Making a meaningful impact: modelling simultaneous frictional collisions in spatial multibody systems

PubMed Central

Uchida, Thomas K.; Sherman, Michael A.; Delp, Scott L.

2015-01-01

Impacts are instantaneous, computationally efficient approximations of collisions. Current impact models sacrifice important physical principles to achieve that efficiency, yielding qualitative and quantitative errors when applied to simultaneous impacts in spatial multibody systems. We present a new impact model that produces behaviour similar to that of a detailed compliant contact model, while retaining the efficiency of an instantaneous method. In our model, time and configuration are fixed, but the impact is resolved into distinct compression and expansion phases, themselves comprising sliding and rolling intervals. A constrained optimization problem is solved for each interval to compute incremental impulses while respecting physical laws and principles of contact mechanics. We present the mathematical model, algorithms for its practical implementation, and examples that demonstrate its effectiveness. In collisions involving materials of various stiffnesses, our model can be more than 20 times faster than integrating through the collision using a compliant contact model. This work extends the use of instantaneous impact models to scientific and engineering applications with strict accuracy requirements, where compliant contact models would otherwise be required. An open-source implementation is available in Simbody, a C++ multibody dynamics library widely used in biomechanical and robotic applications. PMID:27547093

Explicit Finite Element Modeling of Multilayer Composite Fabric for Gas Turbine Engine Containment Systems. Part 2; Ballistic Impact Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pereira, J. M.; Revilock, D. M.

2004-01-01

Under the Federal Aviation Administration's Airworthiness Assurance Center of Excellence and the Aircraft Catastrophic Failure Prevention Program, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Glenn Research Center collaborated with Arizona State University, Honeywell Engines, Systems and Services, and SRI International to develop improved computational models for designing fabric-based engine containment systems. In the study described in this report, ballistic impact tests were conducted on layered dry fabric rings to provide impact response data for calibrating and verifying the improved numerical models. This report provides data on projectile velocity, impact and residual energy, and fabric deformation for a number of different test conditions.

Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J.; Ek, M. B.; Wei, H.; Meng, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface serves as lower boundary forcing in global forecast system (GFS) and climate forecast system (CFS), simulating interactions between land and the atmosphere. Understanding the underlying land model physics is a key to improving weather and seasonal prediction skills. With the upgrades in land model physics (e.g., release of newer versions of a land model), different land initializations, changes in parameterization schemes used in the land model (e.g., land physical parametrization options), and how the land impact is handled (e.g., physics ensemble approach), it always prompts the necessity that climate prediction experiments need to be re-conducted to examine its impact. The current NASA LIS (version 7) integrates NOAA operational land surface and hydrological models (NCEP's Noah, versions from 2.7.1 to 3.6 and the future Noah-MP), high-resolution satellite and observational data, and land DA tools. The newer versions of the Noah LSM used in operational models have a variety of enhancements compared to older versions, where the Noah-MP allows for different physics parameterization options and the choice could have large impact on physical processes underlying seasonal predictions. These impacts need to be reexamined before implemented into NCEP operational systems. A set of offline numerical experiments driven by the GFS forecast forcing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of snow modeling with daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land: a comparison of existing models for life cycle assessment of waste systems.

PubMed

Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, Sonia

2006-04-01

Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact assessment of environmental effects from land application of treated organic MSW: DST (Decision Support Tool, USA), IWM (Integrated Waste Management, U.K.), THE IFEU PROJECT (Germany), ORWARE (ORganic WAste REsearch, Sweden) and EASEWASTE (Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technologies, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers. THE IFEU PROJECT, ORWARE and EASEWASTE are life cycle assessment (LCA) models containing more detailed land application modules. A case study estimating the environmental impacts from land application of 1 ton of composted source sorted organic household waste was performed to compare the results from the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts of the system. However, due to slightly different assumptions, quantification methods and environmental impact assessment, the obtained results varied clearly between the models. Furthermore, local conditions (e.g. soil type, farm type, climate and legal regulation) and waste composition strongly influenced the results of the environmental assessment.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Life Cycle Cost Impact Modeling System Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM)--Description. Users Guide. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goclowski, John C.; And Others

The Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM) described in this report is an interactive mathematical model with a built-in sensitivity analysis capability. It is a major component of the Life Cycle Cost Impact Model (LCCIM), which was developed as part of the DAIS advanced development program to be used to assess the potential impacts…

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehleringer, James; Randerson, James; Lai, Chun-Ta

The objective of the proposed research was to collect data and develop models to improve our understanding of the role of drought and fire impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle in the western US, including impacts associated with urban systems as they impacted regional carbon cycles. Using data we collected and a synthesis of other measurements, we developed new ways (a) to evaluate the representation of drought stress and fire emissions in the Community Land Model, (b) to model net ecosystem exchange combining ground level atmospheric observations with boundary layer theory, (c) to model upstream impacts of fire and fossilmore » fuel emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide observations, and (d) to model carbon dioxide observations within urban systems and at the urban-wildland interfaces of forest ecosystems.« less

Environmental impact analysis with the airspace concept evaluation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Augustine, Stephen; Capozzi, Brian; DiFelici, John; Graham, Michael; Thompson, Terry; Miraflor, Raymond M. C.

2005-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center has developed the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), which is a fast-time simulation tool for evaluating Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. This paper describes linking a capability to ACES which can analyze the environmental impact of proposed future ATM systems. This provides the ability to quickly evaluate metrics associated with environmental impacts of aviation for inclusion in multi-dimensional cost-benefit analysis of concepts for evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS) over the next several decades. The methodology used here may be summarized as follows: 1) Standard Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) noise and emissions-inventory models, the Noise Impact Routing System (NIRS) and the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS), respectively, are linked to ACES simulation outputs; 2) appropriate modifications are made to ACES outputs to incorporate all information needed by the environmental models (e.g., specific airframe and engine data); 3) noise and emissions calculations are performed for all traffic and airports in the study area for each of several scenarios, as simulated by ACES; and 4) impacts of future scenarios are compared to the current NAS baseline scenario. This paper also provides the results of initial end-to-end, proof-of-concept runs of the integrated ACES and environmental-modeling capability. These preliminary results demonstrate that if no growth is likely to be impeded by significant environmental impacts that could negatively affect communities throughout the nation.

Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

PubMed Central

Häsler, Barbara; Alarcon, Pablo; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Rushton, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Aims and objectives The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the financial impact of Schmallenberg disease for different dairy production types in the United Kingdom and France. Materials and methods Integrated production and financial models for dairy cattle were developed and applied to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) disease in a British and French context. The five main production systems that prevail in these two countries were considered. Their respective gross margins measuring the holding's profitability were calculated based on public benchmarking, literature and expert opinion data. A partial budget analysis was performed within each production model to estimate the impact of SBV in the systems modelled. Two disease scenarios were simulated: low impact and high impact. Results The model gross margin obtained per cow space and year ranged from £1014 to £1484 for the UK and from £1037 to £1890 for France depending on the production system considered. In the UK, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year for an average dairy farm with 100 milking spaces were estimated between £16.3 and £51.4 in the high-impact scenario and between £8.2 and £25.9 in the low-impact scenario. For France, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year ranged from £19.6 to £48.6 in the high-impact scenario and £9.7 to £22.8 in the low-impact scenario, respectively. Conclusion The study illustrates how the combination of production and financial models allows assessing disease impact taking into account differing management and husbandry practices and associated price structures in the dairy sector. It supports decision-making of farmers and veterinarians who are considering disease control measures as it provides an approach to estimate baseline disease impact in common dairy production systems in the UK and France. PMID:26392883

Examination of Observation Impacts derived from OSEs and Adjoint Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ronald

2008-01-01

With the adjoint of a data assimilation system, the impact of any or all assimilated observations on measures of forecast skill can be estimated accurately and efficiently. The approach allows aggregation of results in terms of individual data types, channels or locations, all computed simultaneously. In this study, adjoint-based estimates of observation impact are compared with results from standard observing system experiments (OSEs) in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) GEOS-5 system. The two approaches are shown to provide unique, but complimentary, information. Used together, they reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed. Understanding these dependencies poses a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

An integrated modeling framework for exploring flow regime and water quality changes with increasing biofuel crop production in the U.S. Corn Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaeger, Mary A.; Housh, Mashor; Cai, Ximing; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2014-12-01

To better address the dynamic interactions between human and hydrologic systems, we develop an integrated modeling framework that employs a System of Systems optimization model to emulate human development decisions which are then incorporated into a watershed model to estimate the resulting hydrologic impacts. The two models are run interactively to simulate the coevolution of coupled human-nature systems, such that reciprocal feedbacks between hydrologic processes and human decisions (i.e., human impacts on critical low flows and hydrologic impacts on human decisions on land and water use) can be assessed. The framework is applied to a Midwestern U.S. agricultural watershed, in the context of proposed biofuels development. This operation is illustrated by projecting three possible future coevolution trajectories, two of which use dedicated biofuel crops to reduce annual watershed nitrate export while meeting ethanol production targets. Imposition of a primary external driver (biofuel mandate) combined with different secondary drivers (water quality targets) results in highly nonlinear and multiscale responses of both the human and hydrologic systems, including multiple tradeoffs, impacting the future coevolution of the system in complex, heterogeneous ways. The strength of the hydrologic response is sensitive to the magnitude of the secondary driver; 45% nitrate reduction target leads to noticeable impacts at the outlet, while a 30% reduction leads to noticeable impacts that are mainly local. The local responses are conditioned by previous human-hydrologic modifications and their spatial relationship to the new biofuel development, highlighting the importance of past coevolutionary history in predicting future trajectories of change.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Modeling Imperfect Generator Behavior in Power System Operation Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krad, Ibrahim

A key component in power system operations is the use of computer models to quickly study and analyze different operating conditions and futures in an efficient manner. The output of these models are sensitive to the data used in them as well as the assumptions made during their execution. One typical assumption is that generators and load assets perfectly follow operator control signals. While this is a valid simulation assumption, generators may not always accurately follow control signals. This imperfect response of generators could impact cost and reliability metrics. This paper proposes a generator model that capture this imperfect behaviormore » and examines its impact on production costs and reliability metrics using a steady-state power system operations model. Preliminary analysis shows that while costs remain relatively unchanged, there could be significant impacts on reliability metrics.« less

Investigation of dynamic characteristics of a rotor system with surface coatings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Cao, Dengqing; Wang, Deyou

2017-02-01

A Jeffcott rotor system with surface coatings capable of describing the mechanical vibration resulting from unbalance and rub-impact is formulated in this article. A contact force model proposed recently to describe the impact force between the disc and casing with coatings is employed to do the dynamic analysis for the rotor system with rubbing fault. Due to the variation of penetration, the contact force model is correspondingly modified. Meanwhile, the Coulomb friction model is applied to simulate the friction characteristics. Then, the case study of rub-impact with surface coatings is simulated by the Runge-Kutta method, in which a linear interpolation method is adopted to predict the rubbing instant. Moreover, the dynamic characteristics of the rotor system with surface coatings are analyzed in terms of bifurcation plot, waveform, whirl orbit, Poincaré map and spectrum plot. And the effects of the hardness of surface coatings on the response are investigated as well. Finally, compared with the classical models, the modified contact force model is shown to be more suitable to solve the rub-impact of aero-engine with surface coatings.

Impacts of rainfall spatial variability on hydrogeological response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Navarro, Vicente; Slooten, Luit Jan; Carrera, Jesús; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2015-02-01

There is currently no general consensus on how the spatial variability of rainfall impacts and propagates through complex hydrogeological systems. Most studies to date have focused on the effects of rainfall spatial variability (RSV) on river discharge, while paying little attention to other important aspects of system response. Here, we study the impacts of RSV on several responses of a hydrological model of an overexploited system. To this end, we drive a spatially distributed hydrogeological model for the semiarid Upper Guadiana basin in central Spain with stochastic daily rainfall fields defined at three different spatial resolutions (fine → 2.5 km × 2.5 km, medium → 50 km × 50 km, large → lumped). This enables us to investigate how (i) RSV at different spatial resolutions, and (ii) rainfall uncertainty, are propagated through the hydrogeological model of the system. Our results demonstrate that RSV has a significant impact on the modeled response of the system, by specifically affecting groundwater recharge and runoff generation, and thereby propagating through to various other related hydrological responses (river discharge, river-aquifer exchange, groundwater levels). These results call into question the validity of management decisions made using hydrological models calibrated or forced with spatially lumped rainfall.

Modelling and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems: envisioning and analysing work environments

PubMed Central

Hettinger, Lawrence J.; Kirlik, Alex; Goh, Yang Miang; Buckle, Peter

2015-01-01

Accurate comprehension and analysis of complex sociotechnical systems is a daunting task. Empirically examining, or simply envisioning the structure and behaviour of such systems challenges traditional analytic and experimental approaches as well as our everyday cognitive capabilities. Computer-based models and simulations afford potentially useful means of accomplishing sociotechnical system design and analysis objectives. From a design perspective, they can provide a basis for a common mental model among stakeholders, thereby facilitating accurate comprehension of factors impacting system performance and potential effects of system modifications. From a research perspective, models and simulations afford the means to study aspects of sociotechnical system design and operation, including the potential impact of modifications to structural and dynamic system properties, in ways not feasible with traditional experimental approaches. This paper describes issues involved in the design and use of such models and simulations and describes a proposed path forward to their development and implementation. Practitioner Summary: The size and complexity of real-world sociotechnical systems can present significant barriers to their design, comprehension and empirical analysis. This article describes the potential advantages of computer-based models and simulations for understanding factors that impact sociotechnical system design and operation, particularly with respect to process and occupational safety. PMID:25761227

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also, statistics such as the number of times certain WASSI thresholds are exceeded are calculated to show the impact of expanded irrigation during times of hydrologic drought and the coincident use of water by other sectors. Also, integrated downstream impacts of irrigation are also calculated through changes in flows through the whole river systems.

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

Impact of immigrants on a multi-agent economical system

PubMed Central

Razakanirina, Ranaivo; Groen, Derek

2018-01-01

We consider a multi-agent model of a simple economical system and study the impacts of a wave of immigrants on the stability of the system. Our model couples a labor market with a goods market. We first create a stable economy with N agents and study the impact of adding n new workers in the system. The time to reach a new equilibrium market is found to obey a power law in n. The new wages and market prices are observed to decrease as 1/n, whereas the wealth of agents remains unchanged. PMID:29795633

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

NASA High-Speed 2D Photogrammetric Measurement System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dismond, Harriett R.

2012-01-01

The object of this report is to provide users of the NASA high-speed 2D photogrammetric measurement system with procedures required to obtain drop-model trajectory and impact data for full-scale and sub-scale models. This guide focuses on use of the system for vertical drop testing at the NASA Langley Landing and Impact Research (LandIR) Facility.

Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

2014-06-01

This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

Operational Monitoring of Data Production at KNMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Vegte, John; Kwidama, Anecita; van Moosel, Wim; Oosterhof, Rijk; de Wit de Wit, Ronny; Klein Ikkink, Henk Jan; Som de Cerff, Wim; Verhoef, Hans; Koutek, Michal; Duin, Frank; van der Neut, Ian; verhagen, Robert; Wollerich, Rene

2016-04-01

Within KNMI a new fully automated system for monitoring the KNMI operational data production systems is being developed: PRISMA (PRocessflow Infrastructure Surveillance and Monitoring Application). Currently the KNMI operational (24/7) production systems consist of over 60 applications, running on different hardware systems and platforms. They are interlinked for the production of numerous data products, which are delivered to internal and external customers. Traditionally these applications are individually monitored by different applications or not at all; complicating root cause and impact analysis. Also, the underlying hardware and network is monitored via an isolated application. Goal of the PRISMA system is to enable production chain monitoring, which enables root cause analysis (what is the root cause of the disruption) and impact analysis (what downstream products/customers will be effected). The PRISMA system will make it possible to reduce existing monitoring applications and provides one interface for monitoring the data production. For modeling and storing the state of the production chains a graph database is used. The model is automatically updated by the applications and systems which are to be monitored. The graph models enables root cause and impact analysis. In the PRISMA web interface interaction with the graph model is accomplished via a graphical representation. The presentation will focus on aspects of: • Modeling real world computers, applications, products to a conceptual model; • Architecture of the system; • Configuration information and (real world) event handling of the to be monitored objects; • Implementation rules for root cause and impact analysis. • How PRISMA was developed (methodology, facts, results) • Presentation of the PRISMA system as it now looks and works

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

Observation of asteroid 2013 TV135 supports my idea that a new impaction will come in 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dayong

2014-03-01

Asteroid 2013 TV135 who will impact in 2023 was newly discovered by Ukrainian astronomers in 2013. It supports my idea that a new impaction will come in 20 years. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20131017.html, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2011.DFD.LA.24, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2012.APR.K1.78, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2013.APR.S2.14. The Sun's companion-dark hole, which is made of dark matter seasonal took its dark comets belt, dark matter, dark lives, and the pressed asteroids belt to impact near our earth. These impactions and dark matter's killers caused seasonal extinctions and produced new species. By many dark comets and asteroids impacting, the dark impaction model is a high probability impaction model; the impaction would not change the orbit of the invisible dark hole, so that it could keep accurate periodicity impactions. With the space-time center, the dark hole system is a negative Einstein's model by ``mass-energy coordinate.'' Sun and Dark hole build up the balance system. Through studying the model, the rule of the impaction can be calculated. Avoid Earth Extinction Association.

Environmental impacts of organic and conventional agricultural products--are the differences captured by life cycle assessment?

PubMed

Meier, Matthias S; Stoessel, Franziska; Jungbluth, Niels; Juraske, Ronnie; Schader, Christian; Stolze, Matthias

2015-02-01

Comprehensive assessment tools are needed that reliably describe environmental impacts of different agricultural systems in order to develop sustainable high yielding agricultural production systems with minimal impacts on the environment. Today, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is increasingly used to assess and compare the environmental sustainability of agricultural products from conventional and organic agriculture. However, LCA studies comparing agricultural products from conventional and organic farming systems report a wide variation in the resource efficiency of products from these systems. The studies show that impacts per area farmed land are usually less in organic systems, but related to the quantity produced impacts are often higher. We reviewed 34 comparative LCA studies of organic and conventional agricultural products to analyze whether this result is solely due to the usually lower yields in organic systems or also due to inaccurate modeling within LCA. Comparative LCAs on agricultural products from organic and conventional farming systems often do not adequately differentiate the specific characteristics of the respective farming system in the goal and scope definition and in the inventory analysis. Further, often only a limited number of impact categories are assessed within the impact assessment not allowing for a comprehensive environmental assessment. The most critical points we identified relate to the nitrogen (N) fluxes influencing acidification, eutrophication, and global warming potential, and biodiversity. Usually, N-emissions in LCA inventories of agricultural products are based on model calculations. Modeled N-emissions often do not correspond with the actual amount of N left in the system that may result in potential emissions. Reasons for this may be that N-models are not well adapted to the mode of action of organic fertilizers and that N-emission models often are built on assumptions from conventional agriculture leading to even greater deviances for organic systems between the amount of N calculated by emission models and the actual amount of N available for emissions. Improvements are needed regarding a more precise differentiation between farming systems and regarding the development of N emission models that better represent actual N-fluxes within different systems. We recommend adjusting N- and C-emissions during farmyard manure management and farmyard manure fertilization in plant production to the feed ration provided in the animal production of the respective farming system leading to different N- and C-compositions within the excrement. In the future, more representative background data on organic farming systems (e.g. N content of farmyard manure) should be generated and compiled so as to be available for use within LCA inventories. Finally, we recommend conducting consequential LCA - if possible - when using LCA for policy-making or strategic environmental planning to account for different functions of the analyzed farming systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate themore » importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.« less

A 640 foot per second impact test of a two foot diameter model nuclear reactor containment system without fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puthoff, R. L.

1971-01-01

An impact test was conducted on an 1142 pound 2 foot diameter sphere model. The purpose of this test was to determine the feasibility of containing the fission products of a mobile reactor in an impact. The model simulated the reactor core, energy absorbing gamma shielding, neutron shielding and the containment vessel. It was impacted against an 18,000 pound reinforced concrete block. The model was significantly deformed and the concrete block demolished. No leaks were detected nor cracks observed in the model after impact.

An 810 ft/sec soil impact test of a 2-foot diameter model nuclear reactor containment system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puthoff, R. L.

1972-01-01

A soil impact test was conducted on a 880-pound 2-foot diameter sphere model. The impact area consisted of back filled desert earth and rock. The impact generated a crater 5 feet in diameter by 5 feet deep. It buried itself a total of 15 feet - as measured to the bottom of the model. After impact the containment vessel was pressure checked. No leaks were detected nor cracks observed.

Online Hydrologic Impact Assessment Decision Support System using Internet and Web-GIS Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.; Engel, B. A.; Harbor, J.

2002-05-01

Urban sprawl and the corresponding land use change from lower intensity uses, such as agriculture and forests, to higher intensity uses including high density residential and commercial has various long- and short-term environment impacts on ground water recharge, water pollution, and storm water drainage. A web-based Spatial Decision Support System, SDSS, for Web-based operation of long-term hydrologic impact modeling and analysis was developed. The system combines a hydrologic model, databases, web-GIS capability and HTML user interfaces to create a comprehensive hydrologic analysis system. The hydrologic model estimates daily direct runoff using the NRCS Curve Number technique and annual nonpoint source pollution loading by an event mean concentration approach. This is supported by a rainfall database with over 30 years of daily rainfall for the continental US. A web-GIS interface and a robust Web-based watershed delineation capability were developed to simplify the spatial data preparation task that is often a barrier to hydrologic model operation. The web-GIS supports browsing of map layers including hydrologic soil groups, roads, counties, streams, lakes and railroads, as well as on-line watershed delineation for any geographic point the user selects with a simple mouse click. The watershed delineation results can also be used to generate data for the hydrologic and water quality models available in the DSS. This system is already being used by city and local government planners for hydrologic impact evaluation of land use change from urbanization, and can be found at http://pasture.ecn.purdue.edu/~watergen/hymaps. This system can assist local community, city and watershed planners, and even professionals when they are examining impacts of land use change on water resources. They can estimate the hydrologic impact of possible land use changes using this system with readily available data supported through the Internet. This system provides a cost effective approach to serve potential users who require easy-to-use tools.

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperatures in the Columbia River System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.; Crozier, L.

2014-12-01

The Columbia River system, a drainage basin of 668,000 sq. km that includes the Columbia and Snake River rivers, supports a large population of anadromous, cold-water fishes. 13 species of these fishes are listed under the Endangered Species Act and are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Bioenergetics models for these species have been developed by the federal agencies that operate the Federal Columbia River Power System. These models simulate the impacts on anadromous fishes as they move through the power system both upstream as adults and downstream as juveniles. Water temperature simulations required for input to the bioenergetics models were made for two different segments of the Columbia River system; one being the portions from the Canadian border to Bonneville Dam and the Snake River from Brownlee Dam in Idaho to its confluence and the other, the Salmon River basin in Idaho. Simulations were performed for the period 1928-1998 with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model, RBM, for existing conditions and for a two 2040 climate scenarios, a cool, dry condition (ECHO_g model) and a warm, wet condition (MIROC_3.2 model). Natural flows were simulated with the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC, and modified for Columbia River project operations using HYDSIM, a hydro system regulation model that simulates month-to-month operation of the Pacific Northwest hydropower system.

Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...

A Model to Assess the Behavioral Impacts of Consultative Knowledge Based Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mak, Brenda; Lyytinen, Kalle

1997-01-01

This research model studies the behavioral impacts of consultative knowledge based systems (KBS). A study of graduate students explored to what extent their decisions were affected by user participation in updating the knowledge base; ambiguity of decision setting; routinization of usage; and source credibility of the expertise embedded in the…

Using Modeling and Simulation to Complement Testing for Increased Understanding of Weapon Subassembly Response.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, Michael K.; Davidson, Megan

As part of Sandia’s nuclear deterrence mission, the B61-12 Life Extension Program (LEP) aims to modernize the aging weapon system. Modernization requires requalification and Sandia is using high performance computing to perform advanced computational simulations to better understand, evaluate, and verify weapon system performance in conjunction with limited physical testing. The Nose Bomb Subassembly (NBSA) of the B61-12 is responsible for producing a fuzing signal upon ground impact. The fuzing signal is dependent upon electromechanical impact sensors producing valid electrical fuzing signals at impact. Computer generated models were used to assess the timing between the impact sensor’s response to themore » deceleration of impact and damage to major components and system subassemblies. The modeling and simulation team worked alongside the physical test team to design a large-scale reverse ballistic test to not only assess system performance, but to also validate their computational models. The reverse ballistic test conducted at Sandia’s sled test facility sent a rocket sled with a representative target into a stationary B61-12 (NBSA) to characterize the nose crush and functional response of NBSA components. Data obtained from data recorders and high-speed photometrics were integrated with previously generated computer models in order to refine and validate the model’s ability to reliably simulate real-world effects. Large-scale tests are impractical to conduct for every single impact scenario. By creating reliable computer models, we can perform simulations that identify trends and produce estimates of outcomes over the entire range of required impact conditions. Sandia’s HPCs enable geometric resolution that was unachievable before, allowing for more fidelity and detail, and creating simulations that can provide insight to support evaluation of requirements and performance margins. As computing resources continue to improve, researchers at Sandia are hoping to improve these simulations so they provide increasingly credible analysis of the system response and performance over the full range of conditions.« less

Creating an isotopically similar Earth-Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyatt, Bryant M.; Petz, Jonathan M.; Sumpter, William J.; Turner, Ty R.; Smith, Edward L.; Fain, Baylor G.; Hutyra, Taylor J.; Cook, Scott A.; Gresham, John H.; Hibbs, Michael F.; Goderya, Shaukat N.

2018-04-01

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth-Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth-Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.

Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

2012-12-01

The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. OSSE evaluation and calibration is then performed by repeating these two OSEs with synthetic observations and comparing the resulting observing system impact to determine if it differs from the OSE results. OSSEs are first run to evaluate different airborne sampling strategies with respect to temporal frequency of flights and the horizontal separation of upper-ocean profiles during each flight. They are then run to assess the impact of releasing multiple floats and gliders. Evaluation strategy focuses on error reduction in fields important for hurricane forecasting such as the structure of ocean currents and eddies, upper ocean heat content distribution, and upper-ocean stratification.

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, William B.; Trinh, Huu P.; Reynolds, Michael E.; Sharp, David J.

2011-01-01

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Partition method and experimental validation for impact dynamics of flexible multibody system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. Y.; Liu, Z. Y.; Hong, J. Z.

2018-06-01

The impact problem of a flexible multibody system is a non-smooth, high-transient, and strong-nonlinear dynamic process with variable boundary. How to model the contact/impact process accurately and efficiently is one of the main difficulties in many engineering applications. The numerical approaches being used widely in impact analysis are mainly from two fields: multibody system dynamics (MBS) and computational solid mechanics (CSM). Approaches based on MBS provide a more efficient yet less accurate analysis of the contact/impact problems, while approaches based on CSM are well suited for particularly high accuracy needs, yet require very high computational effort. To bridge the gap between accuracy and efficiency in the dynamic simulation of a flexible multibody system with contacts/impacts, a partition method is presented considering that the contact body is divided into two parts, an impact region and a non-impact region. The impact region is modeled using the finite element method to guarantee the local accuracy, while the non-impact region is modeled using the modal reduction approach to raise the global efficiency. A three-dimensional rod-plate impact experiment is designed and performed to validate the numerical results. The principle for how to partition the contact bodies is proposed: the maximum radius of the impact region can be estimated by an analytical method, and the modal truncation orders of the non-impact region can be estimated by the highest frequency of the signal measured. The simulation results using the presented method are in good agreement with the experimental results. It shows that this method is an effective formulation considering both accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, a more complicated multibody impact problem of a crank slider mechanism is investigated to strengthen this conclusion.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

A Method for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Air Traffic Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Bonesteel, Charles

1998-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety and operational impacts of emerging air traffic technologies. The approach integrates traditional reliability models of the system infrastructure with models that analyze the environment within which the system operates, and models of how the system responds to different scenarios. Products of the analysis include safety measures such as predicted incident rates, predicted accident statistics, and false alarm rates; and operational availability data. The report demonstrates the methodology with an analysis of the operation of the Center-TRACON Automation System at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Modeling and Positioning of a PZT Precision Drive System.

PubMed

Liu, Che; Guo, Yanling

2017-11-08

The fact that piezoelectric ceramic transducer (PZT) precision drive systems in 3D printing are faced with nonlinear problems with respect to positioning, such as hysteresis and creep, has had an extremely negative impact on the precision of laser focusing systems. To eliminate the impact of PZT nonlinearity during precision drive movement, mathematical modeling and theoretical analyses of each module comprising the system were carried out in this study, a micro-displacement measurement circuit based on Position Sensitive Detector (PSD) is constructed, followed by the establishment of system closed-loop control and creep control models. An XL-80 laser interferometer (Renishaw, Wotton-under-Edge, UK) was used to measure the performance of the precision drive system, showing that system modeling and control algorithms were correct, with the requirements for precision positioning of the drive system satisfied.

Modeling and Positioning of a PZT Precision Drive System

PubMed Central

Liu, Che; Guo, Yanling

2017-01-01

The fact that piezoelectric ceramic transducer (PZT) precision drive systems in 3D printing are faced with nonlinear problems with respect to positioning, such as hysteresis and creep, has had an extremely negative impact on the precision of laser focusing systems. To eliminate the impact of PZT nonlinearity during precision drive movement, mathematical modeling and theoretical analyses of each module comprising the system were carried out in this study, a micro-displacement measurement circuit based on Position Sensitive Detector (PSD) is constructed, followed by the establishment of system closed-loop control and creep control models. An XL-80 laser interferometer (Renishaw, Wotton-under-Edge, UK) was used to measure the performance of the precision drive system, showing that system modeling and control algorithms were correct, with the requirements for precision positioning of the drive system satisfied. PMID:29117140

Modeling, Control and Simulation of Three-Dimensional Robotic Systems with Applications to Biped Locomotion.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yuan-Fang

A three-dimensional, five link biped system is established. Newton-Euler state space formulation is employed to derive the equations of the system. The constraint forces involved in the equations can be eliminated by projection onto a smaller state space system for deriving advanced control laws. A model-referenced adaptive control scheme is developed to control the system. Digital computer simulations of point to point movement are carried out to show that the model-referenced adaptive control increases the dynamic range and speeds up the response of the system in comparison with linear and nonlinear feedback control. Further, the implementation of the controller is simpler. Impact effects of biped contact with the environment are modeled and studied. The instant velocity change at the moment of impact is derived as a function of the biped state and contact speed. The effects of impact on the state, as well as constraints are studied in biped landing on heels and toes simultaneously or on toes first. Rate and nonlinear position feedback are employed for stability of the biped after the impact. The complex structure of the foot is properly modeled. A spring and dashpot pair is suggested to represent the action of plantar fascia during the impact. This action prevents the arch of the foot from collapsing. A mathematical model of the skeletal muscle is discussed. A direct relationship between the stimulus rate and the active state is established. A piecewise linear relation between the length of the contractile element and the isometric force is considered. Hill's characteristic equation is maintained for determining the actual output force during different shortening velocities. A physical threshold model is proposed for recruitment which encompasses the size principle, its manifestations and exceptions to the size principle. Finally the role of spindle feedback in stability of the model is demonstrated by study of a pair of muscles.

Prevention of Spacecraft Anomalies: The Role of Space Climate and Space Weather Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure to support the quality of life on Earth. Mission requirements along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. This chapter describes approaches to accommodate space climate and space weather impacts on systems and notes areas where gaps in model development limit our ability to prevent spacecraft anomalies.

Development of the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of nuclear power plant severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naitoh, Masanori; Ujita, Hiroshi; Nagumo, Hiroichi

1997-07-01

The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) has initiated a long-term program to develop the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of hypothetical severe accidents in nuclear power plants. IMPACT employs advanced methods of physical modeling and numerical computation, and can simulate a wide spectrum of senarios ranging from normal operation to hypothetical, beyond-design-basis-accident events. Designed as a large-scale system of interconnected, hierarchical modules, IMPACT`s distinguishing features include mechanistic models based on first principles and high speed simulation on parallel processing computers. The present plan is a ten-year program starting from 1993, consisting of the initial one-year of preparatory work followed bymore » three technical phases: Phase-1 for development of a prototype system; Phase-2 for completion of the simulation system, incorporating new achievements from basic studies; and Phase-3 for refinement through extensive verification and validation against test results and available real plant data.« less

Potential of pedestrian protection systems--a parameter study using finite element models of pedestrian dummy and generic passenger vehicles.

PubMed

Fredriksson, Rikard; Shin, Jaeho; Untaroiu, Costin D

2011-08-01

To study the potential of active, passive, and integrated (combined active and passive) safety systems in reducing pedestrian upper body loading in typical impact configurations. Finite element simulations using models of generic sedan car fronts and the Polar II pedestrian dummy were performed for 3 impact configurations at 2 impact speeds. Chest contact force, head injury criterion (HIC(15)), head angular acceleration, and the cumulative strain damage measure (CSDM(0.25)) were employed as injury parameters. Further, 3 countermeasures were modeled: an active autonomous braking system, a passive deployable countermeasure, and an integrated system combining the active and passive systems. The auto-brake system was modeled by reducing impact speed by 10 km/h (equivalent to ideal full braking over 0.3 s) and introducing a pitch of 1 degree and in-crash deceleration of 1 g. The deployable system consisted of a deployable hood, lifting 100 mm in the rear, and a lower windshield air bag. All 3 countermeasures showed benefit in a majority of impact configurations in terms of injury prevention. The auto-brake system reduced chest force in a majority of the configurations and decreased HIC(15), head angular acceleration, and CSDM in all configurations. Averaging all impact configurations, the auto-brake system showed reductions of injury predictors from 20 percent (chest force) to 82 percent (HIC). The passive deployable countermeasure reduced chest force and HIC(15) in a majority of configurations and head angular acceleration and CSDM in all configurations, although the CSDM decrease in 2 configurations was minimal. On average a reduction from 20 percent (CSDM) to 58 percent (HIC) was recorded in the passive deployable countermeasures. Finally, the integrated system evaluated in this study reduced all injury assessment parameters in all configurations compared to the reference situations. The average reductions achieved by the integrated system ranged from 56 percent (CSDM) to 85 percent (HIC). Both the active (autonomous braking) and passive deployable system studied had a potential to decrease pedestrian upper body loading. An integrated pedestrian safety system combining the active and passive systems increased the potential of the individual systems in reducing pedestrian head and chest loading.

The CICT Earth Science Systems Analysis Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pell, Barney; Coughlan, Joe; Biegel, Bryan; Stevens, Ken; Hansson, Othar; Hayes, Jordan

2004-01-01

Contents include the following: Computing Information and Communications Technology (CICT) Systems Analysis. Our modeling approach: a 3-part schematic investment model of technology change, impact assessment and prioritization. A whirlwind tour of our model. Lessons learned.

The Economic Impact of the Community College System on the State of Florida.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weitzman, Scott M.

In an effort to assess the economic impact of the Florida Community College System (FCCS) on the state, two theoretical models were utilized. The first model determines the FCCS's total expenditures in supplies and services, and then applies to these figures a mathematical multiplier to account for the additional economic business generated by…

The Strategic Impact Model: An Integrative Approach to Performance Improvement and Instructional Systems Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenda, Michael; Pershing, James A.

2004-01-01

Training in business settings and instruction in academic settings have never taken place in a vacuum, but in earlier times many instructional technology professionals behaved as though they did. Models of instructional systems design (ISD) placed training and instruction at the center of the universe ignoring the impact of the external…

Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States: A Multi-Model Comparison

EPA Science Inventory

This paper compares the climate change impacts on U.S. electricity demand and supply from three models: the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, and GCAM. Rising temperatures cause an appreciable net increase in electricity demand....

Chemical reaction path modeling of hydrothermal processes on Mars: Preliminary results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Ridley, W. Ian

1992-01-01

Hydrothermal processes are thought to have had significant roles in the development of surficial mineralogies and morphological features on Mars. For example, a significant proportion of the Martian soil could consist of the erosional products of hydrothermally altered impact melt sheets. In this model, impact-driven, vapor-dominated hydrothermal systems hydrothermally altered the surrounding rocks and transported volatiles such as S and Cl to the surface. Further support for impact-driven hydrothermal alteration on Mars was provided by studies of the Ries crater, Germany, where suevite deposits were extensively altered to montmorillonite clays by inferred low-temperature (100-130 C) hydrothermal fluids. It was also suggested that surface outflow from both impact-driven and volcano-driven hydrothermal systems could generate the valley networks, thereby eliminating the need for an early warm wet climate. We use computer-driven chemical reaction path calculation to model chemical processes which were likely associated with postulated Martian hydrothermal systems.

Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Lowe, Rachel; Diggle, Peter J; Rodó, Xavier

2016-10-01

After several decades of intensive research, steady improvements in understanding and modeling the climate system have led to the development of the first generation of operational health early warning systems in the era of climate services. These schemes are based on collaborations across scientific disciplines, bringing together real-time climate and health data collection, state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions, epidemiological impact models based on historical data, and an understanding of end user and stakeholder needs. In this review, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of this complex, multidisciplinary collaboration, with a focus on the factors limiting seasonal forecasting as a source of predictability for climate impact models. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Measured and estimated performance of a fleet of shaded photovoltaic systems with string and module-level inverters

DOE PAGES

MacAlpine, Sara; Deline, Chris; Dobos, Aron

2017-03-16

Shade obstructions can significantly impact the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Although there are many models for partially shaded PV arrays, there is a lack of information available regarding their accuracy and uncertainty when compared with actual field performance. This work assesses the recorded performance of 46 residential PV systems, equipped with either string-level or module-level inverters, under a variety of shading conditions. We compare their energy production data to annual PV performance predictions, with a focus on the practical models developed here for National Renewable Energy Laboratory's system advisor model software. This includes assessment of shade extent on eachmore » PV system by using traditional onsite surveys and newer 3D obstruction modelling. The electrical impact of shade is modelled by either a nonlinear performance model or assumption of linear impact with shade extent, depending on the inverter type. When applied to the fleet of residential PV systems, performance is predicted with median annual bias errors of 2.5% or less, for systems with up to 20% estimated shading loss. The partial shade models are not found to add appreciable uncertainty to annual predictions of energy production for this fleet of systems but do introduce a monthly root-mean-square error of approximately 4%-9% due to seasonal effects. Here the use of a detailed 3D model results in similar or improved accuracy over site survey methods, indicating that, with proper description of shade obstructions, modelling of partially shaded PV arrays can be done completely remotely, potentially saving time and cost.« less

Chaotic sources of noise in machine acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, F. C., Prof.; Broschart, Dipl.-Ing. T.

1994-05-01

In this paper a model is posited for deterministic, random-like noise in machines with sliding rigid parts impacting linear continuous machine structures. Such problems occur in gear transmission systems. A mathematical model is proposed to explain the random-like structure-borne and air-borne noise from such systems when the input is a periodic deterministic excitation of the quasi-rigid impacting parts. An experimental study is presented which supports the model. A thin circular plate is impacted by a chaotically vibrating mass excited by a sinusoidal moving base. The results suggest that the plate vibrations might be predicted by replacing the chaotic vibrating mass with a probabilistic forcing function. Prechaotic vibrations of the impacting mass show classical period doubling phenomena.

Optimal Transmission Line Switching under Geomagnetic Disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Mowen; Nagarajan, Harsha; Yamangil, Emre

Recently, there have been increasing concerns about how geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) impact electrical power systems. Geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, induce hot spot heating and increase reactive power losses. These effects can potentially cause catastrophic damage to transformers and severely impact the ability of a power system to deliver power. To address this problem, we develop a model of GIC impacts to power systems that includes 1) GIC thermal capacity of transformers as a function of normal Alternating Current (AC) and 2) reactive power losses as a function of GIC. We also use this model to derive an optimizationmore » problem that protects power systems from GIC impacts through line switching, generator dispatch, and load shedding. We then employ state-of-the-art convex relaxations of AC power flow equations to lower bound the objective. We demonstrate the approach on a modified RTS96 system and UIUC 150-bus system and show that line switching is an effective means to mitigate GIC impacts. We also provide a sensitivity analysis of decisions with respect to GMD direction.« less

Optimal Transmission Line Switching under Geomagnetic Disturbances

DOE PAGES

Lu, Mowen; Nagarajan, Harsha; Yamangil, Emre; ...

2017-10-11

Recently, there have been increasing concerns about how geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) impact electrical power systems. Geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, induce hot spot heating and increase reactive power losses. These effects can potentially cause catastrophic damage to transformers and severely impact the ability of a power system to deliver power. To address this problem, we develop a model of GIC impacts to power systems that includes 1) GIC thermal capacity of transformers as a function of normal Alternating Current (AC) and 2) reactive power losses as a function of GIC. We also use this model to derive an optimizationmore » problem that protects power systems from GIC impacts through line switching, generator dispatch, and load shedding. We then employ state-of-the-art convex relaxations of AC power flow equations to lower bound the objective. We demonstrate the approach on a modified RTS96 system and UIUC 150-bus system and show that line switching is an effective means to mitigate GIC impacts. We also provide a sensitivity analysis of decisions with respect to GMD direction.« less

A 1055 ft/sec impact test of a two foot diameter model nuclear reactor containment system without fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puthoff, R. L.

1972-01-01

A study to determine the feasibility of containing the fission products of a mobile reactor in the event of an impact is presented. The model simulated the reactor core, energy absorbing gamma shielding, neutron shielding and the containment vessel. It was impacted against an 18,000 pound reinforced concrete block at 1055 ft/sec. The model was significantly deformed and the concrete block demolished. No leaks were detected nor were any cracks observed in the model after impact.

Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems.

PubMed

Donatelli, M; Magarey, R D; Bregaglio, S; Willocquet, L; Whish, J P M; Savary, S

2017-07-01

The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Yield loss data collected in various current environments may no longer represent a adequate reference to develop tactical, decision-oriented, models for plant diseases and pests and their impacts, because of the ongoing changes in climate patterns. Process-based agricultural simulation modelling, on the other hand, appears to represent a viable methodology to estimate the impacts of these potential effects. A new generation of tools based on state-of-the-art knowledge and technologies is needed to allow systems analysis including key processes and their dynamics over appropriate suitable range of environmental variables. This paper offers a brief overview of the current state of development in coupling pest and disease models to crop models, and discusses technical and scientific challenges. We propose a five-stage roadmap to improve the simulation of the impacts caused by plant diseases and pests; i) improve the quality and availability of data for model inputs; ii) improve the quality and availability of data for model evaluation; iii) improve the integration with crop models; iv) improve the processes for model evaluation; and v) develop a community of plant pest and disease modelers.

A generalized model for stability of trees under impact conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dattola, Giuseppe; Crosta, Giovanni; Castellanza, Riccardo; di Prisco, Claudio; Canepa, Davide

2016-04-01

Stability of trees to external actions involve the combined effects of stem and tree root systems. A block impacting on the stem or an applied force pulling the stem can cause a tree instability involving stem bending or failure and tree root rotation. So different contributions are involved in the stability of the system. The rockfalls are common natural phenomena that can be unpredictable in terms of frequency and magnitude characteristics, and this makes difficult the estimate of potential hazard and risk for human lives and activities. In mountain areas a natural form of protection from rockfalls is provided by forest growing. The difficulties in the assessment of the real capability of this natural barrier by means of models is an open problem. Nevertheless, a large amount of experimental data are now available which provides support for the development of advanced theoretical framework and corresponding models. The aim of this contribution consists in presenting a model developed to predict the behavior of trees during a block impact. This model describes the tree stem by means of a linear elastic beam system consisting of two beams connected in series and with an equivalent geometry. The tree root system is described via an equivalent foundation, whose behavior is modelled through an elasto-plastic macro-element model. In order to calibrate the model parameters, simulations reproducing a series of winching tests, are performed. These numerical simulations confirm the capability of the model to predict the mechanical behavior of the stem-root system in terms of displacement vs force curves. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of a boulder with a tree stem are carried out. These simulations, done under dynamic regime and with the model parameters obtained from the previous set of simulations, confirm the capability of the model to reproduce the effects on the stem-roots system generated by impulsive loads.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Training Requirements Analysis Model (TRAMOD).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czuchry, Andrew J.; And Others

The training requirements analysis model (TRAMOD) described in this report represents an important portion of the larger effort called the Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS) Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Study. TRAMOD is the second of three models that comprise an LCC impact modeling system for use in the early stages of system development. As…

Eco-efficiency model for evaluating feedlot rations in the Great Plains, United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental impacts attributable to beef feedlot production provide an opportunity for economically-linked environmental efficiency optimization. An adaptable eco-efficiency model was developed to assess the impacts of dietary rations. The hybridized model utilized California Net Energy System m...

Model-Based Fault Diagnosis: Performing Root Cause and Impact Analyses in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Figueroa, Jorge F.; Walker, Mark G.; Kapadia, Ravi; Morris, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Generic, object-oriented fault models, built according to causal-directed graph theory, have been integrated into an overall software architecture dedicated to monitoring and predicting the health of mission- critical systems. Processing over the generic fault models is triggered by event detection logic that is defined according to the specific functional requirements of the system and its components. Once triggered, the fault models provide an automated way for performing both upstream root cause analysis (RCA), and for predicting downstream effects or impact analysis. The methodology has been applied to integrated system health management (ISHM) implementations at NASA SSC's Rocket Engine Test Stands (RETS).

Quantifying human impact on hydrological drought using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Chaney, Nathaniel; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Milly, Chris

2017-04-01

Predicting the human impact on the present and future hydrological cycle remains a significant scientific challenge. Anthropogenic impact includes water management practices like diverting water for irrigation, abstraction of groundwater, and reservoirs. Hydrological extremes, in particular, are heavily affected by water management practices, due to the existing stress on the system during droughts and floods. Therefore, to prepare adaptation plans for hydrological extremes in the future, it is essential to account for water management and other human influences in Earth System Models. In this study we have implemented water management practices in the state-of-the-art GFDL land model, which includes terrestrial water, energy, and carbon balances. Both irrigation practices and reservoirs have been added in the land surface model component of the model. Irrigation amounts are determined from the soil water balance, the evaporative demand of the vegetation and fractional coverage of croplands. The resulting water demand is fulfilled by abstractions from surface water and groundwater. Reservoir outflow is dynamically coupled to the downstream water demand and available reservoir storage. Retrospective model simulations over the contiguous United States indicate a strong human influence on hydrological drought. A water management attribution analysis shows a significant impact on the water availability, mostly in the Midwest of the United States and California. Implementation of reservoirs alters the flow regime, thereby decreasing the short-term drought impact, however, in the case of multi-year drought, impacts are delayed due to the dependency on the reservoir outflow. Irrigation, on the other hand, decreases the water availability in rivers due to increased evapotranspiration leading to a higher drought impact. The average increase in evapotranspiration amounted up to 2 mm/day for cropland areas in California and Texas. Overall, the results show the importance of including water management in global scale models. This new modelling framework can be used to understand how humans will impact future water availability, water scarcity, and drought. Next steps will include coupled model simulations to investigate the human impact on feedbacks in land-atmosphere interactions.

An integrated draft gear model with the consideration of wagon body structural characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Gao; Liangliang, Yang; Weihua, Ma; Min, Zhang; Shihui, Luo

2018-03-01

With the increase of railway wagon axle load and the growth of marshalling quantity, the problem caused by impact and vibration of vehicles is increasingly serious, which leads to the damage of vehicle structures and the components. In order to improve the reliability of longitudinal connection model for vehicle impact tests, a new railway wagon longitudinal connection model was developed to simulate and analyse vehicle impact tests. The new model is based on characteristics of longitudinal force transmission for vehicles and parts. In this model, carbodies and bogies were simplified to a particle system that can vibrate in the longitudinal direction, which corresponded to a stiffness-damping vibration system. The model consists of three sub-models, that is, coupler and draft gear sub-model, centre plate sub-model and carbody structure sub-model. Compared with conventional draft gear models, the new model was proposed with geometrical and mechanical relations of friction draft gears considered and with behaviours of sticking, sliding and impact between centre plate and centre bowl added. Besides, virtual springs between discrete carbodies were built to describe the structural deformation of carbody. A computation program for longitudinal dynamics based on vehicle impact tests was accomplished to simulate. Comparisons and analyses regarding the train dynamics outputs and vehicle impact tests were conducted. Simulation results indicate that the new wagon longitudinal connection model can provide a practical application environment for wagons, and the outputs of vehicle impact tests agree with those of field tests. The new model can also be used to study on longitudinal vibrations of different vehicles, of carbody and bogie, and of carbody itself.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Holistic energy system modeling combining multi-objective optimization and life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauner, Sebastian; Budzinski, Maik

2017-12-01

Making the global energy system more sustainable has emerged as a major societal concern and policy objective. This transition comes with various challenges and opportunities for a sustainable evolution affecting most of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. We therefore propose broadening the current metrics for sustainability in the energy system modeling field by using industrial ecology techniques to account for a conclusive set of indicators. This is pursued by including a life cycle based sustainability assessment into an energy system model considering all relevant products and processes of the global supply chain. We identify three pronounced features: (i) the low-hanging fruit of impact mitigation requiring manageable economic effort; (ii) embodied emissions of renewables cause increasing spatial redistribution of impact from direct emissions, the place of burning fuel, to indirect emissions, the location of the energy infrastructure production; (iii) certain impact categories, in which more overall sustainable systems perform worse than the cost minimal system, require a closer look. In essence, this study makes the case for future energy system modeling to include the increasingly important global supply chain and broaden the metrics of sustainability further than cost and climate change relevant emissions.

Nurses' Perceptions of the Impact of Work Systems and Technology on Patient Safety during the Medication Administration Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher Gordon, Mary

2012-01-01

This dissertation examines nurses' perceptions of the impacts of systems and technology utilized during the medication administration process on patient safety and the culture of medication error reporting. This exploratory research study was grounded in a model of patient safety based on Patricia Benner's Novice to Expert Skill Acquisition model,…

Observation Impacts for Longer Forecast Lead-Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, R.; Gelaro, R.; Todling, R.

2013-12-01

Observation impact on forecasts evaluated using adjoint-based techniques (e.g. Langland and Baker, 2004) are limited by the validity of the assumptions underlying the forecasting model adjoint. Most applications of this approach have focused on deriving observation impacts on short-range forecasts (e.g. 24-hour) in part to stay well within linearization assumptions. The most widely used measure of observation impact relies on the availability of the analysis for verifying the forecasts. As pointed out by Gelaro et al. (2007), and more recently by Todling (2013), this introduces undesirable correlations in the measure that are likely to affect the resulting assessment of the observing system. Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012) introduced a technique that, in principle, allows extending the validity of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models to longer lead-times, thereby reducing the correlations in the measures used for observation impact assessments. The methodology provides the means to better represent linearized models by making use of Gaussian quadrature relations to handle various underlying non-linear model trajectories. The formulation is exact for particular bi-linear dynamics; it corresponds to an approximation for general-type nonlinearities and must be tested for large atmospheric models. The present work investigates the approach of Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012)in the context of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The goal is to calculate observation impacts in the GEOS-5 ADAS for forecast lead-times of at least 48 hours in order to reduce the potential for undesirable correlations that occur at shorter forecast lead times. References [1]Langland, R. H., and N. L. Baker, 2004: Estimation of observation impact using the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation adjoint system. Tellus, 56A, 189-201. [2] Gelaro, R., Y. Zhu, and R. M. Errico, 2007: Examination of various-order adjoint-based approximations of observation impact. Meteoroloische Zeitschrift, 16, 685-692. [3]Stappers, R. J. J., and J. Barkmeijer, 2012: Optimal linearization trajectories for tangent linear models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 170-184. [4] Todling, R. 2013: Comparing two approaches for assessing observation impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1484-1505.

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

Impact Testing on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Flat Panels with Ice Projectiles for the Space Shuttle Return to Flight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Revilock, Duane M.; Pereira, Michael J.; Lyle, Karen H.

2009-01-01

Following the tragedy of the Orbiter Columbia (STS-107) on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the space shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) along with ice and foam debris materials, which could shed on ascent and impact the orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.) to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: Level 1--fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic constitutive model properties of materials of interest, Level 2--subcomponent impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and Level 3--full-scale orbiter leading-edge impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This report discusses the Level 2 test program conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Ballistic Impact Laboratory with ice projectile impact tests on flat RCC panels, and presents the data observed. The Level 2 testing consisted of 54 impact tests in the NASA GRC Ballistic Impact Laboratory on 6- by 6-in. and 6- by 12-in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated three types of debris projectiles: Single-crystal, polycrystal, and "soft" ice. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile and validated the use of the ice and RCC models for use in LS-DYNA.

Impact Testing on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Flat Panels With BX-265 and PDL-1034 External Tank Foam for the Space Shuttle Return to Flight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Revilock, Duane M.; Pereira, Michael J.; Lyle, Karen H.

2009-01-01

Following the tragedy of the Orbiter Columbia (STS-107) on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the space shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) along with ice and foam debris materials, which could shed on ascent and impact the orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.) to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: Level 1-fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic constitutive model properties of materials of interest, Level 2-subcomponent impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and Level 3-full-scale orbiter leading-edge impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This report discusses the Level 2 test program conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Ballistic Impact Laboratory with external tank foam impact tests on flat RCC panels, and presents the data observed. The Level 2 testing consisted of 54 impact tests in the NASA GRC Ballistic Impact Laboratory on 6- by 6-in. and 6- by 12-in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated two types of debris projectiles: BX-265 and PDL-1034 external tank foam. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile and validated the use of the foam and RCC models for use in LS-DYNA.

Urbanization Impacts on Flooding in the Kansas River Basin and Evaluation of Wetlands as a Mitigation Measure

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on flooding in the Kansas River Basin. It also studies the impacts of wetlands on flood reduction. The study presents Hydrologic Engineering Centers-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) based runoff modeling and River A...

GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

Mouse Models for Studying Oral Cancer: Impact in the Era of Cancer Immunotherapy.

PubMed

Luo, J J; Young, C D; Zhou, H M; Wang, X J

2018-04-01

Model systems for oral cancer research have progressed from tumor epithelial cell cultures to in vivo systems that mimic oral cancer genetics, pathological characteristics, and tumor-stroma interactions of oral cancer patients. In the era of cancer immunotherapy, it is imperative to use model systems to test oral cancer prevention and therapeutic interventions in the presence of an immune system and to discover mechanisms of stromal contributions to oral cancer carcinogenesis. Here, we review in vivo mouse model systems commonly used for studying oral cancer and discuss the impact these models are having in advancing basic mechanisms, chemoprevention, and therapeutic intervention of oral cancer while highlighting recent discoveries concerning the role of immune cells in oral cancer. Improvements to in vivo model systems that highly recapitulate human oral cancer hold the key to identifying features of oral cancer initiation, progression, and invasion as well as molecular and cellular targets for prevention, therapeutic response, and immunotherapy development.

IS Success Model in E-Learning Context Based on Students' Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeze, Ronald D.; Alshare, Khaled A.; Lane, Peggy L.; Wen, H. Joseph

2010-01-01

This study utilized the Information Systems Success (ISS) model in examining e-learning systems success. The study was built on the premise that system quality (SQ) and information quality (IQ) influence system use and user satisfaction, which in turn impact system success. A structural equation model (SEM), using LISREL, was used to test the…

Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Subcomponent Flat Plate Impact Testing for Space Shuttle Orbiter Return to Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Brand, Jeremy H.; Pereira, J. Michael; Revilock, Duane M.

2007-01-01

Following the tragedy of the Space Shuttle Columbia on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the Space Shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) and various debris materials which could potentially shed on ascent and impact the Orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS DYNA to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the Orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic material model properties of materials of interest, sub-component impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and full-scale impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This paper discusses the second level subcomponent test program in detail and its application to the LS DYNA model validation process. The level two testing consisted of over one hundred impact tests in the NASA Glenn Research Center Ballistic Impact Lab on 6 by 6 in. and 6 by 12 in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated three types of debris projectiles: BX 265 External Tank foam, ice, and PDL 1034 External Tank foam. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile. The information obtained from this testing validated the LS DYNA damage prediction models and provided a certain level of confidence to begin performing analysis for full-size RCC test articles for returning NASA to flight with STS 114 and beyond.

Simulating the impact of glaciations on continental groundwater flow systems: 2. Model application to the Wisconsinian glaciation over the Canadian landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemieux, J.-M.; Sudicky, E. A.; Peltier, W. R.; Tarasov, L.

2008-09-01

A 3-D groundwater flow and brine transport numerical model of the entire Canadian landscape up to a depth of 10 km is constructed in order to capture the impacts of the Wisconsinian glaciation on the continental groundwater flow system. The numerical development of the model is presented in the companion paper of Lemieux et al. (2008b). Although the scale of the model prevents the use of a detailed geological model, commonly occurring geological materials that exhibit relatively consistent hydrogeological properties over the continent justify the simplifications while still allowing the capture of large-scale flow system trends. The model includes key processes pertaining to coupled groundwater flow and glaciation modeling, such a density-dependent (i.e., brine) flow, hydromechanical loading, subglacial infiltration, isostasy, and permafrost development. The surface boundary conditions are specified with the results of a glacial system model. The significant impact of the ice sheet on groundwater flow is evident by increases in the hydraulic head values below the ice sheet by as much as 3000 m down to a depth of 1.5 km into the subsurface. Results also indicate that the groundwater flow system after glaciation did not fully revert to its initial condition and that it is still recovering from the glaciation perturbation. This suggests that the current groundwater flow system cannot be interpreted solely on the basis of present-day boundary conditions and it is likely that several thousands of years of additional equilibration time will be necessary for the system to reach a new quasi-steady state. Finally, we find permafrost to have a large impact on the rate of dissipation of high hydraulic heads that build at depth and capturing its accurate distribution is important to explain the current hydraulic head distribution across the Canadian landscape.

Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

Photogrammetric Measurements of CEV Airbag Landing Attenuation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrows, Danny A.; Burner, Alpheus W.; Berry, Felecia C.; Dismond, Harriett R.; Cate, Kenneth H.

2008-01-01

High-speed photogrammetric measurements are being used to assess the impact dynamics of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) for ground landing contingency upon return to earth. Test articles representative of the Orion capsule are dropped at the NASA Langley Landing and Impact Research (LandIR) Facility onto a sand/clay mixture representative of a dry lakebed from elevations as high as 62 feet (18.9 meters). Two different types of test articles have been evaluated: (1) half-scale metal shell models utilized to establish baseline impact dynamics and soil characterization, and (2) geometric full-scale drop models with shock-absorbing airbags which are being evaluated for their ability to cushion the impact of the Orion CEV with the earth s surface. This paper describes the application of the photogrammetric measurement technique and provides drop model trajectory and impact data that indicate the performance of the photogrammetric measurement system.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

2017-12-01

Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application.

PubMed

Hanandeh, Ali El; El-Zein, Abbas

2010-05-01

This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solitary Wave in One-dimensional Buckyball System at Nanoscale

PubMed Central

Xu, Jun; Zheng, Bowen; Liu, Yilun

2016-01-01

We have studied the stress wave propagation in one-dimensional (1-D) nanoscopic buckyball (C60) system by molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and quantitative modeling. Simulation results have shown that solitary waves are generated and propagating in the buckyball system through impacting one buckyball at one end of the buckyball chain. We have found the solitary wave behaviors are closely dependent on the initial temperature and impacting speed of the buckyball chain. There are almost no dispersion and dissipation of the solitary waves (stationary solitary wave) for relatively low temperature and high impacting speed. While for relatively high temperature and low impacting speed the profile of the solitary waves is highly distorted and dissipated after propagating several tens of buckyballs. A phase diagram is proposed to describe the effect of the temperature and impacting speed on the solitary wave behaviors in buckyball system. In order to quantitatively describe the wave behavior in buckyball system, a simple nonlinear-spring model is established, which can describe the MD simulation results at low temperature very well. The results presented in this work may lay a solid step towards the further understanding and manipulation of stress wave propagation and impact energy mitigation at nanoscale. PMID:26891624

Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.

2014-05-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact onmore » national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.« less

Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.

PubMed

Jin, L; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Sinha, R; Futter, M N; Butterfield, D; Caesar, J; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.

International Space Station (ISS) Meteoroid/Orbital Debris Shielding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christiansen, Eric L.

1999-01-01

Design practices to provide protection for International Space Station (ISS) crew and critical equipment from meteoroid and orbital debris (M/OD) Impacts have been developed. Damage modes and failure criteria are defined for each spacecraft system. Hypervolocity Impact -1 - and analyses are used to develop ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for each exposed spacecraft system. BLEs define Impact particle sizes that result in threshold failure of a particular spacecraft system as a function of Impact velocity, angles and particle density. The BUMPER computer code Is used to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) that falls the spacecraft shielding based on NASA standard meteoroid/debris models, a spacecraft geometry model, and the BLEs. BUMPER results are used to verify spacecraft shielding requirements Low-weight, high-performance shielding alternatives have been developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology Facility (HITF) to meet spacecraft protection requirements.

Ballistic Performance of Porous-Ceramic, Thermal Protection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Joshua; Bohl, William; Christiansen, Eric; Davis, B. Alan; Foreman, Cory

2011-06-01

Porous-ceramic, thermal protection systems are used heavily in current reentry vehicles like the Orbiter, and they are currently being proposed for the next generation of US manned spacecraft, Orion. These systems insulate reentry critical components of a spacecraft against the intense thermal environments of atmospheric reentry. Additionally, these materials are also highly exposed to space environment hazards like solid particle impacts. This paper discusses impact testing up to 9.65 km/s on one of these systems. The materials considered are 8 lb/ft3 alumina-fiber-enhanced-thermal-barrier (AETB8) tiles coated with a toughened-unipiece-fibrous-insulation/reaction-cured-glass layer (TUFI/RCG). A semi-empirical, first principals impact model that describes projectile dispersion is described that provides excellent agreement with observations over a broad range of impact velocities, obliquities and projectile materials. A model extension to look at the implications of greater than 10 GPa equation of state measurements is also discussed. Predicted penetration probabilities for a vehicle visiting the International Space Station is 60% lower for orbital debris and 95% lower for meteoroids with this model compared to an energy scaled approach.

Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

2013-07-01

This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

Constraints on the pre-impact orbits of Theia, the Borealis impactor and the progenitor of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Alan P.; Gabriel, Travis; Asphaug, Erik

2016-10-01

Many aspects of the current dynamical and compositional configuration of the inner Solar System, such as Mercury's large core mass fraction, the angular momentum of the Earth-Moon system, and the reorientation of Mars, have been achieved through the effects of giant impacts. It is possible to relate the impact conditions, especially the velocity, to the pre-impact orbits. This in turn provides insight into the source regions for the terrestrial planets for comparison with N-body accretion models. For example, in the case of the canonical model for the formation of the Moon, previous studies have investigated regions in which the Mars-size impactor, Theia, could be quasi-stable for millions of years. We can however obtain constraints on the orbit of an impactor immediately prior to collision simply by knowing the impact velocity. We consider the canonical Moon formation model, as well as the models of Cuk & Stewart (2012), Canup (2012) and Reufer et al. (2012), to derive from each model its constraints on the pre-impact orbit of Theia. We also consider Mars, and provide constraints on the pre-impact orbit of the impactor suggested to have formed the Borealis basin, and Mercury, namely the Benz et al. (2007) scenario for the formation of Mercury. We discuss the implication of these pre-impact orbits for the origin of the bodies and their compositions.

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review.

PubMed

Jacobson, Carol R

2011-06-01

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Starting Conditions for Hydrothermal Systems Underneath Martian Craters: Hydrocode Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierazzo, E.; Artemieva, N. A.; Ivanov, B. A.

2004-01-01

Mars is the most Earth-like of the Solar System s planets, and the first place to look for any sign of present or past extraterrestrial life. Its surface shows many features indicative of the presence of surface and sub-surface water, while impact cratering and volcanism have provided temporary and local surface heat sources throughout Mars geologic history. Impact craters are widely used ubiquitous indicators for the presence of sub-surface water or ice on Mars. In particular, the presence of significant amounts of ground ice or water would cause impact-induced hydrothermal alteration at Martian impact sites. The realization that hydrothermal systems are possible sites for the origin and early evolution of life on Earth has given rise to the hypothesis that hydrothermal systems may have had the same role on Mars. Rough estimates of the heat generated in impact events have been based on scaling relations, or thermal data based on terrestrial impacts on crystalline basements. Preliminary studies also suggest that melt sheets and target uplift are equally important heat sources for the development of a hydrothermal system, while its lifetime depends on the volume and cooling rate of the heat source, as well as the permeability of the host rocks. We present initial results of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulations of impacts on Mars aimed at constraining the initial conditions for modeling the onset and evolution of a hydrothermal system on the red planet. Simulations of the early stages of impact cratering provide an estimate of the amount of shock melting and the pressure-temperature distribution in the target caused by various impacts on the Martian surface. Modeling of the late stage of crater collapse is necessary to characterize the final thermal state of the target, including crater uplift, and distribution of the heated target material (including the melt pool) and hot ejecta around the crater.

Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) Water Temperature Models Developed for the Missouri River Recovery Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-18

Temperature Models Developed for the Missouri River Recovery Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement En vi ro nm en ta l L ab or at or y...Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) Water Temperature Models Developed for the Missouri River Recovery Management Plan and Environmental...Prepared for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 Under Project 396939, “Missouri River Recovery Management Plan and Environmental

Gender, Complexity, and Science for All: Systemizing and Its Impact on Motivation to Learn Science for Different Science Subjects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeyer, Albert

2018-01-01

The present study is based on a large cross-cultural study, which showed that a systemizing cognition type has a high impact on motivation to learn science, while the impact of gender is only indirect thorough systemizing. The present study uses the same structural equation model as in the cross-cultural study and separately tests it for physics,…

Sensitivity analysis of automatic flight control systems using singular value concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrera-Vaillard, A.; Paduano, J.; Downing, D.

1985-01-01

A sensitivity analysis is presented that can be used to judge the impact of vehicle dynamic model variations on the relative stability of multivariable continuous closed-loop control systems. The sensitivity analysis uses and extends the singular-value concept by developing expressions for the gradients of the singular value with respect to variations in the vehicle dynamic model and the controller design. Combined with a priori estimates of the accuracy of the model, the gradients are used to identify the elements in the vehicle dynamic model and controller that could severely impact the system's relative stability. The technique is demonstrated for a yaw/roll damper stability augmentation designed for a business jet.

Impact of reduced mass of light commercial vehicles on fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, air quality, and socio-economic costs.

PubMed

Cecchel, S; Chindamo, D; Turrini, E; Carnevale, C; Cornacchia, G; Gadola, M; Panvini, A; Volta, M; Ferrario, D; Golimbioschi, R

2018-02-01

This study presents a modelling system to evaluate the impact of weight reduction in light commercial vehicles with diesel engines on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. The PROPS model assesses the emissions of one vehicle in the aforementioned category and its corresponding reduced-weight version. The results serve as an input to the RIAT+ tool, an air quality integrated assessment modelling system. This paper applies the tools in a case study in the Lombardy region (Italy) and discusses the input data pre-processing, the PROPS-RIAT+ modelling system runs, and the results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A systems biology approach to understanding impacts of environmental contaminants on fish reproduction

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past decade, our research team at the US EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division has employed systems biology approaches to examine and understand impacts of environmental contaminants on fish reproduction. Our systems biology approach is one in which iterations of model cons...

Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

2014-12-01

The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and social dynamics impact demand, how changes in demand affect the regional water system, and under what system challenges the values of the individuals are likely to change. This study is a preamble to modeling multiple regionally connected cities and larger systems with impacts on hydrology at the continental and global scales.

A quality-based cost model for new electronic systems and products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shina, Sammy G.; Saigal, Anil

1998-04-01

This article outlines a method for developing a quality-based cost model for the design of new electronic systems and products. The model incorporates a methodology for determining a cost-effective design margin allocation for electronic products and systems and its impact on manufacturing quality and cost. A spreadsheet-based cost estimating tool was developed to help implement this methodology in order for the system design engineers to quickly estimate the effect of design decisions and tradeoffs on the quality and cost of new products. The tool was developed with automatic spreadsheet connectivity to current process capability and with provisions to consider the impact of capital equipment and tooling purchases to reduce the product cost.

Ballistic performance of porous-ceramic, thermal protection systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Joshua E.; Bohl, William E.; Christiansen, Eric C.; Davis, Bruce A.; Foreman, Cory D.

2012-03-01

Porous-ceramic, thermal protection systems are used heavily in current reentry vehicles like the Orbiter, and they are currently being proposed for the next generation of US manned spacecraft, Orion. These systems insulate reentry critical components of a spacecraft against the intense thermal environments of atmospheric reentry. Additionally, these materials are highly exposed to space environment hazards like solid particle impacts. This paper discusses impact studies up to 10 km/s on 8 lb/ft3 alumina-fiber-enhanced-thermal-barrier (AETB8) tiles coated with a toughened-unipiece-fibrousinsulation/ reaction-cured-glass layer (TUFI/RCG). A semi-empirical, first principles impact model that describes projectile dispersion is described that provides excellent agreement with observations over a broad range of impact velocities, obliquities and projectile materials. Model extensions to look at the implications of greater than 10 GPa equation of state is also discussed. Predicted penetration probabilities for a vehicle visiting the International Space Station is 60% lower for orbital debris and 95% lower for meteoroids with this model compared to an energy scaled approach.

a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

2010-06-01

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain).

PubMed

Bürger, C M; Kolditz, O; Fowler, H J; Blenkinsop, S

2007-08-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system.

Impact analysis of air gap motion with respect to parameters of mooring system for floating platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Zhong-xiang; Huo, Fa-li; Nie, Yan; Liu, Yin-dong

2017-04-01

In this paper, the impact analysis of air gap concerning the parameters of mooring system for the semi-submersible platform is conducted. It is challenging to simulate the wave, current and wind loads of a platform based on a model test simultaneously. Furthermore, the dynamic equivalence between the truncated and full-depth mooring system is still a tuff work. However, the wind and current loads can be tested accurately in wind tunnel model. Furthermore, the wave can be simulated accurately in wave tank test. The full-scale mooring system and the all environment loads can be simulated accurately by using the numerical model based on the model tests simultaneously. In this paper, the air gap response of a floating platform is calculated based on the results of tunnel test and wave tank. Meanwhile, full-scale mooring system, the wind, wave and current load can be considered simultaneously. In addition, a numerical model of the platform is tuned and validated by ANSYS AQWA according to the model test results. With the support of the tuned numerical model, seventeen simulation cases about the presented platform are considered to study the wave, wind, and current loads simultaneously. Then, the impact analysis studies of air gap motion regarding the length, elasticity, and type of the mooring line are performed in the time domain under the beam wave, head wave, and oblique wave conditions.

Are stormwater pollution impacts significant in life cycle assessment? A new methodology for quantifying embedded urban stormwater impacts.

PubMed

Phillips, Robert; Jeswani, Harish Kumar; Azapagic, Adisa; Apul, Defne

2018-09-15

Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models do not explicitly incorporate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution. To address this issue, a framework to estimate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution over the lifetime of a system has been developed, laying the groundwork for subsequent improvements in life cycle databases and LCA modelling. The proposed framework incorporates urban stormwater event mean concentration (EMC) data into existing LCA impact categories to account for the environmental impacts associated with urban land occupation across the whole life cycle of a system. It consists of five steps: (1) compilation of inventory of urban stormwater pollutants; (2) collection of precipitation data; (3) classification and characterisation within existing midpoint impact categories; (4) collation of inventory data for impermeable urban land occupation; and (5) impact assessment. The framework is generic and can be applied to any system using any LCA impact method. Its application is demonstrated by two illustrative case studies: electricity generation and production of construction materials. The results show that pollutants in urban stormwater have an influence on human toxicity, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, freshwater eutrophication and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Among these, urban stormwater pollution has the highest relative contribution to the eutrophication potentials. The results also suggest that stormwater pollution from urban areas can have a substantial effect on the life cycle impacts of some systems (construction materials), while for some systems the effect is small (e.g. electricity generation). However, it is not possible to determine a priori which systems are affected so that the impacts from stormwater pollution should be considered routinely in future LCA studies. The paper also proposes ways to incorporate stormwater pollution burdens into the life cycle databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-Resolution Modelling of Health Impacts from Air Pollution for Denmark using the Integrated Model System EVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Hansen, Kaj M.; Hertel, Ole; Im, Ulas; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Geels, Camilla

2015-04-01

We have developed an integrated health impact assessment system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution; Brandt et al., 2013a; 2013b), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. The EVA system has previously been used to assess the health impacts based on results from a regional model DEHM (the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model; Brandt et al., 2012). In this study we have used a coupling of two chemistry transport models to calculate the air pollution concentration at different scales; the DEHM model to calculate the air pollution levels with a resolution down to 5.6 km x 5.6 km and the UBM model (Urban Background Model ; Berkowicz, 2000; Brandt et al., 2001) to further calculate the air pollution at 1 km x 1 km resolution for Denmark using results from DEHM as boundary conditions. Both the emission data based on the SPREAD model (Plejdrup and Gyldenkærne, 2011) as well as the population density has been represented in the model system with the same high resolution. The new developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over the years 2006-2014 for Denmark. Furthermore, a sensitivity study of the health impact using coarse and fine resolutions in the model system has been carried out to evaluate the effect of improved description of the geographical population distribution with respect to location of local emissions. References Berkowicz, R., 2000. A Simple Model for Urban Background Pollution. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 65, 1/2, 259-267. Brandt, J., J. H. Christensen, L. M. Frohn, F. Palmgren, R. Berkowicz and Z. Zlatev, 2001: "Operational air pollution forecasts from European to local scale". Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 35, Sup. No. 1, pp. S91-S98, 2001 Brandt, J., J. D. Silver, L. M. Frohn, C. Geels, A. Gross, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, G. B. Hedegaard, C. A. Skjøth, H. Villadsen, A. Zare, and J. H. Christensen, 2012: An integrated model study for Europe and North America using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model with focus on intercontinental transport. Atmospheric Environment, Volume 53, June 2012, pp. 156-176, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.01.011 Brandt, J., J. D. Silver, J. H. Christensen, M. S. Andersen, J. Bønløkke, T. Sigsgaard, C. Geels, A. Gross, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, G. B. Hedegaard, E. Kaas and L. M. Frohn, 2013a: "Contribution from the ten major emission sectors in Europe to the Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution using the EVA Model System - an integrated modelling approach". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, pp. 7725-7746, 2013. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/7725/2013/, doi:10.5194/acp-13-7725-2013. Brandt, J., J. D. Silver, J. H. Christensen, M. S. Andersen, J. Bønløkke, T. Sigsgaard, C. Geels, A. Gross, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, G. B. Hedegaard, E. Kaas and L. M. Frohn, 2013b: "Assessment of Past, Present and Future Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA Model System". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Vol. 13, pp. 7747-7764, 2013. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/7747/2013/. doi:10.5194/acp-13-7747-2013. Plejdrup, M.S., Gyldenkærne, S., 2011. Spatial distribution of pollutants to air - the SPREAD model. NERI Technical Report No. 823.

Multiobjective Collaborative Optimization of Systems of Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

K: HSC MODEL AND OPTIMIZATION DESCRIPTION ................................................ 157 APPENDIX L: HSC OPTIMIZATION CODE...7 0 Table 6. System Variables of FPF Data Set Showing Minimal HSC Impact on...App.E, F) Data Analysis Front ITS Model (App. I, J) Chap.] 1 ConclusionsSHSC Model (App. K, L) Cot[& HSC Model (App. M, NV) MoeJ Future Work Figure

Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks, and Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Barrett, C.; Kraucunas, I.; Rice, J.; Sue Wing, I.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Reed, P. M.

2016-12-01

This presentation will report on the findings of recent modeling studies and a series of workshops and other efforts convened under the auspices of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to improve integration of critical infrastructure, natural resources, integrated assessment, and human systems modeling. The focus is issues related to drought and increased variability of water supply at the energy-water-land nexus. One motivation for the effort is the potential for impact cascades across coupled built, natural, and socioeconomic systems stressed by social and environmental change. The design is for an adaptable modeling framework that will includes a repository of independently-developed modeling tools of varying complexity - from coarser grid, longer time-horizon to higher-resolution shorter-term models of socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, and natural resources. The models draw from three interlocking research communities: Earth system, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment. A key lesson will be explored, namely the importance of defining a clear use perspective to limit dimensionality, focus modeling, and facilitate uncertainty characterization and communication.

Psycho-Ecological Systems Model: A Systems Approach to Planning and Gauging the Community Impact of Community-Engaged Scholarship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeb, Roger N.; Snow-Hill, Nyssa L.; Folger, Susan F.; Steel, Anne L.; Stayton, Laura; Hunt, Charles A.; O'Koon, Bernadette; Glendening, Zachary

2017-01-01

This article presents the Psycho-Ecological Systems Model (PESM)--an integrative conceptual model rooted in General Systems Theory (GST). PESM was developed to inform and guide the development, implementation, and evaluation of transdisciplinary (and multilevel) community-engaged scholarship (e.g., a participatory community action research project…

Full-scale Transport Controlled Impact Demonstration Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and NASA conducted a full-scale air-to-surface impact-survivable impact demonstration with a remotely piloted transport aircraft on 1 December 1984, at Edwards Air Force Base, California. The test article consisted of experiments, special equipment, and supporting systems, such as antimisting kerosene (AMK), crashworthiness structural/restraint, analytical modeling, cabin fire safety, flight data recorders, post-impact investigation, instrumentation/data acquisition systems, remotely piloted vehicle/flight control systems, range and flight safety provisions, etc. This report describes the aircraft, experiments, systems, activities, and events which lead up to the Controlled Impact Demonstration (CID). An overview of the final unmanned remote control flight and sequence of impact events are delineated. Preliminary post CID observations are presented.

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.

2017-01-01

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravitys impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Space Human Factors and Habitability and Behavioral Health and Performance Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.

2016-01-01

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravity's impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

Assessment of distributed photovoltair electric-power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, R. W.; Deduck, P. F.; Marshall, R. N.

1982-10-01

The development of a methodology to assess the potential impacts of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems on electric utility systems, including subtransmission and distribution networks, and to apply that methodology to several illustrative examples was developed. The investigations focused upon five specific utilities. Impacts upon utility system operations and generation mix were assessed using accepted utility planning methods in combination with models that simulate PV system performance and life cycle economics. Impacts on the utility subtransmission and distribution systems were also investigated. The economic potential of distributed PV systems was investigated for ownership by the utility as well as by the individual utility customer.

ITS impacts assessment for Seattle MMDI evaluation : modeling methodology and results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

This document presents a modeling analysis of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) impacts from the SmartTrek program in Seattle, Washington. This report describes the methodology of the study and presents the finding for a mixed freeway/arterial...

Methodologies for Evaluating Environmental Benefits of Intelligent Transportation Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-05-01

This report provides an overview of the current state of practice in evaluation of air quality impacts and also in emissions modeling. This report also describes the recent developments in emissions modeling. The air quality impacts of various ITS st...

ITS impacts assessment for Seattle MMDI evaluation : modeling methodology and results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

This document presents an executive summary of a modeling analysis of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) impacts from the SmartTrek program in Seattle, Washington. This report describes the methodology of the study and presents the finding for ...

How to optimize tuberculosis case finding: explorations for Indonesia with a health system model

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background A mathematical model was designed to explore the impact of three strategies for better tuberculosis case finding. Strategies included: (1) reducing the number of tuberculosis patients who do not seek care; (2) reducing diagnostic delay; and (3) engaging non-DOTS providers in the referral of tuberculosis suspects to DOTS services in the Indonesian health system context. The impact of these strategies on tuberculosis mortality and treatment outcome was estimated using a mathematical model of the Indonesian health system. Methods The model consists of multiple compartments representing logical movement of a respiratory symptomatic (tuberculosis suspect) through the health system, including patient- and health system delays. Main outputs of the model are tuberculosis death rate and treatment outcome (i.e. full or partial cure). We quantified the model parameters for the Jogjakarta province context, using a two round Delphi survey with five Indonesian tuberculosis experts. Results The model validation shows that four critical model outputs (average duration of symptom onset to treatment, detection rate, cure rate, and death rate) were reasonably close to existing available data, erring towards more optimistic outcomes than are actually reported. The model predicted that an intervention to reduce the proportion of tuberculosis patients who never seek care would have the biggest impact on tuberculosis death prevention, while an intervention resulting in more referrals of tuberculosis suspects to DOTS facilities would yield higher cure rates. This finding is similar for situations where the alternative sector is a more important health resource, such as in most other parts of Indonesia. Conclusion We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact of Indonesian health system interventions on tuberculosis treatment outcome and deaths. Because detailed data were not available regarding the current Indonesian population, we relied on expert opinion to quantify the parameters. The fact that the model output showed similar results to epidemiological data suggests that the experts had an accurate understanding of this subject, thereby reassuring the quality of our predictions. The model highlighted the potential effectiveness of active case finding of tuberculosis patients with limited access to DOTS facilities in the developing country setting. PMID:19505296

Small-Signal Dynamic Analysis of LCC-HVDC with STATCOM at the Inverter Busbar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dong; Jiang, Wen; Guo, Chunyi; Rehman, Atiq Ur; Zhao, Chengyong

2018-01-01

This paper develops a linearized small-signal dynamic model of a Line-Commutated-Converter based HVDC (LCC-HVDC) system with STATCOM at the inverter busbar, and validates its accuracy by comparing time-domain responses from small-signal model and PSCAD-based simulation results. Considering the potential impact of Phase-Locked-Loop (PLL) parameters on the study system and the close connection of STATCOM and LCC inverter station at AC busbar, this paper investigates the impact of PLL gains and AC voltage control parameters of STATCOM on the system small-signal stability. The studies show that (i) the PLL gain has highly impact on the study system and smaller PLL gains are preferable; (ii) larger values of both the proportional gain and the integral gain of AC voltage controller of STATCOM could result in oscillation/instability of the system.

Commercial Impact and Optimum Capacity Determination of Pumped Storage Hydro Plant for a Practical Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latha, P. G.; Anand, S. R.; Imthias, Ahamed T. P.; Sreejith, P. S., Dr.

2013-06-01

This paper attempts to study the commercial impact of pumped storage hydro plant on the operation of a stressed power system. The paper further attempts to compute the optimum capacity of the pumped storage scheme that can be provided on commercial basis for a practical power system. Unlike the analysis of commercial aspects of pumped storage scheme attempted in several papers, this paper is presented from the point of view of power system management of a practical system considering the impact of the scheme on the economic operation of the system. A realistic case study is presented as the many factors that influence the pumped storage operation vary widely from one system to another. The suitability of pumped storage for the particular generation mix of a system is well explored in the paper. To substantiate the economic impact of pumped storage on the system, the problem is formulated as a short-term hydrothermal scheduling problem involving power purchase which optimizes the quantum of power to be scheduled and the duration of operation. The optimization model is formulated using an algebraic modeling language, AMPL, which is then solved using the advanced MILP solver CPLEX.

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie

2015-05-15

Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well asmore » a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.« less

Predicting brain acceleration during heading of soccer ball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Zahari; Hasnun Arif Hassan, Mohd; Azri Aris, Mohd; Anuar, Zulfika

2013-12-01

There has been a long debate whether purposeful heading could cause harm to the brain. Studies have shown that repetitive heading could lead to degeneration of brain cells, which is similarly found in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. A two-degree of freedom linear mathematical model was developed to study the impact of soccer ball to the brain during ball-to-head impact in soccer. From the model, the acceleration of the brain upon impact can be obtained. The model is a mass-spring-damper system, in which the skull is modelled as a mass and the neck is modelled as a spring-damper system. The brain is a mass with suspension characteristics that are also defined by a spring and a damper. The model was validated by experiment, in which a ball was dropped from different heights onto an instrumented dummy skull. The validation shows that the results obtained from the model are in a good agreement with the brain acceleration measured from the experiment. This findings show that a simple linear mathematical model can be useful in giving a preliminary insight on what human brain endures during a ball-to-head impact.

Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.

Long-term impacts of battery electric vehicles on the German electricity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinrichs, H. U.; Jochem, P.

2016-05-01

The emerging market for electric vehicles gives rise to an additional electricity demand. This new electricity demand will affect the electricity system. For quantifying those impacts a model-based approach, which covers long-term time horizons is necessary in order to consider the long lasting investment paths in electricity systems and the market development of electric mobility. Therefore, we apply a bottom-up electricity system model showing a detailed spatial resolution for different development paths of electric mobility in Germany until 2030. This model is based on a linear optimization which minimizes the discounted costs of the electricity system. We observe an increase of electricity exchange between countries and electricity generated by renewable energy sources. One major result turns out to be that electric vehicles can be integrated in the electricity system without increasing the system costs when a controlled (postponing) charging strategy for electric vehicles is applied. The impact on the power plant portfolio is insignificant. Another important side effect of electric vehicles is their substantial contribution to decreasing CO2 emissions of the German transport sector. Hence, electric mobility might be an integral part of a sustainable energy system of tomorrow.

Evaluating the role of private investment in infrastructure assets.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-10-01

Public Private Partnership (P3) projects are likely to fundamentally impact entire : transportation systems. However, most studies are focused on system modeling rather than : policy analysis, and few studies have examined the impacts of P3s on real-...

Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.

2001-05-31

This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

The Influence of Cylinder Lubrication on Piston Slap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerges, S. N. Y.; de Luca, J. C.; Lalor, N.

2002-10-01

A model has been developed for determining the time history of piston slap impact force. This model takes into account the influence of the oil film on the impact behaviour, which was found to be an important factor. However, it was also found that entrapped gas bubbles in the oil are equally significant. Three test rigs were designed and built to study these effects on the impact phenomenon and extensive tests were carried out. The impact force time history has been determined using Reynolds' theory. Results have shown that Reynolds' theory for fluid film squeezing can be applied for oil film damping determination. However, the experimental results have also shown that when gas is entrapped during the impact, this theory considerably overpredicts the magnitude of the impact. An eight-degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model was developed through the dynamic analysis of each component of an internal combustion engine's reciprocating system. The effective damping factor derived from this model was found to be inversely proportional to the oil film thickness cubed, as expected from Reynolds' theory. A dynamic model has been proposed, where the oil film mixed with bubbles is considered to be analogous to a serial spring and damping system. By incorporating a spring in series with this damper, the effect of the bubbles can also be predicted.

Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for Redirecting Asteroids

DOE PAGES

Stickle, A. M.; Atchison, J. A.; Barnouin, O. S.; ...

2015-05-19

Kinetic impactors are one way to deflect a potentially hazardous object headed for Earth. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is designed to test the effectiveness of this approach and is a joint effort between NASA and ESA. The NASA-led portion is the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) and is composed of a ~300-kg spacecraft designed to impact the moon of the binary system 65803 Didymos. The deflection of the moon will be measured by the ESA-led Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) (which will characterize the moon) and from ground-based observations. Because the material properties and internal structure ofmore » the target are poorly constrained, however, analytical models and numerical simulations must be used to understand the range of potential outcomes. Here, we describe a modeling effort combining analytical models and CTH simulations to determine possible outcomes of the DART impact. We examine a wide parameter space and provide predictions for crater size, ejecta mass, and momentum transfer following the impact into the moon of the Didymos system. For impacts into “realistic” asteroid types, these models produce craters with diameters on the order of 10 m, an imparted Δv of 0.5–2 mm/s and a momentum enhancement of 1.07 to 5 for a highly porous aggregate to a fully dense rock.« less

Evaluation of water resources system vulnerability based on co-operative co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit model under the DPSIR framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Su, X. H.; Wang, M. H.; Li, Z. Y.; Li, E. K.; Xu, X.

2017-08-01

Water resources vulnerability control management is essential because it is related to the benign evolution of socio-economic, environmental and water resources system. Research on water resources system vulnerability is helpful to realization of water resources sustainable utilization. In this study, the DPSIR framework of driving forces-pressure-state-impact-response was adopted to construct the evaluation index system of water resources system vulnerability. Then the co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit were used to establish evaluation model of water resources system vulnerability. Tengzhou City in Shandong Province was selected as a study area. The system vulnerability was analyzed in terms of driving forces, pressure, state, impact and response on the basis of the projection value calculated by the model. The results show that the five components all belong to vulnerability Grade II, the vulnerability degree of impact and state were higher than other components due to the fierce imbalance in supply-demand and the unsatisfied condition of water resources utilization. It is indicated that the influence of high speed socio-economic development and the overuse of the pesticides have already disturbed the benign development of water environment to some extents. While the indexes in response represented lower vulnerability degree than the other components. The results of the evaluation model are coincident with the status of water resources system in the study area, which indicates that the model is feasible and effective.

Astrophysics space systems critical technology needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gartrell, C. F.

1982-01-01

This paper addresses an independent assessment of space system technology needs for future astrophysics flight programs contained within the NASA Space Systems Technology Model. The critical examination of the system needs for the approximately 30 flight programs in the model are compared to independent technology forecasts and possible technology deficits are discussed. These deficits impact the developments needed for spacecraft propulsion, power, materials, structures, navigation, guidance and control, sensors, communications and data processing. There are also associated impacts upon in-orbit assembly technology and space transportation systems. A number of under-utilized technologies are highlighted which could be exploited to reduce cost and enhance scientific return.

Acquisition of Complex Systemic Thinking: Mental Models of Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

d'Apollonia, Sylvia T.; Charles, Elizabeth S.; Boyd, Gary M.

2004-01-01

We investigated the impact of introducing college students to complex adaptive systems on their subsequent mental models of evolution compared to those of students taught in the same manner but with no reference to complex systems. The students' mental models (derived from similarity ratings of 12 evolutionary terms using the pathfinder algorithm)…

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic and non-linear interactions among transportation, land use, and socioeconomic systems. System dynamics (SD) provides a common framework for modeling the complex interactions among transportation and other related systems. This study uses a SD model to simulate the cascading impacts of a proposed light rail transit (LRT) system in central North Carolina, USA. The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) SD model incorporates relationships among the land use, transportation, and economy sectors to simulate the complex feedbacks that give rise to the travel behavior changes forecasted by the region’s transportation model. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of changes in travel behavior to the proposed LRT system and the assumptions that went into the transportation modeling, and compares those results to the impacts of an alternative fare-free transit system. SD models such as the D-O LRP SD model can complement transportation studies by providing valuable insight into the interdependent community systems that collectively contribute to travel behavior changes. Presented at the 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, MA, July 18th, 2017

System robustness analysis for drought risk management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, D.; Bouwer, L.; Barnes, J.; Mens, M.; Obeysekera, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is a frequently returning natural hazard in Florida, with at least one severe drought to be expected every decade. These droughts have had many impacts such as loss of agricultural products, inadequate public water supply and salt water intrusion into freshwater aquifers. Furthermore, climate change projections for South Florida suggest that dry spells are likely to be more frequent and prolonged, with negative impacts on water supply management for all users. In this study a System Robustness Analysis was conducted in order to analyse the effectiveness of strategies to limit the socio-economic impact of droughts under climate change. System Robustness Analysis (SRA) aims to support decision making by quantifying how well a system, with and without additional measures, can remain functioning under a range of external disturbances. Two system characteristics add up to system robustness: Resistance is the ability to withstand disturbances without responding (zero impact), and resilience is the ability to recover from the response to a disturbance. SRA can help to provide insight into the sensitivity of a system to changing magnitudes of extreme weather events. A regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is used to simulate the effect of changing precipitation and evaporation forcing on agricultural and urban water supply and demand in South Florida. The complex water management operational rules including water use restrictions are simulated in the model. Based on model runs with a various climate scenarios, drought events with a wide range of severity are identified and for each event the socio-economic impacts are determined. Here, a drought is defined as a reduced streamflow in the upstream Kissimmee basin, which contributes most to Lake Okeechobee, the major surface water storage in the system. The drought severity is characterized by the maximum drought deficit volume. Drought impacts are analyzed for several users in Miami Dade County. From the relation between drought severity and drought impact the resistance and resilience of the system for hydrological droughts are found. This relation is investigated for an array of adaptation measures and strategies in order to find strategies that will effectively increase the system's ability to deal with future drought events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to themore » GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.« less

Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierazzo, E.

2005-01-01

The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Page, Christian; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2013-04-01

Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNRS-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 project IS-ENES (http://is.enes.org), which supports the European climate modeling infrastructure, in the work package 'Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community'. The aim of this work package is to enhance the use of climate model data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in a prototype portal, the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities, that can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The portal is connected to all Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and later from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of all major climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using GCM data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESG data nodes. The ESG works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESG search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESG nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Visualization: Visualize any data directly using ADAGUC dynamic Web Map Services. - Transformation: Transform your data into other formats, perform basic calculations and extractions using OCG Web Processing Services The current portal is a Prototype. It is built to explore state-of-art technologies to provide improved access to climate model data. The prototype will be evaluated and is the basis for development of an operational service. The portal and services provided will be sustained and supported during the development of these operational services (2013-2016) in the second phase of the FP7 IS-ENES project, ISENES2.

Evaluating the impacts of agricultural land management practices: A probabilistic hydrologic modeling approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The complexity of the hydrologic system challenges the development of models. One issue faced during the model development stage is the uncertainty involved in model parameterization. Using a single optimized set of parameters (one snapshot) to represent baseline conditions of the system limits the ...

Landing impact studies of a 0.3-scale model air cushion landing system for a Navy fighter airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leland, T. J. W.; Thompson, W. C.

1975-01-01

An experimental study was conducted in order to determine the landing-impact behavior of a 0.3-scale, dynamically (but not physically) similar model of a high-density Navy fighter equipped with an air cushion landing system. The model was tested over a range of landing contact attitudes at high forward speeds and sink rates on a specialized test fixture at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The investigation indicated that vertical acceleration at landing impact was highly dependent on the pitch angle at ground contact, the higher acceleration of approximately 5g occurring near zero body-pitch attitude. A limited number of low-speed taxi tests were made in order to determine model stability characteristics. The model was found to have good pitch-damping characteristics but stability in roll was marginal.

Impact of Three-Dimensional Printed Pelvicaliceal System Models on Residents' Understanding of Pelvicaliceal System Anatomy Before Percutaneous Nephrolithotripsy Surgery: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Atalay, Hasan Anıl; Ülker, Volkan; Alkan, İlter; Canat, Halil Lütfi; Özkuvancı, Ünsal; Altunrende, Fatih

2016-10-01

To investigate the impact of three-dimensional (3D) printed pelvicaliceal system models on residents' understanding of pelvicaliceal system anatomy before percutaneous nephrolithotripsy (PCNL). Patients with unilateral complex renal stones indicating PCNL were selected. Usable data of patients were obtained from CT-scans in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) format. Mimics software version 16.0 (Materialise, Belgium) was used for segmentation and extraction of pelvicaliceal systems (PCSs). All DICOM-formatted files were converted to the stereolithography file format. Finally, fused deposition modeling was used to create plasticine 3D models of PCSs. A questionnaire was designed so that residents could assess the 3D models' effects on their understanding of the anatomy of the pelvicaliceal system before PCNL (Fig. 3). Five patients' anatomically accurate models of the human renal collecting system were effectively generated (Figs. 1 and 2). After presentation of the 3D models, residents were 86% and 88% better at determining the number of anterior and posterior calices, respectively, 60% better at understanding stone location, and 64% better at determining optimal entry calix into the collecting system (Fig. 5). Generating kidney models of PCSs using 3D printing technology is feasible, and the models were accepted by residents as aids in surgical planning and understanding of pelvicaliceal system anatomy before PCNL.

Review and application of MULTIREGION as a regional economic impact and projection model. Technical report TR/IA/79-26

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandoval, A.D.

1979-05-01

The report provides an overview of the MULTIREGION model and its use to determine the regional economic implications of three energy and economic projections developed for use in the EIA's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. The MULTIREGION projections are compared with similar projections undertaken using the Regional Earnings Impact System (REIS), developed and maintained by EIA. The strengths and weaknesses of the two modeling systems are reviewed. Examples of the MULTIREGION projection output are presented in an appendix. (MCW)

Demonstrating the climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Page, Christian; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2013-04-01

Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNRS-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 project IS-ENES (http://is.enes.org), which supports the European climate modeling infrastructure, in the work package 'Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community'. The aim of this work package is to enhance the use of climate model data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in a prototype portal, the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities, that can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The portal is connected to all Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and later from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of all major climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. The following topics will be demonstrated: - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESG data nodes. The ESG works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESG search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESG nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Visualization: Visualize any data directly using ADAGUC dynamic Web Map Services. - Transformation: Transform your data into other formats, perform basic calculations and extractions using OCG Web Processing Services The current portal is a Prototype. It is built to explore state-of-art technologies to provide improved access to climate model data. The prototype will be evaluated and is the basis for development of an operational service. The portal and services provided will be sustained and supported during the development of these operational services (2013-2016) in the second phase of the FP7 IS-ENES project, ISENES2.

Delineating the Impact of Weightlessness on Human Physiology Using Computational Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassemi, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Microgravity environment has profound effects on several important human physiological systems. The impact of weightlessness is usually indirect as mediated by changes in the biological fluid flow and transport and alterations in the deformation and stress fields of the compliant tissues. In this context, Fluid-Structural and Fluid-Solid Interaction models provide a valuable tool in delineating the physical origins of the physiological changes so that systematic countermeasures can be devised to reduce their adverse effects. In this presentation, impact of gravity on three human physiological systems will be considered. The first case involves prediction of cardiac shape change and altered stress distributions in weightlessness. The second, presents a fluid-structural-interaction (FSI) analysis and assessment of the vestibular system and explores the reasons behind the unexpected microgravity caloric stimulation test results performed aboard the Skylab. The last case investigates renal stone development in microgravity and the possible impact of re-entry into partial gravity on the development and transport of nucleating, growing, and agglomerating renal calculi in the nephron. Finally, the need for model validation and verification and application of the FSI models to assess the effects of Artificial Gravity (AG) are also briefly discussed.

Analysis of Mesh Distribution Systems Considering Load Models and Load Growth Impact with Loops on System Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar Sharma, A.; Murty, V. V. S. N.

2014-12-01

The distribution system is the final link between bulk power system and consumer end. A distinctive load flow solution method is used for analysis of the load flow of radial and weakly meshed network based on Kirchhoff's Current Law (KCL) and KVL. This method has excellent convergence characteristics for both radial as well as weakly meshed structure and is based on bus injection to branch current and branch-current to bus-voltage matrix. The main contribution of the paper is: (i) an analysis has been carried out for a weekly mesh network considering number of loops addition and its impact on the losses, kW and kVAr requirements from a system, and voltage profile, (ii) different load models, realistic ZIP load model and load growth impact on losses, voltage profile, kVA and kVAr requirements, (iii) impact of addition of loops on losses, voltage profile, kVA and kVAr requirements from substation, and (iv) comparison of system performance with radial distribution system. Voltage stability is a major concern in planning and operation of power systems. This paper also includes identifying the closeness critical bus which is the most sensitive to the voltage collapse in radial distribution networks. Node having minimum value of voltage stability index is the most sensitive node. Voltage stability index values are computed for meshed network with number of loops added in the system. The results have been obtained for IEEE 33 and 69 bus test system. The results have also been obtained for radial distribution system for comparison.

Flow Simulation of Modified Duct System Wind Turbines Installed on Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosly, N.; Mohd, S.; Zulkafli, M. F.; Ghafir, M. F. Abdul; Shamsudin, S. S.; Muhammad, W. N. A. Wan

2017-10-01

This study investigates the characteristics of airflow with a flow guide installed and output power generated by wind turbine system being installed on a pickup truck. The wind turbine models were modelled by using SolidWorks 2015 software. In order to investigate the characteristic of air flow inside the wind turbine system, a computer simulation (by using ANSYS Fluent software) is used. There were few models being designed and simulated, one without the rotor installed and another two with rotor installed in the wind turbine system. Three velocities being used for the simulation which are 16.7 m/s (60 km/h), 25 m/s (90 km/h) and 33.33 m/s (120 km/h). The study proved that the flow guide did give an impact to the output power produced by the wind turbine system. The predicted result from this study is the velocity of the air inside the ducting system of the present model is better that reference model. Besides, the flow guide implemented in the ducting system gives a big impact on the characteristics of the air flow.

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2010-01-01

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

PubMed

Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

2018-08-01

Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Funding Policies on Higher Education in Jamaica

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Huisman, Jeroen; Powell, Philip

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the changes in the higher education funding policies and resource allocation models of the Jamaican government in the period 1962-2003. Throughout these four decades, four different systems were in force. This paper focuses particularly on the arguments for the funding policies and models and the impact of the models on the…

Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For more than three decades, researchers have utilized the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years using SRM with both typical and recommende...

Impacts of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) development on recreation and tourism. Volume 5. Program logic manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The final report for the project is presented in five volumes. This volume is the Programmer's Manual. It covers: a system overview, attractiveness component of gravity model, trip-distribution component of gravity model, economic-effects model, and the consumer-surplus model. The project sought to determine the impact of Outer Continental Shelf development on recreation and tourism.

Error Propagation in a System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schloegel, Kirk (Inventor); Bhatt, Devesh (Inventor); Oglesby, David V. (Inventor); Madl, Gabor (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Embodiments of the present subject matter can enable the analysis of signal value errors for system models. In an example, signal value errors can be propagated through the functional blocks of a system model to analyze possible effects as the signal value errors impact incident functional blocks. This propagation of the errors can be applicable to many models of computation including avionics models, synchronous data flow, and Kahn process networks.

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform.

Modeling of Local BEAM Structure for Evaluation of MMOD Impacts to Support Development of a Health Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Vassilakos, Gregory J.

2015-01-01

This report summarizes initial modeling of the local response of the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) to micrometeorite and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts using a structural, non-linear, transient dynamic finite element code. Complementary test results for a local BEAM structure are presented for both hammer and projectile impacts. Review of these data provided guidance for the transient dynamic model development. The local model is intended to support predictions using the global BEAM model, described in a companion report. Two types of local models were developed. One mimics the simplified Soft-Goods (fabric envelop) part of the BEAM NASTRAN model delivered by the project. The second investigates through-the-thickness modeling challenges for MMOD-type impacts. Both the testing and the analysis summaries contain lessons learned and areas for future efforts.

On the origin and composition of Theia: Constraints from new models of the Giant Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M. M. M.; Reufer, A.; Wieler, R.

2014-11-01

Knowing the isotopic composition of Theia, the proto-planet which collided with the Earth in the Giant Impact that formed the Moon, could provide interesting insights on the state of homogenization of the inner Solar System at the late stages of terrestrial planet formation. We use the known isotopic and modeled chemical compositions of the bulk silicate mantles of Earth and Moon and combine them with different Giant Impact models, to calculate the possible ranges of isotopic composition of Theia in O, Si, Ti, Cr, Zr and W in each model. We compare these ranges to the isotopic composition of carbonaceous chondrites, Mars, and other Solar System materials. In the absence of post-impact isotopic re-equilibration, the recently proposed high angular momentum models of the Giant Impact ("impact-fission", Cúk, M., Stewart, S.T. [2012]. Science 338, 1047; and "merger", Canup, R.M. [2012]. Science 338, 1052) allow - by a narrow margin - for a Theia similar to CI-chondrites, and Mars. The "hit-and-run" model (Reufer, A., Meier, M.M.M., Benz, W., Wieler, R. [2012]. Icarus 221, 296-299) allows for a Theia similar to enstatite-chondrites and other Earth-like materials. If the Earth and Moon inherited their different mantle FeO contents from the bulk mantles of the proto-Earth and Theia, the high angular momentum models cannot explain the observed difference. However, both the hit-and-run as well as the classical or "canonical" Giant Impact model naturally explain this difference as the consequence of a simple mixture of two mantles with different FeO. Therefore, the simplest way to reconcile the isotopic similarity, and FeO dissimilarity, of Earth and Moon is a Theia with an Earth-like isotopic composition and a higher (∼20%) mantle FeO content.

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-minmore » compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.« less

Chart links solar, geophysical events with impacts on space technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davenport, George R.

While developing a Space Weather Training Program for Air Force Space Command and the 50th Weather Squadron, both based in Colorado, ARINC Incorporated produced a flowchart that correlates solar and geophysical events with their impacts on Air Force systems.Personnel from both organizations collaborated in the development of the flowchart and provided many comments and suggestions. The model became the centerpiece of the Space Environment Impacts Reference Pamphlet, as well as the formal Space Weather Training Program. Although it is not a numerical or computer model, the flowchart became known as the “Space Environmental Impacts Model.”

The interactive impact of forest site and stand attributes and logging technology on stand management

Treesearch

C.B. LeDoux; J.E. Baumgras

1991-01-01

The impact of selected site and stand attributes on stand management is demonstrated using actual forest model plot data and a complete systems simulation model called MANAGE. The influence of terrain on the type of logging technology required to log a stand and the resulting impact on stand management is also illustrated. The results can be used by managers and...

Impact of delayed information in sub-second complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Zheng, Minzhang; Johnson Restrepo, D. Dylan; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

What happens when you slow down the delivery of information in large-scale complex systems that operate faster than the blink of an eye? This question just adopted immediate commercial, legal and political importance following U.S. regulators' decision to allow an intentional 350 microsecond delay to be added in the ultrafast network of financial exchanges. However there is still no scientific understanding available to policymakers of the potential system-wide impact of such delays. Here we take a first step in addressing this question using a minimal model of a population of competing, heterogeneous, adaptive agents which has previously been shown to produce similar statistical features to real markets. We find that while certain extreme system-level behaviors can be prevented by such delays, the duration of others is increased. This leads to a highly non-trivial relationship between delays and system-wide instabilities which warrants deeper empirical investigation. The generic nature of our model suggests there should be a fairly wide class of complex systems where such delay-driven extreme behaviors can arise, e.g. sub-second delays in brain function possibly impacting individuals' behavior, and sub-second delays in navigational systems potentially impacting the safety of driverless vehicles.

Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

PubMed

Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

2017-06-01

Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

The Development and Use of a Flight Optimization System Model of a C-130E Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desch, Jeremy D.

1995-01-01

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center conducts a variety of aircraft design and analyses studies. These studies include the prediction of characteristics of a particular conceptual design, analyses of designs that already exist, and assessments of the impact of technology on current and future aircraft. The FLight OPtimization System (FLOPS) is a tool used for aircraft systems analysis and design. A baseline input model of a Lockheed C-130E was generated for the Flight Optimization System. This FLOPS model can be used to conduct design-trade studies and technology impact assessments. The input model was generated using standard input data such as basic geometries and mission specifications. All of the other data needed to determine the airplane performance is computed internally by FLOPS. The model was then calibrated to reproduce the actual airplane performance from flight test data. This allows a systems analyzer to change a specific item of geometry or mission definition in the FLOPS input file and evaluate the resulting change in performance from the output file. The baseline model of the C-130E was used to analyze the effects of implementing upper wing surface blowing on the airplane. This involved removing the turboprop engines that were on the C-130E and replacing them with turbofan engines. An investigation of the improvements in airplane performance with the new engines could be conducted within the Flight Optimization System. Although a thorough analysis was not completed, the impact of this change on basic mission performance was investigated.

An overheight vehicle bridge collision monitoring system using piezoelectric transducers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, G.; Olmi, C.; Gu, H.

2007-04-01

With increasing traffic volume follows an increase in the number of overheight truck collisions with highway bridges. The detection of collision impact and evaluation of the impact level is a critical issue in the maintenance of a concrete bridge. In this paper, an overheight collision detection and evaluation system is developed for concrete bridge girders using piezoelectric transducers. An electric circuit is designed to detect the impact and to activate a digital camera to take photos of the offending truck. Impact tests and a health monitoring test were conducted on a model concrete bridge girder by using three piezoelectric transducers embedded before casting. From the experimental data of the impact test, it can be seen that there is a linear relation between the output of sensor energy and the impact energy. The health monitoring results show that the proposed damage index indicates the level of damage inside the model concrete bridge girder. The proposed overheight truck-bridge collision detection and evaluation system has the potential to be applied to the safety monitoring of highway bridges.

Impact of Increased Corn Production on Ground Water Quality and Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we use a complex coupled modeling system to assess the impacts of increased corn production on groundwater. In particular, we show how the models provide new information on the drivers of contamination in groundwater, and then relate pollutant concentration change...

Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality using two Models: HAWQS and US Basins

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydr...

Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport

EPA Science Inventory

Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also ...

Simulation of Hypervelocity Impact Effects on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Young-Keun; Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

Spacecraft operating in low earth orbit face a significant orbital debris impact hazard. Of particular concern, in the case of the Space Shuttle, are impacts on critical components of the thermal protection system. Recent research has formulated a new material model of reinforced carbon-carbon, for use in the analysis of hypervelocity impact effects on the Space Shuttle wing leading edge. The material model has been validated in simulations of published impact experiments and applied to model orbital debris impacts at velocities beyond the range of current experimental methods. The results suggest that momentum scaling may be used to extrapolate the available experimental data base, in order to predict the size of wing leading edge perforations at impact velocities as high as 13 km/s.

Modeling carbon dioxide, pH, and un-ionized ammonia relationships in serial reuse systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colt, J.; Watten, B.; Rust, M.

2009-01-01

In serial reuse systems, excretion of metabolic carbon dioxide has a significant impact on ambient pH, carbon dioxide, and un-ionized ammonia concentrations. This impact depends strongly on alkalinity, water flow rate, feeding rate, and loss of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A reduction in pH from metabolic carbon dioxide can significantly reduce the un-ionized ammonia concentration and increase the carbon dioxide concentrations compared to those parameters computed from influent pH. The ability to accurately predict pH in serial reuse systems is critical to their design and effective operation. A trial and error solution to the alkalinity-pH system was used to estimate important water quality parameters in serial reuse systems. Transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide across the air-water interface, at overflow weirs, and impacts of substrate-attached algae and suspended bacteria were modeled. Gas transfer at the weirs was much greater than transfer across the air-water boundary. This simulation model can rapidly estimate influent and effluent concentrations of dissolved oxygen, carbon dioxide, and un-ionized ammonia as a function of water temperature, elevation, water flow, and weir type. The accuracy of the estimates strongly depends on assumed pollutional loading rates and gas transfer at the weirs. The current simulation model is based on mean daily loading rates; the impacts of daily variation loading rates are discussed. Copies of the source code and executable program are available free of charge.

Modeling Carbon Dioxide, pH and Un-Ionized Ammonia Relationships in Serial Reuse Systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watten, Barnaby J.; Rust, Michael; Colt, John

2009-01-01

In serial reuse systems, excretion of metabolic carbon dioxide has a significant impact on ambient pH, carbon dioxide, and un-ionized ammonia concentrations. This impact depends strongly on alkalinity, water flow rate, feeding rate, and loss of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A reduction in pH from metabolic carbon dioxide can significantly reduce the un-ionized ammonia concentration and increase the carbon dioxide concentrations compared to those parameters computed from influent pH. The ability to accurately predict pH in serial reuse systems is critical to their design and effective operation. A trial and error solution to the alkalinity–pH system was used to estimate important water quality parameters in serial reuse systems. Transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide across the air–water interface, at overflow weirs, and impacts of substrate-attached algae and suspended bacteria were modeled. Gas transfer at the weirs was much greater than transfer across the air–water boundary. This simulation model can rapidly estimate influent and effluent concentrations of dissolved oxygen, carbon dioxide, and un-ionized ammonia as a function of water temperature, elevation, water flow, and weir type. The accuracy of the estimates strongly depends on assumed pollutional loading rates and gas transfer at the weirs. The current simulation model is based on mean daily loading rates; the impacts of daily variation loading rates are discussed. Copies of the source code and executable program are available free of charge.

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; McPherson, Madeleine

In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment,more » backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.« less

Ballistic Performance of Porous-Ceramic, Thermal Protection Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, J. E.; Bohl, W. E.; Christiansen, Eric C.; Davis, B. A.; Foreman, C. D.

2011-01-01

Porous-ceramic, thermal protection systems are used heavily in current reentry vehicles like the Orbiter, and they are currently being proposed for the next generation of US manned spacecraft, Orion. These systems insulate reentry critical components of a spacecraft against the intense thermal environments of atmospheric reentry. Additionally, these materials are highly exposed to space environment hazards like solid particle impacts. This paper discusses impact studies up to 10 km/s on 8 lb/cu ft alumina-fiber-enhanced-thermal-barrier (AETB8) tiles coated with a toughened-unipiece-fibrous-insulation/ reaction-cured-glass layer (TUFI/RCG). A semi-empirical, first principals impact model that describes projectile dispersion is described that provides excellent agreement with observations over a broad range of impact velocities, obliquities and projectile materials. Model extensions to look at the implications of greater than 10 GPa equation of state is also discussed. Predicted penetration probabilities for a vehicle visiting the International Space Station is 60% lower for orbital debris and 95% lower for meteoroids with this model compared to an energy scaled approach.

Coupled socioeconomic-crop modelling for the participatory local analysis of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Adamowski, J. F.; Wang, L. Y.; Rojas, M.; Carrera, J.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

The modelling of the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires the inclusion of socio-economic factors. However, while cropping models and economic models of agricultural systems are common, dynamically coupled socio-economic-biophysical models have not received as much success. A promising methodology for modelling the socioeconomic aspects of coupled natural-human systems is participatory system dynamics modelling, in which stakeholders develop mental maps of the socio-economic system that are then turned into quantified simulation models. This methodology has been successful in the water resources management field. However, while the stocks and flows of water resources have also been represented within the system dynamics modelling framework and thus coupled to the socioeconomic portion of the model, cropping models are ill-suited for such reformulation. In addition, most of these system dynamics models were developed without stakeholder input, limiting the scope for the adoption and implementation of their results. We therefore propose a new methodology for the analysis of climate change variability on agroecosystems which uses dynamically coupled system dynamics (socio-economic) and biophysical (cropping) models to represent both physical and socioeconomic aspects of the agricultural system, using two case studies (intensive market-based agricultural development versus subsistence crop-based development) from rural Guatemala. The system dynamics model component is developed with relevant governmental and NGO stakeholders from rural and agricultural development in the case study regions and includes such processes as education, poverty and food security. Common variables with the cropping models (yield and agricultural management choices) are then used to dynamically couple the two models together, allowing for the analysis of the agroeconomic system's response to and resilience against various climatic and socioeconomic shocks.

Lifecycle assessment of microalgae to biofuel: Comparison of thermochemical processing pathways

DOE PAGES

Bennion, Edward P.; Ginosar, Daniel M.; Moses, John; ...

2015-01-16

Microalgae are currently being investigated as a renewable transportation fuel feedstock based on various advantages that include high annual yields, utilization of poor quality land, does not compete with food, and can be integrated with various waste streams. This study focuses on directly assessing the impact of two different thermochemical conversion technologies on the microalgae to biofuel process through life cycle assessment. A system boundary of a “well to pump” (WTP) is defined and includes sub-process models of the growth, dewatering, thermochemical bio-oil recovery, bio-oil stabilization, conversion to renewable diesel, and transport to the pump. Models were validated with experimentalmore » and literature data and are representative of an industrial-scale microalgae to biofuel process. Two different thermochemical bio-oil conversion systems are modeled and compared on a systems level, hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and pyrolysis. The environmental impact of the two pathways were quantified on the metrics of net energy ratio (NER), defined here as energy consumed over energy produced, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results for WTP biofuel production through the HTL pathway were determined to be 1.23 for the NER and GHG emissions of -11.4 g CO 2-eq (MJ renewable diesel) -1. WTP biofuel production through the pyrolysis pathway results in a NER of 2.27 and GHG emissions of 210 g CO2 eq (MJ renewable diesel)-1. The large environmental impact associated with the pyrolysis pathway is attributed to feedstock drying requirements and combustion of co-products to improve system energetics. Discussion focuses on a detailed breakdown of the overall process energetics and GHGs, impact of modeling at laboratory- scale compared to industrial-scale, environmental impact sensitivity to engineering systems input parameters for future focused research and development and a comparison of results to literature.« less

Life cycle assessment of microalgae to biofuel: Thermochemical processing through hydrothermal liquefaction or pyrolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennion, Edward P.

Microalgae are currently being investigated as a renewable transportation fuel feedstock based on various advantages that include high annual yields, utilization of poor quality land, does not compete with food, and can be integrated with various waste streams. This study focuses on directly assessing the impact of two different thermochemical conversion technologies on the microalgae-to-biofuel process through life cycle assessment. A system boundary of a "well to pump" (WTP) is defined and includes sub-process models of the growth, dewatering, thermochemical bio-oil recovery, bio-oil stabilization, conversion to renewable diesel, and transport to the pump. Models were validated with experimental and literature data and are representative of an industrial-scale microalgae-to-biofuel process. Two different thermochemical bio-oil conversion systems are modeled and compared on a systems level, hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and pyrolysis. The environmental impact of the two pathways were quantified on the metrics of net energy ratio (NER), defined here as energy consumed over energy produced, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results for WTP biofuel production through the HTL pathway were determined to be 1.23 for the NER and GHG emissions of -11.4 g CO2 eq (MJ renewable diesel)-1. WTP biofuel production through the pyrolysis pathway results in a NER of 2.27 and GHG emissions of 210 g CO2 eq (MJ renewable diesel)-1. The large environmental impact associated with the pyrolysis pathway is attributed to feedstock drying requirements and combustion of co-products to improve system energetics. Discussion focuses on a detailed breakdown of the overall process energetics and GHGs, impact of modeling at laboratory-scale compared to industrial-scale, environmental impact sensitivity to engineering systems input parameters for future focused research and development, and a comparison of results to literature.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

2017-12-01

Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

EPA Science Inventory

Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this stud...

Economic Impact Forecast System (EIFS). Version 2.0. Users Manual. Supplement II. European Economic Impact Forecast System (EEIFS), Phase 1, (FRG/EIFS Pilot Model).

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

Chmpip. tL : Construction engineering Research Laboratory ; available from NTIS. 1982. 71 p. (Technical report / Construction Engineering Researsh ...AD-Al17 661 CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING RESEARCH LAB (ARMY) CHAMPAIGN IL F/G 5/3 ECONOMIC IMPACT FORECAST SYSTEM (EIFS). VERSION 2.0. USERS MANU--ETC(u...CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY 4A762720A896-C-004 P.O. BOX 4005, CHAMPAIGN, IL 61820 I. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS It. REPORT

Impacts of bromine and iodine chemistry on tropospheric OH and HO2: comparing observations with box and global model perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Daniel; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J.; Vaughan, Stewart; Ingham, Trevor; Whalley, Lisa K.; Edwards, Peter M.; Read, Katie A.; Lee, James D.; Moller, Sarah J.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Heard, Dwayne E.

2018-03-01

The chemistry of the halogen species bromine and iodine has a range of impacts on tropospheric composition, and can affect oxidising capacity in a number of ways. However, recent studies disagree on the overall sign of the impacts of halogens on the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. We present simulations of OH and HO2 radicals for comparison with observations made in the remote tropical ocean boundary layer during the Seasonal Oxidant Study at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in 2009. We use both a constrained box model, using detailed chemistry derived from the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), and the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model GEOS-Chem. Both model approaches reproduce the diurnal trends in OH and HO2. Absolute observed concentrations are well reproduced by the box model but are overpredicted by the global model, potentially owing to incomplete consideration of oceanic sourced radical sinks. The two models, however, differ in the impacts of halogen chemistry. In the box model, halogen chemistry acts to increase OH concentrations (by 9.8 % at midday at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory), while the global model exhibits a small increase in OH at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (by 0.6 % at midday) but overall shows a decrease in the global annual mass-weighted mean OH of 4.5 %. These differences reflect the variety of timescales through which the halogens impact the chemical system. On short timescales, photolysis of HOBr and HOI, produced by reactions of HO2 with BrO and IO, respectively, increases the OH concentration. On longer timescales, halogen-catalysed ozone destruction cycles lead to lower primary production of OH radicals through ozone photolysis, and thus to lower OH concentrations. The global model includes more of the longer timescale responses than the constrained box model, and overall the global impact of the longer timescale response (reduced primary production due to lower O3 concentrations) overwhelms the shorter timescale response (enhanced cycling from HO2 to OH), and thus the global OH concentration decreases. The Earth system contains many such responses on a large range of timescales. This work highlights the care that needs to be taken to understand the full impact of any one process on the system as a whole.

Impact of two-way ocean atmosphere coupling on precipitation forecast for the coastal Adriatic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerkol, Peter; Cedilnik, Jure; Fettich, Anja; Licer, Matjaz; Strajnar, Benedikt; Jerman, Jure

2017-04-01

A two-way coupled ocean and atmosphere modeling system has been developed at Slovenian Environment Agency and the National Institute of Biology (Ličer at al., 2016). The system comprises 4.4 km ALADIN/ALARO limited-area numerical weather prediction model and Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Adriatic sea and uses Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) as ocean component outside the POM model domain. The heat and momentum fluxes between sea surface and atmosphere as estimated by ALADIN model are transferred into POM every model time stamp, and sea surface temperature (SST) is returned from POM to ALADIN. A positive impact of such a coupling system with respect to one-way coupling was demonstrated mainly for sea surface variables. In this contribution we study the impact on atmospheric variables, mainly precipitation. Unlike in the previous work where the atmospheric part of the system was reinitialized every day from external (non-coupled) data assimilation cycle, we implement the two-way coupling in the data assimilation cycle for ALADIN. Rather than running long-term simulations which would presumably lack observational information given no data assimilation for the ocean component, we focus on several precipitation events and assess performance of the atmospheric model by running the coupled system for a short warm-up periods beforehand the events. We evaluate several approaches to applying the one- or two-way coupling (in the warm-up period, during the main forecast, or both) and several approaches to using SST information in ALADIN in the one-way coupled mode (POM, MFS, global atmospheric model). Preliminary results suggest that it is important that two-way coupling is applied not only during the long term (e.g. 72 h) forecast but also already in the data assimilation cycle prior to event.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Simulation of car movement along circular path

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotov, A. I.; Tikhov-Tinnikov, D. A.; Ovchinnikova, N. I.; Lysenko, A. V.

2017-10-01

Under operating conditions, suspension system performance changes which negatively affects vehicle stability and handling. The paper aims to simulate the impact of changes in suspension system performance on vehicle stability and handling. Methods. The paper describes monitoring of suspension system performance, testing of vehicle stability and handling, analyzes methods of suspension system performance monitoring under operating conditions. The mathematical model of a car movement along a circular path was developed. Mathematical tools describing a circular movement of a vehicle along a horizontal road were developed. Turning car movements were simulated. Calculation and experiment results were compared. Simulation proves the applicability of a mathematical model for assessment of the impact of suspension system performance on vehicle stability and handling.

System Modeling of Lunar Oxygen Production: Mass and Power Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steffen, Christopher J.; Freeh, Joshua E.; Linne, Diane L.; Faykus, Eric W.; Gallo, Christopher A.; Green, Robert D.

2007-01-01

A systems analysis tool for estimating the mass and power requirements for a lunar oxygen production facility is introduced. The individual modeling components involve the chemical processing and cryogenic storage subsystems needed to process a beneficiated regolith stream into liquid oxygen via ilmenite reduction. The power can be supplied from one of six different fission reactor-converter systems. A baseline system analysis, capable of producing 15 metric tons of oxygen per annum, is presented. The influence of reactor-converter choice was seen to have a small but measurable impact on the system configuration and performance. Finally, the mission concept of operations can have a substantial impact upon individual component size and power requirements.

Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

2010-01-01

A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

Albedo impact on the suitability of biochar systems to mitigate global warming.

PubMed

Meyer, Sebastian; Bright, Ryan M; Fischer, Daniel; Schulz, Hardy; Glaser, Bruno

2012-11-20

Biochar application to agricultural soils can change the surface albedo which could counteract the climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems. However, the size of this impact has not yet been quantified. Based on empirical albedo measurements and literature data of arable soils mixed with biochar, a model for annual vegetation cover development based on satellite data and an assessment of the annual development of surface humidity, an average mean annual albedo reduction of 0.05 has been calculated for applying 30-32 Mg ha(-1) biochar on a test field near Bayreuth, Germany. The impact of biochar production and application on the carbon cycle and on the soil albedo was integrated into the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of a modeled pyrolysis based biochar system via the computation of global warming potential (GWP) characterization factors. The analysis resulted in a reduction of the overall climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems by 13-22% due to the albedo change as compared to an analysis which disregards the albedo effect. Comparing the use of the same quantity of biomass in a biochar system to a bioenergy district heating system which replaces natural gas combustion, bioenergy heating systems achieve 99-119% of the climate benefit of biochar systems according to the model calculation.

Mitigation of short-term disturbance negative impacts in the agent-based model of a production companies network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchuk, G. K.; Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Medvedeva, M. A.

2017-11-01

This article is devoted to the study of a supply chain disturbance impact on manufacturing volumes in a production system network. Each network agent's product can be used as a resource by other system agents (manufacturers). A supply chain disturbance can lead to operating cease of the entire network. Authors suggest using of short-term partial resources reservation to mitigate negative consequences of such disturbances. An agent-based model with a reservation algorithm compatible with strategies for resource procurement in terms of financial constraints was engineered. This model works in accordance with the static input-output Leontief 's model. The results can be used for choosing the ways of system's stability improving, and protecting it from various disturbances and imbalance.

Importance of biometrics to addressing vulnerabilities of the U.S. infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Craig M.; Hall, Nathaniel A.

2004-08-01

Human identification technologies are important threat countermeasures in minimizing select infrastructure vulnerabilities. Properly targeted countermeasures should be selected and integrated into an overall security solution based on disciplined analysis and modeling. Available data on infrastructure value, threat intelligence, and system vulnerabilities are carefully organized, analyzed and modeled. Prior to design and deployment of an effective countermeasure; the proper role and appropriateness of technology in addressing the overall set of vulnerabilities is established. Deployment of biometrics systems, as with other countermeasures, introduces potentially heightened vulnerabilities into the system. Heightened vulnerabilities may arise from both the newly introduced system complexities and an unfocused understanding of the set of vulnerabilities impacted by the new countermeasure. The countermeasure's own inherent vulnerabilities and those introduced by the system's integration with the existing system are analyzed and modeled to determine the overall vulnerability impact. The United States infrastructure is composed of government and private assets. The infrastructure is valued by their potential impact on several components: human physical safety, physical/information replacement/repair cost, potential contribution to future loss (criticality in weapons production), direct productivity output, national macro-economic output/productivity, and information integrity. These components must be considered in determining the overall impact of an infrastructure security breach. Cost/benefit analysis is then incorporated in the security technology deployment decision process. Overall security risks based on system vulnerabilities and threat intelligence determines areas of potential benefit. Biometric countermeasures are often considered when additional security at intended points of entry would minimize vulnerabilities.

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Annett, Martin S.; Horta, Lucas G.; Jackson, Karen E.; Polanco, Michael A.; Littell, Justin D.

2012-01-01

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

2016-12-01

This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution at the National Level using the EVA Model System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Jørgen; Silver, Jeremy David; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Geels, Camilla; Gross, Allan; Buus Hansen, Ayoe; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Brandt Hedegaard, Gitte; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten

2010-05-01

Air pollution has significant negative impacts on human health and well-being, which entail substantial economic consequences. We have developed an integrated model system, EVA (External Valuation of Air pollution), to assess health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources/sectors. The EVA system was initially developed to assess externalities from power production, but in this study it is extended to evaluate costs at the national level. The EVA system integrates a regional-scale atmospheric chemistry transport model (DEHM), address-level population data, exposure-response functions and monetary values applicable for Danish/European conditions. Traditionally, systems that assess economic costs of health impacts from air pollution assume linear approximations in the source-receptor relationships. However, atmospheric chemistry is non-linear and therefore the uncertainty involved in the linear assumption can be large. The EVA system has been developed to take into account the non-linear processes by using a comprehensive, state-of-the-art chemical transport model when calculating how specific changes to emissions affect air pollution levels and the subsequent impacts on human health and cost. Furthermore, we present a new "tagging" method, developed to examine how specific emission sources influence air pollution levels without assuming linearity of the non-linear behaviour of atmospheric chemistry. This method is more precise than the traditional approach based on taking the difference between two concentration fields. Using the EVA system, we have estimated the total external costs from the main emission sectors in Denmark, representing the ten major SNAP codes. Finally, we assess the impacts and external costs of emissions from international ship traffic around Denmark, since there is a high volume of ship traffic in the region.

Multibody dynamical modeling for spacecraft docking process with spring-damper buffering device: A new validation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneshjou, Kamran; Alibakhshi, Reza

2018-01-01

In the current manuscript, the process of spacecraft docking, as one of the main risky operations in an on-orbit servicing mission, is modeled based on unconstrained multibody dynamics. The spring-damper buffering device is utilized here in the docking probe-cone system for micro-satellites. Owing to the impact occurs inevitably during docking process and the motion characteristics of multibody systems are remarkably affected by this phenomenon, a continuous contact force model needs to be considered. Spring-damper buffering device, keeping the spacecraft stable in an orbit when impact occurs, connects a base (cylinder) inserted in the chaser satellite and the end of docking probe. Furthermore, by considering a revolute joint equipped with torsional shock absorber, between base and chaser satellite, the docking probe can experience both translational and rotational motions simultaneously. Although spacecraft docking process accompanied by the buffering mechanisms may be modeled by constrained multibody dynamics, this paper deals with a simple and efficient formulation to eliminate the surplus generalized coordinates and solve the impact docking problem based on unconstrained Lagrangian mechanics. By an example problem, first, model verification is accomplished by comparing the computed results with those recently reported in the literature. Second, according to a new alternative validation approach, which is based on constrained multibody problem, the accuracy of presented model can be also evaluated. This proposed verification approach can be applied to indirectly solve the constrained multibody problems by minimum required effort. The time history of impact force, the influence of system flexibility and physical interaction between shock absorber and penetration depth caused by impact are the issues followed in this paper. Third, the MATLAB/SIMULINK multibody dynamic analysis software will be applied to build impact docking model to validate computed results and then, investigate the trajectories of both satellites to take place the successful capture process.

Influence of impact speed on head and brain injury outcome in vulnerable road user impacts to the car hood.

PubMed

Fredriksson, Rikard; Zhang, Liying; Boström, Ola; Yang, King

2007-10-01

EuroNCAP and regulations in Europe and Japan evaluate the pedestrian protection performance of cars. The test methods are similar and they all have requirements for the passive protection of the hood area at a pedestrian to car impact speed of 40 km/h. In Europe, a proposal for a second phase of the regulation mandates a brake-assist system along with passive requirements. The system assists the driver in optimizing the braking performance during panic braking, resulting in activation only when the driver brakes sufficiently. In a European study this was estimated to occur in about 50% of pedestrian accidents. A future system for brake assistance will likely include automatic braking, in response to a pre-crash sensor, to avoid or mitigate injuries of vulnerable road users. An important question is whether these systems will provide sufficient protection, or if a parallel, passive pedestrian protection system will be necessary. This study investigated the influence of impact speed on head and brain injury risk, in impacts to the carhood. One car model was chosen and a rigid adjustable plate was mounted under the hood. Free-flying headform impacts were carried out at 20 and 30 km/h head impact velocities at different under-hood distances, 20 to 100 mm; and were compared to earlier tests at 40 km/h. The EEVC WG17 adult pedestrian headform was used for non-rotating tests and a Hybrid III adult 50th percentile head was used for rotational tests where linear and rotational acceleration was measured. Data from the rotational tests was used as input to a validated finite element model of the human head, the Wayne State University Head Injury Model (WSUHIM). The model was utilized to assess brain injury risk and potential injury mechanism in a pedestrian-hood impact. Although this study showed that it was not necessarily true that a lower HIC value reduced the risk for brain injury, it appeared, for the tested car model, under-hood distances of 60 mm in 20 km/h and 80 mm in 30 km/h reduced head injury values for both skull fractures and brain injuries. An earlier study showed that the corresponding value for a test speed of 40 km/h is 100 mm. A 10 km/h reduction in head impact velocity, as in automatic braking, allowed 20 mm less under-hood clearance with maintained head protection of the vulnerable road user.

Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling from Regional to Global Earth System Models for High-Impact Extreme Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.; Curcic, M.

2017-12-01

The need for acurrate and integrated impact forecasts of extreme wind, rain, waves, and storm surge is growing as coastal population and built environment expand worldwide. A key limiting factor in forecasting impacts of extreme weather events associated with tropical cycle and winter storms is fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model interface with explicit momentum and energy exchange. It is not only critical for accurate prediction of storm intensity, but also provides coherent wind, rian, ocean waves and currents forecasts for forcing for storm surge. The Unified Wave INterface (UWIN) has been developed for coupling of the atmosphere-wave-ocean models. UWIN couples the atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). It is a physically based and computationally efficient coupling sytem that is flexible to use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation global Earth system prediction mdoels. This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It has been used and extensively tested and verified in regional coupled model forecasts of tropical cycles and winter storms (Chen and Curcic 2016, Curcic et al. 2016, and Judt et al. 2016). We will present 1) an overview of UWIN and its applications in fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions of hurricanes and coastal winter storms, and 2) implenmentation of UWIN in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5.

System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Robert W.; O'Neil, Daniel A.

2006-01-01

Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF FIRE FLOWS ON DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM WATER QUALITY, DESIGN AND OPERATION

EPA Science Inventory

In most water distribution systems, a significant amount of the piping and storage capacity is used to provide adequate quantities of water during fire conditions. This increased capacity results in higher capital costs and potential negative impacts on water quality due to longe...

Predictors of Interpersonal Trust in Virtual Distributed Teams

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

understand systems that are very complex in nature . Such understanding is essential to facilitate building or maintaining operators’ mental models of the...a significant impact on overall system performance. Specifically, the level of automation that combined human generation of options with computer...and/or computer servers had a significant impact on automated system performance. Additionally, Parasuraman, Sheridan, & Wickens (2000) proposed

integrated Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andew; Di Vittorio, Alan; Collins, William

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems.« less

Modeling the impact of tuberculosis interventions on epidemiologic outcomes and health system costs.

PubMed

Oxlade, Olivia; Piatek, Amy; Vincent, Cheri; Menzies, Dick

2015-02-13

Tuberculosis (TB) programs must invest in a variety of TB specific activities in order to reach ambitious global targets. Uncertainty exists surrounding the potential impact of each of these activities. The objective of our study was to model different interventions and quantify their impact on epidemiologic outcomes and costs from the health system perspective. Decision analysis was used to define the TB patient trajectory within the health system of three different countries. We considered up to seven different interventions that could affect either the natural history of TB, or patient trajectories within the health system. The expected impact of interventions were derived from published studies where possible. Epidemiologic outcomes and associated health system costs were projected for each scenario. With no specific intervention, TB related death rates are high and less than 10% of the population starts on correct treatment. Interventions that either prevent cases or affect all patients with TB disease early in their trajectory are expected to have the biggest impact, regardless of underlying epidemiologic characteristics of the setting. In settings with a private sector, improving diagnosis and appropriate treatment across all sectors is expected to have a major impact on outcomes. In all settings, the greatest benefit will come from early diagnosis of all forms of TB. Once this has been achieved more specific interventions, such as those targeting HIV, drug resistance or the private sector can be integrated to increase impact.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Mathematical Models to Determine Stable Behavior of Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumin, V. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Smolentseva, T. E.

2018-05-01

The paper analyzes a possibility to predict functioning of a complex dynamic system with a significant amount of circulating information and a large number of random factors impacting its functioning. Functioning of the complex dynamic system is described as a chaotic state, self-organized criticality and bifurcation. This problem may be resolved by modeling such systems as dynamic ones, without applying stochastic models and taking into account strange attractors.

Vulnerability of Space Station Freedom Modules: A Study of the Effects of Module Perforation on Crew and Equipment. Volume 2; Analytical Modeling of Internal Debris Cloud Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Davenport, Quint

1995-01-01

In this part of the report, a first-principles based model is developed to predict the overpressure and temperature effects of a perforating orbital debris particle impact within a pressurized habitable module. While the effects of a perforating debris particles on crew and equipment can be severe, only a limited number of empirical studies focusing on space vehicles have been performed to date. Traditionally, crew loss or incapacitation due to a perforating impact has primarily been of interest to military organizations and as such have focused on military vehicles and systems. The module wall considered in this study is initially assumed to be a standard Whippletype dual-wall system in which the outer wall protects the module and its inhabitants by disrupting impacting particles. The model is developed in a way such that it sequentially characterizes the phenomena comprising the impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the inner wall, the creation and motion of the debris cloud that enters the module interior, and the effects of the debris cloud within the module on module pressure and temperature levels. This is accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory.

A resilience-based model for performance evaluation of information systems: the case of a gas company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azadeh, A.; Salehi, V.; Salehi, R.

2017-10-01

Information systems (IS) are strongly influenced by changes in new technology and should react swiftly in response to external conditions. Resilience engineering is a new method that can enable these systems to absorb changes. In this study, a new framework is presented for performance evaluation of IS that includes DeLone and McLean's factors of success in addition to resilience. Hence, this study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of resilience on IS by the proposed model in Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company via the data obtained from questionnaires and Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (FDEA) approach. First, FDEA model with α-cut = 0.05 was identified as the most suitable model to this application by performing all Banker, Charnes and Cooper and Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes models of and FDEA and selecting the appropriate model based on maximum mean efficiency. Then, the factors were ranked based on the results of sensitivity analysis, which showed resilience had a significantly higher impact on the proposed model relative to other factors. The results of this study were then verified by conducting the related ANOVA test. This is the first study that examines the impact of resilience on IS by statistical and mathematical approaches.

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

2016-01-01

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

The climate4impact portal: bridging CMIP5 data to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Barring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2013-04-01

Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNRS-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 project IS-ENES (http://is.enes.org), which supports the European climate modeling infrastructure, in the work package 'Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community'. The aim of this work package is to enhance the use of climate model data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in a prototype portal, the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities, that can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The portal is connected to all Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and later from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of all major climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. The current portal is a Prototype. It is built to explore state-of-art technologies to provide improved access to climate model data. The prototype will be evaluated and is the basis for development of an operational service. The portal and services provided will be sustained and supported during the development of these operational services (2013-2016) in the second phase of the FP7 IS-ENES project, ISENES2. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: • Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The portal provides access to several distributed archives, most importantly the ESGF nodes. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to let these websites and systems work together. • Discovery: Intelligent search based on e.g. variable name, model, institute. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). • Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs • Visualization: Visualize any data directly on a map (ADAGUC Map services). • Transformation: Transform your data into other formats, perform basic calculations and extractions

ESEA Title I Evaluation and Reporting System: User's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tallmadge, G. Kasten; Wood, Christine T.

This guidebook concentrates primarily on describing the impact-assessment component of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) Title I evaluation and reporting system for users of the system. Three general evaluation models are presented, along with implementation information for each. The first model, a norm-referenced design, may be…

The impact of snow and glaciers on meteorological variables in the Khumbu Valley, Nepalese Himalaya.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, E.; Orr, A.; Willis, I.

2017-12-01

Previous observational studies have suggested that snow and glaciers have a big impact on local meteorological variables in the Himalayas, in particular affecting near surface temperature and the localised wind system. Understanding the impact of changing surface conditions on these systems and is crucial in improving future predictions of glacier melt and precipitation in the Himalayas. However, the mechanisms that control the local meteorology remain poorly understood due to the lack of in-situ data and detailed modelling studies. To investigate these mechanisms, we run the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at kilometre scale resolution for one month during the monsoon over the Khumbu Valley, Nepalese Himalaya. The model is run with and without snow and glacier coverage at the surface. The impact of adding debris cover into the model is also investigated. In the control run with snow and ice, thermally-driven near-surface winds are found to travel up valley during the day except over the glacier slopes. When the snow and ice is removed from the model, the up valley winds extend over the entire slope. Removal of the snow and ice also results in changes to cloud cover and hydrometeors. A momentum budget approach is used to fully understand the mechanisms that maintain the localised wind system, e.g. to determine the contributions from local forcing or synoptic forcing.

Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.

2012-12-01

Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.

The exploration of trophic structure modeling using mass balance Ecopath model of Tangerang coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi, N. N.; Kamal, M.; Wardiatno, Y.; Rozi

2018-04-01

Ecopath model approach was used to describe trophic interaction, energy flows and ecosystem condition of Tangerang coastal waters. This model consists of 42 ecological groups, of which 41 are living groups and one is a detritus group. Trophic levels of these groups vary between 1.0 (for primary producers and detritus) to 4.03 (for tetraodontidae). Groups with trophic levels 2≤TL<3 and 3≤TL<4 have a range of ecotropic efficiency from 0 to 0.9719 and 0 to 0.7520 respectively.The Mean transfer efficiency is 9.43% for phytoplankton and 3.39% for detritus. The Mixed trophic impact analysis indicates that phytoplankton havea positive impact on the majority of pelagic fish, while detritus has a positive impact on the majority of demersal fish. Leiognathidae havea negative impact on phytoplankton, zooplankton and several other groups. System omnivory index for this ecosystem is 0.151. System primary production/respiration (P/R) ratio of Tangerang coastal waters is 1.505. This coastal ecosystem is an immatureecosystem because it hasdegraded. Pedigree index for this model is 0.57. This model describes ecosystem condition affected by overfishing and antropogenic activities. Therefore, through Ecopath model we provide some suggestions about the ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Life-cycle thinking and the LEED rating system: global perspective on building energy use and environmental impacts.

PubMed

Al-Ghamdi, Sami G; Bilec, Melissa M

2015-04-07

This research investigates the relationship between energy use, geographic location, life cycle environmental impacts, and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). The researchers studied worldwide variations in building energy use and associated life cycle impacts in relation to the LEED rating systems. A Building Information Modeling (BIM) of a reference 43,000 ft(2) office building was developed and situated in 400 locations worldwide while making relevant changes to the energy model to meet reference codes, such as ASHRAE 90.1. Then life cycle environmental and human health impacts from the buildings' energy consumption were calculated. The results revealed considerable variations between sites in the U.S. and international locations (ranging from 394 ton CO2 equiv to 911 ton CO2 equiv, respectively). The variations indicate that location specific results, when paired with life cycle assessment, can be an effective means to achieve a better understanding of possible adverse environmental impacts as a result of building energy consumption in the context of green building rating systems. Looking at these factors in combination and using a systems approach may allow rating systems like LEED to continue to drive market transformation toward sustainable development, while taking into consideration both energy sources and building efficiency.

1988 Revisions to the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System

Treesearch

Robert E. Burgan

1988-01-01

The 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System does not work well in the humid environment of the Eastern United States. System modifications to correct problems and their operational impact on System users are described. A new set of 20 fuel models is defined and compared graphically with the 1978 fuel models. Technical documentation of System changes is provided.

Qualitative modelling of gold mine impacts on Lihir Island's socioeconomic system and reef-edge fish community.

PubMed

Dambacher, Jeffrey M; Brewer, David T; Dennis, Darren M; Macintyre, Martha; Foale, Simon

2007-01-15

Inhabitants of Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, have traditionally relied on reef fishing and rotational farming of slash-burn forest plots for a subsistence diet. However, a new gold mine has introduced a cash economy to the island's socioeconomic system and impacted the fringing coral reef through sedimentation from the near-shore dumping of mine wastes. Studies of the Lihirian people have documented changes in population size, local customs, health, education, and land use; studies of the reef have documented impacts to fish populations in mine affected sites. Indirect effects from these impacts are complex and indecipherable when viewed only from isolated studies. Here, we use qualitative modelling to synthesize the social and biological research programs in order to understand the interaction of the human and ecological systems. Initial modelling results appear to be consistent with differences in fish and macroalgae populations in sites with and without coral degradation due to sedimentation. A greater cash flow from mine expansion is predicted to increase the human population, the intensity of the artisanal fishery, and the rate of sewage production and land clearing. Modelling results are being used to guide ongoing research projects, such as monitoring fish populations and artisanal catch and patterns and intensity of land clearing.

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater-surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity.

The potential impact of hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; Lamarque, J. F.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

2009-04-01

Energy models show very different trajectories for future energy systems (partly as function of future climate policy). One possible option is a transition towards a hydrogen-based energy system. The potential impact of such hydrogen economy on atmospheric emissions is highly uncertain. On the one hand, application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of local air pollutants, like SOx and NOx. On the other hand, emissions of hydrogen from system leakages are expected to change the atmospheric concentrations and behaviour (see also Price et al., 2007; Sanderson et al., 2003; Schultz et al., 2003; Tromp et al., 2003). The uncertainty arises from several sources: the expected use of hydrogen, the intensity of leakages and emissions, and the atmospheric chemical behaviour of hydrogen. Existing studies to the potential impacts of a hydrogen economy on the atmosphere mostly use hydrogen emission scenarios that are based on simple assumptions. This research combines two different modelling efforts to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. First, the potential role of hydrogen in the global energy system and the related emissions of hydrogen and other air pollutants are derived from the global energy system simulation model TIMER (van Vuuren, 2007). A set of dedicated scenarios on hydrogen technology development explores the most pessimistic and optimistic cases for hydrogen deployment (van Ruijven et al., 2008; van Ruijven et al., 2007). These scenarios are combined with different assumptions on hydrogen emission factors. Second, the emissions from the TIMER model are linked to the NCAR atmospheric model (Lamarque et al., 2005; Lamarque et al., 2008), in order to determine the impacts on atmospheric chemistry. By combining an energy system model and an atmospheric model, we are able to consistently explore the boundaries of both hydrogen use, emissions and impacts on atmospheric chemistry. References: Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T., Hess, P. G., Collins, W. D., Emmons, L. K., Ginoux, P., Luo, C. and Tie, X. X. (2005). "Response of a coupled chemistry-climate model to changes in aerosol emissions: Global impact on the hydrological cycle and the tropospheric burdens of OH, ozone and NOx." Geophysical Research Letters 32(16). Lamarque, J.-F., Kinnison, D. E., Hess, P. G. and Vitt, F. (2008). "Simulated lower stratospheric trends between 1970 and 2005: identifying the role of climate and composition changes." Journal of Geophysical Research 113(D12301). Price, H., Jaegle, L., Rice, A., Quay, P., Novelli, P. C. and Gammon, R. (2007). "Global budget of molecular hydrogen and its deuterium content: constraints from ground station, cruise, and aircraft observations." Journal of Geophysical Research 112(D22108). Sanderson, M. G., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G. and Johnson, C. E. (2003). "Simulation of Global Hydrogen Levels Using a Lagrangian Three-Dimensional Model." Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 46(1): 15-28. Schultz, M. G., Diehl, T., Brasseur, G. P. and Zittel, W. (2003). "Air Pollution and Climate-Forcing Impacts of a Global Hydrogen Economy." Science 302(5645): 624-627. Tromp, T. K., Shia, R. L., Allen, M., Eiler, J. M. and Yung, Y. L. (2003). "Potential environmental impact of a hydrogen economy on the stratosphere." Science 300(5626): 1740-1742. van Ruijven, B., Hari, L., van Vuuren, D. P. and de Vries, B. (2008). "The potential role of hydrogen in India and Western Europe." Energy Policy 36(5): 1649-1665. van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P. and de Vries, B. (2007). "The potential role of hydrogen in energy systems with and without climate policy." International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 32(12): 1655-1672. van Vuuren, D. P. (2007). Energy systems and climate policy. Dept. of Science, Technology and Society, Faculty of Science. Utrecht, Utrecht University: 326.

Three-dimensional modelling of leachate recirculation using vertical wells in bioreactor landfills.

PubMed

Feng, Shi-Jin; Chen, Zheng-Wei; Cao, Ben-Yi

2016-12-01

Bioreactor landfills use leachate recirculation to enhance the biodegradation of municipal solid waste and accelerate landfill stabilisation, which can provide significant environmental and economic benefits. Vertical wells are operated as a major method for leachate recirculation systems. The objectives of this article are to analyse the leachate migration in bioreactor landfills using vertical wells and to offer theoretical basis for the design of leachate recirculation systems. A three-dimensional numerical model was built using FLAC-3D, and this model can consider the saturated and unsaturated flow of leachate within anisotropic waste to reflect the actual conditions. First, main influence factors of leachate migration were analysed, including the vertical well height, hydraulic conductivity, and anisotropic coefficient, in a single-well recirculation system. Then, the effects of different configurations of a group-well system were studied and the optimal well spacing was obtained. Some key design parameters (e.g. the recirculation flow rate, volume of impact zone, radius of impact zone and time to reach steady state) were also evaluated. The results show that the hydraulic conductivity has a great impact on the optimal height of vertical wells and uniform configuration is the best option in terms of both volume of impact zone and time to reach steady state. © The Author(s) 2016.

Impacts of Base-Case and Post-Contingency Constraint Relaxations on Static and Dynamic Operational Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salloum, Ahmed

Constraint relaxation by definition means that certain security, operational, or financial constraints are allowed to be violated in the energy market model for a predetermined penalty price. System operators utilize this mechanism in an effort to impose a price-cap on shadow prices throughout the market. In addition, constraint relaxations can serve as corrective approximations that help in reducing the occurrence of infeasible or extreme solutions in the day-ahead markets. This work aims to capture the impact constraint relaxations have on system operational security. Moreover, this analysis also provides a better understanding of the correlation between DC market models and AC real-time systems and analyzes how relaxations in market models propagate to real-time systems. This information can be used not only to assess the criticality of constraint relaxations, but also as a basis for determining penalty prices more accurately. Constraint relaxations practice was replicated in this work using a test case and a real-life large-scale system, while capturing both energy market aspects and AC real-time system performance. System performance investigation included static and dynamic security analysis for base-case and post-contingency operating conditions. PJM peak hour loads were dynamically modeled in order to capture delayed voltage recovery and sustained depressed voltage profiles as a result of reactive power deficiency caused by constraint relaxations. Moreover, impacts of constraint relaxations on operational system security were investigated when risk based penalty prices are used. Transmission lines in the PJM system were categorized according to their risk index and each category was as-signed a different penalty price accordingly in order to avoid real-time overloads on high risk lines. This work also extends the investigation of constraint relaxations to post-contingency relaxations, where emergency limits are allowed to be relaxed in energy market models. Various scenarios were investigated to capture and compare between the impacts of base-case and post-contingency relaxations on real-time system performance, including the presence of both relaxations simultaneously. The effect of penalty prices on the number and magnitude of relaxations was investigated as well.

Occupant thorax response variations due to arm position and restraint systems in side impact crash scenarios.

PubMed

Gierczycka, Donata; Cronin, Duane S

2017-09-01

Recent epidemiological studies have identified that thoracic side airbags may vary in efficacy to reduce injury severity in side impact crash scenarios, while previous experimental and epidemiological studies have presented contrasting results. This study aimed to quantify the variations in occupant response in side impact conditions using a human body computational model integrated with a full vehicle model. The model was analyzed for a Moving Deformable Barrier side impact at 61km/h to assess two pre-crash arm positions, the incorporation of a seatbelt, and a thorax air bag on thorax response. The occupant response was evaluated using chest compression, the viscous criterion and thoracic spinal curvature. The arm position accounted for largest changes in the thorax response (106%) compared to the presence of the airbag and seatbelt systems (75%). It was also noted that the results were dependant on the method and location of thorax response measurement and this should be investigated further. Assessment using lateral displacement of the thoracic spine correlated positively with chest compression and Viscous Criterion, with the benefit of evaluating whole thorax response and provides a useful metric to compare occupant response for different side impact safety systems. The thoracic side airbag was found to increase the chest compression for the driving arm position (+70%), and reduced the injury metrics for the vertical arm position (-17%). This study demonstrated the importance of occupant arm position on variability in thoracic response, and provides insight for future design and optimization of side impact safety systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

2018-03-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

Climate Variability over India and Bangladesh from the Perturbed UK Met Office Hadley Model: Impacts on Flow and Nutrient Fluxes in the Ganges Delta System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, P. G.; Caesar, J.; Crossman, J.; Barbour, E.; Ledesma, J.; Futter, M. N.

2015-12-01

A semi-distributed flow and water quality model (INCA- Integrated Catchments Model) has been set up for the whole of the Ganges- Brahmaputra- Meghna (GBM) River system in India and Bangladesh. These massive rivers transport large fluxes of water and nutrients into the Bay of Bengal via the GBM Delta system in Bangladesh. Future climate change will impact these fluxes with changing rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficits being altered in the catchment systems. In this study the INCA model has been used to assess potential impacts of climate change using the UK Met Office Hadley Centre GCM model linked to a regionally coupled model of South East Asia, covering India and Bangladesh. The Hadley Centre model has been pururbed by varying the parameters in the model to generate 17 realisations of future climates. Some of these reflect expected change but others capture the more extreme potential behaviour of future climate conditions. The 17 realisations have been used to drive the INCA Flow and Nitrogen model inorder to generate downstream times series of hydrology and nitrate- nitrogen. The variability of the climates on these fluxes are investigated and and their likley impact on the Bay of Begal Delta considered. Results indicate a slight shift in the monsoon season with increased wet season flows and increased temperatures which alter nutrient fluxes. Societal Importance to Stakeholders The GBM Delta supports one of the most densely populated regions of people living in poverty, who rely on ecosystem services provided by the Delta for survival. These ecosystem services are dependent upon fluxes of water and nutrients. Freshwater for urban, agriculture, and aquaculture requirements are essential to livelihoods. Nutrient loads stimulate estuarine ecosystems, supporting fishing stocks, which contribute significantly the economy of Bangladesh. Thus the societal importance of upstream climate driven change change in Bangladesh are very significant to many stakeholders in Bangladesh at the local, regional and national levels.

Impact of Nonlinearity of The Contact Layer Between Elements Joined in a Multi-Bolted System on Its Preload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grzejda, R.

2017-12-01

The paper deals with modelling and calculations of asymmetrical multi-bolted joints at the assembly stage. The physical model of the joint is based on a system composed of four subsystems, which are: a couple of joined elements, a contact layer between the elements, and a set of bolts. The contact layer is assumed as the Winkler model, which can be treated as a nonlinear or linear model. In contrast, the set of bolts are modelled using simplified beam models, known as spider bolt models. The theorem according to which nonlinearity of the contact layer has a negligible impact on the final preload of the joint in the case of its sequential tightening has been verified. Results of sample calculations for the selected multi-bolted system, in the form of diagrams of preloads in the bolts as well as normal contact pressure between the joined elements during the assembly process and at its end, are presented.

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications.

PubMed

Leach, A W; Mumford, J D

2008-01-01

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.

Environmental and Economic Performance of Commercial-scale Solar Photovoltaic Systems: A Field Study of Complex Energy Systems at the Desert Research Institute (DRI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.

2014-12-01

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are being aggressively deployed at residential, commercial, and utility scales to complement power generation from conventional sources. This is motivated both by the desire to reduce carbon footprints and by policy-driven financial incentives. Although several life cycle analyses (LCA) have investigated environmental impacts and energy payback times of solar PV systems, most results are based on hypothetical systems rather than actual, deployed systems that can provide measured performance data. Over the past five years, Desert Research Institute (DRI) in Nevada has installed eight solar PV systems of scales from 3 to 1000 kW, the sum of which supply approximately 40% of the total power use at DRI's Reno and Las Vegas campuses. The goal of this work is to explore greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts and examine the economic performance of DRI's PV systems by developing and applying a comprehensive LCA and techno-economic (TEA) model. This model is built using data appropriate for each type of panel used in the DRI systems. Power output is modeled using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) model PVWatts. The performance of PVWatts is verified by the actual measurements from DRI's PV systems. Several environmental and economic metrics are quantified for the DRI systems, including life cycle GHG emissions and energy return. GHG results are compared with Nevada grid-based electricity. Initial results indicate that DRI's solar-derived electricity offers clear GHG benefits compared to conventional grid electricity. DRI's eight systems have GHG intensity values of 29-56 gCO2e/kWh, as compared to the GHG intensity of 212 gCO2e/kWh of national average grid power. The major source of impacts (82-92% of the total) is the upstream life cycle burden of manufacturing PV panels, which are made of either mono-crystalline or multi-crystalline silicon. Given the same type of PV panel, GHG intensity decreases as the scale of the system increases. Energy payback times of DRI's solar PV systems range from 0.5 to 1.5 years. The cost payback time for the DRI PV systems and the cost per ton of CO2 avoided by replacing Nevada-specific electrical power will be determined. The sensitivity of these environmental and economic impacts with respect to specific model parameters is being investigated.

Impact of single-point GPS integrated water vapor estimates on short-range WRF model forecasts over southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prashant; Gopalan, Kaushik; Shukla, Bipasha Paul; Shyam, Abhineet

2017-11-01

Specifying physically consistent and accurate initial conditions is one of the major challenges of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, ground-based global positioning system (GPS) integrated water vapor (IWV) measurements available from the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) station in Bangalore, India, are used to assess the impact of GPS data on NWP model forecasts over southern India. Two experiments are performed with and without assimilation of GPS-retrieved IWV observations during the Indian winter monsoon period (November-December, 2012) using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method. Assimilation of GPS data improved the model IWV analysis as well as the subsequent forecasts. There is a positive impact of ˜10 % over Bangalore and nearby regions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model-predicted 24-h surface temperature forecasts have also improved when compared with observations. Small but significant improvements were found in the rainfall forecasts compared to control experiments.

Energy Facility Siting by Means of Environmental Modelling with LANDSAT, Thematic Mapper and Geographic Information System (GIS) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Currently based on ground and aerial surveys, the land cover data base of the Pennsylvania Power and Light Company is routinely used for modelling the effects of alternative generating plant and transmission line sites on the local and regional environment. The development of a satellite-based geographic information system would facilitate both the preparation of environmental impact statements by power companies and assessment of the data by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A cooperative project is planned to demonstrate the methodology for integrating satellite data into an existing geographic information system, d to further evaluate the ability of satellite data in modeling environmental conditions that would be applied in the preparation and assessment of environmental impact statements.

Analytical Modeling of Pressure Wall Hole Size and Maximum Tip-to-Tip Crack Length for Perforating Normal and Oblique Orbital Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Mohamed, Essam

1997-01-01

This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop first-principles-based models of hole size and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for a spacecraft module pressure wall that has been perforated in an orbital debris particle impact. The hole size and crack length models are developed by sequentially characterizing the phenomena comprising the orbital debris impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the pressure wall, the deformation of the pressure wall due to debris cloud impact loading prior to crack formation, pressure wall crack initiation, propagation, and arrest, and finally pressure wall deformation following crack initiation and growth. The model development has been accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory, as well as the principles of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The predictions of the model developed herein are compared against the predictions of empirically-based equations for hole diameters and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for three International Space Station wall configurations. The ISS wall systems considered are the baseline U.S. Lab Cylinder, the enhanced U.S. Lab Cylinder, and the U.S. Lab Endcone. The empirical predictor equations were derived from experimentally obtained hole diameters and crack length data. The original model predictions did not compare favorably with the experimental data, especially for cases in which pressure wall petalling did not occur. Several modifications were made to the original model to bring its predictions closer in line with the experimental results. Following the adjustment of several empirical constants, the predictions of the modified analytical model were in much closer agreement with the experimental results.

Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...

Development of Adaptive Management Tools to Guide Habitat Allocations for At-Risk Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Results indicated that the mating system assumptions can have a large impact on the ability of the model to approximate data collected in the field...indicated that strength of habitat preferences during dispersal for juvenile and subadult male dispersal also significantly impacted model fit. Certainly...the influence of habitat loss, as these structural (or geometric) changes are often confounded in real landscapes, the impact of fragmentation is

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Dynamics Using a Fully Coupled Hydrologic Feedback Model between Surface and Subsurface Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Lee, J.; Koo, M.

2011-12-01

Climate is the most critical driving force of the hydrologic system of the Earth. Since the industrial revolution, the impacts of anthropogenic activities to the Earth environment have been expanded and accelerated. Especially, the global emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is known to have significantly increased temperature and affected the hydrologic system. Many hydrologists have contributed to the studies regarding the climate change on the hydrologic system since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988. Among many components in the hydrologic system groundwater and its response to the climate change and anthropogenic activities are not fully understood due to the complexity of subsurface conditions between the surface and the groundwater table. A new spatio-temporal hydrologic model has been developed to estimate the impacts of climate change and land use dynamics on the groundwater. The model consists of two sub-models: a surface model and a subsurface model. The surface model involves three surface processes: interception, runoff, and evapotranspiration, and the subsurface model does also three subsurface processes: soil moisture balance, recharge, and groundwater flow. The surface model requires various input data including land use, soil types, vegetation types, topographical elevations, and meteorological data. The surface model simulates daily hydrological processes for rainfall interception, surface runoff varied by land use change and crop growth, and evapotranspiration controlled by soil moisture balance. The daily soil moisture balance is a key element to link two sub-models as it calculates infiltration and groundwater recharge by considering a time delay routing through a vadose zone down to the groundwater table. MODFLOW is adopted to simulate groundwater flow and interaction with surface water components as well. The model is technically flexible to add new model or modify existing model as it is developed with an object-oriented language - Python. The model also can easily be localized by simple modification of soil and crop properties. The actual application of the model after calibration was successful and results showed reliable water balance and interaction between the surface and subsurface hydrologic systems.

Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanna, R. Blair; Campbell, Sharon G.

2000-01-01

This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

The impact of SOA for achieving healthcare interoperability. An empirical investigation based on a hypothetical adoption.

PubMed

Daskalakis, S; Mantas, J

2009-01-01

The evaluation of a service-oriented prototype implementation for healthcare interoperability. A prototype framework was developed, aiming to exploit the use of service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts for achieving healthcare interoperability and to move towards a virtual patient record (VPR) paradigm. The prototype implementation was evaluated for its hypothetical adoption. The evaluation strategy was based on the initial proposition of the DeLone and McLean model of information systems (IS) success [1], as modeled by Iivari [2]. A set of SOA and VPR characteristics were empirically encapsulated within the dimensions of IS success model, combined with measures from previous research works. The data gathered was analyzed using partial least squares (PLS). The results highlighted that system quality is a partial predictor of system use but not of user satisfaction. On the contrary, information quality proved to be a significant predictor of user satisfaction and partially a strong significant predictor of system use. Moreover, system use did not prove to be a significant predictor of individual impact whereas the bi-directional relation between use and user satisfaction did not confirm. Additionally, user satisfaction was found to be a strong significant predictor of individual impact. Finally, individual impact proved to be a strong significant predictor of organizational impact. The empirical study attempted to obtain hypothetical, but still useful beliefs and perceptions regarding the SOA prototype implementation. The deduced observations can form the basis for further investigation regarding the adaptability of SOA implementations with VPR characteristics in the healthcare domain.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

PubMed

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

Simulation of Foam Impact Effects on Components of the Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System. Chapter 7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fahrenthold, Eric P.; Park, Young-Keun

2004-01-01

A series of three dimensional simulations has been performed to investigate analytically the effect of insulating foam impacts on ceramic tile and reinforced carbon-carbon components of the Space Shuttle thermal protection system. The simulations employed a hybrid particle-finite element method and a parallel code developed for use in spacecraft design applications. The conclusions suggested by the numerical study are in general consistent with experiment. The results emphasize the need for additional material testing work on the dynamic mechanical response of thermal protection system materials, and additional impact experiments for use in validating computational models of impact effects.

Role of Atmospheric Chemistry in the Climate Impacts of Stratospheric Volcanic Injections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2016-01-01

The climate impact of a volcanic eruption is known to be dependent on the size, location and timing of the eruption. However, the chemistry and composition of the volcanic plume also control its impact on climate. It is not just sulfur dioxide gas, but also the coincident emissions of water, halogens and ash that influence the radiative and climate forcing of an eruption. Improvements in the capability of models to capture aerosol microphysics, and the inclusion of chemistry and aerosol microphysics modules in Earth system models, allow us to evaluate the interaction of composition and chemistry within volcanic plumes in a new way. These modeling efforts also illustrate the role of water vapor in controlling the chemical evolution, and hence climate impacts, of the plume. A growing realization of the importance of the chemical composition of volcanic plumes is leading to a more sophisticated and realistic representation of volcanic forcing in climate simulations, which in turn aids in reconciling simulations and proxy reconstructions of the climate impacts of past volcanic eruptions. More sophisticated simulations are expected to help, eventually, with predictions of the impact on the Earth system of any future large volcanic eruptions.

LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

EPA Science Inventory

An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

System-Integrated Finite Element Analysis of a Full-Scale Helicopter Crash Test with Deployable Energy Absorbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Annett, Martin S.; Polanco, Michael A.

2010-01-01

A full-scale crash test of an MD-500 helicopter was conducted in December 2009 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research facility (LandIR). The MD-500 helicopter was fitted with a composite honeycomb Deployable Energy Absorber (DEA) and tested under vertical and horizontal impact velocities of 26-ft/sec and 40-ft/sec, respectively. The objectives of the test were to evaluate the performance of the DEA concept under realistic crash conditions and to generate test data for validation of a system integrated finite element model. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests was conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components, including a new crush tube and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined within the system integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. The objective of this paper is to summarize the finite element models developed and analyses performed, beginning with pre-test predictions and continuing through post-test validation.

Stormwater runoff in watersheds: a system for prediciting impacts of development and climate change

Treesearch

Ann Blair; Denise Sanger; Susan Lovelace

2016-01-01

The Stormwater Runoff Modeling System (SWARM) enhances understanding of impacts of land-use and climate change on stormwater runoff in watersheds. We developed this singleevent system based on US Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number and unit hydrograph methods. We tested SWARM using US Geological Survey discharge and rain data...

Marsupials from space: fluctuating asymmetry, geographical information systems and animal conservation

PubMed Central

Teixeira, Camila Palhares; Hirsch, André; Perini, Henrique; Young, Robert John

2006-01-01

We report the development of a new quantitative method of assessing the effects of anthropogenic impacts on living beings; this method allows us to assess actual impacts and to travel backwards in time to assess impacts. In this method, we have crossed data on fluctuating asymmetry (FA, a measure of environmental or genetic stress), using Didelphis albiventris as a model, with geographical information systems data relating to environmental composition. Our results show that more impacted environments resulted in statistically higher levels of FA. Our method appears to be a useful and flexible conservation tool for assessing anthropogenic impacts. PMID:16627287

An embedded fibre optic sensor for impact damage detection in composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glossop, Neil David William

1989-09-01

A structurally embedded fiber optic damage detection sensor for composite materials is described. The system is designed specifically for the detection of barely visible damage resulting from low velocity impacts in Kevlar-epoxy laminates. By monitoring the light transmission properties of optical fiber embedded in the composite, it was shown that the integrity of the material can be accurately determined. The effect of several parameters on the sensitivity of the system was investigated, including the effect of the optical fiber orientation and depth of embedding within the composite. A novel surface was also developed for the optical fibers to ensure they will fracture at the requisite damage level. The influence of the optical fiber sensors on the tensile and compressive material properties and on the impact resistance of the laminate was also studied. Extensive experimental results from impact tests are reported and a numerical model of the impact event is presented which is able to predict and model the damage mechanism and sensor system. A new and powerful method of nondestructive evaluation for translucent composite materials based on image enhanced backlighting is also described.

CELFE: Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite Element program for high velocity impact. Part 1: Theory and formulation. [hydroelasto-viscoplastic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, C. H.

1978-01-01

A 3-D finite element program capable of simulating the dynamic behavior in the vicinity of the impact point, together with predicting the dynamic response in the remaining part of the structural component subjected to high velocity impact is discussed. The finite algorithm is formulated in a general moving coordinate system. In the vicinity of the impact point contained by a moving failure front, the relative velocity of the coordinate system will approach the material particle velocity. The dynamic behavior inside the region is described by Eulerian formulation based on a hydroelasto-viscoplastic model. The failure front which can be regarded as the boundary of the impact zone is described by a transition layer. The layer changes the representation from the Eulerian mode to the Lagrangian mode outside the failure front by varying the relative velocity of the coordinate system to zero. The dynamic response in the remaining part of the structure described by the Lagrangian formulation is treated using advanced structural analysis. An interfacing algorithm for coupling CELFE with NASTRAN is constructed to provide computational capabilities for large structures.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Prediction of turning stability using receptance coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasiewicz, Marcin; Powałka, Bartosz

2018-01-01

This paper presents an issue of machining stability prediction of dynamic "lathe - workpiece" system evaluated using receptance coupling method. Dynamic properties of the lathe components (the spindle and the tailstock) are assumed to be constant and can be determined experimentally based on the results of the impact test. Hence, the variable of the system "machine tool - holder - workpiece" is the machined part, which can be easily modelled analytically. The method of receptance coupling enables a synthesis of experimental (spindle, tailstock) and analytical (machined part) models, so impact testing of the entire system becomes unnecessary. The paper presents methodology of analytical and experimental models synthesis, evaluation of the stability lobes and experimental validation procedure involving both the determination of the dynamic properties of the system and cutting tests. In the summary the experimental verification results would be presented and discussed.

Recent advances in vibro-impact dynamics and collision of ocean vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Raouf A.

2014-11-01

The treatment of ship impacts and collisions takes different approaches depending on the emphasis of each discipline. For example, dynamicists, physicist, and mathematicians are dealing with developing analytical models and mappings of vibro-impact systems. On the other hand, naval architects and ship designers are interested in developing design codes and structural assessments due to slamming loads, liquid sloshing impact loads in liquefied natural gas tanks and ship grounding accidents. The purpose of this review is to highlight the main differences of the two disciplines. It begins with a brief account of the theory of vibro-impact dynamics based on modeling and mapping of systems experiencing discontinuous changes in their state of motion due to collision. The main techniques used in modeling include power-law phenomenological modeling, Hertzian modeling, and non-smooth coordinate transformations originally developed by Zhuravlev and Ivanov. In view of their effectiveness, both Zhuravlev and Ivanov non-smooth coordinate transformations will be described and assessed for the case of ship roll dynamics experiencing impact with rigid barriers. These transformations have the advantage of converting the vibro-impact oscillator into an oscillator without barriers such that the corresponding equation of motion does not contain any impact term. One of the recent results dealing with the coefficient of restitution is that its value monotonically decreases with the impact velocity and not unique but random in nature. Slamming loads and grounding events of ocean waves acting on the bottom of high speed vessels will be assessed with reference to the ship structural damage. It will be noticed that naval architects and marine engineers are treating these problems using different approaches from those used by dynamicists. The problem of sloshing impact in liquefied natural gas cargo and related problems will be assessed based on the numerical and experimental results. It is important for vessel designers to determine the capacity of ships to resist random slamming loads, sloshing loading impact, grounding accidents and ships collisions.

A Graphical Systems Model and Tissue-specific Functional Gene Sets to Aid Transcriptomic Analysis of Chemical Impacts on the Female Teleost Reproductive Axis

EPA Science Inventory

Oligonucleotide microarrays and other ‘omics’ approaches are powerful tools for unsupervised analysis of chemical impacts on biological systems. However, the lack of well annotated biological pathways for many aquatic organisms, including fish, and the poor power of microarray-b...

IVHS And The Environment, New Models For Federal, State And Local Cooperation In The Application Of Advanced Transportation Systems For Environmental Improvements In Urban Areas, Executive Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-09-01

INTELLIGENT VEHICLE HIGHWAY SYSTEMS (IVHS) HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE TRANSPORTATION'S IMPACT ON URBAN AIR QUALITY AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS. WHETHER THIS IMPACT IS POSITIVE DEPENDS ON HOW THESE TECHNOLOGIES ARE DEPLOYED. THIS S...

A Progressive Damage Model for Predicting Permanent Indentation and Impact Damage in Composite Laminates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhaojie; Guan, Zhidong; Li, Zengshan

2017-10-01

In this paper, a progressive damage model was established on the basis of ABAQUS software for predicting permanent indentation and impact damage in composite laminates. Intralaminar and interlaminar damage was modelled based on the continuum damage mechanics (CDM) in the finite element model. For the verification of the model, low-velocity impact tests of quasi-isotropic laminates with material system of T300/5228A were conducted. Permanent indentation and impact damage of the laminates were simulated and the numerical results agree well with the experiments. It can be concluded that an obvious knee point can be identified on the curve of the indentation depth versus impact energy. Matrix cracking and delamination develops rapidly with the increasing impact energy, while considerable amount of fiber breakage only occurs when the impact energy exceeds the energy corresponding to the knee point. Predicted indentation depth after the knee point is very sensitive to the parameter μ which is proposed in this paper, and the acceptable value of this parameter is in range from 0.9 to 1.0.

Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in US power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.

2009-09-15

Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts ofmore » a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.« less

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter

2016-01-01

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

NEIMiner: nanomaterial environmental impact data miner.

PubMed

Tang, Kaizhi; Liu, Xiong; Harper, Stacey L; Steevens, Jeffery A; Xu, Roger

2013-01-01

As more engineered nanomaterials (eNM) are developed for a wide range of applications, it is crucial to minimize any unintended environmental impacts resulting from the application of eNM. To realize this vision, industry and policymakers must base risk management decisions on sound scientific information about the environmental fate of eNM, their availability to receptor organisms (eg, uptake), and any resultant biological effects (eg, toxicity). To address this critical need, we developed a model-driven, data mining system called NEIMiner, to study nanomaterial environmental impact (NEI). NEIMiner consists of four components: NEI modeling framework, data integration, data management and access, and model building. The NEI modeling framework defines the scope of NEI modeling and the strategy of integrating NEI models to form a layered, comprehensive predictability. The data integration layer brings together heterogeneous data sources related to NEI via automatic web services and web scraping technologies. The data management and access layer reuses and extends a popular content management system (CMS), Drupal, and consists of modules that model the complex data structure for NEI-related bibliography and characterization data. The model building layer provides an advanced analysis capability for NEI data. Together, these components provide significant value to the process of aggregating and analyzing large-scale distributed NEI data. A prototype of the NEIMiner system is available at http://neiminer.i-a-i.com/.

NEIMiner: nanomaterial environmental impact data miner

PubMed Central

Tang, Kaizhi; Liu, Xiong; Harper, Stacey L; Steevens, Jeffery A; Xu, Roger

2013-01-01

As more engineered nanomaterials (eNM) are developed for a wide range of applications, it is crucial to minimize any unintended environmental impacts resulting from the application of eNM. To realize this vision, industry and policymakers must base risk management decisions on sound scientific information about the environmental fate of eNM, their availability to receptor organisms (eg, uptake), and any resultant biological effects (eg, toxicity). To address this critical need, we developed a model-driven, data mining system called NEIMiner, to study nanomaterial environmental impact (NEI). NEIMiner consists of four components: NEI modeling framework, data integration, data management and access, and model building. The NEI modeling framework defines the scope of NEI modeling and the strategy of integrating NEI models to form a layered, comprehensive predictability. The data integration layer brings together heterogeneous data sources related to NEI via automatic web services and web scraping technologies. The data management and access layer reuses and extends a popular content management system (CMS), Drupal, and consists of modules that model the complex data structure for NEI-related bibliography and characterization data. The model building layer provides an advanced analysis capability for NEI data. Together, these components provide significant value to the process of aggregating and analyzing large-scale distributed NEI data. A prototype of the NEIMiner system is available at http://neiminer.i-a-i.com/. PMID:24098076

Direct and indirect impacts of crop-livestock organization on mixed crop-livestock systems sustainability: a model-based study.

PubMed

Sneessens, I; Veysset, P; Benoit, M; Lamadon, A; Brunschwig, G

2016-11-01

Crop-livestock production is claimed more sustainable than specialized production systems. However, the presence of controversial studies suggests that there must be conditions of mixing crop and livestock productions to allow for higher sustainable performances. Whereas previous studies focused on the impact of crop-livestock interactions on performances, we posit here that crop-livestock organization is a key determinant of farming system sustainability. Crop-livestock organization refers to the percentage of the agricultural area that is dedicated to each production. Our objective is to investigate if crop-livestock organization has both a direct and an indirect impact on mixed crop-livestock (MC-L) sustainability. In that objective, we build a whole-farm model parametrized on representative French sheep and crop farming systems in plain areas (Vienne, France). This model permits simulating contrasted MC-L systems and their subsequent sustainability through the following indicators of performance: farm income, production, N balance, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (/kg product) and MJ consumption (/kg product). Two MC-L systems were simulated with contrasted crop-livestock organizations (MC20-L80: 20% of crops; MC80-L20: 80% of crops). A first scenario - constraining no crop-livestock interactions in both MC-L systems - permits highlighting that crop-livestock organization has a significant direct impact on performances that implies trade-offs between objectives of sustainability. Indeed, the MC80-L20 system is showing higher performances for farm income (+44%), livestock production (+18%) and crop GHG emissions (-14%) whereas the MC20-L80 system has a better N balance (-53%) and a lower livestock MJ consumption (-9%). A second scenario - allowing for crop-livestock interactions in both MC20-L80 and MC80-L20 systems - stated that crop-livestock organization has a significant indirect impact on performances. Indeed, even if crop-livestock interactions permit improving performances, crop-livestock organization influences the capacity of MC-L systems to benefit from crop-livestock interactions. As a consequence, we observed a decreasing performance trade-off between MC-L systems for farm income (-4%) and crop GHG emissions (-10%) whereas the gap increases for nitrogen balance (+23%), livestock production (+6%) - MJ consumption (+16%) - GHG emissions (+5%) and crop MJ consumption (+5%). However, the indirect impact of crop-livestock organization doesn't reverse the trend of trade-offs between objectives of sustainability determined by the direct impact of crop-livestock organization. As a conclusion, crop-livestock organization is a key factor that has to be taken into account when studying the sustainability of mixed crop-livestock systems.

A Comprehensive Planning Model and Delivery System for Leadership Training Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janosik, Steven M.; Sina, Julie A.

1988-01-01

Presents an eight-step planning model that operationally defines a comprehensive delivery systems approach to campuswide leadership training. Lists four goals of the model: to increase efficiency of leadership training through shared resources, to decrease costs, to provide quality control, and to increase impact of programming effort by creating…

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs This architecture will also be used for the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project. - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Multiagent Modeling and Simulation in Human-Robot Mission Operations Work System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sierhuis, Maarten; Clancey, William J.; Sims, Michael H.; Shafto, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper describes a collaborative multiagent modeling and simulation approach for designing work systems. The Brahms environment is used to model mission operations for a semi-autonomous robot mission to the Moon at the work practice level. It shows the impact of human-decision making on the activities and energy consumption of a robot. A collaborative work systems design methodology is described that allows informal models, created with users and stakeholders, to be used as input to the development of formal computational models.

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Geothermal User Reference Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, C.; Augustine, C.; Goldberg, M.

2012-09-01

The Geothermal Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is an Excel-based user-friendly tools that estimates the economic impacts of constructing and operating hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) power generation projects at the local level for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Model Geothermal User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in using and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide alsomore » provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted.« less

Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2014-12-01

During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Biofouling in forward osmosis systems: An experimental and numerical study.

PubMed

Bucs, Szilárd S; Valladares Linares, Rodrigo; Vrouwenvelder, Johannes S; Picioreanu, Cristian

2016-12-01

This study evaluates with numerical simulations supported by experimental data the impact of biofouling on membrane performance in a cross-flow forward osmosis (FO) system. The two-dimensional numerical model couples liquid flow with solute transport in the FO feed and draw channels, in the FO membrane support layer and in the biofilm developed on one or both sides of the membrane. The developed model was tested against experimental measurements at various osmotic pressure differences and in batch operation without and with the presence of biofilm on the membrane active layer. Numerical studies explored the effect of biofilm properties (thickness, hydraulic permeability and porosity), biofilm membrane surface coverage, and biofilm location on salt external concentration polarization and on the permeation flux. The numerical simulations revealed that (i) when biofouling occurs, external concentration polarization became important, (ii) the biofilm hydraulic permeability and membrane surface coverage have the highest impact on water flux, and (iii) the biofilm formed in the draw channel impacts the process performance more than when formed in the feed channel. The proposed mathematical model helps to understand the impact of biofouling in FO membrane systems and to develop possible strategies to reduce and control biofouling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cellular automation model accounting for bicycle's group behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Rui, Ying-Xu; Zhang, Jian; Shang, Hua-Yan

2018-02-01

Recently, bicycle has become an important traffic tool in China, again. Due to the merits of bicycle, the group behavior widely exists in urban traffic system. However, little effort has been made to explore the impacts of the group behavior on bicycle flow. In this paper, we propose a CA (cellular automaton) model with group behavior to explore the complex traffic phenomena caused by shoulder group behavior and following group behavior on an open road. The numerical results illustrate that the proposed model can qualitatively describe the impacts of the two kinds of group behaviors on bicycle flow and that the effects are related to the mode and size of group behaviors. The results can help us to better understand the impacts of the bicycle's group behaviors on urban traffic system and effectively control the bicycle's group behavior.

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.; Annett, Martin S.; Jackson, Karen E.

2011-01-01

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslowski, Wieslaw

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate throughmore » polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.« less

The skill of ECMWF long range Forecasting System to drive impact models for health and hydrology in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, F.; Tompkins, A. M.; Lowe, R.; Dutra, E.; Wetterhall, F.

2012-04-01

As the quality of numerical weather prediction over the monthly to seasonal leadtimes steadily improves there is an increasing motivation to apply these fruitfully to the impacts sectors of health, water, energy and agriculture. Despite these improvements, the accuracy of fields such as temperature and precipitation that are required to drive sectoral models can still be poor. This is true globally, but particularly so in Africa, the region of focus in the present study. In the last year ECMWF has been particularly active through EU research founded projects in demonstrating the capability of its longer range forecasting system to drive impact modeling systems in this region. A first assessment on the consequences of the documented errors in ECMWF forecasting system is therefore presented here looking at two different application fields which we found particularly critical for Africa - vector-born diseases prevention and hydrological monitoring. A new malaria community model (VECTRI) has been developed at ICTP and tested for the 3 target regions participating in the QWECI project. The impacts on the mean malaria climate is assessed using the newly realized seasonal forecasting system (Sys4) with the dismissed system 3 (Sys3) which had the same model cycle of the up-to-date ECMWF re-analysis product (ERA-Interim). The predictive skill of Sys4 to be employed for malaria monitoring and forecast are also evaluated by aggregating the fields to country level. As a part of the DEWFORA projects, ECMWF is also developing a system for drought monitoring and forecasting over Africa whose main meteorological input is precipitation. Similarly to what is done for the VECTRI model, the skill of seasonal forecasts of precipitation is, in this application, translated into the capability of predicting drought while ERA-Interim is used in monitoring. On a monitoring level, the near real-time update of ERA-Interim could compensate the lack of observations in the regions. However, ERA-Interim suffers from biases and drifts that limit its application for drought monitoring purposes in some regions.

Optimization of damping in the passive automotive suspension system with using two quarter-car models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozia, Z.; Zdanowicz, P.

2016-09-01

The paper presents the optimization of damping in the passive suspension system of a motor vehicle moving rectilinearly with a constant speed on a road with rough surface of random irregularities, described according to the ISO classification. Two quarter-car 2DoF models, linear and non-linear, were used; in the latter, nonlinearities of spring characteristics of the suspension system and pneumatic tyres, sliding friction in the suspension system, and wheel lift-off were taken into account. The smoothing properties of vehicle tyres were represented in both models. The calculations were carried out for three roads of different quality, with simulating four vehicle speeds. Statistical measures of vertical vehicle body vibrations and of changes in the vertical tyre/road contact force were used as the criteria of system optimization and model comparison. The design suspension displacement limit was also taken into account. The optimum suspension damping coefficient was determined and the impact of undesirable sliding friction in the suspension system on the calculation results was estimated. The results obtained make it possible to evaluate the impact of the structure and complexity of the model used on the results of the optimization.

Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact (climate4impact.eu) is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the IS-ENES European project and is currently operated and further developed in the IS ENES2 project. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. Climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task is to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal informs users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. Climate4impact currently has two main objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

Hydrodynamic Impact of a System with a Single Elastic Mode II : Comparison of Experimental Force and Response with Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Robert W; Merten, Kenneth F

1952-01-01

Hydrodynamic impact tests were made on an elastic model approximating a two-mass spring system to determine experimentally the effects of structural flexibility on the hydrodynamic loads encountered during seaplane landing impacts and to correlate the results with theory. A flexible seaplane was represented by a two-mass spring system consisting of a rigid prismatic float connected to a rigid upper mass by an elastic structure. The model had a ratio of sprung mass to hull mass of 0.6 and a natural frequency of 3.0 cycles per second. The tests were conducted in smooth water at fixed trims and included both high and low flight-path angles and a range of velocity. Theoretical and experimental comparisons indicated that the theoretical results agreed well with the experimental results.

Examining the impacts of increased corn production on groundwater quality using a coupled modeling system

EPA Science Inventory

This study demonstrates the value of a coupled chemical transport modeling system for investigating groundwater nitrate contamination responses associated with nitrogen (N) fertilizer application and increased corn production. The coupled Community Multiscale Air Quality Bidirect...

Air quality and future energy system planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Dennis; Lupton, Rick

2016-04-01

Ambient air pollution has been linked to an increasing number of premature deaths throughout the world. Projected increases in demand for food, energy resources and manufactured products will likely contribute to exacerbate air pollution with an increasing impact on human health, agricultural productivity and climate change. Current events such as tampering emissions tests by VW car manufacturers, failure to comply with EU Air Quality directives and WHO guidelines by many EU countries, the problem of smog in Chinese cities and new industrial emissions regulations represent unique challenges but also opportunities for regulators, local authorities and industry. However current models and practices of energy and resource use do not consider ambient air impacts as an integral part of the planing process. Furthermore the analysis of drivers, sources and impacts of air pollution is often fragmented, difficult to understand and lacks effective visualization tools that bring all of these components together. This work aims to develop a model that links impacts of air quality on human health and ecosystems to current and future developments in the energy system, industrial and agricultural activity and patterns of land use. The model will be added to the ForeseerTM tool, which is an integrated resource analysis platform that has been developed at the University of Cambridge initially with funding from BP and more recently through the EPSRC funded Whole Systems Energy Modeling (WholeSEM) project. The basis of the tool is a set of linked physical models for energy, water and land, including the technologies that are used to transform these resources into final services such as housing, food, transport and household goods. The new air quality model will explore different feedback effects between energy, land and atmospheric systems with the overarching goal of supporting better communication about the drivers of air quality and to incorporate concerns about air quality into energy system planning. Some example applications of this work are: (1) to discover conflicts and synergies between air quality regulations and future developments in the energy system and land use change; (2) to show the drivers of air quality in a given spatial context; (3) to explore effective ways to visualize impacts of different energy, land use and emissions control policies on air quality. An initial test case for the Bay Area in California will be presented, extending the scope of the existing California ForeseerTM tool to identify impacts of different policies within the water-energy-land nexus on local air quality.

Global change modeling for Northern Eurasia: a review and strategies to move forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lawford, R. G.; Kappas, M.; Paltsev, S.; Groisman, P. Y.

2017-12-01

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

2017-08-01

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

The Impact of Childrens' Divorce on Parents: And Some Contributing Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyatt, Ralph; Kaslow, Florence

1985-01-01

Considers the impact of an adult child's divorce on his or her parents. Within the context of a cybernetic circular systems model of conceptualization about family relations, it is posited that older parents' reactions impact upon their childrens' post-divorce readjustment. (Author/NRB)

Electric Sector Integration | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

investigates the potential impacts of expanding renewable technology deployment on grid operations and Electric System Flexibility and Storage Impacts on Conventional Generators Transmission Infrastructure Generation Our grid integration studies use state-of-the-art modeling and analysis to evaluate the impacts of

System Impact Study of the Eastern Grid of Sumba Island, Indonesia: Steady-State and Dynamic System Modeling for the Integration of One and Two 850-kW Wind Turbine Generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oswal, R.; Jain, P.; Muljadi, Eduard

2016-01-01

The goal of this project was to study the impact of integrating one and two 850-kW wind turbine generators into the eastern power system network of Sumba Island, Indonesia. A model was created for the 20-kV distribution network as it existed in the first quarter of 2015 with a peak load of 5.682 MW. Detailed data were collected for each element of the network. Load flow, short-circuit, and transient analyses were performed using DIgSILENT PowerFactory 15.2.1.

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Zhou, Ella; O'Connell, Matthew

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impactsmore » on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.« less

Deformation of Polymer Composites in Force Protection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarian, Oshin

Systems used for protecting personnel, vehicles and infrastructure from ballistic and blast threats derive their performance from a combination of the intrinsic properties of the constituent materials and the way in which the materials are arranged and attached to one another. The present work addresses outstanding issues in both the intrinsic properties of high-performance fiber composites and the consequences of how such composites are integrated into force protection systems. One aim is to develop a constitutive model for the large-strain intralaminar shear deformation of an ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) fiber-reinforced composite. To this end, an analytical model based on a binary representation of the constituent phases is developed and validated using finite element analyses. The model is assessed through comparisons with experimental measurements on cross-ply composite specimens in the +/-45° orientation. The hardening behavior and the limiting tensile strain are attributable to rotations of fibers in the plastic domain and the effects of these rotations on the internal stress state. The model is further assessed through quasi-static punch experiments and dynamic impact tests using metal foam projectiles. The finite element model based on this model accurately captures both the back-face deflection-time history and the final plate profile (especially the changes caused by fiber pull-in). A separate analytical framework for describing the accelerations caused by head impact during, for example, the secondary collision of a vehicle occupant with the cabin interior during an external event is also presented. The severity of impact, characterized by the Head Injury Criterion (HIC), is used to assess the efficacy of crushable foams in mitigating head injury. The framework is used to identify the optimal foam strength that minimizes the HIC for prescribed mass and velocity, subject to constraints on foam thickness. The predictive capability of the model is evaluated through comparisons with a series of experimental measurements from impacts of an instrumented headform onto several commercial foams. Additional comparisons are made with the results of finite element simulations. An analytical model for the planar impact of a cylindrical mass on a foam is also developed. This model sets a theoretical bound for the reduction in HIC by utilizing a "plate-on-foam" design. Experimental results of impact tests on foams coupled with stiff composite plates are presented, with comparisons to the theoretical limits predicted by the analytical model. Design maps are developed from the analytical models, illustrating the variations in the HIC with foam strength and impact velocity.

An open simulation approach to identify chances and limitations for vulnerable road user (VRU) active safety.

PubMed

Seiniger, Patrick; Bartels, Oliver; Pastor, Claus; Wisch, Marcus

2013-01-01

It is commonly agreed that active safety will have a significant impact on reducing accident figures for pedestrians and probably also bicyclists. However, chances and limitations for active safety systems have only been derived based on accident data and the current state of the art, based on proprietary simulation models. The objective of this article is to investigate these chances and limitations by developing an open simulation model. This article introduces a simulation model, incorporating accident kinematics, driving dynamics, driver reaction times, pedestrian dynamics, performance parameters of different autonomous emergency braking (AEB) generations, as well as legal and logical limitations. The level of detail for available pedestrian accident data is limited. Relevant variables, especially timing of the pedestrian appearance and the pedestrian's moving speed, are estimated using assumptions. The model in this article uses the fact that a pedestrian and a vehicle in an accident must have been in the same spot at the same time and defines the impact position as a relevant accident parameter, which is usually available from accident data. The calculations done within the model identify the possible timing available for braking by an AEB system as well as the possible speed reduction for different accident scenarios as well as for different system configurations. The simulation model identifies the lateral impact position of the pedestrian as a significant parameter for system performance, and the system layout is designed to brake when the accident becomes unavoidable by the vehicle driver. Scenarios with a pedestrian running from behind an obstruction are the most demanding scenarios and will very likely never be avoidable for all vehicle speeds due to physical limits. Scenarios with an unobstructed person walking will very likely be treatable for a wide speed range for next generation AEB systems.

A near real time regional JPSS and GOES-R data assimilation system for high impact weather research and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wang, P.; Han, H.; Schmit, T. J.

2014-12-01

JPSS and GOES-R observations play important role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, how to best represent the information from satellite observations and how to get value added information from these satellite data into regional NWP models, including both radiance and derived products, still need investigations. In order to enhance the applications of JPSS and GOES-R data in regional NWP for high impact weather forecasts, scientists from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at University of Wisconsin-Madison have recently developed a near realtime regional Satellite Data Assimilation system for Tropical storm forecasts (SDAT) (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sdat). The system consists of the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system and the advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to assimilate GOES, AMSUA/AMSUB, HIRS, MHS, ATMS (Suomi-NPP), AIRS and IASI radiances, the SDAT is also able to assimilate satellite-derived products such as hyperspectral IR retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), GOES Sounder (and future GOES-R) layer precipitable water (LPW) and GOES Imager atmospheric motion vector (AMV) products into the system. Real time forecasted GOES infrared (IR) images simulated from SDAT output have also been part of the SDAT system for applications and forecast evaluations. To set up the system parameters, a series of experiments have been carried out to test the impacts of different initialization schemes, including different background error matrix, different NCEP global model date sets, and different WRF model horizontal resolutions. Using SDAT as a research testbed, researches have been conducted for different satellite data impacts study, as well as different techniques for handling clouds in radiance assimilation. Since the fall of 2013, the SDAT system has been running in near real time. The results from historical cases and 2014 hurricane season cases will be compared with the operational GFS and HWRF, and presented at the meeting.

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; John Mills; Richard Haynes; Peter Ince; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE(TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make SO-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more...

Axisymmetric Lattice Boltzmann Model of Droplet Impact on Solid Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalgamoni, Hussein; Yong, Xin

2017-11-01

Droplet impact is a ubiquitous fluid phenomena encountered in scientific and engineering applications such as ink-jet printing, coating, electronics manufacturing, and many others. It is of great technological importance to understand the detailed dynamics of drop impact on various surfaces. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) emerges as an efficient method for modeling complex fluid systems involving rapidly evolving fluid-fluid and fluid-solid interfaces with complex geometries. In this work, we model droplet impact on flat solid substrates with well-defined wetting behavior using a two-phase axisymmetric LBM with high density and viscosity contrasts. We extend the two-dimensional Lee and Liu model to capture axisymmetric effect in the normal impact. First we compare the 2D axisymmetric results with the 2D and 3D results reported by Lee and Liu to probe the effect of axisymmetric terms. Then, we explore the effects of Weber number, Ohnesorge number, and droplet-surface equilibrium contact angle on the impact. The dynamic contact angle and spreading factor of the droplet during impact are investigated to qualitatively characterize the impact dynamics.

Examining the Factors That Contribute to Successful Database Application Implementation Using the Technology Acceptance Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nworji, Alexander O.

2013-01-01

Most organizations spend millions of dollars due to the impact of improperly implemented database application systems as evidenced by poor data quality problems. The purpose of this quantitative study was to use, and extend, the technology acceptance model (TAM) to assess the impact of information quality and technical quality factors on database…

Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport

Treesearch

Luxi Zhou; Kirk R. Baker; Sergey L. Napelenok; George Pouliot; Robert Elleman; Susan M. O' Neill; Shawn P. Urbanski; David C. Wong

2018-01-01

Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also for forecasting purposes. Ground and airborne measurements from a recent field experiment...

“Impact of CB6 and CB05TU chemical mechanisms on air quality”

EPA Science Inventory

“Impacts of CB6 and CB05TU chemical mechanisms on air quality”In this study, we incorporate the newly developed Carbon Bond chemical mechanism (CB6) into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQv5.0.1) and perform air quality model simulations with the CB6 and t...

An Imaging System for Satellite Hypervelocity Impact Debris Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraguez, M.; Liou, J.; Fitz-Coy, N.; Patankar, K.; Cowardin, H.

This paper discusses the design of an automated imaging system for size characterization of debris produced by the DebriSat hypervelocity impact test. The goal of the DebriSat project is to update satellite breakup models. A representative LEO satellite, DebriSat, was constructed and subjected to a hypervelocity impact test. The impact produced an estimated 85,000 debris fragments. The size distribution of these fragments is required to update the current satellite breakup models. An automated imaging system was developed for the size characterization of the debris fragments. The system uses images taken from various azimuth and elevation angles around the object to produce a 3D representation of the fragment via a space carving algorithm. The system consists of N point-and-shoot cameras attached to a rigid support structure that defines the elevation angle for each camera. The debris fragment is placed on a turntable that is incrementally rotated to desired azimuth angles. The number of images acquired can be varied based on the desired resolution. Appropriate background and lighting is used for ease of object detection. The system calibration and image acquisition process are automated to result in push-button operations. However, for quality assurance reasons, the system is semi-autonomous by design to ensure operator involvement. This paper describes the imaging system setup, calibration procedure, repeatability analysis, and the results of the debris characterization.

An Imaging System for Satellite Hypervelocity Impact Debris Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moraguez, Matthew; Patankar, Kunal; Fitz-Coy, Norman; Liou, J.-C.; Cowardin, Heather

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the design of an automated imaging system for size characterization of debris produced by the DebriSat hypervelocity impact test. The goal of the DebriSat project is to update satellite breakup models. A representative LEO satellite, DebriSat, was constructed and subjected to a hypervelocity impact test. The impact produced an estimated 85,000 debris fragments. The size distribution of these fragments is required to update the current satellite breakup models. An automated imaging system was developed for the size characterization of the debris fragments. The system uses images taken from various azimuth and elevation angles around the object to produce a 3D representation of the fragment via a space carving algorithm. The system consists of N point-and-shoot cameras attached to a rigid support structure that defines the elevation angle for each camera. The debris fragment is placed on a turntable that is incrementally rotated to desired azimuth angles. The number of images acquired can be varied based on the desired resolution. Appropriate background and lighting is used for ease of object detection. The system calibration and image acquisition process are automated to result in push-button operations. However, for quality assurance reasons, the system is semi-autonomous by design to ensure operator involvement. This paper describes the imaging system setup, calibration procedure, repeatability analysis, and the results of the debris characterization.

The Space Environmental Impact System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kihn, E. A.

2009-12-01

The Space Environmental Impact System (SEIS) is an operational tool for incorporating environmental data sets into DoD Modeling and Simulation (M&S) which allows for enhanced decision making regarding acquisitions, testing, operations and planning. The SEIS system creates, from the environmental archives and developed rule-base, a tool for describing the effects of the space environment on particular military systems, both historically and in real-time. The system uses data available over the web, and in particular data provided by NASA’s virtual observatory network, as well as modeled data generated specifically for this purpose. The rule base system developed to support SEIS is an open XML based model which can be extended to events from any environmental domain. This presentation will show how the SEIS tool allows users to easily and accurately evaluate the effect of space weather in terms that are meaningful to them as well as discuss the relevant standards used in its construction and go over lessons learned from fielding an operational environmental decision tool.

BUDGET IMPACT ANALYSIS OF BELIMUMAB IN TREATING SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS.

PubMed

Pierotti, Francesca; Palla, Iaria; Pippo, Lara; Lorenzoni, Valentina; Turchetti, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

The study evaluates the costs of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and the budget impact due to the introduction of belimumab in the Italian setting. Adaptation to the Italian setting of a budget impact model with a time horizon of 4 years (year 0 without belimumab, years 1-3 with belimumab) to compare treatment, administration, and clinical monitoring costs of standard therapy and of the alternative scenario in which belimumab is administered in addition to the standard therapy to the subgroup of patients selected according to the label approved by the European Medicines Agency. The model takes also into account the costs of flares. Over 3 years, belimumab is able to prevent cumulatively 1,111 severe flares and 3,631 nonsevere flares with a total saving for the Italian National Health System (NHS) of approximately €6.2 million. Budget impact ranges from €4.4 million in the first year to €20.3 million in the third year. The decrease in the number of flare partially counterbalances the costs of the new technology (impact attenuation of approximately 16 percent). These data elucidate the importance to control and monitor the disease progression and to prevent exacerbations, which are the major causes of the increase in costs paid by the NHS and by the society. The financial impact could be replicate on a regional basis, to inform local decision makers. Further developments are possible as the model does not consider the additional clinical and economic benefits of reduced damage accrual and slowed disease progression.

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of "Black Swans" with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems.

PubMed

Berner, Christine L; Staid, Andrea; Flage, Roger; Guikema, Seth D

2017-10-01

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Benefits of using a Social-Ecological Systems Approach to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective to examine wetland restoration helps decision-makers recognize interdependencies and relations between ecological and social components of coupled systems. Conceptual models are an invaluable tool to capture, visualize, and organize the key factors in complex social-ecological systems, but can be overwhelming to generate and lead to key concepts being overlooked if development is unstructured. Using a DPSIR approach (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Responses), conceptual models can be developed to link decision scenarios and stressors to impacts on ecosystem services. These impacts on priority ecosystem services can then be linked to changes in human health and well-being through benefit functions. Expert input and contributions across disciplines provides appropriate temporal and spatial scales for determination of targets, project implementation, and monitoring strategies. This approach is being applied to create descriptive SES models of two wetland restoration projects. The first, the dredging of a degraded estuarine channel and restoration of mangrove forests in Caño Martìn Peña in San Juan, Puerto Rico is in the planning stage. The second, the restoration of a former cranberry farm in Plymouth, Massachusetts has completed a large restoration of freshwater wetland, and is gearing up for a second phase. Through the development of conceptual models, we are connecting driving forces wi

Geochemical Constraints on the Size of the Moon-Forming Giant Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piet, Hélène; Badro, James; Gillet, Philippe

2017-12-01

Recent models involving the Moon-forming giant impact hypothesis have managed to reproduce the striking isotopic similarity between the two bodies, albeit using two extreme models: one involves a high-energy small impactor that makes the Moon out of Earth's proto-mantle; the other supposes a gigantic collision between two half-Earths creating the Earth-Moon system from both bodies. Here we modeled the geochemical influence of the giant impact on Earth's mantle and found that impactors larger than 15% of Earth mass result in mantles always violating the present-day concentrations of four refractory moderately siderophile trace elements (Ni, Co, Cr, and V). In the aftermath of the impact, our models cannot further discriminate between a fully and a partially molten bulk silicate Earth. Then, the preservation of primordial geochemical reservoirs predating the Moon remains the sole argument against a fully molten mantle after the Moon-forming impact.

Reentry survivability modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fudge, Michael L.; Maher, Robert L.

1997-10-01

Statistical methods for expressing the impact risk posed to space systems in general [and the International Space Station (ISS) in particular] by other resident space objects have been examined. One of the findings of this investigation is that there are legitimate physical modeling reasons for the common statistical expression of the collision risk. A combination of statistical methods and physical modeling is also used to express the impact risk posed by re-entering space systems to objects of interest (e.g., people and property) on Earth. One of the largest uncertainties in the expressing of this risk is the estimation of survivable material which survives reentry to impact Earth's surface. This point was recently demonstrated in dramatic fashion by the impact of an intact expendable launch vehicle (ELV) upper stage near a private residence in the continental United States. Since approximately half of the missions supporting ISS will utilize ELVs, it is appropriate to examine the methods used to estimate the amount and physical characteristics of ELV debris surviving reentry to impact Earth's surface. This paper examines reentry survivability estimation methodology, including the specific methodology used by Caiman Sciences' 'Survive' model. Comparison between empirical results (observations of objects which have been recovered on Earth after surviving reentry) and Survive estimates are presented for selected upper stage or spacecraft components and a Delta launch vehicle second stage.

Impact of water allocation strategies to manage groundwater resources in Western Australia: Equity and efficiency considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iftekhar, Md Sayed; Fogarty, James

2017-05-01

In many parts of the world groundwater is being depleting at an alarming rate. Where groundwater extraction is licenced, regulators often respond to resource depletion by reducing all individual licences by a fixed proportion. This approach can be effective in achieving a reduction in the volume of water extracted, but the approach is not efficient. In water resource management the issue of the equity-efficiency trade-off has been explored in a number of contexts, but not in the context of allocation from a groundwater system. To contribute to this knowledge gap we conduct an empirical case study for Western Australia's most important groundwater system: the Gnangara Groundwater System (GGS). Resource depletion is a serious issue for the GGS, and substantial reductions in groundwater extraction are required to stabilise the system. Using an individual-based farm optimization model we study both the overall impact and the distributional impact of a fixed percentage water allocation cut to horticulture sector licence holders. The model is parameterised using water licence specific data on farm area and water allocation. The modelling shows that much of the impact of water allocation reductions can be mitigated through changing the cropping mix and the irrigation technology used. The modelling also shows that the scope for gains through the aggregation of holdings into larger farms is much greater than the potential losses due to water allocation reductions. The impact of water allocation cuts is also shown to impact large farms more than small farms. For example, the expected loss in net revenue per ha for a 10-ha farm is around three times the expected loss per ha for a 1-ha farm; and the expected loss per ha for a 25-ha farm is around five times the expected loss per ha for a 1-ha farm.

A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Achim; Clothier, Reece A.; Silva, Jose

2017-11-01

There is much effort being directed towards the development of safety regulations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). National airworthiness authorities have advocated the adoption of a risk-based approach, whereby regulations are driven by the outcomes of a systematic process to assess and manage identified safety risks. Subsequently, models characterising the primary hazards associated with UAS operations have now become critical to the development of regulations and in turn, to the future of the industry. Key to the development of airworthiness regulations for UAS is a comprehensive understanding of the risks UAS operations pose to people and property on the ground. A comprehensive review of the literature identified 33 different models (and component sub models) used to estimate ground risk posed by UAS. These models comprise failure, impact location, recovery, stress, exposure, incident stress and harm sub-models. The underlying assumptions and treatment of uncertainties in each of these sub-models differ significantly between models, which can have a significant impact on the development of regulations. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in research into UAS ground risk modelling, discusses how the various sub-models relate to the different components of the regulation, and explores how model-uncertainties potentially impact the development of regulations for UAS.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Peter E.; Lewis, Matt J.; Freer, Jim; Cooper, David M.; Skinner, Christopher J.; Coulthard, Tom J.

2018-07-01

To mitigate against future changes to estuaries such as water quality, catchment and estuary models can be coupled to simulate the transport of harmful pathogenic viruses, pollutants and nutrients from their terrestrial sources, through the estuary and to the coast. To predict future changes to estuaries, daily mean river flow projections are typically used. We show that this approach cannot resolve higher frequency discharge events that have large impacts to estuarine dilution, contamination and recovery for two contrasting estuaries. We therefore characterise sub-daily scale flow variability and propagate this through an estuary model to provide robust estimates of impacts for the future. River flow data (35-year records at 15-min sampling) were used to characterise variabilities in storm hydrograph shapes and simulate the estuarine response. In particular, we modelled a fast-responding catchment-estuary system (Conwy, UK), where the natural variability in hydrograph shapes generated large variability in estuarine circulation that was not captured when using daily-averaged river forcing. In the extreme, the freshwater plume from a 'flash' flood (lasting <12 h) was underestimated by up to 100% - and the response to nutrient loading was underestimated further still. A model of a slower-responding system (Humber, UK), where hydrographs typically last 2-4 days, showed less variability in estuarine circulation and good approximation with daily-averaged flow forcing. Our result has implications for entire system impact modelling; when we determine future changes to estuaries, some systems will need higher resolution future river flow estimates.

Modeling of GIC Impacts in Different Time Scales, and Validation with Measurement Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shetye, K.; Birchfield, A.; Overbye, T. J.; Gannon, J. L.

2016-12-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) have mostly been associated with geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) originating from natural events such as solar coronal mass ejections. There is another, man-made, phenomenon that can induce GICs in the bulk power grid. Detonation of nuclear devices at high altitudes can give rise to electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) that induce electric fields at the earth's surface. EMPs cause three types of waves on different time scales, the slowest of which, E3, can induce GICs similar to the way GMDs do. The key difference between GMDs and EMPs is the rise time of the associated electric field. E3 electric fields are in the msec. to sec. range, whereas GMD electric fields are slower (sec. to min.). Similarly, the power grid and its components also operate and respond to disturbances in various time frames, right from electromagnetic transients (eg. lightning propagation) in the micro second range to steady state power flow ( hours). Hence, different power system component models need to be used to analyze the impacts of GICs caused by GMDs, and EMPs. For instance, for the slower GMD based GICs, a steady-state (static) analysis of the system is sufficient. That is, one does not need to model the dynamic components of a power system, such as the rotating machine of a generator, or generator controls such as exciters, etc. The latter become important in the case of an E3 EMP wave, which falls in the power system transient stability time frame of msec. to sec. This talk will first give an overview of the different time scales and models associated with power system operations, and where GMD and EMPs fit in. This is helpful to develop appropriate system models and test systems for analyzing impacts of GICs from various sources, and developing mitigation measures. Example test systems developed for GMD and EMP analysis, and their key modeling and analysis differences will be presented. After the modeling is discussed, results of validating simulated GICs with GIC measurements from a utility for a recent moderate GMD event will be shown, using NSF Earthscope derived electric fields. The end goal is to validate 1) power system models used for GICs, and 2) ground models to see whether 3D ground models provide better results than the hitherto-used 1D ground models.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

2018-03-01

Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

2005-01-01

The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

The Role of Peer Influence and Perceived Quality of Teaching in Faculty Acceptance of Web-Based Learning Management Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salajan, Florin D.; Welch, Anita G.; Ray, Chris M.; Peterson, Claudette

2015-01-01

This study's primary investigation is the impact of "peer influence" and "perceived quality of teaching" on faculty members' usage of web-based learning management systems within the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework. These factors are entered into an extended TAM as external variables impacting on the core constructs…

Impact of Change Management on Employee Behavior in a University Administrative Office

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Kendra

2017-01-01

This qualitative case study focused on the effect of a system implementation upgrade on employees' job performance within a central administration department of a major research university in the Southern United States. Review of literature revealed a lack of a specific model or process for system implementation upgrades and its impact on…

The role of simulation models in monitoring soil organic carbon storage and greenhouse gas mitigation potential in bioenergy cropping systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There is an increased demand on agricultural systems worldwide to provide food, fiber, and feedstock for the emerging bioenergy industry, raising legitimate concerns on the associated impacts of such intensification on the environment. Of the many ecosystem services that could be impacted by the la...

MobileODT: a case study of a novel approach to an mHealth-based model of sustainable impact

PubMed Central

Mink, Jonah

2016-01-01

A persistent challenge facing global health actors is ensuring that time-bound interventions are ultimately adopted and integrated into local health systems for long term health system strengthening and capacity building. This level of sustainability is rarely achieved with current models of global health intervention that rely on continuous injection of resources or persistent external presence on the ground. Presented here is a case study of a flipped approach to creating capacity and adoption through an engagement strategy centered around an innovative mHealth device and connected service. Through an impact-oriented business model, this mHealth solution engages stakeholders in a cohesive and interdependent network by appealing to the pain points for each actor throughout the health system. This particular intervention centers around the MobileODT, Inc. Enhanced Visual Assessment (EVA) System for enhanced visualization. While focused on challenges to cervical cancer screening and treatment services, the lessons learned are offered as a model for lateral translation into adjacent health condition verticals. PMID:28293590

Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

DOE PAGES

Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; ...

2013-10-08

A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10more » synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. Here in our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr -1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr -1 in North America to 7 Tg yr -1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems.« less

Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-26

Teixeira, J., Peng, M., Hogan, T.F., Pauley, R., 2002. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS): Forcing for ocean models...Impact of parameterized lee wave drag on the energy budget of an eddying global ocean model David S. Trossman a,⇑, Brian K. Arbic a, Stephen T...input and output terms in the total mechanical energy budget of a hybrid coordinate high-resolution global ocean general circulation model forced by winds

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagen, Scott C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; DeLorme, Denise E.; Yoskowitz, David

2017-01-01

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

A Systems Thinking approach to post-disaster restoration of maritime transportation systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lespier, Lizzette Pérez; Long, Suzanna K.; Shoberg, Thomas G.

2015-01-01

A Systems Thinking approach is used to examine elements of a maritime transportation system that are most likely to be impacted by an extreme event. The majority of the literature uses a high-level view that can fail to capture the damage at the sub-system elements. This work uses a system dynamics simulation for a better view and understanding of the Port of San Juan, Puerto Rico, as a whole system and uses Hurricane Georges (1998), as a representative disruptive event. The model focuses on the impacts of natural disasters at the sub-system level with a final goal of determining the sequence needed to restore an ocean-going port to its pre-event state. This work in progress details model development and outlines steps for using real-world information to assist maritime port manager planning and recommendations for best practices to mitigate disaster damage.

In vitro systems toxicology approach to investigate the effects of repeated cigarette smoke exposure on human buccal and gingival organotypic epithelial tissue cultures.

PubMed

Schlage, Walter K; Iskandar, Anita R; Kostadinova, Radina; Xiang, Yang; Sewer, Alain; Majeed, Shoaib; Kuehn, Diana; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Geertz, Marcel; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C

2014-10-01

Smoking has been associated with diseases of the lung, pulmonary airways and oral cavity. Cytologic, genomic and transcriptomic changes in oral mucosa correlate with oral pre-neoplasia, cancer and inflammation (e.g. periodontitis). Alteration of smoking-related gene expression changes in oral epithelial cells is similar to that in bronchial and nasal epithelial cells. Using a systems toxicology approach, we have previously assessed the impact of cigarette smoke (CS) seen as perturbations of biological processes in human nasal and bronchial organotypic epithelial culture models. Here, we report our further assessment using in vitro human oral organotypic epithelium models. We exposed the buccal and gingival organotypic epithelial tissue cultures to CS at the air-liquid interface. CS exposure was associated with increased secretion of inflammatory mediators, induction of cytochrome P450s activity and overall weak toxicity in both tissues. Using microarray technology, gene-set analysis and a novel computational modeling approach leveraging causal biological network models, we identified CS impact on xenobiotic metabolism-related pathways accompanied by a more subtle alteration in inflammatory processes. Gene-set analysis further indicated that the CS-induced pathways in the in vitro buccal tissue models resembled those in the in vivo buccal biopsies of smokers from a published dataset. These findings support the translatability of systems responses from in vitro to in vivo and demonstrate the applicability of oral organotypical tissue models for an impact assessment of CS on various tissues exposed during smoking, as well as for impact assessment of reduced-risk products.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

In vitro systems toxicology approach to investigate the effects of repeated cigarette smoke exposure on human buccal and gingival organotypic epithelial tissue cultures

PubMed Central

Schlage, Walter K.; Kostadinova, Radina; Xiang, Yang; Sewer, Alain; Majeed, Shoaib; Kuehn, Diana; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Geertz, Marcel; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

2014-01-01

Smoking has been associated with diseases of the lung, pulmonary airways and oral cavity. Cytologic, genomic and transcriptomic changes in oral mucosa correlate with oral pre-neoplasia, cancer and inflammation (e.g. periodontitis). Alteration of smoking-related gene expression changes in oral epithelial cells is similar to that in bronchial and nasal epithelial cells. Using a systems toxicology approach, we have previously assessed the impact of cigarette smoke (CS) seen as perturbations of biological processes in human nasal and bronchial organotypic epithelial culture models. Here, we report our further assessment using in vitro human oral organotypic epithelium models. We exposed the buccal and gingival organotypic epithelial tissue cultures to CS at the air–liquid interface. CS exposure was associated with increased secretion of inflammatory mediators, induction of cytochrome P450s activity and overall weak toxicity in both tissues. Using microarray technology, gene-set analysis and a novel computational modeling approach leveraging causal biological network models, we identified CS impact on xenobiotic metabolism-related pathways accompanied by a more subtle alteration in inflammatory processes. Gene-set analysis further indicated that the CS-induced pathways in the in vitro buccal tissue models resembled those in the in vivo buccal biopsies of smokers from a published dataset. These findings support the translatability of systems responses from in vitro to in vivo and demonstrate the applicability of oral organotypical tissue models for an impact assessment of CS on various tissues exposed during smoking, as well as for impact assessment of reduced-risk products. PMID:25046638

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Operations and Future Development of the U.S. Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S. M.; Averyt, K.; Macknick, J.; Meldrum, J.; Sullivan, P.

2014-12-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate reliability concerns for the power sector through changes in water availability and air temperatures. The power sector is responsible for 41% of U.S. freshwater withdrawals, primarily for power plant cooling needs, and any changes in the water available for the power sector, given increasing competition among water users, could affect decisions about new power plant builds and reliable operations for existing generators. Similarly, increases in air temperatures can reduce power plant efficiencies, which in turn increases fuel consumption as well as water withdrawal and consumption rates. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water runoff projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data are applied to surface water available to generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water availability for the 134 electricity balancing regions in the ReEDS model. In addition, air temperature changes are considered for their impacts on electricity load, transmission capacity, and power plant efficiencies and water use rates. Mean climate projections have only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water access to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water access purchases and a greater share of water acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing resilience planning even as precise prediction of extremes remains difficult. Increased research is necessary to understand hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of populations to characterize the risk of shocks and mechanisms by which unexpected losses drive land-use transitions.

Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.

2011-01-01

The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

Lumbar load attenuation for rotorcraft occupants using a design methodology for the seat impact energy-absorbing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, Rasoul; Beheshti, Hamid K.; Lankarani, Hamid M.

2012-12-01

Aircraft occupant crash-safety considerations require a minimum cushion thickness to limit the relative vertical motion of the seat-pelvis during high vertical impact loadings in crash landings or accidents. In military aircraft and helicopter seat design, due to the potential for high vertical accelerations in crash scenarios, the seat system must be provided with an energy absorber to attenuate the acceleration level sustained by the occupants. Because of the limited stroke available for the seat structure, the design of the energy absorber becomes a trade-off problem between minimizing the stroke and maximizing the energy absorption. The available stroke must be used to prevent bottoming out of the seat as well as to absorb maximum impact energy to protect the occupant. In this study, the energy-absorbing system in a rotorcraft seat design is investigated using a mathematical model of the occupant/seat system. Impact theories between interconnected bodies in multibody mechanical systems are utilized to study the impact between the seat pan and the occupant. Experimental responses of the seat system and the occupant are utilized to validate the results from this study for civil and military helicopters according to FAR 23 and 25 and MIL-S-58095 requirements. A model for the load limiter is proposed to minimize the lumbar load for the occupant by minimizing the relative velocity between the seat pan and the occupant's pelvis. The modified energy absorber/load limiter is then implemented for the seat structure so that it absorbs the energy of impact in an effective manner and below the tolerable limit for the occupant in a minimum stroke. Results show that for a designed stroke, the level of occupant lumbar spine injury would be significantly attenuated using this modified energy-absorber system.

Systems Impact: Issues and Trends in Improving School Outcomes for All Learners through Multitier Instructional Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chard, David J.

2013-01-01

The majority of school districts implementing response to intervention use a systemwide, multitier model of delivery. This article describes the common features of multitier models and discusses the emerging evidence of their effectiveness. In addition, specific factors that schools should consider to enhance effective implementation of systemic,…

Engineering and Techno-Economic Assessment | Concentrating Solar Power |

Science.gov Websites

performance and technology deployment, and investigates the environmental benefits and impacts of utility System (ReEDS) is a software model used to determine energy and environmental impacts. Learn more[BROKEN estimates the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the

Nondestructive Characterization of Low-Velocity Impact Damage in Protective Ceramic Components

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

for direct improvement of protective systems. 15. SUBJECT TERMS impact, damage, ultrasound, quantitative, modeling 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF...21 (4), 245–265. 5. McMichael, S.; Fischer, S. Understanding Materials with Instrumented Impact. ME 1989, 47–50. 6. Chacon -Nava, J. G.; Stott, F

Engine System Model Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Karl W.; Simpson, Steven P.

2006-01-01

In order to design, analyze, and evaluate conceptual Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine systems, an improved NTP design and analysis tool has been developed. The NTP tool utilizes the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) system tool and many of the routines from the Enabler reactor model found in Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Improved non-nuclear component models and an external shield model were added to the tool. With the addition of a nearly complete system reliability model, the tool will provide performance, sizing, and reliability data for NERVA-Derived NTP engine systems. A new detailed reactor model is also being developed and will replace Enabler. The new model will allow more flexibility in reactor geometry and include detailed thermal hydraulics and neutronics models. A description of the reactor, component, and reliability models is provided. Another key feature of the modeling process is the use of comprehensive spreadsheets for each engine case. The spreadsheets include individual worksheets for each subsystem with data, plots, and scaled figures, making the output very useful to each engineering discipline. Sample performance and sizing results with the Enabler reactor model are provided including sensitivities. Before selecting an engine design, all figures of merit must be considered including the overall impacts on the vehicle and mission. Evaluations based on key figures of merit of these results and results with the new reactor model will be performed. The impacts of clustering and external shielding will also be addressed. Over time, the reactor model will be upgraded to design and analyze other NTP concepts with CERMET and carbide fuel cores.

Systems biology for molecular life sciences and its impact in biomedicine.

PubMed

Medina, Miguel Ángel

2013-03-01

Modern systems biology is already contributing to a radical transformation of molecular life sciences and biomedicine, and it is expected to have a real impact in the clinical setting in the next years. In this review, the emergence of systems biology is contextualized with a historic overview, and its present state is depicted. The present and expected future contribution of systems biology to the development of molecular medicine is underscored. Concerning the present situation, this review includes a reflection on the "inflation" of biological data and the urgent need for tools and procedures to make hidden information emerge. Descriptions of the impact of networks and models and the available resources and tools for applying them in systems biology approaches to molecular medicine are provided as well. The actual current impact of systems biology in molecular medicine is illustrated, reviewing two cases, namely, those of systems pharmacology and cancer systems biology. Finally, some of the expected contributions of systems biology to the immediate future of molecular medicine are commented.

A research program to assess the impact of the electromagnetic pulse on electric power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnell, B. W.; Barnes, P. R.

A strong electromagnetic pulse (EMP) with an electric-field component on the order of tens of kilovolts per meter is produced by a nuclear detonation in or above the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview and a summary of the results to date of a program formulated to address the research and development of technologies and systems required to assess and reduce the impact of EMP on electric power systems. The technologies and systems being considered include simulation models, methods of assessment, definition of required experiments and data, development of protective hardware, and the creation or revision of operating and control procedures. Results to date include the development of relatively simple unclassified EMP environment models, the development of methods for extending EMP coupling models to the large transmission and distribution network associated with the electric power system, and the performance of a parametric study of HEMP induced surges using an appropriate EMP environment. An experiment to investigate the effect of corona on the coupling of EMP to conductors has been defined and has been performed in an EMP simulator. Experiments to determine the response of key components to simulated EMP surges and an investigation of the impact of steep-front, short-duration impulse on a selected number of the insulation systems used in electric power systems apparatus are being performed.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Torsional vibration measurements on rotating shaft system using laser doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Ling; Yang, Shixi; Gan, Chunbiao

2012-11-01

In this work, a laser torsional vibrameter was used to measure the torsion vibration of a rotating shaft system under electrical network impact. Based on the principles of laser Doppler velocimetry, the laser torsional vibrometer (LTV) are non-contact measurement of torsional oscillation of rotating shafts, offering significant advantages over conventional techniques. Furthermore, a highly complex shafting system is analyzed by a modified Riccati torsional transfer matrix. The system is modeled as a chain consisting of an elastic spring with concentrated mass points, and the multi-segments lumped mass model is established for this shafting system. By the modified Riccati torsional transfer matrix method, an accumulated calculation is effectively eliminated to obtain the natural frequencies. The electrical network impacts can activize the torsional vibration of shaft system, and the activized torsion vibration frequencies contained the natural frequencies of shaft system. The torsional vibrations of the shaft system were measured under electrical network impacts in laser Doppler torsional vibrometer. By comparisons, the natural frequencies by measurement were consistent with the values by calculation. The results verify the instrument is robust, user friendly and can be calibrated in situ. The laser torsional vibrometer represents a significant step forward in rotating machinery diagnostics.

The Proposed Change Strategy to Embed Energy Stewardship into the Army’s Culture

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-02

36 APPENDIX A: BURKE- LITWIN ORGANIZATION PERFORMANCE AND CHANGE MODEL...analysis, senior leaders take a systemic approach and use a model (e.g., Burke- Litwin Organization Performance and Change Model) as a guide to...identify what needs to change in the organization and how the change is likely to impact the institution’s systems (see Appendix A: Burke- Litwin Model

Predicting on-site environmental impacts of municipal engineering works

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gangolells, Marta, E-mail: marta.gangolells@upc.edu; Casals, Miquel, E-mail: miquel.casals@upc.edu; Forcada, Núria, E-mail: nuria.forcada@upc.edu

2014-01-15

The research findings fill a gap in the body of knowledge by presenting an effective way to evaluate the significance of on-site environmental impacts of municipal engineering works prior to the construction stage. First, 42 on-site environmental impacts of municipal engineering works were identified by means of a process-oriented approach. Then, 46 indicators and their corresponding significance limits were determined on the basis of a statistical analysis of 25 new-build and remodelling municipal engineering projects. In order to ensure the objectivity of the assessment process, direct and indirect indicators were always based on quantitative data from the municipal engineering projectmore » documents. Finally, two case studies were analysed and found to illustrate the practical use of the proposed model. The model highlights the significant environmental impacts of a particular municipal engineering project prior to the construction stage. Consequently, preventive actions can be planned and implemented during on-site activities. The results of the model also allow a comparison of proposed municipal engineering projects and alternatives with respect to the overall on-site environmental impact and the absolute importance of a particular environmental aspect. These findings are useful within the framework of the environmental impact assessment process, as they help to improve the identification and evaluation of on-site environmental aspects of municipal engineering works. The findings may also be of use to construction companies that are willing to implement an environmental management system or simply wish to improve on-site environmental performance in municipal engineering projects. -- Highlights: • We present a model to predict the environmental impacts of municipal engineering works. • It highlights significant on-site environmental impacts prior to the construction stage. • Findings are useful within the environmental impact assessment process. • They also help contractors to implement environmental management systems.« less

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Modeling the influence of septic systems on fecal bacteria load in a suburban watershed in Georgia (GWRC 2017)

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed scale models such as the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) are promising tools for studying the impacts of septic systems on water quality and quantity. In this study, SWAT was used to assess the influence of septic systems on bacterial loads in a suburban watershed...

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

devastating impact on coastlines throughout the United States. In order to accurately understand the impacts of storm surges there needs to be an effective ...model. One of the governing systems of equations used to model storm surges’ effects is the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). In this thesis, we solve the...closer to the shoreline. In our simulation, we also learned of the effects spurious waves can have on the results. Due to boundary conditions, a

Passage Key Inlet, Florida; CMS Modeling and Borrow Site Impact Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Impact Analysis by Kelly R. Legault and Sirisha Rayaprolu PURPOSE: This Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) describes the...use of a nested Coastal Modeling System (CMS) model for Passage Key Inlet, which is one of the connections between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay...driven sediment transport at Passage Key Inlet. This analysis resulted in issuing a new Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) permit to

A comparative study between experimental results and numerical predictions of multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Peck, Jeffrey A.

1992-01-01

Over the last three decades, multiwall structures have been analyzed extensively, primarily through experiment, as a means of increasing the protection afforded to spacecraft structure. However, as structural configurations become more varied, the number of tests required to characterize their response increases dramatically. As an alternative, numerical modeling of high-speed impact phenomena is often being used to predict the response of a variety of structural systems under impact loading conditions. This paper presents the results of a preliminary numerical/experimental investigation of the hypervelocity impact response of multiwall structures. The results of experimental high-speed impact tests are compared against the predictions of the HULL hydrodynamic computer code. It is shown that the hypervelocity impact response characteristics of a specific system cannot be accurately predicted from a limited number of HULL code impact simulations. However, if a wide range of impact loadings conditions are considered, then the ballistic limit curve of the system based on the entire series of numerical simulations can be used as a relatively accurate indication of actual system response.

Application of economic impact analysis to a local public health agency and its "Academic Health Department".

PubMed

Livingood, Wiliiam C; Coughlin, Susan; Bowman, Walter; Bryant, Thomas; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

Public health systems are stressed by increasing demands and inadequate resources. This study was designed to demonstrate how economic impact analysis can estimate the economic value of a local public health system's infrastructure as well as the economic assets of an "Academic Health Department" model. This study involved the secondary analysis of publicly available data on health department finances and employment using proprietary software specifically designed to assess economic impacts. The health department's impact on the local community was estimated at over 100 million dollars, exceeding the economic impact of other recently studied local industries with no additional costs to local taxpayers.

Feeder Voltage Regulation with High-Penetration PV Using Advanced Inverters and a Distribution Management System: A Duke Energy Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Giraldez, Julieta; Gruchalla, Kenny

2016-11-01

Duke Energy, Alstom Grid, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory teamed up to better understand the impacts of solar photovoltaics (PV) on distribution system operations. The core goal of the project is to compare the operational - specifically, voltage regulation - impacts of three classes of PV inverter operations: 1.) Active power only (Baseline); 2.) Local inverter control (e.g., PF...not equal...1, Q(V), etc.); and 3.) Integrated volt-VAR control (centralized through the distribution management system). These comparisons were made using multiple approaches, each of which represents an important research-and-development effort on its own: a) Quasi-steady-state time-series modeling for approximately 1 yearmore » of operations using the Alstom eTerra (DOTS) system as a simulation engine, augmented by Python scripting for scenario and time-series control and using external models for an advanced inverter; b) Power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) testing of a 500-kVA-class advanced inverter and traditional voltage regulating equipment. This PHIL testing used cosimulation to link full-scale feeder simulation using DOTS in real time to hardware testing; c) Advanced visualization to provide improved insights into time-series results and other PV operational impacts; and d) Cost-benefit analysis to compare the financial and business-model impacts of each integration approach.« less

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

2012-12-01

Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

Toxicity data for modeling impacts of oil components in an Arctic ecosystem.

PubMed

Olsen, G H; Klok, C; Hendriks, A J; Geraudie, P; De Hoop, L; De Laender, F; Farmen, E; Grøsvik, B E; Hansen, B H; Hjorth, M; Jansen, C R; Nordtug, T; Ravagnan, E; Viaene, K; Carroll, J

2013-09-01

Ecological impact assessment modeling systems are valuable support tools for managing impacts from commercial activities on marine habitats and species. The inclusion of toxic effects modeling in these systems is predicated on the availability and quality of ecotoxicology data. Here we report on a data gathering exercise to obtain toxic effects data on oil compounds for a selection of cold-water marine species of fish and plankton associated with the Barents Sea ecosystem. Effects data were collated from historical and contemporary literature resources for the endpoints mortality, development, growth, bioaccumulation and reproduction. Evaluating the utility and applicability of these data for modeling, we find that data coverage is limited to a sub-set of the required endpoints. There is a need for new experimental studies for zooplankton focused on the endpoints development and bioaccumulation and for larvae and juvenile fish focused on growth and development. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.

PubMed

Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni

2016-10-01

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accessible Modelling of Complexity in Health (AMoCH) and associated data flows: asthma as an exemplar.

PubMed

Liyanage, Harshana; Luzi, Daniela; De Lusignan, Simon; Pecoraro, Fabrizio; McNulty, Richard; Tamburis, Oscar; Krause, Paul; Rigby, Michael; Blair, Mitch

2016-04-18

Background Modelling is an important part of information science. Models are abstractions of reality. We use models in the following contexts: (1) to describe the data and information flows in clinical practice to information scientists, (2) to compare health systems and care pathways, (3) to understand how clinical cases are recorded in record systems and (4) to model health care business models.Asthma is an important condition associated with a substantial mortality and morbidity. However, there are difficulties in determining who has the condition, making both its incidence and prevalence uncertain.Objective To demonstrate an approach for modelling complexity in health using asthma prevalence and incidence as an exemplar.Method The four steps in our process are:1. Drawing a rich picture, following Checkland's soft systems methodology;2. Constructing data flow diagrams (DFDs);3. Creating Unified Modelling Language (UML) use case diagrams to describe the interaction of the key actors with the system;4. Activity diagrams, either UML activity diagram or business process modelling notation diagram.Results Our rich picture flagged the complexity of factors that might impact on asthma diagnosis. There was consensus that the principle issue was that there were undiagnosed and misdiagnosed cases as well as correctly diagnosed. Genetic predisposition to atopy; exposure to environmental triggers; impact of respiratory health on earnings or ability to attend education or participate in sport, charities, pressure groups and the pharmaceutical industry all increased the likelihood of a diagnosis of asthma. Stigma and some factors within the health system diminished the likelihood of a diagnosis. The DFDs and other elements focused on better case finding.Conclusions This approach flagged the factors that might impact on the reported prevalence or incidence of asthma. The models suggested that applying selection criteria may improve the specificity of new or confirmed diagnosis.

Impact of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

EIA Publications

2000-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

Modeling drop impacts on inclined flowing soap films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Saikat; Yawar, Ali; Concha, Andres; Bandi, Mahesh

2015-11-01

Small drops impinging on soap films flowing at an angle primarily exhibit three fundamental regimes of post-impact dynamics: (a) the drop bounces off the film surface, (b) it coalesces with the downstream flow, and (c) it pierces through the film. During impact, the drop deforms along with a simultaneous, almost elastic deformation of the film transverse to the stream direction. Hence, the governing dynamics for this interaction present the rare opportunity to explore the in-tandem effects of elasticity and hydrodynamics alike. In this talk, we outline the analytical framework to study the drop impact dynamics. The model assumes a deformable drop and a deformable three-dimensional soap film and invokes a parametric study to qualify the three mentioned impact types. The physical parameters include the impact angle, drop impact speed, and the diameters of the drop prior to and during impact when it deforms and spreads out. Our model system offers a path towards optimization of interactions between a spray and a flowing liquid.

Cost effectiveness of recycling: a systems model.

PubMed

Tonjes, David J; Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

2013-11-01

Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-11-01

SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

Global behavior of a vibro-impact system with asymmetric clearances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guofang; Ding, Wangcai

2018-06-01

A simple dynamic model of a vibro-impact system subjected to harmonic excitation with two asymmetric clearances is considered. The Semi-Analytical Method for getting periodic solutions of the vibro-impact system is proposed. Diversity and evolution of the fundamental periodic impact motions are analyzed. The formation mechanism of the complete chatting-impact periodic motion with sticking motion by the influence of gazing bifurcation is analyzed. The transitional law of periodic motions in the periodical inclusions area is presented. The coexistence of periodic motions and the extreme sensitivity of the initial value within the high frequency region are studied. The global distribution of the periodic and chaos motions of the system is obtained by the state-parameter space co-simulation method which very few have considered before. The distribution of the attractor and the corresponding attracting domain corresponding to different periodic motions are also studied.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

A Generalized Orthotropic Elasto-Plastic Material Model for Impact Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffarth, Canio

Composite materials are now beginning to provide uses hitherto reserved for metals in structural systems such as airframes and engine containment systems, wraps for repair and rehabilitation, and ballistic/blast mitigation systems. These structural systems are often subjected to impact loads and there is a pressing need for accurate prediction of deformation, damage and failure. There are numerous material models that have been developed to analyze the dynamic impact response of polymer matrix composites. However, there are key features that are missing in those models that prevent them from providing accurate predictive capabilities. In this dissertation, a general purpose orthotropic elasto-plastic computational constitutive material model has been developed to predict the response of composites subjected to high velocity impacts. The constitutive model is divided into three components - deformation model, damage model and failure model, with failure to be added at a later date. The deformation model generalizes the Tsai-Wu failure criteria and extends it using a strain-hardening-based orthotropic yield function with a non-associative flow rule. A strain equivalent formulation is utilized in the damage model that permits plastic and damage calculations to be uncoupled and capture the nonlinear unloading and local softening of the stress-strain response. A diagonal damage tensor is defined to account for the directionally dependent variation of damage. However, in composites it has been found that loading in one direction can lead to damage in multiple coordinate directions. To account for this phenomena, the terms in the damage matrix are semi-coupled such that the damage in a particular coordinate direction is a function of the stresses and plastic strains in all of the coordinate directions. The overall framework is driven by experimental tabulated temperature and rate-dependent stress-strain data as well as data that characterizes the damage matrix and failure. The developed theory has been implemented in a commercial explicit finite element analysis code, LS-DYNARTM, as MAT213. Several verification and validation tests using a commonly available carbon-fiber composite, Toyobo's T800/F3900, have been carried and the results show that the theory and implementation are efficient, robust and accurate.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

On the Impact of Execution Models: A Case Study in Computational Chemistry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

2015-05-25

Efficient utilization of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms is an important and complex problem. Execution models, abstract descriptions of the dynamic runtime behavior of the execution stack, have significant impact on the utilization of HPC systems. Using a computational chemistry kernel as a case study and a wide variety of execution models combined with load balancing techniques, we explore the impact of execution models on the utilization of an HPC system. We demonstrate a 50 percent improvement in performance by using work stealing relative to a more traditional static scheduling approach. We also use a novel semi-matching technique for load balancingmore » that has comparable performance to a traditional hypergraph-based partitioning implementation, which is computationally expensive. Using this study, we found that execution model design choices and assumptions can limit critical optimizations such as global, dynamic load balancing and finding the correct balance between available work units and different system and runtime overheads. With the emergence of multi- and many-core architectures and the consequent growth in the complexity of HPC platforms, we believe that these lessons will be beneficial to researchers tuning diverse applications on modern HPC platforms, especially on emerging dynamic platforms with energy-induced performance variability.« less

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCarty, Will; Jedlovec, Gary; Miller, Timothy L.

2009-01-01

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.

PubMed

Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

2014-06-28

The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system--System 4--has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981-2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid-latitude circulation regimes over the Pacific-North America region.

Modeling of power electronic systems with EMTP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tam, Kwa-Sur; Dravid, Narayan V.

1989-01-01

In view of the potential impact of power electronics on power systems, there is need for a computer modeling/analysis tool to perform simulation studies on power systems with power electronic components as well as to educate engineering students about such systems. The modeling of the major power electronic components of the NASA Space Station Freedom Electric Power System is described along with ElectroMagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) and it is demonstrated that EMTP can serve as a very useful tool for teaching, design, analysis, and research in the area of power systems with power electronic components. EMTP modeling of power electronic circuits is described and simulation results are presented.

Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

2013-12-01

Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2015-04-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrate concentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be a valuable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

Decomposing climate-induced temperature and water effects on the expansion and operation of the US electricity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Eurek, K.; Macknick, J.; Steinberg, D. C.; Averyt, K.; Badger, A.; Livneh, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change has the potential to affect the supply and demands of the U.S. power sector. Rising air temperatures can affect the seasonal and total demand for electricity, alter the thermal efficiency of power plants, and lower the maximum capacity of electric transmission lines. Changes in hydrology can affect seasonal and total availability of water used for power plant operations. Prior studies have examined some climate impacts on the electricity sector, but there has been no systematic study quantifying and comparing the importance of these climate-induced effects in isolation and in combination. Here, we perform a systematic assessment using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity sector model in combination with downscaled climate results from four models in the CMIP5 archive that provide contrasting temperature and precipitation trends for key regions in the U.S. The ReEDS model captures dynamic climate and hydrological resource data .when choosing the cost optimal mix of generation resources necessary to balance supply and demand for electricity. We examine how different climate-induced changes in air temperature and water availability, considered in isolation and in combination, may affect energy and economic outcomes at a regional and national level from the present through 2050. Results indicate that temperature-induced impacts on electricity consumption show consistent trends nationwide across all climate scenarios. Hydrological impacts and variability differ by model and tend to have a minor effect on national electricity trends, but can be important determinants regionally. Taken together, this suggests that isolated climate change impacts on the electricity system depend on the geographic scale of interest - the effect of rising temperatures on demand, which is qualitatively robust to the choice of climate model, largely determines impacts on generation, capacity and cost at the national level, whereas other impact pathways may dominate at regional level.

Dynamic Modeling and Grid Interaction of a Tidal and River Generator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muljadi, Eduard; Gevorgian, Vahan; Donegan, James

This presentation provides a high-level overview of the deployment of a river generator installed in a small system. The turbine dynamics of a river generator, electrical generator, and power converter are modeled in detail. Various simulations can be exercised, and the impact of different control algorithms, failures of power switches, and corresponding impacts can be examined.

Development and Exploration of the Core-Corona Model of Imploding Plasma Loads.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

cal relaxation processes can maintain an isothermal system . The final constraint in the original core-corona model equations was that of quasi-static...on the energy balance. The detailed physics of these upgrades and their improvement of the quantitative modeling of the system are discussed in the...participate in lengthening the radiaton pulse. 18 If such motion is favored in these systems , the impact on the radiation pulse length could be

Evaluation of the DEIMS (Defense Economic Impact Modeling System) System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-07-01

AOORESS(H d~fereet m Caii~dl Offiee) IS. SECURITY CLASS. (of Wd e~w Vr OUSDRE (DoD-IDA Management Office) UCASFE 1801 N. Beauregard Street UCASFE...Defense Spending Mr. Paul Dickens, PA&E Labor Demand - Dr. David Blond Conclusion - Dr. David L. Mdicol 11:00 Break SESSION III - IMPACT OF DEFENSE...presented highlights of the industrial and labor impact of defense spending during. . 1985-89. Mr. Paul Dickens then analysed trends in the I- .""L- " ’•L

Environmental performance of green building code and certification systems.

PubMed

Suh, Sangwon; Tomar, Shivira; Leighton, Matthew; Kneifel, Joshua

2014-01-01

We examined the potential life-cycle environmental impact reduction of three green building code and certification (GBCC) systems: LEED, ASHRAE 189.1, and IgCC. A recently completed whole-building life cycle assessment (LCA) database of NIST was applied to a prototype building model specification by NREL. TRACI 2.0 of EPA was used for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). The results showed that the baseline building model generates about 18 thousand metric tons CO2-equiv. of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and consumes 6 terajoule (TJ) of primary energy and 328 million liter of water over its life-cycle. Overall, GBCC-compliant building models generated 0% to 25% less environmental impacts than the baseline case (average 14% reduction). The largest reductions were associated with acidification (25%), human health-respiratory (24%), and global warming (GW) (22%), while no reductions were observed for ozone layer depletion (OD) and land use (LU). The performances of the three GBCC-compliant building models measured in life-cycle impact reduction were comparable. A sensitivity analysis showed that the comparative results were reasonably robust, although some results were relatively sensitive to the behavioral parameters, including employee transportation and purchased electricity during the occupancy phase (average sensitivity coefficients 0.26-0.29).

Study on the Impact Resistance of Bionic Layered Composite of TiC-TiB2/Al from Al-Ti-B4C System

PubMed Central

Zhao, Qian; Liang, Yunhong; Zhang, Zhihui; Li, Xiujuan; Ren, Luquan

2016-01-01

Mechanical property and impact resistance mechanism of bionic layered composite was investigated. Due to light weight and high strength property, white clam shell was chosen as bionic model for design of bionic layered composite. The intercoupling model between hard layer and soft layer was identical to the layered microstructure and hardness tendency of the white clam shell, which connected the bionic design and fabrication. TiC-TiB2 reinforced Al matrix composites fabricated from Al-Ti-B4C system with 40 wt. %, 50 wt. % and 30 wt. % Al contents were treated as an outer layer, middle layer and inner layer in hard layers. Pure Al matrix was regarded as a soft layer. Compared with traditional homogenous Al-Ti-B4C composite, bionic layered composite exhibited high mechanical properties including flexural strength, fracture toughness, compressive strength and impact toughness. The intercoupling effect of layered structure and combination model of hard and soft played a key role in high impact resistance of the bionic layered composite, proving the feasibility and practicability of the bionic model of a white clam shell. PMID:28773827

Environmental characteristics comparison of Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries under the uncertainty of cycle performance.

PubMed

Yu, Yajuan; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Huang, Kai; Wang, Lijing; Bao, Liying; Wu, Feng

2012-08-30

An environmental impact assessment model for secondary batteries under uncertainty is proposed, which is a combination of the life cycle assessment (LCA), Eco-indicator 99 system and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The LCA can describe the environmental impact mechanism of secondary batteries, whereas the cycle performance was simulated through MCS. The composite LCA-MCS model was then carried out to estimate the environmental impact of two kinds of experimental batteries. Under this kind of standard assessment system, a comparison between different batteries could be accomplished. The following results were found: (1) among the two selected batteries, the environmental impact of the Li-ion battery is lower than the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery, especially with regards to resource consumption and (2) the lithium ion (Li-ion) battery is less sensitive to cycle uncertainty, its environmental impact fluctuations are small when compared with the selected Ni-MH battery and it is more environmentally friendly. The assessment methodology and model proposed in this paper can also be used for any other secondary batteries and they can be helpful in the development of environmentally friendly secondary batteries. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational Modeling of Pathophysiologic Responses to Exercise in Fontan Patients

PubMed Central

Kung, Ethan; Perry, James C.; Davis, Christopher; Migliavacca, Francesco; Pennati, Giancarlo; Giardini, Alessandro; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison

2014-01-01

Reduced exercise capacity is nearly universal among Fontan patients. Although many factors have emerged as possible contributors, the degree to which each impacts the overall hemodynamics is largely unknown. Computational modeling provides a means to test hypotheses of causes of exercise intolerance via precisely controlled virtual experiments and measurements. We quantified the physiological impacts of commonly encountered, clinically relevant dysfunctions introduced to the exercising Fontan system via a previously developed lumped-parameter model of Fontan exercise. Elevated pulmonary arterial pressure was observed in all cases of dysfunction, correlated with lowered cardiac output, and often mediated by elevated atrial pressure. Pulmonary vascular resistance was not the most significant factor affecting exercise performance as measured by cardiac output. In the absence of other dysfunctions, atrioventricular valve insufficiency alone had significant physiological impact, especially under exercise demands. The impact of isolated dysfunctions can be linearly summed to approximate the combined impact of several dysfunctions occurring in the same system. A single dominant cause of exercise intolerance was not identified, though several hypothesized dysfunctions each led to variable decreases in performance. Computational predictions of performance improvement associated with various interventions should be weighed against procedural risks and potential complications, contributing to improvements in routine patient management protocol. PMID:25260878

Applying Model Based Systems Engineering to NASA's Space Communications Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhasin, Kul; Barnes, Patrick; Reinert, Jessica; Golden, Bert

2013-01-01

System engineering practices for complex systems and networks now require that requirement, architecture, and concept of operations product development teams, simultaneously harmonize their activities to provide timely, useful and cost-effective products. When dealing with complex systems of systems, traditional systems engineering methodology quickly falls short of achieving project objectives. This approach is encumbered by the use of a number of disparate hardware and software tools, spreadsheets and documents to grasp the concept of the network design and operation. In case of NASA's space communication networks, since the networks are geographically distributed, and so are its subject matter experts, the team is challenged to create a common language and tools to produce its products. Using Model Based Systems Engineering methods and tools allows for a unified representation of the system in a model that enables a highly related level of detail. To date, Program System Engineering (PSE) team has been able to model each network from their top-level operational activities and system functions down to the atomic level through relational modeling decomposition. These models allow for a better understanding of the relationships between NASA's stakeholders, internal organizations, and impacts to all related entities due to integration and sustainment of existing systems. Understanding the existing systems is essential to accurate and detailed study of integration options being considered. In this paper, we identify the challenges the PSE team faced in its quest to unify complex legacy space communications networks and their operational processes. We describe the initial approaches undertaken and the evolution toward model based system engineering applied to produce Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) PSE products. We will demonstrate the practice of Model Based System Engineering applied to integrating space communication networks and the summary of its results and impact. We will highlight the insights gained by applying the Model Based System Engineering and provide recommendations for its applications and improvements.

Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.

2007-12-01

Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.

The Role of Demand Response in Reducing Water-Related Power Plant Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Brinkman, G.; Zhou, E.; O'Connell, M.; Newmark, R. L.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S. M.

2015-12-01

The electric sector depends on readily available water supplies for reliable and efficient operation. Elevated water temperatures or low water levels can trigger regulatory or plant-level decisions to curtail power generation, which can affect system cost and reliability. In the past decade, dozens of power plants in the U.S. have curtailed generation due to water temperatures and water shortages. Curtailments occur during the summer, when temperatures are highest and there is greatest demand for electricity. Climate change could alter the availability and temperature of water resources, exacerbating these issues. Constructing alternative cooling systems to address vulnerabilities can be capital intensive and can also affect power plant efficiencies. Demand response programs are being implemented by electric system planners and operators to reduce and shift electricity demands from peak usage periods to other times of the day. Demand response programs can also play a role in reducing water-related power sector vulnerabilities during summer months. Traditionally, production cost modeling and demand response analyses do not include water resources. In this effort, we integrate an electricity production cost modeling framework with water-related impacts on power plants in a test system to evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on power system costs and reliability. Specifically, we i) quantify the cost and reliability implications of incorporating water resources into production cost modeling, ii) evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on reducing system costs and vulnerabilities, and iii) consider sensitivity analyses with cooling systems to highlight a range of potential benefits of demand response measures. Impacts from climate change on power plant performance and water resources are discussed. Results provide key insights to policymakers and practitioners for reducing water-related power plant vulnerabilities via lower cost methods.

Investigating Sustainability Impacts of Bioenergy Usage Within the Eisenwurzen Region in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putzhuber, F.; Hasenauer, H.

2009-04-01

Within the past few years sustainability and bioenergy usage become a key term in emphasizing the relationship between economic progress and the protection of the environment. One key difficulty is the definition of criteria and indicators for assessing sustainability issues and their change over time. This work introduces methods to create linear parametric models of the sustainable impact issues relevant in the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Our application example is the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. The total area covers 5743 km km² and includes 99 municipalities. A total of 11 impact issues covering the economic, social and environmental areas are proposed for developing the linear parametric models. The indicator selection for deriving the impact issues is based on public official data from 68 indicators, as well as stakeholder interviews and the impact assessment framework. In total we obtained 415 variables from the 99 municipalities to create the 68 indicators for the Local Administration Unit 2 (LAU2) over the last (if available) 25 years. The 68 indicators are on a relative scale to address the size differences of the municipalities. The idea of the analysis is to create linear models which derive 11 defined impact issues related to the establishment of new bio-energetic heating systems. Each analysis follows a strict statistical procedure based on (i) independent indicator selection, (ii) remove indicators with higher VIF value grater then 6, (iii) remove indicators with α higher than 0,05, (iv) possible linear transformation, (v) remove the non-significant indicators (p-value >0,05), (vi) model valuation, (vii) remove the out-lines plots and (viii) test of the normality distribution of the residual with a Kolmogorov- Smirnov test. The results suggest that for the 11 sustainable impact issues 21 of the 68 indicators are significant drives. The models revealed that it is possible to create tools for assessing impact issues in a municipality level. In this case impact issues related to bio-energy usages on a rural mountain region.

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions. Specifics of the importance of the scientific methodology e.g. RCM ensemble modeling (using OLAM, RAMS and WRF); combining RCM runs with agriculture modeling system (specifically APSIM); bringing different RCM setups to as close as possible common framework, etc., and important science results (e.g. the significance of Gulf of CA SST for precipitation over dry regions; the AR landfall impacts on precipitation; etc.) are described in our work. We emphasize that the methodology is significant in order to advance the state of the art climate change impacts at regional levels; and to implement our methodology for realistic impact analysis on the natural and managed (agriculture) ecosystems, beyond the SW US.

Development of a framework for the assessment of capacity and throughput technologies within the National Airspace System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Elena

The demand for air travel is expanding beyond the capacity of the existing National Airspace System. Excess traffic results in delays and compromised safety. Thus, a number of initiatives to improve airspace capacity have been proposed. To assess the impact of these technologies on air traffic one must move beyond the vehicle to a system-of-systems point of view. This top-level perspective must include consideration of the aircraft, airports, air traffic control and airlines that make up the airspace system. In addition to these components and their interactions economics, safety and government regulations must also be considered. Furthermore, the air transportation system is inherently variable with changes in everything from fuel prices to the weather. The development of a modeling environment that enables a comprehensive probabilistic evaluation of technological impacts was the subject of this thesis. The final modeling environment developed used economics as the thread to tie the airspace components together. Airport capacities and delays were calculated explicitly with due consideration to the impacts of air traffic control. The delay costs were then calculated for an entire fleet, and an airline economic analysis, considering the impact of these costs, was carried out. Airline return on investment was considered the metric of choice since it brings together all costs and revenues, including the cost of delays, landing fees for airport use and aircraft financing costs. Safety was found to require a level of detail unsuitable for a system-of-systems approach and was relegated to future airspace studies. Environmental concerns were considered to be incorporated into airport regulations and procedures and were not explicitly modeled. A deterministic case study was developed to test this modeling environment. The Atlanta airport operations for the year 2000 were used for validation purposes. A 2005 baseline was used as a basis for comparing the four technologies considered: a very large aircraft, Terminal Area Productivity air traffic control technologies, smoothing of an airline schedule, and the addition of a runway. A case including all four technologies simultaneously was also considered. Unfortunately, the complexity of the system prevented full exploration of the probabilistic aspects of the National Airspace System.

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE PAGES

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel; ...

2014-11-29

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Impact of Clean Energy R&D on the U.S. Power Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donohoo-Vallett, Paul; Mai, Trieu; Mowers, Matthew

The U.S. government, along with other governments, private corporations and organizations, invests significantly in research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDD&D) activities in clean energy technologies, in part to achieve the goal of a clean, secure, and reliable energy system. While specific outcomes and breakthroughs resulting from RDD&D investment are unpredictable, it can be instructive to explore the potential impacts of clean energy RDD&D activities in the power sector and to place those impacts in the context of current and anticipated market trends. This analysis builds on and leverages analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) titled “Energy CO 2more » Emissions Impacts of Clean Energy Technology Innovation and Policy” (DOE 2017). Similar to DOE (2017), we explore how additional improvements in cost and performance of clean energy technologies could impact the future U.S. energy system; however, unlike the economy-wide modeling used in DOE (2017) our analysis is focused solely on the electricity sector and applies a different and more highly spatially-resolved electric sector model. More specifically, we apply a scenario analysis approach to explore how assumed further advancements in clean electricity technologies would impact power sector generation mix, electricity system costs, and power sector carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions.« less

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

DOE PAGES

Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.

2018-02-02

Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effectmore » of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.« less

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.

2018-02-01

Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.

Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effectmore » of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.« less

Normal impact of a low-velocity projectile against a taut string-like membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yifei; Sun, Zhili

2018-07-01

For the impact system in which a moving projectile transversely impacts against a taut fabric band, 1-D linearized model applies because of low-velocity, sufficient pretension, and the sizes of the objects. This projectile-to-band impact model can serve as the physical prototype of applications in engineering such as cable-membrane architectures and seat belts. In this fundamental work, the response properties under central and non-central impacts are investigated analytically from the viewpoint of wave propagations, while comparisons and verifications are made with finite element (FE) analysis. For a central impact after the first separation, band can catch up with the projectile such that a contact-impact state is re-established when m is in the small interval neighbouring m = 1. For a non-central impact, the projectile would be subjected to a combination of translation and rotation due to asymmetric wave propagations. From every certain instant, the projectile is subjected to an additional rotational acceleration (principal moment) with an abrupt or zero initial value in the anti-clockwise or clockwise direction. The swing amplitude of a small-j or a flat projectile is susceptible to significant fluctuations, and vice versa. The band with a rather large off-centre ratio for the impacted zone and a rather short length of the shorter segment would facilitate a larger accumulation of swing amplitude in a single direction soon after the impact. The linearized impact models proposed can be used to well describe the small-deflection responses for the system, based on 1-D wave propagations or the dependence of quasi-static band deflection on time if the impact duration is much longer than the double wave transit time for the band.

AHP-based spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment due to change in vehicular traffic caused by highway broadening in Sikkim Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Polash; Ghose, Mrinal Kanti; Pradhan, Ratika

2018-05-01

Spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment of highway projects in mountainous areas remains largely unexplored. A methodology is presented here for Spatial Water Quality Impact Assessment (SWQIA) due to highway-broadening-induced vehicular traffic change in the East district of Sikkim. Pollution load of the highway runoff was estimated using an Average Annual Daily Traffic-Based Empirical model in combination with mass balance model to predict pollution in the rivers within the study area. Spatial interpolation and overlay analysis were used for impact mapping. Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Water Quality Status Index was used to prepare a composite impact map. Model validation criteria, cross-validation criteria, and spatial explicit sensitivity analysis show that the SWQIA model is robust. The study shows that vehicular traffic is a significant contributor to water pollution in the study area. The model is catering specifically to impact analysis of the concerned project. It can be an aid for decision support system for the project stakeholders. The applicability of SWQIA model needs to be explored and validated in the context of a larger set of water quality parameters and project scenarios at a greater spatial scale.

Multi-objective optimization integrated with life cycle assessment for rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Huang, Youyi; Ye, Quanliang; Zhang, Wenlong; Meng, Fangang; Zhang, Shanxue

2018-03-01

The major limitation of optimization models applied previously for rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems is the systematic evaluation of environmental and human health impacts across all the lifecycle stages. This study integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) into a multi-objective optimization model to optimize the construction areas of green rooftops, porous pavements and green lands in Beijing of China, considering the trade-offs among 24 h-interval RWH volume (QR), stormwater runoff volume control ratio (R), economic cost (EC), and environmental impacts (EI). Eleven life cycle impact indicators were assessed with a functional unit of 10,000 m2 of RWH construction areas. The LCA results showed that green lands performed the smallest lifecycle impacts of all assessment indicators, in contrast, porous pavements showed the largest impact values except Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) elements. Based on the standardization results, ADP fossil was chosen as the representative indicator for the calculation of EI objective in multi-objective optimization model due to its largest value in all RWH systems lifecycle. The optimization results for QR, R, EC and EI were 238.80 million m3, 78.5%, 66.68 billion RMB Yuan, and 1.05E + 16 MJ, respectively. After the construction of optimal RWH system, 14.7% of annual domestic water consumption and 78.5% of maximum daily rainfall would be supplied and controlled in Beijing, respectively, which would make a great contribution to reduce the stress of water scarcity and water logging problems. Green lands have been the first choice for RWH in Beijing according to the capacity of rainwater harvesting and less environmental and human impacts. Porous pavements played a good role in water logging alleviation (R for 67.5%), however, did not show a large construction result in this study due to the huge ADP fossil across the lifecycle. Sensitivity analysis revealed the daily maximum precipitation to be key factor for the robustness of the results for three RWH systems construction in this study.

Evaluating the success of an emergency response medical information system.

PubMed

Petter, Stacie; Fruhling, Ann

2011-07-01

STATPack™ is an information system used to aid in the diagnosis of pathogens in hospitals and state public health laboratories. STATPack™ is used as a communication and telemedicine diagnosis tool during emergencies. This paper explores the success of this emergency response medical information system (ERMIS) using a well-known framework of information systems success developed by DeLone and McLean. Using an online survey, the entire population of STATPack™ users evaluated the success of the information system by considering system quality, information quality, system use, intention to use, user satisfaction, individual impact, and organizational impact. The results indicate that the overall quality of this ERMIS (i.e., system quality, information quality, and service quality) has a positive impact on both user satisfaction and intention to use the system. However, given the nature of ERMIS, overall quality does not necessarily predict use of the system. Moreover, the user's satisfaction with the information system positively affected the intention to use the system. User satisfaction, intention to use, and system use had a positive influence on the system's impact on the individual. Finally, the organizational impacts of the system were positively influenced by use of the system and the system's individual impact on the user. The results of the study demonstrate how to evaluate the success of an ERMIS as well as introduce potential changes in how one applies the DeLone and McLean success model in an emergency response medical information system context. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

a Self-Excited System for Percussive-Rotary Drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batako, A. D.; Babitsky, V. I.; Halliwell, N. A.

2003-01-01

A dynamic model for a new principle of percussive-rotary drilling is presented. This is a non-linear mechanical system with two degrees of freedom, in which friction-induced vibration is used for excitation of impacts, which influence the parameters of stick-slip motion. The model incorporates the friction force as a function of sliding velocity, which allows for the self-excitation of the coupled vibration of the rotating bit and striker, which tends to a steady state periodic cycle. The dynamic coupling of vibro-impact action with the stick-slip process provides an entirely new adaptive feature in the drilling process. The dynamic behaviour of the system with and without impact is studied numerically. Special attention is given to analysis of the relationship between the sticking and impacting phase of the process in order to achieve an optimal drilling performance. This paper provides an understanding of the mechanics of percussive -rotary drilling and design of new drilling tools with advanced characteristics. Conventional percussive-rotary drilling requires two independent actuators and special control for the synchronization of impact and rotation. In the approach presented, a combined complex interaction of drill bit and striker is synchronized by a single rotating drive.

A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann

2010-01-01

Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

Modeling and Managing Risk in Billing Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baiardi, Fabrizio; Telmon, Claudio; Sgandurra, Daniele

This paper discusses risk modeling and risk management in information and communications technology (ICT) systems for which the attack impact distribution is heavy tailed (e.g., power law distribution) and the average risk is unbounded. Systems with these properties include billing infrastructures used to charge customers for services they access. Attacks against billing infrastructures can be classified as peripheral attacks and backbone attacks. The goal of a peripheral attack is to tamper with user bills; a backbone attack seeks to seize control of the billing infrastructure. The probability distribution of the overall impact of an attack on a billing infrastructure also has a heavy-tailed curve. This implies that the probability of a massive impact cannot be ignored and that the average impact may be unbounded - thus, even the most expensive countermeasures would be cost effective. Consequently, the only strategy for managing risk is to increase the resilience of the infrastructure by employing redundant components.

Studying the effect on system preference by varying coproduct allocation in creating life-cycle inventory.

PubMed

Curran, Mary Ann

2007-10-15

How one models the input and output data for a life-cycle assessment (LCA) can greatly affect the results. Although much attention has been paid to allocation methodology by researchers in the field, specific guidance is still lacking: Earlier research focused on the effects of applying various allocation schemes to industrial processes when creating life-cycle inventories. To determine the impact of different allocation approaches upon product choice, this study evaluated the gas- and water-phase emissions during the production, distribution, and use of three hypothetical fuel systems (data that represent conventional gasoline and gasoline with 8.7 and 85% ethanol were used as the basis for modeling). This paper presents an explanation of the allocation issue and the results from testing various allocation schemes (weight, volume, market value, energy, and demand-based) when viewed across the entire system. Impact indicators for global warming, ozone depletion, and human health noncancer (water impact) were lower for the ethanol-containing fuels, while impact indicators for acidification, ecotoxicity, eutrophication, human health criteria, and photochemical smog were lower for conventional gasoline (impacts for the water-related human health cancer category showed mixed results). The relative ranking of conventional gasoline in relation to the ethanol-containing fuels was consistent in all instances, suggesting that, in this case study, the choice of allocation methodology had no impact on indicating which fuel has lower environmental impacts.

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.; ...

2015-07-23

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

Sensitivity Analysis of an ENteric Immunity SImulator (ENISI)-Based Model of Immune Responses to Helicobacter pylori Infection

PubMed Central

Alam, Maksudul; Deng, Xinwei; Philipson, Casandra; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Bisset, Keith; Carbo, Adria; Eubank, Stephen; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Marathe, Madhav

2015-01-01

Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study immune systems, providing a procedural and interactive view of the underlying system. The interaction of components and the behavior of individual objects is described procedurally as a function of the internal states and the local interactions, which are often stochastic in nature. Such models typically have complex structures and consist of a large number of modeling parameters. Determining the key modeling parameters which govern the outcomes of the system is very challenging. Sensitivity analysis plays a vital role in quantifying the impact of modeling parameters in massively interacting systems, including large complex ABM. The high computational cost of executing simulations impedes running experiments with exhaustive parameter settings. Existing techniques of analyzing such a complex system typically focus on local sensitivity analysis, i.e. one parameter at a time, or a close “neighborhood” of particular parameter settings. However, such methods are not adequate to measure the uncertainty and sensitivity of parameters accurately because they overlook the global impacts of parameters on the system. In this article, we develop novel experimental design and analysis techniques to perform both global and local sensitivity analysis of large-scale ABMs. The proposed method can efficiently identify the most significant parameters and quantify their contributions to outcomes of the system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology for ENteric Immune SImulator (ENISI), a large-scale ABM environment, using a computational model of immune responses to Helicobacter pylori colonization of the gastric mucosa. PMID:26327290

Sensitivity Analysis of an ENteric Immunity SImulator (ENISI)-Based Model of Immune Responses to Helicobacter pylori Infection.

PubMed

Alam, Maksudul; Deng, Xinwei; Philipson, Casandra; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Bisset, Keith; Carbo, Adria; Eubank, Stephen; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Marathe, Madhav

2015-01-01

Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study immune systems, providing a procedural and interactive view of the underlying system. The interaction of components and the behavior of individual objects is described procedurally as a function of the internal states and the local interactions, which are often stochastic in nature. Such models typically have complex structures and consist of a large number of modeling parameters. Determining the key modeling parameters which govern the outcomes of the system is very challenging. Sensitivity analysis plays a vital role in quantifying the impact of modeling parameters in massively interacting systems, including large complex ABM. The high computational cost of executing simulations impedes running experiments with exhaustive parameter settings. Existing techniques of analyzing such a complex system typically focus on local sensitivity analysis, i.e. one parameter at a time, or a close "neighborhood" of particular parameter settings. However, such methods are not adequate to measure the uncertainty and sensitivity of parameters accurately because they overlook the global impacts of parameters on the system. In this article, we develop novel experimental design and analysis techniques to perform both global and local sensitivity analysis of large-scale ABMs. The proposed method can efficiently identify the most significant parameters and quantify their contributions to outcomes of the system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology for ENteric Immune SImulator (ENISI), a large-scale ABM environment, using a computational model of immune responses to Helicobacter pylori colonization of the gastric mucosa.

Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computati...

IMPACT OF AN UPDATED CARBON BOND MECHANISM ON PREDICTIONS FROM THE CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

An updated and expanded Carbon Bond mechanism (CB05) has been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to more accurately simulate wintertime, pristine, and high altitude situations. The CB05 mechanism has nearly twice the number of reactions compare...

An Integrated Ecological Modeling System for Assessing Impacts of Multiple Stressors on Stream and Riverine Ecosystem Services Within River Basins

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat ...

SIMULATIONS OF AEROSOLS AND PHOTOCHEMICAL SPECIES WITH THE CMAQ PLUME-IN-GRID MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

A plume-in-grid (PinG) method has been an integral component of the CMAQ modeling system and has been designed in order to realistically simulate the relevant processes impacting pollutant concentrations in plumes released from major point sources. In particular, considerable di...

“Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system: Assessing the model’s ability to simulate ozone changes due to NOx emission reductions”

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system during the NOx SIP Call time period indicates that the model underestimates the observed ozone decrease in eastern U.S. Utilizing novel cross simulations we are able to separately quantify the impact on ozone predictions stemmin...

20170312 - Computer Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

Computer Simulation of Developmental Processes and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

Mathematical Modeling of Food Supply for Long Term Space Missions Using Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruthirds, John E.

2003-01-01

A habitat for long duration missions which utilizes Advanced Life Support (ALS), the Bioregenerative Planetary Life Support Systems Test Complex (BIO-Plex), is currently being built at JSC. In this system all consumables will be recycled and reused. In support of this effort, a menu is being planned utilizing ALS crops that will meet nutritional and psychological requirements. The need exists in the food system to identify specific physical quantities that define life support systems from an analysis and modeling perspective. Once these quantities are defined, they need to be fed into a mathematical model that takes into consideration other systems in the BIO-Plex. This model, if successful, will be used to understand the impacts of changes in the food system on the other systems and vice versa. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been used to describe systems and subsystems, including the food system options, in terms of the single parameter, mass. There is concern that this approach might not adequately address the important issues of food quality and psychological impact on crew morale of a supply of fiesh food items. In fact, the mass of food can also depend on the quality of the food. This summer faculty fellow project will involve creating an appropriate mathematical model for the food plan developed by the Food Processing System for BIO-Plex. The desired outcome of this work will be a quantitative model that can be applied to the various options of supplying food on long-term space missions.

Impact adding bifurcation in an autonomous hybrid dynamical model of church bell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brzeski, P.; Chong, A. S. E.; Wiercigroch, M.; Perlikowski, P.

2018-05-01

In this paper we present the bifurcation analysis of the yoke-bell-clapper system which corresponds to the biggest bell "Serce Lodzi" mounted in the Cathedral Basilica of St Stanislaus Kostka, Lodz, Poland. The mathematical model of the system considered in this work has been derived and verified based on measurements of dynamics of the real bell. We perform numerical analysis both by direct numerical integration and path-following method using toolbox ABESPOL (Chong, 2016). By introducing the active yoke the position of the bell-clapper system with respect to the yoke axis of rotation can be easily changed and it can be used to probe the system dynamics. We found a wide variety of periodic and non-periodic solutions, and examined the ranges of coexistence of solutions and transitions between them via different types of bifurcations. Finally, a new type of bifurcation induced by a grazing event - an "impact adding bifurcation" has been proposed. When it occurs, the number of impacts between the bell and the clapper is increasing while the period of the system's motion stays the same.

Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of global climate change on crop productivity have drawn much attention in recent years. To investigate these impacts on grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench] productivity, we calibrated the CERES-Sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT...

Perceptions and Attitudes of Health Professionals in Kenya on National Health Care Resource Allocation Mechanisms: A Structural Equation Modeling

PubMed Central

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Hsu, Yi-Hsin Elsa; Chern, Jin-Yuan; Chiu, Chiung-Hsuan Megan; Wang, Bill; Huang, Kuo-Cherh; Muga, Miriam Adoyo

2015-01-01

Background Health care resource allocation is key towards attaining equity in the health system. However, health professionals’ perceived impact and attitude towards health care resource allocation in Sub-Saharan Africa is unknown; furthermore, they occupy a position which makes them notice the impact of different policies in their health system. This study explored perceptions and attitudes of health professionals in Kenya on health care resource allocation mechanism. Method We conducted a survey of a representative sample of 341 health professionals in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital from February to April 2012, consisting of over 3000 employees. We assessed health professionals’ perceived impact and attitudes on health care resource allocation mechanism in Kenya. We used structural equation modeling and applied a Confirmatory Factor Analysis using Robust Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure to test the hypothesized model. Results We found that the allocation mechanism was negatively associated with their perceived positive impact (-1.04, p < .001), health professionals’ satisfaction (-0.24, p < .01), and professionals’ attitudes (-1.55, p < .001) while it was positively associated with perceived negative impact (1.14, p < .001). Perceived positive impact of the allocation mechanism was negatively associated with their overall satisfaction (-0.08) and attitude (-0.98) at p < .001, respectively. Furthermore, overall satisfaction was negatively associated with attitude (-1.10, p <.001). On the other hand, perceived negative impact of the allocation was positively associated with overall satisfaction (0.29, p <.001) but was not associated with attitude. Conclusion The result suggests that health care resource allocation mechanism has a negative effect towards perceptions, attitudes and overall satisfaction of health professionals who are at the frontline in health care. These findings can serve as a crucial reference for policymakers as the Kenyan health system move towards devolving the system of governance. PMID:26039053

Solving Water Crisis through Understanding of Hydrology and Human Systems: a Possible Target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, A.

2014-12-01

While the majority of the Earth surface is still in pristine conditions, the totality of the hydrological systems that are relevant to humans are human impacted, with the only exception of small headwater catchments. In fact, the limited transferability of water in space and time implies that water withdrawals from natural resources take place where and when water is needed. Therefore, hydrological systems are impacted where and when humans are, thereby causing a direct perturbation of all water bodies that are relevant to society. The current trend of population dynamics and the current status of water systems are such that the above impact will be not sustainable in the near future, therefore causing a water emergency that will be extended to all intensively populated regions of the world, with relevant implications on migration fluxes, political status and social security. Therefore mitigation actions are urgently needed, whose planning needs to be based on improved interpretations of the above impact. Up to recent times, hydrologists mainly concentrated their research on catchments where the human perturbation is limited, to improve our understanding of pristine hydrology. There were good motivations for this focus: given the relevant uncertainty affecting hydrological modeling, and the even greater uncertainty involved in societal modeling, hydrologists made an effort to separate hydrological and human dynamics. Nowadays, the urgency of the above need to mitigate the global water crisis through improved water resources management calls for a research attempt to bridge water and social sciences. The relevant research question is how to build operational models in order to fully account for the interactions and feedbacks between water resources systems and society. Given that uncertainty estimation is necessary for the operational application of model results, one of the crucial issues is how to quantify uncertainty by means of suitable assumptions. This talk will provide an introduction to the problem and a personal perspective to move forward to set up improved operational models to assist societal planning to mitigate the global water crisis.

Interaction and Impact Studies for Distributed Energy Resource, Transactive Energy, and Electric Grid, using High Performance Computing ?based Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelley, B. M.

The electric utility industry is undergoing significant transformations in its operation model, including a greater emphasis on automation, monitoring technologies, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). With these changes and new technologies, while driving greater efficiencies and reliability, these new models may introduce new vectors of cyber attack. The appropriate cybersecurity controls to address and mitigate these newly introduced attack vectors and potential vulnerabilities are still widely unknown and performance of the control is difficult to vet. This proposal argues that modeling and simulation (M&S) is a necessary tool to address and better understand these problems introduced by emergingmore » technologies for the grid. M&S will provide electric utilities a platform to model its transmission and distribution systems and run various simulations against the model to better understand the operational impact and performance of cybersecurity controls.« less

Interconnection Assessment Methodology and Cost Benefit Analysis for High-Penetration PV Deployment in the Arizona Public Service System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baggu, Murali; Giraldez, Julieta; Harris, Tom

In an effort to better understand the impacts of high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generators on distribution systems, Arizona Public Service and its partners completed a multi-year project to develop the tools and knowledge base needed to safely and reliably integrate high penetrations of utility- and residential-scale PV. Building upon the APS Community Power Project-Flagstaff Pilot, this project investigates the impact of PV on a representative feeder in northeast Flagstaff. To quantify and catalog the effects of the estimated 1.3 MW of PV that will be installed on the feeder (both smaller units at homes and large, centrally located systems),more » high-speed weather and electrical data acquisition systems and digital 'smart' meters were designed and installed to facilitate monitoring and to build and validate comprehensive, high-resolution models of the distribution system. These models are being developed to analyze the impacts of PV on distribution circuit protection systems (including coordination and anti-islanding), predict voltage regulation and phase balance issues, and develop volt/VAr control schemes. This paper continues from a paper presented at the 2014 IEEE PVSC conference that described feeder model evaluation and high penetration advanced scenario analysis, specifically feeder reconfiguration. This paper presents results from Phase 5 of the project. Specifically, the paper discusses tool automation; interconnection assessment methodology and cost benefit analysis.« less

Modelling the catchment-scale environmental impacts of wastewater treatment in an urban sewage system for CO₂ emission assessment.

PubMed

Mouri, Goro; Oki, Taikan

2010-01-01

Water shortages and water pollution are a global problem. Increases in population can have further acute effects on water cycles and on the availability of water resources. Thus, wastewater management plays an important role in mitigating negative impacts on natural ecosystems and human environments and is an important area of research. In this study, we modelled catchment-scale hydrology, including water balances, rainfall, contamination, and urban wastewater treatment. The entire water resource system of a basin, including a forest catchment and an urban city area, was evaluated synthetically from a spatial distribution perspective with respect to water quantity and quality; the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) technique was applied to optimize wastewater treatment management with the aim of improving water quality and reducing CO₂ emissions. A numerical model was developed to predict the water cycle and contamination in the catchment and city; the effect of a wastewater treatment system on the urban region was evaluated; pollution loads were evaluated quantitatively; and the effects of excluding rainwater from the treatment system during flooding and of urban rainwater control on water quality were examined. Analysis indicated that controlling the amount of rainwater inflow to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in an urban area with a combined sewer system has a large impact on reducing CO₂ emissions because of the load reduction on the urban sewage system.

Information Quality Evaluation of C2 Systems at Architecture Level

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

based on architecture models of C2 systems, which can help to identify key factors impacting information quality and improve the system capability at the stage of architecture design of C2 system....capability evaluation of C2 systems at architecture level becomes necessary and important for improving the system capability at the stage of architecture ... design . This paper proposes a method for information quality evaluation of C2 system at architecture level. First, the information quality model is

Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Laverne

1995-01-01

Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

Monitoring operational data production applying Big Data tooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; de Jong, Hotze; van den Berg, Roy; Bos, Jeroen; Oosterhoff, Rijk; Klein Ikkink, Henk Jan; Haga, Femke; Elsten, Tom; Verhoef, Hans; Koutek, Michal; van de Vegte, John

2015-04-01

Within the KNMI Deltaplan programme for improving the KNMI operational infrastructure an new fully automated system for monitoring the KNMI operational data production systems is being developed: PRISMA (PRocessflow Infrastructure Surveillance and Monitoring Application). Currently the KNMI operational (24/7) production systems consist of over 60 applications, running on different hardware systems and platforms. They are interlinked for the production of numerous data products, which are delivered to internal and external customers. All applications are individually monitored by different applications, complicating root cause and impact analysis. Also, the underlying hardware and network is monitored separately using Zabbix. Goal of the new system is to enable production chain monitoring, which enables root cause analysis (what is the root cause of the disruption) and impact analysis (what other products will be effected). The PRISMA system will make it possible to dispose all the existing monitoring applications, providing one interface for monitoring the data production. For modeling the production chain, the Neo4j Graph database is used to store and query the model. The model can be edited through the PRISMA web interface, but is mainly automatically provided by the applications and systems which are to be monitored. The graph enables us to do root case and impact analysis. The graph can be visualized in the PRISMA web interface on different levels. Each 'monitored object' in the model will have a status (OK, error, warning, unknown). This status is derived by combing all log information available. For collecting and querying the log information Splunk is used. The system is developed using Scrum, by a multi-disciplinary team consisting of analysts, developers, a tester and interaction designer. In the presentation we will focus on the lessons learned working with the 'Big data' tooling Splunk and Neo4J.

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

PubMed

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

Impact-based earthquake alerts with the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system: what's next?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Garcia, D.; So, E.; Hearne, M.

2012-01-01

In September 2010, the USGS began publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses with its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. These estimates significantly enhanced the utility of the USGS PAGER system which had been, since 2006, providing estimated population exposures to specific shaking intensities. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating estimated losses (and their uncertainties) to the public, the media, humanitarian, and response communities required a new protocol—necessitating the development of an Earthquake Impact Scale—described herein and now deployed with the PAGER system. After two years of PAGER-based impact alerting, we now review operations, hazard calculations, loss models, alerting protocols, and our success rate for recent (2010-2011) events. This review prompts analyses of the strengths, limitations, opportunities, and pressures, allowing clearer definition of future research and development priorities for the PAGER system.

Cost-engineering modeling to support rapid concept development of an advanced infrared satellite system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Kevin D.; Dafesh, Philip A.; Hsu, L. A.; Tsuda, A. S.

1995-12-01

Current architectural and design trade techniques often carry unaffordable alternatives late into the decision process. Early decisions made during the concept exploration and development (CE&D) phase will drive the cost of a program more than any other phase of development; thus, designers must be able to assess both the performance and cost impacts of their early choices. The Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) cost engineering model (CEM) described in this paper is an end-to-end process integrating engineering and cost expertise through commonly available spreadsheet software, allowing for concurrent design engineering and cost estimation to identify and balance system drives to reduce acquisition costs. The automated interconnectivity between subsystem models using spreadsheet software allows for the quick and consistent assessment of the system design impacts and relative cost impacts due to requirement changes. It is different from most CEM efforts attempted in the past as it incorporates more detailed spacecraft and sensor payload models, and has been applied to determine the cost drivers for an advanced infrared satellite system acquisition. The CEM is comprised of integrated detailed engineering and cost estimating relationships describing performance, design, and cost parameters. Detailed models have been developed to evaluate design parameters for the spacecraft bus and sensor; both step-starer and scanner sensor types incorporate models of focal plane array, optics, processing, thermal, communications, and mission performance. The current CEM effort has provided visibility to requirements, design, and cost drivers for system architects and decision makers to determine the configuration of an infrared satellite architecture that meets essential requirements cost effectively. In general, the methodology described in this paper consists of process building blocks that can be tailored to the needs of many applications. Descriptions of the spacecraft and payload subsystem models provide insight into The Aerospace Corporation expertise and scope of the SBIRS concept development effort.

A Biophysical Modeling Framework for Assessing the Environmental Impact of Biofuel Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Izaurradle, C.; Manowitz, D.; West, T. O.; Post, W. M.; Thomson, A. M.; Nichols, J.; Bandaru, V.; Williams, J. R.

2009-12-01

Long-term sustainability of a biofuel economy necessitates environmentally friendly biofuel production systems. We describe a biophysical modeling framework developed to understand and quantify the environmental value and impact (e.g. water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and soil quality) of different biomass cropping systems. This modeling framework consists of three major components: 1) a Geographic Information System (GIS) based data processing system, 2) a spatially-explicit biophysical modeling approach, and 3) a user friendly information distribution system. First, we developed a GIS to manage the large amount of geospatial data (e.g. climate, land use, soil, and hydrograhy) and extract input information for the biophysical model. Second, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) biophysical model is used to predict the impact of various cropping systems and management intensities on productivity, water balance, and biogeochemical variables. Finally, a geo-database is developed to distribute the results of ecosystem service variables (e.g. net primary productivity, soil carbon balance, soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and N2O fluxes) simulated by EPIC for each spatial modeling unit online using PostgreSQL. We applied this framework in a Regional Intensive Management Area (RIMA) of 9 counties in Michigan. A total of 4,833 spatial units with relatively homogeneous biophysical properties were derived using SSURGO, Crop Data Layer, County, and 10-digit watershed boundaries. For each unit, EPIC was executed from 1980 to 2003 under 54 cropping scenarios (eg. corn, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar). The simulation results were compared with historical crop yields from USDA NASS. Spatial mapping of the results show high variability among different cropping scenarios in terms of the simulated ecosystem services variables. Overall, the framework developed in this study enables the incorporation of environmental factors into economic and life-cycle analysis in order to optimize biomass cropping production scenarios.

Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

2018-06-01

We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help the knowledge of the role of key ecosystem processes in SIR.

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies conceptually and practically integrate urban spatial and energy planning approaches. The combined modelling approach that will be developed based on the described sectorial models holds the potential to represent hybrid energy systems coupling distributed generation of electricity with thermal conversion systems.

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

2012-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

An Analysis of the Impact of RFID Technology on Inventory Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekik, Yacine

Nowadays, most enterprises undertake large investments in order to implement information systems that support decision making for managing inventories. Nevertheless, if data collected from the physical processes used to feed these systems are not correct, there will be severe impacts on business performance. Inventory inaccuracy occurs when the inventory level in the Information System is not in agreement with the physically available inventory. In this chapter, we first describe the major factors generating inventory inaccuracy. Then, we provide situations permitting to manage an inventory system subject to errors. We provide a framework to model the inventory inaccuracy issue and focus on the impact of advanced identification systems, such as that provided by RFID technology, in improving the performance of a supply chain subject to inventory inaccuracies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William D.; Craig, Anthony P.; Truesdale, John E.

The integrated Earth System Model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for pro- jecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and an Earth System Model (ESM) into a common modeling in- frastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species, land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a sin- gle simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore- omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific under- standing of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper de- scribes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

The environmental impact of beef production in the United States: 1977 compared with 2007.

PubMed

Capper, J L

2011-12-01

Consumers often perceive that the modern beef production system has an environmental impact far greater than that of historical systems, with improved efficiency being achieved at the expense of greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study was to compare the environmental impact of modern (2007) US beef production with production practices characteristic of the US beef system in 1977. A deterministic model based on the metabolism and nutrient requirements of the beef population was used to quantify resource inputs and waste outputs per billion kilograms of beef. Both the modern and historical production systems were modeled using characteristic management practices, population dynamics, and production data from US beef systems. Modern beef production requires considerably fewer resources than the equivalent system in 1977, with 69.9% of animals, 81.4% of feedstuffs, 87.9% of the water, and only 67.0% of the land required to produce 1 billion kg of beef. Waste outputs were similarly reduced, with modern beef systems producing 81.9% of the manure, 82.3% CH(4), and 88.0% N(2)O per billion kilograms of beef compared with production systems in 1977. The C footprint per billion kilograms of beef produced in 2007 was reduced by 16.3% compared with equivalent beef production in 1977. As the US population increases, it is crucial to continue the improvements in efficiency demonstrated over the past 30 yr to supply the market demand for safe, affordable beef while reducing resource use and mitigating environmental impact.

Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Lichty, R.W.; Troutman, B.M.; Saindon, L.G.

1983-01-01

The concepts, structure, theoretical development, and data requirements of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) are described. The precipitation-runoff modeling system is a modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yields, and general basin hydrology. Basin response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water balance relationships, flow regimes, flood peaks and volumes, soil-water relationships, sediment yields, and groundwater recharge. Parameter-optimization and sensitivity analysis capabilites are provided to fit selected model parameters and evaluate their individual and joint effects on model output. The modular design provides a flexible framework for continued model system enhancement and hydrologic modeling research and development. (Author 's abstract)

A Decision Support System for Mitigating Stream Temperature Impacts in the Sacramento River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

Increasing demands on the limited and variable water supply across the West can result in insufficient streamflow to sustain healthy fish habitat. We develop an integrated decision support system (DSS) for modeling and mitigating stream temperature impacts and demonstrate it on the Sacramento River system in California. Water management in the Sacramento River is a complex task with a diverse set of demands ranging from municipal supply to mitigation of fisheries impacts due to high water temperatures. Current operations utilize the temperature control device (TCD) structure at Shasta Dam to mitigate these high water temperatures downstream at designated compliance points. The TCD structure at Shasta Dam offers a rather unique opportunity to mitigate water temperature violations through adjustments to both release volume and temperature. In this study, we develop and evaluate a model-based DSS with four broad components that are coupled to produce the decision tool for stream temperature mitigation: (i) a suite of statistical models for modeling stream temperature attributes using hydrology and climate variables of critical importance to fish habitat; (ii) a reservoir thermal model for modeling the thermal structure and, consequently, the water release temperature, (iii) a stochastic weather generator to simulate weather sequences consistent with seasonal outlooks; and, (iv) a set of decision rules (i.e., 'rubric') for reservoir water releases in response to outputs from the above components. Multiple options for modifying releases at Shasta Dam were considered in the DSS, including mixing water from multiple elevations through the TCD and using different acceptable levels of risk. The DSS also incorporates forecast uncertainties and reservoir operating options to help mitigate stream temperature impacts for fish habitat, while efficiently using the reservoir water supply and cold pool storage. The use of these coupled tools in simulating impacts of future climate on stream temperature variability is also demonstrated. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of violations of thermal criteria, while ensuring maintenance of the cold pool storage throughout the summer.

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

A VAS-numerical model impact study using the Gal-Chen variational approach. [Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aune, Robert M.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Peterson, Ralph A.; Tuccillo, James J.

1987-01-01

Numerical experiments to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using the assimilation technique developed by Gal-Chen (1986) modified for use in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model were conducted. The scheme is designed to utilize the high temporal and horizontal resolution of satellite retrievals while maintaining the fine vertical structure generated by the model. This is accomplished by adjusting the model lapse rates to reflect thicknesses retrieved from VAS and applying a three-dimensional variational that preserves the distribution of the geopotential fields in the model. A nudging technique whereby the model temperature fields are gradually adjusted toward the updated temperature fields during model integration is also tested. An adiabatic version of MASS is used in all experiments to better isolate mass-momentum imbalances. The method has a sustained impact over an 18 hr model simulation.

Is the Grass Always Greener? Comparing the Environmental Impact of Conventional, Natural and Grass-Fed Beef Production Systems.

PubMed

Capper, Judith L

2012-04-10

This study compared the environmental impact of conventional, natural and grass-fed beef production systems. A deterministic model based on the metabolism and nutrient requirements of the beef population was used to quantify resource inputs and waste outputs per 1.0 × 10⁸ kg of hot carcass weight beef in conventional (CON), natural (NAT) and grass-fed (GFD) production systems. Production systems were modeled using characteristic management practices, population dynamics and production data from U.S. beef production systems. Increased productivity (slaughter weight and growth rate) in the CON system reduced the cattle population size required to produce 1.0 × 10⁸ kg of beef compared to the NAT or GFD system. The CON system required 56.3% of the animals, 24.8% of the water, 55.3% of the land and 71.4% of the fossil fuel energy required to produce 1.0 × 10⁸ kg of beef compared to the GFD system. The carbon footprint per 1.0 × 10⁸ kg of beef was lowest in the CON system (15,989 × 10³ t), intermediate in the NAT system (18,772 × 10³ t) and highest in the GFD system (26,785 × 10³ t). The challenge to the U.S beef industry is to communicate differences in system environmental impacts to facilitate informed dietary choice.

From bench to patient: model systems in drug discovery

PubMed Central

Breyer, Matthew D.; Look, A. Thomas; Cifra, Alessandra

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Model systems, including laboratory animals, microorganisms, and cell- and tissue-based systems, are central to the discovery and development of new and better drugs for the treatment of human disease. In this issue, Disease Models & Mechanisms launches a Special Collection that illustrates the contribution of model systems to drug discovery and optimisation across multiple disease areas. This collection includes reviews, Editorials, interviews with leading scientists with a foot in both academia and industry, and original research articles reporting new and important insights into disease therapeutics. This Editorial provides a summary of the collection's current contents, highlighting the impact of multiple model systems in moving new discoveries from the laboratory bench to the patients' bedsides. PMID:26438689

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols on Dust Transport and Mobilization in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Earth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colarco, P. R.; Rocha Lima, A.; Darmenov, A.; Bloecker, C.

2017-12-01

Mineral dust aerosols scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation, impacting the energy budget of the Earth system which in turns feeds back on the dynamical processes responsible for mobilization of dust in the first place. In previous work with radiatively interactive aerosols in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global model (GEOS-5) we found a positive feedback between dust absorption and emissions. Emissions were the largest for the highest shortwave absorption considered, which additionally produced simulated dust transport in the best agreement with observations. The positive feedback found was in contrast to other modeling studies which instead found a negative feedback, where the impact of dust absorption was to stabilize the surface levels of the atmosphere and so reduce wind speeds. A key difference between our model and other models was that in GEOS-5 we simulated generally larger dust particles, with correspondingly larger infrared absorption that led to a pronounced difference in the diurnal cycle of dust emissions versus simulations where these long wave effects were not considered. In this paper we seek to resolve discrepancies between our previous simulations and those of other modeling groups. We revisit the question of dust radiative feedback on emissions with a recent version of the GEOS-5 system running at a higher spatial resolution and including updates to the parameterizations for dust mobilization, initial dust particle size distribution, loss processes, and radiative transfer, and identify key uncertainties that remain based on dust optical property assumptions.

An integrated environmental and health performance quantification model for pre-occupancy phase of buildings in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaodong, E-mail: eastdawn@tsinghua.edu.cn; Su, Shu, E-mail: sushuqh@163.com; Zhang, Zhihui, E-mail: zhzhg@tsinghua.edu.cn

To comprehensively pre-evaluate the damages to both the environment and human health due to construction activities in China, this paper presents an integrated building environmental and health performance (EHP) assessment model based on the Building Environmental Performance Analysis System (BEPAS) and the Building Health Impact Analysis System (BHIAS) models and offers a new inventory data estimation method. The new model follows the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework and the inventory analysis step involves bill of quantity (BOQ) data collection, consumption data formation, and environmental profile transformation. The consumption data are derived from engineering drawings and quotas to conduct the assessmentmore » before construction for pre-evaluation. The new model classifies building impacts into three safeguard areas: ecosystems, natural resources and human health. Thus, this model considers environmental impacts as well as damage to human wellbeing. The monetization approach, distance-to-target method and panel method are considered as optional weighting approaches. Finally, nine residential buildings of different structural types are taken as case studies to test the operability of the integrated model through application. The results indicate that the new model can effectively pre-evaluate building EHP and the structure type significantly affects the performance of residential buildings.« less

Kelvin-Voigt model of wave propagation in fragmented geomaterials with impact damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khudyakov, Maxim; Pasternak, Elena; Dyskin, Arcady

2017-04-01

When a wave propagates through real materials, energy dissipation occurs. The effect of loss of energy in homogeneous materials can be accounted for by using simple viscous models. However, a reliable model representing the effect in fragmented geomaterials has not been established yet. The main reason for that is a mechanism how vibrations are transmitted between the elements (fragments) in these materials. It is hypothesised that the fragments strike against each other, in the process of oscillation, and the impacts lead to the energy loss. We assume that the energy loss is well represented by the restitution coefficient. The principal element of this concept is the interaction of two adjacent blocks. We model it by a simple linear oscillator (a mass on an elastic spring) with an additional condition: each time the system travels through the neutral point, where the displacement is equal to zero, the velocity reduces by multiplying itself by the restitution coefficient, which characterises an impact of the fragments. This additional condition renders the system non-linear. We show that the behaviour of such a model averaged over times much larger than the system period can approximately be represented by a conventional linear oscillator with linear damping characterised by a damping coefficient expressible through the restitution coefficient. Based on this the wave propagation at times considerably greater than the resonance period of oscillations of the neighbouring blocks can be modelled using the Kelvin-Voigt model. The wave velocities and the dispersion relations are obtained.

WaLA, a versatile model for the life cycle assessment of urban water systems: Formalism and framework for a modular approach.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-01-01

The emphasis on the sustainable urban water management has increased over the last decades. In this context decision makers need tools to measure and improve the environmental performance of urban water systems (UWS) and their related scenarios. In this paper, we propose a versatile model, named WaLA (Water system Life cycle Assessment), which reduces the complexity of the UWS while ensuring a good representation of water issues and fulfilling life cycle assessment (LCA) requirements. Indeed, LCAs require building UWS models, which can be tedious if several scenarios are to be compared. The WaLA model is based on a framework that uses a "generic component" representing alternately water technology units and water users, with their associated water flows, and the associated impacts due to water deprivation, emissions, operation and infrastructure. UWS scenarios can be built by inter-operating and connecting the technologies and users components in a modular and integrated way. The model calculates life cycle impacts at a monthly temporal resolution for a set of services provided to users, as defined by the scenario. It also provides the ratio of impacts to amount of services provided and useful information for UWS diagnosis or comparison of different scenarios. The model is implemented in a Matlab/Simulink interface thanks to object-oriented programming. The applicability of the model is demonstrated using a virtual case study based on available life cycle inventory data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2017-12-01

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future.

PubMed

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2010-07-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience.

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future

PubMed Central

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2014-01-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience. PMID:20383202

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling-chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B.

2014-09-01

According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two muti-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow condition. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.

Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B. J.

2015-03-01

According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two multi-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking water, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow conditions. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.

Great Lakes O shore Wind Project: Utility and Regional Integration Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sajadi, Amirhossein; Loparo, Kenneth A.; D'Aquila, Robert

This project aims to identify transmission system upgrades needed to facilitate offshore wind projects as well as operational impacts of offshore generation on operation of the regional transmission system in the Great Lakes region. A simulation model of the US Eastern Interconnection was used as the test system as a case study for investigating the impact of the integration of a 1000MW offshore wind farm operating in Lake Erie into FirstEnergy/PJM service territory. The findings of this research provide recommendations on offshore wind integration scenarios, the locations of points of interconnection, wind profile modeling and simulation, and computational methods tomore » quantify performance, along with operating changes and equipment upgrades needed to mitigate system performance issues introduced by an offshore wind project.« less

The "New" Model of Teacher Evaluation: How Would Ms. Frizzle Fare?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barron, Marni; Dingerson, Leigh

2011-01-01

This article discusses IMPACT, District of Columbia's (D.C.) new evaluation system, which was launched in the fall of 2009 by former D.C. Chancellor Michelle Rhee, and was immediately lauded as a model for the rest of the nation. Much of the media focus on IMPACT has been about its use of test scores--so-called Value Added Measures--to judge…

Washington State Community Colleges: Impact on the Economy of the State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Sally; And Others

Using a Virginia study as a model, this study assessed the effect on Washington state's economy of its 27 campus community college system. The study was based on a simple circular cash-flow model for the years 1969-1976 and measured economic impact in three areas: on the level of business volume done in-state, on employment, and on total state…

Numerical Analysis of Constrained Dynamical Systems, with Applications to Dynamic Contact of Solids, Nonlinear Elastodynamics and Fluid-Structure Interactions

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-12-01

Numerical Simulations ..... ................. .... 42 1.4.1. Impact of a rod on a rigid wall ..... ................. .... 42 1.4.2. Impact of two...dissipative properties of the proposed scheme . . . . 81 II.4. Representative Numerical Simulations ...... ................. ... 84 11.4.1. Forging of...Representative numerical simulations ...... ............. .. 123 111.3. Model Problem II: a Simplified Model of Thin Beams ... ......... ... 127 III

Multiscale Modeling of Antibody-Drug Conjugates: Connecting Tissue and Cellular Distribution to Whole Animal Pharmacokinetics and Potential Implications for Efficacy.

PubMed

Cilliers, Cornelius; Guo, Hans; Liao, Jianshan; Christodolu, Nikolas; Thurber, Greg M

2016-09-01

Antibody-drug conjugates exhibit complex pharmacokinetics due to their combination of macromolecular and small molecule properties. These issues range from systemic concerns, such as deconjugation of the small molecule drug during the long antibody circulation time or rapid clearance from nonspecific interactions, to local tumor tissue heterogeneity, cell bystander effects, and endosomal escape. Mathematical models can be used to study the impact of these processes on overall distribution in an efficient manner, and several types of models have been used to analyze varying aspects of antibody distribution including physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and tissue-level simulations. However, these processes are quantitative in nature and cannot be handled qualitatively in isolation. For example, free antibody from deconjugation of the small molecule will impact the distribution of conjugated antibodies within the tumor. To incorporate these effects into a unified framework, we have coupled the systemic and organ-level distribution of a PBPK model with the tissue-level detail of a distributed parameter tumor model. We used this mathematical model to analyze new experimental results on the distribution of the clinical antibody-drug conjugate Kadcyla in HER2-positive mouse xenografts. This model is able to capture the impact of the drug-antibody ratio (DAR) on tumor penetration, the net result of drug deconjugation, and the effect of using unconjugated antibody to drive ADC penetration deeper into the tumor tissue. This modeling approach will provide quantitative and mechanistic support to experimental studies trying to parse the impact of multiple mechanisms of action for these complex drugs.

Multiscale Modeling of Antibody Drug Conjugates: Connecting tissue and cellular distribution to whole animal pharmacokinetics and potential implications for efficacy

PubMed Central

Cilliers, Cornelius; Guo, Hans; Liao, Jianshan; Christodolu, Nikolas; Thurber, Greg M.

2016-01-01

Antibody drug conjugates exhibit complex pharmacokinetics due to their combination of macromolecular and small molecule properties. These issues range from systemic concerns, such as deconjugation of the small molecule drug during the long antibody circulation time or rapid clearance from non-specific interactions, to local tumor tissue heterogeneity, cell bystander effects, and endosomal escape. Mathematical models can be used to study the impact of these processes on overall distribution in an efficient manner, and several types of models have been used to analyze varying aspects of antibody distribution including physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and tissue-level simulations. However, these processes are quantitative in nature and cannot be handled qualitatively in isolation. For example, free antibody from deconjugation of the small molecule will impact the distribution of conjugated antibodies within the tumor. To incorporate these effects into a unified framework, we have coupled the systemic and organ-level distribution of a PBPK model with the tissue-level detail of a distributed parameter tumor model. We used this mathematical model to analyze new experimental results on the distribution of the clinical antibody drug conjugate Kadcyla in HER2 positive mouse xenografts. This model is able to capture the impact of the drug antibody ratio (DAR) on tumor penetration, the net result of drug deconjugation, and the effect of using unconjugated antibody to drive ADC penetration deeper into the tumor tissue. This modeling approach will provide quantitative and mechanistic support to experimental studies trying to parse the impact of multiple mechanisms of action for these complex drugs. PMID:27287046

On energy harvesting from a vibro-impact oscillator with dielectric membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Z. H.; Thomson, G.; Yurchenko, D.; Val, D. V.; Rodgers, E.

2018-07-01

A vibro-impact mechanical system comprising of a ball moving freely between two dielectric membranes located at a certain distance from each other is studied. The system generates electricity when the ball moving due ambient vibrations impacts one of the membranes. The energy harvesting principle of the proposed system is explained and then used to formulate a numerical model for estimating the system output voltage. The dynamic behavior and output performance of the system are thoroughly studied under a harmonic excitation, as well as different initial conditions and various values of the restitution coefficient of the membranes. The delivered research results are useful for selecting the system parameters to achieve its optimal output performance in a realistic vibrational environment. Potential application of the proposed system for energy harvesting from car engine vibrations is presented.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand.

PubMed

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers' peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers' location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual 'map' of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments. PMID:26226511

Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system.

PubMed

Jääskeläinen, Jaakko; Veijalainen, Noora; Syri, Sanna; Marttunen, Mika; Zakeri, Behnam

2018-07-01

Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939-1942) with Finnish Environment Institute's Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selection Mechanisms Underlying High Impact Biomedical Research - A Qualitative Analysis and Causal Model

PubMed Central

Zelko, Hilary; Zammar, Guilherme Roberto; Bonilauri Ferreira, Ana Paula; Phadtare, Amruta; Shah, Jatin; Pietrobon, Ricardo

2010-01-01

Background Although scientific innovation has been a long-standing topic of interest for historians, philosophers and cognitive scientists, few studies in biomedical research have examined from researchers' perspectives how high impact publications are developed and why they are consistently produced by a small group of researchers. Our objective was therefore to interview a group of researchers with a track record of high impact publications to explore what mechanism they believe contribute to the generation of high impact publications. Methodology/Principal Findings Researchers were located in universities all over the globe and interviews were conducted by phone. All interviews were transcribed using standard qualitative methods. A Grounded Theory approach was used to code each transcript, later aggregating concept and categories into overarching explanation model. The model was then translated into a System Dynamics mathematical model to represent its structure and behavior. Five emerging themes were found in our study. First, researchers used heuristics or rules of thumb that came naturally to them. Second, these heuristics were reinforced by positive feedback from their peers and mentors. Third, good communication skills allowed researchers to provide feedback to their peers, thus closing a positive feedback loop. Fourth, researchers exhibited a number of psychological attributes such as curiosity or open-mindedness that constantly motivated them, even when faced with discouraging situations. Fifth, the system is dominated by randomness and serendipity and is far from a linear and predictable environment. Some researchers, however, took advantage of this randomness by incorporating mechanisms that would allow them to benefit from random findings. The aggregation of these themes into a policy model represented the overall expected behavior of publications and their impact achieved by high impact researchers. Conclusions The proposed selection mechanism provides insights that can be translated into research coaching programs as well as research policy models to optimize the introduction of high impact research at a broad scale among institutional and governmental agencies. PMID:20479867

Applicability of WRF-Lake System in Studying Reservoir-Induced Impacts on Local Climate: Case Study of Two Reservoirs with Contrasting Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Zhu, D.; Ni, G.; Sun, T.

2017-12-01

Large reservoirs play a key role in regional hydrological cycles as well as in modulating the local climate. The emerging large reservoirs in concomitant with rapid hydropower exploitation in southwestern China warrant better understanding of their impacts on local and regional climates. One of the crucial pathways through which reservoirs impact the climate is lake-atmospheric interaction. Although such interactions have been widely studied with numeric weather prediction (NWP) models, an outstanding limitation across various NWPs resides on the poor thermodynamic representation of lakes. The recent version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system has been equipped with a one-dimensional lake model to better represent the thermodynamics of large water body and has been shown to enhance the its predication skill in the lake-atmospheric interaction. In this study, we further explore the applicability of the WRF-Lake system in two reservoirs with contrasting characteristics: Miyun Reservoir with an average depth of 30 meters in North China Plain, and Nuozhadu Reservoir with an average depth of 200 meters in the Tibetan Plateau Region. Driven by the high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological forcing data, the WRF-Lake system is used to simulate the water temperature and surface energy budgets of the two reservoirs after the evaluation against temperature observations. The simulated results show the WRF-Lake model can well predict the vertical profile of water temperature in Miyun Reservoir, but underestimates deep water temperature and overestimates surface temperature in the deeper Nuozhadu Reservoir. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates the poor performance of the WRF-Lake system in Nuozhadu Reservoir could be attributed to the weak vertical mixing in the model, which can be improved by tuning the eddy diffusion coefficient ke . Keywords: reservoir-induced climatic impact; lake-atmospheric interaction; WRF-Lake system; hydropower exploitation

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

PubMed Central

Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

2014-01-01

The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere–ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system—System 4—has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981–2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid-latitude circulation regimes over the Pacific–North America region. PMID:24842026

Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

PubMed

Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

2018-03-01

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used to develop improved regional impact assessments for situations where multi-crop rotations better represent predominant agricultural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating grazing practices in a complete livestock system model: estimating soil carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions in grazed versus un-grazed agroecosystems using the Manure-DNDC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, E. E.; Dorich, C.; Contosta, A.; Varner, R. K.

2017-12-01

In livestock agroecosystems, the combined contributions of enteric fermentation, manure management, and livestock grazing and/or feed production play an important role in agroecosystem carbon (C) storage and GHG losses, with complete livestock system models acting as important tools to evaluate the full impacts of these complex systems. The Manure-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model is one such example, simulating impacts on C and nitrogen cycling, estimating methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and ammonium dynamics in fields, manure storage, and enteric emissions. This allows the evaluation of differences in GHG and soil C impacts between conventional and organic dairy production systems, which differ in their use of grazed pasture versus confined feeding operations. However, Manure-DNDC has received limited testing in representing variations in grazed pasture management (i.e. intensive rotational grazing versus standard grazing practices). Using a set of forage biomass, soil C, and GHG emissions data collected at four sites across New England, we parameterized and validated Manure-DNDC estimations of GHG emissions and soil C in grazed versus un-grazed systems. Soil observations from these sites showed little effect from grazing practices, but larger soil carbon differences between farms. This may be due to spatial variation in SOC, making it difficult to measure and model, or due to controls of edaphic properties that make management moot. However, to further address these questions, model development will be needed to improve Manure-DNDC simulation of rotational grazing, as high stocking density grazing over short periods resulted in forage not re-growing sufficiently within the model. Furthermore, model simulations did not account for variation in interactions between livestock and soil given variability in field microclimates, perhaps requiring simulations that divide a single field into multiple paddocks to move towards more accurate evaluation of grazing management used in dairy operations in cool season pastures.

A Systems Approach to Exposure Modeling (ExpoCast)(FutureTox3)

EPA Science Inventory

Systems Biology might be described as the understanding of how interactions on multiple scales integrate into a homeostatic system. Systems Toxicology could then be the study of the impact of chemical perturbations of homeostasis. Systems exposure might then be the study of the i...

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

EPA Science Inventory

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S. S.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Tallapragada, V.; Black, P. G.; Bond, N.; Chen, S.; Cione, J.; Cronin, M. F.; Ginis, I.; Liu, B.; Miller, L.; Jayne, S. R.; Sanabia, E.; Shay, L. K.; Uhlhorn, E.; Zhu, L.

2016-02-01

Established in 2009, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) is a ten-year project to promote accelerated improvements hurricane track and intensity forecasts (Gall et al. 2013). The Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) consisting of model developers and research scientists was formed as one of HFIP working groups in December 2014, to evaluate the impact of ocean coupling in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. The team investigated the ocean model impact in real cases for Category 3 Hurricane Edouard in 2014, using simulations and observations that were collected for different stages of the hurricane. Two Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes in 2015, Blanca and Dolores, are also of special interest. These two powerful Category 4 storms followed a similar track, however, they produced dramatically different ocean cooling, about 7.2oC for Hurricane Blanca but only about 2.7oC for Hurricane Dolores, and the corresponding intensity changes were negative 40 ms-1 and 20 ms-1, respectively. Two versions of operational HWRF and COAMPS-TC coupled prediction systems are employed in the study. These systems are configured to have 1D and 3D ocean dynamics coupled to the atmosphere. The ocean components are initialized separately with climatology, analysis and nowcast products to evaluate the impact of ocean initialization on hurricane forecasts. Real storm forecast experiments are being designed and performed with different levels of the ocean model complexity and various model configurations to study model sensitivity. In this talk, we report the OMITT activities conducted during the past year, present preliminary results of on-going investigation of air-sea interactions in the simulations, and discuss future plans toward improving coupled TC predictions. Gall, R., J. Franklin, F. Marks, E.N. Rappaport, and F. Toepfer, 2013: THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 329-343.

Video display engineering and optimization system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larimer, James (Inventor)

1997-01-01

A video display engineering and optimization CAD simulation system for designing a LCD display integrates models of a display device circuit, electro-optics, surface geometry, and physiological optics to model the system performance of a display. This CAD system permits system performance and design trade-offs to be evaluated without constructing a physical prototype of the device. The systems includes a series of modules which permit analysis of design trade-offs in terms of their visual impact on a viewer looking at a display.

Techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of an attached growth algal biorefinery.

PubMed

Barlow, Jay; Sims, Ronald C; Quinn, Jason C

2016-11-01

This study examined the sustainability of generating renewable diesel via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of biomass from a rotating algal biofilm reactor. Pilot-scale growth studies and laboratory-scale HTL experiments were used to validate an engineering system model. The engineering system model served as the foundation to evaluate the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the system at full scale. Techno-economic results indicate that biomass feedstock costs dominated the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), with a base case of $104.31per gallon. Life-cycle assessment results show a base-case global warming potential (GWP) of 80gCO2-eMJ(-1) and net energy ratio (NER) of 1.65 based on a well-to-product system boundary. Optimization of the system reduces MFSP, GWP and NER to $11.90Gal(-1), -44gCO2-eMJ(-1), and 0.33, respectively. The systems-level impacts of integrating algae cultivation with wastewater treatment were found to significantly reduce environmental impact. Sensitivity analysis showed that algal productivity most significantly affected fuel selling price, emphasizing the importance of optimizing biomass productivity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling behavior in the dynamics of citations to scientific journals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picoli, S., Jr.; Mendes, R. S.; Malacarne, L. C.; Lenzi, E. K.

2006-08-01

We analyze a database comprising the impact factor (citations per recent items published) of scientific journals for a 13-year period (1992 2004). We find that i) the distribution of impact factors follows asymptotic power law behavior, ii) the distribution of annual logarithmic growth rates has an exponential form, and iii) the width of this distribution decays with the impact factor as a power law with exponent β simeq 0.22. The results ii) and iii) are surprising similar to those observed in the growth dynamics of organizations with complex internal structure suggesting the existence of common mechanisms underlying the dynamics of these systems. We propose a general model for such systems, an extension of the simplest model for firm growth, and compare their predictions with our empirical results.

Measuring mobile patient safety information system success: an empirical study.

PubMed

Jen, Wen-Yuan; Chao, Chia-Cheng

2008-10-01

The Health Risk Reminders and Surveillance (HRRS) system was designed to deliver critical abnormal test results of severely ill patients from Laboratory, Radiology, and Pathology departments to physicians within 5 min using cell phone text messages. This paper explores the success of the HRRS system. This study employed an augmented version of the DeLone and McLean IS success model. Seven variables (system quality, information quality, system use, user satisfaction, mobile healthcare anxiety, impact on the individual and impact on the organization) were used to evaluate the success of the HRRS system. The interrelationships between the seven variables were hypothesized and the hypotheses were empirically tested. The results indicate that the information quality of the HRRS system is positively associated with both system use and user satisfaction. In addition, system use is positively associated with user satisfaction, which is also positively associated with mobile healthcare anxiety. Moreover, results indicate that impact on the individual is positively associated with both user satisfaction and mobile healthcare anxiety. Finally, the impact of the organization is positively associated with impact on the individual. The results of the study provide an expanded understanding of the factors that contribute to mobile patient safety information system (IS) success. Implications of the relationship between system use and physician mobile healthcare anxiety are discussed.

Integrating Geomorphic and Social Dynamics in the Analysis of Anthropogenic Landforms: Examining Landscape Evolution of Terrain Modified by Agricultural Terracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaubius, J.; Maerker, M.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic landforms, such as mines and agricultural terraces, are impacted by both geomorphic and social processes at varying intensities through time. In the case of agricultural terraces, decisions regarding terrace maintenance are intertwined with land use, such as when terraced fields are abandoned. Furthermore, terrace maintenance and land use decisions, either jointly or separately, may be in response to geomorphic processes, as well as geomorphic feedbacks. Previous studies of these complex geomorphic systems considered agricultural terraces as static features or analyzed only the geomorphic response to landowner decisions. Such research is appropriate for short-term or binary landscape scenarios (e.g. the impact of maintained vs. abandoned terraces), but the complexities inherent in these socio-natural systems requires an approach that includes both social and geomorphic processes. This project analyzes feedbacks and emergent properties in terraced systems by implementing a coupled landscape evolution model (LEM) and agent-based model (ABM) using the Landlab and Mesa modeling libraries. In the ABM portion of the model, agricultural terraces are conceptualized using a life-cycle stages schema and implemented using Markov Decision Processes to simulate the changing geomorphic impact of terracing based on human decisions. This paper examines the applicability of this approach by comparing results from a LEM-only model against the coupled LEM-ABM model for a terraced region. Model results are compared by quantify and spatial patterning of sediment transport. This approach fully captures long-term landscape evolution of terraced terrain that is otherwise lost when the life-cycle of terraces is not considered. The coupled LEM-ABM approach balances both environmental and social processes so that the socio-natural feedbacks in such anthropogenic systems can be disentangled.

Modeling the impact of simulated educational interventions on the use and abuse of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States: a report on initial efforts.

PubMed

Wakeland, Wayne; Nielsen, Alexandra; Schmidt, Teresa D; McCarty, Dennis; Webster, Lynn R; Fitzgerald, John; Haddox, J David

2013-10-01

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data. After the base model was tested, logic to represent three educational interventions was added and the impact of each intervention on simulated overdose deaths was evaluated over a 7-year evaluation period, 2008 to 2015. Principal findings were that a prescriber education intervention not only reduced total overdose deaths in the model but also reduced the total number of persons who receive opioid analgesic therapy, medical user education not only reduced overdose deaths among medical users but also resulted in increased deaths from nonmedical use, and a "popularity" intervention sharply reduced overdose deaths among nonmedical users while having no effect on medical use. System dynamics modeling shows promise for evaluating potential interventions to ameliorate the adverse outcomes associated with the complex system surrounding the use of opioid analgesics to treat pain.

ISALE impact simulations in support of AIDA mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oklay, Nilda; Vincent, Jean-Baptiste; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen

2016-07-01

Introduction: The Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint project of ESA and NASA with two independent spacecraft. ESA's contribution is an observer satellite called Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM, [1]), and NASA's contribution is a projectile called Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART, [2]). The target of the mission is a near-Earth binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos. The aim is to study the possibility of deflecting an asteroid by using a kinetic impactor, as well as to characterize the internal properties of the target and test various relevant technologies for other missions. The design is that the DART would impact the secondary of the binary system and AIM would characterize the target asteroid, observe the impact event and measure the changes in the relative orbit after the impact. Impact modeling will be used to interpret the results of the AIDA impact event. There are numerous impact simulation codes, which are planned to be used to understand the AIDA impact results. Therefore an international benchmarking program is ongoing for the comparison of the results of various codes on the defined test cases [3]. We will present the results of the test cases performed by iSALE hydrocode. Modeling: In this work we use the iSALE-2D shock physics code [4], which is based on the SALE hydrocode solution algorithm [5]. To simulate hypervelocity impact processes in solid materials SALE was modified to include an elastoplastic constitutive model, fragmentation models, various EOS, and multiple materials [6, 7]. More recent improvements include a modified strength model [8] and a porosity compaction model [4, 9]. References: [1] Michel P. et al., 2016, ASR, submitted [2] Cheng A. F. et al., (2016) PSS, 121, 27-35 [3] Stickle A. M. et al., (2016). 47th LPSC [4] Wünnemann,K. et al., (2006). Icarus, 180:514-527 [5] Amsden, A., et al., (1980) LANL Report, LA-8095:101p. [6] Melosh, H. J., et al., (1992). J. Geophys. Res., 97(E9):14735-14759 [7] Ivanov, B. A., et al., (1997) Int. J. Imp. Eng., 20:411-430; [8] Collins, G. S., et al., (2004). Met. & Planet. Sci., 39:217-231. [9] Collins, G., et al., (2011) Int. J. Imp. Eng., 38:434-439

Nutrients in estuaries--an overview and the potential impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Statham, Peter J

2012-09-15

The fate and cycling of macronutrients introduced into estuaries depend upon a range of interlinked processes. Hydrodynamics and morphology in combination with freshwater inflow control the freshwater flushing time, and the timescale for biogeochemical processes to operate that include microbial activity, particle-dissolved phase interactions, and benthic exchanges. In some systems atmospheric inputs and exchanges with coastal waters can also be important. Climate change will affect nutrient inputs and behaviour through modifications to temperature, wind patterns, the hydrological cycle, and sea level rise. Resulting impacts include: 1) inundation of freshwater systems 2) changes in stratification, flushing times and phytoplankton productivity 3) increased coastal storm activity 4) changes in species and ecosystem function. A combination of continuing high inputs of nutrients through human activity and climate change is anticipated to lead to enhanced eutrophication in the future. The most obvious impacts of increasing global temperature will be in sub-arctic systems where permafrost zones will be reduced in combination with enhanced inputs from glacial systems. Improved process understanding in several key areas including cycling of organic N and P, benthic exchanges, resuspension, impact of bio-irrigation, particle interactions, submarine groundwater discharges, and rates and magnitude of bacterially-driven recycling processes, is needed. Development of high frequency in situ nutrient analysis systems will provide data to improve predictive models that need to incorporate a wider variety of key factors, although the complexity of estuarine systems makes such modelling a challenge. However, overall a more holistic approach is needed to effectively understand, predict and manage the impact of macronutrients on estuaries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research in nonlinear structural and solid mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccomb, H. G., Jr. (Compiler); Noor, A. K. (Compiler)

1981-01-01

Recent and projected advances in applied mechanics, numerical analysis, computer hardware and engineering software, and their impact on modeling and solution techniques in nonlinear structural and solid mechanics are discussed. The fields covered are rapidly changing and are strongly impacted by current and projected advances in computer hardware. To foster effective development of the technology perceptions on computing systems and nonlinear analysis software systems are presented.

The buffer value of groundwater when well yield is limited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, T.; Brozović, N.; Speir, C.

2017-04-01

A large proportion of the total value of groundwater in conjunctive use systems is associated with the ability to smooth out shortfalls in surface water supply during droughts. Previous research has argued that aquifer depletion in these regions will impact farmers negatively by reducing the available stock of groundwater to buffer production in future periods, and also by increasing the costs of groundwater extraction. However, existing studies have not considered how depletion may impact the productivity of groundwater stocks in conjunctive use systems through reductions in well yields. In this work, we develop a hydro-economic modeling framework to quantify the effects of changes in well yields on the buffer value of groundwater, and apply this model to an illustrative case study of tomato production in California's Central Valley. Our findings demonstrate that farmers with low well yields are forced to forgo significant production and profits because instantaneous groundwater supply is insufficient to buffer surface water shortfalls in drought years. Negative economic impacts of low well yields are an increasing function of surface water variability, and are also greatest for farmers operating less efficient irrigation systems. These results indicate that impacts of well yield reductions on the productivity of groundwater are an important economic impact of aquifer depletion, and that failure to consider this feedback may lead to significant errors in estimates of the value of groundwater management in conjunctive use systems.

Impact Challenges in Community Science-with-Practice: Lessons from PROSPER on Transformative Practitioner-Scientist Partnerships and Prevention Infrastructure Development

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Mark

2011-01-01

At present, evidence-based programs (EBPs) to reduce youth violence are failing to translate into widespread community practice, despite their potential for impact on this pervasive public health problem. In this paper we address two types of challenges in the achievement of such impact, drawing upon lessons from the implementation of a partnership model called PROSPER. First, we address five key challenges in the achievement of community-level impact through effective community planning and action: readiness and mobilization of community teams; maintaining EBP implementation quality; sustaining community teams and EBPs; demonstrating community-level impact; and continuous, proactive technical assistance. Second, we consider grand challenges in the large-scale translation of EBPs: (1) building, linking and expanding existing infrastructures to support effective EBP delivery systems, and (2) organizing networks of practitioner-scientist partnerships—networks designed to integrate diffusion of EBPs with research that examines effective strategies to do so. The PROSPER partnership model is an evidence-based delivery system for community-based prevention and has evolved through two decades of NIH-funded research, assisted by land grant universities' Cooperative Extension Systems. Findings and lessons of relevance to each of the challenges are summarized. In this context, we outline how practitioner-scientist partnerships can serve to transform EBP delivery systems, particularly in conjunction with supportive federal policy. PMID:21222151

Impact challenges in community science-with-practice: lessons from PROSPER on transformative practitioner-scientist partnerships and prevention infrastructure development.

PubMed

Spoth, Richard; Greenberg, Mark

2011-09-01

At present, evidence-based programs (EBPs) to reduce youth violence are failing to translate into widespread community practice, despite their potential for impact on this pervasive public health problem. In this paper we address two types of challenges in the achievement of such impact, drawing upon lessons from the implementation of a partnership model called PROSPER. First, we address five key challenges in the achievement of community-level impact through effective community planning and action: readiness and mobilization of community teams; maintaining EBP implementation quality; sustaining community teams and EBPs; demonstrating community-level impact; and continuous, proactive technical assistance. Second, we consider grand challenges in the large-scale translation of EBPs: (1) building, linking and expanding existing infrastructures to support effective EBP delivery systems, and (2) organizing networks of practitioner-scientist partnerships-networks designed to integrate diffusion of EBPs with research that examines effective strategies to do so. The PROSPER partnership model is an evidence-based delivery system for community-based prevention and has evolved through two decades of NIH-funded research, assisted by land grant universities' Cooperative Extension Systems. Findings and lessons of relevance to each of the challenges are summarized. In this context, we outline how practitioner-scientist partnerships can serve to transform EBP delivery systems, particularly in conjunction with supportive federal policy.

Pressure scaled water impact test of a 12.5 inch diameter model of the Space Shuttle solid rocket booster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A total of 59 tail first drops were made. Model entry conditions simulated full scale vertical velocities of approximately 75 to 110 ft/sec with horizontal velocities up to 45 ft/sec and impact angles to + or - 10 deg. These tests were conducted at scaled atmospheric pressures (1.26 psia or 65 mm.Hg). The model, test program, test facility, test equipment, instrumentation system, data reduction procedures, and test results are described.

Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - Addendum

EIA Publications

2002-01-01

This assessment of the economic impacts of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards marks the first time the Energy Information Administration has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

Mechanical Aspects of Interfaces and Surfaces in Ceramic Containing Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-14

of a computer model to simulate the crack damage. The model is based on the fracture mechanics of cracks engulfed by the short stress pulse generated...by drop impact. Inertial effects of the crack faces are a particularly important aspect of the model. The computer scheme thereby allows the stress...W. R. Beaumont, "On the Toughness of Particulate Filled Polymers." Water Drop Impact X. E. D. Case and A. G. Evans, "A Computer -Generated Simulation

Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Huete, Alfredo; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic,Slobodan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Krapfl, Heide; Budge, Amy; Zelicoff, Alan; VandeWater, Peter K.;

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Geels, Camilla; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Solazzo, Efisio; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Alyuz, Ummugulsum; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baro, Rocio; Bellasio, Roberto; Bianconi, Roberto; Bieser, Johannes; Colette, Augustin; Curci, Gabriele; Farrow, Aidan; Flemming, Johannes; Fraser, Andrea; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Liang, Ciao-Kai; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Pirovano, Guido; Pozzoli, Luca; Prank, Marje; Rose, Rebecca; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Tuccella, Paolo; Unal, Alper; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; West, Jason; Yarwood, Greg; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2018-04-01

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ˜ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ˜ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ˜ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

[CLIMATE CHANGE AND ALLERGIC AIRWAY DISEASE] OBSERVATIONAL,LABORATORY, AND MODELING STUDIES OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONALLERGIC AIRWAY DISEASE

EPA Science Inventory

Based on these data and preliminary studies, this proposal will be composed of a multiscale source-to-dose analysis approach for assessing the exposure interactions of environmental and biological systems. Once the entire modeling system is validated, it will run f...

Educator Evaluation and the Impact on Teacher Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carreiro, Diane M.

2017-01-01

Educator evaluation is described in the literature as those systems in place used to supervise educator excellence as well as to maximize and foster teacher capacity. There have been many changes within the last five years in the Massachusetts educator evaluation model, now called the Massachusetts Model System for Educator Evaluation. Once…

The Influence on CMAQ Modeled Wet and Dry Deposition of Advances in the CMAQ Systems for Meteorology and Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Process level improvements in the CMAQ system have been made to WRF meteorology, national ammonia emission profiles, and CMAQ ammonia air-surface exchange. An incremental study was conducted to quantify the impact of individual and combined changes on modeled inorganic depositio...

Impact of a Flexible Evaluation System on Effort and Timing of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pacharn, Parunchana; Bay, Darlene; Felton, Sandra

2012-01-01

This paper examines results of a flexible grading system that allows each student to influence the weight allocated to each performance measure. We construct a stylized model to determine students' optimal responses. Our analytical model predicts different optimal strategies for students with varying academic abilities: a frontloading strategy for…

Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cartwright, T.J.

1993-12-31

This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modelingmore » Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.« less

Effect of Impacts on the Cooling Rates of Differentiated Planetesimals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, R. J.; Bowling, T. J.; Ciesla, F. J.; Davison, T. M.; Collins, G. S.

2018-05-01

I have modeled planetismal impacts in the early solar system, following their formation, differentiation, and cooling. I found that small collisions can expose the core, resulting in more than an order of magnitude increase in the cooling rates.

Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

EPA Science Inventory

The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

Protocol and Demonstrations of Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring Systems (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

assessment to quality of localization/characterization estimates. This protocol includes four critical components: (1) a procedure to identify the...critical factors impacting SHM system performance; (2) a multistage or hierarchical approach to SHM system validation; (3) a model -assisted evaluation...Lindgren, E. A ., Buynak, C. F., Steffes, G., Derriso, M., “ Model -assisted Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring

Impact of the Systemic Approach on Literacy Achievement of Jordanian 1st Graders at Mu'tah University Model School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Hajaya, Nail

2012-01-01

This study investigates the effect of the systemic approach in literacy achievement of the first grade students at Mu'tah University's Model School. The sample (N = 45) consisted of all first grade students, who were assigned into two groups; a control group taught traditionally while the other group was exposed to the system approach during the…

LCA-based optimization of wood utilization under special consideration of a cascading use of wood.

PubMed

Höglmeier, Karin; Steubing, Bernhard; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele; Richter, Klaus

2015-04-01

Cascading, the use of the same unit of a resource in multiple successional applications, is considered as a viable means to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and to decrease environmental impacts. Wood, as a regrowing but nevertheless limited and increasingly in demand resource, can be used in cascades, thereby increasing the potential efficiency per unit of wood. This study aims to assess the influence of cascading wood utilization on optimizing the overall environmental impact of wood utilization. By combining a material flow model of existing wood applications - both for materials provision and energy production - with an algebraic optimization tool, the effects of the use of wood in cascades can be modelled and quantified based on life cycle impact assessment results for all production processes. To identify the most efficient wood allocation, the effects of a potential substitution of non-wood products were taken into account in a part of the model runs. The considered environmental indicators were global warming potential, particulate matter formation, land occupation and an aggregated single score indicator. We found that optimizing either the overall global warming potential or the value of the single score indicator of the system leads to a simultaneous relative decrease of all other considered environmental impacts. The relative differences between the impacts of the model run with and without the possibility of a cascading use of wood were 7% for global warming potential and the single score indicator, despite cascading only influencing a small part of the overall system, namely wood panel production. Cascading led to savings of up to 14% of the annual primary wood supply of the study area. We conclude that cascading can improve the overall performance of a wood utilization system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.