Potential effects on health of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haines, A.; Parry, M.

1993-12-01

Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important tomore » monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.« less

Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

2010-01-01

Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Cronin, Matthew A.

2017-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (103–107 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.

A Social Science Guide for Communication on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, C.; Marx, S.; Markowitz, E.

2014-12-01

Researchers from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) published "The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public" in 2009. This landmark guide provided climate change communicators a synthesis of the social science research that was pertinent to understanding how people think about climate change and how the practice could be improved. In the fall of 2014 this guide will be rereleased, with a new title, and in a partnership between CRED and ecoAmerica. The updated guide addresses how and why Americans respond in certain ways to climate change and explains how communicators can apply best practices to their own work. The guide, which includes research from a range of social science fields including psychology, anthropology, communications, and behavioral economics, is designed to be useful for experienced and novice communicators alike. Included in the guide are strategies to boost engagement, common mistakes to avoid, and best practices that organizations around the world have used to meaningfully engage individuals and groups on climate change. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of the main findings and tips from the 2014 climate change communication guide. It will provide a deeper look at a few of the key points that are crucial for increasing audience engagement with climate change including understanding how identity shapes climate change, how to lead with solutions, and how to bring the impacts of climate change close to home. It will highlight tips for motivating positive behavior change that will lead people down the path toward solutions. Finally, it will address the benefits and challenges associated with producing a communication guide and insight into synthesizing social science research findings into a usable format for a variety of audiences.

The Changing Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Stephen H.

1989-01-01

Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

Climate Change and Food Safety: Beyond Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziska, L. H.; Crimmins, A. R.

2016-12-01

There is merited interest in determining the extent of climate disruption on agricultural production and food security. However, additional aspects of food security, including food safety, nutrition and distribution have, overall, received less attention. Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part of the ongoing National Climate Assessment, began a directed effort to evaluate the vulnerability of climate change to these under-represented aspects of food security for developed countries. Based on this extensive review of current science, several key findings were developed: (a) Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins; (b) Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways; (c) The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, including cereals, will decrease in response to the ongoing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide; (d) Increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change may disrupt food distribution. These findings will be presented as a means to describe the state of the science and expand on food security research in the broader context of public health and climate change.

Climate, Water and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2004-05-01

Climate and Energy (CE) is a new Nordic research project with funding from Nordic Energy Research (NEFP) and the Nordic energy sector. The project has the objective of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on Nordic renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, bio-fuels and solar energy. This will include assessment of the power production of the hydropower dominated Nordic energy system and its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change on both temporal and spatial scales; assessment of the impacts of extremes including floods, droughts, storms, seasonal patterns and variability. Within the CE project several thematic groups work on specific issues of climatic change and their impacts on renewable energy. A primary aim of the CE climate group is to supply a standard set of common scenarios of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent global and regional climate change experiments. The snow and ice group has chosen glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. Preliminary work with dynamic modelling and climate scenarios shows a dramatic response of glacial runoff to increased temperature and precipitation. The statistical analysis group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group has selected and quality controlled time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. Preliminary work using multivariate analysis on stream flow and climate variables shows strong linkages with the long term atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. The hydrological modelling group has already reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different approaches of transferring the climate change signal into hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios. Furthermore, comprehensive assessment and mapping of impact of climate change will be produced for the whole Nordic region based on the scenarios from the CE-climate group.

Misconceptions Surrounding Climate Change: A Review of the Literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, C. M.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2011-12-01

Misconceptions about climate change abound in every corner of society. The result manifests itself ranging from apprehension to total disregard for climate change conditions. According to several sources, however, a large percentage of the U. S. population do, indeed indicate some concern over global warming and climate change in general. These climate change misconceptions are numerous and include, to name a few; confusion between weather and climate, how greenhouse gases are affecting the earth, the effects of ozone depletion, earth's natural cycles, volcanic activity, nuclear waste and a host of other anthropogenic influences. This paper is a review of the current research literature relating to climate change misconceptions. These errant views will be addressed, cataloged, enumerated, and ranked to get a grasp on where the general population, politicians, scientists, and educators as well as students stand on informed climate change information. The categories where misconceptions arise have been identified in this literature review study and include the following: Natural cycles of the earth, ecological which include deforestation, urban development and any human intervention on the environment, educational - including teacher strategies, student understanding and textbook updates, emotional, ozone layer and its interactions, polar ice, political regulations, mandates and laws, pollution from human sources as well as from nature, religious beliefs and dogma and social beliefs. We suggest appropriate solutions for addressing these misconceptions, especially in the classroom setting, and broadly include available funding sources for work in climate change education. Some solutions include need for compilation of appropriate education resources and materials for public use, need for the development of educational materials that appropriately address the variety of publics, and need for programs that are conducting climate change education research and EPO work to communicate and share resources in a common community. Many organizations are addressing these critical needs and we will compile these efforts in our analysis as well.

Health Effects of Climate Change (Environmental Health Student Portal)

MedlinePlus

... your health. Read About It Climate Change and Human Health (Public Broadcasting Services (including their teacher resources)) - Web ... of the potential effects of climate change on human health. Climate and Health Program: Health Effects (Centers for ...

78 FR 40935 - Amendments to Delegations of Authority

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-09

... policy issues relating to the effects of climate change on agriculture and forestry, including broader... relating to the effects of climate change on agriculture and forestry, including broader issues that affect... responsibilities of the Climate Change Program Office (CCPO) within the Office of the Chief Economist. CCPO, known...

An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.

PubMed

Applebaum, Katie M; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J

2016-03-01

Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2007-12-01

Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Allison

2012-01-01

This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.

2009-12-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

Climate Change in the Classroom: Patterns, Motivations, and Barriers to Instruction among Colorado Science Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wise, Sarah B.

2010-01-01

A large online survey of Colorado public school science teachers (n = 628) on the topic of climate change instruction was conducted in 2007. A majority of Earth science teachers were found to include climate and climate change in their courses. However, the majority of teachers of other science subjects only informally discuss climate change, if…

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

PubMed

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaye, J. A.

2009-12-01

The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could lead to rapid changes in ice-sheet dynamics that could impact future sea-level rise and tipping points in biological systems (including those that may be associated with ocean acidification). 5. Improve understanding of the most effective ways to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as unintended consequences of such actions. Research will help to identify the desired mix of mitigation options necessary to control the rate and magnitude of climate change, and to examine possible unintended consequences of mitigation options. 6. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is important to improve understanding of how to enhance society’s capacity to adapt to a changing climate in the context of other environmental stresses.

78 FR 75313 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition To Reclassify...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-11

...), and climate change (Factor A). Additionally, the existing regulatory mechanisms are inadequate to...). Climate Change The term ``climate change'' refers to a change in the mean or variability of one or more.... 78). Various types of changes in climate can have direct or indirect effects on species, including...

Adaptation of trees, forests and forestry to climate change

Treesearch

Daniel J. Chmura; Glenn T. Howe; Paul D. Anderson; Bradley J. St Clair

2010-01-01

Ongoing climate change will likely expose trees and forests to new stresses and disturbances during this century. Trees naturally adapt to changes in climate, but their natural adaptive ability may be compromised by the rapid changes projected for this century. In the broad sense, adaptation to climate change also includes the purposeful adaptation of human systems,...

Climate Prediction Center - Outreach: 41st Annual Climate Diagnostics &

Science.gov Websites

the University of Maine Climate Change Institute and School of Earth and Climate Sciences and is co (drought, heat waves, severe weather, tropical cyclones) in the framework of climate variability and change and including the use of paleoclimate data. Arctic climate variability and change, and linkages to

Health-sector responses to address the impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Dhimal, Meghnath; Dhimal, Mandira Lamichhane; Pote-Shrestha, Raja Ram; Groneberg, David A; Kuch, Ulrich

2017-09-01

Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme - Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010-2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015-2020 and its implementation plan (2016-2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016-2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review.

PubMed

Lotfy, Wael M

2014-11-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review

PubMed Central

Lotfy, Wael M.

2013-01-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people’s health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt. PMID:25685530

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

PubMed Central

Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N

2014-01-01

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552

Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dauncey, Guy

This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

2016-01-01

What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

What Is Motivating Middle-School Science Teachers to Teach Climate Change?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-01-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers…

Impacts of climate change on Southwestern working lands and water resources: a report from the inaugural year of the USDA Southwest climate hub

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In February 2014 the USDA established seven regional climate hubs to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The SW region encompasses six states (including Hawaii) and provides highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit and grapes. ...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2009-01-01

Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

Disconnects Between Audiences, Resources, and Initiatives: Key Findings of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller-Karger, F. E.; Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Gilbes, F.; Trotz, M.; McKayle, C.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Meisels, G.; Peterson, M.; Reynolds, C. J.

2012-12-01

The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership focused on defining a plan for effective education on climate change and its salient issues in coastal communities Florida and the US Caribbean territories. The approach included assessing perceptions and needs of stakeholders, evaluating the nature of available educational and information resources, and establishing a partnership that includes the public and professional organizations most relevant in planning and in addressing the resiliency of coastal communities. Information gathering activities included surveys among K-12 educators and students on climate change perceptions and current classroom activities in both Florida and the Caribbean territories; surveys of professional urban and land-use planners across Florida regarding their understanding of related in their professional practice; and conducting an inventory of relevant educational materials and information resources. Survey results showed a range of misperceptions about climate change, its causes and its likely impacts. At present, students and teachers in high and middle schools show poor understanding of climate science, and minimal time is spent in instruction on climate change in science courses in Florida and Puerto Rico schools. Also, there has to be professional development efforts and access to rich instructional content in a continuum spanning schools and professional communities including planners (which we surveyed). Architects and engineers are communities that also need to be surveyed and included in future efforts. A major obstacle to efforts at providing continuing education for planners and municipal officials is the lack of consensus on and access to regionally-specific scientific data regarding climate impacts and the relevant instructional content. It is difficult for professionals to prepare for climate change if they cannot define impacts in the Florida-Caribbean region and its coastal urban areas. Across over 1000 websites and online information resources on climate change reviewed for this project, less than a dozen items were identified that address climate change issues and impacts relevant to Florida and the US Caribbean Territories. This represents a serious issue for planners, who need to make effective arguments for climate adaptation strategies to the public and to public officials. These disconnects between stakeholder information and education needs, and available educational content and informational resources, is a significant obstacle to any future public education efforts on climate change in the US most vulnerable regions of the US.

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net radiation, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, net primary production, and net ecosystem production were discussed.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Genetics of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2012-01-01

The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.

Climate Change Education Roundtable: A Coherent National Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storksdieck, M.; Feder, M.; Climate Change Education Roundtable

2010-12-01

The Climate Change Education (CCE) Roundtable fosters ongoing discussion of the challenges to and strategies for improving public understanding of climate science and climate change among federal agencies, the business community, non-profit, and academic sectors. The CCE Roundtable is provides a critical mechanism for developing a coherent, national strategy to advance climate change education guided by the best available research evidence. Through its meetings and workshops, the roundtable brings together 30 federal and state policymakers, educators, communications and media experts, and members from the business and scientific community. The roundtable includes a number of ex officio members from federal agencies with dedicated interests in climate change education, including officials from the National Science Foundation’s EHR Directorate and its collaborating partner divisions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Interior, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Education. The issues that are addressed by the roundtable include: - ways to incorporate knowledge about learning and understanding in developing informative programs and materials for decision-makers who must cope with climate change - the design of educational programs for professionals such as local planners, water managers, and the like, to enable them to better understand the implications of climate change for their decisions - development of training programs for scientists to help them become better communicators to decision-makers about implications of, and solutions to climate change - coordinated and collaborative efforts at the national level between federal agencies and other stakeholders This presenation will describe how the roundtable is fostering a coherent direction for climate change education.

High School Teachers and Students Knowledge and Views about Climate Change, a Nice NASA Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.; Lambert, J. L.

2014-12-01

One factor for some Americans being confused about climate change is their lack of understanding its underlying science concepts (Somerville & Hassol, 2011). In spite of this, climate change has been under-emphasized in school curricula (Bardsley & Bardsley, 2007). This is an important challenge for science educators, especially given the increasing public awareness of climate change impacts in their everyday lives (NCADAC, 2013).One way to address this challenge is to involve teachers in professional learning projects with the expectation that their enhanced content and pedagogical knowledge about climate change will transfer into more effective instruction resulting in increased student learning. For teacher educators, this translates into providing vibrant professional learning activities that energize and engage science teachers to develop interesting lessons that stimulate their students to learn important science concepts and develop positive attitudes to science. This study examined content knowledge and views about climate change of 33 high school science teachers and their1050 students who participated in lessons developed in a NASA-funded professional learning project. The teachers participated in a seven-day climate change summer institute and received in-classroom follow-up support throughout the school year. Teacher data sources included a background survey (undergraduate majors, number of years teaching science), science teaching self-efficacy (STEBI-A) scores, Climate Science Inventory of Knowledge (CSIK), and Six-America's Views on Climate Change. Student data included journal entries, and pre-post measures using the CSIK and Six-Americas instruments. T-tests and ANOVA showed that both students and their teachers increased in climate science knowledge. Teachers' views about climate change were more aligned to climate scientists' views. Teachers also increased in their science teaching self-efficacy and those with higher self-efficacy demonstrated higher climate change science knowledge. In addition to these data, the professional learning model and examples of the hands-on activities utilized by teachers will be shared in this presentation. The Logic Model is included below to provide an overall picture of the project.

Leveraging the Novel Climates of Arboreta to Understand Tree Responses to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettinger, A.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Joly, S.

2016-12-01

Rising global temperatures are expected to cause large-scale changes to forests, including altered mortality and recruitment rates, and dramatic changes in species composition, but exactly how tree growth will be affected by climate change is uncertain. Studies to date suggest that temperate and boreal tree responses to warming range from growing faster, slower, or at unchanged rates. Here we present an approach and preliminary findings that will improve predictions of tree responses to climate change by studying how tree traits, including phenology (e.g. the timing of leaf-out), wood density, leaf mass area, and height, relate to climate sensitivity (i.e. growth responses to annual changes in climate, Figure 1). We demonstrate how arboreta can be used to understand tree responses to climate change using 500 individuals across 65 tree species growing at the Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts. Arboretum provide a unique opportunities for understanding temperate tree responses to climate change: they provide large collections of woody species growing together that enable traits to be studied across diverse species in a phylogenetic context. Furthermore, many species in arboreta are nonnative and have been exposed to "novel" climates that may resemble future conditions in their native distributions. We use a phylogenetic approach to understand how annual growth and climate sensitivity relate to focal traits, and asses what these findings may tell us about tree responses to climate change.

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D.

2009-12-01

The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. These and many other findings will be discussed in the presentation.

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat...

Flexible stocking as a strategy for enhancing ranch profitability in the face of a changing and variable climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote networking within and among these two groups. For example, we will lead joint workshops where K-12 teachers can share their in-depth understanding of climate change concepts and links to education standards, while free-choice-learning practitioners can provide their expertise in engaging diverse audiences and supporting more learner-centered teaching. Our resources will further support a formal-informal bridge by helping both groups of educators make climate change relevant to their audiences with local examples of impacts and ways to mitigate or adapt to these impacts. Our project includes design-based research, and thus we will examine how our professional development is translated into practice at different types of institutions and the impact of our approach on enhancing formal-informal education collaborations focused on climate change education.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Climate Matters: Increasing Climate Literacy Through Broadcast Meteorologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, T. J.; Placky, B. W.

2015-12-01

Broadcast meteorologists are among the most trusted members of the media landscape and they have a unique opportunity to reach the broad public with information about climate change. A recent survey by Maibach, et al. (2015) has shown that more than 90% of TV weathercasters think that their audience is at least somewhat interested in learning about the local impacts of climate change and 7 in 10 think that it is appropriate for them to report the science of climate change to their audience. But about half of these TV weathercasters have experienced obstacles to reporting climate change - citing lack of time to research and produce material, in addition to lack of access to appropriate visuals/graphics and access to trusted scientific information. Climate Matters is an NSF funded program that partners with broadcast meteorologists to deliver scientifically sound climate change information to the public that is local and relevant. A team of climate scientists, meteorologists, data analysts, journalists, and multimedia artists analyze and prepare content on a weekly basis so that it may be readily included in a broadcast weather segment, online or during community outreach. The program started as a pilot project with just one meteorologist in 2010 before Climate Central launched a full-time, nationwide program in 2012. Since then, Climate Matters has grown to include over 250 meteorologists strong and in more than 100 markets across the country, including Spanish language TV stations.

Responses of large mammals to climate change.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

2014-01-01

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

Responses of large mammals to climate change

PubMed Central

Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

2014-01-01

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Climate-growth relationships for yellow-poplar across structural and site quality gradients in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Tara L. Keyser; Peter M. Brown

2014-01-01

Forecasted changes in climate across the southeastern US include an increase in temperature along with more variable precipitation patterns, including an increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. As such, the management of forests for increased resistance or resilience to the direct and indirect effects of climate change, including decreased tree- and...

Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion

Treesearch

S. E. Litschert; D. M. Theobald; T. C. Brown

2014-01-01

Forests in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion surround the headwaters of several major rivers in the western and central US. Future climatic changes will increase the incidence of wildfire in those forests, and will likely lead to changes in downstream water quality, including sediment loads.We estimated soil loss under the historic climate and two IPCC climate change...

Linking Climate Change Education through the Integration of a Kite-Borne Remote Sensing System: Linking Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xie, Yichun; Henry, Andy; Bydlowski, David; Musial, Joseph

2014-01-01

A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn…

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-06

climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call “decision-scaling,” reveals the core sensitivity of...DoD installations to climate change . It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems...including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

PubMed Central

Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D H; McMichael, A J; Woodward, A; Cox, J S

2001-01-01

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change. PMID:11516383

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

Global climate change and children's health: threats and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Sheffield, Perry E; Landrigan, Philip J

2011-03-01

Global climate change will have multiple effects on human health. Vulnerable populations-children, the elderly, and the poor-will be disproportionately affected. We reviewed projected impacts of climate change on children's health, the pathways involved in these effects, and prevention strategies. We assessed primary studies, review articles, and organizational reports. Climate change is increasing the global burden of disease and in the year 2000 was responsible for > 150,000 deaths worldwide. Of this disease burden, 88% fell upon children. Documented health effects include changing ranges of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue; increased diarrheal and respiratory disease; increased morbidity and mortality from extreme weather; changed exposures to toxic chemicals; worsened poverty; food and physical insecurity; and threats to human habitation. Heat-related health effects for which research is emerging include diminished school performance, increased rates of pregnancy complications, and renal effects. Stark variation in these outcomes is evident by geographic region and socioeconomic status, and these impacts will exacerbate health disparities. Prevention strategies to reduce health impacts of climate change include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation through multiple public health interventions. Further quantification of the effects of climate change on children's health is needed globally and also at regional and local levels through enhanced monitoring of children's environmental health and by tracking selected indicators. Climate change preparedness strategies need to be incorporated into public health programs.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2017-01-01

The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

Chapter 7: Developing climate-informed state-and-transition models

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; Jessica E. Halofsky; David R. Conklin; Joshua S. Halofsky; Dominique Bachelet; Becky K. Kerns

2014-01-01

Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included localized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturbances, and management...

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. PMID:23950785

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median -11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

Overview of Climate Confluence Security Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisman, J. P.

2011-12-01

Presentation will focus on an overview of the security perspectives based on the confluence considerations including energy, economics and climate change. This will include perspectives from reports generated by the Quadrennial Defense Review, Joint Forces Command, the Center for Strategic International Studies, MIT, the Inter-agency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Center for Naval Analysis, and other relevant reports. The presentation will highlight the connections between resource issues and climate change which can be interpreted into security concerns. General discussion of global issues, contextual review of AR4 WGII may be included and any other report updates as applicable. The purpose of this presentation is to give a rounded view of the general qualitative and quantitative perspectives regarding climate related security considerations.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

Inclusion of climate change strategies in municipal Integrated Development Plans: A case from seven municipalities in Limpopo Province, South Africa

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the main cause of observed global warming that leads to climate change. Climate change is now a global reality. In the South African political set-up, local municipalities are the structures that are in direct contact with communities and they draw up Integrated Development Plans (IDPs), which are reviewed and upgraded annually. The article seeks to investigate the extent to which climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are embedded IDPs in seven vulnerable municipalities in the Limpopo Province. The article conducted an in-depth content analysis of the IDPs of the seven municipalities and the results have revealed that these municipalities have not included adaptation and mitigation strategies adequately in their IDPs despite being the most vulnerable municipalities in the province. The article concludes that these municipalities have not as yet institutionalised climate change in their daily operations, planning and decision making. To this end, the paper recommends that local municipalities should include climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in their IDPs.

State Roles in the Global Climate Change Issue.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1995-02-01

Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently, the National Governors' Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994, 22 states have enacted laws or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these "no regrets" actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by 1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and 2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration's 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts, including integrated assessments, and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues.

Telling the Climate Change Story: Framing and Messaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassol, S. J.

2011-12-01

Scientists have important roles to play in communicating climate change, yet most scientists are not well versed in important aspects of communication. Scientists can improve their communication by helping to develop and deliver effectively framed messages. Research suggests that effective messages about climate change should include science-based descriptions of the risks posed by human-induced warming as well as information about solutions for a better future. Thus, telling the climate change story effectively involves clearly stating that human-induced climate change is happening now and having impacts on society, while also showing that it is not too late to make a difference for the future. For example, framing and messaging should include the fact that lower emissions pathways lead to less severe climate change and fewer impacts than higher emissions pathways. It also involves communicating that there is much we can do to alter our emissions pathway, and that doing these things has other benefits, for example, for human health and the economy. Scientists telling the climate change story should make the threats tangible and the opportunities clear.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

PubMed

Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

Sundangrass reproductive biomass responses under climate change scenarios in oak savannah and mesic prairie mesocosm communities

EPA Science Inventory

Potential climate change effects include shifts in the distribution of plant species and changes in reproductive output. We tested the hypothesis that environmental stressors such as elevated temperature and drought that are associated with climate change would increase the repr...

Flow Down! Can managing forests help maintain water supplies in the face of climate change?

Treesearch

Stephanie Laseter; Chelcy Miniat; James Vose

2014-01-01

Climate change can have a direct and indirect impacts on water resources. Direct impacts of climate change can be seen by the presence of more extreme weather events. Extreme weather events include things like heat waves and droughts. Droughts have a direct impact on water and water supply. The indirect impacts of climate change on water resources relate to temperature...

Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

2014-05-14

Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

A Faculty Workshop Model to Integrate Climate Change across the Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teranes, J. L.

2017-12-01

Much of the growing scientific certainty of human impacts on the climate system, and the implications of these impacts on current and future generations, have been discovered and documented in research labs in colleges and universities across the country. Often these institutions also take decisive action towards combatting climate change, by making significant reductions in greenhouse emissions and pledging to greater future reductions. Yet, there are still far too many students that graduate from these campuses without an adequate understanding of how climate change will impact them within their lifetimes and without adequate workforce preparation to implement solutions. It may be that where college and universities still have the largest influence on climate change adaption and mitigation is in the way that we educate students. Here I present a curriculum workshop model at UC San Diego that leverages faculty expertise to infuse climate change education across disciplines to enhance UC San Diego students' climate literacy, particularly for those students whose major focus is not in the geosciences. In this model, twenty faculty from a breadth of disciplines, including social sciences, humanities, arts, education, and natural sciences participated in workshops and developed curricula to infuse aspects of climate change into their existing undergraduate courses. We particularly encouraged development of climate change modules in courses in the humanities, social sciences and arts that are best positioned to address the important human and social dimensions of climate change. In this way, climate change content becomes embedded in current course offerings, including non-science courses, to increase climate literacy among a greater number and a broader cross-section of students.

Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.

PubMed

Grossman, Elena; Hathaway, Michelle; Bush, Kathleen F; Cahillane, Matthew; English, Dorette Q; Holmes, Tisha; Moran, Colleen E; Uejio, Christopher K; York, Emily A; Dorevitch, Samuel

2018-06-20

Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives. To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered. Cross-sectional survey and discussion. State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience. The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs. Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support. Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.

The contribution of human agricultural activities to increasing evapotranspiration is significantly greater than climate change effect over Heihe agricultural region.

PubMed

Zou, Minzhong; Niu, Jun; Kang, Shaozhong; Li, Xiaolin; Lu, Hongna

2017-08-18

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles. Understanding changes in ET and the relative contribution rates of human activity and of climate change at the basin scale is important for sound water resources management. In this study, changes in ET in the Heihe agricultural region in northwest China during 1984-2014 were examined using remotely-sensed ET data with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Correlation analysis identified the dominant factors that influence change in ET per unit area and those that influence change in total ET. Factor analysis identified the relative contribution rates of the dominant factors in each case. The results show that human activity, which includes factors for agronomy and irrigation, and climate change, including factors for precipitation and relative humidity, both contribute to increases in ET per unit area at rates of 60.93% and 28.01%, respectively. Human activity, including the same factors, and climate change, including factors for relative humidity and wind speed, contribute to increases in total ET at rates of 53.86% and 35.68%, respectively. Overall, in the Heihe agricultural region, the contribution of human agricultural activities to increased ET was significantly greater than that of climate change.

Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and surface climate. Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the...research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle , land-use and land-cover change, the global...entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system. Global Water Cycle – Research associated with

Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.

PubMed

Vonesch, Nicoletta; D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Melis, Paola; Remoli, Maria Elena; Ciufolini, Maria Grazia; Tomao, Paola

2016-01-01

Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population. Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study. Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.

Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

2014-12-01

Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2006-01-01

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Climate change and dead zones.

PubMed

Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

2015-04-01

Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed tomore » (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly non-environmental.« less

Physiological basis of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Bunnell, David B.; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cooke, Steven J.; Eliason, Erika J.; Rogers, Mark W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology.

Climate services for coping with climate change, drought, and extreme heat in the Mexico-U.S. border region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change poses challenges for northern México and the southern United States, including drought, extreme heat, and flooding. To aid society in preparing for climate- and weather-related risks, partners in the North American Climate Services Partnership have initiated several collaborations. Th...

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Andersen, Douglas C.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Nelson, S. Mark; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2012-01-01

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO2], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO2] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate-driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate-driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early-successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought-tolerant and late-successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate-driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Considerations for forest adaptation to climate change in sustainable production of wood/fiber/biomass and ecosystem services

Treesearch

Roger A. Sedjo

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect forests into the future. Although forests have an inherent resiliency that allows them to adapt to various disturbances, including past climate change, concerns are expressed that the rate of change of current and future climate may be more rapid than the ability of many forests to adapt. This paper examines the background of forest...

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

2015-01-01

The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.

PubMed

Booth, Mark

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Multidisciplinary approaches to climate change questions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.; LePage, Ben A.

2011-01-01

Multidisciplinary approaches are required to address the complex environmental problems of our time. Solutions to climate change problems are good examples of situations requiring complex syntheses of ideas from a vast set of disciplines including science, engineering, social science, and the humanities. Unfortunately, most ecologists have narrow training, and are not equipped to bring their environmental skills to the table with interdisciplinary teams to help solve multidisciplinary problems. To address this problem, new graduate training programs and workshops sponsored by various organizations are providing opportunities for scientists and others to learn to work together in multidisciplinary teams. Two examples of training in multidisciplinary thinking include those organized by the Santa Fe Institute and Dahlem Workshops. In addition, many interdisciplinary programs have had successes in providing insight into climate change problems including the International Panel on Climate Change, the Joint North American Carbon Program, the National Academy of Science Research Grand Challenges Initiatives, and the National Academy of Science. These programs and initiatives have had some notable success in outlining some of the problems and solutions to climate change. Scientists who can offer their specialized expertise to interdisciplinary teams will be more successful in helping to solve the complex problems related to climate change.

Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedman, S.

2012-12-01

Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency Agreements. EPA has provided GLRI funding for a diverse suite of climate change-related projects including Great Lakes climate change research and modeling; adaptation plan development and implementation; ecosystem vulnerability assessments; outreach and education programs; habitat restoration and protection projects that will increase ecosystem resilience; and other projects that address climate change impacts. This presentation will discuss how the GLRI is helping to improve the climate change science needed to support the Action Plan. It will further describe how the GLRI is helping coordinate climate change efforts among Great Lakes states, tribes, Federal agencies, and other stakeholders. Finally, it will discuss how the GLRI is facilitating adaptation planning by our Great Lakes partners. The draft Lake Superior Ecosystem Climate Change Adaptation Plan serves as a case study for an integrated, collaborative, and coordinated climate change effort.

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

2009-01-01

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Social controversy belongs in the climate science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Elizabeth M.; Tsurusaki, Blakely K.

2014-04-01

Scientists, educators and stakeholders are grappling with how to best approach climate change education for diverse audiences, a task made difficult due to persistent social controversy. This Perspective examines how sociocultural learning theories can inform the design and implementation of climate change education experiences for learners with varied understandings of and attitudes towards climate change. The literature demonstrates that explicitly addressing learners' social and community experiences, values and knowledge supports understandings of and increased concern about climate change. Science learning environments that situate climate change in its social context can support conceptual understandings, shift attitudes and increase the participation of diverse communities in responding to climate change. Examples are provided of successful programmes that attend to social dimensions and learners' previous experiences, including experiences of social controversy.

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.

PubMed

Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena

2013-03-01

Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change, human communities, and forests in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface environments

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Linda A. Joyce

2012-01-01

Human concerns about the effects of climate change on forests are related to the values that forests provide to human populations, that is, to the effects on ecosystem services derived from forests. Service values include the consumption of timber products, the regulation of climate and water quality, and aesthetic and spiritual values. Effects of climate change on...

Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

PubMed

Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

2014-12-03

This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

The Nevada NSF EPSCoR infrastructure for climate change science, education, and outreach project: highlights and progress on investigations of ecological change and water resources along elevational gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, L.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Arnone, J.; Devitt, D.; Riddle, B.; Young, M.

2010-12-01

In 2008, the Nevada System of Higher Education received a 5-year, $15 million grant from the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). The mission of the project is to create a statewide interdisciplinary program to stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach about the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem services (especially water resources), and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders. The overarching question that this effort will address is: how will climate change affect water resources, disturbance regimes and linked ecosystem and human services? While the overall project includes cyberinfrastructure, policy, education and climate modeling, this presentation will focus on the ecological change and water resources components. The goals of these two components are: 1) improving understanding of processes controlling local- and basin-wide impacts of climate on species dynamics, disturbance regimes, and water recharge rates; 2) evaluating interactions between landscape-level processes and biophysical indicators; 3) evaluating interactions between surface and groundwater systems; 4) predicting changes in wildfire regime, primary productivity, and biodiversity (including invasive species); and 5) assessing how interactions between water and ecology will differ under climate change and/or climate variability scenarios. To achieve these goals, the two components will quantify present-day climate variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales, including at multiple elevations within Nevada’s Basin and Range ecosystem continuum. This presentation will discuss key elements for achieving these goals, including the establishment of instrumented transects spanning a range of elevations and vegetation zones in eastern and southern Nevada.

Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

2014-01-01

Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Approaches to Climate Literacy at the American Museum of Natural History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, R. V.

2015-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) offers a suite of courses, workshops and special events in climate change education for audiences ranging from young children to adults and utilizing both online and in-person formats. These offerings are supported by rich digital resources including video, animations and data visualizations. These efforts have the potential to raise awareness of climate change, deepen understandings and improve public discourse and decision-making on this critical issue. For adult audiences, Our Earth's Future offers participants a five-week course at AMNH that focuses on climate change science, impacts and communication, taking advantage of both AMNH expertise and exhibitry. Online versions of this course include both a ten-week course as well as three different three-week thematic courses. (The longer course is now available as a MOOC in Coursera.) These activities have been supported by a grant from IMLS. The results of independent evaluation provide insight into participant needs and how they might be addressed. For K-12 educators, the Museum's Seminars on Science program of online teacher professional development offers, in collaboration with its higher education partners, a graduate course in climate change that is authored by both an AMNH curator and leading NASA scientists. Developed with support from both NASA and NSF, the course provides a semester-equivalent introduction to climate change science for educators, including digital resources, assignments and discussions for classroom use. The results of independent evaluation will be presented. For younger audiences, the presentation will highlight resources from the AMNH Ology site; television programming conducted in partnership with HBO; Science Bulletinsvideos that include current climate change research; resources related to the GRACE mission for tracking water from space; and special event programming at the Museum on climate change. This presentation will address the opportunities and challenges of climate change education in an informal science institution as well as enduring questions of institutional capacity, scale and sustainability.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data. PMID:24454550

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.

2014-01-01

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

2012-12-01

In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.

PubMed

English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-11-01

To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.

Environmental Health Indicators of Climate Change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative

PubMed Central

English, Paul B.; Sinclair, Amber H.; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-01-01

Objective To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. Data sources We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Data extraction Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. Data synthesis We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. Conclusions A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity. PMID:20049116

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Evans, Laurel; Sibley, Chris G; Ries, Jan; Cunningham, Andrew

2014-01-01

Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.

Investigating the Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Quality to Climate Change and Urbanization in 20 U.S. Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. E.; Weaver, C. P.; Butcher, J.; Parker, A.

2011-12-01

Watershed modeling was conducted in 20 large (15,000-60,000 km2), U.S. watersheds to address gaps in our knowledge of the sensitivity of U.S. streamflow, nutrient (N and P) and sediment loading to potential future climate change, and methodological challenges associated with integrating existing tools (e.g., climate models, watershed models) and datasets to address these questions. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically downscaled (50x50 km2) output from four of the GCMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report for the period 2041-2070 archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To explore the potential interaction of climate change and urbanization, model simulations also include urban and residential development scenarios for each of the 20 study watersheds. Urban and residential development scenarios were acquired from EPA's national-scale Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Watershed modeling was conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Here we present a summary of results for 5 of the study watersheds; the Minnesota River, the Susquehanna River, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint, the Salt/Verde/San Pedro, and the Willamette River Basins. This set of results provide an overview of the response to climate change in different regions of the U.S., the different sensitivities of different streamflow and water quality endpoints, and illustrate a number of methodological issues including the sensitivities and uncertainties associated with use of different watershed models, approaches for downscaling climate change projections, and interaction between climate change and other forcing factors, specifically urbanization and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Potential impacts of climate change on birds and trees of the eastern United States: newest climate scenarios and species abundance modelling techniques

Treesearch

L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; S.N. Matthews; M.P. Peters

2007-01-01

Climate change is affecting an increasing number of species the world over, and evidence is mounting that these changes will continue to accelerate. There have been many studies that use a modelling approach to predict the effects of future climatic change on ecological systems, including by us (Iverson et al. 1999, Matthews et al. 2004); this modelling approach uses a...

Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997-2009) relative to the period 1983-1995, and for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981-2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7-66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3-10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071-2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5-25.9 % and end of century 2.6-24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in future projections of streamflow.

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Sustained Large-Scale Collective Climate Action Supported by Effective Climate Change Education Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.

2017-12-01

Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be empowered to address the challenges of a new climate reality and ensure that all people are capable of taking an active role in shaping a sustainable future.

Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

2011-12-01

The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue with groups pursuing climate and climate change education.

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Patrick N. Behrens; Robert E. Keane; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho

2018-01-01

Projected rapid changes in climate will affect vegetation assemblages in the Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) region directly and indirectly. Direct effects include altered vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirect effects include changes in disturbance regimes (Chapter 8) and interactions with altered ecosystem processes (e.g., hydrology,...

Moving toward Collective Impact in Climate Change Literacy: The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Gold, Anne U.; Niepold, Frank; McCaffrey, Mark

2014-01-01

In recent years, various climate change education efforts have been launched, including federally (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, etc.) and privately funded projects. In addition, climate literacy and energy literacy frameworks have been developed and…

Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmberg, Marjorie O.

2010-01-01

This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Treesearch

Raymond G. Najjar; Christopher R. Pyke; Mary Beth Adams; Denise Breitburg; Carl Hershner; Michael Kemp; Robert Howarth; Margaret R. Mulholland; Michael Paolisso; David Secor; Kevin Sellner; Denice Wardrop; Robert Wood

2010-01-01

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations,...

Effects of climate change on cultural resources [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Tom H. Flanigan; Charmaine Thompson; William G. Reed

2018-01-01

As with all resources on public lands, cultural resources are subject to environmental forces such as climate change. Climate change can affect cultural resources directly (e.g., heat, precipitation) or indirectly (e.g., vegetation, wildfire, flooding). Cultural resources include archaeological sites, cultural landscapes, ethnohistoric and historic structures and...

Tools for adaptation and mitigation of climate change on southwestern working-lands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In February 2014, the USDA established 7 Hubs and 3 Sub Hubs across the nation to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. Specific vulnerabilities related to projected climatic changes in the Southwest (SW) include water scarcity, the effects of elevated ...

Student Media Production to Meet Challenges in Climate Change Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rooney-Varga, Juliette N.; Brisk, Angelica Allende; Adams, Elizabeth; Shuldman, Elizabeth; Rath, Kenneth

2014-01-01

While the need for effective climate change education is growing, this area of geoscience also poses unique educational challenges. These challenges include the politicization of climate change, the psychological and affective responses it elicits, and common misconceptions, which can all create barriers to learning. Here, we present an…

Top scientific organizations urge governments to tackle climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Commissariat, Tushna

2015-09-01

Some 24 of the UK's foremost academic and professional institutions, including the Royal Society and the Institute of Physics (IOP), which publishes Physics World, have issued a joint statement on climate change urging governments to take immediate action to avert the risks posed by the changing climate.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to western mountains and forests

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Observed climate changes in the Western Mountains and Forests bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a shift toward earlier timing of peak runoff. These climatic changes have resulted in widespread mortality in western forests, species range shifts and changes in phenology, productivity, and...

The Climate Change Attitude Survey: Measuring Middle School Student Beliefs and Intentions to Enact Positive Environmental Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, Rhonda; Knezek, Gerald

2015-01-01

The Climate Change Attitude Survey is composed of 15 Likert-type attitudinal items selected to measure students' beliefs and intentions toward the environment with a focus on climate change. This paper describes the development of the instrument and psychometric performance characteristics including reliability and validity. Data were gathered…

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol; Milosevic, Tijana

2017-05-01

This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

The Effectiveness of a Geospatial Technologies-Integrated Curriculum to Promote Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A. M.; Peffer, T.; Sahagian, D. L.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

This study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial technologies - integrated climate change curriculum (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/) to promote climate literacy in an urban school district. Five 8th grade Earth and Space Science classes in an urban middle school (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania) consisting of three different ability level tracks participated in the study. Data gathering methods included pre/posttest assessments, daily classroom observations, daily teacher meetings, and examination of student produced artifacts. Data was gathered using a climate change literacy assessment instrument designed to measure students' climate change content knowledge. The items included distractors that address misunderstandings and knowledge deficits about climate change from the existing literature. Paired-sample t-test analyses were conducted to compare the pre- and post-test assessment results. The results of these analyses were used to compare overall gains as well as ability level track groups. Overall results regarding the use of the climate change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts. Effect sizes were large (ES>0.8) and significant (p<0.001) for the entire assessment and for each ability level subgroup. Findings from classroom observations, assessments embedded in the curriculum, and the examination of all student artifacts revealed that the use of geospatial technologies enable middle school students to improve their knowledge of climate change and improve their spatial thinking and reasoning skills.

The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation.

PubMed

Hart, P Sol; Feldman, Lauren

2016-01-01

Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed.

The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation

PubMed Central

Hart, P. Sol; Feldman, Lauren

2016-01-01

Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed. PMID:27487117

Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

2013-04-01

The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory data analysis the approaches on climate time series, trend analysis and extreme events analysis are explained. Tools to describe relations within the data sets and significance tests further corroborate this. Within the weekly exercises that have to be prepared at home, the students work with self-selected climate data sets and apply the learned methods. The presentation and discussion of intermediate results by the students is as much part of the exercises as the illustration of possible methodological procedures by the teacher using exemplary data sets. The total time expenditure of the course is 270 hours with 90 attendance hours. The remainder consists of individual studies, e.g., preparation of discussions and presentations, statistical data analysis, and scientific writing. Different forms of examination are applied including written or oral examination, scientific report, presentation and portfolio work.

How Many Disciplines Does It Take to Tackle Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.

2015-12-01

Through my involvement in two multidisciplinary climate change education and outreach projects, the website 100 Views of Climate Change and Changing Climates @ Colorado State, I have come to understand that just as this problem is everybody's business, almost everybody has something to contribute to understanding and dealing with it. This is certainly true of the academic disciplines represented on college campuses, where faculty from nearly every department have relevant things to teach their students: speakers in a climate-change lecture series we organized came from 27 departments in 8 colleges, plus numerous other campus and local entities, and more could have been included. As one convener of this AGU session, I have worked to include a good sample of these varied and complementary disciplinary perspectives. Inevitably, though, this sample leaves significant gaps in what would constitute a robust cross-campus climate literacy, and I will talk about some of these missing disciplinary perspectives and why they are important.

The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Pru

2001-10-01

Nearly every aspect of the cloud forest is affected by regular cloud immersion, from the hydrological cycle to the species of plants and animals within the forest. Since the altitude band of cloud formation on tropical mountains is limited, the tropical montane cloud forest occurs in fragmented strips and has been likened to island archipelagoes. This isolation and uniqueness promotes explosive speciation, exceptionally high endemism, and a great sensitivity to climate. Global climate change threatens all ecosystems through temperature and rainfall changes, with a typical estimate for altitude shifts in the climatic optimum for mountain ecotones of hundreds of meters by the time of CO 2 doubling. This alone suggests complete replacement of many of the narrow altitude range cloud forests by lower altitude ecosystems, as well as the expulsion of peak residing cloud forests into extinction. However, the cloud forest will also be affected by other climate changes, in particular changes in cloud formation. A number of global climate models suggest a reduction in low level cloudiness with the coming climate changes, and one site in particular, Monteverde, Costa Rica, appears to already be experiencing a reduction in cloud immersion. The coming climate changes appear very likely to upset the current dynamic equilibrium of the cloud forest. Results will include biodiversity loss, altitude shifts in species' ranges and subsequent community reshuffling, and possibly forest death. Difficulties for cloud forest species to survive in climate-induced migrations include no remaining location with a suitable climate, no pristine location to colonize, migration rates or establishment rates that cannot keep up with climate change rates and new species interactions. We review previous cloud forest species redistributions in the paleo-record in light of the coming changes. The characteristic epiphytes of the cloud forest play an important role in the light, hydrological and nutrient cycles of the cloud forest and are especially sensitive to atmospheric climate change, especially humidity, as the epiphytes can occupy incredibly small eco-niches from the canopy to crooks to trunks. Even slight shifts in climate can cause wilting or death to the epiphyte community. Similarly, recent cloud forest animal redistributions, notably frog and lizard disappearances, may be driven by climate changes. Death of animals or epiphytes may have cascading effects on the cloud forest web of life. Aside from changes in temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness, other climate changes may include increasing dry seasons, droughts, hurricanes and intense rain storms, all of which might increase damage to the cloud forest. Because cloud forest species occupy such small areas and tight ecological niches, they are not likely to colonize damaged regions. Fire, drought and plant invasions (especially non-native plants) are likely to increase the effects of any climate change damage in the cloud forest. As has frequently been suggested in the literature, all of the above factors combine to make the cloud forest a likely site for observing climate change effects in the near future.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

PubMed

Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

2016-09-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2015-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

The GCRP Climate Health Assessment: From Scientific Literature to Climate Health Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, A. R.; Balbus, J. M.

2016-12-01

As noted by the new report from the US GCRP, the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, climate change is a significant threat to the health of the American people. Despite a growing awareness of the significance of climate change in general among Americans, however, recognition of the health significance of climate change is lacking. Not only are the general public and many climate scientists relatively uninformed about the myriad health implications of climate change; health professionals, including physicians and nurses, are in need of enhanced climate literacy. This presentation will provide an overview of the new GCRP Climate Health Assessment, introducing the audience to the systems thinking that underlies the assessment of health impacts, and reviewing frameworks that tie climate and earth systems phenomena to human vulnerability and health. The impacts on health through changes in temperature, precipitation, severity of weather extremes and climate variability, and alteration of ecosystems and phenology will be explored. The process of developing the assessment report will be discussed in the context of raising climate and health literacy within the federal government.

The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2016-12-01

There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is between 3 and 16 million, vs. between 35 and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive. Development and inclusive policies appears to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty much more than it reduces aggregated losses expressed in percentage of GDP.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

'Partners in clime': sustainable development and climate change--what can the National Health Service do?

PubMed

Cosford, P

2009-01-01

Climate change is arguably the biggest threat to health in the medium and long term. Necessary responses to this threat include adaptation, i.e. preparing to respond to the consequences of climate change, of which there are many in respect of health; and mitigation, i.e. reducing the activities that lead to climate change and, in particular, reducing the levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the most significant of which is carbon.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

2012-12-01

The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiehl, J. T.

2015-12-01

Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen I; Grace, James B

2010-11-09

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead.

PubMed

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-03-11

Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

PubMed Central

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-01-01

Global climate change is inevitable — the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies. PMID:18332386

Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...

Managing burned landscapes: Evaluating future management strategies for resilient forests under a warming climate

Treesearch

K. L. Shive; P. Z. Fule; C. H. Sieg; B. A. Strom; M. E. Hunter

2014-01-01

Climate change effects on forested ecosystems worldwide include increases in drought-related mortality, changes to disturbance regimes and shifts in species distributions. Such climate-induced changes will alter the outcomes of current management strategies, complicating the selection of appropriate strategies to promote forest resilience. We modelled forest growth in...

Climate change impacts on runoff, sediment, and nutrient loads in an agricultural watershed in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected climate change can impact various aspects of agricultural systems, including the nutrient and sediment loads exported from agricultural fields. This study evaluated the potential changes in runoff, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads using projected climate estimates from 2041 – 2070 ...

Cognitive Structures of University Students about Environmental Education, Climate Change and Consumption Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keles, Özgül; Gilbertson, Kenneth L.; Uzun, Naim

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine cognitive structures and the retention of knowledge about environmental education, climate change and consumption concepts. The field of Environmental Education is increasingly including both climate change and consumption in the context of sustainability. Thus, this research is investigating the…

Engaging Visitors in Climate Change Communication: A Case Study of Southern Florida's National Parks and Wildlife Refuges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beard, Caroline A.; Thompson, Jessica Leigh

2012-01-01

Through the lens of place-based climate change communication, this manuscript compares results from internal and external assessments of capacity to communicate about climate change at national parks and refuges in southern Florida. The internal survey sample included agency staff, stakeholders, community partners, and concessionaires; the…

Climate-Change Science and Policy: What Do We Know? What Should We Do

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-06

These briefing charts discuss climate change science and policy including: the essence of the challenge, five myths and their refutations, climate ... change risks and impact going forward, available options, how much mitigation, how soon?, mitigation supply curve and its implications, and the Obama Administration’s strategy.

Adaptation resources for agriculture: responding to climate variability and change in the midwest and northeast

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report is intended to provide perspective, information, and tools to support agricultural producers in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the U.S. in responding to climate variability and change. Climate change adaptation can be broadly defined to include all adjustments, both planned and unp...

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. Bymore » providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.« less

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.

2012-12-01

Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this effort has provided some shared understanding and general guidance, there is still a lack of guidance to make decisions at any level of the community. A recent memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget provides more specific guidance around the generation and utilization of evidence. For example, the amount of funding awarded through grants should be weighted by the level of the evidence supporting a proposed project. As the field of climate change education establishes an evidence base, study designs should address a greater number of internal validity threats through comparison groups and reliable common measures. In addition, OMB invites agencies to develop systematic measurement of costs and costs per outcome. A growing evidence base, one that includes data that includes costs and even monetizes benefits, can inform decisions based on the strongest returns on investments within a portfolio. This paper will provide examples from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation project that illustrate how NOAA is facing these challenges. This is intended to inform climate change educators, evaluators, and researchers in ways to integrate evaluation into the management of their programs while providing insight across the portfolio.

On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

Obama Presents Far-Reaching Climate Plan, Addresses Keystone Pipeline Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-07-01

Stating that climate change "is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," U.S. President Barack Obama took matters into his own hands and presented a broad-based climate action plan on 25 June. The plan, which relies on existing administrative authority and does not require congressional approval, includes three primary objectives: cutting carbon pollution in the United States, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Congbin

2017-10-01

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

Impacts of Irrigation on Daily Extremes in the Coupled Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Krakauer, Nir; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenka, Larissa; Kelly, Maxwell; Wada, Yoshihide

2014-01-01

Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models, simulation studies have revealed significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on daily extremes at the global scale. We simulate global climate for the year 2000 with and without irrigation to understand irrigation-induced changes. Our simulations reveal shifts in key climate-extreme metrics. These findings indicate that land cover and land use change may be an important contributor to climate extremes both locally and in remote regions including the low-latitudes.

Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

EPA Science Inventory

An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

2014-10-01

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long-term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.

PubMed

Prokopy, Linda S; Arbuckle, J G; Barnes, Andrew P; Haden, V R; Hogan, Anthony; Niles, Meredith T; Tyndall, John

2015-08-01

Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons.

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

2008-12-01

The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector partnership capability.

Bringing the Science of Climate Change to Elementary Students with new Classroom Activities from Elementary GLOBE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, L. S.; Hatheway, B.; Taylor, J.; Chambers, L. H.; Stanitski, D.

2016-12-01

To address the dearth of climate education resources at the elementary level, we have developed a new module of Elementary GLOBE to showcase the science of climate change for young learners. Elementary GLOBE builds K-4 student understanding of the science concepts and the practices of science research. At the heart of each Elementary GLOBE module is a fiction storybook, describing how three kids investigate a science question. Accompanying classroom activities allow students to explore the science concepts in the book in more depth and in a context appropriate for young learners. The book for the Elementary GLOBE climate module, "What in the World Is Happening to Our Climate?," is the account of an adventure to explore climate change, how it is affecting melting glacial ice and sea level rise, and how climate change is a problem that can be solved. Three hands-on activities, which will be presented at this session, allow students to explore the topics in greater depth including differences between weather and climate, how sea level rise affects coastal areas, and how they can shrink their carbon footprint to help address recent climate change. Each activity includes instructions for teachers, background information, and activity sheets for students, and is aligned to the Next Generation Science Standards and Common Core Math and Language Arts Standards. The storybook and activities were field tested in classrooms and reviewed by climate and Earth system scientists as well as elementary education and climate education specialists and educators to ensure scientific accuracy and clear explanations, and that the resources are age appropriate and reflect the needs of the climate education community. Other Elementary GLOBE modules include the science of seasonal change, water, soil, clouds, aerosols, and Earth as a system. All Elementary GLOBE educational resources are freely available online (www.globe.gov/elementaryglobe).

The economics of abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Perrings, Charles

2003-09-15

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

PubMed Central

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe. PMID:25452694

Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.

PubMed

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.

Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Arimi, Kayode S

2014-05-01

Undesirable impacts of climate change have been a common occurrence that has made fish farmers in developing countries adopt some climate-change adaptation strategies. However, little is known about determinants of climate-change adaptation strategies used by these fish farmers. This study, therefore, articulates novelties on adaptation to climate change, as well ascertains determinants of adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe, Lagos State, Nigeria. Climate change adaptation strategies mostly used by fish farmers include frequent seeking for early warning information about climate change (76.7%) and avoidance of areas susceptible to flooding (60.0%). Climate-change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were significantly influenced by access to early warning information (β = 7.21), knowledge of farmers about climate change adaptation strategies (β = 8.86), access to capital (β = 28.25), and participation in workshop and conferences (β = 37.19) but were reduced by number of fish stocking (β = -2.06). The adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were autonomous and mostly determined by the access to credit facilities and information. Development policy should focus on carbon capture and storage technology in order to reduce adverse impacts of climate change, as well as making early warning information on climate change available to fish farmers. These will enhance adaptation to climate change. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.

PubMed

Dhara, V Ramana; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2013-12-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: Implications for health care providers

PubMed Central

Dhara, V. Ramana; Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2013-01-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients. PMID:24521625

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

2013-09-10

Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The Psychological Effects of Climate Change on Children.

PubMed

Burke, Susie E L; Sanson, Ann V; Van Hoorn, Judith

2018-04-11

We review recent evidence on the psychological effects of climate change on children, covering both direct and indirect impacts, and discuss children's psychological adaptation to climate change. Both the direct and flow-on effects of climate change place children at risk of mental health consequences including PTSD, depression, anxiety, phobias, sleep disorders, attachment disorders, and substance abuse. These in turn can lead to problems with emotion regulation, cognition, learning, behavior, language development, and academic performance. Together, these create predispositions to adverse adult mental health outcomes. Children also exhibit high levels of concern over climate change. Meaning-focused coping promotes well-being and environmental engagement. Both direct and indirect climate change impacts affect children's psychological well-being. Children in the developing world will suffer the worst impacts. Mental health professionals have important roles in helping mitigate climate change, and researching and implementing approaches to helping children cope with its impacts.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

2013-02-01

Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

PubMed

Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

2009-12-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

False Balance in Climate Change Reporting Among TV Meteorologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Maibach, E.; Boykoff, M.; Broeckelman-Post, M.; Myers, T.; Perkins, D. R., IV

2017-12-01

False balance is the journalistic practice of giving equal weight to both sides of a story, regardless of an established truth and validity on one side. Despite widespread scientific agreement about the anthropogenic causes of climate change, false balance on the subject of climate change remains common in television despite a documented decline in other media. In this exploratory study, 452 American TV meteorologists were surveyed about their climate change beliefs and asked how often and why they present an opposing viewpoint when they present about human contributions to climate change. The results indicate that this practice is fairly common, with nearly 30% of TV meteorologists presenting an opposing viewpoint at least half the time or more frequently when they present about climate change. Weathercasters described including an opposing viewpoint in their stories for many different reasons, including that it is essential to objective and balanced reporting, that it is used to acknowledge different audience viewpoints, and because the science is perceived to be uncertain. The results also suggest that being more certain that climate change is happening, that it is primarily caused by humans, and perceiving the full extent of the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change, are associated with decreased frequency of presenting an opposing viewpoint. This is the first time the issue of false balance has been studied in the context of TV weathercasters, and while more research is needed, these results provide some preliminary evidence to suggest that increasing weathercasters' understanding of the scientific consensus of human caused climate change may help reduce false balance reporting. Furthermore, as meteorologists and weathercasters become more prominent reporters of local climate news, it will be important for them to have techniques to accurately report the science, while maintaining their sense of objectivity.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

PubMed

Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

2017-02-01

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Earth Futures: a General Education Sustainability Course at the Pennsylvania State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bralower, T. J.; Bice, D. M.; Barron, E. J.

2012-12-01

Earth in the Future: Predicting Climate Change and Its Impacts Over the Next Century has been taught at The Pennsylvania State University since 2000. The course is a general education course designed to give a broad survey of the science underlying climate change as well as the impacts on natural and human systems. The course has three major goals: (1) to provide an understanding of climate science and of the possible scenarios of how climate may change in the future; (2) to analyze the linkages between climate and major human and natural systems, including agriculture, water, ocean circulation, and coastal ecosystems, necessary to assess the potential impacts of climate change; and (3) to understand the potential responses to climate change, including both adaptation to, and mitigation of change. The general education course is the entry point for a new BS-degree program, Earth System Science and Policy (ESSP). Initially the course was taught face to face on a yearly basis. Recently we have developed an on-line version of the course, and, in Fall semester, 2012, we are teaching a revised version of the course face-to-face and on-line. Both versions of the course are being assessed using survey instruments developed for InTeGrate courses. The simultaneous instruction provides a unique opportunity to compare the strengths and weaknesses of the two different modes of education. From its beginning, the course has included laboratory exercises designed to enhance the student's understanding of climate science. The revised course includes laboratory exercises in every module, including STELLA-based model experiments. These exercises form an essential part of the on-line version of the course, however, the identical exercises are involved in the face-to-face version. In our presentation, we provide preliminary comparison of the two instructional modes as well as their effectiveness in recruiting students to the ESSP major.

Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

2015-12-01

Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, S.; Damschen, E.I.; Grace, J.B.

2010-01-01

Downscalingfromthe predictions ofgeneral climatemodels is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of howvariation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/ 2009) in a complexmontane landscape (the SiskiyouMountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 ??C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herbcommunity changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different andmoremodest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide communitylevel validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-09-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean Observations of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, Don

2016-01-01

The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Hibbard, K. A.

2016-12-01

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) will provide key input into the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). The report was initiated in 2016 under the guidance of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) as a new, stand-alone report of the state-of-science relating to climate change and its physical impacts. The report is undergoing peer and public review in late 2016 with the aim for final publication in the fourth quarter of 2017. CSSR will provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. CSSR will serve several purposes for NCA4, including 1) providing an updated detailed analysis of the findings of how climate change is affecting weather and climate across the United States, 2) providing an executive summary that will be used as the basis for the climate science discussion in NCA4, and 3) providing foundational information and projections for climate change, including extremes, to improve "end-to-end" consistency in sectoral, regional, and resilience analyses for NCA4. We will present a summary of the origins and development of CSSR, the writing team, the chapter topics and the relation of CSSR content to NCA4, other assessments and relevance to policy and research communities.

Final Report: Synthesis of aquatic climate change vulnerability assessments for the Interior West

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Carly K. Woodlief

2015-01-01

Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. In turn, impacts arising from climate change are far reaching because these...

Climate Change Indicators: Health and Society

MedlinePlus

... of the ways that climate change is affecting human health and society, including changes in Lyme disease, West ... season across the United States. Because impacts on human health are complex, often indirect, and dependent on multiple ...

Water Vapor Feedbacks to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David

1999-01-01

The response of water vapor to climate change is investigated through a series of model studies with varying latitudinal temperature gradients, mean temperatures, and ultimately, actual climate change configurations. Questions to be addressed include: what role does varying convection have in water vapor feedback; do Hadley Circulation differences result in differences in water vapor in the upper troposphere; and, does increased eddy energy result in greater eddy vertical transport of water vapor in varying climate regimes?

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs.

PubMed

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-09-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change.

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs

PubMed Central

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-01-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change. PMID:27991978

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Jane M. Wolken; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin; Sarah F. Trainor; Tara M. Barrett; Patrick F. Sullivan; A. David McGuire; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Paul E. Hennon; Erik A. Beever; Jeff S. Conn; Lisa K. Crone; David V. A' More; Nancy Fresco; Thomas A. Hanley; Knut Kielland; James J. Kruse; Trista Patterson; Edward A.G. Schuur; David L. Verbyla; John Yarie

2011-01-01

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of...

Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; Jacques Regniere; Christopher J. Fettig; E. Matthew Hansen; Jane L. Hayes; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rick G. Kelsey; Jose F. Negron; Steven J. Seybold

2010-01-01

Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality...

Assessing the impact of climate change on soil salinity development in agricultural areas using ground and satellite sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climatic patterns have impacted some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (2011-2015) and the recent 18-year above average annual rainfall and snowfall in the Red River Valley of the Midwestern USA (1993-2011). Climate change has imp...

75 FR 7440 - Oil and Gas Leasing on Lands Administered by the Dixie National Forest, Supplemental Information...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-19

... climate change and to provide the opportunity for public comment on the additional information. DATES: To.... Comments regarding the SIR should be directed to the issues of air resources and climate change and are for... on including climate change in the environmental analyses for future planning decisions. In...

Effects of climate change on wildlife in the Northern Rockies [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Polly C. Buotte

2018-01-01

Few data exist on the direct effects of climatic variability and change on animal species. Therefore, projected climate change effects must be inferred from what is known about habitat characteristics and the autecology of each species. Habitat for mammals, including predators (Canada lynx, fisher, wolverine) and prey (snowshoe hare) that depend on high-elevation,...

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

2002-01-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth's biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios...

Climate Curriculum Modules on Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, and Nuclear Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2016-12-01

To support a climate dynamics multidisciplinary curriculum for graduate and senior university students, I will describe proposed on-line modules on volcanic eruptions and climate, geoengineering, and nuclear winter. Each of these topics involves aerosols in the stratosphere and the response of the climate system, but each is distinct, and each is evolving as more research becomes available. While nature can load the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols for several years from large volcanic eruptions, humans could also put sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere on purpose through geoengineering or soot as a result of the fires from a nuclear war. As reported for the first time in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, volcanic eruptions are a natural analog for the climate impacts of potential anthropogenic aerosol injections into the stratosphere, either sulfates from potential attempts to cool the climate to counteract global warming, or smoke that would be produced from fires in cities and industrial targets in a nuclear war. Stratospheric aerosols would change the temperature, precipitation, total insolation, and fraction of diffuse radiation due to their radiative impacts, and could produce more ultraviolet radiation by ozone destruction. Surface ozone concentration could also change by changed transport from the stratosphere as well as changed tropospheric chemistry. There would be two options: 1) Each module would stand alone and could be taught independently, or 2) The volcanic eruptions module would stand alone, and would also serve as a prerequisite for each of the other two modules, which could be taught independently of each other. Each module includes consideration of the physical climate system as well as impacts of the resulting climate change. Geoengineering includes both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide reduction. The geoengineering and nuclear winter modules also include consideration of policy and governance issues. Each module includes a slide set for use in lecturing, links to related resources, and student exercises. The modules will be regularly updated.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect human rights, promote social justice, and avoid creating new problems or exacerbating existing problems for vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

2016-08-01

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

2012-12-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

2012-01-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

PubMed Central

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-01-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. PMID:24934878

Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

2010-12-01

The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-01-01

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established. PMID:28758917

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-07-29

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established.

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

Teaching climate change: Pressures and practice in the middle school science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crayne, Jennifer A.

What are middle school science teachers teaching their students about climate change? And why? This qualitative study examined the experience of middle school science teachers from western Oregon, finding that while participating teachers accept the science of climate change and express concern about it, many teachers are reluctant to make the topic a priority in their classrooms. When they do include the subject, teachers frequently address "both sides." They also report that students have persistent doubts and misconceptions about climate change. What accounts for these trends? I argue that the way teachers address climate change is a result of complex interactions between structural pressures, emotional pressures, and cultural pressures. I conclude that, in order to promote the inclusion of sound climate science instruction in public schools, advocates of climate change education need to address challenges at all these levels: structural, emotional, and cultural.

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

PubMed

Wiens, John J

2016-12-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PubMed Central

Wiens, John J.

2016-01-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. PMID:27930674

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, J. W.

1995-01-01

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Climate change and the epidemiology of selected tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases: update from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force.

PubMed

Andersen, Louise K; Davis, Mark D P

2017-03-01

Climate change refers to variation in the climate of a specific region or globally over time. A change has been reported in the epidemiology of tick- and mosquito-borne diseases in recent decades. Investigators have postulated that this effect may be associated with climate change. We reviewed the English-language literature describing changes in the epidemiology of specific tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, including the tick-borne diseases of Lyme disease, tularemia, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Mediterranean spotted fever, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever and the mosquito-borne diseases of dengue, malaria, West Nile virus infection, Ross River virus disease, and Barmah Forest virus disease. We postulate that the changing epidemiology of tick- and mosquito-borne diseases is related to climate change. © 2016 The International Society of Dermatology.

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Atmospheric, climatic and environmental research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, Wallace S.; Gornitz, Vivien M.

1992-01-01

Work performed on the three tasks during the report period is summarized. The climate and atmospheric modeling studies included work on climate model development and applications, paleoclimate studies, climate change applications, and SAGE II. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations included studies on cloud climatology and planetary studies. Studies on the chemistry of the Earth and the environment are briefly described. Publications based on the above research are listed; two of these papers are included in the appendices.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E

2017-01-01

Abstract Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. PMID:29149298

Building a foundation for continued dialogue between climate science and water resource communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, J. A.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Hamman, J.; Nijssen, B.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Research into climate change has led to the development of many global climate models, downscaling techniques, and impacts models. This proliferation of information has resulted in insights into how climate change will impact hydrology that are more robust than any single approach, which is helpful for advancing the science. However, the variety of approaches makes navigating what information to use in water resource planning and management challenging. Each technique has strengths and weaknesses and associated uncertainties, and approaches are always being updated. Here we provide a user-focused, modularly framed guidance that is designed to be expandable and where updates can be targeted. This includes describing dos and don'ts for how to use climate change information in water resource planning and management that can be read at multiple levels. It can provide context for those seeking to understand the general need, opportunities, and challenges of including climate change information. It also provides details (frequently asked questions and examples) and direction to further guidance and resources for those engaged in the technical work. This guidance is intended to provide a foundation for continued dialogue within and between the climate science and application communities, to increase the utility and appropriate use of climate change information.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Suk, Jonathan E

2018-02-01

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. © FEMS 2017.

Enhancing the Communication of Climate Change Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.; Hassol, S. J.

2011-12-01

Climate scientists have an important role to play in the critical task of informing the public, media and policymakers. Scientists can help in publicizing and illuminating climate science. However, this task requires combining climate science expertise with advanced communication skills. For example, it is entirely possible to convey scientific information accurately without using jargon or technical concepts unfamiliar to non-scientists. However, making this translation into everyday language is a job that few scientists have been trained to do. In this talk, we give examples from our recent experience working with scientists to enhance their ability to communicate well. Our work includes providing training, technical assistance, and communications tools to climate scientists and universities, government agencies, and research centers. Our experience ranges from preparing Congressional testimony to writing major climate science reports to appearing on television. We have also aided journalists in gathering reliable scientific information and identifying trustworthy experts. Additionally, we are involved in developing resources freely available online at climatecommunication.org. These include a feature on the links between climate change and extreme weather, a climate science primer, and graphics and video explaining key developments in climate change science.

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis.

PubMed

Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

2017-04-01

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.

Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

PubMed

Dodo, Mahamat K

2014-01-01

Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.

The effects of climate-change-induced drought and freshwater wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; Kleinebecker, Till; Middleton, B.A.

2012-01-01

Drought cycles in wetlands may become more frequent and severe in the future, with consequences for wetland distribution and function. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, 2012. Online: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf, climate-change is likely to affect precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns so that the world’s wetlands may have more frequent episodes of extreme flooding and drought. This chapter contributes to a worldwide view of how wetland processes may be affected by these predicted changes in climate. Specifically, the occurrence of drought may increase, and that increase may affect the critical processes that sustain biodiversity in wetlands. We include specific examples that explore the effects of drought and other climate-change factors on wetland function in various parts of the world. In a concluding section we discuss management strategies for climate-change in wetlands. The synthesis of information in this chapter will contribute to a better understanding of how climate-change-induced drought may affect the function and distribution of wetlands in the future.

Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.

PubMed

Brondízio, Eduardo S; de Lima, Ana C B; Schramski, Sam; Adams, Cristina

2016-07-01

The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited. This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions. Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO. This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels. Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.

Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change. Proceedings of a Joint Symposium by the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Committee on Global Change, National Research Council (Washington, D.C., March 23, 1988).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC.

The motivation for the organization of this symposium was the accumulation of evidence from many sources, both short- and long-term, that the global climate is in a state of change. Data which defy integrated explanation including temperature, ozone, methane, precipitation and other climate-related trends have presented troubling problems for…

Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the Southwestern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In February 2014 the USDA established regional climate hubs across the United States to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The Southwest (SW) region encompasses six states which provide highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit ...

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

PubMed

Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

2007-07-01

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.

PubMed

McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B

2014-06-01

Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P < 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P < 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that arise are due to a lack of computer literacy amongst participants and we have found, through iterative improvements in the materials, that breaking assignments into discrete, well-supported tasks has been key to the success.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Study entitled The Effect of Climate Change on Indoor Air Quality and Public Health.

EPA Science Inventory

The Institute of Medicine of the NAS is conducting a study to evaluate the state of scientific understanding of the effects of climate change on indoor air quality and public health. General topics may include the likely impacts of climate change in the U.S. on the indoor environ...

Cascabel prescribed fire long-term watershed study: an opportunity to monitor climate change

Treesearch

Gerald Gottfried; Daniel Neary; Peter Ffolliott; Karen Koestner

2012-01-01

Experimental watershed studies can provide answers to new challenges facing land managers and society including the impacts of fires and climate change on upstream and regional hydrology. The Cascabel Watersheds long-term prescribed fire study provides a unique opportunity to monitor climate change because of its location in an oak savanna situated between deserts or...

Bird banding and climate change: can we make a difference?

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; Jared D. Wolfe

2014-01-01

So how does your banding effort fit into the new paradigm of climate science? A little background: many bird populations underwent mass declines during the 19th century from a variety of causes including hunting and habitat change. Current human-induced climate change represents a new and fast-acting pressure that is inherently more difficult to curtail and may drive...

Exploring the Role of Future Perspective in Predicting Turkish University Students' Beliefs about Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ates, Deniz; Teksöz, Gaye; Ertepinar, Hamide

2017-01-01

Recent studies indicate that limited understanding about causes and its potential impacts of climate change and fault beliefs by people across different countries of the world including Turkey is a real challenge. Acceptance of climate change as a real threat, believing its existence, and knowing causes and consequences are very significant for…

Responsibilities of the Occupational and Environmental Medicine Provider in the Treatment and Prevention of Climate Change-Related Health Problems.

PubMed

Perkison, William B; Kearney, Gregory D; Saberi, Pouné; Guidotti, Tee; McCarthy, Ronda; Cook-Shimanek, Margaret; Pensa, Mellisa A; Nabeel, Ismail

2018-02-01

: Workers are uniquely susceptible to the health hazards imposed by environmental changes. Occupational and environmental medicine (OEM) providers are at the forefront of emerging health issues pertaining to working populations including climate change, and must be prepared to recognize, respond to, and mitigate climate change-related health effects in workers. This guidance document from the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine focuses on North American workers health effects that may occur as a result of climate change and describes the responsibilities of the OEM provider in responding to these health challenges.

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

2015-11-01

Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.

2014-12-01

AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay.

Climate change and One Health.

PubMed

Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-06-01

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Climate change and One Health

PubMed Central

Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-01-01

Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability. PMID:26839967

Water access, water scarcity, and climate change.

PubMed

Mukheibir, Pierre

2010-05-01

This article investigates the approaches of the various discourses operating in the water sector and how they address the issues of scarcity and equitable access under projected climate change impacts. Little synergy exists between the different approaches dealing with these issues. Whilst being a sustainable development and water resources management issue, a holistic view of access, scarcity and the projected impacts of climate change is not prevalent in these discourses. The climate change discourse too does not adequately bridge the gap between these issues. The projected impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problems of scarcity and equitable access unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted and resilience is built. The successful delivery of accessible water services under projected climate change impacts therefore lies with an extension of the adaptive water management approach to include equitable access as a key driver.

Climate Change Now Apparent and Unequivocal, New Report Warns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-06-01

Climate change is happening now in the United States and globally, and its impacts are expected to become increasingly severe for more people and places unless the rate of emissions of heat-trapping gases is substantially reduced, according to a new report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” issued at a 16 June White House briefing. The 190-page report, a product of the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), states that “global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.” Among other key findings of the report—which drew on USGCRP results and other studies including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment—is that climate change will have numerous impacts on water resources, ecosystems, agriculture, coastal areas, human health, and other sectors.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

Development and nationwide scale-up of Climate Matters, a localized climate change education program delivered by TV weathercasters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.; Maibach, E.

2016-12-01

Most Americans view climate change as a threat that is distant in space (i.e., not here), time (i.e., not now), and species (i.e., not us). TV weathercasters are ideally positioned to educate Americans about the current and projected impacts of climate change in their community: they have tremendous reach, are trusted sources of climate information, and are highly skilled science communicators. In 2009, we learned that many weathercasters were potentially interested in reporting on climate change, but few actually were, citing significant barriers including a lack of time to prepare and air stories, and lack of access to high quality content. To test the premise that TV weathercasters can be effective climate educators - if supported with high quality localized climate communication content - in 2010 George Mason University, Climate Central and WLTX-TV (Columbia, SC) developed and pilot-tested Climate Matters, a series of short on-air (and online) segments about the local impacts of climate change, delivered by the station's chief meteorologist. During the first year, more than a dozen stories aired. To formally evaluate Climate Matters, we conducted pre- and post-test surveys of local TV news viewers in Columbia. After one year, WLTX viewers had developed a more science-based understanding of climate change than viewers of other local news stations, confirming our premise that when TV weathercasters report on the local implications of climate change, their viewers learn. Through a series of expansions, including the addition of important new partners - AMS, NASA, NOAA & Yale University - Climate Matters has become a comprehensive nationwide climate communication resource program for American TV weathercasters. As of March 2016, a network of 313 local weathercasters nationwide (at 202 stations in 111 media markets) are participating in the program, receiving new content on a weekly basis. This presentation will review the theoretical basis of the program, detail its development and national scale-up, and conclude with insights for how to develop climate communication initiatives for other professional communities of practice in the U.S. and other countries.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogel, J.; O'Grady, M.; Renfrow, S.

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities andmore » the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.« less

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

Climate Change and Collective Violence.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

2017-03-20

Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

PubMed Central

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

2016-01-01

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-14

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

2016-04-21

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780

A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

2007-01-01

This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G.; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Guerra Hernández, Juan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A.; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed Central

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures. PMID:28855959

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João Hn; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-16

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Adaptation Challenges in Complex River Basins: Lessons Learned and Unlearned for the Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2008-12-01

Climate variations affect the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices in support of efficiency and environmental needs. Selected basins around the world, including the Colorado, show agreements in model projections of increasing aridity. Adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanization and most importantly upstream-downstream winners and losers. Thus current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability. In many locations, water management does not even satisfactorily cope with current climate variability, so that large flood and drought-related environmental and economic damages occur on seasonal to decadal timescales. The recently released IPCC Technical Paper notes that adaptation procedures and risk management practices that incorporate projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties are being developed in some countries and regions.In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in drought and water resources management and optimization in the context of climate variability and projected change in the Western U.S., the European Union (including the Iberian Peninsula), the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere. Since the release of the IPCC report several of the authors (including the presenter) have held meetings on comparative assessments of adaptation and its challenges in interstate and international river basins. As a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management could assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts. Future adaptations include technical changes that improve water use efficiency, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. The co-evolution of climate history and adaptation did not start with the release of IPCC scenarios. The development of the Colorado River Basin was itself influenced by water resources planners from around the world (including the Middle East) in the late 1800s. As such lessons identified, but not always learned, abound. These hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. However, several paradoxes in water management and governance mitigate against the effectiveness of scientific information for meeting short term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities and for providing water to meet environmental needs. Consequently a complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of changes in water use efficiency and intentional transfers of the use of water from one sector to another.

Climate Change Education for General Education Faculty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Fuoco, M. J.; Phalen, L.; Harcourt, P.; Veron, D. E.; Rogers, M.; Merrill, J.

2016-12-01

As MADE-CLEAR scientists, our ultimate goal is to inform the public about climate change through education. Education will provide citizens with important tools for adapting and coping against climate change through the understanding of the cause and effects of climate change, and the role they play in counteracting these effects. MADE-CLEAR is connecting educators with resources such as lesson plans and hands-on activities so they can easily incorporate climate change into their curriculum. This past year Delaware State University held workshops for Chemistry and Math faculty to provide information and resources to help integrate climate change education into their classes. We presented them with information on climate change and demonstrated several laboratory activities that would be applicable to their classes. Such activities included a sea level rise graphing exercise, ocean acidification pH demonstration, ocean acidification's effect on organism's demonstration, carbon dioxide variability and heat trapping gas simulation. The goals of the workshops are to implement a multidisciplinary approach in climate change education. Workshops are prepared hands-on heavy followed by the lectures and video resources. Pre- and post-workshop assessment questions on the workshop contents are provided to monitor faculty understanding of the climate change content. In doing so, we aim to improve climate literacy in our higher education students.

Using Remote Sensing and Geospatial Technology for Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Helen; Kelly, Kimberle; Yetter, Laura

2014-01-01

This curriculum and instruction paper describes initial implementation and evaluation of remote-sensing exercises designed to promote post-secondary climate literacy in the geosciences. Tutorials developed by the first author engaged students in the analysis of climate change data obtained from NASA satellite missions, including the LANDSAT,…

Branching out: Agroforestry as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool for agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The United States and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Predictions of future climate conditions include longer gr...

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

Exploring the consequences of climate change for indoor air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazaroff, William W.

2013-03-01

Climate change will affect the concentrations of air pollutants in buildings. The resulting shifts in human exposure may influence public health. Changes can be anticipated because of altered outdoor pollution and also owing to changes in buildings effected in response to changing climate. Three classes of factors govern indoor pollutant levels in occupied spaces: (a) properties of pollutants; (b) building factors, such as the ventilation rate; and (c) occupant behavior. Diversity of indoor conditions influences the public health significance of climate change. Potentially vulnerable subpopulations include not only the young and the infirm but also those who lack resources to respond effectively to changing conditions. Indoor air pollutant levels reflect the sum of contributions from indoor sources and from outdoor pollutants that enter with ventilation air. Pollutant classes with important indoor sources include the byproducts of combustion, radon, and volatile and semivolatile organic compounds. Outdoor pollutants of special concern include particulate matter and ozone. To ensure good indoor air quality it is important first to avoid high indoor emission rates for all pollutants and second to ensure adequate ventilation. A third factor is the use of air filtration or air cleaning to achieve further improvements where warranted. Reprinted with permission from Climate Change, the Indoor Environment, and Health (2011) by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies Press, Washington, DC.

Adapting Buildings for Indoor Air Quality in a Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

PubMed

Pidgeon, Nick

2012-06-01

Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

PubMed

Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

2014-12-01

Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and extreme events can also alter the ecosystem succession process, even resulting in an alternative trajectory. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the provision of ecosystem functions and services and can also provide a basis for policy makers to apply adaptive measures to overcome the unfavorable influence of climate change.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

Plant health and global change--some implications for landscape management.

PubMed

Pautasso, Marco; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Salama, Nabeil; Jeger, Mike J; Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid

2010-11-01

Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Quantifying climate change impacts on runoff of zoonotic pathogens from land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterk, Ankie; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Stergiadi, Maria; de Nijs, Ton; Schijven, Jack

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown a correlation between rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks. One of the mechanisms whereby rainfall may cause outbreaks is through an increase in runoff of animal faeces from fields to surface waters. Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by water recreation or drinking-water consumption. Climate changes affect runoff because of increasing winter precipitation and more extreme precipitation events, as well as changes in evaporation. Furthermore, drier summers are leading to longer periods of high soil moisture deficits, increasing the hydrophobicity of soil and consequently changing infiltration capacities. A conceptual model is designed to describe the impacts of climate changes on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which are both directly and indirectly affecting pathogen loads in the environment and subsequent public health risks. One of the major outcomes was the lack of quantitative data and limited qualitative analyses of impacts of climate changes on pathogen runoff. Quantifying the processes by which micro-organisms are transported from fields to waters is important to be able to estimate such impacts to enable targeted implementation of effective intervention measures. A quantitative model using Mathematica software will be developed to estimate concentrations of pathogens originating from overland flow during runoff events. Different input sources will be included by applying different land-use scenarios, including point source faecal pollution from dairy cows and geese and diffuse source pollution by fertilization. Zoonotic pathogens, i.e. Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter, were selected based on transport properties, faecal loads and disease burden. Transport and survival rates of these pathogens are determined including effects of changes in precipitation but also temperature induced changes on die-off. Moreover, besides climate and surface variables, changes in soil or vegetation and adjustments in agricultural policy are considered. Output of this model can be used to assess how expected climate changes could affect pathogen concentrations in surface waters. The long term aim is to include this information in a larger framework, to quantify the impact of climate change on the infection and eventual disease risks due to exposure to water transmitted pathogens.

Reaching Regional and Local Learners via a Great Lakes MOOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2015-12-01

The Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) took a regional approach to climate change education in a 4-week MOOC (Massive Open On-line Course) on the Changing Weather and Climate in the Great Lakes Region launched in February 2015. Featuring a different season each week, this Great Lakes MOOC includes lectures about seasonal weather conditions, observed changes, and societal impacts of regional climate change, as well as actions with co-benefits to slow future climate change. To better connect with learners, CIMSS facilitated 21 discussion groups at public libraries around Wisconsin each week. Participants discussed climate change impacts in their communities as well as strategies to mitigate climate change. Not surprisingly, initial survey results show library participants were more committed, engaged, climate literate, and community minded. This session will share lessons learned and survey results from the Great Lakes MOOC which remains open and accessible on Coursera through February 2016 at https://www.coursera.org/course/greatlakesclimate.

Climate Change and Health: A Position Paper of the American College of Physicians.

PubMed

Crowley, Ryan A

2016-05-03

Climate change could have a devastating effect on human and environmental health. Potential effects of climate change on human health include higher rates of respiratory and heat-related illness, increased prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne diseases, food and water insecurity, and malnutrition. Persons who are elderly, sick, or poor are especially vulnerable to these potential consequences. Addressing climate change could have substantial benefits to human health. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians (ACP) recommends that physicians and the broader health care community throughout the world engage in environmentally sustainable practices that reduce carbon emissions; support efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change; and educate the public, their colleagues, their community, and lawmakers about the health risks posed by climate change. Tackling climate change is an opportunity to dramatically improve human health and avert dire environmental outcomes, and ACP believes that physicians can play a role in achieving this goal.

A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, Jalal

2016-07-01

Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-11-01

Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707-1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

A preliminary study of mechanistic approach in pavement design to accommodate climate change effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harnaeni, S. R.; Pramesti, F. P.; Budiarto, A.; Setyawan, A.

2018-03-01

Road damage is caused by some factors, including climate changes, overload, and inappropriate procedure for material and development process. Meanwhile, climate change is a phenomenon which cannot be avoided. The effects observed include air temperature rise, sea level rise, rainfall changes, and the intensity of extreme weather phenomena. Previous studies had shown the impacts of climate changes on road damage. Therefore, several measures to anticipate the damage should be considered during the planning and construction in order to reduce the cost of road maintenance. There are three approaches generally applied in the design of flexible pavement thickness, namely mechanistic approach, mechanistic-empirical (ME) approach and empirical approach. The advantages of applying mechanistic approach or mechanistic-empirical (ME) approaches are its efficiency and reliability in the design of flexible pavement thickness as well as its capacity to accommodate climate changes in compared to empirical approach. However, generally, the design of flexible pavement thickness in Indonesia still applies empirical approach. This preliminary study aimed to emphasize the importance of the shifting towards a mechanistic approach in the design of flexible pavement thickness.

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

U.S.-China Relations: Policy Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-12

China (PRC) include promoting U.S. trade and investment, protecting national security interests, addressing global environmental and climate change...influence and natural resources. Other U.S. concerns include the bilateral trade deficit with China and allegations of PRC unfair trade practices, PRC...with the PRC include promoting U.S. trade and investment, protecting national security interests, addressing global environmental and climate change

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jagge, Amy

2016-01-01

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed Central

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-01-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects. PMID:11359687

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-05-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.

PubMed

Elmhagen, Bodil; Kindberg, Jonas; Hellström, Peter; Angerbjörn, Anders

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Climate change in the Pacific - is it real or not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy

2013-04-01

In this presentation, novel approaches and new ideas for students and young researchers to appreciate the importance of climate science are discussed. These approaches have been applied through conducting a number of training workshops in the Pacific Island Countries and teaching a course on climate change international law and climate change science at the University of the South Pacific (USP) - the first course on this type in the Pacific. Particular focus of this presentation is on broadening students' experience with application of web-based information tools for analysis of climatic extremes and natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Over the past few years, significant efforts of Australian climate scientists have been dedicated to improving understanding of climate in the Pacific through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region). The first comprehensive scientific report about the Pacific climate has been published in 2011, as an outcome of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). A range of web-based information tools such as the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, the Pacific Climate Change Data Portal and the Pacific Seasonal Climate Prediction Portal has been also developed through the PCCSP and the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program. Currently, further advancement in seasonal climate prediction science and developing enhanced software tools for the Pacific is undertaken through the Theme 1 of the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. This new scientific knowledge needs to be transferred to students to provide them with true information about climate change and its impact on the Pacific Island Countries. Teachers and educators need their knowledge-base regularly updated and tools that will help their students critically evaluate information transmitted via the mass media. This is particularly important when educators present to students cutting edge science knowledge on climate change. Climate change skeptics through mass media attack climate scientists and dismiss their findings about magnitude of climate change. A novel approach implemented in our training workshops and teaching courses gives students practical hands on experience in examining climate data using the developed web-based information tools. Using the tools, students can examine climate of the Pacific Island Countries, derive trends in climate variables such as temperature and rainfall and make their own conclusions. An open forum "Is climate change real or not?" has also been included as an integral part of these workshops and teaching, giving an opportunity for students to present their findings. They have also been asked to provide examples of observed change in the environment in their countries which may be related to climate change. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive severe weather events in the Pacific which regularly affect countries in the region. Understanding importance of updating knowledge about cyclones, extensive training in using the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) has also been provided. Using this sophisticated web-based tool, students can learn about occurrences of cyclones in waters around their countries and over the whole Pacific. Positive feedback from university students and participants of training workshops has been obtained and this approach may be recommended for educators to include in their courses. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PASAP, PCCSP and PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

2015-12-01

Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to warming at northern latitudes.

Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

PubMed

Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

2016-01-01

Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat from climate change. As such, the health of the food production and processing environments in such systems merits immediate attention in research and practice.

Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes

PubMed Central

Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L.

2016-01-01

Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, “indigenous food systems.” Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat from climate change. As such, the health of the food production and processing environments in such systems merits immediate attention in research and practice. PMID:26973824

Who Is Learning About Climate Change in American Schools? An Analysis of Climate Change in Curriculum Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, B. W.; Francis, T. K.

2014-12-01

This work attempts to answer the question "how much, if any, climate change, exists in middle and high school curricula in the United States?" A necessary first step towards this answer involves an examination of Global Climate Change (GCC) coverage in the requisite standards documents. Until recently, each state had its own science framework, with four states (at the time of writing) having already adopted the new Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, Inc, 2013). This work reports on an analysis of the extent to which GCC exists within the content frameworks of each state, including the NGSS. The analysis began with a word search for such content as "climate change", "greenhouse effect", and "global warming". We then searched through the remainder of the documents in question to understand the nuance of each framework. Each framework was then scored on a scale form zero (no mention of climate change) to four (climate change is explicit, an anthropogenic potential cause is emphasized, and GCC appears within at least one standard of its own). Eighteen states scored a zero, while only five states scored a four. This is particularly troubling, in light of recent statements of scientific consensus (AAAS, 2006; 2009; AGU, 2013; IPCC, 2007). While the NGSS scored well, it is unclear what this means in terms of actual students encountering the subject of climate change in actual classroom. Attention is given to some still-problematic aspects of GCC content are addressed, including its focus largely within courses not required for graduation, as well as the murky details of the yet-to-be determined processes by which individual states will choose to test, or not to test, the subject matter. The authors conclude that as of 2013, there is little evidence that students in most states are required to take courses which include significant aspects of GCC in their curricula.

Climate Change Student Summits: A Model that Works (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.

2013-12-01

The C2S2: Climate Change Student Summit project has completed four years of activities plus a year-long longitudinal evaluation with demonstrated positive impacts beyond the life of the project on both students and teachers. This presentation will share the lessons learned about implementing this climate change science education program and suggest that it is a successful model that can be used to scale up from its Midwestern roots to achieve measurable national impact. A NOAA Environmental Literacy grant allowed ANDRILL (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) to grow a 2008 pilot program involving 2 Midwestern sites, to a program 4 years later involving 10 sites. The excellent geographical coverage included 9 of the U.S. National Climate Assessment regions defined by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Through the delivery of two professional development (PD) workshops, a unique opportunity was provided for both formal and informal educators to engage their classrooms/audiences in understanding the complexities of climate change. For maximum contact hours, the PD experience was extended throughout the school year through the use of an online grouphub. Student teams were involved in a creative investigative science research and presentation experience culminating in a Climate Change Student Summit, an on-site capstone event including a videoconference connecting all sites. The success of this program was based on combining multiple aspects, such as encouraging the active involvement of scientists and early career researchers both in the professional development workshops and in the Student Summit. Another key factor was the close working relationships between informal and formal science entities, including involvement of informal science learning facilities and informal science education leaders. The program also created cutting-edge curriculum materials titled the ELF, (Environmental Literacy Framework with a focus on climate change), providing an earth systems approach to climate change education which have been successfully integrated into existing curricula in grades 4-12, as well as at numerous science museums.

Climate change and special habitats in the Blue Mountains: Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Kathleen A. Dwire; Sabine Mellmann-Brown

2017-01-01

In the Blue Mountains, climate change is likely to have significant, long-term implications for freshwater resources, including riparian areas, wetlands (box 7.1), and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs, box 7.2). Climate change is expected to cause a transition from snow to rain, resulting in diminished snowpack and shifts in streamflow to earlier in the season (...

China’s Increasing Influence in Oceania: Implications for the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

China’s Vice Foreign Minister announced that China’s development assistance would be focusing on climate change initiatives, agricultural...such as climate change and women’s representation in society. 68 These policies and programs are also focused on some of 15 the key identified...development in the region. These commonalities include climate change , agricultural development, fisheries conservation and management, environmental

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

Review of Global Change Research Program plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-01-01

The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

Climate change and health in Earth's future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

2014-02-01

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

What Is Climate Change? (Environmental Health Student Portal)

MedlinePlus

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Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

Energy and Climate Change Report Provides Options for the White House

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-03-01

A newly approved energy and climate change report prepared by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) provides a menu of options for President Barack Obama to consider in dealing with climate change and includes components for a national climate preparedness strategy. The report was approved at a 15 March PCAST meeting in Washington, D. C., and is subject to final edits. It is the first report by the advisory council that focuses exclusively on climate, according to PCAST member Daniel Schrag, who provided a presentation about the document at the meeting.

Florida-focused climate change lesson demonstrations from the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.

2013-12-01

A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to evaluate retention of knowledge as well as clarification and reinforcement of topics. Another featured activity is 'Climate Change Scenario' in which teachers roll play as groups from various facets of local government, who decide how to deal with a given climate change scenario in the Miami-Dade county area. This activity demonstrates the complexities of negotiations that policy makers must make for the greater good of the local economy and ecology. Finally, we highlight activities that utilize online resources for both scientific information and pedagogical strategies for teaching climate change at the middle school level. Such resources include MYNASADATA, hurricane tracking websites, other scientist-vetted climate change lessons, and outreach events like NOAA's Adopt-a-drifter. These activities are highlighted for other scientists, educators, and professional development groups in the hopes that they will inspire further collaboration and further commitment to enhancing climate change education for our nation's youth.

Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada: energy, resource, and transportation sectors.

PubMed

Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Chouinard, Rebecca; Melling, Humfrey; Milburn, David; Smith, Sharon L

2009-07-01

Northern Canada is projected to experience major changes to its climate, which will have major implications for northern economic development. Some of these, such as mining and oil and gas development, have experienced rapid expansion in recent years and are likely to expand further, partly as the result of indirect effects of changing climate. This article reviews how a changing climate will affect several economic sectors including the hydroelectric, oil and gas, and mining industries as well as infrastructure and transportation, both marine and freshwater. Of particular importance to all sectors are projected changes in the cryosphere, which will create both problems and opportunities. Potential adaptation strategies that could be used to minimize the negative impacts created by a climate change are also reviewed.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

PubMed

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

2017-12-01

As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co-development of management options under these various scenarios have allowed for guidance about further research needed, observations needed to better monitor ecological conditions under climate changes, and adaptive management practices to increase resilience.

One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloch, Leonard Mark

This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.

Assessing climate change beliefs: Response effects of question wording and response alternatives.

PubMed

Greenhill, Murni; Leviston, Zoe; Leonard, Rosemary; Walker, Iain

2014-11-01

To date, there is no 'gold standard' on how to best measure public climate change beliefs. We report a study (N = 897) testing four measures of climate change causation beliefs, drawn from four sources: the CSIRO, Griffith University, the Gallup poll, and the Newspoll. We found that question wording influences the outcome of beliefs reported. Questions that did not allow respondents to choose the option of believing in an equal mix of natural and anthropogenic climate change obtained different results to those that included the option. Age and belief groups were found to be important predictors of how consistent people were in reporting their beliefs. Response consistency gave some support to past findings suggesting climate change beliefs reflect something deeper in the individual belief system. Each belief question was assessed against five criterion variables commonly used in climate change literature. Implications for future studies are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Anticipated water quality changes in response to climate change and potential consequences for inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Yushun; Todd, Andrew S.; Murphy, Margaret H.; Lomnicky, Gregg

2016-01-01

Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Changes anticipated with climate change in the future are likely to have a profound effect on inland aquatic ecosystems through diverse pathways, including changes in water quality. In this brief article, we present an initial discussion of several of the water quality responses that can be anticipated to occur within inland water bodies with climate change and how those changes are likely to impact fishes.

A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C. J.

2015-12-01

A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Museums & Mermaids: Bringing Climate Literacy to the Party

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tillinger, D.

2014-12-01

If science is for everyone, then it needs to be taught in environments that are welcoming to people who may not feel at home in a traditional classroom. A team of scientists and educators at the American Museum of Natural History have developed a new course, Our Earth's Future, which prepares participants to contribute intelligently and fluently to informal "cocktail party" conversations about climate and climate change. The course, taught after hours at the museum, culminates in an actual cocktail party in one of the museum's halls where participants can practice their skills. Participants' knowledge of climate change and attitudes towards climate change were quantitatively and qualitatively assessed before and after the two five-week course sessions.Climate literacy can also be included in existing events that are not obviously science-focused. Venues such as festivals, galleries, and underground art parties may be willing to broaden their definition of culture to include science - but only if they are asked. Given the increase in public discourse around the topic of climate change, there is an opportunity to reach people who wouldn't attend a formal science lecture, but might attend a film screening or a fundraiser that had some scientific content. Qualitative audience assessments done after the annual "Mermaid Lagoon," a fundraiser for ocean related causes that includes a scientific segment along with dance and theatrical performances, show increased enthusiasm and support for climate science when it is presented in a relevant, fun, and non-intimidating manner.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

2007-01-01

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahowald, N.M.; Muhs, D.R.; Levis, S.; Rasch, P.J.; Yoshioka, M.; Zender, C.S.; Luo, C.

2006-01-01

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kären C; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn E; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems. PMID:19536343

Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Climate Resilience Screening Index is being developed that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. The index will be applied at the first three scales and at selected communities. The index was developed in order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and societal aspects of climate resilience. In addition, the index uses indicators and metrics that assess ecosystem, economic, governance and social services at these scales. Finally, we are developing forecasting approaches that can relate intended changes in services and governance to likely levels of changes in the resiliency of communities to climate change impacts. The present challenge is the incorporation of the index, its relationships to governance and the developing forecasting tools into Federal decision-making across US government and into state/county/community decision-making across the US. Governmental acceptance of changes to policies often can be just as challenging as the initial technical acceptance of the index and its relation to climate change. Climate Resilience Index is a requested product by ORD AA and EPA Administrator through SHC Program. Index needed to assess states', counties', and communities' abilities of recovery from climate events. Audience: Internal EPA (Administrator, IO, OLEM, OW and OAR) and external (states, counties and communities). Product

Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

2013-09-01

Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Connecting Climate Science to Policy: from Global Food Production to the US Supreme Court

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.

2016-12-01

There are myriad ways climate science has been used to inform on global food security, and to affect law and policy. In this talk, I will summarize examples that include the application of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation science to improve food security in Indonesia and provide water forecasts for agriculture in northwest Mexico, as well as the application of climate change science to project changes in global grain production. In the latter case, reliable information on the impact of increasing greenhouse gases on growing season temperature is applied to assess the impact of climate change on average crop yields, on the volatility in crop yields, and on the loss of yield due to increasing pest pressure - all of which have acute implications for agricultural policy. In the US, climate change science was of paramount importance for the Supreme Court decision in the case "Massachusetts vs. EPA," which to this day greatly shapes US policy related to climate change - most notably in setting emission standards for vehicles. My colleagues and I have learned several lessons from our experiences in these applications of climate science that I will share, including some thoughts on the nature of interdisciplinary teams for producing reliable and effective products, and the on the professional pros and cons of pursuing applied work.

Empowering Pre-College Students To Engage In Climate Change Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haine, D. B.

2014-12-01

Developing and implementing solutions to environmental challenges, such as climate change, depend upon the cultivation of STEM knowledge and skills among today's youth. Furthermore, STEM instruction enhances learning by providing tools to investigate and analyze environmental issues, making the issue real and tangible to students. That said, educators engaged in the climate literacy movement are aware that possession of knowledge about Earth's climate and the causes and consequences of climate change is not sufficient to empower individuals to contribute to solutions that promote a sustainable future. By framing the issue of climate change in the context of energy, by utilizing STEM instructional strategies and by showcasing scientists and others working on solutions to address climate change, the Climate Leadership and Energy Awareness Program (Climate LEAP) at the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill is cultivating a network of youth who are not only informed about society's use of energy and the implication for Earth's climate but also empowered to be part of the solution as society shifts to a low carbon economy. During this year-long science enrichment program, 9th-12thgraders learn about our fossil fuel based economy, meet scientists who are working to expand the use of renewable energy sources, and develop communication and leadership skills. Experienced educators with UNC's Institute for the Environment, the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center and the Alliance for Climate Education partner with scientists to implement Climate LEAP. In addition to increasing knowledge of climate science and of the solutions proposed to address climate change, program participants are invited to engage members of their community through implementation of a solutions-oriented community outreach project. Now in its fifth year, 168 students have completed Climate LEAP, with approximately 2/3 completing at least one community outreach project. A survey of program alumni indicated that 90% of respondents were motivated by the program to make at least one behavior change to conserve energy in their daily life. This session will include a description of the program evaluation plan, which includes assessment of student learning..

Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

2009-01-01

Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

Global Climate Change Pathfinder: A Guide to Information Resources. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pintozzi, Chestalene; Jones, Douglas E.

This pathfinder is a guide to scientific and technical aspects of global climate change including meteorological and climatological aspects; biological, agricultural, and public policy implications; and the chemical processes involved. Sources are arranged by type of publication and include: (1) 10 reference sources; (2) 12 bibliographies; (3) 44…

Argonne OutLoud: "Climate Change: Fact, Fiction and What You Can Do"

ScienceCinema

Sisterson, Douglas

2018-06-07

Research meteorologist Doug Sisterson discusses climate change and the cutting-edge research taking place at Argonne as well as collaborative research with other institutions, including the University of Chicago.

VTrans climate change action plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

PubMed Central

Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. PMID:27646707

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul

2014-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-09-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollisterd; Anna Maria Fosaa; William A. Gould; Luise Hermanutz; Annika Hofgaard; Ingibjorg I. Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Esther Levesque; Borgbor Magnusson; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christian Rixen; Craig E. Tweedie; Marilyn Walkers

2015-01-01

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along...

Towards a predictive understanding of belowground process responses to climate change: have we moved any closer?

Treesearch

Elise Pendall; Lindsey Rustad; Josh Schimel

2008-01-01

Belowground processes, including root production and exudation, microbial activity and community dynamics, and biogeochemical cycling interact to help regulate climate change. Feedbacks associated with these processes, such as warming-enhanced decomposition rates, give rise to major uncertainties in predictions of future climate. Uncertainties associated with these...

Climate Change Science Teaching through Integration of Technology in Instruction and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriharan, S.; Ozbay, G.; Robinson, L.; Klimkowski, V.

2015-12-01

This presentation demonstrates the importance of collaborations between the institutions with common focus on offering the academic program on climate change science. Virginia State University (VSU) developed and established the course on climate change and adaptation, AGRI 350 for undergraduates, in cooperation with two HBCUs, Delaware State University (DSU) and Morgan State University (MSU). This program was developed to enhance the science curriculum with funding from the USDA NIFA. The hands-on research opportunities for students were supported by the NSF HBCU UP Supplement Grant at VSU. The technical guidance and lesson plans were available through the courtesy of the AMS and faculty/student team training at the NCAR. In the initial stages, the faculty members participated in faculty development workshops hosted by the AMS and NCAR. This contributed to trained faculty members developing the courses on Climate Change at VSU, DSU, and MSU. To create awareness of global climate change and exposure of students to international programs, seven students from VSU, MSU, and DSU participated in the Climate Change course (ENS 320) at the University of Sunshine Coast (USC), Australia. This international experience included faculty members in using SimCLIM for climate change data into decision-making with regard to potential changes to cropping systems and tree growth. The Climate Change program at VSU, DSU, and MSU is emerging into comprehensive academic program which includes use of case studies and exchange of students' reflections with their peers through discussion board and videoconferencing, hands-on research on water quality monitoring and mapping the study sites, and integration of geospatial technologies and i-Tree. In addition, the students' engagement in intensive research was conducted through hands-on experience with Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Marine Science Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo in summer 2015.

Quantifying uncertainty in climate change science through empirical information theory.

PubMed

Majda, Andrew J; Gershgorin, Boris

2010-08-24

Quantifying the uncertainty for the present climate and the predictions of climate change in the suite of imperfect Atmosphere Ocean Science (AOS) computer models is a central issue in climate change science. Here, a systematic approach to these issues with firm mathematical underpinning is developed through empirical information theory. An information metric to quantify AOS model errors in the climate is proposed here which incorporates both coarse-grained mean model errors as well as covariance ratios in a transformation invariant fashion. The subtle behavior of model errors with this information metric is quantified in an instructive statistically exactly solvable test model with direct relevance to climate change science including the prototype behavior of tracer gases such as CO(2). Formulas for identifying the most sensitive climate change directions using statistics of the present climate or an AOS model approximation are developed here; these formulas just involve finding the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of a quadratic form computed through suitable unperturbed climate statistics. These climate change concepts are illustrated on a statistically exactly solvable one-dimensional stochastic model with relevance for low frequency variability of the atmosphere. Viable algorithms for implementation of these concepts are discussed throughout the paper.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

Developing an In-depth Understanding of Elderly Adult's Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Rhoades, Jason L; Gruber, James S; Horton, Bill

2018-05-08

Recent reports highlight the vulnerability of elderly adults to climate change, yet limited research has focused on this topic. To address this, the purpose of this study was to develop an in-depth understanding of elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change within the context of a specific community. A case study methodology utilizing a community-based action research approach was employed to engage elderly participants living in Bridgeport, CT, in exploring their vulnerability to current and predicted climate stressors with a focus on extreme heat, flooding and storms, and air pollution. This research identifies personal characteristics that interact with contextual factors to influence elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change. Personal characteristics include health, economic, and social considerations. Contextual factors include the adequacy of emergency preparedness measures, transportation resources, and coping and recovery resources. As a result of the interplay of these characteristics and factors, predicted climate changes could have serious consequences for Bridgeport's elderly adults. This research provides a contextualized and detailed illustration of how climate change could overwhelm elderly adult's adaptive capacity and highlights the need for support services to provide safeguards. The issues and concerns raised may bear similarities to other locations, especially urban settings facing similar climate stressors with similar socioeconomic conditions. The findings suggest a need for further research to improve our understanding and serve as the basis for collaborative adaptation planning that engages elderly communities with local governments and a broad coalition of partners to keep elders safe.

Tracing the flow: Climate change actor-networks in Oklahoma secondary science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colston, Nicole Marie

This dissertation reports research about the translation of climate change in science education. Public controversies about climate change education raises questions about the lived experiences of teachers in Oklahoma and the role of science education in increasing public understanding. A mixed methods research design included rhetorical analysis of climate change denial media, key informant interviews with science education stakeholders, and a survey questionnaire of secondary science teachers. Final analysis was further informed by archival research and supplemented by participant observation in state-wide meetings and science teacher workshops. The results are organized into three distinct manuscripts intended for publication across the fields of communication, science education, and climate science. As a whole the dissertation answers the research question, how does manufactured scientific controversy about climate change present specific challenges and characterize negotiations in secondary science education in Oklahoma? Taken together, the findings suggest that manufactured controversy about climate change introduces a logic of non-problematicity, challenges science education policy making, and undermines scientific consensus about global warming.

Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

Downscaling U.S. public opinion about climate change and the 'Six Americas' to states, cities, and counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, J. R.; Howe, P. D.; Leiserowitz, A.

2013-12-01

For climate change communication to be most effective, messages should be targeted to the characteristics of local audiences. In the U.S., 'Six Americas' have been identified among the public based on their response to the climate change issue. The distribution of these different 'publics' varies between states and communities, yet data about public opinion at the sub-national scale remains scarce. In this presentation, we describe a methodology to statistically downscale results from national-level surveys about the Six Americas, climate literacy, and other aspects of public opinion to smaller areas, including states, metropolitan areas, and counties. The method utilizes multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to model public opinion at various scales using a large national-level survey dataset. We present state and county-level estimates of two key beliefs about climate change: belief that climate change is happening, and belief in the scientific consensus about climate change. We further present estimates of how the Six Americas vary across the U.S.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

The climate change convention and human health.

PubMed

Rowbotham, E J

1995-01-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at Rio in June 1992, is intended to minimize climate change and its impact. Much of its text is ambiguous and it is not specifically directed to health considerations. It is, however, recognized that adverse effects of climate change on health are a concern of humankind, and health is an integral part of the Convention. The Convention includes commitments by the developed countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to increase public awareness of these commitments. The significance of the Convention in these respects is discussed critically and future developments considered.

Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.

2013-12-01

Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.

Household perceptions of coastal hazards and climate change in the Central Philippines.

PubMed

Combest-Friedman, Chelsea; Christie, Patrick; Miles, Edward

2012-12-15

As a tropical archipelagic nation, the Philippines is particularly susceptible to coastal hazards, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. To improve coastal hazard management and adaptation planning, it is imperative that climate information be provided at relevant scales and that decision-makers understand the causes and nature of risk in their constituencies. Focusing on a municipality in the Central Philippines, this study examines local meteorological information and explores household perceptions of climate change and coastal hazard risk. First, meteorological data and local perceptions of changing climate conditions are assessed. Perceived changes in climate include an increase in rainfall and rainfall variability, an increase in intensity and frequency of storm events and sea level rise. Second, factors affecting climate change perceptions and perceived risk from coastal hazards are determined through statistical analysis. Factors tested include social status, economic standing, resource dependency and spatial location. Results indicate that perceived risk to coastal hazards is most affected by households' spatial location and resource dependency, rather than socio-economic conditions. However, important differences exist based on the type of hazard and nature of risk being measured. Resource dependency variables are more significant in determining perceived risk from coastal erosion and sea level rise than flood events. Spatial location is most significant in determining households' perceived risk to their household assets, but not perceived risk to their livelihood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning

PubMed Central

Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

Populations of concern: Chapter 9

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, Janet; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, K.; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, C.; Hallisey, E.; Hutchins, S.; Jantarasami, L.; Khoury, S.; Kiefer, M.; Kolling, J.; Lynn, K.; Manangan, A.; McDonald, M.; Morello-Frosch, R.; Hiza, Margaret; Sheffield, P.; Thigpen Tart, K.; Watson, J.; Whyte, K.P.; Wolkin, A.F.

2016-01-01

Climate change is already causing, and is expected to continue to cause, a range of health impacts that vary across different population groups in the United States. The vulnerability of any given group is a function of its sensitivity to climate change related health risks, its exposure to those risks, and its capacity for responding to or coping with climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups of people, described here as populations of concern, include those with low income, some communities of color, immigrant groups (including those with limited English proficiency), Indigenous peoples, children and pregnant women, older adults, vulnerable occupational groups, persons with disabilities, and persons with preexisting or chronic medical conditions. Planners and public health officials, politicians and physicians, scientists and social service providers are tasked with understanding and responding to the health impacts of climate change. Collectively, their characterization of vulnerability should consider how populations of concern experience disproportionate, multiple, and complex risks to their health and well-being in response to climate change. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both climate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, coastlines, and other at-risk locations are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. Over time, this “accumulation” of multiple, complex stressors is expected to become more evident1 as climate impacts interact with stressors associated with existing mental and physical health conditions and with other socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Assessing Climate Misconceptions of Middle School Learners and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A.; Cirucci, L.; Bressler, D.; Dempsey, C.; Peffer, T.

2012-12-01

Middle School students and their teachers are among the many populations in the U.S. with misconceptions regarding the science or even reality of climate change. Teaching climate change science in schools is of paramount importance since all school-age children will eventually assume responsibility for the management and policy-making decisions of our planet. The recently published Framework for K-12 Science Education (National Research Council, 2012) emphasizes the importance of students understanding global climate change and its impacts on society. A preliminary assessment of over a thousand urban middles school students found the following from pretests prior to a climate literacy curriculum: - Do not understand that climate occurs on a time scale of decades (most think it is weeks or months) -Do not know the main atmospheric contributors to global warming -Do not understand the role of greenhouse gases as major contributors to increasing Earth's surface temperature -Do not understand the role of water vapor to trap heat and add to the greenhouse effect -Cannot identify some of the human activities that increase the amount of CO2 -Cannot identify sources of carbon emissions produced by US citizens -Cannot describe human activities that are causing the long-term increase of carbon -dioxide levels over the last 100 years -Cannot describe carbon reduction strategies that are feasible for lowering the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere To address the lack of a well-designed middle school science climate change curriculum that can be used to help teachers promote the teaching and learning of important climate change concepts, we developed a 20-day Environmental Literacy and Inquiry (ELI): Climate Change curriculum in partnership with a local school district. Comprehension increased significantly from pre- to post-test after enactment of the ELI curriculum in the classrooms. This work is part of an ongoing systemic curriculum reform initiative to promote (1) environmental literacy and inquiry and (2) foster the development of geospatial thinking and reasoning using geospatial technologies as an essential component of the middle school science curriculum. The curriculum is designed to align instructional materials and assessments with learning goals. The following frameworks were used to provide guidelines for the climate change science content in addition to the science inquiry upon which schools must focus: Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009) and the AAAS Project 2061 Communicating and Learning About Global Climate Change (AAAS, 2007). The curriculum is a coherent sequence of learning activities that include climate change investigations with Google Earth, Web-based interactivities that include an online carbon emissions calculator and a Web-based geologic time-line, and inquiry-based ("hands-on") laboratories. The climate change science topics include the atmosphere, Earth system energy balance, weather, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and "humans and climate". It is hoped that with a solid foundation of climate science in the classroom, middle school learners will be in a position to evaluate new scientific discoveries, emerging data sets, and reasonably assess information and misinformation by which they are surrounded on a daily basis.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

A climate-compatible approach to development practice by international humanitarian NGOs.

PubMed

Clarke, Matthew; de Cruz, Ian

2015-01-01

If current climate-change predictions prove accurate, non-linear change, including potentially catastrophic change, is possible and the environments in which international humanitarian NGOs operate will change figuratively and literally. This paper proposes that a new approach to development is required that takes changing climate into account. This 'climate-compatible approach' to development is a bleak shift from some of the current orthodox positions and will be a major challenge to international humanitarian NGOs working with the most vulnerable. However, it is necessary to address the challenges and context such NGOs face, and the need to be resilient and adaptive to these changes. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szwed, Małgorzata

2018-02-01

The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June-August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

PubMed

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

2015-04-14

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

PubMed Central

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

2015-01-01

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

2015-12-01

Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime response to climate forcing across multiple ecoregions helps reveal the mechanisms that connect fire and climate in Alaskan ecosystems.

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vammen Larsen, Sanne, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk; Kornov, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk; Wejs, Anja, E-mail: wejs@plan.aau.dk

2012-02-15

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations asmore » to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Synergies between climate change mitigation, adaptation and other environmental concerns are not addressed in Danish SEA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Institutional explanations relate to organisational set-ups and understandings of climate change as a new planning issue. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper points to a need for developing SEA to include climate change in a more systematic and integrated manner.« less

Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants.

PubMed

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-07-21

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

2010-07-28

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

PubMed

Swaminathan, Ashwin; Lucas, Robyn M; Harley, David; McMichael, Anthony J

2014-11-11

The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations-particularly for children-to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

PubMed Central

Sheffield, Perry E.; Knowlton, Kim; Carr, Jessie L.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2011-01-01

Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. PMID:21855738

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

2010-09-01

Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: Landscape change versus climate drivers.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Cuervo-Robayo, Angela P; Berlanga, Humberto; Soberón, Jorge

2015-05-01

Numerous climate change effects on biodiversity have been anticipated and documented, including extinctions, range shifts, phenological shifts, and breakdown of interactions in ecological communities, yet the relative balance of different climate drivers and their relationships to other agents of global change (for example, land use and land-use change) remains relatively poorly understood. This study integrated historical and current biodiversity data on distributions of 115 Mexican endemic bird species to document areas of concentrated gains and losses of species in local communities, and then related those changes to climate and land-use drivers. Of all drivers examined, at this relatively coarse spatial resolution, only temperature change had significant impacts on avifaunal turnover; neither precipitation change nor human impact on landscapes had detectable effects. This study, conducted across species' geographic distributions, and covering all of Mexico, thanks to two large-scale biodiversity data sets, could discern relative importance of specific climatic drivers of biodiversity change.

Experience real-time climate change: Environmental education at Jamtal glacier.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andrea; Seiser, Bernd; Hartl, Lea; Bendler, Gebhard

2016-04-01

Kids hear about climate change in everyday news, but, unlike grown-ups, they find it much harder to imagine changes over decades, i.e. much longer than their own life span. So how to teach them the issues of climate change? Jamtalferner is an Alpine glacier with an ongoing mass balance monitoring programme started in 1988/89. Surveys of glacier length changes by the Austrian Alpine Club date back even longer, so that the glacier retreat after the Little Ice Age is well documented. As the glacier is easy to access, at just one hour's easy walk from the mountain hut, Jamtalferner was selected to compile materials on climate change for the use in schools and for preparing excursions for a hands-on confrontation with climate change and to give an impression of decadal changes. The materials will be available at www.umweltbildung-jamtal.info and include time series of photographs, maps, tables, background information and exercises.

High Resolution Climate Modeling of the Water Cycle over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Gochis, D.; Chen, F.; Barlage, M. J.; Dai, A.; Dudhia, J.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2015-12-01

The NCAR Water System program strives to improve the full representation of the water cycle in both regional and global models. Our previous high-resolution simulations using the WRF model over the Rocky Mountains revealed that proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing (< 6 km horizontal) and parameterizations. The climate sensitivity experiment consistent with expected climate change showed an altered hydrological cycle with increased fraction of rain versus snow, increased snowfall at high altitudes, earlier melting of snowpack, and decreased total runoff. In order to investigate regional differences between the Rockies and other major mountain barriers and to study climate change impacts over other regions of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), we have expanded our prior CO Headwaters modeling study to encompass most of North America at a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km. A domain expansion provides the opportunity to assess changes in orographic precipitation across different mountain ranges in the western USA, as well as the very dominant role of convection in the eastern half of the USA. The high resolution WRF-downscaled climate change data will also become a valuable community resource for many university groups who are interested in studying regional climate changes and impacts but unable to perform such long-duration and high-resolution WRF-based downscaling simulations of their own. The scientific goals and details of the model dataset will be presented including some preliminary results.

Supporting Climate Literacy in the K12 Classroom by Identifying Educators' Perceived Barriers to and Gaps in Resources for Teaching Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tayne, K.

2015-12-01

As K12 teachers seek ways to provide meaningful learning opportunities for students to understand climate change, they often face barriers to teaching about climate and/or lack relevant resources on the topic. In an effort to better understand how to support K12 teachers in this role, a survey about "teaching climate change" was created and distributed. The results of the 2015 survey are presented, based on more than 200 teacher responses. Respondents included National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) members, 2015 STEM Teacher and Researcher (STAR) Fellows and science teachers from several U.S. school districts. The survey identifies teachers' perceived barriers to teaching climate change, for example difficulty integrating climate change concepts into specific core courses (i.e., biology), as well as desired classroom resources, such as climate change project-based learning (PBL) units that connect to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Survey results also indicate possible pathways for federal agencies, non-profits, universities and other organizations to have a more significant impact on climate literacy in the classroom. In response to the survey results, a comprehensive guide is being created to teach climate change in K12 classrooms, addressing barriers and providing resources for teachers. For example, in the survey, some teachers indicated that they lacked confidence in their content knowledge and understanding of climate change, so this guide provides web-based resources to help further an educator's understanding of climate change, as well as opportunities for relevant online and in-person professional development. In this quest for desired resources to teach climate change, gaps in accessible and available online resources are being identified. Information about these "gaps" may help organizations that strive to support climate literacy in the classroom better serve teachers.

Grasstops and Grassroots Approaches to Building Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBeau, A.; Bader, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change and extreme weather events pose complex risks to cities all over the world, impacting not only the built environment, but also social infrastructure. Because urban communities are culturally and socioeconomically diverse, as well as systemically complicated, climate change and extreme weather events will impact people differently even within a single city—not only because of where they live, but also because of who they are. The City of Long Beach, California, is in its very early stages of understanding its vulnerabilities. However, city leaders and community partners including the Aquarium of the Pacific are committed to creating a model climate resilient city. Climate change risks most relevant to Long Beach include drought (and freshwater shortages), extreme heat, sea level rise, and poor air quality. Over the past 18 months, the Aquarium of the Pacific has been testing elements of a broad-reaching education strategy to reach community stakeholders. Two multi-level approaches are designed to build awareness and momentum for climate resilience. A grassroots approach, called RESILIENT LB, focuses on an interactive outreach booth that travels to community events. The booth is staffed by educators with specific training on climate communication. Facilitated conversations help people identify what they love about Long Beach and immediate impacts that climate change will have on the things they value. A second, complimentary approach involves long-term community engagement through a grasstops-to-grassroots approach. Aquarium educators have been facilitating different climate resilience workshops for leaders from a variety of groups across Long Beach. These workshops give leaders the chance to reflect on how their communities may be impacted by climate change, and highlight adaptation (rather than mitigation) to climate change. In this session, we will share how these programs have evolved, lessons learned, and areas of growth.

Mid-21st- century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Rachel A. Loehman

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st- century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains....

Climate change and forest trees in the Pacific Northwest: a vulnerability assessment and recommended actions for national forests

Treesearch

A. Bower; W. Devine; C. Aubry

2017-01-01

Climate change presents new challenges to land managers. At stake is our ability to make thoughtful, science-based decisions and to add climate change considerations to our project and management plans. We also must prioritize among the opportunities that can be included in adaptation strategies because funding and time are limited, now more than ever. In 2012, we...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

High Resolution Climate Modeling of the Water Cycle over the Western United States Including Potential Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.

2016-12-01

The NCAR Water System program strives to improve the full representation of the water cycle in both regional and global models. Our previous high-resolution simulations using the WRF model over the Rocky Mountains revealed that proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing (< 6 km horizontal) and parameterizations. The climate sensitivity experiment consistent with expected climate change showed an altered hydrological cycle with increased fraction of rain versus snow, increased snowfall at high altitudes, earlier melting of snowpack, and decreased total runoff. In order to investigate regional differences between the Rockies and other major mountain barriers and to study climate change impacts over other regions of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), we have expanded our prior CO Headwaters modeling study to encompass most of North America at a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km (see figure below). A domain expansion provides the opportunity to assess changes in orographic precipitation across different mountain ranges in the western USA. This study will examine the water cycle over Western U.S. seven U.S. mountain ranges, including likely changes to amount of snowpack and spring melt-off, critical to agriculture in the western U.S.

Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

Climate and the collapse of civilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abate, T.

1994-09-01

This article looks at the archaeological debate over two important questions: whether abrupt climate changes caused or contributed to the collapse of ancient civilizations and, if the archaeological and paleoclimatological record yields evidence to that effect, what would it mean in a world that today debates whether industrial civilization is altering Earth's climate with uncertain consequences. Areas discussed include the following: climate hints from archaeological sites; hesitations about whether climate change caused civilizations to collapse; and the interdisciplinary checks on each side.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Josh J.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.

2012-01-01

Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences. PMID:22217718

Multiscale Assessment of Listed and At-Risk Species’ Climate Change Vulnerabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-15

Anthropogenically altered landscapes (e.g., urban or agricultural areas) that may hinder the dispersal of a species. B3. Land Use Changes from Climate Change...vulnerable (HV) and ex- tremely vulnerable (EV). Federal land management agencies include: Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Bu- reau of Land...agencies include: Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Bu- reau of Land Management (BLM), Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), Department of Defense (DoD

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; McGregor, Glenn

2008-11-01

Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Ensembles-based predictions of climate change impacts on bioclimatic zones in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Lim, C. H.; Ryu, J.

2017-12-01

Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and efforts are needed to mitigate this continually increasing loss of species. Clustering of areas with similar habitats can be used to prioritize protected areas and distribute resources for the conservation of species, selection of representative sample areas for research, and evaluation of impacts due to environmental changes. In this study, Northeast Asia (NEA) was classified into 14 bioclimatic zones using statistical techniques, which are correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), and the iterative self-organizing data analysis technique algorithm (ISODATA). Based on these bioclimatic classification, we predicted shift of bioclimatic zones due to climate change. The input variables include the current climatic data (1960-1990) and the future climatic data of the HadGEM2-AO model (RCP 4.5(2050, 2070) and 8.5(2050, 2070)) provided by WorldClim. Using these data, multi-modeling methods including maximum likelihood classification, random forest, and species distribution modelling have been used to project the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones within NEA. The results of various models were compared and analyzed by overlapping each result. As the result, significant changes in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the NEA by 2050s and 2070s. The overall zones moved upward and some zones were predicted to disappear. This analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem. Also, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change adaptation.

The Climate Science Special Report: Summary of Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

As a prelude to the 4th National Climate Assessment, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is being developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. To summarize some of the findings, the science is clear—the climate on our planet, including the United States, is changing, changing much more rapidly than occurs naturally, and it is happening primarily because of human activities, especially from our use of fossil fuels but also from land use change. Observational evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Documented changes include surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; and rising sea level. Severe weather is becoming more intense. Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally. All of these trends are expected to continue. The Earth's climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely (95% or greater likelihood) that human activities have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. This presentation summarizes key findings from the CSSR.

Health, climate change and energy vulnerability: a retrospective assessment of strategic health authority policy and practice in England.

PubMed

Richardson, J; Kagawa, F; Nichols, A

2008-11-17

A number of policy documents suggest that health services should be taking climate change and sustainability seriously and recommendations have been made to mitigate and adapt to the challenges health care providers will face. Actions include, for example, moving towards locally sourced food supplies, reducing waste, energy consumption and travel, and including sustainability in policies and strategies. A Strategic Health Authority (SHA) is part of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. They are responsible for developing strategies for the local health services and ensuring high-quality performance. They manage the NHS locally and are a key link between the U.K. Department of Health and the NHS. They also ensure that national priorities are integrated into local plans. Thus they are in a key position to influence policies and practices to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climate change and promote sustainability. The aim of this study was to review publicly available documents produced by Strategic Health Authorities (SHA) to assess the extent to which current activity and planning locally takes into consideration climate change and energy vulnerability. A retrospective thematic content analysis of publicly available materials was undertaken by two researchers over a six month period in 2008. These materials were obtained from the websites of the 10 SHAs in England. Materials included annual reports, plans, policies and strategy documents. Of the 10 SHAs searched, 4 were found to have an absence of content related to climate change and sustainability. Of the remaining 6 SHAs that did include content related to climate change and energy vulnerability on their websites consistent themes were seen to emerge. These included commitment to a regional sustainability framework in collaboration with other agencies in the pursuit and promotion of sustainable development. Results indicate that many SHAs in England have yet to embrace sustainability, or to integrate preparations for climate change and energy vulnerability within their organisational strategies. Evidence also suggests that SHAs that have recognised the importance of sustainability within their documentation and policies have yet to fully demonstrate this in practice through the implementation of these policies. Further research is required to investigate means by which SHAs (U.K.) and agencies responsible for health service policy in other countries may be enabled to include a greater consideration of sustainability and climate change within their policies, and to find effective ways of implementing these policies within daily working practice.

Climate change and our environment: the effect on respiratory and allergic disease.

PubMed

Barne, Charles; Alexis, Neil E; Bernstein, Jonathan A; Cohn, John R; Demain, Jeffrey G; Horner, Elliot; Levetin, Estelle; Nei, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2013-03-01

Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. It provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth's environment into his or her patient's treatment plan. It incorporates references retrieved from Pub Med searches for topics, including:climate change, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gasses, air pollution, particulates, black carbon, soot and sea level, as well as references contributed by the individual authors. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated.Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments.Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas.Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens,whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may resultin urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions.

Concept Mapping to Assess Learning and Understanding of Complexity in Courses on Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebich-Hespanha, S.; Gautier, C.

2010-12-01

The complex nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators wishing to broaden and deepen student understanding of the climate system and its sensitivity to and impacts upon human activity. Learners have prior knowledge that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedbacks) that arise in global change science, and these existing mental models serve as the scaffold for all future learning. Because adoption of complex scientific concepts is not likely if instruction includes presentation of information or concepts that are not compatible with the learners’ prior knowledge, providing effective instruction on this complex topic requires learning opportunities that are anchored upon an evaluation of the limitations and inaccuracies of the learners’ existing understandings of the climate system. The formative evaluation that serves as the basis for planning such instruction can also be useful as a baseline against which to evaluate subsequent learning. We will present concept-mapping activities that we have used to assess students’ knowledge and understanding about global climate change in courses that utilized multiple assessment methods including presentations, writings, discussions, and concept maps. The courses in which these activities were completed use a variety of instructional approaches (including standard lectures and lab assignments and a mock summit) to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. Two instances of concept map assessment will be presented: one focused on evaluating student understanding of the major components of the climate system and their interconnections, and the other focused on student understanding of the connections between climate change and the global food system. We will discuss how concept mapping can be used to demonstrate evidence of learning and conceptual change, and also how it can be used to provide information about gaps in knowledge and misconceptions students have about the topic.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-01-01

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

1999-01-01

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Perceptions and Misconceptions Regarding Climate Change: Politics versus Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, Elia O.

Climate change has been increasingly becoming a commonly debated topic among the public (Lambert & Bleicher, 2013). This is especially true with scientists and educators (Cooney, 2010). Terminology, politics, and misconceptions can bias perceptions. Scientists also tend to disagree over the cause of climate change and the data resulting from different studies (Idso, Carter, & Singer, 2016). The pilot study was conducted to examine perceptions of preservice teachers regarding climate change. There were forty participants, comprised of twenty Hispanic, nineteen Anglo American, and one African American, enrolled in a required course for future science educators in a medium-sized south Texas university. The pilot study included pre- and post-tests distributed to all of the participants and one on one interviews with three randomly selected pre-service teachers. The post-test results showed a significant difference in statements about the belief that climate change is real, about there being enough scientific evidence to prove the climate is changing, and the belief we are experiencing an extinction event due to climate change. While one lesson on climate change may not prove to be enough to change all of the participants' perceptions, there were some pre-service teachers who did begin to think differently about the impact of human activities and became more aware of climate change issues. The findings from this research show how beneficial a lesson on climate change can be to the future careers of science educators and in turn contribute considerably to the education of future students.

Climate Curriculum Modules on Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, and Nuclear Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2014-12-01

To support a climate dynamics multidisciplinary curriculum for graduate and senior university students, I will describe on-line modules on volcanic eruptions and climate, geoengineering, and nuclear winter. Each of these topics involves aerosols in the stratosphere and the response of the climate system, but each is distinct, and each is evolving as more research becomes available. As reported for the first time in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, volcanic eruptions are a natural analog for the climate impacts of potential anthropogenic aerosol injections into the stratosphere, either sulfates from potential attempts to cool the climate to counteract global warming, or smoke that would be produced from fires in cities and industrial targets in a nuclear war. The volcanic eruptions module would stand alone, and would also serve as a prerequisite for each of the other two modules, which could be taught independently of each other. Each module includes consideration of the physical climate system as well as impacts of the resulting climate change. Geoengineering includes both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide reduction. The geoengineering and nuclear winter modules also include consideration of policy and governance issues. Each module includes a slide set for use in lecturing, links to related resources, and student exercises. The modules will be regularly updated.

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

2005-07-01

This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and considerationmore » of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.« less

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

Novel Tools for Climate Change Learning and Responding in Earth Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Elena; Brunacini, Jessica; Pfirman, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Several innovative, polar focused activities and tools including a polar hub website (http://thepolarhub.org) have been developed for use in formal and informal earth science or STEM education by the Polar Learning and Responding (PoLAR) Climate Change Education Partnership (consisting of climate scientists, experts in the learning sciences and education practitioners). In seeking to inform understanding of and response to climate change, these tools and activities range from increasing awareness to informing decisions about climate change, from being used in classrooms (by undergraduate students as well as by pre-college students or by teachers taking online climate graduate courses) to being used in the public arena (by stakeholders, community members and the general public), and from using low technology (card games such as EcoChains- Arctic Crisis, a food web game or SMARTIC - Strategic Management of Resources in Times of Change, an Arctic marine spatial planning game) to high technology (Greenify Network - a mobile real world action game that fosters sustainability and allows players to meaningfully address climate change in their daily lives, or the Polar Explorer Data Visualization Tablet App that allows individuals to explore data collected by scientists and presented for the everyday user through interactive maps and visualizations, to ask questions and go on an individualized tour of polar regions and their connections to the rest of the world). Games are useful tools in integrative and applied learning, in gaining practical and intellectual skills, and in systems thinking. Also, as part of the PoLAR Partnership, a Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was collaboratively developed and conducted, that can be used as a model for engaging and representing indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools and solutions building. Future camps are planned with Alaska Native Elders, educators including classroom teachers, natural resource managers, community members, leaders, and climate scientists as participants.

Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

2012-01-01

The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Douglas J. Shinneman

2015-01-01

Global changes, including climate change, are rapidly creating new environmental conditions and stressors for forests around the world. Climate change may have modest direct effects, at least initially, but indirect effects and interactions with disturbances can produce important changes in forest composition and landscape pattern (Dale et al. 2001; Gustafson et al....

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Producing Scientific and Strategic Guidance for California's Department of Water Resources: The Climate Change Technical Advisory Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Austin, B. N.; Curtis, D. C.; Anderson, M.; Alpert, H.; Young, S.; Herson, A.; Schwarz, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Langridge, R.; Lynn, E.; Anderson, J.; Redmond, K. T.; Dettinger, M. D.; Correa, M.; Franco, G.; Cayan, D.; Georgakakos, K.

2015-12-01

Diverse areas of expertise are needed to describe and assess a changing climate and provide guidance for the agency that runs the largest state-built, multi-purpose water project in the U.S. California's State Water Project provides: drinking water for more than 25 million people, flood control, power generation, recreation, fish and wildlife protection, and water quality improvements. Hydrologic impacts under a changing climate include rising seas, reduced ratio of snow to rain, earlier snowmelt and higher temperatures; all of which are being detected. To improve the scientific basis for decisions and enhance the consistency of climate change approaches, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) empaneled a Climate Change Technical Advisory Group (CCTAG) for guidance on the scientific aspects of climate change, its impacts on water resources, the use and creation of planning approaches and analytical tools, and the development of adaptation responses. To carry out DWR's mission, incorporation of climate change into DWR's planning, projects, and other activities must be consistent, science-based, and continually improved through an iterative process. Hydrologists, academicians, modelers, planners, lawyers and practitioners convened regularly to tackle these complicated issues in water management policy, including climate change impacts on extreme events. Actions taken in response to the CCTAG recommendations will move California toward more sustainable management of water and related resources. DWR will release a technical report of CCTAG guidance and perspectives in 2015. The process to convene, collaborate and distribute the findings of this CCTAG will be the focus of this presentation. An academician and water resources practitioner will share their perspectives on the processes driving CCTAG's work.

Climate Change and Arctic Issues in the Marine and Environmental Science Curriculum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlietstra, L.; McConnell, M. C.; Bergondo, D. L.; Mrakovcich, K. L.; Futch, V.; Stutzman, B. S.; Fleischmann, C. M.

2016-02-01

As global climate change becomes more evident, demand will likely increase for experts with a detailed understanding of the scientific basis of climate change, the ocean's role in the earth-atmosphere system, and forecasted impacts, especially in Arctic regions where effects may be most pronounced. As a result, programs in marine and environmental sciences are uniquely poised to prepare graduates for the formidable challenges posed by changing climates. Here we present research evaluating the prevalence and themes of courses focusing on anthropogenic climate change in 125 Marine Science and Environmental Science undergraduate programs at 86 institutions in the United States. These results, in addition to the increasing role of the Coast Guard in the Arctic, led to the development of two new courses in the curriculum. Climate Change Science, a one-credit seminar, includes several student-centered activities supporting key learning objectives. Polar Oceanography, a three-credit course, incorporates a major outreach component to Coast Guard units and members of the scientific community. Given the importance of climate change in Arctic regions in particular, we also propose six essential "Arctic Literacy Principles" around which courses or individual lesson plans may be organized. We show how these principles are incorporated into an additional new three-credit course, Model Arctic Council, which prepares students to participate in a week-long simulation exercise of Arctic Council meetings, held in Fairbanks, Alaska. Students examine the history and mission of the Arctic Council and explore some of the issues on which the council has deliberated. Special attention is paid to priorities of the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council which include climate change impacts on, and stewardship of, the Arctic Ocean.

Where the Rubber Hits the Road: The Politics and Science of Climate Change in Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.

2004-12-01

Scientific understanding of the magnitude and rate of global and regional climate change is being actively communicated to Capitol Hill, however this information is being framed within the political debate that has brought climate change policy in the U.S. to a practical standstill. Efforts by scientists to communicate to Congress advances in the understanding of climate change have been obscured by policy-makers, lobbyists and some scientists themselves, into two polarized camps: those that who claim that current climate change is insignificant and/or of non-anthropogenic origin, and those who predict irreversible climate change in the near future and advocate a precautionary approach to anthropogenic contributions. As a science policy advisor to a Member of Congress active in the climate policy debate over the past year, I have observed firsthand most of the scientific information on climate change presented to Congress being partitioned into these camps. The political debate surrounding climate change policy has centered on the policymakers' understanding of scientific uncertainty. Communication by researchers of the definition of risk and uncertainty in climate science, in the language and framework of the legislative debate, is of utmost importance in order for policymakers to effectively understand and utilize science in the decision-making process. A comparison with the recent white paper on climate change policy developed by the UK Science and Technology council and currently adopted by UK policymakers demonstrates the importance of a general public understanding of the existing magnitude of climate change, uncertainties in the rate of future climate variability and its associated economic and social costs. Communication of research results on climate change has been most effective in the policy debate when framed within the context of economic or security risks in the short term. Other effective methods include communicating local and regional climate scenarios and associated probabilities to individual policy-makers, as is currently being utilized to promote sponsorship of the Climate Stewardship Act in Congress.

Climate change, conflict and health.

PubMed

Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

2015-10-01

Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

2016-04-01

Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the urban heat island and urban expansion is relevant, and to what extent the urban expansion can be included in the coarse-to-high resolution translation.

Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, L; Maclean, J D; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Ford, J D; Ogden, N H

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2008-11-01

The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.

Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

PubMed Central

Berrang-Ford, L.; MacLean, J. D.; Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Ford, J. D.; Ogden, N. H.

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PubMed Central

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

2016-04-01

While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between theory and practice. Along with its usage in graduate and postgraduate education, "Climate" is used as a framework for a developed basic information course on climate change for common public. In this course basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are described for non-specialists. The course will also include links to relevant information resources on topical issues of Earth Sciences and a number of case studies, which are carried out for a selected region to consolidate the received knowledge.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

PubMed

Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

2013-10-01

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Gareth P.; Whittington, H.(Bert) W.

2002-07-01

The continuing and increased use of renewable energy sources, including hydropower, is a key strategy to limit the extent of future climate change. Paradoxically, climate change itself may alter the availability of this natural resource, adversely affecting the financial viability of both existing and potential schemes. Here, a model is described that enables the assessment of the relationship between changes in climate and the viability, technical and financial, of hydro development. The planned Batoka Gorge scheme on the Zambezi River is used as a case study to validate the model and to predict the impact of climate change on river flows, electricity production and scheme financial performance. The model was found to perform well, given the inherent difficulties in the task, although there is concern regarding the ability of the hydrological model to reproduce the historic flow conditions of the upper Zambezi Basin. Simulations with climate change scenarios illustrate the sensitivity of the Batoka Gorge scheme to changes in climate. They suggest significant reductions in river flows, declining power production, reductions in electricity sales revenue and consequently an adverse impact on a range of investment measures.

A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.

2009-12-01

Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society. "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March 2009

Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses

PubMed Central

Esty, Daniel C.

2018-01-01

In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community’s backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership. PMID:29698101

Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

PubMed

Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

2018-04-01

In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

Carbon Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-12-01

The Charney report (22 pages including bibliography and appendices) was written when atmospheric CO2 was 334 ppmv (1979). It estimates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5C for a doubling of CO2, and points out the warming delay due to the slow penetration of heat into intermediate depths in the oceans and the decreasing capacity of the oceans to serve a CO2 sink. “We may not be given a warning until the CO2 loading is such that an appreciable climate change is inevitable. The equilibrium warming will eventually occur; it will merely have been postponed.” CO2 exceeded 385 ppmv in 2008, and the warning signs are now abundantly evident. One of the “slow” feedbacks not included in the Charney Report involves the interaction between the land carbon cycle and climate change. The carbon cycle on land is coupled to the water and energy cycles. This paper reviews positive and negative carbon-climate feedbacks associated with changes in the function and distribution of land ecosystems. These feedbacks, once in gear, will magnify climate sensitivity and accelerate global warming.

Promotion of Youth-Led Enterprises in Off-Grid Renewable Energy. Youth Employment Summit. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Development Center, Inc, 2004

2004-01-01

The focus of this project was to address global climate change and, in the same context, analyze how proposed solutions could simultaneously enhance employment opportunities for youth. The outcomes of the project include: (1) greater awareness and engagement of youth in climate change issues, including the need to promote renewable energy…

Evidence for a prepupal diapause in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; E. Matthew Hansen

2017-01-01

Dormancy strategies, including diapause and quiescence, enable insects to evade adverse conditions and ensure seasonally appropriate life stages. A mechanistic understanding of a species’ dormancy is necessary to predict population response in a changing climate. Climate change is influencing distribution patterns and population success of many species, including...

Climate change adaptation and mitigation options a guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems present a pressing need for better scientific understanding and the development of new science-management partnerships. Understanding the effects of stressors and disturbances (including climatic variability), and developing and testing science-based management options to deal...

Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century

Treesearch

J. Brown; V.E. Romanovsky

2008-01-01

Recent assessments have considered present-day and future responses of permafrost terrain to climate change; included are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and United Nations Environment Programme assessments (Romanovsky et al., 2007), the on-going National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) annual...

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

The Role of Social Influences on Pro-Environment Behaviors in the San Diego Region.

PubMed

Estrada, Mica; Schultz, P Wesley; Silva-Send, Nilmini; Boudrias, Michel A

2017-04-01

From a social psychological perspective, addressing the threats of climate change involves not only education, which imparts objective facts upon a passive individual, but also a socializing process. The Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) provides a theoretical framework that connects acquiring climate change knowledge with integration into a community, which results in greater engagement in climate friendly behaviors. Survey data were collected from 1000 residents in San Diego County. Measures included (a) knowledge about climate change; (b) self-efficacy, what pro-environmental actions they felt they could do; (c) identity, to what extent they identified as part of a community that is concerned about climate change; (d) values, endorsement of values of the community that is concerned about climate change; and (e) pro-environmental behavior, engagement in conservation behaviors. Results indicated that self-efficacy and values mediated the relationship between knowledge and pro-environmental behavior.

What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

PubMed

Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and the Role of Planning Instruments - The Example of the Dresden Region (Saxony/Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, J.; Juta, K.; Nobis, A.

2009-04-01

In the past, identifying anthropogenic influences on climate change, scenario analyses and issues of climate change mitigation were predominant approaches in climate change research (IPCC 2007). Currently, for instance in Germany, climate impact research on regional level comes to the forefront of research and policy making. Climate change has become an important topic on the agenda of politicians, administration and planning. In order to counteract the (unavoidable) climate change and its impacts it is necessary to develop adaptation strategies. At present, such strategies and guidelines are formulated on international, supranational and national level. The initial point was the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 where the contracting states obligated themselves to develop national (and regional) programmes for adaptation. In 2007 the European Commission published its Green Paper called Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe. The paper states that adaptation efforts have to be intensified at different (spatial) levels (local, regional, national, and so forth). Furthermore, coordinating these efforts is of high importance. With the recent agreement on the German Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (DAS 2008) in December 2008, federal government tries to accomplish this task. The German strategy mainly focuses on two elements: decreasing vulnerability and increasing adaptability. While the above mentioned strategies have presented information and policies concerning climate change and adaptation on international, supranational and national level, such documents dońt yet exist on regional level. However, because of their close link to the local level the regions are of high importance for adaptation strategies. Therefore, the Leibniz-Institute of Ecological and Regional Development developed a transdisciplinary project to formulate and implement the so-called Integrated Regional Climate Adaptation Programme (IRCAP) for the Model Region of Dresden (project REGKLAM). The REGKLAM-project is based on regionalised scenarios of climate change and includes measures of climate change adaptation to change for instance, urban form, infrastructure assets (e.g., reservoirs) and land use. Various institutions from politics, administration, economy, and research as well as civil society are involved in the project (the city of Dresden, several ministries and authorities of Saxony, the Dresden Chamber of Industry and Commerce and the University of Dresden). The IRCAP is planned to be an informal, cross-sectoral instrument of adaptation to climate change. As a regional programme, the IRCAP is addressed to decision-makers of the region of Dresden (defined, for instance, as planning region). Its function is to complement and coordinate existing instruments and measures. These instruments also include instruments of environmental and spatial planning on the regional level. Spatial and environmental planning can rely on a wide range of formal and informal instruments on different spatial, administrative, and sectoral levels, e.g. land use and landscape plans. Our contribution to the EGU conference aims to clear the role and relevance of the existing formal and informal planning instruments in the region of Dresden for the process of developing the IRCAP. Firstly, a survey is conducted for the purpose of identifying all relevant planning instruments. The identification process is based on specific criteria, for example: reference to the region, contents relating to the topic of climate change respectively climate adaptation. Secondly, the presentation argues for a selection of those planning instruments which seem to be most relevant for the process of developing an IRCAP. This selection process is based on specific criteria which include, for instance, complexity of expected effects, reference to regional and sectoral vulnerability, opportunity for future change of the existing planning instruments (e.g., current process of updating), interests of project partners and stakeholders. Thirdly, as a result, an overview of relevant planning instruments in the region of Dresden is shown, including their current status and statements about their relevance for the topic of climate adaptation strategies. Finally it is derived that this procedure provides a basis for the following possibilities: Adapting existing planning instruments, integrate contents of existing planning instruments in the IRCAP process, or develop and define new strategies or measures on the way to an IRCAP.