Deploying dengue-suppressing Wolbachia : Robust models predict slow but effective spatial spread in Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Turelli, Michael; Barton, Nicholas H

2017-06-01

A novel strategy for controlling the spread of arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya is to transform mosquito populations with virus-suppressing Wolbachia. In general, Wolbachia transinfected into mosquitoes induce fitness costs through lower viability or fecundity. These maternally inherited bacteria also produce a frequency-dependent advantage for infected females by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), which kills the embryos produced by uninfected females mated to infected males. These competing effects, a frequency-dependent advantage and frequency-independent costs, produce bistable Wolbachia frequency dynamics. Above a threshold frequency, denoted pˆ, CI drives fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections through local populations; but below pˆ, infection frequencies tend to decline to zero. If pˆ is not too high, CI also drives spatial spread once infections become established over sufficiently large areas. We illustrate how simple models provide testable predictions concerning the spatial and temporal dynamics of Wolbachia introductions, focusing on rate of spatial spread, the shape of spreading waves, and the conditions for initiating spread from local introductions. First, we consider the robustness of diffusion-based predictions to incorporating two important features of wMel-Aedes aegypti biology that may be inconsistent with the diffusion approximations, namely fast local dynamics induced by complete CI (i.e., all embryos produced from incompatible crosses die) and long-tailed, non-Gaussian dispersal. With complete CI, our numerical analyses show that long-tailed dispersal changes wave-width predictions only slightly; but it can significantly reduce wave speed relative to the diffusion prediction; it also allows smaller local introductions to initiate spatial spread. Second, we use approximations for pˆ and dispersal distances to predict the outcome of 2013 releases of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti in Cairns, Australia, Third

Spatial sorting promotes the spread of maladaptive hybridization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowe, Winsor H.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Allendorf, Fred W.

2015-01-01

Invasive hybridization is causing loss of biodiversity worldwide. The spread of such introgression can occur even when hybrids have reduced Darwinian fitness, which decreases the frequency of hybrids due to low survival or reproduction through time. This paradox can be partially explained by spatial sorting, where genotypes associated with dispersal increase in frequency at the edge of expansion, fueling further expansion and allowing invasive hybrids to increase in frequency through space rather than time. Furthermore, because all progeny of a hybrid will be hybrids (i.e., will possess genes from both parental taxa), nonnative admixture in invaded populations can increase even when most hybrid progeny do not survive. Broader understanding of spatial sorting is needed to protect native biodiversity.

Effects of spatial heterogeneity in moisture content on the horizontal spread of peat fires.

PubMed

Prat-Guitart, Nuria; Rein, Guillermo; Hadden, Rory M; Belcher, Claire M; Yearsley, Jon M

2016-12-01

The gravimetric moisture content of peat is the main factor limiting the ignition and spread propagation of smouldering fires. Our aim is to use controlled laboratory experiments to better understand how the spread of smouldering fires is influenced in natural landscape conditions where the moisture content of the top peat layer is not homogeneous. In this paper, we study for the first time the spread of peat fires across a spatial matrix of two moisture contents (dry/wet) in the laboratory. The experiments were undertaken using an open-top insulated box (22×18×6cm) filled with milled peat. The peat was ignited at one side of the box initiating smouldering and horizontal spread. Measurements of the peak temperature inside the peat, fire duration and longwave thermal radiation from the burning samples revealed important local changes of the smouldering behaviour in response to sharp gradients in moisture content. Both, peak temperatures and radiation in wetter peat (after the moisture gradient) were sensitive to the drier moisture condition (preceding the moisture gradient). Drier peat conditions before the moisture gradient led to higher temperatures and higher radiation flux from the fire during the first 6cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. The total spread distance into a wet peat patch was affected by the moisture content gradient. We predicted that in most peat moisture gradients of relevance to natural ecosystems the fire self-extinguishes within the first 10cm of horizontal spread into a wet peat patch. Spread distances of more than 10cm are limited to wet peat patches below 160% moisture content (mass of water per mass of dry peat). We found that spatial gradients of moisture content have important local effects on the horizontal spread and should be considered in field and modelling studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling space of spread Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Central Java use spatial durbin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ispriyanti, Dwi; Prahutama, Alan; Taryono, Arkadina PN

2018-05-01

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial Durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. By using queen contiguity and rook contiguity, the best model produced is the SDM model with queen contiguity because it has the smallest AIC value of 494,12. Factors that generally affect the spread of DHF in Central Java Province are the number of population and the average length of school.

Modeling the potential of different countries for pandemic spread over the global air network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhe; Lv, Baolei; Xu, Bing

2017-04-01

Air network plays an important role in the spread of global epidemics due to its superior speed and range. Understanding the disease transmission pattern via network is the foundation for the prevention and control of future pandemics. In this study, we measured the potential of different countries for the pandemic spread by using a disease transmission model which integrated inter-country air traffic flow and geographic distance. The model was verified on the spread pattern of 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1 influenza and 2014 Ebola by setting starting point at China, Mexico and Guinea respectively. Results showed that the model well reproduced the spread direction during the early stage as the time course were in good agreement with the reported arrival dates. Then the model was used to simulate the potential risk of each country in spreading the disease as the origin country. We observed that countries in North America, Europe and East Asia had the highest risk of transmission considering their high degree in the air network. We also found that for most starting countries, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France would become the most-important spreading cores. Compared with empirical Susceptible-Infectious-Recover model, this model could respond much faster to the disease spread with no need for empirical disease transmission parameters.

Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Tom L.; Barton, Nicholas H.; Rašić, Gordana; Turley, Andrew P.; Montgomery, Brian L.; Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Inaki; Cook, Peter E.; Ryan, Peter A.; Ritchie, Scott A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; O’Neill, Scott L.

2017-01-01

Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2), we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100–200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2) produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation. PMID:28557993

Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Schmidt, Tom L; Barton, Nicholas H; Rašić, Gordana; Turley, Andrew P; Montgomery, Brian L; Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Inaki; Cook, Peter E; Ryan, Peter A; Ritchie, Scott A; Hoffmann, Ary A; O'Neill, Scott L; Turelli, Michael

2017-05-01

Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2), we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100-200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2) produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation.

Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary.

PubMed

Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-12-01

In this paper, a reaction-diffusion system is proposed to model the spatial spreading of West Nile virus in vector mosquitoes and host birds in North America. Transmission dynamics are based on a simplified model involving mosquitoes and birds, and the free boundary is introduced to model and explore the expanding front of the infected region. The spatial-temporal risk index [Formula: see text], which involves regional characteristic and time, is defined for the simplified reaction-diffusion model with the free boundary to compare with other related threshold values, including the usual basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sufficient conditions for the virus to vanish or to spread are given. Our results suggest that the virus will be in a scenario of vanishing if [Formula: see text], and will spread to the whole region if [Formula: see text] for some [Formula: see text], while if [Formula: see text], the spreading or vanishing of the virus depends on the initial number of infected individuals, the area of the infected region, the diffusion rate and other factors. Moreover, some remarks on the basic reproduction numbers and the spreading speeds are presented and compared.

Attention-spreading based on hierarchical spatial representations for connected objects.

PubMed

Kasai, Tetsuko

2010-01-01

Attention selects objects or groups as the most fundamental unit, and this may be achieved through a process in which attention automatically spreads throughout their entire region. Previously, we found that a lateralized potential relative to an attended hemifield at occipito-temporal electrode sites reflects attention-spreading in response to connected bilateral stimuli [Kasai, T., & Kondo, M. Electrophysiological correlates of attention-spreading in visual grouping. NeuroReport, 18, 93-98, 2007]. The present study examined the nature of object representations by manipulating the extent of grouping through connectedness, while controlling the symmetrical structure of bilateral stimuli. The electrophysiological results of two experiments consistently indicated that attention was guided twice in association with perceptual grouping in the early phase (N1, 150-200 msec poststimulus) and with the unity of an object in the later phase (N2pc, 310/330-390 msec). This suggests that there are two processes in object-based spatial selection, and these are discussed with regard to their cognitive mechanisms and object representations.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Spatial Spread of the Root Parasitic Weed Phelipanche aegyptiaca in Processing Tomatoes by Using Ecoinformatics and Spatial Analysis†

PubMed Central

Cohen, Yafit; Roei, Itai; Blank, Lior; Goldshtein, Eitan; Eizenberg, Hanan

2017-01-01

Egyptian broomrape (Phelipanche aegyptiaca) is one of the main threats to tomato production in Israel. The seed bank of P. aegyptiaca rapidly develops and spreads in the field. Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of such weeds is required in advance of emergence, as they emerge late in their life cycle when they have already caused major crop damage. The aim of this study is to reveal the effects of two major internal infestation sources: crop rotation and infestation history; and one external source: proximity to infested tomato fields; on infestation of P. aegyptiaca in processing tomatoes. Ecoinformatics, spatial analysis and geostatistics were used to examine these effects. A regional survey was conducted to collect data on field history from 238 tomato fields between 2000 and 2012, in a major tomato-growing region in Israel. Multivariate logistic regression in the framework of generalized linear models (GLM) has demonstrated the importance of all three variables in predicting infestation in tomato fields. The parameters of the overall model indicated a high specificity between tomatoes and P. aegyptiaca, which is potentially responsible for aggravating infestation. In addition, P. aegyptiaca infestation levels were intensively mapped in 43 of the 238 tomato fields in the years 2010–2012. Geostatistical measures showed that 40% of the fields had clustered infestation spatial patterns with infestation clusters located along the fields’ borders. Strong linear and negative relationships were found between infestation level and distance from a neighboring infested field, strengthening the role of infested tomato fields in P. aegyptiaca spread. An experiment specifically designed for this study showed that during harvest, P. aegyptiaca seeds are blown from an infested field to a distance of at least 90 m, and may initiate infestation in neighboring fields. Integrating current knowledge about the role of agricultural practices on the spread of P

Spatial Spread of the Root Parasitic Weed Phelipanche aegyptiaca in Processing Tomatoes by Using Ecoinformatics and Spatial Analysis.

PubMed

Cohen, Yafit; Roei, Itai; Blank, Lior; Goldshtein, Eitan; Eizenberg, Hanan

2017-01-01

Egyptian broomrape ( Phelipanche aegyptiaca ) is one of the main threats to tomato production in Israel. The seed bank of P. aegyptiaca rapidly develops and spreads in the field. Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of such weeds is required in advance of emergence, as they emerge late in their life cycle when they have already caused major crop damage. The aim of this study is to reveal the effects of two major internal infestation sources: crop rotation and infestation history; and one external source: proximity to infested tomato fields; on infestation of P. aegyptiaca in processing tomatoes. Ecoinformatics, spatial analysis and geostatistics were used to examine these effects. A regional survey was conducted to collect data on field history from 238 tomato fields between 2000 and 2012, in a major tomato-growing region in Israel. Multivariate logistic regression in the framework of generalized linear models (GLM) has demonstrated the importance of all three variables in predicting infestation in tomato fields. The parameters of the overall model indicated a high specificity between tomatoes and P. aegyptiaca , which is potentially responsible for aggravating infestation. In addition, P. aegyptiaca infestation levels were intensively mapped in 43 of the 238 tomato fields in the years 2010-2012. Geostatistical measures showed that 40% of the fields had clustered infestation spatial patterns with infestation clusters located along the fields' borders. Strong linear and negative relationships were found between infestation level and distance from a neighboring infested field, strengthening the role of infested tomato fields in P. aegyptiaca spread. An experiment specifically designed for this study showed that during harvest, P. aegyptiaca seeds are blown from an infested field to a distance of at least 90 m, and may initiate infestation in neighboring fields. Integrating current knowledge about the role of agricultural practices on the spread of P

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

PubMed

Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

2013-04-01

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Object size determines the spatial spread of visual time

PubMed Central

McGraw, Paul V.; Roach, Neil W.; Whitaker, David

2016-01-01

A key question for temporal processing research is how the nervous system extracts event duration, despite a notable lack of neural structures dedicated to duration encoding. This is in stark contrast with the orderly arrangement of neurons tasked with spatial processing. In this study, we examine the linkage between the spatial and temporal domains. We use sensory adaptation techniques to generate after-effects where perceived duration is either compressed or expanded in the opposite direction to the adapting stimulus' duration. Our results indicate that these after-effects are broadly tuned, extending over an area approximately five times the size of the stimulus. This region is directly related to the size of the adapting stimulus—the larger the adapting stimulus the greater the spatial spread of the after-effect. We construct a simple model to test predictions based on overlapping adapted versus non-adapted neuronal populations and show that our effects cannot be explained by any single, fixed-scale neural filtering. Rather, our effects are best explained by a self-scaled mechanism underpinned by duration selective neurons that also pool spatial information across earlier stages of visual processing. PMID:27466452

The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciddio, Manuela; Mari, Lorenzo; Sokolow, Susanne H.; De Leo, Giulio A.; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino

2017-10-01

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that is prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe and chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study the spatial spread of this disease within a network of connected villages in the endemic region of the Lower Basin of the Senegal River, in Senegal. The analysis is performed by means of a spatially explicit metapopulation model that couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with spatial mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile phone records), snail dispersal and hydrological transport of schistosome larvae along the main water bodies of the region. Results show that the model produces epidemiological patterns consistent with field observations, and point out the key role of spatial connectivity on the spread of the disease. These findings underline the importance of considering different transport pathways in order to elaborate disease control strategies that can be effective within a network of connected populations.

Thoron, radon and air ions spatial distribution in indoor air.

PubMed

Kolarž, Predrag; Vaupotič, Janja; Kobal, Ivan; Ujić, Predrag; Stojanovska, Zdenka; Žunić, Zora S

2017-07-01

Spatial distribution of radioactive gasses thoron (Tn) and radon (Rn) in indoor air of 9 houses mostly during winter period of 2013 has been studied. According to properties of alpha decay of both elements, air ionization was also measured. Simultaneous continual measurements using three Rn/Tn and three air-ion active instruments deployed on to three different distances from the wall surface have shown various outcomes. It has turned out that Tn and air ions concentrations decrease with the distance increase, while Rn remained uniformly distributed. Exponential fittings function for Tn variation with distance was used for the diffusion length and constant as well as the exhalation rate determination. The obtained values were similar with experimental data reported in the literature. Concentrations of air ions were found to be in relation with Rn and obvious, but to a lesser extent, with Tn. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial measurement error and correction by spatial SIMEX in linear regression models when using predicted air pollution exposures.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent

2016-04-01

Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Air Pollution Exposure Assessment

PubMed Central

Dias, Daniela; Tchepel, Oxana

2018-01-01

Analyzing individual exposure in urban areas offers several challenges where both the individual’s activities and air pollution levels demonstrate a large degree of spatial and temporal dynamics. This review article discusses the concepts, key elements, current developments in assessing personal exposure to urban air pollution (seventy-two studies reviewed) and respective advantages and disadvantages. A new conceptual structure to organize personal exposure assessment methods is proposed according to two classification criteria: (i) spatial-temporal variations of individuals’ activities (point-fixed or trajectory based) and (ii) characterization of air quality (variable or uniform). This review suggests that the spatial and temporal variability of urban air pollution levels in combination with indoor exposures and individual’s time-activity patterns are key elements of personal exposure assessment. In the literature review, the majority of revised studies (44 studies) indicate that the trajectory based with variable air quality approach provides a promising framework for tackling the important question of inter- and intra-variability of individual exposure. However, future quantitative comparison between the different approaches should be performed, and the selection of the most appropriate approach for exposure quantification should take into account the purpose of the health study. This review provides a structured basis for the intercomparing of different methodologies and to make their advantages and limitations more transparent in addressing specific research objectives. PMID:29558426

Material Properties Governing Co-Current Flame Spread: The Effect of Air Entrainment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coutin, Mickael; Rangwala, Ali S.; Torero, Jose L.; Buckley, Steven G.

2003-01-01

A study on the effects of lateral air entrainment on an upward spreading flame has been conducted. The fuel is a flat PMMA plate of constant length and thickness but variable width. Video images and surface temperatures have allowed establishing the progression of the pyrolyis front and on the flame stand-off distance. These measurements have been incorporated into a theoretical formulation to establish characteristic mass transfer numbers ("B" numbers). The mass transfer number is deemed as a material related parameter that could be used to assess the potential of a material to sustain co-current flame spread. The experimental results show that the theoretical formulation fails to describe heat exchange between the flame and the surface. The discrepancies seem to be associated to lateral air entrainment that lifts the flame off the surface and leads to an over estimation of the local mass transfer number. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements are in the process of being acquired. These measurements are intended to provide insight on the effect of air entrainment on the flame stand-off distance. A brief description of the methodology to be followed is presented here.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of air quality and air pollutants in 2013 in Beijing.

PubMed

Yan, Shujun; Cao, Hui; Chen, Ying; Wu, Chengzhen; Hong, Tao; Fan, Hailan

2016-07-01

Air pollution has become an ever more critical issue in Beijing in more recent years. In this study, we use the air quality index (AQI), corresponding primary pollutant types and meteorological data which are collected at 16 monitoring stations in Beijing between January 2013 and December, 2013 studying the spatial and temporal variations of air quality and air pollutants. The results show that PM2.5 was the most serious pollutant, followed by O3. The average PM2.5 mass concentration was 119.5 ± 13.8 μg m(-3) in Beijing. In addition, the air quality varies across different seasons. More specifically, winter season showed the worst air quality. Moreover, while particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) concentrations were relatively higher in the spring and winter seasons, gaseous pollutants (O3 and NO2) were more serious in the summer and autumn. In terms of spatial heterogeneity, the findings showed that AQI and PM2.5 concentrations were higher in south and lower in the north of the city, and the O3 showed exactly a pattern with the opposite direction-higher in the north and lower in the south. NO2 was found to have a greater impact on the central region compared with that in other regions. Furthermore, PM2.5 was found to be positively correlated with the relative humidity, but negatively correlated with wind speed and atmospheric pressure (P < 0.01). However, the dominant meteorological factors that influence the PM2.5 concentrations varied in different seasons. The results in this paper provide additional information for the effective control of the air pollution in Beijing.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

Spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic tropical city in northern Argentina.

PubMed

Gil, José F; Palacios, Maximiliano; Krolewiecki, Alejandro J; Cortada, Pedro; Flores, Rosana; Jaime, Cesar; Arias, Luis; Villalpando, Carlos; Alberti DÁmato, Anahí M; Nasser, Julio R; Aparicio, Juan P

2016-06-01

After more than eighty years dengue reemerged in Argentina in 1997. Since then, the largest epidemic in terms of geographical extent, magnitude and mortality, was recorded in 2009. In this report we analyzed the DEN-1 epidemic spread in Orán, a mid-size city in a non-endemic tropical area in Northern Argentina, and its correlation with demographic and socioeconomic factors. Cases were diagnosed by ELISA between January and June 2009. We applied a space-time and spatial scan statistic under a Poisson model. Possible association between dengue incidence and socio-economic variables was studied with the Spearman correlation test. The epidemic started from an imported case from Bolivia and space-time analysis detected two clusters: one on February and other in April (in the south and the northeast of the city respectively) with risk ratios of 25.24 and 4.07 (p<0.01). Subsequent cases spread widely around the city without significant space-temporal clustering. Maximum values of the entomological indices were observed in January, at the beginning of the epidemic (B=21.96; LH=8.39). No statistically significant association between socioeconomic variables and dengue incidence was found but positive correlation between population size and the number of cases (p<0.05) was detected. Two mechanisms may explain the observed pattern of epidemic spread in this non-endemic tropical city: a) Short range dispersal of mosquitoes and people generates clusters of cases and b) long-distance (within the city) human movement contributes to a quasi-random distribution of cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine-scale landscape genomics helps explain the slow spatial spread of Wolbachia through the Aedes aegypti population in Cairns, Australia.

PubMed

Schmidt, Thomas L; Filipović, Igor; Hoffmann, Ary A; Rašić, Gordana

2018-05-01

The endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia suppresses the capacity for arbovirus transmission in the mosquito Aedes aegypti, and can spread spatially through wild mosquito populations following local introductions. Recent introductions in Cairns, Australia have demonstrated slower than expected spatial spread. Potential reasons for this include: (i) barriers to Ae. aegypti dispersal; (ii) higher incidence of long-range dispersal; and (iii) intergenerational loss of Wolbachia. We investigated these three potential factors using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and an assay for the Wolbachia infection wMel in 161 Ae. aegypti collected from Cairns in 2015. We detected a small but significant barrier effect of Cairns highways on Ae. aegypti dispersal using distance-based redundancy analysis and patch-based simulation analysis. We detected a pair of putative full-siblings in ovitraps 1312 m apart, indicating long-distance female movement likely mediated by human transport. We also found a pair of full-siblings of different infection status, indicating intergenerational loss of Wolbachia in the field. These three factors are all expected to contribute to the slow spread of Wolbachia through Ae. aegypti populations, though from our results it is unclear whether Wolbachia loss and long-distance movement are sufficiently common to reduce the speed of spatial spread appreciably. Our findings inform the strategic deployment of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes during releases, and show how parameter estimates from laboratory studies may differ from those estimated using field data. Our landscape genomics approach can be extended to other host/symbiont systems that are being considered for biocontrol.

Epidural spread of iohexol following the use of air or saline in the 'loss of resistance' test.

PubMed

Iseri, Toshie; Nishimura, Ryohei; Nagahama, Shotaro; Mochizuki, Manabu; Nakagawa, Takayuki; Fujimoto, Yuka; Zhang, Di; Sasaki, Nobuo

2010-11-01

To compare, using CT epidurography, the cranial distribution of contrast after epidural injection when saline or air is used for the loss of resistance (LOR) technique in identifying the epidural space. Prospective, randomized, cross-over experimental study. Nine healthy adult Beagle dogs. Under general anaesthesia, a spinal needle (22-gauge, 70 mm) was inserted through the lumbosacral space, and the position in the epidural space confirmed using the LOR technique employing either 0.3 mL per dog of saline or of air. Epidurography using CT was performed before and 5, 10 and 20 minutes after epidural injection of 0.2 mL kg(-1) of iohexol. The cranial distribution of iohexol was recorded as the number of vertebral segments reached from the seventh lumbar vertebrae. The median values in vertebral segments of the cranial distribution at 5, 10 and 20 minutes after epidural injection were 19.5, 20.5 and 21.0 respectively with the saline treatment, and 12.0, 15.0 and 16.0 respectively in the air treatment. At all time points spread of contrast was significantly less with the air treatment. All dogs after air treatment had some air bubbles in the epidural space, and in seven, the spinal cord was moderately compressed by the air. No neurological complications were observed after recovery. The use of air for the LOR technique is associated with significantly less spread, uneven cranial distribution of the contrast medium and compression of the spinal cord. It is recommended that saline, and not air, should be used to identify the epidural space by this method. © 2010 The Authors. Veterinary Anaesthesia and Analgesia © 2010 Association of Veterinary Anaesthetists and the American College of Veterinary Anesthesiologists.

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

PubMed Central

Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

2010-01-01

Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

Generic aspects of the airborne spread of human pathogens indoors and emerging air decontamination technologies.

PubMed

Ijaz, M Khalid; Zargar, Bahram; Wright, Kathryn E; Rubino, Joseph R; Sattar, Syed A

2016-09-02

Indoor air can be an important vehicle for a variety of human pathogens. This review provides examples of airborne transmission of infectious agents from experimental and field studies and discusses how airborne pathogens can contaminate other parts of the environment to give rise to secondary vehicles leading air-surface-air nexus with possible transmission to susceptible hosts. The following groups of human pathogens are covered because of their known or potential airborne spread: vegetative bacteria (staphylococci and legionellae), fungi (Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Cladosporium spp and Stachybotrys chartarum), enteric viruses (noro- and rotaviruses), respiratory viruses (influenza and coronaviruses), mycobacteria (tuberculous and nontuberculous), and bacterial spore formers (Clostridium difficile and Bacillus anthracis). An overview of methods for experimentally generating and recovering airborne human pathogens is included, along with a discussion of factors that influence microbial survival in indoor air. Available guidelines from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other global regulatory bodies for the study of airborne pathogens are critically reviewed with particular reference to microbial surrogates that are recommended. Recent developments in experimental facilities to contaminate indoor air with microbial aerosols are presented, along with emerging technologies to decontaminate indoor air under field-relevant conditions. Furthermore, the role that air decontamination may play in reducing the contamination of environmental surfaces and its combined impact on interrupting the risk of pathogen spread in both domestic and institutional settings is discussed. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measuring the value of air quality: application of the spatial hedonic model.

PubMed

Kim, Seung Gyu; Cho, Seong-Hoon; Lambert, Dayton M; Roberts, Roland K

2010-03-01

This study applies a hedonic model to assess the economic benefits of air quality improvement following the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment at the county level in the lower 48 United States. An instrumental variable approach that combines geographically weighted regression and spatial autoregression methods (GWR-SEM) is adopted to simultaneously account for spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. SEM mitigates spatial dependency while GWR addresses spatial heterogeneity by allowing response coefficients to vary across observations. Positive amenity values of improved air quality are found in four major clusters: (1) in East Kentucky and most of Georgia around the Southern Appalachian area; (2) in a few counties in Illinois; (3) on the border of Oklahoma and Kansas, on the border of Kansas and Nebraska, and in east Texas; and (4) in a few counties in Montana. Clusters of significant positive amenity values may exist because of a combination of intense air pollution and consumer awareness of diminishing air quality.

Estimating wildland fire rate of spread in a spatially nonuniform environment

Treesearch

Francis M Fujioka

1985-01-01

Estimating rate of fire spread is a key element in planning for effective fire control. Land managers use the Rothermel spread model, but the model assumptions are violated when fuel, weather, and topography are nonuniform. This paper compares three averaging techniques--arithmetic mean of spread rates, spread based on mean fuel conditions, and harmonic mean of spread...

Spatial Allocator for air quality modeling

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Spatial Allocator is a set of tools that helps users manipulate and generate data files related to emissions and air quality modeling without requiring the use of a commercial Geographic Information System.

Temporal and spatial correlation patterns of air pollutants in Chinese cities

PubMed Central

Dai, Yue-Hua

2017-01-01

As a huge threat to the public health, China’s air pollution has attracted extensive attention and continues to grow in tandem with the economy. Although the real-time air quality report can be utilized to update our knowledge on air quality, questions about how pollutants evolve across time and how pollutants are spatially correlated still remain a puzzle. In view of this point, we adopt the PMFG network method to analyze the six pollutants’ hourly data in 350 Chinese cities in an attempt to find out how these pollutants are correlated temporally and spatially. In terms of time dimension, the results indicate that, except for O3, the pollutants have a common feature of the strong intraday patterns of which the daily variations are composed of two contraction periods and two expansion periods. Besides, all the time series of the six pollutants possess strong long-term correlations, and this temporal memory effect helps to explain why smoggy days are always followed by one after another. In terms of space dimension, the correlation structure shows that O3 is characterized by the highest spatial connections. The PMFGs reveal the relationship between this spatial correlation and provincial administrative divisions by filtering the hierarchical structure in the correlation matrix and refining the cliques as the tinny spatial clusters. Finally, we check the stability of the correlation structure and conclude that, except for PM10 and O3, the other pollutants have an overall stable correlation, and all pollutants have a slight trend to become more divergent in space. These results not only enhance our understanding of the air pollutants’ evolutionary process, but also shed lights on the application of complex network methods into geographic issues. PMID:28832599

Spatial assessment of air quality patterns in Malaysia using multivariate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominick, Doreena; Juahir, Hafizan; Latif, Mohd Talib; Zain, Sharifuddin M.; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2012-12-01

This study aims to investigate possible sources of air pollutants and the spatial patterns within the eight selected Malaysian air monitoring stations based on a two-year database (2008-2009). The multivariate analysis was applied on the dataset. It incorporated Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA) to access the spatial patterns, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the major sources of the air pollution and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to assess the percentage contribution of each air pollutant. The HACA results grouped the eight monitoring stations into three different clusters, based on the characteristics of the air pollutants and meteorological parameters. The PCA analysis showed that the major sources of air pollution were emissions from motor vehicles, aircraft, industries and areas of high population density. The MLR analysis demonstrated that the main pollutant contributing to variability in the Air Pollutant Index (API) at all stations was particulate matter with a diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10). Further MLR analysis showed that the main air pollutant influencing the high concentration of PM10 was carbon monoxide (CO). This was due to combustion processes, particularly originating from motor vehicles. Meteorological factors such as ambient temperature, wind speed and humidity were also noted to influence the concentration of PM10.

Lattice Three-Species Models of the Spatial Spread of Rabies among FOXES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benyoussef, A.; Boccara, N.; Chakib, H.; Ez-Zahraouy, H.

Lattice models describing the spatial spread of rabies among foxes are studied. In these models, the fox population is divided into three-species: susceptible (S), infected or incubating (I), and infectious or rabid (R). They are based on the fact that susceptible and incubating foxes are territorial while rabid foxes have lost their sense of direction and move erratically. Two different models are investigated: a one-dimensional coupled-map lattice model, and a two-dimensional automata network model. Both models take into account the short-range character of the infection process and the diffusive motion of rabid foxes. Numerical simulations show how the spatial distribution of rabies, and the speed of propagation of the epizootic front depend upon the carrying capacity of the environment and diffusion of rabid foxes out of their territory.

Spatial-temporal and cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle.

PubMed

Wu, Chang-fu; Liu, L-J Sally; Cullen, Alison; Westberg, Hal; Williamson, John

2011-01-01

In the Seattle Air Toxics Monitoring Pilot Program, we measured 15 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) at 6 sites for more than a year between 2000 and 2002. Spatial-temporal variations were evaluated with random-effects models and principal component analyses. The potential health risks were further estimated based on the monitored data, with the incorporation of the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. It is found that the temporal variability was generally higher than the spatial variability for most air toxics. The highest temporal variability was observed for tetrachloroethylene (70% temporal vs. 34% spatial variability). Nevertheless, most air toxics still exhibited significant spatial variations, even after accounting for the temporal effects. These results suggest that it would require operating multiple air toxics monitoring sites over a significant period of time with proper monitoring frequency to better evaluate population exposure to HAPs. The median values of the estimated inhalation cancer risks ranged between 4.3 × 10⁻⁵ and 6.0 × 10⁻⁵, with the 5th and 95th percentile levels exceeding the 1 in a million level. VOCs as a whole contributed over 80% of the risk among the HAPs measured and arsenic contributed most substantially to the overall risk associated with metals. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

China's Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model.

PubMed

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-09-18

Background : Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China's economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods : Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM 2.5 . Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results : It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM 2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions : Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables.

An analysis of spatial representativeness of air temperature monitoring stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suhua; Su, Hongbo; Tian, Jing; Wang, Weizhen

2018-05-01

Surface air temperature is an essential variable for monitoring the atmosphere, and it is generally acquired at meteorological stations that can provide information about only a small area within an r m radius ( r-neighborhood) of the station, which is called the representable radius. In studies on a local scale, ground-based observations of surface air temperatures obtained from scattered stations are usually interpolated using a variety of methods without ascertaining their effectiveness. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the spatial representativeness of ground-based observations of surface air temperature before conducting studies on a local scale. The present study used remote sensing data to estimate the spatial distribution of surface air temperature using the advection-energy balance for air temperature (ADEBAT) model. Two target stations in the study area were selected to conduct an analysis of spatial representativeness. The results showed that one station (AWS 7) had a representable radius of about 400 m with a possible error of less than 1 K, while the other station (AWS 16) had the radius of about 250 m. The representable radius was large when the heterogeneity of land cover around the station was small.

Spreading of Cholera through Surface Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2009-12-01

Cholera epidemics are still a major public health concern to date in many areas of the world. In order to understand and forecast cholera outbreaks, one of the most important factors is the role played by the environmental matrix in which the disease spreads. We study how river networks, acting as environmental corridors for pathogens, affect the spreading of cholera epidemics. The environmental matrix in which the disease spreads is constituted by different human communities and their hydrologic interconnections. Each community is characterized by its spatial position, population size, water resources availability and hygiene conditions. By implementing a spatially explicit cholera model we seek the effects on epidemic dynamics of: i) the topology and metrics of the pathogens pathways that connect different communities; ii) the spatial distribution of the population size; and iii) the spatial distributions and quality of surface water resources and public health conditions, and how they vary with population size. The model has been applied to study the space-time evolution of a well documented cholera epidemic occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The epidemic lasted for two years and involved about 140,000 confirmed cholera cases. The model does well in reproducing the distribution of the cholera cases during the two outbreaks as well as their spatial spreading. We further extend the model by deriving the speed of propagation of traveling fronts in the case of uniformly distributed systems for different topologies: one and two dimensional lattices and river networks. The derivation of the spreading celerity proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. The conditions are sought by comparison between spreading and disease timescales. Consider a cholera epidemic that starts from a point and spreads throughout a finite size system, it is possible to identify two different timescales: i

Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birrell, Paul J.; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; Pebody, Richard G.; Gay, Nigel J.; de Angelis, Daniela

2016-07-01

Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.

Definition of spatial patterns of bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) outbreak spreading in Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), using GIS

Treesearch

Rastislav Jakus; Wojciech Grodzki; Marek Jezik; Marcin Jachym

2003-01-01

The spread of bark beetle outbreaks in the Tatra Mountains was explored by using both terrestrial and remote sensing techniques. Both approaches have proven to be useful for studying spatial patterns of bark beetle population dynamics. The terrestrial methods were applied on existing forestry databases. Vegetation change analysis (image differentiation), digital...

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of air quality index in Xuchang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhenghua; Tian, Zhihui

2018-01-01

In recent years, the problem of air pollution becomes more and more serious. Based on the geographic and seasonal climatic characteristics of Xuchang City, this paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of air quality index. The results show that: from the time point of view, air quality index shows seasonal difference. Air quality index is highest in winter and is lowest in summer. From the space point of view, there are differences between the north and the south to a certain extent. Changge City, Yuzhou city and central Xuchang county is higher than the southeast of Xiangcheng county and Yanling county. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of air quality index in Xuchang are influenced by natural factors and human activities, and the economic development and population are the important factors affecting the urban air quality.

A GIS-based spatial correlation analysis for ambient air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations in Jinan, China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenqiao; Ying, Yangyang; Wu, Quanyuan; Zhang, Haiping; Ma, Dedong; Xiao, Wei

2015-03-01

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are important events during disease procedure. AECOPD have negative effect on patients' quality of life, symptoms and lung function, and result in high socioeconomic costs. Though previous studies have demonstrated the significant association between outdoor air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations, little is known about the spatial relationship utilized a spatial analyzing technique- Geographical Information System (GIS). Using GIS to investigate the spatial association between ambient air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations in Jinan City, 2009. 414 AECOPD hospitalization cases in Jinan, 2009 were enrolled in our analysis. Monthly concentrations of five monitored air pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, O3, CO) during January 2009-December 2009 were provided by Environmental Protection Agency of Shandong Province. Each individual was geocoded in ArcGIS10.0 software. The spatial distribution of five pollutants and the temporal-spatial specific air pollutants exposure level for each individual was estimated by ordinary Kriging model. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) was employed to explore the spatial association between ambient air pollutants and AECOPD hospitalizations. A generalized linear model (GLM) using a Poisson distribution with log-link function was used to construct a core model. At residence, concentrations of SO2, PM10, NO2, CO, O3 and AECOPD hospitalization cases showed statistical significant spatially clustered. The Z-score of SO2, PM10, CO, O3, NO2 at residence is 15.88, 13.93, 12.60, 4.02, 2.44 respectively, while at workplace, concentrations of PM10, SO2, O3, CO and AECOPD hospitalization cases showed statistical significant spatially clustered. The Z-score of PM10, SO2, O3, CO at workplace is 11.39, 8.07, 6.10, and 5.08 respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders in the model, only the PM10 concentrations at workplace showed statistical significance, with a 10 μg/m(3) increase of PM10 at

The Role of Auxiliary Variables in Deterministic and Deterministic-Stochastic Spatial Models of Air Temperature in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2017-02-01

Our study examines the role of auxiliary variables in the process of spatial modelling and mapping of climatological elements, with air temperature in Poland used as an example. The multivariable algorithms are the most frequently applied for spatialization of air temperature, and their results in many studies are proved to be better in comparison to those obtained by various one-dimensional techniques. In most of the previous studies, two main strategies were used to perform multidimensional spatial interpolation of air temperature. First, it was accepted that all variables significantly correlated with air temperature should be incorporated into the model. Second, it was assumed that the more spatial variation of air temperature was deterministically explained, the better was the quality of spatial interpolation. The main goal of the paper was to examine both above-mentioned assumptions. The analysis was performed using data from 250 meteorological stations and for 69 air temperature cases aggregated on different levels: from daily means to 10-year annual mean. Two cases were considered for detailed analysis. The set of potential auxiliary variables covered 11 environmental predictors of air temperature. Another purpose of the study was to compare the results of interpolation given by various multivariable methods using the same set of explanatory variables. Two regression models: multiple linear (MLR) and geographically weighted (GWR) method, as well as their extensions to the regression-kriging form, MLRK and GWRK, respectively, were examined. Stepwise regression was used to select variables for the individual models and the cross-validation method was used to validate the results with a special attention paid to statistically significant improvement of the model using the mean absolute error (MAE) criterion. The main results of this study led to rejection of both assumptions considered. Usually, including more than two or three of the most significantly

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

PubMed

Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

Spatial and temporal air quality pattern recognition using environmetric techniques: a case study in Malaysia.

PubMed

Syed Abdul Mutalib, Sharifah Norsukhairin; Juahir, Hafizan; Azid, Azman; Mohd Sharif, Sharifah; Latif, Mohd Talib; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Zain, Sharifuddin M; Dominick, Doreena

2013-09-01

The objective of this study is to identify spatial and temporal patterns in the air quality at three selected Malaysian air monitoring stations based on an eleven-year database (January 2000-December 2010). Four statistical methods, Discriminant Analysis (DA), Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), were selected to analyze the datasets of five air quality parameters, namely: SO2, NO2, O3, CO and particulate matter with a diameter size of below 10 μm (PM10). The three selected air monitoring stations share the characteristic of being located in highly urbanized areas and are surrounded by a number of industries. The DA results show that spatial characterizations allow successful discrimination between the three stations, while HACA shows the temporal pattern from the monthly and yearly factor analysis which correlates with severe haze episodes that have happened in this country at certain periods of time. The PCA results show that the major source of air pollution is mostly due to the combustion of fossil fuel in motor vehicles and industrial activities. The spatial pattern recognition (S-ANN) results show a better prediction performance in discriminating between the regions, with an excellent percentage of correct classification compared to DA. This study presents the necessity and usefulness of environmetric techniques for the interpretation of large datasets aiming to obtain better information about air quality patterns based on spatial and temporal characterizations at the selected air monitoring stations.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Endreny, Theodore A.; Nowak, David J.

2013-09-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat storage based on semiempirical functions and generates spatially distributed estimates based on inputs of topography, land cover, and the weather data measured at a reference site. The model assumes that for all grids under the same mesoscale climate, grid air temperature and humidity are modified by local variation in absorbed solar radiation and the partitioning of sensible and latent heat. The model uses a reference grid site for time series meteorological data and the air temperature and humidity of any other grid can be obtained by solving the heat flux network equations. PASATH was coupled with the USDA iTree-Hydro water balance model to obtain evapotranspiration terms and run from 20 to 29 August 2010 at a 360 m by 360 m grid scale and hourly time step across a 285 km2 watershed including the urban area of Syracuse, NY. PASATH predictions were tested at nine urban weather stations representing variability in urban topography and land cover. The PASATH model predictive efficiency R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.99 for air temperature and 0.77 to 0.97 for dew point temperature. PASATH is expected to have broad applications on environmental and ecological models.

A spatial analysis of Phytophthora ramorum symptom spread using second-order point pattern and GIS-based analyses

Treesearch

Mark Spencer; Kevin O' Hara

2006-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum is a major source of tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) mortality in the tanoak/redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests of central California. This study presents a spatial analysis of the spread of the disease using second-order point pattern and GIS analyses. Our data set includes four plots...

Spatial Resolution Requirements for Traffic-Related Air Pollutant Exposure Evaluations

PubMed Central

Batterman, Stuart; Chambliss, Sarah; Isakov, Vlad

2014-01-01

Vehicle emissions represent one of the most important air pollution sources in most urban areas, and elevated concentrations of pollutants found near major roads have been associated with many adverse health impacts. To understand these impacts, exposure estimates should reflect the spatial and temporal patterns observed for traffic-related air pollutants. This paper evaluates the spatial resolution and zonal systems required to estimate accurately intraurban and near-road exposures of traffic-related air pollutants. The analyses use the detailed information assembled for a large (800 km2) area centered on Detroit, Michigan, USA. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) due to vehicle emissions were estimated using hourly traffic volumes and speeds on 9,700 links representing all but minor roads in the city, the MOVES2010 emission model, the RLINE dispersion model, local meteorological data, a temporal resolution of 1 hr, and spatial resolution as low as 10 m. Model estimates were joined with the corresponding shape files to estimate residential exposures for 700,000 individuals at property parcel, census block, census tract, and ZIP code levels. We evaluate joining methods, the spatial resolution needed to meet specific error criteria, and the extent of exposure misclassification. To portray traffic-related air pollutant exposure, raster or inverse distance-weighted interpolations are superior to nearest neighbor approaches, and interpolations between receptors and points of interest should not exceed about 40 m near major roads, and 100 m at larger distances. For census tracts and ZIP codes, average exposures are overestimated since few individuals live very near major roads, the range of concentrations is compressed, most exposures are misclassified, and high concentrations near roads are entirely omitted. While smaller zones improve performance considerably, even block-level data can misclassify many individuals. To estimate exposures and impacts of traffic

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004-2012.

PubMed

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10×10km satellite-based PM 2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM 2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in-migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

General Mechanism of Morphology Transition and Spreading Area-dependent Phase Diagram of Block Copolymer Self-assembly at the Air/Water Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dong Hyup; Kim, So Youn

Block copolymers (BCPs) can be self-assembled forming periodic nanostructures, which have been employed in many applications. While general agreements exist for the phase diagrams of BCP self-assembly in bulk or thin films, a fundamental understanding of BCP structures at the air/water interface still remain elusive. The current study explains morphology transition of BCPs with relative fraction of each block at the air/water interface: block fraction is the only parameter to control the morphology. In this study, we show morphology transitions from spherical to cylindrical and planar structures with neat polystyrene-b-poly(2-vinylpyridine) (PS-b-P2VP) via reducing the spreading area of BCP solution at the air/water interface. For example, PS-b-P2VP in a fixed block fraction known to form only spheres can experience sphere to cylinder or lamellar transitions depending on the spreading area at the air/water interface. Suggesting a new parameter to control the interfacial assembly of BCPs, a complete phase diagram is drawn with two paramters: relative block fraction and spreading area. We also explain the morphology transition with the combinational description of dewetting mechanism and spring effect of hydrophilic block.

Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Toxic Air Contaminants in Multiple Ecosystem Indicators in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanus, L.; Simonich, S. L.; Rocchio, J.; Flanagan, C.

2013-12-01

Toxic air contaminants originating from agricultural areas of the Central Valley in California threaten vulnerable sensitive receptors including surface water, vegetation, snow, sediments, fish, and amphibians in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region. The spatial distribution of toxic air contaminants in different ecosystem indicators depends on variation in atmospheric concentrations and deposition, and variation in air toxics accumulation in ecosystems. The spatial distribution of organic air toxics and mercury at over 330 unique sampling locations and sample types over two decades (1990-2009) in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region were compiled and maps were developed to further understand spatial patterns and linkages between air toxics deposition and ecological effects. Potential ecosystem impacts in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region include bioaccumulation of air toxics in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, reproductive disruption, and immune suppression. The most sensitive ecological end points in the region that are affected by bioaccumulation of toxic air contaminants are fish. Mercury was detected in all fish and approximately 6% exceeded human consumption thresholds. Organic air toxics were also detected in fish yielding variable spatial patterns. For amphibians, which are sensitive to pesticide exposure and potential immune suppression, increasing trends in current and historic use pesticides are observed from north to south across the region. In other indicators, such as vegetation, pesticide concentrations in lichen increase with increasing elevation. Current and historic use pesticides and mercury were also observed in snowpack at high elevations in the study area. This study shows spatial patterns in toxic air contaminants, evaluates associated risks to sensitive receptors, and identifies data gaps. Future research on atmospheric modeling and information on sources is needed in order to predict which ecosystems are the

China’s Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-01-01

Background: Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China’s economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods: Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM2.5. Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results: It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions: Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables. PMID:28927016

PDMS spreading morphological patterns on substrates of different hydrophilicity in air vacuum and water.

PubMed

Zbik, Marek S; Frost, Ray L

2010-04-15

In paper has been to investigate the morphological patterns and kinetics of PDMS spreading on silicon wafer using combination of techniques like ellipsometry, atomic force microscope (AFM), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and optical microscopy. A macroscopic silicone oil drops as well as PDMS water based emulsions were studied after deposition on a flat surface of silicon wafer in air, water and vacuum. Our own measurements using an imaging ellipsometer, which also clearly shows the presence of a precursor film. The diffusion constant of this film, measured with a 60,000 cS PDMS sample spreading on a hydrophilic silicon wafer is D(f)=1.4x10(-11) m(2)/s. Regardless of their size, density and method of deposition, droplets on both types of wafer (hydrophilic and hydrophobic) flatten out over a period of many hours, up to 3 days. During this process neighbouring droplets may coalesce, but there is strong evidence that some of the PDMS from the droplets migrates into a thin, continuous film that covers the surface in between droplets. The thin film appears to be ubiquitous if there has been any deposition of PDMS. However, this statement needs further verification. One question is whether the film forms immediately after forced drying, or whether in some or all cases it only forms by spreading from isolated droplets as they slowly flatten out. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research on the optimization of air quality monitoring station layout based on spatial grid statistical analysis method.

PubMed

Li, Tianxin; Zhou, Xing Chen; Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion; Difei, An

2018-05-01

In recent years, with the significant increase in urban development, it has become necessary to optimize the current air monitoring stations to reflect the quality of air in the environment. Highlighting the spatial representation of some air monitoring stations using Beijing's regional air monitoring station data from 2012 to 2014, the monthly mean particulate matter concentration (PM10) in the region was calculated and through the IDW interpolation method and spatial grid statistical method using GIS, the spatial distribution of PM10 concentration in the whole region was deduced. The spatial distribution variation of districts in Beijing using the gridding model was performed, and through the 3-year spatial analysis, PM10 concentration data including the variation and spatial overlay (1.5 km × 1.5 km cell resolution grid), the spatial distribution result obtained showed that the total PM10 concentration frequency variation exceeded the standard. It is very important to optimize the layout of the existing air monitoring stations by combining the concentration distribution of air pollutants with the spatial region using GIS.

Spatial and Temporal Spread of Acute Viral Respiratory Infections in Young Children Living in High-Altitude Rural Communities: A Prospective Household-Based Study

PubMed Central

Cherry, Charlotte Buehler; Griffin, Marie R.; Edwards, Kathryn M.; Williams, John V.; Gil, Ana I.; Verastegui, Hector; Lanata, Claudio F.; Grijalva, Carlos G

2016-01-01

Background Few studies have described patterns of transmission of viral acute respiratory infections (ARI) in children in developing countries. We examined the spatial and temporal spread of viral ARI among young children in rural Peruvian highland communities. Previous work has described intense social interactions in those communities, which could influence the transmission of viral infections. Methods We enrolled and followed children <3 years of age for detection of ARI during the 2009–2011 respiratory seasons in a rural setting with relatively wide geographic dispersion of households and communities. Viruses detected included influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (MPV), and parainfluenza 2 and 3 viruses (PIV2; PIV3). We used geospatial analyses to identify specific viral infection hot spots with high ARI incidence. We also explored the local spread of ARI from index cases using standard deviational ellipses. Results Geospatial analyses revealed hot spots of high ARI incidence around the index cases of influenza outbreaks and RSV outbreak in 2010. Although PIV3 in 2009 and PIV2 in 2010 showed distinct spatial hot spots, clustering was not in proximity to their respective index cases. No significant aggregation around index cases was noted for other viruses. Standard deviational ellipse analyses suggested that influenza B and RSV in 2010, and MPV in 2011 spread temporally in alignment with the major road network. Conclusions Despite the geographic dispersion of communities in this rural setting, we observed a rapid spread of viral ARI among young children. Influenza strains and RSV in 2010 had distinctive outbreaks arising from their index cases. PMID:27404599

The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Air Pollution in China from 2001–2014

PubMed Central

Bao, Junzhe; Yang, Xiping; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Wang, Zhenkun; Yu, Chuanhua; Li, Xudong

2015-01-01

To provide some useful information about the control of air pollution in China, we studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of air pollution in China from 2001–2014. First, we drew several line charts and histograms of the Air Pollution Index (API) and Air Quality Index (AQI) of 31 capital cities and municipalities to research the distribution across different times and cities; then, we researched the spatial clustering of API and AQI; finally, we examined the shift of the gravity center of API and AQI in different years and months. The API values had a decreasing trend: the high values had a clustering trend in some northern cities, and the low values had a clustering trend in some southern cities. The AQI values were relatively low, from 15:00–17:00 during the day. The gravity center of API had a trend of moving south from 2001–2003, then fluctuated in an unordered pattern and moved north in the winter. The AQI gravity center did not have a regular shift during different months. In conclusion, the government should take action to mitigate air pollution in some typical cities, as well as air pollution during the winter. PMID:26694427

Visual attention spreads broadly but selects information locally.

PubMed

Shioiri, Satoshi; Honjyo, Hajime; Kashiwase, Yoshiyuki; Matsumiya, Kazumichi; Kuriki, Ichiro

2016-10-19

Visual attention spreads over a range around the focus as the spotlight metaphor describes. Spatial spread of attentional enhancement and local selection/inhibition are crucial factors determining the profile of the spatial attention. Enhancement and ignorance/suppression are opposite effects of attention, and appeared to be mutually exclusive. Yet, no unified view of the factors has been provided despite their necessity for understanding the functions of spatial attention. This report provides electroencephalographic and behavioral evidence for the attentional spread at an early stage and selection/inhibition at a later stage of visual processing. Steady state visual evoked potential showed broad spatial tuning whereas the P3 component of the event related potential showed local selection or inhibition of the adjacent areas. Based on these results, we propose a two-stage model of spatial attention with broad spread at an early stage and local selection at a later stage.

Columnar phase of pyramidic amphiphiles spread at the air-water interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Abed, A.; Muller, P.; Peretti, P.; Gallet, F.; Billard, J.

1993-06-01

Two compounds, forming thermotropic liquid-crystalline phases in the bulk, were spread at the air-water interface. For both compounds, the surface pressure versus molecular area diagrams exhibit a large domain of molecular areas where the surface pressure of the film is quasi-constant. This plateau region of the isotherms corresponds to a transition from a monolayer in a liquid-expanded phase to a metastable condensed monolayer in which the molecules may adopt an “edge-on” arrangement. In this arrangement, the base of the pyramidic core is normal to the air-water interface. The film was also observed by means of fluorescence and polarizing microscopy. These techniques allowed us to show the formation of anisotropic slowly growing multilayered domains from the “edge-on” monolayer. An original method, based on the light reflectivity of the domains, was developed to measure their thickness and their optical anisotropy. The results show that these domains are formed by an arrangement of the molecules in rectilinear columns for one compound and in spiral columns for the other compound.

Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belik, Vitaly; Geisel, Theo; Brockmann, Dirk

2011-08-01

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; BiDr, Jun; KinneyDr, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10 × 10 km satellite-based PM2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing–Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in–migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. PMID:27745948

Spatial evolution of laser filaments in turbulent air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Tao; Zhu, Shiping; Zhou, Shengling; He, Yan

2018-04-01

In this study, the spatial evolution properties of laser filament clusters in turbulent air were evaluated using numerical simulations. Various statistical parameters were calculated, such as the percolation probability, filling factor, and average cluster size. The results indicate that turbulence-induced multi-filamentation can be described as a new phase transition universality class. In addition, during this process, the relationship between the average cluster size and filling factor could be fit by a power function. Our results are valuable for applications involving filamentation that can be influenced by the geometrical features of multiple filaments.

Quantification and spread of Pneumocystis jirovecii in the surrounding air of patients with Pneumocystis pneumonia.

PubMed

Choukri, Firas; Menotti, Jean; Sarfati, Claudine; Lucet, Jean-Christophe; Nevez, Gilles; Garin, Yves J F; Derouin, Francis; Totet, Anne

2010-08-01

Airborne transmission of Pneumocystis has been demonstrated in animal models and is highly probable in humans. However, information concerning burdens of Pneumocystis jirovecii (human-derived Pneumocystis) in exhaled air from infected patients is lacking. Our objective is to evaluate P. jirovecii air diffusion in patients with Pneumocystis pneumonia. Patients admitted with Pneumocystis pneumonia were prospectively enrolled from 9 January 2008 to 21 July 2009. Air samples (1.5 m(3)) were collected on liquid medium with a commercial sampler at 1-, 3-, 5-, and 8-m distances from patients' heads. Air control samples were collected away from Pneumocystis pneumonia patient wards and outdoors. Samples were examined for P. jirovecii detection and quantification using a real-time polymerase chain reaction assay targeting the mitochondrial large subunit ribosomal RNA gene. Forty patients were diagnosed as having Pneumocystis pneumonia. Air sampling was performed in the environment for 19 of them. At a 1-m distance from patients' heads, P. jirovecii DNA was detected in 15 (79.8%) of 19 patients, with fungal burdens ranging from 7.5 X 10³ to 4.5 X 10⁶ gene copies/m(3). These levels decreased with distance from the patients (P < .002). Nevertheless, 4 (33.3%) of the 12 samples taken at 8 m, in the corridor adjacent to their room, were still positive. Forty control samples were collected and remained negative. This study provides the first quantitative data on the spread of P. jirovecii in exhaled air from infected patients. It sustains the risk of P. jirovecii direct transmission in close contact with patients with Pneumocystis pneumonia and leads the way for initiating a quantitative risk assessment for airborne transmission of P. jirovecii.

Assessment of Near-Source Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle – an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of particulate and gaseous pollutants – was used to map air pollution levels near the Port of Charleston in South Carolina. High-resolution monitoring was performed along driving routes near several port terminals and rail yard facilities, recording geospatial coordinates and concentrations of pollutants including black carbon, size-resolved particle count ranging from ultrafine to coarse (6 nm to 20 um), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Additionally, a portable meteorological station was used to characterize local conditions. The primary objective of this work is to characterize the impact of port facilities on local scale air quality. It is found that elevated concentration measurements of Black Carbon and PM correlate to periods of increased port activity and a significant elevation in concentration is observed downwind of ports. However, limitations in study design prevent a more complete analysis of the port effect. As such, we discuss the ways in which this study is limited and how future work could be improved. Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollut

Spread of plague among black-tailed prairie dogs is associated with colony spatial characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, T.L.; Cully, J.F.; Collinge, S.K.; Ray, C.; Frey, C.M.; Sandercock, B.K.

2011-01-01

Sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis) is an exotic pathogen that is highly virulent in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and causes widespread colony losses and individual mortality rates >95%. We investigated colony spatial characteristics that may influence inter-colony transmission of plague at 3 prairie dog colony complexes in the Great Plains. The 4 spatial characteristics we considered include: colony size, Euclidean distance to nearest neighboring colony, colony proximity index, and distance to nearest drainage (dispersal) corridor. We used multi-state mark-recapture models to determine the relationship between these colony characteristics and probability of plague transmission among prairie dog colonies. Annual mapping of colonies and mark-recapture analyses of disease dynamics in natural colonies led to 4 main results: 1) plague outbreaks exhibited high spatial and temporal variation, 2) the site of initiation of epizootic plague may have substantially influenced the subsequent inter-colony spread of plague, 3) the long-term effect of plague on individual colonies differed among sites because of how individuals and colonies were distributed, and 4) colony spatial characteristics were related to the probability of infection at all sites although the relative importance and direction of relationships varied among sites. Our findings suggest that conventional prairie dog conservation management strategies, including promoting large, highly connected colonies, may need to be altered in the presence of plague. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Applying fire spread simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar

Treesearch

Tonja Opperman; Jim Gould; Mark Finney; Cordy Tymstra

2006-01-01

There is currently no spatial wildfire spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fire simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fire spread applications for common use in both...

Risk of global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) via the air transport network.

PubMed

Gardner, Lauren M; Chughtai, Abrar A; MacIntyre, C Raina

2016-06-01

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012 and has since spread to 26 countries. All cases reported so far have either been in the Middle East or linked to the region through passenger air travel, with the largest outbreak outside KSA occurring in South Korea. Further international spread is likely due to the high travel volumes of global travel, as well as the occurrence of large annual mass gathering such as the Haj and Umrah pilgrimages that take place in the region. In this study, a transport network modelling framework was used to quantify the risk of MERS-CoV spreading internationally via air travellers. All regions connected to MERS-CoV affected countries via air travel are considered, and the countries at highest risk of travel-related importations of MERS-CoV were identified, ranked and compared with actual spread of MERS cases. The model identifies all countries that have previously reported a travel acquired case to be in the top 50 at-risk countries. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the highest risk countries which have yet to report a case, and should be prepared for the possibility of (pilgrims and general) travellers returning infected with MERS-CoV. In addition, the UK, Egypt, Turkey and the USA are at risk of more cases. We have demonstrated a risk-analysis approach, using travel patterns, to prioritize countries at highest risk for MERS-CoV importations. In order to prevent global outbreaks such as the one seen in South Korea, it is critical for high-risk countries to be prepared and have appropriate screening and triage protocols in place to identify travel-related cases of MERS-CoV. The results from the model can be used by countries to prioritize their airport and hospital screening and triage protocols. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Flame spread across liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D.; Miller, Fletcher; Schiller, David; Sirignano, William

1995-01-01

Recent reviews of our understanding of flame spread across liquids show that there are many unresolved issues regarding the phenomenology and causal mechanisms affecting ignition susceptibility, flame spread characteristics, and flame spread rates. One area of discrepancy is the effect of buoyancy in both the uniform and pulsating spread regimes. The approach we have taken to resolving the importance of buoyancy for these flames is: (1) normal gravity (1g) and microgravity (micro g) experiments; and (2) numerical modeling at different gravitational levels. Of special interest to this work, as discussed at the previous workshop, is the determination of whether, and under what conditions, pulsating spread occurs in micro g. Microgravity offers a unique ability to modify and control the gas-phase flow pattern by utilizing a forced air flow over the pool surface.

Evaluating and Mapping of Spatial Air Ion Quality Patterns in a Residential Garden Using a Geostatistic Method

PubMed Central

Wu, Chen-Fa; Lai, Chun-Hsien; Chu, Hone-Jay; Lin, Wen-Huang

2011-01-01

Negative air ions (NAI) produce biochemical reactions that increase the levels of the mood chemical serotonin in the environment. Moreover, they benefit both the psychological well being and the human body’s physiological condition. The aim of this research was to estimate and measure the spatial distributions of negative and positive air ions in a residential garden in central Taiwan. Negative and positive air ions were measured at thirty monitoring locations in the study garden from July 2009 to June 2010. Moreover, Kriging was applied to estimate the spatial distribution of negative and positive air ions, as well as the air ion index in the study area. The measurement results showed that the numbers of NAI and PAI differed greatly during the four seasons, the highest and the lowest negative and positive air ion concentrations were found in the summer and winter, respectively. Moreover, temperature was positively affected negative air ions concentration. No matter what temperature is, the ranges of variogram in NAI/PAI were similar during four seasons. It indicated that spatial patterns of NAI/PAI were independent of the seasons and depended on garden elements and configuration, thus the NAP/PAI was a good estimate of the air quality regarding air ions. Kriging maps depicted that the highest negative and positive air ion concentration was next to the waterfall, whereas the lowest air ions areas were next to the exits of the garden. The results reveal that waterscapes are a source of negative and positive air ions, and that plants and green space are a minor source of negative air ions in the study garden. Moreover, temperature and humidity are positively and negatively affected negative air ions concentration, respectively. The proposed monitoring and mapping approach provides a way to effectively assess the patterns of negative and positive air ions in future landscape design projects. PMID:21776231

Evaluating and mapping of spatial air ion quality patterns in a residential garden using a geostatistic method.

PubMed

Wu, Chen-Fa; Lai, Chun-Hsien; Chu, Hone-Jay; Lin, Wen-Huang

2011-06-01

Negative air ions (NAI) produce biochemical reactions that increase the levels of the mood chemical serotonin in the environment. Moreover, they benefit both the psychological well being and the human body's physiological condition. The aim of this research was to estimate and measure the spatial distributions of negative and positive air ions in a residential garden in central Taiwan. Negative and positive air ions were measured at thirty monitoring locations in the study garden from July 2009 to June 2010. Moreover, Kriging was applied to estimate the spatial distribution of negative and positive air ions, as well as the air ion index in the study area. The measurement results showed that the numbers of NAI and PAI differed greatly during the four seasons, the highest and the lowest negative and positive air ion concentrations were found in the summer and winter, respectively. Moreover, temperature was positively affected negative air ions concentration. No matter what temperature is, the ranges of variogram in NAI/PAI were similar during four seasons. It indicated that spatial patterns of NAI/PAI were independent of the seasons and depended on garden elements and configuration, thus the NAP/PAI was a good estimate of the air quality regarding air ions. Kriging maps depicted that the highest negative and positive air ion concentration was next to the waterfall, whereas the lowest air ions areas were next to the exits of the garden. The results reveal that waterscapes are a source of negative and positive air ions, and that plants and green space are a minor source of negative air ions in the study garden. Moreover, temperature and humidity are positively and negatively affected negative air ions concentration, respectively. The proposed monitoring and mapping approach provides a way to effectively assess the patterns of negative and positive air ions in future landscape design projects.

Beam-width spreading of vortex beams in free space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwei; Li, Jinhong; Duan, Meiling

2018-01-01

Based on the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the definition of second-order moments of the Wigner distribution function, the analytical expression for the beam-width spreading of Gaussian Schell-model (GSM) vortex beams in free space are derived, and used to study the influence of beam parameters on the beam-width spreading of GSM vortex beams. With the increment of the propagation distance, the beam-width spreading of GSM vortex beams will increase; the bigger the topological charge, spatial correlation length, wavelength and waist width are, the smaller the beam-width spreading is.

Race, deprivation, and immigrant isolation: The spatial demography of air-toxic clusters in the continental United States.

PubMed

Liévanos, Raoul S

2015-11-01

This article contributes to environmental inequality outcomes research on the spatial and demographic factors associated with cumulative air-toxic health risks at multiple geographic scales across the United States. It employs a rigorous spatial cluster analysis of census tract-level 2005 estimated lifetime cancer risk (LCR) of ambient air-toxic emissions from stationary (e.g., facility) and mobile (e.g., vehicular) sources to locate spatial clusters of air-toxic LCR risk in the continental United States. It then tests intersectional environmental inequality hypotheses on the predictors of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters with tract-level principal component factor measures of economic deprivation by race and immigrant status. Logistic regression analyses show that net of controls, isolated Latino immigrant-economic deprivation is the strongest positive demographic predictor of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters, followed by black-economic deprivation and isolated Asian/Pacific Islander immigrant-economic deprivation. Findings suggest scholarly and practical implications for future research, advocacy, and policy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spreading speeds for plant populations in landscapes with low environmental variation.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark A; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Bullock, James M; White, Steven M

2014-12-21

Characterising the spread of biological populations is crucial in responding to both biological invasions and the shifting of habitat under climate change. Spreading speeds can be studied through mathematical models such as the discrete-time integro-difference equation (IDE) framework. The usual approach in implementing IDE models has been to ignore spatial variation in the demographic and dispersal parameters and to assume that these are spatially homogeneous. On the other hand, real landscapes are rarely spatially uniform with environmental variation being very important in determining biological spread. This raises the question of under what circumstances spatial structure need not be modelled explicitly. Recent work has shown that spatial variation can be ignored for the specific case where the scale of landscape variation is much smaller than the spreading population׳s dispersal scale. We consider more general types of landscape, where the spatial scales of environmental variation are arbitrarily large, but the maximum change in environmental parameters is relatively small. We find that the difference between the wave-speeds of populations spreading in a spatially structured periodic landscape and its homogenisation is, in general, proportional to ϵ(2), where ϵ governs the degree of environmental variation. For stochastically generated landscapes we numerically demonstrate that the error decays faster than ϵ. In both cases, this means that for sufficiently small ϵ, the homogeneous approximation is better than might be expected. Hence, in many situations, the precise details of the landscape can be ignored in favour of spatially homogeneous parameters. This means that field ecologists can use the homogeneous IDE as a relatively simple modelling tool--in terms of both measuring parameter values and doing the modelling itself. However, as ϵ increases, this homogeneous approximation loses its accuracy. The change in wave-speed due to the extrinsic (landscape

Deriving spatial trends of air pollution at a neighborhood-scale through mobile monitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Measuring air pollution in real-time using an instrumented vehicle platform has been an emerging strategy to resolve air pollution trends at a very fine spatial scale (10s of meters). Achieving second-by-second data representative of urban air quality trends requires a...

Spatial heterogeneity and air pollution removal by an urban forest

Treesearch

Francisco J. Escobedo; David J. Nowak

2009-01-01

Estimates of air pollution removal by the urban forest have mostly been based on mean values of forest structure variables for an entire city. However, the urban forest is not uniformly distributed across a city because of biophysical and social factors. Consequently, air pollution removal function by urban vegetation should vary because of this spatial heterogeneity....

Spatial variation in environmental noise and air pollution in New York City.

PubMed

Kheirbek, Iyad; Ito, Kazuhiko; Neitzel, Richard; Kim, Jung; Johnson, Sarah; Ross, Zev; Eisl, Holger; Matte, Thomas

2014-06-01

Exposure to environmental noise from traffic is common in urban areas and has been linked to increased risks of adverse health effects including cardiovascular disease. Because traffic sources also produce air pollutants that increase the risk of cardiovascular morbidity, associations between traffic exposures and health outcomes may involve confounding and/or synergisms between air pollution and noise. While prior studies have characterized intraurban spatial variation in air pollution in New York City (NYC), limited data exists on the levels and spatial variation in noise levels. We measured 1-week equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (Leq) at 56 sites during the fall of 2012 across NYC locations with varying traffic intensity and building density that are routinely monitored for combustion-related air pollutants. We evaluated correlations among several noise metrics used to characterize noise exposures, including Leq during different time periods (night, day, weekday, weekend), Ldn (day-night noise), and measures of intermittent noise defined as the ratio of peak levels to median and background levels. We also examined correlations between sound pressure levels and co-located simultaneous measures of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and black carbon (BC) as well as estimates of traffic and building density around the monitoring sites. Noise levels varied widely across the 56 monitoring sites; 1-week Leq varied by 21.6 dBA (range 59.1-80.7 dBA) with the highest levels observed during the weekday, daytime hours. Indices of average noise were well correlated with each other (r > 0.83), while indices of intermittent noise were not well correlated with average noise levels (r < 0.41). One-week Leq correlated well with NO, NO2, and EC levels (r = 0.61 to 0.68) and less so with PM2.5 levels (r = 0.45). We observed associations between 1-week noise levels and traffic intensity within 100 m of the monitoring sites (r = 0

Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.

PubMed

Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-01-01

In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

PubMed

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-06-01

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W. John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-01-01

Background The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Methods and Findings To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Conclusions Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks. PMID:16640458

Comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in an urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Annette; Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Geruschkat, Uta; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Kühlbach, Benjamin; Kusch, Thomas; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Umminger, Robin; Wolf, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Frequently spatial variations of air temperature of considerable magnitude occur within urban areas. They correspond to varying land use/land cover characteristics and vary with season, time of day and synoptic conditions. These temperature differences have an impact on human health and comfort directly by inducing thermal stress as well as indirectly by means of affecting air quality. Therefore, knowledge of the spatial patterns of air temperature in cities and the factors causing them is of great importance, e.g. for urban planners. A multitude of studies have shown statistical modelling to be a suitable tool for generating spatial air temperature patterns. This contribution presents a comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in the urban environment of Augsburg, Southern Germany. In Augsburg there exists a measurement network for air temperature and humidity currently comprising 48 stations in the city and its rural surroundings (corporately operated by the Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health and the Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg). Using different datasets for land surface characteristics (Open Street Map, Urban Atlas) area percentages of different types of land cover were calculated for quadratic buffer zones of different size (25, 50, 100, 250, 500 m) around the stations as well for source regions of advective air flow and used as predictors together with additional variables such as sky view factor, ground level and distance from the city centre. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest models for different situations taking into account season, time of day and weather condition were applied utilizing selected subsets of these predictors in order to model spatial distributions of mean hourly and daily air temperature deviations from a rural reference station. Furthermore, the different model setups were

Nonlinear Equatorial Spread F: Spatially Large Bubbles Resulting from Large Horizontal Scale Initial Perturbations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-06

Hk~ NAT;ONAL BUR[AUJ (1 STANDARDS 1%3-, $LEVE1 NR L Memomduum Report 4154 ILII Nonlinear Equatorial Spread F: Spatially Large Bubbles Resulting from...Washington, DC 20375 and 67-0883-0-0 _DNA qubtask S99OAXHC 41 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12 . REPORT DATE Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington...Perturbation A: n(yO) i-e 23 [CIDS ] 8 Ax <Jxj< 16Ax n(x,y,0) 1 1 x1 > 16 Ax n (y,O) ( 12 ) Perturbation B: n(%,y,0) 1 -e 3 cos ( (13) n 0 (y,) \\2xm 7

Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

2017-12-01

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA

Treesearch

Zachery A. Holden; Michael A. Crimmins; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell

2010-01-01

Accurate, fine spatial resolution predictions of surface air temperatures are critical for understanding many hydrologic and ecological processes. This study examines the spatial and temporal variability in nocturnal air temperatures across a mountainous region of Northern Idaho. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to a network of 70 Hobo temperature...

Effect of epidemic spreading on species coexistence in spatial rock-paper-scissors games.

PubMed

Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

2010-04-01

A fundamental question in nonlinear science and evolutionary biology is how epidemic spreading may affect coexistence. We address this question in the framework of mobile species under cyclic competitions by investigating the roles of both intra- and interspecies spreading. A surprising finding is that intraspecies infection can strongly promote coexistence while interspecies spreading cannot. These results are quantified and a theoretical paradigm based on nonlinear partial differential equations is derived to explain the numerical results.

Characterizing Intra-Urban Air Quality Gradients with a Spatially-Distributed Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, N.; Ellis, A.; Schurman, M. I.; Gu, P.; Li, H.; Snell, L.; Gu, J.; Subramanian, R.; Robinson, A. L.; Apte, J.; Presto, A. A.

2016-12-01

City-wide air pollution measurements have typically relied on regulatory or research monitoring sites with low spatial density to assess population-scale exposure. However, air pollutant concentrations exhibit significant spatial variability depending on local sources and features of the built environment, which may not be well captured by the existing monitoring regime. To better understand urban spatial and temporal pollution gradients at 1 km resolution, a network of 12 real-time air quality monitoring stations was deployed beginning July 2016 in Pittsburgh, PA. The stations were deployed at sites along an urban-rural transect and in urban locations with a range of traffic, restaurant, and tall building densities to examine the impact of various modifiable factors. Measurements from the stationary monitoring stations were further supported by mobile monitoring, which provided higher spatial resolution pollutant measurements on nearby roadways and enabled routine calibration checks. The stationary monitoring measurements comprise ultrafine particle number (Aerosol Dynamics "MAGIC" CPC), PM2.5 (Met One Neighborhood PM Monitor), black carbon (Met One BC 1050), and a new low-cost air quality monitor, the Real-time Affordable Multi-Pollutant (RAMP) sensor package for measuring CO, NO2, SO2, O3, CO2, temperature and relative humidity. High time-resolution (sub-minute) measurements across the distributed monitoring network enable insight into dynamic pollutant behaviour. Our preliminary findings show that our instruments are sensitive to PM2.5 gradients exceeding 2 micro-grams per cubic meter and ultrafine particle gradients exceeding 1000 particles per cubic centimeter. Additionally, we have developed rigorous calibration protocols to characterize the RAMP sensor response and drift, as well as multiple linear regression models to convert sensor response into pollutant concentrations that are comparable to reference instrumentation.

Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboush, Abdelrazig K.; Lin, ZhiGui; Zhang, MengYun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we study a simplified version of a West Nile virus model discussed by Lewis et al. [28], which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter $R_0 ^D$ for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by a ODE. The risk index $R_0^F (t)$ associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to system when the spreading occurs are considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.

Nonlinear diffusion and viral spread through the leaf of a plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Maureen P.; Waterhouse, Peter M.; Munoz-Lopez, María Jesús; Anderssen, Robert S.

2016-10-01

The spread of a virus through the leaf of a plant is both spatially and temporally causal in that the present status depends on the past and the spatial spread is compactly supported and progresses outwards. Such spatial spread is known to occur for certain nonlinear diffusion processes. The first compactly supported solution for nonlinear diffusion equations appears to be that of Pattle published in 1959. In that paper, no explanation is given as to how the solution was derived. Here, we show how the solution can be derived using Lie symmetry analysis. This lays a foundation for exploring the behavior of other choices for nonlinear diffusion and exploring the addition of reaction terms which do not eliminate the compactly supported structure. The implications associated with using the reaction-diffusion equation to model the spatial-temporal spread of a virus through the leaf of a plant are discussed.

Spatial interpolation of monthly mean air temperature data for Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskevich, Svetlana

2016-04-01

Temperature data with high spatial resolution are essential for appropriate and qualitative local characteristics analysis. Nowadays the surface observation station network in Latvia consists of 22 stations recording daily air temperature, thus in order to analyze very specific and local features in the spatial distribution of temperature values in the whole Latvia, a high quality spatial interpolation method is required. Until now inverse distance weighted interpolation was used for the interpolation of air temperature data at the meteorological and climatological service of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, and no additional topographical information was taken into account. This method made it almost impossible to reasonably assess the actual temperature gradient and distribution between the observation points. During this project a new interpolation method was applied and tested, considering auxiliary explanatory parameters. In order to spatially interpolate monthly mean temperature values, kriging with external drift was used over a grid of 1 km resolution, which contains parameters such as 5 km mean elevation, continentality, distance from the Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea, biggest lakes and rivers, population density. As the most appropriate of these parameters, based on a complex situation analysis, mean elevation and continentality was chosen. In order to validate interpolation results, several statistical indicators of the differences between predicted values and the values actually observed were used. Overall, the introduced model visually and statistically outperforms the previous interpolation method and provides a meteorologically reasonable result, taking into account factors that influence the spatial distribution of the monthly mean temperature.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

PubMed

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Spot Radiative Ignition and Subsequent Three Dimensional Flame Spread Over Thin Cellulose Fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Sandra L.; Kashiwagi, T.; Kikuchi, M.; Fujita, O.; Ito, K.

1999-01-01

Spontaneous radiative ignition and transition to flame spread over thin cellulose fuel samples was studied aboard the USMP-3 STS-75 Space Shuttle mission, and in three test series in the 10 second Japan Microgravity Center (JAMIC). A focused beam from a tungsten/halogen lamp was used to ignite the center of the fuel sample while an external air flow was varied from 0 to 10 cm/s. Non-piloted radiative ignition of the paper was found to occur more easily in microgravity than in normal gravity. Ignition of the sample was achieved under all conditions studied (shuttle cabin air, 21%-50% O2 in JAMIC), with transition to flame spread occurring for all but the lowest oxygen and flow conditions. While radiative ignition in a quiescent atmosphere was achieved, the flame quickly extinguished in air. The ignition delay time was proportional to the gas-phase mixing time, which is estimated using the inverse flow rate. The ignition delay was a much stronger function of flow at lower oxygen concentrations. After ignition, the flame initially spread only upstream, in a fan-shaped pattern. The fan angle increased with increasing external flow and oxygen concentration from zero angle (tunneling flame spread) at the limiting 0.5 cm/s external air flow, to 90 degrees (semicircular flame spread) for external flows at and above 5 cm/s, and higher oxygen concentrations. The fan angle was shown to be directly related to the limiting air flow velocity. Despite the convective heating from the upstream flame, the downstream flame was inhibited due to the 'oxygen shadow' of the upstream flame for the air flow conditions studied. Downstream flame spread rates in air, measured after upstream flame spread was complete and extinguished, were slower than upstream flame spread rates at the same flow. The quench regime for the transition to flame spread was skewed toward the downstream, due to the augmenting role of diffusion for opposed flow flame spread, versus the canceling effect of diffusion

Spatial analysis and land use regression of VOCs and NO(2) from school-based urban air monitoring in Detroit/Dearborn, USA.

PubMed

Mukerjee, Shaibal; Smith, Luther A; Johnson, Mary M; Neas, Lucas M; Stallings, Casson A

2009-08-01

Passive ambient air sampling for nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was conducted at 25 school and two compliance sites in Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan, USA during the summer of 2005. Geographic Information System (GIS) data were calculated at each of 116 schools. The 25 selected schools were monitored to assess and model intra-urban gradients of air pollutants to evaluate impact of traffic and urban emissions on pollutant levels. Schools were chosen to be statistically representative of urban land use variables such as distance to major roadways, traffic intensity around the schools, distance to nearest point sources, population density, and distance to nearest border crossing. Two approaches were used to investigate spatial variability. First, Kruskal-Wallis analyses and pairwise comparisons on data from the schools examined coarse spatial differences based on city section and distance from heavily trafficked roads. Secondly, spatial variation on a finer scale and as a response to multiple factors was evaluated through land use regression (LUR) models via multiple linear regression. For weeklong exposures, VOCs did not exhibit spatial variability by city section or distance from major roads; NO(2) was significantly elevated in a section dominated by traffic and industrial influence versus a residential section. Somewhat in contrast to coarse spatial analyses, LUR results revealed spatial gradients in NO(2) and selected VOCs across the area. The process used to select spatially representative sites for air sampling and the results of coarse and fine spatial variability of air pollutants provide insights that may guide future air quality studies in assessing intra-urban gradients.

Nucleation and Spread of an Invasive Allele

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-01

We analyze a prototypical discrete spatial model for the spread of an invasive allele when individuals compete preemptively for common limiting resources. Initially, the population is genetically monomorphic with the resident allele at high density. The invasive allele is introduced through rare, but recurrent, mutation. The mutant allele is the better competitor (has an individual-level advantage) but its spread is limited by the local availability of resources. We find that each successful introduction of the mutant leads to strong spatial clustering. Spatial patterns in simulation resemble nucleation and subsequent growth, articulately described by Avrami's law in sufficiently large systemsootnotetextG. Korniss and T. Caraco, J. Theor. Biol. (in press, 2004); http://www.rpi.edu/ korniss/Research/JTB04.pdf.

Comparative spatial spread overtime of Zucchini Yellow Mosaic Virus (ZYMV) and Watermelon Mosaic Virus (WMV) in fields of transgenic squash expressing the coat protein genes of ZYMV and WMV, and in fields of nontransgenic squash.

PubMed

Klas, Ferdinand E; Fuchs, Marc; Gonsalves, Dennis

2006-10-01

The spatial and temporal patterns of aphid-vectored spread of Zucchini Yellow Mosaic Virus (ZYMV) and Watermelon Mosaic Virus (WMV) were monitored over two consecutive years in plantings of nontransgenic and transgenic squash ZW-20H (commercial cv. Freedom II) and ZW-20B, both expressing the coat protein genes of ZYMV and WMV. All test plants were surrounded by nontransgenic plants that were mechanically inoculated with ZYMV or WMV, and served as primary virus source. Across all trials, none of the transgenic plants exhibited systemic symptoms upon infection by ZYMV and WMV but a few of them developed localized chlorotic dots and/or blotches, and had low mixed infection rates [4% (6 of 139) of ZW-20H and 9% (13 of 139) of ZW-20B], as shown by ELISA. Geostatistical analysis of ELISA positive transgenic plants indicated, (i) a lack of spatial relationship on spread of ZYMV and WMV for ZW-20H with flat omnidirectional experimental semivariograms that fitted poorly theoretical models, and (ii) some extent of spatial dependence on ZYMV spread for ZW-20B with a well structured experimental semivariogram that fitted poorly theoretical models during the first but not the second growing season. In contrast, a strong spatial dependence on spread of ZYMV and WMV was found for nontransgenic plants, which developed severe systemic symptoms, had prevalent mixed infection rates (62%, 86 of 139), and well-defined omnidirectional experimental semivariograms that fitted a spherical model. Geostatistical data were sustained by virus transmission experiments with Myzus persicae in screenhouses, showing that commercial transgenic squash ZW-20H alter the dynamics of ZYMV and WMV epidemics by preventing secondary plant-to-plant spread.

A novel principal component analysis for spatially misaligned multivariate air pollution data.

PubMed

Jandarov, Roman A; Sheppard, Lianne A; Sampson, Paul D; Szpiro, Adam A

2017-01-01

We propose novel methods for predictive (sparse) PCA with spatially misaligned data. These methods identify principal component loading vectors that explain as much variability in the observed data as possible, while also ensuring the corresponding principal component scores can be predicted accurately by means of spatial statistics at locations where air pollution measurements are not available. This will make it possible to identify important mixtures of air pollutants and to quantify their health effects in cohort studies, where currently available methods cannot be used. We demonstrate the utility of predictive (sparse) PCA in simulated data and apply the approach to annual averages of particulate matter speciation data from national Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory monitors.

Characteristics of selected elements of the air quality management system in urban areas in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sówka, Izabela; Kobus, Dominik; Chlebowska Styś, Anna; Zathey, Maciej

2017-11-01

Most of Europeans living in cities are exposed to concentrations of air pollutants in excess of the thresholds given in the WHO guidelines and EU legislation. Due to this fact, for the urban air quality systems, the mechanisms of proper information and warning of the inhabitants as well as legal, economic and spatial planning instruments should be improved. The analysis of Polish air quality management system and its' selected components (exemplary measures, information-spreading methods, spatial planning instruments) in four selected Polish cities (Wroclaw, Warsaw, Poznan and Cracow) indicated the need to develop effective solutions, among others, in terms of: emission requirements for combustion of fuels of power of up to 1 MW; admission of high emission fuels on the market; legal and coordination issues at the level of implementation of the area development policy and coordination of activities covering issues within the scope of the structure of planning documents including mainly: ambient air protection programs, spatial developments plans in communes and voivodeships, low emission economy plans, plans of sustainable development of public transport, plans of providing heat, electric power and gas fuels to communes, acts of regional parliaments, introducing limitations based on the Environmental Protection Act and strategies of voivodeship.

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

PubMed

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Effects of air polishing and an amino acid buffered hypochlorite solution to dentin surfaces and periodontal ligament cell survival, attachment, and spreading.

PubMed

Schmidlin, Patrick R; Fujioka-Kobayashi, Masako; Mueller, Heinz-Dieter; Sculean, Anton; Lussi, Adrian; Miron, Richard J

2017-06-01

The aim of this study is to examine morphological changes of dentin surfaces following air polishing or amino acid buffered hypochlorite solution application and to assess their influence on periodontal ligament (PDL) cell survival, attachment, and spreading to dentin discs in vitro. Bovine dentin discs were treated with either (i) Classic, (ii) Plus, or (iii) Perio powder (EMS). Furthermore, Perisolv® a hypochlorite solution buffered with various amino acids was investigated. Untreated dentin discs served as controls. Morphological changes to dentin discs were assessed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Human PDL cells were seeded onto the respectively treated discs, and samples were then investigated for PDL cell survival, attachment, and spreading using a live/dead assay, adhesion assay, and SEM imaging, respectively. Both control and Perisolv®-rinsed dentin discs demonstrated smooth surfaces at low and high magnifications. The Classic powders demonstrated the thickest coating followed by the Powder Plus. The Perio powder demonstrated marked alterations of dentin discs by revealing the potential to open dentinal tubules even before rinsing. Seeding of PDL cells demonstrated an almost 100 % survival rate on all samples demonstrating very high biocompatibility for all materials. Significantly higher PDL cell numbers were observed on samples treated with the Perio powder and the Perisolv® solution (approximately 40 % more cells; p < 0.05). SEM imaging revealed the potential for PDL cells to attach and spread on all surfaces. The results from the present study demonstrate that cell survival and spreading of PDL cells on root surfaces is possible following either air polishing or application with Perisolv®. Future in vitro and animal testing is necessary to further characterize the beneficial effects of either system in a clinical setting. The use of air polishing or application with Perisolv amino acid buffered hypochlorite solution was effective in

Adding spatial flexibility to source-receptor relationships for air quality modeling.

PubMed

Pisoni, E; Clappier, A; Degraeuwe, B; Thunis, P

2017-04-01

To cope with computing power limitations, air quality models that are used in integrated assessment applications are generally approximated by simpler expressions referred to as "source-receptor relationships (SRR)". In addition to speed, it is desirable for the SRR also to be spatially flexible (application over a wide range of situations) and to require a "light setup" (based on a limited number of full Air Quality Models - AQM simulations). But "speed", "flexibility" and "light setup" do not naturally come together and a good compromise must be ensured that preserves "accuracy", i.e. a good comparability between SRR results and AQM. In this work we further develop a SRR methodology to better capture spatial flexibility. The updated methodology is based on a cell-to-cell relationship, in which a bell-shape function links emissions to concentrations. Maintaining a cell-to-cell relationship is shown to be the key element needed to ensure spatial flexibility, while at the same time the proposed approach to link emissions and concentrations guarantees a "light set-up" phase. Validation has been repeated on different areas and domain sizes (countries, regions, province throughout Europe) for precursors reduced independently or contemporarily. All runs showed a bias around 10% between the full AQM and the SRR. This methodology allows assessing the impact on air quality of emission scenarios applied over any given area in Europe (regions, set of regions, countries), provided that a limited number of AQM simulations are performed for training.

Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

2015-11-01

The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing jet entrainment, mixing and spreading

DOEpatents

Farrington, Robert B.

1994-01-01

A free jet of air is disturbed at a frequency that substantially matches natural turbulences in the free jet to increase the entrainment, mixing, and spreading of air by the free jet, for example in a room or other enclosure. The disturbances are created by pulsing the flow of air that creates the free jet at the desired frequency. Such pulsing of the flow of air can be accomplished by sequentially occluding and opening a duct that confines and directs the flow of air, such as by rotating a disk on an axis transverse to the flow of air in the duct.

Clonal Spread in Second Growth Stands of Coast Redwood, Sequoia sempervirens

Treesearch

Vladimir Douhovnikoff; Richard S. Dodd

2007-01-01

Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) is one of the rare conifers to reproduce successfully through clonal spread. The importance of this mode of reproduction in stand development is largely unknown. Understanding the importance of clonal spread and the spatial structure of clones is crucial for stand management strategies that would aim to maximize...

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

PubMed

Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only

Assessment of near-source air pollution at a fine spatial scale ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle, an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of particulate and gaseous pollutants, was utilized to map air pollution trends near the Port of Charleston in South Carolina. High-resolution monitoring was performed along driving routes near several port terminals and rail yard facilities, recording geospatial coordinates and measurements of pollutants including black carbon, size-resolved particle count ranging from ultrafine to coarse (6 nm to 20 µm), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Additionally, a portable meteorological station was used to characterize local meteorology. Port activity data was provided by the Port Authority of Charleston and includes counts of ships and trucks, and port service operations such as cranes and forklifts during the sampling time periods. Measurements are supplemented with modeling performed with AERMOD and RLINE in order to characterize the impact of the various terminals at the Port of Charleston on local air quality. Specifically, the data are used to determine the magnitude of the increase in local, near-port pollutant concentrations as well as the spatial extent to which concentration is elevated above background. These effects are studied in relation to a number of potentially significant factors such

Spatial Analysis of Air Quality Monitor Data in China, Japan, and South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohde, Robert

2016-04-01

In 2015, Berkeley Earth published a widely-reported study concluding that air pollution contributes to 1.6 million deaths per year in China. This presentation will provide an update on that work with additional data for China and new analysis for South Korea and Japan. In China, two years of data from more than 1500 monitoring stations allows local trends to be estimated. Preliminary review indicates a trend towards improving air quality across most of China with decreasing emissions at most major population centers. Such improvements are consistent with tightening emissions standards and the decreasing usage of coal. In addition, new spatial analysis has been applied to ~900 monitoring sites in Japan and ~120 sites in South Korea. This new analysis provides information on air quality, pollutant source distributions, and implied mortality in these countries. Finally, boundary crossing fluxes in South Korea and Japan have been used to estimate the fraction of air pollution in Japan and South Korea that has being imported from sources in China.

Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Airline Travel on Inter-Regional Influenza Spread in the United States

PubMed Central

Brownstein, John S; Wolfe, Cecily J; Mandl, Kenneth D

2006-01-01

Background The influence of air travel on influenza spread has been the subject of numerous investigations using simulation, but very little empirical evidence has been provided. Understanding the role of airline travel in large-scale influenza spread is especially important given the mounting threat of an influenza pandemic. Several recent simulation studies have concluded that air travel restrictions may not have a significant impact on the course of a pandemic. Here, we assess, with empirical data, the role of airline volume on the yearly inter-regional spread of influenza in the United States. Methods and Findings We measured rate of inter-regional spread and timing of influenza in the United States for nine seasons, from 1996 to 2005 using weekly influenza and pneumonia mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonality was characterized by band-pass filtering. We found that domestic airline travel volume in November (mostly surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday) predicts the rate of influenza spread (r 2 = 0.60; p = 0.014). We also found that international airline travel influences the timing of influenza mortality (r 2 = 0.59; p = 0.016). The flight ban in the US after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent depression of the air travel market, provided a natural experiment for the evaluation of flight restrictions; the decrease in air travel was associated with a delayed and prolonged influenza season. Conclusions We provide the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline travel restrictions on influenza spread. PMID:16968115

Schools, Air Pollution, and Active Transportation: An Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Calgary, Canada

PubMed Central

Bertazzon, Stefania; Shahid, Rizwan

2017-01-01

An exploratory spatial analysis investigates the location of schools in Calgary (Canada) in relation to air pollution and active transportation options. Air pollution exhibits marked spatial variation throughout the city, along with distinct spatial patterns in summer and winter; however, all school locations lie within low to moderate pollution levels. Conversely, the study shows that almost half of the schools lie in low walkability locations; likewise, transitability is low for 60% of schools, and only bikability is widespread, with 93% of schools in very bikable locations. School locations are subsequently categorized by pollution exposure and active transportation options. This analysis identifies and maps schools according to two levels of concern: schools in car-dependent locations and relatively high pollution; and schools in locations conducive of active transportation, yet exposed to relatively high pollution. The findings can be mapped and effectively communicated to the public, health practitioners, and school boards. The study contributes with an explicitly spatial approach to the intra-urban public health literature. Developed for a moderately polluted city, the methods can be extended to more severely polluted environments, to assist in developing spatial public health policies to improve respiratory outcomes, neurodevelopment, and metabolic and attention disorders in school-aged children. PMID:28757577

Schools, Air Pollution, and Active Transportation: An Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Calgary, Canada.

PubMed

Bertazzon, Stefania; Shahid, Rizwan

2017-07-25

An exploratory spatial analysis investigates the location of schools in Calgary (Canada) in relation to air pollution and active transportation options. Air pollution exhibits marked spatial variation throughout the city, along with distinct spatial patterns in summer and winter; however, all school locations lie within low to moderate pollution levels. Conversely, the study shows that almost half of the schools lie in low walkability locations; likewise, transitability is low for 60% of schools, and only bikability is widespread, with 93% of schools in very bikable locations. School locations are subsequently categorized by pollution exposure and active transportation options. This analysis identifies and maps schools according to two levels of concern: schools in car-dependent locations and relatively high pollution; and schools in locations conducive of active transportation, yet exposed to relatively high pollution. The findings can be mapped and effectively communicated to the public, health practitioners, and school boards. The study contributes with an explicitly spatial approach to the intra-urban public health literature. Developed for a moderately polluted city, the methods can be extended to more severely polluted environments, to assist in developing spatial public health policies to improve respiratory outcomes, neurodevelopment, and metabolic and attention disorders in school-aged children.

Increasing jet entrainment, mixing and spreading

DOEpatents

Farrington, R.B.

1994-08-16

A free jet of air is disturbed at a frequency that substantially matches natural turbulences in the free jet to increase the entrainment, mixing, and spreading of air by the free jet, for example in a room or other enclosure. The disturbances are created by pulsing the flow of air that creates the free jet at the desired frequency. Such pulsing of the flow of air can be accomplished by sequentially occluding and opening a duct that confines and directs the flow of air, such as by rotating a disk on an axis transverse to the flow of air in the duct. 11 figs.

Spatially resolved air-water emissions tradeoffs improve regulatory impact analyses for electricity generation.

PubMed

Gingerich, Daniel B; Sun, Xiaodi; Behrer, A Patrick; Azevedo, Inês L; Mauter, Meagan S

2017-02-21

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) generate air, water, and solids emissions that impose substantial human health, environmental, and climate change (HEC) damages. This work demonstrates the importance of accounting for cross-media emissions tradeoffs, plant and regional emissions factors, and spatially variation in the marginal damages of air emissions when performing regulatory impact analyses for electric power generation. As a case study, we assess the benefits and costs of treating wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater at US CFPPs using the two best available treatment technology options specified in the 2015 Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELGs). We perform a life-cycle inventory of electricity and chemical inputs to FGD wastewater treatment processes and quantify the marginal HEC damages of associated air emissions. We combine these spatially resolved damage estimates with Environmental Protection Agency estimates of water quality benefits, fuel-switching benefits, and regulatory compliance costs. We estimate that the ELGs will impose average net costs of $3.01 per cubic meter for chemical precipitation and biological wastewater treatment and $11.26 per cubic meter for zero-liquid discharge wastewater treatment (expected cost-benefit ratios of 1.8 and 1.7, respectively), with damages concentrated in regions containing a high fraction of coal generation or a large chemical manufacturing industry. Findings of net cost for FGD wastewater treatment are robust to uncertainty in auxiliary power source, location of chemical manufacturing, and binding air emissions limits in noncompliant regions, among other variables. Future regulatory design will minimize compliance costs and HEC tradeoffs by regulating air, water, and solids emissions simultaneously and performing regulatory assessments that account for spatial variation in emissions impacts.

Spatially resolved air-water emissions tradeoffs improve regulatory impact analyses for electricity generation

PubMed Central

Gingerich, Daniel B.; Behrer, A. Patrick; Azevedo, Inês L.

2017-01-01

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) generate air, water, and solids emissions that impose substantial human health, environmental, and climate change (HEC) damages. This work demonstrates the importance of accounting for cross-media emissions tradeoffs, plant and regional emissions factors, and spatially variation in the marginal damages of air emissions when performing regulatory impact analyses for electric power generation. As a case study, we assess the benefits and costs of treating wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater at US CFPPs using the two best available treatment technology options specified in the 2015 Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELGs). We perform a life-cycle inventory of electricity and chemical inputs to FGD wastewater treatment processes and quantify the marginal HEC damages of associated air emissions. We combine these spatially resolved damage estimates with Environmental Protection Agency estimates of water quality benefits, fuel-switching benefits, and regulatory compliance costs. We estimate that the ELGs will impose average net costs of $3.01 per cubic meter for chemical precipitation and biological wastewater treatment and $11.26 per cubic meter for zero-liquid discharge wastewater treatment (expected cost-benefit ratios of 1.8 and 1.7, respectively), with damages concentrated in regions containing a high fraction of coal generation or a large chemical manufacturing industry. Findings of net cost for FGD wastewater treatment are robust to uncertainty in auxiliary power source, location of chemical manufacturing, and binding air emissions limits in noncompliant regions, among other variables. Future regulatory design will minimize compliance costs and HEC tradeoffs by regulating air, water, and solids emissions simultaneously and performing regulatory assessments that account for spatial variation in emissions impacts. PMID:28167772

Using Mobile Monitoring to Assess Spatial Variability in Urban Air Pollution Levels: Opportunities and Challenges (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, T.

2010-12-01

Measuring air pollution concentrations from a moving platform is not a new idea. Historically, however, most information on the spatial variability of air pollutants have been derived from fixed site networks operating simultaneously over space. While this approach has obvious advantages from a regulatory perspective, with the increasing need to understand ever finer scales of spatial variability in urban pollution levels, the use of mobile monitoring to supplement fixed site networks has received increasing attention. Here we present examples of the use of this approach: 1) to assess existing fixed-site fine particle networks in Seattle, WA, including the establishment of new fixed-site monitoring locations; 2) to assess the effectiveness of a regulatory intervention, a wood stove burning ban, on the reduction of fine particle levels in the greater Puget Sound region; and 3) to assess spatial variability of both wood smoke and mobile source impacts in both Vancouver, B.C. and Tacoma, WA. Deducing spatial information from the inherently spatio-temporal measurements taken from a mobile platform is an area that deserves further attention. We discuss the use of “fuzzy” points to address the fine-scale spatio-temporal variability in the concentration of mobile source pollutants, specifically to deduce the broader distribution and sources of fine particle soot in the summer in Vancouver, B.C. We also discuss the use of principal component analysis to assess the spatial variability in multivariate, source-related features deduced from simultaneous measurements of light scattering, light absorption and particle-bound PAHs in Tacoma, WA. With increasing miniaturization and decreasing power requirements of air monitoring instruments, the number of simultaneous measurements that can easily be made from a mobile platform is rapidly increasing. Hopefully the methods used to design mobile monitoring experiments for differing purposes, and the methods used to interpret those

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

PubMed

Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2012-06-19

Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

Neuronal and Astrocytic Monoacylglycerol Lipase Limit the Spread of Endocannabinoid Signaling in the Cerebellum.

PubMed

Chen, Yao; Liu, Xiaojie; Vickstrom, Casey R; Liu, Michelle J; Zhao, Li; Viader, Andreu; Cravatt, Benjamin F; Liu, Qing-Song

2016-01-01

Endocannabinoids are diffusible lipophilic molecules that may spread to neighboring synapses. Monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL) is the principal enzyme that degrades the endocannabinoid 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG). Using knock-out mice in which MAGL is deleted globally or selectively in neurons and astrocytes, we investigated the extent to which neuronal and astrocytic MAGL limit the spread of 2-AG-mediated retrograde synaptic depression in cerebellar slices. A brief tetanic stimulation of parallel fibers in the molecular layer induced synaptically evoked suppression of excitation (SSE) in Purkinje cells, and both neuronal and astrocytic MAGL contribute to the termination of this form of endocannabinoid-mediated synaptic depression. The spread of SSE among Purkinje cells occurred only after global knock-out of MAGL or pharmacological blockade of either MAGL or glutamate uptake, but no spread was detected following neuron- or astrocyte-specific deletion of MAGL. The spread of endocannabinoid signaling was also influenced by the spatial pattern of synaptic stimulation, because it did not occur at spatially dispersed parallel fiber synapses induced by stimulating the granular layer. The tetanic stimulation of parallel fibers did not induce endocannabinoid-mediated synaptic suppression in Golgi cells even after disruption of MAGL and glutamate uptake, suggesting that heightened release of 2-AG by Purkinje cells does not spread the retrograde signal to parallel fibers that innervate Golgi cells. These results suggest that both neuronal and astrocytic MAGL limit the spatial diffusion of 2-AG and confer synapse-specificity of endocannabinoid signaling.

Assessment of Near-Source Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale Utilizing Mobile Monitoring Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle – an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of partic...

Spatial Distribution and Air-Water Exchange of Organic Flame Retardants in the Lower Great Lakes.

PubMed

McDonough, Carrie A; Puggioni, Gavino; Helm, Paul A; Muir, Derek; Lohmann, Rainer

2016-09-06

Organic flame retardants (OFRs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and novel halogenated flame retardants (NHFRs) are ubiquitous, persistent, and bioaccumulative contaminants that have been used in consumer goods to slow combustion. In this study, polyethylene passive samplers (PEs) were deployed throughout the lower Great Lakes (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario) to measure OFRs in air and water, calculate air-water exchange fluxes, and investigate spatial trends. Dissolved Σ12BDE was greatest in Lake Ontario near Toronto (18 pg/L), whereas gaseous Σ12BDE was greatest on the southern shoreline of Lake Erie (11 pg/m(3)). NHFRs were generally below detection limits. Air-water exchange was dominated by absorption of BDEs 47 and 99, ranging from -964 pg/m(2)/day to -30 pg/m(2)/day. Σ12BDE in air and water was significantly correlated with surrounding population density, suggesting that phased-out PBDEs continued to be emitted from population centers along the Great Lakes shoreline in 2012. Correlation with dissolved Σ12BDE was strongest when considering population within 25 km while correlation with gaseous Σ12BDE was strongest when using population within 3 km to the south of each site. Bayesian kriging was used to predict dissolved Σ12BDE over the lakes, illustrating the utility of relatively highly spatially resolved measurements in identifying potential hot spots for future study.

Measurement of spatial and temporal variation in volatile hazardous air pollutants in Tacoma, Washington, using a mobile membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS) system.

PubMed

Davey, Nicholas G; Fitzpatrick, Cole T E; Etzkorn, Jacob M; Martinsen, Morten; Crampton, Robert S; Onstad, Gretchen D; Larson, Timothy V; Yost, Michael G; Krogh, Erik T; Gilroy, Michael; Himes, Kathy H; Saganić, Erik T; Simpson, Christopher D; Gill, Christopher G

2014-09-19

The objective of this study was to use membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS), implemented on a mobile platform, in order to provide real-time, fine-scale, temporally and spatially resolved measurements of several hazardous air pollutants. This work is important because there is now substantial evidence that fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of air pollutant concentrations are important determinants of exposure to air pollution and adverse health outcomes. The study took place in Tacoma, WA during periods of impaired air quality in the winter and summer of 2008 and 2009. Levels of fine particles were higher in winter compared to summer, and were spatially uniform across the study area. Concentrations of vapor phase pollutants measured by membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS), notably benzene and toluene, had relatively uniform spatial distributions at night, but exhibited substantial spatial variation during the day-daytime levels were up to 3-fold higher at traffic-impacted locations compared to a reference site. Although no direct side-by-side comparison was made between the MIMS system and traditional fixed site monitors, the MIMS system typically reported higher concentrations of specific VOCs, particularly benzene, ethylbenzene and naphthalene, compared to annual average concentrations obtained from SUMA canisters and gas chromatographic analysis at the fixed sites.

Assessment of Near-Source Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale Utilizing Mobile Monitoring Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle – an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of particulate and gaseous po...

Computational Study of Ventilation and Disease Spread in Poultry Houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimbala, John; Pawar, Sourabh; Wheeler, Eileen; Lindberg, Darla

2006-11-01

The air flow in and around poultry houses has been studied numerically with the goal of determining disease spread characteristics and comparing ventilation schemes. A typical manure-belt layer egg production facility is considered. The continuity, momentum, and energy equations are solved for flow both inside and outside poultry houses using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT. Both simplified two-dimensional and fully three-dimensional geometries are modeled. The spread of virus particles is considered to be analogous to diffusion of a tracer contaminant gas, in this case ammonia. The effect of thermal plumes produced by the hens in the poultry house is also considered. Two ventilation schemes with opposite flow directions are compared. Contours of temperature and ammonia mass fraction for both cases are obtained and compared. The analysis shows that ventilation and air quality characteristics are much better for the case in which the air flow is from bottom to top (enhancing the thermal plume) instead of from top to bottom (fighting the thermal plume) as in most poultry houses. This has implications in air quality control in the event of epidemic outbreaks of avian flu or other infectious diseases.

Spatial and temporal spread of Citrus tristeza virus and its aphid vectors in the North western area of Morocco.

PubMed

Elhaddad, Abdesslam; ElAmrani, Amal; Fereres, Alberto; Moreno, Aranzazu

2016-12-01

First report of Citrus tristeza virus (CTV,Closterovirus) in Morocco datesback to 1961 in collections of citrus varieties. An exhaustive survey of citrus in the north of the country in 2009 revealed that CTV was spread all over the citrus production area. We attempted to evaluate the relative contribution of different aphid species in the spread of CTV disease in a Citrus reticulata orchard at the Loukkous region during 2 years (2012 and 2013). The overall CTV incidence estimated in the experimental site increased from 17.8% in 2012 to 31.15% in 2013. The most abundant aphid species colonising clementine trees was Aphis spiraecola and A. gossypii. Both aphid species reached their maximum peaks during the spring season. The rate of viruliferous aphids, estimated by real-time RT-PCR of single aphid, revealed that 35.4% of winged A. gossypii and 28.8% of winged A. spiraecola were viruliferous, confirming a high inoculum pressure in the area surrounding the experimental site. The aphid species Toxoptera citricida, which is able to transmit the aggressive isolates of CTV, was not found in the Loukkous region. The study of the spatial distribution of the CTV showed that in general, the disease was randomly distributed in the field. Overall, the results seem to indicate that A. spiraecola may be considered as the major aphid species contributing to CTV spread in our experimental conditions. The prevalence of mild strains in the region and the high level of aphid flight activity could explain the rapid evolution of CTV incidence in the experimental area. © 2015 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010.

PubMed

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010

PubMed Central

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this

Geostatistical uncertainty of assessing air quality using high-spatial-resolution lichen data: A health study in the urban area of Sines, Portugal.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Manuel C; Pinho, P; Branquinho, C; Llop, Esteve; Pereira, Maria J

2016-08-15

In most studies correlating health outcomes with air pollution, personal exposure assignments are based on measurements collected at air-quality monitoring stations not coinciding with health data locations. In such cases, interpolators are needed to predict air quality in unsampled locations and to assign personal exposures. Moreover, a measure of the spatial uncertainty of exposures should be incorporated, especially in urban areas where concentrations vary at short distances due to changes in land use and pollution intensity. These studies are limited by the lack of literature comparing exposure uncertainty derived from distinct spatial interpolators. Here, we addressed these issues with two interpolation methods: regression Kriging (RK) and ordinary Kriging (OK). These methods were used to generate air-quality simulations with a geostatistical algorithm. For each method, the geostatistical uncertainty was drawn from generalized linear model (GLM) analysis. We analyzed the association between air quality and birth weight. Personal health data (n=227) and exposure data were collected in Sines (Portugal) during 2007-2010. Because air-quality monitoring stations in the city do not offer high-spatial-resolution measurements (n=1), we used lichen data as an ecological indicator of air quality (n=83). We found no significant difference in the fit of GLMs with any of the geostatistical methods. With RK, however, the models tended to fit better more often and worse less often. Moreover, the geostatistical uncertainty results showed a marginally higher mean and precision with RK. Combined with lichen data and land-use data of high spatial resolution, RK is a more effective geostatistical method for relating health outcomes with air quality in urban areas. This is particularly important in small cities, which generally do not have expensive air-quality monitoring stations with high spatial resolution. Further, alternative ways of linking human activities with their

Using Mobile Phone Data to Predict the Spatial Spread of Cholera

PubMed Central

Bengtsson, Linus; Gaudart, Jean; Lu, Xin; Moore, Sandra; Wetter, Erik; Sallah, Kankoe; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Piarroux, Renaud

2015-01-01

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains. PMID:25747871

Using mobile phone data to predict the spatial spread of cholera.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Linus; Gaudart, Jean; Lu, Xin; Moore, Sandra; Wetter, Erik; Sallah, Kankoe; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Piarroux, Renaud

2015-03-09

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains.

Patient-specific quantification of image quality: An automated method for measuring spatial resolution in clinical CT images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanders, Jeremiah, E-mail: jeremiah.sanders@duke.e

Purpose: To develop and validate an automated technique for evaluating the spatial resolution characteristics of clinical computed tomography (CT) images. Methods: Twenty one chest and abdominopelvic clinical CT datasets were examined in this study. An algorithm was developed to extract a CT resolution index (RI) analogous to the modulation transfer function from clinical CT images by measuring the edge-spread function (ESF) across the patient’s skin. A polygon mesh of the air-skin boundary was created. The faces of the mesh were then used to measure the ESF across the air-skin interface. The ESF was differentiated to obtain the line-spread function (LSF),more » and the LSF was Fourier transformed to obtain the RI. The algorithm’s ability to detect the radial dependence of the RI was investigated. RIs measured with the proposed method were compared with a conventional phantom-based method across two reconstruction algorithms (FBP and iterative) using the spatial frequency at 50% RI, f{sub 50}, as the metric for comparison. Three reconstruction kernels were investigated for each reconstruction algorithm. Finally, an observer study was conducted to determine if observers could visually perceive the differences in the measured blurriness of images reconstructed with a given reconstruction method. Results: RI measurements performed with the proposed technique exhibited the expected dependencies on the image reconstruction. The measured f{sub 50} values increased with harder kernels for both FBP and iterative reconstruction. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm was able to detect the radial dependence of the RI. Patient-specific measurements of the RI were comparable to the phantom-based technique, but the patient data exhibited a large spread in the measured f{sub 50}, indicating that some datasets were blurrier than others even when the projection data were reconstructed with the same reconstruction algorithm and kernel. Results from the observer study

Operator Spreading in Random Unitary Circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahum, Adam; Vijay, Sagar; Haah, Jeongwan

2018-04-01

Random quantum circuits yield minimally structured models for chaotic quantum dynamics, which are able to capture, for example, universal properties of entanglement growth. We provide exact results and coarse-grained models for the spreading of operators by quantum circuits made of Haar-random unitaries. We study both 1 +1 D and higher dimensions and argue that the coarse-grained pictures carry over to operator spreading in generic many-body systems. In 1 +1 D , we demonstrate that the out-of-time-order correlator (OTOC) satisfies a biased diffusion equation, which gives exact results for the spatial profile of the OTOC and determines the butterfly speed vB. We find that in 1 +1 D , the "front" of the OTOC broadens diffusively, with a width scaling in time as t1 /2. We address fluctuations in the OTOC between different realizations of the random circuit, arguing that they are negligible in comparison to the broadening of the front within a realization. Turning to higher dimensions, we show that the averaged OTOC can be understood exactly via a remarkable correspondence with a purely classical droplet growth problem. This implies that the width of the front of the averaged OTOC scales as t1 /3 in 2 +1 D and as t0.240 in 3 +1 D (exponents of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class). We support our analytic argument with simulations in 2 +1 D . We point out that, in two or higher spatial dimensions, the shape of the spreading operator at late times is affected by underlying lattice symmetries and, in general, is not spherical. However, when full spatial rotational symmetry is present in 2 +1 D , our mapping implies an exact asymptotic form for the OTOC, in terms of the Tracy-Widom distribution. For an alternative perspective on the OTOC in 1 +1 D , we map it to the partition function of an Ising-like statistical mechanics model. As a result of special structure arising from unitarity, this partition function reduces to a random walk calculation which can be

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: the example of Bulgaria.

PubMed

Martínez-López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos, Angel Manuel; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2013-07-26

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air Travel Is Associated with Intracontinental Spread of Dengue Virus Serotypes 1–3 in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sousa, Edivaldo Costa; Pantoja, Jamilla A.; Rodrigues, Sueli G.; Carvalho, Valéria L.; Medeiros, Daniele B. A.; Savji, Nazir; Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; Vasconcelos, Pedro F. C.; Lipkin, W. Ian

2014-01-01

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil. PMID:24743730

The Effect of Magnetic Field on Positron Range and Spatial Resolution in an Integrated Whole-Body Time-Of-Flight PET/MRI System.

PubMed

Huang, Shih-Ying; Savic, Dragana; Yang, Jaewon; Shrestha, Uttam; Seo, Youngho

2014-11-01

Simultaneous imaging systems combining positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been actively investigated. A PET/MR imaging system (GE Healthcare) comprised of a time-of-flight (TOF) PET system utilizing silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) and 3-tesla (3T) MRI was recently installed at our institution. The small-ring (60 cm diameter) TOF PET subsystem of this PET/MRI system can generate images with higher spatial resolution compared with conventional PET systems. We have examined theoretically and experimentally the effect of uniform magnetic fields on the spatial resolution for high-energy positron emitters. Positron emitters including 18 F, 124 I, and 68 Ga were simulated in water using the Geant4 Monte Carlo toolkit in the presence of a uniform magnetic field (0, 3, and 7 Tesla). The positron annihilation position was tracked to determine the 3D spatial distribution of the 511-keV gammy ray emission. The full-width at tenth maximum (FWTM) of the positron point spread function (PSF) was determined. Experimentally, 18 F and 68 Ga line source phantoms in air and water were imaged with an investigational PET/MRI system and a PET/CT system to investigate the effect of magnetic field on the spatial resolution of PET. The full-width half maximum (FWHM) of the line spread function (LSF) from the line source was determined as the system spatial resolution. Simulations and experimental results show that the in-plane spatial resolution was slightly improved at field strength as low as 3 Tesla, especially when resolving signal from high-energy positron emitters in the air-tissue boundary.

Modeling emerald ash borer spread in Ohio and Michigan

Treesearch

Anantha Prasad; Louis Iverson; Matthew Peters; Jonathan Bossenbroek; Davis Sydnor; Mark Schwartz

2008-01-01

Our group has been modelling the spread of emerald ash borer (EAB) in Ohio using a spatially explicit cell-based model that takes into account the insect's flight characteristics (Insect Flight Model) as well as external factors that enable the insects to travel passively (Insect Ride Model).

Assessment of Near-Source Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale Utilizing a Mobile Monitoring Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle – an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of particulate and gaseous po...

Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallest, David W.; Lichtenberger, Adele M.; Fox, Christopher J.; Daniels, Karen E.

2010-07-01

The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R~tδ. We find spreading exponents δH≈0.30 and δΓ≈0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of δ=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

Spreading of triboelectrically charged granular matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Deepak; Sane, A.; Gohil, Smita.; Bandaru, P. R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Ghosh, Shankar

2014-06-01

We report on the spreading of triboelectrically charged glass particles on an oppositely charged surface of a plastic cylindrical container in the presence of a constant mechanical agitation. The particles spread via sticking, as a monolayer on the cylinder's surface. Continued agitation initiates a sequence of instabilities of this monolayer, which first forms periodic wavy-stripe-shaped transverse density modulation in the monolayer and then ejects narrow and long particle-jets from the tips of these stripes. These jets finally coalesce laterally to form a homogeneous spreading front that is layered along the spreading direction. These remarkable growth patterns are related to a time evolving frictional drag between the moving charged glass particles and the countercharges on the plastic container. The results provide insight into the multiscale time-dependent tribolelectric processes and motivates further investigation into the microscopic causes of these macroscopic dynamical instabilities and spatial structures.

Ignition, Transition, Flame Spread in Multidimensional Configurations in Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashiwagi, Takashi; Mell, William E.; McGrattan, Kevin B.; Baum, Howard R.; Olson, Sandra L.; Fujita, Osamu; Kikuchi, Masao; Ito, Kenichi

1997-01-01

Ignition of solid fuels by external thermal radiation and subsequent transition to flame spread are processes that not only are of considerable scientific interest but which also have fire safety applications. A material which undergoes a momentary ignition might be tolerable but a material which permits a transition to subsequent flame spread would significantly increase the fire hazard in a spacecraft. Therefore, the limiting condition under which flame cannot spread should be calculated from a model of the transition from ignition instead of by the traditional approach based on limits to a steady flame spread model. However, although the fundamental processes involved in ignition have been suggested there have been no definitive experimental or modeling studies due to the flow motion generated by buoyancy near the heated sample surface. In this study, microgravity experiments which required longer test times such as in air and surface smoldering experiment were conducted in the space shuttle STS-75 flight; shorter experimental tests such as in 35% and 50% oxygen were conducted in the droptower in the Japan Microgravity Center, JAMIC. Their experimental data along with theoretically calculated results from solving numerically the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations are summarized in this paper.

Factors influencing the spatial extent of mobile source air pollution impacts: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ying; Levy, Jonathan I

2007-01-01

Background There has been growing interest among exposure assessors, epidemiologists, and policymakers in the concept of "hot spots", or more broadly, the "spatial extent" of impacts from traffic-related air pollutants. This review attempts to quantitatively synthesize findings about the spatial extent under various circumstances. Methods We include both the peer-reviewed literature and government reports, and focus on four significant air pollutants: carbon monoxide, benzene, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter (including both ultrafine particle counts and fine particle mass). From the identified studies, we extracted information about significant factors that would be hypothesized to influence the spatial extent within the study, such as the study type (e.g., monitoring, air dispersion modeling, GIS-based epidemiological studies), focus on concentrations or health risks, pollutant under study, background concentration, emission rate, and meteorological factors, as well as the study's implicit or explicit definition of spatial extent. We supplement this meta-analysis with results from some illustrative atmospheric dispersion modeling. Results We found that pollutant characteristics and background concentrations best explained variability in previously published spatial extent estimates, with a modifying influence of local meteorology, once some extreme values based on health risk estimates were removed from the analysis. As hypothesized, inert pollutants with high background concentrations had the largest spatial extent (often demonstrating no significant gradient), and pollutants formed in near-source chemical reactions (e.g., nitrogen dioxide) had a larger spatial extent than pollutants depleted in near-source chemical reactions or removed through coagulation processes (e.g., nitrogen oxide and ultrafine particles). Our illustrative dispersion model illustrated the complex interplay of spatial extent definitions, emission rates, background concentrations

Assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading in the watercolor configuration.

PubMed

Kimura, Eiji; Kuroki, Mikako

2014-01-01

A colored line flanking a darker contour will appear to spread its color onto an area enclosed by the line (watercolor effect). The watercolor effect has been characterized as an assimilative effect, but non-assimilative color spreading has also been demonstrated in the same spatial configuration; e.g., when a black inner contour (IC) is paired with a blue outer contour (OC), yellow color spreading can be observed. To elucidate visual mechanisms underlying these different color spreading effects, this study investigated the effects of luminance ratio between the double contours on the induced color by systematically manipulating the IC and the OC luminance (Experiment 1) as well as the background luminance (Experiment 2). The results showed that the luminance conditions suitable for assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading were nearly opposite. When the Weber contrast of the IC to the background luminance (IC contrast) was smaller in size than that of the OC (OC contrast), the induced color became similar to the IC color (assimilative spreading). In contrast, when the OC contrast was smaller than or equal to the IC contrast, the induced color became yellow (non-assimilative spreading). Extending these findings, Experiment 3 showed that bilateral color spreading, i.e., assimilative spreading on one side and non-assimilative spreading on the other side, can also be observed in the watercolor configuration. These results suggest that the assimilative and the non-assimilative spreading were mediated by different visual mechanisms. The properties of the assimilative spreading are consistent with the model proposed to account for neon color spreading (Grossberg and Mingolla, 1985) and extended for the watercolor effect (Pinna and Grossberg, 2005). However, the present results suggest that additional mechanisms are needed to account for the non-assimilative color spreading.

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale

PubMed Central

Wahida, Kihal-Talantikite; Padilla, Cindy M.; Denis, Zmirou-Navier; Olivier, Blanchard; Géraldine, Le Nir; Philippe, Quenel; Séverine, Deguen

2016-01-01

Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects’ residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO2 following two steps: (i) retrospective reconstitution of NO2 concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii) a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs. PMID:26999170

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale.

PubMed

Wahida, Kihal-Talantikite; Padilla, Cindy M; Denis, Zmirou-Navier; Olivier, Blanchard; Géraldine, Le Nir; Philippe, Quenel; Séverine, Deguen

2016-03-15

Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects' residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO₂ following two steps: (i) retrospective reconstitution of NO₂ concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii) a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs.

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in Central Asia.

PubMed

Wilschut, Liesbeth I; Addink, Elisabeth A; Heesterbeek, Hans; Heier, Lise; Laudisoit, Anne; Begon, Mike; Davis, Stephen; Dubyanskiy, Vladimir M; Burdelov, Leonid A; de Jong, Steven M

2013-10-31

Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap. Three 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed - the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) - to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric. The burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and barriers showed a mostly NWSE

Effects of high temperature and exposure to air on mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Lmk 1819) hemocyte phagocytosis: modulation of spreading and oxidative response.

PubMed

Mosca, Francesco; Narcisi, Valeria; Calzetta, Angela; Gioia, Luisa; Finoia, Maria G; Latini, Mario; Tiscar, Pietro G

2013-06-01

Hemocytes are a critical component of the mussel defense system and the present study aims at investigating their spreading and oxidative properties during phagocytosis under in vivo experimental stress conditions. The spreading ability was measured by an automated cell analyzer on the basis of the circularity, a parameter corresponding to the hemocyte roundness. The oxidative activity was investigated by micromethod assay, measuring the respiratory burst as expression of the fluorescence generated by the oxidation of specific probe. Following the application of high temperature and exposure to air, there was evidence of negative modulation of spreading and oxidative response, as revealed by a cell roundness increase and fluorescence generation decrease. Therefore, the fall of respiratory burst appeared as matched with the inhibition of hemocyte morphological activation, suggesting a potential depression of the phagocytosis process and confirming the application of the circularity parameter as potential stress marker, both in experimental and field studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of near-source air pollution at a fine spatial scale utilizing a mobile measurement platform approach

EPA Science Inventory

Mobile monitoring is an emerging strategy to characterize spatially and temporally variable air pollution in areas near sources. EPA’s Geospatial Monitoring of Air Pollution (GMAP) vehicle, an all-electric vehicle measuring real-time concentrations of particulate and gaseous poll...

Mapping the Spread of Methamphetamine Abuse in California From 1995 to 2008

PubMed Central

Ponicki, William R.; Remer, Lillian G.; Waller, Lance A.; Zhu, Li; Gorman, Dennis M.

2013-01-01

Objectives. From 1983 to 2008, the incidence of methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) presenting at hospitals in California increased 13-fold. We assessed whether this growth could be characterized as a drug epidemic. Methods. We geocoded MA discharges to residential zip codes from 1995 through 2008. We related discharges to population and environmental characteristics using Bayesian Poisson conditional autoregressive models, correcting for small area effects and spatial misalignment and enabling an assessment of contagion between areas. Results. MA incidence increased exponentially in 3 phases interrupted by implementation of laws limiting access to methamphetamine precursors. MA growth from 1999 through 2008 was 17% per year. MA was greatest in areas with larger White or Hispanic low-income populations, small household sizes, and good connections to highway systems. Spatial misalignment was a source of bias in estimated effects. Spatial autocorrelation was substantial, accounting for approximately 80% of error variance in the model. Conclusions. From 1995 through 2008, MA exhibited signs of growth and spatial spread characteristic of drug epidemics, spreading most rapidly through low-income White and Hispanic populations living outside dense urban areas. PMID:23078474

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

Non-aqueous phase liquid spreading during soil vapor extraction

PubMed Central

Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Hunt, James R.

2010-01-01

Many non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) are expected to spread at the air – water interface, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. In the vadose zone, this spreading should increase the surface area for mass transfer and the efficiency of volatile NAPL recovery by soil vapor extraction (SVE). Observations of spreading on water wet surfaces led to a conceptual model of oil spreading vertically above a NAPL pool in the vadose zone. Analysis of this model predicts that spreading can enhance the SVE contaminant recovery compared to conditions where the liquid does not spread. Experiments were conducted with spreading volatile oils hexane and heptane in wet porous media and capillary tubes, where spreading was observed at the scale of centimeters. Within porous medium columns up to a meter in height containing stagnant gas, spreading was less than ten centimeters and did not contribute significantly to hexane volatilization. Water film thinning and oil film pinning may have prevented significant oil film spreading, and thus did not enhance SVE at the scale of a meter. The experiments performed indicate that volatile oil spreading at the field scale is unlikely to contribute significantly to the efficiency of SVE. PMID:14734243

Improving AIRS Radiance Spectra in High Contrast Scenes Using MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pagano, Thomas S.; Aumann, Hartmut H.; Manning, Evan M.; Elliott, Denis A.; Broberg, Steven E.

2015-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 microns with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS is designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast accuracy and improved understanding of climate processes. As with most instruments, the AIRS Point Spread Functions (PSFs) are not the same for all detectors. When viewing a non-uniform scene, this causes a significant radiometric error in some channels that is scene dependent and cannot be removed without knowledge of the underlying scene. The magnitude of the error depends on the combination of non-uniformity of the AIRS spatial response for a given channel and the non-uniformity of the scene, but is typically only noticeable in about 1% of the scenes and about 10% of the channels. The current solution is to avoid those channels when performing geophysical retrievals. In this effort we use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument to provide information on the scene uniformity that is used to correct the AIRS data. For the vast majority of channels and footprints the technique works extremely well when compared to a Principal Component (PC) reconstruction of the AIRS channels. In some cases where the scene has high inhomogeneity in an irregular pattern, and in some channels, the method can actually degrade the spectrum. Most of the degraded channels appear to be slightly affected by random noise introduced in the process, but those with larger degradation may be affected by alignment errors in the AIRS relative to MODIS or uncertainties in the PSF. Despite these errors, the methodology shows the ability to correct AIRS radiances in non-uniform scenes under some of the worst case conditions and improves the ability to

Upward Flame Spread Over Thin Solids in Partial Gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feier, I. I.; Shih, H. Y.; Sacksteder, K. R.; Tien, J. S.

2001-01-01

The effects of partial-gravity, reduced pressure, and sample width on upward flame spread over a thin cellulose fuel were studied experimentally and the results were compared to a numerical flame spread simulation. Fuel samples 1-cm, 2-cm, and 4-cm wide were burned in air at reduced pressures of 0.2 to 0.4 atmospheres in simulated gravity environments of 0.1-G, 0.16-G (Lunar), and 0.38-G (Martian) onboard the NASA KC-135 aircraft and in normal-gravity tests. Observed steady flame propagation speeds and pyrolysis lengths were approximately proportional to the gravity level. Flames spread more quickly and were longer with the wider samples and the variations with gravity and pressure increased with sample width. A numerical simulation of upward flame spread was developed including three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations, one-step Arrhenius kinetics for the gas phase flame and for the solid surface decomposition, and a fuel-surface radiative loss. The model provides detailed structure of flame temperatures, the flow field interactions with the flame, and the solid fuel mass disappearance. The simulation agrees with experimental flame spread rates and their dependence on gravity level but predicts a wider flammable region than found by experiment. Some unique three-dimensional flame features are demonstrated in the model results.

[Air pollution in an urban area nearby the Rome-Ciampino city airport].

PubMed

Di Menno di Bucchianico, Alessandro; Cattani, Giorgio; Gaeta, Alessandra; Caricchia, Anna Maria; Troiano, Francesco; Sozzi, Roberto; Bolignano, Andrea; Sacco, Fabrizio; Damizia, Sesto; Barberini, Silvia; Caleprico, Roberta; Fabozzi, Tina; Ancona, Carla; Ancona, Laura; Cesaroni, Giulia; Forastiere, Francesco; Gobbi, Gian Paolo; Costabile, Francesca; Angelini, Federico; Barnaba, Francesca; Inglessis, Marco; Tancredi, Francesco; Palumbo, Lorenzo; Fontana, Luca; Bergamaschi, Antonio; Iavicoli, Ivo

2014-01-01

to assess air pollution spatial and temporal variability in the urban area nearby the Ciampino International Airport (Rome) and to investigate the airport-related emissions contribute. the study domain was a 64 km2 area around the airport. Two fifteen-day monitoring campaigns (late spring, winter) were carried out. Results were evaluated using several runs outputs of an airport-related sources Lagrangian particle model and a photochemical model (the Flexible Air quality Regional Model, FARM). both standard and high time resolution air pollutant concentrations measurements: CO, NO, NO2, C6H6, mass and number concentration of several PM fractions. 46 fixed points (spread over the study area) of NO2 and volatile organic compounds concentrations (fifteen days averages); deterministic models outputs. standard time resolution measurements, as well as model outputs, showed the airport contribution to air pollution levels being little compared to the main source in the area (i.e. vehicular traffic). However, using high time resolution measurements, peaks of particles associated with aircraft takeoff (total number concentration and soot mass concentration), and landing (coarse mass concentration) were observed, when the site measurement was downwind to the runway. the frequently observed transient spikes associated with aircraft movements could lead to a not negligible contribute to ultrafine, soot and coarse particles exposure of people living around the airport. Such contribute and its spatial and temporal variability should be investigated when assessing the airports air quality impact.

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments.

PubMed

Lustig, Audrey; Worner, Susan P; Pitt, Joel P W; Doscher, Crile; Stouffer, Daniel B; Senay, Senait D

2017-10-01

Natural and human-induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross-study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework-MDIG) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small-grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life-history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.

Spatial variability of the effect of air pollution on term birth weight: evaluating influential factors using Bayesian hierarchical models.

PubMed

Li, Lianfa; Laurent, Olivier; Wu, Jun

2016-02-05

Epidemiological studies suggest that air pollution is adversely associated with pregnancy outcomes. Such associations may be modified by spatially-varying factors including socio-demographic characteristics, land-use patterns and unaccounted exposures. Yet, few studies have systematically investigated the impact of these factors on spatial variability of the air pollution's effects. This study aimed to examine spatial variability of the effects of air pollution on term birth weight across Census tracts and the influence of tract-level factors on such variability. We obtained over 900,000 birth records from 2001 to 2008 in Los Angeles County, California, USA. Air pollution exposure was modeled at individual level for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) using spatiotemporal models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical non-linear models were developed to (1) quantify the associations between air pollution exposure and term birth weight within each tract; and (2) examine the socio-demographic, land-use, and exposure-related factors contributing to the between-tract variability of the associations between air pollution and term birth weight. Higher air pollution exposure was associated with lower term birth weight (average posterior effects: -14.7 (95 % CI: -19.8, -9.7) g per 10 ppb increment in NO2 and -6.9 (95 % CI: -12.9, -0.9) g per 10 ppb increment in NOx). The variation of the association across Census tracts was significantly influenced by the tract-level socio-demographic, exposure-related and land-use factors. Our models captured the complex non-linear relationship between these factors and the associations between air pollution and term birth weight: we observed the thresholds from which the influence of the tract-level factors was markedly exacerbated or attenuated. Exacerbating factors might reflect additional exposure to environmental insults or lower socio-economic status with higher vulnerability, whereas attenuating factors might indicate reduced

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Spatial variation of air quality index and urban driving factors linkages: evidence from Chinese cities.

PubMed

Pu, Haixia; Luo, Kunli; Wang, Pin; Wang, Shaobin; Kang, Shun

2017-02-01

Daily air quality index (AQI) of 161 Chinese cities obtained from the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China in 2015 is conducted. In this study, to better explore spatial distribution and regional characteristic of AQI, global and local spatial autocorrelation is utilized. Pearson's correlation is introduced to determine the influence of single urban indicator on AQI value. Meanwhile, multiple linear stepwise regression is chosen to estimate quantitatively the most influential urban indicators on AQI. The spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that the AQI value of Chinese 161 cities shows a spatial dependency. Higher AQI is mainly located in north and northwest regions, whereas low AQI is concentrated in the south and the Qinghai-Tibet regions. The low AQI and high AQI values in China both exhibit relative immobility through seasonal variation. The influence degree of three adverse urban driving factors on AQI value is ranked from high to low: coal consumption of manufacturing > building area > coal consumption of the power industry. It is worth noting that the risk of exposed population to poor quality is greater in the northern region than in other regions. The results of the study provide a reference for the formulation of urban policy and improvement of air quality in China.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Air Pollution Index and its timescale-dependent relationship with meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Li, Li; Qian, Jun; Ou, Chun-Quan; Zhou, Ying-Xue; Guo, Cui; Guo, Yuming

2014-07-01

There is an increasing interest in spatial and temporal variation of air pollution and its association with weather conditions. We presented the spatial and temporal variation of Air Pollution Index (API) and examined the associations between API and meteorological factors during 2001-2011 in Guangzhou, China. A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess (STL) was used to decompose API. Wavelet analyses were performed to examine the relationships between API and several meteorological factors. Air quality has improved since 2005. APIs were highly correlated among five monitoring stations, and there were substantial temporal variations. Timescale-dependent relationships were found between API and a variety of meteorological factors. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed were negatively correlated with API, while diurnal temperature range and atmospheric pressure were positively correlated with API in the annual cycle. Our findings should be taken into account when determining air quality forecasts and pollution control measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal associations of road traffic noise and air pollution in London: Implications for epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Fecht, Daniela; Hansell, Anna L; Morley, David; Dajnak, David; Vienneau, Danielle; Beevers, Sean; Toledano, Mireille B; Kelly, Frank J; Anderson, H Ross; Gulliver, John

2016-03-01

Road traffic gives rise to noise and air pollution exposures, both of which are associated with adverse health effects especially for cardiovascular disease, but mechanisms may differ. Understanding the variability in correlations between these pollutants is essential to understand better their separate and joint effects on human health. We explored associations between modelled noise and air pollutants using different spatial units and area characteristics in London in 2003-2010. We modelled annual average exposures to road traffic noise (LAeq,24h, Lden, LAeq,16h, Lnight) for ~190,000 postcode centroids in London using the UK Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CRTN) method. We used a dispersion model (KCLurban) to model nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, ozone, total and the traffic-only component of particulate matter ≤2.5μm and ≤10μm. We analysed noise and air pollution correlations at the postcode level (~50 people), postcodes stratified by London Boroughs (~240,000 people), neighbourhoods (Lower layer Super Output Areas) (~1600 people), 1km grid squares, air pollution tertiles, 50m, 100m and 200m in distance from major roads and by deprivation tertiles. Across all London postcodes, we observed overall moderate correlations between modelled noise and air pollution that were stable over time (Spearman's rho range: |0.34-0.55|). Correlations, however, varied considerably depending on the spatial unit: largest ranges were seen in neighbourhoods and 1km grid squares (both Spearman's rho range: |0.01-0.87|) and was less for Boroughs (Spearman's rho range: |0.21-0.78|). There was little difference in correlations between exposure tertiles, distance from road or deprivation tertiles. Associations between noise and air pollution at the relevant geographical unit of analysis need to be carefully considered in any epidemiological analysis, in particular in complex urban areas. Low correlations near roads, however, suggest that independent effects of road noise and

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap. Methods Three 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed – the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) – to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric. Results The burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and

A novel mobile monitoring approach to characterize spatial and temporal variation in traffic-related air pollutants in an urban community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Chang Ho; Fan, Zhihua; Lioy, Paul J.; Baptista, Ana; Greenberg, Molly; Laumbach, Robert J.

2016-09-01

Air concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) vary in space and time within urban communities, presenting challenges for estimating human exposure and potential health effects. Conventional stationary monitoring stations/networks cannot effectively capture spatial characteristics. Alternatively, mobile monitoring approaches became popular to measure TRAPs along roadways or roadsides. However, these linear mobile monitoring approaches cannot thoroughly distinguish spatial variability from temporal variations in monitored TRAP concentrations. In this study, we used a novel mobile monitoring approach to simultaneously characterize spatial/temporal variations in roadside concentrations of TRAPs in urban settings. We evaluated the effectiveness of this mobile monitoring approach by performing concurrent measurements along two parallel paths perpendicular to a major roadway and/or along heavily trafficked roads at very narrow scale (one block away each other) within short time period (<30 min) in an urban community. Based on traffic and particulate matter (PM) source information, we selected 4 neighborhoods to study. The sampling activities utilized real-time monitors, including battery-operated PM2.5 monitor (SidePak), condensation particle counter (CPC 3007), black carbon (BC) monitor (Micro-Aethalometer), carbon monoxide (CO) monitor (Langan T15), and portable temperature/humidity data logger (HOBO U12), and a GPS-based tracker (Trackstick). Sampling was conducted for ∼3 h in the morning (7:30-10:30) in 7 separate days in March/April and 6 days in May/June 2012. Two simultaneous samplings were made at 5 spatially-distributed locations on parallel roads, usually distant one block each other, in each neighborhood. The 5-min averaged BC concentrations (AVG ± SD, [range]) were 2.53 ± 2.47 [0.09-16.3] μg/m3, particle number concentrations (PNC) were 33,330 ± 23,451 [2512-159,130] particles/cm3, PM2.5 mass concentrations were 8.87 ± 7.65 [0.27-46.5] �

Early Spatial and Temporal Events of Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 Spread following Blood-Borne Transmission in a Rabbit Model of Infection ▿

PubMed Central

Haynes, Rashade A. H.; Zimmerman, Bevin; Millward, Laurie; Ware, Evan; Premanandan, Christopher; Yu, Lianbo; Phipps, Andrew J.; Lairmore, Michael D.

2010-01-01

Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) infection causes adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) and is associated with a variety of lymphocyte-mediated disorders. HTLV-1 transmission occurs by transmission of infected cells via breast-feeding by infected mothers, sexual intercourse, and contaminated blood products. The route of exposure and early virus replication events are believed to be key determinants of virus-associated spread, antiviral immune responses, and ultimately disease outcomes. The lack of knowledge of early events of HTLV-1 spread following blood-borne transmission of the virus in vivo hinders a more complete understanding of the immunopathogenesis of HTLV-1 infections. Herein, we have used an established animal model of HTLV-1 infection to study early spatial and temporal events of the viral infection. Twelve-week-old rabbits were injected intravenously with cell-associated HTLV-1 (ACH-transformed R49). Blood and tissues were collected at defined intervals throughout the study to test the early spread of the infection. Antibody and hematologic responses were monitored throughout the infection. HTLV-1 intracellular Tax and soluble p19 matrix were tested from ex vivo cultured lymphocytes. Proviral copy numbers were measured by real-time PCR from blood and tissue mononuclear leukocytes. Our data indicate that intravenous infection with cell-associated HTLV-1 targets lymphocytes located in both primary lymphoid and gut-associated lymphoid compartments. A transient lymphocytosis that correlated with peak virus detection parameters was observed by 1 week postinfection before returning to baseline levels. Our data support emerging evidence that HTLV-1 promotes lymphocyte proliferation preceding early viral spread in lymphoid compartments to establish and maintain persistent infection. PMID:20219918

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

2008-11-11

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

Time and space in the middle paleolithic: Spatial structure and occupation dynamics of seven open-air sites.

PubMed

Clark, Amy E

2016-05-06

The spatial structure of archeological sites can help reconstruct the settlement dynamics of hunter-gatherers by providing information on the number and length of occupations. This study seeks to access this information through a comparison of seven sites. These sites are open-air and were all excavated over large spatial areas, up to 2,000 m(2) , and are therefore ideal for spatial analysis, which was done using two complementary methods, lithic refitting and density zones. Both methods were assessed statistically using confidence intervals. The statistically significant results from each site were then compiled to evaluate trends that occur across the seven sites. These results were used to assess the "spatial consistency" of each assemblage and, through that, the number and duration of occupations. This study demonstrates that spatial analysis can be a powerful tool in research on occupation dynamics and can help disentangle the many occupations that often make up an archeological assemblage. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wave directional spreading from point field measurements.

PubMed

McAllister, M L; Venugopal, V; Borthwick, A G L

2017-04-01

Ocean waves have multidirectional components. Most wave measurements are taken at a single point, and so fail to capture information about the relative directions of the wave components directly. Conventional means of directional estimation require a minimum of three concurrent time series of measurements at different spatial locations in order to derive information on local directional wave spreading. Here, the relationship between wave nonlinearity and directionality is utilized to estimate local spreading without the need for multiple concurrent measurements, following Adcock & Taylor (Adcock & Taylor 2009 Proc. R. Soc. A 465 , 3361-3381. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0031)), with the assumption that directional spreading is frequency independent. The method is applied to measurements recorded at the North Alwyn platform in the northern North Sea, and the results compared against estimates of wave spreading by conventional measurement methods and hindcast data. Records containing freak waves were excluded. It is found that the method provides accurate estimates of wave spreading over a range of conditions experienced at North Alwyn, despite the noisy chaotic signals that characterize such ocean wave data. The results provide further confirmation that Adcock and Taylor's method is applicable to metocean data and has considerable future promise as a technique to recover estimates of wave spreading from single point wave measurement devices.

Long-distance travel behaviours accelerate and aggravate the large-scale spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xu, Zhijing; Zu, Zhenghu; Zheng, Tao; Zhang, Wendou; Xu, Qing; Liu, Jinjie

2014-01-01

The study analyses the role of long-distance travel behaviours on the large-scale spatial spreading of directly transmitted infectious diseases, focusing on two different travel types in terms of the travellers travelling to a specific group or not. For this purpose, we have formulated and analysed a metapopulation model in which the individuals in each subpopulation are organised into a scale-free contact network. The long-distance travellers between the subpopulations will temporarily change the network structure of the destination subpopulation through the "merging effects (MEs)," which indicates that the travellers will be regarded as either connected components or isolated nodes in the contact network. The results show that the presence of the MEs has constantly accelerated the transmission of the diseases and aggravated the outbreaks compared to the scenario in which the diversity of the long-distance travel types is arbitrarily discarded. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are relatively constant regarding a wide range variation of several model parameters. Our study has highlighted several important causes which could significantly affect the spatiotemporal disease dynamics neglected by the present studies.

Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

PubMed Central

Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang; Woitzik, Johannes; Scheel, Michael; Wiesenthal, Dirk; Martus, Peter; Winkler, Maren K.L.; Hartings, Jed A.; Fabricius, Martin; Speckmann, Erwin-Josef; Gorji, Ali

2012-01-01

Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating channels initiates spreading depression of brain activity. In contrast, epileptic seizures show modest ion translocation and sustained depolarization below the inactivation threshold for action potential generating channels. Such modest sustained depolarization allows synchronous, highly frequent neuronal firing; ictal epileptic field potentials being its electrocorticographic and epileptic seizure its clinical correlate. Nevertheless, Leão in 1944 and Van Harreveld and Stamm in 1953 described in animals that silencing of brain activity induced by spreading depolarization changed during minimal electrical stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We here report on such spreading convulsions in monopolar subdural recordings in 2 of 25 consecutive aneurismal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients in vivo and neocortical slices from 12 patients with intractable temporal lobe epilepsy in vitro. The in vitro results suggest that γ-aminobutyric acid-mediated inhibition protects from spreading convulsions. Moreover, we describe arterial pulse artefacts mimicking epileptic field potentials in three patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage that ride on the slow potential peak. Twenty-one of the 25 subarachnoid haemorrhage patients (84%) had 656 spreading depolarizations in contrast to only three patients (12%) with 55 ictal epileptic events isolated from spreading depolarizations. Spreading depolarization frequency and depression

Computational And Experimental Studies Of Three-Dimensional Flame Spread Over Liquid Fuel Pools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D. (Technical Monitor); Cai, Jinsheng; Liu, Feng; Sirignano, William A.; Miller, Fletcher J.

2003-01-01

Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) studied ignition and flame spread above liquid fuels initially below the flashpoint temperature by using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that solves the coupled equations of both the gas and the liquid phases. Pulsating flame spread was attributed to the establishment of a gas-phase recirculation cell that forms just ahead of the flame leading edge because of the opposing effect of buoyancy-driven flow in the gas phase and the thermocapillary-driven flow in the liquid phase. Schiller and Sirignano (1996) extended the same study to include flame spread with forced opposed flow in the gas phase. A transitional flow velocity was found above which an originally uniform spreading flame pulsates. The same type of gas-phase recirculation cell caused by the combination of forced opposed flow, buoyancy-driven flow, and thermocapillary-driven concurrent flow was responsible for the pulsating flame spread. Ross and Miller (1998) and Miller and Ross (1998) performed experimental work that corroborates the computational findings of Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) and Schiller and Sirignano (1996). Cai, Liu, and Sirignano (2002) developed a more comprehensive three-dimensional model and computer code for the flame spread problem. Many improvements in modeling and numerical algorithms were incorporated in the three-dimensional model. Pools of finite width and length were studied in air channels of prescribed height and width. Significant three-dimensional effects around and along the pool edge were observed. The same three-dimensional code is used to study the detailed effects of pool depth, pool width, opposed air flow velocity, and different levels of air oxygen concentration (Cai, Liu, and Sirignano, 2003). Significant three-dimensional effects showing an unsteady wavy flame front for cases of wide pool width are found for the first time in computation, after being noted previously by experimental observers (Ross

Air travel and vector-borne disease movement.

PubMed

Tatem, A J; Huang, Z; Das, A; Qi, Q; Roth, J; Qiu, Y

2012-12-01

Recent decades have seen substantial expansions in the global air travel network and rapid increases in traffic volumes. The effects of this are well studied in terms of the spread of directly transmitted infections, but the role of air travel in the movement of vector-borne diseases is less well understood. Increasingly however, wider reaching surveillance for vector-borne diseases and our improving abilities to map the distributions of vectors and the diseases they carry, are providing opportunities to better our understanding of the impact of increasing air travel. Here we examine global trends in the continued expansion of air transport and its impact upon epidemiology. Novel malaria and chikungunya examples are presented, detailing how geospatial data in combination with information on air traffic can be used to predict the risks of vector-borne disease importation and establishment. Finally, we describe the development of an online tool, the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) tool, which brings together spatial data on air traffic and vector-borne disease distributions to quantify the seasonally changing risks for importation to non-endemic regions. Such a framework provides the first steps towards an ultimate goal of adaptive management based on near real time flight data and vector-borne disease surveillance.

Dynamic measurements of the spreading of liquid metals in controlled atmospheres with in situ surface preparation and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peebles, D. E.; Peebles, H. C.; Ohlhausen, J. A.; Hurst, M. J.

1996-02-01

A specially designed ultrahigh vacuum in situ surface analysis and wetting system has been constructed to study the spreading of liquid metal solders on carefully prepared and well-characterized solid substrates. The system consists of a standard ultrahigh vacuum surface analysis chamber linked to a reaction chamber for wetting or other experiments at pressures up to atmospheric. A sophisticated video system allows real-time monitoring of the spreading of the liquid metal through both side and top views. An infrared imaging system allows accurate remote temperature measurements. Sample surfaces are prepared and spreading experiments performed without intermediate exposure of the surfaces to the contaminating atmospheres. Solder spreading is performed under 50 Torr of highly purified helium gas to allow for adequate thermal coupling between the solder and the substrate. Initial studies have been completed for the spreading of pure tin solder on copper substrates in the absence of any fluxing agent. Three types of copper substrate surfaces were investigated in these experiments: the sputter-cleaned, air-exposed, and the as-received surface. Surface chemical analysis by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy showed the air-exposed surface to consist of about 3 nm of Cu2O, while the as-received surface consisted of about 8 nm of Cu2O. The sputter-cleaned surface contained less than one monolayer (0.3 nm) of Cu2O. Spreading experiments utilizing a linear temperature ramp show that pure tin solder spreads readily on oxidized copper surfaces at elevated temperatures. The initiation temperature for rapid tin spreading on the as-received copper surface was 325 °C. Decreasing the thickness of the oxide on the surface lowered the observed temperature for the initiation of spreading and increased the rate of spreading. On the sputter-cleaned copper surface, rapid solder spreading was observed immediately upon melting of the solder.

Spreading-vanishing dichotomy in a diffusive logistic model with a free boundary, II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yihong; Guo, Zongming

We study the diffusive logistic equation with a free boundary in higher space dimensions and heterogeneous environment. Such a model may be used to describe the spreading of a new or invasive species, with the free boundary representing the expanding front. For simplicity, we assume that the environment and the solution are radially symmetric. In the special case of one space dimension and homogeneous environment, this free boundary problem was investigated in Du and Lin (2010) [10]. We prove that the spreading-vanishing dichotomy established in Du and Lin (2010) [10] still holds in the more general and ecologically realistic setting considered here. Moreover, when spreading occurs, we obtain best possible upper and lower bounds for the spreading speed of the expanding front. When the environment is asymptotically homogeneous at infinity, these two bounds coincide. Our results indicate that the asymptotic spreading speed determined by this model does not depend on the spatial dimension.

Infections on the move: how transient phases of host movement influence disease spread

PubMed Central

Fenton, A.; Dell, A. I.

2017-01-01

Animal movement impacts the spread of human and wildlife diseases, and there is significant interest in understanding the role of migrations, biological invasions and other wildlife movements in spatial infection dynamics. However, the influence of processes acting on infections during transient phases of host movement is poorly understood. We propose a conceptual framework that explicitly considers infection dynamics during transient phases of host movement to better predict infection spread through spatial host networks. Accounting for host transient movement captures key processes that occur while hosts move between locations, which together determine the rate at which hosts spread infections through networks. We review theoretical and empirical studies of host movement and infection spread, highlighting the multiple factors that impact the infection status of hosts. We then outline characteristics of hosts, parasites and the environment that influence these dynamics. Recent technological advances provide disease ecologists unprecedented ability to track the fine-scale movement of organisms. These, in conjunction with experimental testing of the factors driving infection dynamics during host movement, can inform models of infection spread based on constituent biological processes. PMID:29263283

Spatial and temporal variation in endotoxin and PM10 concentrations in ambient air in a livestock dense area.

PubMed

de Rooij, Myrna M T; Heederik, Dick J J; Borlée, Floor; Hoek, Gerard; Wouters, Inge M

2017-02-01

Several studies have reported associations between farming and respiratory health in neighboring residents. Health effects are possibly linked to fine dust and endotoxin emissions from livestock farms. Little is known about levels of these air pollutants in ambient air in livestock dense areas. We aimed to explore temporal and spatial variation of PM10 and endotoxin concentrations, and the association with livestock-related spatial and meteorological temporal determinants. From March till September 2011, one week average PM10 samples were collected using Harvard Impactors at eight sites (residential gardens) representing a variety of nearby livestock-related characteristics. A background site was included in the study area, situated at least 500m away from the nearest farm. PM10 mass was determined by gravimetric analysis and endotoxin level by means of Limulus-Amebocyte-Lysate assay. Data were analyzed using mixed models. The range between sites of geometric mean concentrations was for PM10 19.8-22.3µg/m 3 and for endotoxin 0.46-0.66EU/m 3 . PM10 concentrations and spatial variation were very similar for all sites, while endotoxin concentrations displayed a more variable pattern over time with larger differences between sites. Nonetheless, the temporal pattern at the background location was highly comparable to the sites mean temporal pattern both for PM10 and endotoxin (Pearson correlation: 0.92, 0.62). Spatial variation was larger for endotoxin than for PM10 (within/between site variance ratio: 0.63, 2.03). Spatial livestock-related characteristics of the surroundings were more strongly related to endotoxin concentrations, while temporal determinants were more strongly related to PM10 concentrations. The effect of local livestock-related sources on PM10 concentration was limited in this study carried out in a livestock dense area. The effect on endotoxin concentrations was more profound. To gain more insight in the effect of livestock-related sources on ambient

Effect of Longitudinal Oscillations on Downward Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nayagam, Vedha; Sacksteder, Kurt

2013-01-01

Downward flame spread rates over vertically vibrated thin fuel samples are measured in air at one atmospheric pressure under normal gravity. Unlike flame spread against forced-convective flows, the present results show that with increasing vibration acceleration the flame spread rate increases before being blown off at high acceleration levels causing flame extinction. A simple scaling analysis seems to explain this phenomenon, which may have important implications to flammability studies including in microgravity environments.

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

PubMed

Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

2016-09-01

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

PAHs and PCBs in an Eastern Mediterranean megacity, Istanbul: Their spatial and temporal distributions, air-soil exchange and toxicological effects.

PubMed

Cetin, Banu; Ozturk, Fatma; Keles, Melek; Yurdakul, Sema

2017-01-01

Istanbul, one of the mega cities in the world located between Asia and Europe, has suffered from severe air pollution problems due to rapid population growth, traffic and industry. Atmospheric levels of PAHs and PCBs were investigated in Istanbul at 22 sampling sites during four different sampling periods using PUF disk passive air samplers and spatial and temporal variations of these chemicals were determined. Soil samples were also taken at the air sampling sites. At all sites, the average ambient air Σ 15 PAH and Σ 41 PCB concentrations were found as 85.6 ± 68.3 ng m -3 and 246 ± 122 pg m -3 , respectively. Phenanthrene and anthracene were the predominant PAHs and low molecular weight congeners dominated the PCBs. The PAH concentrations were higher especially at urban sites close to highways. However, the PCBs showed moderately uniform spatial variations. Except four sites, the PAH concentrations were increased with decreasing temperatures during the sampling period, indicating the contributions of combustion sources for residential heating, while PCB concentrations were mostly increased with the temperature, probably due to enhanced volatilization at higher temperatures from their sources. The results of the Factor Analysis represented the impact of traffic, petroleum, coal/biomass and natural gas combustion and medical waste incineration plants on ambient air concentrations. A similar spatial distribution trend was observed in the soil samples. Fugacity ratio results indicated that the source/sink tendency of soil for PAHs and PCBs depends on their volatility and temperature; soil generally acts as a source for lighter PAHs and PCBs particularly in higher temperatures while atmospheric deposition is a main source for higher molecular weight compounds in local soils. Toxicological effect studies also revealed the severity of air and soil pollution especially in terms of PAHs in Istanbul. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Turing-like structures in a functional model of cortical spreading depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verisokin, A. Yu.; Verveyko, D. V.; Postnov, D. E.

2017-12-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) along with migraine waves and spreading depolarization events with stroke or injures are the front-line examples of extreme physiological behaviors of the brain cortex which manifest themselves via the onset and spreading of localized areas of neuronal hyperactivity followed by their depression. While much is known about the physiological pathways involved, the dynamical mechanisms of the formation and evolution of complex spatiotemporal patterns during CSD are still poorly understood, in spite of the number of modeling studies that have been already performed. Recently we have proposed a relatively simple mathematical model of cortical spreading depression which counts the effects of neurovascular coupling and cerebral blood flow redistribution during CSD. In the present study, we address the main dynamical consequences of newly included pathways, namely, the changes in the formation and propagation speed of the CSD front and the pattern formation features in two dimensions. Our most notable finding is that the combination of vascular-mediated spatial coupling with local regulatory mechanisms results in the formation of stationary Turing-like patterns during a CSD event.

Three-Dimensional Upward Flame Spreading in Partial-Gravity Buoyant Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sacksteder, Kurt R.; Feier, Ioan I.; Shih, Hsin-Yi; T'ien, James S.

2001-01-01

Reduced-gravity environments have been used to establish low-speed, purely forced flows for both opposed- and concurrent-flow flame spread studies. Altenkirch's group obtained spacebased experimental results and developed unsteady, two-dimensional numerical simulations of opposed-flow flame spread including gas-phase radiation, primarily away from the flammability limit for thin fuels, but including observations of thick fuel quenching in quiescent environments. T'ien's group contributed some early flame spreading results for thin fuels both in opposed flow and concurrent flow regimes, with more focus on near-limit conditions. T'ien's group also developed two- and three-dimensional numerical simulations of concurrent-flow flame spread incorporating gas-phase radiative models, including predictions of a radiatively-induced quenching limit reached in very low-speed air flows. Radiative quenching has been subsequently observed in other studies of combustion in very low-speed flows including other flame spread investigations, droplet combustion and homogeneous diffusion flames, and is the subject of several contemporary studies reported in this workshop. Using NASA aircraft flying partial-gravity "parabolic" trajectories, flame spreading in purely buoyant, opposed-flow (downward burning) has been studied. These results indicated increases in flame spread rates and enhanced flammability (lower limiting atmospheric oxygen content) as gravity levels were reduced from normal Earth gravity, and were consistent with earlier data obtained by Altenkirch using a centrifuge. In this work, experimental results and a three-dimensional numerical simulation of upward flame spreading in variable partial-gravity environments were obtained including some effects of reduced pressure and variable sample width. The simulation provides physical insight for interpreting the experimental results and shows the intrinsic 3-D nature of buoyant, upward flame spreading. This study is intended to

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

PubMed Central

Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-05-01

Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In this study, 16 simulations are conducted using WRF-Fire to examine the sensitivity of resolving VDLS to spatial resolution and atmosphere-fire coupling within the WRF-Fire model framework. The horizontal grid spacing is varied between 25 and 90 m, and the two-way atmosphere-fire coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolution, the atmosphere-fire coupling increases the peak uphill and lateral spread rate by a factor of up to 2.7 and 9.5. The enhancement of the uphill and lateral spread rate diminishes at coarser spatial resolution, and VDLS is not modelled for a horizontal grid spacing of 90 m. The laterally spreading fire fronts become the dominant contributors of the extreme pyro-convection. The resolved fire-induced vortices responsible for driving the lateral spread in the coupled simulations have non-zero vorticity along each unit vector direction, and develop due to an interaction between the background winds and vertical return circulations generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to reproduce VDLS within the current WRF-Fire model framework.

Changing the role of the air traffic controller: how will free flight affect memory for spatial events?

PubMed

Nicholls, Alastair P; Melia, Anne; Farmer, Eric W; Shaw, Gareth; Milne, Tracey; Stedmon, Alex; Sharples, Sarah; Cox, Gemma

2007-07-01

At present, air traffic controllers (ATCOs) exercise strict control over routing authority for aircraft movement in airspace. The onset of a free flight environment, however, may well result in a dramatic change to airspace jurisdictions, with aircraft movements for the large part being governed by aircrew, not ATCOs. The present study examined the impact of such changes on spatial memory for recent and non-recent locations of aircraft represented on a visual display. The experiment contrasted present conditions, in which permission for manoeuvres is granted by ATCOs, with potential free flight conditions, in which aircrew undertake deviations without explicit approval from ATCOs. Results indicated that the ATCO role adopted by participants impacted differently on short-term and long-term spatial representations of aircraft manoeuvres. Although informing participants of impending deviations has beneficial effects on spatial representations in the short term, long-term representations of spatial events are affected deleteriously by the presentation of subsequent information pertaining to other aircraft. This study suggests strongly that recognition of the perceptual and cognitive consequences of changing to a free flight environment is crucial if air safety is not to be jeopardized.

NASA AIRS Instrument Sees Spread of Pollution from Western Wildfires

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-08-27

This frame from a movie was produced with data from NASA Aqua spacecraft showing the spread of carbon monoxide pollution across North America from fires in the Western U.S., including the Beaver Creek Fire in Idaho and the Rim Fire in California.

High-Spatial-Resolution OH PLIF Visualization in a Cavity-Stabilized Ethylene-Air Turbulent Flame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geipel, Clayton M.; Rockwell, Robert D.; Chelliah, Harsha K.; Cutler, Andrew D.; Spelker, Christopher A.; Hashem, Zeid; Danehy, Paul M.

2017-01-01

High-spatial-resolution OH planar laser-induced fluorescence was measured for a premixed ethylene-air turbulent flame in an electrically-heated Mach 2 continuous-flow facility (University of Virginia Supersonic Combustion Facility, Configuration E.) The facility comprised a Mach 2 nozzle, an isolator with flush-wall fuel injectors, a combustor with optical access, and an extender. The flame was anchored at a cavity flameholder with a backward-facing step of height 9 mm. The temperature-insensitive Q1(8) transition of OH was excited using laser light of wavelength 283.55 nm. A spatial filter was used to create a laser sheet approximately 25 microns thick based on full-width at half maximum (FWHM). Extension tubes increased the magnification of an intensified camera system, achieving in-plane resolution of 40 microns based on a 50% modulation transfer function (MTF). The facility was tested with total temperature 1200 K, total pressure 300 kPa, local fuel/air equivalence ratios of approximately 0.4, and local Mach number of approximately 0.73 in the combustor. A test case with reduced total temperature and another with reduced equivalence ratio were also tested. PLIF images were acquired along a streamwise plane bisecting the cavity flameholder, from the backward facing step to 120 mm downstream of the step. The smallest observed features in the flow had width of approximately 110 microns. Flame surface density was calculated for OH PLIF images.

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Wave directional spreading from point field measurements

PubMed Central

Venugopal, V.; Borthwick, A. G. L.

2017-01-01

Ocean waves have multidirectional components. Most wave measurements are taken at a single point, and so fail to capture information about the relative directions of the wave components directly. Conventional means of directional estimation require a minimum of three concurrent time series of measurements at different spatial locations in order to derive information on local directional wave spreading. Here, the relationship between wave nonlinearity and directionality is utilized to estimate local spreading without the need for multiple concurrent measurements, following Adcock & Taylor (Adcock & Taylor 2009 Proc. R. Soc. A 465, 3361–3381. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0031)), with the assumption that directional spreading is frequency independent. The method is applied to measurements recorded at the North Alwyn platform in the northern North Sea, and the results compared against estimates of wave spreading by conventional measurement methods and hindcast data. Records containing freak waves were excluded. It is found that the method provides accurate estimates of wave spreading over a range of conditions experienced at North Alwyn, despite the noisy chaotic signals that characterize such ocean wave data. The results provide further confirmation that Adcock and Taylor's method is applicable to metocean data and has considerable future promise as a technique to recover estimates of wave spreading from single point wave measurement devices. PMID:28484326

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the MJO in AIRS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Baijun; Waliser, Duane E.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.; Yung, Yuk L.; Wang, Bin

2006-01-01

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800-250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Carbon Isotopic Signal of Leaf Wax Aerosols in Continental Air Masses: Linkages with Ecosystem Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, J.; Conte, M. H.

2006-12-01

Temporal and spatial variations in the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be used to estimate the relative magnitudes of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. An important model parameter is the terrestrial photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation of CO2 (Δ), yet estimating Δ over the large spatial scales required by models remains problematic. Epiculticular leaf waxes appear to closely reflect the plant's carbon isotopic discrimination; therefore, the ablated wax aerosols present in well-mixed continental air masses may be used as a proxy to estimate the magnitude of Δ integrated over large (subcontinental) spatial scales. Over the last several years, we have been conducting time-series studies of wax aerosol molecular and isotopic composition at strategically located sites (Maine, northern Alaska, Florida, Bermuda, Barbados) which receive continental air masses passing over major terrestrial biomes (northern temperate/ecotonal boreal forests, tundra, southern US pine/hardwood forests, North American and north African). In this presentation, we describe and contrast patterns of wax aerosol-derived estimates of Δ at these sites. In North American air masses, estimates of Δ range from 14.5-20.5 using the concentration-weighted average δ13C of wax n-acids and from 13.5-19.5 for the wax n-alcohols. Seasonal trends observed in the Florida (southern US) and Bermuda samples (mixed North American air masses) indicate maximum discrimination in early spring and minimum discrimination during the summer dry season. In northern US and high latitude air masses, seasonal trends are less pronounced but in general temporally offset with highest discrimination occurring during late summer. At Barbados, which is dominated by north African air masses passing over regions largely comprised of arid C4 grasslands, estimated Δ for the wax n-acids is significantly lower (14.0-15.5 per mil), consistent with a higher predominance of C4

Identifying the Threshold of Dominant Controls on Fire Spread in a Boreal Forest Landscape of Northeast China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.

2013-01-01

The relative importance of fuel, topography, and weather on fire spread varies at different spatial scales, but how the relative importance of these controls respond to changing spatial scales is poorly understood. We designed a “moving window” resampling technique that allowed us to quantify the relative importance of controls on fire spread at continuous spatial scales using boosted regression trees methods. This quantification allowed us to identify the threshold value for fire size at which the dominant control switches from fuel at small sizes to weather at large sizes. Topography had a fluctuating effect on fire spread across the spatial scales, explaining 20–30% of relative importance. With increasing fire size, the dominant control switched from bottom-up controls (fuel and topography) to top-down controls (weather). Our analysis suggested that there is a threshold for fire size, above which fires are driven primarily by weather and more likely lead to larger fire size. We suggest that this threshold, which may be ecosystem-specific, can be identified using our “moving window” resampling technique. Although the threshold derived from this analytical method may rely heavily on the sampling technique, our study introduced an easily implemented approach to identify scale thresholds in wildfire regimes. PMID:23383247

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties.

PubMed

Sun, Gui-Quan; Jusup, Marko; Jin, Zhen; Wang, Yi; Wang, Zhen

2016-12-01

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics. PMID:25923411

Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

PubMed

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-04-29

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

Using a spatially explicit analysis model to evaluate spatial variation of corn yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial irrigation of agricultural crops using site-specific variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems is beginning to have wide-spread acceptance. However, optimizing the management of these VRI systems to conserve natural resources and increase profitability requires an understanding of the spatial ...

Web-based GIS: the vector-borne disease airline importation risk (VBD-AIR) tool

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Over the past century, the size and complexity of the air travel network has increased dramatically. Nowadays, there are 29.6 million scheduled flights per year and around 2.7 billion passengers are transported annually. The rapid expansion of the network increasingly connects regions of endemic vector-borne disease with the rest of the world, resulting in challenges to health systems worldwide in terms of vector-borne pathogen importation and disease vector invasion events. Here we describe the development of a user-friendly Web-based GIS tool: the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk Tool (VBD-AIR), to help better define the roles of airports and airlines in the transmission and spread of vector-borne diseases. Methods Spatial datasets on modeled global disease and vector distributions, as well as climatic and air network traffic data were assembled. These were combined to derive relative risk metrics via air travel for imported infections, imported vectors and onward transmission, and incorporated into a three-tier server architecture in a Model-View-Controller framework with distributed GIS components. A user-friendly web-portal was built that enables dynamic querying of the spatial databases to provide relevant information. Results The VBD-AIR tool constructed enables the user to explore the interrelationships among modeled global distributions of vector-borne infectious diseases (malaria. dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya) and international air service routes to quantify seasonally changing risks of vector and vector-borne disease importation and spread by air travel, forming an evidence base to help plan mitigation strategies. The VBD-AIR tool is available at http://www.vbd-air.com. Conclusions VBD-AIR supports a data flow that generates analytical results from disparate but complementary datasets into an organized cartographical presentation on a web map for the assessment of vector-borne disease movements on the air travel network

Web-based GIS: the vector-borne disease airline importation risk (VBD-AIR) tool.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Das, Anirrudha; Qiu, Youliang; Tatem, Andrew J

2012-08-14

Over the past century, the size and complexity of the air travel network has increased dramatically. Nowadays, there are 29.6 million scheduled flights per year and around 2.7 billion passengers are transported annually. The rapid expansion of the network increasingly connects regions of endemic vector-borne disease with the rest of the world, resulting in challenges to health systems worldwide in terms of vector-borne pathogen importation and disease vector invasion events. Here we describe the development of a user-friendly Web-based GIS tool: the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk Tool (VBD-AIR), to help better define the roles of airports and airlines in the transmission and spread of vector-borne diseases. Spatial datasets on modeled global disease and vector distributions, as well as climatic and air network traffic data were assembled. These were combined to derive relative risk metrics via air travel for imported infections, imported vectors and onward transmission, and incorporated into a three-tier server architecture in a Model-View-Controller framework with distributed GIS components. A user-friendly web-portal was built that enables dynamic querying of the spatial databases to provide relevant information. The VBD-AIR tool constructed enables the user to explore the interrelationships among modeled global distributions of vector-borne infectious diseases (malaria. dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya) and international air service routes to quantify seasonally changing risks of vector and vector-borne disease importation and spread by air travel, forming an evidence base to help plan mitigation strategies. The VBD-AIR tool is available at http://www.vbd-air.com. VBD-AIR supports a data flow that generates analytical results from disparate but complementary datasets into an organized cartographical presentation on a web map for the assessment of vector-borne disease movements on the air travel network. The framework built provides a flexible

Spatial and temporal trends from an air quality sensor network near a heavily trafficked intersection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, P.; Vo, D.; Giossi, C.; George, L.

2017-12-01

With the world-wide increase in urbanization and the increasing usage of combustion vehicles in urban areas, traffic-related air pollution is a growing health hazard. However, there are limited studies that examine the spatial and temporal impacts of traffic-related pollutants within cities. In particular, there are few studies that look at traffic management and its potential for pollution mitigation. In a previous study we examined roadway pollution and traffic parameters with one roadway station instrumented with standard measurement instruments. With the advent of low-cost air pollution sensors, we have expanded our work by observing multiple sites within a neighborhood to understand spatial and temporal exposures. We have deployed a high-density sensor network around urban arterial corridors in SE Portland, Oregon. This network consisted of ten nodes measuring CO, NO, NO2 and O3, and ten nodes measuring CO, CO2, VOC and PM2.5. The co-location of standard measurement instruments provided insight towards the utility of our low-cost sensor network, as the different nodes varied in cost, and potentially in quality. We have identified near-real-time temporal trends and local-scale spatial patterns during the summer of 2017. Meteorological and traffic data were included to further characterize these patterns, exploring the potential for pollution mitigation.

Flame Spread and Group-Combustion Excitation in Randomly Distributed Droplet Clouds with Low-Volatility Fuel near the Excitation Limit: a Percolation Approach Based on Flame-Spread Characteristics in Microgravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikami, Masato; Saputro, Herman; Seo, Takehiko; Oyagi, Hiroshi

2018-03-01

Stable operation of liquid-fueled combustors requires the group combustion of fuel spray. Our study employs a percolation approach to describe unsteady group-combustion excitation based on findings obtained from microgravity experiments on the flame spread of fuel droplets. We focus on droplet clouds distributed randomly in three-dimensional square lattices with a low-volatility fuel, such as n-decane in room-temperature air, where the pre-vaporization effect is negligible. We also focus on the flame spread in dilute droplet clouds near the group-combustion-excitation limit, where the droplet interactive effect is assumed negligible. The results show that the occurrence probability of group combustion sharply decreases with the increase in mean droplet spacing around a specific value, which is termed the critical mean droplet spacing. If the lattice size is at smallest about ten times as large as the flame-spread limit distance, the flame-spread characteristics are similar to those over an infinitely large cluster. The number density of unburned droplets remaining after completion of burning attained maximum around the critical mean droplet spacing. Therefore, the critical mean droplet spacing is a good index for stable combustion and unburned hydrocarbon. In the critical condition, the flame spreads through complicated paths, and thus the characteristic time scale of flame spread over droplet clouds has a very large value. The overall flame-spread rate of randomly distributed droplet clouds is almost the same as the flame-spread rate of a linear droplet array except over the flame-spread limit.

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

PubMed Central

Datta, Samik; Bull, James C.; Budge, Giles E.; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction. PMID:24026473

Long-term persistence of the spatial organization of plume lifetime in turbulent air avalanches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouzeix, C.; Le Mouël, J.; Perrier, F.; Shnirman, M. G.

2005-12-01

Temperature measurements have been performed in the vertical access pit of an underground quarry in winter, when outside temperature is low and induce turbulent avalanches of cold air in the pit. The measured time series are studied with a non-linear method based on absolute differences, which has been recently proposed as an adequate tool in the case of modulated jitter: a high-frequency signal multiplied by a long-term component (for example the sunspot number). The thermal fluctuations associated with the turbulent plumes are proved to offer an almost perfect realization of a modulated jitter. The lifetime, estimated from the method as a function of time and position in the pit, is of the order of 10 to 25 minutes, remarkably constant in time for each sensor and independent of the forcing. A significant and persistent spatial variation is also observed, indicating a long-term intrinsic organization of the turbulent air flow in the pit. Such stable organization may be a universal feature of chaotic phenomena. Furthermore, the properties of turbulent air avalanches and of sunspots determined by this method appear similar. This may be due to a common underlying physical mechanism. Modulated jitter, which are probably present in numerous natural processes, can be studied using the method presented here.

Landscape Connectivity Shapes the Spread Pattern of the Rice Water Weevil: A Case Study from Zhejiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhengjun; Wu, Jianguo; Shang, Hanwu; Cheng, Jiaan

2011-02-01

The spread of invasive species is a complex ecological process that is affected by both the biology of the species and the spatial structure of a landscape. The rice water weevil ( Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel), a notorious crop pest found in many parts of the world, is one of the most devastating invasive species in China, and has caused enormous economic losses and ecological damage. Little is known, however, as to how habitat and landscape features affect the spatial spread of this pest. Thus, the main goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between the observed spread pattern of L. oryzophilus and landscape structural factors in Zhejiang Province, China between 1993 and 2001. We quantified the invasive spread of the weevil in terms of both the proportion of infected area and spread distance each year as well as landscape structure and connectivity of rice paddies with landscape metrics. Our results showed that the spread of L. oryzophilus took place primarily in the southwest-northeast direction along coastal areas at a speed of about 36 km per year. The composition and spatial arrangement of landscape elements were key determinants of this unique spread pattern. In particular, the connectivity of early rice paddies was crucial for the invasive spread while other factors such as meteorological and geographical conditions may also have been relevant. To control the spread of the pest, we propose four management measures: (1) to implement a landscape-level planning scheme of cropping systems to minimize habitat area and connectivity for the pest, (2) to reduce the source populations at a local scale using integrated control methods, (3) to monitor and report invasive spread in a timely manner, and (4) to strengthen the quarantine system. To be most effective, all four management measures need to be implemented together through an integrated, multi-scaled approach.

Quantitative evidence of an intrinsic luminosity spread in the Orion nebula cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reggiani, M.; Robberto, M.; Da Rio, N.; Meyer, M. R.; Soderblom, D. R.; Ricci, L.

2011-10-01

Aims: We study the distribution of stellar ages in the Orion nebula cluster (ONC) using accurate HST photometry taken from HST Treasury Program observations of the ONC utilizing the cluster distance estimated by Menten and collaborators. We investigate whether there is an intrinsic age spread in the region and whether the age depends on the spatial distribution. Methods: We estimate the extinction and accretion luminosity towards each source by performing synthetic photometry on an empirical calibration of atmospheric models using the package Chorizos of Maiz-Apellaniz. The position of the sources in the HR-diagram is compared with different theoretical isochrones to estimate the mean cluster age and age dispersion. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we quantify the amount of intrinsic age spread in the region, taking into account uncertainties in the distance, spectral type, extinction, unresolved binaries, accretion, and photometric variability. Results: According to the evolutionary models of Siess and collaborators, the mean age of the Cluster is 2.2 Myr with a scatter of few Myr. With Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the observed age spread is inconsistent with that of a coeval stellar population, but in agreement with a star formation activity between 1.5 and 3.5 Myr. We also observe some evidence that ages depends on the spatial distribution.

Remote sensing to detect the movement of wheat curl mites through the spatial spread of virus symptoms, and identification of thrips as predators of wheat curl mites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stilwell, Abby R.

The wheat curl mite (WCM), Aceria tosichella Keifer, transmits three viruses to winter wheat: wheat streak mosaic virus, High Plains virus, and Triticum mosaic virus. This virus complex causes yellowing of the foliage and stunting of plants. WCMs disperse by wind, and an increased understanding of mite movement and subsequent virus spread is necessary in determining the risk of serious virus infections in winter wheat. These risk parameters will help growers make better decisions regarding WCM management. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the capabilities of remote sensing to identify virus infected plants and to establish the potential of using remote sensing to track virus spread and consequently, mite movement. Although the WCM is small and very hard to track, the viruses it vectors produce symptoms that can be detected with remote sensing. Field plots of simulated volunteer wheat were established between 2006 and 2009, infested with WCMs, and spread mites and virus into adjacent winter wheat. The virus gradients created by WCM movement allowed for the measurement of mite movement potential with both proximal and aerial remote sensing instruments. The ability to detect WCM-vectored viruses with remote sensing was investigated by comparing vegetation indices calculated from proximal remote sensing data to ground truth data obtained in the field. Of the ten vegetation indices tested, the red edge position (REP) index had the best relationship with ground truth data. The spatial spread of virus from WCM source plots was modeled with cokriging. Virus symptoms predicted by cokriging occurred in an oval pattern displaced to the southeast. Data from the spatial spread in small plots of this study were used to estimate the potential sphere of influence for volunteer wheat fields. The impact of thrips on WCM populations was investigated by a series of greenhouse, field, and observational studies. WCM populations in winter wheat increased more slowly when

Gaseous and Freely-Dissolved PCBs in the Lower Great Lakes Based on Passive Sampling: Spatial Trends and Air-Water Exchange.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Wang, Siyao; McDonough, Carrie A; Khairy, Mohammed; Muir, Derek C G; Helm, Paul A; Lohmann, Rainer

2016-05-17

Polyethylene passive sampling was performed to quantify gaseous and freely dissolved polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the air and water of Lakes Erie and Ontario during 2011-2012. In view of differing physical characteristics and the impacts of historical contamination by PCBs within these lakes, spatial variation of PCB concentrations and air-water exchange across these lakes may be expected. Both lakes displayed statistically similar aqueous and atmospheric PCB concentrations. Total aqueous concentrations of 29 PCBs ranged from 1.5 pg L(-1) in the open lake of Lake Erie (site E02) in 2011 spring to 105 pg L(-1) in Niagara (site On05) in 2012 summer, while total atmospheric concentrations were 7.7-634 pg m(-3) across both lakes. A west-to-east gradient was observed for aqueous PCBs in Lake Erie. River discharge and localized influences (e.g., sediment resuspension and regional alongshore transport) likely dominated spatial trends of aqueous PCBs in both lakes. Air-water exchange fluxes of Σ7PCBs ranged from -2.4 (±1.9) ng m(-2) day(-1) (deposition) in Sheffield (site E03) to 9.0 (±3.1) ng m(-2) day(-1) (volatilization) in Niagara (site On05). Net volatilization of PCBs was the primary trend across most sites and periods. Almost half of variation in air-water exchange fluxes was attributed to the difference in aqueous concentrations of PCBs. Uncertainty analysis in fugacity ratios and mass fluxes in air-water exchange of PCBs indicated that PCBs have reached or approached equilibrium only at the eastern Lake Erie and along the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario sites, where air-water exchange fluxes dominated atmospheric concentrations.

Unifying models of dialect spread and extinction using surface tension dynamics

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We provide a unified mathematical explanation of two classical forms of spatial linguistic spread. The wave model describes the radiation of linguistic change outwards from a central focus. Changes can also jump between population centres in a process known as hierarchical diffusion. It has recently been proposed that the spatial evolution of dialects can be understood using surface tension at linguistic boundaries. Here we show that the inclusion of long-range interactions in the surface tension model generates both wave-like spread, and hierarchical diffusion, and that it is surface tension that is the dominant effect in deciding the stable distribution of dialect patterns. We generalize the model to allow population mixing which can induce shrinkage of linguistic domains, or destroy dialect regions from within. PMID:29410847

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS FROM A COMMUNITY-BASED AIR TOXICS MONITORING NETWORK IN DEER PARK, TEXAS, USA

EPA Science Inventory

This RARE Project with EPA Region 6 was a spatial analysis study of select volatile organic compounds (VOC) collected using passive air monitors at outdoor residential locations in the Deer Park, Texas area near the Houston Ship Channel. Correlation analysis of VOC species confi...

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Total Mortality in 120 Cities of China, 2012-2013.

PubMed

Liu, Longjian; Yang, Xuan; Liu, Hui; Wang, Mingquan; Welles, Seth; Márquez, Shannon; Frank, Arthur; Haas, Charles N

2016-01-01

China has had a rapid increase in its economy over the past three decades. However, the economic boom came at a certain cost of depleting air quality. In the study, we aimed to examine the burden of air pollution and its association with climatic factors and health outcomes using data from Chinese national and city-level air quality and public health surveillance systems. City-level daily air pollution index (API, a sum weighted index of SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and Ozone) in 120 cities in 2012 and 2013, and its association with climate factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and panel fixed models. City-level ecological association between annual average API and total mortality were examined using univariate and partial correlation analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by taking the consideration of time-lag effect between exposures and outcomes. The results show that among the 120 cities, annual average API significantly increased from 2012 to 2013 (65.05 vs. 75.99, p < 0.0001). The highest average API was in winter, and the lowest in summer. A significantly spatial clustering of elevated API was observed, with the highest API in northwest China in 2012 and with the highest in east China in 2013. In 2012, 5 (4%) of the 120 cities had ≥60 days with API >100 (defined as "slightly polluted"), however, it increased to 21 cities (18%) that experienced API >100 for ≥60 days in 2013. Furthermore, 16 cities (13%) in 2012 and 35 (29%) in 2013 experienced a maximum API >300 (defined as "severely polluted"). API was negatively and significantly correlated with heat index, precipitation, and sunshine hours, but positively with air pressure. Cities with higher API concentrations had significantly higher total mortality rates than those with lower API. About a 4-7% of the variation in total mortality could be explained by the difference in API across the nation. In conclusion, the study highlights an

Spatial variations in estimated chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution in working populations: A simulation

PubMed Central

Setton, Eleanor M; Keller, C Peter; Cloutier-Fisher, Denise; Hystad, Perry W

2008-01-01

Background Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM) which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other) is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources) for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs. Results Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were negligible, based on the

Does the air condition system in busses spread allergic fungi into driver space?

PubMed

Sowiak, Małgorzata; Kozajda, Anna; Jeżak, Karolina; Szadkowska-Stańczyk, Irena

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to establish whether the air-conditioning system in buses constitutes an additional source of indoor air contamination with fungi, and whether or not the fungi concentration depends on the period from the last disinfection of the system, combined with replacement of the cabin dust particle filter. The air samples to fungi analysis using impact method were taken in 30 buses (20 with an air-conditioning system, ACS; 10 with a ventilation system, VS) in two series: 1 and 22 weeks after cabin filter replacement and disinfection of the air-conditioning system. During one test in each bus were taken two samples: before the air-conditioning or ventilation system switched on and 6 min after operating of these systems. The atmospheric air was the external background (EB). After 1 week of use of the system, the fungi concentrations before starting of the ACS and VS system were 527.8 and 1053.0 cfu/m 3 , respectively, and after 22 weeks the concentrations were 351.9 and 1069.6 cfu/m 3 , respectively. While in the sample after 6 min of ACS and VS system operating, the fungi concentration after 1 week of use was 127.6 and 233.7 cfu/m 3 , respectively, and after 22 weeks it was 113.3 and 324.9 cfu/m 3 , respectively. Results do not provide strong evidence that air-conditioning system is an additional source of indoor air contamination with fungi. A longer operation of the system promoted increase of fungi concentration in air-conditioned buses only.

Temporal and spatial variation in allocating annual traffic activity across an urban region and implications for air quality assessments

PubMed Central

Batterman, Stuart

2015-01-01

Patterns of traffic activity, including changes in the volume and speed of vehicles, vary over time and across urban areas and can substantially affect vehicle emissions of air pollutants. Time-resolved activity at the street scale typically is derived using temporal allocation factors (TAFs) that allow the development of emissions inventories needed to predict concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants. This study examines the spatial and temporal variation of TAFs, and characterizes prediction errors resulting from their use. Methods are presented to estimate TAFs and their spatial and temporal variability and used to analyze total, commercial and non-commercial traffic in the Detroit, Michigan, U.S. metropolitan area. The variability of total volume estimates, quantified by the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the percentage departure from expected hourly volume, was 21, 33, 24 and 33% for weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, respectively. Prediction errors mostly resulted from hour-to-hour variability on weekdays and Saturdays, and from day-to-day variability on Sundays and holidays. Spatial variability was limited across the study roads, most of which were large freeways. Commercial traffic had different temporal patterns and greater variability than noncommercial vehicle traffic, e.g., the weekday variability of hourly commercial volume was 28%. The results indicate that TAFs for a metropolitan region can provide reasonably accurate estimates of hourly vehicle volume on major roads. While vehicle volume is only one of many factors that govern on-road emission rates, air quality analyses would be strengthened by incorporating information regarding the uncertainty and variability of traffic activity. PMID:26688671

Towards spatially constrained gust models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bos, René; Bierbooms, Wim; van Bussel, Gerard

2014-06-01

With the trend of moving towards 10-20 MW turbines, rotor diameters are growing beyond the size of the largest turbulent structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. As a consequence, the fully uniform transients that are commonly used to predict extreme gust loads are losing their connection to reality and may lead to gross overdimensioning. More suiting would be to represent gusts by advecting air parcels and posing certain physical constraints on size and position. However, this would introduce several new degrees of freedom that significantly increase the computational burden of extreme load prediction. In an attempt to elaborate on the costs and benefits of such an approach, load calculations were done on the DTU 10 MW reference turbine where a single uniform gust shape was given various spatial dimensions with the transverse wavelength ranging up to twice the rotor diameter (357 m). The resulting loads displayed a very high spread, but remained well under the level of a uniform gust. Moving towards spatially constrained gust models would therefore yield far less conservative, though more realistic predictions at the cost of higher computation time.

Dimensionality reduction in epidemic spreading models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frasca, M.; Rizzo, A.; Gallo, L.; Fortuna, L.; Porfiri, M.

2015-09-01

Complex dynamical systems often exhibit collective dynamics that are well described by a reduced set of key variables in a low-dimensional space. Such a low-dimensional description offers a privileged perspective to understand the system behavior across temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to establish low-dimensional representations of large epidemic datasets by using a dimensionality reduction algorithm based on isometric features mapping (ISOMAP). We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data for epidemic spreading in a population of mobile individuals. We find that ISOMAP is successful in embedding high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional manifold, whose topological features are associated with the epidemic outbreak. Across a range of simulation parameters and model instances, we observe that epidemic outbreaks are embedded into a family of closed curves in a three-dimensional space, in which neighboring points pertain to instants that are close in time. The orientation of each curve is unique to a specific outbreak, and the coordinates correlate with the number of infected individuals. A low-dimensional description of epidemic spreading is expected to improve our understanding of the role of individual response on the outbreak dynamics, inform the selection of meaningful global observables, and, possibly, aid in the design of control and quarantine procedures.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Modeling spatial and temporal variability of residential air exchange rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS).

PubMed

Breen, Michael S; Burke, Janet M; Batterman, Stuart A; Vette, Alan F; Godwin, Christopher; Croghan, Carry W; Schultz, Bradley D; Long, Thomas C

2014-11-07

Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. The residential air exchange rate (AER), which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for house-to-house (spatial) and temporal variations of air pollution infiltration. Our goal was to evaluate and apply mechanistic models to predict AERs for 213 homes in the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS), a cohort study of traffic-related air pollution exposures and respiratory effects in asthmatic children living near major roads in Detroit, Michigan. We used a previously developed model (LBL), which predicts AER from meteorology and questionnaire data on building characteristics related to air leakage, and an extended version of this model (LBLX) that includes natural ventilation from open windows. As a critical and novel aspect of our AER modeling approach, we performed a cross validation, which included both parameter estimation (i.e., model calibration) and model evaluation, based on daily AER measurements from a subset of 24 study homes on five consecutive days during two seasons. The measured AER varied between 0.09 and 3.48 h(-1) with a median of 0.64 h(-1). For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 29% (0.19 h‑1) for both the LBL and LBLX models. The LBL and LBLX models predicted 59% and 61% of the variance in the AER, respectively. Daily AER predictions for all 213 homes during the three year study (2010-2012) showed considerable house-to-house variations from building leakage differences, and temporal variations from outdoor temperature and wind speed fluctuations. Using this novel approach, NEXUS will be one of the first epidemiology studies to apply calibrated and

Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruiqi; Wang, Wenxu; Di, Zengru

2017-02-01

Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic spreading dynamics influenced by spatial structure and human dynamics (including both human mobility and human interaction intensity). We propose a systematical model to depict nationwide epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire, which integrates multiple factors, such as human mobility, human interaction intensity, and demographic features. We provide insights to aid in modeling and predicting the epidemic spreading process by data-driven simulation and theoretical analysis, which is otherwise beyond the scope of local evaluation and geometrical views. We show that the requirement that the average local basic reproductive number to be greater than unity is not necessary for outbreaks of epidemics. The observed spreading phenomenon can be roughly explained as a heterogeneous diffusion-reaction process by redefining mobility distance according to the human mobility volume between nodes, which is beyond the geometrical viewpoint. However, the heterogeneity of human dynamics still poses challenges to precise prediction.

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

2011-05-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

Spatial-temporal modeling of the association between air pollution exposure and preterm birth: identifying critical windows of exposure.

PubMed

Warren, Joshua; Fuentes, Montserrat; Herring, Amy; Langlois, Peter

2012-12-01

Exposure to high levels of air pollution during the pregnancy is associated with increased probability of preterm birth (PTB), a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality. New statistical methodology is required to specifically determine when a particular pollutant impacts the PTB outcome, to determine the role of different pollutants, and to characterize the spatial variability in these results. We develop a new Bayesian spatial model for PTB which identifies susceptible windows throughout the pregnancy jointly for multiple pollutants (PM(2.5) , ozone) while allowing these windows to vary continuously across space and time. We geo-code vital record birth data from Texas (2002-2004) and link them with standard pollution monitoring data and a newly introduced EPA product of calibrated air pollution model output. We apply the fully spatial model to a region of 13 counties in eastern Texas consisting of highly urban as well as rural areas. Our results indicate significant signal in the first two trimesters of pregnancy with different pollutants leading to different critical windows. Introducing the spatial aspect uncovers critical windows previously unidentified when space is ignored. A proper inference procedure is introduced to correctly analyze these windows. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Short range spread-spectrum radiolocation system and method

DOEpatents

Smith, Stephen F.

2003-04-29

A short range radiolocation system and associated methods that allow the location of an item, such as equipment, containers, pallets, vehicles, or personnel, within a defined area. A small, battery powered, self-contained tag is provided to an item to be located. The tag includes a spread-spectrum transmitter that transmits a spread-spectrum code and identification information. A plurality of receivers positioned about the area receive signals from a transmitting tag. The position of the tag, and hence the item, is located by triangulation. The system employs three different ranging techniques for providing coarse, intermediate, and fine spatial position resolution. Coarse positioning information is provided by use of direct-sequence code phase transmitted as a spread-spectrum signal. Intermediate positioning information is provided by the use of a difference signal transmitted with the direct-sequence spread-spectrum code. Fine positioning information is provided by use of carrier phase measurements. An algorithm is employed to combine the three data sets to provide accurate location measurements.

Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

2016-11-01

Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

A Flexible Spatio-Temporal Model for Air Pollution with Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Covariates.

PubMed

Lindström, Johan; Szpiro, Adam A; Sampson, Paul D; Oron, Assaf P; Richards, Mark; Larson, Tim V; Sheppard, Lianne

2014-09-01

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system (GIS) covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of NO x in the Los Angeles area during a ten year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated R 2 of approximately 0.7 at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.

Saturation sampling for spatial variation in multiple air pollutants across an inversion-prone metropolitan area of complex terrain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Characterizing intra-urban variation in air quality is important for epidemiological investigation of health outcomes and disparities. To date, however, few studies have been designed to capture spatial variation during select hours of the day, or to examine the roles of meteorology and complex terrain in shaping intra-urban exposure gradients. Methods We designed a spatial saturation monitoring study to target local air pollution sources, and to understand the role of topography and temperature inversions on fine-scale pollution variation by systematically allocating sampling locations across gradients in key local emissions sources (vehicle traffic, industrial facilities) and topography (elevation) in the Pittsburgh area. Street-level integrated samples of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) were collected during morning rush and probable inversion hours (6-11 AM), during summer and winter. We hypothesized that pollution concentrations would be: 1) higher under inversion conditions, 2) exacerbated in lower-elevation areas, and 3) vary by season. Results During July - August 2011 and January - March 2012, we observed wide spatial and seasonal variability in pollution concentrations, exceeding the range measured at regulatory monitors. We identified elevated concentrations of multiple pollutants at lower-elevation sites, and a positive association between inversion frequency and NO2 concentration. We examined temporal adjustment methods for deriving seasonal concentration estimates, and found that the appropriate reference temporal trend differs between pollutants. Conclusions Our time-stratified spatial saturation approach found some evidence for modification of inversion-concentration relationships by topography, and provided useful insights for refining and interpreting GIS-based pollution source indicators for Land Use Regression modeling. PMID:24735818

Saturation sampling for spatial variation in multiple air pollutants across an inversion-prone metropolitan area of complex terrain.

PubMed

Shmool, Jessie Lc; Michanowicz, Drew R; Cambal, Leah; Tunno, Brett; Howell, Jeffery; Gillooly, Sara; Roper, Courtney; Tripathy, Sheila; Chubb, Lauren G; Eisl, Holger M; Gorczynski, John E; Holguin, Fernando E; Shields, Kyra Naumoff; Clougherty, Jane E

2014-04-16

Characterizing intra-urban variation in air quality is important for epidemiological investigation of health outcomes and disparities. To date, however, few studies have been designed to capture spatial variation during select hours of the day, or to examine the roles of meteorology and complex terrain in shaping intra-urban exposure gradients. We designed a spatial saturation monitoring study to target local air pollution sources, and to understand the role of topography and temperature inversions on fine-scale pollution variation by systematically allocating sampling locations across gradients in key local emissions sources (vehicle traffic, industrial facilities) and topography (elevation) in the Pittsburgh area. Street-level integrated samples of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) were collected during morning rush and probable inversion hours (6-11 AM), during summer and winter. We hypothesized that pollution concentrations would be: 1) higher under inversion conditions, 2) exacerbated in lower-elevation areas, and 3) vary by season. During July - August 2011 and January - March 2012, we observed wide spatial and seasonal variability in pollution concentrations, exceeding the range measured at regulatory monitors. We identified elevated concentrations of multiple pollutants at lower-elevation sites, and a positive association between inversion frequency and NO2 concentration. We examined temporal adjustment methods for deriving seasonal concentration estimates, and found that the appropriate reference temporal trend differs between pollutants. Our time-stratified spatial saturation approach found some evidence for modification of inversion-concentration relationships by topography, and provided useful insights for refining and interpreting GIS-based pollution source indicators for Land Use Regression modeling.

Investigation of the spatial variability and possible origins of wind-induced air pressure fluctuations responsible for pressure pumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Manuel; Laemmel, Thomas; Maier, Martin; Zeeman, Matthias; Longdoz, Bernard; Schindler, Dirk

2017-04-01

The exchange of greenhouse gases between the soil and the atmosphere is highly relevant for the climate of the Earth. Recent research suggests that wind-induced air pressure fluctuations can alter the soil gas transport and therefore soil gas efflux significantly. Using a newly developed method, we measured soil gas transport in situ in a well aerated forest soil. Results from these measurements showed that the commonly used soil gas diffusion coefficient is enhanced up to 30% during periods of strong wind-induced air pressure fluctuations. The air pressure fluctuations above the forest floor are only induced at high above-canopy wind speeds (> 5 m s-1) and lie in the frequency range 0.01-0.1 Hz. Moreover, the amplitudes of air pressure fluctuations in this frequency range show a clear quadratic dependence on mean above-canopy wind speed. However, the origin of these wind-induced pressure fluctuations is still unclear. Airflow measurements and high-precision air pressure measurements were conducted at three different vegetation-covered sites (conifer forest, deciduous forest, grassland) to investigate the spatial variability of dominant air pressure fluctuations, their origin and vegetation-dependent characteristics. At the conifer forest site, a vertical profile of air pressure fluctuations was measured and an array consisting of five pressure sensors were installed at the forest floor. At the grassland site, the air pressure measurements were compared with wind observations made by ground-based LIDAR and spatial temperature observations from a fibre-optic sensing network (ScaleX Campaign 2016). Preliminary results show that at all sites the amplitudes of relevant air pressure fluctuations increase with increasing wind speed. Data from the array measurements reveal that there are no time lags between the air pressure signals of different heights, but a time lag existed between the air pressure signals of the sensors distributed laterally on the forest floor

Soil water content spatial pattern estimated by thermal inertia from air-borne sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, Antonio; Basile, Angelo; Esposito, Marco; Menenti, Massimo; Buonanno, Maurizio

2010-05-01

Remote sensing of soil water content from air- or space-borne platforms offer the possibility to provide large spatial coverage and temporal continuity. The water content can be actually monitored in a thin soil layer, usually up to a depth of 0.05m below the soil surface. To the contrary, difficulties arise in the estimation of the water content storage along the soil profile and its spatial (horizontal) distribution, which are closely connected to soil hydraulic properties and their spatial distribution. A promising approach for estimating soil water contents profiles is the integration of remote sensing of surface water content and hydrological modeling. A major goal of the scientific group is to develop a practical and robust procedure for estimating water contents throughout the soil profile from surface water content. As a first step, in this work, we will show some preliminary results from aircraft images analysis and their validation by field campaigns data. The data extracted from the airborne sensors provided the opportunity of retrieving land surface temperatures with a very high spatial resolution. The surface water content pattern, as deduced by the thermal inertia estimations, was compared to the surface water contents maps measured in situ by time domain reflectometry-based probes.

Spatial analysis on China's regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions: emission pattern and regional disparity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Liang; Liang, Hanwei

2014-08-01

China has suffered from serious air pollution and CO2 emission. Challenges of emission reduction policy not only come from technology advancement, but also generate from the fact that, China has pronounced disparity between regions, in geographical and socioeconomic. How to deal with regional disparity is important to achieve the reduction target effectively and efficiently. This research conducts a spatial analysis on the emission patterns of three air pollutants named SO2, NOx and PM2.5, and CO2, in China's 30 provinces, applied with spatial auto-correlation and multi regression modeling. We further analyze the regional disparity and inequity issues with the approach of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Results highlight that: there is evident cluster effect for the regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions. While emission amount increases from western regions to eastern regions, the emission per GDP is in inverse trend. The Lorenz curve shows an even larger unequal distribution of GDP/emissions than GDP/capita in 30 regions. Certain middle and western regions suffers from a higher emission with lower GDP, which reveal the critical issue of emission leakage. Future policy making to address such regional disparity is critical so as to promote the emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.

Estimating spread rates of non-native species: the gypsy moth as a case study

Treesearch

Patrick Tobin; Andrew M. Liebhold; E. Anderson Roberts; Laura M. Blackburn

2015-01-01

Estimating rates of spread and generating projections of future range expansion for invasive alien species is a key process in the development of management guidelines and policy. Critical needs to estimate spread rates include the availability of surveys to characterize the spatial distribution of an invading species and the application of analytical methods to...

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading.

PubMed

Böttcher, L; Woolley-Meza, O; Goles, E; Helbing, D; Herrmann, H J

2016-04-01

We investigate the spread of an infection or other malfunction of cascading nature when a system component can recover only if it remains reachable from a functioning central component. We consider the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, typical of mathematical epidemiology, on a network. Infection spreads from infected to healthy nodes, with the addition that infected nodes can only recover when they remain connected to a predefined central node, through a path that contains only healthy nodes. In this system, clusters of infected nodes will absorb their noninfected interior because no path exists between the central node and encapsulated nodes. This gives rise to the simultaneous infection of multiple nodes. Interestingly, the system converges to only one of two stationary states: either the whole population is healthy or it becomes completely infected. This simultaneous cluster infection can give rise to discontinuous jumps of different sizes in the number of failed nodes. Larger jumps emerge at lower infection rates. The network topology has an important effect on the nature of the transition: we observed hysteresis for networks with dominating local interactions. Our model shows how local spread can abruptly turn uncontrollable when it disrupts connectivity at a larger spatial scale.

A Comparative Study of Three Spatial Interpolation Methodologies for the Analysis of Air Pollution Concentrations in Athens, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiorgi, Despina; Philippopoulos, Kostas; Thanou, Lelouda; Karvounis, Georgios

2010-01-01

Spatial interpolation in air pollution modeling is the procedure for estimating ambient air pollution concentrations at unmonitored locations based on available observations. The selection of the appropriate methodology is based on the nature and the quality of the interpolated data. In this paper, an assessment of three widely used interpolation methodologies is undertaken in order to estimate the errors involved. For this purpose, air quality data from January 2001 to December 2005, from a network of seventeen monitoring stations, operating at the greater area of Athens in Greece, are used. The Nearest Neighbor and the Liner schemes were applied to the mean hourly observations, while the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method to the mean monthly concentrations. The discrepancies of the estimated and measured values are assessed for every station and pollutant, using the correlation coefficient, the scatter diagrams and the statistical residuals. The capability of the methods to estimate air quality data in an area with multiple land-use types and pollution sources, such as Athens, is discussed.

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

2017-05-30

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E.; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.; Vespignani, Alessandro

2017-01-01

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics. PMID:28442561

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Kandula, Sasikiran; Yang, Wan; Shaman, Jeffrey

2018-03-13

Recurrent outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza create a need for forecasts of the geographic spread of this pathogen. Although it is well established that the spatial progression of infection is largely attributable to human mobility, difficulty obtaining real-time information on human movement has limited its incorporation into existing infectious disease forecasting techniques. In this study, we develop and validate an ensemble forecast system for predicting the spatiotemporal spread of influenza that uses readily accessible human mobility data and a metapopulation model. In retrospective state-level forecasts for 35 US states, the system accurately predicts local influenza outbreak onset,-i.e., spatial spread, defined as the week that local incidence increases above a baseline threshold-up to 6 wk in advance of this event. In addition, the metapopulation prediction system forecasts influenza outbreak onset, peak timing, and peak intensity more accurately than isolated location-specific forecasts. The proposed framework could be applied to emergent respiratory viruses and, with appropriate modifications, other infectious diseases.

GeoMedStat: an integrated spatial surveillance system to track air pollution and associated healthcare events.

PubMed

Faruque, Fazlay S; Li, Hui; Williams, Worth B; Waller, Lance A; Brackin, Bruce T; Zhang, Lei; Grimes, Kim A; Finley, Richard W

2014-12-01

Air pollutants, such as particulate matter with a diameter ≤2.5 microns (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), are known to exacerbate asthma and other respiratory diseases. An integrated surveillance system that tracks such air pollutants and associated disease incidence can assist in risk assessment, healthcare preparedness and public awareness. However, the implementation of such an integrated environmental health surveillance system is a challenge due to the disparate sources of many types of data and the implementation becomes even more complicated for a spatial and real-time system due to lack of standardised technological components and data incompatibility. In addition, accessing and utilising health data that are considered as Protected Health Information (PHI) require maintaining stringent protocols, which have to be supported by the system. This paper aims to illustrate the development of a spatial surveillance system (GeoMedStat) that is capable of tracking daily environmental pollutants along with both daily and historical patient encounter data. It utilises satellite data and the groundmonitor data from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the US Environemental Protection Agenecy (EPA), rspectively as inputs estimating air pollutants and is linked to hospital information systems for accessing chief complaints and disease classification codes. The components, developmental methods, functionality of GeoMedStat and its use as a real-time environmental health surveillance system for asthma and other respiratory syndromes in connection with with PM2.5 and ozone are described. It is expected that the framework presented will serve as an example to others developing real-time spatial surveillance systems for pollutants and hospital visits.

Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

2018-02-01

Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

Parameterization of air temperature in high temporal and spatial resolution from a combination of the SEVIRI and MODIS instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakšek, Klemen; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion

Some applications, e.g. from traffic or energy management, require air temperature data in high spatial and temporal resolution at two metres height above the ground ( T2m), sometimes in near-real-time. Thus, a parameterization based on boundary layer physical principles was developed that determines the air temperature from remote sensing data (SEVIRI data aboard the MSG and MODIS data aboard Terra and Aqua satellites). The method consists of two parts. First, a downscaling procedure from the SEVIRI pixel resolution of several kilometres to a one kilometre spatial resolution is performed using a regression analysis between the land surface temperature ( LST) and the normalized differential vegetation index ( NDVI) acquired by the MODIS instrument. Second, the lapse rate between the LST and T2m is removed using an empirical parameterization that requires albedo, down-welling surface short-wave flux, relief characteristics and NDVI data. The method was successfully tested for Slovenia, the French region Franche-Comté and southern Germany for the period from May to December 2005, indicating that the parameterization is valid for Central Europe. This parameterization results in a root mean square deviation RMSD of 2.0 K during the daytime with a bias of -0.01 K and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. This is promising, especially considering the high temporal (30 min) and spatial resolution (1000 m) of the results.

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires

PubMed Central

Fox, Jerome M.; Whitesides, George M.

2015-01-01

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., “wind–fire coupling”—a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind–fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., “blowup fires” in forests). PMID:25675491

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

PubMed

Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

2015-02-24

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

Spatial spread of an epidemic through public transportation systems with a hub.

PubMed

Xu, Fei; Connell McCluskey, C; Cressman, Ross

2013-11-01

This article investigates an epidemic spreading among several locations through a transportation system, with a hub connecting these locations. Public transportation is not only a bridge through which infections travel from one location to another but also a place where infections occur since individuals are typically in close proximity to each other due to the limited space in these systems. A mathematical model is constructed to study the spread of an infectious disease through such systems. A variant of the next generation method is proposed and used to provide upper and lower bounds of the basic reproduction number for the model. Our investigation indicates that increasing transportation efficiency, and improving sanitation and ventilation of the public transportation system decrease the chance of an outbreak occurring. Moreover, discouraging unnecessary travel during an epidemic also decreases the chance of an outbreak. However, reducing travel by infectives while allowing susceptibles to travel may not be enough to avoid an outbreak. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polychlorinated naphthalenes in Great Lakes air: assessing spatial trends and combustion inputs using PUF disk passive air samplers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Harner; Mahiba Shoeib; Todd Gouin

2006-09-01

Passive air samplers made from polyurethane foam (PUF) disks housed in stainless steel chambers were deployed over four seasons during 2002-2003, at 15 sites in the Laurentian Great lakes, to assess spatial and temporal trends of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs). Sampling rates, determined using depuration compounds pre-spiked into the PUF disk prior to exposure, were, on average, 2.9 {+-} 1.1 m{sup 3} d{sup -1}, consistent with previous studies employing these samplers. PCN air concentrations exhibited strong urban-rural differences - typically a few pg m{sup 3} at rural sites and an order of magnitude higher at urban sites (Toronto, 12-31 pg m{supmore » -3} and Chicago, 13-52 pg m{sup -3}). The high concentrations at urban sites were attributed to continued emissions of historically used technical PCN. Contributions from combustion-derived PCNs seemed to be more important at rural locations where congeners 24 and 50, associated with wood and coal burning, were elevated. Congener 66/67, associated with incineration and other industrial thermal processes, was elevated at two sites and explained by nearby and/or upwind sources. Probability density maps were constructed for each site and for every integration period were shown to be a useful complement to seasonally integrated passive sampling data to resolve source-receptor relationship for PCNs and other pollutants. 25 refs., 7 figs., 1 tabs.« less

Performance of a Protected Wireless Sensor Network in a Fire. Analysis of Fire Spread and Data Transmission

PubMed Central

Antoine-Santoni, Thierry; Santucci, Jean-François; de Gentili, Emmanuelle; Silvani, Xavier; Morandini, Frederic

2009-01-01

The paper deals with a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) as a reliable solution for capturing the kinematics of a fire front spreading over a fuel bed. To provide reliable information in fire studies and support fire fighting strategies, a Wireless Sensor Network must be able to perform three sequential actions: 1) sensing thermal data in the open as the gas temperature; 2) detecting a fire i.e., the spatial position of a flame; 3) tracking the fire spread during its spatial and temporal evolution. One of the great challenges in performing fire front tracking with a WSN is to avoid the destruction of motes by the fire. This paper therefore shows the performance of Wireless Sensor Network when the motes are protected with a thermal insulation dedicated to track a fire spreading across vegetative fuels on a field scale. The resulting experimental WSN is then used in series of wildfire experiments performed in the open in vegetation areas ranging in size from 50 to 1,000 m2. PMID:22454563

Performance of a protected wireless sensor network in a fire. Analysis of fire spread and data transmission.

PubMed

Antoine-Santoni, Thierry; Santucci, Jean-François; de Gentili, Emmanuelle; Silvani, Xavier; Morandini, Frederic

2009-01-01

The paper deals with a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) as a reliable solution for capturing the kinematics of a fire front spreading over a fuel bed. To provide reliable information in fire studies and support fire fighting strategies, a Wireless Sensor Network must be able to perform three sequential actions: 1) sensing thermal data in the open as the gas temperature; 2) detecting a fire i.e., the spatial position of a flame; 3) tracking the fire spread during its spatial and temporal evolution. One of the great challenges in performing fire front tracking with a WSN is to avoid the destruction of motes by the fire. This paper therefore shows the performance of Wireless Sensor Network when the motes are protected with a thermal insulation dedicated to track a fire spreading across vegetative fuels on a field scale. The resulting experimental WSN is then used in series of wildfire experiments performed in the open in vegetation areas ranging in size from 50 to 1,000 m(2).

Improved spatial regression analysis of diffusion tensor imaging for lesion detection during longitudinal progression of multiple sclerosis in individual subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bilan; Qiu, Xing; Zhu, Tong; Tian, Wei; Hu, Rui; Ekholm, Sven; Schifitto, Giovanni; Zhong, Jianhui

2016-03-01

Subject-specific longitudinal DTI study is vital for investigation of pathological changes of lesions and disease evolution. Spatial Regression Analysis of Diffusion tensor imaging (SPREAD) is a non-parametric permutation-based statistical framework that combines spatial regression and resampling techniques to achieve effective detection of localized longitudinal diffusion changes within the whole brain at individual level without a priori hypotheses. However, boundary blurring and dislocation limit its sensitivity, especially towards detecting lesions of irregular shapes. In the present study, we propose an improved SPREAD (dubbed improved SPREAD, or iSPREAD) method by incorporating a three-dimensional (3D) nonlinear anisotropic diffusion filtering method, which provides edge-preserving image smoothing through a nonlinear scale space approach. The statistical inference based on iSPREAD was evaluated and compared with the original SPREAD method using both simulated and in vivo human brain data. Results demonstrated that the sensitivity and accuracy of the SPREAD method has been improved substantially by adapting nonlinear anisotropic filtering. iSPREAD identifies subject-specific longitudinal changes in the brain with improved sensitivity, accuracy, and enhanced statistical power, especially when the spatial correlation is heterogeneous among neighboring image pixels in DTI.

Fluid Spatial Dynamics of West Nile Virus in the United States: Rapid Spread in a Permissive Host Environment.

PubMed

Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Docherty, Douglas E; McLean, Robert G; Zody, Michael C; Qu, James; Yang, Xiao; Birren, Bruce W; Malboeuf, Christine M; Newman, Ruchi M; Ip, Hon S; Holmes, Edward C

2016-01-15

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999 is a classic example of viral emergence in a new environment, with its subsequent dispersion across the continent having a major impact on local bird populations. Despite the importance of this epizootic, the pattern, dynamics, and determinants of WNV spread in its natural hosts remain uncertain. In particular, it is unclear whether the virus encountered major barriers to transmission, or spread in an unconstrained manner, and if specific viral lineages were favored over others indicative of intrinsic differences in fitness. To address these key questions in WNV evolution and ecology, we sequenced the complete genomes of approximately 300 avian isolates sampled across the United States between 2001 and 2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a relatively star-like tree structure, indicative of explosive viral spread in the United States, although with some replacement of viral genotypes through time. These data are striking in that viral sequences exhibit relatively limited clustering according to geographic region, particularly for those viruses sampled from birds, and no strong phylogenetic association with well-sampled avian species. The genome sequence data analyzed here also contain relatively little evidence for adaptive evolution, particularly of structural proteins, suggesting that most viral lineages are of similar fitness and that WNV is well adapted to the ecology of mosquito vectors and diverse avian hosts in the United States. In sum, the molecular evolution of WNV in North America depicts a largely unfettered expansion within a permissive host and geographic population with little evidence of major adaptive barriers. How viruses spread in new host and geographic environments is central to understanding the emergence and evolution of novel infectious diseases and for predicting their likely impact. The emergence of the vector-borne West Nile virus (WNV) in North America in 1999

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-09-01

Vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VLS) is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep leeward slope in a direction approximately transverse to the background winds. VLS is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and intense pyro-convection. In this study, the WRF-Fire (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) coupled atmosphere-fire model is used to examine the sensitivity of resolving VLS to both the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling from within the model framework. The atmospheric horizontal and vertical grid spacing are varied between 25 and 90 m, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolutions, the inclusion of fire-to-atmosphere coupling increases the upslope and lateral rate of spread by factors of up to 2.7 and 9.5, respectively. This increase in the upslope and lateral rate of spread diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions, and VLS is not modelled for a horizontal and vertical grid spacing of 90 m. The lateral fire spread is driven by fire whirls formed due to an interaction between the background winds and the vertical circulation generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The laterally advancing fire fronts become the dominant contributors to the extreme pyro-convection. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to model VLS with WRF-Fire.

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Stark, James H; Cummings, Derek A T; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S; Wisniewski, Stephen R

2012-01-01

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation=62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.

Partial volume correction of PET-imaged tumor heterogeneity using expectation maximization with a spatially varying point spread function

PubMed Central

Barbee, David L; Flynn, Ryan T; Holden, James E; Nickles, Robert J; Jeraj, Robert

2010-01-01

Tumor heterogeneities observed in positron emission tomography (PET) imaging are frequently compromised of partial volume effects which may affect treatment prognosis, assessment, or future implementations such as biologically optimized treatment planning (dose painting). This paper presents a method for partial volume correction of PET-imaged heterogeneous tumors. A point source was scanned on a GE Discover LS at positions of increasing radii from the scanner’s center to obtain the spatially varying point spread function (PSF). PSF images were fit in three dimensions to Gaussian distributions using least squares optimization. Continuous expressions were devised for each Gaussian width as a function of radial distance, allowing for generation of the system PSF at any position in space. A spatially varying partial volume correction (SV-PVC) technique was developed using expectation maximization (EM) and a stopping criterion based on the method’s correction matrix generated for each iteration. The SV-PVC was validated using a standard tumor phantom and a tumor heterogeneity phantom, and was applied to a heterogeneous patient tumor. SV-PVC results were compared to results obtained from spatially invariant partial volume correction (SINV-PVC), which used directionally uniform three dimensional kernels. SV-PVC of the standard tumor phantom increased the maximum observed sphere activity by 55 and 40% for 10 and 13 mm diameter spheres, respectively. Tumor heterogeneity phantom results demonstrated that as net changes in the EM correction matrix decreased below 35%, further iterations improved overall quantitative accuracy by less than 1%. SV-PVC of clinically observed tumors frequently exhibited changes of ±30% in regions of heterogeneity. The SV-PVC method implemented spatially varying kernel widths and automatically determined the number of iterations for optimal restoration, parameters which are arbitrarily chosen in SINV-PVC. Comparing SV-PVC to SINV

Spatial variability of hailfalls in France: an analysis of air mass retro-trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, Lucía; Merino, Andrés; Sánchez, José Luis; Berthet, Claude; Dessens, Jean; López, Laura; Fernández-González, Sergio; Gascón, Estíbaliz; García-Ortega, Eduardo

2014-05-01

Hail is the main meteorological risk in south-west France, with the strongest hailfalls being concentrated in just a few days. Specifically, this phenomenon occurs most often and with the greatest severity in the Midi-Pyrénées area. Previous studies have revealed the high spatial variability of hailfall in this part of France, even leading to different characteristics being recorded on hailpads that were relatively close together. For this reason, an analysis of the air mass trajectories was carried out at ground level and at altitude, which subsequently led to the formation of the hail recorded by these hailpads. It is already known that in the study zone, the trajectories of the storms usually stretch for long distances and are oriented towards the east, leading to hailstones with diameters in excess of 3 cm, and without any change in direction above 3 km. We analysed different days with hail precipitation where there was at least one stone with a diameter of 3 cm or larger. Using the simulations from these days, an analysis of the backward trajectories of the air masses was carried out. We used the HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) to determine the origin of the air masses, and tracked them toward each of the hailpads that were hit during the day studied. The height of the final points was the height of the impacted hailpads. Similarly, the backward trajectories for different heights were also established. Finally, the results show how storms that affect neighbouring hailpads come from very different air masses; and provide a deeper understanding of the high variability that affects the characteristics of hailfalls. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Regional Government of Castile-León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2. This study was supported by the following grants: GRANIMETRO (CGL2010-15930); MICROMETEO (IPT-310000-2010-22).

Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

2015-11-01

Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Data set: 31 years of spatially distributed air temperature, humidity, precipitation amount and precipitation phase from a mountain catchment in the rain-snow transition zone

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thirty one years of spatially distributed air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, precipitation amount, and precipitation phase data are presented for the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed. The data are spatially distributed over a 10m Lidar-derived digital elevation model at ...

Spatial Dynamics of Multilayer Cellular Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shi-Liang; Hsu, Cheng-Hsiung

2018-02-01

The purpose of this work is to study the spatial dynamics of one-dimensional multilayer cellular neural networks. We first establish the existence of rightward and leftward spreading speeds of the model. Then we show that the spreading speeds coincide with the minimum wave speeds of the traveling wave fronts in the right and left directions. Moreover, we obtain the asymptotic behavior of the traveling wave fronts when the wave speeds are positive and greater than the spreading speeds. According to the asymptotic behavior and using various kinds of comparison theorems, some front-like entire solutions are constructed by combining the rightward and leftward traveling wave fronts with different speeds and a spatially homogeneous solution of the model. Finally, various qualitative features of such entire solutions are investigated.

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

PubMed

Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

2015-04-07

Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological multiplex interactions determine the role of species for parasite spread amplification

PubMed Central

Stella, Massimo; Selakovic, Sanja; Antonioni, Alberto

2018-01-01

Despite their potential interplay, multiple routes of many disease transmissions are often investigated separately. As a unifying framework for understanding parasite spread through interdependent transmission paths, we present the ‘ecomultiplex’ model, where the multiple transmission paths among a diverse community of interacting hosts are represented as a spatially explicit multiplex network. We adopt this framework for designing and testing potential control strategies for Trypanosoma cruzi spread in two empirical host communities. We show that the ecomultiplex model is an efficient and low data-demanding method to identify which species enhances parasite spread and should thus be a target for control strategies. We also find that the interplay between predator-prey and host-parasite interactions leads to a phenomenon of parasite amplification, in which top predators facilitate T. cruzi spread, offering a mechanistic interpretation of previous empirical findings. Our approach can provide novel insights in understanding and controlling parasite spreading in real-world complex systems. PMID:29683427

Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

2018-04-01

Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships Between Anomalies of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, percent cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Near real time products, stating with September 2002, have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. Results in this paper included products through April 2008. The time period studied is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, are shown below, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. The ability to match this data represents a good test of a model's response to El Nino.

Spatial and seasonal variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Haihe Plain, China.

PubMed

Wang, Rong; Cao, Hongying; Li, Wei; Wang, Wei; Wang, Wentao; Zhang, Liwen; Liu, Jiumeng; Ouyang, Huiling; Tao, Shu

2011-05-01

A dynamic fugacity model was developed to simulate the spatial and seasonal variations of PAHs in Haihe Plain, China. The calculated and measured concentrations exhibited good consistency in magnitude with deviations within a factor of 4 in air and 2 in soil. The spatial distributions of PAHs in air were mainly controlled by emission while the seasonal variations were dominated by emission and gas-particle partition. In soil, the spatial distributions of PAHs were controlled by the soil organic carbon content while the seasonal variations were insignificant. The severest soil contamination was observed in Shanxi and followed by the southwest of Hebei province. Transfer fluxes of total PAHs between air and soil were calculated. The spatial distribution of air-to-soil flux was closely related to the landcover while the soil-to-air flux changed with soil organic matter content. Monte Carlo simulation was done to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimated results in air. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPATIAL PREDICTION OF AIR QUALITY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Site-specific air quality monitoring data have been used extensively in both scientific and regulatory programs. As such, these data provide essential information to the public, environmental managers, and the atmospheric research community. Currently, air quality management prac...

Spatial associations between social groups and ozone air pollution exposure in the Beijing urban area.

PubMed

Zhao, Xinyi; Cheng, Hongguang; He, Siyuan; Cui, Xiangfen; Pu, Xiao; Lu, Lu

2018-07-01

Few studies have linked social factors to air pollution exposure in China. Unlike the race or minority concepts in western countries, the Hukou system (residential registration system) is a fundamental reason for the existence of social deprivation in China. To assess the differences in ozone (O 3 ) exposure among social groups, especially groups divided by Hukou status, we assigned estimates of O 3 exposure to the latest census data of the Beijing urban area using a kriging interpolation model. We developed simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models that account for spatial autocorrelation to identify the associations between O 3 exposure and social factors. Principal component regression was used to control the multicollinearity bias as well as explore the spatial structure of the social data. The census tracts (CTs) with higher proportions of persons living alone and migrants with non-local Hukou were characterized by greater exposure to ambient O 3 . The areas with greater proportions of seniors had lower O 3 exposure. The spatial distribution patterns were similar among variables including migrants, agricultural population and household separation (population status with separation between Hukou and actual residences), which fit the demographic characteristics of the majority of migrants. Migrants bore a double burden of social deprivation and O 3 pollution exposure due to city development planning and the Hukou system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of transnational mobility in the local spread of mosquito-borne disease: Measuring the determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases initiating indigenous epidemics in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung

2014-05-01

Dengue fever is one of the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne diseases. International travelers who acquire dengue infection are important routes for virus transmission from one country to another one. Previous studies have shown that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. However, the spatial-temporal associations between imported cases and indigenous epidemics in areas with different social-economic conditions are still unclear. This study investigated determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases who initiated indigenous epidemics from 2003 to 2012 in Taiwan. The quantile regression is used to explore the associations between spatial-temporal lags of imported cases and social-economic indicators with geographic heterogeneity. Our results indicated that imported cases in April and May have statistically significant contribution to initiate indigenous epidemics. Areas with high population density and low average income have significant risk of being imported virus from other areas. However, the areas with imported cases are not significant transmission risk. The results imply that imported cases reported in early summer may be an early-warning indicator of indigenous epidemics. Local demographic and economic conditions, rather than imported cases, may determine the areas with the risk of indigenous epidemics.

Full Spatial Resolution Infrared Sounding Application in the Preconvection Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Liu, G.; Lin, T.

2013-12-01

Advanced infrared (IR) sounders such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provide atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles with high vertical resolution and high accuracy in preconvection environments. The derived atmospheric stability indices such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and lifted index (LI) from advanced IR soundings can provide critical information 1 ; 6 h before the development of severe convective storms. Three convective storms are selected for the evaluation of applying AIRS full spatial resolution soundings and the derived products on providing warning information in the preconvection environments. In the first case, the AIRS full spatial resolution soundings revealed local extremely high atmospheric instability 3 h ahead of the convection on the leading edge of a frontal system, while the second case demonstrates that the extremely high atmospheric instability is associated with the local development of severe thunderstorm in the following hours. The third case is a local severe storm that occurred on 7-8 August 2010 in Zhou Qu, China, which caused more than 1400 deaths and left another 300 or more people missing. The AIRS full spatial resolution LI product shows the atmospheric instability 3.5 h before the storm genesis. The CAPE and LI from AIRS full spatial resolution and operational AIRS/AMSU soundings along with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder derived product image (DPI) products were analyzed and compared. Case studies show that full spatial resolution AIRS retrievals provide more useful warning information in the preconvection environments for determining favorable locations for convective initiation (CI) than do the coarser spatial resolution operational soundings and lower spectral resolution GOES Sounder retrievals. The retrieved soundings are also tested in a regional data assimilation WRF 3D-var system to evaluate the

Geographical Analysis of the Distribution and Spread of Human Rabies in China from 2005 to 2011

PubMed Central

Yin, Wenwu; Yu, Hongjie; Si, Yali; Li, Jianhui; Zhou, Yuanchun; Zhou, Xiaoyan; Magalhães, Ricardo J. Soares.

2013-01-01

Background Rabies is a significant public health problem in China in that it records the second highest case incidence globally. Surveillance data on canine rabies in China is lacking and human rabies notifications can be a useful indicator of areas where animal and human rabies control could be integrated. Previous spatial epidemiological studies lacked adequate spatial resolution to inform targeted rabies control decisions. We aimed to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies and model its geographical spread to provide an evidence base to inform future integrated rabies control strategies in China. Methods We geo-referenced a total of 17,760 human rabies cases of China from 2005 to 2011. In our spatial analyses we used Gaussian kernel density analysis, average nearest neighbor distance, Spatial Temporal Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise and developed a model of rabies spatiotemporal spread. Findings Human rabies cases increased from 2005 to 2007 and decreased during 2008 to 2011 companying change of the spatial distribution. The ANN distance among human rabies cases increased between 2005 and 2011, and the degree of clustering of human rabies cases decreased during that period. A total 480 clusters were detected by ST-DBSCAN, 89.4% clusters initiated before 2007. Most of clusters were mainly found in South of China. The number and duration of cluster decreased significantly after 2008. Areas with the highest density of human rabies cases varied spatially each year and in some areas remained with high outbreak density for several years. Though few places have recovered from human rabies, most of affected places are still suffering from the disease. Conclusion Human rabies in mainland China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent changed during 2005 to 2011. The results provide a scientific basis for public health authorities in China to improve human rabies control and prevention program. PMID:23991098

Effects of air-exposure gradients on spatial infection patterns of Perkinsus marinus in the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica.

PubMed

Malek, Jennafer C; Breitburg, Denise L

2016-02-25

Spatial distributions of species can be shaped by factors such as parasites, mortality, and reproduction, all of which may be influenced by differences in physical factors along environmental gradients. In nearshore tidal waters, an elevational gradient in aerial exposure during low tide can shape the spatial distributions of benthic marine organisms. The eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica is an ecologically and economically important species that can dominate both subtidal and intertidal habitats along the east coast of the USA. Our goal was to determine whether prevalence and intensity of Perkinsus marinus (the causative agent of Dermo disease) infections vary along intertidal to subtidal gradients during summer. We used (1) field experiments conducted at 4 sites in the Chesapeake Bay and a Virginia coastal bay, (2) a controlled air-exposure experiment, and (3) field surveys from 7 sites ranging from Maine to North Carolina to test for effects of tidal exposure on infection. Results from our field surveys suggested that high intertidal oysters tend to have higher infection prevalence than subtidal oysters, but there was no effect on infection intensity. Field experiments rarely yielded significant effects of tidal exposure on infection prevalence and intensity. Overall, our study shows that exposure to air may not be a strong driver of infection patterns in this host-parasite system.

Radiative Ignition and the Transition to Flame Spread Investigated in the Japan Microgravity Center's 10-sec Drop Shaft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

The Radiative Ignition and Transition to Spread Investigation (RITSI) is a shuttle middeck Glovebox combustion experiment developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center, the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), and Aerospace Design and Fabrication (ADF). It is scheduled to fly on the third United States Microgravity Payload (USMP-3) mission in February 1996. The objective of RITSI is to experimentally study radiative ignition and the subsequent transition to flame spread in low gravity in the presence of very low speed air flows in two- and three-dimensional configurations. Toward this objective, a unique collaboration between NASA, NIST, and the University of Hokkaido was established to conduct 15 science and engineering tests in Japan's 10-sec drop shaft. For these tests, the RITSI engineering hardware was mounted in a sealed chamber with a variable oxygen atmosphere. Ashless filter paper was ignited during each drop by a tungsten-halogen heat lamp focused on a small spot in the center of the paper. The flame spread outward from that point. Data recorded included fan voltage (a measure of air flow), radiant heater voltage (a measure of radiative ignition energy), and surface temperatures (measured by up to three surface thermocouples) during ignition and flame spread.

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires

DOE PAGES

Fox, Jerome M.; Whitesides, George M.

2015-02-09

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This study describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., “wind–firemore » coupling”—a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. Here, in this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind–fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Lastly, findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., “blowup fires” in forests).« less

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Jerome M.; Whitesides, George M.

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This study describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., “wind–firemore » coupling”—a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. Here, in this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind–fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Lastly, findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., “blowup fires” in forests).« less

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

2009-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Thermal Environment and Air Quality in Taipei Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juang, J. Y.; Sun, C. H.; Jiang, J. A.; Wen, T. H.

2017-12-01

The urban heat island effect (UHI) caused by the regional-to-global environmental changes, dramatic urbanization, and shifting in land-use compositions has becoming an important environmental issue in recent years. In the past century, the coverage of urban area in Taipei Basin has dramatically increasing by ten folds. The strengthen of UHI effect significantly enhances the frequency of warm-night effect, and strongly influences the thermal environment of the residents in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan. In addition, the urban expansions due to dramatic increasing in urban populations and traffic loading significantly impacts the air quality and causes health issue in Taipei. In this study, the main objective is to quantify and characterize the temporal and spatial distributions of thermal environmental and air quality in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area by using monitoring data from Central Weather Bureau, Environmental Protection Administration. In addition, in this study, we conduct the analysis on the distribution of physiological equivalent temperature in the micro scale in the metropolitan area by using the observation data and quantitative simulation to investigate how the thermal environment is influenced under different conditions. Furthermore, we establish a real-time mobile monitoring system by using wireless sensor network to investigate the correlation between the thermal environment, air quality and other environmental factors, and propose to develop the early warning system for heat stress and air quality in the metropolitan area. The results from this study can be integrated into the management and planning system, and provide sufficient and important background information for the development of smart city in the metropolitan area in the future.

Spatial variations of particulate matter and air toxics in communities adjacent to the Port of Oakland.

PubMed

Fujita, Eric M; Campbell, David E; Arnott, W Patrick; Lau, Virginia; Martien, Philip T

2013-12-01

The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) sponsored the West Oakland Monitoring Study (WOMS) to provide supplemental air quality monitoring that will be used by the BAAQMD to evaluate local-scale dispersion modeling of diesel emissions and other toxic air contaminants for the area within and around the Port of Oakland. The WOMS was conducted during two seasonal periods of 4 weeks in summer 2009 and winter 2009/2010. Monitoring data showed spatial patterns of pollutant concentrations that were generally consistent with proximity to vehicle traffic. Concentrations of directly emitted pollutants were highest on heavily traveled roads with consistently lower concentrations away from the roadways. Pollutants that have higher emission rates from diesel trucks (nitric oxide, black carbon) tended to exhibit sharper gradients than pollutants that are largely associated with gasoline vehicles, such as carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX). BTEX concentrations in West Oakland were similar to those measured at the three air toxics monitoring network sites in the Bay Area (San Francisco, Fremont, and San Jose). Aldehyde levels were higher in Fremont and San Jose than in West Oakland, reflecting greater contributions from photo-oxidation of hydrocarbons downwind of the Bay Area. A 2005 modeling-based health risk assessment of diesel particulate matter concentrations is consistent with aerosol carbon concentrations measured during the WOMS after adjusting for recent mitigation measures and improved estimates of heavy-duty truck traffic volumes.

Improved spatial resolution of luminescence images acquired with a silicon line scanning camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teal, Anthony; Mitchell, Bernhard; Juhl, Mattias K.

2018-04-01

Luminescence imaging is currently being used to provide spatially resolved defect in high volume silicon solar cell production. One option to obtain the high throughput required for on the fly detection is the use a silicon line scan cameras. However, when using a silicon based camera, the spatial resolution is reduced as a result of the weakly absorbed light scattering within the camera's chip. This paper address this issue by applying deconvolution from a measured point spread function. This paper extends the methods for determining the point spread function of a silicon area camera to a line scan camera with charge transfer. The improvement in resolution is quantified in the Fourier domain and in spatial domain on an image of a multicrystalline silicon brick. It is found that light spreading beyond the active sensor area is significant in line scan sensors, but can be corrected for through normalization of the point spread function. The application of this method improves the raw data, allowing effective detection of the spatial resolution of defects in manufacturing.

Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment.

PubMed

Juhász, Róbert; Kovács, István A; Iglói, Ferenc

2015-03-01

Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched, disordered, d-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with distance as 1/rd+σ. We study the dynamical behavior of the model at and below the epidemic threshold by a variant of the strong-disorder renormalization-group method and by Monte Carlo simulations in one and two spatial dimensions. Starting from a single infected site, the average survival probability is found to decay as P(t)∼t-d/z up to multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Below the epidemic threshold, a Griffiths phase emerges, where the dynamical exponent z varies continuously with the control parameter and tends to zc=d+σ as the threshold is approached. At the threshold, the spatial extension of the infected cluster (in surviving trials) is found to grow as R(t)∼t1/zc with a multiplicative logarithmic correction and the average number of infected sites in surviving trials is found to increase as Ns(t)∼(lnt)χ with χ=2 in one dimension.

Spatial-temporal modeling of malware propagation in networks.

PubMed

Chen, Zesheng; Ji, Chuanyi

2005-09-01

Network security is an important task of network management. One threat to network security is malware (malicious software) propagation. One type of malware is called topological scanning that spreads based on topology information. The focus of this work is on modeling the spread of topological malwares, which is important for understanding their potential damages, and for developing countermeasures to protect the network infrastructure. Our model is motivated by probabilistic graphs, which have been widely investigated in machine learning. We first use a graphical representation to abstract the propagation of malwares that employ different scanning methods. We then use a spatial-temporal random process to describe the statistical dependence of malware propagation in arbitrary topologies. As the spatial dependence is particularly difficult to characterize, the problem becomes how to use simple (i.e., biased) models to approximate the spatially dependent process. In particular, we propose the independent model and the Markov model as simple approximations. We conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations on large networks using both real measurements and synthesized topologies to test the performance of the proposed models. Our results show that the independent model can capture temporal dependence and detailed topology information and, thus, outperforms the previous models, whereas the Markov model incorporates a certain spatial dependence and, thus, achieves a greater accuracy in characterizing both transient and equilibrium behaviors of malware propagation.

Line spread instrumentation for propagation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, W. H., Jr.

1980-01-01

A line spread device capable of yielding direct measure of a laser beam's line spread function (LSF) was developed and employed in propagation tests conducted in a wind tunnel to examine optimal acoustical suppression techniques for laser cavities exposed to simulated aircraft aerodynamic environments. Measurements were made on various aerodynamic fences and cavity air injection techniques that effect the LSF of a propagating laser. Using the quiescent tunnel as a control, the relative effect of each technique on laser beam quality was determined. The optical instrument employed enabled the comparison of relative beam intensity for each fence or mass injection. It was found that fence height had little effect on beam quality but fence porosity had a marked effect, i.e., 58% porosity alleviated cavity resonance and degraded the beam the least. Mass injection had little effect on the beam LSF. The use of a direct LSF measuring device proved to be a viable means of determining aerodynamic seeing qualities of flow fields.

Targeted Recovery as an Effective Strategy against Epidemic Spreading.

PubMed

Böttcher, L; Andrade, J S; Herrmann, H J

2017-10-30

We propose a targeted intervention protocol where recovery is restricted to individuals that have the least number of infected neighbours. Our recovery strategy is highly efficient on any kind of network, since epidemic outbreaks are minimal when compared to the baseline scenario of spontaneous recovery. In the case of spatially embedded networks, we find that an epidemic stays strongly spatially confined with a characteristic length scale undergoing a random walk. We demonstrate numerically and analytically that this dynamics leads to an epidemic spot with a flat surface structure and a radius that grows linearly with the spreading rate.

Fluid spatial dynamics of West Nile virus in the USA: Rapid spread in a permissive host environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Di Giallonardo , Francesca; Geoghegan, Jemma L.; Docherty, Douglas E.; McLean, Robert G.; Zody, Michael C.; Qu, James; Yang, Xiao; Birren, Bruce W.; Malboeuf, Christine M.; Newman, R.; Ip, Hon S.; Holmes, Edward C.

2016-01-01

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999 is a classical example of viral emergence in a new environment, with its subsequent dispersion across the continent having a major impact on local bird populations. Despite the importance of this epizootic, the pattern, dynamics and determinants of WNV spread in its natural hosts remain uncertain. In particular, it is unclear whether the virus encountered major barriers to transmission, or spread in an unconstrained manner, and if specific viral lineages were favored over others indicative of intrinsic differences in fitness. To address these key questions in WNV evolution and ecology we sequenced the complete genomes of approximately 300 avian isolates sampled across the USA between 2001-2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a relatively ‘star-like' tree structure, indicative of explosive viral spread in US, although with some replacement of viral genotypes through time. These data are striking in that viral sequences exhibit relatively limited clustering according to geographic region, particularly for those viruses sampled from birds, and no strong phylogenetic association with well sampled avian species. The genome sequence data analysed here also contain relatively little evidence for adaptive evolution, particularly on structural proteins, suggesting that most viral lineages are of similar fitness, and that WNV is well adapted to the ecology of mosquito vectors and diverse avian hosts in the USA. In sum, the molecular evolution of WNV in North America depicts a largely unfettered expansion within a permissive host and geographic population with little evidence of major adaptive barriers.

Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics

PubMed Central

Stark, James H.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Background Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. PMID:22916274

Social Capital and Geography of Learning: Roles in Accelerating the Spread of Integrated Pest Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palis, Florencia G.; Morin, Stephen; Hossain, Mahabub

2005-01-01

This paper aims to show the relevance of spatial proximity and social capital in accelerating the spread of agricultural technologies such as integrated pest management (IPM). The research was done in response to the problem of slow diffusion of agricultural technologies. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used in investigating the…

Spatial & temporal variations of PM10 and particle number concentrations in urban air.

PubMed

Johansson, Christer; Norman, Michael; Gidhagen, Lars

2007-04-01

The size of particles in urban air varies over four orders of magnitude (from 0.001 microm to 10 microm in diameter). In many cities only particle mass concentrations (PM10, i.e. particles <10 microm diameter) is measured. In this paper we analyze how differences in emissions, background concentrations and meteorology affect the temporal and spatial distribution of PM10 and total particle number concentrations (PNC) based on measurements and dispersion modeling in Stockholm, Sweden. PNC at densely trafficked kerbside locations are dominated by ultrafine particles (<0.1 microm diameter) due to vehicle exhaust emissions as verified by high correlation with NOx. But PNC contribute only marginally to PM10, due to the small size of exhaust particles. Instead wear of the road surface is an important factor for the highest PM10 concentrations observed. In Stockholm, road wear increases drastically due to the use of studded tires and traction sand on streets during winter; up to 90% of the locally emitted PM10 may be due to road abrasion. PM10 emissions and concentrations, but not PNC, at kerbside are controlled by road moisture. Annual mean urban background PM10 levels are relatively uniformly distributed over the city, due to the importance of long range transport. For PNC local sources often dominate the concentrations resulting in large temporal and spatial gradients in the concentrations. Despite these differences in the origin of PM10 and PNC, the spatial gradients of annual mean concentrations due to local sources are of equal magnitude due to the common source, namely traffic. Thus, people in different areas experiencing a factor of 2 different annual PM10 exposure due to local sources will also experience a factor of 2 different exposure in terms of PNC. This implies that health impact studies based solely on spatial differences in annual exposure to PM10 may not separate differences in health effects due to ultrafine and coarse particles. On the other hand

Quantification of spatial distribution and spread of bacteria in soil at microscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juyal, Archana; Eickhorst, Thilo; Falconer, Ruth; Baveye, Philippe; Otten, Wilfred

2015-04-01

Soil bacteria play an essential role in functioning of ecosystems and maintaining of biogeochemical cycles. Soil is a complex heterogeneous environment comprising of highly variable and dynamic micro-habitats that have significant impacts on the growth and activity of resident microbiota including bacteria and fungi. Bacteria occupy a very small portion of available pore space in soil which demonstrates that their spatial arrangement in soil has a huge impact on the contact to their target and on the way they interact to carry out their functions. Due to limitation of techniques, there is scant information on spatial distribution of indigenous or introduced bacteria at microhabitat scale. There is a need to understand the interaction between soil structure and microorganisms including fungi for ecosystem-level processes such as carbon sequestration and improving the predictive models for soil management. In this work, a combination of techniques was used including X-ray CT to characterize the soil structure and in-situ detection via fluorescence microscopy to visualize and quantify bacteria in soil thin sections. Pseudomonas fluorescens bacteria were introduced in sterilized soil of aggregate size 1-2 mm and packed at bulk-densities 1.3 g cm-3 and 1.5 g cm-3. A subset of samples was fixed with paraformaldehyde and subsequently impregnated with resin. DAPI and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to visualize bacteria in thin sections of soil cores by epifluorescence microscopy to enumerate spatial distribution of bacteria in soil. The pore geometry of soil was quantified after X-ray microtomography scanning. The distribution of bacteria introduced locally reduced significantly (P

Using a chemistry transport model to account for the spatial variability of exposure concentrations in epidemiologic air pollution studies.

PubMed

Valari, Myrto; Menut, Laurent; Chatignoux, Edouard

2011-02-01

Environmental epidemiology and more specifically time-series analysis have traditionally used area-averaged pollutant concentrations measured at central monitors as exposure surrogates to associate health outcomes with air pollution. However, spatial aggregation has been shown to contribute to the overall bias in the estimation of the exposure-response functions. This paper presents the benefit of adding features of the spatial variability of exposure by using concentration fields modeled with a chemistry transport model instead of monitor data and accounting for human activity patterns. On the basis of county-level census data for the city of Paris, France, and a Monte Carlo simulation, a simple activity model was developed accounting for the temporal variability between working and evening hours as well as during transit. By combining activity data with modeled concentrations, the downtown, suburban, and rural spatial patterns in exposure to nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) were captured and parametrized. Exposures predicted with this model were used in a time-series study of the short-term effect of air pollution on total nonaccidental mortality for the 4-yr period from 2001 to 2004. It was shown that the time series of the exposure surrogates developed here are less correlated across co-pollutants than in the case of the area-averaged monitor data. This led to less biased exposure-response functions when all three co-pollutants were inserted simultaneously in the same regression model. This finding yields insight into pollutant-specific health effects that are otherwise masked by the high correlation among co-pollutants.

Role of Cattle Movements in Bovine Tuberculosis Spread in France between 2005 and 2014.

PubMed

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2016-01-01

Live animal movements are a major transmission route for the spread of infectious agents such as Mycobacterium bovis, the main agent of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB). France became officially bTB-free in 2001, but M. bovis is still circulating in the cattle population, with about a hundred of outbreaks per year, most located in a few geographic areas. The aim of this study was to analyse the role of cattle movements in bTB spread in France between 2005 and 2014, using social network analysis and logistic regression models. At a global scale, the trade network was studied to assess the association between several centrality measures and bTB infection though a case-control analysis. The bTB infection status was associated with a higher in-degree (odds-ratio [OR] = 2.4 [1.1-5.4]) and with a higher ingoing contact chain (OR = 2.2 [1.0-4.7]). At a more local scale, a second case-control analysis was conducted to estimate the relative importance of cattle movements and spatial neighbourhood. Only direct purchase from infected herds was shown to be associated with bTB infection (OR = 2.9 [1.7-5.2]), spatial proximity to infected herds being the predominant risk factor, with decreasing ORs when distance increases. Indeed, the population attributable fraction was 12% [5%-18%] for cattle movements and 73% [68%-78%] for spatial neighbourhood. Based on these results, networks of potential effective contacts between herds were built and analysed for the three major spoligotypes reported in France. In these networks, the links representing cattle movements were associated with higher edge betweenness than those representing the spatial proximity between infected herds. They were often links connecting distinct communities and sometimes distinct geographical areas. Therefore, although their role was quantitatively lower than the one of spatial neighbourhood, cattle movements appear to have been essential in the French bTB dynamics between 2005 and 2014.

Assessment and prediction of urban air pollution caused by motor transport exhaust gases using computer simulation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyarshinov, Michael G.; Vaismana, Yakov I.

2016-10-01

The following methods were used in order to identify the pollution fields of urban air caused by the motor transport exhaust gases: the mathematical model, which enables to consider the influence of the main factors that determine pollution fields formation in the complex spatial domain; the authoring software designed for computational modeling of the gas flow, generated by numerous mobile point sources; the results of computing experiments on pollutant spread analysis and evolution of their concentration fields. The computational model of exhaust gas distribution and dispersion in a spatial domain, which includes urban buildings, structures and main traffic arteries, takes into account a stochastic character of cars apparition on the borders of the examined territory and uses a Poisson process. The model also considers the traffic lights switching and permits to define the fields of velocity, pressure and temperature of the discharge gases in urban air. The verification of mathematical model and software used confirmed their satisfactory fit to the in-situ measurements data and the possibility to use the obtained computing results for assessment and prediction of urban air pollution caused by motor transport exhaust gases.

Disinfecting Filters For Recirculated Air

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pilichi, Carmine A.

1992-01-01

Simple treatment disinfects air filters by killing bacteria, algae, fungi, mycobacteria, viruses, spores, and any other micro-organisms filters might harbor. Concept applied to reusable stainless-steel wire mesh filters and disposable air filters. Treatment used on filters in air-circulation systems in spacecraft, airplanes, other vehicles, and buildings to help prevent spread of colds, sore throats, and more-serious illnesses.

Galapagos hotspot-spreading center system: 1. Spatial petrological and geochemical variations (83/sup 0/W-101/sup 0/W)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schilling, J.; Kingsley, R.H.; Devine, J.D.

We report on the petrology and geochemistry of basalts dredged at 40--50 km intervals along the Galapagos Spreading Center, between 83/sup 0/W and 101/sup 0/W (40 stations). Emphasis is on spatial variations of 'whole rock' major elements, rare earths, trace metals of the first transition series, and the nature of phenocryst assemblages and their abundances. These results provide new constraints on the nature and scale of mantle source heterogeneities, melting conditions, thermal field, and dynamics of crustal formation of the region. We suggest that ridge segments outside the high magnetic amplitude zone are at a steady state as a resultmore » of passive seafloor spreading. Basalts from these segments are apparently derived from an asthenosphere relatively uniformally depleted in incompatible elements, which appears of worldwide extent. We reject Vogt and DeBoer's (1976) model invoking damming at fracture zones of subaxial asthenosphere flow of crystal slushes and increasing fractional crystallization down the flow line, because this model would not explain the gradients in REE observed about the Galapagos Platform. Our preferred model combines the mantle-plume binary mixing model of Schilling (1973) with the concept of recurring rift propagation proposed by Hey (1977a). We further propose that pulsating mantle plume flux, perhaps in the form of a chain of blobs, may initiate the development of new rifts and their propagation. The present position of the tips of such new propagating rifts locate the wave fronts of such pulsating mantle plume flow. A two million year period is suggested for the last 4 m.y. from Wilson and Hey's (1979) information Rigorous testing of our preferred model is possible.« less

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

2012-08-01

Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

Assortative mating and mutation diffusion in spatial evolutionary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paley, C. J.; Taraskin, S. N.; Elliott, S. R.

2010-04-01

The influence of spatial structure on the equilibrium properties of a sexual population model defined on networks is studied numerically. Using a small-world-like topology of the networks as an investigative tool, the contributions to the fitness of assortative mating and of global mutant spread properties are considered. Simple measures of nearest-neighbor correlations and speed of spread of mutants through the system have been used to confirm that both of these dynamics are important contributory factors to the fitness. It is found that assortative mating increases the fitness of populations. Quick global spread of favorable mutations is shown to be a key factor increasing the equilibrium fitness of populations.

An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread

PubMed Central

Perez, Liliana; Dragicevic, Suzana

2009-01-01

Background The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts. Objective The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context. Methods The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site. Results The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susceptible/infected in specific time frames and urban environments, due to its ability to depict the disease progression based on individuals' interactions. It is demonstrated that the dynamic spatial interactions within the population lead to high numbers of exposed individuals who perform stationary activities in areas after they have finished commuting. As a result, the sick individuals are concentrated in geographical locations like schools and universities. Conclusion The GIS-agent based model

Coadsorption of Human Milk Lactoferrin into the Dipalmitoylglycerolphosphatidylcholine Phospholipid Monolayer Spread at the Air/Water Interface

PubMed Central

Miano, Fausto; Zhao, Xiubo; Lu, Jian R.; Penfold, Jeff

2007-01-01

The coadsorption of human milk lactoferrin into a spread monolayer of dipalmitoylglycerol phosphatidylcholine (DPPC) at the air/water interface has been studied by neutron reflection. The system is a good model of the preocular tear film outer interface, which was the motivation for the study. The association of the protein with the surface was indicated by an increase of the surface pressure exerted by the DPPC monolayer. The extent of lactoferrin coadsorption was found to decrease with increasing surface pressure in the lipid monolayer, a trend consistent with the observation reported for other proteins, such as lysozyme and β-lactoglobulin. The neutron reflectivity measurements were subsequently carried out at the three surface pressures of 8, 15, and 35 mN/m to examine the structure and composition of lactoferrin coadsorbed at the interface. Whereas the DPPC monolayer effectively prevented lactoferrin insertion at the high surface pressure, a measurable amount of lactoferrin was found at the air/water interface at the two lower surface pressures. At 15 mN/m it was difficult to identify the distribution of lactoferrin with respect to the DPPC monolayer, due to its relatively low adsorbed amount and much broader distribution. At the lowest surface pressure of 8 mN/m, the lactoferrin coadsorption was found to increase with time over the first few hours. After 5 h the distribution of the lactoferrin layer became similar to, though quantitatively lower than, that adsorbed in the absence of the DPPC monolayer. It is characterized by a top dense sublayer of 15 Å with a bottom diffuse sublayer of 60 Å, indicating structural unfolding induced by surface adsorption under these conditions. PMID:17114223

Characterizing spatial variability of air pollution from vehicle traffic around the Houston Ship Channel area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xueying; Craft, Elena; Zhang, Kai

2017-07-01

Mobile emissions are a major source of urban air pollution and have been associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. The Houston Ship Channel area is the home of a large number of diesel-powered vehicles emitting fine particulate matter (PM2.5; ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). However, the spatial variability of traffic-related air pollutants in the Houston Ship Channel area has rarely been investigated. The objective of this study is to characterize spatial variability of PM2.5 and NOx concentrations attributable to on-road traffic in the Houston Ship Channel area in the year of 2011. We extracted the road network from the Texas Department of Transportation Road Inventory, and calculated emission rates using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator version 2014a (MOVES2014a). These parameters and preprocessed meteorological parameters were entered into a Research LINE-source Dispersion Model (RLINE) to conduct a simulation. Receptors were placed at 50 m resolution within 300 m to major roads and at 150 m resolution in the rest of the area. Our findings include that traffic-related PM2.5 were mainly emitted from trucks, while traffic-related NOx were emitted from both trucks and cars. The traffic contributed 0.90 μg/m3 PM2.5 and 29.23 μg/m3 NOx to the annual average mass concentrations of on-road air pollution, and the concentrations of the two pollutants decreased by nearly 40% within 500 m distance to major roads. The pollution level of traffic-related PM2.5 and NOx was higher in winter than those in the other three seasons. The Houston Ship Channel has earlier morning peak hours and relative late afternoon hours, which indicates the influence of goods movement from port activity. The varied near-road gradients illustrate that proximities to major roads are not an accurate surrogate of traffic-related air pollution.

Thematic Mapper Protoflight Model Line Spread Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schueler, C.

1984-01-01

The Thematic Mapper (TM) Protoflight Model Spatial Line Spread Function (LSF) was not measured before launch. Therefore, methodology are developed to characterize LSF with protoflight model optics and electronics measurements that were made before launch. Direct prelaunch LSF measurements that were made from the flight model TM verified the protoflight TM LSF simulation. Results for two selected protoflight TM channels are presented here. It is shown that LSF data for the other ninety-four channels could be generated in the same fashion.

Continuous versus Arrested Spreading of Biofilms at Solid-Gas Interfaces: The Role of Surface Forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinschek, Sarah; John, Karin; Lecuyer, Sigolène; Thiele, Uwe

2017-08-01

We introduce and analyze a model for osmotically spreading bacterial colonies at solid-air interfaces that includes wetting phenomena, i.e., surface forces. The model is based on a hydrodynamic description for liquid suspensions which is supplemented by bioactive processes. We show that surface forces determine whether a biofilm can expand laterally over a substrate and provide experimental evidence for the existence of a transition between continuous and arrested spreading for Bacillus subtilis biofilms. In the case of arrested spreading, the lateral expansion of the biofilm is confined, albeit the colony is biologically active. However, a small reduction in the surface tension of the biofilm is sufficient to induce spreading. The incorporation of surface forces into our hydrodynamic model allows us to capture this transition in biofilm spreading behavior.

Falling drops skating on a film of air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, Shmuel

2012-02-01

When a raindrop hits a window, the surface immediately becomes wet as the water spreads. Indeed, this common observation of a drop impacting a surface is ubiquitous in our everyday experience. I will show that the impact of a drop on a surface is a much richer, more complex phenomenon than our simple experience may suggests: To completely wet the surface the drop must first expel all the air beneath it; however, this does not happened instantaneously. Instead, a very thin film of air, only a few tens of nanometers thick, remains trapped between the falling drop and the surface as the fluid spreads. The thin film of air serves to lubricate the drop enabling the fluid to skate laterally outward at strikingly high velocities. Simultaneously, the wetting fluid spreads inward at a much slower velocity, trapping a bubble of air within the drop. However, these events occur at diminutive length scales and fleeting time scales; therefore, to visualize them we develop new imaging modalities that are sensitive to the behavior right at the surface and that have time resolution superior to even the very fastest cameras. These imaging techniques reveal that the ultimate wetting of the surface occurs through a completely new mechanism, the breakup of the thin film of air through a spinodal like dewetting process that breaks the cylindrical symmetry of the impact and drives an anomalously rapid spreading of a wetting front. These results are in accord with recent theoretical predictions and challenge the prevailing paradigm in which contact between the liquid and solid occurs immediately, and spreading is dominated by the dynamics of a single contact line.

A Spatial Modeling Approach to Predicting the Secondary Spread of Invasive Species Due to Ballast Water Discharge

PubMed Central

Sieracki, Jennifer L.; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M.; Chadderton, W. Lindsay

2014-01-01

Ballast water in ships is an important contributor to the secondary spread of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we use a model previously created to determine the role ballast water management has played in the secondary spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) to identify the future spread of one current and two potential invasive species in the Great Lakes, the Eurasian Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus), killer shrimp (Dikerogammarus villosus), and golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), respectively. Model predictions for Eurasian Ruffe have been used to direct surveillance efforts within the Great Lakes and DNA evidence of ruffe presence was recently reported from one of three high risk port localities identified by our model. Predictions made for killer shrimp and golden mussel suggest that these two species have the potential to become rapidly widespread if introduced to the Great Lakes, reinforcing the need for proactive ballast water management. The model used here is flexible enough to be applied to any species capable of being spread by ballast water in marine or freshwater ecosystems. PMID:25470822

Microenvironmental cooperation promotes early spread and bistability of a Warburg-like phenotype.

PubMed

Fernandez-de-Cossio-Diaz, Jorge; De Martino, Andrea; Mulet, Roberto

2017-06-08

We introduce an in silico model for the initial spread of an aberrant phenotype with Warburg-like overflow metabolism within a healthy homeostatic tissue in contact with a nutrient reservoir (the blood), aimed at characterizing the role of the microenvironment for aberrant growth. Accounting for cellular metabolic activity, competition for nutrients, spatial diffusion and their feedbacks on aberrant replication and death rates, we obtain a phase portrait where distinct asymptotic whole-tissue states are found upon varying the tissue-blood turnover rate and the level of blood-borne primary nutrient. Over a broad range of parameters, the spreading dynamics is bistable as random fluctuations can impact the final state of the tissue. Such a behaviour turns out to be linked to the re-cycling of overflow products by non-aberrant cells. Quantitative insight on the overall emerging picture is provided by a spatially homogeneous version of the model.

AirMISR WISCONSIN

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-04-25

AirMISR WISCONSIN 2000 Project Title:  AirMISR Discipline:  ... Platform:  ER-2 Spatial Coverage:  Wisconsin (35.92, 43.79)(-97.94, -90.23) Spatial Resolution:  ... Order Data Readme Files:  Readme Wisconsin Read Software Files :  IDL Code ...

Evaluating Spatial Interaction Models for Regional Mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Wesolowski, Amy; O’Meara, Wendy Prudhomme; Eagle, Nathan; Tatem, Andrew J.; Buckee, Caroline O.

2015-01-01

Simple spatial interaction models of human mobility based on physical laws have been used extensively in the social, biological, and physical sciences, and in the study of the human dynamics underlying the spread of disease. Recent analyses of commuting patterns and travel behavior in high-income countries have led to the suggestion that these models are highly generalizable, and as a result, gravity and radiation models have become standard tools for describing population mobility dynamics for infectious disease epidemiology. Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa may not conform to these models, however; physical accessibility, availability of transport, and cost of travel between locations may be variable and severely constrained compared to high-income settings, informal labor movements rather than regular commuting patterns are often the norm, and the rise of mega-cities across the continent has important implications for travel between rural and urban areas. Here, we first review how infectious disease frameworks incorporate human mobility on different spatial scales and use anonymous mobile phone data from nearly 15 million individuals to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Kenyan population. We find that gravity and radiation models fail in systematic ways to capture human mobility measured by mobile phones; both severely overestimate the spatial spread of travel and perform poorly in rural areas, but each exhibits different characteristic patterns of failure with respect to routes and volumes of travel. Thus, infectious disease frameworks that rely on spatial interaction models are likely to misrepresent population dynamics important for the spread of disease in many African populations. PMID:26158274

Morphology of oceanic ridges in spreading colloidal suspensions: Influence of spreading rate and lithospheric thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibrant, A.; Davaille, A.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.

2016-12-01

Oceanic ridges exhibit significant changes in their structural, morphological, and volcanic characteristics with changes in spreading velocity. However, separating the role of correlated affects such as spreading rate and lithospheric thickness on the segmentation of the ridge axis is difficult with only field data. The goal of this study is (a) to conduct properly scaled laboratory simulations of oceanic ridges, and (b) to investigate how the morphology and geometry of spreading-normal oceanic ridges vary separately with extension rate and lithospheric thickness. We present a series of analogue experiments using colloidal silica dispersions as an Earth analogue. Saline water solutions placed in contact with these fluids, cause formation of a skin through salt diffusion, whose rheology evolves from purely viscous to elastic and brittle with increasing salinity. Applying a fixed spreading rate to this pre-formed, brittle plate resulting in cracks, faults and axial ridge structures. Lithospheric (skin) thickness at a given extension rate is varied by changing salinity of the surface water layer. With increasing spreading rate, we observe several regimes: (1) at the slowest spreading rates, the spreading axis is composed of several segments separated by non-transform offsets and has a fault-bounded, deep, U-shaped axial valley. The axis has a large sinuosity, rough topography, and jumps repeatedly. (2) At intermediate spreading rates, the spreading axis shows low sinuosity, overlapping spreading centers (OSC) , a smooth axial morphology, and very few to no jumps. The axial valley is shallow and shows a V-shape morphology. The OSCs have a ratio of length to width of 3 to 1. (3) At faster spreading rates, the axis is continuous and presents an axial high topography. (4) At the fastest spreading rates tested, the spreading axis is again segmented. Each segment is offset by well developed transform faults and the axis has a sinuosity comparable to those of regimes 2 and 3

Quantifying rates of cell migration and cell proliferation in co-culture barrier assays reveals how skin and melanoma cells interact during melanoma spreading and invasion.

PubMed

Haridas, Parvathi; Penington, Catherine J; McGovern, Jacqui A; McElwain, D L Sean; Simpson, Matthew J

2017-06-21

Malignant spreading involves the migration of cancer cells amongst other native cell types. For example, in vivo melanoma invasion involves individual melanoma cells migrating through native skin, which is composed of several distinct subpopulations of cells. Here, we aim to quantify how interactions between melanoma and fibroblast cells affect the collective spreading of a heterogeneous population of these cells in vitro. We perform a suite of circular barrier assays that includes: (i) monoculture assays with fibroblast cells; (ii) monoculture assays with SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells; and (iii) a series of co-culture assays initiated with three different ratios of SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells and fibroblast cells. Using immunostaining, detailed cell density histograms are constructed to illustrate how the two subpopulations of cells are spatially arranged within the spreading heterogeneous population. Calibrating the solution of a continuum partial differential equation to the experimental results from the monoculture assays allows us to estimate the cell diffusivity and the cell proliferation rate for the melanoma and the fibroblast cells, separately. Using the parameter estimates from the monoculture assays, we then make a prediction of the spatial spreading in the co-culture assays. Results show that the parameter estimates obtained from the monoculture assays lead to a reasonably accurate prediction of the spatial arrangement of the two subpopulations in the co-culture assays. Overall, the spatial pattern of spreading of the melanoma cells and the fibroblast cells is very similar in monoculture and co-culture conditions. Therefore, we find no clear evidence of any interactions other than cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intensity dependent spread theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holben, Richard

1990-01-01

The Intensity Dependent Spread (IDS) procedure is an image-processing technique based on a model of the processing which occurs in the human visual system. IDS processing is relevant to many aspects of machine vision and image processing. For quantum limited images, it produces an ideal trade-off between spatial resolution and noise averaging, performs edge enhancement thus requiring only mean-crossing detection for the subsequent extraction of scene edges, and yields edge responses whose amplitudes are independent of scene illumination, depending only upon the ratio of the reflectance on the two sides of the edge. These properties suggest that the IDS process may provide significant bandwidth reduction while losing only minimal scene information when used as a preprocessor at or near the image plane.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface soil across the Tibetan Plateau: spatial distribution, source and air-soil exchange.

PubMed

Wang, Chuanfei; Wang, Xiaoping; Gong, Ping; Yao, Tandong

2014-01-01

There are limited data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in both the atmosphere and soil of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Concentrations of PAHs were therefore measured in 13 XAD resin-based passive air samplers and 41 surface (0-5 cm) soil samples across the TP. The average concentration of atmospheric PAHs was 5.55 ng/m(3), which was lower than that reported for other background areas, but higher than the Arctic. Concentrations in the soils fell in a wide range from 5.54 to 389 ng/g, with an average of 59.9 ng/g. Elevation was found to play an important role in determining the spatial distribution of soil PAHs. The air-soil exchange state showed that the soils of the TP will likely remain as a sink for high molecular weight PAHs, but may become a potential "secondary source" for low molecular weight PAHs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern of severe acute respiratory syndrome in-out flow in 2003 in Mainland China.

PubMed

Xu, Chengdong; Wang, Jinfeng; Wang, Li; Cao, Chunxiang

2014-12-31

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread to 32 countries and regions within a few months in 2003. There were 5327 SARS cases from November 2002 to May 2003 in Mainland China, which involved 29 provinces, resulted in 349 deaths, and directly caused economic losses of $18.3 billion. This study used an in-out flow model and flow mapping to visualize and explore the spatial pattern of SARS transmission in different regions. In-out flow is measured by the in-out degree and clustering coefficient of SARS. Flow mapping is an exploratory method of spatial visualization for interaction data. The findings were as follows. (1) SARS in-out flow had a clear hierarchy. It formed two main centers, Guangdong in South China and Beijing in North China, and two secondary centers, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, both connected to Beijing. (2) "Spring Festival travel" strengthened external flow, but "SARS panic effect" played a more significant role and pushed the external flow to the peak. (3) External flow and its three typical kinds showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, such as self-spreading flow (spatial displacement of SARS cases only within the province or municipality of onset and medical locations); hospitalized flow (spatial displacement of SARS cases that had been seen by a hospital doctor); and migrant flow (spatial displacement of SARS cases among migrant workers). (4) Internal and external flow tended to occur in younger groups, and occupational differentiation was particularly evident. Low-income groups of male migrants aged 19-35 years were the main routes of external flow. During 2002-2003, SARS in-out flow played an important role in countrywide transmission of the disease in Mainland China. The flow had obvious spatial heterogeneity, which was influenced by migrants' behavior characteristics. In addition, the Chinese holiday effect led to irregular spread of SARS, but the panic effect was more apparent in the middle and late stages of the epidemic. These findings

Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

PubMed

Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

2016-06-01

This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.