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Sample records for impending regime shift

  1. Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it.

    PubMed

    Biggs, Reinette; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2009-01-20

    Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts.

  2. The detection of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information(presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  3. The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  4. Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift.

    PubMed

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of 'abrupt' change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

  5. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  6. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  7. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-10-06

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.

  8. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

    PubMed Central

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-01-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions—regime shifts—are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water–vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  9. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

    2013-07-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.

  10. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  11. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D.; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  12. Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

    PubMed

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

  13. Signals of impending change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, James B.

    2017-01-01

    Society has an increasing awareness that there are finite limits to what we can expect the planet to absorb and still provide goods and services at current rates1. Both historical reconstructions and contemporary events continue to remind us that ecological regime changes are often abrupt rather than gradual. This reality motivates researchers who seek to discover leading indicators for impending ecosystem change. Berdugo et al.2 report an important advance in our ability to anticipate the conversion of arid lands from self-organized, self-maintaining and productive ecosystems, to a state characterized by disorganization and low functionality. Such conversions have important implications for our understanding of ‘desertification’ — which is a shift from arid to desert-like conditions.Theoretical studies have suggested that patterns in the patchiness of vegetation might indicate how close a system is to making an abrupt change to desert-like conditions3,4,5. Empirical studies, however, have tended to show instead that simply the total cover of vegetation, rather than its arrangement, often foretells the state of the system4,5,6,7,8,9. Berdugo et al.2 combine these competing ideas into one integrated perspective. They show how major environmental drivers, such as aridity, influence both vegetation cover and patchiness, as well as where self-organizing, stabilizing forces in the vegetation are likely to be found.

  14. TBT causes regime shift in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Sayer, Carl D; Hoare, Daniel J; Simpson, Gavin L; Henderson, Andrew C G; Liptrot, Eleanor R; Jackson, Michael J; Appleby, Peter G; Boyle, John F; Jones, I Iwan; Waldock, Mike J

    2006-09-01

    Tributyltin (TBT) is an organotin compound used since the early 1960s as a biocide in boat antifouling paints. Its use has been linked to a host of negative effects in marine ecosystems including malformations and imposex in Mollusca and acute toxicity in many other aquatic animals. Yet, the consequences of TBT use in freshwaters are largely unknown. Here, for the first time we reveal that TBT may have caused hitherto unsuspected damage to freshwater ecosystems. Through an analysis of dated sediment cores collected from a system of recreationally boated, shallow lakes, we show that first evidence of TBT is associated with a dramatic loss of submerged vegetation and associated diverse animal communities. Cause and effect are difficult to unravel in our study. However, we hypothesize that TBT, through reducing populations of grazing organisms in lakes already affected by eutrophication, promoted the replacement of macrophytes by phytoplankton, ultimately leading to a regime shift in the ecosystem. Our findings may have parallels in freshwater ecosystems all over the world.

  15. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  16. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  17. Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Pace, Michael L

    2011-10-01

    Regime shifts are massive, often irreversible, rearrangements of nonlinear ecological processes that occur when systems pass critical transition points. Ecological regime shifts sometimes have severe consequences for human well-being, including eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and species extinctions. Theoretical and laboratory evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in ecological time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert incipient regime shifts. Conditional heteroscedasticity is persistent variance characteristic of time series with clustered volatility. Here, we analyze conditional heteroscedasticity as a potential leading indicator of regime shifts in ecological time series. We evaluate conditional heteroscedasticity by using ecological models with and without four types of critical transition. On approaching transition points, all time series contain significant conditional heteroscedasticity. This signal is detected hundreds of time steps in advance of the regime shift. Time series without regime shifts do not have significant conditional heteroscedasticity. Because probability values are easily associated with tests for conditional heteroscedasticity, detection of false positives in time series without regime shifts is minimized. This property reduces the need for a reference system to compare with the perturbed system.

  18. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, J.; Yletyinen, J.; Biggs, R.; Blenckner, T.; Peterson, G.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  19. Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, G.; Conversi, A.; Chiba, S.; Edwards, M.; Fonda-Umani, S.; Greene, C.; Mantua, N.; Otto, S. A.; Reid, P. C.; Stachura, M. M.; Stemmann, L.; Sugisaki, H.

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

  20. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  1. Regime shifts in North Sea and Baltic Sea: A comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Möller, Caroline; Hänninen, Jari

    2012-12-01

    The ICES subdivisions in the North Sea (SD IIIa, SD IVa, and SD IVb) and the subdivisions in the Baltic Sea (SD 29, SD 27/28-2, and SD 25/26) are selected to compare the response in long term monitoring data (1970-2000) with respect to climate regime shifts. A modified AMOEBA model is applied to the data sets to identify the status and development of the North Sea and Baltic Sea system during two recent regime shifts. Biological regime shifts can be identified 1989/1990 in SD IIIa in the North Sea and in SD 25/26 in the Baltic Sea. A synchronous appearance of regime shifts could only be identified in the central and southern Baltic Sea for both regime shifts 1975/76 and 1989/90 where the AMOEBA model indicated a high similarity in ecosystem response. A clear difference was identified in the response of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability as well as regime shifts are driven in the Baltic Sea by direct atmospheric forcing only. In contrast, the changes in the North Sea are influenced by both the direct atmospheric forcing and the indirect forcing from the changes in North Atlantic. The fact that regime shifts as well as their synchronous appearance can be identified with the AMOEBA model might be of major interest for the management of sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services, the development of ecosystem approach to management and the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union (EU).

  2. Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Linares, Cristina; Dakos, Vasilis; van de Leemput, Ingrid A; van Nes, Egbert H

    2013-03-01

    Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun.

  3. Connectivity, regime shifts and the resilience of coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmhirst, Toby; Connolly, Sean R.; Hughes, Terry P.

    2009-12-01

    Connectivity of larvae among metapopulations in open marine systems can be a double-edged sword, allowing for the colonization and replenishment of both desirable and undesirable elements of interacting species-rich assemblages. This article studies the effect of recruitment by coral and macroalgae on the resilience of grazed reef ecosystems. In particular, we focus on how larval connectivity affects regime shifts between alternative assemblages that are dominated either by corals or by macroalgae. Using a model with bistability dynamics, we show that recruitment of coral larvae erodes the resilience of a macroalgae-dominated ecosystem when grazing is high, but has negligible effect when grazing is low. Conversely, recruitment by macroalgae erodes the resilience of a coral-dominated ecosystem when grazing is low, leading to a regime shift to macroalgae. Thus, spillover of coral recruits from highly protected areas will not restore coral cover or prevent flips to macroalgae in the surrounding seascape if grazing levels in these areas are depleted, but may be pivotal for re-building coral populations if grazing is high. Fishing restrictions and the re-introduction of herbivores should therefore be a prime conservation objective for preventing undesirable regime shifts. Connectivity by some components of coral reef assemblages (e.g., macroalgae, pathogens, crown-of-thorns starfish) may be detrimental to sustaining reefs, especially where overfishing and other drivers have eroded their resilience, making them more vulnerable to a regime shift.

  4. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention.

  5. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  6. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

  7. Unsustainable Groundwater Exploitation and Stochastic Regime Shifts: Converging Management Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Suresh; Park, Jeryang

    2014-05-01

    Increasing water security concerns arise from projected increases in competing freshwater demands, resulting from rapid urbanization, growing affluent population, and the need for increased production of food and bio-energy. These global trends in concert with the convergence of three groups of threats are likely to exacerbate freshwater security issues: (1) increasing dependency on effectively non-renewable groundwater ("peak water"); (2) increasing groundwater quality impairment("land-use intensification") from larger contaminant loads delivered from the vadose zone and surface water; and (3) increasing uncertainties in groundwater demand/supply from climate change ("stochastic risks"). Here, we present a conceptual framework for exploring water security threats, with a consideration of aquifers as complex hydrological systems with two stable states. Regime shifts in groundwater pumping -- from "sufficient" to "insufficient" -- result from changes in both internal system dynamics and external forcing from stochastic divers (non-stationary demands, hydro-climatic patterns). Examples from recent related work, in groundwater and surface water systems and ecosystems, are briefly reviewed as a prelude to presentation of model simulations of hypothetical scenarios of regime-shifts (tipping points) involving groundwater quantity and quality constraints. In addition to three types of widely recognized tipping points, we introduce a new type, stochastic tipping, that contributes to unexpected, undesirable regime shifts, resulting in inability to meet groundwater pumping needs, even when the perceived precariousness is small and the system is far from bifurcation point (deterministic tipping). Implications to sustainable groundwater management are discussed.

  8. Socioecological regime shifts in the setting of complex social interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiarto, Hendrik Santoso; Chung, Ning Ning; Lai, Choy Heng; Chew, Lock Yue

    2015-06-01

    The coupling between social and ecological system has become more ubiquitous and predominant in the current era. The strong interaction between these systems can bring about regime shifts which in the extreme can lead to the collapse of social cooperation and the extinction of ecological resources. In this paper, we study the occurrence of such regime shifts in the context of a coupled social-ecological system where social cooperation is established by means of sanction that punishes local selfish act and promotes norms that prescribe nonexcessive resource extraction. In particular, we investigate the role of social networks on social-ecological regimes shift and the corresponding hysteresis effects caused by the local ostracism mechanism under different social and ecological parameters. Our results show that a lowering of network degree reduces the hysteresis effect and also alters the tipping point, which is duly verified by our numerical results and analytical estimation. Interestingly, the hysteresis effect is found to be stronger in scale-free network in comparison with random network even when both networks have the same average degree. These results provide deeper insights into the resilience of these systems, and can have important implications on the management of coupled social-ecological systems with complex social interactions.

  9. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-08

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

  10. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  11. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  12. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos

    PubMed Central

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E.; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980–2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  13. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos.

    PubMed

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-08-28

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years.

  14. Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: what do we need to know and when do we need to know it?

    PubMed

    Contamin, Raphael; Ellison, Aaron M

    2009-04-01

    Because novel ecological conditions can cause severe and long-lasting environmental damage with large economic costs, ecologists must identify possible environmental regime shifts and pro-actively guide ecosystem management. As an illustrative example, we applied six potential indicators of impending regime shifts to S. R. Carpenter and W. A. Brock's model of lake eutrophication and analyzed whether or not they afforded adequate advance warning to enable preventative interventions. Our initial analyses suggest that an indicator based on the high-frequency signal in the spectral density of the time-series provides the best advance warning of a regime shift, even when only incomplete information about underlying system drivers and processes is available. In light of this result, we explored two key factors associated with using indicators to prevent regime shifts. The first key factor is the amount of inertia in the system; i.e., how fast the system will react to a change in management, given that a manager can actually control relevant system drivers. If rapid, intensive management is possible, our analyses suggest that an indicator must provide at least 20 years advance warning to reduce the probability of a regime shift to < 5%. As time to intervention is increased or intensity of intervention is decreased, the necessary amount of advance warning required to avoid a regime shift increases exponentially. The second key factor concerns the amount and type of variability intrinsic to the system, and the impact of this variability on the power of an indicator. Indicators are considered powerful if they detect an impending regime shift with adequate lead time for effective management intervention, but not so far in advance that interventions are too costly or unnecessary. Intrinsic "noise" in the system obscures the "signal" provided by all indicators, and therefore, the power of the indicators declines rapidly with increasing within- and between-year variability in

  15. Regime shifts in the Humboldt Current ecosystem [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Niquen, Miguel

    2004-02-01

    Of the four major eastern boundary currents, the Humboldt Current (HC) stands out because it is extremely productive, dominated by anchovy dynamics and subject to frequent direct environmental perturbations of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term dynamics of the HC ecosystem are controlled by shifts between alternating anchovy and sardine regimes that restructure the entire ecosystem from phytoplankton to the top predators. These regime shifts are caused by lasting periods of warm or cold temperature anomalies related to the approach or retreat of warm subtropical oceanic waters to the coast of Peru and Chile. Phases with mainly negative temperature anomalies parallel anchovy regimes (1950-1970; 1985 to the present) and the rather warm period from 1970 to 1985 was characterized by sardine dominance. The transition periods (turning points) from one regime to the other were 1968-1970 and 1984-1986. Like an El Nino, the warm periods drastically change trophic relationships in the entire HC ecosystem, exposing the Peruvian anchovy to a multitude of adverse conditions. Positive temperature anomalies off Peru drive the anchovy population close to the coast as the coastal upwelling cells usually offer the coolest environment, thereby substantially decreasing the extent of the areas of anchovy distribution and spawning. This enhances the effects of negative density-dependent processes such as egg and larval cannibalism and dramatically increases its catchability. Increased spatial overlap between anchovies and the warmer water preferring sardines intensifies anchovy egg mortality further as sardines feed heavily on anchovy eggs. Food sources for juvenile and adult anchovies which prey on a mixed diet of phyto- and zooplankton are drastically reduced because of decreased plankton production due to restricted upwelling in warm years, as demonstrated by lower zooplankton and phytoplankton volumes and the diminution of the fraction of large copepods, their

  16. Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests

    PubMed Central

    Lindenmayer, David B.; Hobbs, Richard J.; Likens, Gene E.; Krebs, Charles J.; Banks, Samuel C.

    2011-01-01

    We describe the “landscape trap” concept, whereby entire landscapes are shifted into, and then maintained (trapped) in, a highly compromised structural and functional state as the result of multiple temporal and spatial feedbacks between human and natural disturbance regimes. The landscape trap concept builds on ideas like stable alternative states and other relevant concepts, but it substantively expands the conceptual thinking in a number of unique ways. In this paper, we (i) review the literature to develop the concept of landscape traps, including their general features; (ii) provide a case study as an example of a landscape trap from the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of southeastern Australia; (iii) suggest how landscape traps can be detected before they are irrevocably established; and (iv) present evidence of the generality of landscape traps in different ecosystems worldwide. PMID:21876151

  17. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  18. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  19. Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

    PubMed Central

    Levin, Phillip S.; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.

  20. [(Impending) pathological fracture].

    PubMed

    Sutter, P M; Regazzoni, P

    2002-01-01

    Pathological fractures will be encountered in increasing frequency due to more patients with cancer, surviving a longer period. The skeleton is the third most frequent localization for metastases. Breast cancer is still the most common primary tumor, but bone metastases from lung cancer seem to be diagnosed more and more. Despite of finding metastases most often in the spinal column, fractures are seen mostly at the femoral site. A pathological fracture and, in almost all cases, an impending fracture are absolute indication for operation. An exact definition of an "impending fracture" is still lacking; it is widely accepted, that 50 per cent of bone mass must be destroyed before visualization in X-ray is possible, thus defining an impending fracture. The score system by Mirels estimates the fracture risk by means of four parameters (localization, per cent of destructed bone mass, type of metastasis, pain). Improving quality of life, relieving pain, preferably with a single operation and a short length of stay are the goals of (operative) treatment. For fractures of the proximal femur, prosthetic replacement, for fractures of the subtrochanteric region or the shaft, intramedullary nails are recommended. Postoperative radiation therapy possibly avoids tumor progression. In patient with a good long term prognosis, tumor should be removed locally aggressive.

  1. Out-phased decadal precipitation regime shift in China and the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Lichao; Fu, Zuntao

    2016-08-01

    In order to understand the changes in precipitation variability associated with the climate shift around mid-1970s, the precipitation regime changes have been analyzed over both China and the USA. Specifically, a new variable is designed based on Benford's Law (BL) to detect precipitation regime shift by using only the first digit information of the datasets. This new variable describes the decadal precipitation regime shift more directly and clearly than the traditional variables, such mean or trend of yearly precipitation amount. It is found that there is an obvious out-phased relation for precipitation regime shift over China and the USA, i.e., a significant shift from the lower to the higher BL's goodness of fit (weaker to stronger precipitation intensity) in the Southern China occurred in 1979, and a significant shift from the higher to the lower BL's goodness of fit (stronger to weaker precipitation intensity) in the USA occurred around 1978.

  2. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): Evidence of a recent regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczak, Maciej T.; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik; Maar, Marie; Støttrup, Josianne G.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is a eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and main outflow to the Kattegat in the east. We showed that from 1990 to 1995, the ecosystem structure shifted from dominance by demersal fish species (eelpout, whiting, flounder, plaice) to that of pelagic fish species (sprat, herring, sticklebacks), small-bodied fish species (black goby, pipefish), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance.

  3. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, C.; Cole, H.; Henson, S.; Yool, A.; Anderson, T. R.; de Mora, L.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Totterdell, I. J.; Allen, J. I.

    2015-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

  4. Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

  5. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

    2015-01-01

    Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

  6. Resisting regime-shifts: the stabilising effect of compensatory processes.

    PubMed

    Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia

    2015-09-01

    Ecologists seem predisposed to studying change because we are intuitively interested in dynamic systems, including their vulnerability to human disturbance. We contrast this disposition with the value of studying processes that work against change. Although powerful, processes that counter disturbance often go unexplored because they yield no observable community change. This stability results from compensatory processes which are initiated by disturbance; these adjust in proportion to the strength of the disturbance to prevent community change. By recognising such buffering processes, we might also learn to recognise the early warning signals of community shifts which are notoriously difficult to predict because communities often show little to no change before their tipping point is reached.

  7. [Streptokinase in impending heart infarct].

    PubMed

    Kiemeneij, F; Schuilenburg, R M

    1989-02-18

    A patient is described with an impending myocardial infarction due to presence of an intracoronary thrombus in an otherwise normal left anterior descending artery. This case illustrates that intracoronary and intravenous administration of streptokinase can be of value in the treatment of impending myocardial infarction.

  8. Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yletyinen, Johanna; Bodin, Örjan; Weigel, Benjamin; Nordström, Marie C; Bonsdorff, Erik; Blenckner, Thorsten

    2016-02-24

    Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.

  9. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

  10. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, Claudie; Cole, Harriet; Henson, Stephanie; Yool, Andrew; Anderson, Tom; de Mora, Lee; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Butenschön, Momme; Totterdell, Ian J.; Icarus Allen, J.

    2016-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed-layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our results show that some ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, manifested as an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. Models from low to intermediate complexity simulate an abrupt transition in the late 1970s (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next) while the transition is smoother in higher complexity models. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region. These models can therefore be considered useful tools to enhance our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.

  11. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004-2008 US Housing Market Bubble.

    PubMed

    Tan, James; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.

  12. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

    PubMed Central

    Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  13. The Impending Crisis

    PubMed Central

    Kaplan, Raymond L.; Burgess, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    When you are ill and consult a physician for his or her expertise, many times laboratory testing is part of the clinical workup. This testing is critical to the physician’s ability to diagnose the patient’s condition. What if testing was not available … because there was no one to do the testing? Although seemingly far-fetched, this scenario could play itself out in the next ten years due to an impending manpower crisis in laboratory medicine. The profession of Medical Technology, also known as Clinical Laboratory Science, is experiencing a shortage of qualified individuals for a variety of reasons – not the least of which is the closure of almost 70% of the schools teaching this critical profession. Health care workers (HCW) rely on accurate and timely clinical laboratory results in order to make decisions for their patients. Because ∼ 70% of patient care decisions are based on clinical laboratory results, it is important to have a well-trained supply of laboratory professionals. This article will give an overview of the situation and the possible causes of this shortage, and pose challenges to our profession as to how this crisis can be averted. Visibility of this profession must be a prime focus of this effort in order for the population in general to be aware of the role Clinical Laboratory Scientists play in the health care consortium. This effort should begin early in the educational process, potentially as early as Middle School (junior high school), bringing awareness of the profession not only to students but to educators as well. PMID:23653714

  14. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  15. Detecting regime shifts in marine systems with limited biological data: An example from southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzow, Michael A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Frusher, Stewart D.; Dann, Peter; Tuck, Geoffrey N.

    2016-02-01

    The ability to detect ecological regime shifts in a data-limited setting was investigated, using southeast Australian ecosystems as a model. Community variability was summarized for 1968-2008 with the first two principal components (PCs) of recruitment estimates for six fish stocks and reproductive parameters for four seabird species; regional climate was summarized for 1953-2008 with the first two PCs for three parameters (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity, surface nitrate) measured at two stations; and basin-scale climate variability was summarized for 1950-2012 with mean South Pacific SST and the first two PCs of detrended South Pacific SST. The first two biology PCs explained 45% of total community variability. The first two PCs of basin-scale SST showed abrupt shifts similar to "regime" behavior observed in other ocean basins, and the first PC of basin-scale SST showed significant covariation with the first PC of regional climate. Together, these results are consistent with the strong community variability and decadal-scale red noise climatic variability associated with Northern Hemisphere regime shifts. However, statistical model selection showed that the first two PCs of regional climate and the first PC of biology time series all exhibited linear change, rather than abrupt shifts. This result is consistent with previous studies documenting rapid linear change in the climate and biology of southeast Australian shelf ecosystems, and we conclude that there is no evidence for regime shift behavior in the region's ecology. However, analysis of a large set of previously-published biological time series from the North Pacific (n = 64) suggests that studies using fewer than ∼30 biological time series, such as this one, may be unable to detect regime shifts. Thus we conclude that the nature of ecological variability in the region cannot be determined with available data. The development of additional long-term biological observations is needed

  16. Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem

  17. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2015-04-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is that the global atmospheric planetary waves can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the most recent 59-year period (1950-2008) have been identified based on Student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. The global forcing mechanism is described with a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate that examining the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries is a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from longwave (relatively smooth and less complex) to shorter

  18. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2014-08-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is the global atmospheric planetary waves that can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the recent 59 years (1950-2008) have been identified based on student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. Due to the multidisciplinary audience, the global forcing mechanism is described from a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from long wave (relatively smooth and less complex) to

  19. Regime-shifting streamflow processes: Implications for water supply reservoir operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the extent to which regime-like behavior in streamflow time series impacts reservoir operating policy performance. We begin by incorporating a regime state variable into a well-established stochastic dynamic programming model. We then simulate and compare optimized release policies—with and without the regime state variable—to understand how regime shifts affect operating performance in terms of meeting water delivery targets. Our optimization approach uses a Hidden Markov Model to partition the streamflow time series into a small number of separate regime states. The streamflow persistence structures associated with each state define separate month-to-month streamflow transition probability matrices for computing penalty cost expectations within the optimization procedure. The algorithm generates a four-dimensional array of release decisions conditioned on the within-year time period, reservoir storage state, inflow class, and underlying regime state. Our computational experiment is executed on 99 distinct, hypothetical water supply reservoirs fashioned from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Hydrologic Reference Stations. Results show that regime-like behavior is a major cause of suboptimal operations in water supply reservoirs; conventional techniques for optimal policy design may misguide the operator, particularly in regions susceptible to multiyear drought. Stationary streamflow models that allow for regime-like behavior can be incorporated into traditional stochastic optimization models to enhance the flexibility of operations.

  20. Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2017-03-01

    Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982-2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982-1996 and 2000-2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997-1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

  1. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human-environment systems.

    PubMed

    Bauch, Chris T; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-12-20

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be "doomed to criticality": Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.

  2. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  3. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

    PubMed Central

    Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-01-01

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

  4. Climate change and potential reversal of regime shifts in desrt ecosystems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Globally, regime shifts from grasslands to shrublands (i.e., desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems are thought to be irreversible, similar to state changes in other ecosystems. The consequences of desertification, including loss of soil and nutrients to wind and water erosion, reductions ...

  5. Different delays-induced regime shifts in a stochastic insect outbreak dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Jiakui; Zeng, Chunhua; Xie, Qingshuang; Guan, Lin; Dong, Xiaohui; Yang, Fengzao

    2016-11-01

    Considering time delays in the deterministic and stochastic forces, we construct stochastic delayed differential equations to investigate the regime shifts in an insect ecosystem. The stationary probability distribution (SPD) and mean first passage time (MFPT) are obtained, respectively. Our main results show: (i) The multiplicative noise, positive cross-correlation noise between two noises and time delays can induce the regime shifts from the boom outbreak state to the bust one, but the additive noise and negative cross-correlation can induce the regime shifts from the bust outbreak state to the boom one; (ii) For the negative cross-correlation, the MFPT as a function of noise strengths exhibits one maximum, which shows the characteristic of the noise-delayed switching for the boom outbreak state, but for the no cross-correlation or positive cross-correlation, the MFPT decreases with the noise strengths; (iii) Two different types of time delays play same roles on the maximal MFPT with additive noise, and play opposite roles on the maximal MFPT with multiplicative noise. The mechanisms for noises-and delays-induced regime shifts between two states can be explained physically through the effective potential of ecological model.

  6. Ecological resilience of population cycles: a dynamic perspective of regime shift.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Kenta; Yoshida, Takehito

    2015-04-07

    Studies of catastrophic regime shifts have mostly considered a simple equilibrium situation, in which there are two stable equilibria divided by an unstable equilibrium. However, populations and communities in nature often show more complex dynamics, and regime shifts in the complex dynamic systems have attracted limited attention so far. Understanding the division between alternative stable states in multispecies communities requires an extended perspective and the conventional analysis of a simple equilibrium situation cannot be applied as it is. What divides the alternative stable states can take complex structure rather than a point, and this division of alternative states is usually impossible to be obtained by analytical approaches. In this study, we developed a numerical method that can relatively easily provide the structure of the division of alternative stable states. We then applied the method to different three-species systems exhibiting oscillatory dynamics to understand their recoverability from perturbations that can bring out irreversible state change. Our results suggested that there is temporal variation of the recoverability that may not be understood straightforwardly because of the complex structure of the division of alternative stable states. Also, which of the alternative states is more vulnerable to perturbations and easier to show a regime shift can vary depending on the size of perturbation. These attributes of regime shifts have not been found in a simple equilibrium situation, suggesting the need of a dynamic aspect of the recoverability of ecological systems.

  7. Crossing the Threshold - Reviewed Evidence for Regime Shifts in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård Karlsson, J.; Destouni, G.; Peterson, G.; Gordon, L.

    2009-12-01

    The Arctic is rapidly changing, and the Arctic terrestrial ecosystems may respond to changing conditions in different ways. We review the evidence of regime shifts (ecosystem change from one set of mutually reinforcing feedbacks to another) in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems in relation to the hydrological cycle, as part of a larger interdisciplinary research project on Pan-Arctic ice-water-biogeochemical system responses and social-ecological resilience effects in a warming climate, which has in turn been part of the International Polar Year project Arctic-HYDRA. Such regime shifts may have implications for the Earth system as a whole, through changes in water flows and energy balance that yield feedbacks to hydrology and the local and global climate. Because the presence or absence of permafrost is a main control on local hydrological processes in the Arctic, we use the ecological response to permafrost warming to define three types of regime shifts: 1) Conversion of aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems due to draining of lakes and wetlands caused by permafrost degradation and thermokarst processes, which may have a large impact on local people and animals that depend on these ecosystems for food, domestic needs, and habitat, and on climate as the water conditions influence the direction of CO2 exchange. 2) Conversion of terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems as forests are being replaced by wet sedge meadows, bogs, and thermokarst ponds that favor aquatic birds and mammals, as thawing permafrost atop continuous permafrost undermines and destroys the root zone, leading to collapse and death of the trees. 3) Shifts in terrestrial ecosystems due to transition from tundra to shrubland and/or forest, caused by warming of air and soil, resulting in increased surface energy exchanges and albedo, which may in turn feed back to enhanced warming at the local-regional scale. We compare the impact, scale and key processes for each of these regime shifts, and assess the degree to

  8. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  9. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  10. Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chang Ik; Lee, Jae Bong; Kim, Suam; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2000-10-01

    There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987-89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.

  11. Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

  12. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

    2016-01-01

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

  13. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R; Stow, Craig A; Sundstrom, Shana M

    2016-06-29

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

  14. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2012-01-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  15. Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands.

    PubMed

    Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hashizume, Masahiro; Satake, Akiko; Minakawa, Noboru

    2012-01-01

    Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.

  16. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns.

    PubMed

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant.

  17. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation. PMID:26132268

  18. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

  19. Regime-shifts in the southern Benguela shelf and inshore region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blamey, Laura K.; Howard, James A. E.; Agenbag, Jacobus; Jarre, Astrid

    2012-11-01

    Over the past two decades, several species have undergone distributional shifts in the southern Benguela. The commercially-important West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii is one of these, and its shift in distribution has had profound effects on the rest of the ecosystem along the south-west coast. Reasons for these shifts are not fully understood, but are probably linked to changes in environmental conditions. We applied a sequential t-test algorithm for analyzing regime shifts (STARS) to physical (wind and upwelling) and biological (rock-lobster catch and growth, Bank Cormorant abundance) data for the southern Benguela inshore region and performed sensitivity tests on each of the variables. Regime shifts were defined as ‘robust’ or ‘possible’ if they were detected for ⩾70% or ⩾60% of the sensitivity tests respectively. To corroborate the shifts detected by STARS, we then applied two additional methods: change point analysis and the Chow breakpoint test. The STARS method outperformed the other two methods because it could handle shorter time series and detect shifts towards the end of the time series, but most of the significant shifts detected by STARS were also detected by one or both of the other methods. A significant shift in Cape Point winter winds occurred in 1983, an El Niño year. However, measurement methodology changed during the same period and this is discussed in relation to the shift. A decline in rock-lobster growth rate occurred in the mid 1980s, and significant increases in upwelling variability and mean summer winds were detected in the early-to-mid 1990s - the same period in which rock lobster abundance underwent an eastward shift, declining on the west coast and increasing on the south-west coast. Bank Cormorants underwent respective declines and increases in the mid-to-late 1990s on the west and south-west coasts following the shift in lobsters. Further shifts in mean wind and upwelling were detected in the 2000s. These results

  20. Luminescence blue-shift of CdSe nanowires beyond the quantum confinement regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Yuan; Liao, Zhi-Min; Bie, Ya-Qing; Wu, Han-Chun; Zhou, Yang-Bo; Fu, Xue-Wen; Yu, Da-Peng

    2011-09-01

    Photoluminescence (PL) properties of individual CdSe nanowires with diameters beyond the quantum confinement regime have been studied. A blue-shift in the PL spectra was observed with decreasing nanowire diameter. We attribute the blue-shift to band-filling effect. Carrier density induced by surface vacancy doping and laser excitation is found to be high enough to meet the criterion of the band-filling effect and increases with decreasing nanowire diameter. Temperature dependent PL analysis and characterizations of a single CdSe nanowire based field-effect transistor were also performed.

  1. Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

    2008-05-01

    Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

  2. Motional frequency shifts of trapped ions in the Lamb-Dicke regime

    SciTech Connect

    Lizuain, I.; Muga, J. G.; Eschner, J.

    2007-09-15

    First order Doppler effects are usually ignored in laser driven trapped ions when the recoil frequency is much smaller than the trapping frequency (Lamb-Dicke regime). This means that the central, carrier excitation band is supposed to be unaffected by vibronic transitions in which the vibrational number changes. While this is strictly true in the Lamb-Dicke limit (infinitely tight confinement), the vibronic transitions do play a role in the Lamb-Dicke regime. In this paper we quantify the asymptotic behavior of their effect with respect to the Lamb-Dicke parameter. In particular, we give analytical expressions for the frequency shift, 'pulling' or 'pushing', produced in the carrier absorption band by the vibronic transitions both for Rabi and Ramsey schemes. This shift is shown to be independent of the initial vibrational state.

  3. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

  4. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, Kelton W.; McCarthy, Matthew D.; Sherwood, Owen A.; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ13C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

  5. Slow Wetland Response to Hydrological Change: Press Response or Regime Shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gell, P.; Kattel, G.

    2015-12-01

    Lakes vary in response to minor disturbances and, where stabilising feedbacks exist, tend to return to a particular stable state. If the disturbance is strong enough the stabilising forces may be overcome and the lake passes a threshold whereby it shifts into a new state controlled by a new suite of negative feedbacks. A typical switch in state is thought to occur in shallow lake systems whereby a pulse of sediment or nutrients may drive an increase in phytoplankton impacting the light regime. This impacts negatively on submerged plants which results in greater entrainment of benthic sediments and release of buried nutrients. These strengthen the competitive advantage of phytoplankton and entrench the lake in a new state. Multiple diatom-based sedimentary records of change in wetlands in the lower River Murray, Australia, have revealed assemblage turnover following river regulation and the impoundment of the estuary. Typically, benthic and epiphytic flora have yielded to planktonic and disturbance taxa indicative the loss of aquatic plants and a decline in the light regime consistent with regime shift theory. This evidence is supported by changes in the remains of macrophytes, cladocerans and stable isotopes which reveal the loss of plants and the shift to a pelagic system. However, rather than exhibiting flickering before changing abruptly, these systems have changed gradually over several decades. It could be argued that this represents a slow response to a threshold change. Alternatively, it is merely an ongoing response to the persistent pressure exerted by increased fluxes of sediments and nutrients.

  6. An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Thomas A A; Johnson, Christopher N; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

    2014-03-01

    The mass extinction events during human prehistory are striking examples of ecological regime shifts, the causes of which are still hotly debated. In Australia, human arrival approximately 50 thousand years ago was associated with the continental-scale extinction of numerous marsupial megafauna species and a permanent change in vegetation structure. An alternative stable state persisted until a second regime shift occurred during the late Holocene, when the largest two remaining marsupial carnivores, the thylacine and devil, disappeared from mainland Australia. These extinctions have been widely attributed to the human-assisted invasion of a competing predator, the dingo. In this unusual case, the simultaneous effects of human "intensification" (population growth and technological advances) and climate change (particularly increased ENSO variability) have been largely overlooked. We developed a dynamic model system capable of simulating the complex interactions between the main predators (humans, thylacines, devils, dingoes) and their marsupial prey (macropods), which we coupled with reconstructions of human population growth and climate change for late-Holocene Australia. Because the strength of important interspecific interactions cannot be estimated directly, we used detailed scenario testing and sensitivity analysis to identify robust model outcomes and investigate competing explanations for the Holocene regime shift. This approach identified human intensification as the most probable cause, while also demonstrating the potential importance of synergies with the effects of climate change. Our models indicate that the prehistoric impact of humans on Australian mammals was not limited to the late Pleistocene (i.e., the megafaunal extinctions) but extended into the late Holocene.

  7. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  8. Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, Michael; Yu, Yan; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

    2015-10-01

    The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during 2007-2013. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

  9. Historical Reconstruction of Regime Shifts in Amazon Oxbow Lakes - A Remote Sensing Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belcon, A. U.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Davenport, L.; Terborgh, J. W.

    2010-12-01

    Regime shifts in shallow lakes often have been associated with land-use change, increased nutrient loading and manipulation of trophic structure (Carpenter 2003). These shifts typically have been examined in lakes in temperate and boreal regions and within anthropogenically disturbed basins. By contrast in this study we examine a series of tropical floodplain lakes in a region of virtually no human disturbance to evaluate the effects of hydrological variability on ecosystem structure and dynamics. We reconstruct a timeline of regime shifts in Amazonian oxbow lakes (cochas) along the Manu River, Peru within the Manu National Park. The park contains the entire Manu watershed, including the river and oxbow lakes, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study both tropical lakes within a key region of high biodiversity, as well as regime shifts within a watershed that has not experienced any significant human influence. The Cocha Cashu Biological station was established on the banks of one of the Manu River’s oxbow lakes in the 1970 and has been operated by J. Terborgh since 1973. Observational reports from the station indicate that two types of flood events affect the floodplain lakes: “normal” floods that occur every year in the rainy season (October to May) and “megafloods” - extreme events that occur once a decade or so and sweep over the entire floodplain. Three megafloods occurred in the Manu River’s floodplain in the last 35 years: 1982, 1999 and 2003. The 2003 flood was followed rapidly by a regime shift at Cocha Cashu from phytoplankton, the state in which it had existed for the previous 30 years of observation, to a clear water lake with a luxuriant growth of submerged aquatic vegetation. Three years later in 2006, the lake switched again, this time to a state dominated by floating vegetation (Pistia stratiotes). It was not known at that time whether these changes were basin-wide and occurring at other lakes or whether they had occurred in the

  10. Large Dispersive Shift of Cavity Resonance Induced by a Superconducting Flux Qubit in the Straddling Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inomata, Kunihiro; Yamamoto, Tsuyoshi; Billangeon, Pierre-M.; Lin, Zhirong; Nakamura, Yasunobu; Tsai, Jaw-Shen; Koshino, Kazuki

    2013-03-01

    We demonstrate enhancement of the dispersive frequency shift in a coplanar waveguide resonator induced by a capacitively coupled superconducting flux qubit in the straddling regime. The magnitude of the observed shift, 80 MHz for the qubit-resonator detuning of 5 GHz, is quantitatively explained by the generalized Rabi model which takes into account the contribution of the qubit higher energy levels. By applying the enhanced dispersive shift to the qubit readout, we achieved 90 % contrast of the Rabi oscillations which is mainly limited by the energy relaxation of the qubit. We also discuss the qubit readout using a Josephson parametric amplifier. This work was supported by the MEXT Kakenhi ``Quantum Cybernetics'', the JSPS through its FIRST Program, and the NICT Commissioned Research.

  11. Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

    2015-11-01

    Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California

  12. Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence.

    PubMed

    Capon, Samantha J; Lynch, A Jasmyn J; Bond, Nick; Chessman, Bruce C; Davis, Jenny; Davidson, Nick; Finlayson, Max; Gell, Peter A; Hohnberg, David; Humphrey, Chris; Kingsford, Richard T; Nielsen, Daryl; Thomson, James R; Ward, Keith; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-11-15

    The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these

  13. Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-05-01

    Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing

  14. Regime shifts in the ocean: reconciling observations and theory [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, John H.

    2004-02-01

    The discussions in the Villefranche Workshop covered a wide range of issues. The term regime shift was originally confined to spatial or temporal correspondences between climatic indices and population abundance. The body of evidence for physical-biological coupling has certainly generated a much better appreciation of the natural decadal scale variability in marine systems. It is difficult, however, to deduce from these time series, the mechanisms or trophic pathways that produce the correspondence. Ideally, we would need experimental manipulations such as those used in small lakes, to unravel the causal connections. Since this is impossible in the open sea, we must use comparisons between systems subject to different types of perturbation or stress. We focused at the Workshop on the effects of over-fishing in different marine regimes. The consequences of large scale changes in community structure imposed by excessive fishing give valuable case studies. Coral reefs, rocky shores, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems provide other examples. The possible existence of similar processes across such diverse systems raises corresponding questions about common ecological principles. The adaptive benefits of maximizing resilience (defined as minimizing the largest eigenvalue of the perturbed system) were considered. The corollary of this assumption is that, at the limits of adaptation, there will be switching between communities, providing a potential ground for a broad definition of regime shifts.

  15. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

  16. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

  17. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  18. Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wouters, N.; Dakos, V.; Edwards, M.; Serafim, M. P.; Valayer, P. J.; Cabral, H. N.

    2015-01-01

    One of the longest marine monitoring programs in the North Sea has been the spatiotemporal surveying of subsurface plankton since 1931. During this period a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s culminating in marked changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and in the fisheries of horse mackerel. Here we used the phytoplankton colour index, a visual biomass estimate, from 1948 to 2010 and total diatom abundance from 1958 to 2010 to test whether the well-documented regime shift could have been anticipated by the recently developed Early-Warning Signals for critical transitions (EWS). We estimated EWS, namely autocorrelation and standard deviation, within moving windows along the time series prior to the regime shift. We found that both statistics increased revealing that the North Sea ecosystem was becoming progressively unstable prior to the regime shift. Moreover, this high-resolution time series permitted us to test for robustness, error and significance of the EWS. We did that by dividing the time series into independent blocks and estimating EWS after bootstrapping and randomising the blocks. This alternative approach confirmed the robustness of the EWS with limited associated errors. In particular, we found that the warning was significantly evident years before the onset of the regime shift. We conclude that EWS may provide robust and timely warning for upcoming regime shifts depending on the quality and quantity of recorded data in marine ecosystems.

  19. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

    2014-11-15

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.

  20. Regime shifts in coastal lagoons: Evidence from free-living marine nematodes.

    PubMed

    Netto, Sergio A; Fonseca, Gustavo

    2017-01-01

    We test the validity of using the regime shift theory to account for differences in environmental state of coastal lagoons as a response to variation in connectivity with the sea, using free-living nematodes as a surrogate. The study is based on sediment samples from the inner and outer portions of 15 coastal lagoons (5 open to the sea, 5 intermittently open/closed, and 5 permanently closed lakes) along the southern coast of Brazil. Environmental data suggested that there are two contrasting environmental conditions, with coastal lakes being significantly different from open and intermittent lagoons. Marine nematode assemblages corroborate these two mutually exclusive alternative stable states (open vs. closed systems), but assemblages from the intermittently open/closed lagoons showed a gradual change in species composition between both systems independently of the environmental conditions. The gradient in the structural connectivity among lagoons and the sea, due to their regime shifts, changes the movement of resources and consumers and the internal physico-chemical gradients, directly affecting regional species diversity. Whereas openness to the sea increased similarity in nematode assemblage composition among connected lagoons, isolation increased dissimilarity among closed lagoons. Our results from a large-scale sampling program indicated that as lagoons lose connectivity with the sea, shifting the environmental state, local processes within individual intermittently open/closed lagoons and particularly within coastal lakes become increasingly more important in structuring these communities. The main implication of these findings is that depending on the local stable state we may end up with alternative regional patterns of biodiversity.

  1. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America

    PubMed Central

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-01-01

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910–1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  2. Regime shifts in coastal lagoons: Evidence from free-living marine nematodes

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    We test the validity of using the regime shift theory to account for differences in environmental state of coastal lagoons as a response to variation in connectivity with the sea, using free-living nematodes as a surrogate. The study is based on sediment samples from the inner and outer portions of 15 coastal lagoons (5 open to the sea, 5 intermittently open/closed, and 5 permanently closed lakes) along the southern coast of Brazil. Environmental data suggested that there are two contrasting environmental conditions, with coastal lakes being significantly different from open and intermittent lagoons. Marine nematode assemblages corroborate these two mutually exclusive alternative stable states (open vs. closed systems), but assemblages from the intermittently open/closed lagoons showed a gradual change in species composition between both systems independently of the environmental conditions. The gradient in the structural connectivity among lagoons and the sea, due to their regime shifts, changes the movement of resources and consumers and the internal physico-chemical gradients, directly affecting regional species diversity. Whereas openness to the sea increased similarity in nematode assemblage composition among connected lagoons, isolation increased dissimilarity among closed lagoons. Our results from a large-scale sampling program indicated that as lagoons lose connectivity with the sea, shifting the environmental state, local processes within individual intermittently open/closed lagoons and particularly within coastal lakes become increasingly more important in structuring these communities. The main implication of these findings is that depending on the local stable state we may end up with alternative regional patterns of biodiversity. PMID:28235030

  3. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

  4. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

    PubMed

    Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

    2015-01-27

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

  5. Modeling abrupt cultural regime shifts during the Palaeolithic and Stone Age.

    PubMed

    Aoki, Kenichi

    2014-12-07

    The coupled dynamics of the size and the mean cultural/technological level of a population, with positive feedback between these two variables, is modeled in the Malthusian-Boserupian framework. Bifurcation diagrams, with innovativeness or the cultureless carrying capacity as the parameter, show that abrupt transitions in the mean cultural level are possible. For example, a gradual evolutionary change toward greater innate innovativeness would produce an associated gradual increase in mean cultural level, until a threshold is crossed that triggers an abrupt cultural regime shift. Hence, the model may help explain the apparently sudden and dramatic efflorescences of Palaeolithic/Stone Age culture during the Late Pleistocene, without having to invoke major contemporaneous genetic changes in cognition. The results of statistical studies on the association between population size and toolkit diversity among ethnographic societies are also discussed.

  6. Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

    PubMed

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

    2015-08-24

    In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

  7. Beyond the fragmentation threshold hypothesis: regime shifts in biodiversity across fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed

    Pardini, Renata; Bueno, Adriana de Arruda; Gardner, Toby A; Prado, Paulo Inácio; Metzger, Jean Paul

    2010-10-27

    Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andrén proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions--that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool

  8. Hydrological extremes in the Aksu-Tarim River Basin: Climatology and regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Hui; Borth, Hartmut; Fraedrich, Klaus; Schneidereit, Andrea; Zhu, Xiuhua

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed to classify and investigate hydrological drought and wetness conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The leading time and spatial variability of hydrological drought has been investigated by applying a principal component analysis and Varimax rotation to the SPI on a time scale of 24 months. The results suggest that the western basin is characterized by a clear tendency towards wetter conditions after the middle of the 1980s, which results from an increase in the number of wet extremes and can be considered as a regime shift. Subdividing the period of analysis into two parts (1961-1986 and 1987-2010) this change can be clearly seen in a shift of the probability distribution function of precipitation events. Composite analyses of monthly mean geopotential height fields and wind fields of the ERA-40 data set show that enhanced wetness in the Tarim River Basin after the middle of 1980s is closely related to cyclonic anomalies on the European continent and circulation anomalies over mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. Further correlation analysis between the principal components of SPI and large circulation indices shows that hydrological extremes in the Tarim River Basin correlate with indices related to the polar vortex and subtropical high.

  9. Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

    2011-02-01

    Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

  10. Distinct zooplankton regime shift patterns across ecoregions of the U.S. Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morse, R. E.; Friedland, K. D.; Tommasi, D.; Stock, C.; Nye, J.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated regime shifts in seasonal zooplankton communities of the Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES) and its subcomponent ecoregions over a multi-decadal period (1977-2013). Our cross ecoregion analysis shows that regime shifts in different ecoregions often exhibited very distinct characteristics, emphasizing more granular fluctuations in NES plankton communities relative to previous work. Shifts early in the time series generally reflected an increase in abundance levels. The response of zooplankton abundance within fall communities was more similar among ecoregions than for spring communities. The Gulf of Maine exhibited highly distinct patterns from other ecoregions, with regime shifts identified in the early 1980s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s for spring communities. Regime shifts were identified in the early to mid-1990s for the NES, Georges Bank, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight ecoregions, while the fall communities experienced shifts in the early 1990s and late 1980s for the NES and Georges Bank, but in the late 1990s in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. A constrained correspondence analysis of zooplankton community against local and basin-scale climatological indices suggests that water temperature, stratification, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) were the predominant factors in driving the zooplankton community composition.

  11. The Demise of the Circumboreal Mammoth Steppe as an Ecological Regime Shift: Drivers and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, D. H.; Groves, P.; Grosse, G.; Gaglioti, B.; Kunz, M.

    2011-12-01

    abundance grass and sedges, firm substrates, and unusual mixtures of steppe and tundra vegetation. What caused the demise of the Mammoth Steppe is unclear, however understanding what maintained it over space and time would greatly aid this discussion. The habitat shift began ca. 12,500 14C yr BP and continued for approximately 2000 years. It coincided with a shift from well-drained, mineral soils to poorly drained, organic-rich ones. This regime shift may have been more significant than changes during previous interglacial climatic shifts as most megafaunal species adapted to life in the Mammoth Steppe experienced radical range reductions and, in some cases, global extinction during this period.

  12. Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conners, M. E.; Hollowed, A. B.; Brown, E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey.

  13. Regime shift in sandy beach microbial communities following Deepwater Horizon oil spill remediation efforts.

    PubMed

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  14. Regime Shift in Sandy Beach Microbial Communities following Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Remediation Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A.

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  15. Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

    PubMed

    DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

    2009-03-01

    The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

  16. Evidence for Pacific Climate Regime Shifts as Preserved in a Southeast Alaska Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, S. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Thompson, L. G.

    2012-12-01

    Climate modes emanating from the Pacific sector have far-reaching effects across the globe. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects anomalies in the sea surface temperature and pressure fields over the tropical Pacific, but climate implications from these anomalies extend to monsoon regions of Asia to North America and even Europe. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific sector and influences the long-term behavior of the ENSO cycle as well as the storm track over North America expressed as the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). The impacts of both climate change and drastically reduced Arctic sea ice cover on these teleconnection patterns are poorly understood, and with little knowledge about their past behavior, predicting the changes in these climate modes is extremely difficult. An ice core from the col between Mt. Bona and Mt. Churchill in southeast Alaska provides an opportunity to examine the PDO prior to both the start of instrumental records and the more recent effects of anthropogenic climate change. The Bona-Churchill records of isotopic, dust, and chemical composition are compared to nearby meteorological station and 20th century reanalysis data to evaluate their strength as climate recorders. Climate indices such as the PDO and PNA, along with indices created to describe the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, are incorporated into the analysis to determine if proxy relationships are altered under different climate regimes. Satellite records of sea ice extent within the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, when compared to the Bona-Churchill data, show a distinct change in behavior in the mid-1990s possibly in response to the temporary negative shift in the PDO. This behavioral shift is explored and placed into a broader climate context to determine whether similar events have occurred in the past or if this shift is unique to a rapidly warming Arctic.

  17. Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

    PubMed

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  18. Regime Shift by an Exotic Nitrogen-Fixing Shrub Mediates Plant Facilitation in Primary Succession

    PubMed Central

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  19. North and South Atlantic Bidecadal SL variability: Rossby Waves, AMOC fingerprints and Regime Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vianna, M. L.; Menezes, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    The relationship between the North and South Atlantic bidecadal sea level (SL) oscillations in the twentieth century (1908-2008) is investigated using SODA 2.2.4 reanalysis and 102 monthly mean SL time series from TG stations provided by PSMSL. Bidecadal SL signal extraction was done using our method of subjectively choosing groupings of space-time data into non-overlapping period bands by use of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)/ Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) analysis. A CEOF analysis of the SODA bidecadal band shows dominance of 22-24 year periods. Propagating bidecadal mode expansions were then determined through this analysis, which gives two principal modes. The first mode is dominant from 1915 to 1965 and the second from 1970 onward. The amplitude variabilities obtained suggests the presence of regime shifts, which coincide in time with shifts actually observed in European climate and South African lobster fisheries. The first mode is characterized by states with North and South Atlantic subtropical gyres in phase, while tropical and subpolar regions are in opposite phase relative to them. The second mode is characterized by the subpolar gyre and North subtropical gyre almost in quadrature, with North and South subtropical gyres out of phase. The evolution mechanism of this latter mode is related to east-west density contrasts and westward propagating Rossby waves. These waves show phase speeds dominated by geostrophic self-advection of density anomalies relative to the mean meridional density gradient as known from previous studies, but are shown to be additionally influenced by bottom topography. The oscillations caused by these waves are shown to have phase differences (quadrature in the North Atlantic) with regional indices of bidecadal AMOC oscillations. A number of SL-AMOC fingerprints are also reviewed, and a new eastern equatorial fingerprint is proposed.

  20. Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  1. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    PubMed Central

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  2. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia.

    PubMed

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-04

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  3. The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

  4. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-04-04

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles - hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta - exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - the strongest on record - combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

  5. Shifting Regimes and Changing Interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., Plankton Community from 1962–1994

    PubMed Central

    Francis, Tessa B.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Scheuerell, Mark D.; Katz, Stephen L.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Hampton, Stephanie E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962–1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers. PMID:25338087

  6. Shifting regimes and changing interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., plankton community from 1962-1994.

    PubMed

    Francis, Tessa B; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M; Scheuerell, Mark D; Katz, Stephen L; Holmes, Elizabeth E; Hampton, Stephanie E

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962-1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers.

  7. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  8. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

    PubMed

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-04-14

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime.

  9. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    PubMed Central

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  10. Early Detection of Regime Shifts in Complex Systems from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    The central goal of sustainability is the maintenance of environmental conditions, which are favorable to human existence. A critically important element then is the resilience of the dynamic regime that one wishes to sustain. Resilient systems are able to withstand perturbations...

  11. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    PubMed

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  12. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

  13. Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

  14. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  15. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  16. Analyzing sustainability transitions as a shift between socio-metabolic regimes

    PubMed Central

    Fischer-Kowalski, Marina

    2011-01-01

    This essay seeks to specify the theoretical choices and assumptions involved in studying sociometabolic transitions, such as sustainability transitions, in a way that distinguishes them from mere “changes”. These generalizations draw on experiences with the empirical analysis of historical transitions on various scale levels. This perspective is illustrated by using material and energy flow data to demonstrate global sociometabolic regime transitions during the 20th century. PMID:27066392

  17. Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

  18. Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

    PubMed

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

  19. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    PubMed

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  20. Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Elser, James J.; Elser, Timothy J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this “Green Revolution” has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007–2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  1. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia.

    PubMed

    Cumming, Brian F; Laird, Kathleen R; Bennett, Joseph R; Smol, John P; Salomon, Anne K

    2002-12-10

    Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansionrecession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions.

  2. Regime Shift and Microbial Dynamics in a Sequencing Batch Reactor for Nitrification and Anammox Treatment of Urine ▿†

    PubMed Central

    Bürgmann, Helmut; Jenni, Sarina; Vazquez, Francisco; Udert, Kai M.

    2011-01-01

    The microbial population and physicochemical process parameters of a sequencing batch reactor for nitrogen removal from urine were monitored over a 1.5-year period. Microbial community fingerprinting (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and quantitative PCR on nitrogen cycle functional groups were used to characterize the microbial population. The reactor combined nitrification (ammonium oxidation)/anammox with organoheterotrophic denitrification. The nitrogen elimination rate initially increased by 400%, followed by an extended period of performance degradation. This phase was characterized by accumulation of nitrite and nitrous oxide, reduced anammox activity, and a different but stable microbial community. Outwashing of anammox bacteria or their inhibition by oxygen or nitrite was insufficient to explain reactor behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, e.g., regime-shift analysis of chemical and physical parameters and cluster and ordination analysis of the microbial community, indicated that the system had experienced a rapid transition to a new stable state that led to the observed inferior process rates. The events in the reactor can thus be interpreted to be an ecological regime shift. Constrained ordination indicated that the pH set point controlling cycle duration, temperature, airflow rate, and the release of nitric and nitrous oxides controlled the primarily heterotrophic microbial community. We show that by combining chemical and physical measurements, microbial community analysis and ecological theory allowed extraction of useful information about the causes and dynamics of the observed process instability. PMID:21724875

  3. Intra-annual rainfall regime shifts competitive interactions between coastal sage scrub and invasive grasses.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Leah J; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-02-01

    Changes in rainfall distribution, generally predicted by many climate models, can affect resource dynamics and ecosystem function. While little studied, intra-annual rainfall distribution may have particularly strong effects on competitive interactions. Here, we test whether increased rainfall event size and decreased frequency within a growing season can influence competitive dynamics related to the invasion of exotic annual grasses in California coastal sage scrub (CSS). We hypothesized that larger rainfall events and decreased frequency will increase the competitive ability of native CSS species: a deeper root system will permit greater water use during dry periods between pulses and enhance their resource depletion effect on more shallow-rooted grasses. We planted grass and CSS seedlings in an additive competition design under three rainfall treatments: frequent small events, infrequent large events, and infrequent small events. The first two treatments had the same total rainfall but different frequency, while the second and third treatments had the same frequency but different total rainfall. Rainfall treatment altered the competitive interactions between CSS and grasses. In the first year, the competitive effect of annual grasses on shrub seedlings was strongest under the frequent small rainfall regime where they reduced deep soil moisture and light. In year two, the established shrubs began to exert strong competitive effects on grasses, and these effects were strongest under the infrequent small rainfall regime (low total rain) where they reduced shallow soil moisture and decreased grass stomatal conductance. Results suggest that reductions in both rainfall frequency and total rainfall may be important to competitive interactions, and can alter plant community composition and invasion when species have different rooting depths and different responses to soil moisture.

  4. Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Defriez, Emma J; Sheppard, Lawrence W; Reid, Philip C; Reuman, Daniel C

    2016-06-01

    During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

  5. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    PubMed

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired.

  6. Shift in precipitation regime promotes interspecific hybridization of introduced Coffea species.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Céline; Despinoy, Marc; Hamon, Serge; Hamon, Perla; Salmon, Danyela; Akaffou, Doffou Sélastique; Legnate, Hyacinthe; de Kochko, Alexandre; Mangeas, Morgan; Poncet, Valérie

    2016-05-01

    . However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow.

  7. The change of nature and the nature of change in agricultural landscapes: Hydrologic regime shifts modulate ecological transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Takbiri, Zeinab; Czuba, Jonathan A.; Schwenk, Jon

    2015-08-01

    Hydrology in many agricultural landscapes around the world is changing in unprecedented ways due to the development of extensive surface and subsurface drainage systems that optimize productivity. This plumbing of the landscape alters water pathways, timings, and storage, creating new regimes of hydrologic response and driving a chain of environmental changes in sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling, and river ecology. In this work, we nonparametrically quantify the nature of hydrologic change in the Minnesota River Basin, an intensively managed agricultural landscape, and study how this change might modulate ecological transitions. During the growing season when climate effects are shown to be minimal, daily streamflow hydrographs exhibit sharper rising limbs and stronger dependence on the previous-day precipitation. We also find a changed storage-discharge relationship and show that the artificial landscape connectivity has most drastically affected the rainfall-runoff relationship at intermediate quantiles. Considering the whole year, we show that the combined climate and land use change effects reduce the inherent nonlinearity in the dynamics of daily streamflow, perhaps reflecting a more linearized engineered hydrologic system. Using a simplified dynamic interaction model that couples hydrology to river ecology, we demonstrate how the observed hydrologic change and/or the discharge-driven sediment generation dynamics may have modulated a regime shift in river ecology, namely extirpation of native mussel populations. We posit that such nonparametric analyses and reduced complexity modeling can provide more insight than highly parameterized models and can guide development of vulnerability assessments and integrated watershed management frameworks.

  8. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring

  9. Landscape response to climate change: quantifying a regime shift in transport processes at the onset of re-organization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Densmore, Alexander; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2016-04-01

    Quantifying the ways in which landscapes are reorganized under changing allogenic forcing, including changes in the patterns, rates, and processes of erosion and deposition, is still an open question. Data at the time scales and resolutions required to undertake such a question are typically not available for real landscapes, making physical experiments attractive and powerful means for studying the dynamics of landscape evolution. To this aim, we capitalize on a series of controlled laboratory experiments conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. The eXperimental Landscape Evolution (XLE) facility consists of an erosion box (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.3 m3) wherein two main variables can be controlled: uplift rate and rainfall intensity. Topographic data were collected at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (under constant uplift and precipitation rate), and during the transient state following an increase in the precipitation rate by a factor of 5. In order to quantify the changes observed during the onset of reorganization in the transient state, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS) conditions, even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes within the fluvial regime of the landscape, from supply-limited to transport-limited, during the onset of the TS. Results on the evolution of the spatial patterns of erosional and depositional events when the time advances within the TS are also discussed.

  10. Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

  11. Skin Bioprinting: Impending Reality or Fantasy?

    PubMed

    Ng, Wei Long; Wang, Shuai; Yeong, Wai Yee; Naing, May Win

    2016-09-01

    Bioprinting provides a fully automated and advanced platform that facilitates the simultaneous and highly specific deposition of multiple types of skin cells and biomaterials, a process that is lacking in conventional skin tissue-engineering approaches. Here, we provide a realistic, current overview of skin bioprinting, distinguishing facts from myths. We present an in-depth analysis of both current skin bioprinting works and the cellular and matrix components of native human skin. We also highlight current limitations and achievements, followed by design considerations and a future outlook for skin bioprinting. The potential of bioprinting with converging opportunities in biology, material, and computational design will eventually facilitate the fabrication of improved tissue-engineered (TE) skin constructs, making bioprinting skin an impending reality.

  12. Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

    PubMed Central

    Gårdmark, Anna; Casini, Michele; Huss, Magnus; van Leeuwen, Anieke; Hjelm, Joakim; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M.

    2015-01-01

    Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.

  13. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  14. Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey.

    PubMed

    Bahlai, Christine A; van der Werf, Wopke; vander Werf, Wopke; O'Neal, Matthew; Hemerik, Lia; Landis, Douglas A

    2015-10-01

    The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. We investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive species in the midwestern United States, the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis and the soybean aphid Aphis glycines. We show by model selection that after its 1993 invasion into the American Midwest, the year-to-year population dynamics of H. axyridis were initially governed by a logistic rule supporting gradual rise to a stable carrying capacity. After invasion of the soybean aphid in 2000, food resources at the landscape level became abundant, supporting a higher year-to-year growth rate and a higher but unstable carrying capacity, with two-year cycles in both aphid and lady beetle abundance as a consequence. During 2005-2007, farmers in the Midwest progressively increased their use of insecticides for managing A. glycines, combining prophylactic seed treatment with curative spraying based on thresholds. This human intervention dramatically reduced the soybean aphid as a major food resource for H. axyridis at landscape level and corresponded to a reverse shift towards the original logistic rule for year-to-year dynamics. Thus, we document a short episode of major predator-prey fluctuations in an important agricultural system resulting from two biological invasions that were apparently damped by widespread insecticide use. Recent advances in development of plant resistance to A. glycines in soybeans may mitigate the need for pesticidal control and achieve the same stabilization of pest and predator populations at lower cost and environmental burden.

  15. Long-term trends in carbon, nutrients and stoichiometry in Norwegian coastal waters: Evidence of a regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frigstad, Helene; Andersen, Tom; Hessen, Dag O.; Jeansson, Emil; Skogen, Morten; Naustvoll, Lars-Johan; Miles, Martin W.; Johannessen, Truls; Bellerby, Richard G. J.

    2013-04-01

    A 20-year time series from the Norwegian Coastal Current was explored to examine the effects of advected nutrient supply from the southern North Sea and of large-scale climate variability on hydrography, nutrients and particulate organic matter (seston), focusing on trends in the January to April period in the upper layers (0-30 m). The interannual variability in hydrography, nutrients and seston was correlated with the NAO index, mostly through the inflow of nutrient-rich waters from the southern North Sea. There was a long-term decrease in nutrient concentrations, which according to a water mass analysis followed a reduction in nutrients advected from the German Bight and southern North Sea. The concentrations of carbon and nitrogen in seston, dissolved organic nitrogen and the estimated fraction of non-autotrophic material increased significantly and non-linearly through a sharp transition between 1998 and 2000, and have remained at this level since. Humic coagulation was suggested as the mechanism behind the increase in the non-autotrophic fraction of seston, which could be connected with the reported “darkening” of the coastal Skagerrak and Baltic Sea. Concurrent with the thresholds in suspended material, a decimation of the sugar kelp forest and recruitment failure of key carnivorous fish was reported for the same region, suggesting that a regime shift took place in the early 2000s in the coastal waters of the Norwegian Skagerrak. Our data suggests that the effects of increased freshwater runoff, especially the increased inputs of terrestrial-derived, humic material, could play an important role in the observed, coastal responses.

  16. Diversity components of impending primate extinctions.

    PubMed

    Jernvall, J; Wright, P C

    1998-09-15

    Many extant species are at risk to go extinct. This impending loss of species is likely to cause changes in future ecosystem functions. Ecological components of diversity, such as dietary or habitat specializations, can be used to estimate the impact of extinctions on ecosystem functions. As an approach to estimate the impact of future extinctions, we tested interdependency between ecological and taxonomic change based on current predictions of extinction rates in primates. We analyzed the ecological characteristics of extant primate faunas having species in various categories of endangerment of extinction and forecasted the future primate faunas as if they were paleontological faunas. Predicting future faunas combines the wealth of ecological information on living primates with large, fossil record-like changes in diversity. Predicted extinction patterns of living primates in Africa, Asia, Madagascar, and South America show that changes in ecology differ among the regions in ways that are not reducible to taxonomic measures. The ecological effects of primate extinctions are initially least severe in South America and larger in Asia and Africa. Disproportionately larger ecological changes are projected for Madagascar. The use of taxonomy as a proxy for ecology can mislead when estimating competence of future primate ecosystems.

  17. The late 1980s regime shift in the ecosystem of Tsushima warm current in the Japan/East Sea: Evidence from historical data and possible mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Watanabe, Tatsuro; Iguchi, Naoki

    2008-05-01

    A climatic regime shift, an abrupt change from cooling to warming in the Japan/East Sea (JES), particularly in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region, occurred in the late 1980s. The ecosystem of the JES responded strongly to the changing thermal regime. Many, but not all biological components of the ecosystem, spanning from plankton to predatory fishes, and including both warm-water pelagic and cold-water demersal species responded to this late 1980s climatic regime shift in the JES. Diatom abundance (cell number) in spring from a monitoring line located in the central part of JES showed decadal variations with a step change from positive to negative anomalies in 1991. Zooplankton biomass in spring and autumn was high in the 1970s, declined during the 1980s, and returned to higher, but quite variable levels during the 1990s. Japanese sardine catch increased after 1974 to its peak level in 1989 and then declined dramatically to 1974 levels by 1997 with step changes in 1979 and 1994. Conversely, catches of other small pelagic species such as Japanese anchovy and common squid, and several higher-trophic fishes, such as yellowtail and tunas increased markedly in the 1990s compared to the early-mid 1980s. Step changes were detected in these pelagic species during 1989-1992. Catch of demersal species (crab, pink shrimp, Pacific cod and walleye pollock) were high during most of the 1970-1980s, but declined at various times in the late 1980s to generally low catches in the 1990s. Detailed analysis of the demersal fish assemblage composition, abundance and distribution indicated a shift in the late 1980s with several years lag in the time of change. Cold-water species (e.g., walleye pollock, Pacific cod) decreased in abundance and the regions in which their abundances remained high became greatly reduced in extent. Conversely, warm-water species (e.g., pointhead flounder, shotted halibut) increased in abundance and/or extended their spatial range (as indicated by trawl

  18. Three-dimensional assemblies built up by quantum dots in size-quantization regime: Band gap shifts due to size-distribution of cadmium selenide nanoparticles

    SciTech Connect

    Pejova, Biljana

    2013-11-15

    In the present study, it is predicted that the band gap energy of a three-dimensional quantum dot assembly exhibits a red shift when the dispersion of the crystal size distribution is enlarged, even at a fixed average value thereof. The effect is manifested when the size quantization regime in individual quantum dots constituting the assembly has been entered. Under the same conditions, the sub-band gap absorption tails are characterized with large Urbach energies, which could be one or two orders of magnitude larger than the value characteristic for the non-quantized case. - Graphical abstract: Band gap shifts due to size-distribution of nanoparticles in 3D assemblies built up by quantum dots in size-quantization regime. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Optical absorption of 3D QD assemblies in size-quantization regime is modeled. • Band gap energy of the QD solid depends on the size-distribution of the nanoparticles. • QD solid samples with same 〈R〉 exhibit band gap shift depending on size distribution. • QD size distribution leads to large Urbach energies.

  19. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  20. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-01-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds (“WAP 12”, “WAP 20”, and “WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of 210Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring. PMID:25750718

  1. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-02-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

  2. The present is the key to the past: linking regime shifts in kelp beds to the distribution of deep-living sea urchins.

    PubMed

    Filbee-Dexter, Karen; Scheibling, Robert E

    2017-01-01

    Understanding processes that drive sudden shifts in ecosystem structure and function has become an important research focus for coastal management. In kelp bed ecosystems, regime shifts occur when high densities of sea urchins destructively graze kelp and create coralline algal barrens. While the importance of predation and disease in mediating shifts between kelp beds and barrens on shallow rocky reefs has been well documented, little is known about the role of deep-living urchins in these alternative stable-state dynamics. In this study, we test the hypothesis that deep-living urchins along the central Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia move onshore and trigger shifts from kelp beds to barrens on shallow rocky reefs. We documented urchin distribution and abundance using tow-camera surveys down to 140 m depth and spanning 140 km of coast and created a predictive species-distribution model using these observations and spatial data on environmental factors that likely delineate suitable habitat for urchins. We used a random forest model to generate our predictions, which correctly classified 91% of observations into a positive or negative occurrence of urchins. Sea urchins predominantly occurred within 1.5 km of shore, in depressions and flat habitats between 40 and 85 m depth. We found that shallow regions where destructive grazing fronts have been documented over the past four decades were closer to deep-living sea urchin habitats compared to regions that remained in a kelp bed state during the same period. This supports our prediction that deep-living urchins play an important role in driving shallow regime shift dynamics, and indicates that their distribution can help identify areas of coast that are most vulnerable to a collapse to barrens.

  3. From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

    PubMed

    Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.

  4. The altered ecology of Lake Christina: a record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake.

    PubMed

    Theissen, Kevin M; Hobbs, William O; Hobbs, Joy M Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D; Domine, Leah M; Cotner, James B; Sugita, Shinya

    2012-09-01

    We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3-4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ(13)C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ(15)N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ(13)C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts.

  5. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    SciTech Connect

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-08-15

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  6. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-10-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  7. Long-term changes in hypoxia and soluble reactive phosphorus in the hypolimnion of a large temperate lake: consequences of a climate regime shift.

    PubMed

    North, Ryan P; North, Rebecca L; Livingstone, David M; Köster, Oliver; Kipfer, Rolf

    2014-03-01

    The (Lower) Lake of Zurich provides an ideal system for studying the long-term impact of environmental change on deep-water hypoxia because of its sensitivity to climatic forcing, its history of eutrophication and subsequent oligotrophication, and the quality and length of its data set. Based on 39 years (1972-2010) of measured profiles of temperature, oxygen concentration and phosphorus (P) concentration, the potentially confounding effects of oligotrophication and climatic forcing on the occurrence and extent of deep-water hypoxia in the lake were investigated. The time-series of Nürnberg's hypoxic factor (HF) for the lake can be divided into three distinct segments: (i) a segment of consistently low HF from 1972 to the late-1980s climate regime shift (CRS); (ii) a transitional segment between the late-1980s CRS and approximately 2000 within which the HF was highly variable; and (iii) a segment of consistently high HF thereafter. The increase in hypoxia during the study period was not a consequence of a change in trophic status, as the lake underwent oligotrophication as a result of reduced external P loading during this time. Instead, wavelet analysis suggests that changes in the lake's mixing regime, initiated by the late-1980s CRS, ultimately led to a delayed but abrupt decrease in the deep-water oxygen concentration, resulting in a general expansion of the hypoxic zone in autumn. Even after detrending to remove long-term effects, the concentration of soluble reactive P in the bottom water of the lake was highly correlated with various measures of hypoxia, providing quantitative evidence supporting the probable effect of hypoxia on internal P loading. Such climate-induced, ecosystem-scale changes, which may result in undesirable effects such as a decline in water quality and a reduction in coldwater fish habitats, provide further evidence for the vulnerability of large temperate lakes to predicted increases in global air temperature.

  8. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    PubMed

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  9. Regime shifts in the Arctic North Atlantic during the Neoglacial revealed by seabirds and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, William J.; Hormes, Anne; Bakke, Jostein; Nicolaisen, Line

    2016-04-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. We report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver isotopically enriched nitrogen to nesting areas. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, using δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals with more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

  10. Shifts in the hydrodynamic regime determine patterns of regional changes of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle in future climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilyina, T.; Heinze, M.; Li, H.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Six, K. D.

    2015-12-01

    In future projections the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle is a hotspot for changes driven by rising CO2 emissions. Concomitantly, the Arctic Ocean hydrodynamic regime undergoes substantial shifts so the net effect on the carbon cycle is not intuitively clear. In the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5 extended until 2300 in projections of the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model, the averaged Arctic Ocean surface temperature rises by 4°C in 2100 and by 10°C in 2300, respectively. The Arctic becomes free of summer sea ice in the second half of the 21st century, whereas winter sea ice disappears at the beginning of the 23rd century. Owing to increased sea ice melting and runoff, fresh water content increases gradually until the end of the 22nd century and then drops abruptly as a result of an intensification of the saline Atlantic water inflow. Accumulation of Atlantic water collapses the halocline in the central basin of the Arctic Ocean by the first half of the 23rd century. Ongoing warming enhances thermal stratification and the mixed layer shoales. In contrast, halocline erosion and the cooling of the ice free water act in concert to favor formation of convection cells in the central basin. Freshening in the Canada basin and transport of salty water into the Eurasian basin generate a dipole structure in the anomalies of surface salinity. Driven by the rising CO2, the averaged dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is growing. Changes in the averaged total alkalinity (TA) go along with the fresh water content evolution and decreasing carbonate ion concentration so that TA drops below preindustrial values. Yet, along with salinity, the Eurasian basin receives waters with higher DIC and TA from the Atlantic. As a result, the distributions of TA and DIC anomalies resemble the dipole pattern projected for salinity. We show that while future changes in the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle proceed at rates determined by atmospheric CO2 levels, the regional patterns are driven by shifts in the

  11. Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenkoff, Claude; Castonguay, Martin; Chabot, Denis; Hammill, Mike O.; Bourdages, Hugo; Morissette, Lyne

    2007-07-01

    Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.

  12. Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

    2007-02-01

    Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime-shifts

  13. Intercomparison of the temperature contrast between the arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Powell, Alfred M.; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Li

    2017-02-01

    Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis temperature dataset in the period of 1948-2014, the temperature contrast between the Arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift is compared. An index measuring the temperature contrast is defined as the difference between the Arctic zone (70° N-90° N) and the equatorial region (10° S-10° N). The variations of the temperature contrast can be mainly explained by the local sea ice variations through sea ice-albedo-temperature feedback before 1976/1977 and the energy transportation to the Arctic together with the local sea ice after 1976/1977. The impacts of the Arctic minus equator (AmE) temperature contrast on the high-level westerly jet, and the polar easterlies show a significant difference during the two periods. A strong temperature anomaly associated with the temperature contrast in the two periods is found in the high latitude, but different patterns are observed at the high and low levels. The correlated water vapor appeared in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent before 1976/1977 and moved to northeastern Canada and eastern North America after 1976/1977.

  14. Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

    2014-12-01

    The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total

  15. Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

    2016-04-01

    Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

  16. Fine sediment transport by tidal asymmetry in the high-concentrated Ems River: indications for a regime shift in response to channel deepening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterwerp, Johan C.

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an analysis of the observed up-river transport of fine sediments in the Ems River, Germany/Netherlands, using a 1DV POINT MODEL, accounting for turbulence-induced flocculation and sediment-induced buoyancy destruction. From this analysis, it is inferred that the net up-river transport is mainly due to an asymmetry in vertical mixing, often referred to as internal tidal asymmetry. It is argued that the large stratification observed during ebb should be attributed to a profound interaction between turbulence-induced flocculation and sediment-induced buoyancy destruction, as a result of which the river became an efficient trap for fine suspended sediment. Moreover, an asymmetry in flocculation processes was found, such that during flood relative large flocs are transported at relative large flow velocity high in the water column, whereas during ebb, the larger flocs are transported at smaller velocities close to the bed—this asymmetry contributes to the large trapping mentioned above. The internal tidal asymmetry and asymmetry in flocculation processes are both driven by the pronounced asymmetry in flow velocities, with flood velocities almost twice the ebb values. It is further argued that this efficient trapping is the result of a continuous deepening of the river, and occurs when concentrations in the river become typically a few hundred mg/l; this was the case during the 1990 survey analyzed in this paper. We also speculate that a second regime shift did occur in the river when fluid mud layers become so thick that net transport rates are directly related to the asymmetry in flow velocity itself, probably still in conjunction with internal asymmetry as well. This would yield an efficient mechanism to transport large amounts of fine sediment far up-river, as currently observed.

  17. Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

  18. Percutaneous Stabilization of Impending Pathological Fracture of the Proximal Femur

    SciTech Connect

    Deschamps, Frederic Farouil, Geoffroy Hakime, Antoine Teriitehau, Christophe Barah, Ali Baere, Thierry de

    2012-12-15

    Objective: Percutaneous osteosynthesis plus cementoplasty (POPC) is a minimally invasive technique that has never been reported before and that we have prospectively evaluated for patients with impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur. Methods: We performed POPC in 12 patients (3 males, 9 females) with metastasis of the proximal femur with a high risk of fracture (Mirels' score {>=}8) between February 2010 and July 2011. Patients were not candidates for standard surgical stabilization. We analyzed the feasibility, duration, and complication of the procedure, the risk of fracture, the decrease in pain (Visual Analog Scale, VAS), and length of stay in hospital. Data were prospectively collected in all patients. Results: The mean Mirels' score was 9.8 {+-} 1.2 (range, 8-11). The technical success was 100%. POPC was performed under general anesthesia (n = 6) or conscious sedation (n = 6). The mean duration was 110 {+-} 43 (range, 60-180) minutes. All patients stood up and walked the second day after the procedure. The average length of stay in the hospital was 4 {+-} 1.6 (range, 2-7) days. We experienced two hematomas in two patients and no thromboembolic complication. For symptomatic patients (n = 8), VAS decreased from 6.5/10 (range, 2-9) before treatment to 1/10 (range, 0-3) 1 month after. No fracture occurred after a median follow-up of 145 (range, 12-608) days. Conclusions: POPC for impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur seems to be a promising alternative for cancer patients who are not candidates for surgical stabilization. Further studies are required to confirm this preliminary experience.

  19. Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, Ed; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1 smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

  20. Impending aortic aneurysm rupture – a case report and review of the warning signs

    PubMed Central

    Gish, David S.; Baer, J. Austin; Crabtree, Gordon S.; Shaikh, Bilal; Fareedy, Shoaib B.

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) may present with subtle clinical findings. Recognition of the imaging features of an impending rupture is key for timely diagnosis. This report reviews the classic computed tomography findings of impending AAA rupture and presents a recent case which illustrates the key features. PMID:27802850

  1. Impending malunions of the hand. Treatment of subacute, malaligned fractures.

    PubMed

    Lester, B; Mallik, A

    1996-06-01

    Malunions of the hand present a challenging problem to the orthopaedic surgeon. Angular and rotational deformities, and shortening and articular incongruity, can lead to significant functional impairment or dysesthetic appearance. The prevention of malunion should remain a primary goal. When displaced fractures of the metacarpals or phalanges present within the first or second weeks, properly performed closed or open reduction with percutaneous pinning or internal fixation are excellent options with predictable results. Malaligned fractures that present later frequently cannot be readily reduced. Once fully united, treatment options have included corrective osteotomy if function is significantly impaired or if appearance is objectionable; for patients who are not suitable for surgery for medical or other reasons, or for whom appearance is acceptable, intensive occupational therapy to maximize function may yield sufficiently serviceable clinical results. During the past several years, the senior author (BL) has chosen to be more proactive in the prevention of malunions of the hand. In the authors' experience, results of aggressive surgical treatment of subacute, malaligned fractures in selected patients have produced results comparable with or superior to those reported for later reconstructive procedures. With the proliferation of managed care, there has been an increasing frequency of delayed referral patterns for fracture treatment by hand specialists. Definitive treatment of these "impending malunions" is preferable to passive treatment delay and secondary reconstructive procedures, offering both earlier correction of alignment and earlier opportunity for return of function.

  2. Going Lean: Impending Money Woes Force Tough Choices, Forecast Fundamental Shift in Community College Funding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joch, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The numbers were already bad, and they keep getting worse, for the Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD). Given the weak economy, administrators planned for a 5 percent reduction in state funding in the 2010-11 academic year. The actual reduction ballooned to more than 7.5 percent, an additional $13 million that DCCCD would be forced to…

  3. Tectonic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty in impending corneal perforation using cryopreserved cornea.

    PubMed

    Jang, Ji Hye; Chang, Sung Dong

    2011-04-01

    We report a case of tectonic corneal transplantation for impending corneal perforation to preserve anatomic integrity using cryopreserved donor tissue. An 82-year-old woman exhibiting impending corneal perforation suffered from moderate ocular pain in the left eye for one week. After abnormal tissues around the impending perforation area were carefully peeled away using a Crescent blade and Vannas scissors, the patient received tectonic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty using a cryopreserved cornea stored in Optisol GS® solution at -70℃ for four weeks. At six months after surgery, the cornea remained transparent and restored the normal corneal thickness. There were no complications such as corneal haze or scars, graft rejection, recurrent corneal ulcer, and postoperative rise of intraocular pressure. Cryopreserved donor lamellar tissue is an effective substitute in emergency tectonic lamellar keratoplasty, such as impending corneal perforation and severe necrotic corneal keratitis.

  4. Vegetation maps at the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act (1934): A baseline to evaluate rangeland change after a regime shift

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Data from New Mexico range survey maps created shortly after the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934 have been preserved and are being used to document changes in vegetation. The range survey data were collected at the time of a critical shift in rangeland policy and practice in federal lands...

  5. Synchronous climate-driven regime shifts at the onset of the Holocene inferred from diatom records in lakes of the Greater Yellowstone region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Y.; Stone, J.; Fritz, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Diatom records covering the late-glacial and early Holocene periods were recovered from three lakes in different areas of Yellowstone National Park to investigate the impacts of large-scale climatic change on aquatic ecosystem evolution following deglaciation. All lakes show synchronous diatom community shifts from the dominance of tychoplanktic Fragilaria species to benthic species in the interval of 11,300-11500 cal yr BP, indicating a regional decrease in effective moisture. The synchroneity of changes in diatom community structure suggests the influence of overlying large-scale climatic change on lacustrine ecosystems. A major shift in the same interval also is evident in other proxy records, such as pollen and charcoal, throughout the Yellowstone region at the late-glacial/early-Holocene transition. This suggests that the summer insolation maximum induced a widespread and rapid reorganization of ecosystem structure and function.

  6. Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

    2016-11-29

    Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

  7. Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator.

    PubMed

    Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Dyck, Markus G; Ferguson, Steven H; Higdon, Jeff W

    2016-08-01

    Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010-2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large-bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice-free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on-ice feeding opportunities for polar bears.

  8. How a Faculty Made Sense of the Impending Succession of Its Principal. Revised.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fauske, Janice R.; Ogawa, Rodney T.

    This study sought to describe how an elementary school faculty made sense of the impending succession of its principal, and to extend Gephart's effort to develop a grounded theory of leader succession by examining an unforced succession in an organization whose members exerted little if any influence on the selection process. On the basis of…

  9. A Study of Community College Leadership Practices in Response to the Impending Leadership Crisis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Jane

    2012-01-01

    The literature attests to a leadership crisis that is predicted to impact leadership pipelines in just about every industry imaginable, including community colleges. This impending crisis is thought to be a result of baby boomer retirements plus the lack of next generation workers equipped with the skills to replace them. Community colleges are…

  10. Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Watanabe, Tatsuro

    2006-02-01

    climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.

  11. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

    PubMed

    Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

    2003-09-22

    It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

  12. Anomalous pre-seismic transmission of VHF-band radio waves resulting from large earthquakes, and its statistical relationship to magnitude of impending earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriya, T.; Mogi, T.; Takada, M.

    2010-02-01

    To confirm the relationship between anomalous transmission of VHF-band radio waves and impending earthquakes, we designed a new data-collection system and have documented the anomalous VHF-band radio-wave propagation beyond the line of sight prior to earthquakes since 2002 December in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Anomalous VHF-band radio waves were recorded before two large earthquakes, the Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mj = 8.0, Mj: magnitude defined by the Japan Meteorological Agency) on 2003 September 26 and the southern Rumoi sub-prefecture earthquake (Mj = 6.1) on 2004 December 14. Radio waves transmitted from a given FM radio station are considered to be scattered, such that they could be received by an observation station beyond the line of sight. A linear relationship was established between the logarithm of the total duration time of anomalous transmissions (Te) and the magnitude (M) or maximum seismic intensity (I) of the impending earthquake, for M4-M5 class earthquakes that occurred at depths of 48-54 km beneath the Hidaka Mountains in Hokkaido in 2004 June and 2005 August. Similar linear relationships are also valid for earthquakes that occurred at different depths. The relationship was shifted to longer Te for shallower earthquakes and to shorter Te for deeper ones. Numerous parameters seem to affect Te, including hypocenter depths and surface conditions of epicentral area (i.e. sea or land). This relationship is important because it means that pre-seismic anomalous transmission of VHF-band waves may be useful in predicting the size of an impending earthquake.

  13. Asynchronous responses of fish assemblages to climate-driven ocean regime shifts between the upper and deep layer in the Ulleung basin of the East Sea from 1986 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Sukgeun

    2014-03-01

    Past studies suggested that a basin-wide regime shift occurred in 1988-1989, impacting marine ecosystem and fish assemblages in the western North Pacific. However, the detailed mechanisms involved in this phenomenon are still yet unclear. In the Ulleung basin of the East Sea, filefish, anchovy and sardine dominated the commercial fish catches in 1986-1992, but thereafter common squid comprised > 60% of the total catch in 1993-2010. To illuminate the mechanisms causing this dramatic shift in dominant fisheries species, I related changes in depth-specific oceanographic conditions from 0 to 500 m to inter-annual changes in the fish assemblage structure from 1986 to 2010. In the upper layer of 50-100 m depths, water temperature suddenly increased in 1987-1989, and consequently warm-water epi-pelagic species (anchovy, chub mackerel, and common squid) became dominant, while sardine, relatively cold-water epi-pelagic species, nearly disappeared. An annual index of the volume transport by the Korea Strait Bottom Cold Water, originating from the deep water of the Ulleung Basin, displayed a sudden intensification in 1992-1993, accompanied by decreased water temperature and increased water density in the deep water and replacement of dominant bentho-pelagic species from filefish, warm-water species, to herring and cod, cold-water species. The results suggest that climate-driven oceanic changes and the subsequent ecological impacts can occur asynchronously, often with time lags of several years, between the upper and the deep layer, and between epi-pelagic and deepwater fish assemblages.

  14. Differentiating full thickness macular holes from impending macular holes and macular pseudoholes

    PubMed Central

    Tsujikawa, M.; Ohji, M.; Fujikado, T.; Saito, Y.; Motokura, M.; Ishimoto, I.; Tano, Y.

    1997-01-01

    AIMS—The reliability of scanning laser ophthalmoscope (SLO) microperimetry in differentiating full thickness macular holes from macular pseudoholes and impending macular holes was evaluated.
METHODS—106 eyes with the clinical diagnosis of full thickness macular holes, macular pseudoholes, and impending (stage 1) macular holes were examined for the presence of deep or relative scotoma using SLO microperimetry. The relation between these scotomas and the clinical diagnosis was studied.
RESULTS—Deep and relative scotomas were detected in all 57 eyes with clinically defined full thickness macular holes. In contrast, among 49 eyes diagnosed with macular pseudoholes or impending macular holes, no deep and only one relative scotoma was observed. The sensitivity of the presence of a deep scotoma as an indicator of the clinical diagnosis of a full thickness macular hole was 100% (57 of 57), and the specificity was 100% (49 of 49). The sensitivity of the presence of a relative scotoma was 100% (57 of 57) and the specificity was 98.0% (48 of 49).
CONCLUSION—With SLO microperimetry, full thickness macular holes can be precisely and objectively distinguished from other conditions that mimic macular holes.

 PMID:9059244

  15. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  16. Salvage of impending replant failure by temporary ectopic replantation: a case report.

    PubMed

    Cavadas, Pedro C; Landin, Luis; Navarro-Monzones, Angel; Soler-Nomdedeu, Santiago

    2006-03-01

    Temporary ectopic replantation of amputated parts has been reported previously as an alternative to orthotopic replantation in difficult cases. We report a case in which the left arm initially was replanted orthotopically with subsequent development of extensive infection. The impending vascular failure of the replanted arm was salvaged by reamputation and temporary ectopic transfer of the arm to the groin region. Nine days later the arm was transferred back to the clean humeral stump. The functional result was similar to that of a standard transhumeral replantation, with 30 degrees to 120 degrees of active range of elbow motion, basic grip pattern, and S3 sensibility.

  17. Mechanical perturbations applied during impending movement evoke startle-like responses

    PubMed Central

    Ravichandran, Vengateswaran J.; Shemmell, Jonathan B.; Perreault, Eric J.

    2010-01-01

    Stretch reflexes have been considered one of the simplest circuits in the human nervous system. Yet, their role is controversial given that they assist or resist an imposed perturbation depending on the task instruction. Evidence shows that a loud acoustic stimulus applied prior to an impending movement elicits a movement-direction dependent muscle activity. In our study, we found that a perturbation can also trigger this early onset of movement, if applied during movement preparation. These responses were also perturbation direction dependent. This suggests an interaction of between the limb-stabilizing stretch reflexes and the voluntary activity. PMID:19963543

  18. Impending anterior ischemic optic neuropathy with elements of retinal vein occlusion in a patient on interferon for polycythemia vera.

    PubMed

    Rue, Kelly S; Hirsch, Louis K; Sadun, Alfredo A

    2012-01-01

    We describe the course and likely pathophysiology of impending anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (AION) and retinal vein occlusion in a 56-year-old man with polycythemia vera managed with interferon alpha for 2 years. Our patient presented with decreased vision, scintillating scotomata, and floaters. Fundus examination findings and results of a fluorescein angiogram led to the diagnosis of impending AION and retinal vein occlusion. Considering that both polycythemia vera and interferon have possible influences on vascular occlusion and optic disc edema, we stopped interferon treatment and immediately attempted to treat the polycythemia vera empirically with pentoxifylline and any interferon-associated inflammation with prednisone. Our patient experienced complete resolution of fundus abnormalities and return of normal vision within 3 weeks, which may be attributed to our successful treatment of both etiologies. Thus, further study is warranted to elucidate the treatment of both polycythemia vera and interferon-induced impending AION.

  19. Impending status epilepticus and anxiety in a pregnant woman treated with levetiracetam.

    PubMed

    Novy, Jan; Hubschmid, Monica; Michel, Patrik; Rossetti, Andrea O

    2008-10-01

    Levetiracetam (LEV) has been considered to undergo no significant change in bioavailability during pregnancy; however, it was recently demonstrated to display modifications leading to a drop in its serum level. We describe a patient who displayed impending status epilepticus following a fall in her LEV level during the first trimester. The oral LEV dosage was increased, and phenytoin and benzodiazepines were transiently prescribed. She experienced severe anxiety and an unbearable fear over the deleterious consequences for her baby despite repeated, reassuring explanations. Her anxiety was so strong that she aborted electively shortly after leaving the hospital. This observation emphasizes the need for LEV level monitoring during pregnancy to prevent unexpected seizure relapses. The rapid increase in levetiracetam dosage in parallel with the loss of seizure control is suspected of facilitating the induction of significant psychiatric changes.

  20. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    PubMed

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  1. Case Report: Frontalis sign for early bedside consideration of impending uncal herniation

    PubMed Central

    Munakomi, Sunil; Mohan Kumar, Bijoy

    2016-01-01

    It is prudent to have early diagnosis and timely management of uncal herniation for better management of neurosurgical patients. There are several clinical and radiological armamentariums that aid in early recognition of the condition. Through this case report, we try to highlight a simple bedside clinical sign that can be a valuable adjunct in early recognition of the impending uncal herniation especially in scenarios wherein it is difficult to assess the pupillary size and reactivity correctly. The improvement in the sign also confirms the resolution of the mass effect in the postoperative period. This is especially helpful for doctors working in the periphery or in resource restrained areas, for a timely referral of the patient to tertiary centre. PMID:27635220

  2. Loss of Weight in Obese Older Adults: A Biomarker of Impending Expansion of Multimorbidity?

    PubMed Central

    Fabbri, Elisa; Tanaka, Toshiko; An, Yang; Zoli, Marco; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack M.; Simonsick, Eleanor M.; Boyd, Cynthia M.; Studenski, Stephanie A.; Harris, Tamara B.; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To determine whether weight loss in older adults may be a marker of impending burden of multimorbidity regardless of initial weight, testing the hypotheses that obesity but not overweight in elderly adults is associated with greater number of diseases than normal weight and that obese older adults who lose weight over time have the greatest burden of multimorbidity. DESIGN Longitudinal cohort study (Invecchiare in Chianti Study). SETTING Community. PARTICIPANTS Individuals aged 60 and older at baseline followed for an average of 4 years (N = 1,025). MEASUREMENTS Multimorbidity was measured as number of diagnosed diseases. Baseline body mass index (BMI) was categorized as normal weight (<25.0 kg/m2), overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30.0 kg/m2). Loss of weight was defined as decrease over time in BMI of at least 0.15 kg/m2 per year. Age, sex, and education were covariates. RESULTS Baseline obesity was cross-sectionally associated with high multimorbidity and greater longitudinal increase of multimorbidity than normal weight (P = .005) and overweight (P < .001). Moreover, obese participants who lost weight over follow-up had a significantly greater increase in multimorbidity than other participants, including obese participants who maintained or gained weight over time (P = .005). In nonobese participants, changes in weight had no effect on changes in multimorbidity over time. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that one specific disease did not drive the association and that competing mortality did not bias the association. CONCLUSION Loss of weight in obese older persons is a strong biomarker of impending expansion of multimorbidity. Older obese individuals who lose weight should receive thoughtful medical attention. PMID:26311068

  3. Treatment of Hyaluronic Acid Filler-Induced Impending Necrosis With Hyaluronidase: Consensus Recommendations.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Joel L; Biesman, Brian S; Dayan, Steven H; DeLorenzi, Claudio; Lambros, Val S; Nestor, Mark S; Sadick, Neil; Sykes, Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Injection-induced necrosis is a rare but dreaded consequence of soft tissue augmentation with filler agents. It usually occurs as a result of injection of filler directly into an artery, but can also result from compression or injury. We provide recommendations on the use of hyaluronidase when vascular compromise is suspected. Consensus recommendations were developed by thorough discussion and debate amongst the authors at a roundtable meeting on Wednesday June 18, 2014 in Las Vegas, NV as well as significant ongoing written and verbal communications amongst the authors in the months prior to journal submission. All authors are experienced tertiary care providers. A prompt diagnosis and immediate treatment with high doses of hyaluronidase (at least 200 U) are critically important. It is not felt necessary to do a skin test in cases of impending necrosis. Some experts recommend dilution with saline to increase dispersion or lidocaine to aid vasodilation. Additional hyaluronidase should be injected if improvement is not seen within 60 minutes. A warm compress also aids vasodilation, and massage has been shown to help. Some experts advocate the use of nitroglycerin paste, although this area is controversial. Introducing an oral aspirin regimen should help prevent further clot formation due to vascular compromise. In our experience, patients who are diagnosed promptly and treated within 24 hours will usually have the best outcomes.

  4. Subliminal Impending Collision Increases Perceived Object Size and Enhances Pupillary Light Reflex

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lihong; Yuan, Xiangyong; Xu, Qian; Wang, Ying; Jiang, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Fast detection of ambient danger is crucial for the survival of biological entities. Previous studies have shown that threatening information can bias human visual perception and enhance physiological reactions. It remains to be delineated whether the modulation of threat on human perceptual and physiological responses can take place below awareness. To probe this issue, we adopted visual looming stimuli and created two levels of threat by varying their motion trajectories to the observers, such that the stimuli could move in a path that either collided with the observers’ heads or just nearly missed. We found that when the observers could not explicitly discriminate any difference between the collision and the near-miss stimuli, the visual stimuli on the collision course appeared larger and evoked greater pupil constrictions than those on the near-miss course. Furthermore, the magnitude of size overestimation was comparable to when the impending collision was consciously perceived. Our findings suggest that threatening information can bias human visual perception and strengthen pupil constrictions independent of conscious representation of the threat, and imply the existence of the subcortical visual pathway dedicated to automatically processing threat-related signals in humans. PMID:27994567

  5. Successful surgical treatment of impending rupture of thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm in an elderly patient with severe pulmonary emphysema.

    PubMed

    Uezu, T; Koja, K; Kuniyoshi, Y; Akasaki, M; Miyagi, K; Shimoji, M

    1999-08-01

    In a case of successful surgery for impending thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysmic rupture, an 83-year-old man with severe pulmonary emphysema was transferred to our hospital diagnosed with impending aneurysmic rupture. The aneurysm had been pointed out 2.5 years ago but surgical repair was not undertaken due to the patient's severe pulmonary emphysema. After admission, computed tomography showed an enlarging saccular thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm. Emergency surgery was conducted because of severe pain below the left costal margin. We resected the wall of the saccular aortic aneurysm and reconstructed the aorta with an on-lay patch under femoro-femoral bypass and selective visceral organ perfusion. Tracheostomy provided respiratory care on the day following surgery. The patient was weaned from respiratory support 6 days after surgery. Postoperative aortography showed that the reconstructed thoracoabdominal aorta functioned satisfactorily. The patient remains in good health 18 months after surgery.

  6. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    SciTech Connect

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior; Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  7. Eluding catastrophic shifts.

    PubMed

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A; Levin, Simon A; Muñoz, Miguel A

    2015-04-14

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences.

  8. Eluding catastrophic shifts

    PubMed Central

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A.; Levin, Simon A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences. PMID:25825772

  9. Neutrophil Functions and Cytokines Expression Profile in Buffaloes with Impending Postpartum Reproductive Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Patra, Manas Kumar; Kumar, Harendra; Nandi, Sukdeb

    2013-01-01

    The study was conducted to correlate the periparturient immune status in terms of neutrophil functions and cytokine expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cell culture with impending postpartum reproductive disorders in buffaloes. Forty pregnant buffaloes were observed for occurrence of postpartum reproductive disorders (PRD), i.e., metritis, endometritis and delayed uterine involution etc., during one week prepartum to four weeks postpartum period. A representative number (n = 6) of buffaloes that did not develop any PRD were included in group I (healthy, control), while the animals which experienced PRD were assigned into group II (PRD, n = 8). The blood samples were collected at weekly interval from one week prepartum to four weeks postpartum period considering the day of calving as ‘d 0’. Differential leucocytes counts, superoxide and hydrogen peroxide production activity in isolated neutrophils and the mRNA expression profile of cytokines i.e., IL-2, IL-4 and IFN-γ in PBMC culture were studied in all the samples. A higher total leucocytes, neutrophil and band cells count along with impaired neutrophil functions i.e., lowered level of production of superoxide and hydrogen peroxide before parturition and during early postpartum period were observed in buffaloes developing PRD. Further, a lower expression of IL-2, IFN-γ and IL-4 mRNA in PBMC culture was observed at calving in buffaloes that subsequently developed PRD at later postpartum. Thus, suppression in neutrophil function and cytokine expression at prepartum to early postpartum period predisposes the buffaloes to develop postpartum reproductive disorders. Hence, monitoring of neutrophils function and cytokine expression profile would be effective to predict certain reproductive disorders at late pregnancy or immediately after parturition in buffaloes. In future, this may be a novel approach for determining suitable management and therapeutic decisions for prevention of commonly occurring

  10. Shifting Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  11. Manual Aspiration Thrombectomy with Stent Placement: Rapid and Effective Treatment for Phlegmasia Cerulea Dolens with Impending Venous Gangrene

    SciTech Connect

    Oguzkurt, Levent Tercan, Fahri; Ozkan, Ugur

    2008-01-15

    Phlegmasia cerulea dolens is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication of acute deep vein thrombosis. It is an emergency and delay in treatment may cause death or loss of the patient's limb. Surgical thrombectomy is the recommended treatment in venous gangrene. Catheter-directed intrathrombus thrombolysis has been reported as successful, but it may require a lengthy infusion. Manual aspiration thrombectomy may clear the entire thrombus with no need for thrombolytic administration and provide rapid and effective treatment for patients with phlegmasia cerulea dolens with impending venous gangrene.

  12. Comparison of Percutaneous Cementoplasty with and Without Interventional Internal Fixation for Impending Malignant Pathological Fracture of the Proximal Femur

    SciTech Connect

    Tian, Qing-Hua He, Cheng-Jian Wu, Chun-Gen Li, Yong-Dong Gu, Yi-Feng Wang, Tao Xiao, Quan-Ping Li, Ming-Hua

    2016-01-15

    PurposeTo compare the efficacy of percutaneous cementoplasty (PCP) with and without interventional internal fixation (IIF) on malignant impending pathological fracture of proximal femur.MethodsA total of 40 patients with malignant impending pathological fracture of proximal femur were selected for PCP and IIF (n = 19, group A) or PCP alone (n = 21, group B) in this non-randomized prospective study. Bone puncture needles were inserted into the proximal femur, followed by sequential installation of the modified trocar inner needles through the puncture needle sheath. Then, 15–45 ml cement was injected into the femur lesion.ResultsThe overall excellent and good pain relief rate during follow-ups were significantly higher in group A than that in group B (89 vs. 57 %, P = 0.034). The average change of VAS, ODI, KPS, and EFES in group A were significantly higher than those in group B at 1-, 3-, 6-month, 1-year (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, The stability of the treated femur was significantly higher in group A than that in group B (P < 0.05).ConclusionPCP and IIF were not only a safe and effective procedure, but resulted in greater pain relief, bone consolidation, and also reduced the risk of fracture than the currently recommended approach of PCP done on malignant proximal femoral tumor.

  13. The precursory fault width formation and critical stress state of impending large earthquakes: The observation and deterministic forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeda, F.

    2009-12-01

    Dividing Japan into meshes of about 5 degrees, we collect earthquakes (EQs) for each mesh-area from an on-line JMA focus catalog of Japan with a regionally dependent magnitude window of M ≥ 3-3.5. The time history of each mesh-collection is a string of EQ events, which draw a zigzagged trajectory in a physical space. The space coordinates are the EQ epicenter, focal depth (DEP), inter-EQ time interval (INT), and magnitude (MAG). Thus, each coordinate component of the trajectory is the time series of the corresponding EQ source parameter where time is the chronological event index. The zigzagged motion appears random like Brownian motion; however, it is a deterministic chaos. The evidence is that the largest Lyapunov exponents of each trajectory are all positive, statistically distinct from those surrogated by randomly shuffling only the event index. Thus, the deterministic chaos suggests that any impending large EQ does not rupture randomly and that some deterministic seismogenesis controls the rupture process. Namely, some short-term deterministic forecasting is theoretically possible. Therefore, we first take a moving-average of 15-25 events on each series to reduce the zigzagged motion. We further take its second order difference at the interval of 20-35 events to find its acceleration (seismogenic force) acting on each averaged series. We then find only two unique different triple phase couplings of the acceleration on source parameter DEP, INT, and MAG precursory to every impending large EQs (M > about 6) throughout Japan [Takeda, 2003; Takeda and Takeo, 2004]. Each triple phase coupling begins the MAG with medium MAG of about 4.1 at either small (shallow) DEP and large INT or large (deep) DEP and small INT, then change it to small MAG of about 3.8 at either deep DEP and small INT or shallow DEP and large INT. The transition of the EQ state creates a large linear DEP variation (W) on its series, which is found comparable to the fault width of large EQs

  14. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Laurie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Gunga, H.; Johnston, S.; Westby, C.; Ribeiro, L.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Mechanisms responsible for the ocular structural and functional changes that characterize the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (ICP) syndrome (VIIP) are unclear, but hypothesized to be secondary to the cephalad fluid shift experienced in spaceflight. This study will relate the fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight with VIIP symptoms. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, can be predicted preflight with acute hemodynamic manipulations, and also if lower body negative pressure (LBNP) can reverse the VIIP effects. METHODS: Physiologic variables will be examined pre-, in- and post-flight in 10 International Space Station crewmembers including: fluid compartmentalization (D2O and NaBr dilution); interstitial tissue thickness (ultrasound); vascular dimensions and dynamics (ultrasound and MRI (including cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility)); ocular measures (optical coherence tomography, intraocular pressure, ultrasound); and ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight measures will be assessed while upright, supine and during 15 deg head-down tilt (HDT). In-flight measures will occur early and late during 6 or 12 month missions. LBNP will be evaluated as a countermeasure during HDT and during spaceflight. RESULTS: The first two crewmembers are in the preflight testing phase. Preliminary results characterize the acute fluid shifts experienced from upright, to supine and HDT postures (increased stroke volume, jugular dimensions and measures of ICP) which are reversed with 25 millimeters Hg LBNP. DISCUSSION: Initial results indicate that acute cephalad fluid shifts may be related to VIIP symptoms, but also may be reversible by LBNP. The effect of a chronic fluid shift has yet to be evaluated. Learning Objectives: Current spaceflight VIIP research is described

  15. Paradigm Shifts in the Treatment of Appendicitis.

    PubMed

    Mak, Grace Zee; Loeff, Deborah S

    2016-07-01

    Acute appendicitis is the most common cause of emergent surgery in children. Historically, surgical dogma dictated emergent appendectomy due to concern for impending perforation. Recently, however, there has been a paradigm shift in both the understanding of its pathophysiology as well as its treatment to more nonoperative management. No longer is it considered a spectrum from uncomplicated appendicitis inevitably progressing to complicated appendicitis over time. Rather, uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis are now considered two distinct pathophysiologic entities. This change requires not only educating the patients and their families but also the general practitioners who will be managing treatment expectations and caring for patients long term. In this article, we review the pathophysiology of appendicitis, including the differentiation between uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis, as well as the new treatment paradigms. [Pediatr Ann. 2016;45(7):e235-e240.].

  16. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Lauriie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Ribeiro, L.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Johnston, S.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2016-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 50% of ISS astronauts experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's preflight conditions and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. METHODS: We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by

  17. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  18. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Platts, S.

    2014-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 30% of ISS astronauts experience more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the space flight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration space flight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during space flight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight condition and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound

  19. Gender and Shifts in Higher Education Managerial Regimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carvalho, Teresa; Machado, Maria de Lurdes

    2010-01-01

    While Portugal is one of the European countries with a high representation of women in higher education, there is both horizontal and vertical segregation. The way universities and especially managerial positions are culturally embedded by masculinity is one of the obstacles women have traditionally faced. Recently, higher education institutions…

  20. Atmospheric weather regimes over tropical South America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Connors, Vickie S.; Garstang, Michael; Nolf, Scott R.

    1991-01-01

    Infrared radiance measurements by the GOES-6 satellite during April 1986 through April 1987 were used to characterize and identify distinct regimes of persistent large-scale cloudiness patterns over the Amazon Basin. It is suggested that the energetics of the tropical troposphere over the Amazon Basin can be directly related to the GOES large-scale cloudiness patterns. The geometry and persistence of the cloud patterns are influenced by shifts in general circulation features and are likely modulated by 4- to 5-day and 40- to 60-day waves. Diurnal forcing effects are more pronounced during weather regimes characterized by prominently clear skies over land areas.

  1. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A. R.; Dulchavsky, S. A.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R. W.; Ebert, D. J.; Garcia, K. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Laurie, S. S.; Lee, S. M. C.; Liu, J.; Macias, B.; Martin, D. S.; Minkoff, L.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Ribeiro, L. C.; Sargsyan, A.; Smith, S. M.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid

  2. Arctic circulation regimes.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability.

  3. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  4. Shifting sugars and shifting paradigms.

    PubMed

    Siegal, Mark L

    2015-02-01

    No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face.

  5. Proximal tibial fractures with impending compartment syndrome managed by fasciotomy and internal fixation: A retrospective analysis of 15 cases

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Naveen; Singh, Varun; Agrawal, Ashish; Bhargava, Rakesh

    2015-01-01

    Background: Proximal tibia fractures with compartment syndrome present a challenge for orthopedic surgeons. More often than not these patients are subjected to multiple surgeries and are complicated by infection osteomyelitis and poor rehabilitation. There is no consensus in the management of these fractures. Most common mode is to do early fasciotomy with external fixation, followed by second stage definitive fixation. We performed a retrospective study of proximal tibia fractures with impending compartment syndrome treated by single stage fasciotomy and internal fixation. Results in terms of early fracture union, minimum complications and early patient mobilization were very good. Materials and Methods: Fifteen patients who were operated between July 2011 and June 2012 were selected for the study. All documents from their admission until the last followup in December 2013 were reviewed, data regarding complications collected and results were evaluated using Oxford Knee scoring system. Results: At the final outcome, there was anatomical or near anatomical alignment with no postoperative problems with range of motion of near complete flexion (>120) in all patients within 3 months. 13 patients started full weight bearing walking at 3 months. Delayed union in two patients and skin necrosis in one patient was observed. Conclusions: Since the results are encouraging and the rehabilitation time is much less when compared to conventional approaches, it is recommended using this protocol to perform early fasciotomy with the definitive internal fixation as single stage surgery to obtain excellent followup results and to reduce rehabilitation time, secondary trauma, expense of treatment and infection rate. PMID:26538755

  6. Impending ionospheric anomaly preceding the Iquique Mw8.2 earthquake in Chile on 2014 April 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jinyun; Li, Wang; Yu, Hongjuan; Liu, Zhimin; Zhao, Chunmei; Kong, Qiaoli

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the coupling relationship between great earthquake and ionosphere, the GPS-derived total electron contents (TECs) by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe and the foF2 data from the Space Weather Prediction Center were used to analyse the impending ionospheric anomalies before the Iquique Mw8.2 earthquake in Chile on 2014 April 1. Eliminating effects of the solar and geomagnetic activities on ionosphere by the sliding interquartile range with the 27-day window, the TEC analysis results represent that there were negative anomalies occurred on 15th day prior to the earthquake, and positive anomalies appeared in 5th day before the earthquake. The foF2 analysis results of ionosonde stations Jicamarca, Concepcion and Ramey show that the foF2 increased by 40, 50 and 45 per cent, respectively, on 5th day before the earthquake. The TEC anomalous distribution indicates that there was a widely TEC decrement over the epicentre with the duration of 6 hr on 15th day before the earthquake. On 5th day before the earthquake, the TEC over the epicentre increased with the amplitude of 15 TECu, and the duration exceeded 6 hr. The anomalies occurred on the side away from the equator. All TEC anomalies in these days were within the bounds of equatorial anomaly zone where should be the focal area to monitor ionospheric anomaly before strong earthquakes. The relationship between ionospheric anomalies and geomagnetic activity was detected by the cross wavelet analysis, which implied that the foF2 was not affected by the magnetic activities on 15th day and 5th day prior to the earthquake, but the TECs were partially affected by anomalous magnetic activity during some periods of 5th day prior to the earthquake.

  7. Evolutionary consequences of climate-induced range shifts in insects.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa A; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Hansson, Bengt; Ott, Jürgen; Wellenreuther, Maren

    2016-11-01

    Range shifts can rapidly create new areas of geographic overlap between formerly allopatric taxa and evidence is accumulating that this can affect species persistence. We review the emerging literature on the short- and long-term consequences of these geographic range shifts. Specifically, we focus on the evolutionary consequences of novel species interactions in newly created sympatric areas by describing the potential (i) short-term processes acting on reproductive barriers between species and (ii) long-term consequences of range shifts on the stability of hybrid zones, introgression and ultimately speciation and extinction rates. Subsequently, we (iii) review the empirical literature on insects to evaluate which processes have been studied, and (iv) outline some areas that deserve increased attention in the future, namely the genomics of hybridisation and introgression, our ability to forecast range shifts and the impending threat from insect vectors and pests on biodiversity, human health and crop production. Our review shows that species interactions in de novo sympatric areas can be manifold, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing species diversity. A key issue that emerges is that climate-induced hybridisations in insects are much more widespread than anticipated and that rising temperatures and increased anthropogenic disturbances are accelerating the process of species mixing. The existing evidence only shows the tip of the iceberg and we are likely to see many more cases of species mixing following range shifts in the near future.

  8. Ecohydrology by thinking outside the bog: Shifting paradigms in an era of shifting peatland ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Moore, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Large shifts in vegetation distributions are occurring worldwide and at unprecedented rates. The most extreme of these regime shifts are expected to occur at ecosystem boundaries of both semi-arid and semi-humid landscapes. Despite extensive hydrological research on the interactions between water and semi-arid ecosystems, research in peatlands on the wet end of ecosystem continuum has been "bogged down" (pun fully intended) by the traditional conceptual models (paradigms?) of peatland hydrology and ecology. The consequences of this "thinking" are large given that northern peatlands provide important global and regional ecosystem services (carbon storage, water storage, and biodiversity). This is especially true because peatlands face increases in the severity, areal extent, and frequency of climate-mediated (e.g., wildfire, drought) and land-use change (e.g., drainage, flooding, and mining) disturbances placing the future security of these critical ecosystem services in doubt. We use the word doubt because while numerical modelling studies predict peatland regime shifts and the demise of global peat stocks, there is growing evidence that peatlands are self-regulating ecosystems dominated by negative ecohydrological feedbacks that stabilize the aforementioned ecosystem services through high ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This raises several important hydrological questions? "Is there field evidence of peatland regime shifts? If so, what are the potential impacts of these shifts on water resources and watershed management? If not, are researchers actually looking in the right places (or times)? In this presentation we explore the need for a "thinking outside the bog" in order to understand the ecohydrological consequences of transformative landscape change caused by peatland regime shifts. With reference to over two decades of field research, recent advances with our Peatland Hydrological Impacts model and recent research examining primary peat formation, we

  9. Prediction of Impending Type 1 Diabetes through Automated Dual-Label Measurement of Proinsulin:C-Peptide Ratio

    PubMed Central

    Balti, Eric V.; Keymeulen, Bart; Gillard, Pieter; Lapauw, Bruno; De Block, Christophe; Abrams, Pascale; Weber, Eric; Vermeulen, Ilse; De Pauw, Pieter; Pipeleers, Daniël; Weets, Ilse; Gorus, Frans K.

    2016-01-01

    Background The hyperglycemic clamp test, the gold standard of beta cell function, predicts impending type 1 diabetes in islet autoantibody-positive individuals, but the latter may benefit from less invasive function tests such as the proinsulin:C-peptide ratio (PI:C). The present study aims to optimize precision of PI:C measurements by automating a dual-label trefoil-type time-resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TT-TRFIA), and to compare its diagnostic performance for predicting type 1 diabetes with that of clamp-derived C-peptide release. Methods Between-day imprecision (n = 20) and split-sample analysis (n = 95) were used to compare TT-TRFIA (AutoDelfia, Perkin-Elmer) with separate methods for proinsulin (in-house TRFIA) and C-peptide (Elecsys, Roche). High-risk multiple autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives (n = 49; age 5–39) were tested for fasting PI:C, HOMA2-IR and hyperglycemic clamp and followed for 20–57 months (interquartile range). Results TT-TRFIA values for proinsulin, C-peptide and PI:C correlated significantly (r2 = 0.96–0.99; P<0.001) with results obtained with separate methods. TT-TRFIA achieved better between-day %CV for PI:C at three different levels (4.5–7.1 vs 6.7–9.5 for separate methods). In high-risk relatives fasting PI:C was significantly and inversely correlated (rs = -0.596; P<0.001) with first-phase C-peptide release during clamp (also with second phase release, only available for age 12–39 years; n = 31), but only after normalization for HOMA2-IR. In ROC- and Cox regression analysis, HOMA2-IR-corrected PI:C predicted 2-year progression to diabetes equally well as clamp-derived C-peptide release. Conclusions The reproducibility of PI:C benefits from the automated simultaneous determination of both hormones. HOMA2-IR-corrected PI:C may serve as a minimally invasive alternative to the more tedious hyperglycemic clamp test. PMID:27907006

  10. Imperfect relativistic mirrors in the quantum regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mendonça, J. T.; Serbeto, A.; Galvão, R. M. O.

    2014-05-15

    The collective backscattering of intense laser radiation by energetic electron beams is considered in the relativistic quantum regime. Exact solutions for the radiation field are obtained, for arbitrary electron pulse shapes and laser intensities. The electron beams act as imperfect nonlinear mirrors on the incident laser radiation. This collective backscattering process can lead to the development of new sources of ultra-short pulse radiation in the gamma-ray domain. Numerical examples show that, for plausible experimental conditions, intense pulses of gamma-rays, due to the double Doppler shift of the harmonics of the incident laser radiation, can be produced using the available technology, with durations less than 1 as.

  11. Regime Dependant Microphysical Variability in Darwin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolan, B.; Rutledge, S. A.; Lang, T. J.

    2010-12-01

    Of utmost importance for global precipitation estimates from satellites such as TRMM and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is to understand processes that lead to variability in precipitation on sub-seasonal, seasonal, and climatological scales. Many studies have linked differences in rainfall characteristics such as mean diameter (D0) to sub-seasonal regime variability forced by large scale wind shifts, topography, and continental and maritime convection, across various regions of the globe. Several analyses have tied differences between regimes to differing microphysical processes that drive changes in the drop-size distributions occurring in convective rainfall. For example, decreased ice mass aloft and smaller mean diameters are indicative of warm rain processes, while vigorous ice formation leads to large, melting ice to create large drops. If the microphysical variability in different regimes is characterized and understood, the results could be used to improve satellite precipitation algorithms. The polarimetric, Doppler C-band radar, CPOL, located near Darwin, Australia provides a unique platform to study differences in microphysics between land and ocean, as well as variability between monsoon and break periods. The focus of this study is to examine the microphysical processes occurring in four distinct regimes around Darwin (monsoon-land, monsoon-ocean, break-land, break-ocean), using polarimetric data from CPOL. Analyses such as contoured frequency by altitude (CFADs) diagrams, cumulative distribution functions, and mean profiles of precipitation water mass, precipitation ice mass, reflectivity, differential reflectivity and specific differential phase will aide in understanding the physics of precipitation in these regimes. The formation of precipitation ice aloft, warm rain processes, and the contributions of warm rain and cold cloud processes including melting of ice into large drops, will be linked to differences in D0, rain

  12. Impending Atypical Femoral Fracture in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Cancer With Skeletal Metastasis Treated With Long-term Bisphosphonate and Denosumab.

    PubMed

    Koizumi, Mitsuru; Gokita, Tabu; Toda, Kazuhisa

    2017-02-24

    Atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) occur in osteoporosis patients receiving long-term bisphosphonate. Atypical femoral fractures also occur in cancer patients receiving long-term bisphosphonate or denosumab, but the prevalence is low. We describe a 53-year-old woman with a history of medullary thyroid cancer and skull metastasis who was prescribed bisphosphonate for 6 years and denosumab for 1.5 years, consecutively. Bone scintigraphy performed because of spontaneous groin pain showed uptake in the lateral aspect of the left femur, which was confirmed as impending AFF. In oncological patients receiving long-term bisphosphonate or denosumab, AFF should be included as a differential diagnosis with focal femoral findings.

  13. Psychopathology of Shift Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akinnawo, Ebenezer Olutope

    1989-01-01

    Examined incidence and nature of general psychopathology among Nigerian shift workers (N=320). Found shift workers more significantly psychopathological than non-shift workers (p<0.001). Prominent disorders among shift workers were intellectual, sleep, mood, and general somatic disorders. No significant difference could be attributed to gender…

  14. Gear shift control mechanism

    SciTech Connect

    Janson, D.A.

    1987-03-10

    A gear shift control mechanism is described comprising: multiple shift rods directed substantially parallel to one another, each rod carrying a shift fork for axial movement; a shift lever supported for pivotal movement about a first axis directed parallel to the axes of the shift rods and for pivotal movement about a second axis directed substantially perpendicular to the axes of the shift rods. The lever is moveable about the first axis and the second axis into engagement with a selected shift fork; interlock means located on each lateral side of the shift lever and mounted for pivotal movement about the first axis for blocking engagement with the shift forks; detent means for holding the shift lever in multiple predetermined angular positions about the second axis; and spring means located on a lateral side of the shift lever and mounted for pivotal movement about the first axis into interference contact with the shift forks for producing a force tending to resiliently bias the shift lever out of engagement with the selected shift fork.

  15. Regime Switching State-Space Models Applied to Psychological Processes: Handling Missing Data and Making Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamaker, E. L.; Grasman, R. P. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and shifts between a "hot hand" and a…

  16. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological ...

  17. Making Shifts toward Proficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGatha, Maggie B.; Bay-Williams, Jennifer M.

    2013-01-01

    The Leading for Mathematical Proficiency (LMP) Framework (Bay-Williams et al.) has three components: (1) The Standards for Mathematical Practice; (2) Shifts in classroom practice; and (3) Teaching skills. This article briefly describes each component of the LMP framework and then focuses more in depth on the second component, the shifts in…

  18. Shifting scintillator neutron detector

    DOEpatents

    Clonts, Lloyd G; Cooper, Ronald G; Crow, Jr., Morris Lowell; Hannah, Bruce W; Hodges, Jason P; Richards, John D; Riedel, Richard A

    2014-03-04

    Provided are sensors and methods for detecting thermal neutrons. Provided is an apparatus having a scintillator for absorbing a neutron, the scintillator having a back side for discharging a scintillation light of a first wavelength in response to the absorbed neutron, an array of wavelength-shifting fibers proximate to the back side of the scintillator for shifting the scintillation light of the first wavelength to light of a second wavelength, the wavelength-shifting fibers being disposed in a two-dimensional pattern and defining a plurality of scattering plane pixels where the wavelength-shifting fibers overlap, a plurality of photomultiplier tubes, in coded optical communication with the wavelength-shifting fibers, for converting the light of the second wavelength to an electronic signal, and a processor for processing the electronic signal to identify one of the plurality of scattering plane pixels as indicative of a position within the scintillator where the neutron was absorbed.

  19. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stechmann, Samuel N.; Hottovy, Scott

    2016-06-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes -- open versus closed cells -- fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. With this new conceptual viewpoint, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions.

  20. Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

    PubMed Central

    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Nyström, Magnus; Norström, Albert V.; Williams, Ivor D.; Wedding, Lisa M.; Kittinger, John N.; Williams, Gareth J.

    2015-01-01

    Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.

  1. Projecting the risk of future climate shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis

    2006-06-01

    Recent research has shown that decadal-to-multidecadal (D2M) climate variability is associated with environmental changes that have important consequences for human activities, such as public health, water availability, frequency of hurricanes, and so forth. As scientists, how do we convert these relationships into decision support products useful to water managers, insurance actuaries, and others, whose principal interest lies in knowing when future climate regime shifts will likely occur that affect long-horizon decisions? Unfortunately, numerical models are far from being able to make deterministic predictions for future D2M climate shifts. However, the recent development of paleoclimate reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Gray et al., [2004]) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); (MacDonald and Case, [2005]) give us a viable alternative: to estimate probability distribution functions from long climate index series that allow us to calculate the probability of future D2M regime shifts. In this paper, we show how probabilistic projections can be developed for a specific climate mode - the AMO as represented by the Gray et al. ([2004]) tree-ring reconstruction. The methods are robust and can be applied to any D2M climate mode for which a sufficiently long index series exists, as well as to the growing body of paleo-proxy reconstructions that have become available. The target index need not be a paleo-proxy calibrated against a climate index; it may profitably be calibrated against a specific resource of interest, such as stream flow or lake levels.

  2. Instantaneous phase shifting deflectometry.

    PubMed

    Trumper, Isaac; Choi, Heejoo; Kim, Dae Wook

    2016-11-28

    An instantaneous phase shifting deflectometry measurement method is presented and implemented by measuring a time varying deformable mirror with an iPhone ® 6. The instantaneous method is based on multiplexing phase shifted fringe patterns with color, and decomposing them in x and y using Fourier techniques. Along with experimental data showing the capabilities of the instantaneous deflectometry system, a quantitative comparison with the Fourier transform profilometry method, which is a distinct phase measuring method from the phase shifting approach, is presented. Sources of error, nonlinear color-multiplexing induced error correction, and hardware limitations are discussed.

  3. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

  4. A Bibliography of Shift Work Research: 1950-1982

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    Shift Work and Their Explanatory Factors). Groupe de Sociologie Urbaine, Lyon, France, 1973. 190. Chemin, P.: Les rhythmes biologiques en medicine du...Conditions de travail et sante des travailleurs: Le cas du regime rotatif de travail. Sociologie et Societes (Montreal), 9:93-106, 1977. 1096. Simpson, H

  5. Improved feedback shift register

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perlman, M.

    1972-01-01

    Design of feedback shift register with three tap feedback decoding scheme is described. Application for obtaining sequence synchronization patterns is examined. Operation of the circuitry is described and drawings of the systems are included.

  6. Shape-Shifting Plastic

    SciTech Connect

    2015-05-20

    A new plastic developed by ORNL and Washington State University transforms from its original shape through a series of temporary shapes and returns to its initial form. The shape-shifting process is controlled through changes in temperature

  7. Our World: Fluid Shift

    NASA Video Gallery

    Learn about the circulatory system and how gravity aids blood flow in our bodies here on Earth. Find out how NASA flight surgeons help the astronauts deal with the fluid shift that happens during s...

  8. Shift Verification and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Pandya, Tara M.; Evans, Thomas M.; Davidson, Gregory G; Johnson, Seth R.; Godfrey, Andrew T.

    2016-09-07

    This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over a burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.

  9. Straddling a paradigm shift

    SciTech Connect

    Landgren, D.

    1995-05-01

    Paul Meagher made a big mistake when he asked me about my speech. I asked him what I should talk about. He reiterated the title of the conference {open_quotes}Forecasting and DSM: Organizing for Success,{close_quotes} and said that whatever issues I wanted to cover were fine with him. As a result I will cover those areas I`ve been thinking about recently. It is hard for me to extract either Forecasting or Demand-Side Management out from the broader issues unwinding in the industry today. I`ve been around long enough to be involved in two major shifts in the industry. I call these paradigm shifts because as a planner I tend to build models in my mind to represent business or regulatory structure. Since a paradigm is defined as a clear model of something, I tend to talk about structural shifts in the industry as paradigm shifts. The first paradigm shift was brought about by the rapid escalation of energy prices in the 1970s. The second paradigm shift, brought about in part because of the first and because of growing concerns about the environment, ushered in the era of utility conservation and load management programs (components of a broader DSM concept - unfortunately today many people limit DSM to only these two pieces). The third paradigm shift is just starting, driven by partial deregulation and the subsequent increase in competition. My talk today will focus on issues related to the second paradigm, particularly in terms of utility planners getting more organized to deal with the synergies in the fields of forecasting, demand-side planning, and evaluation. I will also reflect on two new issues within the existing paradigm that influence these functional areas, namely beneficial electrification and integration of DSM into T&D planning. Finally I will talk about what I see coming as we go through another paradigm shift, particularly as it impacts forecasting and DSM.

  10. Molecular Electronic Shift Registers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beratan, David N.; Onuchic, Jose N.

    1990-01-01

    Molecular-scale shift registers eventually constructed as parts of high-density integrated memory circuits. In principle, variety of organic molecules makes possible large number of different configurations and modes of operation for such shift-register devices. Several classes of devices and implementations in some specific types of molecules proposed. All based on transfer of electrons or holes along chains of repeating molecular units.

  11. Clock Shifts of Optical Transitions in Ultracold Atomic Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Yu Zhenhua; Pethick, C. J.

    2010-01-08

    We calculate the shift, due to interatomic interactions, of an optical transition in an atomic Fermi gas trapped in an optical lattice, as in recent experiments of Campbell et al.[Science 324, 360 (2009)]. Using a pseudospin formalism to describe the density matrix of atoms, we derive a Bloch equation which incorporates both spatial inhomogeneity of the probe laser field and interatomic interactions. Expressions are given for the frequency shift as a function of pulse duration, detuning of the probe laser, and the spatial dependence of the electric field of the probe beam. In the low temperature semiclassical regime, we find that the magnitude of the shift is proportional to the temperature.

  12. Antiresonance phase shift in strongly coupled cavity QED.

    PubMed

    Sames, C; Chibani, H; Hamsen, C; Altin, P A; Wilk, T; Rempe, G

    2014-01-31

    We investigate phase shifts in the strong coupling regime of single-atom cavity quantum electrodynamics. On the light transmitted through the system, we observe a phase shift associated with an antiresonance and show that both its frequency and width depend solely on the atom, despite the strong coupling to the cavity. This shift is optically controllable and reaches 140°--the largest ever reported for a single emitter. Our result offers a new technique for the characterization of complex integrated quantum circuits.

  13. Hall effect in hopping regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avdonin, A.; Skupiński, P.; Grasza, K.

    2016-02-01

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO.

  14. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  15. The fault width formation of impending large earthquakes: Its observation near the base of the crustal seismogenic zone by the time series analysis of seismicity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeda, F.; Takeo, M.

    2008-12-01

    Dividing Japan into meshes of about 5°, we collect earthquakes (EQ's) for each mesh-area from a focus catalog of Japan with a regionally dependent magnitude window of M >= 3-3.5. The time history of each mesh-collection is a string of EQ events, which draw a trajectory in a physical space. The space coordinates are the EQ epicenter, focal depth (DEP), inter-EQ time interval (INT), and magnitude (MAG). Thus, each coordinate component of the trajectory is the time series of the corresponding EQ source parameter where time is the chronological event index. Taking a moving-average of the series over 15-25 events, we find only two different triple phase couplings of the averaged DEP, INT, and MAG fluctuations precursory to every large EQ (M >= about 6) throughout Japan [Takeda, 2003; Takeda and Takeo, 2004]. Each triple phase coupling begins the MAG with medium MAG of about 4.1 at either small (shallow) DEP and large INT or large (deep) DEP and small INT, then change it to small MAG of about 3.8 at either deep DEP and small INT or shallow DEP and large INT. The transition of the EQ state creates a large linear DEP variation (W) on its series, which becomes comparable to the fault width of large EQ's except for only a very few cases. Thus, the precursory variation W appears to load the corresponding stress into the local region to prepare for an impending large EQ whose fault width becomes W. With the assumption of the fault length (L in km) being L = 2W, we can successfully forecast the M of the impending large EQ by an empirical relation given by Utsu [2002], log L = 0.5M - 1.8 for 6 =< M =< 8.5, [Takeda and Takeo, 2007]. Each triple phase coupling can draw its own physical picture of the seismogenic process in the earth lithosphere consisting of the brittle (B), brittle ductile transition (B-D) and ductile (D) layers. The B-D layer is at the base of the crustal seismogenic zone. The plate driving force of about 3x1012 Nm-1 creates steady state creep in the D part

  16. Trophic shift, not collapse

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Stow, Craig A.; Roseman, Edward F.; He, Ji X.

    2013-01-01

    scientists who are closely monitoring Lake Huron’s food web, we believe that the ongoing changes are more accurately characterized as a trophic shift in which benthic pathways have become more prominent. While decreases in abundance have occurred for some species, others are experiencing improved reproduction resulting in the restoration of several important native species.

  17. Understanding NMR Chemical Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jameson, Cynthia J.

    1996-10-01

    The NMR chemical shift serves as a paradigm for molecular electronic properties. We consider the factors that determine the general magnitudes of the shifts, the state of the art in theoretical calculations, the nature of the shielding tensor, and the multidimensional shielding surface that describes the variation of the shielding with nuclear positions. We also examine the nature of the intermolecular shielding surface as a general example of a supermolecule property surface. The observed chemical shift in the zero-pressure limit is determined not only by the value of the shielding at the equilibrium geometry, but the dynamic average over the multidimensional shielding surface during rotation and vibration of the molecule. In the gas, solution, or adsorbed phase it is an average of the intermolecular shielding surface over all the configurations of the molecule with its neighbors. The temperature dependence of the chemical shift in the isolated molecule, the changes upon isotopic substitution, the changes with environment, are well characterized experimentally so that quantum mechanical descriptions of electronic structure and theories related to dynamics averaging of any electronic property can be subjected to stringent test.

  18. Flow regimes during immiscible displacement

    DOE PAGES

    Armstrong, Ryan T.; Mcclure, James; Berrill, Mark A.; ...

    2017-02-01

    Fractional ow of immiscible phases occurs at the pore scale where grain surfaces and phases interfaces obstruct phase mobility. However, the larger scale behavior is described by a saturation-dependent phenomenological relationship called relative permeability. As a consequence, pore-scale parameters, such as phase topology and/ or geometry, and details of the flow regime cannot be directly related to Darcy-scale flow parameters. It is well understood that relative permeability is not a unique relationship of wetting-phase saturation and rather depends on the experimental conditions at which it is measured. Herein we use fast X-ray microcomputed tomography to image pore-scale phase arrangements duringmore » fractional flow and then forward simulate the flow regimes using the lattice-Boltzmann method to better understand the underlying pore-scale flow regimes and their influence on Darcy-scale parameters. We find that relative permeability is highly dependent on capillary number and that the Corey model fits the observed trends. At the pore scale, while phase topologies are continuously changing on the scale of individual pores, the Euler characteristic of the nonwetting phase (NWP) averaged over a sufficiently large field of view can describe the bulk topological characteristics; the Euler characteristic decreases with increasing capillary number resulting in an increase in relative permeability. Lastly, we quantify the fraction of NWP that flows through disconnected ganglion dynamics and demonstrate that this can be a significant fraction of the NWP flux for intermediate wetting-phase saturation. Furthermore, rate dependencies occur in our homogenous sample (without capillary end effect) and the underlying cause is attributed to ganglion flow that can significantly influence phase topology during the fractional flow of immiscible phases.« less

  19. Overview of the regimes: CWC

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Chemical Weapons Convention`s (CWC) seeks to eradicate an entire category of catastrophic weapons and to ensure their continued non-production. Unlike the Non-Proliferation Treaty`s (NPT), the CWC requires disarmament. States Parties having chemical weapons (CW) must destroy them. The CWC has not adopted the NPT distinction between weapons and non-weapons states; the CWC`s prohibitions and obligations will apply identically to all States parties. In most other respects, the two treaties establish similar regimes with similar approaches. Included are objectives and primary obligations, legal bases, institutional oversight, trade restrictions, protection of information, penal consequences, and role of the United Nations.

  20. The New English Quality Assurance Regime

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2011-01-01

    England is developing a new quality assurance regime that will come into effect in October 2011. A new funding regime will operate from the following year, together with new rules to ease the participation of private higher education providers. This article describes and analyses the new quality and funding regimes. It argues that the greater…

  1. Impending United States energy crisis.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, R L

    1987-03-20

    The U.S. oil and gas industry has been dramatically weakened by the recent oil price collapse. Domestic drilling activity reached a new post-World War II low during the summer of 1986. Given a weak, unstable oil price outlook, U.S. capability will continue to deteriorate. In the last year U.S. imports of foreign oil have risen significantly, and if market forces alone dominate, U.S. dependence is expected to rise from 32% in 1983 to the 50 to 70% level in the not-too-distant future. The 1973 oil embargo and the subsequent attempts to improve U.S. energy security vividly demonstrated the huge costs and long periods of time required to change our energy system. These facts, coupled with the nation's generally short-term orientation, suggest a strong likelihood of a new U.S. energy crisis in the early to middle 1990s.

  2. The Impending Oral Health Crisis.

    PubMed

    Tegtmeier, Carl H; Miller, David J; Shub, Judith L

    2016-04-01

    Last May, the New York State Dental Association and the New York State Dental Foundation convened the first "Oral Health Stakeholders' Summit on the Future of Special Needs Dentistry, Hospital Dentistry and Dental Education." The summit was chaired by David J. Miller, then NYSDA President Elect, and Carl H. Tegtmeier, then chair of the NYSDA Council on Dental Health Planning and Hospital Dentistry. It brought together experts, called to frame the issues and provide information necessary for a reasoned response. And it sought input from attendees to develop recommendations to ensure that patients with intellectual and developmental disabilities, as well as an aging population with Alzheimer's disease and dementia, have access to appropriate oral health care in the years ahead. Over 100 participants, representing dentistry, hospital training programs, third-party payers, state government offices and related patient support associations, attended the two-day event in Albany. They focused on the impact of reductions in funding, the transition of Medicaid services into a managed care model, a loss of service providers and the need for expanded training programs. They heard from speakers epresenting a broad spectrum of those involved in he oral health care of patients with intellectual and evelopmental disabilities, the Alzheimer's Association, dental educators and researchers, hospital dentistry and the benefits industry, whose presentations focused on a looming oral health crisis threatening access to dental care for patients with disabilities.

  3. Control of a haptic gear shifting assistance device utilizing a magnetorheological clutch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Young-Min; Choi, Seung-Bok

    2014-10-01

    This paper proposes a haptic clutch driven gear shifting assistance device that can help when the driver shifts the gear of a transmission system. In order to achieve this goal, a magnetorheological (MR) fluid-based clutch is devised to be capable of the rotary motion of an accelerator pedal to which the MR clutch is integrated. The proposed MR clutch is then manufactured, and its transmission torque is experimentally evaluated according to the magnetic field intensity. The manufactured MR clutch is integrated with the accelerator pedal to transmit a haptic cue signal to the driver. The impending control issue is to cue the driver to shift the gear via the haptic force. Therefore, a gear-shifting decision algorithm is constructed by considering the vehicle engine speed concerned with engine combustion dynamics, vehicle dynamics and driving resistance. Then, the algorithm is integrated with a compensation strategy for attaining the desired haptic force. In this work, the compensator is also developed and implemented through the discrete version of the inverse hysteretic model. The control performances, such as the haptic force tracking responses and fuel consumption, are experimentally evaluated.

  4. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  5. Adaptation in collaborative governance regimes.

    PubMed

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  6. Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahana, A. S.; Ghosh, Subimal; Ganguly, Auroop; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2015-05-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over India and has a significant influence on the country’s gross domestic product through the agricultural sector. Onset of the ISMR displays substantial interannual variability and controls the crop calendar and hence the agricultural output. This variability is traditionally linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific SST underwent a regime shift during 1976/77. We report a prominent delay in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset following the regime shift. The onset dates are computed with the Hydrologic Onset and Withdrawal Index, based on vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (AS). The shift in onset is found to be due to the change in moisture availability over the AS. A delay in the development of easterly vertical shear reduces northward-propagating intraseasonal variability during May-June, limiting the moisture supply from the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) to the AS. This, along with enhanced precipitation over the IO during the pre-monsoon, drives a reduction in moisture availability over the AS region from pre- to post-1976/77, delaying the ISM onset in recent decades. Our findings highlight the need for the re-assessment of the crop calendar in India, which is now based on the mean onset date computed from long-term data, without considering the regime shift or trends in onset.

  7. New shifted hybrid inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeannerot, Rachel; Khalil, Shaaban; Lazarides, George

    2002-07-01

    A new shifted hybrid inflationary scenario is introduced which, in contrast to the older one, relies only on renormalizable superpotential terms. This scenario is automatically realized in a concrete extension of the `minimal' supersymmetric Pati-Salam model which naturally leads to a moderate violation of Yukawa unification so that, for μ>0, the predicted b-quark mass is acceptable even with universal boundary conditions. It is shown that this extended model possesses a classically flat `shifted' trajectory which acquires a slope via one-loop radiative corrections and can be used as inflationary path. The constraints from the cosmic background explorer can be met with natural values of the relevant parameters. Also, there is no disastrous production of magnetic monopoles after inflation since the Pati-Salam gauge group is already broken on the `shifted' path. The relevant part of inflation takes place at values of the inflaton field which are not much smaller than the `reduced' Planck scale and, thus, supergravity corrections could easily invalidate inflation. It is, however, shown that inflation can be kept intact provided that an extra gauge singlet with a superheavy vacuum expectation value, which originates from D-terms, is introduced and a specific form of the Kähler potential is used. Moreover, it is found that, although the supergravity corrections are sizable, the constraints from the cosmic background explorer can again be met by readjusting the values of the parameters which were obtained with global supersymmetry.

  8. Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

  9. Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Yan; Gauthier, Sylvie; Gray, David R; Le Goff, Héloïse; Lefort, Patrick; Morissette, Jacques

    2013-06-01

    Fire is a major disturbance in Canadian forests. Along with fuel and ignition characteristics, climatic conditions are seen as one of the main drivers of fire regimes. Projected changes in climate are expected to significantly influence fire regimes in Canada. As fire regime greatly shapes large-scale patterns in biodiversity, carbon, and vegetation, as well as forest and fire management strategies, it becomes necessary to define regions where current and future fire regimes are homogeneous. Random Forests (RF) modeling was used to relate fire regime attributes prevailing between 1961 and 1990 in eastern Canada with climatic/fire-weather and environmental variables. Using climatic normals outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), we delineated current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2040, 2040-2070, 2071 2100) homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones. Heterogeneous response of fire regime to climate changes is projected for eastern Canada with some areas (e.g., western Quebec) experiencing very small alterations while others (e.g., southeastern Ontario) are facing great shifts. Overall, models predicted a 2.2- and 2.4-fold increase in the number of fires and the annual area burned respectively mostly as a result of an increase in extreme fire-weather normals and mean drought code. As extreme fire danger would occur later in the fire season on average, the fire season would shift slightly later (5-20 days) in the summer for much of the study area while remaining relatively stable elsewhere. Although fire regime values would change significantly over time, most zone boundaries would remain relatively stable. The information resulting from HFR zonations is clearly of interest for forest and fire management agencies as it reveals zones with peculiar fire regimes that would have been hidden otherwise using predefined administrative or ecological stratifications.

  10. A Shifted Double-Diamond Titania Scaffold.

    PubMed

    Li, Hong; Liu, Ye; Cao, Xin; Han, Lu; Jiang, Chun; Che, Shunai

    2017-01-16

    Photonic crystals are expected to be metamaterials because of their potential to control the propagation of light in the linear and nonlinear regimes. Biological single-network, triply periodic constant mean curvature surface structures are considered excellent candidates owing to their large complete band gap. However, the chemical construction of these relevant structures is rare and developing new structures from thermodynamically stable double-network self-organizing systems is challenging. Herein, we reveal that the shifted double-diamond titania scaffold can achieve a complete band gap. The largest (7.71 %) band gap is theoretically obtained by shifting 0.332 c with the dielectric contrast of titania (6.25). A titania scaffold with similar shifted double-diamond structure was fabricated using a reverse core-shell microphase-templating system with an amphiphilic diblock copolymer and a titania source in a mixture of tetrahydrofuran and water, which could result in a 2.05-3.78 % gap.

  11. Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.

    PubMed

    Beck, Pieter S A; Juday, Glenn P; Alix, Claire; Barber, Valerie A; Winslow, Stephen E; Sousa, Emily E; Heiser, Patricia; Herriges, James D; Goetz, Scott J

    2011-04-01

    Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline.

  12. Cooperative Lamb shift in a mesoscopic atomic array.

    PubMed

    Meir, Z; Schwartz, O; Shahmoon, E; Oron, D; Ozeri, R

    2014-11-07

    According to quantum electrodynamics, the exchange of virtual photons in a system of identical quantum emitters causes a shift of its energy levels. Such shifts, known as cooperative Lamb shifts, have been studied mostly in the near-field regime. However, the resonant electromagnetic interaction persists also at large distances, providing coherent coupling between distant atoms. Here, we report a direct spectroscopic observation of the cooperative Lamb shift of an optical electric-dipole transition in an array of Sr(+) ions suspended in a Paul trap at inter-ion separations much larger than the resonance wavelength. By controlling the precise positions of the ions, we studied the far-field resonant coupling in chains of up to eight ions, extending to a length of 40  μm. This method provides a novel tool for experimental exploration of cooperative emission phenomena in extended mesoscopic atomic arrays.

  13. Background and mass extinctions: the alternation of macroevolutionary regimes.

    PubMed

    Jablonski, D

    1986-01-10

    Comparison of evolutionary patterns among Late Cretaceous marine bivalves and gastropods during times of normal, background levels of extinction and during the end-Cretaceous mass extinction indicates that mass extinctions are neither an intensification of background patterns nor an entirely random culling of the biota. During background times, traits such as planktotrophic larval development, broad geographic range of constituent species, and high species richness enhanced survivorship of species and genera. In contrast, during the, end-Cretaceous and other mass extinctions these factors were ineffectual, but broad geographic deployment of an entire lineage, regardless of the ranges of its constituent species, enhanced survivorship. Large-scale evolutionary patterns are evidently shaped by the alternation of these two macroevolutionary regimes, with rare but important mass extinctions driving shifts in the composition of the biota that have little relation to success during the background regime. Lineages or adaptations can be lost during mass extinctions for reasons unrelated to their survival values for organisms or species during background times, and long-term success would require the chance occurrence within a single lineage of sets of traits conducive to survivorship under both regimes.

  14. Propagation Regime of Iron Dust Flames

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    A flame propagating through an iron-dust mixture can propagate in two asymptotic regimes. When the characteristic time of heat transfer between particles is much smaller than the characteristic time of particle combustion, the flame propagates in the continuum regime where the heat released by reacting particles can be modelled as a space-averaged function. In contrast, when the characteristic time of heat transfer is much larger than the particle reaction time, the flame can no longer be treated as a continuum due to dominating effects associated with the discrete nature of the particle reaction. The discrete regime is characterized by weak dependence of the flame speed on the oxygen concentration compared to the continuum regime. The discrete regime is observed in flames propagating through an iron dust cloud within a gas mixture containing xenon, while the continuum regime is obtained when xenon is substituted with helium.

  15. Transmission shift control assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Dzioba, D.L.

    1989-04-18

    This patent describes a transmission shift control assembly mounted on a steering column having a longitudinal axis comprising: bracket means secured to the steering column; transmission shift cable means having a portion secured to the bracket means and a portion linearly movable relative to the secured portion; mounting means on the bracket cable drive arm means having an axis and being rotatably mounted on the rotary axis on the mounting means oblique to the longitudinal axis and including a cable connecting portion secured to the movable portion of the cable means and lever mounting means adjacent the mounting means; operator control means including lever means, pin means for pivotally mounting the lever means on the lever mounting means on an axis substantially perpendicular to the rotary axis and positioning arm means formed on the lever means and extending from the pin means; and detent gate means disposed on the bracket means in position to abut the positioning arm means for limiting the extent of pivotal movement of the lever means.

  16. Reservoir management to balance ecosystem and human needs: Incorporating the paradigm of the ecological flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suen, Jian-Ping; Eheart, J. Wayland

    2006-03-01

    The history of environmental flow analysis shows a shift from an emphasis on a flat line minimum flow requirement to the development of a holistic, regime-based, approach to flow management. The ecological flow regime determines environmental flow by embracing the multitude of species within an ecosystem rather than emphasizing a single species. Moreover, this paradigm recognizes that flow magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and predictability must be incorporated into any flow management strategy. In this study, the ecological flow regime paradigm is used to establish such comprehensive and complex management targets for operating a reservoir to satisfy a downstream aquatic ecosystem. The new paradigm incorporates the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, which holds that ecosystems are healthier under disturbances that are neither too small nor too large. The nondominated sorting genetic algorithm is used to find the Pareto set of operating rules that provides decision makers with the optimal trade-off between human needs and ecological flow regime maintenance.

  17. Who cares in Nicaragua? A care regime in an exclusionary social policy context.

    PubMed

    Franzoni, Juliana Martínez; Voorend, Koen

    2011-01-01

    In Latin American countries with historically strong social policy regimes (such as those in the Southern Cone), neoliberal policies are usually blamed for the increased burden of female unpaid work. However, studying the Nicaraguan care regime in two clearly defined periods — the Sandinista and the neoliberal eras — suggests that this argument may not hold in the case of countries with highly familialist social policy regimes. Despite major economic, political and policy shifts, the role of female unpaid work, both within the family and in the community, remains persistent and pivotal, and was significant long before the onset of neoliberal policies. Nicaragua's care regime has been highly dependent on the ‘community’ or ‘voluntary’ work of mostly women. This has also been, and continues to be, vital for the viability of many public social programmes.

  18. Shift Work: Improving Daytime Sleep

    MedlinePlus

    Healthy Lifestyle Adult health I just started working the night shift, and I'm having trouble sleeping during ... as long as you work the shift. Make healthy lifestyle choices. Eat a healthy diet and include physical ...

  19. Identifying and Investigating the Late-1960s Interhemispheric SST Shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedman, A. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Liu, Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2014-12-01

    The global north-south interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) difference experienced a pronounced and rapid decrease in the late 1960s, which has been linked to drying in the Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia. However, some basic questions about the interhemispheric SST shift remain unresolved, including its scale and whether the constituent changes in different basins were coordinated. In this study, we systematically investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of the late-1960s interhemispheric SST shift using ocean surface and subsurface observations. We also evaluate potential mechanisms using control and specific-forcing CMIP5 simulations. Using a regime shift detection technique, we identify the late-1960s shift as the most prominent in the historical observational SST record. We additionally examine the corresponding changes in upper-ocean heat content and salinity associated with the shift. We find that there were coordinated upper-ocean cooling and freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic, the region of the largest-magnitude SST decrease during the interhemispheric shift. These upper-ocean changes correspond to a weakened North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). However, the THC decrease does not fully account for the rapid global interhemispheric SST shift, particularly the warming in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.

  20. Colonization dynamics of ciliate morphotypes modified by shifting sandy sediments.

    PubMed

    Risse-Buhl, Ute; Felsmann, Katja; Mutz, Michael

    2014-08-01

    Sandy stream-bed sediments colonized by a diverse ciliate community are subject to various disturbance regimes. In microcosms, we investigated the effect of sediment shifting on the colonization dynamics of 3 ciliate morphotypes differing in morphology, behavior and feeding strategy. The dynamics of the ciliate morphotypes inhabiting sediment pore water and overlying water were observed at 3 sediment shifting frequencies: (1) stable sediments, (2) periodically shifting sediments such as migrating ripples, and (3) continuously shifting sediments as occurring during scour events of the uppermost sediment. Sediment shifting significantly affected the abundance and growth rate of the ciliate morphotypes. The free-swimming filter feeder Dexiostoma campylum was vulnerable to washout by sediment shifting since significantly higher numbers occurred in the overlying water than in pore water. Abundance of D. campylum only increased in pore water of stable sediments. On the contrary, the vagile grasper feeder Chilodonella uncinata and the sessile filter feeder Vorticella convallaria had positive growth rates and successfully colonized sediments that shifted periodically and continuously. Thus, the spatio-temporal pattern of sediment dynamics acts as an essential factor of impact on the structure, distribution and function of ciliate communities in sand-bed streams.

  1. Regime Shifts and Weakened Environmental Gradients in Open Oak and Pine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Hanberry, Brice B.; Dey, Dan C.; He, Hong S.

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections. PMID:22848467

  2. Smart social adaptation prevents catastrophic ecological regime shifts in networks of myopic harvesters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, Jonathan; Lucht, Wolfgang; Wiedermann, Marc; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    In the anthropocene, the rise of global social and economic networks with ever increasing connectivity and speed of interactions, e.g., the internet or global financial markets, is a key challenge for sustainable development. The spread of opinions, values or technologies on these networks, in conjunction with the coevolution of the network structures themselves, underlies nexuses of current concern such as anthropogenic climate change, biodiversity loss or global land use change. To isolate and quantitatively study the effects and implications of network dynamics for sustainable development, we propose an agent-based model of information flow on adaptive networks between myopic harvesters that exploit private renewable resources. In this conceptual model of a network of socio-ecological systems, information on management practices flows between agents via boundedly rational imitation depending on the state of the resource stocks involved in an interaction. Agents can also adapt the structure of their social network locally by preferentially connecting to culturally similar agents with identical management practices and, at the same time, disconnecting from culturally dissimilar agents. Investigating in detail the statistical mechanics of this model, we find that an increasing rate of information flow through faster imitation dynamics or growing density of network connectivity leads to a marked increase in the likelihood of environmental resource collapse. However, we show that an optimal rate of social network adaptation can mitigate this negative effect without loss of social cohesion through network fragmentation. Our results highlight that seemingly immaterial network dynamics of spreading opinions or values can be of large relevance for the sustainable management of socio-ecological systems and suggest smartly conservative network adaptation as a strategy for mitigating environmental collapse. Hence, facing the great acceleration, these network dynamics should be more routinely incorporated in standard models of economic development or integrated assessment models used for evaluating anthropogenic climate change.

  3. Regime, phase and paradigm shifts: making community ecology the basic science for fisheries

    PubMed Central

    Mangel, Marc; Levin, Phillip S.

    2005-01-01

    Modern fishery science, which began in 1957 with Beverton and Holt, is ca. 50 years old. At its inception, fishery science was limited by a nineteenth century mechanistic worldview and by computational technology; thus, the relatively simple equations of population ecology became the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. The time has come for this to change and for community ecology to become the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. This point will be illustrated with two examples. First, when viewed from a community perspective, excess production must be considered in the context of biomass left for predators. We argue that this is a better measure of the effects of fisheries than spawning biomass per recruit. Second, we shall analyse a simple, but still multi-species, model for fishery management that considers the alternatives of harvest regulations, inshore marine protected areas and offshore marine protected areas. Population or community perspectives lead to very different predictions about the efficacy of reserves. PMID:15713590

  4. Palaeoecological signatures of vegetation change induced by herbivory regime shifts on subantarctic Enderby Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Jamie R.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

    2016-02-01

    The stratigraphic relationships of palaeoecological proxies and use of changepoint analyses to determine the cause and effect relationships between past events has allowed a better understanding of the relative contributions of humans and environmental drivers to Late Quaternary extinctions and of their effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Few studies, however, have validated these approaches at localities where past interactions between vegetation communities and large herbivores are well-documented. Here, we use a peat core from subantarctic Enderby Island to present the first study tracing the spores of dung fungi alongside pollen at a site where the history of mammalian herbivore introductions (and subsequent eradication), and their effects on the vegetation, are precisely known. We find a strong connection between spore influx rates of the dung-fungus Sporormiella and PCA axis 1 of the pollen assemblages, suggesting that past vegetation change caused by herbivore introductions and eradications at the core site can be readily deduced from the palaeoecological record. The response of the vegetation community to the removal of herbivores was so rapid, however, that a difference in timing between changepoints relating to specific pollen taxa, the overall pollen community, and the decline of Sporormiella spores, could not be resolved in our record, despite a sampling resolution of <5 years. We suggest that further case-studies, spanning different vegetation and herbivore communities, are required to provide increased confidence in inferences drawn about cause-and-effect relationships using proxy changepoint offsets in palaeoecological records.

  5. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hanberry, Brice B; Dey, Dan C; He, Hong S

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections.

  6. Evidence for a Drought-driven (pre-industrial) Regime Shift in an Australian Shallow Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, K.; Gell, P.; Doan, P.; Kershaw, P.; McKenzie, M.; Lewis, T.; Tyler, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    We present a 750-year record of ecosystem response to long-term drought history from Lake Colac, Victoria. Using multiple lines of evidence, we test the sensitivity and resilience of Lake Colac to independently reconstructed drought history. The sedimentary archive shows that Lake Colac appears to be sensitive to periods of drought. Following drought conditions c. CE 1390, the lake ecosystem indicates signs of recovery. A succession of droughts in the early 1500s initiates a change in the diatom flora, with freshwater species declining and replaced by saline tolerant species, though there is little interpretable change in aquatic palynomorphs. An inferred drought, around CE 1720 appears to precede a major switch in the lake's ecosystem. The lake became increasingly turbid and saline and there is a distinct switch from a macrophyte-dominated system to an algal-dominated system. The arrival of Europeans in Victoria (CE1840) appears to have little effect on the lake's ecosystem, but the terrestrial vegetation indicates regionally established changes including declines in native trees, especially Casuarina, and arrival and expansion of exotic shade or plantation trees Pinus and Cupressus as well as native and introduced weeds. As European impact in the catchment increases, nutrients appear to play a role in the modification of the lake's ecosystem. A long-term drying trend from c. CE 1975 is evident, culminating in the Millennium Drought, which suggests unprecedented conditions in the ecological history of the Lake.

  7. Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of arctic lakes

    PubMed Central

    Smol, John P.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Birks, H. John B.; Douglas, Marianne S. V.; Jones, Vivienne J.; Korhola, Atte; Pienitz, Reinhard; Rühland, Kathleen; Sorvari, Sanna; Antoniades, Dermot; Brooks, Stephen J.; Fallu, Marie-Andrée; Hughes, Mike; Keatley, Bronwyn E.; Laing, Tamsin E.; Michelutti, Neal; Nazarova, Larisa; Nyman, Marjut; Paterson, Andrew M.; Perren, Bianca; Quinlan, Roberto; Rautio, Milla; Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Siitonen, Susanna; Solovieva, Nadia; Weckström, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Fifty-five paleolimnological records from lakes in the circumpolar Arctic reveal widespread species changes and ecological reorganizations in algae and invertebrate communities since approximately anno Domini 1850. The remoteness of these sites, coupled with the ecological characteristics of taxa involved, indicate that changes are primarily driven by climate warming through lengthening of the summer growing season and related limnological changes. The widespread distribution and similar character of these changes indicate that the opportunity to study arctic ecosystems unaffected by human influences may have disappeared. PMID:15738395

  8. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    SciTech Connect

    Bernard, Michael Lewis

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  9. Phase shifting diffraction interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, G.E.

    1996-08-29

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of {lambda}/1000 where {lambda} is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about {lambda}/50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms. 8 figs.

  10. Phase shifting interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    1999-01-01

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of .lambda./1000 where .lambda. is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about .lambda./50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. Whereas current interferometers illuminate the optic to be tested with an aberrated wavefront which also limits the accuracy of the measurement, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical measurement wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms.

  11. Phase shifting diffraction interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    1996-01-01

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of .lambda./1000 where .lambda. is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about .lambda./50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms.

  12. Phase shifting interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, G.E.

    1999-08-03

    An interferometer is disclosed which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of {lambda}/1000 where {lambda} is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about {lambda}/50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. Whereas current interferometers illuminate the optic to be tested with an aberrated wavefront which also limits the accuracy of the measurement, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical measurement wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms. 11 figs.

  13. Hydraulically actuated well shifting tool

    SciTech Connect

    Roth, B.A.

    1992-10-20

    This patent describes a hydraulically actuated shifting tool for actuating a sliding member in a well tool. It comprises: a housing having a hydraulic fluid bore therein; shifting dog means positioned on the housing for movement away and toward the housing; locking dog means positioned on the housing for movement away and toward the body; shifting dog hydraulic actuating means in fluid communication with the bore for causing engagement of the shifting dogs with the sliding member; locking dog hydraulic actuating means in communication with the bore for causing engagement of the locking dogs with the locking means; and hydraulic shifting means in communication with the bore for causing relative movement between the shifting dog means and the locking dog means for shifting the sliding sleeve.

  14. Regimes of DNA confined in a nanochannel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Liang; Doyle, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Scaling regimes for polymers confined to tubular channels are well established when the channel cross-sectional dimension is either very small (Odjik regime) or large (classic de Gennes regime) relative to the polymer Kuhn length. In the literature, there is no clear consensus regarding the intermediate region and if subregimes even exist to connect these two classic bounding regimes. The confluence of emerging single DNA mapping technologies and a resurged interest in the fundamental properties of confined polymers has led to extensive research in this area using DNA as a model system. Due to the DNA molecule's properties and limitations of nanofabrication, most experiments are performed in this intermediate regime with channel dimensions of a few Kuhn lengths. Here we use simulations and theory to reconcile conflicting theories and show that there are indeed extended de Gennes, partial alignment and hairpin regimes located between the two classic regimes. Simulations results for both chain extension and free energy support the existence of these regimes. This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's research program in BioSystems and Micromechanics, the National Science Foundation (CBET-1335938).

  15. Three regimes of relativistic beam - plasma interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Muggli, P.; Allen, B.; Fang, Y.; Yakimenko, V.; Babzien, M.; Kusche, K.; Fedurin, M.; Vieira, J.; Martins, J.; Silva, L.

    2012-12-21

    Three regimes of relativistic beam - plasma interaction can in principle be reached at the ATF depending on the relative transverse and longitudinal size of the electron bunch when compared to the cold plasma collisionless skin depth c?{omega}{sub pe}: the plasma wakefield accelerator (PWFA), the self-modulation instability (SMI), and the current filamentation instability (CFI) regime. In addition, by choosing the bunch density, the linear, quasi-nonlinear and non linear regime of the PWFA can be reached. In the case of the two instabilities, the bunch density determines the growth rate and therefore the occurrence or not of the instability. We briefly describe these three regimes and outline results demonstrating that all these regime have or will be reached experimentally. We also outline planned and possible follow-on experiments.

  16. Recent shift in Eurasian boreal forest greening response may be associated with warmer and drier summers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Parida, Bikash; Jung, Martin; MacDonald, Glen M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Reichstein, Markus

    2014-03-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems in the northern high latitudes are currently experiencing drastic warming, and recent studies suggest that boreal forests may be increasingly vulnerable to warming-related factors, including temperature-induced drought stress as well as shifts in fire regimes and insect outbreaks. Here we analyze interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data. Our results suggest that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation, a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime. This may be the leading cause for the emergence of large-scale negative correlations between summer temperatures and forest greenness. If such a regime shift would be sustained, the dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress as predicted by vegetation models may proceed more rapidly than anticipated.

  17. Antiretroviral therapy: Shifting sands

    PubMed Central

    Sashindran, V.K.; Chauhan, Rajeev

    2016-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has been an extremely difficult pandemic to control. However, with the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV has now been transformed into a chronic illness in patients who have continued treatment access and excellent long-term adherence. Existing indications for ART initiation in asymptomatic patients were based on CD4 levels; however, recent evidence has broken the shackles of CD4 levels. Early initiation of ART in HIV patients irrespective of CD4 counts can have profound positive impact on morbidity and mortality. Early initiation of ART has been found not only beneficial for patients but also to community as it reduces the risk of transmission. There have been few financial concerns about providing ART to all HIV-positive people but various studies have proven that early initiation of ART not only proves to be cost-effective but also contributes to economic and social growth of community. A novel multidisciplinary approach with early initiation and availability of ART at its heart can turn the tide in our favor in future. Effective preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis can also lower transmission risk of HIV in community. New understanding of HIV pathogenesis is opening new vistas to cure and prevention. Various promising candidate vaccines and drugs are undergoing aggressive clinical trials, raising optimism for an ever-elusive cure for HIV. This review describes various facets of tectonic shift in management of HIV. PMID:26900224

  18. Observation of the Phononic Lamb Shift with a Synthetic Vacuum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rentrop, T.; Trautmann, A.; Olivares, F. A.; Jendrzejewski, F.; Komnik, A.; Oberthaler, M. K.

    2016-10-01

    In contrast to classical empty space, the quantum vacuum fundamentally alters the properties of embedded particles. This paradigm shift allows one to explain the discovery of the celebrated Lamb shift in the spectrum of the hydrogen atom. Here, we engineer a synthetic vacuum, building on the unique properties of ultracold atomic gas mixtures, offering the ability to switch between empty space and quantum vacuum. Using high-precision spectroscopy, we observe the phononic Lamb shift, an intriguing many-body effect originally conjectured in the context of solid-state physics. We find good agreement with theoretical predictions based on the Fröhlich model. Our observations establish this experimental platform as a new tool for precision benchmarking of open theoretical challenges, especially in the regime of strong coupling between the particles and the quantum vacuum.

  19. Cooperative Lamb shift in a quantum emitter array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, Osip; Meir, Ziv; Shahmoon, Ephraim; Oron, Dan; Ozeri, Roee

    2014-05-01

    Whenever several quantum light emitters are brought in proximity with one another, their interaction with common electromagnetic fields couples them, giving rise to cooperative shifts in their resonance frequency. Such collective line shifts are central to modern atomic physics, being closely related to superradiance on one hand and the Lamb shift on the other. Although collective shifts have been theoretically predicted more than fifty years ago, the effect has not been observed yet in a controllable system of a few isolated emitters. Here, we report a direct spectroscopic observation of the cooperative shift of an optical electric dipole transition in a system of up to eight Sr ions suspended in a Paul trap. We study collective resonance shift in the previously unexplored regime of far-field coupling, and provide the first observation of cooperative effects in an array of quantum emitters. These results pave the way towards experimental exploration of cooperative emission phenomena in mesoscopic systems. Z. Meir and O. Schwartz contributed equally to this work.

  20. Phase-shift coherence holography.

    PubMed

    Naik, Dinesh N; Ezawa, Takahiro; Miyamoto, Yoko; Takeda, Mitsuo

    2010-05-15

    We propose and experimentally demonstrate a new reconstruction scheme for coherence holography using computer-generated phase-shift coherence holograms. A 3D object encoded into the spatial coherence function is reconstructed directly from a set of incoherently illuminated computer-generated holograms with numerically introduced phase shifts. Although a rotating ground glass is used to introduce spatially incoherent illumination, the phase-shifting portion of the system is simple and free from mechanically moving components.

  1. Zero-shifted accelerometer outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galef, Arnold

    1986-08-01

    It is claimed that the commonly appearing zero-shift in pyroshock data is usually a symptom of a malfunctioning measurement system, so that the data can not be repaired (by high-pass filtering or equivalent) unless tests can be devised that permit the demonstration that the system is operating in a linear mode in all respects other than the shift. The likely cause of the zero-shift and its prevention are discussed.

  2. Distinct Turbulence Saturation Regimes in Stellarators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plunk, G. G.; Xanthopoulos, P.; Helander, P.

    2017-03-01

    In the complex 3D magnetic fields of stellarators, ion-temperature-gradient turbulence is shown to have two distinct saturation regimes, as revealed by petascale numerical simulations and explained by a simple turbulence theory. The first regime is marked by strong zonal flows and matches previous observations in tokamaks. The newly observed second regime, in contrast, exhibits small-scale quasi-two-dimensional turbulence, negligible zonal flows, and, surprisingly, a weaker heat flux scaling. Our findings suggest that key details of the magnetic geometry control turbulence in stellarators.

  3. Thermochromic shifts in supercritical fluids

    SciTech Connect

    Yonker, C.R.; Smith, R.D. )

    1989-02-23

    Thermochromic shifts of organic solute molecules in supercritical CO{sub 2} under conditions of both constant pressure and density are compared to previous studies of solvatochromic shifts at isothermal conditions. Similar solvatochromic and thermochromic shifts are seen as a function of density for supercritical CO{sub 2}. At constant density a small thermochromic shift ({approx}400 cm{sup {minus}1}) for supercritical CO{sub 2} was seen for both 2-nitroanisole and 4-ethylnitrobenzene. The excited-state dipole moments for 2-nitroanisole, as calculated from the thermochromic and solvatochromic data, were in agreement.

  4. Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using

  5. Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

    2001-01-01

    A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

  6. Spin-torque driven ferromagnetic resonance in a nonlinear regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; de Loubens, G.; Beaujour, J.-M. L.; Sun, J. Z.; Kent, A. D.

    2009-10-01

    Spin-valve based nanojunctions incorporating Co form="infix">∣Ni multilayers with perpendicular anisotropy were used to study spin-torque driven ferromagnetic resonance (ST-FMR) in a nonlinear regime. Perpendicular field swept resonance lines were measured under a large amplitude microwave current excitation, which produces a large angle precession of the Co form="infix">∣Ni layer magnetization. With increasing rf power the resonance lines broaden and become asymmetric, with their peak shifting to lower applied field. A nonhysteretic step jump in ST-FMR voltage signal was also observed at high powers. The results are analyzed in terms of the foldover effect of a forced nonlinear oscillator and compared to macrospin simulations. The ST-FMR nonhysteretic step response may have applications in frequency and amplitude tunable nanoscale field sensors.

  7. Transition from linear- to nonlinear-focusing regime in filamentation

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Khan; Durand, Magali; Baudelet, Matthieu; Richardson, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Laser filamentation in gases is often carried out in the laboratory with focusing optics to better stabilize the filament, whereas real-world applications of filaments frequently involve collimated or near-collimated beams. It is well documented that geometrical focusing can alter the properties of laser filaments and, consequently, a transition between a collimated and a strongly focused filament is expected. Nevertheless, this transition point has not been identified. Here, we propose an analytical method to determine the transition, and show that it corresponds to an actual shift in the balance of physical mechanisms governing filamentation. In high-NA conditions, filamentation is primarily governed by geometrical focusing and plasma effects, while the Kerr nonlinearity plays a more significant role as NA decreases. We find the transition between the two regimes to be relatively insensitive to the intrinsic laser parameters, and our analysis agrees well with a wide range of parameters found in published literature. PMID:25434678

  8. Predicting range-shift success potential for tropical marine fishes using external morphology.

    PubMed

    Smith, Shannen M; Fox, Rebecca J; Donelson, Jennifer M; Head, Megan L; Booth, David J

    2016-09-01

    With global change accelerating the rate of species' range shifts, predicting which are most likely to establish viable populations in their new habitats is key to understanding how biological systems will respond. Annually, in Australia, tropical fish larvae from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are transported south via the East Australian Current (EAC), settling into temperate coastal habitats for the summer period, before experiencing near-100% mortality in winter. However, within 10 years, predicted winter ocean temperatures for the southeast coast of Australia will remain high enough for more of these so-called 'tropical vagrants' to survive over winter. We used a method of morphological niche analysis, previously shown to be an effective predictor of invasion success by fishes, to project which vagrants have the greatest likelihood of undergoing successful range shifts under these new climatic conditions. We find that species from the family of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae), and the moorish idol, Zanclus cornutus, are most likely to be able to exploit new niches within the ecosystem once physiological barriers to overwintering by tropical vagrant species are removed. Overall, the position of vagrants within the morphospace was strongly skewed, suggesting that impending competitive pressures may impact disproportionately on particular parts of the native community.

  9. Earth Regime Network Evolution Study (ERNESt)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menrad, Bob

    2016-01-01

    Speaker and Presenter at the Lincoln Laboratory Communications Workshop on April 5, 2016 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, MA. A visual presentation titled Earth Regimes Network Evolution Study (ERNESt).

  10. Electron transport fluxes in potato plateau regime

    SciTech Connect

    Shaing, K.C.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    Electron transport fluxes in the potato plateau regime are calculated from the solutions of the drift kinetic equation and fluid equations. It is found that the bootstrap current density remains finite in the region close to the magnetic axis, although it decreases with increasing collision frequency. This finite amount of the bootstrap current in the relatively collisional regime is important in modeling tokamak startup with 100{percent} bootstrap current. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  11. Iranian Regime Reform: Opportunities and Consequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    formal political access to mitigate the adverse effects of . . . the deterioration of quality of life .”70 Three broad sets of factors outlined by...demanding changes in the Iranian regime that mesh with U.S.. national interests. However, the Green Movement may not be successful in effecting change...viable threat to the Iranian regime. This thesis used game theory as a tool because game theory outcomes very often reflect real- life outcomes

  12. Available Climate Regimes Drive Niche Diversification during Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Wüest, Rafael O; Antonelli, Alexandre; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Linder, H Peter

    2015-05-01

    Climate is a main predictor of biodiversity on a global scale, yet how climate availability affects niche evolution remains poorly explored. Here we assess how intercontinental climate differences may affect the evolution of climate niches and suggest three possible processes: niche truncation along major environmental gradients, intercontinental differences in available climate causing differences in selective regimes, and niche shifts associated with long-distance dispersals leading to a pattern of punctuated evolution. Using the globally distributed danthonioid grasses, we show significant niche differentiation among continents and several instances of niche truncation. The comparison of inferred selective regimes with differences in available climatic space among continents demonstrates adaptation resulting from opportunistic evolution toward available climatic space. Our results suggest that niche evolution in this clade is punctuated, consistent with accelerated niche evolution after long-distance dispersal events. Finally, we discuss how intrinsic constraints (genetic, developmental, or functional) and biotic interactions could have interacted with these three processes during range expansion. Integrating these mechanisms could improve predictions for invasive taxa and long-term evolutionary responses of expanding clades to climate change.

  13. Electron plasma wave filamentation in the kinetic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, Pavel; Rose, Harvey; Silantyev, Denis

    2016-10-01

    We consider nonlinear electron plasma wave (EPW) dynamics in the kinetic wavenumber regime, 0.25 < kλD < 0.45 , which is typical for current high temperature laser-plasma interaction experiments, where k is the EPW wavenumber and λD is the electron Debye length. In this kinetic regime, EPW frequency reduction due to electron trapping may dominate the ponderomotive frequency shift. Previous 3D PIC simulations showed that the trapped electron EPW filamentation instability can saturate stimulated Raman backscatter by reducing the EPWs coherence but multidimensional Vlasov simulations [1] are needed to address that saturation in details. We performed nonlinear, non-equilibrium 2D Vlasov simulations to study the EPW filamentation. The initial conditions are created either by external forcing or by constructing the appropriate 1D travelling Bernstein-Greene-Kruskal (BGK) mode. Transverse perturbations of any of these initial conditions grow with time eventually producing strongly nonlinear filamentation followed by plasma turbulence. We compared these simulations with the theoretical results on growth rates of the transverse instability BGK mode showing the satisfactory agreement. Supported by the New Mexico Consortium and NSF DMS-1412140.

  14. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, F. C.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large. Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  15. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, F. C.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2011-12-01

    This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that are significant and consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of consistent significant change calculatesd relative to both the natural variability and the inter-model spread. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions likelihood of hydrological change is large. Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases are large for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube. While discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  16. Metabolic impact of shift work.

    PubMed

    Zimberg, Ioná Zalcman; Fernandes Junior, Silvio A; Crispim, Cibele Aparecida; Tufik, Sergio; de Mello, Marco Tulio

    2012-01-01

    In developing countries, shift work represents a considerable contingent workforce. Recently, studies have shown that overweight and obesity are more prevalent in shift workers than day workers. In addition, shift work has been associated with a higher propensity for the development of many metabolic disorders, such as insulin resistance, diabetes, dislipidemias and metabolic syndrome. Recent data have pointed that decrease of the sleep time, desynchronization of circadian rhythm and alteration of environmental aspects are the main factors related to such problems. Shortened or disturbed sleep is among the most common health-related effects of shift work. The plausible physiological and biological mechanisms are related to the activation of the autonomic nervous system, inflammation, changes in lipid and glucose metabolism, and related changes in the risk for atherosclerosis, metabolic syndrome, and type II diabetes. The present review will discuss the impact of shift work on obesity and metabolic disorders and how disruption of sleep and circadian misalignment may contribute to these metabolic dysfunctions.

  17. Zero-G experiments in two-phase fluids flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heppner, D. B.; King, C. D.; Littles, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    The two-phase flows studied were liquid and gas mixtures in a straight flow channel of circular cross-section. Boundaries between flow regimes have been defined for normogravity on coordinates of gas quality and total mass velocity; and, when combined with boundary expressions having a Froude number term, an analytical model was derived predicting boundary shifts with changes in gravity level. Experiments with air and water were performed, first in the normogravity environment of a ground laboratory and then in 'zero gravity' aboard a KC-135 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Data reduction confirmed regime boundary shifts in the direction predicted, although the magnitude was a little less than predicted. Pressure drop measurements showed significant increases for the low gravity condition.

  18. Spectral transformations in the regime of pulse self-trapping in a nonlinear photonic crystal

    SciTech Connect

    Novitsky, Denis V.

    2011-11-15

    We consider the interaction of a femtosecond light pulse with a one-dimensional photonic crystal with relaxing cubic nonlinearity in the regime of self-trapping. By use of numerical simulations, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the spectra of reflected and transmitted light possess the properties of narrowband (quasimonochromatic) or wideband (continuumlike) radiation. It is remarkable that these spectral features appear due to a significant frequency shift and occur inside a photonic band gap of the structure under investigation.

  19. Greenland Meltwater and Arctic Circulation Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Proshutinsky, A. Y.; Timmermans, M. L.; Myers, P. G.; Platov, G.

    2015-12-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, wind-driven components of ice drift and surface ocean currents experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability alternating between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation regimes. During cyclonic regimes, low sea level atmospheric pressure dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean toward the sub-Arctic seas was intensified. During anticylonic circulation regimes, high sea level pressure dominated over the Arctic driving sea ice and ocean counter-clockwise; the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the sub-Arctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been dominated by an anticyclonic circulation regime with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for these regimes. Of essential importance is to discern the causes and consequences of the apparent break-down in the natural decadal variability of the Arctic climate system, and specifically: Why has the well-pronounced decadal variability observed in the 20th century been replaced by relatively weak interannual changes under anticyclonic circulation regime conditions in the 21st century? We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. In order to test this hypothesis, numerical experiments with several FAMOS (Forum for Arctic Modeling & Observational Synthesis) ice-ocean coupled models have been conducted. In these experiments, Greenland melt freshwater is tracked by passive tracers being constantly released along the Greenland coast. Propagation pathways and time scales of Greenland meltwater within the sub-Arctic seas are discussed.

  20. Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2011-10-01

    SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

  1. Health Effects of Shift Work

    PubMed Central

    LaDou, Joseph

    1982-01-01

    More than 13.5 million American workers, close to 20 percent of the work force, are assigned to evening or night shifts. In some industries such as automobile, petrochemical and textile manufacturing the proportion of shift workers is greater than 50 percent. As the popularity of shift work and other “alternative work schedules” grows, concern is increasing over the disturbance created in the lives of workers and their families by these economically and socially useful innovations. Twenty percent of workers are unable to tolerate shift work. Daily physiologic variations termed circadian rhythms are interactive and require a high degree of phase relationship to produce subjective feelings of wellbeing. Disturbance of these activities, circadian desynchronization, whether from passage over time zones or from shift rotation, results in health effects such as disturbance of the quantity and quality of sleep, disturbance of gastrointestinal and other organ system activities, and aggravation of diseases such as diabetes mellitus, epilepsy and thyrotoxicosis. Worker selection can reduce the number of health problems resulting from shift work. The periodic examination of shift workers is recommended. PMID:6962577

  2. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  3. Dynamic treatment regimes: technical challenges and applications

    PubMed Central

    Lizotte, Daniel J.; Qian, Min; Pelham, William E.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes are of growing interest across the clinical sciences because these regimes provide one way to operationalize and thus inform sequential personalized clinical decision making. Formally, a dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of clinical intervention. Each decision rule maps up-to-date patient information to a recommended treatment. We briefly review a variety of approaches for using data to construct the decision rules. We then review a critical inferential challenge that results from nonregularity, which often arises in this area. In particular, nonregularity arises in inference for parameters in the optimal dynamic treatment regime; the asymptotic, limiting, distribution of estimators are sensitive to local perturbations. We propose and evaluate a locally consistent Adaptive Confidence Interval (ACI) for the parameters of the optimal dynamic treatment regime. We use data from the Adaptive Pharmacological and Behavioral Treatments for Children with ADHD Trial as an illustrative example. We conclude by highlighting and discussing emerging theoretical problems in this area. PMID:25356091

  4. Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Contribution of Perennial Bunchgrasses in Altering Fire Regimes in the Great Basin

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The historic fire return interval in Wyoming sagebrush ecosystems has been estimated in the hundreds of years; however, the current fire regime has shifted to short fire return intervals with some areas burning six times in the past 60 years. Invasive annual grasses (e.g. Bromus tectorum) are freque...

  5. Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ormond, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

  6. Refining the shifted topological vertex

    SciTech Connect

    Drissi, L. B.; Jehjouh, H.; Saidi, E. H.

    2009-01-15

    We study aspects of the refining and shifting properties of the 3d MacMahon function C{sub 3}(q) used in topological string theory and BKP hierarchy. We derive the explicit expressions of the shifted topological vertex S{sub {lambda}}{sub {mu}}{sub {nu}}(q) and its refined version T{sub {lambda}}{sub {mu}}{sub {nu}}(q,t). These vertices complete results in literature.

  7. Goos-Hänchen shift.

    PubMed

    Snyder, A W; Love, J D

    1976-01-01

    An extremely simple derivation of the Goos-Hänchen shift is presented for total internal reflection at a plane interface between two semiinfinite dielectric media, as well as for optical waveguides of plane arid circular cross section. The derivation is based on energy considerations, requires knowledge of Fresnel's equation only, and shows explicitly that the shift is due to the flow of energy across the dielectric boundary.

  8. Massive superstring scatterings in the Regge regime

    SciTech Connect

    He Song; Lee, Jen-Chi; Takahashi, Keijiro; Yang Yi

    2011-03-15

    We calculate four classes of high-energy massive string scattering amplitudes of fermionic string theory at arbitrary mass levels in the Regge regime (RR). We show that all four leading order amplitudes in the RR can be expressed in terms of the Kummer function of the second kind. Based on the summation algorithm of a set of extended signed Stirling number identities, we show that all four ratios calculated previously by the method of decoupling of zero-norm states among scattering amplitudes in the Gross regime can be extracted from this Kummer function in the RR. Finally, we conjecture and give evidence that the existence of these four Gross regime ratios in the RR persists to subleading orders in the Regge expansion of all high-energy fermionic string scattering amplitudes.

  9. Common-path phase-shifting lensless holographic microscopy.

    PubMed

    Micó, Vicente; García, Javier

    2010-12-01

    We present an approach capable of high-NA imaging in a lensless digital in-line holographic microscopy layout even outside the Gabor's regime. The method is based on spatial multiplexing at the sample plane, allowing a common-path interferometric architecture, where two interferometric beams are generated by a spatial light modulator (SLM) prior to illuminating the sample. The SLM allows phase-shifting interferometry by phase modulation of the SLM diffracted beam. After proper digital processing, the complex amplitude distribution of the diffracted object wavefront is recovered and numerically propagated to image the sample. Experimental results are reported that validate the proposed method.

  10. Improving the resolution in phase-shifting Gabor holography by CCD shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granero, L.; Micó, V.; Zalevsky, Z.; García, J.; Javidi, B.

    2015-05-01

    Holography dates back to the year when Dennis Gabor reported on a method to avoid spherical aberration and to improve image quality in electron microscopy. Gabor's two-step holographic method was pioneer but suffered from three major drawbacks: the reconstructed image is affected by coherent noise, the twin image problem of holography that also affects the final image quality, and a restricted sample range (weak diffraction assumption) for preserving the holographic behavior of the method. Nowadays, most of those drawbacks have been overcome and new capabilities have been added due to the replacement of the classical recording media (photographic plate) by digital sensors (CCD and CMOS cameras). But in the Gabor' regime, holography is restricted to weak diffraction assumptions because otherwise, diffraction prevents an accurate recovery of the object's complex wavefront. In this contribution, we present an experimental approach to overcome such limitation and improve final image resolution. We use the phase-shifting Gabor configuration while the CCD camera is shifted to different off-axis positions in order to capture a bigger portion of the diffracted wavefront. Thus, once the whole image set is recorded and digitally processed for each camera's position, we merge the resulting band-pass images into one image by assembling a synthetic aperture. Finally, a superresolved image is recovered by Fourier transformation of the information contained in the generated synthetic aperture. Experimental results are provided using a USAF resolution test target and validating our concepts for a gain in resolution of close to 2.

  11. On the regimes of charge reversal.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Angeles, Felipe; Lozada-Cassou, Marcelo

    2008-05-07

    Charge reversal of the planar electrical double layer is studied by means of a well known integral equation theory. By a numerical analysis, a diagram is constructed with the onset points of charge reversal in the space of the fundamental variables of the system. Within this diagram, two regimes of charge reversal are identified, which are referred to as oscillatory and nonoscillatory. We found that these two regimes can be distinguished through a simple formula. Furthermore, a symmetry between electrostatic and size correlations in charge reversal is exhibited. Agreement of our results with other theories and molecular simulations data is discussed.

  12. Statistical regimes of random laser fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, Stefano; Cavalieri, Stefano; Oppo, Gian-Luca; Wiersma, Diederik S.

    2007-06-15

    Statistical fluctuations of the light emitted from amplifying random media are studied theoretically and numerically. The characteristic scales of the diffusive motion of light lead to Gaussian or power-law (Levy) distributed fluctuations depending on external control parameters. In the Levy regime, the output pulse is highly irregular leading to huge deviations from a mean-field description. Monte Carlo simulations of a simplified model which includes the population of the medium demonstrate the two statistical regimes and provide a comparison with dynamical rate equations. Different statistics of the fluctuations helps to explain recent experimental observations reported in the literature.

  13. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime.

    PubMed

    Amet, F; Ke, C T; Borzenets, I V; Wang, J; Watanabe, K; Taniguchi, T; Deacon, R S; Yamamoto, M; Bomze, Y; Tarucha, S; Finkelstein, G

    2016-05-20

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  14. Light focusing in the Anderson regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonetti, Marco; Karbasi, Salman; Mafi, Arash; Conti, Claudio

    2014-07-01

    Anderson localization is a regime in which diffusion is inhibited and waves (also electromagnetic waves) get localized. Here we exploit adaptive optics to achieve focusing in disordered optical fibres in the Anderson regime. By wavefront shaping and optimization, we observe the generation of a propagation-invariant beam, where light is trapped transversally by disorder, and show that Anderson localizations can be also excited by extended speckled beams. We demonstrate that disordered fibres allow a more efficient focusing action with respect to standard fibres in a way independent of their length, because of the propagation-invariant features and cooperative action of transverse localizations.

  15. Convective Regimes in Crystallizing Basaltic Magma Chambers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilbert, A. J.; Neufeld, J. A.; Holness, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    Cooling through the chamber walls drives crystallisation in crustal magma chambers, resulting in a cumulate pile on the floor and mushy regions at the walls and roof. The liquid in many magma chambers, either the bulk magma or the interstitial liquid in the mushy regions, may convect, driven either thermally, due to cooling, or compositionally, due to fractional crystallization. We have constructed a regime diagram of the possible convective modes in a system containing a basal mushy layer. These modes depend on the large-scale buoyancy forcing characterised by a global Rayleigh number and the proportion of the chamber height constituting the basal mushy region. We have tested this regime diagram using an analogue experimental system composed of a fluid layer overlying a pile of almost neutrally buoyant inert particles. Convection in this system is driven thermally, simulating magma convection above and within a porous cumulate pile. We observe a range of possible convective regimes, enabling us to produce a regime diagram. In addition to modes characterised by convection of the bulk and interstitial fluid, we also observe a series of regimes where the crystal pile is mobilised by fluid motions. These regimes feature saltation and scouring of the crystal pile by convection in the bulk fluid at moderate Rayleigh numbers, and large crystal-rich fountains at high Rayleigh numbers. For even larger Rayleigh numbers the entire crystal pile is mobilised in what we call the snowglobe regime. The observed mobilisation regimes may be applicable to basaltic magma chambers. Plagioclase in basal cumulates crystallised from a dense magma may be a result of crystal mobilisation from a plagioclase-rich roof mush. Compositional convection within such a mush could result in disaggregation, enabling the buoyant plagioclase to be entrained in relatively dense descending liquid plumes and brought to the floor. The phenocryst load in porphyritic lavas is often interpreted as a

  16. Markovian quantum master equation beyond adiabatic regime.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Makoto; Yuge, Tatsuro; Ogawa, Tetsuo

    2017-01-01

    By introducing a temporal change time scale τ_{A}(t) for the time-dependent system Hamiltonian, a general formulation of the Markovian quantum master equation is given to go well beyond the adiabatic regime. In appropriate situations, the framework is well justified even if τ_{A}(t) is faster than the decay time scale of the bath correlation function. An application to the dissipative Landau-Zener model demonstrates this general result. The findings are applicable to a wide range of fields, providing a basis for quantum control beyond the adiabatic regime.

  17. Markovian quantum master equation beyond adiabatic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Makoto; Yuge, Tatsuro; Ogawa, Tetsuo

    2017-01-01

    By introducing a temporal change time scale τA(t ) for the time-dependent system Hamiltonian, a general formulation of the Markovian quantum master equation is given to go well beyond the adiabatic regime. In appropriate situations, the framework is well justified even if τA(t ) is faster than the decay time scale of the bath correlation function. An application to the dissipative Landau-Zener model demonstrates this general result. The findings are applicable to a wide range of fields, providing a basis for quantum control beyond the adiabatic regime.

  18. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amet, F.; Ke, C. T.; Borzenets, I. V.; Wang, J.; Watanabe, K.; Taniguchi, T.; Deacon, R. S.; Yamamoto, M.; Bomze, Y.; Tarucha, S.; Finkelstein, G.

    2016-05-01

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  19. Delinating Thermohaline Double-Diffusive Rayleigh Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graf, T.; Walther, M.; Kolditz, O.; Liedl, R.

    2013-12-01

    In natural systems, convective flow induced from density differences may occur in near-coastal aquifers, atmospheric boundary layers, oceanic streams or within the earth crust. Whether an initially stable, diffusive regime evolves into a convective (stable or chaotic) regime, or vice versa, depends on the system's framing boundary conditions. A conventional parameter to express the relation between diffusive and convective forces of such a density-driven regime is Rayleigh number (Ra). While most systems are mainly dominated by only a single significant driving force (i.e. only temperature or salinity), some systems need to consider two boundary processes (e.g. deep, thus warm, haline flow in porous media). In that case, a two-dimensional, 'double-diffusive' Rayleigh system can be defined. Nield (1998) postulated a boundary between diffusive and convective regime at RaT + RaC = 4pi^2 in the first quadrant (Q1), with Rayleigh numbers for temperature and concentration respectively. The boundary in the forth quadrant (Q4) could not exactly be determined, yet the approximate position estimated. Simulations with HydroGeoSphere (Therrien, 2010) using a vertical, quadratic, homogeneous, isotropic setup confirmed the existence of the 4pi^2-boundary and revealed additional regimes (diffusive, single-roll, double-roll, chaotic) in Q1. Also, non-chaotic, oscillating patterns could be identified in Q4. More detailed investigations with OpenGeoSys (Kolditz, 2012) confirmed the preceding HGS results, and, using a 1:10-scaled domain (height:length), uncovered even more distinctive regimes (diffusive, minimum ten roles, supposely up to 25 roles, and chaotic?) in Q1, while again, oscillating patterns were found in the transition zone between diffusive and chaotic regimes in Q4. Output of numerical simulations from Q1 and Q4 show the mentioned regimes (diffusive, stable-convective, stable-oscillatory, chaotic) while results are displayed in context of a possible delination between

  20. Characteristics of Whipple Shield Performance in the Shatter Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ryan, Shannon; Bjorkman, Michael; Christiansen, Eric L.

    2009-01-01

    Between the onset of projectile fragmentation and the assumption of rear wall failure due to an impulsive load, multi-wall ballistic limit equations are linearly interpolated to provide reasonable yet conservative predictions of perforation thresholds with conveniently simple mathematics. Although low velocity and hypervelocity regime predictions are based on analytical expressions, there is no such scientific foundation for predictions in the intermediate (or shatter) regime. As the debris flux in low earth orbit (LEO) becomes increasingly dominated by manmade pollution, the profile of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk shifts continually towards lower velocities. For the International Space Station (ISS), encounter velocities below 7 km/s now constitute approximately 50% of the penetration risk. Considering that the transition velocity from shatter to hypervelocity impact regimes described by common ballistic limit equations (e.g. new non-optimum Whipple shield equation [1]) occurs at 7 km/s, 50% of station risk is now calculated based on failure limit equations with little analytical foundation. To investigate projectile and shield behavior for impact conditions leading to projectile fragmentation and melt, a series of hypervelocity impact tests have been performed on aluminum Whipple shields. In the experiments projectile diameter, bumper thickness, and shield spacing were kept constant, while rear wall thickness was adjusted to determine spallation and perforation limits at various impact velocities and angles. The results, shown in Figure 1 for normal and 45 impacts, demonstrated behavior that was not sufficiently described by the simplified linear interpolation of the NNO equation (also shown in Figure 1). Hopkins et al. [2] investigated the performance of a nominally-identical aluminum Whipple shield, identifying the effects of phase change in the shatter regime. The results (conceptually represented in Figure 2) were found to agree well with

  1. Blue shifts vs red shifts in sigma-hole bonding.

    PubMed

    Murray, Jane S; Concha, Monica C; Lane, Pat; Hobza, Pavel; Politzer, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Sigma-hole bonding is a noncovalent interaction between a region of positive electrostatic potential on the outer surface of a Group V, VI, or VII covalently-bonded atom (a sigma-hole) and a region of negative potential on another molecule, e.g., a lone pair of a Lewis base. We have investigated computationally the occurrence of increased vibration frequencies (blue shifts) and bond shortening vs decreased frequencies (red shifts) and bond lengthening for the covalent bonds to the atoms having the sigma-holes (the sigma-hole donors). Both are possible, depending upon the properties of the donor and the acceptor. Our results are consistent with models that were developed earlier by Hermansson and by Qian and Krimm in relation to blue vs red shifting in hydrogen bond formation. These models invoke the derivatives of the permanent and the induced dipole moments of the donor molecule.

  2. A Framework Of Resilience Measures In Catastrophic Shift Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, V.; Kumar, P.

    2011-12-01

    Resilience of systems is an important attribute for understanding their behavior in an environment of change such as due to climate change or human impact. Yet, this notion has generally been used without precise quantitative measures. Resilience measures depend on the properties of both the system and the disturbance. We study resilience of the catastrophic shift system to develop mathematical measures of resilience. Catastrophic shift systems are archetype of systems that can maintain functional ability under disturbance, undergo sudden shifts to contrasting dynamic regimes under extreme stress and exhibit resistance to recovery. Therefore, the study of this system has broad applicability. We expand upon the existing notion of engineering and ecological resilience (defined as time to recovery of the system state following a disturbance event, and the amount of disturbance needed to push the system into an alternative regime) to develop new measures. We develop a number of measures for the catastrophic shift systems such as i) engineering resilience, ii) ecological resilience, iii) activation energy, iv) state recovery velocity, v) potential recovery velocity, vi) regime probability, vii) mode etc using a stochastic non-linear dynamical approach. We evaluate the behavior of these measures under Gaussian white noise and Markovian dichotomous noise. Different resilience measures yield different values for a given well-posed system-disturbance couple. Furthermore, a given resilience measure yields different values when the system is subject to different disturbances. An important capability of this quantitative formulation method is that it allows us to develop iso-resilience curves that can be used for control and maintenance of catastrophic shift systems. Iso-resilience curves connect points that have identical resilience values. These quantitative measures provide a unique opportunity for determining the optimum path of travel in the resilience landscape for

  3. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-10-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics.

  4. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    PubMed Central

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-01-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics. PMID:27761005

  5. A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2014-12-01

    Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

  6. Climatic regimes of tropical convection and rainfall

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Bin )

    1994-07-01

    Annual distribution and phase propagation of tropical convection are delineated using harmonic and amplitude-phase characteristics analysis of climatological pentad mean outgoing longwave radiation and monthly frequencies of highly reflective cloud. An annual eastward propagation of peak rainy season along the equator from the central Indian Ocean (60[degrees]E) to Arafura Sea (130[degrees]E) is revealed. This indicates a transition from the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon to the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. Significant bimodal variations are found around major summer monsoon regions. These variations originate from the interference of two adjacent regimes. The convergence zones over the eastern North Pacific, the South Pacific, and the southwest Indian Ocean are identified as a marine monsoon regime that is characterized by a unimodal variation with a concentrated summer rainfall associated with the development of surface westerlies equatorward of a monsoon trough. Conversely, the central North Pacific and North Atlantic convergence zones between persistent northeast and southeast trades are classified as trade-wind convergence zones; which differ from the marine monsoon regime by their persistent rainy season and characteristic bimodal variation with peak rainy seasons occurring in late spring and fall. The roles of the annual march of sea surface temperature in the phase propagation and formation of various climatic regimes of tropical convection are also discussed. 34 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Knowledge Regimes and Contradictions in Education Reforms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aasen, Petter; Prøitz, Tine Sophie; Sandberg, Nina

    2014-01-01

    The article outlines a theoretical framework for understanding education policy and education reforms based on the concept of knowledge regimes. The concept refers to understandings and definitions of governance and procedural aspects, manners of governing and curriculum issues, thus it comprises contents, structures, and processes of education…

  8. Impacts of different hydrodynamic regimes on flocculation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Mendoza, Rafael; Souza, Alejandro; Amoudry, Laurent

    2014-05-01

    A number of activities carried out in coastal zones and estuaries are affected by sediment transport. Therefore, good knowledge of the processes involved is necessary to adequately manage these areas. Flocculation is a key process on fine sediment dynamics, which affects the effective particle size and settling velocity. The process is further complicated under the combined effect of currents and waves. This research seeks to improve our understanding of the flocculation process under the combined effect of currents and waves. The study site is the Dee Estuary located in Liverpool Bay, United Kingdom. Measurements of volume concentration, grain size and current velocities near the sea bed were obtained from a mooring deployed between 12 February 2008 and 9 March 2008. Turbulent properties could also be calculated because of the fast sampling rate used for current velocities. Water samples were taken from a research vessel during the first two days of the study in order to calibrate moored instruments and convert volume to mass concentration. The observations almost covered two fortnightly periods and three different dynamic regimes can be distinguished: currents-only, combined waves and currents, and wave dominated. During the currents-only regime, floc aggregation and breakup coincide with periods of low and high turbulent stress respectively. The combination of waves and spring tide currents makes the second regime and the floc breakup is most dominant when waves are higher than one meter and small flocs are found even with low turbulent stress from both waves and currents. The third regime is identified as wave-dominant during neap tides with current speed less than 0.25 m/s and waves of 1-2 meters height. In this regime the wave effect takes large sediment into suspension at the same time as small particle sizes from floc breakup. In this case the median particle size is strongly related to the wave height which means that a slight particle aggregation is still

  9. Integrated reformer and shift reactor

    DOEpatents

    Bentley, Jeffrey M.; Clawson, Lawrence G.; Mitchell, William L.; Dorson, Matthew H.

    2006-06-27

    A hydrocarbon fuel reformer for producing diatomic hydrogen gas is disclosed. The reformer includes a first reaction vessel, a shift reactor vessel annularly disposed about the first reaction vessel, including a first shift reactor zone, and a first helical tube disposed within the first shift reactor zone having an inlet end communicating with a water supply source. The water supply source is preferably adapted to supply liquid-phase water to the first helical tube at flow conditions sufficient to ensure discharge of liquid-phase and steam-phase water from an outlet end of the first helical tube. The reformer may further include a first catalyst bed disposed in the first shift reactor zone, having a low-temperature shift catalyst in contact with the first helical tube. The catalyst bed includes a plurality of coil sections disposed in coaxial relation to other coil sections and to the central longitudinal axis of the reformer, each coil section extending between the first and second ends, and each coil section being in direct fluid communication with at least one other coil section.

  10. Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

    2016-06-01

    Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

  11. Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

    2007-01-01

    Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Electrically Tunable Goos-Hänchen Effect with Graphene in the Terahertz Regime

    DOE PAGES

    Fan, Yuancheng; Shen, Nian-Hai; Zhang, Fuli; ...

    2016-07-14

    Goos-Hänchen (G-H) effect is of great interest in the manipulation of optical beams. However, it is still fairly challenging to attain efficient controls of the G-H shift for diverse applications. Here, we propose a mechanism to realize tunable G-H shift in the terahertz regime with electrically controllable graphene. Taking monolayer graphene covered epsilon-near-zero metamaterial as a planar model system, it is found that the G-H shift for the orthogonal s-polarized and p-polarized terahertz beams at oblique incidence are positive and negative, respectively. The G-H shift can be modified substantially by electrically controlling the Fermi energy of the monolayer graphene. Reversely,more » the Fermi energy dependent G-H effect can also be used as a strategy for measuring the doping level of graphene. In addition, the G-H shifts of the system are of strong frequency-dependence at oblique angles of incidence, therefore the proposed graphene hybrid system can potentially be used for the generation of terahertz “rainbow”, a flat analog of the dispersive prism in optics. The proposed scheme of hybrid system involving graphene for dynamic control of G-H shift will have potential applications in the manipulation of terahertz waves.« less

  13. Electrically Tunable Goos-Hänchen Effect with Graphene in the Terahertz Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Yuancheng; Shen, Nian-Hai; Zhang, Fuli; Wei, Zeyong; Li, Hongqiang; Zhao, Qian; Fu, Quanhong; Zhang, Peng; Koschny, Thomas; Soukoulis, Costas M.

    2016-07-14

    Goos-Hänchen (G-H) effect is of great interest in the manipulation of optical beams. However, it is still fairly challenging to attain efficient controls of the G-H shift for diverse applications. Here, we propose a mechanism to realize tunable G-H shift in the terahertz regime with electrically controllable graphene. Taking monolayer graphene covered epsilon-near-zero metamaterial as a planar model system, it is found that the G-H shift for the orthogonal s-polarized and p-polarized terahertz beams at oblique incidence are positive and negative, respectively. The G-H shift can be modified substantially by electrically controlling the Fermi energy of the monolayer graphene. Reversely, the Fermi energy dependent G-H effect can also be used as a strategy for measuring the doping level of graphene. In addition, the G-H shifts of the system are of strong frequency-dependence at oblique angles of incidence, therefore the proposed graphene hybrid system can potentially be used for the generation of terahertz “rainbow”, a flat analog of the dispersive prism in optics. The proposed scheme of hybrid system involving graphene for dynamic control of G-H shift will have potential applications in the manipulation of terahertz waves.

  14. Paradigm Shifts in Ophthalmic Diagnostics*

    PubMed Central

    Sebag, J.; Sadun, Alfredo A.; Pierce, Eric A.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Future advances in ophthalmology will see a paradigm shift in diagnostics from a focus on dysfunction and disease to better measures of psychophysical function and health. Practical methods to define genotypes will be increasingly important and non-invasive nanotechnologies are needed to detect molecular changes that predate histopathology. Methods This is not a review nor meant to be comprehensive. Specific topics have been selected to illustrate the principles of important paradigm shifts that will influence the future of ophthalmic diagnostics. It is our impression that future evaluation of vision will go beyond visual acuity to assess ocular health in terms of psychophysical function. The definition of disease will incorporate genotype into what has historically been a phenotype-centric discipline. Non-invasive nanotechnologies will enable a paradigm shift from disease detection on a cellular level to a sub-cellular molecular level. Results Vision can be evaluated beyond visual acuity by measuring contrast sensitivity, color vision, and macular function, as these provide better insights into the impact of aging and disease. Distortions can be quantified and the psychophysical basis of vision can be better evaluated than in the past by designing tests that assess particular macular cell function(s). Advances in our understanding of the genetic basis of eye diseases will enable better characterization of ocular health and disease. Non-invasive nanotechnologies can assess molecular changes in the lens, vitreous, and macula that predate visible pathology. Oxygen metabolism and circulatory physiology are measurable indices of ocular health that can detect variations of physiology and early disease. Conclusions This overview of paradigm shifts in ophthalmology suggests that the future will see significant improvements in ophthalmic diagnostics. The selected topics illustrate the principles of these paradigm shifts and should serve as a guide to further

  15. Shifts and oscillations in a forest-grassland ecosystem affected by fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiliotis, Konstantinos G.; Russo, Lucia

    2016-12-01

    The existence of periodic regimes of a forest-grassland ecosystem is here investigated as the main parameters are changed. The model consists of a couple of nonlinear ordinary differential equations which describes the evolution of the forest densities and includes the feed-back mechanisms induced by fires, coupled with the human perceptions of the forest/grassland value. The system shows a rich dynamic behavior such as: transient oscillations; the presence of dynamic regimes which are characterized by periodic oscillations in time; and shifts between steady and dynamic regimes as the parameters are perturbed. Focusing on the periodic regimes, we performed the bifurcation analysis of the system to detect the critical points which are responsible of the appearance of the periodic regimes. In particular, considering as bifurcation parameter the one that regulates the feed-back mechanism induced by fires, we found that Hopf bifurcations are responsible for appearance of periodic regimes, whereas the sudden appearance/ disappearance is related to the presence of catastrophic bifurcations (limit points of the periodic regimes).

  16. Wavelength-shifted Cherenkov radiators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krider, E. P.; Jacobson, V. L.; Pifer, A. E.; Polakos, P. A.; Kurz, R. J.

    1976-01-01

    The scintillation and Cherenkov responses of plastic Cherenkov radiators containing different wavelength-shifting fluors in varying concentrations have been studied in beams of low energy protons and pions. For cosmic ray applications, where large Cherenkov to scintillation ratios are desired, the optimum fluor concentrations are 0.000025 by weight or less.

  17. Leadership Shifts in Changing Field

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2013-01-01

    As groups representing local and state education players struggle to remain relevant in a policy conversation often dominated by foundations, think tanks, new advocacy groups, and political and business figures, a shift in leadership has been under way at major associations. Most of the changes have come as part of the natural churn; former…

  18. Anthropometric changes and fluid shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thornton, W. E.; Hoffler, G. W.; Rummel, J. A.

    1974-01-01

    Several observations of body size, shape, posture, and configuration were made to document changes resulting from direct effects of weightlessness during the Skylab 4 mission. After the crewmen were placed in orbit, a number of anatomical and anthropometric changes occurred including a straightening of the thoracolumbar spine, a general decrease in truncal girth, and an increase in height. By the time of the earliest in-flight measurement on mission day 3, all crewmen had lost more than two liters of extravascular fluid from the calf and thigh. The puffy facies, the bird legs effect, the engorgement of upper body veins, and the reduced volume of lower body veins were all documented with photographs. Center-of-mass measurements confirmed a fluid shift cephalad. This shift remained throughout the mission until recovery, when a sharp reversal occurred; a major portion of the reversal was completed in a few hours. The anatomical changes are of considerable scientific interest and of import to the human factors design engineer, but the shifts of blood and extravascular fluid are of more consequence. It is hypothesized that the driving force for the fluid shift is the intrinsic and unopposed lower limb elasticity that forces venous blood and then other fluid cephalad.

  19. Illinois Shifting Gears Policy Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weitzel, Peter C.

    2009-01-01

    Illinois Shifting Gears is a multilevel initiative that has simultaneously created bridge programs in the field and altered state policy to facilitate the creation of more programs in the future. These efforts have informed each other, giving policymakers the opportunity to interact with practitioners, troubleshoot bridge programs, and make…

  20. Technology Counts 2012: Virtual Shift

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Education Week, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Virtual education is moving into that intersection where rising popularity meets calls for greater accountability. How the virtual education movement responds to those calls will have a significant impact on how it evolves in K-12 over the next five to 10 years. This report tackles this shift in the virtual education landscape. It examines the…

  1. The Shift Needed for Sustainability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Peter A. C.; Sharicz, Carol

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this action research is to begin to assess to what extent organizations have in practice begun to make the shift towards triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability. Design/methodology/approach: A definition of TBL sustainability is provided, and key elements of TBL sustainability considered necessary to success are identified…

  2. Lamb shift in muonic hydrogen

    SciTech Connect

    Borie, E.

    2005-03-01

    The Lamb shift in muonic hydrogen continues to be a subject of experimental and theoretical investigation. Here my older work on the subject is updated to provide a complementary calculation of the energies of the 2p-2s transitions in muonic hydrogen.

  3. Size-Dependent Raman Shifts for nanocrystals

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yukun; Zhao, Xinmei; Yin, Penggang; Gao, Faming

    2016-01-01

    Raman spectroscopy is a very sensitive tool for probing semiconductor nanocrystals. The underlying mechanism behind the size-dependent Raman shifts is still quite controversial. Here we offer a new theoretical method for the quantum confinement effects on the Raman spectra of semiconductor nanocrystals. We propose that the shift of Raman spectra in nanocrystals can result from two overlapping effects: the quantum effect shift and surface effect shift. The quantum effect shift is extracted from an extended Kubo formula, the surface effect shift is determined via the first principles calculations. Fairly good prediction of Raman shifts can be obtained without the use of any adjustable parameter. Closer analysis shows that the size-dependent Raman shifts in Si nanocrystals mainly result from the quantum effect shifts. For nanodiamond, the proportion of surface effect shift in Raman shift is up to about 40%. Such model can also provide a good baseline for using Raman spectroscopy as a tool to measure size. PMID:27102066

  4. Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David; Baskaran, Subbiah

    1995-01-01

    The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

  5. Flamelet Regime Diagram for Turbulent Combustion Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Wai Lee; Ihme, Matthias; Kolla, Hemanth; Chen, Jacqueline

    2016-11-01

    The flamelet model has been widely used in numerical combustion investigations, particularly for the closure of large-eddy simulations (LES) of turbulent reacting flows. In most cases, the simulation results demonstrated good agreements with their experimental counterparts. However, a systematic analysis of the flamelet model's applicability, as well as its potential limitations, is seldom conducted, and the model performance is usually based only on a-posteriori comparisons. The objective of this work is to derive a metric that can formally quantify the suitability of the flamelet model in different flame configurations. For this purpose, a flamelet regime diagram has been developed and studied in the context of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a turbulent lifted jet flame. The implementation of the regime diagram in LES has been investigated through explicit filtering of the DNS results.

  6. Photoelectron circular dichroism in different ionization regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollenhaupt, Matthias

    2016-12-01

    Photoelectron circular dichroism (PECD) describes an asymmetry in the photoelectron angular distribution (PAD) from photoionization of randomly oriented enantiomers with circularly polarized light. Baulieu et al present a comprehensive set of measured PADs from multiphoton ionization of limonene and fenchone in different ionization regimes (multiphoton and tunneling) and analyze the resulting PECD (Baulieu et al 2016 New J. Phys. 18 102002). From their observations the authors conclude that the PECD is universal in the sense that the molecular chirality is encoded in the PAD independent of the ionization regime. The analysis is supplemented by a classical model based on electron scattering in a chiral potential. The paper presents beautiful data and is an important step towards a more complete physical picture of PECD. The results and their interpretation stimulate the ongoing vivid debate on the role of resonances in multiphoton PECD.

  7. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  8. Economic Performance and North Korean Regime Legitimacy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    PERFORMANCE AND NORTH KOREAN REGIME LEGITIMACY by Patrick J. Moore June 2014 Thesis Advisor: Naazneen Barma Second Reader: Robert Weiner THIS...Advisor Dr. Robert Weiner Second Reader Dr. Mohammed Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iv THIS PAGE...offers a view of success, the country outside the capital is a much different situation. Victor Cha writes that even in Kaesong, the second -largest city

  9. A Regime Legitimacy Explanation of African Peacekeeping

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    peacekeeping in a U-shaped curve, meaning that states attempting to increase their legitimacy participate at a higher-than-expected level. Likewise, the...distribution is unlimited A REGIME LEGITIMACY EXPLANATION OF AFRICAN PEACEKEEPING Matthew Ross Second Lieutenant, United States Air Force...B.S., Political Science, United States Air Force Academy, 2010 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

  10. Maxwellian distribution in non-classical regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohazzabi, Pirooz; L. Helvey, Shannon; McCumber, Jeremy

    2002-12-01

    A molecular dynamics investigation shows that the assumption of molecular chaos remains valid in the non-classical regime. Consequently, the velocity distribution function of an extremely dense system of spinless particles relaxes into Maxwellian, even in the presence of arbitrary interactions between the particles of the system. Systems with densities exceeding 30 times solid densities are investigated using a soft Lennard-Jones interparticle potential energy function.

  11. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty regime

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, including national safeguards agreements and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Statute, embodies the international effort to ban illicit transfers of nuclear material and acquisition or transfer of nuclear weaponry. Included are objectives and primary obligations, legal bases, institutional oversight, trade restrictions, protection of information, penal consequences, and role of the United Nations. Regional agreements supplement the NPT.

  12. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-25

    the further spread of nuclear weapons, several challenges to the regime have arisen in recent years: India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998...States and other countries to India , a non-party to the NPT with nuclear weapons, has raised questions about what benefits still exist for non... India , Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are not members of the NPT. Apart from diplomatic questions about how to treat their status as states with

  13. Bose polarons in the strongly interacting regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kedar, Dhruv; Hu, Ming-Guang; van de Graaff, Michael; Corson, John; Cornell, Eric; Jin, Deborah

    2016-05-01

    Impurities immersed in and interacting with a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) are predicted to form quasiparticle excitations called Bose polarons. I will present experimental evidence of Bose polarons in cold atoms obtained using radio-frequency spectroscopy to measure the excitation spectrum of fermionic K-40 impurities interacting with a BEC of Rb-87 atoms. We use an interspecies Feshbach resonance to tune the interactions between the impurities and the bosons, and we take data in the strongly interacting regime.

  14. Utilizing Surface Sensors to Identify Wake Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mengying; Hemati, Maziar S.

    2016-11-01

    Marine swimmers often exploit external flow structures to reduce locomotive effort. To achieve this advantage, these swimmers utilize mechanosensory organs on the surface of their bodies to detect hydrodynamic signals from the surrounding fluid, which can then be used to inform the control task. Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing similar flow sensing systems to achieve enhanced propulsive efficiency and maneuverability in human-engineered underwater vehicles. In particular, much attention has been given to the problem of wake sensing; however, these investigations have concentrated on a restricted class of wakes-i.e., Kármán-type vortex streets-whereas more complicated wake structures can arise in practice. In this talk, we will explore the possibility of identifying wake regimes through the use of surface sensors. Potential flow theory is adopted to simulate the interactions of various wakes with a fish-like body. Wakes in different dynamical regimes impart distinct hydrodynamic signatures on the body, which permits these regimes to be distinguished from one another in an automated fashion. Our results can provide guidance for improving flow sensing capabilities in human-engineered systems and hint at how marine swimmers may sense their hydrodynamic surroundings.

  15. Partial accretion regime of accreting millisecond pulsars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eksi, Kazim

    2016-07-01

    The inner parts of the disks around neutron stars in low mass X-ray binaries may become geometrically thick due to inhibition of accretion at the disk mid-plane when the central object is rotating rapidly. In such a case matter inflowing through the disk may keep accreting onto the poles of the neutron star from the parts of the disk away from the disk mid-plane while the matter is propelled at the disk mid-plane. An important ingredient of the evolution of millisecond pulsars is then the fraction of the inflowing matter that can accrete onto the poles in the fast rotation regime depending on the fastness parameter. This ``soft'' propeller regime may be associated with the rapid decay stage observed in the light curves of several accreting millisecond pulsars. To date only a few studies considered the partial accretion regime. By using geometrical arguments we improve the existing studies and test the model by reproducing the lightcurves of millisecond X-ray pulsars via time dependent simulations of disk evolution. We also present analytical solutions that represent disks with partial accretion.

  16. Dynamical Response of Continuum Regime Langmuir Probe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rappaport, H. L.

    2009-11-01

    Probe dynamic response is sometimes used as a way to increase the amount of information obtained from Langmuir probes [1]. In this poster, the effects of frequency dependent probe capacitance and coupling of probe fields to damped Langmuir waves and damped ion acoustic waves are considered. In the continuum regime, with small Debye length to spherical probe radius ratio, the probe DC current vs. voltage characteristic displays a hard saturation at sufficiently large probe potential [2]. In this regime, the sheath thickness varies little with the applied voltage although the plasma response can still be measured. A goal of the present investigation is to show that the probe dynamical response is richer as a result of modulation of sheath thickness or shielding particularly in the larger Debye length to probe radius ratio regime. Inertia inhibits ion response at sufficiently high frequency and deviation from the DC characteristic is shown.[4pt] [1] D. N. Walker, R.F. Fernsler, D.D. Blackwell, and W.E. Amatucci, Phys. Plasmas 15, 123506 (2008).[0pt] [2] E. Baum and R.L. Chapkis, AIAA J. 8, 1073 (1970).

  17. Constructing an interdisciplinary flow regime recommendation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    It is generally agreed that river rehabilitation most often relies on restoring a more natural flow regime, but credibly defining the desired regime can be problematic. I combined four distinct methods to develop and refine month-by-month and event-based flow recommendations to protect and partially restore the ecological integrity of the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins, Colorado. A statistical hydrologic approach was used to summarize the river's natural flow regime and set provisional monthly flow targets at levels that were historically exceeded 75% of the time. These preliminary monthly targets were supplemented using results from three Poudre-specific disciplinary studies. A substrate maintenance flow model was used to better define the high flows needed to flush accumulated sediment from the river's channel and help sustain the riparian zone in this snowmelt-dominated river. A hydraulic/habitat model and a water temperature model were both used to better define the minimum flows necessary to maintain a thriving cool water fishery. The result is a range of recommended monthly flows and daily flow guidance illustrating the advantage of combining a wide range of available disciplinary information, supplemented by judgment based on ecological principles and a general understanding of river ecosystems, in a highly altered, working river. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

  18. Lubrication regimes in lumbar total disc arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, A; Shepherd, D E T

    2007-08-01

    A number of total disc arthroplasty devices have been developed. Some concern has been expressed that wear may be a potential failure mode for these devices, as has been seen with hip arthroplasty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the lubrication regimes that occur in lumbar total disc arthroplasty devices. The disc arthroplasty was modelled as a ball-and-socket joint. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication theory was used to calculate the minimum film thickness of the fluid between the bearing surfaces. The lubrication regime was then determined for different material combinations, size of implant, and trunk velocity. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination operate with a boundary lubrication regime. A ceramic-ceramic material combination has the potential to operate with fluid-film lubrication. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination are likely to generate wear debris. In future, it is worth considering a ceramic-ceramic material combination as this is likely to reduce wear.

  19. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

  20. Doppler phase shifting using dual, switched phase shifting devices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutierrez, Roman C. (Inventor)

    2002-01-01

    A system of inducing a phase shift using moving reflector elements. The moving reflectors can be moving mirrors or an acousto-optical filter. The moving reflectors oscillate i.e. the move first in a first direction and then in a second direction. Two different reflectors are used so that the light can be switched between the reflectors. During a first portion of the cycle the light is coupled to the first modulator which moves the reflector in the first direction. The second modulator is out of phase with the first modulator, and the light is switched to that second modulator during a second portion of the cycle. The second modulator is also moving in the first direction when the light is applied thereto. In this way, the light obtains a constant direction Doppler shift.

  1. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  2. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A; Peterson, David L; Stephens, Scott L; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-02-01

    1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept - characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems - to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5.Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We conclude that

  3. Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

    2017-03-01

    Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community differentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

  4. Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

    2016-04-01

    Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community diff erentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

  5. Linking river flow regimes to riparian plant guilds: a community-wide modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Lytle, David A; Merritt, David M; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Olden, Julian D; Reynolds, Lindsay V

    2017-03-06

    Modeling riparian plant dynamics along rivers is complicated by the fact that plants have different edaphic and hydrologic requirements at different life-stages. With intensifying human demands for water and continued human alteration of rivers, there is a growing need for predicting responses of vegetation to flow alteration, including responses related to climate change and river flow management. We developed a coupled structured population model that coombines stage-specific responses of plant guilds with specific attributes of river hydrologic regime. The model uses information on the vital rates of guilds as they relate to different hydrologic conditions (flood, drought, and baseflow), but deliberately omits biotic interactions from the structure ("interaction neutral"). Our intent was to: 1) consolidate key vital rates concerning plant population dynamics and to incorporate these data into a quantitative framework, 2) determine whether complex plant stand dynamics, including biotic interactions, can be predicted from basic vital rates and river hydrology, and 3) project how altered flow regimes might affect riparian communities. We illustrated the approach using five flow-response guilds that encompass much of the river floodplain community: hydroriparian tree, xeroriparian shrub, hydroriparian shrub, mesoriparian meadow, and desert shrub. We also developed novel network-based tools for predicting community-wide effects of climate-driven shifts and deliberately altered flow regimes. The model recovered known patterns of hydroriparian tree vs. xeroriparian shrub dominance, including the relative proportion of these two guilds as a function of river flow modification. By simulating flow alteration scenarios ranging from increased drought to shifts in flood timing, the model predicted that mature hydroriparian forest should be most abundant near the observed natural flow regime. Multiguild sensitivity analysis identified substantial network connectivity (many

  6. Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinter, N.; Fiedel, S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

  7. Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinter, Nicholas; Fiedel, Stuart; Keeley, Jon E.

    2011-02-01

    Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

  8. 1s lamb shift in hydrogenlike uranium measured on cooled, decelerated ion beams.

    PubMed

    Stohlker, T; Mokler, P H; Bosch, F; Dunford, R W; Franzke, F; Klepper, O; Kozhuharov, C; Ludziejewski, T; Nolden, F; Reich, H; Rymuza, P; Stachura, Z; Steck, M; Swiat, P; Warczak, A

    2000-10-09

    The Lyman- alpha transitions of hydrogenlike uranium associated with electron capture were measured in collisions of stored bare U (92+) ions with gaseous targets at the storage ring ESR. By applying the deceleration technique, the experiment was performed at slow collision energies in order to reduce the uncertainties associated with Doppler corrections. From the measured centroid energies, a ground state Lamb shift of 468 eV+/-13 eV is deduced which gives the most precise test of quantum electrodynamics for a single electron system in the strong field regime. In particular, the technique applied paves the way towards the 1 eV precision regime.

  9. On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babin, A.; Mahalov, A.; Nicolaenko, B.; Zhou, Y.

    1997-01-01

    Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

  10. Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnstone, Jill F.; Allen, Craig D.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Frelich, Lee E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Mack, Michelle C.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.; Metz, Margaret R.; Perry, George LW; Schoennagel, Tania; Turner, Monica G.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological memory is central to how ecosystems respond to disturbance and is maintained by two types of legacies – information and material. Species life-history traits represent an adaptive response to disturbance and are an information legacy; in contrast, the abiotic and biotic structures (such as seeds or nutrients) produced by single disturbance events are material legacies. Disturbance characteristics that support or maintain these legacies enhance ecological resilience and maintain a “safe operating space” for ecosystem recovery. However, legacies can be lost or diminished as disturbance regimes and environmental conditions change, generating a “resilience debt” that manifests only after the system is disturbed. Strong effects of ecological memory on post-disturbance dynamics imply that contingencies (effects that cannot be predicted with certainty) of individual disturbances, interactions among disturbances, and climate variability combine to affect ecosystem resilience. We illustrate these concepts and introduce a novel ecosystem resilience framework with examples of forest disturbances, primarily from North America. Identifying legacies that support resilience in a particular ecosystem can help scientists and resource managers anticipate when disturbances may trigger abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems, and when forests are likely to be resilient.

  11. Microbial biogeochemistry of coastal upwelling regimes in a changing ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capone, Douglas G.; Hutchins, David A.

    2013-09-01

    Coastal upwelling regimes associated with eastern boundary currents are the most biologically productive ecosystems in the ocean. As a result, they play a disproportionately important role in the microbially mediated cycling of marine nutrients. These systems are characterized by strong natural variations in carbon dioxide concentrations, pH, nutrient levels and sea surface temperatures on both seasonal and interannual timescales. Despite this natural variability, changes resulting from human activities are starting to emerge. Carbon dioxide derived from fossil fuel combustion is adding to the acidity of upwelled low-pH waters. Low-oxygen waters associated with coastal upwelling systems are growing in their extent and intensity as a result of a rise in upper ocean temperatures and productivity. And nutrient inputs to the coastal ocean continue to grow. Coastal upwelling systems may prove more resilient to changes resulting from human activities than other ocean ecosystems because of their ability to function under extremely variable conditions. Nevertheless, shifts in primary production, fish yields, nitrogen gain and loss, and the flux of climate-relevant gases could result from the perturbation of these highly productive and dynamic ecosystems.

  12. Community dynamics of Pleistocene coral reefs during alternative climatic regimes.

    PubMed

    Tager, Danika; Webster, Jody M; Potts, Donald C; Renema, Willem; Braga, Juan C; Pandolfi, John M

    2010-01-01

    Reef ecosystems built during successive periods of Pleistocene sea level rise have shown remarkable persistence in coral community structure, but little is known of the ecological characteristics of reef communities during periods of low sea stands or sea level falls. We sampled the relative species abundance of coral, benthic foraminifera, and calcareous red algae communities from eight submerged coral reefs in the Huon Gulf, Papua New Guinea, which formed during successive sea level fall and lowstand periods over the past approximately kyr. We found that dissimilarity in coral species composition increased significantly with increasing time between reef-building events. However, neither coral diversity nor the taxonomic composition of benthic foraminifera and calcareous red algae assemblages varied significantly over time. The taxonomic composition of coral communities from lowstand reefs was significantly different from that of highstand reefs previously reported from the nearby Huon Peninsula. We interpret the community composition and temporal dynamics of lowstand reefs as a result of shifting energy regimes in the Huon Gulf, and differences between low and highstand reefs as a result of differences in the interaction between biotic and environmental factors between the Huon Gulf and Huon Peninsula. Regardless of the exact processes driving these trends, our study represents the first glimpse into the ecological dynamics of coral reefs during low sea level stands when climatic conditions for reef growth were much different and less optimal than during previously studied highstand periods.

  13. Optically Pumped Nuclear Magnetic Resonance in the Quantum Hall Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, S. E.; Khandelwal, P.; Kuzma, N. N.; Pfeiffer, L. N.; West, K. W.

    1997-03-01

    Optical pumping enables the direct detection of the nuclear magnetic resonance signal of ^71Ga nuclei located in an electron doped GaAs quantum well.footnote S. E. Barrett et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1368 (1994) Using this technique, measurements of the Knight shift (K_S)footnote S. E. Barrett et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 74, 5112 (1995) and spin-lattice relaxation time (T_1)footnote R. Tycko et al., Science 268, 1460 (1995) have been carried out in the Quantum Hall regimes. This talk will focus on our latest measurements of KS and T1 near Landau level filling ν=1, which extend our earlier results to higher magnetic fields (B=12 Tesla) and lower temperatures (T < 1 Kelvin). We will compare these results to the theoretical predictionsfootnote S. L. Sondhi et al., Phys. Rev. B 47, 16419 (1993); H. A. Fertig et al., Phys. Rev. B 50, 11018 (1994) that the charged excitations of the ν = 1 ground state are novel spin textures called skyrmions. The current status of this picture will be discussed.

  14. Emergent Phototactic Responses of Cyanobacteria under Complex Light Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Chau, Rosanna Man Wah

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Environmental cues can stimulate a variety of single-cell responses, as well as collective behaviors that emerge within a bacterial community. These responses require signal integration and transduction, which can occur on a variety of time scales and often involve feedback between processes, for example, between growth and motility. Here, we investigate the dynamics of responses of the phototactic, unicellular cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC6803 to complex light inputs that simulate the natural environments that cells typically encounter. We quantified single-cell motility characteristics in response to light of different wavelengths and intensities. We found that red and green light primarily affected motility bias rather than speed, while blue light inhibited motility altogether. When light signals were simultaneously presented from different directions, cells exhibited phototaxis along the vector sum of the light directions, indicating that cells can sense and combine multiple signals into an integrated motility response. Under a combination of antagonistic light signal regimes (phototaxis-promoting green light and phototaxis-inhibiting blue light), the ensuing bias was continuously tuned by competition between the wavelengths, and the community response was dependent on both bias and cell growth. The phototactic dynamics upon a rapid light shift revealed a wavelength dependence on the time scales of photoreceptor activation/deactivation. Thus, Synechocystis cells achieve exquisite integration of light inputs at the cellular scale through continuous tuning of motility, and the pattern of collective behavior depends on single-cell motility and population growth. PMID:28270586

  15. Anthropometric changes and fluid shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thornton, W. E.; Hoffler, G. W.; Rummel, J. A.

    1977-01-01

    In an effort to obtain the most comprehensive and coherent picture of changes under weightlessness, a set of measurements on Skylab 2 was initiated and at every opportunity, additional studies were added. All pertinent information from ancillary sources were gleaned and collated. On Skylab 2, the initial anthropometric studies were scheduled in conjunction with muscle study. A single set of facial photographs was made in-flight. Additional measurements were made on Skylab 3, with photographs and truncal and limb girth measurements in-flight. Prior to Skylab 4, it was felt there was considerable evidence for large and rapid fluid shifts, so a series of in-flight volume and center of mass measurements and infrared photographs were scheduled to be conducted in the Skylab 4 mission. A number of changes were properly documented for the first time, most important of which were the fluid shifts. The following description of Skylab anthropometrics address work done on Skylab 4 primarily.

  16. Lamb shift in muonic deuterium

    SciTech Connect

    Gorchtein, Mikhail; Vanderhaeghen, Marc; Carlson, Carl E.

    2013-11-07

    We consider the two-photon exchange contribution to the 2P-2S Lamb shift in muonic deuterium in the framework of forward dispersion relations. The dispersion integrals are evaluated with minimal model dependence using experimental data on elastic deuteron form factors and inelastic electron-deuteron scattering, both in the quasielastic and hadronic range. The subtraction constant that is required to ensure convergence of the dispersion relation for the forward Compton amplitude T{sub 1} (ν,Q{sup 2}) is related to the deuteron magnetic polarizability β(Q{sup 2}) and represents the main source of uncertainty in our analysis. We obtain for the Lamb shift ΔE{sub 2P-2S} = 1.620±0.190 meV and discuss ways to further reduce this uncertainty.

  17. Looping through the Lamb Shift

    SciTech Connect

    Hazi, A U

    2007-02-06

    Sometimes in science, a small measurement can have big ramifications. For a team of Livermore scientists, such was the case when they measured a small shift in the spectrum of extremely ionized atoms of uranium. The measurement involves the Lamb shift, a subtle change in the energy of an electron orbiting an atom's nucleus. The precision of the Livermore result was 10 times greater than that of existing measurements, making it the best measurement to date of a complicated correction to the simplest quantum description of how atoms behave. The measurement introduces a new realm in the search for deviations between the theory of quantum electrodynamics (QED), which is an extension of quantum mechanics, and the real world. Such deviations, if discovered, would have far-reaching consequences, indicating that QED is not a fundamental theory of nature.

  18. KVI Lamb-shift polarimeter

    SciTech Connect

    Beijers, J.P.M.; Kremers, H.R.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.

    2006-03-15

    The design and operation of a Lamb-shift polarimeter is discussed. This polarimeter is used to measure the polarization of proton and deuteron beams extracted from the KVI polarized-ion source. The major components of the Lamb-shift polarimeter (LSP) are described in some detail. These include the deceleration lens system, cesium neutralization oven, spin filter, metastable-atom detection system, and the solenoid. Typical operating parameters of the LSP will be given together with some representative spin-polarization measurements. The design criterion of measuring the polarization of a H{sup +} or D{sup +} beam within 60 s and with a statistical uncertainty smaller than 2% has been met.

  19. Multicolor Holography With Phase Shifting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vikram, Chandra S.

    1996-01-01

    Prototype apparatus constructed to test feasibility of two-color holographic interferometric scheme in which data for reconstructing holographic wavefront obtained with help of phase-shifting technique. Provides two sets of data needed to solve equations for effects of temperature and concentration. Concept extended to holography at three or more wavelengths to measure three or more phenomena associated with significant variations in index of refraction

  20. Shift and Scale Invariant Preprocessor.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-12-01

    1982 THESIS D V SHIFT AND SCALE INVARIANT ?PREPROCESSOR by Norman E. Huston, Jr. December 1981 0 Thesis Advisor: L. A. Wilson Approved for public...SCHOOL December 1981 Author: - . 4 ,/ A pp ro0ved by: rYY. ( Thesis Advisor Co-Ad isor Chairman, De artment of 4n n eing Dean of Science and...large range of problems/disciplines. Fields where it is particularly common include optical imagery, acoustic signal processing , radiology, radio

  1. Generalized phase-shifting color digital holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomura, Takanori; Kawakami, Takaaki; Shinomura, Kazuma

    2016-06-01

    Two methods to apply the generalized phase-shifting digital holography to color digital holography are proposed. One is wave-splitting generalized phase-shifting color digital holography. This is realized by using a color Bayer camera. Another is multiple exposure generalized phase-shifting color digital holography. This is realized by the wavelength-dependent phase-shifting devices. Experimental results for both generalized phase-shifting color digital holography are presented to confirm the proposed methods.

  2. Frequency shifts in gravitational resonance spectroscopy

    DOE PAGES

    Baeßler, S.; Nesvizhevsky, V. V.; Pignol, G.; ...

    2015-02-25

    Quantum states of ultracold neutrons in a gravitational field are characterized through gravitational resonance spectroscopy. This paper discusses systematic effects that appear in the spectroscopic measurements. The discussed frequency shifts-which we call the Stern-Gerlach shift, interference shift, and spectator-state shift-appear in conceivable measurement schemes and have general importance. Lastly, these shifts have to be taken into account in precision experiments.

  3. Strategies for brain shift evaluation.

    PubMed

    Hastreiter, Peter; Rezk-Salama, Christof; Soza, Grzegorz; Bauer, Michael; Greiner, Günther; Fahlbusch, Rudolf; Ganslandt, Oliver; Nimsky, Christopher

    2004-12-01

    For the analysis of the brain shift phenomenon different strategies were applied. In 32 glioma cases pre- and intraoperative MR datasets were acquired in order to evaluate the maximum displacement of the brain surface and the deep tumor margin. After rigid registration using the software of the neuronavigation system, a direct comparison was made with 2D- and 3D visualizations. As a result, a great variability of the brain shift was observed ranging up to 24 mm for cortical displacement and exceeding 3 mm for the deep tumor margin in 66% of all cases. Following intraoperative imaging the neuronavigation system was updated in eight cases providing reliable guidance. For a more comprehensive analysis a voxel-based nonlinear registration was applied. Aiming at improved speed of alignment we performed all interpolation operations with 3D texture mapping based on OpenGL functions supported in graphics hardware. Further acceleration was achieved with an adaptive refinement of the underlying control point grid focusing on the main deformation areas. For a quick overview the registered datasets were evaluated with different 3D visualization approaches. Finally, the results were compared to the initial measurements contributing to a better understanding of the brain shift phenomenon. Overall, the experiments clearly demonstrate that deformations of the brain surface and deeper brain structures are uncorrelated.

  4. Shift work and endocrine disorders.

    PubMed

    Ulhôa, M A; Marqueze, E C; Burgos, L G A; Moreno, C R C

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate the impact of shift and night work on metabolic processes and the role of alterations in the sleep-wake cycle and feeding times and environmental changes in the occurrence of metabolic disorders. The literature review was performed by searching three electronic databases for relevant studies published in the last 10 years. The methodological quality of each study was assessed, and best-evidence synthesis was applied to draw conclusions. The literature has shown changes in concentrations of melatonin, cortisol, ghrelin, and leptin among shift workers. Melatonin has been implicated for its role in the synthesis and action of insulin. The action of this hormone also regulates the expression of transporter glucose type 4 or triggers phosphorylation of the insulin receptor. Therefore, a reduction in melatonin can be associated with an increase in insulin resistance and a propensity for the development of diabetes. Moreover, shift work can negatively affect sleep and contribute to sedentarism, unhealthy eating habits, and stress. Recent studies on metabolic processes have increasingly revealed their complexity. Physiological changes induced in workers who invert their activity-rest cycle to fulfill work hours include disruptions in metabolic processes.

  5. Immanent conditions determine imminent collapses: nutrient regimes define the resilience of macroalgal communities

    PubMed Central

    Arthur, Rohan; Alonso, David; Pagès, Jordi F.; Pessarrodona, Albert; Oliva, Silvia; Ceccherelli, Giulia; Piazzi, Luigi; Romero, Javier; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2017-01-01

    Predicting where state-changing thresholds lie can be inherently complex in ecosystems characterized by nonlinear dynamics. Unpacking the mechanisms underlying these transitions can help considerably reduce this unpredictability. We used empirical observations, field and laboratory experiments, and mathematical models to examine how differences in nutrient regimes mediate the capacity of macrophyte communities to sustain sea urchin grazing. In relatively nutrient-rich conditions, macrophyte systems were more resilient to grazing, shifting to barrens beyond 1 800 g m−2 (urchin biomass), more than twice the threshold of nutrient-poor conditions. The mechanisms driving these differences are linked to how nutrients mediate urchin foraging and algal growth: controlled experiments showed that low-nutrient regimes trigger compensatory feeding and reduce plant growth, mechanisms supported by our consumer–resource model. These mechanisms act together to halve macrophyte community resilience. Our study demonstrates that by mediating the underlying drivers, inherent conditions can strongly influence the buffer capacity of nonlinear systems. PMID:28330920

  6. THE DYNAMIC REGIME CONCEPT FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic regimes of ecosystems are multidimensional basis of attraction, characterized by particular species communities and ecosystems processes. Ecosystem patterns and processes rarely respond linerarly to disturbances, and the nonlinear cynamic regime concept offers a more real...

  7. Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, J.; Molteni, F.

    1993-06-01

    A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting flow regimes that is firmly rooted in dynamical theory is presented and applied to the study of observed and modeled planetary-scale regimes of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  9. River Flow Regimes and Effective Discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basso, S.; Sprocati, R.; Frascati, A.; Marani, M.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of effective discharge is widespread in geomorphology and river engineering and restoration. For example, it is used to design the most stable channel configuration, to estimate sedimentation rate and lifespan of reservoirs and to characterize the hydrologic forcing in models studying long-term evolution of rivers. Accordingly, the effective discharge has been the focus of countless empirical, theoretical and numerical studies, which found it to vary among catchments as a function of climate, landscape and river morphology, type of transport (dissolved, suspended or bedload), and of streamflow variability. The heterogeneity of the effective discharge values observed in different catchments challenges a thorough understanding of its pivotal drivers, and a consistent framework which explains observations carried out in different geographic areas is still lacking. In the present work, the observed diversity is explained in terms of the underlying heterogeneity of river flow regimes, by linking effective discharge to attributes of the sediment rating curve and to streamflow variability, as resulting from climatic and landscape drivers. An analytic expression of the effective ratio (i.e. the ratio between effective discharge and mean streamflow) is provided, which captures observed values of effective discharge for suspended sediment transport in a set of catchments of the continental United States. The framework disentangles hydrologic and landscape controls on effective discharge, and highlights distinct effective ratios of persistent and erratic hydrologic regimes (respectively characterized by low and high flow variability), attributable to intrinsically different streamflow dynamics. Clusters of river catchments characterized by similar streamflow dynamics can be identified. The framework provides an opportunity for first-order estimates of effective discharge in rivers belonging to different areas, based on the type of flow regime.

  10. The discrete regime of flame propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew

    The propagation of laminar dust flames in iron dust clouds was studied in a low-gravity envi-ronment on-board a parabolic flight aircraft. The elimination of buoyancy-induced convection and particle settling permitted measurements of fundamental combustion parameters such as the burning velocity and the flame quenching distance over a wide range of particle sizes and in different gaseous mixtures. The discrete regime of flame propagation was observed by substitut-ing nitrogen present in air with xenon, an inert gas with a significantly lower heat conductivity. Flame propagation in the discrete regime is controlled by the heat transfer between neighbor-ing particles, rather than by the particle burning rate used by traditional continuum models of heterogeneous flames. The propagation mechanism of discrete flames depends on the spa-tial distribution of particles, and thus such flames are strongly influenced by local fluctuations in the fuel concentration. Constant pressure laminar dust flames were observed inside 70 cm long, 5 cm diameter Pyrex tubes. Equally-spaced plate assemblies forming rectangular chan-nels were placed inside each tube to determine the quenching distance defined as the minimum channel width through which a flame can successfully propagate. High-speed video cameras were used to measure the flame speed and a fiber optic spectrometer was used to measure the flame temperature. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained from a numerical model of a three-dimensional flame developed to capture both the discrete nature and the random distribution of particles in the flame. Though good qualitative agreement was obtained between model predictions and experimental observations, residual g-jitters and the short reduced-gravity periods prevented further investigations of propagation limits in the dis-crete regime. The full exploration of the discrete flame phenomenon would require high-quality, long duration reduced gravity environment

  11. Laboratory Exploration of Multiple Zonal Jet Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, C. A.; Speer, K. G.; Griffiths, R. W.

    2012-12-01

    The differentially heated, rotating annulus has classically been used to study wave interactions within a single, baroclinic jet. At high rotation rates, the baroclinic instability of the flow leads to a transition to a turbulent, eddy-dominated regime. In the presence of a topographic beta effect, the flow has been observed to produce multiple, meandering zonal jets that are qualitatively similar to those found in planetary atmospheres and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Our study builds on previous annulus experiments [1] by making observations further within this new regime. We observe with PIV and other techniques how the structure of the flow responds to changes in various parameters such as tank geometry, gradient in the Coriolis parameter, rotation rate, and differential thermal forcing. By not employing the more typical direct forcing of small scales, but by applying a large scale forcing over the annulus gap width, this study allows the varying effects of eddy scale selection, enstrophy cascade, etc. to naturally generate flow that more closely resembles planetary atmospheres and the ACC. We seek nondimensional parameters that significantly control zonation in a real fluid. These observations will provide a metric for the comparison of various theoretical models for multiple zonal jet formation. Other properties of the jets, such as their migration, meandering, bifurcation, and merging, can also be observed in an idealized situation and compared to numerical simulations. Ultimately, this will aid the testing and development of sub-grid-scale parameterizations for the multiple zonal jet regime that remain robust in the face of multiple forcing parameters. [1] Wordsworth, R. D., Read, P. L., & Yamazaki, Y. H. (2008). Turbulence, waves, and jets in a differentially heated rotating annulus experiment Physics of Fluids, 20(12), 126602.Streak photograph of suspended particles visualizing the flow representative of multiple zonal jets

  12. Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-02-01

    Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

  13. Efficiency of Rectification: Reversible vs. Irreversible Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, I. M.

    2002-11-01

    Both man-made locomotive devices and molecular motors use gears to transform a reciprocating motion into a directed one. One of the most common gears is a rectifier, a mechanically irreversible appliance. The maximal energetic efficiency of an isothermic gear is bounded by unity, as a consequence of the Second Law. However, approaching this ideal efficiency does not imply approaching reversibility. We discuss what properties of a rectifier mostly influence the transduction efficiency and show that an appliance which locks under backward force is just the one which can approach the ideal efficiency either in the reversible or in the irreversible regime.

  14. Bose Polarons in the Strongly Interacting Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Ming-Guang; Van de Graaff, Michael J.; Kedar, Dhruv; Corson, John P.; Cornell, Eric A.; Jin, Deborah S.

    2016-07-01

    When an impurity is immersed in a Bose-Einstein condensate, impurity-boson interactions are expected to dress the impurity into a quasiparticle, the Bose polaron. We superimpose an ultracold atomic gas of 87Rb with a much lower density gas of fermionic 40 impurities. Through the use of a Feshbach resonance and radio-frequency spectroscopy, we characterize the energy, spectral width, and lifetime of the resultant polaron on both the attractive and the repulsive branches in the strongly interacting regime. The width of the polaron in the attractive branch is narrow compared to its binding energy, even as the two-body scattering length diverges.

  15. Ultracold Molecules: Physics in the Quantum Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Doyle, John

    2014-11-17

    Our research encompasses approaches to the trapping of diatomic molecules at low temperature plus the cooling and detection of polyatomic molecules in the kelvin temperature regime. We have cooled and trapped CaF and/or CaH molecules, loaded directly from a molecular beam. As part of this work, we are continuing to develop an important trapping technique, optical loading from a buffer-gas beam. This method was invented in our lab. We are also studying cold polyatomic molecules and their interactions with cold atoms.

  16. Global oscillation regime change by gated inhibition.

    PubMed

    Romeo, August; Supèr, Hans

    2016-10-01

    The role of sensory inputs in the modelling of synchrony regimes is exhibited by means of networks of spiking cells where the relative strength of the inhibitory interaction is controlled by the activation of a linear unit working as a gating variable. Adaptation to stimulus size is determined by the value of a changing length scale, modelled by the time-varying radius of a circular receptive field. In this set-up, 'consolidation' time intervals relevant to attentional effects are shown to depend on the dynamics governing the evolution of the introduced length scale.

  17. Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Monleon, Vicente J.; Lintz, Heather E.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change. PMID:25634090

  18. Evidence of tree species' range shifts in a complex landscape.

    PubMed

    Monleon, Vicente J; Lintz, Heather E

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species' distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.

  19. The relationship between void waves and flow regime transition

    SciTech Connect

    Lahey, R.T. Jr.; Drew, D.A.; Kalkach-Navarro, S.; Park, J.W.

    1992-12-31

    The results of an extensive experimental and analytical study on the relationship between void waves and flow regime transition are presented, in particular, the bubbly/slug flow regime transition. It is shown that void wave instability signals a flow regime transition.

  20. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  1. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  2. Ecosystem regimes and responses in a coupled ancient lake system from MIS 5b to present: the diatom record of lakes Ohrid and Prespa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cvetkoska, A.; Jovanovska, E.; Francke, A.; Tofilovska, S.; Vogel, H.; Levkov, Z.; Donders, T. H.; Wagner, B.; Wagner-Cremer, F.

    2015-09-01

    In order to understand the panarchy and interactions since the last interglacial period in the oldest, most diverse and hydrologically connected European lake system, we assess changes in the diatom record and selected geochemistry data from Lake Ohrid's "DEEP site" core and compare it with the diatom and multi-proxy data from Lake Prespa core Co1215. Driven by climate forcing, tephra impact and/or human influence, the lakes experienced two adaptive cycles during the last 92 ka: "interglacial and interstadial-regime" and "glacial-regime". The patterns of regime shifts appear synchronous in both lakes, while differences occur in the inferred amplitudes of the variations. The deeper Lake Ohrid shifted between ultraoligo- and oligotrophic regimes in contrast to the more shallow Lake Prespa, which shifts from (oligo-) mesotrophic to eutrophic conditions. In response to external forcing, Lake Ohrid exhibits a high capacity to buffer disturbances, whereas Lake Prespa is much more resilient and "recovers" in relatively short time. This decoupling of the response is evident during the MIS 5/4 and 2/1 transitions, when Lake Ohrid displays prolonged and gradual changes. The lakes' specific differences in the response and feedback mechanisms and their different physical and chemical properties, probably confine a direct influence of Lake Prespa's shallow/eutrophic regimes over the productivity regimes of Lake Ohrid. Regime shifts of Lake Ohrid due to the hydrological connectivity with Lake Prespa are not evident in the data presented here. Moreover, complete ecological collapse did not happened in both lakes for the period presented in the study.

  3. Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

    2016-08-01

    In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than ~25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than ~25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant

  4. Post-Cold War Effects on the Non-proliferation Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Kessler, Carol E.

    2006-03-31

    This journal article analyzes nuclear and security related events of the past 15 years to illustrate the changes in geopolitics and the shifting balance of power following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reflection upon these events establishes the context for strengthening the nonproliferation regime. The author concludes that post Soviet communism hastened the movement towards a unipolar system with hegemonic power vested in the United States, and this geopolitical imbalance fostered insecurities and greater threats. Multilateral cooperation and commitment from the US would help this leader achieve its goal of security through increased global confidence in the international system.

  5. Pulse regime in formation of fractal fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, B. M.

    2016-11-01

    The pulse regime of vaporization of a bulk metal located in a buffer gas is analyzed as a method of generation of metal atoms under the action of a plasma torch or a laser beam. Subsequently these atoms are transformed into solid nanoclusters, fractal aggregates and then into fractal fibers if the growth process proceeds in an external electric field. We are guided by metals in which transitions between s and d-electrons of their atoms are possible, since these metals are used as catalysts and filters in interaction with gas flows. The resistance of metal fractal structures to a gas flow is evaluated that allows one to find optimal parameters of a fractal structure for gas flow propagation through it. The thermal regime of interaction between a plasma pulse or a laser beam and a metal surface is analyzed. It is shown that the basic energy from an external source is consumed on a bulk metal heating, and the efficiency of atom evaporation from the metal surface, that is the ratio of energy fluxes for vaporization and heating, is 10-3-10-4 for transient metals under consideration. A typical energy flux ( 106 W/cm2), a typical surface temperature ( 3000 K), and a typical pulse duration ( 1 μs) provide a sufficient amount of evaporated atoms to generate fractal fibers such that each molecule of a gas flow collides with the skeleton of fractal fibers many times.

  6. Variety of synchronous regimes in neuronal ensembles.

    PubMed

    Komarov, M A; Osipov, G V; Suykens, J A K

    2008-09-01

    We consider a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of oscillatory activity in neurons of the snail Helix pomatia. This model has a distinctive feature: It demonstrates multistability in oscillatory and silent modes that is typical for the thalamocortical neurons. A single neuron cell can demonstrate a variety of oscillatory activity: Regular and chaotic spiking and bursting behavior. We study collective phenomena in small and large arrays of nonidentical cells coupled by models of electrical and chemical synapses. Two single elements coupled by electrical coupling show different types of synchronous behavior, in particular in-phase and antiphase synchronous regimes. In an ensemble of three inhibitory synaptically coupled elements, the phenomenon of sequential synchronous dynamics is observed. We study the synchronization phenomena in the chain of nonidentical neurons at different oscillatory behavior coupled with electrical and chemical synapses. Various regimes of phase synchronization are observed: (i) Synchronous regular and chaotic spiking; (ii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting; and (iii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting with different numbers of spikes inside the bursts. We detect and study the effect of collective synchronous burst generation due to the cluster formation and the oscillatory death.

  7. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  8. Chemical Shift Anisotropy Selective Inversion*

    PubMed Central

    Caporini, Marc. A.; Turner, Christopher. J.; Bielecki, Anthony; Griffin, Robert G.

    2009-01-01

    Magic Angle Spinning (MAS) is used in solid-state NMR to remove the broadening effects of the chemical shift anisotropy (CSA). In this work we investigate a technique that can reintroduce the CSA in order to selectively invert transverse magnetization. The technique involves an amplitude sweep of the radio frequency field through a multiple of the spinning frequency. The selectivity of this inversion mechanism is determined by the size of the CSA. We develop a theoretical framework to describe this process and demonstrate the CSA selective inversion with numerical simulations and experimental data. We combine this approach with cross polarization (CP) for potential applications in multi-dimensional MAS NMR. PMID:19648036

  9. Phase-shifting Gabor holography.

    PubMed

    Micó, Vicente; García, Javier; Zalevsky, Zeev; Javidi, Bahram

    2009-05-15

    We present a modified Gabor-like setup able to recover the complex amplitude distribution of the object wavefront from a set of inline recorded holograms. The proposed configuration is characterized by the insertion of a condenser lens and a spatial light modulator (SLM) into the classical Gabor configuration. The phase shift is introduced by the SLM that modulates the central spot (dc term) in an intermediate plane, without an additional reference beam. Experimental results validate the proposed method and produce superior results to the Gabor method.

  10. Geometric phase shifting digital holography.

    PubMed

    Jackin, Boaz Jessie; Narayanamurthy, C S; Yatagai, Toyohiko

    2016-06-01

    A new phase shifting digital holographic technique using a purely geometric phase in Michelson interferometric geometry is proposed. The geometric phase in the system does not depend upon either optical path length or wavelength, unlike dynamic phase. The amount of geometric phase generated is controllable through a rotating wave plate. The new approach has unique features and major advantages in holographic measurement of transparent and reflecting three-dimensional (3D) objects. Experimental results on surface shape measurement and imaging of 3D objects are presented using the proposed method.

  11. Distinct transport regimes for two elastically coupled molecular motors.

    PubMed

    Berger, Florian; Keller, Corina; Klumpp, Stefan; Lipowsky, Reinhard

    2012-05-18

    Cooperative cargo transport by two molecular motors involves an elastic motor-motor coupling, which can reduce the motors' velocity and/or enhance their unbinding from the filament. We show theoretically that these interference effects lead, in general, to four distinct transport regimes. In addition to a weak coupling regime, kinesin and dynein motors are found to exhibit a strong coupling and an enhanced unbinding regime, whereas myosin motors are predicted to attain a reduced velocity regime. All of these regimes, which we derive by explicit calculations and general time scale arguments, can be explored experimentally by varying the elastic coupling strength.

  12. Option pricing with regime switching by trinomial tree method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Fei Lung; Yang, Hailiang

    2010-02-01

    We present a fast and simple tree model to price simple and exotic options in Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) with multi-regime. We modify the trinomial tree model of Boyle (1986) [12] by controlling the risk neutral probability measure in different regime states to ensure that the tree model can accommodate the data of all different regimes at the same time preserving its combining tree structure. In MRSM, the market might not be complete, therefore we provide some ideas and discussions on managing the regime switching risk in support of our results.

  13. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

    PubMed

    Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

    2010-11-17

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.

  14. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range

    PubMed Central

    Parajka, J.; Kohnová, S.; Bálint, G.; Barbuc, M.; Borga, M.; Claps, P.; Cheval, S.; Dumitrescu, A.; Gaume, E.; Hlavčová, K.; Merz, R.; Pfaundler, M.; Stancalie, G.; Szolgay, J.; Blöschl, G.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

  15. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, Matteo; Schindler, Anne; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Toreti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day succession of circulation patterns (i.e. the "weather regimes", or "weather types") over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examined the variability of occurrence frequency of weather types from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies related to this one. We found significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather types associated with the phase shifts of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

  16. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976–2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire–climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire–climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of

  17. Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology.

    PubMed

    Krebs, Patrik; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Talbot, Lee M; Conedera, Marco

    2010-06-01

    "Fire regime" has become, in recent decades, a key concept in many scientific domains. In spite of its wide spread use, the concept still lacks a clear and wide established definition. Many believe that it was first discussed in a famous report on national park management in the United States, and that it may be simply defined as a selection of a few measurable parameters that summarize the fire occurrence patterns in an area. This view has been uncritically perpetuated in the scientific community in the last decades. In this paper we attempt a historical reconstruction of the origin, the evolution and the current meaning of "fire regime" as a concept. Its roots go back to the 19th century in France and to the first half of the 20th century in French African colonies. The "fire regime" concept took time to evolve and pass from French into English usage and thus to the whole scientific community. This coincided with a paradigm shift in the early 1960s in the United States, where a favourable cultural, social and scientific climate led to the natural role of fires as a major disturbance in ecosystem dynamics becoming fully acknowledged. Today the concept of "fire regime" refers to a collection of several fire-related parameters that may be organized, assembled and used in different ways according to the needs of the users. A structure for the most relevant categories of parameters is proposed, aiming to contribute to a unified concept of "fire regime" that can reconcile the physical nature of fire with the socio-ecological context within which it occurs.

  18. Emergent Phototactic Responses of Cyanobacteria under Complex Light Regimes.

    PubMed

    Chau, Rosanna Man Wah; Bhaya, Devaki; Huang, Kerwyn Casey

    2017-03-07

    Environmental cues can stimulate a variety of single-cell responses, as well as collective behaviors that emerge within a bacterial community. These responses require signal integration and transduction, which can occur on a variety of time scales and often involve feedback between processes, for example, between growth and motility. Here, we investigate the dynamics of responses of the phototactic, unicellular cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC6803 to complex light inputs that simulate the natural environments that cells typically encounter. We quantified single-cell motility characteristics in response to light of different wavelengths and intensities. We found that red and green light primarily affected motility bias rather than speed, while blue light inhibited motility altogether. When light signals were simultaneously presented from different directions, cells exhibited phototaxis along the vector sum of the light directions, indicating that cells can sense and combine multiple signals into an integrated motility response. Under a combination of antagonistic light signal regimes (phototaxis-promoting green light and phototaxis-inhibiting blue light), the ensuing bias was continuously tuned by competition between the wavelengths, and the community response was dependent on both bias and cell growth. The phototactic dynamics upon a rapid light shift revealed a wavelength dependence on the time scales of photoreceptor activation/deactivation. Thus, Synechocystis cells achieve exquisite integration of light inputs at the cellular scale through continuous tuning of motility, and the pattern of collective behavior depends on single-cell motility and population growth.IMPORTANCE The photosynthetic cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. exhibits phototaxis that is dependent on the incident light wavelength through the action of various photoreceptors. In natural environments, cells experience a set of highly dynamic and complex light inputs, yet how cells transduce

  19. Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment

    SciTech Connect

    Loungani, P.

    1986-01-01

    Some recent research has taken the view that sectoral or industry-specific shocks significantly affect aggregate unemployment by increasing the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required. The empirical evidence for this view rests on the finding that during the 1950s - and again during the 1970s - there was a positive correlation between aggregate unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth rates. This thesis demonstrates that this correlation arises largely because oil price shocks affect both unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth. Once the dispersion due to oil shocks is accounted for, the residual dispersion in employment has very low explanatory power for unemployment. Since the dispersion index does not measure pure sectoral shifts, an alternate measure of dispersion is developed that serves as a better proxy for the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required each period. Estimates using this measure suggest that, during the 1950s, temporary increases in the relative price of oil were responsible for generating the observed correlation. On the other hand, sectoral shifts were important during the 1970s; in particular, the 1973 oil price increase has had significant reallocative effects on the economy. This contention is subjected to further tests by looking at the time-series behavior of employment in durable-goods industries and also by following the inter-industry movements of workers over time through the use of panel data.

  20. Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Cointegration and causal linkages among five different fertilizer markets are investigated during low and high market regimes. The database includes prices of rock phosphate (RP), triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and potassium chloride (PC). It is found that fertilizer markets are closely linked to each other during low and high regimes; and, particularly during high regime (after 2007 international financial crisis). In addition, there is no evidence of bidirectional linear relationship between markets during low and high regime time periods. Furthermore, all significant linkages are only unidirectional. Moreover, some causality effects have emerged during high regime. Finally, the effect of an impulse during high regime time period persists longer and is stronger than the effect of an impulse during low regime time period (before 2007 international financial crisis).

  1. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

  2. Shift register generators and applications to coding

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morakis, J. C.

    1968-01-01

    The most important properties of shift register generated sequences are exposed. The application of shift registers as multiplication and division circuits leads to the generation of some error correcting and detecting codes.

  3. Newtonian normal shift in multidimensional Riemannian geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Sharipov, Ruslan A

    2001-06-30

    An explicit description of all Newtonian dynamical systems admitting normal shift in Riemannian manifolds of dimension n{>=}3 is obtained. On this basis the kinematics of the normal shift of hypersurfaces along trajectories of such dynamical systems is studied.

  4. Understanding covariate shift in model performance

    PubMed Central

    McGaughey, Georgia; Walters, W. Patrick; Goldman, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Three (3) different methods (logistic regression, covariate shift and k-NN) were applied to five (5) internal datasets and one (1) external, publically available dataset where covariate shift existed. In all cases, k-NN’s performance was inferior to either logistic regression or covariate shift. Surprisingly, there was no obvious advantage for using covariate shift to reweight the training data in the examined datasets. PMID:27803797

  5. E-waste hazard: The impending challenge

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Violet N.

    2008-01-01

    Electronic waste or e-waste is one of the rapidly growing problems of the world. E-waste comprises of a multitude of components, some containing toxic substances that can have an adverse impact on human health and the environment if not handled properly. In India, e-waste management assumes greater significance not only due to the generation of its own e-waste but also because of the dumping of e-waste from developed countries. This is coupled with India's lack of appropriate infrastructure and procedures for its disposal and recycling. This review article provides a concise overview of India's current e-waste scenario, namely magnitude of the problem, environmental and health hazards, current disposal and recycling operations, existing legal framework, organizations working on this issue and recommendations for action. PMID:20040981

  6. Impending Bipolarity: Who’s With Us?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    by tests of nerve .”70 China is tightly controlled by a small group of Communist Party elites, but is not monolithic. They must govern a...Costa Rica.107 In its rather vague 2008 Strategy paper on Latin America, China states its goals are: 1) politically, to support each other and become

  7. Signs of an Impending Hard Disk Crash

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldborough, Reid

    2004-01-01

    If you have worked with computers for any length of time, you have undoubtedly heard the warnings and the recommendations. Data stored on PCs can disappear in a nanosecond. You need to back up any crucial data you cannot risk losing. Ideally, you should store at least one set of crucial back-up data off-site in case of a fire, flood or other…

  8. Impending conservation crisis for Southeast Asian amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Rowley, Jodi; Brown, Rafe; Bain, Raoul; Kusrini, Mirza; Inger, Robert; Stuart, Bryan; Wogan, Guin; Thy, Neang; Chan-ard, Tanya; Trung, Cao Tien; Diesmos, Arvin; Iskandar, Djoko T.; Lau, Michael; Ming, Leong Tzi; Makchai, Sunchai; Truong, Nguyen Quang; Phimmachak, Somphouthone

    2010-01-01

    With an understudied amphibian fauna, the highest deforestation rate on the planet and high harvesting pressures, Southeast Asian amphibians are facing a conservation crisis. Owing to the overriding threat of habitat loss, the most critical conservation action required is the identification and strict protection of habitat assessed as having high amphibian species diversity and/or representing distinctive regional amphibian faunas. Long-term population monitoring, enhanced survey efforts, collection of basic biological and ecological information, continued taxonomic research and evaluation of the impact of commercial trade for food, medicine and pets are also needed. Strong involvement of regional stakeholders, students and professionals is essential to accomplish these actions. PMID:20007165

  9. Impending failure detection for a discrete process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yubao

    1993-03-01

    Signals from a discrete process contain a strong modulation as a result of the discrete events in the process, such as paper passage in a recirculating document feeder (RDF). This paper presents a study of the methodology of process monitoring for a RDF system. A fault tree has been established that shows the cause-and-effect relationship regarding possible malfunctions of a RDF system. Critical components of the RDF system have been identified for condition monitoring. The signature from the measurements of position, vibration, vacuum pressure, and drive motor current have been analysed. A data separation scheme was used in signal processing to demodulate the strong signal component associated with paper passage. Unique index extraction algorithms based on time series analysis and modeling have been developed to detect failures of these components. A decision-making scheme based on multiple voting has been implemented.

  10. Stable operating regime for traveling wave devices

    DOEpatents

    Carlsten, Bruce E.

    2000-01-01

    Autophase stability is provided for a traveling wave device (TWD) electron beam for amplifying an RF electromagnetic wave in walls defining a waveguide for said electromagnetic wave. An off-axis electron beam is generated at a selected energy and has an energy noise inherently arising from electron gun. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide at a second radius. The waveguide structure is designed to obtain a selected detuning of the electron beam. The off-axis electron beam has a velocity and the second radius to place the electron beam at a selected distance from the walls defining the waveguide, wherein changes in a density of the electron beam due to the RF electromagnetic wave are independent of the energy of the electron beam to provide a concomitant stable operating regime relative to the energy noise.

  11. Dynamic Recrystallization: The Dynamic Deformation Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murr, L. E.; Pizaña, C.

    2007-11-01

    Severe plastic deformation (PD), especially involving high strain rates (>103 s 1), occurs through solid-state flow, which is accommodated by dynamic recrystallization (DRX), either in a continuous or discontinuous mode. This flow can be localized in shear instability zones (or adiabatic shear bands (ASBs)) with dimensions smaller than 5 μ, or can include large volumes with flow zone dimensions exceeding centimeters. This article illustrates these microstructural features using optical and electron metallography to examine a host of dynamic deformation examples: shaped charge jet formation, high-velocity and hypervelocity impact crater formation, rod penetration into thick targets (which includes rod and target DRX flow and mixing), large projectile-induced target plug formation and failure, explosive welding, and friction-stir welding and processing. The DRX is shown to be a universal mechanism that accommodates solid-state flow in extreme (or severe) PD regimes.

  12. Diffusive Transport Properties Across Coupling Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dharuman, G.; Murillo, M. S.; Verboncoeur, J.; Christlieb, A.

    2014-10-01

    Transport properties are poorly known across coupling regimes, therefore understanding them is of importance for theoretical and practical reasons. A useful tool is an ultracold plasma system because of the experimental capability to tune the system to attain Coulomb coupling Γ ranging from 0.1 to 1 to 10 with the screening parameter κ ranging from 0 to 4 to 8, spanning the regions of the phase diagram from weak to moderate to strongly coupled and screened systems. Strong coupling is possible if Disorder Induced Heating is mitigated which requires a correlated initial ion state. Of particular interest is Rydberg blockaded gas of ultracold atoms where the local blockade effect results in correlations. Predictions of higher coupling in ultracold plasma created from a Rydberg blockaded gas have been reported. In this work we examine the diffusive transport properties of ultracold plasma system using molecular dynamics simulations for experimentally realizable values of Γ and κ as discussed above.

  13. Evolution of the water regime of Phobos

    SciTech Connect

    Fanale, F.P.; Salvail, J.R. )

    1990-12-01

    In the present model of Phobos water regime evolution, a time-dependent solar insolation is influenced by both decreasing solar output over geologic time and the Mars and Phobos cycles of eccentricity and obliquity, which vary over 100,000-1,000,000 year time scales. The results presented address model cases which assume (1) a homogeneous distribution of water ice, and (2) a driving of water ice toward the surface by the internal thermal gradient near the poles. A two-dimensional model is used to compute temperatures, heat and vapor fluxes, and ice removal/deposition rates, for the case of uniform ice distribution throughout Phobos. The results obtained indicate that a substantial amount of vapor is produced within 1 km of the surface. 15 refs.

  14. Capillary underwater discharges in repetitive pulse regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Baerdemaeker, F.; Monte, M.; Leys, C.

    2004-03-01

    In this study a capillary underwater discharge, that is sustained with AC (50 Hz) voltages up to 7.5 kV, is investigated. In a capillary discharge scheme, the current is, at some point along its path between two submerged electrodes, flowing through a narrow elongated bore in a dielectric material. When the current density is sufficiently high, local boiling and subsequent vapour breakdown results in the formation of a plasma within this capillary. At the same time the capillary emits an intense jet of vapour bubbles. Time-dependent electrical current, voltage and light emission curves are recorded for discharges in solutions of NaCl in distilled water and reveal different discharge regimes, depending on the conductivity and the excitation voltage, ranging from repetitive microsecond discharge pulses to a quasi-continuous discharge with a glow-like voltage-current characteristic.

  15. Nonlinear regimes of forced magnetic reconnection

    SciTech Connect

    Vekstein, G.; Kusano, K.

    2015-09-15

    This letter presents a self-consistent description of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection in Taylor's model of this process. If external boundary perturbation is strong enough, nonlinearity in the current sheet evolution becomes important before resistive effects come into play. This terminates the current sheet shrinking that takes place at the linear stage and brings about its nonlinear equilibrium with a finite thickness. Then, in theory, this equilibrium is destroyed by a finite plasma resistivity during the skin-time, and further reconnection proceeds in the Rutherford regime. However, realization of such a scenario is unlikely because of the plasmoid instability, which is fast enough to develop before the transition to the Rutherford phase occurs. The suggested analytical theory is entirely different from all previous studies and provides proper interpretation of the presently available numerical simulations of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection.

  16. Multimode optomechanical system in the quantum regime.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, William Hvidtfelt Padkær; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Møller, Christoffer Bo; Polzik, Eugene S; Schliesser, Albert

    2017-01-03

    We realize a simple and robust optomechanical system with a multitude of long-lived (Q > 10(7)) mechanical modes in a phononic-bandgap shielded membrane resonator. An optical mode of a compact Fabry-Perot resonator detects these modes' motion with a measurement rate (96 kHz) that exceeds the mechanical decoherence rates already at moderate cryogenic temperatures (10 K). Reaching this quantum regime entails, inter alia, quantum measurement backaction exceeding thermal forces and thus strong optomechanical quantum correlations. In particular, we observe ponderomotive squeezing of the output light mediated by a multitude of mechanical resonator modes, with quantum noise suppression up to -2.4 dB (-3.6 dB if corrected for detection losses) and bandwidths ≲90 kHz. The multimode nature of the membrane and Fabry-Perot resonators will allow multimode entanglement involving electromagnetic, mechanical, and spin degrees of freedom.

  17. Multimode optomechanical system in the quantum regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hvidtfelt Padkær Nielsen, William; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Møller, Christoffer Bo; Polzik, Eugene S.; Schliesser, Albert

    2017-01-01

    We realize a simple and robust optomechanical system with a multitude of long-lived (Q > 107) mechanical modes in a phononic-bandgap shielded membrane resonator. An optical mode of a compact Fabry–Perot resonator detects these modes’ motion with a measurement rate (96 kHz) that exceeds the mechanical decoherence rates already at moderate cryogenic temperatures (10 K). Reaching this quantum regime entails, inter alia, quantum measurement backaction exceeding thermal forces and thus strong optomechanical quantum correlations. In particular, we observe ponderomotive squeezing of the output light mediated by a multitude of mechanical resonator modes, with quantum noise suppression up to ‑2.4 dB (‑3.6 dB if corrected for detection losses) and bandwidths ≲90 kHz. The multimode nature of the membrane and Fabry–Perot resonators will allow multimode entanglement involving electromagnetic, mechanical, and spin degrees of freedom.

  18. The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki

    For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  19. Environment Flow Assessment with Flow Regime Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, J.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2015-12-01

    To avoid worsen river and estuarine ecosystems cause by overusing water resources, environmental flows conservation is applied to reduce the impact of river environment. Environmental flows refer to water provided within a river, wetland or coastal zone to sustain ecosystems and benefits to human wellbeing. Environment flow assessment is now widely accepted that a naturally variable flow regime, rather than just a minimum low flow. In this study, we propose four methods, experience method, Tenant method, hydraulic method and habitat method to assess the environmental flow of base flow, flush flow and overbank flow with different discharge, frequency and occurrence period. Dahan River has been chosen as a case to demonstrate the assessment mechanism. The alternatives impact analysis of environment and human water used provides a reference for stakeholders when holding an environmental flow consultative meeting.

  20. Regime Changes in California Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero, E. C.; Kessomkiat, W.; Mauget, S.

    2008-12-01

    Annual and seasonal temperature trends are analyzed for California using surface data from the US Historical Climate Network and the larger COOP network. While trends in Tmax and Tmin both show warming over the last 50 years, the temporal and spatial structure of these trends is quite different. An analysis using Mann Whitney U statistics reveals that the patterns of warming and cooling from individual stations have a distinct temporal signature that differs between Tmax and Tmin. Significant cooling trends in Tmin are found between 1920-1958, while significant warming only starts after the 1970s. In contrast, Tmax trends show a more variable pattern of warming and cooling between 1920-1980, with California wide warming only occurring after 1980. These results suggest regime changes in California temperature trends that could only occur through large scale forcing. A discussion of the various forcing mechanisms contributing to California trends and their spatial and temporal variability will be presented.

  1. Anomalous Transport in the Superfluid Fluctuation Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchino, Shun; Ueda, Masahito

    2017-03-01

    Motivated by a recent experiment in ultracold atoms [S. Krinner et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113, 8144 (2016), 10.1073/pnas.1601812113], we analyze transport of attractively interacting fermions through a one-dimensional wire near the superfluid transition. We show that in a ballistic regime where the conductance is quantized in the absence of interaction, the conductance is renormalized by superfluid fluctuations in reservoirs. In particular, the particle conductance is strongly enhanced, and the conductance plateau is blurred by emergent bosonic pair transport. For spin transport, in addition to the contact resistance, the wire itself is resistive, leading to a suppression of the measured spin conductance. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations.

  2. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Ming-Tso; Amet, François; Ke, Chung-Ting; Borzenets, Ivan; Wang, Jiyingmei; Watanabe, Keji; Taniguchi, Takashi; Deacon, Russell; Yamamoto, Michihisa; Bomze, Yuriy; Tarucha, Seigo; Finkelstein, Gleb

    Combining superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect is a promising route for creating new types of topological excitations. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the quantum Hall regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has so far eluded experimental observation. Here we demonstrate the existence of a novel type of Josephson coupling through a QH region at magnetic fields as high as 2 Tesla. The supercurrent is mediated by states encompassing QH edge channels, which are flowing on opposite sides of the sample. The edges are coupled together by the hybrid electron-hole modes at the interfaces between the QH region and the superconducting contacts. These chiral modes, which share some features with Majorana modes, are formed when electron and hole edge states are mixed by the superconductor.

  3. Deterministic-random separation in nonstationary regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abboud, D.; Antoni, J.; Sieg-Zieba, S.; Eltabach, M.

    2016-02-01

    In rotating machinery vibration analysis, the synchronous average is perhaps the most widely used technique for extracting periodic components. Periodic components are typically related to gear vibrations, misalignments, unbalances, blade rotations, reciprocating forces, etc. Their separation from other random components is essential in vibration-based diagnosis in order to discriminate useful information from masking noise. However, synchronous averaging theoretically requires the machine to operate under stationary regime (i.e. the related vibration signals are cyclostationary) and is otherwise jeopardized by the presence of amplitude and phase modulations. A first object of this paper is to investigate the nature of the nonstationarity induced by the response of a linear time-invariant system subjected to speed varying excitation. For this purpose, the concept of a cyclo-non-stationary signal is introduced, which extends the class of cyclostationary signals to speed-varying regimes. Next, a "generalized synchronous average'' is designed to extract the deterministic part of a cyclo-non-stationary vibration signal-i.e. the analog of the periodic part of a cyclostationary signal. Two estimators of the GSA have been proposed. The first one returns the synchronous average of the signal at predefined discrete operating speeds. A brief statistical study of it is performed, aiming to provide the user with confidence intervals that reflect the "quality" of the estimator according to the SNR and the estimated speed. The second estimator returns a smoothed version of the former by enforcing continuity over the speed axis. It helps to reconstruct the deterministic component by tracking a specific trajectory dictated by the speed profile (assumed to be known a priori).The proposed method is validated first on synthetic signals and then on actual industrial signals. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on envelope-based diagnosis of bearings in variable

  4. Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

  5. Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate.

    PubMed

    Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Eric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

  6. Continuous-data FIFO bubble shift register

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, T. T.

    1977-01-01

    Simple loop first-in-first-out (FIFO) bubble memory shift register has continuous storage capability. Bubble shift register simplifies chip-control electronics by enabling all control functions to be alined at same bit. FIFO shift register is constructed from passive replicator and annihilator combinations.

  7. Mean shift is a bound optimization.

    PubMed

    Fashing, Mark; Tomasi, Carlo

    2005-03-01

    We build on the current understanding of mean shift as an optimization procedure. We demonstrate that, in the case of piecewise constant kernels, mean shift is equivalent to Newton's method. Further, we prove that, for all kernels, the mean shift procedure is a quadratic bound maximization.

  8. Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

  9. Optically Pumped Nuclear Magnetic Resonance in the Quantum Hall Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Sean E.

    1998-03-01

    Optical pumping enables the direct detection of the nuclear magnetic resonance signal of ^71Ga nuclei located in an electron doped GaAs quantum well.footnote S. E. Barrett et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1368 (1994) This OPNMR technique was previously used to measure the Knight shift (K_S)footnote S. E. Barrett et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 74, 5112 (1995) and spin-lattice relaxation time (T_1)footnote R. Tycko et al., Science 268, 1460 (1995) near Landau level filling ν=1, which provided the first experimental support for the theoretical predictionsfootnote S. L. Sondhi et al., Phys. Rev. B 47, 16419 (1993); H. A. Fertig et al., Phys. Rev. B 50, 11018 (1994) that the charged excitations of the ν = 1 ground state are novel spin textures called skyrmions. We have recently demonstrated that OPNMR is possible in fields up to B=12 Tesla, and temperatures down to T= 0.3 K, making it a viable new probe of the Fractional Quantum Hall Regime. In this talk we will present our latest OPNMR measurements near Landau level filling ν=1/3, which include the first direct measurement of the electron spin polarization at ν=1/3. The spin polarization drops as the filling factor is varied away from ν=1/3, indicating that the quasiparticles and quasiholes are not fully spin-polarized. We will also show how the NMR lineshape away from ν=1/3 changes dramatically at low temperatures, which is due to slowing of the electron dynamics, and a reduction in the motional narrowing of the NMR line. The current understanding of these results will be discussed.

  10. Flow regime change in an Endorheic basin in Southern Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worku, F. F.; Werner, M.; Wright, N.; van der Zaag, P.; Demissie, S.

    2014-01-01

    Endorheic basins, often found in semi-arid and arid climates, are particularly sensitive to changes in climatological fluxes such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, resulting in variability of river flows as well as of water levels in end-point lakes that are often present. In this paper we apply the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) to characterise change to the natural flow regime of the Omo-Ghibe basin in Southern Ethiopia. This endorheic basin is considered relatively pristine, with the basin being the main source of flow to Lake Turkana, the end-point lake in the East-African rift valley. The water level in Lake Turkana shows significant fluctuation, but an increasing trend can be observed over the past 20 yr. The reasons are currently not well understood. Of the five groups of metrics in the IHA, only those related to magnitude were found to show significant trends, with the main trend being the increase of flow during the dry season. This trend was not reflected in climatological drivers such as rainfall, evaporation, and temperature (which shows an increasing trend), but rather is attributed to the substantial changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) in the basin. The impact on the basin hydrology is apparent mainly in the more humid part of the basin. The significant shift from forest and woodland to grassland and cropland results in a decrease of actual evaporation and subsequent increase in (dry season) runoff. The long term trend of the increasing levels in lake Turkana are related to these trends in dry season flows, while shorter term fluctuations of the lake levels are attributed primarily to anomalies in consecutive wet and dry season rainfall.

  11. Flow regime change in an endorheic basin in southern Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worku, F. F.; Werner, M.; Wright, N.; van der Zaag, P.; Demissie, S. S.

    2014-09-01

    Endorheic basins, often found in semi-arid and arid climates, are particularly sensitive to variation in fluxes such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, resulting in variability of river flows as well as of water levels in end-point lakes that are often present. In this paper we apply the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) to characterise change to the natural flow regime of the Omo-Ghibe Basin in southern Ethiopia. Little water resource infrastructure has been developed in the basin to date, and it is considered pristine. The basin is endorheic and is the main source of flow to Lake Turkana in the East African Rift Valley. The water level in Lake Turkana shows significant fluctuation, but increase of its level can be observed over the past 20 years. The reasons are currently not well understood. Of the five groups of hydrological characteristics in the IHA (magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and variability), only those related to magnitude were found to show significant trends, with the main trend being the increase of flow during the dry season. This trend was not reflected in climatological drivers such as rainfall, evaporation and temperature (which shows a positive trend), but rather is attributed to the substantial changes in land use and land cover in the basin. The change in the basin hydrology is apparent mainly in the more humid part of the basin. The significant shift from forest and woodland to grassland and cropland results in a decrease of actual evaporation and subsequent increase in (dry season) runoff. The long-term trend of the increasing levels in Lake Turkana are related to these trends in dry season flows, while shorter-term fluctuations of the lake levels are attributed primarily to anomalies in consecutive wet and dry season rainfall.

  12. Ecohydrologic relationships of two juniper woodlands with different precipitation regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochoa, C. G.; Guldan, S. J.; Deboodt, T.; Fernald, A.; Ray, G.

    2015-12-01

    The significant expansion of juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodlands throughout the western U.S. during the last two centuries has disrupted important ecological functions and hydrologic processes. The relationships between water and vegetation distribution are highly impacted by the ongoing shift from shrub steppe and grassland to woodland-dominated landscapes. We investigated vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes occurring in two distinct juniper landscapes with different precipitation regimes in the Intermountain West region: A winter snow-dominated (Oregon) and a summer rain-dominated with some winter precipitation (New Mexico) landscape. Results from the Oregon site showed marginal differences (1-2%) in soil moisture in treated vs untreated watersheds throughout the dry and wet seasons. In general, soil moisture was greater in the treated watershed in both seasons. Canopy cover affected soil moisture over time. Perennial grass cover was positively correlated with changes in soil moisture, whereas juniper cover was negatively correlated with changes in soil moisture. Shallow groundwater response observed in upland and valley monitoring wells indicate there are temporary hydrologic connections between upland and valley locations during the winter precipitation season. Results from the New Mexico site provided valuable information regarding timing and intensity of monsoon-driven precipitation and the rainfall threshold (5 mm/15 min) that triggers runoff. Long-term vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes were evaluated based on pre- and post-juniper removal (70%) in three watersheds. In general, less runoff and greater forage response was observed in the treated watersheds. During rainfall events, soil moisture was less under juniper canopy compared with inter-canopy; this difference in soil moisture was intensified during high intensity, short duration rainstorms in the summer months. We found that winter snow precipitation helped recharge soil moisture

  13. Stark-shift based quantum dot-cavity electrometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsukanov, Alexander V.; Chekmachev, Vadim G.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we propose the scheme of an optical quantum sensor of external electric field which design based on a double quantum dot (DQD) placed in a high quality optical semiconductor microcavity (MC). The characteristic DQD frequencies of the observed nontrivial single-electron dynamics are determined using spectroscopic simulation in the steady-state regime. Due to Stark shifts of excited energy levels of DQD located at the edge of microdisk the hybrid electron-photon spectrum changes depending on the strength and direction of electric field. Probe laser with tunable wavelength excites the structure in single-photon regime and photon spectrum from MC is detected. We analyze the system's behavior with the use of a standard technique based on solving the Lindblad equation for the density matrix of an electron-phonon system with regard to the escape of photons from the cavity to the continuum and the relaxation of an excited electron with the emission of a photon or phonon. It will be shown that due to the design features, such a device has several advantages: high sensitivity, availability of different channels for excitation and measuring, the ability to accurately detect the spatial distribution of the field.

  14. Time evolution of the Lamb shift.

    PubMed

    Wang, Da-Wei; Li, Zheng-Hong; Wang, Li-Gang; Zhu, Shi-Yao; Zubairy, M Suhail

    2010-09-01

    The time evolution of the Lamb shift that accompanies the real photon emission is studied for the first time (to our knowledge). The investigation of the explicit time dependence of the Lamb shift becomes possible because the self-energy of the free electron, which is divergent, is subtracted from the Hamiltonian after a unitary transformation. The Lamb shift can then be separated into two parts: one is the time-independent shift due to the virtual photon exchange, and the other is the time-dependent shift due to the real photon emission. The time evolution depends on the nature of the coupling spectrum of the reservoir.

  15. Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2013-03-26

    Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

  16. Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2013-01-01

    Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. PMID:23479648

  17. Gear-shift mechanism for manual transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Fukuchi, H.

    1986-07-22

    This patent describes a gear-shift mechanism for a manual transmission comprising a housing for the transmission; a movable shaft mounted in place within the housing for both axial and rotary movements and being operatively connected to a manual shift lever to be axially shifted from its neutral position to a forward or reverse position in selecting operation of the manual shift lever and to be rotated at its shifted position in shifting operation of the manual shift lever; a shift-and-select lever fixed to an intermediate portion of the movable shaft; an interlock member rotatably mounted in place on the movable shaft and having a pair of interlock arms located at the opposite sides of the shift-and-select lever; means for restricting rotary movement of the interlock member and permitting axial movement of the same; a pair of resilient means for centering the movable shaft to retain the shift-and-select lever and the interlock member in their neutral positions; and first, second and third shift heads arranged in sequence within the housing.

  18. Reverse shift mechanism for automotive manual transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Inui, M.; Ogawa, S.

    1987-03-03

    A reverse shift mechanism is described for an automotive manual transmission of a type having a reverse idler gear which is movable to selectively complete a reverse gear train, the reverse shift mechanism comprising: a reverse shift arm having a portion disposed adjacent the reverse idler gear and pivotally carried with respect to a transmission casing so that the portion rocks along a direction of axis of the reverse idler gear in response to shifting operation. The portion of the reverse shift arm is provided with a blind hole which is open at a first end toward the reverse idler gear and is closed at a second end away from the reverse idler gear; and a shift arm shoe carried by the portion of the reverse shift arm adjacent the reverse idler gear for pushing the reverse idler gear. The shift arm shoe has an end adapted to engage with a circumferential groove formed in the reverse idler gear and an opposing end shaped to fit in the blind hole of the reverse shift arm; whereby the shift arm shoe is prevented from coming off during assembly by virtue of a vacuum effect created by air confined in the blind hole by fitting engagement between the opposing end and the blind hole, and is held in place after assembly by being clamped between the groove of the reverse idler gear and the blind hole of the reverse shift arm.

  19. Six temperature and precipitation regimes of the contiguous United States between 1895 and 2010: a statistical inference study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Wied, Olaf; Weithmann, Alexander; Regele, Tobias; Bailey, Barbara A.; Lawrimore, Jay H.

    2016-07-01

    This paper describes six different temporal climate regimes of the contiguous United States (CONUS) according to interdecadal variations of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation using the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) monthly data (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and precipitation) from 1895 to 2010. Our analysis is based on the probability distribution, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, and Welch's t test. The relevant statistical parameters are computed from gridded monthly SAT and precipitation data. SAT variations lead to classification of four regimes: 1895-1930 (cool), 1931-1960 (warm), 1961-1985 (cool), and 1986-2010 (warm), while precipitation variations lead to a classification of two regimes: 1895-1975 (dry) and 1976-2010 (wet). The KS test shows that any two regimes of the above six are statistically significantly different from each other due to clear shifts of the probability density functions. Extremes of SAT and precipitation identify the ten hottest, coldest, driest, and wettest years. Welch's t test is used to discern significant differences among these extremes. The spatial patterns of the six climate regimes and some years of extreme climate are analyzed. Although the recent two decades are the warmest among the other decades since 1895 and many hottest years measured by CONUS Tmin and Tmean are in these two decades, the hottest year according to the CONUS Tmax anomalies is 1934 (1.37 °C), which is very close to the second Tmax hottest year 2006 (1.35 °C).

  20. Mercantilist Development in Russia: The Legitimacy of State Power, State Identity, and the Energy Charter Regime (1990--2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruynooghe, Daniel; Wynn, Henry P.

    This dissertation investigates the creation, adaptation, and demise of international regimes. Specifically, I ask why international regimes sometimes fail to fulfill their original purpose. Empirically, I examine the evolution and eventual failure of the Energy Charter (ECH), a multilateral regime that governs the Eurasian energy economy. Modeled after the European Steel and Coal Community, the original goal of the regime was to capitalize on economic complementarities in energy to integrate Gorbachev's reforming USSR (later Russia) with Europe and promote pan-European cooperation and peace. By 2010, integration had failed, and the regime itself had become a source of conflict. To understand this outcome, I focus on the foreign energy policy of Russia, a central state within the ECH, which actively participated in designing the regime in the 1990s but two decades later decided that it was no longer in its interest. Using data collected from interviews and archival searches during field research in Russia, Brussels, and Paris, I find that under President Yeltsin, low domestic sovereignty meant the state could not integrate key domestic players into ECH policy-making. This led Russia to conclude a bargain that it could not implement domestically. Under President Putin, high domestic sovereignty meant the state had sufficient capacity to corral these recalcitrant actors. However, the new policy that emerged compelled Russia to attempt to modify the ECH in ways that violated previously accepted norms, thereby alienating its European partners and undermining the regime. This study supports Hegemonic Stability theory which suggests that we can expect regime failure after major shifts in the distribution of power produce changes in the interests and policies of key states. I extend this finding by showing that Russian state power increased due to changes in elite conceptions about the legitimacy of state power. I demonstrate this by using over time comparisons between

  1. The temporal dimension of regime shifts: How long can ecosystems operate beyond critical thresholds before transitions become irreversible?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background/Question/Methods: Ecosystem thresholds are often identified by observing or inducing slow changes in different driver variables and investigating changes in the asymptotic state of the system, such as the response of lakes to nutrient loading or biome responses to climate change. Yet ma...

  2. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hooijdonk, I. G. S.; Moene, A. F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H. J. H.; van de Wiel, B. J. H.

    2017-02-01

    The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin-Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

  3. Two regimes of widely tuneable noise-like pulses from a figure-eight fibre laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pottiez, O.; Ibarra-Escamilla, B.; Kuzin, E. A.; Hernández-García, J. C.; González-García, A.; Durán-Sánchez, M.

    2014-10-01

    In this paper we study a dispersion-managed figure-eight fibre laser generating noise-like pulses with adjustable characteristics. Non-self-starting mode locking leads to the formation of a single noise-like pulse circulating in the cavity. Both the duration of the pulse and its spectral width can be adjusted by tuning the angle of wave retarders, in particular a half-wave retarder that controls the switching power of the polarization-imbalanced nonlinear optical loop mirror that is used as mode locker. Wave retarder tuning also allows observing an abrupt transition between two clearly distinct noise-like pulse regimes, one characterized by a long (> 1 ns) rectangular pulse envelope with a narrow spectrum and the other characterized by shorter sub-ns bell-shaped pulses whose Raman-enhanced spectrum extends far beyond the doped fibre gain spectrum. The existence of two distinct noise-like pulsing modes can be understood in terms of the periodic variation of the pulse spectrum along the cavity, which is able to shift the effective dispersion regime of the laser. By joining the tuning ranges of each regime, the noise-like pulse duration can be adjusted between 57 ps and 6.3 ns, and its bandwidth between 3.5 and 59 nm.

  4. Consumers regulate nutrient limitation regimes and primary production in seagrass ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Allgeier, Jacob E; Yeager, Lauren A; Layman, Craig A

    2013-02-01

    Consumer-mediated nutrient supply is increasingly recognized as an important functional process in many ecosystems. Yet, experimentation at relevant spatial and temporal scales is needed to fully integrate this bottom-up pathway into ecosystem models. Artificial reefs provide a unique approach to explore the importance of consumer nutrient supply for ecosystem function in coastal marine environments. We used bioenergetics models to estimate community-level nutrient supply by fishes, and relevant measures of primary production, to test the hypothesis that consumers, via excretion of nutrients, can enhance primary production and alter nutrient limitation regimes for two dominant primary producer groups (seagrass and benthic microalgae) around artificial reefs. Both producer groups demonstrated marked increases in production, as well as shifts in nutrient limitation regimes, with increased fish-derived nutrient supply. Individuals from the two dominant functional feeding groups (herbivores and mesopredators) supplied nutrients at divergent rates and ratios from one another, underscoring the importance of community structure for nutrient supply to primary producers. Our findings demonstrate that consumers, through an underappreciated bottom-up mechanism in marine environments, can alter nutrient limitation regimes and primary production, thereby fundamentally affecting the way these ecosystems function.

  5. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century.

    PubMed

    Westerling, Anthony L; Turner, Monica G; Smithwick, Erica A H; Romme, William H; Ryan, Michael G

    2011-08-09

    Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972-1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (~12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100-300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire-climate-vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.

  6. Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

    2012-12-01

    In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and

  7. Evaluating temperature regimes for protection of brown trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armour, Carl L.

    1994-01-01

    Geographic distribution and population success of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are affected by temperature regimes. Concepts are presented for evaluating alternative temperature regimes for brown trout based on published temperature information and professional judgment. Temperature information from the literature is included for spawning runs, spawning, egg and larval development, growth, and other subjects. The objective is to aid biologists in evaluating alternative temperature regimes so as to select those that will protect and enhance environmental quality for brown trout.

  8. Paradigm shift in lead design.

    PubMed

    Irnich, W

    1999-09-01

    During the past 30 years there has been a tremendous development in electrode technology from bulky (90 mm2) to pin-sized (1.0 mm2) electrodes. Simultaneously, impedance has increased from 110 Ohms to >1 kOhms, which has been termed a "paradigm shift" in lead design. If current is responsible for stimulation, why is its impedance a key factor in saving energy? Further, what mechanism is behind this development based on experimental findings and what conclusion can be drawn from it to optimize electrode size? If it is assumed that there is always a layer of nonexcitable tissue between the electrode surface and excitable myocardium and that the electric field (potential gradient) produced by the electrode at this boundary is reaching threshold level, then a formula can be derived for the voltage threshold that completely describes the electrophysiology and electrophysics of a hemispherical electrode. Assuming that the mean chronic threshold for porous steroid-eluting electrodes is 0.6 V with 0.5-ms pulse duration, thickness of nonexcitable tissue can be estimated to be 1.5 mm. Taking into account this measure and the relationship between chronaxie and electrode area, voltage threshold, impedance, and energy as a function of surface area can be calculated. The lowest voltage for 0.5-ms pulse duration is reached with r(o) = 0.5 d, yielding a surface area of 4 mm2 and a voltage threshold of 0.62 V, an impedance of 1 kOhms, and an energy level of 197 nJ. It can be deduced from our findings that a further reduction of surface areas below 1.6 mm2 will not diminish energy threshold substantially, if pulse duration remains at 0.5 ms. Lowest energy is reached with t = chronaxie, yielding an energy level <100 nJ with surface areas < or =1.5 mm2. It is striking to see how well the theoretically derived results correspond to the experimental findings. It is also surprising that the hemispheric model so accurately approximates experimental results with differently shaped

  9. Shearing box simulations in the Rayleigh unstable regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauman, Farrukh; Blackman, Eric G.

    2017-01-01

    We study the stability properties of Rayleigh unstable flows both in the purely hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regimes for two different values of the shear q = 2.1, 4.2 (q = -dln Ω/dln r) and compare it with the Keplerian case q = 1.5. We find that the q > 2 regime is unstable both in the hydrodynamic and in the MHD limit (with an initially weak magnetic field). In this regime, the velocity fluctuations dominate the magnetic fluctuations. In contrast, in the q < 2 (magnetorotational instability (MRI)) regime the magnetic fluctuations dominate. This highlights two different paths to MHD turbulence implied by the two regimes, suggesting that in the q > 2 regime the instability produces primarily velocity fluctuations that cause magnetic fluctuations, with the causality reversed for the q < 2 MRI unstable regime. We also find that the magnetic field correlation is increasingly localized as the shear is increased in the Rayleigh unstable regime. In calculating the time evolution of spatial averages of different terms in the MHD equations, we find that the q > 2 regime is dominated by terms which are nonlinear in the fluctuations, whereas for q < 2, the linear terms play a more significant role.

  10. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.

    1980-01-01

    Film thickness equations are provided for four fluid-film lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts. These regimes are isoviscous-rigid; viscous-rigid; elastohydrodynamic lubrication of low-elastic-modulus materials (soft EHL), or isoviscous-elastic; and elastohydrodynamic lubrication of high-elastic-modulus materials (hard EHL), or viscous-elastic. The influence or lack of influence of elastic and viscous effects is the factor that distinguishes these regimes. The results are presented as a map of the lubrication regimes, with film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the viscosity and elasticity for three values of the ellipticity parameter.

  11. Varying Inundation Regimes Differentially Affect Natural and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate change is altering sea-level rise rates and precipitation patterns worldwide. Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to these changes. System responses to stressors are important for resource managers and environmental stewards to understand in order to best manage them. Thin layer sand or sediment application to drowning and eroding marshes is one approach to build elevation and resilience. The above- and below-ground structure, soil carbon dioxide emissions, and pore water constituents in vegetated natural marsh sediments and sand-amended sediments were examined at varying inundation regimes between mean sea level and mean high water (0.82 m NAVD88 to 1.49 m NAVD88) in a field experiment at Laws Point, part of the Plum Island Sound Estuary (MA). Significantly lower salinities, pH, sulfides, phosphates, and ammonium were measured in the sand-amended sediments than in the natural sediments. In natural sediments there was a pattern of increasing salinity with increasing elevation while in the sand-amended sediments the trend was reversed, showing decreasing salinity with increasing elevation. Sulfide concentrations generally increased from low to high inundation with highest concentrations at the highest inundation (i.e., at the lowest elevations). High pore water phosphate concentrations were measured at low elevations in the natural sediments, but the sand-amended treatments had mostly low concentrations of phosphate and no consistent pattern with elevation. A

  12. RF Profile Control for Sustained Plasma Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosea, J.; Bernabei, S.; Leblanc, B.; Majeski, R.; Menard, J.; Ono, M.; Phillips, C. K.; Schilling, G.; Wilson, J. R.

    1999-11-01

    For advancing plasma operation regimes for AT tokamaks and steady state concepts, as well as for forming and sustaining alternate concepts, it is necessary to provide control of the spatial profiles for the important plasma parameters - pressure, current, etc.. RF techniques offer considerable promise for providing this control and should be further developed as rapidly as possible within the well established tokamak program for forming a basis for application to all confinement concepts. Notably, IBW promises to provide internal transport barrier control if the coupling physics can be understood and efficient antenna coupling to the Bernstein wave can be developed. We will review the IBW experience and discuss possible explanations and solutions for the coupling problems encountered. In particular, the competing roles of parametric decay instability and surface mode excitation will be examined in order to elucidate the increase in surface power losses for the larger devices DIII-D and TFTR. Also, issues which need to be understood for employing ICRF and LH techniques to best advantage, such as antenna bombardment and energetic electron excitation, respectively, will be outlined.

  13. On spinfoam models in large spin regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Muxin

    2014-01-01

    We study the semiclassical behavior of Lorentzian Engle-Pereira-Rovelli-Livine (EPRL) spinfoam model, by taking into account the sum over spins in the large spin regime. We also employ the method of stationary phase analysis with parameters and the so-called, almost analytic machinery, in order to find the asymptotic behavior of the contributions from all possible large spin configurations in the spinfoam model. The spins contributing the sum are written as Jf = λjf, where λ is a large parameter resulting in an asymptotic expansion via stationary phase approximation. The analysis shows that at least for the simplicial Lorentzian geometries (as spinfoam critical configurations), they contribute the leading order approximation of spinfoam amplitude only when their deficit angles satisfy \\gamma \\mathring{\\Theta }_f\\le \\lambda ^{-1/2} mod 4\\pi {Z}. Our analysis results in a curvature expansion of the semiclassical low energy effective action from the spinfoam model, where the UV modifications of Einstein gravity appear as subleading high-curvature corrections.

  14. Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mo, Kingtse; Ghil, Michael

    1987-01-01

    A modified cluster analysis method was developed to identify spatial patterns of planetary flow regimes, and to study transitions between them. This method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and second to Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500 mb data. The dynamical model is governed by the fully-nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere. Clusters of point in the model's phase space are associated with either a few persistent or with many transient events. Two stationary clusters have patterns similar to unstable stationary model solutions, zonal, or blocked. Transient clusters of wave trains serve as way stations between the stationary ones. For the NH data, cluster analysis was performed in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters are found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, and transient clusters in the bandpass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band three pairs of clusters determine, respectively, EOFs 1, 2, and 3. They exhibit well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data show strong bimodality. Clusters in the bandpass window show wave-train patterns in the two jet exit regions. They are related, as in the model, to transitions between stationary clusters.

  15. Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Strauss, C. Kent; Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Gaines, Steven D.; Szuwalski, Cody S.; Cabral, Reniel B.; Rader, Douglas N.; Leland, Amanda

    2016-01-01

    Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits. PMID:27035953

  16. CSDP: The seismology of continental thermal regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Aki, K.

    1990-05-01

    This is a progress report for the past one year of research (year 3 of 5-year project) under the project titled CSDP: Seismology of Continental Thermal Regime'', in which we proposed to develop seismological interpretation theory and methods applicable to complex structures encountered in continental geothermal areas and apply them to several candidate sites for the Continental Scientific Drilling Project. The past year has been extremely productive especially in the area of interpretation theory, including the following two major break-throughs. One is the derivation of an integral equation for time-dependent power spectra, which unified all the existing theories on seismic scattering (including the radiative transfer theory for total energy and single and multiple scattering theories based on the ray approach) and offers more complete and economical solutions to the problems of seismic scattering and attenuation. The other is the new formula for synthetic seismograms for layered media with irregular interfaces, combining the T-matrix method for an arbitrary shaped inclusion and the method of global generalized reflection/transmission coefficients for layered media. Both breakthroughs will enable us to deal with seismic observations in complex earth structures more efficiently and accurately. In the area of experimental studies, we discovered seismic guided waves trapped in the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. 54 refs., 14 figs.

  17. Photon mirror acceleration in the quantum regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mendonça, J. T.; Fedele, R.

    2014-12-15

    Reflection of an electron beam by an intense laser pulse is considered. This is the so-called photon mirror configuration for laser acceleration in vacuum, where the energy of the incident electron beam is nearly double-Doppler shifted due to reflection on the laser pulse front. A wave-electron optical description for electron reflection and resonant backscattering, due to both linear electric field force and quadratic ponderomotive force, is provided beyond the paraxial approximation. This is done by assuming that the single electron of the beam is spin-less and therefore its motion can be described by a quantum scalar field whose spatiotemporal evolution is governed by the Klein-Gordon equation (Klein-Gordon field). Our present model, not only confirms the classical results but also shows the occurrence of purely quantum effects, such as partial reflection of the incident electron beam and enhanced backscattering due to Bragg resonance.

  18. Dealing with a Paradigm Shift

    PubMed Central

    Pack, Allan I.

    2015-01-01

    Recent changes in policies by insurance companies with respect to mandating home sleep apnea testing rather than in-laboratory studies have a large impact on the financial viability of clinical sleep centers. Coping with this disruptive change requires forward planning. First, it is important to be well positioned with respect to facilities so that these can be quickly downsized to control costs. There is also a need to develop, in advance, an accredited home sleep study program so that centers can respond to the rapidly changing environment. Following the change there is a need to control costs by rapidly downsizing the technology workforce. Technologists can be retrained for other essential roles. Centralizing the precertification process with knowledgeable, well-trained staff and a robust auditing process is an essential component. The approach taken at the University of Pennsylvania to this change is described as is how one can ensure continued financial viability of a comprehensive sleep center program in a major academic medical center. Citation: Pack AI. Dealing with a paradigm shift. J Clin Sleep Med 2015;11(8):925–929. PMID:26094918

  19. Shifting boundaries in professional care.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, A; Solomon, J; Abelson, J

    1996-07-01

    The nature of the work undertaken by different health professionals and inter-professional boundaries are constantly shifting. The greater knowledge of users of health care, and the increasing technical and organizational complexity of modern medicine, have partly eroded the control of health professionals over the substance of their work. The definition of a field of work as lying within the province of any one profession is culturally rather than scientifically determined. It is evident that care of good quality should be delivered at the lowest possible cost. This might include delivery of care by a less trained person than heretofore, or by someone with limited but focused training. Sharing of skills is a more sensible subject for discussion than transfer of tasks. We review a number of studies which show the effectiveness of inter-professional substitution in various care settings, and also the effectiveness of substitution by those other than health professionals. The views of users of health services on inter-professional substitution need to be considered. Health professionals and others need to work together to devise innovative ways of delivering effective health care. The legal issues need clarification.

  20. Shifting boundaries in professional care.

    PubMed Central

    Hopkins, A; Solomon, J; Abelson, J

    1996-01-01

    The nature of the work undertaken by different health professionals and inter-professional boundaries are constantly shifting. The greater knowledge of users of health care, and the increasing technical and organizational complexity of modern medicine, have partly eroded the control of health professionals over the substance of their work. The definition of a field of work as lying within the province of any one profession is culturally rather than scientifically determined. It is evident that care of good quality should be delivered at the lowest possible cost. This might include delivery of care by a less trained person than heretofore, or by someone with limited but focused training. Sharing of skills is a more sensible subject for discussion than transfer of tasks. We review a number of studies which show the effectiveness of inter-professional substitution in various care settings, and also the effectiveness of substitution by those other than health professionals. The views of users of health services on inter-professional substitution need to be considered. Health professionals and others need to work together to devise innovative ways of delivering effective health care. The legal issues need clarification. PMID:8774532