Science.gov

Sample records for impact assessment models

  1. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  2. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  3. An airport community noise-impact assessment model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deloach, R.

    1980-01-01

    A computer model was developed to assess the noise impact of an airport on the community which it serves. Assessments are made using the Fractional Impact Method by which a single number describes the community aircraft noise environment in terms of exposed population and multiple event noise level. The model is comprised of three elements: a conventional noise footprint model, a site specific population distribution model, and a dose response transfer function. The footprint model provides the noise distribution for a given aircraft operating scenario. This is combined with the site specific population distribution obtained from a national census data base to yield the number of residents exposed to a given level of noise. The dose response relationship relates noise exposure levels to the percentage of individuals highly annoyed by those levels.

  4. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  5. Ecohydrological modeling for large-scale environmental impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Abouali, Mohammad; Herman, Matthew R; Esfahanian, Elaheh; Hamaamin, Yaseen A; Zhang, Zhen

    2016-02-01

    Ecohydrological models are frequently used to assess the biological integrity of unsampled streams. These models vary in complexity and scale, and their utility depends on their final application. Tradeoffs are usually made in model scale, where large-scale models are useful for determining broad impacts of human activities on biological conditions, and regional-scale (e.g. watershed or ecoregion) models provide stakeholders greater detail at the individual stream reach level. Given these tradeoffs, the objective of this study was to develop large-scale stream health models with reach level accuracy similar to regional-scale models thereby allowing for impacts assessments and improved decision-making capabilities. To accomplish this, four measures of biological integrity (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT), Family Index of Biotic Integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), and fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)) were modeled based on four thermal classes (cold, cold-transitional, cool, and warm) of streams that broadly dictate the distribution of aquatic biota in Michigan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow and water quality in seven watersheds and the Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate 171 ecologically relevant flow regime variables. Unique variables were selected for each thermal class using a Bayesian variable selection method. The variables were then used in development of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models of EPT, FIBI, HBI, and IBI. ANFIS model accuracy improved when accounting for stream thermal class rather than developing a global model. PMID:26595397

  6. Ecohydrological modeling for large-scale environmental impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Abouali, Mohammad; Herman, Matthew R; Esfahanian, Elaheh; Hamaamin, Yaseen A; Zhang, Zhen

    2016-02-01

    Ecohydrological models are frequently used to assess the biological integrity of unsampled streams. These models vary in complexity and scale, and their utility depends on their final application. Tradeoffs are usually made in model scale, where large-scale models are useful for determining broad impacts of human activities on biological conditions, and regional-scale (e.g. watershed or ecoregion) models provide stakeholders greater detail at the individual stream reach level. Given these tradeoffs, the objective of this study was to develop large-scale stream health models with reach level accuracy similar to regional-scale models thereby allowing for impacts assessments and improved decision-making capabilities. To accomplish this, four measures of biological integrity (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT), Family Index of Biotic Integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), and fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)) were modeled based on four thermal classes (cold, cold-transitional, cool, and warm) of streams that broadly dictate the distribution of aquatic biota in Michigan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow and water quality in seven watersheds and the Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate 171 ecologically relevant flow regime variables. Unique variables were selected for each thermal class using a Bayesian variable selection method. The variables were then used in development of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models of EPT, FIBI, HBI, and IBI. ANFIS model accuracy improved when accounting for stream thermal class rather than developing a global model.

  7. Impact assessment of climate change on vegetables in Japan considering uncertainty in an impact model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masutomi, Y.

    2011-12-01

    In the summer of 2010, extreme hot weather hit Japan, and damaged many types of vegetables. In the future, global warming may often cause hot weather and damage vegetable production. In order to make adaptive policies to reduce the future impacts, it is necessary to quantitatively assess the impact of future climate change on vegetables. However, there have been few studies on quantitative impact assessment of climate change on vegetables in Japan because few impact assessment models for vegetables have been developed. In this study, I develop impact assessment models for 14 vegetables, which are designated by the government of Japan, and I assess the impact of climate change on the 14 vegetables considering uncertainty in the developed models. Impact assessment models which I developed are multi-regression models. Dependent variables of the models are shipments in markets in summer, i.e., July, August, and September. Independent variables are monthly temperature and precipitation. In order to consider uncertainty of the models in impact assessments, 1000 regression parameters are derived by the bootstrap method. Data used for developing the regression models are statistics on the shipments of vegetables from 1999 to 2010 and meteorological data of the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Model validations showed that the developed models can reproduce the historical records on the shipments well. Next, I assessed the shipments of the 14 vegetables in 2031-2040 using the developed models and the future climate projections of Miroc-3.2-Hires. The simulations showed that the shipments of almost all vegetables will decrease in 2031-2040.

  8. Coupled Dynamic Modeling to Assess Human Impact on Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, I. N.; Tsai, Y.; Turnbull, S.; Bomblies, A.; Zia, A.

    2014-12-01

    Humans are intrinsic to the hydrologic system, both as agents of change and as beneficiaries of ecosystem services. This connection has been underappreciated in hydrology. We present a modeling linkage framework of an agent-based land use change model with a physical-based watershed model. The coupled model framework presented constitutes part of an integrated assessment model that is being developed to study human-ecosystem interaction in Missisquoi Bay, spanning Vermont and Québec, which is experiencing high concentrations of nutrients from the Missisquoi River watershed. The integrated assessment approach proposed is comprised of linking two simulation models: the Interactive Land-Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM) and a physically based process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The ILUTABM treats both landscape and landowners as agents and simulates annual land-use patterns resulting from landowners annual land-use decisions and Best Management Practices (BMPs) adaptations to landowners utilities, land productivity and perceived impacts of floods. The Missisquoi River at Swanton watershed RHESSys model (drainage area of 2,200 km2) driven by climate data was first calibrated to daily streamflows and water quality sensor data at the watershed outlet. Simulated land-use patterns were then processed to drive the calibrated RHESSys model to obtain streamflow nutrient loading realizations. Nutrients loading realizations are then examined and routed back to the ILUTAB model to obtain public polices needed to manage the Missisquoi watershed as well as the Lake Champlain in general. We infer that the applicability of this approach can be generalized to other similar watersheds. Index Terms: 0402: Agricultural systems; 1800: Hydrology; 1803: Anthropogenic effects; 1834 Human impacts; 6344: System operation and management; 6334: Regional Planning

  9. A Model for Assessing Impact of Institutional Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willett, Lynn H.

    A three-dimensional model was developed to assist researchers in conceptualizing the research-study-impact process. Drawing on communication and decision making literature, the model relates time, action, and audience dimensions. The results of these relationships is labeled "institutional study impact." Impact is viewed as the outcomes from a…

  10. A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Cucurachi, S; Borgonovo, E; Heijungs, R

    2016-02-01

    The life cycle assessment (LCA) framework has established itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impact of products. Several works have established the need of integrating the LCA and risk analysis methodologies, due to the several common aspects. One of the ways to reach such integration is through guaranteeing that uncertainties in LCA modeling are carefully treated. It has been claimed that more attention should be paid to quantifying the uncertainties present in the various phases of LCA. Though the topic has been attracting increasing attention of practitioners and experts in LCA, there is still a lack of understanding and a limited use of the available statistical tools. In this work, we introduce a protocol to conduct global sensitivity analysis in LCA. The article focuses on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and particularly on the relevance of global techniques for the development of trustable impact assessment models. We use a novel characterization model developed for the quantification of the impacts of noise on humans as a test case. We show that global SA is fundamental to guarantee that the modeler has a complete understanding of: (i) the structure of the model and (ii) the importance of uncertain model inputs and the interaction among them.

  11. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  12. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  13. Quantifying the CV: Adapting an Impact Assessment Model to Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohémier, K. A.

    2015-04-01

    We present the process and results of applying the Becker Model to the curriculum vitae of a Yale University astronomy professor. As background, in July 2013, the Becker Medical Library at Washington Univ. in St. Louis held a workshop for librarians on the Becker Model, a framework developed by research assessment librarians for quantifying medical researchers' individual and group outputs. Following the workshop, the model was analyzed for content to adapt it to the physical sciences.

  14. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  15. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    PubMed

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making.

  16. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    PubMed

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. PMID:27461457

  17. Interfacing air pathway models with other media models for impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, R.L.

    1980-10-01

    The assessment of the impacts/effects of a coal conversion industry on human health, ecological systems, property and aesthetics requires knowledge about effluent and fugitive emissions, dispersion of pollutants in abiotic media, chemical and physical transformations of pollutants during transport, and pollutant fate passing through biotic pathways. Some of the environmental impacts that result from coal conversion facility effluents are subtle, acute, subacute or chronic effects in humans and other ecosystem members, acute or chronic damage of materials and property, odors, impaired atmospheric visibility, and impacts on local, regional and global weather and climate. This great variety of impacts and effects places great demands on the abiotic and biotic numerical simulators (modelers) in terms of time and space scales, transformation rates, and system structure. This paper primarily addresses the demands placed on the atmospheric analyst. The paper considers the important air pathway processes, the interfacing of air pathway models with other media models, and the classes of air pathway models currently available. In addition, a strong plea is made for interaction and communication between all modeling groups to promote efficient construction of intermedia models that truly interface across pathway boundaries.

  18. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    PubMed

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

  19. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  20. Assessing climate impacts.

    PubMed

    Wohl, E E; Pulwarty, R S; Zhang, J Y

    2000-10-10

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere-hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science.

  1. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  2. Catastrophe Models: Some Illustrations and Potential for Social Impact Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    England, J. Lynn; Hooper, Douglas A.

    Catastrophe theory may provide a possible model for describing and explaining the boom town phenomena at a generalized level; catastrophe models deal with phenomena in which changes in continuous independent variables lead to sudden, or abrupt, discontinuous changes in a dependent variable. Rural energy boom towns are the result of sudden, abrupt…

  3. Power plant impact assessment: a simple fishery production model approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacCall, A.D.; Parker, K.R.; Leithiser, R.; Jessee, B.

    1983-07-01

    The relative abundance of a cohort affected by power plant entrainment mortality as a fraction (R/sub c/) of the abundance of that cohort in the absence of power plant impact can be calculated by R/sub c/ = exp (-E/sub i/t/sub i/) where t/sub i/ is the duration of life stage i, and E/sub i/ is the entrainment mortality rate at stage i. Rate E/sub i/ can be estimated by the ratio of nonsurviving entrained organisms during a given time interval to the mean standing crop of stage i organisms in the source water during that interval. An estimate of adult abundance allows calculation of equivalent adult losses. When insufficient information is available to determine the long-term effect on the population, the fishery ''potential yield'' formula provides an interim estimate. Relative equilibrium abundance of the affected population (R/sub e/) is approximated by R/sub e/ = 1-(..sigma..E/sub i/t/sub i/ + F/sub p/ + F/sub f/)/2M, where F/sub p/ is adult mortality rate due to power plant impingement, F/sub f/ is adult mortality rate due to fisheries, and M is adult natural mortality rate. As in the case of the ''potential yield'' formula, this approximation of long-term equilibrium impact should be discarded when better estimates can be developed.

  4. A new assessment method for urbanization environmental impact: urban environment entropy model and its application.

    PubMed

    Ouyang, Tingping; Fu, Shuqing; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Wu, Zhifeng

    2008-11-01

    The thermodynamic law is one of the most widely used scientific principles. The comparability between the environmental impact of urbanization and the thermodynamic entropy was systematically analyzed. Consequently, the concept "Urban Environment Entropy" was brought forward and the "Urban Environment Entropy" model was established for urbanization environmental impact assessment in this study. The model was then utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The results indicated that the assessing results of the model are consistent to that of the equalized synthetic pollution index method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Urban Environment Entropy model has high reliability and can be applied widely in urbanization environmental assessment research using many different environmental parameters.

  5. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models. PMID:25238981

  6. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  7. The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor; Sweeney, John

    2011-05-01

    This study attempts to assess the uncertainty in the hydrological impacts of climate change using a multi-model approach combining multiple emission scenarios, GCMs and conceptual rainfall-runoff models to quantify uncertainty in future impacts at the catchment scale. The uncertainties associated with hydrological models have traditionally been given less attention in impact assessments until relatively recently. In order to examine the role of hydrological model uncertainty (parameter and structural uncertainty) in climate change impact studies a multi-model approach based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methods is presented. Six sets of regionalised climate scenarios derived from three GCMs, two emission scenarios, and four conceptual hydrological models were used within the GLUE framework to define the uncertainty envelop for future estimates of stream flow, while the GLUE output is also post processed using BMA, where the probability density function from each model at any given time is modelled by a gamma distribution with heteroscedastic variance. The investigation on four Irish catchments shows that the role of hydrological model uncertainty is remarkably high and should therefore be routinely considered in impact studies. Although, the GLUE and BMA approaches used here differ fundamentally in their underlying philosophy and representation of error, both methods show comparable performance in terms of ensemble spread and predictive coverage. Moreover, the median prediction for future stream flow shows progressive increases of winter discharge and progressive decreases in summer discharge over the coming century.

  8. Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rouse, William B.; Hammer, John M.

    1990-01-01

    The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifying limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility.

  9. Calibration of a Hydrologic Model Considering Input Uncertainty in Assessing Climate Change Impact on Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolisetti, T.; Datta, A. R.; Balachandar, R.

    2009-05-01

    Studies on impact assessment and the corresponding uncertainties in hydrologic regime predictions is of paramount in developing water resources management plans under climate change scenarios,. The variability in hydrologic model parameters is one of the major sources of uncertainties associated with climate change impact on streamflow. Uncertainty in hydrologic model parameters may arise from the choice of model calibration technique, model calibration period, model structure and response variables. The recent studies show that consideration of uncertainties in input variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration etc.) during calibration of a hydrologic model has resulted in decrease in prediction uncertainty. The present study has examined the significance of input uncertainty in hydrologic model calibration for climate change impact studies. A physically distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is calibrated considering uncertainties in (i) model parameters only, and (ii) both model parameters and precipitation input. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters. The observed daily precipitation and streamflow data of the Canard River watershed of Essex region, Ontario, Canada are used as input and output variables, respectively, during calibration. The parameter sets of the 100 most skillful hydrologic model simulations obtained from each calibration technique are used for predicting streamflow by 2070s under climate change conditions. In each run, the climate predictions of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) for SRES scenario A2 are used as input to the hydrologic model for streamflow prediction. The paper presents the results of uncertainty in seasonal and annual streamflow prediction. The outcome of the study is expected to contribute to the assessment of uncertainty in climate change impact studies and better management of available

  10. Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: The state of biological modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Rauscher, H.M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  11. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  12. Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS{reg_sign}): Exposure pathway and human health impact assessment models

    SciTech Connect

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J.

    1995-05-01

    The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) provides physics-based models for human health risk assessment for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. MEPAS analyzes pollutant behavior in various media (air, soil, groundwater and surface water) and estimates transport through and between media and exposure and impacts to the environment, to the maximum individual, and to populations. MEPAS includes 25 exposure pathway models, a database with information on more than 650 contaminants, and a sensitivity module that allows for uncertainty analysis. Four major transport pathways are considered in MEPAS: groundwater, overland, surface water, and atmospheric. This report describes the exposure pathway and health impact assessment component of MEPAS, which provides an estimate of health impacts to selected individuals and populations from exposure to pollutants. The exposure pathway analysis starts with pollutant concentration in a transport medium and estimates the average daily dose to exposed individuals from contact with the transport medium or a secondary medium contaminated by the transport medium. The average daily dose is then used to estimate a measure of health impact appropriate to the type of pollutant considered. Discussions of the exposure pathway models include the assumptions and equations used to convert the transport medium concentrations to exposure medium concentrations. The discussion for a given exposure pathway defines the transport pathways leading to the exposure, the special processes considered in determining the pollutant concentration in the exposure medium, and the exposure model used to estimate the average daily dose. Models for the exposure pathway and health impact assessments require definition of several parameters. A summary of the notation used for these parameters is provided.

  13. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  14. Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, Malcolm L.; Reed, Mark; Anderson, Eric; Isaji, Tatsusaburo; Swanson, J. Craig; Saila, Saul B.; Lorda, Ernesto; Walker, Henry

    1985-01-01

    An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity. The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.

  15. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  16. Spatially implemented Bayesian network model to assess environmental impacts of water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark C.

    2014-10-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular method of assessing environmental impacts of water management. However, spatial attributes that influence ecological processes are rarely included in BN models. We demonstrate the benefits of combining two-dimensional hydrodynamic and BN modeling frameworks to explicitly incorporate the spatial variability within a system. The impacts of two diversion scenarios on riparian vegetation recruitment at the Gila River, New Mexico, USA, were evaluated using a coupled modeling framework. We focused on five individual sites in the Upper Gila basin. Our BN model incorporated key ecological drivers based on the "recruitment box" conceptual model, including the timing of seed availability, floodplain inundation, river recession rate, and groundwater depths. Results indicated that recruitment potential decreased by >20% at some locations within each study site, relative to existing conditions. The largest impacts occurring along dynamic fluvial landforms, such as side channels and sand bars. Reductions in recruitment potential varied depending on the diversion scenario. Our unique approach allowed us to evaluate recruitment consequences of water management scenarios at a fine spatial scale, which not only helped differentiate impacts at distinct channel locations but also was useful for informing stakeholders of possible ecological impacts. Our findings also demonstrate that minor changes to river flow may have large ecological implications.

  17. Assessing the impact of vulnerability modeling in the protection of critical infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yates, Justin; Sanjeevi, Sujeevraja

    2012-10-01

    This paper examines the impact of arc metrics on the computational performance and spatial similarity in network interdiction modeling. Computational impact is measured in the number of iterations and total time required to reach an optimal solution. A combination of spatial analytical tools is offered as a methodology to assess the similarity in defense resource allocation when applying different arc interdiction metrics. An experimental design was devised and implemented using two real-world sub-networks of the Los Angeles County roadway system. This paper shows that arc metric selection has a limited effect on the spatial allocation of defense resources though metric choice does directly impact computation time. These results have direct implications to public policy and decision-making by enabling a modeler to increase his/her situational awareness and also their confidence in resource allocation decisions by selecting metrics that will improve their solution capabilities.

  18. Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

    2005-01-01

    The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

  19. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling

    PubMed Central

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2012-01-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were  collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage. PMID:22552921

  20. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

    PubMed

    Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

    2012-09-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.

  1. Stochastic modeling of triple-frequency BeiDou signals: estimation, assessment and impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bofeng

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic models are important in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) estimation problems. One can achieve reliable ambiguity resolution and precise positioning only by use of a suitable stochastic model. The BeiDou system has received increased research focus, but based only on empirical stochastic models from the knowledge of GPS. In this paper, we will systematically study the estimation, assessment and impacts of a triple-frequency BeiDou stochastic model. In our estimation problem, a single-difference, geometry-free functional model is used to extract pure random noise. A very sophisticated structure of unknown variance matrix is designed to allow the estimation of satellite-specific variances, cross correlations between two arbitrary frequencies, as well as the time correlations for phase and code observations per frequency. In assessing the stochastic models, six data sets with four brands of BeiDou receivers on short and zero-length baselines are processed, and the results are compared. In impact analysis of stochastic model, the performance of integer ambiguity resolution and positioning are numerically demonstrated using a realistic stochastic model. The results from ultrashort (shorter than 10 m) and zero-length baselines indicate that BeiDou stochastic models are affected by both observation and receiver brands. The observation variances have been modeled by an elevation-dependent function, but the modeling errors for geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites are larger than for inclined geosynchronous satellite orbit (IGSO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. The stochastic model is governed by both the internal errors of the receiver and external errors at the site. Different receivers have different capabilities for resisting external errors. A realistic stochastic model is very important for achieving ambiguity resolution with a high success rate and small false alarm and for determining realistic variances for position estimates. To

  2. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status.

    PubMed

    Seim, Gretchen L; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P; Young, Sera L

    2016-06-13

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status.

  3. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status.

    PubMed

    Seim, Gretchen L; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P; Young, Sera L

    2016-01-01

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

  4. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status

    PubMed Central

    Seim, Gretchen L.; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P.; Young, Sera L.

    2016-01-01

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

  5. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  6. Assessment of the Impact of Spatial Data on the Results of Air Pollution Dispersion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oleniacz, Robert; Rzeszutek, Mateusz

    2014-12-01

    Advanced dispersion models, taking into account information on the relief and land cover, as well as temporal and spatial variability of meteorological conditions, are beginning to play an increasingly important role in the assessment of the impact on the air quality. There are numerous spatial databases which can be used in this type of a calculation process, however, there is no answer to the question of how the use of appropriate data set of terrain characteristics affects the results of the distribution of air pollutant concentrations at the surface of the ground. This paper presents two different sets of spatial data of the relief and land cover. Then, their impact on the results of modeling the propagation of pollutants in the ambient air was characterized, using the meteorological processor CALMET and the dispersion model CALPUFF. The obtained results of concentrations in the adopted calculation area were compared on the basis of statistical indicators used to assess pollution dispersion models contained in the statistical package BOOT Statistical Model Evaluation Software Package Version 2.0. The obtained results of calculations of the maximum 1-hour concentrations, the maximum 24-hour mean concentrations and annual mean concentrations for the prepared computational grids with a resolution of 1×1 km were analyzed.

  7. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  8. Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the

  9. A multi-model integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire Elsner, M.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miles, E. L.

    2008-12-01

    In April 2007, the State of Washington passed legislation mandating a comprehensive statewide assessment of the impacts of climate change over the next 100 years. The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) is working with Washington State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and state agencies to perform an integrated assessment on the effects of climate change for eight statewide sectors: public health, agriculture, the coastal zone, forest ecosystems, salmon, infrastructure, energy, and water supply and management. An additional Climate Scenarios Working Group serves the eight other sectors by providing projections of future regional climate, downscaled to 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the state of Washington. We utilize projections from A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, as simulated by the full suite of 20 GCMs, archived in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In this approach, we apply 40 ensembles of statistically downscaled future climate to drive hydrologic model simulations. Each sector incorporates the projections of climatic and hydrologic variables in their evaluations of the impacts of climate change. Here we present impacts on hydrologic variables (such as snowpack and streamflow), as well as related implications for several of the sectors listed above, over the State of Washington for three periods: the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. We also discuss CIG's collaboration with multi-stakeholder adaptation working groups to identify potential barriers to adaptation and strategies to address the projected impacts in each sector.

  10. Life cycle impact assessment of terrestrial acidification: modeling spatially explicit soil sensitivity at the global scale.

    PubMed

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2012-08-01

    This paper presents a novel life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) approach to derive spatially explicit soil sensitivity indicators for terrestrial acidification. This global approach is compatible with a subsequent damage assessment, making it possible to consistently link the developed midpoint indicators with a later endpoint assessment along the cause-effect chain-a prerequisite in LCIA. Four different soil chemical indicators were preselected to evaluate sensitivity factors (SFs) for regional receiving environments at the global scale, namely the base cations to aluminum ratio, aluminum to calcium ratio, pH, and aluminum concentration. These chemical indicators were assessed using the PROFILE geochemical steady-state soil model and a global data set of regional soil parameters developed specifically for this study. Results showed that the most sensitive regions (i.e., where SF is maximized) are in Canada, northern Europe, the Amazon, central Africa, and East and Southeast Asia. However, the approach is not bereft of uncertainty. Indeed, a Monte Carlo analysis showed that input parameter variability may induce SF variations of up to over 6 orders of magnitude for certain chemical indicators. These findings improve current practices and enable the development of regional characterization models to assess regional life cycle inventories in a global economy.

  11. Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Sigurðardóttir, Sigríður; Johansson, Björn; Margeirsson, Sveinn; Viðarsson, Jónas R.

    2014-01-01

    Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA) for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities. PMID:24778597

  12. Impact-GMI Model

    2007-03-22

    IMPACT-GMI is an atmospheric chemical transport model designed to run on massively parallel computers. It is designed to model trace pollutants in the atmosphere. It includes models for emission, chemistry and deposition of pollutants. It can be used to assess air quality and its impact on future climate change.

  13. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model.

  14. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. PMID:24291626

  15. Community models for wildlife impact assessment: a review of concepts and approaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schroeder, Richard L.

    1987-01-01

    The first two sections of this paper are concerned with defining and bounding communities, and describing those attributes of the community that are quantifiable and suitable for wildlife impact assessment purposes. Prior to the development or use of a community model, it is important to have a clear understanding of the concept of a community and a knowledge of the types of community attributes that can serve as outputs for the development of models. Clearly defined, unambiguous model outputs are essential for three reasons: (1) to ensure that the measured community attributes relate to the wildlife resource objectives of the study; (2) to allow testing of the outputs in experimental studies, to determine accuracy, and to allow for improvements based on such testing; and (3) to enable others to clearly understand the community attribute that has been measured. The third section of this paper described input variables that may be used to predict various community attributes. These input variables do not include direct measures of wildlife populations. Most impact assessments involve projects that result in drastic changes in habitat, such as changes in land use, vegetation, or available area. Therefore, the model input variables described in this section deal primarily with habitat related features. Several existing community models are described in the fourth section of this paper. A general description of each model is provided, including the nature of the input variables and the model output. The logic and assumptions of each model are discussed, along with data requirements needed to use the model. The fifth section provides guidance on the selection and development of community models. Identification of the community attribute that is of concern will determine the type of model most suitable for a particular application. This section provides guidelines on selected an existing model, as well as a discussion of the major steps to be followed in modifying an

  16. Model assessing the impact of biomass burning on air quality and photochemistry in Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, W.; Li, G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Yokelson, R. J.; Molina, L. T.

    2010-12-01

    Biomass burning is a major global emission source for trace gases and particulates. Various multi-platform measurements during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA)-2003 and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO)-2006 campaigns suggest significant influences of biomass burning (BB) on air quality in Mexico City during the dry season, and the observations show emissions from BB impose viable yet highly variable impacts on organic aerosols (OA) in and around Mexico City. We have developed emission inventories for forest fires surrounding Mexico City based on measurement-estimated emission factors and MODIS fire counts, and for garbage fires in Mexico City based on in situ-measured emission factors and the population distribution and socioeconomic data. In this study, we will comprehensively assess the impact of biomass burning on the aerosol loading, chemical composition, OA formation and photochemistry in Mexico City using WRF-Chem. Analysis of the model results, in conjunction with concurrent field measurements, will be presented.

  17. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  18. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling

    PubMed Central

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. PMID:24535943

  19. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    PubMed

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

  20. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S> ; KramerWhite, Julie A.; KramerWhite, Julie A.; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2007-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  1. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  2. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change.

  3. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change

  4. Assessing human impact on droughts in a tropical Vietnamese catchment using a combined modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Ribbe, Lars; Tran Van, Tra; Viet, Trinh Quoc; Firoz, Abm; Fink, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    Historical drought frequency, drought risk and types are still poorly investigated in tropical regions and particularly in South East Asia. However, evolving drought periods during the dry season severely impact on socio economic factors such as livelihood (irrigated rice production), hydropower generation and urban water supply in such regions as in the VuGiaThuBon river basin (10,350 km²) in Central Vietnam. Besides the increasing frequency of heat waves and prolonged dry periods without rainfall, hydropower development and over-exploitation of water resources due to demographic and socioeconomic development are the main causes for drought-related disasters and subsequent salt water intrusion. Precipitation and runoff time series from 1982 to 2009 were used to assess drought severity and typology before hydropower development started in 2010. We applied different rainfall-runoff modelling approaches of increasing complexity (HBV light, J2000 and Mike NAM) as well as meteorological and hydrological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its runoff homologue (SRI). In the scope of the BMBF funded research project "Land use and Climate Change interactions (LUCCi)" (www.lucci-vietnam.info), the impacts of the human-induced hydrological alterations on drought risk were quantified by integrating the distributed physically-based hydrological model J2000 with the reservoir operation tool HEC ResSim and the River basin model Mike Basin to simulate the runoff to the coastal system. The salt water intrusion behavior in the flat coastal area was represented by the hydrodynamic Mike 11 model relating low flow thresholds to salt intrusion. The different discharge simulations before and after the reservoir construction were compared and evaluated regarding their relevance for the drought severity being dominated either by meteorological dry spells or hydrological alterations. Results show a clear impact of the hydropower reservoir and resulting

  5. Assessing the impact of Amazonia logging with a new ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Berry, J. A.; Bustamante, M. M.

    2006-12-01

    Old-growth Amazonian forests play a fundamental role in the global climate and carbon cycle. Land use in old- growth tropical forests contributes to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and can alter the hydrological cycle, locally, regionally, and globally. Although deforestation, largely for the conversion of land to food crops or pastures, is the major destructive force in tropical forests worldwide (Houghton et al., 2000), other forest disturbances such as the selective logging have also increased in frequency and extent. Selective logging causes widespread collateral damage to remaining trees, sub-canopy vegetation, and soils, with impacts on hydrological processes, erosion, fire, carbon storage, and plant and animal species. In this study, the impact of selective logging on the carbon budget of the Brazil Amazon region is assessed with a new 3-D version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model, which features: (1) an alternative way of estimating absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (APAR) by taking advantage of new high-resolution maps of forest canopy gap fraction; (2) a pulse disturbance module to realistically modify the carbon pools after timber harvest; (3) a regrowth module considering changes in community composition; and (4) a radiative transfer module for charactering the dynamic 3-D light environment above the canopy and within gaps after logging. The model was calibrated and validated with field observations from the Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and its sensitivity was evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of selected logging on regional carbon budget of the Brazilian Amazon were then assessed under different future climate change scenarios. Results from this study quantify the gross and net carbon storage effects of widespread logging practices throughout the Brazilian Amazon.

  6. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change.

  7. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change. PMID:23467178

  8. Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

    PubMed

    Dhondt, Stijn; Kochan, Bruno; Beckx, Carolien; Lefebvre, Wouter; Pirdavani, Ali; Degraeuwe, Bart; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

    2013-01-01

    Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make

  9. Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

    PubMed

    Dhondt, Stijn; Kochan, Bruno; Beckx, Carolien; Lefebvre, Wouter; Pirdavani, Ali; Degraeuwe, Bart; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

    2013-01-01

    Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make

  10. Assessing the Impact of Equipment Aging on System Performance Using Simulation Modeling Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, N. K.

    2005-11-07

    The radiological Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS) is used to analyze the radioactive samples collected from different radioactive material processing operations at Savannah River Site (SRS). The expeditious processing of these samples is important for safe and reliable operations at SRS. As the radiological (RAD) ICP-MS machine ages, the experience shows that replacement parts and repairs are difficult to obtain on time for reliable operations after 5 years of service. A discrete event model using commercial software EXTEND was prepared to assess the impact on sample turn around times as the ICP-MS gets older. The model was prepared using the sample statistics from the previous 4 years. Machine utilization rates were calculated for the new machine, 5 year old machine, 10 year old machine, and a 12 year old machine. Computer simulations were run for these periods and the sample delay times calculated. The model was validated against the sample statistics collected from the previous 4 quarters. 90% confidence intervals were calculated for the 10th, 25th, 50th, and 90th quantiles of the samples. The simulation results show that if 50% of the samples are needed on time for efficient site operations, a 10 year old machine could take nearly 50 days longer to process these samples than a 5-year old machine. This simulation effort quantifies the impact on sample turn around time as the ICP-MS gets older.

  11. Assessing the impact that external factors have on respiratory mechanics assessed using a specific photogrammetric model.

    PubMed

    Ricieri, Denise da Vinha; Rosário Filho, Nelson Augusto

    2008-09-01

    This is a report on a methodological adaptation of the photogrammetric technique, which is used in other medical specialties, for use in analyzing respiratory movements. Photogrammetry and a model of photogrammetry designated biofotogrametria para análise da mecânica respiratória (BAMER, photogrammetric analysis of respiratory mechanics) were tested under previously described pathophysiological conditions: post-exercise dynamic hyperinflation using positive end-expiratory pressure. The BAMER model identified an increase in the thoraco-abdominal area following exercise using positive end-expiratory pressure. These results are comparable to those obtained with more robust systems of respiratory kinematics. The use of photogrammetry has value in many areas, since it produces quantitative data, being particularly relevant in pediatrics, in which monitoring resources are scarce.

  12. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  13. Observational techniques for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in catchment scale flood impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Wilkinson, Mark; Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    river stem and principal tributaries, it is possible to understand in detail how floods develop and propagate, both temporally and spatially. Traditional rainfall-runoff modelling involves the calibration of model parameters to achieve a best fit against an observed flow series, typically at a single location. The modelling approach adopted here is novel in that it directly uses the nested observed information to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of the source locations. Using a combination of local evidence and expert opinion, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed land use management changes and NFM on floods. These studies demonstrate the power of networks of observational instrumentation for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in prediction.

  14. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  15. Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanna, R. Blair; Campbell, Sharon G.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

  16. Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

    2015-12-01

    The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

  17. Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

  18. A systematic impact assessment of GRACE error correlation on data assimilation in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Döll, Petra

    2016-06-01

    Recently, ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have found increasing application for merging hydrological models with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) fields from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Previous studies have disregarded the effect of spatially correlated errors of GRACE TWSA products in their investigations. Here, for the first time, we systematically assess the impact of the GRACE error correlation structure on EnKF data assimilation into a hydrological model, i.e. on estimated compartmental and total water storages and model parameter values. Our investigations include (1) assimilating gridded GRACE-derived TWSA into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model and, simultaneously, calibrating its parameters; (2) introducing GRACE observations on different spatial scales; (3) modelling observation errors as either spatially white or correlated in the assimilation procedure, and (4) replacing the standard EnKF algorithm by the square root analysis scheme or, alternatively, the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman filter. Results of a synthetic experiment designed for the Mississippi River Basin indicate that the hydrological parameters are sensitive to TWSA assimilation if spatial resolution of the observation data is sufficiently high. We find a significant influence of spatial error correlation on the adjusted water states and model parameters for all implemented filter variants, in particular for subbasins with a large discrepancy between observed and initially simulated TWSA and for north-south elongated sub-basins. Considering these correlated errors, however, does not generally improve results: while some metrics indicate that it is helpful to consider the full GRACE error covariance matrix, it appears to have an adverse effect on others. We conclude that considering the characteristics of GRACE error correlation is at least as important as the selection of the spatial discretisation of TWSA observations, while the choice

  19. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  20. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  1. A biomechanical impact test system for head and facial injury assessment and model development.

    PubMed

    Harris, G F; Yoganandan, N; Schmaltz, D; Reinartz, J; Pintar, F; Sances, A

    1993-01-01

    A biomechanical test system has been developed and validated to conduct controlled uniaxial impact experiments of head and facial trauma. The design reduces off-axis accelerations which are not in the direction of impact and allows accurate positioning of test specimens. Impact forces, displacement histories, impulses at impact and spectral responses are compared to free-fall test results at contact velocities representative of facial injuries (2.5, 3.1 and 3.8 m s-1). Models based on the experimental results are developed to reveal stiffness and inertial properties of impact for use in the design of biomechanically protective steering wheels, air bags and other potential impact structures. The results indicate that the system provides a flexible yet controllable method for positioning and testing impact structures reliably.

  2. Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, T.; Huang, S.; Aich, V.; Yang, T.; Wang, X.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable results for stakeholders. In the last 10-15 years, climate impact assessment has been performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate scenarios and models. However, their results are hardly comparable, and do not allow one to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Only a few such studies have been available until now with the global-scale hydrological models, and our study is intended as a step in this direction by applying the regional-scale models. The impact assessment presented here was performed for three river basins on three continents: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and three hydrological models, HBV, SWIM and VIC, were used. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) covering a range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future river discharge and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results allow one to draw some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and shared differently between sources in the studied basins. Robust results in terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be found for the Rhine basin regardless of which hydrological model or forcing GCM is used. For the Niger River, scenarios from climate models are the largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation, and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to uncertainty in the

  3. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  4. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  5. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  6. Environmental Impact Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castrilli, Joseph; Block, Elizabeth

    1975-01-01

    Increasing concern with pollution and the energy crisis surfaced the need for environmental impact assessment. Certain requirements for such statements have been identified by different Canadian groups. Among them are the need for total citizen involvement and the utilization of these statements, once completed. (MA)

  7. Community Impact Assessment Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Northern Alberta Development Council, Peace River.

    This handbook is intended for communities that wish to undertake their own community impact assessment (CIA). The goal is to enable communities to plan for changes before they occur, so they can cope with changes when they do occur. CIA involves forecasting and evaluating the full range of unintended consequences for the community of development…

  8. Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, S. C.; Lewis, G.; Bartel, R.; Batten, B.; Huang, W.; Morris, J.; Slinn, D. N.; Sparks, J.; Walters, L.; Wang, D.; Weishampel, J.; Yeh, G.

    2010-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to affect a variety of coastal habitats with a myriad of deleterious ecological effects and to overwhelm human settlements along the coast. SLR should be given serious consideration when more than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast. SLR effects will be felt along coastal beaches and in estuarine waters, with consequences to barrier islands, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, sand and mud flats, oyster reefs, and tidal and freshwater wetlands. Managers of these coastal resources must be aware of potential consequences of SLR and adjust their plans accordingly to protect and preserve the resources under their care. The Gulf Coast provides critical habitats for a majority of the commercially important species in the Gulf of Mexico, which depend on inshore waters for either permanent residence or nursery area. The ecosystem services provided by these coastal habitats are at risk from rising sea level. Our team will assess the risk to coasts and coastal habitats from SLR in a 5-year project. We will apply existing models of circulation and transport from the watershed to the sea. The ultimate prediction will be of sediment loadings to the estuary as a result of overland flow, shoreline and barrier island erosion, and salinity transport, all of which will be used to model the evolution of intertidal marshes (MEM II). Over the five-year course of our research we will be simulating hydrodynamics and transport for all three NERRS reserves, including: Apalachicola, Weeks Bay and Grand Bay. The project will result in products whereby managers will be able to assess marshes, oyster reefs, submerged aquatic vegetation, predict wetland stability and indentify restoration locations for marsh and oyster habitats. In addition, we will produce Decision Support tools that will enable managers to predict future coastal erosion rates for management-specified shorelines. Project outcomes will enable the management

  9. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  10. Utilizing an Innovative Evaluation Model To Assess Impacts of Training Adult Educators on Reaching Limited Resource Audiences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Safrit, R. Dale; And Others

    An interagency conference, Reading Families and Youth Who Have Limited Resources, was held in September 1992. Over a 2-day period, 186 adult educators and human service professionals participated in 27 different workshops. An innovative evaluation model was developed to assess the impacts of conference participation on reaching audiences who have…

  11. Geothermal Electricity Technologies Evaluation Model DOE Tool for Assessing Impact of Research on Cost of Power

    SciTech Connect

    Greg Mines

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a spreadsheet model to provide insight as to how its research activities can impact of cost of producing power from geothermal energy. This model is referred to as GETEM, which stands for “Geothermal Electricity Technologies Evaluation Model”. Based on user input, the model develops estimates of costs associated with exploration, well field development, and power plant construction that are used along with estimated operating costs to provide a predicted power generation cost. The model allows the user to evaluate how reductions in cost, or increases in performance or productivity will impact the predicted power generation cost. This feature provides a means of determining how specific technology improvements can impact generation costs, and as such assists DOE in both prioritizing research areas and identifying where research is needed.

  12. Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

    2016-04-01

    Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically

  13. Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties.

    PubMed

    Notter, Dominic A

    2015-09-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution.

  14. Dose-Response Modeling for Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Findingsof the Portland Review Workshop

    SciTech Connect

    McKone, Thomas E.; Kyle, Amy D.; Jolliet, Olivier; Olsen, StigIrving; Hauschild, Michael

    2006-06-01

    The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative aims at putting life cycle thinking into practice and at improving the supporting tools for this process through better data and indicators. The initiative has thus launched three programs with associated working groups (see http://www.uneptie.org/pc/sustain/lcinitiative/). The Task Force on Toxic Impacts was established under the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) program to establish recommended practice and guidance for use in human toxicity, ecosystem toxicity, and related categories with direct effects on human health and ecosystem health. The workshop consisted of three elements. (A) presentations summarizing (1) the goals of the LCIA Task Force (2) historical approaches to exposure and toxic impacts in LCIA (3) current alternative proposals for addressing human health impacts. Viewgraphs from two of these presentations are provided in Appendix B to this report. (B) Discussion among a panel of experts about the scientific defensibility of these historical and proposed approaches in the context of the goals of the LCIA Task Force 3 on toxicity impacts. (C) Development of the recommendations to the LCIA program and working group for optimum short- and long-term strategies for addressing human health impacts in LCA.

  15. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives.

  16. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives. PMID:26959240

  17. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives. PMID:26959240

  18. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538. [Concerning the impact at power plants on fish populations

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, S W

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods.

  19. A Hydrologic Model Calibration Exercise for Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Conterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S.; Ashfaq, M.

    2012-12-01

    Numerous studies have investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change in the U.S. using projections from multiple general circulation models downscaled by means of regional climate models, statistical methods, and hydrologic models. Most of these studies focused on a small number of local watersheds without consideration to larger-scale regional climate change impacts, or utilized macro-scale hydrologic models with coarser spatial resolution that are insufficient to characterize the delicate surface hydrology. To improve the results of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, there is a need for better spatial coverage as well as resolution of hydrologic models. The main challenge has been the availability of a comprehensive set of higher resolution calibrated physical parameters. Focusing on the need of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, a data-intensive hydrologic model calibration exercise is performed for over 2000 USGS hydrologic Subbasins (HUC8) in the conterminous U.S. at the resolution of 1/24th degree (~4km). Both USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff and NWIS daily gage observation are used to calibrate the baseline variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Several statistical matrices are used to evaluate the model performance at each HUC8, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSEC), bias (B) and the percent bias (PB). The overall results show that the physical models simulate closely the observed values with about sixty four percent of the HUC8s having an average NSEC of 0.95 The model performance was vastly better in wet region basins than they were in arid region. The current baseline VIC model can hardly be improved in arid and desert regions (covering about twenty percent of the HUC8s) where the NSEC values are below zero. Overall, the new 4-km model implementation for the conterminous U.S. shows promising improvement over the ones

  20. Advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for assessing welfare impacts associated with vertebrate pest control.

    PubMed

    Beausoleil, N J; Mellor, D J

    2015-01-01

    Many pest control activities have the potential to impact negatively on the welfare of animals, and animal welfare is an important consideration in the development, implementation and evaluation of ethically defensible vertebrate pest control. Thus, reliable and accurate methods for assessing welfare impacts are required. The Five Domains model provides a systematic method for identifying potential or actual welfare impacts associated with an event or situation in four physical or functional domains (nutrition, environment, health or functional status, behaviour) and one mental domain (overall mental or affective state). Here we evaluate the advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for this purpose and illustrate them using specific examples from a recent assessment of the welfare impacts of poisons used to lethally control possums in New Zealand. The model has a number of advantages which include the following: the systematic identification of a wide range of impacts associated with a variety of control tools; the production of relative rankings of tools in terms of their welfare impacts; the easy incorporation of new information into assessments; and the highlighting of additional information needed. For example, a recent analysis of sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poisoning in possums revealed the need for more information on the period from the onset of clinical signs to the point at which consciousness is lost, as well as on the level of consciousness during or after the occurrence of muscle spasms and seizures. The model is also valuable because it clearly separates physical or functional and affective impacts, encourages more comprehensive consideration of negative affective experiences than has occurred in the past, and allows development and evaluation of targeted mitigation strategies. Caution must be used in interpreting and applying the outputs of the model, most importantly because relative rankings or grades are fundamentally qualitative in

  1. Numerical modeling of chemical spills and assessment of their environmental impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Chemical spills in surface water bodies often occur in modern societies, which cause significant impacts on water quality, eco-environment and drinking water safety. In this paper, chemical spill contamination in water resources was studied using a depth-integrated computational model, CCHE2D, for p...

  2. Metabolic impact assessment for heterologous protein production in Streptomyces lividans based on genome-scale metabolic network modeling.

    PubMed

    Lule, Ivan; D'Huys, Pieter-Jan; Van Mellaert, Lieve; Anné, Jozef; Bernaerts, Kristel; Van Impe, Jan

    2013-11-01

    The metabolic impact exerted on a microorganism due to heterologous protein production is still poorly understood in Streptomyces lividans. In this present paper, based on exometabolomic data, a proposed genome-scale metabolic network model is used to assess this metabolic impact in S. lividans. Constraint-based modeling results obtained in this work revealed that the metabolic impact due to heterologous protein production is widely distributed in the genome of S. lividans, causing both slow substrate assimilation and a shift in active pathways. Exchange fluxes that are critical for model performance have been identified for metabolites of mouse tumor necrosis factor, histidine, valine and lysine, as well as biomass. Our results unravel the interaction of heterologous protein production with intracellular metabolism of S. lividans, thus, a possible basis for further studies in relieving the metabolic burden via metabolic or bioprocess engineering.

  3. Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

  4. Modeling approach to assess the impact of point source air pollutant emission on vegetation

    SciTech Connect

    Dauzvardis, P.A.; Veselka, T.; Ballou, S.W.

    1980-09-01

    Dose-response effects of gases emitted from industrial sources on vegetation were investigated. Some of the techniques available for vegetation damage assessments are outlined in this report. A new method of assessing potential chronic and visible damage has been developed and is described. Predictive models that will estimate plant damage in terms of decreased yields and the geographic area exposed are developed. An example is presented in which the modeling technique is used to determine the possible occurrence of yield reductions in crops grown near coal-fired power plants. (RJC)

  5. Assessing climate change impacts on runoff from karstic watersheds: NASA/GISS land-surface model improvement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blake, Reginald Alexander

    The off-line version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) land-surface hydrological model over- predicted run-off from the karstic Rio Cobre watershed in Jamaica. To assess possible climate change impacts on runoff from the watershed, the model's simulation of observed runoff was improved by adding to it a karst component that has pipe flow features. The improved model was tested on two other karstic watersheds (Yangtze - China and Rio Grande - USA) and the results were encouraging. The impacts that possible climate change may have on the three karstic watersheds were then assessed. The assessment indicates that in a doubled carbon dioxide climate, the Rio Cobre and the Rio Grande may experience decreases in runoff, especially in low flow periods. The Yangtze, on the other hand, may not experience decreases in total runoff, but its peak flow which now occurs in July may be attenuated and shifted to September. The results of the study also show that climate feedbacks convolute climate change assessments and that different results can be obtained from the same climate change scenario depending on the choice of the modeling methodology-that is, on whether the models are coupled or uncoupled.

  6. Target Rotations and Assessing the Impact of Model Violations on the Parameters of Unidimensional Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reise, Steven; Moore, Tyler; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Reise, Cook, and Moore proposed a "comparison modeling" approach to assess the distortion in item parameter estimates when a unidimensional item response theory (IRT) model is imposed on multidimensional data. Central to their approach is the comparison of item slope parameter estimates from a unidimensional IRT model (a restricted model), with…

  7. Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bucinell, Ronald B.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

  8. Development of a model for assessing the impact of information assurance functionality on secure messaging system performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belur, Sheela V.; Gloster, Jonathan

    2007-04-01

    An analytical performance model for a generic secure messaging system is formulated as a multi-class queuing network. The model includes assessment of the impact of security features such as secret key encryption/ decryption, signature generation/verification, and certificate validation, on overall performance. Findings of sensitivity analysis with respect to message rate, WAN transmission link, SSL encryption, message size, and distance between servers is also presented. Finally, the description of how the model can be adopted for making performance based architectural design options is outlined.

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  10. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  11. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  12. A Biophysical Modeling Framework for Assessing the Environmental Impact of Biofuel Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Izaurradle, C.; Manowitz, D.; West, T. O.; Post, W. M.; Thomson, A. M.; Nichols, J.; Bandaru, V.; Williams, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    Long-term sustainability of a biofuel economy necessitates environmentally friendly biofuel production systems. We describe a biophysical modeling framework developed to understand and quantify the environmental value and impact (e.g. water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and soil quality) of different biomass cropping systems. This modeling framework consists of three major components: 1) a Geographic Information System (GIS) based data processing system, 2) a spatially-explicit biophysical modeling approach, and 3) a user friendly information distribution system. First, we developed a GIS to manage the large amount of geospatial data (e.g. climate, land use, soil, and hydrograhy) and extract input information for the biophysical model. Second, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) biophysical model is used to predict the impact of various cropping systems and management intensities on productivity, water balance, and biogeochemical variables. Finally, a geo-database is developed to distribute the results of ecosystem service variables (e.g. net primary productivity, soil carbon balance, soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and N2O fluxes) simulated by EPIC for each spatial modeling unit online using PostgreSQL. We applied this framework in a Regional Intensive Management Area (RIMA) of 9 counties in Michigan. A total of 4,833 spatial units with relatively homogeneous biophysical properties were derived using SSURGO, Crop Data Layer, County, and 10-digit watershed boundaries. For each unit, EPIC was executed from 1980 to 2003 under 54 cropping scenarios (eg. corn, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar). The simulation results were compared with historical crop yields from USDA NASS. Spatial mapping of the results show high variability among different cropping scenarios in terms of the simulated ecosystem services variables. Overall, the framework developed in this study enables the incorporation of environmental factors into economic and

  13. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  14. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  15. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  16. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  17. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    SciTech Connect

    Nooij, R.J.W. de . E-mail: R.deNooij@science.ru.nl; Lotterman, K.M.; Sande, P.H.J. van de; Pelsma, T.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.; Lenders, H.J.R.

    2006-11-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments

  18. Integrated assessment of acid deposition impacts using reduced-form modeling. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Sinha, R.; Small, M.J.

    1996-05-01

    Emissions of sulfates and other acidic pollutants from anthropogenic sources result in the deposition of these acidic pollutants on the earth`s surface, downwind of the source. These pollutants reach surface waters, including streams and lakes, and acidify them, resulting in a change in the chemical composition of the surface water. Sometimes the water chemistry is sufficiently altered so that the lake can no longer support aquatic life. This document traces the efforts by many researchers to understand and quantify the effect of acid deposition on the water chemistry of populations of lakes, in particular the improvements to the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) modeling effort, and describes its reduced-form representation in a decision and uncertainty analysis tool. Previous reduced-form approximations to the MAGIC model are discussed in detail, and their drawbacks are highlighted. An improved reduced-form model for acid neutralizing capacity is presented, which incorporates long-term depletion of the watershed acid neutralization fraction. In addition, improved fish biota models are incorporated in the integrated assessment model, which includes reduced-form models for other physical and chemical processes of acid deposition, as well as the resulting socio-economic and health related effects. The new reduced-form lake chemistry and fish biota models are applied to the Adirondacks region of New York.

  19. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  20. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  1. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  2. Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases.

  3. Assessing the impacts of agricultural change on soil erosion over the last century: a multi-model ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sellami, Haykel; Smith, Hugh; Sangster, Heather; Riley, Mark; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil erosion models (SEMs) are valuable tools for understanding the links between past agricultural practices and soil erosion. Use of SEMs allows assessment of impacts from agricultural change over timescales that exceed instrumental records but correspond to periods for which considerable land use and climate information are available. Here, we develop a modelling framework to investigate the potential impacts of changes in agricultural practices and climate on soil erosion and sediment transport over the last 100 years in six lake catchments in Britain spanning upland and lowland environments. The modelling platform comprises a multi-model ensemble of derivatives of the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) and RUSLE models. Simulation of change in land use/land cover (LULC), drainage features, crop rotation and livestock grazing are accounted for by reconstructing LULC maps from 1888 to 2007. Reconstructions of climatic conditions combine multiple records using regression and artificial neural network techniques to derive long-term daily precipitation and temperature series from 1880 to present. The modelling platform uses a grid-based modelling approach to handle the spatial distribution and heterogeneity in LULC, soil and topographic information. For each soil type, a database of physical parameters was created by combining information from the literature, LandIS soil database and pedotransfer functions. At each grid cell, a rainfall-Runoff (RR) model based on saturation excess runoff generation mechanisms provides daily soil moisture content. Furthermore, the modelling platform encompasses a crop cover model (CC) based on the Heat Unit approach developed to simulate daily Leaf Area Index for each crop type. Both the RR and CC models are used to update the canopy and ground cover parameters. In the absence of long-term river monitoring data, lake sediment records are used to compare the multi-model simulations thus creating a baseline from which to project impacts from

  4. Uncertainty Analysis of A Global Hydrologic Model Used For Climate Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaspar, F.; Doell, P.

    WaterGAP 2 is an integrated global model of water use and water availability. The hydrologic submodel (WGHM) computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. It is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations which represent about 50% of the global land area. The model has been used in a number of studies to assess the effects of a chang- ing climate on water resources. The results of global climate models have been used as input for these scenario calculations. Due to the calibration the hydrologic model performs quite well for simulations of historic periods. An uncertainty analysis has been performed to evaluate the reliability of the scenario calculations. Three sources of uncertainties have been considered: (1) the uncertainty of the internal model pa- rameters, (2) the uncertainty caused by the use of different climate models and (3) the uncertainty due to the model structure. For the first category 38 model parameters have been considered with their appropriate probability distributions derived from lit- erature research. Latin Hypercube sampling has been used to evaluate the effect on the model output. Two climate models (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) have been used to demonstrate the effects of category 2. The third type of uncertainties was evaluated by comparing two approaches for the evapotranspiration equation (Priestley-Taylor vs. Penman-Monteith. The results are presented in a way that allows a direct comparison of the different sources of uncertainties. The analysis has been performed in different water basins all over the world. This reveals significant regional differences in the im- portance of the different sources of uncertainties. A comparison of basins with their subbasins demonstrates the relevance of the spatial scale.

  5. Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission - Full-Scale Modeling and Simulation of Ejecta Evolution and Fates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fahnestock, Eugene G.; Yu, Yang; Hamilton, Douglas P.; Schwartz, Stephen; Stickle, Angela; Miller, Paul L.; Cheng, Andy F.; Michel, Patrick; AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group

    2016-10-01

    The proposed Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission includes NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), whose impact with the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos is expected to liberate large amounts of ejecta. We present efforts within the AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group to comprehensively simulate the behavior of this impact ejecta as it moves through and exits the system. Group members at JPL, OCA, and UMD have been working largely independently, developing their own strategies and methodologies. Ejecta initial conditions may be imported from output of hydrocode impact simulations or generated from crater scaling laws derived from point-source explosion models. We started with the latter approach, using reasonable assumptions for the secondary's density, porosity, surface cohesive strength, and vanishingly small net gravitational/rotational surface acceleration. We adopted DART's planned size, mass, closing velocity, and impact geometry for the cratering event. Using independent N-Body codes, we performed Monte Carlo integration of ejecta particles sampled over reasonable particle size ranges, and over launch locations within the crater footprint. In some cases we scaled the number of integrated particles in various size bins to the estimated number of particles consistent with a realistic size-frequency distribution. Dynamical models used for the particle integration varied, but all included full gravity potential of both primary and secondary, the solar tide, and solar radiation pressure (accounting for shadowing). We present results for the proportions of ejecta reaching ultimate fates of escape, return impact on the secondary, and transfer impact onto the primary. We also present the time history of reaching those outcomes, i.e., ejecta clearing timescales, and the size-frequency distribution of remaining ejecta at given post-impact durations. We find large numbers of particles remain in the system for several

  6. Coupling hydrological and impact assessment models to explore nutrient cycling in freshwater systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwman, Lex; van Beek, Rens; Beusen, Arthur; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    The IMAGE-Global Nutrient Model (GNM) is a new globally distributed, spatially explicit model in which the hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB is coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE to simulate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery, and then with a spiraling ecological approach to simulating instream biogeochemistry. Routing the water with dissolved and suspended N and P from upstream grid cells occurs simultaneous with N and P delivery to water bodies within grid cells from diffuse and point sources (wastewater). IMAGE-GNM describes the following diffuse sources associated with the water flow: surface runoff, shallow and deep groundwater, riparian zones. Depending on the landscape features, all these flows may be present within one grid cell. Furthermore, diffuse N and P inputs occur through allochtonous organic matter inputs via litterfall in (temporarily) inundated river floodplains, and atmospheric deposition. In the spiraling concept, the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity determine N and P retention in water bodies. Validation of model results with observations yields acceptable agreement given the global scale of the uncalibrated model. Sensitivity analysis shows shifts in the importance of the different sources, with decreasing importance of natural sources and increasing influence of wastewater and agriculture. IMAGE-GNM can be employed to study the interaction between society and the environment over prolonged time periods. Here we show results for the full 20th century.

  7. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  8. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

    2016-09-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  9. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

    2016-09-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region. PMID:26984258

  10. Assessing The Impact of SST Anomalies on Polar Climate Using Global Teleconnection Operators from Multiple Models Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.

    2015-12-01

    The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties in the given forcing, the response to this forcing, and the internal variability of the fully coupled climate system. Given these factors, we estimate how anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns can influence polar climate and ultimately impact ice sheets and polar feedbacks. Using different versions of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (i.e. CAM3.1, CAM3.5, CAM4.0, CAM5.0), we assess the capabilities of multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to respond to SST forced changes by perturbing SST fields that influence polar climate via atmospheric teleconnections. By decomposing uncertainties, we are able to address the impact of structural differences in climate models. From large-ensembles of model simulations, we estimate the Global Teleconnection Operator (GTO) for each AGCM. The GTO is a linear approximation or empirical Green's function and can be used to diagnose the sensitivities of polar climate to the boundary condition forcing from anomalous SSTs patterns. Primarily, the GTO identifies the ocean sectors where SST anomalies are effective at forcing polar climate response. To explore predictability issues, the multi-linear model is evaluated by comparing the linearly reconstructed response with both the results from the full non-linear coupled model and observations. We find that the multi-linear model can capture polar climate variability that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations produce at seasonal scales for several polar regions in the near future. Overall, this approach provides a tool for exploring polar climate response as a first-order assessment of the climate variability being driven by SST forcings and the internal variability and model uncertainties by using large ensembles to estimate GTO. Furthermore, the uncertainty decomposition can help identify key directions where further research is required to improve predictive skill.

  11. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A; Lima, Albertina P; Machado, Ricardo B; Magnusson, William E

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

  12. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A.; Lima, Albertina P.; Machado, Ricardo B.; Magnusson, William E.

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion. PMID:26784891

  13. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  14. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report. Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S.; Kramer White, Julie; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2005-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  15. Impact Assessment of Repeated Exposure of Organotypic 3D Bronchial and Nasal Tissue Culture Models to Whole Cigarette Smoke

    PubMed Central

    Kuehn, Diana; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Dulize, Remi; Baumer, Karine; Iskandar, Anita; Boue, Stephanie; Martin, Florian; Kostadinova, Radina; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V.; Frentzel, Stefan; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has a major impact on lung biology and may result in the development of lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or lung cancer. To understand the underlying mechanisms of disease development, it would be important to examine the impact of CS exposure directly on lung tissues. However, this approach is difficult to implement in epidemiological studies because lung tissue sampling is complex and invasive. Alternatively, tissue culture models can facilitate the assessment of exposure impacts on the lung tissue. Submerged 2D cell cultures, such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell cultures, have traditionally been used for this purpose. However, they cannot be exposed directly to smoke in a similar manner to the in vivo exposure situation. Recently developed 3D tissue culture models better reflect the in vivo situation because they can be cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Their basal sides are immersed in the culture medium; whereas, their apical sides are exposed to air. Moreover, organotypic tissue cultures that contain different type of cells, better represent the physiology of the tissue in vivo. In this work, the utilization of an in vitro exposure system to expose human organotypic bronchial and nasal tissue models to mainstream CS is demonstrated. Ciliary beating frequency and the activity of cytochrome P450s (CYP) 1A1/1B1 were measured to assess functional impacts of CS on the tissues. Furthermore, to examine CS-induced alterations at the molecular level, gene expression profiles were generated from the tissues following exposure. A slight increase in CYP1A1/1B1 activity was observed in CS-exposed tissues compared with air-exposed tissues. A network-and transcriptomics-based systems biology approach was sufficiently robust to demonstrate CS-induced alterations of xenobiotic metabolism that were similar to those observed in the bronchial and nasal epithelial cells obtained from smokers. PMID:25741927

  16. Impact assessment of repeated exposure of organotypic 3D bronchial and nasal tissue culture models to whole cigarette smoke.

    PubMed

    Kuehn, Diana; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Dulize, Remi; Baumer, Karine; Iskandar, Anita; Boue, Stephanie; Martin, Florian; Kostadinova, Radina; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Frentzel, Stefan; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has a major impact on lung biology and may result in the development of lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or lung cancer. To understand the underlying mechanisms of disease development, it would be important to examine the impact of CS exposure directly on lung tissues. However, this approach is difficult to implement in epidemiological studies because lung tissue sampling is complex and invasive. Alternatively, tissue culture models can facilitate the assessment of exposure impacts on the lung tissue. Submerged 2D cell cultures, such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell cultures, have traditionally been used for this purpose. However, they cannot be exposed directly to smoke in a similar manner to the in vivo exposure situation. Recently developed 3D tissue culture models better reflect the in vivo situation because they can be cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Their basal sides are immersed in the culture medium; whereas, their apical sides are exposed to air. Moreover, organotypic tissue cultures that contain different type of cells, better represent the physiology of the tissue in vivo. In this work, the utilization of an in vitro exposure system to expose human organotypic bronchial and nasal tissue models to mainstream CS is demonstrated. Ciliary beating frequency and the activity of cytochrome P450s (CYP) 1A1/1B1 were measured to assess functional impacts of CS on the tissues. Furthermore, to examine CS-induced alterations at the molecular level, gene expression profiles were generated from the tissues following exposure. A slight increase in CYP1A1/1B1 activity was observed in CS-exposed tissues compared with air-exposed tissues. A network-and transcriptomics-based systems biology approach was sufficiently robust to demonstrate CS-induced alterations of xenobiotic metabolism that were similar to those observed in the bronchial and nasal epithelial cells obtained from smokers. PMID:25741927

  17. Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

    2016-03-31

    Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant.

  18. Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant. PMID:27063732

  19. Daily Water Temperature and River Discharge Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment in Large River Basins Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-12-01

    Recent and future changes in climate will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes, having a direct impact on water quality and in turn the growth rate and distribution of freshwater organisms. In addition, changes in river temperature and streamflow are of economic importance for water requirements for industry, electricity and drinking water production. Although integrated hydrological and deterministic water temperature modeling approaches have been successfully applied for small-scale catchments, much less work has been done at large scales. A computationally efficient modeling approach is needed to simulate water temperature and river discharge at large temporal and spatial scales, for purposes such as addressing climate change issues. In addition, realistic simulations of daily water temperature and discharge of rivers with different basin characteristics and anthropogenic impacts are needed to address large-scale water management issues. Here we use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the computationally efficient 1D stream temperature model RBM to simulate river discharge and water temperature on a daily basis for selected large-scale river basins globally. The models were forced with a new global gridded 0.5° x 0.5° meteorological dataset provided by the EU FP6 Water and Global Change (WATCH) project. The performance of this modeling approach was tested for the period 1980-1999 and during warm, dry periods specifically when water temperatures and water availability are generally most critical for usage functions and freshwater ecosystems. In addition, the impact of climate change on water temperature and river discharge is assessed by forcing the models with bias corrected output of selected Global Climate Models.

  20. Assessment to CCN impacts on stratocumulus cloud development by LES model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, K.; Yum, S.; Park, S. K.

    2006-12-01

    Since stratocumulus clouds cover about 25 % of the entire global ocean, it is necessary to identify the potentially significant impact of these clouds on climate. Anthropogenic and natural aerosol serve as a source of CCN. Due to the increase of human activities anthropogenic aerosol distributions vary with time and place. Radiative properties of stratocumulus clouds formed on these anthropogenic CCN also vary since increased CCN increase the concentration of cloud droplets and induce changes in liquid water content resulting from feedbacks involving precipitation and entrainment. This study investigates the CCN impacts (3 cases: extreme continental, continental and maritime) on stratocumulus clouds development using the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) large eddy simulation (LES) model with size-resolving microphysics and attempts to understand how turbulence interacts with cloud microphysics. Initial extreme continental CCN spectrum is taken from the recent measurement on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. Initial continental and maritime CCN spectra are selected from aircraft measurement over the Atlantic ocean. The cumulative CCN concentrations at 1 % supersaturation are 5292, 1023 and 163 cm-3 for extreme continental, continental and maritime, respectively. Preliminary results show that, cloud droplet number concentration was higher and mean diameter of cloud droplets, cloud liquid water content and drizzle liquid water content were smaller when CCN concentrations were higher. For maritime case, precipitation started after 75 minutes and lasted until the end of the run at 6 hours, while for continental case there was no drizzle reaching the surface for the whole 6 hours. Detailed feature of stratocumulus cloud evolution will be discussed at the meeting focusing on the decoupling processes of the stratus topped boundary layer and the water vapor sources at the surface in the daytime by the shortwave heating of the cloud

  1. Assessment of Climate Change Impact: Use of a Groundwater and Surface Water Model in a Highly-Urbanized Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cochand, F.; Therrien, R.

    2013-12-01

    There is currently great interest in quantifying the impact of anticipated climate change on groundwater volumes and flow dynamics. Several studies have assessed the impact of future climatic conditions on groundwater but only a few have investigated the concurrent potential impact of future urbanization. The main objective of our research project is to assess the impact of future climatic conditions and urban development on groundwater resources by focusing on the highly-urbanized catchment of the Saint-Charles River, in Quebec City, Canada. The methodology proposed to reach this objective is divided in two steps. The first step is to develop and calibrate a numerical model that simulates the surface water and groundwater flow dynamics for the catchment, using the physically-based, fully integrated, variably-saturated 3-D surface-subsurface simulator HydroGeoSphere (HGS). In addition, this model includes functions for simulating snow accumulation (during winter), snow melting (during spring) and freezing/thawing dynamic of pore water near the surface, which have been applied to the catchment. The second step is to identify climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) and downscale their input to the catchment scale, as well as to propose urbanisation scenarios. Using the calibrated model as a starting point, the output of the GCMs and urbanisation scenarios will then be used as boundary conditions in the numerical model for predictive simulations and to assess their effect on groundwater flow dynamics. This presentation mainly reports on the first step of the project, which is the development of the calibrated model. The geology of the catchment is complex because of successions of quaternary deposits, with highly-variable hydrogeological properties and a complex spatial distribution that lie on fractured bedrock. A 3D Quaternary geological model is available but due to its complex geometry, the integration of this model into the 3-D hydrogeological

  2. Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

  3. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  4. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  5. Development and Testing of a Simple Calibration Technique for Long-Term Hydrological Impact Assessment (L-THIA) Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muthukrishnan, S.; Harbor, J.

    2001-12-01

    Hydrological studies are significant part of every engineering, developmental project and geological studies done to assess and understand the interactions between the hydrology and the environment. Such studies are generally conducted before the beginning of the project as well as after the project is completed, such that a comprehensive analysis can be done on the impact of such projects on the local and regional hydrology of the area. A good understanding of the chain of relationships that form the hydro-eco-biological and environmental cycle can be of immense help in maintaining the natural balance as we work towards exploration and exploitation of the natural resources as well as urbanization of undeveloped land. Rainfall-Runoff modeling techniques have been of great use here for decades since they provide fast and efficient means of analyzing vast amount of data that is gathered. Though process based, detailed models are better than the simple models, the later ones are used more often due to their simplicity, ease of use, and easy availability of data needed to run them. The Curve Number (CN) method developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is one of the most widely used hydrologic modeling tools in the US, and has earned worldwide acceptance as a practical method for evaluating the effects of land use changes on the hydrology of an area. The Long-Term Hydrological Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model is a basic, CN-based, user-oriented model that has gained popularity amongst watershed planners because of its reliance on readily available data, and because the model is easy to use (http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/runoff) and produces results geared to the general information needs of planners. The L-THIA model was initially developed to study the relative long-term hydrologic impacts of different land use (past/current/future) scenarios, and it has been successful in meeting this goal. However, one of the weaknesses of L-THIA, as well as other

  6. Towards a climate impact assessment of the Tarim River, NW China: integrated hydrological modelling using SWIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wortmann, Michel

    2014-05-01

    The Tarim River is the principle water source of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, NW China and the country's largest endorheic river, terminating in the Taklamakan desert. The vast majority of discharge is generated in the glaciated mountain ranges to the north (Tian Shan), south (Kunlun Shan/Tibetan Plateau) and west (Pamir Mountains) of the Taklamakan desert. The main water user is the intensive irrigation agriculture for mostly cotton and fruit production in linear river oases of the middle and lower reaches as well as a population of 10 Mil. people. Over the past 40 years, an increase in river discharge was reported, assumed to be caused by enhanced glacier melt due to a warming climate. Rapid population growth and economic development have led to a significant expansion of area under irrigation, resulting in water shortages for downstream users and the floodplain vegetation. Water resource planning and management of the Tarim require integrated assessment tools to examine changes under future climate change, land use and irrigation scenarios. The development of such tools, however, is challenged by sparse climate and discharge data as well as available data on water abstractions and diversions. The semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was implemented for the headwater and middle reaches that generate over 90% of discharge, including the Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant rivers. It includes the representation of snow and glacier melt as well as irrigation abstractions. Once calibrated and validated to river discharge, the model is used to analyse future climate scenarios provided by one physically-based and one statistical regional climate model (RCM). Preliminary results of the model calibration and validation indicate that SWIM is able simulate river discharge adequately, despite poor data conditions. Snow and glacier melt account for the largest share in river discharge. The modelling results will devise

  7. Impact of spatial input data resolution on hydrological and erosion modeling: Recommendations from a global assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaplot, V.

    The need to precisely describe the characteristics of a landscape is well-known in mathematical modeling from different environmental disciplines. Because spatial input data, such as climate, relief and soil maps are costly to obtain, especially when large areas are considered, several research studies have investigated the extent to which the resolution of these can be reduced. Yet, a consensus has not been reached on the question of models' sensitivity to the whole range of spatial input data and for different environmental conditions. This issue was illustrated with the analysis of existing results from 41 watersheds from 30 research studies using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Because these studies were not consistent in the type of spatial input data considered and the range of resolutions, an application of SWAT was performed in a flat 2612 ha flat watershed of central Iowa (USA) where the sensitivity of runoff (R), NO3-N (N) and sediment (SED) yields was tested for changes in the resolution of all the required spatial input data (digital elevation model: DEM: 20-500 m; n = 12; number of rain gauge: NRAIN from 1 to 13; n = 8; soil map: SOIL: 1/25,000-1/500,000; n = 3) and in the number of watershed sub-divisions (NSW from 4 to 115; n = 4). At the flat watershed, a Canonical Correlation Analysis with 67.4% of data variance explained by the two first variates, revealed that R and SED predictions were affected, mostly by NSW (r = 0.95), followed by SOIL (r = 0.18). N loads were the most sensitive to RAIN (r = 0.76) and DEM (r = 0.41), followed by SOIL (r = 0.23) and NSW (r = -0.17). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), that describes the significance of resolution changes for a considered spatial input data, showed that the model's sensitivity was greater for SSW below 261 ha, for 30 < DEM < 100 m and across the whole range of NRAIN. Finally, the analysis of watersheds with different sizes and environmental conditions revealed that the minimum

  8. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  9. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  10. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    SciTech Connect

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  11. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    SciTech Connect

    Gontier, Mikael . E-mail: gontier@kth.se

    2007-07-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects.

  12. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  13. Scoping for Social Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Branch, Kristi M.; Ross, Helen

    2000-12-01

    Social assessment combines research, analytic, and participatory processes to identify, describe, and interpret changes in the ?human environment? that result from any of a wide variety of change agents -- projects, policies, or planning activities. Scoping for social impact assessment draws upon these same three processes - research, analysis, and participation - to: - Disclose information about the proposed action, preliminary estimates of impacts, and plans for the decision making and assessment effort - Initiate dialogue with the interested and potentially affected publics and decision makers - Establish the focus and level of detail of the assessment, identify particular issues that need to be addressed, and clarify how potentially affected publics will be consulted and involved. This chapter describes the function and key objectives of the scoping process, explains the assessment framework and the conventions and issues that set the context for the scoping process, provides some suggestions about how to plan and conduct scoping for a social assessment, and discusses some of the key issues that must be addressed in designing an effective scoping process for social impact assessment. Our approach recognises that social scientists may be involved in assessment tasks that involve other disciplinary areas. This may be an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA, the analysis of the impacts of policies or plans, or the combination of impact assessment with planning), or a planning process.

  14. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.; Mostovoy, G.

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

  15. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  16. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-01

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany.

  17. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-01

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany. PMID:26061620

  18. A simplified model for assessing the impact to groundwater of swine farms at regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Viterbo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Swine manure can be an excellent source of nutrients for crop production. Several swine farms are present in the territory of Regione Umbria and more than 200.000 of swine heads are present yearly in the whole territory while some municipalities host more than 30.000 heads over a relatively limited land. Municipality with elevated number of swine heads has registered particularly higher Nitrate concentration in groundwater that requires a management plan and intervention in order to determine the maximum allowed N loads in the specific region. Use of manure and fertilizers in agricultural field produce diffuse nitrogen (N) losses that are a major cause of excessive nitrate concentrations in ground and surface waters and have been of concern since decades. Excessive nitrate concentrations in groundwater can have toxic effects when used as drinking water and cause eutrophication in surface waters. For management and environmental planning purposes, it is necessary to assess the magnitude of diffuse N losses from agricultural fields and how they are influenced by factors such as management practices, type of fertilizers -organic or inorganic - climate and soil etc. There are several methods for assessing N leaching, they span from methods based on field test to complex models that require many input data. We use a simple index method that accounts for the type of fertilizer used - inorganic, swine or cattle manure- and hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. Hydrological conditions such as infiltration rates are estimated by a fully distributed hydrological model. Data on inorganic and organic fertilization are estimated at municipal level by using the nutrient crops needs and the statistics of swine and cattle heads within the municipality. The index method has been calibrated by using groundwater concentration as a proxy of N losses from agriculture. A time series of three years of data has been analyzed. The application of the simple index method allowed to

  19. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments. PMID:23968738

  20. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments.

  1. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  2. Atmospheric dispersion modeling with AERMOD for comparative impact assessment of different pollutant emission sources in an Alpine context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antonacci, Gianluca; Giovannini, Lorenzo; Tomasi, Elena; Zardi, Dino

    2015-04-01

    High-resolution simulations are performed with the AERMOD model to analyze the impact on air quality of different pollutant emission sources in the area surrounding the town of Vipiteno in the northeastern Italian Alps. In this area the environmental burden of pollutant emissions is particularly high because of both its complex terrain and the presence of specific pollutant sources. In this study the effects of the main sources are analyzed and compared: the A22 motorway, which leads to the Brenner pass, the town of Vipiteno, mainly characterized by intensive use of biomass for house heating, three major plants with high emission rates, and a parking lot located near the motorway, offering park spaces for up to 260 trucks and 50 cars. To assess the impact of these pollution sources the AERMOD model is run with a spatial resolution of 25 m and with meteorological input data obtained from different datasets, such as annual series of standard meteorological variables taken from local weather stations and a set of vertical soundings. During the simulations the sources are modeled in different ways depending on the type of the emissions: the motorway is modeled as a linear source, the village as a diffuse source, the local companies as point sources and the parking lot is modeled as a composition of a diffuse source, representing the idling vehicles inside the park, and of a linear source, representing the access routes to the parking. For each type of source, specific emission factors are chosen, and hourly and seasonal emission patterns are set with particular attention to the analysis of idling vehicle emission factors. The results of the simulations are analyzed in terms of NO2 and PM10 and the impact of each source is discussed.

  3. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  4. Modeling and measuring snow for assessing climate change impacts in Glacier National Park, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Selkowitz, David J.; Reardon, Blase; Holzer, Karen; Mckeon, Lisa L.

    2002-01-01

    A 12-year program of global change research at Glacier National Park by the U.S. Geological Survey and numerous collaborators has made progress in quantifying the role of snow as a driver of mountain ecosystem processes. Spatially extensive snow surveys during the annual accumulation/ablation cycle covered two mountain watersheds and approximately 1,000 km2 . Over 7,000 snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements have been made through spring 2002. These augment two SNOTEL sites, 9 NRCS snow courses, and approximately 150 snow pit analyses. Snow data were used to establish spatially-explicit interannual variability in snowpack SWE. East of the Continental Divide, snowpack SWE was lower but also less variable than west of the Divide. Analysis of snowpacks suggest downward trends in SWE, a reduction in snow cover duration, and earlier melt-out dates during the past 52 years. Concurrently, high elevation forests and treelines have responded with increased growth. However, the 80 year record of snow from 3 NRCS snow courses reflects a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, resulting in 20-30 year phases of greater or lesser mean SWE. Coupled with the fine-resolution spatial snow data from the two watersheds, the ecological consequences of changes in snowpack can be empirically assessed at a habitat patch scale. This will be required because snow distribution models have had varied success in simulating snowpack accumulation/ablation dynamics in these mountain watersheds, ranging from R2=0.38 for individual south-facing forested snow survey routes to R2=0.95 when aggregated to the watershed scale. Key ecological responses to snowpack changes occur below the watershed scale, such as snow-mediated expansion of forest into subalpine meadows, making continued spatially-explicit snow surveys a necessity. 

  5. IMPACT fragmentation model developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorge, Marlon E.; Mains, Deanna L.

    2016-09-01

    The IMPACT fragmentation model has been used by The Aerospace Corporation for more than 25 years to analyze orbital altitude explosions and hypervelocity collisions. The model is semi-empirical, combining mass, energy and momentum conservation laws with empirically derived relationships for fragment characteristics such as number, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and spreading velocity as well as event energy distribution. Model results are used for several types of analysis including assessment of short-term risks to satellites from orbital altitude fragmentations, prediction of the long-term evolution of the orbital debris environment and forensic assessments of breakup events. A new version of IMPACT, version 6, has been completed and incorporates a number of advancements enabled by a multi-year long effort to characterize more than 11,000 debris fragments from more than three dozen historical on-orbit breakup events. These events involved a wide range of causes, energies, and fragmenting objects. Special focus was placed on the explosion model, as the majority of events examined were explosions. Revisions were made to the mass distribution used for explosion events, increasing the number of smaller fragments generated. The algorithm for modeling upper stage large fragment generation was updated. A momentum conserving asymmetric spreading velocity distribution algorithm was implemented to better represent sub-catastrophic events. An approach was developed for modeling sub-catastrophic explosions, those where the majority of the parent object remains intact, based on estimated event energy. Finally, significant modifications were made to the area-to-mass ratio distribution to incorporate the tendencies of different materials to fragment into different shapes. This ability enabled better matches between the observed area-to-mass ratios and those generated by the model. It also opened up additional possibilities for post-event analysis of breakups. The paper will discuss

  6. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  7. Application of WetSpa model for assessing land use impacts on floods in the Margecany-Hornad watershed, Slovakia.

    PubMed

    Bahremand, A; De Smedt, F; Corluy, J; Liu, Y B; Poórová, J; Velcická, L; Kunikova, E

    2006-01-01

    The spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa combines elevation, soil and land use data within GIS, to predict flood hydrographs and spatial distribution of hydrologic characteristics in a watershed. The model is applied to the Margecany-Hornad river basin (1131 km2) in Slovakia. Daily hydrometeorological data from 1991-2000, including precipitation data from nine stations, temperature data from four stations and evaporation data measured at one station are used as input to the model. Three base maps, i.e. DEM, land use and soil type are prepared in GIS form, using 100 x 100 m cell size. Results of the simulations show good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs. The model predicts the daily/hourly hydrographs with 75-80% accuracy according to the Nash-Sutcliff criteria. For assessing the impact of land use changes on floods, the calibrated model is applied for a reforestation scenario, which considers a 50% increase of forest areas. The model results show that the reforestation scenario decreases the peak discharge by 12%. Investigation of peak discharges from the whole simulation period, shows that the scenario results are reduced by 18% on average, while for small discharges the reduction is even about 34%. The time to peak of the simulated hydrograph of the reforestation scenario is 20 hours longer than for the present land use.

  8. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

    PubMed

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

    2010-06-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES.

  9. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  10. A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

  11. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: An Assessment from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Digital Elevation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Frawley, J. J.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global geometric characteristics of topographically fresh impact craters have been assessed, for the first time, from gridded MOLA topography. Global trends of properties such as depth/diameter differ from previous estimates. Regional differences are observed.

  12. On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

    2016-04-01

    When aiming higher resolution in dynamical downscaling, which is common trend in CORDEX activities, the effects of land use and land use changes are playing increasing role. This is especially true for the urban areas, which in high resolution can occupy significant part of a single gridbox, if not being even bigger in case of big cities or megacities. Moreover, the role of cities will increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in cities. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been coupled with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), which can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Additionally, the version of land-surface scheme using CLM is tested and effect of the urban environment, which is included in the CLM scheme, will be assessed. Both versions will be compared and validated using EOBS data.

  13. Modelling the catchment-scale environmental impacts of wastewater treatment in an urban sewage system for CO₂ emission assessment.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Oki, Taikan

    2010-01-01

    Water shortages and water pollution are a global problem. Increases in population can have further acute effects on water cycles and on the availability of water resources. Thus, wastewater management plays an important role in mitigating negative impacts on natural ecosystems and human environments and is an important area of research. In this study, we modelled catchment-scale hydrology, including water balances, rainfall, contamination, and urban wastewater treatment. The entire water resource system of a basin, including a forest catchment and an urban city area, was evaluated synthetically from a spatial distribution perspective with respect to water quantity and quality; the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) technique was applied to optimize wastewater treatment management with the aim of improving water quality and reducing CO₂ emissions. A numerical model was developed to predict the water cycle and contamination in the catchment and city; the effect of a wastewater treatment system on the urban region was evaluated; pollution loads were evaluated quantitatively; and the effects of excluding rainwater from the treatment system during flooding and of urban rainwater control on water quality were examined. Analysis indicated that controlling the amount of rainwater inflow to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in an urban area with a combined sewer system has a large impact on reducing CO₂ emissions because of the load reduction on the urban sewage system.

  14. Assessing Cross-Media Impacts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reiquam, Howard; And Others

    1975-01-01

    Using 1000 MW coal-fired central power stations as an example, the impacts upon other media (land, air, water) are analyzed when controls are imposed on one medium. The development of a methodology for assessing the cross-media impact of specific control technologies or strategies is illustrated. (Author/BT)

  15. Impacts of cool cities on air quality: A preliminary modeling assessment for Nashville TN, Dallas TX and Atlanta GA

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    1998-06-15

    Previous atmospheric modeling efforts that concentrated on the Los Angeles Basin suggested beneficial and significant air quality impacts from cool cities strategies. This paper discusses an extension of similar modeling efforts to three regions, Atlanta GA, Dallas - Ft. Worth TX, and Nashville TN, that experience smog and air quality problems. According to the older ozone air quality standard (120 ppb), these regions were classified as serious, moderate, and marginal, respectively, but may be out of compliance with respect to the newer, 80-ppb/8-hours standard. Results from this exploratory modeling work suggest a range of possible impacts on meteorological and air quality conditions. For example, peak ozone concentrations during each region's respective episode could be decreased by 1-6 ppb (conservative and optimistic scenarios, respectively) in Nashville, 5-15 ppb in Dallas - Fort Worth, and 5-12 ppb in Atlanta following implementation of cool cities. The reductions are generally smaller than those obtained from simulating the Los Angeles Basin but are still significant. In all regions, the simulations suggest, the net, domain-wide effects of cool cities are reductions in ozone mass and improvements in air quality. In Atlanta, Nashville, and Dallas, urban areas benefiting from reduced smog reach up to 8460, 7350, and 12870 km{sup 2} in area, respectively. Results presented in this paper should be taken as exploratory and preliminary. These will most likely change during a more comprehensive modeling study to be started soon with the support of the US Environmental Protection Agency. The main purpose of the present project was to obtain the initial data (emission inventories) for these regions, simulate meteorological conditions, and perform preliminary sensitivity analysis. In the future, additional regions will be simulated to assess the potential of cool cities in improving urban air quality.

  16. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, A. Md; Solomatine, D. P.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2015-01-01

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (spaceborne or airborne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the light detection and ranging (lidar), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30 to 90 m). On the other hand, the lidar technique is able to produce high-resolution DEMs (at around 1 m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of 1-D hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. To test model selection, the outcomes of the 1-D models were also compared, in terms of flood water levels, to the results of 2-D models (LISFLOOD-FP). The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicate that the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. lidar 1 m) to lower resolution is much less than the loss of model accuracy due

  18. Assessing the impacts of precipitation bias on distributed hydrologic model calibration and prediction accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Looper, Jonathan P.; Vieux, Baxter E.; Moreno, Maria A.

    2012-02-01

    SummaryPhysics-based distributed (PBD) hydrologic models predict runoff throughout a basin using the laws of conservation of mass and momentum, and benefit from more accurate and representative precipitation input. V flo™ is a gridded distributed hydrologic model that predicts runoff and continuously updates soil moisture. As a participating model in the second Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2), V flo™ is applied to the Illinois and Blue River basins in Oklahoma. Model parameters are derived from geospatial data for initial setup, and then adjusted to reproduce the observed flow under continuous time-series simulations and on an event basis. Simulation results demonstrate that certain runoff events are governed by saturation excess processes, while in others, infiltration-rate excess processes dominate. Streamflow prediction accuracy is enhanced when multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) are bias corrected through re-analysis of the MPE provided in the DMIP2 experiment, resulting in gauge-corrected precipitation estimates (GCPE). Model calibration identified a set of parameters that minimized objective functions for errors in runoff volume and instantaneous discharge. Simulated streamflow for the Blue and Illinois River basins, have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients between 0.61 and 0.68, respectively, for the 1996-2002 period using GCPE. The streamflow prediction accuracy improves by 74% in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency when GCPE is used during the calibration period. Without model calibration, excellent agreement between hourly simulated and observed discharge is obtained for the Illinois, whereas in the Blue River, adjustment of parameters affecting both saturation and infiltration-rate excess processes were necessary. During the 1996-2002 period, GCPE input was more important than model calibration for the Blue River, while model calibration proved more important for the Illinois River. During the verification period (2002

  19. Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, A. Md; Solomatine, D. P.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2014-07-01

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (space-borne or air-borne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30-90 m). On the other hand, LiDAR technique is able to produce a high resolution DEMs (around 1m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicates the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. LiDAR 1 m) to lower resolution are much less compared to the loss of model accuracy due to the use of low-cost DEM that have not only a lower resolution, but also a lower quality. Lastly, to better explore the sensitivity of the hydraulic models

  20. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    PubMed

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

  1. A Tool for Low Noise Procedures Design and Community Noise Impact Assessment: The Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conner, David A.; Page, Juliet A.

    2002-01-01

    To improve aircraft noise impact modeling capabilities and to provide a tool to aid in the development of low noise terminal area operations for rotorcraft and tiltrotors, the Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM) was developed by the NASA Langley Research Center and Wyle Laboratories. RNM is a simulation program that predicts how sound will propagate through the atmosphere and accumulate at receiver locations located on flat ground or varying terrain, for single and multiple vehicle flight operations. At the core of RNM are the vehicle noise sources, input as sound hemispheres. As the vehicle "flies" along its prescribed flight trajectory, the source sound propagation is simulated and accumulated at the receiver locations (single points of interest or multiple grid points) in a systematic time-based manner. These sound signals at the receiver locations may then be analyzed to obtain single event footprints, integrated noise contours, time histories, or numerous other features. RNM may also be used to generate spectral time history data over a ground mesh for the creation of single event sound animation videos. Acoustic properties of the noise source(s) are defined in terms of sound hemispheres that may be obtained from theoretical predictions, wind tunnel experimental results, flight test measurements, or a combination of the three. The sound hemispheres may contain broadband data (source levels as a function of one-third octave band) and pure-tone data (in the form of specific frequency sound pressure levels and phase). A PC executable version of RNM is publicly available and has been adopted by a number of organizations for Environmental Impact Assessment studies of rotorcraft noise. This paper provides a review of the required input data, the theoretical framework of RNM's propagation model and the output results. Code validation results are provided from a NATO helicopter noise flight test as well as a tiltrotor flight test program that used the RNM as a tool to aid in

  2. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  3. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    PubMed

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  4. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  5. Impacts assessment and trade-offs of fuel cell-based auxiliary power units. Part I: System performance and cost modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratto, Francesco; Diwekar, Urmila M.; Manca, Davide

    Auxiliary power units (APUs) are devices that can provide all or part of the non-propulsion power of a vehicle. They do not replace the main internal combustion engine, but they complement it offering low consumption, high comfort and low emissions during the idling periods of the vehicle. This work presents an integrated framework to evaluate the trade-offs between cost effectiveness, efficiency and health and environmental impacts of fuel cell power systems considering various stages of the life cycle of the device. The integrated framework has six main components, namely system level modeling, cost modeling, environmental impact assessment, health impact assessment, life cycle assessment and multi-objective optimization. In part I of these two papers, concerning the integrated framework, the first two components are described and applied to a solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power unit. All the results are validated with experimental data or other published models.

  6. A Mixed-Method Study: Assessing the BAR Model's Impact on Preservice Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rethlefsen, Ann Lyle; Park, Hyesung

    2011-01-01

    This study took place at a mid-sized, Midwestern university located in a mid-sized town. The researchers developed the BAR model to teach mathematics methods both in the classroom and in the field. The preservice teachers took Enochs, Smith, and Huinker's Mathematics Teaching Efficacy Beliefs Instrument (MTEBI) on the first and last day of class.…

  7. IMPACT OF AN UPDATED CARBON BOND MECHANISM ON PREDICTIONS FROM THE CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    An updated and expanded Carbon Bond mechanism (CB05) has been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to more accurately simulate wintertime, pristine, and high altitude situations. The CB05 mechanism has nearly twice the number of reactions compare...

  8. An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulholland, David P.; Spiga, Aymeric; Listowski, Constantino; Read, Peter L.

    2015-05-01

    Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former's climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission 'hotspots': areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently

  9. Efficacy of CBCT for assessment of impacted mandibular third molars: a review – based on a hierarchical model of evidence

    PubMed Central

    Wenzel, A

    2015-01-01

    A radiographic examination of mandibular third molars is meant to support the surgeon in establishing a treatment plan. For years panoramic (PAN) imaging has been the first choice method; however, where an overprojection is observed between the third molar and the mandibular canal and when specific signs suggest a close contact between the molar and the canal, CBCT may be indicated. The present review provides an evaluation of the efficacy of CBCT for assessment of mandibular third molars using a six-tiered hierarchical model by Fryback and Thornbury in 1991. Levels 1–3 include studies on low evidence levels mainly regarding the technical capabilities of a radiographic method and the diagnostic accuracy of the related images. Levels 4–6 include studies on a higher level of evidence and assess the diagnostic impact of a radiographic method on the treatment of the patient in addition to the outcome for the patient and society including cost calculations. Only very few high-evidence studies on the efficacy of CBCT for radiographic examination of mandibular third molars exist and, in conclusion, periapical or PAN examination is sufficient in most cases before removal of mandibular third molars. However, CBCT may be suggested when one or more signs for a close contact between the tooth and the canal are present in the two-dimensional image—if it is believed that CBCT will change the treatment or the treatment outcome for the patient. Further research on high-evidence levels is needed. PMID:25135317

  10. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  11. The origin of Pasteurella multocida impacts pathology and inflammation when assessed in a mouse model.

    PubMed

    Pors, Susanne E; Chadfield, Mark S; Sørensen, Dorte B; Offenberg, Hanne; Bisgaard, Magne; Jensen, Henrik E

    2016-04-01

    Host-pathogen interactions of Pasteurella multocida isolates of different origin were studied in a mouse model, focusing on pathology, bacterial load and expression of the metalloproteinase MMP9 and its inhibitor TIMP1. Intranasal inoculation with one of three doses (10(6), 10(4), 10(2)CFU) of an isolate from porcine pneumonia or fowl cholera showed marked differences between the two isolates. The avian isolate was highly pathogenic with severe signs of necrotizing pneumonia, liver necrosis and high bacterial load in lung and liver. Clinical signs and pathology related to the porcine isolate were dose dependent and consisted of exudative bronchopneumonia, abscess formation in liver and a lower bacterial load in lung and liver. Both isolates caused increased expression of MMP9 and TIMP1. In conclusion, evaluation and comparison of pathogenicity and host-pathogen interaction of P. multocida isolates from different hosts is possible in the intranasal murine model. PMID:27033923

  12. Assessing Climatic Impacts due to Land Use Change over Southeast Asian Maritime Continent base on Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, N.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing urbanization, deforestation, and agriculture, land use change over Southeast Asia has dramatically risen during the last decades. Large areas of peat swamp forests over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent region (10°S~20°N and 90°E~135°E) have been cleared for agricultural purposes. The Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land cover classification data show that changes in land use are dominated by conversion of peat swamp forests to oil palm plantation, open lowland or lowland mosaic categories. Nested grid simulations based on Weather Research Forecasting Version 3.6 modelling system (WRFV3.6) over the central region of the Sarawak coast are used to investigate the climatic impacts of land use change over Maritime Continent. Numerical simulations were conducted for August of 2009 for satellite derived land cover scenarios for years 2000 and 2010. The variations in cloud formation, precipitation, and regional radiative and non-radiative parameters on climate results from land use change have been assessed based on numerical simulation results. Modelling studies demonstrate that land use change such as extensive deforestation processes can produce a negative radiative forcing due to the surface albedo increase and evapotranspiration decrease, while also largely caused reduced rainfall and cloud formation, and enhanced shortwave radiative forcing and temperature over the study area. Land use and land cover changes, similar to the domain in this study, has also occurred over other regions in Southeast Asia including Indonesia and could also impact cloud and precipitation formation in these regions.

  13. The impact on revenue of physician turnover: an assessment model and experience in a large healthcare center.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, William; Misra-Hebert, Anita; Stoller, James K

    2006-01-01

    Although physician turnover in a healthcare organization can incur substantial costs, little formal attention has been given to estimating or modeling the financial impact on revenues. To address this gap in available information, the current study proposes a model by which to estimate the impact on revenue of physician turnover. We designed a financial model that accounts for the physician's departure, the search period for a successor physician, the time and rate at which the incoming physician increases initial productivity to reach the practice norm, and the ability of the remaining physicians in the practice to recover revenue during the search period. This model and the potential revenue impact underscore the importance of minimizing physician turnover and offer specific opportunities to minimize the potential revenue impact.

  14. Health impact assessment in Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Eunjeong; Lee, Youngsoo; Harris, Patrick; Koh, Kwangwook; Kim, Keonyeop

    2011-07-15

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  15. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  16. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  17. Assessing the hydrologic impacts of drainage systems in Iowa using a physically based, coupled surface water/groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acar, O.; Franz, K. J.; Simpkins, W. W.; Morrison, A.; Helmers, M. J.; Cruse, R.

    2012-12-01

    Recent large magnitude floods in Iowa have created a need for better understanding of the impacts of artificial drainage, especially tile drainage, on streamflow hydrology. This study aims to characterize the field to watershed behavior of a typical drained system in Iowa as well as represent all flow partitioning mechanisms present in these landscapes. The quantification of spatial and temporal heterogeneous water fluxes will be addressed through the application of a physically based, coupled surface water/ groundwater model. HydroGeoSphere simultaneously solves the flow and transport equations in surface, tile drain and groundwater flow pathways and the exchange fluxes between these continua. The model includes 2D overland flow, 3D groundwater flow components combined with 1D tile flow. The study area is the South Fork watershed located in north-central Iowa. Approximately 80% of the watershed is tile drained and stream discharge is highly dominated by drain flow. While previous studies have mainly focused on the subsurface drainage, we target an expanded scope to include the alterations that have been made to the surface drainage network through stream channelization and construction of ditches. By including the assessment of surface intake impacts, flow capacity of the subsurface drainage conveyance systems, and intensity of infield drainage systems, we seek to explore a thorough understanding of the effects of artificial drainage on variations in volume, rate and frequency of surface and subsurface flows as a function of the spatial scale (ranging from field to watershed extent) under a range of climatic events. Furthermore, by examining pre- and post-alteration scenarios, we will describe how land use changes have altered the hydrologic behavior of South Fork watershed. In order to enhance calibration and validation of the model, (in addition to existing data) selected field monitoring is planned. Hydraulic head distributions and nested discharge data (tile

  18. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karlson, Mårten Mörtberg, Ulla Balfors, Berit

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  19. The potential and limitations of utilising head impact injury models to assess the likelihood of significant head injury in infants after a fall.

    PubMed

    Cory, C Z; Jones, M D; James, D S; Leadbeatter, S; Nokes, L D

    2001-12-01

    The use of engineering principles in assessing head injury scenarios is of increasing significance in investigations into suspected child abuse. A fall scenario is often given as the history for a head injury to an infant. This paper addresses the basic engineering principles and factors to be considered when calculating the severity of a head impact after free-fall. The application of head injury models (HIMs) to ascertain the forces involved in childhood head injuries from impact is also discussed. Previous studies including Duhaime et al. [J. Neurosurg. 66 (1987) 409] and Nokes et al. [Forensic Sci. Int. 79 (1995) 85] have utilised HIMs for this purpose: this paper reviews those models most widely documented.The HIM currently considered the 'state-of-the-art' is the head injury criterion (HIC) and it is suggested that this model should be utilised for assessing head impact injury in child abuse cases where appropriate.

  20. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (videotape)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Originally developed for the US EPA Regions, this presentation is available to the general public via the internet. The presentation focuses on the basics of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) including the ISO 14040 series framework and a quick overview of each of the steps wi...

  1. Multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge in three different regional scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, Tobias; Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Aich, Valentin; Yang, Tao

    2014-05-01

    Projections of climate impacts should be provided at the regional scale using validated regional-scale models in order to supply more reliable results for decision makers and managers. In the last decade climate impact assessment was performed for different regions and sectors using different scenarios and tools. However, the results are hardly comparable and do not allow to create a full picture of impacts and to evaluate their robustness. This study aims at comparing climate impacts on seasonal water discharge as well as on trends in projected discharge quantiles. Uncertainties from different sources are evaluated. The intercomparison of impacts was done for three regions on three continents which are characterized by very different climate and land use conditions: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow River in Asia. The climate impact assessment was performed using scenarios from five General Climate Models (GCMs). The bias-corrected climate scenarios for this study were provided by the ISI-MIP project. The following GCMs were used: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5ALR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M. The hydrological impact assessment was conducted applying the hydrological impact models HBV, SWIM and VIC. Our results suggest that the five GCMs contribute more to overall uncertainty of river discharge than the three hydrological models. Projected trends in river discharge are more variable and more often contradictory when different GCMs are compared. However, we also found significant opposite trend direction for projected river discharge using different hydrological models but the same climate input data.

  2. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    PubMed

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods.

  3. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    PubMed

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. PMID:26196068

  4. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    PubMed

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture.

  5. Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, Giulio; Leone, Mattia Federico; Del Cogliano, Davide; Sgroi, Angelo

    2013-10-01

    PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II has developed a methodology that aims to estimate, in probabilistic terms, the direct and the indirect economic impacts of a Sub-Plinian I or Strombolian type eruption of Vesuvius. The economic model has been implemented as a complementary tool of the Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a tool developed at PLINIVS Center available to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) decision makers to quantify the potential losses consequent to a possible eruption of Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei. Along the expected time history of the eruptive event all the possible "direct costs" and the "factors" (indirect costs) impacting the economic growth in the event area have been identified. Each cost factor is built up through a specific algorithm that is fed by various providers, in order to run software that will estimate the global amount of economic damage from a volcanic event. The model does not include the economic evaluation of intangibles (e.g. human casualties), while the evaluation of damage to the local cultural heritage (historical buildings, archeological sites, monuments, etc.), is linked to the economic impact on tourism, estimated into indirect costs. The architecture of the model is based on a simulation logic, which allows an evaluation of different economic impact scenarios through input changes, allowing the model to be used as a tool to support the decision making process.

  6. Use of the AGNPS model to assess impacts of development and best management practices in an urban watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) is an invaluable tool in the estimation of land use changes and spatial variability in urban areas. (Non-Point Source (NPS) models provide hypothetical opportunities to assess impacts which storm water management strategies and land use changes have on watersheds by predicting loadings on a watershed scale. This study establishes a methodology for analyzing land use changes and management associated with them by utilizing a GIS analysis of impervious surfaces and AGricultural Non- Point Source (AGNPS) modeling. The GIS analysis of Total Impervious Area (TIA) was used to quantify increases in development and provided land use data for use in AGNPS modeling in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. AGNPS modeling was executed in several different scenarios to predict changes in NPS loadings associated with increases in TIA and its subsequent management in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. Data editing, creation and extracting was completed using ArcView (3.2) GeoMedia (6) GIS systems. The GIS analysis quantified the increase in urbanization via TIA within the Bluebonnet Swamp Watershed (BSW) in East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP), Louisiana. The BSW had significant increases in urbanization in the 8 year time span of 1996 2004 causing and increase in quantity and decrease in quality of subsequent runoff. Datasets made available from the GIS analysis included TIA and the change in percentage from 1996 to 2004. This information is fundamental for the AGNPS model because it was used to calculate TIA percentages within each AGNPS cell. A 30 year daily climate file was used to execute AGNPS in different land use and storm water management scenarios within the 1100 acre BSW. Runoff qualities and quantities were then compared for different periods of 1996 and 2004. Predictions of sediment, erosion and runoff were compared according by scenario year. Management practices were also simulated by changing the Runoff

  7. The Impact of Model Misspecification on Parameter Estimation and Item-Fit Assessment in Log-Linear Diagnostic Classification Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kunina-Habenicht, Olga; Rupp, Andre A.; Wilhelm, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Using a complex simulation study we investigated parameter recovery, classification accuracy, and performance of two item-fit statistics for correct and misspecified diagnostic classification models within a log-linear modeling framework. The basic manipulated test design factors included the number of respondents (1,000 vs. 10,000), attributes (3…

  8. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  9. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  10. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat

  11. Comparative analysis of two hydrological models with different glacier parameterisations for climate impact assessment and water resources management in the Syrdarya Basin, Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gafurov, Abror; Duethmann, Doris; Agaltseva, Natalya; Merkushkin, Alexander; Pak, Alexander; Kriegel, David; Huss, Matthias; Güntner, Andreas; Merz, Bruno; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Mannig, Birgit; Paeth, Heiko; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2014-05-01

    Central Asian river basins in general and zones of run-off formation in particular are currently experiencing the impact of increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation. The headwaters thus exhibit negative glacier mass balances, decreasing glacierisation, changes in snow cover characteristics and changing runoff response. These changes are likely to intensify in future under the changing climate. Both hydropower industry and irrigated agriculture in the downstream areas strongly depend on the water amount, its seasonal and long-term distribution. This fact calls for an effort to reliably assess water availability in the runoff formation zone of Central Asia in order to improve water management policy in the region. One of the approaches to assessment of water resources is the evaluation of climate scenarios with the climate-and-hydrology model chain. Application of several models allows reducing the modeling uncertainty and proceeding with more robust water balance components assessment. We present the comparison of the two hydrological models AISHF (Automated Information System for Hydrological Forecasting) developed at the Centre for Hydrometeorology of Uzbekistan and WASA run at GFZ Potsdam, implemented for the Naryn and Karadarya basins (Syrdarya). These models use different parameterization and calibration schemes. Whereas in the AISHF model glacier dynamics is considered in scenarios of glacier area loss, the WASA model simulates continuous glacier mass balance, glacier area and volume evolution based on meteorological drivers. Consideration of initial glacier volume and its temporal dynamics can be essential for climate impact assessment in transient model simulations. The impact of climate change scenarios, developed with the regional climate model REMO at the University of Würzburg, are compared with respect to total discharge dynamics and runoff contributions from glacier, snowmelt and rainfall. Implications of water availability assessment

  12. Use and impact of usual intake models on dietary exposure estimate and risk assessment of chemical substances: a practical example for cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites.

    PubMed

    Mancini, Francesca Romana; Sirot, Véronique; Busani, Luca; Volatier, Jean-Luc; Hulin, Marion

    2015-01-01

    To estimate of food and nutrient intakes, 24-h recalls are frequently used in dietary assessment. However intake data collected for a short period are a limited estimator of long-term usual intake. An important limitation of such data is that the within-person variability tends to inflate the intake distribution leading to a biased estimation of extreme percentiles. Statistical models, named usual-intake models, that separate the within-person variability from the between-persons variability, have lately been implemented. The main objectives of this study were to highlight the potential impact that usual-intake models can have on exposure estimate and risk assessment and to point out which are the key aspects to be considered in order to run these models properly and be sure to interpret the output correctly. To achieve the goal we used the consumption data obtained by the French dietary survey INCA2 and the concentration data collected during the French TDS2, using Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software, release 8.0. For the three substances included in this study (cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites), the exposure of the upper percentiles was significantly reduced when using usual-intake models in comparison with the results obtained in the observed individual mean models, even if in terms of risk assessment the impact of using usual-intake models was limited. From the results it appears that the key aspects to consider when using usual-intake models are: (1) the normality of the log-transformed intake distribution, (2) the contribution per single food group to the total exposure, and (3) the independency of food consumption data on multiple days. In conclusion, usual-intake models may have an impact on exposure estimates although, referring to the results, it did not bring any changes in terms of risk assessment, but further investigations are needed.

  13. Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission: Kinetic impactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Michel, P.; Jutzi, M.; Rivkin, A. S.; Stickle, A.; Barnouin, O.; Ernst, C.; Atchison, J.; Pravec, P.; Richardson, D. C.

    2016-02-01

    The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation by using a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid. AIDA is an international cooperation, consisting of two mission elements: the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission and the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) rendezvous mission. The primary goals of AIDA are (i) to test our ability to perform a spacecraft impact on a potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid and (ii) to measure and characterize the deflection caused by the impact. The AIDA target will be the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos, with the deflection experiment to occur in late September, 2022. The DART impact on the secondary member of the binary at ~7 km/s is expected to alter the binary orbit period by about 4 minutes, assuming a simple transfer of momentum to the target, and this period change will be measured by Earth-based observatories. The AIM spacecraft will characterize the asteroid target and monitor results of the impact in situ at Didymos. The DART mission is a full-scale kinetic impact to deflect a 150 m diameter asteroid, with known impactor conditions and with target physical properties characterized by the AIM mission. Predictions for the momentum transfer efficiency of kinetic impacts are given for several possible target types of different porosities, using Housen and Holsapple (2011) crater scaling model for impact ejecta mass and velocity distributions. Results are compared to numerical simulation results using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code of Jutzi and Michel (2014) with good agreement. The model also predicts that the ejecta from the DART impact may make Didymos into an active asteroid, forming an ejecta coma that may be observable from Earth-based telescopes. The measurements from AIDA of the momentum transfer from the DART impact, the crater size and morphology, and the evolution of an ejecta coma will

  14. Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

    2010-08-01

    In this report we describe the 1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and 2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

  15. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  16. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  17. Model-based Impact Assessment of an Integrated Water Management Strategy on Ecosystem Services relevant to Food Security in Namibia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luetkemeier, R.; Liehr, S.

    2012-04-01

    North-central Namibia is characterized by seasonal alterations of drought and heavy rainfall, mostly saline groundwater resources and a lack of perennial rivers. Water scarcity poses a great challenge for freshwater supply, harvest and food security against the background of high population growth and climate change. CuveWaters project aims at poverty reduction and livelihood improvement on a long term basis by introducing a multi-resource-mix as part of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach. Herein, creating water buffers by rainwater harvesting (RWH) and subsurface water storage as well as reuse of treated wastewater facilitates micro-scale gardening activities. This link constitutes a major component of a sustainable adaptation strategy by contributing to the conservation and improvement of basic food and freshwater resources in order to reduce drought vulnerability. This paper presents main findings of an impact assessment carried out on the effect of integrated water resources management on ecosystem services (ESS) relevant to food security within the framework of CuveWaters project. North-central Namibia is perceived as a social-ecological system characterized by a strong mutual dependence between natural environment and anthropogenic system. This fundamental reliance on natural resources highlights the key role of ESS in semi-arid environments to sustain human livelihoods. Among other services, food provision was chosen for quantification as one of the most fundamental ESS in north-central Namibia. Different nutritional values were utilized as indicators to adopt a demand-supply approach (Ecosystem Service Profile) to illustrate the ability of the ecosystem to meet people's nutritional requirements. Calculations have been conducted using both Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty introduced by the variability of monthly precipitation and the application of plant specific water production functions. Results show that improving the

  18. Tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the ALDES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.

    2012-04-01

    The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The

  19. Models and applications for measuring the impact of health research: update of a systematic review for the Health Technology Assessment programme.

    PubMed Central

    Raftery, James; Hanney, Steve; Greenhalgh, Trish; Glover, Matthew; Blatch-Jones, Amanda

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND This report reviews approaches and tools for measuring the impact of research programmes, building on, and extending, a 2007 review. OBJECTIVES (1) To identify the range of theoretical models and empirical approaches for measuring the impact of health research programmes; (2) to develop a taxonomy of models and approaches; (3) to summarise the evidence on the application and use of these models; and (4) to evaluate the different options for the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme. DATA SOURCES We searched databases including Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and The Cochrane Library from January 2005 to August 2014. REVIEW METHODS This narrative systematic literature review comprised an update, extension and analysis/discussion. We systematically searched eight databases, supplemented by personal knowledge, in August 2014 through to March 2015. RESULTS The literature on impact assessment has much expanded. The Payback Framework, with adaptations, remains the most widely used approach. It draws on different philosophical traditions, enhancing an underlying logic model with an interpretative case study element and attention to context. Besides the logic model, other ideal type approaches included constructionist, realist, critical and performative. Most models in practice drew pragmatically on elements of several ideal types. Monetisation of impact, an increasingly popular approach, shows a high return from research but relies heavily on assumptions about the extent to which health gains depend on research. Despite usually requiring systematic reviews before funding trials, the HTA programme does not routinely examine the impact of those trials on subsequent systematic reviews. The York/Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation toolkits provide ways of assessing such impact, but need to be evaluated. The literature, as reviewed

  20. Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

  1. A coupled modeling approach to assess the impact of fuel treatments on post-wildfire runoff and erosion

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The hydrological consequences of wildfires are some of the most significant and long-lasting effects. Since wildfire severity impacts post-fire hydrological response, fuel treatments can be a useful tool for land managers to moderate this response. However, current models focus on only one aspect of...

  2. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  3. Health impact assessment in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Soeberg, Matthew

    2006-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has its origins in environmental impact assessment methodology. New Zealand's approach to health impact assessment is consistent with other countries. During the 1990s, legislation that related to the management of natural and physical resources provided the basis for public health engagement in impact assessment. In the mid 1990s, the Public Health Commission released guidelines on health impact assessment that adopted a risk assessment approach and was aimed at particular environmental projects. The transition to policy-level impact assessment occurred in 2000 with the national health strategy identifying impact assessment as one its key objectives. Guidelines developed by the Public Health Advisory Committee in 2004 have been applied in a small number of policy-level health impact assessments in New Zealand. One of these projects was the review of a Liveable Communities Plan, a policy proposal for town centre growth and development.

  4. The Impact Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClure, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    According to the author, teachers must give their students the ability to assess past, present, and new technologies, while making them aware that there is always a price to pay for any new technology. Students need to acquire the ability to make critical decisions about the world they live in and the technologies that will impact their lives. In…

  5. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

  6. Age and sex structured model for assessing the demographic impact of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Mukandavire, Z; Garira, W

    2007-08-01

    Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0-14 years) and adults (15-49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number ([Symbol: see text](0)) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.

  7. Impact damage assessment by using peridynamic theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oterkus, Erkan; Guven, Ibrahim; Madenci, Erdogan

    2012-12-01

    This study presents an application of peridynamic theory for predicting residual strength of impact damaged building components by considering a reinforced panel subjected to multiple load paths. The validity of the approach is established first by simulating a controlled experiment resulting in mixed-mode fracture of concrete. The agreement between the PD prediction and the experimentally observed behavior is remarkable especially considering the simple material model used for the concrete. Subsequently, the PD simulation concerns damage assessment and residual strength of a reinforced panel under compression after impact due to a rigid penetrator.

  8. A management tool for assessing aquaculture environmental impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: integrating hydrodynamic and pellets dispersion models.

    PubMed

    Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H; Campuzano, Francisco J

    2010-05-01

    This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations. PMID:20333379

  9. A Management Tool for Assessing Aquaculture Environmental Impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: Integrating Hydrodynamic and Pellets Dispersion Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H.; Campuzano, Francisco J.

    2010-05-01

    This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations.

  10. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Columbia River Basin Agriculture through Integrated Crop Systems, Hydrologic, and Water Management Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Kruger, C.; Yoder, J.; Marsh, T.

    2011-12-01

    The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest covers parts of US and Canada with a total drainage area of about 670,000 square kilometers. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of Columbia River water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area in the CRB. Agriculture is an important component of the economy in the region, with an annual value over $5 billion in Washington State alone. The availability of surface water for irrigation in the basin is expected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Previous climate change studies in the CRB region suggest a likelihood of increasing temperatures and a shift in precipitation patterns, with precipitation higher in the winter and lower in the summer. Warming further exacerbates summer water availability in many CRB tributaries as they shift from snowmelt-dominant towards rain-dominant hydrologic regimes. The goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on CRB water availability and agricultural production in the expectation that curtailment will occur more frequently in an altered climate. Towards this goal it is essential that we understand the interactions between crop-growth dynamics, climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, water management, and agricultural economy. To study these interactions at the regional scale, we use the newly developed crop-hydrology model VIC-CropSyst, which integrates a crop growth model CropSyst with the hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). Simulation of future climate by VIC-CropSyst captures the socio-economic aspects of this system through economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on crop patterns. This integrated framework (submitted as a separate paper) is linked to a reservoir operations simulations model, Colsim. ColSim is modified to explicitly account for agricultural withdrawals. Washington State water

  11. Incorporating social concerns in environmental impact assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Wolfe, A.K.

    1990-03-01

    Social impact assessments most often focus on the population-driven impacts of projects. Such impacts may be insignificant when compared with social structural impacts of complex, controversial projects. This set of impacts includes social disruption, social group formation, and stigma effects. The National Environmental Policy Act does not explicitly call for assessment of, and assessors often are reluctant to address, these complex issues. This paper discusses why such impacts are critical to assess and gives examples of how they have been incorporated into environmental assessment documents. 6 refs.

  12. Impacts on cropping systems of present and future extreme events assessed with various regional climate models in the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gallardo, C.; Sánchez, E.; Mínguez, M. I.

    2009-04-01

    Climate variability and extreme events in particular, are expected to increase with climate change. Several types of extreme processes, such as freezing, heat or cold waves, droughts or heavy precipitation situations are of special relevance for agricultural impacts. Not only the frequency and intensity of these events but also their timing compared to the crop development will determine their impact. Mediterranean agriculture has been reported to present important climate change impacts with related high uncertainty. In this work, crop simulation models of maize and wheat were applied in several agricultural locations of the Iberian Peninsula using climate data from a group of regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the European Project PRUDENCE. The objective was to analyze the effect of extreme events in agriculture in future climate (A2 IPCC SRES scenario for 2070-2100) in relation to current conditions (1960-1990). The use of several RCMs allows for one uncertainty evaluation associated to these processes. The analysis enabled identifying periods with maximum and minimum probability of risk related to crop development, and will help to design adaptation strategies in cropping systems to match minimum risk periods.

  13. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Baethgen, W.E.; Magrin, G.O.

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  14. Assessing the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact of Land Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model and the World Wide Web

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, B.; Engel, B.; Harbor, J.; Jones, D.; Lim, K.J.

    1999-09-22

    Assessment of the long-term hydrologic impacts of land use change is important for optimizing management practices to control runoff and non-point source (NPS) pollution associated with watershed development. Land use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, can have a significant impact on water resources. Non-point source (NPS) pollution is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the US and urban areas are an important source of NPS pollution. Despite widespread concern over the environmental impacts of land use changes such as urban sprawl, most planners, government agencies and consultants lack access to simple impact-assessment tools that can be used with readily available data. Before investing in sophisticated analyses and customized data collection, it is desirable to be able to run initial screening analyses using data that are already available. In response to this need, we developed a long-term hydrologic impact assessment technique (L-THIA) using the popular Curve Number (CN) method that makes use of basic land use, soils and long-term rainfall data. Initially developed as a spreadsheet application, the technique allows a user to compare the hydrologic impacts of past, present and any future land use change. Consequently, a NPS pollution module was incorporated to develop the L-THWNPS model. Long-term daily rainfall records are used in combination with soils and land use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. Because of the geospatial nature of land use and soils data, and the increasingly widespread use of GE by planners, government agencies and consultants, the model is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) that allows convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and provides advanced visualization of the model results. Manipulation of the land use layer, or provision of multiple land use layers (for different scenarios), allows for rapid and

  15. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  16. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods. PMID:27209791

  17. Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Ashfaq, Moetasim; Bowling, Laura C.; Cherkauer, Keith; Pal, Jeremy; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2010-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report concludes that climate change is now unequivocal, and associated increases in evaporation and atmospheric water content could intensify the hydrological cycle. However, the biases and coarse spatial resolution of global climate models limit their usefulness in hydrological impact assessment. In order to reduce these limitations, we use a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) to drive a hydrological model (variable infiltration capacity) for the full contiguous United States. The simulations cover 1961-1990 in the historic period and 2071-2100 in the future (A2) period. A quantile-based bias correction technique is applied to the times series of RegCM3-simulated precipitation and temperature. Our results show that biases in the RegCM3 fields not only affect the magnitude of hydrometeorological variables in the baseline hydrological simulation, but they also affect the response of hydrological variables to projected future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. Further, we find that changes in the intensity and occurrence of severe wet and hot events are critical in determining the sign of hydrologic change. These results have important implications for the assessment of potential future hydrologic changes, as well as for developing approaches for quantitative impacts assessment.

  18. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  19. Application of the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to Fishery Resource Issues in the Klamath River, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Sharon G.; Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John

    2010-01-01

    At the request of two offices of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) located in Yreka and Arcata, Calif., we applied the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to analyze a variety of water management concerns associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing of the Klamath hydropower projects or with ongoing management of anadromous fish stocks in the mainstem Klamath River, Oregon and California. Requested SIAM analyses include predicted effects of reservoir withdrawal elevations, use of full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoirs to augment spring flows, and predicted spawning and juvenile outmigration timing of fall Chinook salmon. In an effort to further refine the analysis of spring flow effects on predicted fall Chinook production, additional SIAM analyses were performed for predicted response to spring flow release variability from Iron Gate Dam, high and low pulse flow releases, the predicted effects of operational constraints for both Upper Klamath Lake water surface elevations, and projected flow releases specified in the Klamath Project 2006 Operations Plan (April 10, 2006). Results of SIAM simulations to determine flow and water temperature relationships indicate that up to 4 degrees C of thermal variability can be attributed to flow variations, but the effect is seasonal. Much more of thermal variability can be attributed to air temperature variations, up to 6 degrees C. Reservoirs affect the annual thermal signature by delaying spring warming by about 3 weeks and fall cooling by about 2 weeks. Multi-level release outlets on Iron Gate Dam would have limited utility; however, if releases are small (700 cfs) and a near-surface and bottom-level outlet could be blended, then water temperature may be reduced by 2-4 degrees C for a 4-week period during September. Using the full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoir, although feasible, had undesirable ramifications such as earlier spring warming, loss of

  20. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  1. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  2. Assessment of the impact of localized disturbances on SI-POF transmission using a matrix propagation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losada, M. A.; Mateo, J.; Martínez-Muro, J. J.

    2011-05-01

    Our aim is to extend the matrix approach of the power flow equation to study the effects of different devices over light propagation in step index plastic optical fibers (SI-POFs). Here we devise an experimental method to characterize a particular scrambler as a matrix which can be directly introduced into the model framework to predict transmission properties. Thus, fiber bandwidth versus length was simulated for different scrambler configurations and then compared with experimental data to verify the characterization method. A study of the scrambler effects for different launching conditions reveals important aspects of its impact on transmission.

  3. Noise impact on wildlife: An environmental impact assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bender, A.

    1977-01-01

    Various biological effects of noise on animals are discussed and a systematic approach for an impact assessment is developed. Further research is suggested to fully quantify noise impact on the species and its ecosystem.

  4. The Impact of Proposed delta Gp Limits on Glass Formulation Efforts: Part 1:. Model-Based Assessments

    SciTech Connect

    PEELER, DAVID

    2004-07-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has initiated studies to assess alternative durability options that may provide access to compositional regions of interest in support of the accelerated cleanup mission at the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). One of the options being pursued is the redefinition of the durability model acceptability limits. Some of the conservative steps used in establishing the current limits without comprising the high confidence required for meeting the specification on the wasteform quality were identified and eliminated. The results led to a set of three new Property Acceptability Region (PAR) values for the preliminary glass dissolution estimator or free energy of hydration durability model which have the potential to allow access to compositional regions of interest to improve melt rate or waste throughput. Although these limits are available for implementation, there is currently no driving force to do so (i.e., the current Frit 418 - Sludge Batch 3 (SB3) system is liquidus temperature (TL) limited). In this report, glass formulations were identified with the intent of generating incentive for applying the new durability limits for SB3. More specifically, higher alkali frit compositions were identified or developed to transition into and through the region of .Gp acceptability as defined by the current and proposed durability limits. All other property prediction criteria were satisfied. An eight glass test matrix has been identified to meet these objectives. These glasses will be fabricated in the laboratory and their durability measured and compared to model predictions (and to the assessments by the index system). Although incentive for implementation of the proposed durability limits could be demonstrated through the measured durability response for these higher alkali systems, assessments of melt rate should also be performed to establish a clear motive or driver to implement a frit change. More specifically, a

  5. Assessing the impacts of tillage and fertilization management on nitrous oxide emissions in a cornfield using the DNDC model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Qi; Hui, Dafeng; Wang, Junming; Yu, Chih-Li; Li, Changsheng; Reddy, K. Chandra; Dennis, Sam

    2016-02-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands under different agricultural management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage,and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods (i.e., nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure, and split applications) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, Tennessee, under various agricultural management treatments and run for a short term (3 years) and a long term (100 years). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil properties under different agricultural management practices. The modeled emissions of N2O significantly increased by 35% with tillage, and decreased by 24% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emission in a short term, but over a long term (100 years) the treatments significantly altered N2O emission (+35%, -10%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emission was sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining agricultural best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  6. Assessment of mineral concentration impacts from pumped stormwater on an Everglades Wetland, Florida, USA - Using a spatially-explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chunfang; Meselhe, Ehab; Waldon, Michael

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) overlays a 58,725 ha remnant of the Northern Everglades which is termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1). The Refuge is impacted by stormwater inflow from flood control pump stations which discharge to a perimeter canal system inside an impounding levee. These discharges contain elevated mineral and nutrient concentrations, with chloride concentration averaging well over 100 mg/L. It has long been established that the Refuge naturally has low mineral content softwater, and that this low-mineral condition affects the species composition of wetland periphyton that are at the base of much of the Refuge food chain. The interior marsh of the Refuge has today been termed rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic, with median chloride concentration averaging 20.5 mg/L. However, chloride concentration in rain water averages roughly 2 mg/L. The level of impact of exogenous pumped inflow on the concentration of chloride and other mineral constituents in the interior marsh has been unclear, and at times it has been debated whether atmospheric loading and evaporation can alone explain observed concentration of chloride in the interior. We applied a spatially explicit hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, MIKE FLOOD, to estimate the unimpacted condition of the interior. We compare this with simulated and monitored chloride concentrations under current conditions. The model was calibrated for a 5-year period (2000-2004), and validated for a 2-year period (2005-2006). We found that when pumped inflow concentration is reduced to an estimated rainfall chloride concentration, interior chloride concentration ranges typically below 5 mg/L. We therefore conclude that the interior chloride concentration is currently dominated by pumped inflows and should not be termed ombrotrophic. We also present initial modeling of one proposed remedial solution for reducing this impact. Our study demonstrates the feasibility

  7. Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

    2009-05-01

    HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable.

  8. Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

    2009-05-01

    HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable. PMID:19534136

  9. An atmospheric dispersion model for the environmental impact assessment of thermal power plants in Japan--a method for evaluating topographical effects.

    PubMed

    Ichikawa, Yoichi; Sada, Koichi

    2002-03-01

    An atmospheric dispersion model was developed for the environmental impact assessment of thermal power plants in Japan, and a method for evaluating topographical effects using this model was proposed. The atmospheric dispersion model consists of an airflow model with a turbulence closure model based on the algebraic Reynolds stress model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM). The evaluation of the maximum concentration of air pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and suspended particulate matter is usually considered of primary importance for environmental impact assessment. Three indices were therefore estimated by the atmospheric dispersion model: the ratios (alpha and beta, respectively) of the maximum concentration and the distance of the point of the maximum concentration from the source over topography to the respective values over a flat plane, and the relative concentration distribution [gamma(x)] along the ground surface projection of the plume axis normalized by the maximum concentration over a flat plane. The atmospheric dispersion model was applied to the topography around a power plant with a maximum elevation of more than 1,000 m. The values of alpha and beta evaluated by the atmospheric dispersion model varied between 1 and 3 and between 1 and 0.4, respectively, depending on the topographical features. These results and the calculated distributions of y(x) were highly similar to the results of the wind tunnel experiment. Therefore, when the slope of a hill or mountain is similar to the topography considered in this study, it is possible to evaluate topographical effects on exhaust gas dispersion with reasonable accuracy using the atmospheric dispersion model as well as wind tunnel experiments.

  10. RETHINKING HUMAN HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT. (R825758)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Most EIA programs around the world require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This article examines how, why, and to what extent health impacts are analyzed in environmental impact assessments in the U.S. ...

  11. Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG

  12. A process-based model of soil structure to assess the impact of biological agents, climate and reduced tillage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Couteulx, Alexis; Pérès, Guénola; Wolf, Cédric; Hallaire, Vincent

    2014-05-01

    Soil structure can be defined as the spatial arrangement of voids and solids in soil. It is a dynamic soil property due to agents' activity such as (i) mechanical action of soil tillage (ii) earthworms through their burrowing activity and faeces production and (iii) climate impact due to rain or temperature. Soil structure is often studied because of its impacts on soil functional properties, e.g. water percolation, soil water conductivity. In a context of farming practices shift towards non-ploughing techniques, it is needed to evaluate impacts on soil structure and consequently on its functional properties. Existing models have adopted two strategies to simulate soil structure: (i) to use of measured parameters to adjust a theoretical model or (ii) to build a soil structure by simulating processes that are its base. The first strategy does not deal with the difficulty to access soil structure by itself because input measured parameters are needed. The second one starts from either a virgin structure or a structure coming from strategy (i). This starting structure is then altered according to one structuring agent. At present, there is a need for such dynamic models of soil structure. They must be explicit (3D) and common for a large set of structuring agents too. They must also deal with several issues: e.g. to memorize the many voids and solids building up the soil structure or the need to be fast enough to simulate soil structure dynamics for a month, a year, etc. A first proposal, based on the strong assumption that soil is fractal, was made by Marilleau et al. (2008). In our model three structuring agents were chosen: tillage, earthworm's activity and solid particles settlement due to climate. It first focuses on the building of a computerized soil structure which is a common base to simulate the agents. It aims at being as generic as possible by using an object-oriented structure. The concept of voxel is used to split the soil into elementary units and each

  13. An assessment of the long-term environmental impacts of reusing alkaline clay on coal refuse piles with a dynamic solute transport model at a watershed scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Liang, X.; Davis, T. W.; Patterson, J.; Jaw, F. K.; Koranchie-Boah, P.

    2011-12-01

    Coal refuse piles play a significant role in producing acid mining drainage (AMD) that deteriorates water quality at a watershed scale. The waste produced from coal refuse piles results in a decrease of the pH value in soil water and river flow. Metal compounds, such as ferric and ferrous solutions, are also continuously released from the coal pile due to the extensive and complicated chemical reactions in the acidic environment. Alkaline clay, a byproduct of alumina refining process, has a high residual pH in the material. If the alkaline clay is used innovatively with the coal mine refuse, the problems associated with each (e.g., high and low pH values) are likely to be effectively resolved. In addition, the solubility of the sulfur and iron will be reduced significantly. This will effectively eliminate the AMD problem at the coal refuse pile and improve the water quality at the watershed scale. This study investigates the long-term impacts of the combined mixture (i.e., alkaline clay + coal refuse) on the environment (e.g., in the soil column and in the river system) through systematic modeling simulations in a combination with field measurements. In particular, a dynamic solute transport model that accounts for processes of the pyrite oxidation, oxygen diffusion, absorption, desorption, and advection is developed and is coupled with the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to assess the environmental impacts at the watershed scale. The model-simulated sulfur and iron concentrations are compared with field observations and the long-term impacts of the combined mixture (i.e., alkaline clay + coal refuse) on the environment are investigated. This study paves the way for monitoring and assessing the impacts of the reuse of the alkaline clay and refuse mixture on the environment at a watershed scale.

  14. Modelling the fluxes, fates and impacts of CO2 leakage, with a focus on environmental assessment and monitoring in the marine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackford, J.

    2013-12-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a primary carbon emissions mitigation strategy, predicated towards environmental and societal protection. As a relatively untested process it is prudent to examine the potential for environmental and economic consequences should there be a failure in storage or transport. Further it will be a necessity to develop an appropriate approach to regulation, monitoring and remediation, should a leakage event occur. A contextual approach is also necessary; risks and consequences of leakage can only be effectively judged against the risks and consequences of not mitigating CO2 emissions. Since in NW Europe much storage potential is sub seabed, the environmental focus of this contribution is marine. In the absence of real data pertaining to CO2 leakage from storage, modelling provides the only technology available to constrain the whole system. However this is still challenging given the requirement to assess the full spectrum of processes that might control CO2 flow from deep geology via shallow sediments, the water column and eventually to the atmosphere whilst modelling transformations and impacts (both biological and economic) en route. In the EU funded ECO2 project a chain of models representing an end to end approach to constraining leakage is being developed. The first group of models are focussed on geomechanics and multiphase fluid flow in the overburden, generating geologically realistic scenarios of CO2 flux. These feed into models that characterise biogeochemical reactions and transport in the shallow, non-consolidated sediments and predict fluxes across the sediment-water interface. These then inform models of the spread of CO2 plumes and gas bubble behaviour in the water column as impacted by hydrodynamics. The range of in-situ CO2 concentrations predicted by the sediment and water column models can then be used to drive models of ecosystem impact. Finally, based on this flux and impact assessment, models of economic valuing

  15. Geospatial analysis of spaceborne remote sensing data for assessing disaster impacts and modeling surface runoff in the built-environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wodajo, Bikila Teklu

    Every year, coastal disasters such as hurricanes and floods claim hundreds of lives and severely damage homes, businesses, and lifeline infrastructure. This research was motivated by the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster, which devastated the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The primary objective was to develop a geospatial decision-support system for extracting built-up surfaces and estimating disaster impacts using spaceborne remote sensing satellite imagery. Pre-Katrina 1-m Ikonos imagery of a 5km x 10km area of Gulfport, Mississippi, was used as source data to develop the built-up area and natural surfaces or BANS classification methodology. Autocorrelation of 0.6 or higher values related to spectral reflectance values of groundtruth pixels were used to select spectral bands and establish the BANS decision criteria of unique ranges of reflectance values. Surface classification results using GeoMedia Pro geospatial analysis for Gulfport sample areas, based on BANS criteria and manually drawn polygons, were within +/-7% of the groundtruth. The difference between the BANS results and the groundtruth was statistically not significant. BANS is a significant improvement over other supervised classification methods, which showed only 50% correctly classified pixels. The storm debris and erosion estimation or SDE methodology was developed from analysis of pre- and post-Katrina surface classification results of Gulfport samples. The SDE severity level criteria considered hurricane and flood damages and vulnerability of inhabited built-environment. A linear regression model, with +0.93 Pearson R-value, was developed for predicting SDE as a function of pre-disaster percent built-up area. SDE predictions for Gulfport sample areas, used for validation, were within +/-4% of calculated values. The damage cost model considered maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction costs related to infrastructure damage and community impacts of Hurricane Katrina. The developed

  16. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O`Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area.

  17. Assessing Receiving Water Quality Impacts due to Flow Path Alteration in Residential Catchments, using the Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolosoff, S. E.; Duncan, J.; Endreny, T.

    2001-05-01

    The Croton water supply system, responsible for supplying approximately 10% of New York City's water, provides an opportunity for exploration into the impacts of significant terrestrial flow path alteration upon receiving water quality. Natural flow paths are altered during residential development in order to allow for construction at a given location, reductions in water table elevation in low lying areas and to provide drainage of increased overland flow volumes. Runoff conducted through an artificial drainage system, is prevented from being attenuated by the natural environment, thus the pollutant removal capacity inherent in most natural catchments is often limited to areas where flow paths are not altered by development. By contrasting the impacts of flow path alterations in two small catchments in the Croton system, with different densities of residential development, we can begin to identify appropriate limits to the re-routing of runoff in catchments draining into surface water supplies. The Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model (SWMM) will be used as a tool to predict the runoff quantity and quality generated from two small residential catchments and to simulate the potential benefits of changes to the existing drainage system design, which may improve water quality due to longer residence times.

  18. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Einheuser, Matthew D.; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P.; Woznicki, Sean A.

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  19. Linking biological integrity and watershed models to assess the impacts of historical land use and climate changes on stream health.

    PubMed

    Einheuser, Matthew D; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P; Woznicki, Sean A

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R (2) = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  20. Multiscale plume modeling of the Deepwater Horizon oil-well blowout for environmental impact assessment and mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Socolofsky, S. A.; Rezvani, M.

    2010-12-01

    The accidental blowout plume of the Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil well is an unprecedented event that will have far-reaching environmental, economic, and societal impact. The subsurface structure of the blowout plume, including its layered system of intrusions, conforms qualitatively to that predicted in the literature; however, new modeling tools are currently needed to produce highly-resolved predictions of such a complex plume in the stratified and flowing ocean. We present laboratory experiments of multiphase plumes in stratification and crossflow to understand the physical mechanisms that lead to separation among the buoyant dispersed phases (oil and gas) and the entrained and dissolved constituents in the continuous phase. Scale analysis indicates that the DH plume is stratification dominated, and observed locations of hydrocarbon intrusion layers agree well with the experimentally derived empirical scaling laws. New flow visualization measurements in gas plumes in stratification demonstrate that unsteady plume oscillation and detrainment events result from regular shedding of coherent structures on the order of the plume width and are not directly related to the stratification frequency. Similar particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements in weak crossflows characterize the transport mechanisms in the plume wake. The results of these experiments will be used in the context of a National Science Foundation RAPID grant to validate a nested large eddy simulations (LES) / Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model of the DH plume, and early results from this model demonstrate its feasibility to capture the unsteady and complex structure of the plume evolution.

  1. Human and ecotoxicological impacts assessment from the Mexican oil industry in the Coatzacoalcos region, as revealed by the USEtox model.

    PubMed

    Morales-Mora, M A; Rodríguez-Pérez, B; Martínez-Delgadillo, S A; Rosa-Domínguez, E; Nolasco-Hipólito, C

    2014-01-01

    Human and ecotoxicological impacts were analyzed in the lower basin of the Coatzacoalcos River (Veracruz, State in Mexico). High pollution levels of contaminants from the oil industry have been reported in natural streams and the Coatzacoalcos River and in their sediments. USEtox model was employed to evaluate environmental fate, exposure, and effect of nine organic compounds (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and one of which was in the group of polychlorinated biphenyls), a heavy metal (lead), and the effect of the industrial wastewater emitted into the river, on the Coatzacoalcos region. Most of these compounds are highly toxic; they bioaccumulate in human and animal tissue, mainly in the fatty tissues and can damage different organs and systemic targets such as the liver, kidney, hormonal system, nervous system, etc., of both humans and wildlife. The model estimates that 96% (3,247 kg/day) of organic compounds is transferred from the water into air, whereas only 4% (151 kg/day) remains in the water. In addition, it predicts that humans are mainly exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) congeners (28 and 153) by eating contaminated fish, due to PCBs accumulating in the fish fat tissue. The number of cases of cancer and noncancer (1 in 862 habitants per additional kilogram) is expected to have an increment due to the higher PCBs exposure of human population. Genetic damages in fishes, earthworms, and toads have been observed and related to higher exposure to organic compounds. The relationship between the field reported data and those one predicted by the USEtox model have been confirmed empirically by using the nonparametric correlation analysis (Spearman's rho). Based on the USEtox model, the environmental stress in the Coatzacoalcos industrial zone is between 2 and 6 orders of magnitude over geometric mean of acute aquatic EC₅₀s. We think that USEtox model can be used to expand the number of substances that have the current water quality guidelines to

  2. Assessing the Impacts of Tillage and Fertilization Management on Nitrous Oxide Emissions in a Cornfield Using the DNDC Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, D.; Deng, Q.; Wang, J.; Yu, C. L.; Li, C.; Reddy, C.; Dennis, S.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands for multiple management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage, and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, TN under various management treatments and run for a short term (3 yrs) and a long term (100 yrs). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil and climate conditions under different tillage, alternative use of N fertilizer sources or application methods (i.e. nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure and split applications), given that the model was parameterized based on the measured crop growths for each treatment. The emissions of N2O significantly increased by 29% with tillage, and decreased by 26% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with the no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emissions in a short term, but over a long term (100 yrs) they might significantly alter N2O emission (+30%, -12%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emissions were sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining the best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  4. Impact of the Fenton process in meat digestion as assessed using an in vitro gastro-intestinal model.

    PubMed

    Oueslati, Khaled; de La Pomélie, Diane; Santé-Lhoutellier, Véronique; Gatellier, Philippe

    2016-10-15

    The production of oxygen free radicals catalysed by non-haem iron was investigated in an in vitro mimetic model of the digestive tract using specific chemical traps. Superoxide radicals (O2(∗-)) and their protonated form (hydroperoxyl radicals, HO2(∗)) were detected by the reduction of nitroblue tetrazolium into formazan, and hydroxyl radicals (OH(∗)) were detected by the hydroxylation of terephthalate. Under gastric conditions, O2(∗-)/HO2(∗) were detected in higher quantity than OH(∗). Increasing the pH from 3.5 to 6.5 poorly affected the kinetics of free radical production. The oxidations generated by these free radicals were estimated on myofibrils prepared from pork rectus femoris muscle. Myofibrillar lipid and protein oxidation increased with time and oxidant concentration, with a negative impact on the digestibility of myofibrillar proteins. Plant food antioxidants considerably decreased free radical production and lipid oxidation but not protein oxidation. PMID:27173532

  5. Assessing the regional impact of Indonesian biomass burning emissions based on organic molecular tracers and chemical mass balance modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engling, G.; He, J.; Betha, R.; Balasubramanian, R.

    2014-01-01

    Biomass burning activities commonly occur in Southeast Asia (SEA), and are particularly intense in Indonesia during dry seasons. The effect of biomass smoke emissions on air quality in the city state of Singapore was investigated during a haze episode in October 2006. Substantially increased levels of airborne particulate matter (PM) and associated chemical species were observed during the haze period. Specifically, the enhancement in the concentration of molecular tracers for biomass combustion such as levoglucosan by as much as two orders of magnitude and diagnostic ratios of individual organic compounds indicated that biomass burning emissions caused a regional smoke haze episode due to their long-range transport by prevailing winds. With the aid of air mass back trajectories and chemical mass balance modeling, large-scale forest and peat fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan were identified as the sources of the smoke aerosol, exerting a significant impact on air quality in downwind areas, such as Singapore.

  6. Assessing the regional impact of indonesian biomass burning emissions based on organic molecular tracers and chemical mass balance modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engling, G.; He, J.; Betha, R.; Balasubramanian, R.

    2014-08-01

    Biomass burning activities commonly occur in Southeast Asia (SEA), and are particularly intense in Indonesia during the dry seasons. The effect of biomass smoke emissions on air quality in the city state of Singapore was investigated during a haze episode in October 2006. Substantially increased levels of airborne particulate matter (PM) and associated chemical species were observed during the haze period. Specifically, the enhancement in the concentration of molecular tracers for biomass combustion such as levoglucosan by as much as two orders of magnitude and the diagnostic ratios of individual organic compounds indicated that biomass burning emissions caused a regional smoke haze episode due to their long-range transport by prevailing winds. With the aid of air mass backward trajectories and chemical mass balance modeling, large-scale forest and peat fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan were identified as the sources of the smoke aerosol, exerting a significant impact on air quality in downwind areas, such as Singapore.

  7. USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Bachmann, Till M.; Swirsky Gold, Lois; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Jolliet, Olivier; Juraske, Ronnie; Koehler, Annette; Larsen, Henrik F.; MacLeod, Matthew; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E.; Payet, Jerome; Schuhmacher, Marta; van de Meent, Dik; Hauschild, Michael Z.

    2008-02-03

    provides a parsimonious and transparent tool for human health and ecosystem CF estimates. Based on a referenced database, it has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and forms the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC's Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. Recommendations and Perspectives. We provide both recommended and interim (not recommended and to be used with caution) characterisation factors for human health and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts. After a process of consensus building among stakeholders on a broad scale as well as several improvements regarding a wider and easier applicability of the model, USEtox will become available to practitioners for the calculation of further CFs.

  8. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and FJORD system.

    PubMed

    Kaste, Ø; Wright, R F; Barkved, L J; Bjerkeng, B; Engen-Skaugen, T; Magnusson, J; Saelthun, N R

    2006-07-15

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km(2)) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 degrees C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 degrees C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N

  9. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and FJORD system.

    PubMed

    Kaste, Ø; Wright, R F; Barkved, L J; Bjerkeng, B; Engen-Skaugen, T; Magnusson, J; Saelthun, N R

    2006-07-15

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km(2)) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 degrees C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 degrees C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N

  10. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis; Herrick, Courtney G.; Zeitler, Todd; Malama, Bwalya; Rudeen, David Keith; Gilkey, Amy P.

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  11. The RETHINK project--minipigs as models for the toxicity testing of new medicines and chemicals: an impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Forster, Roy; Bode, Gerd; Ellegaard, Lars; van der Laan, Jan Willem

    2010-01-01

    The objective of the RETHINK project was to evaluate the potential impact of toxicity testing in the minipig as an alternative approach in regulatory toxicity testing that can contribute to the replacement, refinement and reduction of animal testing (3Rs). Minipigs are strains of domestic pigs that are markedly smaller than farmyard varieties, and thus better adapted to laboratory housing. The pig closely resembles man in many features of its anatomy, physiology, biochemistry and lifestyle. In particular, the cardio-vascular system, skin and digestive tract are considered to be very good models for man. Because of these similarities the toxic effects of chemicals and drugs in pigs may resemble the effects in man more closely than do some other commonly used laboratory animals. The pig also has some features that make it a very practical model for laboratory studies. Finally, being a food animal, testing in the minipig may be more acceptable to the public than animals such as dogs or monkeys. Expert study groups (Working Groups) were assembled to review five different areas relating to the use of minipigs in regulatory safety testing: ethical issues, welfare and animal care, development of new medicines and chemicals, safety testing issues and emerging technologies in safety testing. Their conclusions are presented in the articles of this special issue. The RETHINK project was funded as a Specific Support Action under the European Community 6th Framework Programme.

  12. A comparison of hydrological models for assessing the impact of land use and climate change on discharge in a tropical catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornelissen, Thomas; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Giertz, Simone

    2013-08-01

    This study assesses the suitability of different model types for simulating scenarios of future discharge behaviour in a West African catchment (2344 km2) in the context of climate and land use change. The comparison of models enables the identification of possible sources of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of a tropical catchment. All models were calibrated and validated for the period from 1998 to 2005 with reasonable quality. The simulation of climate and land use change impacts on discharge behaviour results in substantial differences caused by model structure and calibration strategy. The semi-distributed conceptual model UHP-HRU is shown to be the most suitable for the simulation of current discharge dynamics because the simulated runoff components most closely match the current perception of hydrological processes based on field data interpretation. In addition, the model does not introduce new uncertainties into the simulation by imposing high data demands. All models simulate an increase in surface runoff due to land use change. The application of climate change scenarios resulted in considerable variation between the models and points not only to uncertainties in climate change scenarios but also gives an idea of the possible range of future developments. Overall, this study indicates that the major weakness of all hydrological models is their poor representation of the catchment’s soil characteristics and flow processes.

  13. Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Marmorek, David R.

    1983-01-01

    Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic

  14. Test-retest, retest, and retest: Growth curve models of repeat testing with Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT).

    PubMed

    Maerlender, Arthur C; Masterson, Caitlin J; James, Tiffany D; Beckwith, Jonathan; Brolinson, Per Gunner; Crisco, Joe; Duma, Stefan; Flashman, Laura A; Greenwald, Rick; Rowson, Steven; Wilcox, Beth; McAllister, Tom W

    2016-10-01

    Computerized neuropsychological testing has become an important tool in the identification and management of sports-related concussions; however, the psychometric effect of repeat testing has not been studied extensively beyond test-retest statistics. The current study analyzed data from Division I collegiate athletes who completed Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) baseline assessments at four sequential time points that varied over the course of their athletic careers. Administrations were part of a larger National Institutes of Health (NIH) study. Growth curve modeling showed that the two memory composite scores increased significantly with successive administrations: Change in Verbal Memory was best represented with a quadratic model, while a linear model best fit Visual Memory. Visual Motor Speed and Reaction Time composites showed no significant linear or quadratic growth. The results demonstrate the effect of repeated test administrations for memory composite scores, while speed composites were not significantly impacted by repeat testing. Acceptable test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all four composites as well.

  15. Test-retest, retest, and retest: Growth curve models of repeat testing with Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT).

    PubMed

    Maerlender, Arthur C; Masterson, Caitlin J; James, Tiffany D; Beckwith, Jonathan; Brolinson, Per Gunner; Crisco, Joe; Duma, Stefan; Flashman, Laura A; Greenwald, Rick; Rowson, Steven; Wilcox, Beth; McAllister, Tom W

    2016-10-01

    Computerized neuropsychological testing has become an important tool in the identification and management of sports-related concussions; however, the psychometric effect of repeat testing has not been studied extensively beyond test-retest statistics. The current study analyzed data from Division I collegiate athletes who completed Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) baseline assessments at four sequential time points that varied over the course of their athletic careers. Administrations were part of a larger National Institutes of Health (NIH) study. Growth curve modeling showed that the two memory composite scores increased significantly with successive administrations: Change in Verbal Memory was best represented with a quadratic model, while a linear model best fit Visual Memory. Visual Motor Speed and Reaction Time composites showed no significant linear or quadratic growth. The results demonstrate the effect of repeated test administrations for memory composite scores, while speed composites were not significantly impacted by repeat testing. Acceptable test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all four composites as well. PMID:27266563

  16. A method for the assessment of site-specific economic impacts of commercial and industrial biomass energy facilities. A handbook and computer model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    A handbook on ``A Method for the Assessment of Site-specific Econoomic Impacts of Industrial and Commercial Biomass Energy Facilities`` has been prepared by Resource Systems Group Inc. under contract to the Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program (SERBEP). The handbook includes a user-friendly Lotus 123 spreadsheet which calculates the economic impacts of biomass energy facilities. The analysis uses a hybrid approach, combining direct site-specific data provided by the user, with indirect impact multipliers from the US Forest Service IMPLAN input/output model for each state. Direct economic impacts are determined primarily from site-specific data and indirect impacts are determined from the IMPLAN multipliers. The economic impacts are given in terms of income, employment, and state and federal taxes generated directly by the specific facility and by the indirect economic activity associated with each project. A worksheet is provided which guides the user in identifying and entering the appropriate financial data on the plant to be evaluated. The WLAN multipliers for each state are included in a database within the program. The multipliers are applied automatically after the user has entered the site-specific data and the state in which the facility is located. Output from the analysis includes a summary of direct and indirect income, employment and taxes. Case studies of large and small wood energy facilities and an ethanol plant are provided as examples to demonstrate the method. Although the handbook and program are intended for use by those with no previous experience in economic impact analysis, suggestions are given for the more experienced user who may wish to modify the analysis techniques.

  17. Establishment of a high-resolution emission inventory and its impact assessment on air quality modeling in Jiangsu Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Zhao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A high-resolution emission inventory of Jiangsu Province was developed for 2012, using the bottom-up method with the best available domestic emission factors and activity data incorporated. Information of over 6,000 point sources including geographical location, fuel type, burner type and removal efficiency were investigated from various available data sources. The point sources were estimated to account for 83.9%, 71.2%, 63.7% and 54.5% of the total SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and VOCs emissions respectively. Improvement of this provincial emission inventory was assessed by comparisons with emission estimation at national level. For SO2 from power plants, NOx from transportation and PM2.5 from industry, correlation coefficients were 0.703, 0.814 and 0.335, indicated other than power plants and transportation, there was an improvement in estimation of small industrial pollution sources which were usually estimated as area sources in national emission inventory. Correlation analysis of NOx emission and tropospheric NO2 vertical column density measured by Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were also conducted. The correlation coefficient rose from 0.52 to 0.57 after revisions on geographical locations of 20 large point sources. Such result indicated the local source information from Environmental Statistics should be carefully examined before it can be applied for emission inventory development. In order to assess the improvement in spatial distribution and emission estimation on air quality modeling, the provincial and national emission inventory were input to Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) simulations. Simulations performed better when emissions were updated from Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) to provincial inventory, indicating the necessity of improved spatial and temporal distribution of emissions on air quality modeling, especially for gaseous pollutants. For SO2, the normalized mean bias (NMB) and normalized mean error (NME) decreased

  18. A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories - evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan.

    PubMed

    Mancebo Quintana, S; Martín Ramos, B; Casermeiro Martínez, M A; Otero Pastor, I

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials). This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km(2). In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html). The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories. PMID:20096502

  19. A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories - evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan.

    PubMed

    Mancebo Quintana, S; Martín Ramos, B; Casermeiro Martínez, M A; Otero Pastor, I

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials). This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km(2). In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html). The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories.

  20. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures.

  1. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures. PMID:26318547

  2. A USCLVAR Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2009-01-01

    The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of

  3. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts.

    PubMed

    Iskandar, Anita R; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-09-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air-liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model.

  4. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts.

    PubMed

    Iskandar, Anita R; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-09-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air-liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model. PMID:26085348

  5. Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated hydrology-geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)-Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS-Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non-negligible probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate "alternatives." This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment yield is already so

  6. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  7. Integrating Land Conservation and Renewable Energy Goals in California: Assessing Land Use and Economic Cost Impacts Using the Optimal Renewable Energy Build-Out (ORB) Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. C.; Schlag, N. H.; Cameron, D. R.; Brand, E.; Crane, L.; Williams, J.; Price, S.; Hernandez, R. R.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    There is a lack of understanding of the environmental impacts and economic costs of potential renewable energy (RE) siting decisions that achieve ambitious RE targets. Such analyses are needed to inform policy recommendations that minimize potential conflicts between conservation and RE development. We use the state of California's rapid development of utility-scale RE as a case study to examine how possible land use constraints impact the total electricity land area, areas with conservation value, water use, and electricity cost of ambitious RE portfolios. We developed the Optimal Renewable energy Build-out (ORB) model, and used it in conjunction with the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Calculator, a RE procurement and transmission planning tool used by utilities within California, to generate environmentally constrained renewable energy potential and assess the cost and siting-associated impacts of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power (CSP), and geothermal technologies. We find that imposing environmental constraints on RE development achieves lower conservation impacts and results in development of more fragmented land areas. With increased RE and environmental exclusions, generation becomes more widely distributed across the state, which results in more development on herbaceous agricultural vegetation, grasslands, and developed & urban land cover types. We find land use efficiencies of RE technologies are relatively inelastic to changes in environmental constraints, suggesting that cost-effective substitutions that reduce environmental impact and achieve RE goals is possible under most scenarios and exclusion categories. At very high RE penetration that is limited to in-state development, cost effectiveness decreases substantially under the highest level of environmental constraint due to the over-reliance on solar technologies. This additional cost is removed once the in-state constraint is lifted, suggesting that minimizing both negative

  8. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  9. Health and impact assessment: Are we seeing closer integration?

    SciTech Connect

    Morgan, Richard K.

    2011-07-15

    Health has always had a place in wider impact assessment activities, from the earliest days of the National Environmental Policy Act in the United States. However, early thinking tended to focus on health protection and environmental health issues, especially in relation to the effects of pollution. The adoption of wider models of health was reflected in impact assessment circles from the early 1990s, with particular emphasis on an integrated approach to impact assessment, especially at the project level, which would see health impact assessment benefiting from working with other forms of impact assessment, such as social and ecological. Yet twenty years later, integration still seems a distant prospect in many countries. In this paper I examine the case for integrating health considerations within the wider IA process, discuss some of the problems that have historically restricted progress towards this end, and explore the degree to which impact assessment practitioners have been successful in seeking to improve the consideration of health in IA. In New Zealand, project-level impact assessment is based on an integrated model under the Resource Management Act. In addition, HIA was recognised in the early 1990s as a valuable addition to the toolkit for project assessment. Since then policy-level HIA has grown supported by extensive capacity building. If health is being integrated into wider impact assessment, it should be happening in New Zealand where so many enabling conditions are met. Three major project proposals from New Zealand are examined, to characterise the broad trends in HIA development in New Zealand in the last ten years and to assess the degree to which health concerns are being reflected in wider impact assessments. The findings are discussed in the context of the issues outlined in the early part of the paper.

  10. Impact of food intake on in vivo VOC concentrations in exhaled breath assessed in a caprine animal model.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Sina; Bergmann, Andreas; Steffens, Markus; Trefz, Phillip; Ziller, Mario; Miekisch, Wolfram; Schubert, Jochen S; Köhler, Heike; Reinhold, Petra

    2015-12-01

    Physiological processes within the body may change emitted volatile organic compound (VOC) composition, and may therefore cause confounding biological background variability in breath gas analyses. To evaluate the effect of food intake on VOC concentration patterns in exhaled breath, this study assessed the variability of VOC concentrations due to food intake in a standardized caprine animal model. VOCs in (i) alveolar breath gas samples of nine clinically healthy goats and (ii) room air samples were collected and pre-concentrated before morning feeding and repeatedly after (+60 min, +150 min, +240 min) using needle trap microextraction (NTME). Analysis of VOCs was performed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Only VOCs with significantly higher concentrations in breath gas samples compared to room air samples were taken into consideration. Six VOCs that belonged to the chemical classes of hydrocarbons and alcohols were identified presenting significantly different concentrations before and after feeding. Selected hydrocarbons showed a concentration pattern that was characterized by an initial increase 60 min after food intake, and a subsequent gradual decrease. Results emphasize consideration of physiological effects on exhaled VOC concentrations due to food intake with respect to standardized protocols of sample collection and critical evaluation of results. PMID:26670078

  11. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish.

    PubMed

    Luizza, Matthew W; Evangelista, Paul H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management. PMID:27003689

  12. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  13. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  14. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Poyer, David A.; Butler, John G.

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  15. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  16. Environmental Impact Assessment and Space Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viikari, L.

    least more open distribution of information about human enterprises in space, too.However, the "public concerned" in space activities may cover the entire humanity, which would most likely direct the possible spatial EIA procedures into the auspices of the UN, with states representing their portion of the "public". Despite the peculiarities in assessing the potential impacts of space activities, Environmental Impact Assessment, modified to answer thes e particular features, would seem as a tool worth considering for the above objectives of enhanced environmental protection and public involvement. This is particularly true, as any adverse environmental impacts of space activities are highly difficult to mitigate, once they have materialized. For the above mentioned reasons, and for the fact that space activities are regulated for a major part on policy level, particularly Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) would seem a viable option. As distinct from the project EIA, the SEA means carrying out EIAs of plans themselves, i.e. it directly addresses the environmental implications of proposed strategies and policies. Formerly, the governmental authorities tended to regard SEA with suspicion because of the public interest groups involvement in policy making that the SEA entails. However, currently the SEA is a highly topical issue in the international arena, particularly because of the ongoing discussions within the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe about adopting a Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to amend the Espoo Convention, and of the recent EU Directive (2001/42/EC) on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on t he environment. These instruments could also serve as feasible models for SEA in the outer space environment.

  17. Multi-Target Calibration with a VIC Hydrologic Model: Impacts of Climate Change and Risk Assessment in the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wi, S.; Isenstein, L.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is applied to the headwaters of the Arkansas River (Colorado Springs) in the USA for the purpose of water supply evaluation. Modeling the hydrologic regime of the Arkansas River is a challenge due to the large number of diversions and regulations that might impact the natural streamflow. Since the Arkansas River headwaters are snow-melt dominated, a snow cover dataset can provide additional information during the model calibration process. Remote sensing snow data have been successfully used in previous studies coupled with hydrologic modeling to improve calibration results. Using the daily snow data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and this study tests different calibration schemes to determine the most suitable calibration target(s) for the Colorado Springs. First, the VIC model is calibrated to streamflow and snow alone, and then a mutli-objective optimization is utilized to calibrate the model to streamflow and snow simultaneously. A well calibrated hydrologic model can be employed particularly for climate change assessments to inform decision makers about water availability and water supply under different climate conditions. This study will provide such information to Colorado Springs in which development in terms of water supply is expected to grow considerably; increases in demands are projected to be 28% higher than the present demands (approximately 102 billion gallons) by the year 2050.

  18. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Heaberlin, S.W.; Burnham, J.B.; Gallucci, R.H.V.; Mullen, M.F.; Nesse, R.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.; Triplett, M.B.; Weakley, S.A.; Wusterbarth, A.R.

    1983-12-01

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues.

  19. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  20. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Rivkin, A.; Reed, C.

    2012-12-01

    To protect the Earth from a hazardous asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. AIDA, consisting of two mission elements, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, is a demonstration of asteroid deflection. To date, there has been no such demonstration, and there is major uncertainty in the result of a spacecraft impact onto an asteroid, that is, the amount of deflection produced by a given momentum input from the impact. This uncertainty is in part due to unknown physical properties of the asteroid surface, such as porosity and strength, and in part due to poorly understood impact physics such that the momentum carried off by ejecta is highly uncertain. A first mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection would not only be a major step towards gaining the capability to mitigate an asteroid hazard, but in addition it would return unique information on an asteroid's strength, other surface properties, and internal structure. This information return would be highly relevant to future human exploration of asteroids. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART spacecraft impactor study is coordinated with an ESA study of the AIM mission, which would rendezvous with the same asteroid to measure effects of the impact. Unlike the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid. DART includes ground-based observations to measure the deflection independently of the rendezvous spacecraft observations from AIM, which also measures deflection and provides detailed characterization of the target asteroid. The joint mission AIDA

  1. An Earth Penetrating Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Stokes, E; Yarrington, P; Glenn, L

    2005-06-21

    Documentation of a study to assess the capability of computer codes to predict lateral loads on earth penetrating projectiles under conditions of non-normal impact. Calculations simulated a set of small scale penetration tests into concrete targets with oblique faces at angles of 15 and 30 degrees to the line-of-flight. Predictive codes used by the various calculational teams cover a wide range of modeling approaches from approximate techniques, such as cavity expansion, to numerical methods, such as finite element codes. The modeling assessment was performed under the auspices of the Phenomenology Integrated Product Team (PIPT) for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Program (RNEP). Funding for the penetration experiments and modeling was provided by multiple earth penetrator programs.

  2. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  3. Development of a Kelp-type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Gill, Gary A.

    2014-02-07

    In recent years, with the rapid growth of global energy demand, the interest in extracting uranium from seawater for nuclear energy has been renewed. While extracting seawater uranium is not yet commercially viable, it serves as a “backstop” to the conventional uranium resources and provides an essentially unlimited supply of uranium resource. With recent advances in seawater uranium extraction technology, extracting uranium from seawater could be economically feasible when the extraction devices are deployed at a large scale (e.g., several hundred km2). There is concern however that the large scale deployment of adsorbent farms could result in potential impacts to the hydrodynamic flow field in an oceanic setting. In this study, a kelp-type structure module was incorporated into a coastal ocean model to simulate the blockage effect of uranium extraction devices on the flow field. The module was quantitatively validated against laboratory flume experiments for both velocity and turbulence profiles. The model-data comparison showed an overall good agreement and validated the approach of applying the model to assess the potential hydrodynamic impact of uranium extraction devices or other underwater structures in coastal oceans.

  4. Multilevel-multifaceted approach to assessing the impact of technology-mediated modeling practice on student understanding of the particulate nature of matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Hsin-Yi

    Computer animations or dynamic models may support students' visualization of dynamic processes or abstract relationships. However, research has shown mixed results for the effect of instructional animation on student learning. More studies are needed to advance the understanding of the theoretical foundation and educational value of instructional animation. In this study I explored the use of technology-mediated modeling practices to augment the impact of an animation tool, Chemation, in seventh-grade science classrooms. Chemation can mediate students' modeling practices including designing, interpreting and evaluating animations. The purpose of this study is to discern the impact of these technology-mediated modeling practices on students' chemistry understanding by employing a systematic approach of research methods. I compared student learning in three treatments: students (1) design, interpret, and evaluate animations, (2) only design and interpret animations, and (3) only view teacher-made animations and interpret the animation. Eight seventh-grade classes (271 students) were randomly assigned to the treatments. I examined multiple measures including students' worksheets and animations, selected students' post-instructional interviews, and pre- and post-instructional chemistry achievement tests to assess three facets of chemistry understanding: (1) adequate chemistry content knowledge, (2) mastered representation skill, and (3) coherent conceptual framework. I also examined students' cognitive strategies demonstrated as they constructed animations of molecular processes during the interview. The results of the multiple measures consistently indicate that the complete combination of the technology-mediated modeling practices better supported student development of chemistry understanding, revealing that designing animation coupled with peer-evaluation is an effective approach to the use of instructional animation. Moreover, the designing approach prompts

  5. The Impact of an Alternative Professional Development Model on Teacher Practices in Formative Assessment and Student Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Jack; Myran, Steve; Strauss, Richard; Reed, William

    2014-01-01

    Among contemporary means of enhancing student learning, formative assessment is perhaps one of the most important and effective. While formative assessment ideas and practices have been shown to have a proven record enhancing student learning, these practices are slow to be fully integrated into teachers' day-to-day classroom practices. This…

  6. Modeling the Vakhsh Cascade in the Amu Darya River Basin - Implementing Future Storage Facilities in a Hydrological Model for Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, J. F.; Siegfried, T.; Yakovlev, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the Amu Darya River Basin in Central Asia, the Vakhsh catchment in Tajikistan is a major source of hydropower energy for the country. With a number of large dams already constructed, upstream Tajikistan is interested in the construction of one more large dam and a number of smaller storage facilities with the prospect of supplying its neighboring states with hydropower through a newly planned power grid. The impact of new storage facilities along the river is difficult to estimate and causes considerable concern and consternation among the downstream users. Today, it is one of the vexing poster child studies in international water conflict that awaits resolution. With a lack of meteorological data and a complex topography that makes application of remote sensed data difficult it is a challenge to model runoff correctly. Large parts of the catchment is glacierized and ranges from just 500 m asl to peaks above 7000 m asl. Based on in-situ time series for temperature and precipitation we find local correction factors for remote sensed products. Using this data we employ a model based on the Budyko framework with an extension for snow and ice in the higher altitude bands. The model furthermore accounts for groundwater and soil storage. Runoff data from a number of stations are used for the calibration of the model parameters. With an accurate representation of the existing and planned reservoirs in the Vakhsh cascade we study the potential impacts from the construction of the new large reservoir in the river. Impacts are measured in terms of a) the timing and availability of new hydropower energy, also in light of its potential for export to South Asia, b) shifting challenges with regard to river sediment loads and siltation of reservoirs and c) impacts on downstream runoff and the timely availability of irrigation water there. With our coupled hydro-climatological approach, the challenges of optimal cascade management can be addressed so as to minimize detrimental

  7. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Andrew F.; Rivkin, A.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Reed, C.

    2012-10-01

    Near Earth objects are small bodies orbiting the Sun near Earth’s orbit, some of which impact the Earth. The impact of an object as large as 30 m in diameter occurs every few centuries. The impact of such an object would already release an energy of at least a megaton of TNT, and the impact of a larger object, which would occur less often, would be even more hazardous. To protect the Earth from a potential asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is such an asteroid mitigation mission concept. This mission would be a valuable precursor to human spaceflight to an asteroid, as it would return unique information on an asteroid’s strength and internal structure and would be particularly relevant to a human mission for asteroid mitigation. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART study is coordinated with an ESA study of an Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, which would rendezvous with the same target. AIDA follows the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, with the objective of demonstrating the ability to modify the trajectory of an asteroid and measure the trajectory change. Don Quijote involved an orbiter and an impactor spacecraft, with the orbiter arriving first and measuring the deflection, and with the orbiter making additional characterization measurements. Unlike Don Quijote, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid, with ground-based observations to measure the deflection as well as additional spacecraft observations from AIM. Low cost mission approaches will be presented.

  8. Linking Global to Regional Models to Assess Future Climate Impacts on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    The UCD sectional aerosol model has been coupled to the CMAQ air quality model and used to simulate air quality in Tampa, Florida. Sea salt emissions are parameterized as a function of modeled wind speed and relative humidity. Modeled aerosol sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sodium,...

  9. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  10. The Strategic Assessment Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glazner, Steve, Ed.

    This book presents six papers focusing on the application of the strategic assessment model (SAM) to the management of higher education facilities. The papers are part of an ongoing effort by the Association of Higher Education Facilities Officers to provide comparative cost and staffing information and to develop a benchmarking process. The…

  11. LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT SOPHISTICATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    An international workshop was held in Brussels on 11/29-30/1998, to discuss LCIA Sophistication. LCA experts from North America, Europs, and Asia attended. Critical reviews of associated factors, including current limitations of available assessment methodologies, and comparison...

  12. Catalysis-by-design impacts assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Fassbender, L L; Young, J K; Sen, R K

    1991-05-01

    Catalyst researchers have always recognized the need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms of catalytic processes, and have hoped that it would lead to developing a theoretical predictive base to guide the search for new catalysts. This understanding allows one to develop a set of hierarchical models, from fundamental atomic-level ab-initio models to detailed engineering simulations of reactor systems, to direct the search for optimized, efficient catalyst systems. During the last two decades, the explosions of advanced surface analysis techniques have helped considerably to develop the building blocks for understanding various catalytic reactions. An effort to couple these theoretical and experimental advances to develop a set of hierarchical models to predict the nature of catalytic materials is a program entitled Catalysis-by-Design (CRD).'' In assessing the potential impacts of CBD on US industry, the key point to remember is that the value of the program lies in developing a novel methodology to search for new catalyst systems. Industrial researchers can then use this methodology to develop proprietary catalysts. Most companies involved in catalyst R D have two types of ongoing projects. The first type, what we call market-driven R D,'' are projects that support and improve upon a company's existing product lines. Project of the second type, technology-driven R D,'' are longer term, involve the development of totally new catalysts, and are initiated through scientists' research ideas. The CBD approach will impact both types of projects. However, this analysis indicates that the near-term impacts will be on market-driven'' projects. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report were obtained by the authors through personal interviews with individuals involved in a variety of industrial catalyst development programs and through the three CBD workshops held in the summer of 1989. 34 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  13. Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Health Impact Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a methodology for incorporating considerations of public health into planning and decision-making processes. HIA promotes interdisciplinary action, stakeholder participation, and timeliness and takes into account equity, sustainability, and...

  14. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  15. Old Dog New Tricks: Use of Point-based Crop Models in Grid-based Regional Assessment of Crop Management Technologies Impact on Future Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koo, J.; Wood, S.; Cenacchi, N.; Fisher, M.; Cox, C.

    2012-12-01

    HarvestChoice (harvestchoice.org) generates knowledge products to guide strategic investments to improve the productivity and profitability of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A keynote component of the HarvestChoice analytical framework is a grid-based overlay of SSA - a cropping simulation platform powered by process-based, crop models. Calibrated around the best available representation of cropping production systems in SSA, the simulation platform engages the DSSAT Crop Systems Model with the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter model (DSSAT-CENTURY) and provides a virtual experimentation module with which to explore the impact of a range of technological, managerial and environmental metrics on future crop productivity and profitability, as well as input use. For each of 5 (or 30) arc-minute grid cells in SSA, a stack of model input underlies it: datasets that cover soil properties and fertility, historic and future climate scenarios and farmers' management practices; all compiled from analyses of existing global and regional databases and consultations with other CGIAR centers. Running a simulation model is not always straightforward, especially when certain cropping systems or management practices are not even practiced by resource-poor farmers yet (e.g., precision agriculture) or they were never included in the existing simulation framework (e.g., water harvesting). In such cases, we used DSSAT-CENTURY as a function to iteratively estimate relative responses of cropping systems to technology-driven changes in water and nutrient balances compared to zero-adoption by farmers, while adjusting model input parameters to best mimic farmers' implementation of technologies in the field. We then fed the results of the simulation into to the economic and food trade model framework, IMPACT, to assess the potential implications on future food security. The outputs of the overall simulation analyses are packaged as a web-accessible database and published

  16. Devising an Environmental Impact Assessment Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Catalano, Ralph A.

    1975-01-01

    The need for personnel trained in understanding environmental impact statements has become apparent. In an attempt to fill this need, the University of California developed a program designed to produce a select number of graduates qualified to assess environmental impact statements. (MA)

  17. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  18. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region.

  19. Age structured stochastic recruitment model for assessment of power plant impact. [Simulation of striped bass population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, P.J.; Swartzman, G.L.

    1984-03-01

    The dynamics of the Hudson river striped bass (Morone saxatilis) stock were analyzed using a stochastic age structured model. The effect of river flow on recruitment was combined with the mortality due to fishing and power plant water uptake to obtain an overall effect of these variables on the fishery. Model equations and parameters were documented and their underlying assumptions presented. Preliminary model runs resulted in yields well below those actually observed. Calibration of model parameters brought these values closer to the observed yields, but stock values proved inexact. The influence of power plant mortality on fishery yield was evident, but the simulation results remain inconclusive. 11 references, 4 figures, 6 tables.

  20. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  1. Assessment for Learning: Effects and Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flórez, María Teresa; Sammons, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    The idea that schools can impact positively on student outcomes is a crucial driver in the rise of interest in school improvement research and practice. This review focuses on assessment for learning. Assessment for learning (AfL)--where the first priority is to promote learning--is a key means of initiating improvement. This review proposes that…

  2. Climate impact assessment, United States

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-02-01

    This report considers unusual or abnormal meteorological or geophysical events (unusual in time, location, intensity, frequency or persistence) that will likely have an impact on societal or economic activities in a special and significant manner. This report considers: 1) violent meteorological events such as damaging thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical and winter storms, 2) non-violent meteorological events, including mild, unusually pleasant weather, lack of precipitation, and temperature extremes, 3) meteorologically related events, particularly drought, floods, forest fires and ice jams, and 4) geophysical events such as avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamies, waves, tides and shoreline erosion.

  3. Impact of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: an assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Manish K.; Kucharski, Fred

    2016-06-01

    The present study evaluates the fidelity of 32 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in simulating the observed teleconnection of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Approximately two-thirds of the models show well-defined spatial pattern of IPO over the Pacific basin and most amongst these capture the IPO-ISMR teleconnection. In general, the models that fail to reproduce the IPO-ISMR teleconnection are the ones that are also showing a poor spatial pattern of IPO, irrespective of the extent to which they reproduce the precipitation climatology and seasonal cycle. The results reveal a strong relationship between the quality of reproducing the IPO pattern and the IPO-ISMR teleconnection in the models, in particular with respect to the tropical-extratropical as well as the equatorial Pacific-Indian Ocean sea surface temperature gradients during IPO phases. Furthermore, the CMIP5 models that are capable of reproducing the IPO-ISMR teleconnection also reasonably simulate the atmospheric circulation as well as the convergence/divergence patterns associated with the IPO. Thus, for the better understanding of decadal-to-multidecadal variability and to improve decadal prediction of rainfall over India it is therefore vital that models should simulate the IPO skillfully.

  4. Pb-Pb dating of individual chondrules from the CBa chondrite Gujba: Assessment of the impact plume formation model

    PubMed Central

    Bollard, Jean; Connelly, James N.; Bizzarro, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The CB chondrites are metal-rich meteorites with characteristics that sharply distinguish them from other chondrite groups. Their unusual chemical and petrologic features and a young formation age of bulk chondrules dated from the CBa chondrite Gujba are interpreted to reflect a single-stage impact origin. Here, we report high-precision internal isochrons for four individual chondrules of the Gujba chondrite to probe the formation history of CB chondrites and evaluate the concordancy of relevant short-lived radionuclide chronometers. All four chondrules define a brief formation interval with a weighted mean age of 4562.49 ± 0.21 Myr, consistent with its origin from the vapor-melt impact plume generated by colliding planetesimals. Formation in a debris disk mostly devoid of nebular gas and dust sets an upper limit for the solar protoplanetary disk lifetime at 4.8 ± 0.3 Myr. Finally, given the well-behaved Pb-Pb systematics of all four chondrules, a precise formation age and the concordancy of the Mn-Cr, Hf-W, and I-Xe short-lived radionuclide relative chronometers, we propose that Gujba may serve as a suitable time anchor for these systems. PMID:27429545

  5. VTAC: virtual terrain assisted impact assessment for cyber attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argauer, Brian J.; Yang, Shanchieh J.

    2008-03-01

    Overwhelming intrusion alerts have made timely response to network security breaches a difficult task. Correlating alerts to produce a higher level view of intrusion state of a network, thus, becomes an essential element in network defense. This work proposes to analyze correlated or grouped alerts and determine their 'impact' to services and users of the network. A network is modeled as 'virtual terrain' where cyber attacks maneuver. Overlaying correlated attack tracks on virtual terrain exhibits the vulnerabilities exploited by each track and the relationships between them and different network entities. The proposed impact assessment algorithm utilizes the graph-based virtual terrain model and combines assessments of damages caused by the attacks. The combined impact scores allow to identify severely damaged network services and affected users. Several scenarios are examined to demonstrate the uses of the proposed Virtual Terrain Assisted Impact Assessment for Cyber Attacks (VTAC).

  6. AIDA: the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincent, Jean-Baptiste

    2016-07-01

    The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint cooperation between European and US space agencies that consists of two separate and independent spacecraft that will be launched to a binary asteroid system, the near-Earth asteroid Didymos, to assess the possibility of deflecting an asteroid trajectory by using a kinetic impactor. The European Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is under Phase A/B1 study at ESA from March 2015 until summer 2016. AIM is set to rendez-vous with the asteroid system a few months prior to the impact by the US Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to fully characterize the smaller of the two binary components. AIM is a unique mission as it will be the first time that a spacecraft will investigate the surface, subsurface, and internal properties of a small binary near Earth asteroid. In addition it will perform various important technology demonstrations that can serve other space missions: AIM will release a set of CubeSats in deep space and a lander on the surface of the smaller asteroid and for the first time, deep-space inter-satellite linking will be demonstrated between the main spacecraft, the CubeSats, and the lander, and data will also be transmitted from interplanetary space to Earth by a laser communication system. The knowledge obtained by this mission will have great implications for our understanding of the history of the Solar System. Small asteroids are believed to result from collisions and other processes (e.g., spinup, shaking) that made them what they are now. Having direct information on their surface and internal properties will allow us to understand how these processes work and transform these small bodies as well as, for this particular case, how a binary system forms. So far, our understanding of the collisional process and the validation of numerical simulations of the impact process rely on impact experiments at laboratory scales. With DART, thanks to the characterization of the

  7. MODELING AIR POLLUTION FROM THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD TRADE CENTER AND ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON HUMAN EXPOSURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and the Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI) have been working together under a University Partnership Agreement to develop improved methods for human exposure modeling. This partnership was ongo...

  8. Cumulative impact assessment: A case study

    SciTech Connect

    Irving, J.S.; Bain, M.B.

    1989-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) indirectly addressed cumulative impacts. Attempts to include cumulative impacts in environmental impact assessments, however, did not began until the early 1980's. One such effort began when The Federal Energy and Regulatory Commission (FERC) received over 1200 applications for hydroelectric projects in the Pacific Northwest. Federal and State Agencies, Indian tribes and environmental groups realized the potential cumulative effect such development could have on fish and wildfire resources. In response, the FERC developed the Cluster Impact Assessment Procedure (CIAP). The CIAP consisted of public scoping meetings; interactive workshops designed to identify projects with potential for cumulative effects, important resources, available data; and preparation of a NEPA document (EA or EIS). The procedure was modifies to assess the cumulative impacts of fifteen hydroelectric projects in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho. The methodology achieved its basic objective of evaluating the impact of hydroelectric development on fish and wildfire resources. In addition, the use of evaluative techniques to determine project interactions and degrees of impact hindered acceptance of the conclusions. Notwithstanding these problems, the studies provided a basis for decision-makers to incorporate the potential effects of cumulative impacts into the decision-making process. 22 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. An assessment model for atmospheric composition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    Predicting future perturbations to global air quality and climate requires, as a prerequisite, prognostic models for the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Such assessment models are needed to evaluate the impact on our environment of different social choices that affect emissions of the photochemically and radiatively important trace gases. Our presentation here of a prototype assessment model is intended to encourage public scientific discussions of the necessary components of the model and their interactions, with the recognition that models similar to this will likely be used by the Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory agencies in order to assess the effect of changes in atmospheric composition on climate over the next century.

  10. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.

  11. Development and evaluation of an air quality modeling approach to assess near-field impacts of lead emissions from piston-engine aircraft operating on leaded aviation gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Edward; Lee, Mark; Marin, Kristen; Holder, Christopher; Hoyer, Marion; Pedde, Meredith; Cook, Rich; Touma, Jawad

    2011-10-01

    Since aviation gasoline is now the largest remaining source of lead (Pb) emissions to the air in the United States, there is increased interest by regulatory agencies and the public in assessing the impacts on residents living in close proximity to these sources. An air quality modeling approach using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) was developed and evaluated for estimating atmospheric concentrations of Pb at and near general aviation airports where leaded aviation gasoline (avgas) is used. These detailed procedures were made to accurately characterize emissions and dispersion leading to improved model performance for a pollutant with concentrations that vary rapidly across short distances. The new aspects of this work included a comprehensive Pb emission inventory that incorporated sub-daily time-in-mode (TIM) activity data for piston-engine aircraft, aircraft-induced wake turbulence, plume rise of the aircraft exhaust, and allocation of approach and climb-out emissions to 50-m increments in altitude. To evaluate the modeling approach used here, ambient Pb concentrations were measured upwind and downwind of the Santa Monica Airport (SMO) and compared to modeled air concentrations. Modeling results paired in both time and space with monitoring data showed excellent overall agreement (absolute fractional bias of 0.29 winter, 0.07 summer). The modeling results on individual days show Pb concentration gradients above the urban background concentration of 10 ng m-3 extending downwind up to 900 m from the airport, with a crosswind extent of 400 m. Three-month average modeled concentrations above the background were found to extend to a maximum distance of approximately 450 m beyond the airport property in summer and fall. Modeling results show aircraft engine “run-up” is the most important source contribution to the maximum Pb concentration. Sensitivity analysis

  12. Assessing the impact of irrigation treatments on thiram residual trends: correspondence with numerical modelling and field-scale experiments.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Manika; Garg, N K; Joshi, Himanshu; Sharma, M P

    2014-03-01

    The present study was undertaken to study the trends of transport of thiram, a dithiocarbamate pesticide, at different time and depth in the fields under real field conditions for wheat crop. Numerical simulations were carried out by solving the coupled soil-water content movement and mass transport equations using HYDRUS- 1D. The supplementary data used for paramaterization of HYDRUS-1D comprise of irrigation treatments, climatic conditions, and soil characteristics. Results focus on the effects and influence of irrigation treatments on pesticide persistence and mobility. Modelling results were in good agreement with the experimentally determined thiram concentrations. Application of the model to measured field data of thiram movement indicates that the modelling approach can provide reliable and useful estimates of the mass flux of water and non-volatile pesticide in vadose zone. For policy-makers and planners, some regulation strategies are suggested for controlling inappropriate pesticide application under deficit irrigation or rain-fed conditions.

  13. Spatial- and time-explicit human damage modeling of ozone depleting substances in life cycle impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Struijs, Jaap; van Dijk, Arjan; Slaper, Harry; van Wijnen, Harm J; Velders, Guus J M; Chaplin, George; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2010-01-01

    Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is mainly caused by emissions of persistent halocarbons of anthropogenic origin. The resulting increase of solar ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface is associated with increased exposure of humans and increased human health damage. Here we assessed the change in human health damage caused by three types of skin cancer and cataract in terms of (healthy) years of life lost per kiloton emission reduction of an ozone-depleting substance (ODS). This so-called characterization factor is used in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Characterization factors are provided for the emissions of five chlorofluorocarbons, three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, three (bromine-containing) halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and anthropogenic emissions of methyl bromide. We employed dynamic calculations on a global scale for this purpose, taking physical and social geographic data into account such as skin tones, population density, average age, and life expectancy. When emission rates of all ODSs in 2007 are multiplied by our characterization factors, the resulting number of years of life lost may be a factor of 5 higher than reported previously. This increase is merely explained through the global demographic development until 2100 we took into account.

  14. Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess the impact of megacity pollution export at the regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Coll, Isabelle; Meleux, Frederik; Menut, Laurent

    2010-05-01

    Investigations of the impact of megacities on the atmospheric environment benefit from a multiscale approach, because megacities provide a large part of the total anthropogenic emissions of trace species that have an impact on air quality at all scales. At the local scale, the accumulation of these primary compounds is responsible for severe respiratory problems and for the alteration of buildings. At the regional scale, they lead to the formation of secondary compounds such as ozone or organic particulate matter witch - in addition to their adverse effects of health - have an impact on the climate equilibrium. Bridging the local and regional scales in a dynamic fashion would thus improve the characterisation of local pollution export from megacities and their regional impact. One of the main objectives of the CityZen project is to assess the interactions between spatial scales. This paper contributes to this activity with a focus on local to regional exchanges. The spatial interactions are often represented through off-line coupling of Chemistry Transport Models (CTM). The interactions from the global to the regional scale are well represented by state-of-the-art nested models. However the off-line coupling from the local to the regional and continental scales introduces a bias in the representation of local plumes on the chemistry of the larger scale. Such phenomena can be captured by means of two way nesting in a coupled model or data assimilation. But these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of an alternative multiscale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method consists in the introduction of local zooms over megacities in a continental chemistry-transport simulation within a single grid with variable resolution. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (~1km resolution) to the continental area (~50km resolution). The CHIMERE grid being regular

  15. Modeling and assessing nitrogen delivery in the Calapooia River Watershed, and the impact of small streams delivery on downstream watershed

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Calapooia River is a major tributary to the Willamette River in western Oregon, which is characterized by a mountainous forested upland and a flat agricultural lowland. Here we report on a modeling study of watershed’s N budget, and quantify the influence of different...

  16. Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

    2011-12-01

    Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations

  17. The impact of floods and storms on the acoustic reflectivity of the inner continental shelf: A modeling assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratson, Lincoln F.; Hutton, E.W.H.; Kettner, A.J.; Syvitski, J.P.M.; Hill, P.S.; George, D.A.; Milligan, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    Flood deposition and storm reworking of sediments on the inner shelf can change the mixture of grain sizes on the seabed and thus its porosity, bulk density, bulk compressional velocity and reflectivity. Whether these changes are significant enough to be detectable by repeat sub-bottom sonar surveys, however, is uncertain. Here the question is addressed through numerical modeling. Episodic flooding of a large versus small river over the course of a century are modeled with HYDROTREND using the drainage basin characteristics of the Po and Pescara Rivers (respectively). A similarly long stochastic record of storms offshore of both rivers is simulated from the statistics of a long-term mooring recording of waves in the western Adriatic Sea. These time series are then input to the stratigraphic model SEDFLUX2D, which simulates flood deposition and storm reworking on the inner shelf beyond the river mouths. Finally, annual changes in seabed reflectivity across these shelf regions are computed from bulk densities output by SEDFLUX2D and compressional sound speeds computed from mean seafloor grain size using the analytical model of Buckingham [1997. Theory of acoustic attenuation, dispersion, and pulse propagation in unconsolidated granular materials including marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 102, 2579-2596; 1998. Theory of compressional and shear waves in fluidlike marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 103, 288-299; 2000. Wave propagation, stress relaxation, and grain-tograin shearing in saturated, unconsolidated marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 108, 2796-2815]. The modeling predicts reflectivities that change from 9 dB for muds farther offshore, values that agree with reflectivity measurements for these sediment types. On local scales of ???100 m, however, maximum changes in reflectivity are <0.5 dB. So are most annual changes in reflectivity over all water depths modeled (i.e., 0-35 m

  18. The potential impact on obesity of a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ireland, an effect assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Some governments have recently shown a willingness to introduce taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks. In 2011, the Irish Minister for Health proposed a 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) as a measure to combat childhood obesity. Whilst this proposed tax received considerable support, the Irish Department of Finance requested a Health Impact Assessment of this measure. As part of this assessment we set out to model the impact on obesity. Methods We used price elasticity estimates to calculate the effect of a 10% SSB tax on SSB consumption. SSBs were assumed to have an own-price elasticity of −0.9 and we assumed a tax pass-on rate to consumers of 90%. Baseline SSB consumption and obesity prevalence, by age, sex and income-group, for Ireland were taken from the 2007 Survey on Lifestyle and Attitude to Nutrition. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the effect on obesity arising from the predicted change in calorie consumption, both for the whole population and for sub-groups (age, sex, income). Sensitivity analyses were conducted on price-elasticity estimates and tax pass-on rates. Results We estimate that a 10% tax on SSBs will result in a mean reduction in energy intake of 2.1 kcal/person/day. After adjustment for self-reported data, the 10% tax is predicted to reduce the percentage of the obese adult population (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2) by 1.3%, equating to 9,900 adults (95% credible intervals: 7,750 to 12,940), and the overweight or obese population (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) by 0.7%, or 14,380 adults (9,790 to 17,820). Reductions in obesity are similar for men (1.2%) and women (1.3%), and similar for each income group (between 1.1% and 1.4% across income groups). Reductions in obesity are greater in young adults than older adults (e.g. 2.9% in adults aged 18–24 years vs 0.6% in adults aged 65 years and over). Conclusions This study suggests that a tax on SSBs in Ireland would have a small but meaningful effect

  19. Assessment of noise impact on the urban environment: a study on noise-prediction models. Environmental health series

    SciTech Connect

    Lang, J.

    1986-01-01

    The report identifies, compares, and evaluates the major methods developed in Europe and North America to predict noise levels resulting from urban-development projects. Hopefully, it will guide countries that have not yet developed their own noise-prediction models to choose the model most appropriate for their particular situation. It covers prediction methods for road traffic noise and railroad traffic noise in Austria, Czecheslovakia, France, both Germany's Hungary, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Switzerland, U.K. and USA, as well as the Commission of the European Communities, and a comparison of methods. It also covers prediction methods for industrial noise from Austria, both Germany's Netherlands, Scandinavia, and U.K., and discusses calculation methods for aircraft noise around airports.

  20. Assessing the neuronal serotonergic target-based antidepressant stratagem: impact of in vivo interaction studies and knockout models.

    PubMed

    Rajkumar, R; Mahesh, R

    2008-09-01

    Depression remains a challenge in the field of affective neuroscience, despite a steady research progress. Six out of nine basic antidepressant mechanisms rely on serotonin neurotransmitter system. Preclinical studies have demonstrated the significance of serotonin receptors (5-HT(1-3,6,7)), its signal transduction pathways and classical down stream targets (including neurotrophins, neurokinins, other peptides and their receptors) in antidepressant drug action. Serotonergic control of depression embraces the recent molecular requirements such as influence on proliferation, neurogenesis, plasticity, synaptic (re)modeling and transmission in the central nervous system. The present progress report analyses the credibility of each protein as therapeutically relevant target of depression. In vivo interaction studies and knockout models which identified these targets are foreseen to unearth new ligands and help them transform to drug candidates. The importance of the antidepressant assay selection at the preclinical level using salient animal models/assay systems is discussed. Such test batteries would definitely provide antidepressants with faster onset, efficacy in resistant (and co-morbid) types and with least adverse effects. Apart from the selective ligands, only those molecules which bring an overall harmony, by virtue of their affinities to various receptor subtypes, could qualify as effective antidepressants. Synchronised modulation of various serotonergic sub-pathways is the basis for a unique and balanced antidepressant profile, as that of fluoxetine (most exploited antidepressant) and such a profile may be considered as a template for the upcoming antidepressants. In conclusion, 5-HT based multi-targeted antidepressant drug discovery supported by in vivo interaction studies and knockout models is advocated as a strategy to provide classic molecules for clinical trials. PMID:19506722

  1. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  2. Assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2013-12-01

    The response of watershed erosion rates to changes in climate is expected to be highly non-linear and thus demands for mechanistic approaches to improve our understanding of the underlying causes. In this study, the integrated geomorphic component tRIBS-Erosion of the physically-based, spatially distributed hydrological model, tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator, is used to analyze the sensitivity of small semi-arid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. Observed historic climate and downscaled realizations of general circulation models from CMIP3 inform the stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN (Advanced WEather GENerator), which is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the past historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) area in the Southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of CMIP3 multi-model climate change projections. The climate ensembles are used as forcing input to the hydrogeomorphic model that is applied to seven headwater basins of WGEW. The basin response in terms of runoff and sediment yield for climate ensembles representative of the historic past and future is simulated and probabilistic inferences on future changes in catchment runoff and sediment transport are drawn. The application of the model to multiple catchments also identifies the scaling relationship between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area. The study reveals that geomorphic differences among catchments influence the variability of sediment yield, as affected by possible future climates, much more as compared to runoff, which is instead strongly dominated by the climate forcing. Despite a large uncertainty inherent to climate change projections and imposed by the stochastic climate variability, the basin sediment yield is predicted to decrease

  3. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  4. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  6. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations. PMID:24188173

  7. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ying; Skjetne, Erik; Kobernus, Mike

    2013-11-04

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations.

  8. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

  9. Untapped potential of health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  10. Community Level Impact Assessment--Extension Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Mike D.; Doeksen, Gerald A.

    Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C W

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  12. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  13. A Screening Method for Assessing Cumulative Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Alexeeff, George V.; Faust, John B.; August, Laura Meehan; Milanes, Carmen; Randles, Karen; Zeise, Lauren; Denton, Joan

    2012-01-01

    The California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) Environmental Justice Action Plan calls for guidelines for evaluating “cumulative impacts.” As a first step toward such guidelines, a screening methodology for assessing cumulative impacts in communities was developed. The method, presented here, is based on the working definition of cumulative impacts adopted by Cal/EPA [1]: “Cumulative impacts means exposures, public health or environmental effects from the combined emissions and discharges in a geographic area, including environmental pollution from all sources, whether single or multi-media, routinely, accidentally, or otherwise released. Impacts will take into account sensitive populations and socio-economic factors, where applicable and to the extent data are available.” The screening methodology is built on this definition as well as current scientific understanding of environmental pollution and its adverse impacts on health, including the influence of both intrinsic, biological factors and non-intrinsic socioeconomic factors in mediating the effects of pollutant exposures. It addresses disparities in the distribution of pollution and health outcomes. The methodology provides a science-based tool to screen places for relative cumulative impacts, incorporating both the pollution burden on a community- including exposures to pollutants, their public health and environmental effects- and community characteristics, specifically sensitivity and socioeconomic factors. The screening methodology provides relative rankings to distinguish more highly impacted communities from less impacted ones. It may also help identify which factors are the greatest contributors to a community’s cumulative impact. It is not designed to provide quantitative estimates of community-level health impacts. A pilot screening analysis is presented here to illustrate the application of this methodology. Once guidelines are adopted, the methodology can serve as a screening

  14. Development and Evaluation of an Air Quality Modeling Approach to Assess Near-Field Impacts of Lead Emissions from Piston-Engine Aircraft Operating on Leaded Aviation Gasoline

    EPA Science Inventory

    Since aviation gasoline is now the largest remaining source of lead (Pb) emissions to the air in the United States, there is increased interest by regulatory agencies and the public in assessing the impacts on residents living in close proximity to these sources. An air quality m...

  15. Let's put this in perspective: using dynamic simulation modelling to assess the impacts of farm-scale land management change on catchment-scale water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivers, Mark; Clarendon, Simon; Coles, Neil

    2013-04-01

    Natural Resource Management and Agri-industry development groups in Australia have invested considerable resources into the investigation of the economic, social and, particularly, environmental impacts of varying farming activities in a "catchment context". This research has resulted in the development of a much-improved understanding of the likely impacts of changed management practices at the farm-scale as well as the development of a number of conceptual models which place farming within this broader catchment context. The project discussed in this paper transformed a conceptual model of dairy farm phosphorus (P) management and transport processes into a more temporally and spatially dynamic model. This was then loaded with catchment-specific data and used as a "policy support tool" to allow the Australian dairy industry to examine the potential farm and catchment-scale impacts of varying dairy farm management practices within some key dairy farming regions. Models were developed, validated and calibrated using "STELLA©" dynamic modelling software for three catchments in which dairy is perceived as a significant land use. The models describe P movement and cycling within and through dairy farms in great detail and also estimate P transport through major source, sink and flow sectors of the catchments. A series of scenarios were executed for all three catchments which examined three main "groups" of tests: changes to farm P input rates; implementation of perceived environmental "Best Management Practices" (BMPs), and; changes to land use mosaics. Modifications to actual P input rates into dairy farms (not surprisingly) had a major effect on nutrient transport within and from the farms with a significant rise in nutrient loss rates at all scales with increasing fertiliser use. More surprisingly, however, even extensive environmental BMP implementation did not have marked effects on off-farm nutrient loss rates. On and off-farm riparian management implemented

  16. Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

    2015-12-01

    INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of

  17. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  18. SkiSim - A semi-distributed model to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiger, R.

    2009-04-01

    -2000 is +1,4°C to +3,5°C in the B1 scenario, and from +1,2°C to 5,7°C in the A1B scenario. Precipitation change in the A1B scenario is between +5% and +10%, in B1 it is +5% to +20%. The synthetic daily data produced by LARS-WG is the input data for the ski season model. Temperature and precipitation are distributed for each 100m altitude band, ranging from the lowest to the highest point of the ski area. The ski season model produces results for the whole ski area and not just for one single point (e.g. the lowest point in a ski area). Thus it is possible to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking in much greater detail than in previous studies. Based on these results, the consequences for winter tourism destinations can be assessed. Following the methodology of Breiling et al. (1997, 2008), the contribution of winter tourism to the regional economy and the number employments in tourism serve as an indicator for the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change. In total 120 ski areas in North and South Tyrol are investigated in the running project. Results of three ski areas, different in size and altitude, will be presented. Sources: Abegg, B., S. Agrawala, Crick, F., de Montfalcon, A. (2007): Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, Climate Change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD: 25-60. Breiling, M., Charamza, P., Skage, O. (1997): Klimasensibilität österreichischer Bezirke mit besonderer Berücksichtigung des Wintertourismus. Rapport 1,Department of Landscape Planning Alnarp, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Breiling, M., Charamza, P.,Feilmayr, W. (2008): Klimasensibilität des Salzburger Wintertourismus nach Bezirken, TTL, TU Vienna. Kleindienst, H. (2000): Snow hydrological models as tools for snow cover assessment and water resources management, Bern. Phd. Scott, D., G. McBoyle, Minogue, A. (2007): Climate Change

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  20. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    Alternative methods for quantifying the economic impacts associated with future increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ were examined. A literature search was undertaken, both to gain a better understanding of the ways in which CO/sub 2/ buildup could affect crop growth and to identify the different methods available for assessing the impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields. The second task involved identifying the scope of both the direct and indirect economic impacts that could occur as a result of CO/sub 2/-induced changes in crop yields. The third task then consisted of a comprehensive literature search to identify what types of economic models could be used effectively to assess the kinds of direct and indirect economic impacts that could conceivably occur as a result of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, multi-country agricultural trade models, and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The fourth and final task of this research involved synthesizing the information gathered in the previous tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes related to agricultural production.

  1. A new approach for environmental justice impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Wilkinson, C.H.; Brumburgh, G.P.; Edmunds, T.A.; Kay, D.

    1996-03-01

    President Clinton`s Executive Order 12898 calls for examination of disproportionately high and adverse impacts to minority and low-income communities. In addition to demographic mapping, environmental justice analyses should also include quantitative impact assessment to show presence or absence of disproportionate impacts. This study demonstrates use of a geographic information system (GIS) and a computer model. For this demonstration, a safety analysis report and a computer code were used to develop impact assessment data from a hypothetical facility accident producing a radiological airborne plume. The computer code modeled the plume, plotted dose contours, and provided latitude and longitude coordinates for transfer to the GIS. The GIS integrated and mapped the impact and demographic data toprovide a graphical representation of the plume with respect to the population. Impacts were then analyzed. The GIS was used to estimate the total dose to the exposed population under the plume, the dose to the low-income population under the plume, and the dose to the minority population under the plume. Impacts among the population groups were compared to determine whether a dispropotionate share of the impacts were borne by minority or low-income populations.

  2. Assessment by regional modelling of the impact of monopile foundations on the hydrodynamics and sediment transport: case of Courseulles-sur-Mer (France) wind farm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivier, Aurélie; Bennis, Anne-Claire; Pinon, Grégory; Magar, Vanesa; Gross, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Offshore monopile foundations of wind turbines modify hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local scale and also at regional scale. The aim of this work is to assess these changes and to parametrize them in a regional model. These modifications were previously evaluated using the regional circulation model MARS3D (Lazure and Dumas, 2008) in tests-cases (Rivier et al., 2014) using two approaches: in the first approach, monopiles are explicitly modelled in the mesh as dry cells and in the second approach a sub-grid parametrization which considers the drag force exerted by a monopile on the flow is used. The sub-grid parametrization is improved close to the bed in this paper by adding a drag force term in the momentum equations, source terms in the turbulence model and by increasing the bed shear stress at monopile location. Changes in hydrodynamics regime, especially near-bed, affect sediment transport regime and modifications due to monopiles on sediment dynamics is also investigated using the MARS3D sediment transport module (Le Hir et al., 2011) which solves the advection-diffusion equations. Test-cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France) where an offshore wind farm is planned to be built. Velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and bed thickness changes due to the monopile simulated by both approaches are compared to each other and to experimental measurements made in a flume at the University of Caen or to published data (e.g. Roulund et al., 2005; Dargahi,1989). Then the model is applied in a real configuration on an area including the future offshore wind farm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed along a tidal cycle. Currents increase at the side edge of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream the monopile. Turbulent kinetic

  3. 3D-Modeling of Vegetation from Lidar Point Clouds and Assessment of its Impact on Façade Solar Irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peronato, G.; Rey, E.; Andersen, M.

    2016-10-01

    The presence of vegetation can significantly affect the solar irradiation received on building surfaces. Due to the complex shape and seasonal variability of vegetation geometry, this topic has gained much attention from researchers. However, existing methods are limited to rooftops as they are based on 2.5D geometry and use simplified radiation algorithms based on view-sheds. This work contributes to overcoming some of these limitations, providing support for 3D geometry to include facades. Thanks to the use of ray-tracing-based simulations and detailed characterization of the 3D surfaces, we can also account for inter-reflections, which might have a significant impact on façade irradiation. In order to construct confidence intervals on our results, we modeled vegetation from LiDAR point clouds as 3D convex hulls, which provide the biggest volume and hence the most conservative obstruction scenario. The limits of the confidence intervals were characterized with some extreme scenarios (e.g. opaque trees and absence of trees). Results show that uncertainty can vary significantly depending on the characteristics of the urban area and the granularity of the analysis (sensor, building and group of buildings). We argue that this method can give us a better understanding of the uncertainties due to vegetation in the assessment of solar irradiation in urban environments, and therefore, the potential for the installation of solar energy systems.

  4. Economic Impacts of Arts and Cultural Institutions: A Model for Assessment and a Case Study in Baltimore. Research Division Report #6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cwi, David; Lyall, Katherine

    This research project attempts to determine the economic effects of arts activities and cultural institutions on a local community (Baltimore, Maryland). This document contains an economic impact model that uses 30 equations to determine direct and secondary effects on businesses, government, and individuals and a case study of the model involving…

  5. Minidoka Dam Wildlife Impact Assessment: Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Robert C.; Meuleman, G. Allyn

    1989-03-01

    A wildlife impact assessment has been developed for the US Bureau of Reclamation's Minidoka Dam and Reservoir in south central Idaho. This assessment was conducted to fulfill requirements of the Fish and Wildlife Program. Specific objectives of this study included the following: select target wildlife species, and identify their current status and management goals; estimate the net effects on target wildlife species resulting from hydroelectric development and operation; recommend protection, mitigation, and enhancement goals for target wildlife species affected by hydroelectric development and operation; and consult and coordinate impact assessment activities with the Northwest Power Planning Council, Bonneville Power Administration, US Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee, and other entities expressing interest in the project. 62 refs., 2 figs., 11 tabs.

  6. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Li, Long

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  7. Applying social impact assessment to nursing research.

    PubMed

    Bradbury-Jones, Caroline; Taylor, Julie

    2014-08-01

    Many nurses need to construct a research proposal at some stage of their career and there are multiple texts that provide guidance on doing so. However, most texts do not provide explicit guidance on the issue of social impact--the effect of research on the social health and wellbeing of individuals, families and communities and on the improved performance of relevant services. This article proposes that social impact should be considered from the beginning of a research project. It outlines a framework for assessing social impact to help strengthen the quality of research proposals and assist nurses constructing the proposal and also those evaluating it, including academic assessors or funding body reviewers. Nursing research should be useful and should have a positive effect on practice. Focusing on social impact can increase the chances of this desirable outcome.

  8. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution: The Impact of Demographics on Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution

    PubMed Central

    Bønløkke, Jakob; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed health impact assessment model, which models four major diseases and mortality causes in addition to all-cause mortality. The modeling was at the municipal level, which divides the approximately 5.5 M residents in Denmark into 99 municipalities. Three sets of demographic assumptions were used: (1) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution. PMID:23762084

  9. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  10. A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

  11. Impact Assessment of Watershed in Desert Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhava Rao, V.; Hermon, R. R.; Kesava Rao, P.; Phanindra Kumar, T.

    2012-07-01

    Change detection from different temporal images usually based on reflectance on natural and human activity impact, using integrated GIS, Remote Sensing and image processing technologies enable impact assessment of watershed in desert region. A time series analysis of seasonal NDVI have been used to estimate net primary productivity, phonological characteristic of vegetative surface, length of growing season and dry drown periods (Ramsey et al., 1995). The study is designed to achieve the objectives to Study the changes in vegetation for selected watershed in a desert districts of Bhilwara, Barmer & Jaisalmer in Rajastan State of India, to identify the changes in density of vegetation, to assess the temporal changes and to assess the impact of the watershed, with an objective to conserve the soil erosion and harvest the rainwater in order to increase the ground water table, to improve the socio economic condition of the people and to stop the migration of the people from the villages in search of livelihood. These activities will have a direct impact on the crop production. The Changes in density of vegetation indicates the quantity of crop production and the growth of vegetation apart from crops and the conservation of land with out scrub/barren land to land with scrub. This gives an picture about the impact of watershed programme in increasing the vegetative cover. The temporal changes help in understanding the changes taken place in the watershed, and facilitate understand the positive as well as negative impacts of any decisions taken in the implementation. The extent and density and type of vegetation for the years, 2000,2004,2005,2007 and 2008, was studied and vegetation growth was analysed using GIS and Digital Image Processing techniques.

  12. Utility of fuzzy cross-impact simulation in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Parashar, A.; Paliwal, R.; Rambabu, P.

    1997-11-01

    Fuzzy cross-impact simulation is a qualitative technique, where interactions within a system are represented by a cross-impact matrix that includes linguistic elements. It can be used effectively to visualize dynamic evolution of a system. The utility of the fuzzy cross-impact simulation approach is: (1) in dealing with uncertainties in environment-development systems; (2) scoping cumulative effect assessment; and (3) integrating societal response structure in environment impact assessment. Use of the method is illustrated in a case concerning the textile industry in Indore, India. Consequences of policy alternatives for cleanup and pollution abatement are predicted in terms of environmental quality and quality of life, using the simulation model. The consequence analysis is used to arrive at preferred policy options.

  13. Roles of social impact assessment practitioners

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Cecilia H.M. Ho, Wing-chung

    2015-01-15

    The effectiveness of social impact assessment (SIA) hinges largely on the capabilities and ethics of the practitioners, yet few studies have dedicated to discuss the expectations for these professionals. Recognising this knowledge gap, we employed the systemic review approach to construct a framework of roles of SIA practitioners from literature. Our conceptual framework encompasses eleven roles, namely project manager of SIA, practitioner of SIA methodologies, social researcher, social strategy developer, social impact management consultant, community developer, visionary, public involvement specialist, coordinator, SIA researcher, and educator. Although these roles have been stratified into three overarching categories, the project, community and SIA development, they are indeed interrelated and should be examined together. The significance of this study is threefold. First, it pioneers the study of the roles of SIA practitioners in a focused and systematic manner. Second, it informs practitioners of the expectations of them thereby fostering professionalism. Third, it prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment. - Highlights: • We adopt systematic review to construct a framework of roles of social impact assessment (SIA) practitioners from literature. • We use three overarching categorises to stratify the eleven roles we proposed. • This work is a novel attempt to study the work as a SIA practitioner and build a foundation for further exploration. • The framework informs practitioners of the expectations on them thus reinforcing professionalism. • The framework also prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment.

  14. Impact Hazard Assessment for 2011 AG5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chesley, Steven R.; Bhaskaran, S.; Chodas, P. W.; Grebow, D.; Landau, D.; Petropoulos, A. E.; Sims, J. A.; Yeomans, D. K.

    2012-10-01

    2011 AG5 is a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid roughly 140 m in diameter. The current orbit determination, based on 213 optical measurements from 2010-Nov-08.6 to 2011-Sep-21.4, allows for the possibility of an Earth impact on 2040-Feb-05.2 with probability 0.2%. The 2040 potential impact is a 17:10 resonant return from a 2023 Earth encounter, where if the asteroid passes through a 365 km keyhole, it will go on to impact in 2040. We discuss the critical points on the decision tree for averting this potential impact. The decision to proceed with a deflection mission should not be made prematurely, when there is still a chance for eliminating the impact hazard through observations rather than intervention, and yet the decision must not be delayed past the point where it is no longer feasible to achieve a deflection. Thus the decision tree is informed by the evolution of the asteroid’s orbital uncertainty and by the available mission scenarios. We approach the orbital prediction problem by assessing the expected future evolution of the orbital uncertainty at the 2040 encounter based on various observational scenarios. We find that observations made at the next favorable apparition in 2013 are 95% likely to eliminate the possibility of a 2040 impact altogether. With the addition of 2015-16 observations, this likelihood increases to about 99%. Conversely, if the asteroid turns out to really be on an Earth impacting trajectory, the 2013 observations could raise the chance of impact to 10-15%, and observations in 2015-2016 could raise the chance of impact to 70%. On the deflection side, we describe a range of viable kinetic deflection mission scenarios. Mission timelines allow detailed planning to be delayed until after the 2013 observations and spacecraft fabrication to be delayed until after the 2015-16 observations. The full report is available at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news175.html.

  15. Methodology for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on land degradation at multiple scales: Use of high resolution satellite imagery, modelling, and ground measurements for the assessment in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Oumer

    In this study, a new multi-scalar methodology for assessing land degradation response to climate change is presented by analyzing 22 years of both climatic data and satellite observations, together with future projections from modelling, for Ethiopia. A comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on land degradation was performed as evidenced from the integration of a host of land degradation indicators, namely: normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP), crop yield, biomass, length of growing period (LGP), rainfall use efficiency (RUE), energy use efficiency (EUE) and aridity index (AI). The results from the national level assessment indicate that over the period of 1984-2006, NPP decreased overall. Degrading areas occupy 30% of the country and suffer an average loss of NPP 10.3 kg C ha-1 y-1. The crop yield prediction results indicate a wide range of outcomes is to be expected for the country, due to the heterogeneity of the agro-climatic resources as well as of projected climate change. The results of the sub-national level assessment show that about 29% of the Awash watershed is degrading, and these degrading areas experience an average loss of NPP 4.6 kg C ha-1 y-1. Further, about 33.8% of the degrading area in the watershed is associated with bare land and 25% with agricultural land. Finally, since remotely sensed estimates are frequently used to assess land degradation at multiple scales, scale transfer methods are evaluated in this study to provide a tool to rank both upscaling and downscaling procedures.

  16. Flood Impact Modelling to support decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    Much of what is known about the impacts of landuse change and Natural Flood Management (NFM) is at the local/plot scale. Evidence of the downstream impacts at the larger catchment scale is limited. However, the strategic and financial decisions of land managers, stakeholders and policy makers are made at the larger scale. There are a number of techniques that have the potential to scale local impacts to the catchment scale. This poster will show findings for the 30km2 Leven catchment, North Yorkshire, England. A NFM approach has been adopted by the Environment Agency to reduce flood risk within the catchment. A dense network of stream level gauges were installed in the catchment at the commencement of this project to gain a detailed understanding of the catchment behaviour during storm events. A novel Flood Impact Modelling (FIM) approach has been adopted which uses the network of gauges to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of source locations. Using a combination of expert opinion and local evidence, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed changes in land use management and NFM on flood events. A number of potential future landuse and NFM scenarios have been modelled to investigate their impact on flood peaks. These modelled outcomes are mapped to a simple Decision Support Matrix (DSM). The DSM encourages end users (e.g. land managers and policy makers) to develop an NFM scheme by studying the degree to which local runoff can be attenuated and how that flow will propagate through the network to the point of impact. The DSM relates the impact on flood peaks in terms of alterations to soil management practices and landscape flow connectivity (e.g. soil underdrainage), which can be easily understood by farmers and land managers. The DSM and the FIM together provide a simple to use and transparent modelling tool, making best use of expert knowledge, to support decision making.

  17. AIDA: Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, Patrick; Cheng, A.; Galvez, A.; Reed, C.; Carnelli, I.; Abell, P.; Ulamec, S.; Rivkin, A.; Biele, J.; Murdoch, N.

    2015-03-01

    AIDA (Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment) is a project of a joint mission demonstration of asteroid deflection and characterisation of the kinetic impact effects. It involves the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (with support from members of NASA centers including Goddard Space Flight Center, Johnson Space Center, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory), and the European Space Agency (with support from members of the french CNRS/Cte dAzur Observatory and the german DLR). This assessment will be done using a binary asteroid target. AIDA consists of two independent but mutually supporting mission concepts, one of which is the asteroid kinetic impactor and the other is the characterisation spacecraft. The objective and status of the project will be presented.

  18. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: a preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01

    In this preliminary and relatively short modeling effort, an initial assessment is made for the potential air quality implications of climate change in California. The focus is mainly on the effects of changes in temperature and related meteorological and emission factors on ozone formation. Photochemical modeling is performed for two areas in the state: the Los Angeles Basin and the Sacramento Valley.

  19. Gross national happiness as a framework for health impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Pennock, Michael; Ura, Karma

    2011-01-15

    The incorporation of population health concepts and health determinants into Health Impact Assessments has created a number of challenges. The need for intersectoral collaboration has increased; the meaning of 'health' has become less clear; and the distinctions between health impacts, environmental impacts, social impacts and economic impacts have become increasingly blurred. The Bhutanese concept of Gross National Happiness may address these issues by providing an over-arching evidence-based framework which incorporates health, social, environmental and economic contributors as well as a number of other key contributors to wellbeing such as culture and governance. It has the potential to foster intersectoral collaboration by incorporating a more limited definition of health which places the health sector as one of a number of contributors to wellbeing. It also allows for the examination of the opportunity costs of health investments on wellbeing, is consistent with whole-of-government approaches to public policy and emerging models of social progress.

  20. Assessing the impact of oil spills on a commercial fishery. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-11-01

    An oil spill fishery impact assessment system composed of fishery, hydrodynamic, ichthyoplankton transport and fates submodels has been applied to assess the probable impact of oil spills on several key fisheries in the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine region. The model system addresses direct impacts of oil on the commercial fishery through hydrocarbon induced egg and larval mortality.

  1. Using computational modeling to assess the impact of clinical decision support on cancer screening improvement strategies within the community health centers.

    PubMed

    Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A

    2014-10-01

    Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman's Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability.

  2. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-01-01

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated. PMID:26377091

  3. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-09-16

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated.

  4. Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

    2014-06-01

    This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

  5. Quantitative Assessment of the Potential of Afforestation for Carbon Dioxide Removal: Evaluating carbon sequestration and biogeophysical impacts in a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Littleton, E. W.

    2015-12-01

    This study presents a new method for representing permanent afforestation in Earth System models. Afforestation has attracted interest as an option to help to slow or reverse the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the next century. However, its potential is poorly constrained with regard to land availability, rates of tree growth and carbon accumulation, and potential side effects. This study aims to provide quantitative assessment of the carbon removal potential and side effects of 21st century afforestation using a dynamic global vegetation model, in contrast to the majority of previous estimates which have used bookkeeping methods. The land surface model JULES was used to simulate needleleaf afforestation on abandoned agricultural land during the 21st century under two future pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These results are compared to a control scenario in which natural succession is allowed to act on the same area of land. This study finds considerable spatial variation in the final carbon sequestration potential of afforestation sites. In addition to dieback and marginal growth in many regions, many sites showed minimal additionality of forest areas compared to natural succession. The most suitable sites were in Eastern Europe, central China and central North America. There was no major difference in the general spatial pattern of suitability between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2100. Overall, this study produced a significantly smaller estimate of the CDR potential of permanent afforestation than previous studies have. The additional carbon stored in suitable sites by 2100 was only 19 Pg C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 Pg C (RCP8.5), a mean of 68 tC/ha. This research also explored the biogeophysical impacts of afforestation on surface energy balance and hydrological cycles. The decrease in albedo caused by afforestation significantly offset the radiative forcing benefits of the carbon removal, although this effect was very sensitive to input assumptions. Flooding results

  6. Modeling dynamics of (137)Cs in forest surface environments: Application to a contaminated forest site near Fukushima and assessment of potential impacts of soil organic matter interactions.

    PubMed

    Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Koarashi, Jun

    2016-05-01

    A process-based model for (137)Cs transfer in forest surface environments was developed to assess the dynamic behavior of Fukushima-derived (137)Cs in a Japanese forest. The model simulation successfully reproduced the observed data from 3year migration of (137)Cs in the organic and mineral soil layers at a contaminated forest near Fukushima. The migration of (137)Cs from the organic layer to the mineral soil was explained by the direct deposition pattern on the forest floor and the turnover of litter materials in the organic layer under certain ecological conditions. Long-term predictions indicated that more than 90% of the deposited (137)Cs would remain within the top 5cm of the soil for up to 30years after the accident, suggesting that the forest acts as an effective long-term reservoir of (137)Cs with limited transfer via the groundwater pathway. The model was also used to explore the potential impacts of soil organic matter (SOM) interactions on the mobility and bioavailability of (137)Cs in the soil-plant system. The simulation results for hypothetical organic soils with modified parameters of (137)Cs turnover revealed that the SOM-induced reduction of (137)Cs adsorption elevates the fraction of dissolved (137)Cs in the soil solution, thereby increasing the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs without substantially altering the fractional distribution of (137)Cs in the soil. Slower fixation of (137)Cs on the flayed edge site of clay minerals and enhanced mobilization of the clay-fixed (137)Cs in organic-rich soils also appeared to elevate the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs by increasing the fraction of the soil-adsorbed (exchangeable) (137)Cs. A substantial proportion (approximate 30%-60%) of (137)Cs in these organic-rich soils was transferred to layers deeper than 5cm decades later. These results suggested that SOM influences the behavior of (137)Cs in forests over a prolonged period through alterations of adsorption and fixation in the soil.

  7. Modeling dynamics of (137)Cs in forest surface environments: Application to a contaminated forest site near Fukushima and assessment of potential impacts of soil organic matter interactions.

    PubMed

    Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Koarashi, Jun

    2016-05-01

    A process-based model for (137)Cs transfer in forest surface environments was developed to assess the dynamic behavior of Fukushima-derived (137)Cs in a Japanese forest. The model simulation successfully reproduced the observed data from 3year migration of (137)Cs in the organic and mineral soil layers at a contaminated forest near Fukushima. The migration of (137)Cs from the organic layer to the mineral soil was explained by the direct deposition pattern on the forest floor and the turnover of litter materials in the organic layer under certain ecological conditions. Long-term predictions indicated that more than 90% of the deposited (137)Cs would remain within the top 5cm of the soil for up to 30years after the accident, suggesting that the forest acts as an effective long-term reservoir of (137)Cs with limited transfer via the groundwater pathway. The model was also used to explore the potential impacts of soil organic matter (SOM) interactions on the mobility and bioavailability of (137)Cs in the soil-plant system. The simulation results for hypothetical organic soils with modified parameters of (137)Cs turnover revealed that the SOM-induced reduction of (137)Cs adsorption elevates the fraction of dissolved (137)Cs in the soil solution, thereby increasing the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs without substantially altering the fractional distribution of (137)Cs in the soil. Slower fixation of (137)Cs on the flayed edge site of clay minerals and enhanced mobilization of the clay-fixed (137)Cs in organic-rich soils also appeared to elevate the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs by increasing the fraction of the soil-adsorbed (exchangeable) (137)Cs. A substantial proportion (approximate 30%-60%) of (137)Cs in these organic-rich soils was transferred to layers deeper than 5cm decades later. These results suggested that SOM influences the behavior of (137)Cs in forests over a prolonged period through alterations of adsorption and fixation in the soil. PMID:26897402

  8. The impact of effective continuous positive airway pressure on homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance in non-diabetic patients with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea.

    PubMed

    Yang, Dan; Liu, Zhihong; Yang, Haixing

    2012-09-01

    Previous studies on the effects of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in obstructive sleep apnea patients have yielded conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of effective CPAP on HOMA-IR in non-diabetic patients with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea. We searched PubMed, HighWire Press, Ovid Medline (R), Cochrane library and EMBASE before December 2011 on original English language studies. The data on HOMA-IR and body mass index (BMI) were extracted from these studies. As compared with baseline values, 8 to 24 weeks of effective CPAP (>4 h/night) treatment significantly reduced HOMA-IR by an average of 0.75(95% CI, from -0.96 to -0.53; p < 0.001). However, in subjects with irregular CPAP (<4 h/night), this effect was not observed (-0.22; 95%CI, from -2.24 to 1.80; p = 0.83). There were no intervention-related changes in BMI in both regular and irregular CPAP. Our analysis showed that 8 to 24 weeks of effective CPAP could significantly improve HOMA-IR in non-diabetic patients with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, while no significant changes in BMI were detected. Further large scale, randomized and controlled trials are needed to evaluate the longer treatment and its possible effects on weight control and cardiovascular disease.

  9. Impacts of a Warming Arctic - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    2004-12-01

    The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels. Impacts of a Warming Arctic is a plain language synthesis of the key findings of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), designed to be accessible to policymakers and the broader public. The ACIA is a comprehensively researched, fully referenced, and independently reviewed evaluation of arctic climate change. It has involved an international effort by hundreds of scientists. This report provides vital information to society as it contemplates its responses to one of the greatest challenges of our time. It is illustrated in full color throughout.

  10. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  11. Health impact assessment of liquid biofuel production.

    PubMed

    Fink, Rok; Medved, Sašo

    2013-01-01

    Bioethanol and biodiesel as potential substitutes for fossil fuels in the transportation sector have been analyzed for environmental suitability. However, there could be impacts on human health during the production, therefore adverse health effects have to be analyzed. The aim of this study is to analyze to what health risk factors humans are exposed to in the production of biofuels and what the size of the health effects is. A health impact assessment expressed as disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was conducted in SimaPro 7.1 software. The results show a statistically significant lower carcinogenic impact of biofuels (p < 0.05) than fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the impact of organic respirable compounds is smaller for fossil fuels (p < 0.05) than for biofuels. Analysis of inorganic compounds like PM₁₀,₂.₅, SO₂ or NO(x) shows some advantages of sugar beet bioethanol and soybean biodiesel production (p < 0.05), although production of sugarcane bioethanol shows larger impacts of respirable inorganic compounds than for fossil fuels (p < 0.001). Although liquid biofuels are made of renewable energy sources, this does not necessary mean that they do not represent any health hazards. PMID:22774773

  12. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction.

  13. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction. PMID:18853818

  14. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  15. Injury risk assessment of non-lethal projectile head impacts.

    PubMed

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as "force wall approach" suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the "force wall approach" and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics. PMID:25400712

  16. Injury Risk Assessment of Non-Lethal Projectile Head Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as “force wall approach” suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the “force wall approach” and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics. PMID:25400712

  17. Needs Assessment Model: East Stroudsburg.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rookey, T. Jerome

    The concept of needs and educational assessment is a blending of community participation and evaluation. There are four primary steps in this concept: goal definition, program assessment, needs identification, and decision making. This document offers a guideline model aimed at a simple, economical method of needs and educational assessment. It…

  18. Elements of impact assessment: a case study with cyber attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Shanchieh Jay; Holsopple, Jared; Liu, Daniel

    2009-05-01

    Extensive discussions have taken place in recent year regarding impact assessment - what is it and how can we do it? It is especially intriguing in this modern era where non-traditional warfare has caused either information overload or limited understanding of adversary doctrines. This work provides a methodical discussion of key elements for the broad definition of impact assessment (IA). The discussion will start with a process flow involving components related to IA. Two key functional components, impact estimation and threat projection, are compared and illustrated in detail. These details include a discussion of when to model red and blue knowledge. Algorithmic approaches will be discussed, augmented with lessons learned from our IA development for cyber situation awareness. This paper aims at providing the community with a systematic understanding of IA and its open issues with specific examples.

  19. Ultrasonic impact damage assessment in 3D woven composite materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannai, E.; Lamboul, B.; Roche, J. M.

    2015-03-01

    An ultrasonic nondestructive methodology is proposed for the assessment of low velocity impact damage in a 3D woven composite material. The output data is intended for material scientists and numerical scientists to validate the damage tolerance performance of the manufactured materials and the reliability of damage modeling predictions. A depth-dependent threshold based on the reflectivity of flat bottom holes is applied to the ultrasonic data to remove the structural noise and isolate echoes of interest. The methodology was applied to a 3 mm thick 3D woven composite plate impacted with different energies. An artificial 3D representation of the detected echoes is proposed to enhance the spatial perception of the generated damage by the end user. The paper finally highlights some statistics made on the detected echoes to quantitatively assess the impact damage resistance of the tested specimens.

  20. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  1. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  2. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  3. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  4. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  5. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction...

  6. FORHYCS - a coupled, spatially distributed eco-hydrological model for assessing climate and land use change impact in Switzerland at landscape scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speich, Matthias; Lischke, Heike; Scherstjanoi, Marc; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2016-04-01

    Various modeling studies have shown that global climate and land use change are expected to have important impacts on the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of European mountainous regions. However, these models focus on either hydrological or ecological processes, while the respective other processes are represented in a simplified manner, e.g. using static parameters or empirical process formulations. This way, dynamic feedbacks between the water cycle and forest dynamics are neglected, which can influence long-term predictions. Integration of dynamic hydrological and ecological models increases the confidence in long-term forecasts by explicitly addressing this feedback. We present FORHYCS, a spatially distributed, coupled eco-hydrological model. FORHYCS is designed for application in temperate and Alpine regions at landscape scale, and consists of the integration of the rainfall-runoff model PREVAH and the forest-landscape model TreeMig. Both these models have previously been used in long-term climate impact studies in Switzerland. In the new, coupled model, both individual models are run simultaneously while exchanging information via a set of interface variables. The forest-landscape model is driven by annual bioclimatic variables (drought stress, snow cover duration, degree-day sum and winter chill), which are obtained through yearly integration of the local water balance as calculated by the hydrological model at an hourly time step. Growth, establishment and mortality of tree species, as simulated by the forest-landscape model, are used to calculate vegetation parameters (leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover), which in turn influence the partitioning of precipitation into interception loss, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture storage and runoff. Furthermore, the vegetation cover in each grid cell is used to determine and update its land cover class, which allows the simulation of forest advancement or retreat and its hydrological

  7. Assessing the Impact of the Cambridge International Acceleration Program on U.S. University Determinants of Success: A Multi-Level Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Stuart; Warren, Jayne; Gill, Tim

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the research being conducted by Cambridge International Examinations (Cambridge) to ensure that its international assessments prepare students as well as other acceleration programs for continued study in U.S. colleges and universities. The study, which builds on previous freshman GPA data modeling work using data supplied…

  8. Assessing the environmental impacts of aircraft noise and emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahashabde, Anuja; Wolfe, Philip; Ashok, Akshay; Dorbian, Christopher; He, Qinxian; Fan, Alice; Lukachko, Stephen; Mozdzanowska, Aleksandra; Wollersheim, Christoph; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Locke, Maryalice; Waitz, Ian A.

    2011-01-01

    With the projected growth in demand for commercial aviation, many anticipate increased environmental impacts associated with noise, air quality, and climate change. Therefore, decision-makers and stakeholders are seeking policies, technologies, and operational procedures that balance environmental and economic interests. The main objective of this paper is to address shortcomings in current decision-making practices for aviation environmental policies. We review knowledge of the noise, air quality, and climate impacts of aviation, and demonstrate how including environmental impact assessment and quantifying uncertainties can enable a more comprehensive evaluation of aviation environmental policies. A comparison is presented between the cost-effectiveness analysis currently used for aviation environmental policy decision-making and an illustrative cost-benefit analysis. We focus on assessing a subset of the engine NO X emissions certification stringency options considered at the eighth meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection. The FAA Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) is employed to conduct the policy assessments. We show that different conclusions may be drawn about the same policy options depending on whether benefits and interdependencies are estimated in terms of health and welfare impacts versus changes in NO X emissions inventories as is the typical practice. We also show that these conclusions are sensitive to a variety of modeling uncertainties. While our more comprehensive analysis makes the best policy option less clear, it represents a more accurate characterization of the scientific and economic uncertainties underlying impacts and the policy choices.

  9. Tsunami Forecast Technology for Asteroid Impact Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.

    2015-12-01

    Over 75% of all historically documented tsunamis have been generated by earthquakes. As the result, all existing Tsunami Warning and Forecast systems focus almost exclusively on detecting, warning and forecasting earthquake-generated tsunamis.The sequence of devastating tsunamis across the globe over the past 10 years has significantly heightened awareness and preparation activities associated with these high-impact events. Since the catastrophic 2004 Sumatra tsunami, NOAA has invested significant efforts in modernizing the U.S. tsunami warning system. Recent developments in tsunami modeling capability, inundation forecasting, sensing networks, dissemination capability and local preparation and mitigation activities have gone a long way toward enhancing tsunami resilience within the United States. The remaining quarter of the tsunami hazard problem is related to other mechanisms of tsunami generation, that may not have received adequate attention. Among those tsunami sources, the asteroid impact may be the most exotic, but possible one of the most devastating tsunami generation mechanisms. Tsunami forecast capabilities that have been developed for the tsunami warning system can be used to explore both, hazard assessment and the forecast of a tsunami generated by the asteroid impact. Existing tsunami flooding forecast technology allows for forecast for non-seismically generated tsunamis (asteroid impact, meteo-generated tsunamis, landslides, etc.), given an adequate data for the tsunami source parameters. Problems and opportunities for forecast of tsunamis from asteroid impact will be discussed. Preliminary results of impact-generated tsunami analysis for forecast and hazard assessment will be presented.

  10. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  11. A comparison between monitoring and dispersion modeling approaches to assess the impact of aviation on concentrations of black carbon and nitrogen oxides at Los Angeles International Airport.

    PubMed

    Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Tripodis, Yorghos; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Levy, Jonathan I

    2015-09-15

    Aircraft activity and airport operations can increase combustion-related air pollutant concentrations, but it is difficult to distinguish aviation emissions from traffic and other local sources. Emission inventories are uncertain and dispersion models may not capture aircraft plume complexity; ambient monitoring data require detailed statistical analyses to extract aviation signals. The goal of this study is to compare two modeling approaches including monitoring-based regression models and the EDMS/AERMOD dispersion model, informing improvements and allowing quantitation of aviation impacts on air quality through multi-pollutant sensitivity and multi-monitor fate/transport analyses. Aggregate concentration comparisons are similar, though diurnal patterns show potential weaknesses in near-field dispersion, treatment of overnight conditions, and emission inventory accuracy. PMID:25956147

  12. A comparison between monitoring and dispersion modeling approaches to assess the impact of aviation on concentrations of black carbon and nitrogen oxides at Los Angeles International Airport.

    PubMed

    Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Tripodis, Yorghos; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Levy, Jonathan I

    2015-09-15

    Aircraft activity and airport operations can increase combustion-related air pollutant concentrations, but it is difficult to distinguish aviation emissions from traffic and other local sources. Emission inventories are uncertain and dispersion models may not capture aircraft plume complexity; ambient monitoring data require detailed statistical analyses to extract aviation signals. The goal of this study is to compare two modeling approaches including monitoring-based regression models and the EDMS/AERMOD dispersion model, informing improvements and allowing quantitation of aviation impacts on air quality through multi-pollutant sensitivity and multi-monitor fate/transport analyses. Aggregate concentration comparisons are similar, though diurnal patterns show potential weaknesses in near-field dispersion, treatment of overnight conditions, and emission inventory accuracy.

  13. Modeling and assessment of electricity market initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokrian, Pedram

    This body of work is dedicated to the modeling and assessment of initiatives within electricity markets using the underlying hourly market dynamics. The dissertation presents two separate frameworks that take a bottom-up approach for assessing benefits associated with various demand-side initiatives and other emerging interventions in power markets. Models in support of each framework are presented, and numerical results are used to highlight some impacts based on hourly dynamics. The first framework uses stochastic optimization models to explore the economic feasibility of grid-scale energy storage from the perspective of a price taking, profit maximizing firm facing uncertain market dynamics. This model is then extended to incorporate intermittent wind generation, demonstrating how storage can be used as a potential substitute for transmission capacity. The second framework uses a new dynamic market equilibrium simulation model to address broader economic and environmental impacts of various demand-side initiatives including: energy efficiency, distributed generation, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The general model is calibrated for the California electricity market. The model is used to estimate impacts of the various interventions, taking into account varying market adoption levels and natural gas prices.

  14. Impact fragmentation of model flocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Pearson W.; Ouellette, Nicholas T.

    2014-04-01

    Predicting the bulk material properties of active matter is challenging since these materials are far from equilibrium and standard statistical-mechanics approaches may fail. We report a computational study of the surface properties of a well known active matter system: aggregations of self-propelled particles that are coupled via an orientational interaction and that resemble bird flocks. By simulating the impact of these models flocks on an impermeable surface, we find that they fragment into subflocks with power-law mass distributions, similar to shattering brittle solids but not to splashing liquid drops. Thus, we find that despite the interparticle interactions, these model flocks do not possess an emergent surface tension.

  15. Functional measures of stream impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, B.H.

    1994-12-31

    The effects of elevated metals (primarily Zn) in a Rocky Mountain stream were assessed using measures of primary productivity, community respiration, and phosphatase activity. Primary productivity was measured as rates of mass and chlorophyll a accumulation on ceramic tiles, and as O{sub 2}, evolution from natural substrates incubated in situ in closed chambers. Community respiration was measured in situ by incubating fine-grained sediments, collected and composited along each stream study reach, in closed chambers and measuring O{sub 2} depletion. Alkaline and acid phosphatase activity were measured for periphyton scraped from ceramic tiles and natural substrates. Primary productivity, measured as chlorophyll accretion rates and O{sup 2} evolution, were depressed by increasing Zn concentrations. Productivity measured as mass accretion rates did not show significant Zn effects. Community respiration was depressed by increasing Zn concentrations, as was alkaline phosphatase activity. Acid phosphatase activity was higher at the more impacted sites. Overall, functional measures were able to discern those sites receiving greater metal impacts from less impacted sites.

  16. Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

  17. Groundwater resources impact assessment for triazine herbicides

    SciTech Connect

    Waldman, E.; Barrett, M.R.; Behl, E.

    1996-10-01

    The Environmental Fate and Ground Water Branch of EPA`s Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) has conducted a Water Resources Impact Assessment of the potential for triazine herbicides to be transported to ground and surface waters (only ground-water is discussed in this paper). The herbicides discussed in this document include atrazine, cyanazine, simazine, and prometon. Part of OPP`s regulatory mission is to prevent contamination of ground and surface water resources resulting from the normal use of registered pesticides. OPP has recently produced several resource documents to support such activities at the federal, state, and local levels (e.g., the Pesticides and Ground-Water Strategy and the Pesticides in Ground Water Database). This Water Resources Impact Assessment will also be useful in assisting state and regional agencies in customizing risk reduction strategies and to implement proposed pollution prevention measures. Major conclusions include: Atrazine is the most frequently detected pesticide in ground water in virtually the entire Midwestern United States, and especially in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. The Pesticides in Ground Water Database 1992 Report indicates that atrazine has been detected in 32 out of the 40 states that have reported monitoring data, and in 1,512 wells (6%) of the wells sampled. Based on EPA`s National Pesticide Survey (NPS), 4.7% of rural domestic drinking water wells in the U.S. (490,000 wells) are estimated to contain atrazine, mostly at concentrations less than 0.12 {mu}g/L (the MCL for atrazine is 3 {mu}g/L). Triazine herbicides other than atrazine (simazine, cyanazine, and prometon) have had much less impact on ground-water quality than atrazine, primarily because they are less intensively used.

  18. The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2008-01-01

    The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

  19. An innovative modeling approach using Qual2K and HEC-RAS integration to assess the impact of tidal effect on River Water quality simulation.

    PubMed

    Fan, Chihhao; Ko, Chun-Han; Wang, Wei-Shen

    2009-04-01

    Water quality modeling has been shown to be a useful tool in strategic water quality management. The present study combines the Qual2K model with the HEC-RAS model to assess the water quality of a tidal river in northern Taiwan. The contaminant loadings of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH(3)-N), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment oxygen demand (SOD) are utilized in the Qual2K simulation. The HEC-RAS model is used to: (i) estimate the hydraulic constants for atmospheric re-aeration constant calculation; and (ii) calculate the water level profile variation to account for concentration changes as a result of tidal effect. The results show that HEC-RAS-assisted Qual2K simulations taking tidal effect into consideration produce water quality indices that, in general, agree with the monitoring data of the river. Comparisons of simulations with different combinations of contaminant loadings demonstrate that BOD is the most import contaminant. Streeter-Phelps simulation (in combination with HEC-RAS) is also performed for comparison, and the results show excellent agreement with the observed data. This paper is the first report of the innovative use of a combination of the HEC-RAS model and the Qual2K model (or Streeter-Phelps equation) to simulate water quality in a tidal river. The combination is shown to provide an alternative for water quality simulation of a tidal river when available dynamic-monitoring data are insufficient to assess the tidal effect of the river.

  20. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    PubMed

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models. PMID:26826362

  1. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    PubMed

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models.

  2. Modeling HIV Vaccines in Brazil: Assessing the Impact of a Future HIV Vaccine on Reducing New Infections, Mortality and Number of People Receiving ARV

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Maria Goretti P.; Forsythe, Steven; Menezes, Alexandre; Vuthoori, Shilpa; Possas, Cristina; Veloso, Valdiléa; de Fátima Lucena, Francisca; Stover, John

    2010-01-01

    Background The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios. Methods and Findings The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections. Conclusions Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial. PMID:20668523

  3. Impact of aircraft emissions on air quality in the vicinity of airports. Volume II. An updated model assessment of aircraft generated air pollution at LAX, JFK, and ORD. Final report Jan 1978-Jul 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Yamartino, R.J.; Smith, D.G.; Bremer, S.A.; Heinold, D.; Lamich, D.

    1980-07-01

    This report documents the results of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality study which has been conducted to assess the impact of aircraft emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the vicinity of airports. This assessment includes the results of recent modeling and monitoring efforts at Washington National (DCA), Los Angeles International (LAX), Dulles International (IAD), and Lakeland, Florida airports and an updated modeling of aircraft generated pollution at LAX, John F. Kennedy (JFK) and Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airports. The Airport Vicinity Air Pollution (AVAP) model which was designed for use at civil airports was used in this assessment. In addition the results of the application of the military version of the AVAP model the Air Quality Assessment Model (AQAM), are summarized. Both the results of the pollution monitoring analyses in Volume I and the modeling studies in Volume II suggest that: maximum hourly average CO concentrations from aircraft are unlikely to exceed 5 parts per million (ppm) in areas of public exposure and are thus small in comparison to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35 ppm; maximum hourly HC concentrations from aircraft can exceed 0.25 ppm over an area several times the size of the airport; and annual average NO2 concentrations from aircraft are estimated to contribute only 10 to 20 percent of the NAAQS limit level.

  4. Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are

  5. Models of Personnel Needs Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mattson, Beverly

    This report presents samples of models and strategies for determining professional development needs of special education personnel. The following areas are covered: definitions of needs and the needs assessment process; personnel needs assessment regulations under the Comprehensive System of Personnel Development, the Individuals with…

  6. Model for assessing psychosocial problems.

    PubMed Central

    Tannenbaum, D.; McGillivray, M.

    1996-01-01

    The Model for the Assessment of Psychosocial Problems (MAPP) can help family medicine residents effectively assess patients with psychosocial problems. Following a patient-centred clinical method, MAPP provides a guide to exploring problems and an approach that allows residents and patients jointly to define problems and decide upon management. Emphasis is placed on clarifying patients' expectations of physicians. PMID:9222578

  7. The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

  8. Assessing the impact of end-member selection on the accuracy of satellite-based spatial variability models for actual evapotranspiration estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Di; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-05-01

    This study examines the impact of end-member (i.e., hot and cold extremes) selection on the performance and mechanisms of error propagation in satellite-based spatial variability models for estimating actual evapotranspiration, using the triangle, surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL), and mapping evapotranspiration with high resolution and internalized calibration (METRIC) models. These models were applied to the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling experiment site in central Iowa on two Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus acquisition dates in 2002. Evaporative fraction (EF, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to availability energy) estimates from the three models at field and watershed scales were examined using varying end-members. Results show that the end-members fundamentally determine the magnitudes of EF retrievals at both field and watershed scales. The hot and cold extremes exercise a similar impact on the discrepancy between the EF estimates and the ground-based measurements, i.e., given a hot (cold) extreme, the EF estimates tend to increase with increasing temperature of cold (hot) extreme, and decrease with decreasing temperature of cold (hot) extreme. The coefficient of determination between the EF estimates and the ground-based measurements depends principally on the capability of remotely sensed surface temperature (Ts) to capture EF (i.e., depending on the correlation between Ts and EF measurements), being slightly influenced by the end-members. Varying the end-members does not substantially affect the standard deviation and skewness of the EF frequency distributions from the same model at the watershed scale. However, different models generate markedly different EF frequency distributions due to differing model physics, especially the limiting edges of EF defined in the remotely sensed vegetation fraction (fc) and Ts space. In general, the end-members cannot be properly determined because (1) they do not

  9. Local Modelling Techniques for Assessing Micro-Level Impacts of Risk Factors in Complex Data: Understanding Health and Socioeconomic Inequalities in Childhood Educational Attainments

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A.; Bodger, Owen G.; John, Ann; Brunt, Huw; Jones, Kerina; Gravenor, Mike B.; Brophy, Sinead

    2014-01-01

    Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational

  10. Local modelling techniques for assessing micro-level impacts of risk factors in complex data: understanding health and socioeconomic inequalities in childhood educational attainments.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A; Bodger, Owen G; John, Ann; Brunt, Huw; Jones, Kerina; Gravenor, Mike B; Brophy, Sinead

    2014-01-01

    Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, "Micro-impact of Domain" and "Contribution of Domain", to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could

  11. A Physically Based Surface/ Subsurface Flow Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change Extremes on the Hydrology of an Upper Midwest U.S. Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Midwest U.S. Occurrence and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods are expected to increase in the next few decades. It is the climate extremes, not averages, that have the greater impact on crop and livestock productivity which are vital for the State's economy. Accordingly, potential changes in the hydrologic cycle under prospective climate conditions need to be addressed at the watershed scale for the Midwestern agricultural region to develop better management and adaptation solutions. For this purpose, the 3-D finite element model, HydroGeoSphere has been applied to and calibrated for a representative watershed in north-central Iowa, Tipton Creek watershed. The conceptual model for the watershed consists of all the elements of the hydrologic cycle from the ground surface through the Quaternary aquitard and into the underlying Mississippian limestone aquifer. Extreme wet and dry conditions derived from statistically downscaled climate model scenarios have been used as input to the basin model to simulate the impacts on streamflow and groundwater flow. The model accomplishes integrated hydrologic analysis by the coupled solution of the diffusion wave equation governing 2-D (areal) surface water flow and the Richards' equation governing 3-D unsaturated/ saturated subsurface flow. Thus, actual evapotranspiration is calculated internally as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone at each time step and interdependent processes like recharge that are critical for climate change can be handled more accurately. Preliminary results for HadCM3 scenario combined with two SRES projections, A2 and A1fi predict more remarkable increases in stream levels in response to wet periods than the decreases in flows for dry periods in comparison to control (contemporary) period simulations. The impacts on the water table levels seem to be more prominent, in the range of ±4 m for

  12. Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

    2013-04-01

    Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

  13. The Assessment Cycle: A Model for Learning through Peer Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reinholz, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This paper advances a model describing how peer assessment supports self-assessment. Although prior research demonstrates that peer assessment promotes self-assessment, the connection between these two activities is underspecified. This model, the assessment cycle, draws from theories of self-assessment to elaborate how learning takes place…

  14. Health Impact Assessment of Urban Development Project

    PubMed Central

    Shojaei, Parisa; Karimlou, Masoud; Mohammadi, Farahnaz; Malekafzali, Hosein

    2016-01-01

    Background: Health impact assessment (HIA) has emerged to identify those activities and policies likely to have major impacts on the health of a population. Method: In this research, qualitative method was applied to identifying health determinants that urban man made lake affect on them, formatting and weighing the hierarchy of the factors, calculating AHP, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method for decide and ranking alternatives. Results: According to the results of the study, from the structural determinants point of view, the most positive effect of man-made lake was on Recreational services by 89.5% and the most negative one was on housing. According to intermediary determinants and general average, the most positive effect of lake was on physical activity and quality of air by 88.9% and the most negative one was on noise pollution by 46.7%. Ultimately, considering the positive and negative effects of lake between constructing and not constructing the lake option, the construction option was selected. Conclusion: There is substantial potential to improve public health by bringing decision makers’ attention to the health consequences of their actions; city councilpersons, zoning commissioners, and other decision makers typically have little background in health. PMID:27157160

  15. Integrated environmental impact assessment: a Canadian example.

    PubMed Central

    Kwiatkowski, Roy E.; Ooi, Maria

    2003-01-01

    The Canadian federal process for environmental impact assessment (EIA) integrates health, social, and environmental aspects into either a screening, comprehensive study, or a review by a public panel, depending on the expected severity of potential adverse environmental effects. In this example, a Public Review Panel considered a proposed diamond mining project in Canada's northern territories, where 50% of the population are Aboriginals. The Panel specifically instructed the project proposer to determine how to incorporate traditional knowledge into the gathering of baseline information, preparing impact prediction, and planning mitigation and monitoring. Traditional knowledge is defined as the knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and/or local communities developed from experience gained over the centuries and adapted to local culture and environment. The mining company was asked to consider in its EIA: health, demographics, social and cultural patterns; services and infrastructure; local, regional and territorial economy; land and resource use; employment, education and training; government; and other matters. Cooperative efforts between government, industry and the community led to a project that coordinated the concerns of all interested stakeholders and the needs of present and future generations, thereby meeting the goals of sustainable development. The mitigation measures that were implemented take into account: income and social status, social support networks, education, employment and w