Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treatingmore » VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.« less

Long term hydrographic variability near Bermuda and relation to surface forcing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joyce, T.M.

1997-11-01

This paper provides an extremely brief description of long-term hydrographic observations at Bermuda. The time series of observations near the island goes back to 1922. A secular increase of temperature of approximately 0.5 C per century in the deep water pressure range has been observed; this depth layer is the only one observed at Bermuda to have such a long-term increase. Decadal time scale fluctuations have also been identified, and are correlated to decadal variations in the Labrador Sea. The recent period of decreasing temperature at Bermuda may be a reflection of the increased cooling in the Labrador Sea inmore » recent years. 2 figs.« less

The effect of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions in Turkey: evidence from ARDL bounds testing procedure.

PubMed

Pata, Ugur Korkut

2018-03-01

This paper examines the dynamic short- and long-term relationship between per capita GDP, per capita energy consumption, financial development, urbanization, industrialization, and per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Turkey covering the period from 1974 to 2013. According to the results of the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach, an increase in per capita GDP, per capita energy consumption, financial development, urbanization, and industrialization has a positive effect on per capita CO 2 emissions in the long term, and also the variables other than urbanization increase per capita CO 2 emissions in the short term. In addition, the findings support the validity of the EKC hypothesis for Turkey in the short and long term. However, the turning points obtained from long-term regressions lie outside the sample period. Therefore, as the per capita GDP increases in Turkey, per capita CO 2 emissions continue to increase.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE PAGES

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie; ...

2016-10-18

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and good analytical procedures needed to generate this data. As a result, when combined with a robust QA/QC oversight protocol, these empirical methods can be relied upon to generate high-quality data over a long period of time.« less

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and good analytical procedures needed to generate this data. As a result, when combined with a robust QA/QC oversight protocol, these empirical methods can be relied upon to generate high-quality data over a long period of time.« less

Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548

Factors important in the purchase of partnership long-term care insurance.

PubMed

McCall, N; Mangle, S; Bauer, E; Knickman, J

1998-06-01

To understand the factors important in the purchase of long-term care insurance through the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Partnership for Long-Term Care. Information on the Partnership programs, telephone surveys, data on Partnership purchasers, and random sample frames. Logistic regression analysis is used to examine characteristics associated with the purchase of a Partnership insurance policy. Independent variables are health status, demographic and financial characteristics, knowledge, and attitudes. A telephone survey of Partnership purchasers and a random sample of the population in each Partnership state were conducted. Survey questions included health status, opinions about long-term care and long-term care insurance, financial planning, demographic characteristics, and income and assets. Important in the purchase of a Partnership policy were variables associated with education and knowledge about long-term care. Other important factors include attitudes and health status. Partnership purchase is associated with higher income and asset levels up to a point, with the effect plateauing and decreasing at the highest income and asset levels. Improved education and knowledge are important in increasing long-term care insurance purchase. Attitudes about having a caregiver, and about the government's role in paying for long-term care as well as the potential purchaser's willingness to consider nursing home care affect policy purchase. Also associated with Partnership policy purchase are better health and middle income and asset levels.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sun, Shengzhi; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Qiu, Hong; Wang, Yan; Wong, Chit Ming; Lee, Ruby Siu-Yin; Tian, Linwei

2018-04-05

Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Inverse roles of emotional labour on health and job satisfaction among long-term care workers in Japan.

PubMed

Tsukamoto, Erika; Abe, Takeru; Ono, Michikazu

2015-01-01

Emotional labour increases among long-term care workers because providing care and services to impaired elders causes conflicting interpersonal emotions. Thus, we investigated the associations between emotional labour, general health and job satisfaction among long-term care workers. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 132 established, private day care centres in Tokyo using a mail survey. The outcome variables included two health-related variables and four job satisfaction variables: physical and psychological health, satisfaction with wages, interpersonal relationships, work environment and job satisfaction. We performed multiple regression analyses to identify significant factors. Directors from 36 facilities agreed to participate. A total of 123 responses from long-term care workers were analysed. Greater emotional dissonance was associated with better physical and psychological health and worse work environment satisfaction (partial regression coefficient: -2.93, p = .0389; -3.32, p = .0299; -1.92, p = .0314, respectively). Fewer negative emotions were associated with more job satisfaction (partial regression coefficient: -1.87, p = .0163). We found that emotional labour was significantly inversely associated with health and job satisfaction. Our findings indicated that the emotional labour of long-term care workers has a negative and positive influence on health and workplace satisfaction, and suggests that care quality and stable employment among long-term care workers might affect their emotional labour. Therefore, we think a programme to support emotional labour among long-term care workers in an organized manner and a self-care programme to educate workers regarding emotional labour would be beneficial.

Short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral zone fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, C.L.; Sexton, M.D.; Pelham, M.E.; Larscheid, J.G.

2001-01-01

We assessed short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa. Fish were sampled in several locations at night with large beach seines during spring, summer and fall of 1995-1998. Long-term changes were inferred from comparison with a similar study conducted over 70 y earlier in Spirit Lake. We found 26 species in the littoral zone. The number of species per sample ranged from 4 to 18, averaging 11.8. The average number of species per sample was higher at stations with greater vegetation density. A distinct seasonal pattern was evident in the number of species collected per sample in most years, increasing steadily from spring to fall. Patterns of variability within our 1995-1998 study period suggest that: (1) numerous samples are necessary to adequately characterize a littoral fish community, (2) sampling should be done when vegetation and young-of-year densities are highest and (3) sampling during a single year is inadequate to reveal the full community. The number of native species has declined by approximately 25% over the last 70 y. A coincident decline in littoral vegetation and associated habitat changes during the same period are likely causes of the long-term community change.

Long-Term Coarse Particulate Matter Exposure and Heart Rate Variability in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Richa; D’Souza, Jennifer; Solimon, Elsayed Z.; Burke, Gregory L.; Daviglus, Martha; Jacobs, David R.; Park, Sung Kyun; Sheppard, Lianne; Thorne, Peter S.; Kaufman, Joel D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Adar, Sara D.

2017-01-01

Background Reduced heart rate variability, a marker of impaired cardiac autonomic function, has been linked to short-term exposure to airborne particles. This research adds to the literature by examining associations with long-term exposures to coarse particles (PM10-2.5). Methods Using electrocardiogram recordings from 2,780 participants (45-84 years) from three Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis sites, we assessed the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root-mean square differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals (rMSSD) at a baseline (2000-2002) and follow-up (2010-2012) examination (mean visits/person=1.5). Annual average concentrations of PM10-2.5 mass, copper, zinc, phosphorus, silicon, and endotoxin were estimated using site-specific spatial prediction models. We assessed associations for baseline heart rate variability and rate of change in heart rate variability over time using multivariable mixed models adjusted for time, sociodemographic, lifestyle, health, and neighborhood confounders, including co-pollutants. Results In our primary models adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors and site, PM10-2.5 mass was associated with 1.0% (95% CI: -4.1, 2.1%) lower SDNN levels per interquartile range of 2 μg/m3. Stronger associations, however, were observed prior to site adjustment and with increasing residential stablity. Similar patterns were found for rMSSD. We found little evidence for associations with other chemical species and with with the rate of change in heart rate variability, though endotoxin was associated with increasing heart rate variability over time. Conclusion We found only weak evidence that long-term PM10-2.5 exposures are associated with lowered heart rate variability. Stronger associations among residentially stable individuals suggest that confirmatory studies are needed. PMID:27035690

Microprocessor-based long term cardiorespirography. II. Status evaluation in term and premature newborns.

PubMed

Hörnchen, H; Betz, R; Kotlarek, F; Roebruck, P

1983-01-01

In 1965 URBACH et al. and RUDOLPH et al. [35, 39] described a loss of heart rate variability in severely ill neonates. In this study we investigated the correlation between instantaneous heart rate patterns and status diagnosis. We used a microprocessor-based cardiorespirography system. Seventy five newborn infants (51 prematures and 24 term neonates) were studied for about 12 hours each. Twenty nine patients had a second record after the first investigation. Parameters were: Type of frequency and oscillation, long time variability (LTV), short time variability (STV) and the newly introduced P-value (maximal difference between two successive R-peaks in five minutes). We found clear differences between the study groups. With increasing severity of illness mean values ("group mean values") of long time variability, short time variability and P-value decreased. Fixed heart rate became predominant. The most pronounced loss of heart rate variability was seen in infants with severe intracranial bleeding, thus offering a tentative diagnosis. For statistical analysis long time variability and the silent oscillation type have been proved as best parameters for this diagnosis. Severely decreased heart rate variations also have been seen in infants with acute renal failure--possibly because of brain edema--, after application of muscle relaxants, repeated doses of sedatives, and after prolonged anesthesia. Otherwise, the heart rate variability was probably dependent on age and gestational age in prematures and newborn infants without intracranial bleeding. It is possible to use microprocessor-based long time cardiorespirography as a simple screening method for the diagnosis of neonatal intracerebral bleeding. In future experiences transcutaneous measurements of oxygen tension should be included.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter

2018-04-15

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The association of long-term glycaemic variability versus sustained chronic hyperglycaemia with heart rate-corrected QT interval in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Su, Jian-Bin; Yang, Xiao-Hua; Zhang, Xiu-Lin; Cai, Hong-Li; Huang, Hai-Yan; Zhao, Li-Hua; Xu, Feng; Chen, Tong; Cheng, Xing-Bo; Wang, Xue-Qin; Lu, Yan

2017-01-01

Prolonged heart rate-corrected QT(QTc) interval is related to ventricular arrhythmia and cardiovascular mortality, with considerably high prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Additionally, long-term glycaemic variability could be a significant risk factor for diabetic complications in addition to chronic hyperglycaemia. We compared the associations of long-term glycaemic variability versus sustained chronic hyperglycaemia with the QTc interval among type 2 diabetes patients. In this cross-sectional study, 2904 type 2 diabetes patients were recruited who had undergone at least four fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-hour postprandial plasma glucose (PPG) measurements (at least once for every 3 months, respectively) during the preceding year. Long-term glycaemic variabilities of FPG and 2-hour PPG were assessed by their standard deviations (SD-FPG and SD-PPG, respectively), and chronic fasting and postprandial hyperglycaemia were assessed by their means (M-FPG and M-PPG, respectively). HbA1c was also determined upon enrolment to assess current overall glycaemic control. QTc interval was estimated from resting 12-lead electrocardiograms, and more than 440 ms was considered abnormally prolonged. Patients with prolonged QTc interval (≥440 ms) had greater M-FPG, M-PPG, SD-PPG and HbA1c than those with normal QTc interval but comparable SD-FPG. QTc interval was correlated with M-FPG, M-PPG, SD-PPG and HbA1c (r = 0.133, 0.153, 0.245 and 0.207, respectively, p = 0.000) but not with SD-FPG (r = 0.024, p = 0.189). After adjusting for metabolic risk factors via multiple linear regression analysis, SD-PPG, M-PPG and HbA1c (t = 12.16, 2.69 and 10.16, respectively, p = 0.000) were the major independent contributors to the increased QTc interval. The proportion of prolonged QTc interval increased significantly from 10.9% to 14.2% to 26.6% for the first (T1) to second (T2) to third (T3) tertiles of SD-PPG. After adjusting via multiple logistic regression analysis, the odd ratios of prolonged QTc interval of the T2 and T3 versus the T1 of SD-PPG were 1.15 (95% CI, 0.82-1.60) and 2.62 (1.92-3.57), respectively. Increased long-term variability of PPG is a strong independent risk factor for prolonged QTc interval in type 2 diabetes patients, in addition to long-term postprandial hyperglycaemia and current HbA1c.

Investigation of the Behavior of Hardening Masonry Exposed to Variable Stresses

PubMed Central

Šlivinskas, Tomas; Jonaitis, Bronius; Marčiukaitis, Jonas Gediminas

2018-01-01

This paper analyzes the behavior of masonry under variable loads during execution (construction stage). It specifies the creep coefficient for calcium silicate brick masonry, presenting the research data of masonry deformation under variable and constant long-term loads. The interaction of separate layers of composite material in masonry is introduced and the formulae for determining long-term deformations are offered. The research results of masonry’s compressive strength and deformation properties under variable and constant long-term loads are presented. These are then compared to calculated ones. According to the presented comparison, the calculated long-term deformations coincide quite well with those determined experimentally. PMID:29710802

Investigation of the Behavior of Hardening Masonry Exposed to Variable Stresses.

PubMed

Šlivinskas, Tomas; Jonaitis, Bronius; Marčiukaitis, Jonas Gediminas; Zavalis, Robertas

2018-04-28

This paper analyzes the behavior of masonry under variable loads during execution (construction stage). It specifies the creep coefficient for calcium silicate brick masonry, presenting the research data of masonry deformation under variable and constant long-term loads. The interaction of separate layers of composite material in masonry is introduced and the formulae for determining long-term deformations are offered. The research results of masonry’s compressive strength and deformation properties under variable and constant long-term loads are presented. These are then compared to calculated ones. According to the presented comparison, the calculated long-term deformations coincide quite well with those determined experimentally.

Global Water Clarity: Continuing a Century-Long Monitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic systems worldwide are changing due to increasing climate variability and human activities, yet it is difficult to capture such temporal changes without standardized long-term observations [Boyce et al. 2015, Barton et al. 2016]. Unlike the well-established Keeling curve t...

Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

2018-05-01

Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

Admission white blood cell count predicts short-term clinical outcomes in patients with uncomplicated Stanford type B acute aortic dissection.

PubMed

Chen, Zhao-Ran; Huang, Bi; Lu, Hai-Song; Zhao, Zhen-Hua; Hui, Ru-Tai; Yang, Yan-Min; Fan, Xiao-Han

2017-01-01

Inflammation has been shown to be related with acute aortic dissection (AAD). The present study aimed to evaluate the association of white blood cell counts (WBCc) on admission with both in-hospital and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with uncomplicated Stanford type B AAD. From 2008 to 2010, a total of 377 consecutive patients with uncomplicated type B AAD were enrolled and then followed up. Clinical data and WBCc on admission were collected. The primary end points were in-hospital death and long-term all-cause death. The in-hospital death rate was 4.2%, and the long-term all-cause mortality rate was 6.9% during a median follow-up of 18.9 months. WBCc on admission was identified as a risk factor for in-hospital death by univariate Cox regression analysis as both a continuous variable and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 10 9 cell/L (all P < 0.05). After adjusting for age, sex and other risk factors, elevated admission WBCc was still a significant predictor for in-hospital death as both a continuous variable [hazard ratio (HR): 1.052, 95% CI: 1.024-1.336, P = 0.002] and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 10 9 cell/L (HR: 2.056, 95% CI: 1.673-5.253, P = 0.034). No relationship was observed between WBCc on admission and long-term all-cause death. Our results indicate that elevated WBCc upon admission might be used as a predictor for increased risk of in-hospital death in uncomplicated type B AAD. There might be no predictive value of WBCc for the long-term survival of type B AAD.

Drugs affecting blood pressure variability: an update.

PubMed

Hocht, Christian; Del Mauro, Julieta Sofia; Bertera, Facundo Martín; Taira, Carlos Alberto

2015-01-01

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is considered nowadays a novel risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Clinical evidences support that short-term and long-term BPV independently contribute to target organ damage, cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with hypertension or diabetes. Attenuation of excessive fluctuations of systolic and diastolic BPV has been suggested as an additional therapeutic target in cardiovascular prevention. A growing number of preclinical and clinical studies have focused in the assessment of drug effects or other interventions on the different types of BPV and their contribution in the prevention of cardiovascular events. Prospective clinical trials have shown that antihypertensive classes differ in their ability to control excessive BP fluctuations with an impact in clinical outcomes. Current evidences suggest that calcium channel blockers are more effective than other blood pressure lowering drugs for the reduction of short-term, mid-term and long-term BPV. In order to increase actual knowledge regarding the therapeutic significance of BPV in cardiovascular disease, there is a need for additional clinical studies specifically designed for the study of the relevance of short-term and long-term BPV control by antihypertensive drugs.

How important is interannual variability in the climatic interpretation of moraine sequences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers respond to both long-term climate and interannual forcing. Anderson et al. (2014) pointed out that kilometer-scale fluctuations in glacier length may result from interannual variability in temperature and precipitation given a "steady" climate with no long-term trends in mean or variability of temperature and precipitation. They cautioned that use of outermost moraines from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as indicators of LGM climate will, because of the role of interannual forcing, result in overestimation of the magnitude of long-term temperature depression and/or precipitation enhancement. Here we assess the implications of these ideas, by examining the effect of interannual variability on glacier length and inferred magnitude of LGM climate change from present under both an assumed steady LGM climate and an LGM climate with low-magnitude, long-period variation in summer temperature and annual precipitation. We employ both the original 1-stage linear glacier model (Roe and O'Neal, 2009) used by Anderson et al. (2014) and a newer 3-stage linear model (Roe and Baker, 2014). We apply the models to two reconstructed LGM glaciers in the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Three-stage-model results indicate that, absent long-term variations through a 7500-year-long LGM, interannual variability would result in overestimation of mean LGM temperature depression from the outermost moraine of 0.2-0.6°C. If small long-term cyclic variations of temperature (±0.5°C) and precipitation (±5%) are introduced, the overestimation of LGM temperature depression reduces to less than 0.4°C, and if slightly greater long-term variation (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) is introduced, the magnitude of overestimation is 0.3°C or less. Interannual variability may produce a moraine sequence that differs from the sequence that would be expected were glacier length forced only by long-term climate. With small amplitude (±0.5°C and ±5% precipitation) long-term variation, the moraine sequence expected if forced by a combination of interannual variability and long-term climate differs from that expected based on long-term climate forcing alone in 38% of model runs. With the larger amplitude long-term forcing (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) this difference occurs in 20% of model runs.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using an improved understanding of current climate variability to develop increased drought resilience in UK irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I.; Rey Vicario, D.

2016-12-01

Improving community preparedness for climate change can be supported by developing resilience to past events, focused on those changes of particular relevance (such as floods and droughts). However, communities' perceptions of impacts and risk can be influenced by an incomplete appreciation of historical baseline climate variability. This can arise from a number of factors including individual's age, access to long term data records and availability of local knowledge. For example, the most significant recent drought in the UK occurred in 1976/77 but does it represent the worst drought that did occur (or could have occurred) without climate change? We focus on the east of England where most irrigated agriculture is located and where many local farmers interviewed were either not in business then or have an incomplete memory of the impacts of the drought. This paper describes a comparison of an annual agroclimatic indicator closely linked to irrigation demand (maximum Potential Soil Moisture Deficit) calculated from three sources of long term observational and simulated historical weather data with recent data. These long term datasets include gridded measured / calculated datasets of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration; a dynamically downscaled 20th Century Re-analysis dataset, and two Regional Climate Model ensemble datasets (FutureFlows and the MaRIUS event set) which each provide between 110 and 3000 years of baseline weather. The comparison shows that the long term datasets provide a wider characterisation of current climate variability and affect the perception of current drought frequency and severity. The paper will show that using a more comprehensive understanding of current climate variability and drought risk as a basis for adapting irrigated systems to droughts can provide substantial increased resilience to (uncertain) climate change.

Daily Course of CO2 Fluxes in the Atmosphere-Water System and Variable Fluorescence of Phytoplankton during the Open-Water Period for Lake Baikal according to Long-Term Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavoruev, V. V.; Domysheva, V. M.; Pestunov, D. A.; Sakirko, M. V.; Panchenko, M. V.

2018-04-01

The process of gas exchange of CO2 in the atmosphere-water system and its relation to the daily course of variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is studied on the basis of long-term (2004-2014) measurements during the open water period for Lake Baikal. It is found that the decrease in photosynthetic activity of plankton is almost synchronous to the increase in the CO2 flux from atmosphere to water. It follows from comparison of the spring and summer data with December measurements that the daily decrease in variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is caused by the internal daily rhythm of the photosynthetic activity of plankton.

7 CFR 1980.423 - Interest rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... variable as long as they are legal. Interest rates will be those rates customarily charged borrowers in... and borrower. The variable interest rate may be adjusted at different intervals during the term of the... areas, whether the monetary recovery would be increased by proceeding immediately to liquidation, if...

Physicochemical properties related to long-term phosphorus retention by drinking-water treatment residuals.

PubMed

Makris, Konstantinos C; Harris, Willie G; O'Connor, George A; Obreza, Thomas A; Elliott, Herschel A

2005-06-01

Drinking-water treatment residuals (WTRs) are nonhazardous materials that can be obtained free-of-charge from drinking-water treatment plants to reduce soluble phosphorus (P) concentrations in poorly P sorbing soils. Phosphorus sorption capacities of WTRs can vary 1-2 orders of magnitude, on the basis of short-term equilibration times (up to 7 d), but studies dealing with long-term (weeks to months) P retention by WTRs are lacking. Properties that most affect long-term P sorption capacities are pertinent to the efficacy of WTRs as amendments to stabilize P in soils. This research addressed the long-term (up to 80 d) P sorption/desorption characteristics and kinetics for seven WTRs, including the influence of specific surface area (SSA), porosity, and total C content on the overall magnitude of P sorption by seven WTRs. The data confirm a strong but variable affinity for P by WTRs. Aluminum-based WTRs tended to have higher P sorption capacity than Fe-based WTRs. Phosphorus sorption with time was biphasic in nature for most samples and best fit to a second-order rate model. The P sorption rate dependency was strongly correlated with a hysteretic P desorption, consistent with kinetic limitations on P desorption from micropores. Oxalate-extractable Al + Fe concentrations of the WTRs did not effectively explain long-term (80 d) P sorption capacities of the WTRs. Micropore (CO2-based) SSAs were greater than BET-N2 SSAs for most WTRs, except those with the lowest (<80 g kg(-1)) total C content. There was a significant negative linear correlation between the total C content and the CO2/N2 SSA ratio. The data suggest that C in WTRs increases microporosity, but reduces P sorption per unit pore volume or surface area. Hence, variability in C content confounds direct relations among SSA, porosity, and P sorption. Total C, N2-based SSA, and CO2-based SSAs explained 82% of the variability in the long-term P sorption capacities of the WTRs. Prediction of long-term P sorption capacities for different WTRs may be achieved by taking into account the three proposed variables.

Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-01-01

Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others, conservation and management efforts can benefit by understanding spatial- and gender-based stress responses to landscape conditions.

Spatial Analysis of Factors Influencing Long-Term Stress in the Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) Population of Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Cattet, Marc R. L.; Darimont, Chris T.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

2013-01-01

Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others, conservation and management efforts can benefit by understanding spatial- and gender-based stress responses to landscape conditions. PMID:24386273

A social systems model of nursing home use.

PubMed Central

Wolf, R S

1978-01-01

Causal modeling (path analysis) was applied to data from the 39 mental health catchment areas of Massachusetts to analyze the effects of sociocultural and health-resource variables on long-term-care utilization. The variables chosen explained 53 percent of the variance of long-term-care use by persons 60 and older: 41 percent was explained by the sociocultural variables and 12 percent by the health-resource variables. With data adjusted for age, the major determinant of long-term-care use was ethnicity: less long-term care was used in areas with more persons who were foreign-born or had a foreign-born parent. The effects of other health resources (supply of primary care physicians and use of mental and general (short-term) hospitals) were small and negative. PMID:418027

[Blood pressure variability: clinical interest or simple curiosity?].

PubMed

Ciaroni, Stefano

2007-03-14

Blood pressure variability is a physiological phenomenon influenced by many internal and external factors. This variability could be also influenced by pathological conditions such as arterial hypertension. Two forms must be mainly distinguished: the blood pressure variability at long and short-term. The latter could only be studied by continuous recordings. In this article will be analysed the interest of measuring blood pressure variability, its cardiovascular prognosis and the therapeutic tools when it is increased.

The causal effects of home care use on institutional long-term care utilization and expenditures.

PubMed

Guo, Jing; Konetzka, R Tamara; Manning, Willard G

2015-03-01

Limited evidence exists on whether expanding home care saves money overall or how much institutional long-term care can be reduced. This paper estimates the causal effect of Medicaid-financed home care services on the costs and utilization of institutional long-term care using Medicaid claims data. A unique instrumental variable was applied to address the potential bias caused by omitted variables or reverse effect of institutional care use. We find that the use of Medicaid-financed home care services significantly reduced but only partially offset utilization and Medicaid expenditures on nursing facility services. A $1000 increase in Medicaid home care expenditures avoided 2.75 days in nursing facilities and reduced annual Medicaid nursing facility costs by $351 among people over age 65 when selection bias is addressed. Failure to address selection biases would misestimate the substitution and offset effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Soil Parameter Mapping and Ad Hoc Power Analysis to Increase Blocking Efficiency Prior to Establishing a Long-Term Field Experiment.

PubMed

Collins, Doug; Benedict, Chris; Bary, Andy; Cogger, Craig

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of soil and weed populations poses a challenge to researchers. Unlike aboveground variability, below-ground variability is more difficult to discern without a strategic soil sampling pattern. While blocking is commonly used to control environmental variation, this strategy is rarely informed by data about current soil conditions. Fifty georeferenced sites were located in a 0.65 ha area prior to establishing a long-term field experiment. Soil organic matter (OM) and weed seed bank populations were analyzed at each site and the spatial structure was modeled with semivariograms and interpolated with kriging to map the surface. These maps were used to formulate three strategic blocking patterns and the efficiency of each pattern was compared to a completely randomized design and a west to east model not informed by soil variability. Compared to OM, weeds were more variable across the landscape and had a shorter range of autocorrelation, and models to increase blocking efficiency resulted in less increase in power. Weeds and OM were not correlated, so no model examined improved power equally for both parameters. Compared to the west to east blocking pattern, the final blocking pattern chosen resulted in a 7-fold increase in power for OM and a 36% increase in power for weeds.

Jovian Northern Ethane Aurora and the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk,T.; Livengood, T.; Fast, K.; Buhl, D.; Goldstein, J.; Hewagama, T.

1999-01-01

Thermal infrared auroral spectra from Jupiter's North polar region have been collected from 1979 to 1998 in a continuing study of long-term variability in the northern thermal IR aurora, using C2H6 emission lines near 12 microns as a probe. Data from Voyager I and 2 IRIS measurements and ground based spectral measurements were analyzed using the same model atmosphere to provide a consistent relative comparison. A retrieved equivalent mole fraction was used to compare the observed integrated emission. Short term (days), medium term (months) and long term (years) variability in the ethane emission was observed. The variability Of C2H6 emission intensities was compared to Jupiter's seasonal cycle and the solar activity cycle. A positive correlation appears to exist, with significantly greater emission and short term variability during solar maxima. Observations on 60 N latitude during increased solar activity in 1979, 1989, and most recently in 1998 show up to 5 times brighter integrated line emission of C2H6 near the north polar "hot spot" (150-210 latitude) than from the north quiescent region. Significantly lower enhancement was observed during periods of lower solar activity in 1982, 1983, 1993, and 1995. Possible sources and mechanisms for the enhancement and variability will be discussed.

A Short-Term Longitudinal Study of Memorial Development during Early Grade School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunzinger, Edward L., III

1985-01-01

Overt rehearsal and free recall performance was analyzed longitudinally in two experimental testing sessions at 7 and later at 9 years of age. Measures of short- and long-term memory recall, and two measures of input processing were obtained. Significant increases between age levels were exhibited by all variables except short-term memory.…

Macroalgal communities on multi-stressed coral reefs in the Caribbean: Long-term changes, spatial variations, and relationships with environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangil, Carlos; Guzman, Hector M.

2016-11-01

Long-term changes in macroalgal cover, spatial variation between macroalgal communities, and relationships with environmental variables and benthic groups were assessed in coral reefs along the Caribbean coast of Panama. Sampling was conducted in two regions: Western and Central. Data collected between 2000 and 2012 showed a continuous increase in macroalgal abundance, although patterns differed according to region and site. There were differences in macroalgal communities between regions, as well as within regions between different wave-exposure levels. There were also differences between sites within regions exposed to the same level of wave action. Multivariate analysis found that wave exposure along with herbivore density (Echinometra viridis) and sedimentation were the variables that explained most of the variability between communities. Other variables such as Echinometra lucunter and Diadema antillarum densities, fish density, productivity, and live coral cover had significant relationships with community structure, but explained less of the variability.

Seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities and tendencies of water vapour in the upper stratosphere and mesospheric region over tropics (30°N-30°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Oindrila; Sridharan, S.; Naidu, C. V.

2018-01-01

Tropical water vapour volume mixing ratio (WVMR) data for October 2004-September 2015 obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder are used to study its long-term variabilities and tendencies in the height region 12.1-0.002 hPa. Above 0.01 hPa, the WVMR shows minimum March-May and September-November (∼0.7-0.8 ppmv) and maximum during June-August. It shows a large interannual variability at 31-64 km. The results from multivariate regression analysis show an increasing trend with maximum value of ∼0.045 ppmv/yr at 1.21-0.41 hPa. It shows a significant negative solar cycle response at mesospheric heights.

Dramatic Variability of the Carbonate System at a Temperate Coastal Ocean Site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) Is Regulated by Physical and Biogeochemical Processes on Multiple Timescales

PubMed Central

Johnson, Zackary I.; Wheeler, Benjamin J.; Blinebry, Sara K.; Carlson, Christina M.; Ward, Christopher S.; Hunt, Dana E.

2013-01-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification. PMID:24358377

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.

2012-10-15

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numericalmore » global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.« less

Glucose variability negatively impacts long-term functional outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Matsushima, Kazuhide; Peng, Monica; Velasco, Carlos; Schaefer, Eric; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Frankel, Heidi

2012-04-01

Significant glycemic excursions (so-called glucose variability) affect the outcome of generic critically ill patients but has not been well studied in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of glucose variability on long-term functional outcome of patients with TBI. A noncomputerized tight glucose control protocol was used in our intensivist model surgical intensive care unit. The relationship between the glucose variability and long-term (a median of 6 months after injury) functional outcome defined by extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Glucose variability was defined by SD and percentage of excursion (POE) from the preset range glucose level. A total of 109 patients with TBI under tight glucose control had long-term GOSE evaluated. In univariable analysis, there was a significant association between lower GOSE score and higher mean glucose, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL but not POE 80 to 110. After adjusting for possible confounding variables in multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL were significantly associated with lower GOSE score. Glucose variability was significantly associated with poorer long-term functional outcome in patients with TBI as measured by the GOSE score. Well-designed protocols to minimize glucose variability may be key in improving long-term functional outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

2017-12-01

The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south of the Alps, on a region spanning 200 km. Caracterisation of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts snow resorts and artificial snow production developments and multi-purposes dam reservoirs managments.

Cumulative exposure to shift work and sickness absence: associations in a five-year historic cohort.

PubMed

van Drongelen, Alwin; Boot, Cécile R L; Hlobil, Hynek; van der Beek, Allard J; Smid, Tjabe

2017-01-11

Exposure to shift work has been associated with negative health consequences, although the association between shift work and sickness absence remains unclear. The aim of this study is to investigate associations between cumulative exposure to shift work and sickness absence among ground staff employees of an airline company. This study used data from the MORE (Monitoring Occupational Health Risks in Employees) cohort, which is a 5-year historic cohort. The population of the present study consisted of 7562 ground staff employees. For each employee, work schedules and sickness absence days between 2005 and 2009 were obtained from company records. For the exposure to different shift schedule types and to the cumulative number of night shifts, the association with long-term sickness absence (>7 consecutive sickness absence days) and the number of sickness absence episodes during 2009, was calculated using logistic and Poisson regression analyses. Socio-demographic variables, work-related variables, job classification variables, and previous sickness absence days were regarded as confounders. After adjusting for previous sickness absence and job classification variables, only the group of employees that switched into working in a three-shift schedule, showed a significantly increased risk for long-term sickness absence (OR = 1.31, 95%CI 1.02-1.69). Night shift exposure was not significantly associated with long-term sickness absence. Exposure to shift work was negatively associated with more sickness absence episodes. Employees who were exposed to more than 46 night shifts also showed a lower risk for more sickness absence episodes. Subgroup analyses showed that single employees and employees without children had an increased risk for long-term sickness absence when exposed to a three-shift schedule, and when they had changed between shift schedule types. Cumulative exposure to shift work proved to be negatively associated with more sickness absence episodes, and was not associated with more long-term sickness absence, although selection bias could not be ruled out. Future research should explore the influence of household composition, and take into account both previous sickness absence and psychosocial and physical work factors to obtain a better estimation of the association between shift work and sickness absence.

Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

2017-12-01

Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

The influence of flood frequency, riparian vegetation and threshold on long-term river transport capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

2016-04-01

Climate fluctuations at geological timescales control the capacity of rivers to transport sediment with consequences on geochemical cycles, sedimentary basins dynamics and sedimentation/tectonics interactions. While the impact of differential friction generated by riparian vegetation has been studied for individual flood events, its impact on the long-term sediment transport capacity of rivers, modulated by the frequency of floods remains unknown. Here, we investigate this effect on a simplified river-floodplain configuration obeying observed hydraulic scaling laws. We numerically integrate the full-frequency magnitude distribution of discharge events and its impact on the transport capacity of bedload and suspended material for various level of vegetation-linked differential friction. We demonstrate that riparian vegetation by acting as a virtual confinement of the flow i) increases significantly the instantaneous transport capacity of the river independently of the transport mode and ii) increases the long term bedload transport rates as a function of discharge variability. Our results expose the dominance of flood frequency rather than riparian vegetation on the long term sediment transport capacity. Therefore, flood frequency has to be considered when evaluating long-term bedload transport capacity while floodplain vegetation is important only in high discharge variability regimes. By comparing the transport capacity of unconfined alluvial rivers and confined bedrock gorges, we demonstrate that the latter always presents the highest long term transport capacity at equivalent width and slope. The loss of confinement at the transition between bedrock and alluvial river must be compensated by a widening or a steepening of the alluvial channel to avoid infinite storage. Because steepening is never observed in natural system, we compute the alluvial widening factor value that varies between 3 to 11 times the width of the bedrock channel depending on riparian vegetation and discharge variability. This result is well supported by measurements made in natural river systems in different worldwide locations (Taiwan, Himalayas and New Zealand). Although bank cohesion is often invoked to as a property that sets alluvial river width, we propose unconfinement as another important control factor.

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

PubMed

Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

2017-01-24

To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

2015-11-01

Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

Medical and non-medical predictors of initiating long-term use of proton pump inhibitors: a nationwide cohort study of first-time users during a 10-year period.

PubMed

Haastrup, P F; Paulsen, M S; Christensen, R D; Søndergaard, J; Hansen, J M; Jarbøl, D E

2016-07-01

Studies of the increasing use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) have mainly focused on prevalent long-term use and associations with gastrointestinal morbidity and comedication. Little is known about non-medical characteristics of first-time users of PPI, and predictors of initiating long-term use of PPIs. To describe medical and non-medical characteristics of first-time PPI users during a 10-year period and to analyse predictors of initiation of long-term use (>60 defined daily doses (DDDs) within 6 months) of PPIs. A nationwide cohort study of first-time users of PPI. Data were collected from Danish national registers. Individuals redeeming their first prescription for a PPI (omeprazole, lansoprazole, pantoprazole, rabeprazole, esomeprazole) in 2001 and 2011 were identified. Redemption of more than 60 DDDs of PPI within 6 months defined long-term use. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations between previous diagnoses, comedication and socio-economic characteristics and initiation of long-term use of PPIs in 2011. From 2001 to 2011 incidence of first-time users increased with an incidence rate ratio of 1.53 and mean quantity of PPI redeemed at first prescription increased by 44.6%. In 2011 a total of 37.6% redeemed >60 DDDs within 6 months, and 96% of the long-term users did not have a diagnosis registered which indicated treatment. New onset long-term use was significantly associated with low income and low educational level when adjusting for other predisposing variables. Proton pump inhibitor treatment is increasingly initiated with larger quantities prescribed for indications that are unidentifiable from the registers. Morbidity and comedication seem to be the strongest predictors of new onset long-term use of PPIs. However, there is also an independent social gradient. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests.

PubMed

Samadi, Alihussein; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah

2013-06-01

Over the last decade there has been an increase in healthcare expenditures while at the same time the inequity in distribution of resources has grown. These two issues have urged the researchers to review the determinants of healthcare expenditures. In this study, we surveyed the determinants of health expenditures in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) countries. We used Panel data econometrics methods for the purpose of this research. For long term analysis, we used Pesaran cross sectional dependency test followed by panel unit root tests to show first whether the variables were stationary or not. Upon confirmation of no stationary variables, we used Westerlund panel cointegration test in order to show whether long term relationships exist between the variables. At the end, we estimated the model with Continuous-Updated Fully Modified (CUP-FM) estimator. For short term analysis also, we used Fixed Effects (FE) estimator to estimate the model. A long term relationship was found between the health expenditures per capita and GDP per capita, the proportion of population below 15 and above 65 years old, number of physicians, and urbanisation. Besides, all the variables had short term relationships with health expenditures, except for the proportion of population above 65 years old. The coefficient of GDP was below 1 in the model. Therefore, health is counted as a necessary good in ECO countries and governments must pay due attention to the equal distribution of health services in all regions of the country.

Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests

PubMed Central

Samadi, Alihussein; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah

2013-01-01

Background: Over the last decade there has been an increase in healthcare expenditures while at the same time the inequity in distribution of resources has grown. These two issues have urged the researchers to review the determinants of healthcare expenditures. In this study, we surveyed the determinants of health expenditures in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) countries. Methods: We used Panel data econometrics methods for the purpose of this research. For long term analysis, we used Pesaran cross sectional dependency test followed by panel unit root tests to show first whether the variables were stationary or not. Upon confirmation of no stationary variables, we used Westerlund panel cointegration test in order to show whether long term relationships exist between the variables. At the end, we estimated the model with Continuous-Updated Fully Modified (CUP-FM) estimator. For short term analysis also, we used Fixed Effects (FE) estimator to estimate the model. Results: A long term relationship was found between the health expenditures per capita and GDP per capita, the proportion of population below 15 and above 65 years old, number of physicians, and urbanisation. Besides, all the variables had short term relationships with health expenditures, except for the proportion of population above 65 years old. Conclusion: The coefficient of GDP was below 1 in the model. Therefore, health is counted as a necessary good in ECO countries and governments must pay due attention to the equal distribution of health services in all regions of the country. PMID:24596838

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-06-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

2017-08-16

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

[Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability: clinical and prognostic significance].

PubMed

Kotovskaia, Iu V; Troitskaia, E A; Kobalava, Zh D

2014-01-01

The phenomenon of variability of blood pressure (BP) was studied for a long time, but recently it has received increased attention, with the focus shifted from short-term BP variability, estimated at daily monitoring for clinical blood pressure variability from visit to visit, which can be regarded as one of the indicators quality control of blood pressure with prolonged treatment. In light of the recent years of clinical data from visit to visit BP variability seems a promising new target for antihypertensive therapy.

Heat wave phenomenon in southern Slovakia: long-term changes and variability of daily maximum air temperature in Hurbanovo within the 1901-2009 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Výberči, D.; Jarošová, M.; Å¥Astný, P. Å.

2010-09-01

Analysis of long-term changes and temporal variability of heat waves incidence in the region of southern Slovakia within the 1901-2009 periods is a goal of the presented contribution. It is expected that climate change in terms of global warming would amplify temporal frequency and spatial extension of extreme heat wave incidence in region of central Europe in the next few decades. The frequency of occurrence and amplitude of heat waves may be impacted by changes in the temperature regime. Heat waves can cause severe thermal environmental stress leading to higher hospital admission rates, health complications, and increased mortality. These effects arise because of one or more meteorology-related factors such as higher effective temperatures, sunshine, more consecutive hot days and nights, stagnation, increased humidity, increased pollutant emissions, and accelerated photochemical smog and particulate formation. Heat waves bring about higher temperatures, increased solar heating of buildings, inhibited ventilation, and a larger number of consecutive warm days and nights. All of these effects increase the thermal loads on buildings, reduce their ability to cool down, and increase indoor temperatures. The paper is focused to analysis of long-term and inter-decadal temporal variability of heat waves occurrence at meteorological station Hurbanovo (time-series of daily maximum air temperature available from at least 1901). We can characterize the heat waves by its magnitude and duration, hence both of these characteristics need to be investigated together using sophisticated statistical methods developed particularly for the analysis of extreme hydrological events. We investigated particular heat wave periods either from the severity point of view using HWI index. In the paper we also present the results of statistical analysis of daily maximum air temperature within 1901-2009 period. Apart from these investigation efforts we also focused on synoptic causes of heat wave incidence in connection with macro scale circulation patterns in central European region.

Long-Term Intermittent Hypoxia Elevates Cobalt Levels in the Brain and Injures White Matter in Adult Mice

PubMed Central

Veasey, Sigrid C.; Lear, Jessica; Zhu, Yan; Grinspan, Judith B.; Hare, Dominic J.; Wang, SiHe; Bunch, Dustin; Doble, Philip A.; Robinson, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: Exposure to the variable oxygenation patterns in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) causes oxidative stress within the brain. We hypothesized that this stress is associated with increased levels of redox-active metals and white matter injury. Design: Participants were randomly allocated to a control or experimental group (single independent variable). Setting: University animal house. Participants: Adult male C57BL/6J mice. Interventions: To model OSA, mice were exposed to long-term intermittent hypoxia (LTIH) for 10 hours/day for 8 weeks or sham intermittent hypoxia (SIH). Measurements and Results: Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry was used to quantitatively map the distribution of the trace elements cobalt, copper, iron, and zinc in forebrain sections. Control mice contained 62 ± 7 ng cobalt/g wet weight, whereas LTIH mice contained 5600 ± 600 ng cobalt/g wet weight (P < 0.0001). Other elements were unchanged between conditions. Cobalt was concentrated within white matter regions of the brain, including the corpus callosum. Compared to that of control mice, the corpus callosum of LTIH mice had significantly more endoplasmic reticulum stress, fewer myelin-associated proteins, disorganized myelin sheaths, and more degenerated axon profiles. Because cobalt is an essential component of vitamin B12, serum methylmalonic acid (MMA) levels were measured. LTIH mice had low MMA levels (P < 0.0001), indicative of increased B12 activity. Conclusions: Long-term intermittent hypoxia increases brain cobalt, predominantly in the white matter. The increased cobalt is associated with endoplasmic reticulum stress, myelin loss, and axonal injury. Low plasma methylmalonic acid levels are associated with white matter injury in long-term intermittent hypoxia and possibly in obstructive sleep apnea. Citation: Veasey SC; Lear J; Zhu Y; Grinspan JB; Hare DJ; Wang S; Bunch D; Doble PA; Robinson SR. Long-term intermittent hypoxia elevates cobalt levels in the brain and injures white matter in adult mice. SLEEP 2013;36(10):1471-1481. PMID:24082306

Long commuting time, extensive overtime, and sympathodominant state assessed in terms of short-term heart rate variability among male white-collar workers in the Tokyo megalopolis.

PubMed

Kageyama, T; Nishikido, N; Kobayashi, T; Kurokawa, Y; Kaneko, T; Kabuto, M

1998-07-01

To investigate the possible effects of long commuting time and extensive overtime on daytime cardiac autonomic activity, the short-term heart rate variability (HRV) both at supine rest and at standing rest of 223 male white-collar workers in the Tokyo Megalopolis was examined. Workers with a one-way commute of 90 min or more exhibited decreased vagal activity at supine rest and increased sympathetic activity regardless of posture, and those doing overtime of 60 h/month or more exhibited decreased vagal activity and increased sympathetic activity at standing rest. These findings suggest that chronic stress or fatigue resulting from long commuting time or extensive overtime caused these individuals to be in a sympathodominant state. Although these shifts in autonomic activities are not direct indicators of disease, it can be hypothesized that they can induce cardiovascular abnormalities or dysfunctions related to the onset of heart disease. Assessment of the daily and weekly variations in HRV as a function of daily life activities (such as working, commuting, sleeping, and exercising) among workers in Asia-Pacific urban areas might be one way of studying the possible effects of long commuting time, and extensive overtime, on health.

Long-term Photometric Variability in Kepler Full-frame Images: Magnetic Cycles of Sun–like Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montet, Benjamin T.; Tovar, Guadalupe; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel

2017-12-01

Photometry from the Kepler mission is optimized to detect small, short-duration signals like planet transits at the expense of long-term trends. This long-term variability can be recovered in photometry from the full-frame images (FFIs), a set of calibration data collected approximately monthly during the Kepler mission. Here we present f3, an open-source package to perform photometry on the Kepler FFIs in order to detect changes in the brightness of stars in the Kepler field of view over long time baselines. We apply this package to a sample of 4000 Sun–like stars with measured rotation periods. We find that ≈10% of these targets have long-term variability in their observed flux. For the majority of targets, we find that the luminosity variations are either correlated or anticorrelated with the short-term variability due to starspots on the stellar surface. We find a transition between anticorrelated (starspot-dominated) variability and correlated (facula-dominated) variability between rotation periods of 15 and 25 days, suggesting the transition between the two modes is complete for stars at the age of the Sun. We also identify a sample of stars with apparently complete cycles, as well as a collection of short-period binaries with extreme photometric variation over the Kepler mission.

Reorganization increases long-term sickness absence at all levels of hospital staff: panel data analysis of employees of Norwegian public hospitals.

PubMed

Ingelsrud, Mari H

2014-09-19

The Norwegian specialist health service has undergone many processes of reorganization during the last three decades. Changes are mainly initiated to increase the efficiency and quality of health care serving an ageing population under the condition of a diminishing labour supply. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of reorganization on long-term sickness absence among different levels of hospital staff. The study draws on panel data on employees of Norwegian public hospitals in 2005 and 2007 (N = 106,715). National register data on individual employees' days of medically certified long-term (>16 days) sickness absence were linked with survey measures of actual reorganization executed at each hospital in each year. The surveys, answered by hospital administration staff, measured five types of reorganization: merging units, splitting up units, creating new units, shutting down units and reallocation of employees. The variation in sickness absence days was analysed using random and fixed effects Poisson regression with level of reorganization as the main explanatory variable. The fixed effects analysis shows that increasing the degree of organizational change at a hospital from a low to a moderate or high degree leads to an increase in the number of days of long-term sickness absence of respectively 9% (95% CI: 1.03-1.15) and 8% (95% CI: 1.02-1.15). There are few significant differences between employees in different education categories. Only physicians have a significantly higher relative increase in days of long-term sickness absence than the control group with lower tertiary education. Increased long-term sickness absence is a risk following reorganization. This risk affects all levels of hospital staff.

Long-term impacts of variable retention harvesting on ground-layer plant communities in Pinus resinosa forests

Treesearch

Margaret W. Roberts; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christel C. Kern; Brian J. Palik; Lorenzo Marini

2016-01-01

Concerns about loss of biodiversity and structural complexity in managed forests have recently increased and led to the development of new management strategies focused on restoring or maintaining ecosystem functions while also providing wood outputs. Variable retention harvest (VRH) systems, in which mature overstorey trees are retained in various spatial arrangements...

National variability in provision of health services for major long-term conditions in New Zealand (a report from the ABCC NZ study).

PubMed

Connolly, Martin J; Kenealy, Timothy; Barber, P Alan; Carswell, Peter; Clinton, Janet; Dyall, Lorna; Devlin, Gerard; Doughty, Robert N; Kerse, Ngaire; Kolbe, John; Lawrenson, Ross; Moffitt, Allan; Sheridan, Nicolette

2011-10-14

Chronic illness is the leading cause of morbidity, mortality, and inequitable health outcomes in New Zealand. The ABCCNZ Stocktake aimed to identify extent of long-term conditions management evidence-based practices in stroke, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure in New Zealand's District Health Boards (DHBs). Eleven 'dimensions' of care for long-term conditions, identified by literature review and confirmed at workshops with long-term conditions professionals, formed the basis of the Stocktake of all 21 DHBs. It comprised two questionnaires: a generic component capturing perceptions of practice; and a disease-specific component assessing service provision. Fifteen DHBs completed all or parts of the questionnaires. Data accrual was completed in July 2008. Although most DHBs had developed long-term conditions management strategies to a moderate degree, there was considerable variability of practice between DHBs. DHBs thought their PHOs had developed strategies in some areas to a low to moderate level, though cardiovascular disease provision rated more highly. Regarding disease-specific services, larger DHBs had greater long-term conditions management provision not only of tertiary services, but of standard care, leadership, self-management, case-management, and audit. There is considerable variability in perceptions of long-term conditions management service provision across DHBs. In many instances variability in actual disease-specific service provision appears to relate to DHB size.

Soil Parameter Mapping and Ad Hoc Power Analysis to Increase Blocking Efficiency Prior to Establishing a Long-Term Field Experiment

PubMed Central

Collins, Doug; Benedict, Chris; Bary, Andy; Cogger, Craig

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of soil and weed populations poses a challenge to researchers. Unlike aboveground variability, below-ground variability is more difficult to discern without a strategic soil sampling pattern. While blocking is commonly used to control environmental variation, this strategy is rarely informed by data about current soil conditions. Fifty georeferenced sites were located in a 0.65 ha area prior to establishing a long-term field experiment. Soil organic matter (OM) and weed seed bank populations were analyzed at each site and the spatial structure was modeled with semivariograms and interpolated with kriging to map the surface. These maps were used to formulate three strategic blocking patterns and the efficiency of each pattern was compared to a completely randomized design and a west to east model not informed by soil variability. Compared to OM, weeds were more variable across the landscape and had a shorter range of autocorrelation, and models to increase blocking efficiency resulted in less increase in power. Weeds and OM were not correlated, so no model examined improved power equally for both parameters. Compared to the west to east blocking pattern, the final blocking pattern chosen resulted in a 7-fold increase in power for OM and a 36% increase in power for weeds. PMID:26247056

Long and Short Term Variability of the Main Physical Parameters in the Coastal Area of the SE Baltic Proper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mingelaite, Toma; Rukseniene, Viktorija; Dailidiene, Inga

2015-04-01

Keywords: SE Baltic Sea, coastal upwelling, IR Remote Sensing The memory of the ocean and seas of atmospheric forcing events contributes to the long-term climate change. Intensifying climate change processes in the North Atlantic region including Baltic Sea has drawn widespread interest, as a changing water temperature has ecological, economic and social impact in coastal areas of the Europe seas. In this work we analyse long and short term variability of the main physical parameters in the coastal area of the South Eastern Baltic Sea Proper. The analysis of long term variability is based on monitoring data measured in the South Eastern Baltic Sea for the last 50 years. The main focus of the long term variability is changes of hydro meteorological parameters relevant to the observed changes in the climate.The water salinity variations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, were analysed along with the time series of some related hydroclimatic factors. The short term water temperature and salinity variations were analysed with a strong focus on coastal upwelling events. Combining both remote sensing and in situ monitoring data physical parameters such as vertical salinity variations during upwelling events was analysed. The coastal upwelling in the SE Baltic Sea coast, depending on its scale and intensity, may lead to an intrusion of colder and saltier marine waters to the Curonian Lagoon resulting in hydrodynamic changes and pronounced temperature drop extending for 30-40 km further down the Lagoon. The study results show that increasing trends of water level, air and water temperature, and decreasing ice cover duration are related to the changes in meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and more specifically, to the changes in regional and local wind regime climate. That is in a good agreement with the increasing trends in local higher intensity of westerly winds, and with the winter NAO index that indicates the change and variations of the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, including the Baltic Sea area. This work is supported by "Lithuanian Maritime Sectors' Technologies and Environmental Research Development" project Nr. VP1-3.1-ŠMM-08-K-01-019 funded by the European Social Fund Agency.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

[Demand for cigarettes and tax increases in El Salvador].

PubMed

Ramos-Carbajales, Alejandro; González-Rozada, Martín; Vallarino, Hugo

2016-10-01

Analyze short- and long-term elasticities of demand for cigarettes in El Salvador as a tool for supporting recommendations on tax increases to reduce prevalence and consumption through price increases. Demand for cigarettes in El Salvador was analyzed through an econometric time-series model using a database from El Salvador's General Directorate of Internal Taxes (DGII) and the General Directorate of Statistics and Census (DIGESTYC). The analysis period was quarterly: 2000Q1-2012Q4. The usual tests were done to prevent a spurious econometric estimation. It was found that the variables volume sales, actual sale prices, and actual per capita income exhibited first-order cointegration; this result makes it possible to use an error correction model with short- and long-term elasticity estimates. Only long-term elasticities were found to be statistically significant to 5%. Results show long-term price elasticity (5 quarters) of -0.9287 and income price elasticity of 0.9978. Absolute price elasticity is somewhat high, although it is within the levels estimated in other studies in low per-capita income countries. A tax increase from a base amount of US$1.04 per pack of 20 cigarettes to US$1.66 within three years would reduce demand by 20% to 31% and would increase tax revenues by 9% to 22%.

Evolution of Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Bloom, A.

2014-09-01

Variable generation such as wind and photovoltaic solar power has increased substantially in recent years. Variable generation has unique characteristics compared to the traditional technologies that supply energy in the wholesale electricity markets. These characteristics create unique challenges in planning and operating the power system, and they can also influence the performance and outcomes from electricity markets. This report focuses on two particular issues related to market design: revenue sufficiency for long-term reliability and incentivizing flexibility in short-term operations. The report provides an overview of current design and some designs that have been proposed by industry or researchers.

Factors associated with survival of epiploic foramen entrapment colic: a multicentre, international study.

PubMed

Archer, D C; Pinchbeck, G L; Proudman, C J

2011-08-01

Epiploic foramen entrapment (EFE) has been associated with reduced post operative survival compared to other types of colic but specific factors associated with reduced long-term survival of these cases have not been evaluated in a large number of horses using survival analysis. To describe post operative survival of EFE cases and to identify factors associated with long-term survival. A prospective, multicentre, international study was conducted using clinical data and long-term follow-up information for 126 horses diagnosed with EFE during exploratory laparotomy at 15 clinics in the UK, Ireland and USA. Descriptive data were generated and survival analysis performed to identify factors associated with reduced post operative survival. For the EFE cohort that recovered following anaesthesia, survival to hospital discharge was 78.5%. Survival to 1 and 2 years post operatively was 50.6 and 34.3%, respectively. The median survival time of EFE cases undergoing surgery was 397 days. Increased packed cell volume (PCV) and increased length of small intestine (SI) resected were significantly associated with increased likelihood of mortality when multivariable analysis of pre- and intraoperative variables were analysed. When all pre-, intra- and post operative variables were analysed separately, only horses that developed post operative ileus (POI) were shown to be at increased likelihood of mortality. Increased PCV, increased length of SI resected and POI are all associated with increased likelihood of mortality of EFE cases. This emphasises the importance of early diagnosis and treatment and the need for improved strategies in the management of POI in order to reduce post operative mortality in these cases. The present study provides evidence-based information to clinicians and owners of horses undergoing surgery for EFE about long-term survival. These results are applicable to university and large private clinics over a wide geographical area. © 2011 EVJ Ltd.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

Age and Other Risk Factors Influencing Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Traumatic Cervical Spine Fracture.

PubMed

Bank, Matthew; Gibbs, Katie; Sison, Cristina; Kutub, Nawshin; Paptheodorou, Angelos; Lee, Samuel; Stein, Adam; Bloom, Ona

2018-01-01

To identify clinical or demographic variables that influence long-term mortality, as well as in-hospital mortality, with a particular focus on the effects of age. Cervical spine fractures with or without spinal cord injury (SCI) disproportionately impact the elderly who constitute an increasing percentage of the US population. We analyzed data collected for 10 years at a state-designated level I trauma center to identify variables that influenced in-hospital and long-term mortality among elderly patients with traumatic cervical spine fracture with or without SCI. Acute in-hospital mortality was determined from hospital records and long-term mortality within the study period (2003-2013) was determined from the National Death Index. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify factors influencing survival. Data from patients (N = 632) with cervical spine fractures were analyzed, the majority (66%) of whom were geriatric (older than age 64). Most patients (62%) had a mild/moderate injury severity score (ISS; median, interquartile range: 6, 5). Patients with SCI had significantly longer lengths of stay (14.1 days), days on a ventilator (3.5 days), and higher ISS (14.9) than patients without SCI ( P < .0001 for all). Falls were the leading mechanism of injury for patients older than age 64. Univariate analysis identified that long-term survival decreased significantly for all patients older than age 65 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07; P < .0001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated age (HR: 1.08; P < .0001), gender (HR: 1.60; P < .0007), and SCI status (HR: 1.45, P < .02) significantly influenced survival during the study period. This study identified age, gender, and SCI status as significant variables for this study population influencing long-term survival among patients with cervical spine fractures. Our results support the growing notion that cervical spine injuries in geriatric patients with trauma may warrant additional research.

Age and Other Risk Factors Influencing Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Traumatic Cervical Spine Fracture

PubMed Central

Bank, Matthew; Gibbs, Katie; Sison, Cristina; Kutub, Nawshin; Paptheodorou, Angelos; Lee, Samuel; Stein, Adam; Bloom, Ona

2018-01-01

Objective: To identify clinical or demographic variables that influence long-term mortality, as well as in-hospital mortality, with a particular focus on the effects of age. Summary and Background Data: Cervical spine fractures with or without spinal cord injury (SCI) disproportionately impact the elderly who constitute an increasing percentage of the US population. Methods: We analyzed data collected for 10 years at a state-designated level I trauma center to identify variables that influenced in-hospital and long-term mortality among elderly patients with traumatic cervical spine fracture with or without SCI. Acute in-hospital mortality was determined from hospital records and long-term mortality within the study period (2003-2013) was determined from the National Death Index. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify factors influencing survival. Results: Data from patients (N = 632) with cervical spine fractures were analyzed, the majority (66%) of whom were geriatric (older than age 64). Most patients (62%) had a mild/moderate injury severity score (ISS; median, interquartile range: 6, 5). Patients with SCI had significantly longer lengths of stay (14.1 days), days on a ventilator (3.5 days), and higher ISS (14.9) than patients without SCI (P < .0001 for all). Falls were the leading mechanism of injury for patients older than age 64. Univariate analysis identified that long-term survival decreased significantly for all patients older than age 65 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07; P < .0001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated age (HR: 1.08; P < .0001), gender (HR: 1.60; P < .0007), and SCI status (HR: 1.45, P < .02) significantly influenced survival during the study period. Conclusion: This study identified age, gender, and SCI status as significant variables for this study population influencing long-term survival among patients with cervical spine fractures. Our results support the growing notion that cervical spine injuries in geriatric patients with trauma may warrant additional research. PMID:29760965

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN LIFE EXPECTANCIES AND PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AS WELL AS PHARMACEUTICAL AND NON-PHARMACEUTICAL HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURES.

PubMed

Hermanowski, Tomasz; Bystrov, Victor; Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna; Szafraniec-Buryło, Sylwia I; Rabczenko, Daniel; Kolasa, Katarzyna; Orlewska, Ewa

2015-01-01

Life expectancy is a common measure of population health. Macro-perspective based on aggregated data makes it possible to approximate the impact of different levels of pharmaceutical expenditure on general population health status and is often used in cross-country comparisons. The aim of the study was to determine whether there are long-run relations between life expectancy, total healthcare expenditures, and pharmaceutical expenditures in OECD countries. Common trends in per capita gross domestic products (GDPs) (excluding healthcare expenditures), per capita healthcare expenditures (excluding pharmaceutical expenditures), per capita pharmaceutical expenditures, and life expectancies of women and men aged 60 and 65 were analyzed across OECD countries. Short-term effect of pharmaceutical expenditure onto life expectancy was also estimated by regressing the deviations of life expectancies from their long-term trends onto the deviations of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical health expenditures, as well as GDP from their trends. The dataset was created on the basis of OECD Health Data for 34 countries and the years 1991-2010. Life expectancy variables were used as proxies for the health outcomes, whereas the pharmaceutical and healthcare expenditures represented drug and healthcare consumption, respectively. In general, both expenditures and life expectancies tended to increase in all of the analyzed countries; however, the growth rates differed across the countries. The analysis of common trends indicated the existence of common long-term trends in life expectancies and per capita GDP as well as pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures. However, there was no evidence that pharmaceutical expenditures provided additional information about the long-term trends in life expectancies beyond that contained in the GDP series. The analysis based on the deviations of variables from their long-term trends allowed concluding that pharmaceutical expenditures significantly influenced life expectancies in the short run. Non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures were found to be significant in one out of four models (for life expectancy of women aged 65), while GDPs were found to be insignificant in all four models. The results of the study indicate that there are common long-term trends in life expectancies and per capita GDP as well as pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures. The available data did not reveal any cause- effect relationship. Other factors, for which the systematic data were not available, may have determined the increase in life expectancy in OECD countries. Significant positive short-term relations between pharmaceutical expenditures and life expectancies in OECD countries were found. The significant short-term effect of pharmaceutical expenditures onto life expectancy means that an increase of pharmaceutical expenditures above long-term trends would lead to a temporary increase in life expectancy above its corresponding long-term trend. However, this effect would not persist as pharmaceutical expenditures and life expectancy would converge to levels determined by the long-term trends.

Geocoronal hydrogen studies using Fabry Perot interferometers, part 2: Long-term observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nossal, S. M.; Mierkiewicz, E. J.; Roesler, F. L.; Reynolds, R. J.; Haffner, L. M.

2006-09-01

Long-term data sets are required to investigate sources of natural variability in the upper atmosphere. Understanding the influence of sources of natural variability such as the solar cycle is needed to characterize the thermosphere + exosphere, to understand coupling processes between atmospheric regions, and to isolate signatures of natural variability from those due to human-caused change. Multi-year comparisons of thermospheric + exospheric Balmer α emissions require cross-calibrated and well-understood instrumentation, a stable calibration source, reproducible observing conditions, separation of the terrestrial from the Galactic emission line, and consistent data analysis accounting for differences in viewing geometry. We discuss how we address these criteria in the acquisition and analysis of a mid-latitude geocoronal Balmer α column emission data set now spanning two solar cycles and taken mainly from Wisconsin and Kitt Peak, Arizona. We also discuss results and outstanding challenges for increasing the accuracy and use of these observations.

Homogeneous data-reprocessing and full synthesis of eddy-flux measurements in French terrestrial ecosytems : 1999 - 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreaux, V.; Ceschia, E.; Delpierre, N.; Dufrêne, E.; Joffre, R.; Klumpp, K.; Berveiller, D.; Loustau, D.; Limousin, J. M.; Ourcival, J. M.; Brut, A.; Darsonville, O.; Lafont, S.; Piquemal, K.; Longdoz, B.

2017-12-01

The attribution of the significant inter-annual variability of long lived greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, between edaphic, meteorological variables and ecosystem management parameters - independently or in interaction, evolving as a long term drift or as extreme events - remains uncertain. Our research aims to quantify the potential impact of climatic drifts or anthropogenic and meteorological events on ecosystem-atmosphere exchanges of French sites by analyzing the long series (at least continuous 9 years, between 1996 and 2015) of eddy covariance (EC) fluxes. We firstly performed a homogeneously repost-processing of the raw EC data across 5 sites: three forest ecosystems (deciduous broad-leaved FR-Fon, evergreen broadleaved FR-Pue, and evergreen coniferous FR-Br), one extensive grassland (FR-Lq2) and one cropland (FR-Aur). These data, in terms of net ecosystem exchanges (NEE), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were put together with the corresponding climatic and edaphic data and with the carbon stock inventory for an homogeneous statistical analysis and comparative interpretations. The standard protocol, excluding any Nakai's corrections, helped to reduce the influence of the methodology and experimental design on the temporal and spatial variability. The methodology adopted finally used 35% on average of flux data for all sites. Based on the first analysis of reprocessed data from the forests, no significant long term evolution of NEE, Reco and GPP through the studied periods despite [CO2] increase and long term change observed in environmental parameters. Combining all years, a respiration limitation at high air temperature was observed on the forest sites, with a LAI dependency for deciduous ecosystems, and REW dependency for evergreen southern sites. A dominant effect of air vapor stress, compared to edaphic stress was observed on GPP response to PPFD in the deciduous northern forest, significantly decreasing with VPD increase.

The value of long-term stream invertebrate data collected by citizen scientists

Treesearch

Patrick M. Edwards; Stefano Goffredo

2016-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to systematically examine the variability associated with temporally-oriented invertebrate data collected by citizen scientists and consider the value of such data for use in stream management. Variability in invertebrate data was estimated for three sources of variation: sampling, within-reach spatial and long-term temporal. Long-...

Monthly and seasonal variability of the land-atmosphere system

Treesearch

Yong-Qiang Liu

2003-01-01

The land surface and the atmosphere can interact with each other through exchanges of energy, water, and momentum. With the capacity of long memory, land surface processes can contribute to long-term variability of atmospheric processes. Great efforts have been made in the past three decades to study land-atmosphere interactions and their importance to long-term...

Long-term variability and changes in thunderstorm induced extreme precipitation in Slovakia over 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Faško, P.; Bližák, V.; Kajaba, P.; Košálová, J.; Bochníček, O.; Lešková, L.

2012-04-01

It is well known that extreme precipitation associated with intensive rains, in summer induced mostly by local thunderstorm activity, could cause very significant problems in economical and social spheres of the countries. Heavy precipitation and consecutive flash-floods are the most serious weather-related hazards over the territory of Slovakia. The extreme precipitation analyses play a strategic role in many climatological and hydrological evaluations designed for the wide range of technical and engineering applications as well as climate change impact assessments. A thunderstorm, as a violent local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and accompanied by thunder and lightning, represents extreme convective activity in the atmosphere depending upon the release of latent heat, by the condensation of water vapor, for most of its energy. Under the natural conditions of Slovakia the incidence of thunderstorms has been traditionally concentrated in the summer or warm half-year (Apr.-Sept.), but increasing air temperature resulting in higher water vapor content and more intense short-term precipitation is associated with more frequent thunderstorm occurrence in early spring as well as autumn. It is the main reason why the studies of thunderstorm phenomena have increased in Slovakia in recent years. It was found that thunderstorm occurrence, in terms of incidence of storm days, has profoundly changed particularly in spring season (~ 30 % in April and May). The present contribution is devoted to verifying the hypothesis that recently the precipitation has been more intense and significant shifts in seasonal incidence have occurred in particular regions in Slovakia. On the basis of the 60-year (1951-2010) meteorological observation series obtained from more than 20 synoptic stations, the analysis of trends and long-term variability of the days with thunderstorms and the accompanying precipitation for seasons was undertaken. Contribution also attempts to explain the main causes of the thunderstorm as well as extreme precipitation variability. Furthermore, differentiation of daily sums of precipitation for the days with thunderstorms, their long-term variability and probability of occurrence is also presented. Key words: thunderstorm occurrence, trend analysis, extreme precipitation, day with thunderstorm, climate change, climate variability, Slovakia

When Changing from Merit Pay to Variable/Bonus Pay: What Do Employees Want?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Jeremy B.; Donohue, Joan M.

2004-01-01

This study examines potential responses to a change in an employee reward system from permanent merit pay increases to one-time bonus payments. Removing long term risks associated with escalating pay is an increasingly common compensation strategy. Often overlooked, however, are employee perceptions of reward fairness under such conditions of…

Development of episodic and autobiographical memory: The importance of remembering forgetting

PubMed Central

Bauer, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

Some memories of the events of our lives have a long shelf-life—they remain accessible to recollection even after long delays. Yet many other of our experiences are forgotten, sometimes very soon after they take place. In spite of the prevalence of forgetting, theories of the development of episodic and autobiographical memory largely ignore it as a potential source of variance in explanation of age-related variability in long-term recall. They focus instead on what may be viewed as positive developmental changes, that is, changes that result in improvements in the quality of memory representations that are formed. The purpose of this review is to highlight the role of forgetting as an important variable in understanding the development of episodic and autobiographical memory. Forgetting processes are implicated as a source of variability in long-term recall due to the protracted course of development of the neural substrate responsible for transformation of fleeting experiences into memory traces that can be integrated into long-term stores and retrieved at later points in time. It is logical to assume that while the substrate is developing, neural processing is relatively inefficient and ineffective, resulting in loss of information from memory (i.e., forgetting). For this reason, focus on developmental increases in the quality of representations of past events and experiences will tell only a part of the story of how memory develops. A more complete account is afforded when we also consider changes in forgetting. PMID:26644633

Long-term limnological data from the larger lakes of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theriot, E.C.; Fritz, S.C.; Gresswell, Robert E.

1997-01-01

Long-term limnological data from the four largest lakes in Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone, Lewis, Shoshone, Heart) are used to characterize their limnology and patterns of temporal and spatial variability. Heart Lake has distinctively high concentrations of dissolved materials, apparently reflecting high thermal inputs. Shoshone and Lewis lakes have the highest total SiO2 concentrations (averaging over 23.5 mg L-1), apparently as a result of the rhyolitic drainage basins. Within Yellowstone Lake spatial variability is low and ephemeral for most measured variables, except that the Southeast Arm has lower average Na concentrations. Seasonal variation is evident for Secchi transparency, pH, and total-SiO2 and probably reflects seasonal changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity. Total dissolved solids (TDS) and total-SiO2 generally show a gradual decline from the mid-1970s through mid-1980s, followed by a sharp increase. Ratios of Kjeldahl-N to total-PO4 (KN:TP) suggest that the lakes, especially Shoshone, are often nitrogen limited. Kjeldahl-N is positively correlated with winter precipitation, but TP and total-SiO2 are counterintuitively negatively correlated with precipitation. We speculate that increased winter precipitation, rather than watershed fires, increases N-loading which, in turn, leads to increased demand for TP and total SiO2.

Long-Term Study of Heart Rate Variability Responses to Changes in the Solar and Geomagnetic Environment.

PubMed

Alabdulgader, Abdullah; McCraty, Rollin; Atkinson, Michael; Dobyns, York; Vainoras, Alfonsas; Ragulskis, Minvydas; Stolc, Viktor

2018-02-08

This long-term study examined relationships between solar and magnetic factors and the time course and lags of autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses to changes in solar and geomagnetic activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) was recorded for 72 consecutive hours each week over a five-month period in 16 participants in order to examine ANS responses during normal background environmental periods. HRV measures were correlated with solar and geomagnetic variables using multivariate linear regression analysis with Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons after removing circadian influences from both datasets. Overall, the study confirms that daily ANS activity responds to changes in geomagnetic and solar activity during periods of normal undisturbed activity and it is initiated at different times after the changes in the various environmental factors and persist over varying time periods. Increase in solar wind intensity was correlated with increases in heart rate, which we interpret as a biological stress response. Increase in cosmic rays, solar radio flux, and Schumann resonance power was all associated with increased HRV and parasympathetic activity. The findings support the hypothesis that energetic environmental phenomena affect psychophysical processes that can affect people in different ways depending on their sensitivity, health status and capacity for self-regulation.

Unveiling the physics of AGN through X-ray variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-García, L.; González-Martín, O.; Masegosa, J.; Márquez, I.

2017-03-01

Although variability is a general property characterizing active galactic nuclei (AGN), it is not well established whether the changes occur in the same way in every nuclei. The main purpose of this work is to study the X-ray variability pattern(s) in AGN selected at optical wavelengths in a large sample, including low ionization nuclear emission line regions (LINERs) and type 1.8, 1.9, and 2 Seyferts, using the public archives in Chandra and/or XMM-Newton. Spectra of the same source gathered at different epochs were simultaneously fitted to study long term variations; the variability patterns were studied allowing different parameters to vary during the spectral fit. Whenever possible, short term variations from the analysis of the light curves and long term UV flux variability were studied. Variations at X-rays in timescales of months/years are very common in all AGN families but short term variations are only found in type 1.8 and 1.9 Seyferts. The main driver of the long term X-ray variations seems to be related to changes in the nuclear power. Other variability patterns cannot be discarded in a few cases. We discuss the geometry and physics of AGN through the X-ray variability analysis.

Long-Term Spectral Variability of the Spotted Star IN Com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, I. Yu.; Kozlova, O. V.; Gorda, S. Yu.; Avvakumova, E. A.; Kozhevnikova, A. V.

2017-06-01

We present long-term (2004-2016) spectral observations (R = 20000) of IN Com in the regions of Hα, Hβ and He I 5876 Å lines. The unique feature of the stellar spectrum is the presence of the extended two-component emission with limits up to ± 400 km s-1 in the Hα line. Emission parameters show the rotation modulation with the stellar rotation period and a significant variability on the long-term scale. Similar emission is also observed in Hβ and He I 5876 Å lines. Our results allow us to conclude that observational emission profiles are formed in optically thin hot gas. It is a result of presence of a circumstellar gas disk around IN Com. Its size is not exceed several stellar radii. The matter for the disk is supported by stellar wind. Detected variability of Hα emission parameters shows evident relation with UBVRI photometric activity of the star. This fact allowed us to link the long-term spectral variability with cycles of stellar activity of IN Com.

Hydrological and environmental variables outperform spatial factors in structuring species, trait composition, and beta diversity of pelagic algae.

PubMed

Wu, Naicheng; Qu, Yueming; Guse, Björn; Makarevičiūtė, Kristė; To, Szewing; Riis, Tenna; Fohrer, Nicola

2018-03-01

There has been increasing interest in algae-based bioassessment, particularly, trait-based approaches are increasingly suggested. However, the main drivers, especially the contribution of hydrological variables, of species composition, trait composition, and beta diversity of algae communities are less studied. To link species and trait composition to multiple factors (i.e., hydrological variables, local environmental variables, and spatial factors) that potentially control species occurrence/abundance and to determine their relative roles in shaping species composition, trait composition, and beta diversities of pelagic algae communities, samples were collected from a German lowland catchment, where a well-proven ecohydrological modeling enabled to predict long-term discharges at each sampling site. Both trait and species composition showed significant correlations with hydrological, environmental, and spatial variables, and variation partitioning revealed that the hydrological and local environmental variables outperformed spatial variables. A higher variation of trait composition (57.0%) than species composition (37.5%) could be explained by abiotic factors. Mantel tests showed that both species and trait-based beta diversities were mostly related to hydrological and environmental heterogeneity with hydrological contributing more than environmental variables, while purely spatial impact was less important. Our findings revealed the relative importance of hydrological variables in shaping pelagic algae community and their spatial patterns of beta diversities, emphasizing the need to include hydrological variables in long-term biomonitoring campaigns and biodiversity conservation or restoration. A key implication for biodiversity conservation was that maintaining the instream flow regime and keeping various habitats among rivers are of vital importance. However, further investigations at multispatial and temporal scales are greatly needed.

Acute kidney injury and disease: Long-Term consequences and management.

PubMed

Rangaswamy, Dharshan; Sud, Kamal

2018-05-27

With increasing longevity and presence of multiple co-morbidities, a significant proportion of hospitalized patients and an even larger population in the community is at increased risk for developing an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI). Because of improvements in short term outcomes following an episode of AKI, survivors of an episode of AKI are now predisposed to develop its long-term sequel. Identification of risk for progression to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by the absence of good biomarkers that identify this risk and the variability of risk associated with clinical factors including, but not limited to number of AKI episodes, severity, duration of previous AKI and pre-existing chronic kidney disease that has made prediction for long-term outcomes in survivors of AKI more difficult. Being a significant contributor for the growing incidence of CKD, there is a need to implement measures to prevent AKI both in the community and hospital settings, target interventions to treat AKI that are also associated with better long-term outcomes, accurately identify patients at risk for adverse consequences following an episode of AKI and institute therapeutic strategies to improve these long-term outcomes. We discuss the lasting renal and non-renal consequences following an episode of AKI, available biomarkers and non-invasive testing to identify ongoing intra-renal pathology and review the currently available and future treatment strategies to help reduce these adverse long-term outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

2015-07-01

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

Financial Factors and Institutional Characteristics That Relate to the Long-Term Debt of U.S. Four-Year Public Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keith, Dana Sims

2013-01-01

Debt for public colleges and universities has been increasing while financial resources, which provide the support to repay debt, have been declining. As debt increases in proportion to assets, the risk profile of a college or university increases. This study examined the relationships between financial variables and institutional characteristics…

Associations between long-term exposure to chemical constituents of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality in Medicare enrollees in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Dominici, Francesca; Wang, Yun; Coull, Brent A; Bell, Michelle L

2015-05-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with higher mortality. Evidence regarding contributions of PM2.5 constituents is inconclusive. We assembled a data set of 12.5 million Medicare enrollees (≥ 65 years of age) to determine which PM2.5 constituents are a) associated with mortality controlling for previous-year PM2.5 total mass (main effect); and b) elevated in locations exhibiting stronger associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (effect modification). For 518 PM2.5 monitoring locations (eastern United States, 2000-2006), we calculated monthly mortality rates, monthly long-term (previous 1-year average) PM2.5, and 7-year averages (2000-2006) of major PM2.5 constituents [elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon matter (OCM), sulfate (SO42-), silicon (Si), nitrate (NO3-), and sodium (Na)] and community-level variables. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate location-specific mortality rates associated with previous-year PM2.5 (model level 1) and identify constituents that contributed to the spatial variability of mortality, and constituents that modified associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (model level 2), controlling for community-level confounders. One-standard deviation (SD) increases in 7-year average EC, Si, and NO3- concentrations were associated with 1.3% [95% posterior interval (PI): 0.3, 2.2], 1.4% (95% PI: 0.6, 2.4), and 1.2% (95% PI: 0.4, 2.1) increases in monthly mortality, controlling for previous-year PM2.5. Associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality were stronger in combination with 1-SD increases in SO42- and Na. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 and several constituents were associated with mortality in the elderly population of the eastern United States. Moreover, some constituents increased the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality. These results provide new evidence that chemical composition can partly explain the differential toxicity of PM2.5.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

PubMed

Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

2018-05-16

To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Climate effects on phytoplankton floral composition in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, L. W.; Adolf, J. E.; Mallonee, M. E.; Miller, W. D.; Gallegos, C. L.; Perry, E. S.; Johnson, J. M.; Sellner, K. G.; Paerl, H. W.

2015-09-01

Long-term data on floral composition of phytoplankton are presented to document seasonal and inter-annual variability in Chesapeake Bay related to climate effects on hydrology. Source data consist of the abundances of major taxonomic groups of phytoplankton derived from algal photopigments (1995-2004) and cell counts (1985-2007). Algal photopigments were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and analyzed using the software CHEMTAX to determine the proportions of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in major taxonomic groups. Cell counts determined microscopically provided species identifications, enumeration, and dimensions used to obtain proportions of cell volume (CV), plasma volume (PV), and carbon (C) in the same taxonomic groups. We drew upon these two independent data sets to take advantage of the unique strengths of each method, using comparable quantitative measures to express floral composition for the main stem bay. Spatial and temporal variability of floral composition was quantified using data aggregated by season, year, and salinity zone. Both time-series were sufficiently long to encompass the drought-flood cycle with commensurate effects on inputs of freshwater and solutes. Diatoms emerged as the predominant taxonomic group, with significant contributions by dinoflagellates, cryptophytes, and cyanobacteria, depending on salinity zone and season. Our analyses revealed increased abundance of diatoms in wet years compared to long-term average (LTA) or dry years. Results are presented in the context of long-term nutrient over-enrichment of the bay, punctuated by inter-annual variability of freshwater flow that strongly affects nutrient loading, chl-a, and floral composition. Statistical analyses generated flow-adjusted diatom abundance and showed significant trends late in the time series, suggesting current and future decreases of nutrient inputs may lead to a reduction of the proportion of biomass comprised by diatoms in an increasingly diverse flora.

Long-term MODIS observations of cyanobacterial dynamics in Lake Taihu: Responses to nutrient enrichment and meteorological factors

PubMed Central

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Xiaohan; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Gao, Guang

2017-01-01

We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu. PMID:28074871

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Mai, Trieu T.

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Powermore » Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.« less

Contraceptive method choice among women in slum and non-slum communities in Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochako, Rhoune; Izugbara, Chimaraoke; Okal, Jerry; Askew, Ian; Temmerman, Marleen

2016-07-12

Understanding women's contraceptive method choices is key to enhancing family planning services provision and programming. Currently however, very little research has addressed inter and intra-regional disparities in women's contraceptive method choice. Using data from slum and non-slum contexts in Nairobi, Kenya, the current study investigates the prevalence of and factors associated with contraceptive method choice among women. Data were from a cross-sectional quantitative study conducted among a random sample of 1,873 women (aged 15-49 years) in two non-slum and two slum settlement areas in Nairobi, Kenya. The study locations were purposively sampled by virtue of being part of the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to explore the association between the outcome variable, contraceptive method choice, and explanatory variables. The prevalence of contraceptive method choice was relatively similar across slum and non-slum settlements. 34.3 % of women in slum communities and 28.1 % of women in non-slum communities reported using short-term methods. Slightly more women living in the non-slum settlements reported use of long-term methods, 9.2 %, compared to 3.6 % in slum communities. Older women were less likely to use short-term methods than their younger counterparts but more likely to use long-term methods. Currently married women were more likely than never married women to use short-term and long-term methods. Compared to those with no children, women with three or more children were more likely to report using long term methods. Women working outside the home or those in formal employment also used modern methods of contraception more than those in self-employment or unemployed. Use of short-term and long-term methods is generally low among women living in slum and non-slum contexts in Nairobi. Investments in increasing women's access to various contraceptive options are urgently needed to help increase contraceptive prevalence rate. Thus, interventions that focus on more disadvantaged segments of the population will accelerate contraceptive uptake and improve maternal and child health in Kenya.

Long-term nitrogen addition affects the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial community responding to moisture pulse

DOE PAGES

Liu, Chi; Yao, Minjie; Stegen, James C.; ...

2017-12-13

How press disturbance (long-term) influences the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial communities responding to pulse disturbances (short-term) is not fully known. Understanding the complex connections between the history of environmental conditions, assembly processes and microbial community dynamics is necessary to predict microbial response to perturbation. Here, we started by investigating phylogenetic spatial turnover (based on DNA) of soil prokaryotic communities after long-term nitrogen (N) deposition and temporal turnover (based on RNA) of communities responding to pulse by conducting short-term rewetting experiments. The results showed that moderate N addition increased ecological stochasticity and phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, high N addition slightlymore » increased homogeneous selection and decreased phylogenetic diversity. Examining the system with higher phylogenetic resolution revealed a moderate contribution of variable selection across the whole N gradient. The moisture pulse experiment showed that high N soils had higher rates of phylogenetic turnover across short phylogenetic distances and significant changes in community compositions through time. Long-term N input history influenced spatial turnover of microbial communities, but the dominant community assembly mechanisms differed across different N deposition gradients. We further revealed an interaction between press and pulse disturbances whereby deterministic processes were particularly important following pulse disturbances in high N soils.« less

Long-term nitrogen addition affects the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial community responding to moisture pulse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chi; Yao, Minjie; Stegen, James C.

How press disturbance (long-term) influences the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial communities responding to pulse disturbances (short-term) is not fully known. Understanding the complex connections between the history of environmental conditions, assembly processes and microbial community dynamics is necessary to predict microbial response to perturbation. Here, we started by investigating phylogenetic spatial turnover (based on DNA) of soil prokaryotic communities after long-term nitrogen (N) deposition and temporal turnover (based on RNA) of communities responding to pulse by conducting short-term rewetting experiments. The results showed that moderate N addition increased ecological stochasticity and phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, high N addition slightlymore » increased homogeneous selection and decreased phylogenetic diversity. Examining the system with higher phylogenetic resolution revealed a moderate contribution of variable selection across the whole N gradient. The moisture pulse experiment showed that high N soils had higher rates of phylogenetic turnover across short phylogenetic distances and significant changes in community compositions through time. Long-term N input history influenced spatial turnover of microbial communities, but the dominant community assembly mechanisms differed across different N deposition gradients. We further revealed an interaction between press and pulse disturbances whereby deterministic processes were particularly important following pulse disturbances in high N soils.« less

Long-term nitrogen addition affects the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial community responding to moisture pulse.

PubMed

Liu, Chi; Yao, Minjie; Stegen, James C; Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Li, Xiangzhen

2017-12-13

How press disturbance (long-term) influences the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial communities responding to pulse disturbances (short-term) is not fully known. Understanding the complex connections between the history of environmental conditions, assembly processes and microbial community dynamics is necessary to predict microbial response to perturbation. We started by investigating phylogenetic spatial turnover (based on DNA) of soil prokaryotic communities after long-term nitrogen (N) deposition and temporal turnover (based on RNA) of communities responding to pulse by conducting short-term rewetting experiments. The results showed that moderate N addition increased ecological stochasticity and phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, high N addition slightly increased homogeneous selection and decreased phylogenetic diversity. Examining the system with higher phylogenetic resolution revealed a moderate contribution of variable selection across the whole N gradient. The moisture pulse experiment showed that high N soils had higher rates of phylogenetic turnover across short phylogenetic distances and significant changes in community compositions through time. Long-term N input history influenced spatial turnover of microbial communities, but the dominant community assembly mechanisms differed across different N deposition gradients. We further revealed an interaction between press and pulse disturbances whereby deterministic processes were particularly important following pulse disturbances in high N soils.

Concentration-discharge relationships for variably sized streams in Florida: Patterns and drivers in long-term catchment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diamond, J.; Cohen, M.

2012-12-01

Catchment-scale analyses can provide important insight into the processes governing solute sources, transport and storage. Understanding solute dynamics is vital for water management both for accurate predictions of chemical fluxes as well as ecosystem responses to them. This project synthesized long-term (>15 years) hydrochemical data from 80 variably sized (101-105 m2) watersheds in Florida. Our goal was to evaluate scaling effects on flow-solute relationships, and determine the factors that control observed inter-catchment variation. We obtained long term records of a variety of chemical parameters include color, nutrients (N and P), and geogenic solutes (Ca, Si, Mg, Na, Cl) from stations where chemistry and flow data were matched. Catchment attributes (land use, terrain, surface geology) were obtained for each stream as potential covariates. Concentration-discharge relationships were modeled as power functions, the exponents (b) of which were categorized into three end-member scenarios: (1) b>0, or chemodynamic conditions, where increased discharge increases concentration, (2) b=0, or chemostatic conditions, where concentration is independent of discharge, and (3) b<0, or dilution conditions, where increased discharge decreases concentrations. Color was strongly chemodynamic, while geogenic solutes tended to be chemostatic;nutrient-flow relationships varied substantially (from dilution to chemodynamic) suggesting important ancillary controls. To assess between-site variability, power function exponents were compared against land use and catchment area. These results indicate that watersheds dominated by urban land use exhibit stronger dilution effects for most solutes while watersheds dominated by agricultural land use were generally chemostatic particularly for nutrients. This synthesis approach to understanding controls on observed concentration-discharge relationships is crucial to understanding the dynamics and early-warning indicators of anthropogenically-induced transition from dilution to chemostatic behavior.

Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

PubMed

Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-09-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Long-term Radiation Budget Variability in the Northern Eurasian Region: Assessing the Interaction with Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, P. W.; Soja, A. J.; Zhang, T.; Mikovitz, J. C.

2013-12-01

In terms of global change, boreal regions are particularly important, because significant warming and change are already evident and significant future warming is predicted. Mean global air temperature has increased by 0.74°C in the last century, and temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.8°C to 4°C by 2090, depending on the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario. Some of the greatest temperature increases are currently found in the Northern Eurasian winter and spring, which has led to longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration and extreme fire weather [Groisman et al., 2007]. In the Siberian Sayan, winter temperatures have already exceeded a 2090 Hadley Centre scenario (HadCM3GGa1) [Soja et al., 2007]. There is evidence of climate-induced change across the circumboreal in terms of increased infestations, alterations in vegetation and increased fire regimes (area burned, fire frequency, severity and number of extreme fire seasons). In this paper, we analyzed long-term surface radiation data sets from the NASA/GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Surface Radiation Budget data products, CERES Surface EBAF and SYN data products and also the available surface radiation measurements in the region. First, we show that during overlap years SRB and CERES data products agree very well in terms of anomalies and we'll use this fact to evaluate 30 years of satellite based estimates of the variability of downwelling SW parameters first corresponding to locations of surface measurements and then for the region as a whole. We also show the observed variability of other SW components such as the net SW and the albedo. Next we assess the variability of the downward and LW fluxes over time and compare these to variability observed in the surface temperature and other meteorological measurements. We assess anomalies on various spatial scales. Finally, we assess the correlation of this variability in specific locations to known fire events. Extreme fires burned in Sakha and Tuva in 2002 and 2004, respectively, and in contrast, a normal fire season burned in Sakha and Tuva in 1999 and 2002, respectively. For this reason, we focus on the fire season (April - September) for 1999, 2002, and 2004. We assess these data sets for evidence of relationships between the net radiative fluxes and fire onset as well as evidence for residual influence of the fires upon the radiative budgets.

Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.

PubMed

Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

2013-10-01

Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

The Control of Single-color and Multiple-color Visual Search by Attentional Templates in Working Memory and in Long-term Memory.

PubMed

Grubert, Anna; Carlisle, Nancy B; Eimer, Martin

2016-12-01

The question whether target selection in visual search can be effectively controlled by simultaneous attentional templates for multiple features is still under dispute. We investigated whether multiple-color attentional guidance is possible when target colors remain constant and can thus be represented in long-term memory but not when they change frequently and have to be held in working memory. Participants searched for one, two, or three possible target colors that were specified by cue displays at the start of each trial. In constant-color blocks, the same colors remained task-relevant throughout. In variable-color blocks, target colors changed between trials. The contralateral delay activity (CDA) to cue displays increased in amplitude as a function of color memory load in variable-color blocks, which indicates that cued target colors were held in working memory. In constant-color blocks, the CDA was much smaller, suggesting that color representations were primarily stored in long-term memory. N2pc components to targets were measured as a marker of attentional target selection. Target N2pcs were attenuated and delayed during multiple-color search, demonstrating less efficient attentional deployment to color-defined target objects relative to single-color search. Importantly, these costs were the same in constant-color and variable-color blocks. These results demonstrate that attentional guidance by multiple-feature as compared with single-feature templates is less efficient both when target features remain constant and can be represented in long-term memory and when they change across trials and therefore have to be maintained in working memory.

River-discharge variability and trends in southeastern Central Andes since 1940

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-04-01

The southern Central Andes in NW Argentina comprise small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) particularly sensitive to climate variability. In this area and in contrast to larger drainage basins such as the Amazon or La Plata rivers, floodplains or groundwater reservoirs either do not exist or are small. This reduces their dampening effect on discharge variability. Previous studies highlighted a rapid discharge increase up to 40% in seven years in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. To better understand the processes that drive variations in river discharge in this region, we analyze discharge variability on different timescales, relying on four time series of monthly discharge between 1940 and 2015. Since river discharge in this complex mountain environment results in a pronounced non-stationary and non-linear character, we apply the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be decomposed in four quasi-periodic, statistically significant oscillatory modes, associated with timescales varying from 1 to ˜20y. In addition, statistically significant long-term trends show increasing discharge during the period between 1940 and 2015, documenting an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. Furthermore, time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) analysis shows that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (˜20y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (˜2-5y). Finally, our results suggest that the rapid discharge increased occurred during the 1970s coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge mainly linked to the rise of the PDO oscillation from the negative to the positive phase in superposition with the long-term increasing trend, further modulated by TSA variability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishop, L.; Hill, W.J.

A method is proposed to estimate the effect of long-term variations in total ozone on the error incurred in determining a trend in total ozone due to man-made effects. When this method is applied to data from Arosa, Switzerland over the years 1932--1980, a component of the standard error of the trend estimate equal to 0.6 percent per decade is obtained. If this estimate of long-term trend variability at Arosa is not too different from global long-term trend variability, then the threshold ( +- 2 standard errors) for detecting an ozone trend in the 1970's that is outside of whatmore » could be expected from natural variation alone and hence be man-made would range from 1.35% (Reinsel et al, 1981) to 1.8%. The latter value is obtained by combining the Reinsel et al result with the result here, assuming that the error variations that both studies measure are independent and additive. Estimates for long-term trend variation over other time periods are also derived. Simulations that measure the precision of the estimate of long-term variability are reported.« less

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

Effects of family caregivers on the use of formal long-term care in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, E-Y; Cho, E; Lee, N-J

2013-12-01

We investigated whether the presence and characteristics of a family caregiver affect the use of formal long-term care under the new Korean long-term care system. In July 2008, Korea introduced public long-term care insurance, a form of social insurance, in order to cope with the reality of the growing elderly population and the increasing demand for long-term care. The family caregivers of 271 applicants for long-term care insurance who had a caregiver and 36 applicants without a caregiver living in one city participated in this cross-sectional study. Data were collected from November 2010 to June 2011 using self-report questionnaires. Variables included the applicant's gender; age; physical and cognitive function; type of long-term care used; presence and type of family caregivers; caregiver's gender, age, education level, marital status, and employment status; and service use covered by long-term care insurance. Logistic multiple regression was used. The effect of the presence and characteristics of a family caregiver on the use of a long-term care facility was significant. A nursing home was used for care more frequently when the applicant had no family caregiver. An elderly subject who had a spouse as a caregiver used home healthcare services more often than nursing home services. The decision to use formal services may depend not only on the care level required by the applicant, but also on the presence and type of caregivers. To successfully implement the new long-term care insurance system, consideration of the caregiver situation should be included in policy development. © 2013 International Council of Nurses.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Herbivory and drought generate short-term stochasticity and long-term stability in a savanna understory community.

PubMed

Riginos, Corinna; Porensky, Lauren M; Veblen, Kari E; Young, Truman P

2018-03-01

Rainfall and herbivory are fundamental drivers of grassland plant dynamics, yet few studies have examined long-term interactions between these factors in an experimental setting. Understanding such interactions is important, as rainfall is becoming increasingly erratic and native wild herbivores are being replaced by livestock. Livestock grazing and episodic low rainfall are thought to interact, leading to greater community change than either factor alone. We examined patterns of change and stability in herbaceous community composition through four dry periods, or droughts, over 15 years of the Kenya Long-term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), which consists of six different combinations of cattle, native wild herbivores (e.g., zebras, gazelles), and mega-herbivores (giraffes, elephants). We used principal response curves to analyze the trajectory of change in each herbivore treatment relative to a common initial community and asked how droughts contributed to community change in these treatments. We examined three measures of stability (resistance, variability, and turnover) that correspond to different temporal scales and found that each had a different response to grazing. Treatments that included both cattle and wild herbivores had higher resistance (less net change over 15 years) but were more variable on shorter time scales; in contrast, the more lightly grazed treatments (no herbivores or wild herbivores only) showed lower resistance due to the accumulation of consistent, linear, short-term change. Community change was greatest during and immediately after droughts in all herbivore treatments. But, while drought contributed to directional change in the less grazed treatments, it contributed to both higher variability and resistance in the more heavily grazed treatments. Much of the community change in lightly grazed treatments (especially after droughts) was due to substantial increases in cover of the palatable grass Brachiaria lachnantha. These results illustrate how herbivory and drought can act together to cause change in grassland communities at the moderate to low end of a grazing intensity continuum. Livestock grazing at a moderate intensity in a system with a long evolutionary history of grazing contributed to long-term stability. This runs counter to often-held assumptions that livestock grazing leads to directional, destabilizing shifts in grassland systems. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions. PMID:27532008

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

PubMed

Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

2015-03-19

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

The long-term variability of Changma in the East Asian summer monsoon system: A review and revisit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, June-Yi; Kwon, MinHo; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, In-Hong; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jin, Emilia Kyung; Kim, Joo-Hong; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Kim, WonMoo; Yim, So-Young; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2017-05-01

Changma, which is a vital part of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system, plays a critical role in modulating water and energy cycles in Korea. Better understanding of its long-term variability and change is therefore a matter of scientific and societal importance. It has been indicated that characteristics of Changma have undergone significant interdecadal changes in association with the mid-1970s global-scale climate shift and the mid-1990s EASM shift. This paper reviews and revisits the characteristics on the long-term changes of Changma focusing on the underlying mechanisms for the changes. The four important features are manifested mainly during the last few decades: 1) mean and extreme rainfalls during Changma period from June to September have been increased with the amplification of diurnal cycle of rainfall, 2) the dry spell between the first and second rainy periods has become shorter, 3) the rainfall amount as well as the number of rainy days during August have significantly increased, probably due to the increase in typhoon landfalls, and 4) the relationship between the Changma rainfall and Western Pacific Subtropical High on interannual time scale has been enhanced. The typhoon contribution to the increase in heavy rainfall is attributable to enhanced interaction between typhoons and midlatitude baroclinic environment. It is noted that the change in the relationship between Changma and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans is a key factor in the long-term changes of Changma and EASM. Possible sources for the recent mid-1990s change include 1) the tropical dipole-like SST pattern between the central Pacific and Indo-Pacific region (the global warming hiatus pattern), 2) the recent intensification of tropical SST gradients among the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific, and the eastern Pacific, and 3) the tropical Atlantic SST warming.

Tropospheric ozone long term trend observed by lidar and ECC ozonesondes at Observatoire de Haute Provence, Southern France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.

Long-term variability of the siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and M. kochi in the Western English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackett, Michael; Licandro, Priscilla; Coombs, Steve H.; Lucas, Cathy H.

2014-11-01

We investigated long-term variability of the calycophoran siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and Muggiaea kochi in the Western English Channel (WEC) between 1930 and 2011. Our aims were to describe long-term changes in abundance and temporal distribution in relation to local environmental dynamics. In order to better understand mechanisms that regulate the species' populations, we identified periods that were characteristic of in situ population growth and the environmental optima associated with these events. Our results show that between 1930 and the 1960s both M. atlantica and M. kochi were transient components of the WEC ecosystem. In the late 1960s M. atlantica, successfully established a resident population in the WEC, while the occurrence of M. kochi became increasingly sporadic. Once established as a resident species, the seasonal abundance and distribution of M. atlantica increased. Analysis of environmental conditions associated with in situ population growth revealed that temperature and prey were key determinants of the seasonal distribution and abundance of M. atlantica. Salinity was shown to have an indirect effect, likely representing a proxy for water circulation in the WEC. Anomalies in the seasonal cycle of salinity, indicating deviation from the usual circulation pattern in the WEC, were negatively associated with in situ growth, suggesting dispersal of the locally developing M. atlantica population. However, our findings identified complexity in the relationship between characteristics of the environment and M. atlantica variability. The transition from a period of transiency (1930-1968) to residency (1969-2011) was tentatively attributed to structural changes in the WEC ecosystem that occurred under the forcing of wider-scale hydroclimatic changes.

[Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

PubMed

Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

2008-10-04

Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

PubMed

Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

2016-04-01

The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2015-01-01

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

Evaluation of the use of oseltamivir prophylaxis in the control of influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Alberta, Canada: a retrospective provincial database analysis

PubMed Central

Ye, Ming; Jacobs, Angela; Khan, Muhammad Naeem; Jaipaul, Joy; Oda, Joanna; Johnson, Marcia; Doroshenko, Alexander

2016-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the impact of oseltamivir prophylaxis in the management and control of influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Alberta, Canada. Setting and participants Long-term care facilities where 127 influenza outbreaks were reported to public health authorities in Alberta, Canada, during two influenza seasons from 2013 to 2015. Design and outcome measures Using routinely collected surveillance and administrative data, we examined the association between decision-making time for oseltamivir recommendation as prophylaxis strategy for influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (explanatory variable) and the duration of an influenza outbreak, the postprophylaxis risk of influenza-like illness and hospitalisation among residents of long-term care facilities in Alberta (outcome variables) using multivariable linear and Poisson regression models. Results Oseltamivir prophylaxis decision-making time was positively associated with the postintervention duration of an outbreak, with a 1-day delay in making decision on oseltamivir prophylaxis associated with 2.22 (95% CI 1.37 to 3.06) more days of the duration of an outbreak after controlling for potential confounding effect of the number of residents at risk at intervention, outbreak progression time, prevalence of influenza-like illness during outbreak progression, facility location, presence of mixed strain and based on optimal timing of oseltamivir prophylaxis. Although not statistically significant, a 1-day delay in making decision on oseltamivir prophylaxis was associated with a 5% (95% CI −1% to 11%) increase in the postintervention risk of influenza-like illness, and a 6% (95% CI −8% to 22%) increase in the postintervention risk of hospitalisation after controlling for the same potential confounders. Conclusions Our study demonstrated benefits of using oseltamivir prophylaxis to shorten the duration of influenza outbreaks; however, there were no significant differences in the influenza-like illness and hospitalisation risk occurring after the intervention. Surveillance data may offer means of rapid evaluation of oseltamivir prophylaxis in long-term care facilities as a public health measure. PMID:27381211

Evaluation of the use of oseltamivir prophylaxis in the control of influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Alberta, Canada: a retrospective provincial database analysis.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Jacobs, Angela; Khan, Muhammad Naeem; Jaipaul, Joy; Oda, Joanna; Johnson, Marcia; Doroshenko, Alexander

2016-07-05

To evaluate the impact of oseltamivir prophylaxis in the management and control of influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Alberta, Canada. Long-term care facilities where 127 influenza outbreaks were reported to public health authorities in Alberta, Canada, during two influenza seasons from 2013 to 2015. Using routinely collected surveillance and administrative data, we examined the association between decision-making time for oseltamivir recommendation as prophylaxis strategy for influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (explanatory variable) and the duration of an influenza outbreak, the postprophylaxis risk of influenza-like illness and hospitalisation among residents of long-term care facilities in Alberta (outcome variables) using multivariable linear and Poisson regression models. Oseltamivir prophylaxis decision-making time was positively associated with the postintervention duration of an outbreak, with a 1-day delay in making decision on oseltamivir prophylaxis associated with 2.22 (95% CI 1.37 to 3.06) more days of the duration of an outbreak after controlling for potential confounding effect of the number of residents at risk at intervention, outbreak progression time, prevalence of influenza-like illness during outbreak progression, facility location, presence of mixed strain and based on optimal timing of oseltamivir prophylaxis. Although not statistically significant, a 1-day delay in making decision on oseltamivir prophylaxis was associated with a 5% (95% CI -1% to 11%) increase in the postintervention risk of influenza-like illness, and a 6% (95% CI -8% to 22%) increase in the postintervention risk of hospitalisation after controlling for the same potential confounders. Our study demonstrated benefits of using oseltamivir prophylaxis to shorten the duration of influenza outbreaks; however, there were no significant differences in the influenza-like illness and hospitalisation risk occurring after the intervention. Surveillance data may offer means of rapid evaluation of oseltamivir prophylaxis in long-term care facilities as a public health measure. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO[sub 2] on the dynamics of climate: Implications for ice age cycles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saltzman, B.; Maasch, K.A.; Verbitsky, M.Ya.

1993-06-07

The authors look at the impact of an antropogenic step increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide content on a dynamic model designed to look at long-term variations in climate. The model is one developed by Saltzman and Maasch, and Saltzman and Verbitsky, where four slow responding variables are considered to carry the climatic change information over the past 5 My. One of these variables is the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. If this step increase is maintained over a long period of time, what impact does this have of the present unstable regime where climate oscillates through ice age periodsmore » Indications are that the climate shifts to a regime where the oscillations are much weaker than those which prevailed during the Pleistocene.« less

High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

PubMed

Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

2011-01-01

The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Combining remote sensing and water-balance evapotranspiration estimates for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reitz, Meredith; Senay, Gabriel; Sanford, Ward E.

2017-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but it has been a challenge to predict accurately across different spatio-temporal scales. The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has led to significant advances in the frequency and spatial resolution of ET estimates, derived from energy balance principles with variables such as temperature used to estimate surface latent heat flux. Although remote sensing methods excel at depicting spatial and temporal variability, estimation of ET independently of other water budget components can lead to inconsistency with other budget terms. Methods that rely on ground-based data better constrain long-term ET, but are unable to provide the same temporal resolution. Here we combine long-term ET estimates from a water-balance approach with the SSEBop (operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance) remote sensing-based ET product for 2000–2015. We test the new combined method, the original SSEBop product, and another remote sensing ET product (MOD16) against monthly measurements from 119 flux towers. The new product showed advantages especially in non-irrigated areas where the new method showed a coefficient of determination R2 of 0.44, compared to 0.41 for SSEBop or 0.35 for MOD16. The resulting monthly data set will be a useful, unique contribution to ET estimation, due to its combination of remote sensing-based variability and ground-based long-term water balance constraints.

Recent Increase in North Atlantic Jet Variability Emerges from Three-Century Long Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.; Meko, M. D.

2017-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and their societal, ecosystem, and economic impacts. A recent increase in mid-latitude extreme events highlights the need for long-term records of jet stream variability to put recent trends in a historical perspective and to investigate non-linear relationships between jet stream variability, mid-latitude extreme weather events, and anthropogenic climate change. In Europe, anomalies of the North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) create a summer temperature seesaw between the British Isles (BRIT) and the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). We combined summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct inter-annual variability in the latitudinal position of the August NAJ back to 1725 CE. The two temperature proxies BRIT and NEMED counter-correlate significantly over their period of overlap, thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions, and combined explain close to 40% of the variance in the August NAJ target (Fig. 1). The NAJ reconstruction is dominated by sub-decadal variability and no significant long-term poleward or equatorward trends were detected. However, the NAJ time series shows a steep and unprecedented increase in variance starting in the late 1960s. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Central and Northeast Pacific, which are associated with the latitudinal position of the North Pacific Jet. Our combined results suggest a late 20th century increase in jet stream latitudinal variance in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Basin that can be indicative of enhanced jet stream waviness and that coincides with a recent increase in quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). Our results show a late 20th century amplification of meridional flow in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Basin and support more sinuous jet stream patterns and QRA as potential dynamic pathways for Arctic warming to influence midlatitude weather. Moreover, the synchronization of variance increases between the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins in the late 20th century is unprecedented over the last 290 years and strongly suggests an impact of anthropogenic warming.

Long-term variability and environmental control of the carbon cycle in an oak-dominated temperate forest

Treesearch

Jing Xie; Jiquan Chen; Ge Sun; Housen Chu; Asko Noormets; Zutao Ouyang; Ranjeet John; Shiqiang Wan; Wenbin Guan

2014-01-01

Our understanding of the long-term carbon (C) cycle of temperate deciduous forests and its sensitivity to climate variability is limited due to the large temporal dynamics of C fluxes. The goal of the study was to quantify the effects of environmental variables on the C balance in a 70-year-old mixed-oak woodland forest over a 7-year period in northwest Ohio, USA. The...

Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake — the attribution and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Zheng

2017-04-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.

Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake—the attribution and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Zheng; Dong, Jinwei; Zhou, Yuke; Stoy, Paul C.; Niu, Shuli

2017-01-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.

Kinematic variability, fractal dynamics and local dynamic stability of treadmill walking

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Motorized treadmills are widely used in research or in clinical therapy. Small kinematics, kinetics and energetics changes induced by Treadmill Walking (TW) as compared to Overground Walking (OW) have been reported in literature. The purpose of the present study was to characterize the differences between OW and TW in terms of stride-to-stride variability. Classical (Standard Deviation, SD) and non-linear (fractal dynamics, local dynamic stability) methods were used. In addition, the correlations between the different variability indexes were analyzed. Methods Twenty healthy subjects performed 10 min TW and OW in a random sequence. A triaxial accelerometer recorded trunk accelerations. Kinematic variability was computed as the average SD (MeanSD) of acceleration patterns among standardized strides. Fractal dynamics (scaling exponent α) was assessed by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of stride intervals. Short-term and long-term dynamic stability were estimated by computing the maximal Lyapunov exponents of acceleration signals. Results TW did not modify kinematic gait variability as compared to OW (multivariate T2, p = 0.87). Conversely, TW significantly modified fractal dynamics (t-test, p = 0.01), and both short and long term local dynamic stability (T2 p = 0.0002). No relationship was observed between variability indexes with the exception of significant negative correlation between MeanSD and dynamic stability in TW (3 × 6 canonical correlation, r = 0.94). Conclusions Treadmill induced a less correlated pattern in the stride intervals and increased gait stability, but did not modify kinematic variability in healthy subjects. This could be due to changes in perceptual information induced by treadmill walking that would affect locomotor control of the gait and hence specifically alter non-linear dependencies among consecutive strides. Consequently, the type of walking (i.e. treadmill or overground) is important to consider in each protocol design. PMID:21345241

Clinical Efficacy and Its Prognostic Factor of Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Annuloplasty and Nucleoplasty for the Treatment of Patients with Discogenic Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Hwan; Lee, Sang-Ho

2017-09-01

The choice of appropriate treatment of discogenic low back pain (DLBP) frequently is difficult. This study sought to identify the clinical efficacy of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar annuloplasty and nucleoplasty (PELAN) to treat patients with DLBP and to investigate prognostic clinical or radiologic variables. Eighty-nine patients with a diagnosis of DLBP who underwent PELAN were included. Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) for back pain, Oswestry Disability Index % (ODI%), and modified Macnab criteria were measured at short-term (3-4 weeks) and long-term follow-up period (at least 12 months) to investigate clinical efficacy of PELAN. The subjects were defined as successful group in case of 50% or more reduction of NRS, 40% or more reduction of ODI%, and good or excellent response of Macnab criteria. Clinical and radiologic variables were compared between successful and unsuccessful outcomes group to determine prognostic variables. NRS and ODI% were significantly reduced at short- and long-term follow-up after PELAN. Sixty-two (69.7%) and 68 (76.4%) obtained successful NRS reduction and 59 (66.3%) and 68 (76.4%) accomplished successful ODI% reduction at short-term and long-term follow-up, respectively. Successful Mcnab response was found in 61% at short term and 65.2% at long term. Pain during waist flexion among clinical variables was significantly related to good clinical outcomes and Modic change among radiologic variables was significantly related to poor clinical outcomes. PELAN provided favorable outcomes in patients with DLBP who were refractory to conservative treatments. Flexion pain was good prognostic, and Modic change was a poor prognostic variable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

Dynamic stability of passive dynamic walking on an irregular surface.

PubMed

Su, Jimmy Li-Shin; Dingwell, Jonathan B

2007-12-01

Falls that occur during walking are a significant health problem. One of the greatest impediments to solve this problem is that there is no single obviously "correct" way to quantify walking stability. While many people use variability as a proxy for stability, measures of variability do not quantify how the locomotor system responds to perturbations. The purpose of this study was to determine how changes in walking surface variability affect changes in both locomotor variability and stability. We modified an irreducibly simple model of walking to apply random perturbations that simulated walking over an irregular surface. Because the model's global basin of attraction remained fixed, increasing the amplitude of the applied perturbations directly increased the risk of falling in the model. We generated ten simulations of 300 consecutive strides of walking at each of six perturbation amplitudes ranging from zero (i.e., a smooth continuous surface) up to the maximum level the model could tolerate without falling over. Orbital stability defines how a system responds to small (i.e., "local") perturbations from one cycle to the next and was quantified by calculating the maximum Floquet multipliers for the model. Local stability defines how a system responds to similar perturbations in real time and was quantified by calculating short-term and long-term local exponential rates of divergence for the model. As perturbation amplitudes increased, no changes were seen in orbital stability (r(2)=2.43%; p=0.280) or long-term local instability (r(2)=1.0%; p=0.441). These measures essentially reflected the fact that the model never actually "fell" during any of our simulations. Conversely, the variability of the walker's kinematics increased exponentially (r(2)>or=99.6%; p<0.001) and short-term local instability increased linearly (r(2)=88.1%; p<0.001). These measures thus predicted the increased risk of falling exhibited by the model. For all simulated conditions, the walker remained orbitally stable, while exhibiting substantial local instability. This was because very small initial perturbations diverged away from the limit cycle, while larger initial perturbations converged toward the limit cycle. These results provide insight into how these different proposed measures of walking stability are related to each other and to risk of falling.

Long-term resilience of above- and below ground ecosystem components among contrasting ecosystems.

PubMed

Wardle, David A; Jonsson, Micael

2014-07-01

While several studies have explored how short-term ecological responses to disturbance vary among ecosystems, experimental studies of how contrasting ecosystems recover from disturbance in the longer term are few. We performed a simple long-term experiment on each of 30 contrasting forested islands in northern Sweden that vary in size; as size decreases, time since fire increases, soil fertility and ecosystem productivity declines, and plant species diversity increases. We predicted that resilience of understory plant community properties would be greatest on the larger, more productive islands, and that this would be paralleled by greater resilience of soil biotic and abiotic properties. For each island, we applied three disturbance treatments of increasing intensity to the forest understory once in 1998, i.e., light trimming, heavy trimming, and burning; a fourth treatment was an undisturbed control. We measured recovery of the understory vascular plant community annually over the following 14 years, and at that time also assessed recovery of mosses and several belowground variables. Consistent with our predictions, vascular plant whole-community variables (total cover, species richness, diversity [Shannon's H'], and community composition) recovered significantly more slowly on the smaller (least fertile) than the larger islands, but this difference was not substantial, and only noticeable in the most severely disturbed treatment. When an index of resilience was used, we were unable to detect effects of island size on the recovery of any property. We found that mosses and one shrub species (Empetrum hermaphroditum) recovered particularly slowly, and the higher abundance of this shrub on small islands was sufficient to explain any slower recovery of whole-ecosystem variables on those islands. Further, several belowground variables had not fully recovered from the most intense disturbance after 14 yr, and counter to our predictions, the degree of their recovery was never influenced by island size. While several studies have shown large variation among plant communities in their short-term response (notably resistance) to environmental perturbations, our results reveal that when perturbations are applied equally to highly contrasting ecosystems, differences in resilience among them in the longer term can be relatively minor, regardless of the severity of disturbance.

Response of Solar Irradiance to Sunspot-area Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudok de Wit, T.; Kopp, G.; Shapiro, A.; Witzke, V.; Kretzschmar, M.

2018-02-01

One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e., on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e., days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger & Walton showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which questions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to a sunspot area.

Soil water improvements with the long-term use of a winter rye cover crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Midwestern United States is projected to experience increasing rainfall variability. One approach to mitigate climate impacts is to utilize crop and soil management practices that enhance soil water storage, reducing the risks of flooding as well as drought-induced crop water stress. While some ...

Soil water improvements with the long-term use of a winter rye cover crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Midwestern United States, a region that produces one-third of maize and one-quarter of soybeans globally, is projected to experience increasing rainfall variability with future climate change. One approach to mitigate climate impacts is to utilize crop and soil management practices that enhance ...

Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leis, S.A.; Leslie, David M.; Engle, David M.; Fehmi, J.S.

2008-01-01

Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Perceived social justice, long-term unemployment and health. A survey among marginalised groups in Austria.

PubMed

Freidl, Wolfgang; Fazekas, Christian; Raml, Reinhard; Pretis, Manfred; Feistritzer, Gert

2007-07-01

Although socially disadvantaged groups are known to have a high risk of poor health the involved mechanisms and psychosocial dynamics are not fully understood. Long-term unemployment and the perception of social justice may both additionally endanger health. We therefore set out to explore the specific impact of these two context variables on self-reported health, health behaviour, and resources in marginalised groups. A structured interview survey was conducted in three federal provinces in Austria, which targeted a quota sample of 486 subjects in long-term unemployment. Both, duration of long-term unemployment and low perceived social justice, are strongly associated with self-reported poor health and low personal (internal) and social (external) health resources. The best differentiation of dependent variables concerning the univariate analyses was found with respect to social health resources, as all variables on this level significantly correlated with perceived social justice but not with duration of long-term unemployment. While this study does not allow to establish causal relationships, the associations we found suggest that also perceived social justice needs to be taken into account in interventions that are intended to foster equity in health among socially disadvantaged groups.

Effect of circulatory assistance on premature death and long-term prognosis.

PubMed

Sánchez Lázaro, I J; Almenar Bonet, L; Martínez-Dolz, L; Moro López, J; Rueda Soriano, J; Arnau Vives, M A; Buendía Fuentes, F; Ortiz Martínez, V; Cano Pérez, O; Sánchez Soriano, R; Salvador Sanz, A

2008-11-01

Patients undergoing urgent heart transplantation (HT) have a poorer prognosis and more long-term complications. The objective of this study was to compare the preoperative course in patients undergoing urgent HT according to the need for preoperative intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation (IABP). We studied 102 consecutive patients including 23 patients with IABP who underwent urgent HT between January 2000 and September 2006. We excluded patients who received combination transplants, those who underwent repeat HT, and pediatric patients who underwent HT. The statistical methods used were the t test for quantitative variables and the chi(2) test for qualitative variables. A logistic regression model was constructed to assess the possible relationship between IABP and other variables on premature death within 30 days after HT. Mean (SD) patient-age was 50 (10) years. No significant differences were observed in baseline characteristics between the IABP and the non-IAPB groups. The IABP patient group had higher rates of acute graft failure (45.5% vs 35.4%; P = .46) and premature death (18.8% vs 14.8%; P = .67) and shorter long-term survival (40.6 [34.9] vs 54.5 [43.7] mo; P = .30). Multivariate analysis demonstrated no association between the need for IABP and increased frequency of premature death. Use of IABP is not associated with premature or late death. We recommend use of IABP in patients with acute decompensated heart failure to stabilize them before HT.

Long-term stability of diurnal salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns.

PubMed

Skoluda, Nadine; La Marca, Roberto; Gollwitzer, Mario; Müller, Andreas; Limm, Heribert; Marten-Mittag, Birgitt; Gündel, Harald; Angerer, Peter; Nater, Urs M

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate long-term stability and variability of diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase patterns. Diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns were assessed on a single workday with three waves of measurement across a total time period of 24months in 189 participants. Separate hierarchical linear models were analyzed, with and without a number of potential predictor variables (age, BMI, smoking, chronic stress, stress reactivity). While low long-term stability was found in diurnal cortisol, the stability of diurnal alpha-amylase was moderate across the time period of 24months. Several predictor variables had a positive impact on diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns averaged across waves. Our findings underpin the notion that long-term stability is not necessarily warranted in longitudinal studies. It is important to choose an appropriate study design when attempting to disentangle clinically and biologically relevant changes from naturally occurring variations in diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationships between northern Adriatic Sea mucilage events and climate variability.

PubMed

Deserti, Marco; Cacciamani, Carlo; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rinaldi, Attilio; Ferrari, Carla R

2005-12-15

A long term analysis (1865-2002) of meteorological data collected in the Po Valley and Northern Adriatic Basin have been analysed to find possible links between variability in the climatic parameters and the phenomenon of mucilage. Seasonal anomalies of temperature, calculated as spatial mean over the Po Valley area, and anomalies of North Atlantic Oscillation were compared with the historical record of mucilage episodes. Both climatic indices were found to be positively correlated with mucilage events, suggesting a possible relationship between climatic variability and the increased appearance of mucilage aggregates.

Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment

PubMed Central

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328

Sleep Variability in Adolescence is Associated with Altered Brain Development

PubMed Central

Telzer, Eva H.; Goldenberg, Diane; Fuligni, Andrew J.; Lieberman, Matthew D.; Galvan, Adriana

2015-01-01

Despite the known importance of sleep for brain development, and the sharp increase in poor sleep during adolescence, we know relatively little about how sleep impacts the developing brain. We present the first longitudinal study to examine how sleep during adolescence is associated with white matter integrity. We find that greater variability in sleep duration one year prior to a DTI scan is associated with lower white matter integrity above and beyond the effects of sleep duration, and variability in bedtime, whereas sleep variability a few months prior to the scan is not associated with white matter integrity. Thus, variability in sleep duration during adolescence may have long-term impairments on the developing brain. White matter integrity should be increasing during adolescence, and so sleep variability is directly at odds with normative developmental trends. PMID:26093368

Estimated long-term outdoor air pollution concentrations in a cohort study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Fischer, Paul; Brandt, Piet A. van den; Brunekreef, Bert

Several recent studies associated long-term exposure to air pollution with increased mortality. An ongoing cohort study, the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), was used to study the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and mortality. Following on a previous exposure assessment study in the NLCS, we improved the exposure assessment methods. Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), nitrogen oxide (NO), black smoke (BS), and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) was estimated. Exposure at each home address ( N=21 868) was considered as a function of a regional, an urban and a local component. The regional component was estimated using inverse distance weighed interpolation of measurement data from regional background sites in a national monitoring network. Regression models with urban concentrations as dependent variables, and number of inhabitants in different buffers and land use variables, derived with a Geographic Information System (GIS), as predictor variables were used to estimate the urban component. The local component was assessed using a GIS and a digital road network with linked traffic intensities. Traffic intensity on the nearest road and on the nearest major road, and the sum of traffic intensity in a buffer of 100 m around each home address were assessed. Further, a quantitative estimate of the local component was estimated. The regression models to estimate the urban component explained 67%, 46%, 49% and 35% of the variances of NO 2, NO, BS, and SO 2 concentrations, respectively. Overall regression models which incorporated the regional, urban and local component explained 84%, 44%, 59% and 56% of the variability in concentrations for NO 2, NO, BS and SO 2, respectively. We were able to develop an exposure assessment model using GIS methods and traffic intensities that explained a large part of the variations in outdoor air pollution concentrations.

Quantification of long-term erosion rates from root exposure/tree age relationships in an alpine meadow catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scuderi, Louis A.

2017-04-01

Erosion rates derived using dendrogeomorphology have been used to quantify slope degradation in many localities globally. However, with the exception of the western United States, most of these estimates are derived from short-lived trees whose lifetimes may not adequately reflect the complete range of slope processes which can include erosion, deposition, impacts of extreme events and even long-term hiatuses. Erosion rate estimates at a given site using standard techniques therefore reflect censored local point erosion estimates rather than long-term rates. We applied a modified dendrogeomorphic approach to rapidly estimate erosion rates from dbh/age relationships to assess the difference between short and long-term rates and found that the mean short-term rate was 0.13 cm/yr with high variability, while the uncensored long-term rate was 0.06 cm/yr. The results indicate that rates calculated from short-lived trees, while possibly appropriate for local short-term point estimates of erosion, are highly variable and may overestimate regional long-term rates by > 50%. While these findings do not invalidate the use of dendrogeomorphology to estimate erosion rates they do suggest that care must be taken to select older trees that incorporate a range of slope histories in order to best approximate regional long-term rates.

Human θ burst stimulation enhances subsequent motor learning and increases performance variability.

PubMed

Teo, James T H; Swayne, Orlando B C; Cheeran, Binith; Greenwood, Richard J; Rothwell, John C

2011-07-01

Intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) transiently increases motor cortex excitability in healthy humans by a process thought to involve synaptic long-term potentiation (LTP), and this is enhanced by nicotine. Acquisition of a ballistic motor task is likewise accompanied by increased excitability and presumed intracortical LTP. Here, we test how iTBS and nicotine influences subsequent motor learning. Ten healthy subjects participated in a double-blinded placebo-controlled trial testing the effects of iTBS and nicotine. iTBS alone increased the rate of learning but this increase was blocked by nicotine. We then investigated factors other than synaptic strengthening that may play a role. Behavioral analysis and modeling suggested that iTBS increased performance variability, which correlated with learning outcome. A control experiment confirmed the increase in motor output variability by showing that iTBS increased the dispersion of involuntary transcranial magnetic stimulation-evoked thumb movements. We suggest that in addition to the effect on synaptic plasticity, iTBS may have facilitated performance by increasing motor output variability; nicotine negated this effect on variability perhaps via increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in cerebral cortex.

Lazy workers are necessary for long-term sustainability in insect societies

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Ishii, Yasunori; Tada, Koichiro; Kobayashi, Kazuya; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

Optimality theory predicts the maximization of productivity in social insect colonies, but many inactive workers are found in ant colonies. Indeed, the low short-term productivity of ant colonies is often the consequence of high variation among workers in the threshold to respond to task-related stimuli. Why is such an inefficient strategy among colonies maintained by natural selection? Here, we show that inactive workers are necessary for the long-term sustainability of a colony. Our simulation shows that colonies with variable thresholds persist longer than those with invariable thresholds because inactive workers perform the critical function of replacing active workers when they become fatigued. Evidence of the replacement of active workers by inactive workers has been found in ant colonies. Thus, the presence of inactive workers increases the long-term persistence of the colony at the expense of decreasing short-term productivity. Inactive workers may represent a bet-hedging strategy in response to environmental stochasticity. PMID:26880339

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Pilcher, Darren J.

2017-01-01

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

PubMed

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

The impact of organizational factors on the urinary incontinence care quality in long-term care hospitals: a longitudinal correlational study.

PubMed

Yoon, Ju Young; Lee, Ji Yun; Bowers, Barbara J; Zimmerman, David R

2012-12-01

With the rapid increase in the number of long-term care hospitals in Korea, care quality has become an important issue. Urinary incontinence is an important condition affecting many residents' quality of life. Thus, it is important that urinary incontinence be amenable to improving conditions with appropriate interventions, since a change in urinary incontinence status can reflect care quality in long-term care facilities if patient level factors are adjusted. We aim to examine the impact of organizational factors on urinary incontinence care quality defined as the improvement of urinary incontinence status or maintenance of continent status post-admission to Korean long-term care hospitals. DESIGN AND DATA: This is a longitudinal correlation study. Data came from two sources: monthly patient assessment reports using the Patient Assessment Instrument and the hospital information system from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services. The final analysis includes 5271 elderly adults without indwelling urinary catheter or urostomy who were admitted to 534 Korean long-term care hospitals in April 2008. Multi-level logistic analysis was used to explore the organizational factors that influence urinary incontinence care quality controlling for patient level factors. With respect to the organizational factors, the findings showed that location and RN/total nursing staff ratio variables were statistically significant, controlling for risk factors at the patient level. The odds of urinary incontinence improvement from admission in urban long-term care hospitals were 1.28 times higher than rural long-term care hospitals. In addition, when a long-term care hospital increased one standard deviation (0.19) in the RN ratio, the odds of urinary incontinence status improvement or maintenance of continence status from admission increased about 1.8 times. The most significant finding was that a higher RN to patient ratio and urban location were associated with better resident outcomes of urinary incontinence among organizational factors. For a better understanding of how these significant organizational factors influence positive care outcomes and provide more practical implications, studies should examine concrete care process measures as well as structure and outcome measures based on systematic conceptual models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Topography and climate are more important drivers of long-term, post-fire vegetation assembly than time-since-fire in the Sonoran Desert, US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Chen, Felicia

2015-01-01

We find substantial evidence that environmental filters, rather than TSF, drive the majority of variability in long-term, post-fire vegetation assembly within the Sonoran Desert. Careful consideration of spatial variability in abiotic conditions may benefit post-fire vegetation modelling, as well as fire management and restoration strategies.

Modelling of optimal training load patterns during the 11 weeks preceding major competition in elite swimmers.

PubMed

Hellard, Philippe; Scordia, Charlotte; Avalos, Marta; Mujika, Inigo; Pyne, David B

2017-10-01

Periodization of swim training in the final training phases prior to competition and its effect on performance have been poorly described. We modeled the relationships between the final 11 weeks of training and competition performance in 138 elite sprint, middle-distance, and long-distance swimmers over 20 competitive seasons. Total training load (TTL), strength training (ST), and low- to medium-intensity and high-intensity training variables were monitored. Training loads were scaled as a percentage of the maximal volume measured at each intensity level. Four training periods (meso-cycles) were defined: the taper (weeks 1 to 2 before competition), short-term (weeks 3 to 5), medium-term (weeks 6 to 8), and long-term (weeks 9 to 11). Mixed-effects models were used to analyze the association between training loads in each training meso-cycle and end-of-season major competition performance. For sprinters, a 10% increase between ∼20% and 70% of the TTL in medium- and long-term meso-cycles was associated with 0.07 s and 0.20 s faster performance in the 50 m and 100 m events, respectively (p < 0.01). For middle-distance swimmers, a higher TTL in short-, medium-, and long-term training yielded faster competition performance (e.g., a 10% increase in TTL was associated with improvements of 0.1-1.0 s in 200 m events and 0.3-1.6 s in 400 m freestyle, p < 0.01). For sprinters, a 60%-70% maximal ST load 6-8 weeks before competition induced the largest positive effects on performance (p < 0.01). An increase in TTL during the medium- and long-term preparation (6-11 weeks to competition) was associated with improved performance. Periodization plans should be adapted to the specialty of swimmers.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Visualization of Heart Rate Variability of Long-Term Heart Transplant Patient by Transition Networks: A Case Report.

PubMed

Wdowczyk, Joanna; Makowiec, Danuta; Dorniak, Karolina; Gruchała, Marcin

2016-01-01

We present a heart transplant patient at his 17th year of uncomplicated follow-up. Within a frame of routine check out several tests were performed. With such a long and uneventful follow-up some degree of graft reinnervation could be anticipated. However, the patient's electrocardiogram and exercise parameters seemed largely inconclusive in this regard. The exercise heart rate dynamics were suggestive of only mild, if any parasympathetic reinnervation of the graft with persisting sympathetic activation. On the other hand, traditional heart rate variability (HRV) indices were inadequately high, due to erratic rhythm resulting from interference of the persisting recipient sinus node or non-conducted atrial parasystole. New tools, originated from network representation of time series, by visualization short-term dynamical patterns, provided a method to discern HRV increase due to reinnervation from other reasons.

Modelling Escherichia coli concentrations in the tidal Scheldt river and estuary.

PubMed

de Brauwere, Anouk; de Brye, Benjamin; Servais, Pierre; Passerat, Julien; Deleersnijder, Eric

2011-04-01

Recent observations in the tidal Scheldt River and Estuary revealed a poor microbiological water quality and substantial variability of this quality which can hardly be assigned to a single factor. To assess the importance of tides, river discharge, point sources, upstream concentrations, mortality and settling a new model (SLIM-EC) was built. This model was first validated by comparison with the available field measurements of Escherichia coli (E. coli, a common fecal bacterial indicator) concentrations. The model simulations agreed well with the observations, and in particular were able to reproduce the observed long-term median concentrations and variability. Next, the model was used to perform sensitivity runs in which one process/forcing was removed at a time. These simulations revealed that the tide, upstream concentrations and the mortality process are the primary factors controlling the long-term median E. coli concentrations and the observed variability. The tide is crucial to explain the increased concentrations upstream of important inputs, as well as a generally increased variability. Remarkably, the wastewater treatment plants discharging in the study domain do not seem to have a significant impact. This is due to a dilution effect, and to the fact that the concentrations coming from upstream (where large cities are located) are high. Overall, the settling process as it is presently described in the model does not significantly affect the simulated E. coli concentrations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE PAGES

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; ...

2016-03-22

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smale, Alan P.; Boyd, Patricia T.

2012-01-01

Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

Using Long-term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds over Global Oceans

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Xuepeng; Liu, Yangang; Yu, Fangquan; ...

2017-11-16

Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records (CDRs) of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 < AOT < 0.3 is identifiedmore » as the sensitive regime of the conventional first AIE where CDER is more susceptible to AOT than the other cloud variables. The first AIE that manifests as the change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT < 0.08). Aerosol invigoration signature is also revealed by the concurrent increase of CDER, COD, and CWP with increasing AOT for a polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. Furthermore, the sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.« less

Using Long-Term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds Over Global Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xuepeng; Liu, Yangang; Yu, Fangquan; Heidinger, Andrew K.

2018-01-01

Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 < AOT < 0.3 is identified as the sensitive regime of the conventional first AIE where CDER is more susceptible to AOT than the other cloud variables. The first AIE that manifests as the change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT < 0.08). Aerosol invigoration signature is also revealed by the concurrent increase of CDER, COD, and CWP with increasing AOT for a polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. The sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.

Using Long-Term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds Over Global Oceans.

PubMed

Zhao, Xuepeng; Liu, Yangang; Yu, Fangquan; Heidinger, Andrew K

2018-01-16

Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 < AOT < 0.3 is identified as the sensitive regime of the conventional first AIE where CDER is more susceptible to AOT than the other cloud variables. The first AIE that manifests as the change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT < 0.08). Aerosol invigoration signature is also revealed by the concurrent increase of CDER, COD, and CWP with increasing AOT for a polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. The sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.

Using Long-term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds over Global Oceans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Xuepeng; Liu, Yangang; Yu, Fangquan

Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records (CDRs) of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 < AOT < 0.3 is identifiedmore » as the sensitive regime of the conventional first AIE where CDER is more susceptible to AOT than the other cloud variables. The first AIE that manifests as the change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT < 0.08). Aerosol invigoration signature is also revealed by the concurrent increase of CDER, COD, and CWP with increasing AOT for a polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. Furthermore, the sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.« less

Long-term effects of drought on tree-ring growth and carbon isotope variability in Scots pine in a dry environment.

PubMed

Timofeeva, Galina; Treydte, Kerstin; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas; Schaub, Marcus; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias

2017-08-01

Drought frequency is increasing in many parts of the world and may enhance tree decline and mortality. The underlying physiological mechanisms are poorly understood, however, particularly regarding chronic effects of long-term drought and the response to increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We combined analyses of radial growth and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in tree rings in a mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest over the 20th century to elucidate causes of tree mortality in one of the driest parts of the European Alps (Pfynwald, Switzerland). We further compared trees that have recently died with living trees in a 10-year irrigation experiment, where annual precipitation was doubled. We found a sustained growth increase and immediate depletion of δ13C values for irrigated trees, indicating higher stomatal conductance and thus indeed demonstrating that water is a key limiting factor for growth. Growth of the now-dead trees started declining in the mid-1980s, when both mean temperature and VPD increased strongly. But growth of these trees was reduced to some extent already several decades earlier, while intrinsic water-use efficiency derived from δ13C values was higher. This indicates a more conservative water-use strategy compared with surviving trees, possibly at the cost of low carbon uptake and long-term reduction of the needle mass. We observed reduced climatic sensitivity of raw tree-ring δ13C for the now-dead in contrast to surviving trees, indicating impaired stomatal regulation, although this difference between the tree groups was smaller after detrending the data. Higher autocorrelation and a lower inter-annual δ13C variability of the now-dead trees further indicates a strong dependence on (low) carbon reserves. We conclude that the recent increase in atmospheric moisture demand in combination with insufficient soil water supply was the main trigger for mortality of those trees that were weakened by long-term reduced carbon uptake. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez, Anthony; Maclaurin, Galen; Roberts, Billy

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY)more » resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.« less

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of long-term oral administration of levothyroxine sodium on serum thyroid hormone concentrations, clinicopathologic variables, and echocardiographic measurements in healthy adult horses.

PubMed

Frank, Nicholas; Buchanan, Benjamin R; Elliott, Sarah B

2008-01-01

To determine the effects of long-term oral levothyroxine sodium (L-T(4)) administration on serum thyroid hormone concentrations, thyroid gland function, clinicopathologic variables, and echocardiographic examination measurements in adult euthyroid horses. 6 healthy adult mares. Horses received L-T(4) (48 mg/d) orally for 48 weeks. Every 4 weeks, physical examinations were performed; blood samples were collected for CBC, plasma biochemical analyses, and assessments of serum total triiodothyronine (tT(3)) and thyroxine (tT(4)) concentrations. Plasma creatine kinase MB activity and cardiac troponin I concentration were also measured. Echocardiographic examinations were performed before and at 16, 32, and 48 weeks during the treatment period. During the treatment period, mean body weight decreased significantly; heart rate varied significantly, but the pattern of variation was not consistent. Significant time effects were detected for certain clinicopathologic variables, but mean values remained within reference ranges. Cardiac troponin I was only detectable in 8 of 24 plasma samples (concentration range, 0.01 to 0.03 ng/mL). Serum creatine kinase MB activity did not change significantly over time. Compared with the pretreatment value, 5.4-, 4.0-, and 3.7-fold increases in mean serum tT(4) concentrations were detected at 16, 32, and 48 weeks, respectively. Some cardiac measurements changed significantly over time, but mean values remained within published reference ranges. Mean fractional shortening was lower than the pretreatment mean value at 16 and 32 weeks. In horses, long-term oral administration of 48 mg of L-T(4)/d significantly increased serum tT(4) concentrations and did not appear to adversely affect health.

Vegetation change, malnutrition and violence in the Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowhani, P.; Degomme, O.; Linderman, M.; Guha-Sapir, D.; Lambin, E.

2008-12-01

In certain circumstances, climate change in association with a broad range of social factors may increase the risk of famines and subsequently, violent conflict. The impacts of climate change on society will be experienced both through changes in mean conditions over long time periods and through increases in extreme events. Recent studies have shown the historical effects of long term climate change on societies and the importance of short term climatic triggers on armed conflict. However, most of these studies are at the state level ignoring local conditions. Here we use detailed information extracted from wide-swath satellite data (MODIS) to analyze the impact of climate variability change on malnutrition and violent conflict. More specifically, we perform multivariate logistic regression analysis in order to explain the geographical distribution of malnutrition and conflict in the Horn of Africa on a sub-national level. This region, constituted by several unstable and poor states, has been affected by droughts, floods, famines, and violence in the past few years. Three commonly used nutrition and mortality indicators are used to characterize the health situation (CE-DAT database). To map violence we use the georeferenced Armed Conflicts dataset developed by the Center for the Study of Civil War. Explanatory variables include several socio-economic variables and environmental variables characterizing land degradation, vegetation activity, and interannual variability in land-surface conditions. First results show that interannual variability in land-surface conditions is associated with malnutrition but not with armed conflict. Furthermore, land degradation seems not to be associated with either malnutrition or armed conflict.

Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

PubMed

Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2015-06-01

Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter U.; Archer, David; Pollard, David; Blum, Joel D.; Rial, Jose A.; Brovkin, Victor; Mix, Alan C.; Pisias, Nicklas G.; Roy, Martin

2006-12-01

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (˜100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by ˜50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance ˜900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing. Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO 2. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO 2 would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO 2 rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO 2 by 7-12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.

76 FR 48130 - Certain Pasta From Italy: Preliminary Results of the 14th (2009) Countervailing Duty...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-08

... rate versus variable interest rate), the maturity of the loan (e.g., short-term versus long-term), and... were received. Benchmarks for Long-Term Loans and Discount Rates Pursuant to 19 CFR 351.505(a), the... using the national average cost of long-term, fixed-rate loans pursuant to 19 CFR 351.524(d)(3)(B...

Synergistic effects of the components of global change: Increased vegetation dynamics in open, forest-steppe grasslands driven by wildfires and year-to-year precipitation differences

PubMed Central

Aszalós, Réka; Lengyel, Attila

2017-01-01

Climate change and land use change are two major elements of human-induced global environmental change. In temperate grasslands and woodlands, increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and increasing severity of wildfires has altered the structure and dynamics of vegetation. In this paper, we studied the impact of wildfires and the year-to-year differences in precipitation on species composition changes in semi-arid grasslands of a forest-steppe complex ecosystem which has been partially disturbed by wildfires. Particularly, we investigated both how long-term compositional dissimilarity changes and species richness are affected by year-to-year precipitation differences on burnt and unburnt areas. Study sites were located in central Hungary, in protected areas characterized by partially-burnt, juniper-poplar forest-steppe complexes of high biodiversity. Data were used from two long-term monitoring sites in the Kiskunság National Park, both characterized by the same habitat complex. We investigated the variation in species composition as a function of time using distance decay methodology. In each sampling area, compositional dissimilarity increased with the time elapsed between the sampling events, and species richness differences increased with increasing precipitation differences between consecutive years. We found that both the long-term compositional dissimilarity, and the year-to-year changes in species richness were higher in the burnt areas than in the unburnt ones. The long-term compositional dissimilarities were mostly caused by perennial species, while the year-to-year changes of species richness were driven by annual and biennial species. As the effect of the year-to-year variation in precipitation was more pronounced in the burnt areas, we conclude that canopy removal by wildfires and extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation, two components of global environmental change, act in a synergistic way. They enhance the effect of one another, resulting in greater long-term and year-to-year changes in the composition of grasslands. PMID:29149208

Synergistic effects of the components of global change: Increased vegetation dynamics in open, forest-steppe grasslands driven by wildfires and year-to-year precipitation differences.

PubMed

Kertész, Miklós; Aszalós, Réka; Lengyel, Attila; Ónodi, Gábor

2017-01-01

Climate change and land use change are two major elements of human-induced global environmental change. In temperate grasslands and woodlands, increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and increasing severity of wildfires has altered the structure and dynamics of vegetation. In this paper, we studied the impact of wildfires and the year-to-year differences in precipitation on species composition changes in semi-arid grasslands of a forest-steppe complex ecosystem which has been partially disturbed by wildfires. Particularly, we investigated both how long-term compositional dissimilarity changes and species richness are affected by year-to-year precipitation differences on burnt and unburnt areas. Study sites were located in central Hungary, in protected areas characterized by partially-burnt, juniper-poplar forest-steppe complexes of high biodiversity. Data were used from two long-term monitoring sites in the Kiskunság National Park, both characterized by the same habitat complex. We investigated the variation in species composition as a function of time using distance decay methodology. In each sampling area, compositional dissimilarity increased with the time elapsed between the sampling events, and species richness differences increased with increasing precipitation differences between consecutive years. We found that both the long-term compositional dissimilarity, and the year-to-year changes in species richness were higher in the burnt areas than in the unburnt ones. The long-term compositional dissimilarities were mostly caused by perennial species, while the year-to-year changes of species richness were driven by annual and biennial species. As the effect of the year-to-year variation in precipitation was more pronounced in the burnt areas, we conclude that canopy removal by wildfires and extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation, two components of global environmental change, act in a synergistic way. They enhance the effect of one another, resulting in greater long-term and year-to-year changes in the composition of grasslands.

Peri-operative kidney injury and long-term chronic kidney disease following orthotopic heart transplantation in children.

PubMed

Hoskote, Aparna; Burch, Michael

2015-06-01

Significant advances in cardiac intensive care including extracorporeal life support have enabled children with complex congenital heart disease and end-stage heart failure to be supported while awaiting transplantation. With an increasing number of survivors after heart transplantation in children, the complications from long-term immunosuppression, including renal insufficiency, are becoming more apparent. Severe renal dysfunction after heart transplant is defined by a serum creatinine level >2.5 mg/dL (221 μmol/L), and/or need for dialysis or renal transplant. The degree of renal dysfunction is variable and is progressive over time. About 3-10 % of heart transplant recipients will go on to develop severe renal dysfunction within the first 10 years post-transplantation. Multiple risk factors for chronic kidney disease post-transplant have been identified, which include pre-transplant worsening renal function, recipient demographics and morbidity, peri-transplant haemodynamics and long-term exposure to calcineurin inhibitors. Renal insufficiency increases the risk of post-transplant morbidity and mortality. Hence, screening for renal dysfunction pre-, peri- and post-transplantation is important. Early and timely detection of renal insufficiency may help minimize renal insults, and allow prompt implementation of renoprotective strategies. Close monitoring and pre-emptive management of renal dysfunction is an integral aspect of peri-transplant and subsequent post-transplant long-term care.

Physiological performance of the intertidal Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) to long-term daily rhythms of air exposure

PubMed Central

Yin, Xuwang; Chen, Peng; Chen, Hai; Jin, Wen; Yan, Xiwu

2017-01-01

Intertidal organisms, especially the sessile species, often experience long-term periodic air exposure during their lives. Learning the biochemical and physiological responses of intertidal organisms to long-term periodic air exposure and the relationship to duration of air exposure provides insight into adaptation to this variably stressful environment. We studied the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, an important species in world aquaculture, as a model to evaluate survival, growth, lipid composition, oxygen consumption, oxidative damage, and antioxidant enzyme activity in relation to the duration of air exposure in a long-term (60 days) laboratory study of varying durations of periodic emersion and re-immersion. Our results show: (1) clams undergoing a longer period of air exposure had lower survival and growth compared to those given a shorter exposure, (2) levels of oxidative damage and activities of antioxidant enzymes were higher in all air exposure treatments, but did not increase with duration of air exposure, and (3) the content of docosahexaenoic acid increased with duration of air exposure. Our results can largely be interpreted in the context of the energy expenditure by the clams caused by aerobic metabolism during the daily cycle of emersion and re-immersion and the roles of docosahexaenoic acid against oxidative stress. PMID:28128354

Bifurcating effects of hope and support in short- and long-term health outcomes among primary care patients without mental illness.

PubMed

Katerndahl, David

2014-08-01

Adverse life events and stressors can lead to symptoms, increased alcohol intake, and impaired functional status, while hope and social support can mitigate such adverse effects. Yet, there is reason to question such simple, linear relationships among healthy adults. The purpose of this study was to assess whether short-term or long-term changes in alcohol intake, psychological symptoms or functional status were better modelled as cusp catastrophic or linear processes among primary care patients without mental illness. This secondary analysis of a study on the stability of psychological symptoms among primary care patients without mental disorders included 38 subjects who completed baseline, and 2-month and/or 6-month assessments of psychological symptoms, functional status and stressors as well as hope and social support. The analyses modelled short-term and long-term changes in alcohol intake, psychological symptoms and functional status using cusp catastrophe (CCM) and linear modelling. Overall, four of the nine 2-month analyses found CCM superior to linear models; however, only one 6-month analysis (alcohol intake) found that CCM was superior. The 2-month cusp phenomena included both symptomatology and functional status. The asymmetry variables were often not significant in the CCM models; in fact, only distress was significant at all. While hope was a significant bifurcation variable at both the 2-month and 6-month levels, social support was a significant bifurcation variable for three of the four 2-month CCMs. In conclusion, while 6-month outcomes were rarely explained through CCM, half of 2-month outcomes were. Hope and support demonstrated bifurcation effects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

PubMed Central

Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Chambers, Don P.; Willis, Josh K.; Hilburn, Kyle

2010-01-01

Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle. PMID:20921364

The relationship between sense of coherence and attribution of responsibility for problems and their solutions, and cessation of substance abuse over time.

PubMed

Feigin, Rena; Sapir, Yaffa

2005-03-01

The present study deals with personal and psychological characteristics of addicts coping with abstinence from drugs in various stages of recovery. The study focuses primarily on two personal variables: attribution of responsibility for the problem and its solution, and the sense of coherence. Additional factors that were examined in the study are demographic variables, which include those related to drug addiction. The sample included 128 short-term abstinent patients in the early stages of recovery after detoxification, and 40 long-term abstinent former addicts, who have abstained from the use of drugs for two to eight years. The results indicate a higher level of sense of coherence among the long-term abstinent subjects relating to their inner resources. On the other hand, much similarity was found between the groups in relation to the attribution of responsibility variable. In both groups, the majority reports that they attribute responsibility for the solution of the problem to themselves. The findings underscored the significant link between personality variables and coping with the processes of recovery, while an analysis of demographic and addiction variables did not show a significant distinction between the group of long-term abstinent subjects and the short-term abstinent subjects.

The long-term physical and psychological health impacts of flooding: A systematic mapping.

PubMed

Zhong, Shuang; Yang, Lianping; Toloo, Sam; Wang, Zhe; Tong, Shilu; Sun, Xiaojie; Crompton, David; FitzGerald, Gerard; Huang, Cunrui

2018-06-01

Flooding has caused significant and wide ranging long-term health impacts for affected populations. However, until now, the long-term health outcomes, epidemiological trends and specific impact factors of flooding had not been identified. In this study, the relevant literature was systematically mapped to create the first synthesis of the evidence of the long-term health impacts of flooding. The systematic mapping method was used to collect and categorize all the relevant literature. A study was included if it had a description or measurement of health impacts over six months after flooding. The search was limited to peer reviewed articles and grey literature written in English, published from 1996 to 2016. A total of 56 critical articles were extracted for the final map, including 5 qualitative and 51 quantitative studies. Most long-term studies investigated the psychological impacts of flooding, including PTSD, depression, anxiety, psychiatric disorders, sleep disorder and suicide. Others investigated the physiological impacts, including health-related quality of life, acute myocardial infarction, chronic diseases, and malnutrition. Social support was proved to be protective factors that can improve health outcomes in the long-term after flooding. To date, there have been relatively few reviews had focused on the long-term health impacts of flooding. This study coded and catalogued the existing evidence across a wide range of variables and described the long-term health consequences within a conceptual map. Although there was no boundary between the short-term and the long-term impacts of flooding, the identified health outcomes in this systematic mapping could be used to define long-term health impacts. The studies showed that the prevalence of psychological diseases had a reversed increasing trend occurred even in the long-term in relatively poor post-flooding environments. Further cohort or longitudinal research focused on disability, chronic diseases, relocation population, and social interventions after flooding, are urgently required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sulfur dioxide in the Venus Atmosphere: II. Spatial and temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandaele, A. C.; Korablev, O.; Belyaev, D.; Chamberlain, S.; Evdokimova, D.; Encrenaz, Th.; Esposito, L.; Jessup, K. L.; Lefèvre, F.; Limaye, S.; Mahieux, A.; Marcq, E.; Mills, F. P.; Montmessin, F.; Parkinson, C. D.; Robert, S.; Roman, T.; Sandor, B.; Stolzenbach, A.; Wilson, C.; Wilquet, V.

2017-10-01

The vertical distribution of sulfur species in the Venus atmosphere has been investigated and discussed in Part I of this series of papers dealing with the variability of SO2 on Venus. In this second part, we focus our attention on the spatial (horizontal) and temporal variability exhibited by SO2. Appropriate data sets - SPICAV/UV nadir observations from Venus Express, ground-based ALMA and TEXES, as well as UV observation on the Hubble Space Telescope - have been considered for this analysis. High variability both on short-term and short-scale are observed. The long-term trend observed by these instruments shows a succession of rapid increases followed by slow decreases in the SO2 abundance at the cloud top level, implying that the transport of air from lower altitudes plays an important role. The origins of the larger amplitude short-scale, short-term variability observed at the cloud tops are not yet known but are likely also connected to variations in vertical transport of SO2 and possibly to variations in the abundance and production and loss of H2O, H2SO4, and Sx.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

2011-01-01

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

2011-01-01

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

Long-Term Variability of Airborne Asian Dust Observed from TOMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, J. R.; Hsu, N. C.; Seftor, C. J.; Holben, B. N.; Holben, B. N.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recent studies suggest that airborne Asian dust may not only play an important role in the regional radiation budget, but also influence the air quality over North America through long-range transport. In this paper, we use satellite data to investigate the long-term variability of airborne Asian dust as well as the daily variation of the dust aerosol distribution. By combining the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) wind data, our analysis shows a strong correlation between the generation of dust storms in the region and the passage of springtime weather fronts. This is consistent with earlier studies performed by other researchers. According to both the Nimbus-7 and Earth-Probe TOMS data the Takla Makan desert, the Gobi desert, and the and region of Inner Mongolia are major sources of the eastward-flowing airborne Asian dust. Heavily populated areas in eastern China (e.g., Beijing) are often on the primary path of the dust storms originating in these desert regions. The increasing desertification north of the Beijing region has served to exacerbate problems stemming from these storms. The time series derived from 20 years of TOMS aerosol index data shows the first significant satellite evidence of the atmospheric effect of increasing desertification, indicating that the amount of dust blown eastward has increased strongly during the past few years including the year 2000.

Factors Associated with Long-Term Sickness Absence Due to Mental Disorders: A Cohort Study of 7.112 Patients during the Spanish Economic Crisis.

PubMed

Real, Eva; Jover, Lluís; Verdaguer, Ricard; Griera, Antoni; Segalàs, Cinto; Alonso, Pino; Contreras, Fernando; Arteman, Antoni; Menchón, José M

2016-01-01

Mental health problems are very common and often lead to prolonged sickness absence, having serious economic repercussions for most European countries. Periods of economic crisis are important social phenomena that are assumed to increase sickness absence due to mental disorders, although research on this topic remains scarce. The aim of this study was to gather data on long-term sickness absence (and relapse) due to mental disorders in Spain during a period of considerable socio-economic crisis. Relationships were analyzed (using chi-squared tests and multivariate modelling via binary logistic regression) between clinical, social/employment-related and demographic factors associated and long-term sickness absence (>60 consecutive days) due to mental disorders in a cohort of 7112 Spanish patients during the period 2008-2012. Older age, severe mental disorders, being self-employed, having a non-permanent contract, and working in the real estate and construction sector were associated with an increased probability of long-term sickness absence (gender had a mediating role with respect to some of these variables). Relapses were associated with short-term sick leave (return to work due to 'improvement') and with working in the transport sector and public administration. Aside from medical factors, other social/employment-related and demographic factors have a significant influence on the duration of sickness absence due to mental disorders.

Sleep variability in adolescence is associated with altered brain development.

PubMed

Telzer, Eva H; Goldenberg, Diane; Fuligni, Andrew J; Lieberman, Matthew D; Gálvan, Adriana

2015-08-01

Despite the known importance of sleep for brain development, and the sharp increase in poor sleep during adolescence, we know relatively little about how sleep impacts the developing brain. We present the first longitudinal study to examine how sleep during adolescence is associated with white matter integrity. We find that greater variability in sleep duration one year prior to a DTI scan is associated with lower white matter integrity above and beyond the effects of sleep duration, and variability in bedtime, whereas sleep variability a few months prior to the scan is not associated with white matter integrity. Thus, variability in sleep duration during adolescence may have long-term impairments on the developing brain. White matter integrity should be increasing during adolescence, and so sleep variability is directly at odds with normative developmental trends. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chong; Li, Daiqing; Gao, Yanni; Liu, Wenfeng; Zhang, Linbo

2017-07-01

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956-2012. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.

Trajectories of grassland ecosystem change in response to experimental manipulations of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Alan; Smith, Melinda; Collins, Scott; Blair, John; Briggs, John

2010-05-01

Understanding and predicting the dynamics of ecological systems has always been central to Ecology. Today, ecologists recognize that in addition to natural and human-caused disturbances, a fundamentally different type of ecosystem change is being driven by the combined and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities affecting earth's climate and biogeochemical cycles. This type of change is historically unprecedented in magnitude, and as a consequence, such alterations are leading to trajectories of change in ecological responses that differ radically from those observed in the past. Through both short- and long-term experiments, we have been trying to better understand the mechanisms and consequences of ecological change in grassland ecosystems likely to result from changes in precipitation regimes. We have manipulated a key resource for most grasslands (water) and modulators of water availability (temperature) in field experiments that vary from 1-17 years in duration, and used even longer-term monitoring data from the Konza Prairie LTER program to assess how grassland communities and ecosystems will respond to changes in water availability. Trajectories of change in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in sites subjected to 17 years of soil water augmentation were strongly non-linear with a marked increase in the stimulation of ANPP after year 8 (from 25% to 65%). Lags in alterations in grassland community composition are posited to be responsible for the form of this trajectory of change. In contrast, responses in ANPP to chronic increases in soil moisture variability appear to have decreased over a 10-yr period of manipulation, although the net effects of more variable precipitation inputs were to reduce ANPP, alter the genetic structure of the dominant grass species, increase soil nitrogen availability and reduce soil respiration. The loss of sensitivity to increased resource variability was not reflected in adjacent plots where precipitation was manipulated for only a single year. And when similar short-term experimental manipulations of precipitation variability were conducted in more arid grasslands, responses in ANPP were opposite those in mesic grassland. This suggests that grassland responses to alterations in precipitation inputs may vary dramatically depending on the long-term hydrologic regime.

Seasonal Trends of Soiling on Photovoltaic Systems: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muller, Matthew T; Ruth, Daniel; Micheli, Leonardo

This work investigates the seasonal variability of PV soiling losses over a 12-month period for sixteen soiling stations deployed in the USA. A new parameter able to rank the sites according to the cumulative losses occurring over 3- and 6- month periods is presented. The relations between soiling losses and particulate matter are briefly discussed as well. Moving from long-term to shorter-term data increases the complexity of the analysis: monthly correlations are found to have lower accuracy than the longer term ones presented in the literature.

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and Long-term Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, B.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Cooper, A.; Bailey, H. J.; Rucker, M.

2013-12-01

The use of wind power is growing rapidly in the Pacific Northwest (PNW ) due to environmental concerns, decreasing costs of implementation, strong wind speeds, and a desire to diversify electricity sources to minimize the impacts of streamflow variability on electricity prices and system flexibility. In hydroelectric dominated systems, like the PNW, the benefits of wind power can be maximized by accounting for the relationship between long term variability in wind speeds and reservoir inflows. Clean energy policies in British Columbia make the benefits of increased wind power generation during low streamflow periods particularly large, by preventing the overbuilding of marginal hydroelectric projects. The goal of this work was to quantify long-term relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior in British Columbia. Wind speed data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and cumulative usable inflows (CUI) from BC Hydro were used to analyze 10m wind speed and density (WD) trends, WD-CUI correlations, and WD anomalies during low and high inflow periods in the PNW (40°N to 65°N, 110°W to 135°W) from 1979-2010. Statistically significant positive wind speed and density trends were found for most of the PNW, with the largest increases along the Pacific Coast. CUI-WD correlations were weakly positive for most regions, with the highest values along the US coast (r ~0.55), generally weaker correlations to the north, and negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC's North Coast. When considering seasonal relationships, the Spring freshet was coincident with lower WD anomalies west of the Rocky Mountains and higher WDs to the east. A similar but opposite pattern was observed for low inflow winter months. When considering interannual variability, lowest inflow years experienced positive WD anomalies (up to 40% increases) for the North Coast. In highest inflow years, positive WD anomalies were widespread in the US and for smaller patches of central BC. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind (WD) and streamflow (CUI) behaviour during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized.

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

[Associations of the Employment Status during the First 2 Years Following Medical Rehabilitation and Long Term Occupational Trajectories: Implications for Outcome Measurement].

PubMed

Holstiege, J; Kaluscha, R; Jankowiak, S; Krischak, G

2017-02-01

Study Objectives: The aim was to investigate the predictive value of the employment status measured in the 6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month after medical rehabilitation for long-term employment trajectories during 4 years. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on a 20%-sample of all patients receiving inpatient rehabilitation funded by the German pension fund. Patients aged <62 years who were treated due to musculoskeletal, cardiovascular or psychosomatic disorders during the years 2002-2005 were included and followed for 4 consecutive years. The predictive value of the employment status in 4 predefined months after discharge (6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month), for the total number of months in employment in 4 years following rehabilitative treatment was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Per time point, separate regression analyses were conducted, including the employment status (employed vs. unemployed) at the respective point in time as explanatory variable, besides a standard set of additional prognostic variables. Results: A total of 252 591 patients were eligible for study inclusion. The level of explained variance of the regression models increased with the point in time used to measure the employment status, included as explanatory variable. Overall the R²-measure increased by 30% from the regression model that included the employment status in the 6 th month (R²=0.60) to the model that included the work status in the 24 th month (R²=0.78). Conclusion: The degree of accuracy in the prognosis of long-term employment biographies increases with the point in time used to measure employment in the first 2 years following rehabilitation. These findings should be taken into consideration for the predefinition of time points used to measure the employment status in future studies. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Synaptic dynamics contribute to long-term single neuron response fluctuations.

PubMed

Reinartz, Sebastian; Biro, Istvan; Gal, Asaf; Giugliano, Michele; Marom, Shimon

2014-01-01

Firing rate variability at the single neuron level is characterized by long-memory processes and complex statistics over a wide range of time scales (from milliseconds up to several hours). Here, we focus on the contribution of non-stationary efficacy of the ensemble of synapses-activated in response to a given stimulus-on single neuron response variability. We present and validate a method tailored for controlled and specific long-term activation of a single cortical neuron in vitro via synaptic or antidromic stimulation, enabling a clear separation between two determinants of neuronal response variability: membrane excitability dynamics vs. synaptic dynamics. Applying this method we show that, within the range of physiological activation frequencies, the synaptic ensemble of a given neuron is a key contributor to the neuronal response variability, long-memory processes and complex statistics observed over extended time scales. Synaptic transmission dynamics impact on response variability in stimulation rates that are substantially lower compared to stimulation rates that drive excitability resources to fluctuate. Implications to network embedded neurons are discussed.

Long-term blood pressure variability in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its impact on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in RA: a population-based comparative cohort study

PubMed Central

Myasoedova, Elena; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Green, Abigail B.; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine long-term visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) vs non-RA subjects and to assess its impact on cardiovascular events and mortality in RA. Methods Clinic BP measures were collected in a population-based incident cohort of RA patients (1987 ACR criteria met between 1/1/1995 and 1/1/2008) and non-RA subjects. BP variability was defined as within-subject standard deviation (SD) in systolic and diastolic BP. Results Study included 442 RA patients (mean age 55.5 years, 70% females) and 424 non-RA subjects (mean age 55.7 years, 69% females). RA patients had higher visit-to-visit variability in systolic BP (13.8±4.7 mm Hg), than non-RA subjects (13.0±5.2 mm Hg, p=0.004). Systolic BP variability declined after the index date in RA (p<0.001), but not in the non-RA cohort (p=0.73), adjusting for age, sex and calendar year of RA. During the mean follow-up of 7.1 years, 33 cardiovascular events and 57 deaths occurred in RA cohort. Visit-to-visit systolic BP variability was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mm Hg increase in BP variability 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.25); diastolic BP variability was associated with all-cause mortality in RA (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.03-1.27), adjusting for systolic and diastolic BP, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, dyslipidemia, use of antihypertensives. Conclusion Patients with RA had higher visit-to-visit systolic BP variability vs non-RA subjects. There was a significant decline in systolic BP variability after RA incidence. Higher visit-to-visit BP variability was associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in RA. PMID:24986852

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Broderick, Ciaran; Burt, Timothy P.; Curley, Mary; Duffy, Catriona; Hall, Julia; Harrigan, Shaun; Matthews, Tom K. R.; Macdonald, Neil; McCarthy, Gerard; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ryan, Ciara; Sweeney, John; Thorne, Peter W.; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.

2018-03-01

A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

Stability and predictors of change in salivary cortisol measures over six years: MESA.

PubMed

Wang, Xu; Sánchez, Brisa N; Golden, Sherita Hill; Shrager, Sandi; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Karlamangla, Arun S; Seeman, Teresa E; Roux, Ana V Diez

2014-11-01

A major challenge in characterizing features of the daily cortisol curve is variability in features over time. Few studies have examined the stability of daily features of the cortisol curve over long periods or the predictors of long term changes. Repeated salivary cortisol measures on 580 adults from the MESA Stress study were used to examine the stability of various features of the daily cortisol curve (wakeup value, the cortisol awakening response (CAR), the early and late decline slope and the area under the curve (AUC)), over short periods (several days) and long periods (approximately 6-years) and to investigate the association of demographic factors with the changes. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to estimate the short and long term stability. Piecewise linear mixed models were used to assess factors associated with changes in features over time. For most features, short term stability (ICCs: 0.17-0.74) was higher than long term stability (ICCs: 0.05-0.42), and long term stability was highest when several days were averaged for each time point. The decline over the day showed the highest long term stability: when several days for each wave were averaged the stability of the daily decline slope across 6 years was similar (or higher) than the stability across short periods. AUC had high stability over short periods (ICCs: 0.65-0.74) but much lower stability across long periods (ICC: 0.05). All features of daily cortisol curve investigated changed significantly over the approximately 6 year follow-up period. The wakeup cortisol became higher; the CAR became smaller; both the early and late decline became flatter; and the AUC became larger. Hispanics experienced significantly larger increases in the wakeup value; and African-Americans and Hispanics showed less flattening over time of the early decline slope than Non-Hispanic Whites. Our findings have implications for characterization of features in studies linking cortisol to health outcomes. The presence of variability over time suggests opportunities for future investigation of the predictors of changes over time as well as the links between these changes and health outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III; Wilson, Robert S.

2003-01-01

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird.

PubMed

Kruuk, Loeske E B; Osmond, Helen L; Cockburn, Andrew

2015-08-01

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreiber, Jeffrey; Shah, Ashwin

2005-01-01

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

2004-01-01

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toro A., Richard; Araya, Consuelo; Labra O., Felipe; Morales, Luis; Morales, Raúl G. E.; Leiva G., Manuel A.

2017-12-01

South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from -0.3 to -4% dec-1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than -10% dec-1 was found at high latitudes (1980-1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of -2.0 ± 0.6% dec-1 at latitudes below 40° S and -6.9 ± 2.0% dec-1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec-1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that at high latitudes, the main driver of interannual variability in the TOC is the total effective amount of halogens, followed by the eddy heat flux.

Variability of ribosomal RNA genes in Rauwolfia species: parallelism between tissue culture-induced rearrangements and interspecies polymorphism.

PubMed

Andreev, I O; Spiridonova, K V; Solovyan, V T; Kunakh, V A

2005-01-01

An analysis of 18S-25S and 5S rRNA genes in intact plants and cultured tissues of some Rauwolfia species was performed to compare these sequences variability occurred as a result of the species evolution in nature and that induced by tissue culture. The restriction fragment length polymorphism of 18S-25S and 5S rDNA was found both in intact plants of various Rauwolfia species and in long-term Rauwolfia serpentina tissue cultures. In addition, changes in the amount of 18S-25S rRNA genes were observed in long-term R. serpentina tissue cultures. The results demonstrate that rDNA variability observed in intact plants as well as in long-term cultures is attributed to differences in the same regions of ribosomal RNA genes.

The dynamics of zooxanthellae populations: A long-term study in the field

PubMed

Fagoonee; Wilson; Hassell; Turner

1999-02-05

Coral bleaching characterized by the expulsion of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) is an increasing problem worldwide. Global warming has been implicated as one cause, but the phenomenon cannot be fully comprehended without an understanding of the variability of zooxanthellae populations in field conditions. Results from a 6-year field study are presented, providing evidence of density regulation but also of large variability in the zooxanthellae population with regular episodes of very low densities. These bleaching events are likely to be part of a constant variability in zooxanthellae density caused by environmental fluctuations superimposed on a strong seasonal cycle in abundance.

Predictors for increasing eligibility level among home help service users in the Japanese long-term care insurance system.

PubMed

Kamiya, Kuniyasu; Sasou, Kenji; Fujita, Makoto; Yamada, Sumio

2013-01-01

This cross-sectional study described the prevalence of possible risk factors for increasing eligibility level of long-term care insurance in home help service users who were certified as support level 1-2 or care level 1-2 in Japan. Data were collected from October 2011 to November 2011. Variables included eligibility level, grip strength, calf circumference (CC), functional limitations, body mass index, memory impairment, depression, social support, and nutrition status. A total of 417 subjects (109 males and 308 females, mean age 83 years) were examined. There were 109 subjects with memory impairment. When divided by cut-off values, care level 2 was found to have higher prevalence of low grip strength, low CC, and depression. Some potentially modifiable factors such as muscle strength could be the risk factors for increasing eligibility level.

Climate Change and Political Instability in Syria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, C. P.; Mohtadi, S.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.; Kushnir, Y.

2013-12-01

From 2005 to 2010, Syria experienced the most severe and persistent drought in the instrumental record, devastating the agriculture and causing widespread crop failure. A mass migration of farming families to urban peripheries followed the resulting food shortages, unemployment, and disruption of rural social structure. The addition of nearly 1.5 million drought refugees to the recent influx of Iraqi refugees greatly exacerbated conditions in the urban slums. Anger at the government's failure to respond to the drought's impacts contributed to the political unrest that began in March 2011. The recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without the trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. Compared to the natural variability alone, the trend has made the occurrence of such a severe drought eight times more likely. There has been also a long-term warming trend in Syria, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with observed increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. The severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, implicated as a cause of the current conflict, is highly likely to be a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-12-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw process... concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily COD load in the raw (untreated...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw process... concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily COD load in the raw (untreated...

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

Suspended sediment load in northwestern South America (Colombia): A new view on variability and fluxes into the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo López, Juan Camilo; Orejarena R, Andrés F.; Torregroza, Ana Carolina

2017-12-01

Monthly averaged suspended sediment load data from seven rivers in northern Colombia (Caribbean alluvial plain) draining into the Caribbean Sea were analyzed to quantify magnitudes, estimate long-term trends, and evaluate variability patterns of suspended sediment load. Collectively these rivers deliver an average of around 146.3 × 106 t yr-1 of suspended sediments to the Colombian Caribbean coast. The largest sediment supply is provided by the Magdalena River, with a mean suspended sediment load of 142.6 × 106 t yr-1, or 38% of the total fluvial discharge estimated for the whole Caribbean littoral zone. Between 2000 and 2010, the annual suspended sediment load of these rivers increased by as much as 36%. Wavelet spectral analyses identified periods of intense variability between 1987-1990 and 1994-2002, where major oscillation processes appeared simultaneously. The semi-annual, annual and quasi-decadal bands are the main factors controlling suspended sediment load variability in fluvial systems, whereas the quasi-biennial and interannual bands constitute second-order sources of variability. The climatic and oceanographic drivers of the oscillations identified through wavelet spectral analyses define a signal of medium-long-term variability for the suspended sediment load, while the physiographic and environmental characteristics of the basins determine their ability to magnify, attenuate or modify this signal.

The perils of climate change: In utero exposure to temperature variability and birth outcomes in the Andean region.

PubMed

Molina, Oswaldo; Saldarriaga, Victor

2017-02-01

The discussion on the effects of climate change on human activity has primarily focused on how increasing temperature levels can impair human health. However, less attention has been paid to the effect of increased climate variability on health. We investigate how in utero exposure to temperature variability, measured as the fluctuations relative to the historical local temperature mean, affects birth outcomes in the Andean region. Our results suggest that exposure to a temperate one standard deviation relative to the municipality's long-term temperature mean during pregnancy reduces birth weight by 20g. and increases the probability a child is born with low birth weight by a 0.7 percentage point. We also explore potential channels driving our results and find some evidence that increased temperature variability can lead to a decrease in health care and increased food insecurity during pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael

2018-01-01

Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the ‘environmental refugee’ hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, optimal precipitation and high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation of environmental migration in which households draw on a range of strategies to cope with environmental variability. PMID:29375196

Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Call, Maia A; Gray, Clark; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael

2017-09-01

Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the 'environmental refugee' hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, optimal precipitation and high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation of environmental migration in which households draw on a range of strategies to cope with environmental variability.

Long tree-ring chronologies provide evidence of recent tree growth decrease in a Central African tropical forest.

PubMed

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Zalloni, Enrica; Castaldi, Simona; Marzaioli, Fabio; Cazzolla-Gatti, Roberto; Lasserre, Bruno; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Valentini, Riccardo

2015-01-01

It is still unclear whether the exponential rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration has produced a fertilization effect on tropical forests, thus incrementing their growth rate, in the last two centuries. As many factors affect tree growth patterns, short -term studies might be influenced by the confounding effect of several interacting environmental variables on plant growth. Long-term analyses of tree growth can elucidate long-term trends of plant growth response to dominant drivers. The study of annual rings, applied to long tree-ring chronologies in tropical forest trees enables such analysis. Long-term tree-ring chronologies of three widespread African species were measured in Central Africa to analyze the growth of trees over the last two centuries. Growth trends were correlated to changes in global atmospheric CO2 concentration and local variations in the main climatic drivers, temperature and rainfall. Our results provided no evidence for a fertilization effect of CO2 on tree growth. On the contrary, an overall growth decline was observed for all three species in the last century, which appears to be significantly correlated to the increase in local temperature. These findings provide additional support to the global observations of a slowing down of C sequestration in the trunks of forest trees in recent decades. Data indicate that the CO2 increase alone has not been sufficient to obtain a tree growth increase in tropical trees. The effect of other changing environmental factors, like temperature, may have overridden the fertilization effect of CO2.

Long Tree-Ring Chronologies Provide Evidence of Recent Tree Growth Decrease in a Central African Tropical Forest

PubMed Central

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Zalloni, Enrica; Castaldi, Simona; Marzaioli, Fabio; Cazzolla- Gatti, Roberto; Lasserre, Bruno; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Valentini, Riccardo

2015-01-01

It is still unclear whether the exponential rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration has produced a fertilization effect on tropical forests, thus incrementing their growth rate, in the last two centuries. As many factors affect tree growth patterns, short -term studies might be influenced by the confounding effect of several interacting environmental variables on plant growth. Long-term analyses of tree growth can elucidate long-term trends of plant growth response to dominant drivers. The study of annual rings, applied to long tree-ring chronologies in tropical forest trees enables such analysis. Long-term tree-ring chronologies of three widespread African species were measured in Central Africa to analyze the growth of trees over the last two centuries. Growth trends were correlated to changes in global atmospheric CO2 concentration and local variations in the main climatic drivers, temperature and rainfall. Our results provided no evidence for a fertilization effect of CO2 on tree growth. On the contrary, an overall growth decline was observed for all three species in the last century, which appears to be significantly correlated to the increase in local temperature. These findings provide additional support to the global observations of a slowing down of C sequestration in the trunks of forest trees in recent decades. Data indicate that the CO2 increase alone has not been sufficient to obtain a tree growth increase in tropical trees. The effect of other changing environmental factors, like temperature, may have overridden the fertilization effect of CO2. PMID:25806946

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Spectral and Timing States in Black Hole Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilms, J.

Results on the long term variability of galactic black hole candidates are reviewed. I mainly present the results of a > 2 year long campaign with RXTE to monitor the canonical soft state black hole candidates LMC X-1 and LMC X-3 using monthly observations. These observations are presented within the context of the RXTE-ASM long term quasi-periodic variability on timescales of about 150d. For LMC X-3, times of low ASM count rate are correlated with a significant hardening of the X-ray spectrum. The observation with the lowest flux during the whole monitoring campaign can be modeled with a simple γ=1.7 power law -- a hard state spectrum. Since these spectral hardenings occur on the 150 d timescale it is probable that they are associated with periodic changes in the accretion rate. Possible causes for this behavior are discussed, e.g. a wind driven limit-cycle or long-term variability of the donor star.

Redintegration and the benefits of long-term knowledge in verbal short-term memory: an evaluation of Schweickert's (1993) multinomial processing tree model.

PubMed

Thorn, Annabel S C; Gathercole, Susan E; Frankish, Clive R

2005-03-01

The impact of four long-term knowledge variables on serial recall accuracy was investigated. Serial recall was tested for high and low frequency words and high and low phonotactic frequency nonwords in 2 groups: monolingual English speakers and French-English bilinguals. For both groups the recall advantage for words over nonwords reflected more fully correct recalls with fewer recall attempts that consisted of fragments of the target memory items (one or two of the three target phonemes recalled correctly); completely incorrect recalls were equivalent for the 2 list types. However, word frequency (for both groups), nonword phonotactic frequency (for the monolingual group), and language familiarity all influenced the proportions of completely incorrect recalls that were made. These results are not consistent with the view that long-term knowledge influences on immediate recall accuracy can be exclusively attributed to a redintegration process of the type specified in multinomial processing tree model of immediate recall. The finding of a differential influence on completely incorrect recalls of these four long-term knowledge variables suggests instead that the beneficial effects of long-term knowledge on short-term recall accuracy are mediated by more than one mechanism.

Reward Value Effects on Timing in the Peak Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galtress, Tiffany; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2009-01-01

Three experiments examined the effect of motivational variables on timing in the peak procedure. In Experiment 1, rats received a 60-s peak procedure that was coupled with long-term, between-phase changes in reinforcer magnitude. Increases in reinforcer magnitude produced a leftward shift in the peak that persisted for 20 sessions of training. In…

Long-term monitoring of river basins: strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howden, N. J. K.; Burt, T. P.

2016-12-01

In a world where equilibrium is more and more uncommon, monitoring is an essential way to discover whether undesirable change is taking place. Monitoring requires a deliberate plan of action: the regular collection and processing of information. Long-term data reveal important patterns, allowing trends, cycles, and rare events to be identified. This is particularly important for complex systems where signals may be subtle and slow to emerge. Moreover, very long data sets are essential to test hypotheses undreamt of at the time the monitoring was started. This overview includes long time series from UK river basins showing how hydrology and water quality have changed over time - and continue to change. An important conclusion is the long time frame of system recovery, well beyond the normal lifetime of individual governments or research grants. At a time of increasing hydroclimatic variability, long time series remain crucially important; in particular, continuity of observations is vital at key benchmark sites.

[From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

PubMed

Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

2013-01-01

When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

Phytomonitoring of chlorinated ethenes in trees: a four-year study of seasonal chemodynamics in planta.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt A; Holmes, Amanda J; Burken, Joel G

2014-09-16

Long-term monitoring (LTM) of groundwater remedial projects is costly and time-consuming, particularly when using phytoremediation, a long-term remedial approach. The use of trees as sensors of groundwater contamination (i.e., phytoscreening) has been widely described, although the use of trees to provide long-term monitoring of such plumes (phytomonitoring) has been more limited due to unexplained variability of contaminant concentrations in trees. To assess this variability, we developed an in planta sampling method to obtain high-frequency measurements of chlorinated ethenes in oak (Quercus rubra) and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) trees growing above a contaminated plume during a 4-year trial. The data set revealed that contaminant concentrations increased rapidly with transpiration in the spring and decreased in the fall, resulting in perchloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) sapwood concentrations an order of magnitude higher in late summer as compared to winter. Heartwood PCE and TCE concentrations were more buffered against seasonal effects. Rainfall events caused negligible dilution of contaminant concentrations in trees after precipitation events. Modeling evapotranspiration potential from meteorological data and comparing the modeled uptake and transport with the 4 years of high frequency data provides a foundation to advance the implementation of phytomonitoring and improved understanding of plant contaminant interactions.

[Impact of nurse, nurses' aid staffing and turnover rate on inpatient health outcomes in long term care hospitals].

PubMed

Kim, Yunmi; Lee, Ji Yun; Kang, Hyuncheol

2014-02-01

This study was conducted to explore the impact of registered nurse/nurses' aid (RN/NA) staffing and turnover rate on inpatient health outcomes in long term care hospitals. A secondary analysis was done of national data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services including evaluation of long term care hospitals in October-December 2010 and hospital general characteristics in July-September 2010. Final analysis of data from 610 hospitals included RN/NA staffing, turnover rate of nursing staff and 5 patient health outcome indicators. Finding showed that, when variables of organization and community level were controlled, patients per RN was a significant indicator of decline in ADL for patients with dementia, and new pressure ulcer development in the high risk group and worsening of pressure ulcers. Patients per NA was a significant indicator for new pressure ulcer development in the low risk group. Turnover rate was not significant for any variable. To maintain and improve patient health outcomes of ADL and pressure ulcers, policies should be developed to increase the staffing level of RN. Studies are also needed to examine causal relation of NA staffing level, RN staffing level and patient health outcomes with consideration of the details of nursing practice.

Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, Hong; Roberts, Andrew P.; Dekkers, Mark J.; Liu, Xiaodong; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shi, Zhengguo; An, Zhisheng; Zhao, Xiang

2016-06-01

Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (∼8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, H.; Roberts, A. P.; Dekkers, M. J.; Liu, X.; Rohling, E. J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

2016-12-01

Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (˜8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

Importance of blood pressure variability in organ protection in spontaneously hypertensive rats treated with combination of nitrendipine and atenolol.

PubMed

Xie, He-Hui; Miao, Chao-Yu; Liu, Jian-Guo; Su, Ding-Feng

2002-12-01

To study the importance of reduction of blood pressure variability (BPV) in the organ protection of long-term treatment with combination of nitrendipine and atenolol, which was abbreviated as Nile, in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). Combination of nitrendipine (10 mg/kg/d) and atenolol (20 mg/kg/d) was given in SHR chow for 12 weeks. Blood pressure (BP) was then recorded during 24 h in conscious state. After the determination of baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), rats were killed for organ-damage evaluation. Long-term treatment with Nile significantly decreased BP and BPV, ameliorated impaired BRS, and obviously diminished end-organ damage in SHR. The indices of left ventricular and aortic hypertrophy, and glomerulosclerosis score were all positively related to BP and BPV, and negatively related to BRS in untreated and Nile-treated SHR. Multiple-regression analysis showed that decrease in left ventricular and aortic hypertrophy was mainly related to the decrease in systolic BPV, and amelioration in renal lesion was mainly determined by increase in BRS. Long-term treatment with Nile possessed obvious organ protection in SHR. Besides the BP reduction, the decrease in BPV and the restoration of BRS may importantly contribute to this organ protection.

A Review of the Long-Term Effects of Child Sexual Abuse.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beitchman, Joseph H.; And Others

1992-01-01

Evidence suggests that sexual abuse has serious long-term effects; but specific effects, independent of force, threatened force, or family variables such as parental psychopathology, are not yet clarified. Effects among adults in terms of their relationship to sexual dysfunction, depression, anxiety, fear, multiple or borderline personality…

Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability, New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus, and New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population.

PubMed

Yano, Yuichiro; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Kramer, Holly; Sato, Yuji; Konta, Tsuneo; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Narita, Ichiei; Kondo, Masahide; Kimura, Kenjiro; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

2015-07-01

Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SDSBP (per 5 mmHg), SDDBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variabilitySBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variabilityDBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SDBP and average real variabilityBP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width without discharge variability does not induce a significant difference in the predicted long-term incision law and scaling of relief with incision rate at steady-state. We conclude that the simple stream power law models currently in use are false, and that details of short-term fluvial dynamics must make their way into long-term evolution models to avoid oversimplifying the coupled dynamics between erosion, tectonics and climate.

Annual primary production: Patterns and mechanisms of change in a nutrient-rich tidal ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jassby, Alan D.; Cloern, James E.; Cole, B.E.

2002-01-01

Although nutrient supply often underlies long-term changes in aquatic primary production, other regulatory processes can be important. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex of tidal waterways forming the landward portion of the San Francisco Estuary, has ample nutrient supplies, enabling us to examine alternate regulatory mechanisms over a 21-yr period. Delta-wide primary productivity was reconstructed from historical water quality data for 1975–1995. Annual primary production averaged 70 g C m−2, but it varied by over a factor of five among years. At least four processes contributed to this variability: (1) invasion of the clam Potamocorbula amurensis led to a persistent decrease in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) after 1986; (2) a long-term decline in total suspended solids—probably at least partly because of upstream dam construction—increased water transparency and phytoplankton growth rate; (3) river inflow, reflecting climate variability, affected biomass through fluctuations in flushing and growth rates through fluctuations in total suspended solids; and (4) an additional pathway manifesting as a long-term decline in winter phytoplankton biomass has been identified, but its genesis is uncertain. Overall, the Delta lost 43% in annual primary production during the period. Given the evidence for food limitation of primary consumers, these findings provide a partial explanation for widespread Delta species declines over the past few decades. Turbid nutrient-rich systems such as the Delta may be inherently more variable than other tidal systems because certain compensatory processes are absent. Comparisons among systems, however, can be tenuous because conclusions about the magnitude and mechanisms of variability are dependent on length of data record.  

On the long term evolution of white dwarfs in cataclysmic variables and their recurrence times

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sion, E. M.; Starrfield, S. G.

1985-01-01

The relevance of the long term quasi-static evolution of accreting white dwarfs to the outbursts of Z Andromeda-like symbiotics; the masses and accretion rates of classical nova white dwarfs; and the observed properties of white dwarfs detected optically and with IUE in low M dot cataclysmic variables is discussed. A surface luminosity versus time plot for a massive, hot white dwarf bears a remarkable similarity to the outburst behavior of the hot blue source in Z Andromeda. The long term quasi-static models of hot accreting white dwarfs provide convenient constraints on the theoretically permissible parameters to give a dynamical (nova-like) outburst of classic white dwarfs.

Long-Period Variability in o Ceti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

2009-02-01

We carried out a new and sensitive search for long-period variability in the prototype of the Mira class of long-period pulsating variables, o Ceti (Mira A), the closest and brightest Mira variable. We conducted this search using an unbroken light curve from 1902 to the present, assembled from the visual data archives of five major variable star observing organizations from around the world. We applied several time-series analysis techniques to search for two specific kinds of variability: long secondary periods (LSPs) longer than the dominant pulsation period of ~333 days, and long-term period variation in the dominant pulsation period itself. The data quality is sufficient to detect coherent periodic variations with photometric amplitudes of 0.05 mag or less. We do not find evidence for coherent LSPs in o Ceti to a limit of 0.1 mag, where the amplitude limit is set by intrinsic, stochastic, low-frequency variability of approximately 0.1 mag. We marginally detect a slight modulation of the pulsation period similar in timescale to that observed in the Miras with meandering periods, but with a much lower period amplitude of ±2 days. However, we do find clear evidence of a low-frequency power-law component in the Fourier spectrum of o Ceti's long-term light curve. The amplitude of this stochastic variability is approximately 0.1 mag at a period of 1000 days, and it exhibits a turnover for periods longer than this. This spectrum is similar to the red noise spectra observed in red supergiants.

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

Long-term behavioral sensitization to apomorphine is independent of conditioning and increases conditioned pecking, but not preference, in pigeons.

PubMed

Anselme, Patrick; Edeş, Neslihan; Tabrik, Sepideh; Güntürkün, Onur

2018-01-15

When rodents are given a free choice between a variable option and a constant option, they may prefer variability. This preference is even sometimes increased following repeated administration of a dopamine agonist. The present study was the first to examine preference for variability under the systemic administration of a dopamine agonist, apomorphine (Apo), in birds. Experiment 1 tested the drug-free preference and the propensity to choose of pigeons for a constant over a variable delay. It appeared that they preferred and decided more quickly to peck at the optimal delay option. Experiment 2 assessed the effects of a repeated injection of Apo on delay preference, in comparison with previous control tests within the same individuals. Apo treatment might have decreased the number of pecks at the constant option across the different experimental phases, but failed to induce a preference for the variable option. In Experiment 3, two groups of pigeons (Apo-sensitized and saline) were used in order to avoid inhomogeneity in treatments. They had to choose between a 50% probability option and a 5-s delay option. Conditioned pecking and the propensity to choose were higher in the Apo-sensitized pigeons, but, in each group, the pigeons showed indifference between the two options. This experiment also showed that long-term behavioral sensitization to Apo can occur independently of a conditioning process. These results suggest that Apo sensitization can enhance the attractiveness of conditioned cues, while having no effect on the development of a preference for variable-delay and probabilistic schedules of reinforcement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The long- and short-term variability of breathing induced tumor motion in lung and liver over the course of a radiotherapy treatment.

PubMed

Dhont, Jennifer; Vandemeulebroucke, Jef; Burghelea, Manuela; Poels, Kenneth; Depuydt, Tom; Van Den Begin, Robbe; Jaudet, Cyril; Collen, Christine; Engels, Benedikt; Reynders, Truus; Boussaer, Marlies; Gevaert, Thierry; De Ridder, Mark; Verellen, Dirk

2018-02-01

To evaluate the short and long-term variability of breathing induced tumor motion. 3D tumor motion of 19 lung and 18 liver lesions captured over the course of an SBRT treatment were evaluated and compared to the motion on 4D-CT. An implanted fiducial could be used for unambiguous motion information. Fast orthogonal fluoroscopy (FF) sequences, included in the treatment workflow, were used to evaluate motion during treatment. Several motion parameters were compared between different FF sequences from the same fraction to evaluate the intrafraction variability. To assess interfraction variability, amplitude and hysteresis were compared between fractions and with the 3D tumor motion registered by 4D-CT. Population based margins, necessary on top of the ITV to capture all motion variability, were calculated based on the motion captured during treatment. Baseline drift in the cranio-caudal (CC) or anterior-poster (AP) direction is significant (ie. >5 mm) for a large group of patients, in contrary to intrafraction amplitude and hysteresis variability. However, a correlation between intrafraction amplitude variability and mean motion amplitude was found (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.72, p < 10 -4 ). Interfraction variability in amplitude is significant for 46% of all lesions. As such, 4D-CT accurately captures the motion during treatment for some fractions but not for all. Accounting for motion variability during treatment increases the PTV margins in all directions, most significantly in CC from 5 mm to 13.7 mm for lung and 8.0 mm for liver. Both short-term and day-to-day tumor motion variability can be significant, especially for lesions moving with amplitudes above 7 mm. Abandoning passive motion management strategies in favor of more active ones is advised. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Innovative Strategy For Long Term Monitoring Of Metal And Radionuclide Plumes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eddy-Dilek, Carol; Millings, Margaret R.; Looney, Brian B.

2014-01-08

Many government and private industry sites that were once contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. The sites will require long term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality at these "legacy" sites. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site, the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. There is a need to optimize the performance and manage the costmore » of long term surveillance and monitoring at their sites. Currently, SRNL is initiating a pilot field test using alternative protocols for long term monitoring of metals and radionuclides. A key component of the approach is that monitoring efforts are focused on measurement of low cost metrics related to hydrologic and chemical conditions that control contaminant migration. The strategy combines careful monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions with measurement of master variables such as chemical surrogates along with a smaller number of standard well analyses. In plumes contaminated with metals, master variables control the chemistry of the groundwater system, and include redox variables (ORP, DO, chemicals), pH, specific conductivity, biological community (breakdown/decay products), and temperature. Significant changes in these variables will result in conditions whereby the plume may not be stable and therefore can be used to predict possible plume migration. Conversely, concentration measurements for all types of contaminants in groundwater are a lagging indicator plume movement - major changes contaminant concentrations indicate that contamination has migrated. An approach based on measurement of master variables and explicit monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions combined with traditional metrics should lead to improved monitoring while simultaneously reducing costs. This paradigm is being tested at the SRS F-Area where an innovative passive remedial system is being monitored and evaluated over the long term prior to traditional regulatory closure. Contaminants being addressed at this site are uranium, strontium-90, iodine-129, and tritium. We believe that the proposed strategies will be more effective in early identification of potential risks; these strategies will also be cost effective because controlling variables are relatively simple to measure. These variables also directly reflect the evolution of the plume through time, so that the monitoring strategy can be modified as the plume 'ages'. This transformational long-term monitoring paradigm will generate large cost savings to DOE, other federal agencies and industry and will provide improved performance and leading indicators of environmental management performance.« less

Long-term outcomes of urinary tract reconstruction in patients with neurogenic urinary tract dysfunction

PubMed Central

Johnson, E. U.; Singh, Gurpreet

2013-01-01

The advent of specialized spinal units and better understanding of the pathophysiology of neurogenic urinary tract dysfunction has made long-term survival of these patients a reality. This has, in turn, led to an increase in quality and choice of management modalities offered to these patients including complex anatomic urinary tract reconstructive procedures tailored to the unique needs of each individual with variable outcomes. We performed a literature review evaluating the long-term outcomes of these reconstructive procedures. To achieve this, we conducted a world-wide electronic literature search of long-term outcomes published in English. As the premise of this review is long-term outcomes, we have focused on pathologies where evidence of long-term outcome is available such as patients with spinal injuries and spina bifida. Therapeutic success following urinary tract reconstruction is usually measured by preservation of renal function, improvement in quality-of-life, the satisfactory achievement of agreed outcomes and the prevention of serious complications. Prognostic factors include neuropathic detrusor overactivity; sphincter dyssynergia; bladder over distension; high pressure storage and high leak point pressures; vesicoureteric reflex, stone formation and urinary tract infections. Although, the past decade has witnessed a reduction in the total number of bladder reconstructive surgeries in the UK, these procedures are essentially safe and effective; but require long-term clinical and functional follow-up/monitoring. Until tissue engineering and gene therapy becomes more mainstream, we feel there is still a place for urinary tract reconstruction in patients with neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction. PMID:24235796

Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

2017-04-01

We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Long-term aircraft noise exposure and body mass index, waist circumference, and type 2 diabetes: a prospective study.

PubMed

Eriksson, Charlotta; Hilding, Agneta; Pyko, Andrei; Bluhm, Gösta; Pershagen, Göran; Östenson, Claes-Göran

2014-07-01

Long-term aircraft noise exposure may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but no study has investigated chronic effects on the metabolic system. The aim of this study was to investigate effects of long-term aircraft noise exposure on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, we explored the modifying effects of sleep disturbance. This prospective cohort study of residents of Stockholm County, Sweden, followed 5,156 participants with normal baseline oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) for up to 10 years. Exposure to aircraft noise was estimated based on residential history. Information on outcomes and confounders was obtained from baseline and follow-up surveys and examinations, and participants who developed prediabetes or type 2 diabetes were identified by self-reported physician diagnosis or OGTT at follow-up. Adjusted associations were assessed by linear, logistic, and random-effects models. The mean (± SD) increases in BMI and waist circumference during follow-up were 1.09 ± 1.97 kg/m2 and 4.39 ± 6.39 cm, respectively. The cumulative incidence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes was 8% and 3%, respectively. Based on an ordinal noise variable, a 5-dB(A) increase in aircraft noise was associated with a greater increase in waist circumference of 1.51 cm (95% CI: 1.13, 1.89), fully adjusted. This association appeared particularly strong among those who did not change their home address during the study period, which may be a result of lower exposure misclassification. However, no clear associations were found for BMI or type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, sleep disturbances did not appear to modify the associations with aircraft noise. Long-term aircraft noise exposure may be linked to metabolic outcomes, in particular increased waist circumference.

Long-term Accretion Variations of the Magnetic Cataclysmic Variable Star QQ Vulpecula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper Rose, Sanaea; Kafka, Stella; Jorgenson, Regina; Carr, Derrick; Childs, Francesca; Christenson, Holly; Karim, Md. Tanveer; Konchady, Tarini; Walker, Gary E.; Honeycutt, R. K.

2017-01-01

Magnetic cataclysmic variable stars have brightness variations that repeat with each revolution of the two stars about the center of mass of the system. However, in the case of QQ Vulpecula (QQ Vul), this brightness variation pattern changes in the long term. This study makes use of two decades worth of data from the Roboscope Telescope as well as data from the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) database to examine the long-term evolution of QQ Vul’s phase curves. Nightly observations using the Maria Mitchell Association's Vestal and Loines Observatories supplemented this analysis by clarifying short-term brightness variation. The long-term data was divided into four commonly observed behavioral types ranging from a double peaked curve of ~15.5 magnitude to a ~15.0 magnitude curve that had a primary minimum and a slow, linear rise in brightness in place of the secondary minimum. The nightly data kept within the confines of these categories, though the secondary minimum in the nightly data never vanished. No periodicity was found in the long-term variations. The model often invoked to explain the double peaked curve consists of single pole accretion in which a partial self-eclipse causes the secondary minimum and cyclotron beaming causes the primary minimum. However, the long-term variation may indicate a changing accretion rate, which may manifest itself in changes to the shape, size, or location of the accretion spot on the white dwarf such that it lessens or removes the secondary minimum. This project was supported by the NSF REU grant AST-1358980, the Massachusetts Space Grant, and the Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association.

Antiretroviral therapeutic drug monitoring in HIV-infected pregnant women: maternal immunovirological outcome at delivery and during the 18 month follow-up period.

PubMed

Nicastri, Emanuele; Ivanovic, Jelena; Signore, Fabrizio; Tempestilli, Massimo; Bellagamba, Rita; Viscione, Magdalena; Pisani, Giuseppe; Vallone, Cristina; Tommasi, Chiara; Gallo, Anna L; De Nardo, Pasquale; Pucillo, Paolo L; Narciso, Pasquale

2012-10-01

No data are available on the long-term immunovirological outcome of HIV-positive pregnant women experiencing sub-therapeutic antiretroviral drug (ARV) concentrations during pregnancy. The objective of our study was to assess the long-term virological outcome in pregnant women treated with HAART. A prospective, multi-center study enrolled 60 HIV-infected pregnant women stratified into 3 groups according to the response to HAART. Group A, women successfully treated with HAART; Group B, women with confirmed virological failure during HAART; Group C, women successfully treated with HAART during pregnancy for prevention of vertical transmission only. Smoking, alcohol use, low adherence to therapy, and increased viral load at delivery were significantly associated to virological failure at univariate analysis. At multivariate regression analysis, only adherence to therapy was reported as an independent variable related to the virological response (p < 0.001). Virological failure during follow-up was reported in 2 (25.0%) of the 8 women with sub therapeutic Ctrough and in 4 of the 33 (12.1%) women with therapeutic Ctrough (p=0.33). In group C, the viro-immunological set points during follow-up did not differ from those observed before HAART initiation. No significantly increased rate of virological failure after delivery was reported in women with sub-therapeutic ARV concentrations during pregnancy and long-term follow-up. The long-term virological outcome was independently associated to reduced adherence to therapy. Evaluation of the clinical impact of the low plasma ARV concentrations during pregnancy on the long-term virological outcome deserves further larger studies.

A mineralogical record of ocean change: Decadal and centennial patterns in the California mussel.

PubMed

McCoy, Sophie J; Kamenos, Nicholas A; Chung, Peter; Wootton, Timothy J; Pfister, Catherine A

2018-06-01

Ocean acidification, a product of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, may already have affected calcified organisms in the coastal zone, such as bivalves and other shellfish. Understanding species' responses to climate change requires the context of long-term dynamics. This can be particularly difficult given the longevity of many important species in contrast with the relatively rapid onset of environmental changes. Here, we present a unique archival dataset of mussel shells from a locale with recent environmental monitoring and historical climate reconstructions. We compare shell structure and composition in modern mussels, mussels from the 1970s, and mussel shells dating back to 1000-2420 years BP. Shell mineralogy has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, despite evidence for consistent mineral structure in the California mussel, Mytilus californianus, over the prior 2500 years. We present evidence for increased disorder in the calcium carbonate shells of mussels and greater variability between individuals. These changes in the last decade contrast markedly from a background of consistent shell mineralogy for centuries. Our results use an archival record of natural specimens to provide centennial-scale context for altered minerology and variability in shell features as a response to acidification stress and illustrate the utility of long-term studies and archival records in global change ecology. Increased variability between individuals is an emerging pattern in climate change responses, which may equally expose the vulnerability of organisms and the potential of populations for resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physiological system integrations with emphasis on the respiratory-cardiovascular system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, R. R.

1975-01-01

The integration of two types of physiological system simulations is presented. The long term model is a circulatory system model which simulates long term blood flow variations and compartmental fluid shifts. The short term models simulate transient phenomena of the respiratory, thermoregulatory, and pulsatile cardiovascular systems as they respond to stimuli such as LBNP, exercise, and environmental gaseous variations. An overview of the interfacing approach is described. Descriptions of the variable interface for long term to short term and between the three short term models are given.

Are public subsidies effective to reduce emergency care? Evidence from the PLASA study.

PubMed

Rapp, Thomas; Chauvin, Pauline; Sirven, Nicolas

2015-08-01

Elderly people facing dependence are exposed to the financial risk of long lasting care expenditures. This risk is high for people facing cognitive, functional and behavioral problems. In the short-term, dependent elderly people face increased non-medical care expenditures. In the long-term, they face increased medical care expenditures, which are driven by emergency care events such as: emergency hospitalization, emergency medical visits, and emergency institutionalizations. In France, providing public financial assistance has been shown to improve dependent people's access to non-medical care services. However, the impact of public financial assistance on emergency care use has not been explored yet. Our study aims at determining whether financial assistance on non-medical care provision decreases the probability of emergency care rates using data of 1131 French patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, collected between 2003 and 2007. Using instrumental variables to deal with the presence of a potential endogeneity bias, we find that beneficiaries of long-term care subsidies have a significantly lower rate of emergency care than non-beneficiaries. Failing to control for endogeneity problems would lead to misestimate the impact of long-term care subsidies on emergency care rates. Finding that home care subsidies has a protective effect for emergency care confirmed the efficacy of this public policy tool. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term Trend of Satellite-observed Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variations in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. E.; PARK, K. A.

2016-02-01

Long-term time-series of satellite ocean color data enable us to analyze the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem through chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. In this study, we constructed a 17 year-long time-series dataset (1998-2014) of chlorophyll-a concentration by combining SeaWiFS (Obrview-2, 1997-2010) and MODIS (Aqua, 2002-present) data in the East Sea (Japan Sea). Several types of errors such as anonymously high values (a speckle error), stripe-like patterns, discrepancy originating from time gap between the two satellites were eliminated to enhance the accuracy of chlorophyll-a concentration data. The composited chlorophyll-a concentration maps, passing through the post-processing of the speckle errors, were improved significantly, by 14% of abnormal variability in maximum. Using the database, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll-a concentration in the East Sea. Spatial distribution of long-term trend of chlorophyll-a concentration indicated obvious distinction between northern and southern regions of the subpolar front. It revealed predominant seasonal variabilities as well as long-term changes in the timings of spring bloom. This study addresses the important role of local climate change on fast changing ecosystem of the East Sea as one of miniature oceans.

HIST-EU - a dataset of European relevance, a database to enable long-term climate variability studies on regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, I.; Böhm, R.; Ganekind, M.; Schöner, W.; Nemec, J.; Chimani, B.

2010-09-01

Instrumental time series of different climate elements are an important requisite for climate and climate impact studies. Long-term time series can improve our understanding of climate change during the instrumental period. During recent decades a number of national and international initiatives in European countries have significantly increased the number of existing long-term instrumental series; however a publically available data base covering Europe has not been created so far. For the "Greater Alpine Region" (4-19 deg E, 43-49 deg N, 0-3500m asl) the HISTALP data base has been established consisting of monthly homogenised temperature, pressure, precipitation, sunshine and cloudiness records. The data set may be described as follows: Long-term (fully exploiting the potential of systematically measured data). dense (network density adequate in respect to the spatial coherence of the given climate element) quality improved (outliers removed, gaps filled) homogenised (earlier sections adjusted to the recent state of the measuring site) multiple (covering more than one climate element) user friendly (well described and kept in different modes for different applications) HIST-EU is inteded to be a data set of European relevance allowing studying climate variability on regional scale. It focuses on data collection, data recovery and rescue, and homogenizing. HIST-EU will use the infrastructure of HISTALP (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) and will allow free or restricted data access due to the regulations of data providers. HIST-EU will be carried out under the umbrella of ECSN/EUMETNET.

Conventional heart rate variability analysis of ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings fails to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vybiral, T.; Glaeser, D. H.; Goldberger, A. L.; Rigney, D. R.; Hess, K. R.; Mietus, J.; Skinner, J. E.; Francis, M.; Pratt, C. M.

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this report was to study heart rate variability in Holter recordings of patients who experienced ventricular fibrillation during the recording. BACKGROUND. Decreased heart rate variability is recognized as a long-term predictor of overall and arrhythmic death after myocardial infarction. It was therefore postulated that heart rate variability would be lowest when measured immediately before ventricular fibrillation. METHODS. Conventional indexes of heart rate variability were calculated from Holter recordings of 24 patients with structural heart disease who had ventricular fibrillation during monitoring. The control group consisted of 19 patients with coronary artery disease, of comparable age and left ventricular ejection fraction, who had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia but no ventricular fibrillation. RESULTS. Heart rate variability did not differ between the two groups, and no consistent trends in heart rate variability were observed before ventricular fibrillation occurred. CONCLUSIONS. Although conventional heart rate variability is an independent long-term predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction, its clinical utility as a short-term predictor of life-threatening arrhythmias remains to be elucidated.

Long-term functional plasticity in plant hydraulic architecture in response to supplemental moisture.

PubMed

von Arx, Georg; Archer, Steven R; Hughes, Malcolm K

2012-05-01

Plasticity in structural and functional traits related to water balance may determine plant performance and survival in ecosystems characterized by water limitation or high levels of rainfall variability, particularly in perennial herbaceous species with long generation cycles. This paper addresses whether and the extent to which several such seasonal to long-term traits respond to changes in moisture availability. Using a novel approach that integrates ecology, physiology and anatomy, a comparison was made of lifetime functional traits in the root xylem of a long-lived perennial herb (Potentilla diversifolia, Rosaceae) growing in dry habitats with those of nearby individuals growing where soil moisture had been supplemented for 14 years. Traditional parameters such as specific leaf area (SLA) and above-ground growth were also assessed. Individuals from the site receiving supplemental moisture consistently showed significant responses in all considered traits related to water balance: SLA was greater by 24 %; roots developed 19 % less starch storing tissue, an indicator for drought-stress tolerance; and vessel size distributions shifted towards wider elements that collectively conducted water 54 % more efficiently - but only during the years for which moisture was supplemented. In contrast, above-ground growth parameters showed insignificant or inconsistent responses. The phenotypic changes documented represent consistent, dynamic responses to increased moisture availability that should increase plant competitive ability. The functional plasticity of xylem anatomy quantified in this study constitutes a mechanistic basis for anticipating the differential success of plant species in response to climate variability and change, particularly where water limitation occurs.

Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

PubMed Central

Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

2010-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

Factors Associated with Long-Term Sickness Absence Due to Mental Disorders: A Cohort Study of 7.112 Patients during the Spanish Economic Crisis

PubMed Central

Real, Eva; Jover, Lluís; Verdaguer, Ricard; Griera, Antoni; Segalàs, Cinto; Alonso, Pino; Contreras, Fernando; Arteman, Antoni; Menchón, José M.

2016-01-01

Background Mental health problems are very common and often lead to prolonged sickness absence, having serious economic repercussions for most European countries. Periods of economic crisis are important social phenomena that are assumed to increase sickness absence due to mental disorders, although research on this topic remains scarce. The aim of this study was to gather data on long-term sickness absence (and relapse) due to mental disorders in Spain during a period of considerable socio-economic crisis. Methods Relationships were analyzed (using chi-squared tests and multivariate modelling via binary logistic regression) between clinical, social/employment-related and demographic factors associated and long-term sickness absence (>60 consecutive days) due to mental disorders in a cohort of 7112 Spanish patients during the period 2008–2012. Results Older age, severe mental disorders, being self-employed, having a non-permanent contract, and working in the real estate and construction sector were associated with an increased probability of long-term sickness absence (gender had a mediating role with respect to some of these variables). Relapses were associated with short-term sick leave (return to work due to ‘improvement’) and with working in the transport sector and public administration. Conclusions Aside from medical factors, other social/employment-related and demographic factors have a significant influence on the duration of sickness absence due to mental disorders. PMID:26730603

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water requirement and a significant reduction in the crop production and water use efficiency. Furthermore, the modified Mann-Kendall tests indicated that unlike temperature series, precipitation, ϕ IDM , and ϕ B series are not affected by short- and long-term memory. Our results can help decision makers and water resource managers to adopt appropriate policy strategies for sustainable development in the field of irrigated agriculture and water resources management.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

Magnitude of increase in QTc interval after initiation of dofetilide in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation is associated with increased rates of pharmacological cardioversion and long-term freedom from recurrent atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Huang, Henry D; Waks, Jonathan W; Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter

2016-07-01

Dofetilide is a class III antiarrhythmic drug approved for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Dofetilide-induced corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation is a surrogate for the degree of drug effect, but the relationships between drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, pharmacological cardioversion (PCV), and freedom from recurrent AF are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess associations between QTc interval change during dofetilide initiation and PCV and long-term AF recurrence. We performed retrospective analyses of a prospective cohort of patients with AF admitted for dofetilide initiation between 2001 and 2014. Clinical characteristics and electrocardiographic variables were assessed. We evaluated outcomes of successful PCV in patients with persistent AF and time to recurrence of AF in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. During the study, 243 patients with persistent AF and 176 patients with paroxysmal AF initiated dofetilide. PCV occurred in 93/243 (41.7%) patients with persistent AF. After multivariable adjustment, QTc interval change was associated with PCV (adjusted odds ratio 1.21; P = .003 per 10-ms QTc increase). Inhospital QTc interval change was associated with long-term freedom from AF in patients with persistent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.92; P = .011 at 4 years per 10-ms QTc increase), but not in patients with paroxysmal AF. In patients with persistent AF, PCV was also associated with long-term freedom from recurrent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; P = .009 at 4 years). The magnitude of QTc interval prolongation during dofetilide initiation is an independent predictor of successful PCV and long-term freedom from arrhythmia in patients with persistent AF. QTc interval change had no association with AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF, suggesting that different mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis may be operant in different AF types. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

PubMed

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

PubMed Central

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

Evaluating Water Quality Response and Controlling Variables for Burned Watersheds in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rust, A.; Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

2016-12-01

Increasing wildfire size and frequency in the Western United States creates short-term and long-term impacts on water quality. Surface water in forested watersheds provides water for municipal water supplies and aquatic ecosystems. After fire, increased runoff and erosion lead to elevated loading of nutrients, sediment, and metals. Studies on individual fires have observed mobilization of contaminants, nutrients, metals and sediments into receiving waters. Other studies focused on individual fires over a short period, 1-3 years after fire. The objective of this study is to utilize an extensive historical water quality database, assembled by the authors, to identify trends in post-fire water quality response for the ten years following a significant fire. Specifically, we investigate the variability of post-fire water quality response and determine the key drivers impacting the immediate contaminant flux, recovery over the longer-term and ultimate resiliency of impacted watersheds and municipal water supplies. Results show that the most common post-fire response was increased nutrient loading. Thirty-two western watersheds experienced significant increases in NO3-, NO2-, NH3, and total nitrogen loading for the first five years after fire and remained elevated ten years after fire. Dissolved and total phosphorous significantly increased in 32 western watersheds for the first five years after fire. The majority of these water bodies returned to normal loading after 10 years. Dissolved ions such as calcium, magnesium, and chloride were also exported from over 32 watersheds for the first five years after fire. Using multiple linear regression analysis, we also identify the key physical watershed characteristics that drive post-fire water quality response and recovery. Burn severity, burn area and aridity index all influence the degree of water quality response. Our work provides managers with critical information to evaluate water supply impacts, including short-term treatment needs, as well as the potential long-term resiliency of impacted watersheds.

Time is an affliction: Why ecology cannot be as predictive as physics and why it needs time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boero, F.; Kraberg, A. C.; Krause, G.; Wiltshire, K. H.

2015-07-01

Ecological systems depend on both constraints and historical contingencies, both of which shape their present observable system state. In contrast to ahistorical systems, which are governed solely by constraints (i.e. laws), historical systems and their dynamics can be understood only if properly described, in the course of time. Describing these dynamics and understanding long-term variability can be seen as the mission of long time series measuring not only simple abiotic features but also complex biological variables, such as species diversity and abundances, allowing deep insights in the functioning of food webs and ecosystems in general. Long time-series are irreplaceable for understanding change, and crucially inherent system variability and thus envisaging future scenarios. This notwithstanding current policies in funding and evaluating scientific research discourage the maintenance of long term series, despite a clear need for long-term strategies to cope with climate change. Time series are crucial for a pursuit of the much invoked Ecosystem Approach and to the passage from simple monitoring programs of large-scale and long-term Earth observatories - thus promoting a better understanding of the causes and effects of change in ecosystems. The few ongoing long time series in European waters must be integrated and networked so as to facilitate the formation of nodes of a series of observatories which, together, should allow the long-term management of the features and characteristics of European waters. Human capacity building in this region of expertise and a stronger societal involvement are also urgently needed, since the expertise in recognizing and describing species and therefore recording them reliably in the context of time series is rapidly vanishing from the European Scientific community.

Ecosystem variability in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Arny L.; Day, Robert H.; Gall, Adrian E.; Aerts, Lisanne A. M.; Delarue, Julien; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Questel, Jennifer M.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Wisdom, Sheyna S.

2017-12-01

Understanding influences of cumulative effects from multiple stressors in marine ecosystems requires an understanding of the sources for and scales of variability. A multidisciplinary ecosystem study in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2008-2013 investigated the variability of the study area's two adjacent sub-ecosystems: a pelagic system influenced by interannual and/or seasonal temporal variation at large, oceanographic (regional) scales, and a benthic-associated system more influenced by small-scale spatial variations. Variability in zooplankton communities reflected interannual oceanographic differences in waters advected northward from the Bering Sea, whereas variation in benthic communities was associated with seafloor and bottom-water characteristics. Variations in the planktivorous seabird community were correlated with prey distributions, whereas interaction effects in ANOVA for walruses were related to declines of sea-ice. Long-term shifts in seabird distributions were also related to changes in sea-ice distributions that led to more open water. Although characteristics of the lower trophic-level animals within sub-ecosystems result from oceanographic variations and interactions with seafloor topography, distributions of apex predators were related to sea-ice as a feeding platform (walruses) or to its absence (i.e., open water) for feeding (seabirds). The stability of prey resources appears to be a key factor in mediating predator interactions with other ocean characteristics. Seabirds reliant on highly-variable zooplankton prey show long-term changes as open water increases, whereas walruses taking benthic prey in biomass hotspots respond to sea-ice changes in the short-term. A better understanding of how variability scales up from prey to predators and how prey resource stability (including how critical prey respond to environmental changes over space and time) might be altered by climate and anthropogenic stressors is essential to predicting the future state of both the Chukchi and other arctic systems.

A new record of Atlantic sea surface salinity from 1896-2013 reveals the signatures of climate variability and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, A. R.; Reverdin, G. P.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.

2017-12-01

In the North Atlantic, sea surface salinity is both an indicator of the hydrological cycle and an active component of the ocean circulation. As an indirect "ocean rain gauge", surface salinity reflects the net surface fluxes of evaporation - precipitation + runoff, along with advection and vertical mixing. Subpolar surface salinity also may influence the strength of deep convection and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, continuous surface salinity time series beginning before the 1950s are rare, limiting our ability to resolve modes of variability and long-term trends. Here, we present a new gridded surface salinity record in the Atlantic from 1896-2013, compiled from a variety of historical sources. The compilation covers most of the Atlantic from 20°S-70°N, at 100-1000 km length scale and interannual temporal resolution, allowing us to resolve major modes of variability and linkages with large-scale Atlantic climate variations. We find that the low-latitude (tropical and subtropical) Atlantic and the subpolar Atlantic surface salinity are negatively correlated, with subpolar anomalies leading low-latitude anomalies by about a decade. Subpolar surface salinity varies in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), whereas low-latitude surface salinity lags the AMO and varies in phase with the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Additionally, northern tropical surface salinity is anticorrelated with the AMO and with Sahel rainfall, suggesting that it reflects the latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The 1896-2013 long-term trend features an amplification of the mean Atlantic surface salinity gradient pattern, with freshening in the subpolar Atlantic and salinification in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. We find that regressing out the AMO and the low-frequency NAO has little effect on the long-term residual trend. The spatial trend structure is consistent with the "rich-get-richer" hydrological cycle intensification response to global warming, and may also indicate increased Arctic cryosphere melting and surface runoff.

Functional performance and exercise of older adults in long-term care settings.

PubMed

Resnick, B

2000-03-01

Performing functional activities and exercising are important for older adults living in long-term care settings. Participation in these activities not only improves and maintains function in older adults but also can improve physical and emotional health and quality of life. The purpose of this study was to explore the variables that influence functional performance and exercise activity in a group of nursing home residents. Participants included 59 residents in a long-term care facility. The mean age of participants was 88 +/- 6.9, and the majority were women (76%), White (97%), and unmarried (76%). Residents participated in a single face-to-face interview. Chart reviews for demographic and health information also were performed. Based on stepwise multiple regression analyses, upper and lower extremity contractures and cognitive status were the only variables that significantly influenced functional performance and accounted for 49% of the variance in function. Self-efficacy and outcome expectations were the only variables to significantly influence exercise behavior and accounted for 57% of the variance in this behavior. These findings can be used to help develop and implement effective restorative nursing care programs in long-term care settings.

Nitrifying moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) biofilm and biomass response to long term exposure to 1 °C.

PubMed

Hoang, V; Delatolla, R; Abujamel, T; Mottawea, W; Gadbois, A; Laflamme, E; Stintzi, A

2014-02-01

This study aims to investigate moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) nitrification rates, nitrifying biofilm morphology, biomass viability as well as bacterial community shifts during long-term exposure to 1 °C. Long-term exposure to 1 °C is the key operational condition for potential ammonia removal upgrade units to numerous northern region treatment systems. The average laboratory MBBR ammonia removal rate after long-term exposure to 1 °C was measured to be 18 ± 5.1% as compared to the average removal rate at 20 °C. Biofilm morphology and specifically the thickness along with biomass viability at various depths in the biofilm were investigated using variable pressure electron scanning microscope (VPSEM) imaging and confocal laser scanning microscope (CLSM) imaging in combination with viability live/dead staining. The biofilm thickness along with the number of viable cells showed significant increases after long-term exposure to 1 °C. Hence, this study observed nitrifying bacteria with higher activities at warm temperatures and a slightly greater quantity of nitrifying bacteria with lower activities at cold temperatures in nitrifying MBBR biofilms. Using DNA sequencing analysis, Nitrosomonas and Nitrosospira (ammonia oxidizers) as well as Nitrospira (nitrite oxidizer) were identified and no population shift was observed between 20 °C and after long-term exposure to 1 °C. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forcing variables in simulation of transpiration of water stressed plants determined by principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durigon, Angelica; Lier, Quirijn de Jong van; Metselaar, Klaas

2016-10-01

To date, measuring plant transpiration at canopy scale is laborious and its estimation by numerical modelling can be used to assess high time frequency data. When using the model by Jacobs (1994) to simulate transpiration of water stressed plants it needs to be reparametrized. We compare the importance of model variables affecting simulated transpiration of water stressed plants. A systematic literature review was performed to recover existing parameterizations to be tested in the model. Data from a field experiment with common bean under full and deficit irrigation were used to correlate estimations to forcing variables applying principal component analysis. New parameterizations resulted in a moderate reduction of prediction errors and in an increase in model performance. Ags model was sensitive to changes in the mesophyll conductance and leaf angle distribution parameterizations, allowing model improvement. Simulated transpiration could be separated in temporal components. Daily, afternoon depression and long-term components for the fully irrigated treatment were more related to atmospheric forcing variables (specific humidity deficit between stomata and air, relative air humidity and canopy temperature). Daily and afternoon depression components for the deficit-irrigated treatment were related to both atmospheric and soil dryness, and long-term component was related to soil dryness.

Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

2016-01-01

Background The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. PMID:26901682

Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

PubMed

Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

2016-01-01

The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

Establishing Long-Term Efficacy in Chronic Disease: Use of Recursive Partitioning and Propensity Score Adjustment to Estimate Outcome in MS

PubMed Central

Goodin, Douglas S.; Jones, Jason; Li, David; Traboulsee, Anthony; Reder, Anthony T.; Beckmann, Karola; Konieczny, Andreas; Knappertz, Volker

2011-01-01

Context Establishing the long-term benefit of therapy in chronic diseases has been challenging. Long-term studies require non-randomized designs and, thus, are often confounded by biases. For example, although disease-modifying therapy in MS has a convincing benefit on several short-term outcome-measures in randomized trials, its impact on long-term function remains uncertain. Objective Data from the 16-year Long-Term Follow-up study of interferon-beta-1b is used to assess the relationship between drug-exposure and long-term disability in MS patients. Design/Setting To mitigate the bias of outcome-dependent exposure variation in non-randomized long-term studies, drug-exposure was measured as the medication-possession-ratio, adjusted up or down according to multiple different weighting-schemes based on MS severity and MS duration at treatment initiation. A recursive-partitioning algorithm assessed whether exposure (using any weighing scheme) affected long-term outcome. The optimal cut-point that was used to define “high” or “low” exposure-groups was chosen by the algorithm. Subsequent to verification of an exposure-impact that included all predictor variables, the two groups were compared using a weighted propensity-stratified analysis in order to mitigate any treatment-selection bias that may have been present. Finally, multiple sensitivity-analyses were undertaken using different definitions of long-term outcome and different assumptions about the data. Main Outcome Measure Long-Term Disability. Results In these analyses, the same weighting-scheme was consistently selected by the recursive-partitioning algorithm. This scheme reduced (down-weighted) the effectiveness of drug exposure as either disease duration or disability at treatment-onset increased. Applying this scheme and using propensity-stratification to further mitigate bias, high-exposure had a consistently better clinical outcome compared to low-exposure (Cox proportional hazard ratio = 0.30–0.42; p<0.0001). Conclusions Early initiation and sustained use of interferon-beta-1b has a beneficial impact on long-term outcome in MS. Our analysis strategy provides a methodological framework for bias-mitigation in the analysis of non-randomized clinical data. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00206635 PMID:22140424

Globular Cluster Variable Stars—Atlas and Coordinate Improvement using AAVSOnet Telescopes (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welch, D.; Henden, A.; Bell, T.; Suen, C.; Fare, I.; Sills, A.

2015-12-01

(Abstract only) The variable stars of globular clusters have played and continue to play a significant role in our understanding of certain classes of variable stars. Since all stars associated with a cluster have the same age, metallicity, distance and usually very similar (if not identical reddenings), such variables can produce uniquely powerful constraints on where certain types of pulsation behaviors are excited. Advanced amateur astronomers are increasingly well-positioned to provide long-term CCD monitoring of globular cluster variable star but are hampered by a long history of poor or inaccessible finder charts and coordinates. Many of variable-rich clusters have published photographic finder charts taken in relatively poor seeing with blue-sensitive photographic plates. While useful signal-to-noise ratios are relatively straightforward to achieve for RR Lyrae, Type 2 Cepheids, and red giant variables, correct identification remains a difficult issue—particularly when images are taken at V or longer wavelengths. We describe the project and report its progress using the OC61, TMO61, and SRO telescopes of AAVSOnet after the first year of image acquisition and demonstrate several of the data products being developed for globular cluster variables.

Relationship between organizational empowerment and job satisfaction perceived by nursing assistants at long-term care facilities.

PubMed

Kuo, Huai-Ting; Yin, Teresa Jeo-Chen; Li, I-Chuan

2008-11-01

The purpose of this study was to understand the relationships between organizational empowerment and job satisfaction among nursing assistants at long-term care facilities in Taiwan. Nursing assistants are the major manpower at long-term care facilities. The responsibilities of nursing assistants are complex and numerous and affect their job satisfaction. We assumed that a well-organized and pleasant work environment is an important characteristic of organizational empowerment and ought to enhance the nursing assistants' job satisfaction. However, little information exists that can be used by long-term care facilities managers when they strive to increase the nursing assistants' job satisfaction by modifying the regulations or interventions from an organizational perspective. We used a cross-sectional design with a descriptive correlation approach to understand the relationship between organizational empowerment and job satisfaction among nursing assistants at long-term care facilities in Taiwan. A total of 28 long-term care facilities and 114 nursing assistants participated in the study. The results indicated that, where there was a moderate level of organizational empowerment, a higher level of job satisfaction was found. Organizational empowerment was significantly associated with total job satisfaction (r = 0.366, p < 0.01). The variables of nationality (Vietnamese), resources, opportunity and informal power were significant predictors of job satisfaction (R(2) = 0.318, F = 12.24, p < 0.001). Organizational empowerment is significantly associated with job satisfaction among nursing assistants in this study. Nursing assistants need to receive more assistance and resources from their co-workers to enhance their job satisfaction. The manager should initiate regular meetings and activities for staff who work in long-term care facilities that will allow sharing, communication and support among the staff in terms of ideas, information and feelings.

Remote sensing of Sonoran Desert vegetation structure and phenology with ground-based LiDAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Joel B.; Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Duran, Cesar M.

2015-01-01

Long-term vegetation monitoring efforts have become increasingly important for understanding ecosystem response to global change. Many traditional methods for monitoring can be infrequent and limited in scope. Ground-based LiDAR is one remote sensing method that offers a clear advancement to monitor vegetation dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution. We determined the effectiveness of LiDAR to detect intra-annual variability in vegetation structure at a long-term Sonoran Desert monitoring plot dominated by cacti, deciduous and evergreen shrubs. Monthly repeat LiDAR scans of perennial plant canopies over the course of one year had high precision. LiDAR measurements of canopy height and area were accurate with respect to total station survey measurements of individual plants. We found an increase in the number of LiDAR vegetation returns following the wet North American Monsoon season. This intra-annual variability in vegetation structure detected by LiDAR was attributable to a drought deciduous shrub Ambrosia deltoidea, whereas the evergreen shrub Larrea tridentata and cactus Opuntia engelmannii had low variability. Benefits of using LiDAR over traditional methods to census desert plants are more rapid, consistent, and cost-effective data acquisition in a high-resolution, 3-dimensional context. We conclude that repeat LiDAR measurements can be an effective method for documenting ecosystem response to desert climatology and drought over short time intervals and at detailed-local spatial scale.

Does the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Increase in Thyroid Cancer Survivors?

PubMed

Kim, Min-Hee; Huh, Jin-Young; Lim, Dong-Jun; Kang, Moo-Il

2017-07-01

The steep rise in thyroid cancer observed in recent decades has caused an increase in the population of long-term thyroid cancer survivors. Other than recurrences of cancer, the long-term health consequences of surviving thyroid cancer, particularly metabolic syndrome, have not yet been determined. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of metabolic syndrome in thyroid cancer survivors. Population-based data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were used for the analysis. The data of KNHANES IV-VI from 2007-2014 were obtained. After excluding subjects who were under 19 years old, whose fasting interval was less than 8 hours, and whose data for predefined variables including metabolic syndrome components were incomplete, 34,347 subjects were analyzed. The incidence of metabolic syndrome and its components were evaluated in three groups: subjects with no history of thyroid cancer, subjects diagnosed with thyroid cancer within 3 years of the survey date, and subjects diagnosed more than 3 years before the survey date. Thyroid cancer diagnoses were made within 3 years of the survey date for 95 subjects (group 1, short-term survivors) and more than 3 years earlier than the survey date for 60 subjects (group 2, long-term survivors). Metabolic syndrome was frequently observed with clinical significance (odds ratio [OR] 1.986 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-3.70], p = 0.030) in short-term survivors compared with subjects with no thyroid cancer history. Risks for having high blood pressure and high fasting glucose were estimated to be higher in the short-term survivor group (OR 2.115 [CI 1.23-3.64], p = 0.006 and OR 1.792 [CI 1.03-3.11], p = 0.038, respectively). No significant associations were noticed in the long-term survivor group when compared with the group with no thyroid cancer history. Risks for metabolic syndrome, especially high blood pressure and high fasting glucose, were increased in short-term survivors of thyroid cancer but not in long-term survivors when compared with subjects with no history of thyroid cancer.

Predicted long-term effects of group selection on species composition and stand structure in northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Corey R. Halpin; Craig G. Lorimer; Jacob J. Hanson; Brian J. Palik

2017-01-01

The group selection method can potentially increase the proportion of shade-intolerant and midtolerant tree species in forests dominated by shade-tolerant species, but previous results have been variable, and concerns have been raised about possible effects on forest fragmentation and forest structure. Limited evidence is available on these issues for forests managed...

Study on Variability and Spectral Properties of Blazar 3C 273 with Long-term Multi-band Optical Monitoring from 2006 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Wei; Zhao, Qing-Jiang; Dai, Ben-Zhong; Jiang, Ze-Jun; Geng, Xiong-Fei; Yang, Shen-Bang; Liu, Zhen; Wang, Dong-Dong; Feng, Zhang-Jing; Zhang, Li

2018-02-01

We present long-term optical multi-band photometric monitoring of blazar 3C 273, from 2006 May 19 to 2015 March 31 with high temporal resolution in the BVRI bands. The source is in a steady state and showed very small variability, with the values of the fractional variability amplitude of {F}{var}=0.457+/- 0.014 % , 0.391+/- 0.012 % , 0.264+/- 0.043 % and 0.460+/- 0.014 % in B, V, R and I, respectively. The intra-night point-to-point fractional variability (F pp ) in each band is below 1.0%, and the F pp variation amplitude increase from the B-band to the I-band. We find a variability with the timescale of 5.8 ± 2.9 minutes in the I-band on 2009 March 11. This fast variability requires the comoving magnetic field strength in the jet above 18 G with a Doppler factor {δ }D∼ 10. Using the discrete correlation function (DCF), the B- and I-band light curves are examined for correlation on whole campaign. Low significance (∼99.73 percent confidence) correlations with the I-band lags the B-band variations are observed. The spectral behaviors in the different variability episodes are studied. “Bluer-when-brighter” spectral behavior is presented for the whole campaign, while there is an opposite tendency when {{{F}}}V> 30.2 {mJy}. The weak of the correlation between B- and I-band and the spectrum analysis indicate that the optical radiation consists of two variable components.

Demonstration of long-term increases in tropospheric O3 levels: causes and potential impacts.

PubMed

Susaya, Janice; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Shon, Zang-Ho; Brown, Richard J C

2013-09-01

Ground-level ozone (O3) is a well-known atmospheric pollutant with its adverse impacts on the environment and human health. Here, the tropospheric O3 concentrations monitored in seven major cities in Korea at monthly intervals over a 22-year period (1989-2010) are presented, and their long-term variability examined. The analysis of annual mean values of O3 (in nmolmol(-1), or ppb) showed a noticeable increase of 118±69% in all seven cities over the two decades (p<0.01). Changes in O3 levels are closely associated with both environmental (e.g., NOx (NO+NO2), SO2, CO, and total suspended particles (TSPs) (p<0.01), temperature, and sunshine hours) and common anthropogenic variables (e.g., population density and number of vehicles). Evidence collected in this study suggests that the atmospheric conditions in most major cities of Korea should be volatile organic compounds (VOCs) sensitive or NOx saturated with respect to O3 formation. As such, establishment of a proper management strategy seems a sensible approach to control tropospheric ozone concentrations in densely populated cities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual and organizational predictors of health care aide job satisfaction in long term care.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Stephanie A; Hoben, Matthias; Squires, Janet E; Estabrooks, Carole A

2016-10-13

Unregulated health care aides provide the majority of direct health care to residents in long term care homes. Lower job satisfaction as reported by care aides is associated with increased turnover of staff. Turnover leads to inferior job performance and negatively impacts quality of care for residents. This study aimed to determine the individual and organizational variables associated with job satisfaction in care aides. We surveyed a sample of 1224 care aides from 30 long term care homes in three Western Canadian provinces. The care aides reported their job satisfaction and their perception of the work environment. We used a hierarchical, mixed-effects ordered logistic regression to model the relative odds of care aide job satisfaction for individual, care unit, and facility factors. Care aide exhaustion, professional efficacy, and cynicism were associated with job satisfaction. Factors in the organizational context that are associated with increased care aide job satisfaction include: leadership, culture, social capital, organizational slack-staff, organizational slack-space, and organizational slack-time. Our findings suggest that organizational factors account for a greater increase in care aide job satisfaction than do individual factors. These features of the work environment are modifiable and predict care aide job satisfaction. Efforts to improve care aide work environment and quality of care should focus on organizational context.

Long term variabilities and tendencies of mesospheric lunar semidiurnal tide over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathishkumar, S.; Sridharan, S.; Muhammed Kutty, P. V.; Gurubaran, S.

2017-10-01

The medium frequency radar deployed at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E), which is located near the southmost tip of peninsular India, have been providing continuous data from the year 1993 to the year 2012 that helped to study the long term tendencies in the lunar tidal variabilities over this geographic location. In the present paper we present the results of seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities of lunar semi-diurnal tides in the upper mesosphere over Tirunelveli. The present study also includes comparison with model values. The study shows that the tidal amplitudes are larger in the meridional components of the mesospheric winds than the zonal winds. The seasonal variations of the tides are similar in both the components. The tides show maximum amplitudes of about ∼5 m/s in February/March, secondary maximum amplitudes of about ∼3 m/s in September and minimum amplitudes during summer months (May-August). The observed seasonal variation of the lunar tides do not compare well with Vial and Forbes (1994) model values, though it is consistent with earlier observations. The lunar tidal phase in meridional winds leads that in zonal winds from January to June and from September to November, while the latter leads the former during July/August. The lunar tides show large interannual variability. There are unusual amplitude enhancements in the lunar tide in meridional winds during the winters of 2006 and 2009, when major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred at high latitude northern hemisphere, whereas zonal lunar tide does not show any clear association with the SSW. Vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in zonal and meridional wind are in the range of 20-90 km. The vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in both zonal and meridional component are smaller in June and larger in November and December. The monthly mean zonal and meridional winds are subjected to regression analysis to study the tidal response to long-period oscillations, namely, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar cycle variation and El-nino southern oscillation (ENSO). It is found the lunar tide in both zonal and meridional winds show significant QBO response, whereas zonal tide only shows significant negative response to solar cycle and positive response to ENSO. Besides, zonal tide only shows significant long-term increasing trend.

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Possingham, Hugh P; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-01-01

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.

A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations.

PubMed

Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

2014-02-13

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

Climate variability decreases species richness and community stability in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunhai; Loreau, Michel; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Junbang; Pan, Qingmin; Bai, Yongfei; Han, Xingguo

2018-06-26

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability.

Simulated response and effects to oil exposure in an estuarine fish species

EPA Science Inventory

Experimental toxicity data alone lack ecological relevance to assess more realistic situations, such as variable exposure to a contaminant and long-term impact. Evaluating the implications of sublethal effects or behavioral response to exposure requires long-term, population-leve...

Financial incentives to discontinue long-term benzodiazepine use: a discrete choice experiment investigating patient preferences and willingness to participate

PubMed Central

Marti, Joachim; Bachhuber, Marcus; Feingold, Jordyn; Meads, David; Richards, Michael; Hennessy, Sean

2017-01-01

Objectives Investigate the acceptability of financial incentives for initiating a medically supervised benzodiazepine discontinuation programme among people with long-term benzodiazepine use and to identify programme features that influence willingness to participate. Methods We conducted a discrete choice experiment in which we presented a variety of incentive-based programs to a sample of older adults with long-term benzodiazepine use identified using the outpatient electronic health record of a university-owned health system. We studied four programme variables: incentive amount for initiating the programme, incentive amount for successful benzodiazepine discontinuation, lottery versus certain payment and whether partial payment was given for dose reduction. Respondents reported their willingness to participate in the programmes and additional information was collected on demographics, history of use and anxiety symptoms. Results The overall response rate was 28.4%. Among the 126 respondents, all four programme variables influenced stated preferences. Respondents strongly preferred guaranteed cash-based incentives as opposed to a lottery, and the dollar amount of both the starting and conditional incentives had a substantial impact on choice. Willingness to participate increased with the amount of conditional incentive. Programme participation also varied by gender, duration of use and income. Conclusions Participation in an incentive-based benzodiazepine discontinuation programme might be relatively low, but is modifiable by programme variables including incentive amounts. These results will be helpful to inform the design of future trials of benzodiazepine discontinuation programmes. Further research is needed to assess the financial viability and potential cost-effectiveness of such economic incentives. PMID:28988167

Spin, Unit Climate, and Aggression: Near Term, Long Term, and Reciprocal Predictors of Violence Among Workers in Military Settings

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

differences in within-person variability in emotional state, known as “spin”) and group level variables (e.g., unit climate) hypothesized to impact...effort includes both individual level variables (e.g., differences in within-person variability in emotional state, known as “spin”) and group level...and unit level factors across time. At the individual level, we will examine within-person variability in emotion and interpersonal behaviors

Changes in the genetic structure of Atlantic salmon populations over four decades reveal substantial impacts of stocking and potential resiliency

PubMed Central

Perrier, Charles; Guyomard, René; Bagliniere, Jean-Luc; Nikolic, Natacha; Evanno, Guillaume

2013-01-01

While the stocking of captive-bred fish has been occurring for decades and has had substantial immediate genetic and evolutionary impacts on wild populations, its long-term consequences have only been weakly investigated. Here, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of 1428 Atlantic salmon sampled from 1965 to 2006 in 25 populations throughout France to investigate the influence of stocking on the neutral genetic structure in wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations. On the basis of the analysis of 11 microsatellite loci, we found that the overall genetic structure among populations dramatically decreased over the period studied. Admixture rates among populations were highly variable, ranging from a nearly undetectable contribution from donor stocks to total replacement of the native gene pool, suggesting extremely variable impacts of stocking. Depending on population, admixture rates either increased, remained stable, or decreased in samples collected between 1998 and 2006 compared to samples from 1965 to 1987, suggesting either rising, long-lasting or short-term impacts of stocking. We discuss the potential mechanisms contributing to this variability, including the reduced fitness of stocked fish and persistence of wild locally adapted individuals. PMID:23919174

Long-Term Variability of Satellite Lake Surface Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierach, M. M.; Matsumoto, K.; Holt, B.; McKinney, P. J.; Tokos, K.

2014-12-01

The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth that approximately 37 million people depend upon for fresh drinking water, food, flood and drought mitigation, and natural resources that support industry, jobs, shipping and tourism. Recent reports have stated (e.g., the National Climate Assessment) that climate change can impact and exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of certain fish species, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms, declining beach health, and lengthened commercial navigation season. In this study, we will examine the impact of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes through investigation of long-term lake surface water temperatures (LSWT). We will use the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature & Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) product over the period 1995-2012 to investigate individual and interlake variability. Specifically, we will quantify the seasonal amplitude of LSWTs, the first and last appearances of the 4°C isotherm (i.e., an important identifier of the seasonal evolution of the lakes denoting winter and summer stratification), and interpret these quantities in the context of global interannual climate variability such as ENSO.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

PubMed

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

Assessment of the intraday variability of anthropometric measurements in the work environment: a pilot study.

PubMed

Bragança, Sara; Arezes, Pedro; Carvalho, Miguel; Ashdown, Susan P; Leão, Celina

2017-05-19

Sitting for long periods of time, both during work and leisure times, is the typical behavior of the modern society. Especially at work, where there is not much flexibility, adopting the sitting posture for the entire day can cause some short-term and long-term effects. As workers' productivity and well-being relies on working conditions, evaluating the effects caused by work postures assumes a very important role. The purpose of this article was to evaluate the variation of some anthropometric measurements during one typical workday to understand whether the known long-term effects can also be seen and quantified in an 8-h period. Twenty participants were measured before and after work, using traditional anthropometry equipment. The data from the two repetitions were compared using statistical tests. The results showed a slight variation in the anthropometric measurements, some with a tendency to increase over time and others with a tendency to decrease.

Effects of Sustained Abstinence Among Treated Substance-Abusing Homeless Persons on Housing and Employment

PubMed Central

Schumacher, Joseph E.; Wallace, Dennis; Vuchinich, Rudy; Mennemeyer, Stephen T.; Kertesz, Stefan G.

2010-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether cocaine-dependent homeless persons had stable housing and were employed 6, 12, and 18 months after they entered a randomized controlled trial comparing 2 treatments. Methods. One group (n = 103) received abstinence-contingent housing, vocational training, and work; another group (n = 103) received the same intervention plus cognitive behavioral day treatment. We examined baseline and early treatment variables for association with long-term housing and employment. Results. Although the enhanced-treatment group achieved better abstinence rates, the groups did not differ in long-term housing and employment stability. However, consecutive weeks of abstinence during treatment (and to a lesser extent, older age and male gender) predicted long-term housing and employment stability after adjustment for baseline differences in employment, housing, and treatment. Conclusions. Our data showed a relationship of abstinence with housing stability. Contrasting these results with the increasingly popular Housing First interventions reveals important gaps in our knowledge to be addressed in future research. PMID:19833998

Prevalence and facility level correlates of need for wheelchair seating assessment among long-term care residents.

PubMed

Giesbrecht, Edward M; Mortenson, W Ben; Miller, William C

2012-01-01

Wheelchairs are frequently prescribed for residents with mobility impairments in long-term care. Many residents receive poorly fitting wheelchairs, compromising functional independence and mobility, and contributing to subsequent health issues such as pressure ulcers. The extent of this problem and the factors that predict poor fit are poorly understood; such evidence would contribute greatly to effective and efficient clinical practice in long-term care. To identify the prevalence of need for wheelchair seating intervention among residents in long-term care facilities in Vancouver and explore the relationship between the need for seating intervention and facility level factors. Logistic regression analysis using secondary data from a cross-sectional study exploring predictors of resident mobility. A total of 263 residents (183 females and 80 males) were randomly selected from 11 long-term care facilities in the Vancouver health region (mean age 84.2 ± 8.6 years). The Seating Identification Tool was used to establish subject need for wheelchair seating intervention. Individual item frequency was calculated. Six contextual variables were measured at each facility including occupational therapy staffing, funding source, policies regarding wheelchair-related equipment, and decision-making philosophy. The overall prevalence rate of inappropriate seating was 58.6% (95% CI 52.6-64.5), ranging from 30.4 to 81.8% among the individual facilities. Discomfort, poor positioning and mobility, and skin integrity were the most common issues. Two facility level variables were significant predictors of need for seating assessment: ratio of occupational therapists per 100 residents [OR 0.11 (CI 0.04, 0.31)] and expectation that residents purchase wheelchair equipment beyond the basic level [OR 2.78 (1.11, 6.97)]. A negative association between facility prevalence rate and ratio of occupational therapists (r(p) = -0.684, CI -0.143 to -0.910) was found. Prevalence of need for seating assessment in long-term care is high overall but it varies considerably between facilities. Increasing access to occupational therapy services appears to mediate this need. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2011-12-01

The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken place in and around existing urban centers with an overall increase in the percentage of forested land. Individual analysis of well sites in areas with documented land-use change from agriculture and forested land cover to urban land use suggests a positive correlation with increasing water levels. Recently, beaver populations been begun to rise that has led to local increases in wetland areas. These regions also show a high positive correlation to the magnitude of water table rise. Local factors such as land-use change and beaver activity appear to overprint and mask the impact of consistent increases in annual precipitation. Rising water tables have major implications for not only water management but also the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism industries as they all depend on the quantity and quality of water resources of the region.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

Accelerated/abbreviated test methods of the low-cost silicon solar array project. Study 4, task 3: Encapsulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolyer, J. M.; Mann, N. R.

1977-01-01

Methods of accelerated and abbreviated testing were developed and applied to solar cell encapsulants. These encapsulants must provide protection for as long as 20 years outdoors at different locations within the United States. Consequently, encapsulants were exposed for increasing periods of time to the inherent climatic variables of temperature, humidity, and solar flux. Property changes in the encapsulants were observed. The goal was to predict long term behavior of encapsulants based upon experimental data obtained over relatively short test periods.

Interactions between lithology and biology drive the long-term response of stream chemistry to major hurricanes in a tropical landscape

Treesearch

W.H. McDowell; R.L. Brereton; F.N. Scatena; J.B. Shanley; N.V. Brokaw; A.E. Lugo

2013-01-01

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in many global biogeochemical cycles, yet long-term records of tropical stream chemistry and its response to disturbance events such as severe storms and droughts are rare. Here we document the long-term variability in chemistry of two streams in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico over a period of 27 years. Our two focal...

Change in quality of life of people with dementia recently admitted to long-term care facilities.

PubMed

Beerens, Hanneke C; Zwakhalen, Sandra M G; Verbeek, Hilde; Ruwaard, Dirk; Ambergen, Antonius W; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Stephan, Astrid; Zabalegui, Adelaida; Soto, Maria; Saks, Kai; Bökberg, Christina; Sutcliffe, Caroline L; Hamers, Jan P H

2015-06-01

To assess which factors are associated with change in quality of life of people with dementia who have recently been admitted to long-term care facilities. Many people with dementia will be admitted to long-term care facilities at some point during their disease. It is currently unknown which factors are associated with improvement and/or deterioration of quality of life immediately following admission. An observational and longitudinal survey. Data on 343 people with dementia who have been recently admitted to long-term care facilities across eight European countries were collected between November 2010-April 2012. Quality of life was assessed by people with dementia and their proxies using the 'Quality of Life-Alzheimer's Disease scale'. Explanatory variables included cognitive status, comorbidities, activities of daily living, depressive symptoms and neuropsychiatric symptoms. Descriptive and multilevel regression analyses were performed. Better cognitive abilities at baseline were associated with a decrease in self-reported quality of life. Greater dependency and more depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with declined proxy-reported quality of life. Furthermore, an increased dependency and an increase of depressive symptoms between baseline and follow-up were associated with a decreased proxy-reported quality of life. On an individual level, three groups were identified, namely people whose quality of life: (1) decreased; (2) stayed the same; and (3) increased. Cognitive functioning, functional rehabilitation and treatment of depressive symptoms should receive special attention. However, quality of life of people with dementia does not necessarily decrease after institutionalization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Regional and temporal differences in nitrate trends discerned from long-term water quality monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stets, Edward G.; Kelly, Valerie J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2015-01-01

Riverine nitrate (NO3) is a well-documented driver of eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas. The development of the elevated river NO3 concentration is linked to anthropogenic inputs from municipal, agricultural, and atmospheric sources. The intensity of these sources has varied regionally, through time, and in response to multiple causes such as economic drivers and policy responses. This study uses long-term water quality, land use, and other ancillary data to further describe the evolution of river NO3 concentrations at 22 monitoring stations in the United States (U.S.). The stations were selected for long-term data availability and to represent a range of climate and land-use conditions. We examined NO3 at the monitoring stations, using a flow-weighting scheme meant to account for interannual flow variability allowing greater focus on river chemical conditions. River NO3 concentration increased strongly during 1945-1980 at most of the stations and have remained elevated, but stopped increasing during 1981-2008. NO3 increased to a greater extent at monitoring stations in the Midwest U.S. and less so at those in the Eastern and Western U.S. We discuss 20th Century agricultural development in the U.S. and demonstrate that regional differences in NO3 concentration patterns were strongly related to an agricultural index developed using principal components analysis. This unique century-scale dataset adds to our understanding of long-term NO3 patterns in the U.S.

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

2017-04-01

Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to constrain model uncertainty for an - assumed to be - ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for reconstructing long-term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America, and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

Characterizing the γ-ray long-term variability of PKS 2155-304 with H.E.S.S. and Fermi-LAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

H.E.S.S. Collaboration; Abdalla, H.; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.; Ait Benkhali, F.; Akhperjanian, A. G.; Andersson, T.; Angüner, E. O.; Arrieta, M.; Aubert, P.; Backes, M.; Balzer, A.; Barnard, M.; Becherini, Y.; Becker Tjus, J.; Berge, D.; Bernhard, S.; Bernlöhr, K.; Blackwell, R.; Böttcher, M.; Boisson, C.; Bolmont, J.; Bordas, P.; Bregeon, J.; Brun, F.; Brun, P.; Bryan, M.; Bulik, T.; Capasso, M.; Carr, J.; Casanova, S.; Cerruti, M.; Chakraborty, N.; Chalme-Calvet, R.; Chaves, R. C. G.; Chen, A.; Chevalier, J.; Chrétien, M.; Colafrancesco, S.; Cologna, G.; Condon, B.; Conrad, J.; Cui, Y.; Davids, I. D.; Decock, J.; Degrange, B.; Deil, C.; Devin, J.; deWilt, P.; Dirson, L.; Djannati-Ataï, A.; Domainko, W.; Donath, A.; Drury, L. O.'C.; Dubus, G.; Dutson, K.; Dyks, J.; Edwards, T.; Egberts, K.; Eger, P.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Eschbach, S.; Farnier, C.; Fegan, S.; Fernandes, M. V.; Fiasson, A.; Fontaine, G.; Förster, A.; Funk, S.; Füßling, M.; Gabici, S.; Gajdus, M.; Gallant, Y. A.; Garrigoux, T.; Giavitto, G.; Giebels, B.; Glicenstein, J. F.; Gottschall, D.; Goyal, A.; Grondin, M.-H.; Hadasch, D.; Hahn, J.; Haupt, M.; Hawkes, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henri, G.; Hermann, G.; Hervet, O.; Hinton, J. A.; Hofmann, W.; Hoischen, C.; Holler, M.; Horns, D.; Ivascenko, A.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jamrozy, M.; Janiak, M.; Jankowsky, D.; Jankowsky, F.; Jingo, M.; Jogler, T.; Jouvin, L.; Jung-Richardt, I.; Kastendieck, M. A.; Katarzyński, K.; Katz, U.; Kerszberg, D.; Khélifi, B.; Kieffer, M.; King, J.; Klepser, S.; Klochkov, D.; Kluźniak, W.; Kolitzus, D.; Komin, Nu.; Kosack, K.; Krakau, S.; Kraus, M.; Krayzel, F.; Krüger, P. P.; Laffon, H.; Lamanna, G.; Lau, J.; Lees, J.-P.; Lefaucheur, J.; Lefranc, V.; Lemière, A.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Lenain, J.-P.; Leser, E.; Lohse, T.; Lorentz, M.; Liu, R.; López-Coto, R.; Lypova, I.; Marandon, V.; Marcowith, A.; Mariaud, C.; Marx, R.; Maurin, G.; Maxted, N.; Mayer, M.; Meintjes, P. J.; Meyer, M.; Mitchell, A. M. W.; Moderski, R.; Mohamed, M.; Mohrmann, L.; Morå, K.; Moulin, E.; Murach, T.; de Naurois, M.; Niederwanger, F.; Niemiec, J.; Oakes, L.; O'Brien, P.; Odaka, H.; Öttl, S.; Ohm, S.; Ostrowski, M.; Oya, I.; Padovani, M.; Panter, M.; Parsons, R. D.; Pekeur, N. W.; Pelletier, G.; Perennes, C.; Petrucci, P.-O.; Peyaud, B.; Piel, Q.; Pita, S.; Poon, H.; Prokhorov, D.; Prokoph, H.; Pühlhofer, G.; Punch, M.; Quirrenbach, A.; Raab, S.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Renaud, M.; de los Reyes, R.; Rieger, F.; Romoli, C.; Rosier-Lees, S.; Rowell, G.; Rudak, B.; Rulten, C. B.; Sahakian, V.; Salek, D.; Sanchez, D. A.; Santangelo, A.; Sasaki, M.; Schlickeiser, R.; Schüssler, F.; Schulz, A.; Schwanke, U.; Schwemmer, S.; Settimo, M.; Seyffert, A. S.; Shafi, N.; Shilon, I.; Simoni, R.; Sol, H.; Spanier, F.; Spengler, G.; Spies, F.; Stawarz, Ł.; Steenkamp, R.; Stegmann, C.; Stinzing, F.; Stycz, K.; Sushch, I.; Tavernet, J.-P.; Tavernier, T.; Taylor, A. M.; Terrier, R.; Tibaldo, L.; Tiziani, D.; Tluczykont, M.; Trichard, C.; Tuffs, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; van der Walt, D. J.; van Eldik, C.; van Rensburg, C.; van Soelen, B.; Vasileiadis, G.; Veh, J.; Venter, C.; Viana, A.; Vincent, P.; Vink, J.; Voisin, F.; Völk, H. J.; Vuillaume, T.; Wadiasingh, Z.; Wagner, S. J.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. M.; White, R.; Wierzcholska, A.; Willmann, P.; Wörnlein, A.; Wouters, D.; Yang, R.; Zabalza, V.; Zaborov, D.; Zacharias, M.; Zdziarski, A. A.; Zech, A.; Zefi, F.; Ziegler, A.; Żywucka, N.

2017-02-01

Studying the temporal variability of BL Lac objects at the highest energies provides unique insights into the extreme physical processes occurring in relativistic jets and in the vicinity of super-massive black holes. To this end, the long-term variability of the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304 is analyzed in the high (HE, 100 MeV < E < 300 GeV) and very high energy (VHE, E > 200 GeV) γ-ray domain. Over the course of 9 yr of H.E.S.S. observations the VHE light curve in the quiescent state is consistent with a log-normal behavior. The VHE variability in this state is well described by flicker noise (power-spectral-density index ) on timescales larger than one day. An analysis of 5.5 yr of HE Fermi-LAT data gives consistent results (, on timescales larger than 10 days) compatible with the VHE findings. The HE and VHE power spectral densities show a scale invariance across the probed time ranges. A direct linear correlation between the VHE and HE fluxes could neither be excluded nor firmly established. These long-term-variability properties are discussed and compared to the red noise behavior (β 2) seen on shorter timescales during VHE-flaring states. The difference in power spectral noise behavior at VHE energies during quiescent and flaring states provides evidence that these states are influenced by different physical processes, while the compatibility of the HE and VHE long-term results is suggestive of a common physical link as it might be introduced by an underlying jet-disk connection.

Organisational injustice and impaired cardiovascular regulation among female employees.

PubMed

Elovainio, M; Kivimäki, M; Puttonen, S; Lindholm, H; Pohjonen, T; Sinervo, T

2006-02-01

To examine the relation between perceived organisational justice and cardiovascular reactivity in women. The participants were 57 women working in long term care homes. Heart rate variability and systolic arterial pressure variability were used as markers of autonomic function. Organisational justice was measured using the scale of Moorman. Data on other risk factors were also collected. Results from logistic regression models showed that the risk for increased low frequency band systolic arterial pressure variability was 3.8-5.8 times higher in employees with low justice than in employees with high justice. Low perceived justice was also related to an 80% excess risk of reduced high frequency heart rate variability compared to high perceived justice, but this association was not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that cardiac dysregulation is one stress mechanism through which a low perceived justice of decision making procedures and interpersonal treatment increases the risk of health problems in personnel.

Does fractality in heart rate variability indicate the development of fetal neural processes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echeverría, J. C.; Woolfson, M. S.; Crowe, J. A.; Hayes-Gill, B. R.; Piéri, Jean F.; Spencer, C. J.; James, D. K.

2004-10-01

By using an improved detrended fluctuation analysis we studied the scaling behaviour of 53 long-term series of fetal heart rate fluctuations. Our results suggest that fractality begins to arise around 24 weeks of normal human gestation and that this condition, showing some additional developments, seems to be preserved during gestation. This may provide new evidence of a role played by cortical-to-subcortical pathways in the long-term fractal nature of heart rate variability data.

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea [review article

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuorinen, I.; Hänninen, J.; Kornilovs, G.

2003-12-01

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r2 > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.

Long-term dynamics of a floodplain shallow lake in the Pantanal wetland: Is it all about climate?

PubMed

Silio-Calzada, Ana; Barquín, José; Huszar, Vera L M; Mazzeo, Nestor; Méndez, Fernando; Álvarez-Martínez, Jose Manuel

2017-12-15

Hydrological variability over seasonal and multi-annual timescales strongly shapes the ecological structure and functioning of floodplain ecosystems. The current IPCC climate scenario foresees an increase in the frequency of extreme events. This, in conjunction with other anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., river regulation or land-use changes) poses a serious threat to the natural functioning of these ecosystems. In this study we aimed to i) evaluate the long-term variability of the flooded area of the third largest floodplain lake in the Brazilian Pantanal using remote sensing techniques, and ii) analyze the possible factors influencing this variability. Changes in open-water and riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation areas were mapped by applying an ad hoc-developed remote-sensing method (including a newly developed normalized water index, NWI) to 221 Landsat-Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images, acquired between 1984 and 2011. Added to the lake's natural swing between riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation expansion and retraction, our analyses revealed large interannual changes, grouped into three main periods within the studied time interval. Moreover, our results indicate that this floodplain-lake system is losing open-water area, paired with an increase in riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation. The system's long-term dynamics are not all climate related, but are the result of a combination of drivers. The start of the Manso dam's operation upstream of the studied system, and the subsequent river regulation because of the dam operation, coupled with climatic oscillation appear to be responsible for the observed changes. However, other factors which were not considered in this study might also be important in this process and contributing to the reduction of the system's resilience to droughts (e.g., land-use changes). This study illustrates the serious conservation risks that the Pantanal faces in the near future, given the current climate-change scenario and the accumulation of dam building projects in this region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinically meaningful parameters of progression and long-term outcome of Parkinson disease: An international consensus statement.

PubMed

Puschmann, Andreas; Brighina, Laura; Markopoulou, Katerina; Aasly, Jan; Chung, Sun Ju; Frigerio, Roberta; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios; Kõks, Sulev; Krüger, Rejko; Siuda, Joanna; Wider, Christian; Zesiewicz, Theresa A; Maraganore, Demetrius M

2015-07-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is associated with a clinical course of variable duration, severity, and a combination of motor and non-motor features. Recent PD research has focused primarily on etiology rather than clinical progression and long-term outcomes. For the PD patient, caregivers, and clinicians, information on expected clinical progression and long-term outcomes is of great importance. Today, it remains largely unknown what factors influence long-term clinical progression and outcomes in PD; recent data indicate that the factors that increase the risk to develop PD differ, at least partly, from those that accelerate clinical progression and lead to worse outcomes. Prospective studies will be required to identify factors that influence progression and outcome. We suggest that data for such studies is collected during routine office visits in order to guarantee high external validity of such research. We report here the results of a consensus meeting of international movement disorder experts from the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease (GEO-PD) consortium, who convened to define which long-term outcomes are of interest to patients, caregivers and clinicians, and what is presently known about environmental or genetic factors influencing clinical progression or long-term outcomes in PD. We propose a panel of rating scales that collects a significant amount of phenotypic information, can be performed in the routine office visit and allows international standardization. Research into the progression and long-term outcomes of PD aims at providing individual prognostic information early, adapting treatment choices, and taking specific measures to provide care optimized to the individual patient's needs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Four years of raw mortality in an intensive care unit].

PubMed

Loria, Alvar; Rosas-Baruch, Agustina; Posadas, Juan Gabriel; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Rivero-Sigarroa, Eduardo

2008-01-01

To characterize magnitude and variability of raw mortality in a Mexican Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Demographic and clinical data were analyzed in 1,746 patients discharged from the ICU of the Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Medicas y Nutricion Salvador Zubiran. The data was obtained from an administrative database and covered four years (2003-2006). Overall ICU-mortality was 23% (410/1746) and was associated with two binary variables (higher mortality in weekend admissions and non-surgical cases) and three multicategorical variables (gradient of increasing mortality with increasing age, increasing diagnostic risk and increasing number of high-rish diagnoses). First biennium mortality was significantly higher than in the second biennium (29% us 19%). This higher mortality was not associated with the high risk categories of the five variables described above nor with other ICU-variables such as number of nurses and admission and discharge criteria. The only biennium difference was a higher number of physicians (specialists + residents) in the second biennium (16-20 versus 14-15 in the first). The four-year long-term ICU-mortality showed a significant decrease in the second biennium. Number of physicians was the only variable associated with the decreased mortality.

Can we "predict" long-term outcome for ambulatory transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in patients with chronic pain?

PubMed

Köke, Albère J; Smeets, Rob J E M; Perez, Roberto S; Kessels, Alphons; Winkens, Bjorn; van Kleef, Maarten; Patijn, Jacob

2015-03-01

Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance. A prospective study was performed to identify variables with potential predictive value for 2 outcome measures on long term (6 months); (1) continuation of TENS, and (2) a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. At baseline, a set of risk factors including pain-related variables, psychological factors, and disability was measured. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, higher patient's expectations, neuropathic pain, no severe pain (< 80 mm visual analogue scale [VAS]) were independently related to long-term continuation of TENS. For the outcome "minimally clinical important pain reduction," the multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that no multisited pain (> 2 pain locations) and intermittent pain were positively and independently associated with a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. The results showed that factors associated with a successful outcome in the long term are dependent on definition of successful outcome. © 2014 World Institute of Pain.

Race, gender, and the response to stress: autoworkers' vulnerability to long-term unemployment.

PubMed

Broman, C L; Hamilton, V L; Hoffman, W S; Mavaddat, R

1995-12-01

A three-wave panel study of auto plant closings focused on the mental health effects of unemployment on blue-collar workers. This paper explores how the impact of long-term unemployment varies across race and gender. We also examine whether other demographic factors can themselves modify the impacts of race and gender. Dependent variables include two measures of distress and two drinking measures. Results showed that the effect of long-term unemployment on distress and drinking was more severe among less educated workers, and responses of blacks were especially sensitive to level of education. In addition, men showed a greater association of long-term unemployment with depression (and to some extent anxiety) than did women. Marriage affected the responses of men but not of women, and of whites but not of blacks. Explanatory variables--the worker's experiences of financial hardship, other negative life events, and lack of a confidant--largely accounted for male-female differences. We conclude by discussing theoretical implications of these effects and address the limitations of the traditional term "vulnerability" in describing them.

Development of an Experimental Model to Study the Relationship Between Day-to-Day Variability in Blood Pressure and Aortic Stiffness

PubMed Central

Bouissou-Schurtz, Camille; Lindesay, Georges; Regnault, Véronique; Renet, Sophie; Safar, Michel E.; Molinie, Vincent; Dabire, Hubert; Bezie, Yvonnick

2015-01-01

We aimed to develop an animal model of long-term blood pressure variability (BPV) and to investigate its consequences on aortic damage. We hypothesized that day-to-day BPV produced by discontinuous treatment of spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) by valsartan may increase arterial stiffness. For that purpose, rats were discontinuously treated, 2 days a week, or continuously treated by valsartan (30 mg/kg/d in chow) or placebo. Telemetered BP was recorded during 2 min every 15 min, 3 days a week during 8 weeks to cover the full BP variations in response to the treatment schedule. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and aortic structure evaluated by immunohistochemistry were investigated in a second set of rats treated under the same conditions. Continuous treatment with valsartan reduced systolic BP (SBP) and reversed the aortic structural alterations observed in placebo treated SHR (decrease of medial cross-sectional area). Discontinuous treatment with valsartan decreased SBP to a similar extent but increased the day-to-day BPV, short term BPV, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and PWV as compared with continuous treatment. Despite no modifications in the elastin/collagen ratio and aortic thickness, an increase in PWV was observed following discontinuous treatment and was associated with a specific accumulation of fibronectin and its αv-integrin receptor compared with both groups of rats. Taken together the present results indicate that a discontinuous treatment with valsartan is able to induce a significant increase in day-to-day BPV coupled to an aortic phenotype close to that observed in hypertension. This experimental model should pave the way for future experimental and clinical studies aimed at assessing how long-term BPV increases aortic stiffness. PMID:26696902

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

Assessment of the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharges using co-integration analysis: a case study for China's Hunan Province.

PubMed

Xiao, Qiang; Gao, Yang; Hu, Dan; Tan, Hong; Wang, Tianxiang

2011-07-01

We have investigated the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge from 1978 to 2007 in China's Hunan Province using co-integration theory and an error-correction model. Two main economic growth indicators and four representative industrial wastewater pollutants were selected to demonstrate the interaction mechanism. We found a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the discharge of industrial pollutants in wastewater between 1978 and 2007 in Hunan Province. The error-correction mechanism prevented the variable expansion for long-term relationship at quantity and scale, and the size of the error-correction parameters reflected short-term adjustments that deviate from the long-term equilibrium. When economic growth changes within a short term, the discharge of pollutants will constrain growth because the values of the parameters in the short-term equation are smaller than those in the long-term co-integrated regression equation, indicating that a remarkable long-term influence of economic growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants and that increasing pollutant discharge constrained economic growth. Economic growth is the main driving factor that affects the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants in Hunan Province. On the other hand, the discharge constrains economic growth by producing external pressure on growth, although this feedback mechanism has a lag effect. Economic growth plays an important role in explaining the predicted decomposition of the variance in the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants, but this discharge contributes less to predictions of the variations in economic growth.

Assessment of the Interactions between Economic Growth and Industrial Wastewater Discharges Using Co-integration Analysis: A Case Study for China’s Hunan Province

PubMed Central

Xiao, Qiang; Gao, Yang; Hu, Dan; Tan, Hong; Wang, Tianxiang

2011-01-01

We have investigated the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge from 1978 to 2007 in China’s Hunan Province using co-integration theory and an error-correction model. Two main economic growth indicators and four representative industrial wastewater pollutants were selected to demonstrate the interaction mechanism. We found a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the discharge of industrial pollutants in wastewater between 1978 and 2007 in Hunan Province. The error-correction mechanism prevented the variable expansion for long-term relationship at quantity and scale, and the size of the error-correction parameters reflected short-term adjustments that deviate from the long-term equilibrium. When economic growth changes within a short term, the discharge of pollutants will constrain growth because the values of the parameters in the short-term equation are smaller than those in the long-term co-integrated regression equation, indicating that a remarkable long-term influence of economic growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants and that increasing pollutant discharge constrained economic growth. Economic growth is the main driving factor that affects the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants in Hunan Province. On the other hand, the discharge constrains economic growth by producing external pressure on growth, although this feedback mechanism has a lag effect. Economic growth plays an important role in explaining the predicted decomposition of the variance in the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants, but this discharge contributes less to predictions of the variations in economic growth. PMID:21845167

Daytime variation in ambient temperature affects skin temperatures and blood pressure: Ambulatory winter/summer comparison in healthy young women.

PubMed

Martinez-Nicolas, Antonio; Meyer, Martin; Hunkler, Stefan; Madrid, Juan Antonio; Rol, Maria Angeles; Meyer, Andrea H; Schötzau, Andy; Orgül, Selim; Kräuchi, Kurt

2015-10-01

It is widely accepted that cold exposure increases peripheral vascular resistance and arterial blood pressure (BP) and, hence, increases cardiovascular risk primarily in the elderly. However, there is a lack of concomitantly longitudinal recordings at personal level of environmental temperature (PET) and cardiophysiological variables together with skin temperatures (STs, the “interface-variable” between the body core and ambient temperature). To investigate the intra-individual temporal relationships between PET, STs and BP 60 healthy young women (52 completed the entire study) were prospectively studied in a winter/summer design for 26 h under real life conditions. The main hypothesis was tested whether distal ST (Tdist)mediates the effect of PET-changes on mean arterial BP (MAP). Diurnal profiles of cardiophysiological variables (including BP), STs and PET were ambulatory recorded. Daytime variations between 0930 and 2030 h were analyzed in detail by intra-individual longitudinal path analysis. Additionally, time segments before, during and after outdoor exposure were separately analyzed. In both seasons short-term variations in PET were positively associated with short-term changes in Tdist (not proximal ST, Tprox) and negatively with those in MAP. However, long-term seasonal differences in daytime mean levels were observed in STs but not in BP leading to non-significant inter-individual correlation between STs and BP. Additionally, higher individual body mass index (BMI) was significantly associated with lower daytime mean levels of Tprox and higher MAP suggesting Tprox as potential mediator variable for the association of BMI with MAP. In healthy young women the thermoregulatory and BP-regulatory systems are closely linked with respect to short-term, but not long-term changes in PET. One hypothetical explanation could serve recent findings that thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue is activated in a cool environment, which could be responsible for the counter-regulation of cold induced increase of BP in winter leading to no seasonal differences in MAP. Our findings suggest that the assessment of diurnal patterns of STs and PET, in addition to the conventional ambulatory BP monitoring, might improve individual cardiovascular risk prediction.

Long time scale hard X-ray variability in Seyfert 1 galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markowitz, Alex Gary

This dissertation examines the relationship between long-term X-ray variability characteristics, black hole mass, and luminosity of Seyfert 1 Active Galactic Nuclei. High dynamic range power spectral density functions (PSDs) have been constructed for six Seyfert 1 galaxies. These PSDs show "breaks" or characteristic time scales, typically on the order of a few days. There is resemblance to PSDs of lower-mass Galactic X-ray binaries (XRBs), with the ratios of putative black hole masses and variability time scales approximately the same (106--7) between the two classes of objects. The data are consistent with a linear correlation between Seyfert PSD break time scale and black hole mass estimate; the relation extrapolates reasonably well over 6--7 orders of magnitude to XRBs. All of this strengthens the case for a physical similarity between Seyfert galaxies and XRBs. The first six years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1s have been systematically analyzed to probe hard X-ray variability on multiple time scales in a total of 19 Seyfert is in an expansion of the survey of Markowitz & Edelson (2001). Correlations between variability amplitude, luminosity, and black hole mass are explored, the data support the model of PSD movement with black hole mass suggested by the PSD survey. All of the continuum variability results are consistent with relatively more massive black holes hosting larger X-ray emission regions, resulting in 'slower' observed variability. Nearly all sources in the sample exhibit stronger variability towards softer energies, consistent with softening as they brighten. Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert is to study long-term spectral variability and Fe Kalpha variability characteristics. The Fe Kalpha line displays a wide range of behavior but varies less strongly than the broadband continuum. Overall, however, there is no strong evidence for correlated variability between the line and continuum, severely challenging models in which the line tracks continuum variations modified only by a light-travel time delay. This experiment yields further support for spectral softening as continuum flux increases.

Durability and degradation of HT9 based alloy waste forms with variable Ni and Cr content

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olson, L.

2016-12-31

Short-term electrochemical and long-term hybrid electrochemical corrosion tests were performed on alloy waste forms in reference aqueous solutions that bound postulated repository conditions. The alloy waste forms investigated represent candidate formulations that can be produced with advanced electrochemical treatment of used nuclear fuel. The studies helped to better understand the alloy waste form durability with differing concentrations of nickel and chromium, species that can be added to alloy waste forms to potentially increase their durability and decrease radionuclide release into the environment.

Effects of lakes and reservoirs on annual river nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment export in agricultural and forested landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Stephen M.; Robertson, Dale M.; Stanley, Emily H.

2014-01-01

Recently, effects of lakes and reservoirs on river nutrient export have been incorporated into landscape biogeochemical models. Because annual export varies with precipitation, there is a need to examine the biogeochemical role of lakes and reservoirs over time frames that incorporate interannual variability in precipitation. We examined long-term (~20 years) time series of river export (annual mass yield, Y, and flow-weighted mean annual concentration, C) for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) from 54 catchments in Wisconsin, USA. Catchments were classified as small agricultural, large agricultural, and forested by use of a cluster analysis, and these varied in lentic coverage (percentage of catchment lake or reservoir water that was connected to river network). Mean annual export and interannual variability (CV) of export (for both Y and C) were higher in agricultural catchments relative to forested catchments for TP, TN, and TSS. In both agricultural and forested settings, mean and maximum annual TN yields were lower in the presence of lakes and reservoirs, suggesting lentic denitrification or N burial. There was also evidence of long-term lentic TP and TSS retention, especially when viewed in terms of maximum annual yield, suggesting sedimentation during high loading years. Lentic catchments had lower interannual variability in export. For TP and TSS, interannual variability in mass yield was often >50% higher than interannual variability in water yield, whereas TN variability more closely followed water (discharge) variability. Our results indicate that long-term mass export through rivers depends on interacting terrestrial, aquatic, and meteorological factors in which the presence of lakes and reservoirs can reduce the magnitude of export, stabilize interannual variability in export, as well as introduce export time lags.

Long-term traffic-related exposures and asthma onset in schoolchildren in oslo, norway.

PubMed

Oftedal, Bente; Nystad, Wenche; Brunekreef, Bert; Nafstad, Per

2009-05-01

Whether there is a causal relation between long-term exposure to traffic and asthma development is so far not clear. This may be explained by inaccurate exposure assessment. We investigated the associations of long-term traffic-related exposures with asthma onset assessed retrospectively and respiratory symptoms in 9- to 10-year-old children. We collected information on respiratory outcomes and potential confounding variables by parental questionnaire in 2,871 children in Oslo. Nitrogen dioxide exposure was assessed by the EPISODE dispersion model and assigned at updated individual addresses during lifetime. Distance to major road was assigned at birth address and address by date of questionnaire. Cox proportional hazard regression and logistic regression were used. We did not find positive associations between any long-term traffic-related exposure and onset of doctor-diagnosed asthma. An interquartile range (IQR) increase of NO(2) exposure before asthma onset was associated with an adjusted risk ratio of 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.67-1.02]. Handling early asthma cases (children < 4 years of age) with recovery during follow-up as noncases gave a less negative association. The associations for late asthma onset (>/= 4 years of age) were positive but not statistically significant. For current symptoms, an IQR increase of previous year's NO(2) exposure was associated with adjusted odds ratios of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83-1.23) for wheeze, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.79-1.51) for severe wheeze, and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84-1.21) for dry cough. We were not able to find positive associations of long-term traffic-related exposures with asthma onset or with current respiratory symptoms in 9- to 10-year-old children in Oslo.

Cardiorespiratory interaction with continuous positive airway pressure

PubMed Central

Bonafini, Sara; Fava, Cristiano; Steier, Joerg

2018-01-01

The treatment of choice for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is continuous positive airway pressure therapy (CPAP). Since its introduction in clinical practice, CPAP has been used in various clinical conditions with variable and heterogeneous outcomes. In addition to the well-known effects on the upper airway CPAP impacts on intrathoracic pressures, haemodynamics and blood pressure (BP) control. However, short- and long-term effects of CPAP therapy depend on multiple variables which include symptoms, underlying condition, pressure used, treatment acceptance, compliance and usage. CPAP can alter long-term cardiovascular risk in patients with cardiorespiratory conditions. Furthermore, the effect of CPAP on the awake patient differs from the effect on the patients while asleep, and this might contribute to discomfort and removal of the use interface. The purpose of this review is to highlight the physiological impact of CPAP on the cardiorespiratory system, including short-term benefits and long-term outcomes. PMID:29445529

Scattering from Rock and Rock Outcrops

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-23

scattering and rough areas as seen on the rock outcrop in Fig. 1, display high variability which could pose difficulty for target detection and...classification systems. The primary long-term goal of this research project is to increase understanding and modeling capabilities for high -frequency acoustic...Arlington, VA 22203-1995 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) BD025 11. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILABILITY

Investigating the relationship between bole scorch height and fire intensity variables in the ridge and valley physiographic province, West Virginia

Treesearch

Jonathan A. Pomp; David W. McGill; Thomas M. Schuler

2008-01-01

Prescribed fires are carried out on the George Washington National Forest (GWNF) in West Virginia to promote long-term resource and social values, including tree regeneration, improving wildlife habitat and aesthetics, and maintenance of low woody fuel loading. Prescribed fire programs have increased on the GWNF over the past 20 years. Although prescribed fire is...

Patient time and out-of-pocket costs for long-term prostate cancer survivors in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Claire; Bremner, Karen E; Ni, Andy; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Laporte, Audrey; Krahn, Murray D

2014-03-01

Time and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs can represent a substantial burden for cancer patients but have not been described for long-term cancer survivors. We estimated these costs, their predictors, and their relationship to financial income, among a cohort of long-term prostate cancer (PC) survivors. A population-based, community-dwelling, geographically diverse sample of long-term (2-13 years) PC survivors in Ontario, Canada, was identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and contacted through their referring physicians. We obtained data on demographics, health care resource use, and OOP costs through mailed questionnaires and conducted chart reviews to obtain clinical data. We compared mean annual time and OOP costs (2006 Canadian dollars) across clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and examined the association between costs and four groups of predictors (patient, disease, system, symptom) using two-part regression models. Patients' (N = 585) mean age was 73 years; 77 % were retired, and 42 % reported total annual incomes less than $40,000. Overall, mean time costs were $838/year and mean OOP costs were $200/year. Although generally low, total costs represented approximately 10 % of income for lower income patients. No demographic variables were associated with costs. Radical prostatectomy, younger age, poor urinary function, current androgen deprivation therapy, and recent diagnosis were significantly associated with increased likelihood of incurring any costs, but only urinary function significantly affected total amount. Time and OOP costs are modest for most long-term PC survivors but can represent a substantial burden for lower income patients. Even several years after diagnosis, PC-specific treatments and treatment-related dysfunction are associated with increased costs. Time and out-of-pocket costs are generally manageable for long-term PC survivors but can be a significant burden mainly for lower income patients. The effects of PC-specific, treatment-related dysfunctions on quality of life can also represent sources of expense for patients.

Long-Term Aircraft Noise Exposure and Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference, and Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Hilding, Agneta; Pyko, Andrei; Bluhm, Gösta; Pershagen, Göran; Östenson, Claes-Göran

2014-01-01

Background: Long-term aircraft noise exposure may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but no study has investigated chronic effects on the metabolic system. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate effects of long-term aircraft noise exposure on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, we explored the modifying effects of sleep disturbance. Methods: This prospective cohort study of residents of Stockholm County, Sweden, followed 5,156 participants with normal baseline oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) for up to 10 years. Exposure to aircraft noise was estimated based on residential history. Information on outcomes and confounders was obtained from baseline and follow-up surveys and examinations, and participants who developed prediabetes or type 2 diabetes were identified by self-reported physician diagnosis or OGTT at follow-up. Adjusted associations were assessed by linear, logistic, and random-effects models. Results: The mean (± SD) increases in BMI and waist circumference during follow-up were 1.09 ± 1.97 kg/m2 and 4.39 ± 6.39 cm, respectively. The cumulative incidence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes was 8% and 3%, respectively. Based on an ordinal noise variable, a 5-dB(A) increase in aircraft noise was associated with a greater increase in waist circumference of 1.51 cm (95% CI: 1.13, 1.89), fully adjusted. This association appeared particularly strong among those who did not change their home address during the study period, which may be a result of lower exposure misclassification. However, no clear associations were found for BMI or type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, sleep disturbances did not appear to modify the associations with aircraft noise. Conclusions: Long-term aircraft noise exposure may be linked to metabolic outcomes, in particular increased waist circumference. Citation: Eriksson C, Hilding A, Pyko A, Bluhm G, Pershagen G, Östenson CG. 2014. Long-term aircraft noise exposure and body mass index, waist circumference, and type 2 diabetes: a prospective study. Environ Health Perspect 122:687–694; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307115 PMID:24800763

Circumstellar dust in symbiotic novae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurkic, Tomislav; Kotnik-Karuza, Dubravka

2015-08-01

Physical properties of the circumstellar dust and associated physical mechanisms play an important role in understanding evolution of symbiotic binaries. We present a model of inner dust regions around the cool Mira component of the two symbiotic novae, RR Tel and HM Sge, based on the long-term near-IR photometry, infrared ISO spectra and mid-IR interferometry. Pulsation properties and long-term variabilities were found from the near-IR light curves. The dust properties were determined using the DUSTY code which solves the radiative transfer. No changes in pulsational parameters were found, but a long-term variations with periods of 20-25 years have been detected which cannot be attributed to orbital motion.Circumstellar silicate dust shell with inner dust shell temperatures between 900 K and 1300 K and of moderate optical depth can explain all the observations. RR Tel showed the presence of an optically thin CS dust envelope and an optically thick dust region outside the line of sight, which was further supported by the detailed modelling using the 2D LELUYA code. Obscuration events in RR Tel were explained by an increase in optical depth caused by the newly condensed dust leading to the formation of a compact dust shell. HM Sge showed permanent obscuration and a presence of a compact dust shell with a variable optical depth. Scattering of the near-IR colours can be understood by a change in sublimation temperature caused by the Mira variability. Presence of large dust grains (up to 4 µm) suggests an increased grain growth in conditions of increased mass loss. The mass loss rates of up to 17·10-6 MSun/yr were significantly higher than in intermediate-period single Miras and in agreement with longer-period O-rich AGB stars.Despite the nova outburst, HM Sge remained enshrouded in dust with no significant dust destruction. The existence of unperturbed dust shell suggests a small influence of the hot component and strong dust shielding from the UV flux. By the use of the CLOUDY code, we have showed that a high-density gas region can effectively stop most of the UV flux from the white dwarf and provide the observed dust shielding.

Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

2015-06-01

Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

Reconstruction of daily solar UV irradiation from 1893 to 2002 in Potsdam, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junk, Jürgen; Feister, Uwe; Helbig, Alfred

2007-08-01

Long-term records of solar UV radiation reaching the Earth’s surface are scarce. Radiative transfer calculations and statistical models are two options used to reconstruct decadal changes in solar UV radiation from long-term records of measured atmospheric parameters that contain information on the effect of clouds, atmospheric aerosols and ground albedo on UV radiation. Based on earlier studies, where the long-term variation of daily solar UV irradiation was derived from measured global and diffuse irradiation as well as atmospheric ozone by a non-linear regression method [Feister et al. (2002) Photochem Photobiol 76:281 293], we present another approach for the reconstruction of time series of solar UV radiation. An artificial neural network (ANN) was trained with measurements of solar UV irradiation taken at the Meteorological Observatory in Potsdam, Germany, as well as measured parameters with long-term records such as global and diffuse radiation, sunshine duration, horizontal visibility and column ozone. This study is focussed on the reconstruction of daily broad-band UV-B (280 315 nm), UV-A (315 400 nm) and erythemal UV irradiation (ER). Due to the rapid changes in cloudiness at mid-latitude sites, solar UV irradiance exhibits appreciable short-term variability. One of the main advantages of the statistical method is that it uses doses of highly variable input parameters calculated from individual spot measurements taken at short time intervals, which thus do represent the short-term variability of solar irradiance.

Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

PubMed

Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

2015-03-01

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short and Long-Term Outcomes After Surgical Procedures Lasting for More Than Six Hours.

PubMed

Cornellà, Natalia; Sancho, Joan; Sitges-Serra, Antonio

2017-08-23

Long-term all-cause mortality and dependency after complex surgical procedures have not been assessed in the framework of value-based medicine. The aim of this study was to investigate the postoperative and long-term outcomes after surgical procedures lasting for more than six hours. Retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing a first elective complex surgical procedure between 2004 and 2013. Heart and transplant surgery was excluded. Mortality and dependency from the healthcare system were selected as outcome variables. Gender, age, ASA, creatinine, albumin kinetics, complications, benign vs malignant underlying condition, number of drugs at discharge, and admission and length of stay in the ICU were recorded as predictive variables. Some 620 adult patients were included in the study. Postoperative, <1year and <5years cumulative mortality was 6.8%, 17.6% and 45%, respectively. Of patients discharged from hospital after surgery, 76% remained dependent on the healthcare system. In multivariate analysis for postoperative, <1year and <5years mortality, postoperative albumin concentration, ASA score and an ICU stay >7days, were the most significant independent predictive variables. Prolonged surgery carries a significant short and long-term mortality and disability. These data may contribute to more informed decisions taken concerning major surgery in the framework of value-based medicine.

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

OH and halogen atom influence on the variability of non-methane hydrocarbons in the Antarctic Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Katie A.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Salmon, Rhian A.; Jones, Anna E.; Bauguitte, Stéphane

2007-02-01

Measurements of C2-C8 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) have been made in situ at Halley Base, Antarctica (75°35'S, 26°19'W) from February 2004 to February 2005 as part of the Chemistry of the Antarctic Boundary Layer and the Interface with Snow (CHABLIS) experiment. The data show long- and short-term variabilities in NMHCs controlled by the seasonal and geographic dependence of emissions and variation in atmospheric removal rates and pathways. Ethane, propane, iso-butane, n-butane and acetylene abundances followed a general OH-dependent sinusoidal seasonal cycle. The yearly averages were 186, 31, 3.2, 4.9 and 19 pptV, respectively, lower than those which were reported in some previous studies. Superimposed on a seasonal cycle was shorter-term variability that could be attributed to both synoptic airmass variability and localized loss processes due to other radical species. Hydrocarbon variability during periods of hour-to-day-long surface O3 depletion in late winter/early spring indicated active halogen atom chemistry estimated to be in the range 1.7 × 103-3.4 × 104 atom cm-3 for Cl and 4.8 × 106-9.6 × 107 atom cm-3 for Br. Longer-term negative deviations from sinusoidal behaviour in the late August were indicative of NMHC reaction with a persistent [Cl] of 2.3 × 103 atom cm-3. Maximum ethene and propene of 157 and 179 pptV, respectively, were observed in the late February/early March, consistent with increased oceanic biogenic emissions; however, their presence was significant year-round (June-August concentrations of 17.1 +/- 18.3 and 7.9 +/- 20.0 pptV, respectively).

The impact of temperament and character inventory personality traits on long-term outcome of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

PubMed

Gordon, Pedro Caldana; Sallet, José Afonso; Sallet, Paulo Clemente

2014-10-01

A significant proportion of patients who undergo bariatric surgery fail to achieve enduring weight loss. Previous studies suggest that psychosocial variables affect postoperative outcome, although this subject is still considered unclear. The purpose of this study is to further investigate the impact of psychosocial variables on Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) outcomes over long-term follow-up. Individuals eligible for bariatric surgery were evaluated using validated psychopathological scales and the Temperament and Character Inventory in a specialized clinic for bariatric treatment. Adult patients who had RYGB were selected for the study. Percent of excess weight loss (%EWL) was measured after surgery at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and on the last clinical observation. This study included 333 subjects who had RYGB. Before surgery, mean age was 35.4 years (±9.5) and mean BMI was 43.3 kg/m(2) (±4.8). Higher baseline age and BMI were associated with lower %EWL across endpoints, although this association diminished over time. Follow up at 2 years and on the last clinical observation demonstrated that lower scores on the persistence personality variable and lower body dissatisfaction before surgery predicted lower %EWL. Psychosocial variables and personality traits assessed during preoperative evaluation significantly predicted weight loss after bariatric surgery. Greater impact was observed in long-term follow-up at 2 years. These findings provide guidance in identifying patients at risk for worse outcomes and designing interventions to improve long-term weight loss.

Long-Term and Rapid Radio Variability of the Blazar 3C 454.3 in 2010-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorshkov, A. G.; Ipatov, A. V.; Ipatova, I. A.; Konnikova, V. K.; Mardyshkin, V. V.; Mingaliev, M. G.; Kharinov, M. A.

2018-03-01

The article presents the results of observations of the blazar 3C 454.3 (J2253+1608), obtained in 2010-2017 on the RATAN-600 radio telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory at 4.6, 8.2, 11.2, and 21.7 GHz and on the 32-m Zelenchuk and Badary radio telescopes of the Quasar VLBI Network of the Institute of Applied Astronomy at 4.84 and 8.57 GHz. Long-term variability of the radio emission is studied, as well as variability on time scales of several days and intraday variability (IDV). Two flares were observed in the long-term light curve, in 2010 and in 2015-2017. The flux density at 21.7 GHz increased by a factor of ten during these flares. The delay in the maximum of the first flare at 4.85 GHz relative to the maximum at 21.7 GHz was six months. The time scale for variability on the descending branch of the first flare at 21.7 GHz was τvar = 1.2 yrs, yielding an upper limit on the linear size of the emitting region of 0.4 pc, corresponding to an angular size of 0.06 mas. The brightness temperature during the flare exceeded the Compton limit, implying a Doppler factor δ = 3.5, consistent with the known presence of a relativistic jet oriented close to the line of sight. No significant variability on time scales from several days to several weeks was found in five sets of daily observations carried out over 120 days. IDV was detected at 8.57 GHz on the 32-m telescopes in 30 of 61 successful observing sessions, with the presence of IDV correlated with the maxima of flares. The characteristic time scale for the IDV was from two to ten hours. A number of IDV light curves show the presence of a time delay in the maxima in the light curves for simultaneous observations carried out on the Badary and Zelenchuk antennas, which are widely separated in longitude. This demonstrates that the IDV most like arises in the interstellar medium.

Can unforced radiative variability explain the "hiatus"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohoe, A.

2016-02-01

The paradox of the "hiatus" is characterized as a decade long period over which global mean surface temperature remained relatively constant even though greenhouse forcing forcing is believed to have been positive and increasing. Explanations of the hiatus have focused on two primary lines of thought: 1. There was a net radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere (TOA) but this energy input was stored in the ocean without increasing surface temperature or 2. There was no radiative imbalance at the TOA because the greenhouse forcing was offset by other climate forcings. Here, we explore a third hypothesis: that there was no TOA radiative imbalance over the decade due to unforced, natural modes of radiative variability that are unrelated to global mean temperature. Is it possible that the Earth could emit enough radiation to offset greenhouse forcing without increasing its temperature due to internal modes of climate variability? Global mean TOA energy imbalance is estimated to be 0.65 W m-2 as determined from the long term change in ocean heat content - where the majority of the energy imbalance is stored. Therefore, in order to offset this TOA energy imbalance natural modes of radiative variability with amplitudes of order 0.5 W m-2 at the decadal timescale are required. We demonstrate that unforced coupled climate models have global mean radiative variability of the required magnitude (2 standard deviations of 0.57 W m-2 in the inter-model mean) and that the vast majority (>90%) of this variability is unrelated to surface temperature radiative feedbacks. However, much of this variability is at shorter (monthly and annual) timescales and does not persist from year to year making the possibility of a decade long natural interruption of the energy accumulation in the climate system unlikely due to natural radiative variability alone given the magnitude of the greenhouse forcing on Earth. Comparison to observed satellite data suggest the models capture the magnitude (2 sigma = 0.61 W m-2) and mechanisms of internal radiative variability but we cannot exclude the possibility of low frequency modes of variability with significant magnitude given the limited length of the satellite record.

Sometimes processes don't matter: the general effect of short term climate variability on erosional systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

2017-04-01

Climatic forcing undoubtedly plays an important role in shaping the Earth's surface. However, precisely how climate affects erosion rates, landscape morphology and the sedimentary record is highly debated. Recently there has been a focus on the influence of short-term variability in rainfall and river discharge on the relationship between climate and erosion rates. Here, we present a simple probabilistic argument, backed by modelling, that demonstrates that the way the Earth's surface responds to short-term climatic forcing variability is primarily determined by the existence and magnitude of erosional thresholds. We find that it is the ratio between the threshold magnitude and the mean magnitude of climatic forcing that determines whether variability matters or not and in which way. This is a fundamental result that applies regardless of the nature of the erosional process. This means, for example, that we can understand the role that discharge variability plays in determining fluvial erosion efficiency despite doubts about the processes involved in fluvial erosion. We can use this finding to reproduce the main conclusions of previous studies on the role of discharge variability in determining long-term fluvial erosion efficiency. Many aspects of the landscape known to influence discharge variability are affected by human activity, such as land use and river damming. Another important control on discharge variability, rainfall intensity, is also expected to increase with warmer temperatures. Among many other implications, our findings help provide a general framework to understand and predict the response of the Earth's surface to changes in mean and variability of rainfall and river discharge associated with the anthropogenic activity. In addition, the process independent nature of our findings suggest that previous work on river discharge variability and erosion thresholds can be applied to other erosional systems.

Long-term efficacy of reverse pull headgear therapy.

PubMed

Wells, Andrew P; Sarver, David M; Proffit, William R

2006-11-01

To add to the data for long-term reverse pull headgear (RPHG) outcomes and further explore possible variables that could be predictors of long-term failure. Cephalometric radiographs of 41 Class III malocclusion children treated with RPHG (face mask) were evaluated before and immediately after treatment; at 5 years posttreatment; and, for 18 patients, at 10 years posttreatment. Patients were assigned to success or failure groups according to positive or negative overjet at the longest available recall. Seventy-five percent of the patients maintained positive overjet, whereas 25% outgrew the correction. In a stepwise discriminant analysis, a large mandible and vertical positioning of the maxilla and mandible so that mandibular growth would be projected more horizontally were the major indicators of unfavorable later mandibular growth. Patients who experienced downward-backward rotation of the mandible during RPHG treatment were more likely to be categorized in the failure group. The age at which treatment began had no effect on long-term success and failure for patients younger than 10 years, but the percentage of successful treatment decreased after that age. When RPHG treatment is used for all but the most obviously prognathic children to correct anterior cross-bite in the early mixed dentition, positive overjet is maintained long-term in 70%-75% of cases, whereas 25%-30% of cases relapse into reverse overjet mainly because of increased horizontally directed and often late mandibular growth. Up to age 10, the time at which RPHG treatment began does not appear to be a major factor in long-term success in maintaining positive overjet.

Characterizing a Century of Climate and Hydrological Variability of a Mediterranean and Mountainous Watersheds: the Durance River Case-Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Kuentz, A.; Gailhard, J.; Andreassian, V.

2013-12-01

Improving the understanding of mountain watersheds hydrological variability is a great scientific issue, for both researchers and water resources managers, such as Electricite de France (Energy and Hydropower Company). The past and current context of climate variability enhances the interest on this topic, since multi-purposes water resources management is highly sensitive to this variability. The Durance River watershed (14000 km2), situated in the French Alps, is a good example of the complexity of this issue. It is characterized by a variety of hydrological processes (from snowy to Mediterranean regimes) and a wide range of anthropogenic influences (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, tourism and water supply), mixing potential causes of changes in its hydrological regimes. As water related stakes are numerous in this watershed, improving knowledge on the hydrological variability of the Durance River appears to be essential. In this presentation, we would like to focus on a methodology we developed to build long-term historical hydrometeorological time-series, based on atmospheric reanalysis (20CR : 20th Century Reanalysis) and historical local observations. This methodology allowed us to generate precipitation, air temperature and streamflow time-series at a daily time-step for a sample of 22 watersheds, for the 1883-2010 period. These long-term streamflow reconstructions have been validated thanks to historical searches that allowed to bring to light ten long historical series of daily streamflows, beginning on the early 20th century. Reconstructions appear to have rather good statistical properties, with good correlation (greater than 0.8) and limited mean and variance bias (less than 5%). Then, these long-term hydrometeorological time-series allowed us to characterize the past variability in terms of available water resources, droughts or hydrological regime. These analyses help water resources managers to better know the range of hydrological variabilities, which are usually greatly underestimated with classical available time-series (less than 50 years).

Millennia-long tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand: a basis for modelling climate variability and forcing, past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Edward R.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Fenwick, Pavla; Peterson, Michael J.; Boswijk, Gretel; Fowler, Anthony

2006-10-01

Progress in the development of millennia-long tree-ring chronologies from Australia and New Zealand is reviewed from the perspective of modelling long-term climate variability there. Three tree species have proved successful in this regard: Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii) from Tasmania, silver pine (L. colensoi) from the South Island of New Zealand, and kauri (Agathis australis) from the North Island of New Zealand. Each of these species is very long-lived and produces abundant quantities of well-preserved wood for extending their tree-ring chronologies back several millennia into the past. The growth patterns on these chronologies strongly correlate with both local and regional warm-season temperature changes over significant areas of the Southern Hemisphere (especially Huon and silver pine) and to ENSO variability emanating from the equatorial Pacific region (especially kauri). In addition, there is evidence for significant, band-limited, multi-decadal and centennial timescale variability in the warm-season temperature reconstruction based on Huon pine tree rings that may be related to slowly varying changes in ocean circulation dynamics in the southern Indian Ocean. This suggests the possibility of long-term climate predictability there. Copyright

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

2013-03-01

Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

2011-01-01

The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

Long-period variability of oxygen dissolved in Black Sea waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A. B.; Kotolypova, A. A.

2017-09-01

Using an archival database from the Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, the low-frequency variability of oxygen dissolved in the deep-water and northwestern parts of the Black Sea for the period of 1955-2004 is analyzed. The upper mixed layer (UML) is characterized by quasi-periodic variability in the dissolved oxygen concentration in the interdecadal scale. Deeper, a long-term decrease in the oxygen concentration is recorded.

Internal phosphorus loading across a cascade of three eutrophic basins: A synthesis of short- and long-term studies.

PubMed

Tammeorg, Olga; Horppila, Jukka; Tammeorg, Priit; Haldna, Marina; Niemistö, Juha

2016-12-01

Ascertaining the phosphorus (P) release processes in polymictic lakes is one of the methodologically most complex questions in limnology. In the current study, we combined short- and long-term investigations to elucidate the role of sediments in the P budget in a chain of eutrophic lake basins. We quantified the internal loading of P in three basins of Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia) for two periods characterized by different external P loadings using radiometrically dated sediment cores (long-term studies). The relationships between different water quality variables and the internal P loading, and the external P loading were studied. Our short-term studies aimed at elucidating the possible mechanisms behind variations in internal P loading included examination of the surficial sediments, i.e., seasonal measurements of redox potential, sediment pore water P concentrations and diffusive fluxes. Our results provided evidence for a potentially high importance of internal P loading in regulating water quality. The sediment core analyses revealed an increase in the internal P loading during the period of lower external P loading coinciding with the general deterioration in the lake water quality (i.e, higher concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus and biomass of cyanobacteria). Increase in wave action between the two studied periods appeared to cause more frequent sediment resuspension, and thus be the most likely reason for the variations in internal P loading. Our short-term measurements indicated that resuspension events can be followed by a considerable increase in the diffusive fluxes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revealing the ultrafast outflow in IRAS 13224-3809 through spectral variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, M. L.; Alston, W. N.; Buisson, D. J. K.; Fabian, A. C.; Jiang, J.; Kara, E.; Lohfink, A.; Pinto, C.; Reynolds, C. S.

2017-08-01

We present an analysis of the long-term X-ray variability of the extreme narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy IRAS 13224-3809 using principal component analysis (PCA) and fractional excess variability (Fvar) spectra to identify model-independent spectral components. We identify a series of variability peaks in both the first PCA component and Fvar spectrum which correspond to the strongest predicted absorption lines from the ultrafast outflow (UFO) discovered by Parker et al. (2017). We also find higher order PCA components, which correspond to variability of the soft excess and reflection features. The subtle differences between RMS and PCA results argue that the observed flux-dependence of the absorption is due to increased ionization of the gas, rather than changes in column density or covering fraction. This result demonstrates that we can detect outflows from variability alone and that variability studies of UFOs are an extremely promising avenue for future research.

Meteorological fluctuations define long-term crop yield patterns in conventional and organic production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Periodic variability in meteorological patterns presents significant challenges to crop production consistency and yield stability. Meteorological influences on corn and soybean grain yields were analyzed over an 18-year period at a long-term experiment in Beltsville, Maryland, U.S.A., comparing c...

Women with Chronic Physical Disabilities: Correlates of Their Long-Term Psychosocial Adaptation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dangoor, Nira; Florian, Victor

1994-01-01

This study examined the effects of demographic factors, disability status, and individual internal resources to the long-term psychosocial adjustment of 88 married women with orthopedic, neurological, and internal chronic diseases. Results suggest that sense of coherence and socioeconomic status, rather than disability status variables, accounted…

Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

Short- and long-term theory-based predictors of physical activity in women who participated in a weight-management program.

PubMed

Wasserkampf, A; Silva, M N; Santos, I C; Carraça, E V; Meis, J J M; Kremers, S P J; Teixeira, P J

2014-12-01

This study analyzed psychosocial predictors of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT) and evaluated their associations with short- and long-term moderate plus vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and lifestyle physical activity (PA) outcomes in women who underwent a weight-management program. 221 participants (age 37.6 ± 7.02 years) completed a 12-month SDT-based lifestyle intervention and were followed-up for 24 months. Multiple linear regression analyses tested associations between psychosocial variables and self-reported short- and long-term PA outcomes. Regression analyses showed that control constructs of both theories were significant determinants of short- and long-term MVPA, whereas affective and self-determination variables were strong predictors of short- and long-term lifestyle PA. Regarding short-term prediction models, TPB constructs were stronger in predicting MVPA, whereas SDT was more effective in predicting lifestyle PA. For long-term models, both forms of PA were better predicted by SDT in comparison to TPB. These results highlight the importance of comparing health behavior theories to identify the mechanisms involved in the behavior change process. Control and competence constructs are crucial during early adoption of structured PA behaviors, whereas affective and intrinsic sources of motivation are more involved in incidental types of PA, particularly in relation to behavioral maintenance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus

PubMed Central

Wang, Linying; Yuan, Xing; Xie, Zhenghui; Wu, Peili; Li, Yaohui

2016-01-01

The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as “flash droughts” accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China. PMID:27513724

Long-term and within-day variability of working memory performance and EEG in individuals.

PubMed

Gevins, Alan; McEvoy, Linda K; Smith, Michael E; Chan, Cynthia S; Sam-Vargas, Lita; Baum, Cliff; Ilan, Aaron B

2012-07-01

Assess individual-subject long-term and within-day variability of a combined behavioral and EEG test of working memory. EEGs were recorded from 16 adults performing n-back working memory tasks, with 10 tested in morning and afternoon sessions over several years. Participants were also tested after ingesting non-prescription medications or recreational substances. Performance and EEG measures were analyzed to derive an Overall score and three constituent sub-scores characterizing changes in performance, cortical activation, and alertness from each individual's baseline. Long-term and within-day variability were determined for each score; medication effects were assessed by reference to each individual's normal day-to-day variability. Over the several year period, the mean Overall score and sub-scores were approximately zero with standard deviations less than one. Overall scores were lower and their variability higher in afternoon relative to morning sessions. At the group level, alcohol, diphenhydramine and marijuana produced significant effects, but there were large individual differences. Objective working memory measures incorporating performance and EEG are stable over time and sensitive at the level of individual subjects to interventions that affect neurocognitive function. With further research these measures may be suitable for use in individualized medical care by providing a sensitive assessment of incipient illness and response to treatment. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems.

PubMed

Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A; Folke, Carl; van Nes, Egbert H; Scheffer, Marten

2015-11-17

Variable flows of food, water, or other ecosystem services complicate planning. Management strategies that decrease variability and increase predictability may therefore be preferred. However, actions to decrease variance over short timescales (2-4 y), when applied continuously, may lead to long-term ecosystem changes with adverse consequences. We investigated the effects of managing short-term variance in three well-understood models of ecosystem services: lake eutrophication, harvest of a wild population, and yield of domestic herbivores on a rangeland. In all cases, actions to decrease variance can increase the risk of crossing critical ecosystem thresholds, resulting in less desirable ecosystem states. Managing to decrease short-term variance creates ecosystem fragility by changing the boundaries of safe operating spaces, suppressing information needed for adaptive management, cancelling signals of declining resilience, and removing pressures that may build tolerance of stress. Thus, the management of variance interacts strongly and inseparably with the management of resilience. By allowing for variation, learning, and flexibility while observing change, managers can detect opportunities and problems as they develop while sustaining the capacity to deal with them.

Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Folke, Carl; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

2015-01-01

Variable flows of food, water, or other ecosystem services complicate planning. Management strategies that decrease variability and increase predictability may therefore be preferred. However, actions to decrease variance over short timescales (2–4 y), when applied continuously, may lead to long-term ecosystem changes with adverse consequences. We investigated the effects of managing short-term variance in three well-understood models of ecosystem services: lake eutrophication, harvest of a wild population, and yield of domestic herbivores on a rangeland. In all cases, actions to decrease variance can increase the risk of crossing critical ecosystem thresholds, resulting in less desirable ecosystem states. Managing to decrease short-term variance creates ecosystem fragility by changing the boundaries of safe operating spaces, suppressing information needed for adaptive management, cancelling signals of declining resilience, and removing pressures that may build tolerance of stress. Thus, the management of variance interacts strongly and inseparably with the management of resilience. By allowing for variation, learning, and flexibility while observing change, managers can detect opportunities and problems as they develop while sustaining the capacity to deal with them. PMID:26438857

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China.

PubMed

Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

2013-06-01

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 - 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 - 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2013-01-01

An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

Multi-proxy palaeoclimate reconstructions from peatlands in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, Thomas; Hughes, Paul; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van Bellen, Simon; Daley, Tim; Loader, Neil; Street-Perrott, Alayne

2014-05-01

There is a relative paucity of palaeoclimatic archives in South America relative to many other regions of the world. This paucity must be addressed in order to validate climate models and improve our understanding of the global climate system. The southern westerlies represent an important component of climatic variability in the region and, in turn, their migration and changes in their intensity can play a key role in determining whether the Southern Ocean functions as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Increased ventilation of deep waters with elevated concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon, driven by enhanced Ekman transport, leads to increased outgassing of carbon dioxide. However, as instrumental records are limited to the latter half of the twentieth century, little is known about the long-term variability of the southern Westerlies and their subsequent effects. The Peninsula Brunswick and Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego are directly situated in the core path of the southern westerlies during the Austral summer and they are ideally suited for studies of past variability in westerly intensity and position. The region's abundant peatlands are capable of recording these long-term changes, as wind intensity and westerly position affects precipitation and temperature, two key drivers (i.e. P-E) of water-table dynamics in ombrotrophic peatlands. Currently, the peatlands of southern Patagonia represent a relatively unexploited resource in terms of palaeoclimate reconstruction. As a result, we have developed a new regional network of multi-proxy (testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, stable isotopes) archives, supported by high-resolution radiocarbon chronologies, to develop quantitative climate reconstructions for southern South America spanning the last ~2000 years using Sphagnum magellanicum-dominated peat deposits.

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Surfing wave climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

2016-08-01

A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

Biofeedback training effects on minimum toe clearance variability during treadmill walking.

PubMed

Tirosh, Oren; Cambell, Amity; Begg, Rezaul K; Sparrow, W A

2013-08-01

A number of variability analysis techniques, including Poincaré plots and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) were used to investigate minimum toe clearance (MTC) control during walking. Ten young adults walked on a treadmill for 10 min at preferred speed in three conditions: (i) no-intervention baseline, (ii) with biofeedback of MTC within a target range, and (iii) no-biofeedback retention. Mean, median, standard deviation (SD), and inter quartile range of MTC during biofeedback (45.57 ± 11.65, 44.98 ± 11.57, 7.08 ± 2.61, 8.58 ± 2.77 mm, respectively) and retention (56.95 ± 20.31, 56.69 ± 20.94, 10.68 ± 5.41, 15.38 ± 10.19 mm) were significantly greater than baseline (30.77 ± 9.49, 30.51 ± 9.49, 3.04 ± 0.77, 3.66 ± 0.91 mm). Relative to baseline, skewness was reduced in biofeedback and retention but only significantly for retention (0.88 ± 0.51, 0.63 ± 0.55, and 0.40 ± 0.40, respectively). Baseline Poincaré measures (SD1 = 0.25, SD2 = 0.34) and DFA (α1 = 0.72 and α2 = 0.64) were lower than biofeedback (SD1 = 0.58, SD2 = 0.83, DFA α1 = 0.76 and α2 = 0.92) with significantly greater variability in retention compared to biofeedback only in the long-term SD2 and α2 analyses. Increased DFA longer-term correlations α2 in retention confirm that a novel gait pattern was acquired with a longer-term variability structure. Short- and long-term variability analyses were both useful in quantifying gait adaptations with biofeedback. The findings provide evidence that MTC can be modified with feedback, suggesting future applications in gait training procedures for impaired populations designed to reduce tripping risk.

Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, A.

2012-05-01

Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long term cycles. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and memory properties to better understand natural patterns and in particular long term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

Detection and Prevention of Cardiac Arrhythmias During Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pillai, Dilip; Rosenbaum, David S.; Liszka, Kathy J.; York, David W.; Mackin, Michael A.; Lichter, Michael J.

2004-01-01

There have been reports suggesting that long-duration space flight might lead to an increased risk of potentially serious heart rhythm disturbances. If space flight does, in fact, significantly decrease cardiac electrical stability, the effects could be catastrophic, potentially leading to sudden cardiac death. It will be important to determine the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon in order to prepare for long-term manned lunar and interplanetary missions and to develop appropriate countermeasures. Electrical alternans affecting the ST segment and T-wave have been demonstrated to be common among patients at increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias. Subtle electrical alternans on the ECG may serve as a noninvasive marker of vulnerability to ventricular arrhythmias. We are studying indices of electrical instability in the heart for long term space missions by non-invasively measuring microvolt level T-wave alternans in a reduced gravity environment. In this investigation we are using volunteer subjects on the KC-135 aircraft as an initial study of the effect of electrical adaptation of the heart to microgravity. T-wave alternans will be analyzed for heart rate variability and QT restitution curve plotting will be compared for statistical significance.

Variations in the Orbital Light Curve of the Magnetic Cataclysmic Variable Star QQ Vulpecula (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, S. C.

2017-06-01

(Abstract only) Magnetic cataclysmic variable stars have brightness variations that repeat with each revolution of the two stars about the center of mass of the system. However, in the case of QQ Vulpecula, this brightness variation pattern changes in the long term. This study makes use of two decades worth of data from the Roboscope Telescope as well as data from the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) database to examine the long-term evolution of QQ Vul's phase curves. Nightly observations using the Maria Mitchell Association Vestal and Loines Observatory supplemented this analysis by clarifying short-term brightness variation. The long-term data was divided into four commonly observed behavioral types ranging from a double peaked curve of 15.5 magnitude to a 15.0 magnitude curve that had a primary minimum and a slow, linear rise in brightness in place of the secondary minimum. The nightly data kept within the confines of these categories, though the secondary minimum in the nightly data never vanished. No periodicity was found in the long-term variations. The model often invoked to explain the double peaked curve consists of single pole accretion in which a partial self-eclipse causes the secondary minimum and cyclotron beaming causes the primary minimum. However, the long-term variation may indicate a changing accretion rate, which may manifest itself in changes to the shape, size, or location of the accretion spot on the white dwarf such that it lessens or removes the secondary minimum. This project was supported by the NSF REU grant AST-1358980, the Massachusetts Space Grant, and the Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association.

Assessing the Value of Post-processed State-of-the-art Long-term Weather Forecast Ensembles within An Integrated Agronomic Modelling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2014-12-01

Over recent years, long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs) has been demonstrated to show increasing skills over the climatology, thanks to the advances in the modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Improved information from long-term forecast is supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, evaluating how valuable this information can be is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, while long-range forecast are traditionally evaluated in terms of accuracy by comparison of hindcast and observed values, in the context of agricultural systems, potentially useful forecast information should alter the stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions and ultimately have an impact on their annual benefit. Therefore, it is more desirable to assess the value of those long-term forecasts via decision-making models so as to extract direct indication of probable decision outcomes from farmers, i.e. from an end-to-end perspective. In this work, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast ensembles against climatology forecast and subjective prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of farmers' behavior. Collected ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and distributed crop simulation model. The agronomic model is first simulated using the forecast information (ex-ante), followed by a second run with actual climate (ex-post). Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability and the value of the different climate forecast is evaluated against the perfect foresight scenario based on the expected crop productivity as well as the land-use decisions. Our results show that not all the products generate beneficial effects to farmers and that the forecast errors might be amplified by the farmers decisions.

Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

2009-09-01

We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.

PubMed

Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya

2017-02-01

Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.

Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.

1997-09-01

Long-term data of year class strengths of different commercially harvested fish stocks based on a virtual population analysis (VPA) are available from ICES. The anomalies of these long-term data sets of year class strength are analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and are related to climate variability: the anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern North Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between the leading eigenmodes is performed. The results suggest that the variability in the fish recruitment of western mackerel and three gadoids, namely North Sea cod, North Sea saithe, and North Sea whiting is highly correlated to the variability of the North Sea SST which is directly influenced by the NAO. For North Sea haddock and herring no meaningful correlation exists to North Sea SST and NAO. The results allow the conclusion that is seems possible to predict long-term changes in the fish recruitment from climate change scenarios for North Sea cod, North Sea saithe and western mackerel. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of recruitment failure for North Sea cod, North Sea whiting, and western mackerel in the case of global warming.

Spatiotemporal variability of snow depth across the Eurasian continent from 1966 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Xinyue; Zhang, Tingjun; Kang, Shichang; Wang, Kang; Zheng, Lei; Hu, Yuantao; Wang, Huijuan

2018-01-01

Snow depth is one of the key physical parameters for understanding land surface energy balance, soil thermal regime, water cycle, and assessing water resources from local community to regional industrial water supply. Previous studies by using in situ data are mostly site specific; data from satellite remote sensing may cover a large area or global scale, but uncertainties remain large. The primary objective of this study is to investigate spatial variability and temporal change in snow depth across the Eurasian continent. Data used include long-term (1966-2012) ground-based measurements from 1814 stations. Spatially, long-term (1971-2000) mean annual snow depths of >20 cm were recorded in northeastern European Russia, the Yenisei River basin, Kamchatka Peninsula, and Sakhalin. Annual mean and maximum snow depth increased by 0.2 and 0.6 cm decade-1 from 1966 through 2012. Seasonally, monthly mean snow depth decreased in autumn and increased in winter and spring over the study period. Regionally, snow depth significantly increased in areas north of 50° N. Compared with air temperature, snowfall had greater influence on snow depth during November through March across the former Soviet Union. This study provides a baseline for snow depth climatology and changes across the Eurasian continent, which would significantly help to better understanding climate system and climate changes on regional, hemispheric, or even global scales.

Financial incentives to discontinue long-term benzodiazepine use: a discrete choice experiment investigating patient preferences and willingness to participate.

PubMed

Marti, Joachim; Bachhuber, Marcus; Feingold, Jordyn; Meads, David; Richards, Michael; Hennessy, Sean

2017-10-06

Investigate the acceptability of financial incentives for initiating a medically supervised benzodiazepine discontinuation programme among people with long-term benzodiazepine use and to identify programme features that influence willingness to participate. We conducted a discrete choice experiment in which we presented a variety of incentive-based programs to a sample of older adults with long-term benzodiazepine use identified using the outpatient electronic health record of a university-owned health system. We studied four programme variables: incentive amount for initiating the programme, incentive amount for successful benzodiazepine discontinuation, lottery versus certain payment and whether partial payment was given for dose reduction. Respondents reported their willingness to participate in the programmes and additional information was collected on demographics, history of use and anxiety symptoms. The overall response rate was 28.4%. Among the 126 respondents, all four programme variables influenced stated preferences. Respondents strongly preferred guaranteed cash-based incentives as opposed to a lottery, and the dollar amount of both the starting and conditional incentives had a substantial impact on choice. Willingness to participate increased with the amount of conditional incentive. Programme participation also varied by gender, duration of use and income. Participation in an incentive-based benzodiazepine discontinuation programme might be relatively low, but is modifiable by programme variables including incentive amounts. These results will be helpful to inform the design of future trials of benzodiazepine discontinuation programmes. Further research is needed to assess the financial viability and potential cost-effectiveness of such economic incentives. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Behavioral biomarkers of aging: illustration of a multivariate approach for detecting age-related behavioral changes.

PubMed

Markowska, A L; Breckler, S J

1999-12-01

The goal of the current project is to develop a multivariate statistical strategy for the formation of behavioral indices of performance and, further, to apply this strategy to establish the relationship between age and important characteristics of performance. The strategy was to begin with a large set of measures that span a broad range of behaviors. The behavioral effects of the following variables were examined: Age (4, 12, 24, and 30 months), genotype [Fischer 344 and a hybrid (F1) of Fischer 344 and Brown Norway (F344xBN)], gender (Fischer 344 males and Fischer 344 females), long-term diet (ad lib diet or dietary restriction beginning at 4 months of age), and short-term diet (ad lib diet or dietary restriction during testing). The behavioral measures were grouped into conceptually related indicators. The indicators within a set were submitted to a principal component analysis to help identify the summary indices of performance, which were formed with the assumption that these component scores would offer more reliable and valid measures of relevant aspects of behavioral performance than would individual measures taken alone. In summary, this approach has made a number of important contributions. It has provided sensitive and selective measures of performance that indicated contributions of all variables: psychological process, age, genotype, gender, long-term and short-term diet and has increased the sensitivity of behavioral measures to age-related behavioral impairment. It has also improved task-manageability by decreasing the number of meaningful variables without losing important information, consequently providing a simplification of the pattern of changes.

Spatial variability of soil total and DTPA-extractable cadmium caused by long-term application of phosphate fertilizers, crop rotation, and soil characteristics.

PubMed

Jafarnejadi, A R; Sayyad, Gh; Homaee, M; Davamei, A H

2013-05-01

Increasing cadmium (Cd) accumulation in agricultural soils is undesirable due to its hazardous influences on human health. Thus, having more information on spatial variability of Cd and factors effective to increase its content on the cultivated soils is very important. Phosphate fertilizers are main contamination source of cadmium (Cd) in cultivated soils. Also, crop rotation is a critical management practice which can alter soil Cd content. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of long-term consumption of the phosphate fertilizers, crop rotations, and soil characteristics on spatial variability of two soil Cd species (i.e., total and diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA) extractable) in agricultural soils. The study was conducted in wheat farms of Khuzestan Province, Iran. Long-term (27-year period (1980 to 2006)) data including the rate and the type of phosphate fertilizers application, the respective area, and the rotation type of different regions were used. Afterwards, soil Cd content (total or DTPA extractable) and its spatial variability in study area (400,000 ha) were determined by sampling from soils of 255 fields. The results showed that the consumption rate of di-ammonium phosphate fertilizer have been varied enormously in the period study. The application rate of phosphorus fertilizers was very high in some subregions with have extensive agricultural activities (more than 95 kg/ha). The average and maximum contents of total Cd in the study region were obtained as 1.47 and 2.19 mg/kg and DTPA-extractable Cd as 0.084 and 0.35 mg/kg, respectively. The spatial variability of Cd indicated that total and DTPA-extractable Cd contents were over 0.8 and 0.1 mg/kg in 95 and 25 % of samples, respectively. The spherical model enjoys the best fitting and lowest error rate to appraise the Cd content. Comparing the phosphate fertilizer consumption rate with spatial variability of the soil cadmium (both total and DTPA extractable) revealed the high correlation between the consumption rate of P fertilizers and soil Cd content. Rotation type was likely the main effective factor on variations of the soil DTPA-extractable Cd contents in some parts (eastern part of study region) and could explain some Cd variation. Total Cd concentrations had significant correlation with the total neutralizing value (p < 0.01), available P (p < 0.01), cation exchange capacity (p < 0.05), and organic carbon (p < 0.05) variables. The DTPA-extractable Cd had significant correlation with OC (p < 0.01), pH, and clay content (p < 0.05). Therefore, consumption rate of the phosphate fertilizers and crop rotation are important factors on solubility and hence spatial variability of Cd content in agricultural soils.

Long-term changes in tree-ring – climate relationships at Mt. Patscherkofel (Tyrol, Austria) since the mid 1980s

PubMed Central

Oberhuber, Walter; Kofler, Werner; Pfeifer, Klaus; Seeber, Andrea; Gruber, Andreas; Wieser, Gerhard

2011-01-01

Although growth limitation of trees at Alpine and high-latitude timberlines by prevailing summer temperature is well established, loss of thermal response of radial tree growth during last decades has repeatedly been addressed. We examined long-term variability of climate-growth relationships in ring width chronologies of Stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) by means of moving response functions (MRF). The study area is situated in the timberline ecotone (c. 2000 – 2200 m a.s.l.) on Mt. Patscherkofel (Tyrol, Austria). Five site chronologies were developed within the ecotone with constant sample depth (≥ 19 trees) throughout most of the time period analysed. MRF calculated for the period 1866-1999 and 1901-1999 for c. 200 and c. 100 yr old stands, respectively, revealed that mean July temperature is the major and long-term stable driving force of Pinus cembra radial growth within the timberline ecotone. However, since the mid 1980s, radial growth in timberline and tree line chronologies strikingly diverges from the July temperature trend. This is probably a result of extreme climate events (e.g. low winter precipitation, late frost) and/or increasing drought stress on cambial activity. The latter assumption is supported by a < 10 % increase in annual increments of c. 50 yr old trees at the timberline and at the tree line in 2003 compared to 2002, when extraordinary hot and dry conditions prevailed during summer. Furthermore, especially during the second half of the 20th century, influence of climate variables on radial growth show abrupt fluctuations, which might also be a consequence of climate warming on tree physiology. PMID:21532976

Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

PubMed

da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

Causality and Cointegration Analysis between Macroeconomic Variables and the Bovespa

PubMed Central

da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%. PMID:24587019

Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohar, Abdelaziz A.; Ward, Frank A.; Amer, Saud A.

2013-03-01

SummaryContinued climate variability, population growth, and rising food prices present ongoing challenges for achieving food and water security in poor countries that lack adequate water infrastructure. Undeveloped storage infrastructure presents a special challenge in northern Afghanistan, where food security is undermined by highly variable water supplies, inefficient water allocation rules, and a damaged irrigation system due three decades of war and conflict. Little peer-reviewed research to date has analyzed the economic benefits of water storage capacity expansions as a mechanism to sustain food security over long periods of variable climate and growing food demands needed to feed growing populations. This paper develops and applies an integrated water resources management framework that analyzes impacts of storage capacity expansions for sustaining farm income and food security in the face of highly fluctuating water supplies. Findings illustrate that in Afghanistan's Balkh Basin, total farm income and food security from crop irrigation increase, but at a declining rate as water storage capacity increases from zero to an amount equal to six times the basin's long term water supply. Total farm income increases by 21%, 41%, and 42% for small, medium, and large reservoir capacity, respectively, compared to the existing irrigation system unassisted by reservoir storage capacity. Results provide a framework to target water infrastructure investments that improve food security for river basins in the world's dry regions with low existing storage capacity that face ongoing climate variability and increased demands for food security for growing populations.

Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

2017-09-01

The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

A Meta-Analysis of the Long-Term Effects of Phonemic Awareness, Phonics, Fluency, and Reading Comprehension Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suggate, Sebastian P.

2016-01-01

Much is known about short-term--but very little about the long-term--effects of reading interventions. To rectify this, a detailed analysis of follow-up effects as a function of intervention, sample, and methodological variables was conducted. A total of 71 intervention-control groups were selected (N = 8,161 at posttest) from studies reporting…

Redintegration and the Benefits of Long-Term Knowledge in Verbal Short-Term Memory: An Evaluation of Schweickert's (1993) Multinomial Processing Tree Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thorn, Annabel S. C.; Gathercole, Susan E.; Frankish, Clive R.

2005-01-01

The impact of four long-term knowledge variables on serial recall accuracy was investigated. Serial recall was tested for high and low frequency words and high and low phonotactic frequency nonwords in 2 groups: monolingual English speakers and French-English bilinguals. For both groups the recall advantage for words over nonwords reflected more…

Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Lee, Mihye; Liu, Pengfei; Di, Qian; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2017-03-01

Little is known about what factors modify the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality, in part because in most previous studies certain groups such as rural residents and individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) are under-represented. We studied 13.1 million Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥65) residing in seven southeastern US states during 2000-2013 with 95 million person-years of follow-up. We predicted annual average of PM2.5 in each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) using a hybrid spatiotemporal model. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between long-term PM2.5 and mortality. We tested effect modification by individual-level covariates (race, sex, eligibility for both Medicare and Medicaid, and medical history), neighborhood-level covariates (urbanicity, percentage below poverty level, lower education, median income, and median home value), mean summer temperature, and mass fraction of 11 PM2.5 components. The hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.021 (95% confidence interval: 1.019, 1.022) per 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5. The HR decreased with age. It was higher among males, non-whites, dual-eligible individuals, and beneficiaries with previous hospital admissions. It was higher in neighborhoods with lower SES or higher urbanicity. The HR increased with mean summer temperature. The risk associated with PM2.5 increased with relative concentration of elemental carbon, vanadium, copper, calcium, and iron and decreased with nitrate, organic carbon, and sulfate. Associations between long-term PM2.5 exposure and death were modified by individual-level, neighborhood-level variables, temperature, and chemical compositions.

Long-term (1993-2013) changes in macrozooplankton off the Western Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ruck, Kate E.; Gleiber, Miram R.; Garzio, Lori M.; Cope, Joseph S.; Bernard, Kim S.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Ross, Robin M.

2015-07-01

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and where a high apex predator biomass is supported in large part by macrozooplankton. We examined trends in summer (January-February) abundance of major taxa of macrozooplankton along the WAP over two decades (1993-2013) and their relationship with environmental parameters (sea ice, atmospheric climate indices, sea surface temperature, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity). Macrozooplankton were collected from the top 120 m of the water column in a mid-Peninsula study region divided into latitudinal (North, South, and Far South) and cross-shelf (coastal, shelf, slope) sub-regions. Trends for krill species included a 5-year cycle in abundance peaks (positive anomalies) for Euphausia superba, but no directional long-term trend, and an increase in Thysanoessa macrura in the North; variability in both species was strongly influenced by primary production 2-years prior. E. crystallorophias abundance was best explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and was more abundant in higher ice conditions. The salp Salpa thompsoni and thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina cycled between negative and positive anomalies in the North, but showed increasing positive anomalies in the South over time. Variation in salp and pteropod abundance was best explained by SAM and the MEI, respectively, and both species were more abundant in lower ice conditions. There was a long-term increase in some carnivorous gelatinous zooplankton (polychaete worm Tomopteris spp.) and amphipods. Abundance of Pseudosagitta spp. chaetognaths was closely related to SAM, with higher abundance tied to lower ice conditions. Long-term changes and sub-decadal cycles of WAP macrozooplankton community composition may affect energy transfer to higher trophic levels, and alter biogeochemical cycling in this seasonally productive and sensitive polar ecosystem.

Long-term Outcomes Following Artificial Urinary Sphincter Placement: An Analysis of 1082 Cases at Mayo Clinic.

PubMed

Linder, Brian J; Rivera, Marcelino E; Ziegelmann, Matthew J; Elliott, Daniel S

2015-09-01

To evaluate long-term device outcomes following primary artificial urinary sphincter (AUS) implantation. We identified 1802 male patients with stress urinary incontinence that underwent AUS placement from 1983 to 2011. Of these, 1082 (60%) were involving primary implantations and comprise the study cohort. Multiple clinical and surgical variables were evaluated for potential association with treatment failure, defined as any secondary surgery. Patient follow-up was obtained through office examination, operative report, and written or telephone correspondence. Patients undergoing AUS implantation had a median age of 71 years (interquartile range 66-76) and median follow-up of 4.1 years (interquartile range 0.8-7.7). Overall, 338 of 1082 patients (31.2%) underwent secondary surgery, including 89 for device infection and/or erosion, 131 for device malfunction, 89 for urethral atrophy, and 29 for pump malposition or tubing complications. No patient-related risk factors were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary surgery on multivariable analysis. Secondary surgery-free survival was 90% at 1 year, 74% at 5 years, 57% at 10 years, and 41% at 15 years. Primary AUS implantation is associated with acceptable long-term outcomes. Recognition of long-term success is important for preoperative patient counseling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-Frequency Temporal Variability in Mira and Semiregular Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, M.; Waagen, E. O.

2012-01-01

We investigate low-frequency variability in a large sample of Mira and semiregular variables with long-term visual light curves from the AAVSO International Database. Our aim is to determine whether we can detect and measure long-timescale variable phenomena in these stars, for example photometric variations that might be associated with supergranular convection. We analyzed the long-term light curves of 522 variable stars of the Mira and SRa, b, c, and d classes. We calculated their low-frequency time-series spectra to characterize rednoise with the power density spectrum index, and then correlate this index with other observable characteristics such as spectral type and primary pulsation period. In our initial analysis of the sample, we see that the semiregular variables have a much broader range of spectral index than the Mira types, with the SRb subtype having the broadest range. Among Mira variables we see that the M- and S-type Miras have similarly wide ranges of index, while the C-types have the narrowest with generally shallower slopes. There is also a trend of steeper slope with larger amplitude, but at a given amplitude, a wide range of slopes are seen. The ultimate goal of the project is to identify stars with strong intrinsic red noise components as possible targets for resolved surface imaging with interferometry.

Two-Year Follow-Up of a Sexual Health Promotion Program for Spanish Adolescents.

PubMed

Espada, Jose P; Escribano, Silvia; Morales, Alexandra; Orgilés, Mireia

2017-12-01

The aim is to evaluate the effects of the Competencias para adolescentes con una sexualidad saludable (COMPAS) program and compare them with an evidence-based program ( ¡Cuídate!) and a control group (CG). Eighteen public high schools were randomly assigned to one of the three experimental conditions. Initially, 1,563 Spanish adolescents between 14 and 16 years of age participated, and 24 months after their implementation, 635 of them completed a survey. Self-report measures collected data on sexual behavior, knowledge, attitudes, intention, sexual risk perception, and perceived norm. Compared to the CG, COMPAS increased the level of knowledge about sexually transmitted infections and improved the attitudes toward people living with human immunodeficiency virus at the 2-year follow-up. Neither intervention had a long-term impact on behavioral variables. Results suggest that COMPAS has a comparable impact to the other intervention on the variables predicting consistent condom use. Reinforcing the messages and skills that have the greatest impact on condom use and adding booster sessions following program completion as strategies to maintain long-term effects are necessary.

What has influenced patient health-care expenditures in Japan?: variables of age, death, length of stay, and medical care.

PubMed

Sato, Emi; Fushimi, Kiyohide

2009-07-01

This study considers variables related to health-care expenditures associated with aging and long-term hospitalization in Japan. We focused on daily per capita inpatient health-care expenditures, and examined the impact of inpatient characteristics such as sex, age, survived or deceased, length of stay, adult disease, and type of medical care received during the duration of each stay. We analyzed data from the Survey of Medical-Care Activities in Public Health Insurance by multinomial logistic regression analyses. Age of patient had little impact on per capita inpatient health-care expenditures per day. As regards length of stay, inpatient stays of 8-14 days had a little impact on health-care expenditures. This study suggested that these results might be due to the kind of medical care received. More research is needed to determine the appropriate medical services to reduce long-term hospitalization. In the last month of care for patients who died, medical examinations had a great influence on health-care expenditures. This study showed that increasing medical examinations in the end-of-life care needs further investigation.

Predictors of outcome at 2 years of age after early intrauterine growth restriction.

PubMed

Torrance, H L; Bloemen, M C T; Mulder, E J H; Nikkels, P G J; Derks, J B; de Vries, L S; Visser, G H A

2010-08-01

To examine the relative importance of antenatal and perinatal variables on short- and long-term outcome of preterm growth restricted fetuses with umbilical artery (UA) Doppler abnormalities. This was a cohort study of 180 neonates with birth weight < 10(th) percentile, gestational age at delivery < 34 weeks and abnormal Doppler ultrasound examination of the UA. Various antenatal and perinatal variables were studied in relation to short- and long-term outcome. Neonatal and overall mortality (up to 2 years of age) were predicted by low gestational age at delivery. Neonatal mortality was additionally predicted by absent or reversed UA end-diastolic flow, while the presence of severe neonatal complications and placental villitis were additional predictors of both infant (between 28 days and 1 year of postnatal life) and overall mortality. Placental villitis was found to be the only predictor of necrotizing enterocolitis. Low gestational age at delivery, male sex, abnormal cardiotocography, absent or reversed UA end-diastolic flow and the HELLP syndrome predicted respiratory distress syndrome. Abnormal neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years was predicted by low birth weight (< 2.3(rd) percentile), fetal acidosis (UA pH < 7.00), and placental villitis. Less advanced gestation at delivery remains an important predictor of short-term outcome in growth-restricted fetuses. In addition, the presence of placental villitis may aid neonatologists in the early identification of infants at increased risk of necrotizing enterocolitis, death and abnormal neurodevelopment at 2 years of age. Abnormal neurodevelopment was related to low weight and acidosis at birth, indicating that the severity of malnutrition and fetal acidosis affect long-term outcome.

The effect of hospital mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees: a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data.

PubMed

Kjekshus, Lars Erik; Bernstrøm, Vilde Hoff; Dahl, Espen; Lorentzen, Thomas

2014-02-03

Hospitals are merging to become more cost-effective. Mergers are often complex and difficult processes with variable outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees. Long-term sickness absence was analyzed among hospital employees (N = 107 209) in 57 hospitals involved in 23 mergers in Norway between 2000 and 2009. Variation in long-term sickness absence was explained through a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data with years-since-merger as the independent variable. We found a significant but modest effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence in the year of the merger, and in years 2, 3 and 4; analyzed by gender there was a significant effect for women, also for these years, but only in year 4 for men. However, men are less represented among the hospital workforce; this could explain the lack of significance. Mergers has a significant effect on employee health that should be taken into consideration when deciding to merge hospitals. This study illustrates the importance of analyzing the effects of mergers over several years and the need for more detailed analyses of merger processes and of the changes that may occur as a result of such mergers.

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses

PubMed Central

Adler, Peter B.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M.

2006-01-01

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

Psychosocial and organizational risk factors for doctor-certified sick leave: a prospective study of female health and social workers in Norway.

PubMed

Aagestad, Cecilie; Tyssen, Reidar; Johannessen, Håkon A; Gravseth, Hans Magne; Tynes, Tore; Sterud, Tom

2014-09-29

Doctor-certified sick leave differs substantially across sectors, and among health and social workers, in particular, there is an increased risk. Previous studies have shown that work environmental factors contribute to sick leave. Hence, the identification of specific organizational and psychosocial risk factors for long- term sick leave, taking into account potential confounding related to mechanical risk factors such as lifting and awkward body postures, will be of importance in the work of prevention. A randomly drawn population sample of Norwegian residents was interviewed about working conditions in 2009 (n = 12,255; response rate 60.9%). Female health and social care workers (n = 925) were followed in a national registry for subsequent sickness absence during 2010. The outcome of interest was doctor-certified sick leave of 21 days or more (long-term sick leave). Eleven work-related psychosocial and organizational factors were evaluated. In total, 186 persons (20.1%) were classified with subsequent long-term sick leave. After thoroughly adjusting for competing explanatory variables, the most consistent predictors for long-term sick leave were violence and threats of violence (OR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.14-2.45). The estimated population attributable risk for violence and threats of violence was 13%. The present study among female health and social care workers revealed a substantial relationship between self-reported violence and threats of violence and subsequent long- term sick leave.

Lessons learned from long-term ecosystem research and monitoring in alpine and subalpine basins of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.

2001-01-01

Long-term ecosystem research and monitoring was begun in the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park in 1983, after extensive survey work to identify the best location. Then, as now, our scientific objectives were to understand natural biogeochemical cycles and variability, so that we could differentiate ecosystem changes from human-caused disturbances, such as atmospheric deposition of pollutants and climate change. We have learned many lessons, often through our mistakes, that are worth passing on. Clear scientific objectives, even for long-term monitoring, are essential. Standardized methods, including rigorous quality assurance procedures should be adhered to from the beginning of the program. All data, even those collected routinely for background records, should be scrutinized and summarized at least once a year. Freely share basic information such as weather, hydrologic, chemical, and descriptive records with other researchers who can build upon your efforts. Use many tools when asking complex ecological questions, in order to minimize bias toward specific results. Publish frequently; long-term studies do not imply there are no interim conclusions or interesting findings. Interpret findings frequently to policy makers and citizens; increased understanding of the environment and human-caused changes may improve natural resource management, and build support for ecological research. And finally, be persistent. Long-term ecological research can be frustrating and difficult to maintain, yet is often the best way to observe and understand ecological change on a meaningful time scale.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazio, Giovanni G.

2000-01-01

This is the final performance report for our grant 'Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar.' In the first year of this grant, we received the 50,000-second ROSAT (German acronym for X-ray satellite) High Resolution Images (HRI) observation of the Crab Nebula pulsar. We used the data to create a 65-ms-resolution pulse profile and compared it to a similar pulse profile obtained in 1991. No statistically significant differences were found. These results were presented at the January 1998 meeting of the American Astronomical Society. Since then, we have performed more sensitive analyses to search for potential changes in the pulse profile shape between the two data sets. Again, no significant variability was found. In order to augment this long (six-year) baseline data set, we have analyzed archival observations of the Crab Nebula pulsar with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). While these observations have shorter time baselines than the ROSAT data set, their higher signal-to-noise offers similar sensitivity to long-term variability. Again, no significant variations have been found, confirming our ROSAT results. This work was done in collaboration with Prof. Stephen Eikenberry, Cornell University. These analyses will be included in Cornell University graduate student Dae-Sik Moon's doctoral thesis.

Long-term forest management and climate effects on streamflow

Treesearch

Shelby G. Laird; C.R. Ford; S.H. Laseter; J.M. Vose

2011-01-01

Long-term watershed studies are a powerful tool for examining interactions among management activities, streamflow, and climatic variability. Understanding these interactions is critical for exploring the potential of forest management to adapt to or mitigate against the effects of climate change. The Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, located in North Carolina, USA, is a...

Analyzing the Effects of Horizontal Resolution on Long-Term Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. To this end, WRF-CMAQ simulations over the co...

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

No association between static and dynamic postural control and ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players: a prospective study of 838 players.

PubMed

Steffen, Kathrin; Nilstad, Agnethe; Krosshaug, Tron; Pasanen, Kati; Killingmo, Aleksander; Bahr, Roald

2017-02-01

Research on balance measures as potential risk factors for ACL injury is limited. To assess whether postural control was associated with an increased risk for ACL injuries in female elite handball and football players. Premier league players were tested in the preseason and followed prospectively for ACL injury risk from 2007 through 2015. At baseline, we recorded player demographics, playing experience, ACL and ankle injury history. We measured centre of pressure velocity in single-leg stabilisation tests and reach distances in the Star Excursion Balance Test. To examine the stability of postural control measures over time, we examined their short-term and long-term reproducibility. We generated logistic regression models, 1 for each of the proposed risk factors. A total of 55 (6.6%) out of 838 players (age 21±4 years; height 170±6 cm; body mass 66±8 kg) sustained a non-contact ACL injury after baseline testing (1.8±1.8 years). When comparing normalised balance measures between injured and uninjured players in univariate analyses, none of the variables were statistically associated with ACL injury risk. Short-term and long-term reproducibility of the selected variables was poor. Players with a previous ACL injury had a 3-fold higher risk of sustaining a new ACL injury compared with previously uninjured players (OR 2.9, CI 1.4 to 5.7). None of postural control measures examined were associated with increased ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players. Hence, as measured in the current investigation, the variables included cannot be used to predict ACL injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Long-term solar activity explored with wavelet methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.; Liszka, L.; Lundin, R.; Muscheler, R.

2006-03-01

Long-term solar activity has been studied with a set of wavelet methods. The following indicators of long-term solar activity were used; the group sunspot number, the sunspot number, and the 14C production rate. Scalograms showed the very long-term scales of 2300 years (Hallstat cycle), 900-1000 years, 400-500 years, and 200 years (de Vries cycle). Scalograms of a newly-constructed 14C production rate showed interesting solar modulation during the Maunder minimum. Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) revealed the modulation in detail, as well as peaks of solar activity not seen in the sunspot number. In both the group sunspot number scalogram and the 14C production rate scalogram, a process appeared, starting or ending in late 1700. This process has not been discussed before. Its solar origin is unclear.

The group sunspot number ampligram and the sunspot number ampligram showed the Maunder and the Dalton minima, and the period of high solar activity, which already started about 1900 and then decreased again after mid 1990. The decrease starts earlier for weaker components. Also, weak semiperiodic activity was found.

Time Scale Spectra (TSS) showed both deterministic and stochastic processes behind the variability of the long-term solar activity. TSS of the 14C production rate, group sunspot number and Mt. Wilson sunspot index and plage index were compared in an attempt to interpret the features and processes behind the long-term variability.

Slow recovery in desert perennial vegetation following prolonged human disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.

2004-01-01

The study shows an exceptionally long-term recovery of perennial vegetation from prolonged heavy grazing and other human impacts. Since protection in 1906, overall species richness and habitat heterogeneity at the study site continued to increase until the 1960s when diversity, density and cover stabilized. During the same period, overall plant density and cover also increased. Species turnover increased gradually with time but no significant relation between any of the three community variables and precipitation or Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was detected. The increases in plant species richness, density, and cover of the perennial vegetation were mostly due to the increase of herbaceous species, especially palatable species. The lack of clear relationship between environment (e.g., precipitation) and community variables suggests that site history and plant life history must be taken into account in examining the nature of vegetation recovery process after disturbances.

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

PubMed Central

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-01-01

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system. PMID:25733898

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

PubMed

Kelley, Colin P; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-03-17

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

2015-03-01

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Koster, Randal D.; Bacmeister, Julio T.

2003-01-01

This study examines the causes of long term droughts in the United States Great Plains (USGP). The focus is on the relative roles of slowly varying SSTs and interactions with soil moisture. The results from ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that the SSTs account for about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance in the USGP. Results from idealized experiments with climatological SST suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a five-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the deep soil is forced by white noise and damped with a time scale of about 2 years. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

High storm surge events in Venice and the 11-yr solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriopedro, David; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Lionello, Piero; Pino, Cosimo

2010-05-01

In the last years the Venice lagoon has received much attention as a case of coastal vulnerability, mainly because of relative sea level rise and increase frequency of storm surge events, the so-called "aqua alta", which, particularly during autumn, cause the flooding of the Venice historical city center. Long-term fluctuations in solar activity and large-scale climate patterns have been suggested as feasible factors of flooding variability. This study explores the long-term frequency variability of High Surge Events (HSE) in Venice for the period 1948-2008 and its modulation by the 11-yr solar cycle. A significant decadal variability in the frequency of HSE is found in good correspondence with the 11-yr cycle, solar maxima being associated to a significant increase of the October-November-December HSE frequency. A Storm Surge Pattern (SSP), i.e. the seasonal 1000 hPa height pattern associated to increased frequency of HSE, is identified and found similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (EOF1). However, further analyses indicate that the increase of HSE in solar maxima cannot be simply explained by a higher recurrence of positive EOF1 phases during high solar years. It rather seems that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Thus, under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSE is enhanced by the EOF1, namely a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated to any EOF during low solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSE by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Land Use and Climate Alter Carbon Dynamics in Watersheds of Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaushal, S.; Duan, S.; Grese, M.; Pennino, M. J.; Belt, K. T.; Findlay, S.; Groffman, P. M.; Mayer, P. M.; Murthy, S.; Blomquist, J.

2011-12-01

There have been long-term changes in the quantity of organic carbon in streams and rivers globally. Shifts in the quality of organic carbon due to environmental changes may also impact downstream ecosystem metabolism and fate and transport of contaminants. We investigated long-term impacts of land use and hydrologic variability on organic carbon transport in watersheds of the Baltimore Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site and large rivers of the Chesapeake Bay. In small and medium-sized watersheds of the Baltimore LTER site, urban land use increased organic carbon concentrations in streams several-fold compared to forest and agricultural watersheds. Enzymatic activities of stream microbes were significantly altered across watershed land use during a record wet year. During the wet year, short-term bioassays showed that bioavailable dissolved organic carbon varied seasonally, but comprised a substantial proportion of the dissolved organic carbon pool. Similarly, measurements of biochemical oxygen demand across hydrologic variability suggest that reactive organic carbon export from small and medium-sized urban watersheds during storms can be substantial. At a larger regional scale, major tributaries such as the Potomac, Susquehanna, Patuxent, and Choptank rivers also showed similar variability as smaller watersheds in quantity and quality of organic carbon based on land use and climate. There were distinct isotopic values of d13C of particulate organic matter and fluorescence excitation emission matrices for rivers influenced by different land uses. Stable isotopic values of d13C of particulate organic matter and fluorescence excitation emission matrices showed marked seasonal changes in organic matter quality during spring floods in the Potomac River at Washington D.C. Across watershed size, there appeared to be differences in seasonal cycles of organic carbon quality and this may have been based on the degree of hydrologic connectivity between watersheds and streams and rivers. Overall, our results suggest that land use and climate can alter quantity and quality of carbon delivered from coastal watersheds and this may have impacts on downstream estuarine ecosystem processes.

Dynamical Landscape of Heart Rhythm in Long-Term Heart Transplant Recipients: A Way to Discern Erratic Rhythms

PubMed Central

Wdowczyk, Joanna; Makowiec, Danuta; Gruchała, Marcin; Wejer, Dorota; Struzik, Zbigniew R.

2018-01-01

It is commonly believed that higher values of heart rate variability (HRV) indices account for better organization of the network of feedback reflexes driving an organism's response to actual bodily needs. In order to evaluate this organization in heart transplant (HTX) recipients, 58 nocturnal Holter signals of 14 HTX patients were analyzed. Their dynamical properties were evaluated by short-term HRV indices and measures grounded on entropy. Estimates grouped according to the patients' clinical progress: free of complications versus with complications, and arranged in order of the length of time since the HTX, lead us to the conclusion that higher HRV is associated with a worse outcome for HTX patients. Moreover, short-term HRV indices that are constant, rather than increasing over time, serve well in the prognosis of the future state of a HTX patient. These findings suggest that increases observed in HRV indices are related to erratic rhythms resulting from remodeling of the cardiac tissue (including heterogeneous innervation) in long-term HTX patients. Therefore, we hypothesize that dynamical landscape markers (entropy and fragmentation measures together with the short-term HRV indices) can serve as a tool in the exploration of the genesis of (non-respiratory sinus) arrhythmia. PMID:29686620

The impact of forced displacement in World War II on mental health disorders and health-related quality of life in late life - a German population-based study.

PubMed

Freitag, Simone; Braehler, Elmar; Schmidt, Silke; Glaesmer, Heide

2013-02-01

Long-term effects of World War II experiences affect psychological and physical health in aged adults. Forced displacement as a traumatic event is associated with increased psychological burden even after several decades. This study investigates the contribution of forced displacement as a predictor for mental health disorders and adds the aspect of health-related quality of life (QoL). A sample of 1,659 German older adults aged 60-85 years was drawn from a representative survey. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), somatoform symptoms, depressive syndromes, and health-related QoL were assessed as outcome variables. Chi-square and t-test statistics examined differences between displaced and non-displaced people. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the impact of forced displacement on mental health disorders and QoL. Displaced people reported higher levels of PTSD, depressive and somatoform symptoms, and lower levels of health-related QoL. Displacement significantly predicted PTSD and somatoform symptoms in late life, but not depressive disorders. Health-related QoL was predicted by forced displacement and socio-demographic variables. Forced displacement is associated with an elevated risk for PTSD and somatoform symptoms and lowered health-related QoL in aged adults. Its unique impact declines after including socio-demographic variables. Long-term consequences of forced displacement need further investigations and should include positive aspects in terms of resilience and protective coping strategies.

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Long-term variability in bright hard X-ray sources: 5+ years of BATSE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, C. R.; Harmon, B. A.; McCollough, M. L.; Paciesas, W. S.; Sahi, M.; Scott, D. M.; Wilson, C. A.; Zhang, S. N.; Deal, K. J.

1997-01-01

The operation of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO)/burst and transient source experiment (BATSE) continues to provide data for inclusion into a data base for the analysis of long term variability in bright, hard X-ray sources. The all-sky capability of BATSE provides up to 30 flux measurements/day for each source. The long baseline and the various rising and setting occultation flux measurements allow searches for periodic and quasi-periodic signals with periods of between several hours to hundreds of days to be conducted. The preliminary results from an analysis of the hard X-ray variability in 24 of the brightest BATSE sources are presented. Power density spectra are computed for each source and profiles are presented of the hard X-ray orbital modulations in some X-ray binaries, together with amplitude modulations and variations in outburst durations and intensities in recurrent X-ray transients.

Growth-Mortality Relationships in Piñon Pine (Pinus edulis) during Severe Droughts of the Past Century: Shifting Processes in Space and Time

PubMed Central

Macalady, Alison K.; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees’ ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15–30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases in the attack rate of both chronically stressed and more vigorous trees by bark beetles. PMID:24786646

Remote sensing evaluation of CLM4 GPP for the period 2000 to 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E; Shi, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

The ability of a process-based ecosystem model like Version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) to provide accurate estimates of CO2 flux is a top priority for researchers, modelers and policy makers. Remote sensing can provide long-term and large scale products suitable for ecosystem model evaluation. Global estimations of gross primary production (GPP) at the 1 km spatial resolution from years 2000 to 2009 from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor offer a unique opportunity for evaluating the temporal and spatial patterns of global GPP and its relationship with climate for CLM4. We compare monthly GPP simulated bymore » CLM4 at half-degree resolution with satellite estimates of GPP from the MODIS GPP (MOD17) dataset for the 10-yr period, January 2000 December 2009. The assessment is presented in terms of long-term mean carbon assimilation, seasonal mean distributions, amplitude and phase of the annual cycle, and intra-annual and inter-annual GPP variability and their responses to climate variables. For the long-term annual and seasonal means, major GPP patterns are clearly demonstrated by both products. Compared to the MODIS product, CLM4 overestimates the magnitude of GPP for tropical evergreen forests. CLM4 has longer carbon uptake period than MODIS for most plant functional types (PFTs) with an earlier onset of GPP in spring and later decline of GPP in autumn. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the monthly GPP changes indicates that on the intra-annual scale, both CLM4 and MODIS display similar spatial representations and temporal patterns for most terrestrial ecosystems except in northeast Russia and the very dry region in central Australia. For 2000-2009, CLM4 simulates increases in annual averaged GPP over both hemispheres, however estimates from MODIS suggest a reduction in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.2173 PgC/year) balancing the significant increase over the Northern Hemisphere (0.2157 PgC/year).« less

Growth-mortality relationships in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) during severe droughts of the past century: shifting processes in space and time.

PubMed

Macalady, Alison K; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees' ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15-30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼ 70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases in the attack rate of both chronically stressed and more vigorous trees by bark beetles.

The Phenology of Ticks and the Effects of Long-Term Prescribed Burning on Tick Population Dynamics in Southwestern Georgia and Northwestern Florida

PubMed Central

Gleim, Elizabeth R.; Conner, L. Mike; Berghaus, Roy D.; Levin, Michael L.; Zemtsova, Galina E.; Yabsley, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that regular prescribed burning is an effective tool for reducing tick populations and ultimately may reduce risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25375797

Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

2017-12-01

Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate that the regional synoptic processes are dominant for wind variability.

The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

PubMed

Gleim, Elizabeth R; Conner, L Mike; Berghaus, Roy D; Levin, Michael L; Zemtsova, Galina E; Yabsley, Michael J

2014-01-01

Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that regular prescribed burning is an effective tool for reducing tick populations and ultimately may reduce risk of tick-borne disease.

Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappas, C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not captured by simulation results with process-based models. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling, combining current process understanding with stochastic methods, and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

The stellar wind as a key to the understanding of the spectral activity of IN Com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlova, O. V.; Alekseev, I. Yu.

2014-06-01

We present long-term spectral observations ( R = 20000) of IN Com in the region of the Hα, Hβ, and He I 5876 lines. One distinguishing characteristic of the stellar spectrum is the presence in the Hα line of an extended two-component emission with limits up to ±400 km/s. Emission parameters show the rotation modulation with the stellar rotation period and a significant variability on the long-term scale. Similar emissions are also observed in the Hβ and He I 5876 lines. Our results allow us to conclude that observational emission profiles are formed in an optically thin hot gas. This is a result of the presence of a circumstellar gas disk around IN Com. Its size does not exceed several stellar radii. The material for the disk is supported by the stellar wind from IN Com. The detected variability of Hα-emission parameters shows a clear connection with the photopolarimetric activity of the star. This fact allows us to associate the long-term spectral variability with cycles of stellar activity of IN Com.

Long-term changes in the South China Sea summer monsoon revealed by station observations of the Xisha Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jianyin; Yang, Song; Li, Cunhui; Li, Xia

2007-05-01

The authors depict the long-term changes in the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon using observational data of the Xisha Islands. The SCS monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system, and its long-term changes have seldom been explored because of the unavailability of reliable data. The daily Xisha station observations provide an important source of information for understanding the changes in the monsoon. The intensity of the SCS summer monsoon measured by kinetic energy decreased significantly from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004. This change in monsoon was mainly caused by the weakening of the meridional component of lower tropospheric winds, and the weakening in the mean flow was signaled by decreased frequency of strong southerlies (6 m s-1 and above) of the daily winds. The weakening of the monsoon was also associated with increases in sea surface temperature and surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures over SCS, which occurred more frequently when daily surface temperature reaches 29°C and higher. The long-term warming of the lower troposphere was accompanied by cooling at the upper troposphere, destabilizing the local atmosphere. However, from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004, the long-term change in Xisha precipitation tended to decrease; furthermore, in fact, the station precipitation became less variable. Thus besides local air-sea interaction, large-scale atmospheric forcing also plays an important role in causing the long-term change of the Xisha precipitation. Indeed, the warming of Xisha was linked to large-scale warming in the tropics including SCS and was associated with smaller thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the surrounding oceans, which weakened monsoon circulation.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing.

PubMed

Sullivan, Martin J P; Thomsen, Meredith A; Suttle, K B

2016-04-01

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Employee experience of workplace supervisor contact and support during long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Buys, Nicholas J; Selander, John; Sun, Jing

2017-12-07

Workplace support is an important factor in promoting successful return to work. The purpose of this article is to examine relationships between supervisor contact, perceived workplace support and demographic variables among employees on long-term sickness absence. Data were collected from 204 public employees at a municipality in Sweden who had been on long term sickness absence (60 days or more) using a 23 question survey instrument that collected information on demographic variables, supervisor contact and perceived workplace support. Most injured employees (97%) reported having contact with their supervisors during their sickness absence, with a majority (56%) reporting high levels of support, including early (58.6%) and multiple (70.7%) contacts. Most were pleased with amount of contact (68.9%) and the majority had discussed workplace accommodations (68.1%). Employees who self-initiated contact, felt the amount of contact was appropriate, had a personal meeting with their supervisors and discussed workplace adjustments reported experiencing higher levels of support from supervisors. Employees on long-term sickness absence appreciate contact from their supervisors and this is associated with perceived workplace support. However, the amount and employee experience of this contact is important. It needs to be perceived by employees as supportive, which includes a focus on strategies (e.g., work adjustment) to facilitate a return to work. Supervisor training is required in this area to support the return to work process. Implications for Rehabilitation Contact and support from workplace supervisors is important to workers on long-term sickness absence. Employees appreciate frequent contact from supervisors during long-terms sickness absence. Employees appreciate a personal meeting with supervisors and the opportunity to discuss issues related to return to work such as work adjustment. Employers should provide training to supervisors on how to communicate and assist employees on long-term sickness absence.

Posttraumatic growth in people with traumatic long-term spinal cord injury: predictive role of basic hope and coping.

PubMed

Byra, S

2016-06-01

Participants with spinal cord injury (SCI) sustained at least 15 years before the study completed questionnaires measuring posttraumatic growth (PTG), basic hope and coping strategies. To determine contribution of basic hope and coping strategies to accounting for PTG variability in participants with traumatic long-term SCI. Polish rehabilitation centres, foundations and associations implementing social inclusion and professional activation programmes. Participants were enrolled based on their medical history by trained rehabilitation specialists and psychologists. The set of questionnaires included the following: The Post-traumatic Growth Inventory; The Coping Orientations to Problems Experienced (COPE); and Basic Hope Inventory. A study of 169 individuals with paraplegia in the range of PTG showed the highest degree of positive changes in appreciation of life (AL) and the lowest in self-perception. Regression analysis showed that coping strategies such as religion (REL), focus on the problem, humour, alcohol/drug use ideation and basic hope jointly account for 60% of variance of PTG. The highest contribution to accounting for this variability had REL. Also, it was found that coping strategies and basic hope allow to predict variance of individual growth aspects. Age at trauma exposure positively correlated with changes in AL and spiritual change. No significant relationship between growth and age of participants was confirmed. PTG occurring in people with long-term traumatic SCI is primarily manifested in increased AL. Specific coping strategies and basic hope have a significant role in fostering positive changes.

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, J.B.

2011-01-01

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Climate Variability Impacts on Watershed Nutrient Delivery and Reservoir Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Prochnow, S. J.; Zygo, L. M.; Byars, B. W.

2005-05-01

Reservoirs in agricultural dominated watersheds tend to exhibit pulse-system behavior especially if located in climates dominated by summer convective precipitation inputs. Concentration and bulk mass of nutrient and sediment inputs into reservoir systems vary in terms of timing and magnitude of delivery from watershed sources to reservoirs under these climate conditions. Reservoir management often focuses on long-term average inputs without considering short and long-term impacts of variation in loading. In this study we modeled a watershed-reservoir system to assess how climate variability affects reservoir primary production through shifts in external loading and internal recycling of limiting nutrients. The Bosque watershed encompasses 423,824 ha in central Texas which delivers water to Lake Waco, a 2900 ha reservoir that is the primary water source for the city of Waco and surrounding areas. Utilizing the Soil Water Assessment Tool for the watershed and river simulations and the CE-Qual-2e model for the reservoir, hydrologic and nutrient dynamics were simulated for a 10 year period encompassing two ENSO cycles. The models were calibrated based on point measurement of water quality attributes for a two year time period. Results indicated that watershed delivery of nutrients was affected by the presence and density of small flood-control structure in the watershed. However, considerable nitrogen and phosphorus loadings were derived from soils in the upper watershed which have had long-term waste-application from concentrated animal feeding operations. During El Niño years, nutrient and sediment loads increased by 3 times above non-El Niño years. The simulated response within the reservoir to these nutrient and sediment loads had both direct and indirect. Productivity evaluated from chlorophyll a and algal biomass increased under El Niño conditions, however species composition shifts were found with an increase in cyanobacteria dominance. In non-El Niño years, species composition was more evenly distributed. At the longer time scale, El Niño events with accompanying increase in nutrient loads were followed by years in which productivity declined below levels predicted solely by nutrient ratios. This was due to subtle shifts in organic matter decomposition where productive years are followed by increases in refractory material which sequesters nutrients and reduces internal loading.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association.

PubMed

Zhan, Jiasui; Ericson, Lars; Burdon, Jeremy J

2018-02-27

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April-November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host-pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far-reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wind, Circulation, and Topographic Effects on Alongshore Phytoplankton Variability in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, Jerome; Edwards, Christopher A.; Moore, Andrew M.

2018-04-01

A physical-biogeochemical model is used to produce a retrospective analysis at 3-km resolution of alongshore phytoplankton variability in the California Current during 1988-2010. The simulation benefits from downscaling a regional circulation reanalysis, which provides improved physical ocean state estimates in the high-resolution domain. The emerging pattern is one of local upwelling intensification in response to increased alongshore wind stress in the lee of capes, modulated by alongshore meanders in the geostrophic circulation. While stronger upwelling occurs near most major topographic features, substantial increases in phytoplankton biomass only ensue where local circulation patterns are conducive to on-shelf retention of upwelled nutrients. Locations of peak nutrient delivery and chlorophyll accumulation also exhibit interannual variability and trends noticeably larger than the surrounding shelf regions, thereby suggesting that long-term planktonic ecosystem response in the California Current exhibits a significant local scale (O(100 km)) alongshore component.

Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the swedish integrated monitoring sites with the integrated catchments model for carbon, INCA-C.

PubMed

Futter, M N; Löfgren, S; Köhler, S J; Lundin, L; Moldan, F; Bringmark, L

2011-12-01

Surface water concentrations of dissolved organic carbon ([DOC]) are changing throughout the northern hemisphere due to changes in climate, land use and acid deposition. However, the relative importance of these drivers is unclear. Here, we use the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon (INCA-C) to simulate long-term (1996-2008) streamwater [DOC] at the four Swedish integrated monitoring (IM) sites. These are unmanaged headwater catchments with old-growth forests and no major changes in land use. Daily, seasonal and long-term variations in streamwater [DOC] driven by runoff, seasonal temperature and atmospheric sulfate (SO₄(2-)) deposition were observed at all sites. Using INCA-C, it was possible to reproduce observed patterns of variability in streamwater [DOC] at the four IM sites. Runoff was found to be the main short-term control on [DOC]. Seasonal patterns in [DOC] were controlled primarily by soil temperature. Measured SO₄(2-) deposition explained some of the long-term [DOC] variability at all sites.

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Analysis of spatiotemporal variability of C-factor derived from remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechanec, Vilém; Mráz, Alexander; Benc, Antonín; Cudlín, Pavel

2018-01-01

Soil erosion is an important phenomenon that contributes to the degradation of agricultural land. Even though it is a natural process, human activities can significantly increase its impact on land degradation and present serious limitation on sustainable agricultural land use. Nowadays, the risk of soil erosion is assessed either qualitatively by expert assessment or quantitatively using model-based approach. One of the primary factors affecting the soil erosion assessment is a cover-management factor, C-factor. In the Czech Republic, several models are used to assess the C-factor on a long-term basis based on data collected using traditional tabular methods. This paper presents work to investigate the estimation of both long-term and short-term cover-management factors using remote sensing data. The results demonstrate a successful development of C-factor maps for each month of 2014, growing season average, and annual average for the Czech Republic. C-factor values calculated from remote sensing data confirmed expected trend in their temporal variability for selected crops. The results presented in this paper can be used for enhancing existing methods for estimating C-factor, planning future agricultural activities, and designing technical remediations and improvement activities of land use in the Czech Republic, which are also financially supported by the European Union funds.

Changes in Heart Rate Variability of Depressed Patients after Electroconvulsive Therapy

PubMed Central

Royster, Erica B.; Trimble, Lisa M.; Cotsonis, George; Schmotzer, Brian; Manatunga, Amita; Rushing, Natasha N.; Pagnoni, Giuseppe; Auyeung, S. Freda; Brown, Angelo R.; Schoenbeck, Joel; Murthy, Smitha; McDonald, William M.; Musselman, Dominique L.

2012-01-01

Objective. As few, small studies have examined the impact of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) upon the heart rate variability of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), we sought to confirm whether ECT-associated improvement in depressive symptoms would be associated with increases in HRV linear and nonlinear parameters. Methods. After providing consent, depressed study participants (n = 21) completed the Beck Depression Index (BDI), and 15-minute Holter monitor recordings, prior to their 1st and 6th ECT treatments. Holter recordings were analyzed for certain HRV indices: root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), low-frequency component (LF)/high-frequency component (HF) and short-(SD1) versus long-term (SD2) HRV ratios. Results. There were no significant differences in the HRV indices of RMSDD, LF/HF, and SD1/SD2 between the patients who responded, and those who did not, to ECT. Conclusion. In the short term, there appear to be no significant improvement in HRV in ECT-treated patients whose depressive symptoms respond versus those who do not. Future studies will reveal whether diminished depressive symptoms with ECT are reliably associated with improved sympathetic/parasympathetic balance over the long-term, and whether acute changes in sympathetic/parasympathetic balance predict improved mental- and cardiac-related outcomes. PMID:22966422

Are adolescent girls with a physical disability at increased risk for sexual violence?

PubMed

Alriksson-Schmidt, Ann I; Armour, Brian S; Thibadeau, Judy K

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether US female adolescents who self-reported having a physical disability or long-term health problem were more likely to report having been physically forced to have sexual intercourse than US female adolescents without a physical disability or long-term health problem. Using data from the 2005 U.S. National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), we employed logistic regression analyses to estimate the association between physical disability (and other variables) and the risk for sexual violence among US high school girls. Female high school students who reported a physical disability or long-term health problem were more likely to report having been physically forced to have sexual intercourse than those who did not (19.6% vs 9.4%; chi(2) = 14.51, p = .003). Results from our multivariate analysis reveal that this association remained significant (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.23) after adjusting for certain demographic characteristics, physical health problems, behavioral health risks, and violent conduct. Our findings suggest that adolescent girls in the United States with a physical disability or long-term health problem may be at increased risk for sexual violence. It is important that national efforts to reduce sexual violence consider how to address the unmet needs of children and adolescents with disabilities. As most adolescent girls spend the majority of their time in a school setting, it is of particular importance that school health professionals are aware of the current findings.

Long-term distribution and habitat changes of protected wildlife: giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China.

PubMed

Bai, Wenke; Connor, Thomas; Zhang, Jindong; Yang, Hongbo; Dong, Xin; Gu, Xiaodong; Zhou, Caiquan

2018-04-01

Changes in wildlife habitat across space and time, and corresponding changes in wildlife space use, are increasingly common phenomenon. It is critical to study and understand these spatio-temporal changes to accurately inform conservation strategy and manage wildlife populations. These changes can be particularly large and complex in areas that face pressure from human development and disturbance but are also under protection and/or restoration regimes. We analyzed changes in space use and habitat suitability of giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China, over three decades using kernel density, spatio-temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), and MaxEnt methods, and data from three national censuses. Between 2001 and 2012, there was a slight retraction in total range, and more area of significant space use decreases than increases. Habitat suitability varied spatially and temporally, with a 4.1% decrease in average suitability between 1987 and 2001 and a 3.5% increase in average suitability in between 2001 and 2012. Elevation and bamboo were the most important habitat predictors across the three censuses. Human and natural disturbance variables such as distance to household and the distance to landslide variable in the 4th census were also important predictors, and likely also negatively influenced important habitat variables such as bamboo and forest cover. We were able to measure changes in space utilization and habitat suitability over a large time scale, highlighting the achievements and challenges of giant panda conservation. Long-term monitoring of the changes in distribution and habitat of threatened species, and an analysis of the drivers behind these changes such as undergone here, are important to inform the management and conservation of the world's remaining wildlife populations.

Measurement of circulating cell-derived microparticles by flow cytometry: sources of variability within the assay.

PubMed

Ayers, Lisa; Kohler, Malcolm; Harrison, Paul; Sargent, Ian; Dragovic, Rebecca; Schaap, Marianne; Nieuwland, Rienk; Brooks, Susan A; Ferry, Berne

2011-04-01

Circulating cell-derived microparticles (MPs) have been implicated in several disease processes and elevated levels are found in many pathological conditions. The detection and accurate measurement of MPs, although attracting widespread interest, is hampered by a lack of standardisation. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable flow cytometric assay to measure distinct subtypes of MPs in disease and to identify any significant causes of variability in MP quantification. Circulating MPs within plasma were identified by their phenotype (platelet, endothelial, leukocyte and annexin-V positivity (AnnV+). The influence of key variables (i.e. time between venepuncture and centrifugation, washing steps, the number of centrifugation steps, freezing/long-term storage and temperature of thawing) on MP measurement were investigated. Increasing time between venepuncture and centrifugation leads to increased MP levels. Washing samples results in decreased AnnV+MPs (P=0.002) and platelet-derived MPs (PMPs) (P=0.002). Double centrifugation of MPs prior to freezing decreases numbers of AnnV+MPs (P=0.0004) and PMPs (P=0.0004). A single freeze thaw cycle of samples led to an increase in AnnV+MPs (P=0.0020) and PMPs (P=0.0039). Long-term storage of MP samples at -80° resulted in decreased MP levels. This study found that minor protocol changes significantly affected MP levels. This is one of the first studies attempting to standardise a method for obtaining and measuring circulating MPs. Standardisation will be essential for successful development of MP technologies, allowing direct comparison of results between studies and leading to a greater understanding of MPs in disease. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organisational injustice and impaired cardiovascular regulation among female employees

PubMed Central

Elovainio, M; Kivimäki, M; Puttonen, S; Lindholm, H; Pohjonen, T; Sinervo, T

2006-01-01

Objectives To examine the relation between perceived organisational justice and cardiovascular reactivity in women. Methods The participants were 57 women working in long term care homes. Heart rate variability and systolic arterial pressure variability were used as markers of autonomic function. Organisational justice was measured using the scale of Moorman. Data on other risk factors were also collected. Results Results from logistic regression models showed that the risk for increased low frequency band systolic arterial pressure variability was 3.8–5.8 times higher in employees with low justice than in employees with high justice. Low perceived justice was also related to an 80% excess risk of reduced high frequency heart rate variability compared to high perceived justice, but this association was not statistically significant. Conclusions These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that cardiac dysregulation is one stress mechanism through which a low perceived justice of decision making procedures and interpersonal treatment increases the risk of health problems in personnel. PMID:16421394

Long term variability of B supergiant winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massa, Derck L.

1995-01-01

The object of this observing proposal was to sample wind variability in B supergiants on a daily basis over a period of several days in order to determine the time scale with which density variability occurs in their winds. Three stars were selected for this project: 69 Cyg (B0 Ib), HD 164402 (B0 Ib), and HD 47240 (B1 Ib). Three grey scale representations of the Si IV lambda lambda 1400 doublet in each star are attached. In these figures, time (in days) increases upward, and the wavelength (in terms of velocity relative to the rest wavelength of the violet component of the doublet) is the abscissa. The spectra are normalized by a minimum absorption (maximum flux) template, so that all changes appear as absorptions. As a result of these observations, we can now state with some certainty that typical B supergiants develop significant wind inhomogeneities with recurrence times of a few days, and that some of these events show signs of strong temporal coherence.

The Longitudinal Relationship between the Use of Long-Term Care and Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pot, Anne Margriet; Deeg, Dorly J.H.; Twisk, Jos W.R.; Beekman, Aartjan T.F.; Zarit, Steven H.

2005-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to estimate the longitudinal relationship between transitions in the use of long-term care and older adults' depressive symptoms and to investigate whether this relationship could be explained by markers of older adults' underlying health, or other variables including demographics, personality, and partner…

Pathways to Educational Attainment and Their Effect on Early Career Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Marc A.; Bernhardt, Annette

A study identified different educational and working paths that workers take, asked which paid off for long-term wage growth and career development, and tested whether educational pathways helped explain more of the variability in wage outcomes. It compared long-term wage growth for two cohorts of young white men: the original cohort that entered…

Long-term continuous measurement of near-road air pollution in Las Vegas: Seasonal variability in traffic emissions impact on local air quality

EPA Science Inventory

Excess air pollution along roadways is an issue of public health concern and motivated a long-term measurement effort established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in Las Vegas, Nevada. Measurements of air pollutants – including black carbon (BC), carbon monoxide (CO),...

Assessment of the effects of horizontal grid resolution on long-term air quality trends using coupled WRF-CMAQ simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental Uni...

Long-term trends in height growth of jack pine in North Central Ontario

Treesearch

J.C.G. Goelz; T.E. Burk

1998-01-01

Although most investigations of long-term growth trends of trees involve description of radial growth of trees, investigation of height growth of dominant and codominant trees also warrants attention for two significant reasons -- the dependent variable is largely independent of stand density and it represents an index of stand productivity. Residuals from a height...

Long-Term Multiwavelength Studies of High-Redshift Blazar 0836+710

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, D. J.; Akyuz, A.; Donato, D.; Perkins, J. S.; Larsson, S.; Sokolovsky, K.; Fuhrmann, L.; Kurtanidze, O.

2012-01-01

Following gamma-ray flaring activity of high-redshift (z=2.218) blazar 0836+710 in 2011, we have assembled a long-term multiwavelength study of this object. Although this source is monitored regularly by radio telescopes and the Fermi Large Area Telescope, its coverage at other wavelengths is limited. The optical flux appears generally correlated with the gamma-ray flux, while little variability has been seen at X-ray energies. The gamma-ray/radio correlation is complex compared to some other blazars. As for many blazars, the largest variability is seen at gamma-ray wavelengths.

Generation capacity expansion planning in deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Deepak

With increasing demand of electric power in the context of deregulated electricity markets, a good strategic planning for the growth of the power system is critical for our tomorrow. There is a need to build new resources in the form of generation plants and transmission lines while considering the effects of these new resources on power system operations, market economics and the long-term dynamics of the economy. In deregulation, the exercise of generation planning has undergone a paradigm shift. The first stage of generation planning is now undertaken by the individual investors. These investors see investments in generation capacity as an increasing business opportunity because of the increasing market prices. Therefore, the main objective of such a planning exercise, carried out by individual investors, is typically that of long-term profit maximization. This thesis presents some modeling frameworks for generation capacity expansion planning applicable to independent investor firms in the context of power industry deregulation. These modeling frameworks include various technical and financing issues within the process of power system planning. The proposed modeling frameworks consider the long-term decision making process of investor firms, the discrete nature of generation capacity addition and incorporates transmission network modeling. Studies have been carried out to examine the impact of the optimal investment plans on transmission network loadings in the long-run by integrating the generation capacity expansion planning framework within a modified IEEE 30-bus transmission system network. The work assesses the importance of arriving at an optimal IRR at which the firm's profit maximization objective attains an extremum value. The mathematical model is further improved to incorporate binary variables while considering discrete unit sizes, and subsequently to include the detailed transmission network representation. The proposed models are novel in the sense that the planning horizon is split into plan sub-periods so as to minimize the overall risks associated with long-term plan models, particularly in the context of deregulation.

NGA-West 2 Equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David M.; Stewart, Jon P.; Seyhan, Emel; Atkinson, Gail M.

2013-01-01

We provide ground-motion prediction equations for computing medians and standard deviations of average horizontal component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. We derived equations for the primary M- and distance-dependence of the IMs after fixing the VS30-based nonlinear site term from a parallel NGA-West 2 study. We then evaluated additional effects using mixed effects residuals analysis, which revealed no trends with source depth over the M range of interest, indistinct Class 1 and 2 event IMs, and basin depth effects that increase and decrease long-period IMs for depths larger and smaller, respectively, than means from regional VS30-depth relations. Our aleatory variability model captures decreasing between-event variability with M, as well as within-event variability that increases or decreases with M depending on period, increases with distance, and decreases for soft sites.

Allergy and high trait anxiety are related to increases in heart rate variability: results of naturalistic long-term design study.

PubMed

Rajcani, J; Solarikova, P; Brezina, I

2018-01-01

A number of studies report heart rate variability (HRV) changes in allergic as well as high trait anxious people, and associations between allergic inflammation and trait anxiety. This study investigated HRV of 20 low anxious allergic, 19 healthy high trait anxious and 18 healthy low anxious, in naturalistic setting. On arranged research days, subjects performed measurements using portable ECG device and subjective self-assessment of perceived stress. Five repeated measurements data from each subject have shown increases in overall HRV, as well as HRV on respiratory frequencies in both allergy and high trait anxiety. Subject's sex was an important factor, because HRV increases in allergy were only apparent in women. Data from self-assessment show no differences in experienced stress attributable to allergy, only to trait anxiety.

Assessment of wildland fire impacts on watershed annual water yield: Analytical framework and case studies in the United States

Treesearch

Dennis W. Hallema; Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steve Norman; Erika Cohen Mack; Yongqiang Liu; Eric J. Ward; Steve McNulty

2016-01-01

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland, and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known however about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield, and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for...

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological effects, has been developed in order to a) investigate if trends are masked by meteorological variability and b) to understand which part of the observed trends is meteorology driven. By correlating short-term variation of ozone, as obtained from the EEMD, with the corresponding short-term variation of relevant meteorological parameters, we subtract the variation of ozone concentrations that is related to the meteorological effects explained by the GAM. We find that higher frequency meteorological correction reduces further the uncertainty in trend estimation by a small factor. In addition, the seasonal variability of ozone as obtained from the EEMD has been studied in more detail for possible changes in its behavior. A shortening of the seasonal cycle was observed, i.e. reduction of maximum and in-crease of minimum concentration per year, while the occurrence of maximum is shifted to earlier times during a year. In summary, we present a sophisticated and consistent approach for detecting and categorizing trends and meteorological influences on ozone concentrations in long-term measurements across Europe.

Nitrate, Nitrite, and Ammonium Variability in Drinking Water Distribution Systems.

PubMed

Schullehner, Jörg; Stayner, Leslie; Hansen, Birgitte

2017-03-09

Accurate assessments of exposure to nitrate in drinking water is a crucial part of epidemiological studies investigating long-term adverse human health effects. However, since drinking water nitrate measurements are usually collected for regulatory purposes, assumptions on (1) the intra-distribution system variability and (2) short-term (seasonal) concentration variability have to be made. We assess concentration variability in the distribution system of nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium, and seasonal variability in all Danish public waterworks from 2007 to 2016. Nitrate concentrations at the exit of the waterworks are highly correlated with nitrate concentrations within the distribution net or at the consumers' taps, while nitrite and ammonium concentrations are generally lower within the net compared with the exit of the waterworks due to nitrification. However, nitrification of nitrite and ammonium in the distribution systems only results in a relatively small increase in nitrate concentrations. No seasonal variation for nitrate, nitrite, or ammonium was observed. We conclude that nitrate measurements taken at the exit of the waterworks are suitable to calculate exposures for all consumers connected to that waterworks and that sampling frequencies in the national monitoring programme are sufficient to describe temporal variations in longitudinal studies.

Nitrate, Nitrite, and Ammonium Variability in Drinking Water Distribution Systems

PubMed Central

Schullehner, Jörg; Stayner, Leslie; Hansen, Birgitte

2017-01-01

Accurate assessments of exposure to nitrate in drinking water is a crucial part of epidemiological studies investigating long-term adverse human health effects. However, since drinking water nitrate measurements are usually collected for regulatory purposes, assumptions on (1) the intra-distribution system variability and (2) short-term (seasonal) concentration variability have to be made. We assess concentration variability in the distribution system of nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium, and seasonal variability in all Danish public waterworks from 2007 to 2016. Nitrate concentrations at the exit of the waterworks are highly correlated with nitrate concentrations within the distribution net or at the consumers’ taps, while nitrite and ammonium concentrations are generally lower within the net compared with the exit of the waterworks due to nitrification. However, nitrification of nitrite and ammonium in the distribution systems only results in a relatively small increase in nitrate concentrations. No seasonal variation for nitrate, nitrite, or ammonium was observed. We conclude that nitrate measurements taken at the exit of the waterworks are suitable to calculate exposures for all consumers connected to that waterworks and that sampling frequencies in the national monitoring programme are sufficient to describe temporal variations in longitudinal studies. PMID:28282914

Forest restoration treatments have subtle long-term effects on soil C and N cycling in mixed conifer forests.

PubMed

Ganzlin, Peter W; Gundale, Michael J; Becknell, Rachel E; Cleveland, Cory C

2016-07-01

Decades of fire suppression following extensive timber harvesting have left much of the forest in the intermountain western United States exceedingly dense, and forest restoration techniques (i.e., thinning and prescribed fire) are increasingly being used in an attempt to mitigate the effects of severe wildfire, to enhance tree growth and regeneration, and to stimulate soil nutrient cycling. While many of the short-term effects of forest restoration have been established, the long-term effects on soil biogeochemical and ecosystem processes are largely unknown. We assessed the effects of commonly used forest restoration treatments (thinning, burning, and thinning + burning) on nutrient cycling and other ecosystem processes 11 yr after restoration treatments were implemented in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum)/Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forest at the Lubrecht Fire and Fire Surrogates Study (FFS) site in western Montana, USA. Despite short-term (<3 yr) increases in soil inorganic nitrogen (N) pools and N cycling rates following prescribed fire, long-term soil N pools and N mineralization rates showed only subtle differences from untreated control plots. Similarly, despite a persistent positive correlation between fuels consumed in prescribed burns and several metrics of N cycling, variability in inorganic N pools decreased significantly since treatments were implemented, indicating a decline in N spatial heterogeneity through time. However, rates of net nitrification remain significantly higher in a thin + burn treatment relative to other treatments. Short-term declines in forest floor carbon (C) pools have persisted in the thin + burn treatment, but there were no significant long-term differences among treatments in extractable soil phosphorus (P). Finally, despite some short-term differences, long-term foliar nutrient concentrations, litter decomposition rates, and rates of free-living N fixation in the experimental plots were not different from control plots, suggesting nutrient cycles and ecosystem processes in temperate coniferous forests are resilient to disturbance following long periods of fire suppression. Overall, this study provides forest managers and policymakers valuable information showing that the effects of these commonly used restoration prescriptions on soil nutrient cycling are ephemeral and that use of repeated treatments (i.e., frequent fire) will be necessary to ensure continued restoration success. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Role of calcitonin gene-related peptide in cardioprotection of short-term and long-term exercise preconditioning.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Juan; Pan, Shan-Shan

2014-07-01

To examine the role of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) in cardioprotection of short-term and long-term exercise preconditioning (EP). Male Sprague-Dawley rats were, respectively, subjected to continuous intermittent treadmill training 3 days or 3 weeks as short-term or long-term EP protocols. The myocardial injury induced by isoproterenol (ISO) was performed 24 hours after short-term and long-term EP. The myocardial injury was evaluated in terms of the serum cardiac troponin levels and the hematoxylin-basic fuchsin-picric acid staining. Additionally, serum CGRP levels, CGRP expression in the dorsal root ganglion (DRG), and heart were analyzed as possible mechanisms to explain short-term and long-term EP-induced cardioprotection. Both short-term and long-term EP markedly attenuated the isoproterenol-induced myocardial ischemia with lower serum cardiac troponin levels. Short-term EP does not alter serum CGRP levels and CGRP expression in the DRG and heart. Long-term EP significantly increases serum CGRP levels and CGRP expression in the DRG and heart. The results indicate that short-term EP does not increase the synthesis and release of CGRP. Therefore, the cardioprotective effect of short-term EP does not involve CGRP adaptation. Furthermore, long-term EP increases CGRP synthesis in the DRG and promotes CGRP release in the blood and heart. Hence, CGRP may play an important role in the cardioprotective effect of long-term EP.

Impact of Pulsation Activity on the Light Curves of Symbiotic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsakova, Vladyslava I.; Andronov, Ivan L.; Chinarova, Lidia L.; Chyzhyk, Maksym S.; Andrych, Kateryna D.

2015-12-01

We used long-term visual amateur observations of several symbiotic variables for detection of periods that may be caused by pulsation. The examples of multiple periodicities are discussed individually in each case.

Brain and cognitive-behavioural development after asphyxia at term birth.

PubMed

de Haan, Michelle; Wyatt, John S; Roth, Simon; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh; Gadian, David; Mishkin, Mortimer

2006-07-01

Perinatal asphyxia occurs in approximately 1-6 per 1000 live full-term births. Different patterns of brain damage can result, though the relation of these patterns to long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome remains under investigation. The hippocampus is one brain region that can be damaged (typically not in isolation), and this site of damage has been implicated in two different long-term outcomes, cognitive memory impairment and the psychiatric disorder schizophrenia. Factors in addition to the acute episode of asphyxia likely contribute to these specific outcomes, making prediction difficult. Future studies that better document long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome, quantitatively identify patterns of brain injury over development and consider additional variables that may modulate the impact of asphyxia on cognitive and behavioural function will forward the goals of predicting long-term outcome and understanding the mechanisms by which it unfolds.

Long term X-ray variability characteristics of the narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhury, K.; Chitnis, V. R.; Rao, A. R.; Singh, K. P.; Bhattacharyya, Sudip; Dewangan, G. C.; Chakraborty, S.; Chandra, S.; Stewart, G. C.; Mukerjee, K.; Dey, R. K.

2018-05-01

We present the results of our study of the long term X-ray variability characteristics of the Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396. We use data obtained from the AstroSat satellite along with the light curves obtained from XMM-Newton and Swift-XRT. We use the 0.3 - 7.0 keV and 3 - 20 keV data, respectively, from the SXT and the LAXPC of AstroSat. The X-ray spectra in the 0.3 - 20 keV region are well fit with a model consisting of a power-law and a soft excess described by a thermal-Compton emission with a large optical depth, consistent with the earlier reported results. We have examined the X-ray light curves in the soft and hard X-ray bands of SXT and LAXPC, respectively, and find that the variability is slightly larger in the hard band. To investigate the variability characteristics of this source at different time scales, we have used X-ray light curves obtained from XMM-Newton data (200 s to 100 ks range) and Swift-XRT data (1 day to 100 day range) and find that there are evidences to suggest that the variability sharply increases at longer time scales. We argue that the mass of the black hole in RE J1034+396 is likely to be ˜3 × 106 M⊙, based on the similarity of the observed QPO to the high frequency QPO seen in the Galactic black hole binary, GRS 1915+105.

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal.

PubMed

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B; Lousada, José L; Gaspar, Maria J; Correia, Isabel E; David, Teresa S; Soares, Pedro M M; Cardoso, Rita M; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M; Gouveia, Célia M

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster's vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster's production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region.

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal

PubMed Central

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B.; Lousada, José L.; Gaspar, Maria J.; Correia, Isabel E.; David, Teresa S.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Gouveia, Célia M.

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster’s vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster’s production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region. PMID:27570527

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area.

PubMed

Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul

2018-04-19

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990-2016. Implications Statement The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time-series into: short-term, seasonal and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990-2016 at an urban site in the Greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for, by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the Greater Houston Area.

Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

PubMed

Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

2012-02-01

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

2014-12-01

Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently explained by the models if the anomalies are caused in the low temperature regions (e.g. spring in Northern Asia). However, water-driven or radiation-driven GPP anomalies lacks consistent explanation among models. Therefore, terrestrial carbon cycle models require improvement of the sensitivity of climate anomalies to carbon cycles.

The effect of hospital mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees: a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Hospitals are merging to become more cost-effective. Mergers are often complex and difficult processes with variable outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees. Methods Long-term sickness absence was analyzed among hospital employees (N = 107 209) in 57 hospitals involved in 23 mergers in Norway between 2000 and 2009. Variation in long-term sickness absence was explained through a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data with years-since-merger as the independent variable. Results We found a significant but modest effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence in the year of the merger, and in years 2, 3 and 4; analyzed by gender there was a significant effect for women, also for these years, but only in year 4 for men. However, men are less represented among the hospital workforce; this could explain the lack of significance. Conclusions Mergers has a significant effect on employee health that should be taken into consideration when deciding to merge hospitals. This study illustrates the importance of analyzing the effects of mergers over several years and the need for more detailed analyses of merger processes and of the changes that may occur as a result of such mergers. PMID:24490750

Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige

2017-12-01

Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Symmetry breaking, mixing, instability, and low-frequency variability in a minimal Lorenz-like system.

PubMed

Lucarini, Valerio; Fraedrich, Klaus

2009-08-01

Starting from the classical Saltzman two-dimensional convection equations, we derive via a severe spectral truncation a minimal 10 ODE system which includes the thermal effect of viscous dissipation. Neglecting this process leads to a dynamical system which includes a decoupled generalized Lorenz system. The consideration of this process breaks an important symmetry and couples the dynamics of fast and slow variables, with the ensuing modifications to the structural properties of the attractor and of the spectral features. When the relevant nondimensional number (Eckert number Ec) is different from zero, an additional time scale of O(Ec(-1)) is introduced in the system, as shown with standard multiscale analysis and made clear by several numerical evidences. Moreover, the system is ergodic and hyperbolic, the slow variables feature long-term memory with 1/f(3/2) power spectra, and the fast variables feature amplitude modulation. Increasing the strength of the thermal-viscous feedback has a stabilizing effect, as both the metric entropy and the Kaplan-Yorke attractor dimension decrease monotonically with Ec. The analyzed system features very rich dynamics: it overcomes some of the limitations of the Lorenz system and might have prototypical value in relevant processes in complex systems dynamics, such as the interaction between slow and fast variables, the presence of long-term memory, and the associated extreme value statistics. This analysis shows how neglecting the coupling of slow and fast variables only on the basis of scale analysis can be catastrophic. In fact, this leads to spurious invariances that affect essential dynamical properties (ergodicity, hyperbolicity) and that cause the model losing ability in describing intrinsically multiscale processes.

Long-Term Immunomodulatory Effects of a Mediterranean Diet in Adults at High Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Casas, Rosa; Sacanella, Emilio; Urpí-Sardà, Mireia; Corella, Dolores; Castañer, Olga; Lamuela-Raventos, Rosa-María; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Martínez-González, Miguel-Angel; Ros, Emilio; Estruch, Ramon

2016-09-01

The Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) has demonstrated short-term anti-inflammatory effects, but little is known about its long-term immunomodulatory properties. Our goal was to assess the long-term effects of the MedDiet on inflammatory markers related to atherogenesis in adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with the effects of a low-fat diet (LFD). We randomly assigned 165 high-risk participants (one-half men; mean age: 66 y) without overt CVD to 1 of 3 diets: a MedDiet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a MedDiet supplemented with nuts, or an LFD. Follow-up data were collected at 3 and 5 y. Repeated-measures ANOVA, adjusted for potential confounding variables, was used to evaluate changes in diet adherence, CVD risk factors, and inflammatory variables. The 2 MedDiet groups achieved a high degree of adherence to the intervention, and the LFD group had reduced energy intake from fat by 13% by 5 y. Compared with baseline, at 3 and 5 y, both MedDiet groups had significant reductions of ≥16% in plasma concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor α, and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (P ≤ 0.04), whereas there were no significant changes in the LFD group. The reductions in CD49d and CD40 expressions in T lymphocytes and monocytes at 3 y were ≥16% greater in both MedDiet groups than were the changes in the LFD group (P < 0.001) at 3 y. Compared with baseline, at 3 y, the MedDiet groups had increased HDL-cholesterol (≥8%) and decreased blood pressure (>4%) and total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride (≥8%) concentrations. At 5 y, concentrations of glucose (13%) and glycated hemoglobin (8%) had increased with the LFD. The MedDiet participants had lower cellular and plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers related to atherosclerosis at 3 and 5 y. This anti-inflammatory role of the MedDiet could explain in part the long-term cardioprotective effect of the MedDiet against CVD. This trial was registered at controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN35739639. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Near-term Forecasting of Solar Total and Direct Irradiance for Solar Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, C. N.; Riihimaki, L. D.; Berg, L. K.

2012-12-01

Integration of solar renewable energy into the power grid, like wind energy, is hindered by the variable nature of the solar resource. One challenge of the integration problem for shorter time periods is the phenomenon of "ramping events" where the electrical output of the solar power system increases or decreases significantly and rapidly over periods of minutes or less. Advance warning, of even just a few minutes, allows power system operators to compensate for the ramping. However, the ability for short-term prediction on such local "point" scales is beyond the abilities of typical model-based weather forecasting. Use of surface-based solar radiation measurements has been recognized as a likely solution for providing input for near-term (5 to 30 minute) forecasts of solar energy availability and variability. However, it must be noted that while fixed-orientation photovoltaic panel systems use the total (global) downwelling solar radiation, tracking photovoltaic and solar concentrator systems use only the direct normal component of the solar radiation. Thus even accurate near-term forecasts of total solar radiation will under many circumstances include inherent inaccuracies with respect to tracking systems due to lack of information of the direct component of the solar radiation. We will present examples and statistical analyses of solar radiation partitioning showing the differences in the behavior of the total/direct radiation with respect to the near-term forecast issue. We will present an overview of the possibility of using a network of unique new commercially available total/diffuse radiometers in conjunction with a near-real-time adaptation of the Shortwave Radiative Flux Analysis methodology (Long and Ackerman, 2000; Long et al., 2006). The results are used, in conjunction with persistence and tendency forecast techniques, to provide more accurate near-term forecasts of cloudiness, and both total and direct normal solar irradiance availability and variability. This new system could be a long term economical solution for solar energy applications.xample of SW Flux Analysis global hemispheric (light blue) and direct (yellow) clear-sky shortwave (SW) along with corresponding actual global hemispheric (blue) and direct (red) SW, and the corresponding fractional sky cover (black, right Y-axis). Note in afternoon about 40-50% of the global SW is available, yet most times there is no direct SW.

Reconstruction of erythemal UV irradiance at Hohenpeissenberg (1968-2001) considering trends of total ozone, cloudiness, and turbidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trepte, S.; Winkler, P.

2003-04-01

The global mean total column ozone amount for the period 1997-2001 was approximately 3% below the 1964-1980 average. The largest ozone decreases in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes are observed during winter-spring (˜4%), with summer-autumn decreases approximately half as large. Total ozone measured at Hohenpeissenberg, Germany (48^oN, 11^oE) shows a strong decrease by about 10% since 1968, representing the long-term downward trend over Central Europe. The main consequence of this phenomenon is the expected increase of solar ultraviolet irradiation (UV-B) reaching the Earth's surface with the known harmful effects on the biosphere. Global data records of reliable routine observations of UV irradiance are still too short for accurate estimation of long-term UV variations and trends. While direct UV mesaurements at Hohenpeissenberg are available only since 1990, the long-term development of UV-B have to be reconstructed. Besides on the amount of total ozone the UV irradiation at the ground depends also on atmospheric turbidity and cloudiness. The reconstruction method is based on statistical correlations of measured UV-B data with the influencing parameters total ozone, turbidity and cloud modification factors derived from eye-observations in connection with total solar irradiance data. These observed data allow a realistic reconstruction of the UV-B time series, since no assumption on these influencing data have to be made. A model is presented, using hourly observed spectral UV-B irradiance (1990-1998), total solar irradiance, total ozone amount (daily mean) and clouds to derive erythemal UV irradiance and daily doses at Hohenpeissenberg in the period 1968-2001. A comparison with recorded UV data shows good agreement. Due to long-term total ozone loss, peak values of erythemal UV irradiance in spring and summer at clear-sky conditions have strongly increased (+4.2%/decade in June). Mean daily doses have also increased in this season (+5.4%/decade in May) but meteorological changes like reduced sunshine duration and increased cloudiness lead to a partly compensation of the ozone-loss effect in spring and to an overcompensation in autumn, where we found a long-term decrease of the daily dose (-3.0%/decade in September). Model calculations also demonstrate large year-to-year fluctuations of UV doses induced by meteorological variability, which exceed the long-term trend of the various months significantly. Nevertheless, this investigation has shown that on a long-term time scale the daily doses develop in a different way as compared to the peak values because the reasons for ozone decline (anthropogenic CFC's) and the cloud cover (hydrological cycle changes due to greenhouse effect) are caused by different phenomena.

Flaring radio lanterns along the ridge line: long-term oscillatory motion in the jet of S5 1803+784

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kun, E.; Karouzos, M.; Gabányi, K. É.; Britzen, S.; Kurtanidze, O. M.; Gergely, L. Á.

2018-07-01

We present a detailed analysis of 30 very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) observations of the BL Lac object S5 1803+784 (z= 0.679), obtained between mean observational time 1994.67 and 2012.91 at observational frequency 15 GHz. The long-term behaviour of the jet ridge line reveals the jet experiences an oscillatory motion superposed on its helical jet kinematics on a time-scale of about 6 yr. The excess variance of the positional variability indicates the jet components being farther from the VLBI core have larger amplitude in their position variations. The fractional variability amplitude shows slight changes in 3 yrbins of the component's position. The temporal variability in the Doppler boosting of the ridge line results in jet regions behaving as flaring `radio lanterns'. We offer a qualitative scenario leading to the oscillation of the jet ridge line that utilizes the orbital motion of the jet emitter black hole due to a binary black hole companion. A correlation analysis implies composite origin of the flux variability of the jet components, emerging due to possibly both the evolving jet structure and its intrinsic variability.

Flaring radio lanterns along the ridge line: long-term oscillatory motion in the jet of S5 1803+784

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kun, E.; Karouzos, M.; Gabányi, K. É.; Britzen, S.; Kurtanidze, O. M.; Gergely, L. Á.

2018-04-01

We present a detailed analysis of 30 very long baseline interferometric observations of the BL Lac object S5 1803+784 (z = 0.679), obtained between mean observational time 1994.67 and 2012.91 at observational frequency 15 GHz. The long-term behaviour of the jet ridge line reveals the jet experiences an oscillatory motion superposed on its helical jet kinematics on a time-scale of about 6 years. The excess variance of the positional variability indicates the jet components being farther from the VLBI core have larger amplitude in their position variations. The fractional variability amplitude shows slight changes in 3-year bins of the component's position. The temporal variability in the Doppler boosting of the ridge line results in jet regions behaving as flaring "radio lanterns". We offer a qualitative scenario leading to the oscillation of the jet ridge line, that utilizes the orbital motion of the jet emitter black hole due to a binary black hole companion. A correlation analysis implies composite origin of the flux variability of the jet components, emerging due to possibly both the evolving jet-structure and its intrinsic variability.

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

PubMed

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had significantly less risk of long-term hospitalization than those of large cities. We found no influence of material and social deprivation in the long-term hospitalizations. Long-term hospitalization in psychiatry only concerns a minority of patients but represents the fifth of the total number of days of full-time hospitalization. The recent patients were significantly less exposed to the risk of having a long-term hospitalization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Effect of flood conditions on the deterioration of porous clay-based brick

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mol, L.; Tomor, A.

2017-12-01

Man-made materials represent an increasingly large proportion of geomaterials that are used to build up a rapidly expanding urbanised landscape. The deterioration of such materials is of increasing concern, in particular in light of the projected increase in storm and flood events and their associated high water levels. The effect of prolonged saturation in porous materials, man-made as well as natural, can lead to accelerated deterioration. This can be of particular concern for load-bearing structural materials, for example bridges. In this study, the effect of moisture movement has been investigated for brick masonry, as one of the most commonly used porous building materials. Saturation of brick masonry can be of particular concern for historical masonry, such as masonry arch bridges in conjunction with under increasing levels of long-term traffic loading. While flooding can lead to scour and sudden collapse of bridges, saturation can also lead to accelerated medium and long-term deterioration. A series of small-scale laboratory tests have been carried out on brick masonry to identify the effects of saturation on the material properties and changes in the rate of deterioration. Brick masonry prisms have been loaded to failure under quasi-static and long-term cyclic compression and monitored with the help of acoustic emission technique, accelerometers, linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs), permeametry and brick surface hardness measurements. Under quasi-static loading saturated samples showed significant reduction in the load capacity and increased fracture development. Under fatigue loading the number of cycles to failure reduced significantly for saturated specimens and characteristic changes in material parameters have been related to stages of fatigue deterioration. Test results indicated that increasing flood events can accelerate moisture-related deterioration in porous brick masonry.

Increased in Variability in Climatological Means and Extremes in the Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basara, J. B.; Flanagan, P. X.; Christian, J.; Christian, K.

2016-12-01

The Great Plains (GP) of North America is characterized by orthogonal gradients of temperature and precipitation extending from the Gulf of Mexico in the south to the coniferous forests of Canada to the north and are bordered on the west by the Rocky Mountains and then spread east approximately 1000 km into the interior regions of North America. As a result, significant biodiversity exists across relatively short distances within the region. However, because the gradient of precipitation is large across the GP, multiple environmental factors can lead to significant variability in temperature and precipitation at periods spanning seasonal, to interannual, to decadal scales. In addition, the GP region has shown significant coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, especially during the warm season. As a result, the GP often experiences significant hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological extremes across varying spatial and temporal scales including long-term drought, flash drought, flash flooding, and long-term pluvial periods with significant impacts to ecosystem function. Results into analyses of drought to pluvial dipole events in the GP noted that on average, over twice as many dipoles existed in the latter half of the dataset (1955-2013) relative to the first half (1896-1954). In addition an Asynchronous Difference Index (ADI) computed by determining the difference between the dates of precipitation and temperature maxima revealed two physically distinct regimes of ADI (positive and negative), with comparable shifts in the timing of both the maximum of precipitation and temperature within the GP. Time series analysis of decadal average ADI yielded moderate shifts in ADI with increased variability occurring over much of the GP region.

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444