Science.gov

Sample records for impact assessment models

  1. Beyond citation analysis: a model for assessment of research impact

    PubMed Central

    Dubinsky, Ellen K.; Holmes, Kristi L.

    2010-01-01

    Question: Is there a means of assessing research impact beyond citation analysis? Setting: The case study took place at the Washington University School of Medicine Becker Medical Library. Method: This case study analyzed the research study process to identify indicators beyond citation count that demonstrate research impact. Main Results: The authors discovered a number of indicators that can be documented for assessment of research impact, as well as resources to locate evidence of impact. As a result of the project, the authors developed a model for assessment of research impact, the Becker Medical Library Model for Assessment of Research. Conclusion: Assessment of research impact using traditional citation analysis alone is not a sufficient tool for assessing the impact of research findings, and it is not predictive of subsequent clinical applications resulting in meaningful health outcomes. The Becker Model can be used by both researchers and librarians to document research impact to supplement citation analysis. PMID:20098647

  2. National Built Environment Health Impact Assessment Model ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Behavioral (activity, diet, social interaction) and exposure (air pollution, traffic injury, and noise) related health impacts of land use and transportation investment decisions are becoming better understood and quantified. Research has shown relationships between density, mix, street connectivity, access to parks, shops, transit, presence of sidewalks and bikeways, and healthy food with physical activity, obesity, cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes, and some mental health outcomes. This session demonstrates successful integration of health impact assessment into multiple scenario planning tool platforms. Detailed evidence on chronic disease and related costs associated with contrasting land use and transportation investments are built into a general-purpose module that can be accessed by multiple platforms. Funders, researchers, and end users of the tool will present a detailed description of the key elements of the approach, how it has been applied, and how will evolve. A critical focus will be placed on equity and social justice inherent within the assessment of health disparities that will be featured in the session. Health impacts of community design have significant cost benefit implications. Recent research is now extending relationships between community design features and chronic disease to health care costs. This session will demonstrate the recent application of this evidence on health impacts to the newly adopted Los Angeles Regional Transpo

  3. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  4. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  5. An airport community noise-impact assessment model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deloach, R.

    1980-01-01

    A computer model was developed to assess the noise impact of an airport on the community which it serves. Assessments are made using the Fractional Impact Method by which a single number describes the community aircraft noise environment in terms of exposed population and multiple event noise level. The model is comprised of three elements: a conventional noise footprint model, a site specific population distribution model, and a dose response transfer function. The footprint model provides the noise distribution for a given aircraft operating scenario. This is combined with the site specific population distribution obtained from a national census data base to yield the number of residents exposed to a given level of noise. The dose response relationship relates noise exposure levels to the percentage of individuals highly annoyed by those levels.

  6. Ecohydrological modeling for large-scale environmental impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Abouali, Mohammad; Herman, Matthew R; Esfahanian, Elaheh; Hamaamin, Yaseen A; Zhang, Zhen

    2016-02-01

    Ecohydrological models are frequently used to assess the biological integrity of unsampled streams. These models vary in complexity and scale, and their utility depends on their final application. Tradeoffs are usually made in model scale, where large-scale models are useful for determining broad impacts of human activities on biological conditions, and regional-scale (e.g. watershed or ecoregion) models provide stakeholders greater detail at the individual stream reach level. Given these tradeoffs, the objective of this study was to develop large-scale stream health models with reach level accuracy similar to regional-scale models thereby allowing for impacts assessments and improved decision-making capabilities. To accomplish this, four measures of biological integrity (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT), Family Index of Biotic Integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), and fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)) were modeled based on four thermal classes (cold, cold-transitional, cool, and warm) of streams that broadly dictate the distribution of aquatic biota in Michigan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow and water quality in seven watersheds and the Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate 171 ecologically relevant flow regime variables. Unique variables were selected for each thermal class using a Bayesian variable selection method. The variables were then used in development of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models of EPT, FIBI, HBI, and IBI. ANFIS model accuracy improved when accounting for stream thermal class rather than developing a global model.

  7. Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

    2014-12-01

    During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

  8. Coupled Dynamic Modeling to Assess Human Impact on Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, I. N.; Tsai, Y.; Turnbull, S.; Bomblies, A.; Zia, A.

    2014-12-01

    Humans are intrinsic to the hydrologic system, both as agents of change and as beneficiaries of ecosystem services. This connection has been underappreciated in hydrology. We present a modeling linkage framework of an agent-based land use change model with a physical-based watershed model. The coupled model framework presented constitutes part of an integrated assessment model that is being developed to study human-ecosystem interaction in Missisquoi Bay, spanning Vermont and Québec, which is experiencing high concentrations of nutrients from the Missisquoi River watershed. The integrated assessment approach proposed is comprised of linking two simulation models: the Interactive Land-Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM) and a physically based process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The ILUTABM treats both landscape and landowners as agents and simulates annual land-use patterns resulting from landowners annual land-use decisions and Best Management Practices (BMPs) adaptations to landowners utilities, land productivity and perceived impacts of floods. The Missisquoi River at Swanton watershed RHESSys model (drainage area of 2,200 km2) driven by climate data was first calibrated to daily streamflows and water quality sensor data at the watershed outlet. Simulated land-use patterns were then processed to drive the calibrated RHESSys model to obtain streamflow nutrient loading realizations. Nutrients loading realizations are then examined and routed back to the ILUTAB model to obtain public polices needed to manage the Missisquoi watershed as well as the Lake Champlain in general. We infer that the applicability of this approach can be generalized to other similar watersheds. Index Terms: 0402: Agricultural systems; 1800: Hydrology; 1803: Anthropogenic effects; 1834 Human impacts; 6344: System operation and management; 6334: Regional Planning

  9. Watershed Model Parameterization for Assessing Impacts due to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yactayo, G. A.; Bhatt, G.

    2014-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay (CB) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program drives water quality policy and management in parts of six states — Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia — along with the District of Columbia to achieve water quality standards in the Bay through reductions in nutrient and sediment pollution. The HSPF Watershed Model (WSM) is used as an accounting tool in the development of the TMDL to track progress and guide implementations of best management practices. Published research has shown that precipitation has increased in the US during 20th century by about ten percent, and half of the increase is due to changes in frequency and intensity in the upper tenth percentile of the distribution. Projections from global climate models suggest that these trends are anticipated to continue over the next century. Our analysis of climate data over the last three decades show similar trends in observed precipitation in the CB Watershed. The impact of climate change on the CB TMDL will be examined in a 2017 assessment of progress in the State and Federal partnership of the Chesapeake Bay Program. This is consistent with the CB Executive Order of May 12, 2009 mandates assessment of the impacts of climate change on the CB TMDL. The WSM has a simulation period of more than 3 decades from 1985 to 2011. Over the simulation period precipitation intensity, temperatures, and CO2 levels are increasing. A study conducted by Najjar et al. (2010) that included regional climate projections suggests that pollutant loads in the CB region will increase over the next century. Butcher et al. (2014) demonstrated that a watershed model parameter needs to be adjusted to compensate for the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on plant transpiration in climate projection applications. This raises the question of whether parameters within a watershed model calibrated using historical climate data are sufficient for assessing hydrologic and water

  10. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droogers, P.; van Loon, A.; Immerzeel, W. W.

    2008-04-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

  11. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  12. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  13. Quantifying the CV: Adapting an Impact Assessment Model to Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohémier, K. A.

    2015-04-01

    We present the process and results of applying the Becker Model to the curriculum vitae of a Yale University astronomy professor. As background, in July 2013, the Becker Medical Library at Washington Univ. in St. Louis held a workshop for librarians on the Becker Model, a framework developed by research assessment librarians for quantifying medical researchers' individual and group outputs. Following the workshop, the model was analyzed for content to adapt it to the physical sciences.

  14. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  15. Model-Driven Paediatric Cardiomyopathy Pathways - A Clinical Impact Assessment.

    PubMed

    Stroetmann, Karl A; Thiel, Rainer

    2017-01-01

    Intermediate results from an ongoing health technology assessment exercise of a simulation model of paediatric cardiomyopathy are reported. Comprehensive data on paediatric cardiomyopathy/heart failure, treatment options, incidence and prevalence, prognoses for different outcomes to be expected were collected. Based on this knowledge, a detailed clinical pathway model was developed and validated against the clinical workflow in a tertiary paediatric care hospital. It combines three disease stages and various treatment options with estimates of the probabilities of a child moving from one stage to another. To reflect the complexity of initial decision taking by clinicians, a three-stage Markov model was combined with a decision tree approach - a Markov decision process. A Markov Chain simulation tool was applied to compare estimates of transition probabilities and cost data of present standard of care treatment options for a cohort of children over ten years with expected improvements from using a clinical decision support tool based on the disease model under development. Early results indicate a slight increase of overall costs resulting from the extra cost of using such a tool in spite of some savings to be expected from improved care. However, the intangible benefits in life years saved of severely ill children and the improvement in QoL to be expected for moderately ill ones should more than compensate for this.

  16. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    PubMed

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

  17. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  18. National Built Environment Health Impact Assessment Model: Creation and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    Behavioral (activity, diet, social interaction) and exposure (air pollution, traffic injury, and noise) related health impacts of land use and transportation investment decisions are becoming better understood and quantified. Research has shown relationships between density, mix,...

  19. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  20. Impact assessment of abiotic resources in LCA: quantitative comparison of selected characterization models.

    PubMed

    Rørbech, Jakob T; Vadenbo, Carl; Hellweg, Stefanie; Astrup, Thomas F

    2014-10-07

    Resources have received significant attention in recent years resulting in development of a wide range of resource depletion indicators within life cycle assessment (LCA). Understanding the differences in assessment principles used to derive these indicators and the effects on the impact assessment results is critical for indicator selection and interpretation of the results. Eleven resource depletion methods were evaluated quantitatively with respect to resource coverage, characterization factors (CF), impact contributions from individual resources, and total impact scores. We included 2247 individual market inventory data sets covering a wide range of societal activities (ecoinvent database v3.0). Log-linear regression analysis was carried out for all pairwise combinations of the 11 methods for identification of correlations in CFs (resources) and total impacts (inventory data sets) between methods. Significant differences in resource coverage were observed (9-73 resources) revealing a trade-off between resource coverage and model complexity. High correlation in CFs between methods did not necessarily manifest in high correlation in total impacts. This indicates that also resource coverage may be critical for impact assessment results. Although no consistent correlations between methods applying similar assessment models could be observed, all methods showed relatively high correlation regarding the assessment of energy resources. Finally, we classify the existing methods into three groups, according to method focus and modeling approach, to aid method selection within LCA.

  1. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    PubMed

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  2. Catastrophe Models: Some Illustrations and Potential for Social Impact Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    England, J. Lynn; Hooper, Douglas A.

    Catastrophe theory may provide a possible model for describing and explaining the boom town phenomena at a generalized level; catastrophe models deal with phenomena in which changes in continuous independent variables lead to sudden, or abrupt, discontinuous changes in a dependent variable. Rural energy boom towns are the result of sudden, abrupt…

  3. A Model for the Assessment of Community College Employee Workload Impact.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyman, Frank J.

    1995-01-01

    Uses input-output analysis to develop a model that assesses the effect of changes in final-demand work on employees at a South Carolina community college. Model uses matrices and the Leontief inverse function to monitor employee workload impact and analyze simulated scenarios. (YKH)

  4. A new assessment method for urbanization environmental impact: urban environment entropy model and its application.

    PubMed

    Ouyang, Tingping; Fu, Shuqing; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Wu, Zhifeng

    2008-11-01

    The thermodynamic law is one of the most widely used scientific principles. The comparability between the environmental impact of urbanization and the thermodynamic entropy was systematically analyzed. Consequently, the concept "Urban Environment Entropy" was brought forward and the "Urban Environment Entropy" model was established for urbanization environmental impact assessment in this study. The model was then utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The results indicated that the assessing results of the model are consistent to that of the equalized synthetic pollution index method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Urban Environment Entropy model has high reliability and can be applied widely in urbanization environmental assessment research using many different environmental parameters.

  5. A model for probabilistic health impact assessment of exposure to food chemicals.

    PubMed

    van der Voet, Hilko; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Bos, Peter M J; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E; Muri, Stefan D; Brüschweiler, Beat J

    2009-12-01

    A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351-371]. The aim is to characterise the health impact due to one or more chemicals present in food causing one or more health effects. For chemicals with hardly any measurable safety problems we propose health impact characterisation by margins of exposure. In this probabilistic model not one margin of exposure is calculated, but rather a distribution of individual margins of exposure (IMoE) which allows quantifying the health impact for small parts of the population. A simple bar chart is proposed to represent the IMoE distribution and a lower bound (IMoEL) quantifies uncertainties in this distribution. It is described how IMoE distributions can be combined for dose-additive compounds and for different health effects. Health impact assessment critically depends on a subjective valuation of the health impact of a given health effect, and possibilities to implement this health impact valuation step are discussed. Examples show the possibilities of health impact characterisation and of integrating IMoE distributions. The paper also includes new proposals for modelling variable and uncertain factors describing food processing effects and intraspecies variation in sensitivity.

  6. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  7. Failure of sewage pumps: statistical modelling and impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Korving, H; Geise, M; Clemens, F

    2006-01-01

    Sewage pumping stations are directly responsible for affecting performance, i.e. failing pumps may result in combined sewer overflows or flooding. However, failures of sewage pumps are not yet incorporated in sewer assessments due to lack of knowledge and data. This paper presents the analysis of pump failure data provided by two sewer management authorities in The Netherlands. Pump failures have been studied accounting for the nature of the failures, the operation and maintenance procedures of the management authority, the ageing of the pumps and the changes in the environment of pumps. The analysis shows that sewage pumps fail relatively often due to the composition of sewage and the discontinuous operation of the pumps. The interarrival time and the duration of failures are highly variable and independent of the pump type and the specific function of the pump. The results also indicate that the serviceability of sewer systems is significantly affected by failing pumps. As a consequence, part of the environmental damage due to CSOs (combined sewer overflows) can be avoided by improving maintenance of pumping stations.

  8. Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rouse, William B.; Hammer, John M.

    1990-01-01

    The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifying limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility.

  9. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/EL TN-15-1 March 2015 Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change ...aspects of climate change can impact contaminant availability and threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) of terrestrial habitats on military...installations. The goal was to develop tools that aid installation managers with better managing climate change impacts. The CMs can be used as a

  10. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  11. Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: The state of biological modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Rauscher, H.M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  12. Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS{reg_sign}): Exposure pathway and human health impact assessment models

    SciTech Connect

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J.

    1995-05-01

    The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) provides physics-based models for human health risk assessment for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. MEPAS analyzes pollutant behavior in various media (air, soil, groundwater and surface water) and estimates transport through and between media and exposure and impacts to the environment, to the maximum individual, and to populations. MEPAS includes 25 exposure pathway models, a database with information on more than 650 contaminants, and a sensitivity module that allows for uncertainty analysis. Four major transport pathways are considered in MEPAS: groundwater, overland, surface water, and atmospheric. This report describes the exposure pathway and health impact assessment component of MEPAS, which provides an estimate of health impacts to selected individuals and populations from exposure to pollutants. The exposure pathway analysis starts with pollutant concentration in a transport medium and estimates the average daily dose to exposed individuals from contact with the transport medium or a secondary medium contaminated by the transport medium. The average daily dose is then used to estimate a measure of health impact appropriate to the type of pollutant considered. Discussions of the exposure pathway models include the assumptions and equations used to convert the transport medium concentrations to exposure medium concentrations. The discussion for a given exposure pathway defines the transport pathways leading to the exposure, the special processes considered in determining the pollutant concentration in the exposure medium, and the exposure model used to estimate the average daily dose. Models for the exposure pathway and health impact assessments require definition of several parameters. A summary of the notation used for these parameters is provided.

  13. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  14. Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, Malcolm L.; Reed, Mark; Anderson, Eric; Isaji, Tatsusaburo; Swanson, J. Craig; Saila, Saul B.; Lorda, Ernesto; Walker, Henry

    1985-01-01

    An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity. The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.

  15. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  16. Process notebook for aquatic ecosystem simulation. [Evaluation of fish models for impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Swartzman, G.; Smith, E.; McKenzie, D.; Haar, B.; Fickeisen, D.

    1980-01-01

    This notebook contains a detailed comparison of 14 models of fish growth, energetics, population dynamics, and feeding. It is a basic document for the evaluation of thes models' usefulness for impact assessment. Model equations are categorized into 18 subprocesses comprising the major processes of consumption, predation, metabolic processes, growth, fecundity, and mortality. The model equations are compared in a standard notation and the equation rationales are considered and put into a historical framework with historical precedence charts. Model parameters are computed in standard units and data sources and techniques used for parameter estimation are identified. A translator compares standard notation with the notation used in the models. The major contribution of this work is that, for the first time, fish models are arrayed with their assumptions laid bare and their parameter values compared, allowing elucidation of model differeances and evaluaton of model behavior and data needs by using the process notebook as a base for further simulation comparison.

  17. Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

    2005-01-01

    The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

  18. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling

    PubMed Central

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2012-01-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were  collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage. PMID:22552921

  19. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

    PubMed

    Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

    2012-09-07

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.

  20. Uncertainty and Evaluation of Impacts Modeling at Regional Scales in Integrated Assessment: the Case of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, L.; Zhou, Y.; Eom, J.; Kyle, P.; Daly, D.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment (IA) models have traditionally focused on the evaluation of climate mitigation strategies. However, in recent years, efforts to consider both impacts and mitigation simultaneously have expanded dramatically. Because climate impacts are inherently regional in scale, the incorporation of impacts into IA modeling - which is inherently global in character - raises a range of challenges beyond the already substantial challenges associated with modeling impacts. In particular, it raises questions about how to best evaluate and diagnose the resulting representations of impacts, and how to characterize the uncertainty surrounding associated projections. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and uncertainties surrounding modeling climate impacts on building heating and cooling demands in an integrated assessment modeling framework - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The presentation will first discuss the issues associated with modeling building heating and cooling degree days in IA models. It will review research using spatially explicit climate and population information to inform a standard version of GCAM with fourteen geopolitical regions. It will discuss a new subregional version of GCAM in which building energy consumption is resolved at a fifty-state level. The presentation will also characterize efforts to link GCAM to more technologically resolved buildings models to gain insights about demands at higher temporal resolution. The second portion of the presentation will discuss the uncertainties associated with projections of building heating and cooling demands at various scales. A range of key uncertainties are important. This includes a range of uncertainties surrounding the nature of changes to global and regional climates, with particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding temperature projections. In addition, the linkage in this research between human and Earth systems means that the projections are

  1. Stochastic modeling of triple-frequency BeiDou signals: estimation, assessment and impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bofeng

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic models are important in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) estimation problems. One can achieve reliable ambiguity resolution and precise positioning only by use of a suitable stochastic model. The BeiDou system has received increased research focus, but based only on empirical stochastic models from the knowledge of GPS. In this paper, we will systematically study the estimation, assessment and impacts of a triple-frequency BeiDou stochastic model. In our estimation problem, a single-difference, geometry-free functional model is used to extract pure random noise. A very sophisticated structure of unknown variance matrix is designed to allow the estimation of satellite-specific variances, cross correlations between two arbitrary frequencies, as well as the time correlations for phase and code observations per frequency. In assessing the stochastic models, six data sets with four brands of BeiDou receivers on short and zero-length baselines are processed, and the results are compared. In impact analysis of stochastic model, the performance of integer ambiguity resolution and positioning are numerically demonstrated using a realistic stochastic model. The results from ultrashort (shorter than 10 m) and zero-length baselines indicate that BeiDou stochastic models are affected by both observation and receiver brands. The observation variances have been modeled by an elevation-dependent function, but the modeling errors for geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites are larger than for inclined geosynchronous satellite orbit (IGSO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. The stochastic model is governed by both the internal errors of the receiver and external errors at the site. Different receivers have different capabilities for resisting external errors. A realistic stochastic model is very important for achieving ambiguity resolution with a high success rate and small false alarm and for determining realistic variances for position estimates. To

  2. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status

    PubMed Central

    Seim, Gretchen L.; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P.; Young, Sera L.

    2016-01-01

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

  3. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status.

    PubMed

    Seim, Gretchen L; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P; Young, Sera L

    2016-06-13

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status.

  4. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  5. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  6. A model for the rapid assessment of the impact of aviation noise near airports.

    PubMed

    Torija, Antonio J; Self, Rod H; Flindell, Ian H

    2017-02-01

    This paper introduces a simplified model [Rapid Aviation Noise Evaluator (RANE)] for the calculation of aviation noise within the context of multi-disciplinary strategic environmental assessment where input data are both limited and constrained by compatibility requirements against other disciplines. RANE relies upon the concept of noise cylinders around defined flight-tracks with the Noise Radius determined from publicly available Noise-Power-Distance curves rather than the computationally intensive multiple point-to-point grid calculation with subsequent ISO-contour interpolation methods adopted in the FAA's Integrated Noise Model (INM) and similar models. Preliminary results indicate that for simple single runway scenarios, changes in airport noise contour areas can be estimated with minimal uncertainty compared against grid-point calculation methods such as INM. In situations where such outputs are all that is required for preliminary strategic environmental assessment, there are considerable benefits in reduced input data and computation requirements. Further development of the noise-cylinder-based model (such as the incorporation of lateral attenuation, engine-installation-effects or horizontal track dispersion via the assumption of more complex noise surfaces formed around the flight-track) will allow for more complex assessment to be carried out. RANE is intended to be incorporated into technology evaluators for the noise impact assessment of novel aircraft concepts.

  7. A statistical concept to assess the uncertainty in Bayesian model weights and its impact on model ranking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-09-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) ranks the plausibility of alternative conceptual models according to Bayes' theorem. A prior belief about each model's adequacy is updated to a posterior model probability based on the skill to reproduce observed data and on the principle of parsimony. The posterior model probabilities are then used as model weights for model ranking, selection, or averaging. Despite the statistically rigorous BMA procedure, model weights can become uncertain quantities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set or due to uncertainty in model input. Uncertain weights may in turn compromise the reliability of BMA results. We present a new statistical concept to investigate this weighting uncertainty, and thus, to assess the significance of model weights and the confidence in model ranking. Our concept is to resample the uncertain input or output data and then to analyze the induced variability in model weights. In the special case of weighting uncertainty due to measurement noise in the calibration data set, we interpret statistics of Bayesian model evidence to assess the distance of a model's performance from the theoretical upper limit. To illustrate our suggested approach, we investigate the reliability of soil-plant model selection following up on a study by Wöhling et al. (2015). Results show that the BMA routine should be equipped with our suggested upgrade to (1) reveal the significant but otherwise undetected impact of measurement noise on model ranking results and (2) to decide whether the considered set of models should be extended with better performing alternatives.

  8. A multi-model integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire Elsner, M.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miles, E. L.

    2008-12-01

    In April 2007, the State of Washington passed legislation mandating a comprehensive statewide assessment of the impacts of climate change over the next 100 years. The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) is working with Washington State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and state agencies to perform an integrated assessment on the effects of climate change for eight statewide sectors: public health, agriculture, the coastal zone, forest ecosystems, salmon, infrastructure, energy, and water supply and management. An additional Climate Scenarios Working Group serves the eight other sectors by providing projections of future regional climate, downscaled to 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the state of Washington. We utilize projections from A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, as simulated by the full suite of 20 GCMs, archived in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In this approach, we apply 40 ensembles of statistically downscaled future climate to drive hydrologic model simulations. Each sector incorporates the projections of climatic and hydrologic variables in their evaluations of the impacts of climate change. Here we present impacts on hydrologic variables (such as snowpack and streamflow), as well as related implications for several of the sectors listed above, over the State of Washington for three periods: the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. We also discuss CIG's collaboration with multi-stakeholder adaptation working groups to identify potential barriers to adaptation and strategies to address the projected impacts in each sector.

  9. Life cycle impact assessment of terrestrial acidification: modeling spatially explicit soil sensitivity at the global scale.

    PubMed

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2012-08-07

    This paper presents a novel life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) approach to derive spatially explicit soil sensitivity indicators for terrestrial acidification. This global approach is compatible with a subsequent damage assessment, making it possible to consistently link the developed midpoint indicators with a later endpoint assessment along the cause-effect chain-a prerequisite in LCIA. Four different soil chemical indicators were preselected to evaluate sensitivity factors (SFs) for regional receiving environments at the global scale, namely the base cations to aluminum ratio, aluminum to calcium ratio, pH, and aluminum concentration. These chemical indicators were assessed using the PROFILE geochemical steady-state soil model and a global data set of regional soil parameters developed specifically for this study. Results showed that the most sensitive regions (i.e., where SF is maximized) are in Canada, northern Europe, the Amazon, central Africa, and East and Southeast Asia. However, the approach is not bereft of uncertainty. Indeed, a Monte Carlo analysis showed that input parameter variability may induce SF variations of up to over 6 orders of magnitude for certain chemical indicators. These findings improve current practices and enable the development of regional characterization models to assess regional life cycle inventories in a global economy.

  10. Assessing the impact of policy changes in the Icelandic cod fishery using a hybrid simulation model.

    PubMed

    Sigurðardóttir, Sigríður; Johansson, Björn; Margeirsson, Sveinn; Viðarsson, Jónas R

    2014-01-01

    Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA) for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities.

  11. The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, E. M.; Bates, P. D.; Freer, J. E.; Mason, D. C.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryThe performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however, these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we determine the patterns of uncertainty in an ERS-2 SAR image of flooding on the River Dee, UK and, using LISFLOOD-FP, evaluate how this uncertainty can influence the assessment of flood inundation model performance. The flood outline is intersected with high resolution LiDAR topographic data to extract water levels at the flood margin, and to estimate patterns of uncertainty the gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. We find the residuals between the satellite data points and the reference line to be spatially clustered. A new method of evaluating model performance is developed to test the impact of this spatial dependency on model calibration. This method uses multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation points that have no significant spatial dependency; tested for using Moran's I. LISFLOOD-FP is then calibrated using conventional binary pattern matching and water elevation comparison both with and without spatial dependency. It is shown that model calibration carried out using pattern matching is negatively influenced by spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. Accounting for spatial dependency reduces the estimated modelled error and gives an identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data; it also has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Further, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess how the noisiness in these data affects our understanding of flood risk. This has highlighted the requirement for a probabilistic

  12. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model.

  13. Model assessing the impact of biomass burning on air quality and photochemistry in Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, W.; Li, G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Yokelson, R. J.; Molina, L. T.

    2010-12-01

    Biomass burning is a major global emission source for trace gases and particulates. Various multi-platform measurements during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA)-2003 and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO)-2006 campaigns suggest significant influences of biomass burning (BB) on air quality in Mexico City during the dry season, and the observations show emissions from BB impose viable yet highly variable impacts on organic aerosols (OA) in and around Mexico City. We have developed emission inventories for forest fires surrounding Mexico City based on measurement-estimated emission factors and MODIS fire counts, and for garbage fires in Mexico City based on in situ-measured emission factors and the population distribution and socioeconomic data. In this study, we will comprehensively assess the impact of biomass burning on the aerosol loading, chemical composition, OA formation and photochemistry in Mexico City using WRF-Chem. Analysis of the model results, in conjunction with concurrent field measurements, will be presented.

  14. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  15. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    PubMed

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

  16. Regional Climate Modeling at ZAMG and climate impact assessment for European ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, I.; Zuvela-Aloise, M.; Matulla, C.

    2010-09-01

    The Austrian society, policy, economy and environment request information on changes in the climate during the last years and especially for the near and remote future. Floodings, landslides, snow avalanches and storms belong to the natural hazards that highly impact Austria's socio-economic and environmental systems. In addition to already applied empirical regional modeling at ZAMG there was started dynamical regional climate modeling (RCM) with the COSMOS-CLM (CCLM, http://www.clm-community.eu/) at ZAMG in 2009. The main objective of the Austrian national project "reclip:century" (in cooperation with other Austrian Institutes) is to provide high resolved data sets of climate simulations for the GAR. A one-way double nesting approach is used. The domain used in the first step is Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.44° (50km). Within this simulation the GAR domain is nested having a resolution of 0.09° (10km). The output of these simulations will be evaluated within the project EVACLIM. This is to be done by comparing the output with a variety of regional scale observational datasets. The results of the simulations will be made available to the impact community. Within the international based project HABIT-CHANGE 10km-resolution climate scenarios will be generated. The data sets produced for two different regions the GAR and the Danube Delta - shall be used as a basis for the work of hydrology modelers and for the development of strategies for adaptation and mitigation Based on the CCLM simulations at ZAMG of about 0.03° (4km) spatial resolution for the Northeast of Austria, the project DISTURBANCE aims to develop integrated models for temperate Alpine forest ecosystems. Important tasks for the forest modeling are not only the assessment of changes in temperature, drought and windstorms but also the interactions between wind damages and bark beetle development which might impact the forest structure and its composition of species. In the project DATAPHEN

  17. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S> ; KramerWhite, Julie A.; KramerWhite, Julie A.; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2007-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  18. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  19. Assessing human impact on droughts in a tropical Vietnamese catchment using a combined modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Ribbe, Lars; Tran Van, Tra; Viet, Trinh Quoc; Firoz, Abm; Fink, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    Historical drought frequency, drought risk and types are still poorly investigated in tropical regions and particularly in South East Asia. However, evolving drought periods during the dry season severely impact on socio economic factors such as livelihood (irrigated rice production), hydropower generation and urban water supply in such regions as in the VuGiaThuBon river basin (10,350 km²) in Central Vietnam. Besides the increasing frequency of heat waves and prolonged dry periods without rainfall, hydropower development and over-exploitation of water resources due to demographic and socioeconomic development are the main causes for drought-related disasters and subsequent salt water intrusion. Precipitation and runoff time series from 1982 to 2009 were used to assess drought severity and typology before hydropower development started in 2010. We applied different rainfall-runoff modelling approaches of increasing complexity (HBV light, J2000 and Mike NAM) as well as meteorological and hydrological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its runoff homologue (SRI). In the scope of the BMBF funded research project "Land use and Climate Change interactions (LUCCi)" (www.lucci-vietnam.info), the impacts of the human-induced hydrological alterations on drought risk were quantified by integrating the distributed physically-based hydrological model J2000 with the reservoir operation tool HEC ResSim and the River basin model Mike Basin to simulate the runoff to the coastal system. The salt water intrusion behavior in the flat coastal area was represented by the hydrodynamic Mike 11 model relating low flow thresholds to salt intrusion. The different discharge simulations before and after the reservoir construction were compared and evaluated regarding their relevance for the drought severity being dominated either by meteorological dry spells or hydrological alterations. Results show a clear impact of the hydropower reservoir and resulting

  20. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change.

  1. Assessing the impact of Amazonia logging with a new ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Berry, J. A.; Bustamante, M. M.

    2006-12-01

    Old-growth Amazonian forests play a fundamental role in the global climate and carbon cycle. Land use in old- growth tropical forests contributes to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and can alter the hydrological cycle, locally, regionally, and globally. Although deforestation, largely for the conversion of land to food crops or pastures, is the major destructive force in tropical forests worldwide (Houghton et al., 2000), other forest disturbances such as the selective logging have also increased in frequency and extent. Selective logging causes widespread collateral damage to remaining trees, sub-canopy vegetation, and soils, with impacts on hydrological processes, erosion, fire, carbon storage, and plant and animal species. In this study, the impact of selective logging on the carbon budget of the Brazil Amazon region is assessed with a new 3-D version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model, which features: (1) an alternative way of estimating absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (APAR) by taking advantage of new high-resolution maps of forest canopy gap fraction; (2) a pulse disturbance module to realistically modify the carbon pools after timber harvest; (3) a regrowth module considering changes in community composition; and (4) a radiative transfer module for charactering the dynamic 3-D light environment above the canopy and within gaps after logging. The model was calibrated and validated with field observations from the Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and its sensitivity was evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of selected logging on regional carbon budget of the Brazilian Amazon were then assessed under different future climate change scenarios. Results from this study quantify the gross and net carbon storage effects of widespread logging practices throughout the Brazilian Amazon.

  2. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change.

  3. Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

    PubMed

    Dhondt, Stijn; Kochan, Bruno; Beckx, Carolien; Lefebvre, Wouter; Pirdavani, Ali; Degraeuwe, Bart; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

    2013-01-01

    Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make

  4. Assessment of Three Finite Element Approaches for Modeling the Ballistic Impact Failure of Metal Plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansur, Ali; Nganbe, Michel

    2015-03-01

    The ballistic impact was numerically modeled for AISI 450 steel struck by a 17.3 g ogive nose WC-Co projectile using Abaqus/Explicit. The model was validated using experimental results and data for different projectiles and metal targets. The Abaqus ductile-shear, local principal strain to fracture, and absorbed strain energy at failure criteria were investigated. Due to the highly dynamic nature of ballistic impacts, the absorbed strain energy approach posed serious challenges in estimating the effective deformation volume and yielded the largest critical plate thicknesses for through-thickness penetration (failure). In contrast, the principal strain criterion yielded the lowest critical thicknesses and provided the best agreement with experimental ballistic test data with errors between 0 and 30%. This better accuracy was due to early failure definition when the very first mesh at the target back side reached the strain to fracture, which compensated for the overall model overestimation. The ductile-shear criterion yielded intermediate results between those of the two comparative approaches. In contrast to the ductile-shear criterion, the principal strain criterion requires only basic data readily available for practically all materials. Therefore, it is a viable alternative for an initial assessment of the ballistic performance and pre-screening of a large number of new candidate materials as well as for supporting the development of novel armor systems.

  5. Utilizing geographic information systems technology in the Wyoming cumulative hydrologic impact assessment modeling process

    SciTech Connect

    Hamerlinck, J.D.; Oakleaf, J.R.

    1997-12-31

    The coal-permitting process places heavy demands on both permit applicants and regulatory authorities with respect to the management and analysis of hydrologic data. Currently, this correlation is being addressed for the Powder River Basin, Wyoming by the ongoing Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment (CHIA) efforts at the University of Wyoming. One critical component of the CHIA is the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for support, management, manipulation, pre-analysis, and display of data associated with the chosen groundwater and surface water models. This paper will discuss the methodology in using of GIS technology as an integrated tool with the MODFLOW and HEC-1 hydrologic models. Pre-existing GIS links associated with these two models served as a foundation for this effort. However, due to established standards and site specific factors, substantial modifications were performed on existing tools to obtain adequate results. The groundwater-modeling effort required the use of a refined grid in which cell sizes varied based on the relative locations of ongoing mining activities. Surface water modeling was performed in a semi-arid region with very limited topographic relief and predominantly ephemeral stream channels. These were substantial issues that presented challenges for effective GIS/model integration.

  6. Observational techniques for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in catchment scale flood impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Wilkinson, Mark; Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    river stem and principal tributaries, it is possible to understand in detail how floods develop and propagate, both temporally and spatially. Traditional rainfall-runoff modelling involves the calibration of model parameters to achieve a best fit against an observed flow series, typically at a single location. The modelling approach adopted here is novel in that it directly uses the nested observed information to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of the source locations. Using a combination of local evidence and expert opinion, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed land use management changes and NFM on floods. These studies demonstrate the power of networks of observational instrumentation for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in prediction.

  7. Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration

    PubMed Central

    Shaffer, Gary; Pollard, David; Guan, Yawen; Wong, Tony E.; Forest, Chris E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks. PMID:28081273

  8. Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration.

    PubMed

    Ruckert, Kelsey L; Shaffer, Gary; Pollard, David; Guan, Yawen; Wong, Tony E; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks.

  9. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  10. Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanna, R. Blair; Campbell, Sharon G.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

  11. Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

    2015-12-01

    The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

  12. Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

  13. A systematic impact assessment of GRACE error correlation on data assimilation in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Döll, Petra

    2016-06-01

    Recently, ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have found increasing application for merging hydrological models with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) fields from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Previous studies have disregarded the effect of spatially correlated errors of GRACE TWSA products in their investigations. Here, for the first time, we systematically assess the impact of the GRACE error correlation structure on EnKF data assimilation into a hydrological model, i.e. on estimated compartmental and total water storages and model parameter values. Our investigations include (1) assimilating gridded GRACE-derived TWSA into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model and, simultaneously, calibrating its parameters; (2) introducing GRACE observations on different spatial scales; (3) modelling observation errors as either spatially white or correlated in the assimilation procedure, and (4) replacing the standard EnKF algorithm by the square root analysis scheme or, alternatively, the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman filter. Results of a synthetic experiment designed for the Mississippi River Basin indicate that the hydrological parameters are sensitive to TWSA assimilation if spatial resolution of the observation data is sufficiently high. We find a significant influence of spatial error correlation on the adjusted water states and model parameters for all implemented filter variants, in particular for subbasins with a large discrepancy between observed and initially simulated TWSA and for north-south elongated sub-basins. Considering these correlated errors, however, does not generally improve results: while some metrics indicate that it is helpful to consider the full GRACE error covariance matrix, it appears to have an adverse effect on others. We conclude that considering the characteristics of GRACE error correlation is at least as important as the selection of the spatial discretisation of TWSA observations, while the choice

  14. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  15. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  16. NUMERICAL MODELS AS ENABLING TOOLS FOR TIDAL-STREAM ENERGY EXTRACTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping

    2016-06-24

    This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate tidal-stream energy extraction and its associated potential environmental impacts using a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model, which was coupled with a water-quality model and a tidal-turbine module.

  17. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  18. Community Impact Assessment Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Northern Alberta Development Council, Peace River.

    This handbook is intended for communities that wish to undertake their own community impact assessment (CIA). The goal is to enable communities to plan for changes before they occur, so they can cope with changes when they do occur. CIA involves forecasting and evaluating the full range of unintended consequences for the community of development…

  19. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  20. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  1. Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, S. C.; Lewis, G.; Bartel, R.; Batten, B.; Huang, W.; Morris, J.; Slinn, D. N.; Sparks, J.; Walters, L.; Wang, D.; Weishampel, J.; Yeh, G.

    2010-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to affect a variety of coastal habitats with a myriad of deleterious ecological effects and to overwhelm human settlements along the coast. SLR should be given serious consideration when more than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast. SLR effects will be felt along coastal beaches and in estuarine waters, with consequences to barrier islands, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, sand and mud flats, oyster reefs, and tidal and freshwater wetlands. Managers of these coastal resources must be aware of potential consequences of SLR and adjust their plans accordingly to protect and preserve the resources under their care. The Gulf Coast provides critical habitats for a majority of the commercially important species in the Gulf of Mexico, which depend on inshore waters for either permanent residence or nursery area. The ecosystem services provided by these coastal habitats are at risk from rising sea level. Our team will assess the risk to coasts and coastal habitats from SLR in a 5-year project. We will apply existing models of circulation and transport from the watershed to the sea. The ultimate prediction will be of sediment loadings to the estuary as a result of overland flow, shoreline and barrier island erosion, and salinity transport, all of which will be used to model the evolution of intertidal marshes (MEM II). Over the five-year course of our research we will be simulating hydrodynamics and transport for all three NERRS reserves, including: Apalachicola, Weeks Bay and Grand Bay. The project will result in products whereby managers will be able to assess marshes, oyster reefs, submerged aquatic vegetation, predict wetland stability and indentify restoration locations for marsh and oyster habitats. In addition, we will produce Decision Support tools that will enable managers to predict future coastal erosion rates for management-specified shorelines. Project outcomes will enable the management

  2. Utilizing an Innovative Evaluation Model To Assess Impacts of Training Adult Educators on Reaching Limited Resource Audiences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Safrit, R. Dale; And Others

    An interagency conference, Reading Families and Youth Who Have Limited Resources, was held in September 1992. Over a 2-day period, 186 adult educators and human service professionals participated in 27 different workshops. An innovative evaluation model was developed to assess the impacts of conference participation on reaching audiences who have…

  3. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  4. Geothermal Electricity Technologies Evaluation Model DOE Tool for Assessing Impact of Research on Cost of Power

    SciTech Connect

    Greg Mines

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a spreadsheet model to provide insight as to how its research activities can impact of cost of producing power from geothermal energy. This model is referred to as GETEM, which stands for “Geothermal Electricity Technologies Evaluation Model”. Based on user input, the model develops estimates of costs associated with exploration, well field development, and power plant construction that are used along with estimated operating costs to provide a predicted power generation cost. The model allows the user to evaluate how reductions in cost, or increases in performance or productivity will impact the predicted power generation cost. This feature provides a means of determining how specific technology improvements can impact generation costs, and as such assists DOE in both prioritizing research areas and identifying where research is needed.

  5. Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

    2016-04-01

    Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically

  6. Dose-Response Modeling for Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Findingsof the Portland Review Workshop

    SciTech Connect

    McKone, Thomas E.; Kyle, Amy D.; Jolliet, Olivier; Olsen, StigIrving; Hauschild, Michael

    2006-06-01

    The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative aims at putting life cycle thinking into practice and at improving the supporting tools for this process through better data and indicators. The initiative has thus launched three programs with associated working groups (see http://www.uneptie.org/pc/sustain/lcinitiative/). The Task Force on Toxic Impacts was established under the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) program to establish recommended practice and guidance for use in human toxicity, ecosystem toxicity, and related categories with direct effects on human health and ecosystem health. The workshop consisted of three elements. (A) presentations summarizing (1) the goals of the LCIA Task Force (2) historical approaches to exposure and toxic impacts in LCIA (3) current alternative proposals for addressing human health impacts. Viewgraphs from two of these presentations are provided in Appendix B to this report. (B) Discussion among a panel of experts about the scientific defensibility of these historical and proposed approaches in the context of the goals of the LCIA Task Force 3 on toxicity impacts. (C) Development of the recommendations to the LCIA program and working group for optimum short- and long-term strategies for addressing human health impacts in LCA.

  7. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538. [Concerning the impact at power plants on fish populations

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, S W

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods.

  8. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives. PMID:26959240

  9. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew F.; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon

    2014-03-01

    Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin

  10. Advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for assessing welfare impacts associated with vertebrate pest control.

    PubMed

    Beausoleil, N J; Mellor, D J

    2015-01-01

    Many pest control activities have the potential to impact negatively on the welfare of animals, and animal welfare is an important consideration in the development, implementation and evaluation of ethically defensible vertebrate pest control. Thus, reliable and accurate methods for assessing welfare impacts are required. The Five Domains model provides a systematic method for identifying potential or actual welfare impacts associated with an event or situation in four physical or functional domains (nutrition, environment, health or functional status, behaviour) and one mental domain (overall mental or affective state). Here we evaluate the advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for this purpose and illustrate them using specific examples from a recent assessment of the welfare impacts of poisons used to lethally control possums in New Zealand. The model has a number of advantages which include the following: the systematic identification of a wide range of impacts associated with a variety of control tools; the production of relative rankings of tools in terms of their welfare impacts; the easy incorporation of new information into assessments; and the highlighting of additional information needed. For example, a recent analysis of sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poisoning in possums revealed the need for more information on the period from the onset of clinical signs to the point at which consciousness is lost, as well as on the level of consciousness during or after the occurrence of muscle spasms and seizures. The model is also valuable because it clearly separates physical or functional and affective impacts, encourages more comprehensive consideration of negative affective experiences than has occurred in the past, and allows development and evaluation of targeted mitigation strategies. Caution must be used in interpreting and applying the outputs of the model, most importantly because relative rankings or grades are fundamentally qualitative in

  11. Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and Addressing Impacts from Port Expansion and Traffic Activity

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include ...

  12. Numerical modeling of chemical spills and assessment of their environmental impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Chemical spills in surface water bodies often occur in modern societies, which cause significant impacts on water quality, eco-environment and drinking water safety. In this paper, chemical spill contamination in water resources was studied using a depth-integrated computational model, CCHE2D, for p...

  13. A Model Program To Assess a College's Impact by Census Tract.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gelfman, Arnold J.; Banacki, J. Robert

    Using figures for Monmouth County and Brookdale Community College (BCC) in New Jersey, this report presents a methodological model for using census tract data to determine the impact of a college or university on the communities it serves. Introductory material lists the types of demographic information available for each census tract and states…

  14. Modeling the influence of temporal and spatial factors on the assessment of impacts of pesticides on skylarks.

    PubMed

    Topping, Christopher John; Odderskaer, Peter

    2004-02-01

    Spatio-temporal factors strongly influence the population dynamics of animals; thus there have been calls to integrate these factors in environmental impact assessment of toxic compounds. To date, methodological difficulties have probably prevented this union. However, new modeling techniques that could help are available. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based simulation model of skylarks in agricultural landscapes and its use to assess the impact of pesticides relative to changes in landscape structure and mortality assumptions. Simulations indicated that pesticides had a negative impact on skylark population size. The annual reduction in numbers was variable and depended primarily upon migration mortality and an interaction between weather and pesticides. Altering landscape structure, crop diversity, or migration mortality assumptions resulted in a population change of approximately 37%, compared to a mean of 4% for pesticides. It was concluded that factors other than pesticides are likely to be limiting skylark numbers in most landscapes. This study demonstrates the importance of modeling the interactions between spatio-temporal environmental factors and the study organisms. Agent-based models (ABMs) are able to extract these relationships as emergent properties of their mechanistic nature. Therefore, we recommend the use of ABM models in future regulatory assessment of pesticides.

  15. Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

  16. Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bucinell, Ronald B.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

  17. Mechanistic Modeling of Emergency Events: Assessing the Impact of Hypothetical Releases of Anthrax

    PubMed Central

    Isukapalli, S. S.; Lioy, P. J.; Georgopoulos, P. G.

    2011-01-01

    A modular system for source-to-dose-to-effect modeling analysis has been developed based on the modeling environment for total risk studies (MENTOR),(1) and applied to study the impacts of hypothetical atmospheric releases of anthrax spores. The system, MENTOR-2E (MENTOR for Emergency Events), provides mechanistically consistent analysis of inhalation exposures for various release scenarios, while allowing consideration of specific susceptible subpopulations (such as the elderly) at the resolution of individual census tracts. The MENTOR-2E application presented here includes atmospheric dispersion modeling, statistically representative samples of individuals along with corresponding activity patterns, and population-based dosimetry modeling that accounts for activity and physiological variability. Two hypothetical release scenarios were simulated: a 100 g release of weaponized B. anthracis over a period of (a) one hour and (b) 10 hours, and the impact of these releases on population in the State of New Jersey was studied. Results were compared with those from simplified modeling of population dynamics (location, activities, etc.), and atmospheric dispersion of anthrax spores. The comparisons showed that in the two release scenarios simulated, each major approximation resulted in an overestimation of the number of probable infections by a factor of 5 to 10; these overestimations can have significant public health implications when preparing for and responding effectively to an actual release. This is in addition to uncertainties in dose-response modeling, which result in an additional factor of 5 to 10 variation in estimated casualties. The MENTOR-2E system has been developed in a modular fashion so that improvements in individual modules can be readily made without impacting the other modules, and provides a first step toward the development of models that can be used in supporting real-time decision making. PMID:18643828

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  19. Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

    Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to

  20. Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-03-01

    As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

  1. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  2. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  3. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  4. Assessing Model Characterization of Single Source Secondary Pollutant Impacts Using 2013 SENEX Field Study Measurements.

    PubMed

    Baker, Kirk R; Woody, Matthew C

    2017-03-15

    Aircraft measurements made downwind from specific coal fired power plants during the 2013 Southeast Nexus field campaign provide a unique opportunity to evaluate single source photochemical model predictions of both O3 and secondary PM2.5 species. The model did well at predicting downwind plume placement. The model shows similar patterns of an increasing fraction of PM2.5 sulfate ion to the sum of SO2 and PM2.5 sulfate ion by distance from the source compared with ambient based estimates. The model was less consistent in capturing downwind ambient based trends in conversion of NOX to NOY from these sources. Source sensitivity approaches capture near-source O3 titration by fresh NO emissions, in particular subgrid plume treatment. However, capturing this near-source chemical feature did not translate into better downwind peak estimates of single source O3 impacts. The model estimated O3 production from these sources but often was lower than ambient based source production. The downwind transect ambient measurements, in particular secondary PM2.5 and O3, have some level of contribution from other sources which makes direct comparison with model source contribution challenging. Model source attribution results suggest contribution to secondary pollutants from multiple sources even where primary pollutants indicate the presence of a single source.

  5. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  6. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  7. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    SciTech Connect

    Nooij, R.J.W. de . E-mail: R.deNooij@science.ru.nl; Lotterman, K.M.; Sande, P.H.J. van de; Pelsma, T.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.; Lenders, H.J.R.

    2006-11-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments

  8. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  9. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  10. The role of model selection in representing evapotranspiration processes in climate impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2015-04-01

    Projected changes to near-surface atmospheric temperature, wind, humidity and solar radiation are expected to lead to changes in evaporative demand - and thus changes to the catchment water balance - in many catchments worldwide. To quantify likely implications on runoff, a modelling chain is commonly used in which the meteorological variables are first converted to potential evapotranspiration (PET), followed by the conversion of PET to runoff using one or more rainfall-runoff models. The role of the PET model and rainfall-runoff model selection on changes to the catchment water balance is assessed using a sensitivity analysis applied to data from five climatologically different catchments in Australia. Changes to temperature have the strongest influence on both evapotranspiration and runoff for all models and catchments, whereas the relative role of the remaining variables depends on both the catchment location and the PET and rainfall-runoff model choice. Importantly, sensitivity experiments show that 1) distributions of climate variables differ for dry/wet conditions; 2) seasonal distribution of changes to PET differs for driving variables. These findings suggest possible interactions between PET model selection and the way that evapotranspiration processes are represented within rainfall-runoff model. For a constant percentage change to PET, this effect can lead to five-fold difference in runoff changes depending on which meteorological variable is being perturbed.

  11. Integrated assessment of acid deposition impacts using reduced-form modeling. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Sinha, R.; Small, M.J.

    1996-05-01

    Emissions of sulfates and other acidic pollutants from anthropogenic sources result in the deposition of these acidic pollutants on the earth`s surface, downwind of the source. These pollutants reach surface waters, including streams and lakes, and acidify them, resulting in a change in the chemical composition of the surface water. Sometimes the water chemistry is sufficiently altered so that the lake can no longer support aquatic life. This document traces the efforts by many researchers to understand and quantify the effect of acid deposition on the water chemistry of populations of lakes, in particular the improvements to the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) modeling effort, and describes its reduced-form representation in a decision and uncertainty analysis tool. Previous reduced-form approximations to the MAGIC model are discussed in detail, and their drawbacks are highlighted. An improved reduced-form model for acid neutralizing capacity is presented, which incorporates long-term depletion of the watershed acid neutralization fraction. In addition, improved fish biota models are incorporated in the integrated assessment model, which includes reduced-form models for other physical and chemical processes of acid deposition, as well as the resulting socio-economic and health related effects. The new reduced-form lake chemistry and fish biota models are applied to the Adirondacks region of New York.

  12. Assessing the impacts of agricultural change on soil erosion over the last century: a multi-model ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sellami, Haykel; Smith, Hugh; Sangster, Heather; Riley, Mark; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil erosion models (SEMs) are valuable tools for understanding the links between past agricultural practices and soil erosion. Use of SEMs allows assessment of impacts from agricultural change over timescales that exceed instrumental records but correspond to periods for which considerable land use and climate information are available. Here, we develop a modelling framework to investigate the potential impacts of changes in agricultural practices and climate on soil erosion and sediment transport over the last 100 years in six lake catchments in Britain spanning upland and lowland environments. The modelling platform comprises a multi-model ensemble of derivatives of the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) and RUSLE models. Simulation of change in land use/land cover (LULC), drainage features, crop rotation and livestock grazing are accounted for by reconstructing LULC maps from 1888 to 2007. Reconstructions of climatic conditions combine multiple records using regression and artificial neural network techniques to derive long-term daily precipitation and temperature series from 1880 to present. The modelling platform uses a grid-based modelling approach to handle the spatial distribution and heterogeneity in LULC, soil and topographic information. For each soil type, a database of physical parameters was created by combining information from the literature, LandIS soil database and pedotransfer functions. At each grid cell, a rainfall-Runoff (RR) model based on saturation excess runoff generation mechanisms provides daily soil moisture content. Furthermore, the modelling platform encompasses a crop cover model (CC) based on the Heat Unit approach developed to simulate daily Leaf Area Index for each crop type. Both the RR and CC models are used to update the canopy and ground cover parameters. In the absence of long-term river monitoring data, lake sediment records are used to compare the multi-model simulations thus creating a baseline from which to project impacts from

  13. A computational model for assessing high-velocity debris impact in space applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergh, M.; Garcia, V.

    2017-01-01

    Man-made space debris is dominating the background meteorite environment with a growing debris population leading to increased collision risks for satellites, especially in the low Earth orbit and geostationary orbit protected environments. Here we present a computational model for estimating the effect of hypervelocity impact from debris particles on non-shielded propellant and pressurant tanks. Eulerian hydrocode simulation is utilised to model firstly penetration and shock wave formation in the propellant and secondly subsequent detonation wave propagation and interaction with the tank wall. Furthermore, reactive molecular dynamics is used to estimate the risk of detonation in a liquid hydrazine layer. We present simulations of a 3.5 mm aluminium spherical debris particle at a velocity of 14 km/s relative to a hydrazine tank. We find that the degree of damage is strongly dependent on tank temperature and hence on the satellite thermal configuration at its end of life.

  14. Impact assessment of non-indigenous jellyfish species on the estuarine community dynamic: A model of medusa phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muha, Teja Petra; Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Ben-Hamadou, Radhouan

    2017-03-01

    Non-indigenous jellyfish species (NIJS) Blackforida virginica have recently been introduced to the Guadiana Estuary. A modelling approach was used for the assessment of the species-specific impact on the native community, during the medusa phase. The novel interactions between NIJS and the native community are assessed through biomass variation including hydrodynamic and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis shows that both native species, as well as NIJS highly depend on the water discharge regime, nutrient contribution and the amount of detritus production. Abiotic factors such as the Northern Atlantic Oscillation, water discharge, nutrient load and detritus production are the most influential factors for the dynamics of the estuarine ecosystem demonstrated by the model. Low water discharge and low nutrient retention rate appear to be the most favourable conditions for B. virginica. The species is a non-selective predator able to integrate into the system effectively and has caused a decrease in the biomass of other organisms in the estuarine ecosystem throughout the summer after dam removal. The B. virginica significant impact can be evaluated only when the jellyfish detritus food pathway is involved. The B. virginica predatory impact potential, as well as food preference, appears to be the most influential factors for the overall biomass variation. On the contrary, winter freshwater pulses reduce the survival rate of jellyfish polyps which results in a decrease of medusa during summer. The model presents a strong ecohydrology movement where the fluctuation of organism biomass strongly depends on the hydrological conditions including the amount of nutrient load.

  15. Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission - Full-Scale Modeling and Simulation of Ejecta Evolution and Fates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fahnestock, Eugene G.; Yu, Yang; Hamilton, Douglas P.; Schwartz, Stephen; Stickle, Angela; Miller, Paul L.; Cheng, Andy F.; Michel, Patrick; AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group

    2016-10-01

    The proposed Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission includes NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), whose impact with the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos is expected to liberate large amounts of ejecta. We present efforts within the AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group to comprehensively simulate the behavior of this impact ejecta as it moves through and exits the system. Group members at JPL, OCA, and UMD have been working largely independently, developing their own strategies and methodologies. Ejecta initial conditions may be imported from output of hydrocode impact simulations or generated from crater scaling laws derived from point-source explosion models. We started with the latter approach, using reasonable assumptions for the secondary's density, porosity, surface cohesive strength, and vanishingly small net gravitational/rotational surface acceleration. We adopted DART's planned size, mass, closing velocity, and impact geometry for the cratering event. Using independent N-Body codes, we performed Monte Carlo integration of ejecta particles sampled over reasonable particle size ranges, and over launch locations within the crater footprint. In some cases we scaled the number of integrated particles in various size bins to the estimated number of particles consistent with a realistic size-frequency distribution. Dynamical models used for the particle integration varied, but all included full gravity potential of both primary and secondary, the solar tide, and solar radiation pressure (accounting for shadowing). We present results for the proportions of ejecta reaching ultimate fates of escape, return impact on the secondary, and transfer impact onto the primary. We also present the time history of reaching those outcomes, i.e., ejecta clearing timescales, and the size-frequency distribution of remaining ejecta at given post-impact durations. We find large numbers of particles remain in the system for several

  16. Assessment of the Impact of Zoledronic Acid on Ovariectomized Osteoporosis Model Using Micro-CT Scanning

    PubMed Central

    Shuai, Bo; Shen, Lin; Yang, Yanping; Ma, Chen; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Xiaojuan

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective Prompted by preliminary findings, this study was conducted to investigate the impact of zoledronic acid on the cancellous bone microstructure and its effect on the level of β-catenin in a mouse model of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Methods and Materials 96 8-week-old specific-pathogen-free C57BL/6 mice were randomly divided into 4 groups (24 per group): a sham group, an ovariectomized osteoporosis model group, an estradiol-treated group, and a zoledronic acid-treated group. Five months after surgery, the third lumbar vertebra and left femur of the animals were dissected and scanned using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) to acquire three-dimensional imagery of their cancellous bone microstructure. The impact of ovariectomy, the effect of estradiol, and the effect of zoledronic acid intervention on cancellous bone microstructure, as well as on the expression of β-catenin, were evaluated. Results The estradiol-treated and the zoledronic acid-treated group exhibited a significant increase in the bone volume fraction, trabecular number, trabecular thickness, bone surface to bone volume ratio (BS/BV), and β-catenin expression, when compared with those of the control group (P <0.01). In contrast, the structure model index, trabecular separation, and BS/BV were significantly lower compared with those of the model group (P <0.01). No differences were observed in the above parameters between animals of the zoledronic acid-treated and the estradiol-treated group. Conclusion These results suggest that increased β-catenin expression may be the mechanism underlying zoledronic acid-related improvement in the cancellous bone microstructure in ovariectomized mice. Our findings provide a scientific rationale for using zoledronic acid as a therapeutic intervention to prevent bone loss in post-menopausal women. PMID:26148020

  17. Assessment of impacts of land use changes on surface water using L-THIA model (case study: Zayandehrud river basin).

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, M; Solgi, E; Salmanmahiny, A

    2016-12-01

    Land use changes in a basin are the most important factors affecting its hydrology and water quality. A hydrological model is an effective tool in assessing the effects of land use change on surface water. In this study, the effects of land use changes in the Zayandehrud basin are estimated using long-term hydrologic impact assessment model. This model is applicable using long-term data on climate, soil hydrological groups, and land use maps. The study covered three land uses across 18 years (from 1997 to 2015), and we used data on 30 years of precipitation (from 1985 to 2015) in the model. The results of modeling revealed that the average runoff volume increased from around 5,765,034 m(3) in 1997 to 8,894,525 m(3) in 2015. The results also showed an increase in runoff depth. Land use changes over the study period showed an increase of residential areas, bare land, and agricultural lands and a decrease of pasture and forests. The results can be used to make decisions and monitor changes in land use to control the depth and volume of runoff. Using output maps helps in delimitation of the areas that have high runoff average and in implementation of the management plans for controlling the amount of runoff in these areas. Appropriate land use design can decrease impacts of land use changes including hydrologic effects.

  18. Coupling hydrological and impact assessment models to explore nutrient cycling in freshwater systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwman, Lex; van Beek, Rens; Beusen, Arthur; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    The IMAGE-Global Nutrient Model (GNM) is a new globally distributed, spatially explicit model in which the hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB is coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE to simulate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery, and then with a spiraling ecological approach to simulating instream biogeochemistry. Routing the water with dissolved and suspended N and P from upstream grid cells occurs simultaneous with N and P delivery to water bodies within grid cells from diffuse and point sources (wastewater). IMAGE-GNM describes the following diffuse sources associated with the water flow: surface runoff, shallow and deep groundwater, riparian zones. Depending on the landscape features, all these flows may be present within one grid cell. Furthermore, diffuse N and P inputs occur through allochtonous organic matter inputs via litterfall in (temporarily) inundated river floodplains, and atmospheric deposition. In the spiraling concept, the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity determine N and P retention in water bodies. Validation of model results with observations yields acceptable agreement given the global scale of the uncalibrated model. Sensitivity analysis shows shifts in the importance of the different sources, with decreasing importance of natural sources and increasing influence of wastewater and agriculture. IMAGE-GNM can be employed to study the interaction between society and the environment over prolonged time periods. Here we show results for the full 20th century.

  19. Assessment Of The Impact Of ESA CCI Land Cover Information For Global Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Loew, A.; Hangemann, S.; Defourny, P.; Brockmann, C.; Bontemps, S.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing the issues of climate change, the European Space Agency has recently initiated the Global Monitoring of an Essential Climate Variables program (ESA Climate Change Initiative). The main objective is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA has established over the last thirty years. Due to well organized data access and transparency for the data quality, as well as long-term scientific and technical support, the provided datasets have become very attractive for the use in Earth System Modeling. The Max Plank Institute for Meteorology is contributing to the ESA CCI via the Climate Modeler User Group (CMUG) activities and is responsible for providing a modeler perspective on the Land Cover and Fire Essential Climate Variables. The new ESA land cover ECV has recently released a new global 300-m land cover dataset. This dataset is supported by an interactive tool which allows flexible horizontal re-scaling and conversion from currently accepted satellite specific land classes to the model- specific Plant Functional Types (PFT) categorization. Such a dataset is an ideal starting point for the generation of the land cover information for the initialization of model cover fractions. In this presentation, we show how the usage of this new dataset affects the model performance, comparing it to the standard model set-up, in terms of energy and water fluxes. To do so, we performed a number of offline land-system simulations with original standard JSBACH land cover information and with the new ESA CCI land cover product. We have analyzed the impact of land cover on a simulated surface albedo, temperature and energy fluxes as well as on the biomass load and fire carbon emissions.

  20. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  1. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

    2016-09-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  2. Particulate-phase mercury emissions from biomass burning and impact on resulting deposition: a modelling assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simone, Francesco; Artaxo, Paulo; Bencardino, Mariantonia; Cinnirella, Sergio; Carbone, Francesco; D'Amore, Francesco; Dommergue, Aurélien; Feng, Xin Bin; Gencarelli, Christian N.; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Landis, Matthew S.; Sprovieri, Francesca; Suzuki, Noriuki; Wängberg, Ingvar; Pirrone, Nicola

    2017-02-01

    Mercury (Hg) emissions from biomass burning (BB) are an important source of atmospheric Hg and a major factor driving the interannual variation of Hg concentrations in the troposphere. The greatest fraction of Hg from BB is released in the form of elemental Hg (Hg0(g)). However, little is known about the fraction of Hg bound to particulate matter (HgP) released from BB, and the factors controlling this fraction are also uncertain. In light of the aims of the Minamata Convention to reduce intentional Hg use and emissions from anthropogenic activities, the relative importance of Hg emissions from BB will have an increasing impact on Hg deposition fluxes. Hg speciation is one of the most important factors determining the redistribution of Hg in the atmosphere and the geographical distribution of Hg deposition. Using the latest version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4.1s) and the global Hg chemistry transport model, ECHMERIT, the impact of Hg speciation in BB emissions, and the factors which influence speciation, on Hg deposition have been investigated for the year 2013. The role of other uncertainties related to physical and chemical atmospheric processes involving Hg and the influence of model parametrisations were also investigated, since their interactions with Hg speciation are complex. The comparison with atmospheric HgP concentrations observed at two remote sites, Amsterdam Island (AMD) and Manaus (MAN), in the Amazon showed a significant improvement when considering a fraction of HgP from BB. The set of sensitivity runs also showed how the quantity and geographical distribution of HgP emitted from BB has a limited impact on a global scale, although the inclusion of increasing fractions HgP does limit Hg0(g) availability to the global atmospheric pool. This reduces the fraction of Hg from BB which deposits to the world's oceans from 71 to 62 %. The impact locally is, however, significant on northern boreal and tropical forests, where fires are

  3. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America.

    PubMed

    Case, Michael J; Lawler, Joshua J

    2016-11-17

    Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.

  4. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A; Lima, Albertina P; Machado, Ricardo B; Magnusson, William E

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

  5. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A.; Lima, Albertina P.; Machado, Ricardo B.; Magnusson, William E.

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion. PMID:26784891

  6. Impacts of urbanization on summer climate in China: An assessment with coupled land-atmospheric modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Qian; Yu, Deyong; Georgescu, Matei; Wu, Jianguo

    2016-09-01

    China has experienced unprecedented urbanization since the 1980s, resulting in substantial climatic effects from local cities to broad regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model dynamically coupled to an urban canopy model, we quantified the summertime climate effects of urban expansion in China's most rapidly urbanizing regions: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD). High-resolution landscape data of each urban agglomeration for 1988, 2000, and 2010 were used for simulations. Our results indicated summertime urban warming of 0.85°C for BTH, 0.78°C for YRD, and 0.57°C for PRD, which was substantially greater than previous estimates. Peak summer warming for BTH, YRD, and PRD was 1.5°C, 1°C, and 0.8°C, respectively. In contrast, the loss of moisture was greatest in PRD, with maximum reduction in 2 m water vapor mixing ratio close to 1 g/kg, followed by YRD and BTH with local peak humidity deficits reaching 0.8 g/kg and 0.6 g/kg, respectively. Our results were in better agreement with observations than prior studies because of the usage of high-resolution landscape data and the inclusion of key land-atmospheric interactions. Our study also demonstrated that the warming impacts of polycentric urban forms were less intense but more extensive in space, whereas large concentrated urban aggregations produced much stronger but localized warming effects. These findings provide critical knowledge that improves our understanding of urban-atmospheric interactions, with important implications for urban landscape management and planning to alleviate the negative impacts of urban heat islands.

  7. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  8. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report. Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S.; Kramer White, Julie; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2005-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  9. Impact Assessment of Repeated Exposure of Organotypic 3D Bronchial and Nasal Tissue Culture Models to Whole Cigarette Smoke

    PubMed Central

    Kuehn, Diana; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Dulize, Remi; Baumer, Karine; Iskandar, Anita; Boue, Stephanie; Martin, Florian; Kostadinova, Radina; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V.; Frentzel, Stefan; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has a major impact on lung biology and may result in the development of lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or lung cancer. To understand the underlying mechanisms of disease development, it would be important to examine the impact of CS exposure directly on lung tissues. However, this approach is difficult to implement in epidemiological studies because lung tissue sampling is complex and invasive. Alternatively, tissue culture models can facilitate the assessment of exposure impacts on the lung tissue. Submerged 2D cell cultures, such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell cultures, have traditionally been used for this purpose. However, they cannot be exposed directly to smoke in a similar manner to the in vivo exposure situation. Recently developed 3D tissue culture models better reflect the in vivo situation because they can be cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Their basal sides are immersed in the culture medium; whereas, their apical sides are exposed to air. Moreover, organotypic tissue cultures that contain different type of cells, better represent the physiology of the tissue in vivo. In this work, the utilization of an in vitro exposure system to expose human organotypic bronchial and nasal tissue models to mainstream CS is demonstrated. Ciliary beating frequency and the activity of cytochrome P450s (CYP) 1A1/1B1 were measured to assess functional impacts of CS on the tissues. Furthermore, to examine CS-induced alterations at the molecular level, gene expression profiles were generated from the tissues following exposure. A slight increase in CYP1A1/1B1 activity was observed in CS-exposed tissues compared with air-exposed tissues. A network-and transcriptomics-based systems biology approach was sufficiently robust to demonstrate CS-induced alterations of xenobiotic metabolism that were similar to those observed in the bronchial and nasal epithelial cells obtained from smokers. PMID:25741927

  10. Characterizing Emissions from Prescribed Fires and Assessing Impacts to Air Quality in the Lake Tahoe Basin Using Dispersion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malamakal, Tom M.

    A PM2.5 monitoring network was established around Lake Tahoe during fall 2011, which, in conjunction with measurements at prescribed burns and smoke dispersion modeling based on the Fire Emission Production Simulator and the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (FEPS-HYSPLIT) Model, served to evaluate the prescribed burning impacts on air quality. Emissions from pile and understory prescribed burns were characterized using a mobile air monitoring system. In field PM2.5 emission factors showed ranges consistent with laboratory combustion of wet and dry fuels. Measurements in the smoke plume showed progression from flaming to smoldering phase consistent with FEPS and PM2.5 emission factors generally increased with decreasing combustion efficiency. Model predicted smoke contributions are consistent with elevated ambient PM2.5 concentrations in three case studies, and high meteorological model resolution (2km x 2 km) seems to produce accurate smoke arriving times. In other cases, the model performance is difficult to evaluate due to low predicted smoke contributions relative to the typical ambient PM2.5 level. Synergistic assessment of modeling and measurement can be used to determine basin air quality impact. The findings from this study will help land management agencies better understand the implications of managing fire at the wildland-urban interface.

  11. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    SciTech Connect

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  12. Scoping for Social Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Branch, Kristi M.; Ross, Helen

    2000-12-01

    Social assessment combines research, analytic, and participatory processes to identify, describe, and interpret changes in the ?human environment? that result from any of a wide variety of change agents -- projects, policies, or planning activities. Scoping for social impact assessment draws upon these same three processes - research, analysis, and participation - to: - Disclose information about the proposed action, preliminary estimates of impacts, and plans for the decision making and assessment effort - Initiate dialogue with the interested and potentially affected publics and decision makers - Establish the focus and level of detail of the assessment, identify particular issues that need to be addressed, and clarify how potentially affected publics will be consulted and involved. This chapter describes the function and key objectives of the scoping process, explains the assessment framework and the conventions and issues that set the context for the scoping process, provides some suggestions about how to plan and conduct scoping for a social assessment, and discusses some of the key issues that must be addressed in designing an effective scoping process for social impact assessment. Our approach recognises that social scientists may be involved in assessment tasks that involve other disciplinary areas. This may be an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA, the analysis of the impacts of policies or plans, or the combination of impact assessment with planning), or a planning process.

  13. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  14. Assessing the impacts of reservoir operation to floodplain inundation by combining hydrological, reservoir management, and hydrodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mateo, Cherry May; Hanasaki, Naota; Komori, Daisuke; Tanaka, Kenji; Kiguchi, Masashi; Champathong, Adisorn; Sukhapunnaphan, Thada; Yamazaki, Dai; Oki, Taikan

    2014-09-01

    A catastrophic flood event which caused massive economic losses occurred in Thailand, in 2011. Several studies have already been conducted to analyze the Thai floods, but none of them have assessed the impacts of reservoir operation on flood inundation. This study addresses this gap by combining physically based hydrological models to explicitly simulate the impacts of reservoir operation on flooding in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. H08, an integrated water resources model with a reservoir operation module, was combined with CaMa-Flood, a river routing model with representation of flood dynamics. The combined H08-CaMa model was applied to simulate and assess the historical and alternative reservoir operation rules in the two largest reservoirs in the basin. The combined H08-CaMa model effectively simulated the 2011 flood: regulated flows at a major gauging station have high daily NSE-coefficient of 92% as compared with observed discharge; spatiotemporal extent of simulated flood inundation match well with those of satellite observations. Simulation results show that through the operation of reservoirs in 2011, flood volume was reduced by 8.6 billion m3 and both depth and area of flooding were reduced by 40% on the average. Nonetheless, simple modifications in reservoir operation proved to further reduce the flood volume by 2.4 million m3 and the depth and area of flooding by 20% on the average. By modeling reservoir operation with a hydrodynamic model, a more realistic simulation of the 2011 Thai flood was made possible, and the potential of reducing flood inundation through improved reservoir management was quantified.

  15. Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

  16. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  17. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    SciTech Connect

    Gontier, Mikael . E-mail: gontier@kth.se

    2007-07-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects.

  18. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  19. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  20. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  1. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.; Mostovoy, G.

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

  2. Towards a climate impact assessment of the Tarim River, NW China: integrated hydrological modelling using SWIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wortmann, Michel

    2014-05-01

    The Tarim River is the principle water source of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, NW China and the country's largest endorheic river, terminating in the Taklamakan desert. The vast majority of discharge is generated in the glaciated mountain ranges to the north (Tian Shan), south (Kunlun Shan/Tibetan Plateau) and west (Pamir Mountains) of the Taklamakan desert. The main water user is the intensive irrigation agriculture for mostly cotton and fruit production in linear river oases of the middle and lower reaches as well as a population of 10 Mil. people. Over the past 40 years, an increase in river discharge was reported, assumed to be caused by enhanced glacier melt due to a warming climate. Rapid population growth and economic development have led to a significant expansion of area under irrigation, resulting in water shortages for downstream users and the floodplain vegetation. Water resource planning and management of the Tarim require integrated assessment tools to examine changes under future climate change, land use and irrigation scenarios. The development of such tools, however, is challenged by sparse climate and discharge data as well as available data on water abstractions and diversions. The semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was implemented for the headwater and middle reaches that generate over 90% of discharge, including the Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant rivers. It includes the representation of snow and glacier melt as well as irrigation abstractions. Once calibrated and validated to river discharge, the model is used to analyse future climate scenarios provided by one physically-based and one statistical regional climate model (RCM). Preliminary results of the model calibration and validation indicate that SWIM is able simulate river discharge adequately, despite poor data conditions. Snow and glacier melt account for the largest share in river discharge. The modelling results will devise

  3. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-03-22

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available.

  4. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-07

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany.

  5. Application of the AERMOD modeling system for environmental impact assessment of NO2 emissions from a cement complex.

    PubMed

    Seangkiatiyuth, Kanyanee; Surapipith, Vanisa; Tantrakarnapa, Kraichat; Lothongkum, Anchaleeporn W

    2011-01-01

    We applied the model of American Meteorological Society-Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) as a tool for the analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from a cement complex as a part of the environmental impact assessment. The dispersion of NO2 from four cement plants within the selected cement complex were investigated both by measurement and AERMOD simulation in dry and wet seasons. Simulated values of NO2 emissions were compared with those obtained during a 7-day continuous measurement campaign at 12 receptors. It was predicted that NO2 concentration peaks were found more within 1 to 5 km, where the measurement and simulation were in good agreement, than at the receptors 5 km further away from the reference point. The Quantile-Quantile plots of NO2 concentrations in dry season were mostly fitted to the middle line compared to those in wet season. This can be attributed to high NO2 wet deposition. The results show that for both the measurement and the simulation using the AERMOD, NO2 concentrations do not exceed the NO2 concentration limit set by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of Thailand. This indicates that NO2 emissions from the cement complex have no significant impact on nearby communities. It can be concluded that the AERMOD can provide useful information to identify high pollution impact areas for the EIA guidelines.

  6. A simplified model for assessing the impact to groundwater of swine farms at regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Viterbo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Swine manure can be an excellent source of nutrients for crop production. Several swine farms are present in the territory of Regione Umbria and more than 200.000 of swine heads are present yearly in the whole territory while some municipalities host more than 30.000 heads over a relatively limited land. Municipality with elevated number of swine heads has registered particularly higher Nitrate concentration in groundwater that requires a management plan and intervention in order to determine the maximum allowed N loads in the specific region. Use of manure and fertilizers in agricultural field produce diffuse nitrogen (N) losses that are a major cause of excessive nitrate concentrations in ground and surface waters and have been of concern since decades. Excessive nitrate concentrations in groundwater can have toxic effects when used as drinking water and cause eutrophication in surface waters. For management and environmental planning purposes, it is necessary to assess the magnitude of diffuse N losses from agricultural fields and how they are influenced by factors such as management practices, type of fertilizers -organic or inorganic - climate and soil etc. There are several methods for assessing N leaching, they span from methods based on field test to complex models that require many input data. We use a simple index method that accounts for the type of fertilizer used - inorganic, swine or cattle manure- and hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. Hydrological conditions such as infiltration rates are estimated by a fully distributed hydrological model. Data on inorganic and organic fertilization are estimated at municipal level by using the nutrient crops needs and the statistics of swine and cattle heads within the municipality. The index method has been calibrated by using groundwater concentration as a proxy of N losses from agriculture. A time series of three years of data has been analyzed. The application of the simple index method allowed to

  7. Assessing the Impact of the 4MAT Teaching Model across Multiple Disciplines in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nicoll-Senft, Joan M.; Seider, Susan N.

    2010-01-01

    Much attention has focused on learning styles and their impact on the teaching and learning process; however, little has been done to systematically incorporate learning style theory into actual teaching, nor to systematically examine its potential impact on student learning in higher education. As part of a Scholarship of Teaching and Learning…

  8. Hydrological and nitrogen distributed catchment modeling to assess the impact of future climate change at Trichonis Lake, western Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitriou, Elias; Moussoulis, Elias

    2010-03-01

    According to regional climatic models, climate change may affect Mediterranean lakes significantly in terms of water availability and quality. Trichonis Lake catchment covers a semi-mountainous area of 403 km2 including the largest Greek lake by volume (2.6 × 109 m3), located in western Greece. The impact of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the lake, in terms of lake water level and nutrient concentrations, has been assessed. Water balance estimates and geographical information system tools were then used to set up a physically based, spatially distributed model. The calibrated model was simulated for two future scenarios specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (more optimistic), which involved temperature/evaporation/evapotranspiration increase and small precipitation decrease. The model was calibrated efficiently for the 1990-1992 period. The two basic climatic scenarios illustrated that the responses of the lake water levels will show a decrease of 24.2 and 12 cm, respectively, and an increase of total nitrogen concentrations by 3.4 and 10%, in relation to the early 1990s values. These important findings suggest that mitigation and optimum management plans should be developed to eliminate the aforementioned climate change impacts and further research should follow.

  9. Atmospheric dispersion modeling with AERMOD for comparative impact assessment of different pollutant emission sources in an Alpine context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antonacci, Gianluca; Giovannini, Lorenzo; Tomasi, Elena; Zardi, Dino

    2015-04-01

    High-resolution simulations are performed with the AERMOD model to analyze the impact on air quality of different pollutant emission sources in the area surrounding the town of Vipiteno in the northeastern Italian Alps. In this area the environmental burden of pollutant emissions is particularly high because of both its complex terrain and the presence of specific pollutant sources. In this study the effects of the main sources are analyzed and compared: the A22 motorway, which leads to the Brenner pass, the town of Vipiteno, mainly characterized by intensive use of biomass for house heating, three major plants with high emission rates, and a parking lot located near the motorway, offering park spaces for up to 260 trucks and 50 cars. To assess the impact of these pollution sources the AERMOD model is run with a spatial resolution of 25 m and with meteorological input data obtained from different datasets, such as annual series of standard meteorological variables taken from local weather stations and a set of vertical soundings. During the simulations the sources are modeled in different ways depending on the type of the emissions: the motorway is modeled as a linear source, the village as a diffuse source, the local companies as point sources and the parking lot is modeled as a composition of a diffuse source, representing the idling vehicles inside the park, and of a linear source, representing the access routes to the parking. For each type of source, specific emission factors are chosen, and hourly and seasonal emission patterns are set with particular attention to the analysis of idling vehicle emission factors. The results of the simulations are analyzed in terms of NO2 and PM10 and the impact of each source is discussed.

  10. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  11. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments.

  12. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-02-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  13. The Human Exposure Model (HEM): A Tool to Support Rapid Assessment of Human Health Impacts from Near-Field Consumer Product Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA is developing an open and publically available software program called the Human Exposure Model (HEM) to provide near-field exposure information for Life Cycle Impact Assessments (LCIAs). Historically, LCIAs have often omitted impacts from near-field sources of exposur...

  14. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  15. IMPACT fragmentation model developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorge, Marlon E.; Mains, Deanna L.

    2016-09-01

    The IMPACT fragmentation model has been used by The Aerospace Corporation for more than 25 years to analyze orbital altitude explosions and hypervelocity collisions. The model is semi-empirical, combining mass, energy and momentum conservation laws with empirically derived relationships for fragment characteristics such as number, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and spreading velocity as well as event energy distribution. Model results are used for several types of analysis including assessment of short-term risks to satellites from orbital altitude fragmentations, prediction of the long-term evolution of the orbital debris environment and forensic assessments of breakup events. A new version of IMPACT, version 6, has been completed and incorporates a number of advancements enabled by a multi-year long effort to characterize more than 11,000 debris fragments from more than three dozen historical on-orbit breakup events. These events involved a wide range of causes, energies, and fragmenting objects. Special focus was placed on the explosion model, as the majority of events examined were explosions. Revisions were made to the mass distribution used for explosion events, increasing the number of smaller fragments generated. The algorithm for modeling upper stage large fragment generation was updated. A momentum conserving asymmetric spreading velocity distribution algorithm was implemented to better represent sub-catastrophic events. An approach was developed for modeling sub-catastrophic explosions, those where the majority of the parent object remains intact, based on estimated event energy. Finally, significant modifications were made to the area-to-mass ratio distribution to incorporate the tendencies of different materials to fragment into different shapes. This ability enabled better matches between the observed area-to-mass ratios and those generated by the model. It also opened up additional possibilities for post-event analysis of breakups. The paper will discuss

  16. Modeling and measuring snow for assessing climate change impacts in Glacier National Park, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Selkowitz, David J.; Reardon, Blase; Holzer, Karen; Mckeon, Lisa L.

    2002-01-01

    A 12-year program of global change research at Glacier National Park by the U.S. Geological Survey and numerous collaborators has made progress in quantifying the role of snow as a driver of mountain ecosystem processes. Spatially extensive snow surveys during the annual accumulation/ablation cycle covered two mountain watersheds and approximately 1,000 km2 . Over 7,000 snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements have been made through spring 2002. These augment two SNOTEL sites, 9 NRCS snow courses, and approximately 150 snow pit analyses. Snow data were used to establish spatially-explicit interannual variability in snowpack SWE. East of the Continental Divide, snowpack SWE was lower but also less variable than west of the Divide. Analysis of snowpacks suggest downward trends in SWE, a reduction in snow cover duration, and earlier melt-out dates during the past 52 years. Concurrently, high elevation forests and treelines have responded with increased growth. However, the 80 year record of snow from 3 NRCS snow courses reflects a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, resulting in 20-30 year phases of greater or lesser mean SWE. Coupled with the fine-resolution spatial snow data from the two watersheds, the ecological consequences of changes in snowpack can be empirically assessed at a habitat patch scale. This will be required because snow distribution models have had varied success in simulating snowpack accumulation/ablation dynamics in these mountain watersheds, ranging from R2=0.38 for individual south-facing forested snow survey routes to R2=0.95 when aggregated to the watershed scale. Key ecological responses to snowpack changes occur below the watershed scale, such as snow-mediated expansion of forest into subalpine meadows, making continued spatially-explicit snow surveys a necessity. 

  17. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  18. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  19. Assessing Cross-Media Impacts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reiquam, Howard; And Others

    1975-01-01

    Using 1000 MW coal-fired central power stations as an example, the impacts upon other media (land, air, water) are analyzed when controls are imposed on one medium. The development of a methodology for assessing the cross-media impact of specific control technologies or strategies is illustrated. (Author/BT)

  20. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: An Assessment from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Digital Elevation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Frawley, J. J.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global geometric characteristics of topographically fresh impact craters have been assessed, for the first time, from gridded MOLA topography. Global trends of properties such as depth/diameter differ from previous estimates. Regional differences are observed.

  1. Assessment in the Cooperative Classroom: Using an Action Research Enhanced Version of the Train the Trainer In-service Model To Impact Teacher Attitudes and Practices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rolheiser, Carol; Ross, John A.; Hogaboam-Gray, Anne

    This research investigated the impact of combining two approaches to inservice teacher education (action research and train the trainer) on teacher attitudes and practices. The inservice developed assessment approaches aligned with cooperative learning instructional approaches. Teachers were introduced to a model of collaborative assessment aimed…

  2. A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

  3. Modelling the catchment-scale environmental impacts of wastewater treatment in an urban sewage system for CO₂ emission assessment.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Oki, Taikan

    2010-01-01

    Water shortages and water pollution are a global problem. Increases in population can have further acute effects on water cycles and on the availability of water resources. Thus, wastewater management plays an important role in mitigating negative impacts on natural ecosystems and human environments and is an important area of research. In this study, we modelled catchment-scale hydrology, including water balances, rainfall, contamination, and urban wastewater treatment. The entire water resource system of a basin, including a forest catchment and an urban city area, was evaluated synthetically from a spatial distribution perspective with respect to water quantity and quality; the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) technique was applied to optimize wastewater treatment management with the aim of improving water quality and reducing CO₂ emissions. A numerical model was developed to predict the water cycle and contamination in the catchment and city; the effect of a wastewater treatment system on the urban region was evaluated; pollution loads were evaluated quantitatively; and the effects of excluding rainwater from the treatment system during flooding and of urban rainwater control on water quality were examined. Analysis indicated that controlling the amount of rainwater inflow to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in an urban area with a combined sewer system has a large impact on reducing CO₂ emissions because of the load reduction on the urban sewage system.

  4. On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

    2016-04-01

    When aiming higher resolution in dynamical downscaling, which is common trend in CORDEX activities, the effects of land use and land use changes are playing increasing role. This is especially true for the urban areas, which in high resolution can occupy significant part of a single gridbox, if not being even bigger in case of big cities or megacities. Moreover, the role of cities will increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in cities. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been coupled with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), which can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Additionally, the version of land-surface scheme using CLM is tested and effect of the urban environment, which is included in the CLM scheme, will be assessed. Both versions will be compared and validated using EOBS data.

  5. Deep Impact: How a Job-Embedded Formative Assessment Professional Development Model Affected Teacher Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Thomas A.; Houchens, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    This study supports the work of Black and Wiliam (1998), who demonstrated that when teachers effectively utilize formative assessment strategies, student learning increases significantly. However, the researchers also found a "poverty of practice" among teachers, in that few fully understood how to implement classroom formative…

  6. Impacts of cool cities on air quality: A preliminary modeling assessment for Nashville TN, Dallas TX and Atlanta GA

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    1998-06-15

    Previous atmospheric modeling efforts that concentrated on the Los Angeles Basin suggested beneficial and significant air quality impacts from cool cities strategies. This paper discusses an extension of similar modeling efforts to three regions, Atlanta GA, Dallas - Ft. Worth TX, and Nashville TN, that experience smog and air quality problems. According to the older ozone air quality standard (120 ppb), these regions were classified as serious, moderate, and marginal, respectively, but may be out of compliance with respect to the newer, 80-ppb/8-hours standard. Results from this exploratory modeling work suggest a range of possible impacts on meteorological and air quality conditions. For example, peak ozone concentrations during each region's respective episode could be decreased by 1-6 ppb (conservative and optimistic scenarios, respectively) in Nashville, 5-15 ppb in Dallas - Fort Worth, and 5-12 ppb in Atlanta following implementation of cool cities. The reductions are generally smaller than those obtained from simulating the Los Angeles Basin but are still significant. In all regions, the simulations suggest, the net, domain-wide effects of cool cities are reductions in ozone mass and improvements in air quality. In Atlanta, Nashville, and Dallas, urban areas benefiting from reduced smog reach up to 8460, 7350, and 12870 km{sup 2} in area, respectively. Results presented in this paper should be taken as exploratory and preliminary. These will most likely change during a more comprehensive modeling study to be started soon with the support of the US Environmental Protection Agency. The main purpose of the present project was to obtain the initial data (emission inventories) for these regions, simulate meteorological conditions, and perform preliminary sensitivity analysis. In the future, additional regions will be simulated to assess the potential of cool cities in improving urban air quality.

  7. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Using portfolios in the assessment of learning and competence: the impact of four models.

    PubMed

    Endacott, Ruth; Gray, Morag A; Jasper, Melanie A; McMullan, Mirjam; Miller, Carolyn; Scholes, Julie; Webb, Christine

    2004-12-01

    This paper discusses the diversity of portfolio use highlighted in a study funded by the English National Board for Nursing, Midwifery and Health Visiting exploring the effectiveness of portfolios in assessing learning and competence (). Data collection was undertaken in two stages: through a national telephone survey of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) delivering nursing programmes (stage 1); and through four in-depth case studies of portfolios use (stage 2). Data collection for stage two was undertaken through field work in four HEIs purporting to use portfolios as an assessment strategy, and their associated clinical placement settings. Four approaches to the structure and use of portfolios were evident from the stage 2 case study data; these were characterised as: the shopping trolley; toast rack; spinal column and cake mix. The case study data also highlighted the evolutionary nature of portfolio development and a range of additional factors influencing the effectiveness of their use, including language of assessment, degree of guidance and expectations of clinical and academic staff.

  9. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  10. A Tool for Low Noise Procedures Design and Community Noise Impact Assessment: The Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conner, David A.; Page, Juliet A.

    2002-01-01

    To improve aircraft noise impact modeling capabilities and to provide a tool to aid in the development of low noise terminal area operations for rotorcraft and tiltrotors, the Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM) was developed by the NASA Langley Research Center and Wyle Laboratories. RNM is a simulation program that predicts how sound will propagate through the atmosphere and accumulate at receiver locations located on flat ground or varying terrain, for single and multiple vehicle flight operations. At the core of RNM are the vehicle noise sources, input as sound hemispheres. As the vehicle "flies" along its prescribed flight trajectory, the source sound propagation is simulated and accumulated at the receiver locations (single points of interest or multiple grid points) in a systematic time-based manner. These sound signals at the receiver locations may then be analyzed to obtain single event footprints, integrated noise contours, time histories, or numerous other features. RNM may also be used to generate spectral time history data over a ground mesh for the creation of single event sound animation videos. Acoustic properties of the noise source(s) are defined in terms of sound hemispheres that may be obtained from theoretical predictions, wind tunnel experimental results, flight test measurements, or a combination of the three. The sound hemispheres may contain broadband data (source levels as a function of one-third octave band) and pure-tone data (in the form of specific frequency sound pressure levels and phase). A PC executable version of RNM is publicly available and has been adopted by a number of organizations for Environmental Impact Assessment studies of rotorcraft noise. This paper provides a review of the required input data, the theoretical framework of RNM's propagation model and the output results. Code validation results are provided from a NATO helicopter noise flight test as well as a tiltrotor flight test program that used the RNM as a tool to aid in

  11. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    PubMed

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

  12. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  13. Assessing the impact of ENSO on drought in the U.S. Southwest with NCEP climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun

    2015-07-01

    The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on U.S. Southwest precipitation and drought is assessed based on observational data and coupled global climate model simulations. The co-variability between 67-year (1948-2014) Southwest winter precipitation and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is analyzed using the singular value decomposition method. Results indicate strong associations between Southwest drought and La Niña during 1948-1977 and between Southwest pluvial and El Niño during 1978-1999. The relationship between Southwest precipitation and tropical Pacific SST is relatively weak after 1999. A comparison between two 480-year model simulations with and without ENSO variability suggests that ENSO can alter the characteristics of precipitation, and thus droughts over the Southwest in terms of frequency and intensity. In the presence of ENSO, the variability of Southwest precipitation is enhanced, and further, shifts toward lower frequencies. In addition, the chance for the ENSO-related precipitation pattern to persist over 3-4 years in the Southwest is higher in the simulation with ENSO than that without ENSO. The modeling study also demonstrates a sensitivity of the Southwest precipitation-related teleconnection to both the phase and intensity of ENSO, which helps understand the observed decadal changes in the strength of the link between Southwest precipitation and ENSO.

  14. Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Sean M; Harrison, Sandy P; Armbruster, W Scott; Bartlein, Patrick J; Beale, Colin M; Edwards, Mary E; Kattge, Jens; Midgley, Guy; Morin, Xavier; Prentice, I Colin

    2011-05-01

    Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

  15. Integrated snow and hydrology modeling for climate change impact assessment in Oregon Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safeeq, M.; Grant, G.; Lewis, S.; Nolin, A. W.; Hempel, L. A.; Cooper, M.; Tague, C.

    2014-12-01

    In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), increasing temperatures are expected to alter the hydrologic regimes of streams by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and forcing earlier snowmelt. How are such changes likely to affect peak flows across the region? Shifts in peak flows have obvious implications for changing flood risk, but are also likely to affect channel morphology, sediment transport, aquatic habitat, and water quality, issues with potentially high economic and environmental cost. Our goal, then, is to rigorously evaluate sensitivity to potential peak flow changes across the PNW. We address this by developing a detailed representation of snowpack and streamflow evolution under varying climate scenarios using a cascade-modeling approach. We have identified paired watersheds located on the east (Metolius River) and west (McKenzie River) sides of the Cascades, representing dry and wet climatic regimes, respectively. The tributaries of these two rivers are comprised of contrasting hydrologic regimes: surface-runoff dominated western cascades and deep-groundwater dominated high-cascades systems. We use a detailed hydro-ecological model (RHESSys) in conjunction with a spatially distributed snowpack evolution model (SnowModel) to characterize the peak flow behavior under present and future climate. We first calibrated and validated the SnowModel using observed temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent, and manual snow survey data sets. We then employed a multi-objective calibration strategy for RHESSys using the simulated snow accumulation and melt from SnowModel and observed streamflow. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency between observed and simulated streamflow varies between 0.5 in groundwater and 0.71 in surface-runoff dominated systems. The initial results indicate enhanced peak flow under future climate across all basins, but the magnitude of increase varies by the level of snowpack and deep-groundwater contribution in the watershed. Our continuing effort

  16. IMPACT OF AN UPDATED CARBON BOND MECHANISM ON PREDICTIONS FROM THE CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    An updated and expanded Carbon Bond mechanism (CB05) has been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to more accurately simulate wintertime, pristine, and high altitude situations. The CB05 mechanism has nearly twice the number of reactions compare...

  17. A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, John; Greer, Chris; O'Connor, Ben L.; Tompson, Andrew F.B.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support the utility-scale solar energy development at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) solar energy program.

  18. A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, John; Carr, Adrianne E.; Greer, Chris; Bowen, Esther E.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support utility-scale solar energy development at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone (SEZ), as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program.

  19. An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulholland, David P.; Spiga, Aymeric; Listowski, Constantino; Read, Peter L.

    2015-05-01

    Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former's climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission 'hotspots': areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently

  20. Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

    PubMed

    Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

    2011-04-01

    In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a

  1. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  2. Assessing the Impact of Rotation Policy - Individual Sailor Assignment Model (ISAM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-12

    for others OPTEMPO Sea/Shore ratio ITEMPO Time on watch Time avail to train Others QOL Off duty hrs Holidays Leave Others CAREER Time to complete...crews for 3 ships) • Others • Alternatives to be compared on the basis of metrics – OPTEMPO – QOL – Career progression 4 Methodology Modeling approach...Over-manning sailor initially accumulated college credit faster than baseline sailor – result: 20 hrs of credit 4 months earlier. • Baseline sailor

  3. Hydrological Model Parameter (In)stability - Implications for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vormoor, K.; Lawrence, D.; Heistermann, M.; Bronstert, A.

    2014-12-01

    Using a multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consisting of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two statistical downscaling methods, and (iii) the HBV hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets, we simulated daily discharge for a control (1961-1990) and future period (2071-2099) to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGPs) in six catchments with mixed snowmelt-rainfall regimes in Norway. For the catchments in northern and south-eastern Norway, we found more frequent autumn and winter events (partly also of higher magnitude) leading to possible shifts in the current flood regime from spring and early summer to autumn and winter. The possible shifts in flood regimes correspond to an increasing importance of rainfall as a FGP in all catchments considered, while rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP in those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality. The analysis of the relative role of the single ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty show that hydrological model parameter uncertainty is highest in those catchments showing the largest shifts in flood seasonality and FGPs. This points to difficulties in the time-transferability of the calibrated hydrological parameter sets under changing hydrometeorological conditions and highlights the need of alternative calibration approaches. In this study, we detect time periods in the observation data sets of catchments showing changes in observed hydrometeorological conditions and differing phases of predominant flood seasonality. The HBV model is calibrated for the detected time periods using the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) global optimization algorithm, and split sampling tests are applied to study the role of the calibrated hydrological parameter sets under changing conditions. Preliminary results show that the hydrological model parameters are sensitive to the

  4. Health impact assessment in Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Eunjeong; Lee, Youngsoo; Harris, Patrick; Koh, Kwangwook; Kim, Keonyeop

    2011-07-15

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  5. Assessing Climatic Impacts due to Land Use Change over Southeast Asian Maritime Continent base on Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, N.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing urbanization, deforestation, and agriculture, land use change over Southeast Asia has dramatically risen during the last decades. Large areas of peat swamp forests over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent region (10°S~20°N and 90°E~135°E) have been cleared for agricultural purposes. The Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land cover classification data show that changes in land use are dominated by conversion of peat swamp forests to oil palm plantation, open lowland or lowland mosaic categories. Nested grid simulations based on Weather Research Forecasting Version 3.6 modelling system (WRFV3.6) over the central region of the Sarawak coast are used to investigate the climatic impacts of land use change over Maritime Continent. Numerical simulations were conducted for August of 2009 for satellite derived land cover scenarios for years 2000 and 2010. The variations in cloud formation, precipitation, and regional radiative and non-radiative parameters on climate results from land use change have been assessed based on numerical simulation results. Modelling studies demonstrate that land use change such as extensive deforestation processes can produce a negative radiative forcing due to the surface albedo increase and evapotranspiration decrease, while also largely caused reduced rainfall and cloud formation, and enhanced shortwave radiative forcing and temperature over the study area. Land use and land cover changes, similar to the domain in this study, has also occurred over other regions in Southeast Asia including Indonesia and could also impact cloud and precipitation formation in these regions.

  6. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karlson, Mårten Mörtberg, Ulla Balfors, Berit

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  7. Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

    PubMed

    Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-12-15

    Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity.

  8. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  9. Independent component model of the default-mode brain function: Assessing the impact of active thinking.

    PubMed

    Esposito, Fabrizio; Bertolino, Alessandro; Scarabino, Tommaso; Latorre, Valeria; Blasi, Giuseppe; Popolizio, Teresa; Tedeschi, Gioacchino; Cirillo, Sossio; Goebel, Rainer; Di Salle, Francesco

    2006-10-16

    The "default-mode" network is an ensemble of cortical regions, which are typically deactivated during demanding cognitive tasks in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies. Using functional connectivity, this network can be conceptualized and studied as a "stand-alone" function or system. Regardless of the task, independent component analysis (ICA) produces a picture of the "default-mode" function even when the subject is performing a simple sensori-motor task or just resting in the scanner. This has boosted the use of default-mode fMRI for non-invasive research in brain disorders. Here, we studied the effect of cognitive load modulation of fMRI responses on the ICA-based pictures of the default-mode function. In a standard graded working memory study based on the n-back task, we used group-level ICA to explore the variability of the default-mode network related to the engagement in the task, in 10 healthy volunteers. The analysis of the default-mode components highlighted similarities and differences in the layout under three different cognitive loads. We found a load-related general increase of deactivation in the cortical network. Nonetheless, a variable recruitment of the cingulate regions was evident, with greater extension of the anterior and lesser extension of the posterior clusters when switching from lower to higher working memory loads. A co-activation of the hippocampus was only found under no working memory load. As a generalization of our results, the variability of the default-mode pattern may link the default-mode system as a whole to cognition and may more directly support use of the ICA model for evaluating cognitive decline in brain disorders.

  10. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  11. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (videotape)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Originally developed for the US EPA Regions, this presentation is available to the general public via the internet. The presentation focuses on the basics of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) including the ISO 14040 series framework and a quick overview of each of the steps wi...

  12. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    PubMed

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods.

  13. [MINNI, the national integrated modelling system for assessing the impacts of atmospheric pollution and the effectiveness of the emissions abatement strategies].

    PubMed

    Zanini, Gabriele

    2009-01-01

    Selecting the best emissions abatement strategy is very difficult due to the complexity of the processes that determine the impact of atmospheric pollutants and to the connection with climate change issues. Atmospheric pollution models can provide policy makers with a tool for assessing the effectiveness of abatement measures and their associated costs. The MINNI integrated model has been developed to link policy and atmospheric science and to assess the costs of the measures. The results have been carefully verified in order to identify uncertainties and the models are continuously updated to represent the state of the art in atmospheric science. The fine spatial and temporal resolution of the simulations provide a strong basis for assessing impacts on environment and health.

  14. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    PubMed

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture.

  15. Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, Giulio; Leone, Mattia Federico; Del Cogliano, Davide; Sgroi, Angelo

    2013-10-01

    PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II has developed a methodology that aims to estimate, in probabilistic terms, the direct and the indirect economic impacts of a Sub-Plinian I or Strombolian type eruption of Vesuvius. The economic model has been implemented as a complementary tool of the Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a tool developed at PLINIVS Center available to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) decision makers to quantify the potential losses consequent to a possible eruption of Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei. Along the expected time history of the eruptive event all the possible "direct costs" and the "factors" (indirect costs) impacting the economic growth in the event area have been identified. Each cost factor is built up through a specific algorithm that is fed by various providers, in order to run software that will estimate the global amount of economic damage from a volcanic event. The model does not include the economic evaluation of intangibles (e.g. human casualties), while the evaluation of damage to the local cultural heritage (historical buildings, archeological sites, monuments, etc.), is linked to the economic impact on tourism, estimated into indirect costs. The architecture of the model is based on a simulation logic, which allows an evaluation of different economic impact scenarios through input changes, allowing the model to be used as a tool to support the decision making process.

  16. The Impact of Model Misspecification on Parameter Estimation and Item-Fit Assessment in Log-Linear Diagnostic Classification Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kunina-Habenicht, Olga; Rupp, Andre A.; Wilhelm, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Using a complex simulation study we investigated parameter recovery, classification accuracy, and performance of two item-fit statistics for correct and misspecified diagnostic classification models within a log-linear modeling framework. The basic manipulated test design factors included the number of respondents (1,000 vs. 10,000), attributes (3…

  17. Environmental impact assessment in Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, H.G.; De Aguiar, A.M.D. . Dept. de Ecologia e Programa de Pos- graduac ao em Analise Ambiental)

    1993-05-01

    Brazilian environmental impact assessment (EIA) had a relatively late birth and is still far from being operative by international standards. Currently, geological, economic, and social considerations are more highly valued. Nevertheless, EIA has become important in shaping governmental policy. The state of Sao Paulo is responsible for 40% of all EIAs produced in Brazil, and the number of EIAs produced is proportional to stat population density.

  18. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  19. Use and impact of usual intake models on dietary exposure estimate and risk assessment of chemical substances: a practical example for cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites.

    PubMed

    Mancini, Francesca Romana; Sirot, Véronique; Busani, Luca; Volatier, Jean-Luc; Hulin, Marion

    2015-01-01

    To estimate of food and nutrient intakes, 24-h recalls are frequently used in dietary assessment. However intake data collected for a short period are a limited estimator of long-term usual intake. An important limitation of such data is that the within-person variability tends to inflate the intake distribution leading to a biased estimation of extreme percentiles. Statistical models, named usual-intake models, that separate the within-person variability from the between-persons variability, have lately been implemented. The main objectives of this study were to highlight the potential impact that usual-intake models can have on exposure estimate and risk assessment and to point out which are the key aspects to be considered in order to run these models properly and be sure to interpret the output correctly. To achieve the goal we used the consumption data obtained by the French dietary survey INCA2 and the concentration data collected during the French TDS2, using Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software, release 8.0. For the three substances included in this study (cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites), the exposure of the upper percentiles was significantly reduced when using usual-intake models in comparison with the results obtained in the observed individual mean models, even if in terms of risk assessment the impact of using usual-intake models was limited. From the results it appears that the key aspects to consider when using usual-intake models are: (1) the normality of the log-transformed intake distribution, (2) the contribution per single food group to the total exposure, and (3) the independency of food consumption data on multiple days. In conclusion, usual-intake models may have an impact on exposure estimates although, referring to the results, it did not bring any changes in terms of risk assessment, but further investigations are needed.

  20. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  1. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat

  2. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  3. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the South-East part of Romania, using different spatial resolution atmospheric model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mic, Rodica Paula; Corbus, Ciprian; Neculau, Gianina

    2010-05-01

    The simulated flow by WatBal model in actual and forthcoming climate change conditions allows the assessment of climate change impact in water resources of Buzau and Ialomita river basins. The area of Buzau and Ialomita river basins is located of the outside of Curvature of the Carpathian Mountains, into a zone where the altitude varies from 2500m to 50m. In conformity of altitude, the annual precipitation varied from 1400 mm/year, in the mountainous area to 400 mm/year in the plane area and the evapotranspiration between 500 mm/year in the high area to 850 in the plane area. However, due to a very high variability of weather conditions, droughts as well as excessive humidity periods occur in the course of a year. The WATBAL model is an integrated water balance model with monthly time step model and it is combined with the Priesley-Taylor method for calculating the potential evapotranspiration. WatBal model was calibrated by simulation of monthly average flow during 1971-2000 in 4 cross-sections of Buzau catchment and 13 cross-sections of Ialomita river basin. The time series data input in WatBal model, necessary to calibrate the model parameters of this model in Buzau and Ialomita river basins include: rainfall, air temperature and relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed and flow in the analyzed sections. In order to assess the impacts of climate change in water resources in selected area ware used as input data the results of different global and regional climatic models, with different spatial resolution, and a comparison of these hydrological simulations it is made. In a first stage, the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources was based on a total of 27 climate scenarios determined by 3 global circulation models, ECHAM3/OPYC4, HadCM3 and NCAR-PCM each of these models being applied for three time horizons (2025 , 2050, 2100) and three intensities of climate changes phenomena. In the second stage, the analysis of the impact of climate

  4. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  5. Model-based Impact Assessment of an Integrated Water Management Strategy on Ecosystem Services relevant to Food Security in Namibia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luetkemeier, R.; Liehr, S.

    2012-04-01

    North-central Namibia is characterized by seasonal alterations of drought and heavy rainfall, mostly saline groundwater resources and a lack of perennial rivers. Water scarcity poses a great challenge for freshwater supply, harvest and food security against the background of high population growth and climate change. CuveWaters project aims at poverty reduction and livelihood improvement on a long term basis by introducing a multi-resource-mix as part of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach. Herein, creating water buffers by rainwater harvesting (RWH) and subsurface water storage as well as reuse of treated wastewater facilitates micro-scale gardening activities. This link constitutes a major component of a sustainable adaptation strategy by contributing to the conservation and improvement of basic food and freshwater resources in order to reduce drought vulnerability. This paper presents main findings of an impact assessment carried out on the effect of integrated water resources management on ecosystem services (ESS) relevant to food security within the framework of CuveWaters project. North-central Namibia is perceived as a social-ecological system characterized by a strong mutual dependence between natural environment and anthropogenic system. This fundamental reliance on natural resources highlights the key role of ESS in semi-arid environments to sustain human livelihoods. Among other services, food provision was chosen for quantification as one of the most fundamental ESS in north-central Namibia. Different nutritional values were utilized as indicators to adopt a demand-supply approach (Ecosystem Service Profile) to illustrate the ability of the ecosystem to meet people's nutritional requirements. Calculations have been conducted using both Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty introduced by the variability of monthly precipitation and the application of plant specific water production functions. Results show that improving the

  6. Tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the ALDES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.

    2012-04-01

    The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The

  7. Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

    2010-08-01

    In this report we describe the 1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and 2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

  8. A multi-model assessment of the impact of currents, waves and wind in modelling surface drifters and oil spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Dominicis, M.; Bruciaferri, D.; Gerin, R.; Pinardi, N.; Poulain, P. M.; Garreau, P.; Zodiatis, G.; Perivoliotis, L.; Fazioli, L.; Sorgente, R.; Manganiello, C.

    2016-11-01

    Validation of oil spill forecasting systems suffers from a lack of data due to the scarcity of oil slick in situ and satellite observations. Drifters (surface drifting buoys) are often considered as proxy for oil spill to overcome this problem. However, they can have different designs and consequently behave in a different way at sea, making it not straightforward to use them for oil spill model validation purposes and to account for surface currents, waves and wind when modelling them. Stemming from the need to validate the MEDESS4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety) multi-model oil spill prediction system, which allows access to several ocean, wave and meteorological operational model forecasts, an exercise at sea was carried out to collect a consistent dataset of oil slick satellite observations, in situ data and trajectories of different type of drifters. The exercise, called MEDESS4MS Serious Game 1 (SG1), took place in the Elba Island region (Western Mediterranean Sea) during May 2014. Satellite images covering the MEDESS4MS SG1 exercise area were acquired every day and, in the case an oil spill was observed from satellite, vessels of the Italian Coast Guard (ITCG) were sent in situ to confirm the presence of the pollution. During the exercise one oil slick was found in situ and drifters, with different water-following characteristics, were effectively deployed into the oil slick and then monitored in the following days. Although it was not possible to compare the oil slick and drifter trajectories due to a lack of satellite observations of the same oil slick in the following days, the oil slick observations in situ and drifters trajectories were used to evaluate the quality of MEDESS4MS multi-model currents, waves and winds by using the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model. The response of the drifters to surface ocean currents, different Stokes drift parameterizations and wind drag has been examined. We found that the surface ocean currents

  9. Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

  10. A coupled modeling approach to assess the impact of fuel treatments on post-wildfire runoff and erosion

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The hydrological consequences of wildfires are some of the most significant and long-lasting effects. Since wildfire severity impacts post-fire hydrological response, fuel treatments can be a useful tool for land managers to moderate this response. However, current models focus on only one aspect of...

  11. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  12. A comparison of methods for the assessment of odor impacts on air quality: Field inspection (VDI 3940) and the air dispersion model CALPUFF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranzato, Laura; Barausse, Alberto; Mantovani, Alice; Pittarello, Alberto; Benzo, Maurizio; Palmeri, Luca

    2012-12-01

    Unpleasant odors are a major cause of public complaints concerning air quality and represent a growing social problem in industrialized countries. However, the assessment of odor pollution is still regarded as a difficult task, because olfactory nuisance can be caused by many different chemical compounds, often found in hard-to-detect concentrations, and the perception of odors is influenced by subjective thresholds; moreover, the impact of odor sources on air quality is mediated by complex atmospheric dispersion processes. The development of standardized assessment approaches to odor pollution and proper international regulatory tools are urgently needed. In particular, comparisons of the methodologies commonly used nowadays to assess odor impacts on air quality are required. Here, we assess the olfactory nuisance caused by an anaerobic treatment plant for municipal solid waste by means of two alternative techniques: the field inspection procedure and the atmospheric dispersion model CALPUFF. Our goal was to compare rigorously their estimates of odor nuisance, both qualitatively (spatial extent of odor impact) and quantitatively (intensity of odor nuisance). To define the impact of odors, we referred to the German standards, based on the frequency of odor episodes in terms of odor hours. We report a satisfying, although not perfect agreement between the estimates provided by the two techniques. For example, they assessed similar spatial extents of odor pollution, but different frequencies of odor episodes in locations where the odor nuisance was highest. The comparison highlights strengths and weaknesses for both approaches. CALPUFF is a cheaper methodology which can be used predictively, but fugitive emissions are difficult to model reliably, because of uncertainty regarding timing, location and emission rate. Field inspection takes into account the role of human perception, but unlike the model it does not always characterize precisely the extent of the odor

  13. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

  14. Assessment of the Impact of the Spatial Distribution of Isolated and Riparian Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology using a Mathematical Modelling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fossey, M.; Rousseau, A. N.; Savary, S.; Royer, A.

    2014-12-01

    Wetlands play a significant role on the hydrological cycle, reducing peak flows through water storage functions and sustaining low flows through slow release of water. However, their impacts on water resource availability and flood control are mainly driven by wetland types and locations within a watershed. So, despite the general agreement about these major hydrological functions, little is known about their spatial and typological influences. Consequently, assessing the quantitative impact of wetlands on hydrological regimes has become a relevant issue for both the scientific community and the decision-maker community. To investigate the hydrologic response at the watershed scale, mathematical modelling has been a well-accepted framework. Specific isolated and riparian wetland modules were implemented in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL distributed hydrological modelling platform to assess the impact of the spatial distribution of isolated and riparian wetlands on the stream flows of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada. More specifically, the focus was on assessing whether stream flow parameters, including peak flow, low flow and flow volume, were related to: (i) the percentage and the distribution of wetlands in the watershed, (ii) geographic location of wetlands, and (iii) seasons. Preliminary results suggest that: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly improve HYDROTEL's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) isolated and riparian wetlands have individual space- and time-dependent impacts on the hydrologic response of the study watershed.

  15. Characterization and Model Assessment for Impact Damage Evolution in Functionally Graded Composites Using a Novel Nanosecond Deformation Measurement System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-30

    refined to properly produce the functional graded ceramic-metallic materials. Initial samples were produced and tests of the samples for the...rate-dependent properties of materials and high- rate testing of military structures.” Conversations and a meeting at a professional society...Measuring the back surface deformation of personnel armor during impact to validate computational models. • To develop valid test techniques to

  16. Incorporating social concerns in environmental impact assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Wolfe, A.K.

    1990-03-01

    Social impact assessments most often focus on the population-driven impacts of projects. Such impacts may be insignificant when compared with social structural impacts of complex, controversial projects. This set of impacts includes social disruption, social group formation, and stigma effects. The National Environmental Policy Act does not explicitly call for assessment of, and assessors often are reluctant to address, these complex issues. This paper discusses why such impacts are critical to assess and gives examples of how they have been incorporated into environmental assessment documents. 6 refs.

  17. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  18. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Baethgen, W.E.; Magrin, G.O.

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  19. Assessing the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact of Land Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model and the World Wide Web

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, B.; Engel, B.; Harbor, J.; Jones, D.; Lim, K.J.

    1999-09-22

    Assessment of the long-term hydrologic impacts of land use change is important for optimizing management practices to control runoff and non-point source (NPS) pollution associated with watershed development. Land use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, can have a significant impact on water resources. Non-point source (NPS) pollution is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the US and urban areas are an important source of NPS pollution. Despite widespread concern over the environmental impacts of land use changes such as urban sprawl, most planners, government agencies and consultants lack access to simple impact-assessment tools that can be used with readily available data. Before investing in sophisticated analyses and customized data collection, it is desirable to be able to run initial screening analyses using data that are already available. In response to this need, we developed a long-term hydrologic impact assessment technique (L-THIA) using the popular Curve Number (CN) method that makes use of basic land use, soils and long-term rainfall data. Initially developed as a spreadsheet application, the technique allows a user to compare the hydrologic impacts of past, present and any future land use change. Consequently, a NPS pollution module was incorporated to develop the L-THWNPS model. Long-term daily rainfall records are used in combination with soils and land use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. Because of the geospatial nature of land use and soils data, and the increasingly widespread use of GE by planners, government agencies and consultants, the model is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) that allows convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and provides advanced visualization of the model results. Manipulation of the land use layer, or provision of multiple land use layers (for different scenarios), allows for rapid and

  20. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  1. Noise impact on wildlife: An environmental impact assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bender, A.

    1977-01-01

    Various biological effects of noise on animals are discussed and a systematic approach for an impact assessment is developed. Further research is suggested to fully quantify noise impact on the species and its ecosystem.

  2. Application of the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to Fishery Resource Issues in the Klamath River, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Sharon G.; Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John

    2010-01-01

    At the request of two offices of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) located in Yreka and Arcata, Calif., we applied the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to analyze a variety of water management concerns associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing of the Klamath hydropower projects or with ongoing management of anadromous fish stocks in the mainstem Klamath River, Oregon and California. Requested SIAM analyses include predicted effects of reservoir withdrawal elevations, use of full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoirs to augment spring flows, and predicted spawning and juvenile outmigration timing of fall Chinook salmon. In an effort to further refine the analysis of spring flow effects on predicted fall Chinook production, additional SIAM analyses were performed for predicted response to spring flow release variability from Iron Gate Dam, high and low pulse flow releases, the predicted effects of operational constraints for both Upper Klamath Lake water surface elevations, and projected flow releases specified in the Klamath Project 2006 Operations Plan (April 10, 2006). Results of SIAM simulations to determine flow and water temperature relationships indicate that up to 4 degrees C of thermal variability can be attributed to flow variations, but the effect is seasonal. Much more of thermal variability can be attributed to air temperature variations, up to 6 degrees C. Reservoirs affect the annual thermal signature by delaying spring warming by about 3 weeks and fall cooling by about 2 weeks. Multi-level release outlets on Iron Gate Dam would have limited utility; however, if releases are small (700 cfs) and a near-surface and bottom-level outlet could be blended, then water temperature may be reduced by 2-4 degrees C for a 4-week period during September. Using the full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoir, although feasible, had undesirable ramifications such as earlier spring warming, loss of

  3. Impact assessment of PM10 cement plants emissions on urban air quality using the SCIPUFF dispersion model.

    PubMed

    Leone, Vincenzo; Cervone, Guido; Iovino, Pasquale

    2016-09-01

    The Second-order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) model was used to study the impact on urban air quality caused by two cement plants emissions located near the city of Caserta, Italy, during the entire year of 2015. The simulated and observed PM10 concentrations were compared using three monitoring stations located in urban and sub-urban area of Caserta city. Both simulated and observed concentrations are shown to be highest in winter, lower in autumn and spring and lowest in summer. Model results generally follow the pattern of the observed concentrations but have a systematic under-prediction of the concentration values. Measures of the bias, NMSE and RMSE indicate a good correlation between observed and estimated values. The SCIPUFF model data analysis suggest that the cement plants are major sources for the measured PM10 values and are responsible for the deterioration of the urban air quality in the city of Caserta.

  4. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  5. Assessing the Impact of Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malouff, John M.; Schutte, Nicola S.; Rooke, Sally E.

    2008-01-01

    University teaching can have a positive impact, a negative impact, or no impact. This article describes indicators of the impact of university teaching at the unit level. Teaching-impact indicators can be organized by the main beneficiary of the teaching: students; others, such as employers and clients, who interact with the students; the…

  6. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  7. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  8. Application of a source-to-outcome model for the assessment of health impacts from dietary exposures to insecticide residues.

    PubMed

    Price, Paul S; Schnelle, Karl D; Cleveland, Cheryl B; Bartels, Michael J; Hinderliter, Paul M; Timchalk, Charles; Poet, Torka S

    2011-10-01

    The paper presents a case study of the application of a "source-to-outcome" model for the evaluation of the health outcomes from dietary exposures to an insecticide, chlorpyrifos, in populations of adults (age 30) and children (age 3). The model is based on publically-available software programs that characterize the longitudinal dietary exposure and anthropometry of exposed individuals. These predictions are applied to a validated PBPK/PD model to estimate interindividual and longitudinal variation in brain and RBC AChE inhibition (key events) and chlorpyrifos concentrations in blood and TCPy in urine (biomarkers of exposure). The predicted levels of chlorpyrifos and TCPy are compared to published measurements of the biomarkers. Predictions of RBC AChE are compared to levels of inhibition associated with reported exposure-related effects in humans to determine the potential for the occurrence of adverse cholinergic effects. The predicted distributions of chlorpyrifos in blood and TCPy in urine were found to be reasonably consistent with published values, supporting the predictive value of the exposure and PBPK portions of the source-to-outcome model. Key sources of uncertainty in predictions of dietary exposures were investigated and found to have a modest impact on the model predictions. Future versions of this source-to-outcome model can be developed that consider advances in our understanding of metabolism, to extend the approach to other age groups (infants), and address intakes from other routes of exposure.

  9. Use of dynamic soil-vegetation models to assess impacts of nitrogen deposition on plant species composition: an overview.

    PubMed

    De Vries, W; Wamelink, G W W; Van Dobben, H; Kros, J; Reinds, G J; Mol-Dijkstra, J P; Smart, S M; Evans, C D; Rowe, E C; Belyazid, S; Sverdrup, H U; Van Hinsberg, A; Posch, M; Hettelingh, J-P; Spranger, T; Bobbink, R

    2010-01-01

    Field observations and experimental data of effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant species diversity have been used to derive empirical critical N loads for various ecosystems. The great advantage of such an approach is the inclusion of field evidence, but there are also restrictions, such as the absence of explicit criteria regarding significant effects on the vegetation, and the impossibility to predict future impacts when N deposition changes. Model approaches can account for this. In this paper, we review the possibilities of static and dynamic multispecies models in combination with dynamic soil-vegetation models to (1) predict plant species composition as a function of atmospheric N deposition and (2) calculate critical N loads in relation to a prescribed protection level of the species composition. The similarities between the models are presented, but also several important differences, including the use of different indicators for N and acidity and the prediction of individual plant species vs. plant communities. A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the various models, including their validation status, is given. Furthermore, examples are given of critical load calculations with the model chains and their comparison with empirical critical N loads. We show that linked biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for N have potential for applications to support European policy to reduce N input, but the definition of damage thresholds for terrestrial biodiversity represents a major challenge. There is also a clear need for further testing and validation of the models against long-term monitoring or long-term experimental data sets and against large-scale survey data. This requires a focused data collection in Europe, combing vegetation descriptions with variables affecting the species diversity, such as soil acidity, nutrient status and water availability. Finally, there is a need for adaptation and upscaling of the models beyond the regions for which

  10. RETHINKING HUMAN HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT. (R825758)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Most EIA programs around the world require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This article examines how, why, and to what extent health impacts are analyzed in environmental impact assessments in the U.S. ...

  11. Assessment of mineral concentration impacts from pumped stormwater on an Everglades Wetland, Florida, USA - Using a spatially-explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chunfang; Meselhe, Ehab; Waldon, Michael

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) overlays a 58,725 ha remnant of the Northern Everglades which is termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1). The Refuge is impacted by stormwater inflow from flood control pump stations which discharge to a perimeter canal system inside an impounding levee. These discharges contain elevated mineral and nutrient concentrations, with chloride concentration averaging well over 100 mg/L. It has long been established that the Refuge naturally has low mineral content softwater, and that this low-mineral condition affects the species composition of wetland periphyton that are at the base of much of the Refuge food chain. The interior marsh of the Refuge has today been termed rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic, with median chloride concentration averaging 20.5 mg/L. However, chloride concentration in rain water averages roughly 2 mg/L. The level of impact of exogenous pumped inflow on the concentration of chloride and other mineral constituents in the interior marsh has been unclear, and at times it has been debated whether atmospheric loading and evaporation can alone explain observed concentration of chloride in the interior. We applied a spatially explicit hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, MIKE FLOOD, to estimate the unimpacted condition of the interior. We compare this with simulated and monitored chloride concentrations under current conditions. The model was calibrated for a 5-year period (2000-2004), and validated for a 2-year period (2005-2006). We found that when pumped inflow concentration is reduced to an estimated rainfall chloride concentration, interior chloride concentration ranges typically below 5 mg/L. We therefore conclude that the interior chloride concentration is currently dominated by pumped inflows and should not be termed ombrotrophic. We also present initial modeling of one proposed remedial solution for reducing this impact. Our study demonstrates the feasibility

  12. Assessing the impacts of tillage and fertilization management on nitrous oxide emissions in a cornfield using the DNDC model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Qi; Hui, Dafeng; Wang, Junming; Yu, Chih-Li; Li, Changsheng; Reddy, K. Chandra; Dennis, Sam

    2016-02-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands under different agricultural management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage,and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods (i.e., nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure, and split applications) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, Tennessee, under various agricultural management treatments and run for a short term (3 years) and a long term (100 years). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil properties under different agricultural management practices. The modeled emissions of N2O significantly increased by 35% with tillage, and decreased by 24% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emission in a short term, but over a long term (100 years) the treatments significantly altered N2O emission (+35%, -10%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emission was sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining agricultural best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  13. Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

    PubMed

    Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  14. Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

    2009-05-01

    HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable.

  15. Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

    2017-01-01

    We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  16. Life cycle assessment part 2: current impact assessment practice.

    PubMed

    Pennington, D W; Potting, J; Finnveden, G; Lindeijer, E; Jolliet, O; Rydberg, T; Rebitzer, G

    2004-07-01

    Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA).

  17. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O`Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area.

  18. Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG

  19. A process-based model of soil structure to assess the impact of biological agents, climate and reduced tillage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Couteulx, Alexis; Pérès, Guénola; Wolf, Cédric; Hallaire, Vincent

    2014-05-01

    Soil structure can be defined as the spatial arrangement of voids and solids in soil. It is a dynamic soil property due to agents' activity such as (i) mechanical action of soil tillage (ii) earthworms through their burrowing activity and faeces production and (iii) climate impact due to rain or temperature. Soil structure is often studied because of its impacts on soil functional properties, e.g. water percolation, soil water conductivity. In a context of farming practices shift towards non-ploughing techniques, it is needed to evaluate impacts on soil structure and consequently on its functional properties. Existing models have adopted two strategies to simulate soil structure: (i) to use of measured parameters to adjust a theoretical model or (ii) to build a soil structure by simulating processes that are its base. The first strategy does not deal with the difficulty to access soil structure by itself because input measured parameters are needed. The second one starts from either a virgin structure or a structure coming from strategy (i). This starting structure is then altered according to one structuring agent. At present, there is a need for such dynamic models of soil structure. They must be explicit (3D) and common for a large set of structuring agents too. They must also deal with several issues: e.g. to memorize the many voids and solids building up the soil structure or the need to be fast enough to simulate soil structure dynamics for a month, a year, etc. A first proposal, based on the strong assumption that soil is fractal, was made by Marilleau et al. (2008). In our model three structuring agents were chosen: tillage, earthworm's activity and solid particles settlement due to climate. It first focuses on the building of a computerized soil structure which is a common base to simulate the agents. It aims at being as generic as possible by using an object-oriented structure. The concept of voxel is used to split the soil into elementary units and each

  20. Modelling the fluxes, fates and impacts of CO2 leakage, with a focus on environmental assessment and monitoring in the marine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackford, J.

    2013-12-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a primary carbon emissions mitigation strategy, predicated towards environmental and societal protection. As a relatively untested process it is prudent to examine the potential for environmental and economic consequences should there be a failure in storage or transport. Further it will be a necessity to develop an appropriate approach to regulation, monitoring and remediation, should a leakage event occur. A contextual approach is also necessary; risks and consequences of leakage can only be effectively judged against the risks and consequences of not mitigating CO2 emissions. Since in NW Europe much storage potential is sub seabed, the environmental focus of this contribution is marine. In the absence of real data pertaining to CO2 leakage from storage, modelling provides the only technology available to constrain the whole system. However this is still challenging given the requirement to assess the full spectrum of processes that might control CO2 flow from deep geology via shallow sediments, the water column and eventually to the atmosphere whilst modelling transformations and impacts (both biological and economic) en route. In the EU funded ECO2 project a chain of models representing an end to end approach to constraining leakage is being developed. The first group of models are focussed on geomechanics and multiphase fluid flow in the overburden, generating geologically realistic scenarios of CO2 flux. These feed into models that characterise biogeochemical reactions and transport in the shallow, non-consolidated sediments and predict fluxes across the sediment-water interface. These then inform models of the spread of CO2 plumes and gas bubble behaviour in the water column as impacted by hydrodynamics. The range of in-situ CO2 concentrations predicted by the sediment and water column models can then be used to drive models of ecosystem impact. Finally, based on this flux and impact assessment, models of economic valuing

  1. A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality.

    PubMed

    Zessner, Matthias; Schönhart, Martin; Parajka, Juraj; Trautvetter, Helene; Mitter, Hermine; Kirchner, Mathias; Hepp, Gerold; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Strenn, Birgit; Schmid, Erwin

    2017-02-01

    Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of >30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status.

  2. Assessing Receiving Water Quality Impacts due to Flow Path Alteration in Residential Catchments, using the Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolosoff, S. E.; Duncan, J.; Endreny, T.

    2001-05-01

    The Croton water supply system, responsible for supplying approximately 10% of New York City's water, provides an opportunity for exploration into the impacts of significant terrestrial flow path alteration upon receiving water quality. Natural flow paths are altered during residential development in order to allow for construction at a given location, reductions in water table elevation in low lying areas and to provide drainage of increased overland flow volumes. Runoff conducted through an artificial drainage system, is prevented from being attenuated by the natural environment, thus the pollutant removal capacity inherent in most natural catchments is often limited to areas where flow paths are not altered by development. By contrasting the impacts of flow path alterations in two small catchments in the Croton system, with different densities of residential development, we can begin to identify appropriate limits to the re-routing of runoff in catchments draining into surface water supplies. The Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model (SWMM) will be used as a tool to predict the runoff quantity and quality generated from two small residential catchments and to simulate the potential benefits of changes to the existing drainage system design, which may improve water quality due to longer residence times.

  3. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Einheuser, Matthew D.; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P.; Woznicki, Sean A.

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  4. Impact of the Fenton process in meat digestion as assessed using an in vitro gastro-intestinal model.

    PubMed

    Oueslati, Khaled; de La Pomélie, Diane; Santé-Lhoutellier, Véronique; Gatellier, Philippe

    2016-10-15

    The production of oxygen free radicals catalysed by non-haem iron was investigated in an in vitro mimetic model of the digestive tract using specific chemical traps. Superoxide radicals (O2(∗-)) and their protonated form (hydroperoxyl radicals, HO2(∗)) were detected by the reduction of nitroblue tetrazolium into formazan, and hydroxyl radicals (OH(∗)) were detected by the hydroxylation of terephthalate. Under gastric conditions, O2(∗-)/HO2(∗) were detected in higher quantity than OH(∗). Increasing the pH from 3.5 to 6.5 poorly affected the kinetics of free radical production. The oxidations generated by these free radicals were estimated on myofibrils prepared from pork rectus femoris muscle. Myofibrillar lipid and protein oxidation increased with time and oxidant concentration, with a negative impact on the digestibility of myofibrillar proteins. Plant food antioxidants considerably decreased free radical production and lipid oxidation but not protein oxidation.

  5. Human and ecotoxicological impacts assessment from the Mexican oil industry in the Coatzacoalcos region, as revealed by the USEtox model.

    PubMed

    Morales-Mora, M A; Rodríguez-Pérez, B; Martínez-Delgadillo, S A; Rosa-Domínguez, E; Nolasco-Hipólito, C

    2014-01-01

    Human and ecotoxicological impacts were analyzed in the lower basin of the Coatzacoalcos River (Veracruz, State in Mexico). High pollution levels of contaminants from the oil industry have been reported in natural streams and the Coatzacoalcos River and in their sediments. USEtox model was employed to evaluate environmental fate, exposure, and effect of nine organic compounds (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and one of which was in the group of polychlorinated biphenyls), a heavy metal (lead), and the effect of the industrial wastewater emitted into the river, on the Coatzacoalcos region. Most of these compounds are highly toxic; they bioaccumulate in human and animal tissue, mainly in the fatty tissues and can damage different organs and systemic targets such as the liver, kidney, hormonal system, nervous system, etc., of both humans and wildlife. The model estimates that 96% (3,247 kg/day) of organic compounds is transferred from the water into air, whereas only 4% (151 kg/day) remains in the water. In addition, it predicts that humans are mainly exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) congeners (28 and 153) by eating contaminated fish, due to PCBs accumulating in the fish fat tissue. The number of cases of cancer and noncancer (1 in 862 habitants per additional kilogram) is expected to have an increment due to the higher PCBs exposure of human population. Genetic damages in fishes, earthworms, and toads have been observed and related to higher exposure to organic compounds. The relationship between the field reported data and those one predicted by the USEtox model have been confirmed empirically by using the nonparametric correlation analysis (Spearman's rho). Based on the USEtox model, the environmental stress in the Coatzacoalcos industrial zone is between 2 and 6 orders of magnitude over geometric mean of acute aquatic EC₅₀s. We think that USEtox model can be used to expand the number of substances that have the current water quality guidelines to

  6. Assessing the Impacts of Tillage and Fertilization Management on Nitrous Oxide Emissions in a Cornfield Using the DNDC Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, D.; Deng, Q.; Wang, J.; Yu, C. L.; Li, C.; Reddy, C.; Dennis, S.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands for multiple management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage, and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, TN under various management treatments and run for a short term (3 yrs) and a long term (100 yrs). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil and climate conditions under different tillage, alternative use of N fertilizer sources or application methods (i.e. nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure and split applications), given that the model was parameterized based on the measured crop growths for each treatment. The emissions of N2O significantly increased by 29% with tillage, and decreased by 26% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with the no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emissions in a short term, but over a long term (100 yrs) they might significantly alter N2O emission (+30%, -12%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emissions were sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining the best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Assessment of climate change impact on the fates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the multimedia environment based on model prediction.

    PubMed

    Cai, Juan Juan; Song, Jee Hey; Lee, Yunah; Lee, Dong Soo

    2014-02-01

    The objective was to quantitatively understand the impacts of climate change (CC) under the A1B scenario on the contamination levels of 11 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from pyrogenic sources in the environmental media based on model prediction. To predict the impacts of CC in South Korea, a revised version of KoEFT-PBTs, a dynamic multimedia model for persistent organic pollutants in South Korea, was used. Simulations were conducted for the period from 2000 to 2049 under the A1B scenario with the emission data for 2009 and the results for Seoul and Kangwon were compared to those under no climate change (NCC) scenario. Due to CC, the average of annual or monthly average concentration changes within a factor of two for the PAHs in air, soil and water. Time dependent comparison indicates that the maximum increase induced by CC in the monthly average concentration ranges from 10 to 10(2) in air and water. Change in advective flux due to wind speed difference between A1B and NCC dictates the change of the atmospheric PAHs levels while wet particle deposition due to rain rate difference contributes to some extent to the change of 5 and 6 ring PAHs. Whether the concentration change is positive or not depends primarily on the emission strength of internal sources relative to those in surrounding areas. The CC induced changes in atmospheric depositions and degradation rate in soil play a leading role in the change of soil concentration. In water, runoff and degradation are the key processes to the CC induced concentration change. Both in soil and water, the relative importance of individual key processes varies with PAHs. The difference between the two scenarios in wind speed and in rain rate shows stronger correlations with the concentration change than the temperature change.

  8. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  9. USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Bachmann, Till M.; Swirsky Gold, Lois; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Jolliet, Olivier; Juraske, Ronnie; Koehler, Annette; Larsen, Henrik F.; MacLeod, Matthew; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E.; Payet, Jerome; Schuhmacher, Marta; van de Meent, Dik; Hauschild, Michael Z.

    2008-02-03

    provides a parsimonious and transparent tool for human health and ecosystem CF estimates. Based on a referenced database, it has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and forms the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC's Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. Recommendations and Perspectives. We provide both recommended and interim (not recommended and to be used with caution) characterisation factors for human health and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts. After a process of consensus building among stakeholders on a broad scale as well as several improvements regarding a wider and easier applicability of the model, USEtox will become available to practitioners for the calculation of further CFs.

  10. The U.S. Geological Survey Coal Hydrology Program and the potential of hydrologic models for impact assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, W. Harry

    1981-01-01

    A requirement of Public Law 95-87, the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, is the understanding of the hydrology in actual and proposed surface-mined areas. Surface-water data for small specific-sites and for larger areas such as adjacent and general areas are needed also to satisfy the hydrologic requirements of the Act. The Act specifies that surface-water modeling techniques may be used to generate the data and information. The purpose of this report is to describe how this can be achieved for smaller watersheds. This report also characterizes 12 ' state-of-the-art ' strip-mining assessment models that are to be tested with data from two data-intensive studies involving small watersheds in Tennessee and Indiana. Watershed models are best applied to small watersheds with specific-site data. Extending the use of modeling techniques to larger watersheds remains relatively untested, and to date the upper limits for application have not been established. The U.S. Geological Survey is currently collecting regional hydrologic data in the major coal provinces of the United States and this data will be used to help satisfy the ' general-area ' data requirements of the Act. This program is reviewed and described in this report. (USGS)

  11. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis; Herrick, Courtney G.; Zeitler, Todd; Malama, Bwalya; Rudeen, David Keith; Gilkey, Amy P.

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  12. Climate change impact assessment on mountain snow hydrology by water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatti, Asif M.; Koike, Toshio; Shrestha, Maheswor

    2016-12-01

    A water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) was applied to elucidate the impact of climate change on mountain snow hydrology in the Shubuto River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The simulated spatial distribution of snow cover was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day maximum snow-cover extent (MOD10A2) product, which revealed the model's capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variations in snow cover within the study area. Four Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were selected and the SRESA1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to describe climate predictions in the basin. All AOGCMs predict a future decrease in snowmelt contribution to total discharge 11-22% and an average decrease in SWE of 36%, with a shift in peak SWE by 4-14 days. The shift in runoff regime is broadly consistent between the AOGCMs with snowmelt-induced peak discharge expected to occur on average about two weeks earlier in the future hydrological year. The warming climate will drive a shift in runoff regime from a combined rainfall- and snowmelt-driven regime to one with a reduced contribution from snowmelt. The results of the study revealed that the model could be successfully applicable on the basin scale to simulate river discharge and snow processes and to investigate the effect of climate change on hydrological processes. This research contributes to improve the understanding of basin hydrological responses and the pace of change associated with climate variability.

  13. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and FJORD system.

    PubMed

    Kaste, Ø; Wright, R F; Barkved, L J; Bjerkeng, B; Engen-Skaugen, T; Magnusson, J; Saelthun, N R

    2006-07-15

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km(2)) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 degrees C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 degrees C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N

  14. A method for the assessment of site-specific economic impacts of commercial and industrial biomass energy facilities. A handbook and computer model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    A handbook on ``A Method for the Assessment of Site-specific Econoomic Impacts of Industrial and Commercial Biomass Energy Facilities`` has been prepared by Resource Systems Group Inc. under contract to the Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program (SERBEP). The handbook includes a user-friendly Lotus 123 spreadsheet which calculates the economic impacts of biomass energy facilities. The analysis uses a hybrid approach, combining direct site-specific data provided by the user, with indirect impact multipliers from the US Forest Service IMPLAN input/output model for each state. Direct economic impacts are determined primarily from site-specific data and indirect impacts are determined from the IMPLAN multipliers. The economic impacts are given in terms of income, employment, and state and federal taxes generated directly by the specific facility and by the indirect economic activity associated with each project. A worksheet is provided which guides the user in identifying and entering the appropriate financial data on the plant to be evaluated. The WLAN multipliers for each state are included in a database within the program. The multipliers are applied automatically after the user has entered the site-specific data and the state in which the facility is located. Output from the analysis includes a summary of direct and indirect income, employment and taxes. Case studies of large and small wood energy facilities and an ethanol plant are provided as examples to demonstrate the method. Although the handbook and program are intended for use by those with no previous experience in economic impact analysis, suggestions are given for the more experienced user who may wish to modify the analysis techniques.

  15. Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Marmorek, David R.

    1983-01-01

    Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic

  16. A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories - evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan.

    PubMed

    Mancebo Quintana, S; Martín Ramos, B; Casermeiro Martínez, M A; Otero Pastor, I

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials). This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km(2). In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html). The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories.

  17. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures.

  18. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  19. A USCLVAR Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2009-01-01

    The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of

  20. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts.

    PubMed

    Iskandar, Anita R; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-09-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air-liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model.

  1. Integrating Land Conservation and Renewable Energy Goals in California: Assessing Land Use and Economic Cost Impacts Using the Optimal Renewable Energy Build-Out (ORB) Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. C.; Schlag, N. H.; Cameron, D. R.; Brand, E.; Crane, L.; Williams, J.; Price, S.; Hernandez, R. R.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    There is a lack of understanding of the environmental impacts and economic costs of potential renewable energy (RE) siting decisions that achieve ambitious RE targets. Such analyses are needed to inform policy recommendations that minimize potential conflicts between conservation and RE development. We use the state of California's rapid development of utility-scale RE as a case study to examine how possible land use constraints impact the total electricity land area, areas with conservation value, water use, and electricity cost of ambitious RE portfolios. We developed the Optimal Renewable energy Build-out (ORB) model, and used it in conjunction with the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Calculator, a RE procurement and transmission planning tool used by utilities within California, to generate environmentally constrained renewable energy potential and assess the cost and siting-associated impacts of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power (CSP), and geothermal technologies. We find that imposing environmental constraints on RE development achieves lower conservation impacts and results in development of more fragmented land areas. With increased RE and environmental exclusions, generation becomes more widely distributed across the state, which results in more development on herbaceous agricultural vegetation, grasslands, and developed & urban land cover types. We find land use efficiencies of RE technologies are relatively inelastic to changes in environmental constraints, suggesting that cost-effective substitutions that reduce environmental impact and achieve RE goals is possible under most scenarios and exclusion categories. At very high RE penetration that is limited to in-state development, cost effectiveness decreases substantially under the highest level of environmental constraint due to the over-reliance on solar technologies. This additional cost is removed once the in-state constraint is lifted, suggesting that minimizing both negative

  2. Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated hydrology-geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)-Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS-Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non-negligible probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate "alternatives." This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment yield is already so

  3. Environmental Methods Review: Retooling Impact Assessment for the New Century

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-03-01

    Assessment: Wanted-Dead or Alive! [A. Thomas Roper and Alan L. Porter] PROCESSES 14 Methods for EIA: Selecting a Model and Approach [Ron D. Webster] 15...Emerging Issues [Cory H. Wilkinson] MODELS IN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT 33 Selecting· Computer Models and Input Parameters for Analysis of...Meier raise data and modeling issues with wide implications in EAandlA. • Brown’s "environmental overview" and "decision- scoping" offer exciting

  4. Environmental Impact Assessment and Space Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viikari, L.

    least more open distribution of information about human enterprises in space, too.However, the "public concerned" in space activities may cover the entire humanity, which would most likely direct the possible spatial EIA procedures into the auspices of the UN, with states representing their portion of the "public". Despite the peculiarities in assessing the potential impacts of space activities, Environmental Impact Assessment, modified to answer thes e particular features, would seem as a tool worth considering for the above objectives of enhanced environmental protection and public involvement. This is particularly true, as any adverse environmental impacts of space activities are highly difficult to mitigate, once they have materialized. For the above mentioned reasons, and for the fact that space activities are regulated for a major part on policy level, particularly Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) would seem a viable option. As distinct from the project EIA, the SEA means carrying out EIAs of plans themselves, i.e. it directly addresses the environmental implications of proposed strategies and policies. Formerly, the governmental authorities tended to regard SEA with suspicion because of the public interest groups involvement in policy making that the SEA entails. However, currently the SEA is a highly topical issue in the international arena, particularly because of the ongoing discussions within the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe about adopting a Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to amend the Espoo Convention, and of the recent EU Directive (2001/42/EC) on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on t he environment. These instruments could also serve as feasible models for SEA in the outer space environment.

  5. Uncertainty in environmental health impact assessment: quantitative methods and perspectives.

    PubMed

    Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Vanni, Tazio; Foss, Anna M

    2013-01-01

    Environmental health impact assessment models are subjected to great uncertainty due to the complex associations between environmental exposures and health. Quantifying the impact of uncertainty is important if the models are used to support health policy decisions. We conducted a systematic review to identify and appraise current methods used to quantify the uncertainty in environmental health impact assessment. In the 19 studies meeting the inclusion criteria, several methods were identified. These were grouped into random sampling methods, second-order probability methods, Bayesian methods, fuzzy sets, and deterministic sensitivity analysis methods. All 19 studies addressed the uncertainty in the parameter values but only 5 of the studies also addressed the uncertainty in the structure of the models. None of the articles reviewed considered conceptual sources of uncertainty associated with the framing assumptions or the conceptualisation of the model. Future research should attempt to broaden the way uncertainty is taken into account in environmental health impact assessments.

  6. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  7. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  8. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  9. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  10. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  11. Assessing the Impact of Spatial Scaling on Empirical Runoff Ratio Models within a Heterogeneous Suburbanizing Watershed in Central Indiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindner, G. A.; Caylor, K. K.

    2007-12-01

    Suburbanized watersheds are characterized by a spatially complex mosaic of fragmented impervious and vegetated surfaces. The heterogeneous nature of land cover in and the variety of storm routing structures that accompany suburban development substantially modify surface hydrological dynamics within suburban watersheds. The hydrological consequences of land use and land cover change create a pressing issue for the management of water resources within developing watersheds. This research examines the hydrological impacts of recent population growth and accompanying suburban development within the Jack's Defeat Creek watershed in Ellettsville, IN, which is a 40 km2 basin that has experienced an approximate doubling in population in the last 25 years. Event-based, whole-basin runoff responses are determined from streamflow and precipitation data collected during 2005 and 2006 under both wet and dry antecedent conditions. Observed runoff responses are compared to multi-scale predictions of runoff ratios derived from the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number, which is an empirical model commonly used by municipal planning agencies to generate runoff estimates based largely on characterization of land cover and soil type. The comparison of observed whole-basin runoff response to predictions of the SCS Curve Number derived from a range of spatial scales addresses both (1) the accuracy of the Curve Number method as a predictor of runoff response in heterogeneously impervious landscapes as well as (2) the spatial scale at which the runoff estimates from empirical approaches best match the observed data under varying antecedent moisture conditions. These results will provide guidance regarding the best practices for employing empirical rainfall-runoff relationships to predict storm runoff responses in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

  12. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Rivkin, A.; Reed, C.

    2012-12-01

    To protect the Earth from a hazardous asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. AIDA, consisting of two mission elements, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, is a demonstration of asteroid deflection. To date, there has been no such demonstration, and there is major uncertainty in the result of a spacecraft impact onto an asteroid, that is, the amount of deflection produced by a given momentum input from the impact. This uncertainty is in part due to unknown physical properties of the asteroid surface, such as porosity and strength, and in part due to poorly understood impact physics such that the momentum carried off by ejecta is highly uncertain. A first mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection would not only be a major step towards gaining the capability to mitigate an asteroid hazard, but in addition it would return unique information on an asteroid's strength, other surface properties, and internal structure. This information return would be highly relevant to future human exploration of asteroids. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART spacecraft impactor study is coordinated with an ESA study of the AIM mission, which would rendezvous with the same asteroid to measure effects of the impact. Unlike the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid. DART includes ground-based observations to measure the deflection independently of the rendezvous spacecraft observations from AIM, which also measures deflection and provides detailed characterization of the target asteroid. The joint mission AIDA

  13. Multi-Target Calibration with a VIC Hydrologic Model: Impacts of Climate Change and Risk Assessment in the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wi, S.; Isenstein, L.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is applied to the headwaters of the Arkansas River (Colorado Springs) in the USA for the purpose of water supply evaluation. Modeling the hydrologic regime of the Arkansas River is a challenge due to the large number of diversions and regulations that might impact the natural streamflow. Since the Arkansas River headwaters are snow-melt dominated, a snow cover dataset can provide additional information during the model calibration process. Remote sensing snow data have been successfully used in previous studies coupled with hydrologic modeling to improve calibration results. Using the daily snow data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and this study tests different calibration schemes to determine the most suitable calibration target(s) for the Colorado Springs. First, the VIC model is calibrated to streamflow and snow alone, and then a mutli-objective optimization is utilized to calibrate the model to streamflow and snow simultaneously. A well calibrated hydrologic model can be employed particularly for climate change assessments to inform decision makers about water availability and water supply under different climate conditions. This study will provide such information to Colorado Springs in which development in terms of water supply is expected to grow considerably; increases in demands are projected to be 28% higher than the present demands (approximately 102 billion gallons) by the year 2050.

  14. Technical approach for the assessment of air emissions from municipal landfills using the US EPA flux chamber and dispersion modeling to predict off-site impact potential

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, C.E.; Wilsey, S.D.; Hasek, T. Jr.

    1998-12-31

    Municipal solid waste landfills are described as large, heterogeneous area sources with relatively high generation rates of methane and carbon dioxide and relatively low emission levels of total non-methane hydrocarbon compounds (TNMHCs) and reduced sulfur compounds (RSCs) including hydrogen sulfide. Recent public awareness and enacted air regulations have generated concerns from fugitive emissions of landfill gases as a significant contribution to air pollution and the potential health effects off-site. As such, assessing impacts to local ambient air quality around a municipal landfill can be a challenge to quantify and evaluate. A technical approach has been developed and used at a large municipal landfill in the Northeast in order to assess potential impact to local air quality with particular emphasis on identifying hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) and RSCs as well as other air toxics and odor-causing compounds. The technical approach includes: Screening the landfill surface using direct-reading field analyzers based on a surface grid system; Assigning areas of similar emission potential based on screening data and engineering descriptions of the landfill (surface condition and operation); Direct emission testing using the US EPA recommended flux chamber, estimating area-specific emissions using measured flux and surface area; Predicting off-site impact using a dispersion model with area source input capability; and Collection of collaborating off-site ambient air samples during periods of significant odor events to identify compounds and their concentrations. This approach was found to be superior to other assessment approaches including use of emission factors or indirect ambient air monitoring technologies.

  15. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Andrew F.; Rivkin, A.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Reed, C.

    2012-10-01

    Near Earth objects are small bodies orbiting the Sun near Earth’s orbit, some of which impact the Earth. The impact of an object as large as 30 m in diameter occurs every few centuries. The impact of such an object would already release an energy of at least a megaton of TNT, and the impact of a larger object, which would occur less often, would be even more hazardous. To protect the Earth from a potential asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is such an asteroid mitigation mission concept. This mission would be a valuable precursor to human spaceflight to an asteroid, as it would return unique information on an asteroid’s strength and internal structure and would be particularly relevant to a human mission for asteroid mitigation. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART study is coordinated with an ESA study of an Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, which would rendezvous with the same target. AIDA follows the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, with the objective of demonstrating the ability to modify the trajectory of an asteroid and measure the trajectory change. Don Quijote involved an orbiter and an impactor spacecraft, with the orbiter arriving first and measuring the deflection, and with the orbiter making additional characterization measurements. Unlike Don Quijote, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid, with ground-based observations to measure the deflection as well as additional spacecraft observations from AIM. Low cost mission approaches will be presented.

  16. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  17. Multilevel-multifaceted approach to assessing the impact of technology-mediated modeling practice on student understanding of the particulate nature of matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Hsin-Yi

    Computer animations or dynamic models may support students' visualization of dynamic processes or abstract relationships. However, research has shown mixed results for the effect of instructional animation on student learning. More studies are needed to advance the understanding of the theoretical foundation and educational value of instructional animation. In this study I explored the use of technology-mediated modeling practices to augment the impact of an animation tool, Chemation, in seventh-grade science classrooms. Chemation can mediate students' modeling practices including designing, interpreting and evaluating animations. The purpose of this study is to discern the impact of these technology-mediated modeling practices on students' chemistry understanding by employing a systematic approach of research methods. I compared student learning in three treatments: students (1) design, interpret, and evaluate animations, (2) only design and interpret animations, and (3) only view teacher-made animations and interpret the animation. Eight seventh-grade classes (271 students) were randomly assigned to the treatments. I examined multiple measures including students' worksheets and animations, selected students' post-instructional interviews, and pre- and post-instructional chemistry achievement tests to assess three facets of chemistry understanding: (1) adequate chemistry content knowledge, (2) mastered representation skill, and (3) coherent conceptual framework. I also examined students' cognitive strategies demonstrated as they constructed animations of molecular processes during the interview. The results of the multiple measures consistently indicate that the complete combination of the technology-mediated modeling practices better supported student development of chemistry understanding, revealing that designing animation coupled with peer-evaluation is an effective approach to the use of instructional animation. Moreover, the designing approach prompts

  18. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  19. The Impact of an Alternative Professional Development Model on Teacher Practices in Formative Assessment and Student Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Jack; Myran, Steve; Strauss, Richard; Reed, William

    2014-01-01

    Among contemporary means of enhancing student learning, formative assessment is perhaps one of the most important and effective. While formative assessment ideas and practices have been shown to have a proven record enhancing student learning, these practices are slow to be fully integrated into teachers' day-to-day classroom practices. This study…

  20. Development of an flood-inundation model nesting a grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for impact assessment of water-related disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.

    2013-12-01

    A risk assessment of water-related disaster under a changing climate has been highly concerned recently. To examine a change of the magnitude of inundation disasters is an important issue for a risk assessment of water-related disasters. It takes huge computational cost to conduct many 2D-inundation simulations for a whole basin under various external force scenarios. If inundation simulations are conducted only for a possible inundation area, it will highly reduce the computational time. To achieve this purpose, a flood-inundation model which nests a distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed. First, as a rainfall-runoff model to predict flood discharge, a distributed hydrologic model in 30 second spatial resolution, 1K-DHM (http://hywr.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/products/1K-DHM/1K-DHM.html) was developed, which uses digital elevation and flow direction information in HydroSHED developed by the USGS. 1K-DHM routes spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff using kinematic wave approximation from an upper grid to a lower grid along a flow direction map. Second, the flood-inundation model nesting the rainfall-runoff was developed. The framework of the inundation model is as follows. Setting river discharge simulated by 1K-DHM as a boundary condition, the flood-inundation model calculates river discharge and flooded water by the 1D and 2D inertial model which neglects the advective term in a momentum equation proposed by Bates et. al. (J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010). The inundation model considers a gradient of water stage with lower computational cost than the diffusive wave model. A devised discretization scheme (Bates et. al.: J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010) enhances the inundation model to capture the relevant mechanisms of flood propagation with very high computational performance and stability. The distributed runoff model and the inundation model use the same topographic data, thus river channel networks in the flood-inundation model with the 3 second resolution falls

  1. A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

    2016-01-01

    Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

  2. Catalysis-by-design impacts assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Fassbender, L L; Young, J K; Sen, R K

    1991-05-01

    Catalyst researchers have always recognized the need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms of catalytic processes, and have hoped that it would lead to developing a theoretical predictive base to guide the search for new catalysts. This understanding allows one to develop a set of hierarchical models, from fundamental atomic-level ab-initio models to detailed engineering simulations of reactor systems, to direct the search for optimized, efficient catalyst systems. During the last two decades, the explosions of advanced surface analysis techniques have helped considerably to develop the building blocks for understanding various catalytic reactions. An effort to couple these theoretical and experimental advances to develop a set of hierarchical models to predict the nature of catalytic materials is a program entitled Catalysis-by-Design (CRD).'' In assessing the potential impacts of CBD on US industry, the key point to remember is that the value of the program lies in developing a novel methodology to search for new catalyst systems. Industrial researchers can then use this methodology to develop proprietary catalysts. Most companies involved in catalyst R D have two types of ongoing projects. The first type, what we call market-driven R D,'' are projects that support and improve upon a company's existing product lines. Project of the second type, technology-driven R D,'' are longer term, involve the development of totally new catalysts, and are initiated through scientists' research ideas. The CBD approach will impact both types of projects. However, this analysis indicates that the near-term impacts will be on market-driven'' projects. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report were obtained by the authors through personal interviews with individuals involved in a variety of industrial catalyst development programs and through the three CBD workshops held in the summer of 1989. 34 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  3. LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT SOPHISTICATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    An international workshop was held in Brussels on 11/29-30/1998, to discuss LCIA Sophistication. LCA experts from North America, Europs, and Asia attended. Critical reviews of associated factors, including current limitations of available assessment methodologies, and comparison...

  4. LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT - A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research within the field of life cycle impact assessment has greatly improved since the work of Heijungs and Guinee in 1992. Methodologies are currently available to address specific locations within North America, Europe and Asia. Internationally researchers are working togethe...

  5. Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Health Impact Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a methodology for incorporating considerations of public health into planning and decision-making processes. HIA promotes interdisciplinary action, stakeholder participation, and timeliness and takes into account equity, sustainability, and...

  6. An Earth Penetrating Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Stokes, E; Yarrington, P; Glenn, L

    2005-06-21

    Documentation of a study to assess the capability of computer codes to predict lateral loads on earth penetrating projectiles under conditions of non-normal impact. Calculations simulated a set of small scale penetration tests into concrete targets with oblique faces at angles of 15 and 30 degrees to the line-of-flight. Predictive codes used by the various calculational teams cover a wide range of modeling approaches from approximate techniques, such as cavity expansion, to numerical methods, such as finite element codes. The modeling assessment was performed under the auspices of the Phenomenology Integrated Product Team (PIPT) for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Program (RNEP). Funding for the penetration experiments and modeling was provided by multiple earth penetrator programs.

  7. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  8. Linking Global to Regional Models to Assess Future Climate Impacts on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    The UCD sectional aerosol model has been coupled to the CMAQ air quality model and used to simulate air quality in Tampa, Florida. Sea salt emissions are parameterized as a function of modeled wind speed and relative humidity. Modeled aerosol sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sodium,...

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  10. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  11. The Strategic Assessment Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glazner, Steve, Ed.

    This book presents six papers focusing on the application of the strategic assessment model (SAM) to the management of higher education facilities. The papers are part of an ongoing effort by the Association of Higher Education Facilities Officers to provide comparative cost and staffing information and to develop a benchmarking process. The…

  12. Assessment for Learning: Effects and Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flórez, María Teresa; Sammons, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    The idea that schools can impact positively on student outcomes is a crucial driver in the rise of interest in school improvement research and practice. This review focuses on assessment for learning. Assessment for learning (AfL)--where the first priority is to promote learning--is a key means of initiating improvement. This review proposes that…

  13. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Huang, Chengquan; Prior, Stephen A.; Pan, Shufen

    2013-07-01

    Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest management in this region. In this study, we introduced a process-based ecosystem model for simulating forest disturbance impacts on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Based on forest mortality data classified from Landsat TM/ETM + images, this model was then applied to estimate changes in carbon storage using Mississippi and Alabama as a case study. Mean annual forest mortality rate for these states was 2.37%. Due to frequent disturbance, over 50% of the forest land in the study region was less than 30 years old. Forest disturbance events caused a large carbon source (138.92 Tg C, 6.04 Tg C yr-1; 1 Tg = 1012 g) for both states during 1984–2007, accounting for 2.89% (4.81% if disregard carbon storage changes in wood products) of the total forest carbon storage in this region. Large decreases and slow recovery of forest biomass were the main causes for carbon release. Forest disturbance could result in a carbon sink in few areas if wood product carbon was considered as a local carbon pool, indicating the importance of accounting for wood product carbon when assessing forest disturbance effects. The legacy effects of forest disturbance on ecosystem carbon storage could last over 50 years. Lastly, this study implies that understanding forest disturbance impacts on carbon dynamics is of critical importance for assessing regional carbon budgets.

  14. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Huang, Chengquan; Prior, Stephen A.; Pan, Shufen

    2013-07-01

    ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest management in this region. In this study, we introduced a process-based ecosystem model for simulating forest disturbance impacts on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Based on forest mortality data classified from Landsat TM/ETM + images, this model was then applied to estimate changes in carbon storage using Mississippi and Alabama as a case study. Mean annual forest mortality rate for these states was 2.37%. Due to frequent disturbance, over 50% of the forest land in the study region was less than 30 years old. Forest disturbance events caused a large carbon source (138.92 Tg C, 6.04 Tg C yr-1; 1 Tg = 1012 g) for both states during 1984-2007, accounting for 2.89% (4.81% if disregard carbon storage changes in wood products) of the total forest carbon storage in this region. Large decreases and slow recovery of forest biomass were the main causes for carbon release. Forest disturbance could result in a carbon sink in few areas if wood product carbon was considered as a local carbon pool, indicating the importance of accounting for wood product carbon when assessing forest disturbance effects. The legacy effects of forest disturbance on ecosystem carbon storage could last over 50 years. This study implies that understanding forest disturbance impacts on carbon dynamics is of critical importance for assessing regional carbon budgets.

  15. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region.

  16. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

    DOE PAGES

    Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Huang, Chengquan; ...

    2013-07-01

    Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest management in this region. In this study, we introduced a process-based ecosystem model for simulating forest disturbance impacts on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Based on forest mortality data classified from Landsat TM/ETM + images, this model was then applied to estimate changes in carbon storage using Mississippi and Alabama as a case study. Mean annual forest mortality rate formore » these states was 2.37%. Due to frequent disturbance, over 50% of the forest land in the study region was less than 30 years old. Forest disturbance events caused a large carbon source (138.92 Tg C, 6.04 Tg C yr-1; 1 Tg = 1012 g) for both states during 1984–2007, accounting for 2.89% (4.81% if disregard carbon storage changes in wood products) of the total forest carbon storage in this region. Large decreases and slow recovery of forest biomass were the main causes for carbon release. Forest disturbance could result in a carbon sink in few areas if wood product carbon was considered as a local carbon pool, indicating the importance of accounting for wood product carbon when assessing forest disturbance effects. The legacy effects of forest disturbance on ecosystem carbon storage could last over 50 years. Lastly, this study implies that understanding forest disturbance impacts on carbon dynamics is of critical importance for assessing regional carbon budgets.« less

  17. AIDA: the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincent, Jean-Baptiste

    2016-07-01

    The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint cooperation between European and US space agencies that consists of two separate and independent spacecraft that will be launched to a binary asteroid system, the near-Earth asteroid Didymos, to assess the possibility of deflecting an asteroid trajectory by using a kinetic impactor. The European Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is under Phase A/B1 study at ESA from March 2015 until summer 2016. AIM is set to rendez-vous with the asteroid system a few months prior to the impact by the US Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to fully characterize the smaller of the two binary components. AIM is a unique mission as it will be the first time that a spacecraft will investigate the surface, subsurface, and internal properties of a small binary near Earth asteroid. In addition it will perform various important technology demonstrations that can serve other space missions: AIM will release a set of CubeSats in deep space and a lander on the surface of the smaller asteroid and for the first time, deep-space inter-satellite linking will be demonstrated between the main spacecraft, the CubeSats, and the lander, and data will also be transmitted from interplanetary space to Earth by a laser communication system. The knowledge obtained by this mission will have great implications for our understanding of the history of the Solar System. Small asteroids are believed to result from collisions and other processes (e.g., spinup, shaking) that made them what they are now. Having direct information on their surface and internal properties will allow us to understand how these processes work and transform these small bodies as well as, for this particular case, how a binary system forms. So far, our understanding of the collisional process and the validation of numerical simulations of the impact process rely on impact experiments at laboratory scales. With DART, thanks to the characterization of the

  18. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model to Assess the Impact of Coastal Operations On Urban Scale Air Quality

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-29

    UAM Urban Airshed Model UV ultra violet VOC Volatile organic carbon (i.e., hydrocarbons) WDD Wind Direction WDS Wind Speed viii...signals from these analyzers, the levels of NOx, NOz and nitrate could be determined. CO was measured with a Aero- Laser Model AL5002 vacuum UV ...5002 Laser -induced UV fluorescence 0.2ppb Standard configuration CO 3λ - Nephelometer TSI Model 3560 Optical scattering of particles

  19. Assessing impacts of off-nadir observation on remote sensing of vegetation - Use of the Suits model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartlett, D. S.; Johnson, R. W.; Hardisky, M. A.; Klemas, V.

    1986-01-01

    The use of Suits' (1972a, b) digital radiative transfer model to simulate the effect of nonLambertian canopy reflectance on off-nadir observations of vegetation is discussed. Canopy reflectances of cord grass are calculated using the radiative transfer model, field radiometric measurements, and airborne multispectral scanner data. The effects of varying view angles on canopy reflectance are analyzed and compared. The comparison reveals that the model is effective in simulating the sense and magnitude of reflectance change due to variable angles of observations; however, the model does not reproduce the observed dependence of nadir canopy reflectance on solar zenith angle. It is concluded that the radiative transfer model is applicable for predicting the variation in canopy reflectance due to changing view zenith angles.

  20. Pb-Pb dating of individual chondrules from the CBa chondrite Gujba: Assessment of the impact plume formation model

    PubMed Central

    Bollard, Jean; Connelly, James N.; Bizzarro, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The CB chondrites are metal-rich meteorites with characteristics that sharply distinguish them from other chondrite groups. Their unusual chemical and petrologic features and a young formation age of bulk chondrules dated from the CBa chondrite Gujba are interpreted to reflect a single-stage impact origin. Here, we report high-precision internal isochrons for four individual chondrules of the Gujba chondrite to probe the formation history of CB chondrites and evaluate the concordancy of relevant short-lived radionuclide chronometers. All four chondrules define a brief formation interval with a weighted mean age of 4562.49 ± 0.21 Myr, consistent with its origin from the vapor-melt impact plume generated by colliding planetesimals. Formation in a debris disk mostly devoid of nebular gas and dust sets an upper limit for the solar protoplanetary disk lifetime at 4.8 ± 0.3 Myr. Finally, given the well-behaved Pb-Pb systematics of all four chondrules, a precise formation age and the concordancy of the Mn-Cr, Hf-W, and I-Xe short-lived radionuclide relative chronometers, we propose that Gujba may serve as a suitable time anchor for these systems. PMID:27429545

  1. The Gwava Model - Development of A Global-scale Methodology To Assess The Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meigh, J. R.; Tate, E. L.

    The GWAVA model is a global-scale approach to hydrological modelling that has been developed to provide a consistent and realistic examination of water resources problems. By using linked 0.5 by 0.5 degree cells, global data sets can be applied and coverage of large regions becomes possible. The key output is comparison of wa- ter availability and water demands at the scale of the grid cell. Unlike most other global-scale assessments, GWAVA highlights both temporal and spatial aspects of water scarcity. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to river flows, and runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accu- mulated to give total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps using estimates of the potential yield and likely maximum borehole density, while also considering potential recharge derived from the surface water model. Water demands are based on population and livestock data, and infor- mation on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Various indices of water avail- ability are derived to compare the resource with the demand. Application of climate change scenarios, combined with population projections and possible water demand changes due to economic development, allows a range of scenarios of future water resources to be examined. This approach has been applied to a region covering 20 countries in eastern and southern Africa to provide a detailed picture of the status of water resources (Meigh et al., 1999), showing that water scarcity is likely to increase, and identifying the particular parts of the region most at risk. An additional potential influence on hydrology is land use change, and recent developments of the GWAVA approach include the ability to model this impact. The model is being applied over the whole of West Africa, a region where land use change is a significant issue and where major vegetation changes are ongoing (desertification in

  2. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment. Communications Industry. Phase IV. Impact Assessment.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-02-21

    cminI~auo W" - ŕI 00 7.Twulmal C Iatso’m 3d 441 000-033 ,0 ACUMENICS TitI 6 am 40" * ,-0- ;4-0 I~* O~o w - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ A Im0 fam 1Wa0 ~-~- W~~ "ttMmq4w...Comparison Year NAS Stage A Model 3d 1976 Upgraded 3rd, Phase I 1980 Upgraded 3rd, Phase II 1985 I ACUMENICS 62 (7 The above comparisons are picked on...Upgraded 3rd, Phase I a. Flight Plan Error Correction by Source b. Automatic Clearance Coordination c. Conflict-Free Clearances, including 2D/ 3D RNAV d

  3. MODELING AIR POLLUTION FROM THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD TRADE CENTER AND ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON HUMAN EXPOSURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and the Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI) have been working together under a University Partnership Agreement to develop improved methods for human exposure modeling. This partnership was ongo...

  4. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  5. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.

  6. Spatial- and time-explicit human damage modeling of ozone depleting substances in life cycle impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Struijs, Jaap; van Dijk, Arjan; Slaper, Harry; van Wijnen, Harm J; Velders, Guus J M; Chaplin, George; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2010-01-01

    Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is mainly caused by emissions of persistent halocarbons of anthropogenic origin. The resulting increase of solar ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface is associated with increased exposure of humans and increased human health damage. Here we assessed the change in human health damage caused by three types of skin cancer and cataract in terms of (healthy) years of life lost per kiloton emission reduction of an ozone-depleting substance (ODS). This so-called characterization factor is used in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Characterization factors are provided for the emissions of five chlorofluorocarbons, three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, three (bromine-containing) halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and anthropogenic emissions of methyl bromide. We employed dynamic calculations on a global scale for this purpose, taking physical and social geographic data into account such as skin tones, population density, average age, and life expectancy. When emission rates of all ODSs in 2007 are multiplied by our characterization factors, the resulting number of years of life lost may be a factor of 5 higher than reported previously. This increase is merely explained through the global demographic development until 2100 we took into account.

  7. Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess the impact of megacity pollution export at the regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Coll, Isabelle; Meleux, Frederik; Menut, Laurent

    2010-05-01

    Investigations of the impact of megacities on the atmospheric environment benefit from a multiscale approach, because megacities provide a large part of the total anthropogenic emissions of trace species that have an impact on air quality at all scales. At the local scale, the accumulation of these primary compounds is responsible for severe respiratory problems and for the alteration of buildings. At the regional scale, they lead to the formation of secondary compounds such as ozone or organic particulate matter witch - in addition to their adverse effects of health - have an impact on the climate equilibrium. Bridging the local and regional scales in a dynamic fashion would thus improve the characterisation of local pollution export from megacities and their regional impact. One of the main objectives of the CityZen project is to assess the interactions between spatial scales. This paper contributes to this activity with a focus on local to regional exchanges. The spatial interactions are often represented through off-line coupling of Chemistry Transport Models (CTM). The interactions from the global to the regional scale are well represented by state-of-the-art nested models. However the off-line coupling from the local to the regional and continental scales introduces a bias in the representation of local plumes on the chemistry of the larger scale. Such phenomena can be captured by means of two way nesting in a coupled model or data assimilation. But these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of an alternative multiscale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method consists in the introduction of local zooms over megacities in a continental chemistry-transport simulation within a single grid with variable resolution. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (~1km resolution) to the continental area (~50km resolution). The CHIMERE grid being regular

  8. An assessment model for atmospheric composition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    Predicting future perturbations to global air quality and climate requires, as a prerequisite, prognostic models for the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Such assessment models are needed to evaluate the impact on our environment of different social choices that affect emissions of the photochemically and radiatively important trace gases. Our presentation here of a prototype assessment model is intended to encourage public scientific discussions of the necessary components of the model and their interactions, with the recognition that models similar to this will likely be used by the Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory agencies in order to assess the effect of changes in atmospheric composition on climate over the next century.

  9. Modeling and assessing nitrogen delivery in the Calapooia River Watershed, and the impact of small streams delivery on downstream watershed

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Calapooia River is a major tributary to the Willamette River in western Oregon, which is characterized by a mountainous forested upland and a flat agricultural lowland. Here we report on a modeling study of watershed’s N budget, and quantify the influence of different...

  10. The impact of floods and storms on the acoustic reflectivity of the inner continental shelf: A modeling assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratson, Lincoln F.; Hutton, E.W.H.; Kettner, A.J.; Syvitski, J.P.M.; Hill, P.S.; George, D.A.; Milligan, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    Flood deposition and storm reworking of sediments on the inner shelf can change the mixture of grain sizes on the seabed and thus its porosity, bulk density, bulk compressional velocity and reflectivity. Whether these changes are significant enough to be detectable by repeat sub-bottom sonar surveys, however, is uncertain. Here the question is addressed through numerical modeling. Episodic flooding of a large versus small river over the course of a century are modeled with HYDROTREND using the drainage basin characteristics of the Po and Pescara Rivers (respectively). A similarly long stochastic record of storms offshore of both rivers is simulated from the statistics of a long-term mooring recording of waves in the western Adriatic Sea. These time series are then input to the stratigraphic model SEDFLUX2D, which simulates flood deposition and storm reworking on the inner shelf beyond the river mouths. Finally, annual changes in seabed reflectivity across these shelf regions are computed from bulk densities output by SEDFLUX2D and compressional sound speeds computed from mean seafloor grain size using the analytical model of Buckingham [1997. Theory of acoustic attenuation, dispersion, and pulse propagation in unconsolidated granular materials including marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 102, 2579-2596; 1998. Theory of compressional and shear waves in fluidlike marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 103, 288-299; 2000. Wave propagation, stress relaxation, and grain-tograin shearing in saturated, unconsolidated marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 108, 2796-2815]. The modeling predicts reflectivities that change from 9 dB for muds farther offshore, values that agree with reflectivity measurements for these sediment types. On local scales of ???100 m, however, maximum changes in reflectivity are <0.5 dB. So are most annual changes in reflectivity over all water depths modeled (i.e., 0-35 m

  11. Assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2013-12-01

    The response of watershed erosion rates to changes in climate is expected to be highly non-linear and thus demands for mechanistic approaches to improve our understanding of the underlying causes. In this study, the integrated geomorphic component tRIBS-Erosion of the physically-based, spatially distributed hydrological model, tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator, is used to analyze the sensitivity of small semi-arid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. Observed historic climate and downscaled realizations of general circulation models from CMIP3 inform the stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN (Advanced WEather GENerator), which is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the past historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) area in the Southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of CMIP3 multi-model climate change projections. The climate ensembles are used as forcing input to the hydrogeomorphic model that is applied to seven headwater basins of WGEW. The basin response in terms of runoff and sediment yield for climate ensembles representative of the historic past and future is simulated and probabilistic inferences on future changes in catchment runoff and sediment transport are drawn. The application of the model to multiple catchments also identifies the scaling relationship between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area. The study reveals that geomorphic differences among catchments influence the variability of sediment yield, as affected by possible future climates, much more as compared to runoff, which is instead strongly dominated by the climate forcing. Despite a large uncertainty inherent to climate change projections and imposed by the stochastic climate variability, the basin sediment yield is predicted to decrease

  12. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

  13. Untapped potential of health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  14. Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Peter J.; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J.

    2010-09-01

    Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Geoengineering may ameliorate many consequences of global warming but also has the potential to drive regional climates outside the envelope of greenhouse-gas induced warming, creating ‘novel’ conditions, and could affect precipitation in some regions disproportionably. Here, using a fully coupled climate model we explore some new methodologies for assessing regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Taking a 4 × CO2 climate and an idealized ‘sunshade’ SRM strategy, we consider different fractions of the maximum theoretical, 4 × CO2-cancelling global mean cooling. Whilst regional predictions in particularly relatively low resolution global climate models must be treated with caution, our simulations indicate that it might be possible to identify a level of SRM geoengineering capable of meeting multiple targets, such as maintaining a stable mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and cooling global climate, but without reducing global precipitation below pre-industrial or exposing significant fractions of the Earth to ‘novel’ climate conditions.

  15. Community Level Impact Assessment--Extension Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Mike D.; Doeksen, Gerald A.

    Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

  16. A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

    In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

  17. Empirical, probabilistic, and modelling approaches to assess cross-media impacts to marine sediments at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard

    SciTech Connect

    Rohrer, W.L.; Vita, C.L.; Schrock, W.; Leicht, G.

    1996-12-31

    Dredge spoils, industrial fill, and liquid wastes from the 1940s to 1970s have resulted in inorganic and organic contamination of soils, groundwater, and marine sediments near the U.S.S. Missouri and Charleston Beach parking lots at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), in Bremerton, Washington. Extensive collection of environmental data from several studies including the recently completed Remedial Investigation conducted under CERCLA have confirmed contaminant levels above federal risk screening levels and state regulatory criteria for several heavy metals and organic compounds, including pesticides and PCBs. Although the correlation between contamination in marine sediments and those in on-shore fill appears to be strong, there is little evidence that a viable transport pathway currently exists from soils to groundwater and thence to sediments. Several methods used to estimate chemical mass flux from soil to groundwater to sediments and marine waters of Sinclair Inlet are corroborative in this regard. Nonetheless, this result is vexing because present groundwater concentrations exceed ARARs, yet are below levels of concern in terms of mass flux to marine waters. Despite the marginal risks posed by groundwater, various remedial alternatives, including perimeter containment using a subsurface waste-stabilized containment wall, were evaluated to determine whether chemical flux could be reduced to levels below those observed at the present time. Three-dimensional flow modelling and transport modelling also confirmed that chemical fluxes were limited in magnitude and could be addressed with more conventional remedial approaches.

  18. Impact assessment of chromite mining on groundwater through simulation modeling study in Sukinda chromite mining area, Orissa, India.

    PubMed

    Dhakate, Ratnakar; Singh, V S; Hodlur, G K

    2008-12-30

    The pre-Cambrian chromites ore deposits in Sukinda valley, Jajpur District, Orissa, India, are well known for chromite ore deposits. The exploitation of the ore is carried out through open cast mining method since the last few decades. In the process, the overburden and ore dumps are stored on ground surface, where leaching of chromite and other toxic element takes place particularly during monsoon seasons. This leachate may cause threat to groundwater in the vicinity. An integrated approach has been adopted to evaluate possibility of pollution due to mine seepage and leachate migration on groundwater regime. The approach involves geophysical, hydrogeological, hydro-chemical and aquifer modeling studies. The investigation has the significance as many habitats surround the mining area facing groundwater problems.

  19. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations. PMID:24188173

  20. Assessing the Regional Disparities in Geoengineering impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, P. J.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Lunt, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    maintaining a stable mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and cooling global climate, but without reducing global precipitation below pre-industrial or exposing significant fractions of the Earth to ‘novel’ climate conditions [Irvine et al., 2009]. The HadCM3L simulations carried out for this work include a pre-industrial control, a simulation with 4xCO2, and 10 simulations with 4xCO2 and different levels of SRM geoengineering ranging from 10% to 100% of a full intervention sufficient to cool the climate to pre-industrial average surface air temperature. Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S. A. Spall, and I. J. Totterdell (2000), Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408(6809), 184-187. Govindasamy, B., K. Caldeira, and P. B. Duffy (2003), Geoengineering Earth's radiation balance to mitigate climate change from a quadrupling of CO2, Global and Planetary Change, 37(1-2), 157-168. Irvine, P. J., D. J. Lunt, E. J. Stone, and A. Ridgwell (2009), The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world, Environmental Research Letters, 4(4). Irvine, P., A. Ridgwell, and D. Lunt (2010), Assessing the Regional Disparities in Geoengineering Impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044447, in press

  1. Assessing Leonid Meteoroid Impact Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Aleck L.

    2000-10-01

    The Leonid meteoroid storm produced by the passage of its parent comet, 55p/Tempel-Tuttle has been a concern for satellite operators. The recent close approach of the comet to the Earth took place around January 17, 1998. The debris cloud was expected to be several hundred to several thousand times higher than normal in the ensuing years when the Earth passes by the comet trail. Leonid meteoroid storm intensity was predicted before by analyses for satellite mission planning. The low observed Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR) displayed in 1998 was due to the large distance between the particle and the Earth. In 1998, all of the Leonid material was located interior to the Earth's orbit at distances greater than 0.004 AU. In 1999 there will be two streams located interior to the Earth orbit; the first, consisting of material ejected from the comet in 1932, will be 0.0016 AU from the Earth, and the second composed of material ejected from Tempel-Tuttle in 1965 at 0.004 AU. More importantly, there will exist a third stream of cometary debris, located just 0.0008 AU exterior to Earth's orbit. This stream will consist of the material ejected in 1899, and its close proximity to the Earth means that the space shall be subjected to a Gaussian-like Leonid environment. The predicted probability indicates that there will certainly be a storm with ZHR higher than 1000 in November 1999. It is also likely that there will be another Leonid storm in 2000. A procedure to predict the number of hits by the meteoroids was developed using the ZHR prediction model and the orbit data of GEO communication satellites. The data include the attitude of the satellite and its projected area as a function of orbit position. The number and probability of hits are predicted for these satellites during the 1999 Leonid meteoroid storm. The worst case prediction is also included for comparison.

  2. Impact of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals in Life Cycle Assessment: A Novel Characterization Model Based on Measured Concentrations and Labor Hours.

    PubMed

    Kijko, Gaël; Margni, Manuele; Partovi-Nia, Vahid; Doudrich, Greg; Jolliet, Olivier

    2015-07-21

    According to Lim et al., based on World Health Organization (WHO) data, hazardous chemicals in the workplace are responsible for over 370,000 premature deaths annually. Despite these high figures, life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) does not yet include a fully operational method to consider occupational impacts in its scope over the entire supply chain. This paper describes a novel approach to account for occupational exposure to chemicals by inhalation in LCA. It combines labor statistics and measured occupational concentrations of chemicals from the OSHA database to calculate operational LCIA characterization factors (i.e., intakes per hour worked and impact intensities for 19,069 organic chemical/sector combinations with confidence intervals across the entire U.S. manufacturing industry). For the seven chemicals that most contribute to the global impact, measured workplace concentrations range between 5 × 10(-4) and 3 × 10(3) mg/m(3). Carcinogenic impacts range over 4 orders of magnitude, from 1.3 × 10(-8) and up to 3.4 × 10(-4) DALY per blue-collar worker labor hour. The innovative approach set out in this paper assesses health impacts from occupational exposure to chemicals with population exposure to outdoor emissions, making it possible to integrate occupational exposure within LCIA. It broadens the LCIA scope to analyze hotspots and avoid impact shifting.

  3. [Multiple imputation and complete case analysis in logistic regression models: a practical assessment of the impact of incomplete covariate data].

    PubMed

    Camargos, Vitor Passos; César, Cibele Comini; Caiaffa, Waleska Teixeira; Xavier, Cesar Coelho; Proietti, Fernando Augusto

    2011-12-01

    Researchers in the health field often deal with the problem of incomplete databases. Complete Case Analysis (CCA), which restricts the analysis to subjects with complete data, reduces the sample size and may result in biased estimates. Based on statistical grounds, Multiple Imputation (MI) uses all collected data and is recommended as an alternative to CCA. Data from the study Saúde em Beagá, attended by 4,048 adults from two of nine health districts in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, in 2008-2009, were used to evaluate CCA and different MI approaches in the context of logistic models with incomplete covariate data. Peculiarities in some variables in this study allowed analyzing a situation in which the missing covariate data are recovered and thus the results before and after recovery are compared. Based on the analysis, even the more simplistic MI approach performed better than CCA, since it was closer to the post-recovery results.

  4. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  5. Nanotechnologies: Risk assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacobbe, F.; Monica, L.; Geraci, D.

    2009-05-01

    The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ("low", "middle" and "high" level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.

  6. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Veerman, J; Barendregt, J; Mackenbach, J

    2005-01-01

    Study objective: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. Design: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health (exposure impact assessment) and (2) methods used to quantify health outcomes resulting from changes in exposure to determinants (outcome assessment). Main results: Of 98 prospective HIA studies, 17 reported quantitative estimates of change in exposure to determinants, and 16 gave quantified health outcomes. Eleven (categories of) determinants were quantified up to the level of health outcomes. Methods for exposure impact assessment were: estimation on the basis of routine data and measurements, and various kinds of modelling of traffic related and environmental factors, supplemented with experts' estimates and author's assumptions. Some studies used estimates from other documents pertaining to the policy. For the calculation of health outcomes, variants of epidemiological and toxicological risk assessment were used, in some cases in mathematical models. Conclusions: Quantification is comparatively rare in HIA. Methods are available in the areas of environmental health and, to a lesser extent, traffic accidents, infectious diseases, and behavioural factors. The methods are diverse and their reliability and validity are uncertain. Research and development in the following areas could benefit quantitative HIA: methods to quantify the effect of socioeconomic and behavioural determinants; user friendly simulation models; the use of summary measures of public health, expert opinion and scenario building; and empirical research into validity and reliability. PMID:15831683

  7. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  8. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  9. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  10. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C W

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  12. Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

    SciTech Connect

    Athalye, Rahul A.; Sivaraman, Deepak; Elliott, Douglas B.; Liu, Bing; Bartlett, Rosemarie

    2016-10-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO2 emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.

  13. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  14. Development and Evaluation of an Air Quality Modeling Approach to Assess Near-Field Impacts of Lead Emissions from Piston-Engine Aircraft Operating on Leaded Aviation Gasoline

    EPA Science Inventory

    Since aviation gasoline is now the largest remaining source of lead (Pb) emissions to the air in the United States, there is increased interest by regulatory agencies and the public in assessing the impacts on residents living in close proximity to these sources. An air quality m...

  15. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Li, Long

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  16. Let's put this in perspective: using dynamic simulation modelling to assess the impacts of farm-scale land management change on catchment-scale water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivers, Mark; Clarendon, Simon; Coles, Neil

    2013-04-01

    Natural Resource Management and Agri-industry development groups in Australia have invested considerable resources into the investigation of the economic, social and, particularly, environmental impacts of varying farming activities in a "catchment context". This research has resulted in the development of a much-improved understanding of the likely impacts of changed management practices at the farm-scale as well as the development of a number of conceptual models which place farming within this broader catchment context. The project discussed in this paper transformed a conceptual model of dairy farm phosphorus (P) management and transport processes into a more temporally and spatially dynamic model. This was then loaded with catchment-specific data and used as a "policy support tool" to allow the Australian dairy industry to examine the potential farm and catchment-scale impacts of varying dairy farm management practices within some key dairy farming regions. Models were developed, validated and calibrated using "STELLA©" dynamic modelling software for three catchments in which dairy is perceived as a significant land use. The models describe P movement and cycling within and through dairy farms in great detail and also estimate P transport through major source, sink and flow sectors of the catchments. A series of scenarios were executed for all three catchments which examined three main "groups" of tests: changes to farm P input rates; implementation of perceived environmental "Best Management Practices" (BMPs), and; changes to land use mosaics. Modifications to actual P input rates into dairy farms (not surprisingly) had a major effect on nutrient transport within and from the farms with a significant rise in nutrient loss rates at all scales with increasing fertiliser use. More surprisingly, however, even extensive environmental BMP implementation did not have marked effects on off-farm nutrient loss rates. On and off-farm riparian management implemented

  17. Minidoka Dam Wildlife Impact Assessment: Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Robert C.; Meuleman, G. Allyn

    1989-03-01

    A wildlife impact assessment has been developed for the US Bureau of Reclamation's Minidoka Dam and Reservoir in south central Idaho. This assessment was conducted to fulfill requirements of the Fish and Wildlife Program. Specific objectives of this study included the following: select target wildlife species, and identify their current status and management goals; estimate the net effects on target wildlife species resulting from hydroelectric development and operation; recommend protection, mitigation, and enhancement goals for target wildlife species affected by hydroelectric development and operation; and consult and coordinate impact assessment activities with the Northwest Power Planning Council, Bonneville Power Administration, US Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee, and other entities expressing interest in the project. 62 refs., 2 figs., 11 tabs.

  18. Applying social impact assessment to nursing research.

    PubMed

    Bradbury-Jones, Caroline; Taylor, Julie

    2014-08-05

    Many nurses need to construct a research proposal at some stage of their career and there are multiple texts that provide guidance on doing so. However, most texts do not provide explicit guidance on the issue of social impact--the effect of research on the social health and wellbeing of individuals, families and communities and on the improved performance of relevant services. This article proposes that social impact should be considered from the beginning of a research project. It outlines a framework for assessing social impact to help strengthen the quality of research proposals and assist nurses constructing the proposal and also those evaluating it, including academic assessors or funding body reviewers. Nursing research should be useful and should have a positive effect on practice. Focusing on social impact can increase the chances of this desirable outcome.

  19. Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

    2015-12-01

    INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of

  20. SkiSim - A semi-distributed model to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiger, R.

    2009-04-01

    -2000 is +1,4°C to +3,5°C in the B1 scenario, and from +1,2°C to 5,7°C in the A1B scenario. Precipitation change in the A1B scenario is between +5% and +10%, in B1 it is +5% to +20%. The synthetic daily data produced by LARS-WG is the input data for the ski season model. Temperature and precipitation are distributed for each 100m altitude band, ranging from the lowest to the highest point of the ski area. The ski season model produces results for the whole ski area and not just for one single point (e.g. the lowest point in a ski area). Thus it is possible to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking in much greater detail than in previous studies. Based on these results, the consequences for winter tourism destinations can be assessed. Following the methodology of Breiling et al. (1997, 2008), the contribution of winter tourism to the regional economy and the number employments in tourism serve as an indicator for the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change. In total 120 ski areas in North and South Tyrol are investigated in the running project. Results of three ski areas, different in size and altitude, will be presented. Sources: Abegg, B., S. Agrawala, Crick, F., de Montfalcon, A. (2007): Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, Climate Change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD: 25-60. Breiling, M., Charamza, P., Skage, O. (1997): Klimasensibilität österreichischer Bezirke mit besonderer Berücksichtigung des Wintertourismus. Rapport 1,Department of Landscape Planning Alnarp, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Breiling, M., Charamza, P.,Feilmayr, W. (2008): Klimasensibilität des Salzburger Wintertourismus nach Bezirken, TTL, TU Vienna. Kleindienst, H. (2000): Snow hydrological models as tools for snow cover assessment and water resources management, Bern. Phd. Scott, D., G. McBoyle, Minogue, A. (2007): Climate Change

  1. Interactive modeling of storm impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Rooijen, A.; Baart, F.; Roelvink, J. A.; Donchyts, G.; Scheel, F.; de Boer, W.

    2014-12-01

    In the past decades the impact of storms on the coastal zone has increasingly drawn the attention of policy makers and coastal planners, engineers and researchers. The mean reason for this interest is the high density of the world's population living near the ocean, in combination with climate change. Due to sea level rise and extremer weather conditions, many of the world's coastlines are becoming more vulnerable to the potential of flooding. Currently it is common practice to predict storm impact using physics-based numerical models. The numerical model utilizes several inputs (e.g. bathymetry, waves, surge) to calculate the impact on the coastline. Traditionally, the numerical modeller takes the following three steps: schematization/model setup, running and post-processing. This process generally has a total feedback time in the order of hours to days, and is suitable for so-called confirmatory modelling.However, often models are applied as an exploratory tool, in which the effect of e.g. different hydraulic conditions, or measures is investigated. The above described traditional work flow is not the most efficient method for exploratory modelling. Interactive modelling lets users adjust a simulation while running. For models typically used for storm impact studies (e.g. XBeach, Delft3D, D-Flow FM), the user can for instance change the storm surge level, wave conditions, or add a measure such as a nourishment or a seawall. The model will take the adjustments into account immediately, and will directly compute the effect. Using this method, tools can be developed in which stakeholders (e.g. coastal planners, policy makers) are in control and together evaluate ideas by interacting with the model. Here we will show initial results for interactive modelling with a storm impact model.

  2. 3D-Modeling of Vegetation from Lidar Point Clouds and Assessment of its Impact on Façade Solar Irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peronato, G.; Rey, E.; Andersen, M.

    2016-10-01

    The presence of vegetation can significantly affect the solar irradiation received on building surfaces. Due to the complex shape and seasonal variability of vegetation geometry, this topic has gained much attention from researchers. However, existing methods are limited to rooftops as they are based on 2.5D geometry and use simplified radiation algorithms based on view-sheds. This work contributes to overcoming some of these limitations, providing support for 3D geometry to include facades. Thanks to the use of ray-tracing-based simulations and detailed characterization of the 3D surfaces, we can also account for inter-reflections, which might have a significant impact on façade irradiation. In order to construct confidence intervals on our results, we modeled vegetation from LiDAR point clouds as 3D convex hulls, which provide the biggest volume and hence the most conservative obstruction scenario. The limits of the confidence intervals were characterized with some extreme scenarios (e.g. opaque trees and absence of trees). Results show that uncertainty can vary significantly depending on the characteristics of the urban area and the granularity of the analysis (sensor, building and group of buildings). We argue that this method can give us a better understanding of the uncertainties due to vegetation in the assessment of solar irradiation in urban environments, and therefore, the potential for the installation of solar energy systems.

  3. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  4. Cost Impact Assessment of Cost Accounting Practice Changes.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-09-01

    7A0-A092 434 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA F/0 5/1 COST IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF COST ACCOUNTING PRACTICE CHANGES.(UlNL S EP 80 J S ANDERSONUN CL...MNGER 4. TITLE (mod Su&CEI* I. Tyss[ of REPORT & 11.1110 Coyenea Cost Impact Assessment of Cost Accounting Master’ s Thesis; September Practice Chages... Accounting ," IICASB,’I "Audits," IV"DCASŕ "Decision Models." 20. ASTMAC T (CO.COuMMO 10 GW 0ewr 0 Ite 00404.....VI 0114 id..CEF of 001111 inmb,) *This

  5. Economic Impacts of Arts and Cultural Institutions: A Model for Assessment and a Case Study in Baltimore. Research Division Report #6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cwi, David; Lyall, Katherine

    This research project attempts to determine the economic effects of arts activities and cultural institutions on a local community (Baltimore, Maryland). This document contains an economic impact model that uses 30 equations to determine direct and secondary effects on businesses, government, and individuals and a case study of the model involving…

  6. Assessment by regional modelling of the impact of monopile foundations on the hydrodynamics and sediment transport: case of Courseulles-sur-Mer (France) wind farm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivier, Aurélie; Bennis, Anne-Claire; Pinon, Grégory; Magar, Vanesa; Gross, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Offshore monopile foundations of wind turbines modify hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local scale and also at regional scale. The aim of this work is to assess these changes and to parametrize them in a regional model. These modifications were previously evaluated using the regional circulation model MARS3D (Lazure and Dumas, 2008) in tests-cases (Rivier et al., 2014) using two approaches: in the first approach, monopiles are explicitly modelled in the mesh as dry cells and in the second approach a sub-grid parametrization which considers the drag force exerted by a monopile on the flow is used. The sub-grid parametrization is improved close to the bed in this paper by adding a drag force term in the momentum equations, source terms in the turbulence model and by increasing the bed shear stress at monopile location. Changes in hydrodynamics regime, especially near-bed, affect sediment transport regime and modifications due to monopiles on sediment dynamics is also investigated using the MARS3D sediment transport module (Le Hir et al., 2011) which solves the advection-diffusion equations. Test-cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France) where an offshore wind farm is planned to be built. Velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and bed thickness changes due to the monopile simulated by both approaches are compared to each other and to experimental measurements made in a flume at the University of Caen or to published data (e.g. Roulund et al., 2005; Dargahi,1989). Then the model is applied in a real configuration on an area including the future offshore wind farm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed along a tidal cycle. Currents increase at the side edge of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream the monopile. Turbulent kinetic

  7. Modeling of Hurricane Impacts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    terms on the RHS). The wave number k is obtained from the eikonal equations (e.g. Dingemans, 1993): ⎟⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜⎜ ⎝ ⎛ ∂ ∂ − ∂ ∂ −= ∂ ∂ + ∂ ∂ y k x k c xt...components and ω represents the absolute radial frequency. The RHS of the eikonal equations ensures the irrotationality of wave number vector field (pers...sandy coasts, especially during the 2004 and 2005 seasons have pointed at an urgent need to be able to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas and

  8. Assessing potential population impact of statin treatment for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in the USA: population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Quanhe; Zhong, Yuna; Gillespie, Cathleen; Merritt, Robert; Bowman, Barbara; George, Mary G; Flanders, W Dana

    2017-01-01

    Objective New cholesterol treatment guidelines from American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association recommend statin treatment for more of US population to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). It is important to assess how new guidelines may affect population-level health. This study assessed the impact of statin use for primary prevention of ASCVD under the new guidelines. Methods We used data from 2010 US Multiple Cause Mortality, Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) Linked Mortality File (1988–2006, n=8941) and NHANES 2005–2010 (n=3178) participants 40–75 years of age for the present study. Results Among 33.0 million adults meeting new guidelines for primary prevention of ASCVD, 8.8 million were taking statins; 24.2 million, including 7.7 million with diabetes, are eligible for statin treatment. If all those with diabetes used a statin, 2514 (95% CI 592 to 4142) predicted ASCVD deaths would be prevented annually with 482 (0 to 2239) predicted annual additional cases of myopathy based on randomised clinical trials (RCTs), and 11 801 (9251 to 14 916) using population-based study. Among 16.5 million without diabetes, 5425 (1276 to 8935) ASCVD deaths would be prevented annually with 16 406 (4922 to 26 250) predicted annual additional cases of diabetes and between 1030 (0 to 4791) and 24 302 (19 363 to 30 292) additional cases of myopathy based on RCTs and population-based study. Assuming 80% eligible population take statins with 80% medication adherence, among those without diabetes, the corresponding numbers were 3472 (817 to 5718) deaths, 10 500 (3150 to 16 800) diabetes, 660 (0 to 3066) myopathy (RCTs), and 15 554 (12 392 to 19 387) myopathy (population-based). The estimated total annual cost of statins use ranged from US$1.65 to US$6.5 billion if 100% of eligible population take statins. Conclusions This population-based modelling study focused on impact of statin use on

  9. Impact Assessment of Watershed in Desert Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhava Rao, V.; Hermon, R. R.; Kesava Rao, P.; Phanindra Kumar, T.

    2012-07-01

    Change detection from different temporal images usually based on reflectance on natural and human activity impact, using integrated GIS, Remote Sensing and image processing technologies enable impact assessment of watershed in desert region. A time series analysis of seasonal NDVI have been used to estimate net primary productivity, phonological characteristic of vegetative surface, length of growing season and dry drown periods (Ramsey et al., 1995). The study is designed to achieve the objectives to Study the changes in vegetation for selected watershed in a desert districts of Bhilwara, Barmer & Jaisalmer in Rajastan State of India, to identify the changes in density of vegetation, to assess the temporal changes and to assess the impact of the watershed, with an objective to conserve the soil erosion and harvest the rainwater in order to increase the ground water table, to improve the socio economic condition of the people and to stop the migration of the people from the villages in search of livelihood. These activities will have a direct impact on the crop production. The Changes in density of vegetation indicates the quantity of crop production and the growth of vegetation apart from crops and the conservation of land with out scrub/barren land to land with scrub. This gives an picture about the impact of watershed programme in increasing the vegetative cover. The temporal changes help in understanding the changes taken place in the watershed, and facilitate understand the positive as well as negative impacts of any decisions taken in the implementation. The extent and density and type of vegetation for the years, 2000,2004,2005,2007 and 2008, was studied and vegetation growth was analysed using GIS and Digital Image Processing techniques.

  10. Utility of fuzzy cross-impact simulation in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Parashar, A.; Paliwal, R.; Rambabu, P.

    1997-11-01

    Fuzzy cross-impact simulation is a qualitative technique, where interactions within a system are represented by a cross-impact matrix that includes linguistic elements. It can be used effectively to visualize dynamic evolution of a system. The utility of the fuzzy cross-impact simulation approach is: (1) in dealing with uncertainties in environment-development systems; (2) scoping cumulative effect assessment; and (3) integrating societal response structure in environment impact assessment. Use of the method is illustrated in a case concerning the textile industry in Indore, India. Consequences of policy alternatives for cleanup and pollution abatement are predicted in terms of environmental quality and quality of life, using the simulation model. The consequence analysis is used to arrive at preferred policy options.

  11. Probabilistic Assessment of Asteroid Impacts: Observations and Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Stanford Engineering Risk Research Group has developed a method for assessing the risks associated with asteroid impacts with the Earth. The model is intended to inform policy and decision makers who are charged with allocating limited resources to planetary defense missions. Our model and method have been used to perform baseline assessments of risk and compare options for mitigation. We extend that analysis to examine the risk reductions associated with observation missions that have been active over the last decade. We present the basic model, summarize our past work, describe our current results and findings, and examine the role of observations in reducing risks.

  12. Roles of social impact assessment practitioners

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Cecilia H.M. Ho, Wing-chung

    2015-01-15

    The effectiveness of social impact assessment (SIA) hinges largely on the capabilities and ethics of the practitioners, yet few studies have dedicated to discuss the expectations for these professionals. Recognising this knowledge gap, we employed the systemic review approach to construct a framework of roles of SIA practitioners from literature. Our conceptual framework encompasses eleven roles, namely project manager of SIA, practitioner of SIA methodologies, social researcher, social strategy developer, social impact management consultant, community developer, visionary, public involvement specialist, coordinator, SIA researcher, and educator. Although these roles have been stratified into three overarching categories, the project, community and SIA development, they are indeed interrelated and should be examined together. The significance of this study is threefold. First, it pioneers the study of the roles of SIA practitioners in a focused and systematic manner. Second, it informs practitioners of the expectations of them thereby fostering professionalism. Third, it prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment. - Highlights: • We adopt systematic review to construct a framework of roles of social impact assessment (SIA) practitioners from literature. • We use three overarching categorises to stratify the eleven roles we proposed. • This work is a novel attempt to study the work as a SIA practitioner and build a foundation for further exploration. • The framework informs practitioners of the expectations on them thus reinforcing professionalism. • The framework also prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment.

  13. Assessing Meaningful Impact: Moving Beyond the Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buxner, S.; Bass, K.; Castori, P.; Wenger, M.

    2014-07-01

    Evaluation of program impacts is an essential part of program implementation from proposal writing, justifying expenses to funders, making improvements to programs, and demonstrating the value of program to stakeholders. Often, funding agencies ask for metrics but may not ask for more substantive outcomes. Alternatively, funding agencies are now asking for more and more evidence of program impacts resulting in broad questions about the type of assessments that are most appropriate for program evaluation. Assessing meaningful impacts presents no one-size-fits-all solution for all programs. Appropriate assessment is based on program goals, audience, activitie s, and resources. Panelists led a discussion about how to choose meaningful assessment for different situations, presenting examples from their own work. One of the best indicators of the value of a teacher professional development workshop is whether teachers can apply what they have learned to their classroom practice. Kristin Bass spoke about her experience documenting classroom implementation for the Galileo Educator Network (GEN) professional development project.

  14. A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

  15. Assessment and regulation of odour impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicell, Jim A.

    Decades of experience support the inclusion of odours in the list of contaminant types that must be regulated by government. In many jurisdictions, odour impacts are regulated under the nuisance provisions of common law. However, the explicit conditions that establish whether a nuisance condition exists are not easily defined. Due to this shortcoming, there is a need to introduce objectivity into odour impact assessments and odour limits. While individual responses to odours are highly variable and can result in a variety of effects, generally the impacts of odours arise from a variety of interacting factors, collectively known as FIDOL: frequency, intensity, duration, offensiveness, and location. In view of the need to prevent or mitigate such impacts, an approach to odour regulation is proposed in which the protection of the public from odour impacts is accomplished based on the FIDOL approach. This involves the introduction of an objective odour limit, as follows: " Facilities that are identified as sources of potentially offensive odours shall ensure that the 10-min average concentration of odour resulting from all sources at the facility and determined in accordance with accepted procedures, shall be less than 1 odour unit 99.5% of the time at the most impacted sensitive receptor". It is argued that the proposed limit would provide the public with an understanding of the degree of protection from odours that is to be provided through regulations and would provide industries with a basis for designing their facilities to minimize impact at the design stage. Such limits would also provide industries with benchmarks against which they can gauge their success at preventing or mitigating odour impacts and for evaluating the effectiveness of odour control technologies.

  16. Gross national happiness as a framework for health impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Pennock, Michael; Ura, Karma

    2011-01-15

    The incorporation of population health concepts and health determinants into Health Impact Assessments has created a number of challenges. The need for intersectoral collaboration has increased; the meaning of 'health' has become less clear; and the distinctions between health impacts, environmental impacts, social impacts and economic impacts have become increasingly blurred. The Bhutanese concept of Gross National Happiness may address these issues by providing an over-arching evidence-based framework which incorporates health, social, environmental and economic contributors as well as a number of other key contributors to wellbeing such as culture and governance. It has the potential to foster intersectoral collaboration by incorporating a more limited definition of health which places the health sector as one of a number of contributors to wellbeing. It also allows for the examination of the opportunity costs of health investments on wellbeing, is consistent with whole-of-government approaches to public policy and emerging models of social progress.

  17. Environmental Impact Assessments: Congressional Intent Versus Application

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-04-01

    Sprankle U.S. Department of Energy Faculty Research Advisor Dr. Robert Copaken The Industrial College of the Armed Forces National Defense...Impact Assessments: Congressional Intent Versus Application Kenneth A. Sprankle U.S. Department of Energy Faculty Research Advisor Dr. Robert Copaken The...before them. This conference generated a flood of legislation. Then, in February, 1969, Representative John Dingell (D-MI) introduced H.R.6750 (later

  18. Methodology for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on land degradation at multiple scales: Use of high resolution satellite imagery, modelling, and ground measurements for the assessment in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Oumer

    In this study, a new multi-scalar methodology for assessing land degradation response to climate change is presented by analyzing 22 years of both climatic data and satellite observations, together with future projections from modelling, for Ethiopia. A comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on land degradation was performed as evidenced from the integration of a host of land degradation indicators, namely: normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP), crop yield, biomass, length of growing period (LGP), rainfall use efficiency (RUE), energy use efficiency (EUE) and aridity index (AI). The results from the national level assessment indicate that over the period of 1984-2006, NPP decreased overall. Degrading areas occupy 30% of the country and suffer an average loss of NPP 10.3 kg C ha-1 y-1. The crop yield prediction results indicate a wide range of outcomes is to be expected for the country, due to the heterogeneity of the agro-climatic resources as well as of projected climate change. The results of the sub-national level assessment show that about 29% of the Awash watershed is degrading, and these degrading areas experience an average loss of NPP 4.6 kg C ha-1 y-1. Further, about 33.8% of the degrading area in the watershed is associated with bare land and 25% with agricultural land. Finally, since remotely sensed estimates are frequently used to assess land degradation at multiple scales, scale transfer methods are evaluated in this study to provide a tool to rank both upscaling and downscaling procedures.

  19. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-09-16

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated.

  20. Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

    2014-06-01

    This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

  1. Using computational modeling to assess the impact of clinical decision support on cancer screening improvement strategies within the community health centers.

    PubMed

    Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A

    2014-10-01

    Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman's Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability.

  2. Health impact assessment of liquid biofuel production.

    PubMed

    Fink, Rok; Medved, Sašo

    2013-01-01

    Bioethanol and biodiesel as potential substitutes for fossil fuels in the transportation sector have been analyzed for environmental suitability. However, there could be impacts on human health during the production, therefore adverse health effects have to be analyzed. The aim of this study is to analyze to what health risk factors humans are exposed to in the production of biofuels and what the size of the health effects is. A health impact assessment expressed as disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was conducted in SimaPro 7.1 software. The results show a statistically significant lower carcinogenic impact of biofuels (p < 0.05) than fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the impact of organic respirable compounds is smaller for fossil fuels (p < 0.05) than for biofuels. Analysis of inorganic compounds like PM₁₀,₂.₅, SO₂ or NO(x) shows some advantages of sugar beet bioethanol and soybean biodiesel production (p < 0.05), although production of sugarcane bioethanol shows larger impacts of respirable inorganic compounds than for fossil fuels (p < 0.001). Although liquid biofuels are made of renewable energy sources, this does not necessary mean that they do not represent any health hazards.

  3. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  4. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: a preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01

    In this preliminary and relatively short modeling effort, an initial assessment is made for the potential air quality implications of climate change in California. The focus is mainly on the effects of changes in temperature and related meteorological and emission factors on ozone formation. Photochemical modeling is performed for two areas in the state: the Los Angeles Basin and the Sacramento Valley.

  5. PROFILE: Integrating Sustainability and Environmental Impact Assessment

    PubMed

    LAWRENCE

    1997-01-01

    / Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been identified as an important instrument for facilitating sustainability. However, to do so requires the integration of sustainability into EIA theory and practice. The sustainability concept is a valid and important environmental management perspective. However, many issues and obstacles need to be addressed further if the concept is to be translated into practical strategies. Sustainability can potentially infuse EIA with a clearer sense of direction, an ethical foundation, a mechanism for establishing priorities and assessing choices, and a means of linking EIA to other environmental management instruments. Conceptually, EIA and sustainability can be integrated, but frameworks should be refined, adpated to context, and linked to related initiatives. Sustainability should be explicitly incorporated into EIA legislation, guidelines, and institutional arrangements. An experimental approach to testing, assessing, and sharing experiences is suggested.A framework is first presented that defines and characterizes the sustainability concept. A further framework is then described for integrating sustainability into EIA at the conceptual level. The integration of sustainability and EIA at the regulatory level is next addressed through an overview of sustainability initiatives in EIA requirements in Canada. The Canadian examples include many promising initiatives but these and other experiences will need to be monitored, shared, and integrated into comprehensive environmental management strategies. Finally, means of incorporating sustainability into each activity in the EIA planning process are identified.KEY WORDS: Sustainability; Environmental impact assessment

  6. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  7. Modeling dynamics of (137)Cs in forest surface environments: Application to a contaminated forest site near Fukushima and assessment of potential impacts of soil organic matter interactions.

    PubMed

    Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Koarashi, Jun

    2016-05-01

    A process-based model for (137)Cs transfer in forest surface environments was developed to assess the dynamic behavior of Fukushima-derived (137)Cs in a Japanese forest. The model simulation successfully reproduced the observed data from 3year migration of (137)Cs in the organic and mineral soil layers at a contaminated forest near Fukushima. The migration of (137)Cs from the organic layer to the mineral soil was explained by the direct deposition pattern on the forest floor and the turnover of litter materials in the organic layer under certain ecological conditions. Long-term predictions indicated that more than 90% of the deposited (137)Cs would remain within the top 5cm of the soil for up to 30years after the accident, suggesting that the forest acts as an effective long-term reservoir of (137)Cs with limited transfer via the groundwater pathway. The model was also used to explore the potential impacts of soil organic matter (SOM) interactions on the mobility and bioavailability of (137)Cs in the soil-plant system. The simulation results for hypothetical organic soils with modified parameters of (137)Cs turnover revealed that the SOM-induced reduction of (137)Cs adsorption elevates the fraction of dissolved (137)Cs in the soil solution, thereby increasing the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs without substantially altering the fractional distribution of (137)Cs in the soil. Slower fixation of (137)Cs on the flayed edge site of clay minerals and enhanced mobilization of the clay-fixed (137)Cs in organic-rich soils also appeared to elevate the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs by increasing the fraction of the soil-adsorbed (exchangeable) (137)Cs. A substantial proportion (approximate 30%-60%) of (137)Cs in these organic-rich soils was transferred to layers deeper than 5cm decades later. These results suggested that SOM influences the behavior of (137)Cs in forests over a prolonged period through alterations of adsorption and fixation in the soil.

  8. Quantitative Assessment of the Potential of Afforestation for Carbon Dioxide Removal: Evaluating carbon sequestration and biogeophysical impacts in a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Littleton, E. W.

    2015-12-01

    This study presents a new method for representing permanent afforestation in Earth System models. Afforestation has attracted interest as an option to help to slow or reverse the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the next century. However, its potential is poorly constrained with regard to land availability, rates of tree growth and carbon accumulation, and potential side effects. This study aims to provide quantitative assessment of the carbon removal potential and side effects of 21st century afforestation using a dynamic global vegetation model, in contrast to the majority of previous estimates which have used bookkeeping methods. The land surface model JULES was used to simulate needleleaf afforestation on abandoned agricultural land during the 21st century under two future pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These results are compared to a control scenario in which natural succession is allowed to act on the same area of land. This study finds considerable spatial variation in the final carbon sequestration potential of afforestation sites. In addition to dieback and marginal growth in many regions, many sites showed minimal additionality of forest areas compared to natural succession. The most suitable sites were in Eastern Europe, central China and central North America. There was no major difference in the general spatial pattern of suitability between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2100. Overall, this study produced a significantly smaller estimate of the CDR potential of permanent afforestation than previous studies have. The additional carbon stored in suitable sites by 2100 was only 19 Pg C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 Pg C (RCP8.5), a mean of 68 tC/ha. This research also explored the biogeophysical impacts of afforestation on surface energy balance and hydrological cycles. The decrease in albedo caused by afforestation significantly offset the radiative forcing benefits of the carbon removal, although this effect was very sensitive to input assumptions. Flooding results

  9. Injury Risk Assessment of Non-Lethal Projectile Head Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as “force wall approach” suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the “force wall approach” and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics. PMID:25400712

  10. Injury risk assessment of non-lethal projectile head impacts.

    PubMed

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as "force wall approach" suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the "force wall approach" and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics.

  11. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  12. Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L

    2004-11-01

    Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4 degrees x 5 degrees resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.

  13. Elements of impact assessment: a case study with cyber attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Shanchieh Jay; Holsopple, Jared; Liu, Daniel

    2009-05-01

    Extensive discussions have taken place in recent year regarding impact assessment - what is it and how can we do it? It is especially intriguing in this modern era where non-traditional warfare has caused either information overload or limited understanding of adversary doctrines. This work provides a methodical discussion of key elements for the broad definition of impact assessment (IA). The discussion will start with a process flow involving components related to IA. Two key functional components, impact estimation and threat projection, are compared and illustrated in detail. These details include a discussion of when to model red and blue knowledge. Algorithmic approaches will be discussed, augmented with lessons learned from our IA development for cyber situation awareness. This paper aims at providing the community with a systematic understanding of IA and its open issues with specific examples.

  14. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  15. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  16. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  17. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  18. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  19. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  20. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction on... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact....

  1. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Aircraft impact assessment. 50.150 Section 50.150 Energy... Standards for Licenses, Certifications, and Regulatory Approvals § 50.150 Aircraft impact assessment. (a...-specific assessment of the effects on the facility of the impact of a large, commercial aircraft....

  2. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Aircraft impact assessment. 50.150 Section 50.150 Energy... Standards for Licenses, Certifications, and Regulatory Approvals § 50.150 Aircraft impact assessment. (a...-specific assessment of the effects on the facility of the impact of a large, commercial aircraft....

  3. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Aircraft impact assessment. 50.150 Section 50.150 Energy... Standards for Licenses, Certifications, and Regulatory Approvals § 50.150 Aircraft impact assessment. (a...-specific assessment of the effects on the facility of the impact of a large, commercial aircraft....

  4. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Aircraft impact assessment. 50.150 Section 50.150 Energy... Standards for Licenses, Certifications, and Regulatory Approvals § 50.150 Aircraft impact assessment. (a...-specific assessment of the effects on the facility of the impact of a large, commercial aircraft....

  5. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Aircraft impact assessment. 50.150 Section 50.150 Energy... Standards for Licenses, Certifications, and Regulatory Approvals § 50.150 Aircraft impact assessment. (a...-specific assessment of the effects on the facility of the impact of a large, commercial aircraft....

  6. Assessing the environmental impacts of aircraft noise and emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahashabde, Anuja; Wolfe, Philip; Ashok, Akshay; Dorbian, Christopher; He, Qinxian; Fan, Alice; Lukachko, Stephen; Mozdzanowska, Aleksandra; Wollersheim, Christoph; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Locke, Maryalice; Waitz, Ian A.

    2011-01-01

    With the projected growth in demand for commercial aviation, many anticipate increased environmental impacts associated with noise, air quality, and climate change. Therefore, decision-makers and stakeholders are seeking policies, technologies, and operational procedures that balance environmental and economic interests. The main objective of this paper is to address shortcomings in current decision-making practices for aviation environmental policies. We review knowledge of the noise, air quality, and climate impacts of aviation, and demonstrate how including environmental impact assessment and quantifying uncertainties can enable a more comprehensive evaluation of aviation environmental policies. A comparison is presented between the cost-effectiveness analysis currently used for aviation environmental policy decision-making and an illustrative cost-benefit analysis. We focus on assessing a subset of the engine NO X emissions certification stringency options considered at the eighth meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection. The FAA Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) is employed to conduct the policy assessments. We show that different conclusions may be drawn about the same policy options depending on whether benefits and interdependencies are estimated in terms of health and welfare impacts versus changes in NO X emissions inventories as is the typical practice. We also show that these conclusions are sensitive to a variety of modeling uncertainties. While our more comprehensive analysis makes the best policy option less clear, it represents a more accurate characterization of the scientific and economic uncertainties underlying impacts and the policy choices.

  7. Environmental impact assessment in Estonia and Norway

    SciTech Connect

    Holm-Hansen, J.

    1997-11-01

    Authorities in Eastern European countries are looking for best available policy tools from the West, and policy instruments tailored for a Western context are being introduced massively in the former state socialist countries of Europe. This study examines some of the contextual factors that hamper the introduction of modern, Western tools of environmental management within previously state socialist countries. These are highlighted through a comparison of how environmental impact assessment (EIA) is put into practice in Estonia and Norway. Estonia and Norway belong to the same European Baltic-Nordic region, but the two countries have a dramatically different history for most of this century.

  8. Tsunami Forecast Technology for Asteroid Impact Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.

    2015-12-01

    Over 75% of all historically documented tsunamis have been generated by earthquakes. As the result, all existing Tsunami Warning and Forecast systems focus almost exclusively on detecting, warning and forecasting earthquake-generated tsunamis.The sequence of devastating tsunamis across the globe over the past 10 years has significantly heightened awareness and preparation activities associated with these high-impact events. Since the catastrophic 2004 Sumatra tsunami, NOAA has invested significant efforts in modernizing the U.S. tsunami warning system. Recent developments in tsunami modeling capability, inundation forecasting, sensing networks, dissemination capability and local preparation and mitigation activities have gone a long way toward enhancing tsunami resilience within the United States. The remaining quarter of the tsunami hazard problem is related to other mechanisms of tsunami generation, that may not have received adequate attention. Among those tsunami sources, the asteroid impact may be the most exotic, but possible one of the most devastating tsunami generation mechanisms. Tsunami forecast capabilities that have been developed for the tsunami warning system can be used to explore both, hazard assessment and the forecast of a tsunami generated by the asteroid impact. Existing tsunami flooding forecast technology allows for forecast for non-seismically generated tsunamis (asteroid impact, meteo-generated tsunamis, landslides, etc.), given an adequate data for the tsunami source parameters. Problems and opportunities for forecast of tsunamis from asteroid impact will be discussed. Preliminary results of impact-generated tsunami analysis for forecast and hazard assessment will be presented.

  9. The Health Impact Assessment (HIA) Resource and Tool ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a relatively new and rapidly emerging field in the U.S. An inventory of available HIA resources and tools was conducted, with a primary focus on resources developed in the U.S. The resources and tools available to HIA practitioners in the conduct of their work were identified through multiple methods and compiled into a comprehensive list. The compilation includes tools and resources related to the HIA process itself and those that can be used to collect and analyze data, establish a baseline profile, assess potential health impacts, and establish benchmarks and indicators for monitoring and evaluation. These resources include literature and evidence bases, data and statistics, guidelines, benchmarks, decision and economic analysis tools, scientific models, methods, frameworks, indices, mapping, and various data collection tools. Understanding the data, tools, models, methods, and other resources available to perform HIAs will help to advance the HIA community of practice in the U.S., improve the quality and rigor of assessments upon which stakeholder and policy decisions are based, and potentially improve the overall effectiveness of HIA to promote healthy and sustainable communities. The Health Impact Assessment (HIA) Resource and Tool Compilation is a comprehensive list of resources and tools that can be utilized by HIA practitioners with all levels of HIA experience to guide them throughout the HIA process. The HIA Resource

  10. FORHYCS - a coupled, spatially distributed eco-hydrological model for assessing climate and land use change impact in Switzerland at landscape scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speich, Matthias; Lischke, Heike; Scherstjanoi, Marc; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2016-04-01

    Various modeling studies have shown that global climate and land use change are expected to have important impacts on the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of European mountainous regions. However, these models focus on either hydrological or ecological processes, while the respective other processes are represented in a simplified manner, e.g. using static parameters or empirical process formulations. This way, dynamic feedbacks between the water cycle and forest dynamics are neglected, which can influence long-term predictions. Integration of dynamic hydrological and ecological models increases the confidence in long-term forecasts by explicitly addressing this feedback. We present FORHYCS, a spatially distributed, coupled eco-hydrological model. FORHYCS is designed for application in temperate and Alpine regions at landscape scale, and consists of the integration of the rainfall-runoff model PREVAH and the forest-landscape model TreeMig. Both these models have previously been used in long-term climate impact studies in Switzerland. In the new, coupled model, both individual models are run simultaneously while exchanging information via a set of interface variables. The forest-landscape model is driven by annual bioclimatic variables (drought stress, snow cover duration, degree-day sum and winter chill), which are obtained through yearly integration of the local water balance as calculated by the hydrological model at an hourly time step. Growth, establishment and mortality of tree species, as simulated by the forest-landscape model, are used to calculate vegetation parameters (leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover), which in turn influence the partitioning of precipitation into interception loss, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture storage and runoff. Furthermore, the vegetation cover in each grid cell is used to determine and update its land cover class, which allows the simulation of forest advancement or retreat and its hydrological

  11. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  12. Assessing the Impact of the Cambridge International Acceleration Program on U.S. University Determinants of Success: A Multi-Level Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Stuart; Warren, Jayne; Gill, Tim

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the research being conducted by Cambridge International Examinations (Cambridge) to ensure that its international assessments prepare students as well as other acceleration programs for continued study in U.S. colleges and universities. The study, which builds on previous freshman GPA data modeling work using data supplied…

  13. Developing public sociology through health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Eva; Williams, Gareth

    2008-11-01

    The renewed interest in 'public sociology' has sparked debate and discussion about forms of sociological work and their relationship to the State and civil society. Medical sociologists are accustomed to engaging with a range of publics and audiences inside and outside universities and are in a position to make an informed contribution to this debate. This paper describes how some of the debates about sociological work are played out through a 'health impact assessment' of a proposed housing renewal in a former coal mining community. We explore the dynamics of the health impact assessment process and relate it to wider debates, current in the social sciences, on the 'new knowledge spaces' within which contentious public issues are now being discussed, and the nature of different forms of expertise. The role of the 'public sociologist' in mediating the relationships between the accounts and interpretations of lay participants and the published 'evidence' is described as a process of mutual learning between publics, professionals and social scientists. It is argued that the continued existence and development of any meaningful 'professional sociology' requires an openness to a 'public sociology' which recognises and responds to new spaces of knowledge production.

  14. Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure. Segments of the South Fork and some of its tributaries exceed temperature criteria established for the protection of cold-water salmonid populations, and were listed on Washington State’s Clean Water Act (CWA) 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy impacts. This qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork. It also evaluates the effectiveness of restoration tools that address Pacific salmon recovery.

  15. Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

  16. Groundwater resources impact assessment for triazine herbicides

    SciTech Connect

    Waldman, E.; Barrett, M.R.; Behl, E.

    1996-10-01

    The Environmental Fate and Ground Water Branch of EPA`s Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) has conducted a Water Resources Impact Assessment of the potential for triazine herbicides to be transported to ground and surface waters (only ground-water is discussed in this paper). The herbicides discussed in this document include atrazine, cyanazine, simazine, and prometon. Part of OPP`s regulatory mission is to prevent contamination of ground and surface water resources resulting from the normal use of registered pesticides. OPP has recently produced several resource documents to support such activities at the federal, state, and local levels (e.g., the Pesticides and Ground-Water Strategy and the Pesticides in Ground Water Database). This Water Resources Impact Assessment will also be useful in assisting state and regional agencies in customizing risk reduction strategies and to implement proposed pollution prevention measures. Major conclusions include: Atrazine is the most frequently detected pesticide in ground water in virtually the entire Midwestern United States, and especially in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. The Pesticides in Ground Water Database 1992 Report indicates that atrazine has been detected in 32 out of the 40 states that have reported monitoring data, and in 1,512 wells (6%) of the wells sampled. Based on EPA`s National Pesticide Survey (NPS), 4.7% of rural domestic drinking water wells in the U.S. (490,000 wells) are estimated to contain atrazine, mostly at concentrations less than 0.12 {mu}g/L (the MCL for atrazine is 3 {mu}g/L). Triazine herbicides other than atrazine (simazine, cyanazine, and prometon) have had much less impact on ground-water quality than atrazine, primarily because they are less intensively used.

  17. A comparison between monitoring and dispersion modeling approaches to assess the impact of aviation on concentrations of black carbon and nitrogen oxides at Los Angeles International Airport.

    PubMed

    Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Tripodis, Yorghos; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Levy, Jonathan I

    2015-09-15

    Aircraft activity and airport operations can increase combustion-related air pollutant concentrations, but it is difficult to distinguish aviation emissions from traffic and other local sources. Emission inventories are uncertain and dispersion models may not capture aircraft plume complexity; ambient monitoring data require detailed statistical analyses to extract aviation signals. The goal of this study is to compare two modeling approaches including monitoring-based regression models and the EDMS/AERMOD dispersion model, informing improvements and allowing quantitation of aviation impacts on air quality through multi-pollutant sensitivity and multi-monitor fate/transport analyses. Aggregate concentration comparisons are similar, though diurnal patterns show potential weaknesses in near-field dispersion, treatment of overnight conditions, and emission inventory accuracy.

  18. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    PubMed

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models.

  19. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    SciTech Connect

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  20. The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2008-01-01

    The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

  1. The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

  2. Modeling HIV Vaccines in Brazil: Assessing the Impact of a Future HIV Vaccine on Reducing New Infections, Mortality and Number of People Receiving ARV

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Maria Goretti P.; Forsythe, Steven; Menezes, Alexandre; Vuthoori, Shilpa; Possas, Cristina; Veloso, Valdiléa; de Fátima Lucena, Francisca; Stover, John

    2010-01-01

    Background The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios. Methods and Findings The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections. Conclusions Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial. PMID:20668523

  3. Impact assessment of risk management interventions.

    PubMed

    Shryock, T R

    2012-04-01

    Much effort has been invested in the development and implementation of international recommendations to manage the risk of foodborne antimicrobial resistance, and monitoring programmes to measure bacterial antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial product volumes. A variety of approaches have been recommended for various stakeholders in the food animal and food production sectors. Interestingly, much less consideration has been given to the establishment of success criteria for the individual interventions and even less for the cumulative effects, when all interventions are considered together as consecutive 'hurdles' along the food chain. The author explores the outcome and unforeseen consequences of these various interventions and appropriate methods that could provide data to assess their impact, as well as key learning experiences that should lead to refinements of such interventions in the future.

  4. Local modelling techniques for assessing micro-level impacts of risk factors in complex data: understanding health and socioeconomic inequalities in childhood educational attainments.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A; Bodger, Owen G; John, Ann; Brunt, Huw; Jones, Kerina; Gravenor, Mike B; Brophy, Sinead

    2014-01-01

    Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, "Micro-impact of Domain" and "Contribution of Domain", to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could

  5. Local Modelling Techniques for Assessing Micro-Level Impacts of Risk Factors in Complex Data: Understanding Health and Socioeconomic Inequalities in Childhood Educational Attainments

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A.; Bodger, Owen G.; John, Ann; Brunt, Huw; Jones, Kerina; Gravenor, Mike B.; Brophy, Sinead

    2014-01-01

    Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational

  6. Comprehensive Impact Assessment in Planning Education and a Course Syllabus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burby, Raymond J.

    1992-01-01

    Impact assessment skills are used in planning practice, reflecting expansion in society's concern with externalities of growth and development, improved methods for predicting environmental effects, and wider acceptance of impact mitigation as a growth management goal. This article reviews the status of impact assessment in planning pedagogy and…

  7. 40 CFR 227.19 - Assessment of impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Assessment of impact. 227.19 Section... FOR THE EVALUATION OF PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN DUMPING OF MATERIALS Impact of the Proposed Dumping on Esthetic, Recreational and Economic Values § 227.19 Assessment of impact. An overall...

  8. 40 CFR 227.22 - Assessment of impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 227.22 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING CRITERIA FOR THE EVALUATION OF PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN DUMPING OF MATERIALS Impact of the Proposed Dumping on Other Uses of the Ocean § 227.22 Assessment of impact. The assessment of impact on other...

  9. Health Impact Assessment of Urban Development Project

    PubMed Central

    Shojaei, Parisa; Karimlou, Masoud; Mohammadi, Farahnaz; Malekafzali, Hosein

    2016-01-01

    Background: Health impact assessment (HIA) has emerged to identify those activities and policies likely to have major impacts on the health of a population. Method: In this research, qualitative method was applied to identifying health determinants that urban man made lake affect on them, formatting and weighing the hierarchy of the factors, calculating AHP, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method for decide and ranking alternatives. Results: According to the results of the study, from the structural determinants point of view, the most positive effect of man-made lake was on Recreational services by 89.5% and the most negative one was on housing. According to intermediary determinants and general average, the most positive effect of lake was on physical activity and quality of air by 88.9% and the most negative one was on noise pollution by 46.7%. Ultimately, considering the positive and negative effects of lake between constructing and not constructing the lake option, the construction option was selected. Conclusion: There is substantial potential to improve public health by bringing decision makers’ attention to the health consequences of their actions; city councilpersons, zoning commissioners, and other decision makers typically have little background in health. PMID:27157160

  10. Integrated environmental impact assessment: a Canadian example.

    PubMed Central

    Kwiatkowski, Roy E.; Ooi, Maria

    2003-01-01

    The Canadian federal process for environmental impact assessment (EIA) integrates health, social, and environmental aspects into either a screening, comprehensive study, or a review by a public panel, depending on the expected severity of potential adverse environmental effects. In this example, a Public Review Panel considered a proposed diamond mining project in Canada's northern territories, where 50% of the population are Aboriginals. The Panel specifically instructed the project proposer to determine how to incorporate traditional knowledge into the gathering of baseline information, preparing impact prediction, and planning mitigation and monitoring. Traditional knowledge is defined as the knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and/or local communities developed from experience gained over the centuries and adapted to local culture and environment. The mining company was asked to consider in its EIA: health, demographics, social and cultural patterns; services and infrastructure; local, regional and territorial economy; land and resource use; employment, education and training; government; and other matters. Cooperative efforts between government, industry and the community led to a project that coordinated the concerns of all interested stakeholders and the needs of present and future generations, thereby meeting the goals of sustainable development. The mitigation measures that were implemented take into account: income and social status, social support networks, education, employment and working conditions, physical environments, personal health practices and coping skills, and health services. PMID:12894328

  11. Integrated environmental impact assessment: a Canadian example.

    PubMed

    Kwiatkowski, Roy E; Ooi, Maria

    2003-01-01

    The Canadian federal process for environmental impact assessment (EIA) integrates health, social, and environmental aspects into either a screening, comprehensive study, or a review by a public panel, depending on the expected severity of potential adverse environmental effects. In this example, a Public Review Panel considered a proposed diamond mining project in Canada's northern territories, where 50% of the population are Aboriginals. The Panel specifically instructed the project proposer to determine how to incorporate traditional knowledge into the gathering of baseline information, preparing impact prediction, and planning mitigation and monitoring. Traditional knowledge is defined as the knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and/or local communities developed from experience gained over the centuries and adapted to local culture and environment. The mining company was asked to consider in its EIA: health, demographics, social and cultural patterns; services and infrastructure; local, regional and territorial economy; land and resource use; employment, education and training; government; and other matters. Cooperative efforts between government, industry and the community led to a project that coordinated the concerns of all interested stakeholders and the needs of present and future generations, thereby meeting the goals of sustainable development. The mitigation measures that were implemented take into account: income and social status, social support networks, education, employment and working conditions, physical environments, personal health practices and coping skills, and health services.

  12. Teaching and Assessing Mathematical Modelling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lingefjard, T.

    2002-01-01

    Reports on the observed actions of prospective Swedish secondary mathematics teachers as they were working in a modeling situation. Discusses the way the students tackled the modeling situation and their strategies and attitudes as well as the difficulties in assessing mathematical modeling performance. (KHR)

  13. Assessing health impact assessment: multidisciplinary and international perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Krieger, N; Northridge, M; Gruskin, S; Quinn, M; Kriebel, D; Davey, S; Bassett, M; Rehkopf, D; Miller, C

    2003-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) seeks to expand evaluation of policy and programmes in all sectors, both private and public, to include their impact on population health. While the idea that the public's health is affected by a broad array of social and economic policies is not new and dates back well over two centuries, what is new is the notion—increasingly adopted by major health institutions, such as the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the United Kingdom National Health Services (NHS)—that health should be an explicit consideration when evaluating all public policies. In this article, it is argued that while HIA has the potential to enhance recognition of societal determinants of health and of intersectoral responsibility for health, its pitfalls warrant critical attention. Greater clarity is required regarding criteria for initiating, conducting, and completing HIA, including rules pertaining to decision making, enforcement, compliance, plus paying for their conduct. Critical debate over the promise, process, and pitfalls of HIA needs to be informed by multiple disciplines and perspectives from diverse people and regions of the world. PMID:12933768

  14. Practitioners, professional cultures, and perceptions of impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Morgan, Richard K.; Hart, Andrew; Freeman, Claire; Coutts, Brian; Colwill, David; Hughes, Andrew

    2012-01-15

    The very nature of impact assessment (IA) means that it often involves practitioners from a very wide range of disciplinary and professional backgrounds, which open the possibility that how IA is perceived and practised may vary according to the professional background of the practitioner. The purpose of this study is to investigate the extent to which a practitioner's professional background influences their perceptions of the adequacy of impact assessment in New Zealand under the Resource Management Act (RMA). Information gathered concerned professional affiliations, training, understanding of impact assessment practise, and perceptions of adequacy in relation to impact assessment. The results showed a dominance of a legalistic, operational perspective of impact assessment under the Resource Management Act, across all the main professions represented in the study. However, among preparers of impact assessments there was clear evidence of differences between the four main professional groups - surveyors, planners, engineers and natural scientists - in the way they see the nature and purpose of impact assessment, the practical steps involved, and what constitutes adequacy. Similarly, impact assessment reviewers - predominantly planners and lawyers - showed variations in their expectations of impact assessment depending on their respective professional affiliation. Although in many cases the differences seem to be more of a matter of emphasis, rather than major disputes on what constitutes a good process, even those differences can add up to rather distinct professional cultures of impact assessment. The following factors are seen as leading to the emergence of such professional cultures: different professions often contribute in different ways to an impact assessment, affecting their perception of the nature and purpose of the process; impact assessment training will usually be a secondary concern, compared with the core professional training, which will be

  15. Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

    2013-04-01

    Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

  16. Model for assessing psychosocial problems.

    PubMed Central

    Tannenbaum, D.; McGillivray, M.

    1996-01-01

    The Model for the Assessment of Psychosocial Problems (MAPP) can help family medicine residents effectively assess patients with psychosocial problems. Following a patient-centred clinical method, MAPP provides a guide to exploring problems and an approach that allows residents and patients jointly to define problems and decide upon management. Emphasis is placed on clarifying patients' expectations of physicians. PMID:9222578

  17. Models of Personnel Needs Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mattson, Beverly

    This report presents samples of models and strategies for determining professional development needs of special education personnel. The following areas are covered: definitions of needs and the needs assessment process; personnel needs assessment regulations under the Comprehensive System of Personnel Development, the Individuals with…

  18. 76 FR 19110 - Published Privacy Impact Assessments on the Web

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-06

    ... SECURITY Office of the Secretary Published Privacy Impact Assessments on the Web AGENCY: Privacy Office... the Department. The assessments were approved and published on the Privacy Office's Web site between May 3, 2010 and January 7, 2011. DATES: The Privacy Impact Assessments are available on the DHS...

  19. Laboratory assessment of environmental impact of phthalazine

    SciTech Connect

    Lande, S.S.; Elnabarawy, M.T.; Reiner, E.A.; Welter, A.N.; Robideau, R.R.

    1987-02-01

    Several approaches to the environmental safety assessment of chemicals have been reported. The basic principles involved in predicting environmental behavior combine degradation kinetics and the partitioning/distribution of chemicals in the environment. The transport mechanisms within the environment can be modeled as partitioning/distribution which are essentially functions of the physico-chemical properties of the chemical. Phthalazine (2,3-Benzodiazine, C8H6N2) is a component of a specialized paper product. The major route for environmental entry of phthalazine is through land disposal of waste paper. Information available on phthalazine chemistry is consistent with behavior of heterocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Several laboratory test methods and QSAR estimation procedures were used to measure key environmental properties of phthalazine. This assessment examines the environmental release of phthalazine, and its partitioning and distribution in the environment. It predicts the probable fate and possible biological effects of phthalazine.

  20. Validation of performance assessment models

    SciTech Connect

    Bergeron, M.P.; Kincaid, C.T.

    1991-11-01

    The purpose of model validation in a low-level waste site performance assessment is to increase confidence in predictions of the migration and fate of future releases from the wastes. Unlike the process of computer code verification, model validation is a site-specific process that requires site-specific data. This paper provides an overview of the topic of model validation and describes the general approaches, strategies, and limitations of model validation being considered by various researchers concerned with the subject.

  1. The Assessment Cycle: A Model for Learning through Peer Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reinholz, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This paper advances a model describing how peer assessment supports self-assessment. Although prior research demonstrates that peer assessment promotes self-assessment, the connection between these two activities is underspecified. This model, the assessment cycle, draws from theories of self-assessment to elaborate how learning takes place…

  2. Developing the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) in the context of impact significance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ijaes, Asko; Kuitunen, Markku T.; Jalava, Kimmo

    2010-02-15

    In this paper the applicability of the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) is evaluated in the context of impact significance assessment. The methodological issues considered in the study are: 1) to test the possibilities of enlarging the scoring system used in the method, and 2) to compare the significance classifications of RIAM and unaided decision-making to estimate the consistency between these methods. The data used consisted of projects for which funding had been applied for via the European Union's Regional Development Trust in the area of Central Finland. Cases were evaluated with respect to their environmental, social and economic impacts using an assessment panel. The results showed the scoring framework used in RIAM could be modified according to the problem situation at hand, which enhances its application potential. However the changes made in criteria B did not significantly affect the final ratings of the method, which indicates the high importance of criteria A1 (importance) and A2 (magnitude) to the overall results. The significance classes obtained by the two methods diverged notably. In general the ratings given by RIAM tended to be smaller compared to intuitive judgement implying that the RIAM method may be somewhat conservative in character.

  3. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  4. Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change from Cotton to Perennial Bioenergy Grasses on Hydrological Fluxes and Water Quality in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Watershed Using the APEX Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Ale, S.; Rajan, N.

    2015-12-01

    The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) region, where cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is grown in vast acreage, has the potential to grow perennial bioenergy grasses. A change in land use from cotton cropping systems to perennial grasses such as Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]) can significantly affect regional hydrologic cycle and water quality. Assessing the impacts of this potential land use change on hydrology and water quality enables the environmental assessment of feasibility to grow perennial grasses in this region to meet the U.S. national bioenergy target of 2022. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was used in this study to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with switchgrass and Miscanthus on water and nitrogen balances in the upstream subwatershed of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed in the THP, which contains 52% cotton land use. The APEX model was initially calibrated against observed streamflow and crop yield data. Since observed data on nitrogen loads in streamflow was not available for this subwatershed, we calibrated the APEX model against the SWAT-simulated nitrogen loads at the outlet of this subwatershed, which were obtained in a parallel study. The calibrated APEX model was used to simulate the impacts of land use change from cotton to Miscanthus and switchgrass on surface and subsurface water and nitrogen balances. Preliminary results revealed that the average (1994-2009) annual surface runoff decreased by 84% and 66% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios compared to the baseline scenarios. Average annual percolation increased by 106% and 57% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios relative to the baseline scenarios. Preliminary results also indicated Miscanthus and switchgrass appeared to be superior to cotton in terms of better water conservation and water quality, and minimum crop management requirements.

  5. Revealing and reducing uncertainties in climate impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    Water resources planning and management involves understanding the vulnerability of water resource systems to a wide range of different stresses. A key responsibility is to identify defensible options for the design and management of systems under an uncertain and changing climate. In the water resources sector this requires defining a range of different climate change narratives in order to evaluate the vulnerability of infrastructure and the effectiveness of different management strategies to climate-related stresses. Recent research is just now beginning to reveal how different methodological choices can impact portrayals of climate risk. We present research showing that the common approaches to climate change assessments in the water sector are affected by substantial uncertainties in methods used for climate downscaling and hydrologic modeling, and suggest that many of these uncertainties are reducible. For example, improving continental scale hydrologic model parameters can reduce one source of uncertainty. We also present research to improve characterization of uncertainty, in order to reduce the extent to which the portrayal of climate change impacts depends on ad hoc methodological choices and provide a holistic estimate of the degree to which the climate change signal emerges from the envelope of uncertainty. We hope that this presentation stimulates discussion on the best practices for climate impact assessments, and ways to improve the robustness of water resources planning under a changing climate.

  6. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a ba

  7. Screening assessment and requirements for a comprehensive assessment: Volume 1, Draft. Columbia River comprehensive impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    To evaluate the impact to the Columbia River from the Hanford Site-derived contaminants, the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Washington State Department of Ecology initiated a study referred to as the Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CRCIA). To address concerns about the scope and direction of CRCIA as well as enhance regulator, tribal, stockholder, and public involvement, the CRCIA Management Team was formed in August 1995. The Team agreed to conduct CRCIA using a phased approach. The initial phase, includes two components: 1) a screening assessment to evaluate the potential impact to the river, resulting from current levels of Hanford-derived contaminants in order to support decisions on Interim Remedial Measures, and 2) a definition of the essential work remaining to provide an acceptable comprehensive river impact assessment. The screening assessment is described in Part I of this report. The essential work remaining is Part II of this report. The objective of the screening assessment is to identify areas where the greatest potential exists for adverse effects on humans or the environment. Part I of this report discusses the scope, technical approach, and results of the screening assessment. Part II defines a new paradigm for predecisional participation by those affected by Hanford cleanup decisions.

  8. Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat

    2012-01-15

    The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

  9. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  10. An assessment of the impact of the 2003 EPRI ground-motion prediction models on the USGS national seismic-hazard maps

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cramer, C.

    2006-01-01

    Ground-motion attenuation relations have an important impact on seismic hazard analyses. Ground-motion modeling is particularly sensitive to assumptions about wave-propagation attenuation (crustal Q and geometrical spreading), as well as source and site conditions. Studies of path attenuation from earthquakes in eastern North America (ENA) provide insights into the appropriateness of specific attenuation relations. An Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) (2003, 2004) study combines published ENA ground-motion attenuation relations into four model forms: single-corner, double-corner, hybrid-empirical, and finite-fault. When substituted in the U.S. Geological Survey 2002 national seismic hazard maps for the five ENA relations originally used in those hazard calculations, the EPRI (2003) relations predict similar ground motions and hazard at short periods (0.5 sec), relative to the 2002 national maps. A major reason for this difference is due to the crustal seismic-wave attenuation model assumed in a few of the ENA relations combined into the EPRI (2003, 2004) models. Although appropriate differences in geometrical spreading models among ENA relations can also be significant, a few ENA relations have 1-Hz Q-values (Q0) that are below the EPRI (1993) consensus range for Q0 when coupled with a geometrical spreading of R-0.5. The EPRI (2003, 2004) single-corner relation is strongly influenced by the inclusion of ENA relations with assumed Q0 below the EPRI (1993) range, which explains much of the discrepancy in predictions at longer periods.

  11. Environmental impact assessment: An international evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hollick, Malcolm

    1986-03-01

    Experiences with environmental impact assessment (EIA) in a number of countries are discussed in the light of both explicit and implicit goals and objectives. Adequate environmental information is not always available to decision makers because of failure to apply EIA to all relevant decisions, the continuing inadequacies of prediction and evaluation techniques, the failure to consider alternatives adequately, and the bias of some EISs. EIA frequently results in changes to proposals and may result in stricter environmental management conditions in some cases, but some people regard it as a failure because it has not stopped development. Generally, EIA leads to better integration of environmental factors into project planning. Open procedures and freedom of information encourage responsiveness to EIA procedures, which can be weakened by discretionary powers and lack of access to the courts by public interest groups. However, legal standing may have side effects that offset its advantages. EIA can encourage cooperation and coordination between agencies but does not ensure them. Similarly, it can have a limited role in coordinating interstate and international policies. In the long term, the success of EIA depends on adequate monitoring, reassessment, and enforcement over the life of the project. EIA has generally opened up new opportunities for public participation, and may help to reduce conflict. EIA procedures need to be integrated with other environmental protection and development control programs, and various means exist for reducing its cost to developers and the public.

  12. NSTAR Ion Thruster Plume Impact Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Myers, Roger M.; Pencil, Eric J.; Rawlin, Vincent K.; Kussmaul, Michael; Oden, Katessha

    1995-01-01

    Tests were performed to establish 30-cm ion thruster plume impacts, including plume characterizations via near and farfield ion current measurements, contamination, and sputtering assessments. Current density measurements show that 95% of the beam was enclosed within a 22 deg half-angle and that the thrust vector shifted by less than 0.3 deg during throttling from 2.3 to 0.5 kW. The beam flatness parameter was found to be 0.47, and the ratio of doubly charged to singly charged ion current density decreased from 15% at 2.3 kW to 5% at 0.5 kW. Quartz sample erosion measurements showed that the samples eroded at a rate of between 11 and 13 pm/khr at 25 deg from the thruster axis, and that the rate dropped by a factor of four at 40 deg. Good agreement was obtained between extrapolated current densities and those calculated from tantalum target erosion measurements. Quartz crystal microbalance and witness plate measurements showed that ion beam sputtering of the tank resulted in a facility material backflux rate of -10 A/hr in a large space simulation chamber.

  13. Health Impact Assessment of Urban Waterway Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Korfmacher, Katrina Smith; Aviles, Katia; Cummings, B.J.; Daniell, William; Erdmann, Jared; Garrison, Valerie

    2014-01-01

    Health impact assessments (HIA) promote the consideration of health in a wide range of public decisions. Although each HIA is different, common pathways, evidence bases, and strategies for community engagement tend to emerge in certain sectors, such as urban redevelopment, natural resource extraction, or transportation planning. To date, a limited number of HIAs have been conducted on decisions affecting water resources and waterfronts. This review presents four recent HIAs of water-related decisions in the United States and Puerto Rico. Although the four cases are topically and geographically diverse, several common themes emerged from the consideration of health in water-related decisions. Water resource decisions are characterized by multiple competing uses, inter-institutional and inter-jurisdictional complexity, scientific uncertainty, long time scales for environmental change, diverse cultural and historical human values, and tradeoffs between private use and public access. These four case studies reveal challenges and opportunities of examining waterfront decisions through a