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Sample records for impending regime shift

  1. The detection of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information(presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  2. The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  3. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  4. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  5. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-10-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  6. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-10-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.

  7. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

    PubMed Central

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-01-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions—regime shifts—are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water–vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  8. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

    PubMed Central

    Spanbauer, Trisha L.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. PMID:25280010

  9. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  10. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A K

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise. PMID:27078387

  11. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D.; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  12. Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

    PubMed

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

  13. Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

    PubMed

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  14. Regime shifts in models of dryland vegetation.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Kinast, Shai; Yizhaq, Hezi; Bel, Golan; Meron, Ehud

    2013-12-13

    Drylands are pattern-forming systems showing self-organized vegetation patchiness, multiplicity of stable states and fronts separating domains of alternative stable states. Pattern dynamics, induced by droughts or disturbances, can result in desertification shifts from patterned vegetation to bare soil. Pattern formation theory suggests various scenarios for such dynamics: an abrupt global shift involving a fast collapse to bare soil, a gradual global shift involving the expansion and coalescence of bare-soil domains and an incipient shift to a hybrid state consisting of stationary bare-soil domains in an otherwise periodic pattern. Using models of dryland vegetation, we address the question of which of these scenarios can be realized. We found that the models can be split into two groups: models that exhibit multiplicity of periodic-pattern and bare-soil states, and models that exhibit, in addition, multiplicity of hybrid states. Furthermore, in all models, we could not identify parameter regimes in which bare-soil domains expand into vegetated domains. The significance of these findings is that, while models belonging to the first group can only exhibit abrupt shifts, models belonging to the second group can also exhibit gradual and incipient shifts. A discussion of open problems concludes the paper.

  15. Regime shifts in models of dryland vegetation.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Kinast, Shai; Yizhaq, Hezi; Bel, Golan; Meron, Ehud

    2013-01-01

    Drylands are pattern-forming systems showing self-organized vegetation patchiness, multiplicity of stable states and fronts separating domains of alternative stable states. Pattern dynamics, induced by droughts or disturbances, can result in desertification shifts from patterned vegetation to bare soil. Pattern formation theory suggests various scenarios for such dynamics: an abrupt global shift involving a fast collapse to bare soil, a gradual global shift involving the expansion and coalescence of bare-soil domains and an incipient shift to a hybrid state consisting of stationary bare-soil domains in an otherwise periodic pattern. Using models of dryland vegetation, we address the question of which of these scenarios can be realized. We found that the models can be split into two groups: models that exhibit multiplicity of periodic-pattern and bare-soil states, and models that exhibit, in addition, multiplicity of hybrid states. Furthermore, in all models, we could not identify parameter regimes in which bare-soil domains expand into vegetated domains. The significance of these findings is that, while models belonging to the first group can only exhibit abrupt shifts, models belonging to the second group can also exhibit gradual and incipient shifts. A discussion of open problems concludes the paper.

  16. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  17. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  18. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, J.; Yletyinen, J.; Biggs, R.; Blenckner, T.; Peterson, G.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  19. Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, G.; Conversi, A.; Chiba, S.; Edwards, M.; Fonda-Umani, S.; Greene, C.; Mantua, N.; Otto, S. A.; Reid, P. C.; Stachura, M. M.; Stemmann, L.; Sugisaki, H.

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

  20. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  1. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services. PMID:26286204

  2. Regime shifts in North Sea and Baltic Sea: A comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Möller, Caroline; Hänninen, Jari

    2012-12-01

    The ICES subdivisions in the North Sea (SD IIIa, SD IVa, and SD IVb) and the subdivisions in the Baltic Sea (SD 29, SD 27/28-2, and SD 25/26) are selected to compare the response in long term monitoring data (1970-2000) with respect to climate regime shifts. A modified AMOEBA model is applied to the data sets to identify the status and development of the North Sea and Baltic Sea system during two recent regime shifts. Biological regime shifts can be identified 1989/1990 in SD IIIa in the North Sea and in SD 25/26 in the Baltic Sea. A synchronous appearance of regime shifts could only be identified in the central and southern Baltic Sea for both regime shifts 1975/76 and 1989/90 where the AMOEBA model indicated a high similarity in ecosystem response. A clear difference was identified in the response of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability as well as regime shifts are driven in the Baltic Sea by direct atmospheric forcing only. In contrast, the changes in the North Sea are influenced by both the direct atmospheric forcing and the indirect forcing from the changes in North Atlantic. The fact that regime shifts as well as their synchronous appearance can be identified with the AMOEBA model might be of major interest for the management of sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services, the development of ecosystem approach to management and the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union (EU).

  3. Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Linares, Cristina; Dakos, Vasilis; van de Leemput, Ingrid A; van Nes, Egbert H

    2013-03-01

    Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun.

  4. Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Linares, Cristina; Dakos, Vasilis; van de Leemput, Ingrid A; van Nes, Egbert H

    2013-03-01

    Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun. PMID:22995893

  5. Connectivity, regime shifts and the resilience of coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmhirst, Toby; Connolly, Sean R.; Hughes, Terry P.

    2009-12-01

    Connectivity of larvae among metapopulations in open marine systems can be a double-edged sword, allowing for the colonization and replenishment of both desirable and undesirable elements of interacting species-rich assemblages. This article studies the effect of recruitment by coral and macroalgae on the resilience of grazed reef ecosystems. In particular, we focus on how larval connectivity affects regime shifts between alternative assemblages that are dominated either by corals or by macroalgae. Using a model with bistability dynamics, we show that recruitment of coral larvae erodes the resilience of a macroalgae-dominated ecosystem when grazing is high, but has negligible effect when grazing is low. Conversely, recruitment by macroalgae erodes the resilience of a coral-dominated ecosystem when grazing is low, leading to a regime shift to macroalgae. Thus, spillover of coral recruits from highly protected areas will not restore coral cover or prevent flips to macroalgae in the surrounding seascape if grazing levels in these areas are depleted, but may be pivotal for re-building coral populations if grazing is high. Fishing restrictions and the re-introduction of herbivores should therefore be a prime conservation objective for preventing undesirable regime shifts. Connectivity by some components of coral reef assemblages (e.g., macroalgae, pathogens, crown-of-thorns starfish) may be detrimental to sustaining reefs, especially where overfishing and other drivers have eroded their resilience, making them more vulnerable to a regime shift.

  6. Sensitivity of streamflows to hydroclimatic fluctuations: resilience and regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Botter, Gianluca; Basso, Stefano; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Landscape and climate alterations foreshadow global-scale shifts of river flow regimes. However, a theory that identifies the range of foreseen impacts on streamflows resulting from inhomogeneous forcings and sensitivity gradients across diverse regimes is lacking. In this contribution, we use a dimensionless index embedding simple climate and landscape attributes (the ratio of the mean interarrival of streamflow-producing rainfall events and the mean catchment response time) to discriminate erratic regimes with enhanced intra-seasonal streamflow variability from persistent regimes endowed with regular flow patterns. The proposed classification is successfully applied to 110 seasonal streamflow distributions observed in 44 catchments of the Alps and the United States, allowing the identification of emerging patterns in space and time. In the same framework, the impact of multi-scale fluctuations of the underlying climatic drivers (temperature, precipitation) on the streamflow distributions can be analyzed. Theoretical and empirical data show that erratic regimes, typical of rivers with low mean discharges, are highly resilient in that they hold a reduced sensitivity to variations in the external forcing. Specific temporal trajectories of streamflow distributions and flow regime shifts driven by land-cover change and rainfall patterns can be also evidenced. The approach developed offers an objective basis for the analysis and prediction of the impact of climate/landscape change on water resources.

  7. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  8. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

  9. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. PMID:26598217

  10. Unsustainable Groundwater Exploitation and Stochastic Regime Shifts: Converging Management Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Suresh; Park, Jeryang

    2014-05-01

    Increasing water security concerns arise from projected increases in competing freshwater demands, resulting from rapid urbanization, growing affluent population, and the need for increased production of food and bio-energy. These global trends in concert with the convergence of three groups of threats are likely to exacerbate freshwater security issues: (1) increasing dependency on effectively non-renewable groundwater ("peak water"); (2) increasing groundwater quality impairment("land-use intensification") from larger contaminant loads delivered from the vadose zone and surface water; and (3) increasing uncertainties in groundwater demand/supply from climate change ("stochastic risks"). Here, we present a conceptual framework for exploring water security threats, with a consideration of aquifers as complex hydrological systems with two stable states. Regime shifts in groundwater pumping -- from "sufficient" to "insufficient" -- result from changes in both internal system dynamics and external forcing from stochastic divers (non-stationary demands, hydro-climatic patterns). Examples from recent related work, in groundwater and surface water systems and ecosystems, are briefly reviewed as a prelude to presentation of model simulations of hypothetical scenarios of regime-shifts (tipping points) involving groundwater quantity and quality constraints. In addition to three types of widely recognized tipping points, we introduce a new type, stochastic tipping, that contributes to unexpected, undesirable regime shifts, resulting in inability to meet groundwater pumping needs, even when the perceived precariousness is small and the system is far from bifurcation point (deterministic tipping). Implications to sustainable groundwater management are discussed.

  11. Socioecological regime shifts in the setting of complex social interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiarto, Hendrik Santoso; Chung, Ning Ning; Lai, Choy Heng; Chew, Lock Yue

    2015-06-01

    The coupling between social and ecological system has become more ubiquitous and predominant in the current era. The strong interaction between these systems can bring about regime shifts which in the extreme can lead to the collapse of social cooperation and the extinction of ecological resources. In this paper, we study the occurrence of such regime shifts in the context of a coupled social-ecological system where social cooperation is established by means of sanction that punishes local selfish act and promotes norms that prescribe nonexcessive resource extraction. In particular, we investigate the role of social networks on social-ecological regimes shift and the corresponding hysteresis effects caused by the local ostracism mechanism under different social and ecological parameters. Our results show that a lowering of network degree reduces the hysteresis effect and also alters the tipping point, which is duly verified by our numerical results and analytical estimation. Interestingly, the hysteresis effect is found to be stronger in scale-free network in comparison with random network even when both networks have the same average degree. These results provide deeper insights into the resilience of these systems, and can have important implications on the management of coupled social-ecological systems with complex social interactions.

  12. Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

    2015-10-01

    Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

  13. Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christopher T; Uehlinger, Urs

    2008-03-01

    Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates

  14. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. PMID:27387951

  15. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

  16. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  17. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  18. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos.

    PubMed

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-08-28

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  19. Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests

    PubMed Central

    Lindenmayer, David B.; Hobbs, Richard J.; Likens, Gene E.; Krebs, Charles J.; Banks, Samuel C.

    2011-01-01

    We describe the “landscape trap” concept, whereby entire landscapes are shifted into, and then maintained (trapped) in, a highly compromised structural and functional state as the result of multiple temporal and spatial feedbacks between human and natural disturbance regimes. The landscape trap concept builds on ideas like stable alternative states and other relevant concepts, but it substantively expands the conceptual thinking in a number of unique ways. In this paper, we (i) review the literature to develop the concept of landscape traps, including their general features; (ii) provide a case study as an example of a landscape trap from the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of southeastern Australia; (iii) suggest how landscape traps can be detected before they are irrevocably established; and (iv) present evidence of the generality of landscape traps in different ecosystems worldwide. PMID:21876151

  20. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  1. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  2. Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

    PubMed Central

    Levin, Phillip S.; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.

  3. Contrasting energy pathways at the community level as a consequence of regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jun; Wen, Zhourui; Ke, Zhixin; Zhang, Meng; Zhang, Min; Guo, Nichun; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Xie, Ping

    2014-05-01

    Ecological regime shifts typically result in abrupt changes in ecosystem structure through several trophic levels, which leads to rapid ecosystem reconfiguration between regimes. An interesting aspect of the impact of regime shift is that alternative regimes may induce distinct shifts in energy pathways; these have been less tested than structural changes. This paper addresses this by using stable isotopes to establish the energy pathways in fish communities. We specifically focus on the impact of regime shift on changes of the energy pathways, and how the magnitude and direction of these changes affect the local community. We found that energy pathways significantly varied among the planktivorous, benthivorous, and piscivorous trophic guilds as a result of the alternative regimes. The regime shift from a clear to a turbid state altered the food web towards planktonic energy pathways and truncated food chain length, which is indicative of less ecological efficiency. This was confirmed by the adaptive foraging strategies of prevalent omnivores in the current communities. These structural and functional characteristics of trophic interactions might not facilitate classic trophic cascading effects in such a turbid regime and suppress the system's response to environmental changes, e.g., nutrient loading, and restoration efforts in turbid to clear water regime shifts.

  4. Out-phased decadal precipitation regime shift in China and the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Lichao; Fu, Zuntao

    2016-08-01

    In order to understand the changes in precipitation variability associated with the climate shift around mid-1970s, the precipitation regime changes have been analyzed over both China and the USA. Specifically, a new variable is designed based on Benford's Law (BL) to detect precipitation regime shift by using only the first digit information of the datasets. This new variable describes the decadal precipitation regime shift more directly and clearly than the traditional variables, such mean or trend of yearly precipitation amount. It is found that there is an obvious out-phased relation for precipitation regime shift over China and the USA, i.e., a significant shift from the lower to the higher BL's goodness of fit (weaker to stronger precipitation intensity) in the Southern China occurred in 1979, and a significant shift from the higher to the lower BL's goodness of fit (stronger to weaker precipitation intensity) in the USA occurred around 1978.

  5. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): Evidence of a recent regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczak, Maciej T.; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik; Maar, Marie; Støttrup, Josianne G.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is a eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and main outflow to the Kattegat in the east. We showed that from 1990 to 1995, the ecosystem structure shifted from dominance by demersal fish species (eelpout, whiting, flounder, plaice) to that of pelagic fish species (sprat, herring, sticklebacks), small-bodied fish species (black goby, pipefish), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance.

  6. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, C.; Cole, H.; Henson, S.; Yool, A.; Anderson, T. R.; de Mora, L.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Totterdell, I. J.; Allen, J. I.

    2015-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

  7. Making pore choices: repeated regime shifts in stomatal ratio

    PubMed Central

    Muir, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    Ecologically important traits do not evolve without limits. Instead, evolution is constrained by the set of available and viable phenotypes. In particular, natural selection may only favour a narrow range of adaptive optima constrained within selective regimes. Here, I integrate data with theory to test whether selection explains phenotypic constraint. A global database of 599 plant species from 94 families shows that stomatal ratio, a trait affecting photosynthesis and defence against pathogens, is highly constrained. Most plants have their stomata on the lower leaf surface (hypostomy), but species with half their stomata on each surface (amphistomy) form a distinct mode in the trait distribution. A model based on a trade-off between maximizing photosynthesis and a fitness cost of upper stomata predicts a limited number of adaptive solutions, leading to a multimodal trait distribution. Phylogenetic comparisons show that amphistomy is the most common among fast-growing species, supporting the view that CO2 diffusion is under strong selection. These results indicate that selective optima stay within a relatively stable set of selective regimes over macroevolutionary time. PMID:26269502

  8. Making pore choices: repeated regime shifts in stomatal ratio.

    PubMed

    Muir, Christopher D

    2015-08-22

    Ecologically important traits do not evolve without limits. Instead, evolution is constrained by the set of available and viable phenotypes. In particular, natural selection may only favour a narrow range of adaptive optima constrained within selective regimes. Here, I integrate data with theory to test whether selection explains phenotypic constraint. A global database of 599 plant species from 94 families shows that stomatal ratio, a trait affecting photosynthesis and defence against pathogens, is highly constrained. Most plants have their stomata on the lower leaf surface (hypostomy), but species with half their stomata on each surface (amphistomy) form a distinct mode in the trait distribution. A model based on a trade-off between maximizing photosynthesis and a fitness cost of upper stomata predicts a limited number of adaptive solutions, leading to a multimodal trait distribution. Phylogenetic comparisons show that amphistomy is the most common among fast-growing species, supporting the view that CO2 diffusion is under strong selection. These results indicate that selective optima stay within a relatively stable set of selective regimes over macroevolutionary time. PMID:26269502

  9. Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

  10. Resisting regime-shifts: the stabilising effect of compensatory processes.

    PubMed

    Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia

    2015-09-01

    Ecologists seem predisposed to studying change because we are intuitively interested in dynamic systems, including their vulnerability to human disturbance. We contrast this disposition with the value of studying processes that work against change. Although powerful, processes that counter disturbance often go unexplored because they yield no observable community change. This stability results from compensatory processes which are initiated by disturbance; these adjust in proportion to the strength of the disturbance to prevent community change. By recognising such buffering processes, we might also learn to recognise the early warning signals of community shifts which are notoriously difficult to predict because communities often show little to no change before their tipping point is reached. PMID:26190138

  11. Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yletyinen, Johanna; Bodin, Örjan; Weigel, Benjamin; Nordström, Marie C.; Bonsdorff, Erik; Blenckner, Thorsten

    2016-01-01

    Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs. PMID:26888032

  12. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, Claudie; Cole, Harriet; Henson, Stephanie; Yool, Andrew; Anderson, Tom; de Mora, Lee; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Butenschön, Momme; Totterdell, Ian J.; Icarus Allen, J.

    2016-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed-layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our results show that some ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, manifested as an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. Models from low to intermediate complexity simulate an abrupt transition in the late 1970s (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next) while the transition is smoother in higher complexity models. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region. These models can therefore be considered useful tools to enhance our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.

  13. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004-2008 US Housing Market Bubble.

    PubMed

    Tan, James; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  14. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

    PubMed Central

    Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  15. Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems.

    PubMed

    Perretti, Charles T; Munch, Stephan B

    2012-09-01

    Ecological regime shifts are rapid, potentially devastating changes in ecosystem state that last for extended periods of time. Previous theoretical work has generated numerous early-warning indicators of regime shifts, some of which have been empirically demonstrated in closed ecological systems. Here we evaluated a suite of indicators using a previously studied three-species model under conditions likely to be observed in field studies of open ecological systems. Simulations included large correlated fluctuations in extrinsic noise and a rapidly changing driving variable, while indicators were calculated using sparsely sampled time series. All indicators performed poorly under these conditions, particularly during the beginning of the regime shift. Overall, the best performing indicator was a rise in variance. Future research should focus on methods for setting benchmark values of early warning indicators and for identifying indicators that work for sparsely sampled data sets.

  16. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004-2008 US Housing Market Bubble.

    PubMed

    Tan, James; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.

  17. The Impending Crisis

    PubMed Central

    Kaplan, Raymond L.; Burgess, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    When you are ill and consult a physician for his or her expertise, many times laboratory testing is part of the clinical workup. This testing is critical to the physician’s ability to diagnose the patient’s condition. What if testing was not available … because there was no one to do the testing? Although seemingly far-fetched, this scenario could play itself out in the next ten years due to an impending manpower crisis in laboratory medicine. The profession of Medical Technology, also known as Clinical Laboratory Science, is experiencing a shortage of qualified individuals for a variety of reasons – not the least of which is the closure of almost 70% of the schools teaching this critical profession. Health care workers (HCW) rely on accurate and timely clinical laboratory results in order to make decisions for their patients. Because ∼ 70% of patient care decisions are based on clinical laboratory results, it is important to have a well-trained supply of laboratory professionals. This article will give an overview of the situation and the possible causes of this shortage, and pose challenges to our profession as to how this crisis can be averted. Visibility of this profession must be a prime focus of this effort in order for the population in general to be aware of the role Clinical Laboratory Scientists play in the health care consortium. This effort should begin early in the educational process, potentially as early as Middle School (junior high school), bringing awareness of the profession not only to students but to educators as well. PMID:23653714

  18. Shifts in meteorological regime of the late winter and early spring in Estonia during recent decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keevallik, Sirje

    2011-08-01

    Wind, temperature and precipitation measurements at Vilsandi (the westernmost island of Estonia) and Tiirikoja (on the western coast of Lake Peipsi) collected during 1966-2005 were used to detect trends and regime shifts in monthly mean averages. A similar analysis was carried out for wind components in the free atmosphere calculated from aerological soundings. An abrupt increase in the upper-air zonal wind component around 1987 was detected in January and February over North-East Europe that may form a significant part of the intensification of the western flow. This increase is accompanied by a shift in the meteorological regime near the surface over a wider area. In March, the regime shift in the upper air flow that has taken place in the middle of the 1990s is not reflected in the meteorological parameters at the surface. Besides the regime shift at the end of the 1980s, also shifts in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginning of the 2000s are suggested.

  19. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  20. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2015-04-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is that the global atmospheric planetary waves can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the most recent 59-year period (1950-2008) have been identified based on Student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. The global forcing mechanism is described with a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate that examining the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries is a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from longwave (relatively smooth and less complex) to shorter

  1. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2014-08-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is the global atmospheric planetary waves that can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the recent 59 years (1950-2008) have been identified based on student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. Due to the multidisciplinary audience, the global forcing mechanism is described from a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from long wave (relatively smooth and less complex) to

  2. Detecting regime shifts in marine systems with limited biological data: An example from southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzow, Michael A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Frusher, Stewart D.; Dann, Peter; Tuck, Geoffrey N.

    2016-02-01

    The ability to detect ecological regime shifts in a data-limited setting was investigated, using southeast Australian ecosystems as a model. Community variability was summarized for 1968-2008 with the first two principal components (PCs) of recruitment estimates for six fish stocks and reproductive parameters for four seabird species; regional climate was summarized for 1953-2008 with the first two PCs for three parameters (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity, surface nitrate) measured at two stations; and basin-scale climate variability was summarized for 1950-2012 with mean South Pacific SST and the first two PCs of detrended South Pacific SST. The first two biology PCs explained 45% of total community variability. The first two PCs of basin-scale SST showed abrupt shifts similar to "regime" behavior observed in other ocean basins, and the first PC of basin-scale SST showed significant covariation with the first PC of regional climate. Together, these results are consistent with the strong community variability and decadal-scale red noise climatic variability associated with Northern Hemisphere regime shifts. However, statistical model selection showed that the first two PCs of regional climate and the first PC of biology time series all exhibited linear change, rather than abrupt shifts. This result is consistent with previous studies documenting rapid linear change in the climate and biology of southeast Australian shelf ecosystems, and we conclude that there is no evidence for regime shift behavior in the region's ecology. However, analysis of a large set of previously-published biological time series from the North Pacific (n = 64) suggests that studies using fewer than ∼30 biological time series, such as this one, may be unable to detect regime shifts. Thus we conclude that the nature of ecological variability in the region cannot be determined with available data. The development of additional long-term biological observations is needed

  3. Regime-shifting streamflow processes: Implications for water supply reservoir operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the extent to which regime-like behavior in streamflow time series impacts reservoir operating policy performance. We begin by incorporating a regime state variable into a well-established stochastic dynamic programming model. We then simulate and compare optimized release policies—with and without the regime state variable—to understand how regime shifts affect operating performance in terms of meeting water delivery targets. Our optimization approach uses a Hidden Markov Model to partition the streamflow time series into a small number of separate regime states. The streamflow persistence structures associated with each state define separate month-to-month streamflow transition probability matrices for computing penalty cost expectations within the optimization procedure. The algorithm generates a four-dimensional array of release decisions conditioned on the within-year time period, reservoir storage state, inflow class, and underlying regime state. Our computational experiment is executed on 99 distinct, hypothetical water supply reservoirs fashioned from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Hydrologic Reference Stations. Results show that regime-like behavior is a major cause of suboptimal operations in water supply reservoirs; conventional techniques for optimal policy design may misguide the operator, particularly in regions susceptible to multiyear drought. Stationary streamflow models that allow for regime-like behavior can be incorporated into traditional stochastic optimization models to enhance the flexibility of operations.

  4. Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982-2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982-1996 and 2000-2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997-1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

  5. Different delays-induced regime shifts in a stochastic insect outbreak dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Jiakui; Zeng, Chunhua; Xie, Qingshuang; Guan, Lin; Dong, Xiaohui; Yang, Fengzao

    2016-11-01

    Considering time delays in the deterministic and stochastic forces, we construct stochastic delayed differential equations to investigate the regime shifts in an insect ecosystem. The stationary probability distribution (SPD) and mean first passage time (MFPT) are obtained, respectively. Our main results show: (i) The multiplicative noise, positive cross-correlation noise between two noises and time delays can induce the regime shifts from the boom outbreak state to the bust one, but the additive noise and negative cross-correlation can induce the regime shifts from the bust outbreak state to the boom one; (ii) For the negative cross-correlation, the MFPT as a function of noise strengths exhibits one maximum, which shows the characteristic of the noise-delayed switching for the boom outbreak state, but for the no cross-correlation or positive cross-correlation, the MFPT decreases with the noise strengths; (iii) Two different types of time delays play same roles on the maximal MFPT with additive noise, and play opposite roles on the maximal MFPT with multiplicative noise. The mechanisms for noises-and delays-induced regime shifts between two states can be explained physically through the effective potential of ecological model.

  6. Ecological resilience of population cycles: a dynamic perspective of regime shift.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Kenta; Yoshida, Takehito

    2015-04-01

    Studies of catastrophic regime shifts have mostly considered a simple equilibrium situation, in which there are two stable equilibria divided by an unstable equilibrium. However, populations and communities in nature often show more complex dynamics, and regime shifts in the complex dynamic systems have attracted limited attention so far. Understanding the division between alternative stable states in multispecies communities requires an extended perspective and the conventional analysis of a simple equilibrium situation cannot be applied as it is. What divides the alternative stable states can take complex structure rather than a point, and this division of alternative states is usually impossible to be obtained by analytical approaches. In this study, we developed a numerical method that can relatively easily provide the structure of the division of alternative stable states. We then applied the method to different three-species systems exhibiting oscillatory dynamics to understand their recoverability from perturbations that can bring out irreversible state change. Our results suggested that there is temporal variation of the recoverability that may not be understood straightforwardly because of the complex structure of the division of alternative stable states. Also, which of the alternative states is more vulnerable to perturbations and easier to show a regime shift can vary depending on the size of perturbation. These attributes of regime shifts have not been found in a simple equilibrium situation, suggesting the need of a dynamic aspect of the recoverability of ecological systems.

  7. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  8. Crossing the Threshold - Reviewed Evidence for Regime Shifts in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård Karlsson, J.; Destouni, G.; Peterson, G.; Gordon, L.

    2009-12-01

    The Arctic is rapidly changing, and the Arctic terrestrial ecosystems may respond to changing conditions in different ways. We review the evidence of regime shifts (ecosystem change from one set of mutually reinforcing feedbacks to another) in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems in relation to the hydrological cycle, as part of a larger interdisciplinary research project on Pan-Arctic ice-water-biogeochemical system responses and social-ecological resilience effects in a warming climate, which has in turn been part of the International Polar Year project Arctic-HYDRA. Such regime shifts may have implications for the Earth system as a whole, through changes in water flows and energy balance that yield feedbacks to hydrology and the local and global climate. Because the presence or absence of permafrost is a main control on local hydrological processes in the Arctic, we use the ecological response to permafrost warming to define three types of regime shifts: 1) Conversion of aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems due to draining of lakes and wetlands caused by permafrost degradation and thermokarst processes, which may have a large impact on local people and animals that depend on these ecosystems for food, domestic needs, and habitat, and on climate as the water conditions influence the direction of CO2 exchange. 2) Conversion of terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems as forests are being replaced by wet sedge meadows, bogs, and thermokarst ponds that favor aquatic birds and mammals, as thawing permafrost atop continuous permafrost undermines and destroys the root zone, leading to collapse and death of the trees. 3) Shifts in terrestrial ecosystems due to transition from tundra to shrubland and/or forest, caused by warming of air and soil, resulting in increased surface energy exchanges and albedo, which may in turn feed back to enhanced warming at the local-regional scale. We compare the impact, scale and key processes for each of these regime shifts, and assess the degree to

  9. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-01

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  10. Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chang Ik; Lee, Jae Bong; Kim, Suam; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2000-10-01

    There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987-89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.

  11. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  12. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R; Stow, Craig A; Sundstrom, Shana M

    2016-06-29

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. PMID:27335415

  13. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2012-01-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  14. Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands.

    PubMed

    Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hashizume, Masahiro; Satake, Akiko; Minakawa, Noboru

    2012-01-01

    Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.

  15. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant.

  16. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

  17. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation. PMID:26132268

  18. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation. PMID:26132268

  19. Regime-shifts in the southern Benguela shelf and inshore region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blamey, Laura K.; Howard, James A. E.; Agenbag, Jacobus; Jarre, Astrid

    2012-11-01

    Over the past two decades, several species have undergone distributional shifts in the southern Benguela. The commercially-important West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii is one of these, and its shift in distribution has had profound effects on the rest of the ecosystem along the south-west coast. Reasons for these shifts are not fully understood, but are probably linked to changes in environmental conditions. We applied a sequential t-test algorithm for analyzing regime shifts (STARS) to physical (wind and upwelling) and biological (rock-lobster catch and growth, Bank Cormorant abundance) data for the southern Benguela inshore region and performed sensitivity tests on each of the variables. Regime shifts were defined as ‘robust’ or ‘possible’ if they were detected for ⩾70% or ⩾60% of the sensitivity tests respectively. To corroborate the shifts detected by STARS, we then applied two additional methods: change point analysis and the Chow breakpoint test. The STARS method outperformed the other two methods because it could handle shorter time series and detect shifts towards the end of the time series, but most of the significant shifts detected by STARS were also detected by one or both of the other methods. A significant shift in Cape Point winter winds occurred in 1983, an El Niño year. However, measurement methodology changed during the same period and this is discussed in relation to the shift. A decline in rock-lobster growth rate occurred in the mid 1980s, and significant increases in upwelling variability and mean summer winds were detected in the early-to-mid 1990s - the same period in which rock lobster abundance underwent an eastward shift, declining on the west coast and increasing on the south-west coast. Bank Cormorants underwent respective declines and increases in the mid-to-late 1990s on the west and south-west coasts following the shift in lobsters. Further shifts in mean wind and upwelling were detected in the 2000s. These results

  20. Verification of a decadal prediction for the tropical Pacific and a discourse on regime shifts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cane, M. A.; Karspeck, A. R.; Seager, R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2004 we published a prediction claiming that for the 15 years 1999-2013 the tropical Pacific SST would be relatively cool, clearly colder than the preceding warm period of 1976-1998. We here present the verification of that decade-plus forecast. The prediction, which was successful, was made with the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) intermediate model, and thereby suggests that the tropics alone may account for what predictability there is. Even in idealized model studies the predictability we find is probably too small to be a usable improvement over climatology. More broadly, sequences of variability in the ZC model exhibit shifts in the time-mean state of the eastern equatorial Pacific resembling observed 'regime shifts', which supports the hypothesis that the source of tropical Pacific decadal variability is local to the tropics. We further suggest that decadal 'regime' behavior points to climate chaos rather than climate noise. Unless they are forced.

  1. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, Kelton W.; McCarthy, Matthew D.; Sherwood, Owen A.; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ13C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

  2. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. PMID:26612834

  3. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

  4. Regime Shifts in Lakes: Organic Carbon Dynamics and Whole Ecosystem Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of using sediment records to identify regime shifts in lakes has largely focussed on biological proxies, such as diatoms and chironomids. In this approach, long-term records of rapid ecological change are compared with independent proxies of the variables driving ecosystem change, for example, climate or catchment disturbance processes (hydrological budgets, deforestation, fire etc.). One of the main problems with this approach is that the sediment cores upon which the data analyses are made are taken from the central part of lakes, often at the deepest point. As a result, the ecological changes observed reflect pelagic (open water) processes rather than whole-lake responses. As most lakes (apart from hypertrophic systems) are dominated by benthic production it is unclear whether palaeolimnological assessments of regime shifts are representative of the whole lake response. Theoretically, this question can be addressed simply by using cores from shallow water. There are a number of problems with this approach, most notably the loss of temporal resolution in shallow water cores (due to the slower sediment accumulation rate) and the different biological assemblages in the shallow water (littoral) cores. There is a strong effect of water depth on the zonation and distribution of biological remains across any lake. An alternative approach therefore is to use total organic carbon [OC] accumulation rate as a measure of the whole lake response to see if there is, in fact, a regime shift at the whole lake scale. Here I present examples of Holocene OC accumulation rate responses to external forcing from shallow eutrophic and boreal lakes and compare them to biological records of structural ecological change to determine whether there has been a whole-lake regime shift.

  5. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  6. Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, Michael; Yu, Yan; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

    2015-10-01

    The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during 2007-2013. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

  7. Slow Wetland Response to Hydrological Change: Press Response or Regime Shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gell, P.; Kattel, G.

    2015-12-01

    Lakes vary in response to minor disturbances and, where stabilising feedbacks exist, tend to return to a particular stable state. If the disturbance is strong enough the stabilising forces may be overcome and the lake passes a threshold whereby it shifts into a new state controlled by a new suite of negative feedbacks. A typical switch in state is thought to occur in shallow lake systems whereby a pulse of sediment or nutrients may drive an increase in phytoplankton impacting the light regime. This impacts negatively on submerged plants which results in greater entrainment of benthic sediments and release of buried nutrients. These strengthen the competitive advantage of phytoplankton and entrench the lake in a new state. Multiple diatom-based sedimentary records of change in wetlands in the lower River Murray, Australia, have revealed assemblage turnover following river regulation and the impoundment of the estuary. Typically, benthic and epiphytic flora have yielded to planktonic and disturbance taxa indicative the loss of aquatic plants and a decline in the light regime consistent with regime shift theory. This evidence is supported by changes in the remains of macrophytes, cladocerans and stable isotopes which reveal the loss of plants and the shift to a pelagic system. However, rather than exhibiting flickering before changing abruptly, these systems have changed gradually over several decades. It could be argued that this represents a slow response to a threshold change. Alternatively, it is merely an ongoing response to the persistent pressure exerted by increased fluxes of sediments and nutrients.

  8. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  9. Impacts of shifting fire regime on ecosystem carbon storage capacity in the interior Alaskan forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, D.; Kelly, R.; Hu, F.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance in the boreal forest, and variations in fire regimes have important ecological, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic implications. Recent widespread burning throughout the biome has been convincingly linked to climatic warming, with expectations of increased burning with future climate change. However, fire-regime dynamics are scale-dependent, and it is unclear whether empirical climate-fire relationships derived from the short observational record are applicable to future projections. Paleo-fire reconstructions offer a valuable extension to historical fire records by providing a context for ongoing change and offering insights to the causes and consequences of fire regime shifts over decades to millennia. The main objectives of this study are to address 1) how fire regime shift impacts ecosystem C dynamics at a millennial time scale; and 2) which factor is more important in regulating the dynamics of ecosystem C storage capacity at decades to millennium scales among fire, CO2 and temperature. In this study, the REGIME model (Weng et al. JGR, 2012) has been modified to evaluate the dynamics of ecosystem C storage capacity (the theoretic capacity of an ecosystem to store C) since 3000 years BP for the black spruce forests in interior Alaska under the influence of changing fire regime, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and climate warming, all of which were derived from paleo-data. In addition, C storage capacity was also modeled through the 21 century using IPCC scenarios for CO2 and temperature, and fire regime scenario derived based on a paleo-fire dataset. Overall, fire frequency has been constant but fire severity has increased significantly since 3000 years BP for the studied area. Our results indicate that this fire regime shifting alone or in combination with temperature and/or CO2 always decrease ecosystem C storage capacity over the past 3000 years. Among the single factors, fire regime shifting results in the greatest

  10. Regime shifts in upwelling ecosystems: observed changes and possible mechanisms in the northern and southern Benguela [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cury, Philippe; Shannon, Lynne

    2004-02-01

    A regime shift is considered to be a sudden shift in structure and functioning of a marine ecosystem, affecting several living components and resulting in an alternate state. According to this definition, regime shifts differ from species replacement or alternation of species at similar trophic levels, whereby the ecosystem is not necessarily significantly altered in terms of its structure and function; only its species composition changes. This paper provides an overview of regime shifts, species replacements and alternations that have been observed in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the past few decades. Bottom-up control, initiating and sustaining regime shifts or species replacements via environmental forcing, is documented for both the southern and the northern Benguela ecosystems. Fishing (a case of top-down control) appears to have played an important role in regime shift processes in the Namibian ecosystem. Very low biomass levels of exploited fish stocks associated with less efficient energy transfer in the northern Benguela are indicative of a regime shift. Very high biomass levels have been reached in the southern Benguela in the 2000s. However the alternation between sardine and anchovy that has been observed in the southern Benguela over the last two decades appears not to have had major effects on the overall functioning of the ecosystem. The consequences of regime shifts for exploitation are highlighted, suggesting that fisheries managers should move towards a more effective ecosystem approach to fisheries.

  11. Historical Reconstruction of Regime Shifts in Amazon Oxbow Lakes - A Remote Sensing Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belcon, A. U.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Davenport, L.; Terborgh, J. W.

    2010-12-01

    Regime shifts in shallow lakes often have been associated with land-use change, increased nutrient loading and manipulation of trophic structure (Carpenter 2003). These shifts typically have been examined in lakes in temperate and boreal regions and within anthropogenically disturbed basins. By contrast in this study we examine a series of tropical floodplain lakes in a region of virtually no human disturbance to evaluate the effects of hydrological variability on ecosystem structure and dynamics. We reconstruct a timeline of regime shifts in Amazonian oxbow lakes (cochas) along the Manu River, Peru within the Manu National Park. The park contains the entire Manu watershed, including the river and oxbow lakes, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study both tropical lakes within a key region of high biodiversity, as well as regime shifts within a watershed that has not experienced any significant human influence. The Cocha Cashu Biological station was established on the banks of one of the Manu River’s oxbow lakes in the 1970 and has been operated by J. Terborgh since 1973. Observational reports from the station indicate that two types of flood events affect the floodplain lakes: “normal” floods that occur every year in the rainy season (October to May) and “megafloods” - extreme events that occur once a decade or so and sweep over the entire floodplain. Three megafloods occurred in the Manu River’s floodplain in the last 35 years: 1982, 1999 and 2003. The 2003 flood was followed rapidly by a regime shift at Cocha Cashu from phytoplankton, the state in which it had existed for the previous 30 years of observation, to a clear water lake with a luxuriant growth of submerged aquatic vegetation. Three years later in 2006, the lake switched again, this time to a state dominated by floating vegetation (Pistia stratiotes). It was not known at that time whether these changes were basin-wide and occurring at other lakes or whether they had occurred in the

  12. Large Dispersive Shift of Cavity Resonance Induced by a Superconducting Flux Qubit in the Straddling Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inomata, Kunihiro; Yamamoto, Tsuyoshi; Billangeon, Pierre-M.; Lin, Zhirong; Nakamura, Yasunobu; Tsai, Jaw-Shen; Koshino, Kazuki

    2013-03-01

    We demonstrate enhancement of the dispersive frequency shift in a coplanar waveguide resonator induced by a capacitively coupled superconducting flux qubit in the straddling regime. The magnitude of the observed shift, 80 MHz for the qubit-resonator detuning of 5 GHz, is quantitatively explained by the generalized Rabi model which takes into account the contribution of the qubit higher energy levels. By applying the enhanced dispersive shift to the qubit readout, we achieved 90 % contrast of the Rabi oscillations which is mainly limited by the energy relaxation of the qubit. We also discuss the qubit readout using a Josephson parametric amplifier. This work was supported by the MEXT Kakenhi ``Quantum Cybernetics'', the JSPS through its FIRST Program, and the NICT Commissioned Research.

  13. Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

    2015-11-01

    Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California

  14. Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence.

    PubMed

    Capon, Samantha J; Lynch, A Jasmyn J; Bond, Nick; Chessman, Bruce C; Davis, Jenny; Davidson, Nick; Finlayson, Max; Gell, Peter A; Hohnberg, David; Humphrey, Chris; Kingsford, Richard T; Nielsen, Daryl; Thomson, James R; Ward, Keith; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-11-15

    The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these

  15. Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-05-01

    Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing

  16. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

  17. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so. PMID:26372224

  18. Regime shifts in the ocean: reconciling observations and theory [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, John H.

    2004-02-01

    The discussions in the Villefranche Workshop covered a wide range of issues. The term regime shift was originally confined to spatial or temporal correspondences between climatic indices and population abundance. The body of evidence for physical-biological coupling has certainly generated a much better appreciation of the natural decadal scale variability in marine systems. It is difficult, however, to deduce from these time series, the mechanisms or trophic pathways that produce the correspondence. Ideally, we would need experimental manipulations such as those used in small lakes, to unravel the causal connections. Since this is impossible in the open sea, we must use comparisons between systems subject to different types of perturbation or stress. We focused at the Workshop on the effects of over-fishing in different marine regimes. The consequences of large scale changes in community structure imposed by excessive fishing give valuable case studies. Coral reefs, rocky shores, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems provide other examples. The possible existence of similar processes across such diverse systems raises corresponding questions about common ecological principles. The adaptive benefits of maximizing resilience (defined as minimizing the largest eigenvalue of the perturbed system) were considered. The corollary of this assumption is that, at the limits of adaptation, there will be switching between communities, providing a potential ground for a broad definition of regime shifts.

  19. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so. PMID:26372224

  20. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.

  1. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

  2. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns.

    PubMed

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant. PMID:26066160

  3. Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

    2016-04-01

    Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

  4. An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Thomas A A; Johnson, Christopher N; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

    2014-03-01

    The mass extinction events during human prehistory are striking examples of ecological regime shifts, the causes of which are still hotly debated. In Australia, human arrival approximately 50 thousand years ago was associated with the continental-scale extinction of numerous marsupial megafauna species and a permanent change in vegetation structure. An alternative stable state persisted until a second regime shift occurred during the late Holocene, when the largest two remaining marsupial carnivores, the thylacine and devil, disappeared from mainland Australia. These extinctions have been widely attributed to the human-assisted invasion of a competing predator, the dingo. In this unusual case, the simultaneous effects of human "intensification" (population growth and technological advances) and climate change (particularly increased ENSO variability) have been largely overlooked. We developed a dynamic model system capable of simulating the complex interactions between the main predators (humans, thylacines, devils, dingoes) and their marsupial prey (macropods), which we coupled with reconstructions of human population growth and climate change for late-Holocene Australia. Because the strength of important interspecific interactions cannot be estimated directly, we used detailed scenario testing and sensitivity analysis to identify robust model outcomes and investigate competing explanations for the Holocene regime shift. This approach identified human intensification as the most probable cause, while also demonstrating the potential importance of synergies with the effects of climate change. Our models indicate that the prehistoric impact of humans on Australian mammals was not limited to the late Pleistocene (i.e., the megafaunal extinctions) but extended into the late Holocene. PMID:24804453

  5. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  6. Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2015-01-01

    In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

  7. Delay and noise induced regime shift and enhanced stability in gene expression dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Tao; Zhang, Chun; Zeng, Chunhua; Zhou, Guoqiong; Han, Qinglin; Tian, Dong; Zhang, Huili

    2014-12-01

    A quantitative model of autoregulatory gene expression involving a single gene with time delays and cross-correlated noise sources is investigated. The probability density and mean first passage time (MFPT) of the protein concentration are obtained. The impacts of multiplicative (σM) and additive (σA) noise intensities, cross-correlation intensity λ between two noises, time delays τ in the degradation process and θ in the synthesis process and time delay β in both processes on the probability density and MFPT of the regime shifts between high and low protein concentration states are discussed, respectively. These results indicate that (i) the regime shifts from a high (or low) protein concentration state to a low (or high) one can be induced by σM, λ and θ (or σA and β) (ii) the MFPT as a function of the noise intensity σM or σA exhibits one maximum value in the case of λ > 0 or θ > 0, this maximum is a signature of the noise's enhanced stability phenomenon for high protein concentration state; and (iii) τ and β can weaken the stability of high protein concentration state but, in contrast, λ and θ can enhance it in the gene expression dynamics.

  8. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P. Suresh C.

    2014-11-01

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.

  9. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

  10. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  11. Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

    2012-03-01

    Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

  12. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America

    PubMed Central

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-01-01

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910–1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  13. An Observed Regime Shift in SE Michigan Bankfull (Q1.5) Streamflow Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl, T. A.; Mahoney, M. H.; Selegean, J. P.

    2008-12-01

    The bankfull or 1.5 year (Q1.5) event is often used in fluvial geomorphology as the streamflow that will dictate a number of physical parameters of the system. This makes it a very important parameter to know for river restoration projects and it is critical to the design methodologies put forward by Rosgen, Shields, and others. Q1.5 is typically calculated using all available peak flow data at a given gauge site. For this study, however, data from USGS streamflow gauges in SE Michigan was split into 15 year overlapping intervals. The resulting series of Q1.5 events indicates a distinct regime shift occurring in the mid 1960s. Initially this shift was attributed to increased urbanization and associated runoff. Additional investigations indicated that this phenomenon had also occurred in watersheds that had remained primarily agricultural. A comparison of the time frames with precipitation records indicated that this change was caused by a shift in regional rainfall patterns. This hydroclimatic variation on a human time-scale has significant implications for the design of restoration projects that may lead to oversizing restored channels and consequent sediment infilling.

  14. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

    PubMed Central

    Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

  15. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

  16. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

    PubMed

    Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

  17. Hydrological extremes in the Aksu-Tarim River Basin: Climatology and regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Hui; Borth, Hartmut; Fraedrich, Klaus; Schneidereit, Andrea; Zhu, Xiuhua

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed to classify and investigate hydrological drought and wetness conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The leading time and spatial variability of hydrological drought has been investigated by applying a principal component analysis and Varimax rotation to the SPI on a time scale of 24 months. The results suggest that the western basin is characterized by a clear tendency towards wetter conditions after the middle of the 1980s, which results from an increase in the number of wet extremes and can be considered as a regime shift. Subdividing the period of analysis into two parts (1961-1986 and 1987-2010) this change can be clearly seen in a shift of the probability distribution function of precipitation events. Composite analyses of monthly mean geopotential height fields and wind fields of the ERA-40 data set show that enhanced wetness in the Tarim River Basin after the middle of 1980s is closely related to cyclonic anomalies on the European continent and circulation anomalies over mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. Further correlation analysis between the principal components of SPI and large circulation indices shows that hydrological extremes in the Tarim River Basin correlate with indices related to the polar vortex and subtropical high.

  18. The Demise of the Circumboreal Mammoth Steppe as an Ecological Regime Shift: Drivers and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, D. H.; Groves, P.; Grosse, G.; Gaglioti, B.; Kunz, M.

    2011-12-01

    abundance grass and sedges, firm substrates, and unusual mixtures of steppe and tundra vegetation. What caused the demise of the Mammoth Steppe is unclear, however understanding what maintained it over space and time would greatly aid this discussion. The habitat shift began ca. 12,500 14C yr BP and continued for approximately 2000 years. It coincided with a shift from well-drained, mineral soils to poorly drained, organic-rich ones. This regime shift may have been more significant than changes during previous interglacial climatic shifts as most megafaunal species adapted to life in the Mammoth Steppe experienced radical range reductions and, in some cases, global extinction during this period.

  19. Altered peat hydrophysical properties following drainage and wildfire increases peatland vulnerability to ecosystem regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Kettridge, Nick; Sherwood, James; Granath, Gustaf

    2015-04-01

    Northern peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reservoir, composed largely of legacy carbon which is no longer part of the active carbon cycle. However, it is unclear whether this legacy carbon is vulnerable as a result of enhanced peat smouldering and combustion under the moderate drying conditions predicted for northern peatlands as a result of climate change and/or disturbance from forestry, mining, and associated transport development. A significant loss in legacy carbon as a result of wildfire has already been observed in smaller tropical peatlands where deep peat soils have been destabilized due to severe drainage and a shift in vegetation. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland several decades post drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition, previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands, when accompanied by wildfire. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire resulted in a shift of the peat surface down the peat profile, exposing denser peat at the surface. In undisturbed northern peatlands where depth of burn is typically low, low-density near-surface peats help regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture availability post-fire, both of which are favourable to Sphagnum recolonization. As a result of drainage and fire at the study site, the self-regulating properties of the low-density Sphagnum surface were lost. We demonstrate that changes in peat hydrophysical properties increased hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery leading to the conversion to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy carbon stored in the peat.

  20. Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

    PubMed

    DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

    2009-03-01

    The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

  1. Regime shift in sandy beach microbial communities following Deepwater Horizon oil spill remediation efforts.

    PubMed

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  2. Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conners, M. E.; Hollowed, A. B.; Brown, E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey.

  3. Evidence for Pacific Climate Regime Shifts as Preserved in a Southeast Alaska Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, S. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Thompson, L. G.

    2012-12-01

    Climate modes emanating from the Pacific sector have far-reaching effects across the globe. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects anomalies in the sea surface temperature and pressure fields over the tropical Pacific, but climate implications from these anomalies extend to monsoon regions of Asia to North America and even Europe. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific sector and influences the long-term behavior of the ENSO cycle as well as the storm track over North America expressed as the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). The impacts of both climate change and drastically reduced Arctic sea ice cover on these teleconnection patterns are poorly understood, and with little knowledge about their past behavior, predicting the changes in these climate modes is extremely difficult. An ice core from the col between Mt. Bona and Mt. Churchill in southeast Alaska provides an opportunity to examine the PDO prior to both the start of instrumental records and the more recent effects of anthropogenic climate change. The Bona-Churchill records of isotopic, dust, and chemical composition are compared to nearby meteorological station and 20th century reanalysis data to evaluate their strength as climate recorders. Climate indices such as the PDO and PNA, along with indices created to describe the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, are incorporated into the analysis to determine if proxy relationships are altered under different climate regimes. Satellite records of sea ice extent within the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, when compared to the Bona-Churchill data, show a distinct change in behavior in the mid-1990s possibly in response to the temporary negative shift in the PDO. This behavioral shift is explored and placed into a broader climate context to determine whether similar events have occurred in the past or if this shift is unique to a rapidly warming Arctic.

  4. Regime Shift in Sandy Beach Microbial Communities following Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Remediation Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A.

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  5. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  6. Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

    PubMed

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  7. Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

    PubMed

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  8. Regime Shift by an Exotic Nitrogen-Fixing Shrub Mediates Plant Facilitation in Primary Succession

    PubMed Central

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  9. The burning of northern peatlands: evaluating evidence of potential regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turetsky, M. R.; Benscoter, B.; Kane, E. S.; Olefeldt, D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has increased both annual area burned and the severity of biomass combustion in some boreal regions. For example, there has been a four-fold increase in late season fires in Alaska over the 10 years relative to the previous 5 decades. Such changes in the fire regime are expected to stimulate ecosystem carbon losses through fuel combustion, reduced primary production, and increased decomposition. Peatlands and permafrost forests have a number of stabilizing mechanisms that increase their resilience to disturbances like fire. For example, thick moss and peat layers buffer surface soils and permafrost from fluctuating hydrology and air temperatures and also inhibit flaming combustion during fires. Because of their resistance to burning, there are strong positive correlations between pre- and post- fire peat thickness that persist through multiple fire cycles. However, recent research has highlighted the potential for regime shifts associated with interactions between climate and disturbances. We found that drainage of forested peatlands increased woody biomass, lowered the resistance of deep peat layers to burning, and may lead to new trajectories of vegetation succession less conducive to peat accumulation. Overall, there are cross-scale, multi-directional feedbacks between soil conditions, vegetation structure, and the distribution of peatland and upland forest landforms that influence patterns of wildfire occurrence and severity from local to landscape scales. Our understanding of these feedbacks and their consequences for the carbon source/sink capacity of ecosystems is still limited, but point to the potential for new relationships between climate, fire, and vegetation in the boreal biome.

  10. Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  11. North and South Atlantic Bidecadal SL variability: Rossby Waves, AMOC fingerprints and Regime Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vianna, M. L.; Menezes, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    The relationship between the North and South Atlantic bidecadal sea level (SL) oscillations in the twentieth century (1908-2008) is investigated using SODA 2.2.4 reanalysis and 102 monthly mean SL time series from TG stations provided by PSMSL. Bidecadal SL signal extraction was done using our method of subjectively choosing groupings of space-time data into non-overlapping period bands by use of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)/ Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) analysis. A CEOF analysis of the SODA bidecadal band shows dominance of 22-24 year periods. Propagating bidecadal mode expansions were then determined through this analysis, which gives two principal modes. The first mode is dominant from 1915 to 1965 and the second from 1970 onward. The amplitude variabilities obtained suggests the presence of regime shifts, which coincide in time with shifts actually observed in European climate and South African lobster fisheries. The first mode is characterized by states with North and South Atlantic subtropical gyres in phase, while tropical and subpolar regions are in opposite phase relative to them. The second mode is characterized by the subpolar gyre and North subtropical gyre almost in quadrature, with North and South subtropical gyres out of phase. The evolution mechanism of this latter mode is related to east-west density contrasts and westward propagating Rossby waves. These waves show phase speeds dominated by geostrophic self-advection of density anomalies relative to the mean meridional density gradient as known from previous studies, but are shown to be additionally influenced by bottom topography. The oscillations caused by these waves are shown to have phase differences (quadrature in the North Atlantic) with regional indices of bidecadal AMOC oscillations. A number of SL-AMOC fingerprints are also reviewed, and a new eastern equatorial fingerprint is proposed.

  12. Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wenjun; Jin, Fei-Fei; Turner, Andrew

    2014-06-01

    In the two most recent decades, more frequent drought struck southern China during autumn, causing an unprecedented water crisis. We found that the increasing autumn drought is largely attributed to an ENSO regime shift. Compared to traditional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events have occurred more frequently, with maximum sea surface temperature anomalies located near the dateline. Southern China usually experiences precipitation surplus during the autumn of EP El Niño years, while the CP El Niño tends to produce precipitation deficits. Since the CP El Niño has occurred more frequently while EP El Niño has become less common after the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of autumn drought. This has implications for increasing precipitation shortages over southern China in a warming world, in which CP El Niño events have been suggested to become more common.

  13. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  14. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia.

    PubMed

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  15. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    PubMed Central

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  16. Man-induced regime shifts in small estuaries—I: theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterwerp, Johan C.; Wang, Zheng Bing

    2013-12-01

    This is Part I of two papers on man-induced regime shifts in small, narrow, and converging estuaries, with focus on the interaction between effective hydraulic drag, fine sediment import, and tidal amplification, induced by river engineering works, e.g., narrowing and deepening. In this part, a simple linear analytical model is derived, solving the linearized shallow water equations in exponentially converging tidal rivers. Distinguishing reflecting and non-reflecting conditions, a non-dimensional dispersion equation is derived which yields the real and imaginary wave numbers as a function of the estuarine convergence number and effective hydraulic drag. The estuarine convergence number describes the major geometrical features of a tidal river, e.g., intertidal area, convergence length, and water depth. This model is used in Part II analyzing the historical development of the tide in four rivers. Part I also presents a conceptual model on the response of tidal rivers to narrowing and deepening. It is argued that, upon the loss of intertidal area, flood-dominant conditions prevail, upon which fine sediments are pumped into the river, reducing its effective hydraulic drag. Then a snowball effect may be initiated, bringing the river into a hyper-turbid state. This state is self-maintaining because of entrainment processes, and favorable from an energetic point of view, and therefore highly stable. We may refer to an alternative steady state.

  17. Evolutionary regime shifts in age and size at maturation of exploited fish stocks

    PubMed Central

    de Roos, André M; Boukal, David S; Persson, Lennart

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide declines of fish stocks raise concerns about deleterious consequences of harvesting for stock abundances and individual life histories, and call for appropriate recovery strategies. Fishes in exploited stocks mature earlier at either larger or smaller sizes due to both genetic and plastic responses. The latter occur commonly when reduced competition for food leads to faster growth. Using a size-structured consumer–resource model, which accounts for both genetic and plastic responses, we show that fisheries-induced evolutionary changes in individual life history and stock properties can easily become irreversible. As a result of annual spawning, early maturation at small sizes and late maturation at large sizes can become alternative, evolutionarily and ecologically stable states under otherwise identical environmental conditions. Exploitation of late-maturing populations can then induce an evolutionary regime shift to smaller maturation sizes associated with stepwise, 1-year decreases in age at first reproduction. Complete and early fishing moratoria slowly reverse this process, but belated or partial closure of fisheries may accelerate or even instigate further evolution to smaller sizes at maturation. We suggest that stepwise decreases in maturation age can be used as early warnings of upcoming evolutionary changes, and should inspire timely restrictions of fisheries. PMID:16822746

  18. Shifting ice regimes of Arctic thermokarst lakes and implications for permafrost and surface-water dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arp, C. D.; Jones, B.; Urban, F. E.; Grosse, G.; Whitman, M.

    2011-12-01

    Thermokarst lakes cover >20% of the landscape throughout much of the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behavior. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (TLSA) representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analyzing remotely sensed imagery, water quality surveys, and climatic data over a 35-year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from <0.2 m/yr in very shallow lakes (0.4 m) up to 1.8 m/yr in the deepest lakes (2.6 m) and appear to be partly linked to variation in mean annual lake temperature (MALT). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Our analysis suggests that grounded-ice lakes are ice-free on average 37 days longer than floating-ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P-E. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. With respect to these findings there is particular interest in ACP lakes of depths encompassing the range of interannual variation in maximum ice thickness because these lakes will most readily show a shift of ice regimes with either a change in water balance or ice growth. For instance, a positive summer P-E and slow winter ice growth can result in a higher

  19. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  20. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  1. An ecosystem modelling framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into fisheries management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Caihong; Perry, R. Ian; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Schweigert, Jake; Liu, Huizhu

    2013-08-01

    Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EBM) attempt to account for fishing, climate variability and species interactions when formulating fisheries management advice. Ecosystem models that investigate the combined effects of ecological processes are vital to support the implementation of EBM by assessing the effectiveness of management strategies in an ecosystem context. In this study, an individual-based ecosystem model was used to demonstrate how species at different trophic levels and of different life histories responded to climate regimes and how well different single- or various multi-species fisheries at different intensities perform in terms of human benefits (yield) and trade-offs (fishery closures) as well as their impacts on the ecosystem. In addition, other performance indicators were also used to evaluate management strategies. The simulations indicated that under no fishing, each species responded to the regimes differently due to different life history traits and different trophic interactions. Fishing at the level of natural mortality (F = M) produced the highest yields within each fishery, however, an F adjusted for the current productivity conditions (regime) resulted in much fewer fishery closures compared with F = M, indicating the advantage of implementing a policy of a regime-specific F from the stand point of conservation and fishery stability. Furthermore, a regime-specific F strategy generally resulted in higher yield and fewer fishery closures compared with F = 0.5M. Other performance indicators also pointed to the advantage of using a regime-specific F strategy in terms of the stability of both ecosystem and fishery production. As a specific example, fishing the predators of Pacific herring under all multi-species fisheries scenarios increased the yield of Pacific herring and reduced the number of herring fishery closures. This supports the conclusion that an exploitation strategy which is balanced across all trophic levels

  2. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    PubMed Central

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  3. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  4. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models. PMID:26283344

  5. Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

  6. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes.

    PubMed

    Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Chazdon, Robin; Salk, Carl; Pajak, Michal; Sendzimir, Jan; Andersson, Krister

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes' 'ecological resilience', or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of 'engineering resilience', the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  7. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes.

    PubMed

    Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Chazdon, Robin; Salk, Carl; Pajak, Michal; Sendzimir, Jan; Andersson, Krister

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes' 'ecological resilience', or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of 'engineering resilience', the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas.

  8. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  9. Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

    PubMed

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

  10. Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

  11. Changes in the relationship in the SST variability between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific across 1998/99 regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jo, H. S.; Yeh, S. W.; Lee, S. K.

    2014-12-01

    This study examines why the relationship in the sea surface temperature (SST) variability between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific during the boreal winter (Dec.-Jan.) has been changed across the 1998/99 regime shift. While, the SST variability in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific is highly negatively correlated with that in the central-to-eastern North Pacific after the 1998/99 regime shift, it is not before the 1998/99 regime shift. It is found that the anomalous Aleutian low pressure in response to the tropical SST forcing becomes stronger and its center is shifted to the south and to the west after the 1998/99 to regime shift, which plays a key role to tighten the relationship in the tropical Pacific-North Pacific SST variability. Such a modulation of Aleutian low pressure is mainly due to the location of tropical heating, which is shifted to the west around the dateline in the tropical Pacific across the 1998/99 regime shift. Simple atmospheric model experiments also support this hypothesis that the shift of tropical heating to the west is responsible for strengthening the relationship in the tropical Pacific-North Pacific SST variability via the modulation of atmospheric teleconnections.

  12. Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Carles; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa; Alonso, Miguel; Duran, Concha; Jiménez, Pere J; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

    2012-02-01

    The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. PMID:22178026

  13. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    PubMed

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  14. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    PubMed

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  15. Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Elser, James J.; Elser, Timothy J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this “Green Revolution” has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007–2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  16. Indications for a North Atlantic ocean circulation regime shift at the onset of the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleussner, C.-F.; Divine, D. V.; Donges, J. F.; Miettinen, A.; Donner, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    A prominent characteristic of the reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature signal over the last millennium is the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we report indications for a non-linear regime shift in the North Atlantic ocean circulation at the onset of the LIA. Specifically, we apply a novel statistical test based on horizontal visibility graphs to two ocean sediment August sea-surface temperature records from the Norwegian Sea and the central subpolar basin and find robust indications of time-irreversibility in both records during the LIA onset. Despite a basin-wide cooling trend, we report an anomalous warming in the central subpolar basin during the LIA that is reproduced in ensemble simulations with the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α as a result of a non-linear regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic ocean circulation. The identified volcanically triggered non-linear transition in the model simulations provides a plausible explanation for the signatures of time-irreversibility found in the ocean sediment records. Our findings indicate a potential multi-stability of the North Atlantic ocean circulation and its importance for regional climate change on centennial time scales.

  17. Regime Shift and Microbial Dynamics in a Sequencing Batch Reactor for Nitrification and Anammox Treatment of Urine ▿†

    PubMed Central

    Bürgmann, Helmut; Jenni, Sarina; Vazquez, Francisco; Udert, Kai M.

    2011-01-01

    The microbial population and physicochemical process parameters of a sequencing batch reactor for nitrogen removal from urine were monitored over a 1.5-year period. Microbial community fingerprinting (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and quantitative PCR on nitrogen cycle functional groups were used to characterize the microbial population. The reactor combined nitrification (ammonium oxidation)/anammox with organoheterotrophic denitrification. The nitrogen elimination rate initially increased by 400%, followed by an extended period of performance degradation. This phase was characterized by accumulation of nitrite and nitrous oxide, reduced anammox activity, and a different but stable microbial community. Outwashing of anammox bacteria or their inhibition by oxygen or nitrite was insufficient to explain reactor behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, e.g., regime-shift analysis of chemical and physical parameters and cluster and ordination analysis of the microbial community, indicated that the system had experienced a rapid transition to a new stable state that led to the observed inferior process rates. The events in the reactor can thus be interpreted to be an ecological regime shift. Constrained ordination indicated that the pH set point controlling cycle duration, temperature, airflow rate, and the release of nitric and nitrous oxides controlled the primarily heterotrophic microbial community. We show that by combining chemical and physical measurements, microbial community analysis and ecological theory allowed extraction of useful information about the causes and dynamics of the observed process instability. PMID:21724875

  18. Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Defriez, Emma J; Sheppard, Lawrence W; Reid, Philip C; Reuman, Daniel C

    2016-06-01

    During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized. PMID:26810148

  19. Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Defriez, Emma J; Sheppard, Lawrence W; Reid, Philip C; Reuman, Daniel C

    2016-06-01

    During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

  20. Decadal variability in the abundance of Pacific saury and its response to climatic/oceanic regime shifts in the northwestern subtropical Pacific during the last half century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Ueno, Yasuhiro; Suda, Maki; Akamine, Taturo

    2004-12-01

    Pacific saury ( Cololabis saira) is one of the most important, small-sized, pelagic fishes in the North Pacific. Using correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), we examined the relationships between climatic/oceanographic indices (Asian monsoon index (MOI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index (NPI), Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, air temperature, wind velocity, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface current velocity (SCV) in the Kuroshio axis), and abundance/biological indices of Pacific saury (adult catch, catch per unit effort, i.e., CPUE, condition factor, and body length and larval density) in order to detect the response of Pacific saury abundance to the recent climatic/oceanic regime shifts (1976/1977, 1987/1988, and 1997/1998). Our oceanographic analyses show that notable regime shifts occurred in 1987/1988 and possibly 1997/1998 in the Kuroshio region, while the same kind of regime shift was not readily apparent there in 1976/1977. Results of our oceanographic/biological analyses show that the decadal-scale variation pattern in Pacific saury abundance responded well to the regime shifts of 1987/1988 and 1997/1998. These results indicate that only the regime shifts which occurred in the Kuroshio region can affect Pacific saury abundance. Our results also showed that the abundance and biological indices of saury significantly correlated with both the SSTs in the northwestern Kuroshio waters and the SCV in the Kuroshio axis in winter. These correlations suggest that winter oceanographic conditions in the Kuroshio region strongly affect the early survival process and determine the recruitment success of Pacific saury. The abundance of other major small pelagic species also changed greatly around 1989, suggesting that the regime shift in the late 1980s occurred in the pelagic ecosystem basin. We concluded that Pacific saury could be used as a bio-indicator of regime shifts in the

  1. Shift in precipitation regime promotes interspecific hybridization of introduced Coffea species.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Céline; Despinoy, Marc; Hamon, Serge; Hamon, Perla; Salmon, Danyela; Akaffou, Doffou Sélastique; Legnate, Hyacinthe; de Kochko, Alexandre; Mangeas, Morgan; Poncet, Valérie

    2016-05-01

    . However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow. PMID:27096083

  2. Dynamical regime shifts in the North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka as revealed by terrestrial proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franke, Jasper G.; Donner, Reik V.

    2016-04-01

    The climate during the last two millennia is in general considered to be exceptionally stable compared to prior times. Nevertheless, there have been different episodes of distinguishable climate dynamics, most prominently the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). In this study, we test a set of terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe for indications of temporary time-reversal asymmetry implying that during the thus identified periods of time, the data cannot be described by a linear Gaussian process and thus exhibit marked (possibly nonlinear) dynamics. Our analysis reveals that the onsets of both the MCA and the LIA are characterized by such complex dynamics indicating possible dynamical regime shifts in the regional climate system. Furthermore, the end of the Roman Warm Period as well as the 1.4k event are accompanied by similar signatures of time-reversal asymmetry.

  3. The change of nature and the nature of change in agricultural landscapes: Hydrologic regime shifts modulate ecological transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Takbiri, Zeinab; Czuba, Jonathan A.; Schwenk, Jon

    2015-08-01

    Hydrology in many agricultural landscapes around the world is changing in unprecedented ways due to the development of extensive surface and subsurface drainage systems that optimize productivity. This plumbing of the landscape alters water pathways, timings, and storage, creating new regimes of hydrologic response and driving a chain of environmental changes in sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling, and river ecology. In this work, we nonparametrically quantify the nature of hydrologic change in the Minnesota River Basin, an intensively managed agricultural landscape, and study how this change might modulate ecological transitions. During the growing season when climate effects are shown to be minimal, daily streamflow hydrographs exhibit sharper rising limbs and stronger dependence on the previous-day precipitation. We also find a changed storage-discharge relationship and show that the artificial landscape connectivity has most drastically affected the rainfall-runoff relationship at intermediate quantiles. Considering the whole year, we show that the combined climate and land use change effects reduce the inherent nonlinearity in the dynamics of daily streamflow, perhaps reflecting a more linearized engineered hydrologic system. Using a simplified dynamic interaction model that couples hydrology to river ecology, we demonstrate how the observed hydrologic change and/or the discharge-driven sediment generation dynamics may have modulated a regime shift in river ecology, namely extirpation of native mussel populations. We posit that such nonparametric analyses and reduced complexity modeling can provide more insight than highly parameterized models and can guide development of vulnerability assessments and integrated watershed management frameworks.

  4. Impacts of manipulated regime shifts in shallow lake model ecosystems on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Roessink, Ivo; Moermond, Caroline T A; Gillissen, Frits; Koelmans, Albert A

    2010-12-01

    Regime shifts in shallow lakes may significantly affect partitioning of sediment-bound hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) such as polychlorobiphenyls (PCB) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). In replicated experimental model ecosystems mimicking the alternative stable states 'macrophyte-dominated' and 'suspended solid - phytoplankton dominated', we tested the effects of macrophytes and benthivorous fish presence on mass distribution and bioaccumulation of hexachlorobenzene, PCBs and PAHs. HOC mass distributions and lipid-normalized concentrations in sediment (Soxhlet- and 6-h Tenax-extractable), suspended solids, macrophytes, periphyton, algae, zooplankton, invertebrates and carp revealed that mobile, i.e. less hydrophobic or less aged HOCs were more susceptible to ecological changes than their sequestered native counterparts. Macrophytes were capable of depleting considerable percentages of the bioavailable, fast desorbing HOC fractions in the sediment upper (bioactive) layer, but did not have a significant diluting effect on lipid-normalized HOC concentrations in carp. Carp structured invertebrate communities through predation and stimulated partitioning of HOCs to other system compartments by resuspending the sediment. These results show that shifts in ecosystem structure have clear effects on fate, risks and natural attenuation of sediment-bound organic contaminants. PMID:20673943

  5. Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Song; Hu, Qi; Huang, Wei; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Li, Ruopu; Tang, Zhenghong

    2014-01-01

    This study examined shifts in climate regimes over the global land area using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing observations during 1900-2010, and simulations during 1900-2100 from twenty global climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, the models projected a 3°-10 °C warming in annual temperature over the global land area by the end of the twenty-first century, with strong (moderate) warming in the high (middle) latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and weaker warming in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. The projected changes in precipitation vary considerably in space and present greater uncertainties among the models. Overall, the models are consistent in projecting increasing precipitation over the high-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, and reduced precipitation in the Mediterranean, southwestern North America, northern and southern Africa and Australia. Based on the projected changes in temperature and precipitation, the K-T climate types would shift toward warmer and drier climate types from the current climate distribution. Regions of temperate, tropical and dry climate types are projected to expand, while regions of polar, sub-polar and subtropical climate types are projected to contract. The magnitudes of the projected changes are stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario than the low emission scenario RCP4.5. On average, the climate types in 31.4% and 46.3% of the global land area are projected to change by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further analysis suggests that changes in precipitation played a slightly more important role in causing shifts of climate type during the twentieth century. However, the projected changes in temperature play an increasingly important role and dominate shifts in climate type

  6. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring

  7. Landscape response to climate change: quantifying a regime shift in transport processes at the onset of re-organization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Densmore, Alexander; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2016-04-01

    Quantifying the ways in which landscapes are reorganized under changing allogenic forcing, including changes in the patterns, rates, and processes of erosion and deposition, is still an open question. Data at the time scales and resolutions required to undertake such a question are typically not available for real landscapes, making physical experiments attractive and powerful means for studying the dynamics of landscape evolution. To this aim, we capitalize on a series of controlled laboratory experiments conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. The eXperimental Landscape Evolution (XLE) facility consists of an erosion box (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.3 m3) wherein two main variables can be controlled: uplift rate and rainfall intensity. Topographic data were collected at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (under constant uplift and precipitation rate), and during the transient state following an increase in the precipitation rate by a factor of 5. In order to quantify the changes observed during the onset of reorganization in the transient state, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS) conditions, even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes within the fluvial regime of the landscape, from supply-limited to transport-limited, during the onset of the TS. Results on the evolution of the spatial patterns of erosional and depositional events when the time advances within the TS are also discussed.

  8. Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

    PubMed Central

    Gårdmark, Anna; Casini, Michele; Huss, Magnus; van Leeuwen, Anieke; Hjelm, Joakim; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M.

    2015-01-01

    Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.

  9. Export flux and stability as regulators of community composition in pelagic marine biological communities: Implications for regime shifts [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laws, Edward

    2004-02-01

    Regime shifts occur when a system transitions from one stable configuration to another. Such abrupt changes in biological communities may reflect small changes in environmental conditions such as temperature, oxygen concentration, or irradiance. Although it seems clear that biological communities are not randomly organized with respect to their functional components, there is disagreement concerning the factors that control that organization. In this paper, I examine the implications of assuming that the composition of pelagic marine biological communities evolves to a condition of maximum stability or resilience. At temperatures of 25 °C or less, a model based on this hypothesis predicts abrupt and discontinuous transitions from configurations associated with low export ratios to configurations associated with high export ratios as the rate of primary production increases. Comparison between field data and model predictions shows very good agreement at low and high production rates, but the field data do not support a step-function transition from low to high export ratios at intermediate rates of production. Instead, the field data are consistent with the assumption that food webs effect the transition between high and low ef ratio modes by reconfiguring themselves in a more-or-less continuous manner. The configurations associated with these transitions are at least locally more resilient than any similar food web structure.

  10. Skin Bioprinting: Impending Reality or Fantasy?

    PubMed

    Ng, Wei Long; Wang, Shuai; Yeong, Wai Yee; Naing, May Win

    2016-09-01

    Bioprinting provides a fully automated and advanced platform that facilitates the simultaneous and highly specific deposition of multiple types of skin cells and biomaterials, a process that is lacking in conventional skin tissue-engineering approaches. Here, we provide a realistic, current overview of skin bioprinting, distinguishing facts from myths. We present an in-depth analysis of both current skin bioprinting works and the cellular and matrix components of native human skin. We also highlight current limitations and achievements, followed by design considerations and a future outlook for skin bioprinting. The potential of bioprinting with converging opportunities in biology, material, and computational design will eventually facilitate the fabrication of improved tissue-engineered (TE) skin constructs, making bioprinting skin an impending reality. PMID:27167724

  11. Regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics inferred from speleothems: Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.; Marwan, Norbert; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Rehfeld, Kira; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system has been recognized as an important potential tipping element in Earth's climate. A global warming-driven change in monsoonal circulation, potentially towards a drier and more irregular regime, would profoundly affect up to 60% of the global human population. Hence, to improve our understanding of this major climate system, it is mandatory to investigate evidence for nonlinear transitions in past monsoonal dynamics and the underlying mechanisms that are contained in the available palaeoclimatic record. For this purpose, speleothems are among the best available high-resolution archives of Asian palaeomonsoonal variability during the Holocene and well beyond. In this work, we apply recurrence networks, a recently developed technique for nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate data (Donges et al., PNAS 108, 20422-20427, 2011), for detecting episodes with pronounced changes in Asian monsoon dynamics during the last 10 ka in oxygen isotope records from spatially distributed cave deposits covering the different branches of the Asian monsoon system. Our methodology includes multiple archives, explicit consideration of dating uncertainties with the COPRA approach and rigorous significance testing to ensure the robust detection of continental-scale changes in monsoonal dynamics. We identify several periods characterised by nonlinear changes in Asian monsoon dynamics (e.g., ~0.5, 2.2-2.8, 3.6-4.1, 5.4-5.7, and 8.0-8.5 ka before present [BP]), the timing of which suggests a connection to extra-tropical Bond events and rapid climate change (RCC) episodes during the Holocene. Interestingly, we furthermore detect an epoch of significantly increased regularity of monsoonal variations around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that is consistent with the typical 1.0-1.5 ka periodicity of Bond events but has been rarely reported in the literature so far. Furthermore, we find that the detected epochs of nonlinear regime shifts in Asian monsoon dynamics partly

  12. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  13. Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey.

    PubMed

    Bahlai, Christine A; van der Werf, Wopke; vander Werf, Wopke; O'Neal, Matthew; Hemerik, Lia; Landis, Douglas A

    2015-10-01

    The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. We investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive species in the midwestern United States, the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis and the soybean aphid Aphis glycines. We show by model selection that after its 1993 invasion into the American Midwest, the year-to-year population dynamics of H. axyridis were initially governed by a logistic rule supporting gradual rise to a stable carrying capacity. After invasion of the soybean aphid in 2000, food resources at the landscape level became abundant, supporting a higher year-to-year growth rate and a higher but unstable carrying capacity, with two-year cycles in both aphid and lady beetle abundance as a consequence. During 2005-2007, farmers in the Midwest progressively increased their use of insecticides for managing A. glycines, combining prophylactic seed treatment with curative spraying based on thresholds. This human intervention dramatically reduced the soybean aphid as a major food resource for H. axyridis at landscape level and corresponded to a reverse shift towards the original logistic rule for year-to-year dynamics. Thus, we document a short episode of major predator-prey fluctuations in an important agricultural system resulting from two biological invasions that were apparently damped by widespread insecticide use. Recent advances in development of plant resistance to A. glycines in soybeans may mitigate the need for pesticidal control and achieve the same stabilization of pest and predator populations at lower cost and environmental burden. PMID:26591447

  14. An integrated analysis of the marine social-ecological system of the Strait of Georgia, Canada, over the past four decades, and development of a regime shift index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, R. Ian; Masson, Diane

    2013-08-01

    A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact conceptual model of the Strait of Georgia, Canada, was developed as a framework to characterise the low frequency temporal (regime-like) patterns of variability in this system since 1970, and to identify suitable indicators of these changes. Thirty-seven time series, including both bio-physical (“natural”) and human variables, were assembled with sufficiently few missing years to permit multivariate statistical analyses. Principal component analyses identified regime-like shifts that correspond to those generally accepted for the NE Pacific (late 1970s; mid-1990s), plus an additional shift in the mid-1980s. Redundancy analyses identified significant relationships in which the natural and human explanatory driver/pressure variables accounted for 72% of the variability of the state/impact response variables. Partitioning this variance among the natural and human drivers/pressures attributed 4% to the natural drivers/pressures alone and 16% to the human drivers/pressures alone, but 53% to the interactions between natural and human drivers and pressures. Both sets of driver and pressure variables (natural and human) are therefore necessary to account for the patterns of variability of the state and impact variables in the Strait of Georgia. Redundancy analysis was also used to identify a reduced set of driver/pressure variables which accounted for a large proportion of the variability in the state and impact response variables: sea surface temperature, wind speed, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index, human population surrounding the Strait of Georgia, recreational fishing effort, and the number of hatchery releases of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into the Strait. A structural change analysis was used to identify significant changes in these six explanatory variables, and to identify regime shift years (including their 95% confidence intervals). A regime shift index for the Strait of Georgia was then constructed using

  15. The late 1980s regime shift in the ecosystem of Tsushima warm current in the Japan/East Sea: Evidence from historical data and possible mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Watanabe, Tatsuro; Iguchi, Naoki

    2008-05-01

    A climatic regime shift, an abrupt change from cooling to warming in the Japan/East Sea (JES), particularly in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region, occurred in the late 1980s. The ecosystem of the JES responded strongly to the changing thermal regime. Many, but not all biological components of the ecosystem, spanning from plankton to predatory fishes, and including both warm-water pelagic and cold-water demersal species responded to this late 1980s climatic regime shift in the JES. Diatom abundance (cell number) in spring from a monitoring line located in the central part of JES showed decadal variations with a step change from positive to negative anomalies in 1991. Zooplankton biomass in spring and autumn was high in the 1970s, declined during the 1980s, and returned to higher, but quite variable levels during the 1990s. Japanese sardine catch increased after 1974 to its peak level in 1989 and then declined dramatically to 1974 levels by 1997 with step changes in 1979 and 1994. Conversely, catches of other small pelagic species such as Japanese anchovy and common squid, and several higher-trophic fishes, such as yellowtail and tunas increased markedly in the 1990s compared to the early-mid 1980s. Step changes were detected in these pelagic species during 1989-1992. Catch of demersal species (crab, pink shrimp, Pacific cod and walleye pollock) were high during most of the 1970-1980s, but declined at various times in the late 1980s to generally low catches in the 1990s. Detailed analysis of the demersal fish assemblage composition, abundance and distribution indicated a shift in the late 1980s with several years lag in the time of change. Cold-water species (e.g., walleye pollock, Pacific cod) decreased in abundance and the regions in which their abundances remained high became greatly reduced in extent. Conversely, warm-water species (e.g., pointhead flounder, shotted halibut) increased in abundance and/or extended their spatial range (as indicated by trawl

  16. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Nutrient Limitation, Plant Biomass and Productivity, and Stream Metabolism Vary in Response to Short- and Long-Term Hydrological Regime Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, N. B.; Sabo, J. L.; Dong, X.; Ruhí, A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and hydrology are strong drivers of ecosystem structure and function in arid landscapes. Arid regions are characterized by high interannual variation in precipitation, and these climate patterns drive the overall hydrologic disturbance regime (in terms of flooding and drying), which influences geomorphic structure, biotic distributions, and nutrient status of desert stream ecosystems. We analyzed the long-term pattern of discharge in a desert stream in Arizona to identify hydrologic regime shifts, i.e., abrupt transitions between sequences of floods and droughts at periods of months to decades. We used wavelet analysis to identify time intervals over a 50-year time series that were negatively correlated with one another, reflecting a shift from wet to dry phases. We also looked with finer resolution at the most recent 10-year period, when wetlands have come to dominate the ecosystem owing to a management change, and at individual flood and drought events within years. In space, there is high site fidelity of wetland plant cover, corresponding to reliable water sources. Comparing five-year patterns of plant distribution and stream metabolism between wet and dry years suggested the primacy of geomorphic controls in drought periods. Nutrient limitation of algal production varied from moderate to very strong N limitation, with only one year when there was a (weak) suggestion of secondary P limitation. Over the longer period of record, we identified times characterized by hydrological regime shifts and asked whether ecosystem variables would have changed over that time period. We hypothesized, in particular, that the changes in nutrient status of the stream ecosystem would result from these regime shifts. We used our most complete long-term dataset on stream nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and N:P ratios as a proxy for nutrient limitation. However, N:P varied primarily at fine scales in response to individual flood events.

  17. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  18. Teleconnection, regime shift, and predictability of climate extremes: A case study for the Russian heat wave and Pakistan flood in summer 2010.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-12-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics, resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  19. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-02-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

  20. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-01-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds (“WAP 12”, “WAP 20”, and “WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of 210Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring. PMID:25750718

  1. Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia

    PubMed Central

    Laird, Kathleen R.; Cumming, Brian F.; Wunsam, Sybille; Rusak, James A.; Oglesby, Robert J.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Leavitt, Peter R.

    2003-01-01

    Six high-resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the northern prairies of North America, show that shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. The predominant broad-scale pattern seen at all sites is a major shift in moisture regimes from wet to dry, or vice versa (depending on location), that occurred after a period of relative stability. These large-scale shifts at the different sites exhibit spatial coherence at regional scales. The three Canadian sites record this abrupt shift between anno Domini 500 and 800, and subsequently conditions become increasingly variable. All three U.S. sites underwent a pronounced change, but the timing of this change is between anno Domini 1000 and 1300, thus later than in all of the Canadian sites. The mechanisms behind these patterns are poorly understood, but they are likely related to changes in the shape and location of the jet stream and associated storm tracks. If the patterns seen at these sites are representative of the region, this observed pattern can have huge implications for future water availability in this region. PMID:12606725

  2. Students' Perceptions regarding Their Impending Transition out of College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yazedjian, Ani; Kielaszek, Becki J.; Toews, Michelle L.

    2010-01-01

    Although researchers have argued students experience feelings of stress, fear, and uncertainty as they transition from college to work life, there is limited empirical research supporting this argument. Our study filled this gap by exploring 183 fourth-year students' perceptions regarding their impending transition out of the college environment.…

  3. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    SciTech Connect

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-08-15

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  4. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  5. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-10-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  6. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    PubMed

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  7. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    PubMed

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  8. Shifts in the hydrodynamic regime determine patterns of regional changes of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle in future climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilyina, T.; Heinze, M.; Li, H.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Six, K. D.

    2015-12-01

    In future projections the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle is a hotspot for changes driven by rising CO2 emissions. Concomitantly, the Arctic Ocean hydrodynamic regime undergoes substantial shifts so the net effect on the carbon cycle is not intuitively clear. In the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5 extended until 2300 in projections of the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model, the averaged Arctic Ocean surface temperature rises by 4°C in 2100 and by 10°C in 2300, respectively. The Arctic becomes free of summer sea ice in the second half of the 21st century, whereas winter sea ice disappears at the beginning of the 23rd century. Owing to increased sea ice melting and runoff, fresh water content increases gradually until the end of the 22nd century and then drops abruptly as a result of an intensification of the saline Atlantic water inflow. Accumulation of Atlantic water collapses the halocline in the central basin of the Arctic Ocean by the first half of the 23rd century. Ongoing warming enhances thermal stratification and the mixed layer shoales. In contrast, halocline erosion and the cooling of the ice free water act in concert to favor formation of convection cells in the central basin. Freshening in the Canada basin and transport of salty water into the Eurasian basin generate a dipole structure in the anomalies of surface salinity. Driven by the rising CO2, the averaged dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is growing. Changes in the averaged total alkalinity (TA) go along with the fresh water content evolution and decreasing carbonate ion concentration so that TA drops below preindustrial values. Yet, along with salinity, the Eurasian basin receives waters with higher DIC and TA from the Atlantic. As a result, the distributions of TA and DIC anomalies resemble the dipole pattern projected for salinity. We show that while future changes in the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle proceed at rates determined by atmospheric CO2 levels, the regional patterns are driven by shifts in the

  9. Regime shifts in the Arctic North Atlantic during the Neoglacial revealed by seabirds and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, William J.; Hormes, Anne; Bakke, Jostein; Nicolaisen, Line

    2016-04-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. We report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver isotopically enriched nitrogen to nesting areas. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, using δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals with more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

  10. Reprint of “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Licandro, Priscilla; Coombs, Steve; Garcia, Alberto; Giráldez, Ana; Santamaría, Maria Teresa Garcia; Slotte, Aril; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamics of abundance and migrations of populations of small pelagic clupeoid fish such as anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sardine (Sardina pilchardus), sardinella (Sardinella aurita), sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the eastern North and Central Atlantic between Senegal and Norway vary in synchrony with the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is shown by compiling retrospective data on fish catches and anecdotal observations, which in some cases date back to the mid-19th century. The AMO is defined as the de-trended mean of North Atlantic (0-60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it is not primarily the temperature which drives the dynamics of the small pelagic fish populations. Instead, the AMO seems to be a proxy for complex processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. This is manifested in large-scale changes in strength and direction of the current system that move water masses around the North Atlantic and likely involves the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) and the subpolar gyre (SPG). The contractions and expansions of the SPG apparently play a key role. This was particularly obvious in the mid-1990s, when the SPG abruptly contracted with the result that warm subtropical water masses moved to the north and east. Small pelagic fish populations in the eastern North and Central Atlantic, including those in the Mediterranean responded quickly by changing abundances and migrating northwards. It seems that the complex ocean-atmosphere changes in the mid-1990s, which are described in the text in detail, caused a regime shift in the ecosystems of the eastern North and Central Atlantic and the small pelagic clupeoid fish populations are the sentinels of this shift.

  11. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Licandro, Priscilla; Coombs, Steve; Garcia, Alberto; Giráldez, Ana; Santamaría, Maria Teresa Garcia; Slotte, Aril; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.

    2014-03-01

    Dynamics of abundance and migrations of populations of small pelagic clupeoid fish such as anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sardine (Sardina pilchardus), sardinella (Sardinella aurita), sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the eastern North and Central Atlantic between Senegal and Norway vary in synchrony with the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is shown by compiling retrospective data on fish catches and anecdotal observations, which in some cases date back to the mid-19th century. The AMO is defined as the de-trended mean of North Atlantic (0-60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it is not primarily the temperature which drives the dynamics of the small pelagic fish populations. Instead, the AMO seems to be a proxy for complex processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. This is manifested in large-scale changes in strength and direction of the current system that move water masses around the North Atlantic and likely involves the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) and the subpolar gyre (SPG). The contractions and expansions of the SPG apparently play a key role. This was particularly obvious in the mid-1990s, when the SPG abruptly contracted with the result that warm subtropical water masses moved to the north and east. Small pelagic fish populations in the eastern North and Central Atlantic, including those in the Mediterranean responded quickly by changing abundances and migrating northwards. It seems that the complex ocean-atmosphere changes in the mid-1990s, which are described in the text in detail, caused a regime shift in the ecosystems of the eastern North and Central Atlantic and the small pelagic clupeoid fish populations are the sentinels of this shift.

  12. Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

    2007-02-01

    Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime-shifts

  13. Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2007-07-01

    We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

  14. Intercomparison of the temperature contrast between the arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Powell, Alfred M.; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Li

    2015-11-01

    Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis temperature dataset in the period of 1948-2014, the temperature contrast between the Arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift is compared. An index measuring the temperature contrast is defined as the difference between the Arctic zone (70° N-90° N) and the equatorial region (10° S-10° N). The variations of the temperature contrast can be mainly explained by the local sea ice variations through sea ice-albedo-temperature feedback before 1976/1977 and the energy transportation to the Arctic together with the local sea ice after 1976/1977. The impacts of the Arctic minus equator (AmE) temperature contrast on the high-level westerly jet, and the polar easterlies show a significant difference during the two periods. A strong temperature anomaly associated with the temperature contrast in the two periods is found in the high latitude, but different patterns are observed at the high and low levels. The correlated water vapor appeared in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent before 1976/1977 and moved to northeastern Canada and eastern North America after 1976/1977.

  15. Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

    2014-12-01

    The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total

  16. Fine sediment transport by tidal asymmetry in the high-concentrated Ems River: indications for a regime shift in response to channel deepening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterwerp, Johan C.

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an analysis of the observed up-river transport of fine sediments in the Ems River, Germany/Netherlands, using a 1DV POINT MODEL, accounting for turbulence-induced flocculation and sediment-induced buoyancy destruction. From this analysis, it is inferred that the net up-river transport is mainly due to an asymmetry in vertical mixing, often referred to as internal tidal asymmetry. It is argued that the large stratification observed during ebb should be attributed to a profound interaction between turbulence-induced flocculation and sediment-induced buoyancy destruction, as a result of which the river became an efficient trap for fine suspended sediment. Moreover, an asymmetry in flocculation processes was found, such that during flood relative large flocs are transported at relative large flow velocity high in the water column, whereas during ebb, the larger flocs are transported at smaller velocities close to the bed—this asymmetry contributes to the large trapping mentioned above. The internal tidal asymmetry and asymmetry in flocculation processes are both driven by the pronounced asymmetry in flow velocities, with flood velocities almost twice the ebb values. It is further argued that this efficient trapping is the result of a continuous deepening of the river, and occurs when concentrations in the river become typically a few hundred mg/l; this was the case during the 1990 survey analyzed in this paper. We also speculate that a second regime shift did occur in the river when fluid mud layers become so thick that net transport rates are directly related to the asymmetry in flow velocity itself, probably still in conjunction with internal asymmetry as well. This would yield an efficient mechanism to transport large amounts of fine sediment far up-river, as currently observed.

  17. Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

    2016-04-01

    Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

  18. Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

  19. Legal abortion: the impending obsolescence of the trimester framework.

    PubMed

    Mangel, C P

    1988-01-01

    Women who wish to terminate a pregnancy, and physicians willing to perform abortions, are subject to increasing harassment from groups which challenge the constitutional abortion right upheld by the Supreme Court in Roe v. Wade. Their vulnerability, in fact, parallels the vulnerability of the abortion right. This Article analyzes the inherent weakness and impending obsolescence of the trimester framework established in Roe. Present medical evidence of maternal health risks and fetal viability demonstrates that the trimester framework is inconsistent with current medical knowledge, and will likely be rendered obsolete by developments in medical technology. The Article suggests that adoption of an alternative constitutional basis for legal abortion is necessary to preserve the abortion right, and explores the utility of two arguments grounded in the equal protection doctrine. Finally, it discusses means of preserving legal abortion within the confines of the trimester framework established in Roe v. Wade.

  20. Percutaneous Stabilization of Impending Pathological Fracture of the Proximal Femur

    SciTech Connect

    Deschamps, Frederic Farouil, Geoffroy Hakime, Antoine Teriitehau, Christophe Barah, Ali Baere, Thierry de

    2012-12-15

    Objective: Percutaneous osteosynthesis plus cementoplasty (POPC) is a minimally invasive technique that has never been reported before and that we have prospectively evaluated for patients with impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur. Methods: We performed POPC in 12 patients (3 males, 9 females) with metastasis of the proximal femur with a high risk of fracture (Mirels' score {>=}8) between February 2010 and July 2011. Patients were not candidates for standard surgical stabilization. We analyzed the feasibility, duration, and complication of the procedure, the risk of fracture, the decrease in pain (Visual Analog Scale, VAS), and length of stay in hospital. Data were prospectively collected in all patients. Results: The mean Mirels' score was 9.8 {+-} 1.2 (range, 8-11). The technical success was 100%. POPC was performed under general anesthesia (n = 6) or conscious sedation (n = 6). The mean duration was 110 {+-} 43 (range, 60-180) minutes. All patients stood up and walked the second day after the procedure. The average length of stay in the hospital was 4 {+-} 1.6 (range, 2-7) days. We experienced two hematomas in two patients and no thromboembolic complication. For symptomatic patients (n = 8), VAS decreased from 6.5/10 (range, 2-9) before treatment to 1/10 (range, 0-3) 1 month after. No fracture occurred after a median follow-up of 145 (range, 12-608) days. Conclusions: POPC for impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur seems to be a promising alternative for cancer patients who are not candidates for surgical stabilization. Further studies are required to confirm this preliminary experience.

  1. Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, E.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, P.

    2005-01-01

    Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1. smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd

  2. Going Lean: Impending Money Woes Force Tough Choices, Forecast Fundamental Shift in Community College Funding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joch, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The numbers were already bad, and they keep getting worse, for the Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD). Given the weak economy, administrators planned for a 5 percent reduction in state funding in the 2010-11 academic year. The actual reduction ballooned to more than 7.5 percent, an additional $13 million that DCCCD would be forced to…

  3. Tectonic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty in impending corneal perforation using cryopreserved cornea.

    PubMed

    Jang, Ji Hye; Chang, Sung Dong

    2011-04-01

    We report a case of tectonic corneal transplantation for impending corneal perforation to preserve anatomic integrity using cryopreserved donor tissue. An 82-year-old woman exhibiting impending corneal perforation suffered from moderate ocular pain in the left eye for one week. After abnormal tissues around the impending perforation area were carefully peeled away using a Crescent blade and Vannas scissors, the patient received tectonic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty using a cryopreserved cornea stored in Optisol GS® solution at -70℃ for four weeks. At six months after surgery, the cornea remained transparent and restored the normal corneal thickness. There were no complications such as corneal haze or scars, graft rejection, recurrent corneal ulcer, and postoperative rise of intraocular pressure. Cryopreserved donor lamellar tissue is an effective substitute in emergency tectonic lamellar keratoplasty, such as impending corneal perforation and severe necrotic corneal keratitis.

  4. Vegetation maps at the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act (1934): A baseline to evaluate rangeland change after a regime shift

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Data from New Mexico range survey maps created shortly after the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934 have been preserved and are being used to document changes in vegetation. The range survey data were collected at the time of a critical shift in rangeland policy and practice in federal lands...

  5. Synchronous climate-driven regime shifts at the onset of the Holocene inferred from diatom records in lakes of the Greater Yellowstone region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Y.; Stone, J.; Fritz, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Diatom records covering the late-glacial and early Holocene periods were recovered from three lakes in different areas of Yellowstone National Park to investigate the impacts of large-scale climatic change on aquatic ecosystem evolution following deglaciation. All lakes show synchronous diatom community shifts from the dominance of tychoplanktic Fragilaria species to benthic species in the interval of 11,300-11500 cal yr BP, indicating a regional decrease in effective moisture. The synchroneity of changes in diatom community structure suggests the influence of overlying large-scale climatic change on lacustrine ecosystems. A major shift in the same interval also is evident in other proxy records, such as pollen and charcoal, throughout the Yellowstone region at the late-glacial/early-Holocene transition. This suggests that the summer insolation maximum induced a widespread and rapid reorganization of ecosystem structure and function.

  6. Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator.

    PubMed

    Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Dyck, Markus G; Ferguson, Steven H; Higdon, Jeff W

    2016-08-01

    Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010-2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large-bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice-free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on-ice feeding opportunities for polar bears. PMID:27547372

  7. Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator.

    PubMed

    Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Dyck, Markus G; Ferguson, Steven H; Higdon, Jeff W

    2016-08-01

    Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010-2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large-bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice-free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on-ice feeding opportunities for polar bears.

  8. Tracking abrupt climate shifts with stable isotopes: geochemical evidence for dynamic temperature, precipitation and seasonality regimes during the last deglaciation (8 to 15ka BP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candy, I.; Blockley, S.; Matthews, I.; Palmer, A.; Darvill, C.

    2012-12-01

    The interval between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the stabilisation of climatic conditions during the Holocene (ca 8ka BP) is well-known to have been punctuated with abrupt climatic shifts on a range of different time scales. This is clearly seen in the oxygen and deuterium isotope signal of the Greenland ice core records (e.g. NGRIP). How the magnitude and duration of these events translates across a region, such as western Europe, is however, unclear, primarily because many traditional proxies do not respond rapidly enough to provide a clear expression of abrupt climatic events. In this paper, we present a range of new oxygen and carbon isotopic records from lacustrine carbonate sequences, and a review of existing datasets, spanning the interval 8 to 15ka BP. These records lie on W-E and N-S transects across the British Isles allowing the spatial variability of the structure and magnitude of abrupt climatic events to be investigated. The oxygen isotopic signal is primarily driven by temperature and indicates that the climatic structure of abrupt events, such as the Lateglacial interstadial, is highly variable over relatively short spatial scales. Records from eastern Britain suggest patterns of warming and cooling in the Lateglacial interstadial (GI-1) comparable to those observed in Greenland, where a temperature maxima occurs early in GI-1. However records in western Britain provide evidence for more subdued climatic oscillations with peak temperatures occurring later in GI-1. Spatial variability in the isotopic expression of abrupt climatic events allows the role of different factors such as the position of the polar front, the influence of the thermohaline conveyer and the influence of maritime versus continental climates, to be investigated. This study also indicates that a major depletion event occurs in the δ18O value of lake carbonates during the early Holocene which affects all currently known sequences. This depletion event cannot be explained by

  9. Tracking abrupt climate shifts with stable isotopes in lacustrine sediments: geochemical evidence for dynamic temperature, precipitation and seasonality regimes during the last deglaciation (8 to 15ka BP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candy, Ian; Blockley, Simon; Matthews, Ian; Palmer, Adrian; Darvill, Chris

    2013-04-01

    The interval between the Last Glacial Maximum (L.G.M.) and the stabilisation of climatic conditions during the Holocene (ca 8ka BP) is well-known to have been punctuated with abrupt climatic shifts on a range of time scales. This is clearly seen in the oxygen and deuterium isotope signal of the Greenland ice core records (e.g. NGRIP). How the magnitude and duration of these events translates across a region, such as western Europe, is however, unclear, primarily because many traditional proxies do not respond rapidly enough to provide a clear expression of abrupt climatic events. In this paper we present a range of new oxygen and carbon isotopic records, and a review of existing datasets, from lacustrine carbonate sequences spanning the interval 8 to 15ka BP. These records lie on W-E and N-S transects across the British Isles allowing the spatial variability of the structure and magnitude of abrupt climatic events to be investigated. The oxygen isotopic signal is primarily driven by temperature and indicates that the climatic structure of abrupt events in this time interval, the Lateglacial interstadial for example, is highly variable over relatively small distances. Records from the east of Britain suggest patterns of warming and cooling in the Lateglacial interstadial comparable to that observable in Greenland (e.g. a temperature maximum occurring early in the interstadial), whilst record in the west provide evidence for more subdued climatic oscillations with peak temperatures occurring late in the interstadial. Spatial variability in the isotopic expression of abrupt climatic events allows the role of different factors; i.e. the position of the polar front, the influence of the thermohaline conveyer and the influence of maritime versus continental climates, to be investigated. This work also indicates that a major depletion event occurs in the δ18O value of lake carbonates during the early Holocene which effects all currently known sequences. This depletion

  10. Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Watanabe, Tatsuro

    2006-02-01

    climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.

  11. A Study of Community College Leadership Practices in Response to the Impending Leadership Crisis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Jane

    2012-01-01

    The literature attests to a leadership crisis that is predicted to impact leadership pipelines in just about every industry imaginable, including community colleges. This impending crisis is thought to be a result of baby boomer retirements plus the lack of next generation workers equipped with the skills to replace them. Community colleges are…

  12. The Impending Leadership Crisis in Historically Black College and University (HBCU) Libraries: A Mixed Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Youmans, Tasha Lucas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to disclose the claims of an impending shortage of librarians in academic libraries as it relates to Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). The target population of this study was HBCU libraries that had a full-time equivalent enrollment of 3,000 students or more and that were accredited by the Southern…

  13. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

    PubMed

    Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

    2003-09-22

    It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

  14. Dallying with death: the impending crisis in India.

    PubMed

    Shreedhar, J

    1994-08-01

    More than one million Indians are already infected with HIV and an epidemiologist at the AIDS Control and Prevention Project's regional office in Bangkok predicts that India will have the largest HIV-positive population in the world by 1995. Sexual networking in which people have sexual relations with two or more partners, either serially or concurrently, is the principal mode by which HIV is disseminated through large populations with a multiplier effect. Since physical symptoms of HIV infection typically are not manifest for many years after initial infection, however, infected individuals and their partners generally do not know that one or both are infected with HIV. Many people do not believe that HIV exists and that they may be at risk of infection. As such, it is very difficult to convince them to protect themselves against exposure. The picture of HIV and AIDS in 1994 is not one of infection exclusively among prostitutes, drug users, and homosexuals, but one of a shift from homosexual to heterosexual transmission in many areas and rapidly rising rates of infection among housewives and other women outside commercial sex activities. Studies in Thailand have documented the high incidence of sexual intercourse among Thai men with prostitutes, wives, and girlfriends. A World Health Organization study in Madras, India, found that while monogamy and sex within marriage are stressed in public, almost 4600 men visit prostitutes daily in the city. Generally visiting commercial sex establishments together and sharing one woman, friends drink heavily before having sex and tend to not use condoms. So many men have sex with prostitutes in Madras because of the segregation of the sexes in Tamil society, the late marriage age among men (26-30 years old), the large number and steady inflow to the city of single young men searching for work, the cultural perception of the mother as sacred, the male desire to lose one's virginity before an arranged marriage, and the anonymity

  15. Asynchronous responses of fish assemblages to climate-driven ocean regime shifts between the upper and deep layer in the Ulleung basin of the East Sea from 1986 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Sukgeun

    2014-03-01

    Past studies suggested that a basin-wide regime shift occurred in 1988-1989, impacting marine ecosystem and fish assemblages in the western North Pacific. However, the detailed mechanisms involved in this phenomenon are still yet unclear. In the Ulleung basin of the East Sea, filefish, anchovy and sardine dominated the commercial fish catches in 1986-1992, but thereafter common squid comprised > 60% of the total catch in 1993-2010. To illuminate the mechanisms causing this dramatic shift in dominant fisheries species, I related changes in depth-specific oceanographic conditions from 0 to 500 m to inter-annual changes in the fish assemblage structure from 1986 to 2010. In the upper layer of 50-100 m depths, water temperature suddenly increased in 1987-1989, and consequently warm-water epi-pelagic species (anchovy, chub mackerel, and common squid) became dominant, while sardine, relatively cold-water epi-pelagic species, nearly disappeared. An annual index of the volume transport by the Korea Strait Bottom Cold Water, originating from the deep water of the Ulleung Basin, displayed a sudden intensification in 1992-1993, accompanied by decreased water temperature and increased water density in the deep water and replacement of dominant bentho-pelagic species from filefish, warm-water species, to herring and cod, cold-water species. The results suggest that climate-driven oceanic changes and the subsequent ecological impacts can occur asynchronously, often with time lags of several years, between the upper and the deep layer, and between epi-pelagic and deepwater fish assemblages.

  16. Short-impending Anomaly of GPS Observation and its Implications in Yunnan Earthquake Predication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, M.; Shao, D.; Zhang, S.; Wu, T.; Wang, F.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, L.; Qian, X.

    2015-12-01

    This study proposals a new method, short-impending anomaly of GPS (SIA-GPS), to predict the coming earthquake. Based on long-term GNSS observations, we observed the abnormal deformations occurred around the active faults in Yunnan area before the earthquakes of magnitude MW³5.0. We constructed the regional strain fields with networks filtering, and extracted the abnormal deformations of each grid before each strong coming earthquake. Such special deformations of the GNSS observation are able to serve for short-impending earthquake prediction. The SIA-GPS method includes three steps. Firstly, Yunnan region is divided into multiple grids using interpolation calculation and the uniform displacement field is created. The area velocity field is obtained based on the continuous GNSS observations using GAMIT/GLOBK software. Next, the earthquake response capacity of each grid is evaluated in time-series analysis focusing on strains, and the short-term anomalies are easily extracted. Lastly, all the abnormal signals are carefully diagnosed in the considerations of tectonic movements. As examples, we predicated 19 earthquakes using the (SIA-GPS) method. 14 earthquakes of them are successful within the tolerable special and time misfits, and 5 of them do not occurred. The code of predication for short-impending earthquake requires that all the coming earthquakes of Mw³5 must be predicated, the maximum time error for coming event is three months, and the corresponding spatial misfit allows 5 grids. Following this role, 14 earthquakes of Mw³5 are predicted using SIA-GPS indicators with success rate 73.6%. For such experiences, SIA-GPS method has been utilized as a benefit tool to predicate the potential coming earthquakes in Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province. Keywords:Short-impending anomaly of GPS, SIA-GPS, time series of analysis, GNSS observation, earthquake prediction, surface deformation, strain, Yunnan area.

  17. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  18. Impending Crisis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herman, Roger E.; Olivo, Thomas G.; Gioia, Joyce L.

    Filled with evidence and advice for corporate leaders in for-profit, not-for-profit, governmental, and education organizations, this book addresses how to evaluate one's organization's vulnerability and take action. An introduction is followed by a section on the new roles of the chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial…

  19. Regime change?

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K. W.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  20. Mechanical perturbations applied during impending movement evoke startle-like responses

    PubMed Central

    Ravichandran, Vengateswaran J.; Shemmell, Jonathan B.; Perreault, Eric J.

    2010-01-01

    Stretch reflexes have been considered one of the simplest circuits in the human nervous system. Yet, their role is controversial given that they assist or resist an imposed perturbation depending on the task instruction. Evidence shows that a loud acoustic stimulus applied prior to an impending movement elicits a movement-direction dependent muscle activity. In our study, we found that a perturbation can also trigger this early onset of movement, if applied during movement preparation. These responses were also perturbation direction dependent. This suggests an interaction of between the limb-stabilizing stretch reflexes and the voluntary activity. PMID:19963543

  1. Plasmapheresis for hemolytic crisis and impending acute liver failure in Wilson disease.

    PubMed

    Asfaha, Samuel; Almansori, Mohammed; Qarni, Uwais; Gutfreund, Klaus S

    2007-01-01

    Wilsonian crisis is fatal unless copper removal is initiated early and liver transplantation is performed for patients that fulfill criteria for a poor outcome. We report a patient presenting with severe hemolysis and impending acute liver failure that made a rapid recovery with prompt initiation of plasmapheresis and chelation therapy. Rapid copper removal by plasmapheresis alleviated hemolysis and liver injury. A review of the literature was performed examining the use of plasmapheresis and albumin dialysis with continuous veno-venous hemodialysis or molecular adsorbents and recirculating system.

  2. Detection of impending graft rejection and relapse by lineage-specific chimerism analysis.

    PubMed

    Lion, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    Molecular surveillance of hematopoietic chimerism has become part of the routine diagnostic program in patients after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Chimerism testing permits early prediction and documentation of successful engraftment, and facilitates early detection of impending graft rejection. In patients transplanted for treatment of malignant hematological disorders, monitoring of chimerism can provide an early indication of incipient disease relapse. The investigation of chimerism has therefore become an indispensable tool for the management of patients during the posttransplant period. Growing use of nonmyeloablative conditioning, which is associated with prolonged duration of mixed hematopoietic chimerism, has further increased the clinical importance of chimerism analysis. At present, the most commonly used technical approach to the investigation of chimerism is microsatellite analysis by PCR. The investigation of chimerism within specific leukocyte subsets isolated from peripheral blood or bone marrow samples by flow-sorting or magnetic beads-based techniques provides more specific information on processes underlying the dynamics of donor/recipient chimerism. Moreover, cell subset-specific analysis permits the assessment of impending complications at a significantly higher sensitivity, thus providing a basis for earlier treatment decisions.

  3. Secretory phospholipase A(2) predicts impending acute chest syndrome in sickle cell disease.

    PubMed

    Styles, L A; Aarsman, A J; Vichinsky, E P; Kuypers, F A

    2000-11-01

    Acute chest syndrome (ACS) is the leading cause of death in sickle cell disease. Severe ACS often develops in the course of a vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC), but currently there are no predictors for its development. Secretory phospholipase A(2) (sPLA(2)), a potent inflammatory mediator, is elevated in ACS, and previous work suggests that sPLA(2) predicts impending ACS. We prospectively evaluated sPLA(2) concentration during 21 admissions for VOC; 6 of these patients went on to develop ACS. Elevation of sPLA(2) was detected all 6 patients 24 to 48 hours before ACS was clinically diagnosed. Adding the requirement for fever raised the specificity of sPLA(2) to 87% while retaining 100% sensitivity. These data indicate that sPLA(2) can be useful in alerting the clinician to patients with impending ACS. In addition, sPLA(2) may be useful for instituting early therapies to prevent or reduce the clinical morbidity of ACS. PMID:11050014

  4. Impending anterior ischemic optic neuropathy with elements of retinal vein occlusion in a patient on interferon for polycythemia vera.

    PubMed

    Rue, Kelly S; Hirsch, Louis K; Sadun, Alfredo A

    2012-01-01

    We describe the course and likely pathophysiology of impending anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (AION) and retinal vein occlusion in a 56-year-old man with polycythemia vera managed with interferon alpha for 2 years. Our patient presented with decreased vision, scintillating scotomata, and floaters. Fundus examination findings and results of a fluorescein angiogram led to the diagnosis of impending AION and retinal vein occlusion. Considering that both polycythemia vera and interferon have possible influences on vascular occlusion and optic disc edema, we stopped interferon treatment and immediately attempted to treat the polycythemia vera empirically with pentoxifylline and any interferon-associated inflammation with prednisone. Our patient experienced complete resolution of fundus abnormalities and return of normal vision within 3 weeks, which may be attributed to our successful treatment of both etiologies. Thus, further study is warranted to elucidate the treatment of both polycythemia vera and interferon-induced impending AION.

  5. Death talk: gender differences in talking about one’s own impending death

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background According to common practice based on a generally agreed interpretation of Icelandic law on the rights of patients, health care professionals cannot discuss prognosis and treatment with a patient’s family without that patient’s consent. This limitation poses ethical problems, because research has shown that, in the absence of insight and communication regarding a patient’s impending death, patient’s significant others may subsequently experience long-term psychological distress. It is also reportedly important for most dying patients to know that health care personnel are comfortable with talking about death and dying. There is only very limited information concerning gender differences regarding death talk in terminal care patients. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of detailed prospective “field notes” from chaplain interviews of all patients aged 30–75 years receiving palliative care and/or with DNR (do not resuscitate) written on their charts who requested an interview with a hospital chaplain during a period of 3 years. After all study patients had died, these notes were analyzed to assess the prevalence of patient-initiated discussions regarding their own impending death and whether non-provocative evocation-type interventions had facilitated such communication. Results During the 3-year study period, 195 interviews (114 men, 81 women) were conducted. According to the field notes, 80% of women and 30% of men initiated death talk within the planned 30-minute interviews. After evoking interventions, 59% (67/114) of men and 91% (74/81) of women engaged in death talk. Even with these interventions, at the end of the first interview gender differences were still statistically significant (p = 0.001). By the end of the second interview gender difference was less, but still statistically significant (p = 0.001). Conclusions Gender differences in terminal care communication may be radically reduced by using simple evocation

  6. The management of impending myocardial infarction using coronary artery by-pass grafting and an intra-aortic balloon pump.

    PubMed

    Harris, P L; Woollard, K; Bartoli, A; Makey, A R

    1980-01-01

    Of 33 patients with impending myocardial infarction 25 were treated using a combination of coronary artery by-pass grafting and intra-aortic balloon pumping. Eight patients were treated with coronary artery by-pass grafting alone. Twenty-two of the 25 patients who were treated with the combined technique made a full recovery. Three patients sustained definite myocardial infarctions and one of these died. Five of the 8 patients treated by grafting alone suffered infarction and of these 3 died. The value of intra-aortic balloon pumping in combination with coronary artery by-pass grafting in the management of impending myocardial infarction is discussed.

  7. Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meacher, J.; Chen, H. M.

    1974-01-01

    A test program was conducted with the objective of developing a method and equipment for on-line monitoring of installed ball bearings to detect deterioration or impending failure of the bearings. The program was directed at the spin-axis bearings of a control moment gyro. The bearings were tested at speeds of 6000 and 8000 rpm, thrust loads from 50 to 1000 pounds, with a wide range of lubrication conditions, with and without a simulated fatigue spall implanted in the inner race ball track. It was concluded that a bearing monitor system based on detection and analysis of modulations of a fault indicating bearing resonance frequency can provide a low threshold of sensitivity.

  8. Case Report: Frontalis sign for early bedside consideration of impending uncal herniation

    PubMed Central

    Munakomi, Sunil; Mohan Kumar, Bijoy

    2016-01-01

    It is prudent to have early diagnosis and timely management of uncal herniation for better management of neurosurgical patients. There are several clinical and radiological armamentariums that aid in early recognition of the condition. Through this case report, we try to highlight a simple bedside clinical sign that can be a valuable adjunct in early recognition of the impending uncal herniation especially in scenarios wherein it is difficult to assess the pupillary size and reactivity correctly. The improvement in the sign also confirms the resolution of the mass effect in the postoperative period. This is especially helpful for doctors working in the periphery or in resource restrained areas, for a timely referral of the patient to tertiary centre.

  9. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    PubMed

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  10. Case Report: Frontalis sign for early bedside consideration of impending uncal herniation

    PubMed Central

    Munakomi, Sunil; Mohan Kumar, Bijoy

    2016-01-01

    It is prudent to have early diagnosis and timely management of uncal herniation for better management of neurosurgical patients. There are several clinical and radiological armamentariums that aid in early recognition of the condition. Through this case report, we try to highlight a simple bedside clinical sign that can be a valuable adjunct in early recognition of the impending uncal herniation especially in scenarios wherein it is difficult to assess the pupillary size and reactivity correctly. The improvement in the sign also confirms the resolution of the mass effect in the postoperative period. This is especially helpful for doctors working in the periphery or in resource restrained areas, for a timely referral of the patient to tertiary centre. PMID:27635220

  11. [Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura after vascular prosthesis implantation for impending rupture of an abdominal aortic aneurysm].

    PubMed

    Naito, Chiaki; Ogawa, Yoshiyuki; Yanagisawa, Kunio; Ishizaki, Takuma; Mihara, Masahiro; Handa, Hiroshi; Isonishi, Ayami; Hayakawa, Masaki; Matsumoto, Masanori; Nojima, Yoshihisa

    2016-03-01

    Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) is caused by autoantibodies against ADAMTS13. TTP patients run a rapidly fatal course unless immediate plasma exchange (PEX) is initiated upon diagnosis. Herein, we report a 72-year-old man with TTP, which developed after he underwent artificial blood vessel replacement surgery for an abdominal aneurysm with impending rupture. In the perioperative period, the patient received several platelet transfusions for severe thrombocytopenia (minimum platelet count: 0.6×10(4)/μl). Thereafter, he was admitted to our department for rapidly progressing coma with multiple cerebral infarctions, and was transferred to the ICU. Based on the tentative diagnosis of TTP, we immediately began PEX and steroid pulse therapy. The diagnosis was confirmed thereafter by markedly reduced ADAMTS13 activity (<0.5%) and his being positive for the ADAMTS13 inhibitor. We performed PEX for five consecutive days and administered high-dose prednisolone (PSL). On the second hospital day (HD), his platelet count rose along with improvement of his consciousness level. The ADAMTS13 inhibitor was not detected on the 10th HD. TTP did not relapse and his general condition improved despite tapering of PSL. In this case, by closely monitoring ADAMTS13-related parameters and minimizing the number of plasma exchanges, the patient was able to achieve a remission without the use of boosting inhibitors. PMID:27076251

  12. Prophylactic bilateral intramedullary femoral nails for bisphosphonate-associated signs of impending subtrochanteric hip fracture.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Richard S; Beebe, Kathleen S; Benevenia, Joseph

    2010-04-01

    In the short and midterm, bisphosphonates have proven highly efficacious in the prevention of low-energy fractures, but long-term results and adverse effects have yet to be definitively identified. Of particular concern are emerging reports of long-term bisphosphonate users presenting with unusual low-energy subtrochanteric femur fractures. Perhaps associated with hyperactive bone remodeling leading to an eventually weakened bony architecture, the efficacy of longer-term bisphosphonate use has come into question, especially in those with >5 years of therapy.This article describes a case of a 65-year-old woman with a 10-year history of bisphosphonate use who presented with prodromal thigh pain and characteristic radiographic findings indicative of potential impending subtrochanteric insufficiency fracture. Supported by reports in the literature, unique characteristics of a certain clinical picture warn of potential bisphosphonate-associated subtrochanteric hip fracture; to our knowledge, we present the first reported prophylactic bilateral femoral intramedullary nailing to prevent fragility fracture. A deeper look into the biochemistry behind associated bony weakness caused by long-term incorporation of bisphosphonates is needed, especially if an endpoint to the therapy is to be determined. However, with mounting clinical evidence supporting the risk of bisphosphonate-associated fragility fracture, a characteristic radiographic appearance and clinical presentation cannot be ignored. In the interim, elective surgery may be an efficacious alternative in the treatment of an expected, readily preventable fracture.

  13. Denial of impending death: a discourse analysis of the palliative care literature.

    PubMed

    Zimmermann, Camilla

    2004-10-01

    Terminally ill patients and their families are often referred to as being "in denial" of impending death. This study uses the qualitative method of discourse analysis to investigate the usage of the term "denial" in the contemporary hospice and palliative care literature. A Medline search (1970-2001) was performed combining the text words "deny" and "denial" with the subject headings "terminal care", "palliative care" and "hospice care," and restricted to English articles discussing death denial in adults. The 30 articles were analysed using a constant comparison technique and emerging themes regarding the meaning and usage of the words "deny" and "denial" identified. This paper focusses on the theme of denial as an individual psychological process. Three dominant subthemes were distinguished: denial as an unconscious "defence mechanism", denial as "healthy" and denial as temporary. The analysis focusses on the intertextuality of these themes with each other and with previous texts on the denial of death. Elements of the psychoanalytic definition of denial as an unconscious defence mechanism are retained in the literature but are interwoven with new themes on patient choice. The result is an overall discourse that is conflictual and at times self-contradictory but overall consistent with the biomedical model of illness. I suggest that the representation of death denial elaborated in these articles may be related to a larger discourse on dying in contemporary Western society, which both invites patients to participate in the planning of their death and labels those who do not comply. PMID:15279932

  14. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    SciTech Connect

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior; Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  15. Eluding catastrophic shifts

    PubMed Central

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A.; Levin, Simon A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences. PMID:25825772

  16. Eluding catastrophic shifts.

    PubMed

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A; Levin, Simon A; Muñoz, Miguel A

    2015-04-14

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences.

  17. Neutrophil functions and cytokines expression profile in buffaloes with impending postpartum reproductive disorders.

    PubMed

    Patra, Manas Kumar; Kumar, Harendra; Nandi, Sukdeb

    2013-10-01

    The study was conducted to correlate the periparturient immune status in terms of neutrophil functions and cytokine expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cell culture with impending postpartum reproductive disorders in buffaloes. Forty pregnant buffaloes were observed for occurrence of postpartum reproductive disorders (PRD), i.e., metritis, endometritis and delayed uterine involution etc., during one week prepartum to four weeks postpartum period. A representative number (n = 6) of buffaloes that did not develop any PRD were included in group I (healthy, control), while the animals which experienced PRD were assigned into group II (PRD, n = 8). The blood samples were collected at weekly interval from one week prepartum to four weeks postpartum period considering the day of calving as 'd 0'. Differential leucocytes counts, superoxide and hydrogen peroxide production activity in isolated neutrophils and the mRNA expression profile of cytokines i.e., IL-2, IL-4 and IFN-γ in PBMC culture were studied in all the samples. A higher total leucocytes, neutrophil and band cells count along with impaired neutrophil functions i.e., lowered level of production of superoxide and hydrogen peroxide before parturition and during early postpartum period were observed in buffaloes developing PRD. Further, a lower expression of IL-2, IFN-γ and IL-4 mRNA in PBMC culture was observed at calving in buffaloes that subsequently developed PRD at later postpartum. Thus, suppression in neutrophil function and cytokine expression at prepartum to early postpartum period predisposes the buffaloes to develop postpartum reproductive disorders. Hence, monitoring of neutrophils function and cytokine expression profile would be effective to predict certain reproductive disorders at late pregnancy or immediately after parturition in buffaloes. In future, this may be a novel approach for determining suitable management and therapeutic decisions for prevention of commonly occurring reproductive

  18. Shifting Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  19. Merging of Rhine flow regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bronstert, Axel; Bürger, Gerd

    2016-04-01

    The Rhine flow regime is changing: (a) in the alpine nival regime, snow melt floods occur earlier in the year and (b) in the pluvial middle-Rhine regime, rainfall induced flood magnitudes rise. The seasonality of each is currently separated in time, but it is conceivable that this may shift due to climate change. If extremes of both flood types coincide, this would create a new type of hydrologic extreme with disastrous consequences. Quantifying the probability for a future overlap of pluvial and nival floods is therefore of high relevance to society and particularly to reinsurance companies. In order to investigate possible changes in magnitude and timing of flood types, we are developing a chain of physical models for spatio-temporal combination of flood probabilities. As input, we aim to use stochastically downscaled temperature and rainfall extremes from climate model weather projections. Preliminary research shows a six-week forward-shift of peak discharge at the nival gauge Maxau in the past century. The aim of presenting our early-stage work as a poster is to induce an exchange of ideas with fellow scientists in close research disciplines.

  20. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael B.; Hargens, Alan R.; Dulchavsky, Scott A.; Ebert, Douglas J.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Laurie, Steven S.; Garcia, Kathleen M.; Sargsyan, Ashot E.; Martin, David S.; Liu, John; Macias, Brandon R.; Arbeille, Philippe; Danielson, Richard; Chang, Douglas; Gunga, Hanns-Christian; Johnston, Smith L.; Westby, Christian M.; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert J.; Smith, Scott M.

    2016-01-01

    We hypothesize that microgravity-induced cephalad fluid shifts elevate intracranial pressure (ICP) and contribute to VIIP. We will test this hypothesis and a possible countermeasure in ISS astronauts.

  1. Manual Aspiration Thrombectomy with Stent Placement: Rapid and Effective Treatment for Phlegmasia Cerulea Dolens with Impending Venous Gangrene

    SciTech Connect

    Oguzkurt, Levent Tercan, Fahri; Ozkan, Ugur

    2008-01-15

    Phlegmasia cerulea dolens is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication of acute deep vein thrombosis. It is an emergency and delay in treatment may cause death or loss of the patient's limb. Surgical thrombectomy is the recommended treatment in venous gangrene. Catheter-directed intrathrombus thrombolysis has been reported as successful, but it may require a lengthy infusion. Manual aspiration thrombectomy may clear the entire thrombus with no need for thrombolytic administration and provide rapid and effective treatment for patients with phlegmasia cerulea dolens with impending venous gangrene.

  2. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Laurie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Gunga, H.; Johnston, S.; Westby, C.; Ribeiro, L.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Mechanisms responsible for the ocular structural and functional changes that characterize the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (ICP) syndrome (VIIP) are unclear, but hypothesized to be secondary to the cephalad fluid shift experienced in spaceflight. This study will relate the fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight with VIIP symptoms. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, can be predicted preflight with acute hemodynamic manipulations, and also if lower body negative pressure (LBNP) can reverse the VIIP effects. METHODS: Physiologic variables will be examined pre-, in- and post-flight in 10 International Space Station crewmembers including: fluid compartmentalization (D2O and NaBr dilution); interstitial tissue thickness (ultrasound); vascular dimensions and dynamics (ultrasound and MRI (including cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility)); ocular measures (optical coherence tomography, intraocular pressure, ultrasound); and ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight measures will be assessed while upright, supine and during 15 deg head-down tilt (HDT). In-flight measures will occur early and late during 6 or 12 month missions. LBNP will be evaluated as a countermeasure during HDT and during spaceflight. RESULTS: The first two crewmembers are in the preflight testing phase. Preliminary results characterize the acute fluid shifts experienced from upright, to supine and HDT postures (increased stroke volume, jugular dimensions and measures of ICP) which are reversed with 25 millimeters Hg LBNP. DISCUSSION: Initial results indicate that acute cephalad fluid shifts may be related to VIIP symptoms, but also may be reversible by LBNP. The effect of a chronic fluid shift has yet to be evaluated. Learning Objectives: Current spaceflight VIIP research is described

  3. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Lauriie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Ribeiro, L.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Johnston, S.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2016-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 50% of ISS astronauts experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's preflight conditions and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. METHODS: We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by

  4. Paradigm Shifts in the Treatment of Appendicitis.

    PubMed

    Mak, Grace Zee; Loeff, Deborah S

    2016-07-01

    Acute appendicitis is the most common cause of emergent surgery in children. Historically, surgical dogma dictated emergent appendectomy due to concern for impending perforation. Recently, however, there has been a paradigm shift in both the understanding of its pathophysiology as well as its treatment to more nonoperative management. No longer is it considered a spectrum from uncomplicated appendicitis inevitably progressing to complicated appendicitis over time. Rather, uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis are now considered two distinct pathophysiologic entities. This change requires not only educating the patients and their families but also the general practitioners who will be managing treatment expectations and caring for patients long term. In this article, we review the pathophysiology of appendicitis, including the differentiation between uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis, as well as the new treatment paradigms. [Pediatr Ann. 2016;45(7):e235-e240.]. PMID:27403670

  5. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Platts, S.

    2014-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 30% of ISS astronauts experience more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the space flight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration space flight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during space flight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight condition and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound

  6. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  7. Surgical treatment of impending paradoxical embolization associated with pulmonary embolism in a patient with heterozygosis of factor V Leiden.

    PubMed

    Citro, Rodolfo; Panza, Antonello; Bottiglieri, Giuseppe; Leone, Rocco; Provenza, Gennaro; Gregorio, Giovanni; Di Benedetto, Giuseppe; Bossone, Eduardo

    2013-10-01

    We report an unusual case of impending paradoxical embolization in a 69-year-old woman heterozygote carrier of factor V Leiden mutation. The patient presented to the emergency room with the clinical scenario of massive pulmonary embolism. Serial echocardiographic examinations revealed a large thrombus in the right atrium floating via a patent foramen ovale into the left atrium. Anticoagulation therapy was started. After 72 h, due to the unresolved thrombus, the patient underwent surgical treatment consisting of complete excision of the thrombus, closure of the foramen ovale, and pulmonary embolectomy. No in-hospital complications were noted. At 1-year follow-up, the patient is doing well on long-term anticoagulation treatment free of thromboembolic events.

  8. Gender and Shifts in Higher Education Managerial Regimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carvalho, Teresa; Machado, Maria de Lurdes

    2010-01-01

    While Portugal is one of the European countries with a high representation of women in higher education, there is both horizontal and vertical segregation. The way universities and especially managerial positions are culturally embedded by masculinity is one of the obstacles women have traditionally faced. Recently, higher education institutions…

  9. Scarcity and Surplus: Shifting Regimes of Childhood in Nicaragua

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tully, Sheila R.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the multiple meanings of children and childhood in Nicaragua during periods of dramatic sociopolitical and economic transitions. The article compares the state's responsibilities to Nicaraguan children and their families during the decade of revolution and first year of the post-revolutionary period. It argues that each state…

  10. Arctic circulation regimes.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  11. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  12. Proximal tibial fractures with impending compartment syndrome managed by fasciotomy and internal fixation: A retrospective analysis of 15 cases

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Naveen; Singh, Varun; Agrawal, Ashish; Bhargava, Rakesh

    2015-01-01

    Background: Proximal tibia fractures with compartment syndrome present a challenge for orthopedic surgeons. More often than not these patients are subjected to multiple surgeries and are complicated by infection osteomyelitis and poor rehabilitation. There is no consensus in the management of these fractures. Most common mode is to do early fasciotomy with external fixation, followed by second stage definitive fixation. We performed a retrospective study of proximal tibia fractures with impending compartment syndrome treated by single stage fasciotomy and internal fixation. Results in terms of early fracture union, minimum complications and early patient mobilization were very good. Materials and Methods: Fifteen patients who were operated between July 2011 and June 2012 were selected for the study. All documents from their admission until the last followup in December 2013 were reviewed, data regarding complications collected and results were evaluated using Oxford Knee scoring system. Results: At the final outcome, there was anatomical or near anatomical alignment with no postoperative problems with range of motion of near complete flexion (>120) in all patients within 3 months. 13 patients started full weight bearing walking at 3 months. Delayed union in two patients and skin necrosis in one patient was observed. Conclusions: Since the results are encouraging and the rehabilitation time is much less when compared to conventional approaches, it is recommended using this protocol to perform early fasciotomy with the definitive internal fixation as single stage surgery to obtain excellent followup results and to reduce rehabilitation time, secondary trauma, expense of treatment and infection rate. PMID:26538755

  13. Use of negative pressure wound therapy as an adjunct to the treatment of extremity soft-tissue sarcoma with ulceration or impending ulceration

    PubMed Central

    CHEN, YU; XU, SONG-FENG; XU, MING; YU, XIU-CHUN

    2016-01-01

    Major wound complications of the extremities, following wide tumor resection and reconstruction for soft-tissue sarcomas (STSs), remain a challenge for limb-sparing surgery. Furthermore, STSs with ulceration or impending ulceration predispose patients to an increased risk of post-operative infection. The present study was conducted to assess the efficacy of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in preventing wound complications associated with surgical treatment of STSs with ulceration or impending ulceration, in patients treated between February 2012 and January 2013. A total of 5 patients, with a mean age of 48 years (range, 24–68 years), were enrolled in the present study. The diagnoses consisted of undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (n=2), leiomyosarcoma (n=1), synovial sarcoma (n=1) and epithelioid sarcoma (n=1). According to American Joint Committee on Cancer criteria, 3 cases were stage III tumors, and the remaining 2 cases were of stages IIA and IIB, respectively. A total of 3 patients exhibited ulceration at diagnosis, and the remaining patients demonstrated impending ulceration. The mean wound area following wide resection of the tumor was 73 cm2 (range, 45–110 cm2). A continuous suction mode, with pressures measuring −200 to −300 mmHg, was used for 7–10 days on the soft-tissue defects as preparation for wound closure. Soft-tissue reconstruction included muscle flaps (n=2) and skin grafts (n=5). No major wound complications occurred. Post-operative functional and cosmetic outcomes were acceptable. A single patient demonstrated local recurrence 12 months after surgery and re-excision of the tumor was performed. All patients remained alive at the conclusion of follow-up, with a mean follow-up time of 26 months (range, 12–36 months). The present study demonstrated that NPWT is effective and safe when used as an adjunct to wound closure following resection of extremity STS with ulceration/impending ulceration. PMID:27347212

  14. Dynamic Treatment Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Bibhas; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    A dynamic treatment regime consists of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that dictate how to individualize treatments to patients based on evolving treatment and covariate history. These regimes are particularly useful for managing chronic disorders, and fit well into the larger paradigm of personalized medicine. They provide one way to operationalize a clinical decision support system. Statistics plays a key role in the construction of evidence-based dynamic treatment regimes – informing best study design as well as efficient estimation and valid inference. Due to the many novel methodological challenges it offers, this area has been growing in popularity among statisticians in recent years. In this article, we review the key developments in this exciting field of research. In particular, we discuss the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial designs, estimation techniques like Q-learning and marginal structural models, and several inference techniques designed to address the associated non-standard asymptotics. We reference software, whenever available. We also outline some important future directions. PMID:25401119

  15. A note on stability shifting for the Muskat problem

    PubMed Central

    Córdoba, Diego; Gómez-Serrano, Javier; Zlatoš, Andrej

    2015-01-01

    In this note, we show that there exist solutions of the Muskat problem that shift stability regimes: they start unstable, then become stable and finally return to the unstable regime. We also exhibit numerical evidence of solutions with medium-sized norm of the derivative of the initial condition that develop a turning singularity. PMID:26261369

  16. Phase contrast and operation regimes in multifrequency atomic force microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Santos, Sergio

    2014-04-07

    In amplitude modulation atomic force microscopy the attractive and the repulsive force regimes induce phase shifts above and below 90°, respectively. In the more recent multifrequency approach, however, multiple operation regimes have been reported and the theory should be revisited. Here, a theory of phase contrast in multifrequency atomic force microscopy is developed and discussed in terms of energy transfer between modes, energy dissipation and the kinetic energy and energy transfer associated with externally driven harmonics. The single frequency virial that controls the phase shift might undergo transitions in sign while the average force (modal virial) remains positive (negative)

  17. Ecohydrology by thinking outside the bog: Shifting paradigms in an era of shifting peatland ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Moore, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Large shifts in vegetation distributions are occurring worldwide and at unprecedented rates. The most extreme of these regime shifts are expected to occur at ecosystem boundaries of both semi-arid and semi-humid landscapes. Despite extensive hydrological research on the interactions between water and semi-arid ecosystems, research in peatlands on the wet end of ecosystem continuum has been "bogged down" (pun fully intended) by the traditional conceptual models (paradigms?) of peatland hydrology and ecology. The consequences of this "thinking" are large given that northern peatlands provide important global and regional ecosystem services (carbon storage, water storage, and biodiversity). This is especially true because peatlands face increases in the severity, areal extent, and frequency of climate-mediated (e.g., wildfire, drought) and land-use change (e.g., drainage, flooding, and mining) disturbances placing the future security of these critical ecosystem services in doubt. We use the word doubt because while numerical modelling studies predict peatland regime shifts and the demise of global peat stocks, there is growing evidence that peatlands are self-regulating ecosystems dominated by negative ecohydrological feedbacks that stabilize the aforementioned ecosystem services through high ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This raises several important hydrological questions? "Is there field evidence of peatland regime shifts? If so, what are the potential impacts of these shifts on water resources and watershed management? If not, are researchers actually looking in the right places (or times)? In this presentation we explore the need for a "thinking outside the bog" in order to understand the ecohydrological consequences of transformative landscape change caused by peatland regime shifts. With reference to over two decades of field research, recent advances with our Peatland Hydrological Impacts model and recent research examining primary peat formation, we

  18. Imperfect relativistic mirrors in the quantum regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mendonça, J. T.; Serbeto, A.; Galvão, R. M. O.

    2014-05-15

    The collective backscattering of intense laser radiation by energetic electron beams is considered in the relativistic quantum regime. Exact solutions for the radiation field are obtained, for arbitrary electron pulse shapes and laser intensities. The electron beams act as imperfect nonlinear mirrors on the incident laser radiation. This collective backscattering process can lead to the development of new sources of ultra-short pulse radiation in the gamma-ray domain. Numerical examples show that, for plausible experimental conditions, intense pulses of gamma-rays, due to the double Doppler shift of the harmonics of the incident laser radiation, can be produced using the available technology, with durations less than 1 as.

  19. Gear shift control mechanism

    SciTech Connect

    Janson, D.A.

    1987-03-10

    A gear shift control mechanism is described comprising: multiple shift rods directed substantially parallel to one another, each rod carrying a shift fork for axial movement; a shift lever supported for pivotal movement about a first axis directed parallel to the axes of the shift rods and for pivotal movement about a second axis directed substantially perpendicular to the axes of the shift rods. The lever is moveable about the first axis and the second axis into engagement with a selected shift fork; interlock means located on each lateral side of the shift lever and mounted for pivotal movement about the first axis for blocking engagement with the shift forks; detent means for holding the shift lever in multiple predetermined angular positions about the second axis; and spring means located on a lateral side of the shift lever and mounted for pivotal movement about the first axis into interference contact with the shift forks for producing a force tending to resiliently bias the shift lever out of engagement with the selected shift fork.

  20. Compressive Shift Retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohlsson, Henrik; Eldar, Yonina C.; Yang, Allen Y.; Sastry, S. Shankar

    2014-08-01

    The classical shift retrieval problem considers two signals in vector form that are related by a shift. The problem is of great importance in many applications and is typically solved by maximizing the cross-correlation between the two signals. Inspired by compressive sensing, in this paper, we seek to estimate the shift directly from compressed signals. We show that under certain conditions, the shift can be recovered using fewer samples and less computation compared to the classical setup. Of particular interest is shift estimation from Fourier coefficients. We show that under rather mild conditions only one Fourier coefficient suffices to recover the true shift.

  1. Examination Regimes and Student Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cosentino de Cohen, Clemencia

    2010-01-01

    Examination regimes at the end of secondary school vary greatly intra- and cross-nationally, and in recent years have undergone important reforms often geared towards increasing student achievement. This research presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between examination regimes and student achievement in the OECD. Using a micro…

  2. The effect of transparency on stratification and mixing regime in lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    The mixing regime is fundamentally important to lake ecology. Whereas shallow lakes mix to the bottom regularly, deep lakes tend to stratify seasonally. Water transparency strongly affects stratification duration and the mixing regime of lakes of intermediate depth. We review our recent research on how water transparency affects stratification duration and mixing regime in lakes. Firstly we derive physical scaling for the critical depth at which lakes switch from polymixis to seasonal stratification based on the radiation balance, the wind speed, water transparency and lake length. This scaling relation showed that the critical depth varies almost linearly with Secchi depth (transparency) and successfully classified the mixing regime of over 80% of the 379 lakes in our dataset. Secondly we investigated how seasonal variation in transparency due to phytoplankton affects stratification and mixing by analysing long term lake data and performing simulations with a hydrodynamic model. Here we found that the spring clear water phase, which is caused when zooplankton graze the spring phytoplankton bloom, can strongly influence stratification duration and sometimes also the mixing regime. Finally using model simulations of climate scenarios, we show how global warming and a change in transparency can potentially affect lake mixing regimes. Polymictic - dimictic regime shifts were more sensitive to transparency than warming, whereas dimictic - monomictic regime shifts were more sensitive to warming than transparency. Transparency has the strongest effect on stratification in clear lakes between 4 and 10 m deep. Changes in transparency due to biotic interactions or anthropogenic impact may lead to mixing regime shifts in these lakes.

  3. Regime Switching State-Space Models Applied to Psychological Processes: Handling Missing Data and Making Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamaker, E. L.; Grasman, R. P. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and shifts between a "hot hand" and a "cold hand" in a…

  4. Clock shifts in the Unitary Bose Gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, Richard; Man, Jay; Lopes, Raphael; Navon, Nir; Smith, Robert; Hadzibabic, Zoran

    2016-05-01

    Clock shifts are interaction-induced changes in the transition frequency between atomic spin states. So-called because of their importance as systematic errors in atomic clocks, they reveal details of both the interaction energy within a gas and the particle correlations. In this work, we employ a RF-injection technique to rapidly project a thermal Bose gas into the unitary regime on a timescale much shorter than three-body losses. Working with a two-state system, one of which exhibits strong intrastate interactions, we carry out Ramsey spectroscopy to extract the variation in the clock shift across a Feshbach resonance. Thanks to the relationship between these shifts and particle correlations, we use our measurements to infer the contact as a function of both interaction strength and degeneracy. This quantity plays a central role in the many-body physics of strongly correlated systems, offering a link between few-body and thermodynamic behaviour.

  5. Chemical shifts in biomolecules

    PubMed Central

    Case, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Summary NMR chemical shifts are sensitive probes of stucture and dynamics in proteins. Empirical models, based on a large database of measured shifts, take an input structure and provide increasingly accurate estimates of the corresponding shifts. Quantum chemical calculations can provide the same information, with greater generality but (currently) with less accuracy. These methods are now providing new ways to approach NMR structure determination, and new insights into the conformational dynamics of proteins. PMID:23422068

  6. Difference in Noise-Induced Threshold Shift between Planar and Homeotropic Electroconvections in Nematic Liquid Crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huh, Jong-Hoon; Kuribayashi, Akiyuki; Kai, Shoichi

    2009-08-01

    We report the threshold shift induced by externally applied noises for electrohydrodynamic convections (EHCs) in both planarly and homeotropically aligned nematic liquid crystals as well as in both the conduction and dielectric regimes. Owing to the difference in timescales among the intrinsic properties of EHCs, externally applied noises, and deterministic fields, the stabilization or destabilization effects induced by noises are observed. In particular, the difference in the threshold shift between both alignments is found, and discussed in terms of the EHC mechanisms for both alignments. Moreover, a noticeable noise-induced threshold shift is observed in the dielectric regime, which is markedly different from that in the conventional conduction regime.

  7. Spectral shift amplification.

    PubMed

    Han, Pin

    2012-12-01

    The behavior of a limited bandwidth light wave reflected from a material interface is studied theoretically. It is shown that near the anomalous dispersion zone, if the incident center wavelength is shifted by a small amount, this shift can be amplified by about three times in the reflected light. PMID:23202082

  8. Style Shift in Translation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Qinai, Jamal

    2009-01-01

    The phenomenon of style shift in translated texts is ascribed mainly to textual incompatibility in terms of rhetorical asymmetry and divergence at the formality level. Mandatory shifts result from a systematic dissimilarity between the source language and the target language in terms of the underlying system of syntax, semantics and rhetorical…

  9. Spectral shift amplification.

    PubMed

    Han, Pin

    2012-12-01

    The behavior of a limited bandwidth light wave reflected from a material interface is studied theoretically. It is shown that near the anomalous dispersion zone, if the incident center wavelength is shifted by a small amount, this shift can be amplified by about three times in the reflected light.

  10. Making Shifts toward Proficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGatha, Maggie B.; Bay-Williams, Jennifer M.

    2013-01-01

    The Leading for Mathematical Proficiency (LMP) Framework (Bay-Williams et al.) has three components: (1) The Standards for Mathematical Practice; (2) Shifts in classroom practice; and (3) Teaching skills. This article briefly describes each component of the LMP framework and then focuses more in depth on the second component, the shifts in…

  11. Shifting scintillator neutron detector

    SciTech Connect

    Clonts, Lloyd G; Cooper, Ronald G; Crow, Jr., Morris Lowell; Hannah, Bruce W; Hodges, Jason P; Richards, John D; Riedel, Richard A

    2014-03-04

    Provided are sensors and methods for detecting thermal neutrons. Provided is an apparatus having a scintillator for absorbing a neutron, the scintillator having a back side for discharging a scintillation light of a first wavelength in response to the absorbed neutron, an array of wavelength-shifting fibers proximate to the back side of the scintillator for shifting the scintillation light of the first wavelength to light of a second wavelength, the wavelength-shifting fibers being disposed in a two-dimensional pattern and defining a plurality of scattering plane pixels where the wavelength-shifting fibers overlap, a plurality of photomultiplier tubes, in coded optical communication with the wavelength-shifting fibers, for converting the light of the second wavelength to an electronic signal, and a processor for processing the electronic signal to identify one of the plurality of scattering plane pixels as indicative of a position within the scintillator where the neutron was absorbed.

  12. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  13. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stechmann, Samuel N.; Hottovy, Scott

    2016-06-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes -- open versus closed cells -- fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. With this new conceptual viewpoint, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions.

  14. Shape-Shifting Plastic

    SciTech Connect

    2015-05-20

    A new plastic developed by ORNL and Washington State University transforms from its original shape through a series of temporary shapes and returns to its initial form. The shape-shifting process is controlled through changes in temperature

  15. Pure shift NMR.

    PubMed

    Zangger, Klaus

    2015-04-01

    Although scalar-coupling provides important structural information, the resulting signal splittings significantly reduce the resolution of NMR spectra. Limited resolution is a particular problem in proton NMR experiments, resulting in part from the limited proton chemical shift range (∼10 ppm) but even more from the splittings due to scalar coupling to nearby protons. "Pure shift" NMR spectroscopy (also known as broadband homonuclear decoupling) has been developed for disentangling overlapped proton NMR spectra. The resulting spectra are considerably simplified as they consist of single lines, reminiscent of proton-decoupled C-13 spectra at natural abundance, with no multiplet structure. The different approaches to obtaining pure shift spectra are reviewed here and several applications presented. Pure shift spectra are especially useful for highly overlapped proton spectra, as found for example in reaction mixtures, natural products and biomacromolecules.

  16. Our World: Fluid Shift

    NASA Video Gallery

    Learn about the circulatory system and how gravity aids blood flow in our bodies here on Earth. Find out how NASA flight surgeons help the astronauts deal with the fluid shift that happens during s...

  17. Molecular Electronic Shift Registers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beratan, David N.; Onuchic, Jose N.

    1990-01-01

    Molecular-scale shift registers eventually constructed as parts of high-density integrated memory circuits. In principle, variety of organic molecules makes possible large number of different configurations and modes of operation for such shift-register devices. Several classes of devices and implementations in some specific types of molecules proposed. All based on transfer of electrons or holes along chains of repeating molecular units.

  18. Vehicular transmission shift mechanism

    SciTech Connect

    Okubo, K.

    1988-12-27

    This patent describes a vehicular transmission having a main speed change mechanism and a sub speed change mechanism both housed within a transmission case. The main speed change mechanism has gear trains in plural shifting stages provided between input and output shafts and capable of being established selectively and also has a plurality of synchronizing mechanisms operable by shift forks to establish the gear trains selectively. The sub speed change mechanism has a reduction gear train for obtaining a still lower speed than the lowest shifting stage in the main speed change mechanism and also has a sub speed gear shifting synchronizing mechanism operable by a sub speed gear shift fork to establish the reduction gear train. This sub speed change mechanism is disposed in parallel with the main speed change mechanism, the sub speed gear shift fork having means connected to one end of a lever pivotably supported at an intermediate part thereof by a pivot pin, the pivot pin being mounted on the transmission case from the outside thereof.

  19. Clock Shifts of Optical Transitions in Ultracold Atomic Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Yu Zhenhua; Pethick, C. J.

    2010-01-08

    We calculate the shift, due to interatomic interactions, of an optical transition in an atomic Fermi gas trapped in an optical lattice, as in recent experiments of Campbell et al.[Science 324, 360 (2009)]. Using a pseudospin formalism to describe the density matrix of atoms, we derive a Bloch equation which incorporates both spatial inhomogeneity of the probe laser field and interatomic interactions. Expressions are given for the frequency shift as a function of pulse duration, detuning of the probe laser, and the spatial dependence of the electric field of the probe beam. In the low temperature semiclassical regime, we find that the magnitude of the shift is proportional to the temperature.

  20. A Regime Diagram for Subduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegman, D. R.; Farrington, R.; Capitanio, F. A.; Schellart, W. P.

    2009-12-01

    Regime diagrams and associated scaling relations have profoundly influenced our understanding of planetary dynamics. Previous regime diagrams characterized the regimes of stagnant-lid, small viscosity contrast, transitional, and no-convection for temperature-dependent (Moresi and Solomatov, 1995), and non-linear power law rheologies (Solomatov and Moresi, 1997) as well as stagnant-lid, sluggish-lid, and mobile-lid regimes once the finite strength of rock was considered (Moresi and Solomatov, 1998). Scalings derived from such models have been the cornerstone for parameterized models of thermal evolution of rocky planets and icy moons for the past decade. While such a theory can predict the tectonic state of a planetary body, it is still rather incomplete in regards to predicting tectonics. For example, the mobile-lid regime is unspecific as to how continuous lithospheric recycling should occur on a terrestrial planet. Towards this goal, Gerya et al., (2008) advanced a new regime diagram aiming to characterize when subduction would manifest itself as a one-sided or two-sided downwelling and either symmetric or asymmetric. Here, we present a regime diagram for the case of a single-sided, asymmetric type of subduction (most Earth-like type). Using a 3-D numerical model of a free subduction, we describe a total of 5 different styles of subduction that can possibly occur. Each style is distinguished by its upper mantle slab morphology resulting from the sinking kinematics. We provide movies to illustrate the different styles and their progressive time-evolution. In each regime, subduction is accommodated by a combination of plate advance and slab rollback, with associated motions of forward plate velocity and trench retreat, respectively. We demonstrate that the preferred subduction mode depends upon two essential controlling factors: 1) buoyancy of the downgoing plate and 2) strength of plate in resisting bending at the hinge. We propose that a variety of subduction

  1. A comparison of smoking patterns in the People's Republic of China with the United States. An impending health catastrophe in the middle kingdom.

    PubMed

    Yu, J J; Mattson, M E; Boyd, G M; Mueller, M D; Shopland, D R; Pechacek, T F; Cullen, J W

    1990-09-26

    Half of the global increase in tobacco use from 1976 to 1986 occurred in the People's Republic of China. In 1984, the first national smoking survey was conducted in China, involving over a half-million subjects. Sixty-one percent of Chinese males over age 15 smoke, with higher rates in all occupational groups than for corresponding groups in the United States. Current smoking patterns in China are similar to those in the United States during the 1950s, and these patterns forecast a steadily increasing epidemic of smoking-related deaths. It is estimated that by 2025, two million Chinese men will die annually from smoking. Foreign tobacco companies are mounting massive production and advertising campaigns in China. Government health education programs lack funds to counter these influences with sustained and comprehensive educational and interventional campaigns. To avert an impending national health catastrophe, China must launch a comprehensive smoking-control initiative aimed at public education, cessation, and legislation and policy. PMID:2395200

  2. Absorption driven focus shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrop, N.; Wolf, S.; Maerten, O.; Dudek, K.; Ballach, S.; Kramer, R.

    2016-03-01

    Modern high brilliance near infrared lasers have seen a tremendous growth in applications throughout the world. Increased productivity has been achieved by higher laser power and increased brilliance of lasers. Positive impacts on the performance and costs of parts are opposed to threats on process stability and quality, namely shift of focus position over time. A high initial process quality will be reduced by contamination of optics, eventually leading to a focus shift or even destruction of the optics. Focus analysis at full power of multi-kilowatt high brilliance lasers is a very demanding task because of high power densities in the spot and the high power load on optical elements. With the newly developed high power projection optics, the High-Power Micro-Spot Monitor High Brilliance (HP-MSM-HB) is able to measure focus diameter as low as 20 μm at power levels up to 10 kW at very low internal focus shift. A main driving factor behind thermally induced focus shift is the absorption level of the optical element. A newly developed measuring system is designed to determine the relative absorption level in reference to a gold standard. Test results presented show a direct correlation between absorption levels and focus shift. The ability to determine the absorption level of optical elements as well as their performance at full processing power before they are put to use, enables a high level of quality assurance for optics manufacturers and processing head manufacturers alike.

  3. Predicting catastrophic shifts.

    PubMed

    Weissmann, Haim; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2016-05-21

    Catastrophic shifts are known to pose a serious threat to ecology, and a reliable set of early warning indicators is desperately needed. However, the tools suggested so far have two problems. First, they cannot discriminate between a smooth transition and an imminent irreversible shift. Second, they aimed at predicting the tipping point where a state loses its stability, but in noisy spatial system the actual transition occurs when an alternative state invades. Here we suggest a cluster tracking technique that solves both problems, distinguishing between smooth and catastrophic transitions and to identify an imminent shift in both cases. Our method may allow for the prediction, and thus hopefully the prevention of such transitions, avoiding their destructive outcomes. PMID:26970446

  4. Trophic shift, not collapse

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Stow, Craig A.; Roseman, Edward F.; He, Ji X.

    2013-01-01

    scientists who are closely monitoring Lake Huron’s food web, we believe that the ongoing changes are more accurately characterized as a trophic shift in which benthic pathways have become more prominent. While decreases in abundance have occurred for some species, others are experiencing improved reproduction resulting in the restoration of several important native species.

  5. Local-field correction in the strong-coupling regime

    SciTech Connect

    Hien, Tran Minh; Dung, Ho Trung; Welsch, Dirk-Gunnar

    2011-04-15

    The influence of the local-field correction on the strong atom-field coupling regime are investigated using the real-cavity model. The atom is positioned at the center of a multilayer sphere. Three types of mirrors are considered: perfectly reflecting, Lorentz band gap, and Bragg-distributed ones, with special emphasis on experimental practicability. In particular, the influence of the local field on the spectral resonance lines, the Rabi oscillation frequency and decay rate, and the condition indicating the occurrence of the strong-coupling regime are studied in detail. It is shown that the local-field correction gives rise to a structureless plateau in the density of states of the electromagnetic field. The level of the plateau rises with increasing material density and/or absorption, which may eventually destroy the strong-coupling regime. The effect of the local field is especially pronounced at high-material densities due to direct energy transfer from the guest atom to the medium. At lower material density and/or absorption, variation of the material density does not seem to affect much the strong-coupling regime, except for a small shift in the resonance frequency.

  6. Initial evidence of a failure to activate right anterior insula during affective set-shifting in PTSD

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Alan; Strigo, Irina A.; Matthews, Scott C.; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

    2010-01-01

    Objective Interoception is the perception of one's internal physiological, sensory, and emotional status. Extensive evidence supports a link between interoception and subjective experience. An altered ability to monitor or modulate interoception as it relates to subjective experience may provide a mechanistic explanation for the development of some forms of psychiatric illness. Methods We investigated which neural networks are activated when anticipating a change in affective (and thus interoceptive) state, which we term “affective set-shifting”, in women with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) related to intimate partner violence, and in non-traumatized healthy volunteers. Results Although both groups activated the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during affective set-shifting, the PTSD group showed significantly less activation in the right anterior insula than did the controls. Conclusions These findings may suggest that although individuals with PTSD are cognitively aware of the impending shift in interoceptive state, they fail to appropriately activate neural circuitry involved in modulating interoceptive responses. PMID:19398499

  7. The Impending Oral Health Crisis.

    PubMed

    Tegtmeier, Carl H; Miller, David J; Shub, Judith L

    2016-04-01

    Last May, the New York State Dental Association and the New York State Dental Foundation convened the first "Oral Health Stakeholders' Summit on the Future of Special Needs Dentistry, Hospital Dentistry and Dental Education." The summit was chaired by David J. Miller, then NYSDA President Elect, and Carl H. Tegtmeier, then chair of the NYSDA Council on Dental Health Planning and Hospital Dentistry. It brought together experts, called to frame the issues and provide information necessary for a reasoned response. And it sought input from attendees to develop recommendations to ensure that patients with intellectual and developmental disabilities, as well as an aging population with Alzheimer's disease and dementia, have access to appropriate oral health care in the years ahead. Over 100 participants, representing dentistry, hospital training programs, third-party payers, state government offices and related patient support associations, attended the two-day event in Albany. They focused on the impact of reductions in funding, the transition of Medicaid services into a managed care model, a loss of service providers and the need for expanded training programs. They heard from speakers epresenting a broad spectrum of those involved in he oral health care of patients with intellectual and evelopmental disabilities, the Alzheimer's Association, dental educators and researchers, hospital dentistry and the benefits industry, whose presentations focused on a looming oral health crisis threatening access to dental care for patients with disabilities. PMID:27348951

  8. The thermal regime of Venus

    SciTech Connect

    Solomatov, V.S.; Zharkov, V.N. )

    1990-04-01

    In the present numerical modeling study of the thermal evolution of Venus, the mantle is taken to be composed of independently convecting upper and lower mantles. A novel parameterization is used which takes into account recent numerical investigations in media with complex rheology. The parameters of the convecting planet in the asymptotic regime do not depend on initial conditions, and are ascertained analytically. Convection in the lower part of the crust is demonstrated to be involved in regions having specific crustal composition; heat transfer to the surface is primarily via advection by magmas that are produced by melting of the lower layers of the crust. 50 refs.

  9. Breddin's graph for tectonic regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Célérier, Bernard; Séranne, Michel

    2001-05-01

    A simple graphical method is proposed to infer the tectonic regime from a fault and slip data set. An abacus is overlaid on a plot of the rake versus strike of the data. This yields the horizontal principal stress directions and a constraint on the stress tensor aspect ratio, in a manner similar to Breddin's graph for two-dimensional strain analysis. The main requirement is that one of the principal stress directions is close to the vertical. This method is illustrated on monophase synthetic and natural data, but is also expected to help sort out multiphase data sets.

  10. Idealized Simulations of Precipitation Regimes over Small Tropical Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Sobel, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical islands are global focal points of convection. Observational studies have shown that precipitation over tropical islands is strongly regulated by their size and elevation, and by the large scale prevailing wind. To further develop physical understanding of convection over tropical islands, we perform a set of highly idealized simulations with uniform sea surface temperature to explore flow regimes around an idealized small island (~120 km wide) as a function of large scale wind speed and island elevation. In our simulations the domain as a whole is in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), which constrains the domain average precipitation. The island occupies a small part of the domain, so that significant precipitation variations over the island can occur, compensated by smaller anomalies over the larger surrounding area. Over flat islands, as we vary prevailing wind speed, the island experiences three distinct flow regimes: rainfall is greatly enhanced and a local symmetric circulation is formed in the time mean around the island when the prevailing large scale wind speed is small (0 m/s); but there is little rainfall enhancement when the wind speed is increased to a moderate value (~5 m/s). We interpret these two regimes as the shift of triggering mechanism of convection: thermally forced convection due to surface solar heating dominates when large scale wind is very weak, while mechanically forced convection is favored when the impinging wind is moderate. Further increase of the prevailing wind speed to large values leads to strong asymmetry in the windward and leeward side of island and its coastal area, likely due to gravity waves from flow passing over elevated diurnal heating. Topography has a quantitative impact, but does not alter the qualitative shift of flow regimes as a function of wind speed.

  11. The New English Quality Assurance Regime

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2011-01-01

    England is developing a new quality assurance regime that will come into effect in October 2011. A new funding regime will operate from the following year, together with new rules to ease the participation of private higher education providers. This article describes and analyses the new quality and funding regimes. It argues that the greater…

  12. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  13. Different regimes of dynamic wetting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gustav, Amberg; Wang, Jiayu; Do-Quang, Minh; Shiomi, Junichiro; Physiochemical fluid mechanics Team; Maruyama-Chiashi Laboratory Team

    2014-11-01

    Dynamic wetting, as observed when a droplet contacts a dry solid surface, is important in various engineering processes, such as printing, coating, and lubrication. Our overall aim is to investigate if and how the detailed properties of the solid surface influence the dynamics of wetting. Here we discuss how surface roughness influences the initial dynamic spreading of a partially wetting droplet by studying the spreading on a solid substrate patterned with microstructures just a few micrometers in size. This is complemented by matching numerical simulations. We present a parameter map, based on the properties of the liquid and the solid surface, which identifies qualitatively different spreading regimes, where the spreading speed is limited by either the liquid viscosity, the surface properties, or the liquid inertia. The peculiarities of the different spreading regimes are studied by detailed numerical simulations, in conjuction with experiments. This work was financially supported in part by, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (J.W. and J.S) and Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (M.D.-Q. and G.A).

  14. Adaptation in collaborative governance regimes.

    PubMed

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  15. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheffer, Marten; Carpenter, Steve; Foley, Jonathan A.; Folke, Carl; Walker, Brian

    2001-10-01

    All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes in climate, nutrient loading, habitat fragmentation or biotic exploitation. Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way. However, studies on lakes, coral reefs, oceans, forests and arid lands have shown that smooth change can be interrupted by sudden drastic switches to a contrasting state. Although diverse events can trigger such shifts, recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state. This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.

  16. Elective automatic shift transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Redzinski, G.E.

    1986-09-02

    For use in vehicle of the type having an engine coupled with traction wheels through a driveline including a change-speed transmission, the transmission includes drive direction reversing means, a drive direction selector for manual control of the reversing means and having a forward and reverse position, the transmission including ratio changing means, a manual gear selector for operation of the ratio changing means for shifting the transmission into a selected gear, and control means responsive to a control signal for upshifting and downshifting between first and second gears.

  17. Shifted genus expanded W ∞ algebra and shifted Hurwitz numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Quan

    2016-05-01

    We construct the shifted genus expanded W ∞ algebra, which is isomorphic to the central subalgebra A ∞ of infinite symmetric group algebra and to the shifted Schur symmetrical function algebra Λ* defined by Okounkov and Olshanskii. As an application, we get some differential equations for the generating functions of the shifted Hurwitz numbers; thus, we can express the generating functions in terms of the shifted genus expanded cut-and-join operators.

  18. Permafrost and the geothermal regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachenbruch, A. H.; Marshall, B. V.

    Permafrost is the region in the solid earth where the temperature is below 0 C summer and winter. Within this region, water usually occurs as ice, often in massive segregated forms, although capillary water, brines, and gas hydrates also occur. The frozen condition renders permafrost impermeable to water flow, subject to brittle fracture under seasonally induced thermal stress, and subject to mechanical failure and flow when thawed by natural processes or disturbed by man. Hence an understanding of the factors controlling the geothermal regime is necessary for an understanding of geomorphic processes and for successful design of engineering structures such as roadways, heated buildings, pipelines, and oil wells in permafrost terrains. Studies of these factors are greatly simplified by the general absence of heat transfer by flowing ground water; temperatures are estimated with confidence from heat-conduction theory if the ground surface temperature, regional heat flow, and thermal properties are known.

  19. Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Yan; Gauthier, Sylvie; Gray, David R; Le Goff, Héloïse; Lefort, Patrick; Morissette, Jacques

    2013-06-01

    Fire is a major disturbance in Canadian forests. Along with fuel and ignition characteristics, climatic conditions are seen as one of the main drivers of fire regimes. Projected changes in climate are expected to significantly influence fire regimes in Canada. As fire regime greatly shapes large-scale patterns in biodiversity, carbon, and vegetation, as well as forest and fire management strategies, it becomes necessary to define regions where current and future fire regimes are homogeneous. Random Forests (RF) modeling was used to relate fire regime attributes prevailing between 1961 and 1990 in eastern Canada with climatic/fire-weather and environmental variables. Using climatic normals outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), we delineated current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2040, 2040-2070, 2071 2100) homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones. Heterogeneous response of fire regime to climate changes is projected for eastern Canada with some areas (e.g., western Quebec) experiencing very small alterations while others (e.g., southeastern Ontario) are facing great shifts. Overall, models predicted a 2.2- and 2.4-fold increase in the number of fires and the annual area burned respectively mostly as a result of an increase in extreme fire-weather normals and mean drought code. As extreme fire danger would occur later in the fire season on average, the fire season would shift slightly later (5-20 days) in the summer for much of the study area while remaining relatively stable elsewhere. Although fire regime values would change significantly over time, most zone boundaries would remain relatively stable. The information resulting from HFR zonations is clearly of interest for forest and fire management agencies as it reveals zones with peculiar fire regimes that would have been hidden otherwise using predefined administrative or ecological stratifications.

  20. Transmission shift control assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Dzioba, D.L.

    1989-04-18

    This patent describes a transmission shift control assembly mounted on a steering column having a longitudinal axis comprising: bracket means secured to the steering column; transmission shift cable means having a portion secured to the bracket means and a portion linearly movable relative to the secured portion; mounting means on the bracket cable drive arm means having an axis and being rotatably mounted on the rotary axis on the mounting means oblique to the longitudinal axis and including a cable connecting portion secured to the movable portion of the cable means and lever mounting means adjacent the mounting means; operator control means including lever means, pin means for pivotally mounting the lever means on the lever mounting means on an axis substantially perpendicular to the rotary axis and positioning arm means formed on the lever means and extending from the pin means; and detent gate means disposed on the bracket means in position to abut the positioning arm means for limiting the extent of pivotal movement of the lever means.

  1. Phase shifting interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, G.E.

    1999-08-03

    An interferometer is disclosed which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of {lambda}/1000 where {lambda} is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about {lambda}/50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. Whereas current interferometers illuminate the optic to be tested with an aberrated wavefront which also limits the accuracy of the measurement, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical measurement wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms. 11 figs.

  2. Phase shifting interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    1999-01-01

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of .lambda./1000 where .lambda. is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about .lambda./50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. Whereas current interferometers illuminate the optic to be tested with an aberrated wavefront which also limits the accuracy of the measurement, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical measurement wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms.

  3. Phase shifting diffraction interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, G.E.

    1996-08-29

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of {lambda}/1000 where {lambda} is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about {lambda}/50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms. 8 figs.

  4. Phase shifting diffraction interferometer

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    1996-01-01

    An interferometer which has the capability of measuring optical elements and systems with an accuracy of .lambda./1000 where .lambda. is the wavelength of visible light. Whereas current interferometers employ a reference surface, which inherently limits the accuracy of the measurement to about .lambda./50, this interferometer uses an essentially perfect spherical reference wavefront generated by the fundamental process of diffraction. This interferometer is adjustable to give unity fringe visibility, which maximizes the signal-to-noise, and has the means to introduce a controlled prescribed relative phase shift between the reference wavefront and the wavefront from the optics under test, which permits analysis of the interference fringe pattern using standard phase extraction algorithms.

  5. Shifting epidemiology of Flaviviridae.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Lyle R; Marfin, Anthony A

    2005-04-01

    The dengue, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and yellow fever viruses are important mosquito-borne viruses whose epidemiology is shifting in response to changing societal factors, such as increasing commerce, urbanization of rural areas, and population growth. All four viruses are expanding geographically, as exemplified by the emergence of West Nile virus in the Americas and Japanese encephalitis virus in Australasia. The large, recent global outbreaks of severe neurological disease caused by West Nile virus, the increasing frequency of dengue hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in the Americas, and the emergence of yellow fever virus vaccination-associated viscerotropic disease, are new clinical epidemiologic trends. These worrisome epidemiologic trends will probably continue in coming decades, as a reversal of their societal and biological drivers is not in sight. Nevertheless, the substantial reductions in Japanese encephalitis virus incidence resulting from vaccination programs and economic development in some Asian countries provide some encouragement within this overall guarded outlook.

  6. Propagation Regime of Iron Dust Flames

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    A flame propagating through an iron-dust mixture can propagate in two asymptotic regimes. When the characteristic time of heat transfer between particles is much smaller than the characteristic time of particle combustion, the flame propagates in the continuum regime where the heat released by reacting particles can be modelled as a space-averaged function. In contrast, when the characteristic time of heat transfer is much larger than the particle reaction time, the flame can no longer be treated as a continuum due to dominating effects associated with the discrete nature of the particle reaction. The discrete regime is characterized by weak dependence of the flame speed on the oxygen concentration compared to the continuum regime. The discrete regime is observed in flames propagating through an iron dust cloud within a gas mixture containing xenon, while the continuum regime is obtained when xenon is substituted with helium.

  7. Discriminatory Proofreading Regimes in Nonequilibrium Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murugan, Arvind; Huse, David A.; Leibler, Stanislas

    2014-04-01

    We use ideas from kinetic proofreading, an error-correcting mechanism in biology, to identify new kinetic regimes in nonequilibrium systems. These regimes are defined by the sensitivity of the occupancy of a state of the system to a change in its energy. In biological contexts, higher sensitivity corresponds to stronger discrimination between molecular substrates with different energetics competing in the same reaction. We study this discriminatory ability in systems with discrete states that are connected by a general network of transitions. We find multiple regimes of different discriminatory ability when the energy of a given state of the network is varied. Interestingly, the occupancy of the state can even increase with its energy, corresponding to an "antiproofreading" regime. The number and properties of such discriminatory regimes are limited by the topology of the network. Finally, we find that discriminatory regimes can be changed without modifying any "hard-wired" structural aspects of the system but rather by simply changing external chemical potentials.

  8. Identifying and Investigating the Late-1960s Interhemispheric SST Shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedman, A. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Liu, Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2014-12-01

    The global north-south interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) difference experienced a pronounced and rapid decrease in the late 1960s, which has been linked to drying in the Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia. However, some basic questions about the interhemispheric SST shift remain unresolved, including its scale and whether the constituent changes in different basins were coordinated. In this study, we systematically investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of the late-1960s interhemispheric SST shift using ocean surface and subsurface observations. We also evaluate potential mechanisms using control and specific-forcing CMIP5 simulations. Using a regime shift detection technique, we identify the late-1960s shift as the most prominent in the historical observational SST record. We additionally examine the corresponding changes in upper-ocean heat content and salinity associated with the shift. We find that there were coordinated upper-ocean cooling and freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic, the region of the largest-magnitude SST decrease during the interhemispheric shift. These upper-ocean changes correspond to a weakened North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). However, the THC decrease does not fully account for the rapid global interhemispheric SST shift, particularly the warming in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.

  9. Colonization dynamics of ciliate morphotypes modified by shifting sandy sediments.

    PubMed

    Risse-Buhl, Ute; Felsmann, Katja; Mutz, Michael

    2014-08-01

    Sandy stream-bed sediments colonized by a diverse ciliate community are subject to various disturbance regimes. In microcosms, we investigated the effect of sediment shifting on the colonization dynamics of 3 ciliate morphotypes differing in morphology, behavior and feeding strategy. The dynamics of the ciliate morphotypes inhabiting sediment pore water and overlying water were observed at 3 sediment shifting frequencies: (1) stable sediments, (2) periodically shifting sediments such as migrating ripples, and (3) continuously shifting sediments as occurring during scour events of the uppermost sediment. Sediment shifting significantly affected the abundance and growth rate of the ciliate morphotypes. The free-swimming filter feeder Dexiostoma campylum was vulnerable to washout by sediment shifting since significantly higher numbers occurred in the overlying water than in pore water. Abundance of D. campylum only increased in pore water of stable sediments. On the contrary, the vagile grasper feeder Chilodonella uncinata and the sessile filter feeder Vorticella convallaria had positive growth rates and successfully colonized sediments that shifted periodically and continuously. Thus, the spatio-temporal pattern of sediment dynamics acts as an essential factor of impact on the structure, distribution and function of ciliate communities in sand-bed streams.

  10. Regime, phase and paradigm shifts: making community ecology the basic science for fisheries

    PubMed Central

    Mangel, Marc; Levin, Phillip S.

    2005-01-01

    Modern fishery science, which began in 1957 with Beverton and Holt, is ca. 50 years old. At its inception, fishery science was limited by a nineteenth century mechanistic worldview and by computational technology; thus, the relatively simple equations of population ecology became the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. The time has come for this to change and for community ecology to become the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. This point will be illustrated with two examples. First, when viewed from a community perspective, excess production must be considered in the context of biomass left for predators. We argue that this is a better measure of the effects of fisheries than spawning biomass per recruit. Second, we shall analyse a simple, but still multi-species, model for fishery management that considers the alternatives of harvest regulations, inshore marine protected areas and offshore marine protected areas. Population or community perspectives lead to very different predictions about the efficacy of reserves. PMID:15713590

  11. Shifting chemical equilibria in flow--efficient decarbonylation driven by annular flow regimes.

    PubMed

    Gutmann, Bernhard; Elsner, Petteri; Glasnov, Toma; Roberge, Dominique M; Kappe, C Oliver

    2014-10-20

    To efficiently drive chemical reactions, it is often necessary to influence an equilibrium by removing one or more components from the reaction space. Such manipulation is straightforward in open systems, for example, by distillation of a volatile product from the reaction mixture. Herein we describe a unique high-temperature/high-pressure gas/liquid continuous-flow process for the rhodium-catalyzed decarbonylation of aldehydes. The carbon monoxide released during the reaction is carried with a stream of an inert gas through the center of the tubing, whereas the liquid feed travels as an annular film along the wall of the channel. As a consequence, carbon monoxide is effectively vaporized from the liquid phase into the gas phase and stripped from the reaction mixture, thus driving the equilibrium to the product and preventing poisoning of the catalyst. This approach enables the catalytic decarbonylation of a variety of aldehydes with unprecedented efficiency with a standard coil-based flow device.

  12. Massive regime shifts and high activity of heterotrophic bacteria in an ice-covered lake.

    PubMed

    Bižić-Ionescu, Mina; Amann, Rudolf; Grossart, Hans-Peter

    2014-01-01

    In winter 2009/10, a sudden under-ice bloom of heterotrophic bacteria occurred in the seasonally ice-covered, temperate, deep, oligotrophic Lake Stechlin (Germany). Extraordinarily high bacterial abundance and biomass were fueled by the breakdown of a massive bloom of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae after ice formation. A reduction in light resulting from snow coverage exerted a pronounced physiological stress on the cyanobacteria. Consequently, these were rapidly colonized, leading to a sudden proliferation of attached and subsequently of free-living heterotrophic bacteria. Total bacterial protein production reached 201 µg C L(-1) d(-1), ca. five times higher than spring-peak values that year. Fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis at high temporal resolution showed pronounced changes in bacterial community structure coinciding with changes in the physiology of the cyanobacteria. Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes revealed that during breakdown of the cyanobacterial population, the diversity of attached and free-living bacterial communities were reduced to a few dominant families. Some of these were not detectable during the early stages of the cyanobacterial bloom indicating that only specific, well adapted bacterial communities can colonize senescent cyanobacteria. Our study suggests that in winter, unlike commonly postulated, carbon rather than temperature is the limiting factor for bacterial growth. Frequent phytoplankton blooms in ice-covered systems highlight the need for year-round studies of aquatic ecosystems including the winter season to correctly understand element and energy cycling through aquatic food webs, particularly the microbial loop. On a global scale, such knowledge is required to determine climate change induced alterations in carbon budgets in polar and temperate aquatic systems.

  13. Palaeoecological signatures of vegetation change induced by herbivory regime shifts on subantarctic Enderby Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Jamie R.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

    2016-02-01

    The stratigraphic relationships of palaeoecological proxies and use of changepoint analyses to determine the cause and effect relationships between past events has allowed a better understanding of the relative contributions of humans and environmental drivers to Late Quaternary extinctions and of their effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Few studies, however, have validated these approaches at localities where past interactions between vegetation communities and large herbivores are well-documented. Here, we use a peat core from subantarctic Enderby Island to present the first study tracing the spores of dung fungi alongside pollen at a site where the history of mammalian herbivore introductions (and subsequent eradication), and their effects on the vegetation, are precisely known. We find a strong connection between spore influx rates of the dung-fungus Sporormiella and PCA axis 1 of the pollen assemblages, suggesting that past vegetation change caused by herbivore introductions and eradications at the core site can be readily deduced from the palaeoecological record. The response of the vegetation community to the removal of herbivores was so rapid, however, that a difference in timing between changepoints relating to specific pollen taxa, the overall pollen community, and the decline of Sporormiella spores, could not be resolved in our record, despite a sampling resolution of <5 years. We suggest that further case-studies, spanning different vegetation and herbivore communities, are required to provide increased confidence in inferences drawn about cause-and-effect relationships using proxy changepoint offsets in palaeoecological records.

  14. Smart social adaptation prevents catastrophic ecological regime shifts in networks of myopic harvesters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, Jonathan; Lucht, Wolfgang; Wiedermann, Marc; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    In the anthropocene, the rise of global social and economic networks with ever increasing connectivity and speed of interactions, e.g., the internet or global financial markets, is a key challenge for sustainable development. The spread of opinions, values or technologies on these networks, in conjunction with the coevolution of the network structures themselves, underlies nexuses of current concern such as anthropogenic climate change, biodiversity loss or global land use change. To isolate and quantitatively study the effects and implications of network dynamics for sustainable development, we propose an agent-based model of information flow on adaptive networks between myopic harvesters that exploit private renewable resources. In this conceptual model of a network of socio-ecological systems, information on management practices flows between agents via boundedly rational imitation depending on the state of the resource stocks involved in an interaction. Agents can also adapt the structure of their social network locally by preferentially connecting to culturally similar agents with identical management practices and, at the same time, disconnecting from culturally dissimilar agents. Investigating in detail the statistical mechanics of this model, we find that an increasing rate of information flow through faster imitation dynamics or growing density of network connectivity leads to a marked increase in the likelihood of environmental resource collapse. However, we show that an optimal rate of social network adaptation can mitigate this negative effect without loss of social cohesion through network fragmentation. Our results highlight that seemingly immaterial network dynamics of spreading opinions or values can be of large relevance for the sustainable management of socio-ecological systems and suggest smartly conservative network adaptation as a strategy for mitigating environmental collapse. Hence, facing the great acceleration, these network dynamics should be more routinely incorporated in standard models of economic development or integrated assessment models used for evaluating anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    SciTech Connect

    Bernard, Michael Lewis

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  16. Evidence for a Drought-driven (pre-industrial) Regime Shift in an Australian Shallow Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, K.; Gell, P.; Doan, P.; Kershaw, P.; McKenzie, M.; Lewis, T.; Tyler, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    We present a 750-year record of ecosystem response to long-term drought history from Lake Colac, Victoria. Using multiple lines of evidence, we test the sensitivity and resilience of Lake Colac to independently reconstructed drought history. The sedimentary archive shows that Lake Colac appears to be sensitive to periods of drought. Following drought conditions c. CE 1390, the lake ecosystem indicates signs of recovery. A succession of droughts in the early 1500s initiates a change in the diatom flora, with freshwater species declining and replaced by saline tolerant species, though there is little interpretable change in aquatic palynomorphs. An inferred drought, around CE 1720 appears to precede a major switch in the lake's ecosystem. The lake became increasingly turbid and saline and there is a distinct switch from a macrophyte-dominated system to an algal-dominated system. The arrival of Europeans in Victoria (CE1840) appears to have little effect on the lake's ecosystem, but the terrestrial vegetation indicates regionally established changes including declines in native trees, especially Casuarina, and arrival and expansion of exotic shade or plantation trees Pinus and Cupressus as well as native and introduced weeds. As European impact in the catchment increases, nutrients appear to play a role in the modification of the lake's ecosystem. A long-term drying trend from c. CE 1975 is evident, culminating in the Millennium Drought, which suggests unprecedented conditions in the ecological history of the Lake.

  17. Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of arctic lakes

    PubMed Central

    Smol, John P.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Birks, H. John B.; Douglas, Marianne S. V.; Jones, Vivienne J.; Korhola, Atte; Pienitz, Reinhard; Rühland, Kathleen; Sorvari, Sanna; Antoniades, Dermot; Brooks, Stephen J.; Fallu, Marie-Andrée; Hughes, Mike; Keatley, Bronwyn E.; Laing, Tamsin E.; Michelutti, Neal; Nazarova, Larisa; Nyman, Marjut; Paterson, Andrew M.; Perren, Bianca; Quinlan, Roberto; Rautio, Milla; Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Siitonen, Susanna; Solovieva, Nadia; Weckström, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Fifty-five paleolimnological records from lakes in the circumpolar Arctic reveal widespread species changes and ecological reorganizations in algae and invertebrate communities since approximately anno Domini 1850. The remoteness of these sites, coupled with the ecological characteristics of taxa involved, indicate that changes are primarily driven by climate warming through lengthening of the summer growing season and related limnological changes. The widespread distribution and similar character of these changes indicate that the opportunity to study arctic ecosystems unaffected by human influences may have disappeared. PMID:15738395

  18. Regime Shifts and Weakened Environmental Gradients in Open Oak and Pine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Hanberry, Brice B.; Dey, Dan C.; He, Hong S.

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections. PMID:22848467

  19. An impending rupture of a celiac artery aneurysm in a patient with Behçet's disease -- extra-anatomic aorto-common hepatic artery bypass: report of a case.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Hideaki; Umezawa, Hisaki; Goshima, Masakazu; Hattori, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Tetsuya; Negishi, Nanao; Oinuma, Toshinori; Sugitani, Masahiko; Nemoto, Norimichi

    2008-01-01

    A celiac artery aneurysm associated with Behçet's disease is extremely rare. We herein present the case of successful surgical treatment for an impending rupture of a large celiac artery aneurysm with a wide proximal neck in a patient associated with Behçet's disease. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a procedure involving extra-anatomic aorto-common hepatic artery (CHA) bypass through the retroperitoneal space implanting a 6-mm expanded polytetrafluoroethylene graft. An 18-month postoperative magnetic resonance angiography scan showed a good patency of the aorto-CHA graft without an anastomotic pseudoaneurysm in a closure of aorta and anastomoses.

  20. Regimes of suprathermal electron transport

    SciTech Connect

    Glinsky, M.E.

    1995-07-01

    Regimes of the one-dimensional (1-D) transport of suprathermal electrons into a cold background plasma are delineated. A well ordered temporal progression is found through eras where {ital J}{center_dot}{ital E} heating, hot electron--cold electron collisional heating, and diffusive heat flow dominate the cold electron energy equation. Scaling relations for how important quantities such as the width and temperature of the heated layer of cold electrons evolve with time are presented. These scaling relations are extracted from a simple 1-D model of the transport which can be written in dimensionless form with one free parameter. The parameter is shown to be the suprathermal electron velocity divided by the drift velocity of cold electrons which balances the suprathermal current. Special attention is paid to the assumptions which allow the reduction from the collisional Vlasov equation, using a Fokker--Planck collision operator, to this simple model. These model equations are numerically solved and compared to both the scaling relations and a more complete multigroup electron diffusion transport. Implications of the scaling relations on fast ion generation, magnetic field generation, and electric field inhibition of electron transport are examined as they apply to laser heated plasmas. {copyright} {ital 1995} {ital American} {ital Institute} {ital of} {ital Physics}.

  1. Multistability of synchronous regimes in rotator ensembles.

    PubMed

    Kryukov, A K; Petrov, V S; Osipov, G V; Kurths, J

    2015-12-01

    We study collective dynamics in rotator ensembles and focus on the multistability of synchronous regimes in a chain of coupled rotators. We provide a detailed analysis of the number of coexisting regimes and estimate in particular, the synchronization boundary for different types of individual frequency distribution. The number of wave-based regimes coexisting for the same parameters and its dependence on the chain length are estimated. We give an analytical estimation for the synchronization frequency of the in-phase regime for a uniform individual frequency distribution. PMID:26723160

  2. Hydraulically actuated well shifting tool

    SciTech Connect

    Roth, B.A.

    1992-10-20

    This patent describes a hydraulically actuated shifting tool for actuating a sliding member in a well tool. It comprises: a housing having a hydraulic fluid bore therein; shifting dog means positioned on the housing for movement away and toward the housing; locking dog means positioned on the housing for movement away and toward the body; shifting dog hydraulic actuating means in fluid communication with the bore for causing engagement of the shifting dogs with the sliding member; locking dog hydraulic actuating means in communication with the bore for causing engagement of the locking dogs with the locking means; and hydraulic shifting means in communication with the bore for causing relative movement between the shifting dog means and the locking dog means for shifting the sliding sleeve.

  3. Shift related dietary intake in day and shift workers.

    PubMed

    Lennernäs, M; Hambraeus, L; Akerstedt, T

    1995-12-01

    To study the impact of work hours on eating habits the dietary intake of 96 male industrial workers on day work and two- and three-shift work was investigated using repeated 24 h recall. The intake of energy, 14 nutrients, and coffee and tea was computed, using a nutrient data base, for 8 h work and shifts (day, morning, afternoon, night) and for the 24-h periods including these work shifts. No changes in intake of energy, nutrients and coffee/tea were observed between 8 h morning and afternoon shifts, but there was a reduction in intake during 8 h night shifts. Night shift work caused a redistribution of food and coffee intake, but not an overall 24 h reduction. On the whole, the energy-intake and the quality of food intake (percentages of energy from macronutrients and density of micronutrients) were not affected by shift work, although the intake of carbohydrates was lower in day- and three-shift workers during days off. The intake of alcohol was higher during days off in all groups. In summary, two- and three-shift work in this study affected the circadian distribution of food intakes and coffee consumption, but not the overall 24-h consumption.

  4. Recent shift in Eurasian boreal forest greening response may be associated with warmer and drier summers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Parida, Bikash; Jung, Martin; MacDonald, Glen M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Reichstein, Markus

    2014-03-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems in the northern high latitudes are currently experiencing drastic warming, and recent studies suggest that boreal forests may be increasingly vulnerable to warming-related factors, including temperature-induced drought stress as well as shifts in fire regimes and insect outbreaks. Here we analyze interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data. Our results suggest that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation, a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime. This may be the leading cause for the emergence of large-scale negative correlations between summer temperatures and forest greenness. If such a regime shift would be sustained, the dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress as predicted by vegetation models may proceed more rapidly than anticipated.

  5. Regimes of DNA confined in a nanochannel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Liang; Doyle, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Scaling regimes for polymers confined to tubular channels are well established when the channel cross-sectional dimension is either very small (Odjik regime) or large (classic de Gennes regime) relative to the polymer Kuhn length. In the literature, there is no clear consensus regarding the intermediate region and if subregimes even exist to connect these two classic bounding regimes. The confluence of emerging single DNA mapping technologies and a resurged interest in the fundamental properties of confined polymers has led to extensive research in this area using DNA as a model system. Due to the DNA molecule's properties and limitations of nanofabrication, most experiments are performed in this intermediate regime with channel dimensions of a few Kuhn lengths. Here we use simulations and theory to reconcile conflicting theories and show that there are indeed extended de Gennes, partial alignment and hairpin regimes located between the two classic regimes. Simulations results for both chain extension and free energy support the existence of these regimes. This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's research program in BioSystems and Micromechanics, the National Science Foundation (CBET-1335938).

  6. Capacitance densitometer for flow regime identification

    DOEpatents

    Shipp, Jr., Roy L.

    1978-01-01

    This invention relates to a capacitance densitometer for determining the flow regime of a two-phase flow system. A two-element capacitance densitometer is used in conjunction with a conventional single-beam gamma densitometer to unambiguously identify the prevailing flow regime and the average density of a flowing fluid.

  7. Discrete fluorescent saturation regimes in multilevel systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

    1988-01-01

    Using models of multilevel atoms, the fluorescent process was examined for the ratio of the photooxidation rate, Pij, to the collisional oxidation rate, Cij, in the pumped resonance transition i-j. It is shown that, in the full range of the parameter Pij/Cij, there exist three distinct regimes (I, II, and III) which may be usefully exploited. These regimes are defined, respectively, by the following conditions: Pij/Cij smaller than about 1; Pij/Cij much greater than 1 and Pij much lower than Cki; and Pij/Cij much greater than 1 and Pij much higher than Cki, where Cki is the collisional rate populating the source level i. The only regime which is characterized by the sensitivity of fluorescent-fluorescent line intensity ratios to Pij is regime I. If regime III is reached, even fluorescent-nonfluorescent line ratios become independent of Pij. The analysis is applied to the resonant photoexcitation of a carbonlike ion.

  8. Portable shift register

    SciTech Connect

    Halbig, J.K.; Bourret, S.C.; Hansen, W.J.; Hicks, D.V.; Klosterbuer, S.F.; Krick, M.S.

    1994-01-01

    An electronics package for a small, battery-operated, self-contained, neutron coincidence counter based on a portable shift-register (PSR) has been developed. The counter was developed for applications not adequately addressed by commercial packages, including in-plant measurements to demonstrate compliance with regulations (domestic and international), in-plant process control, and in-field measurements (environmental monitoring or safeguards). Our package's features, which address these applications, include the following: Small size for portability and ease of installation;battery or mains operation; a built-in battery to power the unit and a typical detector such as a small sample counter, for over 6 h if power lines are bad or noisy, if there is a temporary absence of power, or if portability is desired; complete support, including bias, for standard neutron detectors; a powerful communications package to easily facilitate robust external control over a serial port; and a C-library to simplify creating external control programs in computers or other controllers. Whereas the PSR specifically addresses the applications mentioned above, it also performs all the measurements made by previous electronics packages for neutron coincidence counters developed at Los Alamos and commercialized. The PSR electronics package, exclusive of carrying handle, is 8 by 10 by 20 cm; it contains the circuit boards, battery, and bias supply and weighs less than 2 kg. This instrument package is the second in an emerging family of portable measurement instruments being developed; the first was the Miniature and Modular Multichannel Analyzer (M[sup 3]CA). The PSR makes extensive use of hardware and software developed for the M[sup 3]CA; like the M[sup 3]CA, it is intended primarily for use with an external controller interfaced over a serial channel.

  9. Snowpack regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, Ernesto; Molotch, Noah P.

    2014-07-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at 766 snow pillow stations in the Western United States, focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the relationships between the different metrics. The metrics are the initial snow accumulation and snow disappearance dates, the peak snow accumulation and date of peak, the length of the snow accumulation season, the length of the snowmelt season, and the snow accumulation and snowmelt slopes. Three snow regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermountain, and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days. Conversely, the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intermountain regime lies in between. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intermountain regime includes the Eastern Cascades slopes and foothills, the Blue Mountains, Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Columbia Mountains/Northern Rockies, the Idaho Batholith, and the Canadian Rockies. Lastly, the continental regime includes the Middle and Southern Rockies, and the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. The implications of snow regime

  10. Shift work, safety, and aging.

    PubMed

    Folkard, Simon

    2008-04-01

    It has long been recognized that older shift workers may have shorter and more disturbed day sleeps between successive night shifts than their younger colleagues. This has given rise to considerable concern over the safety of aging shift workers because of the increasing age of the work force and increases in retirement age. Because there have been no direct studies of the combined effects of shift work and age on safety, the present paper begins by reviewing the literature relating safety to features of shift systems. It then considers the general effect of age on occupational injury rates before examining existing evidence of the combined effects of shift work and age on performance capabilities. The results of the literature review indicate that when the a priori risk is constant, there is reasonably clear evidence that injury rates are higher at night, and that they increase over successive night shifts more rapidly than over successive day shifts. Further, although occupational injuries are less frequent in older workers, those that do occur tend to be more serious. Finally, there is some suggestive evidence from studies of objectively measured performance capabilities that older workers may be less able to both maintain their performance over the course of a night shift and cope with longer spans of successive night shifts. It is concluded that it seems possible, even though unproven as yet, that older workers may be at greater risk both to injury and accident on the night shift. There is a strong need for future epidemiological studies of the combined effects of shift work and age on injuries and accidents, and that these should attempt to separate the effects of age per se from those of generation. PMID:18484360

  11. Water-gas shift reaction

    SciTech Connect

    Newsome, D.S.

    1980-01-01

    A review covers the industrial applications of the water-gas shift reaction in hydrogen manufacturing, removing CO from ammonia synthesis feeds, and detoxifying town gas; and the catalyst characteristics, reaction kinetics, and reaction mechanisms of the water-gas shift reactions catalyzed by iron-based, copper-based, or sulfided cobalt-molybdenum catalysts.

  12. The Compton Effect Red Shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kierein, John

    2004-05-01

    In 1923 (Phil Mag. 46, 897.) A. H. Compton noted that the Compton effect produces a red shift for all wavelengths when the scattered electron is free and not bound to an atom or molecule. He suggested that the red shift in the visible spectrum at the limb of the sun is larger than that at the center due to the Compton effect from the greater number of free electrons in the sun's atmosphere along the line of sight. Kierein and Sharp (1968, Solar Physics 3, 450) quantified this and showed a good correlation of red shift observations with the variation in the number of these electrons along the line of sight from center to limb and suggested that the quasar red shift and cosmological red shift could be similarly explained. Grote Reber mapped and measured the background hectometric radiation and found it to be unexpectedly bright. In 1968 (J. Franklin Inst. 285,1), while describing these measurements and maps he explained this brightness as being due to the Compton effect causing the cosmological red shift and accelerating intergalactic electrons. The resulting universe is static. The predicted red shift from the Compton effect deviates from Hubble's law only at large red shifts.

  13. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  14. Metabolic impact of shift work.

    PubMed

    Zimberg, Ioná Zalcman; Fernandes Junior, Silvio A; Crispim, Cibele Aparecida; Tufik, Sergio; de Mello, Marco Tulio

    2012-01-01

    In developing countries, shift work represents a considerable contingent workforce. Recently, studies have shown that overweight and obesity are more prevalent in shift workers than day workers. In addition, shift work has been associated with a higher propensity for the development of many metabolic disorders, such as insulin resistance, diabetes, dislipidemias and metabolic syndrome. Recent data have pointed that decrease of the sleep time, desynchronization of circadian rhythm and alteration of environmental aspects are the main factors related to such problems. Shortened or disturbed sleep is among the most common health-related effects of shift work. The plausible physiological and biological mechanisms are related to the activation of the autonomic nervous system, inflammation, changes in lipid and glucose metabolism, and related changes in the risk for atherosclerosis, metabolic syndrome, and type II diabetes. The present review will discuss the impact of shift work on obesity and metabolic disorders and how disruption of sleep and circadian misalignment may contribute to these metabolic dysfunctions.

  15. Cancellation of nonlinear Zeeman shifts with light shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, K.; Acosta, V. M.; Higbie, J. M.; Ledbetter, M. P.; Rochester, S. M.; Budker, D.

    2009-02-01

    Nonlinear Zeeman (NLZ) shifts arising from magnetic-field mixing of the two hyperfine ground states in alkali-metal atoms lead to splitting of magnetic-resonance lines. This is a major source of sensitivity degradation and the so-called “heading errors” of alkali-metal-vapor atomic magnetometers operating in the geophysical field range (B≈0.2-0.7G) . Here, it is shown theoretically and experimentally that NLZ shifts can be effectively canceled by light shifts caused by a laser field of appropriate intensity, polarization, and frequency, a technique that can be readily applied in practical situations.

  16. Transition from linear- to nonlinear-focusing regime in filamentation

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Khan; Durand, Magali; Baudelet, Matthieu; Richardson, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Laser filamentation in gases is often carried out in the laboratory with focusing optics to better stabilize the filament, whereas real-world applications of filaments frequently involve collimated or near-collimated beams. It is well documented that geometrical focusing can alter the properties of laser filaments and, consequently, a transition between a collimated and a strongly focused filament is expected. Nevertheless, this transition point has not been identified. Here, we propose an analytical method to determine the transition, and show that it corresponds to an actual shift in the balance of physical mechanisms governing filamentation. In high-NA conditions, filamentation is primarily governed by geometrical focusing and plasma effects, while the Kerr nonlinearity plays a more significant role as NA decreases. We find the transition between the two regimes to be relatively insensitive to the intrinsic laser parameters, and our analysis agrees well with a wide range of parameters found in published literature. PMID:25434678

  17. Excitonic correlation in the Mott crossover regime in Ge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekiguchi, Fumiya; Shimano, Ryo

    2015-04-01

    Exciton Mott transition (EMT) in Ge was investigated by using optical-pump and terahertz-probe spectroscopy. From the quantitative analysis of optical conductivity and dielectric function, we evaluated the densities of unbound electron-hole pairs and excitons after the photoexcitation, from which we determined the ionization ratio of excitons α. The Mott crossover density region in Ge was elucidated from the density dependence of α in the temperature range above the critical temperature of electron-hole droplets. The 1 s -2 p excitonic transition energy hardly shifted with increasing density toward the EMT. Combined with the similar results recently observed in bulk Si, we suggest that the robustness of excitonic correlation against the Coulomb screening is a universal feature in bulk semiconductors in the Mott crossover regime.

  18. Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

    2001-01-01

    A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport. PMID:11601534

  19. Integrated modelling of DEMO-FNS current ramp-up scenario and steady-state regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dnestrovskij, A. Yu.; Kuteev, B. V.; Bykov, A. S.; Ivanov, A. A.; Lukash, V. E.; Medvedev, S. Yu.; Sergeev, V. Yu.; Sychugov, D. Yu.; Khayrutdinov, R. R.

    2015-06-01

    An approach to the integrated modelling of plasma regimes in the projected neutron source DEMO-FNS based on different codes is developed. The consistency check of the steady-state regime is carried out, namely, the possibility of the plasma current ramp-up, acceptance of growth rates of MHD modes in the steady-state regime, heat loads to the wall and divertor plates and neutron yield value. The following codes are employed for the integrated modelling. ASTRA transport code for calculation of plasma parameters in the steady-state regime, NUBEAM Monte Carlo code for NBI incorporated into the ASTRA code, DINA free boundary equilibrium and evolution code, SPIDER free boundary equilibrium and equilibrium reconstruction code, KINX ideal MHD stability code, TOKSTAB rigid shift vertical stability code, edge and divertor plasma B2SOLPS5.2 code and Semi-analytic Hybrid Model (SHM) code for self-consistent description of the core, edge and divertor plasmas based on the experimental scaling laws. The consistent steady-state regime for the DEMO-FNS plasma and the plasma current ramp-up scenario are developed using the integrated modelling approach. Passive copper coils are suggested to reduce the plasma vertical instability growth rate to below ˜30 s-1.The outer divertor operation in the ‘high-recycling’ regime is numerically demonstrated with a maximal heat flux density of 7-9 MW m-2 that is technically acceptable.

  20. Regimes of validity for balanced models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gent, Peter R.; McWilliams, James C.

    1983-07-01

    Scaling analyses are presented which delineate the atmospheric and oceanic regimes of validity for the family of balanced models described in Gent and McWilliams (1983a). The analyses follow and extend the classical work of Charney (1948) and others. The analyses use three non-dimensional parameters which represent the flow scale relative to the Earth's radius, the dominance of turbulent or wave-like processes, and the dominant component of the potential vorticity. For each regime, the models that are accurate both at leading order and through at least one higher order of accuracy in the appropriate small parameter are then identified. In particular, it is found that members of the balanced family are the appropriate models of higher-order accuracy over a broad range of parameter regimes. Examples are also given of particular atmospheric and oceanic phenomena which are in the regimes of validity for the different balanced models.

  1. Earth Regime Network Evolution Study (ERNESt)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menrad, Bob

    2016-01-01

    Speaker and Presenter at the Lincoln Laboratory Communications Workshop on April 5, 2016 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, MA. A visual presentation titled Earth Regimes Network Evolution Study (ERNESt).

  2. Historical fire regime in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Fotheringham, Connie J.

    2003-01-01

    The historical variability in fire regime is a conservative indicator of ecosystem sustainability. Understanding the natural role of fire in chaparral ecosystems is therefore necessary for effective fire management.

  3. Snowpack Regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, E.; Molotch, N. P.

    2011-12-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments, and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here, we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at over seven hundred snow pillow stations in the Western U.S., focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the cross relationships between the different metrics. The metrics include the initial snow accumulation and meltout dates, the peak accumulation and date of peak, the time from initial accumulation to peak, the time from peak to meltout, the accumulation and melt slopes, and the daily rates of accumulation and melt. Three distinct regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermediate (intercontinental), and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days, while on the other hand; the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intercontinental regime lies in between. Several other differences are identified between the metrics of the SWE curve in these regimes. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intercontinental regime includes the Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Idaho Batholith, the Northern Rockies and the Blue Mountains. Lastly, the Continental regime includes the Middle and Southern

  4. Electron transport fluxes in potato plateau regime

    SciTech Connect

    Shaing, K.C.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    Electron transport fluxes in the potato plateau regime are calculated from the solutions of the drift kinetic equation and fluid equations. It is found that the bootstrap current density remains finite in the region close to the magnetic axis, although it decreases with increasing collision frequency. This finite amount of the bootstrap current in the relatively collisional regime is important in modeling tokamak startup with 100{percent} bootstrap current. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  5. Health effects of shift work.

    PubMed

    LaDou, J

    1982-12-01

    More than 13.5 million American workers, close to 20 percent of the work force, are assigned to evening or night shifts. In some industries such as automobile, petrochemical and textile manufacturing the proportion of shift workers is greater than 50 percent. As the popularity of shift work and other "alternative work schedules" grows, concern is increasing over the disturbance created in the lives of workers and their families by these economically and socially useful innovations. Twenty percent of workers are unable to tolerate shift work. Daily physiologic variations termed circadian rhythms are interactive and require a high degree of phase relationship to produce subjective feelings of wellbeing. Disturbance of these activities, circadian desynchronization, whether from passage over time zones or from shift rotation, results in health effects such as disturbance of the quantity and quality of sleep, disturbance of gastrointestinal and other organ system activities, and aggravation of diseases such as diabetes mellitus, epilepsy and thyrotoxicosis. Worker selection can reduce the number of health problems resulting from shift work. The periodic examination of shift workers is recommended.

  6. Health Effects of Shift Work

    PubMed Central

    LaDou, Joseph

    1982-01-01

    More than 13.5 million American workers, close to 20 percent of the work force, are assigned to evening or night shifts. In some industries such as automobile, petrochemical and textile manufacturing the proportion of shift workers is greater than 50 percent. As the popularity of shift work and other “alternative work schedules” grows, concern is increasing over the disturbance created in the lives of workers and their families by these economically and socially useful innovations. Twenty percent of workers are unable to tolerate shift work. Daily physiologic variations termed circadian rhythms are interactive and require a high degree of phase relationship to produce subjective feelings of wellbeing. Disturbance of these activities, circadian desynchronization, whether from passage over time zones or from shift rotation, results in health effects such as disturbance of the quantity and quality of sleep, disturbance of gastrointestinal and other organ system activities, and aggravation of diseases such as diabetes mellitus, epilepsy and thyrotoxicosis. Worker selection can reduce the number of health problems resulting from shift work. The periodic examination of shift workers is recommended. PMID:6962577

  7. Available Climate Regimes Drive Niche Diversification during Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Wüest, Rafael O; Antonelli, Alexandre; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Linder, H Peter

    2015-05-01

    Climate is a main predictor of biodiversity on a global scale, yet how climate availability affects niche evolution remains poorly explored. Here we assess how intercontinental climate differences may affect the evolution of climate niches and suggest three possible processes: niche truncation along major environmental gradients, intercontinental differences in available climate causing differences in selective regimes, and niche shifts associated with long-distance dispersals leading to a pattern of punctuated evolution. Using the globally distributed danthonioid grasses, we show significant niche differentiation among continents and several instances of niche truncation. The comparison of inferred selective regimes with differences in available climatic space among continents demonstrates adaptation resulting from opportunistic evolution toward available climatic space. Our results suggest that niche evolution in this clade is punctuated, consistent with accelerated niche evolution after long-distance dispersal events. Finally, we discuss how intrinsic constraints (genetic, developmental, or functional) and biotic interactions could have interacted with these three processes during range expansion. Integrating these mechanisms could improve predictions for invasive taxa and long-term evolutionary responses of expanding clades to climate change.

  8. Two-fluid MHD Regime of Drift Wave Instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Shang-Chuan; Zhu, Ping; Xie, Jin-Lin; Liu, Wan-Dong

    2015-11-01

    Drift wave instabilities contribute to the formation of edge turbulence and zonal flows, and thus are believed to play essential roles in the anomalous transport processes in tokamaks. Whereas drift waves are generally assumed to be local and electrostatic, experiments have often found regimes where the spatial scales and the magnetic components of drift waves approach those of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. In this work we study such a drift wave regime in a cylindrical magnetized plasma using a full two-fluid MHD model implemented in the NIMROD code. The linear dependency of growth rates on resistivity and the dispersion relation found in the NIMROD calculations qualitatively agree with theoretical analysis. As the azimuthal mode number increases, the drift modes become highly localized radially; however, unlike the conventional local approximation, the radial profile of the drift mode tends to shift toward the edge away from the center of the density gradient slope, suggesting the inhomogeneity of two-fluid effects. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant 11275200 and National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China Grant 2014GB124002.

  9. [Shift work and cardiometabolic risk].

    PubMed

    Copertaro, Alfredo; Barbaresi, Mariella; Bracci, Massimo

    2009-11-01

    Shift work is frequently associated with coronary heart disease. Medical research indicate metabolic disturbance among shift workers, which is characterized by associated modifications in the concentration of serum glucose and serum lipids, hypertension and obesity, especially addominal weight. Atrasversal study has been carried out: 193 (126 females and 67 males) healthcare shift workers were compared with 221 (160 females and 61 males) day workers. Medical history, health examination including anthropometric and arterial blood pressure measurements were assessed. All participants were submitted a standardized questionnaire on health-related behaviours and biochemical determinations (fasting plasma glucose, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides). Job seniority of shift work resulted at 13.5 +/- 8.2 among shift workers and 19.0 +/- 11.3 among day workers. Assessment of the metabolic syndrome relevance was defined according to the criterions proposed by the International Diabetes Federation. The 20% shift workers (33% males and 13% females) was affected by metabolic syndrome against 12% non shift workers (20% males and 9% females). The most frequently altered parameter, apart from metabolic syndrome, was high abdominal obesity, which occurred in 64% of the sample (70% shift workers vs 58% day workers). The results of multiple logistic regression attested the presence of a higher relative risk among shift workers regarding both the prevalence of a metabolic syndrome (OR 2,1 - 95% Cl 1.15-3.86) and the excess in abdominal obesity (OR 1.8 - 95% Cl 1.16-3.25). After adjusting confusing factors such as smoke, age, alchool, consumption, physical activity, scholastic degree, a OR 2.9 - 95%Cl 1,53-5.53 and a OR 1.9 - 95%.Cl 1.32-3.86 were confirmed. PMID:20066881

  10. Dynamics of a semiconductor laser with frequency shifted feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noblet, Yoann; Toomey, Joshua P.; Kane, Deborah M.

    2014-03-01

    Dynamics of the output of a semiconductor laser with frequency-shifted optical feedback system is systematically analyzed. Results from experimental studies using an 830 nm, QW, Fabry-Perot cavity, semiconductor laser are reported. The dynamics are mapped as a function of the level of frequency shifted feedback (FSF) and the injection current. The frequency shift of the optical feedback is the fundamental or a sub-harmonic of the external cavity frequency in the experiments. Multi-GHz-bandwidth real time data collection and analysis is used to investigate the temporal and spectral behaviour of the output power of the nonlinear system. The results are contrasted with those from conventional semiconductor laser with optical feedback systems. Three fundamentally different regimes of operation are identified for the FSF system corresponding to low, medium and high levels of FSF. The low and medium level FSF regimes are consistent with those found in the semiconductor with conventional optical feedback system. It is only when high levels of FSF are used that the output gives a noisy, near periodic output which is similar to the pulsed comb of mode output observed in analogous FSF laser systems using solid state gain media when the FSF is resonant.

  11. Zero-G experiments in two-phase fluids flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heppner, D. B.; King, C. D.; Littles, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    The two-phase flows studied were liquid and gas mixtures in a straight flow channel of circular cross-section. Boundaries between flow regimes have been defined for normogravity on coordinates of gas quality and total mass velocity; and, when combined with boundary expressions having a Froude number term, an analytical model was derived predicting boundary shifts with changes in gravity level. Experiments with air and water were performed, first in the normogravity environment of a ground laboratory and then in 'zero gravity' aboard a KC-135 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Data reduction confirmed regime boundary shifts in the direction predicted, although the magnitude was a little less than predicted. Pressure drop measurements showed significant increases for the low gravity condition.

  12. Fast online learning of control regime transitions for adaptive robotic mobility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, Brian

    2012-06-01

    We introduce a new framework, Model Transition Control (MTC), that models robot control problems as sets of linear control regimes linked by nonlinear transitions, and a new learning algorithm, Dynamic Threshold Learning (DTL), that learns the boundaries of these control regimes in real-time. We demonstrate that DTL can learn to prevent understeer and oversteer while controlling a simulated high-speed vehicle. We also show that DTL can enable an iRobot PackBot to avoid rollover in rough terrain and to actively shift its center-of-gravity to maintain balance when climbing obstacles. In all cases, DTL is able to learn control regime boundaries in a few minutes, often with single-digit numbers of learning trials.

  13. Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2011-10-01

    SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

  14. Spectral transformations in the regime of pulse self-trapping in a nonlinear photonic crystal

    SciTech Connect

    Novitsky, Denis V.

    2011-11-15

    We consider the interaction of a femtosecond light pulse with a one-dimensional photonic crystal with relaxing cubic nonlinearity in the regime of self-trapping. By use of numerical simulations, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the spectra of reflected and transmitted light possess the properties of narrowband (quasimonochromatic) or wideband (continuumlike) radiation. It is remarkable that these spectral features appear due to a significant frequency shift and occur inside a photonic band gap of the structure under investigation.

  15. Refining the shifted topological vertex

    SciTech Connect

    Drissi, L. B.; Jehjouh, H.; Saidi, E. H.

    2009-01-15

    We study aspects of the refining and shifting properties of the 3d MacMahon function C{sub 3}(q) used in topological string theory and BKP hierarchy. We derive the explicit expressions of the shifted topological vertex S{sub {lambda}}{sub {mu}}{sub {nu}}(q) and its refined version T{sub {lambda}}{sub {mu}}{sub {nu}}(q,t). These vertices complete results in literature.

  16. Climate effects on future runoff regimes of Pacific mountain tributaries

    SciTech Connect

    Rango, A.; Roberts, R.; Martinec, J.

    1995-12-31

    Because most Pacific mountain tributaries are situated in the Northern hemisphere, the runoff regime is characterized by high river flows in April-September and low river flows in October--March. With regard to global warming, a partial shift of inflows into the Pacific Ocean from the summer to the winter has to be expected. For quantitative evaluations, the SRM snowmelt runoff model is applied in several basins in the Pacific rim, ranging from 57{degree} North (west coast of Canada) to 45{degree} South (east coast of New Zealand). In the Kings River basin of California (4,000 km{sup 2}, 171--4,341 m a.s.l.) with the envisaged rise of temperature, runoff in October--March is significantly increased at the expense of snow accumulation in winter and summer runoff. Also, summer runoff peaks are shifted to earlier dates. Similar redistribution of runoff is evaluated for the Illecillewaet River basin of British Columbia (1,155 km{sup 2}, 509--3,150 m a.s.l.), a tributary to the Columbia River. However, an additional effect is observed: because nearly 10% of the surface is covered with permanent snowfields and glaciers, runoff would be temporarily increased from these frozen reserves. A quantitative analysis reveals that in the Illecillewaet basin, even a moderate increase of precipitation would not offset a gradual disappearance of glaciers due to increased melting.

  17. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2015-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  18. Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ormond, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

  19. Learning Flow Regimes from Snapshot Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, Maziar

    2015-11-01

    Fluid flow regimes are often categorized based on the qualitative patterns observed by visual inspection of the flow field. For example, bluff body wakes are traditionally classified based on the number and groupings of vortices shed per cycle (e.g., 2S, 2P, P+S), as seen in snapshots of the vorticity field. Subsequently, the existence and nature of these identified flow regimes can be explained through dynamical analyses of the fluid mechanics. Unfortunately, due to the need for manual inspection, the approach described above can be impractical for studies that seek to learn flow regimes from large volumes of numerical and/or experimental snapshot data. Here, we appeal to established techniques from machine learning and data-driven dynamical systems analysis to automate the task of learning flow regimes from snapshot data. Moreover, by appealing to the dynamical structure of the fluid flow, this approach also offers the potential to reveal flow regimes that may be overlooked by visual inspection alone. Here, we will introduce the methodology and demonstrate its capabilities and limitations in the context of several model flows.

  20. Improving the resolution in phase-shifting Gabor holography by CCD shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granero, L.; Micó, V.; Zalevsky, Z.; García, J.; Javidi, B.

    2015-05-01

    Holography dates back to the year when Dennis Gabor reported on a method to avoid spherical aberration and to improve image quality in electron microscopy. Gabor's two-step holographic method was pioneer but suffered from three major drawbacks: the reconstructed image is affected by coherent noise, the twin image problem of holography that also affects the final image quality, and a restricted sample range (weak diffraction assumption) for preserving the holographic behavior of the method. Nowadays, most of those drawbacks have been overcome and new capabilities have been added due to the replacement of the classical recording media (photographic plate) by digital sensors (CCD and CMOS cameras). But in the Gabor' regime, holography is restricted to weak diffraction assumptions because otherwise, diffraction prevents an accurate recovery of the object's complex wavefront. In this contribution, we present an experimental approach to overcome such limitation and improve final image resolution. We use the phase-shifting Gabor configuration while the CCD camera is shifted to different off-axis positions in order to capture a bigger portion of the diffracted wavefront. Thus, once the whole image set is recorded and digitally processed for each camera's position, we merge the resulting band-pass images into one image by assembling a synthetic aperture. Finally, a superresolved image is recovered by Fourier transformation of the information contained in the generated synthetic aperture. Experimental results are provided using a USAF resolution test target and validating our concepts for a gain in resolution of close to 2.

  1. Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Contribution of Perennial Bunchgrasses in Altering Fire Regimes in the Great Basin

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The historic fire return interval in Wyoming sagebrush ecosystems has been estimated in the hundreds of years; however, the current fire regime has shifted to short fire return intervals with some areas burning six times in the past 60 years. Invasive annual grasses (e.g. Bromus tectorum) are freque...

  2. Massive superstring scatterings in the Regge regime

    SciTech Connect

    He Song; Lee, Jen-Chi; Takahashi, Keijiro; Yang Yi

    2011-03-15

    We calculate four classes of high-energy massive string scattering amplitudes of fermionic string theory at arbitrary mass levels in the Regge regime (RR). We show that all four leading order amplitudes in the RR can be expressed in terms of the Kummer function of the second kind. Based on the summation algorithm of a set of extended signed Stirling number identities, we show that all four ratios calculated previously by the method of decoupling of zero-norm states among scattering amplitudes in the Gross regime can be extracted from this Kummer function in the RR. Finally, we conjecture and give evidence that the existence of these four Gross regime ratios in the RR persists to subleading orders in the Regge expansion of all high-energy fermionic string scattering amplitudes.

  3. Spin glasses in the nonextensive regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wittmann, Matthew; Young, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Spin systems with long-range interactions are “nonextensive” if the strength of the interactions falls off sufficiently slowly with distance. It has been conjectured for ferromagnets and, more recently, for spin glasses that, everywhere in the nonextensive regime, the free energy is exactly equal to that for the infinite range model in which the characteristic strength of the interaction is independent of distance. In this paper we present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of the one-dimensional long-range spin glasses in the nonextensive regime. Using finite-size scaling, our results for the transition temperatures are consistent with this prediction. We also propose and provide numerical evidence for an analogous result for diluted long-range spin glasses in which the coordination number is finite, namely, that the transition temperature throughout the nonextensive regime is equal to that of the infinite-range model known as the Viana-Bray model.

  4. Mental hospital regime in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Andoh, B

    1996-01-01

    Although non-private conventional mental hospitals in England and Wales have been in existence for about two centuries, the literature on the actual regimes in those hospitals is not enormous. Since Goffman's Asylums, things have changed in North America, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. However, not much has been written about the present position. This article (based on qualitative data collected over 12 months) describes the regimes in three conventional mental hospitals in S.E. England. It covers hospital policy on the admission of a patient, daily ward routine, the open-door policy, fire precautions, close observation, seclusion, search of patients and their belongings and the handling of patients' correspondence. It concludes that the regimes are reasonable.

  5. Massive superstring scatterings in the Regge regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Song; Lee, Jen-Chi; Takahashi, Keijiro; Yang, Yi

    2011-03-01

    We calculate four classes of high-energy massive string scattering amplitudes of fermionic string theory at arbitrary mass levels in the Regge regime (RR). We show that all four leading order amplitudes in the RR can be expressed in terms of the Kummer function of the second kind. Based on the summation algorithm of a set of extended signed Stirling number identities, we show that all four ratios calculated previously by the method of decoupling of zero-norm states among scattering amplitudes in the Gross regime can be extracted from this Kummer function in the RR. Finally, we conjecture and give evidence that the existence of these four Gross regime ratios in the RR persists to subleading orders in the Regge expansion of all high-energy fermionic string scattering amplitudes.

  6. Statistical regimes of random laser fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, Stefano; Cavalieri, Stefano; Oppo, Gian-Luca; Wiersma, Diederik S.

    2007-06-15

    Statistical fluctuations of the light emitted from amplifying random media are studied theoretically and numerically. The characteristic scales of the diffusive motion of light lead to Gaussian or power-law (Levy) distributed fluctuations depending on external control parameters. In the Levy regime, the output pulse is highly irregular leading to huge deviations from a mean-field description. Monte Carlo simulations of a simplified model which includes the population of the medium demonstrate the two statistical regimes and provide a comparison with dynamical rate equations. Different statistics of the fluctuations helps to explain recent experimental observations reported in the literature.

  7. Synchronization regimes in conjugate coupled chaotic oscillators.

    PubMed

    Karnatak, Rajat; Ramaswamy, Ram; Prasad, Awadhesh

    2009-09-01

    Nonlinear oscillators that are mutually coupled via dissimilar (or conjugate) variables display distinct regimes of synchronous behavior. In identical chaotic oscillators diffusively coupled in this manner, complete synchronization occurs only by chaos suppression when the coupled subsystems drive each other into a regime of periodic dynamics. Furthermore, the coupling does not vanish but acts as an "internal" drive. When the oscillators are mismatched, phase synchronization occurs, while in a master slave configuration, generalized synchrony results. These effects are demonstrated in a system of coupled chaotic Rossler oscillators.

  8. Anomalous Hall effect in localization regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Lin; Zhu, Kai; Yue, Di; Tian, Yuan; Jin, Xiaofeng

    2016-06-01

    The anomalous Hall effect in the ultrathin film regime is investigated in Fe(001)(1-3 nm) films epitaxial on MgO(001). The logarithmic localization correction to longitudinal resistivity and anomalous Hall resistivity are observed at low temperature. We identify that the coefficient of skew scattering has a reduction from metallic to localized regime, while the contribution of side jump has inconspicuous change except for a small drop below 10 K. Furthermore, we discover that the intrinsic anomalous Hall conductivity decreases with the reduction of thickness below 2 nm. Our results provide unambiguous experimental evidence to clarify the problem of localization correction to the anomalous Hall effect.

  9. Collective working regimes for coupled heat engines.

    PubMed

    Jiménez de Cisneros, B; Hernández, A Calvo

    2007-03-30

    Arrays of coupled heat engines are proposed as a paradigmatic model to study the trade-off between individual and collective behavior in linear irreversible thermodynamics. The analysis reveals the existence of a control parameter which selects different operation regimes of the whole array. In particular, the regimes of maximum efficiency and maximum power are considered, giving for the latter a general derivation of the Curzon-Ahlborn efficiency which surprisingly does not depend on whether or not the individual engines in the array work at maximum power.

  10. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amet, F.; Ke, C. T.; Borzenets, I. V.; Wang, J.; Watanabe, K.; Taniguchi, T.; Deacon, R. S.; Yamamoto, M.; Bomze, Y.; Tarucha, S.; Finkelstein, G.

    2016-05-01

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  11. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime.

    PubMed

    Amet, F; Ke, C T; Borzenets, I V; Wang, J; Watanabe, K; Taniguchi, T; Deacon, R S; Yamamoto, M; Bomze, Y; Tarucha, S; Finkelstein, G

    2016-05-20

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing. PMID:27199424

  12. Convective Regimes in Crystallizing Basaltic Magma Chambers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilbert, A. J.; Neufeld, J. A.; Holness, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    Cooling through the chamber walls drives crystallisation in crustal magma chambers, resulting in a cumulate pile on the floor and mushy regions at the walls and roof. The liquid in many magma chambers, either the bulk magma or the interstitial liquid in the mushy regions, may convect, driven either thermally, due to cooling, or compositionally, due to fractional crystallization. We have constructed a regime diagram of the possible convective modes in a system containing a basal mushy layer. These modes depend on the large-scale buoyancy forcing characterised by a global Rayleigh number and the proportion of the chamber height constituting the basal mushy region. We have tested this regime diagram using an analogue experimental system composed of a fluid layer overlying a pile of almost neutrally buoyant inert particles. Convection in this system is driven thermally, simulating magma convection above and within a porous cumulate pile. We observe a range of possible convective regimes, enabling us to produce a regime diagram. In addition to modes characterised by convection of the bulk and interstitial fluid, we also observe a series of regimes where the crystal pile is mobilised by fluid motions. These regimes feature saltation and scouring of the crystal pile by convection in the bulk fluid at moderate Rayleigh numbers, and large crystal-rich fountains at high Rayleigh numbers. For even larger Rayleigh numbers the entire crystal pile is mobilised in what we call the snowglobe regime. The observed mobilisation regimes may be applicable to basaltic magma chambers. Plagioclase in basal cumulates crystallised from a dense magma may be a result of crystal mobilisation from a plagioclase-rich roof mush. Compositional convection within such a mush could result in disaggregation, enabling the buoyant plagioclase to be entrained in relatively dense descending liquid plumes and brought to the floor. The phenocryst load in porphyritic lavas is often interpreted as a

  13. Integrated reformer and shift reactor

    DOEpatents

    Bentley, Jeffrey M.; Clawson, Lawrence G.; Mitchell, William L.; Dorson, Matthew H.

    2006-06-27

    A hydrocarbon fuel reformer for producing diatomic hydrogen gas is disclosed. The reformer includes a first reaction vessel, a shift reactor vessel annularly disposed about the first reaction vessel, including a first shift reactor zone, and a first helical tube disposed within the first shift reactor zone having an inlet end communicating with a water supply source. The water supply source is preferably adapted to supply liquid-phase water to the first helical tube at flow conditions sufficient to ensure discharge of liquid-phase and steam-phase water from an outlet end of the first helical tube. The reformer may further include a first catalyst bed disposed in the first shift reactor zone, having a low-temperature shift catalyst in contact with the first helical tube. The catalyst bed includes a plurality of coil sections disposed in coaxial relation to other coil sections and to the central longitudinal axis of the reformer, each coil section extending between the first and second ends, and each coil section being in direct fluid communication with at least one other coil section.

  14. Lava Fountaining Discharge Regime driven by Slug-to-Churn Flow Transition. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ripepe, M.; Pioli, L.; Marchetti, E.; Ulivieri, G.

    2013-12-01

    Lava fountaining episodes at Etna volcano appear characterized by the transition between Strombolian and Hawaiian end-member eruptive styles. There is no evidence for this transition in the seismic (i.e. seismic tremor) signal. However, infrasonic records provide unprecedented evidence on this flow transition. Each eruptive episode is characterized by distinctive common trend in the amplitude, waveform and frequency content of the infrasonic wavefield, which evidences the shift from discrete, and transient, strombolian to sustained, and oscillatory, lava fountain dynamics. Large scale experiments on the dynamics of two-phase flow of basaltic magmas show how the transition between different regimes mainly depends on gas volume flow, which in turn controls pressure distribution within the conduit and also magma vesicularity. In particular, while regular large bubble bursting is associated with slug flow regime, large amplitude and low frequency column oscillations are associated with churn flow. In large pipes, transition from slug to churn flow regime is independent on conduit diameter and it is reached at high superficial gas velocity. Lava fountaining episodes at Etna can be thus interpreted as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regimes that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. Based on laboratory experiments, we calculate that transition between these two end-member explosive regimes at Etna occurs when gas superficial velocity is 76 m/s for near-the-vent stagnant magma conditions.

  15. Delinating Thermohaline Double-Diffusive Rayleigh Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graf, T.; Walther, M.; Kolditz, O.; Liedl, R.

    2013-12-01

    In natural systems, convective flow induced from density differences may occur in near-coastal aquifers, atmospheric boundary layers, oceanic streams or within the earth crust. Whether an initially stable, diffusive regime evolves into a convective (stable or chaotic) regime, or vice versa, depends on the system's framing boundary conditions. A conventional parameter to express the relation between diffusive and convective forces of such a density-driven regime is Rayleigh number (Ra). While most systems are mainly dominated by only a single significant driving force (i.e. only temperature or salinity), some systems need to consider two boundary processes (e.g. deep, thus warm, haline flow in porous media). In that case, a two-dimensional, 'double-diffusive' Rayleigh system can be defined. Nield (1998) postulated a boundary between diffusive and convective regime at RaT + RaC = 4pi^2 in the first quadrant (Q1), with Rayleigh numbers for temperature and concentration respectively. The boundary in the forth quadrant (Q4) could not exactly be determined, yet the approximate position estimated. Simulations with HydroGeoSphere (Therrien, 2010) using a vertical, quadratic, homogeneous, isotropic setup confirmed the existence of the 4pi^2-boundary and revealed additional regimes (diffusive, single-roll, double-roll, chaotic) in Q1. Also, non-chaotic, oscillating patterns could be identified in Q4. More detailed investigations with OpenGeoSys (Kolditz, 2012) confirmed the preceding HGS results, and, using a 1:10-scaled domain (height:length), uncovered even more distinctive regimes (diffusive, minimum ten roles, supposely up to 25 roles, and chaotic?) in Q1, while again, oscillating patterns were found in the transition zone between diffusive and chaotic regimes in Q4. Output of numerical simulations from Q1 and Q4 show the mentioned regimes (diffusive, stable-convective, stable-oscillatory, chaotic) while results are displayed in context of a possible delination between

  16. Characteristics of Whipple Shield Performance in the Shatter Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ryan, Shannon; Bjorkman, Michael; Christiansen, Eric L.

    2009-01-01

    Between the onset of projectile fragmentation and the assumption of rear wall failure due to an impulsive load, multi-wall ballistic limit equations are linearly interpolated to provide reasonable yet conservative predictions of perforation thresholds with conveniently simple mathematics. Although low velocity and hypervelocity regime predictions are based on analytical expressions, there is no such scientific foundation for predictions in the intermediate (or shatter) regime. As the debris flux in low earth orbit (LEO) becomes increasingly dominated by manmade pollution, the profile of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk shifts continually towards lower velocities. For the International Space Station (ISS), encounter velocities below 7 km/s now constitute approximately 50% of the penetration risk. Considering that the transition velocity from shatter to hypervelocity impact regimes described by common ballistic limit equations (e.g. new non-optimum Whipple shield equation [1]) occurs at 7 km/s, 50% of station risk is now calculated based on failure limit equations with little analytical foundation. To investigate projectile and shield behavior for impact conditions leading to projectile fragmentation and melt, a series of hypervelocity impact tests have been performed on aluminum Whipple shields. In the experiments projectile diameter, bumper thickness, and shield spacing were kept constant, while rear wall thickness was adjusted to determine spallation and perforation limits at various impact velocities and angles. The results, shown in Figure 1 for normal and 45 impacts, demonstrated behavior that was not sufficiently described by the simplified linear interpolation of the NNO equation (also shown in Figure 1). Hopkins et al. [2] investigated the performance of a nominally-identical aluminum Whipple shield, identifying the effects of phase change in the shatter regime. The results (conceptually represented in Figure 2) were found to agree well with

  17. The shifting foundations of nursing.

    PubMed

    Law, Kate; Aranda, Kay

    2010-08-01

    In this paper we argue that the concerns generated by the development of Foundation Degrees and the Assistant and Associate Practitioner roles have rekindled some of the unresolved debates regarding the status and identity of nursing and nurses. Through the application of the sociological theories of professionalisation and nostalgia we have identified the shifting and unresolved nature of nursing. We argue that these theories continue to have resonance in the current climate of change and 'upskilling' of the health care workforce and argue, that the shifts illuminated are perhaps so significant as to demonstrate that we have entered a post-nursing era.

  18. Intermediate scaling regime for multilayer epitaxial growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, Richard S.; Gyure, Mark F.

    2000-04-01

    We explore the layer-by-layer (Frank-van der Merwe) growth regime within the context of a discrete solid-on-solid kinetic Monte Carlo model. Our results demonstrate a nontrivial scaling of the lattice step edge density, a quantity that oscillates about a nominally constant value prior to the onset of kinetic roughening. This value varies with the ratio of the surface diffusivity to the deposition flux, R≡D/F, as a nearly perfect power law over a wide range of R. This ``intermediate'' scaling regime extends in coverage from one to at least a few tens of monolayers, which is exactly the regime of most importance to the growth of device-quality semiconductor quantum heterostructures. Comparison with lowest-order linear theories for height fluctuations demonstrates the validity of the Wolf-Villain mean-field theory for the description of lattice step density and ``in-plane'' structure for all coverages down to the first monolayer of growth. However, the mean-field theory does not fully account for the surface width in this regime and consequently does not quantitatively predict the observed step density scaling.

  19. Forest damage and snow avalanche flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feistl, T.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Margreth, S.; Diefenbach, L.; Bartelt, P.

    2015-06-01

    Snow avalanches break, uproot and overturn trees causing damage to forests. The extent of forest damage provides useful information on avalanche frequency and intensity. However, impact forces depend on avalanche flow regime. In this paper, we define avalanche loading cases representing four different avalanche flow regimes: powder, intermittent, dry and wet. Using a numerical model that simulates both powder and wet snow avalanches, we study documented events with forest damage. First we show that in the powder regime, although the applied impact pressures can be small, large bending moments in the tree stem can be produced due to the torque action of the blast. The impact area of the blast extends over the entire tree crown. We find that, powder clouds with velocities over 20 m s-1 can break tree stems. Second we demonstrate that intermittent granular loadings are equivalent to low-density uniform dry snow loadings under the assumption of homogeneous particle distributions. The intermittent regime seldom controls tree breakage. Third we calculate quasi-static pressures of wet snow avalanches and show that they can be much higher than pressures calculated using dynamic pressure formulas. Wet snow pressure depends both on avalanche volume and terrain features upstream of the tree.

  20. Forest damage and snow avalanche flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feistl, T.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Margreth, S.; Diefenbach, L.; Bartelt, P.

    2015-01-01

    Snow avalanches break, uproot and overturn trees causing damage to forests. The extent of forest damage provides useful information on avalanche frequency and intensity. However, impact forces depend on avalanche flow regime. In this paper, we define avalanche loading cases representing four different avalanche flow regimes: powder, intermittent, dry and wet. In the powder regime, the blast of the cloud can produce large bending moments in the tree stem because of the impact area extending over the entire tree crown. We demonstrate that intermittent granular loadings are equivalent to low-density uniform dry snow loadings under the assumption of homogeneous particle distributions. In the wet snow case, avalanche pressure is calculated using a quasi-static model accounting for the motion of plug-like wet snow flows. Wet snow pressure depends both on avalanche volume and terrain features upstream of the tree. Using a numerical model that simulates both powder and wet snow avalanches, we study documented events with forest damage. We find (1) powder clouds with velocities over 20 m s-1 can break tree stems, (2) the intermittent regime seldom controls tree breakage and (3) quasi-static pressures of wet snow avalanches can be much higher than pressures calculated using dynamic pressure formulas.

  1. Knowledge Regimes and Contradictions in Education Reforms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aasen, Petter; Prøitz, Tine Sophie; Sandberg, Nina

    2014-01-01

    The article outlines a theoretical framework for understanding education policy and education reforms based on the concept of knowledge regimes. The concept refers to understandings and definitions of governance and procedural aspects, manners of governing and curriculum issues, thus it comprises contents, structures, and processes of education…

  2. Two limiting regimes of interacting Bessel processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andraus, Sergio; Katori, Makoto; Miyashita, Seiji

    2014-06-01

    We consider the interacting Bessel processes, a family of multiple-particle systems in one dimension where particles evolve as individual Bessel processes and repel each other via a log-potential. We consider two limiting regimes for this family on its two main parameters: the inverse temperature β and the Bessel index ν. We obtain the time-scaled steady-state distributions of the processes for the cases where β or ν are large but finite. In particular, for large β we show that the steady-state distribution of the system corresponds to the eigenvalue distribution of the β-Laguerre ensembles of random matrices. We also estimate the relaxation time to the steady state in both cases. We find that in the freezing regime β → ∞, the scaled final positions of the particles are locked at the square root of the zeroes of the Laguerre polynomial of parameter ν - 1/2 for any initial configuration, while in the regime ν → ∞, we prove that the scaled final positions of the particles converge to a single point. In order to obtain our results, we use the theory of Dunkl operators, in particular the intertwining operator of type B. We derive a previously unknown expression for this operator and study its behaviour in both limiting regimes. By using these limiting forms of the intertwining operator, we derive the steady-state distributions, the estimations of the relaxation times and the limiting behaviour of the processes.

  3. A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2014-12-01

    Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

  4. Taxonomy of potential international safeguards regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Lemley, J.R.; Allentuck, J.

    1994-08-01

    Since the International Atomic Energy Agency`s (IAEA) search for the components of Iraq`s nuclear weapons program under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council, a consensus for enhancing, strengthening or expanding the scope of international safeguards has developed. Some of the enhanced safeguards concepts which have been suggested include the following: short-notice, challenge, and random inspections; effluent monitoring in onsite, near site, and fly-by modes; local and wide-area environmental monitoring; and utilization of data from space-platform sensors. Potential safeguards regimes can be classified according to the functional and technical criteria which would be necessary for implementation of various enhanced safeguards concepts. While the nature of the regime which will emerge cannot be predicted, the classification of possible regimes according to major characteristics can be useful for identifying functional criteria and implementation challenges, focusing development efforts on the functional criteria, and planning for efficient use of safeguards resources. Precedents established in previously negotiated treaties -- the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, START, and Open Skies -- are examined with regard to enhancement of the international safeguards regime for nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Bilateral, multilateral and regional integration of enhanced safeguards elements is considered.

  5. The future of the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  6. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    PubMed Central

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-01-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics. PMID:27761005

  7. Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

    2007-01-01

    Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

    2016-06-01

    Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

  9. Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

    2016-06-01

    Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

  10. Leadership Shifts in Changing Field

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2013-01-01

    As groups representing local and state education players struggle to remain relevant in a policy conversation often dominated by foundations, think tanks, new advocacy groups, and political and business figures, a shift in leadership has been under way at major associations. Most of the changes have come as part of the natural churn; former…

  11. Shifting Patterns of Deadly Violence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seiden, Richard H.; Freitas, Raymond P.

    1980-01-01

    While it is true that the total suicide rates has varied little, this composite figure masks a dramatic shift in the risk of suicide by age. In recent years there has been a reduction of suicide at older ages reciprocated by an unprecedented increase of suicide and homicide at younger ages. (Author)

  12. Illinois Shifting Gears Policy Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weitzel, Peter C.

    2009-01-01

    Illinois Shifting Gears is a multilevel initiative that has simultaneously created bridge programs in the field and altered state policy to facilitate the creation of more programs in the future. These efforts have informed each other, giving policymakers the opportunity to interact with practitioners, troubleshoot bridge programs, and make…

  13. Anthropometric changes and fluid shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thornton, W. E.; Hoffler, G. W.; Rummel, J. A.

    1974-01-01

    Several observations of body size, shape, posture, and configuration were made to document changes resulting from direct effects of weightlessness during the Skylab 4 mission. After the crewmen were placed in orbit, a number of anatomical and anthropometric changes occurred including a straightening of the thoracolumbar spine, a general decrease in truncal girth, and an increase in height. By the time of the earliest in-flight measurement on mission day 3, all crewmen had lost more than two liters of extravascular fluid from the calf and thigh. The puffy facies, the bird legs effect, the engorgement of upper body veins, and the reduced volume of lower body veins were all documented with photographs. Center-of-mass measurements confirmed a fluid shift cephalad. This shift remained throughout the mission until recovery, when a sharp reversal occurred; a major portion of the reversal was completed in a few hours. The anatomical changes are of considerable scientific interest and of import to the human factors design engineer, but the shifts of blood and extravascular fluid are of more consequence. It is hypothesized that the driving force for the fluid shift is the intrinsic and unopposed lower limb elasticity that forces venous blood and then other fluid cephalad.

  14. The Shift Needed for Sustainability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Peter A. C.; Sharicz, Carol

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this action research is to begin to assess to what extent organizations have in practice begun to make the shift towards triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability. Design/methodology/approach: A definition of TBL sustainability is provided, and key elements of TBL sustainability considered necessary to success are identified…

  15. Technology Counts 2012: Virtual Shift

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Education Week, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Virtual education is moving into that intersection where rising popularity meets calls for greater accountability. How the virtual education movement responds to those calls will have a significant impact on how it evolves in K-12 over the next five to 10 years. This report tackles this shift in the virtual education landscape. It examines the…

  16. Wavelength-shifted Cherenkov radiators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krider, E. P.; Jacobson, V. L.; Pifer, A. E.; Polakos, P. A.; Kurz, R. J.

    1976-01-01

    The scintillation and Cherenkov responses of plastic Cherenkov radiators containing different wavelength-shifting fluors in varying concentrations have been studied in beams of low energy protons and pions. For cosmic ray applications, where large Cherenkov to scintillation ratios are desired, the optimum fluor concentrations are 0.000025 by weight or less.

  17. Shift control mechanism for a manual transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Gugin, D.G.

    1991-08-06

    This patent describes a shift control mechanism for a manual transmission having a transmission gear housing and a manual shift selecting lever. It comprises a shift selecting shaft mounted within the transmission gear housing for rotation and axial translation in response to selective manipulation of the shift selecting lever; a shift sleeve supported from the transmission gear housing; an actuating member secured to the shift selecting shaft for rotation and axial translation with the shift selecting shaft; synchronizer assemblies; the actuating member individually operating the synchronizer assemblies in response to selected manipulation of the shift selecting lever; alignment guide means interactive between the shift selecting shaft and the transmission gear housing to permit axial translation of the shift selecting shaft only when the shift selecting shaft has been rotated to align a locator means with a locating means.

  18. Size-Dependent Raman Shifts for nanocrystals

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yukun; Zhao, Xinmei; Yin, Penggang; Gao, Faming

    2016-01-01

    Raman spectroscopy is a very sensitive tool for probing semiconductor nanocrystals. The underlying mechanism behind the size-dependent Raman shifts is still quite controversial. Here we offer a new theoretical method for the quantum confinement effects on the Raman spectra of semiconductor nanocrystals. We propose that the shift of Raman spectra in nanocrystals can result from two overlapping effects: the quantum effect shift and surface effect shift. The quantum effect shift is extracted from an extended Kubo formula, the surface effect shift is determined via the first principles calculations. Fairly good prediction of Raman shifts can be obtained without the use of any adjustable parameter. Closer analysis shows that the size-dependent Raman shifts in Si nanocrystals mainly result from the quantum effect shifts. For nanodiamond, the proportion of surface effect shift in Raman shift is up to about 40%. Such model can also provide a good baseline for using Raman spectroscopy as a tool to measure size. PMID:27102066

  19. Size-Dependent Raman Shifts for nanocrystals.

    PubMed

    Gao, Yukun; Zhao, Xinmei; Yin, Penggang; Gao, Faming

    2016-04-22

    Raman spectroscopy is a very sensitive tool for probing semiconductor nanocrystals. The underlying mechanism behind the size-dependent Raman shifts is still quite controversial. Here we offer a new theoretical method for the quantum confinement effects on the Raman spectra of semiconductor nanocrystals. We propose that the shift of Raman spectra in nanocrystals can result from two overlapping effects: the quantum effect shift and surface effect shift. The quantum effect shift is extracted from an extended Kubo formula, the surface effect shift is determined via the first principles calculations. Fairly good prediction of Raman shifts can be obtained without the use of any adjustable parameter. Closer analysis shows that the size-dependent Raman shifts in Si nanocrystals mainly result from the quantum effect shifts. For nanodiamond, the proportion of surface effect shift in Raman shift is up to about 40%. Such model can also provide a good baseline for using Raman spectroscopy as a tool to measure size.

  20. Veritas Detection Of Crab Pulsar: A Paradigm Shift.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyutikov, Maxim; OTTE, N.

    2011-09-01

    The detection of the Crab pulsar by the VERITAS collaboration is a paradigm-shifting discovery in the high energy studies of neutron stars. It excludes a commonly assumed curvature emission mechanism as the main source of photons above GeV energies. We outline a model in which both the X-ray emission and the very high energy gamma-ray emission of pulsars originates via the Synchrotron-Self-Compton process by the secondary plasma within the outer gaps. Scattering occurs in the Klein-Nishina regime, favoring the lower energy (in the UV range) tail of the synchrotron photons. The primary beam is accelerated in a modest electric field, with a value of the order of 0.01 of the magnetic field near the light cylinder; its energy is limited by similar curvature and IC losses. In such radiation reaction-limited regime of particle acceleration the gamma-ray luminosity scales linearly with the pulsar spin-down power. Overall, in the Klein-Nishina regime of the IC scattering the particle distribution in the gap does not evolve towards a stationary state and thus is intrinsically time-dependent.

  1. Phase-shift calibration algorithm for phase-shifting interferometry.

    PubMed

    Chen, X; Gramaglia, M; Yeazell, J A

    2000-11-01

    We propose a novel phase-shift calibration algorithm. With this technique we determine the unknown phase shift between two interferograms by examining the sums and differences of the intensities on each interferogram at the same spatial location, i.e., I1(x, y) +/- I2(x, y). These intensities are normalized so that they become sinusoidal in form. A uniformly illuminated region of the interferograms that contains at least a 2pi variation in phase is examined. The extrema of these sums and differences are found in this region and are used to find the unknown phase shift. An error analysis of the algorithm is provided. In addition, an error-correction algorithm is implemented. The method is tested by numerical simulation and implemented experimentally. The numerical tests, including digitization error, indicate that the phase step has a root-mean-square (RMS) phase error of less than 10(-6) deg. Even in the presence of added intensity noise (5% amplitude) the RMS error does not exceed 1 deg. The accuracy of the technique is not sensitive to nonlinearity in the interferogram. PMID:11059603

  2. Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David; Baskaran, Subbiah

    1995-01-01

    The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

  3. The change of resurfacing regimes on Venus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    The change of volcanic resurfacing regimes on Venus is discussed. The frequency-size distribution of the regional and lobate plains fields suggest that regional plains had likely been formed due to lava flooding. The geological ratios of impact craters with plains units of different ages are analyzed. Only 3% of the craters located on the older regional plains are found to be embayed by plains material. About 50% of the craters located on the younger lobate plains are found to be embayed by plains lavas. Both the frequency-size distribution of the regional plains fields and the number of embayed craters indicate their catastrophic formation. For lobate plains, these parameters indicate a gradual and time-stretched accumulation of their material. Thus, the volcanic resurfacing regimes must have been changing radically throughout the observable portion of the geological history of Venus.

  4. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  5. Marginal Mean Models for Dynamic Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, S. A.; van der Laan, M. J.; Robins, J. M.

    2009-01-01

    A dynamic treatment regime is a list of rules for how the level of treatment will be tailored through time to an individual’s changing severity. In general, individuals who receive the highest level of treatment are the individuals with the greatest severity and need for treatment. Thus there is planned selection of the treatment dose. In addition to the planned selection mandated by the treatment rules, the use of staff judgment results in unplanned selection of the treatment level. Given observational longitudinal data or data in which there is unplanned selection, of the treatment level, the methodology proposed here allows the estimation of a mean response to a dynamic treatment regime under the assumption of sequential randomization. PMID:20019887

  6. The optomechanical instability in the quantum regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Max; Kubala, Björn; Marquardt, Florian

    2008-09-01

    We consider a generic optomechanical system, consisting of a driven optical cavity and a movable mirror attached to a cantilever. Systems of this kind (and analogues) have been realized in many recent experiments. It is well known that these systems can exhibit an instability towards a regime where the cantilever settles into self-sustained oscillations. In this paper, we briefly review the classical theory of the optomechanical instability, and then discuss the features arising in the quantum regime. We solve numerically a full quantum master equation for the coupled system, and use it to analyze the photon number, the cantilever's mechanical energy, the phonon probability distribution and the mechanical Wigner density, as a function of experimentally accessible control parameters. When a suitable dimensionless 'quantum parameter' is sent to zero, the results of the quantum mechanical model converge towards the classical predictions. We discuss this quantum-to-classical transition in some detail.

  7. Bose polarons in the strongly interacting regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kedar, Dhruv; Hu, Ming-Guang; van de Graaff, Michael; Corson, John; Cornell, Eric; Jin, Deborah

    2016-05-01

    Impurities immersed in and interacting with a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) are predicted to form quasiparticle excitations called Bose polarons. I will present experimental evidence of Bose polarons in cold atoms obtained using radio-frequency spectroscopy to measure the excitation spectrum of fermionic K-40 impurities interacting with a BEC of Rb-87 atoms. We use an interspecies Feshbach resonance to tune the interactions between the impurities and the bosons, and we take data in the strongly interacting regime.

  8. Water-gas shift reaction

    SciTech Connect

    Newsome, D.S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent kinetic and mechanistic studies of the water-gas shift reaction, H/sub 2/O(g) + CO(g) reversible CO/sub 2/ + H/sub 2/(g), catalyzed by iron and copper catalysts are reviewed. Composition, structure, active sites, preparation methods, additives, and poisons are discussed relative to each catalyst. New water-gas shift reaction catalyst systems studied are Mo-magnesia, Ni - Mo, Co - Mo, sulfided Co - Mo - Cs, sulfided Co - Mo, sulfided Ni - Mo, Co - Mo - Ni with added alkaki, and Co - Mo with added alkali, Cesium carbonate - cesium acetate - potassium carbonate or potassium acetate - Co - Mo is claimed to be an especially active catalyst. These new catalyst systems are sulfur tolerant and hold promise as catalysts for hydrogenation of high-sulfur coals. (BLM)

  9. Looping through the Lamb Shift

    SciTech Connect

    Hazi, A U

    2007-02-06

    Sometimes in science, a small measurement can have big ramifications. For a team of Livermore scientists, such was the case when they measured a small shift in the spectrum of extremely ionized atoms of uranium. The measurement involves the Lamb shift, a subtle change in the energy of an electron orbiting an atom's nucleus. The precision of the Livermore result was 10 times greater than that of existing measurements, making it the best measurement to date of a complicated correction to the simplest quantum description of how atoms behave. The measurement introduces a new realm in the search for deviations between the theory of quantum electrodynamics (QED), which is an extension of quantum mechanics, and the real world. Such deviations, if discovered, would have far-reaching consequences, indicating that QED is not a fundamental theory of nature.

  10. Anthropometric changes and fluid shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thornton, W. E.; Hoffler, G. W.; Rummel, J. A.

    1977-01-01

    In an effort to obtain the most comprehensive and coherent picture of changes under weightlessness, a set of measurements on Skylab 2 was initiated and at every opportunity, additional studies were added. All pertinent information from ancillary sources were gleaned and collated. On Skylab 2, the initial anthropometric studies were scheduled in conjunction with muscle study. A single set of facial photographs was made in-flight. Additional measurements were made on Skylab 3, with photographs and truncal and limb girth measurements in-flight. Prior to Skylab 4, it was felt there was considerable evidence for large and rapid fluid shifts, so a series of in-flight volume and center of mass measurements and infrared photographs were scheduled to be conducted in the Skylab 4 mission. A number of changes were properly documented for the first time, most important of which were the fluid shifts. The following description of Skylab anthropometrics address work done on Skylab 4 primarily.

  11. Boosting Shift-Invariant Features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hörnlein, Thomas; Jähne, Bernd

    This work presents a novel method for training shift-invariant features using a Boosting framework. Features performing local convolutions followed by subsampling are used to achieve shift-invariance. Other systems using this type of features, e.g. Convolutional Neural Networks, use complex feed-forward networks with multiple layers. In contrast, the proposed system adds features one at a time using smoothing spline base classifiers. Feature training optimizes base classifier costs. Boosting sample-reweighting ensures features to be both descriptive and independent. Our system has a lower number of design parameters as comparable systems, so adapting the system to new problems is simple. Also, the stage-wise training makes it very scalable. Experimental results show the competitiveness of our approach.

  12. Fluctuating fire regimes and their historical effects on genetic variation in an endangered shrubland specialist.

    PubMed

    Vázquez-Miranda, Hernán; Barr, Kelly R; Farquhar, C Craig; Zink, Robert M

    2015-12-01

    The Pleistocene was characterized by worldwide shifts in community compositions. Some of these shifts were a result of changes in fire regimes, which influenced the distribution of species belonging to fire-dependent communities. We studied an endangered juniper-oak shrubland specialist, the black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla). This species was locally extirpated in parts of Texas and Oklahoma by the end of the 1980s as a result of habitat change and loss, predation, brood parasitism, and anthropogenic fire suppression. We sequenced multiple nuclear loci and used coalescence methods to obtain a deeper understanding of historical population trends than that typically available from microsatellites or mtDNA. We compared our estimated population history, a long-term history of the fire regime and ecological niche models representing the mid-Holocene, last glacial maximum, and last interglacial. Our Bayesian skyline plots showed a pattern of historical population fluctuation that was consistent with changing fire regimes. Genetic data suggest that the species is genetically unstructured, and that the current population should be orders of magnitude larger than it is at present. We suggest that fire suppression and habitat loss are primary factors contributing to the recent decline of the BCVI, although the role of climate change since the last glacial maximum is unclear at present. PMID:27069600

  13. The kinetic regime of the Vicsek model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chepizhko, A. A.; Kulinskii, V. L.

    2009-12-01

    We consider the dynamics of the system of self-propelling particles modeled via the Vicsek algorithm in continuum time limit. It is shown that the alignment process for the velocities can be subdivided into two regimes: "fast" kinetic and "slow" hydrodynamic ones. In fast kinetic regime the alignment of the particle velocity to the local neighborhood takes place with characteristic relaxation time. So, that the bigger regions arise with the velocity alignment. These regions align their velocities thus giving rise to hydrodynamic regime of the dynamics. We propose the mean-field-like approach in which we take into account the correlations between density and velocity. The comparison of the theoretical predictions with the numerical simulations is given. The relation between Vicsek model in the zero velocity limit and the Kuramoto model is stated. The mean-field approach accounting for the dynamic change of the neighborhood is proposed. The nature of the discontinuity of the dependence of the order parameter in case of vectorial noise revealed in Gregorie and Chaite, Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 025702 (2004) is discussed and the explanation of it is proposed.

  14. Understanding the Early Regime of Drop Spreading.

    PubMed

    Mitra, Surjyasish; Mitra, Sushanta K

    2016-09-01

    We present experimental data to characterize the spreading of a liquid drop on a substrate kept submerged in another liquid medium. They reveal that drop spreading always begins in a regime dominated by drop viscosity where the spreading radius scales as r ∼ t with a nonuniversal prefactor. This initial viscous regime either lasts in its entirety or switches to an intermediate inertial regime where the spreading radius grows with time following the well-established inertial scaling of r ∼ t(1/2). This latter case depends on the characteristic viscous length scale of the problem. In either case, the final stage of spreading, close to equilibrium, follows Tanner's law. Further experiments performed on the same substrate kept in ambient air reveal a similar trend, albeit with limited spatiotemporal resolution, showing the universal nature of the spreading behavior. It is also found that, for early times of spreading, the process is similar to coalescence of two freely suspended liquid drops, making the presence of the substrate and consequently the three-phase contact line insignificant. PMID:27513708

  15. Lubrication regimes in lumbar total disc arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, A; Shepherd, D E T

    2007-08-01

    A number of total disc arthroplasty devices have been developed. Some concern has been expressed that wear may be a potential failure mode for these devices, as has been seen with hip arthroplasty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the lubrication regimes that occur in lumbar total disc arthroplasty devices. The disc arthroplasty was modelled as a ball-and-socket joint. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication theory was used to calculate the minimum film thickness of the fluid between the bearing surfaces. The lubrication regime was then determined for different material combinations, size of implant, and trunk velocity. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination operate with a boundary lubrication regime. A ceramic-ceramic material combination has the potential to operate with fluid-film lubrication. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination are likely to generate wear debris. In future, it is worth considering a ceramic-ceramic material combination as this is likely to reduce wear.

  16. Constructing an interdisciplinary flow regime recommendation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    It is generally agreed that river rehabilitation most often relies on restoring a more natural flow regime, but credibly defining the desired regime can be problematic. I combined four distinct methods to develop and refine month-by-month and event-based flow recommendations to protect and partially restore the ecological integrity of the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins, Colorado. A statistical hydrologic approach was used to summarize the river's natural flow regime and set provisional monthly flow targets at levels that were historically exceeded 75% of the time. These preliminary monthly targets were supplemented using results from three Poudre-specific disciplinary studies. A substrate maintenance flow model was used to better define the high flows needed to flush accumulated sediment from the river's channel and help sustain the riparian zone in this snowmelt-dominated river. A hydraulic/habitat model and a water temperature model were both used to better define the minimum flows necessary to maintain a thriving cool water fishery. The result is a range of recommended monthly flows and daily flow guidance illustrating the advantage of combining a wide range of available disciplinary information, supplemented by judgment based on ecological principles and a general understanding of river ecosystems, in a highly altered, working river. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

  17. Three-dimensional null point reconnection regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Priest, E. R.; Pontin, D. I.

    2009-12-15

    Recent advances in theory and computational experiments have shown the need to refine the previous categorization of magnetic reconnection at three-dimensional null points--points at which the magnetic field vanishes. We propose here a division into three different types, depending on the nature of the flow near the spine and fan of the null. The spine is an isolated field line which approaches the null (or recedes from it), while the fan is a surface of field lines which recede from it (or approach it). So-called torsional spine reconnection occurs when field lines in the vicinity of the fan rotate, with current becoming concentrated along the spine so that nearby field lines undergo rotational slippage. In torsional fan reconnection field lines near the spine rotate and create a current that is concentrated in the fan with a rotational flux mismatch and rotational slippage. In both of these regimes, the spine and fan are perpendicular and there is no flux transfer across spine or fan. The third regime, called spine-fan reconnection, is the most common in practice and combines elements of the previous spine and fan models. In this case, in response to a generic shearing motion, the null point collapses to form a current sheet that is focused at the null itself, in a sheet that locally spans both the spine and fan. In this regime the spine and fan are no longer perpendicular and there is flux transfer across both of them.

  18. Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinter, N.; Fiedel, S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

  19. Shift work and endocrine disorders.

    PubMed

    Ulhôa, M A; Marqueze, E C; Burgos, L G A; Moreno, C R C

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate the impact of shift and night work on metabolic processes and the role of alterations in the sleep-wake cycle and feeding times and environmental changes in the occurrence of metabolic disorders. The literature review was performed by searching three electronic databases for relevant studies published in the last 10 years. The methodological quality of each study was assessed, and best-evidence synthesis was applied to draw conclusions. The literature has shown changes in concentrations of melatonin, cortisol, ghrelin, and leptin among shift workers. Melatonin has been implicated for its role in the synthesis and action of insulin. The action of this hormone also regulates the expression of transporter glucose type 4 or triggers phosphorylation of the insulin receptor. Therefore, a reduction in melatonin can be associated with an increase in insulin resistance and a propensity for the development of diabetes. Moreover, shift work can negatively affect sleep and contribute to sedentarism, unhealthy eating habits, and stress. Recent studies on metabolic processes have increasingly revealed their complexity. Physiological changes induced in workers who invert their activity-rest cycle to fulfill work hours include disruptions in metabolic processes.

  20. Shift Work and Endocrine Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Ulhôa, M. A.; Marqueze, E. C.; Burgos, L. G. A.; Moreno, C. R. C.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate the impact of shift and night work on metabolic processes and the role of alterations in the sleep-wake cycle and feeding times and environmental changes in the occurrence of metabolic disorders. The literature review was performed by searching three electronic databases for relevant studies published in the last 10 years. The methodological quality of each study was assessed, and best-evidence synthesis was applied to draw conclusions. The literature has shown changes in concentrations of melatonin, cortisol, ghrelin, and leptin among shift workers. Melatonin has been implicated for its role in the synthesis and action of insulin. The action of this hormone also regulates the expression of transporter glucose type 4 or triggers phosphorylation of the insulin receptor. Therefore, a reduction in melatonin can be associated with an increase in insulin resistance and a propensity for the development of diabetes. Moreover, shift work can negatively affect sleep and contribute to sedentarism, unhealthy eating habits, and stress. Recent studies on metabolic processes have increasingly revealed their complexity. Physiological changes induced in workers who invert their activity-rest cycle to fulfill work hours include disruptions in metabolic processes. PMID:25892993

  1. Generalized phase-shifting color digital holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomura, Takanori; Kawakami, Takaaki; Shinomura, Kazuma

    2016-06-01

    Two methods to apply the generalized phase-shifting digital holography to color digital holography are proposed. One is wave-splitting generalized phase-shifting color digital holography. This is realized by using a color Bayer camera. Another is multiple exposure generalized phase-shifting color digital holography. This is realized by the wavelength-dependent phase-shifting devices. Experimental results for both generalized phase-shifting color digital holography are presented to confirm the proposed methods.

  2. Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

    2016-04-01

    Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community diff erentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

  3. Paradigm shifts in Medicare reform.

    PubMed

    Jones, S B; Etheredge, L

    1996-04-01

    Reforms passed by Congress and vetoed by the president during the past year would have accelerated initiatives already transforming Medicare. Operating in a rapidly changing insurance marketplace, Medicare is shifting from a social insurance model toward a private individual insurance model-expanding the number and type of alternative health plans it offers-and growing numbers of beneficiaries are enrolling in these plans. Such reforms, especially if bolstered by legislative reforms that are likely to resurface after the November elections, will rewrite the social contract enacted more than 30 years ago. They require fundamental shifts in ways of thinking about the federal government's responsibilities; the Medicare program's management; relations between the Medicare program and doctors, hospitals, and other health care providers; and the role of beneficiaries in the Medicare program. The likely deferral of further legislative attempts to reform Medicare affords an opportunity to step back and consider these ongoing changes. It is not easy to describe paradigm shifts accurately, but there are advantages to trying. First, conceptual comparisons can allow public discussion to go beyond budget scorekeeping and media soundbites to consider how different the Medicare program will be if it evolves in the new ways being proposed. Second, a conceptual framework can assist health policy analysts to target what to watch for in tracking changes, to assess the tradeoffs involved, and to advise about the needs for refining legislation. This paper includes examples of what to watch for in tracking the implemented changes. The paradigm shifts are summarized below, then described individually in terms of directions of change along a number of continuums. Note that complete paradigm shifts, from one end of a continuum to the other, are seldom completely realized nor even far advanced. But Medicare's ongoing reforms, accelerated by legislative proposals, seem likely predecessors of

  4. Community dynamics of Pleistocene coral reefs during alternative climatic regimes.

    PubMed

    Tager, Danika; Webster, Jody M; Potts, Donald C; Renema, Willem; Braga, Juan C; Pandolfi, John M

    2010-01-01

    Reef ecosystems built during successive periods of Pleistocene sea level rise have shown remarkable persistence in coral community structure, but little is known of the ecological characteristics of reef communities during periods of low sea stands or sea level falls. We sampled the relative species abundance of coral, benthic foraminifera, and calcareous red algae communities from eight submerged coral reefs in the Huon Gulf, Papua New Guinea, which formed during successive sea level fall and lowstand periods over the past approximately kyr. We found that dissimilarity in coral species composition increased significantly with increasing time between reef-building events. However, neither coral diversity nor the taxonomic composition of benthic foraminifera and calcareous red algae assemblages varied significantly over time. The taxonomic composition of coral communities from lowstand reefs was significantly different from that of highstand reefs previously reported from the nearby Huon Peninsula. We interpret the community composition and temporal dynamics of lowstand reefs as a result of shifting energy regimes in the Huon Gulf, and differences between low and highstand reefs as a result of differences in the interaction between biotic and environmental factors between the Huon Gulf and Huon Peninsula. Regardless of the exact processes driving these trends, our study represents the first glimpse into the ecological dynamics of coral reefs during low sea level stands when climatic conditions for reef growth were much different and less optimal than during previously studied highstand periods. PMID:20380208

  5. Chemical shifts of small heterogeneous Ar/Xe clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Lindblad, A.; Rander, T.; Bradeanu, I.; Oehrwall, G.; Bjoerneholm, O.; Mucke, M.; Ulrich, V.; Lischke, T.; Hergenhahn, U.

    2011-03-15

    Heterogeneous rare-gas clusters produced by a coexpansion of an argon/xenon mixture have been studied using synchrotron-radiation-based photoelectron spectroscopy. Both valence and Xe 4d{sub 5/2} core-level photoelectron spectra were recorded for three different concentrations of the primary argon/xenon mixture and, for those mixtures, spectra were recorded at several different stagnation conditions. The studied size regime of the mixed clusters ranges from large, similar to those studied in an earlier paper [Phys. Rev. A 69, 031210(R) (2004)], to very small--as reflected in the cluster line shapes and chemical shifts. The chemical shifts obtained from a curve fitting procedure similar to that used in our earlier paper are discussed in terms of the mixed cluster structure which can be expected from equilibrium considerations and the Lennard-Jones parameters of the constituent atoms. Molecular dynamics simulations of the vertical polarization shifts allow more specific assignments of ''on-top'' sites and interfacial sites.

  6. Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Monleon, Vicente J.; Lintz, Heather E.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change. PMID:25634090

  7. Work-shift period and weight change.

    PubMed

    Geliebter, A; Gluck, M E; Tanowitz, M; Aronoff, N J; Zammit, G K

    2000-01-01

    The present study was done to determine whether weight gain was more prevalent in workers on late shifts than in those on day shifts. A questionnaire about changes in weight, food intake, exercise, and sleep since starting the job on the current shift was given to day-shift and late-shift (evening and night) hospital workers. Data were analyzed for 85 subjects, 36 of whom worked during the day shift and 49 the late shift. The late-shift group reported a mean weight gain of 4.3 kg, which was greater than the mean weight gain of 0.9 kg for the day-shift group (P = 0.02). There were, however, no significant differences in current body mass index (26.7 +/- 5.4 SD) between groups. There was a trend for late-shift workers to report eating more since beginning the later shift (P = 0.06). When combined with those reporting exercising less (P = NS), this trend became significant (P = 0.04). Late-shift workers reported eating fewer meals (1.9 +/- 0.9 SD) than the day-shift workers (2.5 +/- 0.9; P = 0.002). In addition, late-shift workers reported eating the last daily meal later (mean = 22:27, or 10:27 PM) than day-shift workers (17:52 or 5:52 PM; P < 0.00005). Late-shift workers also reported more naps (P = 0.01) and longer naps (P = 0.05) during the work week than did day-shift workers. The reported changes in eating, exercise, and sleep may contribute to the increased weight gain of late-shift workers.

  8. Resonant magneto-optic Kerr effects of a single Ni nanorod in the Mie scattering regime.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Ho-Jin; Kim, Dongha; Song, Jung-Hwan; Jeong, Kwang-Yong; Seo, Min-Kyo

    2016-07-25

    We present a systematic, theoretical investigation of the polar magneto-optical (MO) Kerr effects of a single Ni nanorod in the Mie regime. The MO Kerr rotation, ellipticity, amplitude ratio, and phase shift are calculated as a function of the length and width of the nanorod. The electric field amplitude ratio of the MO Kerr effect is locally maximized when the nanorod supports a plasmonic resonance in the polarization state orthogonal to the incident light. The plasmonic resonances directly induced by the incident light do not enhance the amplitude ratio. In the Mie regime, multiple local maxima of the MO Kerr activity are supported by the resonant modes with different modal characteristics. From the viewpoint of first-order perturbation analysis, the spatial overlap between the incident-light-induced electric field and the Green function determines the local maxima. PMID:27464142

  9. THE DYNAMIC REGIME CONCEPT FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic regimes of ecosystems are multidimensional basis of attraction, characterized by particular species communities and ecosystems processes. Ecosystem patterns and processes rarely respond linerarly to disturbances, and the nonlinear cynamic regime concept offers a more real...

  10. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  11. Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

    2016-08-01

    In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than ~25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than ~25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant

  12. The discrete regime of flame propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew

    The propagation of laminar dust flames in iron dust clouds was studied in a low-gravity envi-ronment on-board a parabolic flight aircraft. The elimination of buoyancy-induced convection and particle settling permitted measurements of fundamental combustion parameters such as the burning velocity and the flame quenching distance over a wide range of particle sizes and in different gaseous mixtures. The discrete regime of flame propagation was observed by substitut-ing nitrogen present in air with xenon, an inert gas with a significantly lower heat conductivity. Flame propagation in the discrete regime is controlled by the heat transfer between neighbor-ing particles, rather than by the particle burning rate used by traditional continuum models of heterogeneous flames. The propagation mechanism of discrete flames depends on the spa-tial distribution of particles, and thus such flames are strongly influenced by local fluctuations in the fuel concentration. Constant pressure laminar dust flames were observed inside 70 cm long, 5 cm diameter Pyrex tubes. Equally-spaced plate assemblies forming rectangular chan-nels were placed inside each tube to determine the quenching distance defined as the minimum channel width through which a flame can successfully propagate. High-speed video cameras were used to measure the flame speed and a fiber optic spectrometer was used to measure the flame temperature. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained from a numerical model of a three-dimensional flame developed to capture both the discrete nature and the random distribution of particles in the flame. Though good qualitative agreement was obtained between model predictions and experimental observations, residual g-jitters and the short reduced-gravity periods prevented further investigations of propagation limits in the dis-crete regime. The full exploration of the discrete flame phenomenon would require high-quality, long duration reduced gravity environment

  13. River Flow Regimes and Effective Discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basso, S.; Sprocati, R.; Frascati, A.; Marani, M.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of effective discharge is widespread in geomorphology and river engineering and restoration. For example, it is used to design the most stable channel configuration, to estimate sedimentation rate and lifespan of reservoirs and to characterize the hydrologic forcing in models studying long-term evolution of rivers. Accordingly, the effective discharge has been the focus of countless empirical, theoretical and numerical studies, which found it to vary among catchments as a function of climate, landscape and river morphology, type of transport (dissolved, suspended or bedload), and of streamflow variability. The heterogeneity of the effective discharge values observed in different catchments challenges a thorough understanding of its pivotal drivers, and a consistent framework which explains observations carried out in different geographic areas is still lacking. In the present work, the observed diversity is explained in terms of the underlying heterogeneity of river flow regimes, by linking effective discharge to attributes of the sediment rating curve and to streamflow variability, as resulting from climatic and landscape drivers. An analytic expression of the effective ratio (i.e. the ratio between effective discharge and mean streamflow) is provided, which captures observed values of effective discharge for suspended sediment transport in a set of catchments of the continental United States. The framework disentangles hydrologic and landscape controls on effective discharge, and highlights distinct effective ratios of persistent and erratic hydrologic regimes (respectively characterized by low and high flow variability), attributable to intrinsically different streamflow dynamics. Clusters of river catchments characterized by similar streamflow dynamics can be identified. The framework provides an opportunity for first-order estimates of effective discharge in rivers belonging to different areas, based on the type of flow regime.

  14. Bose Polarons in the Strongly Interacting Regime.

    PubMed

    Hu, Ming-Guang; Van de Graaff, Michael J; Kedar, Dhruv; Corson, John P; Cornell, Eric A; Jin, Deborah S

    2016-07-29

    When an impurity is immersed in a Bose-Einstein condensate, impurity-boson interactions are expected to dress the impurity into a quasiparticle, the Bose polaron. We superimpose an ultracold atomic gas of ^{87}Rb with a much lower density gas of fermionic ^{40}K impurities. Through the use of a Feshbach resonance and radio-frequency spectroscopy, we characterize the energy, spectral width, and lifetime of the resultant polaron on both the attractive and the repulsive branches in the strongly interacting regime. The width of the polaron in the attractive branch is narrow compared to its binding energy, even as the two-body scattering length diverges. PMID:27517776

  15. Efficiency of Rectification: Reversible vs. Irreversible Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, I. M.

    2002-11-01

    Both man-made locomotive devices and molecular motors use gears to transform a reciprocating motion into a directed one. One of the most common gears is a rectifier, a mechanically irreversible appliance. The maximal energetic efficiency of an isothermic gear is bounded by unity, as a consequence of the Second Law. However, approaching this ideal efficiency does not imply approaching reversibility. We discuss what properties of a rectifier mostly influence the transduction efficiency and show that an appliance which locks under backward force is just the one which can approach the ideal efficiency either in the reversible or in the irreversible regime.

  16. Bose Polarons in the Strongly Interacting Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Ming-Guang; Van de Graaff, Michael J.; Kedar, Dhruv; Corson, John P.; Cornell, Eric A.; Jin, Deborah S.

    2016-07-01

    When an impurity is immersed in a Bose-Einstein condensate, impurity-boson interactions are expected to dress the impurity into a quasiparticle, the Bose polaron. We superimpose an ultracold atomic gas of 87Rb with a much lower density gas of fermionic 40 impurities. Through the use of a Feshbach resonance and radio-frequency spectroscopy, we characterize the energy, spectral width, and lifetime of the resultant polaron on both the attractive and the repulsive branches in the strongly interacting regime. The width of the polaron in the attractive branch is narrow compared to its binding energy, even as the two-body scattering length diverges.

  17. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  18. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  19. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  20. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  1. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  2. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement among the United States, the United Kingdom,...

  3. The relationship between void waves and flow regime transition

    SciTech Connect

    Lahey, R.T. Jr.; Drew, D.A.; Kalkach-Navarro, S.; Park, J.W.

    1992-12-31

    The results of an extensive experimental and analytical study on the relationship between void waves and flow regime transition are presented, in particular, the bubbly/slug flow regime transition. It is shown that void wave instability signals a flow regime transition.

  4. Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment

    SciTech Connect

    Loungani, P.

    1986-01-01

    Some recent research has taken the view that sectoral or industry-specific shocks significantly affect aggregate unemployment by increasing the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required. The empirical evidence for this view rests on the finding that during the 1950s - and again during the 1970s - there was a positive correlation between aggregate unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth rates. This thesis demonstrates that this correlation arises largely because oil price shocks affect both unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth. Once the dispersion due to oil shocks is accounted for, the residual dispersion in employment has very low explanatory power for unemployment. Since the dispersion index does not measure pure sectoral shifts, an alternate measure of dispersion is developed that serves as a better proxy for the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required each period. Estimates using this measure suggest that, during the 1950s, temporary increases in the relative price of oil were responsible for generating the observed correlation. On the other hand, sectoral shifts were important during the 1970s; in particular, the 1973 oil price increase has had significant reallocative effects on the economy. This contention is subjected to further tests by looking at the time-series behavior of employment in durable-goods industries and also by following the inter-industry movements of workers over time through the use of panel data.

  5. Phase-locked states and abrupt shifts in Pacific climate indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglass, David H.

    2013-10-01

    Douglass has shown that ENSO index aNino3.4 contains segments phase locked to subharmonics of the annual solar cycle and also that a set of indices including aNino3.4 shows abrupt shifts between these phase-locked states. Here, four additional Pacific indices are studied. These five indices show that the Pacific climate system alternates between two regimes: (1) Solar cycle (SOL), (2) Teleconnections (TEL). During SOL each index shows two components that are phase locked to the solar cycle. The first is at the annual cycle, while the second is at a subharmonic of the annual cycle. During TEL abrupt climate shifts occur.

  6. Development of the One-Sided Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Serror, Judith A.

    2009-01-01

    The new development of a one-sided nonlinear adaptive shift estimation technique (NADSET) is introduced. The background of the algorithm and a brief overview of NADSET are presented. The new technique is applied to the wind parameter estimates from a 2-micron wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system called VALIDAR located in NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. The new technique enhances wind parameters such as Doppler shift and power estimates in low Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR) regimes using the estimates in high SNR regimes as the algorithm scans the range bins from low to high altitude. The original NADSET utilizes the statistics in both the lower and the higher range bins to refine the wind parameter estimates in between. The results of the two different approaches of NADSET are compared.

  7. Measuring phase shifts and energy dissipation with amplitude modulation atomic force microscopy.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Nicolás F; García, Ricardo

    2006-04-14

    By recording the phase angle difference between the excitation force and the tip response in amplitude modulation AFM it is possible to image compositional variations in heterogeneous samples. In this contribution we address some of the experimental issues relevant to perform phase contrast imaging measurements. Specifically, we study the dependence of the phase shift on the tip-surface separation, interaction regime, cantilever parameters, free amplitude and tip-surface dissipative processes. We show that phase shift measurements can be converted into energy dissipation values. Energy dissipation curves show a maximum (∼10 eV/cycle) with the amplitude ratio. Furthermore, energy dissipation maps provide a robust method to image material properties because they do not depend directly on the tip-surface interaction regime. Compositional contrast images are illustrated by imaging conjugated molecular islands deposited on silicon surfaces. PMID:21727409

  8. Giantically blue-shifted visible light in femtosecond mid-IR filament in fluorides.

    PubMed

    Dormidonov, A E; Kompanets, V O; Chekalin, S V; Kandidov, V P

    2015-11-01

    A giant blue shift (more than 3000 nm) of an isolated visible band of supercontinuum was discovered and studied in the single filament regime of Mid-IR femtosecond laser pulse at powers slightly exceeding critical power for self-focusing in fluorides. At the pulse central wavelength increasing from 3000 nm to 3800 nm the spectral maximum of the visible band is shifted from 570 nm and 520 nm up to 400 nm and 330 nm for BaF(2) and CaF(2), respectively, its spectral width (FWHM) being reduced from 50 - 70 nm to 14 nm. It is shown that the formation of this narrow visible wing is a result of the interference of the supercontinuum components in the anomalous group velocity dispersion regime. PMID:26561190

  9. Measuring phase shifts and energy dissipation with amplitude modulation atomic force microscopy.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Nicolás F; García, Ricardo

    2006-04-14

    By recording the phase angle difference between the excitation force and the tip response in amplitude modulation AFM it is possible to image compositional variations in heterogeneous samples. In this contribution we address some of the experimental issues relevant to perform phase contrast imaging measurements. Specifically, we study the dependence of the phase shift on the tip-surface separation, interaction regime, cantilever parameters, free amplitude and tip-surface dissipative processes. We show that phase shift measurements can be converted into energy dissipation values. Energy dissipation curves show a maximum (∼10 eV/cycle) with the amplitude ratio. Furthermore, energy dissipation maps provide a robust method to image material properties because they do not depend directly on the tip-surface interaction regime. Compositional contrast images are illustrated by imaging conjugated molecular islands deposited on silicon surfaces.

  10. Elastic regimes of subisostatic athermal fiber networks.

    PubMed

    Licup, A J; Sharma, A; MacKintosh, F C

    2016-01-01

    Athermal models of disordered fibrous networks are highly useful for studying the mechanics of elastic networks composed of stiff biopolymers. The underlying network architecture is a key aspect that can affect the elastic properties of these systems, which include rich linear and nonlinear elasticity. Existing computational approaches have focused on both lattice-based and off-lattice networks obtained from the random placement of rods. It is not obvious, a priori, whether the two architectures have fundamentally similar or different mechanics. If they are different, it is not clear which of these represents a better model for biological networks. Here, we show that both approaches are essentially equivalent for the same network connectivity, provided the networks are subisostatic with respect to central force interactions. Moreover, for a given subisostatic connectivity, we even find that lattice-based networks in both two and three dimensions exhibit nearly identical nonlinear elastic response. We provide a description of the linear mechanics for both architectures in terms of a scaling function. We also show that the nonlinear regime is dominated by fiber bending and that stiffening originates from the stabilization of subisostatic networks by stress. We propose a generalized relation for this regime in terms of the self-generated normal stresses that develop under deformation. Different network architectures have different susceptibilities to the normal stress but essentially exhibit the same nonlinear mechanics. Such a stiffening mechanism has been shown to successfully capture the nonlinear mechanics of collagen networks. PMID:26871101

  11. Revealing the quantum regime in tunnelling plasmonics.

    PubMed

    Savage, Kevin J; Hawkeye, Matthew M; Esteban, Rubén; Borisov, Andrei G; Aizpurua, Javier; Baumberg, Jeremy J

    2012-11-22

    When two metal nanostructures are placed nanometres apart, their optically driven free electrons couple electrically across the gap. The resulting plasmons have enhanced optical fields of a specific colour tightly confined inside the gap. Many emerging nanophotonic technologies depend on the careful control of this plasmonic coupling, including optical nanoantennas for high-sensitivity chemical and biological sensors, nanoscale control of active devices, and improved photovoltaic devices. But for subnanometre gaps, coherent quantum tunnelling becomes possible and the system enters a regime of extreme non-locality in which previous classical treatments fail. Electron correlations across the gap that are driven by quantum tunnelling require a new description of non-local transport, which is crucial in nanoscale optoelectronics and single-molecule electronics. Here, by simultaneously measuring both the electrical and optical properties of two gold nanostructures with controllable subnanometre separation, we reveal the quantum regime of tunnelling plasmonics in unprecedented detail. All observed phenomena are in good agreement with recent quantum-based models of plasmonic systems, which eliminate the singularities predicted by classical theories. These findings imply that tunnelling establishes a quantum limit for plasmonic field confinement of about 10(-8)λ(3) for visible light (of wavelength λ). Our work thus prompts new theoretical and experimental investigations into quantum-domain plasmonic systems, and will affect the future of nanoplasmonic device engineering and nanoscale photochemistry.

  12. Variety of synchronous regimes in neuronal ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, M. A.; Osipov, G. V.; Suykens, J. A. K.

    2008-09-01

    We consider a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of oscillatory activity in neurons of the snail Helix pomatia. This model has a distinctive feature: It demonstrates multistability in oscillatory and silent modes that is typical for the thalamocortical neurons. A single neuron cell can demonstrate a variety of oscillatory activity: Regular and chaotic spiking and bursting behavior. We study collective phenomena in small and large arrays of nonidentical cells coupled by models of electrical and chemical synapses. Two single elements coupled by electrical coupling show different types of synchronous behavior, in particular in-phase and antiphase synchronous regimes. In an ensemble of three inhibitory synaptically coupled elements, the phenomenon of sequential synchronous dynamics is observed. We study the synchronization phenomena in the chain of nonidentical neurons at different oscillatory behavior coupled with electrical and chemical synapses. Various regimes of phase synchronization are observed: (i) Synchronous regular and chaotic spiking; (ii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting; and (iii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting with different numbers of spikes inside the bursts. We detect and study the effect of collective synchronous burst generation due to the cluster formation and the oscillatory death.

  13. Post-Cold War Effects on the Non-proliferation Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Kessler, Carol E.

    2006-03-31

    This journal article analyzes nuclear and security related events of the past 15 years to illustrate the changes in geopolitics and the shifting balance of power following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reflection upon these events establishes the context for strengthening the nonproliferation regime. The author concludes that post Soviet communism hastened the movement towards a unipolar system with hegemonic power vested in the United States, and this geopolitical imbalance fostered insecurities and greater threats. Multilateral cooperation and commitment from the US would help this leader achieve its goal of security through increased global confidence in the international system.

  14. Understanding covariate shift in model performance

    PubMed Central

    McGaughey, Georgia; Walters, W. Patrick; Goldman, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Three (3) different methods (logistic regression, covariate shift and k-NN) were applied to five (5) internal datasets and one (1) external, publically available dataset where covariate shift existed. In all cases, k-NN’s performance was inferior to either logistic regression or covariate shift. Surprisingly, there was no obvious advantage for using covariate shift to reweight the training data in the examined datasets. PMID:27803797

  15. Option pricing with regime switching by trinomial tree method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Fei Lung; Yang, Hailiang

    2010-02-01

    We present a fast and simple tree model to price simple and exotic options in Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) with multi-regime. We modify the trinomial tree model of Boyle (1986) [12] by controlling the risk neutral probability measure in different regime states to ensure that the tree model can accommodate the data of all different regimes at the same time preserving its combining tree structure. In MRSM, the market might not be complete, therefore we provide some ideas and discussions on managing the regime switching risk in support of our results.

  16. Distinct Transport Regimes for Two Elastically Coupled Molecular Motors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Florian; Keller, Corina; Klumpp, Stefan; Lipowsky, Reinhard

    2012-05-01

    Cooperative cargo transport by two molecular motors involves an elastic motor-motor coupling, which can reduce the motors’ velocity and/or enhance their unbinding from the filament. We show theoretically that these interference effects lead, in general, to four distinct transport regimes. In addition to a weak coupling regime, kinesin and dynein motors are found to exhibit a strong coupling and an enhanced unbinding regime, whereas myosin motors are predicted to attain a reduced velocity regime. All of these regimes, which we derive by explicit calculations and general time scale arguments, can be explored experimentally by varying the elastic coupling strength.

  17. Discrete radon transform with shift of coordinate

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, X.; Wu, L.

    1994-12-31

    This paper describes the Radon transform with shift of coordinates. The appropriate shift value of spatial coordinate gives less alias in the data reconstruction and the appropriate shift value of frequency coordinate makes the reconstruction stable. The method is suitable to signal processing of seismogram, an example of wave field separation to practical VSP data is shown in the paper.

  18. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

    PubMed

    Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

    2010-11-17

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

  19. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range

    PubMed Central

    Parajka, J.; Kohnová, S.; Bálint, G.; Barbuc, M.; Borga, M.; Claps, P.; Cheval, S.; Dumitrescu, A.; Gaume, E.; Hlavčová, K.; Merz, R.; Pfaundler, M.; Stancalie, G.; Szolgay, J.; Blöschl, G.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

  20. Suppression of self-pulsing regime of direct current driven microplasma discharges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahamud, Rajib; Farouk, Tanvir

    2016-05-01

    An instability suppressor circuit for self-pulsing direct current (DC) driven microplasma discharge is proposed and experimentally tested over a range of pd values for helium feed gas. The external circuit configuration suppresses self-pulsing of the discharge, extending the normal glow regime to lower currents. The negative differential resistance (NDR) region was observed to shift further left in the voltage-current parametric space (i.e., lower current), and the slope of the NDR region was decreased substantially. In addition, the suppressor element decreased the pulsing frequency as well as the static positive resistance of the discharge in the shifted NDR region. Modeling of the discharge configuration indicated that the inductor element of the suppressor circuit increases the time lag of the plasma response, which increases the stable region of operation. A stability map in terms of the external circuit parameters is introduced.

  1. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, Matteo; Schindler, Anne; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Toreti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day succession of circulation patterns (i.e. the "weather regimes", or "weather types") over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examined the variability of occurrence frequency of weather types from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies related to this one. We found significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather types associated with the phase shifts of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

  2. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

    PubMed

    Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

    2010-11-17

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.

  3. Evolution of the rainfall regime in the United Arab Emirates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Charron, C.; Niranjan Kumar, K.; Marpu, P. R.; Ghedira, H.; Molini, A.; Khayal, I.

    2014-06-01

    Arid and semiarid climates occupy more than 1/4 of the land surface of our planet, and are characterized by a strongly intermittent hydrologic regime, posing a major threat to the development of these regions. Despite this fact, a limited number of studies have focused on the climatic dynamics of precipitation in desert environments, assuming the rainfall input - and their temporal trends - as marginal compared with the evaporative component. Rainfall series at four meteorological stations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were analyzed for assessment of trends and detection of change points. The considered variables were total annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall; annual, seasonal and monthly maximum rainfall; and the number of rainy days per year, season and month. For the assessment of the significance of trends, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s test were applied. Results show that most annual series present decreasing trends, although not statistically significant at the 5% level. The analysis of monthly time series reveals strong decreasing trends mainly occurring in February and March. Many trends for these months are statistically significant at the 10% level and some trends are significant at the 5% level. These two months account for most of the total annual rainfall in the UAE. To investigate the presence of sudden changes in rainfall time-series, the cumulative sum method and a Bayesian multiple change point detection procedure were applied to annual rainfall series. Results indicate that a change point happened around 1999 at all stations. Analyses were performed to evaluate the evolution of characteristics before and after 1999. Student’s t-test and Levene’s test were applied to determine if a change in the mean and/or in the variance occurred at the change point. Results show that a decreasing shift in the mean has occurred in the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days at all four stations, and that the variance has

  4. Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

    2015-12-01

    Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime

  5. Hubbert's Peak: the Impending World oil Shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deffeyes, K. S.

    2004-12-01

    Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis. In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right. Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American.2 None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy. Even the poorest nations need fuel to run irrigation pumps. The industrialized nations will be bidding against one another for the dwindling oil supply. The good news is that we will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

  6. Nursing shortage: impending doom or challenging opportunity?

    PubMed

    Odom, J

    2000-10-01

    A nursing shortage currently exists and is expected to worsen. This shortage is different from shortages of the past with no easy solutions. The reasons for the shortage are multifaceted and require short-term and long-term answers. The aging of the RN workforce, a decrease in the number of persons entering nursing, managed care, and increasing acuity of patients in the hospital setting have contributed to this situation. Perianesthesia nurses can expect to feel the impact of the shortage quickly because this shortage is affecting specialty areas such as PACU, the OR, and ICU in particular. We need to become proactive in the search for solutions and view this time as a challenging opportunity.

  7. Signs of an Impending Hard Disk Crash

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldborough, Reid

    2004-01-01

    If you have worked with computers for any length of time, you have undoubtedly heard the warnings and the recommendations. Data stored on PCs can disappear in a nanosecond. You need to back up any crucial data you cannot risk losing. Ideally, you should store at least one set of crucial back-up data off-site in case of a fire, flood or other…

  8. An Impending Crisis: The Disappearance of Exceptionalities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coleman, Laurence J.

    1977-01-01

    A humorous satire on the proliferation of categories of exceptionalities, the article parodies current research by discussing the problem of disappearing exceptionalities in relation to imaginary interviews, research programs, and teacher reactions. (GW)

  9. E-waste hazard: The impending challenge

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Violet N.

    2008-01-01

    Electronic waste or e-waste is one of the rapidly growing problems of the world. E-waste comprises of a multitude of components, some containing toxic substances that can have an adverse impact on human health and the environment if not handled properly. In India, e-waste management assumes greater significance not only due to the generation of its own e-waste but also because of the dumping of e-waste from developed countries. This is coupled with India's lack of appropriate infrastructure and procedures for its disposal and recycling. This review article provides a concise overview of India's current e-waste scenario, namely magnitude of the problem, environmental and health hazards, current disposal and recycling operations, existing legal framework, organizations working on this issue and recommendations for action. PMID:20040981

  10. Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate.

    PubMed

    Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Eric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

  11. Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate.

    PubMed

    Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Eric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. PMID:24223888

  12. Is there evidence for a shift in fish growth and recruitment success linked to climate change?

    PubMed

    Nunn, A D; Frear, P A; Lee, M; Cowx, I G

    2010-11-01

    This study investigated whether a putative shift in climate regime in the North Atlantic in the 1990s coincided with changes in the growth and recruitment of roach Rutilus rutilus in the north-east of England. The relationships between R. rutilus growth and recruitment and the environment were significantly different before and after the putative shift in climate regime. Water temperature, river discharge, growth, recruitment success and the Gulf Stream Index co-varied until the late 1990s, indicating a gradual progression between periods of warm-and-dry and cold-and-wet summers. Since the late 1990s, there has been an increased prevalence of warm-and-wet summers, and recruitment success has oscillated between extremes on an almost annual basis. The north wall (northern boundary) of the Gulf Stream has been undergoing a displacement south since the late 1990s, and the speed and amplitude of the change appears to support the hypothesis that there was a regime shift in the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a continued displacement south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream will lead to further increases in river discharge, reductions in water temperature and reduced fish growth and recruitment success in the long term.

  13. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

  14. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

  15. Energy-efficient Encoding by Shifting Spikes in Neocortical Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Malyshev, Aleksey; Tchumatchenko, Tatjana; Volgushev, Stanislav; Volgushev, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    The speed of computations in neocortical networks critically depends on the ability of populations of spiking neurons to rapidly detect subtle changes of the input and translate them into firing rate changes. However, high sensitivity to perturbations may lead to explosion of noise and increased energy consumption. Can neuronal networks reconcile the requirements for high sensitivity, operation in low-noise regime and constrained energy consumption? Using intracellular recordings in slices from rat visual cortex we show that layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons are highly sensitive to minor input perturbations. They can change their population firing rate in response to small artificial excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) immersed in fluctuating noise very quickly, within 2–2.5 ms. These quick responses were mediated by generation of new, additional action potentials, but also by shifting spikes into the response peak. In that latter case, the spike count increase during the peak and the decrease after the peak cancelled each other, thus producing quick responses without increases of total spike count and associated energy costs. The contribution of spikes from one or the other source depended on the EPSC timing relative to the waves of depolarization produced by on-going activity. Neurons responded by shifting spikes to EPSCs arriving at the beginning of a depolarization wave, but generated additional spikes in response to EPSCs arriving towards the end of a wave. We conclude that neuronal networks can combine high sensitivity to perturbations and operation in low-noise regime. Moreover, certain patterns of on-going activity favor this combination and energy-efficient computations. PMID:23941643

  16. Stable operating regime for traveling wave devices

    DOEpatents

    Carlsten, Bruce E.

    2000-01-01

    Autophase stability is provided for a traveling wave device (TWD) electron beam for amplifying an RF electromagnetic wave in walls defining a waveguide for said electromagnetic wave. An off-axis electron beam is generated at a selected energy and has an energy noise inherently arising from electron gun. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide at a second radius. The waveguide structure is designed to obtain a selected detuning of the electron beam. The off-axis electron beam has a velocity and the second radius to place the electron beam at a selected distance from the walls defining the waveguide, wherein changes in a density of the electron beam due to the RF electromagnetic wave are independent of the energy of the electron beam to provide a concomitant stable operating regime relative to the energy noise.

  17. Nonlinear regimes of forced magnetic reconnection

    SciTech Connect

    Vekstein, G.; Kusano, K.

    2015-09-15

    This letter presents a self-consistent description of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection in Taylor's model of this process. If external boundary perturbation is strong enough, nonlinearity in the current sheet evolution becomes important before resistive effects come into play. This terminates the current sheet shrinking that takes place at the linear stage and brings about its nonlinear equilibrium with a finite thickness. Then, in theory, this equilibrium is destroyed by a finite plasma resistivity during the skin-time, and further reconnection proceeds in the Rutherford regime. However, realization of such a scenario is unlikely because of the plasmoid instability, which is fast enough to develop before the transition to the Rutherford phase occurs. The suggested analytical theory is entirely different from all previous studies and provides proper interpretation of the presently available numerical simulations of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection.

  18. Regime Changes in California Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero, E. C.; Kessomkiat, W.; Mauget, S.

    2008-12-01

    Annual and seasonal temperature trends are analyzed for California using surface data from the US Historical Climate Network and the larger COOP network. While trends in Tmax and Tmin both show warming over the last 50 years, the temporal and spatial structure of these trends is quite different. An analysis using Mann Whitney U statistics reveals that the patterns of warming and cooling from individual stations have a distinct temporal signature that differs between Tmax and Tmin. Significant cooling trends in Tmin are found between 1920-1958, while significant warming only starts after the 1970s. In contrast, Tmax trends show a more variable pattern of warming and cooling between 1920-1980, with California wide warming only occurring after 1980. These results suggest regime changes in California temperature trends that could only occur through large scale forcing. A discussion of the various forcing mechanisms contributing to California trends and their spatial and temporal variability will be presented.

  19. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Ming-Tso; Amet, François; Ke, Chung-Ting; Borzenets, Ivan; Wang, Jiyingmei; Watanabe, Keji; Taniguchi, Takashi; Deacon, Russell; Yamamoto, Michihisa; Bomze, Yuriy; Tarucha, Seigo; Finkelstein, Gleb

    Combining superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect is a promising route for creating new types of topological excitations. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the quantum Hall regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has so far eluded experimental observation. Here we demonstrate the existence of a novel type of Josephson coupling through a QH region at magnetic fields as high as 2 Tesla. The supercurrent is mediated by states encompassing QH edge channels, which are flowing on opposite sides of the sample. The edges are coupled together by the hybrid electron-hole modes at the interfaces between the QH region and the superconducting contacts. These chiral modes, which share some features with Majorana modes, are formed when electron and hole edge states are mixed by the superconductor.

  20. Environment Flow Assessment with Flow Regime Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, J.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2015-12-01

    To avoid worsen river and estuarine ecosystems cause by overusing water resources, environmental flows conservation is applied to reduce the impact of river environment. Environmental flows refer to water provided within a river, wetland or coastal zone to sustain ecosystems and benefits to human wellbeing. Environment flow assessment is now widely accepted that a naturally variable flow regime, rather than just a minimum low flow. In this study, we propose four methods, experience method, Tenant method, hydraulic method and habitat method to assess the environmental flow of base flow, flush flow and overbank flow with different discharge, frequency and occurrence period. Dahan River has been chosen as a case to demonstrate the assessment mechanism. The alternatives impact analysis of environment and human water used provides a reference for stakeholders when holding an environmental flow consultative meeting.

  1. Alumina strength degradation in the elastic regime

    SciTech Connect

    Furnish, M.D.; Chhabildas, L.C.

    1997-08-01

    Measurements of Kanel et. al. [1991] have suggested that deviatoric stresses in glasses shocked to nearly the Hugoniot Elastic limit (HEL) relax over a time span of microseconds after initial loading. Failure (damage) waves have been inferred on the basis of these measurements using time-resolved manganin normal and transverse stress gauges. Additional experiments on glass by other researchers, using time-resolved gauges, high-speed photography and spall strength determinations have also lead to the same conclusions. In the present study the authors have conducted transmitted-wave experiments on high-quality Coors AD995 alumina shocked to roughly 5 and 7 GPa (just below or at the HEL). The material is subsequently reshocked to just above its elastic limit. Results of these experiments do show some evidence of strength degradation in the elastic regime.

  2. Different spreading regimes of spray-flames

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suard, Sylvain; Haldenwang, Pierre; Nicoli, Colette

    2004-05-01

    We present a minimal model of spray combustion to investigate a flame front propagating through a fuel-lean mixture of fuel vapor, droplets and air. The model relies on a main control parameter, Da, named the Damkoehler number, which allows us to take into account a large variety of fuel sprays. Numerical results reveal, as a function of Da, a wide range of spray-flame structures, including the classical gaseous premixed flame, a specific regime controlled by vaporisation, and a pulsating mode of propagation. The latter appears when the vaporisation is smaller than (or equal to) the reaction time, and it occurs even with a unit Lewis number. To cite this article: S. Suard et al., C. R. Mecanique 332 (2004).

  3. Evolution of the water regime of Phobos

    SciTech Connect

    Fanale, F.P.; Salvail, J.R. )

    1990-12-01

    In the present model of Phobos water regime evolution, a time-dependent solar insolation is influenced by both decreasing solar output over geologic time and the Mars and Phobos cycles of eccentricity and obliquity, which vary over 100,000-1,000,000 year time scales. The results presented address model cases which assume (1) a homogeneous distribution of water ice, and (2) a driving of water ice toward the surface by the internal thermal gradient near the poles. A two-dimensional model is used to compute temperatures, heat and vapor fluxes, and ice removal/deposition rates, for the case of uniform ice distribution throughout Phobos. The results obtained indicate that a substantial amount of vapor is produced within 1 km of the surface. 15 refs.

  4. Denitrification potential under different fertilization regimes is closely coupled with changes in the denitrifying community in a black soil.

    PubMed

    Yin, Chang; Fan, Fenliang; Song, Alin; Cui, Peiyuan; Li, Tingqiang; Liang, Yongchao

    2015-07-01

    Preferable inorganic fertilization over the last decades has led to fertility degradation of black soil in Northeast China. However, how fertilization regimes impact denitrification and its related bacterial community in this soil type is still unclear. Here, taking advantage of a suit of molecular ecological tools in combination of assaying the potential denitrification (DP), we explored the variation of activity, community structure, and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers under four different fertilization regimes, namely no fertilization control (N0M0), organic pig manure (N0M1), inorganic fertilization (N1M0), and combination of inorganic fertilizer and pig manure (N1M1). The results indicated that organic fertilization increased DP, but inorganic fertilization had no impacts. The increase of DP was mirrored by the shift of nirS denitrifiers' community structure but not by that of nirK denitrifiers'. Furthermore, the change of DP coincided with the variation of abundances of both denitrifiers. Shifts of community structure and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers were correlated with the change of soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), C:P, total phosphorus (TP), and available phosphorus (Olsen P). Our results suggest that the change of DP under these four fertilization regimes was closely related to the shift of denitrifying bacteria communities resulting from the variation of properties in the black soil tested.

  5. Denitrification potential under different fertilization regimes is closely coupled with changes in the denitrifying community in a black soil.

    PubMed

    Yin, Chang; Fan, Fenliang; Song, Alin; Cui, Peiyuan; Li, Tingqiang; Liang, Yongchao

    2015-07-01

    Preferable inorganic fertilization over the last decades has led to fertility degradation of black soil in Northeast China. However, how fertilization regimes impact denitrification and its related bacterial community in this soil type is still unclear. Here, taking advantage of a suit of molecular ecological tools in combination of assaying the potential denitrification (DP), we explored the variation of activity, community structure, and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers under four different fertilization regimes, namely no fertilization control (N0M0), organic pig manure (N0M1), inorganic fertilization (N1M0), and combination of inorganic fertilizer and pig manure (N1M1). The results indicated that organic fertilization increased DP, but inorganic fertilization had no impacts. The increase of DP was mirrored by the shift of nirS denitrifiers' community structure but not by that of nirK denitrifiers'. Furthermore, the change of DP coincided with the variation of abundances of both denitrifiers. Shifts of community structure and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers were correlated with the change of soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), C:P, total phosphorus (TP), and available phosphorus (Olsen P). Our results suggest that the change of DP under these four fertilization regimes was closely related to the shift of denitrifying bacteria communities resulting from the variation of properties in the black soil tested. PMID:25715781

  6. Deterministic-random separation in nonstationary regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abboud, D.; Antoni, J.; Sieg-Zieba, S.; Eltabach, M.

    2016-02-01

    In rotating machinery vibration analysis, the synchronous average is perhaps the most widely used technique for extracting periodic components. Periodic components are typically related to gear vibrations, misalignments, unbalances, blade rotations, reciprocating forces, etc. Their separation from other random components is essential in vibration-based diagnosis in order to discriminate useful information from masking noise. However, synchronous averaging theoretically requires the machine to operate under stationary regime (i.e. the related vibration signals are cyclostationary) and is otherwise jeopardized by the presence of amplitude and phase modulations. A first object of this paper is to investigate the nature of the nonstationarity induced by the response of a linear time-invariant system subjected to speed varying excitation. For this purpose, the concept of a cyclo-non-stationary signal is introduced, which extends the class of cyclostationary signals to speed-varying regimes. Next, a "generalized synchronous average'' is designed to extract the deterministic part of a cyclo-non-stationary vibration signal-i.e. the analog of the periodic part of a cyclostationary signal. Two estimators of the GSA have been proposed. The first one returns the synchronous average of the signal at predefined discrete operating speeds. A brief statistical study of it is performed, aiming to provide the user with confidence intervals that reflect the "quality" of the estimator according to the SNR and the estimated speed. The second estimator returns a smoothed version of the former by enforcing continuity over the speed axis. It helps to reconstruct the deterministic component by tracking a specific trajectory dictated by the speed profile (assumed to be known a priori).The proposed method is validated first on synthetic signals and then on actual industrial signals. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on envelope-based diagnosis of bearings in variable

  7. Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mooney, S. D.; Harrison, S. P.; Bartlein, P. J.; Daniau, A.-L.; Stevenson, J.; Brownlie, K. C.; Buckman, S.; Cupper, M.; Luly, J.; Black, M.; Colhoun, E.; D'Costa, D.; Dodson, J.; Haberle, S.; Hope, G. S.; Kershaw, P.; Kenyon, C.; McKenzie, M.; Williams, N.

    2011-01-01

    We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5-14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

  8. Gear-shift mechanism for manual transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Fukuchi, H.

    1986-07-22

    This patent describes a gear-shift mechanism for a manual transmission comprising a housing for the transmission; a movable shaft mounted in place within the housing for both axial and rotary movements and being operatively connected to a manual shift lever to be axially shifted from its neutral position to a forward or reverse position in selecting operation of the manual shift lever and to be rotated at its shifted position in shifting operation of the manual shift lever; a shift-and-select lever fixed to an intermediate portion of the movable shaft; an interlock member rotatably mounted in place on the movable shaft and having a pair of interlock arms located at the opposite sides of the shift-and-select lever; means for restricting rotary movement of the interlock member and permitting axial movement of the same; a pair of resilient means for centering the movable shaft to retain the shift-and-select lever and the interlock member in their neutral positions; and first, second and third shift heads arranged in sequence within the housing.

  9. Reverse shift mechanism for automotive manual transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Inui, M.; Ogawa, S.

    1987-03-03

    A reverse shift mechanism is described for an automotive manual transmission of a type having a reverse idler gear which is movable to selectively complete a reverse gear train, the reverse shift mechanism comprising: a reverse shift arm having a portion disposed adjacent the reverse idler gear and pivotally carried with respect to a transmission casing so that the portion rocks along a direction of axis of the reverse idler gear in response to shifting operation. The portion of the reverse shift arm is provided with a blind hole which is open at a first end toward the reverse idler gear and is closed at a second end away from the reverse idler gear; and a shift arm shoe carried by the portion of the reverse shift arm adjacent the reverse idler gear for pushing the reverse idler gear. The shift arm shoe has an end adapted to engage with a circumferential groove formed in the reverse idler gear and an opposing end shaped to fit in the blind hole of the reverse shift arm; whereby the shift arm shoe is prevented from coming off during assembly by virtue of a vacuum effect created by air confined in the blind hole by fitting engagement between the opposing end and the blind hole, and is held in place after assembly by being clamped between the groove of the reverse idler gear and the blind hole of the reverse shift arm.

  10. A novel phase shifting structured illumination microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Veena; Dubey, Vishesh; Ahmad, Azeem; Singh, Gyanendra; Mehta, D. S.

    2016-03-01

    This paper describes a new and novel phase shifting technique for qualitative as well as quantitative measurement in microscopy. We have developed a phase shifting device which is robust, inexpensive and involves no mechanical movement. In this method, phase shifting is implemented using LED array, beam splitters and defocused projection of Ronchi grating. The light from the LEDs are made incident on the beam splitters at spatially different locations. Due to variation in the geometrical distances of LEDs from the Ronchi grating and by sequentially illuminating the grating by switching on one LED at a time the phase shifted grating patterns are generated. The phase shifted structured patterns are projected onto the sample using microscopic objective lens. The phase shifted deformed patterns are recorded by a CCD camera. The initial alignment of the setup involves a simple procedure for the calibration for equal fringe width and intensity such that the phase shifted fringes are at equal phase difference. Three frame phase shifting algorithm is employed for the reconstruction of the phase map. The method described here is fully automated so that the phase shifted images are recorded just by switching of LEDs and has been used for the shape measurement of microscopic industrial objects. The analysis of the phase shifted images provides qualitative as well as quantitative information about the sample. Thus, the method is simple, robust and low cost compared to PZT devices commonly employed for phase shifting.

  11. Dynamics and computation in functional shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namikawa, Jun; Hashimoto, Takashi

    2004-07-01

    We introduce a new type of shift dynamics as an extended model of symbolic dynamics, and investigate the characteristics of shift spaces from the viewpoints of both dynamics and computation. This shift dynamics is called a functional shift, which is defined by a set of bi-infinite sequences of some functions on a set of symbols. To analyse the complexity of functional shifts, we measure them in terms of topological entropy, and locate their languages in the Chomsky hierarchy. Through this study, we argue that considering functional shifts from the viewpoints of both dynamics and computation gives us opposite results about the complexity of systems. We also describe a new class of shift spaces whose languages are not recursively enumerable.

  12. Softening and Hardening of a Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) Oscillator in a Nonlinear Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Sarah; Edmonds, Terrence

    Micro-electro-mechanical systems or MEMS are used in a variety of today's technology and can be modeled using equations for nonlinear damped harmonic oscillators. Mathematical expressions have been formulated to determine resonance frequency shifts as a result of hardening and softening effects in MEMS devices. In this work we experimentally test the previous theoretical analysis of MEMS resonance frequency shifts in the nonlinear regime. Devices were put under low pressure at room temperature and swept through a range of frequencies with varying AC and DC excitation voltages to detect shifts in the resonant frequency. The MEMS device studied in this work exhibits a dominating spring softening effect due to the device's physical make-up. The softening effect becomes very dominant as the AC excitation is increased and the frequency shift of the resonance peak becomes quite significant at these larger excitations. Hardening effects are heavily dependent on mechanical factors that make up the MEMS devices. But they are not present in these MEMS devices. I will present our results along with the theoretical analysis of the Duffing oscillator model. This work was supported by NSF grant DMR-1461019 (REU) and DMR-1205891 (YL).

  13. Bias voltage dependence of the electron spin depolarization in quantum wires in the quantum Hall regime detected by the resistively detected NMR

    SciTech Connect

    Chida, K.; Yamauchi, Y.; Arakawa, T.; Kobayashi, K.; Ono, T.; Hashisaka, M.; Nakamura, S.; Machida, T.

    2013-12-04

    We performed the resistively-detected nuclear magnetic resonance (RDNMR) to study the electron spin polarization in the non-equilibrium quantum Hall regime. By measuring the Knight shift, we derive source-drain bias voltage dependence of the electron spin polarization in quantum wires. The electron spin polarization shows minimum value around the threshold voltage of the dynamic nuclear polarization.

  14. The temporal dimension of regime shifts: How long can ecosystems operate beyond critical thresholds before transitions become irreversible?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background/Question/Methods: Ecosystem thresholds are often identified by observing or inducing slow changes in different driver variables and investigating changes in the asymptotic state of the system, such as the response of lakes to nutrient loading or biome responses to climate change. Yet ma...

  15. Using decision lists to construct interpretable and parsimonious treatment regimes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yichi; Laber, Eric B; Tsiatis, Anastasios; Davidian, Marie

    2015-12-01

    A treatment regime formalizes personalized medicine as a function from individual patient characteristics to a recommended treatment. A high-quality treatment regime can improve patient outcomes while reducing cost, resource consumption, and treatment burden. Thus, there is tremendous interest in estimating treatment regimes from observational and randomized studies. However, the development of treatment regimes for application in clinical practice requires the long-term, joint effort of statisticians and clinical scientists. In this collaborative process, the statistician must integrate clinical science into the statistical models underlying a treatment regime and the clinician must scrutinize the estimated treatment regime for scientific validity. To facilitate meaningful information exchange, it is important that estimated treatment regimes be interpretable in a subject-matter context. We propose a simple, yet flexible class of treatment regimes whose members are representable as a short list of if-then statements. Regimes in this class are immediately interpretable and are therefore an appealing choice for broad application in practice. We derive a robust estimator of the optimal regime within this class and demonstrate its finite sample performance using simulation experiments. The proposed method is illustrated with data from two clinical trials. PMID:26193819

  16. Using Decision Lists to Construct Interpretable and Parsimonious Treatment Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yichi; Laber, Eric B.; Tsiatis, Anastasios; Davidian, Marie

    2015-01-01

    Summary A treatment regime formalizes personalized medicine as a function from individual patient characteristics to a recommended treatment. A high-quality treatment regime can improve patient outcomes while reducing cost, resource consumption, and treatment burden. Thus, there is tremendous interest in estimating treatment regimes from observational and randomized studies. However, the development of treatment regimes for application in clinical practice requires the long-term, joint effort of statisticians and clinical scientists. In this collaborative process, the statistician must integrate clinical science into the statistical models underlying a treatment regime and the clinician must scrutinize the estimated treatment regime for scientific validity. To facilitate meaningful information exchange, it is important that estimated treatment regimes be interpretable in a subject-matter context. We propose a simple, yet flexible class of treatment regimes whose members are representable as a short list of if-then statements. Regimes in this class are immediately interpretable and are therefore an appealing choice for broad application in practice. We derive a robust estimator of the optimal regime within this class and demonstrate its finite sample performance using simulation experiments. The proposed method is illustrated with data from two clinical trials. PMID:26193819

  17. Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

  18. Ecohydrologic relationships of two juniper woodlands with different precipitation regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochoa, C. G.; Guldan, S. J.; Deboodt, T.; Fernald, A.; Ray, G.

    2015-12-01

    The significant expansion of juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodlands throughout the western U.S. during the last two centuries has disrupted important ecological functions and hydrologic processes. The relationships between water and vegetation distribution are highly impacted by the ongoing shift from shrub steppe and grassland to woodland-dominated landscapes. We investigated vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes occurring in two distinct juniper landscapes with different precipitation regimes in the Intermountain West region: A winter snow-dominated (Oregon) and a summer rain-dominated with some winter precipitation (New Mexico) landscape. Results from the Oregon site showed marginal differences (1-2%) in soil moisture in treated vs untreated watersheds throughout the dry and wet seasons. In general, soil moisture was greater in the treated watershed in both seasons. Canopy cover affected soil moisture over time. Perennial grass cover was positively correlated with changes in soil moisture, whereas juniper cover was negatively correlated with changes in soil moisture. Shallow groundwater response observed in upland and valley monitoring wells indicate there are temporary hydrologic connections between upland and valley locations during the winter precipitation season. Results from the New Mexico site provided valuable information regarding timing and intensity of monsoon-driven precipitation and the rainfall threshold (5 mm/15 min) that triggers runoff. Long-term vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes were evaluated based on pre- and post-juniper removal (70%) in three watersheds. In general, less runoff and greater forage response was observed in the treated watersheds. During rainfall events, soil moisture was less under juniper canopy compared with inter-canopy; this difference in soil moisture was intensified during high intensity, short duration rainstorms in the summer months. We found that winter snow precipitation helped recharge soil moisture

  19. Shifting boundaries in professional care.

    PubMed Central

    Hopkins, A; Solomon, J; Abelson, J

    1996-01-01

    The nature of the work undertaken by different health professionals and inter-professional boundaries are constantly shifting. The greater knowledge of users of health care, and the increasing technical and organizational complexity of modern medicine, have partly eroded the control of health professionals over the substance of their work. The definition of a field of work as lying within the province of any one profession is culturally rather than scientifically determined. It is evident that care of good quality should be delivered at the lowest possible cost. This might include delivery of care by a less trained person than heretofore, or by someone with limited but focused training. Sharing of skills is a more sensible subject for discussion than transfer of tasks. We review a number of studies which show the effectiveness of inter-professional substitution in various care settings, and also the effectiveness of substitution by those other than health professionals. The views of users of health services on inter-professional substitution need to be considered. Health professionals and others need to work together to devise innovative ways of delivering effective health care. The legal issues need clarification. PMID:8774532

  20. Shifting boundaries in professional care.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, A; Solomon, J; Abelson, J

    1996-07-01

    The nature of the work undertaken by different health professionals and inter-professional boundaries are constantly shifting. The greater knowledge of users of health care, and the increasing technical and organizational complexity of modern medicine, have partly eroded the control of health professionals over the substance of their work. The definition of a field of work as lying within the province of any one profession is culturally rather than scientifically determined. It is evident that care of good quality should be delivered at the lowest possible cost. This might include delivery of care by a less trained person than heretofore, or by someone with limited but focused training. Sharing of skills is a more sensible subject for discussion than transfer of tasks. We review a number of studies which show the effectiveness of inter-professional substitution in various care settings, and also the effectiveness of substitution by those other than health professionals. The views of users of health services on inter-professional substitution need to be considered. Health professionals and others need to work together to devise innovative ways of delivering effective health care. The legal issues need clarification.