases associated with the Western lifestyle. However, the complexity and variability of microbial ecology in humans and preclinical models has hampered identification of the molecular mechanisms underlying the association of the microbiota in this context. We sought to address two key questions. Can the microbial ecology of preclinical models predict human populations? And can we identify underlying principles that surpass the plasticity of microbial ecology in humans? To do this, we focused our study on diet; perhaps the most influential factor determining the composition of the gut microbiota. Beginning with a study in 'humanized' mice we identified an interactive module of 9 genera allied with Western diet intake. This module was applied to a controlled dietary study in humans. The abundance of the Western ecological module correctly predicted the dietary intake of 19/21 top and 21/21 of the bottom quartile samples inclusive of all 5 Western and 'low-fat' diet subjects, respectively. In 98 volunteers the abundance of the Western module correlated appropriately with dietary intake of saturated fatty acids, fat-soluble vitamins and fiber. Furthermore, it correlated with the geographical location and dietary habits of healthy adults from the Western, developing and third world. The module was also coupled to dietary intake in children (and piglets) correlating with formula (vs breast) feeding and associated with a precipitous development of the ecological module in young children. Our study provides a conceptual platform to translate microbial ecology from preclinical models to humans and identifies an ecological network module underlying the association of the gut microbiota with Western dietary habits.

  17. The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

    PubMed Central

    Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  18. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    PubMed

    Davis, Aaron P; Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana; Moat, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations

  19. New approaches with surrogate decision makers.

    PubMed

    Howe, Edmund G

    2014-01-01

    A first principle in ethics consultation is that reasoning is essential. A second principle is that the religious and cultural views of patients and their surrogates are usually respected. What can be done when these principles collide-when patients or surrogates have religious or cultural views and beliefs that clinicians find unreasonable or even offensive? Mediation may provide some approaches to assist us in providing the most ethically appropriate assistance.

  20. Surrogate utility estimation by long-term partners and unfamiliar dyads

    PubMed Central

    Tunney, Richard J.; Ziegler, Fenja V.

    2015-01-01

    To what extent are people able to make predictions about other people's preferences and values?We report two experiments that present a novel method assessing some of the basic processes in surrogate decision-making, namely surrogate-utility estimation. In each experiment participants formed dyads who were asked to assign utilities to health related items and commodity items, and to predict their partner's utility judgments for the same items. In experiment one we showed that older adults in long-term relationships were able to accurately predict their partner's wishes. In experiment two we showed that younger adults who were relatively unfamiliar with one another were also able to predict other people's wishes. Crucially we demonstrated that these judgments were accurate even after partialling out each participant's own preferences indicating that in order to make surrogate utility estimations people engage in perspective-taking rather than simple anchoring and adjustment, suggesting that utility estimation is not the cause of inaccuracy in surrogate decision-making. The data and implications are discussed with respect to theories of surrogate decision-making. PMID:25859227

  1. Progress in Chemical Kinetic Modeling for Surrogate Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K; Herbinet, O; Silke, E J

    2008-06-06

    Gasoline, diesel, and other alternative transportation fuels contain hundreds to thousands of compounds. It is currently not possible to represent all these compounds in detailed chemical kinetic models. Instead, these fuels are represented by surrogate fuel models which contain a limited number of representative compounds. We have been extending the list of compounds for detailed chemical models that are available for use in fuel surrogate models. Detailed models for components with larger and more complicated fuel molecular structures are now available. These advancements are allowing a more accurate representation of practical and alternative fuels. We have developed detailed chemical kinetic models for fuels with higher molecular weight fuel molecules such as n-hexadecane (C16). Also, we can consider more complicated fuel molecular structures like cyclic alkanes and aromatics that are found in practical fuels. For alternative fuels, the capability to model large biodiesel fuels that have ester structures is becoming available. These newly addressed cyclic and ester structures in fuels profoundly affect the reaction rate of the fuel predicted by the model. Finally, these surrogate fuel models contain large numbers of species and reactions and must be reduced for use in multi-dimensional models for spark-ignition, HCCI and diesel engines.

  2. Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Psychosis: Predictive Utility of Support Vector Machine using Structural and Functional MRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Valli, Isabel; Marquand, Andre F.; Mechelli, Andrea; Raffin, Marie; Allen, Paul; Seal, Marc L.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is, therefore, increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analyzed using a standard univariate analysis, and with support vector machine (SVM), a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p < 0.001). Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. By contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p < 0.05 corrected), while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis. PMID:27092086

  3. Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Psychosis: Predictive Utility of Support Vector Machine using Structural and Functional MRI Data.

    PubMed

    Valli, Isabel; Marquand, Andre F; Mechelli, Andrea; Raffin, Marie; Allen, Paul; Seal, Marc L; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is, therefore, increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analyzed using a standard univariate analysis, and with support vector machine (SVM), a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p < 0.001). Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. By contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p < 0.05 corrected), while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis. PMID:27092086

  4. An Algorithm for Generating Structural Surrogates of English Text.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strong, Suzanne Marvin

    An algorithm for generating a structural syntactic surrogate of English text is defined in this paper. The "performance" of the surrogate is judged empirically according to adherence to the following criteria: (1) The surrogate is an organized representation of natural language text; (2) The algorithm which produces the surrogate is equally…

  5. Identifying Gene Regulatory Networks in Arabidopsis by In Silico Prediction, Yeast-1-Hybrid, and Inducible Gene Profiling Assays.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Erin E; Benfey, Philip N

    2016-01-01

    A system-wide understanding of gene regulation will provide deep insights into plant development and physiology. In this chapter we describe a threefold approach to identify the gene regulatory networks in Arabidopsis thaliana that function in a specific tissue or biological process. Since no single method is sufficient to establish comprehensive and high-confidence gene regulatory networks, we focus on the integration of three approaches. First, we describe an in silico prediction method of transcription factor-DNA binding, then an in vivo assay of transcription factor-DNA binding by yeast-1-hybrid and lastly the identification of co-expression clusters by transcription factor induction in planta. Each of these methods provides a unique tool to advance our understanding of gene regulation, and together provide a robust model for the generation of gene regulatory networks.

  6. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as a tool to predict chemical activity on mammalian development and identify mechanisms influencing toxicological outcome.

    PubMed

    Harlow, Philippa H; Perry, Simon J; Widdison, Stephanie; Daniels, Shannon; Bondo, Eddie; Lamberth, Clemens; Currie, Richard A; Flemming, Anthony J

    2016-01-01

    To determine whether a C. elegans bioassay could predict mammalian developmental activity, we selected diverse compounds known and known not to elicit such activity and measured their effect on C. elegans egg viability. 89% of compounds that reduced C. elegans egg viability also had mammalian developmental activity. Conversely only 25% of compounds found not to reduce egg viability in C. elegans were also inactive in mammals. We conclude that the C. elegans egg viability assay is an accurate positive predictor, but an inaccurate negative predictor, of mammalian developmental activity. We then evaluated C. elegans as a tool to identify mechanisms affecting toxicological outcomes among related compounds. The difference in developmental activity of structurally related fungicides in C. elegans correlated with their rate of metabolism. Knockdown of the cytochrome P450s cyp-35A3 and cyp-35A4 increased the toxicity to C. elegans of the least developmentally active compounds to the level of the most developmentally active. This indicated that these P450s were involved in the greater rate of metabolism of the less toxic of these compounds. We conclude that C. elegans based approaches can predict mammalian developmental activity and can yield plausible hypotheses for factors affecting the biological potency of compounds in mammals.

  7. Identifying predictive factors for posttransplant lymphoproliferative disease in pediatric solid organ transplant recipients with Epstein-Barr virus viremia.

    PubMed

    Weintraub, Lauren; Weiner, Chana; Miloh, Tamir; Tomaino, Juli; Joashi, Umesh; Benchimol, Corinne; Strauchen, James; Roth, Michael; Wistinghausen, Birte

    2014-11-01

    Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) viremia (EV) in pediatric solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients is a significant risk factor for posttransplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) but not all patients with EV develop PTLD. We identify predictive factors for PTLD in patients with EV. We conducted a retrospective chart review of all pediatric SOT recipients (0 to 21 y) at a single institution between 2001 and 2009. A total of 350 pediatric patients received a SOT and 90 (25.7%) developed EV. Of EV patients, 28 (31%) developed PTLD. The median age at transplant was 11.5 months in the PTLD group and 21.5 months in the EV-only group (P=0.003). Twenty-three (37%) EV-only patients had immunosuppression increased before EV, compared with 28 (100%) of PTLD patients (P<0.001). The median peak EBV level was 3212 EBV copies/10 lymphocytes for EV-only and 8392.5 EBV copies/10 lymphocytes for PTLD (P=0.005). All patients who developed PTLD had ≥1 clinical symptoms. Younger age at transplant, increased immunosuppression before EV, higher peak EBV level, and presence of clinical symptoms have predictive value in the development of PTLD in SOT patients with EV.

  8. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as a tool to predict chemical activity on mammalian development and identify mechanisms influencing toxicological outcome

    PubMed Central

    Harlow, Philippa H.; Perry, Simon J.; Widdison, Stephanie; Daniels, Shannon; Bondo, Eddie; Lamberth, Clemens; Currie, Richard A.; Flemming, Anthony J.

    2016-01-01

    To determine whether a C. elegans bioassay could predict mammalian developmental activity, we selected diverse compounds known and known not to elicit such activity and measured their effect on C. elegans egg viability. 89% of compounds that reduced C. elegans egg viability also had mammalian developmental activity. Conversely only 25% of compounds found not to reduce egg viability in C. elegans were also inactive in mammals. We conclude that the C. elegans egg viability assay is an accurate positive predictor, but an inaccurate negative predictor, of mammalian developmental activity. We then evaluated C. elegans as a tool to identify mechanisms affecting toxicological outcomes among related compounds. The difference in developmental activity of structurally related fungicides in C. elegans correlated with their rate of metabolism. Knockdown of the cytochrome P450s cyp-35A3 and cyp-35A4 increased the toxicity to C. elegans of the least developmentally active compounds to the level of the most developmentally active. This indicated that these P450s were involved in the greater rate of metabolism of the less toxic of these compounds. We conclude that C. elegans based approaches can predict mammalian developmental activity and can yield plausible hypotheses for factors affecting the biological potency of compounds in mammals. PMID:26987796

  9. A simple and predictive phenotypic High Content Imaging assay for Plasmodium falciparum mature gametocytes to identify malaria transmission blocking compounds

    PubMed Central

    Lucantoni, Leonardo; Silvestrini, Francesco; Signore, Michele; Siciliano, Giulia; Eldering, Maarten; Dechering, Koen J.; Avery, Vicky M.; Alano, Pietro

    2015-01-01

    Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes, specifically the mature stages, are the only malaria parasite stage in humans transmissible to the mosquito vector. Anti-malarial drugs capable of killing these forms are considered essential for the eradication of malaria and tools allowing the screening of large compound libraries with high predictive power are needed to identify new candidates. As gametocytes are not a replicative stage it is difficult to apply the same drug screening methods used for asexual stages. Here we propose an assay, based on high content imaging, combining “classic” gametocyte viability readout based on gametocyte counts with a functional viability readout, based on gametocyte activation and the discrimination of the typical gamete spherical morphology. This simple and rapid assay has been miniaturized to a 384-well format using acridine orange staining of wild type P. falciparum 3D7A sexual forms, and was validated by screening reference antimalarial drugs and the MMV Malaria Box. The assay demonstrated excellent robustness and ability to identify quality hits with high likelihood of confirmation of transmission reducing activity in subsequent mosquito membrane feeding assays. PMID:26553647

  10. Comparison of predicted and derived measures of volatile organic compounds inside four relocatable classrooms due to identified interior finish sources

    SciTech Connect

    Hodgson, Alfred T.; Shendell, Derek G.; Fisk, William J.; Apte, Michael G.

    2003-06-01

    Indoor exposures to toxic and odorous volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are of general concern. Recently, VOCs in portable or relocatable classrooms (RCs) have received particular attention. However, very little was known about indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and the sources, composition, and indoor concentrations of VOCs in RCs. This project task focused on developing and demonstrating a process for selecting interior finish materials for RCs that have relatively low impacts with respect to their emissions of toxic and odorous VOCs. This task was part of a larger project to demonstrate the potential for simultaneous improvements in IEQ and energy efficiency in four new RCs equipped both with a continuously ventilating advanced heating, ventilating, and air conditioning system (HVAC) and a standard HVAC system. These HVACs were operated on alternate weeks. One RC per pair was constructed with standard interior finish materials, and the other included alternate interior materials identified in our prior laboratory study to have low VOC emissions. The RCs were sited in side-by-side pairs at two elementary schools in distinct northern California climate zones. Classroom VOC emission rates (mg hr{sup -1}) and concentrations were predicted based on VOC emission factors ({micro}g m{sup -2} hr{sup -1}) measured for individual materials in the laboratory, the quantities of installed materials and design ventilation rates. Predicted emission rates were compared to values derived from classroom measurements of VOC concentrations and ventilation rates made at pre-occupancy, eight weeks, and 27 weeks. Predicted concentrations were compared to measured integrated VOC indoor minus outdoor concentrations during school hours in the fall cooling season with the advanced HVAC operated. These measured concentrations also were compared between standard and material-modified RCs. Our combined laboratory and field process proved effective by correctly predicting that IEQ impacts of

  11. Surrogate end points for overall survival in breast cancer trials: A review.

    PubMed

    Fiteni, Frédéric; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-10-01

    Our aim was to review the studies which assessed potential surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in breast cancer trials. A Literature search in PubMed database of studies which assessed potential surrogate endpoints for OS in breast cancer trials was conducted. The surrogacy was assessed with the German institute of Quality and efficiency in Health Care's (IWQiG) framework and the Fleming hierarchy. Thirteen studies were identified. At the neoadjuvant setting, two individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses and one aggregate data meta-analysis assessing surrogacy of pathological complete response (PCR) were identified. Trial-level association was calculated in one study and the squared correlation was 0.24. Therefore PCR was not judged to be valid surrogate for OS at the neoadjuvant setting according to the IWQiG framework and Fleming hierarchy. At the adjuvant setting, one meta-analysis on aggregate data was identified. 2-year DFS was not judged to be valid surrogate for OS at the neoadjuvant setting according to the IWQiG framework and Fleming hierarchy. At the metastatic setting, six meta-analyses based on aggregate data, three IPD meta-analyses and one retrospective study were identified. Within the IPD meta-analyses, at the trial-level association the squared correlation between the potential surrogates and OS ranged from 0.10 to 0.57 and no endpoint was judged to be valid surrogate for OS at the metastatic setting. The level of evidence available supporting a relationship between OS and potential surrogate endpoints in breast cancer trials is low. PMID:27400447

  12. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    SciTech Connect

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-17

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO2 production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  13. Detailed chemical kinetic oxidation mechanism for a biodiesel surrogate

    SciTech Connect

    Herbinet, O; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K

    2007-09-20

    A detailed chemical kinetic mechanism has been developed and used to study the oxidation of methyl decanoate, a surrogate for biodiesel fuels. This model has been built by following the rules established by Curran et al. for the oxidation of n-heptane and it includes all the reactions known to be pertinent to both low and high temperatures. Computed results have been compared with methyl decanoate experiments in an engine and oxidation of rapeseed oil methyl esters in a jet stirred reactor. An important feature of this mechanism is its ability to reproduce the early formation of carbon dioxide that is unique to biofuels and due to the presence of the ester group in the reactant. The model also predicts ignition delay times and OH profiles very close to observed values in shock tube experiments fueled by n-decane. These model capabilities indicate that large n-alkanes can be good surrogates for large methyl esters and biodiesel fuels to predict overall reactivity, but some kinetic details, including early CO{sub 2} production from biodiesel fuels, can be predicted only by a detailed kinetic mechanism for a true methyl ester fuel. The present methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  14. Surrogate-based analysis and optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Queipo, Nestor V.; Haftka, Raphael T.; Shyy, Wei; Goel, Tushar; Vaidyanathan, Rajkumar; Kevin Tucker, P.

    2005-01-01

    A major challenge to the successful full-scale development of modern aerospace systems is to address competing objectives such as improved performance, reduced costs, and enhanced safety. Accurate, high-fidelity models are typically time consuming and computationally expensive. Furthermore, informed decisions should be made with an understanding of the impact (global sensitivity) of the design variables on the different objectives. In this context, the so-called surrogate-based approach for analysis and optimization can play a very valuable role. The surrogates are constructed using data drawn from high-fidelity models, and provide fast approximations of the objectives and constraints at new design points, thereby making sensitivity and optimization studies feasible. This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues that arise in surrogate-based analysis and optimization (SBAO), highlighting concepts, methods, techniques, as well as practical implications. The issues addressed include the selection of the loss function and regularization criteria for constructing the surrogates, design of experiments, surrogate selection and construction, sensitivity analysis, convergence, and optimization. The multi-objective optimal design of a liquid rocket injector is presented to highlight the state of the art and to help guide future efforts.

  15. Surrogate-based Analysis and Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Queipo, Nestor V.; Haftka, Raphael T.; Shyy, Wei; Goel, Tushar; Vaidyanathan, Raj; Tucker, P. Kevin

    2005-01-01

    A major challenge to the successful full-scale development of modem aerospace systems is to address competing objectives such as improved performance, reduced costs, and enhanced safety. Accurate, high-fidelity models are typically time consuming and computationally expensive. Furthermore, informed decisions should be made with an understanding of the impact (global sensitivity) of the design variables on the different objectives. In this context, the so-called surrogate-based approach for analysis and optimization can play a very valuable role. The surrogates are constructed using data drawn from high-fidelity models, and provide fast approximations of the objectives and constraints at new design points, thereby making sensitivity and optimization studies feasible. This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues that arise in surrogate-based analysis and optimization (SBAO), highlighting concepts, methods, techniques, as well as practical implications. The issues addressed include the selection of the loss function and regularization criteria for constructing the surrogates, design of experiments, surrogate selection and construction, sensitivity analysis, convergence, and optimization. The multi-objective optimal design of a liquid rocket injector is presented to highlight the state of the art and to help guide future efforts.

  16. Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

    2011-12-01

    saltwater intrusion are considered. The salinity levels resulting at strategic locations due to these pumping are predicted using the ensemble surrogates and are constrained to be within pre-specified levels. Different realizations of the concentration values are obtained from the ensemble predictions corresponding to each candidate solution of pumping. Reliability concept is incorporated as the percent of the total number of surrogate models which satisfy the imposed constraints. The methodology was applied to a realistic coastal aquifer system in Burdekin delta area in Australia. It was found that all optimal solutions corresponding to a reliability level of 0.99 satisfy all the constraints and as reducing reliability level decreases the constraint violation increases. Thus ensemble surrogate model based simulation-optimization was found to be useful in deriving multi-objective optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers under parameter uncertainty.

  17. Development of Surrogate Spinal Cords for the Evaluation of Electrode Arrays Used in Intraspinal Implants

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Cheng; Kmech, Jonn; Mushahwar, Vivian K.

    2013-01-01

    We report the development of a surrogate spinal cord for evaluating the mechanical suitability of electrode arrays for intraspinal implants. The mechanical and interfacial properties of candidate materials (including silicone elastomers and gelatin hydrogels) for the surrogate cord were tested. The elastic modulus was characterized using dynamic mechanical analysis, and compared with values of actual human spinal cords from the literature. Forces required to indent the surrogate cords to specified depths were measured to obtain values under static conditions. Importantly, to quantify surface properties in addition to mechanical properties normally considered, interfacial frictional forces were measured by pulling a needle out of each cord at a controlled rate. The measured forces were then compared to those obtained from rat spinal cords. Formaldehyde-crosslinked gelatin, 12 wt% in water, was identified as the most suitable material for the construction of surrogate spinal cords. To demonstrate the utility of surrogate spinal cords in evaluating the behavior of various electrode arrays, cords were implanted with two types of intraspinal electrode arrays (one made of individual microwires and another of microwires anchored with a solid base), and cord deformation under elongation was evaluated. The results demonstrate that the surrogate model simulates the mechanical and interfacial properties of the spinal cord, and enables in vitro screening of intraspinal implants. PMID:23358939

  18. Predicting the spatial distribution of a seabird community to identify priority conservation areas in the Timor Sea.

    PubMed

    Lavers, Jennifer L; Miller, Mark G R; Carter, Michael J; Swann, George; Clarke, Rohan H

    2014-12-01

    Understanding spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of species is fundamental to the conservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. To support strategic decision making aimed at sustainable management of the oceans, such as the establishment of protected areas for marine wildlife, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies seabird aggregations in the Timor Sea. We developed species distribution models for 21 seabird species based on at-sea survey observations from 2000-2013 and oceanographic variables (e.g., bathymetry). We applied 4 statistical modeling techniques and combined the results into an ensemble model with robust performance. The ensemble model predicted the probability of seabird occurrence in areas where few or no surveys had been conducted and demonstrated 3 areas of high seabird richness that varied little between seasons. These were located within 150 km of Adele Island, Ashmore Reef, and the Lacepede Islands, 3 of the largest aggregations of breeding seabirds in Australia. Although these breeding islands were foci for high species richness, model performance was greatest for 3 nonbreeding migratory species that would have been overlooked had regional monitoring been restricted to islands. Our results indicate many seabird hotspots in the Timor Sea occur outside existing reserves (e.g., Ashmore Reef Marine Reserve), where shipping, fisheries, and offshore development likely pose a threat to resident and migratory populations. Our results highlight the need to expand marine spatial planning efforts to ensure biodiversity assets are appropriately represented in marine reserves. Correspondingly, our results support the designation of at least 4 new important bird areas, for example, surrounding Adele Island and Ashmore Reef.

  19. Parents and children: "surrogate" paradigm of modernity.

    PubMed

    Adam, Archimandrite; Akhaladze, Vakhtang

    2011-06-01

    The article provides an overview of surrogate motherhood--one of many currently available forms of Assisted Reproductive Technologies for couples who find themselves unable to conceive a child on their own. Within the years of its existence surrogate motherhood managed to accumulate lots of bioethical problems, paradoxes, dilemmas and collisions. Author represents some of them. Also the legal, moral and religious implications of surrogacy are addressed. The religious perspective from the Orthodox Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Hinduism, and Islamic points of view are provided. The author concludes that surrogate motherhood is not only the answer to childlessness but it supports metamorphosis of traditional attitude towards such human value as it is a family. PMID:21778532

  20. Immunohistochemical Validation of Overexpressed Genes Identified by Global Expression Microarrays in Adrenocortical Carcinoma Reveals Potential Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Ip, Julian C.Y.; Pang, Tony C.Y.; Glover, Anthony R.; Soon, Patsy; Zhao, Jing Ting; Clarke, Stephen; Robinson, Bruce G.; Gill, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a rare malignancy with a poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to identify novel protein signatures that would predict clinical outcomes in a large cohort of patients with ACC based on data from previous gene expression microarray studies. Materials and Methods. A tissue microarray was generated from the paraffin tissue blocks of 61 patients with clinical outcomes data. Selected protein biomarkers based on previous gene expression microarray profiling studies were selected, and immunohistochemistry staining was performed. Staining patterns were correlated with clinical outcomes, and a multivariate analysis was undertaken to identify potential biomarkers of prognosis. Results. Median overall survival was 45 months, with a 5-year overall survival rate of 44%. Median disease-free survival was 58 months, with a 5-year disease-free survival rate of 44%. The proliferation marker Ki-67 and DNA topoisomerase TOP2A were associated with significantly poorer overall and disease-free survival. The results also showed strong correlation between the transcriptional repressor EZH2 and TOP2A expression, suggesting a novel role for EZH2 as an additional marker of prognosis. In contrast, increased expression of the BARD1 protein, with its ubiquitin ligase function, was associated with significantly improved overall and disease-free survival, which has yet to be documented for ACC. Conclusion. We present novel biomarkers that assist in determining prognosis for patients with ACC. Ki-67, TOP2A, and EZH2 were all significantly associated with poorer outcomes, whereas BARD1 was associated with improved overall survival. It is hoped that these biomarkers may help tailor additional therapy and be potential targets for directed therapy. PMID:25657202

  1. Surrogates for herbicide removal in stormwater biofilters.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kefeng; Deletic, Ana; Page, Declan; McCarthy, David T

    2015-09-15

    Real time monitoring of suitable surrogate parameters are critical to the validation of any water treatment processes, and is of particularly high importance for validation of natural stormwater treatment systems. In this study, potential surrogates for herbicide removal in stormwater biofilters (also known as stormwater bio-retention or rain-gardens) were assessed using field challenge tests and matched laboratory column experiments. Differential UV absorbance at 254mn (ΔUVA254), total phosphorus (ΔTP), dissolved phosphorus (ΔDP), total nitrogen (ΔTN), ammonia (ΔNH3), nitrate and nitrite (ΔNO3+NO2), dissolved organic carbon (ΔDOC) and total suspended solids (ΔTSS) were compared with glyphosate, atrazine, simazine and prometryn removal rates. The influence of different challenge conditions on the performance of each surrogate was studied. Differential TP was significantly and linearly related to glyphosate reduction (R(2) = 0.75-0.98, P < 0.01), while ΔTP and ΔUVA254 were linearly correlated (R(2) = 0.44-0.84, P < 0.05) to the reduction of triazines (atrazine, simazine and prometryn) in both field and laboratory tests. The performance of ΔTP and ΔUVA254 as surrogates for herbicides were reliable under normal and challenge dry conditions, but weaker correlations were observed under challenge wet conditions. Of those tested, ΔTP is the most promising surrogate for glyphosate removal and ΔUVA254 is a suitable surrogate for triazines removal in stormwater biofilters.

  2. Skin penetration surrogate for the evaluation of less lethal kinetic energy munitions.

    PubMed

    Bir, Cynthia A; Resslar, Marianne; Stewart, Shelby

    2012-07-10

    Although the benefits of the use of less lethal kinetic energy munitions are numerous, there is a need to evaluate the munitions prior to deployment to ensure their intended effect. The objective of the current research was to validate a surrogate that could be used to predict the risk of penetration of these devices. Existing data from biomechanical testing with post-mortem human specimens (PMHS) served as the foundation for this research. Development of the surrogate involved simulating the various layers of the skin and underlying soft tissues using a combination of materials. A standardized 12-gauge impactor was used to assess each combination. The energy density that resulted in a 50% risk of penetration for the anterior thorax region (23.99 J/cm(2)) from the previous research was matched using a specific combination of layers. Twelve various combinations of materials were tested with the 50% risk of penetration determined. The final validated surrogate consisted of a Laceration Assessment Layer (LAL) of natural chamois and .6 cm of closed-cell foam over a Penetration Assessment Layer (PAL) of 20% ordnance gelatin. This surrogate predicted a 50% risk of penetration at 23.88 J/cm(2). Injury risk curves for the PMHS and surrogate development work are presented.

  3. Surrogates and extra-familial interests.

    PubMed

    Baergen, Ralph; Woodhouse, William

    2013-01-01

    A case is presented in which the therapeutic interests of the patient conflict with the safety of a community, and in which the surrogate decision maker has very limited knowledge of or concern for the patient's preferences. The substituted judgment and best interest (or rational patient) standards for surrogate decision making are problematic in this case. It is argued that the interests of even those outside the family ought to be taken seriously when making decisions about such cases, and it is proposed that clinical ethics committees could play a new role here. This case also illustrates the difficulties of making decisions regarding the treatment of a very unlikable patient. PMID:24597420

  4. A government bill on surrogate motherhood?

    PubMed

    Deitch, R

    1985-01-19

    Britain's Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS) seems to have badly miscalculated in discounting the political necessity of immediately introducing legislation to ban surrogate parenthood arrangements. After the birth of a baby in a case involving a financial arrangement among a surrogate mother, an agency, and the natural father and his wife, pressures from the House of Commons and from Prime Minister Thatcher are now forcing the DHSS to find a slot in the legislative timetable that would enable a government bill on the subject to be enacted this year. PMID:2857262

  5. Using the integrative model of behavioral prediction to identify promising message strategies to promote healthy sleep behavior among college students.

    PubMed

    Robbins, Rebecca; Niederdeppe, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    This research used the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction (IMBP) to examine cognitive predictors of intentions to engage in healthy sleep behavior among a population of college students. In doing so, we identify promising message strategies to increase healthy sleep behavior during college. In Phase 1, members of a small sample of undergraduates (n = 31) were asked to describe their beliefs about expected outcomes, norms, and perceived behavioral control associated with sleep on an open-ended questionnaire. We analyzed these qualitative responses to create a closed-ended survey about sleep-related attitudes, perceived norms, control beliefs, behavioral intentions, and behavior. In Phase 2, a larger sample of undergraduate students (n = 365) completed the survey. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were the strongest predictors of both intentions to engage in sleep behavior and self-reported sleep behavior. Control beliefs associated with time management and stress also had substantial room to change, suggesting their potential as message strategies to better promote healthy sleep behavior in college. We conclude with a broader discussion of the study's implications for message design and intervention.

  6. A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2016-10-01

    A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.

  7. Global Optimization Using Mixed Surrogates and Space Elimination in Computationally Intensive Engineering Designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Younis, Adel; Dong, Zuomin

    2012-07-01

    Surrogate-based modeling is an effective search method for global design optimization over well-defined areas using complex and computationally intensive analysis and simulation tools. However, indentifying the appreciate surrogate models and their suitable areas remains a challenge that requires extensive human intervention. In this work, a new global optimization algorithm, namely Mixed Surrogate and Space Elimination (MSSE) method, is introduced. Representative surrogate models, including Quadratic Response Surface, Radial Basis function, and Kriging, are mixed with different weight ratios to form an adaptive metamodel with best tested performance. The approach divides the field of interest into several unimodal regions; identifies and ranks the regions that likely contain the global minimum; fits the weighted surrogate models over each promising region using additional design experiment data points from Latin Hypercube Designs and adjusts the weights according to the performance of each model; identifies its minimum and removes the processed region; and moves to the next most promising region until all regions are processed and the global optimum is identified. The proposed algorithm was tested using several benchmark problems for global optimization and compared with several widely used space exploration global optimization algorithms, showing reduced computation efforts, robust performance and comparable search accuracy, making the proposed method an excellent tool for computationally intensive global design optimization problems.

  8. Experimental and kinetic modeling study of combustion of JP-8, its surrogates and components in laminar premixed flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seshadri, Kalyanasundaram; Frassoldati, Alessio; Cuoci, Alberto; Faravelli, Tiziano; Niemann, Ulrich; Weydert, Patrick; Ranzi, Eliseo

    2011-08-01

    Experimental and kinetic modeling studies are carried out to characterize premixed combustion of jet fuels, their surrogates, and reference components in laminar nonuniform flows. In previous studies, it was established that the Aachen surrogate made up of 80 % n-decane and 20 % trimethylbenzene by weight, and surrogate C made up of 57 % n-dodecane, 21 % methylcyclohexane and 22 % o-xylene by weight, reproduce key aspects of combustion of jet fuels in laminar nonpremixed flows. Here, these surrogates and a jet fuel are tested in premixed, nonuniform flows. The counterflow configuration is employed, and critical conditions of extinction are measured. In addition, the reference components tested are n-heptane, n-decane, n-dodecane, methylcyclohexane, trimethylbenzene, and o-xylene. Measured critical conditions of extinction of the Aachen surrogate and surrogate C are compared with those for the jet fuel. In general the alkanes n-heptane, n-decane, and n-dodecane, and methylcyclohexane are found to be more reactive than the aromatics o-xylene and trimethylbenzene. Flame structure and critical conditions of extinction are predicted for the reference components and the surrogates using a semi-detailed kinetic model. The predicted values are compared with experimental data. Sensitivity analysis shows that the lower reactivity of the aromatic species arises from the formation of resonantly stabilized radicals. These radicals are found to have a scavenging effect. The present study on premixed flows together with previous studies on nonpremixed flows show that the Aachen surrogate and surrogate C reproduce many aspects of premixed and nonpremixed combustion of jet fuels.

  9. 34 CFR 300.519 - Surrogate parents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF SPECIAL EDUCATION AND.... This must include a method— (1) For determining whether a child needs a surrogate parent; and (2) For...— (1) The identification, evaluation, and educational placement of the child; and (2) The provision...

  10. 34 CFR 300.519 - Surrogate parents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF SPECIAL EDUCATION AND.... This must include a method— (1) For determining whether a child needs a surrogate parent; and (2) For...— (1) The identification, evaluation, and educational placement of the child; and (2) The provision...

  11. 34 CFR 303.422 - Surrogate parents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 34 Education 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Surrogate parents. 303.422 Section 303.422 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF SPECIAL EDUCATION AND REHABILITATIVE SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION EARLY INTERVENTION PROGRAM FOR INFANTS AND TODDLERS WITH DISABILITIES Procedural Safeguards...

  12. Surrogate Motherhood I: Responses to Infertility.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Lita Linzer

    1987-01-01

    Surrogate motherhood is a path to parenthood filled with legal "potholes" and psychological "rocks." Mental health specialists, especially marital and family therapists, may well be called upon to provide their professional services to people attempting to negotiate it. Introduces a number of potential hazards, presenting the points at which…

  13. RELIABILITY OF SURROGATES FOR DETERMINING CRYPTOSPORIDIUM REMOVAL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Testing of field-scale bag filtration systems yielded results indicating that 4-6-um polystyrene microspheres can be used as a reliable surrogate for determining Cryptosporidium oocyst removal in bag filtration process. A nearly perfect linear correlation was observed between log...

  14. Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI of Cervical Cancers: Temporal Percentile Screening of Contrast Enhancement Identifies Parameters for Prediction of Chemoradioresistance

    SciTech Connect

    Andersen, Erlend K.F.; Hole, Knut Hakon; Lund, Kjersti V.; Sundfor, Kolbein; Kristensen, Gunnar B.; Lyng, Heidi; Malinen, Eirik

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To systematically screen the tumor contrast enhancement of locally advanced cervical cancers to assess the prognostic value of two descriptive parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI). Methods and Materials: This study included a prospectively collected cohort of 81 patients who underwent DCE-MRI with gadopentetate dimeglumine before chemoradiotherapy. The following descriptive DCE-MRI parameters were extracted voxel by voxel and presented as histograms for each time point in the dynamic series: normalized relative signal increase (nRSI) and normalized area under the curve (nAUC). The first to 100th percentiles of the histograms were included in a log-rank survival test, resulting in p value and relative risk maps of all percentile-time intervals for each DCE-MRI parameter. The maps were used to evaluate the robustness of the individual percentile-time pairs and to construct prognostic parameters. Clinical endpoints were locoregional control and progression-free survival. The study was approved by the institutional ethics committee. Results: The p value maps of nRSI and nAUC showed a large continuous region of percentile-time pairs that were significantly associated with locoregional control (p < 0.05). These parameters had prognostic impact independent of tumor stage, volume, and lymph node status on multivariate analysis. Only a small percentile-time interval of nRSI was associated with progression-free survival. Conclusions: The percentile-time screening identified DCE-MRI parameters that predict long-term locoregional control after chemoradiotherapy of cervical cancer.

  15. Surrogate Mobility and Orientation Affect the Early Neurobehavioral Development of Infant Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta)

    PubMed Central

    Dettmer, Amanda M.; Ruggerio, Angela M.; Novak, Melinda A.; Meyer, Jerrold S.; Suomi, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    A biological mother’s movement appears necessary for optimal development in infant monkeys. However, nursery-reared monkeys are typically provided with inanimate surrogate mothers that move very little. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a novel, highly mobile surrogate mother on motor development, exploration, and reactions to novelty. Six infant rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) were reared on mobile hanging surrogates (MS) and compared to six infants reared on standard stationary rocking surrogates (RS) and to 9-15 infants reared with their biological mothers (MR) for early developmental outcome. We predicted that MS infants would develop more similarly to MR infants than RS infants. In neonatal assessments conducted at day 30, both MS and MR infants showed more highly developed motor activity than RS infants on measures of grasping (p=.009), coordination (p=.038), spontaneous crawl (p=.009), and balance (p=.003). At 2-3 months of age, both MS and MR infants displayed higher levels of exploration in the home cage than RS infants (p=.016). In a novel situation in which only MS and RS infants were tested, MS infants showed less of a stress response, spending less time near their surrogates in the first five minutes of the test session than RS infants (p=.05) and exhibiting a significantly lower rise in salivary cortisol after the test than RS infants (p=.018). Collectively, these results suggest that when nursery-rearing of infant monkeys is necessary, a mobile hanging surrogate may encourage more normative development of gross motor skills and exploratory behavior and may serve as a useful alternative to stationary or rocking surrogates. PMID:19810188

  16. Uncertainty quantification of squeal instability via surrogate modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobari, Amir; Ouyang, Huajiang; Bannister, Paul

    2015-08-01

    One of the major issues that car manufacturers are facing is the noise and vibration of brake systems. Of the different sorts of noise and vibration, which a brake system may generate, squeal as an irritating high-frequency noise costs the manufacturers significantly. Despite considerable research that has been conducted on brake squeal, the root cause of squeal is still not fully understood. The most common assumption, however, is mode-coupling. Complex eigenvalue analysis is the most widely used approach to the analysis of brake squeal problems. One of the major drawbacks of this technique, nevertheless, is that the effects of variability and uncertainty are not included in the results. Apparently, uncertainty and variability are two inseparable parts of any brake system. Uncertainty is mainly caused by friction, contact, wear and thermal effects while variability mostly stems from the manufacturing process, material properties and component geometries. Evaluating the effects of uncertainty and variability in the complex eigenvalue analysis improves the predictability of noise propensity and helps produce a more robust design. The biggest hurdle in the uncertainty analysis of brake systems is the computational cost and time. Most uncertainty analysis techniques rely on the results of many deterministic analyses. A full finite element model of a brake system typically consists of millions of degrees-of-freedom and many load cases. Running time of such models is so long that automotive industry is reluctant to do many deterministic analyses. This paper, instead, proposes an efficient method of uncertainty propagation via surrogate modelling. A surrogate model of a brake system is constructed in order to reproduce the outputs of the large-scale finite element model and overcome the issue of computational workloads. The probability distribution of the real part of an unstable mode can then be obtained by using the surrogate model with a massive saving of

  17. Kinetic Modeling of Gasoline Surrogate Components and Mixtures under Engine Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Mehl, M; Pitz, W J; Westbrook, C K; Curran, H J

    2010-01-11

    Real fuels are complex mixtures of thousands of hydrocarbon compounds including linear and branched paraffins, naphthenes, olefins and aromatics. It is generally agreed that their behavior can be effectively reproduced by simpler fuel surrogates containing a limited number of components. In this work, an improved version of the kinetic model by the authors is used to analyze the combustion behavior of several components relevant to gasoline surrogate formulation. Particular attention is devoted to linear and branched saturated hydrocarbons (PRF mixtures), olefins (1-hexene) and aromatics (toluene). Model predictions for pure components, binary mixtures and multicomponent gasoline surrogates are compared with recent experimental information collected in rapid compression machine, shock tube and jet stirred reactors covering a wide range of conditions pertinent to internal combustion engines (3-50 atm, 650-1200K, stoichiometric fuel/air mixtures). Simulation results are discussed focusing attention on the mixing effects of the fuel components.

  18. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    SciTech Connect

    Malinowski, Kathleen T.; McAvoy, Thomas J.; George, Rohini; Dieterich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.

  19. Robust estimation of the proportion of treatment effect explained by surrogate marker information.

    PubMed

    Parast, Layla; McDermott, Mary M; Tian, Lu

    2016-05-10

    In randomized treatment studies where the primary outcome requires long follow-up of patients and/or expensive or invasive obtainment procedures, the availability of a surrogate marker that could be used to estimate the treatment effect and could potentially be observed earlier than the primary outcome would allow researchers to make conclusions regarding the treatment effect with less required follow-up time and resources. The Prentice criterion for a valid surrogate marker requires that a test for treatment effect on the surrogate marker also be a valid test for treatment effect on the primary outcome of interest. Based on this criterion, methods have been developed to define and estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on the surrogate marker. These methods aim to identify useful statistical surrogates that capture a large proportion of the treatment effect. However, current methods to estimate this proportion usually require restrictive model assumptions that may not hold in practice and thus may lead to biased estimates of this quantity. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric procedure to estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on a potential surrogate marker and extend this procedure to a setting with multiple surrogate markers. We compare our approach with previously proposed model-based approaches and propose a variance estimation procedure based on a perturbation-resampling method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well in finite samples and outperforms model-based procedures when the specified models are not correct. We illustrate our proposed procedure using a data set from a randomized study investigating a group-mediated cognitive behavioral intervention for peripheral artery disease participants.

  20. Surrogate analysis and index developer (SAID) tool and real-time data dissemination utilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Wood, Molly S.; Landers, Mark N.; Wall, Gary R.; Brady, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates are tools to process and evaluate the data along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research, and on surrogate monitoring sites currently in operation. The Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) standalone tool, under development by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assists in the creation of regression models that relate response and explanatory variables by providing visual and quantitative diagnostics to the user. SAID also processes acoustic parameters to be used as explanatory variables for suspended-sediment concentrations. The sediment acoustic method utilizes acoustic parameters from fixed-mount stationary equipment. The background theory and method used by the tool have been described in recent publications, and the tool also serves to support sediment-acoustic-index methods being drafted by the multi-agency Sediment Acoustic Leadership Team (SALT), and other surrogate guidelines like USGS Techniques and Methods 3-C4 for turbidity and SSC. The regression models in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water-quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

  1. Reversible Bending Fatigue Testing on Zry-4 Surrogate Rods

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Jy-An John; Wang, Hong; Bevard, Bruce Balkcom; Howard, Rob L

    2014-01-01

    Testing high-burnup spent nuclear fuel (SNF) presents many challenges in areas such as specimen preparation, specimen installation, mechanical loading, load control, measurements, data acquisition, and specimen disposal because these tasks are complicated by the radioactivity of the test specimens. Research and comparison studies conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) resulted in a new concept in 2010 for a U-frame testing setup on which to perform hot-cell reversible bending fatigue testing. Subsequently, the three-dimensional finite element analysis and the engineering design of components were completed. In 2013 the ORNL team finalized the upgrade of the U-frame testing setup and the integration of the U-frame setup into a Bose dual linear motor test bench to develop a cyclic integrated reversible-bending fatigue tester (CIRFT). A final check was conducted on the CIRFT test system in August 2013, and the CIRFT was installed in the hot cell in September 2013 to evaluate both the static and dynamic mechanical response of SNF rods under simulated loads. The fatigue responses of Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) cladding and the role of pellet pellet and pellet clad interactions are critical to SNF vibration integrity, but such data are not available due to the unavailability of an effective testing system. While the deployment of the developed CIRFT test system in a hot cell will provide the opportunity to generate the data, the use of a surrogate rod has proven quite effective in identifying the underlying deformation mechanism of an SNF composite rod under an equivalent loading condition. This paper presents the experimental results of using surrogate rods under CIRFT reversible cyclic loading. Specifically, monotonic and cyclic bending tests were conducted on surrogate rods made of a Zry-4 tube and alumina pellet inserts, both with and without an epoxy bond.

  2. Spinal canal surrogate for testing intradural implants.

    PubMed

    Oya, H; Howard, M A; Shurig, R; Gillies, G T

    2012-11-01

    We have designed, built and tested an anthropomorphic-scale surrogate spinal canal, for use in preliminary evaluations of the performance characteristics of a novel intradural spinal cord stimulator. The surrogate employs a silicone mock spinal cord with semi-major and semi-minor diameters of 10 and 6 mm, respectively, commensurate with those of actual thoracic-level spinal cord. The axial restoring force provided by the 300 µm thick silicone denticulate ligament constructs on the mock cord is ~ 0.32 N mm(-1) over a 1.5 mm range of displacement, which is within a factor of 2 of that measured by others in human cadaver specimens. Examples of testing protocols of prototype intradural stimulators that employ this device are discussed. PMID:22953718

  3. Chemoprevention trials and surrogate end point biomarkers in the cervix.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, M F; Hittelman, W K; Lotan, R; Nishioka, K; Tortolero-Luna, G; Richards-Kortum, R; Wharton, J T; Hong, W K

    1995-11-15

    Cervical cancer is the second most common malignancy in women worldwide and remains a significant health problem for women, especially minority and underserved women. Despite an understanding of the epidemiologic risks, the screening Papanicolaou smear, and morbid and costly treatment, overall survival remains 40%. New strategies, based on the clinical and molecular aspects of cervical carcinogenesis, are desperately needed. Chemoprevention refers to the use of chemical agents to prevent or delay the development of cancer in healthy populations. Chemoprevention studies have several unique features that distinguish them from classic chemotherapeutic trials; these features touch on several disciplines and weave knowledge of the biology of carcinogenesis into the trial design. In the design of chemoprevention trials, four factors are important: high risk cohorts must be identified; suitable medications must be selected; study designs should include Phases I, II, and III; and studies should include the use of surrogate end point biomarkers. Surrogate end point biomarkers are sought because the cancer develops over a long period of time, and studies of chemopreventives would require a huge number of subjects followed for many years. Surrogate end point biomarkers serve as alternative end points for examination of the efficacy of chemopreventives in tissue. High risk cohorts include women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL). Nutritional studies have helped define micronutrients of interest (folate, carotenoids, vitamin C, vitamin E). Other medications of interest include retinoids (4-hydroxyphenylretinamide [4-HPR], retinyl acetate gel, topical all-trans-retinoic acid), polyamine synthesis inhibitors (alpha-difluoromethylornithine [DFMO]), and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen). Phase I chemoprevention studies of the cervix have tested retinyl acetate gel and all-trans-retinoic acid. Phase II trials of all

  4. Dry deposition of sulfate onto surrogate surfaces

    SciTech Connect

    Davidson, C.I.; Cartwright, L.G.; Landis, L.R.; Lindberg, S.E.; Schmidt, J.A.

    1985-02-20

    Measurements of SO/sub 4//sup 2 -/ fluxes to surrogate surfaces have been conducted as part of the Dry Deposition Intercomparison Study in Champaign, Illinois. Data for Teflon plates without rims and for polycarbonate petri dishes with 1-cm rims have been obtained and compared with data for Teflon sheets and polyethylene dustfall buckets used by other investigators. Results show that deposition velocities for the Teflon plates are in the range of 0.17-0.42 cm/s, while corresponding values for the petri dishes are in the range of 0.18-0.61 cm/s. Comparisons among the four types of surrogate surfaces show deposition velocities which increase in the order Teflon sheets approx.Teflon plates surrogate surfaces. The calculated values for natural grass surfaces are in reasonable agreement with measured deposition velocities onto the petri dishes. Overall, the results of this study suggest that inertial impaction and sedimentation of supermicron airborne particles are more important than deposition of submicron material in influencing total SO/sub 4//sup 2 -/ mass deposition into surrogate surfaces and onto natural vegetation at this site.

  5. RARE Grant- Atmospheric Dry Deposition: Quantification of Mercury and Nutrients using Novel Surrogate Surface Collector Techniques

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study will quantify the daily surrogate surface dry deposition of mercury and nutrient species, and evaluate its relative importance to wet deposition at two sites in Florida over a two-year period. It will identify the major sources contributing to the observed mercury and...

  6. Methodology and application of surrogate plant PRA analysis to the Rancho Seco Power Plant: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, B.F.; Huenefeld, J.C.

    1987-07-01

    This report presents the development and the first application of generic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information for identifying systems and components important to public risk at nuclear power plants lacking plant-specific PRAs. A methodology is presented for using the results of PRAs for similar (surrogate) plants, along with plant-specific information about the plant of interest and the surrogate plants, to infer important failure modes for systems of the plant of interest. This methodology, and the rationale on which it is based, is presented in the context of its application to the Rancho Seco plant. The Rancho Seco plant has been analyzed using PRA information from two surrogate plants. This analysis has been used to guide development of considerable plant-specific information about Rancho Seco systems and components important to minimizing public risk, which is also presented herein.

  7. Validating (d,p gamma) as a Surrogate for Neutron Capture

    SciTech Connect

    Ratkiewicz, A.; Cizewski, J.A.; Pain, S.D.; Adekola, A.S.; Burke, J.T.; Casperson, R.J.; Fotiades, N.; McCleskey, M.; Burcher, S.; Shand, C.M.; Austin, R.A.E.; Baugher, T.; Carpenter, M.P.; Devlin, M.; Escher, J.E.; Hardy, S.; Hatarik, R.; Howard, M.E.; Hughes, R.O.; Jones, K.L.; Kozub, R.L.; Lister, C.J.; Manning, B.; O’Donnell, J.M.; Peters, W.A.; Ross, T.J.; Scielzo, N.D.; Seweryniak, D.; Zhu, S.; Schwengner, R.; Zuber, K.

    2015-05-28

    The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the r-process may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,pγ) reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,γ) reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,pγ) as a surrogate for (n,γ) using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the γ-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,γ) and 95Mo(d,pγ) reactions.

  8. Validating (d,p gamma) as a Surrogate for Neutron Capture

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Ratkiewicz, A.; Cizewski, J.A.; Pain, S.D.; Adekola, A.S.; Burke, J.T.; Casperson, R.J.; Fotiades, N.; McCleskey, M.; Burcher, S.; Shand, C.M.; et al

    2015-05-28

    The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the r-process may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,pγ) reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,γ) reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,pγ) as a surrogate formore » (n,γ) using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the γ-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,γ) and 95Mo(d,pγ) reactions.« less

  9. Validating (d,pγ) as a surrogate for neutron capture

    SciTech Connect

    Ratkiewicz, A.; Cizewski, J. A.; Pain, S. D.; Adekola, A. S.; Burke, J. T.; Casperson, R. J.; Fotiadis, Nikolaos; McCleskey, M.; Burcher, S.; Shand, C. M; Austin, R. A. E.; Baugher, T.; Carpenter, M. P.; Devlin, Matthew James; Escher, J. E.; Hardy, S.; Hatarik, R.; Howard, M. E.; Hughes, R. O.; Jones, K. L.; Kozub, R. L.; Lister, C. J.; Manning, B.; O'Donnell, John M.; Peters, W. A.; Ross, T. J.; Scielzo, N. D.; Seweryniak, D.; Zhu, S.

    2015-02-13

    The r-process is responsible for creating roughly half of the elements heavier than iron. It has recently become understood that the rates at which neutron capture reactions proceed at late times in the r-process may dramatically affect the final abundance pattern. However, direct measurements of neutron capture reaction rates on exotic nuclei are exceptionally difficult, necessitating the development of indirect approaches such as the surrogate technique. The (d,pγ) reaction at low energies was identified as a promising surrogate for the (n,γ) reaction, as both reactions share many characteristics. We report on a program to validate (d,pγ) as a surrogate for (n,γ) using 95Mo as a target. The experimental campaign includes direct measurements of the γ-ray intensities from the decay of excited states populated in the 95Mo(n,γ) and 95Mo(d,pγ) reactions.

  10. An information-theoretic approach for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints based on causal inference.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Ariel; Van der Elst, Wim; Molenberghs, Geert; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2016-09-01

    In this work a new metric of surrogacy, the so-called individual causal association (ICA), is introduced using information-theoretic concepts and a causal inference model for a binary surrogate and true endpoint. The ICA has a simple and appealing interpretation in terms of uncertainty reduction and, in some scenarios, it seems to provide a more coherent assessment of the validity of a surrogate than existing measures. The identifiability issues are tackled using a two-step procedure. In the first step, the region of the parametric space of the distribution of the potential outcomes, compatible with the data at hand, is geometrically characterized. Further, in a second step, a Monte Carlo approach is proposed to study the behavior of the ICA on the previous region. The method is illustrated using data from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study. A newly developed and user-friendly R package Surrogate is provided to carry out the evaluation exercise. PMID:26864244

  11. Selecting focal species as surrogates for imperiled species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Silvano, Amy; Guyer, Craig; Steury, Todd; Grand, James B.

    2017-01-01

    Most imperiled species are rare or elusive and difficult to detect, which makes gathering data to estimate their response to habitat restoration a challenge. We used a repeatable, systematic method for selecting focal species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis. Our objective was to select suites of focal species that would be useful as surrogates when predicting effects of restoration of habitat characteristics preferred by imperiled species. We developed 27 habitat profiles that represent general habitat relationships for 118 imperiled species. We identified 23 regularly encountered species that were sensitive to important aspects of those profiles. We validated our approach by examining the correlation between estimated probabilities of occupancy for species of concern and focal species selected using our method. Occupancy rates of focal species were more related to occupancy rates of imperiled species when they were sensitive to more of the parameters appearing in profiles of imperiled species. We suggest that this approach can be an effective means of predicting responses by imperiled species to proposed management actions. However, adequate monitoring will be required to determine the effectiveness of using focal species to guide management actions.

  12. The Surrogate Method: Past, Present and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Lesher, S R; Bernstein, L A; Burke, J T; Lyles, B F; Clark, R M; Fallon, P; Phair, L

    2008-01-09

    The STARS/LiBerACE collaboration has been exploring the surrogate technique with success in the actinide region. This method uses a direct reaction to measure the decay probability of the same compound nucleus produced via a neutron-induced channel. This paper serves as an overview of these activities. Using the STARS array at 88-inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory we have explored the following surrogate reactions: {sup 234}U({alpha}, {alpha}{prime}f), {sup 235}U({sup 3}He, {alpha}f), {sup 236}U({alpha}, {alpha}{prime}f), {sup 238}U ({alpha},{alpha}{prime}f), {sup 238}U({sup 3}He,{alpha}f), {sup 238}U({sup 3}He, tf) surrogates for {sup 233}U(n,f), {sup 233}U(n,f), {sup 235}U(n,f), {sup 237}U(n,f), {sup 236}U(n,f), and {sup 237}Np(n,f), respectively.

  13. Effectiveness of vegetation surrogates for parasitoid wasps in reserve selection.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Sally E M; Beresford, Alison E; Peters, Jennifer; Redhead, John W; Welch, Alastair J; Mayhew, Peter J; Dytham, Calvin

    2009-02-01

    Selecting suitable nature reserves is a continuing challenge in conservation, particularly for target groups that are time-consuming to survey, species rich, and extinction prone. One such group is the parasitoid Hymenoptera, which have been excluded from conservation planning. If basic characteristics of habitats or vegetation could be used as reliable surrogates of specific target taxa, this would greatly facilitate appropriate reserve selection. We identified a range of potential habitat indicators of the species richness of pimpline parasitoid communities (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Pimplinae, Diacritinae, Poemeniinae) and tested their efficiency at capturing the observed diversity in a group of small woodlands in the agricultural landscape of the Vale of York (United Kingdom). Eight of the 18 vegetation-based reserve-selection strategies were significantly better at parasitoid species inclusion than random selection of areas. The best strategy maximized richness of tree species over the entire reserve network through complementarity. This strategy omitted only 2-3 species more (out of 38 captured in the landscape as a whole) than selections derived from the parasitoid survey data. In general, strategies worked equally well at capturing species richness and rarity. Our results suggest that vegetation data as a surrogate for species richness could prove an informative tool in parasitoid conservation, but further work is needed to test how broadly applicable these indicators may be.

  14. Surrogates for macrofungi and mosses in reservation planning.

    PubMed

    McMullan-Fisher, Sapphire J M; Kirkpatrick, Jamie B; May, Tom W; Pharo, Emma J

    2010-06-01

    Our knowledge of cryptogam taxonomy and species distributions is currently too poor to directly plan for their conservation. We used inventory data from four distinct vegetation types, near Hobart Tasmania, to address the proposition that vegetation type, vascular plant taxon composition, and environmental variables can act as surrogates for mosses and macrofungi in reservation planning. The four vegetation types proved distinct in their taxon composition for all macrofungi, mosses, and vascular plants. We tested the strength of the relationships between the composition of cryptogam taxonomic groups and vascular plant composition and between the environmental variables and canopy cover. Taxon composition of woody vascular plants and vascular plants was the best predictor of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. Combinations of environmental variables and canopy cover were also strong predictors of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. We used an optimization routine for vascular plant taxa and woody plant species and determined the representation of cryptogam taxa in these selections. We identified sites with approximately 10% and 30% of the greatest proportions of vascular plants and woody vascular plants and calculated representation of mosses and macrofungi at these sites. We compared the results of these site selections with random site selections and random selections stratified by vegetation type. Random selection of sites by vegetation type generally captured more cryptogams than site selection by vascular plants at the 10% level. Vascular plant and woody plant taxon composition, vegetation type, and environmental and structural characteristics, all showed promise as surrogates for capturing common cryptogams in reserve systems.

  15. Surrogate formulations for thermal treatment of low-level mixed waste. Part 1: Radiological surrogates

    SciTech Connect

    Stockdale, J.A.D.; Bostick, W.D.; Hoffmann, D.P.; Lee, H.T.

    1994-01-01

    The evaluation and comparison of proposed thermal treatment systems for mixed wastes can be expedited by tests in which the radioactive components of the wastes are replaced by surrogate materials chosen to mimic, as far as is possible, the chemical and physical properties of the radioactive materials of concern. In this work, sponsored by the Mixed Waste Integrated Project of the US Department of Energy, the authors have examined reported experience with such surrogates and suggest a simplified standard list of materials for use in tests of thermal treatment systems. The chief radioactive nuclides of concern in the treatment of mixed wastes are {sup 239}Pu, {sup 238}U, {sup 235}U, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 103}Ru, {sup 99}Tc, and {sup 90}Sr. These nuclides are largely by-products of uranium enrichment, reactor fuel reprocessing, and weapons program activities. Cs, Ru, and Sr all have stable isotopes that can be used as perfect surrogates for the radioactive forms. Technetium exists only in radioactive form, as do plutonium and uranium. If one wishes to preclude radioactive contamination of the thermal treatment system under trial burn, surrogate elements must be chosen for these three. For technetium, the authors suggest the use of natural ruthenium, and for both plutonium and uranium, they recommend cerium. The seven radionuclides listed can therefore be simulated by a surrogate package containing stable isotopes of ruthenium, strontium, cesium, and cerium.

  16. Methodology for Formulating Diesel Surrogate Fuels with Accurate Compositional, Ignition-Quality, and Volatility Characteristics

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, C. J.; Cannella, W. J.; Bruno, T. J.; Bunting, B.; Dettman, H. D.; Franz, J. A.; Huber, M. L.; Natarajan, M.; Pitz, W. J.; Ratcliff, M. A.; Wright, K.

    2012-06-21

    In this study, a novel approach was developed to formulate surrogate fuels having characteristics that are representative of diesel fuels produced from real-world refinery streams. Because diesel fuels typically consist of hundreds of compounds, it is difficult to conclusively determine the effects of fuel composition on combustion properties. Surrogate fuels, being simpler representations of these practical fuels, are of interest because they can provide a better understanding of fundamental fuel-composition and property effects on combustion and emissions-formation processes in internal-combustion engines. In addition, the application of surrogate fuels in numerical simulations with accurate vaporization, mixing, and combustion models could revolutionize future engine designs by enabling computational optimization for evolving real fuels. Dependable computational design would not only improve engine function, it would do so at significant cost savings relative to current optimization strategies that rely on physical testing of hardware prototypes. The approach in this study utilized the state-of-the-art techniques of {sup 13}C and {sup 1}H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and the advanced distillation curve to characterize fuel composition and volatility, respectively. The ignition quality was quantified by the derived cetane number. Two well-characterized, ultra-low-sulfur No.2 diesel reference fuels produced from refinery streams were used as target fuels: a 2007 emissions certification fuel and a Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE) diesel fuel. A surrogate was created for each target fuel by blending eight pure compounds. The known carbon bond types within the pure compounds, as well as models for the ignition qualities and volatilities of their mixtures, were used in a multiproperty regression algorithm to determine optimal surrogate formulations. The predicted and measured surrogate-fuel properties were

  17. Markers predicting progression of human immunodeficiency virus-related disease.

    PubMed Central

    Tsoukas, C M; Bernard, N F

    1994-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interacts with the immune system throughout the course of infection. For most of the disease process, HIV activates the immune system, and the degree of activation can be assessed by measuring serum levels of molecules such as beta 2-microglobulin and neopterin, as well as other serum and cell surface phenotype markers. The levels of some of these markers correlate with clinical progression of HIV disease, and these markers may be useful as surrogate markers for development of clinical AIDS. Because the likelihood and timing of development of clinical AIDS following seroconversion, for any particular individual, are not readily predictable, the use of nonclinical disease markers has become critically important to patient management. Surrogate markers of HIV infection are, by definition, measurable traits that correlate with disease progression. An ideal marker should identify patients at highest risk of disease progression, provide information on how long an individual has been infected, help in staging HIV disease, predict development of opportunistic infections associated with AIDS, monitor the therapeutic efficacy of immunomodulating or antiviral treatments, and the easily quantifiable, reliable, clinically available, and affordable. This review examines the current state of knowledge and the role of surrogate markers in the natural history and treatment of HIV infection. The clinical usefulness of each marker is assessed with respect to the criteria outlined for the ideal surrogate marker for HIV disease progression. PMID:8118788

  18. The Effectiveness of Predict-Observe-Explain Tasks in Diagnosing Students' Understanding of Science and in Identifying Their Levels of Achievement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liew, Chong-Wah; Treagust, David F.

    This study involves action research to explore the effectiveness of the Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) technique in diagnosing students' understanding of science and identifying their levels of achievement. A multidimensional interpretive framework is used to interpret students' understanding of science. The research methodology incorporated…

  19. Identifying Dyslexia in Adults: An Iterative Method Using the Predictive Value of Item Scores and Self-Report Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tamboer, Peter; Vorst, Harrie C. M.; Oort, Frans J.

    2014-01-01

    Methods for identifying dyslexia in adults vary widely between studies. Researchers have to decide how many tests to use, which tests are considered to be the most reliable, and how to determine cut-off scores. The aim of this study was to develop an objective and powerful method for diagnosing dyslexia. We took various methodological measures,…

  20. Identifying preoperative language tracts and predicting postoperative functional recovery using HARDI q-ball fiber tractography in patients with gliomas.

    PubMed

    Caverzasi, Eduardo; Hervey-Jumper, Shawn L; Jordan, Kesshi M; Lobach, Iryna V; Li, Jing; Panara, Valentina; Racine, Caroline A; Sankaranarayanan, Vanitha; Amirbekian, Bagrat; Papinutto, Nico; Berger, Mitchel S; Henry, Roland G

    2016-07-01

    OBJECT Diffusion MRI has uniquely enabled in vivo delineation of white matter tracts, which has been applied to the segmentation of eloquent pathways for intraoperative mapping. The last decade has also seen the development from earlier diffusion tensor models to higher-order models, which take advantage of high angular resolution diffusion-weighted imaging (HARDI) techniques. However, these advanced methods have not been widely implemented for routine preoperative and intraoperative mapping. The authors report on the application of residual bootstrap q-ball fiber tracking for routine mapping of potentially functional language pathways, the development of a system for rating tract injury to evaluate the impact on clinically assessed language function, and initial results predicting long-term language deficits following glioma resection. METHODS The authors have developed methods for the segmentation of 8 putative language pathways including dorsal phonological pathways and ventral semantic streams using residual bootstrap q-ball fiber tracking. Furthermore, they have implemented clinically feasible preoperative acquisition and processing of HARDI data to delineate these pathways for neurosurgical application. They have also developed a rating scale based on the altered fiber tract density to estimate the degree of pathway injury, applying these ratings to a subset of 35 patients with pre- and postoperative fiber tracking. The relationships between specific pathways and clinical language deficits were assessed to determine which pathways are predictive of long-term language deficits following surgery. RESULTS This tracking methodology has been routinely implemented for preoperative mapping in patients with brain gliomas who have undergone awake brain tumor resection at the University of California, San Francisco (more than 300 patients to date). In this particular study the authors investigated the white matter structure status and language correlation in a

  1. Identifying Risk for Self-Harm: Rumination and Negative Affectivity in the Prospective Prediction of Nonsuicidal Self-Injury.

    PubMed

    Nicolai, Katey Anne; Wielgus, Madeline D; Mezulis, Amy

    2016-04-01

    Research suggests nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) may function as a maladaptive strategy to regulate negative emotions, and individuals high in trait negative affectivity (NA) may be particularly at risk. Rumination, a cognitive emotion regulation strategy, may amplify negative affect, increasing the likelihood of NSSI. The current study found that high NA and high rumination interacted to predict both likelihood of engagement in NSSI and frequency of NSSI. This study provides support for the joint contribution of cognitive and temperamental factors impacting the relationship between NA and NSSI and suggests that interventions targeted at maladaptive emotion regulation strategies may help inform individualized treatment.

  2. Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallow-water model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Guang'an; Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu

    2016-09-01

    Sensitive areas for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a 1.5-layer, shallow-water ocean model were investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and first singular vector (FSV) methods. A series of sensitivity experiments were designed to test the sensitivity of sensitive areas within the numerical model. The following results were obtained: (1) the eff ect of initial CNOP and FSV patterns in their sensitive areas is greater than that of the same patterns in randomly selected areas, with the eff ect of the initial CNOP patterns in CNOP sensitive areas being the greatest; (2) both CNOP- and FSV-type initial errors grow more quickly than random errors; (3) the eff ect of random errors superimposed on the sensitive areas is greater than that of random errors introduced into randomly selected areas, and initial errors in the CNOP sensitive areas have greater eff ects on final forecasts. These results reveal that the sensitive areas determined using the CNOP are more sensitive than those of FSV and other randomly selected areas. In addition, ideal hindcasting experiments were conducted to examine the validity of the sensitive areas. The results indicate that reduction (or elimination) of CNOP-type errors in CNOP sensitive areas at the initial time has a greater forecast benefit than the reduction (or elimination) of FSV-type errors in FSV sensitive areas. These results suggest that the CNOP method is suitable for determining sensitive areas in the prediction of the Kuroshio large-meander path.

  3. A predicted T4 secretion system and conserved DNA-repeats identified in a subset of related Arthrobacter plasmids.

    PubMed

    Mihăşan, Marius; Brandsch, Roderich

    2016-10-01

    BLAST analysis of pAO1 ORFs of Arthrobacter nicotinovorans revealed 12 ORFs, including the ORF of a transcriptional regulator, predicted to encode the components of a T4-secretion system involved in bacterial conjugation. These ORFs were conserved and showed synteny among 14 Arthrobacter plasmids. A DNA repeat of about 370 nucleotides was found to be present 5' to the pAO1 ORFs of DUF4192-, DprA- and ParB-like proteins. Similar repeats were present in identical positions on 12 additional Arthrobacter plasmids. The DNA repeats on a particular plasmid are highly identical duplications. The DNA repeats contain alternating GC and AT reach sequences, potential protein DNA-binding sites and purine reach stretches. The sequences end with 5'ATG.AAC3' which results in the amino terminal sequence methionine (M) and asparagine (N) for all predicted DprA, DUF4192 and ParB proteins. The presences of conserved ORFs of a T4-secretion system and of similar DNA repeats suggest that these Arthrobacter plasmids are related and evolved from a common ancestor. The functional significance of the DNA repeats in a coordinated common mechanism of regulation of expression of the dprA-(involved in natural competence), parB- (involved in plasmid partitioning) and duf4192- (unknown function in plasmid life cycle) genes remains to be established. PMID:27524651

  4. Surrogate Markers of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Progression.

    PubMed

    Wanhainen, Anders; Mani, Kevin; Golledge, Jonathan

    2016-02-01

    The natural course of many abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is to gradually expand and eventually rupture and monitoring the disease progression is essential to their management. In this publication, we review surrogate markers of AAA progression. AAA diameter remains the most widely used and important marker of AAA growth. Standardized reporting of reproducible methods of measuring AAA diameter is essential. Newer imaging assessments, such as volume measurements, biomechanical analyses, and functional and molecular imaging, as well as circulating biomarkers, have potential to add important information about AAA progression. Currently, however, there is insufficient evidence to recommend their routine use in clinical practice. PMID:26715680

  5. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-04-15

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using Random Forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers was 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR Toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the Scorecard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin sensitization dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin sensitization. • Developed models have higher prediction accuracy than OECD QSAR Toolbox. • Putative

  6. UQ -- Fast Surrogates Key to New Methodologies in an Operational and Research Volcanic Hazard Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, C. G.; Stefanescu, R. E. R.; Patra, A. K.; Bursik, M. I.; Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Jones, M.; Singla, P.; Singh, T.; Pitman, E. B.; Morton, D.; Webley, P.

    2014-12-01

    As the decision to construct a hazard map is frequently precipitated by the sudden initiation of activity at a volcano that was previously considered dormant, timely completion of the map is imperative. This prohibits the calculation of probabilities through direct sampling of a numerical ash-transport and dispersion model. In developing a probabilistic forecast for ash cloud locations following an explosive volcanic eruption, we construct a number of possible meta-models (a model of the simulator) to act as fast surrogates for the time-expensive model. We will illustrate the new fast surrogates based on both polynomial chaos and multilevel sparse representations that have allowed us to conduct the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in a timely fashion. These surrogates allow orders of magnitude improvement in cost associated with UQ, and are likely to have a major impact in many related domains.This work will be part of an operational and research volcanic forecasting system (see the Webley et al companion presentation) moving towards using ensembles of eruption source parameters and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs), rather than single deterministic forecasts, to drive the ash cloud forecasting systems. This involves using an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) as input to an ash transport and dispersion model, such as PUFF, to produce ash cloud predictions, which will be supported by a Decision Support System. Simulation ensembles with different input volcanic source parameters are intelligently chosen to predict the average and higher-order moments of the output correctly.

  7. Identifying structural elements needed for development of a predictive life-history model for pallid and shovelnose sturgeons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.; Galat, D.L.; Jacobson, R.B.; Simpkins, D.G.; Braaten, P.J.; Korschgen, C.E.; Mac, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Intensive management of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has resulted in dramatic changes to the river systems and their biota. These changes have been implicated in the decline of the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), which has been listed as a United States federal endangered species. The sympatric shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) is more common and widespread but has also been in decline. The decline of pallid sturgeon is considered symptomatic of poor reproductive success and low or no recruitment. In order to organize information about these species and provide a basis for future development of a predictive model to help guide recovery efforts, we present an expert-vetted, conceptual life-history framework that incorporates the factors that affect reproduction, growth, and survival of shovelnose and pallid sturgeons.

  8. Correlation of lung tumor motion with external surrogate indicators of respiration

    SciTech Connect

    Hoisak, Jeremy D.P.; Sixel, Katharina E. . E-mail: Katharina.Sixel@sw.ca; Tirona, Romeo; Cheung, Patrick; Pignol, Jean-Philippe

    2004-11-15

    Purpose: To assess the correlation of respiratory volume and abdominal displacement with tumor motion as seen with X-ray fluoroscopy. Measurements throughout the patient's treatment course allowed an assessment of the interfractional reproducibility of this correlation. Methods and materials: Data were acquired from 11 patients; 5 were studied over multiple days. Measurements of respiratory volume by spirometry and abdominal displacement by a real-time position tracking system were correlated to simultaneously acquired X-ray fluoroscopy measurements of superior-inferior tumor displacement. The linear correlation coefficient was computed for each data acquisition. The phase relationship between the surrogate and tumor signals was estimated through cross-correlation delay analysis. Results: Correlation coefficients ranged from very high to very low (0.99-0.39, p < 0.0001). The correlation between tumor displacement and respiratory volume was higher and more reproducible from day to day than between tumor displacement and abdominal displacement. A nonzero phase relationship was observed in nearly all patients (-0.65 to +0.50 s). This relationship was observed to vary over inter- and intrafractional time scales. Only 1 of 5 patients studied over multiple days had a consistent relationship between tumor motion and either surrogate. Conclusions: Respiratory volume has a more reproducible correlation with tumor motion than does abdominal displacement. If forming a tumor-surrogate prediction model from a limited series of observations, the use of surrogates to guide treatment might result in geographic miss.

  9. Differences in surrogate threshold effect estimates between original and simplified correlation-based validation approaches.

    PubMed

    Schürmann, Christoph; Sieben, Wiebke

    2016-03-30

    Surrogate endpoint validation has been well established by the meta-analytical correlation-based approach as outlined in the seminal work of Buyse et al. (Biostatistics, 2000). Surrogacy can be assumed if strong associations on individual and study levels can be demonstrated. Alternatively, if an effect on a true endpoint is to be predicted from a surrogate endpoint in a new study, the surrogate threshold effect (STE, Burzykowski and Buyse, Pharmaceutical Statistics, 2006) can be used. In practice, as individual patient data (IPD) are hard to obtain, some authors use only aggregate data and perform simplified regression analyses. We are interested in to what extent such simplified analyses are biased compared with the ones from a full model with IPD. To this end, we conduct a simulation study with IPD and compute STEs from full and simplified analyses for varying data situations in terms of number of studies, correlations, variances and so on. In the scenarios considered, we show that, for normally distributed patient data, STEs derived from ordinary (weighted) linear regression generally underestimate STEs derived from the original model, whereas meta-regression often results in overestimation. Therefore, if individual data cannot be obtained, STEs from meta-regression may be used as conservative alternatives, but ordinary (weighted) linear regression should not be used for surrogate endpoint validation. PMID:26522510

  10. DNA Methylation as Surrogate Marker For Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Jung-Hwan; Jung, Sung-Hoon; Hong, Seung-Jin; Rhyu, Mun-Gan

    2015-01-01

    Stomach cancer remains, stubbornly, highly prevalent in East Asia. Still, stomach cancer has few biomarkers by which it can be predicted. Helicobacter pylori infection, a known carcinogen of stomach cancer, usually goes undetected prior to cancer diagnosis, due to the poor mucosal environments that its related gastric atrophy causes. We propose, herein, an endoscopic-biopsy-based cancer-predicting DNA methylation marker. We semi-quantitatively examined the methylation-variable sites near the CpG-island margins by radioisotope-labeling methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction in association with H. pylori, which increases age-related over-methylation in CpG islands of gastric mucosa. These age-related methylation patterns of the transitional-CpG sites are proposed as useful surrogate markers for stomach cancer. It would be helpful for setting the optimal screening interval for high-risk subjects as well as for estimating the prognosis and the predictability for recurrence of early gastric cancer in patients having undergone endoscopic submucosal dissection. New screening-interval guidelines for gastric cancer should be suggested considering individual risk based on age, severity of atrophy, H. pylori status, and DNA methylation pattern. PMID:26473155

  11. Surrogate Motherhood and Abortion for Fetal Abnormality.

    PubMed

    Walker, Ruth; van Zyl, Liezl

    2015-10-01

    A diagnosis of fetal abnormality presents parents with a difficult - even tragic - moral dilemma. Where this diagnosis is made in the context of surrogate motherhood there is an added difficulty, namely that it is not obvious who should be involved in making decisions about abortion, for the person who would normally have the right to decide - the pregnant woman - does not intend to raise the child. This raises the question: To what extent, if at all, should the intended parents be involved in decision-making? In commercial surrogacy it is thought that as part of the contractual agreement the intended parents acquire the right to make this decision. By contrast, in altruistic surrogacy the pregnant woman retains the right to make these decisions, but the intended parents are free to decide not to adopt the child. We argue that both these strategies are morally unsound, and that the problems encountered serve to highlight more fundamental defects within the commercial and altruistic models, as well as in the legal and institutional frameworks that support them. We argue in favour of the professional model, which acknowledges the rights and responsibilities of both parties and provides a legal and institutional framework that supports good decision-making. In particular, the professional model acknowledges the surrogate's right to decide whether to undergo an abortion, and the intended parents' obligation to accept legal custody of the child. While not solving all the problems that arise in surrogacy, the model provides a framework that supports good decision-making. PMID:25688455

  12. Surrogate Motherhood and Abortion for Fetal Abnormality.

    PubMed

    Walker, Ruth; van Zyl, Liezl

    2015-10-01

    A diagnosis of fetal abnormality presents parents with a difficult - even tragic - moral dilemma. Where this diagnosis is made in the context of surrogate motherhood there is an added difficulty, namely that it is not obvious who should be involved in making decisions about abortion, for the person who would normally have the right to decide - the pregnant woman - does not intend to raise the child. This raises the question: To what extent, if at all, should the intended parents be involved in decision-making? In commercial surrogacy it is thought that as part of the contractual agreement the intended parents acquire the right to make this decision. By contrast, in altruistic surrogacy the pregnant woman retains the right to make these decisions, but the intended parents are free to decide not to adopt the child. We argue that both these strategies are morally unsound, and that the problems encountered serve to highlight more fundamental defects within the commercial and altruistic models, as well as in the legal and institutional frameworks that support them. We argue in favour of the professional model, which acknowledges the rights and responsibilities of both parties and provides a legal and institutional framework that supports good decision-making. In particular, the professional model acknowledges the surrogate's right to decide whether to undergo an abortion, and the intended parents' obligation to accept legal custody of the child. While not solving all the problems that arise in surrogacy, the model provides a framework that supports good decision-making.

  13. Fluorescent protein-marked Escherichia coli biotype I strains as surrogates for enteric pathogens in validation of beef carcass interventions.

    PubMed

    Cabrera-Diaz, Elisa; Moseley, Tiffany M; Lucia, Lisa M; Dickson, James S; Castillo, Alejandro; Acuff, Gary R

    2009-02-01

    The efficacy of antimicrobial interventions implemented in slaughter establishments to reduce enteric pathogens on beef carcasses should optimally be validated under commercial operation conditions. This study was conducted to identify surrogate organisms for enteric pathogens that could be used to validate beef carcass interventions. The growth, resistance, and attachment properties of nonpathogenic fluorescent protein-marked Escherichia coli strains were compared with those of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella strains. Growth curves were obtained based on growth in tryptic soy broth at 37 degrees C. In general, growth parameters were not different among potential surrogates and target pathogens (P > 0.05). Thermal resistance was compared in phosphate-buffered saline (pH 7.4) at 55, 60, and 65 degrees C, and D-values of potential surrogates were not different (P > 0.05) or were higher (P < 0.05) than those of the target pathogens. Acid resistance was tested in phosphate-buffered saline acidified with L-lactic acid at pH 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5, and log reductions (CFU per milliliter) were not different (P > 0.05) among potential surrogates and E. coli O157:H7 strains; however, some Salmonella serotypes were less acid resistant than were surrogates (P < 0.05). The cell surface hydrophobicity was different (P < 0.05) among surrogates and some E. coli O157:H7 strains, but the strength of attachment to beef carcasses was not different (P > 0.05) among all microorganisms. Log reductions (CFU per square centimeter) after application of hot water washes and 2% L-lactic acid sprays on beef carcasses were not different (P > 0.05) among surrogates and pathogens. The nonpathogenic E. coli strains evaluated in this study could be used as surrogates for E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella to validate hot water and lactic acid interventions on beef carcasses.

  14. Indoor sorption of surrogates for sarin and related nerve agents.

    PubMed

    Singer, Brett C; Hodgson, Alfred T; Destaillats, Hugo; Hotchi, Toshifumi; Revzan, Kenneth L; Sextro, Richard G

    2005-05-01

    Sorption rate parameters were determined for three organophosphorus (OP) compounds [dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP), diethyl ethylphosphonate (DEEP), and triethyl phosphate (TEP)] as surrogates for the G-type nerve agents sarin (GB), soman (GD), and tabun (GA). OP surrogates were injected and vaporized with additional volatile organic compounds into a 50 m3 chamber finished with painted wallboard. Experiments were conducted at two furnishing levels: (i) chamber containing only hard surfaces including a desk, a bookcase, tables, and chairs and (ii) with the addition of plush materials including carpet with cushion, draperies, and upholstered furniture. Each furnishing level was studied with aged and new painted wallboard. Gas-phase concentrations were measured during sealed chamber adsorb and desorb phases and then fit to three mathematical variations of a previously proposed sorption model having a surface sink and allowing for an embedded sink. A four-parameter model allowing unequal transport rates between surface and embedded sinks provided excellent fits for all conditions. To evaluate the potential effect of sorption, this model was incorporated into an indoor air quality simulation model to predict indoor concentrations of a G-type agent and a nonsorbing agent for hypothetical outdoor releases with shelter-in-place (SIP) response. Sorption was simulated using a range of parameters obtained experimentally. Simulations considered outdoor Gaussian plumes of 1- and 5-h duration and infiltration rates of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.9 h(-1). Indoor toxic loads (TL) for a 10-h SIP were calculated as integral C2 dt for a G-type agent. For the 5-h plume, sheltering reduced TLs for the nonsorbing agent to approximately 10-65% of outdoor levels. Analogous TLs for a G-type agent were 2-31% or 0.3-12% of outdoor levels assuming slow or moderate sorption. The relative effect of sorption was more pronounced for the longer plume and higher infiltration rates.

  15. Prediction of magnetic orientation in driver gas associated -Bz events. [in interplanetary medium observed at earth when solar source is identified

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoeksema, J. T.; Zhao, Xuepu

    1992-01-01

    The source regions of five strong -Bz events detected at 1 AU for which solar sources were identified by Tang et al. (1989) and Tsurutani et al. (1992) are investigated in order to determine whether the magnetic orientation of driver gas in the interplanetary medium observed at the earth can be predicted when its solar source is identified. Three -Bz events were traced to flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs), one to an eruptive prominence associated CME, and one to three possible solar sources. The computed magnetic orientations at the candidate 'release height' (the height where the front of a CME ceases to accelerate) above the flare sites associated with CMEs show the existence of the expected southward field component. It is concluded that the magnetic orientation in flare-associated CME generated driver gas may be predictable.

  16. A Predictive Coexpression Network Identifies Novel Genes Controlling the Seed-to-Seedling Phase Transition in Arabidopsis thaliana1[OPEN

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Anderson Tadeu; Ribone, Pamela A.

    2016-01-01

    The transition from a quiescent dry seed to an actively growing photoautotrophic seedling is a complex and crucial trait for plant propagation. This study provides a detailed description of global gene expression in seven successive developmental stages of seedling establishment in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Using the transcriptome signature from these developmental stages, we obtained a coexpression gene network that highlights interactions between known regulators of the seed-to-seedling transition and predicts the functions of uncharacterized genes in seedling establishment. The coexpressed gene data sets together with the transcriptional module indicate biological functions related to seedling establishment. Characterization of the homeodomain leucine zipper I transcription factor AtHB13, which is expressed during the seed-to-seedling transition, demonstrated that this gene regulates some of the network nodes and affects late seedling establishment. Knockout mutants for athb13 showed increased primary root length as compared with wild-type (Columbia-0) seedlings, suggesting that this transcription factor is a negative regulator of early root growth, possibly repressing cell division and/or cell elongation or the length of time that cells elongate. The signal transduction pathways present during the early phases of the seed-to-seedling transition anticipate the control of important events for a vigorous seedling, such as root growth. This study demonstrates that a gene coexpression network together with transcriptional modules can provide insights that are not derived from comparative transcript profiling alone. PMID:26888061

  17. Dynamic role and importance of surrogate species for assessing potential adverse environmental impacts of genetically engineered insect-resistant plants on non-target organisms.

    PubMed

    Wach, Michael; Hellmich, Richard L; Layton, Raymond; Romeis, Jörg; Gadaleta, Patricia G

    2016-08-01

    Surrogate species have a long history of use in research and regulatory settings to understand the potentially harmful effects of toxic substances including pesticides. More recently, surrogate species have been used to evaluate the potential effects of proteins contained in genetically engineered insect resistant (GEIR) crops. Species commonly used in GEIR crop testing include beneficial organisms such as honeybees, arthropod predators, and parasitoids. The choice of appropriate surrogates is influenced by scientific factors such as the knowledge of the mode of action and the spectrum of activity as well as societal factors such as protection goals that assign value to certain ecosystem services such as pollination or pest control. The primary reasons for using surrogates include the inability to test all possible organisms, the restrictions on using certain organisms in testing (e.g., rare, threatened, or endangered species), and the ability to achieve greater sensitivity and statistical power by using laboratory testing of certain species. The acceptance of surrogate species data can allow results from one region to be applied or "transported" for use in another region. On the basis of over a decade of using surrogate species to evaluate potential effects of GEIR crops, it appears that the current surrogates have worked well to predict effects of GEIR crops that have been developed (Carstens et al. GM Crops Food 5:1-5, 2014), and it is expected that they should work well to predict effects of future GEIR crops based on similar technologies. PMID:26922585

  18. Dynamic role and importance of surrogate species for assessing potential adverse environmental impacts of genetically engineered insect-resistant plants on non-target organisms.

    PubMed

    Wach, Michael; Hellmich, Richard L; Layton, Raymond; Romeis, Jörg; Gadaleta, Patricia G

    2016-08-01

    Surrogate species have a long history of use in research and regulatory settings to understand the potentially harmful effects of toxic substances including pesticides. More recently, surrogate species have been used to evaluate the potential effects of proteins contained in genetically engineered insect resistant (GEIR) crops. Species commonly used in GEIR crop testing include beneficial organisms such as honeybees, arthropod predators, and parasitoids. The choice of appropriate surrogates is influenced by scientific factors such as the knowledge of the mode of action and the spectrum of activity as well as societal factors such as protection goals that assign value to certain ecosystem services such as pollination or pest control. The primary reasons for using surrogates include the inability to test all possible organisms, the restrictions on using certain organisms in testing (e.g., rare, threatened, or endangered species), and the ability to achieve greater sensitivity and statistical power by using laboratory testing of certain species. The acceptance of surrogate species data can allow results from one region to be applied or "transported" for use in another region. On the basis of over a decade of using surrogate species to evaluate potential effects of GEIR crops, it appears that the current surrogates have worked well to predict effects of GEIR crops that have been developed (Carstens et al. GM Crops Food 5:1-5, 2014), and it is expected that they should work well to predict effects of future GEIR crops based on similar technologies.

  19. Effect prediction of identified SNPs linked to fruit quality and chilling injury in peach [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch].

    PubMed

    Martínez-García, Pedro J; Fresnedo-Ramírez, Jonathan; Parfitt, Dan E; Gradziel, Thomas M; Crisosto, Carlos H

    2013-01-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are a fundamental source of genomic variation. Large SNP panels have been developed for Prunus species. Fruit quality traits are essential peach breeding program objectives since they determine consumer acceptance, fruit consumption, industry trends and cultivar adoption. For many cultivars, these traits are negatively impacted by cold storage, used to extend fruit market life. The major symptoms of chilling injury are lack of flavor, off flavor, mealiness, flesh browning, and flesh bleeding. A set of 1,109 SNPs was mapped previously and 67 were linked with these complex traits. The prediction of the effects associated with these SNPs on downstream products from the 'peach v1.0' genome sequence was carried out. A total of 2,163 effects were detected, 282 effects (non-synonymous, synonymous or stop codon gained) were located in exonic regions (13.04 %) and 294 placed in intronic regions (13.59 %). An extended list of genes and proteins that could be related to these traits was developed. Two SNP markers that explain a high percentage of the observed phenotypic variance, UCD_SNP_1084 and UCD_SNP_46, are associated with zinc finger (C3HC4-type RING finger) family protein and AOX1A (alternative oxidase 1a) protein groups, respectively. In addition, phenotypic variation suggests that the observed polymorphism for SNP UCD_SNP_1084 [A/G] mutation could be a candidate quantitative trait nucleotide affecting quantitative trait loci for mealiness. The interaction and expression of affected proteins could explain the variation observed in each individual and facilitate understanding of gene regulatory networks for fruit quality traits in peach.

  20. Modeling Efforts to Aid in the Prediction of Process Enrichment Levels with the Intent of Identifying Potential Material Diversion

    SciTech Connect

    Guenther, C F; Elayat, H A; O?Connell, W J; Lambert, H E

    2007-05-31

    As part of an ongoing effort at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to enhance analytical models that simulate enrichment and conversion facilities, efforts are underway to develop routines to estimate the total gamma-ray flux and that of specific lines around process piping containing UF{sub 6}. The intent of the simulation modeling effort is to aid in the identification of possible areas where material diversion could occur, as input to an overall safeguards strategy. The operation of an enrichment facility for the production of low enriched uranium (LEU) presents certain proliferation concerns, including both the possibility of diversion of LEU and the potential for producing material enriched to higher-than-declared, weapons-usable levels. Safeguards applied by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are designed to provide assurance against diversion or misuse. Among the measures being considered for use is the measurement of radiation fields at various locations in the cascade hall. Our prior efforts in this area have focused on developing a model to predict neutron fields and how they would change during diversion of misuse. The neutron models indicated that while neutron detection useful in monitoring feed and product containers, it was not useful for monitoring process lines. Our current effort is aimed at developing algorithms that provide estimates of the gamma radiation field outside any process line for the purpose of determining the most effective locations for placing in-plant gamma-monitoring equipment. These algorithms could also be modified to provide both dose and spectral information and, ultimately, detector responses that could be physically measured at various points on the process line. Such information could be used to optimize detector locations in support of real-time on-site monitoring to determine the enrichment levels within a process stream. The results of parametric analyses to establish expected variations for

  1. Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A. ); Eubank, S.; Farmer, J.D. Santa Fe Inst., NM )

    1991-01-01

    We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against the null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.

  2. Use of aerobic spores as a surrogate for cryptosporidium oocysts in drinking water supplies.

    PubMed

    Headd, Brendan; Bradford, Scott A

    2016-03-01

    Waterborne illnesses are a growing concern among health and regulatory agencies worldwide. The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established several rules to combat the contamination of water supplies by cryptosporidium oocysts, however, the detection and study of cryptosporidium oocysts is hampered by methodological and financial constraints. As a result, numerous surrogates for cryptosporidium oocysts have been proposed by the scientific community and efforts are underway to evaluate many of the proposed surrogates. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the suitability of aerobic bacterial spores to serve as a surrogate for cryptosporidium oocysts in identifying contaminated drinking waters. To accomplish this we present a comparison of the biology and life cycles of aerobic spores and oocysts and compare their physical properties. An analysis of their surface properties is presented along with a review of the literature in regards to the transport, survival, and prevalence of aerobic spores and oocysts in the saturated subsurface environment. Aerobic spores and oocysts share many commonalities with regard to biology and survivability, and the environmental prevalence and ease of detection make aerobic spores a promising surrogate for cryptosporidium oocysts in surface and groundwater. However, the long-term transport and release of aerobic spores still needs to be further studied, and compared with available oocyst information. In addition, the surface properties and environmental interactions of spores are known to be highly dependent on the spore taxa and purification procedures, and additional research is needed to address these issues in the context of transport.

  3. Identifying factors predicting iron deficiency in United States adolescent females using the ferritin and the body iron models

    PubMed Central

    Sekhar, Deepa L.; Murray-Kolb, Laura E.; Kunselman, Allen R.; Paul, Ian M.

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims Iron deficiency is the most prevalent nutritional deficiency in the United States affecting 9–16% of female adolescents. With the primary purpose of detecting iron deficiency, primary care screening consists of a hemoglobin or hematocrit laboratory test. This method is simple and inexpensive, but tests for anemia, and is neither sensitive nor specific for iron deficiency. Alternate methods for diagnosing iron deficiency using the ferritin and body iron models are not widely utilized. The study objective was to compare iron deficiency risk factors among adolescent females defined by the ferritin and body iron models to better characterize those who may benefit from iron deficiency testing as opposed to the current anemia-based screen. Methods This cross-sectional study of female adolescents aged 12–21 years utilized National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2006 data. Anemia was defined by standard hemoglobin cutoffs. The ferritin model defines iron deficiency through transferrin saturation, ferritin and erythrocyte protoporphyrin laboratory testing. Body iron calculates iron status with a formula involving transferrin receptor and ferritin. Bivariate and multivariable analyses examined associations between questionnaire responses and iron deficiency defined by each model. Results Among 1765 participants, 2.7% were anemic. Iron deficiency prevalence was 13.1% and 9.1% by the ferritin and body iron models, respectively. Based on the model, anemia-based screening had a sensitivity of 15.6–18.8% for iron deficiency. Multivariable associations for ferritin model iron deficiency included age, race/ethnicity, activity level and medroxyprogresterone acetate injection. Age and food insecurity were significant using the body iron model. Conclusions Universal anemia-based screening misses the majority of iron-deficient adolescent females. The common risk factor identified here, adolescent age, may both inform preventive care guidelines on

  4. Annual sediment flux estimates in a tidal strait using surrogate measurements

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

    2006-01-01

    Annual suspended-sediment flux estimates through Carquinez Strait (the seaward boundary of Suisun Bay, California) are provided based on surrogate measurements for advective, dispersive, and Stokes drift flux. The surrogates are landward watershed discharge, suspended-sediment concentration at one location in the Strait, and the longitudinal salinity gradient. The first two surrogates substitute for tidally averaged discharge and velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in the Strait, thereby providing advective flux estimates, while Stokes drift is estimated with suspended-sediment concentration alone. Dispersive flux is estimated using the product of longitudinal salinity gradient and the root-mean-square value of velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration as an added surrogate variable. Cross-sectional measurements validated the use of surrogates during the monitoring period. During high freshwater flow advective and dispersive flux were in the seaward direction, while landward dispersive flux dominated and advective flux approached zero during low freshwater flow. Stokes drift flux was consistently in the landward direction. Wetter than average years led to net export from Suisun Bay, while dry years led to net sediment import. Relatively low watershed sediment fluxes to Suisun Bay contribute to net export during the wet season, while gravitational circulation in Carquinez Strait and higher suspended-sediment concentrations in San Pablo Bay (seaward end of Carquinez Strait) are responsible for the net import of sediment during the dry season. Annual predictions of suspended-sediment fluxes, using these methods, will allow for a sediment budget for Suisun Bay, which has implications for marsh restoration and nutrient/contaminant transport. These methods also provide a general framework for estimating sediment fluxes in estuarine environments, where temporal and spatial variability of transport are large. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  5. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    PubMed Central

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using random forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers were 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the ScoreCard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. PMID:25560674

  6. INTEC SBW Solid Sludge Surrogate Recipe and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Maio, Vince; Janikowski, Stuart; Johnson, Jim; Maio, Vince; Pao, Jenn-Hai

    2004-06-01

    A nonhazardous INTEC tank farm sludge surrogate that incorporated metathesis reactions to generate solids from solutions of known elements present in the radioactive INTEC tank farm sodium-bearing waste sludges was formulated. Elemental analyses, physical property analyses, and filtration testing were performed on waste surrogate and tank farm waste samples, and the results were compared. For testing physical systems associated with moving the tank farm solids, the surrogate described in this report is the best currently available choice. No other available surrogate exhibits the noted similarities in behavior to the sludges. The chemical morphology, particle size distribution, and settling and flow characteristics of the surrogate were similar to those exhibited by the waste sludges. Nonetheless, there is a difference in chemical makeup of the surrogate and the tank farm waste. If a chemical treatment process were to be evaluated for final treatment and disposition of the waste sludges, the surrogate synthesis process would likely require modification to yield a surrogate with a closer matching chemical composition.

  7. TOXICITY OF PENTACHLOROPHENOL TO ENDANGERED AND SURROGATE FISH SPECIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality criteria (WQC) generally are based on the responses of easily cultured and tested surrogate species. Little is known about the relative sensitivity of surrogate and endangered species. The objective of this study was to compare acute and chronic (early life-stage) ...

  8. Inactivation of Tulane virus, a novel surrogate for human norovirus

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the major cause of non-bacterial epidemics of gastroenteritis. Due to the inability to cultivate HuNoVs and the lack of an efficient small animal model, surrogates are used to study HuNoV biology. Two such surrogates, the feline calicivirus (FCV) and the murine norovir...

  9. Surrogate embryo transfer: the perils of patenting.

    PubMed

    Annas, G J

    1984-06-01

    Surrogate embryo transfer (SET) is a new procedure, developed by a research team led by Dr. John Buster of the Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, that involves recovery by uterine lavage of an embryo from a donor woman for transfer to the sperm donor's wife. With the concurrence of Dr. Buster, Fertility and Genetics Research, Inc., the company that funded the research, has applied for patents on both the instruments used and the SET process itself. Annas discusses the ethical and legal issues raised by applying the concept of process patenting to a reproductive technology, and contends that such patents should be rejected unless the medical profession and the public can be assured that effective quality controls will be utilized and that reproductive privacy will not be compromised.

  10. Surrogate Motherhood: A Trust-Based Approach.

    PubMed

    Beier, Katharina

    2015-12-01

    Because it is often argued that surrogacy should not be treated as contractual, the question arises in which terms this practice might then be couched. In this article, I argue that a phenomenology of surrogacy centering on the notion of trust provides a description that is illuminating from the moral point of view. My thesis is that surrogacy establishes a complex and extended reproductive unit--the "surrogacy triad" consisting of the surrogate mother, the child, and the intending parents--whose constituents are bound together by mutual trustful commitments. Even though a trust-based approach does not provide an ultimate answer to whether surrogacy should be sanctioned or prohibited, it allows for at least some practical suggestions. In particular, I will argue that, under certain conditions, surrogacy is tenable within familial or other significant relationships, and I will stress the necessity of acknowledging the new relationships and moral commitments that result from this practice.

  11. Intentional parenthood: responsibilities in surrogate motherhood.

    PubMed

    Van Zyl, Liezl

    2002-01-01

    In recent years, a number of writers dealing with questions over parenthood that arise in the context of reproductive technologies and surrogate motherhood, have appealed to the notion of "intentional parenthood". Basing their argument on liberal values such as individual autonomy, the freedom to enter contracts, the right to privacy, and individual self-fulfilment, they argue that contractually stated intentions, rather than genetic or gestational relationships, should form the basis of parental rights. Against this I argue that parental rights do not derive from contractual agreements, but are based in their obligations towards the child. I then examine the nature of the obligations that the various parties have towards the child both pre- and postnatally. PMID:12216743

  12. Evaluating surrogates for disinfection by-products

    SciTech Connect

    Najm, I.N.; Patania, N.L.; Jacangelo, J.G. ); Krasner, S.W. )

    1994-06-01

    Each of four low-bromide waters was coagulated at three pH values (5.5, 7.0, and 8.0), and then simulated distribution system (SDS) chlorination tests were performed. The object of the study was to determine whether total organic carbon (TOC) or UV-254 absorbance can be employed as an indicator of the trihalomethane (THM) and haloacetic acid (HAA) concentrations formed upon chlorination. Results showed that removal of TOC and UV-254 always increased with decreasing coagulation pH, but the extent of removal varied with the different waters. Maximum reduction of SDSTHM and SDSHAA5 formation was achieved after coagulation at pH 5.5. UV-254 proved to be a better surrogate for chlorinated by-product formation than TOC. The applicability of the correlations to waters with higher bromide levels and different chlorination pH values should be evaluated.

  13. Surrogate Motherhood: A Trust-Based Approach.

    PubMed

    Beier, Katharina

    2015-12-01

    Because it is often argued that surrogacy should not be treated as contractual, the question arises in which terms this practice might then be couched. In this article, I argue that a phenomenology of surrogacy centering on the notion of trust provides a description that is illuminating from the moral point of view. My thesis is that surrogacy establishes a complex and extended reproductive unit--the "surrogacy triad" consisting of the surrogate mother, the child, and the intending parents--whose constituents are bound together by mutual trustful commitments. Even though a trust-based approach does not provide an ultimate answer to whether surrogacy should be sanctioned or prohibited, it allows for at least some practical suggestions. In particular, I will argue that, under certain conditions, surrogacy is tenable within familial or other significant relationships, and I will stress the necessity of acknowledging the new relationships and moral commitments that result from this practice. PMID:26449234

  14. pRIFLE (Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End Stage Renal Disease) score identifies Acute Kidney Injury and predicts mortality in critically ill children : a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Soler, Yadira A.; Nieves-Plaza, Mariely; Prieto, Mónica; García-De Jesús, Ricardo; Suárez-Rivera, Marta

    2014-01-01

    Objectives 1) To determine whether pRIFLE (Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End Stage Renal Disease) criteria serves to characterize the pattern of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) in critically ill pediatric patients; and 2) to identify if pRIFLE score will predict morbidity and mortality in our patient´s cohort. Design Prospective Cohort. Setting Multidisciplinary, tertiary care, 10- bed PICU. Patients 266 patients admitted to PICU from November 2009 to November 2010. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results The incidence of AKI in the PICU was 27.4%, of which 83.5% presented within 72hrs of admission to the PICU. Patients with AKI were younger, weighed less, were more likely to be on in fluid overload ≥10%, and were more likely to be on inotropic support, diuretics or amino glycosides. No difference in gender, use of other nephrotoxins, or mechanical ventilation was observed. Fluid overload ≥10% was an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality. In multivariate analysis, AKI-Injury and Failure categories, as defined by pRIFLE, predicted mortality, hospital length of stay, and PICU length of stay. Conclusions In this cohort of critically ill pediatric patients, AKI identified by pRIFLE and fluid overload ≥ 10% predicted increased morbidity and mortality. Implementation of pRIFLE scoring and close monitoring of fluid overload upon admission may help develop early interventions to prevent and treat AKI in critically ill children. PMID:23439463

  15. Evaluating β Diversity as a Surrogate for Species Representation at Fine Scale

    PubMed Central

    Beier, Paul; Albuquerque, Fábio

    2016-01-01

    Species turnover or β diversity is a conceptually attractive surrogate for conservation planning. However, there has been only 1 attempt to determine how well sites selected to maximize β diversity represent species, and that test was done at a scale too coarse (2,500 km2 sites) to inform most conservation decisions. We used 8 plant datasets, 3 bird datasets, and 1 mammal dataset to evaluate whether sites selected to span β diversity will efficiently represent species at finer scale (sites sizes < 1 ha to 625 km2). We used ordinations to characterize dissimilarity in species assemblages (β diversity) among plots (inventory data) or among grid cells (atlas data). We then selected sites to maximize β diversity and used the Species Accumulation Index, SAI, to evaluate how efficiently the surrogate (selecting sites for maximum β diversity) represented species in the same taxon. Across all 12 datasets, sites selected for maximum β diversity represented species with a median efficiency of 24% (i.e., the surrogate was 24% more effective than random selection of sites), and an interquartile range of 4% to 41% efficiency. β diversity was a better surrogate for bird datasets than for plant datasets, and for atlas datasets with 10-km to 14-km grid cells than for atlas datasets with 25-km grid cells. We conclude that β diversity is more than a mere descriptor of how species are distributed on the landscape; in particular β diversity might be useful to maximize the complementarity of a set of sites. Because we tested only within-taxon surrogacy, our results do not prove that β diversity is useful for conservation planning. But our results do justify further investigation to identify the circumstances in which β diversity performs well, and to evaluate it as a cross-taxon surrogate. PMID:26943170

  16. Evaluating β Diversity as a Surrogate for Species Representation at Fine Scale.

    PubMed

    Beier, Paul; Albuquerque, Fábio

    2016-01-01

    Species turnover or β diversity is a conceptually attractive surrogate for conservation planning. However, there has been only 1 attempt to determine how well sites selected to maximize β diversity represent species, and that test was done at a scale too coarse (2,500 km2 sites) to inform most conservation decisions. We used 8 plant datasets, 3 bird datasets, and 1 mammal dataset to evaluate whether sites selected to span β diversity will efficiently represent species at finer scale (sites sizes < 1 ha to 625 km2). We used ordinations to characterize dissimilarity in species assemblages (β diversity) among plots (inventory data) or among grid cells (atlas data). We then selected sites to maximize β diversity and used the Species Accumulation Index, SAI, to evaluate how efficiently the surrogate (selecting sites for maximum β diversity) represented species in the same taxon. Across all 12 datasets, sites selected for maximum β diversity represented species with a median efficiency of 24% (i.e., the surrogate was 24% more effective than random selection of sites), and an interquartile range of 4% to 41% efficiency. β diversity was a better surrogate for bird datasets than for plant datasets, and for atlas datasets with 10-km to 14-km grid cells than for atlas datasets with 25-km grid cells. We conclude that β diversity is more than a mere descriptor of how species are distributed on the landscape; in particular β diversity might be useful to maximize the complementarity of a set of sites. Because we tested only within-taxon surrogacy, our results do not prove that β diversity is useful for conservation planning. But our results do justify further investigation to identify the circumstances in which β diversity performs well, and to evaluate it as a cross-taxon surrogate. PMID:26943170

  17. CFD-based surrogate modeling of liquid rocket engine components via design space refinement and sensitivity assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mack, Yolanda

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) can be used to improve the design and optimization of rocket engine components that traditionally rely on empirical calculations and limited experimentation. CFD based-design optimization can be made computationally affordable through the use of surrogate modeling which can then facilitate additional parameter sensitivity assessments. The present study investigates surrogate-based adaptive design space refinement (DSR) using estimates of surrogate uncertainty to probe the CFD analyses and to perform sensitivity assessments for complex fluid physics associated with liquid rocket engine components. Three studies were conducted. First, a surrogate-based preliminary design optimization was conducted to improve the efficiency of a compact radial turbine for an expander cycle rocket engine while maintaining low weight. Design space refinement was used to identify function constraints and to obtain a high accuracy surrogate model in the region of interest. A merit function formulation for multi-objective design point selection reduced the number of design points by an order of magnitude while maintaining good surrogate accuracy among the best trade-off points. Second, bluff body-induced flow was investigated to identify the physics and surrogate modeling issues related to the flow's mixing dynamics. Multiple surrogates and DSR were instrumental in identifying designs for which the CFD model was deficient and to help to pinpoint the nature of the deficiency. Next, a three-dimensional computational model was developed to explore the wall heat transfer of a GO2/GH2 shear coaxial single element injector. The interactions between turbulent recirculating flow structures, chemical kinetics, and heat transfer are highlighted. Finally, a simplified computational model of multi-element injector flows was constructed to explore the sensitivity of wall heating and improve combustion efficiency to injector element spacing. Design space refinement

  18. Applying psychological theories to evidence-based clinical practice: identifying factors predictive of lumbar spine x-ray for low back pain in UK primary care practice

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    explained by individual theories was TPB 25.0%, SCT 21.5%, CS-SRM 11.3%, OLT 26.3%, PAP 2.6%, and knowledge 2.3%, and in the cross-theory analysis constructs from TPB, SCT, CS-SRM, and OLT explained 33.5% variance in intention. Together these results suggest that physicians' beliefs about consequences and beliefs about capabilities are likely determinants of lumbar spine x-ray referrals. Conclusions The study provides evidence that taking a theory-based approach enables the creation of a replicable methodology for identifying factors that predict clinical behaviour. However, a number of conceptual and methodological challenges remain. PMID:21619689

  19. Non-covalent thrombin inhibitors featuring P3-heterocycles with P1-bicyclic arginine surrogates.

    PubMed

    Cui, Jingrong Jean; Araldi, Gian-Luca; Reiner, John E; Reddy, Komandla Malla; Kemp, Scott J; Ho, Jonathan Z; Siev, Daniel V; Mamedova, Lala; Gibson, Tony S; Gaudette, John A; Minami, Nathaniel K; Anderson, Susanne M; Bradbury, Annette E; Nolan, Thomas G; Semple, J Edward

    2002-10-21

    Novel, potent, and highly selective classes of thrombin inhibitors were identified, which resulted from judicious combination of P4-aromatics and P2-P3-heterocyclic dipeptide surrogates with weakly basic (calcd pKa approximately non-basic-8.6) bicyclic P1-arginine mimics. The design, synthesis, and biological activity of achiral, non-covalent, orally bioavailable inhibitors NC1-NC44 featuring P1-indazoles, benzimidazoles, indoles, benzotriazoles, and aminobenzisoxazoles is disclosed.

  20. Surrogate models of precessing numerical relativity gravitational waveforms for use in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott; Galley, Chad; Hemberger, Daniel; Scheel, Mark; Schmidt, Patricia; Smith, Rory; SXS Collaboration Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We are now in the advanced detector era of gravitational wave astronomy, and the merger of two black holes (BHs) is one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves that could be detected on earth. To infer the BH masses and spins, the observed signal must be compared to waveforms predicted by general relativity for millions of binary configurations. Numerical relativity (NR) simulations can produce accurate waveforms, but are prohibitively expensive to use for parameter estimation. Other waveform models are fast enough but may lack accuracy in portions of the parameter space. Numerical relativity surrogate models attempt to rapidly predict the results of a NR code with a small or negligible modeling error, after being trained on a set of input waveforms. Such surrogate models are ideal for parameter estimation, as they are both fast and accurate, and have already been built for the case of non-spinning BHs. Using 250 input waveforms, we build a surrogate model for waveforms from the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC) for a subspace of precessing systems.

  1. Monte Carlo simulation of transfer reactions using extended R-matrix theory picturing surrogate-type WFCF features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouland, Olivier H.

    2016-03-01

    This article supplies an overview of issues related to the interpretation of surrogate measurement results for neutron-incident cross section predictions; difficulties that are somehow masked by the historical conversion route based on Weisskopf-Ewing approximation. Our proposal is to handle the various difficulties by using a more rigorous approach relying on Monte Carlo simulation of transfer reactions with extended R-matrix theory. The multiple deficiencies of the historical surrogate treatment are recalled but only one is examined in some details here; meaning the calculation of in-out-going channel Width Fluctuation Correction Factors (WFCF) which behavior witness partly the failure of Niels Bohr's compound nucleus theoretical landmark. Relevant WFCF calculations according to neutron-induced surrogate- and cross section-types as a function of neutron-induced fluctuating energy range [0 - 2.1 MeV] are presented and commented in the case of the 240Pu* and 241Pu* compound nucleus isotopes.

  2. Development of a surrogate kinetic mechanism for photochemical smog. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Leone, J.A.; Seinfeld, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    A surrogate condensed chemical reaction mechanism for photochemical smog containing the latest available kinetic and mechanistic data is developed here and is extensively tested against experimental data from two smog-chamber facilities. In addition, a counter species analysis has shown that the prediction of the individual portions of the surrogate mechanism are in good agreement with those of a detailed explicit mechanism for photochemical smog. The new mechanism contains 20 non-steady-state species, making it compact enough for use in multidimensional grid models of urban air pollution. A major advantage of the new mechanism is the ease with which it can be modified to incorporate new kinetic or mechanistic information because of the straightforward manner in which the mechanism was formulated from the detailed explicit chemistry.

  3. Emotional experiences in surrogate mothers: A qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Ahmari Tehran, Hoda; Tashi, Shohreh; Mehran, Nahid; Eskandari, Narges; Dadkhah Tehrani, Tahmineh

    2014-01-01

    Background: Surrogacy is one of the new techniques of assisted reproduction technology in which a woman carries and bears a child for another woman. In Iran, many Shia clerics and jurists considered it permissible so there is no religious prohibition for it. In addition to the risk of physical complications for complete surrogate mothers, the possibility of psychological complications resulted from emotional attachment to a living creature in the surrogate mother as another injury requires counseling and assessment prior to acceptance by infertile couples and complete surrogate mothers. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the emotional experiences of surrogate mothers. Materials and Methods: This was a qualitative, phenomenological study. We selected eight complete surrogate mothers in Isfahan. We used convenient sampling method and in-depth interview to collect the information. The data analysis was fulfilled via Colaizzi’s seven-stage method. Reliability and validity study of the roots in the four-axis was done. Results: The findings of these interviews were classified into two main themes and four sub themes: acquired experiences in pregnancy (feelings toward pregnancy, relationship with family, relatives and commissioning couple) and consequences of surrogacy (complications of pregnancy, religious and financial problems of surrogacy). Conclusion: Surrogacy pregnancy should be considered as high-risk emotional experience because many of surrogate mothers may face negative experiences. Therefore, it is recommended that surrogates should receive professional counseling prior to, during and following pregnancy. PMID:25114669

  4. Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leser, Patrick E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Newman, John A.; Leser, William P.; Warner, James E.; Wawrzynek, Paul A.; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo

    2015-01-01

    Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.

  5. Enteric Viral Surrogate Reduction by Chitosan.

    PubMed

    Davis, Robert; Zivanovic, Svetlana; Davidson, P Michael; D'Souza, Doris H

    2015-12-01

    Enteric viruses are a major problem in the food industry, especially as human noroviruses are the leading cause of nonbacterial gastroenteritis. Chitosan is known to be effective against some enteric viral surrogates, but more detailed studies are needed to determine the precise application variables. The main objective of this work was to determine the effect of increasing chitosan concentration (0.7-1.5% w/v) on the cultivable enteric viral surrogates, feline calicivirus (FCV-F9), murine norovirus (MNV-1), and bacteriophages (MS2 and phiX174) at 37 °C. Two chitosans (53 and 222 kDa) were dissolved in water (53 kDa) or 1% acetic acid (222 KDa) at 0.7-1.5%, and were then mixed with each virus to obtain a titer of ~5 log plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL. These mixtures were incubated for 3 h at 37 °C. Controls included untreated viruses in phosphate-buffered saline and viruses were enumerated by plaque assays. The 53 kDa chitosan at the concentrations tested reduced FCV-F9, MNV-1, MS2, and phi X174 by 2.6-2.9, 0.1-0.4, 2.6-2.8, and 0.7-0.9 log PFU/mL, respectively, while reduction by 222 kDa chitosan was 2.2-2.4, 0.8-1.0, 2.6-5.2, and 0.5-0.8 log PFU/mL, respectively. The 222 kDa chitosan at 1 and 0.7% w/v in acetic acid (pH 4.5) caused the greatest reductions of MS2 by 5.2 logs and 2.6 logs, respectively. Overall, chitosan treatments showed the greatest reduction of MS2, followed by FCV-F9, phi X174, and MNV-1. These two chitosans may contribute to the reduction of enteric viruses at the concentrations tested but would require use of other hurdles to eliminate food borne viruses. PMID:26162243

  6. Enteric Viral Surrogate Reduction by Chitosan.

    PubMed

    Davis, Robert; Zivanovic, Svetlana; Davidson, P Michael; D'Souza, Doris H

    2015-12-01

    Enteric viruses are a major problem in the food industry, especially as human noroviruses are the leading cause of nonbacterial gastroenteritis. Chitosan is known to be effective against some enteric viral surrogates, but more detailed studies are needed to determine the precise application variables. The main objective of this work was to determine the effect of increasing chitosan concentration (0.7-1.5% w/v) on the cultivable enteric viral surrogates, feline calicivirus (FCV-F9), murine norovirus (MNV-1), and bacteriophages (MS2 and phiX174) at 37 °C. Two chitosans (53 and 222 kDa) were dissolved in water (53 kDa) or 1% acetic acid (222 KDa) at 0.7-1.5%, and were then mixed with each virus to obtain a titer of ~5 log plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL. These mixtures were incubated for 3 h at 37 °C. Controls included untreated viruses in phosphate-buffered saline and viruses were enumerated by plaque assays. The 53 kDa chitosan at the concentrations tested reduced FCV-F9, MNV-1, MS2, and phi X174 by 2.6-2.9, 0.1-0.4, 2.6-2.8, and 0.7-0.9 log PFU/mL, respectively, while reduction by 222 kDa chitosan was 2.2-2.4, 0.8-1.0, 2.6-5.2, and 0.5-0.8 log PFU/mL, respectively. The 222 kDa chitosan at 1 and 0.7% w/v in acetic acid (pH 4.5) caused the greatest reductions of MS2 by 5.2 logs and 2.6 logs, respectively. Overall, chitosan treatments showed the greatest reduction of MS2, followed by FCV-F9, phi X174, and MNV-1. These two chitosans may contribute to the reduction of enteric viruses at the concentrations tested but would require use of other hurdles to eliminate food borne viruses.

  7. Surrogate motherhood as a medical treatment procedure for women's infertility.

    PubMed

    Jovic, Olga S

    2011-03-01

    The content of this work is conceived on the research of the consequences of surrogate motherhood as a process of assisted procreation, which represent a way of parenthood in cases when it is not possible to realize parenthood through a natural way. Surrogate motherhood is a process in which a woman (surrogate mother) agrees to carry a pregnancy with the intent to give the child to the couple with whom she has made a contract on surrogate maternity after the birth. This process of conception and birth makes the determination of the child's origin on its mother's side hard to determine, because of the distinction of the genetic and gestation phases of the two women. The concept of surrogate motherhood is to appear in two forms, depending on the existence or the non-existence of the genetic link between the surrogate mother and the child she gives birth to. There are gestation (full) and genetic (partial) surrogates each with different modalities and legal and ethical implications. In Serbia, Infertility Treatment and the Bio-medically Assisted Procreation Act from 2009 explicitly forbids surrogate motherhood, despite the fact that an infertile couple decides to use it, as a rule, after having tried all other treatment procedures, in cases when there is a diagnosis but the conventional treatment applied has not produced the desired results. Given the fact that no one has the right to ignore the sufferings of people who cannot procreate naturally, the medical practice and legal science in our country plead for a formulation of a legal framework in which to apply surrogate motherhood as an infertility treatment, under particular conditions. PMID:21528795

  8. Systematic Mutagenesis of Genes Encoding Predicted Autotransported Proteins of Burkholderia pseudomallei Identifies Factors Mediating Virulence in Mice, Net Intracellular Replication and a Novel Protein Conferring Serum Resistance

    PubMed Central

    Adler, Natalie R. Lazar; Stevens, Mark P.; Dean, Rachel E.; Saint, Richard J.; Pankhania, Depesh; Prior, Joann L.; Atkins, Timothy P.; Kessler, Bianca; Nithichanon, Arnone; Lertmemongkolchai, Ganjana; Galyov, Edouard E.

    2015-01-01

    Burkholderia pseudomallei is the causative agent of the severe tropical disease melioidosis, which commonly presents as sepsis. The B. pseudomallei K96243 genome encodes eleven predicted autotransporters, a diverse family of secreted and outer membrane proteins often associated with virulence. In a systematic study of these autotransporters, we constructed insertion mutants in each gene predicted to encode an autotransporter and assessed them for three pathogenesis-associated phenotypes: virulence in the BALB/c intra-peritoneal mouse melioidosis model, net intracellular replication in J774.2 murine macrophage-like cells and survival in 45% (v/v) normal human serum. From the complete repertoire of eleven autotransporter mutants, we identified eight mutants which exhibited an increase in median lethal dose of 1 to 2-log10 compared to the isogenic parent strain (bcaA, boaA, boaB, bpaA, bpaC, bpaE, bpaF and bimA). Four mutants, all demonstrating attenuation for virulence, exhibited reduced net intracellular replication in J774.2 macrophage-like cells (bimA, boaB, bpaC and bpaE). A single mutant (bpaC) was identified that exhibited significantly reduced serum survival compared to wild-type. The bpaC mutant, which demonstrated attenuation for virulence and net intracellular replication, was sensitive to complement-mediated killing via the classical and/or lectin pathway. Serum resistance was rescued by in trans complementation. Subsequently, we expressed recombinant proteins of the passenger domain of four predicted autotransporters representing each of the phenotypic groups identified: those attenuated for virulence (BcaA), those attenuated for virulence and net intracellular replication (BpaE), the BpaC mutant with defects in virulence, net intracellular replication and serum resistance and those displaying wild-type phenotypes (BatA). Only BcaA and BpaE elicited a strong IFN-γ response in a restimulation assay using whole blood from seropositive donors and were

  9. Systematic mutagenesis of genes encoding predicted autotransported proteins of Burkholderia pseudomallei identifies factors mediating virulence in mice, net intracellular replication and a novel protein conferring serum resistance.

    PubMed

    Lazar Adler, Natalie R; Stevens, Mark P; Dean, Rachel E; Saint, Richard J; Pankhania, Depesh; Prior, Joann L; Atkins, Timothy P; Kessler, Bianca; Nithichanon, Arnone; Lertmemongkolchai, Ganjana; Galyov, Edouard E

    2015-01-01

    Burkholderia pseudomallei is the causative agent of the severe tropical disease melioidosis, which commonly presents as sepsis. The B. pseudomallei K96243 genome encodes eleven predicted autotransporters, a diverse family of secreted and outer membrane proteins often associated with virulence. In a systematic study of these autotransporters, we constructed insertion mutants in each gene predicted to encode an autotransporter and assessed them for three pathogenesis-associated phenotypes: virulence in the BALB/c intra-peritoneal mouse melioidosis model, net intracellular replication in J774.2 murine macrophage-like cells and survival in 45% (v/v) normal human serum. From the complete repertoire of eleven autotransporter mutants, we identified eight mutants which exhibited an increase in median lethal dose of 1 to 2-log10 compared to the isogenic parent strain (bcaA, boaA, boaB, bpaA, bpaC, bpaE, bpaF and bimA). Four mutants, all demonstrating attenuation for virulence, exhibited reduced net intracellular replication in J774.2 macrophage-like cells (bimA, boaB, bpaC and bpaE). A single mutant (bpaC) was identified that exhibited significantly reduced serum survival compared to wild-type. The bpaC mutant, which demonstrated attenuation for virulence and net intracellular replication, was sensitive to complement-mediated killing via the classical and/or lectin pathway. Serum resistance was rescued by in trans complementation. Subsequently, we expressed recombinant proteins of the passenger domain of four predicted autotransporters representing each of the phenotypic groups identified: those attenuated for virulence (BcaA), those attenuated for virulence and net intracellular replication (BpaE), the BpaC mutant with defects in virulence, net intracellular replication and serum resistance and those displaying wild-type phenotypes (BatA). Only BcaA and BpaE elicited a strong IFN-γ response in a restimulation assay using whole blood from seropositive donors and were

  10. Development of a predictive model to identify inpatients at risk of re-admission within 30 days of discharge (PARR-30)

    PubMed Central

    Billings, John; Blunt, Ian; Steventon, Adam; Georghiou, Theo; Lewis, Geraint; Bardsley, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To develop an algorithm for identifying inpatients at high risk of re-admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital in England within 30 days of discharge using information that can either be obtained from hospital information systems or from the patient and their notes. Design Multivariate statistical analysis of routinely collected hospital episode statistics (HES) data using logistic regression to build the predictive model. The model's performance was calculated using bootstrapping. Setting HES data covering all NHS hospital admissions in England. Participants The NHS patients were admitted to hospital between April 2008 and March 2009 (10% sample of all admissions, n=576 868). Main outcome measures Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the algorithm, together with its positive predictive value and sensitivity for a range of risk score thresholds. Results The algorithm produces a ‘risk score’ ranging (0–1) for each admitted patient, and the percentage of patients with a re-admission within 30 days and the mean re-admission costs of all patients are provided for 20 risk bands. At a risk score threshold of 0.5, the positive predictive value (ie, percentage of inpatients identified as high risk who were subsequently re-admitted within 30 days) was 59.2% (95% CI 58.0% to 60.5%); representing 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%) of all inpatients who would be re-admitted within 30 days (sensitivity). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.70). Conclusions We have developed a method of identifying inpatients at high risk of unplanned re-admission to NHS hospitals within 30 days of discharge. Though the models had a low sensitivity, we show how to identify subgroups of patients that contain a high proportion of patients who will be re-admitted within 30 days. Additional work is necessary to validate the model in practice. PMID:22885591

  11. Surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jatnieks, Janis; De Lucia, Marco; Sips, Mike; Dransch, Doris

    2016-04-01

    Reactive transport models can serve a large number of important geoscientific applications involving underground resources in industry and scientific research. It is common for simulation of reactive transport to consist of at least two coupled simulation models. First is a hydrodynamics simulator that is responsible for simulating the flow of groundwaters and transport of solutes. Hydrodynamics simulators are well established technology and can be very efficient. When hydrodynamics simulations are performed without coupled geochemistry, their spatial geometries can span millions of elements even when running on desktop workstations. Second is a geochemical simulation model that is coupled to the hydrodynamics simulator. Geochemical simulation models are much more computationally costly. This is a problem that makes reactive transport simulations spanning millions of spatial elements very difficult to achieve. To address this problem we propose to replace the coupled geochemical simulation model with a surrogate model. A surrogate is a statistical model created to include only the necessary subset of simulator complexity for a particular scenario. To demonstrate the viability of such an approach we tested it on a popular reactive transport benchmark problem that involves 1D Calcite transport. This is a published benchmark problem (Kolditz, 2012) for simulation models and for this reason we use it to test the surrogate model approach. To do this we tried a number of statistical models available through the caret and DiceEval packages for R, to be used as surrogate models. These were trained on randomly sampled subset of the input-output data from the geochemical simulation model used in the original reactive transport simulation. For validation we use the surrogate model to predict the simulator output using the part of sampled input data that was not used for training the statistical model. For this scenario we find that the multivariate adaptive regression splines

  12. Methodology for Formulating Diesel Surrogate Fuels with Accurate Compositional, Ignition-Quality, and Volatility Characteristics

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, Charles J.; Cannella, William J.; Bruno, Thomas J.; Bunting, Bruce G.; Dettman, Heather; Franz, James A.; Huber, Marcia L.; Natarajan, Mani; Pitz, William J.; Ratcliff, Matthew A.; Wright, Ken

    2012-07-26

    In this study, a novel approach was developed to formulate surrogate fuels having characteristics that are representative of diesel fuels produced from real-world refinery streams. Because diesel fuels typically consist of hundreds of compounds, it is difficult to conclusively determine the effects of fuel composition on combustion properties. Surrogate fuels, being simpler representations of these practical fuels, are of interest because they can provide a better understanding of fundamental fuel-composition and property effects on combustion and emissions-formation processes in internal-combustion engines. In addition, the application of surrogate fuels in numerical simulations with accurate vaporization, mixing, and combustion models could revolutionize future engine designs by enabling computational optimization for evolving real fuels. Dependable computational design would not only improve engine function, it would do so at significant cost savings relative to current optimization strategies that rely on physical testing of hardware prototypes. The approach in this study utilized the stateof- the-art techniques of 13C and 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and the advanced distillation curve to characterize fuel composition and volatility, respectively. The ignition quality was quantified by the derived cetane number. Two wellcharacterized, ultra-low-sulfur #2 diesel reference fuels produced from refinery streams were used as target fuels: a 2007 emissions certification fuel and a Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE) diesel fuel. A surrogate was created for each target fuel by blending eight pure compounds. The known carbon bond types within the pure compounds, as well as models for the ignition qualities and volatilities of their mixtures, were used in a multiproperty regression algorithm to determine optimal surrogate formulations. The predicted and measured surrogate-fuel properties were quantitatively

  13. Recognition of antigen-specific B-cell receptors from chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients by synthetic antigen surrogates.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, Mohosin; Liu, Yun; Morimoto, Jumpei; Peng, Haiyong; Aquino, Claudio; Rader, Christoph; Chiorazzi, Nicholas; Kodadek, Thomas

    2014-12-18

    In patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), a single neoplastic antigen-specific B cell accumulates and overgrows other B cells, leading to immune deficiency. CLL is often treated with drugs that ablate all B cells, leading to further weakening of humoral immunity, and a more focused therapeutic strategy capable of targeting only the pathogenic B cells would represent a significant advance. One approach to this would be to develop synthetic surrogates of the CLL antigens allowing differentiation of the CLL cells and healthy B cells in a patient. Here, we describe nonpeptidic molecules capable of targeting antigen-specific B cell receptors with good affinity and selectivity using a combinatorial library screen. We demonstrate that our hit compounds act as synthetic antigen surrogates and recognize CLL cells and not healthy B cells. Additionally, we argue that the technology we developed can be used to identify other classes of antigen surrogates.

  14. Carboxylate Surrogates Enhance the Antimycobacterial Activity of UDP-Galactopyranose Mutase Probes.

    PubMed

    Winton, Valerie J; Aldrich, Claudia; Kiessling, Laura L

    2016-08-12

    Uridine diphosphate galactopyranose mutase (UGM also known as Glf) is a biosynthetic enzyme required for construction of the galactan, an essential mycobacterial cell envelope polysaccharide. Our group previously identified two distinct classes of UGM inhibitors; each possesses a carboxylate moiety that is crucial for potency yet likely detrimental for cell permeability. To enhance the antimycobacterial potency, we sought to replace the carboxylate with a functional group mimic-an N-acylsulfonamide group. We therefore synthesized a series of N-acylsulfonamide analogs and tested their ability to inhibit UGM. For each inhibitor scaffold tested, the N-acylsulfonamide group functions as an effective carboxylate surrogate. Although the carboxylates and their surrogates show similar activity against UGM in a test tube, several N-acylsulfonamide derivatives more effectively block the growth of Mycobacterium smegmatis. These data suggest that the replacement of a carboxylate with an N-acylsulfonamide group could serve as a general strategy to augment antimycobacterial activity. PMID:27626294

  15. Identification of a physical metallurgy surrogate for the plutonium—1 wt. % gallium alloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbs, Frank E.; Olson, David L.; Hutchinson, William

    2000-07-01

    Future plutonium research is expected to be limited due to the downsizing of the nuclear weapons complex and an industry focus on environmental remediation and decommissioning of former manufacturing and research facilities. However, the need to further the understanding of the behavior of plutonium has not diminished. Disposition of high level residues, long-term storage of wastes, and certification of the nuclear stockpile through the Stockpile Stewardship Program are examples of the complex issues that must be addressed. Limited experimental facilities and the increasing cost of conducting plutonium research provide a strong argument for the development of surrogate materials. The purpose of this work was to identify a plutonium surrogate based on fundamental principles such as electronic structure, and then to experimentally demonstrate its viability.

  16. Inferring Positions of Tumor and Nodes in Stage III Lung Cancer From Multiple Anatomical Surrogates Using Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Malinowski, Kathleen T.; Pantarotto, Jason R.; Senan, Suresh

    2010-08-01

    Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of modeling Stage III lung cancer tumor and node positions from anatomical surrogates. Methods and Materials: To localize their centroids, the primary tumor and lymph nodes from 16 Stage III lung cancer patients were contoured in 10 equal-phase planning four-dimensional (4D) computed tomography (CT) image sets. The centroids of anatomical respiratory surrogates (carina, xyphoid, nipples, mid-sternum) in each image set were also localized. The correlations between target and surrogate positions were determined, and ordinary least-squares (OLS) and partial least-squares (PLS) regression models based on a subset of respiratory phases (three to eight randomly selected) were created to predict the target positions in the remaining images. The three-phase image sets that provided the best predictive information were used to create models based on either the carina alone or all surrogates. Results: The surrogate most correlated with target motion varied widely. Depending on the number of phases used to build the models, mean OLS and PLS errors were 1.0 to 1.4 mm and 0.8 to 1.0 mm, respectively. Models trained on the 0%, 40%, and 80% respiration phases had mean ({+-} standard deviation) PLS errors of 0.8 {+-} 0.5 mm and 1.1 {+-} 1.1 mm for models based on all surrogates and carina alone, respectively. For target coordinates with motion >5 mm, the mean three-phase PLS error based on all surrogates was 1.1 mm. Conclusions: Our results establish the feasibility of inferring primary tumor and nodal motion from anatomical surrogates in 4D CT scans of Stage III lung cancer. Using inferential modeling to decrease the processing time of 4D CT scans may facilitate incorporation of patient-specific treatment margins.

  17. Novel circular single-stranded DNA viruses identified in marine invertebrates reveal high sequence diversity and consistent predicted intrinsic disorder patterns within putative structural proteins

    PubMed Central

    Rosario, Karyna; Schenck, Ryan O.; Harbeitner, Rachel C.; Lawler, Stephanie N.; Breitbart, Mya

    2015-01-01

    Viral metagenomics has recently revealed the ubiquitous and diverse nature of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses that encode a conserved replication initiator protein (Rep) in the marine environment. Although eukaryotic circular Rep-encoding ssDNA (CRESS-DNA) viruses were originally thought to only infect plants and vertebrates, recent studies have identified these viruses in a number of invertebrates. To further explore CRESS-DNA viruses in the marine environment, this study surveyed CRESS-DNA viruses in various marine invertebrate species. A total of 27 novel CRESS-DNA genomes, with Reps that share less than 60.1% identity with previously reported viruses, were recovered from 21 invertebrate species, mainly crustaceans. Phylogenetic analysis based on the Rep revealed a novel clade of CRESS-DNA viruses that included approximately one third of the marine invertebrate associated viruses identified here and whose members may represent a novel family. Investigation of putative capsid proteins (Cap) encoded within the eukaryotic CRESS-DNA viral genomes from this study and those in GenBank demonstrated conserved patterns of predicted intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), which can be used to complement similarity-based searches to identify divergent structural proteins within novel genomes. Overall, this study expands our knowledge of CRESS-DNA viruses associated with invertebrates and explores a new tool to evaluate divergent structural proteins encoded by these viruses. PMID:26217327

  18. Pulsatile spinal cord surrogate for intradural neuromodulation studies.

    PubMed

    Wilson, S; Howard, M A; Rossen, J D; Brennan, T J; Dalm, B D; Dahdaleh, N S; Utz, M; Gillies, G T

    2012-01-01

    We have designed, built and tested a novel spinal cord surrogate that mimics the low-amplitude cardiac-driven pulsations of the human spinal cord, for use in developing intradural implants to be used in a novel form of neuromodulation for the treatment of intractable pain and motor system dysfunction. The silicone surrogate has an oval cross section, 10 mm major axis × 6 mm minor axis, and incorporates a 3 mm diameter × 3 cm long angioplasty balloon that serves as the pulsation actuator. When pneumatically driven at 1 Hz and 1.5 atmospheres (≈ 1140 mm Hg), the surrogate's diametric pulsation is ≈ 100 μm, which corresponds well to in vivo observations. The applications for this surrogate are presented and discussed. PMID:22188575

  19. SURROGATE SPECIES IN ASSESSING CONTAMINANT RISK FOR ENDANGERED FISHES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rainbow trout, fathead minnows, and sheepshead minnows were tested as surrogate species to assess contaminant risk for 17 endangered fishes and one toad species. Acute toxicity tests were conducted with carbaryl, copper, 4-nonylphenol, pentachlorophenol, and permethrin in accord...

  20. Bioaccessibility of metals in alloys: evaluation of three surrogate biofluids.

    PubMed

    Hillwalker, Wendy E; Anderson, Kim A

    2014-02-01

    Bioaccessibility in vitro tests measure the solubility of materials in surrogate biofluids. However, the lack of uniform methods and the effects of variable test parameters on material solubility limit interpretation. One aim of this study was to measure and compare bioaccessibility of selected economically important alloys and metals in surrogate physiologically based biofluids representing oral, inhalation and dermal exposures. A second aim was to experimentally test different biofluid formulations and residence times in vitro. A third aim was evaluation of dissolution behavior of alloys with in vitro lung and dermal biofluid surrogates. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of sixteen elements in six alloys and 3 elemental/metal powders. We found that the alloys/metals, the chemical properties of the surrogate fluid, and residence time all had major impacts on metal solubility. The large variability of bioaccessibility indicates the relevancy of assessing alloys as toxicologically distinct relative to individual metals.

  1. Bioaccessibility of metals in alloys: Evaluation of three surrogate biofluids

    PubMed Central

    Hillwalker, Wendy E.; Anderson, Kim A.

    2014-01-01

    Bioaccessibility in vitro tests measure the solubility of materials in surrogate biofluids. However, the lack of uniform methods and the effects of variable test parameters on material solubility limit interpretation. One aim of this study was to measure and compare bioaccessibility of selected economically important alloys and metals in surrogate physiologically based biofluids representing oral, inhalation and dermal exposures. A second aim was to experimentally test different biofluid formulations and residence times in vitro. A third aim was evaluation of dissolution behavior of alloys with in vitro lung and dermal biofluid surrogates. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of sixteen elements in six alloys and 3 elemental/metal powders. We found that the alloys/metals, the chemical properties of the surrogate fluid, and residence time all had major impacts on metal solubility. The large variability of bioaccessibility indicates the relevancy of assessing alloys as toxicologically distinct relative to individual metals. PMID:24212234

  2. Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain: validity and limitations.

    PubMed

    Binder, Andreas

    2016-02-01

    Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain in healthy subjects are used to study symptoms, signs, and the hypothesized underlying mechanisms. Although different models are available, different spontaneous and evoked symptoms and signs are inducible; 2 key questions need to be answered: are human surrogate models conceptually valid, ie, do they share the sensory phenotype of neuropathic pain states, and are they sufficiently reliable to allow consistent translational research?

  3. Act relating to surrogate parenthood contracts, 10 February 1988.

    PubMed

    1988-01-01

    This Nebraska Act provides that surrogate parenthood contracts are void and unenforceable and that the "biological father of a child born pursuant to such a contract shall have all the rights and obligations imposed by law with respect to the child." A surrogate parenthood contract is defined as "a contract by which a woman is to be compensated for bearing a child of a man who is not her husband." PMID:12289630

  4. Construction of accuracy-preserving surrogate for the eigenvalue radiation diffusion and/or transport problem

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, C.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S.

    2012-07-01

    The construction of surrogate models for high fidelity models is now considered an important objective in support of all engineering activities which require repeated execution of the simulation, such as verification studies, validation exercises, and uncertainty quantification. The surrogate must be computationally inexpensive to allow its repeated execution, and must be computationally accurate in order for its predictions to be credible. This manuscript introduces a new surrogate construction approach that reduces the dimensionality of the state solution via a range-finding algorithm from linear algebra. It then employs a proper orthogonal decomposition-like approach to solve for the reduced state. The algorithm provides an upper bound on the error resulting from the reduction. Different from the state-of-the-art, the new approach allows the user to define the desired accuracy a priori which controls the maximum allowable reduction. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using an eigenvalue radiation diffusion model, where the accuracy is selected to match machine precision. Results indicate that significant reduction is possible for typical reactor assembly models, which are currently considered expensive given the need to employ very fine mesh many group calculations to ensure the highest possible fidelity for the downstream core calculations. Given the potential for significant reduction in the computational cost, we believe it is possible to rethink the manner in which homogenization theory is currently employed in reactor design calculations. (authors)

  5. Kriging-based generation of optimal databases as forward and inverse surrogate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilicz, S.; Lambert, M.; Gyimóthy, Sz

    2010-07-01

    Numerical methods are used to simulate mathematical models for a wide range of engineering problems. The precision provided by such simulators is usually fine, but at the price of computational cost. In some applications this cost might be crucial. This leads us to consider cheap surrogate models in order to reduce the computation time still meeting the precision requirements. Among all available surrogate models, we deal herein with the generation of an 'optimal' database of pre-calculated results combined with a simple interpolator. A database generation approach is investigated which is intended to achieve an optimal sampling. Such databases can be used for the approximate solution of both forward and inverse problems. Their structure carries some meta-information about the involved physical problem. In the case of the inverse problem, an approach for predicting the uncertainty of the solution (due to the applied surrogate model and/or the uncertainty of the measured data) is presented. All methods are based on kriging—a stochastic tool for function approximation. Illustrative examples are drawn from eddy current non-destructive evaluation.

  6. Evaluation of surrogate tissues as indicators of drug activity in a melanoma skin model.

    PubMed

    Parekh, Palak R; Choudhuri, Rohini; Weyemi, Urbain; Martin, Olga A; Bonner, William M; Redon, Christophe E

    2016-08-01

    The development of novel cancer treatments is a challenging task, partly because results from model systems often fail to predict drug efficacy in humans, and also tumors are often inaccessible for biochemical analysis, preventing effective monitoring of drug activity in vivo. Utilizing a model system, we evaluated the use of drug-induced DNA damage in surrogate tissues as indicators of drug efficacy. Samples of a commercially available melanoma skin model (Mattek MLNM-FT-A375) containing keratinocyte and fibroblast layers with melanoma nodules were subjected to various chemotherapeutic regimens for one, four, or eight days. At these times they were analyzed for DNA double-stranded breaks (γH2AX foci) and apoptosis (TUNEL). A wide range of drug responses in both tumor and normal tissues were observed and cataloged. For the melanoma, the most common drug response was apoptosis. The basal keratinocyte layer, which was the most reliable indicator of drug response in the melanoma skin model, responded with γH2AX foci formation that was abrupt and transient. The relationships between tumor and surrogate tissue drug responses are complex, indicating that while surrogate tissue drug responses may be useful clinical tools, careful control of variables such as the timing of sampling may be important in interpreting the results. PMID:27339860

  7. Surrogate/spent fuel sabotage : aerosol ratio test program and Phase 2 test results.

    SciTech Connect

    Borek, Theodore Thaddeus III; Thompson, N. Slater; Sorenson, Ken Bryce; Hibbs, R.S.; Nolte, Oliver; Molecke, Martin Alan; Autrusson, Bruno; Young, F. I.; Koch, Wolfgang; Brochard, Didier; Pretzsch, Gunter Guido; Lange, Florentin

    2004-05-01

    A multinational test program is in progress to quantify the aerosol particulates produced when a high energy density device, HEDD, impacts surrogate material and actual spent fuel test rodlets. This program provides needed data that are relevant to some sabotage scenarios in relation to spent fuel transport and storage casks, and associated risk assessments; the program also provides significant political benefits in international cooperation. We are quantifying the spent fuel ratio, SFR, the ratio of the aerosol particles released from HEDD-impacted actual spent fuel to the aerosol particles produced from surrogate materials, measured under closely matched test conditions. In addition, we are measuring the amounts, nuclide content, size distribution of the released aerosol materials, and enhanced sorption of volatile fission product nuclides onto specific aerosol particle size fractions. These data are crucial for predicting radiological impacts. This document includes a thorough description of the test program, including the current, detailed test plan, concept and design, plus a description of all test components, and requirements for future components and related nuclear facility needs. It also serves as a program status report as of the end of FY 2003. All available test results, observations, and analyses - primarily for surrogate material Phase 2 tests using cerium oxide sintered ceramic pellets are included. This spent fuel sabotage - aerosol test program is coordinated with the international Working Group for Sabotage Concerns of Transport and Storage Casks, WGSTSC, and supported by both the U.S. Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

  8. Plan of Action: JASPER Management Prestart Review (Surrogate Material Experiments)

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, W.E.

    2000-09-29

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental Research (JASPER) Facility is being developed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to conduct shock physics experiments on special nuclear material and other actinide materials. JASPER will use a two-stage, light-gas gun to shoot projectiles at actinide targets. Projectile velocities will range from 1 to 8 km/s, inducing pressures in the target material up to 6 Mbar. The JASPER gas gun has been designed to match the critical dimensions of the two-stage, light-gas gun in Building 341 of LLNL. The goal in copying the LLNL gun design is to take advantage of the extensive ballistics database that exists and to minimize the effort spent on gun characterization in the initial facility start-up. A siting study conducted by an inter-Laboratory team identified Able Site in Area 27 of the NTS as the best location for the JASPER gas gun. Able Site consists of three major buildings that had previously been used to support the nuclear test program. In April 1999, Able Site was decommissioned as a Nuclear Explosive Assembly Facility and turned back to the DOE for other uses. Construction and facility modifications at Able Site to support the JASPER project started in April 1999 and were completed in September 1999. The gas gun and the secondary confinement chamber (SCC) were installed in early 2000. During the year, all facility and operational systems were brought on line. Initial system integration demonstrations were completed in September 2000. The facility is anticipated to be operational by August 2001, and the expected life cycle for the facility is 10 years. LLNL Nevada Experiments and Operations (N) Program has established a Management Prestart Review (MPR) team to determine the readiness of the JASPER personnel and facilities to initiate surrogate-material experiments. The review coincides with the completion of authorization-basis documents and physical subsystems, which have

  9. Plan of Action: JASPER Management Prestart Review (Surrogate Material Experiment)

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, W E

    2000-12-05

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental Research (JASPER) Facility is being developed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to conduct shock physics experiments on special nuclear material and other actinide materials. JASPER will use a two-stage, light-gas gun to shoot projectiles at actinide targets. Projectile velocities will range from 1 to 8 km/s, inducing pressures in the target material up to 6 Mbar. The JASPER gas gun has been designed to match the critical dimensions of the two-stage, light-gas gun in Building 341 of LLNL. The goal in copying the LLNL gun design is to take advantage of the extensive ballistics database that exists and to minimize the effort spent on gun characterization in the initial facility start-up. A siting study conducted by an inter-Laboratory team identified Able Site in Area 27 of the NTS as the best location for the JASPER gas gun. Able Site consists of three major buildings that had previously been used to support the nuclear test program. In April 1999, Able Site was decommissioned as a Nuclear Explosive Assembly Facility and turned back to the DOE for other uses. Construction and facility modifications at Able Site to support the JASPER project started in April 1999 and were completed in September 1999. The gas gun and the secondary confinement chamber (SCC) were installed in early 2000. During the year, all facility and operational systems were brought on line. Initial system integration demonstrations were completed in September 2000. The facility is anticipated to be operational by August 2001, and the expected life cycle for the facility is 10 years. LLNL Nevada Experiments and Operations (N) Program has established a Management Prestart Review (MPR) team to determine the readiness of the JASPER personnel and facilities to initiate surrogate-material experiments. The review coincides with the completion of authorization-basis documents and physical subsystems, which have

  10. Bench-scale Analysis of Surrogates for Anaerobic Digestion Processes.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Zachary S; Long, Sharon C

    2016-05-01

    Frequent monitoring of anaerobic digestion processes for pathogen destruction is both cost and time prohibitive. The use of surrogates to supplement regulatory monitoring may be one solution. To evaluate surrogates, a semi-batch bench-scale anaerobic digester design was tested. Bench-scale reactors were operated under mesophilic (36 °C) and thermophilic (53-55 °C) conditions, with a 15 day solids retention time. Biosolids from different facilities and during different seasons were examined. USEPA regulated pathogens and surrogate organisms were enumerated at different times throughout each experiment. The surrogate organisms included fecal coliforms, E. coli, enterococci, male-specific and somatic coliphages, Clostridium perfringens, and bacterial spores. Male-specific coliphages tested well as a potential surrogate organism for virus inactivation. None of the tested surrogate organisms correlated well with helminth inactivation under the conditions studied. There were statistically significant differences in the inactivation rates between the facilities in this study, but not between seasons. PMID:27131309

  11. Project ATHENA Creates Surrogate Human Organ Systems

    SciTech Connect

    MacQueen, Luke; Knospel, Fanny; Sherrod, Stacy; Iyer, Rashi

    2015-06-15

    The development of miniature surrogate human organs, coupled with highly sensitive mass spectrometry technologies, could one day revolutionize the way new drugs and toxic agents are studied. “By developing this ‘homo minutus,’ we are stepping beyond the need for animal or Petri dish testing: There are huge benefits in developing drug and toxicity analysis systems that can mimic the response of actual human organs,” said Rashi Iyer, a senior scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory. ATHENA, the Advanced Tissue-engineered Human Ectypal Network Analyzer project team, is nearing the full integration of four human organ constructs — liver, heart, lung and kidney — each organ component is about the size of a smartphone screen, and the whole ATHENA “body” of interconnected organs will fit neatly on a desk. A new video available on the Los Alamos National Laboratory YouTube channel updates the ATHENA project as it begins to integrate the various organ systems into a single system (link to video here). Some 40 percent of pharmaceuticals fail their clinical trials and there are thousands of chemicals whose effects on humans are simply unknown. Providing a realistic, cost-effective and rapid screening system such as ATHENA with high-throughput capabilities could provide major benefits to the medical field, screening more accurately and offering a greater chance of clinical trial success. ATHENA is funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and is a collaboration of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Harvard University, Vanderbilt University, Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany, CFD Research Corporation, and the University of California San Francisco.

  12. ZipperDB: Predictions of Fibril-forming Segments within Proteins Identified by the 3D Profile Method (from the UCLA-DOE Institute for Genomics and Proteomics)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Goldschmidt, L.; Teng, P. K.; Riek, R.; Eisenberg, D.

    ZipperDB contains predictions of fibril-forming segments within proteins identified by the 3D Profile Method. The UCLA-DOE Institute for Genomics and Proteomics has analyzed over 20,000 putative protein sequences for segments with high fibrillation propensity that could form a "steric zipper"ùtwo self-complementary beta sheets, giving rise to the spine of an amyloid fibril. The approach is unique in that structural information is used to evaluate the likelihood that a particular sequence can form fibrils. [copied with edits from http://www.doe-mbi.ucla.edu/]. In addition to searching the database, academic and non-profit users may also submit their protein sequences to the database.

  13. Laser-Compton Scattered x-rays for non-destructive assay of surrogate fuel-cycle samples and imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naeem, Syed F.

    One of our research goals at the Idaho Accelerator Center focuses on Laser-Compton Scattering (LCS) based nuclear science applications such as non-destructively quantifying concentrations of transuranic (TRIJ) elements in a surrogate of spent nuclear fuel and imaging. Non-destructive techniques include x-ray transmission and x-ray fluorescence. Both of these can be very sensitive techniques with tunable monochromatic x-rays. We investigated quasi-monochromatic x-rays from LCS for this purpose. Four sharp ˜20 keV, ˜36.7 keV, ˜99 keV, and ˜122 keV LCS peaks were produced in four separate experiments using electron beams tuned to ˜33 MeV, -˜32 MeV, ˜37 MeV, and ˜41 MeV that were brought in collision with the Nd:YAG laser (the peak laser power was 4 GW) operating at 1064 nm, 532 nm and 266 nm wavelengths respectively. The linac was operating at 60 Hz with an electron beam pulse length of about 50 ps and a peak current of about 7 A. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) experiments were first carried out to identify elemental XRF emission from Ag, Cd, and Sn foils with thicknesses ranging from 25--500 mum, following the absorption of ˜36.7 keV LCS x-rays. The intensities of the measured Kalpha1 emission lines were then compared to the predicted Kalpha1 intensities; based on the comparison, there was an estimated deviation of up to ≈10.4% between the predicted and measured Kalpha1 intensities. Next, the transmission experiments were carried out by transmitting a ˜99 keV LCS x-ray beam through Bi foils of thicknesses ranging from 50--250 mum to measure the transmission of the interrogating LCS x-ray beam. There was a relative deviation of up to ≈9.4 % between the predicted and measured transmission respectively. We then focused on exploiting the Hybrid K-Edge Densitometry (HKED) technique for the purpose of quantifying the concentrations of Uranium in the surrogate of spent nuclear fuel using a ˜122 keV LCS x-ray beam. The measured concentrations deviated by about 2

  14. Incidence of Changes in Respiration-Induced Tumor Motion and Its Relationship With Respiratory Surrogates During Individual Treatment Fractions

    SciTech Connect

    Malinowski, Kathleen; McAvoy, Thomas J.; George, Rohini; Dietrich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To determine how frequently (1) tumor motion and (2) the spatial relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate markers change during a treatment fraction in lung and pancreas cancer patients. Methods and Materials: A Cyberknife Synchrony system radiographically localized the tumor and simultaneously tracked three respiratory surrogate markers fixed to a form-fitting vest. Data in 55 lung and 29 pancreas fractions were divided into successive 10-min blocks. Mean tumor positions and tumor position distributions were compared across 10-min blocks of data. Treatment margins were calculated from both 10 and 30 min of data. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models of tumor positions as a function of external surrogate marker positions were created from the first 10 min of data in each fraction; the incidence of significant PLS model degradation was used to assess changes in the spatial relationship between tumors and surrogate markers. Results: The absolute change in mean tumor position from first to third 10-min blocks was >5 mm in 13% and 7% of lung and pancreas cases, respectively. Superior-inferior and medial-lateral differences in mean tumor position were significantly associated with the lobe of lung. In 61% and 54% of lung and pancreas fractions, respectively, margins calculated from 30 min of data were larger than margins calculated from 10 min of data. The change in treatment margin magnitude for superior-inferior motion was >1 mm in 42% of lung and 45% of pancreas fractions. Significantly increasing tumor position prediction model error (mean {+-} standard deviation rates of change of 1.6 {+-} 2.5 mm per 10 min) over 30 min indicated tumor-surrogate relationship changes in 63% of fractions. Conclusions: Both tumor motion and the relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate displacements change in most treatment fractions for patient in-room time of 30 min.

  15. A Label-free Selected Reaction Monitoring Workflow Identifies a Subset of Pregnancy Specific Glycoproteins as Potential Predictive Markers of Early-onset Pre-eclampsia*

    PubMed Central

    Blankley, Richard T.; Fisher, Christal; Westwood, Melissa; North, Robyn; Baker, Philip N.; Walker, Michael J.; Williamson, Andrew; Whetton, Anthony D.; Lin, Wanchang; McCowan, Lesley; Roberts, Claire T.; Cooper, Garth J. S.; Unwin, Richard D.; Myers, Jenny E.

    2013-01-01

    Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious complication of pregnancy with potentially life threatening consequences for both mother and baby. Presently there is no test with the required performance to predict which healthy first-time mothers will go on to develop PE. The high specificity, sensitivity, and multiplexed nature of selected reaction monitoring holds great potential as a tool for the verification and validation of putative candidate biomarkersfor disease states. Realization of this potential involves establishing a high throughput, cost effective, reproducible sample preparation workflow. We have developed a semi-automated HPLC-based sample preparation workflow before a label-free selected reaction monitoring approach. This workflow has been applied to the search for novel predictive biomarkers for PE. To discover novel candidate biomarkers for PE, we used isobaric tagging to identify several potential biomarker proteins in plasma obtained at 15 weeks gestation from nulliparous women who later developed PE compared with pregnant women who remained healthy. Such a study generates a number of “candidate” biomarkers that require further testing in larger patient cohorts. As proof-of-principle, two of these proteins were taken forward for verification in a 100 women (58 PE, 42 controls) using label-free SRM. We obtained reproducible protein quantitation across the 100 samples and demonstrated significant changes in protein levels, even with as little as 20% change in protein concentration. The SRM data correlated with a commercial ELISA, suggesting that this is a robust workflow suitable for rapid, affordable, label-free verification of which candidate biomarkers should be taken forward for thorough investigation. A subset of pregnancy-specific glycoproteins (PSGs) had value as novel predictive markers for PE. PMID:23897580

  16. Development of a Drug-Response Modeling Framework to Identify Cell Line Derived Translational Biomarkers That Can Predict Treatment Outcome to Erlotinib or Sorafenib.

    PubMed

    Li, Bin; Shin, Hyunjin; Gulbekyan, Georgy; Pustovalova, Olga; Nikolsky, Yuri; Hope, Andrew; Bessarabova, Marina; Schu, Matthew; Kolpakova-Hart, Elona; Merberg, David; Dorner, Andrew; Trepicchio, William L

    2015-01-01

    Development of drug responsive biomarkers from pre-clinical data is a critical step in drug discovery, as it enables patient stratification in clinical trial design. Such translational biomarkers can be validated in early clinical trial phases and utilized as a patient inclusion parameter in later stage trials. Here we present a study on building accurate and selective drug sensitivity models for Erlotinib or Sorafenib from pre-clinical in vitro data, followed by validation of individual models on corresponding treatment arms from patient data generated in the BATTLE clinical trial. A Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) based modeling framework was designed and implemented, using a special splitting strategy and canonical pathways to capture robust information for model building. Erlotinib and Sorafenib predictive models could be used to identify a sub-group of patients that respond better to the corresponding treatment, and these models are specific to the corresponding drugs. The model derived signature genes reflect each drug's known mechanism of action. Also, the models predict each drug's potential cancer indications consistent with clinical trial results from a selection of globally normalized GEO expression datasets.

  17. Return to Work: A Cut-Off of FIM Gain with Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score in Order to Identify Predictive Factors in Subjects with Acquired Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Return to work (RTW) for people with acquired brain injury (ABI) represents a main objective of rehabilitation: this work presents a strong correlation between personal well-being and quality of life. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors that can predict RTW after ABI (traumatic or non- traumatic aetiology) in patients without disorders of consciousness (e.g. coma, vegetative or minimally conscious state) at the beginning of their admission to rehabilitation. At the end of a 6-month follow-up after discharge, data were successfully collected in 69 patients. The rehabilitation effectiveness (functional Recovery) between admission and discharge was assessed by Functional Independent Measure (FIM) gain, through the Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score (MRFS), which was obtained as follows: (discharge FIM—admission FIM)/(Maximum possible FIM—Admission FIM) x 100. The cut-off value (criterion) deriving from MRFS, which helped identify RTW patients, resulted in .659 (sn 88.9%; sp 52.4%). Considering the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the MRFS data, the multivariable binary logistic regression analysis presented 62.96% of correct RTW classification cases, 80.95% of non-RTW leading to an overall satisfactory predictability of 73.91%. The results of the present study suggest that occupational therapy intervention could modify cut-off in patients with an MFRS close to target at the end of an in-hospital rehabilitative program thus developing their capabilities and consequently surpassing cut-off itself. PMID:27780215

  18. Performance of the waist-to-height ratio in identifying obesity and predicting non-communicable diseases in the elderly population: A systematic literature review.

    PubMed

    Corrêa, Márcia Mara; Thumé, Elaine; De Oliveira, Elizabete Regina Araújo; Tomasi, Elaine

    2016-01-01

    A systematic review was carried out aiming to collect evidence on the use of the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) on the elderly population, focusing on validity measures to identify the best anthropometric indicator in assessing obesity associated with non-communicable diseases. The review consisted in a search of papers published on the databases Pubmed, Web of Science, and Lilacs, with no restriction regarding period of publication, using the following combinations: abdominal fat or overweight or obesity and waist-to-height ratio or waist height or waist ht or WHtR or waist to stature ratio or wst stature or WSR or stature and girth. Sixteen papers were selected, most of which with high methodological quality. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves was the validity measure explored in 13 papers, followed by sensitivity and specificity measures. In all studies, the body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) received special attention for analysis along with WHtR. Five manuscripts showed evidence of WHtR being the best anthropometric index when used alone, four showed that both WHtR and WC had the best discriminatory power in predicting cardiovascular risk factors compared to the other indices, and two ranked WHtR at the same performance level as waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and BMI. An association was shown of the obesity assessed by WHtR in predicting risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes compared to other anthropometric parameters.

  19. Appraising bacterial strains for rapid BOD sensing--an empirical test to identify bacterial strains capable of reliably predicting real effluent BODs.

    PubMed

    Webber, Judith B; Noonan, Mike; Pasco, Neil F; Hay, Joanne M

    2011-01-01

    The measured response of rapid biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) biosensors is often not identical to those measured using the conventional 5-day BOD assay. This paper highlights the efficacy of using both glucose-glutamic acid (GGA) and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) BOD standards as a rapid screen for microorganisms most likely to reliably predict real effluent BODs when used in rapid BOD devices. Using these two synthetic BOD standards, a microorganism was identified that produced comparable BOD response profiles for two assays, the MICREDOX® assay and the conventional 5-day BOD(5) test. A factorial experimental design systematically evaluated the impact of four factors (microbial strain, growth media composition, media strength, and microbial growth phase) on the BOD response profiles using GGA and OECD synthetic standard substrates. An outlier was identified that showed an improved correlation between the MICREDOX® BOD (BOD(sens)) and BOD(5) assays for both the synthetic standards and for real wastewater samples. Microbial strain was the dominant factor influencing BOD(sens) values, with Arthrobacter globiformis single cultures clearly demonstrating superior rapid BOD(sens) response profiles for both synthetic and real waste samples. It was the only microorganism to approach the BOD(5) response for the OECD substrate (171 mg O(2)L(-1)), and also reported BOD values for real waste samples that were comparable to those produced by the BOD(5) test, including discriminating between filtered and unfiltered samples.

  20. Prenatal arsenic exposure and the epigenome: identifying sites of 5-methylcytosine alterations that predict functional changes in gene expression in newborn cord blood and subsequent birth outcomes.

    PubMed

    Rojas, Daniel; Rager, Julia E; Smeester, Lisa; Bailey, Kathryn A; Drobná, Zuzana; Rubio-Andrade, Marisela; Stýblo, Miroslav; García-Vargas, Gonzalo; Fry, Rebecca C

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) is detrimental to the health of newborns and increases the risk of disease development later in life. Here we examined a subset of newborn cord blood leukocyte samples collected from subjects enrolled in the Biomarkers of Exposure to ARsenic (BEAR) pregnancy cohort in Gómez Palacio, Mexico, who were exposed to a range of drinking water arsenic concentrations (0.456-236 µg/l). Changes in iAs-associated DNA 5-methylcytosine methylation were assessed across 424,935 CpG sites representing 18,761 genes and compared with corresponding mRNA expression levels and birth outcomes. In the context of arsenic exposure, a total of 2919 genes were identified with iAs-associated differences in DNA methylation. Site-specific analyses identified DNA methylation changes that were most predictive of gene expression levels where CpG methylation within CpG islands positioned within the first exon, the 5' untranslated region and 200 bp upstream of the transcription start site yielded the most significant association with gene expression levels. A set of 16 genes was identified with correlated iAs-associated changes in DNA methylation and mRNA expression and all were highly enriched for binding sites of the early growth response (EGR) and CCCTC-binding factor (CTCF) transcription factors. Furthermore, DNA methylation levels of 7 of these genes were associated with differences in birth outcomes including gestational age and head circumference.These data highlight the complex interplay between DNA methylation, functional changes in gene expression and health outcomes and underscore the need for functional analyses coupled to epigenetic assessments.

  1. Prenatal arsenic exposure and the epigenome: identifying sites of 5-methylcytosine alterations that predict functional changes in gene expression in newborn cord blood and subsequent birth outcomes.

    PubMed

    Rojas, Daniel; Rager, Julia E; Smeester, Lisa; Bailey, Kathryn A; Drobná, Zuzana; Rubio-Andrade, Marisela; Stýblo, Miroslav; García-Vargas, Gonzalo; Fry, Rebecca C

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) is detrimental to the health of newborns and increases the risk of disease development later in life. Here we examined a subset of newborn cord blood leukocyte samples collected from subjects enrolled in the Biomarkers of Exposure to ARsenic (BEAR) pregnancy cohort in Gómez Palacio, Mexico, who were exposed to a range of drinking water arsenic concentrations (0.456-236 µg/l). Changes in iAs-associated DNA 5-methylcytosine methylation were assessed across 424,935 CpG sites representing 18,761 genes and compared with corresponding mRNA expression levels and birth outcomes. In the context of arsenic exposure, a total of 2919 genes were identified with iAs-associated differences in DNA methylation. Site-specific analyses identified DNA methylation changes that were most predictive of gene expression levels where CpG methylation within CpG islands positioned within the first exon, the 5' untranslated region and 200 bp upstream of the transcription start site yielded the most significant association with gene expression levels. A set of 16 genes was identified with correlated iAs-associated changes in DNA methylation and mRNA expression and all were highly enriched for binding sites of the early growth response (EGR) and CCCTC-binding factor (CTCF) transcription factors. Furthermore, DNA methylation levels of 7 of these genes were associated with differences in birth outcomes including gestational age and head circumference.These data highlight the complex interplay between DNA methylation, functional changes in gene expression and health outcomes and underscore the need for functional analyses coupled to epigenetic assessments. PMID:25304211

  2. Prenatal Arsenic Exposure and the Epigenome: Identifying Sites of 5-methylcytosine Alterations that Predict Functional Changes in Gene Expression in Newborn Cord Blood and Subsequent Birth Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Rojas, Daniel; Rager, Julia E.; Smeester, Lisa; Bailey, Kathryn A.; Drobná, Zuzana; Rubio-Andrade, Marisela; Stýblo, Miroslav; García-Vargas, Gonzalo; Fry, Rebecca C.

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) is detrimental to the health of newborns and increases the risk of disease development later in life. Here we examined a subset of newborn cord blood leukocyte samples collected from subjects enrolled in the Biomarkers of Exposure to ARsenic (BEAR) pregnancy cohort in Gómez Palacio, Mexico, who were exposed to a range of drinking water arsenic concentrations (0.456–236 µg/l). Changes in iAs-associated DNA 5-methylcytosine methylation were assessed across 424 935 CpG sites representing 18 761 genes and compared with corresponding mRNA expression levels and birth outcomes. In the context of arsenic exposure, a total of 2919 genes were identified with iAs-associated differences in DNA methylation. Site-specific analyses identified DNA methylation changes that were most predictive of gene expression levels where CpG methylation within CpG islands positioned within the first exon, the 5′ untranslated region and 200 bp upstream of the transcription start site yielded the most significant association with gene expression levels. A set of 16 genes was identified with correlated iAs-associated changes in DNA methylation and mRNA expression and all were highly enriched for binding sites of the early growth response (EGR) and CCCTC-binding factor (CTCF) transcription factors. Furthermore, DNA methylation levels of 7 of these genes were associated with differences in birth outcomes including gestational age and head circumference.These data highlight the complex interplay between DNA methylation, functional changes in gene expression and health outcomes and underscore the need for functional analyses coupled to epigenetic assessments. PMID:25304211

  3. Validity of Surrogate Measures of Alcohol Involvement When Applied to Nonfatal Crashes

    PubMed Central

    Voas, Robert B.; Romano, Eduardo; Peck, Raymond

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1970s, nighttime fatal crashes have been used as a surrogate measure for alcohol-related fatalities for crashes for which more direct measures were absent. The validity of this approach was confirmed in 1985, but has not been re-evaluated since. Although this measure has also been applied to identify alcohol involvement in nonfatal crashes, its validity when applied to non-fatal cases has never been determined. The objective of this study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using nighttime crashes as surrogate measures for alcohol impairment when applied to fatal and nonfatal injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes. To do so, we used data from a crash-control design study collected at the roadside in two U.S. states between 1997 and 1999, as well as from the 1997–1999, and 2004–2006 Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The outcome of this study confirms the validity of using nighttime crashes as a surrogate measure for alcohol-related fatalities and supports the use of after-midnight crashes for measuring alcohol involvement in nonfatal and PDO crashes when the number of late-night crashes permits. PMID:19393802

  4. Concentration and retention of Toxoplasma gondii surrogates from seawater by red abalone (Haliotis rufescens)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schott, Kristen C; Krusor, Colin; Tinker, M. Tim; Moore, James G.; Conrad, Patricia A.; Shapiro, Karen

    2016-01-01

    Small marine snails and abalone have been identified as high- and low-risk prey items, respectively, for exposure of threatened southern sea otters to Toxoplasma gondii, a zoonotic parasite that can cause fatal encephalitis in animals and humans. While recent work has characterized snails as paratenic hosts for T. gondii, the ability of abalone to vector the parasite has not been evaluated. To further elucidate why abalone predation may be protective against T. gondii exposure, this study aimed to determine whether: (1) abalone are physiologically capable of acquiring T. gondii; and (2) abalone and snails differ in their ability to concentrate and retain the parasite. Abalone were exposed to T. gondii surrogate microspheres for 24 h, and fecal samples were examined for 2 weeks following exposure. Concentration of surrogates was 2–3 orders of magnitude greater in abalone feces than in the spiked seawater, and excretion of surrogates continued for 14 days post-exposure. These results indicate that, physiologically, abalone and snails can equally vector T. gondii as paratenic hosts. Reduced risk of T. gondii infection in abalone-specializing otters may therefore result from abalone's high nutritional value, which implies otters must consume fewer animals to meet their caloric needs.

  5. Surrogate ratio methodology for the indirect determination of neutron capture cross sections

    SciTech Connect

    Goldblum, B. L.; Prussin, S. G.; Bernstein, L. A.; Younes, W.; Guttormsen, M.; Nyhus, H. T.

    2010-05-15

    The relative gamma-decay probabilities of the {sup 162}Dy to {sup 161}Dy and {sup 162}Dy to {sup 164}Dy residual nuclei, produced using light-ion-induced direct reactions, were measured as a function of excitation energy using the CACTUS array at the Oslo Cyclotron Laboratory. The external surrogate ratio method (SRM) was used to convert these relative gamma-decay probabilities into the {sup 161}Dy(n,gamma) cross section in an equivalent neutron energy range of 130-560 keV. The directly measured {sup 161}Dy(n,gamma) cross section, obtained from the Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF/B-VII.0), was compared to the experimentally determined surrogate {sup 161}Dy(n,gamma) cross section obtained using compound-nucleus pairs with both similar ({sup 162}Dy to {sup 164}Dy) and dissimilar ({sup 162}Dy to {sup 161}Dy) nuclear structures. A gamma-ray energy threshold was identified, based upon pairing gap parameters, that provides a first-order correction to the statistical gamma-ray tagging approach and improves the agreement between the surrogate cross-section data and the evaluated result.

  6. Surrogate ratio methodology for the indirect determination of neutron capture cross sections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldblum, B. L.; Prussin, S. G.; Bernstein, L. A.; Younes, W.; Guttormsen, M.; Nyhus, H. T.

    2010-05-01

    The relative γ-decay probabilities of the Dy162 to Dy161 and Dy162 to Dy164 residual nuclei, produced using light-ion-induced direct reactions, were measured as a function of excitation energy using the CACTUS array at the Oslo Cyclotron Laboratory. The external surrogate ratio method (SRM) was used to convert these relative γ-decay probabilities into the Dy161(n,γ) cross section in an equivalent neutron energy range of 130-560 keV. The directly measured Dy161(n,γ) cross section, obtained from the Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF/B-VII.0), was compared to the experimentally determined surrogate Dy161(n,γ) cross section obtained using compound-nucleus pairs with both similar (Dy162 to Dy164) and dissimilar (Dy162 to Dy161) nuclear structures. A γ-ray energy threshold was identified, based upon pairing gap parameters, that provides a first-order correction to the statistical γ-ray tagging approach and improves the agreement between the surrogate cross-section data and the evaluated result.

  7. Gamma-ray Sptectrometric Characterization of Overpacked CC 104/107 RH-TRU Wastes: Surrogate Tests

    SciTech Connect

    Hartwell, John Kelvin; Mc Ilwain, Michael Edward; Klann, R. T.

    2000-04-01

    Development of the gamma-ray spectrometric technique termed GSAK (Gamma-Ray Spectrometry with Acceptable Knowledge) for the characterization of CC104/107 remote-handled transuranic (RH-TRU) wastes continued this year. Proof-of-principle measurements have been completed on the surrogate RH-TRU waste drums configured earlier this year. The GSAK technique uses conventional gamma-ray spectrometry to quantify the detectable fission product content of overpacked RH-TRU drums. These results are then coupled with the inventory report to characterize the waste drum content. The inventory report is based on process knowledge of the waste drum loading and calculations of the isotopic distribution in the spent fuel examined to generate the drummed wastes. Three RH-TRU surrogate drums were configured with encapsulated EBR-II driver fuel rod segments arranged in the surrogate drum assemblies. Segment-specific inventory calculations initially specified the radionuclide content of the fuel segments and thus the surrogate drums. Radiochemical assays performed on representative fuel element segments identified a problem in the accuracy of some of the fission and activation product inventory values and provided a basis for adjustment of the specified surrogate drum inventories. The three waste drum surrogates, contained within their 8.9 cm (3.5 inch) thick steel overpacks, were analyzed by gamma-ray spectrometry at the TREAT facility at Argonne National Laboratory-West. Seven fission and activation product radionuclides (54Mn, 60Co, 125Sb, 134Cs, 137Cs, 144CePr, and 154Eu) were reliably detected. The gamma-ray spectral accuracy was very good. In all cases, a two-sigma error bar constructed about the measured value included the actual drum activity.

  8. Gamma-Ray Spectrometric Characterization of Overpacked CC104/107 RH-TRU Wastes: Surrogate Tests

    SciTech Connect

    J. K. Hartwell; R. T. Klann; M. E. McIlwain

    2000-05-01

    Development of the gamma-ray spectrometric technique termed GSAK (Gamma-Ray Spectrometry with Acceptable Knowledge) for the characterization of CC104/107 remote-handled transuranic (RH-TRU) wastes continued this year. Proof-of-principle measurements have been completed on the surrogate RH-TRU waste drums configured earlier this year. The GSAK technique uses conventional gamma-ray spectrometry to quantify the detectable fission product content of overpacked RH-TRU drums. These results are then coupled with the inventory report to characterize the waste drum content. The inventory report is based on process knowledge of the waste drum loading and calculations of the isotopic distribution in the spent fuel examined to generate the drummed wastes. Three RH-TRU surrogate drums were configured with encapsulated EBR-II driver fuel rod segments arranged in the surrogate drum assemblies. Segment-specific inventory calculations initially specified the radionuclide content of the fuel segments and thus the surrogate drums. Radiochemical assays performed on representative fuel element segments identified a problem in the accuracy of some of the fission and activation product inventory values and provided a basis for adjustment of the specified surrogate drum inventories. The three waste drum surrogates, contained within their 8.9 cm (3.5 inch) thick steel overpacks, were analyzed by gamma-ray spectrometry at the TREAT facility at Argonne National Laboratory-West. Seven fission and activation product radionuclides ({sup 54}Mn, {sup 60}Co, {sup 125}Sb, {sup 134}Cs, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 144}CePr, and {sup 154}Eu) were reliably detected. The gamma-ray spectral accuracy was very good. In all cases, a two-sigma error bar constructed about the measured value included the actual drum activity.

  9. Parameter identification and calibration of the Xin'anjiang model using the surrogate modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Yan; Song, Xiaomeng; Zhang, Jianyun; Kong, Fanzhe; Ma, Guangwen

    2014-06-01

    Practical experience has demonstrated that single objective functions, no matter how carefully chosen, prove to be inadequate in providing proper measurements for all of the characteristics of the observed data. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define multiple fitting criteria that measure different aspects of system behavior, and to use multi-criteria optimization to identify non-dominated optimal solutions. Unfortunately, these analyses require running original simulation models thousands of times. As such, they demand prohibitively large computational budgets. As a result, surrogate models have been used in combination with a variety of multi-objective optimization algorithms to approximate the true Pareto-front within limited evaluations for the original model. In this study, multi-objective optimization based on surrogate modeling (multivariate adaptive regression splines, MARS) for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Xin'anjiang model, XAJ) was proposed. Taking the Yanduhe basin of Three Gorges in the upper stream of the Yangtze River in China as a case study, three evaluation criteria were selected to quantify the goodness-of-fit of observations against calculated values from the simulation model. The three criteria chosen were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, the relative error of peak flow, and runoff volume (REPF and RERV). The efficacy of this method is demonstrated on the calibration of the XAJ model. Compared to the single objective optimization results, it was indicated that the multi-objective optimization method can infer the most probable parameter set. The results also demonstrate that the use of surrogate-modeling enables optimization that is much more efficient; and the total computational cost is reduced by about 92.5%, compared to optimization without using surrogate modeling. The results obtained with the proposed method support the feasibility of applying parameter optimization to computationally intensive simulation

  10. Early analysis of surrogate endpoints for metastatic melanoma in immune checkpoint inhibitor trials

    PubMed Central

    Petrelli, Fausto; Coinu, Andrea; Cabiddu, Mary; Borgonovo, Karen; Ghilardi, Mara; Lonati, Veronica; Barni, Sandro

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Recent major phase III trials led to the approval of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ipilimumab, pembrolizumab, and nivolumab) in metastatic malignant melanoma (MM). We aim to assess whether median progression-free survival, and 1 and 2-year overall survival (OS) rates are reliable surrogate endpoints for median OS through a meta-analysis of published trials involving immunotherapy. A systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and SCOPUS of published phase II to III trials with immunotherapy as the treatment for MM was conducted. Adjusted weighted linear regression was used to calculate Pearson correlations (R) between surrogates and median OS, and between treatment effects on surrogates and median OS. A total of 13 studies involving 3373 patients with MM were identified. The correlation of progression-free survival with OS was not significant (R = 0.45, P = .11). Conversely, the correlation between 1-year OS and median OS was very strong (R = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84–0.96, P < .00001), as was the correlation between 2-year OS and OS (R = 0.79, 95% CI 0.51–0.91, P = .0001). The correlation between the treatment effects on 1-year OS and OS was also significant (R = −0.86, 95% CI −0.3 to 0.97, P = .01). Similar results were obtained for 2-year OS. According to the available study data, 1-year OS rate could be regarded as a potential surrogate for median OS in novel immunotherapy trials of metastatic MM. Waiting for ongoing studies (e.g., pembrolizumab), we suggest that this intermediate endpoint could be considered as a potential primary endpoint in future clinical trials. PMID:27368007

  11. Proteinuria as a surrogate outcome in CKD: report of a scientific workshop sponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and the US Food and Drug Administration.

    PubMed

    Levey, Andrew S; Cattran, Daniel; Friedman, Aaron; Miller, W Greg; Sedor, John; Tuttle, Katherine; Kasiske, Bertram; Hostetter, Thomas

    2009-08-01

    Changes in proteinuria have been suggested as a surrogate outcome for kidney disease progression to facilitate the conduct of clinical trials. This report summarizes a workshop sponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) with the following goals: (1) to evaluate the strengths and limitations of criteria for assessment of proteinuria as a potential surrogate end point for clinical trials in chronic kidney disease (CKD), (2) to explore the strengths and limitations of available data for proteinuria as a potential surrogate end point, and (3) to delineate what more needs to be done to evaluate proteinuria as a potential surrogate end point. We review the importance of proteinuria in CKD, including the conceptual model for CKD, measurement of proteinuria and albuminuria, and epidemiological characteristics of albuminuria in the United States. We discuss surrogate end points in clinical trials of drug therapy, including criteria for drug approval, the definition of a surrogate end point, and criteria for evaluation of surrogacy based on biological plausibility, epidemiological characteristics, and clinical trials. Next, the report summarizes data for proteinuria as a potential surrogate outcome in 3 broad clinical areas: early diabetic kidney disease, nephrotic syndrome, and diseases with mild to moderate proteinuria. We conclude with a synthesis of data and recommendations for further research. At the present time, there appears to be sufficient evidence to recommend changes in proteinuria as a surrogate for kidney disease progression in only selected circumstances. Further research is needed to define additional contexts in which changes in proteinuria can be expected to predict treatment effect. We recommend collaboration among many groups, including academia, industry, the FDA, and the National Institutes of Health, to share data from past and future studies. PMID:19577347

  12. Substituted quinoline quinones as surrogates for the PQQ cofactor: an electrochemical and computational study.

    PubMed

    Dorfner, Walter L; Carroll, Patrick J; Schelter, Eric J

    2015-04-17

    Pyrroloquinoline quinones (PQQ) are important cofactors that shuttle redox equivalents in diverse metalloproteins. Quinoline 7,8-quinones have been synthesized and characterized as surrogates for PQQ to elucidate redox energetics within metalloenzyme active sites. The quinoline 7,8-quinones were accessed using polymer-supported iodoxybenzoic acid and the compounds evaluated using solution electrochemistry. Together with a family of quinones, the products were evaluated computationally and used to generate a predictive correlation between a computed ΔG and the experimental reduction potentials.

  13. Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Landers, Mark N.

    2015-10-01

    The regression models created in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

  14. Use of SDWBA predictions for acoustic volume backscattering and the Self-Organizing Map to discern frequencies identifying Meganyctiphanes norvegica from mesopelagic fish species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña, M.; Calise, L.

    2016-04-01

    To acoustically assess the biomass of multiple species or taxa within a survey region, the volume backscatter data should be apportioned to the constituent sound scatterers. Typically, measured backscatter is attributed to certain species using predictions at different frequencies, mostly based on the difference in scattering at the frequencies of 38 and 120 kHz (dual frequency method). We used the full version of the stochastic distortedwave Born approximation (SDWBA) model to predict backscatter spectra for Meganyctiphanes norvegica and to explore the sensitivities of ΔMVBS to the model parameters, e.g. acoustic frequency and incidence angle, and animal density and sound speed contrast, length, and shape. The orientation is almost the unique parameter responsible for variation, with fatness affecting longer lengths. We present a summary of ΔMVBS that can serve as the basis for identification algorithms. Next, we simulate the scenario encountered in the Balearic Sea (western Mediterranean) where Northern krill are mixed with mesopelagic fish species (bristlemouths and lanternfishes), which are modeled with a prolate spheroid model. Simulated numerical data are employed to emulate the discrimination process with the most common identification techniques and typical survey frequencies. The importance of using density-independent techniques for acoustic classification is highlighted. Finally, an unsupervised neural network, the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), is used to cluster these theoretical data and identify the frequencies that provide, in this case, the most classification potential. The simulation results confirm that pairs of frequencies spanning the Rayleigh and geometric scattering regimes of the targets are the most useful for clustering; a minimum of four frequencies are necessary to separate the three species, while three frequencies are able to differentiate krill from mesopelagic fish species.

  15. Establishing a theory for deuteron-induced surrogate reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potel, G.; Nunes, F. M.; Thompson, I. J.

    2015-09-01

    Background: Deuteron-induced reactions serve as surrogates for neutron capture into compound states. Although these reactions are of great applicability, no theoretical efforts have been invested in this direction over the last decade. Purpose: The goal of this work is to establish on firm grounds a theory for deuteron-induced neutron-capture reactions. This includes formulating elastic and inelastic breakup in a consistent manner. Method: We describe this process both in post- and prior-form distorted wave Born approximation following previous works and discuss the differences in the formulation. While the convergence issues arising in the post formulation can be overcome in the prior formulation, in this case one still needs to take into account additional terms due to nonorthogonality. Results: We apply our method to the 93Nb(d ,p )X at Ed=15 and 25 MeV and are able to obtain a good description of the data. We look at the various partial wave contributions, as well as elastic versus inelastic contributions. We also connect our formulation with transfer to neutron bound states. Conclusions: Our calculations demonstrate that the nonorthogonality term arising in the prior formulation is significant and is at the heart of the long-standing controversy between the post and the prior formulations of the theory. We also show that the cross sections for these reactions are angular-momentum dependent and therefore the commonly used Weisskopf limit is inadequate. Finally, we make important predictions for the relative contributions of elastic breakup and nonelastic breakup and call for elastic-breakup measurements to further constrain our model.

  16. Establishing a theory for deuteron induced surrogate reactions

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Potel, G; Nunes, F M; Thompson, I J

    2015-09-18

    Background: Deuteron-induced reactions serve as surrogates for neutron capture into compound states. Although these reactions are of great applicability, no theoretical efforts have been invested in this direction over the last decade. Purpose: The goal of this work is to establish on firm grounds a theory for deuteron-induced neutron-capture reactions. This includes formulating elastic and inelastic breakup in a consistent manner. Method: We describe this process both in post- and prior-form distorted wave Born approximation following previous works and discuss the differences in the formulation. While the convergence issues arising in the post formulation can be overcome in the priormore » formulation, in this case one still needs to take into account additional terms due to nonorthogonality. Results: We apply our method to the Nb93(d,p)X at Ed=15 and 25 MeV and are able to obtain a good description of the data. We then look at the various partial wave contributions, as well as elastic versus inelastic contributions. We also connect our formulation with transfer to neutron bound states.Conclusions: Our calculations demonstrate that the nonorthogonality term arising in the prior formulation is significant and is at the heart of the long-standing controversy between the post and the prior formulations of the theory. We also show that the cross sections for these reactions are angular-momentum dependent and therefore the commonly used Weisskopf limit is inadequate. We finally make important predictions for the relative contributions of elastic breakup and nonelastic breakup and call for elastic-breakup measurements to further constrain our model.« less

  17. Establishing a theory for deuteron induced surrogate reactions

    SciTech Connect

    Potel, G; Nunes, F M; Thompson, I J

    2015-09-18

    Background: Deuteron-induced reactions serve as surrogates for neutron capture into compound states. Although these reactions are of great applicability, no theoretical efforts have been invested in this direction over the last decade. Purpose: The goal of this work is to establish on firm grounds a theory for deuteron-induced neutron-capture reactions. This includes formulating elastic and inelastic breakup in a consistent manner. Method: We describe this process both in post- and prior-form distorted wave Born approximation following previous works and discuss the differences in the formulation. While the convergence issues arising in the post formulation can be overcome in the prior formulation, in this case one still needs to take into account additional terms due to nonorthogonality. Results: We apply our method to the Nb93(d,p)X at Ed=15 and 25 MeV and are able to obtain a good description of the data. We then look at the various partial wave contributions, as well as elastic versus inelastic contributions. We also connect our formulation with transfer to neutron bound states.Conclusions: Our calculations demonstrate that the nonorthogonality term arising in the prior formulation is significant and is at the heart of the long-standing controversy between the post and the prior formulations of the theory. We also show that the cross sections for these reactions are angular-momentum dependent and therefore the commonly used Weisskopf limit is inadequate. We finally make important predictions for the relative contributions of elastic breakup and nonelastic breakup and call for elastic-breakup measurements to further constrain our model.

  18. Efficient Calibration/Uncertainty Analysis Using Paired Complex/Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Burrows, Wesley; Doherty, John

    2015-01-01

    The use of detailed groundwater models to simulate complex environmental processes can be hampered by (1) long run-times and (2) a penchant for solution convergence problems. Collectively, these can undermine the ability of a modeler to reduce and quantify predictive uncertainty, and therefore limit the use of such detailed models in the decision-making context. We explain and demonstrate a novel approach to calibration and the exploration of posterior predictive uncertainty, of a complex model, that can overcome these problems in many modelling contexts. The methodology relies on conjunctive use of a simplified surrogate version of the complex model in combination with the complex model itself. The methodology employs gradient-based subspace analysis and is thus readily adapted for use in highly parameterized contexts. In its most basic form, one or more surrogate models are used for calculation of the partial derivatives that collectively comprise the Jacobian matrix. Meanwhile, testing of parameter upgrades and the making of predictions is done by the original complex model. The methodology is demonstrated using a density-dependent seawater intrusion model in which the model domain is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution of hydraulic conductivity.

  19. Forward scatter propagation path loss testing using surrogate terrain in the 100 to 1500 MHz region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Louis L.

    1989-09-01

    Numerous path loss calculation models were developed for links employing forward scatter propagation. Variances in propagation loss prediction between these models and the loss experienced when a link is actually established arise because of the manner in which the models represent the large variety of absorbers and reflectors present in the actual terrain. A method to enrich a model with actual measurements that produce a more accurate method of predicting propagation loss is described. The method is based upon selecting a surrogate section of terrain for the actual terrain over which a propagation loss determination is desired, then measuring the forward scatter loss variation through this surrogate terrain. The loss value is then used as a factor in the simplified mathematical model used for the desired prediction. Examples are given of the use of this technique to assist in the design and implementation of a wide area VHF/UHF radio network serving a large fleet of mobile units. Through use of this method, one learns to judge when existing models may be used and when measurements are indicated, how to estimate the effects of different types of terrain and foliage upon propagation, and how these effects change in different seasons of the year.

  20. Surrogate Model Development for Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines

    SciTech Connect

    Anand, Krishnasamy; Ra, youngchul; Reitz, Rolf; Bunting, Bruce G

    2011-01-01

    The fuels used in internal-combustion engines are complex mixtures of a multitude of different types of hydrocarbon species. Attempting numerical simulations of combustion of real fuels with all of the hydrocarbon species included is highly unrealistic. Thus, a surrogate model approach is generally adopted, which involves choosing a few representative hydrocarbon species whose overall behavior mimics the characteristics of the target fuel. The present study proposes surrogate models for the nine fuels for advanced combustion engines (FACE) that have been developed for studying low-emission, high-efficiency advanced diesel engine concepts. The surrogate compositions for the fuels are arrived at by simulating their distillation profiles to within a maximum absolute error of 4% using a discrete multi-component (DMC) fuel model that has been incorporated in the multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, KIVA-ERC-CHEMKIN. The simulated surrogate compositions cover the range and measured concentrations of the various hydrocarbon classes present in the fuels. The fidelity of the surrogate fuel models is judged on the basis of matching their specific gravity, lower heating value, hydrogen/carbon (H/C) ratio, cetane number, and cetane index with the measured data for all nine FACE fuels.

  1. General Constraints on Cross Sections Deduced from Surrogate Reactions

    SciTech Connect

    Younes, W

    2003-08-14

    Cross sections that cannot be measured in the laboratory, e.g. because the target lifetime is too short, can be inferred indirectly from a different reaction forming the same compound system, but with a more accessible beam/target combination (the ''surrogate-reaction'' technique). The reactions share the same compound system and a common decay mechanism, but they involve different formation processes. Therefore, an implicit constraint is imposed on the inferred cross section deduced from the measured surrogate-reaction data, through the common decay mechanism. In this paper, the mathematical consequences of this implicit constraint are investigated. General formulas are derived from upper and lower bounds on the inferred cross section, estimated from surrogate data in a procedure which does not require any modeling of the common decay process. As an example, the formulas developed here are applied to the case of the {sup 235}U(n,f) cross section, deduced from {sup 234}U(t,pf) surrogate data. The calculated bounds are not very tight in this particular case. However, by introducing a few qualitative assumptions about the physics of the fission process, meaningful bounds on the deduced cross section are obtained. Upper and lower limits for the cross-section ratio of the (n,f) reaction on the {sup 235}U isomer at E{sub x} = 77 eV relative to the (n,f) reaction on the ground state are also calculated. The generalization of this technique to other surrogate reactions is discussed.

  2. Uncertainty quantification for accident management using ACE surrogates

    SciTech Connect

    Varuttamaseni, A.; Lee, J. C.; Youngblood, R. W.

    2012-07-01

    The alternating conditional expectation (ACE) regression method is used to generate RELAP5 surrogates which are then used to determine the distribution of the peak clad temperature (PCT) during the loss of feedwater accident coupled with a subsequent initiation of the feed and bleed (F and B) operation in the Zion-1 nuclear power plant. The construction of the surrogates assumes conditional independence relations among key reactor parameters. The choice of parameters to model is based on the macroscopic balance statements governing the behavior of the reactor. The peak clad temperature is calculated based on the independent variables that are known to be important in determining the success of the F and B operation. The relationship between these independent variables and the plant parameters such as coolant pressure and temperature is represented by surrogates that are constructed based on 45 RELAP5 cases. The time-dependent PCT for different values of F and B parameters is calculated by sampling the independent variables from their probability distributions and propagating the information through two layers of surrogates. The results of our analysis show that the ACE surrogates are able to satisfactorily reproduce the behavior of the plant parameters even though a quasi-static assumption is primarily used in their construction. The PCT is found to be lower in cases where the F and B operation is initiated, compared to the case without F and B, regardless of the F and B parameters used. (authors)

  3. A surprising cross-species conservation in the genomic landscape of mouse and human oral cancer identifies a transcriptional signature predicting metastatic disease

    PubMed Central

    Onken, Michael D.; Winkler, Ashley E.; Kanchi, Krishna-Latha; Chalivendra, Varun; Law, Jonathan H.; Rickert, Charles G.; Kallogjeri, Dorina; Judd, Nancy P.; Dunn, Gavin P.; Piccirillo, Jay F.; Lewis, James S.; Mardis, Elaine R.; Uppaluri, Ravindra

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Improved understanding of the molecular basis underlying oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) aggressive growth has significant clinical implications. Herein, cross-species genomic comparison of carcinogen-induced murine and human OSCCs with indolent or metastatic growth yielded results with surprising translational relevance. Experimental Design Murine OSCC cell lines were subjected to next-generation sequencing (NGS) to define their mutational landscape, to define novel candidate cancer genes and to assess for parallels with known drivers in human OSCC. Expression arrays identified a mouse metastasis signature and we assessed its representation in 4 independent human datasets comprising 324 patients using weighted voting and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to stratify outcomes. A qRT-PCR assay based on the mouse signature coupled to a machine-learning algorithm was developed and used to stratify an independent set of 31 patients with respect to metastatic lymphadenopathy. Results NGS revealed conservation of human driver pathway mutations in mouse OSCC including in Trp53, MAPK, PI3K, NOTCH, JAK/STAT and FAT1–4. Moreover, comparative analysis between The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and mouse samples defined AKAP9, MED12L and MYH6 as novel putative cancer genes. Expression analysis identified a transcriptional signature predicting aggressiveness and clinical outcomes, which were validated in 4 independent human OSCC datasets. Finally, we harnessed the translational potential of this signature by creating a clinically feasible assay that stratified OSCC patients with a 93.5% accuracy. Conclusions These data demonstrate surprising cross-species genomic conservation that has translational relevance for human oral squamous cell cancer. PMID:24668645

  4. Limitations in dose-response and surrogate species methodologies for risk assessment of Cry toxins on arthropod natural enemies.

    PubMed

    Paula, Débora P; Andow, David A; Bellinati, André; Timbó, Renata Velozo; Souza, Lucas M; Pires, Carmen S S; Sujii, Edison R

    2016-04-01

    Dose-response assays and surrogate species are standard methods for risk analysis for environmental chemicals. These assume that individuals within a species have unimodal responses and that a surrogate species can predict responses of other related taxa. We exposed immature individuals of closely related aphidophagous coccinellid predators, Cycloneda sanguinea and Harmonia axyridis, to Cry1Ac and Cry1F toxins through uniform and constant artificial tritrophic exposure through Myzus persicae aphids. Both toxins were detected in coccinellid pupae, with individual and interspecific variation. Uptake was significantly higher in H. axyridis than in C. sanguinea, both in the proportion of individuals and the concentrations per individual. We also observed bimodal uptake of the Cry toxins by H. axyridis, which indicated that some individuals had low bioaccumulation and some had high bioaccumulation. This suggests that standard dose-response assays need to be interpreted with caution and future assays should examine the modality of the responses. In addition, the similarity in the biological effects of the Cry toxins in the two predators was due to different biological exposure mechanisms. The majority of H. axyridis were exposed both internally and in the gut, while C. sanguinea was exposed primarily in the gut. Thus, despite their close phylogenetic relatedness, these species would not be good surrogates for each other and the surrogate species methodology should be tested more rigorously. PMID:26846212

  5. Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We

  6. A tree-structured crash surrogate measure for freeways.

    PubMed

    Kuang, Yan; Qu, Xiaobo; Wang, Shuaian

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to define and estimate a surrogate measure. By imposing a hypothetical disturbance to the leading vehicle, the following vehicle's action is represented as a probabilistic causal model. After that, a tree is built to describe the eight possible conflict types under the model. The surrogate measure, named Aggregated Crash Index (ACI), is thus proposed to measure the crash risk. This index reflects the accommodability of freeway traffic state to a traffic disturbance. We further apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway section of Pacific Motorway, Australia. The results show that the proposed indicator outperforms the three traditional crash surrogate measures (i.e., Time to Collision, Proportion of Stopping Distance, and Crash Potential Index) in representing rear-end crash risks. The applications of this measure are also discussed.

  7. Surrogate decision making: reconciling ethical theory and clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Berger, Jeffrey T; DeRenzo, Evan G; Schwartz, Jack

    2008-07-01

    The care of adult patients without decision-making abilities is a routine part of medical practice. Decisions for these patients are typically made by surrogates according to a process governed by a hierarchy of 3 distinct decision-making standards: patients' known wishes, substituted judgments, and best interests. Although this framework offers some guidance, it does not readily incorporate many important considerations of patients and families and does not account for the ways in which many patients and surrogates prefer to make decisions. In this article, the authors review the research on surrogate decision making, compare it with normative standards, and offer ways in which the 2 can be reconciled for the patient's benefit.

  8. Love as a regulative ideal in surrogate decision making.

    PubMed

    Stonestreet, Erica Lucast

    2014-10-01

    This discussion aims to give a normative theoretical basis for a "best judgment" model of surrogate decision making rooted in a regulative ideal of love. Currently, there are two basic models of surrogate decision making for incompetent patients: the "substituted judgment" model and the "best interests" model. The former draws on the value of autonomy and responds with respect; the latter draws on the value of welfare and responds with beneficence. It can be difficult to determine which of these two models is more appropriate for a given patient, and both approaches may seem inadequate for a surrogate who loves the patient. The proposed "best judgment" model effectively draws on the values incorporated in each of the traditional standards, but does so because these values are important to someone who loves a patient, since love responds to the patient as the specific person she is.

  9. Mother-daughter in vitro fertilization triplet surrogate pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Michelow, M C; Bernstein, J; Jacobson, M J; McLoughlin, J L; Rubenstein, D; Hacking, A I; Preddy, S; Van der Wat, I J

    1988-02-01

    A successful triplet pregnancy has been established in a surrogate gestational mother following the transfer of five embryos fertilized in vitro. The oocytes were donated by her biological daughter, and the sperm obtained from the daughter's husband. The daughter's infertility followed a total abdominal hysterectomy performed for a postpartum hemorrhage as a result of a placenta accreta. Synchronization of both their menstrual cycles was obtained using oral contraceptive suppression for 2 months, followed by stimulation of both the surrogate gestational mother and her daughter such that embryo transfer would occur at least 48 hr after the surrogate gestational mother's own ovulation. This case raises a number of medical, social, psychological, and ethical issues. PMID:3367072

  10. Is (d,p{gamma}) a surrogate for neutron capture?

    SciTech Connect

    Hatarik, R.; Cizewski, J. A.; O'Malley, P. D.; Bernstein, L. A.; Burke, J. T.; Lesher, S. R.; Gibelin, J. D.; Phair, L. W.; Swan, T.

    2008-04-17

    To benchmark the validity of using the (d,p{gamma}) reaction as a surrogate for (n,{gamma}), the {sup 171,173}Yb(d,p{gamma}) reactions were measured and compared with the neutron capture cross sections measured by Wisshak et al. The (d,p{gamma}) ratios were measured using an 18.5 MeV deuteron beam from the 88-Inch Cyclotron at LBNL. Preliminary results comparing the surrogate ratios with the known (n,{gamma}) cross sections are discussed.

  11. A jet fuel surrogate formulated by real fuel properties

    SciTech Connect

    Dooley, Stephen; Won, Sang Hee; Chaos, Marcos; Heyne, Joshua; Ju, Yiguang; Dryer, Frederick L.; Kumar, Kamal; Sung, Chih-Jen; Wang, Haowei; Oehlschlaeger, Matthew A.; Santoro, Robert J.; Litzinger, Thomas A.

    2010-12-15

    An implicit methodology based on chemical group theory to formulate a jet aviation fuel surrogate by the measurements of several combustion related fuel properties is tested. The empirical formula and derived cetane number of an actual aviation fuel, POSF 4658, have been determined. A three component surrogate fuel for POSF 4658 has been formulated by constraining a mixture of n-decane, iso-octane and toluene to reproduce the hydrogen/carbon ratio and derived cetane number of the target fuel. The validity of the proposed surrogate is evaluated by experimental measurement of select combustion properties of POSF 4658, and the POSF 4658 surrogate. (1)A variable pressure flow reactor has been used to chart the chemical reactivity of stoichiometric mixtures of POSF 4658/O{sub 2}/N{sub 2} and POSF 4658 surrogate/O{sub 2}/N{sub 2} at 12.5 atm and 500-1000 K, fixing the carbon content at 0.3% for both mixtures. (2)The high temperature chemical reactivity and chemical kinetic-molecular diffusion coupling of POSF 4658 and POSF 4658 surrogate have been evaluated by measurement of the strained extinction limit of diffusion flames. (3)The autoignition behavior of POSF 4658 and POSF 4658 surrogate has been measured with a shock tube at 674-1222 K and with a rapid compression machine at 645-714 K for stoichiometric mixtures of fuel in air at pressures close to 20 atm. The flow reactor study shows that the character and extent of chemical reactivity of both fuels at low temperature (500-675 K) and high temperature (900 K+) are extremely similar. Slight differences in the transition from the end of the negative temperature coefficient regime to hot ignition are observed. The diffusion flame strained extinction limits of the fuels are observed to be indistinguishable when compared on a molar basis. Ignition delay measurements also show that POSF 4658 exhibits NTC behavior. Moreover, the ignition delays of both fuels are also extremely similar over the temperature range studied in

  12. Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barker, Edwin S.; Matney, M. J.; Liou, J.-C.; Abercromby, K. J.; Rodriquez, H. M.; Seitzer, P.

    2006-01-01

    Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and

  13. Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, E.; Matney, M. J.; Liou, J.-C.; Abercromby, K.; Rodriguez, H.; Seitzer, P.

    Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view ~1.3°) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12° and a RAAN of 345°. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA's LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta

  14. CSF as a surrogate for assessing CNS exposure: an industrial perspective.

    PubMed

    Lin, Jiunn H

    2008-01-01

    For drugs that directly act on targets in the central nervous system (CNS), sufficient drug delivery into the brain is a prerequisite for drug action. Systemically administered drugs can reach CNS by passage across the endothelium of capillary vasculatures, the so-called blood-brain barrier (BBB). Literature data suggest that most marketed CNS drugs have good membrane permeability and relatively high plasma unbound fraction, but are not good P-glycoprotein (P-gp) substrates. Therefore, it is important to use the in vitro parameters of P-gp function activity, membrane permeability and plasma unbound fraction as key criteria for lead optimization during the early stage of drug discovery. Evidence from preclinical and clinical studies suggests that drug concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) appears to be reasonably accurate in predicting unbound drug concentration in the brain. Therefore, CSF can be used as a useful surrogate for in vivo assessment of CNS exposure and provides an important basis for the selection of drug candidates for entry into development. However, it is important to point out that CSF drug concentration is not always an accurate surrogate for predicting unbound drug concentration in the brain. Depending on the physicochemical properties of drugs and the site/timing of CSF sampling, the unbound drug concentration at the biophase within the brain could differ significantly from the corresponding CSF drug concentration.

  15. A Study of Colonial Surrogates and Indigenous Others.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willard, William

    1993-01-01

    Carlos Montezuma, an Apache, was raised by whites, graduated from medical school, and worked as physician for the Indian Service and Carlisle Indian School. Montezuma's life as colonial surrogate advocating "civilization" of the Indians is compared to Kafka's story of the ape who studied to become a passable European because it was "a way out" of…

  16. The Development and Implementation of Surrogate Parent Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Roberta E.

    The paper examines the surrogate parent program at Forest Haven, the District of Columbia's institution for the mentally retarded. The program provides seven major services among which are its function as an advocate for educational, court, and other personal programing and as a monitor of the educational placement of clients. Problems in the…

  17. Fluorescent polymeric aggregates for selective response to sarin surrogates.

    PubMed

    Rusu, Anca D; Moleavin, Ioana A; Hurduc, Nicolae; Hamel, Matthieu; Rocha, Licinio

    2014-09-01

    By combining the sensitivity of fluorescent units with the response of "smart" polymers to environmental changes, we propose a new approach for chemical detection applications. The system proved to be sensitive to 12 ppb of diethyl chlorophosphate (DCP), a Sarin surrogate, and to discriminate between the interfering molecules. PMID:25034965

  18. Salmonella surrogate reduction using industrial peanut dry roasting parameters

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Studies were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of industrial peanut dry roasting parameters in Salmonella reduction using a Salmonella surrogate, Enterococcus faecium, which is slightly more heat tolerant than Salmonella. Runner-type peanuts were inoculated with E. faecium and roasted in a lab...

  19. Surrogate based wind farm layout optimization using manifold mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaja Kamaludeen, Shaafi M.; van Zuijle, Alexander; Bijl, Hester

    2016-09-01

    High computational cost associated with the high fidelity wake models such as RANS or LES serves as a primary bottleneck to perform a direct high fidelity wind farm layout optimization (WFLO) using accurate CFD based wake models. Therefore, a surrogate based multi-fidelity WFLO methodology (SWFLO) is proposed. The surrogate model is built using an SBO method referred as manifold mapping (MM). As a verification, optimization of spacing between two staggered wind turbines was performed using the proposed surrogate based methodology and the performance was compared with that of direct optimization using high fidelity model. Significant reduction in computational cost was achieved using MM: a maximum computational cost reduction of 65%, while arriving at the same optima as that of direct high fidelity optimization. The similarity between the response of models, the number of mapping points and its position, highly influences the computational efficiency of the proposed method. As a proof of concept, realistic WFLO of a small 7-turbine wind farm is performed using the proposed surrogate based methodology. Two variants of Jensen wake model with different decay coefficients were used as the fine and coarse model. The proposed SWFLO method arrived at the same optima as that of the fine model with very less number of fine model simulations.

  20. GENERATING SOPHISTICATED SPATIAL SURROGATES USING THE MIMS SPATIAL ALLOCATOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) Spatial Allocator is open-source software for generating spatial surrogates for emissions modeling, changing the map projection of Shapefiles, and performing other types of spatial allocation that does not require the use of a comm...

  1. Defining Useful Surrogates for User Participation in Online Medical Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beddy, Peter; Ridgway, Paul F.; Beddy, David; Clarke, Eric; Traynor, Oscar; Tierney, Sean

    2009-01-01

    "School for Surgeons" is a web-based distance learning program which provides online clinical-based tutorials to surgical trainees. Our aim was to determine surrogates of active participation and to assess the efficacy of methods to improve usage. Server logs of the 82 participants in the "School for Surgeons" were assessed for the two terms of…

  2. Is Suicide Ideation a Surrogate Endpoint for Geriatric Suicide?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Links, Paul S.; Heisel, Marnin J.; Quastel, Adam

    2005-01-01

    The present study explored the validity of treating suicide ideation as a surrogate endpoint that can serve as a proxy for suicide in clinical intervention research with suicidal seniors. Two criteria; that suicide ideation is modulated by the proposed intervention and that modulation of suicide ideation leads to a quantitative reduction in…

  3. Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Probit Models with Surrogate Outcome Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poon, Wai-Yin; Wang, Hai-Bin

    2010-01-01

    A new class of parametric models that generalize the multivariate probit model and the errors-in-variables model is developed to model and analyze ordinal data. A general model structure is assumed to accommodate the information that is obtained via surrogate variables. A hybrid Gibbs sampler is developed to estimate the model parameters. To…

  4. Kinetic Modeling of Toluene Oxidation for Surrogate Fuel Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Frassoldati, A; Mehl, M; Fietzek, R; Faravelli, T; Pitz, W J; Ranzi, E

    2009-04-21

    New environmental issues, like the effect of combustion-generated greenhouse gases, provide motivation to better characterize oxidation of hydrocarbons. Transportation, in particular, significantly contributes to energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. Kinetic studies about the combustion of fuels under conditions typical of internal combustion engines provides important support to improve mechanism formulation and to eventually provide better computational tools that can be used to increase the engine performance. It is foreseeable that at least in the next 30 years the main transportation fuels will be either gasoline or diesel. Unfortunately, these fuels are very complex mixtures of many components. Moreover, their specifications and performance requirements significantly change the composition of these fuels: gasoline and diesel mixtures are different if coming from different refineries or they are different from winter to summer. At the same time a fuel with a well defined and reproducible composition is needed for both experimental and modeling work. In response to these issues, surrogate fuels are proposed. Surrogate fuels are defined as mixtures of a small number of hydrocarbons whose relative concentrations is adjusted in order to approximate the chemical and physical properties of a real fuel. Surrogate fuels are then very useful both for the design of reproducible experimental tests and also for the development of reliable kinetic models. The primary reference fuels (PRF) are a typical and old example of surrogate fuel: n-heptane and iso-octane mixtures are used to reproduce antiknock propensity of complex mixtures contained in a gasoline. PRFs are not able to surrogate gasoline in operating conditions different from standard ones and new surrogates have been recently proposed. Toluene is included in all of them as a species able to represent the behavior of aromatic compounds. On the other side, the toluene oxidation chemistry is not so well

  5. Recent Progress in the Development of Diesel Surrogate Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Pitz, W J; Mueller, C J

    2009-12-09

    There has been much recent progress in the area of surrogate fuels for diesel. In the last few years, experiments and modeling have been performed on higher molecular weight components of relevance to diesel fuel such as n-hexadecane (n-cetane) and 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (iso-cetane). Chemical kinetic models have been developed for all the n-alkanes up to 16 carbon atoms. Also, there has been much experimental and modeling work on lower molecular weight surrogate components such as n-decane and n-dodecane that are most relevant to jet fuel surrogates, but are also relevant to diesel surrogates where simulation of the full boiling point range is desired. For two-ring compounds, experimental work on decalin and tetralin recently has been published. For multi-component surrogate fuel mixtures, recent work on modeling of these mixtures and comparisons to real diesel fuel is reviewed. Detailed chemical kinetic models for surrogate fuels are very large in size. Significant progress also has been made in improving the mechanism reduction tools that are needed to make these large models practicable in multi-dimensional reacting flow simulations of diesel combustion. Nevertheless, major research gaps remain. In the case of iso-alkanes, there are experiments and modeling work on only one of relevance to diesel: iso-cetane. Also, the iso-alkanes in diesel are lightly branched and no detailed chemical kinetic models or experimental investigations are available for such compounds. More components are needed to fill out the iso-alkane boiling point range. For the aromatic class of compounds, there has been no new work for compounds in the boiling point range of diesel. Most of the new work has been on alkyl aromatics that are of the range C7 to C8, below the C10 to C20 range that is needed. For the chemical class of cycloalkanes, experiments and modeling on higher molecular weight components are warranted. Finally for multi-component surrogates needed to treat real

  6. Recent Progress in the Development of Diesel Surrogate Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Pitz, W J

    2009-09-04

    There has been much recent progress in the area of surrogate fuels for diesel. In the last few years, experiments and modeling have been performed on higher molecular weight components of relevance to diesel fuel such as n-hexadecane (n-cetane) and 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (iso-cetane). Chemical kinetic models have been developed for all the n-alkanes up to 16 carbon atoms. Also, there has been much experimental and modeling work on lower molecular weight surrogate components such as n-decane and do-decane which are most relevant to jet fuel surrogates, but are also relevant to diesel surrogates where simulation of the full boiling point range is desired. For the cycloalkanes, experimental work on decalin and tetralin recently has been published. For multi-component surrogate fuel mixtures, recent work on modeling of these mixtures and comparisons to real diesel fuel is reviewed. Detailed chemical kinetic models for surrogate fuels are very large in size. Significant progress also has been made in improving the mechanism reduction tools that are needed to make these large models practicable in multidimensional reacting flow simulations of diesel combustion. Nevertheless, major research gaps remain. In the case of iso-alkanes, there are experiments and modeling work on only one of relevance to diesel: iso-cetane. Also, the iso-alkanes in diesel are lightly branched and no detailed chemical kinetic models or experimental investigations are available for such compounds. More components are needed to fill out the iso-alkane boiling point range. For the aromatic class of compounds, there has been no new work for compounds in the boiling point range of diesel. Most of the new work has been on alkyl aromatics that are of the range C7 to C8, below the C10 to C20 range that is needed. For the chemical class of cycloalkanes, experiments and modeling on higher molecular weight components are warranted. Finally for multi-component surrogates needed to treat real diesel

  7. Development of a Human Cranial Bone Surrogate for Impact Studies

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Jack C.; Merkle, Andrew C.; Carneal, Catherine M.; Voo, Liming M.; Johannes, Matthew S.; Paulson, Jeff M.; Tankard, Sara; Uy, O. Manny

    2013-01-01

    In order to replicate the fracture behavior of the intact human skull under impact it becomes necessary to develop a material having the mechanical properties of cranial bone. The most important properties to replicate in a surrogate human skull were found to be the fracture toughness and tensile strength of the cranial tables as well as the bending strength of the three-layer (inner table-diplöe-outer table) architecture of the human skull. The materials selected to represent the surrogate cranial tables consisted of two different epoxy resins systems with random milled glass fiber to enhance the strength and stiffness and the materials to represent the surrogate diplöe consisted of three low density foams. Forty-one three-point bending fracture toughness tests were performed on nine material combinations. The materials that best represented the fracture toughness of cranial tables were then selected and formed into tensile samples and tested. These materials were then used with the two surrogate diplöe foam materials to create the three-layer surrogate cranial bone samples for three-point bending tests. Drop tower tests were performed on flat samples created from these materials and the fracture patterns were very similar to the linear fractures in pendulum impacts of intact human skulls, previously reported in the literature. The surrogate cranial tables had the quasi-static fracture toughness and tensile strength of 2.5 MPa√ m and 53 ± 4.9 MPa, respectively, while the same properties of human compact bone were 3.1 ± 1.8 MPa√ m and 68 ± 18 MPa, respectively. The cranial surrogate had a quasi-static bending strength of 68 ± 5.7 MPa, while that of cranial bone was 82 ± 26 MPa. This material/design is currently being used to construct spherical shell samples for drop tower and ballistic tests. PMID:25023222

  8. Structural Determinants of Drug Partitioning in Surrogates of Phosphatidylcholine Bilayer Strata

    PubMed Central

    Lukacova, Viera; Natesan, Senthil; Peng, Ming; Tandlich, Roman; Wang, Zhanbin; Lynch, Sandra; Subramaniam, Rajesh; Balaz, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge of drug concentrations in bilayer headgroups, core, and at the interface between them is a prerequisite for quantitative modeling of drug interactions with many membrane-bound transporters, metabolizing enzymes and receptors, which have the binding sites located in the bilayer. This knowledge also helps understand the rates of trans-bilayer transport because balanced interactions of drugs with the bilayer strata lead to high rates, while excessive affinities for any stratum cause a slowdown. Experimental determination of bilayer location is so tedious and costly that the data are only available for some fifty compounds. To extrapolate these valuable results to more compounds at a higher throughput, surrogate phases have been used to obtain correlates of the drug affinities for individual strata. We introduced a novel system, consisting of a diacetyl phosphatidylcholine (DAcPC) solution with the water content of the fluid bilayer as the headgroup surrogate and n-hexadecane (C16) representing the core. The C16/DAcPC partition coefficients were measured for 113 selected compounds, containing structural fragments that are frequently occurring in approved drugs. The data were deconvoluted into the ClogP-based fragment solvation characteristics and processed using a solvatochromic correlation. Increased H-bond donor ability and excess molar refractivity of compounds promote solvation in the DAcPC phase as compared to bulk water, contrary to H-bond acceptor ability, dipolarity/polarizability, and volume. The results show that aromates have more balanced distribution in bilayer strata, and thus faster trans-bilayer transport, than similar alkanes. This observation is in accordance with the frequent occurrence of aromatic rings in approved drugs and with the role of rigidity of drug molecules in promoting intestinal absorption. Bilayer locations, predicted using the C16/DAcPC system, are in excellent agreement with available experimental data, in contrast to

  9. Experimental Investigations of Oxygen Atom Loss on Mesospheric Dust Surrogates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boulter, J. E.; Marschall, J.; Spangler, E. L.

    2002-12-01

    Inconsistencies have been noted between model predictions and observations of mesospheric composition in narrow regions of the mesosphere. Several arctic rocket campaigns between 1978 and 1993 have observed oxygen atom "bite-outs," narrow layers just below 85 km depleted in atomic oxygen, correlated with NLC observations1. Separate observations from the HALOE instrument on UARS indicated the presence of a band of enhanced water vapor centered near 70 km at mid-latitudes that has not yet been adequately explained by current HOx models2. Because the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) contains a variety of surfaces such as ice particles and ablated meteoric dust, heterogeneous reactions might influence these observed phenomena. Reactions currently being considered are the recombination of oxygen atoms to form molecular oxygen and the reaction of molecular hydrogen with atomic oxygen to form water. To investigate these possible surface-mediated reactions, Knudsen cell experiments have been performed to quantify the oxygen atom recombination coefficient on mineral oxide powders representative of meteoritic composition. Oxygen atoms, produced by means of a microwave frequency discharge, and reagent gases are admitted to a low-pressure, well-mixed reactor in which the loss of the reactant species to a sample surface competes with escape through an exit aperture. Steady state reactant and product concentrations are measured by laser-induced fluorescence and mass spectrometry. By varying the area of the exit orifice in the presence or absence of the surface or reagent gases being investigated, atomic oxygen loss coefficients (γ) can be derived and then related to specific heterogeneous chemical reactions. Preliminary values will be reported for surface-mediated oxygen loss coefficients on several dust surrogates at room temperature and at pressures characteristic of the mesopause region. 1 Gumbel, J., Murtagh, D. P. Espy, P. J., Witt, G., and Schmidlin, F. J., J

  10. A Global Genomic and Genetic Strategy to Identify, Validate and Use Gene Signatures of Xenobiotic-Responsive Transcription Factors in Prediction of Pathway Activation in the Mouse Liver

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many drugs and environmentally-relevant chemicals activate xenobiotic-responsive transcription factors. Identification of target genes of these factors would be useful in predicting pathway activation in in vitro chemical screening as well as their involvement in disease states. ...

  11. Estimation of k-e parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data.

    SciTech Connect

    Lefantzi, Sophia; Ray, Jaideep; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; Dechant, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k [?] e parameters ( C u , C e 2 , C e 1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal values of the turbulence model

  12. Postmarket safety of drugs approved by Health Canada on the basis of clinical and surrogate outcomes: a cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ahmed, Tareq

    2015-01-01

    Background Health Canada approves drugs on the basis of evidence from clinical trials using clinical or surrogate outcomes. This study compares the postmarket safety of these 2 groups of drugs. Methods Information about whether clinical or surrogate outcomes were used and the date of market approval were obtained from Health Canada’s Summary Basis of Decision documents issued from Jan. 1, 2005, to Dec. 31, 2014. Safety warnings and the dates they were issued were identified through advisories on the MedEffect Canada website. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were calculated to determine the likelihood that drugs in the clinical and surrogate outcome groups would receive a serious safety warning. The time from market authorization to first serious safety warning was compared for the 2 groups of drugs. Results A total of 124 drugs were approved by Health Canada using clinical outcomes and 114 using surrogate outcomes. Kaplan–Meier curves did not differ between the 2 groups (p < 0.9). The median time from market authorization to first serious safety warning was 722 days in the clinical outcome group and 818 days in the surrogate outcome group (difference 96 days, 95% confidence interval –295 to 425). Interpretation We found no statistically significant difference in postmarket safety between drugs approved using clinical outcomes and those approved using surrogate outcomes. Because drugs in the surrogate outcome group are approved before their benefit:harm ratio is fully established, these drugs should be used with caution until their clinical benefits are better understood. PMID:26442227

  13. Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non?detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.

  14. [F-18]-Fluoromisonidazole Quantification of Hypoxia in Human Cancer Patients using Image-derived Blood Surrogate Tissue Reference Regions

    PubMed Central

    Muzi, Mark; Peterson, Lanell M.; O’Sullivan, Janet N.; Fink, James R.; Rajendran, Joseph G.; McLaughlin, Lena J.; Muzi, John P.; Mankoff, David A.; Krohn, Kenneth A.

    2015-01-01

    18F-FMISO is the most widely used PET agent for imaging hypoxia, a condition associated with resistance to tumor therapy. 18F-FMISO equilibrates in normoxic tissues, but is retained under hypoxic conditions because of reduction and binding to macromolecules. A simple tissue-to-blood ratio (TB) is suitable for quantifying hypoxia. A threshold of TB ≥ 1.2 is useful in discriminating the hypoxic volume (HV) of tissue; TBmax is the maximum intensity of the hypoxic region and does not invoke a threshold. Because elimination of blood sampling would simplify clinical use, we tested the validity of using imaging regions as a surrogate for blood sampling. Methods Patients underwent 20 min 18F-FMISO scans during the 90–140 min interval post-injection with venous blood sampling. 223 18F-FMISO patient studies had detectable surrogate blood regions in the field-of-view. Quantitative parameters of hypoxia (TBmax, HV) derived from blood samples were compared to values using surrogate blood regions derived from heart, aorta and/or cerebellum. In a subset of brain cancer patients, parameters from blood samples and from cerebellum were compared for their ability to independently predict outcome. Results Vascular regions of heart showed the highest correlation to measured blood activity (R2 = 0.84). For brain studies, cerebellar activity was similarly correlated to blood samples. In brain cancer patients, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that image-derived reference regions had nearly identical predictive power as parameters derived from blood, thus obviating the need for venous sampling in these patients. Conclusions Simple static analysis of 18F-FMISO PET captures both the intensity (TBmax) and spatial extent (HV) of tumor hypoxia. An image-derived region to assess blood activity can be used as a surrogate for blood sampling in quantification of hypoxia. PMID:26112020

  15. Using an external surrogate for predictor model training in real-time motion management of lung tumors

    SciTech Connect

    Rottmann, Joerg; Berbeco, Ross

    2014-12-15

    Purpose: Precise prediction of respiratory motion is a prerequisite for real-time motion compensation techniques such as beam, dynamic couch, or dynamic multileaf collimator tracking. Collection of tumor motion data to train the prediction model is required for most algorithms. To avoid exposure of patients to additional dose from imaging during this procedure, the feasibility of training a linear respiratory motion prediction model with an external surrogate signal is investigated and its performance benchmarked against training the model with tumor positions directly. Methods: The authors implement a lung tumor motion prediction algorithm based on linear ridge regression that is suitable to overcome system latencies up to about 300 ms. Its performance is investigated on a data set of 91 patient breathing trajectories recorded from fiducial marker tracking during radiotherapy delivery to the lung of ten patients. The expected 3D geometric error is quantified as a function of predictor lookahead time, signal sampling frequency and history vector length. Additionally, adaptive model retraining is evaluated, i.e., repeatedly updating the prediction model after initial training. Training length for this is gradually increased with incoming (internal) data availability. To assess practical feasibility model calculation times as well as various minimum data lengths for retraining are evaluated. Relative performance of model training with external surrogate motion data versus tumor motion data is evaluated. However, an internal–external motion correlation model is not utilized, i.e., prediction is solely driven by internal motion in both cases. Results: Similar prediction performance was achieved for training the model with external surrogate data versus internal (tumor motion) data. Adaptive model retraining can substantially boost performance in the case of external surrogate training while it has little impact for training with internal motion data. A minimum

  16. A unified procedure for meta-analytic evaluation of surrogate end points in randomized clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Dai, James Y; Hughes, James P

    2012-09-01

    The meta-analytic approach to evaluating surrogate end points assesses the predictiveness of treatment effect on the surrogate toward treatment effect on the clinical end point based on multiple clinical trials. Definition and estimation of the correlation of treatment effects were developed in linear mixed models and later extended to binary or failure time outcomes on a case-by-case basis. In a general regression setting that covers nonnormal outcomes, we discuss in this paper several metrics that are useful in the meta-analytic evaluation of surrogacy. We propose a unified 3-step procedure to assess these metrics in settings with binary end points, time-to-event outcomes, or repeated measures. First, the joint distribution of estimated treatment effects is ascertained by an estimating equation approach; second, the restricted maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the means and the variance components of the random treatment effects; finally, confidence intervals are constructed by a parametric bootstrap procedure. The proposed method is evaluated by simulations and applications to 2 clinical trials.

  17. Processing of Oak Ridge B&C pond sludge surrogate in the transportable vitrification system

    SciTech Connect

    Zamecnik, J.R.; Young, S.R.; Peeler, D.K.; Smith, M.E.

    1997-04-16

    The Transportable Vitrification System (TVS) developed at the Savannah River Site is designed to process low-level and mixed radioactive wastes into a stable glass product. The TVS consists of a feed preparation and delivery system, a joule-heated melter, and an offgas treatment system. Surrogate Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) B&C pond sludge was treated in a demonstration of the TVS system at Clemson University and at ORR. After initial tests with soda-lime-silica (SLS) feed, three melter volumes of glass were produced from the surrogate feed. A forthcoming report will describe glass characterization; and melter feeding, operation, and glass pouring. Melter operations described will include slurry characterization and feeding, factors affecting feed melt rates, glass pouring and pour rate constraints, and melter operating temperatures. Residence time modeling of the melter will also be discussed. Characterization of glass; including composition, predicted liquidity and viscosity, Toxic Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP), and devitrification will be covered. Devitrification was a concern in glass container tests and was found to be mostly dependent on the cooling rate. Crucible tests indicated that melter shutdown with glass containing Fe and Li was also a devitrification concern, so the melter was flushed with SLS glass before cooldown.

  18. Evaluating Microbial Purification during Soil Treatment of Wastewater with Multicomponent Tracer and Surrogate Tests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Cuyk, S.; Siegrist, R.L.; Lowe, K.; Harvey, R.W.

    2004-01-01

    Soil treatment of wastewater has the potential to achieve high purification efficiency, yet the understanding and predictability of purification with respect to removal of viruses and other pathogens is limited. Research has been completed to quantify the removal of virus and bacteria through the use of microbial surrogates and conservative tracers during controlled experiments with three-dimensional pilot-scale soil treatment systems in the laboratory and during the testing of full-scale systems under field conditions. The surrogates and tracers employed included two viruses (MS-2 and PRID-1 bacteriophages), one bacterium (ice-nucleating active Pseudomonas), and one conservative tracer (bromide ion). Efforts have also been made to determine the relationship between viruses and fecal coliform bacteria in soil samples below the wastewater infiltrative surface, and the correlation between Escherichia coil concentrations measured in percolating soil solution as compared with those estimated from analyses of soil solids. The results suggest episodic breakthrough of virus and bacteria during soil treatment of wastewater and a 2 to 3 log (99-99.9%) removal of virus and near complete removal of fecal coliform bacteria during unsaturated flow through 60 to 90 cm of sandy medium. Results also suggest that the fate of fecal coliform bacteria may be indicative of that of viruses in soil media near the infiltrative surface receiving wastewater effluent. Concentrations of fecal coliform in percolating soil solution may be conservatively estimated from analysis of extracted soil solids.

  19. The evaluation of new multi-material human soft tissue simulants for sports impact surrogates.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard; Waters, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Previous sports impact reconstructions have highlighted the inadequacies in current measures to evaluate the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and emphasised the need for improved impact surrogates that provide a more biofidelic representation of human impact response. The skin, muscle and subcutaneous adipose tissues were considered to constitute the structures primarily governing the mechanical behaviour of the human body segment. A preceding study by Payne et al. (in press) investigated the formulation and characterisation of muscle tissue simulants. The present study investigates the development of bespoke blends of additive cure polydimethysiloxane (PDMS) silicones to represent both skin and adipose tissues using the same processes previously reported. These simulants were characterised mechanically through a range of strain rates and a range of hyperelastic and viscoelastic constitutive models were evaluated to describe their behaviour. To explore the worth of the silicone simulants, finite element (FE) models were developed using anthropometric parameters representative of the human thigh segment, derived from the Visible Human Project. The multi-material silicone construction was validated experimentally and compared with both organic tissue data from literature and commonly used single material simulants: Dow Corning Silastic 3480 series silicones and ballistics gelatin when subject to a representative sports specific knee impact. Superior biofidelic performance is reported for the PDMS silicone formulations and surrogate predictions. PMID:25448686

  20. The evaluation of new multi-material human soft tissue simulants for sports impact surrogates.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard; Waters, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Previous sports impact reconstructions have highlighted the inadequacies in current measures to evaluate the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and emphasised the need for improved impact surrogates that provide a more biofidelic representation of human impact response. The skin, muscle and subcutaneous adipose tissues were considered to constitute the structures primarily governing the mechanical behaviour of the human body segment. A preceding study by Payne et al. (in press) investigated the formulation and characterisation of muscle tissue simulants. The present study investigates the development of bespoke blends of additive cure polydimethysiloxane (PDMS) silicones to represent both skin and adipose tissues using the same processes previously reported. These simulants were characterised mechanically through a range of strain rates and a range of hyperelastic and viscoelastic constitutive models were evaluated to describe their behaviour. To explore the worth of the silicone simulants, finite element (FE) models were developed using anthropometric parameters representative of the human thigh segment, derived from the Visible Human Project. The multi-material silicone construction was validated experimentally and compared with both organic tissue data from literature and commonly used single material simulants: Dow Corning Silastic 3480 series silicones and ballistics gelatin when subject to a representative sports specific knee impact. Superior biofidelic performance is reported for the PDMS silicone formulations and surrogate predictions.

  1. Identifying patterns of anxiety and depression in children with chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: Comorbidity predicts behavioural difficulties and impaired functional communications

    PubMed Central

    Stephenson, David D.; Beaton, Elliott A.; Weems, Carl F.; Angkustsiri, Kathleen; Simon, Tony J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) is a complex genetic disorder with a variable clinical presentation that can include cardiac, neural, immunological, and psychological issues. Previous studies have measured elevated anxiety and depression in children with 22q11.2DS. Comorbity of anxiety and depression is well established in the pediatric literature but the nature of comorbidity patterns has not been empirically established in children with 22q11.2DS. Comorbidity of anxiety and depression has important implications for treatment and prognosis, and may be a marker of risk in this population of children at high-risk for developing schizophrenia. Method Participants were 131 boys and girls ages 8 to 14 with (n = 76) and without (n = 55) 22q11.2DS and their mothers. Children and mothers independently completed self- and parent-report measures of anxiety and depression. Mothers also completed measures of behavioural functioning including the Behavioral Assessment for Children, 2nd ed. (BASC-2). Cluster analyses were conducted to test if theoretically based groupings of anxiety and depression could be identified. We hypothesized four psychological profiles based on child- and mother-reports: low/no anxiety and low/no depression, higher depression and low/no anxiety, higher anxiety and no/low depression, and a comorbid profile of higher anxiety and higher depression. BASC-2 subscale scores were then compared across subgroups of children to determine if a comorbid profile would predict greater behavioural difficulties. Results In the full sample of children both with and without 22q11.2DS, cluster analyses of self and maternal reported anxiety and depression revealed the expected subgroups: 1) a group of children with higher anxiety/lower depression (anxious); 2) a group with primary depression (lower anxiety/higher depression (depressed); 3) a comorbid group with higher anxiety/higher depression (comorbid); and, 4) a lowest anxiety

  2. The Impacts of Intrusive Advising on the Persistence of First-Year Science, Technology, and Mathematics Students Identified Using a Risk Prediction Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Matthew A.

    2013-01-01

    Set in a large, urban, public university, this study explores the use of an institutionally specific risk instrument developed to identify students who had a high risk of attrition and the effectiveness of subsequent interventions deployed through advising. Though implemented throughout the institution, this study identified control and treatment…

  3. Drinking Alcohol Surrogates Among Clients of an Alcohol-Misuser Treatment Clinic in Novosibirsk, Russia

    PubMed Central

    BOBROVA, NATALIA; WEST, ROBERT; MALUTINA, DARYA; KOSHKINA, EVGENIA; TERKULOV, RAVIL; BOBAK, MARTIN

    2014-01-01

    A pilot study was conducted in the Russian city Novosibirsk during 2006–2007 with 40 participants sampled from clients admitted to health services for drinking-related problems to explore surrogates for alcoholic beverage drinking using semistructured interviews. Types of surrogates consumed and reasons for their consumption were investigated. Results revealed that the most prevalent reported surrogate used was industrial spirit. The main reasons for drinking surrogates were the high affordability and physical availability of surrogates combined with the need to relieve severe withdrawal symptoms. The study limitations are described, and suggestions for future research are made. PMID:20001282

  4. Human surrogate models of histaminergic and non-histaminergic itch.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Hjalte H; Elberling, Jesper; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars

    2015-09-01

    Within the last decade understanding of the mechanistic basis of itch has improved significantly, resulting in the development of several human surrogate models of itch and related dysesthetic states. Well-characterized somatosensory models are useful in basic studies in healthy volunteers, in clinical studies for diagnostic and segmentation purposes, and in pharmacological studies to evaluate the antipruritic efficacy of existing and novel compounds. This review outlines recently introduced histamine-independent human models of itch, their mechanisms, their ability to induce clinically relevant phenomena, such as alloknesis, and the results obtained through their use. The article also introduces recent advances in the understanding of itch and provides an overview of the methods to assess experimentally-induced itch and associated manifestations. Major improvements are warranted in the treatment of chronic pruritus, and reliable human surrogate models are a valuable tool in achieving them, both for basic researchers and for clinicians.

  5. Surrogate-based Reliability Analysis Using Support Vector Machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gang; Liu, Zhiqiang

    2010-05-01

    An approach of surrogate-based reliability analysis by support vector machine with Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed. The efficient sampling techniques, such as uniform design and Latin Hypercube sampling, are used, and the SVM is trained with the sample pairs of input and output data obtained by the finite element analysis. The trained SVM model, as a solver-surrogate model, is intended to approximate the real performance function. Considering the selection of parameters for SVM affects the learning performance of SVM strongly, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) is integrated to the construction of the SVM, by optimizing the relevant parameters. The influence of the parameters on SVM is discussed and a methodology is proposed for selecting the SVM model. Support Vector Classification (SVC) based and Support Vector Regression (SVR) based reliability analyses are studied. Some numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the proposed method.

  6. Inactivation of the Tulane Virus, a Novel Surrogate for the Human Norovirus

    PubMed Central

    TIAN, PENG; YANG, DAVID; QUIGLEY, CHRISTINA; CHOU, MARISSA; JIANG, XI

    2014-01-01

    Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the major cause of nonbacterial gastroenteritis epidemics. The culturable feline calicivirus and murine norovirus have been used extensively as surrogates to study HuNoV biology, as HuNoV does not grow in vitro. Additional efforts to identify new surrogates are needed, because neither of these common surrogates are truly intestinal pathogens. The newly described Tulane virus (TV) is a typical calicivirus, it is isolated from macaque stools, is cultivable in vitro, and recognizes human histo-blood group antigens. Therefore, TV is a promising surrogate for HuNoVs. In this study, we evaluated the resistance or stability of TV under various physical and environmental conditions by measuring a 50% reduction of tissue culture infective dose (TCID50) by using a TV cell culture system. Due to the nature of this virus, it is hard to produce a high-titer stock through tissue culture. In our study, the maximal reduction in virus titers was 5 D (D = 1 log) in heat-denaturation and EtOH experiments, and 4 D in UV, chlorine, and pH-stability experiments. Therefore in this study, we defined the inactivation of TV as reaching a TCID50/ml of 0 (a 4- to 5-D reduction in TCID50, depending on the detection limit). TV was inactivated after incubation at 63°C for 5 min, incubation at 56°C for 30 min (5 D), exposure to 60 mJ/cm2 of UVC radiation (4 D), or incubation at 300 ppm of free chlorine for 10 min (4 D). TV was shown to be stable from pH 3.0 to 8.0, though an obvious reduction in virus titer was observed at pH 2.5 and 9.0, and was inactivated at pH 10.0 (4 D). TV was resistant to a low concentration of EtOH (40% or lower) but was fully inactivated (5 D) by 50 to 70% EtOH after a short exposure (20 s). In contrast, quantitative real-time PCR was unable to detect, or poorly detected, virus titer reductions between treated and untreated samples described in this study. PMID:23575140

  7. Cheminformatics Analysis of EPA ToxCast Chemical Libraries to Identify Domains of Applicability for Predictive Toxicity Models and Prioritize Compounds for Toxicity Testing

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important goal of toxicology research is the development of robust methods that use in vitro and chemical structure information to predict in vivo toxicity endpoints. The US EPA ToxCast program is addressing this goal using ~600 in vitro assays to create bioactivity profiles o...

  8. Analysis of baseline gene expression levels from toxicogenomics study control animals to identify sources of variation and predict responses to chemicals

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of gene expression profiling to predict chemical mode of action would be enhanced by better characterization of variance due to individual, environmental, and technical factors. Meta-analysis of microarray data from untreated or vehicle-treated animals within the control ...

  9. The Confucian bioethics of surrogate decision making: its communitarian roots.

    PubMed

    Fan, Ruiping

    2011-10-01

    The family is the exemplar community of Chinese society. This essay explores how Chinese communitarian norms, expressed in thick commitments to the authority and autonomy of the family, are central to contemporary Chinese bioethics. In particular, it focuses on the issue of surrogate decision making to illustrate the Confucian family-grounded communitarian bioethics. The essay first describes the way in which the family, in Chinese bioethics, functions as a whole to provide consent for significant medical and surgical interventions when a patient has lost decision-making capacity. It is argued that the practice of not having an established order for surrogate decision makers (e.g., spouse, children, and then parents), as it is done in the United States, reflects the acknowledgment that the family as a social reality cannot be reduced to a stereotype of the appropriate order of default decision makers. This description of the family as being in authority to make surrogate decisions for an incompetent family member is enriched by an elaboration of the differences among the concepts of patient autonomy, family autonomy, and moral autonomy. The Chinese model, as well as the Confucian communitarian life of families, engages a family autonomy that is supported by a Confucian understanding of moral autonomy, rather than individual autonomy. Finally, the issue of possible conflicts between patient and family interests in relation to a patient's past wishes in the Chinese model is addressed in light of the role of the physician.

  10. Surrogate testing for the pilot VAC*TRAX{trademark} unit

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    The project objective is to develop a mobile, economical process for treating organically contaminated soils, sediments, and sludges at sites with small contaminated soil volumes. VAC*TRAX treatment is a low temperature separation process that evaporates or volatilizes organic contaminants from soils, sludges, and other types of solid substances or wastes. It operates by heating the contaminated material in a nitrogen atmosphere in a jacketed vessel; hot oil is passed through the vessel jacket to supply heat to the system. To facilitate desorption, the dryer has the capability to operate at high vacuum, up to 94.6 kPa (28 in. Hg) vacuum. The nitrogen serves as an inert carrier gas for the volatilized organics, transporting them to the gas-treatment system, which consists of a condensing train followed by HEPA filter and activated carbon adsorption beds. The pilot testing operations conducted under the PRDA VAC*TRAX program were divided into two phases. The first involved a series of tests on mixed waste surrogate materials. Surrogates for mixed waste were defined as either soils spiked with representative RCRA regulated contaminants or RCRA regulated waste materials that are typical of or identical to mixed wastes but do not contain a radioactive component. This test report presents the results of the surrogate waste testing. These tests were conducted under task 1.4 of the PRDA program.

  11. Development of novel synthetic muscle tissues for sports impact surrogates.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard; Waters, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Impact injuries are commonplace in sport and often lead to performance detriment and debilitation. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is prescribed as a mandatory requirement in most sports where these impacts are likely to occur, though the methods of governance and evaluation criteria often do not accurately represent sports specific injury scenarios. One of the key shortcomings of such safety test standards is the human surrogate to which the PPE is affixed; this typically embodies unrepresentative geometries, masses, stiffness and levels of constraint when compared to humans. A key aspect of any human surrogate element is the simulant material used. Most previous sports specific surrogates tend to use off-the-shelf silicone blends to represent all the soft tissue structures within the human limb segment or organ; this approach potentially neglects important human response phenomena caused by the different tissue structures. This study presents an investigation into the use of bespoke additive cure Polydimethysiloxane (PDMS) silicone blends to match the reported mechanical properties of human relaxed and contracted skeletal muscle tissues. The silicone simulants have been tested in uniaxial compression through a range of strain rates and fit with a range of constitutive hyperelastic models (Mooney Rivlin, Ogden and Neo Hookean) and a viscoelastic Prony series.

  12. Development of novel synthetic muscle tissues for sports impact surrogates.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard; Waters, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Impact injuries are commonplace in sport and often lead to performance detriment and debilitation. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is prescribed as a mandatory requirement in most sports where these impacts are likely to occur, though the methods of governance and evaluation criteria often do not accurately represent sports specific injury scenarios. One of the key shortcomings of such safety test standards is the human surrogate to which the PPE is affixed; this typically embodies unrepresentative geometries, masses, stiffness and levels of constraint when compared to humans. A key aspect of any human surrogate element is the simulant material used. Most previous sports specific surrogates tend to use off-the-shelf silicone blends to represent all the soft tissue structures within the human limb segment or organ; this approach potentially neglects important human response phenomena caused by the different tissue structures. This study presents an investigation into the use of bespoke additive cure Polydimethysiloxane (PDMS) silicone blends to match the reported mechanical properties of human relaxed and contracted skeletal muscle tissues. The silicone simulants have been tested in uniaxial compression through a range of strain rates and fit with a range of constitutive hyperelastic models (Mooney Rivlin, Ogden and Neo Hookean) and a viscoelastic Prony series. PMID:25260952

  13. Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method-A Case Study of Western Jilin Province.

    PubMed

    An, Yongkai; Lu, Wenxi; Cheng, Weiguo

    2015-07-30

    This paper introduces a surrogate model to identify an optimal exploitation scheme, while the western Jilin province was selected as the study area. A numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was established first, and four exploitation wells were set in the Tongyu county and Qian Gorlos county respectively so as to supply water to Daan county. Second, the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was used to collect data in the feasible region for input variables. A surrogate model of the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was developed using the regression kriging method. An optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the minimum average drawdown of groundwater table and the minimum cost of groundwater exploitation as multi-objective functions. Finally, the surrogate model was invoked by the optimization model in the process of solving the optimization problem. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error of the groundwater table drawdown between the simulation model and the surrogate model for 10 validation samples are both lower than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The contrast between the surrogate-based simulation optimization model and the conventional simulation optimization model for solving the same optimization problem, shows the former only needs 5.5 hours, and the latter needs 25 days. The above results indicate that the surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational burden of the simulation optimization process, but also maintain high computational accuracy. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme quickly and accurately.

  14. Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method—A Case Study of Western Jilin Province

    PubMed Central

    An, Yongkai; Lu, Wenxi; Cheng, Weiguo

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a surrogate model to identify an optimal exploitation scheme, while the western Jilin province was selected as the study area. A numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was established first, and four exploitation wells were set in the Tongyu county and Qian Gorlos county respectively so as to supply water to Daan county. Second, the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was used to collect data in the feasible region for input variables. A surrogate model of the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was developed using the regression kriging method. An optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the minimum average drawdown of groundwater table and the minimum cost of groundwater exploitation as multi-objective functions. Finally, the surrogate model was invoked by the optimization model in the process of solving the optimization problem. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error of the groundwater table drawdown between the simulation model and the surrogate model for 10 validation samples are both lower than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The contrast between the surrogate-based simulation optimization model and the conventional simulation optimization model for solving the same optimization problem, shows the former only needs 5.5 hours, and the latter needs 25 days. The above results indicate that the surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational burden of the simulation optimization process, but also maintain high computational accuracy. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme quickly and accurately. PMID:26264008

  15. Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method-A Case Study of Western Jilin Province.

    PubMed

    An, Yongkai; Lu, Wenxi; Cheng, Weiguo

    2015-08-01

    This paper introduces a surrogate model to identify an optimal exploitation scheme, while the western Jilin province was selected as the study area. A numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was established first, and four exploitation wells were set in the Tongyu county and Qian Gorlos county respectively so as to supply water to Daan county. Second, the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was used to collect data in the feasible region for input variables. A surrogate model of the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was developed using the regression kriging method. An optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the minimum average drawdown of groundwater table and the minimum cost of groundwater exploitation as multi-objective functions. Finally, the surrogate model was invoked by the optimization model in the process of solving the optimization problem. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error of the groundwater table drawdown between the simulation model and the surrogate model for 10 validation samples are both lower than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The contrast between the surrogate-based simulation optimization model and the conventional simulation optimization model for solving the same optimization problem, shows the former only needs 5.5 hours, and the latter needs 25 days. The above results indicate that the surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational burden of the simulation optimization process, but also maintain high computational accuracy. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme quickly and accurately. PMID:26264008

  16. Development of an immunohistochemical protein quantification system in conjunction with tissue microarray technology for identifying predictive biomarkers for phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase inhibitors.

    PubMed

    Isoyama, Sho; Yoshimi, Hisashi; Dan, Shingo; Okamura, Mutsumi; Seki, Mariko; Irimura, Tatsuro; Yamori, Takao

    2012-01-01

    The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway is frequently activated in human cancers by gain-of-function mutations of phosphoinositide-3-kinase, catalytic, alpha polypeptide (PIK3CA) or dysfunction of phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN). Therefore PI3K is thought to be a promising target for cancer therapy. Many agents targeting PI3K have been developed and some of them have been evaluated in clinical trials. In recent years, development of predictive biomarkers as companion diagnostics for molecular targeted drugs has become an important requirement for clinical development; however, no clinically established biomarkers that predict the efficacy of PI3K inhibitors have been found. We previously reported that expression of phosphorylated Akt determined by immunoblot analysis correlated with the antitumor efficacy of a PI3K inhibitor ZSTK474 in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that it might be used as a predictive biomarker. In this study, to evaluate biomarker candidates in in vivo tumor samples, we developed an immunohistochemical protein detection/quantification system in conjunction with the tissue microarray technology using a panel of 24 human tumor xenografts (JFCR24). We have clearly demonstrated that expression levels of phosphorylated v-akt murine thymoma viral oncogene homolog (Akt) and mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) determined by this system significantly correlated with those determined by immunoblot analysis. As expected, PTEN status correlated with expression of phosphorylated Akt but not MAPK. Finally, we confirmed that phosphorylated Akt levels determined using this system correlated with the in vivo efficacy of ZSTK474. The present results indicate that the immunohistochemical protein detection/quantification system could be used to quantify expression of biomarker proteins in xenografted tumor tissues as well as in human tumor specimens to predict drug efficacy in future clinical trials. PMID:22975517

  17. The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Camacho, Claudia J; Bakker, Victoria J; Aurioles-Gamboa, David; Laake, Jeff; Gerber, Leah R

    2015-01-01

    Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. PMID:26413746

  18. The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. PMID:26413746

  19. On the application of an environmental radiological assessment system to an anthropomorphic surrogate.

    PubMed

    Brown, Justin E; Hosseini, Ali; Dowdall, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Recent developments have seen the expansion of the system of radiological protection for humans to one including protection of the environment against detrimental effects of radiation exposure, although a fully developed framework for integration of human and ecological risk assessment for radionuclides is only at an early stage. In the context of integration, significant differences exist between assessment methodologies for humans and the environment in terms of transfer, exposure, and dosimetry. The aim of this elaboration was to explore possible implications of the simplifications made within the system of environmental radiological protection in terms of the efficacy and robustness of dose-rate predictions. A comparison was conducted between human radiological assessment and environmental radiological assessment for an anthropomorphic surrogate, the results for which, produced by both the environmental and human-oriented risk assessment systems, were critically compared and contrasted. The adopted approach split the calculations into several parts, these being 1) physical transfer in an ecosystem, 2) transfer to humans, 3) internal doses to humans, and 4) external doses to humans. The calculations were carried out using both a human radiological assessment and ecological risk assessment system for the same surrogate. The results of this comparison provided indications as to where the 2 systems are amenable to possible integration and where such integration may prove difficult. Initial stage transport models seem to be an obvious component amenable for integration, although complete integration is arguably unattainable as the differences between endpoints mean that the relevant outputs from the models will not be the same. For the transfer and dosimetry components of 2 typical methodologies, it seems that the efficacy of the environmental system is radionuclide-dependent, the predictions given by the environmental system for (90) Sr and (60) Co being

  20. Generation of fluoroscopic 3D images with a respiratory motion model based on an external surrogate signal.

    PubMed

    Hurwitz, Martina; Williams, Christopher L; Mishra, Pankaj; Rottmann, Joerg; Dhou, Salam; Wagar, Matthew; Mannarino, Edward G; Mak, Raymond H; Lewis, John H

    2015-01-21

    Respiratory motion during radiotherapy can cause uncertainties in definition of the target volume and in estimation of the dose delivered to the target and healthy tissue. In this paper, we generate volumetric images of the internal patient anatomy during treatment using only the motion of a surrogate signal. Pre-treatment four-dimensional CT imaging is used to create a patient-specific model correlating internal respiratory motion with the trajectory of an external surrogate placed on the chest. The performance of this model is assessed with digital and physical phantoms reproducing measured irregular patient breathing patterns. Ten patient breathing patterns are incorporated in a digital phantom. For each patient breathing pattern, the model is used to generate images over the course of thirty seconds. The tumor position predicted by the model is compared to ground truth information from the digital phantom. Over the ten patient breathing patterns, the average absolute error in the tumor centroid position predicted by the motion model is 1.4 mm. The corresponding error for one patient breathing pattern implemented in an anthropomorphic physical phantom was 0.6 mm. The global voxel intensity error was used to compare the full image to the ground truth and demonstrates good agreement between predicted and true images. The model also generates accurate predictions for breathing patterns with irregular phases or amplitudes.

  1. A novel population health approach: Using fish retinoblastoma gene profiles as a surrogate for humans.

    PubMed

    Rotchell, Jeanette M; du Corbier, Frances A; Stentiford, Grant D; Lyons, Brett P; Liddle, Andrew R; Ostrander, Gary K

    2009-03-01

    Retinoblastoma, a tumor suppressor gene, is frequently mutated in diverse types of human tumors. We have previously shown that two types of fish tumor, eye and liver, also possess mutant Rb genes. Our aim is to determine if the Rb allele status is linked to environmentally-induced cancer and whether this information in fish can be used to predict future phenotype. This is a proof-of-concept investigation to elucidate if fish may act as surrogates in assessing pollution-induced tumor incidence and inform regulatory authorities of potential long-term population health consequences. Marine flatfish, Limanda limanda, that display either normal liver histopathology, liver adenoma or liver hepatocellular carcinoma were analysed for the presence of Rb gene alterations. Several Rb alterations were detected in the fish displaying adenoma and carcinoma, and not in the surrounding normal tissue from the same individuals. The profile is similar to that reported in humans in that they spread across the gene, particularly exons 8-23, and a functionally important region of the protein. This Rb allele data was then used to build statistical classifier sets, linking Rb status with tumor pathology. Further flatfish caught from coastal-water areas of differing contaminant burden around the UK were subsequently analysed for the presence of Rb alterations. Using novel pattern matching statistics of the classifier sets compared with the coastal samples, the coastal fish were considered more similar to the characterised disease phenotype than the normal phenotype. Preliminary data suggests that using a statistical approach, based on classifying sets of histopathologically-defined tumor states, makes it possible to predict the phenotype of wild fish based on the status of the Rb allele. Since the Rb gene is orthologous, fish populations could act as surrogates for human populations in an eco-epidemiological investigation of the combined roles of genetics and environmental exposures in the

  2. A Surrogate-based Adaptive Sampling Approach for History Matching and Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Weixuan; Zhang, Dongxiao; Lin, Guang

    2015-02-25

    A critical procedure in reservoir simulations is history matching (or data assimilation in a broader sense), which calibrates model parameters such that the simulation results are consistent with field measurements, and hence improves the credibility of the predictions given by the simulations. Often there exist non-unique combinations of parameter values that all yield the simulation results matching the measurements. For such ill-posed history matching problems, Bayesian theorem provides a theoretical foundation to represent different solutions and to quantify the uncertainty with the posterior PDF. Lacking an analytical solution in most situations, the posterior PDF may be characterized with a sample of realizations, each representing a possible scenario. A novel sampling algorithm is presented here for the Bayesian solutions to history matching problems. We aim to deal with two commonly encountered issues: 1) as a result of the nonlinear input-output relationship in a reservoir model, the posterior distribution could be in a complex form, such as multimodal, which violates the Gaussian assumption required by most of the commonly used data assimilation approaches; 2) a typical sampling method requires intensive model evaluations and hence may cause unaffordable computational cost. In the developed algorithm, we use a Gaussian mixture model as the proposal distribution in the sampling process, which is simple but also flexible to approximate non-Gaussian distributions and is particularly efficient when the posterior is multimodal. Also, a Gaussian process is utilized as a surrogate model to speed up the sampling process. Furthermore, an iterative scheme of adaptive surrogate refinement and re-sampling ensures sampling accuracy while keeping the computational cost at a minimum level. The developed approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example and shows its capability in handling the above-mentioned issues. Multimodal posterior of the history matching

  3. Toward Predicting Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Parallel Computational Approaches to Identify Multidrug Resistance Protein 4 and Bile Salt Export Pump Inhibitors

    PubMed Central

    Welch, Matthew A.; Köck, Kathleen; Urban, Thomas J.; Brouwer, Kim L. R.

    2015-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is an important cause of drug toxicity. Inhibition of multidrug resistance protein 4 (MRP4), in addition to bile salt export pump (BSEP), might be a risk factor for the development of cholestatic DILI. Recently, we demonstrated that inhibition of MRP4, in addition to BSEP, may be a risk factor for the development of cholestatic DILI. Here, we aimed to develop computational models to delineate molecular features underlying MRP4 and BSEP inhibition. Models were developed using 257 BSEP and 86 MRP4 inhibitors and noninhibitors in the training set. Models were externally validated and used to predict the affinity of compounds toward BSEP and MRP4 in the DrugBank database. Compounds with a score above the median fingerprint threshold were considered to have significant inhibitory effects on MRP4 and BSEP. Common feature pharmacophore models were developed for MRP4 and BSEP with LigandScout software using a training set of nine well characterized MRP4 inhibitors and nine potent BSEP inhibitors. Bayesian models for BSEP and MRP4 inhibition/noninhibition were developed with cross-validated receiver operator curve values greater than 0.8 for the test sets, indicating robust models with acceptable false positive and false negative prediction rates. Both MRP4 and BSEP inhibitor pharmacophore models were characterized by hydrophobic and hydrogen-bond acceptor features, albeit in distinct spatial arrangements. Similar molecular features between MRP4 and BSEP inhibitors may partially explain why various drugs have affinity for both transporters. The Bayesian (BSEP, MRP4) and pharmacophore (MRP4, BSEP) models demonstrated significant classification accuracy and predictability. PMID:25735837

  4. Design of human surrogates for the study of biomechanical injury: a review.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Human surrogates are representations of living human structures employed to replicate "real-life" injurious scenarios in artificial environments. They are used primarily to evaluate personal protective equipment (PPE) or integrated safety systems (e.g., seat belts) in a wide range of industry sectors (e.g., automotive, military, security service, and sports equipment). Surrogates are commonly considered in five major categories relative to their form and functionality: human volunteers, postmortem human surrogates, animal surrogates, anthropomorphic test devices, and computational models. Each surrogate has its relative merits. Surrogates have been extensively employed in scenarios concerning "life-threatening" impacts (e.g., penetrating bullets or automotive accidents). However, more frequently occurring nonlethal injuries (e.g., fractures, tears, lacerations, contusions) often result in full or partial debilitation in contexts where optimal human performance is crucial (e.g., military, sports). Detailed study of these injuries requires human surrogates with superior biofidelity to those currently available if PPE designs are to improve. The opportunities afforded by new technologies, materials, instrumentation, and processing capabilities should be exploited to develop a new generation of more sophisticated human surrogates. This paper presents a review of the current state of the art in human surrogate construction, highlighting weaknesses and opportunities, to promote research into improved surrogates for PPE development. PMID:23510009

  5. Exploring determinants of surrogate decision-maker confidence: an example from the ICU.

    PubMed

    Bolcic-Jankovic, Dragana; Clarridge, Brian R; LeBlanc, Jessica L; Mahmood, Rumel S; Roman, Anthony M; Freeman, Bradley D

    2014-10-01

    This article is an exploratory data analysis of the determinants of confidence in a surrogate decision maker who has been asked to permit an intensive care unit (ICU) patient's participation in genetic research. We pursue the difference between surrogates' and patients' confidence that the surrogate can accurately represent the patient's wishes. The article also explores whether greater confidence leads to greater agreement between patients and surrogates. Our data come from a survey conducted in three hospital ICUs. We interviewed 445 surrogates and 214 patients. The only thing that influences patients' confidence in their surrogate's decision is whether they had prior discussions with him or her; however, there are more influences operating on the surrogate's self-confidence. More confident surrogates are more likely to match their patients' wishes. Patients are more likely to agree to research participation than their surrogates would allow. The surrogates whose response did not match as closely were less trusting of the hospital staff, were less likely to allow patient participation if there were no direct benefits to the patient, had given less thought about the way genetic research is conducted, and were much less likely to have a person in their life who they would trust to make decisions for them if they were incapacitated. PMID:25747298

  6. Design of human surrogates for the study of biomechanical injury: a review.

    PubMed

    Payne, Thomas; Mitchell, Séan; Bibb, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Human surrogates are representations of living human structures employed to replicate "real-life" injurious scenarios in artificial environments. They are used primarily to evaluate personal protective equipment (PPE) or integrated safety systems (e.g., seat belts) in a wide range of industry sectors (e.g., automotive, military, security service, and sports equipment). Surrogates are commonly considered in five major categories relative to their form and functionality: human volunteers, postmortem human surrogates, animal surrogates, anthropomorphic test devices, and computational models. Each surrogate has its relative merits. Surrogates have been extensively employed in scenarios concerning "life-threatening" impacts (e.g., penetrating bullets or automotive accidents). However, more frequently occurring nonlethal injuries (e.g., fractures, tears, lacerations, contusions) often result in full or partial debilitation in contexts where optimal human performance is crucial (e.g., military, sports). Detailed study of these injuries requires human surrogates with superior biofidelity to those currently available if PPE designs are to improve. The opportunities afforded by new technologies, materials, instrumentation, and processing capabilities should be exploited to develop a new generation of more sophisticated human surrogates. This paper presents a review of the current state of the art in human surrogate construction, highlighting weaknesses and opportunities, to promote research into improved surrogates for PPE development.

  7. Making Decisions for Hospitalized Older Adults: Ethical Factors Considered by Family Surrogates

    PubMed Central

    Fritch, Jenna; Petronio, Sandra; Helft, Paul R.; Torke, Alexia

    2013-01-01

    Background Hospitalized older adults frequently have impaired cognition and must rely on surrogates to make major medical decisions. Ethical standards for surrogate decision making are well delineated, but little is known about what factors surrogates actually consider when making decisions. Objectives To determine factors surrogate decision makers consider when making major medical decisions for hospitalized older adults, and whether or not they adhere to established ethical standards. Design Semi-structured interview study of the experience and process of decision making. Setting A public safety-net hospital and a tertiary referral hospital in a large city in the Midwest. Participants Thirty-five surrogates with a recent decision making experience for an inpatient age 65 and older. Measurements Key factors surrogates considered when making decisions. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed using the grounded theory method of qualitative analysis. Results Surrogates considered patient-centered factors and surrogate-centered factors. Patient-centered factors included: 1) respecting the patient’s input, (2) using past knowledge of patient to infer the patient’s wishes, and (3) considering what is in the patient’s best interests. Some surrogates expressed a desire for more information about the patient’s prior wishes. Surrogate-centered factors included 1) Surrogate’s wishes as a guide, (2) The surrogate’s religious beliefs and/or spirituality, (3) The surrogate’s interests, (4) Family consensus and (5) Obligation and guilt. Conclusion These data show that surrogate decision making is more complex than the standard ethical models, which are limited to patient autonomy and beneficence. Because surrogates also imagine what they would want under the circumstances and consider their own needs and preferences, models of surrogate decision making must account for these additional considerations. Surrogates’ desire for more information about patient

  8. ASME V\\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Beghini, Lauren L.; Hough, Patricia D.

    2015-12-18

    The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivitymore » analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.« less

  9. ASME V\\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V

    SciTech Connect

    Beghini, Lauren L.; Hough, Patricia D.

    2015-12-18

    The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.

  10. Conceptualizing Surrogate Decision-Making at End of Life in the Intensive Care Unit using Cognitive Task Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dionne-Odom, J. Nicholas; Willis, Danny G.; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Purpose Identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Method Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis (CTA) interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center’s ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semi-structured CTA interviews. Discussion The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions: gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions impact a SDM’s judgment about the acceptability of either the patient’s medical treatments or his or her condition. Conclusion The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. PMID:25982772

  11. SU-E-J-73: Generation of Volumetric Images with a Respiratory Motion Model Based On An External Surrogate Signal

    SciTech Connect

    Hurwitz, M; Williams, C; Mishra, P; Dhou, S; Lewis, J

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment can differ significantly from motion observed during imaging for treatment planning. Our goal is to use an initial 4DCT scan and the trace of an external surrogate marker to generate 3D images of patient anatomy during treatment. Methods: Deformable image registration is performed on images from an initial 4DCT scan. The deformation vectors are used to develop a patient-specific linear relationship between the motion of each voxel and the trajectory of an external surrogate signal. Correlations in motion are taken into account with principal component analysis, reducing the number of free parameters. This model is tested with digital phantoms reproducing the breathing patterns of ten measured patient tumor trajectories, using five seconds of data to develop the model and the subsequent thirty seconds to test its predictions. The model is also tested with a breathing physical anthropomorphic phantom programmed to reproduce a patient breathing pattern. Results: The error (mean absolute, 95th percentile) over 30 seconds in the predicted tumor centroid position ranged from (0.8, 1.3) mm to (2.2, 4.3) mm for the ten patient breathing patterns. The model reproduced changes in both phase and amplitude of the breathing pattern. Agreement between prediction and truth over the entire image was confirmed by assessing the global voxel intensity RMS error. In the physical phantom, the error in the tumor centroid position was less than 1 mm for all images. Conclusion: We are able to reconstruct 3D images of patient anatomy with a model correlating internal respiratory motion with motion of an external surrogate marker, reproducing the expected tumor centroid position with an average accuracy of 1.4 mm. The images generated by this model could be used to improve dose calculations for treatment planning and delivered dose estimates. This work was partially funded by a research grant from Varian Medical Systems.

  12. A model for emergency department end-of-life communications after acute devastating events--part I: decision-making capacity, surrogates, and advance directives.

    PubMed

    Limehouse, Walter E; Feeser, V Ramana; Bookman, Kelly J; Derse, Arthur

    2012-09-01

    Making decisions for a patient affected by sudden devastating illness or injury traumatizes a patient's family and loved ones. Even in the absence of an emergency, surrogates making end-of-life treatment decisions may experience negative emotional effects. Helping surrogates with these end-of-life decisions under emergent conditions requires the emergency physician (EP) to be clear, making medical recommendations with sensitivity. This model for emergency department (ED) end-of-life communications after acute devastating events comprises the following steps: 1) determine the patient's decision-making capacity; 2) identify the legal surrogate; 3) elicit patient values as expressed in completed advance directives; 4) determine patient/surrogate understanding of the life-limiting event and expectant treatment goals; 5) convey physician understanding of the event, including prognosis, treatment options, and recommendation; 6) share decisions regarding withdrawing or withholding of resuscitative efforts, using available resources and considering options for organ donation; and 7) revise treatment goals as needed. Emergency physicians should break bad news compassionately, yet sufficiently, so that surrogate and family understand both the gravity of the situation and the lack of long-term benefit of continued life-sustaining interventions. EPs should also help the surrogate and family understand that palliative care addresses comfort needs of the patient including adequate treatment for pain, dyspnea, or anxiety. Part I of this communications model reviews determination of decision-making capacity, surrogacy laws, and advance directives, including legal definitions and application of these steps; Part II (which will appear in a future issue of AEM) covers communication moving from resuscitative to end-of-life and palliative treatment. EPs should recognize acute devastating illness or injuries, when appropriate, as opportunities to initiate end-of-life discussions and to

  13. A model for emergency department end-of-life communications after acute devastating events--part I: decision-making capacity, surrogates, and advance directives.

    PubMed

    Limehouse, Walter E; Feeser, V Ramana; Bookman, Kelly J; Derse, Arthur

    2012-09-01

    Making decisions for a patient affected by sudden devastating illness or injury traumatizes a patient's family and loved ones. Even in the absence of an emergency, surrogates making end-of-life treatment decisions may experience negative emotional effects. Helping surrogates with these end-of-life decisions under emergent conditions requires the emergency physician (EP) to be clear, making medical recommendations with sensitivity. This model for emergency department (ED) end-of-life communications after acute devastating events comprises the following steps: 1) determine the patient's decision-making capacity; 2) identify the legal surrogate; 3) elicit patient values as expressed in completed advance directives; 4) determine patient/surrogate understanding of the life-limiting event and expectant treatment goals; 5) convey physician understanding of the event, including prognosis, treatment options, and recommendation; 6) share decisions regarding withdrawing or withholding of resuscitative efforts, using available resources and considering options for organ donation; and 7) revise treatment goals as needed. Emergency physicians should break bad news compassionately, yet sufficiently, so that surrogate and family understand both the gravity of the situation and the lack of long-term benefit of continued life-sustaining interventions. EPs should also help the surrogate and family understand that palliative care addresses comfort needs of the patient including adequate treatment for pain, dyspnea, or anxiety. Part I of this communications model reviews determination of decision-making capacity, surrogacy laws, and advance directives, including legal definitions and application of these steps; Part II (which will appear in a future issue of AEM) covers communication moving from resuscitative to end-of-life and palliative treatment. EPs should recognize acute devastating illness or injuries, when appropriate, as opportunities to initiate end-of-life discussions and to

  14. Beauty and the beast: Some perspectives on efficient model analysis, surrogate models, and the future of modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, M. C.; Jakeman, J.; Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.

    2015-12-01

    For many environmental systems model runtimes have remained very long as more capable computers have been used to add more processes and more time and space discretization. Scientists have also added more parameters and kinds of observations, and many model runs are needed to explore the models. Computational demand equals run time multiplied by number of model runs divided by parallelization opportunities. Model exploration is conducted using sensitivity analysis, optimization, and uncertainty quantification. Sensitivity analysis is used to reveal consequences of what may be very complex simulated relations, optimization is used to identify parameter values that fit the data best, or at least better, and uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the precision of simulated results. The long execution times make such analyses a challenge. Methods for addressing this challenges include computationally frugal analysis of the demanding original model and a number of ingenious surrogate modeling methods. Both commonly use about 50-100 runs of the demanding original model. In this talk we consider the tradeoffs between (1) original model development decisions, (2) computationally frugal analysis of the original model, and (3) using many model runs of the fast surrogate model. Some questions of interest are as follows. If the added processes and discretization invested in (1) are compared with the restrictions and approximations in model analysis produced by long model execution times, is there a net benefit related of the goals of the model? Are there changes to the numerical methods that could reduce the computational demands while giving up less fidelity than is compromised by using computationally frugal methods or surrogate models for model analysis? Both the computationally frugal methods and surrogate models require that the solution of interest be a smooth function of the parameters or interest. How does the information obtained from the local methods typical

  15. Motion prediction in MRI-guided radiotherapy based on interleaved orthogonal cine-MRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregni, M.; Paganelli, C.; Lee, D.; Greer, P. B.; Baroni, G.; Keall, P. J.; Riboldi, M.

    2016-01-01

    In-room cine-MRI guidance can provide non-invasive target localization during radiotherapy treatment. However, in order to cope with finite imaging frequency and system latencies between target localization and dose delivery, tumour motion prediction is required. This work proposes a framework for motion prediction dedicated to cine-MRI guidance, aiming at quantifying the geometric uncertainties introduced by this process for both tumour tracking and beam gating. The tumour position, identified through scale invariant features detected in cine-MRI slices, is estimated at high-frequency (25 Hz) using three independent predictors, one for each anatomical coordinate. Linear extrapolation, auto-regressive and support vector machine algorithms are compared against systems that use no prediction or surrogate-based motion estimation. Geometric uncertainties are reported as a function of image acquisition period and system latency. Average results show that the tracking error RMS can be decreased down to a [0.2; 1.2] mm range, for acquisition periods between 250 and 750 ms and system latencies between 50 and 300 ms. Except for the linear extrapolator, tracking and gating prediction errors were, on average, lower than those measured for surrogate-based motion estimation. This finding suggests that cine-MRI guidance, combined with appropriate prediction algorithms, could relevantly decrease geometric uncertainties in motion compensated treatments.

  16. Motion prediction in MRI-guided radiotherapy based on interleaved orthogonal cine-MRI.

    PubMed

    Seregni, M; Paganelli, C; Lee, D; Greer, P B; Baroni, G; Keall, P J; Riboldi, M

    2016-01-21

    In-room cine-MRI guidance can provide non-invasive target localization during radiotherapy treatment. However, in order to cope with finite imaging frequency and system latencies between target localization and dose delivery, tumour motion prediction is required. This work proposes a framework for motion prediction dedicated to cine-MRI guidance, aiming at quantifying the geometric uncertainties introduced by this process for both tumour tracking and beam gating. The tumour position, identified through scale invariant features detected in cine-MRI slices, is estimated at high-frequency (25 Hz) using three independent predictors, one for each anatomical coordinate. Linear extrapolation, auto-regressive and support vector machine algorithms are compared against systems that use no prediction or surrogate-based motion estimation. Geometric uncertainties are reported as a function of image acquisition period and system latency. Average results show that the tracking error RMS can be decreased down to a [0.2; 1.2] mm range, for acquisition periods between 250 and 750 ms and system latencies between 50 and 300 ms. Except for the linear extrapolator, tracking and gating prediction errors were, on average, lower than those measured for surrogate-based motion estimation. This finding suggests that cine-MRI guidance, combined with appropriate prediction algorithms, could relevantly decrease geometric uncertainties in motion compensated treatments.

  17. Compaction behavior of surrogate degraded emplaced WIPP waste.

    SciTech Connect

    Broome, Scott Thomas; Bronowski, David R.; Kuthakun, Souvanny James; Pfeifle, Thomas W.; Herrick, Courtney Grant

    2014-03-01

    The present study results are focused on laboratory testing of surrogate waste materials. The surrogate wastes correspond to a conservative estimate of degraded Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) containers and TRU waste materials at the end of the 10,000 year regulatory period. Testing consists of hydrostatic, triaxial, and uniaxial strain tests performed on surrogate waste recipes that were previously developed by Hansen et al. (1997). These recipes can be divided into materials that simulate 50% and 100% degraded waste by weight. The percent degradation indicates the anticipated amount of iron corrosion, as well as the decomposition of cellulosics, plastics, and rubbers (CPR). Axial, lateral, and volumetric strain and axial, lateral, and pore stress measurements were made. Two unique testing techniques were developed during the course of the experimental program. The first involves the use of dilatometry to measure sample volumetric strain under a hydrostatic condition. Bulk moduli of the samples measured using this technique were consistent with those measured using more conventional methods. The second technique involved performing triaxial tests under lateral strain control. By limiting the lateral strain to zero by controlling the applied confining pressure while loading the specimen axially in compression, one can maintain a right-circular cylindrical geometry even under large deformations. This technique is preferred over standard triaxial testing methods which result in inhomogeneous deformation or (3z(Bbarreling(3y. (BManifestations of the inhomogeneous deformation included non-uniform stress states, as well as unrealistic Poissons ratios (> 0.5) or those that vary significantly along the length of the specimen. Zero lateral strain controlled tests yield a more uniform stress state, and admissible and uniform values of Poissons ratio.

  18. Implementation Plan: Jasper Management Prestart Review (Surrogate Material Experiments)

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, W.E.

    2000-09-29

    Able Site is located 24 km northwest of Mercury on the Nevada Test Site. The Nevada Test Site is approximately 105 km northwest of Las Vegas, NV. Major facilities at Able Site include Buildings 5100,5180, and 5191. Significant external interfaces for the JASPER site include the electrical system, wastewater system, communications systems, and water supply system, which provides both potable and fire-protection water. Support services, which are provided on the Nevada Test Site, include medical, emergency response (NTS Fire Department), radiation protection, industrial hygiene, and waste management. Although JASPER will ultimately be used for actinide research, the start-up process requires system demonstration using surrogates in place of the actinide targets. LLNL Nevada Experiments and Operations (N) Program has established a Management Prestart Review (MPR) team to determine the readiness of the JASPER personnel and facilities to initiate surrogate-material experiments. A second MPR will be conducted before actinide experiments are executed. This document addresses implementation requirements for only the first MPR. This first review coincides with the completion of authorization-basis documents and physical subsystems, which have undergone appropriate formal engineering design reviews. This MPR will affirm the quality of those reviews, their findings/resolutions, and will look most closely at systems integration requirements and demonstrations that will have undergone technical acceptance reviews before this formal MPR action. Closure of MPR findings will finalize requirements for a DOE/NV Real Estate/Operations Permit (REOP) for surrogate-material experiments. Upon completion of that experiment series and the establishment of capabilities for incorporating special nuclear material (SNM) into future experiments, the team will convene again as part of the process of authorizing those activities. A summary of the review schedule is provided.

  19. Mechanical Properties of Nuclear Fuel Surrogates using Picosecond Laser Ultrasonics

    SciTech Connect

    David Hurley; Marat Khafizov; Farhad Farzbod; Eric Burgett

    2013-05-01

    Detailed understanding between microstructure evolution and mechanical properties is important for designing new high burnup nuclear fuels. In this presentation we discuss the use of picosecond ultrasonics to measure localize changes in mechanical properties of fuel surrogates. We develop measurement techniques that can be applied to investigate heterogeneous elastic properties caused by localize changes in chemistry, grain microstructure caused by recrystallization, and mechanical properties of small samples prepared using focused ion beam sample preparation. Emphasis is placed on understanding the relationship between microstructure and mechanical properties

  20. Surrogate-equation technique for simulation of steady inviscid flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, G. M.

    1981-01-01

    A numerical procedure for the iterative solution of inviscid flow problems is described, and its utility for the calculation of steady subsonic and transonic flow fields is demonstrated. Application of the surrogate equation technique defined herein allows the formulation of stable, fully conservative, type dependent finite difference equations for use in obtaining numerical solutions to systems of first order partial differential equations, such as the steady state Euler equations. Steady, two dimensional solutions to the Euler equations for both subsonic, rotational flow and supersonic flow and to the small disturbance equations for transonic flow are presented.

  1. Ppb detection of Sarin surrogate in liquid solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, Matthieu; Hamoniaux, Jennifer; Rocha, Licinio; Normand, Stéphane

    2013-05-01

    Sarin, a well-known chemical warfare agent, is toxic for concentrations as low as 0.03 ppm in the air (Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health value). A technology providing "on the field" detection could be fluorescence spectroscopy. This presentation shows a sensitive method for the detection of Diethyl Chlorophosphate (DCP), a Sarin surrogate, which provides in a few seconds a turn-off fluorescence response of the sensor for ppb levels of DCP. For instance, a I/I0 = 0.68 (fluorescence quenching) was obtained when the sensor was exposed to 16 ppb of DCP.

  2. One mum too few: maternal status in host surrogate motherhood arrangements.

    PubMed

    Oultram, Stuart

    2015-06-01

    In a host surrogate motherhood arrangement, the surrogate agrees to be implanted with, and carry to term, an embryo created from the commissioning couple's gametes. When the surrogate child is born, it is the surrogate mother who, according to UK law, holds the legal status of mother. By contrast, the commissioning mother possesses no maternal status and she can only attain it once the surrogate agrees to the completion of the arrangement. One consequence of this is that, in the event that a host arrangement fails, the commissioning mother is left without maternal status. In this paper, I argue that this denial of maternal status misrepresents the commissioning mother's role in the host arrangement and her relationship with the surrogate child. Consequently, I suggest that commissioning mothers participating in host surrogacy arrangements ought to be granted the status of mother in the event that the arrangement fails.

  3. Diesel Surrogate Fuels for Engine Testing and Chemical-Kinetic Modeling: Compositions and Properties

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, Charles J.; Cannella, William J.; Bays, J. Timothy; Bruno, Thomas J.; DeFabio, Kathy; Dettman, Heather D.; Gieleciak, Rafal M.; Huber, Marcia L.; Kweon, Chol-Bum; McConnell, Steven S.; Pitz, William J.; Ratcliff, Matthew A.

    2016-01-01

    The primary objectives of this work were to formulate, blend, and characterize a set of four ultralow-sulfur diesel surrogate fuels in quantities sufficient to enable their study in single-cylinder-engine and combustion-vessel experiments. The surrogate fuels feature increasing levels of compositional accuracy (i.e., increasing exactness in matching hydrocarbon structural characteristics) relative to the single target diesel fuel upon which the surrogate fuels are based. This approach was taken to assist in determining the minimum level of surrogate-fuel compositional accuracy that is required to adequately emulate the performance characteristics of the target fuel under different combustion modes. For each of the four surrogate fuels, an approximately 30 L batch was blended, and a number of the physical and chemical properties were measured. This work documents the surrogate-fuel creation process and the results of the property measurements. PMID:27330248

  4. Gene signatures associated with mouse postnatal hindbrain neural stem cells and medulloblastoma cancer stem cells identify novel molecular mediators and predict human medulloblastoma molecular classification.

    PubMed

    Corno, Daniela; Daniela, Corno; Pala, Mauro; Cominelli, Manuela; Cipelletti, Barbara; Leto, Ketty; Croci, Laura; Barili, Valeria; Brandalise, Federico; Melzi, Raffaella; Di Gregorio, Alessandra; Sergi, Lucia Sergi; Politi, Letterio Salvatore; Piemonti, Lorenzo; Bulfone, Alessandro; Rossi, Paola; Rossi, Ferdinando; Consalez, Gian Giacomo; Poliani, Pietro Luigi; Galli, Rossella

    2012-06-01

    Medulloblastoma arises from mutations occurring in stem/progenitor cells located in restricted hindbrain territories. Here we report that the mouse postnatal ventricular zone lining the IV ventricle also harbors bona fide stem cells that, remarkably, share the same molecular profile with cerebellar white matter-derived neural stem cells (NSC). To identify novel molecular mediators involved in medulloblastomagenesis, we compared these distinct postnatal hindbrain-derived NSC populations, which are potentially tumor initiating, with murine compound Ptch/p53 mutant medulloblastoma cancer stem cells (CSC) that faithfully phenocopy the different variants of human medulloblastoma in vivo. Transcriptome analysis of both hindbrain NSCs and medulloblastoma CSCs resulted in the generation of well-defined gene signatures, each reminiscent of a specific human medulloblastoma molecular subclass. Most interestingly, medulloblastoma CSCs upregulated developmentally related genes, such as Ebfs, that were shown to be highly expressed in human medulloblastomas and play a pivotal role in experimental medullo-blastomagenesis. These data indicate that gene expression analysis of medulloblastoma CSCs holds great promise not only for understanding functional differences between distinct CSC populations but also for identifying meaningful signatures that might stratify medulloblastoma patients beyond histopathologic staging.

  5. Ichthyophonus parasite phylogeny based on ITS rDNA structure prediction and alignment identifies six clades, with a single dominant marine type.

    PubMed

    Gregg, Jacob L; Powers, Rachel L; Purcell, Maureen K; Friedman, Carolyn S; Hershberger, Paul K

    2016-07-01

    Despite their widespread, global impact in both wild and cultured fishes, little is known of the diversity, transmission patterns, and phylogeography of parasites generally identified as Ichthyophonus. This study constructed a phylogeny based on the structural alignment of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA sequences to compare Ichthyophonus isolates from fish hosts in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and several rivers and aquaculture sites in North America, Europe, and Japan. Structure of the Ichthyophonus ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 transcript exhibited several homologies with other eukaryotes, and 6 distinct clades were identified within Ichthyophonus. A single clade contained a majority (71 of 98) of parasite isolations. This ubiquitous Ichthyophonus type occurred in 13 marine and anadromous hosts and was associated with epizootics in Atlantic herring, Chinook salmon, and American shad. A second clade contained all isolates from aquaculture, despite great geographic separation of the freshwater hosts. Each of the 4 remaining clades contained isolates from single host species. This study is the first to evaluate the genetic relationships among Ichthyophonus species across a significant portion of their host and geographic range. Additionally, parasite infection prevalence is reported in 16 fish species.

  6. Ichthyophonus parasite phylogeny based on ITS rDNA structure prediction and alignment identifies six clades, with a single dominant marine type.

    PubMed

    Gregg, Jacob L; Powers, Rachel L; Purcell, Maureen K; Friedman, Carolyn S; Hershberger, Paul K

    2016-07-01

    Despite their widespread, global impact in both wild and cultured fishes, little is known of the diversity, transmission patterns, and phylogeography of parasites generally identified as Ichthyophonus. This study constructed a phylogeny based on the structural alignment of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA sequences to compare Ichthyophonus isolates from fish hosts in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and several rivers and aquaculture sites in North America, Europe, and Japan. Structure of the Ichthyophonus ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 transcript exhibited several homologies with other eukaryotes, and 6 distinct clades were identified within Ichthyophonus. A single clade contained a majority (71 of 98) of parasite isolations. This ubiquitous Ichthyophonus type occurred in 13 marine and anadromous hosts and was associated with epizootics in Atlantic herring, Chinook salmon, and American shad. A second clade contained all isolates from aquaculture, despite great geographic separation of the freshwater hosts. Each of the 4 remaining clades contained isolates from single host species. This study is the first to evaluate the genetic relationships among Ichthyophonus species across a significant portion of their host and geographic range. Additionally, parasite infection prevalence is reported in 16 fish species. PMID:27409236

  7. Ichthyophonus parasite phylogeny based on ITS rDNA structure prediction and alignment identifies six clades, with a single dominant marine type

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gregg, Jacob; Thompson, Rachel L.; Purcell, Maureen; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Hershberger, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Despite their widespread, global impact in both wild and cultured fishes, little is known of the diversity, transmission patterns, and phylogeography of parasites generally identified as Ichthyophonus. This study constructed a phylogeny based on the structural alignment of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA sequences to compare Ichthyophonus isolates from fish hosts in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and several rivers and aquaculture sites in North America, Europe, and Japan. Structure of the Ichthyophonus ITS1–5.8S–ITS2 transcript exhibited several homologies with other eukaryotes, and 6 distinct clades were identified within Ichthyophonus. A single clade contained a majority (71 of 98) of parasite isolations. This ubiquitous Ichthyophonus type occurred in 13 marine and anadromous hosts and was associated with epizootics in Atlantic herring, Chinook salmon, and American shad. A second clade contained all isolates from aquaculture, despite great geographic separation of the freshwater hosts. Each of the 4 remaining clades contained isolates from single host species. This study is the first to evaluate the genetic relationships among Ichthyophonus species across a significant portion of their host and geographic range. Additionally, parasite infection prevalence is reported in 16 fish species.

  8. A Radio-genomics Approach for Identifying High Risk Estrogen Receptor-positive Breast Cancers on DCE-MRI: Preliminary Results in Predicting OncotypeDX Risk Scores.

    PubMed

    Wan, Tao; Bloch, B Nicolas; Plecha, Donna; Thompson, CheryI L; Gilmore, Hannah; Jaffe, Carl; Harris, Lyndsay; Madabhushi, Anant

    2016-01-01

    To identify computer extracted imaging features for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers on dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE)-MRI that are correlated with the low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. We collected 96 ER-positive breast lesions with low (< 18, N = 55) and high (> 30, N = 41) OncotypeDX recurrence scores. Each lesion was quantitatively characterize via 6 shape features, 3 pharmacokinetics, 4 enhancement kinetics, 4 intensity kinetics, 148 textural kinetics, 5 dynamic histogram of oriented gradient (DHoG), and 6 dynamic local binary pattern (DLBP) features. The extracted features were evaluated by a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier in terms of their ability to distinguish low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. Classification performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (Az). The DHoG and DLBP achieved Az values of 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. The 6 top features identified via feature selection were subsequently combined with the LDA classifier to yield an Az of 0.87. The correlation analysis showed that DHoG (ρ = 0.85, P < 0.001) and DLBP (ρ = 0.83, P < 0.01) were significantly associated with the low and high risk classifications from the OncotypeDX assay. Our results indicated that computer extracted texture features of DCE-MRI were highly correlated with the high and low OncotypeDX risk categories for ER-positive cancers. PMID:26887643

  9. Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

    2016-05-01

    An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

  10. Use of surrogate technologies to estimate suspended sediment in the Clearwater River, Idaho, and Snake River, Washington, 2008-10

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Molly S.; Teasdale, Gregg N.

    2013-01-01

    Elevated levels of fluvial sediment can reduce the biological productivity of aquatic systems, impair freshwater quality, decrease reservoir storage capacity, and decrease the capacity of hydraulic structures. The need to measure fluvial sediment has led to the development of sediment surrogate technologies, particularly in locations where streamflow alone is not a good estimator of sediment load because of regulated flow, load hysteresis, episodic sediment sources, and non-equilibrium sediment transport. An effective surrogate technology is low maintenance and sturdy over a range of hydrologic conditions, and measured variables can be modeled to estimate suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), load, and duration of elevated levels on a real-time basis. Among the most promising techniques is the measurement of acoustic backscatter strength using acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) deployed in rivers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, evaluated the use of acoustic backscatter, turbidity, laser diffraction, and streamflow as surrogates for estimating real-time SSC and loads in the Clearwater and Snake Rivers, which adjoin in Lewiston, Idaho, and flow into Lower Granite Reservoir. The study was conducted from May 2008 to September 2010 and is part of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Lower Snake River Programmatic Sediment Management Plan to identify and manage sediment sources in basins draining into lower Snake River reservoirs. Commercially available acoustic instruments have shown great promise in sediment surrogate studies because they require little maintenance and measure profiles of the surrogate parameter across a sampling volume rather than at a single point. The strength of acoustic backscatter theoretically increases as more particles are suspended in the water to reflect the acoustic pulse emitted by the ADVM. ADVMs of different frequencies (0.5, 1.5, and 3 Megahertz) were tested to

  11. Modeling Pancreatic Tumor Motion Using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Surrogate Markers

    SciTech Connect

    Huguet, Florence; Yorke, Ellen D.; Davidson, Margaret; Zhang, Zhigang; Jackson, Andrew; Mageras, Gig S.; Wu, Abraham J.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2015-03-01

    Purpose: To assess intrafractional positional variations of pancreatic tumors using 4-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT), their impact on gross tumor volume (GTV) coverage, the reliability of biliary stent, fiducial seeds, and the real-time position management (RPM) external marker as tumor surrogates for setup of respiratory gated treatment, and to build a correlative model of tumor motion. Methods and Materials: We analyzed the respiration-correlated 4D-CT images acquired during simulation of 36 patients with either a biliary stent (n=16) or implanted fiducials (n=20) who were treated with RPM respiratory gated intensity modulated radiation therapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer. Respiratory displacement relative to end-exhalation was measured for the GTV, the biliary stent, or fiducial seeds, and the RPM marker. The results were compared between the full respiratory cycle and the gating interval. Linear mixed model was used to assess the correlation of GTV motion with the potential surrogate markers. Results: The average ± SD GTV excursions were 0.3 ± 0.2 cm in the left-right direction, 0.6 ± 0.3 cm in the anterior-posterior direction, and 1.3 ± 0.7 cm in the superior-inferior direction. Gating around end-exhalation reduced GTV motion by 46% to 60%. D95% was at least the prescribed 56 Gy in 76% of patients. GTV displacement was associated with the RPM marker, the biliary stent, and the fiducial seeds. The correlation was better with fiducial seeds and with biliary stent. Conclusions: Respiratory gating reduced the margin necessary for radiation therapy for pancreatic tumors. GTV motion was well correlated with biliary stent or fiducial seed displacements, validating their use as surrogates for daily assessment of GTV position during treatment. A patient-specific internal target volume based on 4D-CT is recommended both for gated and not-gated treatment; otherwise, our model can be used to predict the degree of GTV motion.

  12. Enumerating Pathogenic Microorganism Surrogates for Groundwater Experiments Using Solid-Phase Cytometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevenson, M. E.; Blaschke, A. P.; Kirschner, A.

    2010-12-01

    Regulators need a dependable method that would enable them to calculate with confidence the setback distance of a drinking water well from a potential point of contamination. Since it is not permissible to perform field tests using pathogenic microorganisms, it is necessary to predict the transport of dangerous microbes in a different way, using surrogates. One such surrogate method involves using bacteriophages, which are viruses that are pathogenic to bacteria, but are not dangerous to humans. Another possible surrogate to model the potential travel time of microbial contamination is the use of synthetic microspheres; we will test microspheres ranging in size from 0.025 to 1 µm. The constraining factor for comparing the transport of microspheres and bacteriophages is the detection limit of the measuring apparatus. Appropriate