Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

PubMed

Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

2018-04-01

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global warming at the summit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

2014-11-01

Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming -- Science and anti-science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preining, O.

1995-06-01

The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyondmore » science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.« less

Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

2016-09-01

Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Various methods exist to calculate global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHG) as measures of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agroecosystems. Little is, however, known about net GWP and GHGI that account for all sources and sinks of GHG emissions. Sources of GHG include...

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

College Students' Misconceptions of Environmental Issues Related to Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

Students are currently exposed to world environmental problems--including global warming and the greenhouse effect--in science classes at various points during their K-12 and college experience. However, the amount and depth of explosure to these issues can be quite variable. Students are also exposed to sources of misinformation leading to…

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2017-08-01

Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for assessing and monitoring impacts of chemicals on ecosystems facing global warming. We advise complementing existing monitoring approaches with directly quantifying ecosystem processes and services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

2010-01-01

This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, Casey R.

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses. Finally, I present the implications this conundrum has for teaching about global warming in a politically polarized atmosphere.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Teaching Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobson, Art

2004-05-01

Every citizen's education should include socially relevant science courses because, as the American Association for the Advancement of Science puts it, "Without a scientifically literate population, the outlook for a better world is not promising." I have developed a conceptual liberal-arts physics course that covers the major principles of classical physics, emphasizes modern/contemporary physics, and includes societal topics such as global warming, ozone depletion, transportation, exponential growth, scientific methodology, risk assessment, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, and the energy future. The societal topics, occupying only about 15% of the class time, appear to be the main cause of the surprising popularity of this course among non-scientists. I will outline some ideas for incorporating global warming into such a course or into any other introductory physics course. For further details, see my textbook Physics: Concepts and Connections (Prentice Hall, 3rd edition 2003).

Will nitrogen deposition mitigate warming-increased soil respiration in a young subtropical plantation?

Treesearch

Xiaofei Liu; Zhijie Yang; Chengfang Lin; Christian P. Giardina; Decheng Xiong; Weisheng Lin; Shidong Chen; Chao Xu; Guangshui Chen; Jinsheng Xie; Yiqing Li; Yusheng Yang

2017-01-01

Global change such as climate warming and nitrogen (N) deposition is likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) cycling, including soil respiration (Rs), the largest CO2 source from soils to the atmosphere. To examine the effects of warming, N addition and their interactions on Rs, we...

Lasting effect of soil warming on organic matter decomposition depends on tillage practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global warming affects various parts of carbon (C) cycle including acceleration of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition with strong feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentration. Despite many soil warming studies showed changes of microbial community structure, very few were focused on the effect of ...

Will Global Warming Cause a Rise in Sea Level? A Simple Activity about the States of Water

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oguz, Ayse

2009-01-01

In this activity, a possible problem related to global warming is clarified by the principle of states of water. The activity consists of an experiment that includes three scientific principles: Archimedes' Principle, the Law of Conservation of Matter, and the fluidity of liquids. The experiment helps students raise questions and open new horizons…

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

Warming Up to STS. Activities to Encourage Environmental Awareness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenthal, Dorothy B.

1990-01-01

Developed is an interdisciplinary unit that deals with global warming and the greenhouse effect. Included are 10 lessons that can be used to supplement existing plans or used as a basis for developing a new unit. Included are modeling, laboratory, graphing, role-playing, and discussion activities. (KR)

Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

PubMed

Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

2012-10-01

Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

PubMed

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Davis, W Matthew; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2018-05-01

International climate change agreements typically specify global warming thresholds as policy targets 1 , but the relative economic benefits of achieving these temperature targets remain poorly understood 2,3 . Uncertainties include the spatial pattern of temperature change, how global and regional economic output will respond to these changes in temperature, and the willingness of societies to trade present for future consumption. Here we combine historical evidence 4 with national-level climate 5 and socioeconomic 6 projections to quantify the economic damages associated with the United Nations (UN) targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and those associated with current UN national-level mitigation commitments (which together approach 3 °C warming 7 ). We find that by the end of this century, there is a more than 75% chance that limiting warming to 1.5 °C would reduce economic damages relative to 2 °C, and a more than 60% chance that the accumulated global benefits will exceed US$20 trillion under a 3% discount rate (2010 US dollars). We also estimate that 71% of countries-representing 90% of the global population-have a more than 75% chance of experiencing reduced economic damages at 1.5 °C, with poorer countries benefiting most. Our results could understate the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C if unprecedented extreme outcomes, such as large-scale sea level rise 8 , occur for warming of 2 °C but not for warming of 1.5 °C. Inclusion of other unquantified sources of uncertainty, such as uncertainty in secular growth rates beyond that contained in existing socioeconomic scenarios, could also result in less precise impact estimates. We find considerably greater reductions in global economic output beyond 2 °C. Relative to a world that did not warm beyond 2000-2010 levels, we project 15%-25% reductions in per capita output by 2100 for the 2.5-3 °C of global warming implied by current national commitments 7 , and reductions of more than 30% for 4 °C warming. Our results therefore suggest that achieving the 1.5 °C target is likely to reduce aggregate damages and lessen global inequality, and that failing to meet the 2 °C target is likely to increase economic damages substantially.

Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.

PubMed

DeSantis, Larisa R G; Feranec, Robert S; MacFadden, Bruce J

2009-06-03

Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality. Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4) grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.

Understanding primary school science teachers' pedagogical content knowledge: The case of teaching global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chordnork, Boonliang; Yuenyong, Chokchai

2018-01-01

This aim of this research was to investigate primary school science teachers understanding and teaching practice as well as the influence on teaching and learning a topic like global warming. The participants were four primary science teachers, who were not graduated in science education. Methodology was the case study method, which was under the qualitative research regarded from interpretive paradigm. Data were collected by openended questionnaire, semi-structure interview, and document colleting. The questionnaire examined teachers' background, teachers' understanding of problems and threats of science teaching, desiring of development their PCK, sharing the teaching approaches, and their ideas of strength and weakness. a semi-structured interview was conducted based on the approach for capturing PCK of Loughran [23] content representation (CoRe). And, the document was collected to clarify what evidence which was invented to effect on students' learning. These document included lesson plan, students' task, and painting about global warming, science projects, the picture of activities of science learning, the exercise and test. Data analysis employed multiple approach of evidence looking an issue from each primary science teachers and used triangulation method to analyze the data with aiming to make meaning of teachers' representation of teaching practice. These included descriptive statistics, CoRe interpretation, and document analysis. The results show that teachers had misunderstanding of science teaching practice and they has articulated the pedagogical content knowledge in terms of assessment, goal of teaching and linking to the context of socio cultural. In contrast, knowledge and belief of curriculum, students' understanding of content global warming, and strategies of teaching were articulated indistinct by non-graduate science teacher. Constructing opportunities for personal development, the curiosity of the student learning center, and linking context of socio-culture were the creative factor in the teaching global warming. On the other hand, the teachers had an idea that lack of technology and the defect of child's intelligence were hinder factors teaching global warming.

Bibliography of global change, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

Global Warming: Its Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-19

The approach to this topic will be to look at the science behind anthropogenic global warming . Is man largely responsible for causing global warming due...paper will then investigate the nexus between global warming and U.S. national security policy. It will address the challenges facing U.S. leaders and...policy makers as they tackle the issue of global warming and its implications for U.S. policy. Finally it will conclude with recommendations for those

Life's Span, Global Warming and Ethics: Do Counsellors Have a Part to Play in Averting a Potential Catastrophe?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornforth, Susan C.

2008-01-01

In this paper I take the position that global warming is the most serious threat to the well-being, including the psychological health, of all peoples in all parts of the world. It is of particular significance to indigenous peoples: for example, those from small island states, those who inhabit low-lying deltas, and those who do not have access…

78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-05

... Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain... the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in... global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on...

Adding insult to injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friebele, Elaine

New predictions and observations suggest that global warming will exact the highest costs on developing countries. A recent economic analysis of global climate change indicates that developed countries, the primary emitters of carbon dioxide, would benefit by $82 billion per year from a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, while underdeveloped countries would lose $40 billion per year.For the economic analysis, global climate predictions were combined with economic data (for agriculture, forestry, coastal resources, energy, and tourism), but natural climate variability, including frosts, droughts, or severe thunderstorms, was not included. Countries predicted to suffer the greatest economic losses from global warming are island nations, said Michael Schlesinger, a University of Illinois atmospheric scientist who performed the economic analysis with colleagues from Yale University and Middlebury College. “These countries have long coast lines, sensitive tourism industries, and small, undeveloped economies.”

Heating up the science classroom through global warming: An investigation of argument in earth system science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, Diane Mary

This research investigated how the use of argument within an earth system science perspective offers potential opportunities for students to develop skills of scientific reasoning. Earth system science views Earth as a synergistic system governed by complex interdependencies between physical and biological spheres. Earth system science presents familiar and compelling societal problems about Earth's environment thereby providing a highly motivational vehicle for engaging students in science. Using global warming as an application of earth system science, my research investigated how middle school and undergraduate students use scientific evidence when constructing and assessing arguments. This dissertation includes three related research studies. The first study took in place in three seventh grade science classrooms and investigated student engagement in a global warming debate. This study illustrated students used evidence to support their central argument; to negate the central argument of the opposing side; to present challenges to the opposing side; and to raise new questions. The second research study is a comparative study and investigated how other students under different instructional settings constructed their arguments on the cause of global warming from the same evidence. This study took place in two seventh grade science classrooms. This study demonstrated that when constructing personal arguments on global warming, students developed an earth system perspective as they considered and integrated different pieces of evidence. Students participating in debate where given a particular view to defend and focused on evidence matching this view, thereby displaying singular views of the cause of global warming. The third research study investigated students abilities to scientifically assess arguments. By analyzing students' written evaluations of arguments on the global climate presented during oral debates, this study demonstrated that undergraduates focus on the overall argument presentation with little attention given to the validity of specific argument components. The primary outcome of these studies is the recommendation that students be provided with opportunities to engage in a variety of argumentation practices, including, but not limited to, debate, constructing arguments reflective of personal views and assessing arguments. Closely coupled with this is the recommendation is that explicit instruction in scientific argumentation accompany classroom activities.

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

2016-01-01

The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2016-02-04

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.1634 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

PubMed

Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

2011-01-01

Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

People, Pope and Planet: A Hermeneutic and Spectacle Analysis of "Laudato Si'" for Global Citizenship Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaudelli, William

2017-01-01

Global citizenship education presents a number of challenges for educators, including the wide variety of texts available to be studied. I explore "Laudato Si'," Pope Francis' 2015 statement on global warming and human development. "Laudato Si'" includes contents that are broad, connective, and significant/relevant, making it a…

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

America’s Security Role in a Changing World: A Global Strategic Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

actually three interrelated crises: a global warming crisis, fuel crisis, and diplomatic crisis. Global warming threatens to create an environmental...which is a diplomatic crisis, particularly for the United States. Global warming is already being used as a dip- lomatic wedge issue against America...mitigating or stopping transnational threats 4 INSS Proceedings April 7–8, 2009 actors, and effects of global warming . A result of these increasing

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1995-01-01

A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

PubMed

Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

2015-06-01

Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

75 FR 62115 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Commonwealth of Massachusetts Petition for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-07

... requirements. Examples of these requirements cited by Massachusetts include its Global Warming Solutions Act...), Bard Manufacturing Company Inc., Carrier Residential and Light Commercial Systems, Goodman Global Inc...

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

PubMed

Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of global warming. A high proportion of respondents reported that they perceived that global warming would worsen, were concerned that it would affect them and their families and had already made changes in their lives because of it. These findings support a readiness in the population to deal with global warming. Future research and programs are needed to investigate population-level strategies for future action. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Global Warming And Meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratu, S.

2012-04-01

In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

Do Americans Understand That Global Warming Is Harmful to Human Health? Evidence From a National Survey.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Rosenthal, Seth; Feinberg, Geoff; Leiserowitz, Anthony A

2015-01-01

Global warming has significant negative consequences for human health, with some groups at greater risk than others. The extent to which the public is aware of these risks is unclear; the limited extant research has yielded discrepant findings. This paper describes Americans' awareness of the health effects of global warming, levels of support for government funding and action on the issue, and trust in information sources. We also investigate the discrepancy in previous research findings between assessments based on open- versus closed-ended questions. A nationally representative survey of US adults (N = 1275) was conducted online in October 2014. Measures included general attitudes and beliefs about global warming, affective assessment of health effects, vulnerable populations and specific health conditions (open- and closed-ended), perceived risk, trust in sources, and support for government response. Most respondents (61%) reported that, before taking the survey, they had given little or no thought to how global warming might affect people's health. In response to a closed-ended question, many respondents (64%) indicated global warming is harmful to health, yet in response to an open-ended question, few (27%) accurately named one or more specific type of harm. In response to a closed-ended question, 33% indicated some groups are more affected than others, yet on an open-ended question only 25% were able to identify any disproportionately affected populations. Perhaps not surprising given these findings, respondents demonstrated only limited support for a government response: less than 50% of respondents said government should be doing more to protect against health harms from global warming, and about 33% supported increased funding to public health agencies for this purpose. Respondents said their primary care physician is their most trusted source of information on this topic, followed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and their local public health department. Most Americans report a general sense that global warming can be harmful to health, but relatively few understand the types of harm it causes or who is most likely to be affected. Perhaps as a result, there is only moderate support for an expanded public health response. Primary care physicians and public health officials appear well positioned to educate the public about the health relevance of climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

PubMed

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

What have we learned from global change manipulative experiments in China? A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Fu, Zheng; Niu, Shuli; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Although China has the largest population in the world, a faster rate of warming than the global average, and an active global change research program, results from many of the global change experiments in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems have not been included in global syntheses. Here, we specifically analyze the observed responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in global change manipulative experiments in China, and compare these responses to those from other regions of the world. Most global change factors, vegetation types, and treatment methods that have been studied or used elsewhere in the world have also been studied and applied in China. The responses of terrestrial ecosystem C and N cycles to N addition and climate warming in China are similar in both direction and intensity to those reported in global syntheses. In Chinese ecosystems as elsewhere, N addition significantly increased aboveground (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB), litter mass, dissolved organic C, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Warming stimulated AGB, BGB and the root-shoot ratio. Increasing precipitation accelerated GEP, NEP, microbial respiration, soil respiration, and ecosystem respiration. Our findings complement and support previous global syntheses and provide insight into regional responses to global change. PMID:26205333

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-01-01

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

Planning for Climate Change: What Should the Air Force Do

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-26

cap that contains a patch depicting the world with a melting ice cube and the words ― Global Warming - It‘s Not Cool‖ embroidered on it. As I have...important to distinguish between these terms and the often used term ‗ global warming .‘ In a strict sense, global warming is defined as ―an average...longer).‖ 10 In common usage and popular discussion the terms ‗ global warming ‘ and ‗ global climate change‘ are often used interchangeably. The

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

2011-01-01

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

Cryoinsulation Material Development to Mitigate Obsolescence Risk for Global Warming Potential Foams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Protz, Alison; Bruyns, Roland; Nettles, Mindy

2015-01-01

Cryoinsulation foams currently being qualified for the Space Launch System (SLS) core stage are nonozone- depleting substances (ODP) and are compliant with current environmental regulations. However, these materials contain the blowing agent HFC-245fa, a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), which is a Global Warming Potential (GWP) substance. In August 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a policy change to reduce or eliminate certain HFCs, including HFC-245fa, in end-use categories including foam blowing agents beginning in 2017. The policy proposes a limited exception to allow continued use of HFC and HFC-blend foam blowing agents for military or space- and aeronautics-related applications, including rigid polyurethane spray foams, but only until 2022.

On the direct impact of the CO2 concentration rise to the global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubereau, Alfred; Iglev, Hristo

2013-10-01

The growing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is often considered as the dominant factor for the global warming during the past decades. The noted correlation, however, does not answer the question about causality. In addition, the reported temperature data do not display a simple relationship between the monotonic concentration increase from 1880 to 2010 and the non-monotonic temperature rise during the same period. We have performed new measurements for optically thick samples of CO2 and investigate its role for the greenhouse effect on the basis of these spectroscopic data. Using simplified global models the warming of the surface is computed and a relatively modest effect is found, only: from the reported CO2 concentration rise in the atmosphere from 290 to 385 ppmv in 1880 to 2010 we derive a direct temperature rise of 0.26+/-0.01\\ \\text{K} . Including the simultaneous feedback effect of atmospheric water we still arrive at a minor CO2 contribution of less than 33% to the reported global warming of {\\sim}1.2\\ \\text{K} . It is suggested that other factors that are known to influence the greenhouse effect, e.g. air pollution by black carbon should be considered in more detail to fully understand the global temperature change.

Weather it's Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

2004-12-01

For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

PubMed Central

Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.; Phillips, T. J.; Lobell, D. B.; Delire, C.; Mirin, A.

2007-01-01

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. PMID:17420463

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation.

PubMed

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

2007-04-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M

2006-10-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has amore » net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.« less

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Would limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2°C prevent an ice-free Arctic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James; Williamson, Daniel

2017-04-01

The Paris Agreement to combat climate change includes an aspirational goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, substantially more ambitious than the previous target of 2°C. One of the most visible and iconic aspects of recent climate change is the dramatic loss of Arctic sea-ice, which is having profound implications on the environment, ecosystems and human inhabitants of this region and beyond. The concept of an 'ice-free Arctic' has captured scientific attention and public imagination. Scientists commonly define this as when the Arctic first becomes ice-free at the end of summer. Without efforts to slow manmade global warming, an ice-free Arctic would likely occur in summer by the middle of this century. But would limiting warming to 1.5°C, or even 2°C, prevent the Arctic ever going ice-free? Different climate models give vastly different projections of the lowest sea-ice extent given global warming of up to 1.5°C or up to 2°C. Models that over-estimate (or under-estimate) sea-ice extent in the last ten years are also those that project more ice (or less ice) remaining into the future. Here we use this relationship to observationally constrain climate model projections of future Arctic sea-ice cover. We obtain an observationally-constrained central prediction of 2.9 million square kilometres for the minimum sea-ice extent if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, or 1.2 million square kilometres if global warming remains below 2°C. Using Bayesian statistics allows us to compare estimates of the probability of an ice-free Arctic for the 1.5°C or 2°C target. We estimate there is less than a 1-in-100000 (exceptionally unlikely in IPCC parlance) chance of an ice-free Arctic if global warming is stays below 1.5°C, and around a 1-in-3 chance (39%; about as likely as not) if global warming is limited to 2.0°C. We suppose then that a summer ice-free Arctic is virtually certain to be avoided if the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is met. However, the 2°C target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by countries to support the Paris Agreement (which imply warming of 2.6 to 3.1°C) would likely (66 to 74%) lead to the Arctic going ice-free.

Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records.

PubMed

Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

2013-02-05

The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07-0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend.

Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records

PubMed Central

Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

2013-01-01

The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend. PMID:23345448

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Warming-Induced Changes to the Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Simpson, M. J.; Simpson, A. J.; Wilson, K. P.; Williams, D.

2007-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) contains two times more carbon than the atmosphere and the potential changes to SOM quantity and quality with global warming are a major concern. It is commonly believed that global warming will accelerate the decomposition of labile SOM compounds while refractory SOM constituents will remain stable. However, experimental evidence of molecular-level changes to SOM composition with global warming is currently lacking. Here we employ SOM biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study SOM composition and degradation in a soil warming experiment in southern Ontario, Canada. The soil warming experiment consisted of a control and a treatment plot in a mixed forest that had a temperature difference of about 5 degrees C for 14 months. Before soil warming the control and treatment plots had the same organic carbon (OC) content and SOM composition. Soil warming significantly increased soil OC content and the abundance of cutin-derived carbon originating from leaf tissues and decreased carbohydrates that are regarded as easily degradable. Lignin components, which are believed to be part of the stable and slowly-cycling SOM, were observed to be in an advanced stage of degradation. This observation is corroborated by increases in fungal biomass in the warmed soil because fungi are considered the primary decomposer of lignin in the soil environment. An NMR study of SOM in the warmed and control plots indicates that alkyl carbon, mainly originating from plant cuticles in the soil, increased in the warmed soil while O-alkyl carbon, primarily occurring in carbohydrates, decreased. Aromatic and phenolic carbon regions, which include the main structures found in lignin, decreased in the warmed soil. These data collectively suggest that there is a great potential for lignin degradation with soil warming, and that the refractory (aromatic) soil carbon storage may be reduced as a result of increased fungal growth in a warmer climate.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.

PubMed

Baer, Hans A

2008-01-01

This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our...hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in...averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

Policy on global warming: fiddling while the globe burns?

PubMed

Weston, Del

2009-08-01

To assess the extent that the health consequences of global warming and the responses to it take due account of its impact on poverty and inequality. Reviewing the relevant literature on global warming, proposed solutions and the impact. To date, too little attention has been paid to the health consequences arising from the increased poverty and inequality that global warming will bring. When these are combined with issues arising from the economic melt-down, food shortages, peak oil, etc. we are heading for a global public health crisis of immeasurable magnitude. Solutions lie in rethinking the global economic system that we have relied upon over the past several decades and the global institutions that have led and fed off that global system - the IMF, the World Bank and so on. Public health practitioners need to look and act globally more often. They need to better recognise the links between global warming and the global financial crisis. How the latter is dealt with will determine whether the former can be resolved. It is in this global political economy arena that future action in public health lies.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Global warming potential of pavements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad

2009-09-01

Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.

2018-01-01

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas—including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events. PMID:29457133

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S

2018-02-01

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas-including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics-still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events.

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE PAGES

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

2016-03-30

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

Stochastic Modeling and Global Warming Trend Extraction For Ocean Acoustic Travel Times.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-06

consideration and that these models can not currently be relied upon by themselves to predict global warming . Experimental data is most certainly needed, not...only to measure global warming itself, but to help improve the ocean model themselves. (AN)

What is "good reasoning" about global warming? A comparison of high school students and specialists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Stephen Thomas

This study compares the knowledge and reasoning about global warming of 10 twelfth grade students and 6 specialists, including scientists and policy analysts. The study uses global warming as a context for addressing the broad objective of formulating goals for scientific literacy. Subjects evaluated a set of articles about global warming and evaluated policies proposed to ameliorate global warming, including a gasoline tax and a "feebate" system of fees and rebates on automobiles. All students and one scientist participated in a full treatment involving interviews and activities with a computer program (discussed below), averaging about 3.75 hours. In addition, five specialists participated in interviews only, averaging one hour. One line of analysis focuses on knowledge content, examining how subjects applied perspectives from both natural and social sciences. This analysis is positioned as an empirical component to the movement to develop content standards for science education, as exemplified by the recommendations of Science for All Americans (SFAA). Some aspects of competent performance in the present study hinged upon knowledge and skills advocated by SFAA (e.g., fluency with themes of science such as scale). Other aspects involved such skills as evaluating economic interests behind a scientific argument in the media or considering hidden costs in a policy area. By characterizing a range of approaches to how students and specialists performed the experimental tasks, the present study affords a view of scientific literacy not possible without this type of information. Another line of analysis investigates a measure of coherent argumentation from a computer program, Convince Me, in relation to policy reasoning. The program is based on a connectionist model, ECHO. Subjects used the program to create arguments about the aforementioned policies. The study compares Convince Me's Model's Fit argumentation measure to other measures, including ratings of 6 human judges about the quality of the arguments, a measure of the stability of subjects' views, and the number of statements in subjects' arguments. The pattern of significant correlations among several of these measures, plus interview findings, help to clarify cognitive and educational issues involved with using Convince Me (or related programs) in this area.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

2017-10-01

Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, K.; Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Schmidt, A.; Frame, D. J.; Forster, P.; Matthews, D.

2016-12-01

An extension of the idea of betting markets as a means of revealing opinions about future climate are climate policies indexed to geophysical indicators: for example, to ensure net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by the time anthropogenic warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, given about 1 degree of warming already, emissions must fall, on average, by 20% of their current value for every tenth of a degree of anthropogenic warming from now on. In principle, policies conditioned on some measure of attributable warming are robust to uncertainty in the global climate response: the risk of a higher or lower response than expected is borne by those affected by climate change mitigation policy rather than those affected by climate change impacts, as is the case with emission targets for specific years based on "current understanding" of the response. To implement any indexed policy, or to agree payout terms for any bet on future climate, requires consensus on the definition of the index: how is it calculated, and who is responsible for releasing it? The global mean surface temperature of the current decade relative to pre-industrial may vary by 0.1 degree or more depending on precisely what is measured, what is defined as pre-industrial, and the treatment of regions with sparse data coverage in earlier years. Indices defined using different conventions, however, are all expected to evolve very similarly over the coming decades, so agreeing on a conservative, traceable index such as HadCRUT is more important than debating the "true" global temperature. A more important question is whether indexed policies and betting markets should focus on total warming, including natural and anthropogenic drivers and internal variability, or an Anthropogenic Warming Index (AWI) representing an unbiased estimate of warming attributable to human influence to date. We propose a simple AWI based solely on observed temperatures and global natural and anthropogenic forcing estimates. It is much less volatile than total observed warming, which might discourage participation in betting markets, but would be a substantial advantage for indexed policies. It is also much more relevant to the UNFCCC goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to "well below" 2 degrees. The 2016 value for the AWI will be announced at AGU.

National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

Although numerous historical examples demonstrate how actual climate change has contributed to the rise and fall of powers, global warming , in and of...become convinced that global warming is universally bad and humans are the primary cause, political leaders may develop ill-advised policies restricting

An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.

PubMed

Hmielowski, Jay D; Feldman, Lauren; Myers, Teresa A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward

2014-10-01

There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening. © The Author(s) 2013.

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have arisen primarily from political negotiations, and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulationmore » during the warm season, along with warm-season drying over much of the U.S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 C may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.« less

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

PubMed

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

PubMed

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Arctic Security in a Warming World

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

2009). 3 Map based on: “Northwest Passage - Map of Arctic Sea Ice: Global Warming is Opening Canada’s Arctic” http://geology.com/articles/northwest...War College, February 17, 2009) 3. 5 Scott G. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown: the Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming ”, Foreign Affairs...april/kirkpatrick.pdf (accessed February 10, 2010). 45 Thomas R. McCarthy, Jr., Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic, Strategy

Algae-Based Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haoyang, Cai

2018-03-01

Our civilization is facing a series of environmental problems, including global warming and climate change, which are caused by the accumulation of green house gases in the atmosphere. This article will briefly analyze the current global warming problem and propose a method that we apply algae cultivation to absorb carbon and use shellfish to sequestrate it. Despite the importance of decreasing CO2 emissions or developing carbon-free energy sources, carbon sequestration should be a key issue, since the amount of carbon dioxide that already exists in the atmosphere is great enough to cause global warming. Algae cultivation would be a good choice because they have high metabolism rates and provides shellfish with abundant food that contains carbon. Shellfish’s shells, which are difficult to be decomposed, are reliable storage of carbon, compared to dead organisms like trees and algae. The amount of carbon that can be sequestrated by shellfish is considerable. However, the sequestrating rate of algae and shellfish is not high enough to affect the global climate. Research on algae and shellfish cultivation, including gene technology that aims to create “super plants” and “super shellfish”, is decisive to the solution. Perhaps the baton of history will shift to gene technology, from nuclear physics that has lost appropriate international environment after the end of the Cold War. Gene technology is vital to human survival.

Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hileman, Bette

1989-01-01

States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Lifton, Nathaniel A; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

2015-08-21

The ongoing retreat of glaciers globally is one of the clearest manifestations of recent global warming associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. By comparison, the importance of greenhouse gases in driving glacier retreat during the most recent deglaciation, the last major interval of global warming, is unclear due to uncertainties in the timing of retreat around the world. Here we use recently improved cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate calibrations to recalculate the ages of 1,116 glacial boulders from 195 moraines that provide broad coverage of retreat in mid-to-low-latitude regions. This revised history, in conjunction with transient climate model simulations, suggests that while several regional-scale forcings, including insolation, ice sheets and ocean circulation, modulated glacier responses regionally, they are unable to account for global-scale retreat, which is most likely related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

2008-01-01

A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this…

Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

2009-01-01

The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

78 FR 21871 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Revision of the Venting Prohibition for Specific Refrigerant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... Register GWP--Global warming potential HCFC-22--the chemical chlorodifluoromethane, CAS Reg No. 75-45-6... global warming potential. Second, EPA determines whether and to what extent such venting, release, or... discussed four types of environmental risks: ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, volatile...

Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-26

Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

The Army’s Carbon Bootprint

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-06

GWP relative to CO2 • GWP is determined by stability of the chemical in the atmosphere and its capacity to influence global warming Global Warming Potential...GWP) Mr. Larry Webber/(410)436-1231/ Lawrence.webber.us.army.mil 06MAY2009 The Army’s Carbon Bootprint Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Global Warming Potential

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.

PubMed

Mercer, David

2018-02-01

A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

PubMed

Kurane, Ichiro

2010-12-01

Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change signals from climate variability (e.g. changes in water cycle, extremes...), for assessing strengths and limitations of methodologies using high end climate scenarios versus true stabilisation pathways, and for exploring long term risks beyond transient response, with consideration for overshoots and the full timescale of Earth system feedbacks. Lessons learnt from past warm climatic phases may also provide insights complementary to projections, albeit without the perspective of rates of changes that is specific to the issue of 1.5°C global warming. This special report is also designed to be complementary from the other reports in preparation for the IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle (AR6), including the special reports on the ocean and the cryosphere, on land use issues, both scheduled for 2019, and the Working Group main assessment reports, scheduled for 2021-2022.

Considering time in LCA: dynamic LCA and its application to global warming impact assessments.

PubMed

Levasseur, Annie; Lesage, Pascal; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean

2010-04-15

The lack of temporal information is an important limitation of life cycle assessment (LCA). A dynamic LCA approach is proposed to improve the accuracy of LCA by addressing the inconsistency of temporal assessment. This approach consists of first computing a dynamic life cycle inventory (LCI), considering the temporal profile of emissions. Then, time-dependent characterization factors are calculated to assess the dynamic LCI in real-time impact scores for any given time horizon. Although generally applicable to any impact category, this approach is developed here for global warming, based on the radiative forcing concept. This case study demonstrates that the use of global warming potentials for a given time horizon to characterize greenhouse gas emissions leads to an inconsistency between the time frame chosen for the analysis and the time period covered by the LCA results. Dynamic LCA is applied to the US EPA LCA on renewable fuels, which compares the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different biofuels with fossil fuels including land-use change emissions. The comparison of the results obtained with both traditional and dynamic LCA approaches shows that the difference can be important enough to change the conclusions on whether or not a biofuel meets some given global warming reduction targets.

Alternative "global warming" metrics in life cycle assessment: a case study with existing transportation data.

PubMed

Peters, Glen P; Aamaas, Borgar; T Lund, Marianne; Solli, Christian; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

2011-10-15

The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) impact category "global warming" compares emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) using Global Warming Potential (GWP) with a 100-year time-horizon as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Two weaknesses of this approach are (1) the exclusion of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and biophysical factors despite their established importance, and (2) the use of a particular emission metric (GWP) with a choice of specific time-horizons (20, 100, and 500 years). The GWP and the three time-horizons were based on an illustrative example with value judgments and vague interpretations. Here we illustrate, using LCA data of the transportation sector, the importance of SLCFs relative to LLGHGs, different emission metrics, and different treatments of time. We find that both the inclusion of SLCFs and the choice of emission metric can alter results and thereby change mitigation priorities. The explicit inclusion of time, both for emissions and impacts, can remove value-laden assumptions and provide additional information for impact assessments. We believe that our results show that a debate is needed in the LCA community on the impact category "global warming" covering which emissions to include, the emission metric(s) to use, and the treatment of time.

The Discovery of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacCracken, Michael C.

2004-07-01

At the beginning of the twentieth century, the prospect of ``global warming'' as a result of human activities was thought to be far off, and in any case, likely to be beneficial. As we begin the twenty-first century, science adviser to the British government, Sir David King, has said that he considers global warming to be the world's most important problem, including terrorism. Yet, dealing with it has become the subject of a contentious international protocol, numerous conferences of international diplomats, and major scientific assessments and research programs. Spencer Weart, who is director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, has taken on the challenge of explaining how this came to be. In the tradition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established in 1988 to evaluate and assess the state of global warming science, this book is roughly equivalent to the Technical Summary, in terms of its technical level, being quite readable, but with substantive content about the main lines of evidence. Underpinning this relatively concise presentation, there is a well-developed-and still developing-Web site that, like the detailed chapters of the full IPCC assessment reports, provides vastly more information and linkages to a much wider set of reference materials (see http://www.aip.org/history/climate).

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

PubMed Central

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

PubMed

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Observing changes in atmospheric heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-10-01

Globally, air temperatures near the surface over land have been rising in recent decades, and this has been presented as solid evidence of global warming. However, some scientists have argued that total heat content (energy), rather than temperature, should be used as a metric of warming trends. Surface air temperature is only one component of the energy content of the surface atmosphere—kinetic energy and latent heat also contribute. Peterson et al. present the first study to use observational data to estimate global changes in surface energy of the atmosphere over time. They include temperature, kinetic energy, and latent heat in their analysis. The authors found that total global surface atmospheric energy and heat content have increased since the 1970s, even though kinetic energy decreased slightly and in some regions latent heat declined while temperature increased.

40 CFR Appendix H to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes, Effective May 28, 1999

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities emitted. See additional comments 1, 2.... Actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted. See additional.... Actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted. See additional...

Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

2013-01-01

Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gautier, Catherine

2012-01-01

Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first…

77 FR 23209 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Delisting of Eastern DPS of Steller Sea Lions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... five potential sources of threat under this factor: 1. Global Climate Warming and Ocean Acidification... 5. Oil and Gas Development. Global climate warming and ocean acidification pose a potential threat... information suggests it is likely that global warming and ocean acidification may affect eastern North Pacific...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted, the... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted, the... for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted, the... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted, the... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming...

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed

Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

2009-03-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.

Awakening the Scientist Inside: Global Climate Change and the Nature of Science in an Elementary Science Methods Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matkins, Juanita Jo; Bell, Randy L.

2007-01-01

This investigation assessed the impact of situating explicit nature of science (NOS) instruction within the issues surrounding global climate change and global warming (GCC/GW). Participants in the study were 15 preservice elementary teachers enrolled in a science methods course. The instructional intervention included explicit NOS instruction…

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Aviation and the environment : aviation's effects on the global atmosphere are potentially significant and expected to grow

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Concerns about global warming are focusing increasingly on the contribution of human activities, including aviation. Jet aircraft are among many sources of greenhouse gases-gases that can trap heat, potentially increasing the temperature of the earth...

The UNEP State of the Environment Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Dale

1990-01-01

Presents information from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) 1989 State of the World Environment Report. Provides an overview of global environmental concerns, including overpopulation, air and water pollution, global warming, hazardous waste disposal, and species extinction. Reaffirms the need to dedicate research and development…

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

2001-01-01

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

An evaluation of applying the 'Critical thinking model' to teaching global warming to junior high school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Hong, C.; Hsu, Y.

2013-12-01

Climate change is a consequence of interaction among the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere. The causes of climate change are extremely complicated for scientists to explain. The fact that the global climate has kept warming in the past few decades is one example. It remains controversial for scientists whether this warming is the result of human activity or natural causes. This research aims to lead students to discuss the causes of global warming from distinct and controversial viewpoints to help the students realize the uncertainty and complicated characteristics of the global warming issue. The context of applying the critical thinking model to teaching the scientific concepts of climate change and global warming is designed for use in junior high schools. The videos of the upside concept 'An Inconvenient Truth' (a 2006 documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim) and the reverse-side concept 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' (a 2007 documentary film made by British television producer/director Martin Durkin) about the global warming crisis are incorporated into lessons in order to guide students to make their own decisions appropriately when discussing the earth climate change crisis. A questionnaire, individual teacher interviews and observations in class were conducted to evaluate the curriculum. The pre-test and post-test questionnaires showed differences in the students' knowledge, attitudes and behavior towards the global warming phenomenon before and after attending the lessons. The results show that those students who attended the whole curriculum had a significant increase in their knowledge and behavior factors of global climate (P value <0.001*). However, there was no significant improvement in their attitudes between the pre-test and post-test questionnaires (P value=0.329). From the individual interviews, the teachers who gave the lessons indicated that this project could increase the interaction with their students during class and improve the efficiency of learning.

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery.

PubMed

Kim, Mi-Hyung; Kim, Jung-Wk

2010-09-01

This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200kg of CO(2)-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61kg of CO(2)-eq from wet feeding process, 123kg of CO(2)-eq from composting process, and 1010kg of CO(2)-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation

PubMed Central

Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

2015-01-01

The ongoing retreat of glaciers globally is one of the clearest manifestations of recent global warming associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. By comparison, the importance of greenhouse gases in driving glacier retreat during the most recent deglaciation, the last major interval of global warming, is unclear due to uncertainties in the timing of retreat around the world. Here we use recently improved cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate calibrations to recalculate the ages of 1,116 glacial boulders from 195 moraines that provide broad coverage of retreat in mid-to-low-latitude regions. This revised history, in conjunction with transient climate model simulations, suggests that while several regional-scale forcings, including insolation, ice sheets and ocean circulation, modulated glacier responses regionally, they are unable to account for global-scale retreat, which is most likely related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26293133

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

The Understandings of Global Warming and Learning Styles: A Phenomenographic Analysis of Prospective Primary School Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demirkaya, Hilmi

2008-01-01

In this study, statements by prospective primary school teachers such as "I think the word global warming ..." or "I think the term global warming means ..." were analyzed by using qualitative phenomenographic research methods. 142 female (48.3%) and 152 male (51.7%) primary school teacher candidates (n = 294) participated in…

Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of…

75 FR 81179 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Nebraska: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-27

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric... CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1... emissions contribution to global warming based on a single metric. B. What are the general requirements of...

Senior Secondary Indian Students' Views about Global Warming, and Their Implications for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chhokar, Kiran; Dua, Shweta; Taylor, Neil; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

2012-01-01

For individuals to make informed lifestyle choices that may help to reduce global warming, they need some understanding of this phenomenon and the factors that contribute to it. However, there is a "gap" between knowledge about global warming and willingness to take personal action. So, although education may be effective in enhancing…

76 FR 29649 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Pennsylvania; Adoption of Control...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-23

... global warming, through regulations that will harm the economy of the United States,'' and asserts that EPA is attempting to take such action on the issue of global warming which Congress has ``decided that... purpose of addressing global warming. IV. Final Action EPA is approving Pennsylvania's adoption of the CTG...

Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 1. Students' Beliefs and Willingness to Act

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

2009-01-01

Using survey methodology, students' beliefs, and willingness to act, about 16 specific actions related to global warming are compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions. In general there was a disparity between…

Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-01-01

In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

2009-01-01

In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those…

40 CFR 98.3 - What are the general monitoring, reporting, recordkeeping and verification requirements of this...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... request under this paragraph is approved by the Administrator. (k) Revised global warming potentials and... or more compounds in Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials, is not required to submit... to Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials. (1) Best available monitoring methods. From...

On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus" in global warming.

PubMed

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James S; Oreskes, Naomi

2015-11-24

Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the "hiatus". To examine whether the notion of a "hiatus" is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the "hiatus" in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the "hiatus" trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged "hiatus" periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the "pause" used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system "paused" for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K.

Identifying Crucial Issues in Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Motoyoshi; Greve, Ralf; Hara, Toshika; Watanabe, Yutaka W.; Ohmura, Atsumu; Ito, Akihiko; Kawamiya, Michio

2009-01-01

Drastic Change in the Earth System During Global Warming; Sapporo, Japan, 24 June 2008; The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore indicates that global warming is recognized as a real phenomenon critical to human beings. However, humanity's knowledge concerning global warming is based on an uncertainty larger than 50% in the warming rate during the past century. Therefore, scientific clarification is needed to understand important mechanisms that potentially produce positive feedbacks in the Earth system-such mechanisms must be better understood before scientists can develop more reliable predictions. To plan for the future, a symposium was organized at Japan's Hokkaido University in association with the G8 Summit, where the most recent updates on the five urgent issues in climate science were discussed. These issues, considered to be crucial as severe impacts on human society continue to rise, included (1) causes and magnitude of sea level rise; (2) decay of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; (3) disappearance of the summer Arctic sea ice; (4) carbon uptake or emission by the terrestrial ecosystem; and (5) marine ecosystem change resulting in carbon emissions.

Nuclear Technology, Global Warming, and the Politicization of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weart, Spencer

2016-03-01

Since the mid 20th century physical scientists have engaged in two fierce public debates on issues that posed existential risks to modern society: nuclear weapons and global warming. The two overlapped with a third major debate over the deployment of nuclear power reactors. Each controversy included technical disagreements raised by a minority among the scientists themselves. Despite efforts to deal with the issues objectively, the scientists became entangled in left vs. right political polarization. All these debates, but particularly the one over climate change, resulted in a deterioration of public faith in the objectivity and integrity of scientists.

Seawater/Saline Agriculture for Energy, Warming, Water, Rainfall, Land, Food and Minerals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bushnell, Dennis

2006-01-01

The combination of the incipient demise of cheap oil and increasing evidence of Global Warming due to anthropogenic fossil carbon release has reinvigorated the need for and efforts on Renewable energy sources, especially for transportation applications. Biomass/Bio-diesel appears to have many benefits compared to Hydrogen, the only other major renewable transportation fuel candidate. Biomass Production is currently limited by available arable land and fresh water. Halophyte Plants and seawater irrigation proffer a wholly new biomass production mantra using wastelands and very plentiful seawater. Such an approach addresses many-to-most of the major emerging Societal Problems including Land, Water, Food, Warming and Energy. For many reasons, including seawater agriculture, portions of the Sahara appear to be viable candidates for future Biomass Production. The apparent nonlinearity between vegetation cover and atmospheric conditions over North Africa necessitates serious coupled boundary layer Meteorology and Global Circulation Modeling to ensure that this form of Terra Forming is Favorable and to avoid adverse Unintended Consequences.

The Global Energy Budget.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jax, Daniel W.

1992-01-01

Presents a lesson plan about greenhouse effect and global warming. Includes diagrams and graphs from which students are asked to make inferences. Provides background information about how energy enters and leaves the earth system, the energy budget, consequences of obstructing the energy balance, and the greenhouse effect. (three references) (MCO)

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A; Hunter, Paul R; Lake, Iain R

2018-06-12

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

PubMed

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

PubMed Central

Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

2018-01-01

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.

2017-04-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports along the U.S. Northeast Shelf. Given the complications of multiple drivers including species interactions and fishing pressure, it is difficult to predict exactly how species will shift. However, observations of species distribution shifts in the historical record under ocean warming suggest that temperature will play a primary role in influencing how species fare. Our results provide critical information on the potential for suitable thermal habitat on the U.S. Northeast Shelf for demersal species in the region, and may contribute to the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in response to climate change.

JPRS Report, Environmental Issues, Japan: Response Strategies for Global Warming Studied

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-12

views currently held both inside and outside of Japan. To cope with the global warming problem, considerations of more specific issues are needed...assessment of our common and needed efforts which are necessary in order to assess and deal with the issue of global warming more effectively....Advisory Committee on climate change. This volume contains summaries of the reports given by the members of the subgroups. Interest in the global

Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts.

PubMed

Aptroot, A; van Herk, C M

2007-03-01

Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronounced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming.

How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Joffe, Helene

2013-01-01

The present study utilises social representations theory to explore common sense conceptualisations of global warming risk using an in-depth, qualitative methodology. Fifty-six members of a British, London-based 2008 public were initially asked to draw or write four spontaneous "first thoughts or feelings" about global warming. These were then explored via an open-ended, exploratory interview. The analysis revealed that first thoughts, either drawn or written, often mirrored the images used by the British press to depict global warming visually. Thus in terms of media framings, it was their visual rather than their textual content that was spontaneously available for their audiences. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of interview data revealed that global warming was structured around three themata: self/other, natural/unnatural and certainty/uncertainty, reflecting the complex and often contradictory nature of common sense thinking in relation to risk issues.

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Bradley, Raymond S.

2017-01-01

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity. PMID:28076360

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

PubMed

Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

2017-01-01

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.

On the differences between 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement of 2015 has resulted in a drive to limit global warming to 2oC with an aim for a lower 1.5oC target. It is therefore vital that we understand some of the differences we would expect between these two levels of global warming. My research uses coupled climate model projections to investigate where and for what variables we can differentiate between worlds of 1.5oC and 2oC global warming. I place a particular focus on climate extremes and population exposure to those extremes. I have found that there are perceptible benefits in limiting global warming to 1.5oC as opposed to 2oC through reduced frequency and intensity of heat extremes, both over land and in ocean areas where thermal stress on coral has resulted in bleaching. Differences in high and low precipitation extremes between the 1.5oC and 2oC global warming levels are projected for some regions. I have also examined how "scalable" changes from the 1.5oC to 2oC level are. In areas of the world such as Eastern China I find that changes in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations will influence the level of change projected at 1.5oC and 2oC, such that past warming is likely to be a poor indicator of future changes. Overall, my research finds clear benefits to limiting global warming to 1.5oC relative to higher levels.

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duan, Hongbo, E-mail: hbduan@ucas.ac.cn

Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiativemore » forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.« less

Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Mark Z.

2002-10-01

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which 12 identifiable effects of aerosol particles on climate are treated, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) may slow global warming more than may any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a specific period. When all f.f. BC + OM and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions are eliminated together, the period is 25-100 years. It is also estimated that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse gas plus f.f. BC + OM warming minus substantial cooling by other particles. Eliminating all f.f. BC + OM could eliminate 20-45% of net warming (8-18% of total warming before cooling is subtracted out) within 3-5 years if no other change occurred. Reducing CO2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars emitting continuously under the most recent U.S. and E.U. particulate standards (0.08 g/mi; 0.05 g/km) may warm climate per distance driven over the next 100+ years more than equivalent gasoline cars. Thus, fuel and carbon tax laws that favor diesel appear to promote global warming. Toughening vehicle particulate emission standards by a factor of 8 (0.01 g/mi; 0.006 g/km) does not change this conclusion, although it shortens the period over which diesel cars warm to 13-54 years. Although control of BC + OM can slow warming, control of greenhouse gases is necessary to stop warming. Reducing BC + OM will not only slow global warming but also improve human health.

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China.

PubMed

Duan, Hongbo

2017-01-01

As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Student Teachers' Conceptions about Global Warming and Changes in Their Conceptions during Pre-Service Education: A Cross Sectional Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cimer, Sabiha Odabasi; Cimer, Atilla; Ursavas, Nazihan

2011-01-01

Global warming is one of the important environmental problems whose dangerous effects are increasing gradually. The study reported herein aimed to reveal student teachers' conceptions about global warming and the effect of biology teacher education program on their awareness of this environmental issue. An open-ended questionnaire was used to…

The Effects of Instruction with Visual Materials on the Development of Preservice Elementary Teachers' Knowledge and Attitude towards Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

2011-01-01

This study aimed to identify the erroneous knowledge and misconceptions of preservice elementary teachers about global warming and examine the effects of instruction with visual materials on rectifying these misconceptions and fostering a positive attitude towards the issue of global warming. Having a quasi-experimental design, the study made use…

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed Central

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isiorho, S. A.

2016-12-01

The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

Even though the term Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ca. 17 to 14 Ma) has been widely used in the literature since the early 1990's, almost no early-middle Miocene sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records have been published that support climate warming across its onset. Benthic (and diagenetically altered planktic) foram δ18O records show a decrease, suggesting (deep) ocean warming and/or Antarctic ice sheet melting. However, reliable absolute SST proxy records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the warmth of the MMCO was truly global and how its onset relates to the widely recorded positive (Monterey) carbon isotope excursion and volcanism. Finally, it remains uncertain how marine ecosystems responded to this hypothesized warming. We present organic biomarker SST proxy records (Uk'37 and TEX86) spanning the MMCO for several locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean along a pole-to-pole transect, including Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 643 in the Norwegian Sea, ODP Site 1007 on the Great Bahama Bank and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1352 off New Zealand. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. The resulting spatial reconstruction of SST change shows that Middle Miocene warming was global. Nevertheless, the records also show distinct regional variability, including relatively large warming in the Norwegian Sea and a damped signal in the southern hemisphere, suggesting pronounced changes in ocean circulation. The onset of the MMCO was marked by prominent changes in ecological and depositional setting at the studied sites, likely also related to ocean circulation changes.

Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

2017-12-01

We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.

PubMed

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S E; Gibson, P B

2017-09-25

The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5-2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4-34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5-1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2-3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2-10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.

2015-12-01

Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.

I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malott, Richard W.

2010-01-01

In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no…

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meehan, Casey R.

2012-01-01

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz…

Climate Change, Instability and a Full Spectrum Approach to Conflict Prevention in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-23

commander to follow. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Climate Change, Global Warming , Security Cooperation, Stability, Instability, Stabilization, Security...note that global warming could also create similar impacts on resources.19 In modern times disputes over natural resources have erupted into conflict...16. Center for Naval Analysis, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, 18. 17. Michael T. Klare, ― Global Warming Battlefields: How

Protecting the Ozone Shield: A New Public Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

Public Policy Issue; Alterna- 11 tives; Risk Management; Clean Air Act; Global Warming 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 𔄂. SECURITY...pattern of global warming , commonly known as "the greenhouse effect. 1 OVERVIEW OF THE OZONE DEPLETION PUBLIC POLICY ISSUE In 1974, two atmospheric...inhabitants from the harmful effects of increased UVb radiation and global warming . Another dilemma surrounds this public policy issue since the first

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

PubMed

Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

2015-01-01

Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.

Control of Fossil-Fuel Particulate Black Carbon and Organic Matter, the Most Effective Method of Slowing Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.

2001-12-01

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which seven new particles feedbacks to climate are identified, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) will slow global warming more than will any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a definite time period. When all f.f. BC+OM and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions are eliminated together, that period is 20-90 years. It is also found that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse-gas plus f.f. BC+OM warming minus anthropogenic sulfate cooling. Eliminating all f.f. BC+OM could eliminate more than 40 percent of such net warming within three years if no other changes occurred. Reducing CO2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars warm climate more than do equivalent gasoline cars; thus, fuel- and carbon-tax laws that favor diesel promote global warming.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

04/02/2013 Memorandum

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Memo about the proposal to amend the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), including technical amendments, amendments related to global warming potentials (GWPs), and confidentiality determinations for new or revised data elements.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity.

PubMed

Mercado, Lina M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Huntingford, Chris; Oliver, Rebecca J; Clark, Douglas B; Sitch, Stephen; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Kattge, Jens; Harper, Anna B; Cox, Peter M

2018-06-01

Plant temperature responses vary geographically, reflecting thermally contrasting habitats and long-term species adaptations to their climate of origin. Plants also can acclimate to fast temporal changes in temperature regime to mitigate stress. Although plant photosynthetic responses are known to acclimate to temperature, many global models used to predict future vegetation and climate-carbon interactions do not include this process. We quantify the global and regional impacts of biogeographical variability and thermal acclimation of temperature response of photosynthetic capacity on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle between 1860 and 2100 within a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, that emulates 22 global climate models. Results indicate that inclusion of biogeographical variation in photosynthetic temperature response is most important for present-day and future C uptake, with increasing importance of thermal acclimation under future warming. Accounting for both effects narrows the range of predictions of the simulated global land C storage in 2100 across climate projections (29% and 43% globally and in the tropics, respectively). Contrary to earlier studies, our results suggest that thermal acclimation of photosynthetic capacity makes tropical and temperate C less vulnerable to warming, but reduces the warming-induced C uptake in the boreal region under elevated CO 2 . © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

PubMed

Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

2011-02-01

To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events

PubMed Central

D’Ambrosia, Abigail R.; Clyde, William C.; Fricke, Henry C.; Gingerich, Philip D.; Abels, Hemmo A.

2017-01-01

Abrupt perturbations of the global carbon cycle during the early Eocene are associated with rapid global warming events, which are analogous in many ways to present greenhouse warming. Mammal dwarfing has been observed, along with other changes in community structure, during the largest of these ancient global warming events, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM; ~56 million years ago (Ma)]. We show that mammalian dwarfing accompanied the subsequent, smaller-magnitude warming event known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 [ETM2 (~53 Ma)]. Statistically significant decrease in body size during ETM2 is observed in two of four taxonomic groups analyzed in this study and is most clearly observed in early equids (horses). During ETM2, the best-sampled lineage of equids decreased in size by ~14%, as opposed to ~30% during the PETM. Thus, dwarfing appears to be a common evolutionary response of some mammals during past global warming events, and the extent of dwarfing seems related to the magnitude of the event. PMID:28345031

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes.

PubMed

Tran, Tam T; Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh, Khuong V; Op de Beeck, Lin; Stoks, Robby

2016-07-01

How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

PubMed

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijffels, S. A.

2016-12-01

Owing to its immense heat capacity, the global ocean is the fly-wheel of the climate system, absorbing, redistributing and storing heat on long timescales and over great distances. Of the extra heat trapped in the Earth System due to rising greenhouse gases, over 90% is being stored in the global oceans. Tracking this warming has been challenging due to past changes in the coverage and technology used in past ocean observations. Here, I'll review progress in estimating past warming rates and patterns. The warming of Earth's surface is also driving changes in the global hydrological cycle, which also intimately involves the oceans. Global ocean salinity changes reveal another footprint of a warming Earth. Some simple model runs that give insight into observed subsurface changes will also be described, along with an update on current warming rates and patterns as tracked by the global Argo programme. The prospects for the next advances in broadscale ocean monitoring will also be discussed.

Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

PubMed

El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

2012-04-01

Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Force Projection, Strategic Agility and the Big Meltdown

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-18

UNLIMITED Number of Pages 29 ii Abstract of FORCE PROJECTION, STRATEGIC AGILITY AND THE BIG MELTDOWN Due to global warming , the polar icepack which...INTRODUCTION The polar icecap which covers the Arctic Ocean is melting. It is a well-known, scientific fact. Global warming is the generally...operational factors and functions, as applicable. 3 CHAPTER II BACKGROUND Global Warming and the Arctic During this and the last century, researchers have

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

How Climate Change Beliefs among U.S. Teachers Do and Do Not Translate to Students

PubMed Central

Peterson, M. Nils; Bradshaw, Amy

2016-01-01

Research suggests climate change beliefs among science teachers mirror those of the general public, raising questions of whether teachers may be perpetuating polarization of public opinion through their classrooms. We began answering these questions with a survey of middle school science teachers (n = 24) and their students (n = 369) in North Carolina, USA. Similar to previous studies, we found that though nearly all (92.1%) of students had teachers who believe that global warming is happening, few (12%) are in classrooms with teachers who recognize that global warming is anthropogenic. We found that teacher beliefs that global warming is happening and student climate change knowledge were the strongest predictors of student belief that global warming is happening and human caused. Conversely, teacher beliefs about human causes of global warming had no relationship with student beliefs, suggesting that science teachers’ low recognition of the causes of global warming is not necessarily problematic in terms of student outcomes. These findings may be explained by previous research suggesting adolescents interpret scientific information relatively independently of ideological constraints. Though teacher polarization may be problematic in its own right, it appears that as long as climate change information is presented in classrooms, students deduce anthropogenic causes. PMID:27603667

How Climate Change Beliefs among U.S. Teachers Do and Do Not Translate to Students.

PubMed

Stevenson, Kathryn T; Peterson, M Nils; Bradshaw, Amy

2016-01-01

Research suggests climate change beliefs among science teachers mirror those of the general public, raising questions of whether teachers may be perpetuating polarization of public opinion through their classrooms. We began answering these questions with a survey of middle school science teachers (n = 24) and their students (n = 369) in North Carolina, USA. Similar to previous studies, we found that though nearly all (92.1%) of students had teachers who believe that global warming is happening, few (12%) are in classrooms with teachers who recognize that global warming is anthropogenic. We found that teacher beliefs that global warming is happening and student climate change knowledge were the strongest predictors of student belief that global warming is happening and human caused. Conversely, teacher beliefs about human causes of global warming had no relationship with student beliefs, suggesting that science teachers' low recognition of the causes of global warming is not necessarily problematic in terms of student outcomes. These findings may be explained by previous research suggesting adolescents interpret scientific information relatively independently of ideological constraints. Though teacher polarization may be problematic in its own right, it appears that as long as climate change information is presented in classrooms, students deduce anthropogenic causes.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage. PMID:24062439

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J

2013-10-08

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Editor); Rind, D. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Long-term experimental warming alters community composition of ascomycetes in Alaskan moist and dry arctic tundra.

PubMed

Semenova, Tatiana A; Morgado, Luis N; Welker, Jeffrey M; Walker, Marilyn D; Smets, Erik; Geml, József

2015-01-01

Arctic tundra regions have been responding to global warming with visible changes in plant community composition, including expansion of shrubs and declines in lichens and bryophytes. Even though it is well known that the majority of arctic plants are associated with their symbiotic fungi, how fungal community composition will be different with climate warming remains largely unknown. In this study, we addressed the effects of long-term (18 years) experimental warming on the community composition and taxonomic richness of soil ascomycetes in dry and moist tundra types. Using deep Ion Torrent sequencing, we quantified how OTU assemblage and richness of different orders of Ascomycota changed in response to summer warming. Experimental warming significantly altered ascomycete communities with stronger responses observed in the moist tundra compared with dry tundra. The proportion of several lichenized and moss-associated fungi decreased with warming, while the proportion of several plant and insect pathogens and saprotrophic species was higher in the warming treatment. The observed alterations in both taxonomic and ecological groups of ascomycetes are discussed in relation to previously reported warming-induced shifts in arctic plant communities, including decline in lichens and bryophytes and increase in coverage and biomass of shrubs. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Project CLIMPEAT - Influence of global warming and drought on the carbon sequestration and biodiversity of Sphagnum peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamentowicz, M.; Buttler, A.; Mitchell, E. A. D.; Chojnicki, B.; Słowińska, S.; Słowiński, M.

2012-04-01

Northern peatlands represent a globally significant pool of carbon and are subject to the highest rates of climate warming, and most of these peatlands are in continental settings. However, it is unclear if how fast peatlands respond to past and present changes in temperature and surface moisture in continental vs. oceanic climate settings. The CLIMPEAT project brings together scientists from Poland and Switzerland. Our goal is to assess the past and present vulnerability to climate change of Sphagnum peatland plant and microbial communities, peat organic matter transformations and carbon sequestration using a combination of field and mesocosm experiments simulating warming and water table changes and palaeoecological studies. Warming will be achieved using ITEX-type "Open-Top Chambers". The field studies are conducted in Poland, at the limit between oceanic and continental climates, and are part of a network of projects also including field experiments in the French Jura (sub-oceanic) and in Siberia (continental). We will calibrate the response of key biological (plants, testate amoebae) and geochemical (isotopic composition of organic compounds, organic matter changes) proxies to warming and water table changes and use these proxies to reconstruct climate changes during the last 1000 years.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

PubMed

Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

2016-11-30

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowther, T. W.; Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Rowe, C. W.; Wieder, W. R.; Carey, J. C.; Machmuller, M. B.; Snoek, B. L.; Fang, S.; Zhou, G.; Allison, S. D.; Blair, J. M.; Bridgham, S. D.; Burton, A. J.; Carrillo, Y.; Reich, P. B.; Clark, J. S.; Classen, A. T.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Elberling, B.; Emmett, B. A.; Estiarte, M.; Frey, S. D.; Guo, J.; Harte, J.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, B. R.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Larsen, K. S.; Laudon, H.; Lavallee, J. M.; Luo, Y.; Lupascu, M.; Ma, L. N.; Marhan, S.; Michelsen, A.; Mohan, J.; Niu, S.; Pendall, E.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Reinsch, S.; Reynolds, L. L.; Schmidt, I. K.; Sistla, S.; Sokol, N. W.; Templer, P. H.; Treseder, K. K.; Welker, J. M.; Bradford, M. A.

2016-12-01

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming

PubMed Central

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James S.; Oreskes, Naomi

2015-01-01

Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the “hiatus”. To examine whether the notion of a “hiatus” is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the “hiatus” in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the “hiatus” trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged “hiatus” periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the “pause” used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system “paused” for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K. PMID:26597713

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

PubMed

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2014-08-19

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

Geoscience Australia Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) Station Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruddick, R.; Twilley, B.

2016-03-01

This station formed part of the Australian Regional GPS Network (ARGN) and South Pacific Regional GPS Network (SPRGN), which is a network of continuous GPS stations operating within Australia and its Territories (including Antarctica) and the Pacific. These networks support a number of different science applications including maintenance of the Geospatial Reference Frame, both national and international, continental and tectonic plate motions, sea level rise, and global warming.

Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Stewart J.

1996-04-01

This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA coastal-cooling area might have expanded to include these sites, as the first three are adjacent to rural airport sites that showed cooling max-values due to increased marine influences. In addition, all urbanized sites with decreasing max-values would probably show even larger cooling rates if UHI effects could be removed. Significant societal impacts may result from this observed reverse-reaction to GHG-warming. Possible beneficial effects (especially during periods of UHI growth) include decreased maximum: O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels.

04/02/2013 Fact Sheet

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Fact sheet describing a proposal to amend the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), including technical amendments, amendments related to global warming potentials (GWPs), and confidentiality determinations for new or revised data elements.

Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

2017-12-01

Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although themore » weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.« less

Does air-sea coupling influence model projections of the effects of the Paris Agreement?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingaman, Nicholas; Suckling, Emma; Sutton, Rowan; Dong, Buwen

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement includes the long-term goal to hold global-mean temperature to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels", with the further stated aim of limiting the global-mean warming to 1.5°C, in the belief that this would "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change". However, it is not clear which risks and impacts would be avoided, or reduced, by achieving a 1.5°C warming instead of a 2.0°C warming. Initial efforts to quantify changes in risk have focused on analysis of existing CMIP5 simulations at levels of global-mean warming close to 1.5°C or 2.0°C, by taking averages over ≈20 year periods. This framework suffers from several drawbacks, however, including the effect of model internal multi-decadal variability, the influence of coupled-model systematic errors on regional circulation patterns, and the presence of a warming trend across the averaging period (i.e., the model is not in steady state). To address these issues, the "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts" (HAPPI) project is performing large ensembles of atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for present-day and 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios. While these experiments reduce the complications from a limited dataset and coupled-model systematic errors, the use of atmosphere-only models neglects feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean, which may have substantial effects on the representation of local and regional extremes, and hence on the response of these extremes to global-mean warming. We introduce a set of atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations that incorporate much of the HAPPI experiment design, yet retain a representation of air-sea feedbacks. We use the Met Office Unified Model Global Ocean Mixed Layer (MetUM-GOML) model, which comprises the MetUM atmospheric model coupled to many columns of the one-dimensional K Profile Parameterization mixed-layer ocean. Critically, the MetUM-GOML ocean mean state can be controlled by prescribed, seasonally varying corrections to temperature and salinity, which substantially reduce SST biases without damping variability. This allows the present-day MetUM-GOML experiment to have a ocean mean state very close to the observed climatology (global RMSE ≈ 0.25°C). We perform three 150-year experiments with MetUM-GOML for (a) present-day (1976-2005 climatology) and for future scenarios with global-mean temperatures (b) 1.5°C and (c) 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. For (b) and (c), we achieve these warming levels by increasing the CO2 concentrations in MetUM-GOML, as well as by adjusting the prescribed sea ice using change factors derived from a transient simulation with the fully coupled Met Office model. We analyse projected global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation in our MetUM-GOML simulations, focusing on seasonal means, multi-annual persistence of seasonal extremes (e.g., the probability of consecutive wet summers) and intra-seasonal extremes (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, floods). To identify the influence of air-sea coupling on these projections, we compare the MetUM-GOML simulations to 150-year atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed daily SSTs from the corresponding MetUM-GOML runs. This comparison demonstrates whether atmosphere-ocean feedbacks influence the projections of changes hydro-meteorological extremes in a warmer world, as well as whether these feedbacks affect the assessment of the impacts avoided by limiting global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C. Our results will inform the choice of model framework for, and hence the experiment design of, further efforts to characterise the response to a fixed global-mean temperature increase, as well as future climate-change attribution experiments.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1994-01-01

A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

Global atmospheric changes.

PubMed

Piver, W T

1991-12-01

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

Change We Can Fight Over: The Relationship between Arable Land Supply and Substate Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

environmental impact of global warming has spurred a parallel discussion among national security academics and policymakers about the security...consequences of climate change. Roughly speaking, there are two camps in this discussion -one that ominously predicts the potential for global warming to spark...future climate change, but the stark reality is that global warming is already upon us. Thus, policymakers need to know -both now and in the coming

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. August 2005 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

Frozen Areas Accelerates Siberia’s melting accelerates global warming . Scientists recently discovered that in the last three or four years the...melting, considered to be partially caused by global warming , becomes in its turn an accelerating factor of it. This finding follows a similar...Greenland Conference on Global Warming Environmental ministers and other officials from 23 countries around the world and the EU met on the edge of a

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.; Kim, K.-M.

2013-01-01

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Prediction-Market-Based Quantification of Climate Change Consensus and Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.

2012-12-01

Intrade is an online trading exchange that includes climate prediction markets. One such family of contracts can be described as "Global temperature anomaly for 2012 to be greater than x °C or more," where the figure x ranges in increments of .05 from .30 to 1.10 (relative to the 1951-1980 base period), based on data published by NASA GISS. Each market will settle at 10.00 if the published global temperature anomaly for 2012 is equal to or greater than x, and will otherwise settle at 0.00. Similar contracts will be available for 2013. Global warming hypotheses can be cast as probabilistic predictions for future temperatures. The first modern such climate prediction is that of Broecker (1975), whose temperatures are easily separable from his CO2 growth scenario—which he overestimated—by interpolating his table of temperature as a function of CO2 concentration and projecting the current trend into the near future. For the current concentration of 395 ppm, Broecker's equilibrium temperature anomaly prediction relative to pre-industrial is 1.05 °C, or about 0.75 °C relative to the GISS base period. His neglect of lag in response to the changes in radiative forcing was partially compensated by his low sensitivity of 2.4 °C, leading to a slight overestimate. Simple linear extrapolation of the current trend since 1975 yields an estimate of .65 ± .09 °C (net warming of .95 °C) for anthropogenic global warming with a normal distribution of random natural variability. To evaluate an extreme case, we can estimate the prediction Broecker would have made if he had used the Lindzen & Choi (2009) climate sensitivity of 0.5 °C. The net post-industrial warming by 2012 would have been 0.21 °C, for an expected change of -0.09 from the GISS base period. This is the temperature to which the Earth would be expected to revert if the observed warming since the 19th century was merely due to random natural variability that coincidentally mimicked Broecker's anthropogenic change prediction for the past 36 years. Assertions made outside the scientific literature can also be cast into predictions for 2012 temperatures, for example Carter's (2006) argument for a lack of warming since 1998 can be extrapolated to a 2012 value of 0.56 °C (net warming of .86 °C), and Easterbrook's (2010) claim of global cooling can be extrapolated to a 2012 value of .42 °C (net warming of .72 °C). All contracts in the current market ensembles are consistent with net warming from pre-industrial temperatures. They are also capable of distinguishing the level of acceptance of the various global warming hypotheses, even by their respective proponents. Moreover, they can be used as a market-based consensus estimate of future warming and climate variability that is weighted according to level of risk taken on by those providing the estimates, while filtering out the opinions of individuals unwilling to accept any financial risk associated with being wrong.

Will Fire Danger Be Reduced by Using Solar Radiation Management to Limit Global Warming to 1.5 °C Compared to 2.0 °C?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burton, C.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Williams, K.

2018-04-01

The commitment to limit warming to 1.5 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging. It has been proposed that reaching this target may require a number of actions, which could include some form of carbon removal or Solar Radiation Management in addition to strong emission reductions. Here we assess one theoretical solution using Solar Radiation Management to limit global mean warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures and use the McArthur fire danger index to evaluate the change in fire danger. The results show that globally fire danger is reduced in most areas when temperatures are limited to 1.5 °C compared to 2.0 °C. The number of days where fire danger is "high" or above is reduced by up to 30 days/year on average, although there are regional variations. In certain regions, fire danger is increased, experiencing 31 more days above "high" fire danger.

Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

PubMed

Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

2015-01-01

Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response.

PubMed

Lowe, Jason A; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-13

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Jason A.; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-01

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO2 and 150 GtCO2, respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

Preoperative warm-up the key to improved resident technique: a randomized study.

PubMed

Moran-Atkin, Erin; Abdalla, Gamal; Chen, Grace; Magnuson, Thomas H; Lidor, Anne O; Schweitzer, Michael A; Steele, Kimberley E

2015-05-01

The ACGME has required that a skills lab be incorporated into the surgical residency curriculum. While the value of warm-up is generally accepted in other areas requiring complex motor skills, there is little evidence to support the benefits of warm-up prior to performing surgery. We are conducting this study in an attempt to identify whether a warm-up period prior to operating impacts operative technique. All general surgery residents and MIS fellows were included in this IRB-approved randomized study. Participants were randomized to either warm-up or no warm-up groups. Participants randomized to the warm-up group completed a 10 min practice session in the simulation lab within 1 h of starting the case, using an FLS training box. At the conclusion of the operation, the participant was evaluated by the attending surgeon using the validated global rating scales of Reznick and Vassiliou. The attending surgeons were blinded to the use of pre-procedure warm-up. The results of the questionnaire were analyzed using student's t test with p < 0.05 for significance. Pilot data were obtained after completing 40 cases that were randomized to warm-up (19) or no warm-up (21). There was a statistically significant improvement in depth perception (p = 0.02), bimanual dexterity (p = 0.01), and efficiency of movements (p = 0.03) for those randomized to warm-up. There was statistical improvement when we preformed a composite scoring of the attending evaluations for each of the Reznick (p = 0.008) and the Vassiliou (p = 0.01) global rating scales. Preoperative warm-up significantly improves depth perception, bimanual dexterity, and efficiency of movements, as well as improvement in composite scores as judged by the attending surgeon. The lack of self-perceived improvement by the residents may be a reflection of the high standards and intense self-critique that is common among surgical trainees. We believe that our findings, while preliminary, reflect that surgical performance can be enhanced through structured warm-up activities.

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due to global warming, and many more extreme El Niño and La Niña events appear under the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, respectively. This study reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models.

Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die-back, warming subarctic peat rich wetlands (methane), thawing permafrost (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), and Arctic subsea floor methane.

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed

Resnik, David B; Vallero, Daniel A

2011-12-17

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming

Treesearch

Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...

Sensitivity of Arctic carbon in a changing climate

Treesearch

A. David McGuire; Henry P. Huntington; Simon Wilson

2009-01-01

The Arctic has been warming rapidly in the past few decades. A key question is how that warming will affect the cycling of carbon (C) in the Arctic system. At present, the Arctic is a global sink for C. If that changes and the Arctic becomes a carbon source, global climate warming may speed up.

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

The Environmental Impact of Cars: Children's Ideas and Reasoning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

1997-01-01

Reports on the results of a questionnaire administered to 14- and 15-year-old students (n=1637) in 25 British schools concerning their views on how car exhaust emissions affect global environmental problems. Children's beliefs discussed include the connection of car exhaust to global warming, the greenhouse effect, acid rain, and the ozone layer.…

Total environmental warming impact (TEWI) calculations for alternative automative air-conditioning systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.

1997-01-01

The Montreal Protocol phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has required manufacturers to develop refrigeration and air-conditioning systems that use refrigerants that can not damage stratospheric ozone. Most refrigeration industries have adapted their designs to use hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) or hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants; new automobile air- conditioning systems use HFC-134a. These industries are now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants on global warming. Automobile air-conditioning has three separate impacts on global warming; (1) the effects of refrigerant inadvertently released to the atmosphere from accidents, servicing, and leakage; (2) the efficiency of the cooling equipmentmore » (due to the emission of C0{sub 2} from burning fuel to power the system); and (3) the emission of C0{sub 2} from burning fuel to transport the system. The Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) is an index that should be used to compare the global warming effects of alternative air-conditioning systems because it includes these contributions from the refrigerant, cooling efficiency, and weight. This paper compares the TEWI of current air-conditioning systems using HFC-134a with that of transcritical vapor compression system using carbon dioxide and systems using flammable refrigerants with secondary heat transfer loops. Results are found to depend on both climate and projected efficiency of C0{sub 2}systems. Performance data on manufacturing prototype systems are needed to verify the potential reductions in TEWI. Extensive field testing is also required to determine the performance, reliability, and ``serviceability`` of each alternative to HFC-134a to establish whether the potential reduction of TEWI can be achieved in a viable consumer product.« less

Global warming in the public sphere.

PubMed

Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Maslin, Mark; Burgess, Jacquelin

2007-11-15

Although the science of global warming has been in place for several decades if not more, only in the last decade and a half has the issue moved clearly into the public sphere as a public policy issue and a political priority. To understand how and why this has occurred, it is essential to consider the history of the scientific theory of the greenhouse effect, the evidence that supports it and the mechanisms through which science interacts with lay publics and other elite actors, such as politicians, policymakers and business decision makers. This article reviews why and how climate change has moved from the bottom to the top of the international political agenda. It traces the scientific discovery of global warming, political and institutional developments to manage it as well as other socially mediated pathways for understanding and promoting global warming as an issue in the public sphere. The article also places this historical overview of global warming as a public issue into a conceptual framework for understanding relationships between society and nature with emphasis on the co-construction of knowledge.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread. PMID:28948096

Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

PubMed

Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

2006-04-01

Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from <1 to 43% of the endemic biota (average 11.6%), with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates, followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

Theodore E. Woodward Award: Global Warming and the Human Stomach: Microecology Follows Macroecology

PubMed Central

Blaser, Martin J

2005-01-01

Just as there have been 20th century changes in our “macroecology,” including global warming, there have been alterations in our “microecology,” involving the microbial populations that colonize the human body. Helicobacter pylori, an ancient inhabitant of the human stomach, has been disappearing over the course of the 20th century. As such, by comparing H. pylori+ and H. pylori− persons, the consequences of its colonization can be determined. The presence of H. pylori is associated with increased risk for development of gastric cancer and peptic ulceration, and with decreased risk for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and its sequelae, including esophageal adenocarcinoma. The disappearance of H. pylori (especially cag+ strains), possibly contributing to the risk of these esophageal diseases, may be an indicator for changing human microecology. PMID:16555606

76 FR 15249 - Deferral for CO2

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-21

... Agency FR Federal Register GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global warming potential HFC Hydrofluorocarbon ICR... year, weighted by the global warming potential (GWP) of the particular GHG pollutant, normalized to the... global GHG. Carbon dioxide emissions from a subset of bioenergy sources are reported as information items...

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

1990-01-01

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Hot Talk, Cold Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, Robert J.

One of the hottest topics in climate science is understanding and evaluating the impacts of possible global warming caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. In Hot Talk, Cold Science, S. Fred Singer does not accept global warming. Singer says in his preface, “The purpose of this book is to demonstrate that the evidence [for global warming] is neither settled, nor compelling, nor even convincing. On the contrary, scientists continue to discover new mechanisms for climate change and to put forth new theories to try to account for the fact that global temperature is not rising, even though greenhouse theory says it should”.

Global warming: a public health concern.

PubMed

Afzal, Brenda M

2007-05-31

Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.

New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

PubMed

Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

2017-06-20

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Understanding Recent Variability in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover -- Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

ARCTIC SEA ICE RESEARCH The effects of global warming on the Arctic Ocean finally gained the American public’s full attention in early 2007 with the...Arctic (Brass, 2002). The observed global warming trend is most pronounced in the higher latitudes due to an effect known as the snow/ice-albedo...due to increased melting thus exposing greater areas of lower albedo land and open water areas. The effect of global warming will result in a

Meeting the Energy Challenges of the 1990s. Experts Define the Key Policy Issues.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

Forecast of Low Emission Fuel Usage-Liquid 79 Fuels Figure 2.10: Forecast of Low Emission Fuel Usage- 81 Gaseous Fuels Figure 2.11: Global Warming From...environmental problems caused by acid rain, smog, and global warming , he said. According to Mr. Lovins, utilities as well as their customers benefit from...made in relation to these effects. The panel- ists addressed the links between global warming and the fossil fuels that now produce nearly 90 percent

Environmental Impact Statement: Construction and Operation of Titan IV/Centaur Launch Complex, Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

Form 7.10 Draft EIS Public Hearings Attendance and Speakers Lists 8.0 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS APPENDIX A: GLOBAL WARMING APPENDIX B: WHITE...expected to contribute significantly to global warming . Impacts to air quality from operations would be the same for the alternative sites. NOISE Noise...and Abbreviations List of Acronyms and Abbreviations used in the Final EM. ● Appendix A - Global Warming This appendix provides a brief discussion of

Canadian Unilateralism in the Arctic: Using Scenario Planning to Help Canada Achieve Its Strategic Goals in the North

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

IN THE NORTH, by Major Sonny T. Hatton, 78 pages. Climate change and global warming could open up the Arctic to unprecedented energy and resource...heating up, both literally and figuratively. Climate change and global warming are melting the Polar ice cap in the North at an unprecedented rate...grow for Arctic nations as access increases due to global warming .35 Increased access and development in the Arctic will continue to encourage the

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Greenhouse warming and the tropical water budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Betts, Alan K.

1990-01-01

The present work takes issue with some of the theses of Lindzen's (1990) work on global warming, arguing in particular that Lindzen's work is hampered by the use of oversimplified models. Lindzen then presents a detailed reply to these arguments, emphasizing the fundamental importance of the upper tropospheric water-vapor budget to the question of global warming.

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

A global experiment suggests climate warming will not accelerate litter decomposition in streams but might reduce carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Boyero, Luz; Pearson, Richard G; Gessner, Mark O; Barmuta, Leon A; Ferreira, Verónica; Graça, Manuel A S; Dudgeon, David; Boulton, Andrew J; Callisto, Marcos; Chauvet, Eric; Helson, Julie E; Bruder, Andreas; Albariño, Ricardo J; Yule, Catherine M; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Davies, Judy N; Figueroa, Ricardo; Flecker, Alexander S; Ramírez, Alonso; Death, Russell G; Iwata, Tomoya; Mathooko, Jude M; Mathuriau, Catherine; Gonçalves, José F; Moretti, Marcelo S; Jinggut, Tajang; Lamothe, Sylvain; M'Erimba, Charles; Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Schindler, Markus H; Castela, José; Buria, Leonardo M; Cornejo, Aydeé; Villanueva, Verónica D; West, Derek C

2011-03-01

The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.;

Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shakun, Jeremy; Smith, Pete; Lacis, Andrew; Russell, Gary; Ruedy, Reto

2017-07-01

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6-9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require negative emissions, i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89-535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

The Climate Impact of the Household Sector in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aunan, K.; Berntsen, T. K.; Rypdal, K.; Streets, D. G.; Woo, J.; Smith, K. R.

2005-05-01

If it ever enters into force the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is likely to be small. The USA and Australia have not ratified the Protocol and the initial emission reduction target was only 5.2 per cent. There is an increasing call for post-Kyoto climate treaties, whether they be global or regional, to widen the scope to take into account the impacts that air pollutants as tropospheric ozone and aerosols may have on climate. There are two main reasons for this. First and foremost, there is increasing evidence that these air pollutants play an important role in the climate system. Secondly, it is suggested that including radiative forcing components that also have adverse impacts on human health and environment may increase participation, which will be a prerequisite for future treaties to be effective. China's approval of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 suggests that it is considering a more active role in the global effort to mitigate global warming. Given its many other priorities, however, China needs to understand what national policies would reduce its contribution to global warming in the most cost-efficient way and at the same time contribute the most to economic and social development in the country. The objective of the present study is to contribute knowledge that is helpful to Chinese policy makers dealing with this question. We do this by addressing emissions that according to the World Health Organisation are among the leading health risks to people in the developing world, China included, i.e. smoke from solid fuels burned in peoples' homes. In China, about 72 per cent of the population lives in rural or peri-urban areas where use of simple, low-efficiency household stoves for coal or biomass is common. Even though the residential sector stands for no more than 11 per cent of the primary energy consumption (biomass included), the sector contributes to, e.g., more than 70 per cent of Chinese emissions of black carbon, about a third of its methane emissions, and more than 40 per cent of the nmVOC emissions (which contributes to global warming through tropospheric ozone production). Thus, policies addressing these sources may be important in the context of global warming in addition to substantially improving living conditions for many people. The question we ask in the present paper is how important are they? Two global models are applied to estimate the climate impact on a global scale of emissions from the Chinese residential sector. To estimate the impact on the development of the global climate in terms of radiative forcing and global mean temperature of a possible reduction in these emissions we use a simple climate model. A global, three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere is used to model the changes in concentration of air pollutants that have a radiative forcing. Estimates for Chinese household sector emissions are taken from previous work on emission inventories in Asia.

Rate of warming affects temperature sensitivity of anaerobic peat decomposition and greenhouse gas production.

PubMed

Sihi, Debjani; Inglett, Patrick W; Gerber, Stefan; Inglett, Kanika S

2018-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic carbon mineralization in wetlands remains poorly represented in most climate models and is especially unconstrained for warmer subtropical and tropical systems which account for a large proportion of global methane emissions. Several studies of experimental warming have documented thermal acclimation of soil respiration involving adjustments in microbial physiology or carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an initial decline in CUE with warming followed by a partial recovery in CUE at a later stage. The variable CUE implies that the rate of warming may impact microbial acclimation and the rate of carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) production. Here, we assessed the effects of warming rate on the decomposition of subtropical peats, by applying either a large single-step (10°C within a day) or a slow ramping (0.1°C/day for 100 days) temperature increase. The extent of thermal acclimation was tested by monitoring CO 2 and CH 4 production, CUE, and microbial biomass. Total gaseous C loss, CUE, and MBC were greater in the slow (ramp) warming treatment. However, greater values of CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios lead to a greater global warming potential in the fast (step) warming treatment. The effect of gradual warming on decomposition was more pronounced in recalcitrant and nutrient-limited soils. Stable carbon isotopes of CH 4 and CO 2 further indicated the possibility of different carbon processing pathways under the contrasting warming rates. Different responses in fast vs. slow warming treatment combined with different endpoints may indicate alternate pathways with long-term consequences. Incorporations of experimental results into organic matter decomposition models suggest that parameter uncertainties in CUE and CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios have a larger impact on long-term soil organic carbon and global warming potential than uncertainty in model structure, and shows that particular rates of warming are central to understand the response of wetland soils to global climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Is the World in a State of Climate Change Planetary Emergency?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2013-04-01

Leading climate change experts have made public statements that the world is beyond dangerous interference with the climate system, committed to a warming of 3-5°C, facing a risk of global climate catastrophe, and in a state of planetary emergency, but these conclusions are not informing climate change policy. The evidence for these statements is examined and presented in this paper. The main parameters considered are world food security and carbon feedback "runaway" or rapid global warming. 2012 was a record year for Arctic albedo loss, which amplifies Arctic warming and drives Arctic methane feedback emissions. Since 2007, atmospheric methane is experiencing a renewed, sustained increase due to feedback emissions. All potentially large positive Arctic feedbacks are operant. These include albedo loss from disappearing snow and summer sea ice; methane released from peatlands, thawing permafrost and sea floor methane hydrates; and nitrous oxide from cryoperturbed permafrost. Increasing extreme weather events have caused regional crop productivity losses on many continents since 2000. The loss of Arctic albedo might be driving extreme heat and drought in the northern hemisphere. Today the formal national pledges for emissions reductions filed with the UN, combined, commit humanity to a warming of 4.4°C (Climate Interactive) by 2100, which is more than 8°C eventually after 2100, and there are no initiatives to change this. The International Energy Agency warns that the current global economy is on track for a warming of 6°C by 2100. A simple yet novel summation approach of all unavoidable sources of warming estimates the committed unavoidable warming to be 3°C by 2100. What are the implications of these future commitments for world food security and the risk of runaway climate change? The paper considers how these commitments and the policy-relevant research findings can inform policy making with respect to an appropriate science-based mitigation response.

Experimental evidence of the synergistic effects of warming and invasive algae on a temperate reef-builder coral.

PubMed

Kersting, Diego K; Cebrian, Emma; Casado, Clara; Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina

2015-12-22

In the current global climate change scenario, stressors overlap in space and time, and knowledge on the effects of their interaction is highly needed to understand and predict the response and resilience of organisms. Corals, among many other benthic organisms, are affected by an increasing number of global change-related stressors including warming and invasive species. In this study, the cumulative effects between warming and invasive algae were experimentally assessed on the temperate reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa. We first investigated the potential local adaptation to thermal stress in two distant populations subjected to contrasting thermal and necrosis histories. No significant differences were found between populations. Colonies from both populations suffered no necrosis after long-term exposure to temperatures up to 29 °C. Second, we tested the effects of the interaction of both warming and the presence of invasive algae. The combined exposure triggered critical synergistic effects on photosynthetic efficiency and tissue necrosis. At the end of the experiment, over 90% of the colonies subjected to warming and invasive algae showed signs of necrosis. The results are of particular concern when considering the predicted increase of extreme climatic events and the spread of invasive species in the Mediterranean and other seas in the future.

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

How much CO2 can we still emit while limiting global warming to well below 2 °C?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, S.

2017-12-01

In December 2015, the Paris Agreement signed by 195 nations agreed to limit global warming "to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C." Since the amount of global warming is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, such a warming limit corresponds to a remaining "CO2 budget" - a total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted world-wide. I will discuss current estimates of the size of this CO2 budget and what this means for the emissions trajectories compatible with the Paris Agreement.

Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, John

2005-06-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

The impact of global warming on Mount Everest.

PubMed

Moore, G W K; Semple, John L

2009-01-01

Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain, over time, easier to climb.

Reports to the Nation on our changing planet. Winter 1991 No. 1: The climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

This pamphlet is a semi-annual report for the period April 1992 through September 1992 dealing with the study of climatology. This introductory pamphlet treats in the simplest of terms such topics as climate change, the greenhouse effect, the global heat engine, hydrology, oceanography, computers and climatology, ice ages, and global warming. Informative charts are included.

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts. PMID:23502911

Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

PubMed Central

De Saedeleer, Bernard

2016-01-01

Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

PubMed

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

PubMed

De Saedeleer, Bernard

2016-01-27

Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

Environmental comparison of alternative treatments for sewage sludge: An Italian case study.

PubMed

Lombardi, Lidia; Nocita, Cristina; Bettazzi, Elena; Fibbi, Donatella; Carnevale, Ennio

2017-11-01

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied to compare different alternatives for sewage sludge treatment: such as land spreading, composting, incineration, landfill and wet oxidation. The LCA system boundaries include mechanical dewatering, the alternative treatment, transport, and final disposal/recovery of residues. Cases of recovered materials produced as outputs from the systems, were resolved by expanding the system boundaries to include avoided primary productions. The impact assessment was calculated using the CML-IA baseline method. Results showed that the incineration of sewage sludge with electricity production and solid residues recovery collects the lowest impact indicator values in the categories human toxicity, fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity, acidification and eutrophication, while it has the highest values for the categories global warming and ozone layer depletion. Land spreading has the lowest values for the categories abiotic depletion, fossil fuel depletion, global warming, ozone layer depletion and photochemical oxidation, while it collects the highest values for terrestrial ecotoxicity and eutrophication. Wet oxidation has just one of the best indicators (terrestrial ecotoxicity) and three of the worst ones (abiotic depletion, human toxicity and fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity). Composting process shows intermediate results. Landfill has the worst performances in global warming, photochemical oxidation and acidification. Results indicate that if the aim is to reduce the effect of the common practice of sludge land spreading on human and ecosystem toxicity, on acidification and on eutrophication, incineration with energy recovery would clearly improve the environmental performance of those indicators, but an increase in resource depletion and global warming is unavoidable. However, these conclusions are strictly linked to the effective recovery of solid residues from incineration, as the results are shown to be very sensitive with respect to this assumption. Similarly, the quality of the wet oxidation process residues plays an important role in defining the impact of this treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm

PubMed Central

Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd.; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya’u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I.; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

2015-01-01

Background Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. Methods/Findings The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. Conclusion An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks—hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper. PMID:26305483

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

PubMed

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide during the transition from winter carbon source to spring carbon sink in a temperate urban lawn.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoping; Wang, Xiaoke; Tong, Lei; Zhang, Hongxing; Lu, Fei; Zheng, Feixiang; Hou, Peiqiang; Song, Wenzhi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

The significant warming in urban environment caused by the combined effects of global warming and heat island has stimulated widely development of urban vegetations. However, it is less known of the climate feedback of urban lawn in warmed environment. Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide during the transition period from winter to spring was investigated in a temperate urban lawn in Beijing, China. The NEE (negative for uptake) under soil warming treatment (temperature was about 5 degrees C higher than the ambient treatment as a control) was -0.71 micromol/(m2 x sec), the ecosytem was a CO2 sink under soil warming treatment, the lawn ecosystem under the control was a CO2 source (0.13 micromol/(m2 x sec)), indicating that the lawn ecosystem would provide a negative feedback to global warming. There was no significant effect of soil warming on nocturnal NEE (i.e., ecosystem respiration), although the soil temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiration under soil warming treatment was 3.86, much lower than that in the control (7.03). The CO2 uptake was significantly increased by soil warming treatment that was attributed to about 100% increase of alpha (apparent quantum yield) and Amax (maximum rate of photosynthesis). Our results indicated that the response of photosynthesis in urban lawn is much more sensitive to global warming than respiration in the transition period.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

PubMed

McElwain, Jennifer C

2018-04-29

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

2017-12-01

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Global temperature monitoring from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, R. W.

1994-01-01

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Warming Climate and Changing Societies - a Challenge or an Opportunity for Reindeer Herding?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käyhkö, J.; Horstkotte, T.; Kivinen, S.; Vehmas, J.; Oksanen, L.; Forbes, B. C.; Johansen, B.; Jepsen, J. U.; Markkola, A.; Pulliainen, J.; Olofsson, J.; Oksanen, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Korpimäki, E.; Menard, C.; Ericson, L.

2015-12-01

The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean, influencing dramatically the northern ecosystems. Simultaneously, our societies transform towards urbanized, highly educated, service-based culture, where a decreasing population will gain its livelihood from primary production. We study various ecosystem interactions in a changing climate and integrate these with reindeer husbandry and the indigenous Sámi culture dependent on it1. Potential climate impacts include the transformation of arctic-alpine tundra to dense scrubland with conceivable consequences to reindeer husbandry, but also global warming due to decreasing albedo. The social-ecological system (SES) of reindeer husbandry includes administrative and ecological processes that do not always correspond (Figure 1). Consequently, management priorities and administration may conflict with local social and ecological processes, bringing about risks of environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and defeat of traditional livelihoods. We hypothesize the plausibility to support the indigenous reindeer herding livelihood against rapid external changes by utilizing the migratory reindeer grazing system of the Sámi as a management tool for sustaining the high-albedo tundra and mitigating global warming. Our first-of-a-kind satellite-based high resolution vegetation map covering Northern Fennoscandia allows detailed management plans. Our ecological research demonstrates the important role of herbivory on arctic vegetation communities. Interactive workshops with reindeer herders offer indigenous knowledge of state and changes of the ecosystems, and reflect the threats and expectations of the herders. We are currently building models of the complex social-ecological system of Northern Fennoscandia and will report the first findings of the exercise. 1 www.ncoetundra.utu.fi Figure 1. The scales of administrative and ecological processes do not always coincide. This may bring about challenges in managing the social-ecological systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holdridge, D. J.

Global Warming and Methane--Global warming, an increase in Earth's near-surface temperature, is believed to result from the buildup of what scientists refer to as ''greenhouse gases.'' These gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluoro-carbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Greenhouse gases can absorb outgoing infrared (heat) radiation and re-emit it back to Earth, warming the surface. Thus, these gases act like the glass of a greenhouse enclosure, trapping infrared radiation inside and warming the space. One of the more important greenhouse gases is the naturally occurring hydrocarbon methane. Methane, a primary component of natural gas, is themore » second most important contributor to the greenhouse effect (after carbon dioxide). Natural sources of methane include wetlands, fossil sources, termites, oceans, fresh-waters, and non-wetland soils. Methane is also produced by human-related (or anthropogenic) activities such as fossil fuel production, coal mining, rice cultivation, biomass burning, water treatment facilities, waste management operations and landfills, and domesticated livestock operations (Figure 1). These anthropogenic activities account for approximately 70% of the methane emissions to the atmosphere. Methane is removed naturally from the atmosphere in three ways. These methods, commonly referred to as sinks, are oxidation by chemical reaction with tropospheric hydroxyl ion, oxidation within the stratosphere, and microbial uptake by soils. In spite of their important role in removing excess methane from the atmosphere, the sinks cannot keep up with global methane production. Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 145% since 1800. Increases in atmospheric methane roughly parallel world population growth, pointing to anthropogenic sources as the cause (Figure 2). Increases in the methane concentration reduce Earth's natural cooling efficiency by trapping more of the outgoing terrestrial infrared radiation, increasing the near-surface temperature.« less

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepori, Fabio; Roberts, James J.

2015-01-01

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Dinezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-12-19

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population 1-3 . Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K -1 . Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K -1 ), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K -1 , respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K -1 ). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K -1 ) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K -1 ) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2222 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2372 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1772 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.773 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.822 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2372 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2122 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

Helping Kids Handle Worry

MedlinePlus

... or at school. Things like terrorism, war, pollution, global warming, endangered animals, and natural disasters can become a ... worry about big stuff — like terrorism, war, or global warming — that they hear about at school or on ...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

PROCESS DESIGN FOR ENVIRONMENT: A MULTI-OBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK UNDER UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

Designing chemical processes for environment requires consideration of several indexes of environmental impact including ozone depletion and global warming potentials, human and aquatic toxicity, and photochemical oxidation, and acid rain potentials. Current methodologies like t...

ACEEE's green book: The environmental guide to cars and trucks, Model year 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeCicco, J.; Kliesch, J.; Thomas, M.

2000-07-01

This pathbreaking guide ranks cars and trucks according to environmental friendliness. Buyers can compare cars, vans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles by their environmental impacts, including air pollution, global warming, and fuel efficiency. Inside the guide: how to buy the cleanest and most efficient vehicle that meets your needs; Green Scores for all 2000 makes and models, listed by class--compact, mid-size, and large cars, vans, pickups, and sport utilities; Best of 2000 section featuring the greenest models in each class; Green by Design chapter highlighting advanced technologies and what makes some vehicles greener than others; listings for electric and othermore » alternative fuel vehicles in addition to gasoline and diesel vehicles; tips on keeping your vehicle running cleanly and efficiently; and the environmental impacts of vehicles, including global warming and the health effects of vehicle pollution.« less

Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

2013-12-01

The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and is supported, among others, by C.B. Early Career Research Program award.

Forestry and global warming: the physical and policy linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trexler, M. C.

1992-03-01

The potential for biotically mitigating global warming is receiving a great deal of policy and technical attention around the world. Elements of the political community are drawn to the notion that land-use patterns can be modified more easily than energy consumption patterns, and some modelers suggest that the potential for storing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is very large. Most work to date, however, uses only physical criteria in estimating how much land might be available for reforestation. Accounting for social and economic constraints is much more difficult, resulting in daunting uncertainty about what could actually be accomplished. Furthermore, our relative ignorance of the functioning of the global carbon cycle makes attempting to manipulate it for human purposes questionable at best. Nevertheless, there are many reasons besides global warming to pursue a radical restructuring of land-use patterns around the world. Such a restructuring should be undertaken in conjunction with many other measures to slow global warming, most immediately in the energy sector.

European freshwater vulnerability under high rates of global warming and plausible socio-economic narratives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Recent developments could postpone climate actions in the frame of the global climate deal of the Paris Agreement, making higher-end global warming increasingly plausible. Although not clear in the COP21 water security is fundamental to achieving low-carbon ambitions, thus climate and water policies are closely related. The projection of the relationship between global warming, water availability and water stress through their complex interactions among different sectors, along with the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation actions, is a rather challenging task under the prism of climate change. Here we try to develop and apply a simple, transparent conceptual framework describing European vulnerability to hydrological drought of current hydro-climatic and socioeconomic status as well as projected vulnerability at specific levels of global warming (1.5oC, 2oC and 4oC) following highly rates of climatic change (RCP8.5) and considering different levels of adaptation associated to specific socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5).

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.

PubMed

Bravo, Iván; Díaz-de-Mera, Yolanda; Aranda, Alfonso; Moreno, Elena; Nutt, David R; Marston, George

2011-10-14

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Atmospheric/oceanic influence on climate in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Mark S. Riedel

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of research, scientists still disagree about the existence, magnitude, duration and potential causes of global warming and climate change. For example, only recently have we recognized that, given historical global climate patterns, much of the global warming trend we are experiencing appears to be natural. We analyzed long-term climatologic records...

Genetic strategies for reforestation in the face of global climate change

Treesearch

F. Thomas Ledig; J.H. Kitzmiller

1992-01-01

If global warming materializes as projected, natural or artificial regeneration of forests with local seed sources will become increasingly difficult. However, global warming is far from a certainty and predictions of its magnitude and timing vary at least twofold, In the face of such uncertainty, reforestation strategies should emphasize conservation, diversification...

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

A real-time Global Warming Index.

PubMed

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. January 2006 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

8 10.3.2 Global Warming Threshold Might Have Been Crossed…………………………..8 10.3.3 Several Small Asia/Pacific Countries at Risk because of Rising Sea... Global Warming Threshold Might Have Been Crossed In the preamble to his upcoming book, ’The Revenge of Gaia’, James Lovelock, who formulated the Gaia...intense actions are needed to curb global warming . Scientists studying the Arctic are also noting that the polar region is close to or on the edge of the

Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2016-04-01

Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

Shift in tuna catches due to ocean warming.

PubMed

Monllor-Hurtado, Alberto; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Sanchez-Lizaso, José Luis

2017-01-01

Ocean warming is already affecting global fisheries with an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes and lower catches of tropical and subtropical species in the tropics. Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature, for this reason and their worldwide distribution, their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries. This study shows the shift of tuna catches in subtropical latitudes on a global scale. From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean. This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming. Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing. Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase. Thus, at least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.

Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

2009-01-01

We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-05-01

The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Global Soil Respiration: Interaction with Environmental Variables and Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, J.; Steele, M.

2016-12-01

Background, methods, objectivesTerrestrial ecosystems take up around 1.7 Pg C per year; however, the role of terrestrial ecosystems as a carbon sink may change to carbon source by 2050, as a result of positive feedback of soil respiration response to global warming. Nevertheless, limited evidence shows that soil carbon is decreasing and the role of terrestrial ecosystems is changing under warming. One possibility is the positive feedback may slow due to the acclimation of soil respiration as a result of decreasing temperature sensitivity (Q10) with warming. To verify and quantify the uncertainty in soil carbon cycling and feedbacks to climate change, we assembled soil respiration observations from 1961 to 2014 from 724 publications into a monthly global soil respiration database (MSRDB), which included 13482 soil respiration measurements together with 38 other ancillary measurements from 538 sites. Using this database we examined macroscale variation in the relationship between soil respiration and air temperature, precipitation, leaf area index and soil properties. We also quantified global soil respiration, the sources of uncertainty, and its feedback to warming based on climate region-oriented models with variant Q10function. Results and ConclusionsOur results showed substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between soil respiration and environmental factors across different climate regions. For example, soil respiration was strongly related to vegetation (via leaf area index) in colder regions, but not in tropical region. Only in tropical and arid regions did soil properties explain any variation in soil respiration. Global annual mean soil respiration from 1961 to 2014 was estimated to be 72.41 Pg C yr-1 based on monthly global soil respiration database, 25 Pg lower than estimated based on yearly soil respiration database. By using the variable Q10 models, we estimated that global soil respiration increased at a rate of 0.03 Pg C yr-1 from 1961 to 2014, smaller than previous studies ( 0.1 Pg C yr-1). The substantial variations in these relationships suggest that regional scales is important for understanding and prediction of global carbon cycling and how it response to climate change.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Comparison of AIRS Version-6 OLR Climatologies and Anomaly Time Series with Those of CERES and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2016-01-01

RCs of AIRS and MERRA-2 500 mb specific humidity agree very well in terms of spatial patterns, but MERRA-2 ARCs are larger in magnitude and show a spurious moistening globally and over Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 fractional cloud cover ARCs agree less well with each other. MERRA-2 shows a spurious global mean increase in cloud cover that is not found in AIRS, including a large spurious cloud increase in Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 ARCs of surface skin and surface air temperatures are all similar to each other in patterns. AIRS shows a small global warming over the 13 year period, while MERRA-2 shows a small global cooling. This difference results primarily from spurious MERRA-2 temperature trends at high latitudes and over Central Africa. These differences all contribute to the spurious negative global MERRA-2 OLR trend. AIRS Version-6 confirms that 2015 is the warmest year on record and that the Earth's surface is continuing to warm.

Accelerating Net Terrestrial Carbon Uptake During the Warming Hiatus Due to Reduced Respiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballantyne, Ashley; Smith, William; Anderegg, William; Kauppi, Pekka; Sarmiento, Jorge; Tans, Pieter; Shevliakova, Elena; Pan, Yude; Poulter, Benjamin; Anav, Alessandro;

Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, Ashley; Smith, William; Anderegg, William; Kauppi, Pekka; Sarmiento, Jorge; Tans, Pieter; Shevliakova, Elena; Pan, Yude; Poulter, Benjamin; Anav, Alessandro; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Houghton, Richard; Running, Steven

2017-01-01

The recent `warming hiatus' presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from -0.007 +/- 0.065 PgC yr-2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119 +/- 0.071 PgC yr-2 over the warming hiatus (1998-2012). This acceleration in NBP is not due to increased primary productivity, but rather reduced respiration that is correlated (r = 0.58 P = 0.0007) and sensitive (γ = 4.05 to 9.40 PgC yr-1 per °C) to land temperatures. Global land models do not fully capture this apparent reduced respiration over the warming hiatus; however, an empirical model including soil temperature and moisture observations better captures the reduced respiration.

Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2006-12-01

So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary benefits, but it does require leadership. Practical difficulties in communicating this story will be illustrated with some personal experiences.

Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

PubMed

Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

2013-04-06

Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

40 CFR 52.1073 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (h)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1522 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4...

40 CFR 52.572 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

Teaching cases on transportation and global warming.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

This project developed a series of three teaching cases that explore the implications of global : warming for transportation policy in the United States. The cases are intended to be used in : graduate and undergraduate courses on transportation poli...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1073 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (h)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

2018-07-01

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ``business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; ...

2018-02-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Soil warming and CO2 enrichment induce biomass shifts in alpine tree line vegetation.

PubMed

Dawes, Melissa A; Philipson, Christopher D; Fonti, Patrick; Bebi, Peter; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Hagedorn, Frank; Rixen, Christian

2015-05-01

Responses of alpine tree line ecosystems to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming are poorly understood. We used an experiment at the Swiss tree line to investigate changes in vegetation biomass after 9 years of free air CO2 enrichment (+200 ppm; 2001-2009) and 6 years of soil warming (+4 °C; 2007-2012). The study contained two key tree line species, Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata, both approximately 40 years old, growing in heath vegetation dominated by dwarf shrubs. In 2012, we harvested and measured biomass of all trees (including root systems), above-ground understorey vegetation and fine roots. Overall, soil warming had clearer effects on plant biomass than CO2 enrichment, and there were no interactive effects between treatments. Total plant biomass increased in warmed plots containing Pinus but not in those with Larix. This response was driven by changes in tree mass (+50%), which contributed an average of 84% (5.7 kg m(-2) ) of total plant mass. Pinus coarse root mass was especially enhanced by warming (+100%), yielding an increased root mass fraction. Elevated CO2 led to an increased relative growth rate of Larix stem basal area but no change in the final biomass of either tree species. Total understorey above-ground mass was not altered by soil warming or elevated CO2 . However, Vaccinium myrtillus mass increased with both treatments, graminoid mass declined with warming, and forb and nonvascular plant (moss and lichen) mass decreased with both treatments. Fine roots showed a substantial reduction under soil warming (-40% for all roots <2 mm in diameter at 0-20 cm soil depth) but no change with CO2 enrichment. Our findings suggest that enhanced overall productivity and shifts in biomass allocation will occur at the tree line, particularly with global warming. However, individual species and functional groups will respond differently to these environmental changes, with consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perceptions of Global Warming Among the Poorest Counties in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Kearney, Gregory D; Bell, Ronny A

2018-03-07

The geographic position and high level of poverty in the southeastern United States are significant risk factors that contribute to the region's high vulnerability to climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate beliefs and perceptions of global warming among those living in poverty in the poorest counties in the southeastern United States. Results from this project may be used to support public health efforts to increase climate-related messaging to vulnerable and underserved communities. This was an ecological study that analyzed public opinion poll estimates from previously gathered national level survey data (2016). Responses to 5 questions related to beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions of global warming were evaluated. Counties below the national average poverty level (13.5%) were identified among 11 southeastern US states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia). Student t tests were used to compare public perceptions of global warming among the poorest urban and rural counties with national-level public opinion estimates. Overall, counties below the national poverty level in the southeastern US were significantly less likely to believe that global warming was happening compared with national-level estimates. The poorest rural counties were less likely to believe that global warming was happening than the poorest urban counties. Health care providers and public health leaders at regional and local levels are in ideal positions to raise awareness and advocate the health implications of climate change to decision makers for the benefit of helping underserved communities mitigate and adequately adapt to climate-related threats.

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, René; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

2018-06-01

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models’ agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.

Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time. PMID:22145582

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

Treesearch

H. Galbraith; R. Jones; R. Park; J. Clough; S. Herrod-Julius; B. Harrington; G. Page

2005-01-01

Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration of current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for foraging habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the...

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok K.; Sridhar, Banavar; Grabbe, Shon; Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

40 CFR 52.986 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2122 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming... emit 100,000 tpy CO2e, when such stationary source undertakes a physical change or change in the method...

40 CFR 52.2122 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming... emit 100,000 tpy CO2e, when such stationary source undertakes a physical change or change in the method...

40 CFR 52.2122 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming... emit 100,000 tpy CO2e, when such stationary source undertakes a physical change or change in the method...

40 CFR 52.986 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.986 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.986 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4)(ii)(A) of...

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boden, Tom; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Marland, Gregg; Raupach, Michael R.; Wilson, Charlie

2013-01-01

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

Teachers and Students Knowledge about Global Warming: A Study in Smoke Disaster Area of Indonesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosidin, Undang; Suyatna, Agus

2017-01-01

The average temperature on the Earth's surface has globally increased. This issue was generally caused by the increasing of greenhouse gases concentrations due to human activities. Therefore, the knowledge about global warming becomes major topics for students and educators. This research aimed to investigate how the teachers and students…

Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

Treesearch

Jay R. Malcolm; Canran Liu; Ronald P. Neilson; Lara Hansen; Lee Hannah

2006-01-01

Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-C02 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of...

Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however,...

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project following the Paris Agreement, 2015, to aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Potential effects on health of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haines, A.; Parry, M.

1993-12-01

Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important tomore » monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.« less

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE PAGES

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; ...

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-08-01

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Could cirrus clouds have warmed early Mars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kasting, James F.

2017-01-01

The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates that the climate at 3.8 Ga was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the mechanism for producing this warming continues to be debated. One hypothesis is that Mars could have been kept warm by global cirrus cloud decks in a CO2sbnd H2O atmosphere containing at least 0.25 bar of CO2 (Urata and Toon, 2013). Initial warming from some other process, e.g., impacts, would be required to make this model work. Those results were generated using the CAM 3-D global climate model. Here, we use a single-column radioactive-convective climate model to further investigate the cirrus cloud warming hypothesis. Our calculations indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have produced global mean surface temperatures above freezing, but only if cirrus cloud cover approaches ∼75 - 100% and if other cloud properties (e.g., height, optical depth, particle size) are chosen favorably. However, at more realistic cirrus cloud fractions, or if cloud parameters are not optimal, cirrus clouds do not provide the necessary warming, suggesting that other greenhouse mechanisms are needed.

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions

PubMed Central

Beaumont, Linda J.; Pitman, Andrew; Perkins, Sarah; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Thuiller, Wilfried

2011-01-01

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100. PMID:21262825

75 FR 70657 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Kansas: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-18

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric... CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1...

76 FR 752 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Connecticut: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-06

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric... CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1...

75 FR 68285 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Alabama: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric... CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1...

75 FR 68279 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; North Carolina: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric..., meaning each ton of CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year...

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping capacity and atmospheric... CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1...

76 FR 2070 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Virginia; Prevention of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-12

... capacities. The concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare the heat- trapping... GWP of 21, meaning each ton of CH 4 emissions would have 21 times as much impact on global warming...

75 FR 68265 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Tennessee: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

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.... Different GHGs have different heat-trapping capacities. The concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) was... as much impact on global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1 ton of CO 2 emissions. Thus, on...

75 FR 68259 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Mississippi: Prevention of Significant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... different heat-trapping capacities. The concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed to compare... global warming over a 100-year time horizon as 1 ton of CO 2 emissions. Thus, on the basis of heat...

Global Warming?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.

1994-01-01

Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. December 2005 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

6 7.1 Climate Change……………..………………………………………………………..6 7.1.1 Melting Permafrost Releases Methane Twenty Times More Dangerous for Global Warming than...Dangerous for Global Warming than CO2 Permafrost covers much of Russia, Canada, and Alaska. As it melts, trapped methane gas is released, which is...period of time; however, the phenomenon has not been properly factored into global warming forecasts. With less snow and ice, solar radiation that used

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Harrington, Luke J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1.5°C target to be adopted, but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent poverty growth would be required.

Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killingmore » frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.« less

Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

2017-02-01

The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

Accelerated warming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world's large marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Sherman, Kenneth; Belkin, Igor M; Friedland, Kevin D; O'Reilly, John; Hyde, Kimberly

2009-06-01

Information on the effects of global climate change on trends in global fisheries biomass yields has been limited in spatial and temporal scale. Results are presented of a global study of the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the last 25 years on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that annually produce 80% of the world's marine fisheries catches. Warming trends were observed in 61 LMEs around the globe. In 18 of the LMEs, rates of SST warming were two to four times faster during the past 25 years than the globally averaged rates of SST warming reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Effects of warming on fisheries biomass yields were greatest in the fast-warming northern Northeast Atlantic LMEs, where increasing trends in fisheries biomass yields were related to zooplankton biomass increases. In contrast, fisheries biomass yields of LMEs in the fast-warming, more southerly reaches of the Northeast Atlantic were declining in response to decreases in zooplankton abundance. The LMEs around the margins of the Indian Ocean, where SSTs were among the world's slowest warming, revealed a consistent pattern of fisheries biomass increases during the past 25 years, driven principally by human need for food security from fisheries resources. As a precautionary approach toward more sustainable fisheries utilization, management measures to limit the total allowable catch through a cap-and-sustain approach are suggested for the developing nations recently fishing heavily on resources of the Agulhas Current, Somali Current, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal LMEs.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

PubMed

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-11-29

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

PubMed Central

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609

Seasonality of soil moisture mediates responses of ecosystem phenology to elevated CO2 and warming in a semi-arid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Concurrent changes in temperature, atmospheric CO2, and precipitation regimes are altering ecosystems globally, and may be especially important in water-limited ecosystems. Such ecosystems include the semi-arid grasslands of western North America which provide critical ecosystem services, including ...

Restoring and managing cold desert shrublands for climate change mitigation (Chapter 2)

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer

2012-01-01

The equation for slowing global warming includes decreasing carbon emissions into the atmosphere as well as increasing carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Many proposed schemes for increasing carbon sequestration, such as afforestation of nonforested lands, involve tradeoffs with other resource values, including water availability. An alternative idea is to restore...

Global warming potential estimates for the C1-C3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) included in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanastasiou, Dimitrios K.; Beltrone, Allison; Marshall, Paul; Burkholder, James B.

2018-05-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases that are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, the majority of the 274 HCFCs included in Annex C of the protocol do not have reported global warming potentials (GWPs) which are used to guide the phaseout of HCFCs and the future phase down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In this study, GWPs for all C1-C3 HCFCs included in Annex C are reported based on estimated atmospheric lifetimes and theoretical methods used to calculate infrared absorption spectra. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated from a structure activity relationship (SAR) for OH radical reactivity and estimated O(1D) reactivity and UV photolysis loss processes. The C1-C3 HCFCs display a wide range of lifetimes (0.3 to 62 years) and GWPs (5 to 5330, 100-year time horizon) dependent on their molecular structure and the H-atom content of the individual HCFC. The results from this study provide estimated policy-relevant GWP metrics for the HCFCs included in the Montreal Protocol in the absence of experimentally derived metrics.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-01-01

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anthoff, David; Rose, Steven K.

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papersmore » have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.« less

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-05-01

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.