[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

PubMed

Long, Randall W; Bush, Susan E; Grady, Kevin C; Smith, David S; Potts, Daniel L; D'Antonio, Carla M; Dudley, Tom L; Fehlberg, Shannon D; Gaskin, John F; Glenn, Edward P; Hultine, Kevin R

2017-01-01

Patterns of woody-plant mortality have been linked to global-scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought, heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Although many studies have focussed on survival and mortality in response to specific physiological stresses, little attention has been paid to the role of genetic heritability of traits and local adaptation in influencing patterns of plant mortality, especially in non-native species. Tamarix spp. is a dominant, non-native riparian tree in western North America that is experiencing dieback in some areas of its range due to episodic herbivory by the recently introduced northern tamarisk leaf beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ). We propose that genotype × environment interactions largely underpin current and future patterns of Tamarix mortality. We anticipate that (i) despite its recent introduction, and the potential for significant gene flow, Tamarix in western North America is generally adapted to local environmental conditions across its current range in part due to hybridization of two species; (ii) local adaptation to specific climate, soil and resource availability will yield predictable responses to episodic herbivory; and (iii) the ability to cope with a combination of episodic herbivory and increased aridity associated with climate change will be largely based on functional tradeoffs in resource allocation. This review focusses on the potential heritability of plant carbon allocation patterns in Tamarix , focussing on the relative contribution of acquired carbon to non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools versus other sinks as the basis for surviving episodic disturbance. Where high aridity and/or poor edaphic position lead to chronic stress, NSC pools may fall below a minimum threshold because of an imbalance between the supply of carbon and its demand by various sinks. Identifying patterns of local adaptation of traits related to resource allocation will improve forecasting of Tamarix population susceptibility to episodic herbivory.

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

PubMed Central

Bush, Susan E.; Grady, Kevin C.; Smith, David S.; Potts, Daniel L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Dudley, Tom L.; Fehlberg, Shannon D.; Gaskin, John F.; Glenn, Edward P.; Hultine, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Abstract Patterns of woody-plant mortality have been linked to global-scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought, heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Although many studies have focussed on survival and mortality in response to specific physiological stresses, little attention has been paid to the role of genetic heritability of traits and local adaptation in influencing patterns of plant mortality, especially in non-native species. Tamarix spp. is a dominant, non-native riparian tree in western North America that is experiencing dieback in some areas of its range due to episodic herbivory by the recently introduced northern tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata). We propose that genotype × environment interactions largely underpin current and future patterns of Tamarix mortality. We anticipate that (i) despite its recent introduction, and the potential for significant gene flow, Tamarix in western North America is generally adapted to local environmental conditions across its current range in part due to hybridization of two species; (ii) local adaptation to specific climate, soil and resource availability will yield predictable responses to episodic herbivory; and (iii) the ability to cope with a combination of episodic herbivory and increased aridity associated with climate change will be largely based on functional tradeoffs in resource allocation. This review focusses on the potential heritability of plant carbon allocation patterns in Tamarix, focussing on the relative contribution of acquired carbon to non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools versus other sinks as the basis for surviving episodic disturbance. Where high aridity and/or poor edaphic position lead to chronic stress, NSC pools may fall below a minimum threshold because of an imbalance between the supply of carbon and its demand by various sinks. Identifying patterns of local adaptation of traits related to resource allocation will improve forecasting of Tamarix population susceptibility to episodic herbivory. PMID:28852513

Antibiotic prescription patterns in the empiric therapy of severe sepsis: combination of antimicrobials with different mechanisms of action reduces mortality.

PubMed

Díaz-Martín, Ana; Martínez-González, María Luisa; Ferrer, Ricard; Ortiz-Leyba, Carlos; Piacentini, Enrique; Lopez-Pueyo, Maria Jesus; Martín-Loeches, Ignacio; Levy, Mitchell M; Artigas, Antoni; Garnacho-Montero, José

2012-11-18

Although early institution of adequate antimicrobial therapy is lifesaving in sepsis patients, optimal antimicrobial strategy has not been established. Moreover, the benefit of combination therapy over monotherapy remains to be determined. Our aims are to describe patterns of empiric antimicrobial therapy in severe sepsis, assessing the impact of combination therapy, including antimicrobials with different mechanisms of action, on mortality. This is a Spanish national multicenter study, analyzing all patients admitted to ICUs who received antibiotics within the first 6 hours of diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock. Antibiotic-prescription patterns in community-acquired infections and nosocomial infections were analyzed separately and compared. We compared the impact on mortality of empiric antibiotic treatment, including antibiotics with different mechanisms of action, termed different-class combination therapy (DCCT), with that of monotherapy and any other combination therapy possibilities (non-DCCT). We included 1,372 patients, 1,022 (74.5%) of whom had community-acquired sepsis and 350 (25.5%) of whom had nosocomial sepsis. The most frequently prescribed antibiotic agents were β-lactams (902, 65.7%) and carbapenems (345, 25.1%). DCCT was administered to 388 patients (28.3%), whereas non-DCCT was administered to 984 (71.7%). The mortality rate was significantly lower in patients administered DCCTs than in those who were administered non-DCCTs (34% versus 40%; P = 0.042). The variables independently associated with mortality were age, male sex, APACHE II score, and community origin of the infection. DCCT was a protective factor against in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 0.699; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.522 to 0.936; P = 0.016), as was urologic focus of infection (OR, 0.241; 95% CI, 0.102 to 0.569; P = 0.001). β-Lactams, including carbapenems, are the most frequently prescribed antibiotics in empiric therapy in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Administering a combination of antimicrobials with different mechanisms of action is associated with decreased mortality.

The importance of drought-pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Gu, Lianhong

2018-01-01

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought-pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and ‘background’ mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought-pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesized (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought-Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought-pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.

The importance of drought–pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

DOE PAGES

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie; ...

2017-10-20

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought–pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and 'background' mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought–pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesizedmore » (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought–Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought–pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.« less

The importance of drought–pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought–pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and 'background' mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought–pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesizedmore » (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought–Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought–pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.« less

Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

PubMed

Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

2017-07-01

Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies.

PubMed

Parr, Nick; Li, Jackie; Tickle, Leonie

2016-07-01

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.

Growing up in wartime: Evidence from the era of two world wars.

PubMed

Havari, Enkelejda; Peracchi, Franco

2017-05-01

We document the association between war-related shocks in childhood and adult outcomes for Europeans born during the first half of the twentieth century. Using a variety of data, at both the macro- and the micro-level, we address the following questions: What are the patterns of mortality among Europeans born during this period? Do war-related shocks in childhood and adolescence help predict adult health, human capital and wellbeing of the survivors? Are there differences by sex, socio-economic status in childhood, and age when the shocks occurred? At the macro-level, we show that the secular trend towards lower mortality was interrupted by dramatic increases in mortality during World War I, the Spanish Flu, the Spanish Civil War, and World War II, and we quantify the size of these mortality shocks. Different patterns characterize these high-mortality episodes, with substantial variation by country, sex and age group. At the micro-level, we show that war-related hardship in childhood or adolescence, in particular exposure to war events and experience of hunger, is associated with worse physical and mental health, education, cognitive ability and subjective wellbeing at older ages. The strength of the association differs by sex and type of hardship, with war exposure being more important for females and experience of hunger for males. We also show that hardships matter more if experienced in childhood, and have stronger consequences if they last longer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Military Service and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in a Population-based Cohort

PubMed Central

Cudkowicz, Merit E.; Johnson, Norman

2015-01-01

Background: Military service has been suggested to be associated with an increased risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but only one prospective study—of a volunteer cohort—has examined this question. Methods: We prospectively assessed the relation between service in the military and ALS mortality among participants in the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, a population-representative cohort of U.S. men and women surveyed from 1973 through 2002. Participant follow-up was conducted from 1979 through 2002 for ALS mortality. There were 696,743 men and 392,571 women who were 25 years old or more with military service data. In this group, there were 375 male ALS deaths and 96 female ALS deaths. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards. Results: Men who served in the military had an increased adjusted ALS death rate [HR: 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 1.53] compared with those who did not serve. An increase in ALS mortality was found among those who served during World War II (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.91) but not during other time periods. This pattern of results was similar for women, but with larger confidence intervals (HR for military service: 1.26; 95% CI: 0.29, 5.59; HR for service during World War II: 2.03; 95% CI: 0.45, 9.05). Conclusions: Military personnel have an increased risk of ALS, which may be specific to certain service periods although there was no data on actual deployment. Because of the longer follow-up time for World War II veterans, we cannot rule out that increased risk for those who served during other periods would be seen with further follow-up. PMID:26414854

Survival and weak chaos.

PubMed

Nee, Sean

2018-05-01

Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing per capita mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as 'infant mortality'. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the same system. First, infant mortality- sensu engineering-without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy.

Dual impact of temperature on growth and mortality of marine fish larvae in a shallow estuarine habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arula, Timo; Laur, Kerli; Simm, Mart; Ojaveer, Henn

2015-12-01

High individual growth and mortality rates of herring Clupea harengus membras and goby Pomatoschistus spp. larvae were observed in the estuarine habitat of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. Both instantaneous mortality (0.76-1.05) as well as growth rate (0.41-0.82 mm day-1) of larval herring were amongst highest observed elsewhere previously. Mortality rates of goby larvae were also high (0.57-1.05), while first ever data on growth rates were provided in this study (0.23-0.35 mm day-1). Our study also evidenced that higher growth rate of marine fish larvae did not result in lower mortalities. We suggest that high growth and mortality rates primarily resulted from a rapidly increasing and high (>18 °C) water temperature that masked potential food-web effects. The explanation for observed patterns lies in the interactive manner temperature contributed: i) facilitating prey production, which supported high growth rate and decreased mortalities; ii) exceeding physiological thermal optimum of larvae, which resulted in decreased growth rate and generally high mortalities. Our investigation suggests that the projected climate warming may have significant effect on early life history stages of the dominating marine fish species inhabiting shallow estuaries.

26 CFR 1.430(h)(3)-2 - Plan-specific substitute mortality tables used to determine present value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... paragraph (c)(1)(ii) of this section. Separate mortality tables must be established for each gender under the plan, and a substitute mortality table is permitted to be established for a gender only if the plan has credible mortality experience with respect to that gender. (ii) Credible mortality experience...

26 CFR 1.430(h)(3)-2 - Plan-specific substitute mortality tables used to determine present value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... paragraph (c)(1)(ii) of this section. Separate mortality tables must be established for each gender under the plan, and a substitute mortality table is permitted to be established for a gender only if the plan has credible mortality experience with respect to that gender. (ii) Credible mortality experience...

26 CFR 1.430(h)(3)-2 - Plan-specific substitute mortality tables used to determine present value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... paragraph (c)(1)(ii) of this section. Separate mortality tables must be established for each gender under the plan, and a substitute mortality table is permitted to be established for a gender only if the plan has credible mortality experience with respect to that gender. (ii) Credible mortality experience...

26 CFR 1.430(h)(3)-2 - Plan-specific substitute mortality tables used to determine present value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... paragraph (c)(1)(ii) of this section. Separate mortality tables must be established for each gender under the plan, and a substitute mortality table is permitted to be established for a gender only if the plan has credible mortality experience with respect to that gender. (ii) Credible mortality experience...

Mortality in Code Blue; can APACHE II and PRISM scores be used as markers for prognostication?

PubMed

Bakan, Nurten; Karaören, Gülşah; Tomruk, Şenay Göksu; Keskin Kayalar, Sinem

2018-03-01

Code blue (CB) is an emergency call system developed to respond to cardiac and respiratory arrest in hospitals. However, in literature, no scoring system has been reported that can predict mortality in CB procedures. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effectiveness of estimated APACHE II and PRISM scores in the prediction of mortality in patients assessed using CB to retrospectively analyze CB calls. We retrospectively examined 1195 patients who were evaluated by the CB team at our hospital between 2009 and 2013. The demographic data of the patients, diagnosis and relevant de-partments, reasons for CB, cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration, mortality calculated from the APACHE II and PRISM scores, and the actual mortality rates were retrospectively record-ed from CB notification forms and the hospital database. In all age groups, there was a significant difference between actual mortality rate and the expected mortality rate as estimated using APACHE II and PRISM scores in CB calls (p<0.05). The actual mortality rate was significantly lower than the expected mortality. APACHE and PRISM scores with the available parameters will not help predict mortality in CB procedures. Therefore, novels scoring systems using different parameters are needed.

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

2014-04-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

[Perioperative mortality and morbidity in the year 2000 in 502 Japanese certified anesthesia-training hospitals: with a special reference to ASA-physical status--report of the Japan Society of Anesthesiologists Committee on Operating Room Safety].

PubMed

Irita, Kazuo; Kawashima, Yasuo; Tsuzaki, Koichi; Iwao, Yasuhide; Kobayashi, Tsutomu; Seo, Norimasa; Goto, Yasuyuki; Morita, Kiyoshi; Shiraishi, Yoshito; Nakao, Yasuo; Tanaka, Yoshifumi; Tosaki, Youko; Dohi, Shuji; Obara, Hidefumi

2002-01-01

Perioperative mortality and morbidity in Japan from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2000 were studied retrospectively. Committee on Operating Room Safety in Japanese Society of Anesthesiologists (JSA) sent confidential questionnaires to 794 certified training hospitals of JSA and received answers from 67.6% of the hospitals. We analyzed their answers with a special reference to ASA physical status (ASA-PS). The total number of anesthesia available for this analysis was 897,733. The percentages of patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E are 38.0, 40.3, 8.5, 0.4, 4.3, 5.3, 2.5, and 0.7%, respectively. Mortality and morbidity from all kinds of causes including anesthetic management, intraoperative events, co-existing diseases, and surgical problems were as follows. The incidences of cardiac arrest (per 10,000 cases of anesthesia) were 1.11, 3.26, 12.25, 54.60, 0.77, 4.46, 21.08 and 217.75 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The incidences of critical events including cardiac arrest, severe hypotension, and severe hypoxemia were 6.89, 20.22, 62.18, 148.21, 6.71, 20.38, 106.72 and 592.21 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The mortality rates (death during anesthesia and within 7 postoperative days) after cardiac arrest were 0.26, 0.77, 3.69, 41.60, 0.00, 1.06, 9.42 and 163.31 per 10,000 cases of anesthesia in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rates were 0.32, 1.38, 9.75, 70.20, 0.26, 2.12, 29.15 and 353.02 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. Overall mortality and morbidity were higher in emergency anesthesia than in elective anesthesia. ASA-PS correlated well with overall mortality and morbidity, regardless of etiology. The incidences of cardiac arrest totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.23, 0.50, 1.32, 0.00, 0.00, 0.85, 2.69 and 4.95 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The incidences of all critical events totally attributable to anesthesia were 3.13, 5.56, 11.46, 5.20, 3.87, 5.94, 13.90 and 14.85 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The mortality rates after cardiac arrest totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.03, 0.03, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.21, 0.45 and 3.30 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rates totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.03, 0.06, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.21, 0.45 and 6.60 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rate totally attributable to anesthesia among patients with good physical status (ASA-PS of I, II, I E, II E) was 0.05. Anesthetic management was mainly responsible for critical events in patients with good physical status, while coexisting diseases were in those with poor physical status. Surgical problems including procedures and massive hemorrhage were the leading causes of mortality in patients with good physical status. We reconfirmed that ASA-PS is useful to predict perioperative mortality and morbidity. It also seems likely that we should make much more efforts to reduce anesthetic morbidity in patients with good physical status, and to improve preanesthetic assessment and preparation in those with poor physical status. Reducing mortality and morbidity from surgical problems is also required for improving perioperative mortality.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

PubMed

Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-11-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitogenic stimulation accelerates influenza-induced mortality by increasing susceptibility of alveolar type II cells to infection

PubMed Central

Noel, John G.; Pitstick, Lori B.; Gardner, Jason C.; Uehara, Yasuaki; Wu, Huixing; Saito, Atsushi; Lewnard, Kara E.; Liu, Huan; White, Mitchell R.; Hartshorn, Kevan L.; McCormack, Francis X.

2017-01-01

Development of pneumonia is the most lethal consequence of influenza, increasing mortality more than 50-fold compared with uncomplicated infection. The spread of viral infection from conducting airways to the alveolar epithelium is therefore a pivotal event in influenza pathogenesis. We found that mitogenic stimulation with keratinocyte growth factor (KGF) markedly accelerated mortality after infectious challenge with influenza A virus (IAV). Coadministration of KGF with IAV markedly accelerated the spread of viral infection from the airways to alveoli compared with challenge with IAV alone, based on spatial and temporal analyses of viral nucleoprotein staining of lung tissue sections and dissociated lung cells. To better define the temporal relationship between KGF administration and susceptibility to IAV infection in vivo, we administered KGF 120, 48, 24, and 0 h before intrapulmonary IAV challenge and assessed the percentages of proliferating and IAV-infected, alveolar type II (AECII) cells in dispersed lung cell populations. Peak AECII infectivity coincided with the timing of KGF administration that also induced peak AECII proliferation. AECII from mice that were given intrapulmonary KGF before isolation and then infected with IAV ex vivo exhibited the same temporal pattern of proliferation and infectious susceptibility. KGF-induced increases in mortality, AECII proliferation, and enhanced IAV susceptibility were all reversed by pretreatment of the animals with the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin before mitogenic stimulation. Taken together, these data suggest mTOR signaling-dependent, mitogenic conditioning of AECII is a determinant of host susceptibility to infection with IAV. PMID:28739896

Mitogenic stimulation accelerates influenza-induced mortality by increasing susceptibility of alveolar type II cells to infection.

PubMed

Nikolaidis, Nikolaos M; Noel, John G; Pitstick, Lori B; Gardner, Jason C; Uehara, Yasuaki; Wu, Huixing; Saito, Atsushi; Lewnard, Kara E; Liu, Huan; White, Mitchell R; Hartshorn, Kevan L; McCormack, Francis X

2017-08-08

Development of pneumonia is the most lethal consequence of influenza, increasing mortality more than 50-fold compared with uncomplicated infection. The spread of viral infection from conducting airways to the alveolar epithelium is therefore a pivotal event in influenza pathogenesis. We found that mitogenic stimulation with keratinocyte growth factor (KGF) markedly accelerated mortality after infectious challenge with influenza A virus (IAV). Coadministration of KGF with IAV markedly accelerated the spread of viral infection from the airways to alveoli compared with challenge with IAV alone, based on spatial and temporal analyses of viral nucleoprotein staining of lung tissue sections and dissociated lung cells. To better define the temporal relationship between KGF administration and susceptibility to IAV infection in vivo, we administered KGF 120, 48, 24, and 0 h before intrapulmonary IAV challenge and assessed the percentages of proliferating and IAV-infected, alveolar type II (AECII) cells in dispersed lung cell populations. Peak AECII infectivity coincided with the timing of KGF administration that also induced peak AECII proliferation. AECII from mice that were given intrapulmonary KGF before isolation and then infected with IAV ex vivo exhibited the same temporal pattern of proliferation and infectious susceptibility. KGF-induced increases in mortality, AECII proliferation, and enhanced IAV susceptibility were all reversed by pretreatment of the animals with the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin before mitogenic stimulation. Taken together, these data suggest mTOR signaling-dependent, mitogenic conditioning of AECII is a determinant of host susceptibility to infection with IAV.

Is a specific oncological scoring system better at predicting the prognosis of cancer patients admitted for an acute medical complication in an intensive care unit than general gravity scores?

PubMed

Berghmans, T; Paesmans, M; Sculier, J P

2004-04-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of a specific oncologic scoring system-the ICU Cancer Mortality model (ICM)-in predicting hospital mortality in comparison to two general severity scores-the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II). All 247 patients admitted for a medical acute complication over an 18-month period in an oncological medical intensive care unit were prospectively registered. Their data, including type of complication, vital status at discharge and cancer characteristics as well as other variables necessary to calculate the three scoring systems were retrospectively assessed. Observed in-hospital mortality was 34%. The predicted in-hospital mortality rate for APACHE II was 32%; SAPS II, 24%; and ICM, 28%. The goodness of fit was inadequate except for the ICM score. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves revealed a better fit for ICM (area 0.79). The maximum correct classification rate was 72% for APACHE II, 74% for SAPS II and 77% for ICM. APACHE II and SAPS II were better at predicting outcome for survivors to hospital discharge, although ICM was better for non-survivors. Two variables were independently predicting the risk of death during hospitalisation: ICM (OR=2.31) and SAPS II (OR=1.05). Gravity scores were the single independent predictors for hospital mortality, and ICM was equivalent to APACHE II and SAPS II.

Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990.

PubMed

Pick, J B; Butler, E W

1998-01-01

This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.

Mortality Prediction Using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Scoring Systems: Is There a Difference?

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Ramesh; Gopichandran, Vijayaprasad; Ranganathan, Lakshmi; Rajagopal, Senthilkumar; Abraham, Babu K; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

2018-01-01

Background: Mortality prediction in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) setting is complex, and there are several scoring systems utilized for this process. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II has been the most widely used scoring system; although, the more recent APACHE IV is considered an updated and advanced prediction model. However, these two systems may not give similar mortality predictions. Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the mortality prediction ability of APACHE II and APACHE IV scoring systems among patients admitted to a tertiary care ICU. Methods: In this prospective longitudinal observational study, APACHE II and APACHE IV scores of ICU patients were computed using an online calculator. The outcome of the ICU admissions for all the patients was collected as discharged or deceased. The data were analyzed to compare the discrimination and calibration of the mortality prediction ability of the two scores. Results: Out of the 1670 patients' data analyzed, the area under the receiver operating characteristic of APACHE II score was 0.906 (95% confidence interval [CI] – 0.890–0.992), and APACHE IV score was 0.881 (95% CI – 0.862–0.890). The mean predicted mortality rate of the study population as given by the APACHE II scoring system was 44.8 ± 26.7 and as given by APACHE IV scoring system was 29.1 ± 28.5. The observed mortality rate was 22.4%. Conclusions: The APACHE II and IV scoring systems have comparable discrimination ability, but the calibration of APACHE IV seems to be better than that of APACHE II. There is a need to recalibrate the scales with weights derived from the Indian population. PMID:29910542

Mortality Prediction Using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Scoring Systems: Is There a Difference?

PubMed

Venkataraman, Ramesh; Gopichandran, Vijayaprasad; Ranganathan, Lakshmi; Rajagopal, Senthilkumar; Abraham, Babu K; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

2018-05-01

Mortality prediction in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) setting is complex, and there are several scoring systems utilized for this process. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II has been the most widely used scoring system; although, the more recent APACHE IV is considered an updated and advanced prediction model. However, these two systems may not give similar mortality predictions. The aim of this study is to compare the mortality prediction ability of APACHE II and APACHE IV scoring systems among patients admitted to a tertiary care ICU. In this prospective longitudinal observational study, APACHE II and APACHE IV scores of ICU patients were computed using an online calculator. The outcome of the ICU admissions for all the patients was collected as discharged or deceased. The data were analyzed to compare the discrimination and calibration of the mortality prediction ability of the two scores. Out of the 1670 patients' data analyzed, the area under the receiver operating characteristic of APACHE II score was 0.906 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.890-0.992), and APACHE IV score was 0.881 (95% CI - 0.862-0.890). The mean predicted mortality rate of the study population as given by the APACHE II scoring system was 44.8 ± 26.7 and as given by APACHE IV scoring system was 29.1 ± 28.5. The observed mortality rate was 22.4%. The APACHE II and IV scoring systems have comparable discrimination ability, but the calibration of APACHE IV seems to be better than that of APACHE II. There is a need to recalibrate the scales with weights derived from the Indian population.

Follow-up studies of world war II and Korean conflict prisoners. III. Mortality to January 1, 1976.

PubMed

Keehn, R J

1980-02-01

Mortality through 1975 in US Army veterans released from prisoner-of-war camps following World War II (Europe, Pacific) and the Korean conflict and in several non-prisoner groups is compared using death rates and standard mortality ratios. The World War II Pacific and Korean conflict experience reveal increased risk of dying among former prisoners which, though diminishing with time, persist for 9 and 13 years, respectively. Mortality from tuberculosis and from trauma contributes to the increase among Pacific ex-prisoners, while for Korea the increase is limited to trauma. An excess of deaths due to cirrhosis of the liver in all three former prisoner groups appeared from about the 10th follow-up year. While the reported mortality experience for World War II spans 30 calendar years and for Korea 22 years, no evidence of increased aging among former prisoners of war is seen in mortality from the chronic and degenerative diseases.

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

PubMed

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender Differences in the Association Between Morbidity and Mortality Among Middle-Aged Men and Women

PubMed Central

Guéguen, Alice; Ferrie, Jane; Shipley, Martin; Martikainen, Pekka; Bonenfant, Sébastien; Goldberg, Marcel; Marmot, Michael

2008-01-01

Objectives. We examined gender differences in mortality, morbidity, and the association between the 2. Methods. We used health data from 2 studies of middle-aged men and women: the British Whitehall II cohort of employees from 20 civil service departments in London and the 1989 French GAZEL (this acronym refers to the French gas and electric companies) of employees of France's national gas and electricity company. Participants were aged 35 to 55 years when assessed for morbidity and followed up for mortality over 17 years. Results. Male mortality was higher than female mortality in Whitehall II (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.91) and the GAZEL cohort (HR = 1.99; CI = 1.66, 2.40). Female excess morbidity was observed for some measures in the Whitehall II data and for 1 measure in the GAZEL data. Only self-reported sickness absence in the Whitehall II data was more strongly associated with mortality among men (P = .01). Conclusions. Mortality was lower among women than among men, but morbidity was not consistently higher. The lack of gender differences in the association between morbidity and mortality suggests that this is not a likely explanation for the gender paradox, which refers to higher morbidity but lower mortality among women than among men. PMID:18235071

Benefits of Bifidobacterium breve M-16V Supplementation in Preterm Neonates - A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Patole, Sanjay K; Rao, Shripada C; Keil, Anthony D; Nathan, Elizabeth A; Doherty, Dorota A; Simmer, Karen N

2016-01-01

Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials report that probiotics reduce the risk of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm neonates. To determine whether routine probiotic supplementation (RPS) to preterm neonates would reduce the incidence of NEC. The incidence of NEC ≥ Stage II and all-cause mortality was compared for an equal period of 24 months 'before' (Epoch 1) and 'after' (Epoch 2) RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V in neonates <34 weeks. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to adjust for relevant confounders. A total of 1755 neonates (Epoch I vs. II: 835 vs. 920) with comparable gestation and birth weights were admitted. There was a significant reduction in NEC ≥ Stage II: 3% vs. 1%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.43 (95%CI: 0.21-0.87); 'NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality': 9% vs. 5%, aOR = 0.53 (95%CI: 0.32-0.88); but not all-cause mortality alone: 7% vs. 4%, aOR = 0.58 (95% CI: 0.31-1.06) in Epoch II. The benefits in neonates <28 weeks did not reach statistical significance: NEC ≥ Stage II: 6% vs. 3%, aOR 0.51 (95%CI: 0.20-1.27), 'NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality', 21% vs. 14%, aOR = 0.59 (95%CI: 0.29-1.18); all-cause mortality: 17% vs. 11%, aOR = 0.63 (95%CI: 0.28-1.41). There was no probiotic sepsis. RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V was associated with decreased NEC≥ Stage II and 'NEC≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality' in neonates <34 weeks. Large sample size is required to assess the potential benefits of RPS in neonates <28 weeks.

Dietary pattern and mortality in Japanese elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: does a vegetable- and fish-rich diet improve mortality? An explanatory study.

PubMed

Iimuro, Satoshi; Yoshimura, Yukio; Umegaki, Hiroyuki; Sakurai, Takashi; Araki, Atsushi; Ohashi, Yasuo; Iijima, Katsuya; Ito, Hideki

2012-04-01

To assess the effect of dietary patterns on all deaths and diabetes-related deaths in the Japanese Elderly Diabetes Intervention Trial (J-EDIT). We investigated relationships between that of overall mortality and dietary pattern, and diabetes-related deaths and dietary pattern as observed among 912 registered cases of the J-EDIT study, which is a prospective follow-up study of elderly Japanese type 2 diabetic patients. Factor analysis with the factor number 3 led to deriving three dietary patterns (healthy type, snack type and greasy type). The relationship between these patterns and overall mortality or diabetes-related death was investigated. Although not statistically significant, there was a lower tendency of overall mortality and diabetes-related deaths for the healthy type dietary pattern. When the tendencies of overall mortality were analyzed for "young-old," who are younger than 75 years-of age, and "old-old" of over 75 years-of-age, the mortality rate for the greasy type and healthy type dietary patterns were nearly the same and higher than the snack type dietary pattern in young-old. In contrast, in old-old, a higher mortality rate was reported for the greasy type dietary pattern and a lower mortality rate was reported for the healthy type dietary pattern. The hazard ratio by Cox regression analysis for greasy type to healthy type in old-old was 3.03 (P = 0.04, CI 1.07-8.57). Furthermore, in old-old, as vegetable consumption increased, the lower the tendency foroverall mortality, and the more fish that was consumed, the overall mortality significantly decreased (P = 0.020) in the tertile. The greasy type dietary pattern with an increased amount of sugar, fat and meat led to poor life prognosis for elderly Japanese type 2 diabetic patients. The healthy type dietary pattern rich in vegetable and fish, which is similar to the Mediterranean diet and Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension diet, was suggested to improve life prognosis. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Patterns of natural mortality in stream-living brown trout (Salmo trutta)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lobon-Cervia, J.; Budy, P.; Mortensen, E.

2012-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that lifetime mortality patterns and their corresponding rates and causal factors differ among populations of stream-living salmonids. To this end, we examined the lifetime mortality patterns of several successive cohorts of two stream-living brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations in Spain and Denmark. In the southern population, we observed a consistent two-phase pattern, in which mortality was negligible during the first half of the lifetime and severe during the rest of the lifetime. In contrast, the northern population demonstrated a three-phase pattern with an earlier phase varying from negligible to severe, followed by a second stage of weak mortality, and lastly by a third life stage of severe mortality. Despite substantial differences in the mortality patterns between the two populations, the combined effect of recruitment (as a proxy of the density-dependent processes occurring during the lifetime) and mean body mass (as a proxy of growth experienced by individuals in a given cohort) explained c. 89% of the total lifetime mortality rates across cohorts and populations. A comparison with other published data on populations of stream-living brown trout within its native range highlighted lifetime mortality patterns of one, two, three and four phases, but also suggested that common patterns may occur in populations that experience similar individual growth and population density. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Warm weather transport of broiler chickens in Manitoba. II. Truck management factors associated with death loss in transit to slaughter.

PubMed

Whiting, Terry L; Drain, Mairead E; Rasali, Drona P

2007-02-01

This observational study was conducted to identify the cause of death and load level factors associated with mortality in 1 090 733 Manitoba broiler chickens transported to slaughter in spring and early summer. Death loss in transit was 0.346% and accounted for 19% of the total carcass condemnation. The death loss pattern was clearly bimodal, with a low death loss in 180 of 198 shipments. Cumulative death loss during the growing phase of production was consistently associated with increased transport mortalities in load level models and when comparing high death loss with low death loss truckloads. High ambient temperature at the time of slaughter and loading density of the truck were the major factors associated with exceptional death loss.

Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

PubMed

Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

2010-02-01

Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

Long-term mortality rates and spatial patterns in an old-growth forest

Treesearch

Emily J. Silver; Shawn Fraver; Anthony W. D' Amato; Tuomas Aakala; Brian J. Palik

2013-01-01

Understanding natural mortality patterns and processes of forest tree species is increasingly important given projected changes in mortality owing to global change. With this need in mind, the rate and spatial pattern of mortality was assessed over an 89-year period in a natural-origin Pinus resinosa (Aiton)-dominated system to assess these processes...

Development of a PICU in Nepal: the experience of the first year.

PubMed

Basnet, Sangita; Shrestha, Shrijana; Ghimire, Amrit; Timila, Dipsal; Gurung, Jeena; Karki, Utkarsha; Adhikari, Neelam; Andoh, Jennifer; Koirala, Janak

2014-09-01

Analysis of hospitalization data can help elucidate the pattern of morbidity and mortality in any given area. Little data exist on critically ill children admitted to hospitals in the resource-limited nation of Nepal. We sought to characterize the profile, management, and mortality of children admitted to one PICU. Retrospective analysis. A newly established PICU in Nepal. All patients between the ages of 0 to 16 years admitted to the PICU from July 2009 to July 2010. None. In 12 months, 126 children were admitted to the PICU including 43% female patients. Sixty-three percent were under 5 years. Twenty-nine percent came from tertiary care hospitals and 38% from rural areas outside Kathmandu. Only 18% were transported by ambulance. Median distance travelled to be admitted was 30 km (interquartile range, 10-193). Highest number of admissions were in spring (40%) followed by summer (25%). Almost half were admitted for shock (45%), particularly septic shock (30%). The second commonest reason for admission was neurologic etiologies (15%). Neonatal admissions were also significant (19%). Mortality was 26% and was significantly associated with septic shock (p < 0.01), mechanical ventilation (p < 0.01), and multiple organ dysfunction (< 0.05). Almost one third of patients required mechanical ventilation; median duration was 4 days (interquartile range, 2-8). Mean length of stay in the hospital was 6.2 days (± 5.3) and median 4 (interquartile range, 2.5-9.0). Median Pediatric Risk of Mortality II score for nonsurvivors was 12 (interquartile range, 7-21), and median Pediatric Index of Mortality II for nonsurvivors was 10 (interquartile range, 3-32). Within a short time of opening, the PICU has been seeing significant numbers of critically ill children. Despite adverse conditions and limited resources, survival of 75% is similar to many units in developing nations. Sepsis was the most common reason for PICU admission and mortality.

Infant mortality decline in Malaysia, 1946-1975: the roles of changes in variables and changes in the structure of relationships.

PubMed

DaVanzo, J; Habicht, J P

1986-05-01

This analysis has identified several factors contributing to the dramatic decline in infant mortality since World War II in Malaysia, as well as one factor that prevented the infant mortality rate from declining even more rapidly. Our main findings are the following: On average, mothers' education more than doubled over the study period, contributing to the decline in their infants' mortality. In addition, the beneficial effect of mothers' education on infant survival appears to have become stronger over the study period. Hence, further advances in education should lead to further improvements in infants' survival prospects. Another analysis of these data (Peterson et al. 1985) found that education is somewhat more influential in affecting child mortality in low-mortality, high-income areas than in the opposite type of areas. Therefore, socioeconomic development may have complemented, instead of substituted for, the the beneficial effect of mothers' education in promoting infant and child survival in Malaysia. Improvements in water and sanitation also contributed to the infant mortality decline, especially for babies who did not breastfeed. However, unlike education, these influences have become less important over time, especially for babies who are not breastfed. Hence, further improvements in water and sanitation, a goal of Malaysia's Rural Environmental Sanitation Programme, may have smaller relative effects on infant mortality than did previous improvements. Targeting such improvements on areas where women breastfeed little or not at all, however, will increase their effectiveness in promoting infant survival. The substantial reductions in breastfeeding that have taken place since World War II have kept the infant mortality rate in Malaysia from declining as rapidly as it would have otherwise. We estimate that, in our sample, the detrimental effects on infant survival of the decline in breastfeeding have more than offset the beneficial effects of improvements in water and sanitation. Unlike some other researchers (e.g., Palloni 1981), we find that changes in fertility levels and in the timing and spacing of births have had negligible effect in explaining the decline in infant mortality within the samples we have considered. We have excluded births to older women from our analysis, however; this exclusion may have led to an understatement of the influence of changes in the age pattern of childbearing.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Mortality patterns following spruce budworm infestation in unprotected spruce-fir forests in Maine

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; Lianjun Zhang; Thomas B. Brann; David S. Larrick

2003-01-01

Cumulative and annual mortality of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L) Mill.] were examined over a 10 yr period to follow the mortality patterns in unprotected spruce-fir forests in northern Maine. Different mortality patterns were determined based on stand composition classes and merchantability classes. In general, balsam fir was more...

Geographic distribution of dementia mortality: elevated mortality rates for black and white Americans by place of birth.

PubMed

Glymour, M Maria; Kosheleva, Anna; Wadley, Virginia G; Weiss, Christopher; Manly, Jennifer J

2011-01-01

We hypothesized that patterns of elevated stroke mortality among those born in the United States Stroke Belt (SB) states also prevailed for mortality related to all-cause dementia or Alzheimer Disease. Cause-specific mortality (contributing cause of death, including underlying cause cases) rates in 2000 for United States-born African Americans and whites aged 65 to 89 years were calculated by linking national mortality records with population data based on race, sex, age, and birth state or state of residence in 2000. Birth in a SB state (NC, SC, GA, TN, AR, MS, or AL) was cross-classified against SB residence at the 2000 Census. Compared with those who were not born in the SB, odds of all-cause dementia mortality were significantly elevated by 29% for African Americans and 19% for whites born in the SB. These patterns prevailed among individuals who no longer lived in the SB at death. Patterns were similar for Alzheimer Disease-related mortality. Some non-SB states were also associated with significant elevations in dementia-related mortality. Dementia mortality rates follow geographic patterns similar to stroke mortality, with elevated rates among those born in the SB. This suggests important roles for geographically patterned childhood exposures in establishing cognitive reserve.

Comparison of Glasgow Coma Scale, Full Outline of Unresponsiveness and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation in Prediction of Mortality Rate Among Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury Admitted to Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Ayyasi, Mitra; Akbari, Hooshang; Heidari Gorji, Mohammad Ali

2016-01-01

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a common cause of mortality and disability worldwide. Choosing an appropriate diagnostic tool is critical in early stage for appropriate decision about primary diagnosis, medical care and prognosis. Objectives This study aimed to compare the Glasgow coma scale (GCS), full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) with respect to prediction of the mortality rate of patients with TBI admitted to intensive care unit. Patients and Methods This diagnostic study was conducted on 80 patients with TBI in educational hospitals. The scores of APACHE II, GCS and FOUR were recorded during the first 24 hours of admission of patients. In this study, early mortality means the patient death before 14 days and delayed mortality means the patient death 15 days after admitting to hospital. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive and inductive statistics. Results The results showed that the mean age of the patients was 33.80 ± 12.60. From a total of 80 patients with TBI, 16 (20%) were females and 64 (80%) males. The mortality rate was 15 (18.7%). The results showed no significant difference among three tools. In prediction of early mortality, the areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.92 (CI = 0.95. 0.81 - 0.97), 0.90 (CI = 0.95. 0.74 - 0.94), and 0.96 (CI = 0.95. 0.87 - 0.9) for FOUR, APACHE II and GCS, respectively. In delayed mortality, the AUCs were 0.89 (CI = 0.95. 0.81-0.94), 0.94 (CI = 0.95. 0.74 - 0.97) and 0.90 (CI = 0.95. 0.87 - 0.95) for FOUR, APACHE II and GCS, respectively. Conclusions Considering that GCS is easy to use and the FOUR can diagnose a locking syndrome along same values of subscales. These two subscales are superior to APACHI II in prediction of early mortality. Conversation APACHE II is more punctual in the prediction of delayed mortality. PMID:29696116

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Barnett, Adrian G

2015-01-01

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20-30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mesocyclops longisetus effects on survivorship of Aedes aegypti immature stages in car tyres.

PubMed

Manrique-Saide, P; Ibáñez-Bernal, S; Delfín-González, H; Parra Tabla, V

1998-10-01

The effect of the introduction of the entomophagous copepod Mesocyclops longisetus (Acuacultura F.C.B. strain) on the survival of Aedes aegypti immature stages in car tyres was evaluated under semi-natural conditions in the municipality of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Life tables were constructed for the immature stages of the mosquito in the presence and absence of M. longisetus, and the survival data were compared using log-linear models. The data set was adjusted using the GLIM statistical package and the quality of adjustment was evaluated with a chi-squared test. Survivorship curves were constructed for each treatment. In the absence of M. longisetus, the survivorship of Ae. aegypti immature stages averaged 9%. The highest mortality rate was observed during the fourth larval instar (54%) and the resulting survival pattern corresponded to a type II survivorship curve. The mortality rate of Ae. aegypti first-instar larvae (fifty per tyre) increased more than 200-fold in the presence of M. longisetus (twenty per tyre) and the highest mortality was during the first two larval instars, where it reached 98.9%, with a resulting survivorship of 0.2%. Overall mortality was sixfold greater in the presence of the copepod than in its absence. The survival pattern of immature stages of Ae. aegypti in the presence of the copepod corresponded to a type III survivorship curve. As M. longisetus was so effective against Ae. aegypti immature stages in tyres under seminatural conditions, its long-term effectiveness should be evaluated under socially and ecologically realistic field conditions in Mexico.

Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality among Swiss Adults in a Census-Linked Cohort

PubMed Central

Cabaset, Sophie; Pestoni, Giulia; Rohrmann, Sabine; Faeh, David

2018-01-01

Defining dietary guidelines requires a quantitative assessment of the influence of diet on the development of diseases. The aim of the study was to investigate how dietary patterns were associated with mortality in a general population sample of Switzerland. We included 15,936 participants from two population-based studies (National Research Program 1A (NRP1A) and Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA)—1977 to 1993) who fully answered a simplified 24-h dietary recall. Mortality data were available through anonymous record linkage with the Swiss National Cohort (follow-up of up to 37.9 years). Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to define data-driven qualitative dietary patterns. Mortality hazard ratios were calculated for all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality using Cox regression. Two patterns were characterized by a low dietary variety (“Sausage and Vegetables”, “Meat and Salad”), two by a higher variety (“Traditional”, “High-fiber foods”) and one by a high fish intake (“Fish”). Males with unhealthy lifestyle (smokers, low physical activity and high alcohol intake) were overrepresented in the low-variety patterns and underrepresented in the high-variety and “Fish” patterns. In multivariable-adjusted models, the “Fish” (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% CI (0.68–0.99)) and “High-fiber foods” (0.85 (0.72–1.00)) patterns were associated with lower cancer mortality. In men, the “Fish” (0.73 (0.55–0.97)) and “Traditional” (0.76 (0.59–0.98)) patterns were associated with lower cardiovascular mortality. In summary, our results support the notion that dietary patterns affect mortality and that these patterns strongly cluster with other health determinants. PMID:29518908

The PLATINO study: description of the distribution, stability, and mortality according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease classification from 2007 to 2017.

PubMed

Menezes, Ana M; Wehrmeister, Fernando C; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Viana, Karynna P; Soares, Claudia; Müllerova, Hana; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Jardim, José R; Montes de Oca, Maria

2017-01-01

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) report provides a framework for classifying COPD reflecting the impacts of disease on patients and for targeting treatment recommendations. The GOLD 2017 introduced a new classification with 16 subgroups based on a composite of spirometry and symptoms/exacerbations. Data from the population-based PLATINO study, collected at baseline and at follow-up, in three sites in Latin America were analyzed to compare the following: 1) the distribution of COPD patients according to GOLD 2007, 2013, and 2017; 2) the stability of the 2007 and 2013 classifications; and 3) the mortality rate over time stratified by GOLD 2007, 2013, and 2017. Of the 524 COPD patients evaluated, most of them were classified as Grade I or II (GOLD 2007) and Group A or B (GOLD 2013), with ≈70% of those classified as Group A in GOLD 2013 also classified as Grade I in GOLD 2007 and the highest percentage (41%) in Group D (2013) classified as Grade III (2007). According to GOLD 2017, among patients with Grade I airflow limitation, 69% of them were categorized into Group A, whereas Grade IV patients were more evenly distributed among Groups A-D. Most of the patients classified by GOLD 2007 remained in the same airflow limitation group at the follow-up; a greater temporal variability was observed with GOLD 2013 classification. Incidence-mortality rate in patients classified by GOLD 2007 was positively associated with increasing severity of airflow obstruction; for GOLD 2013 and GOLD 2017 (Groups A-D), highest mortality rates were observed in Groups C and D. No clear pattern was observed for mortality across the GOLD 2017 subgroups. The PLATINO study data suggest that GOLD 2007 classification shows more stability over time compared with GOLD 2013. No clear patterns with respect to the distribution of patients or incidence-mortality rates were observed according to GOLD 2013/2017 classification.

Evolution of aging: individual life history trade-offs and population heterogeneity account for mortality patterns across species.

PubMed

Le Cunff, Y; Baudisch, A; Pakdaman, K

2014-08-01

A broad range of mortality patterns has been documented across species, some even including decreasing mortality over age. Whether there exist a common denominator to explain both similarities and differences in these mortality patterns remains an open question. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that universal intracellular trade-offs between maintenance/lifespan and reproduction would drive aging across species. The disposable soma theory has provided numerous insights concerning aging processes in single individuals. Yet, which specific population mortality patterns it can lead to is still largely unexplored. In this article, we propose a model exploring the mortality patterns which emerge from an evolutionary process including only the disposable soma theory core principles. We adapt a well-known model of genomic evolution to show that mortality curves producing a kink or mid-life plateaus derive from a common minimal evolutionary framework. These mortality shapes qualitatively correspond to those of Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, medflies, yeasts and humans. Species evolved in silico especially differ in their population diversity of maintenance strategies, which itself emerges as an adaptation to the environment over generations. Based on this integrative framework, we also derive predictions and interpretations concerning the effects of diet changes and heat-shock treatments on mortality patterns. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Usefulness of Glycemic Gap to Predict ICU Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Diabetes.

PubMed

Liao, Wen-I; Wang, Jen-Chun; Chang, Wei-Chou; Hsu, Chin-Wang; Chu, Chi-Ming; Tsai, Shih-Hung

2015-09-01

Stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) has been independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in critically ill patients without diabetes. However, it is also necessary to consider preexisting hyperglycemia when investigating the relationship between SIH and mortality in patients with diabetes. We therefore assessed whether the gap between admission glucose and A1C-derived average glucose (ADAG) levels could be a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients with diabetes.We retrospectively reviewed the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores and clinical outcomes of patients with diabetes admitted to our medical intensive care unit (ICU) between 2011 and 2014. The glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were converted to the ADAG by the equation, ADAG = [(28.7 × HbA1c) - 46.7]. We also used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine the optimal cut-off value for the glycemic gap when predicting ICU mortality and used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to measure the improvement in prediction performance gained by adding the glycemic gap to the APACHE-II score.We enrolled 518 patients, of which 87 (17.0%) died during their ICU stay. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher APACHE-II scores and glycemic gaps than survivors (P < 0.001). Critically ill patients with diabetes and a glycemic gap ≥80 mg/dL had significantly higher ICU mortality and adverse outcomes than those with a glycemic gap <80 mg/dL (P < 0.001). Incorporation of the glycemic gap into the APACHE-II score increased the discriminative performance for predicting ICU mortality by increasing the area under the ROC curve from 0.755 to 0.794 (NRI = 13.6%, P = 0.0013).The glycemic gap can be used to assess the severity and prognosis of critically ill patients with diabetes. The addition of the glycemic gap to the APACHE-II score significantly improved its ability to predict ICU mortality.

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Introduction Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. Methods A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). Results There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Conclusions Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration. PMID:19706163

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.

PubMed

Hampshire, Peter A; Welch, Catherine A; McCrossan, Lawrence A; Francis, Katharine; Harrison, David A

2009-01-01

Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration.

Admission Cell Free DNA Levels Predict 28-Day Mortality in Patients with Severe Sepsis in Intensive Care

PubMed Central

Almog, Yaniv; Perl, Yael; Novack, Victor; Galante, Ori; Klein, Moti; Pencina, Michael J.; Douvdevani, Amos

2014-01-01

Aim The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD) level at admission measured by a new simplified method. Materials and Methods CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU) admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome. Results Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles) were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone. Conclusions CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT), suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making. PMID:24955978

Drinking Level, Drinking Pattern, and Twenty-Year Total Mortality Among Late-Life Drinkers.

PubMed

Holahan, Charles J; Schutte, Kathleen K; Brennan, Penny L; Holahan, Carole K; Moos, Rudolf H

2015-07-01

Research on moderate drinking has focused on the average level of drinking. Recently, however, investigators have begun to consider the role of the pattern of drinking, particularly heavy episodic drinking, in mortality. The present study examined the combined roles of average drinking level (moderate vs. high) and drinking pattern (regular vs. heavy episodic) in 20-year total mortality among late-life drinkers. The sample comprised 1,121 adults ages 55-65 years. Alcohol consumption was assessed at baseline, and total mortality was indexed across 20 years. We used multiple logistic regression analyses controlling for a broad set of sociodemographic, behavioral, and health status covariates. Among individuals whose high level of drinking placed them at risk, a heavy episodic drinking pattern did not increase mortality odds compared with a regular drinking pattern. Conversely, among individuals who engage in a moderate level of drinking, prior findings showed that a heavy episodic drinking pattern did increase mortality risk compared with a regular drinking pattern. Correspondingly, a high compared with a moderate drinking level increased mortality risk among individuals maintaining a regular drinking pattern, but not among individuals engaging in a heavy episodic drinking pattern, whose pattern of consumption had already placed them at risk. Findings highlight that low-risk drinking requires that older adults drink low to moderate average levels of alcohol and avoid heavy episodic drinking. Heavy episodic drinking is frequent among late-middle-aged and older adults and needs to be addressed along with average consumption in understanding the health risks of late-life drinkers.

Intensive Care in India: The Indian Intensive Care Case Mix and Practice Patterns Study.

PubMed

Divatia, Jigeeshu V; Amin, Pravin R; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan; Kapadia, Farhad N; Todi, Subhash; Sahu, Samir; Govil, Deepak; Chawla, Rajesh; Kulkarni, Atul P; Samavedam, Srinivas; Jani, Charu K; Rungta, Narendra; Samaddar, Devi Prasad; Mehta, Sujata; Venkataraman, Ramesh; Hegde, Ashit; Bande, B D; Dhanuka, Sanjay; Singh, Virendra; Tewari, Reshma; Zirpe, Kapil; Sathe, Prachee

2016-04-01

To obtain information on organizational aspects, case mix and practices in Indian Intensive Care Units (ICUs). An observational, 4-day point prevalence study was performed between 2010 and 2011 in 4209 patients from 124 ICUs. ICU and patient characteristics, and interventions were recorded for 24 h of the study day, and outcomes till 30 days after the study day. Data were analyzed for 4038 adult patients from 120 ICUs. On the study day, mean age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were 54.1 ± 17.1 years, 17.4 ± 9.2 and 3.8 ± 3.6, respectively. About 46.4% patients had ≥1 organ failure. Nearly, 37% and 22.2% patients received mechanical ventilation (MV) and vasopressors or inotropes, respectively. Nearly, 12.2% patients developed an infection in the ICU. About 28.3% patients had severe sepsis or septic shock (SvSpSS) during their ICU stay. About 60.7% patients without infection received antibiotics. There were 546 deaths and 183 terminal discharges (TDs) from ICU (including left against medical advice or discharged on request), with ICU mortality 729/4038 (18.1%). In 1627 patients admitted within 24 h of the study day, the standardized mortality ratio was 0.67. The APACHE II and SOFA scores, public hospital ICUs, medical ICUs, inadequately equipped ICUs, medical admission, self-paying patient, presence of SvSpSS, acute respiratory failure or cancer, need for a fluid bolus, and MV were independent predictors of mortality. The high proportion of TDs and the association of public hospitals, self-paying patients, and inadequately equipped hospitals with mortality has important implications for critical care in India.

Cirrhosis mortality among former American prisoners of war of World War II and the Korean conflict: results of a 50-year follow-up.

PubMed

Page, W F; Miller, R N

2000-10-01

In our earlier, 30-year follow-up of American prisoners of war (POWs) of World War II and the Korean conflict, we found evidence of increased cirrhosis mortality. Using federal records, we have now extended our follow-up to 50 years (42 years for Korean conflict veterans) and have used proportional hazards analysis to compare the mortality experience of POWs with that of controls. Compared with their controls, World War II POWs had a 32% higher risk of cirrhosis mortality (statistically significant), and mortality risk was higher in the first 30 years of follow-up and also among those aged 51 years and older. Korean POWs had roughly the same risk of cirrhosis mortality as their controls. Neither self-reported data on alcohol consumption nor supplemental morbidity data satisfactorily explained the differences in risk between POWs and controls, although there was evidence that POWs tended to have higher rates of hepatitis, helminthiasis, and nutritional deprivation.

Use of the APACHE II score to assess impact of therapeutic plasma exchange for critically ill patients with hypertriglyceride-induced pancreatitis.

PubMed

Nakhoda, Shazia; Zimrin, Ann B; Baer, Maria R; Law, Jennie Y

2017-04-01

Hypertriglyceridemic (HTG) pancreatitis carries significant morbidity and mortality and often requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) rapidly lowers serum triglyceride (TG) levels. However, evidence supporting TPE for HTG pancreatitis is lacking. Ten patients admitted to the ICU for HTG pancreatitis underwent TPE at our institution from 2005-2015. We retrospectively calculated the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II (APACHE II) score at the time of initial TPE and again after the final TPE session to assess the impact of triglyceride apheresis on morbidity and mortality associated with HTG pancreatitis. All 10 patients had rapid reduction in TG level after TPE, but only 5 had improvement in their APACHE II score. The median APACHE II score decreased from 19% to 17% after TPE, correlating with an 8% and 9% decrease in median predicted non-operative and post-operative mortality, respectively. The APACHE II score did not differ statistically before and after TPE implementation in our patient group (p=0.39). TPE is a clinically useful tool to rapidly lower TG levels, but its impact on mortality of HTG pancreatitis as assessed by the APACHE II score remains uncertain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

PubMed

Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

2000-02-01

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

The Life-Long Mortality Risks Of World War II Experiences

PubMed Central

Elder, Glen H.; Brown, James Scott; Martin, Leslie R.; Friedman, Howard W.

2009-01-01

Objective This longitudinal study of American veterans investigated the mortality risks of five World War II military experiences (i.e., combat exposure) and their variation among veterans in the post-war years. Methods The male subjects (N=854) are members of the Stanford-Terman study, and 38 percent served in World War II. Cox models (proportional hazards regressions) compared the relative mortality risk associated with each military experience. Results Overseas duty, service in the Pacific and exposure to combat significantly increased the mortality risks of veterans in the study. Individual differences in education, mental health in 1950, and age at entry into the military, as well as personality factors made no difference in these results. Conclusions A gradient is observable such that active duty on the home front, followed by overseas duty, service in the Pacific, and combat exposure markedly increased the risk of relatively early mortality. Potential linking mechanisms include heavy drinking. PMID:20161074

Prognostic value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Simplified Acute Physiology II Score compared with trauma scores in the outcome of multiple-trauma patients.

PubMed

Fueglistaler, Philipp; Amsler, Felix; Schüepp, Marcel; Fueglistaler-Montali, Ida; Attenberger, Corinna; Pargger, Hans; Jacob, Augustinus Ludwig; Gross, Thomas

2010-08-01

Prospective data regarding the prognostic value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in comparison with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) and trauma scores on the outcome of multiple-trauma patients are lacking. Single-center evaluation (n = 237, Injury Severity Score [ISS] >16; mean ISS = 29). Uni- and multivariate analysis of SAPS II, SOFA, revised trauma, polytrauma, and trauma and ISS scores (TRISS) was performed. The 30-day mortality was 22.8% (n = 54). SOFA day 1 was significantly higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (P < .001) and correlated well with the length of intensive care unit stay (r = .50, P < .001). Logistic regression revealed SAPS II to have the best predictive value of 30-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic = .86 +/- .03). The SOFA score significantly added prognostic information with regard to mortality to both SAPS II and TRISS. The combination of critically ill and trauma scores may increase the accuracy of mortality prediction in multiple-trauma patients. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic and Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Cancer Mortality, Incidence, and Survival in the United States, 1950–2014: Over Six Decades of Changing Patterns and Widening Inequalities

PubMed Central

Jemal, Ahmedin

2017-01-01

We analyzed socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in US mortality, incidence, and survival rates from all-cancers combined and major cancers from 1950 to 2014. Census-based deprivation indices were linked to national mortality and cancer data for area-based socioeconomic patterns in mortality, incidence, and survival. The National Longitudinal Mortality Study was used to analyze individual-level socioeconomic and racial/ethnic patterns in mortality. Rates, risk-ratios, least squares, log-linear, and Cox regression were used to examine trends and differentials. Socioeconomic patterns in all-cancer, lung, and colorectal cancer mortality changed dramatically over time. Individuals in more deprived areas or lower education and income groups had higher mortality and incidence rates than their more affluent counterparts, with excess risk being particularly marked for lung, colorectal, cervical, stomach, and liver cancer. Education and income inequalities in mortality from all-cancers, lung, prostate, and cervical cancer increased during 1979–2011. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality widened as mortality in lower socioeconomic groups/areas declined more slowly. Mortality was higher among Blacks and lower among Asian/Pacific Islanders and Hispanics than Whites. Cancer patient survival was significantly lower in more deprived neighborhoods and among most ethnic-minority groups. Cancer mortality and incidence disparities may reflect inequalities in smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diet, alcohol use, screening, and treatment. PMID:28408935

High birth weight and perinatal mortality among siblings: A register based study in Norway, 1967-2011.

PubMed

Kristensen, Petter; Keyes, Katherine M; Susser, Ezra; Corbett, Karina; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind; Irgens, Lorentz M

2017-01-01

Perinatal mortality according to birth weight has an inverse J-pattern. Our aim was to estimate the influence of familial factors on this pattern, applying a cohort sibling design. We focused on excess mortality among macrosomic infants (>2 SD above the mean) and hypothesized that the birth weight-mortality association could be explained by confounding shared family factors. We also estimated how the participant's deviation from mean sibling birth weight influenced the association. We included 1 925 929 singletons, born term or post-term to mothers with more than one delivery 1967-2011 registered in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. We examined z-score birth weight and perinatal mortality in random-effects and sibling fixed-effects logistic regression models including measured confounders (e.g. maternal diabetes) as well as unmeasured shared family confounders (through fixed effects models). Birth weight-specific mortality showed an inverse J-pattern, being lowest (2.0 per 1000) at reference weight (z-score +1 to +2) and increasing for higher weights. Mortality in the highest weight category was 15-fold higher than reference. This pattern changed little in multivariable models. Deviance from mean sibling birth weight modified the mortality pattern across the birth weight spectrum: small and medium-sized infants had increased mortality when being smaller than their siblings, and large-sized infants had an increased risk when outweighing their siblings. Maternal diabetes and birth weight acted in a synergistic fashion with mortality among macrosomic infants in diabetic pregnancies in excess of what would be expected for additive effects. The inverse J-pattern between birth weight and mortality is not explained by measured confounders or unmeasured shared family factors. Infants are at particularly high mortality risk when their birth weight deviates substantially from their siblings. Sensitivity analysis suggests that characteristics related to maternal diabetes could be important in explaining the increased mortality among macrosomic infants.

Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method

PubMed Central

Li, Nan; Lee, Ronald

2005-01-01

Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while before tapering off. We forecast greater longevity gains for the US and lesser ones for Japan relative to separate forecasts. PMID:16235614

Progress and inequities in maternal mortality in Afghanistan (RAMOS-II): a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Bartlett, Linda; LeFevre, Amnesty; Zimmerman, Linnea; Saeedzai, Sayed Ataullah; Turkmani, Sabera; Zabih, Weeda; Tappis, Hannah; Becker, Stan; Winch, Peter; Koblinsky, Marge; Rahmanzai, Ahmed Javed

2017-05-01

The risk of maternal death in Afghanistan is among the highest in the world; however, the risks within the country are poorly understood. Subnational maternal mortality estimates are needed along with a broader understanding of determinants to guide future maternal health programmes. Here we aimed to study maternal mortality risk and causes, care-seeking patterns, and costs within the country. We did a household survey (RAMOS-II) in the urban area of Kabul city and the rural area of Ragh, Badakshan. Questionnaires were administered to senior female household members and data were collected by a team of female interviewers with secondary school education. Information was collected about all deaths, livebirths, stillbirths, health-care access and costs, household income, and assets. Births were documented using a pregnancy history. We investigated all deaths in women of reproductive age (12-49 years) since January, 2008, using verbal autopsy. Community members; service providers; and district, provincial, and national officials in each district were interviewed to elicit perceptions of changes in maternal mortality risk and health service provision, along with programme and policy documentation of maternal care coverage. Data were collected between March 2, 2011, and Oct 16, 2011, from 130 688 participants: 63 329 in Kabul and 67 359 in Ragh. The maternal mortality ratio in Ragh was quadruple that in Kabul (713 per 100 000 livebirths, 95% CI 553-873 in Ragh vs 166, 63-270 in Kabul). We recorded similar patterns for all other maternal death indicators, including the maternal mortality rate (1·7 per 1000 women of reproductive age, 95% CI 1·3-2·1 in Ragh vs 0·2, 0·1-0·3 in Kabul). Infant mortality also differed significantly between the two areas (115·5 per 1000 livebirths, 95% CI 108·6-122·3 in Ragh vs 24·8, 20·5-29·0 in Kabul). In Kabul, 5594 (82%) of 6789 women reported a skilled attendant during recent deliveries compared with 381 (3%) of 11 366 women in Ragh. An estimated 85% of women in Kabul and 47% in Ragh incurred delivery costs (mean US$66·20, IQR $61·30 in Kabul and $9·89, $11·87 in Ragh). Maternal complications were the third leading cause of death in women of reproductive age in Kabul, and the leading cause in Ragh, and were mainly due to hypertensive diseases of pregnancy. The maternal mortality rate decreased significantly between 2002 and 2011 in both Kabul (by 71%) and Ragh (by 84%), plus all other maternal mortality indicators in Ragh. Remarkable maternal and other mortality reductions have occurred in Afghanistan, but the disparity between urban and rural sites is alarming, with all maternal mortality indicators significantly higher in Ragh than in Kabul. Customised service delivery is needed to ensure parity for different geographic and security settings. United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II: predicting the mortality of neuro-critical disease.

PubMed

Su, Yingying; Wang, Miao; Liu, Yifei; Ye, Hong; Gao, Daiquan; Chen, Weibi; Zhang, Yunzhou; Zhang, Yan

2014-12-01

This study aimed to conduct and assess a module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (MM-APACHE) II model, based on disease categories modified-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (DCM-APACHE) II model, in predicting mortality more accurately in neuro-intensive care units (N-ICUs). In total, 1686 patients entered into this prospective study. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scores of all patients on admission and worst 24-, 48-, 72-hour scores were obtained. Neurological diagnosis on admission was classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurological infection, spinal neuromuscular (SNM) disease, and other neurological diseases. The APACHE II scores of cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurological infection patients were used for building the MM-APACHE II model. There were 1386 cases for cerebral infarction disease, intracranial hemorrhage disease, and neurological infection disease. The logistic linear regression showed that 72-hour APACHE II score (Wals  =  173.04, P < 0.001) and disease classification (Wals  =  12.51, P  =  0.02) were of importance in forecasting hospital mortality. Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II model, built on the variables of the 72-hour APACHE II score and disease category, had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC  =  0.830)) and calibration (χ2  =  12.518, P  =  0.20), and was better than the Knaus APACHE II model (AU-ROC  =  0.778). The APACHE II severity of disease classification system cannot provide accurate prognosis for all kinds of the diseases. A MM-APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurologic infection patients in N-ICU.

Predictive value of the APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and GCS scoring systems in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska, Iwona; Bernas, Szymon; Łojko, Piotr; Piechota, Anna; Piechota, Mariusz

2016-01-01

Scoring systems in critical care patients are essential for predicting of the patient outcome and evaluating the therapy. In this study, we determined the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scoring systems in the prediction of mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe purulent bacterial meningitis. We retrospectively analysed data from 98 adult patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis who were admitted to the single ICU between March 2006 and September 2015. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis: APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and GCS scores, and the lengths of ICU stay and hospital stay. The independent risk factors of patient death in multivariate analysis were the SAPS II score, the length of ICU stay and the length of hospital stay. In the prediction of mortality according to the area under the curve, the SAPS II score had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE II, GCS and SOFA scores. For the prediction of mortality in a patient with severe purulent bacterial meningitis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy.

Survival and weak chaos

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing per capita mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as ‘infant mortality’. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the same system. First, infant mortality—sensu engineering—without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy. PMID:29892407

Has the economic crisis widened the intraurban socioeconomic inequalities in mortality? The case of Barcelona, Spain.

PubMed

Maynou, Laia; Saez, Marc; Lopez-Casasnovas, Guillem

2016-02-01

There is considerable evidence demonstrating socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, some of which focuses on intraurban inequalities. However, all the studies assume that the spatial variation of inequalities is stable over the time. We challenge this assumption and propose two hypotheses: (i) have spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality at an intraurban level changed over time? and (ii) as a result of the economic crisis, has the gap between such disparities widened? In this paper, our objective is to assess the effect of the economic recession on the spatio-temporal variation of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain). We used a spatio-temporal ecological design to analyse mortality inequalities at small area level in Barcelona. Mortality data and socioeconomic indicators correspond to the years 2005 and 2008-2011. We specified spatio-temporal ecological mixed regressions for both men and women using two indicators, neighbourhood and year. We allowed the coefficients of the socioeconomic variables to differ according to the levels and explicitly took into account spatio-temporal adjustment. For men and women both absolute and, above all, relative risks for mortality have increased since 2009. In relative terms, this means that the risk of dying has increased much more in the most economically deprived neighbourhoods than in the more affluent ones. Although the geographical pattern in relative risks for mortality in neighbourhoods in Barcelona remained very stable between 2005 and 2011, socioeconomic inequalities in mortality at an intraurban level have surged since 2009. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Worldwide patterns of ischemic heart disease mortality from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Severo, Milton; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-01-01

The trends in the IHD mortality rates vary widely across countries, reflecting the heterogeneity in the variation of the exposure to the main risk factors and in the access to different management strategies among settings. We aimed to identify model-based patterns in the time trends in IHD mortality in 50 countries from the five continents, between 1980 and 2010. Mixed models were used to identify time trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) (age group 35+years; world standard population), all including random terms for intercept, slope, quadratic and cubic. Model-based clustering was used to identify the patterns. We identified five main patterns of IHD mortality trends in the last three decades, similar for men and women. Pattern 1 had the highest ASMR and pattern 2 exhibited the most pronounced decrease in ASMR during the entire study period. Pattern 3 was characterized by an initial increase in ASMR, followed by a sharp decline. Countries in pattern 4 had the lowest ASMR throughout the study period. It was further divided into patterns 4a (consistent decrease in ASMR throughout the period of analysis) and 4b (less pronounced declines and highest rates observed mostly between 1996 and 2004). There was no correspondence between the geographic or economical grouping of the analyzed countries and the patterns found in this study. Our study yielded a new framework for the description, interpretation and prediction of IHD mortality trends worldwide. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

2014-01-01

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Clinical profile and surgical management of diabetic foot in Benghazi, Libya.

PubMed

Benkhadoura, Mohamed; Alswehly, Mohamed; Elbarsha, Abdulwahab

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to outline the patterns and management of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) and compare our experience with other published data. All consecutive patients admitted to Al-Jala Hospital with diabetic foot from June, 2008 to May, 2013 were reviewed retrospectively. A total of 542 patients were studied, Wagner's grade III ulcers were the most prevalent (31%), followed by grade II (25%). About 10% of patients underwent major amputations and 24.2% underwent minor amputations. The amputation rate was 34%, and the mortality rate was 2%. Diabetic foot infections cause significant morbidity and mortality among patients with diabetes in Benghazi. There is a need to establish a diabetic foot clinic in Benghazi with a multidisciplinary team to reduce the rates of hospital admission and amputation, as well as hospital stay duration. Copyright © 2015 European Foot and Ankle Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is 'gut feeling' by medical staff better than validated scores in estimation of mortality in a medical intensive care unit? - The prospective FEELING-ON-ICU study.

PubMed

Radtke, Anne; Pfister, Roman; Kuhr, Kathrin; Kochanek, Matthias; Michels, Guido

2017-10-01

The aim of the FEELING-ON-ICU study was to compare mortality estimations of critically ill patients based on 'gut feeling' of medical staff and by Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Medical staff estimated patients' mortality risks via questionnaires. APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated retrospectively from records. Estimations were compared with actual in-hospital mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). 66 critically ill patients (60.6% male, mean age 63±15years (range 30-86)) were evaluated each by a nurse (n=66, male 32.4%) and a physician (n=66, male 67.6%). 15 (22.7%) patients died on the intensive care unit. AUC was largest for estimations by physicians (AUC 0.814 (95% CI 0.705-0.923)), followed by SOFA (AUC 0.749 (95% CI 0.629-0.868)), SAPS II (AUC 0.723 (95% CI 0.597-0.849)), APACHE II (AUC 0.721 (95% CI 0.595-0.847)) and nursing staff (AUC 0.669 (95% CI 0.529-0.810)) (p<0.05 for all results). The concept of physicians' 'gut feeling' was comparable to classical objective scores in mortality estimations of critically ill patients. Concerning practicability physicians' evaluations were advantageous to complex score calculation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality of adult intensive care units in Turkey using the APACHE II and SOFA systems (outcome assessment in Turkish intensive care units).

PubMed

Kaymak, Cetin; Sencan, Irfan; Izdes, Seval; Sari, Aydin; Yagmurdur, Hatice; Karadas, Derya; Oztuna, Derya

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) performance using risk-adjusted ICU mortality rates nationally, assessing patients who died or had been discharged from the ICU. For this purpose, this study analyzed the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) databases, containing detailed clinical and physiological information and mortality of mixed critically ill patients in a medical ICU at secondary and tertiary referral ICUs in Turkey. A total of 690 adult intensive care units in Turkey were included in the study. Among 690 ICUs evaluated, 39.7% were secondary and 60.3% were tertiary ICUs. A total of 4188 patients were enrolled in this study. Intensive care units of ministry, university, and private hospitals were evaluated all over Turkey. During the study period, clinical data that were collected concurrently for each patient contained demographic details and the diagnostic category leading to ICU admission. APACHE II and SOFA scores following ICU admission were calculated and recorded. Patients were followed up for outcome data until death or ICU discharge. The mean age of patients was 68.8 ±19 and 54% of them were male. The mean APACHE II score was 20 ±8.7. The ICUs' mortality rate was 46.3%, and mean predicted mortality was 37.2% for APACHE II. The standardized mortality ratio was 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.31). There was a wide difference in outcome for patients admitted to different ICUs and severity of illness using risk adjustment methods. The high mortality rate in patients could be related to comorbid diseases, high mechanical ventilation rates and older ages.

[Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico. II. Excess mortality and pulque consumption].

PubMed

Narro-Robles, J; Gutiérrez-Avila, J H; López-Cervantes, M; Borges, G; Rosovsky, H

1992-01-01

Over the years high cirrhosis mortality rates have been reported in Mexico City and in the surrounding states (Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla and the State of Mexico); on the contrary, well defined areas, such as the northern states, have shown a considerably lower mortality rate. This situation may indicate that some factors such as the pattern of alcoholic intake and other environmental characteristics could explain this striking difference. To determine the role of alcohol, the availability and consumption of alcohol at regional and state level were compared with cirrhosis mortality rates. A high and statistically significant correlation was found with pulque availability and consumption (r = 72-92%, p less than 0.01) in all periods of time under examination. On the contrary, a statistically significant negative association was observed with beer consumption and a positive, but not significant correlation, with distilled alcoholic beverages. Infectious hepatitis incidence, prevalence of exclusive use of native languages (as an indirect index of ethnic background) and nutritional deficiencies were also studied as possible risk factors. Nutritional deficiencies and the prevalence of exclusive use of náhuatl and otomí languages were positively correlated. These results can be useful to conduct further epidemiological studies still needed to determine the etiologic role of pulque consumption as well as of the other risk factors. Nonetheless, the current data stress the need to implement public health programs to reduce alcohol consumption, especially pulque, and to minimize the impact of these risk factors in high mortality areas.

Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores differ between genders in a sepsis cohort: cause or effect?

PubMed

Jacobson, Sofie; Liedgren, Eva; Johansson, Göran; Ferm, Martin; Winsö, Ola

2012-11-01

Controversy exists regarding the influence of gender on sepsis events and outcome. Epidemiological data from other countries may not always apply to local circumstances. The aim of this study was to identify gender differences in patient characteristics, treatment, and outcome related to the occurrence of sepsis at admission to the ICU. A prospective observational cohort study on patients admitted to the ICU over a 3-year period fulfilling sepsis criteria during the first 24 hours. Demographic data, APACHE II score, SOFA score, TISS 76, aetiology, length of stay (LOS), mortality rate, and aspects of treatment were collected and then analysed with respect to gender differences. There were no gender-related differences in mortality or length of stay. Early organ dysfunction assessed as SOFA score at admission was a stronger risk factor for hospital mortality for women than for men. This discrepancy was mainly associated with the coagulation sub-score. CRP levels differed between genders in relation to hospital mortality. Infection from the abdominopelvic region was more common among women, whereas infection from skin or skin structures were more common in men. In this cohort, gender was not associated with increased mortality during a 2-year follow-up period. SOFA score at ICU admission was a stronger risk factor for hospital mortality for women than for men. The discrepancy was mainly related to the coagulation SOFA sub-score. Together with differences in CRP levels this may suggest differences in inflammatory response patterns between genders.

Empirical relationships among oliguria, creatinine, mortality, and renal replacement therapy in the critically ill.

PubMed

Mandelbaum, Tal; Lee, Joon; Scott, Daniel J; Mark, Roger G; Malhotra, Atul; Howell, Michael D; Talmor, Daniel

2013-03-01

The observation periods and thresholds of serum creatinine and urine output defined in the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria were not empirically derived. By continuously varying creatinine/urine output thresholds as well as the observation period, we sought to investigate the empirical relationships among creatinine, oliguria, in-hospital mortality, and receipt of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Using a high-resolution database (Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II), we extracted data from 17,227 critically ill patients with an in-hospital mortality rate of 10.9 %. The 14,526 patients had urine output measurements. Various combinations of creatinine/urine output thresholds and observation periods were investigated by building multivariate logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality and RRT predictions. For creatinine, both absolute and percentage increases were analyzed. To visualize the dependence of adjusted mortality and RRT rate on creatinine, the urine output, and the observation period, we generated contour plots. Mortality risk was high when absolute creatinine increase was high regardless of the observation period, when percentage creatinine increase was high and the observation period was long, and when oliguria was sustained for a long period of time. Similar contour patterns emerged for RRT. The variability in predictive accuracy was small across different combinations of thresholds and observation periods. The contour plots presented in this article complement the AKIN definition. A multi-center study should confirm the universal validity of the results presented in this article.

Mortality patterns among a Native American population in New York State.

PubMed

Michalek, A M; Mahoney, M C; Cummings, K M; Hanley, J; Snyder, R

1989-10-01

This study investigated patterns of mortality among a Native American tribe, the Seneca Nation of Indians (SNI). The names of 962 tribal members reported to have died in New York State between 1955 and the end of 1984 were identified through a review of tribal roll books maintained by the Seneca Nation. Positive matches were obtained for 796 (83%) of these individuals using New York State mortality files for the period under investigation. Standardized Proportionate Mortality Ratios (PMR) were computed for major causes of death based on cause-specific mortality patterns in the New York State population for each sex during the same time period. Significantly elevated risks of mortality were observed for all infectious diseases, tuberculosis, diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis, and accidents. Depressed mortality ratios were noted for deaths due to all cancers combined, and for cancers of the lung, pancreas, breast, and lymphatic/hematopoietic cancers. Changes in mortality risks over time were also observed.

The Association of Geographic Coordinates with Mortality in People with Lower and Higher Education and with Mortality Inequalities in Spain.

PubMed

Regidor, Enrique; Reques, Laura; Giráldez-García, Carolina; Miqueleiz, Estrella; Santos, Juana M; Martínez, David; de la Fuente, Luis

2015-01-01

Geographic patterns in total mortality and in mortality by cause of death are widely known to exist in many countries. However, the geographic pattern of inequalities in mortality within these countries is unknown. This study shows mathematically and graphically the geographic pattern of mortality inequalities by education in Spain. Data are from a nation-wide prospective study covering all persons living in Spain's 50 provinces in 2001. Individuals were classified in a cohort of subjects with low education and in another cohort of subjects with high education. Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate from all causes and from leading causes of death in each cohort and mortality rate ratios in the low versus high education cohort were estimated by geographic coordinates and province. Latitude but not longitude was related to mortality. In subjects with low education, latitude had a U-shaped relation to mortality. In those with high education, mortality from all causes, and from cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases decreased with increasing latitude, whereas cancer mortality increased. The mortality-rate ratio for all-cause death was 1.27 in the southern latitudes, 1.14 in the intermediate latitudes, and 1.20 in the northern latitudes. The mortality rate ratios for the leading causes of death were also higher in the lower and upper latitudes than in the intermediate latitudes. The geographic pattern of the mortality rate ratios is similar to that of the mortality rate in the low-education cohort: the highest magnitude is observed in the southern provinces, intermediate magnitudes in the provinces of the north and those of the Mediterranean east coast, and the lowest magnitude in the central provinces and those in the south of the Western Pyrenees. Mortality inequalities by education in Spain are higher in the south and north of the country and lower in the large region making up the central plateau. This geographic pattern is similar to that observed in mortality in the low-education cohort.

Why do larval helminths avoid the gut of intermediate hosts?

PubMed

Parker, G A; Ball, M A; Chubb, J C

2009-10-07

In complex life cycles, larval helminths typically migrate from the gut to exploit the tissues of their intermediate hosts. Yet the definitive host's gut is overwhelmingly the most favoured site for adult helminths to release eggs. Vertebrate nematodes with one-host cycles commonly migrate to a site in the host away from the gut before returning to the gut for reproduction; those with complex cycles occupy sites exclusively in the intermediate host's tissues or body spaces, and may or may not show tissue migration before (typically) returning to the gut in the definitive host. We develop models to explain the patterns of exploitation of different host sites, and in particular why larval helminths avoid the intermediate host's gut, and adult helminths favour it. Our models include the survival costs of migration between sites, and maximise fitness (=expected lifetime number of eggs produced by a given helminth propagule) in seeking the optimal strategy (host gut versus host tissue exploitation) under different growth, mortality, transmission and reproductive rates in the gut and tissues (i.e. sites away from the gut). We consider the relative merits of the gut and tissues, and conclude that (i) growth rates are likely to be higher in the tissues, (ii) mortality rates possibly higher in the gut (despite the immunological inertness of the gut lumen), and (iii) that there are very high benefits to egg release in the gut. The models show that these growth and mortality relativities would account for the common life history pattern of avoidance of the intermediate host's gut because the tissues offer a higher growth rate/mortality rate ratio (discounted by the costs of migration), and make a number of testable predictions. Though nematode larvae in paratenic hosts usually migrate to the tissues, unlike larvae in intermediates, they sometimes remain in the gut, which is predicted since in paratenics mortality rate and migration costs alone determine the site to be exploited.

The growth and exploitation rate of yellowstripe scad (selaroides leptolepis cuvier, 1833) in the Malacca Strait, Medan Belawan Subdistrict, North Sumatera Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambun, J.; Bakti, D.; Desrita

2018-02-01

Yellowstripe scad included the one of commodity that has an important economic value in the Malacca Strait. Fish were found mostly in Indonesian of waters made this fish as one of the main target catch. But, it can had negative impact on the population of the fish. The study is done at Belawan Waters on March until May 2017 that which is purposed to study about the frequency distribution of length, determine the parameters of growth and, determine mortality rate and the rate of exploitation in order to provide appropriate management model for the fish resource. Yellowstripe scad was observed around 360 samples with the length range between 110 - 175 mm. The fish separated by bhattacarya method used the aid software FISAT II. A pattern of growth Yellowstripe scad alometrik negative with growth coefisien (K) 1.1 with length asimtotic (L∞) 181.65. The rate of mortality total ( Z) yellowstripe scad 4.34 per year at the rate of mortality natural ( M ) 1.204 per year and rate mortality by fishing (F) 3.136 per year in order to obtain the rate of exploitation 0.722. The value of this exploitation rate has exceeded the value of the optimum exploitation of 0.5.

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. II: Short-term trends during transition and in the 1990s

PubMed Central

Nolte, E.; Shkolnikov, V.; McKee, M.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland.
METHODS—Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were examined using data for 1988/89 and 1990/91 for the former GDR and Poland; examination of life expectancy changes after transition were based on 1992-97 data for Germany and 1991-96 data for Poland.
RESULTS—In both the former GDR and Poland male life expectancy at birth declined by almost one year during transition, mainly attributable to rising death rates from external causes and circulatory diseases. Female life expectancy in Poland deteriorated by 0.3 years, largely attributable to increasing circulatory mortality among the old, while in East German female rising death rates in children and young adults were nearly outbalanced by declining circulatory mortality among those over 70. Between 1991/92 and 1996/97, male life expectancy at birth increased by 2.4 years in the former GDR, 1.2 years in old Federal Republic, and 2.0 years in Poland (women: 2.3, 0.9, and 1.2 years). In East Germany and Poland, the overall improvement was largely attributable to falling mortality among men aged 40-64, while those over 65 contributed the largest proportion to life expectancy gains in women. The change in deaths among men aged 15-39 accounted for 0.4 of a year to life expectancy at birth in East Germany and Poland, attributable largely to greater decreases from external causes. Among those over 40, absolute contributions to changing life expectancy were greater in the former GDR than in the other two entities in both sexes, largely attributable to circulatory diseases. A persisting East-west life expectancy gap in Germany of 2.1 years in men in 1997 was largely attributable to external causes, diseases of the digestive system and circulatory diseases. Higher death rates from circulatory diseases among the elderly largely explain the female life expectancy gap of approximately one year.
CONCLUSIONS—This study provides further insights into the health effects of political transition. Post-transition improvements in life expectancy and mortality have been much steeper in East Germany compared with Poland. Changes in dietary pattern and, in Germany, medical care may have been important factors in shaping post-transition mortality trends. 


Keywords: mortality trends; Germany; Poland; transition PMID:11076985

Simplified Acute Physiology Score II as Predictor of Mortality in Intensive Care Units: A Decision Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Allyn, Jérôme; Ferdynus, Cyril; Bohrer, Michel; Dalban, Cécile; Valance, Dorothée; Allou, Nicolas

2016-01-01

End-of-life decision-making in Intensive care Units (ICUs) is difficult. The main problems encountered are the lack of a reliable prediction score for death and the fact that the opinion of patients is rarely taken into consideration. The Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) is a recent method developed to evaluate the prediction models and which takes into account the wishes of patients (or surrogates) to expose themselves to the risk of obtaining a false result. Our objective was to evaluate the clinical usefulness, with DCA, of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) to predict ICU mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2011 to September 2015, in a medical-surgical 23-bed ICU at University Hospital. Performances of the SAPS II, a modified SAPS II (without AGE), and age to predict ICU mortality, were measured by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and DCA. Among the 4.370 patients admitted, 23.3% died in the ICU. Mean (standard deviation) age was 56.8 (16.7) years, and median (first-third quartile) SAPS II was 48 (34-65). Areas under ROC curves were 0.828 (0.813-0.843) for SAPS II, 0.814 (0.798-0.829) for modified SAPS II and of 0.627 (0.608-0.646) for age. DCA showed a net benefit whatever the probability threshold, especially under 0.5. DCA shows the benefits of the SAPS II to predict ICU mortality, especially when the probability threshold is low. Complementary studies are needed to define the exact role that the SAPS II can play in end-of-life decision-making in ICUs.

Simplified Acute Physiology Score II as Predictor of Mortality in Intensive Care Units: A Decision Curve Analysis

PubMed Central

Allyn, Jérôme; Ferdynus, Cyril; Bohrer, Michel; Dalban, Cécile; Valance, Dorothée; Allou, Nicolas

2016-01-01

Background End-of-life decision-making in Intensive care Units (ICUs) is difficult. The main problems encountered are the lack of a reliable prediction score for death and the fact that the opinion of patients is rarely taken into consideration. The Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) is a recent method developed to evaluate the prediction models and which takes into account the wishes of patients (or surrogates) to expose themselves to the risk of obtaining a false result. Our objective was to evaluate the clinical usefulness, with DCA, of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) to predict ICU mortality. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2011 to September 2015, in a medical-surgical 23-bed ICU at University Hospital. Performances of the SAPS II, a modified SAPS II (without AGE), and age to predict ICU mortality, were measured by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and DCA. Results Among the 4.370 patients admitted, 23.3% died in the ICU. Mean (standard deviation) age was 56.8 (16.7) years, and median (first-third quartile) SAPS II was 48 (34–65). Areas under ROC curves were 0.828 (0.813–0.843) for SAPS II, 0.814 (0.798–0.829) for modified SAPS II and of 0.627 (0.608–0.646) for age. DCA showed a net benefit whatever the probability threshold, especially under 0.5. Conclusion DCA shows the benefits of the SAPS II to predict ICU mortality, especially when the probability threshold is low. Complementary studies are needed to define the exact role that the SAPS II can play in end-of-life decision-making in ICUs. PMID:27741304

Spatial aspects of tree mortality strongly differ between young and old-growth forests.

PubMed

Larson, Andrew J; Lutz, James A; Donato, Daniel C; Freund, James A; Swanson, Mark E; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Sprugel, Douglas G; Franklin, Jerry F

2015-11-01

Rates and spatial patterns of tree mortality are predicted to change during forest structural development. In young forests, mortality should be primarily density dependent due to competition for light, leading to an increasingly spatially uniform pattern of surviving trees. In contrast, mortality in old-growth forests should be primarily caused by contagious and spatially autocorrelated agents (e.g., insects, wind), causing spatial aggregation of surviving trees to increase through time. We tested these predictions by contrasting a three-decade record of tree mortality from replicated mapped permanent plots located in young (< 60-year-old) and old-growth (> 300-year-old) Abies amabilis forests. Trees in young forests died at a rate of 4.42% per year, whereas trees in old-growth forests died at 0.60% per year. Tree mortality in young forests was significantly aggregated, strongly density dependent, and caused live tree patterns to become more uniform through time. Mortality in old-growth forests was spatially aggregated, but was density independent and did not change the spatial pattern of surviving trees. These results extend current theory by demonstrating that density-dependent competitive mortality leading to increasingly uniform tree spacing in young forests ultimately transitions late in succession to a more diverse tree mortality regime that maintains spatial heterogeneity through time.

Dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men.

PubMed

Atkins, Janice L; Whincup, Peter H; Morris, Richard W; Lennon, Lucy T; Papacosta, Olia; Wannamethee, S Goya

2016-10-01

Dietary patterns are a major risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, few studies have examined this relationship in older adults. We examined prospective associations between dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in 3226 older British men, aged 60-79 years and free from CVD at baseline, from the British Regional Heart Study. Baseline FFQ data were used to generate thirty-four food groups. Principal component analysis identified dietary patterns that were categorised into quartiles, with higher quartiles representing higher adherence to the dietary pattern. Cox proportional hazards examined associations between dietary patterns and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. We identified three interpretable dietary patterns: 'high fat/low fibre' (high in red meat, meat products, white bread, fried potato, eggs), 'prudent' (high in poultry, fish, fruits, vegetables, legumes, pasta, rice, wholemeal bread, eggs, olive oil) and 'high sugar' (high in biscuits, puddings, chocolates, sweets, sweet spreads, breakfast cereals). During 11 years of follow-up, 899 deaths, 316 CVD-related deaths, 569 CVD events and 301 CHD events occurred. The 'high-fat/low-fibre' dietary pattern was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality only, after adjustment for confounders (highest v. lowest quartile; hazard ratio 1·44; 95 % CI 1·13, 1·84). Adherence to a 'high-sugar' diet was associated with a borderline significant trend for an increased risk of CVD and CHD events. The 'prudent' diet did not show a significant trend with cardiovascular outcomes or mortality. Avoiding 'high-fat/low-fibre' and 'high-sugar' dietary components may reduce the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in older adults.

Assessment of perioperative mortality risk in patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery: performance of the EuroSCORE I and II logistic models.

PubMed

Madeira, Sérgio; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Tralhão, António; Santos, Miguel; Almeida, Carla; Marques, Marta; Ferreira, Jorge; Raposo, Luís; Neves, José; Mendes, Miguel

2016-02-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) has been established as a tool for assisting decision-making in surgical patients and as a benchmark for quality assessment. Infective endocarditis often requires surgical treatment and is associated with high mortality. This study was undertaken to (i) validate both versions of the EuroSCORE, the older logistic EuroSCORE I and the recently developed EuroSCORE II and to compare their performances; (ii) identify predictors other than those included in the EuroSCORE models that might further improve their performance. We retrospectively studied 128 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent heart surgery for active infective endocarditis between January 2007 and November 2014. Binary logistic regression was used to find independent predictors of mortality and to create a new prediction model. Discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed perioperative mortality was 16.4% (n = 21). The median EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II were 13.9% interquartile range (IQ) (7.0-35.0) and 6.6% IQ (3.5-18.2), respectively. Discriminative power was numerically higher for EuroSCORE II {area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.91]} than for EuroSCORE I [0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85), P = 0.09]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for EuroSCORE II (P = 0.08) but not for EuroSCORE I (P = 0.04). EuroSCORE I tended to over-predict and EuroSCORE II to under-predict mortality. Among the variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity, only prosthetic valve infective endocarditis remained an independent predictor of mortality [odds ratio (OR) 6.6; 95% CI, 1.1-39.5; P = 0.04]. The new model including the EuroSCORE II variables and variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity showed an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.79-0.94) and differed significantly from EuroSCORE I (P = 0.03) but not from EuroSCORE II (P = 0.4). Both EuroSCORE I and II satisfactorily stratify risk in active infective endocarditis; however, EuroSCORE II performed better in the overall comparison. Specific endocarditis features will increase model complexity without an unequivocal improvement in predictive ability. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Injury and Mortality Patterns in Deceased Patients with Road Traffic Injuries: An Autopsy Study.

PubMed

Pfeifer, Roman; Schick, Sylvia; Holzmann, Christopher; Graw, Matthias; Teuben, Michel; Pape, Hans-Christoph

2017-12-01

Despite improvements in prevention and rescue, mortality rates after severe blunt trauma continue to be a problem. The present study analyses mortality patterns in a representative blunt trauma population, specifically the influence of demographic, injury pattern, location and timing of death. Patients that died between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2005 were subjected to a standardised autopsy. death from blunt trauma due to road traffic injuries (Injury Severity Score ≥ 16), patients from a defined geographical area and death on scene or in hospital. suicide, homicide, penetrating trauma and monotrauma including isolated head injury. Statistical analyses included Student's t test (parametric), Mann-Whitney U test (nonparametric) or Chi-square test. A total of 277 consecutive injured patients were included in this study (mean age 46.1 ± 23 years; 67.5% males), 40.5% of which had an ISS of 75. A unimodal distribution of mortality was observed in blunt trauma patients. The most frequently injured body regions with the highest severity were the head (38.6%), chest (26.7%), or both head and chest (11.0%). The cumulative analysis of mortality showed that several factors, such as injury pattern and regional location of collisions, also affected the pattern of mortality. The majority of patients died on scene from severe head and thoracic injuries. A homogenous distribution of death was observed after an initial peak of death on scene. Moreover, several factors such as injury pattern and regional location of collisions may also affect the pattern of mortality.

Methylmercury exposure and mortality in southern Japan: a close look at causes of death.

PubMed Central

Tamashiro, H; Arakaki, M; Futatsuka, M; Lee, E S

1986-01-01

This study examines mortality patterns by cause of death to investigate the effect of exposure to methylmercury in a small area of Minamata City (Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan), which has the highest concentration of patients with Minamata disease. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) are computed by cause of death for the study area, using the age specific rates of the entire city as a standard. The SMRs for liver cancer and chronic liver disease in the study area are significantly higher than unity and are consistent with the mortality patterns of registered Minamata disease patients. While an excess mortality is observed for cerebral haemorrhage, mortality from cerebral infarction and other cerebrovascular diseases is considerably lower in the study area. The multiple risk factors of liver related diseases and a possible explanation for the cerebrovascular mortality patterns are discussed to suggest further investigation. PMID:3746182

Temporal Patterns of Oak Mortality in a Southern Appalachian Forest (1991-2006).

Treesearch

Cathryn Greenberg; Tara L. Keyser; James Speer

2011-01-01

The sustainability of eastern oak-dominated forests is threatened by high oak mortality rates and widespread oak regeneration failure, and presents a challenge to natural area managers. We tracked the rate and cause of mortality of 287 mature oak trees of five species for 15 years to determine the temporal patterns and sources of mortality. We observed a 15.3% total...

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

PubMed

Khwannimit, Bodin

2008-09-01

To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

Echocardiographic parameters of right ventricular function predict mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pilot study

PubMed Central

Wadia, Subeer K.; Kovach, Julie; Fogg, Louis; Tandon, Rajive

2016-01-01

Abstract Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) contributes to increased mortality. Our aim is to identify reproducible transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) parameters of RV dysfunction that can be used to predict outcomes in ARDS. We performed a retrospective single-center cohort pilot study measuring tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), Tei index, RV-fractional area change (RV-FAC), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP), and septal shift, reevaluated by an independent blinded cardiologist (JK). Thirty-eight patients were included. Patients were divided on the basis of 30-day survival. Thirty-day mortality was 47%. Survivors were younger than nonsurvivors. Survivors had a higher pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratio, and TAPSE. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were lower in survivors. TAPSE has the strongest association with increased 30-day mortality from date of TTE. Accordingly, TAPSE has a strong positive correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, and Tei index has a strong negative correlation with PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Septal shift was associated with lower PaO2∶FiO2 ratios. Decrease in TAPSE, increase in Tei index, and septal shift were seen in the severe ARDS group. In multivariate logistic regression models, TAPSE maintained a significant association with mortality independent of age, pH, PaO2∶FiO2 ratios, positive end expiratory pressure, PCO2, serum bicarbonate, plateau pressures, driving pressures, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA scores. In conclusion, TAPSE and other TTE parameters should be used as novel predictive indicators for RV dysfunction in ARDS. These parameters can be used as surrogate noninvasive RV hemodynamic measurements to be manipulated to improve mortality in patients with ARDS and contributory RV dysfunction. PMID:27252840

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores differ between genders in a sepsis cohort: Cause or effect?

PubMed Central

Liedgren, Eva; Johansson, Göran; Ferm, Martin; Winsö, Ola

2012-01-01

Background. Controversy exists regarding the influence of gender on sepsis events and outcome. Epidemiological data from other countries may not always apply to local circumstances. The aim of this study was to identify gender differences in patient characteristics, treatment, and outcome related to the occurrence of sepsis at admission to the ICU. Methods. A prospective observational cohort study on patients admitted to the ICU over a 3-year period fulfilling sepsis criteria during the first 24 hours. Demographic data, APACHE II score, SOFA score, TISS 76, aetiology, length of stay (LOS), mortality rate, and aspects of treatment were collected and then analysed with respect to gender differences. Results. There were no gender-related differences in mortality or length of stay. Early organ dysfunction assessed as SOFA score at admission was a stronger risk factor for hospital mortality for women than for men. This discrepancy was mainly associated with the coagulation sub-score. CRP levels differed between genders in relation to hospital mortality. Infection from the abdominopelvic region was more common among women, whereas infection from skin or skin structures were more common in men. Conclusion. In this cohort, gender was not associated with increased mortality during a 2-year follow-up period. SOFA score at ICU admission was a stronger risk factor for hospital mortality for women than for men. The discrepancy was mainly related to the coagulation SOFA sub-score. Together with differences in CRP levels this may suggest differences in inflammatory response patterns between genders. PMID:22793786

Evaluating cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes patients: an analysis based on competing risks Markov chains and additive regression models.

PubMed

Rosato, Rosalba; Ciccone, G; Bo, S; Pagano, G F; Merletti, F; Gregori, D

2007-06-01

Type 2 diabetes represents a condition significantly associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the study are: (i) to estimate the cumulative incidence function for cause-specific mortality using Cox and Aalen model; (ii) to describe how the prediction of cardiovascular or other causes mortality changes for patients with different pattern of covariates; (iii) to show if different statistical methods may give different results. Cox and Aalen additive regression model through the Markov chain approach, are used to estimate the cause-specific hazard for cardiovascular or other causes mortality in a cohort of 2865 type 2 diabetic patients without insulin treatment. The models are compared in the estimation of the risk of death for patients of different severity. For younger patients with a better covariates profile, the Cumulative Incidence Function estimated by Cox and Aalen model was almost the same; for patients with the worst covariates profile, models gave different results: at the end of follow-up cardiovascular mortality rate estimated by Cox and Aalen model was 0.26 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21-0.31] and 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09-0.18). Standard Cox and Aalen model capture the risk process for patients equally well with average profiles of co-morbidities. The Aalen model, in addition, is shown to be better at identifying cause-specific risk of death for patients with more severe clinical profiles. This result is relevant in the development of analytic tools for research and resource management within diabetes care.

Aging in the natural world: comparative data reveal similar mortality patterns across primates.

PubMed

Bronikowski, Anne M; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Fedigan, Linda M; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara; Morris, William F; Strier, Karen B; Alberts, Susan C

2011-03-11

Human senescence patterns-late onset of mortality increase, slow mortality acceleration, and exceptional longevity-are often described as unique in the animal world. Using an individual-based data set from longitudinal studies of wild populations of seven primate species, we show that contrary to assumptions of human uniqueness, human senescence falls within the primate continuum of aging; the tendency for males to have shorter life spans and higher age-specific mortality than females throughout much of adulthood is a common feature in many, but not all, primates; and the aging profiles of primate species do not reflect phylogenetic position. These findings suggest that mortality patterns in primates are shaped by local selective forces rather than phylogenetic history.

Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010, Dietary Inflammatory Index and risk of mortality: results from the Whitehall II cohort study and meta-analysis of previous Dietary Inflammatory Index and mortality studies.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Hebert, James R; Kivimaki, Mika; Akbaraly, Tasnime

2017-08-01

We aimed to examine the association between the Alternative Healthy Eating Index updated in 2010 (AHEI-2010), the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DIITM) and risk of mortality in the Whitehall II study. We also conducted a meta-analysis on the DII-based results from previous studies to summarise the overall evidence. Data on dietary behaviour assessed by self-administered repeated FFQ and on mortality status were available for 7627 participants from the Whitehall II cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to assess the association between cumulative average of AHEI-2010 and DII scores and mortality risk. During 22 years of follow-up, 1001 participants died (450 from cancer, 264 from CVD). Both AHEI-2010 (mean=48·7 (sd 10·0)) and DII (mean=0·37 (sd 1·41)) were associated with all-cause mortality. The fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per sd, were 0·82; 95 % CI 0·76, 0·88 for AHEI-2010 and 1·18; 95 % CI 1·08, 1·29 for DII. Significant associations were also observed with cardiovascular and cancer mortality risk. For DII, a meta-analysis (using fixed effects) from this and four previous studies showed a positive association of DII score with all-cause (HR=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·05, 28 891deaths), cardiovascular (HR=1·05; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·07, 10 424 deaths) and cancer mortality (HR=1·05; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·07, n 8269).The present study confirms the validity to assess overall diet through AHEI-2010 and DII in the Whitehall II cohort and highlights the importance of considering diet indices related to inflammation when evaluating all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality risk.

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in 16 European cities.

PubMed

Borrell, Carme; Marí-Dell'olmo, Marc; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Burström, B O; Domínguez-Berjón, Felicitas; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Dzúrová, Dagmar; Gandarillas, Ana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kovacs, Katalin; Marinacci, Chiara; Martikainen, Pekka; Pikhart, Hynek; Corman, Diana; Rosicova, Katarina; Saez, Marc; Santana, Paula; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Puigpinós, Rosa; Morrison, Joana; Pasarín, M Isabel; Díez, Èlia

2014-05-01

To explore inequalities in total mortality between small areas of 16 European cities for men and women, as well as to analyse the relationship between these geographical inequalities and their socioeconomic indicators. A cross-sectional ecological design was used to analyse small areas in 16 European cities (26,229,104 inhabitants). Most cities had mortality data for a period between 2000 and 2008 and population size data for the same period. Socioeconomic indicators included an index of socioeconomic deprivation, unemployment, and educational level. We estimated standardised mortality ratios and controlled for their variability using Bayesian models. We estimated relative risk of mortality and excess number of deaths according to socioeconomic indicators. We observed a consistent pattern of inequality in mortality in almost all cities, with mortality increasing in parallel with socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were more pronounced for men than women, and relative inequalities were greater in Eastern and Northern European cities, and lower in some Western (men) and Southern (women) European cities. The pattern of excess number of deaths was slightly different, with greater inequality in some Western and Northern European cities and also in Budapest, and lower among women in Madrid and Barcelona. In this study, we report a consistent pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in 16 European cities. Future studies should further explore specific causes of death, in order to determine whether the general pattern observed is consistent for each cause of death.

Where to Focus Efforts to Reduce the Black-White Disparity In Stroke Mortality: Incidence vs. Case-Fatality?

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Moy, Claudia S.; Howard, Virginia J.; McClure, Leslie A.; Kleindorfer, Dawn O.; Kissela, Brett M.; Judd, Suzanne E.; Unverzagt, Fredrick W.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Safford, Monika M.; Cushman, Mary; Flaherty, Matthew L.; Wadley, Virginia G.

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose At age 45, Blacks have a stroke mortality approximately 3-times greater than their White counterparts, with a declining disparity at older ages. We assess whether this Black-White disparity in stroke mortality is attributable to a Black-White disparity in stroke incidence versus a disparity in case-fatality. Methods We first assess if Black-White differences in stroke mortality within 29,681 participants in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort reflect national Black-White differences in stroke mortality, and then assess the degree to which Black-White differences in stroke incidence or 30-day case-fatality after stroke contribute to the disparities in stroke mortality. Results The pattern of stroke mortality within the study mirrors the national pattern, with the Black-to-White hazard ratio of approximately 4.0 at age 45 decreasing to approximately 1.0 at age 85. The pattern of Black-to-White disparities in stroke incidence shows a similar pattern, but no evidence of a corresponding disparity in stroke case-fatality. Discussion These findings show that the Black-White differences in stroke mortality are largely driven by differences in stroke incidence, with case fatality playing at most a minor role. Therefore to reduce the Black-White disparity in stroke mortality, interventions need to focus on prevention of stroke in Blacks. PMID:27256672

[The demographic potential of Russia].

PubMed

Vishnevskii, A

1998-05-01

This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

[Dynamics and spatial differentiation of premature mortality in the productive age group of the population--premise for in depth studies of causes and conditions of this phenomenon].

PubMed

Andryszek, C; Indulski, J A; Worach-Kardas, H

1996-01-01

The increased mortality in Poland compared to that observed just after the war was mainly caused by the elevated frequency of premature deaths (under 65 years of age). The aim of the work was to assess: the premature mortality in the population of the productive age in Poland in comparison with other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Scandinavian and Western European countries as well as with other developed countries in the world; the dynamics of premature mortality; the spatial differentiation of premature mortality in our country. Two age phases: I = 20 - 44 years, and II = 45 - 64 years were identified in premature mortality. A considerable increase in male premature mortality in phase II of the productive age which began in the second half of the sixties and had continued until 1991 doubled the mortality ratio in Poland when compared with the average ratio observed in all Scandinavian and Western European countries. The analysis of spatial differentiation of premature mortality indicates clearly the relationship between mortality and environmental conditions: the highest ratios are noted in highly urbanized and industrialized voivodships (provinces). It accounts for possible reasons of shortened by 7-8 years period of men's life in Poland as compared to Western countries or even by 10 year in comparison with Japan, for example. The situation among women is more favorable. These alarming data on premature mortality, especially among men in phase II of the productive age emphasize the urgent need for in-depth studies of causes, circumstances and factors contributing to deaths at the most active productive age.

Vegetarian Dietary Patterns and Mortality in Adventist Health Study 2

PubMed Central

Orlich, Michael J.; Singh, Pramil N; Sabaté, Joan; Jaceldo-Siegl, Karen; Fan, Jing; Knutsen, Synnove; Beeson, W. Lawrence; Fraser, Gary E.

2014-01-01

Importance Some evidence suggests vegetarian dietary patterns may be associated with reduced mortality, but the relationship is not well established. Objective To evaluate the association between vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality. Design Prospective cohort study; mortality analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression, controlling for important demographic and lifestyle confounders. Setting Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2), a large North American cohort. Participants A total of 96 469 Seventh-day Adventist men and women recruited between 2002 and 2007, from which an analytic sample of 73 308 participants remained after exclusions. Exposures Diet was assessed at baseline by a quantitative food frequency questionnaire and categorized into 5 dietary patterns: nonvegetarian, semi-vegetarian, pesco-vegetarian, lacto-ovo–vegetarian, and vegan. Main Outcome and Measure The relationship between vegetarian dietary patterns and all-cause and cause-specific mortality; deaths through 2009 were identified from the National Death Index. Results There were 2570 deaths among 73 308 participants during a mean follow-up time of 5.79 years. The mortality rate was 6.05 (95% CI, 5.82–6.29) deaths per 1000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality in all vegetarians combined vs non-vegetarians was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80–0.97). The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality in vegans was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73–1.01); in lacto-ovo–vegetarians, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82–1.00); in pesco-vegetarians, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69–0.94); and in semi-vegetarians, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.75–1.13) compared with nonvegetarians. Significant associations with vegetarian diets were detected for cardiovascular mortality, noncardiovascular noncancer mortality, renal mortality, and endocrine mortality. Associations in men were larger and more often significant than were those in women. Conclusions and Relevance Vegetarian diets are associated with lower all-cause mortality and with some reductions in cause-specific mortality. Results appeared to be more robust in males. These favorable associations should be considered carefully by those offering dietary guidance. PMID:23836264

RSR' pattern and the risk of mortality in men and women free of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

O'Neal, Wesley T; Qureshi, Waqas; Li, Yabing; Soliman, Elsayed Z

2015-01-01

This study included 6,398 participants (mean age 55 ± 0.34 years; 54% female; 49% white; 22% black; 24% Mexican; 4.3% other) free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major ECG abnormalities. Cox regression was used to examine the association between the RSR' (incomplete right bundle branch block (RBBB) or right ventricular conduction delay) pattern and CVD and all-cause mortalities. The RSR' pattern was not associated with an increased risk of CVD (HR=1.10; 95%CI=0.63, 1.91) mortality or all-cause (HR=0.95; 95%CI=0.66, 1.35) mortality. The results were similar when the RSR' pattern was further separated into incomplete RBBB and right ventricular conduction delay. In conclusion, the RSR' pattern is a benign finding in older adults free of clinical CVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis 10

PubMed Central

de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Yamamura, Mellina; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease. PMID:29742272

Analysis of forest naturalness and tree mortality patterns in Estonia

Treesearch

J.A. Stanturf

2009-01-01

New methods for evaluating structural properties of stands and individual tree mortality within forests are needed to enhance biodiversity assessment in forest inventories. One approach is to assess the degree of naturalness in a forest. We assessed forest naturalness by examining patterns and causes of mortality and deadwood amount and...

Impact of baseline tricuspid regurgitation on long-term clinical outcomes and survival after interventional edge-to-edge repair for mitral regurgitation.

PubMed

Schueler, Robert; Öztürk, Can; Sinning, Jan-Malte; Werner, Nikos; Welz, Armin; Hammerstingl, Christoph; Nickenig, Georg

2017-05-01

Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) in patients with mitral valve disease is associated with poor outcome and mortality. Only limited data on the impact of TR on functional outcome and survival in patients undergoing MitraClip procedures are available. 261 patients (mean age 76.6 ± 10, EuroScore 15.9 ± 15.1%) with symptomatic mitral regurgitation (MR) (75.2% functional MR) undergoing MitraClip procedure were included and followed for 721 ± 19.4 days. At baseline 54.7% presented with TR grade 0/I, 29.5% with grade II, 13.4% with grade III and 2.3% with grade IV. When dividing groups according to baseline TR grades, follow-up (FU)-NYHA class was significantly improved only in patients with TR ≤ II (p = 0.05). FU-6-min walking distance increased significantly in the overall cohort (p = 0.05), in patients with TR ≤ II (p = 0.007), but not in patients with TR > II (p = 0.4). Moreover, FU-NT-pro-BNP levels were higher in patients with TR > II (p = 0.05), compared to patients with TR ≤ II. There was a higher mortality according to baseline TR > II and multivariate Cox regression revealed TR > II as the strongest independent predictor for mortality (hazard ratio 2.04). Concomitant TR at baseline negatively influences functional outcome and mortality in patients undergoing MitraClip procedures. Our results underline the need for dedicated interventional strategies for the treatment of TR in patients with symptomatic MR.

Examining geographic patterns of mortality: the atlas of mortality in small areas in Spain (1987-1995).

PubMed

Benach, Joan; Yasui, Yutaka; Borrell, Carme; Rosa, Elisabeth; Pasarín, M Isabel; Benach, Núria; Español, Esther; Martínez, José Miguel; Daponte, Antonio

2003-06-01

Small-area mortality atlases have been demonstrated to be a useful tool for both showing general geographical patterns in mortality data and identifying specific high-risk locations. In Spain no study has so far systematically examined geographic patterns of small-area mortality for the main causes of death. This paper presents the main features, contents and potential uses of the Spanish Atlas of Mortality in small areas (1987-1995). Population data for 2,218 small areas were drawn from the 1991 Census. Aggregated mortality data for 14 specific causes of death for the period 1987-1995 were obtained for each small area. Empirical Bayes-model-based estimates of age-adjusted relative risk were displayed in small-area maps for each cause/gender/age group (0-64 or 65 and over) combination using the same range of values (i.e. septiles) and colour schemes. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' includes multiple choropleth (area-shaded) small-area maps and graphs to answer different questions about the data. The atlas is divided into three main sections. Section 1 includes the methods and comments on the main maps. Section 2 presents a two-page layout for each leading cause of death by gender including 1) a large map with relative risk estimates, 2) a map that indicates high- and low-risk small areas, 3) a graph with median and interquartile range of relative risk estimates for 17 large regions of Spain, and 4) relative-risk maps for two age groups. Section 3 provides specific information on the geographical units of analysis, statistical methods and other supplemental maps. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' is a useful tool for examining geographical patterns of mortality risk and identifying specific high-risk areas. Mortality patterns displayed in the atlas may have important implications for research and social/health policy planning purposes.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field. PMID:22724022

Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

Poisoning severity score, APACHE II and GCS: effective clinical indices for estimating severity and predicting outcome of acute organophosphorus and carbamate poisoning.

PubMed

Sam, Kishore Gnana; Kondabolu, Krishnakanth; Pati, Dipanwita; Kamath, Asha; Pradeep Kumar, G; Rao, Padma G M

2009-07-01

Self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) compounds is a major cause of morbidity and mortality across South Asian countries. To develop uniform and effective management guidelines, the severity of acute OP poisoning should be assessed through scientific methods and a clinical database should be maintained. A prospective descriptive survey was carried out to assess the utility of severity scales in predicting the outcome of 71 organophosphate (OP) and carbamate poisoning patients admitted during a one year period at the Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, predicted mortality rate (PMR) and Poisoning severity score (PSS) were estimated within 24h of admission. Significant correlation (P<0.05) between PSS and GCS and APACHE II and PMR scores were observed with the PSS scores predicting mortality significantly (P< or =0.001). A total of 84.5% patients improved after treatment while 8.5% of the patients were discharged with severe morbidity. The mortality rate was 7.0%. Suicidal poisoning was observed to be the major cause (80.2%), while other reasons attributed were occupational (9.1%), accidental (6.6%), homicidal (1.6%) and unknown (2.5%) reasons. This study highlights the application of clinical indices like GCS, APACHE, PMR and severity scores in predicting mortality and may be considered for planning standard treatment guidelines.

Immersion vaccination of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) with two pathogenic strains of Vibrio anguillarum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, R.W.; Antipa, R.; Amend, D.F.

1979-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were immersion-vaccinated in suspensions containing 5 × 107, 5 × 106, 5 × 105, or 5 × 104 bacteria/mL of bivalent or monovalent, formalin-killedVibrio anguillarum, Types I and II. The fish were split into two lots and held for 54 d. At that time one lot was challenged with living, virulent V. anguillarum, Type I, and one with living, virulent V.anguillarum, Type II. Immunization with bivalent bacterin effectively protected the fish from vibriosis, but monovalent vaccine was effective only against the homologous challenge. Immunization with the highest concentration of Type I monovalent bacterin resulted in 0% Type I and 58% Type II challenge mortality. Immunization with the highest concentration of Type II monovalent bacterin resulted in 41% Type I and 0% Type II challenge mortality. Immunization with the highest concentration of bivalent Type I/Type II bacterin resulted in 2% mortality in both challenges. Protective bacterins were effective at concentrations down to 5 × 105 bacteria/mL.Key words: immersion vaccination, bivalent vaccines, Vibrio anguillarum, vibriosis.

Immersion vaccination of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) with two pathogenic strains of Vibrio anguillarum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, R.W.; Antipa, R.; Amend, D.F.

1979-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were immersion-vaccinated in suspensions containing 5 × 107, 5 × 106, 5 × 105, or 5 × 104 bacteria/mL of bivalent or monovalent, formalin-killed Vibrio anguillarum, Types I and II. The fish were split into two lots and held for 54 d. At that time one lot was challenged with living, virulent V. anguillarum, Type I, and one with living, virulent V. anguillarum, Type II. Immunization with bivalent bacterin effectively protected the fish from vibriosis, but monovalent vaccine was effective only against the homologous challenge. Immunization with the highest concentration of Type I monovalent bacterin resulted in 0% Type I and 58% Type II challenge mortality. Immunization with the highest concentration of Type II monovalent bacterin resulted in 41% Type I and 0% Type II challenge mortality. Immunization with the highest concentration of bivalent Type I/Type II bacterin resulted in 2% mortality in both challenges. Protective bacterins were effective at concentrations down to 5 × 105 bacteria/mL. Key words: immersion vaccination, bivalent vaccines, Vibrio anguillarum, vibriosis.

Comparison of mortality prediction models in burns ICU patients in Pinderfields Hospital over 3 years.

PubMed

Douglas, Helen E; Ratcliffe, Andrew; Sandhu, Rajdeep; Anwar, Umair

2015-02-01

Many different burns mortality prediction models exist; however most agree that important factors that can be weighted include the age of the patient, the total percentage of body surface area burned and the presence or absence of smoke inhalation. A retrospective review of all burns primarily admitted to Pinderfields Burns ICU under joint care of burns surgeons and intensivists for the past 3 years was completed. Predicted mortality was calculated using the revised Baux score (2010), the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury score (2009) and the Boston group score by Ryan et al. (1998). Additionally 28 of the 48 patients had APACHE II scores recorded on admission and the predicted and actual mortality of this group were compared. The Belgian score had the highest sensitivity and negative predictive value (72%/85%); followed by the Boston score (66%/78%) and then the revised Baux score (53%/70%). APACHE II scores had higher sensitivity (81%) and NPV (92%) than any of the burns scores. In our group of burns ICU patients the Belgian model was the most sensitive and specific predictor of mortality. In our subgroup of patients with APACHE II data, this score more accurately predicted survival and mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiac Amyloid Load: A Prognostic and Predictive Biomarker in Patients With Light-Chain Amyloidosis.

PubMed

Kristen, Arnt V; Brokbals, Eva; Aus dem Siepen, Fabian; Bauer, Ralf; Hein, Selina; Aurich, Matthias; Riffel, Johannes; Behrens, Hans-Michael; Krüger, Sandra; Schirmacher, Peter; Katus, Hugo A; Röcken, Christoph

2016-07-05

Cardiac amyloid load has not been analyzed for its effect on mortality in patients with amyloid light-chain (AL) cardiac amyloidosis. This study retrospectively compared histological amyloid load with common clinical predictors of mortality. This study assessed 216 patients with histologically confirmed cardiac amyloidosis at a single center with electrocardiography, echocardiography, and laboratory testing. AL amyloid deposits were usually distributed in a reticular/pericellular pattern, whereas transthyretin amyloid (ATTR) more commonly showed patchy deposits. Median amyloid load was 30.5%; no amyloid load was above 70%. During follow-up (median 19.1 months), 112 patients died. Chemotherapy had a significant effect on overall survival in AL amyloidosis (16.2 months vs. 1.4 months; p = 0.003). Patients with <20% AL amyloid load who responded to chemotherapy showed significantly better survival than nonresponders. According to univariate analysis, predictors of survival in AL amyloidosis included sex, Karnofsky index, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, diastolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, low voltage, ineligibility for chemotherapy, response to chemotherapy, and amyloid load. Independent predictors of mortality by multivariate analysis included NYHA functional class (III vs. II), estimated glomerular filtration rate, responders to chemotherapy, and amyloid load. In ATTR amyloidosis, survival correlated with NYHA functional class, diastolic blood pressure, and use of diuretic agents. Following Cox regression analysis, NYHA functional class (III vs. II; p < 0.05) remained the only independent predictor of patient survival in ATTR amyloidosis. Early identification of subjects with AL amyloid is essential given that in late-stage disease with extensive amyloid load, our data suggested that outcomes are not affected by administration of chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Counties eliminating racial disparities in colorectal cancer mortality.

PubMed

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Yu, Zhongyuan; Caplan, Lee; Jain, Sanjay; Ayer, Turgay; McRoy, Luceta; Levine, Robert S

2016-06-01

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality rates are declining, racial-ethnic disparities in CRC mortality nationally are widening. Herein, the authors attempted to identify county-level variations in this pattern, and to characterize counties with improving disparity trends. The authors examined 20-year trends in US county-level black-white disparities in CRC age-adjusted mortality rates during the study period between 1989 and 2010. Using a mixed linear model, counties were grouped into mutually exclusive patterns of black-white racial disparity trends in age-adjusted CRC mortality across 20 three-year rolling average data points. County-level characteristics from census data and from the Area Health Resources File were normalized and entered into a principal component analysis. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to test the relation between these factors (clusters of related contextual variables) and the disparity trend pattern group for each county. Counties were grouped into 4 disparity trend pattern groups: 1) persistent disparity (parallel black and white trend lines); 2) diverging (widening disparity); 3) sustained equality; and 4) converging (moving from disparate outcomes toward equality). The initial principal component analysis clustered the 82 independent variables into a smaller number of components, 6 of which explained 47% of the county-level variation in disparity trend patterns. County-level variation in social determinants, health care workforce, and health systems all were found to contribute to variations in cancer mortality disparity trend patterns from 1990 through 2010. Counties sustaining equality over time or moving from disparities to equality in cancer mortality suggest that disparities are not inevitable, and provide hope that more communities can achieve optimal and equitable cancer outcomes for all. Cancer 2016;122:1735-48. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

All-cause, drug-related, and HIV-related mortality risk by trajectories of jail incarceration and homelessness among adults in New York City.

PubMed

Lim, Sungwoo; Harris, Tiffany G; Nash, Denis; Lennon, Mary Clare; Thorpe, Lorna E

2015-02-15

We studied a cohort of 15,620 adults who had experienced at least 1 jail incarceration and 1 homeless shelter stay in 2001-2003 in New York City to identify trajectories of these events and tested whether a particular trajectory was associated with all-cause, drug-related, or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related mortality risk in 2004-2005. Using matched data on jail time, homeless shelter stays, and vital statistics, we performed sequence analysis and assessed mortality risk using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and marginal structural modeling. We identified 6 trajectories. Sixty percent of the cohort members had a temporary pattern, which was characterized by sporadic experiences of brief incarceration and homelessness, whereas the rest had the other 5 patterns, which reflected experiences of increasing, decreasing, or persistent jail or shelter stays. Mortality risk among individuals with a temporary pattern was significantly higher than those of adults who had not been incarcerated or stayed in a homeless shelter during the study period (all-cause SMR: 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.59; drug-related SMR: 4.60, 95% CI: 3.17, 6.46; HIV-related SMR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.21); all-cause and HIV-related SMRs in other patterns were not statistically significantly different. When we compared all 6 trajectories, the temporary pattern was more strongly associated with higher mortality risk than was the continuously homelessness pattern. Institutional interventions to reduce recurrent cycles of incarceration and homelessness are needed to augment behavioral interventions to reduce mortality risk. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Death by Segregation: Does the Dimension of Racial Segregation Matter?

PubMed

Yang, Tse-Chuan; Matthews, Stephen A

2015-01-01

The county-level geographic mortality differentials have persisted in the past four decades in the United States (US). Though several socioeconomic factors (e.g., inequality) partially explain this phenomenon, the role of race/ethnic segregation, in general, and the different dimensions of segregation, more specifically, has been underexplored. Focusing on all-cause age-sex standardized US county-level mortality (2004-2008), this study has two substantive goals: (1) to understand whether segregation is a determinant of mortality and if yes, how the relationship between segregation and mortality varies by racial/ethnic dyads (e.g., white/black), and (2) to explore whether different dimensions of segregation (i.e., evenness, exposure, concentration, centralization, and clustering) are associated with mortality. A third goal is methodological: to assess whether spatial autocorrelation influences our understanding of the associations between the dimensions of segregation and mortality. Race/ethnic segregation was found to contribute to the geographic mortality disparities. Moreover, the relationship with mortality differed by both race/ethnic group and the dimension of segregation. Specifically, white/black segregation is positively related to mortality, whereas the segregation between whites and non-black minorities is negatively associated with mortality. Among the five dimensions of segregation, evenness and exposure are more strongly related to mortality than other dimensions. Spatial filtering approaches also identified six unique spatial patterns that significantly affect the spatial distribution of mortality. These patterns offer possible insights that help identify omitted variables related to the persistent patterning of mortality in the US.

Case mix, outcome and activity for obstetric admissions to adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

PubMed Central

2005-01-01

Introduction Risk prediction scores usually overestimate mortality in obstetric populations because mortality rates in this group are considerably lower than in others. Studies examining this effect were generally small and did not distinguish between obstetric and nonobstetric pathologies. We evaluated the performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model in obstetric admissions to critical care units contributing to the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. Methods All obstetric admissions were extracted from the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database of 219,468 admissions to UK critical care units from 1995 to 2003 inclusive. Cases were divided into direct obstetric pathologies and indirect or coincidental pathologies, and compared with a control cohort of all women aged 16–50 years not included in the obstetric categories. The predictive ability of APACHE II was evaluated in the three groups. A prognostic model was developed for direct obstetric admissions to predict the risk for hospital mortality. A log-linear model was developed to predict the length of stay in the critical care unit. Results A total of 1452 direct obstetric admissions were identified, the most common pathologies being haemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. There were 278 admissions identified as indirect or coincidental and 22,938 in the nonpregnant control cohort. Hospital mortality rates were 2.2%, 6.0% and 19.6% for the direct obstetric group, the indirect or coincidental group, and the control cohort, respectively. Cox regression calibration analysis showed a reasonable fit of the APACHE II model for the nonpregnant control cohort (slope = 1.1, intercept = -0.1). However, the APACHE II model vastly overestimated mortality for obstetric admissions (mortality ratio = 0.25). Risk prediction modelling demonstrated that the Glasgow Coma Scale score was the best discriminator between survival and death in obstetric admissions. Conclusion This study confirms that APACHE II overestimates mortality in obstetric admissions to critical care units. This may be because of the physiological changes in pregnancy or the unique scoring profile of obstetric pathologies such as HELLP syndrome. It may be possible to recalibrate the APACHE II score for obstetric admissions or to devise an alternative score specifically for obstetric admissions.

Patterns of mortality in an old-growth mixed-conifer forest of the Southern Sierra Nevada, California

Treesearch

Thomas F. Smith; David M. Rizzo; Malcolm North

2005-01-01

Mortality patterns in an old-growth, mixed-conifer forest, in the absence of wildfire, were investigated at the Teakettle Experimental Forest from 2000 to 2002. We tested the hypothesis that after a century of fire suppression, pathogen- and insect-associated mortality (between episodic droughts) would be significantly greater on ingrowth trees (i.e., smaller-diameter...

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of pre-existing immunity in older populations

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo

2010-01-01

Background While the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the US, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in two Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca. Methods We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915–1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data. Results We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, fall 1918, and winter 1920, characterized by unusual excess mortality in 25–44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City, but did not have a substantial 3rd wave. All age groups including those over 65 years experienced excess mortality during 1918–20. Reproduction number estimates were below 2.5 assuming a 3-day generation interval. Conclusion Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the US and Europe. In contrast to the US and Europe, there was no mortality sparing in Mexican seniors, highlighting potential geographical differences in pre-existing immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns. PMID:20594109

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-04-10

Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. We searched PubMed for the mesh terms "perforated peptic ulcer", "scoring systems", "risk factors", "outcome prediction", "mortality", "morbidity" and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use.

Mortality pattern and life expectancy of Seventh-Day Adventists in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Berkel, J; de Waard, F

1983-12-01

The mortality pattern of Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs) in the Netherlands was assessed during a ten-year study period, 1968-1977. Of 522 deceased SDAs the causes of death of 482 could be ascertained. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) for total mortality (SMR = 0,45), cancer (SMR = 0,50) and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 0,41) as well as for various subgroups differed significantly from the total Dutch population. Mean age at death as well as life-expectation at baptism were significantly higher in SDAs, both in males and females, as compared with Dutch males and females. A health survey among a sample of the total SDA population and a group of 'friend' controls' was done in order to try to explain the differences in mortality pattern and life expectancy. It is concluded that evidence was found for the thesis that abstinence from cigarette smoking is the main factor explaining the low mortality from ischaemic heart diseases among SDAs, while presumably an appropriate (prudent) diet confers additional benefit for example on colon cancer mortality.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin I for the prognostic utility in elderly patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in intensive care unit: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Cheng, Hui; Fan, Wei-Ze; Wang, Sheng-Chi; Liu, Zhao-Hui; Zang, Hui-Ling; Wang, Li-Zhong; Liu, Hong-Juan; Shen, Xiao-Hui; Liang, Shao-Qing

2015-06-01

Using biomarkers to predict mortality in patient with severe sepsis or septic shock is of importance, as these patients frequently have high mortality and unsatisfied outcome. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) play extremely important roles in prognostic value in the mortality of severe sepsis and septic shock. The present study was retrospectively designed to evaluate the predicting mortality of NT-proBNP and cTnI in elderly patients with severe sepsis or septic shock administered in the intensive care unit (ICU) and also to evaluate whether the predicting ability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score or C-reactive protein (CRP) was increased in combination with the biomarkers. A cohort of 430 patients (aged ≥65 years) with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to our ICU between October 2011 and December 2013 was included in the study. Patient data including clinical, laboratory, and survival and mortality were collected. All patients were examined with NT-proBNP, cTnI, CRP, and APACHE-II score and were categorized as the survived and deceased groups according to the outcome 30 days after ICU treatment. The levels of NT-proBNP and cTnI (P < .01) or CRP (P < .05) were significantly higher in the deceased group than those in the survived group. The predicting mortality of APACHE-II score alone was low but largely improved, when it was combined with both NT-proBNP and cTnI (P < .05). The alteration of NT-proBNP and cTnI levels strongly predicated the ICU prognosis in elderly patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cTnI were superior to CRP in predicting mortality. The predicting ability of APACHE-II score was improved only when combined with NT-proBNP and cTnI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypothermia predicts mortality in critically ill elderly patients with sepsis.

PubMed

Tiruvoipati, Ravindranath; Ong, Kevin; Gangopadhyay, Himangsu; Arora, Subhash; Carney, Ian; Botha, John

2010-09-27

Advanced age is one of the factors that increase mortality in intensive care. Sepsis and multi-organ failure are likely to further increase mortality in elderly patients.We compared the characteristics and outcomes of septic elderly patients (> 65 years) with younger patients (≤ 65 years) and identified factors during the first 24 hours of presentation that could predict mortality in elderly patients. This study was conducted in a Level III intensive care unit with a case mix of medical and surgical patients excluding cardiac and neurosurgical patients.We performed a retrospective review of all septic patients admitted to our ICU between July 2004 and May 2007. In addition to demographics and co-morbidities, physiological and laboratory variables were analysed to identify early predictors of mortality in elderly patients with sepsis. Of 175 patients admitted with sepsis, 108 were older than 65 years. Elderly patients differed from younger patients with regard to sex, temperature (37.2°C VS 37.8°C p < 0.01), heart rate, systolic blood pressure, pH, HCO3, potassium, urea, creatinine, APACHE III and SAPS II. The ICU and hospital mortality was significantly higher in elderly patients (10.6% Vs 23.14% (p = 0.04) and 19.4 Vs 35.1 (p = 0.02) respectively). Elderly patients who died in hospital had a significant difference in pH, HCO3, mean blood pressure, potassium, albumin, organs failed, lactate, APACHE III and SAPS II compared to the elderly patients who survived while the mean age and co-morbidities were comparable. Logistic regression analysis identified temperature (OR [per degree centigrade decrease] 0.51; 95% CI 0.306- 0.854; p = 0.010) and SAPS II (OR [per point increase]: 1.12; 95% CI 1.016-1.235; p = 0.02) during the first 24 hours of admission to independently predict increased hospital mortality in elderly patients. The mortality in elderly patients with sepsis is higher than the younger patients. Temperature (hypothermia) and SAPS II scores during the first 24 hours of presentation independently predict hospital mortality.

Regional inequalities in premature mortality in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Laroze, Denise; Neumayer, Eric

2018-01-01

Premature mortality exhibits strong spatial patterns in Great Britain. Local authorities that are located further North and West, that are more distant from its political centre London and that are more urban tend to have a higher premature mortality rate. Premature mortality also tends to cluster among geographically contiguous and proximate local authorities. We develop a novel analytical research design that relies on spatial pattern recognition to demonstrate that an empirical model that contains only socio-economic variables can eliminate these spatial patterns almost entirely. We demonstrate that socioeconomic factors across local authority districts explain 81 percent of variation in female and 86 percent of variation in male premature mortality in 2012–14. As our findings suggest, policy-makers cannot hope that health policies alone suffice to significantly reduce inequalities in health. Rather, it requires strong efforts to reduce the inequalities in socio-economic factors, or living conditions for short, in order to overcome the spatial disparities in health, of which premature mortality is a clear indication. PMID:29489918

Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

PubMed Central

Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

2009-01-01

Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Borden, Kevin A; Cutter, Susan L

2008-01-01

Background Studies on natural hazard mortality are most often hazard-specific (e.g. floods, earthquakes, heat), event specific (e.g. Hurricane Katrina), or lack adequate temporal or geographic coverage. This makes it difficult to assess mortality from natural hazards in any systematic way. This paper examines the spatial patterns of natural hazard mortality at the county-level for the U.S. from 1970–2004 using a combination of geographical and epidemiological methods. Results Chronic everyday hazards such as severe weather (summer and winter) and heat account for the majority of natural hazard fatalities. The regions most prone to deaths from natural hazards are the South and intermountain west, but sub-regional county-level mortality patterns show more variability. There is a distinct urban/rural component to the county patterns as well as a coastal trend. Significant clusters of high mortality are in the lower Mississippi Valley, upper Great Plains, and Mountain West, with additional areas in west Texas, and the panhandle of Florida, Significant clusters of low mortality are in the Midwest and urbanized Northeast. Conclusion There is no consistent source of hazard mortality data, yet improvements in existing databases can produce quality data that can be incorporated into spatial epidemiological studies as demonstrated in this paper. It is important to view natural hazard mortality through a geographic lens so as to better inform the public living in such hazard prone areas, but more importantly to inform local emergency practitioners who must plan for and respond to disasters in their community. PMID:19091058

Patterns of mortality in a montane mixed-conifer forest in San Diego County, California.

PubMed

Freeman, Mary Pyott; Stow, Douglas A; An, Li

2017-10-01

We examine spatial patterns of conifer tree mortality and their changes over time for the montane mixed-conifer forests of San Diego County. These forest areas have recently experienced extensive tree mortality due to multiple factors. A spatial contextual image processing approach was utilized with high spatial resolution digital airborne imagery to map dead trees for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2005 for three study areas: Palomar, Volcan, and Laguna mountains. Plot-based fieldwork was conducted to further assess mortality patterns. Mean mortality remained static from 1997 to 2002 (4, 2.2, and 4.2 trees/ha for Palomar, Volcan, and Laguna) and then increased by 2005 to 10.3, 9.7, and 5.2 trees/ha, respectively. The increase in mortality between 2002 and 2005 represents the temporal pattern of a discrete disturbance event, attributable to the 2002-2003 drought. Dead trees are significantly clustered for all dates, based on spatial cluster analysis, indicating that they form distinct groups, as opposed to spatially random single dead trees. Other tests indicate no directional shift or spread of mortality over time, but rather an increase in density. While general temporal and spatial mortality processes are uniform across all study areas, the plot-based species and quantity distribution of mortality, and diameter distributions of dead vs. living trees, vary by study area. The results of this study improve our understanding of stand- to landscape-level forest structure and dynamics, particularly by examining them from the multiple perspectives of field and remotely sensed data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis: associations between morbidity, mortality and costs†

PubMed Central

Grubitzsch, Herko; Christ, Torsten; Melzer, Christoph; Kastrup, Marc; Treskatsch, Sascha; Konertz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES Surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality as well as with increased resource utilization and costs. For risk and cost reduction, an understanding of contributing factors and interrelations is essential. METHODS Out of 1080 heart valve procedures performed between January 2010 and December 2012, 41 patients underwent surgery for PVE. Complete economic data were available for 30 of them (study cohort). The patients' mean age was 64 ± 12 years (range 37–79 years), and 73% were men. The clinical course was reviewed and morbidity, mortality and costs as well as associations between them were analysed. The cost matrix for each individual patient was obtained from the Institute for the Hospital Remuneration System (InEK GmbH, Germany). The median follow-up was 2.6 years [interquartile range (IQR) 3.7 years; 100% complete]. RESULTS Preoperative status was critical (EuroSCORE II >20%) in 43% of patients. Staphylococci were the most common infecting micro-organisms (27%). The operative mortality rate (≤30 days) was 17%. At 1 year, the overall survival rate was 71 ± 9%. At least one disease- or surgery-related complication affected 21 patients (early morbidity 70%), >1 complication affected 12 patients (40%). There was neither a recurrence of endocarditis, nor was a reoperation required. The mean total hospital costs were 42.6 ± 37.4 Thousand Euro (T€), median 25.7 T€, IQR 28.4 T€ and >100 T€ in 10% of cases. Intensive care unit/intermediate care (ICU/IMC) and operation accounted for 40.4 ± 18.6 and 25.7 ± 12.1% of costs, respectively. There was a significant correlation (Pearson's sample correlation coefficient) between total costs and duration of hospital stay (r = 0.83, P < 0.001) and between ICU/IMC costs and duration of ICU/IMC stay (r = 0.97, P < 0.001). The median daily hospital costs were 1.8 T€/day, but >2.4 T€/day in 25% of patients (upper quartile). The following pattern of associations was identified (P < 0.05). Early mortality was related to preoperative morbidity and postoperative renal failure. Early morbidity was associated with preoperative morbidity and urgency. Total costs were mainly explained by preoperative morbidity, postoperative morbidity and urgency. High EuroSCORE II, complex surgery, need for mechanical circulatory support as well as postoperative mortality and morbidity increased daily costs. CONCLUSIONS The timely diagnosis and treatment of these patients must be a priority, as preoperative morbidity is the major contributor towards mortality, morbidity and costs after surgery for PVE. PMID:26965513

Extensive variation at MHC DRB in the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) provides evidence for balancing selection

PubMed Central

Osborne, A J; Zavodna, M; Chilvers, B L; Robertson, B C; Negro, S S; Kennedy, M A; Gemmell, N J

2013-01-01

Marine mammals are often reported to possess reduced variation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We evaluated diversity at two MHC class II B genes, DQB and DRB, in the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri, NZSL) a species that has suffered high mortality owing to bacterial epizootics, using Sanger sequencing and haplotype reconstruction, together with next-generation sequencing. Despite this species' prolonged history of small population size and highly restricted distribution, we demonstrate extensive diversity at MHC DRB with 26 alleles, whereas MHC DQB is dimorphic. We identify four DRB codons, predicted to be involved in antigen binding, that are evolving under adaptive evolution. Our data suggest diversity at DRB may be maintained by balancing selection, consistent with the role of this locus as an antigen-binding region and the species' recent history of mass mortality during a series of bacterial epizootics. Phylogenetic analyses of DQB and DRB sequences from pinnipeds and other carnivores revealed significant allelic diversity, but little phylogenetic depth or structure among pinniped alleles; thus, we could neither confirm nor refute the possibility of trans-species polymorphism in this group. The phylogenetic pattern observed however, suggests some significant evolutionary constraint on these loci in the recent past, with the pattern consistent with that expected following an epizootic event. These data may help further elucidate some of the genetic factors underlying the unusually high susceptibility to bacterial infection of the threatened NZSL, and help us to better understand the extent and pattern of MHC diversity in pinnipeds. PMID:23572124

Examining Alcohol's Contribution to the US African-American/White Cirrhosis Mortality Differential from 1950 to 2002

PubMed Central

Kerr, William C.; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J.; Ye, Yu

2013-01-01

Aims: The aim of this study was to estimate the overall impact of alcohol on US race- and sex-specific age-adjusted cirrhosis mortality rates and to consider beverage-specific effects that represent changes in drinking patterns over time, comparing states with large and small African-American/White cirrhosis mortality differentials. Methods: Using series data from 1950 to 2002, the effects of per capita alcohol consumption on cirrhosis mortality for African American and White men and women were estimated using generalized least squares panel models on first-differenced data. Granger causality tests explored geographic patterning of racial differences in cirrhosis mortality. Results: Cirrhosis mortality was significantly positively related to apparent consumption of alcohol, with an overall impact of 8–14%/l of ethanol. This effect was driven by spirits which were more strongly associated with mortality for African-American women and for African-American men in states with larger mortality differentials. This disparity first emerged in New York and spread through the Northeast and into Midwestern states. Conclusion: Differences in the contribution of alcohol to cirrhosis mortality rates suggest variation by race and gender in life-course patterns of heavy consumption, illicit liquor and spirits use, as well as birth cohort effects. PMID:23558110

Plant hydraulics improves and topography mediates prediction of aspen mortality in southwestern USA.

PubMed

Tai, Xiaonan; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; Sperry, John S; Brooks, Paul D

2017-01-01

Elevated forest mortality has been attributed to climate change-induced droughts, but prediction of spatial mortality patterns remains challenging. We evaluated whether introducing plant hydraulics and topographic convergence-induced soil moisture variation to land surface models (LSM) can help explain spatial patterns of mortality. A scheme predicting plant hydraulic safety loss from soil moisture was developed using field measurements and a plant physiology-hydraulics model, TREES. The scheme was upscaled to Populus tremuloides forests across Colorado, USA, using LSM-modeled and topography-mediated soil moisture, respectively. The spatial patterns of hydraulic safety loss were compared against aerial surveyed mortality. Incorporating hydraulic safety loss raised the explanatory power of mortality by 40% compared to LSM-modeled soil moisture. Topographic convergence was mostly influential in suppressing mortality in low and concave areas, explaining an additional 10% of the variations in mortality for those regions. Plant hydraulics integrated water stress along the soil-plant continuum and was more closely tied to plant physiological response to drought. In addition to the well-recognized topo-climate influence due to elevation and aspect, we found evidence that topographic convergence mediates tree mortality in certain parts of the landscape that are low and convergent, likely through influences on plant-available water. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Rapid Reduction in Breast Cancer Mortality With Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Smith, Allan H.; Marshall, Guillermo; Yuan, Yan; Steinmaus, Craig; Liaw, Jane; Smith, Martyn T.; Wood, Lily; Heirich, Marissa; Fritzemeier, Rebecca M.; Pegram, Mark D.; Ferreccio, Catterina

2014-01-01

Background Arsenic trioxide is effective in treating promyelocytic leukemia, and laboratory studies demonstrate that arsenic trioxide causes apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. Region II in northern Chile experienced very high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water, especially in the main city Antofagasta from 1958 until an arsenic removal plant was installed in 1970. Methods We investigated breast cancer mortality from 1950 to 2010 among women in Region II compared to Region V, which had low arsenic water concentrations. We conducted studies on human breast cancer cell lines and compared arsenic exposure in Antofagasta with concentrations inducing apoptosis in laboratory studies. Findings Before 1958, breast cancer mortality rates were similar, but in 1958–1970 the rates in Region II were half those in Region V (rate ratio RR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.40–0.66; p < 0.0001). Women under the age of 60 experienced a 70% reduction in breast cancer mortality during 1965–1970 (RR = 0.30, 0.17–0.54; p < 0.0001). Breast cancer cell culture studies showed apoptosis at arsenic concentrations close to those estimated to have occurred in people in Region II. Interpretation We found biologically plausible major reductions in breast cancer mortality during high exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water which could not be attributed to bias or confounding. We recommend clinical trial assessment of inorganic arsenic in the treatment of advanced breast cancer. PMID:25580451

Tuberculin status, socioeconomic differences and differences in all-cause mortality: experience from Norwegian cohorts born 1910-49.

PubMed

Liestøl, Knut; Tretli, Steinar; Tverdal, Aage; Maehlen, Jan

2009-04-01

From 1948 to 1975, Norway had a mandatory tuberculosis (TB) screening programme with Pirquet testing, X-ray examinations and BCG vaccination. Electronic data registration in 1963-75 enabled the current study aimed at revealing (i) the relations between socioeconomic factors and tuberculosis infection and (ii) differences in later all-cause mortality according to TB infection status. TB screening data were linked to information from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry (1975-98) and the National Population and Housing Censuses (1960, 1970 and 1980). Analyses were done for 10 years cohorts born 1910-49, separately for men (approximately 534,000 individuals) and women (608,000), using logistic and Cox regressions. TB infection and X-ray data confirmed the strong regional pattern seen for TB mortality, with the highest rates in the three northernmost counties and higher rates in urban than rural areas. High socioeconomic status relates to lower odds both for TB infection and TB-related chest X-ray findings (odds ratios 0.6-0.7 for highest vs lowest educational groups). Those infected by TB, and especially those with chest X-ray findings, have increased all-cause mortality in at least a 20 years period following determination of tuberculin status (hazard ratios approximately 1.15 and 1.30, respectively, higher for late than early cohorts). TB particularly affected lower socioeconomic strata, but even those in higher strata were at high risk. The differences in all-cause mortality could partly be attributed to socioeconomic factors, but we hypothesize that developing TB infection may also indicate biological frailness.

Extended Mortality and Chronic Kidney Disease After Septic Acute Kidney Injury.

PubMed

Chua, Horng-Ruey; Wong, Weng-Kin; Ong, Venetia Huiling; Agrawal, Dipika; Vathsala, Anantharaman; Tay, Hui-Ming; Mukhopadhyay, Amartya

2018-01-01

To evaluate 1-year mortality in patients with septic acute kidney injury (AKI) and to determine association between initial AKI recovery patterns ( reversal within 5 days, beyond 5 days but recovery, or nonrecovery) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Prospective observational study, with retrospective evaluation of initial nonconsenters, of critically ill patients with septic AKI. We studied 207 patients (age, mean [SD]: 64 [16] years, 39% males), of which 56 (27%), 18 (9%), and 9 (4%) died in intensive care unit (ICU), post-ICU in hospital, and posthospitalization, respectively. Infections (including pneumonia) and major adverse cardiac events accounted for 64% and 12% of deaths, respectively. Factors independently associated with 1-year mortality include older age, ischemic heart disease, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, central nervous system or musculoskeletal primary infections, higher daily fluid balance (FB), and frusemide administration during ICU stay (all P < .05). Among 63 patients receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT), hospital mortality was higher with cumulative median FB >8 L versus ≤8 L at RRT initiation (57% vs 24%; P = .009); there was trend for less ICU- and RRT-free days at day 28 in patients with higher FB pre-RRT ( P = NS). Chronic kidney disease progression over 1 year developed in 21%, 30%, and 79% of 105 initial survivors with AKI reversal, recovery, and nonrecovery, respectively ( P < .001). Acute kidney injury nonrecovery during hospitalization independently predicted CKD progression ( P = .001). Patients with septic AKI had 40% 1-year mortality, mainly associated with infections. High FB and frusemide administration were modifiable risk factors. Risk of CKD progression is high especially with initial AKI nonrecovery.

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gerland, Patrick; Pelletier, François; Saabneh, Ameed

2012-01-01

Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of 4 q 1, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Conclusions Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of 5 q 0 is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952438

Co-infections determine patterns of mortality in a population exposed to parasite infection.

PubMed

Woolhouse, Mark E J; Thumbi, Samuel M; Jennings, Amy; Chase-Topping, Margo; Callaby, Rebecca; Kiara, Henry; Oosthuizen, Marinda C; Mbole-Kariuki, Mary N; Conradie, Ilana; Handel, Ian G; Poole, E Jane; Njiiri, Evalyne; Collins, Nicola E; Murray, Gemma; Tapio, Miika; Auguet, Olga Tosas; Weir, Willie; Morrison, W Ivan; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Bronsvoort, B Mark de C; Hanotte, Olivier; Coetzer, Koos; Toye, Philip G

2015-03-01

Many individual hosts are infected with multiple parasite species, and this may increase or decrease the pathogenicity of the infections. This phenomenon is termed heterologous reactivity and is potentially an important determinant of both patterns of morbidity and mortality and of the impact of disease control measures at the population level. Using infections with Theileria parva (a tick-borne protozoan, related to Plasmodium) in indigenous African cattle [where it causes East Coast fever (ECF)] as a model system, we obtain the first quantitative estimate of the effects of heterologous reactivity for any parasitic disease. In individual calves, concurrent co-infection with less pathogenic species of Theileria resulted in an 89% reduction in mortality associated with T. parva infection. Across our study population, this corresponds to a net reduction in mortality due to ECF of greater than 40%. Using a mathematical model, we demonstrate that this degree of heterologous protection provides a unifying explanation for apparently disparate epidemiological patterns: variable disease-induced mortality rates, age-mortality profiles, weak correlations between the incidence of infection and disease (known as endemic stability), and poor efficacy of interventions that reduce exposure to multiple parasite species. These findings can be generalized to many other infectious diseases, including human malaria, and illustrate how co-infections can play a key role in determining population-level patterns of morbidity and mortality due to parasite infections.

Generational and regional differences in trends of mortality from ischemic heart disease in Japan from 1969 to 1992.

PubMed

Okayama, A; Ueshima, H; Marmot, M; Elliott, P; Choudhury, S R; Kita, Y

2001-06-15

The authors compared generational and regional trends of premature mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) from 1969 to 1992 for persons aged 30-69 years. They selected Tokyo and Osaka prefectures as the most urbanized and compared them with the rest of Japan. The data were divided into two periods: period I (1969-1978, International Classification of Diseases, Eight Revision) and period II (1979-1992, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision). In both populations, IHD mortality decreased for both sexes, but mortality from nonspecific heart disease remained constant in men and decreased in women. In Tokyo and Osaka prefectures, the percentage decline per year in IHD mortality for both sexes was significantly smaller in period II than in period I. However, in the rest of Japan, it did not decrease for either sex. Age-specific analysis showed that the percentage decline per year in period II was smallest for the group aged 30-49 years (men, 0.05%; women, 0.76%) in Tokyo and Osaka prefectures, while it was similar for all age groups in the rest of Japan. For men, the IHD mortality rate in 1991-1992 for those aged 30-49 years was higher in Tokyo and Osaka prefectures (9.4/100,000) than in the rest of Japan (5.4/100,000).

Clinical benefit of cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator in patients with an ejection fraction > 35% estimated by cardiac magnetic resonance.

PubMed

Fabregat-Andrés, Oscar; García-González, Pilar; Valle-Muñoz, Alfonso; Estornell-Erill, Jordi; Pérez-Boscá, Leandro; Palanca-Gil, Victor; Payá-Serrano, Rafael; Quesada-Dorador, Aurelio; Morell, Salvador; Ridocci-Soriano, Francisco

2014-02-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator prolongs survival and improves quality of life in advanced heart failure. Traditionally, patients with ejection fraction > 35 estimated by echocardiography have been excluded. We assessed the prognostic impact of this therapy in a group of patients with severely depressed systolic function as assessed by echocardiography but with an ejection fraction > 35% as assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance. We analyzed consecutive patients admitted for decompensated heart failure between 2004 and 2011. The patients were in functional class II-IV, with a QRS ≥ to 120 ms, ejection fraction ≤ 35% estimated by echocardiography, and a cardiac magnetic resonance study. We included all patients (n=103) who underwent device implantation for primary prevention. Ventricular arrhythmia, all-cause mortality and readmission for heart failure were considered major cardiac events. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to systolic function assessed by magnetic resonance. The 2 groups showed similar improvements in functional class and ejection fraction at 6 months. We found a nonsignificant trend toward a higher risk of all-cause mortality in patients with systolic function ≤ 35% at long-term follow-up. The presence of a pattern of necrosis identified patients with a worse prognosis for ventricular arrhythmias and mortality in both groups. We conclude that cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator leads to a similar clinical benefit in patients with an ejection fraction ≤ 35% or > 35% estimated by cardiac magnetic resonance. Analysis of the pattern of late gadolinium enhancement provides additional information on arrhythmic risk and long-term prognosis. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Do sudden air temperature and pressure changes affect cardiovascular morbidity and mortality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plavcová, E.; Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.

2012-04-01

Previous studies have shown that sudden changes in weather (usually represented by air temperature and/or pressure) are associated with increases in daily mortality. Little is understood about physiological mechanisms responsible for the impacts of weather changes on mortality, and whether similar patterns appear for morbidity as well. Relatively little is known also about differences in the magnitude of the mortality response in provincial regions and in cities, where the impacts may be exacerbated by air pollution effects and/or heat island. The present study examines the effects of sudden air temperature and pressure changes on morbidity (represented by hospital admissions) and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in the population of the Czech Republic (approx. 10 million inhabitants) and separately in the city of Prague (1.2 million inhabitants). The events are selected from data covering 1994-2009 using the methodology introduced by Plavcová and Kyselý (2010), and they are compared with the datasets on hospital admissions and daily mortality (both standardized to account for long-term changes and the seasonal and weekly cycles). Relative deviations of morbidity/mortality from the baseline were averaged over the selected events for days D-2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. The study aims at (i) identifying those weather changes associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity/mortality, separately in summer and winter, (ii) comparing the effects of weather changes on morbidity and mortality, (iii) identifying whether urban population of Prague is more/less vulnerable in comparison to the population of the whole Czech Republic, (iv) comparing the effects for different cardiovascular diseases (ischaemic heart diseases, ICD-10 codes I20-I25; cerebrovascular diseases, I60-I69; hypertension, I10; atherosclerosis, I70) and individual population groups (by age and gender), and (v) identifying physiological mechanisms which play roles in deteriorating health conditions of vulnerable population groups. Plavcová E., Kyselý J., 2010: Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2005. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54, 539-551 [doi 10.1007/s00484-010-0303-7

Local Breast Cancer Spatial Patterning: A Tool for Community Health Resource Allocation to Address Local Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Brantley-Sieders, Dana M.; Fan, Kang-Hsien; Deming-Halverson, Sandra L.; Shyr, Yu; Cook, Rebecca S.

2012-01-01

Despite available demographic data on the factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality in large population datasets, local patterns are often overlooked. Such local information could provide a valuable metric by which regional community health resources can be allocated to reduce breast cancer mortality. We used national and statewide datasets to assess geographical distribution of breast cancer mortality rates and known risk factors influencing breast cancer mortality in middle Tennessee. Each county in middle Tennessee, and each ZIP code within metropolitan Davidson County, was scored for risk factor prevalence and assigned quartile scores that were used as a metric to identify geographic areas of need. While breast cancer mortality often correlated with age and incidence, geographic areas were identified in which breast cancer mortality rates did not correlate with age and incidence, but correlated with additional risk factors, such as mammography screening and socioeconomic status. Geographical variability in specific risk factors was evident, demonstrating the utility of this approach to identify local areas of risk. This method revealed local patterns in breast cancer mortality that might otherwise be overlooked in a more broadly based analysis. Our data suggest that understanding the geographic distribution of breast cancer mortality, and the distribution of risk factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality, will not only identify communities with the greatest need of support, but will identify the types of resources that would provide the most benefit to reduce breast cancer mortality in the community. PMID:23028869

Comparison and relationship of thyroid hormones, IL-6, IL-10 and albumin as mortality predictors in case-mix critically ill patients.

PubMed

Quispe E, Álvaro; Li, Xiang-Min; Yi, Hong

2016-05-01

To compare the ability of thyroid hormones, IL-6, IL-10, and albumin to predict mortality, and to assess their relationship in case-mix acute critically ill patients. APACHE II scores and serum thyroid hormones (FT3, FT4, and TSH), IL-6, IL-10, and albumin were obtained at EICU admission for 79 cases of mix acute critically ill patients without previous history of thyroid disease. Patients were followed for 28 days with patient's death as the primary outcome. All mean values were compared, correlations assessed with Pearson' test, and mortality prediction assessed by multivariate logistic regression and ROC. Non survivors were older, with higher APACHE II score (p=0.000), IL-6 (p<0.05), IL-10 (p=0.000) levels, and lower albumin (p=0.000) levels compared to survivors at 28 days. IL-6 and IL-10 had significant negative correlation with albumin (p=0.001) and FT3 (p ⩽ 0.05) respectively, while low albumin had a direct correlation with FT3 (p<0.05). In the mortality prediction assessment, IL-10, albumin and APACHE II were independent morality predictors and showed to have a good (0.70-0.79) AUC-ROC (p<0.05). Despite that the entire cohort showed low FT3 serum levels (p=0.000), there was not statistical difference between survivors and non-survivors; neither showed any significance as mortality predictor. IL-6 and IL-10 are correlated with Low FT3 and hypoalbuminemia. Thyroid hormones assessed at EICU admission did not have any predictive value in our study. And finally, high levels of IL-6 and IL-10 in conjunction with albumin could improve our ability to evaluate disease's severity and predict mortality in the critically ill patients. When use in combination with APACHE II scores, our model showed improved mortality prediction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

PubMed

Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Raso, José Miguel; Pérez-Zanón, Nuria

2015-04-01

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area. To achieve this purpose, we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels, in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes. The sequence length was determined by the short-term displacement between temperature and mortality. To detect this lag, we applied the cross-correlation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer. These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A 7-day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area. The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe, related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western Europe.

Sex composition of the workplace and mortality risk.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron J

2013-11-01

This study uses Swedish occupational register data to examine whether the proportion of men in administrative workplaces in the Swedish public service affects all-cause mortality risks amongst both males and females of working age. Using piecewise constant survival models to analyse occupational data from the Swedish administrative registers from 1995 to 2007, it was found that for males, a 1% increase in the proportion of males was associated with a 1.3% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio, HR 1.013, 95% CI 1.007-1.020, p<0.001), but no association was found for females (HR 1.004, 95% CI 0.996-1.012, p=0.297). Adjustments were made for age, family status, education, occupational status, occupational segregation by sex, the total number of individuals in the workplace, level of government, region, period and variables reflecting the workplace structure by age, age by sex, occupation and education. A higher proportion of males may be related to (i) an increased exposure to risky health behaviours such as alcohol consumption and unhealthy dietary patterns, (ii) a tendency towards sickness presenteeism, and (iii) an increase in the levels of several well-established emotional stressors in the workplace, leading to an increased level of psychosocial stress. The findings and potential extensions of this research are discussed.

Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients without diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet

2014-02-01

Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose <118 mg/dL (n = 166), tertile II: glucose 118 to 145 mg/dL (n = 168), and tertile III: glucose >145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.

Cancer mortality in the West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory.

PubMed

Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Gianicolo, Emilio Antonio Luca; Bruni, Antonella; Mitwali, Suzan; Portaluri, Maurizio; Bitar, Jawad; Hamad, Mutaem; Giacaman, Rita; Vigotti, Maria Angela

2016-01-26

The burden of cancer is difficult to study in the context of the occupied Palestinian territory because of the limited data available. This study aims to evaluate the quality of mortality data and to investigate cancer mortality patterns in the occupied Palestinian territory's West Bank governorates from 1999 to 2009. Death certificates collected by the Palestinian Ministry of Health for Palestinians living in the West Bank were used. Direct and indirect age-standardised mortality rates were computed and used to compare different governorates according to total and specific cancer mortality. Furthermore, standardised proportional mortality ratios were calculated to compare mortality by urban, rural and camp locales. The most common cause of death out of all cancer types was lung cancer among males (22.8 %) and breast cancer among females (21.5 %) followed by prostate cancer for males (9.5 %) and by colon cancer for females (11.4 %). Regional variations in cancer-specific causes of death were observed. The central- West Bank governorates had the lowest mortality for most cancer types among men and women. Mortality for lung cancer was highest in the north among men (SMR 109.6; 95%CI 99.5-120.4). For prostate cancer, mortality was highest in the north (SMR 103.6; 95%CI 88.5-120.5) and in the south (SMR 118.6; 95%CI 98.9-141.0). Breast cancer mortality was highest in the south (SMR 119.3; 95%CI 103.9-136.2). Similar mortality rate patterns were found in urban, rural and camp locales. The quality of the Palestinian mortality registry has improved over time. Results in the West Bank governorates present different mortality patterns. The differences might be explained by personal, contextual and environmental factors that need future in-depth investigations.

Ground-level falls: 9-year cumulative experience in a regionalized trauma system

PubMed Central

Cade, Angela; King, Brad; Berne, John; Fernandez, Luis; Norwood, Scott

2012-01-01

Ground-level falls (GLFs) are the leading cause of nonfatal hospitalized injuries in the US. We hypothesized that risk-adjusted mortality would not vary between levels of trauma center verification if regional triage functioned appropriately. Data were collected from our regional trauma registry for the years 2001 through 2009. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model was developed to compare risk-adjusted mortality rates by trauma center level and by year. GLF patients numbered 8202 over 9 years with 2.1% mortality. Mean age was 74.5 years and mean probability of death was 0.021 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.020–0.021). The level I center–treated patients had the highest probability of death (0.033) compared to levels II and III/IV patients (0.023 and 0.018, respectively; P < 0.001), with the highest mortality (6.0%, 3.1%, and 1.1% for levels I, II, and III/IV; P < 0.001). The adjusted odds ratio of mortality was lowest at the level I center (0.71; 95% CI, 0.56–0.91), while no difference existed between level II (1.17; 95% CI, 0.90–1.51) and level III/IV centers (1.22; 95% CI, 0.90–1.66). The 95% CIs for risk-adjusted mortality by year overlapped the 1.0 reference line for each year from 2002 to 2009. In conclusion, regional risk-adjusted mortality for GLF has varied little since 2002. More study is warranted to understand the lower risk-adjusted GLF mortality at the level I center for this growing patient population. PMID:22275774

Patterns of Mortality in Patients Treated with Dental Implants: A Comparison of Patient Age Groups and Corresponding Reference Populations.

PubMed

Jemt, Torsten; Kowar, Jan; Nilsson, Mats; Stenport, Victoria

2015-01-01

Little is known about the relationship between implant patient mortality compared to reference populations. The aim of this study was to report the mortality pattern in patients treated with dental implants up to a 15-year period, and to compare this to mortality in reference populations with regard to age at surgery, sex, and degree of tooth loss. Patient cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated for a total of 4,231 treated implant patients from a single clinic. Information was based on surgical registers in the clinic and the National Population Register in Sweden. Patients were arranged into age groups of 10 years, and CSR was compared to that of the reference population of comparable age and reported in relation to age at surgery, sex, and type of jaw/dentition. A similar, consistent, general relationship between CSR of different age groups of implant patients and reference populations could be observed for all parameters studied. Completely edentulous patients presented higher mortality than partially edentulous patients (P < .05). Furthermore, implant patients in younger age groups showed mortality similar to or higher than reference populations, while older patient age groups showed increasingly lower mortality than comparable reference populations for edentulous and partially edentulous patients (P < .05). A consistent pattern of mortality in different age groups of patients compared to reference populations was observed, indicating higher patient mortality in younger age groups and lower in older groups. The reported pattern is not assumed to be related to implant treatment per se, but is assumed to reflect the variation in general health of a selected subgroup of treated implant patients compared to the reference population in different age groups.

Mortality and community changes drive sudden oak death impacts on litterfall and soil nitrogen cycling.

PubMed

Cobb, Richard C; Eviner, Valerie T; Rizzo, David M

2013-10-01

Few studies have quantified pathogen impacts to ecosystem processes, despite the fact that pathogens cause or contribute to regional-scale tree mortality. We measured litterfall mass, litterfall chemistry, and soil nitrogen (N) cycling associated with multiple hosts along a gradient of mortality caused by Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death. In redwood forests, the epidemiological and ecological characteristics of the major overstory species determine disease patterns and the magnitude and nature of ecosystem change. Bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) has high litterfall N (0.992%), greater soil extractable NO3 -N, and transmits infection without suffering mortality. Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) has moderate litterfall N (0.723%) and transmits infection while suffering extensive mortality that leads to higher extractable soil NO3 -N. Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) has relatively low litterfall N (0.519%), does not suffer mortality or transmit the pathogen, but dominates forest biomass. The strongest impact of pathogen-caused mortality was the potential shift in species composition, which will alter litterfall chemistry, patterns and dynamics of litterfall mass, and increase soil NO3 -N availability. Patterns of P. ramorum spread and consequent mortality are closely associated with bay laurel abundances, suggesting this species will drive both disease emergence and subsequent ecosystem function. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Patterns of Mass Mortality among Rocky Shore Invertebrates across 100 km of Northeastern Pacific Coastline

PubMed Central

Jurgens, Laura J.; Rogers-Bennett, Laura; Raimondi, Peter T.; Schiebelhut, Lauren M.; Dawson, Michael N.; Grosberg, Richard K.; Gaylord, Brian

2015-01-01

Mass mortalities in natural populations, particularly those that leave few survivors over large spatial areas, may cause long-term ecological perturbations. Yet mass mortalities may remain undocumented or poorly described due to challenges in responding rapidly to unforeseen events, scarcity of baseline data, and difficulties in quantifying rare or patchily distributed species, especially in remote or marine systems. Better chronicling the geographic pattern and intensity of mass mortalities is especially critical in the face of global changes predicted to alter regional disturbance regimes. Here, we couple replicated post-mortality surveys with preceding long-term surveys and historical data to describe a rapid and severe mass mortality of rocky shore invertebrates along the north-central California coast of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. In late August 2011, formerly abundant intertidal populations of the purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, a well-known ecosystem engineer), and the predatory six-armed sea star (Leptasterias sp.) were functionally extirpated from ~100 km of coastline. Other invertebrates, including the gumboot chiton (Cryptochiton stelleri) the ochre sea star (Pisaster ochraceus), and subtidal populations of purple sea urchins also exhibited elevated mortality. The pattern and extent of mortality suggest the potential for long-term population, community, and ecosystem consequences, recovery from which may depend on the different dispersal abilities of the affected species. PMID:26039349

Multi-species patterns of avian cholera mortality in Nebraska's rainwater basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blanchong, Julie A.; Samuel, M.D.; Mack, G.

2006-01-01

Nebraska's Rainwater Basin (RWB) is a key spring migration area for millions of waterfowl and other avian species. Avian cholera has been endemic in the RWB since the 1970s and in some years tens of thousands of waterfowl have died from the disease. We evaluated patterns of avian cholera mortality in waterfowl species using the RWB during the last quarter of the 20th century. Mortality patterns changed between the years before (1976 - 1988) and coincident with (1989 - 1999) the dramatic increases in lesser snow goose abundance and mortality. Lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) have commonly been associated with mortality events in the RWB and are known to carry virulent strains of Pasteurella multocida, the agent causing avian cholera. Lesser snow geese appeared to be the species most affected by avian cholera during 1989 - 1999; however, mortality in several other waterfowl species was positively correlated with lesser snow goose mortality. Coincident with increased lesser snow goose mortality, spring avian cholera outbreaks were detected earlier and ended earlier compared to 1976 - 1988. Dense concentrations of lesser snow geese may facilitate intraspecific disease transmission through bird-to-bird contact and wetland contamination. Rates of interspecific avian cholera transmission within the waterfowl community, however, are difficult to determine.

Pediatric Asthma Mortality and Hospitalization Trends Across Asia Pacific Relationship With Asthma Drug Utilization Patterns

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The wide variability in prevalence of childhood asthma across Asia Pacific is well documented, but less is known about its trends in mortality and hospitalization. Objectives To examine pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization trends of selected countries across Asia Pacific, and also patterns of asthma drug utilization. Materials and Methods Mortality and population data were sourced from the World Health Organization's mortality database. Data on hospitalization were obtained by direct inquiry and from government and scientific publications. Drug use for asthma was expressed as a controller-to-reliever (C:R) ratio (ie, units of inhaled corticosteroids/units of short-acting β-agonists, sold in each country). Time-series regression analyses were used to examine temporal patterns and study association between deaths, hospitalizations, and drug use. Results Japan showed a decreasing trend in pediatric asthma mortality whereas an increase was observed in Thailand. Hospitalizations decreased in Australia and Singapore but increased in Taiwan, Republic of China. C:R ratios increased significantly across the countries. Conclusions Mixed trends in pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization rates were observed, which coincided with a uniform increase in C:R ratios. This may reflect importance of other aspects of asthma management besides pharmacotherapy. PMID:23283014

Validation of APACHE II scoring system at 24 hours after admission as a prognostic tool in urosepsis: A prospective observational study.

PubMed

VijayGanapathy, Sundaramoorthy; Karthikeyan, VIlvapathy Senguttuvan; Sreenivas, Jayaram; Mallya, Ashwin; Keshavamurthy, Ramaiah

2017-11-01

Urosepsis implies clinically evident severe infection of urinary tract with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We validate the role of a single Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score at 24 hours after admission in predicting mortality in urosepsis. A prospective observational study was done in 178 patients admitted with urosepsis in the Department of Urology, in a tertiary care institute from January 2015 to August 2016. Patients >18 years diagnosed as urosepsis using SIRS criteria with positive urine or blood culture for bacteria were included. At 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit, APACHE II score was calculated using 12 physiological variables, age and chronic health. Mean±standard deviation (SD) APACHE II score was 26.03±7.03. It was 24.31±6.48 in survivors and 32.39±5.09 in those expired (p<0.001). Among patients undergoing surgery, mean±SD score was higher (30.74±4.85) than among survivors (24.30±6.54) (p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed area under curve (AUC) of 0.825 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 56.4% specific to predict mortality. Mean±SD score in those undergoing surgery was 25.22±6.70 and was lesser than those who did not undergo surgery (28.44±7.49) (p=0.007). ROC analysis revealed AUC of 0.760 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 45.6% specific to predict mortality even after surgery. A single APACHE II score assessed at 24 hours after admission was able to predict morbidity, mortality, need for surgical intervention, length of hospitalization, treatment success and outcome in urosepsis patients.

Prognostic scores in cirrhotic patients admitted to a gastroenterology intensive care unit.

PubMed

Freire, Paulo; Romãozinho, José M; Amaro, Pedro; Ferreira, Manuela; Sofia, Carlos

2011-04-01

prognostic scores have been validated in cirrhotic patients admitted to general Intensive Care Units. No assessment of these scores was performed in cirrhotics admitted to specialized Gastroenterology Intensive Care Units (GICUs). to assess the prognostic accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) in predicting GICU mortality in cirrhotic patients. the study involved 124 consecutive cirrhotic admissions to a GICU. Clinical data, prognostic scores and mortality were recorded. Discrimination was evaluated with area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. GICU mortality was 9.7%. Mean APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores for survivors (13.6, 25.4, 3.5,18.0 and 8.6, respectively) were found to be significantly lower than those of non-survivors (22.0, 47.5, 10.1, 30.7 and 12.5,respectively) (p < 0.001). All the prognostic systems showed good discrimination, with AUC = 0.860, 0.911, 0.868, 0.897 and 0.914 for APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT, respectively. Similarly, APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores achieved good calibration, with p = 0.146, 0.120, 0.686,0.267 and 0.120, respectively. The overall correctness of prediction was 81.9%, 86.1%, 93.3%, 90.7% and 87.7% for the APA-CHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, MELD and CPT scores, respectively. in cirrhotics admitted to a GICU, all the tested scores have good prognostic accuracy, with SOFA and MELD showing the greatest overall correctness of prediction.

Long-term forecasting and comparison of mortality in the Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) trial: prospective validation of the SYNTAX Score II.

PubMed

Campos, Carlos M; van Klaveren, David; Farooq, Vasim; Simonton, Charles A; Kappetein, Arie-Pieter; Sabik, Joseph F; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Stone, Gregg W; Serruys, Patrick W

2015-05-21

To prospectively validate the SYNTAX Score II and forecast the outcomes of the randomized Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) Trial. Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization is a prospective, randomized multicenter trial designed to establish the efficacy and safety of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the everolimus-eluting stent compared with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in subjects with unprotected left-main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease and low-intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (<33). After completion of patient recruitment in EXCEL, the SYNTAX Score II was prospectively applied to predict 4-year mortality in the CABG and PCI arms. The 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for mortality were computed using simulation with bootstrap resampling (10 000 times). For the entire study cohort, the 4-year predicted mortalities were 8.5 and 10.5% in the PCI and CABG arms, respectively [odds ratios (OR) 0.79; 95% PI 0.43-1.50). In subjects with low (≤22) anatomical SYNTAX scores, the predicted OR was 0.69 (95% PI 0.34-1.45); in intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (23-32), the predicted OR was 0.93 (95% PI 0.53-1.62). Based on 4-year mortality predictions in EXCEL, clinical characteristics shifted long-term mortality predictions either in favour of PCI (older age, male gender and COPD) or CABG (younger age, lower creatinine clearance, female gender, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction). The SYNTAX Score II indicates at least an equipoise for long-term mortality between CABG and PCI in subjects with ULMCA disease up to an intermediate anatomical complexity. Both anatomical and clinical characteristics had a clear impact on long-term mortality predictions and decision making between CABG and PCI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Red blood cell distribution width as a risk factor for inhospital mortality in obstetric patients admitted to an intensive care unit: a single centre retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chu, Yufeng; Yuan, Zhongshang; Meng, Mei; Zhou, Haiyan; Wang, Chunting; Yang, Gong; Ren, Hongsheng

2017-06-21

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been shown to predict mortality in critically ill patients. To our knowledge, whether or not RDW is associated with clinical outcomes of obstetric patients requiring critical care has not been evaluated. This was a single centre, retrospective, observational study of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients were excluded from the analysis if they had known haematological diseases or recently underwent blood transfusion. Patients who died or were discharged from the ICU within 24 hours of admission were also excluded. Patient clinical characteristics at ICU admission were retrieved from the medical charts. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate OR and 95% CI for inhospital mortality associated with RDW. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to examine the performance of RDW, alone or in combination with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (APACHE II), in predicting inhospital mortality. A total of 376 patients were included in the study. The hospital mortality rate was 5.32%. A significant association was found between baseline RDW levels and hospital mortality (OR per per cent increase in RDW, 1.31; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.49). Further adjustment for haematocrit and other potential confounders did not appreciably alter the result (p<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for inhospital mortality based on RDW was similar to that based on the APACHE II score (0.752 vs 0.766). A combination of these two factors resulted in substantial improvement in risk prediction, with an AUC value of 0.872 (p<0.001). The study suggests that RDW is an independent predictor for inhospital mortality among ICU admitted obstetric patients. Combining RDW and APACHE II score could significantly improve inhospital prognostic prediction among these critically ill obstetric patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Dietary patterns: biomarkers and chronic disease risk.

PubMed

Kant, Ashima K

2010-04-01

With increasing appreciation of the complexity of diets consumed by free-living individuals, there is interest in the assessment of the overall diet or dietary patterns in which multiple related dietary characteristics are considered as a single exposure. The 2 most frequently used methods to derive dietary patterns use (i) scores or indexes based on prevailing hypotheses about the role of dietary factors in disease prevention; and (ii) factors and clusters from exploration of available dietary data. A third method, a hybrid of the hypothesis-driven and data-driven methods, attempts to predict food combinations related to nutrients or biomarkers with hypothesized associations with particular health outcomes. Dietary patterns derived from the first 2 approaches have been examined in relation to nutritional and disease biomarkers and various health outcomes, and generally show the desirable dietary pattern to be consistent with prevalent beliefs about what constitutes a healthful diet. Results from observational studies suggest that the healthful dietary patterns were associated with significant but modest risk reduction (15%-30%) for all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease. Findings for various cancers have been inconsistent. The available randomized controlled intervention trials with a long-term follow-up to examine dietary patterns in relation to health outcome have generally produced null findings. Novel findings with the potential to change existing beliefs about diet and health relationships are yet to emerge from the dietary patterns research. The field requires innovation in methods to derive dietary patterns, validation of prevalent methods, and assessment of the effect of dietary measurement error on dietary patterns.

Aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury Evgeny

2009-01-01

The pronounced fluctuations in cardiovascular mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. The mounting evidence suggests that binge drinking pattern is a potentially important contributor to higher cardiovascular mortality rate in the former Soviet republics. There is assumption that if occasional heavy drinking of strong spirits increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality, countries where this is predominant drinking pattern should display positive association between spirits consumption and cardiovascular mortality at the aggregate level. To estimate the aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate in drinking culture, which combine a higher level of spirits consumption per capita with the explosive drinking pattern. Trends in beverage specific alcohol sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis. The results of time series analysis suggest positive relation between strong spirits (vodka) sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate. The analysis suggests that a 1 liter increase in vodka sale per capita would result in a 7.2% increase in myocardial infarction mortality rate (8.2% increase in male mortality and 6.8% increase in female mortality). the results of the present study suggest a positive relation between vodka sale and myocardial infarction mortality rate at aggregate level and support the hypothesis that binge drinking of strong spirits is a risk factor of myocardial infarction at the individual level. Thus, from a public policy point of view, the outcome of this study suggests that cardiovascularrelated mortality prevention programs should put more focus on addressing alcohol consumption structure.

A trauma network with centralized and local health care structures: Evaluating the effectiveness of the first certified Trauma Network of the German Society of Trauma Surgery

PubMed Central

Koller, Michael; Zeman, Florian; Kerschbaum, Maximilian; Hilber, Franz; Diepold, Eva; Loss, Julika; Herbst, Tanja; Nerlich, Michael

2018-01-01

Background Trauma is a global burden of disease and one of the main causes of death worldwide. Therefore, many countries around the world have implemented a wide range of different initiatives to minimize mortality rates after trauma. One of these initiatives is the bundling of treatment expertise in trauma centers and the establishment of trauma networks. Germany has a decentralized system of trauma care medical centers. Severely injured patients ought to receive adequate treatment in both level I and level II centers. This study investigated the effectiveness of a decentralized network and the question whether level I and level II centers have comparable patient outcome. Materials and methods In 2009, the first trauma network DGU® in Germany was certified in the rural area of Eastern Bavaria. All patients admitted to the 25 participating hospitals were prospectively included in this network in the framework of a study sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research between March 2012 and February 2014. 2 hospitals were level I centers (maximal care centers), 8 hospitals were level II centers, and 15 hospitals were level III centers. The criterion for study inclusion was an injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 for patients´ primarily admitted to a level I or a level II center. Exclusion criteria were transferal to another hospital within 48 h, an unknown revised injury severity classification II score (RISC II), or primary admittance to a level III center (n = 52). 875 patients were included in the study. Univariate analyses were used regarding the preclinical and clinical parameters, the primary endpoint mortality rate, and the secondary endpoints length of stay, organ failure, and neurological outcome (GOS). The primary endpoint was additionally evaluated by means of multivariable analysis. Results Indices for injury severity (GCS, AISHead, ISS, and NISS) as well as the predicted probability of death (RISC II) were higher in level I centers than in level II centers. No significant differences were found between the mortality rate of the unadjusted analysis [level I: 21.6% (CI: 16.5, 27.9), level II: 18.1% (CI: 14.4, 22.5), p = 0.28] and that of the adjusted analysis [level I SMR: 0.94 (CI: 0.72, 1.21), level II SMR: 1.18 (CI 0.95, 1.48) SMR: expected vs. calculated mortality rate according to RISC II]. Multivariable analysis showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13% (RISC II). The number need to treat was 10 patients. Discussion This study showed that a rural trauma network with centralized and local structures may achieve equivalent results with regard to mortality rates to those obtained in level I and level II centers. These results were furthered by a certain preclinical centralization (24/7 air rescue) of patients. The study also showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13%. Preclinical and initial clinical evaluation with regard to probable mortality rates should be further improved to identify patients who would benefit from admittance to a level I center. PMID:29538456

A trauma network with centralized and local health care structures: Evaluating the effectiveness of the first certified Trauma Network of the German Society of Trauma Surgery.

PubMed

Ernstberger, Antonio; Koller, Michael; Zeman, Florian; Kerschbaum, Maximilian; Hilber, Franz; Diepold, Eva; Loss, Julika; Herbst, Tanja; Nerlich, Michael

2018-01-01

Trauma is a global burden of disease and one of the main causes of death worldwide. Therefore, many countries around the world have implemented a wide range of different initiatives to minimize mortality rates after trauma. One of these initiatives is the bundling of treatment expertise in trauma centers and the establishment of trauma networks. Germany has a decentralized system of trauma care medical centers. Severely injured patients ought to receive adequate treatment in both level I and level II centers. This study investigated the effectiveness of a decentralized network and the question whether level I and level II centers have comparable patient outcome. In 2009, the first trauma network DGU® in Germany was certified in the rural area of Eastern Bavaria. All patients admitted to the 25 participating hospitals were prospectively included in this network in the framework of a study sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research between March 2012 and February 2014. 2 hospitals were level I centers (maximal care centers), 8 hospitals were level II centers, and 15 hospitals were level III centers. The criterion for study inclusion was an injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 for patients´ primarily admitted to a level I or a level II center. Exclusion criteria were transferal to another hospital within 48 h, an unknown revised injury severity classification II score (RISC II), or primary admittance to a level III center (n = 52). 875 patients were included in the study. Univariate analyses were used regarding the preclinical and clinical parameters, the primary endpoint mortality rate, and the secondary endpoints length of stay, organ failure, and neurological outcome (GOS). The primary endpoint was additionally evaluated by means of multivariable analysis. Indices for injury severity (GCS, AISHead, ISS, and NISS) as well as the predicted probability of death (RISC II) were higher in level I centers than in level II centers. No significant differences were found between the mortality rate of the unadjusted analysis [level I: 21.6% (CI: 16.5, 27.9), level II: 18.1% (CI: 14.4, 22.5), p = 0.28] and that of the adjusted analysis [level I SMR: 0.94 (CI: 0.72, 1.21), level II SMR: 1.18 (CI 0.95, 1.48) SMR: expected vs. calculated mortality rate according to RISC II]. Multivariable analysis showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13% (RISC II). The number need to treat was 10 patients. This study showed that a rural trauma network with centralized and local structures may achieve equivalent results with regard to mortality rates to those obtained in level I and level II centers. These results were furthered by a certain preclinical centralization (24/7 air rescue) of patients. The study also showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13%. Preclinical and initial clinical evaluation with regard to probable mortality rates should be further improved to identify patients who would benefit from admittance to a level I center.

Level and pattern of overstory retention influence rates and forms of tree mortality in mature, coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Lauren S. Urgenson; Charles B. Halpern; Paul D. Anderson

2013-01-01

Mortality of retained trees can compromise the ecological objectives of variable-retention harvest. We used a large-scale experiment replicated at six locations in western Washington and Oregon to examine the influences of retention level (40% vs. 15% of original basal area) and its spatial pattern (aggregated vs.dispersed) on the rate and form of tree mortality for 11...

Dietary patterns and risk of death and progression to ESRD in individuals with CKD: a cohort study.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Orlando M; Muntner, Paul; Rizk, Dana V; McClellan, William M; Warnock, David G; Newby, P K; Judd, Suzanne E

2014-08-01

Nutrition is linked strongly with health outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, few studies have examined relationships between dietary patterns and health outcomes in persons with CKD. Observational cohort study. 3,972 participants with CKD (defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or albumin-creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g at baseline) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study, a prospective cohort study of 30,239 black and white adults at least 45 years of age. 5 empirically derived dietary patterns identified by factor analysis: "convenience" (Chinese and Mexican foods, pizza, and other mixed dishes), "plant-based" (fruits and vegetables), "sweets/fats" (sugary foods), "Southern" (fried foods, organ meats, and sweetened beverages), and "alcohol/salads" (alcohol, green-leafy vegetables, and salad dressing). All-cause mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). 816 deaths and 141 ESRD events were observed over approximately 6 years of follow-up. There were no statistically significant associations of convenience, sweets/fats, or alcohol/salads pattern scores with all-cause mortality after multivariable adjustment. In Cox regression models adjusted for sociodemographic factors, energy intake, comorbid conditions, and baseline kidney function, higher plant-based pattern scores (indicating greater consistency with the pattern) were associated with lower risk of mortality (HR comparing fourth to first quartile, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.97), whereas higher Southern pattern scores were associated with greater risk of mortality (HR comparing fourth to first quartile, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.19-1.92). There were no associations of dietary patterns with incident ESRD in multivariable-adjusted models. Missing dietary pattern data, potential residual confounding from lifestyle factors. A Southern dietary pattern rich in processed and fried foods was associated independently with mortality in persons with CKD. In contrast, a diet rich in fruits and vegetables appeared to be protective. Copyright © 2014 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

APACHE II score in massive upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from peptic ulcer: prognostic value and potential clinical applications.

PubMed

Schein, M; Gecelter, G

1989-07-01

This study examined the prognostic value of the APACHE II scoring system in patients undergoing emergency operations for bleeding peptic ulcer. There were 96 operations for gastric ulcers and 58 for duodenal ulcers. The mean scores in survivors and in patients who died were 10.8 and 17.5 respectively. None of the 66 patients with an APACHE II score less than 11 died, while the mortality rate in those scored greater than 10 was 22 per cent. In patients scored greater than 10 non-resective procedures carried less risk of mortality than gastrectomy. The APACHE II score is useful when measuring the severity of the acute disease and predicting the outcome in these patients. If used in daily practice it may assist the surgeon in stratifying patients into a low-risk group (score less than 11) in which major operations are well tolerated and outcome is favourable and a high-risk group (score greater than 10) in which the risk of mortality is high and the performance of procedures of lesser magnitude is probably more likely to improve survival.

Beverage-specific alcohol sales and violent mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury Evgeny

2010-01-01

High violent mortality rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over recent decades have attracted considerable interest. A mounting body of evidence points to the binge drinking pattern as a potentially important contributor to the violent mortality crisis in Russia. In line with this evidence, we assume that higher level of vodka consumption in conjunction with binge drinking pattern results in close aggregate-level association between vodka sales and violent mortality rates in Russia. To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and mortality rates from external causes in Russia between 1980 and 2005 were analyzed by means of ARIMA time-series analysis. Results of the analysis indicate that violent mortality rates tend to be more responsive to change in vodka sales per capita than to change in total level of alcohol sales. The analysis suggests that a 1-litre increase in vodka sales per capita would result in a 5% increase in violent mortality rate, an 11.3% increase in accidents and injuries mortality rate, a 9.2% increase in suicide rate, a 12.5% increase in homicide rate, and a 21.9% increase in fatal alcohol poisoning rate. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol played a crucial role in the fluctuation in violent mortality rate in Russia in recent decades. Assuming that drinking vodka is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the binge drinking pattern is an important determinant of the violent mortality crisis in Russia.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics.

PubMed

Hasanpour Mir, Mahsa; Yousefshahi, Fardin; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Ahmadi, Arezoo; Nadjafi, Atabak; Mojtahedzadeh, Mojtaba

2012-12-30

The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia.To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury.

Unaccompanied evacuation and adult mortality: evaluating the finnish policy of evacuating children to foster care during World War II.

PubMed

Santavirta, Torsten

2014-09-01

I examined associations between evacuation of Finnish children to temporary foster care in Sweden during World War II and all-cause mortality between ages 38 and 78 years. I used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate mortality risk according to whether the individual was evacuated during childhood or not. I used within-sibling analysis to control for all unobserved socioeconomic and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Individual-level data for Finnish cohorts born in 1933 to 1944 were derived from wartime government records, Finnish census data from 1950 and 1970, and death cause registry from 1971 to 2011. I found no statistically significant association between evacuation and all-cause mortality when all exposed individuals were included in the analysis. However, subgroup analysis showed that men evacuated before age 4 years had a 1.31 higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.69) than their nonevacuated counterparts. In the aggregate, individuals do not have elevated mortality risk as a consequence of foster care during early childhood owing to the onset of sudden external shocks (e.g., wars).

Commonly used severity scores are not good predictors of mortality in sepsis from severe leptospirosis: a series of ten patients.

PubMed

Velissaris, Dimitrios; Karanikolas, Menelaos; Flaris, Nikolaos; Fligou, Fotini; Marangos, Markos; Filos, Kriton S

2012-01-01

Introduction. Severe leptospirosis, also known as Weil's disease, can cause multiorgan failure with high mortality. Scoring systems for disease severity have not been validated for leptospirosis, and there is no documented method to predict mortality. Methods. This is a case series on 10 patients admitted to ICU for multiorgan failure from severe leptospirosis. Data were collected retrospectively, with approval from the Institution Ethics Committee. Results. Ten patients with severe leptospirosis were admitted in the Patras University Hospital ICU in a four-year period. Although, based on SOFA scores, predicted mortality was over 80%, seven of 10 patients survived and were discharged from the hospital in good condition. There was no association between SAPS II or SOFA scores and mortality, but survivors had significantly lower APACHE II scores compared to nonsurvivors. Conclusion. Commonly used severity scores do not seem to be useful in predicting mortality in severe leptospirosis. Early ICU admission and resuscitation based on a goal-directed therapy protocol are recommended and may reduce mortality. However, this study is limited by retrospective data collection and small sample size. Data from large prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

Early detection strategy and mortality reduction in severe sepsis.

PubMed

Westphal, Glauco Adrieno; Feijó, Janaína; Andrade, Patrícia Silva de; Trindade, Louise; Suchard, Cezar; Monteiro, Márcio Andrei Gil; Martins, Sheila Fonseca; Nunes, Fernanda; Caldeira Filho, Milton

2009-06-01

To evaluate the impact of implementing an institutional policy for detection of severe sepsis and septic shock. Study before (stage I), after (stage II) with prospective data collection in a 195 bed public hospital.. Stage I: Patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were included consecutively over 15 months and treated according to the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines. Stage II: In the 10 subsequent months, patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were enrolled based on an active search for signs suggesting infection (SSI) in hospitalized patients. The two stages were compared for demographic variables, time needed for recognition of at least two signs suggesting infection (SSI-Δt), compliance to the bundles of 6 and 24 hours and mortality. We identified 124 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, 68 in stage I and 56 in stage II. The demographic variables were similar in both stages. The Δt-SSI was 34 ± 54 hours in stage I and 7 ± 8.4 hours in stage II (p <0.001). There was no difference in compliance to the bundles. In parallel there was significant reduction of mortality rates at 28 days (54.4% versus 30%, p <0.02) and hospital (67.6% versus 41%, p <0.003). The strategy used helped to identify early risk of sepsis and resulted in decreased mortality associated with severe sepsis and septic shock.

ABOVE- AND BELOWGROUND CONTROLS ON FOREST TREE GROWTH, MORTALITY AND SPATIAL PATTERN

EPA Science Inventory

We investigated the relative importance of above- and belowground competition in controlling growth, mortality and spatial patterns of trees in a nitrogen-limited, old-growth forest in western Oregon. To assess the effects of competition for light, we applied a spatially-explici...

Analysis of Pathogen and Host Factors Related to Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia Due to Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

PubMed Central

Haque, Nadia Z.; Arshad, Samia; Peyrani, Paula; Ford, Kimbal D.; Perri, Mary B.; Jacobsen, Gordon; Reyes, Katherine; Scerpella, Ernesto G.; Ramirez, Julio A.

2012-01-01

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of nosocomial pneumonia. To characterize pathogen-derived and host-related factors in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with MRSA pneumonia, we evaluated the Improving Medicine through Pathway Assessment of Critical Therapy in Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia (IMPACT-HAP) database. We performed multivariate regression analyses of 28-day mortality and clinical response using univariate analysis variables at a P level of <0.25. In isolates from 251 patients, the most common molecular characteristics were USA100 (55.0%) and USA300 (23.9%), SCCmec types II (64.1%) and IV (33.1%), and agr I (36.7%) and II (61.8%). Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) was present in 21.9%, and vancomycin heteroresistance was present in 15.9%. Mortality occurred in 37.1% of patients; factors in the univariate analysis were age, APACHE II score, AIDS, cardiac disease, vascular disease, diabetes, SCCmec type II, PVL negativity, and higher vancomycin MIC (all P values were <0.05). In multivariate analysis, independent predictors were APACHE II score (odds ratio [OR], 1.090; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.041 to 1.141; P < 0.001) and age (OR, 1.024; 95% CI, 1.003 to 1.046; P = 0.02). Clinical failure occurred in 36.8% of 201 evaluable patients; the only independent predictor was APACHE II score (OR, 1.082; 95% CI, 1.031 to 1.136; P = 0.002). In summary, APACHE II score (mortality, clinical failure) and age (mortality) were the only independent predictors, which is consistent with severity of illness in ICU patients with MRSA pneumonia. Interestingly, our univariate findings suggest that both pathogen and host factors influence outcomes. As the epidemiology of MRSA pneumonia continues to evolve, both pathogen- and host-related factors should be considered when describing epidemiological trends and outcomes of therapeutic interventions. PMID:22337980

Fine Particulate Matter and Total Mortality in Cancer Prevention Study Cohort Reanalysis.

PubMed

Enstrom, James E

2017-01-01

In 1997 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), largely because of its positive relationship to total mortality in the 1982 American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study (CPS II) cohort. Subsequently, EPA has used this relationship as the primary justification for many costly regulations, most recently the Clean Power Plan. An independent analysis of the CPS II data was conducted in order to test the validity of this relationship. The original CPS II questionnaire data, including 1982 to 1988 mortality follow-up, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results were obtained for 292 277 participants in 85 counties with 1979-1983 EPA Inhalable Particulate Network PM 2.5 measurements, as well as for 212 370 participants in the 50 counties used in the original 1995 analysis. The 1982 to 1988 relative risk (RR) of death from all causes and 95% confidence interval adjusted for age, sex, race, education, and smoking status was 1.023 (0.997-1.049) for a 10 µg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 in 85 counties and 1.025 (0.990-1.061) in the 50 original counties. The fully adjusted RR was null in the western and eastern portions of the United States, including in areas with somewhat higher PM 2.5 levels, particularly 5 Ohio Valley states and California. No significant relationship between PM 2.5 and total mortality in the CPS II cohort was found when the best available PM 2.5 data were used. The original 1995 analysis found a positive relationship by selective use of CPS II and PM 2.5 data. This independent analysis of underlying data raises serious doubts about the CPS II epidemiologic evidence supporting the PM 2.5 NAAQS. These findings provide strong justification for further independent analysis of the CPS II data.

Fine Particulate Matter and Total Mortality in Cancer Prevention Study Cohort Reanalysis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: In 1997 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), largely because of its positive relationship to total mortality in the 1982 American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study (CPS II) cohort. Subsequently, EPA has used this relationship as the primary justification for many costly regulations, most recently the Clean Power Plan. An independent analysis of the CPS II data was conducted in order to test the validity of this relationship. Methods: The original CPS II questionnaire data, including 1982 to 1988 mortality follow-up, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results were obtained for 292 277 participants in 85 counties with 1979-1983 EPA Inhalable Particulate Network PM2.5 measurements, as well as for 212 370 participants in the 50 counties used in the original 1995 analysis. Results: The 1982 to 1988 relative risk (RR) of death from all causes and 95% confidence interval adjusted for age, sex, race, education, and smoking status was 1.023 (0.997-1.049) for a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 in 85 counties and 1.025 (0.990-1.061) in the 50 original counties. The fully adjusted RR was null in the western and eastern portions of the United States, including in areas with somewhat higher PM2.5 levels, particularly 5 Ohio Valley states and California. Conclusion: No significant relationship between PM2.5 and total mortality in the CPS II cohort was found when the best available PM2.5 data were used. The original 1995 analysis found a positive relationship by selective use of CPS II and PM2.5 data. This independent analysis of underlying data raises serious doubts about the CPS II epidemiologic evidence supporting the PM2.5 NAAQS. These findings provide strong justification for further independent analysis of the CPS II data. PMID:28473741

The evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score, poisoning severity score, sequential organ failure assessment score combine with lactate to assess the prognosis of the patients with acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning.

PubMed

Yuan, Shaoxin; Gao, Yusong; Ji, Wenqing; Song, Junshuai; Mei, Xue

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, poisoning severity score (PSS) as well as sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score combining with lactate (Lac) to predict mortality in the Emergency Department (ED) patients who were poisoned with organophosphate.A retrospective review of 59 stands-compliant patients was carried out. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed based on the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score with or without Lac, respectively, and the areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were determined to assess predictive value. According to SOFA-Lac (a combination of SOFA and Lac) classification standard, acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning (AOPP) patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. Then mortality rates were compared between risk levels.Between survivors and non-survivors, there were significant differences in the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score, and Lac (all P < .05). The AUCs of the APACHE II score, PSS, and SOFA score were 0.876, 0.811, and 0.837, respectively. However, after combining with Lac, the AUCs were 0.922, 0.878, and 0.956, respectively. According to SOFA-Lac, the mortality of high-risk group was significantly higher than low-risk group (P < .05) and the patients of the non-survival group were all at high risk.These data suggest the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score can all predict the prognosis of AOPP patients. For its simplicity and objectivity, the SOFA score is a superior predictor. Lac significantly improved the predictive abilities of the 3 scoring systems, especially for the SOFA score. The SOFA-Lac system effectively distinguished the high-risk group from the low-risk group. Therefore, the SOFA-Lac system is significantly better at predicting mortality in AOPP patients.

Climate change mitigation and health effects of varied dietary patterns in real-life settings throughout North America.

PubMed

Soret, Samuel; Mejia, Alfredo; Batech, Michael; Jaceldo-Siegl, Karen; Harwatt, Helen; Sabaté, Joan

2014-07-01

Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are a major consequence of our dietary choices. Assessments of plant-based compared with meat-based diets are emerging at the intersection of public health, environment, and nutrition. The objective was to compare the GHGEs associated with dietary patterns consumed in a large population across North America and to independently assess mortality according to dietary patterns in the same population. Data from the Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2) were used to characterize the differential environmental and health impacts of the following 3 dietary patterns, which varied in the quantity of animal and plant foods: vegetarian, semivegetarian, and nonvegetarian. The GHGE intensities of 210 foods were calculated through life-cycle assessments and by using published data. The all-cause mortality rates and all-cause mortality HRs for the AHS-2 subjects were adjusted for a range of lifestyle and sociodemographic factors and estimated according to dietary pattern. With the use of the nonvegetarian diet as a reference, the mean reductions in GHGEs for semivegetarian and vegetarian diets were 22% and 29%, respectively. The mortality rates for nonvegetarians, semivegetarians, and vegetarians were 6.66, 5.53, and 5.56 deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively. The differences were significant. Compared with nonvegetarians, mortality HRs were lower for semivegetarians (0.86) and vegetarians (0.91). Moderate differences in the caloric intake of meat products provided nontrivial reductions in GHGEs and improved health outcomes, as shown through the mortality analyses. However, this does not mean that diets lower in GHGEs are healthy. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Cardiogenic shock in intensive care units: evolution of prevalence, patient profile, management and outcomes, 1997-2012.

PubMed

Puymirat, Etienne; Fagon, Jean Yves; Aegerter, Philippe; Diehl, Jean Luc; Monnier, Alexandra; Hauw-Berlemont, Caroline; Boissier, Florence; Chatellier, Gilles; Guidet, Bertrand; Danchin, Nicolas; Aissaoui, Nadia

2017-02-01

To address the paucity of data on the characteristics, outcome and temporal trends in mortality of cardiogenic shock (CS) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) we examined key features, variations in mortality from CS, and predictors of death in ICU patients over the past 15 years. From the 1997-2012 database of the Collège des Utilisateurs de Bases de données en Réanimation (CUB-Réa) that prospectively collects data from ICUs in the greater Paris area, we determined temporal trends in the incidence of CS, patient outcomes [Crude and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS)-II Standardized Mortality] and predictors of in-ICU mortality. Of the 316 905 ICU admissions, 19 416 (6.1%) exhibited CS, with incidence increasing from 4.1% to 7.7% (P < 0.001). Over time, the age of admitted patients decreased by 2.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI), -2.0 to -3.4] and SAPS-II increased by 5.8% (95% CI 4.8-6.8) from 58.7 ± 25.3 to 64.5 ± 23.3 (P < 0.001). Crude in-ICU mortality declined from 50% to 45% (-5.6%; 95% CI -7.7 to -3.5) as SAPS-II Standardized ICU mortality rates decreased from 56.5% to 44.2% (P < 0.001). A more recent time-period was an independent correlate of decreased mortality in multivariate analyses. The decrease in mortality rate was more marked in patients with decompensated heart failure, cardiac arrest, or acute myocardial infarction. Patients with CS represent a greater proportion of patients admitted to ICUs over the past 15 years, having become younger but more critically ill. Although their mortality has decreased, suggesting improved overall patient management, it remains particularly high, warranting further research specifically focused on this population. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Patterns, trends and sex differences in HIV/AIDS reported mortality in Latin American countries: 1996-2007

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background International cohort studies have shown that antiretroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival of HIV-infected individuals. National population based studies of HIV mortality exist in industrialized settings but few have been presented from developing countries. Our objective was to investigate on a population basis, the regional situation regarding HIV mortality and trends in Latin America (LA) in the context of adoption of public ART policies and gender differences. Methods Cause of death data from vital statistics registries from 1996 to 2007 with "good" or "average" quality of mortality data were examined. Standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression models by country were developed and differences among countries assessed to identify patterns of HIV mortality over time occurring in Latin America. Results Standardized HIV mortality following the adoption of public ART policies was highest in Panama and El Salvador and lowest in Chile. During the study period, three overall patterns were identified in HIV mortality trends- following the adoption of the free ART public policies; a remarkable decrement, a remarkable increment and a slight increment. HIV mortality was consistently higher in males compared to females. Mean age of death attributable to HIV increased in the majority of countries over the study period. Conclusions Vital statistics registries provide valuable information on HIV mortality in LA. While the introduction of national policies for free ART provision has coincided with declines in population-level HIV mortality and increasing age of death in some countries, in others HIV mortality has increased. Barriers to effective ART implementation and uptake in the context of free ART public provision policies should be further investigated. PMID:21801402

Evolution of complex life cycles in trophically transmitted helminths. II. How do life-history stages adapt to their hosts?

PubMed

Parker, G A; Ball, M A; Chubb, J C

2015-02-01

We review how trophically transmitted helminths adapt to the special problems associated with successive hosts in complex cycles. In intermediate hosts, larvae typically show growth arrest at larval maturity (GALM). Theoretical models indicate that optimization of size at GALM requires larval mortality rate to increase with time between infection and GALM: low larval growth or paratenicity (no growth) arises from unfavourable growth and mortality rates in the intermediate host and low transmission rates to the definitive host. Reverse conditions favour high GALM size or continuous growth. Some support is found for these predictions. Intermediate host manipulation involves predation suppression (which decreases host vulnerability before the larva can establish in its next host) and predation enhancement (which increases host vulnerability after the larva can establish in its next host). Switches between suppression and enhancement suggest adaptive manipulation. Manipulation conflicts can occur between larvae of different ages/species a host individual. Larvae must usually develop to GALM before becoming infective to the next host, possibly due to trade-offs, e.g. between growth/survival in the present host and infection ability for the next host. In definitive hosts, if mortality rate is constant, optimal growth before switching to reproduction is set by the growth/morality rate ratio. Rarely, no growth occurs in definitive hosts, predicted (with empirical support) when larval size on infection exceeds growth/mortality rate. Tissue migration patterns and residence sites may be explained by variations in growth/mortality rates between host gut and soma, migration costs and benefits of releasing eggs in the gut. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

How the Effects of Aging and Stresses of Life Are Integrated in Mortality Rates: Insights for Genetic Studies of Human Health and Longevity

PubMed Central

Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Arbeeva, Liubov S.; Wu, Deqing; Akushevich, Igor; Kovtun, Mikhail; Yashkin, Arseniy; Kulminski, Alexander; Culminskaya, Irina; Stallard, Eric; Li, Miaozhu; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.

2015-01-01

Background Increasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a major cause of age related health declines then postponing aging could be an efficient strategy for improving the health of the elderly. Implementing this strategy requires a better understanding of genetic and non-genetic connections among aging, health, and longevity. Data and methods We review progress and problems in research areas whose development may contribute to analyses of such connections. These include genetic studies of human aging and longevity, the heterogeneity of populations with respect to their susceptibility to disease and death, forces that shape age patterns of human mortality, secular trends in mortality decline, and integrative mortality modeling using longitudinal data. Results The dynamic involvement of genetic factors in (i) morbidity/mortality risks, (ii) responses to stresses of life, (iii) multi-morbidities of many elderly individuals, (iv) trade-offs for diseases, (v) genetic heterogeneity, and (vi) other relevant aging-related health declines, underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to analyze the genetic connections for all of the above aspects of aging-related changes. Conclusion The dynamic relationships among aging, health, and longevity traits would be better understood if one linked several research fields within one conceptual framework that allowed for efficient analyses of available longitudinal data using the wealth of available knowledge about aging, health, and longevity already accumulated in the research field. PMID:26280653

Interpopulation Comparison of Sex-Biased Mortality and Sexual Size Dimorphism in Sea-Run Masu Salmon, Oncorhynchus masou.

PubMed

Tamate, Tsuyoshi

2015-08-01

Evolutionary ecologists often expect that natural and sexual selection result in systematic co-occurrence patterns of sex-biased mortality and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) within animal species. However, whether such patterns actually occur in wild animals is poorly examined. The following expectation, the larger sex suffers higher mortality, was primarily tested here for apparently native sea-run masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou) in three populations in Hokkaido, Japan. Field surveys on sex ratios, body sizes, and ages of smolts and returning adults revealed that two of the three populations exhibited an expected pattern, a female-biased marine mortality and SSD, but one population demonstrated an unexpected co-occurrence of male-biased marine mortality and female-biased SSD. These female-biased SSDs were attributed to faster marine growth of females because of no sex difference in smolt body size. It has been previously suggested that breeding selection favoring large size generally act more strongly in females than in males in Japanese anadromous masu, as there is a weak sexual selection on adult males but universally intensive natural selection on adult females. Thus, this hypothesis explains female-biased SSDs well in all study populations. Interpopulation variation in sex-biased mortality found here might result from differences in marine predation and/or fishing pressures, given that selection driving female-biased SSD makes females forage more aggressively than males during the marine phase. Taken together, these results raise the possibility that evolutionary forces have shaped adaptive sex-specific foraging strategies under relationships between growth and mortality, resulting in co-occurrence patterns of sex-biased mortality and SSD within animal species.

The pattern of choosing dialysis modality and related mortality outcomes in Korea: a national population-based study

PubMed Central

Kim, Hyung Jong; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Park, Hyeong-Cheon; Kang, Shin-Wook; Kim, Kyoung Hoon; Ryu, Dong-Ryeol; Kim, Hyunwook

2017-01-01

Background/Aims Since comorbidities are major determinants of modality choice, and also interact with dialysis modality on mortality outcomes, we examined the pattern of modality choice according to comorbidities and then evaluated how such choices affected mortality in incident dialysis patients. Methods We analyzed 32,280 incident dialysis patients in Korea. Patterns in initial dialysis choice were assessed by multivariate logistic regression analyses. Multivariate Poisson regression analyses were performed to evaluate the effects of interactions between comorbidities and dialysis modality on mortality and to quantify these interactions using the synergy factor. Results Prior histories of myocardial infarction (p = 0.031), diabetes (p = 0.001), and congestive heart failure (p = 0.003) were independent factors favoring the initiation with peritoneal dialysis (PD), but were associated with increased mortality with PD. In contrast, a history of cerebrovascular disease and 1-year increase in age favored initiation with hemodialysis (HD) and were related to a survival benefit with HD (p < 0.001, both). While favoring initiation with HD, having Medical Aid (p = 0.001) and male gender (p = 0.047) were related to increased mortality with HD. Furthermore, although the severity of comorbidities did not inf luence dialysis modality choice, mortality in incident PD patients was significantly higher compared to that in HD patients as the severity of comorbidities increased (p for trend < 0.001). Conclusions Some comorbidities exerted independent effects on initial choice of dialysis modality, but this choice did not always lead to the best results. Further analyses of the pattern of choosing dialysis modality according to baseline comorbid conditions and related consequent mortality outcomes are needed. PMID:28651309

The effect of resident duty hour restriction on trauma center outcomes in teaching hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Helling, Thomas S; Kaswan, Sumesh; Boccardo, Justin; Bost, James E

2010-09-01

Resident duty hour restriction was instituted to improve patient safety, but actual impact on patient care is unclear. We sought to determine the effect of duty hour restriction on trauma outcomes in Level I trauma centers (TCs; surgery residency programs) versus Level II TCs (those with no surgery residency programs) within the state of Pennsylvania, using noninferiority as our hypothesis testing. Outcomes (mortality and length of stay [LOS]) were compared in Level II TCs without surgery residencies (n = 7) with Level I TCs (with surgery residencies; n = 14) PRE80 (2001-2003) and POST80 (2004-2007). The subcategories of critically injured patients, Injury Severity Score (ISS) >15, ISS >25, Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) ≤ 50, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) head/chest/abdomen score >3, age >65 years, mechanism, and shock, functioned as outcome predictors. There was a decrease in mortality overall PRE80 to POST80 for Level I and II TCs. There was a decrease in mortality in Level I TCs POST80 in ISS >15 (16.5% vs. 14.8%, p = 0.0001), AIS (head) score >3 (20.8% vs. 17.8%, p < 0.0001), age >65 years (12.2% vs. 10.7%, p = 0.0013), and blunt mechanism (5.2% vs. 4.6%, p = 0.0004). LOS was reduced in ISS >15, AIS (head) score >3, age >65 years, and penetrating mechanism in Level I TCs POST80. A similar but more profound decrease was also seen in Level II TCs PRE80 and POST80 (ISS >15, 25; AIS (head) score; shock; blunt mechanism; and TRISS ≤ 50). Testing for inhomogeneity identified less-severely injured patients at Level II TCs POST80 compared with Level I TCs in certain subcategories (ISS >15, 25; AIS (head) score; shock; blunt mechanism; and TRISS ≤ 50) regarding mortality and LOS (TRISS >50%). Decreases in mortality and LOS during the study periods were likely not related to resident work hour restriction but rather to overall improvement in outcomes seen at Level II (no residents) and Level I (residents) TCs. Resident work hour restrictions had no discernible effect on patient care (noninferiority).

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. Material and methods We searched PubMed for the mesh terms “perforated peptic ulcer”, “scoring systems”, “risk factors”, ”outcome prediction”, “mortality”, ”morbidity” and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Results A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. Conclusion While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use. PMID:23574922

Anisotropic patterns of liver cancer prevalence in Guangxi in Southwest China: is local climate a contributing factor?

PubMed

Deng, Wei; Long, Long; Tang, Xian-Yan; Huang, Tian-Ren; Li, Ji-Lin; Rong, Min-Hua; Li, Ke-Zhi; Liu, Hai-Zhou

2015-01-01

Geographic information system (GIS) technology has useful applications for epidemiology, enabling the detection of spatial patterns of disease dispersion and locating geographic areas at increased risk. In this study, we applied GIS technology to characterize the spatial pattern of mortality due to liver cancer in the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang in southwest China. A database with liver cancer mortality data for 1971-1973, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005, including geographic locations and climate conditions, was constructed, and the appropriate associations were investigated. It was found that the regions with the highest mortality rates were central Guangxi with Guigang City at the center, and southwest Guangxi centered in Fusui County. Regions with the lowest mortality rates were eastern Guangxi with Pingnan County at the center, and northern Guangxi centered in Sanjiang and Rongshui counties. Regarding climate conditions, in the 1990s the mortality rate of liver cancer positively correlated with average temperature and average minimum temperature, and negatively correlated with average precipitation. In 2004 through 2005, mortality due to liver cancer positively correlated with the average minimum temperature. Regions of high mortality had lower average humidity and higher average barometric pressure than did regions of low mortality. Our results provide information to benefit development of a regional liver cancer prevention program in Guangxi, and provide important information and a reference for exploring causes of liver cancer.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Impact of Time to Appropriate Therapy on Mortality in Patients with Vancomycin-Intermediate Staphylococcus aureus Infection

PubMed Central

Warren, David K.; Kollef, Marin H.

2016-01-01

Despite the increasing incidence of vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (VISA) infections, few studies have examined the impact of delay in receipt of appropriate antimicrobial therapy on outcomes in VISA patients. We examined the effects of timing of appropriate antimicrobial therapy in a cohort of patients with sterile-site methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and VISA infections. In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we identified all patients with MRSA or VISA sterile-site infections from June 2009 to February 2015. Clinical outcomes were compared according to MRSA/VISA classification, demographics, comorbidities, and antimicrobial treatment. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was modeled with Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (MVLRA) was used to determine odds ratios for mortality. We identified 354 patients with MRSA (n = 267) or VISA (n = 87) sterile-site infection. Fifty-five patients (15.5%) were nonsurvivors. Factors associated with mortality in MVLRA included pneumonia, unknown source of infection, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, solid-organ malignancy, and admission from skilled care facilities. Time to appropriate antimicrobial therapy was not significantly associated with outcome. Presence of a VISA infection compared to that of a non-VISA S. aureus infection did not result in excess mortality. Linezolid use was a risk for mortality in patients with APACHE II scores of ≥14. Our results suggest that empirical vancomycin use in patients with VISA infections does not result in excess mortality. Future studies should (i) include larger numbers of patients with VISA infections to confirm the findings presented here and (ii) determine the optimal antibiotic therapy for critically ill patients with MRSA and VISA infections. PMID:27401565

Health effects of gasoline exposure. II. Mortality patterns of distribution workers in the United States.

PubMed Central

Wong, O; Harris, F; Smith, T J

1993-01-01

In this study, the cohort consisted of 18,135 distribution employees with potential exposure to gasoline for at least one year at land-based terminals (n = 9,026) or on marine vessels (n = 9,109) between 1946 and 1985. The primary objective of the study was to determine the relationship, if any, between exposure to gasoline and mortality from kidney cancer or leukemia. In addition, other causes of death of secondary interest included multiple myeloma and heart diseases. The mortality of the cohort was observed through June 30, 1989. The results of this study indicated that there was no increased mortality from either kidney cancer or leukemia among marketing and marine distribution employees who were exposed to gasoline in the petroleum industry when compared to the general population. Among the land-based terminal employees, the kidney cancer standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 65.4 (12 deaths) and leukemia SMR was 89.1 (27 deaths). For the marine cohort, the SMRs were 83.7 for kidney cancer (12 deaths) and 70.0 for leukemia (16 deaths), respectively. More importantly, based on internal comparisons, there was no association between mortality from kidney cancer or leukemia and various indices of gasoline exposure. In particular, neither duration of employment, duration of exposure, age at first exposure, year of first of exposure, job category, cumulative exposure, frequency of peak exposures, nor average intensity of exposure had any effect on kidney cancer or leukemia mortality. For acute myeloid leukemia, a nonsignificant mortality increase was found in land-based terminal employees (SMR = 150.5, 13 deaths), but no trend was detected when the data were analyzed by various gasoline exposure indices. This nonsignificant excess was limited to land-based terminal employees hired before 1948. On the other hand, a deficit of mortality from acute myeloid leukemia was observed among marine employees (SMR = 74.2, 5 deaths). For the two cohorts combined, SMR for acute myeloid leukemia was 117.1 based on 18 deaths. We did not find any relationship in our study between gasoline exposure and mortality from multiple myeloma or heart diseases. In general, we did not find any significantly increased mortality, either overall or from specific causes, associated with gasoline exposure in this study of marketing and marine distribution employees. PMID:8020450

Combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, early lactate area, and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide levels as a predictor of mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Li, Zhong; Yin, Mei; Chen, Xiao-Mei; Ding, Shi-Fang; Li, Chen; Zhai, Qian; Li, Yuan; Liu, Han; Wu, Da-Wei

2015-04-01

Given the high mortality rates in elderly patients with septic shock, the early recognition of patients at greatest risk of death is crucial for the implementation of early intervention strategies. Serum lactate and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels are often elevated in elderly patients with septic shock and are therefore important biomarkers of metabolic and cardiac dysfunction. We hypothesized that a risk stratification system that incorporates the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and lactate and NT-proBNP biomarkers would better predict mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock than the APACHE II score alone. A single-center prospective study was conducted from January 2012 to December 2013 in a 30-bed intensive care unit of a triservice hospital. The lactate area score was defined as the sum of the area under the curve of serial lactate levels measured during the 24 hours following admission divided by 24. The NT-proBNP score was assigned based on NT-proBNP levels measured at admission. The combined score was calculated by adding the lactate area and NT-proBNP scores to the APACHE II score. Multivariate logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate which variables and scoring systems served as the best predictors of mortality in elderly septic patients. A total of 115 patients with septic shock were included in the study. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 67.0%. When compared to survivors, nonsurvivors had significantly higher lactate area scores, NT-proBNP scores, APACHE II scores, and combined scores. In the multivariate regression model, the combined score, lactate area score, and mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors associated with death. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the combined score had significantly greater predictive power when compared to the APACHE II score or the NT-proBNP score (P < .05). A combined score that incorporates the APACHE II score with early lactate area and NT-proBNP levels is a useful method for risk stratification in geriatric patients with septic shock. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Level, trends and differentials of infant and child mortality in Yemen.

PubMed

Suchindran, C M; Adlakha, A L

1985-12-01

This study investigates the levels, trends and differentials of infant and child mortality in Yemen. The data used are from the 1979 Yemen Fertility Survey, part of the World Fertility Survey. Mortality rates for 4 age intervals of life are presented: neonatal, postnatal, infant and child. For the birth cohort immediately preceding the survey (1976 1978), the level of infant mortality was estimated as 157/1000 for both sexes and 163 for males and 145 for females. For the birth cohort 1971 1975, the level of child mortality was 95/1000 for both sexes, 78 for males and 112 for females. Analysis of time trends in mortality for the years from 1961 to 1978 indicated substantial declines in neonatal, postneonatal, infant and child mortality. Neonatal mortality declined by almost 33%, and postneonatal mortality by almost 43%. During 1961-1975, child mortality declined by about 39%. A persistent pattern of mortality differentials by sex was found in the data. For all birth cohorts between 1961 and 1978, male neonatal and postneonatal mortality exceeded female neonatal mortality, but male childhood mortality was less than corresponding female mortality. This pattern suggests preferential care and treatment of male offspring. Estimates of infant and child mortality showed considerable regional differences. The eastern region experienced considerably lower risk of infant and childhood mortality than other regions. Breastfeeders aged 1-5 experienced lower mortality rates than nonbreastfeeders. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model show the net effect of demographic and socioeconomic factors on mortality.

Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care.

PubMed

Reinikainen, M; Uusaro, A; Ruokonen, E; Niskanen, M

2006-07-01

In the general population, mortality from acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and respiratory causes is increased in winter. The winter climate in Finland is harsh. The aim of this study was to find out whether there are seasonal variations in mortality rates in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs). We analysed data on 31,040 patients treated in 18 Finnish ICUs. We measured severity of illness with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and intensity of care with therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) scores. We assessed mortality rates in different months and seasons and used logistic regression analysis to test the independent effect of various seasons on hospital mortality. We defined 'winter' as the period from December to February, inclusive. The crude hospital mortality rate was 17.9% in winter and 16.4% in non-winter, P = 0.003. Even after adjustment for case mix, winter season was an independent risk factor for increased hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.22, P = 0.005). In particular, the risk of respiratory failure was increased in winter. Crude hospital mortality was increased during the main holiday season in July. However, the severity of illness-adjusted risk of death was not higher in July than in other months. An increase in the mean daily TISS score was an independent predictor of increased hospital mortality. Severity of illness-adjusted hospital mortality for Finnish ICU patients is higher in winter than in other seasons.

Troponin rise in hospitalized patients with nonacute coronary syndrome: retrospective assessment of outcomes and predictors.

PubMed

Dhesi, Sumandeep; Shanks, Miriam; Tymchak, Wayne J

2015-03-01

Cardiac troponin is elevated in several clinical settings apart from thrombotic acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and is associated with increased adverse events. It is not clear whether troponin elevation in type II myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with increased cardiovascular events. Our objectives were to identify the cause of mortality in type II MI and to attempt to establish the threshold range of cardiac troponin-I (cTnI) elevation as well as clinical factors associated with adverse outcomes in type II MI. This retrospective cohort study included 245 patients presenting with a noncardiac primary diagnosis associated with cTnI elevation at a single centre from January 2003 to December 2011. Primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes included subsequent stroke, ACS, and heart failure (HF). At 1 year, ACS occurred in 13 patients (5.3%), stroke was seen in 10 (4.1%) patients, and HF occurred in 19 (7.8%) patients. Overall 1-year mortality included 102 events (41.6%), with 10 cardiovascular deaths (9.8%), 65 noncardiovascular deaths (63.7%), and 27 (26.5%) deaths from unknown causes. In multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with increased overall 1-year mortality included cTnI elevation ≥ 4.63 μg/L (odds ratio [OR], 3.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55-7.34; P = 0.002), age ≥ 70 years (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.40-4.29; P = 0.002), and estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73m(2) (OR, 2.40; 95% CI 1.31-4.40; P = 0.005). Unlike the published literature, our study includes a variety of both operative and nonoperative clinical settings associated with troponin elevation. We illustrate that although overall mortality is high after type II MI, the majority of mortality is caused by noncardiovascular events. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma granulocyte colony-stimulating factor and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor levels in critical illness including sepsis and septic shock: relation to disease severity, multiple organ dysfunction, and mortality.

PubMed

Presneill, J J; Waring, P M; Layton, J E; Maher, D W; Cebon, J; Harley, N S; Wilson, J W; Cade, J F

2000-07-01

To define the circulating levels of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) during critical illness and to determine their relationship to the severity of illness as measured by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, the development of multiple organ dysfunction, or mortality. Prospective cohort study. University hospital intensive care unit. A total of 82 critically ill adult patients in four clinically defined groups, namely septic shock (n = 29), sepsis without shock (n = 17), shock without sepsis (n = 22), and nonseptic, nonshock controls (n = 14). None. During day 1 of septic shock, peak plasma levels of G-CSF, interleukin (IL)-6, and leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF), but not GM-CSF, were greater than in sepsis or shock alone (p < .001), and were correlated among themselves (rs = 0.44-0.77; p < .02) and with the APACHE II score (rs = 0.25-0.40; p = .03 to .18). G-CSF, IL-6, and UF, and sepsis, shock, septic shock, and APACHE II scores were strongly associated with organ dysfunction or 5-day mortality by univariate analysis. However, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only septic shock remained significantly associated with organ dysfunction and only APACHE II scores and shock with 5-day mortality. Similarly, peak G-CSF, IL-6, and LIF were poorly predictive of 30-day mortality. Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-6, and LIF are greatly elevated in critical illness, including septic shock, and are correlated with one another and with the severity of illness. However, they are not independently predictive of mortality, or the development of multiple organ dysfunction. GM-CSF was rarely elevated, suggesting different roles for G-CSF and GM-CSF in human septic shock.

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-11-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller variations in mortality. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Preoperative risk assessment with the ASA classification. A prospective study of morbidity and mortality in various ASA classes in 2,937 patients in general surgery].

PubMed

Menke, H; John, K D; Klein, A; Lorenz, W; Junginger, T

1992-12-01

The value of ASA classification in assessment of perioperative risk, i.e. especially postoperative morbidity, was analyzed prospectively using the data of 2937 patients. The analysis took into account the criteria validity, reliability, and sensitivity. The incidence of post-operative morbidity after elective surgery rose from 3.9% in ASA class I to 36% in ASA class IV. Mortality was 0.6% in ASA class II, whereas 9.3% died in ASA class IV. Morbidity, mortality respectively, after emergency surgery was 10.2% in ASA class II compared to 69% in class IV, mortality 1.4% compared to 21.5%. Differences between the ASA classes were confirmed (p-value < 0.05) considering separate kinds of complications and different periods. Furthermore, ASA classification was a valuable reference to length of stay and severity of necessary therapy at the ICU.

A case-control study relating railroad worker mortality to diesel exhaust exposure using a threshold regression model.

PubMed

Lee, Mei-Ling Ting; Whitmore, G A; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Garshick, Eric

2009-01-01

A case-control study of lung cancer mortality in U.S. railroad workers in jobs with and without diesel exhaust exposure is reanalyzed using a new threshold regression methodology. The study included 1256 workers who died of lung cancer and 2385 controls who died primarily of circulatory system diseases. Diesel exhaust exposure was assessed using railroad job history from the US Railroad Retirement Board and an industrial hygiene survey. Smoking habits were available from next-of-kin and potential asbestos exposure was assessed by job history review. The new analysis reassesses lung cancer mortality and examines circulatory system disease mortality. Jobs with regular exposure to diesel exhaust had a survival pattern characterized by an initial delay in mortality, followed by a rapid deterioration of health prior to death. The pattern is seen in subjects dying of lung cancer, circulatory system diseases, and other causes. The unique pattern is illustrated using a new type of Kaplan-Meier survival plot in which the time scale represents a measure of disease progression rather than calendar time. The disease progression scale accounts for a healthy-worker effect when describing the effects of cumulative exposures on mortality.

Human Development Inequality Index and Cancer Pattern: a Global Distributive Study.

PubMed

Rezaeian, Shahab; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Sanjari Moghaddam, Ali; Ayubi, Erfan

2016-01-01

This study aimed to quantify associations of the human development inequality (HDI) index with incidence, mortality, and mortality to incidence ratios for eight common cancers among different countries. In this ecological study, data about incidence and mortality rates of cancers was obtained from the Global Cancer Project for 169 countries. HDI indices for the same countries was obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database. The concentration index was defined as the covariance between cumulative percentage of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratio) and the cumulative percentage of economic indicators (country economic rank). Results indicated that incidences of cancers of liver, cervix and esophagus were mainly concentrated in countries with a low HDI index while cancers of lung, breast, colorectum, prostate and stomach were concentrated mainly in countries with a high HDI index. The same pattern was observed for mortality from cancer except for prostate cancer that was more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. Higher MIRs for all cancers were more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. It was concluded that patterns of cancer occurrence correlate with care disparities at the country level.

Mortality in adult immigrants in the 2000s in Belgium: a test of the 'healthy-migrant' and the 'migration-as-rapid-health-transition' hypotheses.

PubMed

Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Willaert, Didier; De Grande, Hannelore; Simoens, Steven; Vanroelen, Christophe

2015-12-01

Firstly, to map out and compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality patterns by migrant background in Belgium; and secondly, to probe into explanations for the observed patterns, more specifically into the healthy-migrant, acculturation and the migration-as-rapid-health-transition theories. Data comprise individually linked Belgian census-mortality follow-up data for the period 2001-2011. All official inhabitants aged 25-54 at time of the census were included. To delve into the different explanations, differences in all-cause and chronic- and infectious-disease mortality were estimated using Poisson regression models, adjusted for age, socioeconomic position and urbanicity. First-generation immigrants have lower all-cause and chronic-disease mortality than the host population. This mortality advantage wears off with length of stay and is more marked among non-Western than Western first-generation immigrants. For example, Western and non-Western male immigrants residing 10 years or more in Belgium have a mortality rate ratio for cardiovascular disease of 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.78) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.53-0.66), respectively (vs host population). The pattern of infectious-disease mortality in migrants is slightly different, with rather high mortality rates in first-generation sub-Saharan Africans and rather low rates in all other immigrant groups. As for second-generation immigrants, the picture is gloomier, with a mortality disadvantage that disappears after control for socioeconomic position. Findings are largely consistent with the healthy-migrant, acculturation and the migration-as-rapid-health-transition theories. The convergence of the mortality profile of second-generation immigrants towards that of the host population with similar socioeconomic position indicates the need for policies simultaneously addressing different areas of deprivation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

PubMed Central

Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in septic patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-08-01

To evaluate the prognostic and risk-stratified ability of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED). From August to November 2012, 295 consecutive septic patients were enrolled. Circulating H-FABP was measured. The predictive value of H-FABP for 28-day mortality, organ dysfunction on ED arrival, and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression and was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The 28-day mortality, APACHE II, MEDS, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were much higher in H-FABP-positive patients. The incidence of organ dysfunction at ED arrival and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was higher in H-FABP-positive patients. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for H-FABP predicting 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction was 0.784 and 0.755, respectively. Combination of H-FABP and MEDS improved the performance of MEDS in predicting organ dysfunction, and the difference of AUC was statistically significant (P<.05). The combinations of H-FABP and MEDS or H-FABP and APACHE II also improved the prognostic value of MEDS and APACHE II, but the areas under the curve were not statistically different. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was helpful for prognosis and risk stratification of septic patients in the ED. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographic Distribution of Trauma Centers and Injury Related Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Brown, Joshua B.; Rosengart, Matthew R.; Billiar, Timothy R.; Peitzman, Andrew B.; Sperry, Jason L.

2015-01-01

Background Regionalized trauma care improves outcomes; however access to care is not uniform across the US. The objective was to evaluate whether geographic distribution of trauma centers correlates with injury mortality across state trauma systems. Methods Level I/II trauma centers in the contiguous US were mapped. State-level age-adjusted injury fatality rates/100,000people were obtained and evaluated for spatial autocorrelation. Nearest neighbor ratios (NNR) were generated for each state. A NNR<1 indicates clustering, while NNR>1 indicates dispersion. NNR were tested for difference from random geographic distribution. Fatality rates and NNR were examined for correlation. Fatality rates were compared between states with trauma center clustering versus dispersion. Trauma center distribution and population density were evaluated. Spatial-lag regression determined the association between fatality rate and NNR, controlling for state-level demographics, population density, injury severity, trauma system resources, and socioeconomic factors. Results Fatality rates were spatially autocorrelated (Moran's I=0.35, p<0.01). Nine states had a clustered pattern (median NNR 0.55, IQR 0.48–0.60), 22 had a dispersed pattern (median NNR 2.00, IQR 1.68–3.99), and 10 had a random pattern (median NNR 0.90, IQR 0.85–1.00) of trauma center distribution. Fatality rate and NNR were correlated (ρ=0.34, p=0.03). Clustered states had a lower median injury fatality rate compared to dispersed states (56.9 [IQR 46.5–58.9] versus 64.9 [IQR 52.5–77.1], p=0.04). Dispersed compared to clustered states had more counties without a trauma center that had higher population density than counties with a trauma center (5.7% versus 1.2%, p<0.01). Spatial-lag regression demonstrated fatality rates increased 0.02/100,000persons for each unit increase in NNR (p<0.01). Conclusions Geographic distribution of trauma centers correlates with injury mortality, with more clustered state trauma centers associated with lower fatality rates. This may be a result of access relative to population density. These results may have implications for trauma system planning and requires further study to investigate underlying mechanisms PMID:26517780

Surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis: associations between morbidity, mortality and costs.

PubMed

Grubitzsch, Herko; Christ, Torsten; Melzer, Christoph; Kastrup, Marc; Treskatsch, Sascha; Konertz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

Surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality as well as with increased resource utilization and costs. For risk and cost reduction, an understanding of contributing factors and interrelations is essential. Out of 1080 heart valve procedures performed between January 2010 and December 2012, 41 patients underwent surgery for PVE. Complete economic data were available for 30 of them (study cohort). The patients' mean age was 64 ± 12 years (range 37-79 years), and 73% were men. The clinical course was reviewed and morbidity, mortality and costs as well as associations between them were analysed. The cost matrix for each individual patient was obtained from the Institute for the Hospital Remuneration System (InEK GmbH, Germany). The median follow-up was 2.6 years [interquartile range (IQR) 3.7 years; 100% complete]. Preoperative status was critical (EuroSCORE II >20%) in 43% of patients. Staphylococci were the most common infecting micro-organisms (27%). The operative mortality rate (≤30 days) was 17%. At 1 year, the overall survival rate was 71 ± 9%. At least one disease- or surgery-related complication affected 21 patients (early morbidity 70%), >1 complication affected 12 patients (40%). There was neither a recurrence of endocarditis, nor was a reoperation required. The mean total hospital costs were 42.6 ± 37.4 Thousand Euro (T€), median 25.7 T€, IQR 28.4 T€ and >100 T€ in 10% of cases. Intensive care unit/intermediate care (ICU/IMC) and operation accounted for 40.4 ± 18.6 and 25.7 ± 12.1% of costs, respectively. There was a significant correlation (Pearson's sample correlation coefficient) between total costs and duration of hospital stay (r = 0.83, P < 0.001) and between ICU/IMC costs and duration of ICU/IMC stay (r = 0.97, P < 0.001). The median daily hospital costs were 1.8 T€/day, but >2.4 T€/day in 25% of patients (upper quartile). The following pattern of associations was identified (P < 0.05). Early mortality was related to preoperative morbidity and postoperative renal failure. Early morbidity was associated with preoperative morbidity and urgency. Total costs were mainly explained by preoperative morbidity, postoperative morbidity and urgency. High EuroSCORE II, complex surgery, need for mechanical circulatory support as well as postoperative mortality and morbidity increased daily costs. The timely diagnosis and treatment of these patients must be a priority, as preoperative morbidity is the major contributor towards mortality, morbidity and costs after surgery for PVE. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Mortality Rates Following Posterior C1-2 Fusion for Displaced Type II Odontoid Fractures in Octogenarians.

PubMed

Clark, Stephen; Nash, Alysa; Shasti, Mark; Brown, Luke; Jauregui, Julio J; Mistretta, Katherine; Koh, Eugene; Banagan, Kelley; Ludwig, Steven; Gelb, Daniel

2018-03-13

Retrospective cohort study OBJECTIVE.: To assess 30-day and one-year mortality rates as well as the most common complications associated with posterior C1-2 fusion in an octogenarian cohort. Treatment of unstable type II odontoid fractures in elderly patients can present challenges. Recent evidence indicates in patients older than 80 years, posterior C1-2 fusion results in improved survival as compared to other modes of treatment. Retrospective analysis of 43 consecutive patients (25 F and 18 M; mean age 84.3y, range 80-89y; mean Charlson Comorbidities Index 1.4, (range 1-6); mean BMI 24.8 ± 4.2 kg/m2, who underwent posterior C1-C2 fusion for management of unstable type II odontoid fracture by 4 fellowship trained spine surgeons at a single institution between January 2006-June 2016. Mean fracture displacement was 5.1 ± 3.6 mm and mean absolute value of angulation was 19.93 ± 12.93°. The most common complications were altered mental status (41.9%, n = 18), dysphagia (27.9%, n = 12) with 50% of those patients (6 of 12) requiring a feeding tube, and emergency reintubation (9.3%, n = 4). To the date of review completion, 25 of 43 patients expired (58.1%), median survival of 1.76 years from the date of surgery. Thirty-day and one-year mortality rates were 2.3% and 18.6%, respectively. Patients who developed dysphagia were 14.5 times more likely to have expired at 1 year; dysphagia was also found to be significantly associated with degree of displacement. Fracture displacement was found to be associated with increased odds for 1-year mortality when accounting for age and requirement of a feeding tube. Posterior C1-2 fusion results in acceptably low mortality rates in octogenarians with unstable type II odontoid fractures when compared to non-operative management mortality rates in current literature. Initial fracture displacement is associated with higher mortality rate in this patient population. 4.

Geographical variations in seasonal mortality across the United States: A bioclimatological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkstein, Adam

2008-10-01

Human mortality exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with deaths in winter far exceeding those in the summer. Surprisingly, this seasonal trend is evident in all major cities across the United States, seemingly independent of climate. While the pattern itself is clear, its magnitude varies considerably across space, and it is not known if there is regional homogeneity among cities. Additionally, the causal mechanisms relating to pattern variability are not clearly understood. The goal of this study is to conduct a comprehensive geographic analysis of seasonal mortality across the United States, to uncover systematic regional differences in such mortality, and to determine what role weather plays in impacting seasonal mortality rates. Unique seasonal mortality curves were created for 28 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the United States, and the amplitude and timing of mortality peaks were determined. In addition, seasonality was calculated for different demographic groups and causes of death. Meteorological factors were also evaluated as possible causal mechanisms. The findings here indicate that the seasonality of mortality exhibits strong spatial variation with the largest seasonal mortality amplitudes found in the southwestern United States and the smallest in the North, along with South Florida. In addition, there have been changes in the timing of seasonal mortality; the date of maximum mortality is occurring increasingly early in the year. Demographics also play an important role with women, Whites, and the elderly exhibiting the strongest seasonality in mortality. There is a strong connection between respiratory disease and other causes of death, implying a cause-effect relationship. Meteorology also plays an important role in seasonal mortality; variations in the frequency of certain air masses were associated with changes in the timing and amplitude of seasonal mortality. Finally, there were strong intra-regional similarities that exist among the examined cities, implying that environmental factors are more important than social factors in determining seasonal mortality response. This work begins to fill a large gap within the scientific literature concerning the causes, geographic variation, and meteorological influences on seasonal mortality. Additionally, these results will increase the forecasting capabilities of determining when and where winter mortality will reach unusually high levels.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia. To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). Method By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. Results After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Conclusion Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury. PMID:23351393

Comparative ecologic relationships of saturated fat, sucrose, food groups, and a Mediterranean food pattern score to 50-year coronary heart disease mortality rates among 16 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

PubMed

Kromhout, Daan; Menotti, Alessandro; Alberti-Fidanza, Adalberta; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Hollman, Peter; Kafatos, Anthony; Tolonen, Hanna; Adachi, Hisashi; Jacobs, David R

2018-05-17

We studied the ecologic relationships of food groups, macronutrients, eating patterns, and an a priori food pattern score (Mediterranean Adequacy Index: MAI) with long-term CHD mortality rates in the Seven Countries Study. Sixteen cohorts (12,763 men aged 40-59 years) were enrolled in the 1960s in seven countries (US, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Greece, former Yugoslavia: Croatia/Serbia, Japan). Dietary surveys were carried out at baseline and only in a subsample of each cohort. The average food consumption of each cohort was chemically analyzed for individual fatty acids and carbohydrates. Ecologic correlations of diet were computed across cohorts for 50-year CHD mortality rates; 97% of men had died in cohorts with 50-year follow-up. CHD death rates ranged 6.7-fold among cohorts. At baseline, hard fat was greatest in northern Europe, olive oil in Greece, meat in the US, sweet products in northern Europe and the US, and fish in Japan. The MAI was high in Mediterranean and Japanese cohorts. The 50-year CHD mortality rates of the cohorts were closely positively ecologically correlated (r = 0.68-0.92) with average consumption of hard fat, sweet products, animal foods, saturated fat, and sucrose, but not with naturally occurring sugars. Vegetable foods, starch, and the a priori pattern MAI were inversely correlated (r = -0.59 to -0.91) with CHD mortality rates. Long-term CHD mortality rates had statistically significant ecologic correlations with several aspects of diet consumed in the 1960s, the traditional Mediterranean and Japanese patterns being rich in vegetable foods, and low in sweet products and animal foods.

Dietary pattern and 20 year mortality in elderly men in Finland, Italy, and The Netherlands: longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed Central

Huijbregts, P.; Feskens, E.; Räsänen, L.; Fidanza, F.; Nissinen, A.; Menotti, A.; Kromhout, D.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of dietary pattern and mortality in international data. DESIGN: Cohort study with 20 years' follow up of mortality. SETTING: Five cohorts in Finland, the Netherlands, and Italy. SUBJECTS: Population based random sample of 3045 men aged 50-70 years in 1970. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Food intake was estimated using a cross check dietary history. In this dietary survey method, the usual food consumption pattern in the 6-12 months is estimated. A healthy diet indicator was calculated for the dietary pattern, using the World Health Organisation's guidelines for the prevention of chronic diseases. Vital status was verified after 20 years of follow up, and death rates were calculated. RESULTS: Dietary intake varied greatly in 1970 between the three countries. In Finland and the Netherlands the intake of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol was high and the intake of alcohol was low; in Italy the opposite was observed. In total 1796 men (59%) died during 20 years of follow up. The healthy diet indicator was inversely associated with mortality (P for trend < 0.05). After adjustment for age, smoking, and alcohol consumption, the relative risk in the group with the healthiest diet indicator compared with the group with the least healthy was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.98). Estimated relative risks were essentially similar within each country. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of men aged 50-70 is associated with a 20 year, all cause mortality in different cultures. The healthy diet indicator is useful in evaluating the relation of mortality to dietary patterns. PMID:9233319

[Mortality due to hypertensive diseases: evidence from the southern border of Mexico in the period 1998-2014].

PubMed

Rivera, José Luis Manzanares

2017-01-01

This article analyzes patterns of mortality due to hypertensive diseases in the southern border of Mexico, as well as the evolution of such mortality in the 1998-2014 period. The emphasis is directed at the causes "Essential (primary) hypertension" (I10X) and "Hypertensive heart disease with heart failure" (I110). Using data from the mortality records of the National Health Information System, two types of analyses were carried out: cross-sectional analysis and time trends. Over the 16 years included in the study, the age-adjusted mortality rates show a clear increase. The findings suggest that the higher presence of indigenous populations is a trait of importance in the determination of the mortality pattern, with the state of Yucatán a case of particular interest. In addition, it is the female population that which exhibits the greatest adverse impact.

Redo surgery risk in patients with cardiac prosthetic valve dysfunction

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Marek; Piestrzeniewicz, Katarzyna; Bielecka-Dąbrowa, Agata; Piechowiak, Monika; Jaszewski, Ryszard

2011-01-01

Introduction The aim of the study was to analyse the risk factors of early and late mortality in patients undergoing the first reoperation for prosthetic valve dysfunction. Material and methods A retrospective observational study was performed in 194 consecutive patients (M = 75, F = 119; mean age 53.2 ±11 years) with a mechanical prosthetic valve (n = 103 cases; 53%) or bioprosthesis (91; 47%). Univariate and multivariate Cox statistical analysis was performed to determine risk factors of early and late mortality. Results The overall early mortality was 18.6%: 31.4% in patients with symptoms of NYHA functional class III-IV and 3.4% in pts in NYHA class I-II. Multivariate analysis identified symptoms of NYHA class III-IV and endocarditis as independent predictors of early mortality. The overall late mortality (> 30 days) was 8.2% (0.62% year/patient). Multivariate analysis identified age at the time of reoperation as a strong independent predictor of late mortality. Conclusions Reoperation in patients with prosthetic valves, performed urgently, especially in patients with symptoms of NYHA class III-IV or in the case of endocarditis, bears a high mortality rate. Risk of planned reoperation, mostly in patients with symptoms of NYHA class I-II, does not differ from the risk of the first operation. PMID:22291767

Reliability of intensive care unit admitting and comorbid diagnoses, race, elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and predicted probability of mortality in an electronic intensive care unit database.

PubMed

Wenner, Joshua B; Norena, Monica; Khan, Nadia; Palepu, Anita; Ayas, Najib T; Wong, Hubert; Dodek, Peter M

2009-09-01

Although reliability of severity of illness and predicted probability of hospital mortality have been assessed, interrater reliability of the abstraction of primary and other intensive care unit (ICU) admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities has not been studied. Patient data from one ICU were originally abstracted and entered into an electronic database by an ICU nurse. A research assistant reabstracted patient demographics, ICU admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities, and elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score from 100 random patients of 474 admitted during 2005 using an identical electronic database. Chamberlain's percent positive agreement was used to compare diagnoses and comorbidities between the 2 data abstractors. A kappa statistic was calculated for demographic variables, Glasgow Coma Score, APACHE II chronic health points, and HIV status. Intraclass correlation was calculated for acute physiology points and predicted probability of hospital mortality. Percent positive agreement for ICU primary and other admitting diagnoses ranged from 0% (primary brain injury) to 71% (sepsis), and for underlying comorbidities, from 40% (coronary artery bypass graft) to 100% (HIV). Agreement as measured by kappa statistic was strong for race (0.81) and age points (0.95), moderate for chronic health points (0.50) and HIV (0.66), and poor for Glasgow Coma Score (0.36). Intraclass correlation showed a moderate-high agreement for acute physiology points (0.88) and predicted probability of hospital mortality (0.71). Reliability for ICU diagnoses and elements of the APACHE II score is related to the objectivity of primary data in the medical charts.

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Death and Progression to ESRD in Individuals With CKD: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez, Orlando M.; Muntner, Paul; Rizk, Dana V.; McClellan, William M.; Warnock, David G.; Newby, P.K.; Judd, Suzanne E.

2014-01-01

Background Nutrition is strongly linked with health outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, few studies have examined relationships between dietary patterns and health outcomes in persons with CKD. Study Design Observational cohort study. Setting & Participants 3,972 participants with CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or an albumin-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g at baseline) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a prospective cohort study of 30,239 black and white adults at least 45 years of age. Predictors Five empirically derived dietary patterns identified via factor analysis: “Convenience” (Chinese and Mexican foods, pizza, other mixed dishes), “Plant-Based” (fruits, vegetables), “Sweets/Fats” (sugary foods), “Southern” (fried foods, organ meats, sweetened beverages), and “Alcohol/Salads” (alcohol, green-leafy vegetables, salad dressing). Outcomes All-cause mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Results A total of 816 deaths and 141 ESRD events were observed over approximately 6 years of follow-up. There were no statistically significant associations of Convenience, Sweets/Fats or Alcohol/Salads pattern scores with all-cause mortality after multivariable adjustment. In Cox regression models adjusted for sociodemographic factors, energy intake, co-morbidities, and baseline kidney function, higher Plant-Based pattern scores (indicating greater consistency with the pattern) were associated with lower risk of mortality (HR comparing fourth to first quartile, 0.77; 95%CI, 0.61–0.97) whereas higher Southern pattern scores were associated with greater risk of mortality (HR comparing fourth to first quartile, 1.51; 95%CI, 1.19–1.92). There were no associations of dietary patterns with incident ESRD in multivariable-adjusted models. Limitations Missing dietary pattern data, potential residual confounding from lifestyle factors. Conclusions A Southern dietary pattern rich in processed and fried foods was independently associated with mortality in persons with CKD. In contrast, a diet rich in fruits and vegetables appeared to be protective. PMID:24679894

Social determinants for infant mortality in the Nordic countries, 1980-2001.

PubMed

Arntzen, Annett; Nybo Andersen, Anne Marie

2004-01-01

Social equity in health is an important goal of public health policies in the Nordic countries. Infant mortality is often used as an indicator of the health of societies, and has decreased substantially in the Nordic welfare states over the past 20 years. To identify social patterns in infant mortality in this context the authors set out to review the existing epidemiological literature on associations between social indicators and infant mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1980-2000. Nordic epidemiological studies in the databases ISI Web of Science, PubMed, and OVID, published between 1980 and 2000 focusing on social indicators of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, were identified. The selected keywords on social indicators were: education, income, occupation, social factors, socioeconomic status, social position, and social class. Social inequality in infant mortality was reported from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, and it was found that these increased during the study period. Post-neonatal mortality showed a stronger association with social indicators than neonatal mortality. Some studies showed that neonatal mortality was associated with social indicators in a non-linear fashion, with high rates of mortality in both the lowest and highest social strata. The pattern differed, however, between countries with Finland and Sweden showing consistently less social inequalities than Denmark and Norway. While the increased inequality shown in most studies was an increase in relative risk, a single study from Denmark demonstrated an absolute increase in infant mortality among children born to less educated women. Social inequalities in infant mortality are observed in all four countries, irrespective of social indicators used in the studies. It is, however, difficult to draw inferences from the comparisons between countries, since different measures of social position and different inclusion criteria are used in the studies. Nordic collaborative analyses of social gradients in infant death are needed, taking advantage of the population-covering registers in longitudinal designs, to explore the mechanisms behind the social patterns in infant mortality.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality after mitral valve surgery for post-myocardial infarction papillary muscle rupture.

PubMed

Bouma, Wobbe; Wijdh-den Hamer, Inez J; Koene, Bart M; Kuijpers, Michiel; Natour, Ehsan; Erasmus, Michiel E; van der Horst, Iwan C C; Gorman, Joseph H; Gorman, Robert C; Mariani, Massimo A

2014-10-18

Papillary muscle rupture (PMR) is a rare, but often life-threatening mechanical complication of myocardial infarction (MI). Immediate surgical intervention is considered the optimal and most rational treatment for acute PMR, but carries high risks. At this point it is not entirely clear which patients are at highest risk. In this study we sought to determine in-hospital mortality and its predictors for patients who underwent mitral valve surgery for post-MI PMR. Between January 1990 and December 2012, 48 consecutive patients (mean age 64.9 ± 10.8 years) underwent mitral valve repair (n = 10) or replacement (n = 38) for post-MI PMR. Clinical data, echocardiographic data, catheterization data, and surgical reports were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Intraoperative mortality was 4.2% and in-hospital mortality was 25.0%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed the logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curves showed an optimal cutoff value of 40% for the logistic EuroSCORE (area under the curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.71-1.00, P < 0.001) and of 25% for the EuroSCORE II (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-0.99, P = 0.001). After removal of the EuroSCOREs from the model, complete PMR and intraoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) requirement were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The logistic EuroSCORE (optimal cutoff ≥ 40%), EuroSCORE II (optimal cutoff ≥ 25%), complete PMR, and intraoperative IABP requirement are strong independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing mitral valve surgery for post-MI PMR. These predictors may aid in surgical decision making and they may help improve the quality of informed consent.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Waller, Lance A; Schieb, Linda J; Greer, Sophia; Casper, Michele

2015-05-01

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought.

PubMed

Johnson, Daniel M; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Carter Berry, Z; Schwantes, Amanda M; McCulloh, Katherine A; Woodruff, David R; Wayne Polley, H; Wortemann, Remí; Swenson, Jennifer J; Scott Mackay, D; McDowell, Nate G; Jackson, Robert B

2018-03-01

From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought.

PubMed

Young, Derek J N; Stevens, Jens T; Earles, J Mason; Moore, Jeffrey; Ellis, Adam; Jirka, Amy L; Latimer, Andrew M

2017-01-01

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km 2 , rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The short-term and long-term effects of divorce on mortality risk in a large Finnish cohort, 1990-2003.

PubMed

Metsä-Simola, Niina; Martikainen, Pekka

2013-01-01

This study investigated time patterns of post-divorce excess mortality. Using register-based data, we followed 252,641 married Finns from 1990 until subsequent date of divorce and death until 2003. Among men, excess mortality is highest immediately after divorce, followed by a decline over 8 years. Among women, excess mortality shows little variation over time, and is lower than among men at all durations of divorce. Social and economic factors--largely adjustment for post-divorce factors--explain about half of the excess mortality. This suggests that excess mortality is partly mediated through poor social and economic resources. Mortality attributable to accidental, violent, and alcohol-related causes is pronounced shortly after divorce. It shows a strong pattern of reduction over the next 4 years among divorced men, and is high for only 6 months after divorce among divorced women. These findings emphasize the importance of short-term psychological distress, particularly among men.

Gestational Age Patterns of Fetal and Neonatal Mortality in Europe: Results from the Euro-Peristat Project

PubMed Central

Mohangoo, Ashna D.; Buitendijk, Simone E.; Szamotulska, Katarzyna; Chalmers, Jim; Irgens, Lorentz M.; Bolumar, Francisco; Nijhuis, Jan G.; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Background The first European Perinatal Health Report showed wide variability between European countries in fetal (2.6–9.1‰) and neonatal (1.6–5.7‰) mortality rates in 2004. We investigated gestational age patterns of fetal and neonatal mortality to improve our understanding of the differences between countries with low and high mortality. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on 29 countries/regions participating in the Euro-Peristat project were analyzed. Most European countries had no limits for the registration of live births, but substantial variations in limits for registration of stillbirths before 28 weeks of gestation existed. Country rankings changed markedly after excluding deaths most likely to be affected by registration differences (22–23 weeks for neonatal mortality and 22–27 weeks for fetal mortality). Countries with high fetal mortality ≥28 weeks had on average higher proportions of fetal deaths at and near term (≥37 weeks), while proportions of fetal deaths at earlier gestational ages (28–31 and 32–36 weeks) were higher in low fetal mortality countries. Countries with high neonatal mortality rates ≥24 weeks, all new member states of the European Union, had high gestational age-specific neonatal mortality rates for all gestational-age subgroups; they also had high fetal mortality, as well as high early and late neonatal mortality. In contrast, other countries with similar levels of neonatal mortality had varying levels of fetal mortality, and among these countries early and late neonatal mortality were negatively correlated. Conclusions For valid European comparisons, all countries should register births and deaths from at least 22 weeks of gestation and should be able to distinguish late terminations of pregnancy from stillbirths. After excluding deaths most likely to be influenced by existing registration differences, important variations in both levels and patterns of fetal and neonatal mortality rates were found. These disparities raise questions for future research about the effectiveness of medical policies and care in European countries. PMID:22110575

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia; Zheng, Ming-Hua

2016-01-01

Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813-0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725-0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group.

The role of birth cohorts in long-term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries.

PubMed

Trias-Llimós, Sergi; Bijlsma, Maarten J; Janssen, Fanny

2017-02-01

Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and country exist is essential for developing health policies. Birth cohort effects, indicative of differences by generation in drinking, have rarely been studied. This study estimated the relative contributions of birth cohorts to liver cirrhosis mortality trends and compared sex- and country-specific cohort patterns across eight European countries. Time-series analysis of population-level mortality data. Austria, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden; 1950-2011. National populations aged 15-94 years. We modelled country- and sex-specific liver cirrhosis mortality (from national vital registers) adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. Birth cohorts (adjusted for age and period) made statistically significant contributions to liver cirrhosis mortality in all countries and for both sexes (P < 0.001), and more so among women (average contribution to deviance reduction of 38.8%) than among men (17.4%). The observed cohort patterns were statistically different between all but two country pairs (P < 0.001). Sex differences existed overall (P < 0.001), but not in the majority of countries (P > 0.999). Visual inspection of birth cohort patterns reveals birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality. The inclusion of the birth cohort dimension improves the understanding of alcohol-attributable mortality trends in Europe. Birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality were born during 1935-49 in Sweden and Finland, around 1950 in Austria and the Netherlands and 1960 or later in Hungary, Italy, Poland and Spain. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Changes in the social class gradient of cirrhosis mortality in England and Wales across the 20th century.

PubMed

Crombie, Iain K; Precious, Elaine

2011-01-01

To explore the nature of the social class gradient of cirrhosis mortality in England and Wales across the 20th century. Data on male cirrhosis mortality by social class were obtained from the Registrar General's Decennial Supplements for the years 1921-1991. Data for 1941 were not collected because of the second World War. In 1921, cirrhosis mortality was substantially higher among the professional and managerial classes (I and II) than among the other social classes (III-V). This marked social class difference persisted until 1961 when the differences between the social classes were inconsistent. By 1991, the gradient had reversed and the lower social classes (IV and V) had the higher mortality. The excess mortality was greatest for social class V. The change in the mortality gradient is stark: in 1921social classes I and II had a cirrhosis mortality at least twice that of social classes IV and V, but by 1991 this ratio had reversed. The reversal in the social class gradient of cirrhosis mortality indicates a major change in risk factor distribution across social classes. Differential changes in alcohol consumption are a possible explanation for this change, although the 1991 social class gradient in cirrhosis is inconsistent with alcohol consumption data from national surveys. Further research is required to clarify the explanation for the observed gradient, so that appropriate preventive measures can be put into place.

A Nine-Year Follow-up Study of Sleep Patterns and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chen, Hsi-Chung; Su, Tung-Ping; Chou, Pesus

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: To simultaneously explore the associations between mortality and insomnia, sleep duration, and the use of hypnotics in older adults. Design: A fixed cohort study. Setting: A community in Shih-Pai area, Taipei, Taiwan. Participants: A total of 4,064 participants over the age of 65 completed the study. Intervention: N/A. Measurements and Results: Insomnia was classified using an exclusionary hierarchical algorithm, which categorized insomnia as “no insomnia,” “subjective poor sleep quality,” “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia,” “1-month insomnia disorder,” and “6-month insomnia disorder.” The main outcome variables were 9-year all-cause mortality rates. In the all-cause mortality analyses, when hypnotic use, depressive symptoms and total sleep time were excluded from a proportional hazards regression model, subjects with “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia” had a higher mortality risk (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01-1.45). In the full model, frequent hypnotic use and long sleep duration predicted higher mortality rates. However, the increased mortality risk for subjects with “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia” was not observed in the full model. On the contrary, individuals with a 6-month DSM-IV insomnia disorder had a lower risk for premature death (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43-0.96). Conclusions: Long sleep duration and frequent hypnotics use predicted an increased mortality risk within a community-dwelling sample of older adults. The association between insomnia and mortality was affected by insomnia definition and other parameters related to sleep patterns. Citation: Chen HC; Su TP; Chou P. A nine-year follow-up study of sleep patterns and mortality in community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan. SLEEP 2013;36(8):1187-1198. PMID:23904679

Effect of More vs Less Frequent Follow-up Testing on Overall and Colorectal Cancer-Specific Mortality in Patients With Stage II or III Colorectal Cancer: The COLOFOL Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Wille-Jørgensen, Peer; Syk, Ingvar; Smedh, Kenneth; Laurberg, Søren; Nielsen, Dennis T; Petersen, Sune H; Renehan, Andrew G; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Påhlman, Lars; Sørensen, Henrik T

2018-05-22

Intensive follow-up of patients after curative surgery for colorectal cancer is common in clinical practice, but evidence of a survival benefit is limited. To examine overall mortality, colorectal cancer-specific mortality, and colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rates among patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer who were randomized after curative surgery to 2 alternative schedules for follow-up testing with computed tomography and carcinoembryonic antigen. Unblinded randomized trial including 2509 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer treated at 24 centers in Sweden, Denmark, and Uruguay from January 2006 through December 2010 and followed up for 5 years; follow-up ended on December 31, 2015. Patients were randomized either to follow-up testing with computed tomography of the thorax and abdomen and serum carcinoembryonic antigen at 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after surgery (high-frequency group; n = 1253 patients) or at 12 and 36 months after surgery (low-frequency group; n = 1256 patients). The primary outcomes were 5-year overall mortality and colorectal cancer-specific mortality rates. The secondary outcome was the colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rate. Both intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed. Among 2555 patients who were randomized, 2509 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (mean age, 63.5 years; 1128 women [45%]) and 2365 (94.3%) completed the trial. The 5-year overall patient mortality rate in the high-frequency group was 13.0% (161/1253) compared with 14.1% (174/1256) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 1.1% [95% CI, -1.6% to 3.8%]; P = .43). The 5-year colorectal cancer-specific mortality rate in the high-frequency group was 10.6% (128/1248) compared with 11.4% (137/1250) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 0.8% [95% CI, -1.7% to 3.3%]; P = .52). The colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rate was 21.6% (265/1248) in the high-frequency group compared with 19.4% (238/1250) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 2.2% [95% CI, -1.0% to 5.4%]; P = .15). Among patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer, follow-up testing with computed tomography and carcinoembryonic antigen more frequently compared with less frequently did not result in a significant rate reduction in 5-year overall mortality or colorectal cancer-specific mortality. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00225641.

White Infant Mortality in Appalachian States, 1976-1980 and 1996-2000: Changing Patterns and Persistent Disparities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yao, Nengliang; Matthews, Stephen A.; Hillemeier, Marianne M.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Appalachian counties have historically had elevated infant mortality rates. Changes in infant mortality disparities over time in Appalachia are not well-understood. This study explores spatial inequalities in white infant mortality rates over time in the 13 Appalachian states, comparing counties in Appalachia with non-Appalachian…

Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought.

PubMed

Gitlin, Alicyn R; Sthultz, Christopher M; Bowker, Matthew A; Stumpf, Stacy; Paxton, Kristina L; Kennedy, Karla; Muñoz, Axhel; Bailey, Joseph K; Whitham, Thomas G

2006-10-01

Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

PubMed Central

Kassomenos, P; Gryparis, A; Samoli, E; Katsouyanni, K; Lykoudis, S; Flocas, H A

2001-01-01

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation. PMID:11445513

The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

PubMed Central

Alam, Nurul; Begum, Dilruba; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2012-01-01

Introduction The association of weather and mortality have not been widely studied in subtropical monsoon regions, particularly in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the association of weather and mortality (measured with temperature and rainfall), adjusting for time trend and seasonal patterns in Abhoynagar, Bangladesh. Material and methods A sample vital registration system (SVRS) was set up in 1982 to facilitate operational research in family planning and maternal and child health. SVRS provided data on death counts and population from 1983–2009. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided data on daily temperature and rainfall for the same period. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was used, allowing for over-dispersion, including lagged weather parameters, and adjusting for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results Both weekly mean temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns. After adjusting for seasonal pattern and time trend, weekly mean temperatures (lag 0) below the 25th percentile and between the 25th and 75th percentiles were associated with increased mortality risk, particularly in females and adults aged 20–59 years by 2.3–2.4% for every 1°C decrease. Temperature above the 75th percentile did not increase the risk. Every 1 mm increase in rainfall up to 14 mm of weekly average rainfall over lag 0–4 weeks was associated with decreased mortality risks. Rainfall above 14 mm was associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusion The relationships between temperature, rainfall and mortality reveal the importance of understanding the current factors contributing to adaptation and acclimatization, and how these can be enhanced to reduce negative impacts from weather. PMID:23195512

Diversity of ageing across the tree of life.

PubMed

Jones, Owen R; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Schaible, Ralf; Casper, Brenda B; Dahlgren, Johan P; Ehrlén, Johan; García, María B; Menges, Eric S; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Caswell, Hal; Baudisch, Annette; Vaupel, James W

2014-01-09

Evolution drives, and is driven by, demography. A genotype moulds its phenotype's age patterns of mortality and fertility in an environment; these two patterns in turn determine the genotype's fitness in that environment. Hence, to understand the evolution of ageing, age patterns of mortality and reproduction need to be compared for species across the tree of life. However, few studies have done so and only for a limited range of taxa. Here we contrast standardized patterns over age for 11 mammals, 12 other vertebrates, 10 invertebrates, 12 vascular plants and a green alga. Although it has been predicted that evolution should inevitably lead to increasing mortality and declining fertility with age after maturity, there is great variation among these species, including increasing, constant, decreasing, humped and bowed trajectories for both long- and short-lived species. This diversity challenges theoreticians to develop broader perspectives on the evolution of ageing and empiricists to study the demography of more species.

A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

PubMed

Newman, Saul J; Easteal, Simon

2015-01-01

Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

Determinants of child mortality in LDCs: empirical findings from demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Wang, Limin

2003-09-01

Empirical studies on child mortality at the disaggregated level-by social-economic group or geographic location-are more informative for designing health polices. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from over 60 low-income countries, this study (1) presents global patterns of the level and inequality in child mortality and (2) investigates the determinants of child mortality, both at the national level and separately for urban and rural areas. The global patterns of health outcomes reveal two interesting observations. First, as child mortality declines, the gap in mortality between the poor and the better-off widens. Second, while child mortality in rural areas is substantially higher than in urban areas, the reduction in child mortality is much slower in rural areas where the poor are concentrated. This suggests that health interventions implemented in the past decade may not have been as effective as intended in reaching the poor. The analysis on mortality determination shows that at the national level access to electricity, incomes, vaccination in the first year of birth, and public health expenditure significantly reduce child mortality. The electricity effect is large and independent of the income effect. While in urban areas, access to electricity is the only significant mortality determinant, in rural areas, vaccination in the first year of birth is the only significant factor.

Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

PubMed

Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

2017-12-01

Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission, there is enough signal to effectively predict mortality during the first 6h of admission. The proposed framework, in particular the one that uses the ensemble learning approach - EMPICU Random Forest (EMPICU-RF) offers a base to construct an effective and novel mortality prediction model in the early hours of an ICU patient admission, with an improved performance profile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD. The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.

City-Specific Spatiotemporal Infant and Neonatal Mortality Clusters: Links with Socioeconomic and Air Pollution Spatial Patterns in France.

PubMed

Padilla, Cindy M; Kihal-Talantikit, Wahida; Vieira, Verónica M; Deguen, Séverine

2016-06-22

Infant and neonatal mortality indicators are known to vary geographically, possibly as a result of socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. To better understand how these factors contribute to spatial and temporal patterns, we conducted a French ecological study comparing two time periods between 2002 and 2009 for three (purposefully distinct) Metropolitan Areas (MAs) and the city of Paris, using the French census block of parental residence as the geographic unit of analysis. We identified areas of excess risk and assessed the role of neighborhood deprivation and average nitrogen dioxide concentrations using generalized additive models to generate maps smoothed on longitude and latitude. Comparison of the two time periods indicated that statistically significant areas of elevated infant and neonatal mortality shifted northwards for the city of Paris, are present only in the earlier time period for Lille MA, only in the later time period for Lyon MA, and decrease over time for Marseille MA. These city-specific geographic patterns in neonatal and infant mortality are largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. Spatial analysis can be a useful tool for understanding how risk factors contribute to disparities in health outcomes ranging from infant mortality to infectious disease-a leading cause of infant mortality.

City-Specific Spatiotemporal Infant and Neonatal Mortality Clusters: Links with Socioeconomic and Air Pollution Spatial Patterns in France

PubMed Central

Padilla, Cindy M.; Kihal-Talantikit, Wahida; Vieira, Verónica M.; Deguen, Séverine

2016-01-01

Infant and neonatal mortality indicators are known to vary geographically, possibly as a result of socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. To better understand how these factors contribute to spatial and temporal patterns, we conducted a French ecological study comparing two time periods between 2002 and 2009 for three (purposefully distinct) Metropolitan Areas (MAs) and the city of Paris, using the French census block of parental residence as the geographic unit of analysis. We identified areas of excess risk and assessed the role of neighborhood deprivation and average nitrogen dioxide concentrations using generalized additive models to generate maps smoothed on longitude and latitude. Comparison of the two time periods indicated that statistically significant areas of elevated infant and neonatal mortality shifted northwards for the city of Paris, are present only in the earlier time period for Lille MA, only in the later time period for Lyon MA, and decrease over time for Marseille MA. These city-specific geographic patterns in neonatal and infant mortality are largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. Spatial analysis can be a useful tool for understanding how risk factors contribute to disparities in health outcomes ranging from infant mortality to infectious disease—a leading cause of infant mortality. PMID:27338439

Economic distress and cause-of-death patterns for black and non-black men in Chicago: reconsidering the relevance of classic epidemiological transition theory.

PubMed

Palazzo, Lorella; Guest, Avery; Almgren, Gunnar

2003-01-01

The mortality disadvantage of African Americans is well documented, but previous studies have not considered its implications for population theory in the general case of industrialized nation states with high levels of income inequality. This paper examines the relevance of classic epidemiological theory to the extremes of income and mortality observed in Chicago, one of America's most racially divided cities. We analyze cause-specific death rates for black and non-black male populations residing in Chicago's community areas by using linked data from the 1990 Census and from 1989-1991 individual death certificates. The same cause-of-death patterns explain much of the mortality of black and non-black men. These two major structures include one, degenerative diseases, the other, "tough-living" causes (accidents, homicides, and liver disease). Community socioeconomic status is strongly related to tough-living deaths within each racial group, and to degenerative deaths for African Americans. Black men's tough-living mortality is much greater than non-blacks', but their younger age structure suppresses their degenerative death rates. Aggregate unemployment and social disorganization account for the most salient disparities in mortality across racial groups. This patterning of mortality along a socioeconomic continuum supports epidemiological theory and extends its applicability to highly unequal populations within industrialized countries.

Prioritization of influenza pandemic vaccination to minimize years of life lost.

PubMed

Miller, Mark A; Viboud, Cecile; Olson, Donald R; Grais, Rebecca F; Rabaa, Maia A; Simonsen, Lone

2008-08-01

How to allocate limited vaccine supplies in the event of an influenza pandemic is currently under debate. Conventional vaccination strategies focus on those at highest risk for severe outcomes, including seniors, but do not consider (1) the signature pandemic pattern in which mortality risk is shifted to younger ages, (2) likely reduced vaccine response in seniors, and (3) differences in remaining years of life with age. We integrated these factors to project the age-specific years of life lost (YLL) and saved in a future pandemic, on the basis of mortality patterns from 3 historical pandemics, age-specific vaccine efficacy, and the 2000 US population structure. For a 1918-like scenario, the absolute mortality risk is highest in people <45 years old; in contrast, seniors (those >or=65 years old) have the highest mortality risk in the 1957 and 1968 scenarios. The greatest YLL savings would be achieved by targeting different age groups in each scenario; people <45 years old in the 1918 scenario, people 45-64 years old in the 1968 scenario, and people >45 years old in the 1957 scenario. Our findings shift the focus of pandemic vaccination strategies onto younger populations and illustrate the need for real-time surveillance of mortality patterns in a future pandemic. Flexible setting of vaccination priority is essential to minimize mortality.

HbA1c is outcome predictor in diabetic patients with sepsis.

PubMed

Gornik, Ivan; Gornik, Olga; Gasparović, Vladimir

2007-07-01

We have investigated predictive value of HbA1c for hospital mortality and length of stay (LOS) in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted because of sepsis. A prospective observational study was implemented in a university hospital, 286 patients with type 2 diabetes admitted with sepsis were included. Leukocyte count, CRP, admission plasma glucose, APACHE II and SOFA score were noted at admission, HbA1c was measured on the first day following admission. Hospital mortality and hospital length of stay (LOS) were the outcome measures. Admission HbA1c was significantly lower in surviving patients than in non-survivors (median 8.2% versus 9.75%, respectively; P<0.001). There was a significant correlation between admission HbA1c and hospital LOS of surviving patients (r=0.29; P<0.001). Logistic regression showed that HbA1c is an independent predictor of hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.36), together with female sex (OR 2.24), APACHE II score (OR 1.08) and SOFA score (OR 1.28). Multiple regression showed that HbA1c and APACHE II score are independently related to hospital LOS. According to our results, HbA1c is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality and hospital LOS of diabetic patients with sepsis.

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

PubMed

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age <70) used for comparison. The outcome of interest in this study was in-hospital mortality. The entire cohort and subsets of patients were analyzed. The calibration and discrimination in total and in subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and the C statistics respectively. Institutional overall mortality was 2.52%. The expected mortality rates of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Esophageal Cancer Mortality: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Okada, Emiko; Nakamura, Koshi; Ukawa, Shigekazu; Sakata, Kiyomi; Date, Chigusa; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2016-01-01

Several case-control studies have associated dietary patterns with esophageal cancer (EC) risk, but prospective studies are scarce. We investigated dietary pattern and EC mortality risk associations by smoking status. Participants were 26,562 40- to 79-yr-old Japanese men, who enrolled in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study between 1988 and 1990. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC mortality in nonsmokers and smokers were estimated using Cox proportional models. During follow-up (1988-2009), 132 participants died of EC. Using a baseline food frequency questionnaire and factor analysis, vegetable, animal, and dairy product food patterns were identified. EC risk decreased significantly with a higher factor score for the dairy product pattern (Ptrend = 0.042) and was more pronounced in smokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.30, 1.09; Ptrend = 0.021]. Neither vegetable nor animal food patterns were significant overall; however, EC risk increased with a higher factor score for the animal food pattern in nonsmokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 6.01, 95% CI: 1.17, 30.88; Ptrend = 0.021], although the small number of events was a limitation. Our findings suggest a dairy product pattern may reduce EC risk in Japanese men, especially smokers.

Severe 2010 Cold-Water Event Caused Unprecedented Mortality to Corals of the Florida Reef Tract and Reversed Previous Survivorship Patterns

PubMed Central

Lirman, Diego; Schopmeyer, Stephanie; Manzello, Derek; Gramer, Lewis J.; Precht, William F.; Muller-Karger, Frank; Banks, Kenneth; Barnes, Brian; Bartels, Erich; Bourque, Amanda; Byrne, James; Donahue, Scott; Duquesnel, Janice; Fisher, Louis; Gilliam, David; Hendee, James; Johnson, Meaghan; Maxwell, Kerry; McDevitt, Erin; Monty, Jamie; Rueda, Digna; Ruzicka, Rob; Thanner, Sara

2011-01-01

Background Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity. Methodology/Principal Findings Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species. Conclusions/Significance The cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover. PMID:21853066

Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

2014-01-01

The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Casper, Michele; Kramer, Michael R.; Quick, Harrison; Schieb, Linda J.; Vaughan, Adam S.; Greer, Sophia

2016-01-01

Background Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. Methods and Results Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. Conclusions The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality. PMID:27002081

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Casper, Michele; Kramer, Michael R; Quick, Harrison; Schieb, Linda J; Vaughan, Adam S; Greer, Sophia

2016-03-22

Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Trend surface models in the representation and analysis of time factors in cancer mortality.

PubMed

Cislaghi, C; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Levi, F

1990-01-01

A method of graphic representation of time factors in cancer mortality is presented, based on different tonalities of grey applied to the surface of the matrix defined by various age-specific rates. It is illustrated using mortality data from cancers of the mouth or pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung in Italian and Swiss males. Progressively more complex regression surface equations are defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age and cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific rate). General patterns of trends were thus identified, showing important similarities in cohort and period effects, but also noticeable differences in time-related factors in mortality from various neoplasms of the upper digestive and respiratory tract. For instance, there were declines in mortality from cancers of the mouth or pharynx in the oldest age groups, whereas rates were appreciably upwards at younger and middle age, particularly in Italy. Likewise, cancers of the oesophagus and, chiefly, of the larynx were substantially increasing, on a cohort basis, in oldest Italian males. Temporal pattern for laryngeal cancer in Italy was similar to that of lung cancer, thus suggesting that (cigarette) smoking has a greater impact on this cancer site as compared with alcohol. However, it is difficult to explain, on this basis alone, the totally diverging pattern for cancer of the larynx (downwards) and of the lung (upwards) observed among older Swiss males. These examples indicate that trend surface models are a useful summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in cancer mortality.

Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

PubMed

Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

2010-06-01

The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

Mortality of veteran participants in the crossroads nuclear test

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, J.C.; Thaul, S.; Page, W.F.

1997-07-01

Operation CROSSROADS, conducted at Bikini Atoll in 1946, was the first post World War II test of nuclear weapons. Mortality experience of 40,000 military veteran participants in CROSSROADS was compared to that of a similar cohort of nonparticipating veterans. All-cause mortality of the participants was slightly increased over nonparticipants by 5% (p < .001). Smaller increases in participant mortality for all malignancies (1.4%, p = 0.26) or leukemia (2.0%, p = 0.9) were not statistically significant. These results do not support a hypothesis that radiation had increased participant cancer mortality over that of nonparticipants. 8 refs.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among US youth: socioeconomic and rural-urban disparities and international patterns.

PubMed

Singh, Gopal K; Azuine, Romuladus E; Siahpush, Mohammad; Kogan, Michael D

2013-06-01

We analyzed international patterns and socioeconomic and rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from homicide, suicide, unintentional injuries, and HIV/AIDS among US youth aged 15-24 years. A county-level socioeconomic deprivation index and rural-urban continuum measure were linked to the 1999-2007 US mortality data. Mortality rates were calculated for each socioeconomic and rural-urban group. Poisson regression was used to derive adjusted relative risks of youth mortality by deprivation level and rural-urban residence. The USA has the highest youth homicide rate and 6th highest overall youth mortality rate in the industrialized world. Substantial socioeconomic and rural-urban gradients in youth mortality were observed within the USA. Compared to their most affluent counterparts, youth in the most deprived group had 1.9 times higher all-cause mortality, 8.0 times higher homicide mortality, 1.5 times higher unintentional-injury mortality, and 8.8 times higher HIV/AIDS mortality. Youth in rural areas had significantly higher mortality rates than their urban counterparts regardless of deprivation levels, with suicide and unintentional-injury mortality risks being 1.8 and 2.3 times larger in rural than in urban areas. However, youth in the most urbanized areas had at least 5.6 times higher risks of homicide and HIV/AIDS mortality than their rural counterparts. Disparities in mortality differed by race and sex. Socioeconomic deprivation and rural-urban continuum were independently related to disparities in youth mortality among all sex and racial/ethnic groups, although the impact of deprivation was considerably greater. The USA ranks poorly in all-cause mortality, youth homicide, and unintentional-injury mortality rates when compared with other industrialized countries.

Mortality among immigrants in England and Wales by major causes of death, 1971-2012: A longitudinal analysis of register-based data.

PubMed

Wallace, Matthew; Kulu, Hill

2015-12-01

Recent research has found a migrant mortality advantage among immigrants relative to the UK-born population living in England and Wales. However, while all-cause mortality is useful to show differences in mortality between immigrants and the host population, it can mask variation in mortality patterns from specific causes of death. This study analyses differences in the causes of death among immigrants living in England and Wales. We extend previous research by applying competing-risks survival analysis to study a large-scale longitudinal dataset from 1971 to 2012 to directly compare causes of death. We confirm low all-cause mortality among nearly all immigrants, except immigrants from Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (who have high mortality). In most cases, low all-cause mortality among immigrants is driven by lower mortality from chronic diseases (in nearly all cases by lower cancer mortality and in some cases by lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD)). This low all-cause mortality often coexists with low respiratory disease mortality and among non-western immigrants, coexists with high mortality from infectious diseases; however, these two causes of death contribute little to mortality among immigrants. For men, CVD is the leading cause of death (particularly among South Asians). For women, cancer is the leading cause of death (except among South Asians, for whom CVD is also the leading cause). Differences in CVD mortality over time remain constant between immigrants relative to UK-born, but immigrant cancer patterns shows signs of some convergence to the cancer mortality among the UK-born (though cancer mortality is still low among immigrants by age 80). The study provides the most up-to-date, reliable UK-based analysis of immigrant mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Stress Trajectories Predict Mortality in Older Men? Longitudinal Findings from the VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Aldwin, Carolyn M.; Molitor, Nuoo-Ting; Avron, Spiro; Levenson, Michael R.; Molitor, John; Igarashi, Heidi

2011-01-01

We examined long-term patterns of stressful life events (SLE) and their impact on mortality contrasting two theoretical models: allostatic load (linear relationship) and hormesis (inverted U relationship) in 1443 NAS men (aged 41–87 in 1985; M = 60.30, SD = 7.3) with at least two reports of SLEs over 18 years (total observations = 7,634). Using a zero-inflated Poisson growth mixture model, we identified four patterns of SLE trajectories, three showing linear decreases over time with low, medium, and high intercepts, respectively, and one an inverted U, peaking at age 70. Repeating the analysis omitting two health-related SLEs yielded only the first three linear patterns. Compared to the low-stress group, both the moderate and the high-stress groups showed excess mortality, controlling for demographics and health behavior habits, HRs = 1.42 and 1.37, ps <.01 and <.05. The relationship between stress trajectories and mortality was complex and not easily explained by either theoretical model. PMID:21961066

Forecasting selected specific age mortality rate of Malaysia by using Lee-Carter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri Kamaruddin, Halim; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-03-01

Observing mortality pattern and trend is an important subject for any country to maintain a good social-economy in the next projection years. The declining in mortality trend gives a good impression of what a government has done towards macro citizen in one nation. Selecting a particular mortality model can be a tricky based on the approached method adapting. Lee-Carter model is adapted because of its simplicity and reliability of the outcome results with approach of regression. Implementation of Lee-Carter in finding a fitted model and hence its projection has been used worldwide in most of mortality research in developed countries. This paper studies the mortality pattern of Malaysia in the past by using original model of Lee-Carter (1992) and hence its cross-sectional observation for a single age. The data is indexed by age of death and year of death from 1984 to 2012, in which are supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The results are modelled by using RStudio and the keen analysis will focus on the trend and projection of mortality rate and age specific mortality rate in the future. This paper can be extended to different variants extensions of Lee-Carter or any stochastic mortality tool by using Malaysia mortality experience as a centre of the main issue.

Birth-cohort patterns of mortality from ulcerative colitis and peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2008-10-01

The aim was to follow the time trends of mortality from ulcerative colitis and compare them with those of gastric and duodenal ulcer. Mortality data from 21 different countries between 1941 and 2004 were analyzed. The age-specific death rates of each individual country, as well as the average age-specific rates of all countries, were plotted against the periods of birth and death. The average trends of mortality from ulcerative colitis, gastric and duodenal ulcer reveal distinctive and unique birth-cohort patterns of all three diseases. Similar to both types of peptic ulcer, the risk of developing ulcerative colitis started to rise in successive generations born during the second half of the 19(th) century. It peaked shortly before the turn of the century and has continued to decline since then. The rise and fall in the occurrence of ulcerative colitis preceded those of both ulcer types. The birth-cohort pattern indicates that exposure to the relevant risk factors of ulcerative colitis occurs during early life. As the model of H. pylori and its associated birth-cohort patterns of gastric and duodenal ulcer suggest, an enteric infection provides a possible explanation for such temporal trends of ulcerative colitis as well.

Influence of climate variability on acute myocardial infarction mortality in Havana, 2001-2012.

PubMed

Rivero, Alina; Bolufé, Javier; Ortiz, Paulo L; Rodríguez, Yunisleydi; Reyes, María C

2015-04-01

Death from acute myocardial infarction is due to many factors; influences on risk to the individual include habits, lifestyle and behavior, as well as weather, climate and other environmental components. Changing climate patterns make it especially important to understand how climatic variability may influence acute myocardial infarction mortality. Describe the relationship between climate variability and acute myocardial infarction mortality during the period 2001-2012 in Havana. An ecological time-series study was conducted. The universe comprised 23,744 deaths from acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10: I21-I22) in Havana residents from 2001 to 2012. Climate variability and seasonal anomalies were described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index (comprising variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure), along with series analysis to determine different seasonal-to-interannual climate variation signals. The role played by climate variables in acute myocardial infarction mortality was determined using factor analysis. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used for trend analysis with a significance level of 5%. The strong association between climate variability conditions described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index and acute myocardial infarctions accounts for the marked seasonal pattern in AMI mortality. The highest mortality rate occurred during the dry season, i.e., the winter months in Cuba (November-April), with peak numbers in January, December and March. The lowest mortality coincided with the rainy season, i.e., the summer months (May-October). A downward trend in total number of deaths can be seen starting with the change point in April 2009. Climate variability is inversely associated with an increase in acute myocardial infarction mortality as is shown by the Bultó-1 index. This inverse relationship accounts for acute myocardial infarction mortality's seasonal pattern.

An Online Atlas for Exploring Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Cancer Mortality (1972–2011) and Incidence (1995–2008) in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Ku, Wen-Yuan; Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Jing-Yang; Nfor, Oswald Ndi; Hsu, Shu-Yi; Ko, Pei-Chieh; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chien-Jen

2016-01-01

Abstract Public health mapping and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are already being used to locate the geographical spread of diseases. This study describes the construction of an easy-to-use online atlas of cancer mortality (1972–2011) and incidence (1995–2008) in Taiwan. Two sets of color maps were made based on “age-adjusted mortality by rate” and “age-adjusted mortality by rank.” AJAX (Asynchronous JavaScript and XML), JSON (JavaScript Object Notation), and SVG (Scaling Vector Graphic) were used to create the online atlas. Spatio-temporal patterns of cancer mortality and incidence in Taiwan over the period from 1972 to 2011 and from 1995 to 2008. The constructed online atlas contains information on cancer mortality and incidence (http://taiwancancermap.csmu-liawyp.tw/). The common GIS functions include zoom and pan and identity tools. Users can easily customize the maps to explore the spatio-temporal trends of cancer mortality and incidence using different devices (such as personal computers, mobile phone, or pad). This study suggests an easy- to-use, low-cost, and independent platform for exploring cancer incidence and mortality. It is expected to serve as a reference tool for cancer prevention and risk assessment. This online atlas is a cheap and fast tool that integrates various cancer maps. Therefore, it can serve as a powerful tool that allows users to examine and compare spatio-temporal patterns of various maps. Furthermore, it is an-easy-to use tool for updating data and assessing risk factors of cancer in Taiwan. PMID:27227915

An Online Atlas for Exploring Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Cancer Mortality (1972-2011) and Incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.

PubMed

Ku, Wen-Yuan; Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Jing-Yang; Nfor, Oswald Ndi; Hsu, Shu-Yi; Ko, Pei-Chieh; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chien-Jen

2016-05-01

Public health mapping and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are already being used to locate the geographical spread of diseases. This study describes the construction of an easy-to-use online atlas of cancer mortality (1972-2011) and incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.Two sets of color maps were made based on "age-adjusted mortality by rate" and "age-adjusted mortality by rank." AJAX (Asynchronous JavaScript and XML), JSON (JavaScript Object Notation), and SVG (Scaling Vector Graphic) were used to create the online atlas. Spatio-temporal patterns of cancer mortality and incidence in Taiwan over the period from 1972 to 2011 and from 1995 to 2008.The constructed online atlas contains information on cancer mortality and incidence (http://taiwancancermap.csmu-liawyp.tw/). The common GIS functions include zoom and pan and identity tools. Users can easily customize the maps to explore the spatio-temporal trends of cancer mortality and incidence using different devices (such as personal computers, mobile phone, or pad). This study suggests an easy- to-use, low-cost, and independent platform for exploring cancer incidence and mortality. It is expected to serve as a reference tool for cancer prevention and risk assessment.This online atlas is a cheap and fast tool that integrates various cancer maps. Therefore, it can serve as a powerful tool that allows users to examine and compare spatio-temporal patterns of various maps. Furthermore, it is an-easy-to use tool for updating data and assessing risk factors of cancer in Taiwan.

Early-Stage Estimated Value of Blend Sign on the Prognosis of Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ningquan; Wang, Chao

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose This study aimed to explore the relationship between blend sign and prognosis of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods Between January 2014 and December 2016, the results of cranial computed tomography imaging within 24 h after the onset of symptoms from 275 patients with ICH were retrospectively analyzed. The patients with or without blend sign were compared to observe and analyze the difference in coagulation function abnormality, rebleeding, mortality, and bad prognosis rates in the early stages. Results Of the 275 patients with ICH, 47 patients had Blend Sign I (17.09%) and 17 patients had Blend Sign II (6.18%). The coagulation function abnormality rate had no statistical difference among Blend Sign I, Blend Sign II, and conventional groups (P > 0.05). In the Blend Sign I group, the rebleeding rate was 4.26%, bad prognosis rate was 25.53%, and mortality rate was 6.38%, which were not statistically significantly different compared with those in the conventional group (P > 0.05). The rebleeding rate in the Blend Sign II group was 47.06%, bad prognosis rate was 82.35%, and mortality rate was 47.06%, which were statistically significantly different compared with those in the conventional and Blend Sign I groups (P < 0.05). Conclusions For the patients associated with Blend Sign I, the prognosis was equivalent to that in the conventional group, with no statistically significant difference. The rebleeding, bad prognosis, and mortality rates were higher in the Blend Sign II group than in the conventional group and deserved more attention.

Patients Admitted to Three Spanish Intensive Care Units for Poisoning: Type of Poisoning, Mortality, and Functioning of Prognostic Scores Commonly Used

PubMed Central

Banderas-Bravo, María Esther; Arias-Verdú, Maria Dolores; Macías-Guarasa, Ines; Castillo-Lorente, Encarnación; Pérez-Costillas, Lucia; Gutierrez-Rodriguez, Raquel; Quesada-García, Guillermo; Rivera-Fernández, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate the gravity and mortality of those patients admitted to the intensive care unit for poisoning. Also, the applicability and predicted capacity of prognostic scales most frequently used in ICU must be evaluated. Methods. Multicentre study between 2008 and 2013 on all patients admitted for poisoning. Results. The results are from 119 patients. The causes of poisoning were medication, 92 patients (77.3%), caustics, 11 (9.2%), and alcohol, 20 (16,8%). 78.3% attempted suicides. Mean age was 44.42 ± 13.85 years. 72.5% had a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤8 points. The ICU mortality was 5.9% and the hospital mortality was 6.7%. The mortality from caustic poisoning was 54.5%, and it was 1.9% for noncaustic poisoning (p < 0.001). After adjusting for SAPS-3 (OR: 1.19 (1.02–1.39)) the mortality of patients who had ingested caustics was far higher than the rest (OR: 560.34 (11.64–26973.83)). There was considerable discrepancy between mortality predicted by SAPS-3 (26.8%) and observed (6.7%) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: H = 35.10; p < 0.001). The APACHE-II (7,57%) and APACHE-III (8,15%) were no discrepancies. Conclusions. Admission to ICU for poisoning is rare in our country. Medication is the most frequent cause, but mortality of caustic poisoning is higher. APACHE-II and APACHE-III provide adequate predictions about mortality, while SAPS-3 tends to overestimate. PMID:28459061

An updated cause specific mortality study of petroleum refinery workers.

PubMed Central

Dagg, T G; Satin, K P; Bailey, W J; Wong, O; Harmon, L L; Swencicki, R E

1992-01-01

An update of a cohort study of 14,074 employees at the Richmond and El Segundo refineries of Chevron USA in California was conducted to further examine mortality patterns. The update added six years of follow up (1981-6) and 941 deaths. As in the previous study, mortality from all causes (standard mortality ratio (SMR) = 73) was significantly lower among men compared with the general United States population. Significant deficits were also found for all cancers combined (SMR = 81), several site specific cancers, and most non-malignant causes of death. Mortality from suicide was increased relative to the United States as a whole. Based on a comparison with California rates, however, men had fewer deaths from suicide than expected. Standard mortality ratios were raised for several other causes of death, but only leukaemia and lymphoreticulosarcoma exhibited a pattern suggestive of an occupational relation. The increase appeared to be confined to those hired before 1949, and in the case of lymphoreticulosarcoma, to Richmond workers. PMID:1554618

Rationale and design of PRIMA II: A multicenter, randomized clinical trial to study the impact of in-hospital guidance for acute decompensated heart failure treatment by a predefined NT-PRoBNP target on the reduction of readmIssion and Mortality rAtes.

PubMed

Stienen, Susan; Salah, Khibar; Moons, Andreas H M; Bakx, Adrianus L M; van Pol, Petra E; Schroeder-Tanka, Jutta M; Voogel, Albertus J; Keijer, Jan T; Kortz, R A Mikael; Dickhoff, Cathelijne; Meregalli, Paola G; Tijssen, Jan G; Pinto, Yigal M; Kok, Wouter E

2014-07-01

Hospital admissions for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are frequent and are accompanied by high percentages of mortality and readmissions. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the inactive N-terminal fragment of its precursor proBNP (NT-proBNP) are currently the best predictors of prognosis in heart failure (HF) patients. In the setting of chronic HF, studies that performed guidance of therapy by NT-proBNP have had only limited success. For patients with ADHF, retrospective studies have shown that a reduction in NT-proBNP of ≤30% during admission is a significant predictor of HF readmissions and mortality. These data suggest a role for NT-proBNP guidance in the setting of ADHF admissions. The PRIMA II is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized, controlled, prospective 2-arm trial that investigates the impact of inhospital guidance for ADHF treatment by a predefined NT-proBNP target (>30% reduction during admission) on the reduction of readmission and mortality rates within 180 days. Consenting ADHF patients with NT-proBNP levels of >1,700 ng/L are eligible. After achieving clinical stability, a total of 340 patients are randomized to either NT-proBNP-guided or conventional treatment (1:1). The primary end point is dual, that is, a composite of all-cause mortality and readmission for HF in 180 days and the number of days alive out of hospital in 180 days. Secondary end points are readmissions and/or mortality in 180 days, cost effectiveness of hospitalization days in 180 days, readmissions and mortality in 90 days, and quality of life. The PRIMA II trial aims at providing scientific evidence for the use of NT-proBNP-guided therapy compared with conventional treatment in patients admitted for ADHF. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of pelvic fracture patterns, pelvic binder use and arterial angio-embolization with transfusion requirements and mortality rates; a 7-year retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Agri, Fabio; Bourgeat, Mylène; Becce, Fabio; Moerenhout, Kevin; Pasquier, Mathieu; Borens, Olivier; Yersin, Bertrand; Demartines, Nicolas; Zingg, Tobias

2017-11-09

Pelvic fractures are severe injuries with frequently associated multi-system trauma and a high mortality rate. The value of the pelvic fracture pattern for predicting transfusion requirements and mortality is not entirely clear. To address hemorrhage from pelvic injuries, the early application of pelvic binders is now recommended and arterial angio-embolization is widely used for controlling arterial bleeding. Our aim was to assess the association of the pelvic fracture pattern according to the Tile classification system with transfusion requirements and mortality rates, and to evaluate the correlation between the use of pelvic binders and arterial angio-embolization and the mortality of patients with pelvic fractures. Single-center retrospective cohort study including all consecutive patients with a pelvic fracture from January 2008 to June 2015. All radiological fracture patterns were independently reviewed and grouped according to the Tile classification system. Data on patient demographics, use of pelvic binders and arterial angio-embolization, transfusion requirements and mortality were extracted from the institutional trauma registry and analyzed. The present study included 228 patients. Median patient age was 43.5 years and 68.9% were male. The two independent observers identified 105 Tile C (46.1%), 71 Tile B (31.1%) and 52 Tile A (22.8%) fractures, with substantial to almost perfect interobserver agreement (Kappa 0.70-0.83). Tile C fractures were associated with a higher mortality rate (p = 0.001) and higher transfusion requirements (p < 0.0001) than Tile A or B fractures. Arterial angio-embolization for pelvic bleeding (p = 0.05) and prehospital pelvic binder placement (p = 0.5) were not associated with differences in mortality rates. Tile C pelvic fractures are associated with higher transfusion requirements and a higher mortality rate than Tile A or B fractures. No association between the use of pelvic binders or arterial angio-embolization and survival was observed in this cohort of patients with pelvic fractures.

Serbia within the European context: An analysis of premature mortality.

PubMed

Santric Milicevic, Milena; Bjegovic, Vesna; Terzic, Zorica; Vukovic, Dejana; Kocev, Nikola; Marinkovic, Jelena; Vasic, Vladimir

2009-08-05

Based on the global predictions majority of deaths will be collectively caused by cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and traffic accidents over the coming 25 years. In planning future national health policy actions, inter - regional assessments play an important role. The purpose of the study was to analyze similarities and differences in premature mortality between Serbia, EURO A, EURO B, and EURO C regions in 2000. Mortality and premature mortality patterns were analysed according to cause of death, by gender and seven age intervals. The study results are presented in relative (%) and absolute terms (age-specific and age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and age-standardized rates of years of life lost - YLL per 1,000). Direct standardization of rates was undertaken using the standard population of Europe. The inter-regional comparison was based on a calculation of differences in YLL structures and with a ratio of age-standardized YLL rates per 1,000. A multivariate generalized linear model was used to explore mortality of Serbia and Europe sub-regions with ln age-specific death rates. The dissimilarity was achieved with a p

Lung cancer mortality clusters in Shandong Province, China: how do they change over 40 years?

PubMed Central

Fu, Zhentao; Li, Yingmei; Lu, Zilong; Chu, Jie; Sun, Jiandong; Zhang, Jiyu; Zhang, Gaohui; Xue, Fuzhong; Guo, Xiaolei; Xu, Aiqiang

2017-01-01

Lung cancer has long been a major health problem in China. This study aimed to examine the temporal trend and spatial pattern of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. A Purely Spatial Scan Statistics method with Discrete Poisson models was used to detect possible high-risk spatial clusters. The results show that lung cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province increased markedly from 1970-1974 (7.22 per 100,000 person-years) to 2011-2013 (56.37/100, 000). This increase was associated with both demographic and non-demographic factors. Several significant spatial clusters with high lung cancer mortality were identified. The most likely cluster was located in the northern region of Shandong Province during both 1970-1974 and 2011-2013. It appears the spatial pattern remained largely consistent over the last 40 years despite the absolute increase in the mortality rates. These findings will help develop intervention strategies to reduce lung cancer mortality in this large Chinese population. PMID:29179474

Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought: Belowground hydraulic failure during drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Daniel M.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Carter Berry, Z.

From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species’ diverse mortality patterns using post-drought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modeling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were not consistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of iso/anisohydry,more » photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of growing season whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance), and shallower rooting depths, were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.« less

Mortality in the 2011 Tsunami in Japan

PubMed Central

Nakahara, Shinji; Ichikawa, Masao

2013-01-01

Introduction On 11 March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake caused a huge tsunami that struck Northeast Japan, resulting in nearly 20 000 deaths. We investigated mortality patterns by age, sex, and region in the 3 most severely affected prefectures. Methods Using police data on earthquake victims in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures, mortality rates by sex, age group, and region were calculated, and regional variability in mortality rates across age groups was compared using rate ratios (RRs), with the rates in Iwate as the reference. Results In all regions, age-specific mortality showed a tendency to increase with age; there were no sex differences. Among residents of Iwate, mortality was markedly lower among school-aged children as compared with other age groups. In northern Miyagi and the southern part of the study area, RRs were higher among school-aged children than among other age groups. Conclusions The present study could not address the reasons for the observed mortality patterns and regional differences. To improve preparedness policies, future research should investigate the reasons for regional differences. PMID:23089585

Growth and exploitation rate of Anadara gubernaculum (reeve, 1844) Arcidae Family in Asahan Aquatic of North Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzan, M.; Bakti, D.; Susetya, I. E.; Desrita

2018-02-01

High market demand for A. gubernaculum, tends to increase the greater catching capacity so that the decreasing population. The aims of this study were to determine the growth and rate of exploitation of A. gubernaculum in Asahan aquatic. It was conducted for 1 Month 14 Days from October to November 2016. Data analyzed by (Electronic Lenght Frequencys Assesment Tool) ELEFAN I method by using (FAO-ICLARM Fish Stock Assesment Tool) on FiSAT II software. Shells obtained 855 individual. The growth pattern of shells is negative allometric. The range of condition factor was 0.81 - 2.15. The frequency distribution of the A. gubernaculum ranges from 14 to 43 mm, the dominant size group was 20 - 22 mm. The prediction of growth parameter Von Bertalanfy showed that the asimptot length (L∞) is 43.05 mm, the growth coefficient (K) is 1.2/year and the theoretical life (t0) of the A. gubernaculum is -0.12. The total Mortality (Z) of Anadara gubernaculum was 2.121/year. Natural mortality estimation rate (M) was 1.9/year. The exploitation rate of Anadara gubernaculum is 0.1/year.

Ontogeny of energy allocation reveals selective pressure promoting risk-taking behaviour in young fish cohorts

PubMed Central

Biro, Peter A; Post, John R; Abrahams, Mark V

2005-01-01

Given limited food, prey fishes in a temperate climate must take risks to acquire sufficient reserves for winter and/or to outgrow vulnerability to predation. However, how can we distinguish which selective pressure promotes risk-taking when larger body size is always beneficial? To address this question, we examined patterns of energy allocation in populations of age-0 trout to determine if greater risk-taking corresponds with energy allocation to lipids or to somatic growth. Trout achieved maximum growth rates in all lakes and allocated nearly all of their acquired energy to somatic growth when small in early summer. However, trout in low-food lakes took greater risks to achieve this maximal growth, and therefore incurred high mortality. By late summer, age-0 trout allocated considerable energy to lipids and used previously risky habitats in all lakes. These results indicate that: (i) the size-dependent risk of predation (which is independent of behaviour) promotes risk-taking behaviour of age-0 trout to increase growth and minimize time spent in vulnerable sizes; and (ii) the physiology of energy allocation and behaviour interact to mediate growth/mortality trade-offs for young animals at risk of predation and starvation. PMID:16011918

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence.

PubMed

Eklöf, Anna; Kaneryd, Linda; Münger, Peter

2012-11-05

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.

Mortality experience of Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia: regional variation and temporal trends.

PubMed

Gurven, Michael; Kaplan, Hillard; Supa, Alfredo Zelada

2007-01-01

This paper examines regional and temporal trends in mortality patterns among the Tsimane, a population of small-scale forager-horticulturalists in lowland Bolivia. We compare age-specific mortality in remote forest and riverine regions with that in more acculturated villages and examine mortality changes among all age groups over the past 50 years. Discrete-time logistic regression is used to examine impacts of region, period, sex, and age on mortality hazard. Villages in the remote forest and riverine regions show 2-4 times higher mortality rates from infancy until middle adulthood than in the acculturated region. While there was little change in mortality for most of the life course over the period 1950-1989, overall life expectancy at birth improved by 10 years from 45 to 53 after 1990. In both periods, over half of all deaths were due to infectious disease, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. Accidents and violence accounted for a quarter of all deaths. Unlike typical patterns described by epidemiologic transition theory, we find a much larger period reduction of death rates during middle and late adulthood than during infancy or childhood. In the remote villages, infant death rates changed little, whereas death rates among older adults decreased sharply. We hypothesize that this pattern is due to a combination of differential access to medical interventions, a continued lack of public health infrastructure and Tsimane cultural beliefs concerning sickness and dying. Copyright 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Depression, social support, and clinical outcomes following lung transplantation: a single-center cohort study.

PubMed

Smith, Patrick J; Snyder, Laurie D; Palmer, Scott M; Hoffman, Benson M; Stonerock, Gregory L; Ingle, Krista K; Saulino, Caroline K; Blumenthal, James A

2018-05-01

Depressive symptoms are common among lung transplant candidates and have been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in some studies. Previous studies have been plagued by methodologic problems, including small sample sizes, few clinical events, and uncontrolled confounders, particularly perioperative complications. In addition, few studies have examined social support as a potential protective factor. We therefore examined the association between pretransplant depressive symptoms, social support, and mortality in a large sample of lung transplant recipients. As a secondary aim, we also examined the associations between psychosocial factors, perioperative outcomes [indexed by hospital length of stay (LOS)], and mortality. We hypothesized that depression would be associated with longer LOS and that the association between depression, social support, and mortality would be moderated by LOS. Participants included lung transplant recipients, transplanted at Duke University Medical Center from January 2009 to December 2014. Depressive symptoms were evaluated using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) and social support using the Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS). Medical risk factors included forced vital capacity (FVC), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO 2 ), donor age, acute rejection, and transplant type. Functional status was assessed using six-minute walk distance (6MWD). We also controlled for demographic factors, including age, gender, and native disease. Transplant hospitalization LOS was examined as a marker of perioperative clinical outcomes. Participants included 273 lung recipients (174 restrictive, 67 obstructive, 26 cystic fibrosis, and six "other"). Pretransplant depressive symptoms were common, with 56 participants (21%) exhibiting clinically elevated levels (BDI-II ≥ 14). Greater depressive symptoms were associated with longer LOS [adjusted b = 0.20 (2 days per 7-point higher BDI-II score), P < 0.01]. LOS moderated the associations between depressive symptoms (P = 0.019), social support (P < 0.001), and mortality, such that greater depressive symptoms and lower social support were associated with greater mortality only among individuals with longer LOS. For individuals with LOS ≥ 1 month, clinically elevated depressive symptoms (BDI-II ≥ 14) were associated with a threefold increased risk of mortality (HR = 2.97). Greater pretransplant depressive symptoms and lower social support may be associated with greater mortality among a subset of individuals with worse perioperative outcomes. © 2017 Steunstichting ESOT.

Spatiotemporal patterns of fire-induced forest mortality in boreal regions and its potential drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Tian, H.; Pan, S.; Hansen, M.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the major natural disturbance in boreal forests, which have substantially affected various biological and biophysical processes. Although a few previous studies examined fire severity in boreal regions and reported a higher fire-induced forest mortality in boreal North America than in boreal Eurasia, it remains unclear how this mortality changes over time and how environmental factors affect the temporal dynamics of mortality at a large scale. By using a combination of multiple sources of satellite observations, we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-induced forest mortality in boreal regions, and examine the contributions of potential drivers. Our results show that forest composition is the key factor influencing the spatial variations of fire mortality across ecoregions. For the temporal variations, we find that the late-season burning was associated with higher fire intensity, which lead to greater forest mortality than the early-season burning. Forests burned in the warm and dry years had greater mortality than those burned in the cool and wet years. Our findings suggest that climate warming and drying not only stimulated boreal fire frequency, but also enhanced fire severity and forest mortality. Due to the significant effects of forest mortality on vegetation structure and ecosystem carbon dynamics, the spatiotemporal changes of fire-induced forest mortality should be explicitly considered to better understand fire impacts on regional and global climate change.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D.

2014-07-15

Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increasedmore » risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) = 1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (ω), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.« less

[Spatial analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Madrid City, Spain].

PubMed

Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Prieto-Flores, María-Eugenia; Mellado San Gabino, Ana; Moreno Jiménez, Antonio

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, but its spatial distribution is not homogeneous. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial pattern of mortality from these diseases for men and women, in the populated urban area (AUP) of the municipality of Madrid, and to identify spatial aggregations. An ecological study was carried out by census tract, for men and women in 2010. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), Relative Risk Smoothing (RRS) and Posterior Probability (PP) were calculated to consider the spatial pattern of the disease. To identify spatial clusters the Moran index (Moran I) and the Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) were used. The results were mapped. SMR higher than 1.1 was observed mainly in central areas among men and in peripheral areas among women. The PP that RRS was higher than 1 surpassed 0.8 in the center and in the periphery, in both men and women. Moran's I was 0.04 for men and 0.03 for women (p <0.05 in both cases). Sex differences were observed in the spatial distribution of mortality cases. RME RRS and PP maps showed a heterogeneous pattern in men, whereas in women a clearer pattern was detected, with a relatively higher risk in peripheral areas of the AUP. The LISA method showed similar patterns to those previously observed.

Mortality patterns among residents in Louisiana's industrial corridor, USA, 1970–99

PubMed Central

Tsai, S; Cardarelli, K; Wendt, J; Fraser, A

2004-01-01

Background: Because of the high concentration of oil refining and petrochemical facilities, the industrial area of the lower Mississippi River of South Louisiana has been termed the Industrial Corridor and has frequently been referred to as the "Cancer Corridor". Aims: To quantitatively assess the "Cancer Corridor" controversy based on mortality data available in the public domain, and to identify potential contributing factors to the observed differences in mortality. Methods: Age adjusted mortality rates were calculated for white and non-white males and females in the Industrial Corridor, Louisiana, and the United States for the time periods 1970–79, 1980–89, and 1990–99. Results: All-cause mortality and all cancer combined for white males in the Industrial Corridor were significantly lower than the corresponding Louisiana population while Louisiana had significantly higher rates than the US population for all three time periods. Cancer of the lung was consistently higher in the Industrial Corridor region relative to national rates but lower than or similar to Louisiana. Non-respiratory disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality for white males in the Industrial Corridor were consistently lower than either Louisiana or the USA. However, mortality due to diabetes and heart disease, particularly during the 1990s, was significantly higher in the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana when compared to the USA. Similar mortality patterns were observed for white females. The mortality for non-white males and females in the Industrial Corridor was generally similar to the corresponding populations in Louisiana. There were no consistent patterns for all cancer mortality combined. Stomach cancer was increased among non-whites in both the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana when compared to the corresponding US data. Mortality from diabetes and heart disease among non-whites was significantly higher in the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana than in the USA. Conclusions: Mortality rates in the Industrial Corridor area were generally similar to or lower than the State of Louisiana, which were increased compared to the United States. Contrary to prior public perceptions, mortality due to cancer in the Industrial Corridor does not exceed that for the State of Louisiana. PMID:15031386

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical interventions: do they reflect inequalities in access or quality of health care?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported large socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention, but it is unclear whether these can be attributed to inequalities in access or quality of health care, or to confounding influences such as inequalities in background risk of diseases. We therefore studied whether inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention vary between countries in patterns which differ from those observed for other (non-amenable) causes of death. More specifically, we hypothesized that, as compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use and less strongly with inequalities in common risk factors for disease such as smoking. Methods Cause-specific mortality data for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 14 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-standardized mortality rates and relative risks comparing a lower with a higher educational group. Survey data on health care use and behavioural risk factors for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 12 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-and sex-adjusted odds ratios comparing a low with a higher educational group. Patterns of association were explored by calculating correlation coefficients. Results In most countries and for most amenable causes of death substantial inequalities in mortality were observed, but inequalities in mortality from amenable causes did not vary between countries in patterns that are different from those seen for inequalities in non-amenable mortality. As compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are not more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use. Inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are also not less strongly associated with common risk factors such as smoking. Conclusions We did not find evidence that inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions are related to inequalities in access or quality of health care. Further research is needed to find the causes of socio-economic inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions, and caution should be exercised in interpreting these inequalities as indicating health care deficiencies. PMID:22578154

Adherence to the Healthy Eating Index and Alternative Healthy Eating Index dietary patterns and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Onvani, S; Haghighatdoost, F; Surkan, P J; Larijani, B; Azadbakht, L

2017-04-01

This meta-analysis investigated the association of diet quality indices, as assessed by HEI and AHEI, and the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. We used PubMed, ISI Web of Science and Google Scholar to search for eligible articles published before July 2015. A total of 12 cohort studies (38 reports) and one cross-sectional study (three reports) met the inclusion criteria and were included in our meta-analysis. The highest level of adherence to the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality [relative risk (RR) = 0.77, 95% confidence intterval (CI) = 0.76-0.78], cardiovascular mortality (RR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.74-0.80) and cancer mortality (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.81-0.86). Egger regression tests provided no evidence of publication bias. The present study indicates that high adherence to HEI and AHEI dietary patterns, indicating high diet quality, are associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (as well as cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality). © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

Partitioning loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats into mortality and emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etherington, L.L.; Eggleston, D.B.; Stockhausen, W.T.

2003-01-01

Determining how post-settlement processes modify patterns of settlement is vital in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of recruitment variability of species with open populations. Generally, either single components of post-settlement loss (mortality or emigration) are examined at a time, or else the total loss is examined without discrimination of mortality and emigration components. The role of mortality in the loss of early juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, has been addressed in a few studies; however, the relative contribution of emigration has received little attention. We conducted mark-recapture experiments to examine the relative contribution of mortality and emigration to total loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats. Loss was partitioned into emigration and mortality components using a modified version of Jackson's (1939) square-within-a-square method. The field experiments assessed the effects of two size classes of early instars (J1-J2, J3-J5), two densities of juveniles (low: 16 m-2, high: 64 m-2), and time of day (day, night) on loss rates. In general, total loss rates of experimental juveniles and colonization rates by unmarked juveniles were extremely high (range = 10-57 crabs m-2/6 h and 17-51 crabs m-2/6 h, for loss and colonization, respectively). Total loss rates were higher at night than during the day, suggesting that juveniles (or potentially their predators) exhibit increased nocturnal activity. While colonization rates did not differ by time of day, J3-J5 juveniles demonstrated higher rates of colonization than J1-J2 crabs. Overall, there was high variability in both mortality and emigration, particularly for emigration. Average probabilities of mortality across all treatment combinations ranged from 0.25-0.67/6 h, while probabilities of emigration ranged from 0.29-0.72/6 h. Although mean mortality rates were greater than emigration rates in most treatments, the proportion of experimental trials in which crab loss from seagrass due to mortality was greater than losses due to emigration was not significantly different from 50%. Thus, mortality and emigration appear to contribute equally to juvenile loss in seagrass habitats. The difference in magnitude (absolute amount of loss) between mean emigration and mean mortality varied between size classes, such that differences between emigration and mortality were relatively small for J1-J2 crabs, but much larger for J3-J5 crabs. Further, mortality rates were density-dependent for J3-J5 juvenile stages but not for J1-J2 crabs, whereas emigration was inversely density-dependent among J3-J5 stages but not for J1-J2 instars. The co-dependency of mortality and emigration suggests that the loss term (emigration or mortality) which has the relatively stronger contribution to total loss may dictate the patterns of loss under different conditions. For older juveniles (J3-J5), emigration may only have a large impact on juvenile loss where densities are low, since the contribution of mortality appears to be much greater than emigration at high densities. The size-specific pattern of density-dependent mortality supports the notion of an ontogenetic habitat shift by early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass to unvegetated habitats, since larger individuals may experience increased mortality at high densities within seagrass beds. Qualitative comparisons between this study and a concurrent study of planktonic emigration of J1-J5 blue crabs (Blackmon and Eggleston, 2001) suggests that benthic emigration among J1-J2 blue crabs was greater than planktonic emigration; for J3-J5 stages benthic and planktonic emigration were nearly equal. This study demonstrates the potentially large role of emigration in recruitment processes and patterns of early juvenile blue crabs, and illustrates how juvenile size, juvenile density, and time of day can affect mortality and emigration rates as well as total loss and colonization. The components of po

Occurrence of graft-versus-host disease increases mortality after umbilical cord blood transplantation for acute myeloid leukaemia: a report from Eurocord and the ALWP of the EBMT.

PubMed

Baron, F; Ruggeri, A; Beohou, E; Labopin, M; Mohty, M; Sanz, J; Vigouroux, S; Furst, S; Bosi, A; Chevallier, P; Cornelissen, J J; Michallet, M; Sierra, J; Karakasis, D; Savani, B N; Gluckman, E; Nagler, A

2018-02-01

The efficacy of umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) as treatment for acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) relies on immune-mediated graft-versus-leukaemia effects. Previous studies have suggested a strong association between graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) occurrence and graft-versus-leukaemia effects after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Here, we evaluated the kinetics of relapse rate in correlation with GVHD occurrence after UCBT. The kinetics of relapse rate over time in correlation to GVHD occurrence were assessed by calculating the relapse rate per patient-year within sequential 90-day intervals. The impact of GVHD on relapse and mortality was further studied in multivariate Cox models handling GVHD as a time-dependent covariate. The study included data from 1068 patients given single (n = 567) or double (n = 501) UCBT. The proportion of patients with grade II, III and IV acute GVHD was 20%, 7% and 4%, respectively. At 2 years, the cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD was 42%, the cumulative incidence of relapse was 32%, and overall survival was 32% as well. Relapse rates declined gradually over time during the first 30 months after transplantation. There was a possible suggestion that grade II-IV acute (HR = 0.8, P = 0.1) and chronic (HR = 0.65, P = 0.1) GVHD decreased relapse risk. However, grade II-IV acute GVHD significantly increased early (the first 18 months after UCBT) mortality (HR = 1.3, P = 0.02), whilst chronic GVHD increased each early (HR = 2.7, P < 0.001) and late (HR = 4.9, P < 0.001) mortality after UCBT. The occurrence of grade II-IV acute or chronic GVHD each increases overall mortality after UCBT for AML mitigating the possible graft-versus-leukemia effect of GVHD. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012.

PubMed

Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

2016-04-18

Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts--Cohort I 1890-1919; Cohort II 1920-1959--and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: Insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient

Treesearch

Michael J. Clifford; Patrick D. Royer; Neil S. Cobb; David D. Breshears; Paulette L. Ford

2013-01-01

Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed....

Natural-trap ursid mortality and the Kurtén Response.

PubMed

Wolverton, Steve

2006-05-01

Ursid mortality data have long been used to evaluate associations between cave-bear remains (Ursus deningeri and U. spelaeus) and hominin (Homo sp.) remains. Typically, such ursid assemblages produce mortality patterns that indicate that juvenile and old bears died during hibernation, a pattern that is used to suggest that humans and bears occupied the same caves at different times. However, a different kind of mortality pattern can also be used to suggest human influence on cave bears, particularly under circumstances when bears and humans compete for habitat. In particular, data from Lawson Cave and Jerry Long Cave, Missouri indicate that young-adult North American black bears (Ursus americanus) are prone to capture in natural-trap caves. Similar faunal data from Sima de los Huesos in Spain, where cave-bear and hominin remains are found in the same deposit, might also suggest that the bears died from falling into a natural trap. It is concluded that mortality analysis of ursid remains from caves is a useful tool with which to evaluate accumulation histories of cave deposits and relations between humans, artifacts, and cave-bear remains. In particular, ursid mortality data are relevant to the Kurtén Response, a hypothesis reiterated in the recent literature that implicates human encroachment on ursid habitat (e.g., cave den sites) as a potential cause in cave-bear extinction.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Neumann, Mathias; Mues, Volker; Moreno, Adam; Hasenauer, Hubert; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical Features of Kidney Transplant Recipients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Freitas, Flávio Geraldo Rezende; Lombardi, Fábio; Pacheco, Eduardo Souza; Sandes-Freitas, Tainá Veras de; Viana, Laila Almeida; Junior, Hélio Tedesco-Silva; Medina-Pestana, José Osmar; Bafi, Antônio Tonete; Machado, Flavia Ribeiro

2018-03-01

There is a paucity of data regarding the complications in kidney transplant patients who may require intensive care unit (ICU) management, despite being the most common solid organ transplant worldwide. To identify the main reasons for ICU admission and to determine the factors associated with hospital mortality in kidney transplant recipients. This single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted between September 2013 and June 2014, including all consecutive kidney transplant patients requiring ICU admission. We collected data on patient demographics, transplant characteristics, clinical data, and prognostic scores. The independent determinants of hospital mortality were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis. We also assessed the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. We analyzed data from 413 patients, the majority of whom were admitted late after renal transplantation (1169 days; 63-3003 days). The main reason for admission was sepsis (33.2%), followed by cardiovascular disease (16%). Age (odds ratio [OR] 1.05, confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09), SAPS 3 score (OR 1.04, CI, 1.01-1.08), the need for mechanical ventilation (OR 26.47, CI, 10.30-68.08), and vasopressor use (OR 3.34, CI, 1.37-8.13) were independently associated with hospital mortality. The performance of SAPS 3 and APACHE II scores was poor in this population and overestimated the mortality rates. Sepsis was the main reason for ICU admission in kidney transplant recipients, followed by cardiovascular disease. Age and disease severity were associated with hospital mortality.

Trends in young adult mortality in three European cities: Barcelona, Bologna and Munich, 1986-1995

PubMed Central

Borrell, C; Pasarin, M; Cirera, E; Klutke, P; Pipitone, E; Plasencia, A

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE—In recent decades, in most European countries young adult mortality has risen, or at best has remained stable. The aim of this study was to describe trends in mortality attributable to the principal causes of death: AIDS, drug overdose, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents, among adults aged between 15 and 34 years in three European cities (Barcelona, Bologna and Munich), over the period 1986 to 1995.
METHODS—The population studied consisted of all deaths that occurred between 1986 and 1995 among residents of Barcelona, Bologna and Munich aged from 15 to 34 years. Information about deaths was obtained from mortality registers. The study variables were sex, age, the underlying cause of death and year of death. Causes of death studied were: drug overdose, AIDS, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents. Age standardised mortality rates (direct adjustment) were obtained in all three cities for the age range 15-34. To investigate trends in mortality over the study period Poisson regression models were fitted, obtaining the average relative risk (RR) associated with a one year increment.
RESULTS—Young adult mortality increased among men in Barcelona and Bologna (RR per year: 1.04, 95% confidence intervals (95%CI): 1.03, 1.06 in Barcelona and RR:1.03, 95%CI:1.01, 1.06 in Bologna) and among women in Barcelona (RR:1.02, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04), with a change in the pattern of the main causes of death attributable to the increase in AIDS and drug overdose mortality. In Munich, the pattern did not change as much, suicides being the main cause of death during the 10 years studied, although they have been decreasing since 1988 (RR:0.92, 95%CI:0.88, 0.96 for men and 0.81, 95%CI: 0.75-0.87 for women).
CONCLUSION—The increase in AIDS mortality observed in the three European cities in the mid-80s and mid-90s has yielded to substantial changes in the pattern of the main causes of death at young ages in Barcelona and Bologna. Munich presented a more stable pattern, with suicide as the main cause of death.


Keywords: young adult mortality; AIDS; drug overdose; suicide; traffic accidents PMID:11449016

Geographic analysis of low birthweight and infant mortality in Michigan using automated zoning methodology

PubMed Central

Grady, Sue C; Enander, Helen

2009-01-01

Background Infant mortality is a major public health problem in the State of Michigan and the United States. The primary adverse reproductive outcome underlying infant mortality is low birthweight. Visualizing and exploring the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant mortality rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios is important for generating mechanistic hypotheses, targeting high-risk neighborhoods for monitoring and implementing maternal and child health intervention and prevention programs and evaluating the need for health care services. This study investigates the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant mortality in the State of Michigan using automated zone matching (AZM) methodology and minimum case and population threshold recommendations provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau to calculate stable rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios at the Zip Code (n = 896) level. The results from this analysis are validated using SaTScan. Vital statistics birth (n = 370,587) and linked infant death (n = 2,972) records obtained from the Michigan Department of Community Health and aggregated for the years 2004 to 2006 are utilized. Results For a majority of Zip Codes the relative standard errors (RSEs) of rates calculated prior to AZM were greater than 20%. Spurious results were the result of too few case and birth counts. Applying AZM with a target population of 25 cases and minimum threshold of 20 cases resulted in the reconstruction of zones with at least 50 births and RSEs of rates 20–22% and below respectively, demonstrating the stability reliability of these new estimates. Other AZM parameters included homogeneity constraints on maternal race and maximum shape compactness of zones to minimize potential confounding. AZM identified areas with elevated low birthweight and infant mortality rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios. Most but not all of these areas were also detected by SaTScan. Conclusion Understanding the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant deaths in Michigan was an important first step in conducting a geographic evaluation of the State's reported high infant mortality rates. AZM proved to be a useful tool for visualizing and exploring the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant deaths for public health surveillance. Future research should also consider AZM as a tool for health services research. PMID:19224644

Geographic analysis of low birthweight and infant mortality in Michigan using automated zoning methodology.

PubMed

Grady, Sue C; Enander, Helen

2009-02-18

Infant mortality is a major public health problem in the State of Michigan and the United States. The primary adverse reproductive outcome underlying infant mortality is low birthweight. Visualizing and exploring the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant mortality rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios is important for generating mechanistic hypotheses, targeting high-risk neighborhoods for monitoring and implementing maternal and child health intervention and prevention programs and evaluating the need for health care services. This study investigates the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant mortality in the State of Michigan using automated zone matching (AZM) methodology and minimum case and population threshold recommendations provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau to calculate stable rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios at the Zip Code (n = 896) level. The results from this analysis are validated using SaTScan. Vital statistics birth (n = 370,587) and linked infant death (n = 2,972) records obtained from the Michigan Department of Community Health and aggregated for the years 2004 to 2006 are utilized. For a majority of Zip Codes the relative standard errors (RSEs) of rates calculated prior to AZM were greater than 20%. Spurious results were the result of too few case and birth counts. Applying AZM with a target population of 25 cases and minimum threshold of 20 cases resulted in the reconstruction of zones with at least 50 births and RSEs of rates 20-22% and below respectively, demonstrating the stability reliability of these new estimates. Other AZM parameters included homogeneity constraints on maternal race and maximum shape compactness of zones to minimize potential confounding. AZM identified areas with elevated low birthweight and infant mortality rates and standardized incidence and mortality ratios. Most but not all of these areas were also detected by SaTScan. Understanding the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant deaths in Michigan was an important first step in conducting a geographic evaluation of the State's reported high infant mortality rates. AZM proved to be a useful tool for visualizing and exploring the spatial patterns of low birthweight and infant deaths for public health surveillance. Future research should also consider AZM as a tool for health services research.

Climate change and heat waves in Paris and London metropolitan areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dousset, B.

2010-12-01

Summer warming trends in Western and Central Europe and in Mediterranean regions are increasing the incidence, intensity, and duration of heat waves. Those extreme events are especially deadly in large cities, owing to high population densities, surface characteristics, heat island effects, anthropogenic heat and pollutants. In August 2003, a persistent anticyclone over Western Europe generated a heat wave of exceptional strength and duration with an estimated death toll of 70,000, including 4678 in the Paris region. A series of NOAA-AVHRR satellite thermal images over the Paris and London metropolitan areas, were used to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST) and its related mortality. In the Paris region, LSTs were merged with land use and cover data to identify risk areas, and thermal indicators were produced at the addresses of ~ 500 elderly people to assess diurnal heat exposure. Results indicate: (i) contrasting night time and daytime heat island patterns related to land use and surface characteristics; (ii) the relation between night-time heat islands and heat waves intensity; (iii) the impact of elevated minimal temperatures on excess mortality, with a 0.5 °C increase doubling the risk of death, (in the temperature range of the heatwave); iv) the correlation between the spatial distribution of highest night-time LSTs and that of highest mortality ratios; and v) the significant impact of urban parks in the partitioning between latent and sensible surface heat fluxes, despite a prior warm and dry spring. Near-real time satellite monitoring of heat waves in urban areas improve our understanding of the LST processes and spatial variability, and of the related heat stress and mortality. These observations provide criteria for warning systems, contingency policies and planning, and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

The quest for a general theory of aging and longevity.

PubMed

Gavrilov, Leonid A; Gavrilova, Natalia S

2003-07-16

Extensive studies of phenomena related to aging have produced many diverse findings, which require a general theoretical framework to be organized into a comprehensive body of knowledge. As demonstrated by the success of evolutionary theories of aging, quite general theoretical considerations can be very useful when applied to research on aging. In this theoretical study, we attempt to gain insight into aging by applying a general theory of systems failure known as reliability theory. Considerations of this theory lead to the following conclusions: (i) Redundancy is a concept of crucial importance for understanding aging, particularly the systemic nature of aging. Systems that are redundant in numbers of irreplaceable elements deteriorate (that is, age) over time, even if they are built of elements that do not themselves age. (ii) An apparent aging rate or expression of aging is higher for systems that have higher levels of redundancy. (iii) Redundancy exhaustion over the life course explains a number of observations about mortality, including mortality convergence at later life (when death rates are becoming relatively similar at advanced ages for different populations of the same species) as well as late-life mortality deceleration, leveling off, and mortality plateaus. (iv) Living organisms apparently contain a high load of initial damage from the early stages of development, and therefore their life span and aging patterns may be sensitive to early-life conditions that determine this initial damage load. Thus, the reliability theory provides a parsimonious explanation for many important aging-related phenomena and suggests a number of interesting testable predictions. We therefore suggest adding the reliability theory to the arsenal of methodological approaches applied to research on aging.

Relationships between cancer pattern, country income and geographical region in Asia.

PubMed

Ng, Chirk Jenn; Teo, Chin Hai; Abdullah, Nurdiana; Tan, Wei Phin; Tan, Hui Meng

2015-09-03

Cancer incidence and mortality varies across region, sex and country's economic status. While most studies focused on global trends, this study aimed to describe and analyse cancer incidence and mortality in Asia, focusing on cancer site, sex, region and income status. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates of cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2012 database. Cancer mortality to incidence ratios (MIRs) were calculated to represent cancer survival. The data were analysed based on the four regions in Asia and income. Cancer incidence rate is lower in Asia compared to the West but for MIR, it is the reverse. In Asia, the most common cancers in men are lung, stomach, liver, colorectal and oesophageal cancers while the most common cancers in women are breast, lung, cervical, colorectal and stomach cancers. The MIRs are the highest in lung, liver and stomach cancers and the lowest in colorectal, breast and prostate cancers. Eastern and Western Asia have a higher incidence of cancer compared to South-Eastern and South-Central Asia but this pattern is the reverse for MIR. Cancer incidence rate increases with country income particularly in colorectal and breast cancers but the pattern is the opposite for MIR. This study confirms that there is a wide variation in cancer incidence and mortality across Asia. This study is the first step towards documenting and explaining the changing cancer pattern in Asia in comparison to the rest of the world.

Drowning deaths between 1861 and 2000 in Victoria, Australia

PubMed Central

Ozanne-Smith, Joan

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in the state of Victoria, Australia, and to describe the historical context in which the decrease occurred. Methods We obtained data on drowning deaths and population statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and its predecessors for the period 1861 to 2000. From these data, we calculated drowning death rates per 100 000 population per year, by gender and age. We reviewed primary and secondary historical resources, such as government and newspaper archives, books and the Internet, to identify changes or events in the state that may have affected drowning mortality. Findings From 1861 to 2000, at least 18 070 people drowned in Victoria. Male drowning rates were higher than those for females in all years and for all ages. Both sexes experienced the highest drowning rate in 1863 (79.5 male deaths per 100 000 population and 18.8 female death per 100 000 population). The lowest drowning rate was documented in 2000 (1.4 male deaths per 100 000 population and 0.3 female deaths per 100 000 population). The reduction patterns of drowning mortality occurred within a historical context of factors that directly affected drowning mortality, such as the improvement in people’s water safety skills, or those that incidentally affected drowning mortality, like infrastructure development. Conclusion We identified patterns of reduction in drowning mortality, both in males and females and across age groups. These patterns could be linked to events and factors that happened in Victoria during this period. These findings may have relevance to current developing communities. PMID:28250530

Evidence for localised HIV related micro-epidemics associated with the decentralised provision of antiretroviral treatment in rural South Africa: a spatio-temporal analysis of changing mortality patterns (2007-2010).

PubMed

Mee, Paul; Collinson, Mark A; Madhavan, Sangeetha; Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Tollman, Stephen M; Byass, Peter; Kahn, Kathleen

2014-06-01

In this study we analysed the spatial and temporal changes in patterns of mortality over a period when antiretroviral therapy (ART) was rolled out in a rural region of north-eastern South Africa. Previous studies have identified localised concentrated HIV related sub-epidemics and recommended that micro-level analyses be carried out in order to direct focused interventions. Data from an ongoing health and socio-demographic surveillance study was used in the analysis. The follow-up was divided into two periods, 2007-2008 and 2009-2010, representing the times immediately before and after the effects on mortality of the decentralised ART provision from a newly established local health centre would be expected to be evident. The study population at the start of the analysis was approximately 73 000 individuals. Data were aggregated by village and also using a 2 × 2 km grid. We identified villages, grid squares and regions in the site where mortality rates within each time period or rate ratios between the periods differed significantly from the overall trends. We used clustering techniques to identify cause-specific mortality hotspots. Comparing the two periods, there was a 30% decrease in age and gender standardised adult HIV-related and TB (HIV/TB) mortality with no change in mortality due to other causes. There was considerable spatial heterogeneity in the mortality patterns. Areas separated by 2 to 4 km with very different epidemic trajectories were identified. There was evidence that the impact of ART in reducing HIV/TB mortality was greatest in communities with higher mortality rates in the earlier period. This study shows the value of conducting high resolution spatial analyses in order to understand how local micro-epidemics contribute to changes seen over a wider area. Such analyses can support targeted interventions.

When do changes in cancer survival mean progress? The insight from population incidence and mortality.

PubMed

Cho, Hyunsoon; Mariotto, Angela B; Schwartz, Lisa M; Luo, Jun; Woloshin, Steven

2014-11-01

It is often assumed that increases in cancer survival reflect true progress against cancer. This is true when these increases are accompanied by decreased burden of disease: Fewer people being diagnosed or dying from cancer (ie, decreased incidence and mortality). But increased survival can also occur even when incidence is increasing and mortality is unchanged. To use trends in cancer burden-incidence and mortality-to illustrate when changes in survival reflect true progress. Using data from 1975 to 2010 collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (incidence, survival) and the National Center for Health Statistics (mortality), we analyzed US trends in five-year relative survival, age-adjusted incidence, and mortality for selected cancers to identify patterns that do and do not reflect progress. Among the nine common cancers examined, survival increased in seven, and changed little or not at all for two. In some cases, increased survival was accompanied by decreased burden of disease, reflecting true progress. For example, from 1975 to 2010, five-year survival for colon cancer patients improved (from 48% to 68%) while cancer burden fell: Fewer cases (incidence decreased from 60 to 41 per 100,000) and fewer deaths (mortality decreased from 28 to 16 per 100,000), a pattern explained by both increased early detection (with removal of cancer precursors) and more effective treatment. In other cases, however, increased survival did not reflect true progress. In melanoma, kidney, and thyroid cancer, five-year survival increased but incidence increased with no change in mortality. This pattern suggests overdiagnosis from increased early detection, an increase in cancer burden. Changes in survival must be interpreted in the context of incidence and mortality. Increased survival only represents progress when accompanied by a reduction in incidence, mortality, or ideally both. Published by Oxford University Press 2014.

Suicide Compared to Other Causes of Mortality in Physicians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torre, Dario M.; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Meoni, Lucy A.; Young, J. Hunter; Klag, Michael J.; Ford, Daniel E.

2005-01-01

Physicians frequently are early adopters of healthy behaviors based on their knowledge and economic resources. The mortality patterns of physicians in the United States, particularly suicide, have not been rigorously described for over a decade. Previous studies have shown lower all-cause mortality among physicians yet reported conflicting results…

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Methods Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. Results 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813–0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725–0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). Conclusions We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group. PMID:27824941

Patterns and causes of observed piñon pine mortality in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meddens, Arjan J.H.; Hicke, Jeff H.; Macalady, Alison K.; Buotte, P.C.; Cowles, T.R.; Allen, Craig D.

2015-01-01

Recently, widespread piñon pine die-off occurred in the southwestern United States. Here we synthesize observational studies of this event and compare findings to expected relationships with biotic and abiotic factors. Agreement exists on the occurrence of drought, presence of bark beetles and increased mortality of larger trees. However, studies disagree about the influences of stem density, elevation and other factors, perhaps related to study design, location and impact of extreme drought. Detailed information about bark beetles is seldom reported and their role is poorly understood. Our analysis reveals substantial limits to our knowledge regarding the processes that produce mortality patterns across space and time, indicating a poor ability to forecast mortality in response to expected increases in future droughts.

Mortality Experience of the AFL-CIO United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, 1969-1970 and 1972-1973. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milham, Samuel, Jr.

The mortality experience of the AFL-CIO United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America members was examined to determine current mortality patterns in a large wood-exposed population and a possible wood-cancer relationship. The data consisted of union members' mortality data (death claims and non-claim deaths) from 1971-1973 along with…

Childhood lupus nephritis: 12 years of experience from a developing country's perspective.

PubMed

Samanta, Moumita; Nandi, Madhumita; Mondal, Rakesh; Hazra, Avijit; Sarkar, Sumatra; Sabui, Tapas; Kundu, Chanchal Kumar; Biswas, Arnab

2017-09-01

To assess the long-term outcome of lupus nephritis in children with systemic lupus erythematosus followed up over 12 years at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Eastern India. This is a retrospective observational study of the clinicopathological presentation, management, and outcome in 46 children with lupus nephritis over a period of 12 years at a tertiary teaching hospital in Eastern India. Mortality was compared between different lupus classes and therapy groups with Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test. The incidence of lupus nephritis was 58.97% [95% confidence interval (CI) 48.06%-59.89%] with the mean age at presentation being 10.2±2.43 years (range 5.5-14.5) years. Majority belonged to class IV (30.43%), followed by class II (26.91%), class III (23.91), and class V (8.70%). Outcome analysis of children with lupus nephritis over 12 years revealed that 24 (52.17%) achieved complete remission of disease activity, 5 attained partial remission, 4 continued to have active disease, 5 developed end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and 8 died. Overall mortality thus observed was 17.39% with septicemia in the background of ESRD being the commonest cause. No significant difference in mortality was observed between different lupus nephritis classes or therapy arm groups. The study throws light on various aspects of lupus nephritis and their long-term outcome patterns in children from developing countries such as India.

Pregnancy outcome in women with Eisenmenger's syndrome: a case series from west China.

PubMed

Duan, Ruiqi; Xu, Xiumei; Wang, Xiaodong; Yu, Haiyan; You, Yong; Liu, Xinghui; Xing, Aiyun; Zhou, Rong; Xi, Mingrong

2016-11-16

Eisenmenger's syndrome (ES) consists of pulmonary hypertension with a reversed or bidirectional shunt at the atrioventricular, or aortopulmonary level. The cardiovascular changes that occur during the pregnancy contribute to the high maternal morbidity and mortality in patients with ES. This study is to assess maternal and fetal outcomes in patients with ES. This study is a retrospective analysis of 11 pregnancies in women with ES who delivered at a tertiary care center in west China between 2010 and 2014. Cases were divided into group I (maternal survival) and group II (maternal death). Clinical data were noted and analyzed. All ES patients presented with severe pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Four maternal deaths were recorded (maternal mortality of 36%). Only one pregnancy continued to term. Ventricular septal defect diameter in group II was larger than that in group I (2.93 ± 0.76 cm vs. 1.90 ± 0.54 cm, p < 0.05). Arterial oxygen saturation and pre-delivery arterial oxygen tension during oxygen inhalation were significantly lower in group II (p < 0.05). Pulmonary arterial blood pressure (PABP) in both groups were high while ejection fractions (EF) were significantly lower in group II (p < 0.05). The incidence of pre-delivery heart failure in group II was substantially higher than in survivors (100 vs.14.3%, p < 0.05). Fetal complications were exceptionally high: preterm delivery (88%), small for gestational age (83%), fetal mortality (27%) and neonatal mortality (25%). In west China,the perinatal outcome of pregnant women with ES is poor, especially when complicated with high pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Pregnancy remains strongly contraindicated in ES. Effective contraception is essential, and the option of terminating pregnancy in the first trimester should be presented to pregnant women with ES.

Paths to health equity: Local area variation in progress toward eliminating breast cancer mortality disparities, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Malhotra, Khusdeep; Reese, Leroy; McRoy, Luceta; Baltrus, Peter; Caplan, Lee; Levine, Robert S

2015-08-15

US breast cancer deaths have been declining since 1989, but African American women are still more likely than white women to die of breast cancer. Black/white disparities in breast cancer mortality rate ratios have actually been increasing. Across 762 US counties with enough deaths to generate reliable rates, county-level, age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rates were examined for women who were 35 to 74 years old during the period of 1989-2010. Twenty-two years of mortality data generated twenty 3-year rolling average data points, each centered on a specific year from 1990 to 2009. Mixed linear models were used to group each county into 1 of 4 mutually exclusive trend patterns. The most recent 3-year average black breast cancer mortality rate for each county was also categorized as being worse or not worse than the breast cancer mortality rate for the total US population. More than half of the counties (54%) showed persistent, unchanging disparities. Roughly 1 in 4 (24%) had a divergent pattern of worsening black/white disparities. However, 10.5% of the counties sustained racial equality over the 20-year period, and 11.7% of the counties actually showed a converging pattern from high disparities to greater equality. Twenty-three counties had 2008-2010 black mortality rates better than the US average mortality rate. Disparities are not inevitable. Four US counties have sustained both optimal and equitable black outcomes as measured by both absolute (better than the US average) and relative benchmarks (equality in the local black/white rate ratio) for decades, and 6 counties have shown a path from disparities to health equity. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-03-05

Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Paths to Health Equity – Local Area Variation in Progress toward Eliminating Breast Cancer Mortality Disparities, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Malhotra, Khusdeep; Reese, Leroy; McRoy, Luceta; Baltrus, Peter; Caplan, Lee; Levine, Robert S

2015-01-01

Background U.S. breast cancer deaths have been declining since 1989, but African American women are still more likely than white women to die of breast cancer. Black-white disparities in breast cancer mortality rate-ratios have actually been increasing. Methods Across 762 U.S. counties with enough deaths to generate reliable rates, we examined county-level age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rates for women aged 35–74 during the period 1989–2010. Twenty-two years of mortality data generated 20 three-year rolling average data points, each centered on a specific year from 1990 – 2009. We used mixed linear models to group each county into one of four mutually exclusive trend patterns. We also categorized the most recent three-year average black breast cancer mortality rate for each county as being worse than or not worse than the breast cancer mortality rate for the total U.S. population. Results More than half of counties (54%) showed persistent, unchanging disparities. Roughly one in four (24%) had a divergent pattern of worsening black-white disparities. However, 10.5% of counties sustained racial equality over the 20-year period, and 11.7% of counties actually showed a converging pattern from high disparities to greater equality. Twenty-three counties had 2008–2010 black mortality rates better than the U.S. average mortality rate. Conclusion Disparities are not inevitable. Four U.S. counties have sustained both optimal and equitable black outcomes, as measured by both absolute (better than US average) and relative (equality in local black-white rate-ratio) benchmarks for decades, while six counties have shown a path from disparities to health equity. PMID:25906833

Validation of the LOD score compared with APACHE II score in prediction of the hospital outcome in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Khwannimit, Bodin

2008-01-01

The Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (LOD) is an organ dysfunction score that can predict hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to validate the performance of the LOD score compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in a mixed intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary referral university hospital in Thailand. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24 month period from July1, 2004 until June 30, 2006. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H statistic. The overall fit of the model was evaluated by the Brier's score. Overall, 1,429 patients were enrolled during the study period. The mortality in the ICU was 20.9% and in the hospital was 27.9%. The median ICU and hospital lengths of stay were 3 and 18 days, respectively, for all patients. Both models showed excellent discrimination. The AUROC for the LOD and APACHE II were 0.860 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.838-0.882] and 0.898 (95% Cl = 0.879-0.917), respectively. The LOD score had perfect calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 10 (p = 0.44). However, the APACHE II had poor calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 75.69 (p < 0.001). Brier's score showed the overall fit for both models were 0.123 (95%Cl = 0.107-0.141) and 0.114 (0.098-0.132) for the LOD and APACHE II, respectively. Thus, the LOD score was found to be accurate for predicting hospital mortality for general critically ill patients in Thailand.

[Prognostic estimation in critical patients. Validation of a new and very simple system of prognostic estimation of survival in an intensive care unit].

PubMed

Abizanda, R; Padron, A; Vidal, B; Mas, S; Belenguer, A; Madero, J; Heras, A

2006-04-01

To make the validation of a new system of prognostic estimation of survival in critical patients (EPEC) seen in a multidisciplinar Intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective analysis of a patient cohort seen in the ICU of a multidisciplinar Intensive Medicine Service of a reference teaching hospital with 19 beds. Four hundred eighty four patients admitted consecutively over 6 months in 2003. Data collection of a basic minimum data set that includes patient identification data (gender, age), reason for admission and their origin, prognostic estimation of survival by EPEC, MPM II 0 and SAPS II (the latter two considered as gold standard). Mortality was evaluated on hospital discharge. EPEC validation was done with analysis of its discriminating capacity (ROC curve), calibration of its prognostic capacity (Hosmer Lemeshow C test), resolution of the 2 x 2 Contingency tables around different probability values (20, 50, 70 and mean value of prognostic estimation). The standardized mortality rate (SMR) for each one of the methods was calculated. Linear regression of the EPEC regarding the MPM II 0 and SAPS II was established and concordance analyses were done (Bland-Altman test) of the prediction of mortality by the three systems. In spite of an apparently good linear correlation, similar accuracy of prediction and discrimination capacity, EPEC is not well-calibrated (no likelihood of death greater than 50%) and the concordance analyses show that more than 10% of the pairs were outside the 95% confidence interval. In spite of its ease of application and calculation and of incorporating delay of admission in ICU as a variable, EPEC does not offer any predictive advantage on MPM II 0 or SAPS II, and its predictions adapt to reality worse.

Hips don't lie: Waist-to-hip ratio in trauma patients.

PubMed

Joseph, Bellal; Zangbar, Bardiya; Haider, Ansab Abbas; Kulvatunyou, Naroung; Khalil, Mazhar; Tang, Andrew; O'Keeffe, Terence; Friese, Randall S; Orouji Jokar, Tahereh; Vercruysse, Gary; Latifi, Rifat; Rhee, Peter

2015-12-01

Obesity measured by body mass index (BMI) is known to be associated with worse outcomes in trauma patients. Recent studies have assessed the impact of distribution of body fat measured by waist-hip ratio (WHR) on outcomes in nontrauma patients. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of distribution of body fat (WHR) on outcomes in trauma patients. A 6-month (June to November 2013) prospective cohort analysis of all admitted trauma patients was performed at our Level 1 trauma center. WHR was measured in each patient on the first day of hospital admission. Patients were stratified into two groups: patients with WHR of 1 or greater and patients with WHR of less than 1. Outcome measures were complications and in-hospital mortality. Complications were defined as infectious, pulmonary, and renal complications. Regression and correlation analyses were performed. A total of 240 patients were enrolled, of which 28.8% patients (n = 69) had WHR of 1 or greater. WHR had a weak correlation with BMI (R = 0.231, R = 0.481). Eighteen percent (n = 43) of the patients developed complications, and the mortality rate was 10% (n = 24). Patients with a WHR of 1 or greater were more likely to develop in-hospital complications (32% vs. 13%, p = 0.001) and had a higher mortality rate (24% vs. 4%, p = 0.001) compared with the patients with a WHR of less than 1. In multivariate analysis, a WHR of 1 or greater was an independent predictor for the development of complications (odds ratio, 3.1; 95% confidence interval 1.08-9.2; p = 0.03) and mortality (odds ratio, 13.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-70; p = 0.04). Distribution of body fat as measured by WHR independently predicts mortality and complications in trauma patients. WHR is better than BMI in predicting adverse outcomes in trauma patients. Assessing the fat distribution pattern in trauma patients may help improve patient outcomes through focused targeted intervention. Prognostic study, level II.

Risk factors of mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Pan; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Wang, Nai-Yu; Wu, Alice Y; Sun, Fang-Ju; Chow, Shan-Fan; Chen, Te-Li; Yan, Tsong-Rong

2016-12-01

Identification of risks of mortality for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), with early implementation of an appropriate therapy, is crucial for the patients' outcome. The aim of this study was to survey mortality risk factors in 182 patients with CRAB bacteremia in a medical center in Taiwan. A total of 182 isolates of CRAB bacteremia were collected from 2009 to 2012 in Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan These isolates were identified by using the genotypic method. Risk of attributable mortality analysis was carried out with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 182 CRAB isolates belonged to 38 different pulsotypes. The attributable mortality rate of the 182 patients was 58.24%. The risk factors for attributable mortality included intensive care unit stay [hazard ratio (HR): 2.27; p = 0.011], an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of >20 (HR: 2.19; p < 0.001), respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia (HR: 3.40; p < 0.001), and previous use of ceftriaxone (HR: 2.51; p = 0.011). The appropriateness of antimicrobial therapy was 18.87% (20/106) in the mortality group versus 88.16% (67/76) in the survivor group (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of CRAB to colistin was 100% and to tigecycline was 40.11%. The risk factors for mortality for CRAB included intensive care unit stay, a high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia, and previous use of ceftriaxone. Early implementation of an antimicrobial agent that had the highest in vitro activity against CRAB in patients at risk of CRAB bacteremia and high mortality may improve their outcome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Patterns and Drivers of Tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: Climatic Effects Are Modified by Competition

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Lines, Emily R.; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Zavala, Miguel A.; Coomes, David A.

2013-01-01

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions. PMID:23451096

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Asian Americans (2003–2010)

PubMed Central

Jose, Powell O.; Frank, Ariel TH; Kapphahn, Kristopher I.; Goldstein, Benjamin A.; Eggleston, Karen; Hastings, Katherine G.; Cullen, Mark R.; Palaniappan, Latha P

2014-01-01

Background Asian Americans are a rapidly growing racial/ethnic group in the United States. Our current understanding of Asian-American cardiovascular disease mortality patterns is distorted by the aggregation of distinct subgroups. Objectives To examine heart disease and stroke mortality rates in Asian-American subgroups to determine racial/ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease mortality within the United States. Methods We examined heart disease and stroke mortality rates for the 6 largest Asian-American subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) from 2003–2010. U.S. death records were used to identify race/ethnicity and cause of death by ICD-10 coding. Using both U.S. Census and death record data, standardized mortality ratios (SMR), relative SMRs (rSMR), and proportional mortality ratios (PMR) were calculated for each sex and ethnic group relative to Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). Results 10,442,034 death records were examined. While NHW men and women had the highest overall mortality rates, Asian Indian men and women and Filipino men had greater proportionate mortality burden from ischemic heart disease. The proportionate mortality burden of hypertensive heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, especially hemorrhagic stroke, was higher in every Asian-American subgroup compared to NHWs. Conclusions The heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease mortality patterns among diverse Asian-American subgroups calls attention to the need for more research to help direct more specific treatment and prevention efforts, in particular with hypertension and stroke, to reduce health disparities for this growing population. PMID:25500233

Empirically-derived food patterns and the risk of total mortality and cardiovascular events in the PREDIMED study.

PubMed

Martínez-González, Miguel A; Zazpe, Itziar; Razquin, Cristina; Sánchez-Tainta, Ana; Corella, Dolores; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Toledo, Estefanía; Ros, Emilio; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Recondo, Javier; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Buil-Cosiales, Pilar; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Pinto, Xavier; Schröder, Helmut; Tur, Josep A; Sorli, José V; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa M; Estruch, Ramón

2015-10-01

There is little evidence on post hoc-derived dietary patterns (DP) and all-cause mortality in Southern-European populations. Furthermore, the potential effect modification of a DP by a nutritional intervention has not been sufficiently assessed. We assessed the association between a posteriori defined baseline major DP and total mortality or cardiovascular events within each of the three arms of a large primary prevention trial (PREDIMED) where participants were randomized to two active interventions with Mediterranean-type diets or to a control group (allocated to a low-fat diet). We followed-up 7216 participants for a median of 4.3 years. A validated 137-item food-frequency questionnaire was administered. Baseline DP were ascertained through factor analysis based on 34 predefined groups. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality across quartiles of DP within each of the three arms of the trial. We identified two major baseline DP: the first DP was rich in red and processed meats, alcohol, refined grains and whole dairy products and was labeled Western dietary pattern (WDP). The second DP corresponded to a "Mediterranean-type" dietary pattern (MDP). During follow-up, 328 participants died. After controlling for potential confounders, higher baseline adherence to the MDP was associated with lower risk of CVD (adjusted HR for fourth vs. first quartile: 0.52; 95% CI (Confidence Interval): 0.36, 0.74; p-trend <0.001) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.75; p-trend <0.001), regardless of the allocated arm of the trial. An increasing mortality rate was found across increasing quartiles of the WDP in the control group (allocated to a low-fat diet), though the linear trend was not statistically significant (p = 0.098). Higher adherence to an empirically-derived MDP at baseline was associated with a reduced risk of CVD and mortality in the PREDIMED trial regardless of the allocated arm. The WDP was not associated with higher risk of mortality or cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Associations of key diet-quality indexes with mortality in the Multiethnic Cohort: the Dietary Patterns Methods Project.

PubMed

Harmon, Brook E; Boushey, Carol J; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Ettienne, Reynolette; Reedy, Jill; Wilkens, Lynne R; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian E; Kolonel, Laurence N

2015-03-01

Healthy dietary patterns have been linked positively with health and longevity. However, prospective studies in diverse populations in the United States addressing dietary patterns and mortality are limited. We assessed the ability of the following 4 diet-quality indexes [the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010), the Alternative HEI-2010 (AHEI-2010), the alternate Mediterranean diet score (aMED), and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)] to predict the reduction in risk of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. White, African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, and Latino adults (n = 215,782) from the Multiethnic Cohort completed a quantitative food-frequency questionnaire. Scores for each dietary index were computed and divided into quintiles for men and women. Mortality was documented over 13-18 y of follow-up. HRs and 95% CIs were computed by using adjusted Cox models. High HEI-2010, AHEI-2010, aMED, and DASH scores were all inversely associated with risk of mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer in both men and women (P-trend < 0.0001 for all models). For men, the HEI-2010 was consistently associated with a reduction in risk of mortality for all causes (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.79), CVD (HR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.81), and cancer (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.83) when lowest and highest quintiles were compared. In women, the AHEI and aMED showed large reductions for all-cause mortality (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.82), the AHEI showed large reductions for CVD (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.83), and the aMED showed large reductions for cancer (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.76, 0. 92). These results, in a US multiethnic population, suggest that consuming a dietary pattern that achieves a high diet-quality index score is associated with lower risk of mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer in adult men and women. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Geographic distribution of trauma centers and injury-related mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Brown, Joshua B; Rosengart, Matthew R; Billiar, Timothy R; Peitzman, Andrew B; Sperry, Jason L

2016-01-01

Regionalized trauma care improves outcomes; however, access to care is not uniform across the United States. The objective was to evaluate whether geographic distribution of trauma centers correlates with injury mortality across state trauma systems. Level I or II trauma centers in the contiguous United States were mapped. State-level age-adjusted injury fatality rates per 100,000 people were obtained and evaluated for spatial autocorrelation. Nearest neighbor ratios (NNRs) were generated for each state. A NNR less than 1 indicates clustering, while a NNR greater than 1 indicates dispersion. NNRs were tested for difference from random geographic distribution. Fatality rates and NNRs were examined for correlation. Fatality rates were compared between states with trauma center clustering versus dispersion. Trauma center distribution and population density were evaluated. Spatial-lag regression determined the association between fatality rate and NNR, controlling for state-level demographics, population density, injury severity, trauma system resources, and socioeconomic factors. Fatality rates were spatially autocorrelated (Moran's I = 0.35, p < 0.01). Nine states had a clustered pattern (median NNR, 0.55; interquartile range [IQR], 0.48-0.60), 22 had a dispersed pattern (median NNR, 2.00; IQR, 1.68-3.99), and 10 had a random pattern (median NNR, 0.90; IQR, 0.85-1.00) of trauma center distribution. Fatality rate and NNR were correlated (ρ = 0.34, p = 0.03). Clustered states had a lower median injury fatality rate compared with dispersed states (56.9 [IQR, 46.5-58.9] vs. 64.9 [IQR, 52.5-77.1]; p = 0.04). Dispersed compared with clustered states had more counties without a trauma center that had higher population density than counties with a trauma center (5.7% vs. 1.2%, p < 0.01). Spatial-lag regression demonstrated that fatality rates increased by 0.02 per 100,000 persons for each unit increase in NNR (p < 0.01). Geographic distribution of trauma centers correlates with injury mortality, with more clustered state trauma centers associated with lower fatality rates. This may be a result of access relative to population density. These results may have implications for trauma system planning and require further study to investigate underlying mechanisms. Therapeutic/care management study, level IV.

Factors associated with pulmonary dysfunction in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery with use of intra-aortic balloon pump.

PubMed

Amaral Gonçalves Fusatto, Helena; Castilho de Figueiredo, Luciana; Ragonete Dos Anjos Agostini, Ana Paula; Sibinelli, Melissa; Dragosavac, Desanka

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify pulmonary dysfunction and factors associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation, hospital stay, weaning failure and mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting with use of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP). This observational study analyzed respiratory, surgical, clinical and demographic variables and related them to outcomes. We analyzed 39 patients with a mean age of 61.2 years. Pulmonary dysfunction, characterized by mildly impaired gas exchange, was present from the immediate postoperative period to the third postoperative day. Mechanical ventilation time was influenced by the use of IABP and PaO2/FiO2, female gender and smoking. Intensive care unit (ICU) stay was influenced by APACHE II score and use of IABP. Mortality was strongly influenced by APACHE II score, followed by weaning failure. Pulmonary dysfunction was present from the first to the third postoperative day. Mechanical ventilation time was influenced by female gender, smoking, duration of IABP use and PaO2/FiO2 on the first postoperative day. ICU stay was influenced by APACHE II score and duration of IABP. Mortality was influenced by APACHE II score, followed by weaning failure. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Rollover Car Crashes with Ejection: A Deadly Combination—An Analysis of 719 Patients

PubMed Central

Latifi, Rifat; El-Menyar, Ayman; El-Hennawy, Hany; Al-Thani, Hassan

2014-01-01

Rollover car crashes (ROCs) are serious public safety concerns worldwide. Objective. To determine the incidence and outcomes of ROCs with or without ejection of occupants in the State of Qatar. Methods. A retrospective study of all patients involved in ROCs admitted to Level I trauma center in Qatar (2011-2012). Patients were divided into Group I (ROC with ejection) and Group II (ROC without ejection). Results. A total of 719 patients were evaluated (237 in Group I and 482 in Group II). The mean age in Group I was lower than in Group II (24.3 ± 10.3 versus 29 ± 12.2; P = 0.001). Group I had higher injury severity score and sustained significantly more head, chest, and abdominal injuries in comparison to Group II. The mortality rate was higher in Group I (25% versus 7%; P = 0.001). Group I patients required higher ICU admission rate (P = 0.001). Patients in Group I had a 5-fold increased risk for age-adjusted mortality (OR 5.43; 95% CI 3.11–9.49), P = 0.001). Conclusion. ROCs with ejection are associated with higher rate of morbidity and mortality compared to ROCs without ejection. As an increased number of young Qatari males sustain ROCs with ejection, these findings highlight the need for research-based injury prevention initiatives in the country. PMID:24693231

Drinking Level Versus Drinking Pattern and Cigarette Smoking Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Holahan, Charles J; Brennan, Penny L; Schutte, Kathleen K; Holahan, Carole K; Hixon, J Gregory; Moos, Rudolf H

2018-04-01

There is a lack of research on the role of alcohol consumption in cigarette smoking among older adults, and the few studies on alcohol use and smoking with older adults have failed to distinguish between average level and pattern of drinking as predictors of smoking. The main purpose of this study was to examine the independent contributions of average level versus pattern of drinking as predictors of cigarette smoking among older adults. A subsidiary purpose was to examine the link between continued smoking and mortality among older smokers. We investigated average level and pattern of drinking as predictors of current smoking among 1,151 older adults at baseline and of continued smoking and mortality among the subset of 276 baseline smokers tracked across 20 years. We used multiple linear and logistic regression analyses and, to test mediation, bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. A high level of average drinking and a pattern of episodic heavy drinking were concurrently associated with smoking at baseline. However, only episodic heavy drinking was prospectively linked to continued smoking among baseline smokers. Continued smoking among baseline smokers increased the odds of 20-year mortality and provided an indirect pathway through which heavy episodic drinking related to mortality. Smokers who misuse alcohol are a challenging population for smoking cessation efforts. Older adults who concurrently misuse alcohol and smoke cigarettes provide a unique target for public health interventions. Copyright © 2018 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Partial cambial mortality in high-elevation Pinus aristata (Pinaceae)

Treesearch

Andrew J. Schauer; Anna W. Schoettle; Richard L. Boyce

2001-01-01

Partial cambial mortality is a growth form that is characteristic of Pinus aristata trees. To better elucidate their cambial death pattern, tree size and aspect of cambial death data were gathered from three Pinus aristata forests in central Colorado, USA. Stripping frequency tended to be higher for larger diameter classes. Partial cambial mortality exhibits...

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, Chie; Tagami, Takashi; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III-V) from the 2004-2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004-2008), phase II (2009-2012), and phase III (2013-2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury.

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Chie; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Background Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. Methods We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III–V) from the 2004–2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004–2008), phase II (2009–2012), and phase III (2013–2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Results Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22–0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). Conclusions In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury. PMID:28910356

Spatially nonrandom tree mortality and ingrowth maintain equilibrium pattern in an old-growth Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest.

PubMed

Lutz, James A; Larson, Andrew J; Furniss, Tucker J; Donato, Daniel C; Freund, James A; Swanson, Mark E; Bible, Kenneth J; Chen, Jiquan; Franklin, Jerry F

2014-08-01

Mortality processes in old-growth forests are generally assumed to be driven by gap-scale disturbance, with only a limited role ascribed to density-dependent mortality, but these assumptions are rarely tested with data sets incorporating repeated measurements. Using a 12-ha spatially explicit plot censused 13 years apart in an approximately 500-year-old Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest, we demonstrate significant density-dependent mortality and spatially aggregated tree recruitment. However, the combined effect of these strongly nonrandom demographic processes was to maintain tree patterns in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Density-dependent mortality was most pronounced for the dominant late-successional species, Tsuga heterophylla. The long-lived, early-seral Pseudotsuga menziesii experienced an annual stem mortality rate of 0.84% and no new recruitment. Late-seral species Tsuga and Abies amabilis had nearly balanced demographic rates of ingrowth and mortality. The 2.34% mortality rate for Taxus brevifolia was higher than expected, notably less than ingrowth, and strongly affected by proximity to Tsuga. Large-diameter Tsuga structured both the regenerating conspecific and heterospecific cohorts with recruitment of Tsuga and Abies unlikely in neighborhoods crowded with large-diameter competitors (P < 0.001). Density-dependent competitive interactions strongly shape forest communities even five centuries after stand initiation, underscoring the dynamic nature of even equilibrial old-growth forests.

Spatial and temporal patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in China, 1973-2005.

PubMed

Xia, Changfa; Yu, Xue Qin; Zheng, Rongshou; Zhang, Siwei; Zeng, Hongmei; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zuo, Tingting; Yang, Zhixun; Chen, Wanqing

2017-08-10

We fitted generalized linear models using data from three national retrospective surveys on cause of death in China to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality over the period 1973 to 2005. The results suggest that there was a significant decrease in NPC mortality in China over time (p < 0.0001), the mortality rate ratio (RR) for the two later time periods were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.64) for 1990-1992 and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.39-0.45) for 2004-2005 compared to that of 1973-1975. Residents living in the South China areas have an elevated risk of mortality from NPC compared to those living in North China across all three time periods, with the RR being 4.96 (95% CI: 4.31-5.70) in 1973-1975, 12.83 (95% CI: 10.73-15.34) in 1990-1992 and 15.20 (95% CI: 12.34-18.72) in 2004-2005. Although NPC mortality in most areas of China has reduced to very low levels, the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality are still noteworthy. It may be necessary to target public health policies to address the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socioeconomic status (SES) were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was also a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hotspots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was found to be clearly evident in this rural population. PMID:23733287

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M

2013-05-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and demographic surveillance system in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socio-economic status were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed, indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hot spots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy was found to be clearly evident in this rural population.

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

Medication inhibits tolerance to seawater in coho salmon smolts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouck, Gerald R.; Johnson, David A.

1979-01-01

Applications of 10 therapeutic and two anesthetic agents to healthy smolts of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) by conventional methods were followed by two different posttreatment circumstances. In condition I, fish were treated and then transferred directly to 28‰ seawater for 10 days; in condition II, fish were treated and held in fresh water for 4 days before their medium was gradually changed over a 4-hour period to 28‰ seawater. In condition I, no mortality occurred among fish treated with 2,4-D, trichlorofon, simazine, quinaldine, or light to moderate doses of MS-222. About 10% mortality occurred among fish treated with formalin and nifurpirinol. High mortality in seawater followed treatments with copper sulfate, hyamine 1622, potassium permanganate, malachite green (one protocol), and heavy doses of MS-222. In condition II, mortality was reduced but still high for copper sulfate and potassium permanganate, much lower for malachite green and hyamine 1622, and zero for the other agents. The results indicate that additional recovery time in fresh water is necessary between some treatments and exposure to salt water.

Subtypes of the Type II Pit Pattern Reflect Distinct Molecular Subclasses in the Serrated Neoplastic Pathway.

PubMed

Aoki, Hironori; Yamamoto, Eiichiro; Yamano, Hiro-O; Sugai, Tamotsu; Kimura, Tomoaki; Tanaka, Yoshihito; Matsushita, Hiro-O; Yoshikawa, Kenjiro; Takagi, Ryo; Harada, Eiji; Nakaoka, Michiko; Yoshida, Yuko; Harada, Taku; Sudo, Gota; Eizuka, Makoto; Yorozu, Akira; Kitajima, Hiroshi; Niinuma, Takeshi; Kai, Masahiro; Nojima, Masanori; Suzuki, Hiromu; Nakase, Hiroshi

2018-03-15

Colorectal serrated lesions (SLs) are important premalignant lesions whose clinical and biological features are not fully understood. We aimed to establish accurate colonoscopic diagnosis and treatment of SLs through evaluation of associations among the morphological, pathological, and molecular characteristics of SLs. A total of 388 premalignant and 18 malignant colorectal lesions were studied. Using magnifying colonoscopy, microsurface structures were assessed based on Kudo's pit pattern classification system, and the Type II pit pattern was subcategorized into classical Type II, Type II-Open (Type II-O) and Type II-Long (Type II-L). BRAF/KRAS mutations and DNA methylation of CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) markers (MINT1, - 2, - 12, - 31, p16, and MLH1) were analyzed through pyrosequencing. Type II-O was tightly associated with sessile serrated adenoma/polyps (SSA/Ps) with BRAF mutation and CIMP-high. Most lesions with simple Type II or Type II-L were hyperplastic polyps, while mixtures of Type II or Type II-L plus more advanced pit patterns (III/IV) were characteristic of traditional serrated adenomas (TSAs). Type II-positive TSAs frequently exhibited BRAF mutation and CIMP-low, while Type II-L-positive TSAs were tightly associated with KRAS mutation and CIMP-low. Analysis of lesions containing both premalignant and cancerous components suggested Type II-L-positive TSAs may develop into KRAS-mutated/CIMP-low/microsatellite stable cancers, while Type II-O-positive SSA/Ps develop into BRAF-mutated/CIMP-high/microsatellite unstable cancers. These results suggest that Type II subtypes reflect distinct molecular subclasses in the serrated neoplasia pathway and that they could be useful hallmarks for identifying SLs at high risk of developing into CRC.

Migration pattern and mortality of ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union: a cohort study in Germany

PubMed Central

Kaucher, Simone; Deckert, Andreas; Becher, Heiko; Winkler, Volker

2017-01-01

Objective We aimed to investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality among ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union by different immigration periods to describe associations with migration pattern and mortality. Design We used pooled data from three retrospective cohort studies in Germany. Participants Ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union (called resettlers), who immigrated to Germany since 1990 to the federal states North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland and to the region of Augsburg (n=59 390). Outcome All-cause and cause-specific mortality among resettlers in comparison to the general German population, separated by immigration period. Methods Immigration periods were defined following legislative changes in German immigration policy (1990–1992, 1993–1995, 1996+). Resettlers’ characteristics were described accordingly. To investigate mortality differences by immigration period, we calculated age-standardised mortality rates (ASRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) of resettlers in comparison to the general German population. Additionally, we modelled sex-specific ASRs with Poisson regression, using age, year and immigration period as independent variables. Results The composition of resettlers differed by immigration period. Since 1993, the percentage of resettlers from the Russian Federation and non-German spouses increased. Higher all-cause mortality was found among resettlers who immigrated in 1996 and after (ASR 628.1, 95% CI 595.3 to 660.8), compared with resettlers who immigrated before 1993 (ASR 561.8, 95% CI 537.2 to 586.4). SMR analysis showed higher all-cause mortality among resettler men from the last immigration period compared with German men (SMR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19), whereas resettlers who immigrated earlier showed lower all-cause mortality. Results from Poisson regression, adjusted for age and year, corroborated those findings. Conclusions Mortality differences by immigration period suggest different risk-factor patterns and possibly deteriorated integration opportunities. Health policy should guard the consequences of immigration law alterations with respect to changing compositions of migrant groups and their health status. PMID:29259065

Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai'i.

PubMed

Rodgers, Ku'ulei S; Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Richards Donà, Angela

2017-01-01

Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), O'ahu, Hawai'i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47%) and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%). Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH) to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH). The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB) and Backdoors (BD) experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0%) and at BD (2.9%) although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated with visitor use however, coral mortality was similar. These results suggest that elevated temperature was more influential in coral bleaching and the associated mortality than high circulation or visitor use.

Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai‘i

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), O‘ahu, Hawai‘i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47%) and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%). Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH) to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH). The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB) and Backdoors (BD) experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0%) and at BD (2.9%) although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated with visitor use however, coral mortality was similar. These results suggest that elevated temperature was more influential in coral bleaching and the associated mortality than high circulation or visitor use. PMID:28584703

Spatial distribution of Parkinson's disease mortality in Spain, 1989-1998, as a guide for focused aetiological research or health-care intervention

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Aetiologically, genetic and environmental factors having an uneven spatial distribution may underlie Parkinson's disease (PD). Undiagnosis of PD in selected regions might have limited access to treatment with levodopa and simultaneously, if present at death, determined PD underreporting at the death record. The purpose of this study was to describe and analyse municipal mortality due to PD in Spain in aetiological and interventional perspective. Methods PD mortality at a municipal level was modelled using the Besag-York- Molliè autoregressive spatial model, combining demographic information with cause-of-death diagnostic data (International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision (ICD-9) code 332.0). Municipal relative risks (RRs) were independently estimated for women, men and both sexes, and plotted on maps depicting smoothed RR estimates and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1. Results A south-north gradient, with large geographical areas suggesting clustered towns with high mortality, was seen in Asturias, the Basque Country, Balearic Islands and, particularly, in the Lower Ebro valley around Tarragona. Similarly, there was a suggestion that lowest mortality was clustered in the south-east and south-west. We identified some isolated or clustered municipalities with high mortality that were situated near industrial plants reported to be associated with environmental xenobiotic emissions. However, the same pattern was also observed for some cities with low mortality. Conclusion Municipal PD mortality in Spain was unevenly distributed. Patterns were roughly similar to reported provincial PD mortality and use of levodopa. While the overall pattern appears to result from spatially selective PD undiagnosis, and can not be ascribed to industrial emissions, it can not be excluded that selected "hot spots" reflect genetic factors and/or environmental exposures inducing parkinsonism. A few municipal populations, located in low-mortality-risk areas in the vicinity of polluting plants or registering high excess PD mortality, might constitute a priority for conducting direct etiological studies. Additionally, interventions aimed to reduce potential PD undiagnosis might be most appropriate in the South. PMID:19954536

Migration pattern and mortality of ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union: a cohort study in Germany.

PubMed

Kaucher, Simone; Deckert, Andreas; Becher, Heiko; Winkler, Volker

2017-12-19

We aimed to investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality among ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union by different immigration periods to describe associations with migration pattern and mortality. We used pooled data from three retrospective cohort studies in Germany. Ethnic German migrants from the former Soviet Union (called resettlers), who immigrated to Germany since 1990 to the federal states North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland and to the region of Augsburg (n=59 390). All-cause and cause-specific mortality among resettlers in comparison to the general German population, separated by immigration period. Immigration periods were defined following legislative changes in German immigration policy (1990-1992, 1993-1995, 1996+). Resettlers' characteristics were described accordingly. To investigate mortality differences by immigration period, we calculated age-standardised mortality rates (ASRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) of resettlers in comparison to the general German population. Additionally, we modelled sex-specific ASRs with Poisson regression, using age, year and immigration period as independent variables. The composition of resettlers differed by immigration period. Since 1993, the percentage of resettlers from the Russian Federation and non-German spouses increased. Higher all-cause mortality was found among resettlers who immigrated in 1996 and after (ASR 628.1, 95% CI 595.3 to 660.8), compared with resettlers who immigrated before 1993 (ASR 561.8, 95% CI 537.2 to 586.4). SMR analysis showed higher all-cause mortality among resettler men from the last immigration period compared with German men (SMR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19), whereas resettlers who immigrated earlier showed lower all-cause mortality. Results from Poisson regression, adjusted for age and year, corroborated those findings. Mortality differences by immigration period suggest different risk-factor patterns and possibly deteriorated integration opportunities. Health policy should guard the consequences of immigration law alterations with respect to changing compositions of migrant groups and their health status. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Postparalysis Facial Synkinesis: Clinical Classification and Surgical Strategies

PubMed Central

Chang, Tommy Nai-Jen; Lu, Johnny Chuieng-Yi

2015-01-01

Background: Postparalysis facial synkinesis (PPFS) can occur after any cause of facial palsy. Current treatments are still inadequate. Surgical intervention, instead of Botox and rehabilitation only, for different degrees of PPFS was proposed. Methods: Seventy patients (43 females and 27 males) with PPFS were enrolled since 1986. They were divided into 4 patterns based on quality of smile and severity of synkinesis. Data collection for clinically various presentations was made: pattern I (n = 14) with good smile but synkinesis, pattern II (n = 17) with acceptable smile but dominant synkinesis, pattern III (n = 34) unacceptable smile and dominant synkinesis, and pattern IV (n = 5) poor smile and synkinesis. Surgical interventions were based on patterns of PPFS. Selective myectomy and some cosmetic procedures were performed for pattern I and II patients. Extensive myectomy and neurectomy of the involved muscles and nerves followed by functioning free-muscle transplantation for facial reanimation in 1- or 2-stage procedure were performed for pattern III and many pattern II patients. A classic 2-stage procedure for facial reanimation was performed for pattern IV patients. Results: Minor aesthetic procedures provided some help to pattern I patients but did not cure the problem. They all had short follow-up. Most patients in patterns II (14/17, 82%) and III (34/34, 100%) showed a significant improvement of eye and smile appearance and significant decrease in synkinetic movements following the aggressively major surgical intervention. Nearly, all of the patients treated by the authors did not need repeated botulinum toxin A injection nor require a profound rehabilitation program in the follow-up period. Conclusions: Treatment of PPFS remains a challenging problem. Major surgical reconstruction showed more promising and long-lasting results than botulinum toxin A and/or rehabilitation on pattern III and II patients. PMID:25878931

Divergent Paths for Adult Mortality in Russia and Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gavrilova, Natalia; Torgasheva, Liudmila; Denisenko, Mikhail

2013-01-01

Adult mortality has been lower in Kyrgyzstan vs. Russia among males since at least 1981 and among females since 1999. Also, Kyrgyzstan’s mortality fluctuations have had smaller amplitude. This has occurred in spite of worse macro-economic outcomes in Kyrgyzstan. To understand these surprising patterns, we analyzed cause-specific mortality in Kyrgyzstan vs. Russia for the period 1981-2010, using unpublished official data. We find that, as in Russia, fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan have been primarily due to changes in external causes and circulatory causes, and alcohol appears to play an important role. However, in contrast with Russia, mortality from these causes in Kyrgyzstan has been lower and has increased by a smaller amount. As a result, the mortality gap between the two countries is overwhelmingly attributable to external and cardio-vascular causes, and more generally, to causes that have been shown to be strongly related to alcohol consumption. These cause-specific results, together with the existence of large ethnic differentials in mortality in Kyrgyzstan, highlight the importance of cultural and religious differences, and their impact on patterns of alcohol consumption, in explaining the mortality gap between the two countries. These findings show that explanatory frameworks relying solely on macro-economic factors are not sufficient for understanding differences in mortality levels and trends among former Soviet republics. PMID:24116034

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

PubMed Central

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903

When Do Changes in Cancer Survival Mean Progress? The Insight From Population Incidence and Mortality

PubMed Central

Mariotto, Angela B.; Schwartz, Lisa M.; Luo, Jun; Woloshin, Steven

2014-01-01

Background It is often assumed that increases in cancer survival reflect true progress against cancer. This is true when these increases are accompanied by decreased burden of disease: Fewer people being diagnosed or dying from cancer (ie, decreased incidence and mortality). But increased survival can also occur even when incidence is increasing and mortality is unchanged. Objective To use trends in cancer burden—incidence and mortality—to illustrate when changes in survival reflect true progress. Methods Using data from 1975 to 2010 collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (incidence, survival) and the National Center for Health Statistics (mortality), we analyzed US trends in five-year relative survival, age-adjusted incidence, and mortality for selected cancers to identify patterns that do and do not reflect progress. Results Among the nine common cancers examined, survival increased in seven, and changed little or not at all for two. In some cases, increased survival was accompanied by decreased burden of disease, reflecting true progress. For example, from 1975 to 2010, five-year survival for colon cancer patients improved (from 48% to 68%) while cancer burden fell: Fewer cases (incidence decreased from 60 to 41 per 100000) and fewer deaths (mortality decreased from 28 to 16 per 100000), a pattern explained by both increased early detection (with removal of cancer precursors) and more effective treatment. In other cases, however, increased survival did not reflect true progress. In melanoma, kidney, and thyroid cancer, five-year survival increased but incidence increased with no change in mortality. This pattern suggests overdiagnosis from increased early detection, an increase in cancer burden. Conclusions Changes in survival must be interpreted in the context of incidence and mortality. Increased survival only represents progress when accompanied by a reduction in incidence, mortality, or ideally both. PMID:25417232

Healing Rate of Swim Bladders in Rainbow Trout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellgraph, Brian J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.

2008-12-01

The swimbladders of juvenile rainbow trout Onchorhynchus mykiss were ruptured and subsequently observed for 28 days to identify healing patterns of swimbladder wounds and the effects of swimbladder rupture on direct mortality. Healing began within seven days, wounds were completely closed after 14 days, and no mortalities occurred. The healing process followed a pattern in which tissue first thickened around the opening (7 to 14 days), followed by scarring of the ruptured area, and disappearance of any evidence of the wound (21 to 28 days). The healing observed in juvenile rainbow trout swimbladders suggests that swimbladder rupture does not resultmore » in direct mortality as was hypothesized; however, the indirect effects of swimbladder injury (e.g., a decreased ability to swim efficiently) may lead to mortality by predation or other natural phenomena that were not observable in this study.« less

Type of disinfectant in drinking water and patterns of mortality in Massachusetts.

PubMed Central

Zierler, S; Danley, R A; Feingold, L

1986-01-01

Chlorination has been the major strategy for disinfection of drinking water in the United States. Concern about the potential health effects of the reaction by-products of chlorine has prompted use of alternative strategies. One such method is chloramination, a treatment process that does not appear to have carcinogenic by-products, but may have less potent biocidal activity than chlorination. We examined the patterns of mortality of residents in Massachusetts who died between 1969 and 1983 and lived in communities using drinking water that was disinfected either by chlorine or chloramine. Comparison of type of disinfectant among 51,645 cases of deaths due to selected cancer sites and 214,988 controls who died from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, or pulmonary disease, or from lymphatic cancer showed small variation in the patterns of mortality. Bladder cancer was moderately associated with residence at death in a chlorinated community (mortality odds ratio = 1.7, 95% confidence interval = 1.3-2.2) in a logistic regression analysis using controls who died from lymphatic cancer. A slight excess of deaths from pneumonia and influenza was observed in communities whose residents drank chloraminated water compared to residents from chlorinated communities, as well as to all Massachusetts residents (standardized mortality ratio = 118, 95% confidence interval = 116-120 for chloraminated communities, and standardized mortality ratio = 98, 95% confidence interval = 95-100 for chlorinated communities). These results are intended to be preliminary and crude descriptions of the relationship under study.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3816730

Social inequality, ethnicity and cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Cooper, R S

2001-10-01

Epidemiological research on cardiovascular risk factors has led to important advances in prevention science by providing insights that have now resulted in substantial reductions in mortality. This research used the variation in risk among individuals as the guide to causal exposures. Large differentials remain among socio-demographic groups, however, and the causes of these differentials may be distinctly different from those observed at the individual level. Vital statistics and census data from the US and selected regions were used in an ecologic analysis. In 1996 heart disease mortality in the US varied from 156/100 000 among African-American women to 51/100 000 among Asian women; similar differentials were observed for men. Income equality was correlated with heart disease mortality among the 47 largest US cities (r = -0.4; P = 0.006). Independent of income equality, racial segregation was also associated with risk of death from cardiovascular disease in this sample of cities. Social processes generate marked differentials in heart disease mortality among demographic groups. In the US, death rates are currently 2-3 times higher among African Americans compared to Asians. Broadly speaking, this variation results from their separate cultural legacies, based on well-recognized lifestyle factors and dietary patterns. Ecological comparisons across cities that share similar lifestyle patterns suggest that income inequality and patterns of racial discrimination are each associated with large variation in mortality in a similar manner. Racism and social inequality can be conceptualized as social causes of excess cardiovascular mortality that may not be measurable at the individual level.

Mortality atlas of the main causes of death in Switzerland, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Chammartin, Frédérique; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2016-01-01

Analysis of the spatial distribution of mortality data is important for identification of high-risk areas, which in turn might guide prevention, and modify behaviour and health resources allocation. This study aimed to update the Swiss mortality atlas by analysing recent data using Bayesian statistical methods. We present average pattern for the major causes of death in Switzerland. We analysed Swiss mortality data from death certificates for the period 2008-2012. Bayesian conditional autoregressive models were employed to smooth the standardised mortality rates and assess average patterns. Additionally, we developed models for age- and gender-specific sub-groups that account for urbanisation and linguistic areas in order to assess their effects on the different sub-groups. We describe the spatial pattern of the major causes of death that occurred in Switzerland between 2008 and 2012, namely 4 cardiovascular diseases, 10 different kinds of cancer, 2 external causes of death, as well as chronic respiratory diseases, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and liver diseases. In-depth analysis of age- and gender-specific mortality rates revealed significant disparities between urbanisation and linguistic areas. We provide a contemporary overview of the spatial distribution of the main causes of death in Switzerland. Our estimates and maps can help future research to deepen our understanding of the spatial variation of major causes of death in Switzerland, which in turn is crucial for targeting preventive measures, changing behaviours and a more cost-effective allocation of health resources.

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: period and cohort effects.

PubMed

Caselli, G; Vallin, J; Vaupel, J W; Yashin, A

1987-11-01

The age/sex-specific mortality trends of France and Italy were studied over the 1899-1979 period in as much detail as possible in an effort to distinguish between cohort effects and those related to period changes. Complete series of mortality data by individual years of age and calendar years were available from 1869 to 1979 for Italy and from 1899 to 1982 for France. For both countries, these data include the military and civil deaths not registered in vital statistics during the war periods. They cover each national territory as defined by its present boundaries. The graphical representation method of mortality surfaces, elaborated by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1985), was adopted. The age/sex-specific mortality patterns of France and Italy have not followed the same trends, and the differences observed today are not those of 100 years ago. The mean death probabilities for the 1975-79 period were used to illustrate the age-specific patterns of mortality. Although infant mortality was higher in Italy than in France, the death probabilities at ages 1-15 for both sexes were roughly the same for both countries. At ages 15-23, they were much higher in France than in Italy, and they remained considerably higher in France up to age 55. From then on, the sexes differ: for males, the 2 countries showed similar patterns, whereas for females the probabilities were noticeably higher for France. The situation was very different for both countries at the beginning of the century. For both sexes, higher mortality was observed in Italy not only during infancy but throughout childhood and the adolescent years up to age 15. The 2 countries showed similar patterns from 15-25. Above age 25, the 2 countries had similar patterns for females, whereas male mortality was higher in France right up to the old age groups. Such differences in the age-specific mortality trends depend in part on a different development of health and social conditions but also may be due to factors concerning the history of particular groups of generations. The general health progress made in both countries has played an important role but, on the whole, a more favorable role in Italy. Italy's infant and child mortality have drawn nearer the French level, while it has increased its advantage regarding adult mortality. France has strengthened its position only at older ages. There have been many perturbations since 1900, the most important of which has been the 2 world wars. They affected the 2 countries differently both in terms of their immediate effects on both the civil and military populations and in the longterm effects on the cohorts that had suffered most. These cohort effects, largely related to World War I, seem to have disappeared at this time, most likely in part because of selection relevelling the chances of survival of the various cohorts and in part because of general health progress masking the slight differences that may remain.

An analysis of the predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients admitted after suicidal hanging to an Indian multidisciplinary Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Renuka, MK; Kalaiselvan, MS; Arunkumar, AS

2017-01-01

Background and Aims: Hanging is a frequently used method to attempt suicide in India. There is a lack of data in the Indian population regarding clinical features and outcomes of suicidal hanging. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors affecting mortality and morbidity in patients admitted with suicidal hanging to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Methods: A 6-year retrospective study of adult patients admitted to the ICU with suicidal hanging was analysed for demographics, mode of hanging, lead time to emergency room (ER) admission, clinical presentation, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, admission Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and neurological outcomes. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality rate. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU-LOS, time for neurological recovery, organ support and duration of mechanical ventilation. Statistical analysis was performed using the Student's t-test for continuous variables and Chi-square test for categorical variables. Results: We analysed data of 106 patients. The median age was 27 years [Interquartile Range (IQR) (22–34)]. The median lead time to ER admission was 1 h [IQR (0.5–1.4)] with median ICU stay of 3 days [IQR (2–4)]. Vasopressors were administered to 27.4% patients. GCS was ≤7 in 65% patients, and 84.9% patients received mechanical ventilation. Mortality rate was 10.3%. Survivors recovered with normal organ function. Conclusion: Suicidal hanging is associated with significant mortality. Admission GCS, APACHE II and 48 h SOFA score were predictors of poor outcome. PMID:28794524

Imbalance of arginine and asymmetric dimethylarginine is associated with markers of circulatory failure, organ failure and mortality in shock patients.

PubMed

Visser, Marlieke; Vermeulen, Mechteld A R; Richir, Milan C; Teerlink, Tom; Houdijk, Alexander P J; Kostense, Piet J; Wisselink, Willem; de Mol, Bas A J M; van Leeuwen, Paul A M; Oudemans-van Straaten, Heleen M

2012-05-01

In shock, organ perfusion is of vital importance because organ oxygenation is at risk. NO, the main endothelial-derived vasodilator, is crucial for organ perfusion and coronary patency. The availability of NO might depend on the balance between a substrate (arginine) and an inhibitor (asymmetric dimethylarginine; ADMA) of NO synthase. Therefore, we investigated the relationship of arginine, ADMA and their ratio with circulatory markers, disease severity, organ failure and mortality in shock patients. In forty-four patients with shock (cardiogenic n 17, septic n 27), we prospectively measured plasma arginine and ADMA at intensive care unit admission, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II-(predicted mortality) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and circulatory markers to investigate their relationship. Arginine concentration was decreased (34·6 (SD 17·9) μmol/l) while ADMA concentration was within the normal range (0·46 (SD 0·18) μmol/l), resulting in a decrease in the arginine:ADMA ratio. The ratio correlated with several circulatory markers (cardiac index, disseminated intravascular coagulation, bicarbonate, lactate and pH), APACHE II and SOFA score, creatine kinase and glucose. The arginine:ADMA ratio showed an association (OR 0·976, 95 % CI 0·963, 0·997, P = 0·025) and a diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve 0·721, 95 % CI 0·560, 0·882, P = 0·016) for hospital mortality, whereas the arginine or ADMA concentration alone or APACHE II-predicted mortality failed to do so. In conclusion, in shock patients, the imbalance of arginine and ADMA is related to circulatory failure, organ failure and disease severity, and predicts mortality. We propose a pathophysiological mechanism in shock: the imbalance of arginine and ADMA contributes to endothelial and cardiac dysfunction resulting in poor organ perfusion and organ failure, thereby increasing the risk of death.

Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong: a small-area ecological study.

PubMed

Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Zheng, Qishi; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina Pui-Yun; Chau, Patsy Yuen-Kwan; Jahn, Heiko J; Plass, Dietrich; Katzschner, Lutz; Kraemer, Alexander; Wong, Chit-Ming

2015-01-01

Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1°C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50-5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14-8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64-10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insights into mortality patterns and causes of death through a process point of view model.

PubMed

Anderson, James J; Li, Ting; Sharrow, David J

2017-02-01

Process point of view (POV) models of mortality, such as the Strehler-Mildvan and stochastic vitality models, represent death in terms of the loss of survival capacity through challenges and dissipation. Drawing on hallmarks of aging, we link these concepts to candidate biological mechanisms through a framework that defines death as challenges to vitality where distal factors defined the age-evolution of vitality and proximal factors define the probability distribution of challenges. To illustrate the process POV, we hypothesize that the immune system is a mortality nexus, characterized by two vitality streams: increasing vitality representing immune system development and immunosenescence representing vitality dissipation. Proximal challenges define three mortality partitions: juvenile and adult extrinsic mortalities and intrinsic adult mortality. Model parameters, generated from Swedish mortality data (1751-2010), exhibit biologically meaningful correspondences to economic, health and cause-of-death patterns. The model characterizes the twentieth century epidemiological transition mainly as a reduction in extrinsic mortality resulting from a shift from high magnitude disease challenges on individuals at all vitality levels to low magnitude stress challenges on low vitality individuals. Of secondary importance, intrinsic mortality was described by a gradual reduction in the rate of loss of vitality presumably resulting from reduction in the rate of immunosenescence. Extensions and limitations of a distal/proximal framework for characterizing more explicit causes of death, e.g. the young adult mortality hump or cancer in old age are discussed.

Insights into mortality patterns and causes of death through a process point of view model

PubMed Central

Anderson, James J.; Li, Ting; Sharrow, David J.

2016-01-01

Process point of view models of mortality, such as the Strehler-Mildvan and stochastic vitality models, represent death in terms of the loss of survival capacity through challenges and dissipation. Drawing on hallmarks of aging, we link these concepts to candidate biological mechanisms through a framework that defines death as challenges to vitality where distal factors defined the age-evolution of vitality and proximal factors define the probability distribution of challenges. To illustrate the process point of view, we hypothesize that the immune system is a mortality nexus, characterized by two vitality streams: increasing vitality representing immune system development and immunosenescence representing vitality dissipation. Proximal challenges define three mortality partitions: juvenile and adult extrinsic mortalities and intrinsic adult mortality. Model parameters, generated from Swedish mortality data (1751-2010), exhibit biologically meaningful correspondences to economic, health and cause-of-death patterns. The model characterizes the 20th century epidemiological transition mainly as a reduction in extrinsic mortality resulting from a shift from high magnitude disease challenges on individuals at all vitality levels to low magnitude stress challenges on low vitality individuals. Of secondary importance, intrinsic mortality was described by a gradual reduction in the rate of loss of vitality presumably resulting from reduction in the rate of immunosenescence. Extensions and limitations of a distal/proximal framework for characterizing more explicit causes of death, e.g. the young adult mortality hump or cancer in old age are discussed. PMID:27885527

Hydrocortisone fails to abolish NF-κB1 protein nuclear translocation in deletion allele carriers of the NFKB1 promoter polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG) and is associated with increased 30-day mortality in septic shock.

PubMed

Schäfer, Simon T; Gessner, Sophia; Scherag, André; Rump, Katharina; Frey, Ulrich H; Siffert, Winfried; Westendorf, Astrid M; Steinmann, Jörg; Peters, Jürgen; Adamzik, Michael

2014-01-01

Previous investigations and meta-analyses on the effect of glucocorticoids on mortality in septic shock revealed mixed results. This heterogeneity might be evoked by genetic variations. Such candidate is a promoter polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG) of the gene encoding the ubiquitous transcription-factor nuclear-factor-κB (NF-κB) which binds to recognition elements in the promoter of several genes encoding for the innate immune-system. In turn, hydrocortisone inhibits NF-κB nuclear translocation and thus transcription of key immune-response regulators. Accordingly, we tested the hypotheses that hydrocortisone has a NFKB1 genotype dependent effect on 1) NF-κB1 nuclear translocation evoked by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in monocytes in vitro, and 2) mortality in septic shock. Monocytes of volunteers with the homozygous insertion (II; n = 5) or deletion (DD; n = 6) NFKB1 genotype were incubated with 10 µgml-1 LPS ± hydrocortisone (10-5M), and NF-κB1 nuclear translocation was assessed (immunofluorescence). Furthermore, we analyzed 30-day-mortality in 160 patients with septic shock stratified for both genotype and hydrocortisone therapy. Hydrocortisone inhibited LPS induced nuclear translocation of NF-κB1 in II (25%±11;p = 0.0001) but not in DD genotypes (51%±15;p = n.s.). Onehundredandfour of 160 patients with septic shock received hydrocortisone, at the discretion of the intensivist. NFKB1 deletion allele carriers (ID/DD) receiving hydrocortisone had a much greater 30-day-mortality (57.6%) than II genotypes (24.4%; HR:3.18, 95%-CI:1.61-6.28;p = 0.001). In contrast, 30-day mortality was 22.2% in ID/DD and 25.0% in II genotypes without hydrocortisone therapy. Results were similar when using propensity score matching to account for possible bias in the intensivists' decision to administer hydrocortisone. Hydrocortisone fails to inhibit LPS induced nuclear NF-κB1 translocation in deletion allele carriers of the NFKB1 promoter polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG). In septic shock, hydrocortisone treatment is associated with markedly increased 30-day-mortality only in such carriers. Accordingly, previous heterogeneous results regarding the benefit of hydrocortisone in septic shock may be reconciled by genetic variation of the NFKB1 promoter polymorphism.

Hydrocortisone Fails to Abolish NF-κB1 Protein Nuclear Translocation in Deletion Allele Carriers of the NFKB1 Promoter Polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG) and Is Associated with Increased 30-Day Mortality in Septic Shock

PubMed Central

Schäfer, Simon T.; Gessner, Sophia; Scherag, André; Rump, Katharina; Frey, Ulrich H.; Siffert, Winfried; Westendorf, Astrid M.; Steinmann, Jörg; Peters, Jürgen; Adamzik, Michael

2014-01-01

Background Previous investigations and meta-analyses on the effect of glucocorticoids on mortality in septic shock revealed mixed results. This heterogeneity might be evoked by genetic variations. Such candidate is a promoter polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG) of the gene encoding the ubiquitous transcription-factor nuclear-factor-κB (NF-κB) which binds to recognition elements in the promoter of several genes encoding for the innate immune-system. In turn, hydrocortisone inhibits NF-κB nuclear translocation and thus transcription of key immune-response regulators. Accordingly, we tested the hypotheses that hydrocortisone has a NFKB1 genotype dependent effect on 1) NF-κB1 nuclear translocation evoked by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in monocytes in vitro, and 2) mortality in septic shock. Methods Monocytes of volunteers with the homozygous insertion (II; n = 5) or deletion (DD; n = 6) NFKB1 genotype were incubated with 10 µgml-1 LPS ± hydrocortisone (10-5M), and NF-κB1 nuclear translocation was assessed (immunofluorescence). Furthermore, we analyzed 30-day-mortality in 160 patients with septic shock stratified for both genotype and hydrocortisone therapy. Results Hydrocortisone inhibited LPS induced nuclear translocation of NF-κB1 in II (25%±11;p = 0.0001) but not in DD genotypes (51%±15;p = n.s.). Onehundredandfour of 160 patients with septic shock received hydrocortisone, at the discretion of the intensivist. NFKB1 deletion allele carriers (ID/DD) receiving hydrocortisone had a much greater 30-day-mortality (57.6%) than II genotypes (24.4%; HR:3.18, 95%-CI:1.61-6.28;p = 0.001). In contrast, 30-day mortality was 22.2% in ID/DD and 25.0% in II genotypes without hydrocortisone therapy. Results were similar when using propensity score matching to account for possible bias in the intensivists' decision to administer hydrocortisone. Conclusion Hydrocortisone fails to inhibit LPS induced nuclear NF-κB1 translocation in deletion allele carriers of the NFKB1 promoter polymorphism (-94ins/delATTG). In septic shock, hydrocortisone treatment is associated with markedly increased 30-day-mortality only in such carriers. Accordingly, previous heterogeneous results regarding the benefit of hydrocortisone in septic shock may be reconciled by genetic variation of the NFKB1 promoter polymorphism. PMID:25133403

Characteristics, Outcomes, and Predictability of Critically Ill Obstetric Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Vasquez, Daniela N; Das Neves, Andrea V; Vidal, Laura; Moseinco, Miriam; Lapadula, Jorge; Zakalik, Graciela; Santa-Maria, Analía; Gomez, Raúl A; Capalbo, Mónica; Fernandez, Claudia; Agüero-Villareal, Enrique; Vommaro, Santiago; Moretti, Marcelo; Soli, Silvana B; Ballestero, Florencia; Sottile, Juan P; Chapier, Viviana; Lovesio, Carlos; Santos, José; Bertoletti, Fernando; Intile, Alfredo D; Desmery, Pablo M; Estenssoro, Elisa

2015-09-01

To evaluate pregnant/postpartum patients requiring ICUs admission in Argentina, describe characteristics of mothers and outcomes for mothers/babies, evaluate risk factors for maternal-fetal-neonatal mortality; and compare outcomes between patients admitted to public and private health sectors. Multicenter, prospective, national cohort study. Twenty ICUs in Argentina (public, 8 and private, 12). Pregnant/postpartum (< 42 d) patients admitted to ICU. None. Three hundred sixty-two patients were recruited, 51% from the public health sector and 49% from the private. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II was 8 (4-12); predicted/observed mortality, 7.6%/3.6%; hospital length of stay, 7 days (5-13 d); and fetal-neonatal losses, 17%. Public versus private health sector patients: years of education, 9 ± 3 versus 15 ± 3; transferred from another hospital, 43% versus 12%; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, 9 (5-13.75) versus 7 (4-9); hospital length of stay, 10 days (6-17 d) versus 6 days (4-9 d); prenatal care, 75% versus 99.4%; fetal-neonatal losses, 25% versus 9% (p = 0.000 for all); and mortality, 5.4% versus 1.7% (p = 0.09). Complications in ICU were multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome (34%), shock (28%), renal dysfunction (25%), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (20%); all predominated in the public sector. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (during first 24 hr of admission) score of at least 6.5 presented the best discriminative power for maternal mortality. Independent predictors of maternal-fetal-neonatal mortality were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, education level, prenatal care, and admission to tertiary hospitals. Patients spent a median of 7 days in hospital; 3.6% died. Maternal-fetal-neonatal mortality was determined not only by acuteness of illness but to social and healthcare aspects like education, prenatal control, and being cared in specialized hospitals. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (during first 24 hr of admission), easier to calculate than Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, was a better predictor of maternal outcome. Evident health disparities existed between patients admitted to public versus private hospitals: the former received less prenatal care, were less educated, were more frequently transferred from other hospitals, were sicker at admission, and developed more complications; maternal and fetal-neonatal mortality were higher. These findings point to the need of redesigning healthcare services to account for these inequities.

Calcium intake and mortality from all causes, cancer, and cardiovascular disease: the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort.

PubMed

Yang, Baiyu; Campbell, Peter T; Gapstur, Susan M; Jacobs, Eric J; Bostick, Roberd M; Fedirko, Veronika; Flanders, W Dana; McCullough, Marjorie L

2016-03-01

Calcium intake may be important for bone health, but its effects on other outcomes, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, remain unclear. Recent reports of adverse cardiovascular effects of supplemental calcium have raised concerns. We investigated associations of supplemental, dietary, and total calcium intakes with all-cause, CVD-specific, and cancer-specific mortality in a large, prospective cohort. A total of 132,823 participants in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort, who were followed from baseline (1992 or 1993) through 2012 for mortality outcomes, were included in the analysis. Dietary and supplemental calcium information was first collected at baseline and updated in 1999 and 2003. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with cumulative updating of exposures were used to calculate RRs and 95% CIs for associations between calcium intake and mortality. During a mean follow-up of 17.5 y, 43,186 deaths occurred. For men, supplemental calcium intake was overall not associated with mortality outcomes (P-trend > 0.05 for all), but men who were taking ≥1000 mg supplemental calcium/d had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.33), which was primarily attributed to borderline statistically significant higher risk of CVD-specific mortality (RR: 1.22; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.51). For women, supplemental calcium was inversely associated with mortality from all causes [RR (95% CI): 0.90 (0.87, 0.94), 0.84 (0.80, 0.88), and 0.93 (0.87, 0.99) for intakes of 0.1 to <500, 500 to <1000, and ≥1000 mg/d, respectively; P-trend < 0.01]. Total calcium intake was inversely associated with mortality in women (P-trend < 0.01) but not in men; dietary calcium was not associated with all-cause mortality in either sex. In this cohort, associations of calcium intake and mortality varied by sex. For women, total and supplemental calcium intakes are associated with lower mortality, whereas for men, supplemental calcium intake ≥1000 mg/d may be associated with higher all-cause and CVD-specific mortality. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers

PubMed Central

Jackson, Monica C; Huang, Lan; Luo, Jun; Hachey, Mark; Feuer, Eric

2009-01-01

Background The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier) detection) has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*pop; and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. Results For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*pop had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*pop (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window) had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. Conclusion SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*pop perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for data with global clustering patterns should be used with caution since SatScan may reveal an incorrect spatial pattern even though it has enough power to reject a null hypothesis of homogeneous relative risk. Tango's method should be used for global clustering evaluation instead of SaTScan. PMID:19822013

Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers.

PubMed

Jackson, Monica C; Huang, Lan; Luo, Jun; Hachey, Mark; Feuer, Eric

2009-10-12

The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier) detection) has not been thoroughly investigated. We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*(pop); and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*(pop) had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*(pop) (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window) had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*(pop) perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for data with global clustering patterns should be used with caution since SatScan may reveal an incorrect spatial pattern even though it has enough power to reject a null hypothesis of homogeneous relative risk. Tango's method should be used for global clustering evaluation instead of SaTScan.

Performance of EuroSCORE II in a large US database: implications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

PubMed

Osnabrugge, Ruben L; Speir, Alan M; Head, Stuart J; Fonner, Clifford E; Fonner, Edwin; Kappetein, A Pieter; Rich, Jeffrey B

2014-09-01

Validation studies of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) have been limited to European datasets. Therefore, the aims of this study were to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II in a large multicentre US database, and compare it with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM). In addition, implications for patient selection for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were explored. EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM were calculated for 50 588 patients from a multi-institutional statewide database of all cardiac surgeries performed since 2003. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), observed vs expected (O:E) ratios and calibration plots. Analyses were performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (n = 40 871), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 4107), AVR + CABG (n = 3480), mitral valve (MV) replacement (n = 1071) and MV repair (n = 1059). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.1%. EuroSCORE II was outperformed by the STS-PROM in the overall cohort with regard to discrimination (AUC = 0.77 vs 0.81, respectively; P < 0.001) and calibration (O:E = 0.68 vs 0.80, respectively). Discrimination for CABG was worse with EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.77 vs STS-PROM: 0.81, P < 0.001). For other procedures discrimination was similar: AVR (AUC = 0.71 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.40), AVR + CABG (AUC = 0.72 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.47), MV repair (AUC = 0.82 vs STS-PROM: 0.86, P = 0.55) and MV replacement (AUC = 0.78 vs STS-PROM: 0.79, P = 0.69). Calibration of EuroSCORE II was worse for CABG (O:E = 0.68 vs STS-PROM: 0.80), similar in AVR + CABG (O:E = 0.76 vs STS-PROM: 0.70) and MV repair (O:E = 0.64 vs STS-PROM: 0.67), while EuroSCORE II may be more accurate in AVR (O:E = 0.96 vs STS-PROM: 0.76). Performance of both models improved when only recent cases (after 1 January 2008) were used. Ongoing TAVI trials aimed at patients with an estimated 4-10% risk of mortality are enrolling patients with mean estimated risks of 6.2% (EuroSCORE II) or 6.0% (STS-PROM), and an actual mortality rate of 4.6% (EuroSCORE II) or 4.8% (STS-PROM). In a large US multicentre database, the STS-PROM performs better than EuroSCORE II for CABG. However, EuroSCORE II is a reasonable alternative in low-risk CABG patients and in those undergoing other cardiac surgical procedures. Clinical trials and physicians that use these scores recruit and treat patients who are at a lower risk than anticipated. This potentially leads to overtreatment with an investigational device. Decision-making should not solely be based on risk scores, but should comprise multidisciplinary heart team discussions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Contribution of deletion in angiotensin-converting enzyme but not A1166C angiotensin II type-1 receptor gene polymorphisms to clinical outcomes in atherothrombotic disease.

PubMed

Le Hello, Claire; Fradin, Sabine; Morello, Rémy; Coffin, Olivier; Maïza, Dominique; Hamon, Martial

2011-04-01

Angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion (rs4340) and angiotensin II type 1 receptor A1166C (rs5186) gene polymorphisms may be involved in coronary heart disease (CHD). This study was designed to evaluate potential relationships between these polymorphisms and the risk of long-term all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients requiring revascularization for atherothrombotic disease (ATD) lesions. This prospective observational study concerned patients referred for supra-aortic vessel disease (SVD), CHD, peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD) or visceral artery disease (VAD). Collected data included ATD referral site, ATD symptoms, personal and familial medical histories, ATD extent, vascular risk factors, biological values, medication use and rs4340 and rs5186 polymorphisms. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. The secondary end point, MACE, included cardiovascular death, clinical ischemic event related to SVD, CHD, PAOD or VAD. The cohort comprised 956 patients of whom 872 (91.2%) were genotyped and followed for 21.1 ± 9.9 months. Patients were referred for SVD (25.9%), CHD (42.3%), PAOD (35.2%) or VAD (1.6%). All-cause mortality and MACE rates were 7.6 and 27.2%, respectively. When comparing I/D + D/D vs. I/I genotypes, rs4340 polymorphism was associated with higher all-cause mortality rates according to uni- and multivariate analyses (p=0.008 and 0.011, respectively). Other differences were not significant (rs4340 polymorphism and MACE, rs5186 polymorphism and all-cause mortality and MACE). No interaction was found between the polymorphisms. Other independent predictors of all-cause mortality included PAOD history, SVD history, body mass index <25 kg/m(2), HbA(1c) ≥6.5%, absence of dyslipidemia and no use of aspirin. rs4340 polymorphism is associated with long-term all-cause mortality in advanced ATD patients requiring revascularization, whereas rs5186 polymorphism does not. Copyright © 2011 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographic Distribution of Trauma Burden, Mortality, and Services in the United States: Does Availability Correspond to Patient Need?

PubMed

Rios-Diaz, Arturo J; Metcalfe, David; Olufajo, Olubode A; Zogg, Cheryl K; Yorkgitis, Brian; Singh, Mansher; Haider, Adil H; Salim, Ali

2016-12-01

The association between the need for trauma care and trauma services has not been characterized previously. We compared the distribution of trauma admissions with state-level availability of trauma centers (TCs), surgical critical care (SCC) providers, and SCC fellowships, and assessed the association between trauma care provision and state-level trauma mortality. We obtained 2013 state-level data on trauma admissions, TCs, SCC providers, SCC fellowship positions, per-capita income, population size, and age-adjusted mortality rates. Normalized densities (per million population [PMP]) were calculated and generalized linear models were used to test associations between provision of trauma services (higher-level TCs, SCC providers, and SCC fellowship positions) and trauma burden, per-capita income, and age-adjusted mortality rates. There were 1,345,024 trauma admissions (4,250 PMP), 2,496 SCC providers (7.89 PMP), and 1,987 TCs across the country, of which 521 were Level I or II (1.65 PMP). There was considerable variation between the top 5 and bottom 5 states in terms of Level I/Level II TCs and SCC surgeon availability (approximately 8.0/1.0), despite showing less variation in trauma admission density (1.5/1.0). Distribution of trauma admissions was positively associated with SCC provider density and age-adjusted trauma mortality (p ≤ 0.001), and inversely associated with per-capita income (p < 0.001). Age-adjusted mortality was inversely associated with the number of SCC providers PMP. For every additional SCC provider PMP, there was a decrease of 618 deaths per year. There is an inequitable distribution of trauma services across the US. Increases in the density of SCC providers are associated with decreases in mortality. There was no association between density of trauma admissions and location of Level I/Level II TCs. In the wake of efforts to regionalize TCs, additional efforts are needed to address disparities in the provision of quality care to trauma patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Key process indicators of mortality in the implementation of protocol-driven therapy for severe sepsis.

PubMed

Wang, Jiun-Long; Chin, Chun-Shih; Chang, Ming-Chen; Yi, Chi-Yuan; Shih, Sou-Jen; Hsu, Jeng-Yuan; Wu, Chieh-Liang

2009-10-01

Severe sepsis and septic shock are life-threatening disorders. Integrating treatments into a bundle strategy has been proposed to facilitate timely resuscitation, but is difficult to implement. We implemented protocol-driven therapy for severe sepsis, and analyzed retrospectively the key process indicators of mortality in managing sepsis. Continuous quality improvement was begun to implement a tailored protocol-driven therapy for sepsis in a 24-bed respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) of Taichung Veterans General Hospital from January 2007 to February 2008. Patients, who were admitted to the RICU directly, or within 24 hours, were enrolled if they met the criteria for severe sepsis and septic shock. Disease severity [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and lactate level], causes of sepsis, comorbidity and site of sepsis onset were recorded. Process-of-care indicators included resuscitation time (Tr-s), RICU bed availability (Ti-s) and the ratio of completing the elements of the protocol at 1, 2, 4 and 6 hours. The structure and process-of-care indicators reflated to mortality at 7 days after RICU admission and at RICU discharge were identified retrospectively. Eighty-six patients (mean age, 71 +/- 14 years, 72 men, 14 women, APACHE II, 25.0 +/- 7.0) were enrolled. APACHE II scores and lactate levels were higher for mortality than survival at 7 days after RICU admission (p < 0.01). For the process-of-care indicators, Ti-s (562.2 +/- 483.3 vs.1017.3 +/- 557.8 minutes, p = 0.03) and Tr-s (60.7 +/- 207.8 vs. 248.5 +/- 453.1 minutes, p = 0.07) were shorter for survival than mortality at 7 days after RICU admission. The logistic regression study showed that Tr-s was an important indicator. The ratio of completing the elements of protocols at 1, 2, 4 and 6 hours ranged from 70% to 90% and was not related to mortality. Protocol-driven therapy for sepsis was put into clinical practice. Early resuscitation and ICU bed availability were key process indicators in managing sepsis, to reduce mortality.

Family Planning and Child Survival: The Role of Reproductive Factors in Infant and Child Mortality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conly, Shanti R.

This report summarizes the evidence that family planning can reduce deaths of children under 5 years of age at a reasonable cost. The report also: (1) identifies the major reproductive factors associated with child mortality; (2) estimates the approximate reduction in child mortality that could be achieved through improved childbearing patterns;…

Factors among patients receiving prone positioning for the acute respiratory distress syndrome found useful for predicting mortality in the intensive care unit.

PubMed

Modrykamien, Ariel M; Daoud, Yahya

2018-01-01

Optimal mechanical ventilation management in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) involves the use of low tidal volumes and limited plateau pressure. Refractory hypoxemia may not respond to this strategy, requiring other interventions. The use of prone positioning in severe ARDS resulted in improvement in 28-day survival. To determine whether mechanical ventilation strategies or other parameters affected survival in patients undergoing prone positioning, a retrospective analysis was conducted of a consecutive series of patients with severe ARDS treated with prone positioning. Demographic and clinical information involving mechanical ventilation strategies, as well as other variables associated with prone positioning, was collected. The rate of in-hospital mortality was obtained, and previously described parameters were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Forty-three patients with severe ARDS were treated with prone positioning, and 27 (63%) died in the intensive care unit. Only three parameters were significant predictors of survival: APACHE II score ( P = 0.03), plateau pressure ( P = 0.02), and driving pressure ( P = 0.04). The ability of each of these parameters to predict mortality was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves. The area under the curve values for APACHE II, plateau pressure, and driving pressure were 0.74, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. In conclusion, in a group of patients with severe ARDS treated with prone positioning, only APACHE II, plateau pressure, and driving pressure were associated with mortality in the intensive care unit.

PubMed Central

Garceau, D.; Turgeon, M.; Gagnon, S.

1995-01-01

Diabetic nephropathy morbidity and mortality rates are high for both Type I and Type II diabetes. The various stages of diabetic nephropathy have been well documented for Type I diabetes, but not for Type II. We examine the natural history of this problem and recommended treatments, with emphasis on the characteristics of each type. PMID:7756921

Cardiovascular disease mortality in Asian Americans.

PubMed

Jose, Powell O; Frank, Ariel T H; Kapphahn, Kristopher I; Goldstein, Benjamin A; Eggleston, Karen; Hastings, Katherine G; Cullen, Mark R; Palaniappan, Latha P

2014-12-16

Asian Americans are a rapidly growing racial/ethnic group in the United States. Our current understanding of Asian-American cardiovascular disease mortality patterns is distorted by the aggregation of distinct subgroups. The purpose of the study was to examine heart disease and stroke mortality rates in Asian-American subgroups to determine racial/ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease mortality within the United States. We examined heart disease and stroke mortality rates for the 6 largest Asian-American subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) from 2003 to 2010. U.S. death records were used to identify race/ethnicity and cause of death by International Classification of Diseases-10th revision coding. Using both U.S. Census data and death record data, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), relative SMRs (rSMRs), and proportional mortality ratios were calculated for each sex and ethnic group relative to non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). In this study, 10,442,034 death records were examined. Whereas NHW men and women had the highest overall mortality rates, Asian Indian men and women and Filipino men had greater proportionate mortality burden from ischemic heart disease. The proportionate mortality burden of hypertensive heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, especially hemorrhagic stroke, was higher in every Asian-American subgroup compared with NHWs. The heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease mortality patterns among diverse Asian-American subgroups calls attention to the need for more research to help direct more specific treatment and prevention efforts, in particular with hypertension and stroke, to reduce health disparities for this growing population. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Periodontal disease, Porphyromonas gingivalis serum antibody levels and orodigestive cancer mortality.

PubMed

Ahn, Jiyoung; Segers, Stephanie; Hayes, Richard B

2012-05-01

Periodontitis, the progressive loss of the alveolar bone around the teeth and the major cause of tooth loss in adults, is due to oral microorganisms, including Porphyromonas gingivalis. Periodontitis is associated with a local overly aggressive immune response and a spectrum of systemic effects, but the role of this condition in orodigestive cancers is unclear. We prospectively examined clinically ascertained periodontitis (N = 12,605) and serum IgG immune response to P.gingivalis (N = 7852) in relation to orodigestive cancer mortality among men and women in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III. A detailed oral health exam was conducted from 1988 to 1994 in survey Phases I and II, whereas serum IgG for P.gingivalis was measured from 1991 to 1994 in Phase II only. One hundred and five orodigestive cancer deaths were ascertained through 31 December 2006. Periodontitis (moderate or severe) was associated with increased orodigestive cancer mortality [relative risks (RR) = 2.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17-4.45]; mortality risks also increased with increasing severity of periodontal disease (P trend = 0.01). Periodontitis-associated mortality was in excess for colorectal (RR = 3.58; 95% CI = 1.15-11.16) and possibly for pancreatic cancer (RR = 4.56; 95% CI = 0.93-22.29). Greater serum P.gingivalis IgG tended to be associated overall with increased orodigestive cancer mortality (P trend = 0.06); P.gingivalis-associated excess orodigestive mortality was also found for healthy subjects not exhibiting overt periodontal disease (RR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.23-4.14). Orodigestive cancer mortality is related to periodontitis and to the periodontal pathogen, P.gingivalis, independent of periodontal disease. Porphyromonas gingivalis is a biomarker for microbe-associated risk of death due to orodigestive cancer.

Periodontal disease, Porphyromonas gingivalis serum antibody levels and orodigestive cancer mortality

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jiyoung; Segers, Stephanie; Hayes, Richard B.

2012-01-01

Periodontitis, the progressive loss of the alveolar bone around the teeth and the major cause of tooth loss in adults, is due to oral microorganisms, including Porphyromonas gingivalis. Periodontitis is associated with a local overly aggressive immune response and a spectrum of systemic effects, but the role of this condition in orodigestive cancers is unclear. We prospectively examined clinically ascertained periodontitis (N = 12 605) and serum IgG immune response to P.gingivalis (N = 7852) in relation to orodigestive cancer mortality among men and women in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III. A detailed oral health exam was conducted from 1988 to 1994 in survey Phases I and II, whereas serum IgG for P.gingivalis was measured from 1991 to 1994 in Phase II only. One hundred and five orodigestive cancer deaths were ascertained through 31 December 2006. Periodontitis (moderate or severe) was associated with increased orodigestive cancer mortality [relative risks (RR) = 2.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17–4.45]; mortality risks also increased with increasing severity of periodontal disease (P trend = 0.01). Periodontitis-associated mortality was in excess for colorectal (RR = 3.58; 95% CI = 1.15–11.16) and possibly for pancreatic cancer (RR = 4.56; 95% CI = 0.93–22.29). Greater serum P.gingivalis IgG tended to be associated overall with increased orodigestive cancer mortality (P trend = 0.06); P.gingivalis-associated excess orodigestive mortality was also found for healthy subjects not exhibiting overt periodontal disease (RR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.23–4.14). Orodigestive cancer mortality is related to periodontitis and to the periodontal pathogen, P.gingivalis, independent of periodontal disease. Porphyromonas gingivalis is a biomarker for microbe-associated risk of death due to orodigestive cancer. PMID:22367402

Impact of use of angiotensin II receptor blocker on all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients: prospective cohort study using a propensity-score analysis.

PubMed

Tanaka, Marenao; Yamashita, Tomohisa; Koyama, Masayuki; Moniwa, Norihito; Ohno, Kohei; Mitsumata, Kaneto; Itoh, Takahito; Furuhashi, Masato; Ohnishi, Hirofumi; Yoshida, Hideaki; Tsuchihashi, Kazufumi; Miura, Tetsuji

2016-06-01

It is controversial whether treatment with an angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) or a calcium channel blocker (CCB) improves prognosis of hemodialysis (HD) patients. This study was designed as a multicenter prospective cohort study. HD patients (n = 1071) were enrolled from 22 institutes in January 2009 and followed up for 3 years. Patients with missing data, kidney transplantation or retraction of consent during the follow-up period (n = 204) were excluded, and 867 patients contributed to analysis of mortality. Propensity score (PS) for use of ARB and that for CCB was calculated using a multiple logistic regression model. ARB and CCB were prescribed in 45.6 and 54.7 % of patients at enrollment. During the 3-year follow-up period, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality rates were 18.8 and 5.1 %, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were lower in the ARB group than in the non-ARB group, though the mortality rates were similar in the CCB group and non-CCB group. In PS-stratified Cox regression analysis, ARB treatment was associated with 34 and 45 % reduction of all-cause death and cardiovascular death, respectively. In PS matching analysis, ARB treatment was associated with a significant reduction (46 % reduction) in the risk of all-cause death. A significant impact of CCB treatment on all-cause or cardiovascular mortality was not detected in PS analysis. The use of an ARB, but not a CCB, is associated with reduced all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities in patients on HD.

Age of red blood cells and outcome in acute kidney injury

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs) and, in particular, older RBCs has been associated with increased short-term mortality in critically ill patients. We evaluated the association between age of transfused RBCs and acute kidney injury (AKI), hospital, and 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational, predefined sub-study within the FINNish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study. This study included all elective ICU admissions with expected ICU stay of more than 24 hours and all emergency admissions from September to November 2011. To study the age of RBCs, we classified transfused patients into quartiles according to the age of oldest transfused RBC unit in the ICU. AKI was defined according to KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) criteria. Results Out of 1798 patients, 652 received at least one RBC unit. The median [interquartile range] age of the oldest RBC unit transfused was 12 [11-13] days in the freshest quartile and 21 [17-27] days in the quartiles 2 to 4. On logistic regression, RBC age was not associated with the development of KDIGO stage 3 AKI. Patients in the quartile of freshest RBCs had lower crude hospital and 90-day mortality rates compared to those in the quartiles of older blood. After adjustments, older RBC age was associated with significantly increased risk for hospital mortality. Age, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II)-score without age points, maximum Sequental Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and the total number of transfused RBC units were independently associated with 90-day mortality. Conclusions The age of transfused RBC units was independently associated with hospital mortality but not with 90-day mortality or KDIGO stage 3 AKI. The number of transfused RBC units was an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality. PMID:24093554

Alcohol intake and mortality among survivors of colorectal cancer: The Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort.

PubMed

Yang, Baiyu; Gapstur, Susan M; Newton, Christina C; Jacobs, Eric J; Campbell, Peter T

2017-06-01

Alcohol consumption is associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer, but to the authors' knowledge its influence on survival after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer is unclear. The authors investigated associations between prediagnosis and postdiagnosis alcohol intake with mortality among survivors of colorectal cancer. The authors identified 2458 men and women who were diagnosed with invasive, nonmetastatic colorectal cancer between 1992 (enrollment into the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort) and 2011. Alcohol consumption was self-reported at baseline and updated in 1997, 1999, 2003, and 2007. Postdiagnosis alcohol data were available for 1599 participants. Of the 2458 participants diagnosed with colorectal cancer, 1156 died during follow-up through 2012. Prediagnosis and postdiagnosis alcohol consumption were not found to be associated with all-cause mortality, except for an association between prediagnosis consumption of <2 drinks per day and a slightly lower risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk [RR], 0.86; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.74-1.00) compared with never drinking. Alcohol use was generally not associated with colorectal cancer-specific mortality, although there was some suggestion of increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality with postdiagnosis drinking (RR, 1.27 [95% CI, 0.87-1.86] for current drinking of <2 drinks/day and RR, 1.44 [95% CI, 0.80-2.60] for current drinking of ≥2 drinks/day). The results of the current study do not support an association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality among individuals with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer. The association between postdiagnosis drinking and colorectal cancer-specific mortality should be examined in larger studies of individuals diagnosed with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer. Cancer 2017;123:2006-2013. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Nutritional predictors of mortality after discharge in elderly patients on a medical ward.

PubMed

Buscemi, Silvio; Batsis, John A; Parrinello, Gaspare; Massenti, Fatima M; Rosafio, Giuseppe; Sciascia, Vittoria; Costa, Flavia; Pollina Addario, Sebastiano; Mendola, Serena; Barile, Anna M; Maniaci, Vincenza; Rini, Nadia; Caimi, Gregorio

2016-07-01

Malnutrition in elderly inpatients hospitalized on medical wards is a significant public health concern. The aim of this study was to investigate nutritional markers as mortality predictors following discharge in hospitalized medical elderly patients. This is a prospective observational cohort study with follow-up of 48 months. Two hundred and twenty-five individuals aged 60 and older admitted from the hospital emergency room in the past 48 h were investigated at the medical ward in the University hospital in Palermo (Italy). Anthropometric and clinical measurements, Mini-nutritional Assessment (MNA) questionnaire, bioelectrical (BIA) phase angle (PA), grip strength were obtained all within 48 h of admission. Mortality data were verified by means of mortality registry and analysed using Cox-proportional hazard models. Ninety (40%) participants died at the end of follow-up. There were significant relationships between PA, MNA score, age and gender on mortality. Patients in the lowest tertile of PA (< 4·6°) had higher mortality estimates [I vs II tertile: hazard ratio (HR) = 3·40; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2·01-5·77; II vs III tertile: HR = 3·83; 95% CI: 2·21-6·64; log-rank test: χ(2) = 43·6; P < 0·001]. Similarly, the survival curves demonstrated low MNA scores (< 22) were associated with higher mortality estimates (HR = 1·85; 95% CI: 1·22-2·81 χ(2) = 8·2; P = 0·004). The MNA and BIA-derived phase angle are reasonable tools to identify malnourished patients at high mortality risk and may represent useful markers in intervention trials in this high-risk subgroup. © 2016 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Relationship of serum uric acid and Killip class on mortality after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng-Wei; Liao, Pen-Chih; Chen, Kuo-Chin; Chiu, Yu-Wei; Liu, Yuan-Hung; Ke, Shin-Rong; Wu, Yen-Wen

2017-01-01

There is conflicting information regarding the association between hyperuricemia and survival in STEMI patients. Our study examined the interaction between hyperuricemia and Killip class on mortality of STEMI patients. We analyzed 951 consecutive STEMI patients between February 2006 and September 2012. Hyperuricemia was defined as SUA of at least 7mg/dL in males and 6mg/dL in females. Killip class I patients were divided into hyperuricemia and normouricemia groups. The Killip class I hyperuricemia and normouricemia groups had similar baseline and procedural characteristics, but the hyperuricemia group had significantly greater BMI, serum creatinine, and SUA, and a lower TIMI risk score (2, IQR: 1-4 vs. 3, IQR: 2-4, p=0.019). The hyperuricemia group also had greater 30-day and 1-year mortality rates (2.9% vs. 0.3%, p=0.022; 6.5% vs. 1.1%, p=0.002, respectively). However, hyperuricemia was not associated with mortality of patients in Killip classes II-IV or in the overall study population. Hyperuricemia was associated with increased mortality in subgroups of patients who were at least 65years-old, male, had BMI of 25kg/m 2 or less, were in Killip class I, without diabetes, and who did not receive intra-aortic balloon pump support. Hyperuricemia interacted with Killip class I in increasing the risk for 1-year mortality (p for interaction=0.038). Hyperuricemia increased the 1-year mortality of STEMI patients in Killip class I, but not of patients in Killip classes II-IV. An interaction of hyperuricemia and Killip class significantly affects the mortality of STEMI patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physiological limitation at alpine treeline: relationships of threshold responses of conifers to their establishment patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germino, M. J.; Lazarus, B.; Castanha, C.; Moyes, A. B.; Kueppers, L. M.

2014-12-01

An understanding of physiological limitations to tree establishment at alpine treeline form the basis for predicting how this climate-driven boundary will respond to climate shifts. Most research on this topic has focused on limitations related to carbon balance and growth of trees. Carbon balance could limit survival and establishment primarily through slow-acting, chronic means. We asked whether tree survival and thus establishment patterns reflect control by chronic effects in comparison to acute, threshold responses, such as survival of frost events. Seedling survivorship patterns were compared to thresholds in freezing (temperature causing leaf freezing, or freezing point, FP; and physiological response to freezing) and water status (turgor loss point, TLP; and related physiological adjustments). Subject seedlings were from forest, treeline, and alpine sites in the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment in Colorado, and included limber and lodgepole pine (a low-elevation species), and Engelmann Spruce. Preliminary results show survival increases with seedling age, but the only corresponding increase in stress acclimation was photosynthetic resistance to freezing and TLP, not FP. Differences in survivorship among the species were not consistent with variation in FP but they generally agreed with variation in photosynthetic resistance to deep freezing and to early-season drought avoidance. Mortality of limber pine increased 35% when minimum temperatures decreased below -9C, which compares with FPs of >-8.6C, and about 1/3 of its mortality occurred during cold/wet events, particularly in the alpine. The other major correlate of mortality is midsummer drying events, as previously reported. Also in limber pine, the TLP for year-old seedlings (-2.5 MPa) corresponded with seasonal-drought mortality. In summary, we show several examples of correspondence in physiological thresholds to mortality events within a species, although the relationships are not strong. Across species, photosynthetic resistance to freezing and early-season drought avoidance related well to mortality patterns. These results are generally more supportive of the role of chronic rather than acute climate effects in broad patterns of tree seedling establishment at treeline.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-01-01

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya. The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags. This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

Influence of the Scandinavian climate pattern on the UK asthma mortality: a time series and geospatial study.

PubMed

Majeed, Haris; Moore, G W K

2018-04-13

It is well known that climate variability and trends have an impact on human morbidity and mortality, especially during the winter. However, there are only a handful of studies that have undertaken quantitative investigations into this impact. We evaluate the association between the UK winter asthma mortality data to a well-established feature of the climate system, the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern. Time series analysis of monthly asthma mortality through the period of January 2001 to December 2015 was conducted, where the data were acquired from the UK's Office for National Statistics. The correlations between indices of important modes of climate variability impacting the UK such as the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as the SCA and the asthma mortality time series were computed. A grid point correlation analysis was also conducted with the asthma data with sea level pressure, surface wind and temperature data acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We find that sea level pressure and temperature fluctuations associated with the SCA explain ~20% (>95% CL) of variance in the UK asthma mortality through a period of 2001-2015. Furthermore, the highest winter peak in asthma mortality occurred in the year 2015, during which there were strong northwesterly winds over the UK that were the result of a sea level pressure pattern similar to that associated with the SCA. Our study emphasises the importance of incorporating large-scale geospatial analyses into future research of understanding diseases and its environmental impact on human health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Stand-structural effects on Heterobasidion abietinum-related mortality following drought events in Abies pinsapo.

PubMed

Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Bowker, Matthew A; Ochoa, Victoria; Carreira, José Antonio

2010-12-01

Climate change may affect tree-pathogen interactions. This possibility has important implications for drought-prone forests, where stand dynamics and disease pathogenicity are especially sensitive to climatic stress. In addition, stand structural attributes including density-dependent tree-to-tree competition may modulate the stands' resistance to drought events and pathogen outbreaks. To assess the effects of stand structure on root-rot-related mortality after severe droughts, we focused on Heterobasidion abietinum mortality in relict Spanish stands of Abies pinsapo, a drought-sensitive fir. We compared stand attributes and tree spatial patterns in three plots with H. abietinum root-rot disease and three plots without root-rot. Point-pattern analyses were used to investigate the scale and extent of mortality patterns and to test hypotheses related to the spread of the disease. Dendrochronology was used to date the year of death and to assess the association between droughts and growth decline. We applied a structural equation modelling approach to test if tree mortality occurs more rapidly than predicted by a simple distance model when trees are subjected to high tree-to-tree competition and following drought events. Contrary to expectations of drought mortality, the effect of precipitation on the year of death was strong and negative, indicating that a period of high precipitation induced an earlier tree death. Competition intensity, related to the size and density of neighbour trees, also induced an earlier tree death. The effect of distance to the disease focus was negligible except in combination with intensive competition. Our results indicate that infected trees have decreased ability to withstand drought stress, and demonstrate that tree-to-tree competition and fungal infection act as predisposing factors of forest decline and mortality.

Disparities in Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Declining Heart Disease Mortality by Race and Sex in the United States, 1973-2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Quick, Harrison; Pathak, Elizabeth B; Kramer, Michael R; Casper, Michele

2015-12-15

Examining small-area differences in the strength of declining heart disease mortality by race and sex provides important context for current racial and geographic disparities and identifies localities that could benefit from targeted interventions. We identified and described temporal trends in declining county-level heart disease mortality by race, sex, and geography between 1973 and 2010. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimated age-adjusted mortality with diseases of the heart listed as the underlying cause for 3099 counties. County-level percentage declines were calculated by race and sex for 3 time periods (1973-1985, 1986-1997, 1998-2010). Strong declines were statistically faster or no different than the total national decline in that time period. We observed county-level race-sex disparities in heart disease mortality trends. Continual (from 1973 to 2010) strong declines occurred in 73.2%, 44.6%, 15.5%, and 17.3% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Delayed (1998-2010) strong declines occurred in 15.4%, 42.0%, 75.5%, and 76.6% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Counties with the weakest patterns of decline were concentrated in the South. Since 1973, heart disease mortality has declined substantially for these race-sex groups. Patterns of decline differed by race and geography, reflecting potential disparities in national and local drivers of these declines. Better understanding of racial and geographic disparities in the diffusion of heart disease prevention and treatment may allow us to find clues to progress toward racial and geographic equity in heart disease mortality. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Breast-feeding patterns, time to initiation, and mortality risk among newborns in southern Nepal.

PubMed

Mullany, Luke C; Katz, Joanne; Li, Yue M; Khatry, Subarna K; LeClerq, Steven C; Darmstadt, Gary L; Tielsch, James M

2008-03-01

Initiation of breast-feeding within 1 h after birth has been associated with reduced neonatal mortality in a rural Ghanaian population. In South Asia, however, breast-feeding patterns and low birth weight rates differ and this relationship has not been quantified. Data were collected during a community-based randomized trial of the impact of topical chlorhexidine antisepsis interventions on neonatal mortality and morbidity in southern Nepal. In-home visits were conducted on d 1-4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 21, and 28 to collect longitudinal information on timing of initiation and pattern of breast-feeding. Multivariable regression modeling was used to estimate the association between death and breast-feeding initiation time. Analysis was based on 22,838 breast-fed newborns surviving to 48 h. Within 1 h of birth, 3.4% of infants were breast-fed and 56.6% were breast-fed within 24 h of birth. Partially breast-fed infants (72.6%) were at higher mortality risk [relative risk (RR) = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.32-2.39] than those exclusively breast-fed. There was a trend (P = 0.03) toward higher mortality with increasing delay in breast-feeding initiation. Mortality was higher among late (> or = 24 h) compared with early (< 24 h) initiators (RR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.08-1.86) after adjustment for low birth weight, preterm birth, and other covariates. Improvements in breast-feeding practices in this setting may reduce neonatal mortality substantially. Approximately 7.7 and 19.1% of all neonatal deaths may be avoided with universal initiation of breast-feeding within the first day or hour of life, respectively. Community-based breast-feeding promotion programs should remain a priority, with renewed emphasis on early initiation in addition to exclusiveness and duration of breast-feeding.

Hodgkin Lymphoma has a seasonal pattern of incidence and mortality that depends on latitude.

PubMed

Borchmann, Sven; Müller, Horst; Engert, Andreas

2017-11-02

Seasonal variations in incidence and mortality after a Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) diagnosis have been previously described with partly conflicting results. The goal of this analysis is to provide a comprehensive analysis of these seasonal variations. In total, 41,405 HL cases diagnosed between 1973 and 2012 in the 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries were included. Cosinor analysis and Cox proportional-hazards models were employed to analyze seasonality of incidence and mortality, respectively. HL shows a sinusoid seasonal incidence pattern (p < 0.001). Estimated incidence in March is 15.4% [95%-CI: 10.8-20.0] higher than in September. This sinusoid pattern is more pronounced at higher latitudes (p = 0.023). The risk of dying within the first three years after a HL diagnosis in winter is significantly increased compared to a HL diagnosis in summer at higher latitudes (HR = 1.082 [95%-CI: 1.009-1.161], p = 0.027). Furthermore, increasing northern latitude increases the additional mortality risk conferred by a diagnosis in winter (p interaction 0.033). The seasonality patterns presented here provide epidemiological evidence that Vitamin D might play a protective role in HL. Further evidence on the direct association between Vitamin D levels and the clinical course of HL needs to be collected to advance the understanding of the role of Vitamin D in HL.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

US County-Level Trends in Mortality Rates for Major Causes of Death, 1980-2014.

PubMed

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W; Morozoff, Chloe; Kutz, Michael J; Huynh, Chantal; Barber, Ryan M; Shackelford, Katya A; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J; Flaxman, Abraham D; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L

2016-12-13

County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. County of residence. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and interpersonal violence were elevated in southwestern counties, and mortality rates from chronic respiratory disease were highest in counties in eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia. Counties also varied widely in terms of the change in cause-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2014. For most causes (eg, neoplasms, neurological disorders, and self-harm and interpersonal violence), both increases and decreases in county-level mortality rates were observed. In this analysis of US cause-specific county-level mortality rates from 1980 through 2014, there were large between-county differences for every cause of death, although geographic patterns varied substantially by cause of death. The approach to county-level analyses with small area models used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into US disease-specific mortality time trends and their differences across geographic regions.

Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

2016-09-01

Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may continue to influence mortality patterns. The combination of spatial and non-spatial methods used in this paper has not been applied previously in the literature, and this study demonstrates the importance of such approaches for evaluating and improving public health intervention programs.

Workplace risk factors for cancer in the German rubber industry: Part 2. Mortality from non-respiratory cancers

PubMed Central

Straif, K.; Weiland, S. K.; Werner, B.; Chambless, L.; Mundt, K. A.; Keil, U.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine the mortality from non-respiratory cancers by work area among active and retired male workers of the German rubber industry. METHODS: A cohort of 11,633 male German workers was followed up for mortality from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 1991. Cohort members were active (n = 7536) or retired (n = 4127) on 1 January 1981 and had been employed for at least one year in one of five study plants producing tyres or technical rubber goods. Work histories were reconstructed from routinely documented "cost centre codes" and classified into six categories: I preparation of materials; II production of technical rubber goods; III production of tyres; IV storage and dispatch; V general service; VI others. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), controlling for age and calendar year and stratified by work area (employment in respective work area for at least one year) and time related variables (year of hire, lagged years of employment in work area) were calculated from national mortality rates as the reference. RESULTS: Significant increases in mortality were found for pharyngeal cancer in work area IV (three deaths, SMR 486, 95% CI 101 to 1419), oesophageal cancer in work area III (11 deaths, SMR 227, 95% CI 114 to 407), and leukaemia in work areas I (11 deaths, SMR 216; 95% CI 108 to 387) and II (14 deaths, SMR 187; 95% CI 102 to 213). Furthermore, increased SMRs were found for stomach cancer in work area I (22 deaths, SMR 134; 95% CI 84 to 203), colon cancer in work area II (27 deaths, SMR 131, 95% CI 86 to 191), prostatic cancer in work area V (27 deaths, SMR 152, 95% CI 99 to 221), and bladder cancer in work areas IV (six deaths, SMR 253; 95% CI 93 to 551) and V (12 deaths, SMR 159, 95% CI 82 to 279). Mortality from cancer of the liver or gall bladder, pancreas and kidney, and from lymphomas was not substantially increased in any of the work areas. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from cancer of several sites was associated with specific work areas. Some of these associations have been reported previously. Future analyses of our study will have to determine the role of specific exposures in the aetiology of these cancers.   PMID:9764110

Structure, process, and annual ICU mortality across 69 centers: United States Critical Illness and Injury Trials Group Critical Illness Outcomes Study.

PubMed

Checkley, William; Martin, Greg S; Brown, Samuel M; Chang, Steven Y; Dabbagh, Ousama; Fremont, Richard D; Girard, Timothy D; Rice, Todd W; Howell, Michael D; Johnson, Steven B; O'Brien, James; Park, Pauline K; Pastores, Stephen M; Patil, Namrata T; Pietropaoli, Anthony P; Putman, Maryann; Rotello, Leo; Siner, Jonathan; Sajid, Sahul; Murphy, David J; Sevransky, Jonathan E

2014-02-01

Hospital-level variations in structure and process may affect clinical outcomes in ICUs. We sought to characterize the organizational structure, processes of care, use of protocols, and standardized outcomes in a large sample of U.S. ICUs. We surveyed 69 ICUs about organization, size, volume, staffing, processes of care, use of protocols, and annual ICU mortality. ICUs participating in the United States Critical Illness and Injury Trials Group Critical Illness Outcomes Study. Sixty-nine intensivists completed the survey. We characterized structure and process variables across ICUs, investigated relationships between these variables and annual ICU mortality, and adjusted for illness severity using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II. Ninety-four ICU directors were invited to participate in the study and 69 ICUs (73%) were enrolled, of which 25 (36%) were medical, 24 (35%) were surgical, and 20 (29%) were of mixed type, and 64 (93%) were located in teaching hospitals with a median number of five trainees per ICU. Average annual ICU mortality was 10.8%, average Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 19.3, 58% were closed units, and 41% had a 24-hour in-house intensivist. In multivariable linear regression adjusted for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and multiple ICU structure and process factors, annual ICU mortality was lower in surgical ICUs than in medical ICUs (5.6% lower [95% CI, 2.4-8.8%]) or mixed ICUs (4.5% lower [95% CI, 0.4-8.7%]). We also found a lower annual ICU mortality among ICUs that had a daily plan of care review (5.8% lower [95% CI, 1.6-10.0%]) and a lower bed-to-nurse ratio (1.8% lower when the ratio decreased from 2:1 to 1.5:1 [95% CI, 0.25-3.4%]). In contrast, 24-hour intensivist coverage (p = 0.89) and closed ICU status (p = 0.16) were not associated with a lower annual ICU mortality. In a sample of 69 ICUs, a daily plan of care review and a lower bed-to-nurse ratio were both associated with a lower annual ICU mortality. In contrast to 24-hour intensivist staffing, improvement in team communication is a low-cost, process-targeted intervention strategy that may improve clinical outcomes in ICU patients.

The contribution of competition to tree mortality in old-growth coniferous forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, A.; Battles, J.; Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2011-01-01

Competition is a well-documented contributor to tree mortality in temperate forests, with numerous studies documenting a relationship between tree death and the competitive environment. Models frequently rely on competition as the only non-random mechanism affecting tree mortality. However, for mature forests, competition may cease to be the primary driver of mortality.We use a large, long-term dataset to study the importance of competition in determining tree mortality in old-growth forests on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A. We make use of the comparative spatial configuration of dead and live trees, changes in tree spatial pattern through time, and field assessments of contributors to an individual tree's death to quantify competitive effects.Competition was apparently a significant contributor to tree mortality in these forests. Trees that died tended to be in more competitive environments than trees that survived, and suppression frequently appeared as a factor contributing to mortality. On the other hand, based on spatial pattern analyses, only three of 14 plots demonstrated compelling evidence that competition was dominating mortality. Most of the rest of the plots fell within the expectation for random mortality, and three fit neither the random nor the competition model. These results suggest that while competition is often playing a significant role in tree mortality processes in these forests it only infrequently governs those processes. In addition, the field assessments indicated a substantial presence of biotic mortality agents in trees that died.While competition is almost certainly important, demographics in these forests cannot accurately be characterized without a better grasp of other mortality processes. In particular, we likely need a better understanding of biotic agents and their interactions with one another and with competition. ?? 2011.

Regional Inequalities in Lung Cancer Mortality in Belgium at the Beginning of the 21st Century: The Contribution of Individual and Area-Level Socioeconomic Status and Industrial Exposure.

PubMed

Hagedoorn, Paulien; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Willaert, Didier; Vanthomme, Katrien; Gadeyne, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Being a highly industrialized country with one of the highest male lung cancer mortality rates in Europe, Belgium is an interesting study area for lung cancer research. This study investigates geographical patterns in lung cancer mortality in Belgium. More specifically it probes into the contribution of individual as well as area-level characteristics to (sub-district patterns in) lung cancer mortality. Data from the 2001 census linked to register data from 2001-2011 are used, selecting all Belgian inhabitants aged 65+ at time of the census. Individual characteristics include education, housing status and home ownership. Urbanicity, unemployment rate, the percentage employed in mining and the percentage employed in other high-risk industries are included as sub-district characteristics. Regional variation in lung cancer mortality at sub-district level is estimated using directly age-standardized mortality rates. The association between lung cancer mortality and individual and area characteristics, and their impact on the variation of sub-district level is estimated using multilevel Poisson models. Significant sub-district variations in lung cancer mortality are observed. Individual characteristics explain a small share of this variation, while a large share is explained by sub-district characteristics. Individuals with a low socioeconomic status experience a higher lung cancer mortality risk. Among women, an association with lung cancer mortality is found for the sub-district characteristics urbanicity and unemployment rate, while for men lung cancer mortality was associated with the percentage employed in mining. Not just individual characteristics, but also area characteristics are thus important determinants of (regional differences in) lung cancer mortality.

Prognostic value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in hospitalised patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Jeong, Ki Young; Kim, Kyuseok; Kim, Tae Yun; Lee, Christopher C; Jo, Si On; Rhee, Joong Eui; Jo, You Hwan; Suh, Gil Joon; Singer, Adam J

2011-02-01

The prognostic role of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has not been evaluated. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether NT-proBNP level could predict mortality in hospitalised CAP patients. We performed a structured medical record review of all hospitalised CAP patients from May 2003 to October 2006, and classified patients into the 30-day survival and non-survival group. Data included demographic and clinical characteristics, and laboratory findings including NT-proBNP levels. The APACHE II scores, PSI (pneumonia severity index) and CURB65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and aged 65 or more) scores were calculated. Comparisons between survivors and non-survivors were made with χ(2), non-parametric tests and logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to compare the ability of NT-proBNP (adjusted for age, heart failure and creatinine), APACHE II, PSI and CURB65 to predict mortality. Of 502 patients, 61 (12.2%) died within 30 days. NT-proBNP levels were measured in 167 patients and were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors (median 841.7 (IQR 267.1-3137.3) pg/ml vs 3658.0 (1863.0-7025.0) pg/ml, p=0.019). NT-proBNP was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16 to 2.02, p=0.002). The AUC for NT-proBNP was 0.712 (95% CI, 0.613 to 0.812), which was comparable to those of PSI (0.749, p=0.531) and CURB65 (0.698, p=0.693), but inferior to that of APACHE II (0.831, p=0.037). Adding NT-proBNP to APACHE II, PSI and CURB65 did not significantly increase the AUCs, respectively. NT-proBNP level is an independent predictor of mortality in hospitalised CAP patients. The performance of NT-proBNP level is comparable to those of PSI and CURB65 in predicting mortality.

Clinical course of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in a cohort of infected patients from ten Colombian hospitals

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Sepsis has several clinical stages, and mortality rates are different for each stage. Our goal was to establish the evolution and the determinants of the progression of clinical stages, from infection to septic shock, over the first week, as well as their relationship to 7-day and 28-day mortality. Methods This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort of inpatients hospitalized in general wards or intensive care units (ICUs). The general estimating equations (GEE) model was used to estimate the risk of progression and the determinants of stages of infection over the first week. Cox regression with time-dependent covariates and fixed covariates was used to determine the factors related with 7-day and 28-day mortality, respectively. Results In 2681 patients we show that progression to severe sepsis and septic shock increases with intraabdominal and respiratory sources of infection [OR = 1,32; 95%IC = 1,20-1,46 and OR = 1.21, 95%CI = 1,11-1,33 respectively], as well as according to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) [OR = 1,03; 95%CI = 1,02-1,03] and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) [OR = 1,16; 95%CI = 1,14-1,17] scores. The variables related with first-week mortality were progression to severe sepsis [HR = 2,13; 95%CI = 1,13-4,03] and septic shock [HR = 3,00; 95%CI = 1,50-5.98], respiratory source of infection [HR = 1,76; 95%IC = 1,12-2,77], APACHE II [HR = 1,07; 95% CI = 1,04-1,10] and SOFA [HR = 1,09; 95%IC = 1,04-1,15] scores. Conclusions Intraabdominal and respiratory sources of infection, independently of SOFA and APACHE II scores, increase the risk of clinical progression to more severe stages of sepsis; and these factors, together with progression of the infection itself, are the main determinants of 7-day and 28-day mortality. PMID:23883312

Survival in stage I-III breast cancer patients by surgical treatment in a publicly funded health care system.

PubMed

Fisher, S; Gao, H; Yasui, Y; Dabbs, K; Winget, M

2015-06-01

Recent investigations of breast cancer survival in the United States suggest that patients who receive mastectomy have poorer survival than those who receive breast-conserving surgery (BCS) plus radiotherapy, despite clinically established equivalence. This study investigates breast cancer survival in the publicly funded health care system present in Alberta, Canada. Surgically treated stage I-III breast cancer cases diagnosed in Alberta from 2002 to 2010 were included. Demographic, treatment and mortality information were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. Unadjusted overall and breast cancer-specific mortality was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence curves, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate stage-specific mortality hazard estimates associated with surgical treatment received. A total of 14 939 cases of breast cancer (14 633 patients) were included in this study. The unadjusted 5-year all-cause survival probabilities for patients treated with BCS plus radiotherapy, mastectomy, and BCS alone were 94% (95% CI 93% to 95%), 83% (95% CI 82% to 84%) and 74% (95% CI 70% to 78%), respectively. Stage II and III patients who received mastectomy had a higher all-cause (stage II HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.13-1.48; stage III HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.24-2.45) and breast cancer-specific (stage II HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.09-1.76; stage III HR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.21-2.65) mortality hazard compared with those who received BCS plus radiotherapy, adjusting for patient and clinical characteristics. BCS alone was consistently associated with poor survival. Stage II and III breast cancer patients diagnosed in Alberta, Canada, who received mastectomy had a significantly higher all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality hazard compared with those who received BCS plus radiotherapy. We suggest greater efforts toward educating and encouraging patients to receive BCS plus radiotherapy rather than mastectomy when it is medically feasible and appropriate. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Incidence, Patterns, and Factors Predicting Mortality of Abdominal Injuries in Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Gad, Mohammad A; Saber, Aly; Farrag, Shereif; Shams, Mohamed E; Ellabban, Goda M

2012-01-01

Background: Abdominal trauma is a major public health problem for all nations and all socioeconomic strata. Aim: This study was designed to determine the incidence and patterns of abdominal injuries in trauma patients. Materials and Methods: We classified and identified the incidence and subtype of abdominal injuries and associated trauma, and identified variables related to morbidity and mortality. Results: Abdominal trauma was present in 248 of 300 cases; 172 patients with blunt abdominal trauma and 76 with penetrating. The most frequent type of abdominal trauma was blunt trauma; its most common cause was motor vehicle accident. Among patients with penetrating abdominal trauma, the most common cause was stabbing. Most abdominal trauma patients presented with other injuries, especially patients with blunt abdominal trauma. Mortality was higher among penetrating abdominal trauma patients. Conclusions: Type of abdominal trauma, associated injuries, and Revised Trauma Score are independent risk factors for mortality in abdominal trauma patients. PMID:22454826

Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies'.

PubMed

Kirkwood, Thomas B L

2015-04-19

In 1825, the actuary Benjamin Gompertz read a paper, 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies', to the Royal Society in which he showed that over much of the adult human lifespan, age-specific mortality rates increased in an exponential manner. Gompertz's work played an important role in shaping the emerging statistical science that underpins the pricing of life insurance and annuities. Latterly, as the subject of ageing itself became the focus of scientific study, the Gompertz model provided a powerful stimulus to examine the patterns of death across the life course not only in humans but also in a wide range of other organisms. The idea that the Gompertz model might constitute a fundamental 'law of mortality' has given way to the recognition that other patterns exist, not only across the species range but also in advanced old age. Nevertheless, Gompertz's way of representing the function expressive of the pattern of much of adult mortality retains considerable relevance for studying the factors that influence the intrinsic biology of ageing. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

Age-specific mortality patterns in Central Mozambique during and after the end of the Civil War.

PubMed

Noden, Bruce H; Pearson, R John C; Gomes, Aurelio

2011-05-26

In recent years, vigorous debate has developed concerning how conflicts contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, and in particular, the role of post-conflict situations in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. This study details the age-specific mortality patterns among the population in the central provincial capital of Beira, Mozambique, during and after the Mozambican civil war which ended in 1992. Data was collected from the death register at Beira's Central Hospital between 1985 and 2003 and descriptively analyzed. The data show two distinct periods: before and after the peace agreements in 1992. Before 1992 (during the civil war), the main impact of mortality was on children below 5 years of age, including still births, accounting for 58% of all deaths. After the war ended in 1992, the pattern shifted dramatically and rapidly to the 15-49 year old age group which accounted for 49% of all deaths by 2003. As under-5 mortality rates were decreasing at the end of the conflict, rates for 24-49 year old adults began to dramatically increase due to AIDS. This study demonstrates that strategies can be implemented during conflicts to decrease mortality rates in one vulnerable population but post-conflict dynamics can bring together other factors which contribute to the rapid spread of other infectious diseases in other vulnerable populations.

Tree mortality patterns following prescribed fire for Pinus and Abies across the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Philip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Brooks, Matthew

2012-01-01

The reintroduction of fire to historically fire-prone forests has been repeatedly shown to reduce understory fuels and promote resistance to high severity fire. However, there is concern that prescribed fire may also have unintended consequences, such as high rates of mortality for large trees and fire-tolerant Pinus species. To test this possibility we evaluated mortality patterns for two common genera in the western US, Pinus and Abies, using observations from a national-scale prescribed fire effects monitoring program. Our results show that mortality rates of trees >50 DBH were similar for Pinus (4.6% yr-1) and Abies (4.0% yr-1) 5 years following prescribed fires across seven sites in the southwestern US. In contrast, mortality rates of trees >50 cm DBH differed between Pinus (5.7% yr-1) and Abies (9.0% yr-1). Models of post-fire mortality probabilities suggested statistically significant differences between the genera (after including differences in bark thickness), but accounting for these differences resulted in only small improvements in model classification. Our results do not suggest unusually high post-fire mortality for large trees or for Pinus relative to the other common co-occurring genus, Abies, following prescribed fire in the southwestern US.

Investigation of cancer mortality inequalities between rural and urban areas in South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, Kyung-Mee

2016-02-01

Little is known about rural-urban cancer disparities, particularly in South Korea, and this study is to identify cancer-specific mortality inequalities between the rural and urban areas of the country. For 11 specific cancer sites, age-standardised mortality rates were analysed for the rural and urban administrative districts of South Korea during 2006-2011. The Poisson log linear regression models were employed to estimate cancer-specific mortality rates, and Bonferroni comparison method was used to identify rural-urban disparities. There were significant rural-urban disparities observed for all cancer sites except prostate, pancreas and leukaemia. The mortality rates of lung, liver and stomach cancers, the three most common cancers in the country, were observed to be significantly higher in rural areas than in metropolitan areas. In contrast, the reverse relationship was observed for the reproductive system (breast and uterus) and colon cancers. Central nervous system cancer mortality was observed to be significantly higher in rural areas than in non-metro urban areas. For the first time ever, significant rural-urban disparity patterns in cancer mortality rates in South Korea have been identified in this paper. Future investigations on cancer risk factors for the country should address these disparity patterns. © 2015 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Obesity-related mortality in France, Italy, and the United States: a comparison using multiple cause-of-death analysis

PubMed Central

Barbieri, Magali; Egidi, Viviana; Demuru, Elena; Frova, Luisa; Meslé, France; Pappagallo, Marilena

2018-01-01

Objectives We investigate the reporting of obesity on death certificates in three countries (France, Italy, and the United States) with different levels of prevalence, and we examine which causes are frequently associated with obesity. Methods We use cause-of-death data for all deaths at ages 50–89 in 2010–2011. Since obesity may not be the underlying cause (UC) of death, we compute age- and sex- standardized death rates considering all mentions of obesity (multiple causes or MC). We use cluster analyses to identify patterns of cause-of-death combinations. Results Obesity is selected as UC in no more than 20% of the deaths with a mention of obesity. Mortality levels, whether measured from the UC or the MC, are weakly related to levels of prevalence. Patterns of cause-of-death combinations are similar across the countries. In addition to strong links with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, we identify several less familiar associations. Conclusions Considering all mentions on the deaths certificates reduces the underestimation of obesity-related mortality based on the UC only. It also enables us to describe the various mortality patterns involving obesity. PMID:28497238

Analysis of environmental factors influencing salinity patterns, oyster growth, and mortality in lower Breton Sound Estuary, Louisiana using 20 years of data

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaPeyre, Megan K.; Geaghan, James; Decossas, Gary A.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

2016-01-01

Freshwater inflow characteristics define estuarine functioning by delivering nutrients, sediments, and freshwater, which affect biological resources and ultimately system production. Using 20 years of water quality, weather, and oyster growth and mortality data from Breton Sound Estuary (BSE), Louisiana, we examined the relationship of riverine, weather, and tidal influence on estuarine salinity, and the relationship of salinity to oyster growth and mortality. Mississippi River discharge was found to be the most important factor determining salinity patterns over oyster grounds within lower portions of BSE, with increased river flow associated with lowered salinities, while easterly winds associated with increased salinity were less influential. These patterns were consistent throughout the year. Salinity and temperature (season) were found to critically control oyster growth and mortality, suggesting that seasonal changes to river discharge affecting water quality over the oyster grounds have profound impacts on oyster populations. The management of oyster reefs in estuaries (such as BSE) requires an understanding of how estuarine hydrodynamics and salinity are influenced by forcing factors such as winds, river flow, and by the volume, timing, and location of controlled releases of riverine water.

Obesity-related mortality in France, Italy, and the United States: a comparison using multiple cause-of-death analysis.

PubMed

Barbieri, Magali; Désesquelles, Aline; Egidi, Viviana; Demuru, Elena; Frova, Luisa; Meslé, France; Pappagallo, Marilena

2017-07-01

We investigate the reporting of obesity on death certificates in three countries (France, Italy, and the United States) with different levels of prevalence, and we examine which causes are frequently associated with obesity. We use cause-of-death data for all deaths at ages 50-89 in 2010-2011. Since obesity may not be the underlying cause (UC) of death, we compute age- and sex-standardized death rates considering all mentions of obesity (multiple causes or MC). We use cluster analyses to identify patterns of cause-of-death combinations. Obesity is selected as UC in no more than 20% of the deaths with a mention of obesity. Mortality levels, whether measured from the UC or the MC, are weakly related to levels of prevalence. Patterns of cause-of-death combinations are similar across the countries. In addition to strong links with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, we identify several less familiar associations. Considering all mentions on the deaths certificates reduces the underestimation of obesity-related mortality based on the UC only. It also enables us to describe the various mortality patterns involving obesity.

Landscape‐level patterns in fawn survival across North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingery, Tess M.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

A landscape‐level meta‐analysis approach to examining early survival of ungulates may elucidate patterns in survival not evident from individual studies. Despite numerous efforts, the relationship between fawn survival and habitat characteristics remains unclear and there has been no attempt to examine trends in survival across landscape types with adequate replication. In 2015–2016, we radiomarked 98 white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns in 2 study areas in Pennsylvania. By using a meta‐analysis approach, we compared fawn survival estimates from across North America using published data from 29 populations in 16 states to identify patterns in survival and cause‐specific mortality related to landscape characteristics, predator communities, and deer population density. We modeled fawn survival relative to percentage of agricultural land cover and deer density. Estimated average survival to 3–6 months of age was 0.414 ± 0.062 (SE) in contiguous forest landscapes (no agriculture) and for every 10% increase in land area in agriculture, fawn survival increased 0.049 ± 0.014. We classified cause‐specific mortality as human‐caused, natural (excluding predation), and predation according to agriculturally dominated, forested, and mixed (i.e., both agricultural and forest cover) landscapes. Predation was the greatest source of mortality in all landscapes. Landscapes with mixed forest and agricultural cover had greater proportions and rates of human‐caused mortalities, and lower proportions and rates of mortality due to predators, when compared to forested landscapes. Proportion and rate of natural deaths did not differ among landscapes. We failed to detect any relationship between fawn survival and deer density. The results highlight the need to consider multiple spatial scales when accounting for factors that influence fawn survival. Furthermore, variation in mortality sources and rates among landscapes indicate the potential for altered landscape mosaics to influence fawn survival rates. Wildlife managers can use the meta‐analysis to identify factors that will facilitate comparisons of results among studies and advance a better understanding of patterns in fawn survival.

Cytokines and metabolic patterns in pediatric patients with critical illness.

PubMed

Briassoulis, George; Venkataraman, Shekhar; Thompson, Ann

2010-01-01

It is not known if cytokines, which are cell-derived mediators released during the host immune response to stress, affect metabolic response to stress during critical illness. The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether the metabolic response to stress is related to the inflammatory interleukin-6 (IL-6), 10 (IL-10), and other stress mediators' responses and to assess their relationships with different feeding patterns, nutritional markers, the severity of illness as assessed by the Multiple Organ System Failure (MOSF), the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score (PRISM), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and mortality in critically ill children. Patients were classified as hypermetabolic, normometabolic, and hypometabolic when the measured resting energy expenditures (REE) were >110%, 90-110% and, <90% of the predicted basal metabolic rate, respectively. The initial predominance of the hypometabolic pattern (48.6%) declined within 1 week of acute stress (20%), and the hypermetabolic patterns dominated only after 2 weeks (60%). Only oxygen consumption (VO(2)) and carbon dioxide production (VCO(2)) (P < .0001) but none of the cytokines and nutritional markers, were independently associated with a hypometabolic pattern. REE correlated with the IL-10 but not PRISM. In the presence of SIRS or sepsis, CRP, IL-6, IL-10, Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index (NI), and triglycerides--but not glucose, VO(2), or VCO(2) increased significantly. High IL-10 levels (P = .0000) and low measured REE (P = .0000) were independently associated with mortality (11.7%), which was higher in the hypometabolic compared to other metabolic patterns (P < .005). Our results showed that only VO(2) and VCO(2), but not IL-6 or IL-10, were associated with a hypometabolic pattern which predominated the acute phase of stress, and was associated with increased mortality. Although in SIRS or sepsis, the cytokine response was reliably reflected by increases in NI and triglycerides, it was different from the metabolic (VO(2), VCO(2)) or glucose response.

Cytokines and Metabolic Patterns in Pediatric Patients with Critical Illness

PubMed Central

Briassoulis, George; Venkataraman, Shekhar; Thompson, Ann

2010-01-01

It is not known if cytokines, which are cell-derived mediators released during the host immune response to stress, affect metabolic response to stress during critical illness. The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether the metabolic response to stress is related to the inflammatory interleukin-6 (IL-6), 10 (IL-10), and other stress mediators' responses and to assess their relationships with different feeding patterns, nutritional markers, the severity of illness as assessed by the Multiple Organ System Failure (MOSF), the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score (PRISM), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and mortality in critically ill children. Patients were classified as hypermetabolic, normometabolic, and hypometabolic when the measured resting energy expenditures (REE) were >110%, 90–110% and, <90% of the predicted basal metabolic rate, respectively. The initial predominance of the hypometabolic pattern (48.6%) declined within 1 week of acute stress (20%), and the hypermetabolic patterns dominated only after 2 weeks (60%). Only oxygen consumption (VO2) and carbon dioxide production (VCO2) (P < .0001) but none of the cytokines and nutritional markers, were independently associated with a hypometabolic pattern. REE correlated with the IL-10 but not PRISM. In the presence of SIRS or sepsis, CRP, IL-6, IL-10, Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index (NI), and triglycerides—but not glucose, VO2, or VCO2 increased significantly. High IL-10 levels (P = .0000) and low measured REE (P = .0000) were independently associated with mortality (11.7%), which was higher in the hypometabolic compared to other metabolic patterns (P < .005). Our results showed that only VO2 and VCO2, but not IL-6 or IL-10, were associated with a hypometabolic pattern which predominated the acute phase of stress, and was associated with increased mortality. Although in SIRS or sepsis, the cytokine response was reliably reflected by increases in NI and triglycerides, it was different from the metabolic (VO2, VCO2) or glucose response. PMID:20490277

Baseline Levels and Trimestral Variation of Triiodothyronine and Thyroxine and Their Association with Mortality in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Meuwese, Christiaan L.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Lindholm, Bengt; Qureshi, Abdul R.; Heimburger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter; Carrero, Juan J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Conflicting evidence exists with regard to the association of thyroid hormones and mortality in dialysis patients. This study assesses the association between basal and trimestral variation of thyroid stimulating hormone, triiodothyronine, and thyroxine and mortality. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In 210 prevalent hemodialysis patients, serum triiodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid stimulating hormone, and interleukin-6 were measured 3 months apart. Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths were registered during follow-up. Based on fluctuations along tertiles of distribution, four trimestral patterns were defined for each thyroid hormone: persistently low, decrease, increase, and persistently high. The association of baseline levels and trimestral variation with mortality was investigated with Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. Results During follow-up, 103 deaths occurred. Thyroid stimulating hormone levels did not associate with mortality. Patients with relatively low basal triiodothyronine concentrations had higher hazards of dying than patients with high levels. Longitudinally, patients with persistently low levels of triiodothyronine during the 3-month period had higher mortality hazards than those having persistently high levels. These associations were mainly attributable to cardiovascular-related mortality. The association between thyroxine and mortality was not altered after adjustment for triiodothyronine. Conclusions Hemodialysis patients with reduced triiodothyronine or thyroxine levels bear an increased mortality risk, especially due to cardiovascular causes. This was true when considering both baseline measurements and trimestral variation patterns. Our longitudinal design adds observational evidence supporting the hypothesis that the link may underlie a causal effect. PMID:22246282

Baseline levels and trimestral variation of triiodothyronine and thyroxine and their association with mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Meuwese, Christiaan L; Dekker, Friedo W; Lindholm, Bengt; Qureshi, Abdul R; Heimburger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter; Carrero, Juan J

2012-01-01

Conflicting evidence exists with regard to the association of thyroid hormones and mortality in dialysis patients. This study assesses the association between basal and trimestral variation of thyroid stimulating hormone, triiodothyronine, and thyroxine and mortality. In 210 prevalent hemodialysis patients, serum triiodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid stimulating hormone, and interleukin-6 were measured 3 months apart. Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths were registered during follow-up. Based on fluctuations along tertiles of distribution, four trimestral patterns were defined for each thyroid hormone: persistently low, decrease, increase, and persistently high. The association of baseline levels and trimestral variation with mortality was investigated with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. During follow-up, 103 deaths occurred. Thyroid stimulating hormone levels did not associate with mortality. Patients with relatively low basal triiodothyronine concentrations had higher hazards of dying than patients with high levels. Longitudinally, patients with persistently low levels of triiodothyronine during the 3-month period had higher mortality hazards than those having persistently high levels. These associations were mainly attributable to cardiovascular-related mortality. The association between thyroxine and mortality was not altered after adjustment for triiodothyronine. Hemodialysis patients with reduced triiodothyronine or thyroxine levels bear an increased mortality risk, especially due to cardiovascular causes. This was true when considering both baseline measurements and trimestral variation patterns. Our longitudinal design adds observational evidence supporting the hypothesis that the link may underlie a causal effect.

Retrospective evaluation of prognostic score performances in cirrhotic patients admitted to an intermediate care unit.

PubMed

Dupont, Benoît; Delvincourt, Maxime; Koné, Mamadou; du Cheyron, Damien; Ollivier-Hourmand, Isabelle; Piquet, Marie-Astrid; Terzi, Nicolas; Dao, Thông

2015-08-01

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients in the Intensive Care Unit requires the development of predictive tools for mortality. We aimed to evaluate the ability of different prognostic scores to predict hospital mortality in these patients. A single-centre retrospective analysis was conducted of 281 hospital stays of cirrhotic patients at an Intermediate Care Unit between June 2009 and December 2010. The performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SOFA), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II or III, Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na and the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLF) in predicting hospital mortality were compared. Mean age was 58.2±12.1 years; 77% were male. The main cause of admission was acute gastrointestinal bleeding (47%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 25.3%. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated that SOFA (0.82) MELD-Na (0.82) or MELD (0.81) scores at admission predicted in-hospital mortality better than Child-Pugh (0.76), SAPS II (0.77), SAPS III (0.75) or CLIF-C ACLF (0.75). We then developed the cirrhosis prognostic score (Ci-Pro), which performed better (0.89) than SOFA. SOFA, MELD and especially the Ci-Pro score show the best performance in predicting hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intermediate Care Unit. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality in severe trauma patients attended by emergency services in Navarre, Spain: validation of a new prediction model and comparison with the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II.

PubMed

Ali Ali, Bismil; Lefering, Rolf; Fortún Moral, Mariano; Belzunegui Otano, Tomás

2018-01-01

To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Risk was calculated with the MPMN and the RISCII. The performance of each model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision with respect to observed mortality. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We included 516 patients. The mean (SD) age was 56 (23) years, and 363 (70%) were males. Ninety patients (17.4%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality rates predicted by the MPMN and RISCII were 16.4% and 15.4%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.925 (95% CI, 0.902-0.952) for the MPMN and 0.941 (95% CI, 0.921-0.962) for the RISCII (P=0.269, DeLong test). Calibration statistics were 13.6 (P=.09) for the MPMN and 8.9 (P=.35) for the RISCII. Both the MPMN and the RISCII show good ability to discriminate risk and predict 30-day all-cause mortality in severe trauma patients.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of acute respiratory failure in the patients 90 years old and over.

PubMed

Chen, Wan-Ling; Chen, Chin-Ming; Kung, Shu-Chen; Wang, Ching-Min; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chao, Chien-Ming

2018-01-23

This retrospective cohort study investigated the outcomes and prognostic factors in nonagenarians (patients 90 years old or older) with acute respiratory failure. Between 2006 and 2016, all nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) were enrolled. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality and ventilator dependency were measured. A total of 173 nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 56 patients died during the hospital stay and the rate of in-hospital mortality was 32.4%. Patients with higher APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.91; 95 % CI, 1.55-22.45; p = 0.009, APACHE II scores ≥ 25 vs APACHE II scores < 15), use of vasoactive agent (adjust OR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.12-6.37; p = 0.03) and more organ dysfunction (adjusted OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 3.38-36.36, p < 0.001; ≥ 3 organ dysfunction vs ≤ 1 organ dysfunction) were more likely to die. Among the 117 survivors, 25 (21.4%) patients became dependent on MV. Female gender (adjusted OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.16-10.76, p = 0.027) and poor consciousness level (adjusted OR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.41-17.58, p = 0.013) were associated with MV dependency. In conclusion, the mortality rate of nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure was high, especially for those with higher APACHE II scores or more organ dysfunction.

[Surgical treatment of ishemic mitral regurgitation: repair, replacement or revascularization alone?].

PubMed

Vrenes, Mile; Velinović, Milos; Kocica, Mladen; Mikić, Aleksandar; Putnik, Svetozar; Djukić, Petar; Djordjević, Aleksandar

2010-01-01

Treatment of ischemic mitral regurgitation in patients that require revascularization of myocardium is still debatable. The aim of this study was to compare three surgical approaches: valve repair and revascularization; valve replacement and revascularization, and revascularization alone. In 2006 and 2007 at the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Belgrade, 1,040 patients with coronary disease underwent surgery. Forty-three patients (4.3%) had also mitral insufficiency 3-4+. The patients were examined clinically, echocardiographically and haemodynamically. In group I there were 14 (32.3%) patients, in group II 16 (37.2%) patients and in group III 3 (30.5%) patients. Ninety-three per cent of patients were classified as New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV, and three (7%) patients had congestive heart weakness with ejection fraction < or =30%. The decision as to surgical procedure was made by the surgeon. Postoperatively, patients were checked clinically and echocardiographically after 3, 6 and 12 months. The follow-up period was approximately 15 months (8-20). Hospital mortality for the whole group was 6.9% (3 patients). In group I mortality was 14.2% (2 patients), in group II 6.25% and in group III there was no mortality. Long term results, up to 15 months, showed 100% survival in groups I and II, and in group III one patient died (7.7%). Short term results upto 30 days were best in group III, but longer term results were better in groups I and II.

Factors Predicting Mortality in Midlife Adults with and without Down Syndrome Living with Family

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esbensen, A. J.; Seltzer, M. M.; Greenberg, J. S.

2007-01-01

Background: Little is known about the mortality of individuals with Down syndrome who have lived at home with their families throughout their lives. The current study evaluates the predictors, causes and patterns of mortality among co-residing individuals in midlife with Down syndrome as compared with co-residing individuals with ID owing to other…

Spatially random mortality in old-growth red pine forests of northern Minnesota

Treesearch

Tuomas ​Aakala; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato

2012-01-01

Characterizing the spatial distribution of tree mortality is critical to understanding forest dynamics, but empirical studies on these patterns under old-growth conditions are rare. This rarity is due in part to low mortality rates in old-growth forests, the study of which necessitates long observation periods, and the confounding influence of tree in-growth during...

Mortality Burden and Socioeconomic Status in India

PubMed Central

Po, June Y. T.; Subramanian, S. V.

2011-01-01

Background The dimensions along which mortality is patterned in India remains unclear. We examined the specific contribution of social castes, household income, assets, and monthly per capita consumption to mortality differentials in India. Methods and Findings Cross-sectional data on 217 363 individuals from 41 554 households from the 2004–2005 India Human Development Survey was analyzed using multiple logistic regressions. Mortality differentials across social castes were attenuated after adjusting for household economic factors such as income and assets. Individuals living in the lowest income and assets quintiles had an increased risk of mortality with odds ratio (OR) of 1.66 (95% CI  = 1.23–2.24) in the bottom income quintile and OR of 2.94 (95% CI  = 1.66–5.22) in the bottom asset quintile. Counter-intuitively, individuals living in households with lowest monthly consumption per capita had significantly lower probability of death (OR  = 0.27, 95% CI  = 0.20–0.38). Conclusions Mortality burden in India is largely patterned on economic dimensions as opposed to caste dimensions, though caste may play an important role in predicting economic opportunities. PMID:21347373

Changes in the pattern of mortality following the eradication of hyperendemic malaria from a highly susceptible community

PubMed Central

Giglioli, George

1972-01-01

The population of the sugar estates of the Guyana coastlands was 110 000 in 1966; malaria was eradicated between 1945 and 1951. A study has been made of the pattern of mortality before and after malaria eradication, during the 30-year period from 1937 to 1966. The decline in general mortality has greatly exceeded the fall in mortality specifically related to malaria and has continued for almost 10 years after registration of the last death from malaria. In infants, mortality has been reduced, mainly through a decline in the number of deaths from prematurity and congenital debility that were due mainly to malaria and its sequelae in the expectant mother. In children (1-14 years of age) the decline has resulted from the disappearance of malaria and chronic nephritis as causes of death. In adults, mortality has fallen mainly through the progressive decline in the incidence of a number of diseases not overtly related to malaria: acute and chronic respiratory diseases, chronic nephritis, and the anaemias. Cardiovascular diseases, on the contrary, have shown a tendency to increase since malaria was brought under control. PMID:4624339

Patterns of Hydrocephalus Caused by Congenital Toxoplasma gondii Infection Associate With Parasite Genetics.

PubMed

Hutson, Samuel L; Wheeler, Kelsey M; McLone, David; Frim, David; Penn, Richard; Swisher, Charles N; Heydemann, Peter T; Boyer, Kenneth M; Noble, A Gwendolyn; Rabiah, Peter; Withers, Shawn; Montoya, Jose G; Wroblewski, Kristen; Karrison, Theodore; Grigg, Michael E; McLeod, Rima

2015-12-15

Four anatomical patterns of hydrocephalus secondary to congenital Toxoplasma gondii infection were identified and characterized for infants enrolled in the National Collaborative Chicago-based Congenital Toxoplasmosis Study. Analysis of parasite serotype revealed that different anatomical patterns associate with Type-II vs Not-Exclusively Type-II strains (NE-II) (P = .035). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Updated Global Patterns of Drought and Heat-Induced Forest Die-off, and Ecohydrological Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.

2011-12-01

Ongoing climate changes - particularly increases in mean temperatures as well as frequencies, durations, and severities of extreme drought and heat - can amplify tree physiological stress and thereby drive increases in both background tree mortality rates and episodes of rapid, broad-scale forest die-off. Updates are presented to a recent global synthesis of documented tree mortality episodes attributed to drought and/or heat, further expanding the documented spatial distribution and demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types from tropical moist forests and savannas to temperate and boreal forests. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive substantial increases in both mean temperatures and the frequency/duration/severity of extreme drought and heat in many regions, recent episodes of broad-scale drought-induced forest mortality may reflect increasing global risks of forest die-off, even in environments not normally considered water-limited. Since vegetation cover patterns are closely and interactively linked with ecosystem water fluxes, episodes of massive forest die-off can be expected to significantly affect ecohydrological patterns and processes, ranging from runoff and erosion to evaporation and transpiration, often with nonlinear threshold responses expected. Diverse examples of such feedbacks between climate-induced forest mortality and ecohydrology are presented, ranging from detailed observations of linked changes in vegetation, runoff, and erosion in response to forest mortality in the southwestern US to Western Australia and Amazonian rainforest water cycling. Current research efforts to address the large knowledge gaps that at present hinder our ability to predict climate-induced forest mortality and associated ecohydrological responses are discussed.

Paleolithic and Mediterranean Diet Pattern Scores Are Inversely Associated with All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Adults123

PubMed Central

Whalen, Kristine A; Judd, Suzanne; McCullough, Marjorie L; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Bostick, Roberd M

2017-01-01

Background: Poor diet quality is associated with a higher risk of many chronic diseases that are among the leading causes of death in the United States. It has been hypothesized that evolutionary discordance may account for some of the higher incidence and mortality from these diseases. Objective: We investigated associations of 2 diet pattern scores, the Paleolithic and the Mediterranean, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study, a longitudinal cohort of black and white men and women ≥45 y of age. Methods: Participants completed questionnaires, including a Block food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ), at baseline and were contacted every 6 mo to determine their health status. Of the analytic cohort (n = 21,423), a total of 2513 participants died during a median follow-up of 6.25 y. We created diet scores from FFQ responses and assessed their associations with mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for major risk factors. Results: For those in the highest relative to the lowest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores, the multivariable adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were, respectively, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.89; P-trend < 0.01) and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.73; P-trend < 0.01). The corresponding HRs for all-cancer mortality were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.95; P-trend = 0.03) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.84; P-trend = 0.01), and for all-cardiovascular disease mortality they were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.00; P-trend = 0.06) and HR: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.88; P-trend = 0.01). Conclusions: Findings from this biracial prospective study suggest that diets closer to Paleolithic or Mediterranean diet patterns may be inversely associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:28179490

Paleolithic and Mediterranean Diet Pattern Scores Are Inversely Associated with All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Adults.

PubMed

Whalen, Kristine A; Judd, Suzanne; McCullough, Marjorie L; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Bostick, Roberd M

2017-04-01

Background: Poor diet quality is associated with a higher risk of many chronic diseases that are among the leading causes of death in the United States. It has been hypothesized that evolutionary discordance may account for some of the higher incidence and mortality from these diseases. Objective: We investigated associations of 2 diet pattern scores, the Paleolithic and the Mediterranean, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study, a longitudinal cohort of black and white men and women ≥45 y of age. Methods: Participants completed questionnaires, including a Block food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ), at baseline and were contacted every 6 mo to determine their health status. Of the analytic cohort ( n = 21,423), a total of 2513 participants died during a median follow-up of 6.25 y. We created diet scores from FFQ responses and assessed their associations with mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for major risk factors. Results: For those in the highest relative to the lowest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores, the multivariable adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were, respectively, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.89; P- trend < 0.01) and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.73; P- trend < 0.01). The corresponding HRs for all-cancer mortality were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.95; P- trend = 0.03) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.84; P- trend = 0.01), and for all-cardiovascular disease mortality they were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.00; P- trend = 0.06) and HR: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.88; P- trend = 0.01). Conclusions: Findings from this biracial prospective study suggest that diets closer to Paleolithic or Mediterranean diet patterns may be inversely associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

PubMed Central

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-01-01

Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries. PMID:15748289

Antibiotic Therapy for Very Low Birth Weigh Newborns in NICU

PubMed Central

Afjeh, Seyyed-Abolfazl; Sabzehei, Mohammad-Kazem; Fahimzad, Seyyed-Ali-Reza; Shiva, Farideh; Shamshiri, Ahmad-Reza; Esmaili, Fatemeh

2016-01-01

Background Prolonged empiric antibiotics therapy in neonates results in several adverse consequences including widespread antibiotic resistance, late onset sepsis (LOS), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), prolonged hospital course (HC) and increase in mortality rates. Objectives To assess the risk factors and the outcome of prolonged empiric antibiotic therapy in very low birth weight (VLBW) newborns. Materials and Methods Prospective study in VLBW neonates admitted to NICU and survived > 2 W, from July 2011 - June 2012. All relevant perinatal and postnatal data including duration of antibiotics therapy (Group I < 2W vs Group II > 2W) and outcome up to the time of discharge or death were documented and compared. Results Out of 145 newborns included in the study, 62 were in group I, and 83 in Group II. Average duration of antibiotic therapy was 14 days (range 3 - 62 days); duration in Group I and Group II was 10 ± 2.3 vs 25.5 ± 10.5 days. Hospital stay was 22.3 ± 11.5 vs 44.3 ± 14.7 days, respectively. Multiple regression analysis revealed following risk factors as significant for prolonged empiric antibiotic therapy: VLBW especially < 1000 g, (P < 0.001), maternal Illness (P = 0.003), chorioamnionitis (P = 0.048), multiple pregnancy (P = 0.03), non-invasive ventilation (P < 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (P < 0.001). Seventy (48.3%) infants developed LOS; 5 with NEC > stage II, 12 (8.3%) newborns died. Infant mortality alone and with LOS/NEC was higher in group II as compared to group I (P < 0.002 and < 0.001 respectively). Conclusions Prolonged empiric antibiotic therapy caused increasing rates of LOS, NEC, HC and infant mortality. PMID:27307961

Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

2012-07-01

Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

Trends in alcohol-related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980-2014: age, period and cohort variations.

PubMed

Piontek, Daniela; Kraus, Ludwig

2018-05-01

Several indicators suggest that the extent and trends of alcohol-related mortality differ between East and West Germany. Regional drinking patterns and differences in health-care systems are assumed to affect the risk of dying from an alcohol-induced disease. The study addresses two questions: (1) what are the unbiased and independent age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality trends in Germany; and (2) do these trends differ between East and West Germany? Data on alcohol-related mortality for East and West Germany came from the national causes of death register for the years 1980-2014. Analyses included all deaths fully attributable to alcohol based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10). Gender-stratified age-period-cohort analyses were conducted using the intrinsic estimator model. Age effects showed a concave pattern with a peak at ages 55-64 years in both regions. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) in East Germany were highest in the years 1990-1994 (men and women: IRR = 1.52) and declined thereafter. In West Germany, IRR were lowest in 1980-1984 (men: IRR = 0.81, women: IRR = 0.75) and stabilized at approximately 1.10 since 1995-1999. Cohort effects showed continuously lower IRR for those born after 1955-1959 in the East and those born after 1945-1949 in the West. Patterns for males and females were comparable. The results suggest that alcohol-related mortality showed different trends in East and West Germany, which can be explained partly by different drinking patterns before and changes in the health-care system after the reunification. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Computational Analysis of Intra-Ventricular Flow Pattern Under Partial and Full Support of BJUT-II VAD.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Gao, Bin; Chang, Yu

2017-02-27

BACKGROUND Partial support, as a novel support mode, has been widely applied in clinical practice and widely studied. However, the precise mechanism of partial support of LVAD in the intra-ventricular flow pattern is unclear. MATERIAL AND METHODS In this study, a patient-specific left ventricular geometric model was reconstructed based on CT data. The intra-ventricular flow pattern under 3 simulated conditions - "heart failure", "partial support", and "full support" - were simulated by using fluid-structure interaction (FSI). The blood flow pattern, wall shear stress (WSS), time-average wall shear stress (TAWSS), oscillatory shear index (OSI), and relative residence time (RRT) were calculated to evaluate the hemodynamic effects. RESULTS The results demonstrate that the intra-ventricular flow pattern is significantly changed by the support level of BJUT-II VAD. The intra-ventricular vortex was enhanced under partial support and was eliminated under full support, and the high OSI and RRT regions changed from the septum wall to the cardiac apex. CONCLUSIONS In brief, the support level of the BJUT-II VAD has significant effects on the intra-ventricular flow pattern. The partial support mode of BJUT-II VAD can enhance the intra-ventricular vortex, while the distribution of high OSI and RRT moved from the septum wall to the cardiac apex. Hence, the partial support mode of BJUT-II VAD can provide more benefit for intra-ventricular flow pattern.

Ramadan, Pregnancy, Nutrition, and Epidemiology.

PubMed

Stein, Aryeh D

2018-05-05

Ramadan is observed by 1.6 billion Muslims. In a paper published this month that uses data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in Burkina Faso, it is found that experiencing Ramadan in early pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of child mortality. Ramadan exposes observant individuals to a specific pattern of nutrition and other behaviors, including changes in sleep patterns. How these behaviors might result in child mortality is not yet understood, and the findings reported in the paper should be replicated in other settings.

Effect of metallo-β-lactamase production and multidrug resistance on clinical outcomes in patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infection: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Willmann, Matthias; Kuebart, Ines; Marschal, Matthias; Schröppel, Klaus; Vogel, Wichard; Flesch, Ingo; Markert, Uwe; Autenrieth, Ingo B; Hölzl, Florian; Peter, Silke

2013-11-01

Blood stream infections (BSI) with Pseudomonas aeruginosa lead to poor clinical outcomes. The worldwide emergence and spread of metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) producing, often multidrug-resistant organisms may further aggravate this problem. Our study aimed to investigate the effect of MBL-producing P. aeruginosa (MBL-PA) and various other resistance phenotypes on clinical outcomes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in three German hospitals. Medical files from 2006 until 2012 were studied, and a number of 113 patients with P. aeruginosa BSI were included. The presence of VIM, IMP and NDM genes was detected using molecular techniques. Genetic relatedness was assessed through multilocus sequence typing (MLST). The effect of resistance patterns or MBL production on clinical outcomes was investigated by using multivariate Cox regression models. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with MBL-PA and multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa. However, neither BSI with MBL-PA nor BSI with various resistance phenotypes of P. aeruginosa were independently associated with mortality or length of hospital stay. In multivariate models, the SAPS II score (HR 1.046), appropriate definitive treatment (HR range 0.25-0.26), and cardiovascular disease (HR range 0.44-0.46) were independent predictors of mortality. Concomitant infections were associated with an excess length of stay (HR < 1). Medication with appropriate antimicrobial agents at any time during the course of infection remains the key for improving clinical outcomes in patients with P. aeruginosa BSI and should be combined with a strict implementation of routine infection control measures.

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Ma, Qing-Bian; Fu, Yuan-Wei; Feng, Lu; Zhai, Qiang-Rong; Liang, Yang; Wu, Meng; Zheng, Ya-An

2017-07-05

Since the 1980s, severity of illness scoring systems has gained increasing popularity in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Physicians used them for predicting mortality and assessing illness severity in clinical trials. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) and its customized equation for Australasia (Australasia SAPS 3, SAPS 3 [AUS]) in predicting clinical prognosis and hospital mortality in emergency ICU (EICU). A retrospective analysis of the EICU including 463 patients was conducted between January 2013 and December 2015 in the EICU of Peking University Third Hospital. The worst physiological data of enrolled patients were collected within 24 h after admission to calculate SAPS 3 score and predicted mortality by regression equation. Discrimination between survivals and deaths was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test through calculating the ratio of observed-to-expected numbers of deaths which is known as the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). A total of 463 patients were enrolled in the study, and the observed hospital mortality was 26.1% (121/463). The patients enrolled were divided into survivors and nonsurvivors. Age, SAPS 3 score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Score II (APACHE II), and predicted mortality were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than survivors (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The AUC (95% confidence intervals [CI s]) for SAPS 3 score was 0.836 (0.796-0.876). The maximum of Youden's index, cutoff, sensitivity, and specificity of SAPS 3 score were 0.526%, 70.5 points, 66.9%, and 85.7%, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for SAPS 3 demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 10.25, P = 0.33, SMR (95% CI) = 0.63 (0.52-0.76). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for SAPS 3 (AUS) demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 9.55, P = 0.38, SMR (95% CI) = 0.68 (0.57-0.81). Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted for biochemical variables that were probably correlated to prognosis. Eventually, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), albumin,lactate and free triiodothyronine (FT3) were selected as independent risk factors for predicting prognosis. The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

The large-scale placebo-controlled beta-blocker studies in systolic heart failure revisited: results from CIBIS-II, COPERNICUS and SENIORS-SHF compared with stratified subsets from MERIT-HF.

PubMed

Wikstrand, J; Wedel, H; Castagno, D; McMurray, J J V

2014-02-01

The four pivotal beta-blocker trials in heart failure (HF) had different inclusion criteria, making comparison difficult without patient stratifying. The aim of this study was to compare, in similar patients, the effects of bisoprolol, metoprolol controlled release/extended release (CR/XL), carvedilol and nebivolol on (i) total mortality, (ii) all-cause mortality or hospitalization due to cardiovascular causes (time to first event), (iii) all-cause mortality or hospitalization because of HF and (iv) tolerability, defined as discontinuation of randomized treatment. We compared stratified (s ) subsets in MERIT-HF with patients in CIBIS-II [New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III/IV and ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35%] and COPERNICUS (NYHA III/IV and EF <25%) and in patients with systolic HF in SENIORS-SHF (age ≥ 70 years and EF ≤ 35%). The annual mortality rates in the placebo and beta-blocker arms were: (i) CIBIS-II (n = 2647), 13.2% vs. 8.8% (relative risk reduction 34%, 95% CI: 19-46, P < 0.0001) and MERIT-HFs (n = 2002), 14.8% vs. 8.6% (relative risk reduction 42%, 95% CI: 24-56, P < 0.0001); (ii) COPERNICUS (n = 2289), 19.7% vs. 12.8% (relative risk reduction 35%, 95% CI: 19-48, P = 0.0014) and MERIT-HFs (n = 795), 19.1% vs. 11.7% (relative risk reduction 39%; 95% CI: 11-58, P = 0.0086); (iii) SENIORS-SHF (n = 1359), 11.3% vs. 9.7% (relative risk reduction 16%, NS) and MERIT-HFs (n = 985), 14.8% vs. 10.1% (relative risk reduction 32%, 95% CI: 2-53, P = 0.038). The effects on the other outcomes assessed were similar. Analyses indicated fewer discontinuations from randomized treatment on beta-blockers compared with placebo in COPERNICUS and the MERIT-HFs subsets. The efficacy and tolerability of bisoprolol, carvedilol and metoprolol CR/XL are similar in patients with systolic HF, irrespective of NYHA class or ejection fraction. Nebivolol is less effective and not better tolerated. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Bronchial and bronchovascular sleeve resection for treatment of central lung tumors.

PubMed

Lausberg, H F; Graeter, T P; Wendler, O; Demertzis, S; Ukena, D; Schäfers, H J

2000-08-01

To improve postoperative pulmonary reserve, we have employed parenchyma-sparing resections for central lung tumors irrespective of pulmonary function. The results of lobectomy, pneumonectomy, and sleeve resection were analyzed retrospectively. From October 1995 to June 1999, 422 typical lung resections were performed for lung cancer. Of these, 301 were lobectomies (group I), 81 were sleeve resections (group II), and 40 were pneumonectomies (group III). Operative mortality was 2% in group I, 1.2% in group II, and 7.5% in group III (group I and II vs. group III, p<0.03). Mean time of intubation was 1.0+/-4.1 days in group I, 0.9+/-1.3 days in group II, and 3.6+/-11.2 days in group III (groups I and II vs. group III, p<0.01). The incidence of bronchial complications was 1.3% in group I, none in group II, and 7.5% in group III (group I and II vs group III, p<0.001). After 2 years, survival was 64% in group I, 61.9% in group II, and 56.1% in group III (p = NS). Freedom from local disease recurrence was 92.1% in group I, 95.7% in group II, and 90.9% in group III after 2 years (p = NS). Sleeve resection is a useful surgical option for the treatment of central lung tumors, thus avoiding pneumonectomy with its associated risks. Morbidity, early mortality, long-term survival, and recurrence of disease after sleeve resection are similar to those seen after lobectomy.

[Work and health status of workers of shoe manufacturing industries].

PubMed

Mironov, A I; Kirillov, V F; Bul'bulian, M A; Golubeva, A P; Kraeva, G K; Kuznetsova, A I; Nikolaeva, G M

2001-01-01

According to work conditions, severity and intensity, the main shoe-making occupations are assigned to III class of I-II jeopardy grade. If new technology applied, the work is assigned to I-II jeopardy class, being optimal--allowable. Increased mortality with liver cancer and lympholeucosis was revealed among workers contacting chloroprene.

Non-Invasive Mapping of Intraventricular Flow Patterns in Patients Treated with Left Ventricular Assist Devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miramontes, Marissa; Rossini, Lorenzo; Braun, Oscar; Brambatti, Michela; Almeida, Shone; Mizeracki, Adam; Martinez-Legazpi, Pablo; Benito, Yolanda; Bermejo, Javier; Kahn, Andrew; Adler, Eric; Del Álamo, Juan C.

2017-11-01

In heart failure patients, left ventricular (LV) assist devices (LVADs) decrease mortality and improve quality of life. We hypothesize echo color Doppler velocimetry (echo-CDV), an echocardiographic flow mapping modality, can non-invasively characterize the effect of LVAD support, optimize the device, thereby decreasing the stoke rate present in these patients. We used echo-CDV to image LV flow at baseline LVAD speed and during a ramp test in LVAD patients (Heartmate II, N =10). We tracked diastolic vortices and mapped blood stasis and cumulative shear. Compared to dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients without LVADs, the flow had a less prominent diastolic vortex ring, and transited directly from mitral valve to cannula. Residence time and shear were significantly lower compared to healthy controls and DCMs. Aortic regurgitation and a large LV vortex presence or a direct mitral jet towards the cannula affected blood stasis region location and size. Flow patterns, residence time and shear depended on LV geometry, valve function and LVAD speed in a patient specific manner. This new methodology could be used with standard echo, hemodynamics and clinical information to find the flow optimizing LAVD setting minimizing stasis for each patient.

Increased breast cancer mortality only in the lower education group: age-period-cohort effect in breast cancer mortality by educational level in South Korea, 1983-2012.

PubMed

Bahk, Jinwook; Jang, Sung-Mi; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee

2017-03-31

A steadily increasing pattern of breast cancer mortality has been reported in South Korea since the late 1980s. This paper explored the trends of educational inequalities of female breast cancer mortality between 1983 and 2012 in Korea, and conducted age-period-cohort (APC) analysis by educational level. Age-standardized mortality rates of breast cancer per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Relative index of inequality (RII) for breast cancer mortality was used as an inequality measure. APC analyses were conducted using the Web tool for APC analysis provided by the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. An increasing trend in breast cancer mortality among Korean women between 1983 and 2012 was due to the increased mortality of the lower education groups (i.e., no formal education or primary education and secondary education groups), not the highest education group. The breast cancer mortality was higher in women with a tertiary education than in women with no education or a primary education during 1983-1992, and the reverse was true in 1993-2012. Consequently, RII was changed from positive to negative associations in the early 2000s. The lower education groups had the increased breast cancer mortality and significant cohort and period effects between 1983 and 2012, whereas the highest group did not. APC analysis by socioeconomic position used in this study could provide an important clue for the causes on breast cancer mortality. The long-term monitoring of socioeconomic patterning in breast cancer risk factors is urgently needed.

Cardiovascular mortality sex differentials in selected East Asian and Western populations.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiaying; Booth, Heather; Dear, Keith; Tu, Edward Jow-Ching

2016-10-01

Explaining patterns in the sex ratio (male/female) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality would improve understanding of mortality transitions under modernisation. Little research has examined secular trends in this ratio across populations, taking age and cohort into account. We examine cohort effects in the ratios of CVD mortality (including ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease) among 4 East Asian populations that vary in the timing of their modernisation, and assess the effect of smoking on these patterns in comparison with Western populations. The sequential method for log-linear models is applied to analyse age, period and cohort effects for sex ratios. Age and cohort effects are fitted first, with population as offset; period effects are fitted in a second model using the fitted values from the first model as the offset. Lung cancer mortality serves as a proxy for smoking. Increases in sex ratios of CVD mortality began in earlier cohorts in Western than in East Asian populations. Once begun, increases were more rapid in East Asia. The cohort effect for the sex ratio of CVD mortality differs from that for lung cancer mortality. Trends in sex ratios of CVD mortality by cohort are similar before and after adjustment for lung cancer mortality in East Asia; the increasing trend across 1900-1945 cohorts is maintained in Western populations after adjustment. The sex ratio of CVD mortality has increased across successive cohorts living in increasingly modernised environments. There is scant evidence that this increase is attributable to changing sex-specific rates of smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hospital mortality in postoperative critically ill patients older than 80 years. Can we predict it at an early stage?

PubMed

Paz Martín, D; Aliaño Piña, M; Pérez Martín, F; Velaz Domínguez, S; Vázquez Vicente, B; Poza Hernández, P; Ávila Sánchez, F J

2016-01-01

To determine the incidence of in-hospital mortality throughout the post-surgical period of patients aged 80 or over who were admitted to the post-surgical critical care unit, as well as to assess the predictive capacity of those variables existing in the first 48hours on the in-hospital mortality. An observational retrospective cohort study conducted on postsurgical patients up to 80years old who were admitted to the unit between June 2011 and December 2013. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was used to determine the association between mortality and the independent variables. Of the 186 patients included, 9 (4.8%) died in the critical care unit, and 22 (11.8%) died in wards during hospital admission, giving a hospital mortality of 31 (16.7%). Among the 78 patients (42%) that underwent acute surgery, and the 108 who underwent elective surgery, there was a mortality rate of 19 (10.2%) and 12 (6.5%), respectively. As regards the variables analysed during the first 48hours of admission that showed to be hospital mortality risk factor were the need for mechanical ventilation over 48h, with an OR: 7.146 (95%CI: 1.563-32.664, P=.011) and the degree of the severity score on the APACHE II scale in the first 24hours, with an OR: 1.102 (95%CI: 1.005-1.208, P=.039). The incidence of hospital mortality in very old patients found in our study is comparable to that reported by other authors. Patients who need mechanical ventilation over 48h, and with higher scores in the APACHE II scale could be at a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of the model for end-stage liver disease score in patients undergoing left ventricular assist device implantation.

PubMed

Deo, Salil V; Daly, Richard C; Altarabsheh, Salah E; Hasin, Tal; Zhao, Yanjun; Shah, Ishan K; Stulak, John M; Boilson, Barry A; Schirger, John A; Joyce, Lyle D; Park, Soon J

2013-01-01

Axial flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation is an effective therapy for patients with advanced heart failure. As the preoperative hepatic and renal function play a critical role in determining adverse events after LVAD implantation, we analyzed the predictive role of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in determining in-hospital mortality after surgery. One hundred twenty-six patients underwent implant of an LVAD at our institution. Their individual preoperative MELD scores and perioperative total blood product usage (TBPU) were calculated. As LVAD implant as a reoperation is known to influence postoperative bleeding and mortality independently, the patients were divided into group I (first cardiac surgery) and group II (reoperative surgery). Group I: LVAD implantation was performed in 68/126 (54%) patients as their first cardiac surgery. The mean MELD score was 16.3 ± 6. Median TBPU for this group was 20.7 (0, 135) units. Inhospital mortality/30-day mortality was 4/68 (5.8%). Increasing MELD score (c-statistic = 0.88) and TBPU were found to be predictors of early mortality. An increasing MELD score was associated with more TBPU (p < 0.01) with a 10.9 ± 3 TBPU increase per a 10 unit rise in the MELD score. Group II: Of the 126 patients, 58 (46%) underwent LVAD implantation as a reoperation. Mean MELD score for these patients was 16 ± 5. Inhospital mortality/30-day mortality in this group was 12% and median TBPU was 30 (4,153) units. The MELD score was not predictive of inhospital mortality in these patients (p = 0.97). The MELD score is predictive of early mortality in patients undergoing LVAD implantation as their first cardiac surgery. Use of this score to select patients for LVAD implantation may be appropriate.

Clinical Predictors of Hospital Mortality Differ Between Direct and Indirect ARDS.

PubMed

Luo, Liang; Shaver, Ciara M; Zhao, Zhiguo; Koyama, Tatsuki; Calfee, Carolyn S; Bastarache, Julie A; Ware, Lorraine B

2017-04-01

Direct (pulmonary) and indirect (extrapulmonary) ARDS are distinct syndromes with important pathophysiologic differences. The goal of this study was to determine whether clinical characteristics and predictors of mortality differ between direct or indirect ARDS. This retrospective observational cohort study included 417 patients with ARDS. Each patient was classified as having direct (pneumonia or aspiration, n = 250) or indirect (nonpulmonary sepsis or pancreatitis, n = 167) ARDS. Patients with direct ARDS had higher lung injury scores (3.0 vs 2.8; P < .001), lower Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scores (51 vs 62; P < .001), lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (27 vs 30; P < .001), and fewer nonpulmonary organ failures (1 vs 2; P < .001) compared with patients with indirect ARDS. Hospital mortality was similar (28% vs 31%). In patients with direct ARDS, age (OR, 1.29 per 10 years; P = .01; test for interaction, P = .03), lung injury scores (OR, 2.29 per point; P = .001; test for interaction, P = .058), and number of nonpulmonary organ failures (OR, 1.67; P = .01) were independent risk factors for increased hospital mortality. Preexisting diabetes mellitus was an independent risk factor for reduced hospital mortality (OR, 0.47; P = .04; test for interaction, P = .02). In indirect ARDS, only the number of organ failures was an independent predictor of mortality (OR, 2.08; P < .001). Despite lower severity of illness and fewer organ failures, patients with direct ARDS had mortality rates similar to patients with indirect ARDS. Factors previously associated with mortality during ARDS were only associated with mortality in direct ARDS. These findings suggest that direct and indirect ARDS have distinct features that may differentially affect risk prediction and clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Municipal mortality due to thyroid cancer in Spain

PubMed Central

Lope, Virginia; Pollán, Marina; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; Ramis, Rebeca; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2006-01-01

Background Thyroid cancer is a tumor with a low but growing incidence in Spain. This study sought to depict its spatial municipal mortality pattern, using the classic model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Methods It was possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 municipal areas. Maps were plotted depicting standardized mortality ratios, smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the posterior probability that RR > 1. Results From 1989 to 1998 a total of 2,538 thyroid cancer deaths were registered in 1,041 municipalities. The highest relative risks were mostly situated in the Canary Islands, the province of Lugo, the east of La Coruña (Corunna) and western areas of Asturias and Orense. Conclusion The observed mortality pattern coincides with areas in Spain where goiter has been declared endemic. The higher frequency in these same areas of undifferentiated, more aggressive carcinomas could be reflected in the mortality figures. Other unknown genetic or environmental factors could also play a role in the etiology of this tumor. PMID:17173668

Factors associated with mortality of patients with myxoedema coma: prospective study in 11 cases treated in a single institution.

PubMed

Rodríguez, I; Fluiters, E; Pérez-Méndez, L F; Luna, R; Páramo, C; García-Mayor, R V

2004-02-01

This study was carried out to investigate the clinical and biochemical factors which might be of importance in predicting the outcome of patients with myxoedema coma. Eleven patients (ten female) aged 68.1+/-19.5 years attended our institution over a period of 18 years. Glasgow and APACHE II scores and serum free thyroxine and TSH were measured in all the patients on entry. Patients were selected at random to be treated with two different regimens of l-thyroxine. Four patients died with the mortality rate being 36.4%. The patients in coma at entry had significantly higher mortality rates than those with minor degrees of consciousness (75% vs 14.3% respectively, P=0.04). The surviving patients had significantly higher Glasgow scores than those who died (11.85+/-2.3 vs 5.25+/-2.2 respectively, P<0.001). Comparison of the mean values of APACHE II scores between the surviving group and those who died was significantly different (18.0+/-2.08 vs 31.5+/-2.08 respectively, P<0.0001). The degree of consciousness, the Glasgow score and the severity of the illness measured by APACHE II score on entry were the main factors that determined the post-treatment outcome of patients with myxoedema coma.

Early cavopulmonary anastomosis in very young infants after the Norwood procedure: impact on oxygenation, resource utilization, and mortality.

PubMed

Jaquiss, Robert D B; Ghanayem, Nancy S; Hoffman, George M; Fedderly, Raymond T; Cava, Joseph R; Mussatto, Kathleen A; Tweddell, James S

2004-04-01

The optimal timing of second-stage palliation after Norwood operations remains undefined. Advantages of early cavopulmonary anastomosis are early elimination of volume load and shortening the high-risk interstage period. Potential disadvantages include severe cyanosis, prolonged pleural drainage and hospitalization, and excess mortality. We reviewed our recent experience to evaluate the safety of early cavopulmonary anastomosis. Eighty-five consecutive patients undergoing post-Norwood operation cavopulmonary anastomosis were divided into group I (cavopulmonary anastomosis at <4 months; n = 33) and group II (cavopulmonary anastomosis at >4 months; n = 52). Groups were compared for age; size; early and late mortality; preoperative, initial postoperative, and discharge oxygen saturation; and duration of mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit stay, pleural drainage, and hospitalization. Group I patients were younger than group II patients (94 +/- 21 days vs 165 +/- 44 days, respectively; P <.001) and smaller (4.8 +/- 0.8 kg vs 5.8 +/- 0.9 kg; P <.001). The preoperative oxygen saturation was not different (group I, 75% +/- 10%; group II, 78% +/- 8%; P =.142). The oxygen saturation was lower immediately after surgery in group I compared with group II (75% +/- 7% vs 81% +/- 7%, respectively; P <.001) but not by discharge (group I, 79% +/- 4%; group II, 80% +/- 4%). Younger patients were ventilated longer (62 +/- 86 hours vs 19 +/- 42 hours; P =.001), in the intensive care unit longer (130 +/- 111 hours vs 104 +/- 94 hours; P =.049), hospitalized longer (12.5 +/- 11.5 days vs 10.3 +/- 14.8 days; P =.012), and required longer pleural drainage (106 +/- 45 hours vs 104 +/- 93 hours; P =.046). Hospital survival was 100% in both groups. Actuarial survival to 12 months was 96% +/- 4% for group I and 96% +/- 3% for group II. Early cavopulmonary anastomosis after the Norwood operation is safe. Younger patients are more cyanotic initially after surgery and have a longer duration of mechanical ventilation, pleural drainage, intensive care unit stay, and hospitalization.

Gamma rays induce DNA damage and oxidative stress associated with impaired growth and reproduction in the copepod Tigriopus japonicus.

PubMed

Han, Jeonghoon; Won, Eun-Ji; Lee, Bo-Young; Hwang, Un-Ki; Kim, Il-Chan; Yim, Joung Han; Leung, Kenneth Mei Yee; Lee, Yong Sung; Lee, Jae-Seong

2014-07-01

Nuclear radioisotope accidents are potentially ecologically devastating due to their impact on marine organisms. To examine the effects of exposure of a marine organism to radioisotopes, we irradiated the intertidal copepod Tigriopus japonicus with several doses of gamma radiation and analyzed the effects on mortality, fecundity, and molting by assessing antioxidant enzyme activities and gene expression patterns. No mortality was observed at 96h, even in response to exposure to a high dose (800Gy) of radiation, but mortality rate was significantly increased 120h (5 days) after exposure to 600 or 800Gy gamma ray radiation. We observed a dose-dependent reduction in fecundity of ovigerous females; even the group irradiated with 50Gy showed a significant reduction in fecundity, suggesting that gamma rays are likely to have a population level effect. In addition, we observed growth retardation, particularly at the nauplius stage, in individuals after gamma irradiation. In fact, nauplii irradiated with more than 200Gy, though able to molt to copepodite stage 1, did not develop into adults. Upon gamma radiation, T. japonicus showed a dose-dependent increase in reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, the activities of several antioxidant enzymes, and expression of double-stranded DNA break damage genes (e.g. DNA-PK, Ku70, Ku80). At a low level (sub-lethal dose) of gamma irradiation, we found dose-dependent upregulation of p53, implying cellular damage in T. japonicus in response to sub-lethal doses of gamma irradiation, suggesting that T. japonicus is not susceptible to sub-lethal doses of gamma irradiation. Additionally, antioxidant genes, phase II enzyme (e.g. GSTs), and cellular chaperone genes (e.g. Hsps) that are involved in cellular defense mechanisms also showed the same expression patterns for sublethal doses of gamma irradiation (50-200Gy). These findings indicate that sublethal doses of gamma radiation can induce oxidative stress-mediated DNA damage and increase the expression of antioxidant enzymes and proteins with chaperone-related functions, thereby significantly affecting life history parameters such as fecundity and molting in the copepod T. japonicus. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Value of the SYNTAX Score II in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Ryan, Nicola; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Jiménez-Quevedo, Pilar; Biagioni, Corina; Salinas, Pablo; Aldazábal, Andrés; Cerrato, Enrico; Gonzalo, Nieves; Del Trigo, María; Núñez-Gil, Iván; Fernández-Ortiz, Antonio; Macaya, Carlos; Escaned, Javier

2017-11-27

The predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SS) for clinical outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is very limited and could potentially be improved by the combination of anatomic and clinical variables, the SS-II. We aimed to evaluate the value of the SS-II in predicting outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI. A total of 402 patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis undergoing transfemoral TAVI were included. Preprocedural TAVI angiograms were reviewed and the SS-I and SS-II were calculated using the SS algorithms. Patients were stratified in 3 groups according to SS-II tertiles. The coprimary endpoints were all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite of all-cause death, cerebrovascular event, or myocardial infarction at 1 year. Increased SS-II was associated with higher 30-day mortality (P=.036) and major bleeding (P=.015). The 1-year risk of death and MACE was higher among patients in the 3rd SS-II tertile (HR, 2.60; P=.002 and HR, 2.66; P<.001) and was similar among patients in the 2nd tertile (HR, 1.27; P=.507 and HR, 1.05; P=.895) compared with patients in the 1st tertile. The highest SS-II tertile was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (P=.046) and MACE (P=.001). The SS-II seems more suited to predict clinical outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI than the SS-I. Increased SS-II was associated with poorer clinical outcomes at 1 and 4 years post-TAVI, independently of the presence of coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Patterns of Coarse Woody Debris in Hardwood Forests across a Chronosequence of Ash Mortality Due to the Emerald Ash Borer (Agrilus planipennis)

Treesearch

Matt Higham; Brian M. Hoven; David L. Gorchov; Kathleen S. Knight

2017-01-01

The invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) (EAB) is causing widespread ash (Fraxinus spp.) mortality in 25 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. We investigated the impact of EAB on coarse woody debris (CWD) volume across 24 sites in western and central Ohio, USA, representing a chronosequence of ash mortality,...

Multidrug Resistance Acinetobacter Bacteremia Secondary to Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia: Risk Factors and Outcome.

PubMed

Brotfain, Evgeni; Borer, Abraham; Koyfman, Leonid; Saidel-Odes, Lisa; Frenkel, Amit; Gruenbaum, Shaun E; Rosenzweig, Vsevolod; Zlotnik, Alexander; Klein, Moti

2017-10-01

Acinetobacter baumannii is a multidrug resistant (MDR), gram-negative bacterium commonly implicated in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in critically ill patients. Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) with VAP often subsequently develop A baumannii bacteremia, which may significantly worsen outcomes. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical and laboratory records of 129 ICU patients spanning 6 years with MDR A baumannii VAP; 46 (35%) of these patients had concomitant MDR A baumannii bacteremia. The ICU mortality rate was higher in patients with VAP having A baumannii bacteremia compared to nonbacteremic patients (32.4% vs 9.6% respectively, P < .005). Age >65 years, an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score higher than 20, a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score higher than 7 on the day of bacteremia, and the presence of comorbid disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and chronic renal failure) were found to be independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in this population. Multidrug resistant A baumannii was not an independent risk factor for mortality. Although the presence of comorbid diseases (COPD and chronic renal failure) and severity of disease (APACHE > 20 and SOFA >7) were found to be independent risk factors for ICU mortality, MDR A baumannii bacteremia was not an independent risk factor for mortality in our critically ill population.

An analysis of tree mortality using high resolution remotely-sensed data for mixed-conifer forests in San Diego county

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Mary Pyott

ABSTRACT An Analysis of Tree Mortality Using High Resolution Remotely-Sensed Data for Mixed-Conifer Forests in San Diego County by Mary Pyott Freeman The montane mixed-conifer forests of San Diego County are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality, which is defined as dieback where whole stands are affected. This mortality is likely the result of the complex interaction of many variables, such as altered fire regimes, climatic conditions such as drought, as well as forest pathogens and past management strategies. Conifer tree mortality and its spatial pattern and change over time were examined in three components. In component 1, two remote sensing approaches were compared for their effectiveness in delineating dead trees, a spatial contextual approach and an OBIA (object based image analysis) approach, utilizing various dates and spatial resolutions of airborne image data. For each approach transforms and masking techniques were explored, which were found to improve classifications, and an object-based assessment approach was tested. In component 2, dead tree maps produced by the most effective techniques derived from component 1 were utilized for point pattern and vector analyses to further understand spatio-temporal changes in tree mortality for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2005 for three study areas: Palomar, Volcan and Laguna mountains. Plot-based fieldwork was conducted to further assess mortality patterns. Results indicate that conifer mortality was significantly clustered, increased substantially between 2002 and 2005, and was non-random with respect to tree species and diameter class sizes. In component 3, multiple environmental variables were used in Generalized Linear Model (GLM-logistic regression) and decision tree classifier model development, revealing the importance of climate and topographic factors such as precipitation and elevation, in being able to predict areas of high risk for tree mortality. The results from this study highlight the importance of multi-scale spatial as well as temporal analyses, in order to understand mixed-conifer forest structure, dynamics, and processes of decline, which can lead to more sustainable management of forests with continued natural and anthropogenic disturbance.

Lake Michigan's capacity to support lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and other salmonines: an estimate based on the status of prey populations in the 1970s

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eck, Gary W.; Brown, Edward H.

1985-01-01

We used a mass balance equation relating total mortality of age II and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) to their removals by predatory fish and other sources of mortality as the basis for estimating that the forage base in Lake Michigan could support an additional 13 000 to 21 000 t of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) or a total lake trout biomass between 15 000 and 23 000 t. This biomass estimate is projected with biomasses of other trout and salmon held at 1979 levels. Major premises of this approach are that (1) the sustained availability of age II and older alewives to salmonines will ultimately limit the expansion of salmonine stocks, (2) the alewife population was oscillating without trend during 1973–80, and (3) additional limited predation on alewives would be compensated by a reduction in natural mortality caused by physiological stress and disease.

Long-term heart disease and stroke mortality among former American prisoners of war of World War II and the Korean Conflict: results of a 50-year follow-up.

PubMed

Page, W F; Brass, L M

2001-09-01

For the first 30 years after repatriation, former American prisoners of war (POWs) of World War II and the Korean Conflict had lower death rates for heart disease and stroke than non-POW veteran controls and the U.S. population, but subsequent morbidity data suggested that this survival advantage may have disappeared. We used U.S. federal records to obtain death data through 1996 and used proportional hazards analysis to compare the mortality experience of POWs and controls. POWs aged 75 years and older showed a significantly higher risk of heart disease deaths than controls (hazard ratio = 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.56), and their stroke mortality was also increased, although not significantly (hazard ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.91). These results suggest that circulatory disease sequelae of serious, acute malnutrition and the stresses associated with imprisonment may not appear until after many decades.

Cardiac Surgery in Jehovah's Witness Patients: Experience of a Brazilian Tertiary Hospital.

PubMed

Valle, Felipe Homem; Pivatto, Fernando; Gomes, Bruna Sessim; Freitas, Tanara Martins de; Giaretta, Vanessa; Gus, Miguel

2017-01-01

The outcomes of Jehovah's Witness (JW) patients submitted to open heart surgery may vary across countries and communities. The aim of this study was to describe the morbidity and mortality of JW patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a tertiary hospital center in Southern Brazil. A case-control study was conducted including all JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2016. Three consecutive surgical non-JW controls were matched to each selected JW patient. The preoperative risk of death was estimated through the mean EuroSCORE II. We studied 16 JW patients with a mean age of 60.6±12.1 years. The non-JW group included 48 patients with a mean age of 63.3±11.1 years (P=0.416). Isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery was the most frequent surgery performed in both groups. Median EuroSCORE II was 1.29 (IQR: 0.66-3.08) and 1.43 (IQR: 0.72-2.63), respectively (P=0.988). The mortality tended to be higher in JW patients (18.8% vs. 4.2%, P=0.095), and there was a higher difference between the predicted and observed mortality in JW patients compared with controls (4.1 and 18.8% vs. 2.1 and 4.2%). More JW patients needed hemodialysis in the postoperative period (20.0 vs. 2.1%, P=0.039). We showed a high rate of in-hospital mortality in JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery. The EuroSCORE II may underestimate the surgical risk in these patients.

Cardiac Surgery in Jehovah's Witness Patients: Experience of a Brazilian Tertiary Hospital

PubMed Central

Valle, Felipe Homem; Pivatto Júnior, Fernando; Gomes, Bruna Sessim; de Freitas, Tanara Martins; Giaretta, Vanessa; Gus, Miguel

2017-01-01

Introduction The outcomes of Jehovah's Witness (JW) patients submitted to open heart surgery may vary across countries and communities. The aim of this study was to describe the morbidity and mortality of JW patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a tertiary hospital center in Southern Brazil. Methods A case-control study was conducted including all JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2016. Three consecutive surgical non-JW controls were matched to each selected JW patient. The preoperative risk of death was estimated through the mean EuroSCORE II. Results We studied 16 JW patients with a mean age of 60.6±12.1 years. The non-JW group included 48 patients with a mean age of 63.3±11.1 years (P=0.416). Isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery was the most frequent surgery performed in both groups. Median EuroSCORE II was 1.29 (IQR: 0.66-3.08) and 1.43 (IQR: 0.72-2.63), respectively (P=0.988). The mortality tended to be higher in JW patients (18.8% vs. 4.2%, P=0.095), and there was a higher difference between the predicted and observed mortality in JW patients compared with controls (4.1 and 18.8% vs. 2.1 and 4.2%). More JW patients needed hemodialysis in the postoperative period (20.0 vs. 2.1%, P=0.039). Conclusion We showed a high rate of in-hospital mortality in JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery. The EuroSCORE II may underestimate the surgical risk in these patients. PMID:29211216

Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

2008-08-01

Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Levesque, Eric; Hoti, Emir; Azoulay, Daniel; Ichaï, Philippe; Habouchi, Houssam; Castaing, Denis; Samuel, Didier; Saliba, Faouzi

2012-01-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have a poor prognosis. Identifying patients in whom ICU care will be useful can be challenging. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of prognostic scores with respect to mortality and to identify mortality risk factors. Three hundred and seventy-seven cirrhotic patients admitted to a Liver ICU between May 2005 and March 2009 were enrolled in this study. Their average age was 55.5±11.4 years. The etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (68%), virus hepatitis (18%), or mixed (5.5%). The main causes of hospitalization were gastrointestinal hemorrhage (43%), sepsis (19%), and hepatic encephalopathy (12%). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 34.7% and 43.0%, respectively. Infection was the major cause of death (81.6%). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SOFA (0.92) and SAPS II (0.89) scores calculated within 24h of admission predicted ICU mortality better than the Child-Pugh score (0.79) or MELD scores with (0.79-0.82) or without the incorporation of serum sodium levels (0.82). Statistical analysis showed that the prognostic severity scores, organ replacement therapy, and infection were accurate predictors of mortality. On multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor therapy, bilirubin level at admission, and infection were independently associated with ICU mortality. For cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU, SAPS II, and SOFA scores predicted ICU mortality better than liver-specific scores. Mechanical ventilation or vasopressor therapy, bilirubin levels at admission and infection in patients with advanced cirrhosis were associated with a poor outcome. Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diclofenac-induced biochemical and histopathological changes in white leghorn birds (Gallus domesticus).

PubMed

Jain, Teenu; Koley, K M; Vadlamudi, V P; Ghosh, R C; Roy, S; Tiwari, Sandhya; Sahu, Upasana

2009-10-01

To evaluate diclofenac-induced biochemical and histopathological changes in White Leghorn birds. Six-week-old birds were equally divided into three groups of six birds each. Group I served as control and received vehicle orally. The birds of Group II and III were orally administered with a single low (2 mg/kg) and high dose (20 mg/kg) of diclofenac sodium, respectively, and were observed for 7 days. The acute toxicity was assessed by observing the clinical signs and symptoms, mortality, alterations in blood biochemistry, and necropsy findings. The birds of Group II showed only mild symptoms of diarrhea. In Group III, 50% of birds died in between 24 and 36 h post-treatment showing the symptoms of segregatory behavior, lethargy, terminal anorexia, and severe bloody diarrhea. The birds of Group II and the surviving birds of Group III showed a significantly (P<0.05) increased plasma uric acid, creatinine and plasma glutamic pyruvic transaminase (PGPT), and decreased total protein and albumin at 12 and 24 h post-treatment which returned to the normal levels at 36 h post-treatment. The dead birds of the high-dose group also showed similar pattern of biochemical changes at 12 and 24 h post-treatment and revealed extensive visceral gout with characteristic histopathological lesions in liver, kidney, heart, spleen, and intestine on post-mortem. The results indicate that diclofenac sodium has hepatotoxic, nephrotoxic, and visceral gout inducing potentials in White Leghorn birds, especially at higher dose.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Mortality and Inequalities in Bangladesh: Differential Progress and Sub-national Developments.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-09-01

A rapid reduction in under-five mortality has put Bangladesh on-track to reach Millennium Development Goal 4. Little research, however, has been conducted into neonatal reductions and sub-national rates in the country, with considerable disparities potentially masked by national reductions. The aim of this paper is to estimate national and sub-national rates of neonatal mortality to compute relative and absolute inequalities between sub-national groups and draw comparisons with rates of under-five mortality. Mortality rates for under-five children and neonates were estimated directly for 1980-1981 to 2010-2011 using data from six waves of the Demographic and Health Survey. Rates were stratified by levels of rural/urban location, household wealth and maternal education. Absolute and relative inequalities within these groups were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. National mortality was shown to have decreased dramatically although at differential rates for under-fives and neonates. Across all equity markers, a general pattern of declining absolute but constant relative inequalities was found. For mortality rates stratified by education and wealth mixed evidence suggests that relative inequalities may have also fallen. Although disparities remain, Bangladesh has achieved a rare combination of substantive reductions in mortality levels without increases in relative inequalities. A coalescence of substantial increases in coverage and equitable distribution of key child and neonatal interventions with widespread health sectoral and policy changes over the last 30 years may in part explain this exceptional pattern.

The injury mortality burden in Guinea

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The injury mortality burden of Guinea has been rarely addressed. The paper aimed to report patterns of injury mortality burden in Guinea. Methods We retrieved the mortality data from the Guinean Annual Health Statistics Report 2007. The information about underlying cause of deaths was collected based on Guinean hospital discharge data, Hospital Mortuary and City Council Mortuary data. The causes of death are coded in the 9th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Multivariate Poisson regression was used to test the impacts of sex and age on mortality rates. The statistical analyses were performed using Statatm 10.0. Results In 2007, 7066 persons were reported dying of injuries in Guinea (mortality: 72.8 per 100,000 population). Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide and drowning were the five leading causes of fatal injuries for the whole population, accounting for 37%, 22%, 12%, 10% and 6% of total deaths, respectively. In general, age-specific injury causes displayed similar patterns of the whole population except that poisoning replaced falls as a leading cause among children under five years old. Males were at 30-50% more risk of dying from six commonest causes than females and old age groups had higher injury mortality rates than younger age groups. Conclusion Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide, and drowning accounted for the majority of total injury mortality burden in Guinea. Males and old adults were high-risk population of fatal injuries and should be targeted by injury prevention. Lots of work is needed to improve weak capacities for injury control in order to reduce the injury mortality burden. PMID:22937768

Lung cancer mortality trends in 36 European countries: secular trends and birth cohort patterns by sex and region 1970-2007.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie Ian; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2010-03-15

Smoking is a major contributor to all-cause mortality in Europe and accounts for one-fifth of the cancer-related deaths. Monitoring the tobacco epidemic via an analysis of lung cancer trends is essential in helping countries arrest the effects of tobacco epidemic in the region. The study aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the temporal patterns of lung cancer mortality in Europe, emphasizing country- and sex-specific differences. National lung cancer mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality databank by age, sex, year of death (1970-2007) for 36 countries in Europe. Trends in lung cancer mortality in men have tended to decrease in many European countries during the last two decades, particularly in North and Western Europe. Among women, mortality rates are still increasing in many countries, although in a few populations, rates are beginning to stabilize, notably in the high-risk countries within Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic), and in Northern Europe (Denmark, Iceland and the United Kingdom). Men and women are clearly in very different phases of the smoking epidemic, and, as reflected in the mortality rates by birth cohort, the stage varies widely by country within each European region. That lung cancer mortality trends in men are on a downwards path in most European countries while female rates continue to rise, points to an urgent need for national and European prevention strategies that target tobacco cessation and prevention among European women.

Exploring why Costa Rica outperforms the United States in life expectancy: A tale of two inequality gradients.

PubMed

Rosero-Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H

2016-02-02

Mortality in the United States is 18% higher than in Costa Rica among adult men and 10% higher among middle-aged women, despite the several times higher income and health expenditures of the United States. This comparison simultaneously shows the potential for substantially lowering mortality in other middle-income countries and highlights the United States' poor health performance. The United States' underperformance is strongly linked to its much steeper socioeconomic (SES) gradients in health. Although the highest SES quartile in the United States has better mortality than the highest quartile in Costa Rica, US mortality in its lowest quartile is markedly worse than in Costa Rica's lowest quartile, providing powerful evidence that the US health inequality patterns are not inevitable. High SES-mortality gradients in the United States are apparent in all broad cause-of-death groups, but Costa Rica's overall mortality advantage can be explained largely by two causes of death: lung cancer and heart disease. Lung cancer mortality in the United States is four times higher among men and six times higher among women compared with Costa Rica. Mortality by heart disease is 54% and 12% higher in the United States than in Costa Rica for men and women, respectively. SES gradients for heart disease and diabetes mortality are also much steeper in the United States. These patterns may be partly explained by much steeper SES gradients in the United States compared with Costa Rica for behavioral and medical risk factors such as smoking, obesity, lack of health insurance, and uncontrolled dysglycemia and hypertension.

Exploring why Costa Rica outperforms the United States in life expectancy: A tale of two inequality gradients

PubMed Central

Rosero-Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.

2016-01-01

Mortality in the United States is 18% higher than in Costa Rica among adult men and 10% higher among middle-aged women, despite the several times higher income and health expenditures of the United States. This comparison simultaneously shows the potential for substantially lowering mortality in other middle-income countries and highlights the United States’ poor health performance. The United States’ underperformance is strongly linked to its much steeper socioeconomic (SES) gradients in health. Although the highest SES quartile in the United States has better mortality than the highest quartile in Costa Rica, US mortality in its lowest quartile is markedly worse than in Costa Rica’s lowest quartile, providing powerful evidence that the US health inequality patterns are not inevitable. High SES-mortality gradients in the United States are apparent in all broad cause-of-death groups, but Costa Rica’s overall mortality advantage can be explained largely by two causes of death: lung cancer and heart disease. Lung cancer mortality in the United States is four times higher among men and six times higher among women compared with Costa Rica. Mortality by heart disease is 54% and 12% higher in the United States than in Costa Rica for men and women, respectively. SES gradients for heart disease and diabetes mortality are also much steeper in the United States. These patterns may be partly explained by much steeper SES gradients in the United States compared with Costa Rica for behavioral and medical risk factors such as smoking, obesity, lack of health insurance, and uncontrolled dysglycemia and hypertension. PMID:26729886

Dismounted Blast Injuries in Patients Treated at a Role 3 Military Hospital in Afghanistan: Patterns of Injury and Mortality.

PubMed

Oh, John S; Tubb, Creighton C; Poepping, Thomas P; Ryan, Paul; Clasper, Jonathan C; Katschke, Adrian R; Tuman, Caroline; Murray, Michael J

2016-09-01

The purposes of this study are to define the pattern of injuries sustained by dismounted troops exposed to improvised explosive devices blasts treated at a Role 3 combat support hospital and to assess injury patterns and mortality associated with the mechanism. Our hypothesis was that mortality is associated with pelvic fracture, massive transfusion, high Injury Severity Score (ISS), multiple limb amputations, and transfer from a Role 2 facility. Retrospective study of 457 patients. Analysis performed on trauma registry data and systematic review of radiographs. 99.9% were men with a median age of 23 years and median ISS 10. 141 patients (30.9%) required massive blood transfusion. Limb amputations were frequently observed injuries, 109 of 172 amputees (63.4%) had a double amputation. 34 subjects (7.4%) had pelvic fractures; majority of pelvic fractures (88%) were unstable (Tile B or C). Risk factors associated with the overall mortality rate of 1.8% were an ISS greater than 15 (odds ratio: 11.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 533; p = 0.009), need for massive transfusion (p < 0.0001), and the presence of a pelvic fracture (odds ratio: 7.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 41.3; p = 0.018). Dismounted improvised explosive devices blast injuries result in devastating multiple limb amputations and unstable pelvic fractures, which are associated with mortality after initial trauma resuscitation at a Role 3 hospital. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Interdecadal change in the Eurasia-Pacific anti-phase relation of atmospheric mass and its possible link with PDO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong

2017-02-01

Based on the known climatic shift that occurred in 1976, we divide the present study period into two epochs: epoch-I, for 1958-1976; and epoch-II, for 1977-2002. Using ERA-40 and the 20th century reanalysis data, we investigate the interdecadal change in the Eurasia-Pacific anti-phase relation (EPAR) pattern of atmospheric mass (AM) during boreal winter before and after 1976. It is found that anomalous AM over lands is highly and negatively correlated with anomalous AM over oceans in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. This correlation does not change much from epoch-I to epoch-II. However, the correlation pattern of surface air pressure anomalies with variations of anomalous AM over lands changes remarkably from epoch-I to epoch-II; the EPAR pattern emerges evidently in the later period, whereas it is not significant in epoch-I. The occurrence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II may be attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may modulate the EPAR pattern in two ways. Firstly, the interdecadal component of the PDO as a background may modulate the intensities of the Aleutian low, East Asian trough, and westerly flow, acting as a waveguide during the warm phase (epoch-II) of the PDO. Secondly, the interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific, in association with the PDO, may affect the interannual variations of AM, which facilitates the existence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II only. With the teleconnection pattern having changed before and after 1976, winter climate anomalies, including rainfall and temperature, are found to be different in many regions in the Northern Hemisphere between epoch-I and epoch-II. All the results of the present work are meaningful for a better understanding of climate anomalies during boreal winter.

Revisiting the effect of colonial institutions on comparative economic development

PubMed Central

Regele, Matthew

2017-01-01

European settler mortality has been proposed as an instrument to predict the causal effect of colonial institutions on differences in economic development. We examine the relationship between mortality, temperature, and economic development in former European colonies in Asia, Africa, and the Americas. We find that (i) European settler mortality rates increased with regional temperatures and (ii) economic output decreased with regional temperatures. Conditioning on the continent of settlement and accounting for colonies that were not independent as of 1900 undermines the causal effect of colonial institutions on comparative economic development. Our findings run counter to the institutions hypothesis of economic development, showing instead that geography affected both historic mortality rates and present-day economic output. PMID:28481920

The turn of the gradient? Educational differences in breast cancer mortality in 18 European populations during the 2000s.

PubMed

Gadeyne, S; Menvielle, G; Kulhanova, I; Bopp, M; Deboosere, P; Eikemo, T A; Hoffmann, R; Kovács, K; Leinsalu, M; Martikainen, P; Regidor, E; Rychtarikova, J; Spadea, T; Strand, B H; Trewin, C; Wojtyniak, B; Mackenbach, J P

2017-07-01

This study aims to investigate the association between educational level and breast cancer mortality in Europe in the 2000s. Unlike most other causes of death, breast cancer mortality tends to be positively related to education, with higher educated women showing higher mortality rates. Research has however shown that the association is changing from being positive over non-existent to negative in some countries. To investigate these patterns, data from national mortality registers and censuses were collected and harmonized for 18 European populations. The study population included all women aged 30-74. Age-standardized mortality rates, mortality rate ratios, and slope and relative indexes of inequality were computed by education. The population was stratified according to age (women aged 30-49 and women aged 50-74). The relation between educational level and breast cancer mortality was predominantly negative in women aged 30-49, mortality rates being lower among highly educated women and higher among low educated women, although few outcomes were statistically significant. Among women aged 50-74, the association was mostly positive and statistically significant in some populations. A comparison with earlier research in the 1990s revealed a changing pattern of breast cancer mortality. Positive educational differences that used to be significant in the 1990s were no longer significant in the 2000s, indicating that inequalities have decreased or disappeared. This evolution is in line with the "fundamental causes" theory which stipulates that whenever medical insights and treatment become available to combat a disease, a negative association with socio-economic position will arise, independently of the underlying risk factors. © 2017 UICC.

Drought characteristics' role in widespread aspen forest mortality across Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Anderegg, Leander D L; Anderegg, William R L; Abatzoglou, John; Hausladen, Alexandra M; Berry, Joseph A

2013-05-01

Globally documented widespread drought-induced forest mortality has important ramifications for plant community structure, ecosystem function, and the ecosystem services provided by forests. Yet the characteristics of drought seasonality, severity, and duration that trigger mortality events have received little attention despite evidence of changing precipitation regimes, shifting snow melt timing, and increasing temperature stress. This study draws upon stand level ecohydrology and statewide climate and spatial analysis to examine the drought characteristics implicated in the recent widespread mortality of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). We used isotopic observations of aspen xylem sap to determine water source use during natural and experimental drought in a region that experienced high tree mortality. We then drew upon multiple sources of climate data to characterize the drought that triggered aspen mortality. Finally, regression analysis was used to examine the drought characteristics most associated with the spatial patterns of aspen mortality across Colorado. Isotopic analysis indicated that aspens generally utilize shallow soil moisture with little plasticity during drought stress. Climate analysis showed that the mortality-inciting drought was unprecedented in the observational record, especially in 2002 growing season temperature and evaporative deficit, resulting in record low shallow soil moisture reserves. High 2002 summer temperature and low shallow soil moisture were most associated with the spatial patterns of aspen mortality. These results suggest that the 2002 drought subjected Colorado aspens to the most extreme growing season water stress of the past century by creating high atmospheric moisture demand and depleting the shallow soil moisture upon which aspens rely. Our findings highlight the important role of drought characteristics in mediating widespread aspen forest mortality, link this aspen die-off to regional climate change trends, and provide insight into future climate vulnerability of these forests. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Long-Term Survival With Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator in Different Symptomatic Functional Classes of Heart Failure.

PubMed

Biton, Yitschak; Rosero, Spencer; Moss, Arthur; Zareba, Wojciech; Kutyifa, Valentina; Baman, Jayson; Barsheshet, Alon; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Goldenberg, Ilan

2018-03-01

The ACC/AHA/HRS (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines and the Heart Rhythm Society) guidelines recommend implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy primary prevention in all patients with severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤30%) regardless of New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, whereas recent European guidelines limit the indication to those with symptomatic heart failure (NYHA ≥ II). We therefore aimed to evaluate the long-term survival benefit of primary ICD therapy among postmyocardial infarction patients with and without heart failure (HF) symptoms who were enrolled in MADIT-II (Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial II). We classified 1,164 MADIT-II patient groups according to the baseline NYHA class (NYHA I [n = 442], NYHA II [n = 425], and NYHA III [n = 297]); patients with NYHA IV were excluded. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was performed to compare the mortality reduction with ICD versus non-ICD therapy during 8 years of follow-up between the 3 NYHA groups. The median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 7.6 (3.5 to 9) years. At 8 years of follow-up, the cumulative probability of mortality in the non-ICD treatment arm was 57% for NYHA I, 57% for NYHA II, and 76% for NYHA III (p <0.001). Multivariate models demonstrated similar long-term mortality risk reduction with ICD compared with the non-ICD treatment arm regardless of HF symptoms: NYHA I (HR = 0.63, 0.46 to 0.85, p = 0.003), NYHA II (HR = 0.68, 0.50 to 0.93, p = 0.017), and NYHA III (HR = 0.68, 0.50 to 0.94, p = 0.018); p for NYHA class by treatment arm interaction >0.10. In conclusion, primary ICD therapy provides consistent long-term survival benefit among patients with previous myocardial infarction and severe left ventricular dysfunction, regardless of HF symptoms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The pattern and predictors of mortality of HIV/AIDS patients with neurologic manifestation in Ethiopia: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among the adult population in Ethiopia was estimated to be 2.2% in 2008, the studies on the pattern of neurological manifestations are rare. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the pattern and predictors of mortality of HIV/AIDS patients with neurologic manifestations. Methods Medical records of 347 patients (age ≥13 years) admitted to Tikur Anbesa Hospital from September 2002 to August 2009 were reviewed and demographic and clinical data were collected. Results Data from 347 patients were analysed. The mean age was 34.6 years. The diagnosis of HIV was made before current admission in 33.7% and 15.6% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Causes of neurological manifestation were: cerebral toxoplasmosis (36.6%), tuberculous meningitis (22.5%), cryptococcal meningitis (22.2%) and bacterial meningitis (6.9%). HIV-encephalopathy, primary central nervous system (CNS) lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy were rare in our patients. CD4 count was done in 64.6% and 89.7% had count below 200/mm3[mean = 95.8, median = 57] and 95.7% were stage IV. Neuroimaging was done in 38% and 56.8% had mass lesion. The overall mortality was 45% and the case-fatality rates were: tuberculous meningitis (53.8%), cryptococcal meningitis (48.1%), cerebral toxoplasmosiss (44.1%) and bacterial meningitis (33.3%). Change in sensorium and seizure were predictors of mortality. Conclusions CNS opportunistic infections were the major causes of neurological manifestations of HIV/AIDS and were associated with high mortality and morbidity. Almost all patients had advanced HIV disease at presentation. Early diagnosis of HIV, prophylaxis and treatment of opportunistic infections, timely ART, and improving laboratory services are recommended. Mortality was related to change in sensorium and seizure. PMID:22490062

Socioeconomic Status (SES) and Childhood Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Mortality

PubMed Central

Knoble, Naomi B.; Alderfer, Melissa A.; Hossain, Md Jobayer

2016-01-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3,651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0–19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02–1.12) and 1.05(1.00–1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1: (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3: (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6: (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI) = 1.19(1.0–1.4) and 1.23 (1.1–1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. PMID:27543948

Mortality patterns and trends among 49,705 U.S.-based women in a petroleum company: update 1979-2000.

PubMed

Huebner, Wendy W; Wojcik, Nancy C; Jorgensen, Gail; Marcella, Susan P; Nicolich, Mark J

2010-01-01

To examine mortality patterns and trends in a cohort of women employed in U.S. operating segments of a petroleum company. Based on human resources databases, we defined a cohort of 49,705 U.S.-based women with at least one day of company employment during 1979 to 2000. These data sources provided demographic and most work history information. Standardized mortality ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 95 causes of death for the total cohort and with separate analyses by job type and operating segment when numbers allowed. Cohort women have a 25% lower overall death rate than the general U.S. female population comparison. This lower rate is expected in light of the "healthy worker effect" that influences employee studies. Circulatory diseases have a deficit of 40%, and external causes of death and cancer have deficits of 13% and 9%, respectively. For analyses by job type, office/clerical workers have an elevation in ovarian cancer (standardized mortality ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 1.87), based on 46 deaths, with no work-related patterns. White-collar groups have generally large overall deficits for noncancer causes of death. In contrast, and based on smaller numbers, operators and laborers have elevations of motor vehicle accidents and other external causes of death, and laborers also have elevations of cerebrovascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. These variations by job type are probably associated with differences in lifestyle factors. This large mortality surveillance study of women in the petroleum industry provides an opportunity for meaningful analysis of many causes of death. The study found an overall favorable mortality profile and, for a small number of elevations, helped identify possible subgroups for health and safety prevention programs and interventions.

Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

2016-11-01

Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The mortality rates and the space-time patterns of John Snow's cholera epidemic map.

PubMed

Shiode, Narushige; Shiode, Shino; Rod-Thatcher, Elodie; Rana, Sanjay; Vinten-Johansen, Peter

2015-06-17

Snow's work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow's study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims' records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow's original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims' locations. The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow's theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow's map.

The Divergent Cardiovascular Effects of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin II Type 1 Receptor Blockers in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Strauss, Martin H; Hall, Alistair S

2018-04-01

The renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) plays a central role in the pathophysiology of hypertension and vascular disease. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi's) suppress angiotensin II (ANG II) concentrations, whereas angiotensin II type 1 (AT 1 ) receptor blockers (ARBs) block the binding of ANG II to AT 1 receptors. ACEi's and ARBs are both effective antihypertensive agents and produce similar risk reductions for stroke, a blood pressure-dependent phenomenon. ACEi's also reduce the risk for myocardial infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality in high-risk hypertensive patients as well as in people with diabetes, vascular disease and congestive heart failure. ARBs, in contrast, do not reduce the risk for MI or death in randomized clinical trials when assessed vs. placebo. Systematic reviews of ARBs that include meta-analyses or metaregression analyses confirm that ARBs lack the cardiovascular-protective effects of ACEi's. Practice guidelines, especially those for high-risk patients, such as those with diabetes mellitus, should reflect the evidence that ACEi's and ARBs have divergent cardiovascular effects: ACEi's reduce mortality, whereas ARBs do not. ACEi's should remain the preferred RAAS inhibitor for patients at high risk. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changing the treatment of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: clinical use of sacubitril-valsartan combination

PubMed Central

Kaplinsky, Edgardo

2016-01-01

Despite significant therapeutic advances, patients with chronic heart failure (HF) remain at high risk of morbidity and mortality. Sacubitril valsartan (previously known as LCZ696) is a new oral agent approved for the treatment of symptomatic chronic heart failure in adults with reduced ejection fraction. It is described as the first in class angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) since it incorporates the neprilysin inhibitor, sacubitril and the angiotensin II receptor antagonist, valsartan. Neprilysin is an endopeptidase that breaks down several vasoactive peptides including natriuretic peptides (NPs), bradykinin, endothelin and angiotensin II (Ang-II). Therefore, a natural consequence of its inhibition is an increase of plasmatic levels of both, NPs and Ang-II (with opposite biological actions). So, a combined inhibition of these both systems (Sacubitril / valsartan) may enhance the benefits of NPs effects in HF (natriuresis, diuresis, etc) while Ang-II receptor is inhibited (reducing vasoconstriction and aldosterone release). In a large clinical trial (PARADIGM-HF with 8442 patients), this new agent was found to significantly reduce cardiovascular and all cause mortality as well as hospitalizations due to HF (compared to enalapril). This manuscript reviews clinical evidence for sacubitril valsartan, dosing and cautions, future directions and its considered place in the therapy of HF with reduced ejection fraction. PMID:28133468

High-resolution computed tomography findings of pulmonary tuberculosis in lung transplant recipients.

PubMed

Giacomelli, Irai Luis; Schuhmacher Neto, Roberto; Nin, Carlos Schuller; Cassano, Priscilla de Souza; Pereira, Marisa; Moreira, José da Silva; Nascimento, Douglas Zaione; Hochhegger, Bruno

2017-01-01

Respiratory infections constitute a major cause of morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant recipients. The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is high among such patients. On imaging, tuberculosis has various presentations. Greater understanding of those presentations could reduce the impact of the disease by facilitating early diagnosis. Therefore, we attempted to describe the HRCT patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis in lung transplant recipients. From two hospitals in southern Brazil, we collected the following data on lung transplant recipients who developed pulmonary tuberculosis: gender; age; symptoms; the lung disease that led to transplantation; HRCT pattern; distribution of findings; time from transplantation to pulmonary tuberculosis; and mortality rate. The HRCT findings were classified as miliary nodules; cavitation and centrilobular nodules with a tree-in-bud pattern; ground-glass attenuation with consolidation; mediastinal lymph node enlargement; or pleural effusion. We evaluated 402 lung transplant recipients, 19 of whom developed pulmonary tuberculosis after transplantation. Among those 19 patients, the most common HRCT patterns were ground-glass attenuation with consolidation (in 42%); cavitation and centrilobular nodules with a tree-in-bud pattern (in 31.5%); and mediastinal lymph node enlargement (in 15.7%). Among the patients with cavitation and centrilobular nodules with a tree-in-bud pattern, the distribution was within the upper lobes in 66.6%. No pleural effusion was observed. Despite treatment, one-year mortality was 47.3%. The predominant HRCT pattern was ground-glass attenuation with consolidation, followed by cavitation and centrilobular nodules with a tree-in-bud pattern. These findings are similar to those reported for immunocompetent patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and considerably different from those reported for AIDS patients with the same disease.

Does the Mediterranean diet predict longevity in the elderly? A Swedish perspective.

PubMed

Tognon, Gianluca; Rothenberg, Elisabet; Eiben, Gabriele; Sundh, Valter; Winkvist, Anna; Lissner, Lauren

2011-09-01

Dietary pattern analysis represents a useful improvement in the investigation of diet and health relationships. Particularly, the Mediterranean diet pattern has been associated with reduced mortality risk in several studies involving both younger and elderly population groups. In this research, relationships between dietary macronutrient composition, as well as the Mediterranean diet, and total mortality were assessed in 1,037 seventy-year-old subjects (540 females) information. Diet macronutrient composition was not associated with mortality, while a refined version of the modified Mediterranean diet index showed a significant inverse association (HR=0.93, 95% CI: 0.89; 0.98). As expected, inactive subjects, smokers and those with a higher waist circumference had a higher mortality, while a reduced risk characterized married and more educated people. Sensitivity analyses (which confirmed our results) consisted of: exclusion of one food group at a time in the Mediterranean diet index, exclusion of early deaths, censoring at fixed follow-up time, adjusting for activities of daily living and main cardiovascular risk factors including weight/waist circumference changes at follow up. In conclusion, we can reasonably state that a higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet pattern, especially by consuming wholegrain cereals, foods rich in polyunsaturated fatty acids, and a limited amount of alcohol, predicts increased longevity in the elderly.

De-Escalation of Antibiotics Does Not Increase Mortality in Critically Ill Surgical Patients.

PubMed

Turza, Kristin C; Politano, Amani D; Rosenberger, Laura H; Riccio, Lin M; McLeod, Matthew; Sawyer, Robert G

2016-02-01

Overuse of broad-spectrum antibiotics results in microbial resistance and financially is a healthcare burden. Antibiotic de-escalation refers to starting treatment of a presumed infection with broad-spectrum antibiotics and narrowing drug spectrum based on culture sensitivities. A study was designed to evaluate antibiotic de-escalation at a tertiary care center. We hypothesized that antibiotic de-escalation would not be associated with increased patient mortality rates or worsening of the primary infection. All infections treated in a single, tertiary care Surgical ICU between August 2009 and December 2011 were reviewed. Antibiotic treatment was classified by skilled reviewers as being either de-escalated or not. Outcomes were evaluated. Univariate statistics were performed (Fisher exact test, Chi-square for categorical data; student t-test for continuous variables). Multivariable logistic regression was completed. A total of 2,658 infections were identified. De-escalation was identified for 995 infections and non-deescalation occurred in 1,663. Patients were similar in age (de-escalated 55 ± 16 y vs. 56 ± 16, p = 0.1) and gender (de-escalated 60% males vs. 58%, p = 0.4). There were substantially greater APACHE II scores in non-deescalated patients (15 ± 8 vs. 14 ± 8, p = 0.03). A greater mortality rate among patients with infections treated without de-escalation was observed compared with those treated with de-escalation (9% vs. 6%, p = 0.002). Total antibiotic duration was substantially longer in the de-escalated group (15 ± 13 d vs. 13 ± 13, p = 0.0001). Multivariable analysis found that de-escalation decreased mortality rates (OR = 0.69; 95%CI, 0.49-0.97; p = 0.04) and high APACHE II score independently increased mortality rates (OR = 1.2; 95%CI, 1.1-1.2; p = 0.0001). Other parameters included were age and infection site. Antibiotic de-escalation was not associated with increased mortality rates, but the duration of antibiotic use was longer in this group. Greater mortality rates were observed in the non-deescalated group, but this likely owes at least in part to their relatively greater severity of disease classification (APACHE II). Further investigation will help evaluate whether antibiotic de-escalation will improve the quality of patient care.

Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

2012-01-01

Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

The relationship between mortality and time since divorce, widowhood or remarriage in Norway.

PubMed

Berntsen, Kjersti Norgård; Kravdal, Oystein

2012-12-01

The chance of dying within any given year probably depends not only on marital status in that year but also on earlier partnership history. There is still not much knowledge about such effects, however. Our intention is to see how mortality is associated with time since divorce, bereavement and remarriage and time between marital disruption and remarriage. We use register data that include the entire Norwegian population aged 40-89 from 1970 to 2008 (70,701,767 person-years of exposure and 1,484,281 deaths). The excess mortality of divorced men compared to their married counterparts increases with time since divorce, while there is no such trend among divorced women. The pattern is opposite for the widowed, among whom there are indications of a more sharply positive association with time since bereavement for women than for men, though the association is rather weak for both sexes. The remarried have higher mortality than the first-time married, with one surprising exception: men who have remarried after a period of less than 10 years as divorced or widowed have the same mortality as the married. There is no clear association between mortality and time since remarriage. We discuss possible reasons for these patterns. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional variations in mortality rates in England and Wales: an analysis using multi-level modelling.

PubMed

Langford, I H; Bentham, G

1996-03-01

Mortality rates in England and Wales display a persistent regional pattern indicating generally poorer health in the North and West. Some of this is simply a reflection of regional differences in the extent of social deprivation which is known to exert a profound influence on health. Part of the pattern may also be the result of regional differences in urbanization which also affect mortality rates. However, there may be important regional differences over and above these compositional effects. This study attempts to establish the magnitude of such independent regional differences in mortality rates by using the techniques of multi-level modelling. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) for males and females under 65 for 1989-91 in local authority districts are grouped into categories using the ACORN classification scheme. The Townsend Index is included as a measure of social deprivation. Using a cross-classified multi-level model, it is shown that region accounts for approximately four times more variation in SMRs than is explained by the ACORN classification. Analysis of diagnostic residuals show a clear North-South divide in excess mortality when both regional and socio-economic classification of districts are modelled simultaneously, a possibility allowed for by the use of a multi-level model.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of acute respiratory failure in the patients 90 years old and over

PubMed Central

Kung, Shu-Chen; Wang, Ching-Min; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chao, Chien-Ming

2018-01-01

This retrospective cohort study investigated the outcomes and prognostic factors in nonagenarians (patients 90 years old or older) with acute respiratory failure. Between 2006 and 2016, all nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) were enrolled. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality and ventilator dependency were measured. A total of 173 nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 56 patients died during the hospital stay and the rate of in-hospital mortality was 32.4%. Patients with higher APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.91; 95 % CI, 1.55-22.45; p = 0.009, APACHE II scores ≥ 25 vs APACHE II scores < 15), use of vasoactive agent (adjust OR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.12-6.37; p = 0.03) and more organ dysfunction (adjusted OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 3.38-36.36, p < 0.001; ≥ 3 organ dysfunction vs ≤ 1 organ dysfunction) were more likely to die. Among the 117 survivors, 25 (21.4%) patients became dependent on MV. Female gender (adjusted OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.16-10.76, p = 0.027) and poor consciousness level (adjusted OR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.41-17.58, p = 0.013) were associated with MV dependency. In conclusion, the mortality rate of nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure was high, especially for those with higher APACHE II scores or more organ dysfunction. PMID:29467961

Risk factors, sequential organ failure assessment and model for end-stage liver disease scores for predicting short term mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit.

PubMed

Cholongitas, E; Senzolo, M; Patch, D; Kwong, K; Nikolopoulou, V; Leandro, G; Shaw, S; Burroughs, A K

2006-04-01

Prognostic scores in an intensive care unit (ICU) evaluate outcomes, but derive from cohorts containing few cirrhotic patients. To evaluate 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to an ICU, and to compare general and liver-specific prognostic scores. A total of 312 consecutive cirrhotic patients (65% alcoholic; mean age 49.6 years). Multivariable logistic regression to evaluate admission factors associated with survival. Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were compared by receiver operating characteristic curves. Major indication for admission was respiratory failure (35.6%). Median (range) Child-Pugh, APACHE II, MELD and SOFA scores were 11 (5-15), 18 (0-44), 24 (6-40) and 11 (0-21), respectively; 65% (n = 203) died. Survival improved over time (P = 0.005). Multivariate model factors: more organs failing (FOS) (<3 = 49.5%, > or =3 = 90%), higher FiO(2), lactate, urea and bilirubin; resulting in good discrimination [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.83], similar to SOFA and MELD (AUC = 0.83 and 0.81, respectively) and superior to APACHE II and Child-Pugh (AUC = 0.78 and 0.72, respectively). Cirrhotics admitted to ICU with > or =3 failing organ systems have 90% mortality. The Royal Free model discriminated well and contained key variables of organ function. SOFA and MELD were better predictors than APACHE II or Child-Pugh scores.

Epidemiology and Changes in Mortality of Sepsis After the Implementation of Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines.

PubMed

Herrán-Monge, Rubén; Muriel-Bombín, Arturo; García-García, Marta M; Merino-García, Pedro A; Martínez-Barrios, Miguel; Andaluz, David; Ballesteros, Juan Carlos; Domínguez-Berrot, Ana María; Moradillo-Gonzalez, Susana; Macías, Santiago; Álvarez-Martínez, Braulio; Fernández-Calavia, M José; Tarancón, Concepción; Villar, Jesús; Blanco, Jesús

2017-01-01

To determine the epidemiology and outcome of severe sepsis and septic shock after 9 years of the implementation of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) and to build a mortality prediction model. This is a prospective, multicenter, observational study performed during a 5-month period in 2011 in a network of 11 intensive care units (ICUs). We compared our findings with those obtained in the same ICUs in a study conducted in 2002. The current cohort included 262 episodes of severe sepsis and/or septic shock, and the 2002 cohort included 324. The prevalence was 14% (95% confidence interval: 12.5-15.7) with no differences to 2002. The population-based incidence was 31 cases/100 000 inhabitants/year. Patients in 2011 had a significantly lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II; 21.9 ± 6.6 vs 25.5 ± 7.07), Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (5.6 ± 3.2 vs 6.3 ± 3.6), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores on day 1 (8 ± 3.5 vs 9.6 ± 3.7; P < .01). The main source of infection was intraabdominal (32.5%) although microbiologic isolation was possible in 56.7% of cases. The 2011 cohort had a marked reduction in 48-hour (7% vs 14.8%), ICU (27.2% vs 48.2%), and in-hospital (36.7% vs 54.3%) mortalities. Most relevant factors associated with death were APACHE II score, age, previous immunosuppression and liver insufficiency, alcoholism, nosocomial infection, and Delta SOFA score. Although the incidence of sepsis/septic shock remained unchanged during a 10-year period, the implementation of the SSC guidelines resulted in a marked decrease in the overall mortality. The lower severity of patients on ICU admission and the reduced early mortality suggest an improvement in early diagnosis, better initial management, and earlier antibiotic treatment.

[Characteristics and factors associated with mortality in patients receiving mechanical ventilation: first Chilean multicenter study].

PubMed

Tomicic, Vinko; Espinoza, Mauricio; Andresen, Max; Molina, Jorge; Calvo, Mario; Ugarte, Héctor; Godoy, Jorge; Gálvez, Sergio; Maurelia, Juan Carlos; Delgado, Iris; Esteban, Andrés

2008-08-01

The outcome of mechanically ventilated patients can be influenced by factors such as the indication of mechanical ventilation (MV) and ventilator parameters. To describe the characteristics of patients receiving MV in Chilean critical care units. Prospective cohort of consecutive adult patients admitted to 19 intensive care units (ICU) from 9 Chilean cities who received MV for more than 12 hours between September lst, 2003, and September 28th, 2003. Demographic data, severity of illness, reason for the initiation of MV, ventilation modes and settings as well as weaning strategies were registered at the initiation and then, daily throughout the course of MV for up to 28 days. ICU and hospital mortality were recorded. Of 588 patients admitted, 156 (26.5%) received MV (57% males). Mean age and Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (SAPS II) were 54.6+/-18 years and 40.6+/-16.4 points respectively The most common indications for MV were acute respiratory failure (71.1%) and coma (22.4%). Assist-control mode (71.6%) and synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation (SIMV) (14,2%) were the most frequently used. T-tube was the main weaning strategy. Mean duration of MV and length of stay in ICU were 7.8+/-8.7 and 11.1+/- 14 days respectively. Overall ICU mortality was 33.9% (53 patients). The main factors independently associated with increased mortality were (1) SAPS II > or =60 points (Odds Ratio (OR), 10.5; 95% CI, 1.04-106.85) and (2) plateau pressure > or =30 cm H2O at second day (OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.17-12.97). Conditions present at the onset of MV and ventilator management were similar to those reported in the literature. Magnitude of multiorgan dysfunction and high plateau pressures are the most important factors associated with mortality.

The distribution and mortality impact of chronic energy deficiency among adult Nigerian men and women.

PubMed

Rotimi, C; Okosun, I; Johnson, L; Owoaje, E; Lawoyin, T; Asuzu, M; Kaufman, J; Adeyemo, A; Cooper, R

1999-09-01

To determine the prevalence of chronic energy deficiency (CED) and associated mortality risk in a cohort of adult Nigerians followed from 1992 to 1997. The data for this investigation were derived from an international collaborative study on chronic diseases in populations of the African diaspora. Body mass index (BMI) was used to define three grades of CED in 4061 men and women aged 25 years and older: Grade I (mild CED) as BMI 17.5-18.4, Grade II (moderate CED) as BMI 16.0-17.4, and Grade III (severe CED) as BMI < 16.0 and BMI > or = 18.5 was considered normal. The odds of mortality associated with differing grades of CED was estimated with logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of CED (BMI < 18.5) increased from 14.3% in 1992 to 19.6% in 1997, both genders combined. The prevalence of CED was similar for both sexes in 1992 (14%) but increased to 22.4% in men and 17.4% in women by 1997. The prevalence of CED was 8.5%, 7.6 and 3.4 for Grades I, II and III, respectively. Two hundred and seven deaths occurred during the follow-up period. The mortality rate for the 5.5 y of follow-up was 5.1% (207/4061). The odds ratios (95% CIs) for all cause mortality were 1.4 (0.5, 3.8), 2.4 (1.2, 4.9) and 2.5 (1.0, 6.2), respectively, for CED grades I, II and III adjusting for age and sex. Under nutrition is an increasing problem in Nigerian men and women. The economic reforms (structural adjustment program (SAP)) introduced in 1986 in combination with the continued economic woes brought on by political instability, corruption and nepotism have been advanced by several investigators as the main factors in the growing problem of inadequate calorie intake. Intervention strategies both at the government and private sectors are urgently needed to increase food availability.

Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

PubMed

Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

2017-10-01

This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HR<1.00) for openness, and U.S. studies showed a pattern of protective effects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

Long-term mortality benefits of air quality improvement during the twelfth five-year-plan period in 31 provincial capital cities of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Cai, Yuanyuan; Feng, Baixiang; Cao, Ganxiang; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Liu, Sha; Pei, Lei; Fu, Li; Yang, Xinyi; Zhang, Bo; Ma, Wenjun

2018-01-01

The severe air pollution across China in the past several years has made the Chinese government recognize its significant impacts on public health and society, and take enormous efforts to improve the air quality all over the country, especially during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (12th FYP). However, the overall effectiveness of these air pollution control policies remains unclear. In this study, we selected the 31 municipalities and provincial capital cities in mainland China as study settings. We collected the annual average population size, mortality rates (total mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, total cancer, lung cancer and breast cancer) and concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and NO2) in each capital city from 2010 to 2015 from national or local Statistical Yearbooks. The effect sizes of air pollutants on mortality were obtained from previously published meta analyses or cohort studies. We first estimated the annual mortality rates attributed to the changes in air pollutant concentrations for every city in each year. Then, we further estimated the mortality benefits in the scenarios where the air quality had reached the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. In most capital cities, we observed dominant decreases in air pollutant concentrations during the 12th FYP, particularly from 2013 to 2015, which has led to significant mortality benefits for the public. A total of 121,658 deaths (0.441‰) have been prevented due to the decrease of PM2.5concentrations from 2013 to 2015 in all included cities. The morality benefits were larger in capital cities located in the key regions (the three main regions and ten city groups) than the other cities. In addition, more mortality benefits could be obtained in the future if the air quality reaches the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) or WHO guidelines. We concluded that substantial mortality benefits achieved during the 12th FYP may be attributed to the improvements in China's air quality, which indicated the significant effectiveness of air pollution control policies.

Can the pattern of vertebral marrow oedema differentiate intervertebral disc infection from degenerative changes?

PubMed

Shrot, S; Sayah, A; Berkowitz, F

2017-07-01

To evaluate whether various patterns of bone marrow oedema could be used to discriminate between infection and degenerative change. Seventy patients with imaging features suspicious for discitis and available clinical follow-up were blindly reviewed for vertebral marrow oedema on sagittal short-tau inversion recovery (STIR) images according to the following patterns: I, vertebra oedema is adjacent to the intervertebral space and sharply-marginated; II, vertebral oedema is adjacent to the intervertebral space but not sharply marginated from normal marrow or involves the entire vertebral body; and III, vertebral oedema is distant from the endplate with intervening hypointense marrow signal. Of 45 patients with a clinical diagnosis of discitis, pattern II was the most common oedema pattern (64%). Approximately 20% and 9% of discitis patients showed patterns I and III, respectively. In patients with degenerative changes, 44% patients showed pattern I, 32% showed pattern II, and 24% showed pattern III. Pattern II had a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.64, 0.68, and 0.78 for diagnosing spine infection, respectively. Although bone marrow oedema in infective discitis most often extends from the disc space and has indistinct margins, the oedema may also have sharp margins or be remote from the involved intervertebral space. Bone marrow oedema patterns of infective discitis overlap with those of degenerative disease and are not sufficiently reliable to exclude infection in cases with magnetic resonance imaging findings suggestive of discitis. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How does variation in rainfall affect simulated tropical tree mortality, functional diversity and coexistence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, T.; Kueppers, L. M.; Koven, C.; Johnson, D. J.; Faybishenko, B.; McDowell, N. G.; Chambers, J. Q.

2016-12-01

Land surface models that include demographic and plant hydrodynamic processes are promising tools for characterizing how different drought scenarios may affect carbon cycling of tropical forests. The Ecosystem Demography (ED2) model, now formulated with such features, was used to evaluate how different drought scenarios affect mortality patterns, functional diversity and coexistence of four plant functional types (PFTs) of tropical trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The four PFTs simulated were early- versus late-successional groups subdivided into drought-tolerant versus -intolerant groups. The hydrodynamic formulation enables the four PFTs to compete mechanistically along two largely orthogonal resource gradients of water and light. The model simulations produced considerable differences in the aboveground biomass response to contrasting drying scenarios that included longer dry seasons, El Nino related droughts, and drier dry seasons. The emergent mortality dynamics reflect the physiological trade-off between water-use and carbon fixation formulated by the hydrodynamic regulation over stomatal conductance. During dry periods, the model predicts increased mortality rates of pioneer trees compared to generalists and drought-intolerant trees compared to -tolerant trees. The model also predicts that surviving cohorts in the smallest size classes of drought-intolerant trees are occasionally primed for release from competition following acute droughts. Observations at BCI showed increased mortality rates for large trees (i.e. >30 cm dbh) during the 1982 El Nino drought, but not subsequent El Nino related droughts. The causes of the elevated mortality rates are explored with the model. Coexistence of four plant functional types in the model is highly sensitive to the parameterization of stem hydraulic conductivity; but, surprisingly not very sensitive to shifts in rainfall patterns. These results demonstrate (a) that plant hydrodynamics are critical for simulating dynamic mortality patterns between drought-tolerant and -intolerant PFTs in order to increase representation of functional diversity in land surface models, and (b) that more demographic, plant hydraulic and deeper soil moisture observations are required to constrain hydrodynamic parameter selection.

40 years of progress in female cancer death risk: a Bayesian spatio-temporal mapping analysis in Switzerland.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christian; Ess, Silvia; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-10-09

In the past decades, mortality of female gender related cancers declined in Switzerland and other developed countries. Differences in the decrease and in spatial patterns within Switzerland have been reported according to urbanisation and language region, and remain controversial. We aimed to investigate geographical and temporal trends of breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality, assess whether differential trends exist and to provide updated results until 2011. Breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality and population data for Switzerland in the period 1969-2011 was retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical office (FSO). Cases were grouped into <55 year olds, 55-74 year olds and 75+ year olds. The geographical unit of analysis was the municipality. To explore age- specific spatio-temporal patterns we fitted Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models on subgroup-specific death rates indirectly standardized by national references. We used linguistic region and degree of urbanisation as covariates. Female cancer mortality continuously decreased in terms of rates in all age groups and cancer sites except for ovarian cancer in 75+ year olds, especially since 1990 onwards. Contrary to other reports, we found no systematic difference between language regions. Urbanisation as a proxy for access to and quality of medical services, education and health consciousness seemed to have no influence on cancer mortality with the exception of uterine and ovarian cancer in specific age groups. We observed no obvious spatial pattern of mortality common for all cancer sites. Rate reduction in cervical cancer was even stronger than for other cancer sites. Female gender related cancer mortality is continuously decreasing in Switzerland since 1990. Geographical differences are small, present on a regional or canton-overspanning level, and different for each cancer site and age group. No general significant association with cantonal or language region borders could be observed.

Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Russo, Ana; Ortiz, Cristina; Salvador, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo Machado

2017-07-01

A lot of papers have been published about the impact on mortality of Sahara dust intrusions in individual cities. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the impact on a country and scarcer if in addition the analysis takes into account the meteorological conditions that favour these intrusions. The main aim is to examine the effect of Saharan dust intrusions on daily mortality in different Spanish regions and to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with such dust intrusions. For determination of days with Saharan dust intrusions, we used information supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment, it divides Spain into 9 main areas. In each of these regions, a representative province was selected. A time series analysis has been performed to analyse the relationship between daily mortality and PM 10 levels in the period from 01.01.04 to 31.12.09, using Poisson regression and stratifying the analysis by the presence or absence of Saharan dust advections. The proportion of days on which there are Saharan dust intrusions rises to 30% of days. The synoptic pattern is characterised by an anticyclonic ridge extending from northern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Particulate matter (PM) on days with intrusions are associated with daily mortality, something that does not occur on days without intrusions, indicating that Saharan dust may be a risk factor for daily mortality. In other cases, what Saharan dust intrusions do is to change the PM-related mortality behaviour pattern, going from PM 2.5 . A study such as the one conducted here, in which meteorological analysis of synoptic situations which favour Saharan dust intrusions, is combined with the effect on health at a city level, would seem to be crucial when it comes to analysing the differentiated mortality pattern in situations of Saharan dust intrusions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico).

PubMed

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests.

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico)

PubMed Central

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests. PMID:26496189