Improving Power Density of Free-Piston Stirling Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.; Prahl, Joseph M.; Loparo, Kenneth A.

2016-01-01

Analyses and experiments demonstrate the potential benefits of optimizing piston and displacer motion in a free-piston Stirling Engine. Isothermal analysis shows the theoretical limits of power density improvement due to ideal motion in ideal Stirling engines. More realistic models based on nodal analysis show that ideal piston and displacer waveforms are not optimal, often producing less power than engines that use sinusoidal piston and displacer motion. Constrained optimization using nodal analysis predicts that Stirling engine power density can be increased by as much as 58 percent using optimized higher harmonic piston and displacer motion. An experiment is conducted in which an engine designed for sinusoidal motion is forced to operate with both second and third harmonics, resulting in a piston power increase of as much as 14 percent. Analytical predictions are compared to experimental data and show close agreement with indirect thermodynamic power calculations, but poor agreement with direct electrical power measurements.

Improving Power Density of Free-Piston Stirling Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.; Prahl, Joseph; Loparo, Kenneth

2016-01-01

Analyses and experiments demonstrate the potential benefits of optimizing piston and displacer motion in a free piston Stirling Engine. Isothermal analysis shows the theoretical limits of power density improvement due to ideal motion in ideal Stirling engines. More realistic models based on nodal analysis show that ideal piston and displacer waveforms are not optimal, often producing less power than engines that use sinusoidal piston and displacer motion. Constrained optimization using nodal analysis predicts that Stirling engine power density can be increased by as much as 58 using optimized higher harmonic piston and displacer motion. An experiment is conducted in which an engine designed for sinusoidal motion is forced to operate with both second and third harmonics, resulting in a maximum piston power increase of 14. Analytical predictions are compared to experimental data showing close agreement with indirect thermodynamic power calculations, but poor agreement with direct electrical power measurements.

Improving Free-Piston Stirling Engine Power Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.

2016-01-01

Analyses and experiments demonstrate the potential benefits of optimizing piston and displacer motion in a free piston Stirling Engine. Isothermal analysis shows the theoretical limits of power density improvement due to ideal motion in ideal Stirling engines. More realistic models based on nodal analysis show that ideal piston and displacer waveforms are not optimal, often producing less power than engines that use sinusoidal piston and displacer motion. Constrained optimization using nodal analysis predicts that Stirling engine power density can be increased by as much as 58% using optimized higher harmonic piston and displacer motion. An experiment is conducted in which an engine designed for sinusoidal motion is forced to operate with both second and third harmonics, resulting in a maximum piston power increase of 14%. Analytical predictions are compared to experimental data showing close agreement with indirect thermodynamic power calculations, but poor agreement with direct electrical power measurements.

Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

DOE PAGES

Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; ...

2016-10-03

Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Taskmore » is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.« less

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chmielewski, A. B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

Increased prognostic accuracy of TBI when a brain electrical activity biomarker is added to loss of consciousness (LOC).

PubMed

Hack, Dallas; Huff, J Stephen; Curley, Kenneth; Naunheim, Roseanne; Ghosh Dastidar, Samanwoy; Prichep, Leslie S

2017-07-01

Extremely high accuracy for predicting CT+ traumatic brain injury (TBI) using a quantitative EEG (QEEG) based multivariate classification algorithm was demonstrated in an independent validation trial, in Emergency Department (ED) patients, using an easy to use handheld device. This study compares the predictive power using that algorithm (which includes LOC and amnesia), to the predictive power of LOC alone or LOC plus traumatic amnesia. ED patients 18-85years presenting within 72h of closed head injury, with GSC 12-15, were study candidates. 680 patients with known absence or presence of LOC were enrolled (145 CT+ and 535 CT- patients). 5-10min of eyes closed EEG was acquired using the Ahead 300 handheld device, from frontal and frontotemporal regions. The same classification algorithm methodology was used for both the EEG based and the LOC based algorithms. Predictive power was evaluated using area under the ROC curve (AUC) and odds ratios. The QEEG based classification algorithm demonstrated significant improvement in predictive power compared with LOC alone, both in improved AUC (83% improvement) and odds ratio (increase from 4.65 to 16.22). Adding RGA and/or PTA to LOC was not improved over LOC alone. Rapid triage of TBI relies on strong initial predictors. Addition of an electrophysiological based marker was shown to outperform report of LOC alone or LOC plus amnesia, in determining risk of an intracranial bleed. In addition, ease of use at point-of-care, non-invasive, and rapid result using such technology suggests significant value added to standard clinical prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Complete Procedure for Predicting and Improving the Performance of HAWT's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abadi, Ali; Ertunç, Özgür; Sittig, Florian; Delgado, Antonio

2014-06-01

A complete procedure for predicting and improving the performance of the horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) has been developed. The first process is predicting the power extracted by the turbine and the derived rotor torque, which should be identical to that of the drive unit. The BEM method and a developed post-stall treatment for resolving stall-regulated HAWT is incorporated in the prediction. For that, a modified stall-regulated prediction model, which can predict the HAWT performance over the operating range of oncoming wind velocity, is derived from existing models. The model involves radius and chord, which has made it more general in applications for predicting the performance of different scales and rotor shapes of HAWTs. The second process is modifying the rotor shape by an optimization process, which can be applied to any existing HAWT, to improve its performance. A gradient- based optimization is used for adjusting the chord and twist angle distribution of the rotor blade to increase the extraction of the power while keeping the drive torque constant, thus the same drive unit can be kept. The final process is testing the modified turbine to predict its enhanced performance. The procedure is applied to NREL phase-VI 10kW as a baseline turbine. The study has proven the applicability of the developed model in predicting the performance of the baseline as well as the optimized turbine. In addition, the optimization method has shown that the power coefficient can be increased while keeping same design rotational speed.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

PubMed

Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

PubMed Central

Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.

Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Taskmore » is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.« less

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intelligent Approaches in Improving In-vehicle Network Architecture and Minimizing Power Consumption in Combat Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE INTELLIGENT APPROACHES IN IMPROVING IN-VEHICLE NETWORK ARCHITECTURE AND MINIMIZING POWER CONSUMPTION IN COMBAT VEHICLES 5a... 4 1.3 Organization...32 CHAPTER 4 – SOFTWARE RELIABILITY PREDICTION FOR COMBAT VEHICLES . 33 4.1 Introduction

Research on the Wire Network Signal Prediction Based on the Improved NNARX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zipeng; Fan, Tao; Wang, Shuqing

It is difficult to obtain accurately the wire net signal of power system's high voltage power transmission lines in the process of monitoring and repairing. In order to solve this problem, the signal measured in remote substation or laboratory is employed to make multipoint prediction to gain the needed data. But, the obtained power grid frequency signal is delay. In order to solve the problem, an improved NNARX network which can predict frequency signal based on multi-point data collected by remote substation PMU is describes in this paper. As the error curved surface of the NNARX network is more complicated, this paper uses L-M algorithm to train the network. The result of the simulation shows that the NNARX network has preferable predication performance which provides accurate real time data for field testing and maintenance.

Department of Defense Space Science and Technology Strategy 2015

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

solar cells at 34% efficiency enabling higher power spacecraft capability. These solar cells developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL...Reduce size, weight, power , cost, and improve thermal management for SATCOM terminals  Support intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR...Improve understanding and awareness of the Earth-to-Sun environment  Improve space environment forecast capabilities and tools to predict operational

NASA Lewis Stirling SPRE testing and analysis with reduced number of cooler tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Wayne A.; Cairelli, James E.; Swec, Diane M.; Doeberling, Thomas J.; Lakatos, Thomas F.; Madi, Frank J.

1992-01-01

Free-piston Stirling power converters are candidates for high capacity space power applications. The Space Power Research Engine (SPRE), a free-piston Stirling engine coupled with a linear alternator, is being tested at the NASA Lewis Research Center in support of the Civil Space Technology Initiative. The SPRE is used as a test bed for evaluating converter modifications which have the potential to improve the converter performance and for validating computer code predictions. Reducing the number of cooler tubes on the SPRE has been identified as a modification with the potential to significantly improve power and efficiency. Experimental tests designed to investigate the effects of reducing the number of cooler tubes on converter power, efficiency and dynamics are described. Presented are test results from the converter operating with a reduced number of cooler tubes and comparisons between this data and both baseline test data and computer code predictions.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

High Resolution Mesoscale Weather Data Improvement to Spatial Effects for Dose-Rate Contour Plot Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

time. This is a very powerful tool in determining fine spatial resolution , as boundary conditions are not only updated at every timestep, but the ...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT PREDICTIONS THESIS Christopher P...11 1 HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT

Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.

A new framework to increase the efficiency of large-scale solar power plants.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alimohammadi, Shahrouz; Kleissl, Jan P.

2015-11-01

A new framework to estimate the spatio-temporal behavior of solar power is introduced, which predicts the statistical behavior of power output at utility scale Photo-Voltaic (PV) power plants. The framework is based on spatio-temporal Gaussian Processes Regression (Kriging) models, which incorporates satellite data with the UCSD version of the Weather and Research Forecasting model. This framework is designed to improve the efficiency of the large-scale solar power plants. The results are also validated from measurements of the local pyranometer sensors, and some improvements in different scenarios are observed. Solar energy.

Analyses of the most influential factors for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milovančević, Miloš; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Anđelković, Boban

2017-01-01

Vibration-based structural health monitoring is widely recognized as an attractive strategy for early damage detection in civil structures. Vibration monitoring and prediction is important for any system since it can save many unpredictable behaviors of the system. If the vibration monitoring is properly managed, that can ensure economic and safe operations. Potentials for further improvement of vibration monitoring lie in the improvement of current control strategies. One of the options is the introduction of model predictive control. Multistep ahead predictive models of vibration are a starting point for creating a successful model predictive strategy. For the purpose of this article, predictive models of are created for vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills. The models were developed using the novel method based on ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system). The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of ANFIS for selecting the most relevant variables for predictive models of vibration monitoring of pellet mills power transmission. The vibration data are collected by PIC (Programmable Interface Controller) microcontrollers. The goal of the predictive vibration monitoring of planetary power transmissions in pellet mills is to indicate deterioration in the vibration of the power transmissions before the actual failure occurs. The ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented in order to detect the predominant variables affecting the prediction of vibration monitoring. It was also used to select the minimal input subset of variables from the initial set of input variables - current and lagged variables (up to 11 steps) of vibration. The obtained results could be used for simplification of predictive methods so as to avoid multiple input variables. It was preferable to used models with less inputs because of overfitting between training and testing data. While the obtained results are promising, further work is required in order to get results that could be directly applied in practice.

Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangler, J.; Smith, B.; Kelley, N.; Jager, D.

1992-02-01

Measured and predicted rotor performance for the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) advanced wind turbine blades were compared to assess the accuracy of predictions and to identify the sources of error affecting both predictions and measurements. An awareness of these sources of error contributes to improved prediction and measurement methods that will ultimately benefit future rotor design efforts. Propeller/vane anemometers were found to underestimate the wind speed in turbulent environments such as the San Gorgonio Pass wind farm area. Using sonic or cup anemometers, good agreement was achieved between predicted and measured power output for wind speeds up to 8 m/sec. At higher wind speeds an optimistic predicted power output and the occurrence of peak power at wind speeds lower than measurements resulted from the omission of turbulence and yaw error. In addition, accurate two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data prior to stall and a post stall airfoil data synthesization method that reflects three-dimensional (3-D) effects were found to be essential for accurate performance prediction.

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

A variable capacitance based modeling and power capability predicting method for ultracapacitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chang; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

Methods of accurate modeling and power capability predicting for ultracapacitors are of great significance in management and application of lithium-ion battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system. To overcome the simulation error coming from constant capacitance model, an improved ultracapacitor model based on variable capacitance is proposed, where the main capacitance varies with voltage according to a piecewise linear function. A novel state-of-charge calculation approach is developed accordingly. After that, a multi-constraint power capability prediction is developed for ultracapacitor, in which a Kalman-filter-based state observer is designed for tracking ultracapacitor's real-time behavior. Finally, experimental results verify the proposed methods. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by terminal voltage simulating results under different temperatures, and the effectiveness of the designed observer is proved by various test conditions. Additionally, the power capability prediction results of different time scales and temperatures are compared, to study their effects on ultracapacitor's power capability.

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

Short-term load forecasting of power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaobin

2017-05-01

In order to ensure the scientific nature of optimization about power system, it is necessary to improve the load forecasting accuracy. Power system load forecasting is based on accurate statistical data and survey data, starting from the history and current situation of electricity consumption, with a scientific method to predict the future development trend of power load and change the law of science. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, which is of great significance to unit combination, economic dispatch and safety check. Therefore, the load forecasting of the power system is explained in detail in this paper. First, we use the data from 2012 to 2014 to establish the partial least squares model to regression analysis the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and each meteorological factor, and select the highest peak by observing the regression coefficient histogram Day maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature as the meteorological factors to improve the accuracy of load forecasting indicators. Secondly, in the case of uncertain climate impact, we use the time series model to predict the load data for 2015, respectively, the 2009-2014 load data were sorted out, through the previous six years of the data to forecast the data for this time in 2015. The criterion for the accuracy of the prediction is the average of the standard deviations for the prediction results and average load for the previous six years. Finally, considering the climate effect, we use the BP neural network model to predict the data in 2015, and optimize the forecast results on the basis of the time series model.

Reply to comment by Claude Michel on "A general power equation for predicting bed load transport rates in gravel bed rivers"

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Barry; John M. Buffington; John G. King

2005-01-01

We thank Michel [2005] for the opportunity to improve our bed load transport equation [Barry et al., 2004, equation (6)] and to resolve the dimensional complexity that he identified. However, we do not believe that the alternative bed load transport equation proposed by Michel [2005] provides either the mechanistic insight or predictive power of our transport equation...

An extended fatty liver index to predict non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Kantartzis, K; Rettig, I; Staiger, H; Machann, J; Schick, F; Scheja, L; Gastaldelli, A; Bugianesi, E; Peter, A; Schulze, M B; Fritsche, A; Häring, H-U; Stefan, N

2017-06-01

In clinical practice, there is a strong interest in non-invasive markers of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our hypothesis was that the fold-change in plasma triglycerides (TG) during a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test (fold-change TG OGTT ) in concert with blood glucose and lipid parameters, and the rs738409 C>G single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in PNPLA3 might improve the power of the widely used fatty liver index (FLI) to predict NAFLD. The liver fat content of 330 subjects was quantified by 1 H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Blood parameters were measured during fasting and after a 2-h OGTT. A subgroup of 213 subjects underwent these measurements before and after 9 months of a lifestyle intervention. The fold-change TG OGTT was closely associated with liver fat content (r=0.51, P<0.0001), but had less power to predict NAFLD (AUROC=0.75) than the FLI (AUROC=0.79). Not only was the fold-change TG OGTT independently associated with liver fat content and NAFLD, but so also were the 2-h blood glucose level and rs738409 C>G SNP in PNPLA3. In fact, a novel index (extended FLI) generated from these and the usual FLI parameters considerably increased its power to predict NAFLD (AUROC=0.79-0.86). The extended FLI also increased the power to predict changes in liver fat content with a lifestyle intervention (n=213; standardized beta coefficient: 0.23-0.29). This study has provided novel data confirming that the OGTT-derived fold-change TG OGTT and 2-h glucose level, together with the rs738409 C>G SNP in PNPLA3, allow calculation of an extended FLI that considerably improves its power to predict NAFLD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Beatquency domain and machine learning improve prediction of cardiovascular death after acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Liu, Yun; Scirica, Benjamin M; Stultz, Collin M; Guttag, John V

2016-10-06

Frequency domain measures of heart rate variability (HRV) are associated with adverse events after a myocardial infarction. However, patterns in the traditional frequency domain (measured in Hz, or cycles per second) may capture different cardiac phenomena at different heart rates. An alternative is to consider frequency with respect to heartbeats, or beatquency. We compared the use of frequency and beatquency domains to predict patient risk after an acute coronary syndrome. We then determined whether machine learning could further improve the predictive performance. We first evaluated the use of pre-defined frequency and beatquency bands in a clinical trial dataset (N = 2302) for the HRV risk measure LF/HF (the ratio of low frequency to high frequency power). Relative to frequency, beatquency improved the ability of LF/HF to predict cardiovascular death within one year (Area Under the Curve, or AUC, of 0.730 vs. 0.704, p < 0.001). Next, we used machine learning to learn frequency and beatquency bands with optimal predictive power, which further improved the AUC for beatquency to 0.753 (p < 0.001), but not for frequency. Results in additional validation datasets (N = 2255 and N = 765) were similar. Our results suggest that beatquency and machine learning provide valuable tools in physiological studies of HRV.

Does Rational Selection of Training and Test Sets Improve the Outcome of QSAR Modeling?

EPA Science Inventory

Prior to using a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model for external predictions, its predictive power should be established and validated. In the absence of a true external dataset, the best way to validate the predictive ability of a model is to perform its s...

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bulaevskaya, V.; Wharton, S.; Irons, Z.

2015-02-09

Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the resultsmore » to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.« less

An objective function exploiting suboptimal solutions in metabolic networks

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Flux Balance Analysis is a theoretically elegant, computationally efficient, genome-scale approach to predicting biochemical reaction fluxes. Yet FBA models exhibit persistent mathematical degeneracy that generally limits their predictive power. Results We propose a novel objective function for cellular metabolism that accounts for and exploits degeneracy in the metabolic network to improve flux predictions. In our model, regulation drives metabolism toward a region of flux space that allows nearly optimal growth. Metabolic mutants deviate minimally from this region, a function represented mathematically as a convex cone. Near-optimal flux configurations within this region are considered equally plausible and not subject to further optimizing regulation. Consistent with relaxed regulation near optimality, we find that the size of the near-optimal region predicts flux variability under experimental perturbation. Conclusion Accounting for suboptimal solutions can improve the predictive power of metabolic FBA models. Because fluctuations of enzyme and metabolite levels are inevitable, tolerance for suboptimality may support a functionally robust metabolic network. PMID:24088221

Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan

2018-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.

Intelligent Prediction of Fan Rotation Stall in Power Plants Based on Pressure Sensor Data Measured In-Situ

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaogang; Wang, Songling; Liu, Jinlian; Liu, Xinyu

2014-01-01

Blower and exhaust fans consume over 30% of electricity in a thermal power plant, and faults of these fans due to rotation stalls are one of the most frequent reasons for power plant outage failures. To accurately predict the occurrence of fan rotation stalls, we propose a support vector regression machine (SVRM) model that predicts the fan internal pressures during operation, leaving ample time for rotation stall detection. We train the SVRM model using experimental data samples, and perform pressure data prediction using the trained SVRM model. To prove the feasibility of using the SVRM model for rotation stall prediction, we further process the predicted pressure data via wavelet-transform-based stall detection. By comparison of the detection results from the predicted and measured pressure data, we demonstrate that the SVRM model can accurately predict the fan pressure and guarantee reliable stall detection with a time advance of up to 0.0625 s. This superior pressure data prediction capability leaves significant time for effective control and prevention of fan rotation stall faults. This model has great potential for use in intelligent fan systems with stall prevention capability, which will ensure safe operation and improve the energy efficiency of power plants. PMID:24854057

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Predicted impact of thermal power generation emission control measures in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on air pollution over Beijing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Liqiang; Li, Pengfei; Yu, Shaocai; Mehmood, Khalid; Li, Zhen; Chang, Shucheng; Liu, Weiping; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Flagan, Richard C; Seinfeld, John H

2018-01-17

Widespread economic growth in China has led to increasing episodes of severe air pollution, especially in major urban areas. Thermal power plants represent a particularly important class of emissions. Here we present an evaluation of the predicted effectiveness of a series of recently proposed thermal power plant emission controls in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region on air quality over Beijing using the Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ) atmospheric chemical transport model to predict CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 levels. A baseline simulation of the hypothetical removal of all thermal power plants in the BTH region is predicted to lead to 38%, 23%, 23%, 24%, and 24% reductions in current annual mean levels of CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 in Beijing, respectively. Similar percentage reductions are predicted in the major cities in the BTH region. Simulations of the air quality impact of six proposed thermal power plant emission reduction strategies over the BTH region provide an estimate of the potential improvement in air quality in the Beijing metropolitan area, as a function of the time of year.

Method for Prediction of the Power Output from Photovoltaic Power Plant under Actual Operating Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obukhov, S. G.; Plotnikov, I. A.; Surzhikova, O. A.; Savkin, K. D.

2017-04-01

Solar photovoltaic technology is one of the most rapidly growing renewable sources of electricity that has practical application in various fields of human activity due to its high availability, huge potential and environmental compatibility. The original simulation model of the photovoltaic power plant has been developed to simulate and investigate the plant operating modes under actual operating conditions. The proposed model considers the impact of the external climatic factors on the solar panel energy characteristics that improves accuracy in the power output prediction. The data obtained through the photovoltaic power plant operation simulation enable a well-reasoned choice of the required capacity for storage devices and determination of the rational algorithms to control the energy complex.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R2 statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. RESULTS—Administrative data–based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. CONCLUSIONS—Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed. PMID:18945927

Power law tails in phylogenetic systems.

PubMed

Qin, Chongli; Colwell, Lucy J

2018-01-23

Covariance analysis of protein sequence alignments uses coevolving pairs of sequence positions to predict features of protein structure and function. However, current methods ignore the phylogenetic relationships between sequences, potentially corrupting the identification of covarying positions. Here, we use random matrix theory to demonstrate the existence of a power law tail that distinguishes the spectrum of covariance caused by phylogeny from that caused by structural interactions. The power law is essentially independent of the phylogenetic tree topology, depending on just two parameters-the sequence length and the average branch length. We demonstrate that these power law tails are ubiquitous in the large protein sequence alignments used to predict contacts in 3D structure, as predicted by our theory. This suggests that to decouple phylogenetic effects from the interactions between sequence distal sites that control biological function, it is necessary to remove or down-weight the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix with largest eigenvalues. We confirm that truncating these eigenvectors improves contact prediction.

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE PAGES

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara; ...

2017-06-16

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

An analytical method to predict efficiency of aircraft gearboxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, N. E.; Loewenthal, S. H.; Black, J. D.

1984-01-01

A spur gear efficiency prediction method previously developed by the authors was extended to include power loss of planetary gearsets. A friction coefficient model was developed for MIL-L-7808 oil based on disc machine data. This combined with the recent capability of predicting losses in spur gears of nonstandard proportions allows the calculation of power loss for complete aircraft gearboxes that utilize spur gears. The method was applied to the T56/501 turboprop gearbox and compared with measured test data. Bearing losses were calculated with large scale computer programs. Breakdowns of the gearbox losses point out areas for possible improvement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities With Predicted Absolute Incomes Rather Than Wealth Quintiles: A Comparative Assessment Using Child Stunting Data From National Surveys.

PubMed

Fink, Günther; Victora, Cesar G; Harttgen, Kenneth; Vollmer, Sebastian; Vidaletti, Luís Paulo; Barros, Aluisio J D

2017-04-01

To compare the predictive power of synthetic absolute income measures with that of asset-based wealth quintiles in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using child stunting as an outcome. We pooled data from 239 nationally representative household surveys from LMICs and computed absolute incomes in US dollars based on households' asset rank as well as data on national consumption and inequality levels. We used multivariable regression models to compare the predictive power of the created income measure with the predictive power of existing asset indicator measures. In cross-country analysis, log absolute income predicted 54.5% of stunting variation observed, compared with 20% of variation explained by wealth quintiles. For within-survey analysis, we also found absolute income gaps to be predictive of the gaps between stunting in the wealthiest and poorest households (P < .001). Our results suggest that absolute income levels can greatly improve the prediction of stunting levels across and within countries over time, compared with models that rely solely on relative wealth quintiles.

Prediction of silicon oxynitride plasma etching using a generalized regression neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Lee, Byung Teak

2005-08-01

A prediction model of silicon oxynitride (SiON) etching was constructed using a neural network. Model prediction performance was improved by means of genetic algorithm. The etching was conducted in a C2F6 inductively coupled plasma. A 24 full factorial experiment was employed to systematically characterize parameter effects on SiON etching. The process parameters include radio frequency source power, bias power, pressure, and C2F6 flow rate. To test the appropriateness of the trained model, additional 16 experiments were conducted. For comparison, four types of statistical regression models were built. Compared to the best regression model, the optimized neural network model demonstrated an improvement of about 52%. The optimized model was used to infer etch mechanisms as a function of parameters. The pressure effect was noticeably large only as relatively large ion bombardment was maintained in the process chamber. Ion-bombardment-activated polymer deposition played the most significant role in interpreting the complex effect of bias power or C2F6 flow rate. Moreover, [CF2] was expected to be the predominant precursor to polymer deposition.

Prediction of line failure fault based on weighted fuzzy dynamic clustering and improved relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xiaocheng; Che, Renfei; Gao, Shi; He, Juntao

2018-04-01

With the advent of large data age, power system research has entered a new stage. At present, the main application of large data in the power system is the early warning analysis of the power equipment, that is, by collecting the relevant historical fault data information, the system security is improved by predicting the early warning and failure rate of different kinds of equipment under certain relational factors. In this paper, a method of line failure rate warning is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy dynamic clustering is carried out based on the collected historical information. Considering the imbalance between the attributes, the coefficient of variation is given to the corresponding weights. And then use the weighted fuzzy clustering to deal with the data more effectively. Then, by analyzing the basic idea and basic properties of the relational analysis model theory, the gray relational model is improved by combining the slope and the Deng model. And the incremental composition and composition of the two sequences are also considered to the gray relational model to obtain the gray relational degree between the various samples. The failure rate is predicted according to the principle of weighting. Finally, the concrete process is expounded by an example, and the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

Different slopes for different folks: alpha and delta EEG power predict subsequent video game learning rate and improvements in cognitive control tasks.

PubMed

Mathewson, Kyle E; Basak, Chandramallika; Maclin, Edward L; Low, Kathy A; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele

2012-12-01

We hypothesized that control processes, as measured using electrophysiological (EEG) variables, influence the rate of learning of complex tasks. Specifically, we measured alpha power, event-related spectral perturbations (ERSPs), and event-related brain potentials during early training of the Space Fortress task, and correlated these measures with subsequent learning rate and performance in transfer tasks. Once initial score was partialled out, the best predictors were frontal alpha power and alpha and delta ERSPs, but not P300. By combining these predictors, we could explain about 50% of the learning rate variance and 10%-20% of the variance in transfer to other tasks using only pretraining EEG measures. Thus, control processes, as indexed by alpha and delta EEG oscillations, can predict learning and skill improvements. The results are of potential use to optimize training regimes. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Improve regional distribution and source apportionment of PM2.5 trace elements in China using inventory-observation constrained emission factors.

PubMed

Ying, Qi; Feng, Miao; Song, Danlin; Wu, Li; Hu, Jianlin; Zhang, Hongliang; Kleeman, Michael J; Li, Xinghua

2018-05-15

Contributions to 15 trace elements in airborne particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5μm (PM 2.5 ) in China from five major source sectors (industrial sources, residential sources, transportation, power generation and windblown dust) were determined using a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Using emission factors in the composite speciation profiles from US EPA's SPECIATE database for the five sources leads to relatively poor model performance at an urban site in Beijing. Improved predictions of the trace elements are obtained by using adjusted emission factors derived from a robust multilinear regression of the CMAQ predicted primary source contributions and observation at the urban site. Good correlations between predictions and observations are obtained for most elements studied with R>0.5, except for crustal elements Al, Si and Ca, particularly in spring. Predicted annual and seasonal average concentrations of Mn, Fe, Zn and Pb in Nanjing and Chengdu are also consistently improved using the adjusted emission factors. Annual average concentration of Fe is as high as 2.0μgm -3 with large contributions from power generation and transportation. Annual average concentration of Pb reaches 300-500ngm -3 in vast areas, mainly from residential activities, transportation and power generation. The impact of high concentrations of Fe on secondary sulfate formation and Pb on human health should be evaluated carefully in future studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of cold and heat patterns using anthropometric measures based on machine learning.

PubMed

Lee, Bum Ju; Lee, Jae Chul; Nam, Jiho; Kim, Jong Yeol

2018-01-01

To examine the association of body shape with cold and heat patterns, to determine which anthropometric measure is the best indicator for discriminating between the two patterns, and to investigate whether using a combination of measures can improve the predictive power to diagnose these patterns. Based on a total of 4,859 subjects (3,000 women and 1,859 men), statistical analyses using binary logistic regression were performed to assess the significance of the difference and the predictive power of each anthropometric measure, and binary logistic regression and Naive Bayes with the variable selection technique were used to assess the improvement in the predictive power of the patterns using the combined measures. In women, the strongest indicators for determining the cold and heat patterns among anthropometric measures were body mass index (BMI) and rib circumference; in men, the best indicator was BMI. In experiments using a combination of measures, the values of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in women were 0.776 by Naive Bayes and 0.772 by logistic regression, and the values in men were 0.788 by Naive Bayes and 0.779 by logistic regression. Individuals with a higher BMI have a tendency toward a heat pattern in both women and men. The use of a combination of anthropometric measures can slightly improve the diagnostic accuracy. Our findings can provide fundamental information for the diagnosis of cold and heat patterns based on body shape for personalized medicine.

Development and test fuel cell powered on-site integrated total energy systems. Phase 3: Full-scale power plant development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, A.

1982-01-01

The on-site system application analysis is summarized. Preparations were completed for the first test of a full-sized single cell. Emphasis of the methanol fuel processor development program shifted toward the use of commercial shell-and-tube heat exchangers. An improved method for predicting the carbon-monoxide tolerance of anode catalysts is described. Other stack support areas reported include improved ABA bipolar plate bonding technology, improved electrical measurement techniques for specification-testing of stack components, and anodic corrosion behavior of carbon materials.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Value of Combining Left Atrial Diameter and Amino-terminal Pro-brain Natriuretic Peptide to the CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Predicting Stroke and Death in Patients with Sick Sinus Syndrome after Pacemaker Implantation.

PubMed

Mo, Bin-Feng; Lu, Qiu-Fen; Lu, Shang-Biao; Xie, Yu-Quan; Feng, Xiang-Fei; Li, Yi-Gang

2017-08-20

The CHA2DS2-VASc score is used clinically for stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to investigate whether the CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts stroke and death in Chinese patients with sick sinus syndrome (SSS) after pacemaker implantation and to evaluate whether the predictive power of the CHA2DS2-VASc score could be improved by combining it with left atrial diameter (LAD) and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). A total of 481 consecutive patients with SSS who underwent pacemaker implantation from January 2004 to December 2014 in our department were included. The CHA2DS2-VASc scores were retrospectively calculated according to the hospital medical records before pacemaker implantation. The outcome data (stroke and death) were collected by pacemaker follow-up visits and telephonic follow-up until December 31, 2015. During 2151 person-years of follow-up, 46 patients (9.6%) suffered stroke and 52 (10.8%) died. The CHA2DS2-VASc score showed a significant association with the development of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-1.75, P< 0.001) and death (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.22-1.71, P< 0.001). The combination of increased LAD and the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved the predictive power for stroke (C-stat 0.69, 95% CI 0.61-0.77 vs. C-stat 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.74, P= 0.013), and the combination of increased NT-proBNP and the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved the predictive power for death (C-stat 0.70, 95% CI 0.64-0.77 vs. C-stat 0.67, 95% CI 0.60--0.75, P= 0.023). CHA2DS2-VASc score is valuable for predicting stroke and death risk in patients with SSS after pacemaker implantation. The addition of LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive power for stroke and death, respectively, in this patient cohort. Future prospective studies are warranted to validate the benefit of adding LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting stroke and death risk in non-AF populations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Yanwen; Zhu, Zihua

Accurate information of electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in electronic industry, space exploration, national security, and sustainable energy technologies. The Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code has been widely applied to predict stopping powers and ion distributions for decades. Recent experimental results have, however, shown considerable errors in the SRIM predictions for stopping of heavy ions in compounds containing light elements, indicating an urgent need to improve current stopping power models. The electronic stopping powers of 35Cl, 80Br, 127I, and 197Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC and SiO2, frommore » tens to hundreds keV/u based on a single ion technique. By combining with the reciprocity theory, new electronic stopping powers are suggested in a region from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from SRIM predictions are observed. For independent experimental validation of the electronic stopping powers we determined, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC with energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions from both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper (up to ~30%) than the predictions from the commercial SRIM code. In comparison, the new electronic stopping power values are utilized in a modified TRIM-85 (the original version of the SRIM) code, M-TRIM, to predict ion distributions, and the results are in good agreement with the experimentally measured ion distributions.« less

Effect of wake structure on blade-vortex interaction phenomena: Acoustic prediction and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallman, Judith M.; Tung, Chee; Schultz, Klaus J.; Splettstoesser, Wolf; Buchholz, Heino

1995-01-01

During the Higher Harmonic Control Aeroacoustic Rotor Test, extensive measurements of the rotor aerodynamics, the far-field acoustics, the wake geometry, and the blade motion for powered, descent, flight conditions were made. These measurements have been used to validate and improve the prediction of blade-vortex interaction (BVI) noise. The improvements made to the BVI modeling after the evaluation of the test data are discussed. The effects of these improvements on the acoustic-pressure predictions are shown. These improvements include restructuring the wake, modifying the core size, incorporating the measured blade motion into the calculations, and attempting to improve the dynamic blade response. A comparison of four different implementations of the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings equation is presented. A common set of aerodynamic input has been used for this comparison.

Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-01-01

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science. PMID:25387525

Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-11-01

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

Further improvements to linear mixed models for genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-11-12

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

An Advanced Framework for Improving Situational Awareness in Electric Power Grid Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu; Zhou, Ning

With the deployment of new smart grid technologies and the penetration of renewable energy in power systems, significant uncertainty and variability is being introduced into power grid operation. Traditionally, the Energy Management System (EMS) operates the power grid in a deterministic mode, and thus will not be sufficient for the future control center in a stochastic environment with faster dynamics. One of the main challenges is to improve situational awareness. This paper reviews the current status of power grid operation and presents a vision of improving wide-area situational awareness for a future control center. An advanced framework, consisting of parallelmore » state estimation, state prediction, parallel contingency selection, parallel contingency analysis, and advanced visual analytics, is proposed to provide capabilities needed for better decision support by utilizing high performance computing (HPC) techniques and advanced visual analytic techniques. Research results are presented to support the proposed vision and framework.« less

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

PubMed

Kleber, M E; Goliasch, G; Grammer, T B; Pilz, S; Tomaschitz, A; Silbernagel, G; Maurer, G; März, W; Niessner, A

2014-08-01

Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Prediction and measurement of the electromagnetic environment of high-power medium-wave and short-wave broadcast antennas in far field.

PubMed

Tang, Zhanghong; Wang, Qun; Ji, Zhijiang; Shi, Meiwu; Hou, Guoyan; Tan, Danjun; Wang, Pengqi; Qiu, Xianbo

2014-12-01

With the increasing city size, high-power electromagnetic radiation devices such as high-power medium-wave (MW) and short-wave (SW) antennas have been inevitably getting closer and closer to buildings, which resulted in the pollution of indoor electromagnetic radiation becoming worsened. To avoid such radiation exceeding the exposure limits by national standards, it is necessary to predict and survey the electromagnetic radiation by MW and SW antennas before constructing the buildings. In this paper, a modified prediction method for the far-field electromagnetic radiation is proposed and successfully applied to predict the electromagnetic environment of an area close to a group of typical high-power MW and SW wave antennas. Different from currently used simplified prediction method defined in the Radiation Protection Management Guidelines (H J/T 10. 3-1996), the new method in this article makes use of more information such as antennas' patterns to predict the electromagnetic environment. Therefore, it improves the prediction accuracy significantly by the new feature of resolution at different directions. At the end of this article, a comparison between the prediction data and the measured results is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new method. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

generation, exotic storage technologies, smart power grid management, and better power sources for directed-energy weapons (DEW). Accessible partner nation...near term will help to mitigate risks and improve outcomes. 2 Forecasting typically extrapolates predictions based...eventually, diminished national power . Within this context, this paper examines policy, legal, ethical, and strategy implications for DoD from the impact

Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

1996-01-01

The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

Variability in Cadence During Forced Cycling Predicts Motor Improvement in Individuals With Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

Ridgel, Angela L.; Abdar, Hassan Mohammadi; Alberts, Jay L.; Discenzo, Fred M.; Loparo, Kenneth A.

2014-01-01

Variability in severity and progression of Parkinson’s disease symptoms makes it challenging to design therapy interventions that provide maximal benefit. Previous studies showed that forced cycling, at greater pedaling rates, results in greater improvements in motor function than voluntary cycling. The precise mechanism for differences in function following exercise is unknown. We examined the complexity of biomechanical and physiological features of forced and voluntary cycling and correlated these features to improvements in motor function as measured by the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Heart rate, cadence, and power were analyzed using entropy signal processing techniques. Pattern variability in heart rate and power were greater in the voluntary group when compared to forced group. In contrast, variability in cadence was higher during forced cycling. UPDRS Motor III scores predicted from the pattern variability data were highly correlated to measured scores in the forced group. This study shows how time series analysis methods of biomechanical and physiological parameters of exercise can be used to predict improvements in motor function. This knowledge will be important in the development of optimal exercise-based rehabilitation programs for Parkinson’s disease. PMID:23144045

Probabilistic Polling And Voting In The 2008 Presidential Election

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline; Manski, Charles F.

2010-01-01

This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to state in percent-chance terms the likelihood that they will vote and for whom. Before the 2008 presidential election, seven waves of probabilistic questions were administered biweekly to participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Actual voting behavior was reported after the election. We find that responses to the verbal and probabilistic questions are well-aligned ordinally. Moreover, the probabilistic responses predict voting behavior beyond what is possible using verbal responses alone. The probabilistic responses have more predictive power in early August, and the verbal responses have more power in late October. However, throughout the sample period, one can predict voting behavior better using both types of responses than either one alone. Studying the longitudinal pattern of responses, we segment respondents into those who are consistently pro-Obama, consistently anti-Obama, and undecided/vacillators. Membership in the consistently pro- or anti-Obama group is an almost perfect predictor of actual voting behavior, while the undecided/vacillators group has more nuanced voting behavior. We find that treating the ALP as a panel improves predictive power: current and previous polling responses together provide more predictive power than do current responses alone. PMID:24683275

A signature inferred from Drosophila mitotic genes predicts survival of breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Damasco, Christian; Lembo, Antonio; Somma, Maria Patrizia; Gatti, Maurizio; Di Cunto, Ferdinando; Provero, Paolo

2011-02-28

The classification of breast cancer patients into risk groups provides a powerful tool for the identification of patients who will benefit from aggressive systemic therapy. The analysis of microarray data has generated several gene expression signatures that improve diagnosis and allow risk assessment. There is also evidence that cell proliferation-related genes have a high predictive power within these signatures. We thus constructed a gene expression signature (the DM signature) using the human orthologues of 108 Drosophila melanogaster genes required for either the maintenance of chromosome integrity (36 genes) or mitotic division (72 genes). The DM signature has minimal overlap with the extant signatures and is highly predictive of survival in 5 large breast cancer datasets. In addition, we show that the DM signature outperforms many widely used breast cancer signatures in predictive power, and performs comparably to other proliferation-based signatures. For most genes of the DM signature, an increased expression is negatively correlated with patient survival. The genes that provide the highest contribution to the predictive power of the DM signature are those involved in cytokinesis. This finding highlights cytokinesis as an important marker in breast cancer prognosis and as a possible target for antimitotic therapies.

Fourier transform wavefront control with adaptive prediction of the atmosphere.

PubMed

Poyneer, Lisa A; Macintosh, Bruce A; Véran, Jean-Pierre

2007-09-01

Predictive Fourier control is a temporal power spectral density-based adaptive method for adaptive optics that predicts the atmosphere under the assumption of frozen flow. The predictive controller is based on Kalman filtering and a Fourier decomposition of atmospheric turbulence using the Fourier transform reconstructor. It provides a stable way to compensate for arbitrary numbers of atmospheric layers. For each Fourier mode, efficient and accurate algorithms estimate the necessary atmospheric parameters from closed-loop telemetry and determine the predictive filter, adjusting as conditions change. This prediction improves atmospheric rejection, leading to significant improvements in system performance. For a 48x48 actuator system operating at 2 kHz, five-layer prediction for all modes is achievable in under 2x10(9) floating-point operations/s.

Improve SSME power balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Gerald R.

1992-01-01

Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

Control Strategy of Active Power Filter Based on Modular Multilevel Converter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Xifeng

2018-03-01

To improve the capacity, pressure resistance and the equivalent switching frequency of active power filter (APF), a control strategy of APF based on Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) is presented. In this Control Strategy, the indirect current control method is used to achieve active current and reactive current decoupling control; Voltage Balance Control Strategy is to stabilize sub-module capacitor voltage, the predictive current control method is used to Track and control of harmonic currents. As a result, the harmonic current is restrained, and power quality is improved. Finally, the simulation model of active power filter controller based on MMC is established in Matlab/Simulink, the simulation proves that the proposed strategy is feasible and correct.

Research on digital system design of nuclear power valve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaolong; Li, Yuan; Wang, Tao; Dai, Ye

2018-04-01

With the progress of China's nuclear power industry, nuclear power plant valve products is in a period of rapid development, high performance, low cost, short cycle of design requirements for nuclear power valve is proposed, so there is an urgent need for advanced digital design method and integrated design platform to provide technical support. Especially in the background of the nuclear power plant leakage in Japan, it is more practical to improve the design capability and product performance of the nuclear power valve. The finite element numerical analysis is a common and effective method for the development of nuclear power valves. Nuclear power valve has high safety, complexity of valve chamber and nonlinearity of seal joint surface. Therefore, it is urgent to establish accurate prediction models for earthquake prediction and seal failure to meet engineering accuracy and calculation conditions. In this paper, a general method of finite element modeling for nuclear power valve assembly and key components is presented, aiming at revealing the characteristics and rules of finite element modeling of nuclear power valves, and putting forward aprecision control strategy for finite element models for nuclear power valve characteristics analysis.

Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on individual wind turbines. The information is utilized by several technologies including: a) the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which generates finely detailed simulations of future atmospheric conditions, b) the Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System (RTFDDA), which performs continuous data assimilation providing the WRF model with continuous updates of the initial atmospheric state, 3) the Dynamic Integrated Forecast System (DICast®), which statistically optimizes the forecasts using all predictors, and 4) a suite of wind-to-power algorithms that convert wind speed to power for a wide range of wind farms with varying real-time data availability capabilities. In addition to these core wind energy prediction capabilities, NCAR implemented a high-resolution (10 km grid increment) 30-member ensemble RTFDDA prediction system that provides information on the expected range of wind power over a 72-hour forecast period covering Xcel Energy’s service areas. This talk will include descriptions of these capabilities and report on several topics including initial results of next-day forecasts and nowcasts of wind energy ramp events, influence of local observations on forecast skill, and overall lessons learned to date.

A comparison of two types of velocity models for the lunar crust: Smooth continuous and stepwise layered

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangi, A. F.

1978-01-01

The data from the Apollo-14 and Apollo-16 Active Seismic Experiments were reanalyzed and show that a power-law velocity variation with depth is consistent with both the traveltimes and amplitudes of the first arrivals for source-to-geophone separations up to 32m. The data were improved by removing spurious glithches, flickering and stacking. While this improved the signal-to-noise ratios, it was not possible to measure the arrivals beyond 32m. The physical evidence that the shallow lunar regolith is made up of fine particles adds weight to the 1/6-power velocity model. The 1/6-power law predicts the traveltime t(x), varies with separation, x, as t(x) = t sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 5/6 power and, using a first-order theory, the amplitude, A(x), varies as A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the (13-m)/12, M 1; the layer-velocity model predicts t(x) = t sub 0 (x/xsub 0) and A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 2nd power.

Power-constrained supercomputing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, Peter E.

As we approach exascale systems, power is turning from an optimization goal to a critical operating constraint. With power bounds imposed by both stakeholders and the limitations of existing infrastructure, achieving practical exascale computing will therefore rely on optimizing performance subject to a power constraint. However, this requirement should not add to the burden of application developers; optimizing the runtime environment given restricted power will primarily be the job of high-performance system software. In this dissertation, we explore this area and develop new techniques that extract maximum performance subject to a particular power constraint. These techniques include a method to find theoretical optimal performance, a runtime system that shifts power in real time to improve performance, and a node-level prediction model for selecting power-efficient operating points. We use a linear programming (LP) formulation to optimize application schedules under various power constraints, where a schedule consists of a DVFS state and number of OpenMP threads for each section of computation between consecutive message passing events. We also provide a more flexible mixed integer-linear (ILP) formulation and show that the resulting schedules closely match schedules from the LP formulation. Across four applications, we use our LP-derived upper bounds to show that current approaches trail optimal, power-constrained performance by up to 41%. This demonstrates limitations of current systems, and our LP formulation provides future optimization approaches with a quantitative optimization target. We also introduce Conductor, a run-time system that intelligently distributes available power to nodes and cores to improve performance. The key techniques used are configuration space exploration and adaptive power balancing. Configuration exploration dynamically selects the optimal thread concurrency level and DVFS state subject to a hardware-enforced power bound. Adaptive power balancing efficiently predicts where critical paths are likely to occur and distributes power to those paths. Greater power, in turn, allows increased thread concurrency levels, CPU frequency/voltage, or both. We describe these techniques in detail and show that, compared to the state-of-the-art technique of using statically predetermined, per-node power caps, Conductor leads to a best-case performance improvement of up to 30%, and an average improvement of 19.1%. At the node level, an accurate power/performance model will aid in selecting the right configuration from a large set of available configurations. We present a novel approach to generate such a model offline using kernel clustering and multivariate linear regression. Our model requires only two iterations to select a configuration, which provides a significant advantage over exhaustive search-based strategies. We apply our model to predict power and performance for different applications using arbitrary configurations, and show that our model, when used with hardware frequency-limiting in a runtime system, selects configurations with significantly higher performance at a given power limit than those chosen by frequency-limiting alone. When applied to a set of 36 computational kernels from a range of applications, our model accurately predicts power and performance; our runtime system based on the model maintains 91% of optimal performance while meeting power constraints 88% of the time. When the runtime system violates a power constraint, it exceeds the constraint by only 6% in the average case, while simultaneously achieving 54% more performance than an oracle. Through the combination of the above contributions, we hope to provide guidance and inspiration to research practitioners working on runtime systems for power-constrained environments. We also hope this dissertation will draw attention to the need for software and runtime-controlled power management under power constraints at various levels, from the processor level to the cluster level.

Multiple-Swarm Ensembles: Improving the Predictive Power and Robustness of Predictive Models and Its Use in Computational Biology.

PubMed

Alves, Pedro; Liu, Shuang; Wang, Daifeng; Gerstein, Mark

2018-01-01

Machine learning is an integral part of computational biology, and has already shown its use in various applications, such as prognostic tests. In the last few years in the non-biological machine learning community, ensembling techniques have shown their power in data mining competitions such as the Netflix challenge; however, such methods have not found wide use in computational biology. In this work, we endeavor to show how ensembling techniques can be applied to practical problems, including problems in the field of bioinformatics, and how they often outperform other machine learning techniques in both predictive power and robustness. Furthermore, we develop a methodology of ensembling, Multi-Swarm Ensemble (MSWE) by using multiple particle swarm optimizations and demonstrate its ability to further enhance the performance of ensembles.

Development and validation of a shared decision-making instrument for health-related quality of life one year after total hip replacement based on quality registries data.

PubMed

Nemes, Szilard; Rolfson, Ola; Garellick, Göran

2018-02-01

Clinicians considering improvements in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after total hip replacement (THR) must account for multiple pieces of information. Evidence-based decisions are important to best assess the effect of THR on HRQoL. This work aims at constructing a shared decision-making tool that helps clinicians assessing the future benefits of THR by offering predictions of 1-year postoperative HRQoL of THR patients. We used data from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. Data from 2008 were used as training set and data from 2009 to 2012 as validation set. We adopted two approaches. First, we assumed a continuous distribution for the EQ-5D index and modelled the postoperative EQ-5D index with regression models. Second, we modelled the five dimensions of the EQ-5D and weighted together the predictions using the UK Time Trade-Off value set. As predictors, we used preoperative EQ-5D dimensions and the EQ-5D index, EQ visual analogue scale, visual analogue scale pain, Charnley classification, age, gender, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists, surgical approach and prosthesis type. Additionally, the tested algorithms were combined in a single predictive tool by stacking. Best predictive power was obtained by the multivariate adaptive regression splines (R 2  = 0.158). However, this was not significantly better than the predictive power of linear regressions (R 2  = 0.157). The stacked model had a predictive power of 17%. Successful implementation of a shared decision-making tool that can aid clinicians and patients in understanding expected improvement in HRQoL following THR would require higher predictive power than we achieved. For a shared decision-making tool to succeed, further variables, such as socioeconomics, need to be considered. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

2015-08-05

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

Two Stochastic Phases of Tick-wise Price Fluctuation and the Price Prediction Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka-Yamawaki, Mieko; Tokuoka, Seiji

2007-07-01

We report in this paper the existence of two different stochastic phases in the tick-wise price fluctuations. Based on this observation, we improve our old method of developing the evolutional strategy to predict the direction of the tick-wise price movements. We obtain a stable predictive power even in the region where the old method had a difficulty.

Improved output power of GaN-based light-emitting diodes grown on a nanopatterned sapphire substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chia-Hua; Hou, Chia-Hung; Tseng, Shao-Ze; Chen, Tsing-Jen; Chien, Hung-Ta; Hsiao, Fu-Li; Lee, Chien-Chieh; Tsai, Yen-Ling; Chen, Chii-Chang

2009-07-01

This letter describes the improved output power of GaN-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) formed on a nanopatterned sapphire substrate (NPSS) prepared through etching with a self-assembled monolayer of 750-nm-diameter SiO2 nanospheres used as the mask. The output power of NPSS LEDs was 76% greater than that of LEDs on a flat sapphire substrate. Three-dimensional finite-difference time-domain calculation predicted a 40% enhancement in light extraction efficiency of NPSS LEDs. In addition, the reduction of full widths at half maximum in the ω-scan rocking curves for the (0 0 2) and (1 0 2) planes of GaN on NPSS suggested improved crystal quality.

A comprehensive review of on-board State-of-Available-Power prediction techniques for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmann, Alexander; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2016-10-01

This study provides an overview of available techniques for on-board State-of-Available-Power (SoAP) prediction of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles. Different approaches dealing with the on-board estimation of battery State-of-Charge (SoC) or State-of-Health (SoH) have been extensively discussed in various researches in the past. However, the topic of SoAP prediction has not been explored comprehensively yet. The prediction of the maximum power that can be applied to the battery by discharging or charging it during acceleration, regenerative braking and gradient climbing is definitely one of the most challenging tasks of battery management systems. In large lithium-ion battery packs because of many factors, such as temperature distribution, cell-to-cell deviations regarding the actual battery impedance or capacity either in initial or aged state, the use of efficient and reliable methods for battery state estimation is required. The available battery power is limited by the safe operating area (SOA), where SOA is defined by battery temperature, current, voltage and SoC. Accurate SoAP prediction allows the energy management system to regulate the power flow of the vehicle more precisely and optimize battery performance and improve its lifetime accordingly. To this end, scientific and technical literature sources are studied and available approaches are reviewed.

Modelling for Prediction vs. Modelling for Understanding: Commentary on Musso et al. (2013)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edelsbrunner, Peter; Schneider, Michael

2013-01-01

Musso et al. (2013) predict students' academic achievement with high accuracy one year in advance from cognitive and demographic variables, using artificial neural networks (ANNs). They conclude that ANNs have high potential for theoretical and practical improvements in learning sciences. ANNs are powerful statistical modelling tools but they can…

Evaluating the predictive power of multivariate tensor-based morphometry in Alzheimer's disease progression via convex fused sparse group Lasso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, Sinchai; Gajawelli, Niharika; Zhou, Jiayu; Shi, Jie; Ye, Jieping; Wang, Yalin; Lepore, Natasha

2014-03-01

Prediction of Alzheimers disease (AD) progression based on baseline measures allows us to understand disease progression and has implications in decisions concerning treatment strategy. To this end we combine a predictive multi-task machine learning method1 with novel MR-based multivariate morphometric surface map of the hippocampus2 to predict future cognitive scores of patients. Previous work by Zhou et al.1 has shown that a multi-task learning framework that performs prediction of all future time points (or tasks) simultaneously can be used to encode both sparsity as well as temporal smoothness. They showed that this can be used in predicting cognitive outcomes of Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) subjects based on FreeSurfer-based baseline MRI features, MMSE score demographic information and ApoE status. Whilst volumetric information may hold generalized information on brain status, we hypothesized that hippocampus specific information may be more useful in predictive modeling of AD. To this end, we applied Shi et al.2s recently developed multivariate tensor-based (mTBM) parametric surface analysis method to extract features from the hippocampal surface. We show that by combining the power of the multi-task framework with the sensitivity of mTBM features of the hippocampus surface, we are able to improve significantly improve predictive performance of ADAS cognitive scores 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months from baseline.

Performance of an inverted pendulum model directly applied to normal human gait.

PubMed

Buczek, Frank L; Cooney, Kevin M; Walker, Matthew R; Rainbow, Michael J; Concha, M Cecilia; Sanders, James O

2006-03-01

In clinical gait analysis, we strive to understand contributions to body support and propulsion as this forms a basis for treatment selection, yet the relative importance of gravitational forces and joint powers can be controversial even for normal gait. We hypothesized that an inverted pendulum model, propelled only by gravity, would be inadequate to predict velocities and ground reaction forces during gait. Unlike previous ballistic and passive dynamic walking studies, we directly compared model predictions to gait data for 24 normal children. We defined an inverted pendulum from the average center-of-pressure to the instantaneous center-of-mass, and derived equations of motion during single support that allowed a telescoping action. Forward and inverse dynamics predicted pendulum velocities and ground reaction forces, and these were statistically and graphically compared to actual gait data for identical strides. Results of forward dynamics replicated those in the literature, with reasonable predictions for velocities and anterior ground reaction forces, but poor predictions for vertical ground reaction forces. Deviations from actual values were explained by joint powers calculated for these subjects. With a telescoping action during inverse dynamics, predicted vertical forces improved dramatically and gained a dual-peak pattern previously missing in the literature, yet expected for normal gait. These improvements vanished when telescoping terms were set to zero. Because this telescoping action is difficult to explain without muscle activity, we believe these results support the need for both gravitational forces and joint powers in normal gait. Our approach also begins to quantify the relative contributions of each.

Use seismic colored inversion and power law committee machine based on imperial competitive algorithm for improving porosity prediction in a heterogeneous reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansari, Hamid Reza

2014-09-01

In this paper we propose a new method for predicting rock porosity based on a combination of several artificial intelligence systems. The method focuses on one of the Iranian carbonate fields in the Persian Gulf. Because there is strong heterogeneity in carbonate formations, estimation of rock properties experiences more challenge than sandstone. For this purpose, seismic colored inversion (SCI) and a new approach of committee machine are used in order to improve porosity estimation. The study comprises three major steps. First, a series of sample-based attributes is calculated from 3D seismic volume. Acoustic impedance is an important attribute that is obtained by the SCI method in this study. Second, porosity log is predicted from seismic attributes using common intelligent computation systems including: probabilistic neural network (PNN), radial basis function network (RBFN), multi-layer feed forward network (MLFN), ε-support vector regression (ε-SVR) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Finally, a power law committee machine (PLCM) is constructed based on imperial competitive algorithm (ICA) to combine the results of all previous predictions in a single solution. This technique is called PLCM-ICA in this paper. The results show that PLCM-ICA model improved the results of neural networks, support vector machine and neuro-fuzzy system.

The Acoustic Analogy: A Powerful Tool in Aeroacoustics with Emphasis on Jet Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farassat, F.; Doty, Michael J.; Hunter, Craig A.

2004-01-01

The acoustic analogy introduced by Lighthill to study jet noise is now over 50 years old. In the present paper, Lighthill s Acoustic Analogy is revisited together with a brief evaluation of the state-of-the-art of the subject and an exploration of the possibility of further improvements in jet noise prediction from analytical methods, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions, and measurement techniques. Experimental Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) data is used both to evaluate turbulent statistics from Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD and to propose correlation models for the Lighthill stress tensor. The NASA Langley Jet3D code is used to study the effect of these models on jet noise prediction. From the analytical investigation, a retarded time correction is shown that improves, by approximately 8 dB, the over-prediction of aft-arc jet noise by Jet3D. In experimental investigation, the PIV data agree well with the CFD mean flow predictions, with room for improvement in Reynolds stress predictions. Initial modifications, suggested by the PIV data, to the form of the Jet3D correlation model showed no noticeable improvements in jet noise prediction.

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

2017-01-27

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

Statistical modeling to support power system planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staid, Andrea

This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate change. The scenario-based approach allows me to address the deep uncertainty present by quantifying the range of impacts, identifying the most critical parameters, and assessing the sensitivity of local areas to a changing risk. Overall, this body of work quantifies the uncertainties present in several operational and planning decisions for power system applications.

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

PubMed

Trimpou, P; Odén, A; Simonsson, T; Wilhelmsen, L; Landin-Wilhelmsen, K

2011-05-01

Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were evaluated in 1,396 men and women for a period of 20 years. Serum total cholesterol was found to be an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term risk factors for osteoporotic fracture. A population random sample of men and women aged 25-64 years (the Gothenburg WHO MONICA project, N = 1,396, 53% women) was studied prospectively. The 1985 baseline examination recorded physical activity at work and during leisure time, psychological stress, smoking habits, coffee consumption, BMI, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure, total, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fibrinogen. Osteoporotic fractures over a period of 20 years were retrieved from the Gothenburg hospital registers. Poisson regression was used to analyze the predictive power for osteoporotic fracture of each risk factor. A total number of 258 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 143 participants (10.2%). As expected, we found that previous fracture, smoking, coffee consumption, and lower BMI each increase the risk for osteoporotic fracture independently of age and sex. More unexpectedly, we found that the gradient of risk of serum total cholesterol to predict osteoporotic fracture significantly increases over time (p = 0.0377). Serum total cholesterol is an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

Predictive optimized adaptive PSS in a single machine infinite bus.

PubMed

Milla, Freddy; Duarte-Mermoud, Manuel A

2016-07-01

Power System Stabilizer (PSS) devices are responsible for providing a damping torque component to generators for reducing fluctuations in the system caused by small perturbations. A Predictive Optimized Adaptive PSS (POA-PSS) to improve the oscillations in a Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) power system is discussed in this paper. POA-PSS provides the optimal design parameters for the classic PSS using an optimization predictive algorithm, which adapts to changes in the inputs of the system. This approach is part of small signal stability analysis, which uses equations in an incremental form around an operating point. Simulation studies on the SMIB power system illustrate that the proposed POA-PSS approach has better performance than the classical PSS. In addition, the effort in the control action of the POA-PSS is much less than that of other approaches considered for comparison. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Polling And Voting In The 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence From The American Life Panel.

PubMed

Delavande, Adeline; Manski, Charles F

2010-01-01

This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling , which asks persons to state in percent-chance terms the likelihood that they will vote and for whom. Before the 2008 presidential election, seven waves of probabilistic questions were administered biweekly to participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Actual voting behavior was reported after the election. We find that responses to the verbal and probabilistic questions are well-aligned ordinally. Moreover, the probabilistic responses predict voting behavior beyond what is possible using verbal responses alone. The probabilistic responses have more predictive power in early August, and the verbal responses have more power in late October. However, throughout the sample period, one can predict voting behavior better using both types of responses than either one alone. Studying the longitudinal pattern of responses, we segment respondents into those who are consistently pro-Obama , consistently anti-Obama , and undecided/vacillators . Membership in the consistently pro- or anti-Obama group is an almost perfect predictor of actual voting behavior, while the undecided/vacillators group has more nuanced voting behavior. We find that treating the ALP as a panel improves predictive power: current and previous polling responses together provide more predictive power than do current responses alone.

Predictive power of the grace score in population with diabetes.

PubMed

Baeza-Román, Anna; de Miguel-Balsa, Eva; Latour-Pérez, Jaime; Carrillo-López, Andrés

2017-12-01

Current clinical practice guidelines recommend risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) upon admission to hospital. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is widely recognized as an independent predictor of mortality in these patients, although it is not included in the GRACE risk score. The objective of this study is to validate the GRACE risk score in a contemporary population and particularly in the subgroup of patients with diabetes, and to test the effects of including the DM variable in the model. Retrospective cohort study in patients included in the ARIAM-SEMICYUC registry, with a diagnosis of ACS and with available in-hospital mortality data. We tested the predictive power of the GRACE score, calculating the area under the ROC curve. We assessed the calibration of the score and the predictive ability based on type of ACS and the presence of DM. Finally, we evaluated the effect of including the DM variable in the model by calculating the net reclassification improvement. The GRACE score shows good predictive power for hospital mortality in the study population, with a moderate degree of calibration and no significant differences based on ACS type or the presence of DM. Including DM as a variable did not add any predictive value to the GRACE model. The GRACE score has an appropriate predictive power, with good calibration and clinical applicability in the subgroup of diabetic patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Contributions of the stochastic shape wake model to predictions of aerodynamic loads and power under single wake conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doubrawa, P.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Wang, H.

The contribution of wake meandering and shape asymmetry to load and power estimates is quantified by comparing aeroelastic simulations initialized with different inflow conditions: an axisymmetric base wake, an unsteady stochastic shape wake, and a large-eddy simulation with rotating actuator-line turbine representation. Time series of blade-root and tower base bending moments are analyzed. We find that meandering has a large contribution to the fluctuation of the loads. Moreover, considering the wake edge intermittence via the stochastic shape model improves the simulation of load and power fluctuations and of the fatigue damage equivalent loads. Furthermore, these results indicate that the stochasticmore » shape wake simulator is a valuable addition to simplified wake models when seeking to obtain higher-fidelity computationally inexpensive predictions of loads and power.« less

Contributions of the stochastic shape wake model to predictions of aerodynamic loads and power under single wake conditions

DOE PAGES

Doubrawa, P.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Wang, H.; ...

2016-10-03

The contribution of wake meandering and shape asymmetry to load and power estimates is quantified by comparing aeroelastic simulations initialized with different inflow conditions: an axisymmetric base wake, an unsteady stochastic shape wake, and a large-eddy simulation with rotating actuator-line turbine representation. Time series of blade-root and tower base bending moments are analyzed. We find that meandering has a large contribution to the fluctuation of the loads. Moreover, considering the wake edge intermittence via the stochastic shape model improves the simulation of load and power fluctuations and of the fatigue damage equivalent loads. Furthermore, these results indicate that the stochasticmore » shape wake simulator is a valuable addition to simplified wake models when seeking to obtain higher-fidelity computationally inexpensive predictions of loads and power.« less

Helping each other grow: romantic partner support, self-improvement, and relationship quality.

PubMed

Overall, Nickola C; Fletcher, Garth J O; Simpson, Jeffry A

2010-11-01

This research tested whether and how partners' support of self-improvement efforts influences recipients' relationship evaluations and self-improvement success. Study 1 provided an initial test of predictions using self-reports (N = 150). Study 2 assessed support behavior exhibited in couples' (N = 47) discussions of self-improvement desires, and tracked relationship quality and self-improvement every 3 months for 1 year. More nurturing and action-facilitating partner support was more helpful to recipients, whereas partners who criticized and invalidated recipients were less helpful. Receiving more help from the partner, in turn, predicted greater relationship quality and more self-improvement. More negative support seeking also predicted lower self-improvement because recipients' behavior elicited less partner help. These effects were not attributable to partners' general warmth and understanding, global self or relationship evaluations, how much recipients desired or tried to change, or whether targeted attributes posed relationship problems. This research documents the powerful influence that partners' help has on recipients' personal growth.

Optical glucose monitoring using vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSELs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talebi Fard, Sahba; Hofmann, Werner; Talebi Fard, Pouria; Kwok, Ezra; Amann, Markus-Christian; Chrostowski, Lukas

2009-08-01

Diabetes Mellitus is a common chronic disease that has become a public health issue. Continuous glucose monitoring improves patient health by stabilizing the glucose levels. Optical methods are one of the painless and promising methods that can be used for blood glucose predictions. However, having accuracies lower than what is acceptable clinically has been a major concern. Using lasers along with multivariate techniques such as Partial Least Square (PLS) can improve glucose predictions. This research involves investigations for developing a novel optical system for accurate glucose predictions, which leads to the development of a small, low power, implantable optical sensor for diabetes patients.

Predicting Microbial Fuel Cell Biofilm Communities and Bioreactor Performance using Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Lesnik, Keaton Larson; Liu, Hong

2017-09-19

The complex interactions that occur in mixed-species bioelectrochemical reactors, like microbial fuel cells (MFCs), make accurate predictions of performance outcomes under untested conditions difficult. While direct correlations between any individual waste stream characteristic or microbial community structure and reactor performance have not been able to be directly established, the increase in sequencing data and readily available computational power enables the development of alternate approaches. In the current study, 33 MFCs were evaluated under a range of conditions including eight separate substrates and three different wastewaters. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used to establish mathematical relationships between wastewater/solution characteristics, biofilm communities, and reactor performance. ANN models that incorporated biotic interactions predicted reactor performance outcomes more accurately than those that did not. The average percent error of power density predictions was 16.01 ± 4.35%, while the average percent error of Coulombic efficiency and COD removal rate predictions were 1.77 ± 0.57% and 4.07 ± 1.06%, respectively. Predictions of power density improved to within 5.76 ± 3.16% percent error through classifying taxonomic data at the family versus class level. Results suggest that the microbial communities and performance of bioelectrochemical systems can be accurately predicted using data-mining, machine-learning techniques.

Incorporating Midbrain Adaptation to Mean Sound Level Improves Models of Auditory Cortical Processing

PubMed Central

Schoppe, Oliver; King, Andrew J.; Schnupp, Jan W.H.; Harper, Nicol S.

2016-01-01

Adaptation to stimulus statistics, such as the mean level and contrast of recently heard sounds, has been demonstrated at various levels of the auditory pathway. It allows the nervous system to operate over the wide range of intensities and contrasts found in the natural world. Yet current standard models of the response properties of auditory neurons do not incorporate such adaptation. Here we present a model of neural responses in the ferret auditory cortex (the IC Adaptation model), which takes into account adaptation to mean sound level at a lower level of processing: the inferior colliculus (IC). The model performs high-pass filtering with frequency-dependent time constants on the sound spectrogram, followed by half-wave rectification, and passes the output to a standard linear–nonlinear (LN) model. We find that the IC Adaptation model consistently predicts cortical responses better than the standard LN model for a range of synthetic and natural stimuli. The IC Adaptation model introduces no extra free parameters, so it improves predictions without sacrificing parsimony. Furthermore, the time constants of adaptation in the IC appear to be matched to the statistics of natural sounds, suggesting that neurons in the auditory midbrain predict the mean level of future sounds and adapt their responses appropriately. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT An ability to accurately predict how sensory neurons respond to novel stimuli is critical if we are to fully characterize their response properties. Attempts to model these responses have had a distinguished history, but it has proven difficult to improve their predictive power significantly beyond that of simple, mostly linear receptive field models. Here we show that auditory cortex receptive field models benefit from a nonlinear preprocessing stage that replicates known adaptation properties of the auditory midbrain. This improves their predictive power across a wide range of stimuli but keeps model complexity low as it introduces no new free parameters. Incorporating the adaptive coding properties of neurons will likely improve receptive field models in other sensory modalities too. PMID:26758822

Proates a computer modelling system for power plant: Its description and application to heatrate improvement within PowerGen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, C.H.; Ready, A.B.; Rea, J.

1995-06-01

Versions of the computer program PROATES (PROcess Analysis for Thermal Energy Systems) have been used since 1979 to analyse plant performance improvement proposals relating to existing plant and also to evaluate new plant designs. Several plant modifications have been made to improve performance based on the model predictions and the predicted performance has been realised in practice. The program was born out of a need to model the overall steady state performance of complex plant to enable proposals to change plant component items or operating strategy to be evaluated. To do this with confidence it is necessary to model themore » multiple thermodynamic interactions between the plant components. The modelling system is modular in concept allowing the configuration of individual plant components to represent any particular power plant design. A library exists of physics based modules which have been extensively validated and which provide representations of a wide range of boiler, turbine and CW system components. Changes to model data and construction is achieved via a user friendly graphical model editing/analysis front-end with results being presented via the computer screen or hard copy. The paper describes briefly the modelling system but concentrates mainly on the application of the modelling system to assess design re-optimisation, firing with different fuels and the re-powering of an existing plant.« less

Improved pump turbine transient behaviour prediction using a Thoma number-dependent hillchart model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manderla, M.; Kiniger, K.; Koutnik, J.

2014-03-01

Water hammer phenomena are important issues for high head hydro power plants. Especially, if several reversible pump-turbines are connected to the same waterways there may be strong interactions between the hydraulic machines. The prediction and coverage of all relevant load cases is challenging and difficult using classical simulation models. On the basis of a recent pump-storage project, dynamic measurements motivate an improved modeling approach making use of the Thoma number dependency of the actual turbine behaviour. The proposed approach is validated for several transient scenarios and turns out to increase correlation between measurement and simulation results significantly. By applying a fully automated simulation procedure broad operating ranges can be covered which provides a consistent insight into critical load case scenarios. This finally allows the optimization of the closing strategy and hence the overall power plant performance.

Improving Communicative Competence with "Clickers": Acceptance/Attitudes among Nigerian Primary School Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agbatogun, Alaba Olaoluwakotansibe

2014-01-01

This study examined the predictive power of teachers' perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEU), behavioural intention (BI) to use personal response system (PRS) and computer experience (CE) on teachers' acceptance and attitude towards using PRS in improving communicative competence in the classroom where English is taught as a second…

Comparative evaluation of power factor impovement techniques for squirrel cage induction motors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spee, R.; Wallace, A.K.

1992-04-01

This paper describes the results obtained from a series of tests of relatively simple methods of improving the power factor of squirrel-cage induction motors. The methods, which are evaluated under controlled laboratory conditions for a 10-hp, high-efficiency motor, include terminal voltage reduction; terminal static capacitors; and a floating'' winding with static capacitors. The test results are compared with equivalent circuit model predictions that are then used to identify optimum conditions for each of the power factor improvement techniques compared with the basic induction motor. Finally, the relative economic value, and the implications of component failures, of the three methods aremore » discussed.« less

Preliminary power train design for a state-of-the-art electric vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, J. A.; Wooldridge, G. A.

1978-01-01

The state-of-the-art (SOTA) of electric vehicles built since 1965 was reviewed to establish a base for the preliminary design of a power train for a SOTA electric vehicle. The performance of existing electric vehicles were evaluated to establish preliminary specifications for a power train design using state-of-the-art technology and commercially available components. Power train components were evaluated and selected using a computer simulation of the SAE J227a Schedule D driving cycle. Predicted range was determined for a number of motor and controller combinations in conjunction with the mechanical elements of power trains and a battery pack of sixteen lead-acid batteries - 471.7 kg at 0.093 MJ/Kg (1040 lbs. at 11.7 Whr/lb). On the basis of maximum range and overall system efficiency using the Schedule D cycle, an induction motor and 3 phase inverter/controller was selected as the optimum combination when used with a two-speed transaxle and steel belted radial tires. The predicted Schedule D range is 90.4 km (56.2 mi). Four near term improvements to the SOTA were identified, evaluated, and predicted to increase range approximately 7%.

Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M.

1979-01-01

The constant demand for increased power and reduced mass has raised the internal temperature of conventionally cooled power magnetics toward the upper limit of acceptability. The conflicting demands of electrical isolation, mechanical integrity, and thermal conductivity preclude significant further advancements using conventional approaches. However, the size and mass of multikilowatt power processing systems may be further reduced by the incorporation of heat pipe cooling directly into the power magnetics. Additionally, by maintaining lower more constant temperatures, the life and reliability of the magnetic devices will be improved. A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter have been developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30-cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. This paper presents the design details along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

Modeling forest biomass and growth: Coupling long-term inventory and LiDAR data

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; Bruce D. Cook; Aaron Weiskittel; Christopher W. Woodall

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB...

Assessment of Specific Characteristics of Abnormal General Movements: Does It Enhance the Prediction of Cerebral Palsy?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamer, Elisa G.; Bos, Arend F.; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2011-01-01

Aim: Abnormal general movements at around 3 months corrected age indicate a high risk of cerebral palsy (CP). We aimed to determine whether specific movement characteristics can improve the predictive power of definitely abnormal general movements. Method: Video recordings of 46 infants with definitely abnormal general movements at 9 to 13 weeks…

Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieger, Daniel; Steiner, Andrea; Bachmann, Vanessa; Gasch, Philipp; Förstner, Jochen; Deetz, Konrad; Vogel, Bernhard; Vogel, Heike

2017-11-01

The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV) power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

A learning curve for solar thermal power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platzer, Werner J.; Dinter, Frank

2016-05-01

Photovoltaics started its success story by predicting the cost degression depending on cumulated installed capacity. This so-called learning curve was published and used for predictions for PV modules first, then predictions of system cost decrease also were developed. This approach is less sensitive to political decisions and changing market situations than predictions on the time axis. Cost degression due to innovation, use of scaling effects, improved project management, standardised procedures including the search for better sites and optimization of project size are learning effects which can only be utilised when projects are developed. Therefore a presentation of CAPEX versus cumulated installed capacity is proposed in order to show the possible future advancement of the technology to politics and market. However from a wide range of publications on cost for CSP it is difficult to derive a learning curve. A logical cost structure for direct and indirect capital expenditure is needed as the basis for further analysis. Using derived reference cost for typical power plant configurations predictions of future cost have been derived. Only on the basis of that cost structure and the learning curve levelised cost of electricity for solar thermal power plants should be calculated for individual projects with different capacity factors in various locations.

Application of the aeroacoustic analogy to a shrouded, subsonic, radial fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccieri, Bryan M.; Richards, Christopher M.

2016-12-01

A study was conducted to investigate the predictive capability of computational aeroacoustics with respect to a shrouded, subsonic, radial fan. A three dimensional unsteady fluid dynamics simulation was conducted to produce aerodynamic data used as the acoustic source for an aeroacoustics simulation. Two acoustic models were developed: one modeling the forces on the rotating fan blades as a set of rotating dipoles located at the center of mass of each fan blade and one modeling the forces on the stationary fan shroud as a field of distributed stationary dipoles. Predicted acoustic response was compared to experimental data measured at two operating speeds using three different outlet restrictions. The blade source model predicted overall far field sound power levels within 5 dB averaged over the six different operating conditions while the shroud model predicted overall far field sound power levels within 7 dB averaged over the same conditions. Doubling the density of the computational fluids mesh and using a scale adaptive simulation turbulence model increased broadband noise accuracy. However, computation time doubled and the accuracy of the overall sound power level prediction improved by only 1 dB.

Self-efficacy, pain, and quadriceps capacity at baseline predict changes in mobility performance over 2 years in women with knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Brisson, Nicholas M; Gatti, Anthony A; Stratford, Paul W; Maly, Monica R

2018-02-01

This study examined the extent to which baseline measures of quadriceps strength, quadriceps power, knee pain and self-efficacy for functional tasks, and their interactions, predicted 2-year changes in mobility performance (walking, stair ascent, stair descent) in women with knee osteoarthritis. We hypothesized that lesser strength, power and self-efficacy, and higher pain at baseline would each be independently associated with reduced mobility over 2 years, and each of pain and self-efficacy would interact with strength and power in predicting 2-year change in stair-climbing performance. This was a longitudinal, observational study of women with clinical knee osteoarthritis. At baseline and follow-up, mobility was assessed with the Six-Minute Walk Test, and stair ascent and descent tasks. Quadriceps strength and power, knee pain, and self-efficacy for functional tasks were also collected at baseline. Multiple linear regression examined the extent to which 2-year changes in mobility performances were predicted by baseline strength, power, pain, and self-efficacy, after adjusting for covariates. Data were analyzed for 37 women with knee osteoarthritis over 2 years. Lower baseline self-efficacy predicted decreased walking (β = 1.783; p = 0.030) and stair ascent (β = -0.054; p < 0.001) performances over 2 years. Higher baseline pain intensity/frequency predicted decreased walking performance (β = 1.526; p = 0.002). Lower quadriceps strength (β = 0.051; p = 0.015) and power (β = 0.022; p = 0.022) interacted with lesser self-efficacy to predict worsening stair ascent performance. Strategies to sustain or improve mobility in women with knee osteoarthritis must focus on controlling pain and boosting self-efficacy. In those with worse self-efficacy, developing knee muscle capacity is an important target.

Influence of polygenic risk scores on lipid levels and dyslipidemia in a psychiatric population receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs.

PubMed

Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Lagares Santos, Patricia; Saigi Morgui, Nuria; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Glatard, Anaïs; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2017-12-01

Dyslipidemia represents a major health issue in psychiatry. We determined whether weighted polygenic risk scores (wPRSs) combining multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with lipid levels in the general population are associated with lipid levels [high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides] and/or dyslipidemia in patients receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs. We also determined whether genetics improve the predictive power of dyslipidemia. The influence of wPRS on lipid levels was firstly assessed in a discovery psychiatric sample (n=332) and was then tested for replication in an independent psychiatric sample (n=140). The contribution of genetic markers to predict dyslipidemia was evaluated in the combined psychiatric sample. wPRSs were significantly associated with the four lipid traits in the discovery (P≤0.02) and in the replication sample (P≤0.03). Patients whose wPRS was higher than the median wPRS had significantly higher LDL, TC, and triglyceride levels (0.20, 0.32 and 0.26 mmol/l, respectively; P≤0.004) and significantly lower HDL levels (0.13 mmol/l; P<0.0001) compared with others. Adding wPRS to clinical data significantly improved dyslipidemia prediction of HDL (P=0.03) and a trend for improvement was observed for the prediction of TC dyslipidemia (P=0.08). Population-based wPRSs have thus significant effects on lipid levels in the psychiatric population. As genetics improved the predictive power of dyslipidemia development, only 24 patients need to be genotyped to prevent the development of one case of HDL hypocholesterolemia. If confirmed by further prospective investigations, the present results could be used for individualizing psychotropic treatment.

Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

PubMed

Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

2010-11-01

Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

Wind Plant Preconstruction Energy Estimates. Current Practice and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clifton, Andrew; Smith, Aaron; Fields, Michael

2016-04-19

Understanding the amount of energy that will be harvested by a wind power plant each year and the variability of that energy is essential to assessing and potentially improving the financial viability of that power plant. The preconstruction energy estimate process predicts the amount of energy--with uncertainty estimates--that a wind power plant will deliver to the point of revenue. This report describes the preconstruction energy estimate process from a technical perspective and seeks to provide insight into the financial implications associated with each step.

Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M. S.

1979-01-01

A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter were developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30 cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. The design details are presented along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

Jet impingement heat transfer enhancement for the GPU-3 Stirling engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. C.; Congdon, C. W.; Begg, L. L.; Britt, E. J.; Thieme, L. G.

1981-01-01

A computer model of the combustion-gas-side heat transfer was developed to predict the effects of a jet impingement system and the possible range of improvements available. Using low temperature (315 C (600 F)) pretest data in an updated model, a high temperature silicon carbide jet impingement heat transfer system was designed and fabricated. The system model predicted that at the theoretical maximum limit, jet impingement enhanced heat transfer can: (1) reduce the flame temperature by 275 C (500 F); (2) reduce the exhaust temperature by 110 C (200 F); and (3) increase the overall heat into the working fluid by 10%, all for an increase in required pumping power of less than 0.5% of the engine power output. Initial tests on the GPU-3 Stirling engine at NASA-Lewis demonstrated that the jet impingement system increased the engine output power and efficiency by 5% - 8% with no measurable increase in pumping power. The overall heat transfer coefficient was increased by 65% for the maximum power point of the tests.

Performance of Reclassification Statistics in Comparing Risk Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Paynter, Nina P.

2012-01-01

Concerns have been raised about the use of traditional measures of model fit in evaluating risk prediction models for clinical use, and reclassification tables have been suggested as an alternative means of assessing the clinical utility of a model. Several measures based on the table have been proposed, including the reclassification calibration (RC) statistic, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), but the performance of these in practical settings has not been fully examined. We used simulations to estimate the type I error and power for these statistics in a number of scenarios, as well as the impact of the number and type of categories, when adding a new marker to an established or reference model. The type I error was found to be reasonable in most settings, and power was highest for the IDI, which was similar to the test of association. The relative power of the RC statistic, a test of calibration, and the NRI, a test of discrimination, varied depending on the model assumptions. These tools provide unique but complementary information. PMID:21294152

Optical Coherence Tomography–Based Corneal Power Measurement and Intraocular Lens Power Calculation Following Laser Vision Correction (An American Ophthalmological Society Thesis)

PubMed Central

Huang, David; Tang, Maolong; Wang, Li; Zhang, Xinbo; Armour, Rebecca L.; Gattey, Devin M.; Lombardi, Lorinna H.; Koch, Douglas D.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To use optical coherence tomography (OCT) to measure corneal power and improve the selection of intraocular lens (IOL) power in cataract surgeries after laser vision correction. Methods: Patients with previous myopic laser vision corrections were enrolled in this prospective study from two eye centers. Corneal thickness and power were measured by Fourier-domain OCT. Axial length, anterior chamber depth, and automated keratometry were measured by a partial coherence interferometer. An OCT-based IOL formula was developed. The mean absolute error of the OCT-based formula in predicting postoperative refraction was compared to two regression-based IOL formulae for eyes with previous laser vision correction. Results: Forty-six eyes of 46 patients all had uncomplicated cataract surgery with monofocal IOL implantation. The mean arithmetic prediction error of postoperative refraction was 0.05 ± 0.65 diopter (D) for the OCT formula, 0.14 ± 0.83 D for the Haigis-L formula, and 0.24 ± 0.82 D for the no-history Shammas-PL formula. The mean absolute error was 0.50 D for OCT compared to a mean absolute error of 0.67 D for Haigis-L and 0.67 D for Shammas-PL. The adjusted mean absolute error (average prediction error removed) was 0.49 D for OCT, 0.65 D for Haigis-L (P=.031), and 0.62 D for Shammas-PL (P=.044). For OCT, 61% of the eyes were within 0.5 D of prediction error, whereas 46% were within 0.5 D for both Haigis-L and Shammas-PL (P=.034). Conclusions: The predictive accuracy of OCT-based IOL power calculation was better than Haigis-L and Shammas-PL formulas in eyes after laser vision correction. PMID:24167323

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development-Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738-0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749-0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577-0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565-0.711]). Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model.

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development—Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed Central

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B.; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

Aim The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Methods Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Results Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738–0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749–0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577–0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565–0.711]). Conclusions Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model. PMID:28692646

Development and verification of NRC`s single-rod fuel performance codes FRAPCON-3 AND FRAPTRAN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyer, C.E.; Cunningham, M.E.; Lanning, D.D.

1998-03-01

The FRAPCON and FRAP-T code series, developed in the 1970s and early 1980s, are used by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to predict fuel performance during steady-state and transient power conditions, respectively. Both code series are now being updated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to improve their predictive capabilities at high burnup levels. The newest versions of the codes are called FRAPCON-3 and FRAPTRAN. The updates to fuel property and behavior models are focusing on providing best estimate predictions under steady-state and fast transient power conditions up to extended fuel burnups (> 55 GWd/MTU). Both codes will be assessedmore » against a data base independent of the data base used for code benchmarking and an estimate of code predictive uncertainties will be made based on comparisons to the benchmark and independent data bases.« less

New algorithm for toric intraocular lens power calculation considering the posterior corneal astigmatism.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; Alarcon, Aixa; Rosén, Robert; Kasthurirangan, Sanjeev; Ma, Joseph J K; Koch, Douglas D; Piers, Patricia

2018-02-01

To assess the accuracy of toric intraocular lens (IOL) power calculations of a new algorithm that incorporates the effect of posterior corneal astigmatism (PCA). Abbott Medical Optics, Inc., Groningen, the Netherlands. Retrospective case report. In eyes implanted with toric IOLs, the exact vergence formula of the Tecnis toric calculator was used to predict refractive astigmatism from preoperative biometry, surgeon-estimated surgically induced astigmatism (SIA), and implanted IOL power, with and without including the new PCA algorithm. For each calculation method, the error in predicted refractive astigmatism was calculated as the vector difference between the prediction and the actual refraction. Calculations were also made using postoperative keratometry (K) values to eliminate the potential effect of incorrect SIA estimates. The study comprised 274 eyes. The PCA algorithm significantly reduced the centroid error in predicted refractive astigmatism (P < .001). With the PCA algorithm, the centroid error reduced from 0.50 @ 1 to 0.19 @ 3 when using preoperative K values and from 0.30 @ 0 to 0.02 @ 84 when using postoperative K values. Patients who had anterior corneal against-the-rule, with-the-rule, and oblique astigmatism had improvement with the PCA algorithm. In addition, the PCA algorithm reduced the median absolute error in all groups (P < .001). The use of the new PCA algorithm decreased the error in the prediction of residual refractive astigmatism in eyes implanted with toric IOLs. Therefore, the new PCA algorithm, in combination with an exact vergence IOL power calculation formula, led to an increased predictability of toric IOL power. Copyright © 2018 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of temporal transcription expression profiles reveal links between protein function and developmental stages of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Wan, Cen; Lees, Jonathan G; Minneci, Federico; Orengo, Christine A; Jones, David T

2017-10-01

Accurate gene or protein function prediction is a key challenge in the post-genome era. Most current methods perform well on molecular function prediction, but struggle to provide useful annotations relating to biological process functions due to the limited power of sequence-based features in that functional domain. In this work, we systematically evaluate the predictive power of temporal transcription expression profiles for protein function prediction in Drosophila melanogaster. Our results show significantly better performance on predicting protein function when transcription expression profile-based features are integrated with sequence-derived features, compared with the sequence-derived features alone. We also observe that the combination of expression-based and sequence-based features leads to further improvement of accuracy on predicting all three domains of gene function. Based on the optimal feature combinations, we then propose a novel multi-classifier-based function prediction method for Drosophila melanogaster proteins, FFPred-fly+. Interpreting our machine learning models also allows us to identify some of the underlying links between biological processes and developmental stages of Drosophila melanogaster.

An Improved Computational Technique for Calculating Electromagnetic Forces and Power Absorptions Generated in Spherical and Deformed Body in Levitation Melting Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zong, Jin-Ho; Szekely, Julian; Schwartz, Elliot

1992-01-01

An improved computational technique for calculating the electromagnetic force field, the power absorption and the deformation of an electromagnetically levitated metal sample is described. The technique is based on the volume integral method, but represents a substantial refinement; the coordinate transformation employed allows the efficient treatment of a broad class of rotationally symmetrical bodies. Computed results are presented to represent the behavior of levitation melted metal samples in a multi-coil, multi-frequency levitation unit to be used in microgravity experiments. The theoretical predictions are compared with both analytical solutions and with the results or previous computational efforts for the spherical samples and the agreement has been very good. The treatment of problems involving deformed surfaces and actually predicting the deformed shape of the specimens breaks new ground and should be the major usefulness of the proposed method.

Research on regional numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1976-01-01

Extension of the predictive power of dynamic weather forecasting to scales below the conventional synoptic or cyclonic scales in the near future is assessed. Lower costs per computation, more powerful computers, and a 100 km mesh over the North American area (with coarser mesh extending beyond it) are noted at present. Doubling the resolution even locally (to 50 km mesh) would entail a 16-fold increase in costs (including vertical resolution and halving the time interval), and constraints on domain size and length of forecast. Boundary conditions would be provided by the surrounding 100 km mesh, and time-varying lateral boundary conditions can be considered to handle moving phenomena. More physical processes to treat, more efficient numerical techniques, and faster computers (improved software and hardware) backing up satellite and radar data could produce further improvements in forecasting in the 1980s. Boundary layer modeling, initialization techniques, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are singled out among key tasks.

Coordinated control of active and reactive power of distribution network with distributed PV cluster via model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Yu; Sheng, Wanxing; Jin, Wei; Wu, Ming; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Feng

2018-02-01

A coordinated optimal control method of active and reactive power of distribution network with distributed PV cluster based on model predictive control is proposed in this paper. The method divides the control process into long-time scale optimal control and short-time scale optimal control with multi-step optimization. The models are transformed into a second-order cone programming problem due to the non-convex and nonlinear of the optimal models which are hard to be solved. An improved IEEE 33-bus distribution network system is used to analyse the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed control method

Boundary layer control for airships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pake, F. A.; Pipitone, S. J.

1975-01-01

An investigation is summarized of the aerodynamic principle of boundary layer control for nonrigid LTA craft. The project included a wind tunnel test on a BLC body of revolution at zero angle of attack. Theoretical analysis is shown to be in excellent agreement with the test data. Methods are evolved for predicting the boundary layer development on a body of revolution and the suction pumping and propulsive power requirements. These methods are used to predict the performance characteristics of a full-scale airship. The analysis indicates that propulsive power reductions of 15 to 25 percent and endurance improvements of 20 to 40 percent may be realized in employing boundary-layer control to nonrigid airships.

Lightweight Damage Tolerant Radiators for In-Space Nuclear Electric Power and Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craven, Paul; SanSoucie, Michael P.; Tomboulian, Briana; Rogers, Jan; Hyers, Robert

2014-01-01

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) is a promising option for high-speed in-space travel due to the high energy density of nuclear power sources and efficient electric thrusters. Advanced power conversion technologies for converting thermal energy from the reactor to electrical energy at high operating temperatures would benefit from lightweight, high temperature radiator materials. Radiator performance dictates power output for nuclear electric propulsion systems. Pitch-based carbon fiber materials have the potential to offer significant improvements in operating temperature and mass. An effort at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to show that woven high thermal conductivity carbon fiber mats can be used to replace standard metal and composite radiator fins to dissipate waste heat from NEP systems is ongoing. The goals of this effort are to demonstrate a proof of concept, to show that a significant improvement of specific power (power/mass) can be achieved, and to develop a thermal model with predictive capabilities. A description of this effort is presented.

Improvement of short-term numerical wind predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedard, Joel

Geophysic Model Output Statistics (GMOS) are developed to optimize the use of NWP for complex sites. GMOS differs from other MOS that are widely used by meteorological centers in the following aspects: it takes into account the surrounding geophysical parameters such as surface roughness, terrain height, etc., along with wind direction; it can be directly applied without any training, although training will further improve the results. The GMOS was applied to improve the Environment Canada GEM-LAM 2.5km forecasts at North Cape (PEI, Canada): It improves the predictions RMSE by 25-30% for all time horizons and almost all meteorological conditions; the topographic signature of the forecast error due to insufficient grid refinement is eliminated and the NWP combined with GMOS outperform the persistence from a 2h horizon, instead of 4h without GMOS. Finally, GMOS was applied at another site (Bouctouche, NB, Canada): similar improvements were observed, thus showing its general applicability. Keywords: wind energy, wind power forecast, numerical weather prediction, complex sites, model output statistics

Small UAV Research and Evolution in Long Endurance Electric Powered Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logan, Michael J.; Chu, Julio; Motter, Mark A.; Carter, Dennis L.; Ol, Michael; Zeune, Cale

2007-01-01

This paper describes recent research into the advancement of small, electric powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities. Specifically, topics include the improvements made in battery technology, design methodologies, avionics architectures and algorithms, materials and structural concepts, propulsion system performance prediction, and others. The results of prototype vehicle designs and flight tests are discussed in the context of their usefulness in defining and validating progress in the various technology areas. Further areas of research need are also identified. These include the need for more robust operating regimes (wind, gust, etc.), and continued improvement in payload fraction vs. endurance.

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

2017-04-01

Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts, and one or more benchmark studies implemented on the Windbench platform hosted at CENER. Additionally, spreading of relevant information in both the forecasters and the users community is paramount. The poster also shows the work done in the first half of the Task, e.g. the collection of available datasets and the learnings from a public workshop on 9 June in Barcelona on Experiences with the Use of Forecasts and Gaps in Research. Participation is open for all interested parties in member states of the IEA Annex on Wind Power, see ieawind.org for the up-to-date list. For collaboration, please contact the author grgi@dtu.dk).

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, G.; Nielsen, T. S.; Hahmann, A.; Sørensen, P.; Madsen, H.

2012-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. With regard to the latter, one such simulation tool has been developed at the Wind Energy Division, Risø DTU, intended for long term power system planning. As part of the PSO project the inferior NWP model used at present will be replaced by the state-of-the-art Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. Furthermore, the integrated simulation tool will be improved so it can handle simultaneously 10-50 times more turbines than the present ~ 300, as well as additional atmospheric parameters will be included in the model. The WRF data will also be input for a statistical short term prediction model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated prediction tool constitute scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator, and the need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2020, from the current 20%.

Neonatal Sleep-Wake Analyses Predict 18-month Neurodevelopmental Outcomes.

PubMed

Shellhaas, Renée A; Burns, Joseph W; Hassan, Fauziya; Carlson, Martha D; Barks, John D E; Chervin, Ronald D

2017-11-01

The neurological examination of critically ill neonates is largely limited to reflexive behavior. The exam often ignores sleep-wake physiology that may reflect brain integrity and influence long-term outcomes. We assessed whether polysomnography and concurrent cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) might improve prediction of 18-month neurodevelopmental outcomes. Term newborns with suspected seizures underwent standardized neurologic examinations to generate Thompson scores and had 12-hour bedside polysomnography with concurrent cerebral NIRS. For each infant, the distribution of sleep-wake stages and electroencephalogram delta power were computed. NIRS-derived fractional tissue oxygen extraction (FTOE) was calculated across sleep-wake stages. At age 18-22 months, surviving participants were evaluated with Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley-III), 3rd edition. Twenty-nine participants completed Bayley-III. Increased newborn time in quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month cognitive and motor scores (robust regression models, adjusted r2 = 0.22, p = .007, and 0.27, .004, respectively). Decreased 0.5-2 Hz electroencephalograph (EEG) power during quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month language and motor scores (adjusted r2 = 0.25, p = .0005, and 0.33, .001, respectively). Predictive values remained significant after adjustment for neonatal Thompson scores or exposure to phenobarbital. Similarly, an attenuated difference in FTOE, between neonatal wakefulness and quiet sleep, predicted worse 18-month cognitive, language, and motor scores in adjusted analyses (each p < .05). These prospective, longitudinal data suggest that inefficient neonatal sleep-as quantified by increased time in quiet sleep, lower electroencephalogram delta power during that stage, and muted differences in FTOE between quiet sleep and wakefulness-may improve prediction of adverse long-term outcomes for newborns with neurological dysfunction. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigations, modeling, and analyses of high-temperature devices for space applications: Part 1. Final report, June 1996--December 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tournier, J.; El-Genk, M.S.; Huang, L.

1999-01-01

The Institute of Space and Nuclear Power Studies at the University of New Mexico has developed a computer simulation of cylindrical geometry alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter cells using a standard Fortran 77 computer code. The objective and use of this code was to compare the experimental measurements with computer simulations, upgrade the model as appropriate, and conduct investigations of various methods to improve the design and performance of the devices for improved efficiency, durability, and longer operational lifetime. The Institute of Space and Nuclear Power Studies participated in vacuum testing of PX series alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter cells and developedmore » the alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter Performance Evaluation and Analysis Model. This computer model consisted of a sodium pressure loss model, a cell electrochemical and electric model, and a radiation/conduction heat transfer model. The code closely predicted the operation and performance of a wide variety of PX series cells which led to suggestions for improvements to both lifetime and performance. The code provides valuable insight into the operation of the cell, predicts parameters of components within the cell, and is a useful tool for predicting both the transient and steady state performance of systems of cells.« less

Experimental investigations, modeling, and analyses of high-temperature devices for space applications: Part 2. Final report, June 1996--December 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tournier, J.; El-Genk, M.S.; Huang, L.

1999-01-01

The Institute of Space and Nuclear Power Studies at the University of New Mexico has developed a computer simulation of cylindrical geometry alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter cells using a standard Fortran 77 computer code. The objective and use of this code was to compare the experimental measurements with computer simulations, upgrade the model as appropriate, and conduct investigations of various methods to improve the design and performance of the devices for improved efficiency, durability, and longer operational lifetime. The Institute of Space and Nuclear Power Studies participated in vacuum testing of PX series alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter cells and developedmore » the alkali metal thermal-to-electric converter Performance Evaluation and Analysis Model. This computer model consisted of a sodium pressure loss model, a cell electrochemical and electric model, and a radiation/conduction heat transfer model. The code closely predicted the operation and performance of a wide variety of PX series cells which led to suggestions for improvements to both lifetime and performance. The code provides valuable insight into the operation of the cell, predicts parameters of components within the cell, and is a useful tool for predicting both the transient and steady state performance of systems of cells.« less

Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Luis; Marchante, Ruth; Cony, Marco

2010-10-15

Due to strong increase of solar power generation, the predictions of incoming solar energy are acquiring more importance. Photovoltaic and solar thermal are the main sources of electricity generation from solar energy. In the case of solar thermal energy plants with storage energy system, its management and operation need reliable predictions of solar irradiance with the same temporal resolution as the temporal capacity of the back-up system. These plants can work like a conventional power plant and compete in the energy stock market avoiding intermittence in electricity production. This work presents a comparisons of statistical models based on time seriesmore » applied to predict half daily values of global solar irradiance with a temporal horizon of 3 days. Half daily values consist of accumulated hourly global solar irradiance from solar raise to solar noon and from noon until dawn for each day. The dataset of ground solar radiation used belongs to stations of Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The models tested are autoregressive, neural networks and fuzzy logic models. Due to the fact that half daily solar irradiance time series is non-stationary, it has been necessary to transform it to two new stationary variables (clearness index and lost component) which are used as input of the predictive models. Improvement in terms of RMSD of the models essayed is compared against the model based on persistence. The validation process shows that all models essayed improve persistence. The best approach to forecast half daily values of solar irradiance is neural network models with lost component as input, except Lerida station where models based on clearness index have less uncertainty because this magnitude has a linear behaviour and it is easier to simulate by models. (author)« less

Brendan McBennett | NREL

Science.gov Websites

more accurately modeling interchange pricing rules between Regional Transmission Organizations. Areas Market to market coordination between Regional Transmission Organizations Research Interests Modeling the Indian power system with improved transmission representation to more accurately predict RE integration

Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method

PubMed Central

Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

2016-01-01

A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds. PMID:27270206

Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method.

PubMed

Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

2016-06-08

A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: rank-based nonlinear predictability score.

PubMed

Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G

2014-09-01

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G.

2014-09-01

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Using EarthScope magnetotelluric data to improve the resilience of the US power grid: rapid predictions of geomagnetically induced currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, A.; Bonner, L. R., IV

2016-12-01

Existing methods to predict Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in power grids, such as the North American Electric Reliability Corporation standard adopted by the power industry, require explicit knowledge of the electrical resistivity structure of the crust and mantle to solve for ground level electric fields along transmission lines. The current standard is to apply regional 1-D resistivity models to this problem, which facilitates rapid solution of the governing equations. The systematic mapping of continental resistivity structure from projects such as EarthScope reveals several orders of magnitude of lateral variations in resistivity on local, regional and continental scales, resulting in electric field intensifications relative to existing 1-D solutions that can impact GICs to first order. The computational burden on the ground resistivity/GIC problem of coupled 3-D solutions inhibits the prediction of GICs in a timeframe useful to protecting power grids. In this work we reduce the problem to applying a set of filters, recognizing that the magnetotelluric impedance tensors implicitly contain all known information about the resistivity structure beneath a given site, and thus provides the required relationship between electric and magnetic fields at each site. We project real-time magnetic field data from distant magnetic observatories through a robustly calculated multivariate transfer function to locations where magnetotelluric impedance tensors had previously been obtained. This provides a real-time prediction of the magnetic field at each of those points. We then project the predicted magnetic fields through the impedance tensors to obtain predictions of electric fields induced at ground level. Thus, electric field predictions can be generated in real-time for an entire array from real-time observatory data, then interpolated onto points representing a power transmission line contained within the array to produce a combined electric field prediction necessary for GIC prediction along that line. This method produces more accurate predictions of ground electric fields in conductively heterogeneous areas that are not limited by distance from the nearest observatory, while still retaining comparable computational speeds as existing methods.

Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

PubMed

Ljunge, Martin

2016-09-01

Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated power quality for line commutated photovoltaic residential system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeill, B. W.; Mirza, M. A.

1983-10-01

A residential photovoltaic system using a line commutated inverter is modeled using a single diode model for the solar cells and a four switch model for the inverter. The model predicts power factor and total harmonic distortion as a function of solar radiation, array voltage, inverter output voltage, and inverter filter capacitor and inductor size. The model was run using parameter values appropriate for the John F. Long PV System and the predicted results compared well with measured results from the system. The model shows that improvements in total harmonic distortion are made at the expense of the power factor. The harmonic distortion is least when the inverter is operating at just continuous conduction. The total harmonic distortion can be kept to less than 0.17 all day if a variable inductor is used in the inverter's input filters.

ARPA-E: Advancing the Electric Grid

ScienceCinema

Lemmon, John; Ruiz, Pablo; Sommerer, Tim; Aziz, Michael

2018-06-07

The electric grid was designed with the assumption that all energy generation sources would be relatively controllable, and grid operators would always be able to predict when and where those sources would be located. With the addition of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which can be installed faster than traditional generation technologies, this is no longer the case. Furthermore, the fact that renewable energy sources are imperfectly predictable means that the grid has to adapt in real-time to changing patterns of power flow. We need a dynamic grid that is far more flexible. This video highlights three ARPA-E-funded approaches to improving the grid's flexibility: topology control software from Boston University that optimizes power flow, gas tube switches from General Electric that provide efficient power conversion, and flow batteries from Harvard University that offer grid-scale energy storage.

Improved prediction of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy by genetic polymorphisms.

PubMed

Morote, Juan; Del Amo, Jokin; Borque, Angel; Ars, Elisabet; Hernández, Carlos; Herranz, Felipe; Arruza, Antonio; Llarena, Roberto; Planas, Jacques; Viso, María J; Palou, Joan; Raventós, Carles X; Tejedor, Diego; Artieda, Marta; Simón, Laureano; Martínez, Antonio; Rioja, Luis A

2010-08-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms are inherited genetic variations that can predispose or protect individuals against clinical events. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphism profiling may improve the prediction of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. We performed a retrospective, multi-institutional study of 703 patients treated with radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer who had at least 5 years of followup after surgery. All patients were genotyped for 83 prostate cancer related single nucleotide polymorphisms using a low density oligonucleotide microarray. Baseline clinicopathological variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed to predict biochemical recurrence within 5 years using stepwise logistic regression. Discrimination was measured by ROC curve AUC, specificity, sensitivity, predictive values, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination index. The overall biochemical recurrence rate was 35%. The model with the best fit combined 8 covariates, including the 5 clinicopathological variables prostate specific antigen, Gleason score, pathological stage, lymph node involvement and margin status, and 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms at the KLK2, SULT1A1 and TLR4 genes. Model predictive power was defined by 80% positive predictive value, 74% negative predictive value and an AUC of 0.78. The model based on clinicopathological variables plus single nucleotide polymorphisms showed significant improvement over the model without single nucleotide polymorphisms, as indicated by 23.3% net reclassification improvement (p = 0.003), integrated discrimination index (p <0.001) and likelihood ratio test (p <0.001). Internal validation proved model robustness (bootstrap corrected AUC 0.78, range 0.74 to 0.82). The calibration plot showed close agreement between biochemical recurrence observed and predicted probabilities. Predicting biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy based on clinicopathological data can be significantly improved by including patient genetic information. Copyright (c) 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Weather Information Tailored to the Needs of Transmission System Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberts, I.; Stauch, V.; Lee, D.; Hagedorn, R.

2014-12-01

Reliable and accurate forecasts for wind and photovoltaic (PV) power production are essential for stable transmission systems. A high potential for improving the wind and PV power forecasts lies in optimizing the weather forecasts, since these energy sources are highly weather dependent. For this reason the main objective of the German research project EWeLiNE is to improve the quality the underlying numerical weather predictions towards energy operations. In this project, the German Meteorological Service (DWD), the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology, and three of the German transmission system operators (TSOs) are working together to improve the weather and power forecasts. Probabilistic predictions are of particular interest, as the quantification of uncertainties provides an important tool for risk management. Theoretical considerations suggest that it can be advantageous to use probabilistic information to represent and respond to the remaining uncertainties in the forecasts. However, it remains a challenge to integrate this information into the decision making processes related to market participation and power systems operations. The project is planned and carried out in close cooperation with the involved TSOs in order to ensure the usability of the products developed. It will conclude with a demonstration phase, in which the improved models and newly developed products are combined into a process chain and used to provide information to TSOs in a real-time decision support tool. The use of a web-based development platform enables short development cycles and agile adaptation to evolving user needs. This contribution will present the EWeLiNE project and discuss ideas on how to incorporate probabilistic information into the users' current decision making processes.

A tale of four surveys:What have we learned about the variable sky?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, S. B.

2008-03-01

Four tales concerning a set of photometric imaging surveys are spun. The reader is lead through a brief description of each survey and major results are presented. The four surveys are summarized in a few simple "rules": 1) The fraction of point sources that are variable with respect to those that are found to be constant, increases as a power law as the photometric precision of the survey improves, and 2) This fact can be simply formulated as a power law function granting the user a predictive power.

Modelling sheet erosion on steep slopes in the loess region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bing; Wang, Zhanli; Zhang, Qingwei; Shen, Nan; Liu, June

2017-10-01

The relationship of sheet erosion rate (SE), slope gradient (S) and rainfall intensity (I), and hydraulic parameters, such as flow velocity (V), shear stress (τ), stream power (Ω) and unit stream power (P), was investigated to derive an accurate experimental model. The experiment was conducted at slopes of 12.23%, 17.63%, 26.8%, 36.4%, 40.4% and 46.63% under I of 48, 60, 90, 120, 138 and 150 mm h-1, respectively, using simulated rainfall. Results showed that sheet erosion rate increased as a power function with rainfall intensity and slope gradient with R2 = 0.95 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) = 0.87. Sheet erosion rate was more sensitive to rainfall intensity than to slope gradient. It increased as a power function with flow velocity, which was satisfactory for predicting sheet erosion rate with R2 = 0.95 and NSE = 0.81. Shear stress and stream power could be used to predict sheet erosion rate accurately with a linear function equation. Stream power (R2 = 0.97, NSE = 0.97) was a better predictor of sheet erosion rather than shear stress (R2 = 0.90, NSE = 0.89). However, a prediction based on unit stream power was poor. The new equation (i.e. SE = 7.5 ×1012S1.43I3.04 and SE = 0.06 Ω - 0.0003 and SE = 0.011 τ - 0.01) would improve water erosion estimation on loess hillslopes of China.

Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.

2017-12-01

Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.

Effects of rhythmic stimulus presentation on oscillatory brain activity: the physiology of cueing in Parkinson’s disease

PubMed Central

te Woerd, Erik S.; Oostenveld, Robert; Bloem, Bastiaan R.; de Lange, Floris P.; Praamstra, Peter

2015-01-01

The basal ganglia play an important role in beat perception and patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are impaired in perception of beat-based rhythms. Rhythmic cues are nonetheless beneficial in gait rehabilitation, raising the question how rhythm improves movement in PD. We addressed this question with magnetoencephalography recordings during a choice response task with rhythmic and non-rhythmic modes of stimulus presentation. Analyses focused on (i) entrainment of slow oscillations, (ii) the depth of beta power modulation, and (iii) whether a gain in modulation depth of beta power, due to rhythmicity, is of predictive or reactive nature. The results show weaker phase synchronisation of slow oscillations and a relative shift from predictive to reactive movement-related beta suppression in PD. Nonetheless, rhythmic stimulus presentation increased beta modulation depth to the same extent in patients and controls. Critically, this gain selectively increased the predictive and not reactive movement-related beta power suppression. Operation of a predictive mechanism, induced by rhythmic stimulation, was corroborated by a sensory gating effect in the sensorimotor cortex. The predictive mode of cue utilisation points to facilitation of basal ganglia-premotor interactions, contrasting with the popular view that rhythmic stimulation confers a special advantage in PD, based on recruitment of alternative pathways. PMID:26509117

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Predicting outcome of Internet-based treatment for depressive symptoms.

PubMed

Warmerdam, Lisanne; Van Straten, Annemieke; Twisk, Jos; Cuijpers, Pim

2013-01-01

In this study we explored predictors and moderators of response to Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and Internet-based problem-solving therapy (PST) for depressive symptoms. The sample consisted of 263 participants with moderate to severe depressive symptoms. Of those, 88 were randomized to CBT, 88 to PST and 87 to a waiting list control condition. Outcomes were improvement and clinically significant change in depressive symptoms after 8 weeks. Higher baseline depression and higher education predicted improvement, while higher education, less avoidance behavior and decreased rational problem-solving skills predicted clinically significant change across all groups. No variables were found that differentially predicted outcome between Internet-based CBT and Internet-based PST. More research is needed with sufficient power to investigate predictors and moderators of response to reveal for whom Internet-based therapy is best suited.

Prediction of clinical behaviour and treatment for cancers.

PubMed

Futschik, Matthias E; Sullivan, Mike; Reeve, Anthony; Kasabov, Nikola

2003-01-01

Prediction of clinical behaviour and treatment for cancers is based on the integration of clinical and pathological parameters. Recent reports have demonstrated that gene expression profiling provides a powerful new approach for determining disease outcome. If clinical and microarray data each contain independent information then it should be possible to combine these datasets to gain more accurate prognostic information. Here, we have used existing clinical information and microarray data to generate a combined prognostic model for outcome prediction for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). A prediction accuracy of 87.5% was achieved. This constitutes a significant improvement compared to the previously most accurate prognostic model with an accuracy of 77.6%. The model introduced here may be generally applicable to the combination of various types of molecular and clinical data for improving medical decision support systems and individualising patient care.

Reverberant acoustic energy in auditoria that comprise systems of coupled rooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Jason E.

2003-11-01

A frequency-dependent model for reverberant energy in coupled rooms is developed and compared with measurements for a 1:10 scale model and for Bass Hall, Ft. Worth, TX. At high frequencies, prior statistical-acoustics models are improved by geometrical-acoustics corrections for decay within sub-rooms and for energy transfer between sub-rooms. Comparisons of computational geometrical acoustics predictions based on beam-axis tracing with scale model measurements indicate errors resulting from tail-correction assuming constant quadratic growth of reflection density. Using ray tracing in the late part corrects this error. For mid-frequencies, the models are modified to account for wave effects at coupling apertures by including power transmission coefficients. Similarly, statical-acoustics models are improved through more accurate estimates of power transmission measurements. Scale model measurements are in accord with the predicted behavior. The edge-diffraction model is adapted to study transmission through apertures. Multiple-order scattering is theoretically and experimentally shown inaccurate due to neglect of slope diffraction. At low frequencies, perturbation models qualitatively explain scale model measurements. Measurements confirm relation of coupling strength to unperturbed pressure distribution on coupling surfaces. Measurements in Bass Hall exhibit effects of the coupled stage house. High frequency predictions of statistical acoustics and geometrical acoustics models and predictions of coupling apertures all agree with measurements.

Towards the Improved Discovery and Design of Functional Peptides: Common Features of Diverse Classes Permit Generalized Prediction of Bioactivity

PubMed Central

Mooney, Catherine; Haslam, Niall J.; Pollastri, Gianluca; Shields, Denis C.

2012-01-01

The conventional wisdom is that certain classes of bioactive peptides have specific structural features that endow their particular functions. Accordingly, predictions of bioactivity have focused on particular subgroups, such as antimicrobial peptides. We hypothesized that bioactive peptides may share more general features, and assessed this by contrasting the predictive power of existing antimicrobial predictors as well as a novel general predictor, PeptideRanker, across different classes of peptides. We observed that existing antimicrobial predictors had reasonable predictive power to identify peptides of certain other classes i.e. toxin and venom peptides. We trained two general predictors of peptide bioactivity, one focused on short peptides (4–20 amino acids) and one focused on long peptides ( amino acids). These general predictors had performance that was typically as good as, or better than, that of specific predictors. We noted some striking differences in the features of short peptide and long peptide predictions, in particular, high scoring short peptides favour phenylalanine. This is consistent with the hypothesis that short and long peptides have different functional constraints, perhaps reflecting the difficulty for typical short peptides in supporting independent tertiary structure. We conclude that there are general shared features of bioactive peptides across different functional classes, indicating that computational prediction may accelerate the discovery of novel bioactive peptides and aid in the improved design of existing peptides, across many functional classes. An implementation of the predictive method, PeptideRanker, may be used to identify among a set of peptides those that may be more likely to be bioactive. PMID:23056189

Study on new energy development planning and absorptive capability of Xinjiang in China considering resource characteristics and demand prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Hai; Miao, Xujuan; Liu, Jinpeng; Wu, Meng; Zhao, Xuehua

2018-02-01

Xinjiang, as the area where wind energy and solar energy resources are extremely rich, with good resource development characteristics, can provide a support for regional power development and supply protection. This paper systematically analyzes the new energy resource and development characteristics of Xinjiang and carries out the demand prediction and excavation of load characteristics of Xinjiang power market. Combing the development plan of new energy of Xinjiang and considering the construction of transmission channel, it analyzes the absorptive capability of new energy. It provides certain reference for the comprehensive planning of new energy development in Xinjiang and the improvement of absorptive capacity of new energy.

Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

2015-10-05

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

Development and fabrication of improved Schottky power diodes, phases I and II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cordes, L. F.; Garfinkle, M.; Taft, E. A.

1974-01-01

Reproducible methods for the fabrication of silicon Schottky diodes were developed for the metals tungsten, aluminum, conventional platinum silicide and low temperature platinum silicide. Barrier heights and barrier lowering were measured permitting the accurate prediction of ideal forward and reverse diode performance. Processing procedures were developed which permit the fabrication of large area (approximately 1 sqcm) mesa-geometry power Schottky diodes with forward and reverse characteristics that approach theoretical values.

The Comprehensive, Powerful, Academic Database (CPAD): An Evaluative Study of a Predictive Tool Designed for Elementary School Personnel in Identifying At-Risk Students through Progress, Curriculum, and Performance Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chavez-Gibson, Sarah

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to exam in-depth, the Comprehensive, Powerful, Academic Database (CPAD), a data decision-making tool that determines and identifies students at-risk of dropping out of school, and how the CPAD assists administrators and teachers at an elementary campus to monitor progress, curriculum, and performance to improve student…

NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource High Resolution Meteorology Data For Sustainable Building Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2013-01-01

A primary objective of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to adapt and infuse NASA's solar and meteorological data into the energy, agricultural, and architectural industries. Improvements are continuously incorporated when higher resolution and longer-term data inputs become available. Climatological data previously provided via POWER web applications were three-hourly and 1x1 degree latitude/longitude. The NASA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data set provides higher resolution data products (hourly and 1/2x1/2 degree) covering the entire globe. Currently POWER solar and meteorological data are available for more than 30 years on hourly (meteorological only), daily, monthly and annual time scales. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings. A recent focus has been working with ASHRAE to assess complementing weather station data with MERRA data. ASHRAE building design parameters being investigated include heating/cooling degree days and climate zones.

Early Changes in QRS Frequency Following Cardiac Resynchronization Predict Hemodynamic Response in Left Bundle Branch Block Patients.

PubMed

Niebauer, Mark J; Rickard, John; Tchou, Patrick J; Varma, Niraj

2016-05-01

QRS characteristics are the cornerstone of patient selection in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and the presence of left bundle branch block (LBBB) and baseline QRS ≥150 milliseconds portends a good outcome. We previously showed that baseline QRS frequency analysis adds predictive value to LBBB alone and have hypothesized that a change in frequency characteristics following CRT may produce additional predictive value. We examined the QRS frequency characteristics of 182 LBBB patients before and soon after CRT. Patients were assigned to responder and nonresponder groups. Responders were defined by a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) ≥15% following CRT. We analyzed the QRS in ECG leads I, AVF, and V3 before and soon after CRT using the discrete Fourier transform algorithm. The percentage of total QRS power within discrete frequency intervals before and after CRT was calculated. The reduction in lead V3 power <10 Hz was the best indicator of response. Baseline QRS width was similar between the responders and nonresponders (162.2 ± 17.2 milliseconds vs. 158 ± 22.1 milliseconds, respectively; P = 0.180). Responders exhibited a greater reduction in QRS power <10 Hz (-17.0 ± 11.9% vs. -6.6 ± 12.5%; P < 0.001) and a significant AUC (0.743; P < 0.001). A ≥8% decline in QRS power <10 Hz produced the best predictive values (PPV = 84%, NPV = 59%). Importantly, when patients with baseline QRS <150 milliseconds were compared, the AUC improved (0.892, P < 0.001). Successful CRT produces a significant reduction in QRS power below 10 Hz, particularly when baseline QRS <150 milliseconds. These results indicate that QRS frequency changes after CRT provide additional predictive value to QRS alone. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Tony A.; Wanik, David W.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Roman, Miguel O.; Griffin, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

Equality for all? White Americans' willingness to address inequality with Asian and African Americans.

PubMed

Bikmen, Nida; Durkin, Kristine

2014-10-01

White Americans' willingness to engage in dialogues about intergroup commonalities and power inequalities with Asian and African Americans were examined in two experiments. Because Whites perceive that African Americans experience greater discrimination than do Asian Americans, we predicted that they would be more willing to engage in dialogues that would interrogate injustice and inequality with them. We also explored the role of common in-group identity (as Americans) on willingness for dialogue about inequality. In both studies, Whites were less interested in engaging in power talk with Asian Americans than with African Americans, but the difference in willingness for commonality talk was smaller. Asian Americans were perceived as experiencing lower levels of discrimination (Studies 1 and 2) and identify less with America (Study 2) both of which predicted lower willingness for power talk with them. Common in-group identity manipulations had marginal effects on willingness for power talk with African Americans and no effect on power talk with Asian Americans. Implications for improving social disparities between various groups were discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

TIME-INTEGRATED EXPOSURE MEASURES TO IMPROVE THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF EXPOSURE CLASSIFICATION FOR EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate exposure classification tools are required to link exposure with health effects in epidemiological studies. Although long-term integrated exposure measurements are a critical component of exposure assessment, the ability to include these measurements into epidemiologic...

Nonlinear predictive control for durability enhancement and efficiency improvement in a fuel cell power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Julio; Jemei, Samir; Yousfi-Steiner, Nadia; Husar, Attila; Serra, Maria; Hissel, Daniel

2016-10-01

In this work, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) strategy is proposed to improve the efficiency and enhance the durability of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) power system. The PEMFC controller is based on a distributed parameters model that describes the nonlinear dynamics of the system, considering spatial variations along the gas channels. Parasitic power from different system auxiliaries is considered, including the main parasitic losses which are those of the compressor. A nonlinear observer is implemented, based on the discretised model of the PEMFC, to estimate the internal states. This information is included in the cost function of the controller to enhance the durability of the system by means of avoiding local starvation and inappropriate water vapour concentrations. Simulation results are presented to show the performance of the proposed controller over a given case study in an automotive application (New European Driving Cycle). With the aim of representing the most relevant phenomena that affects the PEMFC voltage, the simulation model includes a two-phase water model and the effects of liquid water on the catalyst active area. The control model is a simplified version that does not consider two-phase water dynamics.

Increasing power generation in horizontal axis wind turbines using optimized flow control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooney, John A., Jr.

In order to effectively realize future goals for wind energy, the efficiency of wind turbines must increase beyond existing technology. One direct method for achieving increased efficiency is by improving the individual power generation characteristics of horizontal axis wind turbines. The potential for additional improvement by traditional approaches is diminishing rapidly however. As a result, a research program was undertaken to assess the potential of using distributed flow control to increase power generation. The overall objective was the development of validated aerodynamic simulations and flow control approaches to improve wind turbine power generation characteristics. BEM analysis was conducted for a general set of wind turbine models encompassing last, current, and next generation designs. This analysis indicated that rotor lift control applied in Region II of the turbine power curve would produce a notable increase in annual power generated. This was achieved by optimizing induction factors along the rotor blade for maximum power generation. In order to demonstrate this approach and other advanced concepts, the University of Notre Dame established the Laboratory for Enhanced Wind Energy Design (eWiND). This initiative includes a fully instrumented meteorological tower and two pitch-controlled wind turbines. The wind turbines are representative in their design and operation to larger multi-megawatt turbines, but of a scale that allows rotors to be easily instrumented and replaced to explore new design concepts. Baseline data detailing typical site conditions and turbine operation is presented. To realize optimized performance, lift control systems were designed and evaluated in CFD simulations coupled with shape optimization tools. These were integrated into a systematic design methodology involving BEM simulations, CFD simulations and shape optimization, and selected experimental validation. To refine and illustrate the proposed design methodology, a complete design cycle was performed for the turbine model incorporated in the wind energy lab. Enhanced power generation was obtained through passive trailing edge shaping aimed at reaching lift and lift-to-drag goals predicted to optimize performance. These targets were determined by BEM analysis to improve power generation characteristics and annual energy production (AEP) for the wind turbine. A preliminary design was validated in wind tunnel experiments on a 2D rotor section in preparation for testing in the full atmospheric environment of the eWiND Laboratory. These tests were performed for the full-scale geometry and atmospheric conditions. Upon making additional improvements to the shape optimization tools, a series of trailing edge additions were designed to optimize power generation. The trailing edge additions were predicted to increase the AEP by up to 4.2% at the White Field site. The pieces were rapid-prototyped and installed on the wind turbine in March, 2014. Field tests are ongoing.

A hybrid indoor ambient light and vibration energy harvester for wireless sensor nodes.

PubMed

Yu, Hua; Yue, Qiuqin; Zhou, Jielin; Wang, Wei

2014-05-19

To take advantage of applications where both light and vibration energy are available, a hybrid indoor ambient light and vibration energy harvesting scheme is proposed in this paper. This scheme uses only one power conditioning circuit to condition the combined output power harvested from both energy sources so as to reduce the power dissipation. In order to more accurately predict the instantaneous power harvested from the solar panel, an improved five-parameter model for small-scale solar panel applying in low light illumination is presented. The output voltage is increased by using the MEMS piezoelectric cantilever arrays architecture. It overcomes the disadvantage of traditional MEMS vibration energy harvester with low voltage output. The implementation of the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for indoor ambient light is implemented using analog discrete components, which improves the whole harvester efficiency significantly compared to the digital signal processor. The output power of the vibration energy harvester is improved by using the impedance matching technique. An efficient mechanism of energy accumulation and bleed-off is also discussed. Experiment results obtained from an amorphous-silicon (a-Si) solar panel of 4.8 × 2.0 cm2 and a fabricated piezoelectric MEMS generator of 11 × 12.4 mm2 show that the hybrid energy harvester achieves a maximum efficiency around 76.7%.

Towards a More Accurate Solar Power Forecast By Improving NWP Model Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, C.; Lee, D.; Steiner, A.; Ritter, B.

2014-12-01

The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. Precise power forecast, well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The research project EWeLiNE is a collaboration of the German Weather Service (DWD), the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES) and three German transmission system operators (TSOs). Together, wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts shall be improved by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. The conducted work focuses on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. Not only the representation of the model cloud characteristics, but also special events like Sahara dust over Germany and the solar eclipse in 2015 are treated and their effect on solar power accounted for. An overview of the EWeLiNE project and results of the ongoing research will be presented.

Ensemble Learning of QTL Models Improves Prediction of Complex Traits

PubMed Central

Bian, Yang; Holland, James B.

2015-01-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) models can provide useful insights into trait genetic architecture because of their straightforward interpretability but are less useful for genetic prediction because of the difficulty in including the effects of numerous small effect loci without overfitting. Tight linkage between markers introduces near collinearity among marker genotypes, complicating the detection of QTL and estimation of QTL effects in linkage mapping, and this problem is exacerbated by very high density linkage maps. Here we developed a thinning and aggregating (TAGGING) method as a new ensemble learning approach to QTL mapping. TAGGING reduces collinearity problems by thinning dense linkage maps, maintains aspects of marker selection that characterize standard QTL mapping, and by ensembling, incorporates information from many more markers-trait associations than traditional QTL mapping. The objective of TAGGING was to improve prediction power compared with QTL mapping while also providing more specific insights into genetic architecture than genome-wide prediction models. TAGGING was compared with standard QTL mapping using cross validation of empirical data from the maize (Zea mays L.) nested association mapping population. TAGGING-assisted QTL mapping substantially improved prediction ability for both biparental and multifamily populations by reducing both the variance and bias in prediction. Furthermore, an ensemble model combining predictions from TAGGING-assisted QTL and infinitesimal models improved prediction abilities over the component models, indicating some complementarity between model assumptions and suggesting that some trait genetic architectures involve a mixture of a few major QTL and polygenic effects. PMID:26276383

Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

2015-01-01

Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Energy prediction using spatiotemporal pattern networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Zhanhong; Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamical filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. To quantify causal dependencies, a mutual information based metric is presented and an energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. To validate the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated bymore » the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.« less

Predicting the Noise of High Power Fluid Targets Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Michael; Covrig Dusa, Silviu

The 2.5 kW liquid hydrogen (LH2) target used in the Qweak parity violation experiment is the highest power LH2 target in the world and the first to be designed with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) at Jefferson Lab. The Qweak experiment determined the weak charge of the proton by measuring the parity-violating elastic scattering asymmetry of longitudinally polarized electrons from unpolarized liquid hydrogen at small momentum transfer (Q2 = 0 . 025 GeV2). This target satisfied the design goals of < 1 % luminosity reduction and < 5 % contribution to the total asymmetry width (the Qweak target achieved 2 % or 55ppm). State of the art time dependent CFD simulations are being developed to improve the predictions of target noise on the time scale of the electron beam helicity period. These predictions will be bench-marked with the Qweak target data. This work is an essential component in future designs of very high power low noise targets like MOLLER (5 kW, target noise asymmetry contribution < 25 ppm) and MESA (4.5 kW).

Effects of phase vector and history extension on prediction power of adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for a real scale anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state.

PubMed

Perendeci, Altinay; Arslan, Sever; Tanyolaç, Abdurrahman; Celebi, Serdar S

2009-10-01

A conceptual neural fuzzy model based on adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, was proposed using available input on-line and off-line operational variables for a sugar factory anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state to estimate the effluent chemical oxygen demand, COD. The predictive power of the developed model was improved as a new approach by adding the phase vector and the recent values of COD up to 5-10 days, longer than overall retention time of wastewater in the system. History of last 10 days for COD effluent with two-valued phase vector in the input variable matrix including all parameters had more predictive power. History of 7 days with two-valued phase vector in the matrix comprised of only on-line variables yielded fairly well estimations. The developed ANFIS model with phase vector and history extension has been able to adequately represent the behavior of the treatment system.

Blade tip, finite aspect ratio, and dynamic stall effects on the Darrieus rotor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paraschivoiu, I.; Desy, P.; Masson, C.

1988-02-01

The objective of the work described in this paper was to apply the Boeing-Vertol dynamic stall model in an asymmetric manner to account for the asymmetry of the flow between the left and right sides of the rotor. This phenomenon has been observed by the flow visualization of a two-straight-bladed Darrieus rotor in the IMST water tunnel. Also introduced into the aerodynamic model are the effects of the blade tip and finite aspect ratio on the aerodynamic performance of the Darrieus wind turbine. These improvements are compatible with the double-multiple-streamtube model and have been included in the CARDAAV computer code for predicting the aerodynamic performance. Very good agreement has been observed between the test data (Sandia 17 m) and theoretical predictions; a significant improvement over the previous dynamic stall model was obtained for the rotor power at low tip speed ratios, while the inclusion of the finite aspect ratio effects enhances the prediction of the rotor power for high tip speed ratios. The tip losses and finite aspect ratio effects were also calculated for a small-scale vertical-axis wind turbine, with a two-straight-bladed (NACA 0015) rotor.

Power Relative to Body Mass Best Predicts Change in Core Temperature During Exercise-Heat Stress.

PubMed

Gibson, Oliver R; Willmott, Ashley G B; James, Carl A; Hayes, Mark; Maxwell, Neil S

2017-02-01

Gibson, OR, Willmott, AGB, James, CA, Hayes, M, and Maxwell, NS. Power relative to body mass best predicts change in core temperature during exercise-heat stress. J Strength Cond Res 31(2): 403-414, 2017-Controlling internal temperature is crucial when prescribing exercise-heat stress, particularly during interventions designed to induce thermoregulatory adaptations. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the rate of rectal temperature (Trec) increase, and various methods for prescribing exercise-heat stress, to identify the most efficient method of prescribing isothermic heat acclimation (HA) training. Thirty-five men cycled in hot conditions (40° C, 39% R.H.) for 29 ± 2 minutes. Subjects exercised at 60 ± 9% V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak, with methods for prescribing exercise retrospectively observed for each participant. Pearson product moment correlations were calculated for each prescriptive variable against the rate of change in Trec (° C·h), with stepwise multiple regressions performed on statistically significant variables (p ≤ 0.05). Linear regression identified the predicted intensity required to increase Trec by 1.0-2.0° C between 20- and 45-minute periods and the duration taken to increase Trec by 1.5° C in response to incremental intensities to guide prescription. Significant (p ≤ 0.05) relationships with the rate of change in Trec were observed for prescriptions based on relative power (W·kg; r = 0.764), power (%Powermax; r = 0.679), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (r = 0.577), V[Combining Dot Above]O2 (%V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak; r = 0.562), heart rate (HR) (%HRmax; r = 0.534), and thermal sensation (r = 0.311). Stepwise multiple regressions observed relative power and RPE as variables to improve the model (r = 0.791), with no improvement after inclusion of any anthropometric variable. Prescription of exercise under heat stress using power (W·kg or %Powermax) has the strongest relationship with the rate of change in Trec with no additional requirement to correct for body composition within a normal range. Practitioners should therefore prescribe exercise intensity using relative power during isothermic HA training to increase Trec efficiently and maximize adaptation.

Improved Genetic Profiling of Anthropometric Traits Using a Big Data Approach.

PubMed

Canela-Xandri, Oriol; Rawlik, Konrad; Woolliams, John A; Tenesa, Albert

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) promised to translate their findings into clinically beneficial improvements of patient management by tailoring disease management to the individual through the prediction of disease risk. However, the ability to translate genetic findings from GWAS into predictive tools that are of clinical utility and which may inform clinical practice has, so far, been encouraging but limited. Here we propose to use a more powerful statistical approach, the use of which has traditionally been limited due to computational requirements and lack of sufficiently large individual level genotyped cohorts, but which improve the prediction of multiple medically relevant phenotypes using the same panel of SNPs. As a proof of principle, we used a shared panel of 319,038 common SNPs with MAF > 0.05 to train the prediction models in 114,264 unrelated White-British individuals for height and four obesity related traits (body mass index, basal metabolic rate, body fat percentage, and waist-to-hip ratio). We obtained prediction accuracies that ranged between 46% and 75% of the maximum achievable given the captured heritable component. For height, this represents an improvement in prediction accuracy of up to 68% (184% more phenotypic variance explained) over SNPs reported to be robustly associated with height in a previous GWAS meta-analysis of similar size. Across-population predictions in White non-British individuals were similar to those in White-British whilst those in Asian and Black individuals were informative but less accurate. We estimate that the genotyping of circa 500,000 unrelated individuals will yield predictions between 66% and 82% of the SNP-heritability captured by common variants in our array. Prediction accuracies did not improve when including rarer SNPs or when fitting multiple traits jointly in multivariate models.

Financial technical indicator based on chaotic bagging predictors for adaptive stock selection in Japanese and American markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoya; Ohkura, Yuushi

2016-01-01

In order to examine the predictability and profitability of financial markets, we introduce three ideas to improve the traditional technical analysis to detect investment timings more quickly. Firstly, a nonlinear prediction model is considered as an effective way to enhance this detection power by learning complex behavioral patterns hidden in financial markets. Secondly, the bagging algorithm can be applied to quantify the confidence in predictions and compose new technical indicators. Thirdly, we also introduce how to select more profitable stocks to improve investment performance by the two-step selection: the first step selects more predictable stocks during the learning period, and then the second step adaptively and dynamically selects the most confident stock showing the most significant technical signal in each investment. Finally, some investment simulations based on real financial data show that these ideas are successful in overcoming complex financial markets.

Forecasting ozone concentrations in the east of Croatia using nonparametric Neural Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovač-Andrić, Elvira; Sheta, Alaa; Faris, Hossam; Gajdošik, Martina Šrajer

2016-07-01

Ozone is one of the most significant secondary pollutants with numerous negative effects on human health and environment including plants and vegetation. Therefore, more effort is made recently by governments and associations to predict ozone concentrations which could help in establishing better plans and regulation for environment protection. In this study, we use two Artificial Neural Network based approaches (MPL and RBF) to develop, for the first time, accurate ozone prediction models, one for urban and another one for rural area in the eastern part of Croatia. The evaluation of actual against the predicted ozone concentrations revealed that MLP and RBF models are very competitive for the training and testing data in the case of Kopački Rit area whereas in the case of Osijek city, MLP shows better evaluation results with 9% improvement in the correlation coefficient. Furthermore, subsequent feature selection process has improved the prediction power of RBF network.

Study on model current predictive control method of PV grid- connected inverters systems with voltage sag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, N.; Yang, F.; Shang, S. Y.; Tao, T.; Liu, J. S.

2016-08-01

According to the limitations of the LVRT technology of traditional photovoltaic inverter existed, this paper proposes a low voltage ride through (LVRT) control method based on model current predictive control (MCPC). This method can effectively improve the photovoltaic inverter output characteristics and response speed. The MCPC method of photovoltaic grid-connected inverter designed, the sum of the absolute value of the predictive current and the given current error is adopted as the cost function with the model predictive control method. According to the MCPC, the optimal space voltage vector is selected. Photovoltaic inverter has achieved automatically switches of priority active or reactive power control of two control modes according to the different operating states, which effectively improve the inverter capability of LVRT. The simulation and experimental results proves that the proposed method is correct and effective.

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-09-29

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients.

Examination of CRISPR/Cas9 design tools and the effect of target site accessibility on Cas9 activity.

PubMed

Lee, Ciaran M; Davis, Timothy H; Bao, Gang

2018-04-01

What is the topic of this review? In this review, we analyse the performance of recently described tools for CRISPR/Cas9 guide RNA design, in particular, design tools that predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity. What advances does it highlight? Recently, many tools designed to predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity have been reported. However, the majority of these tools lack experimental validation. Our analyses indicate that these tools have poor predictive power. Our preliminary results suggest that target site accessibility should be considered in order to develop better guide RNA design tools with improved predictive power. The recent adaptation of the clustered regulatory interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9) system for targeted genome engineering has led to its widespread application in many fields worldwide. In order to gain a better understanding of the design rules of CRISPR/Cas9 systems, several groups have carried out large library-based screens leading to some insight into sequence preferences among highly active target sites. To facilitate CRISPR/Cas9 design, these studies have spawned a plethora of guide RNA (gRNA) design tools with algorithms based solely on direct or indirect sequence features. Here, we demonstrate that the predictive power of these tools is poor, suggesting that sequence features alone cannot accurately inform the cutting efficiency of a particular CRISPR/Cas9 gRNA design. Furthermore, we demonstrate that DNA target site accessibility influences the activity of CRISPR/Cas9. With further optimization, we hypothesize that it will be possible to increase the predictive power of gRNA design tools by including both sequence and target site accessibility metrics. © 2017 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients. PMID:29100405

Realistic Specific Power Expectations for Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee S.

2006-01-01

Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being considered for a wide range of future NASA space science and exploration missions. Generally, RPS offer the advantages of high reliability, long life, and predictable power production regardless of operating environment. Previous RPS, in the form of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG), have been used successfully on many NASA missions including Apollo, Viking, Voyager, and Galileo. NASA is currently evaluating design options for the next generation of RPS. Of particular interest is the use of advanced, higher efficiency power conversion to replace the previous thermoelectric devices. Higher efficiency reduces the quantity of radioisotope fuel and potentially improves the RPS specific power (watts per kilogram). Power conversion options include Segmented Thermoelectric (STE), Stirling, Brayton, and Thermophotovoltaic (TPV). This paper offers an analysis of the advanced 100 watt-class RPS options and provides credible projections for specific power. Based on the analysis presented, RPS specific power values greater than 10 W/kg appear unlikely.

Flight evaluation of the transonic stability and control characteristics of an airplane incorporating a supercritical wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matheny, N. W.; Gatlin, D. H.

1978-01-01

A TF-8A airplane was equipped with a transport type supercritical wing and fuselage fairings to evaluate predicted performance improvements for cruise at transonic speeds. A comparison of aerodynamic derivatives extracted from flight and wind tunnel data showed that static longitudinal stability, effective dihedral, and aileron effectiveness, were higher than predicted. The static directional stability derivative was slower than predicted. The airplane's handling qualities were acceptable with the stability augmentation system on. The unaugmented airplane exhibited some adverse lateral directional characteristics that involved low Dutch roll damping and low roll control power at high angles of attack and roll control power that was greater than satisfactory for transport aircraft at cruise conditions. Longitudinally, the aircraft exhibited a mild pitchup tendency. Leading edge vortex generators delayed the onset of flow separation, moving the pitchup point to a higher lift coefficient and reducing its severity.

Unified Sequence-Based Association Tests Allowing for Multiple Functional Annotations and Meta-analysis of Noncoding Variation in Metabochip Data.

PubMed

He, Zihuai; Xu, Bin; Lee, Seunggeun; Ionita-Laza, Iuliana

2017-09-07

Substantial progress has been made in the functional annotation of genetic variation in the human genome. Integrative analysis that incorporates such functional annotations into sequencing studies can aid the discovery of disease-associated genetic variants, especially those with unknown function and located outside protein-coding regions. Direct incorporation of one functional annotation as weight in existing dispersion and burden tests can suffer substantial loss of power when the functional annotation is not predictive of the risk status of a variant. Here, we have developed unified tests that can utilize multiple functional annotations simultaneously for integrative association analysis with efficient computational techniques. We show that the proposed tests significantly improve power when variant risk status can be predicted by functional annotations. Importantly, when functional annotations are not predictive of risk status, the proposed tests incur only minimal loss of power in relation to existing dispersion and burden tests, and under certain circumstances they can even have improved power by learning a weight that better approximates the underlying disease model in a data-adaptive manner. The tests can be constructed with summary statistics of existing dispersion and burden tests for sequencing data, therefore allowing meta-analysis of multiple studies without sharing individual-level data. We applied the proposed tests to a meta-analysis of noncoding rare variants in Metabochip data on 12,281 individuals from eight studies for lipid traits. By incorporating the Eigen functional score, we detected significant associations between noncoding rare variants in SLC22A3 and low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol, associations that are missed by standard dispersion and burden tests. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cohort-specific imputation of gene expression improves prediction of warfarin dose for African Americans.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Assaf; Daneshjou, Roxana; DeGorter, Marianne; Bourgeois, Stephane; Svensson, Peter J; Wadelius, Mia; Deloukas, Panos; Montgomery, Stephen B; Altman, Russ B

2017-11-24

Genome-wide association studies are useful for discovering genotype-phenotype associations but are limited because they require large cohorts to identify a signal, which can be population-specific. Mapping genetic variation to genes improves power and allows the effects of both protein-coding variation as well as variation in expression to be combined into "gene level" effects. Previous work has shown that warfarin dose can be predicted using information from genetic variation that affects protein-coding regions. Here, we introduce a method that improves dose prediction by integrating tissue-specific gene expression. In particular, we use drug pathways and expression quantitative trait loci knowledge to impute gene expression-on the assumption that differential expression of key pathway genes may impact dose requirement. We focus on 116 genes from the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic pathways of warfarin within training and validation sets comprising both European and African-descent individuals. We build gene-tissue signatures associated with warfarin dose in a cohort-specific manner and identify a signature of 11 gene-tissue pairs that significantly augments the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium dosage-prediction algorithm in both populations. Our results demonstrate that imputed expression can improve dose prediction and bridge population-specific compositions. MATLAB code is available at https://github.com/assafgo/warfarin-cohort.

Development of a dual-field heteropoplar power converter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenhaure, D. B.; Johnson, B.; Bliamptis, T.; St. George, E.

1981-01-01

The design and testing of a 400 watt, dual phase, dual rotor, field modulated inductor alternator is described. The system is designed for use as a flywheel to ac utility line or flywheel to dc bus (electric vehicle) power converter. The machine is unique in that it uses dual rotors and separately controlled fields to produce output current and voltage which are in phase with each other. Having the voltage and current in phase allows the power electronics to be made of simple low cost components. Based on analytical predictions and experimental results, development of a complete 22 kilowatt (30 Hp) power conversion system is recommended. This system would include power electronics and controls and would replace the inductor alternator with an improved electromagnetic conversion system.

Kinematic Mechanisms of How Power Training Improves Healthy Old Adults' Gait Velocity.

PubMed

Beijersbergen, Chantal M I; Granacher, Urs; Gäbler, Martijn; Devita, Paul; Hortobágyi, Tibor

2017-01-01

Slow gait predicts many adverse clinical outcomes in old adults, but the mechanisms of how power training can minimize the age-related loss of gait velocity is unclear. We examined the effects of 10 wk of lower extremity power training and detraining on healthy old adults' lower extremity muscle power and gait kinematics. As part of the Potsdam Gait Study, participants started with 10 wk of power training followed by 10 wk of detraining (n = 16), and participants started with a 10-wk control period followed by 10 wk of power training (n = 16). We measured gait kinematics (stride characteristic and joint kinematics) and isokinetic power of the ankle plantarflexor (20°·s, 40°·s, and 60°·s) and knee extensor and flexor (60°·s, 120°·s, and 180°·s) muscles at weeks 0, 10, and 20. Power training improved isokinetic muscle power by ~30% (P ≤ 0.001) and fast (5.9%, P < 0.05) but not habitual gait velocity. Ankle plantarflexor velocity measured during gait at fast pace decreased by 7.9% (P < 0.05). The changes isokinetic muscle power and joint kinematics did not correlate with increases in fast gait velocity. The mechanisms that increased fast gait velocity involved higher cadence (r = 0.86, P ≤ 0.001) rather than longer strides (r = 0.49, P = 0.066). Detraining did not reverse the training-induced increases in muscle power and fast gait velocity. Because increases in muscle power and modifications in joint kinematics did not correlate with increases in fast gait velocity, kinematic mechanisms seem to play a minor role in improving healthy old adults' fast gait velocity after power training.

Improved safety of retinal photocoagulation with a shaped beam and modulated pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sramek, Christopher; Brown, Jefferson; Paulus, Yannis M.; Nomoto, Hiroyuki; Palanker, Daniel

2010-02-01

Shorter pulse durations help confine thermal damage during retinal photocoagulation, decrease treatment time and minimize pain. However, safe therapeutic window (the ratio of threshold powers for rupture and mild coagulation) decreases with shorter exposures. A ring-shaped beam enables safer photocoagulation than conventional beams by reducing the maximum temperature in the center of the spot. Similarly, a temporal pulse modulation decreasing its power over time improves safety by maintaining constant temperature for a significant portion of the pulse. Optimization of the beam and pulse shapes was performed using a computational model. In vivo experiments were performed to verify the predicted improvement. With each of these approaches, the pulse duration can be decreased by a factor of two, from 20 ms down to 10 ms while maintaining the same therapeutic window.

Comprehensive lipid analysis: a powerful metanomic tool for predictive and diagnostic medicine.

PubMed

Watkins, S M

2000-09-01

The power and accuracy of predictive diagnostics stand to improve dramatically as a result of lipid metanomics. The high definition of data obtained with this approach allows multiple rather than single metabolites to be used in markers for a group. Since as many as 40 fatty acids are quantified from each lipid class, and up to 15 lipid classes can be quantified easily, more than 600 individual lipid metabolites can be measured routinely for each sample. Because these analyses are comprehensive, only the most appropriate and unique metabolites are selected for their predictive value. Thus, comprehensive lipid analysis promises to greatly improve predictive diagnostics for phenotypes that directly or peripherally involve lipids. A broader and possibly more exciting aspect of this technology is the generation of metabolic profiles that are not simply markers for disease, but metabolic maps that can be used to identify specific genes or activities that cause or influence the disease state. Metanomics is, in essence, functional genomics from metabolite analysis. By defining the metabolic basis for phenotype, researchers and clinicians will have an extraordinary opportunity to understand and treat disease. Much in the same way that gene chips allow researchers to observe the complex expression response to a stimulus, metanomics will enable researchers to observe the complex metabolic interplay responsible for defining phenotype. By extending this approach beyond the observation of individual dysregulations, medicine will begin to profile not single diseases, but health. As health is the proper balance of all vital metabolic pathways, comprehensive or metanomic analysis lends itself very well to identifying the metabolite distributions necessary for optimum health. Comprehensive and quantitative analysis of lipids would provide this degree of diagnostic power to researchers and clinicians interested in mining metabolic profiles for biological meaning.

Neurophysiologic predictors of response to atomoxetine in young adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a pilot project.

PubMed

Leuchter, Andrew F; McGough, James J; Korb, Alexander S; Hunter, Aimee M; Glaser, Paul E A; Deldar, Ahmed; Durell, Todd M; Cook, Ian A

2014-07-01

Atomoxetine is a non-stimulant medication with sustained benefit throughout the day, and is a useful pharmacologic treatment option for young adults with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). It is difficult to determine, however, those patients for whom atomoxetine will be both effective and advantageous. Patients may need to take the medication for several weeks before therapeutic benefit is apparent, so a biomarker that could predict atomoxetine effectiveness early in the course of treatment could be clinically useful. There has been increased interest in the study of thalamocortical oscillatory activity using quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) as a biomarker in ADHD. In this study, we investigated qEEG absolute power, relative power, and cordance, which have been shown to predict response to reuptake inhibitor antidepressants in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), as potential predictors of response to atomoxetine. Forty-four young adults with ADHD (ages 18-30) enrolled in a multi-site, double-blind placebo-controlled study of the effectiveness of atomoxetine and underwent serial qEEG recordings at pretreatment baseline and one week after the start of medication. qEEG measures were calculated from a subset of the sample (N = 29) that provided useable qEEG recordings. Left temporoparietal cordance in the theta frequency band after one week of treatment was associated with ADHD symptom improvement and quality of life measured at 12 weeks in atomoxetine-treated subjects, but not in those treated with placebo. Neither absolute nor relative power measures selectively predicted improvement in medication-treated subjects. Measuring theta cordance after one week of treatment could be useful in predicting atomoxetine treatment response in adult ADHD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acoustic and Lexical Representations for Affect Prediction in Spontaneous Conversations.

PubMed

Cao, Houwei; Savran, Arman; Verma, Ragini; Nenkova, Ani

2015-01-01

In this article we investigate what representations of acoustics and word usage are most suitable for predicting dimensions of affect|AROUSAL, VALANCE, POWER and EXPECTANCY|in spontaneous interactions. Our experiments are based on the AVEC 2012 challenge dataset. For lexical representations, we compare corpus-independent features based on psychological word norms of emotional dimensions, as well as corpus-dependent representations. We find that corpus-dependent bag of words approach with mutual information between word and emotion dimensions is by far the best representation. For the analysis of acoustics, we zero in on the question of granularity. We confirm on our corpus that utterance-level features are more predictive than word-level features. Further, we study more detailed representations in which the utterance is divided into regions of interest (ROI), each with separate representation. We introduce two ROI representations, which significantly outperform less informed approaches. In addition we show that acoustic models of emotion can be improved considerably by taking into account annotator agreement and training the model on smaller but reliable dataset. Finally we discuss the potential for improving prediction by combining the lexical and acoustic modalities. Simple fusion methods do not lead to consistent improvements over lexical classifiers alone but improve over acoustic models.

A distributed big data storage and data mining framework for solar-generated electricity quantity forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianzong; Chen, Yanjun; Hua, Rui; Wang, Peng; Fu, Jia

2012-02-01

Photovoltaic is a method of generating electrical power by converting solar radiation into direct current electricity using semiconductors that exhibit the photovoltaic effect. Photovoltaic power generation employs solar panels composed of a number of solar cells containing a photovoltaic material. Due to the growing demand for renewable energy sources, the manufacturing of solar cells and photovoltaic arrays has advanced considerably in recent years. Solar photovoltaics are growing rapidly, albeit from a small base, to a total global capacity of 40,000 MW at the end of 2010. More than 100 countries use solar photovoltaics. Driven by advances in technology and increases in manufacturing scale and sophistication, the cost of photovoltaic has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured. Net metering and financial incentives, such as preferential feed-in tariffs for solar-generated electricity; have supported solar photovoltaics installations in many countries. However, the power that generated by solar photovoltaics is affected by the weather and other natural factors dramatically. To predict the photovoltaic energy accurately is of importance for the entire power intelligent dispatch in order to reduce the energy dissipation and maintain the security of power grid. In this paper, we have proposed a big data system--the Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting System, called SPPFS to calculate and predict the power according the real-time conditions. In this system, we utilized the distributed mixed database to speed up the rate of collecting, storing and analysis the meteorological data. In order to improve the accuracy of power prediction, the given neural network algorithm has been imported into SPPFS.By adopting abundant experiments, we shows that the framework can provide higher forecast accuracy-error rate less than 15% and obtain low latency of computing by deploying the mixed distributed database architecture for solar-generated electricity.

Agility performance in high-level junior basketball players: the predictive value of anthropometrics and power qualities.

PubMed

Sisic, Nedim; Jelicic, Mario; Pehar, Miran; Spasic, Miodrag; Sekulic, Damir

2016-01-01

In basketball, anthropometric status is an important factor when identifying and selecting talents, while agility is one of the most vital motor performances. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the influence of anthropometric variables and power capacities on different preplanned agility performances. The participants were 92 high-level, junior-age basketball players (16-17 years of age; 187.6±8.72 cm in body height, 78.40±12.26 kg in body mass), randomly divided into a validation and cross-validation subsample. The predictors set consisted of 16 anthropometric variables, three tests of power-capacities (Sargent-jump, broad-jump and medicine-ball-throw) as predictors. The criteria were three tests of agility: a T-Shape-Test; a Zig-Zag-Test, and a test of running with a 180-degree turn (T180). Forward stepwise multiple regressions were calculated for validation subsamples and then cross-validated. Cross validation included correlations between observed and predicted scores, dependent samples t-test between predicted and observed scores; and Bland Altman graphics. Analysis of the variance identified centres being advanced in most of the anthropometric indices, and medicine-ball-throw (all at P<0.05); with no significant between-position-differences for other studied motor performances. Multiple regression models originally calculated for the validation subsample were then cross-validated, and confirmed for Zig-zag-Test (R of 0.71 and 0.72 for the validation and cross-validation subsample, respectively). Anthropometrics were not strongly related to agility performance, but leg length is found to be negatively associated with performance in basketball-specific agility. Power capacities are confirmed to be an important factor in agility. The results highlighted the importance of sport-specific tests when studying pre-planned agility performance in basketball. The improvement in power capacities will probably result in an improvement in agility in basketball athletes, while anthropometric indices should be used in order to identify those athletes who can achieve superior agility performance.

Experimental evaluation of the power balance model of speed skating.

PubMed

de Koning, Jos J; Foster, Carl; Lampen, Joanne; Hettinga, Floor; Bobbert, Maarten F

2005-01-01

Prediction of speed skating performance with a power balance model requires assumptions about the kinetics of energy production, skating efficiency, and skating technique. The purpose of this study was to evaluate these parameters during competitive imitations for the purpose of improving model predictions. Elite speed skaters (n = 8) performed races and submaximal efficiency tests. External power output (P(o)) was calculated from movement analysis and aerodynamic models and ice friction measurements. Aerobic kinetics was calculated from breath-by-breath oxygen uptake (Vo(2)). Aerobic power (P(aer)) was calculated from measured skating efficiency. Anaerobic power (P(an)) kinetics was determined by subtracting P(aer) from P(o). We found gross skating efficiency to be 15.8% (1.8%). In the 1,500-m event, the kinetics of P(an) was characterized by a first-order system as P(an) = 88 + 556e(-0.0494t) (in W, where t is time). The rate constant for the increase in P(aer) was -0.153 s(-1), the time delay was 8.7 s, and the peak P(aer) was 234 W; P(aer) was equal to 234[1 - e(-0.153(t-8.7))] (in W). Skating position changed with preextension knee angle increasing and trunk angle decreasing throughout the event. We concluded the pattern of P(aer) to be quite similar to that reported during other competitive imitations, with the exception that the increase in P(aer) was more rapid. The pattern of P(an) does not appear to fit an "all-out" pattern, with near zero values during the last portion of the event, as assumed in our previous model (De Koning JJ, de Groot G, and van Ingen Schenau GJ. J Biomech 25: 573-580, 1992). Skating position changed in ways different from those assumed in our previous model. In addition to allowing improved predictions, the results demonstrate the importance of observations in unique subjects to the process of model construction.

Development of Multi-physics (Multiphase CFD + MCNP) simulation for generic solution vessel power calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Seung Jun; Buechler, Cynthia Eileen

The current study aims to predict the steady state power of a generic solution vessel and to develop a corresponding heat transfer coefficient correlation for a Moly99 production facility by conducting a fully coupled multi-physics simulation. A prediction of steady state power for the current application is inherently interconnected between thermal hydraulic characteristics (i.e. Multiphase computational fluid dynamics solved by ANSYS-Fluent 17.2) and the corresponding neutronic behavior (i.e. particle transport solved by MCNP6.2) in the solution vessel. Thus, the development of a coupling methodology is vital to understand the system behavior at a variety of system design and postulated operatingmore » scenarios. In this study, we report on the k-effective (keff) calculation for the baseline solution vessel configuration with a selected solution concentration using MCNP K-code modeling. The associated correlation of thermal properties (e.g. density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat) at the selected solution concentration are developed based on existing experimental measurements in the open literature. The numerical coupling methodology between multiphase CFD and MCNP is successfully demonstrated, and the detailed coupling procedure is documented. In addition, improved coupling methods capturing realistic physics in the solution vessel thermal-neutronic dynamics are proposed and tested further (i.e. dynamic height adjustment, mull-cell approach). As a key outcome of the current study, a multi-physics coupling methodology between MCFD and MCNP is demonstrated and tested for four different operating conditions. Those different operating conditions are determined based on the neutron source strength at a fixed geometry condition. The steady state powers for the generic solution vessel at various operating conditions are reported, and a generalized correlation of the heat transfer coefficient for the current application is discussed. The assessment of multi-physics methodology and preliminary results from various coupled calculations (power prediction and heat transfer coefficient) can be further utilized for the system code validation and generic solution vessel design improvement.« less

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive control strategy of a gas turbine for improvement of combined cycle power plant dynamic performance and efficiency.

PubMed

Mohamed, Omar; Wang, Jihong; Khalil, Ashraf; Limhabrash, Marwan

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel strategy for implementing model predictive control (MPC) to a large gas turbine power plant as a part of our research progress in order to improve plant thermal efficiency and load-frequency control performance. A generalized state space model for a large gas turbine covering the whole steady operational range is designed according to subspace identification method with closed loop data as input to the identification algorithm. Then the model is used in developing a MPC and integrated into the plant existing control strategy. The strategy principle is based on feeding the reference signals of the pilot valve, natural gas valve, and the compressor pressure ratio controller with the optimized decisions given by the MPC instead of direct application of the control signals. If the set points for the compressor controller and turbine valves are sent in a timely manner, there will be more kinetic energy in the plant to release faster responses on the output and the overall system efficiency is improved. Simulation results have illustrated the feasibility of the proposed application that has achieved significant improvement in the frequency variations and load following capability which are also translated to be improvements in the overall combined cycle thermal efficiency of around 1.1 % compared to the existing one.

Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics.

PubMed

Ranco, Gabriele; Bordino, Ilaria; Bormetti, Giacomo; Caldarelli, Guido; Lillo, Fabrizio; Treccani, Michele

2016-01-01

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012-2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a "wisdom-of-the-crowd" effect that allows to exploit users' activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment.

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S.

PubMed

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2014-10-16

Multiple studies have developed surface PM 2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM 2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM 2.5 . In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM 2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM 2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM 2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R 2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m 3 , and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m 3 , indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m 3 , exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM 2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events.

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S

PubMed Central

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Multiple studies have developed surface PM2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM2.5. In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m3, and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m3, indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m3, exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events. PMID:28967648

Global proteomics profiling improves drug sensitivity prediction: results from a multi-omics, pan-cancer modeling approach.

PubMed

Ali, Mehreen; Khan, Suleiman A; Wennerberg, Krister; Aittokallio, Tero

2018-04-15

Proteomics profiling is increasingly being used for molecular stratification of cancer patients and cell-line panels. However, systematic assessment of the predictive power of large-scale proteomic technologies across various drug classes and cancer types is currently lacking. To that end, we carried out the first pan-cancer, multi-omics comparative analysis of the relative performance of two proteomic technologies, targeted reverse phase protein array (RPPA) and global mass spectrometry (MS), in terms of their accuracy for predicting the sensitivity of cancer cells to both cytotoxic chemotherapeutics and molecularly targeted anticancer compounds. Our results in two cell-line panels demonstrate how MS profiling improves drug response predictions beyond that of the RPPA or the other omics profiles when used alone. However, frequent missing MS data values complicate its use in predictive modeling and required additional filtering, such as focusing on completely measured or known oncoproteins, to obtain maximal predictive performance. Rather strikingly, the two proteomics profiles provided complementary predictive signal both for the cytotoxic and targeted compounds. Further, information about the cellular-abundance of primary target proteins was found critical for predicting the response of targeted compounds, although the non-target features also contributed significantly to the predictive power. The clinical relevance of the selected protein markers was confirmed in cancer patient data. These results provide novel insights into the relative performance and optimal use of the widely applied proteomic technologies, MS and RPPA, which should prove useful in translational applications, such as defining the best combination of omics technologies and marker panels for understanding and predicting drug sensitivities in cancer patients. Processed datasets, R as well as Matlab implementations of the methods are available at https://github.com/mehr-een/bemkl-rbps. mehreen.ali@helsinki.fi or tero.aittokallio@fimm.fi. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Rotary engine performance limits predicted by a zero-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartrand, Timothy A.; Willis, Edward A.

1992-01-01

A parametric study was performed to determine the performance limits of a rotary combustion engine. This study shows how well increasing the combustion rate, insulating, and turbocharging increase brake power and decrease fuel consumption. Several generalizations can be made from the findings. First, it was shown that the fastest combustion rate is not necessarily the best combustion rate. Second, several engine insulation schemes were employed for a turbocharged engine. Performance improved only for a highly insulated engine. Finally, the variability of turbocompounding and the influence of exhaust port shape were calculated. Rotary engines performance was predicted by an improved zero-dimensional computer model based on a model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1980's. Independent variables in the study include turbocharging, manifold pressures, wall thermal properties, leakage area, and exhaust port geometry. Additions to the computer programs since its results were last published include turbocharging, manifold modeling, and improved friction power loss calculation. The baseline engine for this study is a single rotor 650 cc direct-injection stratified-charge engine with aluminum housings and a stainless steel rotor. Engine maps are provided for the baseline and turbocharged versions of the engine.

Possible Improvements to MCNP6 and its CEM/LAQGSM Event-Generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mashnik, Stepan Georgievich

2015-08-04

This report is intended to the MCNP6 developers and sponsors of MCNP6. It presents a set of suggested possible future improvements to MCNP6 and to its CEM03.03 and LAQGSM03.03 event-generators. A few suggested modifications of MCNP6 are quite simple, aimed at avoiding possible problems with running MCNP6 on various computers, i.e., these changes are not expected to change or improve any results, but should make the use of MCNP6 easier; such changes are expected to require limited man-power resources. On the other hand, several other suggested improvements require a serious further development of nuclear reaction models, are expected to improvemore » significantly the predictive power of MCNP6 for a number of nuclear reactions; but, such developments require several years of work by real experts on nuclear reactions.« less

Whose intentions predict? Power over condom use within heterosexual dyads.

PubMed

VanderDrift, Laura E; Agnew, Christopher R; Harvey, S Marie; Warren, Jocelyn T

2013-10-01

According to major theories of behavioral prediction, the most proximal psychological predictor of an individual's behavior is that individual's intention. With respect to interdependent behaviors such as condom use, however, relationship dynamics influence individuals' power to make decisions and to act. The current study examines how relationship dynamics impact 3 condom use relevant outcomes: (a) the individual forming his or her own intention to use condoms, (b) the couple forming their joint intention to use condoms, and (c) actual condom use behavior. We conducted a 2-wave longitudinal study of young heterosexual adult couples at high risk for HIV infection involving the collection of both individual- and couple-derived data. Results demonstrate the importance of both person (e.g., biological sex and dispositional dominance) and relational (e.g., relational power and amount of interest in the relationship, operationalized as commitment and perceived alternatives to the relationship) factors in predicting condom use intentions and behavior. Individuals who are lower in dispositional dominance are likely to incorporate their partner's intentions into their own individual intentions; the intentions of individuals who have less interest in the relationship are more highly predictive of the couple's joint intention; and the intentions of men and individuals higher in relationship power are more likely to exert a direct influence on condom use. These findings have implications for improving the health of high-risk individuals, including suggesting situations in which individuals are highly influenced by their partners' intentions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

2015-08-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature;more » (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

A Comparison of Synoptic Classification Methods for Application to Wind Power Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, P.; Basu, S.

2008-12-01

Wind energy is a highly variable resource. To make it competitive with other sources of energy for integration on the power grid, at the very least, a day-ahead forecast of power output must be available. In many grid operations worldwide, next-day power output is scheduled in 30 minute intervals and grid management routinely occurs at real time. Maintenance and repairs require costly time to complete and must be scheduled along with normal operations. Revenue is dependent on the reliability of the entire system. In other words, there is financial and managerial benefit to short-term prediction of wind power. One approach to short-term forecasting is to combine a data centric method such as an artificial neural network with a physically based approach like numerical weather prediction (NWP). The key is in associating high-dimensional NWP model output with the most appropriately trained neural network. Because neural networks perform the best in the situations they are designed for, one can hypothesize that if one can identify similar recurring states in historical weather data, this data can be used to train multiple custom designed neural networks to be used when called upon by numerical prediction. Identifying similar recurring states may offer insight to how a neural network forecast can be improved, but amassing the knowledge and utilizing it efficiently in the time required for power prediction would be difficult for a human to master, thus showing the advantage of classification. Classification methods are important tools for short-term forecasting because they can be unsupervised, objective, and computationally quick. They primarily involve categorizing data sets in to dominant weather classes, but there are numerous ways to define a class and a great variety in interpretation of the results. In the present study a collection of classification methods are used on a sampling of atmospheric variables from the North American Regional Reanalysis data set. The results will be discussed in relation to their use for short-term wind power forecasting by neural networks.

Economic evaluation for use of advanced welding equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, P. Y.; Alekseev, I. V.; Kolesnik, E. A.

2017-10-01

Stable and sustainable predicted development of industrial enterprises within global competition is ensured by regular improvement of technologies and introduction of innovative technological equipment. In terms of comparative analysis of the various power supplies application in the welding production, the equality of relative resource efficiency of various equipment and specific economic effect has been calculated. The research showed that the costs per 1 meter are the smallest for semiautomatic welding in a protective gas environment using inverter power supplies, contributing to the economic benefit during its application.

Flight experience of Solar Mesosphere Explorer's two nickel-cadmium batteries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faber, J.

1985-01-01

The performance of the power system on the solar mesosphere explorer (SME) since launch is discussed. Predictions for continued operation for the rest of the project mission are also discussed. The SME satellite's power system was characterized by both insufficient loading and excessive battery charging during the first year of the mission. These conditions affected battery performance and jeopardized the long-term mission. Increased loading on selected orbits has improved battery performance. Long term projections indicate steadily increasing temperatures for the remainder of the mission.

Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; ...

2015-11-10

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

Low Thrust, Deep Throttling, US/CIS Integrated NTRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culver, Donald W.; Kolganov, Vyacheslav; Rochow, Richard F.

1994-07-01

In 1993 our international team performed a follow-on ``Nuclear Thermal Rocket Engine (NTRE) Extended Life Feasibility Assessment'' study for the Nuclear Propulsion Office (NPO) at NASAs Lewis Research Center. The main purpose of this study was to complete the 1992 study matrix to assess NTRE designs at thrust levels of 22.5, 11.3, and 6.8 tonnes, using Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) reactor technology. An additional Aerojet goal was to continue improving the NTRE concept we had generated. Deep throttling, mission performance optimized engine design parametrics, and reliability/cost enhancing engine system simplifications were studied, because they seem to be the last three basic design improvements sorely needed by post-NERVA NTRE. Deep throttling improves engine life by eliminating damaging thermal and mechanical shocks caused by after-cooling with pulsed coolant flow. Alternately, it improves mission performance with steady flow after-cooling by minimizing reactor over-cooling. Deep throttling also provides a practical transition from high pressures and powers of the high thrust power cycle to the low pressures and powers of our electric power generating mode. Two deep throttling designs are discussed; a workable system that was studied and a simplified system that is recommended for future study. Mission-optimized engine thrust/weight (T/W) and Isp predictions are included along with system flow schemes and concept sketches.

Six Degree-of-Freedom Measurements of Human Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Hernandez, Fidel; Wu, Lyndia C; Yip, Michael C; Laksari, Kaveh; Hoffman, Andrew R; Lopez, Jaime R; Grant, Gerald A; Kleiven, Svein; Camarillo, David B

2015-08-01

This preliminary study investigated whether direct measurement of head rotation improves prediction of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Although many studies have implicated rotation as a primary cause of mTBI, regulatory safety standards use 3 degree-of-freedom (3DOF) translation-only kinematic criteria to predict injury. Direct 6DOF measurements of human head rotation (3DOF) and translation (3DOF) have not been previously available to examine whether additional DOFs improve injury prediction. We measured head impacts in American football, boxing, and mixed martial arts using 6DOF instrumented mouthguards, and predicted clinician-diagnosed injury using 12 existing kinematic criteria and 6 existing brain finite element (FE) criteria. Among 513 measured impacts were the first two 6DOF measurements of clinically diagnosed mTBI. For this dataset, 6DOF criteria were the most predictive of injury, more than 3DOF translation-only and 3DOF rotation-only criteria. Peak principal strain in the corpus callosum, a 6DOF FE criteria, was the strongest predictor, followed by two criteria that included rotation measurements, peak rotational acceleration magnitude and Head Impact Power (HIP). These results suggest head rotation measurements may improve injury prediction. However, more 6DOF data is needed to confirm this evaluation of existing injury criteria, and to develop new criteria that considers directional sensitivity to injury.

Genomic predictive model for recurrence and metastasis development in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Ilda Patrícia; Caramelo, Francisco; Esteves, Luísa; Menoita, Joana; Marques, Francisco; Barroso, Leonor; Miguéis, Jorge; Melo, Joana Barbosa; Carreira, Isabel Marques

2017-10-24

The head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) population consists mainly of high-risk for recurrence and locally advanced stage patients. Increased knowledge of the HNSCC genomic profile can improve early diagnosis and treatment outcomes. The development of models to identify consistent genomic patterns that distinguish HNSCC patients that will recur and/or develop metastasis after treatment is of utmost importance to decrease mortality and improve survival rates. In this study, we used array comparative genomic hybridization data from HNSCC patients to implement a robust model to predict HNSCC recurrence/metastasis. This predictive model showed a good accuracy (>80%) and was validated in an independent population from TCGA data portal. This predictive genomic model comprises chromosomal regions from 5p, 6p, 8p, 9p, 11q, 12q, 15q and 17p, where several upstream and downstream members of signaling pathways that lead to an increase in cell proliferation and invasion are mapped. The introduction of genomic predictive models in clinical practice might contribute to a more individualized clinical management of the HNSCC patients, reducing recurrences and improving patients' quality of life. The power of this genomic model to predict the recurrence and metastases development should be evaluated in other HNSCC populations.

Power System Transient Stability Based on Data Mining Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Shi, Jia; Wu, Runsheng; Lu, Dan; Cui, Mingde

2018-01-01

In order to study the stability of power system, a power system transient stability based on data mining theory is designed. By introducing association rules analysis in data mining theory, an association classification method for transient stability assessment is presented. A mathematical model of transient stability assessment based on data mining technology is established. Meanwhile, combining rule reasoning with classification prediction, the method of association classification is proposed to perform transient stability assessment. The transient stability index is used to identify the samples that cannot be correctly classified in association classification. Then, according to the critical stability of each sample, the time domain simulation method is used to determine the state, so as to ensure the accuracy of the final results. The results show that this stability assessment system can improve the speed of operation under the premise that the analysis result is completely correct, and the improved algorithm can find out the inherent relation between the change of power system operation mode and the change of transient stability degree.

Theoretical Considerations for Improving the Pulse Power of a Battery through the Addition of a Second Electrochemically Active Material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knehr, K. W.; West, Alan C.

Here, porous electrode theory is used to conduct case studies for when the addition of a second electrochemically active material can improve the pulse-power performance of an electrode. Case studies are conducted for the positive electrode of a sodium metal-halide battery and the graphite negative electrode of a lithium “rocking chair” battery. The replacement of a fraction of the nickel chloride capacity with iron chloride in a sodium metal-halide electrode and the replacement of a fraction of the graphite capacity with carbon black in a lithium-ion negative electrode were both predicted to increase the maximum pulse power by up tomore » 40%. In general, whether or not a second electrochemically active material increases the pulse power depends on the relative importance of ohmic-to-charge transfer resistances within the porous structure, the capacity fraction of the second electrochemically active material, and the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of the two active materials.« less

Theoretical Considerations for Improving the Pulse Power of a Battery through the Addition of a Second Electrochemically Active Material

DOE PAGES

Knehr, K. W.; West, Alan C.

2016-05-26

Here, porous electrode theory is used to conduct case studies for when the addition of a second electrochemically active material can improve the pulse-power performance of an electrode. Case studies are conducted for the positive electrode of a sodium metal-halide battery and the graphite negative electrode of a lithium “rocking chair” battery. The replacement of a fraction of the nickel chloride capacity with iron chloride in a sodium metal-halide electrode and the replacement of a fraction of the graphite capacity with carbon black in a lithium-ion negative electrode were both predicted to increase the maximum pulse power by up tomore » 40%. In general, whether or not a second electrochemically active material increases the pulse power depends on the relative importance of ohmic-to-charge transfer resistances within the porous structure, the capacity fraction of the second electrochemically active material, and the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of the two active materials.« less

Analytical study of STOL Aircraft in ground effect. Part 1: Nonplanar, nonlinear wing/jet lifting surface method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shollenberger, C. A.; Smyth, D. N.

1978-01-01

A nonlinear, nonplanar three dimensional jet flap analysis, applicable to the ground effect problem, is presented. Lifting surface methodology is developed for a wing with arbitrary planform operating in an inviscid and incompressible fluid. The classical, infintely thin jet flap model is employed to simulate power induced effects. An iterative solution procedure is applied within the analysis to successively approximate the jet shape until a converged solution is obtained which closely satisfies jet and wing boundary conditions. Solution characteristics of the method are discussed and example results are presented for unpowered, basic powered and complex powered configurations. Comparisons between predictions of the present method and experimental measurements indicate that the improvement of the jet with the ground plane is important in the analyses of powered lift systems operating in ground proximity. Further development of the method is suggested in the areas of improved solution convergence, more realistic modeling of jet impingement and calculation efficiency enhancements.

An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Rajashree

2017-11-01

Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

Power technologies and the space future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faymon, Karl A.; Fordyce, J. Stuart; Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.

1991-01-01

Advancements in space power and energy technologies are critical to serve space development needs and help solve problems on Earth. The availability of low cost power and energy in space will be the hallmark of this advance. Space power will undergo a dramatic change for future space missions. The power systems which have served the U.S. space program so well in the past will not suffice for the missions of the future. This is especially true if the space commercialization is to become a reality. New technologies, and new and different space power architectures and topologies will replace the lower power, low-voltage systems of the past. Efficiencies will be markedly improved, specific powers will be greatly increased, and system lifetimes will be markedly extended. Space power technology is discussed - its past, its current status, and predictions about where it will go in the future. A key problem for power and energy is its cost of affordability. Power must be affordable or it will not serve future needs adequately. This aspect is also specifically addressed.

Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable...

Active optimal control strategies for increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aljoaba, Sharif Zidan Ahmad

Energy consumption has increased drastically during the last century. Currently, the worldwide energy consumption is about 17.4 TW and is predicted to reach 25 TW by 2035. Solar energy has emerged as one of the potential renewable energy sources. Since its first physical recognition in 1887 by Adams and Day till nowadays, research in solar energy is continuously developing. This has lead to many achievements and milestones that introduced it as one of the most reliable and sustainable energy sources. Recently, the International Energy Agency declared that solar energy is predicted to be one of the major electricity production energy sources by 2035. Enhancing the efficiency and lifecycle of photovoltaic (PV) modules leads to significant cost reduction. Reducing the temperature of the PV module improves its efficiency and enhances its lifecycle. To better understand the PV module performance, it is important to study the interaction between the output power and the temperature. A model that is capable of predicting the PV module temperature and its effects on the output power considering the individual contribution of the solar spectrum wavelengths significantly advances the PV module edsigns toward higher efficiency. In this work, a thermoelectrical model is developed to predict the effects of the solar spectrum wavelengths on the PV module performance. The model is characterized and validated under real meteorological conditions where experimental temperature and output power of the PV module measurements are shown to agree with the predicted results. The model is used to validate the concept of active optical filtering. Since this model is wavelength-based, it is used to design an active optical filter for PV applications. Applying this filter to the PV module is expected to increase the output power of the module by filtering the spectrum wavelengths. The active filter performance is optimized, where different cutoff wavelengths are used to maximize the module output power. It is predicted that if the optimized active optical filter is applied to the PV module, the module efficiency is predicted to increase by about 1%. Different technologies are considered for physical implementation of the active optical filter.

Detectability of large-scale power suppression in the galaxy distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibelyou, Cameron; Huterer, Dragan; Fang, Wenjuan

2010-12-01

Suppression in primordial power on the Universe’s largest observable scales has been invoked as a possible explanation for large-angle observations in the cosmic microwave background, and is allowed or predicted by some inflationary models. Here we investigate the extent to which such a suppression could be confirmed by the upcoming large-volume redshift surveys. For definiteness, we study a simple parametric model of suppression that improves the fit of the vanilla ΛCDM model to the angular correlation function measured by WMAP in cut-sky maps, and at the same time improves the fit to the angular power spectrum inferred from the maximum likelihood analysis presented by the WMAP team. We find that the missing power at large scales, favored by WMAP observations within the context of this model, will be difficult but not impossible to rule out with a galaxy redshift survey with large-volume (˜100Gpc3). A key requirement for success in ruling out power suppression will be having redshifts of most galaxies detected in the imaging survey.

Lightweight Radiator for in Space Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craven, Paul; Tomboulian, Briana; SanSoucie, Michael

2014-01-01

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) is a promising option for high-speed in-space travel due to the high energy density of nuclear fission power sources and efficient electric thrusters. Advanced power conversion technologies may require high operating temperatures and would benefit from lightweight radiator materials. Radiator performance dictates power output for nuclear electric propulsion systems. Game-changing propulsion systems are often enabled by novel designs using advanced materials. Pitch-based carbon fiber materials have the potential to offer significant improvements in operating temperature, thermal conductivity, and mass. These properties combine to allow advances in operational efficiency and high temperature feasibility. An effort at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to show that woven high thermal conductivity carbon fiber mats can be used to replace standard metal and composite radiator fins to dissipate waste heat from NEP systems is ongoing. The goals of this effort are to demonstrate a proof of concept, to show that a significant improvement of specific power (power/mass) can be achieved, and to develop a thermal model with predictive capabilities making use of constrained input parameter space. A description of this effort is presented.

Correlation between use time of machine and decline curve for emerging enterprise information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yao-Chung; Lai, Chin-Feng; Chuang, Chi-Cheng; Hou, Cheng-Yu

2018-04-01

With the progress of science and technology, more and more machines are adpot to help human life better and more convenient. When the machines have been used for a longer period of time so that the machine components are getting old, the amount of power comsumption will increase and easily cause the machine to overheat. This also causes a waste of invisible resources. If the Internet of Everything (IoE) technologies are able to be applied into the enterprise information systems for monitoring the machines use time, it can not only make energy can be effectively used, but aslo create a safer living environment. To solve the above problem, the correlation predict model is established to collect the data of power consumption converted into power eigenvalues. This study takes the power eigenvalue as the independent variable and use time as the dependent variable in order to establish the decline curve. Ultimately, the scoring and estimation modules are employed to seek the best power eigenvalue as the independent variable. To predict use time, the correlation is discussed between the use time and the decline curve to improve the entire behavioural analysis of the facilitate recognition of the use time of machines.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-09-26

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

Modeling a constant power load for nickel-hydrogen battery testing using SPICE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bearden, Douglas B.; Lollar, Louis F.; Nelms, R. M.

1990-01-01

The effort to design and model a constant power load for the HST (Hubble Space Telescope) nickel-hydrogen battery tests is described. The constant power load was designed for three different simulations on the batteries: life cycling, reconditioning, and capacity testing. A dc-dc boost converter was designed to act as this constant power load. A boost converter design was chosen because of the low test battery voltage (4 to 6 VDC) generated and the relatively high power requirement of 60 to 70 W. The SPICE model was shown to consistently predict variations in the actual circuit as various designs were attempted. It is concluded that the confidence established in the SPICE model of the constant power load ensures its extensive utilization in future efforts to improve performance in the actual load circuit.

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Using 3D infrared imaging to calibrate and refine computational fluid dynamic modeling for large computer and data centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockton, Gregory R.

2011-05-01

Over the last 10 years, very large government, military, and commercial computer and data center operators have spent millions of dollars trying to optimally cool data centers as each rack has begun to consume as much as 10 times more power than just a few years ago. In fact, the maximum amount of data computation in a computer center is becoming limited by the amount of available power, space and cooling capacity at some data centers. Tens of millions of dollars and megawatts of power are being annually spent to keep data centers cool. The cooling and air flows dynamically change away from any predicted 3-D computational fluid dynamic modeling during construction and as time goes by, and the efficiency and effectiveness of the actual cooling rapidly departs even farther from predicted models. By using 3-D infrared (IR) thermal mapping and other techniques to calibrate and refine the computational fluid dynamic modeling and make appropriate corrections and repairs, the required power for data centers can be dramatically reduced which reduces costs and also improves reliability.

Identification of the Best Anthropometric Predictors of Serum High- and Low-Density Lipoproteins Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Lee, Bum Ju; Kim, Jong Yeol

2015-09-01

Serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels are associated with risk factors for various diseases and are related to anthropometric measures. However, controversy remains regarding the best anthropometric indicators of the HDL and LDL cholesterol levels. The objectives of this study were to identify the best predictors of HDL and LDL cholesterol using statistical analyses and two machine learning algorithms and to compare the predictive power of combined anthropometric measures in Korean adults. A total of 13,014 subjects participated in this study. The anthropometric measures were assessed with binary logistic regression (LR) to evaluate statistically significant differences between the subjects with normal and high LDL cholesterol levels and between the subjects with normal and low HDL cholesterol levels. LR and the naive Bayes algorithm (NB), which provides more reasonable and reliable results, were used in the analyses of the predictive power of individual and combined measures. The best predictor of HDL was the rib to hip ratio (p =< 0.0001; odds ratio (OR) = 1.895; area under curve (AUC) = 0.681) in women and the waist to hip ratio (WHR) (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.624; AUC = 0.633) in men. In women, the strongest indicator of LDL was age (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.662; AUC by NB = 0.653 ; AUC by LR = 0.636). Among the anthropometric measures, the body mass index (BMI), WHR, forehead to waist ratio, forehead to rib ratio, and forehead to chest ratio were the strongest predictors of LDL; these measures had similar predictive powers. The strongest predictor in men was BMI (p =< 0.0001; OR = 1.369; AUC by NB = 0.594; AUC by LR = 0.595 ). The predictive power of almost all individual anthropometric measures was higher for HDL than for LDL, and the predictive power for both HDL and LDL in women was higher than for men. A combination of anthropometric measures slightly improved the predictive power for both HDL and LDL cholesterol. The best indicator for HDL and LDL might differ according to the type of cholesterol and the gender. In women, but not men, age was the variable that strongly predicted HDL and LDL cholesterol levels. Our findings provide new information for the development of better initial screening tools for HDL and LDL cholesterol.

Adjusted Clinical Groups: Predictive Accuracy for Medicaid Enrollees in Three States

PubMed Central

Adams, E. Kathleen; Bronstein, Janet M.; Raskind-Hood, Cheryl

2002-01-01

Actuarial split-sample methods were used to assess predictive accuracy of adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) for Medicaid enrollees in Georgia, Mississippi (lagging in managed care penetration), and California. Accuracy for two non-random groups—high-cost and located in urban poor areas—was assessed. Measures for random groups were derived with and without short-term enrollees to assess the effect of turnover on predictive accuracy. ACGs improved predictive accuracy for high-cost conditions in all States, but did so only for those in Georgia's poorest urban areas. Higher and more unpredictable expenses of short-term enrollees moderated the predictive power of ACGs. This limitation was significant in Mississippi due in part, to that State's very high proportion of short-term enrollees. PMID:12545598

Comparison of Newer IOL Power Calculation Methods for Eyes With Previous Radial Keratotomy

PubMed Central

Ma, Jack X.; Tang, Maolong; Wang, Li; Weikert, Mitchell P.; Huang, David; Koch, Douglas D.

2016-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the accuracy of the optical coherence tomography–based (OCT formula) and Barrett True K (True K) intraocular lens (IOL) calculation formulas in eyes with previous radial keratotomy (RK). Methods In 95 eyes of 65 patients, using the actual refraction following cataract surgery as target refraction, the predicted IOL power for each method was calculated. The IOL prediction error (PE) was obtained by subtracting the predicted IOL power from the implanted IOL power. The arithmetic IOL PE and median refractive PE were calculated and compared. Results All formulas except the True K produced hyperopic IOL PEs at 1 month, which decreased at ≥4 months (all P < 0.05). For the double-K Holladay 1, OCT formula, True K, and average of these three formulas (Average), the median absolute refractive PEs were, respectively, 0.78 diopters (D), 0.74 D, 0.60 D, and 0.59 D at 1 month; 0.69 D, 0.77 D, 0.77 D, and 0.61 D at 2 to 3 months; and 0.34 D, 0.65 D, 0.69 D, and 0.46 D at ≥4 months. The Average produced significantly smaller refractive PE than did the double-K Holladay 1 at 1 month (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in refractive PEs among formulas at 4 months. Conclusions The OCT formula and True K were comparable to the double-K Holladay 1 method on the ASCRS (American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery) calculator. The Average IOL power on the ASCRS calculator may be considered when selecting the IOL power. Further improvements in the accuracy of IOL power calculation in RK eyes are desirable. PMID:27409468

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Kwang S.; Kim, K. H.; Stock, L. V.

1987-01-01

The improvement on the collection system of the Tarmarack Solar Simulator beam was attemped. The basic study of evaluating the solid state laser materials for the solar pumping and also the work to construct a kinetic model algorithm for the flashlamp pumped iodine lasers were carried out. It was observed that the collector cone worked better than the lens assembly in order to collect the solar simulator beam and to focus it down to a strong power density. The study on the various laser materials and their lasing characteristics shows that the neodymium and chromium co-doped gadolinium scandium gallium garnet (Nr:Cr:GSGG) may be a strong candidate for the high power solar pumped solid state laser crystal. On the other hand the improved kinetic modeling for the flashlamp pumped iodine laser provides a good agreement between the theoretical model and the experimental data on the laser power output, and predicts the output parameters of a solar pumped iodine laser.

Supercapacitive microbial fuel cell: Characterization and analysis for improved charge storage/delivery performance.

PubMed

Houghton, Jeremiah; Santoro, Carlo; Soavi, Francesca; Serov, Alexey; Ieropoulos, Ioannis; Arbizzani, Catia; Atanassov, Plamen

2016-10-01

Supercapacitive microbial fuel cells with various anode and cathode dimensions were investigated in order to determine the effect on cell capacitance and delivered power quality. The cathode size was shown to be the limiting component of the system in contrast to anode size. By doubling the cathode area, the peak power output was improved by roughly 120% for a 10ms pulse discharge and internal resistance of the cell was decreased by ∼47%. A model was constructed in order to predict the performance of a hypothetical cylindrical MFC design with larger relative cathode size. It was found that a small device based on conventional materials with a volume of approximately 21cm(3) would be capable of delivering a peak power output of approximately 25mW at 70mA, corresponding to ∼1300Wm(-3). Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Small angle X-ray scattering and cross-linking for data assisted protein structure prediction in CASP 12 with prospects for improved accuracy.

PubMed

Ogorzalek, Tadeusz L; Hura, Greg L; Belsom, Adam; Burnett, Kathryn H; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tainer, John A; Rappsilber, Juri; Tsutakawa, Susan E; Fidelis, Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Experimental data offers empowering constraints for structure prediction. These constraints can be used to filter equivalently scored models or more powerfully within optimization functions toward prediction. In CASP12, Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) and Cross-Linking Mass Spectrometry (CLMS) data, measured on an exemplary set of novel fold targets, were provided to the CASP community of protein structure predictors. As solution-based techniques, SAXS and CLMS can efficiently measure states of the full-length sequence in its native solution conformation and assembly. However, this experimental data did not substantially improve prediction accuracy judged by fits to crystallographic models. One issue, beyond intrinsic limitations of the algorithms, was a disconnect between crystal structures and solution-based measurements. Our analyses show that many targets had substantial percentages of disordered regions (up to 40%) or were multimeric or both. Thus, solution measurements of flexibility and assembly support variations that may confound prediction algorithms trained on crystallographic data and expecting globular fully-folded monomeric proteins. Here, we consider the CLMS and SAXS data collected, the information in these solution measurements, and the challenges in incorporating them into computational prediction. As improvement opportunities were only partly realized in CASP12, we provide guidance on how data from the full-length biological unit and the solution state can better aid prediction of the folded monomer or subunit. We furthermore describe strategic integrations of solution measurements with computational prediction programs with the aim of substantially improving foundational knowledge and the accuracy of computational algorithms for biologically-relevant structure predictions for proteins in solution. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-mode evaluation of power-maximizing cross-flow turbine controllers

DOE PAGES

Forbush, Dominic; Cavagnaro, Robert J.; Donegan, James; ...

2017-09-21

A general method for predicting and evaluating the performance of three candidate cross-flow turbine power-maximizing controllers is presented in this paper using low-order dynamic simulation, scaled laboratory experiments, and full-scale field testing. For each testing mode and candidate controller, performance metrics quantifying energy capture (ability of a controller to maximize power), variation in torque and rotation rate (related to drive train fatigue), and variation in thrust loads (related to structural fatigue) are quantified for two purposes. First, for metrics that could be evaluated across all testing modes, we considered the accuracy with which simulation or laboratory experiments could predict performancemore » at full scale. Second, we explored the utility of these metrics to contrast candidate controller performance. For these turbines and set of candidate controllers, energy capture was found to only differentiate controller performance in simulation, while the other explored metrics were able to predict performance of the full-scale turbine in the field with various degrees of success. Finally, effects of scale between laboratory and full-scale testing are considered, along with recommendations for future improvements to dynamic simulations and controller evaluation.« less

Multi-mode evaluation of power-maximizing cross-flow turbine controllers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbush, Dominic; Cavagnaro, Robert J.; Donegan, James

A general method for predicting and evaluating the performance of three candidate cross-flow turbine power-maximizing controllers is presented in this paper using low-order dynamic simulation, scaled laboratory experiments, and full-scale field testing. For each testing mode and candidate controller, performance metrics quantifying energy capture (ability of a controller to maximize power), variation in torque and rotation rate (related to drive train fatigue), and variation in thrust loads (related to structural fatigue) are quantified for two purposes. First, for metrics that could be evaluated across all testing modes, we considered the accuracy with which simulation or laboratory experiments could predict performancemore » at full scale. Second, we explored the utility of these metrics to contrast candidate controller performance. For these turbines and set of candidate controllers, energy capture was found to only differentiate controller performance in simulation, while the other explored metrics were able to predict performance of the full-scale turbine in the field with various degrees of success. Finally, effects of scale between laboratory and full-scale testing are considered, along with recommendations for future improvements to dynamic simulations and controller evaluation.« less

Selective attention deficits in obsessive-compulsive disorder: the role of metacognitive processes.

PubMed

Koch, Julia; Exner, Cornelia

2015-02-28

While initial studies supported the hypothesis that cognitive characteristics that capture cognitive resources act as underlying mechanisms in memory deficits in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), the influence of those characteristics on selective attention has not been studied, yet. In this study, we examined the influence of cognitive self-consciousness (CSC), rumination and worrying on performance in selective attention in OCD and compared the results to a depressive and a healthy control group. We found that 36 OCD and 36 depressive participants were impaired in selective attention in comparison to 36 healthy controls. In all groups, hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that age, intelligence and years in school significantly predicted performance in selective attention. But only in OCD, the predictive power of the regression model was improved when CSC, rumination and worrying were implemented as predictor variables. In contrast, in none of the three groups the predictive power improved when indicators of severity of obsessive-compulsive (OC) and depressive symptoms and trait anxiety were introduced as predictor variables. Thus, our results support the assumption that mental characteristics that bind cognitive resources play an important role in the understanding of selective attention deficits in OCD and that this mechanism is especially relevant for OCD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Payne, Rupert A

2012-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major, growing, worldwide problem. It is important that individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular disease can be effectively identified and appropriately stratified according to risk. This review examines what we understand by the term risk, traditional and novel risk factors, clinical scoring systems, and the use of risk for informing prescribing decisions. Many different cardiovascular risk factors have been identified. Established, traditional factors such as ageing are powerful predictors of adverse outcome, and in the case of hypertension and dyslipidaemia are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Numerous novel biomarkers have also been described, such as inflammatory and genetic markers. These have yet to be shown to be of value in improving risk prediction, but may represent potential therapeutic targets and facilitate more targeted use of existing therapies. Risk factors have been incorporated into several cardiovascular disease prediction algorithms, such as the Framingham equation, SCORE and QRISK. These have relatively poor predictive power, and uncertainties remain with regards to aspects such as choice of equation, different risk thresholds and the roles of relative risk, lifetime risk and reversible factors in identifying and treating at-risk individuals. Nonetheless, such scores provide objective and transparent means of quantifying risk and their integration into therapeutic guidelines enables equitable and cost-effective distribution of health service resources and improves the consistency and quality of clinical decision making. PMID:22348281

Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li

With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) can be used as an integrated adaptive learning and confidence interval estimation algorithm for neural networks, with fast convergence and small confidence intervals. However, EKF learning is computationally expensive because it involves high dimensional matrix manipulations. A modified U-D factorization within the decoupled EKF (DEKF-UD) framework is developed in this research. The computational efficiency and numerical stability are significantly improved.

Models for 31-Mode PVDF Energy Harvester for Wearable Applications

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jingjing; You, Zheng

2014-01-01

Currently, wearable electronics are increasingly widely used, leading to an increasing need of portable power supply. As a clean and renewable power source, piezoelectric energy harvester can transfer mechanical energy into electric energy directly, and the energy harvester based on polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) operating in 31-mode is appropriate to harvest energy from human motion. This paper established a series of theoretical models to predict the performance of 31-mode PVDF energy harvester. Among them, the energy storage one can predict the collected energy accurately during the operation of the harvester. Based on theoretical study and experiments investigation, two approaches to improve the energy harvesting performance have been found. Furthermore, experiment results demonstrate the high accuracies of the models, which are better than 95%. PMID:25114981

Classical Mathematical Models for Description and Prediction of Experimental Tumor Growth

PubMed Central

Benzekry, Sébastien; Lamont, Clare; Beheshti, Afshin; Tracz, Amanda; Ebos, John M. L.; Hlatky, Lynn; Hahnfeldt, Philip

2014-01-01

Despite internal complexity, tumor growth kinetics follow relatively simple laws that can be expressed as mathematical models. To explore this further, quantitative analysis of the most classical of these were performed. The models were assessed against data from two in vivo experimental systems: an ectopic syngeneic tumor (Lewis lung carcinoma) and an orthotopically xenografted human breast carcinoma. The goals were threefold: 1) to determine a statistical model for description of the measurement error, 2) to establish the descriptive power of each model, using several goodness-of-fit metrics and a study of parametric identifiability, and 3) to assess the models' ability to forecast future tumor growth. The models included in the study comprised the exponential, exponential-linear, power law, Gompertz, logistic, generalized logistic, von Bertalanffy and a model with dynamic carrying capacity. For the breast data, the dynamics were best captured by the Gompertz and exponential-linear models. The latter also exhibited the highest predictive power, with excellent prediction scores (≥80%) extending out as far as 12 days in the future. For the lung data, the Gompertz and power law models provided the most parsimonious and parametrically identifiable description. However, not one of the models was able to achieve a substantial prediction rate (≥70%) beyond the next day data point. In this context, adjunction of a priori information on the parameter distribution led to considerable improvement. For instance, forecast success rates went from 14.9% to 62.7% when using the power law model to predict the full future tumor growth curves, using just three data points. These results not only have important implications for biological theories of tumor growth and the use of mathematical modeling in preclinical anti-cancer drug investigations, but also may assist in defining how mathematical models could serve as potential prognostic tools in the clinic. PMID:25167199

Classical mathematical models for description and prediction of experimental tumor growth.

PubMed

Benzekry, Sébastien; Lamont, Clare; Beheshti, Afshin; Tracz, Amanda; Ebos, John M L; Hlatky, Lynn; Hahnfeldt, Philip

2014-08-01

Despite internal complexity, tumor growth kinetics follow relatively simple laws that can be expressed as mathematical models. To explore this further, quantitative analysis of the most classical of these were performed. The models were assessed against data from two in vivo experimental systems: an ectopic syngeneic tumor (Lewis lung carcinoma) and an orthotopically xenografted human breast carcinoma. The goals were threefold: 1) to determine a statistical model for description of the measurement error, 2) to establish the descriptive power of each model, using several goodness-of-fit metrics and a study of parametric identifiability, and 3) to assess the models' ability to forecast future tumor growth. The models included in the study comprised the exponential, exponential-linear, power law, Gompertz, logistic, generalized logistic, von Bertalanffy and a model with dynamic carrying capacity. For the breast data, the dynamics were best captured by the Gompertz and exponential-linear models. The latter also exhibited the highest predictive power, with excellent prediction scores (≥80%) extending out as far as 12 days in the future. For the lung data, the Gompertz and power law models provided the most parsimonious and parametrically identifiable description. However, not one of the models was able to achieve a substantial prediction rate (≥70%) beyond the next day data point. In this context, adjunction of a priori information on the parameter distribution led to considerable improvement. For instance, forecast success rates went from 14.9% to 62.7% when using the power law model to predict the full future tumor growth curves, using just three data points. These results not only have important implications for biological theories of tumor growth and the use of mathematical modeling in preclinical anti-cancer drug investigations, but also may assist in defining how mathematical models could serve as potential prognostic tools in the clinic.

A Matter of Classes: Stratifying Health Care Populations to Produce Better Estimates of Inpatient Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B

2005-01-01

Objective To stratify traditional risk-adjustment models by health severity classes in a way that is empirically based, is accessible to policy makers, and improves predictions of inpatient costs. Data Sources Secondary data created from the administrative claims from all 829,356 children aged 21 years and under enrolled in Georgia Medicaid in 1999. Study Design A finite mixture model was used to assign child Medicaid patients to health severity classes. These class assignments were then used to stratify both portions of a traditional two-part risk-adjustment model predicting inpatient Medicaid expenditures. Traditional model results were compared with the stratified model using actuarial statistics. Principal Findings The finite mixture model identified four classes of children: a majority healthy class and three illness classes with increasing levels of severity. Stratifying the traditional two-part risk-adjustment model by health severity classes improved its R2 from 0.17 to 0.25. The majority of additional predictive power resulted from stratifying the second part of the two-part model. Further, the preference for the stratified model was unaffected by months of patient enrollment time. Conclusions Stratifying health care populations based on measures of health severity is a powerful method to achieve more accurate cost predictions. Insurers who ignore the predictive advances of sample stratification in setting risk-adjusted premiums may create strong financial incentives for adverse selection. Finite mixture models provide an empirically based, replicable methodology for stratification that should be accessible to most health care financial managers. PMID:16033501

Interdisciplinary challenges in the study of power grid resilience and stability and their relation to extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heitzig, J.; Fujiwara, N.; Aihara, K.; Kurths, J.

2014-10-01

This topical issue collects contributions to the interdisciplinary study of power grid stability in face of increasing volatility of energy production and consumption due to increasing renewable energy infeed and changing climatic conditions. The individual papers focus on different aspects of this field and bring together modern achievements from various disciplines, in particular complex systems science, nonlinear data analysis, control theory, electrical engineering, and climatology. Main topics considered here are prediction and volatility of renewable infeed, modelling and theoretical analysis of power grid topology, dynamics and stability, relationships between stability and complex network topology, and improvements via topological changes or control. Impacts for the design of smart power grids are discussed in detail.

Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Jeon, Kyeongman; Yoo, Hongseok; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Park, Hye Yun; Koh, Won-Jung; Suh, Gee Young; Guallar, Eliseo

2017-10-01

Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration. The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6). FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

One session of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) every 5 days, improves muscle power but not static balance in lifelong sedentary ageing men

PubMed Central

Sculthorpe, Nicholas F.; Herbert, Peter; Grace, Fergal

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Declining muscle power during advancing age predicts falls and loss of independence. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may improve muscle power, but remains largely unstudied in ageing participants. Methods: This randomized controlled trial (RCT) investigated the efficacy of a low-frequency HIIT (LfHIIT) intervention on peak muscle power (peak power output [PPO]), body composition, and balance in lifelong sedentary but otherwise healthy males. Methods: Thirty-three lifelong sedentary ageing men were randomly assigned to either intervention (INT; n = 22, age 62.3 ± 4.1 years) or control (n = 11, age 61.6 ± 5.0 years) who were both assessed at 3 distinct measurement points (phase A), after 6 weeks of conditioning exercise (phase B), and after 6 weeks of HIIT once every 5 days in INT (phase C), where control remained inactive throughout the study. Results: Static balance remained unaffected, and both absolute and relative PPO were not different between groups at phases A or B, but increased significantly in INT after LfHIIT (P < 0.01). Lean body mass displayed a significant interaction (P < 0.01) due to an increase in INT between phases B and C (P < 0.05). Conclusions: 6 weeks of LfHIIT exercise feasible and effective method to induce clinically relevant improvements in absolute and relative PPO, but does not improve static balance in sedentary ageing men. PMID:28178145

One session of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) every 5 days, improves muscle power but not static balance in lifelong sedentary ageing men: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Sculthorpe, Nicholas F; Herbert, Peter; Grace, Fergal

2017-02-01

Declining muscle power during advancing age predicts falls and loss of independence. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may improve muscle power, but remains largely unstudied in ageing participants. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) investigated the efficacy of a low-frequency HIIT (LfHIIT) intervention on peak muscle power (peak power output [PPO]), body composition, and balance in lifelong sedentary but otherwise healthy males. Thirty-three lifelong sedentary ageing men were randomly assigned to either intervention (INT; n = 22, age 62.3 ± 4.1 years) or control (n = 11, age 61.6 ± 5.0 years) who were both assessed at 3 distinct measurement points (phase A), after 6 weeks of conditioning exercise (phase B), and after 6 weeks of HIIT once every 5 days in INT (phase C), where control remained inactive throughout the study. Static balance remained unaffected, and both absolute and relative PPO were not different between groups at phases A or B, but increased significantly in INT after LfHIIT (P < 0.01). Lean body mass displayed a significant interaction (P < 0.01) due to an increase in INT between phases B and C (P < 0.05). 6 weeks of LfHIIT exercise feasible and effective method to induce clinically relevant improvements in absolute and relative PPO, but does not improve static balance in sedentary ageing men.

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most windmore » plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.« less

Efficient differentially private learning improves drug sensitivity prediction.

PubMed

Honkela, Antti; Das, Mrinal; Nieminen, Arttu; Dikmen, Onur; Kaski, Samuel

2018-02-06

Users of a personalised recommendation system face a dilemma: recommendations can be improved by learning from data, but only if other users are willing to share their private information. Good personalised predictions are vitally important in precision medicine, but genomic information on which the predictions are based is also particularly sensitive, as it directly identifies the patients and hence cannot easily be anonymised. Differential privacy has emerged as a potentially promising solution: privacy is considered sufficient if presence of individual patients cannot be distinguished. However, differentially private learning with current methods does not improve predictions with feasible data sizes and dimensionalities. We show that useful predictors can be learned under powerful differential privacy guarantees, and even from moderately-sized data sets, by demonstrating significant improvements in the accuracy of private drug sensitivity prediction with a new robust private regression method. Our method matches the predictive accuracy of the state-of-the-art non-private lasso regression using only 4x more samples under relatively strong differential privacy guarantees. Good performance with limited data is achieved by limiting the sharing of private information by decreasing the dimensionality and by projecting outliers to fit tighter bounds, therefore needing to add less noise for equal privacy. The proposed differentially private regression method combines theoretical appeal and asymptotic efficiency with good prediction accuracy even with moderate-sized data. As already the simple-to-implement method shows promise on the challenging genomic data, we anticipate rapid progress towards practical applications in many fields. This article was reviewed by Zoltan Gaspari and David Kreil.

A Solar Time-Based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Zhang, Xinmin; Li, Yuan

This paper presents a new analog ensemble method for day-ahead regional photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with hourly resolution. By utilizing open weather forecast and power measurement data, this prediction method is processed within a set of historical data with similar meteorological data (temperature and irradiance), and astronomical date (solar time and earth declination angle). Further, clustering and blending strategies are applied to improve its accuracy in regional PV forecasting. The robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated with three different numerical weather prediction models, the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, the Global Forecast System, and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast, formore » both region level and single site level PV forecasts. Using real measured data, the new forecasting approach is applied to the load zone in Southeastern Massachusetts as a case study. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) has been reduced by 13.80%-61.21% when compared with three tested baselines.« less

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Management filters and species traits: Weed community assembly in long-term organic and conventional systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Community assembly theory provides a useful framework to assess the response of weed communities to agricultural management systems and to improve the predictive power of weed science. Under this framework, weed community assembly is constrained by abiotic and biotic "filters" that act on species tr...

Applicability of internet search index for asthma admission forecast using machine learning.

PubMed

Luo, Li; Liao, Chengcheng; Zhang, Fengyi; Zhang, Wei; Li, Chunyang; Qiu, Zhixin; Huang, Debin

2018-04-15

This study aimed to determine whether a search index could provide insight into trends in asthma admission in China. An Internet search index is a powerful tool to monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. However, whether using an internet search index can significantly improve asthma admissions forecasts remains unknown. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for asthma and to avoid asthma health care resource shortages in advance. In this study, we used a search index combined with air pollution data, weather data, and historical admissions data to forecast asthma admissions using machine learning. Results demonstrated that the best area under the curve in the test set that can be achieved is 0.832, using all predictors mentioned earlier. A search index is a powerful predictor in asthma admissions forecast, and a recent search index can reflect current asthma admissions with a lag-effect to a certain extent. The addition of a real-time, easily accessible search index improves forecasting capabilities and demonstrates the predictive potential of search index. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to improve the estimation of fire emissions from fire radiative power (FRP) observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Rémy, Samuel; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2018-04-01

The atmospheric composition analysis and forecast for the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) relies on biomass-burning fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). The GFAS is a global system and converts fire radiative power (FRP) observations from MODIS satellites into smoke constituents. Missing observations are filled in using persistence, whereby observed FRP values from the previous day are progressed in time until a new observation is recorded. One of the consequences of this assumption is an increase of fire duration, which in turn translates into an increase of emissions estimated from fires compared to what is available from observations. In this study persistence is replaced by modelled predictions using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which describes how atmospheric conditions affect the vegetation moisture content and ultimately fire duration. The skill in predicting emissions from biomass burning is improved with the new technique, which indicates that using an FWI-based model to infer emissions from FRP is better than persistence when observations are not available.

Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.

2010-09-01

Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single-ANN model (without regime classification) is adopted as a reference model. Both models are evaluated in terms of Improvement over Persistence on the Mean Square Error basis (IoP%) when predicting horizons form 1 time-step to 5. The case of a wind farm located in the complex terrain of Alaiz (north of Spain) has been considered. Three years of available power output data with a hourly resolution have been employed: two years for training and validation of the model and the last year for assessing the accuracy. Results showed that the RS-ANN overcame the single-ANN model for one step-ahead forecasts: the overall IoP% was up to 8.66% for the RS-ANN model (depending on the gradient criterion selected to consider the ramp regime triggered) and 6.16% for the single-ANN. However, both models showed similar accuracy for larger horizons. A locally-weighted evaluation during ramp events for one-step ahead was also performed. It was found that the IoP% during ramps-up increased from 17.60% (case of single-ANN) to 22.25% (case of RS-ANN); however, during the ramps-down events this improvement increased from 18.55% to 19.55%. Three main conclusions are derived from this case study: It highlights the importance of considering statistical models capable of differentiate several regimes showed by the output power time series in order to improve the forecasting during extreme events like ramps. On-line regime classification based on available power output data didn't seem to contribute to improve forecasts for horizons beyond one-step ahead. Tacking into account other explanatory variables (local wind measurements, NWP outputs) could lead to a better understanding of ramp events, improving the regime assessment also for further horizons. The RS-ANN model slightly overcame the single-ANN during ramp-down events. If further research reinforce this effect, special attention should be addressed to understand the underlying processes during ramp-down events.

Recurrent Neural Network Applications for Astronomical Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protopapas, Pavlos

2017-06-01

The benefits of good predictive models in astronomy lie in early event prediction systems and effective resource allocation. Current time series methods applicable to regular time series have not evolved to generalize for irregular time series. In this talk, I will describe two Recurrent Neural Network methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Networks (ESNs) for predicting irregular time series. Feature engineering along with a non-linear modeling proved to be an effective predictor. For noisy time series, the prediction is improved by training the network on error realizations using the error estimates from astronomical light curves. In addition to this, we propose a new neural network architecture to remove correlation from the residuals in order to improve prediction and compensate for the noisy data. Finally, I show how to set hyperparameters for a stable and performant solution correctly. In this work, we circumvent this obstacle by optimizing ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian Process priors. This automates the tuning procedure, enabling users to employ the power of RNN without needing an in-depth understanding of the tuning procedure.

Development of Integrated Assessment System for Underground Power Cable Performance: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina; Soliha Sahimi, Nur; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd

2017-08-01

The basic operation of any electrical machines that is catered to serve needs of civilization involves electrical power which is the main source to trigger the internal mechanism in the machines then transfer the power to other form of energy such as mechanical, light, sound and etc. The supplies of electrical does not happen just by providing the source itself, it has load carrying agent which in many cases, user would refer to it as cable. Specifically, it is the power cable which its ampacity depends significantly on the operation temperature and load stress on it. Apart from having to focus on providing improvement on improving efficiency on the source itself, power cable plays and important role because without it, current ranging from low to high could not be transmitted and hence a failure of the power system generally. Studies have conducted to discuss whether which factor contributes relatively more to the causes of power cable failure or breakdown. Such factors can be narrowed down to the three major causes which are over temperature, over voltage and stress caused by over current. Over current is one of the factor which is depends on the usage of the power system itself. The higher the usage of the power system, higher the chances of over current to take place. This will then produce load stress on the cable which eventually destroy the insulator of the cable and slowly reach the core of the cable. It is believed that an assessment method should be implemented in order to predict the performance and failure rate of the power cable and use this prediction as reference rather than just letting power failure to happen anytime unpredictable which cause huge inconvenience to users and industries. Not only do a method should be implemented, it should be as easy to be used and understood by large range of users and integrated by a graphical user interface to be used. Therefore, this research will further narrow down on the approaches to do so and the location of studies involve Company M which is an agriculture industries which has higher usage on their own underground power cable. Moreover, in the past history the company experienced electrical power failure and this studies and findings will definitely come in hand to provide them necessary help and benefits.

Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics

PubMed Central

Ranco, Gabriele; Bordino, Ilaria; Bormetti, Giacomo; Caldarelli, Guido; Lillo, Fabrizio; Treccani, Michele

2016-01-01

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users’ behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012–2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a “wisdom-of-the-crowd” effect that allows to exploit users’ activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment. PMID:26808833

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Study on cold head structure of a 300 Hz thermoacoustically driven pulse tube cryocooler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, G. Y.; Wang, X. T.; Dai, W.; Luo, E. C.

2012-04-01

High reliability, compact size and potentially high thermal efficiency make the high frequency thermoacoustically-driven pulse tube cryocooler quite promising for space use. With continuous efforts, the lowest temperature and the thermal efficiency of the coupled system have been greatly improved. So far, a cold head temperature below 60 K has been achieved on such kind of cryocooler with the operation frequency of around 300 Hz. To further improve the thermal efficiency and expedite its practical application, this work focuses on studying the influence of cold head structure on the system performance. Substantial numerical simulations were firstly carried out, which revealed that the cold head structure would greatly influence the cooling power and the thermal efficiency. To validate the predictions, a lot of experiments have been done. The experiments and calculations are in reasonable agreement. With 500 W heating power input into the engine, a no-load temperature of 63 K and a cooling power of 1.16 W at 80 K have been obtained with parallel-plate cold head, indicating encouraging improvement of the thermal efficiency.

Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar

With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual modelmore » has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.« less

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Advances in traction drive technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loewenthal, S. H.; Anderson, N. E.; Rohn, D. A.

1983-01-01

Traction drives are traced from early uses as main transmissions in automobiles at the turn of the century to modern, high-powered traction drives capable of transmitting hundreds of horsepower. Recent advances in technology are described which enable today's traction drive to be a serious candidate for off-highway vehicles and helicopter applications. Improvements in materials, traction fluids, design techniques, power loss and life prediction methods will be highlighted. Performance characteristics of the Nasvytis fixed-ratio drive are given. Promising future drive applications, such as helicopter main transmissions and servo-control positioning mechanisms are also addressed.

Literature mining supports a next-generation modeling approach to predict cellular byproduct secretion.

PubMed

King, Zachary A; O'Brien, Edward J; Feist, Adam M; Palsson, Bernhard O

2017-01-01

The metabolic byproducts secreted by growing cells can be easily measured and provide a window into the state of a cell; they have been essential to the development of microbiology, cancer biology, and biotechnology. Progress in computational modeling of cells has made it possible to predict metabolic byproduct secretion with bottom-up reconstructions of metabolic networks. However, owing to a lack of data, it has not been possible to validate these predictions across a wide range of strains and conditions. Through literature mining, we were able to generate a database of Escherichia coli strains and their experimentally measured byproduct secretions. We simulated these strains in six historical genome-scale models of E. coli, and we report that the predictive power of the models has increased as they have expanded in size and scope. The latest genome-scale model of metabolism correctly predicts byproduct secretion for 35/89 (39%) of designs. The next-generation genome-scale model of metabolism and gene expression (ME-model) correctly predicts byproduct secretion for 40/89 (45%) of designs, and we show that ME-model predictions could be further improved through kinetic parameterization. We analyze the failure modes of these simulations and discuss opportunities to improve prediction of byproduct secretion. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automotive Stirling engine development program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ernst, W.; Richey, A.; Farrell, R.; Riecke, G.; Smith, G.; Howarth, R.; Cronin, M.; Simetkosky, M.; Meacher, J.

1986-01-01

The major accomplishments were the completion of the Basic Stirling Engine (BSE) and the Stirling Engine System (SES) designs on schedule, the approval and acceptance of those designs by NASA, and the initiation of manufacture of BSE components. The performance predictions indicate the Mod II engine design will meet or exceed the original program goals of 30% improvement in fuel economy over a conventional Internal Combustion (IC) powered vehicle, while providing acceptable emissions. This was accomplished while simultaneously reducing Mod II engine weight to a level comparable with IC engine power density, and packaging the Mod II in a 1985 Celebrity with no external sheet metal changes. The projected mileage of the Mod II Celebrity for the combined urban and highway CVS cycle is 40.9 mpg which is a 32% improvement over the IC Celebrity. If additional potential improvements are verified and incorporated in the Mod II, the mileage could increase to 42.7 mpg.

Research on wind power grid-connected operation and dispatching strategies of Liaoning power grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Qiu; Qu, Zhi; Zhou, Zhi; He, Xiaoyang; Li, Tie; Jin, Xiaoming; Li, Jinze; Ling, Zhaowei

2018-02-01

As a kind of clean energy, wind power has gained rapid development in recent years. Liaoning Province has abundant wind resources and the total installed capacity of wind power is in the forefront. With the large-scale wind power grid-connected operation, the contradiction between wind power utilization and peak load regulation of power grid has been more prominent. To this point, starting with the power structure and power grid installation situation of Liaoning power grid, the distribution and the space-time output characteristics of wind farm, the prediction accuracy, the curtailment and the off-grid situation of wind power are analyzed. Based on the deep analysis of the seasonal characteristics of power network load, the composition and distribution of main load are presented. Aiming at the problem between the acceptance of wind power and power grid adjustment, the scheduling strategies are given, including unit maintenance scheduling, spinning reserve, energy storage equipment settings by the analysis of the operation characteristics and the response time of thermal power units and hydroelectric units, which can meet the demand of wind power acceptance and provide a solution to improve the level of power grid dispatching.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

Predicting Individuals' Learning Success from Patterns of Pre-Learning MRI Activity

PubMed Central

Vo, Loan T. K.; Walther, Dirk B.; Kramer, Arthur F.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Voss, Michelle W.; Prakash, Ruchika S.; Lee, Hyunkyu; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Simons, Daniel J.; Sutton, Bradley P.; Wang, Michelle Y.

2011-01-01

Performance in most complex cognitive and psychomotor tasks improves with training, yet the extent of improvement varies among individuals. Is it possible to forecast the benefit that a person might reap from training? Several behavioral measures have been used to predict individual differences in task improvement, but their predictive power is limited. Here we show that individual differences in patterns of time-averaged T2*-weighted MRI images in the dorsal striatum recorded at the initial stage of training predict subsequent learning success in a complex video game with high accuracy. These predictions explained more than half of the variance in learning success among individuals, suggesting that individual differences in neuroanatomy or persistent physiology predict whether and to what extent people will benefit from training in a complex task. Surprisingly, predictions from white matter were highly accurate, while voxels in the gray matter of the dorsal striatum did not contain any information about future training success. Prediction accuracy was higher in the anterior than the posterior half of the dorsal striatum. The link between trainability and the time-averaged T2*-weighted signal in the dorsal striatum reaffirms the role of this part of the basal ganglia in learning and executive functions, such as task-switching and task coordination processes. The ability to predict who will benefit from training by using neuroimaging data collected in the early training phase may have far-reaching implications for the assessment of candidates for specific training programs as well as the study of populations that show deficiencies in learning new skills. PMID:21264257

Rational Design of Mouse Models for Cancer Research.

PubMed

Landgraf, Marietta; McGovern, Jacqui A; Friedl, Peter; Hutmacher, Dietmar W

2018-03-01

The laboratory mouse is widely considered as a valid and affordable model organism to study human disease. Attempts to improve the relevance of murine models for the investigation of human pathologies led to the development of various genetically engineered, xenograft and humanized mouse models. Nevertheless, most preclinical studies in mice suffer from insufficient predictive value when compared with cancer biology and therapy response of human patients. We propose an innovative strategy to improve the predictive power of preclinical cancer models. Combining (i) genomic, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine approaches for rational design of mouse models with (ii) rapid prototyping and computational benchmarking against human clinical data will enable fast and nonbiased validation of newly generated models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power spectrum for the small-scale Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widrow, Lawrence M.; Elahi, Pascal J.; Thacker, Robert J.; Richardson, Mark; Scannapieco, Evan

2009-08-01

The first objects to arise in a cold dark matter (CDM) universe present a daunting challenge for models of structure formation. In the ultra small-scale limit, CDM structures form nearly simultaneously across a wide range of scales. Hierarchical clustering no longer provides a guiding principle for theoretical analyses and the computation time required to carry out credible simulations becomes prohibitively high. To gain insight into this problem, we perform high-resolution (N = 7203-15843) simulations of an Einstein-de Sitter cosmology where the initial power spectrum is P(k) ~ kn, with -2.5 <= n <= - 1. Self-similar scaling is established for n = -1 and -2 more convincingly than in previous, lower resolution simulations and for the first time, self-similar scaling is established for an n = -2.25 simulation. However, finite box-size effects induce departures from self-similar scaling in our n = -2.5 simulation. We compare our results with the predictions for the power spectrum from (one-loop) perturbation theory and demonstrate that the renormalization group approach suggested by McDonald improves perturbation theory's ability to predict the power spectrum in the quasi-linear regime. In the non-linear regime, our power spectra differ significantly from the widely used fitting formulae of Peacock & Dodds and Smith et al. and a new fitting formula is presented. Implications of our results for the stable clustering hypothesis versus halo model debate are discussed. Our power spectra are inconsistent with predictions of the stable clustering hypothesis in the high-k limit and lend credence to the halo model. Nevertheless, the fitting formula advocated in this paper is purely empirical and not derived from a specific formulation of the halo model.

MusiteDeep: a deep-learning framework for general and kinase-specific phosphorylation site prediction.

PubMed

Wang, Duolin; Zeng, Shuai; Xu, Chunhui; Qiu, Wangren; Liang, Yanchun; Joshi, Trupti; Xu, Dong

2017-12-15

Computational methods for phosphorylation site prediction play important roles in protein function studies and experimental design. Most existing methods are based on feature extraction, which may result in incomplete or biased features. Deep learning as the cutting-edge machine learning method has the ability to automatically discover complex representations of phosphorylation patterns from the raw sequences, and hence it provides a powerful tool for improvement of phosphorylation site prediction. We present MusiteDeep, the first deep-learning framework for predicting general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. MusiteDeep takes raw sequence data as input and uses convolutional neural networks with a novel two-dimensional attention mechanism. It achieves over a 50% relative improvement in the area under the precision-recall curve in general phosphorylation site prediction and obtains competitive results in kinase-specific prediction compared to other well-known tools on the benchmark data. MusiteDeep is provided as an open-source tool available at https://github.com/duolinwang/MusiteDeep. xudong@missouri.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

The circadian profile of epilepsy improves seizure forecasting.

PubMed

Karoly, Philippa J; Ung, Hoameng; Grayden, David B; Kuhlmann, Levin; Leyde, Kent; Cook, Mark J; Freestone, Dean R

2017-08-01

It is now established that epilepsy is characterized by periodic dynamics that increase seizure likelihood at certain times of day, and which are highly patient-specific. However, these dynamics are not typically incorporated into seizure prediction algorithms due to the difficulty of estimating patient-specific rhythms from relatively short-term or unreliable data sources. This work outlines a novel framework to develop and assess seizure forecasts, and demonstrates that the predictive power of forecasting models is improved by circadian information. The analyses used long-term, continuous electrocorticography from nine subjects, recorded for an average of 320 days each. We used a large amount of out-of-sample data (a total of 900 days for algorithm training, and 2879 days for testing), enabling the most extensive post hoc investigation into seizure forecasting. We compared the results of an electrocorticography-based logistic regression model, a circadian probability, and a combined electrocorticography and circadian model. For all subjects, clinically relevant seizure prediction results were significant, and the addition of circadian information (combined model) maximized performance across a range of outcome measures. These results represent a proof-of-concept for implementing a circadian forecasting framework, and provide insight into new approaches for improving seizure prediction algorithms. The circadian framework adds very little computational complexity to existing prediction algorithms, and can be implemented using current-generation implant devices, or even non-invasively via surface electrodes using a wearable application. The ability to improve seizure prediction algorithms through straightforward, patient-specific modifications provides promise for increased quality of life and improved safety for patients with epilepsy. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Potential for natural evaporation as a reliable renewable energy resource.

PubMed

Cavusoglu, Ahmet-Hamdi; Chen, Xi; Gentine, Pierre; Sahin, Ozgur

2017-09-26

About 50% of the solar energy absorbed at the Earth's surface drives evaporation, fueling the water cycle that affects various renewable energy resources, such as wind and hydropower. Recent advances demonstrate our nascent ability to convert evaporation energy into work, yet there is little understanding about the potential of this resource. Here we study the energy available from natural evaporation to predict the potential of this ubiquitous resource. We find that natural evaporation from open water surfaces could provide power densities comparable to current wind and solar technologies while cutting evaporative water losses by nearly half. We estimate up to 325 GW of power is potentially available in the United States. Strikingly, water's large heat capacity is sufficient to control power output by storing excess energy when demand is low, thus reducing intermittency and improving reliability. Our findings motivate the improvement of materials and devices that convert energy from evaporation.The evaporation of water represents an alternative source of renewable energy. Building on previous models of evaporation, Cavusoglu et al. show that the power available from this natural resource is comparable to wind and solar power, yet it does not suffer as much from varying weather conditions.

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins

PubMed Central

Steves, Claire J.; Mehta, Mitul M.; Jackson, Stephen H.D.; Spector, Tim D.

2016-01-01

Background Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. Objectives We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. Methods A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. Results A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant twin analyses, where within-pair difference in physical fitness was also predictive of within-pair difference in lateral ventricle size. There was a weak independent effect of self-reported physical activity. Conclusion Leg power predicts both cognitive ageing and global brain structure, despite controlling for common genetics and early life environment shared by twins. Interventions targeted to improve leg power in the long term may help reach a universal goal of healthy cognitive ageing. PMID:26551663

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins.

PubMed

Steves, Claire J; Mehta, Mitul M; Jackson, Stephen H D; Spector, Tim D

2016-01-01

Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant twin analyses, where within-pair difference in physical fitness was also predictive of within-pair difference in lateral ventricle size. There was a weak independent effect of self-reported physical activity. Leg power predicts both cognitive ageing and global brain structure, despite controlling for common genetics and early life environment shared by twins. Interventions targeted to improve leg power in the long term may help reach a universal goal of healthy cognitive ageing. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Development and fabrication of improved Schottky power diodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cordes, L. F.; Garfinkel, M.; Taft, E. A.

1975-01-01

Reproducible methods for the fabrication of silicon Schottky diodes have been developed for tungsten, aluminum, conventional platinum silicide, and low temperature platinum silicide. Barrier heights and barrier lowering under reverse bias have been measured, permitting the accurate prediction of forward and reverse diode characteristics. Processing procedures have been developed that permit the fabrication of large area (about 1 sq cm) mesageometry power Schottky diodes with forward and reverse characteristics that approach theoretical values. A theoretical analysis of the operation of bridge rectifier circuits has been performed, which indicates the ranges of frequency and voltage for which Schottky rectifiers are preferred to p-n junctions. Power Schottky rectifiers have been fabricated and tested for voltage ratings up to 140 volts.

Improving GPU-accelerated adaptive IDW interpolation algorithm using fast kNN search.

PubMed

Mei, Gang; Xu, Nengxiong; Xu, Liangliang

2016-01-01

This paper presents an efficient parallel Adaptive Inverse Distance Weighting (AIDW) interpolation algorithm on modern Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). The presented algorithm is an improvement of our previous GPU-accelerated AIDW algorithm by adopting fast k-nearest neighbors (kNN) search. In AIDW, it needs to find several nearest neighboring data points for each interpolated point to adaptively determine the power parameter; and then the desired prediction value of the interpolated point is obtained by weighted interpolating using the power parameter. In this work, we develop a fast kNN search approach based on the space-partitioning data structure, even grid, to improve the previous GPU-accelerated AIDW algorithm. The improved algorithm is composed of the stages of kNN search and weighted interpolating. To evaluate the performance of the improved algorithm, we perform five groups of experimental tests. The experimental results indicate: (1) the improved algorithm can achieve a speedup of up to 1017 over the corresponding serial algorithm; (2) the improved algorithm is at least two times faster than our previous GPU-accelerated AIDW algorithm; and (3) the utilization of fast kNN search can significantly improve the computational efficiency of the entire GPU-accelerated AIDW algorithm.

Improved perturbation method for gadolinia worth calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, R.T.; Congdon, S.P.

1986-01-01

Gadolinia is utilized in light water power reactors as burnable poison for reserving excess reactivity. Good gadolinia worth estimation is useful for evaluating fuel bundle designs, core operating strategies, and fuel cycle economics. The authors have developed an improved perturbation method based on exact perturbation theory for gadolinia worth calculations in fuel bundles. The method predicts much more accurate gadolinia worth than the first-order perturbation method (commonly used to estimate nuclide worths) for bundles containing fresh or partly burned gadolinia.

Development and fabrication of improved power transistor switches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hower, P. L.; Chu, C. K.

1979-01-01

A new class of high-voltage power transistors was achieved by adapting present interdigitated thyristor processing techniques to the fabrication of npn Si transistors. Present devices are 2.3 cm in diameter and have V sub CEO (sus) in the range of 400 to 600V. V sub CEO (sus) = 450V devices were made with an (h sub FE)(I sub C) product of 900A at V sub CE = 2.5V. The electrical performance obtained was consistent with the predictions of an optimum design theory specifically developed for power switching transistors. The device design, wafer processing, and assembly techniques are described. Experimental measurements of the dc characteristics, forward SOA, and switching times are included. A new method of characterizing the switching performance of power transistors is proposed.

Multisensory stimuli elicit altered oscillatory brain responses at gamma frequencies in patients with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Stone, David B.; Coffman, Brian A.; Bustillo, Juan R.; Aine, Cheryl J.; Stephen, Julia M.

2014-01-01

Deficits in auditory and visual unisensory responses are well documented in patients with schizophrenia; however, potential abnormalities elicited from multisensory audio-visual stimuli are less understood. Further, schizophrenia patients have shown abnormal patterns in task-related and task-independent oscillatory brain activity, particularly in the gamma frequency band. We examined oscillatory responses to basic unisensory and multisensory stimuli in schizophrenia patients (N = 46) and healthy controls (N = 57) using magnetoencephalography (MEG). Time-frequency decomposition was performed to determine regions of significant changes in gamma band power by group in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli relative to baseline levels. Results showed significant behavioral differences between groups in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli. In addition, time-frequency analysis revealed significant decreases and increases in gamma-band power in schizophrenia patients relative to healthy controls, which emerged both early and late over both sensory and frontal regions in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli. Unisensory gamma-band power predicted multisensory gamma-band power differently by group. Furthermore, gamma-band power in these regions predicted performance in select measures of the Measurement and Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (MATRICS) test battery differently by group. These results reveal a unique pattern of task-related gamma-band power in schizophrenia patients relative to controls that may indicate reduced inhibition in combination with impaired oscillatory mechanisms in patients with schizophrenia. PMID:25414652

The AGT Gene M235T Polymorphism and Response of Power-Related Variables to Aerobic Training

PubMed Central

Aleksandra, Zarębska; Zbigniew, Jastrzębski; Waldemar, Moska; Agata, Leońska-Duniec; Mariusz, Kaczmarczyk; Marek, Sawczuk; Agnieszka, Maciejewska-Skrendo; Piotr, Żmijewski; Krzysztof, Ficek; Grzegorz, Trybek; Ewelina, Lulińska-Kuklik; Semenova, Ekaterina A.; Ahmetov, Ildus I.; Paweł, Cięszczyk

2016-01-01

The C allele of the M235T (rs699) polymorphism of the AGT gene correlates with higher levels of angiotensin II and has been associated with power and strength sport performance. The aim of the study was to investigate whether or not selected power-related variables and their response to a 12-week program of aerobic dance training are modulated by the AGT M235T genotype in healthy participants. Two hundred and one Polish Caucasian women aged 21 ± 1 years met the inclusion criteria and were included in the study. All women completed a 12-week program of low and high impact aerobics. Wingate peak power and total work capacity, 5 m, 10 m, and 30 m running times and jump height and jump power were determined before and after the training programme. All power-related variables improved significantly in response to aerobic dance training. We found a significant association between the M235T polymorphism and jump-based variables (squat jump (SJ) height, p = 0.005; SJ power, p = 0.015; countermovement jump height, p = 0.025; average of 10 countermovement jumps with arm swing (ACMJ) height, p = 0.001; ACMJ power, p = 0.035). Specifically, greater improvements were observed in the C allele carriers in comparison with TT homozygotes. In conclusion, aerobic dance, one of the most commonly practiced adult fitness activities in the world, provides sufficient training stimuli for augmenting the explosive strength necessary to increase vertical jump performance. The AGT gene M235T polymorphism seems to be not only a candidate gene variant for power/strength related phenotypes, but also a genetic marker for predicting response to training. Key points Aerobic dance provides sufficient training stimuli for the improvement of explosive power. The AGT gene M235T polymorphism is associated with individual variation in the change of power-related phenotypes in response to aerobic dance training. The C allele carriers of the AGT gene M235T polymorphism show greater improvements of jump-based variables in comparison with TT homozygotes. PMID:27928207

Specular reflectance of soiled glass mirrors - Study on the impact of incidence angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimsath, Anna; Lindner, Philip; Klimm, Elisabeth; Schmid, Tobias; Moreno, Karolina Ordonez; Elon, Yehonatan; Am-Shallem, Morag; Nitz, Peter

2016-05-01

The accumulation of dust and soil on the surface of solar reflectors is an important factor reducing the power output of solar power plants. Therefore the effect of accumulated dust on the specular reflectance of solar mirrors should be understood well in order to improve the site-dependent performance prediction. Furthermore, an optimization of the CSP System maintenance, in particular the cleaning cycles, can be achieved. Our measurements show a noticeable decrease of specular reflectance when the angle of incidence is increased. This effect may be explained by shading and blocking mechanisms caused by dirt particles. The main physical causes of radiation loss being absorption and scattering, the near-angle scattering leads to a further decrease of specular reflectance for smaller angles of acceptance. Within this study mirror samples were both outdoor exposed and indoor artificially soiled. For indoor soiling, the mirror samples were artificially soiled in an in-house developed dusting device using both artificial-standardized dust and real dust collected from an arid outdoor test field at the Negev desert. A model function is proposed that approximates the observed reduction of specular reflectance with the incidence angle with a sufficient accuracy and by simple means for this soil type. Hence a first step towards a new approach to improve site dependent performance prediction of solar power plants is taken.

The Content, Predictive Power, and Potential Bias in Five Widely Used Teacher Observation Instruments. REL 2017-191

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gill, Brian; Shoji, Megan; Coen, Thomas; Place, Kate

2016-01-01

School districts and states across the Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic Region and the country as a whole have been modifying their teacher evaluation systems to identify more effective and less effective teachers and provide better feedback to improve instructional practice. The new systems typically include components related to…

Study of Flexible Load Dispatch to Improve the Capacity of Wind Power Absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunlei, Yang; Shifeng, Zhang; Xiao, Chang; Da, Lei; Min, Zhang; Jinhao, Wang; Shengwen, Li; Huipeng, Li

2017-05-01

The dispatch method which track the trend of load demand by arranging the generation scheme of controllable hydro or thermal units faces great difficulties and challenges. With the increase of renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power introduced to grid, system has to arrange much more spinning reserve units to compensate the unbalanced power. How to exploit the peak-shaving potential of flexible load which can be shifted with time or storage energy has become many scholars’ research direction. However, the modelling of different kinds of load and control strategy is considerably difficult, this paper choose the Air Conditioner with compressor which can storage energy in fact to study. The equivalent thermal parameters of Air Conditioner has been established. And with the use of “loop control” strategies, we can predict the regulated power of Air Conditioner. Then we established the Gen-Load optimal scheduling model including flexible load based on traditional optimal scheduling model. At last, an improved IEEE-30 case is used to verify. The result of simulation shows that flexible load can fast-track renewable power changes. More than that, with flexible load and reasonable incentive method to consumers, the operating cost of the system can be greatly cut down.

Modelling the power deposition into a spherical tokamak fusion power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Windsor, C. G.; Morgan, J. G.; Buxton, P. F.; Costley, A. E.; Smith, G. D. W.; Sykes, A.

2017-03-01

Numerical studies have been made to improve the performance of the central column of a superconducting spherical tokamak fusion pilot plant. The assumed neutron shield includes concentric layers of tungsten carbide and water. The relative thickness of the water layers was varied and a minimum power deposition was found at about 17% of water. It was found advantageous to have an approximately 1.7 times thicker water layer next to the core and a similarly thinner layer next to the plasma. The use of tungsten boride instead of tungsten carbide was shown to make an improvement especially if placed close to the central superconducting core, the inner layer alone reducing the power deposition by 29%. Engineering features such as a central steel tie-bar, an insulating thermal vacuum gap, a wall gap next to the plasma and knowledge of the vertical energy distribution are essential to a successful design and their effects on the power deposition are shown in an appendix. The results have been fitted to model distributions and incorporated into the Tokamak Energy System Code, which can then give predictions of the power deposition as a function of other parameters such as the plasma major radius and the maximum magnetic field permitted on the superconductors.

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Distinct plasma lipids profiles of recurrent ovarian cancer by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

PubMed Central

Li, Ang; Cheng, Jinlong; Yang, Kai; Wang, Jingtao; Wang, Wenjie; Zhang, Fan; Li, Zhenzi; Dhillon, Harman S.; Openkova, Margarita S; Zhou, Xiaohua; Li, Kang; Hou, Yan

2017-01-01

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the most deadly gynecologic malignancy worldwide due to its high recurrence rate after surgery and chemotherapy. There is a critical need for discovery of novel biomarkers for EOC recurrence providing higher prediction power than that of the present ones. Lipids have been reported to associate with development and progression of cancer. In the current study, we aim to identify and validate the lipids which were relevant to the ovarian cancer recurrence based on plasma lipidomics performed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. In order to fulfill this objective, plasma from 70 EOC patients with follow up information was obtained. The results revealed that patients with and without recurrence could be clearly distinguished based on their lipid profiles. Thirty-one lipid metabolites were identified as potential biomarkers for EOC recurrence. The AUC value of these metabolite combinations for predicting EOC recurrence was 0.897. In terms of clinical applicability, LysoPG(20:5) arose as a potential EOC recurrence predictive biomarker to increase the predictive power of clinical predictors from AUC value 0.739 to 0.875. Additionally, we still found that individuals with early relapses (< 6 months) had a distinctive metabolomic pattern compared with late EOC and non-EOC recurrence subjects. Interestingly, decreased levels of triglycerides (TGs) were found to be a specific metabolic feature foreshadowing an early relapse. In conclusion, plasma lipidomics study could be used for predicting EOC recurrences, as well as early and late recurrent cases. The lipid biomarker research improves the predictive power of clinical predictors and the identified biomarkers are of great prognostic and therapeutic potential. PMID:27564116

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

The PREM score: a graphical tool for predicting survival in very preterm births.

PubMed

Cole, T J; Hey, E; Richmond, S

2010-01-01

To develop a tool for predicting survival to term in babies born more than 8 weeks early using only information available at or before birth. 1456 non-malformed very preterm babies of 22-31 weeks' gestation born in 2000-3 in the north of England and 3382 births of 23-31 weeks born in 2000-4 in Trent. Survival to term, predicted from information available at birth, and at the onset of labour or delivery. Development of a logistic regression model (the prematurity risk evaluation measure or PREM score) based on gestation, birth weight for gestation and base deficit from umbilical cord blood. Gestation was by far the most powerful predictor of survival to term, and as few as 5 extra days can double the chance of survival. Weight for gestation also had a powerful but non-linear effect on survival, with weight between the median and 85th centile predicting the highest survival. Using this information survival can be predicted almost as accurately before birth as after, although base deficit further improves the prediction. A simple graph is described that shows how the two main variables gestation and weight for gestation interact to predict the chance of survival. The PREM score can be used to predict the chance of survival at or before birth almost as accurately as existing measures influenced by post-delivery condition, to balance risk at entry into a controlled trial and to adjust for differences in "case mix" when assessing the quality of perinatal care.

Long-Term Heating to Improve Receiver Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

The buildup of hydrogen in the heat transfer fluid (HTF) that circulates through components of parabolic trough power plants decreases receiver thermal efficiency, and ultimately, it decreases plant performance and electricity output. The generation and occurrence of hydrogen in the HTF provides the driving force for hydrogen to permeate from the HTF through the absorber tube wall and into the receiver annulus. Getters adsorb hydrogen from the annulus volume until they saturate and are no longer able to maintain low hydrogen pressure. The increase in hydrogen pressure within the annulus significantly degrades thermal performance of the receiver and decreases overallmore » power-plant efficiency. NREL and Acciona Energy North America (Acciona) are developing a method to control the levels of dissolved hydrogen in the circulating HTF. The basic approach is to remove hydrogen from the expansion tanks of the HTF subsystem at a rate that maintains hydrogen in the circulating HTF to a target level. Full-plant steady-state models developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) predict that if hydrogen is removed from the HTF within the expansion tanks, the HTF that circulates through the collector field remains essentially free of hydrogen until the HTF returns to the power block in the hot headers. One of the key findings of our modeling is the prediction that hydrogen will reverse-permeate out of the receiver annulus if dissolved hydrogen in the HTF is kept sufficiently low. To test this prediction, we performed extended heating of an in-service receiver that initially had high levels of hydrogen in its annulus. The heating was performed using NREL's receiver test stand. Results of our testing showed that receiver heat loss steadily decreased with daily heating, resulting in a corresponding improvement in receiver thermal efficiency.« less

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Efficiency of bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells

PubMed Central

Scharber, M.C.; Sariciftci, N.S.

2013-01-01

During the last years the performance of bulk heterojunction solar cells has been improved significantly. For a large-scale application of this technology further improvements are required. This article reviews the basic working principles and the state of the art device design of bulk heterojunction solar cells. The importance of high power conversion efficiencies for the commercial exploitation is outlined and different efficiency models for bulk heterojunction solar cells are discussed. Assuming state of the art materials and device architectures several models predict power conversion efficiencies in the range of 10–15%. A more general approach assuming device operation close to the Shockley–Queisser-limit leads to even higher efficiencies. Bulk heterojunction devices exhibiting only radiative recombination of charge carriers could be as efficient as ideal inorganic photovoltaic devices. PMID:24302787

Studies of the generation mechanisms of steady vortex formations in the channels of nuclear-power installations for purposes of improving the reliability and safety of their work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrofanova, O.

2017-01-01

The analysis of the results of experimental researches on revealing the mechanisms of vortex formation in channels of complex geometry in the neutral and conductive media is carried out. The directions of researches related to the study of mechanisms of vortex generation and accumulation of energy by large-scale vortex structures are considered for the possibility of predictions of the man-made accidents and catastrophic natural phenomena. The main goal of ongoing investigations is the solution of the task aimed at improving the safety of nuclear power installations and, in particular, of the fast neutron reactors with liquid-metal coolants, and the prevention of emergency modes arising from acoustic, magnetic and hydrodynamic resonance effects.

Potential role of liver enzymes levels as predictor markers of glucose metabolism disorders in Tunisian population.

PubMed

Bouhajja, Houda; Abdelhedi, Rania; Amouri, Ali; Hadj Kacem, Faten; Marrakchi, Rim; Safi, Wajdi; Mrabet, Houcem; Chtourou, Lassaad; Charfi, Nadia; Fourati, Mouna; Bensassi, Salwa; Jamoussi, Kamel; Abid, Mohamed; Ayadi, Hammadi; Feki, Mouna Mnif; Elleuch, Noura Bougacha

2018-03-10

The relationship between liver enzymes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is inconclusive. We aimed to evaluate the association between liver markers and risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and their discriminatory power for T2D prediction. This cross-sectional study enrolled 216 participants classified as normoglycemic, prediabetes, newly-diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes. All participants underwent anthropometric and biochemical measurements. The relationship between hepatic enzymes and glucose metabolism markers was evaluated by ANCOVA analyses. The associations between liver enzymes and incident carbohydrate metabolism disorders were analyzed through logistic regression and their discriminatory capacity for T2D by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. High alkaline phosphatase (AP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and aspartate aminotrasferase (AST) levels were independently related to decreased insulin sensitivity. Interestingly, higher AP level was significantly associated with increased risk of prediabetes (p=0.017), newly-diagnosed diabetes (p=0.004) and T2D (p=0.007). Elevated γGT level was an independent risk factor for T2D (p=0.032) and undiagnosed-T2D (p=0.010) in prediabetic and normoglycemic subjects, respectively. In ROC analysis, AP was a powerful predictor of incident diabetes and significantly improved T2D prediction. Liver enzymes within normal range, specifically AP levels, are associated with increased risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and significantly improved T2D prediction.

Bias and Stability of Single Variable Classifiers for Feature Ranking and Selection

PubMed Central

Fakhraei, Shobeir; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid; Fotouhi, Farshad

2014-01-01

Feature rankings are often used for supervised dimension reduction especially when discriminating power of each feature is of interest, dimensionality of dataset is extremely high, or computational power is limited to perform more complicated methods. In practice, it is recommended to start dimension reduction via simple methods such as feature rankings before applying more complex approaches. Single Variable Classifier (SVC) ranking is a feature ranking based on the predictive performance of a classifier built using only a single feature. While benefiting from capabilities of classifiers, this ranking method is not as computationally intensive as wrappers. In this paper, we report the results of an extensive study on the bias and stability of such feature ranking method. We study whether the classifiers influence the SVC rankings or the discriminative power of features themselves has a dominant impact on the final rankings. We show the common intuition of using the same classifier for feature ranking and final classification does not always result in the best prediction performance. We then study if heterogeneous classifiers ensemble approaches provide more unbiased rankings and if they improve final classification performance. Furthermore, we calculate an empirical prediction performance loss for using the same classifier in SVC feature ranking and final classification from the optimal choices. PMID:25177107

Bias and Stability of Single Variable Classifiers for Feature Ranking and Selection.

PubMed

Fakhraei, Shobeir; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid; Fotouhi, Farshad

2014-11-01

Feature rankings are often used for supervised dimension reduction especially when discriminating power of each feature is of interest, dimensionality of dataset is extremely high, or computational power is limited to perform more complicated methods. In practice, it is recommended to start dimension reduction via simple methods such as feature rankings before applying more complex approaches. Single Variable Classifier (SVC) ranking is a feature ranking based on the predictive performance of a classifier built using only a single feature. While benefiting from capabilities of classifiers, this ranking method is not as computationally intensive as wrappers. In this paper, we report the results of an extensive study on the bias and stability of such feature ranking method. We study whether the classifiers influence the SVC rankings or the discriminative power of features themselves has a dominant impact on the final rankings. We show the common intuition of using the same classifier for feature ranking and final classification does not always result in the best prediction performance. We then study if heterogeneous classifiers ensemble approaches provide more unbiased rankings and if they improve final classification performance. Furthermore, we calculate an empirical prediction performance loss for using the same classifier in SVC feature ranking and final classification from the optimal choices.

EffectorP: predicting fungal effector proteins from secretomes using machine learning.

PubMed

Sperschneider, Jana; Gardiner, Donald M; Dodds, Peter N; Tini, Francesco; Covarelli, Lorenzo; Singh, Karam B; Manners, John M; Taylor, Jennifer M

2016-04-01

Eukaryotic filamentous plant pathogens secrete effector proteins that modulate the host cell to facilitate infection. Computational effector candidate identification and subsequent functional characterization delivers valuable insights into plant-pathogen interactions. However, effector prediction in fungi has been challenging due to a lack of unifying sequence features such as conserved N-terminal sequence motifs. Fungal effectors are commonly predicted from secretomes based on criteria such as small size and cysteine-rich, which suffers from poor accuracy. We present EffectorP which pioneers the application of machine learning to fungal effector prediction. EffectorP improves fungal effector prediction from secretomes based on a robust signal of sequence-derived properties, achieving sensitivity and specificity of over 80%. Features that discriminate fungal effectors from secreted noneffectors are predominantly sequence length, molecular weight and protein net charge, as well as cysteine, serine and tryptophan content. We demonstrate that EffectorP is powerful when combined with in planta expression data for predicting high-priority effector candidates. EffectorP is the first prediction program for fungal effectors based on machine learning. Our findings will facilitate functional fungal effector studies and improve our understanding of effectors in plant-pathogen interactions. EffectorP is available at http://effectorp.csiro.au. © 2015 CSIRO New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

A community effort to assess and improve drug sensitivity prediction algorithms

PubMed Central

Costello, James C; Heiser, Laura M; Georgii, Elisabeth; Gönen, Mehmet; Menden, Michael P; Wang, Nicholas J; Bansal, Mukesh; Ammad-ud-din, Muhammad; Hintsanen, Petteri; Khan, Suleiman A; Mpindi, John-Patrick; Kallioniemi, Olli; Honkela, Antti; Aittokallio, Tero; Wennerberg, Krister; Collins, James J; Gallahan, Dan; Singer, Dinah; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Kaski, Samuel; Gray, Joe W; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

2015-01-01

Predicting the best treatment strategy from genomic information is a core goal of precision medicine. Here we focus on predicting drug response based on a cohort of genomic, epigenomic and proteomic profiling data sets measured in human breast cancer cell lines. Through a collaborative effort between the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) project, we analyzed a total of 44 drug sensitivity prediction algorithms. The top-performing approaches modeled nonlinear relationships and incorporated biological pathway information. We found that gene expression microarrays consistently provided the best predictive power of the individual profiling data sets; however, performance was increased by including multiple, independent data sets. We discuss the innovations underlying the top-performing methodology, Bayesian multitask MKL, and we provide detailed descriptions of all methods. This study establishes benchmarks for drug sensitivity prediction and identifies approaches that can be leveraged for the development of new methods. PMID:24880487

A community effort to assess and improve drug sensitivity prediction algorithms.

PubMed

Costello, James C; Heiser, Laura M; Georgii, Elisabeth; Gönen, Mehmet; Menden, Michael P; Wang, Nicholas J; Bansal, Mukesh; Ammad-ud-din, Muhammad; Hintsanen, Petteri; Khan, Suleiman A; Mpindi, John-Patrick; Kallioniemi, Olli; Honkela, Antti; Aittokallio, Tero; Wennerberg, Krister; Collins, James J; Gallahan, Dan; Singer, Dinah; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Kaski, Samuel; Gray, Joe W; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

2014-12-01

Predicting the best treatment strategy from genomic information is a core goal of precision medicine. Here we focus on predicting drug response based on a cohort of genomic, epigenomic and proteomic profiling data sets measured in human breast cancer cell lines. Through a collaborative effort between the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) project, we analyzed a total of 44 drug sensitivity prediction algorithms. The top-performing approaches modeled nonlinear relationships and incorporated biological pathway information. We found that gene expression microarrays consistently provided the best predictive power of the individual profiling data sets; however, performance was increased by including multiple, independent data sets. We discuss the innovations underlying the top-performing methodology, Bayesian multitask MKL, and we provide detailed descriptions of all methods. This study establishes benchmarks for drug sensitivity prediction and identifies approaches that can be leveraged for the development of new methods.

Predicting therapy success for treatment as usual and blended treatment in the domain of depression.

PubMed

van Breda, Ward; Bremer, Vincent; Becker, Dennis; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Funk, Burkhardt; Ruwaard, Jeroen; Riper, Heleen

2018-06-01

In this paper, we explore the potential of predicting therapy success for patients in mental health care. Such predictions can eventually improve the process of matching effective therapy types to individuals. In the EU project E-COMPARED, a variety of information is gathered about patients suffering from depression. We use this data, where 276 patients received treatment as usual and 227 received blended treatment, to investigate to what extent we are able to predict therapy success. We utilize different encoding strategies for preprocessing, varying feature selection techniques, and different statistical procedures for this purpose. Significant predictive power is found with average AUC values up to 0.7628 for treatment as usual and 0.7765 for blended treatment. Adding daily assessment data for blended treatment does currently not add predictive accuracy. Cost effectiveness analysis is needed to determine the added potential for real-world applications.

Update on results of SPRE testing at NASA Lewis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairelli, James E.; Swec, Diane M.; Wong, Wayne A.; Doeberling, Thomas J.; Madi, Frank J.

1991-01-01

The Space Power Research Engine (SPRE), a free-piston Stirling engine with a linear alternator, is being tested at NASA Lewis Research Center as part of the Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) as a candidate for high capacity space power. Results are presented from recent SPRE tests designed to investigated the effects of variation in the displacer seal clearance and piston centering port area on engine performance and dynamics. The impact of these variations on PV power and efficiency are presented. Comparisons of the displacer seal clearance tests results with HFAST code predictions show good agreement for PV power, but show poor agreement for PV efficiency. Correlations are presented relating the piston midstroke position to the dynamic Delta P across the piston and the centering port area. Test results indicate that a modest improvement in PV power and efficiency may be realized with a reduction in piston centering port area.

Update on results of SPRE testing at NASA Lewis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairelli, James E.; Swec, Diane M.; Wong, Wayne A.; Doeberling, Thomas J.; Madi, Frank J.

1991-01-01

The Space Power Research Engine (SPRE), a free-piston Stirling engine with a linear alternator, is being tested at NASA Lewis Research Center as part of the Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) as a candidate for high capacity space power. Results are presented from recent SPRE tests designed to investigate the effects of variation in the displacer seal clearance and piston centering port area on engine performance and dynamics. The effects of these variations on PV power and efficiency are presented. Comparisons of the displacer seal clearance test results with HFAST code predictions show good agreement for PV power but poor agreement for PV efficiency. Correlations are presented relating the piston mid-stroke position to the dynamic Delta P across the piston and the centering port area. Test results indicate that a modest improvement in PV power and efficiency may be realized with a reduction in piston centering port area.

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed tomore » estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.« less

Contribution of vertical strength and power to sprint performance in young male athletes.

PubMed

Meylan, C M P; Cronin, J; Oliver, J L; Hopkins, W G; Pinder, S

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the possible contribution of 1RM leg-press strength and jump peak power to 20-m sprint time in young athletes in three maturity groups based on age relative to predicted age of peak height velocity (PHV): Pre (- 2.5 to -1.0 years; n=25), Mid (- 1.0 to 0.5 years; n=26) and Post (0.5 to 2.0 years; n=15). Allometric scaling factors, representing percent difference in 20-m time per percent difference in strength and peak power, were derived by linear regression and were similar in the three maturity groups (-0.16%/% and -0.20%/% for strength and peak power, respectively). The moderate increase in sprint performance Pre to Mid PHV (5.7%) reduced to small (1.9%) and trivial but unclear (0.9%) magnitudes after adjustment for 1RM and peak power, while the moderate increase Mid to Post PHV (4.6%) were still moderate (3.4 and 3.0%) after adjustment. Thus percent differences in strength or power explained most of the maturity-related improvements in sprint performance before PHV age but only some improvements after PHV age. Factors in addition to strength and power should be identified and monitored for development of speed in athletes during puberty. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Methods of increasing net work output of organic Rankine cycles for low-grade waste heat recovery with a detailed analysis using a zeotropic working fluid mixture and scroll expander

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodland, Brandon Jay

An organic Rankine cycle (ORC) is a thermodynamic cycle that is well-suited for waste heat recovery. It is generally employed for waste heat with temperatures in the range of 80 °C -- 300 °C. When the application is strictly to convert waste heat into work, thermal efficiency is not recommended as a key performance metric. In such an application, maximization of the net power output should be the objective rather than maximization of the thermal efficiency. Two alternative cycle configurations that can increase the net power produced from a heat source with a given temperature and flow rate are proposed and analyzed. These cycle configurations are 1) an ORC with two-phase flash expansion and 2) an ORC with a zeotropic working fluid mixture (ZRC). A design-stage ORC model is presented for consistent comparison of multiple ORC configurations. The finite capacity of the heat source and heat sink fluids is a key consideration in this model. Of all working fluids studied for the baseline ORC, R134a and R245fa yield the highest net power output from a given heat source. Results of the design-stage model indicate that the ORC with two-phase flash expansion offers the most improvement over the baseline ORC. However, the level of improvement that could be achieved in practice is highly uncertain due to the requirement of highly efficient two-phase expansion. The ZRC shows improvement over the baseline as long as the condenser fan power requirement is not negligible. At the highest estimated condenser fan power, the ZRC shows the most improvement, while the ORC with flash expansion is no longer beneficial. The ZRC was selected for detailed study because it does not require two-phase expansion. An experimental test rig was used to evaluate baseline ORC performance with R134a and with R245fa. The ZRC was tested on the same rig with a mixture of 62.5% R134a and 37.5% R245fa. The tested expander is a minimally-modified, of-the-shelf automotive scroll compressor. The high performance to cost ratio of this machine lends significant credence to the economic viability of small-scale, low-temperature ORCs. The experimental campaign covered two heat source temperatures, the full range of pump and expander speeds, a full range of heat source and heat sink fluid flow rates, and various charge levels for the three working fluids. This resulted in 366 steady-state measurements. The steady state measurements are used to develop a detailed ORC model. The model is based on multi-fluid performance maps for the pump and expander and a robust moving-boundary heat exchanger model. It is validated against the measured data and predicts the net power output of the tested ORC with a mean absolute percent error of 7.16%. Comparisons made with the detailed model confirm the predictions of the design-stage model. Using a conservative estimate of the condenser fan power, 19.1% improvement of the ZRC over the baseline ORC is indicated for a source temperature of 80 °C. For a 100 °C source temperature, 13.8% improvement is indicated. A key feature of the detailed ORC model is that it calculates the charge inventory of the working fluid in each heat exchanger and line set. Total system charge can also be specified as a model input. The model can represent the total charge well for R134a at low measured charge levels. As the measured charge level increases, the model becomes less accurate. Reasons for the deviation of the model at higher charge are investigated. It is expected that a charge tuning scheme could be employed to improve the accuracy of model-predicted charge.

Use of the Posterior/Anterior Corneal Curvature Radii Ratio to Improve the Accuracy of Intraocular Lens Power Calculation: Eom's Adjustment Method.

PubMed

Kim, Mingue; Eom, Youngsub; Lee, Hwa; Suh, Young-Woo; Song, Jong Suk; Kim, Hyo Myung

2018-02-01

To evaluate the accuracy of IOL power calculation using adjusted corneal power according to the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio. Nine hundred twenty-eight eyes from 928 reference subjects and 158 eyes from 158 cataract patients who underwent phacoemulsification surgery were enrolled. Adjusted corneal power of cataract patients was calculated using the fictitious refractive index that was obtained from the geometric mean posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio of reference subjects and adjusted anterior and predicted posterior corneal curvature radii from conventional keratometry (K) using the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio. The median absolute error (MedAE) based on the adjusted corneal power was compared with that based on conventional K in the Haigis and SRK/T formulae. The geometric mean posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio was 0.808, and the fictitious refractive index of the cornea for a single Scheimpflug camera was 1.3275. The mean difference between adjusted corneal power and conventional K was 0.05 diopter (D). The MedAE based on adjusted corneal power (0.31 D in the Haigis formula and 0.32 D in the SRK/T formula) was significantly smaller than that based on conventional K (0.41 D and 0.40 D, respectively; P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The percentage of eyes with refractive prediction error within ± 0.50 D calculated using adjusted corneal power (74.7%) was significantly greater than that obtained using conventional K (62.7%) in the Haigis formula (P = 0.029). IOL power calculation using adjusted corneal power according to the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio provided more accurate refractive outcomes than calculation using conventional K.

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.; Fox, S. R.

1979-01-01

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pullup (from V sub max to V sub stall) and pushover (to sub V max for level flight.) The technique is an extension to non-linear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of lliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well. The technique was show to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. The drag and power values obtained from the initial least squares estimate are about 15% less than the 'true' values. If one takes into account the rather dirty wing and fuselage existing at the time of the tests, however, the predictions are reasonably accurate. The steady state lift measurements agree well with the extracted values only for small values of alpha. The predicted value of the lift at alpha = 0 is about 33% below that found in steady state tests while the predicted lift slope is 13% below the steady state value.

Potential for natural evaporation as a reliable renewable energy resource

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavusoglu, Ahmet-Hamdi; Chen, Xi; Gentine, Pierre

About 50% of the solar energy absorbed at the Earth’s surface drives evaporation, fueling the water cycle that affects various renewable energy resources, such as wind and hydropower. Recent advances demonstrate our nascent ability to convert evaporation energy into work, yet there is little understanding about the potential of this resource. Here in this paper we study the energy available from natural evaporation to predict the potential of this ubiquitous resource. We find that natural evaporation from open water surfaces could provide power densities comparable to current wind and solar technologies while cutting evaporative water losses by nearly half. Wemore » estimate up to 325 GW of power is potentially available in the United States. Strikingly, water’s large heat capacity is sufficient to control power output by storing excess energy when demand is low, thus reducing intermittency and improving reliability. Our findings motivate the improvement of materials and devices that convert energy from evaporation.« less

Vertical-axis wind turbine development in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templin, R. J.; Rangi, R. S.

1983-12-01

Recent Canadian progress in the development of the curved-blade Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) is described. Cooperation between government, industry and power utilities in the conduct of field trials, over several years, has demonstrated improved performance and reliability of grid-coupled turbines of this type. The rated power of the VAWTs currently under test ranges from 30 kW, in a wind/diesel powerplant, to 230 kW, in an installation on an island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Progress has also been made in understanding the basic aerodynamic behavior of the VAWT and theoretical methods for performance and load prediction have correspondingly improved. A brief description is given of 'Project EOLE', a cooperative project between the federal government and the utility Hydro-Quebec to develop and test, during the next two to three years, a 4 MW VAWT prototype, which will be coupled to the power grid at a location on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River.

Batteries for electric and hybrid-electric vehicles.

PubMed

Cairns, Elton J; Albertus, Paul

2010-01-01

Batteries have powered vehicles for more than a century, but recent advances, especially in lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, are bringing a new generation of electric-powered vehicles to the market. Key barriers to progress include system cost and lifetime, and derive from the difficulty of making a high-energy, high-power, and reversible electrochemical system. Indeed, although humans produce many mechanical and electrical systems, the number of reversible electrochemical systems is very limited. System costs may be brought down by using cathode materials less expensive than those presently employed (e.g., sulfur or air), but reversibility will remain a key challenge. Continued improvements in the ability to synthesize and characterize materials at desired length scales, as well as to use computations to predict new structures and their properties, are facilitating the development of a better understanding and improved systems. Battery research is a fascinating area for development as well as a key enabler for future technologies, including advanced transportation systems with minimal environmental impact.

Potential for natural evaporation as a reliable renewable energy resource

DOE PAGES

Cavusoglu, Ahmet-Hamdi; Chen, Xi; Gentine, Pierre; ...

2017-09-26

About 50% of the solar energy absorbed at the Earth’s surface drives evaporation, fueling the water cycle that affects various renewable energy resources, such as wind and hydropower. Recent advances demonstrate our nascent ability to convert evaporation energy into work, yet there is little understanding about the potential of this resource. Here in this paper we study the energy available from natural evaporation to predict the potential of this ubiquitous resource. We find that natural evaporation from open water surfaces could provide power densities comparable to current wind and solar technologies while cutting evaporative water losses by nearly half. Wemore » estimate up to 325 GW of power is potentially available in the United States. Strikingly, water’s large heat capacity is sufficient to control power output by storing excess energy when demand is low, thus reducing intermittency and improving reliability. Our findings motivate the improvement of materials and devices that convert energy from evaporation.« less

A chemical reactor network for oxides of nitrogen emission prediction in gas turbine combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Nguyen Thanh

2014-06-01

This study presents the use of a new chemical reactor network (CRN) model and non-uniform injectors to predict the NOx emission pollutant in gas turbine combustor. The CRN uses information from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) combustion analysis with two injectors of CH4-air mixture. The injectors of CH4-air mixture have different lean equivalence ratio, and they control fuel flow to stabilize combustion and adjust combustor's equivalence ratio. Non-uniform injector is applied to improve the burning process of the turbine combustor. The results of the new CRN for NOx prediction in the gas turbine combustor show very good agreement with the experimental data from Korea Electric Power Research Institute.

A network of molecular switches controls the activation of the two-component response regulator NtrC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanatta, Dan K.; Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Pande, Vijay S.

2015-06-01

Recent successes in simulating protein structure and folding dynamics have demonstrated the power of molecular dynamics to predict the long timescale behaviour of proteins. Here, we extend and improve these methods to predict molecular switches that characterize conformational change pathways between the active and inactive state of nitrogen regulatory protein C (NtrC). By employing unbiased Markov state model-based molecular dynamics simulations, we construct a dynamic picture of the activation pathways of this key bacterial signalling protein that is consistent with experimental observations and predicts new mutants that could be used for validation of the mechanism. Moreover, these results suggest a novel mechanistic paradigm for conformational switching.

Project description and crowdfunding success: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Zhou, Mi Jamie; Lu, Baozhou; Fan, Weiguo Patrick; Wang, G Alan

2018-01-01

Existing research on antecedent of funding success mainly focuses on basic project properties such as funding goal, duration, and project category. In this study, we view the process by which project owners raise funds from backers as a persuasion process through project descriptions. Guided by the unimodel theory of persuasion, this study identifies three exemplary antecedents (length, readability, and tone) from the content of project descriptions and two antecedents (past experience and past expertise) from the trustworthy cue of project descriptions. We then investigate their impacts on funding success. Using data collected from Kickstarter, a popular crowdfunding platform, we find that these antecedents are significantly associated with funding success. Empirical results show that the proposed model that incorporated these antecedents can achieve an accuracy of 73 % (70 % in F-measure). The result represents an improvement of roughly 14 percentage points over the baseline model based on informed guessing and 4 percentage points improvement over the mainstream model based on basic project properties (or 44 % improvement of mainstream's performance over informed guessing). The proposed model also has superior true positive and true negative rates. We also investigate the timeliness of project data and find that old project data is gradually becoming less relevant and losing predictive power to newly created projects. Overall, this study provides evidence that antecedents identified from project descriptions have incremental predictive power and can help project owners evaluate and improve the likelihood of funding success.

Keep it simple? Predicting primary health care costs with clinical morbidity measures

PubMed Central

Brilleman, Samuel L.; Gravelle, Hugh; Hollinghurst, Sandra; Purdy, Sarah; Salisbury, Chris; Windmeijer, Frank

2014-01-01

Models of the determinants of individuals’ primary care costs can be used to set capitation payments to providers and to test for horizontal equity. We compare the ability of eight measures of patient morbidity and multimorbidity to predict future primary care costs and examine capitation payments based on them. The measures were derived from four morbidity descriptive systems: 17 chronic diseases in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF); 17 chronic diseases in the Charlson scheme; 114 Expanded Diagnosis Clusters (EDCs); and 68 Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs). These were applied to patient records of 86,100 individuals in 174 English practices. For a given disease description system, counts of diseases and sets of disease dummy variables had similar explanatory power. The EDC measures performed best followed by the QOF and ACG measures. The Charlson measures had the worst performance but still improved markedly on models containing only age, gender, deprivation and practice effects. Comparisons of predictive power for different morbidity measures were similar for linear and exponential models, but the relative predictive power of the models varied with the morbidity measure. Capitation payments for an individual patient vary considerably with the different morbidity measures included in the cost model. Even for the best fitting model large differences between expected cost and capitation for some types of patient suggest incentives for patient selection. Models with any of the morbidity measures show higher cost for more deprived patients but the positive effect of deprivation on cost was smaller in better fitting models. PMID:24657375

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with bispectrum and power spectrum from upcoming optical and radio surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiannis, Dionysios; Lazanu, Andrei; Liguori, Michele; Raccanelli, Alvise; Bartolo, Nicola; Verde, Licia

2018-07-01

We forecast constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and bias parameters from measurements of galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum in future radio continuum and optical surveys. In the galaxy bispectrum, we consider a comprehensive list of effects, including the bias expansion for non-Gaussian initial conditions up to second order, redshift space distortions, redshift uncertainties and theoretical errors. These effects are all combined in a single PNG forecast for the first time. Moreover, we improve the bispectrum modelling over previous forecasts, by accounting for trispectrum contributions. All effects have an impact on final predicted bounds, which varies with the type of survey. We find that the bispectrum can lead to improvements up to a factor ˜5 over bounds based on the power spectrum alone, leading to significantly better constraints for local-type PNG, with respect to current limits from Planck. Future radio and photometric surveys could obtain a measurement error of σ (f_{NL}^{loc}) ≈ 0.2. In the case of equilateral PNG, galaxy bispectrum can improve upon present bounds only if significant improvements in the redshift determinations of future, large volume, photometric or radio surveys could be achieved. For orthogonal non-Gaussianity, expected constraints are generally comparable to current ones.

Constraining Primordial non-Gaussianity with Bispectrum and Power Spectum from Upcoming Optical and Radio Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiannis, Dionysios; Lazanu, Andrei; Liguori, Michele; Raccanelli, Alvise; Bartolo, Nicola; Verde, Licia

2018-04-01

We forecast constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and bias parameters from measurements of galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum in future radio continuum and optical surveys. In the galaxy bispectrum, we consider a comprehensive list of effects, including the bias expansion for non-Gaussian initial conditions up to second order, redshift space distortions, redshift uncertainties and theoretical errors. These effects are all combined in a single PNG forecast for the first time. Moreover, we improve the bispectrum modelling over previous forecasts, by accounting for trispectrum contributions. All effects have an impact on final predicted bounds, which varies with the type of survey. We find that the bispectrum can lead to improvements up to a factor ˜5 over bounds based on the power spectrum alone, leading to significantly better constraints for local-type PNG, with respect to current limits from Planck. Future radio and photometric surveys could obtain a measurement error of σ (f_{NL}^{loc}) ≈ 0.2. In the case of equilateral PNG, galaxy bispectrum can improve upon present bounds only if significant improvements in the redshift determinations of future, large volume, photometric or radio surveys could be achieved. For orthogonal non-Gaussianity, expected constraints are generally comparable to current ones.

Sexual relationship power and depression among HIV-infected women in Rural Uganda.

PubMed

Hatcher, Abigail M; Tsai, Alexander C; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R; Weiser, Sheri D

2012-01-01

Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.07) and high power (b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women.

The role of family, peers and school perceptions in predicting involvement in youth violence.

PubMed

Laufer, Avital; Harel, Yossi

2003-01-01

This study explored the relative importance of family, peers and school in predicting youth violence. The analysis was done on a nationally representative sample included 8,394 students from grade 6th-10th in Israel. Measures of youth violence included bullying, physical fights and weapon carrying. The findings suggested that all three social systems had significant relations with youth violence, respectively. Variables found to predict violence were: Family-lack of parental support regarding school; Peers-Lack of social integration or too many evenings out with friends; School-feeling of school alienation, low academic achievement and perceptions of frequent acts of violence in school. School perceptions had the strongest predicting power. Findings emphasized the importance of focusing on improving the daily school experience in reducing youth violence.

The Technology of Suppressing Harmonics with Complex Neural Network is Applied to Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Li, Zhan-Ying; Wang, Yan-ping; Li, Yang; Zong, Ke-yong

2018-03-01

According to the traits of harmonics in microgrid, a new CANN controller which combines BP and RBF neural network is proposed to control APF to detect and suppress harmonics. This controller has the function of current prediction. By simulation in Matlab / Simulink, this design can shorten the delay time nearly 0.02s (a power supply current cycle) in comparison with the traditional controller based on ip-iq method. The new controller also has higher compensation accuracy and better dynamic tracking traits, it can greatly suppress the harmonics and improve the power quality.

Jet Mixing Noise Scaling Laws SHJAR Data Vs. Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khavaran, Abbas; Bridges, James

2008-01-01

High quality jet noise spectral data measured at the anechoic dome at the NASA Glenn Research Center is used to examine a number of jet noise scaling laws. Configurations considered in the present study consist of convergent as well as convergent-divergent axisymmetric nozzles. The spectral measurements are shown in narrow band and cover 8193 equally spaced points in a typical Strouhal number range of (0.01 10.0). Measurements are reported as lossless (i.e. atmospheric attenuation is added to as-measured data), and at 24 equally spaced angles (50deg to 165deg) on a 100-diameter arc. Following the work of Viswanathan [Ref. 1], velocity power laws are derived using a least square fit on spectral power density as a function of jet temperature and observer angle. The goodness of the fit is studied at each angle, and alternative relationships are proposed to improve the spectral collapse when certain conditions are met. On the application side, power laws are extremely useful in identifying components from various noise generation mechanisms. From this analysis, jet noise prediction tools can be developed with physics derived from the different spectral components.

Development of natural gas rotary engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mack, J. R.

1991-08-01

Development of natural gas-fueled rotary engines was pursued on the parallel paths of converted Mazda automotive engines and of establishing technology and demonstration of a test model of a larger John Deer Technologies Incorporated (JDTI) rotary engine with power capability of 250 HP per power section for future production of multi-rotor engines with power ratings 250, 500, and 1000 HP and upward. Mazda engines were converted to natural gas and were characterized by a laboratory which was followed by nearly 12,000 hours of testing in three different field installations. To develop technology for the larger JDTI engine, laboratory and engine materials testing was accomplished. Extensive combustion analysis computer codes were modified, verified, and utilized to predict engine performance, to guide parameters for actual engine design, and to identify further improvements. A single rotor test engine of 5.8 liter displacement was designed for natural gas operation based on the JDTI 580 engine series. This engine was built and tested. It ran well and essentially achieved predicted performance. Lean combustion and low NOW emission were demonstrated.

Prediction of beef carcass and meat quality traits from factors characterising the rearing management system applied during the whole life of heifers.

PubMed

Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

2018-06-01

In this study, four prediction models were developed by logistic regression using individual data from 96 heifers. Carcass and sensory rectus abdominis quality clusters were identified then predicted using the rearing factors data. The obtained models from rearing factors applied during the fattening period were compared to those characterising the heifers' whole life. The highest prediction power of carcass and meat quality clusters were obtained from the models considering the whole life, with success rates of 62.8% and 54.9%, respectively. Rearing factors applied during both pre-weaning and fattening periods influenced carcass and meat quality. According to models, carcass traits were improved when heifer's mother was older for first calving, calves ingested concentrates during pasture preceding weaning and heifers were slaughtered older. Meat traits were improved by the genetic of heifers' parents (i.e., calving ease and early muscularity) and when heifers were slaughtered older. A management of carcass and meat quality traits is possible at different periods of the heifers' life. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MLBCD: a machine learning tool for big clinical data.

PubMed

Luo, Gang

2015-01-01

Predictive modeling is fundamental for extracting value from large clinical data sets, or "big clinical data," advancing clinical research, and improving healthcare. Machine learning is a powerful approach to predictive modeling. Two factors make machine learning challenging for healthcare researchers. First, before training a machine learning model, the values of one or more model parameters called hyper-parameters must typically be specified. Due to their inexperience with machine learning, it is hard for healthcare researchers to choose an appropriate algorithm and hyper-parameter values. Second, many clinical data are stored in a special format. These data must be iteratively transformed into the relational table format before conducting predictive modeling. This transformation is time-consuming and requires computing expertise. This paper presents our vision for and design of MLBCD (Machine Learning for Big Clinical Data), a new software system aiming to address these challenges and facilitate building machine learning predictive models using big clinical data. The paper describes MLBCD's design in detail. By making machine learning accessible to healthcare researchers, MLBCD will open the use of big clinical data and increase the ability to foster biomedical discovery and improve care.

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

PubMed

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Causal inference in economics and marketing

PubMed Central

Varian, Hal R.

2016-01-01

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

Feasibility of large-scale power plants based on thermoelectric effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liping

2014-12-01

Heat resources of small temperature difference are easily accessible, free and enormous on the Earth. Thermoelectric effects provide the technology for converting these heat resources directly into electricity. We present designs for electricity generators based on thermoelectric effects that utilize heat resources of small temperature difference, e.g., ocean water at different depths and geothermal resources, and conclude that large-scale power plants based on thermoelectric effects are feasible and economically competitive. The key observation is that the power factor of thermoelectric materials, unlike the figure of merit, can be improved by orders of magnitude upon laminating good conductors and good thermoelectric materials. The predicted large-scale power generators based on thermoelectric effects, if validated, will have the advantages of the scalability, renewability, and free supply of heat resources of small temperature difference on the Earth.

An Overview of Different Approaches for Battery Lifetime Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Liang, Jun; Zhang, Feng

2017-05-01

With the rapid development of renewable energy and the continuous improvement of the power supply reliability, battery energy storage technology has been wildly used in power system. Battery degradation is a nonnegligible issue when battery energy storage system participates in system design and operation strategies optimization. The health assessment and remaining cycle life estimation of battery gradually become a challenge and research hotspot in many engineering areas. In this paper, the battery capacity falling and internal resistance increase are presented on the basis of chemical reactions inside the battery. The general life prediction models are analysed from several aspects. The characteristics of them as well as their application scenarios are discussed in the survey. In addition, a novel weighted Ah ageing model with the introduction of the Ragone curve is proposed to provide a detailed understanding of the ageing processes. A rigorous proof of the mathematical theory about the proposed model is given in the paper.

A 300-mV 220-nW event-driven ADC with real-time QRS detection for wearable ECG sensors.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Lian, Yong

2014-12-01

This paper presents an ultra-low-power event-driven analog-to-digital converter (ADC) with real-time QRS detection for wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) sensors in wireless body sensor network (WBSN) applications. Two QRS detection algorithms, pulse-triggered (PUT) and time-assisted PUT (t-PUT), are proposed based on the level-crossing events generated from the ADC. The PUT detector achieves 97.63% sensitivity and 97.33% positive prediction in simulation on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database. The t-PUT improves the sensitivity and positive prediction to 97.76% and 98.59% respectively. Fabricated in 0.13 μm CMOS technology, the ADC with QRS detector consumes only 220 nW measured under 300 mV power supply, making it the first nanoWatt compact analog-to-information (A2I) converter with embedded QRS detector.

Spin Dependence of η Meson Production in Proton-Proton Collisions Close to Threshold.

PubMed

Adlarson, P; Augustyniak, W; Bardan, W; Bashkanov, M; Bass, S D; Bergmann, F S; Berłowski, M; Bondar, A; Büscher, M; Calén, H; Ciepał, I; Clement, H; Czerwiński, E; Demmich, K; Engels, R; Erven, A; Erven, W; Eyrich, W; Fedorets, P; Föhl, K; Fransson, K; Goldenbaum, F; Goswami, A; Grigoryev, K; Gullström, C-O; Heijkenskjöld, L; Hejny, V; Hüsken, N; Jarczyk, L; Johansson, T; Kamys, B; Kemmerling, G; Khatri, G; Khoukaz, A; Khreptak, O; Kirillov, D A; Kistryn, S; Kleines, H; Kłos, B; Krzemień, W; Kulessa, P; Kupść, A; Kuzmin, A; Lalwani, K; Lersch, D; Lorentz, B; Magiera, A; Maier, R; Marciniewski, P; Mariański, B; Morsch, H-P; Moskal, P; Ohm, H; Parol, W; Perez Del Rio, E; Piskunov, N M; Prasuhn, D; Pszczel, D; Pysz, K; Pyszniak, A; Ritman, J; Roy, A; Rudy, Z; Rundel, O; Sawant, S; Schadmand, S; Schätti-Ozerianska, I; Sefzick, T; Serdyuk, V; Shwartz, B; Sitterberg, K; Skorodko, T; Skurzok, M; Smyrski, J; Sopov, V; Stassen, R; Stepaniak, J; Stephan, E; Sterzenbach, G; Stockhorst, H; Ströher, H; Szczurek, A; Trzciński, A; Wolke, M; Wrońska, A; Wüstner, P; Yamamoto, A; Zabierowski, J; Zieliński, M J; Złomańczuk, J; Żuprański, P; Żurek, M

2018-01-12

Taking advantage of the high acceptance and axial symmetry of the WASA-at-COSY detector, and the high polarization degree of the proton beam of COSY, the reaction p[over →]p→ppη has been measured close to threshold to explore the analyzing power A_{y}. The angular distribution of A_{y} is determined with the precision improved by more than 1 order of magnitude with respect to previous results, allowing a first accurate comparison with theoretical predictions. The determined analyzing power is consistent with zero for an excess energy of Q=15  MeV, signaling s-wave production with no evidence for higher partial waves. At Q=72  MeV the data reveal strong interference of Ps and Pp partial waves and cancellation of (Pp)^{2} and Ss^{*}Sd contributions. These results rule out the presently available theoretical predictions for the production mechanism of the η meson.

An intelligent load shedding scheme using neural networks and neuro-fuzzy.

PubMed

Haidar, Ahmed M A; Mohamed, Azah; Al-Dabbagh, Majid; Hussain, Aini; Masoum, Mohammad

2009-12-01

Load shedding is some of the essential requirement for maintaining security of modern power systems, particularly in competitive energy markets. This paper proposes an intelligent scheme for fast and accurate load shedding using neural networks for predicting the possible loss of load at the early stage and neuro-fuzzy for determining the amount of load shed in order to avoid a cascading outage. A large scale electrical power system has been considered to validate the performance of the proposed technique in determining the amount of load shed. The proposed techniques can provide tools for improving the reliability and continuity of power supply. This was confirmed by the results obtained in this research of which sample results are given in this paper.

Leaders’ Behaviors Matter: The Role of Delegation in Promoting Employees’ Feedback-Seeking Behavior

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiyang; Qian, Jing; Wang, Bin; Jin, Zhuyun; Wang, Jiachen; Wang, Yu

2017-01-01

Feedback helps employees to evaluate and improve their performance, but there have been relatively few empirical investigations into how leaders can encourage employees to seek feedback. To fill this gap we examined the relationship among delegation, psychological empowerment, and feedback-seeking behavior. We hypothesized that delegation promotes feedback-seeking behavior by psychologically empowering subordinates. In addition, power distance moderates the relationship between delegation and feedback-seeking behavior. Analysis of data from a sample of 248 full-time employees of a hotel group in northern China indicated that delegation predicts subordinates’ feedback seeking for individuals with moderate and high power distance orientation, but not for those with low power distance orientation. The mediation hypothesis was also supported. PMID:28638357

Leaders' Behaviors Matter: The Role of Delegation in Promoting Employees' Feedback-Seeking Behavior.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiyang; Qian, Jing; Wang, Bin; Jin, Zhuyun; Wang, Jiachen; Wang, Yu

2017-01-01

Feedback helps employees to evaluate and improve their performance, but there have been relatively few empirical investigations into how leaders can encourage employees to seek feedback. To fill this gap we examined the relationship among delegation, psychological empowerment, and feedback-seeking behavior. We hypothesized that delegation promotes feedback-seeking behavior by psychologically empowering subordinates. In addition, power distance moderates the relationship between delegation and feedback-seeking behavior. Analysis of data from a sample of 248 full-time employees of a hotel group in northern China indicated that delegation predicts subordinates' feedback seeking for individuals with moderate and high power distance orientation, but not for those with low power distance orientation. The mediation hypothesis was also supported.

Survival Regression Modeling Strategies in CVD Prediction.

PubMed

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Sardarinia, Mahsa; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-04-01

A fundamental part of prevention is prediction. Potential predictors are the sine qua non of prediction models. However, whether incorporating novel predictors to prediction models could be directly translated to added predictive value remains an area of dispute. The difference between the predictive power of a predictive model with (enhanced model) and without (baseline model) a certain predictor is generally regarded as an indicator of the predictive value added by that predictor. Indices such as discrimination and calibration have long been used in this regard. Recently, the use of added predictive value has been suggested while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models with and without novel biomarkers. User-friendly statistical software capable of implementing novel statistical procedures is conspicuously lacking. This shortcoming has restricted implementation of such novel model assessment methods. We aimed to construct Stata commands to help researchers obtain the aforementioned statistical indices. We have written Stata commands that are intended to help researchers obtain the following. 1, Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test; 2, Cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index (NRI), relative absolute integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI), and survival-based regression analyses. We applied the commands to real data on women participating in the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information relating to a family history of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD), waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of Framingham's general CVD risk algorithm. The command is adpredsurv for survival models. Herein we have described the Stata package "adpredsurv" for calculation of the Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test as well as cut point-free and cut point-based NRI, relative and absolute IDI, and survival-based regression analyses. We hope this work encourages the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of the emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER...2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 09/2015–11/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s

Resting-state sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) power predicts the ability to up-regulate SMR in an EEG-instrumental conditioning paradigm.

PubMed

Reichert, Johanna Louise; Kober, Silvia Erika; Neuper, Christa; Wood, Guilherme

2015-11-01

Instrumental conditioning of EEG activity (EEG-IC) is a promising method for improvement and rehabilitation of cognitive functions. However, it has been found that even healthy adults are not always able to learn how to regulate their brain activity during EEG-IC. In the present study, the role of a neurophysiological predictor of EEG-IC learning performance, the resting-state power of sensorimotor rhythm (rs-SMR, 12-15Hz), was investigated. Eyes-open and eyes-closed rs-SMR power was assessed before N=28 healthy adults underwent 10 training sessions of instrumental SMR conditioning (ISC), in which participants should learn to voluntarily increase their SMR power by means of audio-visual feedback. A control group of N=19 participants received gamma (40-43Hz) or sham EEG-IC. N=19 of the ISC participants could be classified as "responders" as they were able to increase SMR power during training sessions, while N=9 participants ("non-responders") were not able to increase SMR power. Rs-SMR power in responders before start of ISC was higher in widespread parieto-occipital areas than in non-responders. A discriminant analysis indicated that eyes-open rs-SMR power in a central brain region specifically predicted later ISC performance, but not an increase of SMR in the control group. Together, these findings indicate that rs-SMR power is a specific and easy-to-measure predictor of later ISC learning performance. The assessment of factors that influence the ability to regulate brain activity is of high relevance, as it could be used to avoid potentially frustrating and expensive EEG-IC training sessions for participants who have a low chance of success. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tele-ICU and Patient Safety Considerations.

PubMed

Hassan, Erkan

The tele-ICU is designed to leverage, not replace, the need for bedside clinical expertise in the diagnosis, treatment, and assessment of various critical illnesses. Tele-ICUs are primarily decentralized or centralized models with differing advantages and disadvantages. The centralized model has sufficiently powered published data to be associated with improved mortality and ICU length of stay in a cost-effective manner. Factors associated with improved clinical outcomes include improved compliance with best practices; providing off-hours implementation of the bedside physician's care plan; and identification of and rapid response to physiological instability (initial clinical review within 1 hour) and rapid response to alerts, alarms, or direct notification by bedside clinicians. With improved communication and frequent review of patients between the tele-ICU and the bedside clinicians, the bedside clinician can provide the care that only they can provide. Although technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, technology alone will most likely not improve clinical outcomes. Technology will enable us to process real or near real-time data into complex and powerful predictive algorithms. However, the remote and bedside teams must work collaboratively to develop care processes to better monitor, prioritize, standardize, and expedite care to drive greater efficiencies and improve patient safety.

The Power of Implicit Social Relation in Rating Prediction of Social Recommender Systems

PubMed Central

Reafee, Waleed; Salim, Naomie; Khan, Atif

2016-01-01

The explosive growth of social networks in recent times has presented a powerful source of information to be utilized as an extra source for assisting in the social recommendation problems. The social recommendation methods that are based on probabilistic matrix factorization improved the recommendation accuracy and partly solved the cold-start and data sparsity problems. However, these methods only exploited the explicit social relations and almost completely ignored the implicit social relations. In this article, we firstly propose an algorithm to extract the implicit relation in the undirected graphs of social networks by exploiting the link prediction techniques. Furthermore, we propose a new probabilistic matrix factorization method to alleviate the data sparsity problem through incorporating explicit friendship and implicit friendship. We evaluate our proposed approach on two real datasets, Last.Fm and Douban. The experimental results show that our method performs much better than the state-of-the-art approaches, which indicates the importance of incorporating implicit social relations in the recommendation process to address the poor prediction accuracy. PMID:27152663

Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

2014-05-01

The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during nighttime to well mixed conditions during the day presents a big challenge to NWP models. Fast decrease and successive increase in hub-height wind speed after sunrise, and the formation of nocturnal low level jets will be discussed. For PV, the life cycle of low stratus clouds and fog is crucial. Capturing these processes correctly depends on the accurate simulation of diffusion or vertical momentum transport and the interaction with other atmospheric and soil processes within the numerical weather model. Results from Single Column Model simulations and 3d case studies will be presented. Emphasis is placed on wind forecasts; however, some references to highlights concerning the PV-developments will also be given. *) ORKA: Optimierung von Ensembleprognosen regenerativer Einspeisung für den Kürzestfristbereich am Anwendungsbeispiel der Netzsicherheitsrechnungen **) EWeLiNE: Erstellung innovativer Wetter- und Leistungsprognosemodelle für die Netzintegration wetterabhängiger Energieträger, www.projekt-eweline.de

The aerodynamic cost of flight in the short-tailed fruit bat (Carollia perspicillata): comparing theory with measurement

PubMed Central

von Busse, Rhea; Waldman, Rye M.; Swartz, Sharon M.; Voigt, Christian C.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Aerodynamic theory has long been used to predict the power required for animal flight, but widely used models contain many simplifications. It has been difficult to ascertain how closely biological reality matches model predictions, largely because of the technical challenges of accurately measuring the power expended when an animal flies. We designed a study to measure flight speed-dependent aerodynamic power directly from the kinetic energy contained in the wake of bats flying in a wind tunnel. We compared these measurements with two theoretical predictions that have been used for several decades in diverse fields of vertebrate biology and to metabolic measurements from a previous study using the same individuals. A high-accuracy displaced laser sheet stereo particle image velocimetry experimental design measured the wake velocities in the Trefftz plane behind four bats flying over a range of speeds (3–7 m s−1). We computed the aerodynamic power contained in the wake using a novel interpolation method and compared these results with the power predicted by Pennycuick's and Rayner's models. The measured aerodynamic power falls between the two theoretical predictions, demonstrating that the models effectively predict the appropriate range of flight power, but the models do not accurately predict minimum power or maximum range speeds. Mechanical efficiency—the ratio of aerodynamic power output to metabolic power input—varied from 5.9% to 9.8% for the same individuals, changing with flight speed. PMID:24718450

Developing a comprehensive training curriculum for integrated predictive maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-03-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of key technologies such as vibration analysis, infrared thermography, and oil analysis not as singular entities, but as a toolbox resource from which to address overall equipment and plant reliability in a structured program and decision environment.

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Smart EV Energy Management System to Support Grid Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin

Under smart grid scenarios, the advanced sensing and metering technologies have been applied to the legacy power grid to improve the system observability and the real-time situational awareness. Meanwhile, there is increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as renewable generations, electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage system (BESS), etc., being integrated into the power system. However, the integration of EVs, which can be modeled as controllable mobile energy devices, brings both challenges and opportunities to the grid planning and energy management, due to the intermittency of renewable generation, uncertainties of EV driver behaviors, etc. This dissertation aims to solve the real-time EV energy management problem in order to improve the overall grid efficiency, reliability and economics, using online and predictive optimization strategies. Most of the previous research on EV energy management strategies and algorithms are based on simplified models with unrealistic assumptions that the EV charging behaviors are perfectly known or following known distributions, such as the arriving time, leaving time and energy consumption values, etc. These approaches fail to obtain the optimal solutions in real-time because of the system uncertainties. Moreover, there is lack of data-driven strategy that performs online and predictive scheduling for EV charging behaviors under microgrid scenarios. Therefore, we develop an online predictive EV scheduling framework, considering uncertainties of renewable generation, building load and EV driver behaviors, etc., based on real-world data. A kernel-based estimator is developed to predict the charging session parameters in real-time with improved estimation accuracy. The efficacy of various optimization strategies that are supported by this framework, including valley-filling, cost reduction, event-based control, etc., has been demonstrated. In addition, the existing simulation-based approaches do not consider a variety of practical concerns of implementing such a smart EV energy management system, including the driver preferences, communication protocols, data models, and customized integration of existing standards to provide grid services. Therefore, this dissertation also solves these issues by designing and implementing a scalable system architecture to capture the user preferences, enable multi-layer communication and control, and finally improve the system reliability and interoperability.

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory; Landsfeld, Marty; Hoell, Andrew; Pedreros, Diego; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Tadesse, Tsegae;

Rise time analysis of pulsed klystron-modulator for efficiency improvement of linear colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, J. S.; Cho, M. H.; Namkung, W.; Chung, K. H.; Shintake, T.; Matsumoto, H.

2000-04-01

In linear accelerators, the periods during the rise and fall of a klystron-modulator pulse cannot be used to generate RF power. Thus, these periods need to be minimized to get high efficiency, especially in large-scale machines. In this paper, we present a simplified and generalized voltage rise time function of a pulsed modulator with a high-power klystron load using the equivalent circuit analysis method. The optimum pulse waveform is generated when this pulsed power system is tuned with a damping factor of ˜0.85. The normalized rise time chart presented in this paper allows one to predict the rise time and pulse shape of the pulsed power system in general. The results can be summarized as follows: The large distributed capacitance in the pulse tank and operating parameters, Vs× Tp , where Vs is load voltage and Tp is the pulse width, are the main factors determining the pulse rise time in the high-power RF system. With an RF pulse compression scheme, up to ±3% ripple of the modulator voltage is allowed without serious loss of compressor efficiency, which allows the modulator efficiency to be improved as well. The wiring inductance should be minimized to get the fastest rise time.

HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the forecasts against observed discharge. Analysis should be specifically oriented to the maximisation of hydroelectricity production. Thus, verification metrics should include economic measures like cost loss approaches. The final step will include the transfer of the HEPS system to several hydropower systems, the connection with the energy market prices and the development of probabilistic multi-reservoir production and management optimizations guidelines. The baseline model chain yielding three-days forecasts established for a hydropower system in southern-Switzerland will be presented alongside with the work-plan to achieve seasonal ensemble predictions.

Improved design of prodromal Alzheimer's disease trials through cohort enrichment and surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Macklin, Eric A; Blacker, Deborah; Hyman, Bradley T; Betensky, Rebecca A

2013-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) trials initiated during or before the prodrome are costly and lengthy because patients are enrolled long before clinical symptoms are apparent, when disease progression is slow. We hypothesized that design of such trials could be improved by: 1) selecting individuals at moderate near-term risk of progression to AD dementia (the current clinical standard) and 2) by using short-term surrogate endpoints that predict progression to AD dementia. We used a longitudinal cohort of older, initially non-demented, community-dwelling participants (n = 358) to derive selection criteria and surrogate endpoints and tested them in an independent national data set (n = 6,243). To identify a "mid-risk" subgroup, we applied conditional tree-based survival models to Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale scores and common neuropsychological tests. In the validation cohort, a time-to-AD dementia trial applying these mid-risk selection criteria to a pool of all non-demented individuals could achieve equivalent power with 47% fewer participants than enrolling at random from that pool. We evaluated surrogate endpoints measureable over two years of follow-up based on cross-validated concordance between predictions from Cox models and observed time to AD dementia. The best performing surrogate, rate of change in CDR sum-of-boxes, did not reduce the trial duration required for equivalent power using estimates from the validation cohort, but alternative surrogates with better ability to predict time to AD dementia should be able to do so. The approach tested here might improve efficiency of prodromal AD trials using other potential measures and could be generalized to other diseases with long prodromal phases.

Improved design of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease trials through cohort enrichment and surrogate endpoints

PubMed Central

Macklin, Eric A.; Blacker, Deborah; Hyman, Bradley T.; Betensky, Rebecca A.

2013-01-01

Summary Alzheimer’s disease (AD) trials initiated during or before the prodrome are costly and lengthy because patients are enrolled long before clinical symptoms are apparent, when disease progression is slow. We hypothesized that design of such trials could be improved by: (1) selecting individuals at moderate near-term risk of progression to AD dementia (the current clinical standard) and (2) by using short-term surrogate endpoints that predict progression to AD dementia. We used a longitudinal cohort of older, initially non-demented, community-dwelling participants (n=358) to derive selection criteria and surrogate endpoints and tested them in an independent national data set (n=6,243). To identify a “mid-risk” subgroup, we applied conditional tree-based survival models to Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale scores and common neuropsychological tests. In the validation cohort, a time-to-AD dementia trial applying these mid-risk selection criteria to a pool of all non-demented individuals could achieve equivalent power with 47% fewer participants than enrolling at random from that pool. We evaluated surrogate endpoints measureable over two years of follow-up based on cross-validated concordance between predictions from Cox models and observed time to AD dementia. The best performing surrogate, rate of change in CDR sum-of-boxes, did not reduce the trial duration required for equivalent power using estimates from the validation cohort, but alternative surrogates with better ability to predict time to AD dementia should be able to do so. The approach tested here might improve efficiency of prodromal AD trials using other potential measures and could be generalized to other diseases with long prodromal phases. PMID:23629586

New Computational Methods for the Prediction and Analysis of Helicopter Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawn, Roger C.; Oliker, Leonid; Biswas, Rupak

1996-01-01

This paper describes several new methods to predict and analyze rotorcraft noise. These methods are: 1) a combined computational fluid dynamics and Kirchhoff scheme for far-field noise predictions, 2) parallel computer implementation of the Kirchhoff integrations, 3) audio and visual rendering of the computed acoustic predictions over large far-field regions, and 4) acoustic tracebacks to the Kirchhoff surface to pinpoint the sources of the rotor noise. The paper describes each method and presents sample results for three test cases. The first case consists of in-plane high-speed impulsive noise and the other two cases show idealized parallel and oblique blade-vortex interactions. The computed results show good agreement with available experimental data but convey much more information about the far-field noise propagation. When taken together, these new analysis methods exploit the power of new computer technologies and offer the potential to significantly improve our prediction and understanding of rotorcraft noise.

Supervised machine learning techniques to predict binding affinity. A study for cyclin-dependent kinase 2.

PubMed

de Ávila, Maurício Boff; Xavier, Mariana Morrone; Pintro, Val Oliveira; de Azevedo, Walter Filgueira

2017-12-09

Here we report the development of a machine-learning model to predict binding affinity based on the crystallographic structures of protein-ligand complexes. We used an ensemble of crystallographic structures (resolution better than 1.5 Å resolution) for which half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ) data is available. Polynomial scoring functions were built using as explanatory variables the energy terms present in the MolDock and PLANTS scoring functions. Prediction performance was tested and the supervised machine learning models showed improvement in the prediction power, when compared with PLANTS and MolDock scoring functions. In addition, the machine-learning model was applied to predict binding affinity of CDK2, which showed a better performance when compared with AutoDock4, AutoDock Vina, MolDock, and PLANTS scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Noninvasive prediction of shunt operation outcome in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Aoki, Yasunori; Kazui, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Toshihisa; Ishii, Ryouhei; Wada, Tamiki; Ikeda, Shunichiro; Hata, Masahiro; Canuet, Leonides; Katsimichas, Themistoklis; Musha, Toshimitsu; Matsuzaki, Haruyasu; Imajo, Kaoru; Kanemoto, Hideki; Yoshida, Tetsuhiko; Nomura, Keiko; Yoshiyama, Kenji; Iwase, Masao; Takeda, Masatoshi

2015-01-01

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a syndrome characterized by gait disturbance, cognitive deterioration and urinary incontinence in elderly individuals. These symptoms can be improved by shunt operation in some but not all patients. Therefore, discovering predictive factors for the surgical outcome is of great clinical importance. We used normalized power variance (NPV) of electroencephalography (EEG) waves, a sensitive measure of the instability of cortical electrical activity, and found significantly higher NPV in beta frequency band at the right fronto-temporo-occipital electrodes (Fp2, T4 and O2) in shunt responders compared to non-responders. By utilizing these differences, we were able to correctly identify responders and non-responders to shunt operation with a positive predictive value of 80% and a negative predictive value of 88%. Our findings indicate that NPV can be useful in noninvasively predicting the clinical outcome of shunt operation in patients with iNPH. PMID:25585705

MiRNA Expression Analysis of Pretreatment Biopsies Predicts the Pathological Response of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinomas to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Wen, Jing; Luo, Kongjia; Liu, Hui; Liu, Shiliang; Lin, Guangrong; Hu, Yi; Zhang, Xu; Wang, Geng; Chen, Yuping; Chen, Zhijian; Li, Yi; Lin, Ting; Xie, Xiuying; Liu, Mengzhong; Wang, Huiyun; Yang, Hong; Fu, Jianhua

2016-05-01

To identify miRNA markers useful for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) response prediction. Neo-CRT followed by surgery improves ESCC patients' survival compared with surgery alone. However, CRT outcomes are heterogeneous, and no current methods can predict CRT responses. Differentially expressed miRNAs between ESCC pathological responders and nonresponders after neo-CRT were identified by miRNA profiling and verified by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of 27 ESCCs in the training set. Several class prediction algorithms were used to build the response-classifying models with the qPCR data. Predictive powers of the models were further assessed with a second set of 79 ESCCs. Ten miRNAs with greater than a 1.5-fold change between pathological responders and nonresponders were identified and verified, respectively. A support vector machine (SVM) prediction model, composed of 4 miRNAs (miR-145-5p, miR-152, miR-193b-3p, and miR-376a-3p), were developed. It provided overall accuracies of 100% and 87.3% for discriminating pathological responders and nonresponders in the training and external validation sets, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the subgroup determined by the SVM model was the only independent factor significantly associated with neo-CRT response in the external validation sets. Combined qPCR of the 4 miRNAs provides the possibility of ESCC neo-CRT response prediction, which may facilitate individualized ESCC treatment. Further prospective validation in larger independent cohorts is necessary to fully assess its predictive power.

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble, which is a case-matching scheme. The presentation will provide (1) an overview of each method and the experimental design, (2) performance comparisons based on standard metrics such as bias, MAE and RMSE, (3) a summary of the performance characteristics of each approach and (4) a preview of further experiments to be conducted.

Robust regression and posterior predictive simulation increase power to detect early bursts of trait evolution.

PubMed

Slater, Graham J; Pennell, Matthew W

2014-05-01

A central prediction of much theory on adaptive radiations is that traits should evolve rapidly during the early stages of a clade's history and subsequently slowdown in rate as niches become saturated--a so-called "Early Burst." Although a common pattern in the fossil record, evidence for early bursts of trait evolution in phylogenetic comparative data has been equivocal at best. We show here that this may not necessarily be due to the absence of this pattern in nature. Rather, commonly used methods to infer its presence perform poorly when when the strength of the burst--the rate at which phenotypic evolution declines--is small, and when some morphological convergence is present within the clade. We present two modifications to existing comparative methods that allow greater power to detect early bursts in simulated datasets. First, we develop posterior predictive simulation approaches and show that they outperform maximum likelihood approaches at identifying early bursts at moderate strength. Second, we use a robust regression procedure that allows for the identification and down-weighting of convergent taxa, leading to moderate increases in method performance. We demonstrate the utility and power of these approach by investigating the evolution of body size in cetaceans. Model fitting using maximum likelihood is equivocal with regards the mode of cetacean body size evolution. However, posterior predictive simulation combined with a robust node height test return low support for Brownian motion or rate shift models, but not the early burst model. While the jury is still out on whether early bursts are actually common in nature, our approach will hopefully facilitate more robust testing of this hypothesis. We advocate the adoption of similar posterior predictive approaches to improve the fit and to assess the adequacy of macroevolutionary models in general.

Predicting punching acceleration from selected strength and power variables in elite karate athletes: a multiple regression analysis.

PubMed

Loturco, Irineu; Artioli, Guilherme Giannini; Kobal, Ronaldo; Gil, Saulo; Franchini, Emerson

2014-07-01

This study investigated the relationship between punching acceleration and selected strength and power variables in 19 professional karate athletes from the Brazilian National Team (9 men and 10 women; age, 23 ± 3 years; height, 1.71 ± 0.09 m; and body mass [BM], 67.34 ± 13.44 kg). Punching acceleration was assessed under 4 different conditions in a randomized order: (a) fixed distance aiming to attain maximum speed (FS), (b) fixed distance aiming to attain maximum impact (FI), (c) self-selected distance aiming to attain maximum speed, and (d) self-selected distance aiming to attain maximum impact. The selected strength and power variables were as follows: maximal dynamic strength in bench press and squat-machine, squat and countermovement jump height, mean propulsive power in bench throw and jump squat, and mean propulsive velocity in jump squat with 40% of BM. Upper- and lower-body power and maximal dynamic strength variables were positively correlated to punch acceleration in all conditions. Multiple regression analysis also revealed predictive variables: relative mean propulsive power in squat jump (W·kg-1), and maximal dynamic strength 1 repetition maximum in both bench press and squat-machine exercises. An impact-oriented instruction and a self-selected distance to start the movement seem to be crucial to reach the highest acceleration during punching execution. This investigation, while demonstrating strong correlations between punching acceleration and strength-power variables, also provides important information for coaches, especially for designing better training strategies to improve punching speed.

Why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting log-periodic power law structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Leker, Jens

2014-01-01

Recent research has established the existence of log-periodic power law (LPPL) patterns in financial institutions’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting LPPL structures. To this end, the credit risk prediction of two variants of logistic regression, i.e. polynomial logistic regression (PLR) and kernel logistic regression (KLR), are firstly compared to the standard logistic regression (SLR). In doing so, the question whether the performances of rating systems based on balance sheet ratios can be improved by nonlinear transformations of the explanatory variables is resolved. Building on the result that nonlinear balance sheet ratio transformations hardly improve the SLR’s predictive power in our case, we secondly compare the classification performance of a multivariate SLR to the discriminative powers of probabilities of default derived from three different capital market data, namely bonds, CDSs, and stocks. Benefiting from the prompt inclusion of relevant information, the capital market data in general and CDSs in particular increasingly outperform the SLR while approaching the time of the credit event. Due to the higher classification performances, it seems plausible for creditors to align their investment decisions with capital market-based default indicators, i.e., to imitate the aggregate opinion of the market participants. Since imitation is considered to be the source of LPPL structures in financial time series, it is highly plausible to scan CDS spread developments for LPPL patterns. By establishing LPPL patterns in governmental CDS spread trajectories of some European crisis countries, the LPPL’s application to credit risk markets is extended. This novel piece of evidence further strengthens the claim that credit risk markets are adequate breeding grounds for LPPL patterns.

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Evaluation of Advanced Stirling Convertor Net Heat Input Correlation Methods Using a Thermal Standard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.; Schifer, Nicholas A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, numerous tasks have been performed which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs, including testing validation hardware, known as the Thermal Standard, to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This validation hardware provided a comparison for scrutinizing and improving empirical correlations and numerical models of ASC-E2 net heat input. This hardware simulated the characteristics of an ASC-E2 convertor in both an operating and non-operating mode. This paper describes the Thermal Standard testing and the conclusions of the validation effort applied to the empirical correlation methods used by the Radioisotope Power System (RPS) team at NASA Glenn.

Environmental Loss Characterization of an Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC-E2) Insulation Package Using a Mock Heater Head

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two highefficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. While electrical power output can be precisely quantified, thermal power input to the Stirling cycle cannot be directly measured. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, the Mock Heater Head was developed with the same relative thermal paths as a convertor using a conducting rod to represent the Stirling cycle and tested to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. The Mock Heater Head also served as the pathfinder for a higher fidelity version of validation test hardware, known as the Thermal Standard. This paper describes how the Mock Heater Head was tested and utilized to validate a process for the Thermal Standard.

Predictors of self-rated health in patients with chronic nonmalignant pain.

PubMed

Siedlecki, Sandra L

2006-09-01

Self-rated health (SRH) is an important outcome measure that has been found to accurately predict mortality, morbidity, function, and psychologic well-being. Chronic nonmalignant pain presents with a pattern that includes low levels of power and high levels of pain, depression, and disability. Differences in SRH may be related to variations within this pattern. The purpose of this analysis was to identify determinants of SRH and test their ability to predict SRH in patients with chronic nonmalignant pain. SRH was measured by response to a single three-option age-comparative question. The Power as Knowing Participation in Change Tool, McGill Pain Questionnaire Short Form, Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, and Pain Disability Index were used to measure independent variables. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed significant differences (p = .001) between SRH categories on the combined dependent variable. Analysis of variance conducted as a follow-up identified significant differences for power (p < .001) and depression (p = .003), but not for pain or pain-related disability; and discriminant analysis found that power and depression correctly classified patients with 75% accuracy. Findings suggest pain interventions designed to improve mood and provide opportunities for knowing participation may have a greater impact on overall health than those that target only pain and disability.

Control and Optimization of Electric Ship Propulsion Systems with Hybrid Energy Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jun

Electric ships experience large propulsion-load fluctuations on their drive shaft due to encountered waves and the rotational motion of the propeller, affecting the reliability of the shipboard power network and causing wear and tear. This dissertation explores new solutions to address these fluctuations by integrating a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) and developing energy management strategies (EMS). Advanced electric propulsion drive concepts are developed to improve energy efficiency, performance and system reliability by integrating HESS, developing advanced control solutions and system integration strategies, and creating tools (including models and testbed) for design and optimization of hybrid electric drive systems. A ship dynamics model which captures the underlying physical behavior of the electric ship propulsion system is developed to support control development and system optimization. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed control approaches, a state-of-the-art testbed has been constructed which includes a system controller, Li-Ion battery and ultra-capacitor (UC) modules, a high-speed flywheel, electric motors with their power electronic drives, DC/DC converters, and rectifiers. The feasibility and effectiveness of HESS are investigated and analyzed. Two different HESS configurations, namely battery/UC (B/UC) and battery/flywheel (B/FW), are studied and analyzed to provide insights into the advantages and limitations of each configuration. Battery usage, loss analysis, and sensitivity to battery aging are also analyzed for each configuration. In order to enable real-time application and achieve desired performance, a model predictive control (MPC) approach is developed, where a state of charge (SOC) reference of flywheel for B/FW or UC for B/UC is used to address the limitations imposed by short predictive horizons, because the benefits of flywheel and UC working around high-efficiency range are ignored by short predictive horizons. Given the multi-frequency characteristics of load fluctuations, a filter-based control strategy is developed to illustrate the importance of the coordination within the HESS. Without proper control strategies, the HESS solution could be worse than a single energy storage system solution. The proposed HESS, when introduced into an existing shipboard electrical propulsion system, will interact with the power generation systems. A model-based analysis is performed to evaluate the interactions of the multiple power sources when a hybrid energy storage system is introduced. The study has revealed undesirable interactions when the controls are not coordinated properly, and leads to the conclusion that a proper EMS is needed. Knowledge of the propulsion-load torque is essential for the proposed system-level EMS, but this load torque is immeasurable in most marine applications. To address this issue, a model-based approach is developed so that load torque estimation and prediction can be incorporated into the MPC. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an input observer with linear prediction is developed as an alternative approach to obtain the load estimation and prediction. Comparative studies are performed to illustrate the importance of load torque estimation and prediction, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of improved efficiency, enhanced reliability, and reduced wear and tear. Finally, the real-time MPC algorithm has been implemented on a physical testbed. Three different efforts have been made to enable real-time implementation: a specially tailored problem formulation, an efficient optimization algorithm and a multi-core hardware implementation. Compared to the filter-based strategy, the proposed real-time MPC achieves superior performance, in terms of the enhanced system reliability, improved HESS efficiency, and extended battery life.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collectionmore » of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.« less

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham; ...

2016-06-14

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Crystal Structure Predictions Using Adaptive Genetic Algorithm and Motif Search methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, K. M.; Wang, C. Z.; Zhao, X.; Wu, S.; Lyu, X.; Zhu, Z.; Nguyen, M. C.; Umemoto, K.; Wentzcovitch, R. M. M.

2017-12-01

Material informatics is a new initiative which has attracted a lot of attention in recent scientific research. The basic strategy is to construct comprehensive data sets and use machine learning to solve a wide variety of problems in material design and discovery. In pursuit of this goal, a key element is the quality and completeness of the databases used. Recent advance in the development of crystal structure prediction algorithms has made it a complementary and more efficient approach to explore the structure/phase space in materials using computers. In this talk, we discuss the importance of the structural motifs and motif-networks in crystal structure predictions. Correspondingly, powerful methods are developed to improve the sampling of the low-energy structure landscape.

First Conclusions of the WPEC/Subgroup-22 Nuclear Data for Improved LEU-LWR Reactivity Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courcelle, Arnaud

2005-05-01

This paper is a summary of a collective work in the framework of the Working Party in International Nuclear Data Evaluation and Co-operation (WPEC) to investigate the reasons for systematic reactivity underprediction of thermal LEU-LWR (Low-Enriched Uranium, Light-Water Reactor). This keff underprediction (≈ -500 pcm) is observed with the most recent nuclear data libraries (ENDF/B-VI.8, JENDL3.3 and JEFF3.0) This report reviews the evaluation work performed at several laboratories [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Commissariat a l'énergie atomique de Bruyeres-Le-Chatel (CEA-BRC), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)] as well as the integral tests (mainly at LANL, Knoll Atomic Power Laboratory (KAPL), Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory (BAPL), Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG-Petten, CEA and IAEA) of the successive versions of the new evaluated files. The present status of the work can be summarized as follows: • Improved evaluations of 238U inelastic data proposed by LANL and CEA-BRC were tested against integral benchmarks and partially improve the reactivity prediction. • The thermal capture cross-section of 238U has been revised, and a new evaluation of 238U resonance parameters, up to 20 keV, is in progress at ORNL. Integral tests have ensured that the modifications of 238U capture cross-section in the thermal and resolved range were still compatible with 238U integral measurements (238U capture rate ratios measured in critical facilities and 239Pu build-up prediction in a depleted pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly). It is demonstrated that the combination of the new inelastic data (LANL or BRC) with the preliminary ORNL resonance parameter set gives a good correction of the reactivity under-estimation. The provisional conclusions of this collective work are expected to contribute toward the improvement of the future versions of nuclear data libraries.

Microbial oceanography in a sea of opportunity.

PubMed

Bowler, Chris; Karl, David M; Colwell, Rita R

2009-05-14

Plankton use solar energy to drive the nutrient cycles that make the planet habitable for larger organisms. We can now explore the diversity and functions of plankton using genomics, revealing the gene repertoires associated with survival in the oceans. Such studies will help us to appreciate the sensitivity of ocean systems and of the ocean's response to climate change, improving the predictive power of climate models.

Reliable and fast quantitative analysis of active ingredient in pharmaceutical suspension using Raman spectroscopy.

PubMed

Park, Seok Chan; Kim, Minjung; Noh, Jaegeun; Chung, Hoeil; Woo, Youngah; Lee, Jonghwa; Kemper, Mark S

2007-06-12

The concentration of acetaminophen in a turbid pharmaceutical suspension has been measured successfully using Raman spectroscopy. The spectrometer was equipped with a large spot probe which enabled the coverage of a representative area during sampling. This wide area illumination (WAI) scheme (coverage area 28.3 mm2) for Raman data collection proved to be more reliable for the compositional determination of these pharmaceutical suspensions, especially when the samples were turbid. The reproducibility of measurement using the WAI scheme was compared to that of using a conventional small-spot scheme which employed a much smaller illumination area (about 100 microm spot size). A layer of isobutyric anhydride was placed in front of the sample vials to correct the variation in the Raman intensity due to the fluctuation of laser power. Corrections were accomplished using the isolated carbonyl band of isobutyric anhydride. The acetaminophen concentrations of prediction samples were accurately estimated using a partial least squares (PLS) calibration model. The prediction accuracy was maintained even with changes in laser power. It was noted that the prediction performance was somewhat degraded for turbid suspensions with high acetaminophen contents. When comparing the results of reproducibility obtained with the WAI scheme and those obtained using the conventional scheme, it was concluded that the quantitative determination of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in turbid suspensions is much improved when employing a larger laser coverage area. This is presumably due to the improvement in representative sampling.

Improving accuracy and power with transfer learning using a meta-analytic database.

PubMed

Schwartz, Yannick; Varoquaux, Gaël; Pallier, Christophe; Pinel, Philippe; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Thirion, Bertrand

2012-01-01

Typical cohorts in brain imaging studies are not large enough for systematic testing of all the information contained in the images. To build testable working hypotheses, investigators thus rely on analysis of previous work, sometimes formalized in a so-called meta-analysis. In brain imaging, this approach underlies the specification of regions of interest (ROIs) that are usually selected on the basis of the coordinates of previously detected effects. In this paper, we propose to use a database of images, rather than coordinates, and frame the problem as transfer learning: learning a discriminant model on a reference task to apply it to a different but related new task. To facilitate statistical analysis of small cohorts, we use a sparse discriminant model that selects predictive voxels on the reference task and thus provides a principled procedure to define ROIs. The benefits of our approach are twofold. First it uses the reference database for prediction, i.e., to provide potential biomarkers in a clinical setting. Second it increases statistical power on the new task. We demonstrate on a set of 18 pairs of functional MRI experimental conditions that our approach gives good prediction. In addition, on a specific transfer situation involving different scanners at different locations, we show that voxel selection based on transfer learning leads to higher detection power on small cohorts.

A citation-based assessment of the performance of U.S. boiling water reactors following extended power up-rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidrich, Brenden J.

Nuclear power plants produce 20 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. Nuclear generated electricity is increasingly valuable to a utility because it can be produced at a low marginal cost and it does not release any carbon dioxide. It can also be a hedge against uncertain fossil fuel prices. The construction of new nuclear power plants in the U.S. is cautiously moving forward, restrained by high capital costs. Since 1998, nuclear utilities have been increasing the power output of their reactors by implementing extended power up-rates. Power increases of up to 20 percent are allowed under this process. The equivalent of nine large power plants has been added via extended power up-rates. These up-rates require the replacement of large capital equipment and are often performed in concert with other plant life extension activities such as license renewals. This dissertation examines the effect of these extended power up-rates on the safety performance of U.S. boiling water reactors. Licensing event reports are submitted by the utilities to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal nuclear regulator, for a wide range of abnormal events. Two methods are used to examine the effect of extended power up-rates on the frequency of abnormal events at the reactors. The Crow/AMSAA model, a univariate technique is used to determine if the implementation of an extended power up-rate affects the rate of abnormal events. The method has a long history in the aerospace industry and in the military. At a 95-percent confidence level, the rate of events requiring the submission of a licensing event report decreases following the implementation of an extended power up-rate. It is hypothesized that the improvement in performance is tied to the equipment replacement and refurbishment that is performed as part of the up-rate process. The reactor performance is also analyzed using the proportional hazards model. This technique allows for the estimation of the effects of multiple independent variables on the event rate. Both the Cox and Weibull formulations were tested. The Cox formulation is more commonly used in survival analysis because of its flexibility. The best Cox model included fixed effects at the multi-reactor site level. The Weibull parametric formulation has the same base hazard rate as the Crow/AMSAA model. This theoretical connection was confirmed through a series of tests that demonstrated both models predicted the same base hazard rates. The Weibull formulation produced a model with most of the same statistically significant variables as the Cox model. The beneficial effect of extended power up-rates was predicted in the proportional hazards models as well as the Crow/AMSAA model. The Weibull model also indicated an effect that can be traced back to a plant’s construction. Performance was also found to improve in plants that had been divested from their original owners. This research developed a consistent evaluation toolkit for nuclear power plant performance using either a univariate method that allows for simple graphical evaluation at its heart or a more complex multivariate method that includes the effects of several independent variables with data that are available from public sources. Utilities or regulators with access to proprietary data may be able to expand upon this research with additional data that is not readily available to an academic researcher. Even without access to special data, the methods developed are valuable tools in evaluating and predicting nuclear power plant reliability performance.

Quantitative property-property relationship (QPPR) approach in predicting flotation efficiency of chelating agents as mineral collectors.

PubMed

Natarajan, R; Nirdosh, I; Venuvanalingam, P; Ramalingam, M

2002-07-01

The QPPR approach has been used to model cupferrons as mineral collectors. Separation efficiencies (Es) of these chelating agents have been correlated with property parameters namely, log P, log Koc, substituent-constant sigma, Mullikan and ESP derived charges using multiple regression analysis. Es of substituted-cupferrons in the flotation of a uranium ore could be predicted within experimental error either by log P or log Koc and an electronic parameter. However, when a halo, methoxy or phenyl substituent was in para to the chelating group, experimental Es was greater than the predicted values. Inclusion of a Boolean type indicative parameter improved significantly the predictability power. This approach has been extended to 2-aminothiophenols that were used to float a zinc ore and the correlations were found to be reasonably good.

Integrated CFD modeling of gas turbine combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuller, E. J.; Smith, C. E.

1993-01-01

3D, curvilinear, multi-domain CFD analysis is becoming a valuable tool in gas turbine combustor design. Used as a supplement to experimental testing. CFD analysis can provide improved understanding of combustor aerodynamics and used to qualitatively assess new combustor designs. This paper discusses recent advancements in CFD combustor methodology, including the timely integration of the design (i.e. CAD) and analysis (i.e. CFD) processes. Allied Signal's F124 combustor was analyzed at maximum power conditions. The assumption of turbulence levels at the nozzle/swirler inlet was shown to be very important in the prediction of combustor exit temperatures. Predicted exit temperatures were compared to experimental rake data, and good overall agreement was seen. Exit radial temperature profiles were well predicted, while the predicted pattern factor was 25 percent higher than the harmonic-averaged experimental pattern factor.

A new solar power output prediction based on hybrid forecast engine and decomposition model.

PubMed

Zhang, Weijiang; Dang, Hongshe; Simoes, Rolando

2018-06-12

Regarding to the growing trend of photovoltaic (PV) energy as a clean energy source in electrical networks and its uncertain nature, PV energy prediction has been proposed by researchers in recent decades. This problem is directly effects on operation in power network while, due to high volatility of this signal, an accurate prediction model is demanded. A new prediction model based on Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) and integration of improved empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) with feature selection and forecast engine is presented in this paper. The proposed approach is divided into three main sections. In the first section, the signal is decomposed by the proposed IEMD as an accurate decomposition tool. To increase the accuracy of the proposed method, a new interpolation method has been used instead of cubic spline curve (CSC) fitting in EMD. Then the obtained output is entered into the new feature selection procedure to choose the best candidate inputs. Finally, the signal is predicted by a hybrid forecast engine composed of support vector regression (SVR) based on an intelligent algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified over a number of real-world engineering test cases in comparison with other well-known models. The obtained results prove the validity of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Requirements for Predictive Density Functional Theory Methods for Heavy Materials Equation of State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, Ann E.; Wills, John M.

2012-02-01

The difficulties in experimentally determining the Equation of State of actinide and lanthanide materials has driven the development of many computational approaches with varying degree of empiricism and predictive power. While Density Functional Theory (DFT) based on the Schr"odinger Equation (possibly with relativistic corrections including the scalar relativistic approach) combined with local and semi-local functionals has proven to be a successful and predictive approach for many materials, it is not giving enough accuracy, or even is a complete failure, for the actinides. To remedy this failure both an improved fundamental description based on the Dirac Equation (DE) and improved functionals are needed. Based on results obtained using the appropriate fundamental approach of DFT based on the DE we discuss the performance of available semi-local functionals, the requirements for improved functionals for actinide/lanthanide materials, and the similarities in how functionals behave in transition metal oxides. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE PAGES

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

2018-01-11

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

Optimization of power and energy densities in supercapacitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, David B.

Supercapacitors use nanoporous electrodes to store large amounts of charge on their high surface areas, and use the ions in electrolytes to carry charge into the pores. Their high power density makes them a potentially useful complement to batteries. However, ion transport through long, narrow channels still limits power and efficiency in these devices. Proper design can mitigate this. Current collector geometry must also be considered once this is done. Here, De Levie's model for porous electrodes is applied to quantitatively predict device performance and to propose optimal device designs for given specifications. Effects unique to nanoscale pores are considered, including that pores may not have enough salt to fully charge. Supercapacitors are of value for electric vehicles, portable electronics, and power conditioning in electrical grids with distributed renewable sources, and that value will increase as new device fabrication methods are developed and proper design accommodates those improvements. Example design outlines for vehicle applications are proposed and compared.

Design and evaluation of fluidized bed heat recovery for diesel engine systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamm, J. R.; Newby, R. A.; Vidt, E. J.; Lippert, T. E.

1985-01-01

The potential of utilizing fluidized bed heat exchangers in place of conventional counter-flow heat exchangers for heat recovery from adiabatic diesel engine exhaust gas streams was studied. Fluidized bed heat recovery systems were evaluated in three different heavy duty transport applications: (1) heavy duty diesel truck; (2) diesel locomotives; and (3) diesel marine pushboat. The three applications are characterized by differences in overall power output and annual utilization. For each application, the exhaust gas source is a turbocharged-adiabatic diesel core. Representative subposed exhaust gas heat utilization power cycles were selected for conceptual design efforts including design layouts and performance estimates for the fluidized bed heat recovery heat exchangers. The selected power cycles were: organic rankine with RC-1 working fluid, turbocompound power turbine with steam injection, and stirling engine. Fuel economy improvement predictions are used in conjunction with capital cost estimates and fuel price data to determine payback times for the various cases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hyeokjin; Chen, Hua; Maksimovic, Dragan

An experimental 30 kW boost composite converter is described in this paper. The composite converter architecture, which consists of a buck module, a boost module, and a dual active bridge module that operates as a DC transformer (DCX), leads to substantial reductions in losses at partial power points, and to significant improvements in weighted efficiency in applications that require wide variations in power and conversion ratio. A comprehensive loss model is developed, accounting for semiconductor conduction and switching losses, capacitor losses, as well as dc and ac losses in magnetic components. Based on the developed loss model, the module andmore » system designs are optimized to maximize efficiency at a 50% power point. Experimental results for the 30 kW prototype demonstrate 98.5%peak efficiency, very high efficiency over wide ranges of power and voltage conversion ratios, as well as excellent agreements between model predictions and measured efficiency curves.« less

Predicting nutrient excretion of aquatic animals with metabolic ecology and ecological stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

PubMed

Vanni, Michael J; McIntyre, Peter B

2016-12-01

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES) are both prominent frameworks for understanding energy and nutrient budgets of organisms. We tested their separate and joint power to predict nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion rates of ectothermic aquatic invertebrate and vertebrate animals (10,534 observations worldwide). MTE variables (body size, temperature) performed better than ES variables (trophic guild, vertebrate classification, body N:P) in predicting excretion rates, but the best models included variables from both frameworks. Size scaling coefficients were significantly lower than predicted by MTE (<0.75), were lower for P than N, and varied greatly among species. Contrary to expectations under ES, vertebrates excreted both N and P at higher rates than invertebrates despite having more nutrient-rich bodies, and primary consumers excreted as much nutrients as carnivores despite having nutrient-poor diets. Accounting for body N:P hardly improved upon predictions from treating vertebrate classification categorically. We conclude that basic data on body size, water temperature, trophic guild, and vertebrate classification are sufficient to make general estimates of nutrient excretion rates for any animal taxon or aquatic ecosystem. Nonetheless, dramatic interspecific variation in size-scaling coefficients and counter-intuitive patterns with respect to diet and body composition underscore the need for field data on consumption and egestion rates. Together, MTE and ES provide a powerful conceptual basis for interpreting and predicting nutrient recycling rates of aquatic animals worldwide. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The extension of total gain (TG) statistic in survival models: properties and applications.

PubMed

Choodari-Oskooei, Babak; Royston, Patrick; Parmar, Mahesh K B

2015-07-01

The results of multivariable regression models are usually summarized in the form of parameter estimates for the covariates, goodness-of-fit statistics, and the relevant p-values. These statistics do not inform us about whether covariate information will lead to any substantial improvement in prediction. Predictive ability measures can be used for this purpose since they provide important information about the practical significance of prognostic factors. R (2)-type indices are the most familiar forms of such measures in survival models, but they all have limitations and none is widely used. In this paper, we extend the total gain (TG) measure, proposed for a logistic regression model, to survival models and explore its properties using simulations and real data. TG is based on the binary regression quantile plot, otherwise known as the predictiveness curve. Standardised TG ranges from 0 (no explanatory power) to 1 ('perfect' explanatory power). The results of our simulations show that unlike many of the other R (2)-type predictive ability measures, TG is independent of random censoring. It increases as the effect of a covariate increases and can be applied to different types of survival models, including models with time-dependent covariate effects. We also apply TG to quantify the predictive ability of multivariable prognostic models developed in several disease areas. Overall, TG performs well in our simulation studies and can be recommended as a measure to quantify the predictive ability in survival models.

Changing the approach to treatment choice in epilepsy using big data.

PubMed

Devinsky, Orrin; Dilley, Cynthia; Ozery-Flato, Michal; Aharonov, Ranit; Goldschmidt, Ya'ara; Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Clark, Chris; Fritz, Patty

2016-03-01

A UCB-IBM collaboration explored the application of machine learning to large claims databases to construct an algorithm for antiepileptic drug (AED) choice for individual patients. Claims data were collected between January 2006 and September 2011 for patients with epilepsy > 16 years of age. A subset of patient claims with a valid index date of AED treatment change (new, add, or switch) were used to train the AED prediction model by retrospectively evaluating an index date treatment for subsequent treatment change. Based on the trained model, a model-predicted AED regimen with the lowest likelihood of treatment change was assigned to each patient in the group of test claims, and outcomes were evaluated to test model validity. The model had 72% area under receiver operator characteristic curve, indicating good predictive power. Patients who were given the model-predicted AED regimen had significantly longer survival rates (time until a treatment change event) and lower expected health resource utilization on average than those who received another treatment. The actual prescribed AED regimen at the index date matched the model-predicted AED regimen in only 13% of cases; there were large discrepancies in the frequency of use of certain AEDs/combinations between model-predicted AED regimens and those actually prescribed. Chances of treatment success were improved if patients received the model-predicted treatment. Using the model's prediction system may enable personalized, evidence-based epilepsy care, accelerating the match between patients and their ideal therapy, thereby delivering significantly better health outcomes for patients and providing health-care savings by applying resources more efficiently. Our goal will be to strengthen the predictive power of the model by integrating diverse data sets and potentially moving to prospective data collection. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

2015-05-01

The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Product development: using a 3D computer model to optimize the stability of the Rocket powered wheelchair.

PubMed

Pinkney, S; Fernie, G

2001-01-01

A three-dimensional (3D) lumped-parameter model of a powered wheelchair was created to aid the development of the Rocket prototype wheelchair and to help explore the effect of innovative design features on its stability. The model was developed using simulation software, specifically Working Model 3D. The accuracy of the model was determined by comparing both its static stability angles and dynamic behavior as it passed down a 4.8-cm (1.9") road curb at a heading of 45 degrees with the performance of the actual wheelchair. The model's predictions of the static stability angles in the forward, rearward, and lateral directions were within 9.3, 7.1, and 3.8% of the measured values, respectively. The average absolute error in the predicted position of the wheelchair as it moved down the curb was 2.2 cm/m (0.9" per 3'3") traveled. The accuracy was limited by the inability to model soft bodies, the inherent difficulties in modeling a statically indeterminate system, and the computing time. Nevertheless, it was found to be useful in investigating the effect of eight design alterations on the lateral stability of the wheelchair. Stability was quantified by determining the static lateral stability angles and the maximum height of a road curb over which the wheelchair could successfully drive on a diagonal heading. The model predicted that the stability was more dependent on the configuration of the suspension system than on the dimensions and weight distribution of the wheelchair. Furthermore, for the situations and design alterations studied, predicted improvements in static stability were not correlated with improvements in dynamic stability.

Predicting tDCS treatment outcomes of patients with major depressive disorder using automated EEG classification.

PubMed

Al-Kaysi, Alaa M; Al-Ani, Ahmed; Loo, Colleen K; Powell, Tamara Y; Martin, Donel M; Breakspear, Michael; Boonstra, Tjeerd W

2017-01-15

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a promising treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD). Standard tDCS treatment involves numerous sessions running over a few weeks. However, not all participants respond to this type of treatment. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of identifying MDD patients that respond to tDCS treatment based on resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) recorded prior to treatment commencing. We used machine learning to predict improvement in mood and cognition during tDCS treatment from baseline EEG power spectra. Ten participants with a current diagnosis of MDD were included. Power spectral density was assessed in five frequency bands: delta (0.5-4Hz), theta (4-8Hz), alpha (8-12Hz), beta (13-30Hz) and gamma (30-100Hz). Improvements in mood and cognition were assessed using the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale and Symbol Digit Modalities Test, respectively. We trained the classifiers using three algorithms (support vector machine, extreme learning machine and linear discriminant analysis) and a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Mood labels were accurately predicted in 8 out of 10 participants using EEG channels FC4-AF8 (accuracy=76%, p=0.034). Cognition labels were accurately predicted in 10 out of 10 participants using channels pair CPz-CP2 (accuracy=92%, p=0.004). Due to the limited number of participants (n=10), the presented results mainly aim to serve as a proof of concept. These finding demonstrate the feasibility of using machine learning to identify patients that will respond to tDCS treatment. These promising results warrant a larger study to determine the clinical utility of this approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential of electric bicycles to improve the health of people with Type 2 diabetes: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Cooper, A R; Tibbitts, B; England, C; Procter, D; Searle, A; Sebire, S J; Ranger, E; Page, A S

2018-05-08

To explore in a feasibility study whether 'e-cycling' was acceptable to, and could potentially improve the health of, people with Type 2 diabetes. Twenty people with Type 2 diabetes were recruited and provided with an electric bicycle for 20 weeks. Participants completed a submaximal fitness test at baseline and follow-up to measure predicted maximal aerobic power, and semi-structured interviews were conducted to assess the acceptability of using an electric bicycle. Participants wore a heart rate monitor and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver in the first week of electric bicycle use to measure their heart-rate during e-cycling. Eighteen participants completed the study, cycling a median (interquartile range) of 21.4 (5.5-37.7) km per week Predicted maximal aerobic power increased by 10.9%. Heart rate during electric bicycle journeys was 74.7% of maximum, compared with 64.3% of maximum when walking. Participants used the electric bicycles for commuting, shopping and recreation, and expressed how the electric bicycle helped them to overcome barriers to active travel/cycling, such as hills. Fourteen participants purchased an electric bicycle on study completion. There was evidence that e-cycling was acceptable, could increase fitness and elicited a heart rate that may lead to improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors in this population. Electric bicycles have potential as a health-improving intervention in people with Type 2 diabetes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy metabolite profiles predict survival in paediatric brain tumours.

PubMed

Wilson, Martin; Cummins, Carole L; Macpherson, Lesley; Sun, Yu; Natarajan, Kal; Grundy, Richard G; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Kauppinen, Risto A; Peet, Andrew C

2013-01-01

Brain tumours cause the highest mortality and morbidity rate of all childhood tumour groups and new methods are required to improve clinical management. (1)H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) allows non-invasive concentration measurements of small molecules present in tumour tissue, providing clinically useful imaging biomarkers. The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether MRS detectable molecules can predict the survival of paediatric brain tumour patients. Short echo time (30ms) single voxel (1)H MRS was performed on children attending Birmingham Children's Hospital with a suspected brain tumour and 115 patients were included in the survival analysis. Patients were followed-up for a median period of 35 months and Cox-Regression was used to establish the prognostic value of individual MRS detectable molecules. A multivariate model of survival was also investigated to improve prognostic power. Lipids and scyllo-inositol predicted poor survival whilst glutamine and N-acetyl aspartate predicted improved survival (p<0.05). A multivariate model of survival based on three MRS biomarkers predicted survival with a similar accuracy to histologic grading (p<5e-5). A negative correlation between lipids and glutamine was found, suggesting a functional link between these molecules. MRS detectable biomolecules have been identified that predict survival of paediatric brain tumour patients across a range of tumour types. The evaluation of these biomarkers in large prospective studies of specific tumour types should be undertaken. The correlation between lipids and glutamine provides new insight into paediatric brain tumour metabolism that may present novel targets for therapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A maximum power point prediction method for group control of photovoltaic water pumping systems based on parameter identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Su, J. H.; Guo, L.; Chen, J.

2017-06-01

This paper puts forward a maximum power estimation method based on the photovoltaic array (PVA) model to solve the optimization problems about group control of the PV water pumping systems (PVWPS) at the maximum power point (MPP). This method uses the improved genetic algorithm (GA) for model parameters estimation and identification in view of multi P-V characteristic curves of a PVA model, and then corrects the identification results through least square method. On this basis, the irradiation level and operating temperature under any condition are able to estimate so an accurate PVA model is established and the MPP none-disturbance estimation is achieved. The simulation adopts the proposed GA to determine parameters, and the results verify the accuracy and practicability of the methods.

Radiative Performance of Rare Earth Garnet Thin Film Selective Emitters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowe, Roland A.; Chubb, Donald L.; Good, Brian S.

1994-01-01

In this paper we present the first emitter efficiency results for the thin film 40 percent Er-1.5 percent Ho YAG (Yttrium Aluminum Garnet, Y3Al5O12) and 25 percent Ho YAG selective emitter at 1500 K with a platinum substrate. Spectral emittance and emissive power measurements were made (1.2 less than lambda less than 3.2 microns). Emitter efficiency and power density are significantly improved with the addition of multiple rare earth dopants. Predicted efficiency results are presented for an optimized (equal power density in the Er, (4)I(sub 15/2)-(4)I(sub 13/2) at 1.5 microns, and Ho, (5)I(sub 7)-(5)I(sub 8) at 2.0 micron emission bands) Er-Ho YAG thin film selective emitter.

Development and design of photovoltaic power prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhijia; Zhou, Hai; Cheng, Xu

2018-02-01

In order to reduce the impact of power grid safety caused by volatility and randomness of the energy produced in photovoltaic power plants, this paper puts forward a construction scheme on photovoltaic power generation prediction system, introducing the technical requirements, system configuration and function of each module, and discussing the main technical features of the platform software development. The scheme has been applied in many PV power plants in the northwest of China. It shows that the system can produce reasonable prediction results, providing a right guidance for dispatching and efficient running for PV power plant.

In-class didactic versus self-directed teaching of the probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) criteria for Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Rzouq, Fadi; Vennalaganti, Prashanth; Pakseresht, Kavous; Kanakadandi, Vijay; Parasa, Sravanthi; Mathur, Sharad C; Alsop, Benjamin R; Hornung, Benjamin; Gupta, Neil; Sharma, Prateek

2016-02-01

Optimal teaching methods for disease recognition using probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) have not been developed. Our aim was to compare in-class didactic teaching vs. self-directed teaching of Barrett's neoplasia diagnosis using pCLE. This randomized controlled trial was conducted at a tertiary academic center. Study participants with no prior pCLE experience were randomized to in-class didactic (group 1) or self-directed teaching groups (group 2). For group 1, an expert conducted a classroom teaching session using standardized educational material. Participants in group 2 were provided with the same material on an audio PowerPoint. After initial training, all participants graded an initial set of 20 pCLE videos and reviewed correct responses with the expert (group 1) or on audio PowerPoint (group 2). Finally, all participants completed interpretations of a further 40 videos. Eighteen trainees (8 medical students, 10 gastroenterology trainees) participated in the study. Overall diagnostic accuracy for neoplasia prediction by pCLE was 77 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 74.0 % - 79.2 %); of predictions made with high confidence (53 %), the accuracy was 85 % (95 %CI 81.8 % - 87.8 %). The overall accuracy and interobserver agreement was significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 for all predictions (80.4 % vs. 73 %; P = 0.005) and for high confidence predictions (90 % vs. 80 %; P < 0.001). Following feedback (after the initial 20 videos), the overall accuracy improved from 73 % to 79 % (P = 0.04), mainly driven by a significant improvement in group 1 (74 % to 84 %; P < 0.01). Accuracy of prediction significantly improved with time in endoscopy training (72 % students, 77 % FY1, 82 % FY2, and 85 % FY3; P = 0.003). For novice trainees, in-class didactic teaching enables significantly better recognition of the pCLE features of Barrett's esophagus than self-directed teaching. The in-class didactic group had a shorter learning curve and were able to achieve 90 % accuracy for their high confidence predictions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A Novel Approach of Battery Energy Storage for Improving Value of Wind Power in Deregulated Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Y. Minh; Yoon, Yong Tae

2013-06-01

Wind power producers face many regulation costs in deregulated environment, which remarkably lowers the value of wind power in comparison with the conventional sources. One of these costs is associated with the real-time variation of power output and being paid in frequency control market according to the variation band. In this regard, this paper presents a new approach to the scheduling and operation of battery energy storage installed in wind generation system. This approach depends on the statistic data of wind generation and the prediction of frequency control market prices to determine the optimal charging and discharging of batteries in real-time, which ultimately gives the minimum cost of frequency regulation for wind power producers. The optimization problem is formulated as the trade-off between the decrease in regulation payment and the increase in the cost of using battery energy storage. The approach is illustrated in the case study and the results of simulation show its effectiveness.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between false negative and false positive base pair predictions. Finally, AveRNA can make use of arbitrary sets of secondary structure prediction procedures and can therefore be used to leverage improvements in prediction accuracy offered by algorithms and energy models developed in the future. Our data, MATLAB software and a web-based version of AveRNA are publicly available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Software/AveRNA.

Transmembrane Topology and Signal Peptide Prediction Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Käll, Lukas; Riffle, Michael E.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2008-01-01

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to the tasks of transmembrane protein topology prediction and signal peptide prediction. In this paper we expand upon this work by making use of the more powerful class of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). Our model, Philius, is inspired by a previously published HMM, Phobius, and combines a signal peptide submodel with a transmembrane submodel. We introduce a two-stage DBN decoder that combines the power of posterior decoding with the grammar constraints of Viterbi-style decoding. Philius also provides protein type, segment, and topology confidence metrics to aid in the interpretation of the predictions. We report a relative improvement of 13% over Phobius in full-topology prediction accuracy on transmembrane proteins, and a sensitivity and specificity of 0.96 in detecting signal peptides. We also show that our confidence metrics correlate well with the observed precision. In addition, we have made predictions on all 6.3 million proteins in the Yeast Resource Center (YRC) database. This large-scale study provides an overall picture of the relative numbers of proteins that include a signal-peptide and/or one or more transmembrane segments as well as a valuable resource for the scientific community. All DBNs are implemented using the Graphical Models Toolkit. Source code for the models described here is available at http://noble.gs.washington.edu/proj/philius. A Philius Web server is available at http://www.yeastrc.org/philius, and the predictions on the YRC database are available at http://www.yeastrc.org/pdr. PMID:18989393

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

Analysis of Physicochemical and Structural Properties Determining HIV-1 Coreceptor Usage

PubMed Central

Bozek, Katarzyna; Lengauer, Thomas; Sierra, Saleta; Kaiser, Rolf; Domingues, Francisco S.

2013-01-01

The relationship of HIV tropism with disease progression and the recent development of CCR5-blocking drugs underscore the importance of monitoring virus coreceptor usage. As an alternative to costly phenotypic assays, computational methods aim at predicting virus tropism based on the sequence and structure of the V3 loop of the virus gp120 protein. Here we present a numerical descriptor of the V3 loop encoding its physicochemical and structural properties. The descriptor allows for structure-based prediction of HIV tropism and identification of properties of the V3 loop that are crucial for coreceptor usage. Use of the proposed descriptor for prediction results in a statistically significant improvement over the prediction based solely on V3 sequence with 3 percentage points improvement in AUC and 7 percentage points in sensitivity at the specificity of the 11/25 rule (95%). We additionally assessed the predictive power of the new method on clinically derived ‘bulk’ sequence data and obtained a statistically significant improvement in AUC of 3 percentage points over sequence-based prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrated the capacity of our method to predict therapy outcome by applying it to 53 samples from patients undergoing Maraviroc therapy. The analysis of structural features of the loop informative of tropism indicates the importance of two loop regions and their physicochemical properties. The regions are located on opposite strands of the loop stem and the respective features are predominantly charge-, hydrophobicity- and structure-related. These regions are in close proximity in the bound conformation of the loop potentially forming a site determinant for the coreceptor binding. The method is available via server under http://structure.bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/. PMID:23555214

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Communal and Agentic Interpersonal and Intergroup Motives Predict Preferences for Status Versus Power.

PubMed

Locke, Kenneth D; Heller, Sonja

2017-01-01

Seven studies involving 1,343 participants showed how circumplex models of social motives can help explain individual differences in preferences for status (having others' admiration) versus power (controlling valuable resources). Studies 1 to 3 and 7 concerned interpersonal motives in workplace contexts, and found that stronger communal motives (to have mutual trust, support, and cooperation) predicted being more attracted to status (but not power) and achieving more workplace status, while stronger agentic motives (to be firm, decisive, and influential) predicted being more attracted to and achieving more workplace power, and experiencing a stronger connection between workplace power and job satisfaction. Studies 4 to 6 found similar effects for intergroup motives: Stronger communal motives predicted wanting one's ingroup (e.g., country) to have status-but not power-relative to other groups. Finally, most people preferred status over power, and this was especially true for women, which was partially explained by women having stronger communal motives.

Recent experience with the CQE{trademark}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, C.D.; Kehoe, D.B.; O`Connor, D.C.

1997-12-31

CQE (the Coal Quality Expert) is a software tool that brings a new level of sophistication to fuel decisions by seamlessly integrating the system-wide effects of fuel purchase decisions on power plant performance, emissions, and power generation costs. The CQE technology, which addresses fuel quality from the coal mine to the busbar and the stack, is an integration and improvement of predecessor software tools including: EPRI`s Coal Quality Information System, EPRI`s Coal Cleaning Cost Model, EPRI`s Coal Quality Impact Model, and EPRI and DOE models to predict slagging and fouling. CQE can be used as a stand-alone workstation or asmore » a network application for utilities, coal producers, and equipment manufacturers to perform detailed analyses of the impacts of coal quality, capital improvements, operational changes, and/or environmental compliance alternatives on power plant emissions, performance and production costs. It can be used as a comprehensive, precise and organized methodology for systematically evaluating all such impacts or it may be used in pieces with some default data to perform more strategic or comparative studies.« less

Assessment of High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) electric motors for rotorcraft propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doernbach, Jay

1990-01-01

The successful development of high temperature superconductors (HTS) could have a major impact on future aeronautical propulsion and aeronautical flight vehicle systems. Applications of high temperature superconductors have been envisioned for several classes of aeronautical systems, including subsonic and supersonic transports, hypersonic aircraft, V/STOL aircraft, rotorcraft and solar powered aircraft. The potential of HTS electric motors and generators for providing primary shaft power for rotorcraft propulsion is examined. Three different sized production helicopters were investigated; namely, the Bell Jet Ranger, the Sikorsky Black Hawk and the Sikorsky Super Stallion. These rotorcraft have nominal horsepower ratings of 500, 3600, and 13400 respectively. Preliminary results indicated that an all-electric HTS drive system produces an improvement in rotorcraft Takeoff Gross Weight (TOGW) for those rotorcraft with power ratings above 2000 horsepower. The predicted TOGW improvements are up to 9 percent for the medium-sized Sikorsky Black Hawk and up to 20 percent for the large-sized Sikorsky Super Stallion. The small-sized Bell Jet Ranger, however, experienced a penalty in TOGW with the all-electric HTS drive system.

The predictive power of local properties of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraiani, Petre

2017-01-01

The literature on analyzing the dynamics of financial networks has focused so far on the predictive power of global measures of networks like entropy or index cohesive force. In this paper, I show that the local network properties have similar predictive power. I focus on key network measures like average path length, average degree or cluster coefficient, and also consider the diameter and the s-metric. Using Granger causality tests, I show that some of these measures have statistically significant prediction power with respect to the dynamics of aggregate stock market. Average path length is most robust relative to the frequency of data used or specification (index or growth rate). Most measures are found to have predictive power only for monthly frequency. Further evidences that support this view are provided through a simple regression model.

Advanced Cloud Forecasting for Solar Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Parker, M. J.

2017-12-01

A power utility must decide days in advance how it will allocate projected loads among its various generating sources. If the latter includes solar plants, the utility must predict how much energy the plants will produce - any shortfall will have to be compensated for by purchasing power as it is needed, when it is more expensive. To avoid this, utilities often err on the side of caution and assume that a relatively small amount of solar energy will be available, and allocate correspondingly more load to coal-fired plants. If solar irradiance can be predicted more accurately, utilities can be more confident that the predicted solar energy will indeed be available when needed, and assign solar plants a larger share of the future load. Solar power production is increasing in the Southeast, but is often hampered by irregular cloud fields, especially during high-pressure periods when rapid afternoon thunderstorm development can occur during what was predicted to be a clear day. We are currently developing an analog forecasting system to predict solar irradiance at the surface at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, with the goal of improving predictions of available solar energy. Analog forecasting is based on the assumption that similar initial conditions will lead to similar outcomes, and involves the use of an algorithm to look through the weather patterns of the past to identify previous conditions (the analogs) similar to those of today. For our application, we select three predictor variables - sea-level pressure, 700mb geopotential, and 700mb humidity. These fields for the current day are compared to those from past days, and a weighted combination of the differences (defined by a cost function) is used to select the five best analog days. The observed solar irradiance values subsequent to the dates of those analogs are then combined to represent the forecast for the next day. We will explain how we apply the analog process, and compare it to existing solar forecasts.

Density Functional Theory Investigations of D-A-D' Structural Molecules as Donor Materials in Organic Solar Cell.

PubMed

Chen, Junxian; Liu, Qingyu; Li, Hao; Zhao, Zhigang; Lu, Zhiyun; Huang, Yan; Xu, Dingguo

2018-01-01

Squaraine core based small molecules in bulk heterojunction organic solar cells have received extensive attentions due to their distinguished photochemical properties in far red and infrared domain. In this paper, combining theoretical simulations and experimental syntheses and characterizations, three major factors (fill factor, short circuit and open-cirvuit voltage) have been carried out together to achieve improvement of power conversion efficiencies of solar cells. As model material systems with D-A-D' framework, two asymmetric squaraines (CNSQ and CCSQ-Tol) as donor materials in bulk heterojunction organic solar cell were synthesized and characterized. Intensive density functional theory computations were applied to identify some direct connections between three factors and corresponding molecular structural properties. It then helps us to predict one new molecule of CCSQ'-Ox that matches all the requirements to improve the power conversion efficiency.

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Balanced KNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Xianlong; Cheng, Xingong; YanShuang; Tang, Yan-mei

2018-03-01

To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a short-term load forecasting model based on balanced KNN algorithm is proposed; According to the load characteristics, the historical data of massive power load are divided into scenes by the K-means algorithm; In view of unbalanced load scenes, the balanced KNN algorithm is proposed to classify the scene accurately; The local weighted linear regression algorithm is used to fitting and predict the load; Adopting the Apache Hadoop programming framework of cloud computing, the proposed algorithm model is parallelized and improved to enhance its ability of dealing with massive and high-dimension data. The analysis of the household electricity consumption data for a residential district is done by 23-nodes cloud computing cluster, and experimental results show that the load forecasting accuracy and execution time by the proposed model are the better than those of traditional forecasting algorithm.

Wind Turbine Wakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelley, Christopher Lee; Maniaci, David Charles; Resor, Brian R.

2015-10-01

The total energy produced by a wind farm depends on the complex interaction of many wind turbines operating in proximity with the turbulent atmosphere. Sometimes, the unsteady forces associated with wind negatively influence power production, causing damage and increasing the cost of producing energy associated with wind power. Wakes and the motion of air generated by rotating blades need to be better understood. Predicting wakes and other wind forces could lead to more effective wind turbine designs and farm layouts, thereby reducing the cost of energy, allowing the United States to increase the installed capacity of wind energy. The Windmore » Energy Technologies Department at Sandia has collaborated with the University of Minnesota to simulate the interaction of multiple wind turbines. By combining the validated, large-eddy simulation code with Sandia’s HPC capability, this consortium has improved its ability to predict unsteady forces and the electrical power generated by an array of wind turbines. The array of wind turbines simulated were specifically those at the Sandia Scaled Wind Farm Testbed (SWiFT) site which aided the design of new wind turbine blades being manufactured as part of the National Rotor Testbed project with the Department of Energy.« less

Analysis of 2D Transport and Performance Characteristics for Lateral Power Devices Based on AlGaN Alloys

DOE PAGES

Coltrin, Michael E.; Baca, Albert G.; Kaplar, Robert J.

2017-10-26

In this paper, predicted lateral power device performance as a function of alloy composition is characterized by a standard lateral device figure-of-merit (LFOM) that depends on mobility, critical electric field, and sheet carrier density. The paper presents calculations of AlGaN electron mobility in lateral devices such as HEMTs across the entire alloy composition range. Alloy scattering and optical polar phonon scattering are the dominant mechanisms limiting carrier mobility. Due to the significant degradation of mobility from alloy scattering, at room temperature Al fractions greater than about 85% are required for improved LFOM relative to GaN using a conservative sheet chargemore » density of 1 × 10 13 cm –2. However, at higher temperatures at which AlGaN power devices are anticipated to operate, this “breakeven” composition decreases to about 65% at 500 K, for example. For high-frequency applications, the Johnson figure-of-merit (JFOM) is the relevant metric to compare potential device performance across materials platforms. At room temperature, the JFOM for AlGaN alloys is predicted to surpass that of GaN for Al fractions greater than about 40%.« less

Analysis of 2D Transport and Performance Characteristics for Lateral Power Devices Based on AlGaN Alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coltrin, Michael E.; Baca, Albert G.; Kaplar, Robert J.

In this paper, predicted lateral power device performance as a function of alloy composition is characterized by a standard lateral device figure-of-merit (LFOM) that depends on mobility, critical electric field, and sheet carrier density. The paper presents calculations of AlGaN electron mobility in lateral devices such as HEMTs across the entire alloy composition range. Alloy scattering and optical polar phonon scattering are the dominant mechanisms limiting carrier mobility. Due to the significant degradation of mobility from alloy scattering, at room temperature Al fractions greater than about 85% are required for improved LFOM relative to GaN using a conservative sheet chargemore » density of 1 × 10 13 cm –2. However, at higher temperatures at which AlGaN power devices are anticipated to operate, this “breakeven” composition decreases to about 65% at 500 K, for example. For high-frequency applications, the Johnson figure-of-merit (JFOM) is the relevant metric to compare potential device performance across materials platforms. At room temperature, the JFOM for AlGaN alloys is predicted to surpass that of GaN for Al fractions greater than about 40%.« less

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

Deep learning methods for protein torsion angle prediction.

PubMed

Li, Haiou; Hou, Jie; Adhikari, Badri; Lyu, Qiang; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-09-18

Deep learning is one of the most powerful machine learning methods that has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many domains. Since deep learning was introduced to the field of bioinformatics in 2012, it has achieved success in a number of areas such as protein residue-residue contact prediction, secondary structure prediction, and fold recognition. In this work, we developed deep learning methods to improve the prediction of torsion (dihedral) angles of proteins. We design four different deep learning architectures to predict protein torsion angles. The architectures including deep neural network (DNN) and deep restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBN), deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and deep recurrent restricted Boltzmann machine (DReRBM) since the protein torsion angle prediction is a sequence related problem. In addition to existing protein features, two new features (predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments) are used as input to each of the four deep learning architectures to predict phi and psi angles of protein backbone. The mean absolute error (MAE) of phi and psi angles predicted by DRNN, DReRBM, DRBM and DNN is about 20-21° and 29-30° on an independent dataset. The MAE of phi angle is comparable to the existing methods, but the MAE of psi angle is 29°, 2° lower than the existing methods. On the latest CASP12 targets, our methods also achieved the performance better than or comparable to a state-of-the art method. Our experiment demonstrates that deep learning is a valuable method for predicting protein torsion angles. The deep recurrent network architecture performs slightly better than deep feed-forward architecture, and the predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments are useful features for improving prediction accuracy.

Ensemble predictive model for more accurate soil organic carbon spectroscopic estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vašát, Radim; Kodešová, Radka; Borůvka, Luboš

2017-07-01

A myriad of signal pre-processing strategies and multivariate calibration techniques has been explored in attempt to improve the spectroscopic prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) over the last few decades. Therefore, to come up with a novel, more powerful, and accurate predictive approach to beat the rank becomes a challenging task. However, there may be a way, so that combine several individual predictions into a single final one (according to ensemble learning theory). As this approach performs best when combining in nature different predictive algorithms that are calibrated with structurally different predictor variables, we tested predictors of two different kinds: 1) reflectance values (or transforms) at each wavelength and 2) absorption feature parameters. Consequently we applied four different calibration techniques, two per each type of predictors: a) partial least squares regression and support vector machines for type 1, and b) multiple linear regression and random forest for type 2. The weights to be assigned to individual predictions within the ensemble model (constructed as a weighted average) were determined by an automated procedure that ensured the best solution among all possible was selected. The approach was tested at soil samples taken from surface horizon of four sites differing in the prevailing soil units. By employing the ensemble predictive model the prediction accuracy of SOC improved at all four sites. The coefficient of determination in cross-validation (R2cv) increased from 0.849, 0.611, 0.811 and 0.644 (the best individual predictions) to 0.864, 0.650, 0.824 and 0.698 for Site 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Generally, the ensemble model affected the final prediction so that the maximal deviations of predicted vs. observed values of the individual predictions were reduced, and thus the correlation cloud became thinner as desired.

The AGT Gene M235T Polymorphism and Response of Power-Related Variables to Aerobic Training.

PubMed

Aleksandra, Zarębska; Zbigniew, Jastrzębski; Waldemar, Moska; Agata, Leońska-Duniec; Mariusz, Kaczmarczyk; Marek, Sawczuk; Agnieszka, Maciejewska-Skrendo; Piotr, Żmijewski; Krzysztof, Ficek; Grzegorz, Trybek; Ewelina, Lulińska-Kuklik; Semenova, Ekaterina A; Ahmetov, Ildus I; Paweł, Cięszczyk

2016-12-01

The C allele of the M235T (rs699) polymorphism of the AGT gene correlates with higher levels of angiotensin II and has been associated with power and strength sport performance. The aim of the study was to investigate whether or not selected power-related variables and their response to a 12-week program of aerobic dance training are modulated by the AGT M235T genotype in healthy participants. Two hundred and one Polish Caucasian women aged 21 ± 1 years met the inclusion criteria and were included in the study. All women completed a 12-week program of low and high impact aerobics. Wingate peak power and total work capacity, 5 m, 10 m, and 30 m running times and jump height and jump power were determined before and after the training programme. All power-related variables improved significantly in response to aerobic dance training. We found a significant association between the M235T polymorphism and jump-based variables (squat jump (SJ) height, p = 0.005; SJ power, p = 0.015; countermovement jump height, p = 0.025; average of 10 countermovement jumps with arm swing (ACMJ) height, p = 0.001; ACMJ power, p = 0.035). Specifically, greater improvements were observed in the C allele carriers in comparison with TT homozygotes. In conclusion, aerobic dance, one of the most commonly practiced adult fitness activities in the world, provides sufficient training stimuli for augmenting the explosive strength necessary to increase vertical jump performance. The AGT gene M235T polymorphism seems to be not only a candidate gene variant for power/strength related phenotypes, but also a genetic marker for predicting response to training.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Analysis of the irradiation data for A302B and A533B correlation monitor materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, J.A.

1996-04-01

The results of Charpy V-notch impact tests for A302B and A533B-1 Correlation Monitor Materials (CMM) listed in the surveillance power reactor data base (PR-EDB) and material test reactor data base (TR-EDB) are analyzed. The shift of the transition temperature at 30 ft-lb (T{sub 30}) is considered as the primary measure of radiation embrittlement in this report. The hyperbolic tangent fitting model and uncertainty of the fitting parameters for Charpy impact tests are presented in this report. For the surveillance CMM data, the transition temperature shifts at 30 ft-lb ({Delta}T{sub 30}) generally follow the predictions provided by Revision 2 of Regulatorymore » Guide 1.99 (R.G. 1.99). Difference in capsule temperatures is a likely explanation for large deviations from R.G. 1.99 predictions. Deviations from the R.G. 1.99 predictions are correlated to similar deviations for the accompanying materials in the same capsules, but large random fluctuations prevent precise quantitative determination. Significant scatter is noted in the surveillance data, some of which may be attributed to variations from one specimen set to another, or inherent in Charpy V-notch testing. The major contributions to the uncertainty of the R.G. 1.99 prediction model, and the overall data scatter are from mechanical test results, chemical analysis, irradiation environments, fluence evaluation, and inhomogeneous material properties. Thus in order to improve the prediction model, control of the above-mentioned error sources needs to be improved. In general the embrittlement behavior of both the A302B and A533B-1 plate materials is similar. There is evidence for a fluence-rate effect in the CMM data irradiated in test reactors; thus its implication on power reactor surveillance programs deserves special attention.« less

Evaluating Upper-Body Strength and Power From a Single Test: The Ballistic Push-up.

PubMed

Wang, Ran; Hoffman, Jay R; Sadres, Eliahu; Bartolomei, Sandro; Muddle, Tyler W D; Fukuda, David H; Stout, Jeffrey R

2017-05-01

Wang, R, Hoffman, JR, Sadres, E, Bartolomei, S, Muddle, TWD, Fukuda, DH, and Stout, JR. Evaluating upper-body strength and power from a single test: the ballistic push-up. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1338-1345, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the ballistic push-up (BPU) exercise and to develop a prediction model for both maximal strength (1 repetition maximum [1RM]) in the bench press exercise and upper-body power. Sixty recreationally active men completed a 1RM bench press and 2 BPU assessments in 3 separate testing sessions. Peak and mean force, peak and mean rate of force development, net impulse, peak velocity, flight time, and peak and mean power were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to examine the reliability of the BPU. Stepwise linear regression was used to develop 1RM bench press and power prediction equations. Intraclass correlation coefficient's ranged from 0.849 to 0.971 for the BPU measurements. Multiple regression analysis provided the following 1RM bench press prediction equation: 1RM = 0.31 × Mean Force - 1.64 × Body Mass + 0.70 (R = 0.837, standard error of the estimate [SEE] = 11 kg); time-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 11.0 × Body Mass + 2012.3 × Flight Time - 338.0 (R = 0.658, SEE = 150 W), Mean Power = 6.7 × Body Mass + 1004.4 × Flight Time - 224.6 (R = 0.664, SEE = 82 W); and velocity-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 8.1 × Body Mass + 818.6 × Peak Velocity - 762.0 (R = 0.797, SEE = 115 W); Mean Power = 5.2 × Body Mass + 435.9 × Peak Velocity - 467.7 (R = 0.838, SEE = 57 W). The BPU is a reliable test for both upper-body strength and power. Results indicate that the mean force generated from the BPU can be used to predict 1RM bench press, whereas peak velocity and flight time measured during the BPU can be used to predict upper-body power. These findings support the potential use of the BPU as a valid method to evaluate upper-body strength and power.

An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayram, Tuncay; Akkoyun, Serkan

2017-09-01

The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs) of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

Performance Prediction and Validation: Data, Frameworks, and Considerations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tinnesand, Heidi

2017-05-19

Improving the predictability and reliability of wind power generation and operations will reduce costs and potentially establish a framework to attract new capital into the distributed wind sector, a key cost reduction requirement highlighted in results from the distributed wind future market assessment conducted with dWind. Quantifying and refining the accuracy of project performance estimates will also directly address several of the key challenges identified by industry stakeholders in 2015 as part of the distributed wind resource assessment workshop and be cross-cutting for several other facets of the distributed wind portfolio. This presentation covers the efforts undertaken in 2016 tomore » address these topics.« less

Optimal PGU operation strategy in CHP systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Kyungtae

Traditional power plants only utilize about 30 percent of the primary energy that they consume, and the rest of the energy is usually wasted in the process of generating or transmitting electricity. On-site and near-site power generation has been considered by business, labor, and environmental groups to improve the efficiency and the reliability of power generation. Combined heat and power (CHP) systems are a promising alternative to traditional power plants because of the high efficiency and low CO2 emission achieved by recovering waste thermal energy produced during power generation. A CHP operational algorithm designed to optimize operational costs must be relatively simple to implement in practice such as to minimize the computational requirements from the hardware to be installed. This dissertation focuses on the following aspects pertaining the design of a practical CHP operational algorithm designed to minimize the operational costs: (a) real-time CHP operational strategy using a hierarchical optimization algorithm; (b) analytic solutions for cost-optimal power generation unit operation in CHP Systems; (c) modeling of reciprocating internal combustion engines for power generation and heat recovery; (d) an easy to implement, effective, and reliable hourly building load prediction algorithm.

Improved High/Low Junction Silicon Solar Cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neugroschel, A.; Pao, S. C.; Lindholm, F. A.; Fossum, J. G.

1986-01-01

Method developed to raise value of open-circuit voltage in silicon solar cells by incorporating high/low junction in cell emitter. Power-conversion efficiency of low-resistivity silicon solar cell considerably less than maximum theoretical value mainly because open-circuit voltage is smaller than simple p/n junction theory predicts. With this method, air-mass-zero opencircuit voltage increased from 600 mV level to approximately 650 mV.

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

2014-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

[Implementation results of emission standards of air pollutants for thermal power plants: a numerical simulation].

PubMed

Wang, Zhan-Shan; Pan, Li-Bo

2014-03-01

The emission inventory of air pollutants from the thermal power plants in the year of 2010 was set up. Based on the inventory, the air quality of the prediction scenarios by implementation of both 2003-version emission standard and the new emission standard were simulated using Models-3/CMAQ. The concentrations of NO2, SO2, and PM2.5, and the deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the year of 2015 and 2020 were predicted to investigate the regional air quality improvement by the new emission standard. The results showed that the new emission standard could effectively improve the air quality in China. Compared with the implementation results of the 2003-version emission standard, by 2015 and 2020, the area with NO2 concentration higher than the emission standard would be reduced by 53.9% and 55.2%, the area with SO2 concentration higher than the emission standard would be reduced by 40.0%, the area with nitrogen deposition higher than 1.0 t x km(-2) would be reduced by 75.4% and 77.9%, and the area with sulfur deposition higher than 1.6 t x km(-2) would be reduced by 37.1% and 34.3%, respectively.

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Supervised filters for EEG signal in naturally occurring epilepsy forecasting.

PubMed

Muñoz-Almaraz, Francisco Javier; Zamora-Martínez, Francisco; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma; Pardo, Juan

2017-01-01

Nearly 1% of the global population has Epilepsy. Forecasting epileptic seizures with an acceptable confidence level, could improve the disease treatment and thus the lifestyle of the people who suffer it. To do that the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is usually studied through spectral power band filtering, but this paper proposes an alternative novel method of preprocessing the EEG signal based on supervised filters. Such filters have been employed in a machine learning algorithm, such as the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), to improve the prediction of seizures. The proposed solution extends with this novel approach an algorithm that was submitted to win the third prize of an international Data Science challenge promoted by Kaggle contest platform and the American Epilepsy Society, the Epilepsy Foundation, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Mayo Clinic. A formal description of these preprocessing methods is presented and a detailed analysis in terms of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and Area Under ROC curve is performed. The obtained results show statistical significant improvements when compared with the spectral power band filtering (PBF) typical baseline. A trend between performance and the dataset size is observed, suggesting that the supervised filters bring better information, compared to the conventional PBF filters, as the dataset grows in terms of monitored variables (sensors) and time length. The paper demonstrates a better accuracy in forecasting when new filters are employed and its main contribution is in the field of machine learning algorithms to develop more accurate predictive systems.

Supervised filters for EEG signal in naturally occurring epilepsy forecasting

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Nearly 1% of the global population has Epilepsy. Forecasting epileptic seizures with an acceptable confidence level, could improve the disease treatment and thus the lifestyle of the people who suffer it. To do that the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is usually studied through spectral power band filtering, but this paper proposes an alternative novel method of preprocessing the EEG signal based on supervised filters. Such filters have been employed in a machine learning algorithm, such as the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), to improve the prediction of seizures. The proposed solution extends with this novel approach an algorithm that was submitted to win the third prize of an international Data Science challenge promoted by Kaggle contest platform and the American Epilepsy Society, the Epilepsy Foundation, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Mayo Clinic. A formal description of these preprocessing methods is presented and a detailed analysis in terms of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and Area Under ROC curve is performed. The obtained results show statistical significant improvements when compared with the spectral power band filtering (PBF) typical baseline. A trend between performance and the dataset size is observed, suggesting that the supervised filters bring better information, compared to the conventional PBF filters, as the dataset grows in terms of monitored variables (sensors) and time length. The paper demonstrates a better accuracy in forecasting when new filters are employed and its main contribution is in the field of machine learning algorithms to develop more accurate predictive systems. PMID:28632737

Visual gene-network analysis reveals the cancer gene co-expression in human endometrial cancer

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Endometrial cancers (ECs) are the most common form of gynecologic malignancy. Recent studies have reported that ECs reveal distinct markers for molecular pathogenesis, which in turn is linked to the various histological types of ECs. To understand further the molecular events contributing to ECs and endometrial tumorigenesis in general, a more precise identification of cancer-associated molecules and signaling networks would be useful for the detection and monitoring of malignancy, improving clinical cancer therapy, and personalization of treatments. Results ECs-specific gene co-expression networks were constructed by differential expression analysis and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA). Important pathways and putative cancer hub genes contribution to tumorigenesis of ECs were identified. An elastic-net regularized classification model was built using the cancer hub gene signatures to predict the phenotypic characteristics of ECs. The 19 cancer hub gene signatures had high predictive power to distinguish among three key principal features of ECs: grade, type, and stage. Intriguingly, these hub gene networks seem to contribute to ECs progression and malignancy via cell-cycle regulation, antigen processing and the citric acid (TCA) cycle. Conclusions The results of this study provide a powerful biomarker discovery platform to better understand the progression of ECs and to uncover potential therapeutic targets in the treatment of ECs. This information might lead to improved monitoring of ECs and resulting improvement of treatment of ECs, the 4th most common of cancer in women. PMID:24758163

Accurate Binding Free Energy Predictions in Fragment Optimization.

PubMed

Steinbrecher, Thomas B; Dahlgren, Markus; Cappel, Daniel; Lin, Teng; Wang, Lingle; Krilov, Goran; Abel, Robert; Friesner, Richard; Sherman, Woody

2015-11-23

Predicting protein-ligand binding free energies is a central aim of computational structure-based drug design (SBDD)--improved accuracy in binding free energy predictions could significantly reduce costs and accelerate project timelines in lead discovery and optimization. The recent development and validation of advanced free energy calculation methods represents a major step toward this goal. Accurately predicting the relative binding free energy changes of modifications to ligands is especially valuable in the field of fragment-based drug design, since fragment screens tend to deliver initial hits of low binding affinity that require multiple rounds of synthesis to gain the requisite potency for a project. In this study, we show that a free energy perturbation protocol, FEP+, which was previously validated on drug-like lead compounds, is suitable for the calculation of relative binding strengths of fragment-sized compounds as well. We study several pharmaceutically relevant targets with a total of more than 90 fragments and find that the FEP+ methodology, which uses explicit solvent molecular dynamics and physics-based scoring with no parameters adjusted, can accurately predict relative fragment binding affinities. The calculations afford R(2)-values on average greater than 0.5 compared to experimental data and RMS errors of ca. 1.1 kcal/mol overall, demonstrating significant improvements over the docking and MM-GBSA methods tested in this work and indicating that FEP+ has the requisite predictive power to impact fragment-based affinity optimization projects.

Mitigation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on the high power input coupler of a superconducting RF module, by comprehensive warm aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chaoen; Chang, Lung-Hai; Chang, Mei-Hsia; Chen, Ling-Jhen; Chung, Fu-Tsai; Lin, Ming-Chyuan; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lo, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Chi-Lin; Yeh, Meng-Shu; Yu, Tsung-Chi

2017-11-01

Excitation of multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation on cold surfaces of the high power input coupler in a SRF module poses the highest challenge for reliable SRF operation under high average RF power. This could prevent the light source SRF module from being operated with a desired high beam current. Off-line long-term reliability tests have been conducted for the newly constructed 500-MHz SRF KEKB type modules at an accelerating RF voltage of 1.6-MV to enable prediction of their operational reliability in the 3-GeV Taiwan Photon Source (TPS), since prediction from mere production performance by conventional horizontal test is presently unreliable. As expected, operational difficulties resulting from multipacting, enhanced by gas condensation, have been identified in the course of long-term reliability test. Our present hypothesis is that gas condensation can be slowed down by preserving the vacuum pressure at the power coupler close to that reached just after its cool down to liquid helium temperatures. This is achievable by reduction of the power coupler out-gassing rate through comprehensive warm aging. Its feasibility and effectiveness has been experimentally verified in a second long term reliability test. Our success opens the possibility to operate the SRF module free of multipacting trouble and opens a new direction to improve the operational performance of next generation SRF modules in light sources with high beam currents.

Enabling CoO improvement thru green initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, Eric; Padmabandu, G. G.; Ujazdowski, Richard; Haran, Don; Lake, Matt; Mason, Eric; Gillespie, Walter

2015-03-01

Chipmakers continued pressure to drive down costs while increasing utilization requires development in all areas. Cymer's commitment to meeting customer's needs includes developing solutions that enable higher productivity as well as lowering cost of lightsource operation. Improvements in system power efficiency and predictability were deployed to chipmakers' in 2014 with release of our latest Master Oscillating gas chamber. In addition, Cymer has committed to reduced gas usage, completing development in methods to reduce Helium gas usage while maintaining superior bandwidth and wavelength stability. The latest developments in lowering cost of operations are paired with our advanced ETC controller in Cymer's XLR 700ix product.

Assessment of Cable Aging Equipment, Status of Acquired Materials, and Experimental Matrix at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fifield, Leonard S.; Westman, Matthew P.; Zwoster, Andy

2015-03-30

The need for increased understanding of the aging and degradation behavior for polymer components of nuclear power plant electrical cables is described in this report. The highest priority materials for study and the resources available at PNNL for these studies are also described. The anticipated outcomes of the PNNL work described are : improved understanding of appropriate accelerated aging conditions, improved knowledge of correlation between observable aging indicators and cable condition in support of advanced non-destructive evaluation methods, and practical knowledge of condition-based cable lifetime prediction.

Near-Field Acoustic Power Level Analysis of F31/A31 Open Rotor Model at Simulated Cruise Conditions, Technical Report II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sree, Dave

2015-01-01

Near-field acoustic power level analysis of F31A31 open rotor model has been performed to determine its noise characteristics at simulated cruise flight conditions. The non-proprietary parts of the test data obtained from experiments in the 8x6 supersonic wind tunnel were provided by NASA-Glenn Research Center. The tone and broadband components of total noise have been separated from raw test data by using a new data analysis tool. Results in terms of sound pressure levels, acoustic power levels, and their variations with rotor speed, freestream Mach number, and input shaft power, with different blade-pitch setting angles at simulated cruise flight conditions, are presented and discussed. Empirical equations relating models acoustic power level and input shaft power have been developed. The near-field acoustic efficiency of the model at simulated cruise conditions is also determined. It is hoped that the results presented in this work will serve as a database for comparison and improvement of other open rotor blade designs and also for validating open rotor noise prediction codes.

Out of Control!? How Loss of Self-Control Influences Prosocial Behavior: The Role of Power and Moral Values

PubMed Central

Joosten, Anne; van Dijke, Marius; Van Hiel, Alain; De Cremer, David

2015-01-01

Lack of self-control has been suggested to facilitate norm-transgressing behaviors because of the operation of automatic selfish impulses. Previous research, however, has shown that people having a high moral identity may not show such selfish impulses when their self-control resources are depleted. In the present research, we extended this effect to prosocial behavior. Moreover, we investigated the role of power in the interaction between moral identity and self-control depletion. More specifically, we expected that power facilitates the externalization of internal states, which implies that for people who feel powerful, rather than powerless, depletion decreases prosocial behavior especially for those low in moral identity. A laboratory experiment and a multisource field study supported our predictions. The present finding that the interaction between self-control depletion and moral identity is contingent upon people’s level of power suggests that power may enable people to refrain from helping behavior. Moreover, the findings suggest that if organizations want to improve prosocial behaviors, it may be effective to situationally induce moral values in their employees. PMID:26024380

Out of control!? How loss of self-control influences prosocial behavior: the role of power and moral values.

PubMed

Joosten, Anne; van Dijke, Marius; Van Hiel, Alain; De Cremer, David

2015-01-01

Lack of self-control has been suggested to facilitate norm-transgressing behaviors because of the operation of automatic selfish impulses. Previous research, however, has shown that people having a high moral identity may not show such selfish impulses when their self-control resources are depleted. In the present research, we extended this effect to prosocial behavior. Moreover, we investigated the role of power in the interaction between moral identity and self-control depletion. More specifically, we expected that power facilitates the externalization of internal states, which implies that for people who feel powerful, rather than powerless, depletion decreases prosocial behavior especially for those low in moral identity. A laboratory experiment and a multisource field study supported our predictions. The present finding that the interaction between self-control depletion and moral identity is contingent upon people's level of power suggests that power may enable people to refrain from helping behavior. Moreover, the findings suggest that if organizations want to improve prosocial behaviors, it may be effective to situationally induce moral values in their employees.

Study to determine and improve design for lithium-doped solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brucker, G.; Faith, T. J.; Holmes-Siedle, A.

1971-01-01

Solar cell experiments show that a single lithium density parameter, the lithium density gradient, calculated from nondestructive capacitance measurements, provides the basis for accurate predictions of lithium cell behavior in a 1-MeV electron environment for fluences ranging between 3 X 10 to the 13th power e/sq cm and 3 X 10 to the 15th power/e sq cm. The oxygen-rich (quartz crucible) lithium cell with phosphorous starting dopant and lithium gradient between approximately 5 X 10 to the 18th power and 1.5 x 10 to the 19th power/cm to the 4th power was found superior in performance to the commercial 10 ohm-cm n/p control cells. Post-recovery stability of oxygen-rich cells was satisfactory. An average post-recovery current drop of approximately 1 mA was observed for 70 crucible cells after 1 year-equivalent storage time at 80 C. In contrast the oxygen-poor (float zone and Lopex) lithium cells displayed spotty initial performance and stability problems at room temperature.

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture - Part B: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

2016-09-01

An important advantage of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) as future systems for large scale power generation is the possibility of being efficiently integrated with processes for CO2 capture. Focusing on natural gas power generation, Part A of this work assessed the performances of advanced pressurised and atmospheric plant configurations (SOFC + GT and SOFC + ST, with fuel cell integration within a gas turbine or a steam turbine cycle) without CO2 separation. This Part B paper investigates such kind of power cycles when applied to CO2 capture, proposing two ultra-high efficiency plant configurations based on advanced intermediate-temperature SOFCs with internal reforming and low temperature CO2 separation process. The power plants are simulated at the 100 MW scale with a set of realistic assumptions about FC performances, main components and auxiliaries, and show the capability of exceeding 70% LHV efficiency with high CO2 capture (above 80%) and a low specific primary energy consumption for the CO2 avoided (1.1-2.4 MJ kg-1). Detailed results are presented in terms of energy and material balances, and a sensitivity analysis of plant performance is developed vs. FC voltage and fuel utilisation to investigate possible long-term improvements. Options for further improvement of the CO2 capture efficiency are also addressed.

Sexual Relationship Power and Depression among HIV-Infected Women in Rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Hatcher, Abigail M.; Tsai, Alexander C.; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L.; Hunt, Peter W.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R.; Weiser, Sheri D.

2012-01-01

Background Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Methods Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. Results The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.07) and high power (b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. Conclusions HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women. PMID:23300519

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirazi, M.A.; Davis, L.R.

To obtain improved prediction of heated plume characteristics from a surface jet, an integral analysis computer model was modified and a comprehensive set of field and laboratory data available from the literature was gathered, analyzed, and correlated for estimating the magnitude of certain coefficients that are normally introduced in these analyses to achieve closure. The parameters so estimated include the coefficients for entrainment, turbulent exchange, drag, and shear. Since there appeared considerable scatter in the data, even after appropriate subgrouping to narrow the influence of various flow conditions on the data, only statistical procedures could be applied to find themore » best fit. This and other analyses of its type have been widely used in industry and government for the prediction of thermal plumes from steam power plants. Although the present model has many shortcomings, a recent independent and exhaustive assessment of such predictions revealed that in comparison with other analyses of its type the present analysis predicts the field situations more successfully.« less

Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-08-01

This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental validation of boundary element methods for noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Experimental validation of methods to predict radiated noise is presented. A combined finite element and boundary element model was used to predict the vibration and noise of a rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker. The predicted noise was compared to sound power measured by the acoustic intensity method. Inaccuracies in the finite element model shifted the resonance frequencies by about 5 percent. The predicted and measured sound power levels agree within about 2.5 dB. In a second experiment, measured vibration data was used with a boundary element model to predict noise radiation from the top of an operating gearbox. The predicted and measured sound power for the gearbox agree within about 3 dB.

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

PubMed

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Glucose determination in human aqueous humor with Raman spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, James L.; Pelletier, Christine C.; Borchert, Mark

2005-01-01

It has been suggested that spectroscopic analysis of the aqueous humor of the eye could be used to indirectly predict blood glucose levels in diabetics noninvasively. We have been investigating this potential using Raman spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares (PLS) analysis. We have determined that glucose at clinically relevant concentrations can be accurately predicted in human aqueous humor in vitro using a PLS model based on artificial aqueous humor. We have further determined that with proper instrument design, the light energy necessary to achieve clinically acceptable prediction of glucose does not damage the retinas of rabbits and can be delivered at powers below internationally acceptable safety limits. Herein we summarize our current results and address our strategies to improve instrument design. 2005 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

No extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power.

PubMed

Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

2011-08-02

According to quantum theory, measurements generate random outcomes, in stark contrast with classical mechanics. This raises the question of whether there could exist an extension of the theory that removes this indeterminism, as suspected by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. Although this has been shown to be impossible, existing results do not imply that the current theory is maximally informative. Here we ask the more general question of whether any improved predictions can be achieved by any extension of quantum theory. Under the assumption that measurements can be chosen freely, we answer this question in the negative: no extension of quantum theory can give more information about the outcomes of future measurements than quantum theory itself. Our result has significance for the foundations of quantum mechanics, as well as applications to tasks that exploit the inherent randomness in quantum theory, such as quantum cryptography.

Comparison of measured and calculated dynamic loads for the Mod-2 2.5 mW wind turbine system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimmerman, D. K.; Shipley, S. A.; Miller, R. D.

1995-01-01

The Boeing Company, under contract to the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), has completed a test program on the Mod-2 wind turbines at Goodnoe Hills, Washington. The objectives were to update fatigue load spectra, discern site and machine differences, measure vortex generator effects, and to evaluate rotational sampling techniques. This paper shows the test setup and loads instrumentation, loads data comparisons and test/analysis correlations. Test data are correlated with DYLOSAT predictions using both the NASA interim turbulence model and rotationally sampled winds as inputs. The latter is demonstrated to have the potential to improve the test/analysis correlations. The paper concludes with an assessment of the importance of vortex generators, site dependence, and machine differences on fatigue loads. The adequacy of prediction techniques used are evaluated and recommendations are made for improvements to the methodology.

Investigations of Relatively Easy To Construct Antennas With Efficiency in Receiving Schumann Resonances: Preparations for a Miniaturized Reconfigurable ELF Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farmer, Brian W.; Hannan, Robert C.

2003-01-01

Relatively little is known about the cavity between the Earth and the ionosphere, which opens opportunities for technological advances and unique ideas. One effective means to study this cavity is with extremely low frequency (ELF) antennas. Possible applications of these antennas are global weather prediction, earthquake prediction, planetary exploration, communication, wireless transmission of power, or even a free energy source. The superconducting quantum interference device SQUID) and the coil antenna are the two most acceptable receivers discovered for picking up ELF magnetic fields. Both antennas have the potential for size reduction, allowing them to be portable enough for access to space and even for personal ware. With improvements of these antennas and signal processing, insightful analysis of Schumann resonance (SR) can give the science community a band of radio frequency (RF) signals for improving life here on Earth and exploring beyond.

Sulfonylureas and Glinides as New PPARγ Agonists:. Virtual Screening and Biological Assays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarsi, Marco; Podvinec, Michael; Roth, Adrian; Hug, Hubert; Kersten, Sander; Albrecht, Hugo; Schwede, Torsten; Meyer, Urs A.; Rücker, Christoph

2007-12-01

This work combines the predictive power of computational drug discovery with experimental validation by means of biological assays. In this way, a new mode of action for type 2 diabetes drugs has been unvealed. Most drugs currently employed in the treatment of type 2 diabetes either target the sulfonylurea receptor stimulating insulin release (sulfonylureas, glinides), or target PPARγ improving insulin resistance (thiazolidinediones). Our work shows that sulfonylureas and glinides bind to PPARγ and exhibit PPARγ agonistic activity. This result was predicted in silico by virtual screening and confirmed in vitro by three biological assays. This dual mode of action of sulfonylureas and glinides may open new perspectives for the molecular pharmacology of antidiabetic drugs, since it provides evidence that drugs can be designed which target both the sulfonylurea receptor and PPARγ. Targeting both receptors could in principle allow to increase pancreatic insulin secretion, as well as to improve insulin resistance.

No extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power

PubMed Central

Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

2011-01-01

According to quantum theory, measurements generate random outcomes, in stark contrast with classical mechanics. This raises the question of whether there could exist an extension of the theory that removes this indeterminism, as suspected by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. Although this has been shown to be impossible, existing results do not imply that the current theory is maximally informative. Here we ask the more general question of whether any improved predictions can be achieved by any extension of quantum theory. Under the assumption that measurements can be chosen freely, we answer this question in the negative: no extension of quantum theory can give more information about the outcomes of future measurements than quantum theory itself. Our result has significance for the foundations of quantum mechanics, as well as applications to tasks that exploit the inherent randomness in quantum theory, such as quantum cryptography. PMID:21811240

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2010-01-01

AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

In silico design of smart binders to anthrax PA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellers, Michael; Hurley, Margaret M.

2012-06-01

The development of smart peptide binders requires an understanding of the fundamental mechanisms of recognition which has remained an elusive grail of the research community for decades. Recent advances in automated discovery and synthetic library science provide a wealth of information to probe fundamental details of binding and facilitate the development of improved models for a priori prediction of affinity and specificity. Here we present the modeling portion of an iterative experimental/computational study to produce high affinity peptide binders to the Protective Antigen (PA) of Bacillus anthracis. The result is a general usage, HPC-oriented, python-based toolkit based upon powerful third-party freeware, which is designed to provide a better understanding of peptide-protein interactions and ultimately predict and measure new smart peptide binder candidates. We present an improved simulation protocol with flexible peptide docking to the Anthrax Protective Antigen, reported within the context of experimental data presented in a companion work.

Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

2010-01-01

Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering in the presence of massive neutrinos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zennaro, M.; Bel, J.; Dossett, J.; Carbone, C.; Guzzo, L.

2018-06-01

The clustering ratio is defined as the ratio between the correlation function and the variance of the smoothed overdensity field. In Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmologies without massive neutrinos, it has already been proven to be independent of bias and redshift space distortions on a range of linear scales. It therefore can provide us with a direct comparison of predictions (for matter in real space) against measurements (from galaxies in redshift space). In this paper we first extend the applicability of such properties to cosmologies that account for massive neutrinos, by performing tests against simulated data. We then investigate the constraining power of the clustering ratio on cosmological parameters such as the total neutrino mass and the equation of state of dark energy. We analyse the joint posterior distribution of the parameters that satisfy both measurements of the galaxy clustering ratio in the SDSS-DR12, and the angular power spectra of cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropies measured by the Planck satellite. We find the clustering ratio to be very sensitive to the CDM density parameter, but less sensitive to the total neutrino mass. We also forecast the constraining power the clustering ratio will achieve, predicting the amplitude of its errors with a Euclid-like galaxy survey. First we compute parameter forecasts using the Planck covariance matrix alone, then we add information from the clustering ratio. We find a significant improvement on the constraint of all considered parameters, and in particular an improvement of 40 per cent for the CDM density and 14 per cent for the total neutrino mass.

Prediction of vertical jump height from anthropometric factors in male and female martial arts athletes.

PubMed

Abidin, Nahdiya Zainal; Adam, Mohd Bakri

2013-01-01

Vertical jump is an index representing leg/kick power. The explosive movement of the kick is the key to scoring in martial arts competitions. It is important to determine factors that influence the vertical jump to help athletes improve their leg power. The objective of the present study is to identify anthropometric factors that influence vertical jump height for male and female martial arts athletes. Twenty-nine male and 25 female athletes participated in this study. Participants were Malaysian undergraduate students whose ages ranged from 18 to 24 years old. Their heights were measured using a stadiometer. The subjects were weighted using digital scale. Body mass index was calculated by kg/m(2). Waist-hip ratio was measured from the ratio of waist to hip circumferences. Body fat % was obtained from the sum of four skinfold thickness using Harpenden callipers. The highest vertical jump from a stationary standing position was recorded. The maximum grip was recorded using a dynamometer. For standing back strength, the maximum pull upwards using a handle bar was recorded. Multiple linear regression was used to obtain the relationship between vertical jump height and explanatory variables with gender effect. Body fat % has a significant negative relationship with vertical jump height (P < 0.001). The effect of gender is significant (P < 0.001): on average, males jumped 26% higher than females did. Vertical jump height of martial arts athletes can be predicted by body fat %. The vertical jump for male is higher than for their female counterparts. Reducing body fat by proper dietary planning will help to improve leg power.

Experimental validation of a sub-surface model of solar power for distributed marine sensor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, Gregory G.; Cantin, Heather P.; Shafer, Michael W.

2016-04-01

The capabilities of distributed sensor systems such as marine wildlife telemetry tags could be significantly enhanced through the integration of photovoltaic modules. Photovoltaic cells could be used to supplement the primary batteries for wildlife telemetry tags to allow for extended tag deployments, wherein larger amounts of data could be collected and transmitted in near real time. In this article, we present experimental results used to validate and improve key aspects of our original model for sub-surface solar power. We discuss the test methods and results, comparing analytic predictions to experimental results. In a previous work, we introduced a model for sub-surface solar power that used analytic models and empirical data to predict the solar irradiance available for harvest at any depth under the ocean's surface over the course of a year. This model presented underwater photovoltaic transduction as a viable means of supplementing energy for marine wildlife telemetry tags. The additional data provided by improvements in daily energy budgets would enhance the temporal and spatial comprehension of the host's activities and/or environments. Photovoltaic transduction is one method that has not been widely deployed in the sub-surface marine environments despite widespread use on terrestrial and avian species wildlife tag systems. Until now, the use of photovoltaic cells for underwater energy harvesting has generally been disregarded as a viable energy source in this arena. In addition to marine telemetry systems, photovoltaic energy harvesting systems could also serve as a means of energy supply for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), as well as submersible buoys for oceanographic data collection.

Base drag prediction on missile configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, F. G.; Hymer, T.; Wilcox, F.

1993-01-01

New wind tunnel data have been taken, and a new empirical model has been developed for predicting base drag on missile configurations. The new wind tunnel data were taken at NASA-Langley in the Unitary Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers from 2.0 to 4.5, angles of attack to 16 deg, fin control deflections up to 20 deg, fin thickness/chord of 0.05 to 0.15, and fin locations from 'flush with the base' to two chord-lengths upstream of the base. The empirical model uses these data along with previous wind tunnel data, estimating base drag as a function of all these variables as well as boat-tail and power-on/power-off effects. The new model yields improved accuracy, compared to wind tunnel data. The new model also is more robust due to inclusion of additional variables. On the other hand, additional wind tunnel data are needed to validate or modify the current empirical model in areas where data are not available.

Monitoring Wind Turbine Loading Using Power Converter Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieg, C. A.; Smith, C. J.; Crabtree, C. J.

2016-09-01

The ability to detect faults and predict loads on a wind turbine drivetrain's mechanical components cost-effectively is critical to making the cost of wind energy competitive. In order to investigate whether this is possible using the readily available power converter current signals, an existing permanent magnet synchronous generator based wind energy conversion system computer model was modified to include a grid-side converter (GSC) for an improved converter model and a gearbox. The GSC maintains a constant DC link voltage via vector control. The gearbox was modelled as a 3-mass model to allow faults to be included. Gusts and gearbox faults were introduced to investigate the ability of the machine side converter (MSC) current (I q) to detect and quantify loads on the mechanical components. In this model, gearbox faults were not detectable in the I q signal due to shaft stiffness and damping interaction. However, a model that predicts the load change on mechanical wind turbine components using I q was developed and verified using synthetic and real wind data.

Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diakov, Victor; Cole, Wesley; Sullivan, Patrick

2015-11-01

Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validitymore » of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.« less

Energy management strategy for fuel cell-supercapacitor hybrid vehicles based on prediction of energy demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carignano, Mauro G.; Costa-Castelló, Ramon; Roda, Vicente; Nigro, Norberto M.; Junco, Sergio; Feroldi, Diego

2017-08-01

Offering high efficiency and producing zero emissions Fuel Cells (FCs) represent an excellent alternative to internal combustion engines for powering vehicles to alleviate the growing pollution in urban environments. Due to inherent limitations of FCs which lead to slow transient response, FC-based vehicles incorporate an energy storage system to cover the fast power variations. This paper considers a FC/supercapacitor platform that configures a hard constrained powertrain providing an adverse scenario for the energy management strategy (EMS) in terms of fuel economy and drivability. Focusing on palliating this problem, this paper presents a novel EMS based on the estimation of short-term future energy demand and aiming at maintaining the state of energy of the supercapacitor between two limits, which are computed online. Such limits are designed to prevent active constraint situations of both FC and supercapacitor, avoiding the use of friction brakes and situations of non-power compliance in a short future horizon. Simulation and experimentation in a case study corresponding to a hybrid electric bus show improvements on hydrogen consumption and power compliance compared to the widely reported Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy. Also, the comparison with the optimal strategy via Dynamic Programming shows a room for improvement to the real-time strategies.

Rotor Wake/Stator Interaction Noise Prediction Code Technical Documentation and User's Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Topol, David A.; Mathews, Douglas C.

2010-01-01

This report documents the improvements and enhancements made by Pratt & Whitney to two NASA programs which together will calculate noise from a rotor wake/stator interaction. The code is a combination of subroutines from two NASA programs with many new features added by Pratt & Whitney. To do a calculation V072 first uses a semi-empirical wake prediction to calculate the rotor wake characteristics at the stator leading edge. Results from the wake model are then automatically input into a rotor wake/stator interaction analytical noise prediction routine which calculates inlet aft sound power levels for the blade-passage-frequency tones and their harmonics, along with the complex radial mode amplitudes. The code allows for a noise calculation to be performed for a compressor rotor wake/stator interaction, a fan wake/FEGV interaction, or a fan wake/core stator interaction. This report is split into two parts, the first part discusses the technical documentation of the program as improved by Pratt & Whitney. The second part is a user's manual which describes how input files are created and how the code is run.

Beyond clay: Towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Craig; Heckman, Katherine; Wieder, William R.; Keiluweit, Marco; Lawrence, Corey R.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Crow, Susan E.; Druhan, Jennifer; Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Plante, Alain F.; Schadel, Christina; Schmiel, Joshua P.; Sierra, Carlos A.; Thompson, Aaron; Wagai, Rota

2018-01-01

Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change. Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM turnover and fluxes of climate-active CO2 to the atmosphere. Emerging conceptual understanding, however, suggests other soil physicochemical properties may predict SOM stabilization better than clay content. We addressed this discrepancy by synthesizing data from over 5,500 soil profiles spanning continental scale environmental gradients. Here, we demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power. We show that exchangeable calcium strongly predicted SOM content in water-limited, alkaline soils, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron- and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors, demonstrating that the relative importance of SOM stabilization mechanisms scales with climate and acidity. These results highlight the urgent need to modify biogeochemical models to better reflect the role of soil physicochemical properties in SOM cycling.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

Neuroeconomics and public health

PubMed Central

Larsen, Torben

2010-01-01

Objective To design an economic evaluation strategy for general health promotion projects. Method Identification of key parameters of behavioral health from neuroeconomic studies. Results The Frontal Power of Concentration (C) is a quadripartite executive integrator depending on four key parameters: 1) The Limbic system originating ambivalent emotions (L). 2) Volition in the Prefrontal Cortex (c) controlling cognitive prediction and emotions with a view on Frontopolar long-term goals. 3) Semantic memories in the Temporal lobe (R). 4) An intuitive visuospatial sketchpad in the Parietal lobe (I). C aiming to minimize error between preferences and predictions is directly determined by the following equation including I as a stochastic knowledge component: C =Rc2/L +εI→ 1 Discussion All of the parameters of C are object to improvement by training: Cognitive predictions are improved by open-mindedness towards feedback (R).The effect of emotional regrets is reinforced by an appropriate level of fitness (c, L).Our imagination may be unfolded by in-depth-relaxation-procedures and visualization (I). Conclusion Economic evaluation of general public health should focus on the subset of separate and integrated interventions that directly affect the parameters of Formula C in individuals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

The HOT (Healthy Outcome for Teens) project. Using a web-based medium to influence attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and intention for obesity and type 2 diabetes prevention.

PubMed

Muzaffar, Henna; Chapman-Novakofski, Karen; Castelli, Darla M; Scherer, Jane A

2014-01-01

We hypothesized that Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) constructs (behavioral belief, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, knowledge and behavioral intention) regarding preventive behaviors for obesity and type 2 diabetes will change favorably after completing the web-based intervention, HOT (Healthy Outcome for Teens) project, grounded in the TPB; and that passive online learning (POL) group will improve more than the active online learning (AOL) group. The secondary hypothesis was to determine to what extent constructs of the TPB predict intentions. 216 adolescents were recruited, 127 randomly allocated to the treatment group (AOL) and 89 to the control group (POL). The subjects completed a TPB questionnaire pre and post intervention. Both POL and AOL groups showed significant improvements from pretest to posttest survey. However, the results indicated no significant difference between POL and AOL for all constructs except behavioral belief. Correlational analysis indicated that all TPB constructs were significantly correlated with intentions for pretest and posttest for both groups. Attitude and behavioral control showed strongest correlations. Regression analysis indicated that TPB constructs were predictive of intentions and the predictive power improved post intervention. Behavioral control consistently predicted intentions for all categories and was the strongest predictor for pretest scores. For posttest scores, knowledge and attitude were the strongest predictors for POL and AOL groups respectively. Thus, HOT project improved knowledge and the TPB constructs scores for targeted behaviors, healthy eating and physical activity, for prevention of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A 2.5 kW cascaded Schwarz converter for 20 kHz power distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shetler, Russell E.; Stuart, Thomas A.

1989-01-01

Because it avoids the high currents in a parallel loaded capacitor, the cascaded Schwarz converter should offer better component utilization than converters with sinusoidal output voltages. The circuit is relatively easy to protect, and it provides a predictable trapezoidal voltage waveform that should be satisfactory for 20-kHz distribution systems. Analysis of the system is enhanced by plotting curves of normalized variables vs. gamma(1), where gamma(1) is proportional to the variable frequency of the first stage. Light-load operation is greatly improved by the addition of a power recycling rectifier bridge that is back biased at medium to heavy loads. Operation has been verified on a 2.5-kW circuit that uses input and output voltages in the same range as those anticipated for certain future spacecraft power systems.

Four Bed Molecular Sieve - Exploration (4BMS-X) Virtual Heater Design and Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schunk, R. Gregory; Peters, Warren T.; Thomas, John T., Jr.

2017-01-01

A 4BMS-X (Four Bed Molecular Sieve - Exploration) design and heater optimization study for CO2 sorbent beds in proposed exploration system architectures is presented. The primary objectives of the study are to reduce heater power and thermal gradients within the CO2 sorbent beds while minimizing channeling effects. Some of the notable changes from the ISS (International Space Station) CDRA (Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly) to the proposed exploration system architecture include cylindrical beds, alternate sorbents and an improved heater core. Results from both 2D and 3D sorbent bed thermal models with integrated heaters are presented. The 2D sorbent bed models are used to optimize heater power and fin geometry while the 3D models address end effects in the beds for more realistic thermal gradient and heater power predictions.

Expanded modeling of temperature-dependent dielectric properties for microwave thermal ablation

PubMed Central

Ji, Zhen; Brace, Christopher L

2011-01-01

Microwaves are a promising source for thermal tumor ablation due to their ability to rapidly heat dispersive biological tissues, often to temperatures in excess of 100 °C. At these high temperatures, tissue dielectric properties change rapidly and, thus, so do the characteristics of energy delivery. Precise knowledge of how tissue dielectric properties change during microwave heating promises to facilitate more accurate simulation of device performance and helps optimize device geometry and energy delivery parameters. In this study, we measured the dielectric properties of liver tissue during high-temperature microwave heating. The resulting data were compiled into either a sigmoidal function of temperature or an integration of the time–temperature curve for both relative permittivity and effective conductivity. Coupled electromagnetic–thermal simulations of heating produced by a single monopole antenna using the new models were then compared to simulations with existing linear and static models, and experimental temperatures in liver tissue. The new sigmoidal temperature-dependent model more accurately predicted experimental temperatures when compared to temperature–time integrated or existing models. The mean percent differences between simulated and experimental temperatures over all times were 4.2% for sigmoidal, 10.1% for temperature–time integration, 27.0% for linear and 32.8% for static models at the antenna input power of 50 W. Correcting for tissue contraction improved agreement for powers up to 75 W. The sigmoidal model also predicted substantial changes in heating pattern due to dehydration. We can conclude from these studies that a sigmoidal model of tissue dielectric properties improves prediction of experimental results. More work is needed to refine and generalize this model. PMID:21791728

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

Predication of different stages of Alzheimer's disease using neighborhood component analysis and ensemble decision tree.

PubMed

Jin, Mingwu; Deng, Weishu

2018-05-15

There is a spectrum of the progression from healthy control (HC) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) without conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD), to MCI with conversion to AD (cMCI), and to AD. This study aims to predict the different disease stages using brain structural information provided by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. The neighborhood component analysis (NCA) is applied to select most powerful features for prediction. The ensemble decision tree classifier is built to predict which group the subject belongs to. The best features and model parameters are determined by cross validation of the training data. Our results show that 16 out of a total of 429 features were selected by NCA using 240 training subjects, including MMSE score and structural measures in memory-related regions. The boosting tree model with NCA features can achieve prediction accuracy of 56.25% on 160 test subjects. Principal component analysis (PCA) and sequential feature selection (SFS) are used for feature selection, while support vector machine (SVM) is used for classification. The boosting tree model with NCA features outperforms all other combinations of feature selection and classification methods. The results suggest that NCA be a better feature selection strategy than PCA and SFS for the data used in this study. Ensemble tree classifier with boosting is more powerful than SVM to predict the subject group. However, more advanced feature selection and classification methods or additional measures besides structural MRI may be needed to improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.